000
FXUS61 KPHI 230041
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
841 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO PUMP WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR CHICAGO THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO FRIDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY AND REMAIN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THERE HAVE BEEN MULTIPLE MULTICELLULAR STORMS FORMING TO OUR WEST
AND SOUTHWEST TIED TO AN INCOMING SHORT WAVE THAT IS TEAMING UP WITH A
LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE STORM MOTION CONTINUES TO FAVOR OUR WESTERN
AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS THE SURFACE FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY. A
FEW CELLS ARE BEGINNING TO FIRE UP ALONG THE SURFACE COLD POOL
MOVING CLOSE TO BERKS COUNTY. THE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THERE IS STILL PLENTY
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY FOR THE STORMS TO TAP INTO SO WE COULD
SEE A CONTINUATION OF THE CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
OTHERWISE, THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT AND OUT OF OUR CWA. OVERALL, A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS IN
STORE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME FOG. FOR NOW, ADDED
IN PATCHY FOG AS WE ARE THINKING THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE MOSTLY
FOCUSED INTO THE FORM OF CLOUDS.
AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE MAINLY USED AN EVEN GFS/NAM MOS
BLEND. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS INCORPORATED
SOME OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE TO ASSIST IN TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT INCREASING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES ALONG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SURFACE LOW. THERE MAY BE SOME
SHOWERS /PERHAPS SOME THUNDER/ ONGOING AS THE DAY STARTS AS
INCREASING LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS
THE INLAND AREAS. WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS TO BE
PRESENT DURING THE DAY, WITH AREAS OF STRATUS AND PERHAPS FOG
GRADUALLY LIFTING SOME. THE PRESENCE OF THE CLOUDS ADDS UNCERTAINTY
TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE AIRMASS WILL BE RATHER BUOYANT, THEREFORE
SHOWERS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP FAIRLY QUICKLY EVEN WITH INITIALLY
WEAKER LIFT.
THERE IS THE CHC FOR SOME STRONGER CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IF POCKETS
OF INCREASED INSTABILITY CAN OCCUR. AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE AREA, ANY ROBUST UPDRAFTS THAT CAN BE SUSTAINED WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL PROVIDED STRONGER
INSTABILITY CAN BE OBTAINED. SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION, NO ENHANCED
WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE ABOUT 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES, THEREFORE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN
COULD OCCUR. AS OF NOW, MAINLY SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
COULD RESULT. A MENTION IS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE
POPS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY, ALTHOUGH WE DID SLOW
THE INCREASE DOWN SOME ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE ACTIVITY MAY BE
HELD INLAND FOR AWHILE AS LARGER SCALE LIFT TAKES LONGER TO GET MORE
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY GOING ALONG THE COAST.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS USED.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN TODAY GIVEN MORE CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY COUPLED WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO SHARPEN AND A SFC/UPPER LOW IS SHOWN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
LOW IS SHOWN ONLY MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY. THIS
REPRESENTS A CHANGE IN THE LONGER RANGE GFS/ECMWF MODELS OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS. THEY WERE SHOWING MORE RAPID CLEARING ON PREVIOUS
RUNS. WE HAVE ACCORDINGLY INCREASED CLOUD/POP GRIDS FOR THESE
PERIODS OVER PREVIOUS VALUES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THU NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S FRI/SAT
AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S/50S FRI AND SAT NIGHTS.
THE REMAINING PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE PLENTY OF
DRY WEATHER. THE ONLY PERIOD WHEN PCPN IS IN THE GRIDS IS FRO NEXT
WED WHEN A SLGT CHC IS IN THERE. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY WILL CREST OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND
THEN CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S IN MANY AREAS. READINGS WILL MODERATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY REACHING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND FEW LOW
80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOW/MODERATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN
THE HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR, THEN IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THE TIMING OF THIS IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.
THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING
NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL, THEN ANOTHER CHANCE MAINLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY..IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR, HOWEVER GIVEN INCREASING SHOWERS WE DID
NOT FORECAST THIS AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU SAT MORNING...LOWER CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND LOWER
VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THIS FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHARP
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IS IN PLACE DUE TO MUCH WARMER AIR OVER THE
COOLER WATERS. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT
FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE, ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT STRONGER
WITHIN THE INVERSION LEVEL. WE ARE THINKING THAT THE WINDS GENERALLY
REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS, HOWEVER THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD WITHIN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. IT APPEARS WAVEWATCH IS RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TO
HIGH SO FAR, THEREFORE WE DID UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE SOME. AS A
RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN ZONES /MAINLY FOR
SEAS/ REMAINS IN EFFECT STARTING EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME FOG SHOULD BE MAINTAINED INTO THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN WATERS. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY, MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON,
AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN.
OUTLOOK...
THE SCA FLAG HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THU NIGHT FOR NOW. THE SLOWER
MOVING FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MAY RESULT
IN THE SCA FLAG BEING EXTENDED FURTHER IN TIME. IMPROVING WEATHER
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER/O`HARA
MARINE...GORSE/O`HARA
000
FXUS61 KPHI 221945
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO PUMP WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR CHICAGO THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO FRIDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY AND REMAIN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS DRAPED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE
GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. A
TROUGH WAS ACROSS VIRGINIA. AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES, WITH A STRONG
CLOSED LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE RATHER MOIST AIRMASS HELPED TO PRODUCE LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS,
HOWEVER THESE CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST. THESE MAY HANG ON
THOUGH ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST GIVEN THE
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. A WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT, AND THIS BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED IN NEAR FAR NORTHEAST
NEW JERSEY THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL, A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS IN
STORE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME FOG. FOR NOW, ADDED IN
PATCHY FOG AS WE ARE THINKING THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE MOSTLY FOCUSED
INTO THE FORM OF CLOUDS.
THE MAIN FOCUS IS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL IS KEYING IN
ON OUR NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE THESE AREAS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW ARE
DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN
PLACE OWING TO THE HIGHER DEW POINTS. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF FOCUSED
FORCING MAY KEEP THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON THE LOW SIDE. THE ENTITY
TO WATCH IS AN INCOMING SHORT WAVE THAT COULD TEAM UP WITH A LEE
SIDE TROUGH, THAT WILL INITIATE CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OTHER THAN THAT, PERHAPS AN ISOLATED CELL IS ABLE TO POP
UP INLAND INTO THIS EVENING. WE THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHC
TO LOWER CHC POPS, BUT THEN LOWERED THESE FOR AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING SOME IN THE WEST TOWARD MORNING.
THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FARTHER NORTH AND MOSTLY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THEN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. THIS INITIATION COULD BE
ENHANCED SOME BY THE TERRAIN AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH AS A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES, AND IF THIS CONVECTION ARRIVES IT COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL MOSTLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA IS IN WESTERN
VIRGINIA AS THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. IT DOES HAVE A WAYS
TO GO YET BEFORE REACHING OUR REA. THE PW VALUES ARE AROUND 1.25
INCHES, THEREFORE ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN. A MENTION WAS CONTINUED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE MAINLY USED AN EVEN GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS INCORPORATED SOME OF THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE TO ASSIST IN TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT INCREASING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES ALONG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SURFACE LOW. THERE MAY BE SOME
SHOWERS /PERHAPS SOME THUNDER/ ONGOING AS THE DAY STARTS AS
INCREASING LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS
THE INLAND AREAS. WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS TO BE
PRESENT DURING THE DAY, WITH AREAS OF STRATUS AND PERHAPS FOG
GRADUALLY LIFTING SOME. THE PRESENCE OF THE CLOUDS ADDS UNCERTAINTY
TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE AIRMASS WILL BE RATHER BUOYANT, THEREFORE
SHOWERS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP FAIRLY QUICKLY EVEN WITH INITIALLY
WEAKER LIFT.
THERE IS THE CHC FOR SOME STRONGER CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IF POCKETS
OF INCREASED INSTABILITY CAN OCCUR. AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE AREA, ANY ROBUST UPDRAFTS THAT CAN BE SUSTAINED WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL PROVIDED STRONGER
INSTABILITY CAN BE OBTAINED. SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION, NO ENHANCED
WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE ABOUT 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES, THEREFORE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN
COULD OCCUR. AS OF NOW, MAINLY SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
COULD RESULT. A MENTION IS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE
POPS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY, ALTHOUGH WE DID SLOW
THE INCREASE DOWN SOME ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE ACTIVITY MAY BE
HELD INLAND FOR AWHILE AS LARGER SCALE LIFT TAKES LONGER TO GET MORE
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY GOING ALONG THE COAST.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS USED.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN TODAY GIVEN MORE CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY COUPLED WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO SHARPEN AND A SFC/UPPER LOW IS SHOWN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
LOW IS SHOWN ONLY MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY. THIS
REPRESENTS A CHANGE IN THE LONGER RANGE GFS/ECMWF MODELS OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS. THEY WERE SHOWING MORE RAPID CLEARING ON PREVIOUS
RUNS. WE HAVE ACCORDINGLY INCREASED CLOUD/POP GRIDS FOR THESE
PERIODS OVER PREVIOUS VALUES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THU NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S FRI/SAT
AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S/50S FRI AND SAT NIGHTS.
THE REMAINING PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE PLENTY OF
DRY WEATHER. THE ONLY PERIOD WHEN PCPN IS IN THE GRIDS IS FRO NEXT
WED WHEN A SLGT CHC IS IN THERE. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY WILL CREST OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND
THEN CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S IN MANY AREAS. READINGS WILL MODERATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY REACHING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND FEW LOW
80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOW/MODERATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN
THE HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...ANY LINGERING LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS
LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT. OTHERWISE, VFR. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO BE WELL
WEST OF KPHL. A MENTION WAS NOT INCLUDED DUE TO A LOW POTENTIAL AT
THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS.
TONIGHT...VFR, THEN IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THE TIMING OF THIS IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE. THERE
COULD BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING NORTH
AND WEST OF KPHL, THEN ANOTHER CHANCE MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY..IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR, HOWEVER GIVEN INCREASING SHOWERS WE DID
NOT FORECAST THIS AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU SAT MORNING...LOWER CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND LOWER
VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THIS FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHARP
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IS IN PLACE DUE TO MUCH WARMER AIR OVER THE
COOLER WATERS. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT
FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE, ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT STRONGER
WITHIN THE INVERSION LEVEL. WE ARE THINKING THAT THE WINDS GENERALLY
REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS, HOWEVER THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD WITHIN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. IT APPEARS WAVEWATCH IS RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TO
HIGH SO FAR, THEREFORE WE DID UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE SOME. AS A
RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN ZONES /MAINLY FOR
SEAS/ REMAINS IN EFFECT STARTING EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME FOG SHOULD BE MAINTAINED INTO THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN WATERS. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY, MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON,
AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN.
OUTLOOK...
THE SCA FLAG HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THU NIGHT FOR NOW. THE SLOWER
MOVING FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MAY RESULT
IN THE SCA FLAG BEING EXTENDED FURTHER IN TIME. IMPROVING WEATHER
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...GORSE/O`HARA
000
FXUS61 KPHI 221549
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1149 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST, TRACKING TO OUR NORTH, AND WILL THEN DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THESE SEEM TO HAVE INITIATED NEAR THE
WARM FRONT WITH PERHAPS SOME HELP FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND
LIFT UP AND OVER THE FRONT. THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH
EVEN SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR AS ONE CROSSES THE WARM FRONT,
THEREFORE PERHAPS SOME HAIL WITH THEM. THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
HOWEVER LOOKS LOW WITH MORE ORGANIZATION TO OUR NORTH. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS WERE MADE, BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES.
OTHERWISE, A RATHER SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. THE 12Z
STERLING, VIRGINIA RAOB SHOWED A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
WHICH HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN THE WEALTH OF STRATUS. THE STRATUS IS
NOW LIFTING SOME AND ERODING FROM THE WEST, AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TOWARD THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOW QUICKLY THIS
OCCURS WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER THE
12Z RAOB SHOWS ONCE WE BREAK OUT INTO THE SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RATHER TOASTY.
WE THEN LOOK TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL SEEMS TO BE KEYING IN ON OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE THESE AREAS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
LARGE SCALE FORCING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW ARE
DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A FRONT SITTING VERY CLOSE TO OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE ARE
NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BACK SOUTHWESTWARD. THERE IS PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY TO BE IN PLACE TODAY OWING TO THE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
HOWEVER, THE LACK OF FOCUSED FORCING MAY KEEP THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE ON THE LOW SIDE. AFTER THE INITIAL CONVECTION NEAR MIDDAY IN
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, THE ENTITY TO WATCH IS AN INCOMING SHORT
WAVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD TEAM UP WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH, INITIATING CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES MAY NOT HAVE ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY, UNLESS
SOMETHING IS ABLE TO FORM WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY COAST.
THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FARTHER NORTH AND MOSTLY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THEN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. THIS
INITIATION COULD BE ENHANCED SOME BY THE TERRAIN AND A LEE SIDE
TROUGH AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES, AND IF THIS CONVECTION ARRIVES IT
COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND HAIL MOSTLY ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE PW VALUES ARE A
LITTLE OVER AN INCH TODAY, THEREFORE ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. OUR
CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER A MENTION IS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED WITH SOME OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE TO
ASSIST. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES WERE MADE ATTM TO THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FIRST ROUND LOOKS TO BE EARLY
IN THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO EARLY EVENING. WE MAY THEN GET A BREAK FOR
A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO SUNRISE THURSDAY. THIS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH.
WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING ELEVATED ACROSS THE AREA, OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN HIGH. GENERALLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITTING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY, WITH
THE CENTER PASSING OFF JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE ATTACHED COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, MOST LIKELY
LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ALSO STARTS
TO DEVELOP A MID LEVEL FEATURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ANY SLOWING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY END UP CONTRIBUTING TO FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
AREAS WITH LOWER FFG VALUES, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY
AS SURFACE HEATING AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. WHILE
THE SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT GREAT AT THIS TIME,
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED OUR AREA IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK WITH A SEE TEXT.
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY MORNING. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL
THE AREAS SHOULD DRY OUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR WILL BE
PUSHED INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT,
BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS HINT AT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE ON SUNDAY. THE AIRMASS
LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE AND WE
HAVE KEPT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY START TO WARM TOWARD THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...CEILINGS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO MVFR, THEN TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE REDUCED LOCAL VISIBILITIES DUE TO
HAZE/FOG ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY MID AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL TO BE NEAR KABE AND KRDG. A MENTION WAS NOT
INCLUDED DUE TO A LOW POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE GUSTINESS
AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH MIXING CAN OCCUR.
TONIGHT...VFR, THEN IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP LATE. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY
IN THE EVENING NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL, THEN ANOTHER CHANCE TOWARD
DAYBREAK. SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR,
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY RAIN.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
MAINLY A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN SOME LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, AND WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS. WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN
RUNNING A LITTLE HIGH, BUT EVEN IF WE KNOCK A FOOT OFF OF THE
SEAS, 5 FOOT SEAS COULD START LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY ON THE AREA
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE FRONT DEPARTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS MAY CAUSE
WINDS TO GUST UP AROUND 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY LATE SATURDAY AND
THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
000
FXUS61 KPHI 221353
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
953 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST, TRACKING TO OUR NORTH, AND WILL THEN DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RATHER SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WHICH IS
RESULTING IN SOME FOG. THE 12Z STERLING, VIRGINIA RAOB SHOWED A
PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WHICH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE
WEALTH OF STRATUS. AS HEATING OCCURS FROM ABOVE, THE STRATUS DECK IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND THIN OUT. HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS
WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER THE 12Z RAOB
SHOWS ONCE WE BREAK OUT INTO THE SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER TOASTY. IF THE CLEARING CAN OCCUR QUICK ENOUGH, SOME INLAND
AREAS ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 95 COULD MAKE A RUN AT 90 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WEALTH OF CLOUDS TO START THOUGH, WE DID
NOT GO QUITE THAT HIGH. WE DID LOWER THE TEMPERATURES SOME ALONG THE
COAST AS THE FLOW IS LIGHT ENOUGH WHERE THE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
SHOULD KEEP THESE AREAS COOLER.
WE THEN LOOK TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL SEEMS TO BE KEYING IN ON OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE THESE AREAS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER LARGE
SCALE FORCING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW ARE DRAPED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, A FRONT LOOKS TO BE
SITTING VERY CLOSE TO OUR NORTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING. WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING THIS TO BACK SOUTHWESTWARD MORE AT THIS TIME THOUGH,
ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE RATHER MOIST AIRMASS SOME DRIZZLE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THIS MORNING. THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO BE IN
PLACE TODAY OWING TO THE HIGHER DEW POINTS. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF
FOCUSED FORCING MAY KEEP THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON THE LOW SIDE.
THE ENTITY TO WATCH IS AN INCOMING SHORT WAVE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THAT COULD TEAM UP WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH, INITIATING
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. WE DECIDED TO SLOW DOWN THE POP INCREASE
SOME. THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES MAY NOT HAVE ANY CONVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY, UNLESS SOMETHING IS ABLE TO FORM WITH SOME LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY COAST.
THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FARTHER NORTH AND MOSTLY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THEN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. THIS
INITIATION COULD BE ENHANCED SOME BY THE TERRAIN AND A LEE SIDE
TROUGH AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES, AND IF THIS CONVECTION ARRIVES IT
COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND HAIL MOSTLY ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE PW VALUES ARE A
LITTLE OVER AN INCH TODAY, THEREFORE ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. OUR
CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER WE MAY ADD A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR MAINLY THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.
THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE 13Z OBSERVATIONS WITH SOME
OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE USED TO ASSIST. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CHANGES WERE MADE ATTM TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FIRST ROUND LOOKS TO BE EARLY
IN THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO EARLY EVENING. WE MAY THEN GET A BREAK FOR
A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO SUNRISE THURSDAY. THIS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH.
WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING ELEVATED ACROSS THE AREA, OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN HIGH. GENERALLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITTING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY, WITH
THE CENTER PASSING OFF JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE ATTACHED COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, MOST LIKELY
LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ALSO STARTS
TO DEVELOP A MID LEVEL FEATURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ANY SLOWING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY END UP CONTRIBUTING TO FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
AREAS WITH LOWER FFG VALUES, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY
AS SURFACE HEATING AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. WHILE
THE SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT GREAT AT THIS TIME,
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED OUR AREA IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK WITH A SEE TEXT.
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY MORNING. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL
THE AREAS SHOULD DRY OUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR WILL BE
PUSHED INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT,
BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS HINT AT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE ON SUNDAY. THE AIRMASS
LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE AND WE
HAVE KEPT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY START TO WARM TOWARD THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR EVERYWHERE
AROUND MIDDAY, THEN TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE
IMPROVEMENT IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. THERE WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO SOME FOG THROUGH LATE MORNING. THERE IS THE
CHANCE A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL TO BE NEAR KABE AND KRDG. A MENTION WAS NOT INCLUDED DUE
TO A LOW POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING
TO 10-15 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY, WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE GUSTINESS AT
TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH MIXING CAN OCCUR.
TONIGHT...VFR, THEN IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP LATE. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY
IN THE EVENING NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL, THEN ANOTHER CHANCE TOWARD
DAYBREAK. SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR,
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY RAIN.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN SOME LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, AND
WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS. WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN RUNNING A
LITTLE HIGH, BUT EVEN IF WE KNOCK A FOOT OFF OF THE SEAS, 5 FOOT
SEAS COULD START LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THEREFORE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY ON THE AREA
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE FRONT DEPARTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS MAY CAUSE
WINDS TO GUST UP AROUND 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY LATE SATURDAY AND
THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
000
FXUS61 KPHI 220805
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST, PASSING TO OUR NORTH, AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND LAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE DAY ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF/LIFT BY MID-MORNING, BUT WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO HAVE A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY, WHILE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, CONTINUING TO KEEP WARM, MOIST AIR
FLOWING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY
REACH THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA; THE COASTAL STRIP
SHOULD REMAIN COOLER, AND PROBABLY NOT REACH 80.
WITH THE WARM, MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE, THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A SLIGHT CAP, AND LACK OF A
STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK
VORTICITY ALOFT MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY, WHICH COULD HELP
SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FIRST ROUND LOOKS TO BE EARLY
IN THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO EARLY EVENING. WE MAY THEN GET A BREAK FOR
A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO SUNRISE THURSDAY. THIS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH.
WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING ELEVATED ACROSS THE AREA, OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN HIGH. GENERALLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITTING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY, WITH
THE CENTER PASSING OFF JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE ATTACHED COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, MOST LIKELY
LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ALSO STARTS
TO DEVELOP A MID LEVEL FEATURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ANY SLOWING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY END UP CONTRIBUTING TO FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
AREAS WITH LOWER FFG VALUES, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY
AS SURFACE HEATING AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. WHILE
THE SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT GREAT AT THIS TIME,
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED OUR AREA IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK WITH A SEE TEXT.
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY MORNING. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL
THE AREAS SHOULD DRY OUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR WILL BE
PUSHED INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT,
BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS HINT AT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE ON SUNDAY. THE AIRMASS
LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE AND WE
HAVE KEPT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY START TO WARM TOWARD THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BURN OFF/LIFT
BY MID-MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF
SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE
IS THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN TAFS. THE
OVERNIGHT 06Z TAFS DID NOT INCLUDE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL,
HOWEVER, THE 12Z TAFS MAY BE UPDATED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO SHOWER GROUP
FOR LATE IN THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING WOULD BE
LOW ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE. WINDS TODAY MAY GUSTY AROUND 15-20 KNOTS
AFTER THE SUN BREAKS OUT AND SOME MIXING OCCURS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LOW CIGS/VSBYS ARE ONCE AGAIN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SHOWERS, BUT TIMING THESE IS DIFFICULT, SO THEY WERE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR,
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY RAIN.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN SOME LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, AND
WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS. WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN RUNNING A
LITTLE HIGH, BUT EVEN IF WE KNOCK A FOOT OFF OF THE SEAS, 5 FOOT
SEAS COULD START LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THEREFORE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY ON THE AREA
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE FRONT DEPARTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS MAY CAUSE
WINDS TO GUST UP AROUND 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY LATE SATURDAY AND
THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
&&
.CLIMATE...
KNOWING THE FIRST 20 DAYS OF MAY TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED ALMOST
SPOT-ON NORMAL FOR ALMOST EVERY CLIMATE SITE IN OUR AREA...WE
PROJECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH FOR KPHL. WE USED THE KPHL
MAX/MINS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AND THEN THE FTPRHA PHL 2M MAX/MIN
TEMPS BEYOND THRU THE 31ST.
THE PROJECTED MONTHLY AVG TEMPS IS IN THE NORMAL RANGE...SLIGHTLY ABOVE
BUT WITHIN 1/2 DEG OF NORMAL.
WE DISCUSS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SINCE WE`RE COMING INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE COOL AND LESS FAVORABLE FOR OCEAN SWIMMING BUT
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASING CHANCES FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN DEVELOPING HERE BETWEEN ROUGHLY THE 30TH OF MAY WELL INTO
THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
SST`S ARE ALREADY GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IF WE
ADVANCE INTO A HOT SPELL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WE DO NOT WANT
A REPEAT OF LAST YEAR WHEN HOT WEATHER...WARMER THAN NORMAL WATERS AND
SEEMINGLY BENIGN OCEAN SWELLS ENCOURAGED SWIMMERS TO TAKE UNNECESSARY
RISKS AT EARLY SEASON "UNGUARDED" BEACHES WITH RIP CURRENT RELATED
DROWNINGS. THE DANGERS OF RIP CURRENTS ARE WORTHY OF A FEW MINUTES
OF DINNER TABLE DISCUSSION...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS ACCESS TO
THE BEACHES FOR MILLIONS OF SWIMMERS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF OUR
AREA WHO MAY BE LESS EXPERIENCED WITH THE DANGERS OF OCEAN SWIMMING.
THE CHANCES OF DROWNING AT A LIFE GUARDED BEACH IS 1 IN 18 MILLION.
RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK IS JUNE 2 THROUGH 8.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KPHI 220141
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
THIS HIGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM: CUT BACK FURTHER ON SHOWERS NW PTN OF THE FA TONIGHT. FOG
IS IN THE COUNTRYSIDE FCST BUT NOT NECESSARILY THE URBAN CENTERS
(FOGGER TOOL I THINK IS BETTER THAN THE CONSERVATIVE CROSSOVER).
HOWEVER SREF PROBS EVEN LOWER VSBY TO LESS THAN 1 MI IN THE CITY
BY 09Z.
SO MO CLEAR SKIES GIVE WAY TO LOW OVERCAST LATE. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT CONVECTION IN NW PA AND S NYS AT 01Z WILL DEVELOP ESEWD
AND GRAZE THE POCONOS 05Z-08 BUT FOR NOW... MODEL SIGNALS ARE DRY
FOR THIS EVENING AND WITHOUT CU...ITS DIFFICULT TO HAVE A SHOWER.
WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND MORE TYPICAL OF A MID SUMMER NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE WEATHER SIMILAR TO TODAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS/FOG IN
THE MORNING AND A CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
E PA. ITS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE DE VALLEY
DURING MIDDAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION SHOULD BE MID OR
LATE AFTN...IF ANY WITHIN OUR CWA.
SPC HAS PLACED THE SLGT RISK FOR TSTMS TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA...SO
WE WILL WATCH FOR THE UPDATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE
VERY WARM AGAIN WED WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS
(EXCEPT ALONG THE SHORE...WHERE READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S MAY OCCUR). THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THE TEMP NUDGES 90F
VCNTY OF KRDG OR KABE OR NEAR KSMQ IN THE AFTN WHERE THE HOTTEST
TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR...AGAIN PRESUMING NO CONVECTION IN THE 14Z-20Z
TIME FRAME.
CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY VERY SLOW TO THIN OVER SE NJ AND S DE ON
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY NOT CLEARING OFF TIL MID AFTN.
SW WIND G TO 15 MPH WED AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLC CST WED NIGHT
AND THU AND SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WHICH WILL KEEP WARM WX OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER, BY THU, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
SERN CANADA. THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION
THU NIGHT. THIS PD LOOKS TO TO BE THE WETTEST WITH SHOWERS, TSTMS
AND PSBLY SOME HEAVY RAIN. ITS A BIT TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN ABOUT
ANY SEVER WX POTENTIAL. IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON DAYTIME HEATING
AND OTHER FACTORS. HOWEVER, IT COULD BE MITIGATED BY THE FACT THAT
THE FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH AFTER SUNSET. THE 21/12Z GFS IS
THE SLOWEST MDL CLEARING THINGS OUT ON FRI AND TRIES TO DEVELOP A
WAVE ALG THE FRONT. NONE OF THE OTHER MDLS HAVE THIS FEATURE, SO
AM NOT INCLINED TO GO ALONG FOR NOW. FRI, ESPECIALLY LATER FRI,
SHOULD SEE IMPROVING WX AND BY SAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST FROM CANADA WAND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EWD
THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE PGRAD BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH AND THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL KEEP A DECENT NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA ON
SAT, WITH WEAKENING FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES IN ON SUN. SO, AT THIS
POINT, THE WEEKEND LOOKS PREDOMINANTLY DRY, ALBEIT COOL FOR LATE
MAY AND WITH A BRISK NW WIND, IT WILL FEEL COOLER ON SAT.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARMEST ON THU, WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 OR INTO THE
80S. THEN BEHIND THE FRONT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE AROUND 70 OR
INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. SAT LOOKS TO BE
THE COOLEST DAYS, WITH MANY LOCATIONS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR CIRRUS THIS EVENING. LIGHT SSW WIND. CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO BECOME IFR OR LIFR IN ST/FOG AFTER 07Z.
WED...AFTER A PROBABLE IFR CONDITION START AT 12Z...A SLOW RETURN TO
VFR BY MID OR LATE MORNING WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT IN THE
AFTN AND A SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
VCNTY KRDG OR KABE. SW WIND GUST TO 15 KT IN THE AFTN.
THE IFR CIGS MAY BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT VCNTY KMIV AND KACY NOT LIFTING
TO MVFR CIGS TIL MIDDAY WED AND CLEARING AROUND MID AFTN.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE DE VALLEY VCNTY KPNE/KPHL
AROUND 15-16Z WED PER LONG RANGE RUC-RAP BUT AN UNLIKELY OCCURRENCE.
FEELING IS THE MODELS HAVE A SLIGHT WET BIAS AND ARE OVERDOING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IN THIS SW FLOW SUMMERLIKE SCENARIO IN OUR CWA.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR,
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OR PDS OF
HEAVY RAIN. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO NW BEHIND CFP LATE WED
NIGHT/EARLY THU MRNG. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL DETAILS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE FACT THAT ALL SITES WILL SEE MVFR/IFR AND
TIMING.
FRI...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SAT-SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A BRISK NW WIND ON SAT OF 15-20
KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
GUIDANCE RUNNING A SOLID 1 FOOT OR MORE TOO HIGH RECENTLY DUE TO
WAA OVER COOLER WATER.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA TONIGHT AND APPROACH SCA LATER
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WED...BUT WITH THE WARMER AIR AND
COOLER SEAS...THE WINDS/WAVE GUIDANCE WILL PROBABLY BE TOO HIGH.
WE OPT TO KEEP THE SEAS AT 3 TO 4 FT FOR WED AND HOLD THE WINDS
BELOW SCA FLAG LEVELS. A FEW G 20-25 ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
LATER WED. SCAT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED WED.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST WILL
BRING A PROLONGED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU. AS THIS FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE W
ON THU, WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. THEREFORE, SEAS
AND WIND COULD BE AOA SCA CRITERIA BY THE START OF THE OUTLOOK PD. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PD ON THE OCEAN FRONT.
HOWEVER, WITH VERY WARM AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL OCEAN AND
WAVE WATCH OVERDOING HEIGHTS OF LATE, HAVE DECIDED NOT TO POST
ANYTHING ATTM. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SHWRS/TSTMS WED NIGHT INTO
THU ALG AND AHEAD OF THE CFP.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE AND SHOULD FALL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
KNOWING THE FIRST 20 DAYS OF MAY TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED ALMOST
SPOT-ON NORMAL FOR ALMOST EVERY CLIMATE SITE IN OUR AREA...WE
PROJECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH FOR KPHL. WE USED THE KPHL
MAX/MINS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AND THEN THE FTPRHA PHL 2M MAX/MIN
TEMPS BEYOND THRU THE 31ST.
THE PROJECTED MONTHLY AVG TEMPS IS IN THE NORMAL RANGE...SLIGHTLY ABOVE
BUT WITHIN 1/2 DEG OF NORMAL.
WE DISCUSS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SINCE WE`RE COMING INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE COOL AND LESS FAVORABLE FOR OCEAN SWIMMING BUT
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASING CHANCES FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN DEVELOPING HERE BETWEEN ROUGHLY THE 30TH OF MAY WELL INTO
THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
SST`S ARE ALREADY GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IF WE
ADVANCE INTO A HOT SPELL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WE DO NOT WANT
A REPEAT OF LAST YEAR WHEN HOT WEATHER...WARMER THAN NORMAL WATERS AND
SEEMINGLY BENIGN OCEAN SWELLS ENCOURAGED SWIMMERS TO TAKE UNNECESSARY
RISKS AT EARLY SEASON "UNGUARDED" BEACHES WITH RIP CURRENT RELATED
DROWNINGS. THE DANGERS OF RIP CURRENTS ARE WORTHY OF A FEW MINUTES
OF DINNER TABLE DISCUSSION...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS ACCESS TO
THE BEACHES FOR MILLIONS OF SWIMMERS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF OUR
AREA WHO MAY BE LESS EXPERIENCED WITH THE DANGERS OF OCEAN SWIMMING.
THE CHANCES OF DROWNING AT A LIFE GUARDED BEACH IS 1 IN 18 MILLION.
RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK IS JUNE 2 THROUGH 8.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 940
SHORT TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 940
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 940
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA 940
CLIMATE...940
000
FXUS61 KPHI 220013
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
813 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
THIS HIGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
740 PM: NO CHANGE TO THE ESTF UPDATE AT 550 PM.
STARTED THE EVENING MOSTLY CLEAR AND CUT OUT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THE ACTION IN MONROE AND SUSSEX
COUNTIES AROUND 2PM WAS ALL THAT WE WOULD HAVE TODAY.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OR SLIDE
INTO NE PA TOWARD 04Z AND INVADE THE POCONOS AROUND 05Z BUT FOR NOW...
MODEL SIGNALS ARE DRY FOR THIS EVENING AND WITHOUT CU...ITS
DIFFICULT TO HAVE A SHOWER.
THE FOG WAS DELAYED TIL LATE AND ATTM...NOT CALLING IT 1/4MI
DENSE. WILL REREVIEW FOG POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING.
LOW OVC WITH AREAS OF FOG SHOULD TEND TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER
07Z. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ABOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
CRITERIA...SO WE HAVE NOT ISSUED. IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 60S
SOUTH. WINDS LIGHT MOSTLY FROM THE SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE WEATHER SIMILAR TO TODAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS/FOG IN
THE MORNING AND A CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
E PA. ITS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE DE VALLEY
DURING MIDDAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION SHOULD BE MID OR
LATE AFTN...IF ANY IN OUR CWA.
SPC HAS PLACED THE SLGT RISK FOR TSTMS TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA...SO
WE WILL WATCH FOR THE UPDATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE
VERY WARM AGAIN WED WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS
(EXCEPT ALONG THE SHORE...WHERE READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S MAY OCCUR). THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THE TEMP NUDGES 90F
VCNTY OF KRDG OR KABE OR NEAR KSMQ IN THE AFTN WHERE THE HOTTEST
TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR.
CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY VER SLOW TO THIN OVER SE NJ AND S DE ON
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY NOT CLEARING OFF TIL MID AFTN.
SW WIND G TO 15 MPH WED AFTN.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLC CST WED NIGHT
AND THU AND SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WHICH WILL KEEP WARM WX OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER, BY THU, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
SERN CANADA. THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION
THU NIGHT. THIS PD LOOKS TO TO BE THE WETTEST WITH SHOWERS, TSTMS
AND PSBLY SOME HEAVY RAIN. ITS A BIT TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN ABOUT
ANY SEVER WX POTENTIAL. IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON DAYTIME HEATING
AND OTHER FACTORS. HOWEVER, IT COULD BE MITIGATED BY THE FACT THAT
THE FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH AFTER SUNSET. THE 21/12Z GFS IS
THE SLOWEST MDL CLEARING THINGS OUT ON FRI AND TRIES TO DEVELOP A
WAVE ALG THE FRONT. NONE OF THE OTHER MDLS HAVE THIS FEATURE, SO
AM NOT INCLINED TO GO ALONG FOR NOW. FRI, ESPECIALLY LATER FRI,
SHOULD SEE IMPROVING WX AND BY SAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST FROM CANADA WAND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EWD
THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE PGRAD BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH AND THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL KEEP A DECENT NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA ON
SAT, WITH WEAKENING FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES IN ON SUN. SO, AT THIS
POINT, THE WEEKEND LOOKS PREDOMINANTLY DRY, ALBEIT COOL FOR LATE
MAY AND WITH A BRISK NW WIND, IT WILL FEEL COOLER ON SAT.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARMEST ON THU, WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 OR INTO THE
80S. THEN BEHIND THE FRONT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE AROUND 70 OR
INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. SAT LOOKS TO BE
THE COOLEST DAYS, WITH MANY LOCATIONS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR CIRRUS THIS EVENING. LIGHT SSW WIND. CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO BECOME IFR OR LIFR IN ST/FOG AFTER 07Z.
WED...AFTER A PROBABLE IFR CONDITION START AT 12Z...A SLOW RETURN TO
VFR BY MID OR LATE MORNING WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT IN THE
AFTN AND A SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
VCNTY KRDG OR KABE. SW WIND GUST TO 15 KT IN THE AFTN.
THE IFR CIGS MAY BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT VCNTY KMIV AND KACY NOT
LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS TIL MIDDAY WED AND CLEARING AROUND MID AFTN.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE DE VALLEY VCNTY
KPNE/KPHL AROUND 15-16Z WED PER LONG RANGE RUC-RAP BUT UNLIKELY.
FEELING IS THE MODELS HAVE A SLIGHT WET BIAS AND OVERDOING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THIS SW FLOW SUMMERLIKE SCENARIO.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR,
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OR PDS OF
HEAVY RAIN. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO NW BEHIND CFP LATE WED
NIGHT/EARLY THU MRNG. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL DETAILS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE FACT THAT ALL SITES WILL SEE MVFR/IFR AND
TIMING.
FRI...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SAT-SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A BRISK NW WIND ON SAT OF 15-20
KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SW/S ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH SPEEDS
MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY AROUND 3 FT ON THE OCEAN
AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER THE DEL BAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA
TONIGHT AND APPROACH SCA LATER WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
WED...BUT WITH THE WARMER AIR AND COOLER SEAS...THE WINDS/WAVE
GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO HIGH. WE OPT TO KEEP THE SEAS AT 3 TO 4 FT FOR
WED AND HOLD THE WINDS BELOW SCA FLAG LEVELS. A FEW G 20-25 ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER WED. SCAT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED WED.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST WILL
BRING A PROLONGED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU. AS THIS FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE W
ON THU, WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. THEREFORE, SEAS
AND WIND COULD BE AOA SCA CRITERIA BY THE START OF THE OUTLOOK PD. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PD ON THE OCEAN FRONT.
HOWEVER, WITH VERY WARM AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL OCEAN AND
WAVE WATCH OVERDOING HEIGHTS OF LATE, HAVE DECIDED NOT TO POST
ANYTHING ATTM. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SHWRS/TSTMS WED NIGHT INTO
THU ALG AND AHEAD OF THE CFP.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE AND SHOULD FALL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.CLIMATE...
KNOWING THE FIRST 20 DAYS OF MAY TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED ALMOST
SPOT-ON NORMAL FOR ALMOST EVERY CLIMATE SITE IN OUR AREA...WE
PROJECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH FOR KPHL. WE USED THE KPHL
MAX/MINS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AND THEN THE FTPRHA 2M MAX/MIN TEMPS
BEYOND THRU THE 31ST.
THE AVG IS IN THE NORMAL RANGE...SLIGHTLY ABOVE BUT WITHIN 1/2 DEG
OF NORMAL.
WE DISCUSS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SINCE WE`RE COMING INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE COOL AND LESS FAVORABLE FOR SWIMMING BUT GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING INCREASING CHANCES OF A WARMER THAN NORMAL PATTERN DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY THE 30TH OF MAY INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.
SST`S ARE ALREADY GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IF WE
ADVANCE INTO A HOT SPELL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WE DO NOT WANT
A REPEAT OF LAST YEAR WHEN HOT WEATHER...WARM WATERS AND SEEMINGLY
BENIGN OCEAN SWELLS ENCOURAGED SWIMMERS TO TAKE UNNECESSARY RISKS
AT EARLY SEASON "UNGUARDED" BEACHES WITH RIP CURRENT RELATED
DROWNINGS. THE DANGERS OF RIP CURRENTS ARE WORTHY OF A FEW MINUTES
OF DINNER TABLE DISCUSSION...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS ACCESS TO
THE BEACHES FOR MILLIONS OF SWIMMERS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF OUR
AREA WHO MAY BE LESS EXPERIENCED WITH THE DANGERS OF OCEAN SWIMMING.
THE CHANCES OF DROWNING AT A LIFE GUARDED BEACH IS 1 IN 18 MILLION.
RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK IS JUNE 2 THROUGH 8.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 813
SHORT TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 813
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 813
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG
000
FXUS61 KPHI 212208
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
608 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
THIS HIGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ESTF UPDATE AT 550 PM.
STARTED THE EVENING MOSTLY CLEAR AND CUT OUT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THE ACTION IN MONROE AND SUSSEX
COUNTIES AROUND 2PM WAS ALL THAT WE WOULD HAVE TODAY.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION NOW FORMING IN
FAR NORTH CENTRAL PA WILL TURN ESE AND INVADE THE POCONOS AROUND
11 PM BUT FOR NOW...MODEL SIGNALS ARE DRY FOR THIS EVENING AND
WITHOUT CU...ITS DIFFICULT TO HAVE A SHOWER.
THE FOG WAS DELAYED TIL LATER AND ATTM...NOT CALLING IT 1/4MI DENSE.
WILL REREVIEW FOG POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING.
LOW OVC WITH AREAS OF FOG SHOULD TEND TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER
06Z. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ABOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
CRITERIA...SO WE HAVE NOT ISSUED. IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 60S
SOUTH. WINDS LIGHT MOSTLY FROM THE SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE WEATHER SIMILAR TO TODAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS/FOG IN
THE MORNING AND THE CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE FOUND ACROSS MOST AREAS...UNLIKE TDY WHERE
IT WAS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH. WE WILL CARRY POPS IN THE CHC RANGE
FOR NOW. THE SPC HAS PLACED THE SLGT RISK FOR TSTMS TO THE WEST OF
OUR AREA...SO WE WILL WATCH FOR UPDATED OVERNIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
VERY WARM AGAIN WED WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS (EXCEPT
ALONG THE SHORE...WHERE READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MAY
OCCUR).
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLC CST WED NIGHT
AND THU AND SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WHICH WILL KEEP WARM WX OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER, BY THU, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
SERN CANADA. THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION
THU NIGHT. THIS PD LOOKS TO TO BE THE WETTEST WITH SHOWERS, TSTMS
AND PSBLY SOME HEAVY RAIN. ITS A BIT TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN ABOUT
ANY SEVER WX POTENTIAL. IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON DAYTIME HEATING
AND OTHER FACTORS. HOWEVER, IT COULD BE MITIGATED BY THE FACT THAT
THE FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH AFTER SUNSET. THE 21/12Z GFS IS
THE SLOWEST MDL CLEARING THINGS OUT ON FRI AND TRIES TO DEVELOP A
WAVE ALG THE FRONT. NONE OF THE OTHER MDLS HAVE THIS FEATURE, SO
AM NOT INCLINED TO GO ALONG FOR NOW. FRI, ESPECIALLY LATER FRI,
SHOULD SEE IMPROVING WX AND BY SAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST FROM CANADA WAND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EWD
THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE PGRAD BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH AND THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL KEEP A DECENT NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA ON
SAT, WITH WEAKENING FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES IN ON SUN. SO, AT THIS
POINT, THE WEEKEND LOOKS PREDOMINANTLY DRY, ALBEIT COOL FOR LATE
MAY AND WITH A BRISK NW WIND, IT WILL FEEL COOLER ON SAT.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARMEST ON THU, WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 OR INTO THE
80S. THEN BEHIND THE FRONT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE AROUND 70 OR
INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. SAT LOOKS TO BE
THE COOLEST DAYS, WITH MANY LOCATIONS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR CIRRUS WITH PATCHY SC VCNTY KACY-KMIV THIS EVENING.
LIGHT SSW WIND. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BECOME IFR OR LIFR IN ST/FOG
AFTER 07Z.
WED...AFTER A PROBABLE IFR CONDITION START AT 12Z...A SLOW RETURN TO
VFR BY MID OR LATE MORNING WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT IN THE
AFTN AND A SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
VCNTY KRDG OR KABE. SW WIND GUST TO 15 KT IN THE AFTN.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR,
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OR PDS OF
HEAVY RAIN. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO NW BEHIND CFP LATE WED
NIGHT/EARLY THU MRNG. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL DETAILS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE FACT THAT ALL SITES WILL SEE MVFR/IFR AND
TIMING.
FRI...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SAT-SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A BRISK NW WIND ON SAT OF 15-20
KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SW/S ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH SPEEDS
MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY AROUND 3 FT ON THE OCEAN
AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER THE DEL BAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA
TONIGHT AND APPROACH SCA LATER WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
WED...BUT WITH THE WARMER AIR AND COOLER SEAS...THE WINDS/WAVE
GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO HIGH. WE OPT TO KEEP THE SEAS AT 3 TO 4 FT FOR
WED AND HOLD THE WINDS BELOW SCA FLAG LEVELS. A FEW G 20-25 ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER WED. SCAT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED WED.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST WILL
BRING A PROLONGED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU. AS THIS FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE W
ON THU, WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. THEREFORE, SEAS
AND WIND COULD BE AOA SCA CRITERIA BY THE START OF THE OUTLOOK PD. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PD ON THE OCEAN FRONT.
HOWEVER, WITH VERY WARM AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL OCEAN AND
WAVE WATCH OVERDOING HEIGHTS OF LATE, HAVE DECIDED NOT TO POST
ANYTHING ATTM. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SHWRS/TSTMS WED NIGHT INTO
THU ALG AND AHEAD OF THE CFP.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE AND SHOULD FALL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 607
SHORT TERM...DRAG/O`HARA
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA 607
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA 607
000
FXUS61 KPHI 211855
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
255 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
THIS HIGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR
WITH THE ACTIVITY EARLY. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
EARLY...THEN TRANSITION BACK TO A LOW OVC ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ABOVE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO WE HAVE NOT ISSUED THAT ATTM. IT WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH. WINDS LIGHT MOSTLY FROM THE SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE WEATHER SIMILAR TO TODAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS/FOG IN
THE MORNING AND THE CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE FOUND ACROSS MOST AREAS...UNLIKE TDY WHERE
IT WAS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH. WE WILL CARRY POPS IN THE CHC RANGE
FOR NOW. THE SPC HAS PLACED THE SLGT RISK FOR TSTMS TO THE WEST OF
OUR AREA...SO WE WILL WATCH FOR UPDATED OVERNIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
VERY WARM AGAIN WED WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS (EXCEPT
ALONG THE SHORE...WHERE READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MAY
OCCUR).
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLC CST WED NIGHT
AND THU AND SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WHICH WILL KEEP WARM WX OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER, BY THU, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
SERN CANADA. THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION
THU NIGHT. THIS PD LOOKS TO TO BE THE WETTEST WITH SHOWERS, TSTMS
AND PSBLY SOME HEAVY RAIN. ITS A BIT TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN ABOUT
ANY SEVER WX POTENTIAL. IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON DAYTIME HEATING
AND OTHER FACTORS. HOWEVER, IT COULD BE MITIGATED BY THE FACT THAT
THE FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH AFTER SUNSET. THE 21/12Z GFS IS
THE SLOWEST MDL CLEARING THINGS OUT ON FRI AND TRIES TO DEVELOP A
WAVE ALG THE FRONT. NONE OF THE OTHER MDLS HAVE THIS FEATURE, SO
AM NOT INCLINED TO GO ALONG FOR NOW. FRI, ESPECIALLY LATER FRI,
SHOULD SEE IMPROVING WX AND BY SAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST FROM CANADA WAND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EWD
THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE PGRAD BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH AND THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL KEEP A DECENT NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA ON
SAT, WITH WEAKENING FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES IN ON SUN. SO, AT THIS
POINT, THE WEEKEND LOOKS PREDOMINANTLY DRY, ALBEIT COOL FOR LATE
MAY AND WITH A BRISK NW WIND, IT WILL FEEL COOLER ON SAT.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARMEST ON THU, WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 OR INTO THE
80S. THEN BEHIND THE FRONT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE AROUND 70 OR
INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. SAT LOOKS TO BE
THE COOLEST DAYS, WITH MANY LOCATIONS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
IT HAS BEEN TAKING A LONG TIME FOR THE PATCH OF ST ACROSS
MIV-PHL-ILG TO FINALLY DISSIPATE...BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BY
MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE A
RETURN BACK TO LOW MVFR/OR IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. A FEW SCT
SHOWERS OR MAYBE A TSTM COULD AFFECT KABE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE PROB LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. AMDS POSSIBLE.
WINDS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY SW INTO THE EVENING AND THEN GO MOSTLY
LIGHT S OVERNIGHT. WED...A SLOW RETURN TO VFR BY MID-MORNING THEN
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR,
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OR PDS OF
HEAVY RAIN. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO NW BEHIND CFP LATE WED
NIGHT/EARLY THU MRNG. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL DETAILS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE FACT THAT ALL SITES WILL SEE MVFR/IFR AND
TIMING.
FRI...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SAT-SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A BRISK NW WIND ON SAT OF 15-20
KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SW/S ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH SPEEDS
MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY AROUND 3 FT ON THE OCEAN
AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER THE DEL BAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA
TONIGHT AND APPROACH SCA LATER WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
WED...BUT WITH THE WARMER AIR AND COOLER SEAS...THE WINDS/WAVE
GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO HIGH. WE OPT TO KEEP THE SEAS AT 3 TO 4 FT FOR
WED AND HOLD THE WINDS BELOW SCA FLAG LEVELS. A FEW G 20-25 ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER WED. SCAT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED WED.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST WILL
BRING A PROLONGED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU. AS THIS FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE W
ON THU, WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. THEREFORE, SEAS
AND WIND COULD BE AOA SCA CRITERIA BY THE START OF THE OUTLOOK PD. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PD ON THE OCEAN FRONT.
HOWEVER, WITH VERY WARM AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL OCEAN AND
WAVE WATCH OVERDOING HEIGHTS OF LATE, HAVE DECIDED NOT TO POST
ANYTHING ATTM. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SHWRS/TSTMS WED NIGHT INTO
THU ALG AND AHEAD OF THE CFP.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE AND SHOULD FALL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
000
FXUS61 KPHI 211525
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1125 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST, PASSING TO OUR NORTH, AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
VARIOUS ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE ESTF WITH CLOUDS STUBBORN ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND LOWER DEL VALLEY WITH SUNSHINE MUCH MORE ABUNDANT
ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE NRN HALF OF NJ. TEMP TRENDS HAVE
BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHER READINGS NORTH/WEST AND
SLOWER RISES SOUTH/EAST. THERE IS A CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH/WEST WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND A
WEAKER CAP EXPECTED. UPDATED PUBLIC PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION OVERNIGHT DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM THE
DAYTIME. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT, AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT, WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT MUCH OF
THE DENSER FOG FROM DEVELOPING. A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS WAS TAKEN
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
SETS UP SHOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR
SOUTHEAST, WE WILL SEE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OUR
AREA AND WE WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. WITH ALL THAT MOIST, WARM AIR, WE WILL ALSO START TO
DESTABILIZE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER
SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING HAS OCCURRED AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN REACHED.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY, WITH
THE CENTER PASSING OFF TO OUR NORTH. THE ATTACHED COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, MOST LIKELY
LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH LITTLE SUPPORT
OVERALL, WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST LARGELY THE SAME AND
LEAN A BIT MORE ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE.
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE MODELS HINT AT A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY WITH
A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE. THE AIR LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT BE TOO DRY FOR
ANYTHING TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE AND WE HAVE KEPT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND POP FREE.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG WILL BURN OFF THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS, AND
CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THEM HITTING A PARTICULAR TAF SITE IS LOW, SO THEY
WERE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IN THE SHOWERS
OCCURRING IS STILL LOW, SO THEY WERE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. ALSO, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXING TO OCCUR, SO WE DID NOT HIT THE LOW
CONDITIONS HARD JUST YET...WE`LL SEE HOW LATER GUIDANCE HANDLES THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR,
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALSO, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAY REDUCE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WINDS COULD PERIODICALLY GUST AROUND 20
KNOTS, ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALSO, SEAS WILL REMAIN
NEAR 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND MAY GET CLOSE TO 5 FEET
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST WILL
BRING A PROLONGED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS THIS FLOW STRENGTHENS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE. SEAS WILL START TO RISE TO NEAR 5 FEET BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS STARTING TO GUST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ON THE OCEAN FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE AND SHOULD FALL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
CRITERIA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.
WITH SUCH A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY, THERE
WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE AREA
WATERS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
000
FXUS61 KPHI 211236
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
836 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST, PASSING TO OUR NORTH, AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PUBLIC PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE A SMALL CHC FOR
SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ERN SHORE OF MD/DEL/SRN NJ.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY, WHICH
WILL KEEP OUR AREA UNDER A RETURN FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP A FLOW OF
WARM, MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF MY MID-MORNING, AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO SINK
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THIS FAR SOUTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A SHORT WAVE MOVING TO
OUR NORTH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY, AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. ANY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED NEAR THESE AREAS. HOWEVER, WITH A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA, THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY.
MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE GAVE SOME DIFFERENT NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TODAY
WITH THE MET SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MAV. TAKING A LOOK AT
925 MB TEMPERATURES, WE DECIDED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE MOS NUMBERS,
WHICH WOULD GIVE MID-UPPER 80S FROM MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH LOW-MID
80S FOR OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
MAY NOT REACH 80 DEGREES HOWEVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION OVERNIGHT DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM THE
DAYTIME. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT, AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT, WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT MUCH OF
THE DENSER FOG FROM DEVELOPING. A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS WAS TAKEN
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
SETS UP SHOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR
SOUTHEAST, WE WILL SEE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OUR
AREA AND WE WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. WITH ALL THAT MOIST, WARM AIR, WE WILL ALSO START TO
DESTABILIZE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER
SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING HAS OCCURRED AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN REACHED.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY, WITH
THE CENTER PASSING OFF TO OUR NORTH. THE ATTACHED COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, MOST LIKELY
LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH LITTLE SUPPORT
OVERALL, WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST LARGELY THE SAME AND
LEAN A BIT MORE ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE.
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE MODELS HINT AT A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY WITH
A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE. THE AIR LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT BE TOO DRY FOR
ANYTHING TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE AND WE HAVE KEPT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND POP FREE.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG WILL BURN OFF THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS, AND
CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THEM HITTING A PARTICULAR TAF SITE IS LOW, SO THEY
WERE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IN THE SHOWERS
OCCURRING IS STILL LOW, SO THEY WERE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. ALSO, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXING TO OCCUR, SO WE DID NOT HIT THE LOW
CONDITIONS HARD JUST YET...WE`LL SEE HOW LATER GUIDANCE HANDLES THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR,
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALSO, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAY REDUCE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WINDS COULD PERIODICALLY GUST AROUND 20
KNOTS, ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALSO, SEAS WILL REMAIN
NEAR 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND MAY GET CLOSE TO 5 FEET
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST WILL
BRING A PROLONGED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS THIS FLOW STRENGTHENS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE. SEAS WILL START TO RISE TO NEAR 5 FEET BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS STARTING TO GUST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ON THE OCEAN FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE AND SHOULD FALL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
CRITERIA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.
WITH SUCH A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY, THERE
WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE AREA
WATERS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
000
FXUS61 KPHI 210810
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST, PASSING TO OUR NORTH, AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST FOR THE WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC TODAY, WHICH
WILL KEEP OUR AREA UNDER A RETURN FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP A FLOW OF
WARM, MOIST AIR ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL BURN OFF MY MID-MORNING, AND EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO SINK
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THIS FAR SOUTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A SHORT WAVE MOVING TO
OUR NORTH ALONG THIS BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY, AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. ANY ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
WOULD LIKELY BE FOCUSED NEAR THESE AREAS. HOWEVER, WITH A WARM AND
MOIST AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA, THERE WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA, MAINLY LATE IN THE DAY.
MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE GAVE SOME DIFFERENT NUMBERS FOR HIGHS TODAY
WITH THE MET SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE MAV. TAKING A LOOK AT
925 MB TEMPERATURES, WE DECIDED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE MOS NUMBERS,
WHICH WOULD GIVE MID-UPPER 80S FROM MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH LOW-MID
80S FOR OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
MAY NOT REACH 80 DEGREES HOWEVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION OVERNIGHT DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM THE
DAYTIME. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE AREA OVERNIGHT, AT THE SAME TIME A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT, WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WE LEFT FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT MUCH OF
THE DENSER FOG FROM DEVELOPING. A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS WAS TAKEN
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
SETS UP SHOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR
SOUTHEAST, WE WILL SEE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ADVECT WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OUR
AREA AND WE WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT
LEAST MID WEEK. WITH ALL THAT MOIST, WARM AIR, WE WILL ALSO START TO
DESTABILIZE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE WEEK, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER
SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING HAS OCCURRED AND CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN REACHED.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY, WITH
THE CENTER PASSING OFF TO OUR NORTH. THE ATTACHED COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, MOST LIKELY
LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WITH LITTLE SUPPORT
OVERALL, WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST LARGELY THE SAME AND
LEAN A BIT MORE ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE.
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT, BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE MODELS HINT AT A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVELS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY WITH
A LIGHT SHOWER POSSIBLE. THE AIR LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT BE TOO DRY FOR
ANYTHING TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE AND WE HAVE KEPT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND POP FREE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG WILL BURN OFF THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS, AND
CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THEM HITTING A PARTICULAR TAF SITE IS LOW, SO THEY
WERE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IN THE SHOWERS
OCCURRING IS STILL LOW, SO THEY WERE LEFT OUT FOR NOW. ALSO, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIXING TO OCCUR, SO WE DID NOT HIT THE LOW
CONDITIONS HARD JUST YET...WE`LL SEE HOW LATER GUIDANCE HANDLES THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR,
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALSO, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAY REDUCE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WINDS COULD PERIODICALLY GUST AROUND 20
KNOTS, ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALSO, SEAS WILL REMAIN
NEAR 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD, AND MAY GET CLOSE TO 5 FEET
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS GETTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST WILL
BRING A PROLONGED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS THIS FLOW STRENGTHENS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE. SEAS WILL START TO RISE TO NEAR 5 FEET BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS STARTING TO GUST IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ON THE OCEAN FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE AND SHOULD FALL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
CRITERIA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.
WITH SUCH A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY, THERE
WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG TO FORM OVER THE AREA
WATERS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
000
FXUS61 KPHI 210121
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
921 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH HOLIDAY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE 9-930 PM UPDATES: 630 PM FCST UPDATE ON TRACK. A QUIET NOW AND
WAITING TO SEE HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG WILL BE.
HAVING REVIEWED THE 12Z/20 ECMWF...THE 12 AND 18Z GFS AND 18Z NAM...THE
FCST SCENARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM
SINCE THE GFS HAS NOT DEFINED THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE
NAM/ECMWF.
ITS DOUBTFUL WHETHER ANY MORE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA THIS
EVENING. THE SECOND SMALL GROUP OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN CUMBERLAND
COUNTY AROUND 8 PM HAS SINCE DISSIPATED.
THE LACK OF MID AND UPPER LVL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT OPENS THE DOOR
FOR AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE TEMP/DEWPOINTS
SPREADS AT 22Z WERE STILL LARGE...DELAYED THE FOG FORMATION ABOUT
6 HOURS. ITS SUMMERLIKE SITN SO NOT SURE HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG BUT
WITH LIGHT WIND AND DECENT RADIATION CONDITIONS WE SHOULD SEE
AREAS OF DENSE FOG DEVELOP LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE COAST...PUMPING IN WARM AND
HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE MEANDERING
ACROSS VA/MD DURING THE DAY. UPPER (H5/H7) HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY
BUILDING EARLY...THEN BEGINNING TO LOWER LATE.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TUE. AREAS OF FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY THAN TODAY...SO A CHC FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE KEPT IN THE FCST FOR TUE. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW 80S NORTH AND MID 80S ACROSS THE METRO PHILADELPHIA
AREA. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ALSO BE ABUNDANT INTO THE REGION. THIS ADVECTION, ALONG A WITH A
WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME INSTABILITY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE INSTABILITY MAY BE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF 1000
J/KG COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED STORM MOTIONS. PULSE TYPE CONVECTION MAY BE
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE FRONT DURING THE DAY. FEEL
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED BUT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY MAY
ALLOW FOR A SCATTERED STRONG STORM. THE OVERALL LACK OF SHEAR WILL
LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY. WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
CONVECTION HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DIFFER IN SPOTS. HAVE GONE ON THE
WARM SIDE GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND RIGHT NOW
THE BEST TIMING FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LATER THURSDAY. AS USUAL
THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER. RAISED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. THOUGH SEVERAL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AND THE 12Z ECMWF HINT THE FRONT MAY BE A TOUCH SLOWER
THAN MODEL FCSTS. WENT COOLER ON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY DUE TO
CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY ALSO LIMIT THE INSTABILITY POTENTIAL
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH SLOWER TIMING COULD LEAD TO A
MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL WENT WITH ELEMENTS OF THE SREF
AND WPC FOR QPF FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OVERALL, THURSDAY LOOKS
TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS GENLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S, LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND! DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM GUIDANCE HERE. THINK THE
GFS MAY BE TO QUICK WITH ANY SYSTEM THAT COMES IN NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR. AREAS OF LIFR FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN
05Z-09Z OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE TAF LOCATIONS AND MOVE CLOSE TO KPHL
BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. LIGHT S-SW WIND.
TUESDAY...IFR/LIFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS TO START AT 12Z IMPROVES TO
VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT IN THE AFTN WITH SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE BUT THOSE SHOWERS WERE NOT INCLUDED
IN THE 18Z/20 TAFS. A LOW PROBABILITY OCCURRENCE. THAT CONVECTION
MAY NOT ARRIVE TIL AFTER DARK?
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY... MAINLY VFR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES IN THE AFTERNOON TO REDUCE CONDITIONS
TO MVFR OR IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY.... VFR TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS TURNING TO THE WEST AT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS THIS WEEK OCCURS THU.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT NORTH OR VARIABLE.
&&
.MARINE...
LOWERED THE SWELL A FOOT THROUGH TUESDAY BECAUSE OF A RECENT 1/2
TO 1 FT HIGH BIAS ON THE SWELL. INCREASED THE WNA4 PERIOD SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT SINCE IT WAS UNDERFCSTG BY 1-2 SECONDS.
OVERALL CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT THROUGH 00Z WED.
THEREFORE NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST TUE AFTN.
THERE MAY BE AREAS OF FOG ON THE WATERS TONIGHT BUT DELAYED THE FOG
BECAUSE OF SW FLOW. CONFIDENCE FOR 2MI OR LESS FOG OVER THE WATER
IS BELOW AVG ON SW ISOBARIC FLOW. A SHOWERS OR TSTM IS POSSIBLE
TUE AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE ON ANY QPF TUESDAY IS BELOW AVG.
OUTLOOK...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA TILL EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 5 FEET FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TILL EARLY
FRIDAY. SEAS AND WINDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY. WIND WILL ALSO
INCREASE AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES BY THU. A SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
LOW PROB FIRST 90F DAY OF THE SEASON WED AFTN EXCEPTION KILG WHICH
TOUCHED 90F ON 4/10.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 921
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GAINES/NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 921
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG 921
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KPHI 210021
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
821 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH HOLIDAY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HAVING REVIEWED THE 12Z/20 ECMWF...THE 12 AND 18Z GFS AND 18Z NAM...THE
FCST SCENARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL RIDE THE BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM
SINCE THE GFS HAS NOT DEFINED THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE
NAM/ECMWF.
ITS DOUBTFUL WHETHER ANY MORE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA THIS
EVENING. A NEW GROUP OF SCT SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER DE BAY AND
CUMBERLAND COUNTY 745-815PM EDT. WE JUST PROCESSED THIS AND UPDATED
THE GRIDS BUT DOES NOT READ ON THE LEGACY PRODUCTS DUE TO ITS
SHORT TERM EXISTENCE.
OTRW MODELS ARE NOW BASICALLY RAINFREE TONIGHT
THE LACK OF MID AND UPPER LVL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT OPENS THE DOOR
FOR AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE TEMP/DEWPOINTS
SPREADS AT 22Z WERE STILL LARGE...DELAYED THE FOG FORMATION ABOUT
6 HOURS.
SUMMERLIKE SITN SO NOT SURE HOW EXTENSIVE BUT WITH LIGHT WIND AND
DECENT RADIATION CONDITIONS WE SHOULD SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG
DEVELOP LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE COAST...PUMPING IN WARM AND
HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE MEANDERING
ACROSS VA/MD DURING THE DAY. UPPER (H5/H7) HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY
BUILDING EARLY...THEN BEGINNING TO LOWER LATE.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TUE. AREAS OF FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY THAN TODAY...SO A CHC FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE KEPT IN THE FCST FOR TUE. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW 80S NORTH AND MID 80S ACROSS THE METRO PHILADELPHIA
AREA. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ALSO BE ABUNDANT INTO THE REGION. THIS ADVECTION, ALONG A WITH A
WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME INSTABILITY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE INSTABILITY MAY BE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF 1000
J/KG COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED STORM MOTIONS. PULSE TYPE CONVECTION MAY BE
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE FRONT DURING THE DAY. FEEL
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED BUT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY MAY
ALLOW FOR A SCATTERED STRONG STORM. THE OVERALL LACK OF SHEAR WILL
LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY. WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
CONVECTION HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DIFFER IN SPOTS. HAVE GONE ON THE
WARM SIDE GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND RIGHT NOW
THE BEST TIMING FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LATER THURSDAY. AS USUAL
THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER. RAISED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. THOUGH SEVERAL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AND THE 12Z ECMWF HINT THE FRONT MAY BE A TOUCH SLOWER
THAN MODEL FCSTS. WENT COOLER ON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY DUE TO
CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY ALSO LIMIT THE INSTABILITY POTENTIAL
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH SLOWER TIMING COULD LEAD TO A
MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL WENT WITH ELEMENTS OF THE SREF
AND WPC FOR QPF FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OVERALL, THURSDAY LOOKS
TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS GENLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S, LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND! DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM GUIDANCE HERE. THINK THE
GFS MAY BE TO QUICK WITH ANY SYSTEM THAT COMES IN NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR TO START. AREAS OF LIFR FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP
BETWEEN 05Z-09Z IN THE COUNTRYSIDE TAF LOCATIONS AND MOVE CLOSE TO
KPHL BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. LIGHT S-SW WIND.
TUESDAY...IFR/LIFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS TO START AT 12Z IMPROVE TO
VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT IN THE AFTN WITH SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE 18Z/20
TAFS. THE CONVECTION MAY NOT ARRIVE TIL AFTER DARK?
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY... MAINLY VFR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES IN THE AFTERNOON TO REDUCE CONDITIONS
TO MVFR OR IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY.... VFR TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS TURNING TO THE WEST AT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS THIS WEEK OCCURS THU.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT NORTH OR VARIABLE.
&&
.MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE THE SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE JUST ABOUT
ENDED. IT HAS BEEN A VERY LOW-END EVENT AND WITH THE WARM AIR OVER
THE COLD WATERS AND THE DECREASING P-GRADIENT...IT APPEARS THAT A
PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS. THE FLAG WILL
BE DROPPED WITH THE 330 PM CWF ISSUANCE. IT APPEARS THE THE SW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE
AREAS OF FOG ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SCAT SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA TILL EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 5 FEET FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TILL EARLY
FRIDAY. SEAS AND WINDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY. WIND WILL ALSO
INCREASE AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES BY THU. A SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
LOW PROB FIRST 90F DAY OF THE SEASON WED AFTN EXCEPTION KILG WHICH
TOUCHED 90F ON 4/10.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 820P
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GAINES/NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KPHI 202343
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
743 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH HOLIDAY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HAVING REVIEWED THE 12Z/20 ECMWF...THE 12 AND 18Z GFS AND 18Z NAM...THE
FCST SCENARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL RIDE THE BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM
SINCE THE GFS HAS NOT DEFINED THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE
NAM/ECMWF.
ITS DOUBTFUL WHETHER ANY MORE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA THIS
EVENING. WE TRIED CODING IN THE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN OCEAN COUNTY
FOR 2 HRS BUT THE LEGACY AND POINT/CLICK PRODUCTS DID NOT PICK IT
UP.
OTRW THE 630 PM UPDATE COMPLETELY WITHDREW SHOWERS FROM THE FCST.
MODELS ARE NOW BASICALLY RAINFREE TONIGHT
THE LACK OF MID AND UPPER LVL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT OPENS THE DOOR
FOR AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE TEMP/DEWPOINTS
SPREADS AT 22Z WERE STILL LARGE...DELAYED THE FOG FORMATION ABOUT
6 HOURS.
SUMMERLIKE SITN SO NOT SURE HOW EXTENSIVE BUT WITH LIGHT WIND AND
DECENT RADIATION CONDITIONS WE SHOULD SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG
DEVELOP LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE COAST...PUMPING IN WARM AND
HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE MEANDERING
ACROSS VA/MD DURING THE DAY. UPPER (H5/H7) HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY
BUILDING EARLY...THEN BEGINNING TO LOWER LATE.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TUE. AREAS OF FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY THAN TODAY...SO A CHC FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE KEPT IN THE FCST FOR TUE. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW 80S NORTH AND MID 80S ACROSS THE METRO PHILADELPHIA
AREA. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ALSO BE ABUNDANT INTO THE REGION. THIS ADVECTION, ALONG A WITH A
WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME INSTABILITY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE INSTABILITY MAY BE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF 1000
J/KG COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED STORM MOTIONS. PULSE TYPE CONVECTION MAY BE
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE FRONT DURING THE DAY. FEEL
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED BUT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY MAY
ALLOW FOR A SCATTERED STRONG STORM. THE OVERALL LACK OF SHEAR WILL
LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY. WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
CONVECTION HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DIFFER IN SPOTS. HAVE GONE ON THE
WARM SIDE GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND RIGHT NOW
THE BEST TIMING FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LATER THURSDAY. AS USUAL
THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER. RAISED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. THOUGH SEVERAL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AND THE 12Z ECMWF HINT THE FRONT MAY BE A TOUCH SLOWER
THAN MODEL FCSTS. WENT COOLER ON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY DUE TO
CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY ALSO LIMIT THE INSTABILITY POTENTIAL
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH SLOWER TIMING COULD LEAD TO A
MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL WENT WITH ELEMENTS OF THE SREF
AND WPC FOR QPF FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OVERALL, THURSDAY LOOKS
TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS GENLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S, LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND! DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM GUIDANCE HERE. THINK THE
GFS MAY BE TO QUICK WITH ANY SYSTEM THAT COMES IN NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR TO START. AREAS OF LIFR FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP
BETWEEN 05Z-09Z IN THE COUNTRYSIDE TAF LOCATIONS AND MOVE CLOSE TO
KPHL BETWEEN 10Z-12Z. LIGHT S-SW WIND.
TUESDAY...IFR/LIFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS TO START AT 12Z IMPROVE TO
VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT IN THE AFTN WITH SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE 18Z/20
TAFS. THE CONVECTION MAY NOT ARRIVE TIL AFTER DARK?
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY... MAINLY VFR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES IN THE AFTERNOON TO REDUCE CONDITIONS
TO MVFR OR IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY.... VFR TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS TURNING TO THE WEST AT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS THIS WEEK OCCURS THU.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT NORTH OR VARIABLE.
&&
.MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE THE SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE JUST ABOUT
ENDED. IT HAS BEEN A VERY LOW-END EVENT AND WITH THE WARM AIR OVER
THE COLD WATERS AND THE DECREASING P-GRADIENT...IT APPEARS THAT A
PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS. THE FLAG WILL
BE DROPPED WITH THE 330 PM CWF ISSUANCE. IT APPEARS THE THE SW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE
AREAS OF FOG ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SCAT SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA TILL EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 5 FEET FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TILL EARLY
FRIDAY. SEAS AND WINDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY. WIND WILL ALSO
INCREASE AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES BY THU. A SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
LOW PROB FIRST 90F DAY OF THE SEASON WED AFTN EXCEPTION KILG WHICH
TOUCHED 90F ON 4/10.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 743
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GAINES/NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 743
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KPHI 202238
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
638 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH HOLIDAY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HAVING REVIEWED THE 12Z/20 ECMWF...THE 12 AND 18Z GFS AND 18Z
NAM...THE FCST SCENARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL RIDE THE BLEND OF
THE ECMWF/NAM SINCE THE GFS HAS NOT DEFINED THE LOW LVL MOISTURE
AS WELL AS THE NAM/ECMWF.
ITS DOUBTFUL WHETHER ANY MORE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA THIS
EVENING. WE`VE SEEN THE ISOLATED SMALL SHOWERS IN OCEAN COUNTY AT
630 PM BUT THEY SHOULDNT LAST LONG AS THEY HEADS SEAWARD.
SO THE 630 PM UPDATE HAS COMPLETELY WITHDRAWN SHOWERS FROM THE
FCST. MODELS ARE NOW BASICALLY RAINFREE TONIGHT
THE LACK OF MID AND UPPER LVL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT OPENS THE DOOR
FOR AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. SINCE TEMP/DEWPOINTS
SPREADS AT 22Z WERE STILL LARGE...DELAYED THE FOG FORMATION ABOUT
6 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE COAST...PUMPING IN WARM AND
HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE MEANDERING
ACROSS VA/MD DURING THE DAY. UPPER (H5/H7) HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY
BUILDING EARLY...THEN BEGINNING TO LOWER LATE.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TUE. AREAS OF FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY THAN TODAY...SO A CHC FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE KEPT IN THE FCST FOR TUE. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW 80S NORTH AND MID 80S ACROSS THE METRO PHILADELPHIA
AREA. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ALSO BE ABUNDANT INTO THE REGION. THIS ADVECTION, ALONG A WITH A
WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME INSTABILITY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE INSTABILITY MAY BE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF 1000
J/KG COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED STORM MOTIONS. PULSE TYPE CONVECTION MAY BE
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE FRONT DURING THE DAY. FEEL
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED BUT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY MAY
ALLOW FOR A SCATTERED STRONG STORM. THE OVERALL LACK OF SHEAR WILL
LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY. WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
CONVECTION HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DIFFER IN SPOTS. HAVE GONE ON THE
WARM SIDE GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND RIGHT NOW
THE BEST TIMING FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LATER THURSDAY. AS USUAL
THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER. RAISED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. THOUGH SEVERAL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AND THE 12Z ECMWF HINT THE FRONT MAY BE A TOUCH SLOWER
THAN MODEL FCSTS. WENT COOLER ON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY DUE TO
CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY ALSO LIMIT THE INSTABILITY POTENTIAL
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH SLOWER TIMING COULD LEAD TO A
MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL WENT WITH ELEMENTS OF THE SREF
AND WPC FOR QPF FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OVERALL, THURSDAY LOOKS
TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS GENLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S, LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND! DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM GUIDANCE HERE. THINK THE
GFS MAY BE TO QUICK WITH ANY SYSTEM THAT COMES IN NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...GENERALLY VFR TO START. SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT SSE ALONG THE COASTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER AGAIN LATER TONIGHT IN FOG AND STRATUS AS THE HUMID AIRMASS
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LIGHT WIND. WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR DEVELOPS
LATE.
TUESDAY...IFR/LIFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS TO START AT 12Z IMPROVE TO
VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT IN THE AFTN WITH SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE 18Z/20
TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY... MAINLY VFR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES IN THE AFTERNOON TO REDUCE CONDITIONS
TO MVFR OR IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY.... VFR TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS TURNING TO THE WEST AT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS THIS WEEK OCCURS THU.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT NORTH OR VARIABLE.
&&
.MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE THE SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE JUST ABOUT
ENDED. IT HAS BEEN A VERY LOW-END EVENT AND WITH THE WARM AIR OVER
THE COLD WATERS AND THE DECREASING P-GRADIENT...IT APPEARS THAT A
PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS. THE FLAG WILL
BE DROPPED WITH THE 330 PM CWF ISSUANCE. IT APPEARS THE THE SW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE
AREAS OF FOG ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SCAT SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA TILL EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 5 FEET FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TILL EARLY
FRIDAY. SEAS AND WINDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY. WIND WILL ALSO
INCREASE AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES BY THU. A SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
LOW PROB FIRST 90F DAY OF THE SEASON WED AFTN EXCEPTION KILG WHICH
TOUCHED 90F ON 4/10.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 637P
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GAINES/NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 637P
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...
000
FXUS61 KPHI 202141
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
541 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH HOLIDAY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HAVING REVIEWED THE 12Z/20 ECMWF AND GFS AND 18Z NAM...THE FCST
SCENARIO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL RIDE THE BLEND OF THE ECMWF/NAM
SINCE THE GFS HAS NOT DEFINED THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AS WELL AS THE
NAM/ECMWF.
ITS DOUBTFUL WHETHER ANY MORE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA THIS
EVENING AND THE 630 PM UPDATE WILL COMPLETELY CUT OUT SHOWERS FROM THE
FCST UNLESS COSPA SAYS DIFFERENTLY. COSPA AT WORST PERMITS SPRINKLES
INTO SW DE BETWEEN 7P AND 730P.
THE LACK OF MID AND UPPER LVL CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT OPENS THE DOOR
FOR EXTENSIVE FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.
THE 458 PM LEGACY PRODUCT UPDATE REDUCED THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND WITHDRAW THUNDER. MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY CROSSING CHES
BAY AT 5P IS SLOWLY ENE AND NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BY SUNDOWN FOR THUNDER IN OUR FCST AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE COAST...PUMPING IN WARM AND
HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE MEANDERING
ACROSS VA/MD DURING THE DAY. UPPER (H5/H7) HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY
BUILDING EARLY...THEN BEGINNING TO LOWER LATE.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TUE. AREAS OF FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY THAN TODAY...SO A CHC FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE KEPT IN THE FCST FOR TUE. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW 80S NORTH AND MID 80S ACROSS THE METRO PHILADELPHIA
AREA. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ALSO BE ABUNDANT INTO THE REGION. THIS ADVECTION, ALONG A WITH A
WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME INSTABILITY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE INSTABILITY MAY BE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF 1000
J/KG COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED STORM MOTIONS. PULSE TYPE CONVECTION MAY BE
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE FRONT DURING THE DAY. FEEL
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED BUT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY MAY
ALLOW FOR A SCATTERED STRONG STORM. THE OVERALL LACK OF SHEAR WILL
LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY. WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
CONVECTION HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DIFFER IN SPOTS. HAVE GONE ON THE
WARM SIDE GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND RIGHT NOW
THE BEST TIMING FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LATER THURSDAY. AS USUAL
THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER. RAISED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. THOUGH SEVERAL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AND THE 12Z ECMWF HINT THE FRONT MAY BE A TOUCH SLOWER
THAN MODEL FCSTS. WENT COOLER ON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY DUE TO
CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY ALSO LIMIT THE INSTABILITY POTENTIAL
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH SLOWER TIMING COULD LEAD TO A
MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL WENT WITH ELEMENTS OF THE SREF
AND WPC FOR QPF FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OVERALL, THURSDAY LOOKS
TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS GENLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S, LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND! DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM GUIDANCE HERE. THINK THE
GFS MAY BE TO QUICK WITH ANY SYSTEM THAT COMES IN NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...GENERALLY VFR TO START. SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT SSE ALONG THE COASTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT IN FOG AND STRATUS AS THE HUMID AIRMASS REMAIN
IN PLACE WITH LIGHT WIND. WIDESPREAD IFR AND LIFR DEVELOPS LATE.
TUESDAY...IFR/LIFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS TO START AT 12Z IMPROVE TO
VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT IN THE AFTN WITH SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE 18Z/20
TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY... MAINLY VFR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES IN THE AFTERNOON TO REDUCE CONDITIONS
TO MVFR OR IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY.... VFR TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS TURNING TO THE WEST AT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS THIS WEEK OCCURS THU.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT NORTH OR VARIABLE.
&&
.MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE THE SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE JUST ABOUT
ENDED. IT HAS BEEN A VERY LOW-END EVENT AND WITH THE WARM AIR OVER
THE COLD WATERS AND THE DECREASING P-GRADIENT...IT APPEARS THAT A
PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS. THE FLAG WILL
BE DROPPED WITH THE 330 PM CWF ISSUANCE. IT APPEARS THE THE SW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE
AREAS OF FOG ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SCAT SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA TILL EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 5 FEET FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TILL EARLY
FRIDAY. SEAS AND WINDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY. WIND WILL ALSO
INCREASE AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES BY THU. A SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
LOW PROB FIRST 90F DAY OF THE SEASON WED AFTN EXCEPTION KILG WHICH
TOUCHED 90F ON 4/10.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 540P
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GAINES/NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/NIERENBERG/O`HARA 540P
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...540P
000
FXUS61 KPHI 202104
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
504 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH HOLIDAY THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
458 PM LEGACY PRODUCT UPDATE REDUCING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND WITHDRAW THUNDER. MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY CROSSING CHES
BAY AT 5P IS SLOWLY ENE AND NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BY SUNDOWN FOR THUNDER IN OUR FCST AREA.
THE WARM FRONT IS NOW NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA AND OUR ENTIRE CWA
IS IN THE WARM SECTOR. SEVERAL HUMID DAYS ARE AHEAD WITH OVERNIGHT
PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND THEN SLOW RECOVERY THE FOLLOWING
DAY.
TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION
TO PARTLY CLOUDY BY SUNSET. RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE HUMID AIR
MASS WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. A FEW SCT SHOWERS
MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE DELMARVA OR SRN NJ...BUT THE
CHCS ARE RATHER LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S NORTH
AND MID 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
MOSTLY FROM THE S OR SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE COAST...PUMPING IN WARM AND
HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE MEANDERING
ACROSS VA/MD DURING THE DAY. UPPER (H5/H7) HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY
BUILDING EARLY...THEN BEGINNING TO LOWER LATE.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TUE. AREAS OF FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY THAN TODAY...SO A CHC FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE KEPT IN THE FCST FOR TUE. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW 80S NORTH AND MID 80S ACROSS THE METRO PHILADELPHIA
AREA. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ALSO BE ABUNDANT INTO THE REGION. THIS ADVECTION, ALONG A WITH A
WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME INSTABILITY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE INSTABILITY MAY BE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF 1000
J/KG COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED STORM MOTIONS. PULSE TYPE CONVECTION MAY BE
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE FRONT DURING THE DAY. FEEL
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED BUT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY MAY
ALLOW FOR A SCATTERED STRONG STORM. THE OVERALL LACK OF SHEAR WILL
LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY. WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
CONVECTION HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DIFFER IN SPOTS. HAVE GONE ON THE
WARM SIDE GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND RIGHT NOW
THE BEST TIMING FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LATER THURSDAY. AS USUAL
THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER. RAISED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. THOUGH SEVERAL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AND THE 12Z ECMWF HINT THE FRONT MAY BE A TOUCH SLOWER
THAN MODEL FCSTS. WENT COOLER ON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY DUE TO
CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY ALSO LIMIT THE INSTABILITY POTENTIAL
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH SLOWER TIMING COULD LEAD TO A
MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL WENT WITH ELEMENTS OF THE SREF
AND WPC FOR QPF FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OVERALL, THURSDAY LOOKS
TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS GENLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S, LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND! DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM GUIDANCE HERE. THINK THE
GFS MAY BE TO QUICK WITH ANY SYSTEM THAT COMES IN NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...GENERALLY VFR TO START. SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT SSE ALONG THE COASTS.
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT IN FOG AND SOME ST AS THE HUMID
AIRMASS REMAIN IN PLACE. IF HAVE FOLLOWED THE LAMP GUIDANCE FOR THE
MOST PART WITH WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AGAIN. CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN
BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TUE MORNING...BUT EVENTUALLY VFR BY AFTERNOON.
SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE 18Z MON
TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY... MAINLY VFR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES IN THE AFTERNOON TO REDUCE CONDITIONS
TO MVFR OR IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY.... VFR TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS TURNING TO THE WEST AT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS THIS WEEK OCCURS THU.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT NORTH OR VARIABLE.
&&
.MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE THE SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE JUST ABOUT
ENDED. IT HAS BEEN A VERY LOW-END EVENT AND WITH THE WARM AIR OVER
THE COLD WATERS AND THE DECREASING P-GRADIENT...IT APPEARS THAT A
PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS. THE FLAG WILL
BE DROPPED WITH THE 330 PM CWF ISSUANCE. IT APPEARS THE THE SW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE
AREAS OF FOG ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SCAT SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA TILL EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 5 FEET FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TILL EARLY
FRIDAY. SEAS AND WINDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY. WIND WILL ALSO
INCREASE AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES BY THU. A SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 504
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GAINES/NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/NIERENBERG/O`HARA 504
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
000
FXUS61 KPHI 201944
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
HOLIDAY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE WARM FRONT IS NOW NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA AND OUR ENTIRE CWA IS
IN THE ARM SECTOR. SEVERAL HUMID DAYS ARE AHEAD WITH OVERNIGHT
PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG AND THEN SLOW RECOVERY THE FOLLOWING DAY.
TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION TO
PARTLY CLOUDY BY SUNSET. RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE HUMID AIR MASS
WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF FOG AGAIN TONIGHT. A FEW SCT SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE DELMARVA OR SRN NJ...BUT THE CHCS ARE
RATHER LOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S NORTH AND MID 60S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT MOSTLY FROM
THE S OR SW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE COAST...PUMPING IN WARM AND
HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL BE MEANDERING
ACROSS VA/MD DURING THE DAY. UPPER (H5/H7) HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY
BUILDING EARLY...THEN BEGINNING TO LOWER LATE.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TUE. AREAS OF FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING AND SKIES SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY THAN TODAY...SO A CHC FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE KEPT IN THE FCST FOR TUE. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW 80S NORTH AND MID 80S ACROSS THE METRO PHILADELPHIA
AREA. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ALSO BE ABUNDANT INTO THE REGION. THIS ADVECTION, ALONG A WITH A
WARM AND MUGGY AIRMASS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME INSTABILITY DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE INSTABILITY MAY BE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF 1000
J/KG COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES. SHEAR WILL BE VERY WEAK ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LIMITED STORM MOTIONS. PULSE TYPE CONVECTION MAY BE
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE FRONT DURING THE DAY. FEEL
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED BUT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY MAY
ALLOW FOR A SCATTERED STRONG STORM. THE OVERALL LACK OF SHEAR WILL
LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY. WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
CONVECTION HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY DIFFER IN SPOTS. HAVE GONE ON THE
WARM SIDE GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND RIGHT NOW
THE BEST TIMING FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE IS LATER THURSDAY. AS USUAL
THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER. RAISED POPS TO HIGH
CHANCE BASED ON CURRENT TIMING. THOUGH SEVERAL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AND THE 12Z ECMWF HINT THE FRONT MAY BE A TOUCH SLOWER
THAN MODEL FCSTS. WENT COOLER ON TEMPERATURES THURSDAY DUE TO
CLOUD COVER. THIS MAY ALSO LIMIT THE INSTABILITY POTENTIAL
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH SLOWER TIMING COULD LEAD TO A
MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL WENT WITH ELEMENTS OF THE SREF
AND WPC FOR QPF FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OVERALL, THURSDAY LOOKS
TO HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH MORE
SUNSHINE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS GENLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S, LIGHT WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND! DID NOT STRAY MUCH FROM GUIDANCE HERE. THINK THE
GFS MAY BE TO QUICK WITH ANY SYSTEM THAT COMES IN NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE LONG SLOW CLIMB BACK TO VFR HAS CONTINUED IN MOST AREAS...A FEW
HIGH-END MVFR STILL AT 18Z. DRIER AIR HAS ARRIVED ON A SWRLY/WRLY
FLOW ALOFT...SO CONDITIONS ARE A BIT BETTER TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO
SUNDAY. WINDS HAVE BEEN SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE MOST
PART.
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT IN FOG AND SOME ST AS THE HUMID
AIRMASS REMAIN IN PLACE. IF HAVE FOLLOWED THE LAMP GUIDANCE FOR THE
MOST PART WITH WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AGAIN. CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN
BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TUE MORNING...BUT EVENTUALLY VFR BY AFTERNOON.
SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE 18Z MON
TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY... MAINLY VFR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL TAF SITES IN THE AFTERNOON TO REDUCE CONDITIONS
TO MVFR OR IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY.... VFR TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS TURNING TO THE WEST AT NIGHT. BEST
CHC FOR SHWRS AND TSTMS THIS WEEK OCCURS THU.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT NORTH OR VARIABLE.
&&
.MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE THE SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE JUST ABOUT
ENDED. IT HAS BEEN A VERY LOW-END EVENT AND WITH THE WARM AIR OVER
THE COLD WATERS AND THE DECREASING P-GRADIENT...IT APPEARS THAT A
PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS. THE FLAG WILL
BE DROPPED WITH THE 330 PM CWF ISSUANCE. IT APPEARS THE THE SW WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE
AREAS OF FOG ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SCAT SHOWERS/TSTMS TUE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SEAS AND WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA TILL EARLY WEDNESDAY. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST 5 FEET FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING TILL EARLY
FRIDAY. SEAS AND WINDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY. WIND WILL ALSO
INCREASE AS THE CDFNT APPROACHES BY THU. A SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GAINES/NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
000
FXUS61 KPHI 201558
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1158 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WATERS
OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TODAY. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THAT AREA FOR
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MID-MORNING ESTF UPDATE HAS CONTINUED THE EARLIER TRENDS OF
SLOWLY DISSIPATING FOG AND SMALL BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE LOW
CLOUDS. A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA REGION...THEY ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT A GOOD CLIP. I HAVE
UPDATED SKY/WINDS/TEMPS WITH THIS FCST. MAX TEMPS WERE HELD ABOUT
THE SAME AS BEFORE. IT COULD BE A DIFFICULT MAX FCST IS BREAKS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND THE
WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES TO OUR EAST. AFTER THE SHOWERS
DISSIPATE, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
HOWEVER, SINCE WE WILL NOT BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF ANY
BOUNDARY, AND WE EXPECT WINDS TO BE MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST,
THE FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR AS DENSE AS THIS MORNING. A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE WAS TAKEN FOR OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AS THEY WERE ONCE AGAIN VERY SIMILAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT REMAINS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST THAT THE PERIOD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BE RATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. HOWEVER, IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST REGARDING THE DETAILS AND TIMING. NEVERTHELESS, THE WEEK
SHOULD NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST OF THE TIME, PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT BE FALLING.
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE THE POLAR VORTEX
WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDDLE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC NORTHWESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE
POLAR VORTEX WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER EASTERN CANADA
INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, THE CLOSED LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD START TO INTERACT WITH
THE POLAR VORTEX AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THAT FEATURE`S INFLUENCE
BEGINS TO EXPAND TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIKELY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH`S AXIS SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION
IN THE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
A SHOT OF VERY WARM AIR IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OUR REGION FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. THE SURFACE FRONT FROM THE NORTH
IS NO LONGER FORECAST TO DROP INTO OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, WE
EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS TO RISE WELL INTO THE
80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE SHOULD KEEP READINGS FROM
GETTING OUT OF THE 70S AND 60S.
THE HEAT AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES POSSIBLY RISING INTO
THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE IN THE 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE ON TUESDAY AND AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT,
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS REMAIN POSSIBLE..
THE 0000 UTC GFS AND THE 0000 UTC ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FEATURE.
WE WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY. DRY AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION AT THAT
TIME AND FAIR WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE WARM FRONT HAS PASSED NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA. SFC WINDS ACROSS
THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA FAVOR A SWRLY/WRLY DIRECTION WHILE WINDS
ARE CALM/VRB ELSEWHERE. THE FOG CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE AREA. I EXPECT A SLOW RETURN TO VFR IN MANY AREAS BY
AFTERNOON. ONCE THE SUN RETURNS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND PSBL TSTMS BY MID-AFTERNOON.
OVERALL CONFID IN LOCATION OF TSTM IS LOW AND THEY ARE NOT
INCLUDED IN ANY TAF ATTM.
ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. FOG/LOW
CLOUDS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, BUT
SHOULD NOT BE AS LOW AS THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. ALSO, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD LOWER CEILINGS
AND REDUCE THE VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCE THE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NJ COASTAL WATERS HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON. LOW END SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 5
FEET ACROSS THE WATERS. EVEN THOUGH WINDS MAY NOT REACH 25 KNOTS,
THEY COULD PERIODICALLY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS. WIND DIRECTION
ACROSS THE WATERS WILL VARY THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON WHICH SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONE IS. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, WINDS WILL
BE MORE EASTERLY; SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY EVERYWHERE
LATER TODAY AFTER THE BOUNDARY AS LIFTED OR DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
ARE.
WE HAVE DECIDED NOT TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON WAVES REMAINING 5 FEET OR
GREATER. WE WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AND SEE IF THEY NEED
TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL
WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY ON FRIDAY.
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KNOTS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ONE EXCEPTION. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH
25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN
THE STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY ALSO BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FEET AT THAT TIME.
MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
WATER TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS AND
IT MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON/PO
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON/PO
000
FXUS61 KPHI 201335
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WATERS
OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TODAY. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THAT AREA FOR
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MID-MORNING ESTF UPDATE HAS CONTINUED THE EARLIER TRENDS OF
SLOWLY DISSIPATING FOG AND SMALL BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE LOW
CLOUDS. A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
DELMARVA REGION...THEY ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT A GOOD CLIP. I HAVE
UPDATED SKY/WINDS/TEMPS WITH THIS FCST. MAX TEMPS WERE HELD ABOUT
THE SAME AS BEFORE. IT COULD BE A DIFFICULT MAX FCST IS BREAKS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THAT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND THE
WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES TO OUR EAST. AFTER THE SHOWERS
DISSIPATE, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
HOWEVER, SINCE WE WILL NOT BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF ANY
BOUNDARY, AND WE EXPECT WINDS TO BE MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST,
THE FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR AS DENSE AS THIS MORNING. A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE WAS TAKEN FOR OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AS THEY WERE ONCE AGAIN VERY SIMILAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT REMAINS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST THAT THE PERIOD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BE RATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. HOWEVER, IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST REGARDING THE DETAILS AND TIMING. NEVERTHELESS, THE WEEK
SHOULD NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST OF THE TIME, PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT BE FALLING.
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE THE POLAR VORTEX
WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDDLE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC NORTHWESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE
POLAR VORTEX WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER EASTERN CANADA
INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, THE CLOSED LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD START TO INTERACT WITH
THE POLAR VORTEX AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THAT FEATURE`S INFLUENCE
BEGINS TO EXPAND TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIKELY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH`S AXIS SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION
IN THE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
A SHOT OF VERY WARM AIR IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OUR REGION FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. THE SURFACE FRONT FROM THE NORTH
IS NO LONGER FORECAST TO DROP INTO OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, WE
EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS TO RISE WELL INTO THE
80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE SHOULD KEEP READINGS FROM
GETTING OUT OF THE 70S AND 60S.
THE HEAT AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES POSSIBLY RISING INTO
THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE IN THE 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE ON TUESDAY AND AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT,
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS REMAIN POSSIBLE..
THE 0000 UTC GFS AND THE 0000 UTC ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FEATURE.
WE WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY. DRY AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION AT THAT
TIME AND FAIR WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THE WARM FRONT HAS PASSED NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA. SFC WINDS ACROSS
THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA FAVOR A SWRLY/WRLY DIRECTION WHILE WINDS
ARE CALM/VRB ELSEWHERE. THE FOG CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE
ACROSS THE AREA. I EXPECT A SLOW RETURN TO VFR IN MANY AREAS BY
AFTERNOON. ONCE THE SUN RETURNS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE...WITH SCT SHOWERS AND PSBL TSTMS BY MID-AFTERNOON.
OVERALL CONFID IN LOCATION OF TSTM IS LOW AND THEY ARE NOT
INCLUDED IN ANY TAF ATTM.
ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. FOG/LOW
CLOUDS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, BUT
SHOULD NOT BE AS LOW AS THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. ALSO, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD LOWER CEILINGS
AND REDUCE THE VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCE THE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ON THE NRN TWO NJ COASTAL WATER ZONES HAS
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL NOON.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 5
FEET ACROSS THE WATERS. EVEN THOUGH WINDS MAY NOT REACH 25 KNOTS,
THEY COULD PERIODICALLY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS. WIND DIRECTION
ACROSS THE WATERS WILL VARY THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON WHICH SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONE IS. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, WINDS WILL
BE MORE EASTERLY; SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY EVERYWHERE
LATER TODAY AFTER THE BOUNDARY AS LIFTED OR DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
ARE.
WE HAVE DECIDED NOT TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON WAVES REMAINING 5 FEET OR
GREATER. WE WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AND SEE IF THEY NEED
TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL
WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY ON FRIDAY.
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KNOTS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ONE EXCEPTION. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH
25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN
THE STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY ALSO BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FEET AT THAT TIME.
MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
WATER TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS AND
IT MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON/PO
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
000
FXUS61 KPHI 201206
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
806 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WATERS
OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TODAY. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THAT AREA FOR
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE DENSE FOG...IN MOST AREAS...HAS THINNED AND VSBYS HAVE
INCREASED ABOVE A MILE IN MANY AREAS. WE HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW...WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THERE WILL
STILL BE A FEW AREAS OF THICKER FOG FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME PARTLY SUNNY BY NOON. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT SRN DEL IN A FEW HOURS WITH SMALL CHC POPS INSERTED IN THE
GRIDS/WORDS.
ONCE THE REMAINDER FOG LIFTS, CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO BREAK SOME THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE SOME. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY,
AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
WE HAVE NOT MADE ANY TEMPERATURE CHANGES TO THE FCST AT THIS
POINT, THE MET/MAV MOS NUMBERS FROM BEFORE STILL LOOK GOOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND THE
WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES TO OUR EAST. AFTER THE SHOWERS
DISSIPATE, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
HOWEVER, SINCE WE WILL NOT BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF ANY
BOUNDARY, AND WE EXPECT WINDS TO BE MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST,
THE FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR AS DENSE AS THIS MORNING. A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE WAS TAKEN FOR OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AS THEY WERE ONCE AGAIN VERY SIMILAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT REMAINS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST THAT THE PERIOD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BE RATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. HOWEVER, IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST REGARDING THE DETAILS AND TIMING. NEVERTHELESS, THE WEEK
SHOULD NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST OF THE TIME, PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT BE FALLING.
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE THE POLAR VORTEX
WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDDLE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC NORTHWESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE
POLAR VORTEX WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER EASTERN CANADA
INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, THE CLOSED LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD START TO INTERACT WITH
THE POLAR VORTEX AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THAT FEATURE`S INFLUENCE
BEGINS TO EXPAND TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIKELY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH`S AXIS SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION
IN THE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
A SHOT OF VERY WARM AIR IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OUR REGION FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. THE SURFACE FRONT FROM THE NORTH
IS NO LONGER FORECAST TO DROP INTO OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, WE
EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS TO RISE WELL INTO THE
80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE SHOULD KEEP READINGS FROM
GETTING OUT OF THE 70S AND 60S.
THE HEAT AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES POSSIBLY RISING INTO
THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE IN THE 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE ON TUESDAY AND AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT,
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS REMAIN POSSIBLE..
THE 0000 UTC GFS AND THE 0000 UTC ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FEATURE.
WE WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY. DRY AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION AT THAT
TIME AND FAIR WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. SITES ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MVFR/VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY,
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
IS LOW, SO THEY WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL VARY FROM MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, TO MORE SOUTHERLY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY EVERYWHERE LATER THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. FOG/LOW
CLOUDS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, BUT
SHOULD NOT BE AS LOW AS THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. ALSO, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD LOWER CEILINGS
AND REDUCE THE VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCE THE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY ON THE NRN TWO NJ COASTAL WATER ZONES HAS
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL NOON.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 5
FEET ACROSS THE WATERS. EVEN THOUGH WINDS MAY NOT REACH 25 KNOTS,
THEY COULD PERIODICALLY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS. WIND DIRECTION
ACROSS THE WATERS WILL VARY THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON WHICH SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONE IS. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, WINDS WILL
BE MORE EASTERLY; SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY EVERYWHERE
LATER TODAY AFTER THE BOUNDARY AS LIFTED OR DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
ARE.
WE HAVE DECIDED NOT TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON WAVES REMAINING 5 FEET OR
GREATER. WE WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AND SEE IF THEY NEED
TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL
WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY ON FRIDAY.
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KNOTS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ONE EXCEPTION. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH
25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN
THE STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY ALSO BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FEET AT THAT TIME.
MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
WATER TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS AND
IT MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...PO/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
000
FXUS61 KPHI 200808
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WATERS
OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TODAY. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THAT AREA FOR
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS
DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND CENTRAL DELMARVA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING, AND MAY END UP WASHING OUT AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SO THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS THROUGH
8 AM. AS THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA, THE FOG WILL
DISSIPATE SOME BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. EVEN IF THE BOUNDARY HAPPENS
TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA, FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY
LATE MORNING.
ONCE THE FOG LIFTS, CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO BREAK SOME THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE SOME. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY,
AND WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
MAV/MET MOS NUMBERS WERE SIMILAR, SO A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WAS
TAKEN FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY. WITH THE CLOUDS AND FOG THIS
MORNING, IT MAY TAKE A WHILE FOR TEMPERATURES TO START RISING.
HOWEVER, ONCE THE SUN BREAKS OUT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE
FAIRLY STEADILY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND THE
WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES TO OUR EAST. AFTER THE SHOWERS
DISSIPATE, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
HOWEVER, SINCE WE WILL NOT BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF ANY
BOUNDARY, AND WE EXPECT WINDS TO BE MORE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST,
THE FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR AS DENSE AS THIS MORNING. A
BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE WAS TAKEN FOR OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AS THEY WERE ONCE AGAIN VERY SIMILAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IT REMAINS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST THAT THE PERIOD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH BE RATHER UNSETTLED WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. HOWEVER, IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST REGARDING THE DETAILS AND TIMING. NEVERTHELESS, THE WEEK
SHOULD NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT. MOST OF THE TIME, PRECIPITATION
WILL NOT BE FALLING.
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE THE POLAR VORTEX
WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE MIDDLE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC NORTHWESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES. THE
POLAR VORTEX WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER EASTERN CANADA
INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, THE CLOSED LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD START TO INTERACT WITH
THE POLAR VORTEX AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT AS THAT FEATURE`S INFLUENCE
BEGINS TO EXPAND TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIKELY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH`S AXIS SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION
IN THE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
A SHOT OF VERY WARM AIR IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OUR REGION FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. THE SURFACE FRONT FROM THE NORTH
IS NO LONGER FORECAST TO DROP INTO OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, WE
EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS TO RISE WELL INTO THE
80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS ALONG AND
NEAR THE COAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE SHOULD KEEP READINGS FROM
GETTING OUT OF THE 70S AND 60S.
THE HEAT AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES POSSIBLY RISING INTO
THE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR NORTHWESTWARD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE IN THE 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE ON TUESDAY AND AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT,
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS REMAIN POSSIBLE..
THE 0000 UTC GFS AND THE 0000 UTC ECMWF ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE FEATURE.
WE WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY. DRY AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION AT THAT
TIME AND FAIR WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
IFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THIS MORNING AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. SITES ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MVFR/VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY,
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
IS LOW, SO THEY WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL VARY FROM MORE OF AN EASTERLY DIRECTION NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, TO MORE SOUTHERLY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY EVERYWHERE LATER THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON.
ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. FOG/LOW
CLOUDS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, BUT
SHOULD NOT BE AS LOW AS THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. ALSO, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD LOWER CEILINGS
AND REDUCE THE VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCE THE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 5
FEET ACROSS THE WATERS. EVEN THOUGH WINDS MAY NOT REACH 25 KNOTS,
THEY COULD PERIODICALLY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS. WIND DIRECTION
ACROSS THE WATERS WILL VARY THIS MORNING DEPENDING ON WHICH SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ONE IS. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, WINDS WILL
BE MORE EASTERLY; SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY EVERYWHERE
LATER TODAY AFTER THE BOUNDARY AS LIFTED OR DISSIPATED ACROSS THE
ARE.
WE HAVE DECIDED NOT TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY OVERNIGHT MONDAY AS
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ON WAVES REMAINING 5 FEET OR
GREATER. WE WILL LET LATER SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AND SEE IF THEY NEED
TO EXTEND THE ADVISORY.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL
WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY ON FRIDAY.
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 25 KNOTS FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ONE EXCEPTION. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH
25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY IN
THE STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY ALSO BUILD TO
AROUND 5 FEET AT THAT TIME.
MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE
WATER TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EXISTS AND
IT MAY BECOME DENSE AT TIMES.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
007>010-012>020-026-027.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
000
FXUS61 KPHI 200625
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
225 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL SINK SOUTH AND EAST SLOWLY THROUGH
MID-WEEK. ANOTHER HIGH WILL BUILD TOWARD US FROM EASTERN CANADA. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
OR NEAR OUR AREA LATE ON TUESDAY AND THEN LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE FOR SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE DEVELOPED DENSE FOG WITH WIDESPREAD 1/4-1/2
MILE VISIBILITIES REPORTED. WE WILL RUN IT THROUGH 8 AM AND SEE
HOW THE VISIBILITIES DO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT TRIES
TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD.
OTHERWISE, THE ONSHORE FLOW IN FRONT OF THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT WILL OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE ALONG WITH FOG WILL
PRECEDE THE FRONT AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND IT. POPS
OVERALL WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ARRIVING AT SLGT
CHC/LOW CHC BY MORNING. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE ERLY/SERLY THIS
EVENING AND THEN VEER TO SWRLY BY MON MORNING. LOWS WILL NOT BE
TOO LOW TONIGHT...WITH LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SRN AREAS AND UPPER
50S ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THERE WILL BE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE WEATHER MONDAY. UPPER HEIGHTS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING WARM FRONT WILL BE RISING A LITTLE AND WINDS
THROUGH THE LOWEST LAYERS WILL VEER TO A MORE WRLY DIRECTION. THESE
FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME HIGHER DEW POINTS DURING THE MORNING...AND
ANY SUNSHINE WILL PROBABLY CREATE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING
THE AFTERNOON. POPS WILL BE SLGT CHC IN THE MORNING...RISING TO CHC
BY AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
TSTMS...SO THEY WERE LEFT IN THERE FROM BEFORE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
SWRLY AT AROUND 10 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
WHETHER THAT CONTINUES IS A QUESTION, BUT FOR THE TIME BEING THE
MODELS AGREE AT MID LEVELS THAT THE REMNANTS OF A MID LEVEL LOW THAT
HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EAST WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY AND THEN WEAKEN AS AN EASTERN U.S./WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD. WE CARRY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH THIS.
THE RIDGE THEN BUILDS AND ESTABLISHES A CONFLUENT ZONE OFF NEW
ENGLAND, AND THAT WILL CARRY AN ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA. WHETHER THE
FRONT MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA IS ANOTHER QUESTION. NEITHER THE LATEST
RUN OF THE GFS NOR THE LAST THREE RUNS OF THE ECMWF ARE BRINGING IT
THIS FAR SOUTH, BUT IT MAY GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME ACTIVITY
IN THE TUESDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. WE CARRY CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THAT ARE HIGHEST NORTH.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE TO OUR EAST,
AND THAT OPENS US UP TO ANY ENERGY THAT MIGHT BE KICKING OUT AN
ADVANCING AND WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW. THAT LOW WILL BE PART OF A
REX BLOCK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADA INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY,
BUT THE MODELS AGREE TO OPEN IT AND MOVE IT INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY LATE WEDNESDAY. HPC IS HITTING WEDNESDAY POPS PRETTY HARD;
WE`RE NOT QUITE SO SURE ABOUT WHEN ENERGY FROM THE OPENING LOW MAKES
IT HERE AND SO WE CARRY MORE CHANCE POPS THAT ARE BETTER NORTHWEST
AND FOCUSED AROUND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THROUGH THE ABOVE TIME PERIOD, THERE ALWAYS IS A LOT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND INSTABILITY GENERALLY WAXES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THAT INCREASINGLY BECOMES DUE TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AND THAT RESEMBLES A BERMUDA HIGH, AND IT MEANS THAT WHAT THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER NOTED STILL APPLIES: THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS.
THE LOW FROM THE WEST WEAKENS INTO A NEUTRAL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND
AN EASTERN CANADIAN VORTEX AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. BY
THE END OF THE DAY, THERE IS AN UPPER JET THAT HAS US IN THE RIGHT
EXIT REGION, AND WITHOUT GOING INTO THE SPECIFICS OF THE FORCING AND
THE WIND FIELDS THIS FAR OUT, AT LEAST SOME OF THAT COME TOGETHER
WITH STILL-COPIOUS MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN A TIME PERIOD
CENTERED AROUND THURSDAY EVENING OR THURSDAY NIGHT. OF COURSE, THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE IS TO SOME DEGREE DEPENDENT ON WHEN
THE FRONT ARRIVES. THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WINDS, BUT WE
HAVE LOTS OF TIME AND LOTS OF MODEL RUNS TO ASSESS THAT.
WE NOTE THAT THE TIMING OF THIS HAS SPED UP FROM PREVIOUS RUNS
DESPITE THERE BEING A REX BLOCK UPSTREAM EARLIER IN THE PERIOD, BUT
THIS FORECASTER BIT THE BAIT THANKS TO MODEL AGREEMENT. WE PRESENTLY
CARRY LINGERING CHANCE POPS FOR THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY AND THEN GO
DRY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST ECMWF PUSHES
ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE EASTERN CANADIAN VORTEX LATE IN THE WEEKEND
FURTHER SOUTH. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH SAID ENERGY. THE MID LEVEL
FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY MERIDIONAL, SO EITHER SOLUTION IS A PLAUSIBLE
EXCUSE TO GO OPTIMISTIC.
UNTIL THAT LATE WEEK FRONT ARRIVES, NIGHTTIME MINS WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. DAYTIME MAXES ALSO WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, BUT SUBJECT
TO ANY CONVECTION. IT ALSO WILL BE HUMID UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL AFTER THE
FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A CONTINUATION OF THE MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE SFC/LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY ONSHORE UNTIL THE SFC WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
ONCE THIS HAPPENS...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO S THEN
SW MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW DRIER AIR TO ARRIVE AND AN EVENTUAL
SCOURING OUT OF THE LOWEST CLOUDS. THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
TREND TOMORROW, THE EXACT TIMING MAY BE A FEW HOURS OFF.
MON...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON AND
CIGS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AROUND THE NOON HOUR. THE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW
SCT SHOWERS WITH TEMPORARILY LOWER CONDITIONS LATER MON AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE AT NIGHT TO EARLY IN THE MORNING THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OTHERWISE, ALTHOUGH THEY
WOULD DETERIORATE IN ANY CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE.
THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLE CONVECTION WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ESPECIALLY ON THE TIMING.
FRIDAY...VFR IF CONVECTION CLEARS THE AREA BY THEN. WORSE IF NOT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.MARINE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
DENSE FOG IS PRETTY WIDESPREAD ON THE LAND, AND WITH DEWPOINTS
NEAR OR HIGHER THAN THE WATER TEMPERATURES, DENSE FOG IS LIKELY
OCCURRING ACROSS A PORTION OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS
AND OVER DEL BAY. THE SCA CONDITIONS THAT HAVE BEEN ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS ALREADY APPEAR TO BE HEADING NORTH...SO THE
ONGOING FLAG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...SO WE
WILL EXTEND THE FLAG FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A LOW-END
ADVISORY AT BEST. OCNL SHOWERS AND FOG ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND
SCAT SHOWERS OR A TSTM MONDAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO SRLY LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME SWRLY ON MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION.
OUTLOOK...
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SUB-ADVISORY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE SOME IN ADVANCE OF THE LATE WEEK COLD
FRONT. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE SUB-ADVISORY OVER THE BAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THEY ARE FORECAST TO START AT ADVISORY LEVELS,
SUBSIDE TO SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS ON TUESDAY BUT THEN RISE AGAIN IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
NWR LEWES DE HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE..
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
007>010-012>020-026-027.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450-451.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...KLINE/ROBERTSON/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DELISI
AVIATION...DELISI/O`HARA
MARINE...DELISI/ROBERTSON/O`HARA
EQUIPMENT...
|
