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000
FXUS61 KPHI 301424
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS TODAY AND A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. MUCH COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER
HIGH WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL DISTURBANCE
MAY AFFECT THE AREA NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
LOW DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A STRONGER ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WAS POSITIONED OVER THE MIDWEST.

A COLD FRONT LOCATED IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AT PRESS TIME WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST...REACHING THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A DUSTING AT MOST IN MANY
LOCATIONS, BUT A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-78...COULD SEE
JUST A BIT MORE. THE MAIN STORY LATER TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD
EASTWARD. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AS MENTIONED
IN THE NEAR TERM, A WINDY ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
AND GOES THROUGH TONIGHT. MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALGORITHMS ON GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXING OF 40 KT WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE WHILE THE
WIND PROFILE FROM THE NAM ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL BE PRESENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER STRONG CAA AS THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES IN. THE DEEPER MIXING ADVERTISED BY THE GFS AND
SEVERAL SREF MEMBERS WAS FAVORED IN THIS SETUP, WHICH SUPPORTED A
WIND ADVISORY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO IN THE POCONOS TO MID TEENS
IN THE DELMARVA. COMBINED WITH THE WINDS, WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AT OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ALREADY IN EFFECT
FOR THE POCONOS WAS EXPANDED TO SUSSEX COUNTY, NJ FOR WIND CHILL
VALUES OF -10F TO -20F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO USHER COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE CWA FOR THE MORNING
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE IN THE DAY SAT AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SKY COVER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SAT AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SUNDAY.

SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PRODUCER FOR OUR AREA WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE DELMARVA MONDAY MORNING. THE MOST RECENT MODELS ARE OFFERING A
MORE NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE SYSTEM WHEN COMPARED TO THU`S MODEL
RUNS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
DELMARVA AND SE PA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WHOLE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
WHILE SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE...SOME SLEET WILL OCCUR
OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ LATER SUN NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL ACCUMS LOOK TO BE 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE
PA BERKS COUNTY--LEHIGH VALLEY--NRN NJ  REGION WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH.  SLEET AND RAIN (FAR SOUTH DEL) WILL REDUCE
THE ACCUMS OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ AREAS. IF THE TRACK
CONTINUES A NORTHWARD TREND...THEN MORE RAIN WILL MIX IN OVER THE
SRN FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIP WILL END AS SNOW ONCE THE LOW SWEEPS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING IN COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. HWO PRODUCT
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WINTRY
WEATHER EVENT. FUTURE FCSTS WILL OFFER BETTER SNOWFALL FCST AND
POSSIBLE HEADLINES...SO CHECK BACK LATER TODAY AND SAT/SUN FOR
UPDATES.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR WILL AFFECT THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...SO READINGS
AGAIN WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MORE WIND CHILL
HEADLINES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MODERATING TEMPS WED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...
THE 00Z GFS AND OLDER 12Z EC MODELS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER H5 TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF IT. BOTH OF THESE MODELS ALSO SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. THE
LATEST 00Z EC SHOWED THE LOW ALSO...BUT PUSHED IT OFFSHORE THU NGT
INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHER QPF ONLY NEAR THE COAST. WE HAVE GONE ALONG
WITH THE WPC AND RAISED POPS UP A BIT FOR THESE PERIODS. THEY ARE
STILL ONLY IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS WILL HAVE VFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR FROM TIME
TO TIME BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...ESPECIALLY AT OUR
NORTHERN TAF SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A STRATOCU DECK THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN 2500-4000 KFT. THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE WOULD
YIELD MVFR CIGS. LOW CLOUDS WILL START TO SCT OUT TOWARD SUNSET.

NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THRUOUT THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR
20 KT THIS AFTN AND TNGT. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 30 KT THRU
ABOUT MID AFTN BUT THEN INCREASE TO 35-40 KT LATE IN THE DAY AND
TNGT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUN AFTERNOON...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY.
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR. SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP.
    ACCUMULATING SNOW AT PHL.
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUE...IMPROVING CONDITION MON EVE. VFR MON NGT
    THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT AT
9 AM THIS MORNING. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 25-30 KT THIS MORNING,
INCREASING TO 35-40 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD TO 5-8 FT BY TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...GALES DIMINISH SAT. SCA CONDITIONS EARLY SAT NIGHT.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. SNOW AND SLEET LATE SUN NIGHT.
MON AND MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUE...SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN EARLY THEN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...KLEIN/MIKETTA
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/MIKETTA/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 301424
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS TODAY AND A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. MUCH COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER
HIGH WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL DISTURBANCE
MAY AFFECT THE AREA NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
LOW DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A STRONGER ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WAS POSITIONED OVER THE MIDWEST.

A COLD FRONT LOCATED IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AT PRESS TIME WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST...REACHING THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A DUSTING AT MOST IN MANY
LOCATIONS, BUT A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-78...COULD SEE
JUST A BIT MORE. THE MAIN STORY LATER TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES. GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD
EASTWARD. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AS MENTIONED
IN THE NEAR TERM, A WINDY ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
AND GOES THROUGH TONIGHT. MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALGORITHMS ON GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXING OF 40 KT WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE WHILE THE
WIND PROFILE FROM THE NAM ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL BE PRESENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER STRONG CAA AS THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES IN. THE DEEPER MIXING ADVERTISED BY THE GFS AND
SEVERAL SREF MEMBERS WAS FAVORED IN THIS SETUP, WHICH SUPPORTED A
WIND ADVISORY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO IN THE POCONOS TO MID TEENS
IN THE DELMARVA. COMBINED WITH THE WINDS, WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AT OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ALREADY IN EFFECT
FOR THE POCONOS WAS EXPANDED TO SUSSEX COUNTY, NJ FOR WIND CHILL
VALUES OF -10F TO -20F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO USHER COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE CWA FOR THE MORNING
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE IN THE DAY SAT AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SKY COVER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SAT AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SUNDAY.

SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PRODUCER FOR OUR AREA WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE DELMARVA MONDAY MORNING. THE MOST RECENT MODELS ARE OFFERING A
MORE NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE SYSTEM WHEN COMPARED TO THU`S MODEL
RUNS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
DELMARVA AND SE PA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WHOLE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
WHILE SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE...SOME SLEET WILL OCCUR
OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ LATER SUN NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL ACCUMS LOOK TO BE 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE
PA BERKS COUNTY--LEHIGH VALLEY--NRN NJ  REGION WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH.  SLEET AND RAIN (FAR SOUTH DEL) WILL REDUCE
THE ACCUMS OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ AREAS. IF THE TRACK
CONTINUES A NORTHWARD TREND...THEN MORE RAIN WILL MIX IN OVER THE
SRN FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIP WILL END AS SNOW ONCE THE LOW SWEEPS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING IN COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. HWO PRODUCT
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WINTRY
WEATHER EVENT. FUTURE FCSTS WILL OFFER BETTER SNOWFALL FCST AND
POSSIBLE HEADLINES...SO CHECK BACK LATER TODAY AND SAT/SUN FOR
UPDATES.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR WILL AFFECT THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...SO READINGS
AGAIN WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MORE WIND CHILL
HEADLINES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MODERATING TEMPS WED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...
THE 00Z GFS AND OLDER 12Z EC MODELS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER H5 TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF IT. BOTH OF THESE MODELS ALSO SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. THE
LATEST 00Z EC SHOWED THE LOW ALSO...BUT PUSHED IT OFFSHORE THU NGT
INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHER QPF ONLY NEAR THE COAST. WE HAVE GONE ALONG
WITH THE WPC AND RAISED POPS UP A BIT FOR THESE PERIODS. THEY ARE
STILL ONLY IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS WILL HAVE VFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR FROM TIME
TO TIME BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...ESPECIALLY AT OUR
NORTHERN TAF SITES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A STRATOCU DECK THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN 2500-4000 KFT. THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE WOULD
YIELD MVFR CIGS. LOW CLOUDS WILL START TO SCT OUT TOWARD SUNSET.

NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THRUOUT THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR
20 KT THIS AFTN AND TNGT. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 30 KT THRU
ABOUT MID AFTN BUT THEN INCREASE TO 35-40 KT LATE IN THE DAY AND
TNGT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUN AFTERNOON...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY.
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR. SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP.
    ACCUMULATING SNOW AT PHL.
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUE...IMPROVING CONDITION MON EVE. VFR MON NGT
    THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT AT
9 AM THIS MORNING. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 25-30 KT THIS MORNING,
INCREASING TO 35-40 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD TO 5-8 FT BY TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...GALES DIMINISH SAT. SCA CONDITIONS EARLY SAT NIGHT.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. SNOW AND SLEET LATE SUN NIGHT.
MON AND MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUE...SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN EARLY THEN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...KLEIN/MIKETTA
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/MIKETTA/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 300930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS TODAY AND A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. MUCH COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER
HIGH WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL DISTURBANCE
MAY AFFECT THE AREA NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
LOW DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A STRONGER ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WAS POSITIONED OVER THE MIDWEST.

THREE AREAS OF PRECIP WERE NOTED ON THE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR AT 430
AM, EACH ASSOCIATED WITH SEPARATE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THERE
WAS VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES THAT HAS LINGERED ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-80 FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE SECOND AREA TO NOTE WAS A BAND OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO TO THE EAST OF I-95. HIRES MODELS HAVE THIS AREA OF PRECIP SHIELD
BLOSSOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY THERE WAS AN AREA OF
SNOW BACK TO THE WEST OVER STATE COLLEGE AND PITTSBURGH. THEREFORE,
EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW (MIXING WITH RAIN TOWARD THE COAST) THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT PICK UP MUCH MORE
THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL (AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE MEASURABLE
SNOW). THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NJ MAY GET AN ADDITIONAL INCH
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WHERE THE SNOW WILL BE THE MOST PERSISTENT DURING
THE MORNING.

THE OTHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY, MARKING THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC
AIR. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER BEHIND THIS FRONT AS LAPSE RATES
BECOME VERY STEEP AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. A WIND
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA STARTING AT 4 PM
TODAY. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST NJ ARE MOST
LIKELY TO GET WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH INITIALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD
EASTWARD. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AS MENTIONED
IN THE NEAR TERM, A WINDY ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
AND GOES THROUGH TONIGHT. MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALGORITHMS ON GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXING OF 40 KT WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE WHILE THE
WIND PROFILE FROM THE NAM ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL BE PRESENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER STRONG CAA AS THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES IN. THE DEEPER MIXING ADVERTISED BY THE GFS AND
SEVERAL SREF MEMBERS WAS FAVORED IN THIS SETUP, WHICH SUPPORTED A
WIND ADVISORY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO IN THE POCONOS TO MID TEENS
IN THE DELMARVA. COMBINED WITH THE WINDS, WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AT OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ALREADY IN EFFECT
FOR THE POCONOS WAS EXPANDED TO SUSSEX COUNTY, NJ FOR WIND CHILL
VALUES OF -10F TO -20F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO USHER COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE CWA FOR THE MORNING
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE IN THE DAY SAT AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SKY COVER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SAT AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SUNDAY.

SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PRODUCER FOR OUR AREA WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE DELMARVA MONDAY MORNING. THE MOST RECENT MODELS ARE OFFERING A
MORE NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE SYSTEM WHEN COMPARED TO THU`S MODEL
RUNS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
DELMARVA AND SE PA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WHOLE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
WHILE SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE...SOME SLEET WILL OCCUR
OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ LATER SUN NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL ACCUMS LOOK TO BE 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE
PA BERKS COUNTY--LEHIGH VALLEY--NRN NJ  REGION WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH.  SLEET AND RAIN (FAR SOUTH DEL) WILL REDUCE
THE ACCUMS OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ AREAS. IF THE TRACK
CONTINUES A NORTHWARD TREND...THEN MORE RAIN WILL MIX IN OVER THE
SRN FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIP WILL END AS SNOW ONCE THE LOW SWEEPS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING IN COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. HWO PRODUCT
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WINTRY
WEATHER EVENT. FUTURE FCSTS WILL OFFER BETTER SNOWFALL FCST AND
POSSIBLE HEADLINES...SO CHECK BACK LATER TODAY AND SAT/SUN FOR
UPDATES.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR WILL AFFECT THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...SO READINGS
AGAIN WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MORE WIND CHILL
HEADLINES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MODERATING TEMPS WED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...
THE 00Z GFS AND OLDER 12Z EC MODELS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER H5 TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF IT. BOTH OF THESE MODELS ALSO SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. THE
LATEST 00Z EC SHOWED THE LOW ALSO...BUT PUSHED IT OFFSHORE THU NGT
INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHER QPF ONLY NEAR THE COAST. WE HAVE GONE ALONG
WITH THE WPC AND RAISED POPS UP A BIT FOR THESE PERIODS. THEY ARE
STILL ONLY IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS WILL HAVE VFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE SEVERAL AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA THRU ABOUT 15Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBY TO MVFR MAY
OCCUR AT JUST ABOUT ANY OF THE AIRPORTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
STRATOCU DECK THAT DEVELOPS BETWEEN 2500-4000 KFT. THE LOWER END OF
THAT RANGE WOULD YIELD MVFR CIGS. LOW CLOUDS WILL START TO SCT OUT
TOWARD SUNSET.

NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THRUOUT THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR
20 KT THIS AFTN AND TNGT. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 30 KT THRU
ABOUT MID AFTN BUT THEN INCREASE TO 35-40 KT LATE IN THE DAY AND
TNGT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUN AFTERNOON...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY.
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR. SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP.
    ACCUMULATING SNOW AT PHL.
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUE...IMPROVING CONDITION MON EVE. VFR MON NGT
    THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT AT
9 AM THIS MORNING. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 25-30 KT THIS MORNING,
INCREASING TO 35-40 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD TO 5-8 FT BY TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...GALES DIMINISH SAT. SCA CONDITIONS EARLY SAT NIGHT.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. SNOW AND SLEET LATE SUN NIGHT.
MON AND MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUE...SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN EARLY THEN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS TODAY AND A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. MUCH COLDER AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER
HIGH WILL MOVE IN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL DISTURBANCE
MAY AFFECT THE AREA NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST
NORTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE
LOW DOWN THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A STRONGER ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WAS POSITIONED OVER THE MIDWEST.

THREE AREAS OF PRECIP WERE NOTED ON THE REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR AT 430
AM, EACH ASSOCIATED WITH SEPARATE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THERE
WAS VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES THAT HAS LINGERED ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-80 FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE SECOND AREA TO NOTE WAS A BAND OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
SO TO THE EAST OF I-95. HIRES MODELS HAVE THIS AREA OF PRECIP SHIELD
BLOSSOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY THERE WAS AN AREA OF
SNOW BACK TO THE WEST OVER STATE COLLEGE AND PITTSBURGH. THEREFORE,
EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW (MIXING WITH RAIN TOWARD THE COAST) THROUGH A
GOOD PART OF THE MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT PICK UP MUCH MORE
THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOWFALL (AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE MEASURABLE
SNOW). THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NJ MAY GET AN ADDITIONAL INCH
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WHERE THE SNOW WILL BE THE MOST PERSISTENT DURING
THE MORNING.

THE OTHER STORY TODAY WILL BE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY, MARKING THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC
AIR. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER BEHIND THIS FRONT AS LAPSE RATES
BECOME VERY STEEP AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. A WIND
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA STARTING AT 4 PM
TODAY. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST NJ ARE MOST
LIKELY TO GET WIND GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH INITIALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD
EASTWARD. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. AS MENTIONED
IN THE NEAR TERM, A WINDY ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
AND GOES THROUGH TONIGHT. MOMENTUM TRANSFER ALGORITHMS ON GFS BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXING OF 40 KT WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE WHILE THE
WIND PROFILE FROM THE NAM ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL BE PRESENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER STRONG CAA AS THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS MOVES IN. THE DEEPER MIXING ADVERTISED BY THE GFS AND
SEVERAL SREF MEMBERS WAS FAVORED IN THIS SETUP, WHICH SUPPORTED A
WIND ADVISORY.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO IN THE POCONOS TO MID TEENS
IN THE DELMARVA. COMBINED WITH THE WINDS, WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AT OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THAT WAS ALREADY IN EFFECT
FOR THE POCONOS WAS EXPANDED TO SUSSEX COUNTY, NJ FOR WIND CHILL
VALUES OF -10F TO -20F.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO USHER COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SOME 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE CWA FOR THE MORNING
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY LATE IN THE DAY SAT AS THE HIGH
CRESTS OVER THE AREA. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SKY COVER...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SAT AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SUNDAY.

SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PRODUCER FOR OUR AREA WILL ARRIVE FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE DELMARVA MONDAY MORNING. THE MOST RECENT MODELS ARE OFFERING A
MORE NORTHWARD TREND WITH THE SYSTEM WHEN COMPARED TO THU`S MODEL
RUNS. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN SUNDAY AND SNOW WILL ARRIVE OVER THE
DELMARVA AND SE PA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
OVERSPREAD THE WHOLE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
WHILE SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE...SOME SLEET WILL OCCUR
OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ LATER SUN NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL ACCUMS LOOK TO BE 4 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE SE
PA BERKS COUNTY--LEHIGH VALLEY--NRN NJ  REGION WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH.  SLEET AND RAIN (FAR SOUTH DEL) WILL REDUCE
THE ACCUMS OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ AREAS. IF THE TRACK
CONTINUES A NORTHWARD TREND...THEN MORE RAIN WILL MIX IN OVER THE
SRN FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIP WILL END AS SNOW ONCE THE LOW SWEEPS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING IN COLDER AIR BEHIND IT. HWO PRODUCT
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WINTRY
WEATHER EVENT. FUTURE FCSTS WILL OFFER BETTER SNOWFALL FCST AND
POSSIBLE HEADLINES...SO CHECK BACK LATER TODAY AND SAT/SUN FOR
UPDATES.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH COLD AIR WILL AFFECT THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUE WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S...SO READINGS
AGAIN WILL BE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MORE WIND CHILL
HEADLINES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MODERATING TEMPS WED WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...
THE 00Z GFS AND OLDER 12Z EC MODELS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER H5 TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF IT. BOTH OF THESE MODELS ALSO SHOW THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVING UP THE EAST COAST. THE
LATEST 00Z EC SHOWED THE LOW ALSO...BUT PUSHED IT OFFSHORE THU NGT
INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHER QPF ONLY NEAR THE COAST. WE HAVE GONE ALONG
WITH THE WPC AND RAISED POPS UP A BIT FOR THESE PERIODS. THEY ARE
STILL ONLY IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS WILL HAVE VFR FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE SEVERAL AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA THRU ABOUT 15Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED VSBY TO MVFR MAY
OCCUR AT JUST ABOUT ANY OF THE AIRPORTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
STRATOCU DECK THAT DEVELOPS BETWEEN 2500-4000 KFT. THE LOWER END OF
THAT RANGE WOULD YIELD MVFR CIGS. LOW CLOUDS WILL START TO SCT OUT
TOWARD SUNSET.

NW WINDS WILL INCREASE THRUOUT THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR
20 KT THIS AFTN AND TNGT. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE AOB 30 KT THRU
ABOUT MID AFTN BUT THEN INCREASE TO 35-40 KT LATE IN THE DAY AND
TNGT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR WITH WINDY CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUN AFTERNOON...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY.
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR. SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP.
    ACCUMULATING SNOW AT PHL.
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUE...IMPROVING CONDITION MON EVE. VFR MON NGT
    THRU TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE MARINE HEADLINES. GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT AT
9 AM THIS MORNING. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 25-30 KT THIS MORNING,
INCREASING TO 35-40 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
ALSO BUILD TO 5-8 FT BY TONIGHT. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT AND SAT NIGHT...GALES DIMINISH SAT. SCA CONDITIONS EARLY SAT NIGHT.
SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. SNOW AND SLEET LATE SUN NIGHT.
MON AND MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUE...SCA SEAS ON THE OCEAN EARLY THEN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 300300
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1000 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT STILL
AFFECT THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. THE AXIS OF
THE TROUGH SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT, ALONG WITH MUCH
OF THE FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE SOME DRYING IS
EXPECTED FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES, LIGHT SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED TO LINGER IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BEYOND MIDNIGHT.

A SECOND MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS IT NEARS OUR REGION, ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD. WE ARE EXPECTING A
SECOND SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW AT THAT TIME, WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS THAN THIS EVENING`S SNOWFALL.

WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SNOWFALL TOTAL MAP FOR
THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE GENERAL IDEA OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA, AND
LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO APPEAR REASONABLE
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY COLD FRONTAL RELATED PCPN SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE THE END OF PCPN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. IN FACT
SOME OF OUR WINDEX/SNOW SQUALL TOOLS ARE GIVING THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR CWA THE CHANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE OLDER WINDEX
PROCEDURES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE SUBDUED BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF EVEN
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND NO REAL FOCUSING BOUNDARY OR CAPES ABOVE
70J. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE THE CAP HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. FOR NOW WE HAVE PUT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AND SEE HOW THE GUIDANCE PROGRESSES.

SNOW SHOWERS OR NOT, THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WE ARE APPROACHING WIND ADVY CRITERIA
LATE IN THE DAY AS MIXING BECOMES DEEPER. BECAUSE WE ARE NOT DEEP
INTO THE CRITERIA AND PMDHMD RECOMMENDED THAT THE NAM/WRF IS TOO
TUCKED INTO THE COAST WITH THE SFC LOW, WE HELD OFF WITH ISSUING
IT FOR NOW. THE KATABATIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
TEMPS FOR A WHILE AND GIVEN A RELATIVELY HIGH START, WE WERE AT
THE HIGH END FOR MAX TEMPS. NOT THAT IT WILL FEEL WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
POCONOS AREAS WHERE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL FILTER
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO OUR WEST. WINDS COULD GUST 35-40 MPH DURING FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR ALMOST EVERYWHERE, WITH THE
POCONOS -15 TO -20. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
CARBON AND MONROE SINCE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE
ADVISORY RANGE. ELSEWHERE, WIND CHILLS AS OF NOW ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL JUST SHORT.

SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AND COLD, BUT WIND CHILLS WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOME AS TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY. DRY
WEATHER IS CONTINUED TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTUAL FRONT SHOULD BE DRY AS IT
DIPS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE DAY, AND MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORT WAVE ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW AS IT PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE LOW BEING TO OUR SOUTH, AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH, IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY, FOR MOST, IF NOT
ALL OF OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF
LOOKING TO RECEIVE THE MOST. WE MAY RUN INTO AN INSTANCE WHERE
EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE MORE QPF BUT LOWER RATIOS, AND
NORTHERN AREAS HAVING LESS QPF AND HIGHER RATIOS, AND IN BETWEEN
HAVING A LITTLE OF BOTH. AS USUAL, WE`LL REFINE SNOW AMOUNTS IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. VERY COLD AIR, NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME AREAS, ONCE AGAIN FILTERS DOWN INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN INTO THE REGION AGAIN. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS WHEN THE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND AND IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILLS TO FALL WELL BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD END UP BEING MOSTLY SNOW
WITH THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR OVERNIGHT
AT KRDG, KABE AND KTTN WITH PERIODS OF SNOW. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF IFR, AS WELL.

MEANWHILE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KPNE, KPHL, KILG,
KMIV AND KACY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN ABOUT
0800Z AND 1200Z COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO 4000 FEET OR GREATER AT ALL
EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES AROUND 1200Z TO 1300Z ON FRIDAY AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW COMES TO AN END. THE VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE TOWARD
EVENING.

A GENERAL SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
BECOME WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR DAYBREAK. A STRONG COLD FRONT
SHOULD ARRIVE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN ITS
WAKE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE EVENING
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR EARLY, MVFR POSSIBLE DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING CONDITIONS TO IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY EARLY, IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN VFR
BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EARLY, BECOMING NORTHWEST BY
AFTERNOON AROUND 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE START OF THE GALE WARNING ON
FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE GRADIENT
AND CONSEQUENTLY THE SEAS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH JUST
BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED TONIGHT, WE OPTED TO SINGLE
HEADLINE THIS PACKAGE AND WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE MWW. GALE
CONDITIONS BECOMING LIKELIER AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS DROP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BY EVENING AND MAY DROP BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI/IOVINO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300300
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1000 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT STILL
AFFECT THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS PASSING OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. THE AXIS OF
THE TROUGH SHOULD BE TO OUR NORTHEAST BY MIDNIGHT, ALONG WITH MUCH
OF THE FIRST BATCH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE SOME DRYING IS
EXPECTED FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES, LIGHT SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED TO LINGER IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES BEYOND MIDNIGHT.

A SECOND MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK. AS IT NEARS OUR REGION, ANOTHER AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVERHEAD. WE ARE EXPECTING A
SECOND SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW AT THAT TIME, WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS THAN THIS EVENING`S SNOWFALL.

WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SNOWFALL TOTAL MAP FOR
THE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE GENERAL IDEA OF 1
TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA, AND
LESS THAN AN INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH CONTINUES TO APPEAR REASONABLE
BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY COLD FRONTAL RELATED PCPN SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE THE END OF PCPN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. IN FACT
SOME OF OUR WINDEX/SNOW SQUALL TOOLS ARE GIVING THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR CWA THE CHANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE OLDER WINDEX
PROCEDURES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE SUBDUED BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF EVEN
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND NO REAL FOCUSING BOUNDARY OR CAPES ABOVE
70J. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE THE CAP HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. FOR NOW WE HAVE PUT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AND SEE HOW THE GUIDANCE PROGRESSES.

SNOW SHOWERS OR NOT, THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WE ARE APPROACHING WIND ADVY CRITERIA
LATE IN THE DAY AS MIXING BECOMES DEEPER. BECAUSE WE ARE NOT DEEP
INTO THE CRITERIA AND PMDHMD RECOMMENDED THAT THE NAM/WRF IS TOO
TUCKED INTO THE COAST WITH THE SFC LOW, WE HELD OFF WITH ISSUING
IT FOR NOW. THE KATABATIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
TEMPS FOR A WHILE AND GIVEN A RELATIVELY HIGH START, WE WERE AT
THE HIGH END FOR MAX TEMPS. NOT THAT IT WILL FEEL WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
POCONOS AREAS WHERE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL FILTER
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO OUR WEST. WINDS COULD GUST 35-40 MPH DURING FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR ALMOST EVERYWHERE, WITH THE
POCONOS -15 TO -20. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
CARBON AND MONROE SINCE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE
ADVISORY RANGE. ELSEWHERE, WIND CHILLS AS OF NOW ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL JUST SHORT.

SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AND COLD, BUT WIND CHILLS WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOME AS TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY. DRY
WEATHER IS CONTINUED TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTUAL FRONT SHOULD BE DRY AS IT
DIPS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE DAY, AND MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORT WAVE ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW AS IT PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE LOW BEING TO OUR SOUTH, AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH, IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY, FOR MOST, IF NOT
ALL OF OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF
LOOKING TO RECEIVE THE MOST. WE MAY RUN INTO AN INSTANCE WHERE
EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE MORE QPF BUT LOWER RATIOS, AND
NORTHERN AREAS HAVING LESS QPF AND HIGHER RATIOS, AND IN BETWEEN
HAVING A LITTLE OF BOTH. AS USUAL, WE`LL REFINE SNOW AMOUNTS IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. VERY COLD AIR, NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME AREAS, ONCE AGAIN FILTERS DOWN INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN INTO THE REGION AGAIN. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS WHEN THE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND AND IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILLS TO FALL WELL BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD END UP BEING MOSTLY SNOW
WITH THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR OVERNIGHT
AT KRDG, KABE AND KTTN WITH PERIODS OF SNOW. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF IFR, AS WELL.

MEANWHILE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KPNE, KPHL, KILG,
KMIV AND KACY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN ABOUT
0800Z AND 1200Z COULD BRING A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT TO 4000 FEET OR GREATER AT ALL
EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES AROUND 1200Z TO 1300Z ON FRIDAY AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW COMES TO AN END. THE VFR CEILINGS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE TOWARD
EVENING.

A GENERAL SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
BECOME WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR DAYBREAK. A STRONG COLD FRONT
SHOULD ARRIVE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IN ITS
WAKE. SUSTAINED SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE EVENING
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR EARLY, MVFR POSSIBLE DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING CONDITIONS TO IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY EARLY, IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN VFR
BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EARLY, BECOMING NORTHWEST BY
AFTERNOON AROUND 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE START OF THE GALE WARNING ON
FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE GRADIENT
AND CONSEQUENTLY THE SEAS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH JUST
BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED TONIGHT, WE OPTED TO SINGLE
HEADLINE THIS PACKAGE AND WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE MWW. GALE
CONDITIONS BECOMING LIKELIER AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS DROP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BY EVENING AND MAY DROP BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI/IOVINO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 292315
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
615 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT STILL
AFFECT THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY GOOD. AT 500MB
KILZ WINDS LOOKED OFF BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 850MB TEMPS IF
ANYTHING WERE INITIALIZED 1C TOO WARM AROUND OUR REGION, IT GETS
COLDER AT 925MB WITH A 1 TO 2C WARM BIAS. ACAR SOUNDINGS AT PHL
ARE ALL STILL BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. 12Z MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED
PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB.

THE ECMWF VERIFIED THE BEST WITH ITS 6HR QPF FORECAST. GIVEN IT
AND THE CAN GGEM ARE IN THE COMPROMISE POSN BETWEEN THE GFS WHICH
IS MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN AND THE MESOSCALE MODELS THAT LEAVE THE
I95 CORRIDOR SEWD HIGH AND DRY, WE HAVE OPTED FOR THE FORMER.

A SUB ADVISORY ONE-TWO PCPN PUNCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR CWA
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. ONE TO THREE
INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WAS KEPT FROM A READING PA - TRENTON
NJ - NEW BRUNSWICK NJ LINE NORTHWESTWARD. I95 CORRIDOR WAS KEPT
UNDER AN INCH AND JUST A COATING POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THE FIRST PCPN SHOT IS TIED TO A SHORT WAVE AND HAS THE BEST WAA
AS WELL AS MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE PREDICTED. THIS LOOKS LIKE A
QUICK 1 TO 3 HR SHOT. IN SPITE OF PCPN FIELD DIFFERENCES, THE
EVENING DEEP OMEGA BETWEEN THE WRF-NMM AND GFS ARE QUITE SIMILAR.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SIDING WITH THE DRIER WRF-NMMB COLLAPSING THE
PCPN BEFORE IT GETS TO PHL. BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION WAS SOUTH
OF THEIR 6HR PREDICTIONS. WE WERE MORE BULLISH WITH POPS ALONG THE
MD EASTERN SHORE AS WELL INTO THE I95 CORRIDOR.

AS FOR PTYPE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE SO DRY BELOW 700MB THAT
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY WILL TAKE PTYPE TO SNOW POSSIBLY
IN ALL PLACES. ARE SEEING SOME SLEET (SNOW PELLETS?) IN
OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST. NON-FREEZING RAIN PTYPE SEEMS MOST
CONFIDENT AROUND AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR BECAUSE
OF THE EVAP COOLING POWER OF THIS DRY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE OVER
OUR CWA. IN THE REST OF OUR CWA, GIVEN THAT INITIALIZED 925MBS
WERE TOO WARM, FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT EDGE ABOVE 3C SHOULD EVAP
COOL BELOW AS SNOW STARTS FALLING. THIS GIVES SOUNDINGS THERE MORE
THE ICE PELLET LOOK TO IT AND IF INTENSITIES ARE EXTREMELY LIGHT
POSSIBLY SOME RAIN WAY SOUTH. WHILE THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN
SOUTHEAST IS NOT ZERO, IT REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
A COUPLE OF FACTORS ARE ON OUR SIDE, SURFACE ROAD TEMPS HAVE
RESPONDED TO AROUND 40 TODAY IN DE AND AIR TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FALL MUCH BELOW IF TO FREEZING THIS EVENING AS CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY HERE. LASTLY MOST ROADWAYS ARE HEAVILY SALTED AND ARE NOT
STARTING FROM A CLEAN SLATE. REGARDLESS WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS EVENING.

WHERE POPS ARE LIKELY WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN THE PCPN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR FAR
NORTH.

THEN LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RE-ENERGIZE. THIS IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR
CWA.

TEMPERATURES. BECAUSE OF THE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
CLOUDINESS, THEY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IF NOT RISE
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AFTER THE INITIAL SHOT OF PCPN. WE ARE HIGHER
THAN STAT GUIDANCE WITH MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY COLD FRONTAL RELATED PCPN SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE THE END OF PCPN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. IN FACT
SOME OF OUR WINDEX/SNOW SQUALL TOOLS ARE GIVING THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF OUR CWA THE CHANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE OLDER WINDEX
PROCEDURES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE SUBDUED BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF EVEN
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND NO REAL FOCUSING BOUNDARY OR CAPES ABOVE
70J. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE THE CAP HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. FOR NOW WE HAVE PUT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AND SEE HOW THE GUIDANCE PROGRESSES.

SNOW SHOWERS OR NOT, THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WE ARE APPROACHING WIND ADVY CRITERIA
LATE IN THE DAY AS MIXING BECOMES DEEPER. BECAUSE WE ARE NOT DEEP
INTO THE CRITERIA AND PMDHMD RECOMMENDED THAT THE NAM/WRF IS TOO
TUCKED INTO THE COAST WITH THE SFC LOW, WE HELD OFF WITH ISSUING
IT FOR NOW. THE KATABATIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN
TEMPS FOR A WHILE AND GIVEN A RELATIVELY HIGH START, WE WERE AT
THE HIGH END FOR MAX TEMPS. NOT THAT IT WILL FEEL WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE ACROSS THE
POCONOS AREAS WHERE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL FILTER
DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO OUR WEST. WINDS COULD GUST 35-40 MPH DURING FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND STRONG
WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR ALMOST EVERYWHERE, WITH THE
POCONOS -15 TO -20. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
CARBON AND MONROE SINCE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO THE
ADVISORY RANGE. ELSEWHERE, WIND CHILLS AS OF NOW ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL JUST SHORT.

SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AND COLD, BUT WIND CHILLS WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOME AS TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY. DRY
WEATHER IS CONTINUED TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTUAL FRONT SHOULD BE DRY AS IT
DIPS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE DAY, AND MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORT WAVE ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW AS IT PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE LOW BEING TO OUR SOUTH, AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH, IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY, FOR MOST, IF NOT
ALL OF OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF
LOOKING TO RECEIVE THE MOST. WE MAY RUN INTO AN INSTANCE WHERE
EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE MORE QPF BUT LOWER RATIOS, AND
NORTHERN AREAS HAVING LESS QPF AND HIGHER RATIOS, AND IN BETWEEN
HAVING A LITTLE OF BOTH. AS USUAL, WE`LL REFINE SNOW AMOUNTS IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. VERY COLD AIR, NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME AREAS, ONCE AGAIN FILTERS DOWN INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN INTO THE REGION AGAIN. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS WHEN THE HIGH STARTS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND AND IT WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILLS TO FALL WELL BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD END UP BEING MOSTLY SNOW
WITH THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING BECOMING IFR/MVFR IN SNOW FROM THE PHL METRO AREA
TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS NWWD. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN MIXED PCPN AT
KMIV AND KACY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR LATER IN THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
MVFR AGAIN AS SNOW SHOWERS PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE NORTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. THERE MIGHT
EVEN BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
BECOME WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY MORNING. VFR. A LIKELY STRATOCU DECK CIG AROUND 4K. WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS FOR NOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE EVENING
AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR EARLY, MVFR POSSIBLE DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING CONDITIONS TO IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY EARLY, IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN VFR
BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EARLY, BECOMING NORTHWEST BY
AFTERNOON AROUND 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE START OF THE GALE WARNING ON
FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE GRADIENT
AND CONSEQUENTLY THE SEAS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH JUST
BORDERLINE SCA CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED TONIGHT, WE OPTED TO SINGLE
HEADLINE THIS PACKAGE AND WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE MWW. GALE
CONDITIONS BECOMING LIKELIER AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS DROP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BY EVENING AND MAY DROP BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
LIKELY...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI/IOVINO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON/IOVINO
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 292100
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AND PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT STILL AFFECT THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY GOOD. AT 500MB
KILZ WINDS LOOKED OFF BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 850MB TEMPS IF
ANYTHING WERE INITIALIZED 1C TOO WARM AROUND OUR REGION, IT GETS
COLDER AT 925MB WITH A 1 TO 2C WARM BIAS. ACAR SOUNDINGS AT PHL ARE
ALL STILL BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. 12Z MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED PLENTY OF DRY
AIR BELOW 700MB.

THE ECMWF VERIFIED THE BEST WITH ITS 6HR QPF FORECAST. GIVEN IT AND
THE CAN GGEM ARE IN THE COMPROMISE POSN BETWEEN THE GFS WHICH IS
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN AND THE MESOSCALE MODELS THAT LEAVE THE I95
CORRIDOR SEWD HIGH AND DRY, WE HAVE OPTED FOR THE FORMER.

A SUB ADVISORY ONE-TWO PCPN PUNCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR CWA EARLY
THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  ONE TO THREE INCHES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WAS KEPT FROM A READING PA - TRENTON NJ - NEW
BRUNSWICK NJ LINE NORTHWESTWARD. I95 CORRIDOR WAS KEPT UNDER AN INCH
AND JUST A COATING POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THE FIRST PCPN SHOT IS TIED TO A SHORT WAVE AND HAS THE BEST WAA
AS WELL AS MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE PREDICTED. THIS LOOKS LIKE A
QUICK 1 TO 3 HR SHOT. IN SPITE OF PCPN FIELD DIFFERENCES, THE
EVENING DEEP OMEGA BETWEEN THE WRF-NMM AND GFS ARE QUITE SIMILAR.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SIDING WITH THE DRIER WRF-NMMB COLLAPSING THE
PCPN BEFORE IT GETS TO PHL. BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION WAS SOUTH OF
THEIR 6HR PREDICTIONS. WE WERE MORE BULLISH WITH POPS ALONG THE MD
EASTERN SHORE AS WELL INTO THE I95 CORRIDOR.

AS FOR PTYPE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE SO DRY BELOW 700MB THAT
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY WILL TAKE PTYPE TO SNOW POSSIBLY IN
ALL PLACES. ARE SEEING SOME SLEET (SNOW PELLETS?) IN OBSERVATIONS TO
OUR WEST. NON-FREEZING RAIN PTYPE SEEMS MOST CONFIDENT AROUND AND TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR BECAUSE OF THE EVAP COOLING POWER
OF THIS DRY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. IN THE REST OF OUR
CWA, GIVEN THAT INITIALIZED 925MBS WERE TOO WARM, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
THAT EDGE ABOVE 3C SHOULD EVAP COOL BELOW AS SNOW STARTS FALLING.
THIS GIVES SOUNDINGS THERE MORE THE ICE PELLET LOOK TO IT AND IF
INTENSITIES ARE EXTREMELY LIGHT POSSIBLY SOME RAIN WAY SOUTH. WHILE
THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN SOUTHEAST IS NOT ZERO, IT REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE OF FACTORS ARE ON OUR SIDE,
SURFACE ROAD TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED TO AROUND 40 TODAY IN DE AND AIR
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH BELOW IF TO FREEZING THIS
EVENING AS CLOUDS ARE ALREADY HERE. LASTLY MOST ROADWAYS ARE HEAVILY
SALTED AND ARE NOT STARTING FROM A CLEAN SLATE. REGARDLESS WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS EVENING.

WHERE POPS ARE LIKELY WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL
IN THE PCPN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTH.

THEN LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RE-ENERGIZE. THIS IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR
CWA.

TEMPERATURES. BECAUSE OF THE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
CLOUDINESS, THEY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IF NOT RISE
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AFTER THE INITIAL SHOT OF PCPN. WE ARE HIGHER
THAN STAT GUIDANCE WITH MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANY COLD FRONTAL RELATED PCPN SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE THE END OF PCPN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. IN FACT
SOME OF OUR WINDEX/SNOW SQUALL TOOLS ARE GIVING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR CWA THE CHANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE OLDER WINDEX
PROCEDURES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE SUBDUED BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF EVEN
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND NO REAL FOCUSING BOUNDARY OR CAPES ABOVE 70J.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE THE CAP HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. FOR NOW WE HAVE PUT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND SEE HOW THE GUIDANCE PROGRESSES.

SNOW SHOWERS OR NOT, THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WE ARE APPROACHING WIND ADVY CRITERIA LATE
IN THE DAY AS MIXING BECOMES DEEPER. BECAUSE WE ARE NOT DEEP INTO
THE CRITERIA AND PMDHMD RECOMMENDED THAT THE NAM/WRF IS TOO TUCKED
INTO THE COAST WITH THE SFC LOW, WE HELD OFF WITH ISSUING IT FOR
NOW. THE KATABATIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN TEMPS FOR
A WHILE AND GIVEN A RELATIVELY HIGH START, WE WERE AT THE HIGH END
FOR MAX TEMPS. NOT THAT IT WILL FEEL WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE ACROSS
THE POCONOS AREAS WHERE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL
FILTER DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. WINDS COULD GUST 35-40 MPH DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR ALMOST EVERYWHERE,
WITH THE POCONOS -15 TO -20. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR CARBON AND MONROE SINCE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO
THE ADVISORY RANGE. ELSEWHERE, WIND CHILLS AS OF NOW ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL JUST SHORT.

SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AND COLD, BUT WIND CHILLS WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOME AS TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY. DRY
WEATHER IS CONTINUED TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTUAL FRONT SHOULD BE DRY AS IT
DIPS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE DAY, AND MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORT WAVE ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW AS IT PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE LOW BEING TO OUR SOUTH, AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH, IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY, FOR MOST, IF NOT
ALL OF OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF
LOOKING TO RECEIVE THE MOST. WE MAY RUN INTO AN INSTANCE WHERE
EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE MORE QPF BUT LOWER RATIOS, AND
NORTHERN AREAS HAVING LESS QPF AND HIGHER RATIOS, AND IN BETWEEN
HAVING A LITTLE OF BOTH. AS USUAL, WE`LL REFINE SNOW AMOUNTS IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. VERY COLD AIR, NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME AREAS, ONCE AGAIN FILTERS DOWN INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION AGAIN. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME
OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS WHEN THE HIGH STARTS
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND AND
IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILLS TO FALL WELL BELOW ZERO
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD END UP BEING MOSTLY SNOW
WITH THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS BROUGHT MOST TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR THIS EVENING IN SNOW. VFR
BUT VERY WINDY ON FRIDAY.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON VFR WITH LOWERING CIGS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS. PCPN IS PREDICTED TO ARRIVE AT KRDG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING BECOMING IFR VSBY IN SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS FROM THE
PHL METRO AREA TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS NWWD. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MIXED PCPN AT KMIV AND KACY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER IN THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
MVFR AGAIN AS SNOW SHOWERS PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE NORTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. THERE MIGHT
EVEN BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
BECOME WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY MORNING. VFR. A LIKELY STRATOCU DECK CIG AROUND 4K. WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS FOR NOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR EARLY, MVFR POSSIBLE DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING CONDITIONS TO IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY EARLY, IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN VFR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EARLY, BECOMING NORTHWEST BY
AFTERNOON AROUND 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE START OF THE GALE WARNING ON
FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE GRADIENT AND
CONSEQUENTLY THE SEAS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH JUST BORDERLINE SCA
CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED TONIGHT, WE OPTED TO SINGLE HEADLINE THIS
PACKAGE AND WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE MWW. GALE CONDITIONS BECOMING
LIKELIER AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS DROP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY
EVENING AND MAY DROP BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY...GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 292100
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AND PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT STILL AFFECT THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED PRETTY GOOD. AT 500MB
KILZ WINDS LOOKED OFF BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 850MB TEMPS IF
ANYTHING WERE INITIALIZED 1C TOO WARM AROUND OUR REGION, IT GETS
COLDER AT 925MB WITH A 1 TO 2C WARM BIAS. ACAR SOUNDINGS AT PHL ARE
ALL STILL BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. 12Z MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWED PLENTY OF DRY
AIR BELOW 700MB.

THE ECMWF VERIFIED THE BEST WITH ITS 6HR QPF FORECAST. GIVEN IT AND
THE CAN GGEM ARE IN THE COMPROMISE POSN BETWEEN THE GFS WHICH IS
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN AND THE MESOSCALE MODELS THAT LEAVE THE I95
CORRIDOR SEWD HIGH AND DRY, WE HAVE OPTED FOR THE FORMER.

A SUB ADVISORY ONE-TWO PCPN PUNCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR CWA EARLY
THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.  ONE TO THREE INCHES
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WAS KEPT FROM A READING PA - TRENTON NJ - NEW
BRUNSWICK NJ LINE NORTHWESTWARD. I95 CORRIDOR WAS KEPT UNDER AN INCH
AND JUST A COATING POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THE FIRST PCPN SHOT IS TIED TO A SHORT WAVE AND HAS THE BEST WAA
AS WELL AS MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE PREDICTED. THIS LOOKS LIKE A
QUICK 1 TO 3 HR SHOT. IN SPITE OF PCPN FIELD DIFFERENCES, THE
EVENING DEEP OMEGA BETWEEN THE WRF-NMM AND GFS ARE QUITE SIMILAR.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SIDING WITH THE DRIER WRF-NMMB COLLAPSING THE
PCPN BEFORE IT GETS TO PHL. BUT THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION WAS SOUTH OF
THEIR 6HR PREDICTIONS. WE WERE MORE BULLISH WITH POPS ALONG THE MD
EASTERN SHORE AS WELL INTO THE I95 CORRIDOR.

AS FOR PTYPE. THE SOUNDINGS ARE SO DRY BELOW 700MB THAT
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING INITIALLY WILL TAKE PTYPE TO SNOW POSSIBLY IN
ALL PLACES. ARE SEEING SOME SLEET (SNOW PELLETS?) IN OBSERVATIONS TO
OUR WEST. NON-FREEZING RAIN PTYPE SEEMS MOST CONFIDENT AROUND AND TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR BECAUSE OF THE EVAP COOLING POWER
OF THIS DRY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. IN THE REST OF OUR
CWA, GIVEN THAT INITIALIZED 925MBS WERE TOO WARM, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
THAT EDGE ABOVE 3C SHOULD EVAP COOL BELOW AS SNOW STARTS FALLING.
THIS GIVES SOUNDINGS THERE MORE THE ICE PELLET LOOK TO IT AND IF
INTENSITIES ARE EXTREMELY LIGHT POSSIBLY SOME RAIN WAY SOUTH. WHILE
THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN SOUTHEAST IS NOT ZERO, IT REMAINS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE OF FACTORS ARE ON OUR SIDE,
SURFACE ROAD TEMPS HAVE RESPONDED TO AROUND 40 TODAY IN DE AND AIR
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH BELOW IF TO FREEZING THIS
EVENING AS CLOUDS ARE ALREADY HERE. LASTLY MOST ROADWAYS ARE HEAVILY
SALTED AND ARE NOT STARTING FROM A CLEAN SLATE. REGARDLESS WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS EVENING.

WHERE POPS ARE LIKELY WE HAVE ISSUED AN SPS. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL
IN THE PCPN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT, EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTH.

THEN LATER TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO RE-ENERGIZE. THIS IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR
CWA.

TEMPERATURES. BECAUSE OF THE LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
CLOUDINESS, THEY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IF NOT RISE
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT AFTER THE INITIAL SHOT OF PCPN. WE ARE HIGHER
THAN STAT GUIDANCE WITH MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANY COLD FRONTAL RELATED PCPN SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE THE END OF PCPN CHANCES AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE AT THE BASE OF THE TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. IN FACT
SOME OF OUR WINDEX/SNOW SQUALL TOOLS ARE GIVING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR CWA THE CHANCE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE OLDER WINDEX
PROCEDURES ARE SLIGHTLY MORE SUBDUED BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF EVEN
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND NO REAL FOCUSING BOUNDARY OR CAPES ABOVE 70J.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE THE CAP HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
SHOWERS EVERYWHERE. FOR NOW WE HAVE PUT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND SEE HOW THE GUIDANCE PROGRESSES.

SNOW SHOWERS OR NOT, THE NORTHWEST GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WE ARE APPROACHING WIND ADVY CRITERIA LATE
IN THE DAY AS MIXING BECOMES DEEPER. BECAUSE WE ARE NOT DEEP INTO
THE CRITERIA AND PMDHMD RECOMMENDED THAT THE NAM/WRF IS TOO TUCKED
INTO THE COAST WITH THE SFC LOW, WE HELD OFF WITH ISSUING IT FOR
NOW. THE KATABATIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN TEMPS FOR
A WHILE AND GIVEN A RELATIVELY HIGH START, WE WERE AT THE HIGH END
FOR MAX TEMPS. NOT THAT IT WILL FEEL WARM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA AND INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE ACROSS
THE POCONOS AREAS WHERE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL
FILTER DOWN ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR WEST. WINDS COULD GUST 35-40 MPH DURING
FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF THE LOW TEMPERATURES AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR ALMOST EVERYWHERE,
WITH THE POCONOS -15 TO -20. WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR CARBON AND MONROE SINCE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WELL INTO
THE ADVISORY RANGE. ELSEWHERE, WIND CHILLS AS OF NOW ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL JUST SHORT.

SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY AND COLD, BUT WIND CHILLS WILL
BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOME AS TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE DAY. DRY
WEATHER IS CONTINUED TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTUAL FRONT SHOULD BE DRY AS IT
DIPS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
DURING THE DAY, AND MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
AS THIS HAPPENS, A SHORT WAVE ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
HELP STRENGTHEN THE LOW AS IT PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AND LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE LOW BEING TO OUR SOUTH, AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH, IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY, FOR MOST, IF NOT
ALL OF OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH THE SOUTHERN HALF
LOOKING TO RECEIVE THE MOST. WE MAY RUN INTO AN INSTANCE WHERE
EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE MORE QPF BUT LOWER RATIOS, AND
NORTHERN AREAS HAVING LESS QPF AND HIGHER RATIOS, AND IN BETWEEN
HAVING A LITTLE OF BOTH. AS USUAL, WE`LL REFINE SNOW AMOUNTS IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ENDED BY MONDAY EVENING AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. VERY COLD AIR, NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR SOME AREAS, ONCE AGAIN FILTERS DOWN INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN INTO THE REGION AGAIN. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME
OVERNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS WHEN THE HIGH STARTS
TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND AND
IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILLS TO FALL WELL BELOW ZERO
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TUESDAY
NIGHT, AND DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD END UP BEING MOSTLY SNOW
WITH THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS BROUGHT MOST TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR THIS EVENING IN SNOW. VFR
BUT VERY WINDY ON FRIDAY.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON VFR WITH LOWERING CIGS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS. PCPN IS PREDICTED TO ARRIVE AT KRDG LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

THIS EVENING BECOMING IFR VSBY IN SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS FROM THE
PHL METRO AREA TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS NWWD. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MIXED PCPN AT KMIV AND KACY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER IN THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
MVFR AGAIN AS SNOW SHOWERS PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE NORTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. THERE MIGHT
EVEN BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
BECOME WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY MORNING. VFR. A LIKELY STRATOCU DECK CIG AROUND 4K. WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS FOR NOW. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR DURING THE EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR EARLY, MVFR POSSIBLE DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING CONDITIONS TO IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY...IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY EARLY, IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN VFR BY
LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS EARLY, BECOMING NORTHWEST BY
AFTERNOON AROUND 20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE START OF THE GALE WARNING ON
FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE GRADIENT AND
CONSEQUENTLY THE SEAS FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. WITH JUST BORDERLINE SCA
CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED TONIGHT, WE OPTED TO SINGLE HEADLINE THIS
PACKAGE AND WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE MWW. GALE CONDITIONS BECOMING
LIKELIER AS FRIDAY PROGRESSES.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS DROP TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY
EVENING AND MAY DROP BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY...GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FREEZING SPRAY LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291738
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1238 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL SEND AN ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE IS TO UP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY. THE SNOW
COVER IS NOT HAVING AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS RISING. THIS
ALSO OCCURRED YESTERDAY. THE MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN PRETTY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION PRETTY CLOSE TO
00Z ALG THE DE VLY. THERE IS A SOUTHWARD DP/DT TREND WITH THE
HRRR. WE HAVE NOT ARRIVED WITHIN THE HOURS OF CONCERN AND THE
LATEST 12Z NAM REMAINS DRY IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA. WE WILL SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES TO UP POPS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. MORNING
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. THIS IS A
GOOD THING BECAUSE PRECIPITATION WOULD EVAP COOL TO SNOW. BASED ON
FCST SOUNDINGS (NO TEMPS ALF GET >2C) IN OUR CWA CONTINUES
PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA OF EITHER
SNOW OR SLEET AS A NON LIQUID PTYPE AND NOT FREEZING RAIN. THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS MAXT MACROS GIVE AROUND 40F FOR MAX TEMPS, BUT WITH
CLOUDS ARRIVING AND SNOW COVER, WE JUST DID A SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT BETWEEN CONTINUITY AMD THE SOUNDING SUGGESTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE THE HIGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
WINDS WERE CALM. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FOR A LIGHT NW WIND TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA, FAR SE PA AND S NJ. HOWEVER,
THESE AREAS HAVE A CHANCE TO COOL SEVERAL MORE DEGREES THRU DAYBREAK
AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE DAY. AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE
MORNING, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND LOWER/THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THE
PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES (MPO-RDG-MQS-ESN
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM). NOTE THAT WE DID SPEED UP THE ONSET
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AS MODELS OFTEN ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE LEADING
WAA BAND. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PTYPE STARTING OUT AS SNOW IN PA,
SN/IP IN NE MD/FAR N DELMARVA AND RA/IP TOWARD QUEEN ANNE`S AND
TALBOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL SHIELD OF PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY AND MID EVENING AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS
THRU. PTYPE FROM PHILLY AND POINTS NORTHWARD WILL BE ALL SNOW. A
WARM NOSE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET IN THE
NORTHERN DELMARVA AND THE SOUTHERN MOST LOCATIONS IN NJ. WARMER SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN DE AND
ADJACENT MD ZONES.

POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78
CORRIDOR, WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE GREATEST AND LESS TRANSITORY
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT
ARE AROUND 1-2 FOR THESE AREAS. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NJ.

WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA AND A SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
BE MOVING AWAY. SCT SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS JUST AFTER 12Z
WILL REMAIN INTO THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH TEMPS NOT CHANGING MUCH...REMAINING IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS GUSTING TO
25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN
POCONOS...TEENS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S
ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
A DRY FCST BUT BITTER COLD TEMPS CONTINUE SAT WITH SOME MODERATION
SUNDAY. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY TEENS (NORTH) AND LOW 20S (SOUTH) WIND
CHILLS MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS EARLY WITH SUB ZERO FAR NORTH. A WIND
CHILL FLAG MAY BE NEEDED. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER MORE DISORGANIZED SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM
WITH THE 12Z WED MODELS...THE 00Z THU OP MODELS HAVE AGAIN SWUNG
BACK TO WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA. GFS...MOVES LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE CAROLINAS UP OFF THE DELMARVA THEN JUST EAST OF 40/70 MONDAY. A
DECENT SWATH OF MODERATE QPF (MOSTLY SNOW) TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EC...WEAKER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CAROLINAS UP WELL EAST
OF THE 40/70 MARK WITH SLOWER DEEPENING. STILL SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA...BUT MUCH LIGHTER AND THE HIGHER TOTALS ARE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. CMC...MUCH CLOSER...STRONGER AND VERY WET.
AREAS S/E OF I-95 WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN MON WITH THE CMC SOLUTION.

THERE CAN BE A TENDENCY FOR A NORTHWARD TRACK BIAS WITH SYSTEMS WHEN
A STRONG HIGH IS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS/CMC MODELS
MAY BE DISPLAYING THIS...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH THE WPC NUMBERS FOR
NOW AND OFFERED THE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PERIOD. NOT
MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. WITH THIS WRITTEN...AN
INCREASING CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SUN NIGHT MONDAY FOR THE
SRN/ERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO
AND ASK USERS TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK ON TO A SOLUTION...BUT MAY BE
BEGINNING TO SETTLE...WITH AT LEAST MORE AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT.

MON NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLD TEMPS TUE AND A
BIT WARMER WED. A MOSTLY DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS BRING MOST TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR THIS EVENING IN SNOW. VFR
BUT VERY WINDY ON FRIDAY.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON VFR WITH LOWERING CIGS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING BECOMING IFR VSBY IN SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS FROM THE
PHL METRO AREA TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS NWWD. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MIXED PCPN AT KMIV AND KACY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER IN THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
MVFR AGAIN AS SNOW SHOWERS PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE NORTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. THERE MIGHT
EVEN BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
BECOME WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY MORNING. VFR. A LIKELY STRATOCU DECK CIG AROUND 4K.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY
EVENING. SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...LOWERING CIGS. SNOW WITH
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH STARTS AT 11 PM AND CONTINUES THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...GALE WARNINGS ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BACK
  TO SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
MON THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TUE AFTERNOON.
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...SCA SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 291738
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1238 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL SEND AN ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE IS TO UP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY. THE SNOW
COVER IS NOT HAVING AS MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPS RISING. THIS
ALSO OCCURRED YESTERDAY. THE MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN PRETTY
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION PRETTY CLOSE TO
00Z ALG THE DE VLY. THERE IS A SOUTHWARD DP/DT TREND WITH THE
HRRR. WE HAVE NOT ARRIVED WITHIN THE HOURS OF CONCERN AND THE
LATEST 12Z NAM REMAINS DRY IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA. WE WILL SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES TO UP POPS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. MORNING
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. THIS IS A
GOOD THING BECAUSE PRECIPITATION WOULD EVAP COOL TO SNOW. BASED ON
FCST SOUNDINGS (NO TEMPS ALF GET >2C) IN OUR CWA CONTINUES
PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA OF EITHER
SNOW OR SLEET AS A NON LIQUID PTYPE AND NOT FREEZING RAIN. THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS MAXT MACROS GIVE AROUND 40F FOR MAX TEMPS, BUT WITH
CLOUDS ARRIVING AND SNOW COVER, WE JUST DID A SLIGHT UPWARD
ADJUSTMENT BETWEEN CONTINUITY AMD THE SOUNDING SUGGESTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE THE HIGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
WINDS WERE CALM. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FOR A LIGHT NW WIND TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA, FAR SE PA AND S NJ. HOWEVER,
THESE AREAS HAVE A CHANCE TO COOL SEVERAL MORE DEGREES THRU DAYBREAK
AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE DAY. AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE
MORNING, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND LOWER/THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THE
PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES (MPO-RDG-MQS-ESN
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM). NOTE THAT WE DID SPEED UP THE ONSET
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AS MODELS OFTEN ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE LEADING
WAA BAND. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PTYPE STARTING OUT AS SNOW IN PA,
SN/IP IN NE MD/FAR N DELMARVA AND RA/IP TOWARD QUEEN ANNE`S AND
TALBOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL SHIELD OF PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY AND MID EVENING AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS
THRU. PTYPE FROM PHILLY AND POINTS NORTHWARD WILL BE ALL SNOW. A
WARM NOSE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET IN THE
NORTHERN DELMARVA AND THE SOUTHERN MOST LOCATIONS IN NJ. WARMER SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN DE AND
ADJACENT MD ZONES.

POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78
CORRIDOR, WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE GREATEST AND LESS TRANSITORY
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT
ARE AROUND 1-2 FOR THESE AREAS. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NJ.

WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA AND A SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
BE MOVING AWAY. SCT SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS JUST AFTER 12Z
WILL REMAIN INTO THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH TEMPS NOT CHANGING MUCH...REMAINING IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS GUSTING TO
25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN
POCONOS...TEENS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S
ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
A DRY FCST BUT BITTER COLD TEMPS CONTINUE SAT WITH SOME MODERATION
SUNDAY. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY TEENS (NORTH) AND LOW 20S (SOUTH) WIND
CHILLS MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS EARLY WITH SUB ZERO FAR NORTH. A WIND
CHILL FLAG MAY BE NEEDED. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER MORE DISORGANIZED SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM
WITH THE 12Z WED MODELS...THE 00Z THU OP MODELS HAVE AGAIN SWUNG
BACK TO WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA. GFS...MOVES LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE CAROLINAS UP OFF THE DELMARVA THEN JUST EAST OF 40/70 MONDAY. A
DECENT SWATH OF MODERATE QPF (MOSTLY SNOW) TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EC...WEAKER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CAROLINAS UP WELL EAST
OF THE 40/70 MARK WITH SLOWER DEEPENING. STILL SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA...BUT MUCH LIGHTER AND THE HIGHER TOTALS ARE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. CMC...MUCH CLOSER...STRONGER AND VERY WET.
AREAS S/E OF I-95 WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN MON WITH THE CMC SOLUTION.

THERE CAN BE A TENDENCY FOR A NORTHWARD TRACK BIAS WITH SYSTEMS WHEN
A STRONG HIGH IS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS/CMC MODELS
MAY BE DISPLAYING THIS...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH THE WPC NUMBERS FOR
NOW AND OFFERED THE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PERIOD. NOT
MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. WITH THIS WRITTEN...AN
INCREASING CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SUN NIGHT MONDAY FOR THE
SRN/ERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO
AND ASK USERS TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK ON TO A SOLUTION...BUT MAY BE
BEGINNING TO SETTLE...WITH AT LEAST MORE AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT.

MON NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLD TEMPS TUE AND A
BIT WARMER WED. A MOSTLY DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS BRING MOST TERMINALS DOWN TO IFR THIS EVENING IN SNOW. VFR
BUT VERY WINDY ON FRIDAY.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON VFR WITH LOWERING CIGS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THIS EVENING BECOMING IFR VSBY IN SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS FROM THE
PHL METRO AREA TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS NWWD. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
MIXED PCPN AT KMIV AND KACY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER IN THE EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO
MVFR AGAIN AS SNOW SHOWERS PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT.
HIGHER CONFIDENCE NORTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. THERE MIGHT
EVEN BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL
BECOME WEST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY MORNING. VFR. A LIKELY STRATOCU DECK CIG AROUND 4K.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY
EVENING. SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...LOWERING CIGS. SNOW WITH
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH STARTS AT 11 PM AND CONTINUES THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...GALE WARNINGS ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BACK
  TO SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
MON THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TUE AFTERNOON.
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...SCA SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291441
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL SEND AN ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. THE MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN
PRETTY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION PRETTY
CLOSE TO 00Z ALG THE DE VLY. THERE IS A SOUTHWARD DP/DT TREND WITH
THE HRRR. WE HAVE NOT ARRIVED WITHIN THE HOURS OF CONCERN AND THE
LATEST 12Z NAM REMAINS DRY IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA. WE WILL SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES TO UP POPS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. MORNING
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. THIS IS A
GOOD THING BECAUSE PRECIPITATION WOULD EVAP COOL TO SNOW. BASED ON
FCST SOUNDINGS (NO TEMPS ALF GET >2C) IN OUR CWA CONTINUES
PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA OF EITHER
SNOW OR SLEET AS A NON LIQUID PTYPE AND NOT FREEZING RAIN. THE
12Z SOUNDINGS MAXT MACROS GIVE AROUND 40F FOR MAX TEMPS, BUT WITH
CLOUDS ARRIVING AND SNOW COVER, WE JUST DID A SLIGHT UPWARD NUDGE.
MUCH CLOSER TO CONTINUITY THAN THE SOUNDING SUGGESTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE THE HIGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
WINDS WERE CALM. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FOR A LIGHT NW WIND TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA, FAR SE PA AND S NJ. HOWEVER,
THESE AREAS HAVE A CHANCE TO COOL SEVERAL MORE DEGREES THRU DAYBREAK
AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE DAY. AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE
MORNING, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND LOWER/THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THE
PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES (MPO-RDG-MQS-ESN
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM). NOTE THAT WE DID SPEED UP THE ONSET
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AS MODELS OFTEN ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE LEADING
WAA BAND. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PTYPE STARTING OUT AS SNOW IN PA,
SN/IP IN NE MD/FAR N DELMARVA AND RA/IP TOWARD QUEEN ANNE`S AND
TALBOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL SHIELD OF PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY AND MID EVENING AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS
THRU. PTYPE FROM PHILLY AND POINTS NORTHWARD WILL BE ALL SNOW. A
WARM NOSE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET IN THE
NORTHERN DELMARVA AND THE SOUTHERN MOST LOCATIONS IN NJ. WARMER SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN DE AND
ADJACENT MD ZONES.

POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78
CORRIDOR, WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE GREATEST AND LESS TRANSITORY
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT
ARE AROUND 1-2 FOR THESE AREAS. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NJ.

WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA AND A SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
BE MOVING AWAY. SCT SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS JUST AFTER 12Z
WILL REMAIN INTO THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH TEMPS NOT CHANGING MUCH...REMAINING IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS GUSTING TO
25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN
POCONOS...TEENS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S
ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
A DRY FCST BUT BITTER COLD TEMPS CONTINUE SAT WITH SOME MODERATION
SUNDAY. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY TEENS (NORTH) AND LOW 20S (SOUTH) WIND
CHILLS MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS EARLY WITH SUB ZERO FAR NORTH. A WIND
CHILL FLAG MAY BE NEEDED. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER MORE DISORGANIZED SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM
WITH THE 12Z WED MODELS...THE 00Z THU OP MODELS HAVE AGAIN SWUNG
BACK TO WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA. GFS...MOVES LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE CAROLINAS UP OFF THE DELMARVA THEN JUST EAST OF 40/70 MONDAY. A
DECENT SWATH OF MODERATE QPF (MOSTLY SNOW) TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EC...WEAKER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CAROLINAS UP WELL EAST
OF THE 40/70 MARK WITH SLOWER DEEPENING. STILL SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA...BUT MUCH LIGHTER AND THE HIGHER TOTALS ARE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. CMC...MUCH CLOSER...STRONGER AND VERY WET.
AREAS S/E OF I-95 WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN MON WITH THE CMC SOLUTION.

THERE CAN BE A TENDENCY FOR A NORTHWARD TRACK BIAS WITH SYSTEMS WHEN
A STRONG HIGH IS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS/CMC MODELS
MAY BE DISPLAYING THIS...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH THE WPC NUMBERS FOR
NOW AND OFFERED THE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PERIOD. NOT
MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. WITH THIS WRITTEN...AN
INCREASING CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SUN NIGHT MONDAY FOR THE
SRN/ERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO
AND ASK USERS TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK ON TO A SOLUTION...BUT MAY BE
BEGINNING TO SETTLE...WITH AT LEAST MORE AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT.

MON NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLD TEMPS TUE AND A
BIT WARMER WED. A MOSTLY DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THIS MRNG AND FIRST PART OF THE AFTN. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO
REACH THE WRN TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY (RDG AROUND 22Z AND ABE
23Z). VSBYS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR QUICKLY AFTER ONSET OF SNOW.
SNOW MOVES EWD TOWARD THE I-95 TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. THIS
WILL BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM, SO ONLY EXPECTING A BRIEF, 3-6 HOUR,
PERIOD OF SNOW. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT ILG/MIV/ACY BUT CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP MAKING IT TO ACY IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS CLOSE TO THE
EVENT. SNOW MAY LINGER OUT TOWARD ABE-RDG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING, BECOMING SLY THIS AFTN/EVE AND
SWLY OVERNIGHT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THRU SUN MORNING...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY.
SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...LOWERING CIGS. SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH STARTS AT 11 PM AND CONTINUES THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...GALE WARNINGS ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BACK
  TO SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
MON THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TUE AFTERNOON.
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...SCA SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 291441
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL SEND AN ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. THE MESOSCALE MODELS REMAIN
PRETTY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS TO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION PRETTY
CLOSE TO 00Z ALG THE DE VLY. THERE IS A SOUTHWARD DP/DT TREND WITH
THE HRRR. WE HAVE NOT ARRIVED WITHIN THE HOURS OF CONCERN AND THE
LATEST 12Z NAM REMAINS DRY IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA. WE WILL SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES TO UP POPS WITH THE NEXT UPDATE. MORNING
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. THIS IS A
GOOD THING BECAUSE PRECIPITATION WOULD EVAP COOL TO SNOW. BASED ON
FCST SOUNDINGS (NO TEMPS ALF GET >2C) IN OUR CWA CONTINUES
PREVIOUS SHIFT`S THINKING IN THE SRN PART OF OUR CWA OF EITHER
SNOW OR SLEET AS A NON LIQUID PTYPE AND NOT FREEZING RAIN. THE
12Z SOUNDINGS MAXT MACROS GIVE AROUND 40F FOR MAX TEMPS, BUT WITH
CLOUDS ARRIVING AND SNOW COVER, WE JUST DID A SLIGHT UPWARD NUDGE.
MUCH CLOSER TO CONTINUITY THAN THE SOUNDING SUGGESTIONS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE THE HIGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
WINDS WERE CALM. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FOR A LIGHT NW WIND TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA, FAR SE PA AND S NJ. HOWEVER,
THESE AREAS HAVE A CHANCE TO COOL SEVERAL MORE DEGREES THRU DAYBREAK
AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE DAY. AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE
MORNING, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND LOWER/THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THE
PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES (MPO-RDG-MQS-ESN
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM). NOTE THAT WE DID SPEED UP THE ONSET
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AS MODELS OFTEN ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE LEADING
WAA BAND. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PTYPE STARTING OUT AS SNOW IN PA,
SN/IP IN NE MD/FAR N DELMARVA AND RA/IP TOWARD QUEEN ANNE`S AND
TALBOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL SHIELD OF PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY AND MID EVENING AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS
THRU. PTYPE FROM PHILLY AND POINTS NORTHWARD WILL BE ALL SNOW. A
WARM NOSE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET IN THE
NORTHERN DELMARVA AND THE SOUTHERN MOST LOCATIONS IN NJ. WARMER SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN DE AND
ADJACENT MD ZONES.

POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78
CORRIDOR, WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE GREATEST AND LESS TRANSITORY
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT
ARE AROUND 1-2 FOR THESE AREAS. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NJ.

WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA AND A SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
BE MOVING AWAY. SCT SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS JUST AFTER 12Z
WILL REMAIN INTO THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH TEMPS NOT CHANGING MUCH...REMAINING IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS GUSTING TO
25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN
POCONOS...TEENS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S
ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
A DRY FCST BUT BITTER COLD TEMPS CONTINUE SAT WITH SOME MODERATION
SUNDAY. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY TEENS (NORTH) AND LOW 20S (SOUTH) WIND
CHILLS MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS EARLY WITH SUB ZERO FAR NORTH. A WIND
CHILL FLAG MAY BE NEEDED. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER MORE DISORGANIZED SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM
WITH THE 12Z WED MODELS...THE 00Z THU OP MODELS HAVE AGAIN SWUNG
BACK TO WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA. GFS...MOVES LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE CAROLINAS UP OFF THE DELMARVA THEN JUST EAST OF 40/70 MONDAY. A
DECENT SWATH OF MODERATE QPF (MOSTLY SNOW) TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EC...WEAKER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CAROLINAS UP WELL EAST
OF THE 40/70 MARK WITH SLOWER DEEPENING. STILL SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA...BUT MUCH LIGHTER AND THE HIGHER TOTALS ARE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. CMC...MUCH CLOSER...STRONGER AND VERY WET.
AREAS S/E OF I-95 WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN MON WITH THE CMC SOLUTION.

THERE CAN BE A TENDENCY FOR A NORTHWARD TRACK BIAS WITH SYSTEMS WHEN
A STRONG HIGH IS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS/CMC MODELS
MAY BE DISPLAYING THIS...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH THE WPC NUMBERS FOR
NOW AND OFFERED THE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PERIOD. NOT
MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. WITH THIS WRITTEN...AN
INCREASING CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SUN NIGHT MONDAY FOR THE
SRN/ERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO
AND ASK USERS TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK ON TO A SOLUTION...BUT MAY BE
BEGINNING TO SETTLE...WITH AT LEAST MORE AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT.

MON NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLD TEMPS TUE AND A
BIT WARMER WED. A MOSTLY DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THIS MRNG AND FIRST PART OF THE AFTN. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO
REACH THE WRN TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY (RDG AROUND 22Z AND ABE
23Z). VSBYS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR QUICKLY AFTER ONSET OF SNOW.
SNOW MOVES EWD TOWARD THE I-95 TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. THIS
WILL BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM, SO ONLY EXPECTING A BRIEF, 3-6 HOUR,
PERIOD OF SNOW. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT ILG/MIV/ACY BUT CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP MAKING IT TO ACY IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS CLOSE TO THE
EVENT. SNOW MAY LINGER OUT TOWARD ABE-RDG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING, BECOMING SLY THIS AFTN/EVE AND
SWLY OVERNIGHT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THRU SUN MORNING...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY.
SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...LOWERING CIGS. SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH STARTS AT 11 PM AND CONTINUES THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...GALE WARNINGS ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BACK
  TO SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
MON THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TUE AFTERNOON.
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...SCA SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290917
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
417 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT WILL SEND AN ARCTIC
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST
SOUTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED BETWEEN THE EAST COAST AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY LARGE TEMP SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF NE PA AND NW NJ WHERE THE HIGH IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND
WINDS WERE CALM. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST FOR A LIGHT NW WIND TO KEEP TEMPS STEADY IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOWER 20S ACROSS THE DELMARVA, FAR SE PA AND S NJ. HOWEVER,
THESE AREAS HAVE A CHANCE TO COOL SEVERAL MORE DEGREES THRU DAYBREAK
AS THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE COAST.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDWEST TRACKS EASTWARD TOWARD
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE IN THE DAY. AFTER A SUNNY START TO THE
MORNING, HIGH AND MID CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD
OUR AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND LOWER/THICKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THE
PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES (MPO-RDG-MQS-ESN
ROUGHLY BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM). NOTE THAT WE DID SPEED UP THE ONSET
AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER AS MODELS OFTEN ARE TOO SLOW WITH THE LEADING
WAA BAND. THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT PTYPE STARTING OUT AS SNOW IN PA,
SN/IP IN NE MD/FAR N DELMARVA AND RA/IP TOWARD QUEEN ANNE`S AND
TALBOT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING.
THE INITIAL SHIELD OF PRECIP THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL SPREAD EASTWARD DURING
THE EARLY AND MID EVENING AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SWINGS
THRU. PTYPE FROM PHILLY AND POINTS NORTHWARD WILL BE ALL SNOW. A
WARM NOSE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SNOW TO MIX WITH SLEET IN THE
NORTHERN DELMARVA AND THE SOUTHERN MOST LOCATIONS IN NJ. WARMER SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN DE AND
ADJACENT MD ZONES.

POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78
CORRIDOR, WHERE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE GREATEST AND LESS TRANSITORY
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS EVENT
ARE AROUND 1-2 FOR THESE AREAS. THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO
BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST
PA AND NORTHERN NJ.

WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING TEMPS TO FALL MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT WITH
CLOUD COVER BLANKETING THE AREA AND A SOUTHWEST WIND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE ARCTIC FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
BE MOVING AWAY. SCT SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS JUST AFTER 12Z
WILL REMAIN INTO THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH TEMPS NOT CHANGING MUCH...REMAINING IN
THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID 30S SOUTH. TEMPS MAY BEGIN TO FALL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. WINDS GUSTING TO
25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN
POCONOS...TEENS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE AREA AND LOW 20S
ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.
A DRY FCST BUT BITTER COLD TEMPS CONTINUE SAT WITH SOME MODERATION
SUNDAY. HIGHS SAT MOSTLY TEENS (NORTH) AND LOW 20S (SOUTH) WIND
CHILLS MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS EARLY WITH SUB ZERO FAR NORTH. A WIND
CHILL FLAG MAY BE NEEDED. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTER MORE DISORGANIZED SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM
WITH THE 12Z WED MODELS...THE 00Z THU OP MODELS HAVE AGAIN SWUNG
BACK TO WETTER SOLUTIONS FOR OUR AREA. GFS...MOVES LOW PRESSURE FROM
THE CAROLINAS UP OFF THE DELMARVA THEN JUST EAST OF 40/70 MONDAY. A
DECENT SWATH OF MODERATE QPF (MOSTLY SNOW) TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. EC...WEAKER LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CAROLINAS UP WELL EAST
OF THE 40/70 MARK WITH SLOWER DEEPENING. STILL SOME SNOW TO THE
AREA...BUT MUCH LIGHTER AND THE HIGHER TOTALS ARE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. CMC...MUCH CLOSER...STRONGER AND VERY WET.
AREAS S/E OF I-95 WOULD CHANGE TO RAIN MON WITH THE CMC SOLUTION.

THERE CAN BE A TENDENCY FOR A NORTHWARD TRACK BIAS WITH SYSTEMS WHEN
A STRONG HIGH IS NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS/CMC MODELS
MAY BE DISPLAYING THIS...SO WE HAVE GONE WITH THE WPC NUMBERS FOR
NOW AND OFFERED THE HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR THESE PERIOD. NOT
MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST. WITH THIS WRITTEN...AN
INCREASING CHC FOR AN ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR SUN NIGHT MONDAY FOR THE
SRN/ERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WE WILL MAKE MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO
AND ASK USERS TO CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODELS HAVE YET TO LOCK ON TO A SOLUTION...BUT MAY BE
BEGINNING TO SETTLE...WITH AT LEAST MORE AGREEMENT THAN THIS TIME
LAST NIGHT.

MON NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLD TEMPS TUE AND A
BIT WARMER WED. A MOSTLY DRY FCST FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR THIS MRNG AND FIRST PART OF THE AFTN. EXPECT A BAND OF SNOW TO
REACH THE WRN TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY (RDG AROUND 22Z AND ABE
23Z). VSBYS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR QUICKLY AFTER ONSET OF SNOW.
SNOW MOVES EWD TOWARD THE I-95 TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z-02Z. THIS
WILL BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM, SO ONLY EXPECTING A BRIEF, 3-6 HOUR,
PERIOD OF SNOW. SLEET MAY MIX IN AT ILG/MIV/ACY BUT CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP MAKING IT TO ACY IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THIS CLOSE TO THE
EVENT. SNOW MAY LINGER OUT TOWARD ABE-RDG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING, BECOMING SLY THIS AFTN/EVE AND
SWLY OVERNIGHT 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THRU SUN MORNING...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY.
SUN AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...LOWERING CIGS. SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. SCA WAS ISSUED FOR
THE COASTAL ZONES, WHICH STARTS AT 11 PM AND CONTINUES THRU THE
OVERNIGHT. WAVES WILL BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...GALE WARNINGS ISSUED. WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BACK
  TO SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.
SUN NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
MON THRU TUE...SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS SUBSIDE TUE AFTERNOON.
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...SCA SEAS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290218
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
918 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND OFFSHORE
ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND REFORM NEAR CAPE COD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
VICINITY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH ITS
AXIS REACHING OUR REGION TOWARD MORNING. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME WISPS OF
CIRRUS ARRIVING NEAR DAYBREAK.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT VEERS TOWARD
THE NORTH. THE WIND WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY
LOCATIONS.

THE LIGHT WIND, CLEAR SKY AND SNOW COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

CLEAR SKIES WILL START TO CLOUD UP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT WE
MIGHT START TO SEE OUR FIRST FLAKES FALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES THE POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON`S
BAY... A RIDGE INVOF THE WEST COAST OF NOAM AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
CUT OFF LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...THAT MAY FINALLY EJECTED
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL
GUIDE S/WV ENERGY THRU A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONUS. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...LEADING TO THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM INVOF CAPE COD ON FRI...AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY S/WV RIDGING FOR A BRIEF TIME OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A PRIMARY S/WV ENTERS THE NORTHERN INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL OTHER PIECES OF
ENERGY EXTENDING FROM HUDSON`S BAY TO THE GULF COAST. THE DEGREE
OF PHASING THESE FEATURES UNDERGO AS THEY TRAVERSE THE EAST CONUS
TROUGH...AND REDEVELOPMENT INVOF THE EAST COAST...PRESENTS THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST. AT THE D+5 TIME
FRAME...IT/S TO EARLY TO LOCK ONTO ANY SPECIFICS...BUT THE NAO IS
PROJECTED TO GO FROM NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE WHICH IS TYPICALLY
FAVORABLE FOR EAST COAST CYCLOGENISIS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. THE SKY
WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS ON THURSDAY
MORNING AND AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS, WITH BASES AT OR
ABOVE 10,000 FEET, DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
IN SNOW SQUALLS. NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM.

WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS OUR
AREA. SEAS ARE ALSO DECREASING. EXPECT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO
FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON OUR OCEAN WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS INCREASINGLY LIKELY.

SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.

SUN...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...FRANCK/O`HARA
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290218
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
918 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND OFFSHORE
ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND REFORM NEAR CAPE COD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
VICINITY THIS EVENING. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH ITS
AXIS REACHING OUR REGION TOWARD MORNING. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME WISPS OF
CIRRUS ARRIVING NEAR DAYBREAK.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS IT VEERS TOWARD
THE NORTH. THE WIND WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY
LOCATIONS.

THE LIGHT WIND, CLEAR SKY AND SNOW COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES
TO FALL QUITE A BIT OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH AND IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

CLEAR SKIES WILL START TO CLOUD UP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT WE
MIGHT START TO SEE OUR FIRST FLAKES FALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES THE POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON`S
BAY... A RIDGE INVOF THE WEST COAST OF NOAM AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
CUT OFF LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...THAT MAY FINALLY EJECTED
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL
GUIDE S/WV ENERGY THRU A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONUS. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...LEADING TO THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM INVOF CAPE COD ON FRI...AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY S/WV RIDGING FOR A BRIEF TIME OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A PRIMARY S/WV ENTERS THE NORTHERN INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL OTHER PIECES OF
ENERGY EXTENDING FROM HUDSON`S BAY TO THE GULF COAST. THE DEGREE
OF PHASING THESE FEATURES UNDERGO AS THEY TRAVERSE THE EAST CONUS
TROUGH...AND REDEVELOPMENT INVOF THE EAST COAST...PRESENTS THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST. AT THE D+5 TIME
FRAME...IT/S TO EARLY TO LOCK ONTO ANY SPECIFICS...BUT THE NAO IS
PROJECTED TO GO FROM NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE WHICH IS TYPICALLY
FAVORABLE FOR EAST COAST CYCLOGENISIS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. THE SKY
WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN CIRRUS ON THURSDAY
MORNING AND AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUDS, WITH BASES AT OR
ABOVE 10,000 FEET, DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AT MOST LOCATIONS FOR LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
IN SNOW SQUALLS. NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM.

WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS OUR
AREA. SEAS ARE ALSO DECREASING. EXPECT BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO
FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON OUR OCEAN WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS INCREASINGLY LIKELY.

SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.

SUN...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...FRANCK/O`HARA
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/MEOLA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 282318
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
618 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND REFORM NEAR CAPE COD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO
SHIFT SOUTH BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY WILL RELAX.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION.
IN ADDITION, SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. SNOW COVER DID DIMINISH IN THE BRIGHT SUN
TODAY BUT PARTS OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SNOW ON THE
GROUND OVERNIGHT, MAINLY THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SOUTHERN
POCONOS, AND NEIGHBORING AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS BUT WERE EDGED DOWN
A BIT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE
GROUND. EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA
WITH TEENS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

CLEAR SKIES WILL START TO CLOUD UP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT WE
MIGHT START TO SEE OUR FIRST FLAKES FALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES THE POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON`S
BAY... A RIDGE INVOF THE WEST COAST OF NOAM AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
CUT OFF LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...THAT MAY FINALLY EJECTED
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL
GUIDE S/WV ENERGY THRU A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONUS. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...LEADING TO THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM INVOF CAPE COD ON FRI...AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY S/WV RIDGING FOR A BRIEF TIME OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A PRIMARY S/WV ENTERS THE NORTHERN INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL OTHER PIECES OF
ENERGY EXTENDING FROM HUDSON`S BAY TO THE GULF COAST. THE DEGREE
OF PHASING THESE FEATURES UNDERGO AS THEY TRAVERSE THE EAST CONUS
TROUGH...AND REDEVELOPMENT INVOF THE EAST COAST...PRESENTS THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST. AT THE D+5 TIME
FRAME...IT/S TO EARLY TO LOCK ONTO ANY SPECIFICS...BUT THE NAO IS
PROJECTED TO GO FROM NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE WHICH IS TYPICALLY
FAVORABLE FOR EAST COAST CYCLOGENISIS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SKIES START TO CLOUD UP
DURING THE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
IN SNOW SQUALLS. NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY HAS EXPIRED. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM.

WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS OUR
AREA. SEAS ARE ALSO STARTING TO DECREASE. EXPECT BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS INCREASINGLY LIKELY.

SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.

SUN...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...FRANCK/O`HARA
AVIATION...FRANCK/MEOLA
MARINE...FRANCK/MEOLA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 282318
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
618 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT AND REFORM NEAR CAPE COD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO
SHIFT SOUTH BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY WILL RELAX.
OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION.
IN ADDITION, SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. SNOW COVER DID DIMINISH IN THE BRIGHT SUN
TODAY BUT PARTS OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SNOW ON THE
GROUND OVERNIGHT, MAINLY THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SOUTHERN
POCONOS, AND NEIGHBORING AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS BUT WERE EDGED DOWN
A BIT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE
GROUND. EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA
WITH TEENS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

CLEAR SKIES WILL START TO CLOUD UP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT WE
MIGHT START TO SEE OUR FIRST FLAKES FALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES THE POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON`S
BAY... A RIDGE INVOF THE WEST COAST OF NOAM AND A SOUTHERN STREAM
CUT OFF LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...THAT MAY FINALLY EJECTED
NORTHEASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL
GUIDE S/WV ENERGY THRU A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONUS. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...LEADING TO THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM INVOF CAPE COD ON FRI...AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY S/WV RIDGING FOR A BRIEF TIME OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A PRIMARY S/WV ENTERS THE NORTHERN INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL OTHER PIECES OF
ENERGY EXTENDING FROM HUDSON`S BAY TO THE GULF COAST. THE DEGREE
OF PHASING THESE FEATURES UNDERGO AS THEY TRAVERSE THE EAST CONUS
TROUGH...AND REDEVELOPMENT INVOF THE EAST COAST...PRESENTS THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST. AT THE D+5 TIME
FRAME...IT/S TO EARLY TO LOCK ONTO ANY SPECIFICS...BUT THE NAO IS
PROJECTED TO GO FROM NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE WHICH IS TYPICALLY
FAVORABLE FOR EAST COAST CYCLOGENISIS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING,
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SKIES START TO CLOUD UP
DURING THE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
IN SNOW SQUALLS. NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LOWER DELAWARE BAY HAS EXPIRED. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM.

WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS OUR
AREA. SEAS ARE ALSO STARTING TO DECREASE. EXPECT BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS INCREASINGLY LIKELY.

SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.

SUN...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...FRANCK/O`HARA
AVIATION...FRANCK/MEOLA
MARINE...FRANCK/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 282051
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE
ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND REFORM NEAR CAPE COD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE AN ARCTIC
FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO
SHIFT SOUTH BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY WILL RELAX AND
WE WILL SEE THE WINDS LOSE THEIR GUSTINESS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ADDITION, SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND WE SHOULD RADIATE
WELL ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. SNOW COVER DID DIMINISH IN THE BRIGHT SUN
TODAY BUT PARTS OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SNOW ON THE
GROUND OVERNIGHT, MAINLY THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SOUTHERN
POCONOS, AND NEIGHBORING AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS BUT WERE EDGED DOWN A
BIT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND.
EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA WITH
TEENS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

CLEAR SKIES WILL START TO CLOUD UP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT WE MIGHT
START TO SEE OUR FIRST FLAKES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES THE POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON`S BAY...
A RIDGE INVOF THE WEST COAST OF NOAM AND A SOUTHERN STREAM CUT OFF
LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...THAT MAY FINALLY EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL GUIDE S/WV ENERGY
THRU A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...LEADING TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM INVOF CAPE COD ON FRI...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY S/WV RIDGING
FOR A BRIEF TIME OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A PRIMARY
S/WV ENTERS THE NORTHERN INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY SEVERAL OTHER PIECES OF ENERGY EXTENDING FROM HUDSON`S BAY TO
THE GULF COAST. THE DEGREE OF PHASING THESE FEATURES UNDERGO AS THEY
TRAVERSE THE EAST CONUS TROUGH...AND REDEVELOPMENT INVOF THE EAST
COAST...PRESENTS THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST. AT THE
D+5 TIME FRAME...IT/S TO EARLY TO LOCK ONTO ANY SPECIFICS...BUT THE
NAO IS PROJECTED TO GO FROM NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE WHICH IS TYPICALLY
FAVORABLE FOR EAST COAST CYCLOGENISIS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SKIES START TO CLOUD UP DURING
THE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. CEILINGS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST...BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN SNOW SQUALLS. NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM TONIGHT ON THE
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN IS NOW
IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE UPPER
DELAWARE BAY HAS BEEN CANCELED AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WINDS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
ACROSS OUR AREA. SEAS ARE ALSO STARTING TO DECREASE. EXPECT BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER
TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.
SUN...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/MEOLA
MARINE...FRANCK/MEOLA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 282051
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND OFFSHORE
ON THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND REFORM NEAR CAPE COD ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE AN ARCTIC
FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
A COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO OUR AREA TONIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO
SHIFT SOUTH BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY WILL RELAX AND
WE WILL SEE THE WINDS LOSE THEIR GUSTINESS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE
REGION. IN ADDITION, SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND WE SHOULD RADIATE
WELL ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. SNOW COVER DID DIMINISH IN THE BRIGHT SUN
TODAY BUT PARTS OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SNOW ON THE
GROUND OVERNIGHT, MAINLY THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SOUTHERN
POCONOS, AND NEIGHBORING AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS BUT WERE EDGED DOWN A
BIT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE THERE IS STILL SNOW ON THE GROUND.
EXPECT SINGLE DIGITS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA WITH
TEENS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON THURSDAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION.

CLEAR SKIES WILL START TO CLOUD UP AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT WE MIGHT
START TO SEE OUR FIRST FLAKES FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES THE POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON`S BAY...
A RIDGE INVOF THE WEST COAST OF NOAM AND A SOUTHERN STREAM CUT OFF
LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA...THAT MAY FINALLY EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THESE FEATURES WILL GUIDE S/WV ENERGY
THRU A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EAST CONUS. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED...LEADING TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF A CLIPPER
SYSTEM INVOF CAPE COD ON FRI...AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY S/WV RIDGING
FOR A BRIEF TIME OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A PRIMARY
S/WV ENTERS THE NORTHERN INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED
BY SEVERAL OTHER PIECES OF ENERGY EXTENDING FROM HUDSON`S BAY TO
THE GULF COAST. THE DEGREE OF PHASING THESE FEATURES UNDERGO AS THEY
TRAVERSE THE EAST CONUS TROUGH...AND REDEVELOPMENT INVOF THE EAST
COAST...PRESENTS THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST. AT THE
D+5 TIME FRAME...IT/S TO EARLY TO LOCK ONTO ANY SPECIFICS...BUT THE
NAO IS PROJECTED TO GO FROM NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE WHICH IS TYPICALLY
FAVORABLE FOR EAST COAST CYCLOGENISIS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SKIES START TO CLOUD UP DURING
THE MORNING IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. CEILINGS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST...BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY BY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN SNOW SQUALLS. NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM TONIGHT ON THE
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN IS NOW
IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE UPPER
DELAWARE BAY HAS BEEN CANCELED AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

WINDS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
ACROSS OUR AREA. SEAS ARE ALSO STARTING TO DECREASE. EXPECT BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS TO FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA LATER
TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH LIGHT
EASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.
SUN...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON...WINDS AND SEAS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/MEOLA
MARINE...FRANCK/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 281445
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
945 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST OF 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. THE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY COLD TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER OUTSIDE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW
WEAKENS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. FULL SUNSHINE AND ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD ALL HELP MODERATE THE AIRMASS A BIT.

NONETHELESS, WE ARE IN STORE FOR ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY.
FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST, TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE
AND EVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE IN SOME PLACES AFTER FACTORING A 2-3F
DEGREE MODEL COLD BIAS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DECOUPLE. ONCE DECOUPLING HAPPENS, AIRMASS WILL RADIATE QUITE
EFFECTIVELY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE OFFICIAL MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS ON THE COLD ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK. MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TO MID
TEENS IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST/DELMARVA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU THRU FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THU MORNING WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS WERE RAISED A BIT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE GFS 00Z IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE (MOSTLY LIKELY) PRECIPITATION AREAS SUPPORT SNOW
WITH AMTS PROBABLY IN THE 1 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE 2
INCH AMTS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH OVER NRN NJ OR THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE
GONE ALONG WITH THE TOTALS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WWD.
WINDS AND BECOMING VERY COLD LATER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS OVER PHL AND DELMARVA BY
EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BITTER COLD SAT WITH TEMPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN...BUT STILL MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FLAGS FOR WIND CHILL POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN
SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS
MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION.
CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS
IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUE...ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE AND PROBABLY INTO WED. TEMPS POSSIBLY 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING AND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEST LATE.

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN THU NIGHT. LINGERING
SHOWERS EARLY FRI WITH GUSTY WINDS.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA WATERS TODAY. ONLY CHANGE WAS
TO EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE DE BAY TO 6 PM
(MATCHING THE ENDING TIME OF THE COASTAL WATERS) AS THE NW
DIRECTION WILL CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY, ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR
25 KT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE VERIFIED 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL ZONES, SO INCREASED SEAS A BIT TO 5-8 FT
FOR THIS MORNING.

NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT...BUILDING WINDS/SEAS SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 281445
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
945 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST OF 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. THE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY COLD TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER OUTSIDE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW
WEAKENS TO OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. FULL SUNSHINE AND ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD ALL HELP MODERATE THE AIRMASS A BIT.

NONETHELESS, WE ARE IN STORE FOR ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY.
FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST, TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE
AND EVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE IN SOME PLACES AFTER FACTORING A 2-3F
DEGREE MODEL COLD BIAS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DECOUPLE. ONCE DECOUPLING HAPPENS, AIRMASS WILL RADIATE QUITE
EFFECTIVELY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE OFFICIAL MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS ON THE COLD ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK. MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TO MID
TEENS IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST/DELMARVA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU THRU FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THU MORNING WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS WERE RAISED A BIT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE GFS 00Z IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE (MOSTLY LIKELY) PRECIPITATION AREAS SUPPORT SNOW
WITH AMTS PROBABLY IN THE 1 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE 2
INCH AMTS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH OVER NRN NJ OR THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE
GONE ALONG WITH THE TOTALS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WWD.
WINDS AND BECOMING VERY COLD LATER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS OVER PHL AND DELMARVA BY
EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BITTER COLD SAT WITH TEMPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN...BUT STILL MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FLAGS FOR WIND CHILL POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN
SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS
MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION.
CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS
IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUE...ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE AND PROBABLY INTO WED. TEMPS POSSIBLY 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING AND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEST LATE.

THU NIGHT THRU FRI...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN THU NIGHT. LINGERING
SHOWERS EARLY FRI WITH GUSTY WINDS.

FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA WATERS TODAY. ONLY CHANGE WAS
TO EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE DE BAY TO 6 PM
(MATCHING THE ENDING TIME OF THE COASTAL WATERS) AS THE NW
DIRECTION WILL CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY, ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR
25 KT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE VERIFIED 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL ZONES, SO INCREASED SEAS A BIT TO 5-8 FT
FOR THIS MORNING.

NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT...BUILDING WINDS/SEAS SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 280911
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STRONG COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO NEW
ENGLAND IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST OF 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. TODAY WILL START OUT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOWEST REPORTED WIND CHILL EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS -11F AT MPO.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW WEAKENS TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FULL
SUNSHINE AND ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD ALL HELP MODERATE THE AIRMASS A BIT. NONETHELESS, WE ARE IN
STORE FOR ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY. FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST,
TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE AND EVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
SOME PLACES AFTER FACTORING A 2-3F DEGREE MODEL COLD BIAS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DECOUPLE. ONCE DECOUPLING HAPPENS, AIRMASS WILL RADIATE QUITE
EFFECTIVELY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE OFFICIAL MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS ON THE COLD ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK. MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TO MID
TEENS IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST/DELMARVA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU THRU FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THU MORNING WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS WERE RAISED A BIT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE GFS 00Z IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE (MOSTLY LIKELY) PRECIPITATION AREAS SUPPORT SNOW
WITH AMTS PROBABLY IN THE 1 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE 2
INCH AMTS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH OVER NRN NJ OR THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE
GONE ALONG WITH THE TOTALS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WWD.
WINDS AND BECOMING VERY COLD LATER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS OVER PHL AND DELMARVA BY
EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BITTER COLD SAT WITH TEMPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN...BUT STILL MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FLAGS FOR WIND CHILL POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN
SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS
MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION.
CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS
IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUE...ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE AND PROBABLY INTO WED. TEMPS POSSIBLY 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING AND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEST LATE.
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN THU NIGHT.
  LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY FRI WITH GUSTY WINDS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SUN AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE DE BAY TO 6 PM (MATCHING
THE ENDING TIME OF THE COASTAL WATERS) AS THE NW DIRECTION WILL
CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY, ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR 25 KT. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE VERIFIED 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL
ZONES, SO INCREASED SEAS A BIT TO 5-8 FT FOR THIS MORNING.

NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT...BUILDING WINDS/SEAS SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.




&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280911
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STRONG COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO NEW
ENGLAND IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST OF 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. TODAY WILL START OUT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOWEST REPORTED WIND CHILL EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS -11F AT MPO.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW WEAKENS TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FULL
SUNSHINE AND ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD ALL HELP MODERATE THE AIRMASS A BIT. NONETHELESS, WE ARE IN
STORE FOR ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY. FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST,
TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE AND EVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
SOME PLACES AFTER FACTORING A 2-3F DEGREE MODEL COLD BIAS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DECOUPLE. ONCE DECOUPLING HAPPENS, AIRMASS WILL RADIATE QUITE
EFFECTIVELY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE OFFICIAL MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS ON THE COLD ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK. MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TO MID
TEENS IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST/DELMARVA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU THRU FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THU MORNING WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS WERE RAISED A BIT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE GFS 00Z IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE (MOSTLY LIKELY) PRECIPITATION AREAS SUPPORT SNOW
WITH AMTS PROBABLY IN THE 1 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE 2
INCH AMTS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH OVER NRN NJ OR THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE
GONE ALONG WITH THE TOTALS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WWD.
WINDS AND BECOMING VERY COLD LATER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS OVER PHL AND DELMARVA BY
EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BITTER COLD SAT WITH TEMPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN...BUT STILL MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FLAGS FOR WIND CHILL POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN
SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS
MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION.
CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS
IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUE...ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE AND PROBABLY INTO WED. TEMPS POSSIBLY 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING AND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEST LATE.
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN THU NIGHT.
  LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY FRI WITH GUSTY WINDS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SUN AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE DE BAY TO 6 PM (MATCHING
THE ENDING TIME OF THE COASTAL WATERS) AS THE NW DIRECTION WILL
CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY, ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR 25 KT. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE VERIFIED 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL
ZONES, SO INCREASED SEAS A BIT TO 5-8 FT FOR THIS MORNING.

NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT...BUILDING WINDS/SEAS SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.




&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 280911
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STRONG COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO NEW
ENGLAND IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST OF 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. TODAY WILL START OUT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOWEST REPORTED WIND CHILL EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS -11F AT MPO.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW WEAKENS TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FULL
SUNSHINE AND ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD ALL HELP MODERATE THE AIRMASS A BIT. NONETHELESS, WE ARE IN
STORE FOR ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY. FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST,
TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE AND EVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
SOME PLACES AFTER FACTORING A 2-3F DEGREE MODEL COLD BIAS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DECOUPLE. ONCE DECOUPLING HAPPENS, AIRMASS WILL RADIATE QUITE
EFFECTIVELY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE OFFICIAL MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS ON THE COLD ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK. MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TO MID
TEENS IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST/DELMARVA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU THRU FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THU MORNING WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS WERE RAISED A BIT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE GFS 00Z IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE (MOSTLY LIKELY) PRECIPITATION AREAS SUPPORT SNOW
WITH AMTS PROBABLY IN THE 1 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE 2
INCH AMTS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH OVER NRN NJ OR THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE
GONE ALONG WITH THE TOTALS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WWD.
WINDS AND BECOMING VERY COLD LATER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS OVER PHL AND DELMARVA BY
EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BITTER COLD SAT WITH TEMPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN...BUT STILL MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FLAGS FOR WIND CHILL POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN
SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS
MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION.
CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS
IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUE...ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE AND PROBABLY INTO WED. TEMPS POSSIBLY 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING AND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEST LATE.
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN THU NIGHT.
  LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY FRI WITH GUSTY WINDS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SUN AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE DE BAY TO 6 PM (MATCHING
THE ENDING TIME OF THE COASTAL WATERS) AS THE NW DIRECTION WILL
CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY, ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR 25 KT. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE VERIFIED 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL
ZONES, SO INCREASED SEAS A BIT TO 5-8 FT FOR THIS MORNING.

NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT...BUILDING WINDS/SEAS SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.




&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 280911
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND CAUSE AN ARCTIC FRONT TO CROSS OUR REGION. MORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A STORM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STRONG COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO NEW
ENGLAND IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS PRODUCING A SUSTAINED
NORTHWEST OF 10-20 MPH WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. TODAY WILL START OUT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOWEST REPORTED WIND CHILL EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS -11F AT MPO.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND FIELD WILL GRADUALLY RELAX
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS OUR REGION AS THE COASTAL LOW WEAKENS TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. FULL
SUNSHINE AND ADIABATIC WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD ALL HELP MODERATE THE AIRMASS A BIT. NONETHELESS, WE ARE IN
STORE FOR ANOTHER COLDER THAN NORMAL DAY. FOR THE MAX TEMP FORECAST,
TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE AND EVEN ABOVE GUIDANCE IN
SOME PLACES AFTER FACTORING A 2-3F DEGREE MODEL COLD BIAS YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER RIDGE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING WILL BUILD DIRECTLY OVERHEAD DURING
THE OVERNIGHT.

MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN
DECOUPLE. ONCE DECOUPLING HAPPENS, AIRMASS WILL RADIATE QUITE
EFFECTIVELY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE OFFICIAL MIN TEMP
FORECAST IS ON THE COLD ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP AND WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK. MIN
TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND EAST OF I-95 AND LOW TO MID
TEENS IN THE CITIES AND ALONG THE COAST/DELMARVA WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO WEAKEN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THU THRU FRIDAY...A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES THU MORNING WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THU NIGHT
AND THEN DEEPEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
POPS WERE RAISED A BIT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. THE GFS 00Z IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES IN THE (MOSTLY LIKELY) PRECIPITATION AREAS SUPPORT SNOW
WITH AMTS PROBABLY IN THE 1 INCH RANGE IN MOST AREAS. A COUPLE 2
INCH AMTS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH OVER NRN NJ OR THE SRN POCONOS. WE HAVE
GONE ALONG WITH THE TOTALS WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST WWD.
WINDS AND BECOMING VERY COLD LATER FRIDAY WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS OVER PHL AND DELMARVA BY
EVENING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS FOR
THE WEEKEND. BITTER COLD SAT WITH TEMPS SOME 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS SUN...BUT STILL MOSTLY 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FLAGS FOR WIND CHILL POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

SUN AFTERNOON THRU MON NIGHT...MORE WEATHER ACTION AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES FROM THE ROCKIES SAT NIGHT THEN TRACKS UP THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS OUR AREA SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN
SCOOPING UP PLENTY OF MOISTURE BEFORE IT ARRIVES. THE GFS SHOWS A
TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...THE EC JUST SOUTH. TEMPS AND POPS
MOSTLY WPC LIKE WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR BETTER ISC COORDINATION.
CHC SNOW SUN AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY SNOW SUN NIGHT. SNOW CHANGES TO
RAIN S/E I-95 MONDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF REFINEMENTS...SO THIS
IS THE BEST FCST FOR NOW. PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

TUE...ANOTHER DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH ANOTHER PLUNGE OF
ARCTIC AIR FOR TUE AND PROBABLY INTO WED. TEMPS POSSIBLY 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT THIS
MORNING AND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MOSTLY VFR. LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SNOW POSSIBLE WEST LATE.
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...LOWER CONDITIONS WITH PCPN THU NIGHT.
  LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY FRI WITH GUSTY WINDS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR. SMALL CHC FOR SNOW SUN AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS TODAY. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO
EXTEND THE ENDING TIME OF THE SCA FOR THE DE BAY TO 6 PM (MATCHING
THE ENDING TIME OF THE COASTAL WATERS) AS THE NW DIRECTION WILL
CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY, ENHANCING WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR 25 KT. WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE VERIFIED 1-2 FT TOO LOW WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE COASTAL
ZONES, SO INCREASED SEAS A BIT TO 5-8 FT FOR THIS MORNING.

NW WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
THU NIGHT...BUILDING WINDS/SEAS SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI/FRI NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SAT...GALE CONDITIONS DIMINISHING BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS.




&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280231
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
931 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY AND REFORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD, BREEZY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOSTLY
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM
PULLS FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15-20
MPH WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. THE FRESH
SNOW COVER UP NORTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS IN THE MID-TEENS TO AROUND 20 ARE EXPECTED
FURTHER SOUTH WERE THE SNOW COVER ISN/T AS DEEP OR WIDESPREAD. A
BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES,
UNDERCUT BY A DEGREE OR TWO UP NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
FOR MOST AREAS, AND CLOSE TO -10 TO -15 FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF CARBON/MONROE, PA AND SUSSEX, NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR MORNING
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHERN NJ (LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THE DEPARTING
LOW). NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP ONCE AGAIN AS DAYTIME MIXING TAKES
PLACE...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SUN BEGINS TO
SET AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO DECREASE. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FAR NORTH, AND IN THE LOW
30S SOUTH. AGAIN...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT CUT IN THE LOCATIONS OF DEEPER SNOWPACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AT 00Z THU IS COMPRISED OF A DEEP TROUGH AT
70W WITH A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
AND A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...S/WV RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE MID
ATL ON THU...THEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY IS
PROGGED TO PHASE INVOF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BECOME NEG
TILTED AS IT REACHES 70W AROUND 00Z SAT. THIS LEADS TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH REDEVELOPMENT
CURRENTLY MODELED INVOF GEORGES BANK ON FRI. BY SAT...NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A CLOSED
LOW INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS LEADS TO A COMPLEX AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE THRU THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PTYPE ISSUES LIKELY
WITH BOTH SYSTEMS...AS TEMPERATURES ROLLER COASTER FROM NEAR NORMAL
TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT AND THU...
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THU AM AS
ATMOS DECOUPLES WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW
COVER. EXPECTING MIN TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL REGION-
WIDE. ON THU LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND MODEL X-SECS
INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
PRECIP IN PRIOR TO 00Z ALONG AND WEST OF THE DE RIVER...AND THIS
TIMING IS REFLECTED IN THE FCSR. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THRU THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST...
AND THUS RESULTANT QPF BULLSEYE. ATTM...MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY A
TRACE OVER THE DELMARVA TO 0.2 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES AND THUS PTYPE.
THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH HIGH
PRES OFFSHORE AND THE ABSENCE OF AN INVERSION. NEVERTHELESS...LOW
PRES WELL NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INSUFFICIENT
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW EVENT
WITH CURRENT PROFILES CONFINING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST NJ...DE...AND MD
WHERE MODEL QPF IS LIGHTEST. EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 5:1 TO 10:1 WHICH WOULD GIVE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH INVOF
I-95 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST...BUT THIS IS PRELIMINARY...
STAY TUNED. PRECIP ENDS EARLY FRI WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AS LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS EAST OF NEW ENG...AS TEMPS FALL THRU
THE DAY AFTER MORNING MAXS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SQUALLS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE POCONOS...WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI AFTN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 850 HPA
WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE COMBINATION
OF BLUSTERY WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO LOW WIND CHILLS...THEREFORE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SAT AND SUN...
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION ON SAT GRADUALLY GIVES WAY
TO BRIEF RIDGING ON SUN. ON SAT THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT...ASIDE
FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATOCUMULUS BENEATH A MODELED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WITH ONE LAST BRISK DAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW. MID LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY BECOMES SOUTHWEST...AND
THE COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...
COMPLICATED FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX APPROACHES
THE COAST WITH DUAL JET SETUP FAVORING REDEVELOPMENT INVOF MID ATL
OR NEW ENGLAND. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY FAVOR SNOW WITH
RAIN MIXING IN CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN...WHICH
WOULD BRING SNOW FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. ANY WINTER WX
WOULD BE EXACERBATED BY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...MAKING
SURFACES MORE PRONE TO ICING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES. THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AROUND, BUT WE EXPECT
MOSTLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS, WITH IN AND OUT GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KNOTS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS
SHOULD DROP OFF DURING THE NIGHT AS MIXING WEAKENS, BUT THERE
COULD STILL BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VFR DAY WITH FREQUENT NORTHWEST GUSTS AGAIN
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. GUSTS WILL AGAIN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VFR FOR MUCH OF THU. LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT
BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH THE
SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
WITH THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WIND GUSTS HAVE TAPERED OFF IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SCA GUSTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TILL
AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY IN ALL MARINE ZONES, WITH SOME SCATTERED SCA
GUSTS THROUGH 23Z. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND FIVE FEET. SCA REMAINS THROUGH 23Z WEDNESDAY
ON THE OCEAN, AND 18Z ON THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...NEAR GALE-FORCE NW GUSTS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE GUSTS. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY EARLY.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280231
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
931 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY AND REFORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD, BREEZY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOSTLY
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM
PULLS FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15-20
MPH WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. THE FRESH
SNOW COVER UP NORTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS IN THE MID-TEENS TO AROUND 20 ARE EXPECTED
FURTHER SOUTH WERE THE SNOW COVER ISN/T AS DEEP OR WIDESPREAD. A
BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES,
UNDERCUT BY A DEGREE OR TWO UP NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
FOR MOST AREAS, AND CLOSE TO -10 TO -15 FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF CARBON/MONROE, PA AND SUSSEX, NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR MORNING
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHERN NJ (LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THE DEPARTING
LOW). NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP ONCE AGAIN AS DAYTIME MIXING TAKES
PLACE...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SUN BEGINS TO
SET AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO DECREASE. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FAR NORTH, AND IN THE LOW
30S SOUTH. AGAIN...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT CUT IN THE LOCATIONS OF DEEPER SNOWPACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AT 00Z THU IS COMPRISED OF A DEEP TROUGH AT
70W WITH A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
AND A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...S/WV RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE MID
ATL ON THU...THEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY IS
PROGGED TO PHASE INVOF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BECOME NEG
TILTED AS IT REACHES 70W AROUND 00Z SAT. THIS LEADS TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH REDEVELOPMENT
CURRENTLY MODELED INVOF GEORGES BANK ON FRI. BY SAT...NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A CLOSED
LOW INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS LEADS TO A COMPLEX AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE THRU THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PTYPE ISSUES LIKELY
WITH BOTH SYSTEMS...AS TEMPERATURES ROLLER COASTER FROM NEAR NORMAL
TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT AND THU...
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THU AM AS
ATMOS DECOUPLES WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW
COVER. EXPECTING MIN TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL REGION-
WIDE. ON THU LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND MODEL X-SECS
INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
PRECIP IN PRIOR TO 00Z ALONG AND WEST OF THE DE RIVER...AND THIS
TIMING IS REFLECTED IN THE FCSR. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THRU THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST...
AND THUS RESULTANT QPF BULLSEYE. ATTM...MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY A
TRACE OVER THE DELMARVA TO 0.2 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES AND THUS PTYPE.
THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH HIGH
PRES OFFSHORE AND THE ABSENCE OF AN INVERSION. NEVERTHELESS...LOW
PRES WELL NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INSUFFICIENT
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW EVENT
WITH CURRENT PROFILES CONFINING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST NJ...DE...AND MD
WHERE MODEL QPF IS LIGHTEST. EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 5:1 TO 10:1 WHICH WOULD GIVE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH INVOF
I-95 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST...BUT THIS IS PRELIMINARY...
STAY TUNED. PRECIP ENDS EARLY FRI WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AS LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS EAST OF NEW ENG...AS TEMPS FALL THRU
THE DAY AFTER MORNING MAXS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SQUALLS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE POCONOS...WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI AFTN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 850 HPA
WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE COMBINATION
OF BLUSTERY WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO LOW WIND CHILLS...THEREFORE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SAT AND SUN...
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION ON SAT GRADUALLY GIVES WAY
TO BRIEF RIDGING ON SUN. ON SAT THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT...ASIDE
FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATOCUMULUS BENEATH A MODELED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WITH ONE LAST BRISK DAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW. MID LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY BECOMES SOUTHWEST...AND
THE COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...
COMPLICATED FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX APPROACHES
THE COAST WITH DUAL JET SETUP FAVORING REDEVELOPMENT INVOF MID ATL
OR NEW ENGLAND. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY FAVOR SNOW WITH
RAIN MIXING IN CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN...WHICH
WOULD BRING SNOW FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. ANY WINTER WX
WOULD BE EXACERBATED BY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...MAKING
SURFACES MORE PRONE TO ICING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES. THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AROUND, BUT WE EXPECT
MOSTLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS, WITH IN AND OUT GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KNOTS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS
SHOULD DROP OFF DURING THE NIGHT AS MIXING WEAKENS, BUT THERE
COULD STILL BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VFR DAY WITH FREQUENT NORTHWEST GUSTS AGAIN
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. GUSTS WILL AGAIN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VFR FOR MUCH OF THU. LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT
BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH THE
SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
WITH THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WIND GUSTS HAVE TAPERED OFF IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SCA GUSTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TILL
AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY IN ALL MARINE ZONES, WITH SOME SCATTERED SCA
GUSTS THROUGH 23Z. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND FIVE FEET. SCA REMAINS THROUGH 23Z WEDNESDAY
ON THE OCEAN, AND 18Z ON THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...NEAR GALE-FORCE NW GUSTS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE GUSTS. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY EARLY.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES






000
FXUS61 KPHI 280231
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
931 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY AND REFORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD, BREEZY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOSTLY
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM
PULLS FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15-20
MPH WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. THE FRESH
SNOW COVER UP NORTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS IN THE MID-TEENS TO AROUND 20 ARE EXPECTED
FURTHER SOUTH WERE THE SNOW COVER ISN/T AS DEEP OR WIDESPREAD. A
BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES,
UNDERCUT BY A DEGREE OR TWO UP NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
FOR MOST AREAS, AND CLOSE TO -10 TO -15 FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF CARBON/MONROE, PA AND SUSSEX, NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR MORNING
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHERN NJ (LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THE DEPARTING
LOW). NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP ONCE AGAIN AS DAYTIME MIXING TAKES
PLACE...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SUN BEGINS TO
SET AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO DECREASE. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FAR NORTH, AND IN THE LOW
30S SOUTH. AGAIN...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT CUT IN THE LOCATIONS OF DEEPER SNOWPACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AT 00Z THU IS COMPRISED OF A DEEP TROUGH AT
70W WITH A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
AND A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...S/WV RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE MID
ATL ON THU...THEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY IS
PROGGED TO PHASE INVOF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BECOME NEG
TILTED AS IT REACHES 70W AROUND 00Z SAT. THIS LEADS TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH REDEVELOPMENT
CURRENTLY MODELED INVOF GEORGES BANK ON FRI. BY SAT...NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A CLOSED
LOW INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS LEADS TO A COMPLEX AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE THRU THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PTYPE ISSUES LIKELY
WITH BOTH SYSTEMS...AS TEMPERATURES ROLLER COASTER FROM NEAR NORMAL
TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT AND THU...
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THU AM AS
ATMOS DECOUPLES WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW
COVER. EXPECTING MIN TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL REGION-
WIDE. ON THU LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND MODEL X-SECS
INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
PRECIP IN PRIOR TO 00Z ALONG AND WEST OF THE DE RIVER...AND THIS
TIMING IS REFLECTED IN THE FCSR. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THRU THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST...
AND THUS RESULTANT QPF BULLSEYE. ATTM...MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY A
TRACE OVER THE DELMARVA TO 0.2 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES AND THUS PTYPE.
THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH HIGH
PRES OFFSHORE AND THE ABSENCE OF AN INVERSION. NEVERTHELESS...LOW
PRES WELL NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INSUFFICIENT
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW EVENT
WITH CURRENT PROFILES CONFINING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST NJ...DE...AND MD
WHERE MODEL QPF IS LIGHTEST. EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 5:1 TO 10:1 WHICH WOULD GIVE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH INVOF
I-95 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST...BUT THIS IS PRELIMINARY...
STAY TUNED. PRECIP ENDS EARLY FRI WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AS LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS EAST OF NEW ENG...AS TEMPS FALL THRU
THE DAY AFTER MORNING MAXS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SQUALLS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE POCONOS...WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI AFTN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 850 HPA
WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE COMBINATION
OF BLUSTERY WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO LOW WIND CHILLS...THEREFORE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SAT AND SUN...
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION ON SAT GRADUALLY GIVES WAY
TO BRIEF RIDGING ON SUN. ON SAT THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT...ASIDE
FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATOCUMULUS BENEATH A MODELED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WITH ONE LAST BRISK DAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW. MID LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY BECOMES SOUTHWEST...AND
THE COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...
COMPLICATED FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX APPROACHES
THE COAST WITH DUAL JET SETUP FAVORING REDEVELOPMENT INVOF MID ATL
OR NEW ENGLAND. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY FAVOR SNOW WITH
RAIN MIXING IN CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN...WHICH
WOULD BRING SNOW FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. ANY WINTER WX
WOULD BE EXACERBATED BY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...MAKING
SURFACES MORE PRONE TO ICING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES. THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AROUND, BUT WE EXPECT
MOSTLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS, WITH IN AND OUT GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KNOTS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS
SHOULD DROP OFF DURING THE NIGHT AS MIXING WEAKENS, BUT THERE
COULD STILL BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VFR DAY WITH FREQUENT NORTHWEST GUSTS AGAIN
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. GUSTS WILL AGAIN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VFR FOR MUCH OF THU. LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT
BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH THE
SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
WITH THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WIND GUSTS HAVE TAPERED OFF IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SCA GUSTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TILL
AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY IN ALL MARINE ZONES, WITH SOME SCATTERED SCA
GUSTS THROUGH 23Z. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND FIVE FEET. SCA REMAINS THROUGH 23Z WEDNESDAY
ON THE OCEAN, AND 18Z ON THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...NEAR GALE-FORCE NW GUSTS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE GUSTS. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY EARLY.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280231
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
931 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY AND REFORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD, BREEZY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MOSTLY
MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE STORM
PULLS FARTHER AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15-20
MPH WILL CONTINUE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH AT TIMES. THE FRESH
SNOW COVER UP NORTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. LOWS IN THE MID-TEENS TO AROUND 20 ARE EXPECTED
FURTHER SOUTH WERE THE SNOW COVER ISN/T AS DEEP OR WIDESPREAD. A
BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES,
UNDERCUT BY A DEGREE OR TWO UP NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOW COVER.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
FOR MOST AREAS, AND CLOSE TO -10 TO -15 FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF CARBON/MONROE, PA AND SUSSEX, NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR MORNING
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHERN NJ (LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THE DEPARTING
LOW). NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP ONCE AGAIN AS DAYTIME MIXING TAKES
PLACE...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SUN BEGINS TO
SET AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO DECREASE. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FAR NORTH, AND IN THE LOW
30S SOUTH. AGAIN...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT CUT IN THE LOCATIONS OF DEEPER SNOWPACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AT 00Z THU IS COMPRISED OF A DEEP TROUGH AT
70W WITH A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
AND A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...S/WV RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE MID
ATL ON THU...THEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY IS
PROGGED TO PHASE INVOF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BECOME NEG
TILTED AS IT REACHES 70W AROUND 00Z SAT. THIS LEADS TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH REDEVELOPMENT
CURRENTLY MODELED INVOF GEORGES BANK ON FRI. BY SAT...NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A CLOSED
LOW INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS LEADS TO A COMPLEX AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE THRU THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PTYPE ISSUES LIKELY
WITH BOTH SYSTEMS...AS TEMPERATURES ROLLER COASTER FROM NEAR NORMAL
TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT AND THU...
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THU AM AS
ATMOS DECOUPLES WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW
COVER. EXPECTING MIN TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL REGION-
WIDE. ON THU LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND MODEL X-SECS
INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
PRECIP IN PRIOR TO 00Z ALONG AND WEST OF THE DE RIVER...AND THIS
TIMING IS REFLECTED IN THE FCSR. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THRU THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST...
AND THUS RESULTANT QPF BULLSEYE. ATTM...MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY A
TRACE OVER THE DELMARVA TO 0.2 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES AND THUS PTYPE.
THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH HIGH
PRES OFFSHORE AND THE ABSENCE OF AN INVERSION. NEVERTHELESS...LOW
PRES WELL NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INSUFFICIENT
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW EVENT
WITH CURRENT PROFILES CONFINING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST NJ...DE...AND MD
WHERE MODEL QPF IS LIGHTEST. EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 5:1 TO 10:1 WHICH WOULD GIVE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH INVOF
I-95 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST...BUT THIS IS PRELIMINARY...
STAY TUNED. PRECIP ENDS EARLY FRI WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AS LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS EAST OF NEW ENG...AS TEMPS FALL THRU
THE DAY AFTER MORNING MAXS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SQUALLS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE POCONOS...WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI AFTN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 850 HPA
WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE COMBINATION
OF BLUSTERY WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO LOW WIND CHILLS...THEREFORE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SAT AND SUN...
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION ON SAT GRADUALLY GIVES WAY
TO BRIEF RIDGING ON SUN. ON SAT THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT...ASIDE
FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATOCUMULUS BENEATH A MODELED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WITH ONE LAST BRISK DAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW. MID LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY BECOMES SOUTHWEST...AND
THE COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...
COMPLICATED FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX APPROACHES
THE COAST WITH DUAL JET SETUP FAVORING REDEVELOPMENT INVOF MID ATL
OR NEW ENGLAND. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY FAVOR SNOW WITH
RAIN MIXING IN CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN...WHICH
WOULD BRING SNOW FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. ANY WINTER WX
WOULD BE EXACERBATED BY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...MAKING
SURFACES MORE PRONE TO ICING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES. THERE MAY
BE SOME LINGERING SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AROUND, BUT WE EXPECT
MOSTLY MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS, WITH IN AND OUT GUSTS AROUND
20-25 KNOTS INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS
SHOULD DROP OFF DURING THE NIGHT AS MIXING WEAKENS, BUT THERE
COULD STILL BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VFR DAY WITH FREQUENT NORTHWEST GUSTS AGAIN
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS. GUSTS WILL AGAIN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VFR FOR MUCH OF THU. LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT
BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH THE
SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
WITH THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WIND GUSTS HAVE TAPERED OFF IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SCA GUSTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TILL
AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY IN ALL MARINE ZONES, WITH SOME SCATTERED SCA
GUSTS THROUGH 23Z. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND FIVE FEET. SCA REMAINS THROUGH 23Z WEDNESDAY
ON THE OCEAN, AND 18Z ON THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...NEAR GALE-FORCE NW GUSTS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE GUSTS. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY EARLY.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GAINES/ROBERTSON
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES






000
FXUS61 KPHI 272056
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THRU THE GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY AND REFORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WERE CANCELED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY...BUT ANY SUCH ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINTRY WEATHER THE PAST
DAY OR SO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY MORNING. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY. ON THE OTHER HAND, NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE
AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
WEST PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR...THE FRESH SNOW
COVER UP NORTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. LOWS IN THE MID-TEENS TO AROUND 20 ARE EXPECTED FURTHER
SOUTH WERE THE SNOW COVER ISN/T AS DEEP OR WIDESPREAD. A BLEND OF
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, UNDERCUT BY A
DEGREE OR TWO UP NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOWCOVER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR MORNING
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHERN NJ (LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THE DEPARTING
LOW). NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP ONCE AGAIN AS DAYTIME MIXING TAKES
PLACE...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SUN BEGINS TO
SET AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO DECREASE. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FAR NORTH, AND IN THE LOW
30S SOUTH. AGAIN...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT CUT IN THE LOCATIONS OF DEEPER SNOWPACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AT 00Z THU IS COMPRISED OF A DEEP TROUGH AT
70W WITH A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
AND A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...S/WV RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE MID
ATL ON THU...THEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY IS
PROGGED TO PHASE INVOF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BECOME NEG
TILTED AS IT REACHES 70W AROUND 00Z SAT. THIS LEADS TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH REDEVELOPMENT
CURRENTLY MODELED INVOF GEORGES BANK ON FRI. BY SAT...NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A CLOSED
LOW INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS LEADS TO A COMPLEX AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE THRU THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PTYPE ISSUES LIKELY
WITH BOTH SYSTEMS...AS TEMPERATURES ROLLER COASTER FROM NEAR NORMAL
TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT AND THU...
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THU AM AS
ATMOS DECOUPLES WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW
COVER. EXPECTING MIN TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL REGION-
WIDE. ON THU LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND MODEL X-SECS
INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
PRECIP IN PRIOR TO 00Z ALONG AND WEST OF THE DE RIVER...AND THIS
TIMING IS REFLECTED IN THE FCSR. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THRU THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST...
AND THUS RESULTANT QPF BULLSEYE. ATTM...MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY A
TRACE OVER THE DELMARVA TO 0.2 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES AND THUS PTYPE.
THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH HIGH
PRES OFFSHORE AND THE ABSENCE OF AN INVERSION. NEVERTHELESS...LOW
PRES WELL NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INSUFFICIENT
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW EVENT
WITH CURRENT PROFILES CONFINING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST NJ...DE...AND MD
WHERE MODEL QPF IS LIGHTEST. EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 5:1 TO 10:1 WHICH WOULD GIVE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH INVOF
I-95 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST...BUT THIS IS PRELIMINARY...
STAY TUNED. PRECIP ENDS EARLY FRI WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AS LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS EAST OF NEW ENG...AS TEMPS FALL THRU
THE DAY AFTER MORNING MAXS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SQUALLS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE POCONOS...WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI AFTN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 850 HPA
WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE COMBINATION
OF BLUSTERY WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO LOW WIND CHILLS...THEREFORE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SAT AND SUN...
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION ON SAT GRADUALLY GIVES WAY
TO BRIEF RIDGING ON SUN. ON SAT THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT...ASIDE
FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATOCUMULUS BENEATH A MODELED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WITH ONE LAST BRISK DAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW. MID LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY BECOMES SOUTHWEST...AND
THE COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...
COMPLICATED FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX APPROACHES
THE COAST WITH DUAL JET SETUP FAVORING REDEVELOPMENT INVOF MID ATL
OR NEW ENGLAND. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY FAVOR SNOW WITH
RAIN MIXING IN CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN...WHICH
WOULD BRING SNOW FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. ANY WINTER WX
WOULD BE EXACERBATED BY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...MAKING
SURFACES MORE PRONE TO ICING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS HAVE GRADUALLY IMPROVED TO VFR AND SKIES WILL TRANSITION
TO BROKEN AND SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. FOR TONIGHT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2,000 FEET TO FORM.
HOWEVER, WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 10 KNOTS THERE IS
LITTLE TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS WILL OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VFR DAY WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS AGAIN AROUND 20
KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
WILL AGAIN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VFR FOR MUCH OF THU. LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT
BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH THE
SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
WITH THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WIND GUSTS HAVE TAPERED OFF IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SCA GUSTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TILL
AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY IN ALL MARINE ZONES, WITH SOME SCATTERED SCA
GUSTS THROUGH 23Z. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND FIVE FEET. WE HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF
THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED WITH A SCA THROUGH 23Z WEDNESDAY,
ENDING EARLIER ON THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...NEAR GALE-FORCE NW GUSTS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE GUSTS. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY EARLY.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GAINES
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES







000
FXUS61 KPHI 272056
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WILL REACH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THRU THE GREAT LAKES
ON THURSDAY AND REFORM EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WERE CANCELED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY...BUT ANY SUCH ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO END BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINTRY WEATHER THE PAST
DAY OR SO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY MORNING. SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THIS LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY. ON THE OTHER HAND, NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WILL CONTINUE
AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
WEST PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR...THE FRESH SNOW
COVER UP NORTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. LOWS IN THE MID-TEENS TO AROUND 20 ARE EXPECTED FURTHER
SOUTH WERE THE SNOW COVER ISN/T AS DEEP OR WIDESPREAD. A BLEND OF
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, UNDERCUT BY A
DEGREE OR TWO UP NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR SNOWCOVER.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR MORNING
CLOUDINESS IN NORTHERN NJ (LINGERING EFFECTS FROM THE DEPARTING
LOW). NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICKUP ONCE AGAIN AS DAYTIME MIXING TAKES
PLACE...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE IN THE DAY AS THE SUN BEGINS TO
SET AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO DECREASE. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FAR NORTH, AND IN THE LOW
30S SOUTH. AGAIN...A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT CUT IN THE LOCATIONS OF DEEPER SNOWPACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN AT 00Z THU IS COMPRISED OF A DEEP TROUGH AT
70W WITH A NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
AND A SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW INVOF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...S/WV RIDGE WILL CREST OVER THE MID
ATL ON THU...THEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY IS
PROGGED TO PHASE INVOF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BECOME NEG
TILTED AS IT REACHES 70W AROUND 00Z SAT. THIS LEADS TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THRU THE GREAT LAKES ON THU WITH REDEVELOPMENT
CURRENTLY MODELED INVOF GEORGES BANK ON FRI. BY SAT...NORTHERN
STREAM S/WV ENERGY ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM S/WV ENERGY EJECTING OUT OF A CLOSED
LOW INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS LEADS TO A COMPLEX AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO MOVE THRU THE
APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRI AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH PTYPE ISSUES LIKELY
WITH BOTH SYSTEMS...AS TEMPERATURES ROLLER COASTER FROM NEAR NORMAL
TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

WED NIGHT AND THU...
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES CRESTS OVER THE
REGION. EXPECTING IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING THU AM AS
ATMOS DECOUPLES WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND FRESH SNOW
COVER. EXPECTING MIN TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL REGION-
WIDE. ON THU LARGE SCALE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND MODEL X-SECS
INDICATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING
PRECIP IN PRIOR TO 00Z ALONG AND WEST OF THE DE RIVER...AND THIS
TIMING IS REFLECTED IN THE FCSR. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THU NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THRU THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST...
AND THUS RESULTANT QPF BULLSEYE. ATTM...MODEL QPF IS GENERALLY A
TRACE OVER THE DELMARVA TO 0.2 INCHES OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY IS IN MODEL THERMAL PROFILES AND THUS PTYPE.
THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION WITH HIGH
PRES OFFSHORE AND THE ABSENCE OF AN INVERSION. NEVERTHELESS...LOW
PRES WELL NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INSUFFICIENT
FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A RAIN/SNOW EVENT
WITH CURRENT PROFILES CONFINING RAIN TO SOUTHEAST NJ...DE...AND MD
WHERE MODEL QPF IS LIGHTEST. EXPECTING SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS RANGING
FROM 5:1 TO 10:1 WHICH WOULD GIVE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH INVOF
I-95 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST...BUT THIS IS PRELIMINARY...
STAY TUNED. PRECIP ENDS EARLY FRI WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
AS LOW PRESSURE REDEVELOPS EAST OF NEW ENG...AS TEMPS FALL THRU
THE DAY AFTER MORNING MAXS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SQUALLS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE POCONOS...WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FRI AFTN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 850 HPA
WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE COMBINATION
OF BLUSTERY WINDS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL LEAD TO LOW WIND CHILLS...THEREFORE...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

SAT AND SUN...
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION ON SAT GRADUALLY GIVES WAY
TO BRIEF RIDGING ON SUN. ON SAT THE COLUMN WILL DRY OUT...ASIDE
FOR POSSIBILITY OF STRATOCUMULUS BENEATH A MODELED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION...WITH ONE LAST BRISK DAY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW. MID LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY BECOMES SOUTHWEST...AND
THE COLUMN WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...
COMPLICATED FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE APPALACHIANS
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX APPROACHES
THE COAST WITH DUAL JET SETUP FAVORING REDEVELOPMENT INVOF MID ATL
OR NEW ENGLAND. ATTM...THERMAL PROFILES GENERALLY FAVOR SNOW WITH
RAIN MIXING IN CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
REDEVELOPMENT COULD LEAD TO COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN IN...WHICH
WOULD BRING SNOW FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. ANY WINTER WX
WOULD BE EXACERBATED BY COLD ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...MAKING
SURFACES MORE PRONE TO ICING.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS HAVE GRADUALLY IMPROVED TO VFR AND SKIES WILL TRANSITION
TO BROKEN AND SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. FOR TONIGHT THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2,000 FEET TO FORM.
HOWEVER, WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 10 KNOTS THERE IS
LITTLE TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS WILL OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VFR DAY WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS AGAIN AROUND 20
KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
WILL AGAIN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VFR FOR MUCH OF THU. LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THU NIGHT
BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH THE
SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH NW WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR WITH GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

SATURDAY...VFR.

SUNDAY...LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE
WITH THE SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WIND GUSTS HAVE TAPERED OFF IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH SCA GUSTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TILL
AROUND 18Z WEDNESDAY IN ALL MARINE ZONES, WITH SOME SCATTERED SCA
GUSTS THROUGH 23Z. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON TO AROUND FIVE FEET. WE HAVE CANCELLED THE REMAINDER OF
THE GALE WARNING AND REPLACED WITH A SCA THROUGH 23Z WEDNESDAY,
ENDING EARLIER ON THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...NEAR GALE-FORCE NW GUSTS BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE GUSTS. FREEZING
SPRAY LIKELY.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY EARLY.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GAINES
MARINE...FRANCK/GAINES








000
FXUS61 KPHI 271844
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
144 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RECENT SNOW WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE
REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS/ZONES TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY AND WARNING
AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SNOWED ITSELF OUT.

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER A GOOD PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF PHILA. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
DAY...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME BRIGHTER SPOTS TOWARD BERKS COUNTY.
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 20 FAR NORTH, UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE PHL
METRO AREA...AND MID 30S FAR SOUTH.

WE CONTINUE TO ISSUE UPDATED PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
CONTAINING THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS. WE THANK ALL THOSE WHO
HAVE GONE OUT AND MEASURED THEIR SNOW AND REPORTED TO US. IT
REALLY HELPS OUR FORECAST PROCESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY MENTION OF
PRECIP WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SRN POCONOS AND CLOSER TO NYC AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TO CLR FROM THE SW TO NE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S OVER MOST AREAS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGIT
READINGS OVER THE SRN POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW WILL STEADILY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE 5-10F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, DID LEAN ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND  ADIABATIC
WARMING FROM A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE STRONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE I-95 URBAN CORRIDOR, ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE DELMARVA AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. MIN TEMP FORECAST
WAS A BLEND BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST (WHICH WAS THE COLDER THAN ANY
00Z GUIDANCE) AND THE 00Z NAM.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
STATES ON FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
AND DPVA WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHEASTERN PA LATE IN DAY THURSDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE (PWAT APPROACH 0.6 INCHES) TO WORK
WITH THAN WHAT TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIES CLIPPERS AS IT IS ABLE TO TAP
INTO LIMITED GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE LOW IS AND THE FACT THAT IT IS NOT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL IT REACHES THE GULF OF MAINE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT: 1-3 INCHES IN THE POCONOS AND EXTREME NW NJ, LESS THAN AN
INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE AM WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. BRISK NW WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUST 30-40 MPH
ASSUMING DEEP MIXING IS REALIZED ON LAND. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS.

DAYS 4.5-7 OF THE FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 05Z/27 WPC ELEMENTS
OF TT/TD/WIND/SKY/POP. WE ADJUSTED THE WPC TEMPS MUCH HIGHER SUN
NIGHT AND A BIT HIGHER MONDAY PER NEW 00Z/27 MODE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOW PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION IN THIS TIME FRAME.

FRI NIGHT...VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL. NW FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD STILL HAVE GUSTY
WINDS WITH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...FAIR AND VERY COLD. AVERAGE TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SUNDAY...MODERATING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND PCPN
OF SOME SORT EXPECTED AT NIGHT. HIGHLY VARIABLE SET OF SOLUTIONS AND
CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS/PTYPE IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

MONDAY...MAYBE SOME LEFT OVER PCPN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
THEN DRYING OUT AND TURNING COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS HAVE GRADUALLY IMPROVED TO VFR AND SKIES WILL
TRANSITION TO BROKEN AND SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO VFR BY 20Z. NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. FOR
TONIGHT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2,000 FEET
TO FORM. HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 10 KNOTS
THERE IS LITTLE TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS WILL OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VFR DAY WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS AGAIN AROUND 20
KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
WILL AGAIN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KT IN
THE DAY, BECOMING CALM AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...VFR TO FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH BLUSTERY NW WIND GUSTING TO 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STORM WARNINGS CHANGED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR NJ WATERS.

DEEP LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GALE GUSTS EXPECTED AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BACK BELOW
GALE STRENGTH LATER...BUT THE DAY SHIFT CAN MAKE THAT CALL LATER.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH FREEZING SPRAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY- NEAR GALE-FORCE GUSTS BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

FRI NIGHT: POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NJ/DEL SHORE AND DEL BAY PRODUCED
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING, BUT NOTHING TOO SERIOUS. WITH A WELL-
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION, NO ADDITIONAL TIDAL
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 271844
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
144 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RECENT SNOW WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE
REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS/ZONES TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY AND WARNING
AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE HAS SNOWED ITSELF OUT.

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER A GOOD PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF PHILA. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
DAY...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME BRIGHTER SPOTS TOWARD BERKS COUNTY.
HIGH TEMPS AROUND 20 FAR NORTH, UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 IN THE PHL
METRO AREA...AND MID 30S FAR SOUTH.

WE CONTINUE TO ISSUE UPDATED PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
CONTAINING THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS. WE THANK ALL THOSE WHO
HAVE GONE OUT AND MEASURED THEIR SNOW AND REPORTED TO US. IT
REALLY HELPS OUR FORECAST PROCESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY MENTION OF
PRECIP WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SRN POCONOS AND CLOSER TO NYC AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TO CLR FROM THE SW TO NE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S OVER MOST AREAS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGIT
READINGS OVER THE SRN POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW WILL STEADILY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE 5-10F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, DID LEAN ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND  ADIABATIC
WARMING FROM A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE STRONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE I-95 URBAN CORRIDOR, ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE DELMARVA AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. MIN TEMP FORECAST
WAS A BLEND BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST (WHICH WAS THE COLDER THAN ANY
00Z GUIDANCE) AND THE 00Z NAM.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
STATES ON FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
AND DPVA WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHEASTERN PA LATE IN DAY THURSDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE (PWAT APPROACH 0.6 INCHES) TO WORK
WITH THAN WHAT TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIES CLIPPERS AS IT IS ABLE TO TAP
INTO LIMITED GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE LOW IS AND THE FACT THAT IT IS NOT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL IT REACHES THE GULF OF MAINE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT: 1-3 INCHES IN THE POCONOS AND EXTREME NW NJ, LESS THAN AN
INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE AM WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. BRISK NW WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUST 30-40 MPH
ASSUMING DEEP MIXING IS REALIZED ON LAND. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS.

DAYS 4.5-7 OF THE FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 05Z/27 WPC ELEMENTS
OF TT/TD/WIND/SKY/POP. WE ADJUSTED THE WPC TEMPS MUCH HIGHER SUN
NIGHT AND A BIT HIGHER MONDAY PER NEW 00Z/27 MODE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOW PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION IN THIS TIME FRAME.

FRI NIGHT...VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL. NW FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD STILL HAVE GUSTY
WINDS WITH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...FAIR AND VERY COLD. AVERAGE TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SUNDAY...MODERATING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND PCPN
OF SOME SORT EXPECTED AT NIGHT. HIGHLY VARIABLE SET OF SOLUTIONS AND
CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS/PTYPE IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

MONDAY...MAYBE SOME LEFT OVER PCPN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
THEN DRYING OUT AND TURNING COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS HAVE GRADUALLY IMPROVED TO VFR AND SKIES WILL
TRANSITION TO BROKEN AND SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO VFR BY 20Z. NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. FOR
TONIGHT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2,000 FEET
TO FORM. HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 10 KNOTS
THERE IS LITTLE TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS WILL OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VFR DAY WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS AGAIN AROUND 20
KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
WILL AGAIN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KT IN
THE DAY, BECOMING CALM AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...VFR TO FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH BLUSTERY NW WIND GUSTING TO 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STORM WARNINGS CHANGED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR NJ WATERS.

DEEP LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GALE GUSTS EXPECTED AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BACK BELOW
GALE STRENGTH LATER...BUT THE DAY SHIFT CAN MAKE THAT CALL LATER.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH FREEZING SPRAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY- NEAR GALE-FORCE GUSTS BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

FRI NIGHT: POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NJ/DEL SHORE AND DEL BAY PRODUCED
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING, BUT NOTHING TOO SERIOUS. WITH A WELL-
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION, NO ADDITIONAL TIDAL
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KPHI 271759
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1259 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RECENT SNOW WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE
REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER A GOOD PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF PHILA. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...SO SOME ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN CANCELLED OR ADJUSTED. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE DAY...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME BRIGHTER SPOTS TOWARD
BERKS COUNTY. HIGH TEMPS AROUND 20 FAR NORTH, UPPER 20S TO AROUND
30 IN THE PHL METRO AREA...AND MID 30S FAR SOUTH.

WE CONTINUE TO ISSUE UPDATED PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
CONTAINING THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS. WE THANK ALL THOSE WHO
HAVE GONE OUT AND MEASURED THEIR SNOW AND REPORTED TO US. IT
REALLY HELPS OUR FORECAST PROCESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY MENTION OF
PRECIP WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SRN POCONOS AND CLOSER TO NYC AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TO CLR FROM THE SW TO NE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S OVER MOST AREAS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGIT
READINGS OVER THE SRN POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW WILL STEADILY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE 5-10F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, DID LEAN ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND  ADIABATIC
WARMING FROM A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE STRONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE I-95 URBAN CORRIDOR, ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE DELMARVA AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. MIN TEMP FORECAST
WAS A BLEND BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST (WHICH WAS THE COLDER THAN ANY
00Z GUIDANCE) AND THE 00Z NAM.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
STATES ON FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
AND DPVA WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHEASTERN PA LATE IN DAY THURSDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE (PWAT APPROACH 0.6 INCHES) TO WORK
WITH THAN WHAT TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIES CLIPPERS AS IT IS ABLE TO TAP
INTO LIMITED GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE LOW IS AND THE FACT THAT IT IS NOT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL IT REACHES THE GULF OF MAINE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT: 1-3 INCHES IN THE POCONOS AND EXTREME NW NJ, LESS THAN AN
INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE AM WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. BRISK NW WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUST 30-40 MPH
ASSUMING DEEP MIXING IS REALIZED ON LAND. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS.

DAYS 4.5-7 OF THE FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 05Z/27 WPC ELEMENTS
OF TT/TD/WIND/SKY/POP. WE ADJUSTED THE WPC TEMPS MUCH HIGHER SUN
NIGHT AND A BIT HIGHER MONDAY PER NEW 00Z/27 MODE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOW PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION IN THIS TIME FRAME.

FRI NIGHT...VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL. NW FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD STILL HAVE GUSTY
WINDS WITH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...FAIR AND VERY COLD. AVERAGE TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SUNDAY...MODERATING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND PCPN
OF SOME SORT EXPECTED AT NIGHT. HIGHLY VARIABLE SET OF SOLUTIONS AND
CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS/PTYPE IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

MONDAY...MAYBE SOME LEFT OVER PCPN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
THEN DRYING OUT AND TURNING COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS HAVE GRADUALLY IMPROVED TO VFR AND SKIES WILL
TRANSITION TO BROKEN AND SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO VFR BY 20Z. NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES. FOR
TONIGHT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2,000 FEET
TO FORM. HOWEVER WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS OVER 10 KNOTS
THERE IS LITTLE TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THIS WILL OCCUR.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A VFR DAY WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS AGAIN AROUND 20
KNOTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
WILL AGAIN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KT IN
THE DAY, BECOMING CALM AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...VFR TO FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH BLUSTERY NW WIND GUSTING TO 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STORM WARNINGS CHANGED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR NJ WATERS.

DEEP LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GALE GUSTS EXPECTED AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BACK BELOW
GALE STRENGTH LATER...BUT THE DAY SHIFT CAN MAKE THAT CALL LATER.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH FREEZING SPRAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY- NEAR GALE-FORCE GUSTS BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

FRI NIGHT: POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NJ/DEL SHORE AND DEL BAY PRODUCED
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING, BUT NOTHING TOO SERIOUS. WITH A WELL-
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION, NO ADDITIONAL TIDAL
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLES.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ001-007>010-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-025-026.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/GAINES/KLEIN
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF









000
FXUS61 KPHI 271732
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1232 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR RECENT SNOW WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE
REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY WILL SETTLE OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SATURDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER A GOOD PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA
NORTH OF PHILA. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS...SO SOME ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN CANCELLED OR ADJUSTED. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE DAY...BUT THERE COULD BE SOME BRIGHTER SPOTS TOWARD
BERKS COUNTY. HIGH TEMPS AROUND 20 FAR NORTH, UPPER 20S TO AROUND
30 IN THE PHL METRO AREA...AND MID 30S FAR SOUTH.

WE CONTINUE TO ISSUE UPDATED PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
CONTAINING THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS. WE THANK ALL THOSE WHO
HAVE GONE OUT AND MEASURED THEIR SNOW AND REPORTED TO US. IT
REALLY HELPS OUR FORECAST PROCESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THE ONLY MENTION OF
PRECIP WILL BE SOME LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SRN POCONOS AND CLOSER TO NYC AREA. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TO CLR FROM THE SW TO NE AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S OVER MOST AREAS WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGIT
READINGS OVER THE SRN POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW WILL STEADILY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. WEDNESDAY
WILL BE 5-10F DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, DID LEAN ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS UNDER FULL SUNSHINE AND  ADIABATIC
WARMING FROM A DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS WELL AS LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF THE EXITING TROUGH.

RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD BE STRONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS FOR THE I-95 URBAN CORRIDOR, ALONG THE COAST
AND IN THE DELMARVA AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. MIN TEMP FORECAST
WAS A BLEND BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST (WHICH WAS THE COLDER THAN ANY
00Z GUIDANCE) AND THE 00Z NAM.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
STATES ON FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
AND DPVA WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHEASTERN PA LATE IN DAY THURSDAY AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE (PWAT APPROACH 0.6 INCHES) TO WORK
WITH THAN WHAT TYPICALLY ACCOMPANIES CLIPPERS AS IT IS ABLE TO TAP
INTO LIMITED GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE LOW IS AND THE FACT THAT IT IS NOT FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
UNTIL IT REACHES THE GULF OF MAINE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT: 1-3 INCHES IN THE POCONOS AND EXTREME NW NJ, LESS THAN AN
INCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.

STRONG CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. MAX TEMPS IN THE 30S ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE AM WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. BRISK NW WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO GUST 30-40 MPH
ASSUMING DEEP MIXING IS REALIZED ON LAND. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS.

DAYS 4.5-7 OF THE FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE 05Z/27 WPC ELEMENTS
OF TT/TD/WIND/SKY/POP. WE ADJUSTED THE WPC TEMPS MUCH HIGHER SUN
NIGHT AND A BIT HIGHER MONDAY PER NEW 00Z/27 MODE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING LOW PRESSURE AND PRECIPITATION IN THIS TIME FRAME.

FRI NIGHT...VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY POTENTIAL. NW FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD STILL HAVE GUSTY
WINDS WITH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...FAIR AND VERY COLD. AVERAGE TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

SUNDAY...MODERATING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY AND PCPN
OF SOME SORT EXPECTED AT NIGHT. HIGHLY VARIABLE SET OF SOLUTIONS AND
CONFIDENCE ON TEMPS/PTYPE IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

MONDAY...MAYBE SOME LEFT OVER PCPN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
THEN DRYING OUT AND TURNING COLDER.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WRAPAROUND SNOW FROM THE COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO EXPAND TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TERMINALS ARE
LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY, WHERE LIFT IS WEAKER AND SNOW IS
LIGHTER. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED A 3-4 HOUR TEMPO GROUP EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR IFR VSBYS AT TTN/PNE/PHL/ACY AND MVFR FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.
THIS SHIELD OF SNOW MAY LINGER OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z
BUT VSBYS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 15Z AS THE INTENSITY OF THE
SNOW TAPERS OFF. N-NW WINDS 15-20 KT WILL GUST UP TO 25 KT TODAY.
BLSN MAY REDUCE VSBYS LOCALLY AT THE TERMINALS BUT WAS NOT AS
PESSIMISTIC WITH THE VSBYS SINCE THERE IS ONLY A FRACTION OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.

VFR LATE THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT. WINDS RELAX A BIT OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KT IN
THE DAY, BECOMING CALM AT NIGHT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...VFR TO FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. LIGHT
SNOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT MAY REACH ABE/RDG BY LATE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE WITH THE SNOW. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH BLUSTERY NW WIND GUSTING TO 30 KT.

FRI NIGHT...VFR.  GUSTY NW WINDS.

SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
STORM WARNINGS CHANGED TO GALE WARNINGS FOR NJ WATERS.

DEEP LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GALE GUSTS EXPECTED AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TODAY. WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP BACK BELOW
GALE STRENGTH LATER...BUT THE DAY SHIFT CAN MAKE THAT CALL LATER.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN SUBSIDE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...SCA LIKELY WITH FREEZING SPRAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED. SOME FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY- NEAR GALE-FORCE GUSTS BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM.

FRI NIGHT: POSSIBLE LEFTOVER NW GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NJ/DEL SHORE AND DEL BAY PRODUCED
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING, BUT NOTHING TOO SERIOUS. WITH A WELL-
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION, NO ADDITIONAL TIDAL
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ001-007>010-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-025-026.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/KLEIN
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA











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