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000
FXUS61 KPHI 010225
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
925 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT PASSES THROUGH OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE 00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NJ AND ERN
PA RESULTING IN CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO/THRU THE TEENS...REACHING
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME COLDER LOCATIONS. HWVR...HI/MID-LVL CLOUDS
ARE ADVANCING STEADILY EASTWARD AND HAVE REACHED WRN PA AS OF
0200Z OR 900 PM. CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD OUR FCST AREA STARTING
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...PUTTING AN END TO MOST OF THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SNOW LAGS BEHIND THE CLOUDS AND SHOULD BE ENTERING WRN OH
SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ZIP ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WILL ACT UPON THE
DISORGANIZED DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE DEL
VALLEY/SRN NJ. P-TYPE ISSUES ABOUND WITH COLD MORNING TEMPS AND WAA
ALOFT...THE USUAL SUSPECTS...ON SCENE. MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL BE SNOW
ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY N/W AT THE ONSET WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
AT THE ONSET FAR S/E. THE FROZEN P-TYPE WILL SLOWLY YIELD TO
FREEZING PCPN FROM S TO N DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS TO BE ALL
SNOW THRU 00Z NORTH OF I-80. P-TYPE ARE ALWAYS TRICKY...SO CHECK BACK
OVERNIGHT FOR THE LATEST.

THE OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT MUCH...USING THE 12Z GFS AS
GUIDANCE...TOTALS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED. THESE TOTALS
WOULD LEAD TO AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EVENT (NORTH - IN THE ALL SNOW
AREA)...AND AT LEAST SOME ICE (ONLY A TRACE IS NEEDED FOR AN
ADVISORY) ELSEWHERE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT 1/10 TO 2/10TH OF AN INCH OF
ICE MAY OCCUR IN PERSISTENT FREEZING RAIN AREAS. WE WILL THEREFORE
ISSUE A WSW (ADVISORY) FOR ALL AREAS FROM 15Z SUN THRU 09Z MONDAY.
THE END TIME IS PROBABLY WELL AFTER THE PCPN ENDS...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME RESIDUAL SLICK AREAS...AND THE OPTION TO EXTEND INTO THE MON
AM DRIVE TIME IS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVENING.  PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD EARLY IN THE EVENING AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED PROGRESS THRU
THE FORECAST AREA. USED THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE COLDER NAM/ECMWF
TO POPULATE OUR WX GRIDS AS COLDER AIR ANCHORED NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. THIS WILL ALLOW FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE AN ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP
TO ONE-TENTH ARE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE I-78, PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET BUT IT CAN
CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
TREND WAS TO END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST EARLIER. EXPECT THE LAST
OF THE PRECIP TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE ON MONDAY.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE A BRISK W-NW WIND ON MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY MORNING SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING AND COOLING
RAPIDLY IN WAKE OF FROPA IN CONCERT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SURGE. FOR
SOME LOCATIONS, HIGHS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT (CLOSE TO FROPA TIME)
BEFORE TEMPS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
BKN CAA STRATOCU THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY BUT AT LOCATIONS THAT
ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE MORE APPRECIABLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, SOLAR
INSOLATION SHOULD OFFSET CAA, THUS ALLOWING TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY
OR EVEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
MOVING OVERHEAD BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME FAVORABLE, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, WHEN THE HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS BECOME CALM. THE FORECAST FOR MIN TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT WEIGHTED TOWARD THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE. IN THIS
SETUP (THE HIGH CENTERED RIGHT ON TOP OF US AND A PRE-EXISTING SNOW
PACK), WE TYPICALLY TRY TO UNDERCUT EVEN THE COLDEST GUIDANCE BY A
FEW DEGREES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH MID
AND HI CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING, WHICH COULD
CURB TEMP DROP OFF).

THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING S-SWLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A SYNOPTIC TROUGH THAT WILL
BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DRAW MILDER AIR UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP LOOKS
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
(PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES) AND IN THE EVENING WHEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC. THE AIRMASS PRECEDING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE WARM AIR AND PRECIP WILL BE COLD, SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO START AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET. A QUICK TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING IN THE
DELMARVA AND NEAR THE COAST. THE COLD AIR TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND IS
OFTEN MORE STUBBORN TO RETREAT WEST OF THE FALL LINE THAN MODELS
SHOW DUE TO THE COMPLEX OROGRAPHY. AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THIS
MODEL BIAS, THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NE PA AND NW NJ FACING A LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN COMPARED
TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEIGHTEN THE WORDING FOR
AN ICING THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGS AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
THEN FREEZING RAIN COULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WITH THIS EVENT IS DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION OF THE
AFD. UNDERCUT TEMP GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT GO WITHOUT A FIGHT AND
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT STRONGER HEATING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM
NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO MID 50S IN THE DELMARVA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SEWD THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER, THE FLOW ALOFT IS STILL OUT OF THE SW SINCE THE UPPER
TROUGH HANGS BACK TOWARD THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
COLD AIR, MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP ANAFRONTAL PRECIP (RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW) ON THE BACK END OF THIS EVENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS HIGHER UNDER THIS SETUP THAN IN MOST CASES
WITH RAIN ENDING AS SNOW.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE 10-20F BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
SATURDAY. A MODERATING TREND WOULD BE IN STORE FOR START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 00Z TAFS CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SCATTERED CI/CS
THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TOWARDS
DAWN ON SUNDAY MORNING. WE HAVE COMPOSED THE TAFS ALONG THE
GFS/LAMP LINES...SO LOWER CONDITIONS ARRIVE MID-MORNING FAR WEST
AND THEN DURING THE AFTERNOON DEL VALLEY AND EAST. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FIRST...THEN CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 30-HR PHL TAF HAS A PRELIM
TIMELINE FOR THAT CHANGE-OVER...WHICH MAY OCCUR SOMEWHAT SOONER AT
MIV/ACY AND LATER OR NOT AT ALL AT ABE/RDG. WINDS LOOK LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD... VARIABLE DIRECTION TONIGHT AND SE/E SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO ZR AND THEN TO R FROM SE TO NW
IN THE EVENING. RDG AND ABE MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR S/IP TO
CONT INTO MUCH OF THE NGT. FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...DRYING TREND WITH A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, STRATOCU AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL MAY LEAD TO MVFR CIGS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP OVERSPREADS LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR
AND IFR DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING TO RA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED. THE RAIN COULD BE MOD TO
HVY AT TIMES. LLWS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT WITH A 60 KT SWLY
JET DEVELOPING AT 2 KFT AGL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PRECIP MAY TRANSITION BACK TO SN FOR
A PERIOD BEFORE ENDING. TIMING OF THIS CHANGEOVER STILL UNCERTAIN.
IFR LIKELY IN SN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE SUB-SCA AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS INTO THE EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND THEN THEY WILL SWITCH AROUND TO EAST OR
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS MOST OF
THE TIME. SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCA-LEVEL NW WINDS.
THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 35 KT GUSTS ON MONDAY
BUT THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER FOR GALES SO NO WATCH WAS ISSUED
ATTM.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS OFF THE 12Z GFS SHOWS STORM-FORCE
WINDS ONLY 600 FT OFF THE GROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR MOVING
OVER THE COLD WATERS WILL NOT PRODUCE A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP FOR
THESE WINDS ALOFT TO BE TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BUT CANNOT LOOK OVER
MECHANICAL MIXING BRINGING DOWN STRONGER GUSTS GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
SPEED SHEER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NW WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND A SECOND ONE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH
THIS SECOND EVENT IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT
SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.
WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOW PACK IS HIGHEST (IN NW PA AND N NJ),
RAPID SNOW MELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL NOT RISE AS
SHARPLY AS AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOW MELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN





000
FXUS61 KPHI 010225
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
925 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT PASSES THROUGH OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE 00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NJ AND ERN
PA RESULTING IN CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO/THRU THE TEENS...REACHING
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME COLDER LOCATIONS. HWVR...HI/MID-LVL CLOUDS
ARE ADVANCING STEADILY EASTWARD AND HAVE REACHED WRN PA AS OF
0200Z OR 900 PM. CLOUDS SHOULD OVERSPREAD OUR FCST AREA STARTING
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...PUTTING AN END TO MOST OF THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SNOW LAGS BEHIND THE CLOUDS AND SHOULD BE ENTERING WRN OH
SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ZIP ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WILL ACT UPON THE
DISORGANIZED DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE DEL
VALLEY/SRN NJ. P-TYPE ISSUES ABOUND WITH COLD MORNING TEMPS AND WAA
ALOFT...THE USUAL SUSPECTS...ON SCENE. MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL BE SNOW
ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY N/W AT THE ONSET WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
AT THE ONSET FAR S/E. THE FROZEN P-TYPE WILL SLOWLY YIELD TO
FREEZING PCPN FROM S TO N DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS TO BE ALL
SNOW THRU 00Z NORTH OF I-80. P-TYPE ARE ALWAYS TRICKY...SO CHECK BACK
OVERNIGHT FOR THE LATEST.

THE OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT MUCH...USING THE 12Z GFS AS
GUIDANCE...TOTALS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED. THESE TOTALS
WOULD LEAD TO AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EVENT (NORTH - IN THE ALL SNOW
AREA)...AND AT LEAST SOME ICE (ONLY A TRACE IS NEEDED FOR AN
ADVISORY) ELSEWHERE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT 1/10 TO 2/10TH OF AN INCH OF
ICE MAY OCCUR IN PERSISTENT FREEZING RAIN AREAS. WE WILL THEREFORE
ISSUE A WSW (ADVISORY) FOR ALL AREAS FROM 15Z SUN THRU 09Z MONDAY.
THE END TIME IS PROBABLY WELL AFTER THE PCPN ENDS...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME RESIDUAL SLICK AREAS...AND THE OPTION TO EXTEND INTO THE MON
AM DRIVE TIME IS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVENING.  PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD EARLY IN THE EVENING AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED PROGRESS THRU
THE FORECAST AREA. USED THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE COLDER NAM/ECMWF
TO POPULATE OUR WX GRIDS AS COLDER AIR ANCHORED NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. THIS WILL ALLOW FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE AN ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP
TO ONE-TENTH ARE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE I-78, PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET BUT IT CAN
CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
TREND WAS TO END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST EARLIER. EXPECT THE LAST
OF THE PRECIP TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE ON MONDAY.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE A BRISK W-NW WIND ON MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY MORNING SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING AND COOLING
RAPIDLY IN WAKE OF FROPA IN CONCERT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SURGE. FOR
SOME LOCATIONS, HIGHS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT (CLOSE TO FROPA TIME)
BEFORE TEMPS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
BKN CAA STRATOCU THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY BUT AT LOCATIONS THAT
ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE MORE APPRECIABLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, SOLAR
INSOLATION SHOULD OFFSET CAA, THUS ALLOWING TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY
OR EVEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
MOVING OVERHEAD BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME FAVORABLE, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, WHEN THE HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS BECOME CALM. THE FORECAST FOR MIN TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT WEIGHTED TOWARD THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE. IN THIS
SETUP (THE HIGH CENTERED RIGHT ON TOP OF US AND A PRE-EXISTING SNOW
PACK), WE TYPICALLY TRY TO UNDERCUT EVEN THE COLDEST GUIDANCE BY A
FEW DEGREES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH MID
AND HI CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING, WHICH COULD
CURB TEMP DROP OFF).

THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING S-SWLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A SYNOPTIC TROUGH THAT WILL
BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DRAW MILDER AIR UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP LOOKS
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
(PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES) AND IN THE EVENING WHEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC. THE AIRMASS PRECEDING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE WARM AIR AND PRECIP WILL BE COLD, SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO START AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET. A QUICK TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING IN THE
DELMARVA AND NEAR THE COAST. THE COLD AIR TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND IS
OFTEN MORE STUBBORN TO RETREAT WEST OF THE FALL LINE THAN MODELS
SHOW DUE TO THE COMPLEX OROGRAPHY. AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THIS
MODEL BIAS, THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NE PA AND NW NJ FACING A LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN COMPARED
TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEIGHTEN THE WORDING FOR
AN ICING THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGS AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
THEN FREEZING RAIN COULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WITH THIS EVENT IS DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION OF THE
AFD. UNDERCUT TEMP GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT GO WITHOUT A FIGHT AND
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT STRONGER HEATING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM
NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO MID 50S IN THE DELMARVA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SEWD THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER, THE FLOW ALOFT IS STILL OUT OF THE SW SINCE THE UPPER
TROUGH HANGS BACK TOWARD THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
COLD AIR, MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP ANAFRONTAL PRECIP (RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW) ON THE BACK END OF THIS EVENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS HIGHER UNDER THIS SETUP THAN IN MOST CASES
WITH RAIN ENDING AS SNOW.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE 10-20F BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
SATURDAY. A MODERATING TREND WOULD BE IN STORE FOR START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 00Z TAFS CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SCATTERED CI/CS
THROUGH THE EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TOWARDS
DAWN ON SUNDAY MORNING. WE HAVE COMPOSED THE TAFS ALONG THE
GFS/LAMP LINES...SO LOWER CONDITIONS ARRIVE MID-MORNING FAR WEST
AND THEN DURING THE AFTERNOON DEL VALLEY AND EAST. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA FIRST...THEN CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN
LATER DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE 30-HR PHL TAF HAS A PRELIM
TIMELINE FOR THAT CHANGE-OVER...WHICH MAY OCCUR SOMEWHAT SOONER AT
MIV/ACY AND LATER OR NOT AT ALL AT ABE/RDG. WINDS LOOK LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD... VARIABLE DIRECTION TONIGHT AND SE/E SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO ZR AND THEN TO R FROM SE TO NW
IN THE EVENING. RDG AND ABE MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR S/IP TO
CONT INTO MUCH OF THE NGT. FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...DRYING TREND WITH A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, STRATOCU AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL MAY LEAD TO MVFR CIGS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP OVERSPREADS LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR
AND IFR DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING TO RA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED. THE RAIN COULD BE MOD TO
HVY AT TIMES. LLWS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT WITH A 60 KT SWLY
JET DEVELOPING AT 2 KFT AGL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PRECIP MAY TRANSITION BACK TO SN FOR
A PERIOD BEFORE ENDING. TIMING OF THIS CHANGEOVER STILL UNCERTAIN.
IFR LIKELY IN SN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE SUB-SCA AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO THROUGH
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS INTO THE EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND THEN THEY WILL SWITCH AROUND TO EAST OR
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS MOST OF
THE TIME. SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCA-LEVEL NW WINDS.
THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 35 KT GUSTS ON MONDAY
BUT THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER FOR GALES SO NO WATCH WAS ISSUED
ATTM.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS OFF THE 12Z GFS SHOWS STORM-FORCE
WINDS ONLY 600 FT OFF THE GROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR MOVING
OVER THE COLD WATERS WILL NOT PRODUCE A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP FOR
THESE WINDS ALOFT TO BE TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BUT CANNOT LOOK OVER
MECHANICAL MIXING BRINGING DOWN STRONGER GUSTS GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
SPEED SHEER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NW WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND A SECOND ONE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH
THIS SECOND EVENT IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT
SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.
WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOW PACK IS HIGHEST (IN NW PA AND N NJ),
RAPID SNOW MELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL NOT RISE AS
SHARPLY AS AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOW MELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 282108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT PASSES THROUGH OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FAIR COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH WHICH CRESTS
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SKIES WILL ONLY
HAVE SOME CI/CS CLOUDS EARLY...THEN THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL MOSTLY GO ALONG WITH THE MAV MOS TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH THE LOWS OCCURRING EARLY...THEN SOME MODERATION OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH TEES ACROSS METRO PHILLY
AND ACROSS THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ZIP ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WILL ACT UPON THE
DISORGANIZED DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE DEL
VALLEY/SRN NJ. P-TYPE ISSUES ABOUND WITH COLD MORNING TEMPS AND WAA
ALOFT...THE USUAL SUSPECTS...ON SCENE. MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL BE SNOW
ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY N/W AT THE ONSET WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
AT THE ONSET FAR S/E. THE FROZEN P-TYPE WILL SLOWLY YIELD TO
FREEZING PCPN FROM S TO N DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS TO BE ALL
SNOW THRU 00Z NORTH OF I-80. P-TYPE ARE ALWAYS TRICKY...SO CHECK BACK
OVERNIGHT FOR THE LATEST.

THE OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT MUCH...USING THE 12Z GFS AS
GUIDANCE...TOTALS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED. THESE TOTALS
WOULD LEAD TO AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EVENT (NORTH - IN THE ALL SNOW
AREA)...AND AT LEAST SOME ICE (ONLY A TRACE IS NEEDED FOR AN
ADVISORY) ELSEWHERE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT 1/10 TO 2/10TH OF AN INCH OF
ICE MAY OCCUR IN PERSISTENT FREEZING RAIN AREAS. WE WILL THEREFORE
ISSUE A WSW (ADVISORY) FOR ALL AREAS FROM 15Z SUN THRU 09Z MONDAY.
THE END TIME IS PROBABLY WELL AFTER THE PCPN ENDS...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME RESIDUAL SLICK AREAS...AND THE OPTION TO EXTEND INTO THE MON
AM DRIVE TIME IS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVENING.  PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD EARLY IN THE EVENING AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED PROGRESS THRU
THE FORECAST AREA. USED THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE COLDER NAM/ECMWF
TO POPULATE OUR WX GRIDS AS COLDER AIR ANCHORED NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. THIS WILL ALLOW FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE AN ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP
TO ONE-TENTH ARE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE I-78, PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET BUT IT CAN
CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
TREND WAS TO END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST EARLIER. EXPECT THE LAST
OF THE PRECIP TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE ON MONDAY.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE A BRISK W-NW WIND ON MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY MORNING SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING AND COOLING
RAPIDLY IN WAKE OF FROPA IN CONCERT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SURGE. FOR
SOME LOCATIONS, HIGHS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT (CLOSE TO FROPA TIME)
BEFORE TEMPS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
BKN CAA STRATOCU THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY BUT AT LOCATIONS THAT
ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE MORE APPRECIABLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, SOLAR
INSOLATION SHOULD OFFSET CAA, THUS ALLOWING TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY
OR EVEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
MOVING OVERHEAD BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME FAVORABLE, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, WHEN THE HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS BECOME CALM. THE FORECAST FOR MIN TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT WEIGHTED TOWARD THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE. IN THIS
SETUP (THE HIGH CENTERED RIGHT ON TOP OF US AND A PRE-EXISTING SNOW
PACK), WE TYPICALLY TRY TO UNDERCUT EVEN THE COLDEST GUIDANCE BY A
FEW DEGREES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH MID
AND HI CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING, WHICH COULD
CURB TEMP DROP OFF).

THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING S-SWLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A SYNOPTIC TROUGH THAT WILL
BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DRAW MILDER AIR UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP LOOKS
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
(PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES) AND IN THE EVENING WHEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC. THE AIRMASS PRECEDING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE WARM AIR AND PRECIP WILL BE COLD, SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO START AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET. A QUICK TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING IN THE
DELMARVA AND NEAR THE COAST. THE COLD AIR TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND IS
OFTEN MORE STUBBORN TO RETREAT WEST OF THE FALL LINE THAN MODELS
SHOW DUE TO THE COMPLEX OROGRAPHY. AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THIS
MODEL BIAS, THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NE PA AND NW NJ FACING A LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN COMPARED
TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEIGHTEN THE WORDING FOR
AN ICING THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGS AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
THEN FREEZING RAIN COULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WITH THIS EVENT IS DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION OF THE
AFD. UNDERCUT TEMP GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT GO WITHOUT A FIGHT AND
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT STRONGER HEATING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM
NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO MID 50S IN THE DELMARVA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SEWD THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER, THE FLOW ALOFT IS STILL OUT OF THE SW SINCE THE UPPER
TROUGH HANGS BACK TOWARD THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
COLD AIR, MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP ANAFRONTAL PRECIP (RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW) ON THE BACK END OF THIS EVENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS HIGHER UNDER THIS SETUP THAN IN MOST CASES
WITH RAIN ENDING AS SNOW.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE 10-20F BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
SATURDAY. A MODERATING TREND WOULD BE IN STORE FOR START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CI/CS INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TOWARDS DAWN AND SUN
MORNING. WE HAVE COMPOSED THE TAFS ALONG THE GFS/LAMP LINES...SO
LOWER CONDITIONS ARRIVE MID-MORNING FAR WEST AND THEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON DEL VALLEY AND EAST. SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
FIRST...THEN CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE 30-HR PHL TAF HAS A PRELIM TIMELINE FOR THAT
CHANGE-OVER. WINDS LOOK LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING NW/W
TODAY AND SE/E SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO ZR AND THEN TO R FROM SE TO NW
IN THE EVENING. RDG AND ABE MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR S/IP TO
CONT INTO MUCH OF THE NGT. FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...DRYING TREND WITH A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, STRATOCU AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL MAY LEAD TO MVFR CIGS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP OVERSPREADS LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR
AND IFR DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING TO RA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED. THE RAIN COULD BE MOD TO
HVY AT TIMES. LLWS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT WITH A 60 KT SWLY
JET DEVELOPING AT 2 KFT AGL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PRECIP MAY TRANSITION BACK TO SN FOR
A PERIOD BEFORE ENDING. TIMING OF THIS CHANGEOVER STILL UNCERTAIN.
IFR LIKELY IN SN.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN SUB-SCA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS
THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS INTO THE EVENING WILL
BE MOSTLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND THEN THEY WILL SWITCH AROUND TO
EAST OR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
MOST OF THE TIME. SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCA-LEVEL NW WINDS.
THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 35 KT GUSTS ON MONDAY
BUT THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER FOR GALES SO NO WATCH WAS ISSUED
ATTM.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS OFF THE 12Z GFS SHOWS STORM-FORCE
WINDS ONLY 600 FT OFF THE GROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR MOVING
OVER THE COLD WATERS WILL NOT PRODUCE A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP FOR
THESE WINDS ALOFT TO BE TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BUT CANNOT LOOK OVER
MECHANICAL MIXING BRINGING DOWN STRONGER GUSTS GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
SPEED SHEER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NW WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND A SECOND ONE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH
THIS SECOND EVENT IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT
SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.
WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOW PACK IS HIGHEST (IN NW PA AND N NJ),
RAPID SNOW MELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL NOT RISE AS
SHARPLY AS AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOW MELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 282108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT PASSES THROUGH OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FAIR COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH WHICH CRESTS
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SKIES WILL ONLY
HAVE SOME CI/CS CLOUDS EARLY...THEN THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL MOSTLY GO ALONG WITH THE MAV MOS TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH THE LOWS OCCURRING EARLY...THEN SOME MODERATION OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH TEES ACROSS METRO PHILLY
AND ACROSS THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ZIP ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WILL ACT UPON THE
DISORGANIZED DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE DEL
VALLEY/SRN NJ. P-TYPE ISSUES ABOUND WITH COLD MORNING TEMPS AND WAA
ALOFT...THE USUAL SUSPECTS...ON SCENE. MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL BE SNOW
ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY N/W AT THE ONSET WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
AT THE ONSET FAR S/E. THE FROZEN P-TYPE WILL SLOWLY YIELD TO
FREEZING PCPN FROM S TO N DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS TO BE ALL
SNOW THRU 00Z NORTH OF I-80. P-TYPE ARE ALWAYS TRICKY...SO CHECK BACK
OVERNIGHT FOR THE LATEST.

THE OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT MUCH...USING THE 12Z GFS AS
GUIDANCE...TOTALS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED. THESE TOTALS
WOULD LEAD TO AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EVENT (NORTH - IN THE ALL SNOW
AREA)...AND AT LEAST SOME ICE (ONLY A TRACE IS NEEDED FOR AN
ADVISORY) ELSEWHERE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT 1/10 TO 2/10TH OF AN INCH OF
ICE MAY OCCUR IN PERSISTENT FREEZING RAIN AREAS. WE WILL THEREFORE
ISSUE A WSW (ADVISORY) FOR ALL AREAS FROM 15Z SUN THRU 09Z MONDAY.
THE END TIME IS PROBABLY WELL AFTER THE PCPN ENDS...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME RESIDUAL SLICK AREAS...AND THE OPTION TO EXTEND INTO THE MON
AM DRIVE TIME IS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVENING.  PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD EARLY IN THE EVENING AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED PROGRESS THRU
THE FORECAST AREA. USED THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE COLDER NAM/ECMWF
TO POPULATE OUR WX GRIDS AS COLDER AIR ANCHORED NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. THIS WILL ALLOW FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE AN ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP
TO ONE-TENTH ARE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE I-78, PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET BUT IT CAN
CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
TREND WAS TO END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST EARLIER. EXPECT THE LAST
OF THE PRECIP TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE ON MONDAY.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE A BRISK W-NW WIND ON MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY MORNING SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING AND COOLING
RAPIDLY IN WAKE OF FROPA IN CONCERT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SURGE. FOR
SOME LOCATIONS, HIGHS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT (CLOSE TO FROPA TIME)
BEFORE TEMPS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
BKN CAA STRATOCU THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY BUT AT LOCATIONS THAT
ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE MORE APPRECIABLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, SOLAR
INSOLATION SHOULD OFFSET CAA, THUS ALLOWING TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY
OR EVEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
MOVING OVERHEAD BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME FAVORABLE, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, WHEN THE HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS BECOME CALM. THE FORECAST FOR MIN TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT WEIGHTED TOWARD THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE. IN THIS
SETUP (THE HIGH CENTERED RIGHT ON TOP OF US AND A PRE-EXISTING SNOW
PACK), WE TYPICALLY TRY TO UNDERCUT EVEN THE COLDEST GUIDANCE BY A
FEW DEGREES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH MID
AND HI CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING, WHICH COULD
CURB TEMP DROP OFF).

THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING S-SWLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A SYNOPTIC TROUGH THAT WILL
BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DRAW MILDER AIR UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP LOOKS
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
(PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES) AND IN THE EVENING WHEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC. THE AIRMASS PRECEDING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE WARM AIR AND PRECIP WILL BE COLD, SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO START AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET. A QUICK TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING IN THE
DELMARVA AND NEAR THE COAST. THE COLD AIR TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND IS
OFTEN MORE STUBBORN TO RETREAT WEST OF THE FALL LINE THAN MODELS
SHOW DUE TO THE COMPLEX OROGRAPHY. AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THIS
MODEL BIAS, THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NE PA AND NW NJ FACING A LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN COMPARED
TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEIGHTEN THE WORDING FOR
AN ICING THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGS AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
THEN FREEZING RAIN COULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WITH THIS EVENT IS DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION OF THE
AFD. UNDERCUT TEMP GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT GO WITHOUT A FIGHT AND
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT STRONGER HEATING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM
NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO MID 50S IN THE DELMARVA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SEWD THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER, THE FLOW ALOFT IS STILL OUT OF THE SW SINCE THE UPPER
TROUGH HANGS BACK TOWARD THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
COLD AIR, MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP ANAFRONTAL PRECIP (RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW) ON THE BACK END OF THIS EVENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS HIGHER UNDER THIS SETUP THAN IN MOST CASES
WITH RAIN ENDING AS SNOW.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE 10-20F BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
SATURDAY. A MODERATING TREND WOULD BE IN STORE FOR START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CI/CS INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TOWARDS DAWN AND SUN
MORNING. WE HAVE COMPOSED THE TAFS ALONG THE GFS/LAMP LINES...SO
LOWER CONDITIONS ARRIVE MID-MORNING FAR WEST AND THEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON DEL VALLEY AND EAST. SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
FIRST...THEN CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE 30-HR PHL TAF HAS A PRELIM TIMELINE FOR THAT
CHANGE-OVER. WINDS LOOK LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING NW/W
TODAY AND SE/E SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO ZR AND THEN TO R FROM SE TO NW
IN THE EVENING. RDG AND ABE MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR S/IP TO
CONT INTO MUCH OF THE NGT. FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...DRYING TREND WITH A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, STRATOCU AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL MAY LEAD TO MVFR CIGS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP OVERSPREADS LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR
AND IFR DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING TO RA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED. THE RAIN COULD BE MOD TO
HVY AT TIMES. LLWS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT WITH A 60 KT SWLY
JET DEVELOPING AT 2 KFT AGL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PRECIP MAY TRANSITION BACK TO SN FOR
A PERIOD BEFORE ENDING. TIMING OF THIS CHANGEOVER STILL UNCERTAIN.
IFR LIKELY IN SN.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN SUB-SCA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS
THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS INTO THE EVENING WILL
BE MOSTLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND THEN THEY WILL SWITCH AROUND TO
EAST OR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
MOST OF THE TIME. SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCA-LEVEL NW WINDS.
THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 35 KT GUSTS ON MONDAY
BUT THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER FOR GALES SO NO WATCH WAS ISSUED
ATTM.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS OFF THE 12Z GFS SHOWS STORM-FORCE
WINDS ONLY 600 FT OFF THE GROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR MOVING
OVER THE COLD WATERS WILL NOT PRODUCE A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP FOR
THESE WINDS ALOFT TO BE TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BUT CANNOT LOOK OVER
MECHANICAL MIXING BRINGING DOWN STRONGER GUSTS GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
SPEED SHEER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NW WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND A SECOND ONE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH
THIS SECOND EVENT IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT
SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.
WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOW PACK IS HIGHEST (IN NW PA AND N NJ),
RAPID SNOW MELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL NOT RISE AS
SHARPLY AS AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOW MELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN





000
FXUS61 KPHI 282108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT PASSES THROUGH OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FAIR COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH WHICH CRESTS
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SKIES WILL ONLY
HAVE SOME CI/CS CLOUDS EARLY...THEN THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL MOSTLY GO ALONG WITH THE MAV MOS TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH THE LOWS OCCURRING EARLY...THEN SOME MODERATION OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH TEES ACROSS METRO PHILLY
AND ACROSS THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ZIP ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WILL ACT UPON THE
DISORGANIZED DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE DEL
VALLEY/SRN NJ. P-TYPE ISSUES ABOUND WITH COLD MORNING TEMPS AND WAA
ALOFT...THE USUAL SUSPECTS...ON SCENE. MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL BE SNOW
ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY N/W AT THE ONSET WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
AT THE ONSET FAR S/E. THE FROZEN P-TYPE WILL SLOWLY YIELD TO
FREEZING PCPN FROM S TO N DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS TO BE ALL
SNOW THRU 00Z NORTH OF I-80. P-TYPE ARE ALWAYS TRICKY...SO CHECK BACK
OVERNIGHT FOR THE LATEST.

THE OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT MUCH...USING THE 12Z GFS AS
GUIDANCE...TOTALS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED. THESE TOTALS
WOULD LEAD TO AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EVENT (NORTH - IN THE ALL SNOW
AREA)...AND AT LEAST SOME ICE (ONLY A TRACE IS NEEDED FOR AN
ADVISORY) ELSEWHERE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT 1/10 TO 2/10TH OF AN INCH OF
ICE MAY OCCUR IN PERSISTENT FREEZING RAIN AREAS. WE WILL THEREFORE
ISSUE A WSW (ADVISORY) FOR ALL AREAS FROM 15Z SUN THRU 09Z MONDAY.
THE END TIME IS PROBABLY WELL AFTER THE PCPN ENDS...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME RESIDUAL SLICK AREAS...AND THE OPTION TO EXTEND INTO THE MON
AM DRIVE TIME IS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVENING.  PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD EARLY IN THE EVENING AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED PROGRESS THRU
THE FORECAST AREA. USED THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE COLDER NAM/ECMWF
TO POPULATE OUR WX GRIDS AS COLDER AIR ANCHORED NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. THIS WILL ALLOW FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE AN ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP
TO ONE-TENTH ARE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE I-78, PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET BUT IT CAN
CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
TREND WAS TO END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST EARLIER. EXPECT THE LAST
OF THE PRECIP TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE ON MONDAY.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE A BRISK W-NW WIND ON MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY MORNING SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING AND COOLING
RAPIDLY IN WAKE OF FROPA IN CONCERT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SURGE. FOR
SOME LOCATIONS, HIGHS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT (CLOSE TO FROPA TIME)
BEFORE TEMPS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
BKN CAA STRATOCU THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY BUT AT LOCATIONS THAT
ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE MORE APPRECIABLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, SOLAR
INSOLATION SHOULD OFFSET CAA, THUS ALLOWING TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY
OR EVEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
MOVING OVERHEAD BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME FAVORABLE, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, WHEN THE HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS BECOME CALM. THE FORECAST FOR MIN TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT WEIGHTED TOWARD THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE. IN THIS
SETUP (THE HIGH CENTERED RIGHT ON TOP OF US AND A PRE-EXISTING SNOW
PACK), WE TYPICALLY TRY TO UNDERCUT EVEN THE COLDEST GUIDANCE BY A
FEW DEGREES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH MID
AND HI CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING, WHICH COULD
CURB TEMP DROP OFF).

THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING S-SWLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A SYNOPTIC TROUGH THAT WILL
BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DRAW MILDER AIR UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP LOOKS
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
(PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES) AND IN THE EVENING WHEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC. THE AIRMASS PRECEDING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE WARM AIR AND PRECIP WILL BE COLD, SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO START AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET. A QUICK TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING IN THE
DELMARVA AND NEAR THE COAST. THE COLD AIR TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND IS
OFTEN MORE STUBBORN TO RETREAT WEST OF THE FALL LINE THAN MODELS
SHOW DUE TO THE COMPLEX OROGRAPHY. AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THIS
MODEL BIAS, THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NE PA AND NW NJ FACING A LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN COMPARED
TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEIGHTEN THE WORDING FOR
AN ICING THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGS AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
THEN FREEZING RAIN COULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WITH THIS EVENT IS DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION OF THE
AFD. UNDERCUT TEMP GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT GO WITHOUT A FIGHT AND
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT STRONGER HEATING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM
NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO MID 50S IN THE DELMARVA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SEWD THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER, THE FLOW ALOFT IS STILL OUT OF THE SW SINCE THE UPPER
TROUGH HANGS BACK TOWARD THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
COLD AIR, MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP ANAFRONTAL PRECIP (RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW) ON THE BACK END OF THIS EVENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS HIGHER UNDER THIS SETUP THAN IN MOST CASES
WITH RAIN ENDING AS SNOW.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE 10-20F BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
SATURDAY. A MODERATING TREND WOULD BE IN STORE FOR START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CI/CS INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TOWARDS DAWN AND SUN
MORNING. WE HAVE COMPOSED THE TAFS ALONG THE GFS/LAMP LINES...SO
LOWER CONDITIONS ARRIVE MID-MORNING FAR WEST AND THEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON DEL VALLEY AND EAST. SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
FIRST...THEN CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE 30-HR PHL TAF HAS A PRELIM TIMELINE FOR THAT
CHANGE-OVER. WINDS LOOK LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING NW/W
TODAY AND SE/E SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO ZR AND THEN TO R FROM SE TO NW
IN THE EVENING. RDG AND ABE MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR S/IP TO
CONT INTO MUCH OF THE NGT. FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...DRYING TREND WITH A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, STRATOCU AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL MAY LEAD TO MVFR CIGS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP OVERSPREADS LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR
AND IFR DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING TO RA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED. THE RAIN COULD BE MOD TO
HVY AT TIMES. LLWS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT WITH A 60 KT SWLY
JET DEVELOPING AT 2 KFT AGL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PRECIP MAY TRANSITION BACK TO SN FOR
A PERIOD BEFORE ENDING. TIMING OF THIS CHANGEOVER STILL UNCERTAIN.
IFR LIKELY IN SN.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN SUB-SCA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS
THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS INTO THE EVENING WILL
BE MOSTLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND THEN THEY WILL SWITCH AROUND TO
EAST OR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
MOST OF THE TIME. SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCA-LEVEL NW WINDS.
THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 35 KT GUSTS ON MONDAY
BUT THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER FOR GALES SO NO WATCH WAS ISSUED
ATTM.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS OFF THE 12Z GFS SHOWS STORM-FORCE
WINDS ONLY 600 FT OFF THE GROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR MOVING
OVER THE COLD WATERS WILL NOT PRODUCE A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP FOR
THESE WINDS ALOFT TO BE TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BUT CANNOT LOOK OVER
MECHANICAL MIXING BRINGING DOWN STRONGER GUSTS GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
SPEED SHEER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NW WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND A SECOND ONE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH
THIS SECOND EVENT IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT
SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.
WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOW PACK IS HIGHEST (IN NW PA AND N NJ),
RAPID SNOW MELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL NOT RISE AS
SHARPLY AS AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOW MELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 282108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTHWEST MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT PASSES THROUGH OUR
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FAIR COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH WHICH CRESTS
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. SKIES WILL ONLY
HAVE SOME CI/CS CLOUDS EARLY...THEN THICKER CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD
OVERNIGHT. WE WILL MOSTLY GO ALONG WITH THE MAV MOS TEMPS TONIGHT
WITH THE LOWS OCCURRING EARLY...THEN SOME MODERATION OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH TEES ACROSS METRO PHILLY
AND ACROSS THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. A
FAST MOVING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ZIP ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE WILL ACT UPON THE
DISORGANIZED DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING
WEST BY MID/LATE MORNING AND DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE DEL
VALLEY/SRN NJ. P-TYPE ISSUES ABOUND WITH COLD MORNING TEMPS AND WAA
ALOFT...THE USUAL SUSPECTS...ON SCENE. MUCH OF THE PCPN WILL BE SNOW
ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY N/W AT THE ONSET WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
AT THE ONSET FAR S/E. THE FROZEN P-TYPE WILL SLOWLY YIELD TO
FREEZING PCPN FROM S TO N DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS TO BE ALL
SNOW THRU 00Z NORTH OF I-80. P-TYPE ARE ALWAYS TRICKY...SO CHECK BACK
OVERNIGHT FOR THE LATEST.

THE OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT MUCH...USING THE 12Z GFS AS
GUIDANCE...TOTALS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ARE EXPECTED. THESE TOTALS
WOULD LEAD TO AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW EVENT (NORTH - IN THE ALL SNOW
AREA)...AND AT LEAST SOME ICE (ONLY A TRACE IS NEEDED FOR AN
ADVISORY) ELSEWHERE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT 1/10 TO 2/10TH OF AN INCH OF
ICE MAY OCCUR IN PERSISTENT FREEZING RAIN AREAS. WE WILL THEREFORE
ISSUE A WSW (ADVISORY) FOR ALL AREAS FROM 15Z SUN THRU 09Z MONDAY.
THE END TIME IS PROBABLY WELL AFTER THE PCPN ENDS...BUT THERE COULD
BE SOME RESIDUAL SLICK AREAS...AND THE OPTION TO EXTEND INTO THE MON
AM DRIVE TIME IS THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS SUNDAY EVENING.  PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD EARLY IN THE EVENING AS THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS IS EXPECTED PROGRESS THRU
THE FORECAST AREA. USED THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE COLDER NAM/ECMWF
TO POPULATE OUR WX GRIDS AS COLDER AIR ANCHORED NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. THIS WILL ALLOW FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE AN ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION OF UP
TO ONE-TENTH ARE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE I-78, PREDOMINANT PTYPE WILL BE SNOW AND SLEET BUT IT CAN
CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN FOR A SHORT PERIOD. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE PRECIP
SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU THE REGION OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
TREND WAS TO END PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST EARLIER. EXPECT THE LAST
OF THE PRECIP TO HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE BEFORE THE START OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE ON MONDAY.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE LOW NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE A BRISK W-NW WIND ON MONDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR MONDAY MORNING SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING AND COOLING
RAPIDLY IN WAKE OF FROPA IN CONCERT WITH THE POST-FRONTAL SURGE. FOR
SOME LOCATIONS, HIGHS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT (CLOSE TO FROPA TIME)
BEFORE TEMPS DECREASE DURING THE DAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST
BKN CAA STRATOCU THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY BUT AT LOCATIONS THAT
ARE ABLE TO RECEIVE MORE APPRECIABLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, SOLAR
INSOLATION SHOULD OFFSET CAA, THUS ALLOWING TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY
OR EVEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
MOVING OVERHEAD BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BECOME FAVORABLE, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT, WHEN THE HIGH
MOVES OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS BECOME CALM. THE FORECAST FOR MIN TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT WEIGHTED TOWARD THE COLDER END OF GUIDANCE. IN THIS
SETUP (THE HIGH CENTERED RIGHT ON TOP OF US AND A PRE-EXISTING SNOW
PACK), WE TYPICALLY TRY TO UNDERCUT EVEN THE COLDEST GUIDANCE BY A
FEW DEGREES BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH MID
AND HI CLOUDS SPREADING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING, WHICH COULD
CURB TEMP DROP OFF).

THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY. STRENGTHENING S-SWLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND AHEAD OF A SYNOPTIC TROUGH THAT WILL
BE AMPLIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL DRAW MILDER AIR UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PRECIP LOOKS
TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
(PRIMARILY IN OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES) AND IN THE EVENING WHEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC. THE AIRMASS PRECEDING THE ARRIVAL
OF THE WARM AIR AND PRECIP WILL BE COLD, SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO START AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET. A QUICK TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN AND THEN RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING IN THE
DELMARVA AND NEAR THE COAST. THE COLD AIR TRAPPED NEAR THE GROUND IS
OFTEN MORE STUBBORN TO RETREAT WEST OF THE FALL LINE THAN MODELS
SHOW DUE TO THE COMPLEX OROGRAPHY. AFTER TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THIS
MODEL BIAS, THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
NE PA AND NW NJ FACING A LONGER DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN COMPARED
TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEIGHTEN THE WORDING FOR
AN ICING THREAT IN THE HWO.

THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGS AROUND A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST,
THEN FREEZING RAIN COULD PERSIST INTO THE MORNING IN THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE THREAT FOR
FLOODING WITH THIS EVENT IS DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION OF THE
AFD. UNDERCUT TEMP GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY
ESPECIALLY INLAND SINCE THE COLD AIR WILL NOT GO WITHOUT A FIGHT AND
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT STRONGER HEATING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM
NEAR 40F IN THE POCONOS TO MID 50S IN THE DELMARVA.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SEWD THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.
THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY UNDER NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER, THE FLOW ALOFT IS STILL OUT OF THE SW SINCE THE UPPER
TROUGH HANGS BACK TOWARD THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
COLD AIR, MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP ANAFRONTAL PRECIP (RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW) ON THE BACK END OF THIS EVENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS HIGHER UNDER THIS SETUP THAN IN MOST CASES
WITH RAIN ENDING AS SNOW.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE 10-20F BELOW NORMAL TO END THE WORK WEEK. THE HIGH IS
THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
SATURDAY. A MODERATING TREND WOULD BE IN STORE FOR START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 18Z TAFS WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SKY COVER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CI/CS INTO THE
EVENING...BEFORE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TOWARDS DAWN AND SUN
MORNING. WE HAVE COMPOSED THE TAFS ALONG THE GFS/LAMP LINES...SO
LOWER CONDITIONS ARRIVE MID-MORNING FAR WEST AND THEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON DEL VALLEY AND EAST. SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
FIRST...THEN CHANGE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN LATER DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE 30-HR PHL TAF HAS A PRELIM TIMELINE FOR THAT
CHANGE-OVER. WINDS LOOK LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...FAVORING NW/W
TODAY AND SE/E SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO ZR AND THEN TO R FROM SE TO NW
IN THE EVENING. RDG AND ABE MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR S/IP TO
CONT INTO MUCH OF THE NGT. FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...DRYING TREND WITH A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, STRATOCU AROUND 3-4 KFT AGL MAY LEAD TO MVFR CIGS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRECIP OVERSPREADS LATE IN THE
AFTN AND EVE. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR
AND IFR DURING THIS TIME. PRECIP MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX BEFORE
CHANGING TO RA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED. THE RAIN COULD BE MOD TO
HVY AT TIMES. LLWS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT WITH A 60 KT SWLY
JET DEVELOPING AT 2 KFT AGL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...PRECIP MAY TRANSITION BACK TO SN FOR
A PERIOD BEFORE ENDING. TIMING OF THIS CHANGEOVER STILL UNCERTAIN.
IFR LIKELY IN SN.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN SUB-SCA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS
THIS EVENING WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS INTO THE EVENING WILL
BE MOSTLY NORTH OR NORTHWEST AND THEN THEY WILL SWITCH AROUND TO
EAST OR SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS
MOST OF THE TIME. SNOW/SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SCA-LEVEL NW WINDS.
THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR 35 KT GUSTS ON MONDAY
BUT THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER FOR GALES SO NO WATCH WAS ISSUED
ATTM.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW. SOUNDINGS OFF THE 12Z GFS SHOWS STORM-FORCE
WINDS ONLY 600 FT OFF THE GROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR MOVING
OVER THE COLD WATERS WILL NOT PRODUCE A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP FOR
THESE WINDS ALOFT TO BE TRANSPORTED DOWNWARD BUT CANNOT LOOK OVER
MECHANICAL MIXING BRINGING DOWN STRONGER GUSTS GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
SPEED SHEER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...NW WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND A SECOND ONE ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES BY
WEDNESDAY ABOVE FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH
THIS SECOND EVENT IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT
SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.
WHERE THE DEPTH OF THE SNOW PACK IS HIGHEST (IN NW PA AND N NJ),
RAPID SNOW MELT IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE TEMPS WILL NOT RISE AS
SHARPLY AS AREAS TO THE SOUTH.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOW MELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO/KLEIN





000
FXUS61 KPHI 281545
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1045 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS
WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEW
POINTS/WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CENTERS ITSELF
OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY, WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL, AROUND 20 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 MPH UNTIL THE HIGH FULLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BEFORE
BEGINNING TO BUILD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE CALM,
COOL, DRY WEATHER. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY HELP LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS REMAIN
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY IN THE
RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ON MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE
EVENT. A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, WITH OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AND SLEET.

BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS, WE COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH, TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN MAY
LAST THE LONGEST. LESSER AMOUNT ARE ANTICIPATED ON EITHER SIDE OF
THOSE AREAS.

A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 30S UP NORTH AND INTO THE 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
MORNING. MILD AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. THE PERCEPTION
MAY END AS A BIT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH AS COLD AIR RETURNS
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE MAY BE
SOME FLOODING AS THE RAINFALL COMBINES WITH SNOW MELT AND AS ICE
BEGINS TO MOVE ON AREA WATERWAYS DUE TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES.

COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 KNOTS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS RAIN BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A
WINTRY MIX.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
THE RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WHEN THERE IS A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND, BEFORE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK..

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY DUE TO A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND
ONE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND EVENT
IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR SAT/28TH.

POR / SITE / FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /   9 1934
1874 / KACY /   2 1934
1894 / KILG /  -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /   3 1934
1865 / KTTN /   1 1934
1948 / KGED /   8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS
BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE
ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY
2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT
2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO
BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY 2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3
DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO
WE DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281545
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1045 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS
WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEW
POINTS/WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CENTERS ITSELF
OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY, WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL, AROUND 20 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 MPH UNTIL THE HIGH FULLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BEFORE
BEGINNING TO BUILD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE CALM,
COOL, DRY WEATHER. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY HELP LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS REMAIN
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY IN THE
RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ON MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE
EVENT. A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, WITH OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AND SLEET.

BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS, WE COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH, TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN MAY
LAST THE LONGEST. LESSER AMOUNT ARE ANTICIPATED ON EITHER SIDE OF
THOSE AREAS.

A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 30S UP NORTH AND INTO THE 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
MORNING. MILD AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. THE PERCEPTION
MAY END AS A BIT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH AS COLD AIR RETURNS
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE MAY BE
SOME FLOODING AS THE RAINFALL COMBINES WITH SNOW MELT AND AS ICE
BEGINS TO MOVE ON AREA WATERWAYS DUE TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES.

COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 KNOTS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS RAIN BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A
WINTRY MIX.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
THE RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WHEN THERE IS A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND, BEFORE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK..

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY DUE TO A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND
ONE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND EVENT
IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR SAT/28TH.

POR / SITE / FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /   9 1934
1874 / KACY /   2 1934
1894 / KILG /  -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /   3 1934
1865 / KTTN /   1 1934
1948 / KGED /   8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS
BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE
ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY
2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT
2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO
BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY 2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3
DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO
WE DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 281545
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1045 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS
WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEW
POINTS/WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CENTERS ITSELF
OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY, WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL, AROUND 20 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 MPH UNTIL THE HIGH FULLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BEFORE
BEGINNING TO BUILD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE CALM,
COOL, DRY WEATHER. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY HELP LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS REMAIN
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY IN THE
RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ON MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE
EVENT. A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, WITH OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AND SLEET.

BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS, WE COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH, TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN MAY
LAST THE LONGEST. LESSER AMOUNT ARE ANTICIPATED ON EITHER SIDE OF
THOSE AREAS.

A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 30S UP NORTH AND INTO THE 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
MORNING. MILD AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. THE PERCEPTION
MAY END AS A BIT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH AS COLD AIR RETURNS
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE MAY BE
SOME FLOODING AS THE RAINFALL COMBINES WITH SNOW MELT AND AS ICE
BEGINS TO MOVE ON AREA WATERWAYS DUE TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES.

COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 KNOTS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS RAIN BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A
WINTRY MIX.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
THE RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WHEN THERE IS A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND, BEFORE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK..

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY DUE TO A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND
ONE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND EVENT
IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR SAT/28TH.

POR / SITE / FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /   9 1934
1874 / KACY /   2 1934
1894 / KILG /  -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /   3 1934
1865 / KTTN /   1 1934
1948 / KGED /   8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS
BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE
ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY
2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT
2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO
BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY 2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3
DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO
WE DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 281545
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1045 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS
WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PREVIOUS FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEW
POINTS/WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CENTERS ITSELF
OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY, WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL, AROUND 20 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 MPH UNTIL THE HIGH FULLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BEFORE
BEGINNING TO BUILD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE CALM,
COOL, DRY WEATHER. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY HELP LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS REMAIN
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY IN THE
RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ON MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE
EVENT. A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, WITH OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AND SLEET.

BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS, WE COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH, TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN MAY
LAST THE LONGEST. LESSER AMOUNT ARE ANTICIPATED ON EITHER SIDE OF
THOSE AREAS.

A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 30S UP NORTH AND INTO THE 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
MORNING. MILD AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. THE PERCEPTION
MAY END AS A BIT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH AS COLD AIR RETURNS
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE MAY BE
SOME FLOODING AS THE RAINFALL COMBINES WITH SNOW MELT AND AS ICE
BEGINS TO MOVE ON AREA WATERWAYS DUE TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES.

COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 KNOTS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS RAIN BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A
WINTRY MIX.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
THE RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WHEN THERE IS A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND, BEFORE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK..

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY DUE TO A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND
ONE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND EVENT
IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR SAT/28TH.

POR / SITE / FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /   9 1934
1874 / KACY /   2 1934
1894 / KILG /  -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /   3 1934
1865 / KTTN /   1 1934
1948 / KGED /   8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS
BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE
ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY
2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT
2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO
BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY 2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3
DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO
WE DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 280904
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
404 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS
WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CENTERS ITSELF
OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY, WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL, AROUND 20 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 MPH UNTIL THE HIGH FULLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BEFORE
BEGINNING TO BUILD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE CALM,
COOL, DRY WEATHER. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY HELP LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS REMAIN
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY IN THE
RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ON MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE
EVENT. A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, WITH OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AND SLEET.

BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS, WE COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH, TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN MAY
LAST THE LONGEST. LESSER AMOUNT ARE ANTICIPATED ON EITHER SIDE OF
THOSE AREAS.

A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 30S UP NORTH AND INTO THE 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
MORNING. MILD AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. THE PERCEPTION
MAY END AS A BIT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH AS COLD AIR RETURNS
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE MAY BE
SOME FLOODING AS THE RAINFALL COMBINES WITH SNOW MELT AND AS ICE
BEGINS TO MOVE ON AREA WATERWAYS DUE TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES.

COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 KNOTS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS RAIN BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A
WINTRY MIX.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
THE RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WHEN THERE IS A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND, BEFORE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK..

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY DUE TO A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND
ONE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND EVENT
IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR SAT/28TH.

POR / SITE / FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /   9 1934
1874 / KACY /   2 1934
1894 / KILG /  -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /   3 1934
1865 / KTTN /   1 1934
1948 / KGED /   8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS
BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE
ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY
2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT
2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO
BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY 2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3
DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO
WE DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...FRANCK/DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 280904
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
404 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BUILD TO THE EAST. THE HIGH
IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND IT SHOULD
PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, THEN DOWN THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A COLD FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS
WAKE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CENTERS ITSELF
OVERHEAD BY THE END OF THE DAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH TODAY, WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL, AROUND 20 DEGREES IN MOST PLACES.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 MPH UNTIL THE HIGH FULLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING, BEFORE
BEGINNING TO BUILD OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE CALM,
COOL, DRY WEATHER. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH MAY HELP LEVEL TEMPERATURES OFF SOME OVERNIGHT AND PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE NIGHT. LOWS REMAIN
15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BUILDING INTO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY IN THE
RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE
PRECIPITATION. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON SUNDAY MORNING.

THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN
END FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST A TRANSITION FROM
SNOW THROUGH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN ON MUCH OF THE
COASTAL PLAIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE
EVENT. A CHANGE FROM SNOW TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE, WITH OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES LIKELY TO REMAIN ALL SNOW AND SLEET.

BASED ON THE LATEST PROJECTIONS, WE COULD SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH, TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH MAY BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY WHERE THE FREEZING RAIN MAY
LAST THE LONGEST. LESSER AMOUNT ARE ANTICIPATED ON EITHER SIDE OF
THOSE AREAS.

A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE 30S UP NORTH AND INTO THE 40S IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

A MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY
MORNING. MILD AIR IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO RAIN ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. THE PERCEPTION
MAY END AS A BIT OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY UP NORTH AS COLD AIR RETURNS
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THERE MAY BE
SOME FLOODING AS THE RAINFALL COMBINES WITH SNOW MELT AND AS ICE
BEGINS TO MOVE ON AREA WATERWAYS DUE TO THE MILD TEMPERATURES.

COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT REMAIN VFR.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST-NORTH AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY, BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION.

SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED PRECIPITATION.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 KNOTS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR.

MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON, AS RAIN BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. THE RAIN MAY BEGIN AS A
WINTRY MIX.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN.
THE RAIN MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.
THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY WHEN THERE IS A STEADY NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND, BEFORE WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK..

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BECOME
NECESSARY DUE TO A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY DUE TO A
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND
ONE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND EVENT
IS ABOUT 4 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 4 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN
MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T
CAUSE FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING
FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR SAT/28TH.

POR / SITE / FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /   9 1934
1874 / KACY /   2 1934
1894 / KILG /  -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /   3 1934
1865 / KTTN /   1 1934
1948 / KGED /   8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS
BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE
ON TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY
2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015
MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES. TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT
2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO
BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY 2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3
DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO
WE DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...FRANCK/DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 280215
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
915 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST ARRIVES
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MOVES TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY.
ITS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
WITH AN ATTENDANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY FILTERS INTO OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE WINDS HAVE NOT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE YET THRUT MOST OF OUR
CWA AND TEMPS OUTSIDE OF NORTHWEST NJ HAVE BEEN HOLDING THEIR OWN.
WE HAVE ADJUSTED THEM UPWARD IN MOST PLACES FOR THIS TREND, BUT
THEN DROPPED THEM QUICKLY TOWARD THE BACK END OF THE NIGHT WITH
THE NET EFFECT OF SIMILAR MIN TEMPERATURES. OHIO VALLEY CLOUDINESS
HAS BEEN DISSIPATING, SO WE MADE SKIES CLEARER OVERNIGHT. PLEASE
SEE CLIMATE SECTION ABOUT MIN TEMP RECORDS BEING THREATENED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES INCORPORATE THE GFS MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES
WHICH SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLED THE SNOWCOVER AND THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE SETS. SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OUTSIDE OF PHILADELPHIA
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT BUT COLD DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER 10 MPH, PERHAPS SHIFTING
TO MORE WESTERLY LATE. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ONLY SOME
HIGH CIRRUS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS HAVE BEEN
TO COOL WITH HIGHS IN RECENT SUNNY DAYS, WENT A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER WITH HIGHS DUE TO RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**WINTERY WX EVENTS SLATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AT
  LEAST IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ**

500MB: A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT MOVES
TO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY; THEN A PARTIAL PHASING OF SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
THE PLAINS STATES. THAT TROUGH MOVES TO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY WHILE A
TRAILING SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS NEXT FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

TEMPERATURES: WE`RE IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OUT THE TOP 5 OR 6
COLDEST FEBRUARY IN LONG TERM CLIMAT HISTORY DATING BACK TO THE
1870S; THE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RECORD LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING COUNTRYSIDE NEAR ATLANTIC CITY
AND MAYBE NEAR TRENTON, DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THICK CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES AT 06Z OR 9Z. A LATER ARRIVAL PERMITS A BETTER CHC OF RECORDS.
MONDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT IT COOLS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY IS
PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH POTENTIAL 50S TO
LOWER 60S I-95 SEWD AND CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THEREAFTER, THE 12Z/27 ECMWF ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN
HAS COME INTO GREATER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON ANOTHER COLD SHOT
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK, DAYTIME MAX TEMP COLD BIAS
NOTWITHSTANDING. TEMPS MAY RUN 5 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 50 50 BLEND 12Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT, 12Z/27 MEX MOS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN THE 15Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY-
NEXT FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY (CIRRUS EARLY EVENING)
WITH STRONG COUNTRYSIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE KTTN AND KACY, THEN CLOUDING UP RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNRISE.
LIGHT WIND. RECORDS DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THICK
CLOUD COVER. THE WARMER NAM TEMPS WERE NOT FACTORED INTO THIS
SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST AT ALL. GFS 2M TEMPS ARE A SIGNIFICANT
INDICATOR OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ADVISORY EVENT HIGHLY PROBABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY: PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MIDDAY OR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PHL SEWD A TINY BIT OF SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH WIND. MEANWHILE SNOW ACCUMULATES
NW OF I-95 AND WHILE WE JUST DON`T KNOW HOW MUCH (2 TO 6"--HEAVIEST
SOMEWHERE N OF I-78), WE DO SEE THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUBFREEZING
FOR QUITE A BIT OF TIME SO THAT EVEN IF A WARM ABOVE FREEZING NOSE
POKES NORTHWARD, WE ARE THEN LOOKING AT ICE. LIGHT WIND.

MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLY 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS CONCERN THAT THIS EVENT WILL END UP MOSTLY SNOW AND LESS
FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...SE OF I95 WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF NON FREEZING RAIN AFTER 08Z MONDAY.

ONE CAUSE OF THE PCPN IS AN INSTABILITY BURST HEADED FOR THE DELMARVA.

MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AT SUNRISE QUICKLY END ALONG THE
COAST, THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WITH NW WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG CAA.

MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.   LIGHT WIND.

TUESDAY...THICKENING CLOUDS.  CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE DAY?  LIGHT
SOUTH WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY MIXED WINTRY PCPN QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN I-95
SEWD BUT NW OF I-95 SNOW CHANGES TO ICE AND THEN PROBABLY RAIN.
TIMING UNCERTAIN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHIFT SW LATE. ANOTHER STRONG
INSTABILITY BURST THAT NOSES TO THE DELMARVA.

WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND MILDER. HOW MILD IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH 60 PHL SEWD?, COOLER TO
THE NORTH AND WARMTH DEPENDENT IN PART ON SOUTHWEST FLOW MIXING.
SW WIND SHIFTS TO NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING...THE CFP TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IF A WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT THEN POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A TOUCH OF SNOW?

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TURNING MUCH COLDER. NW WIND GUSTY 25-30
MPH.

FRIDAY...FAIR AND COLD.  W-NW WIND GUST 20 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 00Z TAFS ARE VFR WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. POSSIBLY SOME CIRRUS/HIGH
BASED ALTOCU FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE TO THE NORTH. FORECAST GROUP SHOWS AN AVERAGE WIND DIRECTION
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE WEIGHED MORE TO THE
EVENING, OVERALL THOUGH SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND MORE
RURAL TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER
TONIGHT. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

SATURDAY...VFR. POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY MORE CIRRUS OR HIGH BASED ALTO
CU. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AVERAGING AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CLEAR TO START WITH LIGHT
WIND THEN RAPIDLY LOWERING CIGS TO NEAR 5000 FT FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE 09Z-17Z TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW CHANGING TO ICE
KRDG/KABE/KTTN/KPNE. LIGHT WIND.

MONDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH A GUSTY NW WIND 30 TO POSSIBLY 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR CIRRUS THEN MVFR OR IFR CONDS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE
IN THE DAY CHANGING TO ICE OR RAIN AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER ANY LEFTOVER MORNING IFR OR
MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS? SW WIND SHIFTING NW.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS SEAS ARE SLOWLY
FALLING AND REMAINING BELOW FIVE FEET. THE 18Z WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE
SHOWS THIS SLOW FALL TREND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.  SEAS AND WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED.

NW GALE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS MONDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND ONE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND
EVENT IS ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 5 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN MIND
THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T CAUSE
FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR FRI/27TH AND SAT/28TH. NO RECORDS WERE SET
TODAY ALTHOUGH KACY WAS CLOSE...3 DEGREES OFF THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS ON SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27          /  FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900  NO RER  /  9 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1874 / KACY /  7 1934* NO RER  /  2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934  NO RER  / -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963  NO RER  /-10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934* NO RER  /  3 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934  NO RER  /  1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963  NO RER  /  8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993  NO RER  /-15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS (27TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND
SFT`S. WE SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO PRIOR PROJECTIONS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY
2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN
JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KGED SUNSHINE MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO WARM. A TROUBLE TICKET
IS POSTED ON THIS TEMPERATURE SENSOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...FRANCK/DRAG
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 280215
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
915 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST ARRIVES
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MOVES TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY.
ITS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
WITH AN ATTENDANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY FILTERS INTO OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE WINDS HAVE NOT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE YET THRUT MOST OF OUR
CWA AND TEMPS OUTSIDE OF NORTHWEST NJ HAVE BEEN HOLDING THEIR OWN.
WE HAVE ADJUSTED THEM UPWARD IN MOST PLACES FOR THIS TREND, BUT
THEN DROPPED THEM QUICKLY TOWARD THE BACK END OF THE NIGHT WITH
THE NET EFFECT OF SIMILAR MIN TEMPERATURES. OHIO VALLEY CLOUDINESS
HAS BEEN DISSIPATING, SO WE MADE SKIES CLEARER OVERNIGHT. PLEASE
SEE CLIMATE SECTION ABOUT MIN TEMP RECORDS BEING THREATENED.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS CLOUDS ALONG
THE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES INCORPORATE THE GFS MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES
WHICH SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLED THE SNOWCOVER AND THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE SETS. SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OUTSIDE OF PHILADELPHIA
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT BUT COLD DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER 10 MPH, PERHAPS SHIFTING
TO MORE WESTERLY LATE. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ONLY SOME
HIGH CIRRUS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS HAVE BEEN
TO COOL WITH HIGHS IN RECENT SUNNY DAYS, WENT A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER WITH HIGHS DUE TO RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**WINTERY WX EVENTS SLATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AT
  LEAST IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ**

500MB: A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT MOVES
TO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY; THEN A PARTIAL PHASING OF SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
THE PLAINS STATES. THAT TROUGH MOVES TO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY WHILE A
TRAILING SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS NEXT FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

TEMPERATURES: WE`RE IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OUT THE TOP 5 OR 6
COLDEST FEBRUARY IN LONG TERM CLIMAT HISTORY DATING BACK TO THE
1870S; THE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RECORD LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING COUNTRYSIDE NEAR ATLANTIC CITY
AND MAYBE NEAR TRENTON, DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THICK CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES AT 06Z OR 9Z. A LATER ARRIVAL PERMITS A BETTER CHC OF RECORDS.
MONDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT IT COOLS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY IS
PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH POTENTIAL 50S TO
LOWER 60S I-95 SEWD AND CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THEREAFTER, THE 12Z/27 ECMWF ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN
HAS COME INTO GREATER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON ANOTHER COLD SHOT
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK, DAYTIME MAX TEMP COLD BIAS
NOTWITHSTANDING. TEMPS MAY RUN 5 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 50 50 BLEND 12Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT, 12Z/27 MEX MOS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN THE 15Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY-
NEXT FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY (CIRRUS EARLY EVENING)
WITH STRONG COUNTRYSIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE KTTN AND KACY, THEN CLOUDING UP RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNRISE.
LIGHT WIND. RECORDS DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THICK
CLOUD COVER. THE WARMER NAM TEMPS WERE NOT FACTORED INTO THIS
SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST AT ALL. GFS 2M TEMPS ARE A SIGNIFICANT
INDICATOR OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ADVISORY EVENT HIGHLY PROBABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY: PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MIDDAY OR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PHL SEWD A TINY BIT OF SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH WIND. MEANWHILE SNOW ACCUMULATES
NW OF I-95 AND WHILE WE JUST DON`T KNOW HOW MUCH (2 TO 6"--HEAVIEST
SOMEWHERE N OF I-78), WE DO SEE THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUBFREEZING
FOR QUITE A BIT OF TIME SO THAT EVEN IF A WARM ABOVE FREEZING NOSE
POKES NORTHWARD, WE ARE THEN LOOKING AT ICE. LIGHT WIND.

MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLY 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS CONCERN THAT THIS EVENT WILL END UP MOSTLY SNOW AND LESS
FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...SE OF I95 WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF NON FREEZING RAIN AFTER 08Z MONDAY.

ONE CAUSE OF THE PCPN IS AN INSTABILITY BURST HEADED FOR THE DELMARVA.

MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AT SUNRISE QUICKLY END ALONG THE
COAST, THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WITH NW WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG CAA.

MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.   LIGHT WIND.

TUESDAY...THICKENING CLOUDS.  CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE DAY?  LIGHT
SOUTH WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY MIXED WINTRY PCPN QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN I-95
SEWD BUT NW OF I-95 SNOW CHANGES TO ICE AND THEN PROBABLY RAIN.
TIMING UNCERTAIN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHIFT SW LATE. ANOTHER STRONG
INSTABILITY BURST THAT NOSES TO THE DELMARVA.

WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND MILDER. HOW MILD IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH 60 PHL SEWD?, COOLER TO
THE NORTH AND WARMTH DEPENDENT IN PART ON SOUTHWEST FLOW MIXING.
SW WIND SHIFTS TO NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING...THE CFP TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IF A WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT THEN POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A TOUCH OF SNOW?

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TURNING MUCH COLDER. NW WIND GUSTY 25-30
MPH.

FRIDAY...FAIR AND COLD.  W-NW WIND GUST 20 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 00Z TAFS ARE VFR WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. POSSIBLY SOME CIRRUS/HIGH
BASED ALTOCU FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE TO THE NORTH. FORECAST GROUP SHOWS AN AVERAGE WIND DIRECTION
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE WEIGHED MORE TO THE
EVENING, OVERALL THOUGH SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND MORE
RURAL TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER
TONIGHT. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

SATURDAY...VFR. POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY MORE CIRRUS OR HIGH BASED ALTO
CU. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AVERAGING AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CLEAR TO START WITH LIGHT
WIND THEN RAPIDLY LOWERING CIGS TO NEAR 5000 FT FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE 09Z-17Z TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW CHANGING TO ICE
KRDG/KABE/KTTN/KPNE. LIGHT WIND.

MONDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH A GUSTY NW WIND 30 TO POSSIBLY 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR CIRRUS THEN MVFR OR IFR CONDS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE
IN THE DAY CHANGING TO ICE OR RAIN AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER ANY LEFTOVER MORNING IFR OR
MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS? SW WIND SHIFTING NW.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL CANCEL THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS SEAS ARE SLOWLY
FALLING AND REMAINING BELOW FIVE FEET. THE 18Z WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE
SHOWS THIS SLOW FALL TREND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.  SEAS AND WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED.

NW GALE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS MONDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND ONE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND
EVENT IS ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 5 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN MIND
THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T CAUSE
FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR FRI/27TH AND SAT/28TH. NO RECORDS WERE SET
TODAY ALTHOUGH KACY WAS CLOSE...3 DEGREES OFF THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS ON SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27          /  FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900  NO RER  /  9 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1874 / KACY /  7 1934* NO RER  /  2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934  NO RER  / -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963  NO RER  /-10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934* NO RER  /  3 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934  NO RER  /  1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963  NO RER  /  8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993  NO RER  /-15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS (27TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND
SFT`S. WE SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO PRIOR PROJECTIONS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY
2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN
JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KGED SUNSHINE MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO WARM. A TROUBLE TICKET
IS POSTED ON THIS TEMPERATURE SENSOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GIGI
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...FRANCK/DRAG
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 272316
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
616 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST ARRIVES
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MOVES TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY.
ITS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
WITH AN ATTENDANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY FILTERS INTO OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
JUST SOME TEMPERATURE SMOOTHING WITH THIS UPDATE. FORECAST IS
ON/CLOSE TO SCHEDULE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES INCORPORATE THE GFS MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES
WHICH SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLED THE SNOWCOVER AND THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE SETS. SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OUTSIDE OF PHILADELPHIA
TONIGHT. CLIMATE SECTION HAS MORE ON THE THREAT FOR ANY RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT BUT COLD DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER 10 MPH, PERHAPS SHIFTING
TO MORE WESTERLY LATE. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ONLY SOME
HIGH CIRRUS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS HAVE BEEN
TO COOL WITH HIGHS IN RECENT SUNNY DAYS, WENT A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER WITH HIGHS DUE TO RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**WINTERY WX EVENTS SLATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AT
  LEAST IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ**

500MB: A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT MOVES
TO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY; THEN A PARTIAL PHASING OF SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
THE PLAINS STATES. THAT TROUGH MOVES TO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY WHILE A
TRAILING SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS NEXT FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

TEMPERATURES: WE`RE IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OUT THE TOP 5 OR 6
COLDEST FEBRUARY IN LONG TERM CLIMAT HISTORY DATING BACK TO THE
1870S; THE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RECORD LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING COUNTRYSIDE NEAR ATLANTIC CITY
AND MAYBE NEAR TRENTON, DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THICK CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES AT 06Z OR 9Z. A LATER ARRIVAL PERMITS A BETTER CHC OF RECORDS.
MONDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT IT COOLS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY IS
PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH POTENTIAL 50S TO
LOWER 60S I-95 SEWD AND CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THEREAFTER, THE 12Z/27 ECMWF ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN
HAS COME INTO GREATER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON ANOTHER COLD SHOT
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK, DAYTIME MAX TEMP COLD BIAS
NOTWITHSTANDING. TEMPS MAY RUN 5 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 50 50 BLEND 12Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT, 12Z/27 MEX MOS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN THE 15Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY-
NEXT FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY (CIRRUS EARLY EVENING)
WITH STRONG COUNTRYSIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE KTTN AND KACY, THEN CLOUDING UP RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNRISE.
LIGHT WIND. RECORDS DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THICK
CLOUD COVER. THE WARMER NAM TEMPS WERE NOT FACTORED INTO THIS
SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST AT ALL. GFS 2M TEMPS ARE A SIGNIFICANT
INDICATOR OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ADVISORY EVENT HIGHLY PROBABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY: PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MIDDAY OR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PHL SEWD A TINY BIT OF SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH WIND. MEANWHILE SNOW ACCUMULATES
NW OF I-95 AND WHILE WE JUST DON`T KNOW HOW MUCH (2 TO 6"--HEAVIEST
SOMEWHERE N OF I-78), WE DO SEE THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUBFREEZING
FOR QUITE A BIT OF TIME SO THAT EVEN IF A WARM ABOVE FREEZING NOSE
POKES NORTHWARD, WE ARE THEN LOOKING AT ICE. LIGHT WIND.

MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLY 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS CONCERN THAT THIS EVENT WILL END UP MOSTLY SNOW AND LESS
FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...SE OF I95 WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF NON FREEZING RAIN AFTER 08Z MONDAY.

ONE CAUSE OF THE PCPN IS AN INSTABILITY BURST HEADED FOR THE DELMARVA.

MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AT SUNRISE QUICKLY END ALONG THE
COAST, THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WITH NW WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG CAA.

MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.   LIGHT WIND.

TUESDAY...THICKENING CLOUDS.  CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE DAY?  LIGHT
SOUTH WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY MIXED WINTRY PCPN QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN I-95
SEWD BUT NW OF I-95 SNOW CHANGES TO ICE AND THEN PROBABLY RAIN.
TIMING UNCERTAIN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHIFT SW LATE. ANOTHER STRONG
INSTABILITY BURST THAT NOSES TO THE DELMARVA.

WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND MILDER. HOW MILD IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH 60 PHL SEWD?, COOLER TO
THE NORTH AND WARMTH DEPENDENT IN PART ON SOUTHWEST FLOW MIXING.
SW WIND SHIFTS TO NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING...THE CFP TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IF A WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT THEN POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A TOUCH OF SNOW?

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TURNING MUCH COLDER. NW WIND GUSTY 25-30
MPH.

FRIDAY...FAIR AND COLD.  W-NW WIND GUST 20 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 00Z TAFS ARE VFR WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. POSSIBLY SOME CIRRUS/HIGH
BASED ALTOCU FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE TO THE NORTH. FORECAST GROUP SHOWS AN AVERAGE WIND DIRECTION
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE WEIGHED MORE TO THE
EVENING, OVERALL THOUGH SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND MORE
RURAL TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER
TONIGHT. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

SATURDAY...VFR. POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY MORE CIRRUS OR HIGH BASED ALTO
CU. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AVERAGING AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CLEAR TO START WITH LIGHT
WIND THEN RAPIDLY LOWERING CIGS TO NEAR 5000 FT FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE 09Z-17Z TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW CHANGING TO ICE
KRDG/KABE/KTTN/KPNE. LIGHT WIND.

MONDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH A GUSTY NW WIND 30 TO POSSIBLY 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR CIRRUS THEN MVFR OR IFR CONDS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE
IN THE DAY CHANGING TO ICE OR RAIN AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER ANY LEFTOVER MORNING IFR OR
MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS? SW WIND SHIFTING NW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AS SEAS CONTINUE
TO LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

SEAS HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND FIVE FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
GET LOWER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO QUICK
TO LOWER THE SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.OUTLOOK...

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED.

NW GALE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS MONDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND ONE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND
EVENT IS ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 5 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN MIND
THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T CAUSE
FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR FRI/27TH AND SAT/28TH. NO RECORDS WERE SET
TODAY ALTHOUGH KACY WAS CLOSE...3 DEGREES OFF THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS ON SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27          /  FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900  NO RER  /  9 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1874 / KACY /  7 1934* NO RER  /  2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934  NO RER  / -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963  NO RER  /-10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934* NO RER  /  3 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934  NO RER  /  1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963  NO RER  /  8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993  NO RER  /-15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS (27TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND
SFT`S. WE SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO PRIOR PROJECTIONS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY
2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN
JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KGED SUNSHINE MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO WARM. A TROUBLE TICKET
IS POSTED ON THIS TEMPERATURE SENSOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...DRAG/FRANCK
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 272316
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
616 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST ARRIVES
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MOVES TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY.
ITS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
WITH AN ATTENDANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY FILTERS INTO OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
JUST SOME TEMPERATURE SMOOTHING WITH THIS UPDATE. FORECAST IS
ON/CLOSE TO SCHEDULE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES INCORPORATE THE GFS MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES
WHICH SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLED THE SNOWCOVER AND THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE SETS. SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OUTSIDE OF PHILADELPHIA
TONIGHT. CLIMATE SECTION HAS MORE ON THE THREAT FOR ANY RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT BUT COLD DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER 10 MPH, PERHAPS SHIFTING
TO MORE WESTERLY LATE. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ONLY SOME
HIGH CIRRUS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS HAVE BEEN
TO COOL WITH HIGHS IN RECENT SUNNY DAYS, WENT A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER WITH HIGHS DUE TO RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**WINTERY WX EVENTS SLATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AT
  LEAST IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ**

500MB: A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT MOVES
TO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY; THEN A PARTIAL PHASING OF SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
THE PLAINS STATES. THAT TROUGH MOVES TO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY WHILE A
TRAILING SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS NEXT FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

TEMPERATURES: WE`RE IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OUT THE TOP 5 OR 6
COLDEST FEBRUARY IN LONG TERM CLIMAT HISTORY DATING BACK TO THE
1870S; THE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RECORD LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING COUNTRYSIDE NEAR ATLANTIC CITY
AND MAYBE NEAR TRENTON, DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THICK CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES AT 06Z OR 9Z. A LATER ARRIVAL PERMITS A BETTER CHC OF RECORDS.
MONDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT IT COOLS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY IS
PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH POTENTIAL 50S TO
LOWER 60S I-95 SEWD AND CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THEREAFTER, THE 12Z/27 ECMWF ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN
HAS COME INTO GREATER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON ANOTHER COLD SHOT
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK, DAYTIME MAX TEMP COLD BIAS
NOTWITHSTANDING. TEMPS MAY RUN 5 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 50 50 BLEND 12Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT, 12Z/27 MEX MOS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN THE 15Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY-
NEXT FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY (CIRRUS EARLY EVENING)
WITH STRONG COUNTRYSIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE KTTN AND KACY, THEN CLOUDING UP RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNRISE.
LIGHT WIND. RECORDS DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THICK
CLOUD COVER. THE WARMER NAM TEMPS WERE NOT FACTORED INTO THIS
SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST AT ALL. GFS 2M TEMPS ARE A SIGNIFICANT
INDICATOR OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ADVISORY EVENT HIGHLY PROBABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY: PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MIDDAY OR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PHL SEWD A TINY BIT OF SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH WIND. MEANWHILE SNOW ACCUMULATES
NW OF I-95 AND WHILE WE JUST DON`T KNOW HOW MUCH (2 TO 6"--HEAVIEST
SOMEWHERE N OF I-78), WE DO SEE THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUBFREEZING
FOR QUITE A BIT OF TIME SO THAT EVEN IF A WARM ABOVE FREEZING NOSE
POKES NORTHWARD, WE ARE THEN LOOKING AT ICE. LIGHT WIND.

MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLY 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS CONCERN THAT THIS EVENT WILL END UP MOSTLY SNOW AND LESS
FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...SE OF I95 WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF NON FREEZING RAIN AFTER 08Z MONDAY.

ONE CAUSE OF THE PCPN IS AN INSTABILITY BURST HEADED FOR THE DELMARVA.

MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AT SUNRISE QUICKLY END ALONG THE
COAST, THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WITH NW WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG CAA.

MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.   LIGHT WIND.

TUESDAY...THICKENING CLOUDS.  CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE DAY?  LIGHT
SOUTH WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY MIXED WINTRY PCPN QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN I-95
SEWD BUT NW OF I-95 SNOW CHANGES TO ICE AND THEN PROBABLY RAIN.
TIMING UNCERTAIN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHIFT SW LATE. ANOTHER STRONG
INSTABILITY BURST THAT NOSES TO THE DELMARVA.

WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND MILDER. HOW MILD IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH 60 PHL SEWD?, COOLER TO
THE NORTH AND WARMTH DEPENDENT IN PART ON SOUTHWEST FLOW MIXING.
SW WIND SHIFTS TO NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING...THE CFP TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IF A WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT THEN POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A TOUCH OF SNOW?

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TURNING MUCH COLDER. NW WIND GUSTY 25-30
MPH.

FRIDAY...FAIR AND COLD.  W-NW WIND GUST 20 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 00Z TAFS ARE VFR WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. POSSIBLY SOME CIRRUS/HIGH
BASED ALTOCU FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE TO THE NORTH. FORECAST GROUP SHOWS AN AVERAGE WIND DIRECTION
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE WEIGHED MORE TO THE
EVENING, OVERALL THOUGH SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND MORE
RURAL TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER
TONIGHT. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

SATURDAY...VFR. POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY MORE CIRRUS OR HIGH BASED ALTO
CU. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AVERAGING AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CLEAR TO START WITH LIGHT
WIND THEN RAPIDLY LOWERING CIGS TO NEAR 5000 FT FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE 09Z-17Z TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW CHANGING TO ICE
KRDG/KABE/KTTN/KPNE. LIGHT WIND.

MONDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH A GUSTY NW WIND 30 TO POSSIBLY 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR CIRRUS THEN MVFR OR IFR CONDS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE
IN THE DAY CHANGING TO ICE OR RAIN AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER ANY LEFTOVER MORNING IFR OR
MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS? SW WIND SHIFTING NW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AS SEAS CONTINUE
TO LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

SEAS HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND FIVE FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
GET LOWER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO QUICK
TO LOWER THE SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.OUTLOOK...

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED.

NW GALE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS MONDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND ONE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND
EVENT IS ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 5 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN MIND
THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T CAUSE
FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR FRI/27TH AND SAT/28TH. NO RECORDS WERE SET
TODAY ALTHOUGH KACY WAS CLOSE...3 DEGREES OFF THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS ON SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27          /  FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900  NO RER  /  9 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1874 / KACY /  7 1934* NO RER  /  2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934  NO RER  / -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963  NO RER  /-10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934* NO RER  /  3 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934  NO RER  /  1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963  NO RER  /  8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993  NO RER  /-15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS (27TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND
SFT`S. WE SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO PRIOR PROJECTIONS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY
2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN
JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KGED SUNSHINE MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO WARM. A TROUBLE TICKET
IS POSTED ON THIS TEMPERATURE SENSOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...DRAG/FRANCK
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 272316
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
616 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST ARRIVES
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MOVES TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY.
ITS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
WITH AN ATTENDANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY FILTERS INTO OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
JUST SOME TEMPERATURE SMOOTHING WITH THIS UPDATE. FORECAST IS
ON/CLOSE TO SCHEDULE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES INCORPORATE THE GFS MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES
WHICH SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLED THE SNOWCOVER AND THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE SETS. SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OUTSIDE OF PHILADELPHIA
TONIGHT. CLIMATE SECTION HAS MORE ON THE THREAT FOR ANY RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT BUT COLD DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER 10 MPH, PERHAPS SHIFTING
TO MORE WESTERLY LATE. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ONLY SOME
HIGH CIRRUS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS HAVE BEEN
TO COOL WITH HIGHS IN RECENT SUNNY DAYS, WENT A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER WITH HIGHS DUE TO RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**WINTERY WX EVENTS SLATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AT
  LEAST IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ**

500MB: A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT MOVES
TO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY; THEN A PARTIAL PHASING OF SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
THE PLAINS STATES. THAT TROUGH MOVES TO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY WHILE A
TRAILING SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS NEXT FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

TEMPERATURES: WE`RE IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OUT THE TOP 5 OR 6
COLDEST FEBRUARY IN LONG TERM CLIMAT HISTORY DATING BACK TO THE
1870S; THE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RECORD LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING COUNTRYSIDE NEAR ATLANTIC CITY
AND MAYBE NEAR TRENTON, DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THICK CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES AT 06Z OR 9Z. A LATER ARRIVAL PERMITS A BETTER CHC OF RECORDS.
MONDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT IT COOLS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY IS
PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH POTENTIAL 50S TO
LOWER 60S I-95 SEWD AND CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THEREAFTER, THE 12Z/27 ECMWF ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN
HAS COME INTO GREATER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON ANOTHER COLD SHOT
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK, DAYTIME MAX TEMP COLD BIAS
NOTWITHSTANDING. TEMPS MAY RUN 5 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 50 50 BLEND 12Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT, 12Z/27 MEX MOS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN THE 15Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY-
NEXT FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY (CIRRUS EARLY EVENING)
WITH STRONG COUNTRYSIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE KTTN AND KACY, THEN CLOUDING UP RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNRISE.
LIGHT WIND. RECORDS DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THICK
CLOUD COVER. THE WARMER NAM TEMPS WERE NOT FACTORED INTO THIS
SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST AT ALL. GFS 2M TEMPS ARE A SIGNIFICANT
INDICATOR OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ADVISORY EVENT HIGHLY PROBABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY: PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MIDDAY OR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PHL SEWD A TINY BIT OF SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH WIND. MEANWHILE SNOW ACCUMULATES
NW OF I-95 AND WHILE WE JUST DON`T KNOW HOW MUCH (2 TO 6"--HEAVIEST
SOMEWHERE N OF I-78), WE DO SEE THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUBFREEZING
FOR QUITE A BIT OF TIME SO THAT EVEN IF A WARM ABOVE FREEZING NOSE
POKES NORTHWARD, WE ARE THEN LOOKING AT ICE. LIGHT WIND.

MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLY 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS CONCERN THAT THIS EVENT WILL END UP MOSTLY SNOW AND LESS
FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...SE OF I95 WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF NON FREEZING RAIN AFTER 08Z MONDAY.

ONE CAUSE OF THE PCPN IS AN INSTABILITY BURST HEADED FOR THE DELMARVA.

MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AT SUNRISE QUICKLY END ALONG THE
COAST, THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WITH NW WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG CAA.

MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.   LIGHT WIND.

TUESDAY...THICKENING CLOUDS.  CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE DAY?  LIGHT
SOUTH WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY MIXED WINTRY PCPN QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN I-95
SEWD BUT NW OF I-95 SNOW CHANGES TO ICE AND THEN PROBABLY RAIN.
TIMING UNCERTAIN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHIFT SW LATE. ANOTHER STRONG
INSTABILITY BURST THAT NOSES TO THE DELMARVA.

WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND MILDER. HOW MILD IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH 60 PHL SEWD?, COOLER TO
THE NORTH AND WARMTH DEPENDENT IN PART ON SOUTHWEST FLOW MIXING.
SW WIND SHIFTS TO NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING...THE CFP TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IF A WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT THEN POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A TOUCH OF SNOW?

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TURNING MUCH COLDER. NW WIND GUSTY 25-30
MPH.

FRIDAY...FAIR AND COLD.  W-NW WIND GUST 20 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 00Z TAFS ARE VFR WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES.

FOR TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. POSSIBLY SOME CIRRUS/HIGH
BASED ALTOCU FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER
MORE TO THE NORTH. FORECAST GROUP SHOWS AN AVERAGE WIND DIRECTION
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE WEIGHED MORE TO THE
EVENING, OVERALL THOUGH SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND MORE
RURAL TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER
TONIGHT. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

SATURDAY...VFR. POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY MORE CIRRUS OR HIGH BASED ALTO
CU. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AVERAGING AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CLEAR TO START WITH LIGHT
WIND THEN RAPIDLY LOWERING CIGS TO NEAR 5000 FT FROM WEST TO EAST
IN THE 09Z-17Z TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW CHANGING TO ICE
KRDG/KABE/KTTN/KPNE. LIGHT WIND.

MONDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH A GUSTY NW WIND 30 TO POSSIBLY 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR CIRRUS THEN MVFR OR IFR CONDS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE
IN THE DAY CHANGING TO ICE OR RAIN AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER ANY LEFTOVER MORNING IFR OR
MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS? SW WIND SHIFTING NW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AS SEAS CONTINUE
TO LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

SEAS HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND FIVE FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
GET LOWER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO QUICK
TO LOWER THE SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.OUTLOOK...

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED.

NW GALE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS MONDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND ONE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND
EVENT IS ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 5 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN MIND
THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T CAUSE
FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR FRI/27TH AND SAT/28TH. NO RECORDS WERE SET
TODAY ALTHOUGH KACY WAS CLOSE...3 DEGREES OFF THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS ON SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27          /  FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900  NO RER  /  9 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1874 / KACY /  7 1934* NO RER  /  2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934  NO RER  / -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963  NO RER  /-10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934* NO RER  /  3 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934  NO RER  /  1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963  NO RER  /  8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993  NO RER  /-15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS (27TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND
SFT`S. WE SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO PRIOR PROJECTIONS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY
2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN
JANUARY.

THE FOLLOWING IS FOR ANY METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH, NOT JUST
JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KGED SUNSHINE MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO WARM. A TROUBLE TICKET
IS POSTED ON THIS TEMPERATURE SENSOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...DRAG/FRANCK
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 272238
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
538 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST ARRIVES
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MOVES TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY.
ITS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
WITH AN ATTENDANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY FILTERS INTO OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES INCORPORATE THE GFS MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES
WHICH SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLED THE SNOWCOVER AND THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE SETS. SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OUTSIDE OF PHILADELPHIA
TONIGHT. CLIMATE SECTION HAS MORE ON THE THREAT FOR ANY RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT BUT COLD DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER 10 MPH, PERHAPS SHIFTING
TO MORE WESTERLY LATE. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ONLY SOME
HIGH CIRRUS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS HAVE BEEN
TO COOL WITH HIGHS IN RECENT SUNNY DAYS, WENT A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER WITH HIGHS DUE TO RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**WINTERY WX EVENTS SLATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AT
  LEAST IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ**

500MB: A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT MOVES
TO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY; THEN A PARTIAL PHASING OF SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
THE PLAINS STATES. THAT TROUGH MOVES TO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY WHILE A
TRAILING SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS NEXT FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

TEMPERATURES: WE`RE IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OUT THE TOP 5 OR 6
COLDEST FEBRUARY IN LONG TERM CLIMAT HISTORY DATING BACK TO THE
1870S; THE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RECORD LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING COUNTRYSIDE NEAR ATLANTIC CITY
AND MAYBE NEAR TRENTON, DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THICK CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES AT 06Z OR 9Z. A LATER ARRIVAL PERMITS A BETTER CHC OF RECORDS.
MONDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT IT COOLS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY IS
PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH POTENTIAL 50S TO
LOWER 60S I-95 SEWD AND CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THEREAFTER, THE 12Z/27 ECMWF ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN
HAS COME INTO GREATER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON ANOTHER COLD SHOT
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK, DAYTIME MAX TEMP COLD BIAS
NOTWITHSTANDING. TEMPS MAY RUN 5 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 50 50 BLEND 12Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT, 12Z/27 MEX MOS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN THE 15Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY-
NEXT FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY (CIRRUS EARLY EVENING)
WITH STRONG COUNTRYSIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE KTTN AND KACY, THEN CLOUDING UP RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNRISE.
LIGHT WIND. RECORDS DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THICK
CLOUD COVER. THE WARMER NAM TEMPS WERE NOT FACTORED INTO THIS
SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST AT ALL. GFS 2M TEMPS ARE A SIGNIFICANT
INDICATOR OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ADVISORY EVENT HIGHLY PROBABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY: PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MIDDAY OR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PHL SEWD A TINY BIT OF SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH WIND. MEANWHILE SNOW ACCUMULATES
NW OF I-95 AND WHILE WE JUST DON`T KNOW HOW MUCH (2 TO 6"--HEAVIEST
SOMEWHERE N OF I-78), WE DO SEE THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUBFREEZING
FOR QUITE A BIT OF TIME SO THAT EVEN IF A WARM ABOVE FREEZING NOSE
POKES NORTHWARD, WE ARE THEN LOOKING AT ICE. LIGHT WIND.

MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLY 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS CONCERN THAT THIS EVENT WILL END UP MOSTLY SNOW AND LESS
FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...SE OF I95 WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF NON FREEZING RAIN AFTER 08Z MONDAY.

ONE CAUSE OF THE PCPN IS AN INSTABILITY BURST HEADED FOR THE DELMARVA.


MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AT SUNRISE QUICKLY END ALONG THE
COAST, THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WITH NW WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG CAA.

MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.   LIGHT WIND.

TUESDAY...THICKENING CLOUDS.  CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE DAY?  LIGHT
SOUTH WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY MIXED WINTRY PCPN QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN I-95
SEWD BUT NW OF I-95 SNOW CHANGES TO ICE AND THEN PROBABLY RAIN.
TIMING UNCERTAIN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHIFT SW LATE. ANOTHER STRONG
INSTABILITY BURST THAT NOSES TO THE DELMARVA.

WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND MILDER. HOW MILD IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH 60 PHL SEWD?, COOLER TO
THE NORTH AND WARMTH DEPENDENT IN PART ON SOUTHWEST FLOW MIXING.
SW WIND SHIFTS TO NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING...THE CFP TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IF A WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT THEN POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A TOUCH OF SNOW?

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TURNING MUCH COLDER. NW WIND GUSTY 25-30
MPH.

FRIDAY...FAIR AND COLD.  W-NW WIND GUST 20 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS
EVENING  AROUND 5,000 FEET SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY. CIRRUS ABOVE
10,000 FEET SHOULD MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM 320-
350 DEGREES AS WELL, TOP WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS BEFORE 23Z. WIND COULD SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWERING CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CLEAR TO START WITH LIGHT WIND
THEN RAPIDLY LOWERING CIGS TO NEAR 5000 FT FROM WEST TO EAST IN
THE 09Z-17Z TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW CHANGING TO ICE
KRDG/KABE/KTTN/KPNE. LIGHT WIND.

MONDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH A GUSTY NW WIND 30 TO POSSIBLY 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR CIRRUS THEN MVFR OR IFR CONDS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE
IN THE DAY CHANGING TO ICE OR RAIN AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER ANY LEFTOVER MORNING IFR OR
MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS? SW WIND SHIFTING NW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AS SEAS CONTINUE
TO LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

SEAS HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND FIVE FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
GET LOWER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO QUICK
TO LOWER THE SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.OUTLOOK...

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED.

NW GALE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS MONDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND ONE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND
EVENT IS ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 5 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN MIND
THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T CAUSE
FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR FRI/27TH AND SAT/28TH. NO RECORDS WERE SET
TODAY ALTHOUGH KACY WAS CLOSE...3 DEGREES OFF THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS ON SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27          /  FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900  NO RER  /  9 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1874 / KACY /  7 1934* NO RER  /  2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934  NO RER  / -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963  NO RER  /-10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934* NO RER  /  3 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934  NO RER  /  1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963  NO RER  /  8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993  NO RER  /-15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS (27TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND
SFT`S. WE SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO PRIOR PROJECTIONS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY
2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN
JANUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KGED SUNSHINE MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO WARM. A TROUBLE TICKET
IS POSTED ON THIS TEMPERATURE SENSOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 272238
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
538 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST ARRIVES
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MOVES TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY.
ITS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
WITH AN ATTENDANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY FILTERS INTO OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES INCORPORATE THE GFS MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES
WHICH SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLED THE SNOWCOVER AND THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE SETS. SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OUTSIDE OF PHILADELPHIA
TONIGHT. CLIMATE SECTION HAS MORE ON THE THREAT FOR ANY RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT BUT COLD DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER 10 MPH, PERHAPS SHIFTING
TO MORE WESTERLY LATE. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ONLY SOME
HIGH CIRRUS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS HAVE BEEN
TO COOL WITH HIGHS IN RECENT SUNNY DAYS, WENT A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER WITH HIGHS DUE TO RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**WINTERY WX EVENTS SLATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AT
  LEAST IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ**

500MB: A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT MOVES
TO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY; THEN A PARTIAL PHASING OF SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
THE PLAINS STATES. THAT TROUGH MOVES TO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY WHILE A
TRAILING SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS NEXT FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

TEMPERATURES: WE`RE IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OUT THE TOP 5 OR 6
COLDEST FEBRUARY IN LONG TERM CLIMAT HISTORY DATING BACK TO THE
1870S; THE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RECORD LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING COUNTRYSIDE NEAR ATLANTIC CITY
AND MAYBE NEAR TRENTON, DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THICK CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES AT 06Z OR 9Z. A LATER ARRIVAL PERMITS A BETTER CHC OF RECORDS.
MONDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT IT COOLS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY IS
PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH POTENTIAL 50S TO
LOWER 60S I-95 SEWD AND CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THEREAFTER, THE 12Z/27 ECMWF ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN
HAS COME INTO GREATER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON ANOTHER COLD SHOT
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK, DAYTIME MAX TEMP COLD BIAS
NOTWITHSTANDING. TEMPS MAY RUN 5 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 50 50 BLEND 12Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT, 12Z/27 MEX MOS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN THE 15Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY-
NEXT FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY (CIRRUS EARLY EVENING)
WITH STRONG COUNTRYSIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE KTTN AND KACY, THEN CLOUDING UP RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNRISE.
LIGHT WIND. RECORDS DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THICK
CLOUD COVER. THE WARMER NAM TEMPS WERE NOT FACTORED INTO THIS
SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST AT ALL. GFS 2M TEMPS ARE A SIGNIFICANT
INDICATOR OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ADVISORY EVENT HIGHLY PROBABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY: PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MIDDAY OR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PHL SEWD A TINY BIT OF SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH WIND. MEANWHILE SNOW ACCUMULATES
NW OF I-95 AND WHILE WE JUST DON`T KNOW HOW MUCH (2 TO 6"--HEAVIEST
SOMEWHERE N OF I-78), WE DO SEE THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUBFREEZING
FOR QUITE A BIT OF TIME SO THAT EVEN IF A WARM ABOVE FREEZING NOSE
POKES NORTHWARD, WE ARE THEN LOOKING AT ICE. LIGHT WIND.

MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLY 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS CONCERN THAT THIS EVENT WILL END UP MOSTLY SNOW AND LESS
FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...SE OF I95 WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF NON FREEZING RAIN AFTER 08Z MONDAY.

ONE CAUSE OF THE PCPN IS AN INSTABILITY BURST HEADED FOR THE DELMARVA.


MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AT SUNRISE QUICKLY END ALONG THE
COAST, THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WITH NW WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG CAA.

MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.   LIGHT WIND.

TUESDAY...THICKENING CLOUDS.  CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE DAY?  LIGHT
SOUTH WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY MIXED WINTRY PCPN QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN I-95
SEWD BUT NW OF I-95 SNOW CHANGES TO ICE AND THEN PROBABLY RAIN.
TIMING UNCERTAIN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHIFT SW LATE. ANOTHER STRONG
INSTABILITY BURST THAT NOSES TO THE DELMARVA.

WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND MILDER. HOW MILD IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH 60 PHL SEWD?, COOLER TO
THE NORTH AND WARMTH DEPENDENT IN PART ON SOUTHWEST FLOW MIXING.
SW WIND SHIFTS TO NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING...THE CFP TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IF A WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT THEN POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A TOUCH OF SNOW?

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TURNING MUCH COLDER. NW WIND GUSTY 25-30
MPH.

FRIDAY...FAIR AND COLD.  W-NW WIND GUST 20 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS
EVENING  AROUND 5,000 FEET SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY. CIRRUS ABOVE
10,000 FEET SHOULD MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM 320-
350 DEGREES AS WELL, TOP WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS BEFORE 23Z. WIND COULD SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWERING CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CLEAR TO START WITH LIGHT WIND
THEN RAPIDLY LOWERING CIGS TO NEAR 5000 FT FROM WEST TO EAST IN
THE 09Z-17Z TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW CHANGING TO ICE
KRDG/KABE/KTTN/KPNE. LIGHT WIND.

MONDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH A GUSTY NW WIND 30 TO POSSIBLY 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR CIRRUS THEN MVFR OR IFR CONDS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE
IN THE DAY CHANGING TO ICE OR RAIN AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER ANY LEFTOVER MORNING IFR OR
MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS? SW WIND SHIFTING NW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AS SEAS CONTINUE
TO LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

SEAS HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND FIVE FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
GET LOWER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO QUICK
TO LOWER THE SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.OUTLOOK...

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED.

NW GALE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS MONDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND ONE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND
EVENT IS ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 5 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN MIND
THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T CAUSE
FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR FRI/27TH AND SAT/28TH. NO RECORDS WERE SET
TODAY ALTHOUGH KACY WAS CLOSE...3 DEGREES OFF THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS ON SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27          /  FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900  NO RER  /  9 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1874 / KACY /  7 1934* NO RER  /  2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934  NO RER  / -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963  NO RER  /-10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934* NO RER  /  3 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934  NO RER  /  1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963  NO RER  /  8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993  NO RER  /-15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS (27TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND
SFT`S. WE SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO PRIOR PROJECTIONS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY
2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN
JANUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KGED SUNSHINE MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO WARM. A TROUBLE TICKET
IS POSTED ON THIS TEMPERATURE SENSOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 272238
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
538 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST ARRIVES
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MOVES TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY.
ITS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
WITH AN ATTENDANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY FILTERS INTO OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES INCORPORATE THE GFS MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES
WHICH SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLED THE SNOWCOVER AND THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE SETS. SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OUTSIDE OF PHILADELPHIA
TONIGHT. CLIMATE SECTION HAS MORE ON THE THREAT FOR ANY RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT BUT COLD DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER 10 MPH, PERHAPS SHIFTING
TO MORE WESTERLY LATE. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ONLY SOME
HIGH CIRRUS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS HAVE BEEN
TO COOL WITH HIGHS IN RECENT SUNNY DAYS, WENT A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER WITH HIGHS DUE TO RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**WINTERY WX EVENTS SLATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AT
  LEAST IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ**

500MB: A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT MOVES
TO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY; THEN A PARTIAL PHASING OF SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
THE PLAINS STATES. THAT TROUGH MOVES TO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY WHILE A
TRAILING SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS NEXT FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

TEMPERATURES: WE`RE IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OUT THE TOP 5 OR 6
COLDEST FEBRUARY IN LONG TERM CLIMAT HISTORY DATING BACK TO THE
1870S; THE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RECORD LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING COUNTRYSIDE NEAR ATLANTIC CITY
AND MAYBE NEAR TRENTON, DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THICK CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES AT 06Z OR 9Z. A LATER ARRIVAL PERMITS A BETTER CHC OF RECORDS.
MONDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT IT COOLS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY IS
PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH POTENTIAL 50S TO
LOWER 60S I-95 SEWD AND CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THEREAFTER, THE 12Z/27 ECMWF ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN
HAS COME INTO GREATER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON ANOTHER COLD SHOT
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK, DAYTIME MAX TEMP COLD BIAS
NOTWITHSTANDING. TEMPS MAY RUN 5 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 50 50 BLEND 12Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT, 12Z/27 MEX MOS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN THE 15Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY-
NEXT FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY (CIRRUS EARLY EVENING)
WITH STRONG COUNTRYSIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE KTTN AND KACY, THEN CLOUDING UP RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNRISE.
LIGHT WIND. RECORDS DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THICK
CLOUD COVER. THE WARMER NAM TEMPS WERE NOT FACTORED INTO THIS
SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST AT ALL. GFS 2M TEMPS ARE A SIGNIFICANT
INDICATOR OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ADVISORY EVENT HIGHLY PROBABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY: PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MIDDAY OR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PHL SEWD A TINY BIT OF SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH WIND. MEANWHILE SNOW ACCUMULATES
NW OF I-95 AND WHILE WE JUST DON`T KNOW HOW MUCH (2 TO 6"--HEAVIEST
SOMEWHERE N OF I-78), WE DO SEE THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUBFREEZING
FOR QUITE A BIT OF TIME SO THAT EVEN IF A WARM ABOVE FREEZING NOSE
POKES NORTHWARD, WE ARE THEN LOOKING AT ICE. LIGHT WIND.

MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLY 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS CONCERN THAT THIS EVENT WILL END UP MOSTLY SNOW AND LESS
FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...SE OF I95 WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF NON FREEZING RAIN AFTER 08Z MONDAY.

ONE CAUSE OF THE PCPN IS AN INSTABILITY BURST HEADED FOR THE DELMARVA.


MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AT SUNRISE QUICKLY END ALONG THE
COAST, THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WITH NW WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG CAA.

MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.   LIGHT WIND.

TUESDAY...THICKENING CLOUDS.  CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE DAY?  LIGHT
SOUTH WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY MIXED WINTRY PCPN QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN I-95
SEWD BUT NW OF I-95 SNOW CHANGES TO ICE AND THEN PROBABLY RAIN.
TIMING UNCERTAIN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHIFT SW LATE. ANOTHER STRONG
INSTABILITY BURST THAT NOSES TO THE DELMARVA.

WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND MILDER. HOW MILD IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH 60 PHL SEWD?, COOLER TO
THE NORTH AND WARMTH DEPENDENT IN PART ON SOUTHWEST FLOW MIXING.
SW WIND SHIFTS TO NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING...THE CFP TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IF A WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT THEN POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A TOUCH OF SNOW?

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TURNING MUCH COLDER. NW WIND GUSTY 25-30
MPH.

FRIDAY...FAIR AND COLD.  W-NW WIND GUST 20 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS
EVENING  AROUND 5,000 FEET SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY. CIRRUS ABOVE
10,000 FEET SHOULD MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM 320-
350 DEGREES AS WELL, TOP WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS BEFORE 23Z. WIND COULD SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWERING CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CLEAR TO START WITH LIGHT WIND
THEN RAPIDLY LOWERING CIGS TO NEAR 5000 FT FROM WEST TO EAST IN
THE 09Z-17Z TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW CHANGING TO ICE
KRDG/KABE/KTTN/KPNE. LIGHT WIND.

MONDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH A GUSTY NW WIND 30 TO POSSIBLY 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR CIRRUS THEN MVFR OR IFR CONDS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE
IN THE DAY CHANGING TO ICE OR RAIN AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER ANY LEFTOVER MORNING IFR OR
MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS? SW WIND SHIFTING NW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AS SEAS CONTINUE
TO LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

SEAS HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND FIVE FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
GET LOWER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO QUICK
TO LOWER THE SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.OUTLOOK...

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED.

NW GALE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS MONDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND ONE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND
EVENT IS ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 5 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN MIND
THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T CAUSE
FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR FRI/27TH AND SAT/28TH. NO RECORDS WERE SET
TODAY ALTHOUGH KACY WAS CLOSE...3 DEGREES OFF THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS ON SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27          /  FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900  NO RER  /  9 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1874 / KACY /  7 1934* NO RER  /  2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934  NO RER  / -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963  NO RER  /-10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934* NO RER  /  3 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934  NO RER  /  1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963  NO RER  /  8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993  NO RER  /-15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS (27TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND
SFT`S. WE SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO PRIOR PROJECTIONS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY
2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN
JANUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KGED SUNSHINE MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO WARM. A TROUBLE TICKET
IS POSTED ON THIS TEMPERATURE SENSOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 272238
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
538 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST ARRIVES
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MOVES TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY.
ITS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
WITH AN ATTENDANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY FILTERS INTO OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES INCORPORATE THE GFS MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES
WHICH SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLED THE SNOWCOVER AND THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE SETS. SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OUTSIDE OF PHILADELPHIA
TONIGHT. CLIMATE SECTION HAS MORE ON THE THREAT FOR ANY RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT BUT COLD DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER 10 MPH, PERHAPS SHIFTING
TO MORE WESTERLY LATE. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ONLY SOME
HIGH CIRRUS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS HAVE BEEN
TO COOL WITH HIGHS IN RECENT SUNNY DAYS, WENT A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER WITH HIGHS DUE TO RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**WINTERY WX EVENTS SLATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AT
  LEAST IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ**

500MB: A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT MOVES
TO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY; THEN A PARTIAL PHASING OF SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
THE PLAINS STATES. THAT TROUGH MOVES TO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY WHILE A
TRAILING SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS NEXT FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

TEMPERATURES: WE`RE IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OUT THE TOP 5 OR 6
COLDEST FEBRUARY IN LONG TERM CLIMAT HISTORY DATING BACK TO THE
1870S; THE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RECORD LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING COUNTRYSIDE NEAR ATLANTIC CITY
AND MAYBE NEAR TRENTON, DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THICK CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES AT 06Z OR 9Z. A LATER ARRIVAL PERMITS A BETTER CHC OF RECORDS.
MONDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT IT COOLS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY IS
PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH POTENTIAL 50S TO
LOWER 60S I-95 SEWD AND CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THEREAFTER, THE 12Z/27 ECMWF ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN
HAS COME INTO GREATER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON ANOTHER COLD SHOT
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK, DAYTIME MAX TEMP COLD BIAS
NOTWITHSTANDING. TEMPS MAY RUN 5 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 50 50 BLEND 12Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT, 12Z/27 MEX MOS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN THE 15Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY-
NEXT FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY (CIRRUS EARLY EVENING)
WITH STRONG COUNTRYSIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE KTTN AND KACY, THEN CLOUDING UP RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNRISE.
LIGHT WIND. RECORDS DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THICK
CLOUD COVER. THE WARMER NAM TEMPS WERE NOT FACTORED INTO THIS
SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST AT ALL. GFS 2M TEMPS ARE A SIGNIFICANT
INDICATOR OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ADVISORY EVENT HIGHLY PROBABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY: PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MIDDAY OR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PHL SEWD A TINY BIT OF SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH WIND. MEANWHILE SNOW ACCUMULATES
NW OF I-95 AND WHILE WE JUST DON`T KNOW HOW MUCH (2 TO 6"--HEAVIEST
SOMEWHERE N OF I-78), WE DO SEE THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUBFREEZING
FOR QUITE A BIT OF TIME SO THAT EVEN IF A WARM ABOVE FREEZING NOSE
POKES NORTHWARD, WE ARE THEN LOOKING AT ICE. LIGHT WIND.

MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLY 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS CONCERN THAT THIS EVENT WILL END UP MOSTLY SNOW AND LESS
FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...SE OF I95 WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF NON FREEZING RAIN AFTER 08Z MONDAY.

ONE CAUSE OF THE PCPN IS AN INSTABILITY BURST HEADED FOR THE DELMARVA.


MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AT SUNRISE QUICKLY END ALONG THE
COAST, THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WITH NW WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG CAA.

MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.   LIGHT WIND.

TUESDAY...THICKENING CLOUDS.  CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE DAY?  LIGHT
SOUTH WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY MIXED WINTRY PCPN QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN I-95
SEWD BUT NW OF I-95 SNOW CHANGES TO ICE AND THEN PROBABLY RAIN.
TIMING UNCERTAIN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHIFT SW LATE. ANOTHER STRONG
INSTABILITY BURST THAT NOSES TO THE DELMARVA.

WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND MILDER. HOW MILD IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH 60 PHL SEWD?, COOLER TO
THE NORTH AND WARMTH DEPENDENT IN PART ON SOUTHWEST FLOW MIXING.
SW WIND SHIFTS TO NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING...THE CFP TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IF A WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT THEN POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A TOUCH OF SNOW?

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TURNING MUCH COLDER. NW WIND GUSTY 25-30
MPH.

FRIDAY...FAIR AND COLD.  W-NW WIND GUST 20 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS
EVENING  AROUND 5,000 FEET SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY. CIRRUS ABOVE
10,000 FEET SHOULD MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM 320-
350 DEGREES AS WELL, TOP WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS BEFORE 23Z. WIND COULD SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWERING CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CLEAR TO START WITH LIGHT WIND
THEN RAPIDLY LOWERING CIGS TO NEAR 5000 FT FROM WEST TO EAST IN
THE 09Z-17Z TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW CHANGING TO ICE
KRDG/KABE/KTTN/KPNE. LIGHT WIND.

MONDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH A GUSTY NW WIND 30 TO POSSIBLY 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR CIRRUS THEN MVFR OR IFR CONDS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE
IN THE DAY CHANGING TO ICE OR RAIN AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER ANY LEFTOVER MORNING IFR OR
MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS? SW WIND SHIFTING NW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AS SEAS CONTINUE
TO LINGER AT AROUND 5 FEET ON THE OCEAN.

SEAS HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND FIVE FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
GET LOWER THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO QUICK
TO LOWER THE SEAS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY AROUND 10 KNOTS.OUTLOOK...

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED.

NW GALE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS MONDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND ONE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND
EVENT IS ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 5 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN MIND
THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T CAUSE
FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR FRI/27TH AND SAT/28TH. NO RECORDS WERE SET
TODAY ALTHOUGH KACY WAS CLOSE...3 DEGREES OFF THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS ON SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27          /  FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900  NO RER  /  9 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1874 / KACY /  7 1934* NO RER  /  2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934  NO RER  / -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963  NO RER  /-10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934* NO RER  /  3 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934  NO RER  /  1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963  NO RER  /  8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993  NO RER  /-15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS (27TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND
SFT`S. WE SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO PRIOR PROJECTIONS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY
2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN
JANUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KGED SUNSHINE MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO WARM. A TROUBLE TICKET
IS POSTED ON THIS TEMPERATURE SENSOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 272217
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
517 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST ARRIVES
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MOVES TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY.
ITS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
WITH AN ATTENDANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY FILTERS INTO OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES INCORPORATE THE GFS MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES
WHICH SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLED THE SNOWCOVER AND THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE SETS. SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OUTSIDE OF PHILADELPHIA
TONIGHT. CLIMATE SECTION HAS MORE ON THE THREAT FOR ANY RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT BUT COLD DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER 10 MPH, PERHAPS SHIFTING
TO MORE WESTERLY LATE. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ONLY SOME
HIGH CIRRUS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS HAVE BEEN
TO COOL WITH HIGHS IN RECENT SUNNY DAYS, WENT A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER WITH HIGHS DUE TO RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**WINTERY WX EVENTS SLATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AT
  LEAST IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ**

500MB: A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT MOVES
TO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY; THEN A PARTIAL PHASING OF SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
THE PLAINS STATES. THAT TROUGH MOVES TO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY WHILE A
TRAILING SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS NEXT FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

TEMPERATURES: WE`RE IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OUT THE TOP 5 OR 6
COLDEST FEBRUARY IN LONG TERM CLIMAT HISTORY DATING BACK TO THE
1870S; THE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RECORD LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING COUNTRYSIDE NEAR ATLANTIC CITY
AND MAYBE NEAR TRENTON, DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THICK CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES AT 06Z OR 9Z. A LATER ARRIVAL PERMITS A BETTER CHC OF RECORDS.
MONDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT IT COOLS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY IS
PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH POTENTIAL 50S TO
LOWER 60S I-95 SEWD AND CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THEREAFTER, THE 12Z/27 ECMWF ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN
HAS COME INTO GREATER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON ANOTHER COLD SHOT
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK, DAYTIME MAX TEMP COLD BIAS
NOTWITHSTANDING. TEMPS MAY RUN 5 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 50 50 BLEND 12Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT, 12Z/27 MEX MOS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN THE 15Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY-
NEXT FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY (CIRRUS EARLY EVENING)
WITH STRONG COUNTRYSIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE KTTN AND KACY, THEN CLOUDING UP RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNRISE.
LIGHT WIND. RECORDS DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THICK
CLOUD COVER. THE WARMER NAM TEMPS WERE NOT FACTORED INTO THIS
SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST AT ALL. GFS 2M TEMPS ARE A SIGNIFICANT
INDICATOR OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ADVISORY EVENT HIGHLY PROBABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY: PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MIDDAY OR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PHL SEWD A TINY BIT OF SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH WIND. MEANWHILE SNOW ACCUMULATES
NW OF I-95 AND WHILE WE JUST DON`T KNOW HOW MUCH (2 TO 6"--HEAVIEST
SOMEWHERE N OF I-78), WE DO SEE THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUBFREEZING
FOR QUITE A BIT OF TIME SO THAT EVEN IF A WARM ABOVE FREEZING NOSE
POKES NORTHWARD, WE ARE THEN LOOKING AT ICE. LIGHT WIND.

MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLY 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS CONCERN THAT THIS EVENT WILL END UP MOSTLY SNOW AND LESS
FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...SE OF I95 WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF NON FREEZING RAIN AFTER 08Z MONDAY.

ONE CAUSE OF THE PCPN IS AN INSTABILITY BURST HEADED FOR THE DELMARVA.


MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AT SUNRISE QUICKLY END ALONG THE
COAST, THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WITH NW WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG CAA.

MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.   LIGHT WIND.

TUESDAY...THICKENING CLOUDS.  CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE DAY?  LIGHT
SOUTH WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY MIXED WINTRY PCPN QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN I-95
SEWD BUT NW OF I-95 SNOW CHANGES TO ICE AND THEN PROBABLY RAIN.
TIMING UNCERTAIN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHIFT SW LATE. ANOTHER STRONG
INSTABILITY BURST THAT NOSES TO THE DELMARVA.

WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND MILDER. HOW MILD IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH 60 PHL SEWD?, COOLER TO
THE NORTH AND WARMTH DEPENDENT IN PART ON SOUTHWEST FLOW MIXING.
SW WIND SHIFTS TO NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING...THE CFP TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IF A WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT THEN POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A TOUCH OF SNOW?

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TURNING MUCH COLDER. NW WIND GUSTY 25-30
MPH.

FRIDAY...FAIR AND COLD.  W-NW WIND GUST 20 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS
EVENING  AROUND 5,000 FEET SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY. CIRRUS ABOVE
10,000 FEET SHOULD MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM 320-
350 DEGREES AS WELL, TOP WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS BEFORE 23Z. WIND COULD SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWERING CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CLEAR TO START WITH LIGHT WIND
THEN RAPIDLY LOWERING CIGS TO NEAR 5000 FT FROM WEST TO EAST IN
THE 09Z-17Z TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW CHANGING TO ICE
KRDG/KABE/KTTN/KPNE. LIGHT WIND.

MONDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH A GUSTY NW WIND 30 TO POSSIBLY 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR CIRRUS THEN MVFR OR IFR CONDS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE
IN THE DAY CHANGING TO ICE OR RAIN AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER ANY LEFTOVER MORNING IFR OR
MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS? SW WIND SHIFTING NW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED TILL 23Z ON THE OCEAN. SEAS HAVE LOWERED TO
AROUND FIVE FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GET LOWER THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO QUICK TO LOWER THE SEAS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY
AROUND 10 KNOTS.OUTLOOK...

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED.

NW GALE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS MONDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND ONE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND
EVENT IS ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 5 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN MIND
THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T CAUSE
FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR FRI/27TH AND SAT/28TH. NO RECORDS WERE SET
TODAY ALTHOUGH KACY WAS CLOSE...3 DEGREES OFF THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS ON SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27          /  FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900  NO RER  /  9 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1874 / KACY /  7 1934* NO RER  /  2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934  NO RER  / -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963  NO RER  /-10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934* NO RER  /  3 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934  NO RER  /  1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963  NO RER  /  8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993  NO RER  /-15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS (27TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND
SFT`S. WE SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO PRIOR PROJECTIONS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY
2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN
JANUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KGED SUNSHINE MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO WARM. A TROUBLE TICKET
IS POSTED ON THIS TEMPERATURE SENSOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...CORRECTED TOP 5 COLDEST FEB TABLE AT PHL AND ACY
EQUIPMENT...GAINES/DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 272217
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
517 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST ARRIVES
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MOVES TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY.
ITS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
WITH AN ATTENDANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY FILTERS INTO OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES INCORPORATE THE GFS MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES
WHICH SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLED THE SNOWCOVER AND THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE SETS. SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OUTSIDE OF PHILADELPHIA
TONIGHT. CLIMATE SECTION HAS MORE ON THE THREAT FOR ANY RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT BUT COLD DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER 10 MPH, PERHAPS SHIFTING
TO MORE WESTERLY LATE. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ONLY SOME
HIGH CIRRUS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS HAVE BEEN
TO COOL WITH HIGHS IN RECENT SUNNY DAYS, WENT A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER WITH HIGHS DUE TO RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**WINTERY WX EVENTS SLATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AT
  LEAST IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ**

500MB: A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT MOVES
TO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY; THEN A PARTIAL PHASING OF SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
THE PLAINS STATES. THAT TROUGH MOVES TO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY WHILE A
TRAILING SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS NEXT FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

TEMPERATURES: WE`RE IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OUT THE TOP 5 OR 6
COLDEST FEBRUARY IN LONG TERM CLIMAT HISTORY DATING BACK TO THE
1870S; THE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RECORD LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING COUNTRYSIDE NEAR ATLANTIC CITY
AND MAYBE NEAR TRENTON, DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THICK CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES AT 06Z OR 9Z. A LATER ARRIVAL PERMITS A BETTER CHC OF RECORDS.
MONDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT IT COOLS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY IS
PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH POTENTIAL 50S TO
LOWER 60S I-95 SEWD AND CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THEREAFTER, THE 12Z/27 ECMWF ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN
HAS COME INTO GREATER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON ANOTHER COLD SHOT
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK, DAYTIME MAX TEMP COLD BIAS
NOTWITHSTANDING. TEMPS MAY RUN 5 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 50 50 BLEND 12Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT, 12Z/27 MEX MOS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN THE 15Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY-
NEXT FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY (CIRRUS EARLY EVENING)
WITH STRONG COUNTRYSIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE KTTN AND KACY, THEN CLOUDING UP RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNRISE.
LIGHT WIND. RECORDS DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THICK
CLOUD COVER. THE WARMER NAM TEMPS WERE NOT FACTORED INTO THIS
SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST AT ALL. GFS 2M TEMPS ARE A SIGNIFICANT
INDICATOR OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ADVISORY EVENT HIGHLY PROBABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY: PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MIDDAY OR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PHL SEWD A TINY BIT OF SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH WIND. MEANWHILE SNOW ACCUMULATES
NW OF I-95 AND WHILE WE JUST DON`T KNOW HOW MUCH (2 TO 6"--HEAVIEST
SOMEWHERE N OF I-78), WE DO SEE THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUBFREEZING
FOR QUITE A BIT OF TIME SO THAT EVEN IF A WARM ABOVE FREEZING NOSE
POKES NORTHWARD, WE ARE THEN LOOKING AT ICE. LIGHT WIND.

MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLY 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS CONCERN THAT THIS EVENT WILL END UP MOSTLY SNOW AND LESS
FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...SE OF I95 WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF NON FREEZING RAIN AFTER 08Z MONDAY.

ONE CAUSE OF THE PCPN IS AN INSTABILITY BURST HEADED FOR THE DELMARVA.


MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AT SUNRISE QUICKLY END ALONG THE
COAST, THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WITH NW WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG CAA.

MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.   LIGHT WIND.

TUESDAY...THICKENING CLOUDS.  CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE DAY?  LIGHT
SOUTH WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY MIXED WINTRY PCPN QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN I-95
SEWD BUT NW OF I-95 SNOW CHANGES TO ICE AND THEN PROBABLY RAIN.
TIMING UNCERTAIN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHIFT SW LATE. ANOTHER STRONG
INSTABILITY BURST THAT NOSES TO THE DELMARVA.

WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND MILDER. HOW MILD IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH 60 PHL SEWD?, COOLER TO
THE NORTH AND WARMTH DEPENDENT IN PART ON SOUTHWEST FLOW MIXING.
SW WIND SHIFTS TO NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING...THE CFP TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IF A WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT THEN POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A TOUCH OF SNOW?

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TURNING MUCH COLDER. NW WIND GUSTY 25-30
MPH.

FRIDAY...FAIR AND COLD.  W-NW WIND GUST 20 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS
EVENING  AROUND 5,000 FEET SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY. CIRRUS ABOVE
10,000 FEET SHOULD MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM 320-
350 DEGREES AS WELL, TOP WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS BEFORE 23Z. WIND COULD SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWERING CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CLEAR TO START WITH LIGHT WIND
THEN RAPIDLY LOWERING CIGS TO NEAR 5000 FT FROM WEST TO EAST IN
THE 09Z-17Z TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW CHANGING TO ICE
KRDG/KABE/KTTN/KPNE. LIGHT WIND.

MONDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH A GUSTY NW WIND 30 TO POSSIBLY 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR CIRRUS THEN MVFR OR IFR CONDS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE
IN THE DAY CHANGING TO ICE OR RAIN AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER ANY LEFTOVER MORNING IFR OR
MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS? SW WIND SHIFTING NW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED TILL 23Z ON THE OCEAN. SEAS HAVE LOWERED TO
AROUND FIVE FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GET LOWER THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO QUICK TO LOWER THE SEAS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY
AROUND 10 KNOTS.OUTLOOK...

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED.

NW GALE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS MONDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND ONE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND
EVENT IS ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 5 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN MIND
THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T CAUSE
FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR FRI/27TH AND SAT/28TH. NO RECORDS WERE SET
TODAY ALTHOUGH KACY WAS CLOSE...3 DEGREES OFF THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS ON SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27          /  FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900  NO RER  /  9 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1874 / KACY /  7 1934* NO RER  /  2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934  NO RER  / -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963  NO RER  /-10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934* NO RER  /  3 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934  NO RER  /  1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963  NO RER  /  8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993  NO RER  /-15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS (27TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND
SFT`S. WE SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO PRIOR PROJECTIONS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY
2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN
JANUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KGED SUNSHINE MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO WARM. A TROUBLE TICKET
IS POSTED ON THIS TEMPERATURE SENSOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...CORRECTED TOP 5 COLDEST FEB TABLE AT PHL AND ACY
EQUIPMENT...GAINES/DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 272217
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
517 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST ARRIVES
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MOVES TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY.
ITS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
WITH AN ATTENDANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY FILTERS INTO OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES INCORPORATE THE GFS MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES
WHICH SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLED THE SNOWCOVER AND THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE SETS. SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OUTSIDE OF PHILADELPHIA
TONIGHT. CLIMATE SECTION HAS MORE ON THE THREAT FOR ANY RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT BUT COLD DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER 10 MPH, PERHAPS SHIFTING
TO MORE WESTERLY LATE. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ONLY SOME
HIGH CIRRUS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS HAVE BEEN
TO COOL WITH HIGHS IN RECENT SUNNY DAYS, WENT A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER WITH HIGHS DUE TO RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**WINTERY WX EVENTS SLATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AT
  LEAST IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ**

500MB: A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT MOVES
TO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY; THEN A PARTIAL PHASING OF SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
THE PLAINS STATES. THAT TROUGH MOVES TO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY WHILE A
TRAILING SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS NEXT FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

TEMPERATURES: WE`RE IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OUT THE TOP 5 OR 6
COLDEST FEBRUARY IN LONG TERM CLIMAT HISTORY DATING BACK TO THE
1870S; THE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RECORD LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING COUNTRYSIDE NEAR ATLANTIC CITY
AND MAYBE NEAR TRENTON, DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THICK CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES AT 06Z OR 9Z. A LATER ARRIVAL PERMITS A BETTER CHC OF RECORDS.
MONDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT IT COOLS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY IS
PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH POTENTIAL 50S TO
LOWER 60S I-95 SEWD AND CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THEREAFTER, THE 12Z/27 ECMWF ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN
HAS COME INTO GREATER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON ANOTHER COLD SHOT
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK, DAYTIME MAX TEMP COLD BIAS
NOTWITHSTANDING. TEMPS MAY RUN 5 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 50 50 BLEND 12Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT, 12Z/27 MEX MOS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN THE 15Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY-
NEXT FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY (CIRRUS EARLY EVENING)
WITH STRONG COUNTRYSIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE KTTN AND KACY, THEN CLOUDING UP RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNRISE.
LIGHT WIND. RECORDS DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THICK
CLOUD COVER. THE WARMER NAM TEMPS WERE NOT FACTORED INTO THIS
SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST AT ALL. GFS 2M TEMPS ARE A SIGNIFICANT
INDICATOR OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ADVISORY EVENT HIGHLY PROBABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY: PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MIDDAY OR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PHL SEWD A TINY BIT OF SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH WIND. MEANWHILE SNOW ACCUMULATES
NW OF I-95 AND WHILE WE JUST DON`T KNOW HOW MUCH (2 TO 6"--HEAVIEST
SOMEWHERE N OF I-78), WE DO SEE THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUBFREEZING
FOR QUITE A BIT OF TIME SO THAT EVEN IF A WARM ABOVE FREEZING NOSE
POKES NORTHWARD, WE ARE THEN LOOKING AT ICE. LIGHT WIND.

MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLY 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS CONCERN THAT THIS EVENT WILL END UP MOSTLY SNOW AND LESS
FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...SE OF I95 WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF NON FREEZING RAIN AFTER 08Z MONDAY.

ONE CAUSE OF THE PCPN IS AN INSTABILITY BURST HEADED FOR THE DELMARVA.


MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AT SUNRISE QUICKLY END ALONG THE
COAST, THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WITH NW WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG CAA.

MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.   LIGHT WIND.

TUESDAY...THICKENING CLOUDS.  CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE DAY?  LIGHT
SOUTH WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY MIXED WINTRY PCPN QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN I-95
SEWD BUT NW OF I-95 SNOW CHANGES TO ICE AND THEN PROBABLY RAIN.
TIMING UNCERTAIN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHIFT SW LATE. ANOTHER STRONG
INSTABILITY BURST THAT NOSES TO THE DELMARVA.

WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND MILDER. HOW MILD IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH 60 PHL SEWD?, COOLER TO
THE NORTH AND WARMTH DEPENDENT IN PART ON SOUTHWEST FLOW MIXING.
SW WIND SHIFTS TO NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING...THE CFP TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IF A WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT THEN POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A TOUCH OF SNOW?

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TURNING MUCH COLDER. NW WIND GUSTY 25-30
MPH.

FRIDAY...FAIR AND COLD.  W-NW WIND GUST 20 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS
EVENING  AROUND 5,000 FEET SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY. CIRRUS ABOVE
10,000 FEET SHOULD MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM 320-
350 DEGREES AS WELL, TOP WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS BEFORE 23Z. WIND COULD SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWERING CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CLEAR TO START WITH LIGHT WIND
THEN RAPIDLY LOWERING CIGS TO NEAR 5000 FT FROM WEST TO EAST IN
THE 09Z-17Z TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW CHANGING TO ICE
KRDG/KABE/KTTN/KPNE. LIGHT WIND.

MONDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH A GUSTY NW WIND 30 TO POSSIBLY 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR CIRRUS THEN MVFR OR IFR CONDS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE
IN THE DAY CHANGING TO ICE OR RAIN AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER ANY LEFTOVER MORNING IFR OR
MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS? SW WIND SHIFTING NW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED TILL 23Z ON THE OCEAN. SEAS HAVE LOWERED TO
AROUND FIVE FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GET LOWER THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO QUICK TO LOWER THE SEAS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY
AROUND 10 KNOTS.OUTLOOK...

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED.

NW GALE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS MONDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND ONE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND
EVENT IS ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 5 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN MIND
THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T CAUSE
FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR FRI/27TH AND SAT/28TH. NO RECORDS WERE SET
TODAY ALTHOUGH KACY WAS CLOSE...3 DEGREES OFF THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS ON SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27          /  FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900  NO RER  /  9 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1874 / KACY /  7 1934* NO RER  /  2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934  NO RER  / -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963  NO RER  /-10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934* NO RER  /  3 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934  NO RER  /  1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963  NO RER  /  8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993  NO RER  /-15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS (27TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND
SFT`S. WE SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO PRIOR PROJECTIONS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY
2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN
JANUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KGED SUNSHINE MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO WARM. A TROUBLE TICKET
IS POSTED ON THIS TEMPERATURE SENSOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...CORRECTED TOP 5 COLDEST FEB TABLE AT PHL AND ACY
EQUIPMENT...GAINES/DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 272217
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
517 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST ARRIVES
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MOVES TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY.
ITS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
WITH AN ATTENDANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY FILTERS INTO OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES INCORPORATE THE GFS MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES
WHICH SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLED THE SNOWCOVER AND THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE SETS. SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OUTSIDE OF PHILADELPHIA
TONIGHT. CLIMATE SECTION HAS MORE ON THE THREAT FOR ANY RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT BUT COLD DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER 10 MPH, PERHAPS SHIFTING
TO MORE WESTERLY LATE. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ONLY SOME
HIGH CIRRUS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS HAVE BEEN
TO COOL WITH HIGHS IN RECENT SUNNY DAYS, WENT A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER WITH HIGHS DUE TO RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**WINTERY WX EVENTS SLATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AT
  LEAST IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ**

500MB: A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT MOVES
TO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY; THEN A PARTIAL PHASING OF SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
THE PLAINS STATES. THAT TROUGH MOVES TO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY WHILE A
TRAILING SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS NEXT FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

TEMPERATURES: WE`RE IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OUT THE TOP 5 OR 6
COLDEST FEBRUARY IN LONG TERM CLIMAT HISTORY DATING BACK TO THE
1870S; THE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RECORD LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING COUNTRYSIDE NEAR ATLANTIC CITY
AND MAYBE NEAR TRENTON, DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THICK CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES AT 06Z OR 9Z. A LATER ARRIVAL PERMITS A BETTER CHC OF RECORDS.
MONDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT IT COOLS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY IS
PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH POTENTIAL 50S TO
LOWER 60S I-95 SEWD AND CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THEREAFTER, THE 12Z/27 ECMWF ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN
HAS COME INTO GREATER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON ANOTHER COLD SHOT
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK, DAYTIME MAX TEMP COLD BIAS
NOTWITHSTANDING. TEMPS MAY RUN 5 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 50 50 BLEND 12Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT, 12Z/27 MEX MOS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN THE 15Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY-
NEXT FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY (CIRRUS EARLY EVENING)
WITH STRONG COUNTRYSIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE KTTN AND KACY, THEN CLOUDING UP RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNRISE.
LIGHT WIND. RECORDS DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THICK
CLOUD COVER. THE WARMER NAM TEMPS WERE NOT FACTORED INTO THIS
SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST AT ALL. GFS 2M TEMPS ARE A SIGNIFICANT
INDICATOR OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ADVISORY EVENT HIGHLY PROBABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY: PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MIDDAY OR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PHL SEWD A TINY BIT OF SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH WIND. MEANWHILE SNOW ACCUMULATES
NW OF I-95 AND WHILE WE JUST DON`T KNOW HOW MUCH (2 TO 6"--HEAVIEST
SOMEWHERE N OF I-78), WE DO SEE THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUBFREEZING
FOR QUITE A BIT OF TIME SO THAT EVEN IF A WARM ABOVE FREEZING NOSE
POKES NORTHWARD, WE ARE THEN LOOKING AT ICE. LIGHT WIND.

MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLY 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS CONCERN THAT THIS EVENT WILL END UP MOSTLY SNOW AND LESS
FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...SE OF I95 WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF NON FREEZING RAIN AFTER 08Z MONDAY.

ONE CAUSE OF THE PCPN IS AN INSTABILITY BURST HEADED FOR THE DELMARVA.


MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AT SUNRISE QUICKLY END ALONG THE
COAST, THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WITH NW WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG CAA.

MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.   LIGHT WIND.

TUESDAY...THICKENING CLOUDS.  CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE DAY?  LIGHT
SOUTH WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY MIXED WINTRY PCPN QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN I-95
SEWD BUT NW OF I-95 SNOW CHANGES TO ICE AND THEN PROBABLY RAIN.
TIMING UNCERTAIN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHIFT SW LATE. ANOTHER STRONG
INSTABILITY BURST THAT NOSES TO THE DELMARVA.

WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND MILDER. HOW MILD IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH 60 PHL SEWD?, COOLER TO
THE NORTH AND WARMTH DEPENDENT IN PART ON SOUTHWEST FLOW MIXING.
SW WIND SHIFTS TO NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING...THE CFP TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IF A WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT THEN POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A TOUCH OF SNOW?

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TURNING MUCH COLDER. NW WIND GUSTY 25-30
MPH.

FRIDAY...FAIR AND COLD.  W-NW WIND GUST 20 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS
EVENING  AROUND 5,000 FEET SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY. CIRRUS ABOVE
10,000 FEET SHOULD MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM 320-
350 DEGREES AS WELL, TOP WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS BEFORE 23Z. WIND COULD SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWERING CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CLEAR TO START WITH LIGHT WIND
THEN RAPIDLY LOWERING CIGS TO NEAR 5000 FT FROM WEST TO EAST IN
THE 09Z-17Z TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW CHANGING TO ICE
KRDG/KABE/KTTN/KPNE. LIGHT WIND.

MONDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH A GUSTY NW WIND 30 TO POSSIBLY 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR CIRRUS THEN MVFR OR IFR CONDS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE
IN THE DAY CHANGING TO ICE OR RAIN AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER ANY LEFTOVER MORNING IFR OR
MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS? SW WIND SHIFTING NW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED TILL 23Z ON THE OCEAN. SEAS HAVE LOWERED TO
AROUND FIVE FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GET LOWER THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO QUICK TO LOWER THE SEAS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY
AROUND 10 KNOTS.OUTLOOK...

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED.

NW GALE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS MONDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND ONE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND
EVENT IS ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 5 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN MIND
THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T CAUSE
FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR FRI/27TH AND SAT/28TH. NO RECORDS WERE SET
TODAY ALTHOUGH KACY WAS CLOSE...3 DEGREES OFF THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS ON SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27          /  FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900  NO RER  /  9 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1874 / KACY /  7 1934* NO RER  /  2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934  NO RER  / -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963  NO RER  /-10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934* NO RER  /  3 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934  NO RER  /  1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963  NO RER  /  8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993  NO RER  /-15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS (27TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND
SFT`S. WE SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO PRIOR PROJECTIONS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.4(1895)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.6(1934) 23.8(1978) 24.9(2015) 25.5(1875)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, BOTH ACY AND ILG 4TH COLDEST, AND PHL THE SIXTH COLDEST
PROJECTED AT 25.5F (NOT SHOWN IN THE TABLE ABOVE).

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY
2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN
JANUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KGED SUNSHINE MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO WARM. A TROUBLE TICKET
IS POSTED ON THIS TEMPERATURE SENSOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...CORRECTED TOP 5 COLDEST FEB TABLE AT PHL AND ACY
EQUIPMENT...GAINES/DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 272148
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
448 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST ARRIVES
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MOVES TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY.
ITS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
WITH AN ATTENDANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY FILTERS INTO OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES INCORPORATE THE GFS MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES
WHICH SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLED THE SNOWCOVER AND THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE SETS. SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OUTSIDE OF PHILADELPHIA
TONIGHT. CLIMATE SECTION HAS MORE ON THE THREAT FOR ANY RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT BUT COLD DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER 10 MPH, PERHAPS SHIFTING
TO MORE WESTERLY LATE. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ONLY SOME
HIGH CIRRUS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS HAVE BEEN
TO COOL WITH HIGHS IN RECENT SUNNY DAYS, WENT A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER WITH HIGHS DUE TO RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**WINTERY WX EVENTS SLATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AT
  LEAST IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ**

500MB: A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT MOVES
TO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY; THEN A PARTIAL PHASING OF SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
THE PLAINS STATES. THAT TROUGH MOVES TO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY WHILE A
TRAILING SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS NEXT FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

TEMPERATURES: WE`RE IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OUT THE TOP 5 OR 6
COLDEST FEBRUARY IN LONG TERM CLIMAT HISTORY DATING BACK TO THE
1870S; THE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RECORD LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING COUNTRYSIDE NEAR ATLANTIC CITY
AND MAYBE NEAR TRENTON, DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THICK CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES AT 06Z OR 9Z. A LATER ARRIVAL PERMITS A BETTER CHC OF RECORDS.
MONDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT IT COOLS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY IS
PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH POTENTIAL 50S TO
LOWER 60S I-95 SEWD AND CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THEREAFTER, THE 12Z/27 ECMWF ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN
HAS COME INTO GREATER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON ANOTHER COLD SHOT
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK, DAYTIME MAX TEMP COLD BIAS
NOTWITHSTANDING. TEMPS MAY RUN 5 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 50 50 BLEND 12Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT, 12Z/27 MEX MOS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN THE 15Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY-
NEXT FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY (CIRRUS EARLY EVENING)
WITH STRONG COUNTRYSIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE KTTN AND KACY, THEN CLOUDING UP RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNRISE.
LIGHT WIND. RECORDS DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THICK
CLOUD COVER. THE WARMER NAM TEMPS WERE NOT FACTORED INTO THIS
SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST AT ALL. GFS 2M TEMPS ARE A SIGNIFICANT
INDICATOR OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ADVISORY EVENT HIGHLY PROBABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY: PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MIDDAY OR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PHL SEWD A TINY BIT OF SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH WIND. MEANWHILE SNOW ACCUMULATES
NW OF I-95 AND WHILE WE JUST DON`T KNOW HOW MUCH (2 TO 6"--HEAVIEST
SOMEWHERE N OF I-78), WE DO SEE THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUBFREEZING
FOR QUITE A BIT OF TIME SO THAT EVEN IF A WARM ABOVE FREEZING NOSE
POKES NORTHWARD, WE ARE THEN LOOKING AT ICE. LIGHT WIND.

MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLY 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS CONCERN THAT THIS EVENT WILL END UP MOSTLY SNOW AND LESS
FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...SE OF I95 WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF NON FREEZING RAIN AFTER 08Z MONDAY.

ONE CAUSE OF THE PCPN IS AN INSTABILITY BURST HEADED FOR THE DELMARVA.


MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AT SUNRISE QUICKLY END ALONG THE
COAST, THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WITH NW WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG CAA.

MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.   LIGHT WIND.

TUESDAY...THICKENING CLOUDS.  CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE DAY?  LIGHT
SOUTH WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY MIXED WINTRY PCPN QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN I-95
SEWD BUT NW OF I-95 SNOW CHANGES TO ICE AND THEN PROBABLY RAIN.
TIMING UNCERTAIN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHIFT SW LATE. ANOTHER STRONG
INSTABILITY BURST THAT NOSES TO THE DELMARVA.

WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND MILDER. HOW MILD IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH 60 PHL SEWD?, COOLER TO
THE NORTH AND WARMTH DEPENDENT IN PART ON SOUTHWEST FLOW MIXING.
SW WIND SHIFTS TO NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING...THE CFP TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IF A WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT THEN POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A TOUCH OF SNOW?

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TURNING MUCH COLDER. NW WIND GUSTY 25-30
MPH.

FRIDAY...FAIR AND COLD.  W-NW WIND GUST 20 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS
EVENING  AROUND 5,000 FEET SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY. CIRRUS ABOVE
10,000 FEET SHOULD MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM 320-
350 DEGREES AS WELL, TOP WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS BEFORE 23Z. WIND COULD SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWERING CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CLEAR TO START WITH LIGHT WIND
THEN RAPIDLY LOWERING CIGS TO NEAR 5000 FT FROM WEST TO EAST IN
THE 09Z-17Z TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW CHANGING TO ICE
KRDG/KABE/KTTN/KPNE. LIGHT WIND.

MONDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH A GUSTY NW WIND 30 TO POSSIBLY 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR CIRRUS THEN MVFR OR IFR CONDS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE
IN THE DAY CHANGING TO ICE OR RAIN AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER ANY LEFTOVER MORNING IFR OR
MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS? SW WIND SHIFTING NW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED TILL 23Z ON THE OCEAN. SEAS HAVE LOWERED TO
AROUND FIVE FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GET LOWER THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO QUICK TO LOWER THE SEAS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY
AROUND 10 KNOTS.OUTLOOK...

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED.

NW GALE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS MONDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND ONE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND
EVENT IS ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 5 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN MIND
THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T CAUSE
FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR FRI/27TH AND SAT/28TH. NO RECORDS WERE SET
TODAY ALTHOUGH KACY WAS CLOSE...3 DEGREES OFF THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS ON SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27          /  FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900  NO RER  /  9 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1874 / KACY /  7 1934* NO RER  /  2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934  NO RER  / -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963  NO RER  /-10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934* NO RER  /  3 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934  NO RER  /  1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963  NO RER  /  8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993  NO RER  /-15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS (27TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND
SFT`S. WE SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO PRIOR PROJECTIONS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978)*24.9(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7(1905)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

*KACY: 1978 TIED WITH 1934 FOR THE PROJECTED SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY.

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY
2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN
JANUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KGED SUNSHINE MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO WARM. A TROUBLE TICKET
IS POSTED ON THIS TEMPERATURE SENSOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...CORRECTED ALL TIME COLDEST AT KABE 448P
EQUIPMENT...GAINES/DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 272148
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
448 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST ARRIVES
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MOVES TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY.
ITS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
WITH AN ATTENDANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY FILTERS INTO OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES INCORPORATE THE GFS MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES
WHICH SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLED THE SNOWCOVER AND THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE SETS. SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OUTSIDE OF PHILADELPHIA
TONIGHT. CLIMATE SECTION HAS MORE ON THE THREAT FOR ANY RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT BUT COLD DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER 10 MPH, PERHAPS SHIFTING
TO MORE WESTERLY LATE. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ONLY SOME
HIGH CIRRUS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS HAVE BEEN
TO COOL WITH HIGHS IN RECENT SUNNY DAYS, WENT A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER WITH HIGHS DUE TO RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**WINTERY WX EVENTS SLATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AT
  LEAST IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ**

500MB: A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT MOVES
TO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY; THEN A PARTIAL PHASING OF SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
THE PLAINS STATES. THAT TROUGH MOVES TO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY WHILE A
TRAILING SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS NEXT FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

TEMPERATURES: WE`RE IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OUT THE TOP 5 OR 6
COLDEST FEBRUARY IN LONG TERM CLIMAT HISTORY DATING BACK TO THE
1870S; THE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RECORD LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING COUNTRYSIDE NEAR ATLANTIC CITY
AND MAYBE NEAR TRENTON, DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THICK CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES AT 06Z OR 9Z. A LATER ARRIVAL PERMITS A BETTER CHC OF RECORDS.
MONDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT IT COOLS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY IS
PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH POTENTIAL 50S TO
LOWER 60S I-95 SEWD AND CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THEREAFTER, THE 12Z/27 ECMWF ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN
HAS COME INTO GREATER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON ANOTHER COLD SHOT
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK, DAYTIME MAX TEMP COLD BIAS
NOTWITHSTANDING. TEMPS MAY RUN 5 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 50 50 BLEND 12Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT, 12Z/27 MEX MOS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN THE 15Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY-
NEXT FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY (CIRRUS EARLY EVENING)
WITH STRONG COUNTRYSIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE KTTN AND KACY, THEN CLOUDING UP RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNRISE.
LIGHT WIND. RECORDS DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THICK
CLOUD COVER. THE WARMER NAM TEMPS WERE NOT FACTORED INTO THIS
SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST AT ALL. GFS 2M TEMPS ARE A SIGNIFICANT
INDICATOR OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ADVISORY EVENT HIGHLY PROBABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY: PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MIDDAY OR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PHL SEWD A TINY BIT OF SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH WIND. MEANWHILE SNOW ACCUMULATES
NW OF I-95 AND WHILE WE JUST DON`T KNOW HOW MUCH (2 TO 6"--HEAVIEST
SOMEWHERE N OF I-78), WE DO SEE THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUBFREEZING
FOR QUITE A BIT OF TIME SO THAT EVEN IF A WARM ABOVE FREEZING NOSE
POKES NORTHWARD, WE ARE THEN LOOKING AT ICE. LIGHT WIND.

MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLY 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS CONCERN THAT THIS EVENT WILL END UP MOSTLY SNOW AND LESS
FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...SE OF I95 WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF NON FREEZING RAIN AFTER 08Z MONDAY.

ONE CAUSE OF THE PCPN IS AN INSTABILITY BURST HEADED FOR THE DELMARVA.


MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AT SUNRISE QUICKLY END ALONG THE
COAST, THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WITH NW WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG CAA.

MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.   LIGHT WIND.

TUESDAY...THICKENING CLOUDS.  CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE DAY?  LIGHT
SOUTH WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY MIXED WINTRY PCPN QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN I-95
SEWD BUT NW OF I-95 SNOW CHANGES TO ICE AND THEN PROBABLY RAIN.
TIMING UNCERTAIN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHIFT SW LATE. ANOTHER STRONG
INSTABILITY BURST THAT NOSES TO THE DELMARVA.

WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND MILDER. HOW MILD IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH 60 PHL SEWD?, COOLER TO
THE NORTH AND WARMTH DEPENDENT IN PART ON SOUTHWEST FLOW MIXING.
SW WIND SHIFTS TO NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING...THE CFP TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IF A WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT THEN POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A TOUCH OF SNOW?

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TURNING MUCH COLDER. NW WIND GUSTY 25-30
MPH.

FRIDAY...FAIR AND COLD.  W-NW WIND GUST 20 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS
EVENING  AROUND 5,000 FEET SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY. CIRRUS ABOVE
10,000 FEET SHOULD MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM 320-
350 DEGREES AS WELL, TOP WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS BEFORE 23Z. WIND COULD SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWERING CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CLEAR TO START WITH LIGHT WIND
THEN RAPIDLY LOWERING CIGS TO NEAR 5000 FT FROM WEST TO EAST IN
THE 09Z-17Z TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW CHANGING TO ICE
KRDG/KABE/KTTN/KPNE. LIGHT WIND.

MONDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH A GUSTY NW WIND 30 TO POSSIBLY 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR CIRRUS THEN MVFR OR IFR CONDS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE
IN THE DAY CHANGING TO ICE OR RAIN AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER ANY LEFTOVER MORNING IFR OR
MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS? SW WIND SHIFTING NW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED TILL 23Z ON THE OCEAN. SEAS HAVE LOWERED TO
AROUND FIVE FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GET LOWER THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO QUICK TO LOWER THE SEAS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY
AROUND 10 KNOTS.OUTLOOK...

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED.

NW GALE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS MONDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND ONE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND
EVENT IS ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 5 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN MIND
THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T CAUSE
FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR FRI/27TH AND SAT/28TH. NO RECORDS WERE SET
TODAY ALTHOUGH KACY WAS CLOSE...3 DEGREES OFF THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS ON SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27          /  FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900  NO RER  /  9 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1874 / KACY /  7 1934* NO RER  /  2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934  NO RER  / -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963  NO RER  /-10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934* NO RER  /  3 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934  NO RER  /  1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963  NO RER  /  8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993  NO RER  /-15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS (27TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND
SFT`S. WE SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO PRIOR PROJECTIONS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978)*24.9(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7(1905)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

*KACY: 1978 TIED WITH 1934 FOR THE PROJECTED SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY.

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY
2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN
JANUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KGED SUNSHINE MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO WARM. A TROUBLE TICKET
IS POSTED ON THIS TEMPERATURE SENSOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...CORRECTED ALL TIME COLDEST AT KABE 448P
EQUIPMENT...GAINES/DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 272148
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
448 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST ARRIVES
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MOVES TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY.
ITS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
WITH AN ATTENDANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY FILTERS INTO OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES INCORPORATE THE GFS MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES
WHICH SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLED THE SNOWCOVER AND THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE SETS. SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OUTSIDE OF PHILADELPHIA
TONIGHT. CLIMATE SECTION HAS MORE ON THE THREAT FOR ANY RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT BUT COLD DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER 10 MPH, PERHAPS SHIFTING
TO MORE WESTERLY LATE. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ONLY SOME
HIGH CIRRUS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS HAVE BEEN
TO COOL WITH HIGHS IN RECENT SUNNY DAYS, WENT A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER WITH HIGHS DUE TO RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**WINTERY WX EVENTS SLATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AT
  LEAST IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ**

500MB: A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT MOVES
TO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY; THEN A PARTIAL PHASING OF SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
THE PLAINS STATES. THAT TROUGH MOVES TO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY WHILE A
TRAILING SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS NEXT FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

TEMPERATURES: WE`RE IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OUT THE TOP 5 OR 6
COLDEST FEBRUARY IN LONG TERM CLIMAT HISTORY DATING BACK TO THE
1870S; THE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RECORD LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING COUNTRYSIDE NEAR ATLANTIC CITY
AND MAYBE NEAR TRENTON, DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THICK CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES AT 06Z OR 9Z. A LATER ARRIVAL PERMITS A BETTER CHC OF RECORDS.
MONDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT IT COOLS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY IS
PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH POTENTIAL 50S TO
LOWER 60S I-95 SEWD AND CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THEREAFTER, THE 12Z/27 ECMWF ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN
HAS COME INTO GREATER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON ANOTHER COLD SHOT
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK, DAYTIME MAX TEMP COLD BIAS
NOTWITHSTANDING. TEMPS MAY RUN 5 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 50 50 BLEND 12Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT, 12Z/27 MEX MOS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN THE 15Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY-
NEXT FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY (CIRRUS EARLY EVENING)
WITH STRONG COUNTRYSIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE KTTN AND KACY, THEN CLOUDING UP RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNRISE.
LIGHT WIND. RECORDS DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THICK
CLOUD COVER. THE WARMER NAM TEMPS WERE NOT FACTORED INTO THIS
SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST AT ALL. GFS 2M TEMPS ARE A SIGNIFICANT
INDICATOR OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ADVISORY EVENT HIGHLY PROBABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY: PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MIDDAY OR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PHL SEWD A TINY BIT OF SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH WIND. MEANWHILE SNOW ACCUMULATES
NW OF I-95 AND WHILE WE JUST DON`T KNOW HOW MUCH (2 TO 6"--HEAVIEST
SOMEWHERE N OF I-78), WE DO SEE THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUBFREEZING
FOR QUITE A BIT OF TIME SO THAT EVEN IF A WARM ABOVE FREEZING NOSE
POKES NORTHWARD, WE ARE THEN LOOKING AT ICE. LIGHT WIND.

MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLY 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS CONCERN THAT THIS EVENT WILL END UP MOSTLY SNOW AND LESS
FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...SE OF I95 WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF NON FREEZING RAIN AFTER 08Z MONDAY.

ONE CAUSE OF THE PCPN IS AN INSTABILITY BURST HEADED FOR THE DELMARVA.


MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AT SUNRISE QUICKLY END ALONG THE
COAST, THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WITH NW WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG CAA.

MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.   LIGHT WIND.

TUESDAY...THICKENING CLOUDS.  CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE DAY?  LIGHT
SOUTH WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY MIXED WINTRY PCPN QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN I-95
SEWD BUT NW OF I-95 SNOW CHANGES TO ICE AND THEN PROBABLY RAIN.
TIMING UNCERTAIN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHIFT SW LATE. ANOTHER STRONG
INSTABILITY BURST THAT NOSES TO THE DELMARVA.

WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND MILDER. HOW MILD IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH 60 PHL SEWD?, COOLER TO
THE NORTH AND WARMTH DEPENDENT IN PART ON SOUTHWEST FLOW MIXING.
SW WIND SHIFTS TO NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING...THE CFP TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IF A WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT THEN POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A TOUCH OF SNOW?

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TURNING MUCH COLDER. NW WIND GUSTY 25-30
MPH.

FRIDAY...FAIR AND COLD.  W-NW WIND GUST 20 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS
EVENING  AROUND 5,000 FEET SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY. CIRRUS ABOVE
10,000 FEET SHOULD MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM 320-
350 DEGREES AS WELL, TOP WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS BEFORE 23Z. WIND COULD SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWERING CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CLEAR TO START WITH LIGHT WIND
THEN RAPIDLY LOWERING CIGS TO NEAR 5000 FT FROM WEST TO EAST IN
THE 09Z-17Z TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW CHANGING TO ICE
KRDG/KABE/KTTN/KPNE. LIGHT WIND.

MONDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH A GUSTY NW WIND 30 TO POSSIBLY 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR CIRRUS THEN MVFR OR IFR CONDS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE
IN THE DAY CHANGING TO ICE OR RAIN AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER ANY LEFTOVER MORNING IFR OR
MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS? SW WIND SHIFTING NW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED TILL 23Z ON THE OCEAN. SEAS HAVE LOWERED TO
AROUND FIVE FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GET LOWER THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO QUICK TO LOWER THE SEAS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY
AROUND 10 KNOTS.OUTLOOK...

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED.

NW GALE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS MONDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND ONE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND
EVENT IS ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 5 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN MIND
THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T CAUSE
FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR FRI/27TH AND SAT/28TH. NO RECORDS WERE SET
TODAY ALTHOUGH KACY WAS CLOSE...3 DEGREES OFF THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS ON SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27          /  FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900  NO RER  /  9 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1874 / KACY /  7 1934* NO RER  /  2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934  NO RER  / -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963  NO RER  /-10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934* NO RER  /  3 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934  NO RER  /  1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963  NO RER  /  8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993  NO RER  /-15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS (27TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND
SFT`S. WE SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO PRIOR PROJECTIONS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978)*24.9(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7(1905)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

*KACY: 1978 TIED WITH 1934 FOR THE PROJECTED SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY.

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY
2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN
JANUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND OR THIRD COLDEST
MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1922, WITH FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER
SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KGED SUNSHINE MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO WARM. A TROUBLE TICKET
IS POSTED ON THIS TEMPERATURE SENSOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...CORRECTED ALL TIME COLDEST AT KABE 448P
EQUIPMENT...GAINES/DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 272111
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST ARRIVES
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MOVES TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY.
ITS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
WITH AN ATTENDANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY FILTERS INTO OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES INCORPORATE THE GFS MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES
WHICH SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLED THE SNOWCOVER AND THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE SETS. SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OUTSIDE OF PHILADELPHIA
TONIGHT. CLIMATE SECTION HAS MORE ON THE THREAT FOR ANY RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT BUT COLD DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER 10 MPH, PERHAPS SHIFTING
TO MORE WESTERLY LATE. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ONLY SOME
HIGH CIRRUS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS HAVE BEEN
TO COOL WITH HIGHS IN RECENT SUNNY DAYS, WENT A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER WITH HIGHS DUE TO RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**WINTERY WX EVENTS SLATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AT
  LEAST IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ**

500MB: A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT MOVES
TO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY; THEN A PARTIAL PHASING OF SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
THE PLAINS STATES. THAT TROUGH MOVES TO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY WHILE A
TRAILING SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS NEXT FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

TEMPERATURES: WE`RE IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OUT THE TOP 5 OR 6
COLDEST FEBRUARY IN LONG TERM CLIMAT HISTORY DATING BACK TO THE
1870S; THE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RECORD LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING COUNTRYSIDE NEAR ATLANTIC CITY
AND MAYBE NEAR TRENTON, DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THICK CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES AT 06Z OR 9Z. A LATER ARRIVAL PERMITS A BETTER CHC OF RECORDS.
MONDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT IT COOLS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY IS
PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH POTENTIAL 50S TO
LOWER 60S I-95 SEWD AND CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THEREAFTER, THE 12Z/27 ECMWF ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN
HAS COME INTO GREATER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON ANOTHER COLD SHOT
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK, DAYTIME MAX TEMP COLD BIAS
NOTWITHSTANDING. TEMPS MAY RUN 5 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 50 50 BLEND 12Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT, 12Z/27 MEX MOS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN THE 15Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY-
NEXT FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY (CIRRUS EARLY EVENING)
WITH STRONG COUNTRYSIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE KTTN AND KACY, THEN CLOUDING UP RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNRISE.
LIGHT WIND. RECORDS DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THICK
CLOUD COVER. THE WARMER NAM TEMPS WERE NOT FACTORED INTO THIS
SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST AT ALL. GFS 2M TEMPS ARE A SIGNIFICANT
INDICATOR OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ADVISORY EVENT HIGHLY PROBABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY: PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MIDDAY OR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PHL SEWD A TINY BIT OF SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH WIND. MEANWHILE SNOW ACCUMULATES
NW OF I-95 AND WHILE WE JUST DON`T KNOW HOW MUCH (2 TO 6"--HEAVIEST
SOMEWHERE N OF I-78), WE DO SEE THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUBFREEZING
FOR QUITE A BIT OF TIME SO THAT EVEN IF A WARM ABOVE FREEZING NOSE
POKES NORTHWARD, WE ARE THEN LOOKING AT ICE. LIGHT WIND.

MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLY 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS CONCERN THAT THIS EVENT WILL END UP MOSTLY SNOW AND LESS
FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...SE OF I95 WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF NON FREEZING RAIN AFTER 08Z MONDAY.

ONE CAUSE OF THE PCPN IS AN INSTABILITY BURST HEADED FOR THE DELMARVA.


MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AT SUNRISE QUICKLY END ALONG THE
COAST, THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WITH NW WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG CAA.

MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.   LIGHT WIND.

TUESDAY...THICKENING CLOUDS.  CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE DAY?  LIGHT
SOUTH WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY MIXED WINTRY PCPN QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN I-95
SEWD BUT NW OF I-95 SNOW CHANGES TO ICE AND THEN PROBABLY RAIN.
TIMING UNCERTAIN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHIFT SW LATE. ANOTHER STRONG
INSTABILITY BURST THAT NOSES TO THE DELMARVA.

WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND MILDER. HOW MILD IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH 60 PHL SEWD?, COOLER TO
THE NORTH AND WARMTH DEPENDENT IN PART ON SOUTHWEST FLOW MIXING.
SW WIND SHIFTS TO NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING...THE CFP TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IF A WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT THEN POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A TOUCH OF SNOW?

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TURNING MUCH COLDER. NW WIND GUSTY 25-30
MPH.

FRIDAY...FAIR AND COLD.  W-NW WIND GUST 20 MPH.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS
EVENING  AROUND 5,000 FEET SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY. CIRRUS ABOVE
10,000 FEET SHOULD MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM 320-
350 DEGREES AS WELL, TOP WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS BEFORE 23Z. WIND COULD SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWERING CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CLEAR TO START WITH LIGHT WIND
THEN RAPIDLY LOWERING CIGS TO NEAR 5000 FT FROM WEST TO EAST IN
THE 09Z-17Z TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW CHANGING TO ICE
KRDG/KABE/KTTN/KPNE. LIGHT WIND.

MONDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH A GUSTY NW WIND 30 TO POSSIBLY 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR CIRRUS THEN MVFR OR IFR CONDS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE
IN THE DAY CHANGING TO ICE OR RAIN AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER ANY LEFTOVER MORNING IFR OR
MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS? SW WIND SHIFTING NW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED TILL 23Z ON THE OCEAN. SEAS HAVE LOWERED TO
AROUND FIVE FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GET LOWER THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO QUICK TO LOWER THE SEAS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY
AROUND 10 KNOTS.OUTLOOK...

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED.

NW GALE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS MONDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND ONE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND
EVENT IS ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 5 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN MIND
THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T CAUSE
FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR FRI/27TH AND SAT/28TH. NO RECORDS WERE SET
TODAY ALTHOUGH KACY WAS CLOSE...3 DEGREES OFF THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS ON SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27          /  FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900  NO RER  /  9 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1874 / KACY /  7 1934* NO RER  /  2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934  NO RER  / -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963  NO RER  /-10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934* NO RER  /  3 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934  NO RER  /  1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963  NO RER  /  8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993  NO RER  /-15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS (27TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND
SFT`S. WE SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO PRIOR PROJECTIONS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978)*24.9(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7(1905)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

*KACY: 1978 TIED WITH 1934 FOR THE PROJECTED SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY.

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY
2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN
JANUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN
TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1922, WITH
FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.


&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KGED SUNSHINE MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO WARM. A TROUBLE TICKET
IS POSTED ON THIS TEMPERATURE SENSOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 411
NEAR TERM...GAINES 411
SHORT TERM...GAINES 411
LONG TERM...DRAG 411
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 411
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES 411
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO 411
CLIMATE...FRANCK/DRAG 411
EQUIPMENT...GAINES/DRAG 411




000
FXUS61 KPHI 272111
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST ARRIVES
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MOVES TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY.
ITS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
WITH AN ATTENDANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY FILTERS INTO OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES INCORPORATE THE GFS MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES
WHICH SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLED THE SNOWCOVER AND THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE SETS. SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OUTSIDE OF PHILADELPHIA
TONIGHT. CLIMATE SECTION HAS MORE ON THE THREAT FOR ANY RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT BUT COLD DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER 10 MPH, PERHAPS SHIFTING
TO MORE WESTERLY LATE. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ONLY SOME
HIGH CIRRUS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS HAVE BEEN
TO COOL WITH HIGHS IN RECENT SUNNY DAYS, WENT A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER WITH HIGHS DUE TO RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**WINTERY WX EVENTS SLATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AT
  LEAST IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ**

500MB: A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT MOVES
TO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY; THEN A PARTIAL PHASING OF SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
THE PLAINS STATES. THAT TROUGH MOVES TO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY WHILE A
TRAILING SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS NEXT FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

TEMPERATURES: WE`RE IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OUT THE TOP 5 OR 6
COLDEST FEBRUARY IN LONG TERM CLIMAT HISTORY DATING BACK TO THE
1870S; THE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RECORD LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING COUNTRYSIDE NEAR ATLANTIC CITY
AND MAYBE NEAR TRENTON, DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THICK CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES AT 06Z OR 9Z. A LATER ARRIVAL PERMITS A BETTER CHC OF RECORDS.
MONDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT IT COOLS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY IS
PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH POTENTIAL 50S TO
LOWER 60S I-95 SEWD AND CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THEREAFTER, THE 12Z/27 ECMWF ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN
HAS COME INTO GREATER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON ANOTHER COLD SHOT
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK, DAYTIME MAX TEMP COLD BIAS
NOTWITHSTANDING. TEMPS MAY RUN 5 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 50 50 BLEND 12Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT, 12Z/27 MEX MOS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN THE 15Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY-
NEXT FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY (CIRRUS EARLY EVENING)
WITH STRONG COUNTRYSIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE KTTN AND KACY, THEN CLOUDING UP RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNRISE.
LIGHT WIND. RECORDS DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THICK
CLOUD COVER. THE WARMER NAM TEMPS WERE NOT FACTORED INTO THIS
SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST AT ALL. GFS 2M TEMPS ARE A SIGNIFICANT
INDICATOR OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ADVISORY EVENT HIGHLY PROBABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY: PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MIDDAY OR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PHL SEWD A TINY BIT OF SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH WIND. MEANWHILE SNOW ACCUMULATES
NW OF I-95 AND WHILE WE JUST DON`T KNOW HOW MUCH (2 TO 6"--HEAVIEST
SOMEWHERE N OF I-78), WE DO SEE THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUBFREEZING
FOR QUITE A BIT OF TIME SO THAT EVEN IF A WARM ABOVE FREEZING NOSE
POKES NORTHWARD, WE ARE THEN LOOKING AT ICE. LIGHT WIND.

MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLY 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS CONCERN THAT THIS EVENT WILL END UP MOSTLY SNOW AND LESS
FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...SE OF I95 WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF NON FREEZING RAIN AFTER 08Z MONDAY.

ONE CAUSE OF THE PCPN IS AN INSTABILITY BURST HEADED FOR THE DELMARVA.


MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AT SUNRISE QUICKLY END ALONG THE
COAST, THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WITH NW WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG CAA.

MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.   LIGHT WIND.

TUESDAY...THICKENING CLOUDS.  CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE DAY?  LIGHT
SOUTH WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY MIXED WINTRY PCPN QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN I-95
SEWD BUT NW OF I-95 SNOW CHANGES TO ICE AND THEN PROBABLY RAIN.
TIMING UNCERTAIN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHIFT SW LATE. ANOTHER STRONG
INSTABILITY BURST THAT NOSES TO THE DELMARVA.

WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND MILDER. HOW MILD IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH 60 PHL SEWD?, COOLER TO
THE NORTH AND WARMTH DEPENDENT IN PART ON SOUTHWEST FLOW MIXING.
SW WIND SHIFTS TO NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING...THE CFP TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IF A WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT THEN POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A TOUCH OF SNOW?

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TURNING MUCH COLDER. NW WIND GUSTY 25-30
MPH.

FRIDAY...FAIR AND COLD.  W-NW WIND GUST 20 MPH.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS
EVENING  AROUND 5,000 FEET SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY. CIRRUS ABOVE
10,000 FEET SHOULD MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM 320-
350 DEGREES AS WELL, TOP WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS BEFORE 23Z. WIND COULD SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWERING CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CLEAR TO START WITH LIGHT WIND
THEN RAPIDLY LOWERING CIGS TO NEAR 5000 FT FROM WEST TO EAST IN
THE 09Z-17Z TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW CHANGING TO ICE
KRDG/KABE/KTTN/KPNE. LIGHT WIND.

MONDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH A GUSTY NW WIND 30 TO POSSIBLY 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR CIRRUS THEN MVFR OR IFR CONDS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE
IN THE DAY CHANGING TO ICE OR RAIN AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER ANY LEFTOVER MORNING IFR OR
MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS? SW WIND SHIFTING NW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED TILL 23Z ON THE OCEAN. SEAS HAVE LOWERED TO
AROUND FIVE FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GET LOWER THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO QUICK TO LOWER THE SEAS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY
AROUND 10 KNOTS.OUTLOOK...

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED.

NW GALE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS MONDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND ONE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND
EVENT IS ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 5 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN MIND
THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T CAUSE
FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR FRI/27TH AND SAT/28TH. NO RECORDS WERE SET
TODAY ALTHOUGH KACY WAS CLOSE...3 DEGREES OFF THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS ON SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27          /  FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900  NO RER  /  9 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1874 / KACY /  7 1934* NO RER  /  2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934  NO RER  / -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963  NO RER  /-10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934* NO RER  /  3 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934  NO RER  /  1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963  NO RER  /  8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993  NO RER  /-15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS (27TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND
SFT`S. WE SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO PRIOR PROJECTIONS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978)*24.9(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7(1905)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

*KACY: 1978 TIED WITH 1934 FOR THE PROJECTED SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY.

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY
2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN
JANUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN
TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1922, WITH
FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.


&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KGED SUNSHINE MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO WARM. A TROUBLE TICKET
IS POSTED ON THIS TEMPERATURE SENSOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 411
NEAR TERM...GAINES 411
SHORT TERM...GAINES 411
LONG TERM...DRAG 411
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 411
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES 411
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO 411
CLIMATE...FRANCK/DRAG 411
EQUIPMENT...GAINES/DRAG 411





000
FXUS61 KPHI 272111
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST ARRIVES
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MOVES TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY.
ITS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
WITH AN ATTENDANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY FILTERS INTO OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES INCORPORATE THE GFS MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES
WHICH SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLED THE SNOWCOVER AND THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE SETS. SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OUTSIDE OF PHILADELPHIA
TONIGHT. CLIMATE SECTION HAS MORE ON THE THREAT FOR ANY RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT BUT COLD DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER 10 MPH, PERHAPS SHIFTING
TO MORE WESTERLY LATE. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ONLY SOME
HIGH CIRRUS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS HAVE BEEN
TO COOL WITH HIGHS IN RECENT SUNNY DAYS, WENT A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER WITH HIGHS DUE TO RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**WINTERY WX EVENTS SLATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AT
  LEAST IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ**

500MB: A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT MOVES
TO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY; THEN A PARTIAL PHASING OF SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
THE PLAINS STATES. THAT TROUGH MOVES TO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY WHILE A
TRAILING SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS NEXT FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

TEMPERATURES: WE`RE IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OUT THE TOP 5 OR 6
COLDEST FEBRUARY IN LONG TERM CLIMAT HISTORY DATING BACK TO THE
1870S; THE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RECORD LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING COUNTRYSIDE NEAR ATLANTIC CITY
AND MAYBE NEAR TRENTON, DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THICK CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES AT 06Z OR 9Z. A LATER ARRIVAL PERMITS A BETTER CHC OF RECORDS.
MONDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT IT COOLS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY IS
PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH POTENTIAL 50S TO
LOWER 60S I-95 SEWD AND CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THEREAFTER, THE 12Z/27 ECMWF ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN
HAS COME INTO GREATER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON ANOTHER COLD SHOT
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK, DAYTIME MAX TEMP COLD BIAS
NOTWITHSTANDING. TEMPS MAY RUN 5 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 50 50 BLEND 12Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT, 12Z/27 MEX MOS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN THE 15Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY-
NEXT FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY (CIRRUS EARLY EVENING)
WITH STRONG COUNTRYSIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE KTTN AND KACY, THEN CLOUDING UP RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNRISE.
LIGHT WIND. RECORDS DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THICK
CLOUD COVER. THE WARMER NAM TEMPS WERE NOT FACTORED INTO THIS
SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST AT ALL. GFS 2M TEMPS ARE A SIGNIFICANT
INDICATOR OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ADVISORY EVENT HIGHLY PROBABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY: PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MIDDAY OR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PHL SEWD A TINY BIT OF SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH WIND. MEANWHILE SNOW ACCUMULATES
NW OF I-95 AND WHILE WE JUST DON`T KNOW HOW MUCH (2 TO 6"--HEAVIEST
SOMEWHERE N OF I-78), WE DO SEE THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUBFREEZING
FOR QUITE A BIT OF TIME SO THAT EVEN IF A WARM ABOVE FREEZING NOSE
POKES NORTHWARD, WE ARE THEN LOOKING AT ICE. LIGHT WIND.

MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLY 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS CONCERN THAT THIS EVENT WILL END UP MOSTLY SNOW AND LESS
FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...SE OF I95 WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF NON FREEZING RAIN AFTER 08Z MONDAY.

ONE CAUSE OF THE PCPN IS AN INSTABILITY BURST HEADED FOR THE DELMARVA.


MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AT SUNRISE QUICKLY END ALONG THE
COAST, THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WITH NW WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG CAA.

MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.   LIGHT WIND.

TUESDAY...THICKENING CLOUDS.  CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE DAY?  LIGHT
SOUTH WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY MIXED WINTRY PCPN QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN I-95
SEWD BUT NW OF I-95 SNOW CHANGES TO ICE AND THEN PROBABLY RAIN.
TIMING UNCERTAIN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHIFT SW LATE. ANOTHER STRONG
INSTABILITY BURST THAT NOSES TO THE DELMARVA.

WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND MILDER. HOW MILD IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH 60 PHL SEWD?, COOLER TO
THE NORTH AND WARMTH DEPENDENT IN PART ON SOUTHWEST FLOW MIXING.
SW WIND SHIFTS TO NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING...THE CFP TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IF A WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT THEN POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A TOUCH OF SNOW?

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TURNING MUCH COLDER. NW WIND GUSTY 25-30
MPH.

FRIDAY...FAIR AND COLD.  W-NW WIND GUST 20 MPH.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS
EVENING  AROUND 5,000 FEET SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY. CIRRUS ABOVE
10,000 FEET SHOULD MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM 320-
350 DEGREES AS WELL, TOP WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS BEFORE 23Z. WIND COULD SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWERING CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CLEAR TO START WITH LIGHT WIND
THEN RAPIDLY LOWERING CIGS TO NEAR 5000 FT FROM WEST TO EAST IN
THE 09Z-17Z TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW CHANGING TO ICE
KRDG/KABE/KTTN/KPNE. LIGHT WIND.

MONDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH A GUSTY NW WIND 30 TO POSSIBLY 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR CIRRUS THEN MVFR OR IFR CONDS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE
IN THE DAY CHANGING TO ICE OR RAIN AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER ANY LEFTOVER MORNING IFR OR
MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS? SW WIND SHIFTING NW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED TILL 23Z ON THE OCEAN. SEAS HAVE LOWERED TO
AROUND FIVE FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GET LOWER THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO QUICK TO LOWER THE SEAS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY
AROUND 10 KNOTS.OUTLOOK...

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED.

NW GALE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS MONDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND ONE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND
EVENT IS ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 5 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN MIND
THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T CAUSE
FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR FRI/27TH AND SAT/28TH. NO RECORDS WERE SET
TODAY ALTHOUGH KACY WAS CLOSE...3 DEGREES OFF THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS ON SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27          /  FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900  NO RER  /  9 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1874 / KACY /  7 1934* NO RER  /  2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934  NO RER  / -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963  NO RER  /-10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934* NO RER  /  3 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934  NO RER  /  1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963  NO RER  /  8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993  NO RER  /-15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS (27TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND
SFT`S. WE SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO PRIOR PROJECTIONS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978)*24.9(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7(1905)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

*KACY: 1978 TIED WITH 1934 FOR THE PROJECTED SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY.

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY
2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN
JANUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN
TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1922, WITH
FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.


&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KGED SUNSHINE MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO WARM. A TROUBLE TICKET
IS POSTED ON THIS TEMPERATURE SENSOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 411
NEAR TERM...GAINES 411
SHORT TERM...GAINES 411
LONG TERM...DRAG 411
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 411
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES 411
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO 411
CLIMATE...FRANCK/DRAG 411
EQUIPMENT...GAINES/DRAG 411




000
FXUS61 KPHI 272111
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND EXTENSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST ARRIVES
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY MOVES TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY.
ITS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY
WITH AN ATTENDANT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLOWLY FILTERS INTO OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AS
CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST MOVE OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WELL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 MPH.
TEMPERATURES INCORPORATE THE GFS MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES
WHICH SEEM TO HAVE BETTER HANDLED THE SNOWCOVER AND THE MET/MAV
GUIDANCE SETS. SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OUTSIDE OF PHILADELPHIA
TONIGHT. CLIMATE SECTION HAS MORE ON THE THREAT FOR ANY RECORDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT BUT COLD DAY ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER 10 MPH, PERHAPS SHIFTING
TO MORE WESTERLY LATE. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ONLY SOME
HIGH CIRRUS IS EXPECTED WITH SOME ADVECTING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS HAVE BEEN
TO COOL WITH HIGHS IN RECENT SUNNY DAYS, WENT A COUPLE DEGREES
WARMER WITH HIGHS DUE TO RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
**WINTERY WX EVENTS SLATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT AT
  LEAST IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ**

500MB: A SHORT WAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT MOVES
TO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY; THEN A PARTIAL PHASING OF SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN
THE PLAINS STATES. THAT TROUGH MOVES TO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY WHILE A
TRAILING SHORT WAVE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. BROAD
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS NEXT FRIDAY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA.

TEMPERATURES: WE`RE IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OUT THE TOP 5 OR 6
COLDEST FEBRUARY IN LONG TERM CLIMAT HISTORY DATING BACK TO THE
1870S; THE CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SUNDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RECORD LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE RADIATIONAL COOLING COUNTRYSIDE NEAR ATLANTIC CITY
AND MAYBE NEAR TRENTON, DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THICK CLOUD COVER
ARRIVES AT 06Z OR 9Z. A LATER ARRIVAL PERMITS A BETTER CHC OF RECORDS.
MONDAY SHOULD BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BUT IT COOLS
AGAIN ON TUESDAY TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEDNESDAY IS
PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH POTENTIAL 50S TO
LOWER 60S I-95 SEWD AND CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. THEREAFTER, THE 12Z/27 ECMWF ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN
HAS COME INTO GREATER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ON ANOTHER COLD SHOT
AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK, DAYTIME MAX TEMP COLD BIAS
NOTWITHSTANDING. TEMPS MAY RUN 5 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 50 50 BLEND 12Z/27
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT, 12Z/27 MEX MOS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN THE 15Z/27 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF
MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY-
NEXT FRIDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY (CIRRUS EARLY EVENING)
WITH STRONG COUNTRYSIDE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND NEAR RECORD LOWS
POSSIBLE KTTN AND KACY, THEN CLOUDING UP RAPIDLY TOWARD SUNRISE.
LIGHT WIND. RECORDS DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THICK
CLOUD COVER. THE WARMER NAM TEMPS WERE NOT FACTORED INTO THIS
SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST AT ALL. GFS 2M TEMPS ARE A SIGNIFICANT
INDICATOR OF RADIATIONAL COOLING.

ADVISORY EVENT HIGHLY PROBABLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY: PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS MIDDAY OR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PHL SEWD A TINY BIT OF SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN. MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTH WIND. MEANWHILE SNOW ACCUMULATES
NW OF I-95 AND WHILE WE JUST DON`T KNOW HOW MUCH (2 TO 6"--HEAVIEST
SOMEWHERE N OF I-78), WE DO SEE THE NAM THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUBFREEZING
FOR QUITE A BIT OF TIME SO THAT EVEN IF A WARM ABOVE FREEZING NOSE
POKES NORTHWARD, WE ARE THEN LOOKING AT ICE. LIGHT WIND.

MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATION IS PROBABLY 5 PM TO MIDNIGHT.

THERE IS CONCERN THAT THIS EVENT WILL END UP MOSTLY SNOW AND LESS
FREEZING RAIN. HOWEVER...SE OF I95 WE SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO
EXPERIENCE A BIT OF NON FREEZING RAIN AFTER 08Z MONDAY.

ONE CAUSE OF THE PCPN IS AN INSTABILITY BURST HEADED FOR THE DELMARVA.


MONDAY...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS AT SUNRISE QUICKLY END ALONG THE
COAST, THEN AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WITH NW WINDS GUSTING
AROUND 35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STRONG CAA.

MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR RADIATIONAL COOLING FOLLOWED BY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT.   LIGHT WIND.

TUESDAY...THICKENING CLOUDS.  CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE DAY?  LIGHT
SOUTH WIND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY MIXED WINTRY PCPN QUICKLY CHANGES TO RAIN I-95
SEWD BUT NW OF I-95 SNOW CHANGES TO ICE AND THEN PROBABLY RAIN.
TIMING UNCERTAIN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHIFT SW LATE. ANOTHER STRONG
INSTABILITY BURST THAT NOSES TO THE DELMARVA.

WEDNESDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND MILDER. HOW MILD IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT POTENTIALLY FLIRTING WITH 60 PHL SEWD?, COOLER TO
THE NORTH AND WARMTH DEPENDENT IN PART ON SOUTHWEST FLOW MIXING.
SW WIND SHIFTS TO NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING...THE CFP TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS. IF A WAVE FORMS ON THE FRONT THEN POSSIBLY
ENDING AS A TOUCH OF SNOW?

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TURNING MUCH COLDER. NW WIND GUSTY 25-30
MPH.

FRIDAY...FAIR AND COLD.  W-NW WIND GUST 20 MPH.
&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS
EVENING  AROUND 5,000 FEET SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY. CIRRUS ABOVE
10,000 FEET SHOULD MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM 320-
350 DEGREES AS WELL, TOP WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS BEFORE 23Z. WIND COULD SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWERING CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR CLEAR TO START WITH LIGHT WIND
THEN RAPIDLY LOWERING CIGS TO NEAR 5000 FT FROM WEST TO EAST IN
THE 09Z-17Z TIME FRAME.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW CHANGING TO
RAIN VCNTY KPHL SOUTH AND EAST AND SNOW CHANGING TO ICE
KRDG/KABE/KTTN/KPNE. LIGHT WIND.

MONDAY...BECOMING VFR WITH A GUSTY NW WIND 30 TO POSSIBLY 35 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR CIRRUS THEN MVFR OR IFR CONDS DEVELOPING IN SNOW LATE
IN THE DAY CHANGING TO ICE OR RAIN AT NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER ANY LEFTOVER MORNING IFR OR
MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS? SW WIND SHIFTING NW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA WILL BE EXTENDED TILL 23Z ON THE OCEAN. SEAS HAVE LOWERED TO
AROUND FIVE FEET AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY GET LOWER THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO QUICK TO LOWER THE SEAS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS AND WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY
AROUND 10 KNOTS.OUTLOOK...

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED.

NW GALE POTENTIAL FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS MONDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TWO PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD,
ONE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING AND A SECOND ONE ON
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE INITIAL EVENT LOOKS TO BE ONE WITH SNOW OR MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIQUID SIDE WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING AFTER AN INITIAL WINTRY START. ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND
EVENT IS ABOUT 5 DAYS OUT, WE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT THAT SOME OF THE
SOLUTIONS WE`RE SEEING ARE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, MELTING SNOW, A FROZEN GROUND, ABOVE NORMAL ICE IN CREEKS,
STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD LEAD TO INCREASED RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

INCREASED FLOW 0N AREA CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS COULD ALSO
START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, CREATE
RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

AGAIN, THIS SECOND EVENT BRINGING WARMTH AND RAIN IS ABOUT 5 DAYS
OUT. THINGS CAN CHANGE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS. KEEP IN MIND
THAT SNOWMELT AND WARMTH, BY THEMSELVES, TYPICALLY DON`T CAUSE
FLOODING. HOW MUCH RAIN WE GET WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MIN TEMP RECORDS FOR FRI/27TH AND SAT/28TH. NO RECORDS WERE SET
TODAY ALTHOUGH KACY WAS CLOSE...3 DEGREES OFF THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS ON SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27          /  FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900  NO RER  /  9 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1874 / KACY /  7 1934* NO RER  /  2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934  NO RER  / -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963  NO RER  /-10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934* NO RER  /  3 1934 RECORD IN JEOPARDY
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934  NO RER  /  1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963  NO RER  /  8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993  NO RER  /-15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980 AND KTTN 8 IN 1972.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD, THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE (F) AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS (27TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND
SFT`S. WE SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO PRIOR PROJECTIONS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978)*24.9(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7(1905)
1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.7(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 19.0(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

*KACY: 1978 TIED WITH 1934 FOR THE PROJECTED SECOND COLDEST FEBRUARY.

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES (F) AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / FEB DEP (F) / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2       / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.9        / 35.3          / -10.4       / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.7        / 35.1          / -10.4       / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 19.0        / 30.7          / -11.7       / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON AVERAGE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER
THAN JANUARY. THE CONVERSE IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE CASE FOR FEBRUARY
2015, AS MEAN TEMPS WILL BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW THOSE OBSERVED IN
JANUARY.

ALSO OF INTEREST, THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN
TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1922, WITH
FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST! OUR OTHER SITES RANK AS FOLLOWS:

PHILADELPHIA PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916), AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.


&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KGED SUNSHINE MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO WARM. A TROUBLE TICKET
IS POSTED ON THIS TEMPERATURE SENSOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 411
NEAR TERM...GAINES 411
SHORT TERM...GAINES 411
LONG TERM...DRAG 411
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 411
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES 411
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO 411
CLIMATE...FRANCK/DRAG 411
EQUIPMENT...GAINES/DRAG 411





000
FXUS61 KPHI 271742
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1242 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO BREAK UP IN MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON.
SO WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE
LATEST RAP AND HRRR MODEL RUNS DO NOT FORM ANY SNOW FLURRIES
EITHER ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
WITH THE 12:30 PM UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AT LEAST ONE MODEL IS DEPICTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. THEREFORE, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS, COMBINED WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO PRIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT STILL
HAVE A SNOW PACK. THUS, WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON
MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED
WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING RIDGING THROUGH MID-
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH RELOADS TO OUR WEST AND ADVANCES THROUGH
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LOTS OF
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD
STILL, NEARLY 20 DEGREES UNDER CLIMO FOR THE LAST DAY OF
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER.


SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE
ABLE TO MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF
THE COAST AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER
POPS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OCCURS, MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
WAK COLD AIR DAMMING OCCURRING, EVEN AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY,
BUT GIVEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND NOT EXPECTING A HUGE
RESPONSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THE GROUND COULD STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MORE SO THEN WE ARE
CURRENTLY CARRYING IN THE FORECAST.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT REMAINS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MOST ZONES WHERE THE WARM NOSE GETS CLOSE BUT DOES NOT
HAVE ENOUGH PUSH TO MOVE THROUGH, PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT USHERING
IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WE ARE CURRENTLY CARRYING A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE POCONOS AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE ANOTHER MIXED EVENT. THIS SYSTEMS COLD FRONT DRAGS THROUGH RATHER
SLOWLY, AS THE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST SHARPENS AND SLOWS IT DOWN A
BIT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION EVENT SO WE CARRY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 5,000 FEET SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING BEFORE
CIRRUS ABOVE 10,000 FEET MOVES IN OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERY WINDS
FROM 320-350 DEGREES AS WELL, TOP WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND COULD SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWERING
CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EXPECTED WITH SNOW TO
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE WE DID RAISE WAVE HEIGHTS BASED ON BUOY
OBS TO BETWEEN FIVE AND SIX FEET. THIS LEADS TO A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE SCA SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY
AND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD START TO DECREASE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCE BEHIND COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

EQUIPMENT: TEMPERATURE AT GED MAY BE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES TO
WARM, TECHS ARE WORKING ON ISSUE. NOT USED IN 12:30 PM UPDATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...STAFF
EQUIPMENT... GAINES





000
FXUS61 KPHI 271742
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1242 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO BREAK UP IN MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON.
SO WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE
LATEST RAP AND HRRR MODEL RUNS DO NOT FORM ANY SNOW FLURRIES
EITHER ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
WITH THE 12:30 PM UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AT LEAST ONE MODEL IS DEPICTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. THEREFORE, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS, COMBINED WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO PRIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT STILL
HAVE A SNOW PACK. THUS, WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON
MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED
WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING RIDGING THROUGH MID-
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH RELOADS TO OUR WEST AND ADVANCES THROUGH
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LOTS OF
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD
STILL, NEARLY 20 DEGREES UNDER CLIMO FOR THE LAST DAY OF
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER.


SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE
ABLE TO MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF
THE COAST AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER
POPS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OCCURS, MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
WAK COLD AIR DAMMING OCCURRING, EVEN AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY,
BUT GIVEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND NOT EXPECTING A HUGE
RESPONSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THE GROUND COULD STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MORE SO THEN WE ARE
CURRENTLY CARRYING IN THE FORECAST.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT REMAINS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MOST ZONES WHERE THE WARM NOSE GETS CLOSE BUT DOES NOT
HAVE ENOUGH PUSH TO MOVE THROUGH, PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT USHERING
IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WE ARE CURRENTLY CARRYING A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE POCONOS AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE ANOTHER MIXED EVENT. THIS SYSTEMS COLD FRONT DRAGS THROUGH RATHER
SLOWLY, AS THE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST SHARPENS AND SLOWS IT DOWN A
BIT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION EVENT SO WE CARRY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 5,000 FEET SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING BEFORE
CIRRUS ABOVE 10,000 FEET MOVES IN OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERY WINDS
FROM 320-350 DEGREES AS WELL, TOP WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND COULD SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWERING
CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EXPECTED WITH SNOW TO
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE WE DID RAISE WAVE HEIGHTS BASED ON BUOY
OBS TO BETWEEN FIVE AND SIX FEET. THIS LEADS TO A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE SCA SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY
AND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD START TO DECREASE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCE BEHIND COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

EQUIPMENT: TEMPERATURE AT GED MAY BE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES TO
WARM, TECHS ARE WORKING ON ISSUE. NOT USED IN 12:30 PM UPDATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...STAFF
EQUIPMENT... GAINES





000
FXUS61 KPHI 271742
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1242 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO BREAK UP IN MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON.
SO WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE
LATEST RAP AND HRRR MODEL RUNS DO NOT FORM ANY SNOW FLURRIES
EITHER ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
WITH THE 12:30 PM UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AT LEAST ONE MODEL IS DEPICTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. THEREFORE, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS, COMBINED WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO PRIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT STILL
HAVE A SNOW PACK. THUS, WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON
MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED
WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING RIDGING THROUGH MID-
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH RELOADS TO OUR WEST AND ADVANCES THROUGH
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LOTS OF
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD
STILL, NEARLY 20 DEGREES UNDER CLIMO FOR THE LAST DAY OF
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER.


SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE
ABLE TO MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF
THE COAST AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER
POPS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OCCURS, MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
WAK COLD AIR DAMMING OCCURRING, EVEN AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY,
BUT GIVEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND NOT EXPECTING A HUGE
RESPONSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THE GROUND COULD STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MORE SO THEN WE ARE
CURRENTLY CARRYING IN THE FORECAST.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT REMAINS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MOST ZONES WHERE THE WARM NOSE GETS CLOSE BUT DOES NOT
HAVE ENOUGH PUSH TO MOVE THROUGH, PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT USHERING
IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WE ARE CURRENTLY CARRYING A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE POCONOS AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE ANOTHER MIXED EVENT. THIS SYSTEMS COLD FRONT DRAGS THROUGH RATHER
SLOWLY, AS THE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST SHARPENS AND SLOWS IT DOWN A
BIT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION EVENT SO WE CARRY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 5,000 FEET SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING BEFORE
CIRRUS ABOVE 10,000 FEET MOVES IN OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERY WINDS
FROM 320-350 DEGREES AS WELL, TOP WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND COULD SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWERING
CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EXPECTED WITH SNOW TO
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE WE DID RAISE WAVE HEIGHTS BASED ON BUOY
OBS TO BETWEEN FIVE AND SIX FEET. THIS LEADS TO A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE SCA SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY
AND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD START TO DECREASE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCE BEHIND COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

EQUIPMENT: TEMPERATURE AT GED MAY BE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES TO
WARM, TECHS ARE WORKING ON ISSUE. NOT USED IN 12:30 PM UPDATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...STAFF
EQUIPMENT... GAINES




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271742
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1242 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO BREAK UP IN MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON.
SO WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THE
LATEST RAP AND HRRR MODEL RUNS DO NOT FORM ANY SNOW FLURRIES
EITHER ACROSS THE REGION. INCREASED TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
WITH THE 12:30 PM UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AT LEAST ONE MODEL IS DEPICTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. THEREFORE, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS, COMBINED WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO PRIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT STILL
HAVE A SNOW PACK. THUS, WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON
MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED
WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING RIDGING THROUGH MID-
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH RELOADS TO OUR WEST AND ADVANCES THROUGH
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LOTS OF
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD
STILL, NEARLY 20 DEGREES UNDER CLIMO FOR THE LAST DAY OF
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER.


SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE
ABLE TO MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF
THE COAST AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER
POPS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OCCURS, MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
WAK COLD AIR DAMMING OCCURRING, EVEN AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY,
BUT GIVEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND NOT EXPECTING A HUGE
RESPONSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THE GROUND COULD STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MORE SO THEN WE ARE
CURRENTLY CARRYING IN THE FORECAST.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT REMAINS ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN MOST ZONES WHERE THE WARM NOSE GETS CLOSE BUT DOES NOT
HAVE ENOUGH PUSH TO MOVE THROUGH, PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT USHERING
IN ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WE ARE CURRENTLY CARRYING A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE POCONOS AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE ANOTHER MIXED EVENT. THIS SYSTEMS COLD FRONT DRAGS THROUGH RATHER
SLOWLY, AS THE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST SHARPENS AND SLOWS IT DOWN A
BIT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION EVENT SO WE CARRY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AROUND 5,000 FEET SHOULD CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING BEFORE
CIRRUS ABOVE 10,000 FEET MOVES IN OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERY WINDS
FROM 320-350 DEGREES AS WELL, TOP WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND COULD SHIFT MORE WESTERLY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWERING
CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EXPECTED WITH SNOW TO
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE WE DID RAISE WAVE HEIGHTS BASED ON BUOY
OBS TO BETWEEN FIVE AND SIX FEET. THIS LEADS TO A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE SCA SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY
AND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD START TO DECREASE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCE BEHIND COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

EQUIPMENT: TEMPERATURE AT GED MAY BE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES TO
WARM, TECHS ARE WORKING ON ISSUE. NOT USED IN 12:30 PM UPDATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...STAFF
EQUIPMENT... GAINES




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271439
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SNOW SHOWERS HAVE FOR THE MOST TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE REGION. A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMANDER OF THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE AND ARE STILL OVER MET/MAV. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DOES APPROACH OUR REGION BY MID DAY, SIMILAR LIMITATIONS WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR ANY PRECIP, BEST CHANCE IN THE POCONOS FOR SOME
FLURRIES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AT LEAST ONE MODEL IS DEPICTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. THEREFORE, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS, COMBINED WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO PRIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT STILL
HAVE A SNOW PACK. THUS, WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON
MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED
WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING RIDGING THROUGH MID-
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH RELOADS TO OUR WEST AND ADVANCES THROUGH
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LOTS OF
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD
STILL, NEARLY 20 DEGREES UNDER CLIMO FOR THE LAST DAY OF
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER.


SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE
ABLE TO MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF
THE COAST AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER
POPS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OCCURS, MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
WAK COLD AIR DAMMING OCCURRING, EVEN AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY,
BUT GIVEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND NOT EXPECTING A HUGE
RESPONSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THE GROUND COULD STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MORESO THEN WE ARE CURRENTLY
CARRYING IN THE FORECAST.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT REMAINS AROSS OUR NORTHERN
MOST ZONES WHERE THE WARM NOSE GETS CLOSE BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO MOVE THROUGH, PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT USHERING IN ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WE ARE CURRENTLY CARRYING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE POCONOS AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE ANOTHER MIXED EVENT. THIS SYSTEMS COLD FRONT DRAGS THROUGH RATHER
SLOWLY, AS THE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST SHARPENS AND SLOWS IT DOWN A
BIT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION EVENT SO WE CARRY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHSN ARE POSSIBLE AT KPHL, KILG, AND KPNE
THROUGH 14Z. ANOTHER CAVEAT IS THAT THE GFS IS INDICATING MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING FOR PRIMARILY THE DELAWARE
VALLEY. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AS IT HAS BEEN OVERESTIMATING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THE LAST FEW DAYS, SO HAVE CHOSEN TO
DISCOUNT THIS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING
THROUGH THE DAY AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EXPECTED WITH SNOW TO
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE WE DID RAISE WAVE HEIGHTS BASED ON BUOY
OBS TO BETWEEN FIVE AND SIX FEET. THIS LEADS TO A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE SCA SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY
AND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD START TO DECREASE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCE BEHIND COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271439
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SNOW SHOWERS HAVE FOR THE MOST TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE REGION. A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMANDER OF THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE AND ARE STILL OVER MET/MAV. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DOES APPROACH OUR REGION BY MID DAY, SIMILAR LIMITATIONS WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR ANY PRECIP, BEST CHANCE IN THE POCONOS FOR SOME
FLURRIES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AT LEAST ONE MODEL IS DEPICTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. THEREFORE, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS, COMBINED WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO PRIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT STILL
HAVE A SNOW PACK. THUS, WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON
MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED
WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING RIDGING THROUGH MID-
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH RELOADS TO OUR WEST AND ADVANCES THROUGH
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LOTS OF
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD
STILL, NEARLY 20 DEGREES UNDER CLIMO FOR THE LAST DAY OF
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER.


SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE
ABLE TO MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF
THE COAST AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER
POPS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OCCURS, MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
WAK COLD AIR DAMMING OCCURRING, EVEN AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY,
BUT GIVEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND NOT EXPECTING A HUGE
RESPONSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THE GROUND COULD STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MORESO THEN WE ARE CURRENTLY
CARRYING IN THE FORECAST.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT REMAINS AROSS OUR NORTHERN
MOST ZONES WHERE THE WARM NOSE GETS CLOSE BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO MOVE THROUGH, PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT USHERING IN ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WE ARE CURRENTLY CARRYING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE POCONOS AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE ANOTHER MIXED EVENT. THIS SYSTEMS COLD FRONT DRAGS THROUGH RATHER
SLOWLY, AS THE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST SHARPENS AND SLOWS IT DOWN A
BIT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION EVENT SO WE CARRY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHSN ARE POSSIBLE AT KPHL, KILG, AND KPNE
THROUGH 14Z. ANOTHER CAVEAT IS THAT THE GFS IS INDICATING MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING FOR PRIMARILY THE DELAWARE
VALLEY. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AS IT HAS BEEN OVERESTIMATING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THE LAST FEW DAYS, SO HAVE CHOSEN TO
DISCOUNT THIS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING
THROUGH THE DAY AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EXPECTED WITH SNOW TO
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE WE DID RAISE WAVE HEIGHTS BASED ON BUOY
OBS TO BETWEEN FIVE AND SIX FEET. THIS LEADS TO A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE SCA SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY
AND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD START TO DECREASE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCE BEHIND COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 271439
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SNOW SHOWERS HAVE FOR THE MOST TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE REGION. A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMANDER OF THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE AND ARE STILL OVER MET/MAV. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DOES APPROACH OUR REGION BY MID DAY, SIMILAR LIMITATIONS WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR ANY PRECIP, BEST CHANCE IN THE POCONOS FOR SOME
FLURRIES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AT LEAST ONE MODEL IS DEPICTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. THEREFORE, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS, COMBINED WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO PRIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT STILL
HAVE A SNOW PACK. THUS, WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON
MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED
WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING RIDGING THROUGH MID-
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH RELOADS TO OUR WEST AND ADVANCES THROUGH
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LOTS OF
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD
STILL, NEARLY 20 DEGREES UNDER CLIMO FOR THE LAST DAY OF
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER.


SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE
ABLE TO MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF
THE COAST AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER
POPS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OCCURS, MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
WAK COLD AIR DAMMING OCCURRING, EVEN AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY,
BUT GIVEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND NOT EXPECTING A HUGE
RESPONSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THE GROUND COULD STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MORESO THEN WE ARE CURRENTLY
CARRYING IN THE FORECAST.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT REMAINS AROSS OUR NORTHERN
MOST ZONES WHERE THE WARM NOSE GETS CLOSE BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO MOVE THROUGH, PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT USHERING IN ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WE ARE CURRENTLY CARRYING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE POCONOS AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE ANOTHER MIXED EVENT. THIS SYSTEMS COLD FRONT DRAGS THROUGH RATHER
SLOWLY, AS THE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST SHARPENS AND SLOWS IT DOWN A
BIT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION EVENT SO WE CARRY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHSN ARE POSSIBLE AT KPHL, KILG, AND KPNE
THROUGH 14Z. ANOTHER CAVEAT IS THAT THE GFS IS INDICATING MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING FOR PRIMARILY THE DELAWARE
VALLEY. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AS IT HAS BEEN OVERESTIMATING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THE LAST FEW DAYS, SO HAVE CHOSEN TO
DISCOUNT THIS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING
THROUGH THE DAY AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EXPECTED WITH SNOW TO
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE WE DID RAISE WAVE HEIGHTS BASED ON BUOY
OBS TO BETWEEN FIVE AND SIX FEET. THIS LEADS TO A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE SCA SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY
AND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD START TO DECREASE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCE BEHIND COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271439
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SNOW SHOWERS HAVE FOR THE MOST TAPERED OFF ACROSS THE REGION. A
MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE REMANDER OF THE
DAY. TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE AND ARE STILL OVER MET/MAV. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DOES APPROACH OUR REGION BY MID DAY, SIMILAR LIMITATIONS WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR ANY PRECIP, BEST CHANCE IN THE POCONOS FOR SOME
FLURRIES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AT LEAST ONE MODEL IS DEPICTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. THEREFORE, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS, COMBINED WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO PRIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT STILL
HAVE A SNOW PACK. THUS, WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON
MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED
WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING RIDGING THROUGH MID-
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH RELOADS TO OUR WEST AND ADVANCES THROUGH
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LOTS OF
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD
STILL, NEARLY 20 DEGREES UNDER CLIMO FOR THE LAST DAY OF
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER.


SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE
ABLE TO MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF
THE COAST AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER
POPS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OCCURS, MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
WAK COLD AIR DAMMING OCCURRING, EVEN AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY,
BUT GIVEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND NOT EXPECTING A HUGE
RESPONSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THE GROUND COULD STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MORESO THEN WE ARE CURRENTLY
CARRYING IN THE FORECAST.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT REMAINS AROSS OUR NORTHERN
MOST ZONES WHERE THE WARM NOSE GETS CLOSE BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO MOVE THROUGH, PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT USHERING IN ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WE ARE CURRENTLY CARRYING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE POCONOS AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE ANOTHER MIXED EVENT. THIS SYSTEMS COLD FRONT DRAGS THROUGH RATHER
SLOWLY, AS THE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST SHARPENS AND SLOWS IT DOWN A
BIT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION EVENT SO WE CARRY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHSN ARE POSSIBLE AT KPHL, KILG, AND KPNE
THROUGH 14Z. ANOTHER CAVEAT IS THAT THE GFS IS INDICATING MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING FOR PRIMARILY THE DELAWARE
VALLEY. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AS IT HAS BEEN OVERESTIMATING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THE LAST FEW DAYS, SO HAVE CHOSEN TO
DISCOUNT THIS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING
THROUGH THE DAY AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EXPECTED WITH SNOW TO
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE MORNING UPDATE WE DID RAISE WAVE HEIGHTS BASED ON BUOY
OBS TO BETWEEN FIVE AND SIX FEET. THIS LEADS TO A HIGHER
CONFIDENCE SCA SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TODAY
AND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD START TO DECREASE
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCE BEHIND COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 271300
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
800 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7:45 AM UPDATE: SEVERAL REPORTS OF SNOW AROUND 1/2 INCH HAVE COME
IN THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PA WITH THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILMINGTON DE HAD .2 OF NEW SNOW. THIS LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PRESS INTO CENTRAL NJ AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL DE TODAY.
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE AND PLACED ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OR TWO FOR THOSE AREAS.


RADAR MAY STILL BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION AS A VERY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AS INDICATED BY LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS,

A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DOES APPROACH OUR REGION BY MID
DAY, SIMILAR LIMITATIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ANY PRECIP, BEST
CHANCE IN THE POCONOS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS OVERESTIMATED THE IMPACT OF THE SNOW PACK ON THE DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES, SO WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGH RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND FREEZING IN SOUTHERN
DELAWARE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AT LEAST ONE MODEL IS DEPICTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. THEREFORE, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS, COMBINED WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO PRIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT STILL
HAVE A SNOW PACK. THUS, WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON
MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED
WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING RIDGING THROUGH MID-
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH RELOADS TO OUR WEST AND ADVANCES THROUGH
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LOTS OF
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD
STILL, NEARLY 20 DEGREES UNDER CLIMO FOR THE LAST DAY OF
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER.


SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE
ABLE TO MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF
THE COAST AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER
POPS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OCCURS, MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
WAK COLD AIR DAMMING OCCURRING, EVEN AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY,
BUT GIVEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND NOT EXPECTING A HUGE
REPSONSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THE GROUND COULD STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MORESO THEN WE ARE CURRENTLY
CARRYING IN THE FORECAST.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT REMAINS AROSS OUR NORTHERN
MOST ZONES WHERE THE WARM NOSE GETS CLOSE BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO MOVE THROUGH, PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT USHERING IN ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WE ARE CURRENTLY CARRYING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE POCONOS AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE ANOTHER MIXED EVENT. THIS SYSTEMS COLD FRONT DRAGS THROUGH RATHER
SLOWLY, AS THE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST SHARPENS AND SLOWS IT DOWN A
BIT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION EVENT SO WE CARRY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHSN ARE POSSIBLE AT KPHL, KILG, AND KPNE
THROUGH 14Z. ANOTHER CAVEAT IS THAT THE GFS IS INDICATING MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING FOR PRIMARILY THE DELAWARE
VALLEY. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AS IT HAS BEEN OVERESTIMATING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THE LAST FEW DAYS, SO HAVE CHOSEN TO
DISCOUNT THIS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING
THROUGH THE DAY AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EXPECTED WITH SNOW TO
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY AND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THEY DO, WAVE
HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCE BEHIND COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 271300
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
800 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7:45 AM UPDATE: SEVERAL REPORTS OF SNOW AROUND 1/2 INCH HAVE COME
IN THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PA WITH THE SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WILMINGTON DE HAD .2 OF NEW SNOW. THIS LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL PRESS INTO CENTRAL NJ AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL DE TODAY.
INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE AND PLACED ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH OR TWO FOR THOSE AREAS.


RADAR MAY STILL BE OVERDOING PRECIPITATION AS A VERY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AS INDICATED BY LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS,

A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DOES APPROACH OUR REGION BY MID
DAY, SIMILAR LIMITATIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ANY PRECIP, BEST
CHANCE IN THE POCONOS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS OVERESTIMATED THE IMPACT OF THE SNOW PACK ON THE DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES, SO WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGH RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND FREEZING IN SOUTHERN
DELAWARE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AT LEAST ONE MODEL IS DEPICTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. THEREFORE, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS, COMBINED WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO PRIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT STILL
HAVE A SNOW PACK. THUS, WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON
MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED
WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING RIDGING THROUGH MID-
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH RELOADS TO OUR WEST AND ADVANCES THROUGH
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LOTS OF
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD
STILL, NEARLY 20 DEGREES UNDER CLIMO FOR THE LAST DAY OF
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER.


SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE
ABLE TO MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF
THE COAST AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER
POPS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OCCURS, MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
WAK COLD AIR DAMMING OCCURRING, EVEN AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY,
BUT GIVEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND NOT EXPECTING A HUGE
REPSONSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THE GROUND COULD STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MORESO THEN WE ARE CURRENTLY
CARRYING IN THE FORECAST.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT REMAINS AROSS OUR NORTHERN
MOST ZONES WHERE THE WARM NOSE GETS CLOSE BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO MOVE THROUGH, PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT USHERING IN ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WE ARE CURRENTLY CARRYING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE POCONOS AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE ANOTHER MIXED EVENT. THIS SYSTEMS COLD FRONT DRAGS THROUGH RATHER
SLOWLY, AS THE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST SHARPENS AND SLOWS IT DOWN A
BIT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION EVENT SO WE CARRY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHSN ARE POSSIBLE AT KPHL, KILG, AND KPNE
THROUGH 14Z. ANOTHER CAVEAT IS THAT THE GFS IS INDICATING MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING FOR PRIMARILY THE DELAWARE
VALLEY. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AS IT HAS BEEN OVERESTIMATING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THE LAST FEW DAYS, SO HAVE CHOSEN TO
DISCOUNT THIS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING
THROUGH THE DAY AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EXPECTED WITH SNOW TO
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY AND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THEY DO, WAVE
HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCE BEHIND COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271150
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
650 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL PA ARE STRUGGLING TO CROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. IN ADDITION, A VERY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AS INDICATED BY LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS, MEANS THAT EVEN
WITH THE FEW LIGHT RADAR ECHOS IN OUR CWA, VERY LITTLE IS REACHING
THE GROUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, SO WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DOES APPROACH OUR REGION BY MID DAY, SIMILAR LIMITATIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR ANY PRECIP. THEREFORE, DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DELAWARE VALLEY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS OVERESTIMATED THE IMPACT OF THE SNOW PACK ON THE DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES, SO WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGH RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND FREEZING IN SOUTHERN
DELAWARE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AT LEAST ONE MODEL IS DEPICTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. THEREFORE, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS, COMBINED WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO PRIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT STILL
HAVE A SNOW PACK. THUS, WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON
MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED
WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING RIDGING THROUGH MID-
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH RELOADS TO OUR WEST AND ADVANCES THROUGH
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LOTS OF
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD
STILL, NEARLY 20 DEGREES UNDER CLIMO FOR THE LAST DAY OF
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER.


SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE
ABLE TO MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF
THE COAST AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER
POPS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OCCURS, MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
WAK COLD AIR DAMMING OCCURRING, EVEN AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY,
BUT GIVEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND NOT EXPECTING A HUGE
REPSONSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THE GROUND COULD STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MORESO THEN WE ARE CURRENTLY
CARRYING IN THE FORECAST.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT REMAINS AROSS OUR NORTHERN
MOST ZONES WHERE THE WARM NOSE GETS CLOSE BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO MOVE THROUGH, PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT USHERING IN ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WE ARE CURRENTLY CARRYING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE POCONOS AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE ANOTHER MIXED EVENT. THIS SYSTEMS COLD FRONT DRAGS THROUGH RATHER
SLOWLY, AS THE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST SHARPENS AND SLOWS IT DOWN A
BIT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION EVENT SO WE CARRY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHSN ARE POSSIBLE AT KPHL, KILG, AND KPNE
THROUGH 14Z. ANOTHER CAVEAT IS THAT THE GFS IS INDICATING MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING FOR PRIMARILY THE DELAWARE
VALLEY. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AS IT HAS BEEN OVERESTIMATING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THE LAST FEW DAYS, SO HAVE CHOSEN TO
DISCOUNT THIS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING
THROUGH THE DAY AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EXPECTED WITH SNOW TO
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY AND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THEY DO, WAVE
HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCE BEHIND COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271150
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
650 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL PA ARE STRUGGLING TO CROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. IN ADDITION, A VERY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AS INDICATED BY LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS, MEANS THAT EVEN
WITH THE FEW LIGHT RADAR ECHOS IN OUR CWA, VERY LITTLE IS REACHING
THE GROUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, SO WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DOES APPROACH OUR REGION BY MID DAY, SIMILAR LIMITATIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR ANY PRECIP. THEREFORE, DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DELAWARE VALLEY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS OVERESTIMATED THE IMPACT OF THE SNOW PACK ON THE DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES, SO WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGH RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND FREEZING IN SOUTHERN
DELAWARE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AT LEAST ONE MODEL IS DEPICTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. THEREFORE, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS, COMBINED WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO PRIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT STILL
HAVE A SNOW PACK. THUS, WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON
MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED
WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING RIDGING THROUGH MID-
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH RELOADS TO OUR WEST AND ADVANCES THROUGH
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LOTS OF
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD
STILL, NEARLY 20 DEGREES UNDER CLIMO FOR THE LAST DAY OF
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER.


SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE
ABLE TO MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF
THE COAST AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER
POPS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OCCURS, MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
WAK COLD AIR DAMMING OCCURRING, EVEN AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY,
BUT GIVEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND NOT EXPECTING A HUGE
REPSONSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THE GROUND COULD STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MORESO THEN WE ARE CURRENTLY
CARRYING IN THE FORECAST.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT REMAINS AROSS OUR NORTHERN
MOST ZONES WHERE THE WARM NOSE GETS CLOSE BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO MOVE THROUGH, PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT USHERING IN ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WE ARE CURRENTLY CARRYING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE POCONOS AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE ANOTHER MIXED EVENT. THIS SYSTEMS COLD FRONT DRAGS THROUGH RATHER
SLOWLY, AS THE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST SHARPENS AND SLOWS IT DOWN A
BIT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION EVENT SO WE CARRY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF IFR AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHSN ARE POSSIBLE AT KPHL, KILG, AND KPNE
THROUGH 14Z. ANOTHER CAVEAT IS THAT THE GFS IS INDICATING MVFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING FOR PRIMARILY THE DELAWARE
VALLEY. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AS IT HAS BEEN OVERESTIMATING THE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS THE LAST FEW DAYS, SO HAVE CHOSEN TO
DISCOUNT THIS FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING
THROUGH THE DAY AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EXPECTED WITH SNOW TO
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY AND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THEY DO, WAVE
HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCE BEHIND COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 270924
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
424 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL PA ARE STRUGGLING TO CROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. IN ADDITION, A VERY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AS INDICATED BY LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS, MEANS THAT EVEN
WITH THE FEW LIGHT RADAR ECHOS IN OUR CWA, VERY LITTLE IS REACHING
THE GROUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, SO WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DOES APPROACH OUR REGION BY MID DAY, SIMILAR LIMITATIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR ANY PRECIP. THEREFORE, DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DELAWARE VALLEY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS OVERESTIMATED THE IMPACT OF THE SNOW PACK ON THE DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES, SO WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGH RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND FREEZING IN SOUTHERN
DELAWARE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AT LEAST ONE MODEL IS DEPICTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. THEREFORE, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS, COMBINED WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO PRIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT STILL
HAVE A SNOW PACK. THUS, WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON
MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED
WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING RIDGING THROUGH MID-
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH RELOADS TO OUR WEST AND ADVANCES THROUGH
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LOTS OF
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD
STILL, NEARLY 20 DEGREES UNDER CLIMO FOR THE LAST DAY OF
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER.


SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE
ABLE TO MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF
THE COAST AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER
POPS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OCCURS, MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
WAK COLD AIR DAMMING OCCURRING, EVEN AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY,
BUT GIVEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND NOT EXPECTING A HUGE
REPSONSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THE GROUND COULD STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MORESO THEN WE ARE CURRENTLY
CARRYING IN THE FORECAST.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT REMAINS AROSS OUR NORTHERN
MOST ZONES WHERE THE WARM NOSE GETS CLOSE BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO MOVE THROUGH, PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT USHERING IN ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WE ARE CURRENTLY CARRYING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE POCONOS AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE ANOTHER MIXED EVENT. THIS SYSTEMS COLD FRONT DRAGS THROUGH RATHER
SLOWLY, AS THE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST SHARPENS AND SLOWS IT DOWN A
BIT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION EVENT SO WE CARRY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF -SHSN AT KRDG AND KABE BEFORE 12Z, AND AGAIN AROUND MID
DAY, BUT THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
ANOTHER CAVEAT IS THAT THE GFS IS INDICATING MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING FOR PRIMARILY THE DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS
SEEMS UNLIKELY AS IT HAS BEEN OVERESTIMATING THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS THE LAST FEW DAYS, SO HAVE CHOSEN TO DISCOUNT THIS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY AND
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EXPECTED WITH SNOW TO
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY AND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THEY DO, WAVE
HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCE BEHIND COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 270924
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
424 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN EXTENSIVE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND. AS THE HIGH
SLIPS OFF THE COAST ON SUNDAY A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
REGION AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR WEST AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL PA ARE STRUGGLING TO CROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TO MAKE IT INTO OUR CWA. IN ADDITION, A VERY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER AS INDICATED BY LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS, MEANS THAT EVEN
WITH THE FEW LIGHT RADAR ECHOS IN OUR CWA, VERY LITTLE IS REACHING
THE GROUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, SO WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DOES APPROACH OUR REGION BY MID DAY, SIMILAR LIMITATIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR ANY PRECIP. THEREFORE, DECREASED POPS SLIGHTLY
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DELAWARE VALLEY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT RECENT
GUIDANCE HAS OVERESTIMATED THE IMPACT OF THE SNOW PACK ON THE DAY
TIME TEMPERATURES, SO WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH HIGH RANGING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND FREEZING IN SOUTHERN
DELAWARE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AT LEAST ONE MODEL IS DEPICTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EAST TOWARD THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW. THEREFORE, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS, COMBINED WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO PRIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS THAT STILL
HAVE A SNOW PACK. THUS, WENT SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE
SCALE FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON
MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED
WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DEEPENING RIDGING THROUGH MID-
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH RELOADS TO OUR WEST AND ADVANCES THROUGH
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR LOTS OF
SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER COLD
STILL, NEARLY 20 DEGREES UNDER CLIMO FOR THE LAST DAY OF
METEOROLOGICAL WINTER.


SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION VERY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE
ABLE TO MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF
THE COAST AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER
POPS UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A
WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN OCCURS, MOSTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE SOME
WAK COLD AIR DAMMING OCCURRING, EVEN AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY,
BUT GIVEN THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND NOT EXPECTING A HUGE
REPSONSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS THE GROUND COULD STILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN...MORESO THEN WE ARE CURRENTLY
CARRYING IN THE FORECAST.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN ALL SNOW EVENT REMAINS AROSS OUR NORTHERN
MOST ZONES WHERE THE WARM NOSE GETS CLOSE BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO MOVE THROUGH, PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT USHERING IN ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLDER AIR. WE ARE CURRENTLY CARRYING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACROSS THE POCONOS AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE ANOTHER MIXED EVENT. THIS SYSTEMS COLD FRONT DRAGS THROUGH RATHER
SLOWLY, AS THE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST SHARPENS AND SLOWS IT DOWN A
BIT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A LONGER DURATION EVENT SO WE CARRY CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF -SHSN AT KRDG AND KABE BEFORE 12Z, AND AGAIN AROUND MID
DAY, BUT THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
ANOTHER CAVEAT IS THAT THE GFS IS INDICATING MVFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING FOR PRIMARILY THE DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS
SEEMS UNLIKELY AS IT HAS BEEN OVERESTIMATING THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS THE LAST FEW DAYS, SO HAVE CHOSEN TO DISCOUNT THIS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE, SHOULD SEE SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY AND
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY - SUNDAY MORNING...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EXPECTED WITH SNOW TO
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE ALREADY SUBSIDED AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
TODAY AND TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THEY DO, WAVE
HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCE BEHIND COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ON MONDAY WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270221
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
921 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THIS UPDATE MAINLY TO TIME THE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. AT LEAST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, ITS THE POCONOS FIRST AND THEN AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES CLOSER, IT SHOULD SPREAD DEEPER INTO OUR CWA.
BASED ON THE RADAR AND OBS, THE WETTER (THE ONES THAT HAVE SOME
MEASURABLE) MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE LOOKING BETTER. WE DID UP MIN
TEMPS ABOUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES, LESS IN DELMARVA WHERE IT SNOWED
HEAVIER THIS MORNING.

THE LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION THURSDAY HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. THE TIME OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE MAY BE VARIABLE, FROM THE
EVENING WEST TILL TOWARD DAYBREAK FURTHER EAST. CLOUDS AND THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO LEAD TO SLIGHTLY RISING
TEMPERATURES WEST OF PHL OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH
THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENTER THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE POPS AROUND PHILADELPHIA BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CLOUDS AND FLURRIES FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD CLEAR
OUT DURING THE MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE UNDER 1/2 INCH IN
THE AREAS THAT DO SEE SNOW PRIMARILY FROM PHILADELPHIA TO THE
NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE. AREAS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND
JERSEY SHORE MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING AS THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS DURING
THE MORNING. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES LOOKED A FEW DEGREES TO
CHILLY WHILE THE MET/MAV PERHAPS A DEGREE TO WARM OVERALL. TEMPS
ONLY IN THE 20`S TO LOW 30`S ACROSS THE REGION FOR HIGHS WITH CAA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER H5 TROUGH AND A WEAK SFC LOW...ALONG WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTS...WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IT WILL
AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO EARLY MONDAY. P-TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW
WITH THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. A BRIEF MIX WITH SOME SLEET OR PERHAPS SOME FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE LOOKED AT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. TEMPS STILL MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON.

MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

ANOTHER LOW...A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...WILL TRACK
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATER TUE
AND REMAIN INTO THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK NEAR NORMAL TUE AND
PROBABLY ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY RAIN S/E AND SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN N/W FOR THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS PREDICTING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARD MORNING MAINLY IN
FOR TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FOR THIS EVENING...VFR WITH MAINLY A MID LEVEL VFR CIG. AT KACY
AND KMIV, THEY WILL START WITH NO CIG BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA. LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CIGS LOWERING WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. LATE AT KRDG
AND KABE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VFR STRATOCU BASED CIGS. THE CHANCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTS EARLY TO THE KPHL
METRO AREA, I95 CORRIDOR AIRPORTS. WE HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE OF
THIS OCCURRING THAN AT FARTHER UPSTREAM AIRPORTS IN THE OVERNIGHT.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS AT KACY
AND KMIV ARE AN AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE DAYTIME PERIOD.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH A STRATOCU BASED CIG CONTINUING.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS. NOT
MUCH GUSTINESS IS ANTICIPATED. LATE WE ARE PREDICTING THE VFR CIG
TO DISSIPATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...VFR EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU MON...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SNOW
EXPECTED AT TIMES. MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE RUNNING SEVERAL FEET BELOW CURRENT
LEVELS FOR THE SEA HEIGHT. THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY WITH NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR FIVE FEET LIKELY
THROUGH 20Z FRIDAY WHICH RESULTS IN AN EXTENSION OF THE SCA ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TILL 20Z FRIDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN DELAWARE BAY
HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KNOTS SO THE SCA WILL BE CANCELLED IN THE BAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS FRIDAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...POSSIBLE LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO SEAS ON THE
OCEAN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG/GAINES
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 262328
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
628 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ONLY CHANGES IN THE NEAR NEAR TERM WAS TO FOLLOW THE ECHOES AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WHERE OVERHEAD AND UPSTREAM ECHOES
SHOWED SNOW FALLING FROM A MID CLOUD DECK. MOST OF THIS IS
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. WE REMOVED THE LOW POPS
FROM THE SERN PART OF OUR CWA IN THE EVENING BASED ON ABOVE
TRAJECTORY. MOST OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN CLOSE TO
EXPECTATIONS.

THE LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION TODAY HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. THE TIME OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE MAY BE VARIABLE, FROM THE
EVENING WEST TILL TOWARD DAYBREAK FURTHER EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERALL SHOULD RUN COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION BUT NOT A LOT COLDER
DUE TO THE CLOUDS. CLOUDS AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURES WEST OF PHL OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENTER THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS AROUND PHILADELPHIA
BY SUNRISE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 10`S FOR MOST WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE POCONOS. LAV GUIDANCE USED FOR THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR WARMER INITIAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CLOUDS AND FLURRIES FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD CLEAR
OUT DURING THE MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE UNDER 1/2 INCH IN
THE AREAS THAT DO SEE SNOW PRIMARILY FROM PHILADELPHIA TO THE
NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE. AREAS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND
JERSEY SHORE MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING AS THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS DURING
THE MORNING. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES LOOKED A FEW DEGREES TO
CHILLY WHILE THE MET/MAV PERHAPS A DEGREE TO WARM OVERALL. TEMPS
ONLY IN THE 20`S TO LOW 30`S ACROSS THE REGION FOR HIGHS WITH CAA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER H5 TROUGH AND A WEAK SFC LOW...ALONG WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTS...WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IT WILL
AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO EARLY MONDAY. P-TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW
WITH THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. A BRIEF MIX WITH SOME SLEET OR PERHAPS SOME FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE LOOKED AT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. TEMPS STILL MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON.

MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

ANOTHER LOW...A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...WILL TRACK
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATER TUE
AND REMAIN INTO THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK NEAR NORMAL TUE AND
PROBABLY ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY RAIN S/E AND SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN N/W FOR THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS PREDICTING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARD MORNING MAINLY IN
FOR TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FOR THIS EVENING...VFR WITH MAINLY A MID LEVEL VFR CIG. AT KACY
AND KMIV, THEY WILL START WITH NO CIG BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA. LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CIGS LOWERING WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. LATE AT KRDG
AND KABE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VFR STRATOCU BASED CIGS. THE CHANCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTS EARLY TO THE KPHL
METRO AREA, I95 CORRIDOR AIRPORTS. WE HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE OF
THIS OCCURRING THAN AT FARTHER UPSTREAM AIRPORTS IN THE OVERNIGHT.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS AT KACY
AND KMIV ARE AN AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE DAYTIME PERIOD.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH A STRATOCU BASED CIG CONTINUING.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS. NOT
MUCH GUSTINESS IS ANTICIPATED. LATE WE ARE PREDICTING THE VFR CIG
TO DISSIPATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...VFR EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU MON...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SNOW
EXPECTED AT TIMES. MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE RUNNING SEVERAL FEET BELOW CURRENT
LEVELS FOR THE SEA HEIGHT. THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY WITH NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR FIVE FEET LIKELY
THROUGH 20Z FRIDAY WHICH RESULTS IN AN EXTENSION OF THE SCA ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TILL 20Z FRIDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN DELAWARE BAY
HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KNOTS SO THE SCA WILL BE CANCELLED IN THE BAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS FRIDAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG/GAINES
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 262328
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
628 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ONLY CHANGES IN THE NEAR NEAR TERM WAS TO FOLLOW THE ECHOES AND
KEEP A CHANCE OF FLURRIES WHERE OVERHEAD AND UPSTREAM ECHOES
SHOWED SNOW FALLING FROM A MID CLOUD DECK. MOST OF THIS IS
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. WE REMOVED THE LOW POPS
FROM THE SERN PART OF OUR CWA IN THE EVENING BASED ON ABOVE
TRAJECTORY. MOST OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN CLOSE TO
EXPECTATIONS.

THE LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION TODAY HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. THE TIME OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE MAY BE VARIABLE, FROM THE
EVENING WEST TILL TOWARD DAYBREAK FURTHER EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERALL SHOULD RUN COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION BUT NOT A LOT COLDER
DUE TO THE CLOUDS. CLOUDS AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURES WEST OF PHL OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENTER THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS AROUND PHILADELPHIA
BY SUNRISE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 10`S FOR MOST WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE POCONOS. LAV GUIDANCE USED FOR THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR WARMER INITIAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CLOUDS AND FLURRIES FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD CLEAR
OUT DURING THE MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE UNDER 1/2 INCH IN
THE AREAS THAT DO SEE SNOW PRIMARILY FROM PHILADELPHIA TO THE
NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE. AREAS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND
JERSEY SHORE MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING AS THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS DURING
THE MORNING. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES LOOKED A FEW DEGREES TO
CHILLY WHILE THE MET/MAV PERHAPS A DEGREE TO WARM OVERALL. TEMPS
ONLY IN THE 20`S TO LOW 30`S ACROSS THE REGION FOR HIGHS WITH CAA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER H5 TROUGH AND A WEAK SFC LOW...ALONG WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTS...WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IT WILL
AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO EARLY MONDAY. P-TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW
WITH THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. A BRIEF MIX WITH SOME SLEET OR PERHAPS SOME FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE LOOKED AT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. TEMPS STILL MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON.

MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

ANOTHER LOW...A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...WILL TRACK
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATER TUE
AND REMAIN INTO THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK NEAR NORMAL TUE AND
PROBABLY ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY RAIN S/E AND SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN N/W FOR THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS PREDICTING SOME MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARD MORNING MAINLY IN
FOR TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

FOR THIS EVENING...VFR WITH MAINLY A MID LEVEL VFR CIG. AT KACY
AND KMIV, THEY WILL START WITH NO CIG BEFORE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA. LIGHT NORTH WINDS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CIGS LOWERING WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. LATE AT KRDG
AND KABE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VFR STRATOCU BASED CIGS. THE CHANCE
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS SHIFTS EARLY TO THE KPHL
METRO AREA, I95 CORRIDOR AIRPORTS. WE HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE OF
THIS OCCURRING THAN AT FARTHER UPSTREAM AIRPORTS IN THE OVERNIGHT.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS AT KACY
AND KMIV ARE AN AVERAGE FOR THE ENTIRE DAYTIME PERIOD.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON...VFR WITH A STRATOCU BASED CIG CONTINUING.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS. NOT
MUCH GUSTINESS IS ANTICIPATED. LATE WE ARE PREDICTING THE VFR CIG
TO DISSIPATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...VFR EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU MON...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SNOW
EXPECTED AT TIMES. MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE RUNNING SEVERAL FEET BELOW CURRENT
LEVELS FOR THE SEA HEIGHT. THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY WITH NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR FIVE FEET LIKELY
THROUGH 20Z FRIDAY WHICH RESULTS IN AN EXTENSION OF THE SCA ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TILL 20Z FRIDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN DELAWARE BAY
HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KNOTS SO THE SCA WILL BE CANCELLED IN THE BAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS FRIDAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG/GAINES
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 262041
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION TODAY HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. THE TIME OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE MAY BE VARIABLE, FROM THE
EVENING WEST TILL TOWARD DAYBREAK FURTHER EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERALL SHOULD RUN COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION BUT NOT A LOT COLDER
DUE TO THE CLOUDS. CLOUDS AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURES WEST OF PHL OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENTER THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS AROUND PHILADELPHIA
BY SUNRISE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 10`S FOR MOST WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE POCONOS. LAV GUIDANCE USED FOR THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR WARMER INITIAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CLOUDS AND FLURRIES FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD CLEAR
OUT DURING THE MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE UNDER 1/2 INCH IN
THE AREAS THAT DO SEE SNOW PRIMARILY FROM PHILADELPHIA TO THE
NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE. AREAS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND
JERSEY SHORE MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING AS THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS DURING
THE MORNING. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES LOOKED A FEW DEGREES TO
CHILLY WHILE THE MET/MAV PERHAPS A DEGREE TO WARM OVERALL. TEMPS
ONLY IN THE 20`S TO LOW 30`S ACROSS THE REGION FOR HIGHS WITH CAA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER H5 TROUGH AND A WEAK SFC LOW...ALONG WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTS...WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IT WILL
AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO EARLY MONDAY. P-TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW
WITH THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. A BRIEF MIX WITH SOME SLEET OR PERHAPS SOME FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE LOOKED AT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. TEMPS STILL MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON.

MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

ANOTHER LOW...A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...WILL TRACK
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATER TUE
AND REMAIN INTO THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK NEAR NORMAL TUE AND
PROBABLY ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY RAIN S/E AND SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN N/W FOR THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT... VFR TO START WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SHIFTING
MORE NORTHERLY. MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING AROUND 06Z WEST AND 09Z
EAST WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BY 11Z ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW. LITTLE
OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.

FRIDAY... MVFR IN THE MORNING WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ENDING BY
16Z AT ALL TAF SITES, LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF GUSTS EXPECTED ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...VFR EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SNOW
   EXPECTED AT TIMES.
MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE RUNNING SEVERAL FEET BELOW CURRENT
LEVELS FOR THE SEA HEIGHT. THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY WITH NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR FIVE FEET LIKELY
THROUGH 20Z FRIDAY WHICH RESULTS IN AN EXTENSION OF THE SCA ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TILL 20Z FRIDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN DELAWARE BAY
HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KNOTS SO THE SCA WILL BE CANCELLED IN THE BAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS FRIDAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...



&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES
SHORT TERM...DRAG/GAINES
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 262041
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS FRONTS WILL AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. ANOTHER STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION TODAY HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. THE TIME OF THE LOW TEMPERATURE MAY BE VARIABLE, FROM THE
EVENING WEST TILL TOWARD DAYBREAK FURTHER EAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
OVERALL SHOULD RUN COOLER THAN THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE DUE TO
SNOWCOVER ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION BUT NOT A LOT COLDER
DUE TO THE CLOUDS. CLOUDS AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURES WEST OF PHL OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENTER THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS AROUND PHILADELPHIA
BY SUNRISE. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 10`S FOR MOST WITH SOME SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE POCONOS. LAV GUIDANCE USED FOR THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR WARMER INITIAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
ANY CLOUDS AND FLURRIES FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD CLEAR
OUT DURING THE MORNING. TOTAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE UNDER 1/2 INCH IN
THE AREAS THAT DO SEE SNOW PRIMARILY FROM PHILADELPHIA TO THE
NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE. AREAS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND
JERSEY SHORE MAY NOT SEE ANYTHING AS THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS DURING
THE MORNING. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES LOOKED A FEW DEGREES TO
CHILLY WHILE THE MET/MAV PERHAPS A DEGREE TO WARM OVERALL. TEMPS
ONLY IN THE 20`S TO LOW 30`S ACROSS THE REGION FOR HIGHS WITH CAA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING.

AN APPROACHING UPPER H5 TROUGH AND A WEAK SFC LOW...ALONG WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTS...WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND IT WILL
AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO EARLY MONDAY. P-TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW
WITH THE SYSTEM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. A BRIEF MIX WITH SOME SLEET OR PERHAPS SOME FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE...BUT THESE DETAILS WILL BE LOOKED AT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. TEMPS STILL MOSTLY
BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON.

MORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY WEATHER LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES RISING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

ANOTHER LOW...A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...WILL TRACK
FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE LATER TUE
AND REMAIN INTO THU. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK NEAR NORMAL TUE AND
PROBABLY ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. LOOKS LIKE MOSTLY RAIN S/E AND SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN N/W FOR THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT... VFR TO START WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SHIFTING
MORE NORTHERLY. MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING AROUND 06Z WEST AND 09Z
EAST WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BY 11Z ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW. LITTLE
OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.

FRIDAY... MVFR IN THE MORNING WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ENDING BY
16Z AT ALL TAF SITES, LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS. NOT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF GUSTS EXPECTED ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SUN...VFR EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SNOW
   EXPECTED AT TIMES.
MON NIGHT INTO TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE RUNNING SEVERAL FEET BELOW CURRENT
LEVELS FOR THE SEA HEIGHT. THIS TREND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY WITH NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEAS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR FIVE FEET LIKELY
THROUGH 20Z FRIDAY WHICH RESULTS IN AN EXTENSION OF THE SCA ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TILL 20Z FRIDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN DELAWARE BAY
HAVE FALLEN BELOW 25 KNOTS SO THE SCA WILL BE CANCELLED IN THE BAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS FRIDAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AROUND 25-30 KNOTS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...



&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  NOTE RECORDS FOR FRIDAY UNLIKELY
BUT POSTED JUST IN CASE ONE OR 2 ARE APPROACHED AT 1159 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF RECORDS SATURDAY.

POR / SITE  /  FEB 27     FEB 28

1872 / KPHL /  6 1900     9 1934
1874 / KACY /  7 1934*    2 1934
1894 / KILG /  5 1934    -5 1934
1922 / KABE / -2 1963   -10 1934
1869 / KRDG /  4 1934*    3 1934
1865 / KTTN /  6 1934     1 1934
1948 / KGED / 10 1963     8 1950
1901 / KMPO / -9 1993   -15 1907

KACY RER FOR 3/1 IS 5 IN 1980.

NOTE: * INDICATE AND OTHER YEARS.
NOTE: POR = PERIOD OF RECORD,THE YEAR OFFICIAL CLIMATE OBS BEGAN.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** TOP 5 COLDEST
FEBRUARY`S ON RECORD, BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EACH RANKING DENOTES THE MEAN FEBRUARY
TEMPERATURE /F/ AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

WE REREVIEWED THESE PROJECTIONS LISTED BELOW USING THIS THURSDAY
MORNINGS (26TH) MINS AND THE PHI FCST AS SEEN ON NDFD AND SFT`S. WE
SEE PHL/ABE/ILG ALL VERY CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS PROJECTIONS. KACY
CHANGED TO A WARMER PROJECTION HOWEVER THAT COULD YET REVERT BACK TO
A COLDER MONTHLY AVERAGE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ON ONE OR 2 OF THE MORNINGS.

POR  / SITE  / 1ST RANK / 2ND RANK / 3RD RANK / 4TH RANK / 5TH RANK

1872 / KPHL / 22.2(1934) 23.0(1979) 24.3(1885) 24.6(1978) 25.5(2015)
1874 / KACY / 21.6(1979) 23.8(1978/1934) 24.5(2015) 25.5(1875) 25.7
(1905)

1894 / KILG / 20.2(1934) 22.1(1979) 22.7(1978) 24.5(2015) 24.9(1936)
1922 / KABE / 16.6(1934) 18.9(2015) 20.4(1979) 21.6(1936) 22.0(1963)

PER THE ABOVE TABLE, ABE IS EASILY ON TRACK FOR THE SECOND COLDEST
FEBRUARY, ATLANTIC CITY 3RD COLDEST FOLLOWED BY THE FOURTH COLDEST
AT ILG, AND THE FIFTH COLDEST AT PHL.

THE FOLLOWING IS A TABLE OF THE ***PROJECTED*** MEAN FEBRUARY 2015
TEMPERATURES /F/ AND DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL. THIS IS ALSO BASED ON
THE CURRENT FORECAST, AND THUS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JANUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCLUDED FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.

POR  / SITE / FEB MEAN(F) / FEB NORMAL(F) / DEPARTURE / JAN MEAN(F)

1872 / KPHL / 25.5        / 35.7          / -10.2     / 30.9
1874 / KACY / 24.5        / 35.3          / -10.8     / 30.2
1894 / KILG / 24.5        / 35.1          / -10.6     / 30.3
1922 / KABE / 18.9        / 30.7          / -11.8     / 25.9

IN GENERAL, MEAN TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ON
TRACK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY 2015.
IT`S ALSO INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE PROJECTED FEBRUARY 2015 MEAN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW THE JANUARY 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURES.
TO PUT THIS IN PERSPECTIVE, NORMAL MEAN FEBRUARY TEMPERATURES AT OUR
FOUR MAJOR CLIMATE SITES ARE ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN JANUARY.
THE OPPOSITE IS SHAPING UP FOR FEBRUARY 2015.

ALSO...OF INTEREST...THIS WOULD ALSO BE THE SECOND COLDEST MONTHLY
MEAN TEMPERATURE ON RECORD AT ALLENTOWN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1922; FEBRUARY 1934 BEING THE COLDEST!

PHL PROJECTS AROUND 12TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN
1873.

ATLANTIC CITY 7TH COLDEST MONTHLY MEAN SINCE RECORDS BEGAN THERE
IN 1874.

WILMINGTON HAS MISSING DATA IN ITS DATABASE (1897-1916) AND SO WE
DON`T FOCUS AS MUCH ATTENTION ON THAT RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES
SHORT TERM...DRAG/GAINES
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 261751
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1251 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS QUICKLY MOVING OUT TO SEA WELL EAST OF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG SPRAWLING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN MONTANA SYSTEM WILL CREST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY
THEN WEAKEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STORM SNOW OVER S NJ, E MD AND DE IS JUST ABOUT OVER AND
THE LAST OF THE WARNINGS WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY.

THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS WILL BE UPDATED INTO THIS
EVENING WITH FINAL TOTALS.

THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER E PA AND NW NJ SHOULD DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WE`LL START SNOW PROBABILITIES AGAIN AT 430 PM FOR MORE UPCOMING
EVENTS.

OTHERWISE A NICE WINTERS AFTERNOON...ALBEIT 15 DEGREES OR SO ON
THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR, NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS FOR
PHL AND ACY, LOWER ELSEWHERE. CAN NOT RULE OUT LINGERING FLURRIES
FOR ABE AND RDG, NOT IN TAF ATTM.

TONIGHT... VFR TO START WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SHIFTING
MORE NORTHERLY. MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING AROUND 06Z WEST AND 09Z
EAST WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BY 11Z ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW. LITTLE
OR SNOW ACCUMULATION.

FRIDAY... MVFR IN THE MORNING WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ENDING BY
16Z AT ALL TAF SITES, LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF GUSTS EXPECTED ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN PROGRESS ALL WATERS EXCEPT MUCH OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY JUST
BELOW SCA. ON THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN BY EARLY THIS EVENING, WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.
THUS, HAVE SCA FOR THE OCEAN ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONG CLIMATE SECTION WILL BE ADDED BACK AT 430 PM WHICH WILL
HAVE UPCOMING RECORD THRESHOLDS, MONTHLY COMPARISONS ETC.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261751
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1251 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS QUICKLY MOVING OUT TO SEA WELL EAST OF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG SPRAWLING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN MONTANA SYSTEM WILL CREST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY
THEN WEAKEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STORM SNOW OVER S NJ, E MD AND DE IS JUST ABOUT OVER AND
THE LAST OF THE WARNINGS WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY.

THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS WILL BE UPDATED INTO THIS
EVENING WITH FINAL TOTALS.

THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER E PA AND NW NJ SHOULD DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WE`LL START SNOW PROBABILITIES AGAIN AT 430 PM FOR MORE UPCOMING
EVENTS.

OTHERWISE A NICE WINTERS AFTERNOON...ALBEIT 15 DEGREES OR SO ON
THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR, NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS FOR
PHL AND ACY, LOWER ELSEWHERE. CAN NOT RULE OUT LINGERING FLURRIES
FOR ABE AND RDG, NOT IN TAF ATTM.

TONIGHT... VFR TO START WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SHIFTING
MORE NORTHERLY. MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING AROUND 06Z WEST AND 09Z
EAST WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BY 11Z ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW. LITTLE
OR SNOW ACCUMULATION.

FRIDAY... MVFR IN THE MORNING WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ENDING BY
16Z AT ALL TAF SITES, LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF GUSTS EXPECTED ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN PROGRESS ALL WATERS EXCEPT MUCH OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY JUST
BELOW SCA. ON THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN BY EARLY THIS EVENING, WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.
THUS, HAVE SCA FOR THE OCEAN ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONG CLIMATE SECTION WILL BE ADDED BACK AT 430 PM WHICH WILL
HAVE UPCOMING RECORD THRESHOLDS, MONTHLY COMPARISONS ETC.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261751
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1251 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS QUICKLY MOVING OUT TO SEA WELL EAST OF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG SPRAWLING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN MONTANA SYSTEM WILL CREST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY
THEN WEAKEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STORM SNOW OVER S NJ, E MD AND DE IS JUST ABOUT OVER AND
THE LAST OF THE WARNINGS WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY.

THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS WILL BE UPDATED INTO THIS
EVENING WITH FINAL TOTALS.

THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER E PA AND NW NJ SHOULD DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WE`LL START SNOW PROBABILITIES AGAIN AT 430 PM FOR MORE UPCOMING
EVENTS.

OTHERWISE A NICE WINTERS AFTERNOON...ALBEIT 15 DEGREES OR SO ON
THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR, NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS FOR
PHL AND ACY, LOWER ELSEWHERE. CAN NOT RULE OUT LINGERING FLURRIES
FOR ABE AND RDG, NOT IN TAF ATTM.

TONIGHT... VFR TO START WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SHIFTING
MORE NORTHERLY. MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING AROUND 06Z WEST AND 09Z
EAST WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW BY 11Z ACROSS THE REGION. SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF THE MVFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW. LITTLE
OR SNOW ACCUMULATION.

FRIDAY... MVFR IN THE MORNING WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW ENDING BY
16Z AT ALL TAF SITES, LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF GUSTS EXPECTED ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL
AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN PROGRESS ALL WATERS EXCEPT MUCH OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY JUST
BELOW SCA. ON THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN BY EARLY THIS EVENING, WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.
THUS, HAVE SCA FOR THE OCEAN ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONG CLIMATE SECTION WILL BE ADDED BACK AT 430 PM WHICH WILL
HAVE UPCOMING RECORD THRESHOLDS, MONTHLY COMPARISONS ETC.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 261648
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1148 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS QUICKLY MOVING OUT TO SEA WELL EAST OF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG SPRAWLING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN MONTANA SYSTEM WILL CREST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY
THEN WEAKEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STORM SNOW OVER S NJ, E MD AND DE IS JUST ABOUT OVER AND
THE LAST OF THE WARNINGS WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY.

THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS WILL BE UPDATED INTO THIS
EVENING WITH FINAL TOTALS.

THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER E PA AND NW NJ SHOULD DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WE`LL START SNOW PROBABILITIES AGAIN AT 430 PM FOR MORE UPCOMING
EVENTS.

OTHERWISE A NICE WINTERS AFTERNOON...ALBEIT 15 DEGREES OR SO ON
THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LEFTOVER
MVFR CONDS VCNTY KRDG/KABE/KACY WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY
19Z. N-NE WIND WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT VCNTY KPHL/KILG/KACY...LESSER
GUSTS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS, ALBEIT THE LOWER END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME
RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION, AND A LOW CHANCE OF IFR
-SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER 06Z.  LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN PROGRESS ALL WATERS EXCEPT MUCH OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY JUST
BELOW SCA. ON THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN BY EARLY THIS EVENING, WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.
THUS, HAVE SCA FOR THE OCEAN ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONG CLIMATE SECTION WILL BE ADDED BACK AT 430 PM WHICH WILL
HAVE UPCOMING RECORD THRESHOLDS, MONTHLY COMPARISONS ETC.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ023-024.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/DRAG 1149
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 1149
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1149
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1149
CLIMATE...1149




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261648
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1148 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS QUICKLY MOVING OUT TO SEA WELL EAST OF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. STRONG SPRAWLING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN MONTANA SYSTEM WILL CREST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY
THEN WEAKEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FOLLOWS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE STORM SNOW OVER S NJ, E MD AND DE IS JUST ABOUT OVER AND
THE LAST OF THE WARNINGS WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY.

THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS WILL BE UPDATED INTO THIS
EVENING WITH FINAL TOTALS.

THE BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER E PA AND NW NJ SHOULD DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

WE`LL START SNOW PROBABILITIES AGAIN AT 430 PM FOR MORE UPCOMING
EVENTS.

OTHERWISE A NICE WINTERS AFTERNOON...ALBEIT 15 DEGREES OR SO ON
THE COLD SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LEFTOVER
MVFR CONDS VCNTY KRDG/KABE/KACY WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY
19Z. N-NE WIND WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT VCNTY KPHL/KILG/KACY...LESSER
GUSTS ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS, ALBEIT THE LOWER END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME
RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION, AND A LOW CHANCE OF IFR
-SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER 06Z.  LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA IN PROGRESS ALL WATERS EXCEPT MUCH OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY JUST
BELOW SCA. ON THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEN BY EARLY THIS EVENING, WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.
THUS, HAVE SCA FOR THE OCEAN ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONG CLIMATE SECTION WILL BE ADDED BACK AT 430 PM WHICH WILL
HAVE UPCOMING RECORD THRESHOLDS, MONTHLY COMPARISONS ETC.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ023-024.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/DRAG 1149
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 1149
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1149
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1149
CLIMATE...1149





000
FXUS61 KPHI 261447
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY. THE HIGHEST TOTAL CLOSE TO 5 INCHES WAS
RECORDED ON FENWICK ISLAND SO FAR. SNOW TOTALS WERE UPDATED WITH
THESE CURRENT REPORTS AND WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AN ADDITIONAL HOUR
OR TWO OF STEADY SNOW POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR BRIEF
INTERVALS. THIS DID RAISE TOTALS ALONG THE DELAWARE BEACHES NORTH
THROUGH ATLANTIC CITY SLIGHTLY. FURTHER NORTHWEST, DRY AIR HAS
ERODED THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SUFFICIENTLY
THIS MORNING. TOTALS WERE UNDER AN INCH THROUGH WILMINGTON AND
PHILADELPHIA THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES POSSIBLE. THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW SNOW EXITING THE BEACHES
AROUND 17Z AND THE WINTER STORM ADVISORIES/WARNINGS GO THROUGH
18Z WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FALLEN.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PENETRATE FURTHER SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND HAVE POPS TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOULD JUST BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR
VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SOME WITH THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA.  &&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SNOW IS TRYING TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT
IS ENCOUNTERING A WALL OF DRY AIR. WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY
SITES, KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN
WILL BE THE LAST TO BE AFFECTED). THOUGH IT APPEARS THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR THIS WILL BE ENDING SOON BY 14Z-15Z. AT KILG, KMIV AND
KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER,
SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION. TAFS REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS LAMP AS IT APPEARS TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...THINK
THAT ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261447
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY. THE HIGHEST TOTAL CLOSE TO 5 INCHES WAS
RECORDED ON FENWICK ISLAND SO FAR. SNOW TOTALS WERE UPDATED WITH
THESE CURRENT REPORTS AND WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AN ADDITIONAL HOUR
OR TWO OF STEADY SNOW POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR BRIEF
INTERVALS. THIS DID RAISE TOTALS ALONG THE DELAWARE BEACHES NORTH
THROUGH ATLANTIC CITY SLIGHTLY. FURTHER NORTHWEST, DRY AIR HAS
ERODED THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SUFFICIENTLY
THIS MORNING. TOTALS WERE UNDER AN INCH THROUGH WILMINGTON AND
PHILADELPHIA THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES POSSIBLE. THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW SNOW EXITING THE BEACHES
AROUND 17Z AND THE WINTER STORM ADVISORIES/WARNINGS GO THROUGH
18Z WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FALLEN.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PENETRATE FURTHER SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND HAVE POPS TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOULD JUST BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR
VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SOME WITH THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA.  &&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SNOW IS TRYING TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT
IS ENCOUNTERING A WALL OF DRY AIR. WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY
SITES, KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN
WILL BE THE LAST TO BE AFFECTED). THOUGH IT APPEARS THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR THIS WILL BE ENDING SOON BY 14Z-15Z. AT KILG, KMIV AND
KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER,
SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION. TAFS REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS LAMP AS IT APPEARS TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...THINK
THAT ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 261447
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY. THE HIGHEST TOTAL CLOSE TO 5 INCHES WAS
RECORDED ON FENWICK ISLAND SO FAR. SNOW TOTALS WERE UPDATED WITH
THESE CURRENT REPORTS AND WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AN ADDITIONAL HOUR
OR TWO OF STEADY SNOW POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR BRIEF
INTERVALS. THIS DID RAISE TOTALS ALONG THE DELAWARE BEACHES NORTH
THROUGH ATLANTIC CITY SLIGHTLY. FURTHER NORTHWEST, DRY AIR HAS
ERODED THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SUFFICIENTLY
THIS MORNING. TOTALS WERE UNDER AN INCH THROUGH WILMINGTON AND
PHILADELPHIA THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES POSSIBLE. THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW SNOW EXITING THE BEACHES
AROUND 17Z AND THE WINTER STORM ADVISORIES/WARNINGS GO THROUGH
18Z WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FALLEN.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PENETRATE FURTHER SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND HAVE POPS TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOULD JUST BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR
VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SOME WITH THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA.  &&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SNOW IS TRYING TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT
IS ENCOUNTERING A WALL OF DRY AIR. WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY
SITES, KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN
WILL BE THE LAST TO BE AFFECTED). THOUGH IT APPEARS THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR THIS WILL BE ENDING SOON BY 14Z-15Z. AT KILG, KMIV AND
KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER,
SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION. TAFS REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS LAMP AS IT APPEARS TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...THINK
THAT ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261447
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW HAVE FALLEN ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY. THE HIGHEST TOTAL CLOSE TO 5 INCHES WAS
RECORDED ON FENWICK ISLAND SO FAR. SNOW TOTALS WERE UPDATED WITH
THESE CURRENT REPORTS AND WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR AN ADDITIONAL HOUR
OR TWO OF STEADY SNOW POSSIBLY MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR BRIEF
INTERVALS. THIS DID RAISE TOTALS ALONG THE DELAWARE BEACHES NORTH
THROUGH ATLANTIC CITY SLIGHTLY. FURTHER NORTHWEST, DRY AIR HAS
ERODED THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SUFFICIENTLY
THIS MORNING. TOTALS WERE UNDER AN INCH THROUGH WILMINGTON AND
PHILADELPHIA THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING
FLURRIES POSSIBLE. THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW SNOW EXITING THE BEACHES
AROUND 17Z AND THE WINTER STORM ADVISORIES/WARNINGS GO THROUGH
18Z WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS FALLEN.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PENETRATE FURTHER SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND HAVE POPS TAPERING DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOULD JUST BE IN THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR
VERY LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED
DOWNWARD SOME WITH THE PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA.  &&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SNOW IS TRYING TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT
IS ENCOUNTERING A WALL OF DRY AIR. WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY
SITES, KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN
WILL BE THE LAST TO BE AFFECTED). THOUGH IT APPEARS THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR THIS WILL BE ENDING SOON BY 14Z-15Z. AT KILG, KMIV AND
KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER,
SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION. TAFS REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS LAMP AS IT APPEARS TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...THINK
THAT ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GAINES/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 261247
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
747 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ NOW. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SNOW TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND LATE THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA, BUT AS OF 330 AM REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
CWA.

TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
FROM NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, THEN THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR AMOUNTS, TRENDED THE AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC
COAST WHICH COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY THIS FAR NORTH.
SECOND, LATEST WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT QUICKLY SLIDING IN FROM THE SW. AS OF 3 AM THE DRY SLOT
EXTENDED FROM SW VA UP TO THE POCONOS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FOR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. ALSO RELATED TO
SATELLITE, EVEN EAST OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THERE HAS BEEN A CLOUD TOP WARMING TREND FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS. FINALLY, MOST OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WE`VE
SEEN UP STREAM SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
WHICH HAS BEEN WELL DEPICTED BY THE RAP. THE RAP SHOWS THIS
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SLIDING EAST BEFORE IT GETS AS FAR AS OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THOUGH, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST OMEGA
VALUES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, PRIMARILY IN THE FEW HOURS
AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THUS THE TIMING OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SNOW IS TRYING TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT
IS ENCOUNTERING A WALL OF DRY AIR. WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY
SITES, KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN
WILL BE THE LAST TO BE AFFECTED). THOUGH IT APPEARS THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR THIS WILL BE ENDING SOON BY 14Z-15Z. AT KILG, KMIV AND
KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER,
SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION. TAFS REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS LAMP AS IT APPEARS TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...THINK
THAT ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261247
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
747 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ NOW. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SNOW TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND LATE THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA, BUT AS OF 330 AM REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
CWA.

TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
FROM NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, THEN THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR AMOUNTS, TRENDED THE AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC
COAST WHICH COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY THIS FAR NORTH.
SECOND, LATEST WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT QUICKLY SLIDING IN FROM THE SW. AS OF 3 AM THE DRY SLOT
EXTENDED FROM SW VA UP TO THE POCONOS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FOR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. ALSO RELATED TO
SATELLITE, EVEN EAST OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THERE HAS BEEN A CLOUD TOP WARMING TREND FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS. FINALLY, MOST OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WE`VE
SEEN UP STREAM SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
WHICH HAS BEEN WELL DEPICTED BY THE RAP. THE RAP SHOWS THIS
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SLIDING EAST BEFORE IT GETS AS FAR AS OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THOUGH, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST OMEGA
VALUES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, PRIMARILY IN THE FEW HOURS
AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THUS THE TIMING OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SNOW IS TRYING TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT
IS ENCOUNTERING A WALL OF DRY AIR. WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY
SITES, KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN
WILL BE THE LAST TO BE AFFECTED). THOUGH IT APPEARS THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR THIS WILL BE ENDING SOON BY 14Z-15Z. AT KILG, KMIV AND
KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER,
SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION. TAFS REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS LAMP AS IT APPEARS TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...THINK
THAT ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261247
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
747 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ NOW. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SNOW TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND LATE THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA, BUT AS OF 330 AM REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
CWA.

TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
FROM NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, THEN THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR AMOUNTS, TRENDED THE AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC
COAST WHICH COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY THIS FAR NORTH.
SECOND, LATEST WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT QUICKLY SLIDING IN FROM THE SW. AS OF 3 AM THE DRY SLOT
EXTENDED FROM SW VA UP TO THE POCONOS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FOR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. ALSO RELATED TO
SATELLITE, EVEN EAST OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THERE HAS BEEN A CLOUD TOP WARMING TREND FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS. FINALLY, MOST OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WE`VE
SEEN UP STREAM SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
WHICH HAS BEEN WELL DEPICTED BY THE RAP. THE RAP SHOWS THIS
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SLIDING EAST BEFORE IT GETS AS FAR AS OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THOUGH, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST OMEGA
VALUES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, PRIMARILY IN THE FEW HOURS
AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THUS THE TIMING OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SNOW IS TRYING TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT
IS ENCOUNTERING A WALL OF DRY AIR. WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY
SITES, KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN
WILL BE THE LAST TO BE AFFECTED). THOUGH IT APPEARS THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR THIS WILL BE ENDING SOON BY 14Z-15Z. AT KILG, KMIV AND
KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER,
SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION. TAFS REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS LAMP AS IT APPEARS TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...THINK
THAT ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 261247
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
747 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ NOW. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SNOW TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND LATE THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA, BUT AS OF 330 AM REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
CWA.

TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
FROM NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, THEN THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR AMOUNTS, TRENDED THE AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC
COAST WHICH COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY THIS FAR NORTH.
SECOND, LATEST WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT QUICKLY SLIDING IN FROM THE SW. AS OF 3 AM THE DRY SLOT
EXTENDED FROM SW VA UP TO THE POCONOS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FOR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. ALSO RELATED TO
SATELLITE, EVEN EAST OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THERE HAS BEEN A CLOUD TOP WARMING TREND FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS. FINALLY, MOST OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WE`VE
SEEN UP STREAM SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
WHICH HAS BEEN WELL DEPICTED BY THE RAP. THE RAP SHOWS THIS
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SLIDING EAST BEFORE IT GETS AS FAR AS OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THOUGH, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST OMEGA
VALUES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, PRIMARILY IN THE FEW HOURS
AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THUS THE TIMING OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SNOW IS TRYING TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, IT
IS ENCOUNTERING A WALL OF DRY AIR. WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY
SITES, KPHL, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN
WILL BE THE LAST TO BE AFFECTED). THOUGH IT APPEARS THE MAIN
WINDOW FOR THIS WILL BE ENDING SOON BY 14Z-15Z. AT KILG, KMIV AND
KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER,
SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION. TAFS REFLECT MORE OPTIMISTIC
CONDITIONS THAN WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS LAMP AS IT APPEARS TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...THINK
THAT ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 261152
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
652 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ NOW. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SNOW TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND LATE THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA, BUT AS OF 330 AM REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
CWA.

TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
FROM NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, THEN THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR AMOUNTS, TRENDED THE AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC
COAST WHICH COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY THIS FAR NORTH.
SECOND, LATEST WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT QUICKLY SLIDING IN FROM THE SW. AS OF 3 AM THE DRY SLOT
EXTENDED FROM SW VA UP TO THE POCONOS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FOR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. ALSO RELATED TO
SATELLITE, EVEN EAST OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THERE HAS BEEN A CLOUD TOP WARMING TREND FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS. FINALLY, MOST OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WE`VE
SEEN UP STREAM SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
WHICH HAS BEEN WELL DEPICTED BY THE RAP. THE RAP SHOWS THIS
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SLIDING EAST BEFORE IT GETS AS FAR AS OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THOUGH, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST OMEGA
VALUES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, PRIMARILY IN THE FEW HOURS
AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THUS THE TIMING OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH 12Z AS SNOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY SITES, KPHL,
KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN WILL BE
THE LAST TO BE AFFECTED). AT KILG, KMIV AND KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT
BUT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER, SNOW SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE REGION. TAFS REFLECT MORE OPTOMISTIC CONDITIONS THAN
WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS LAMP AS IT APPEARS TO BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...THINK
THAT ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 261152
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
652 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ NOW. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SNOW TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND LATE THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA, BUT AS OF 330 AM REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
CWA.

TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
FROM NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, THEN THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR AMOUNTS, TRENDED THE AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC
COAST WHICH COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY THIS FAR NORTH.
SECOND, LATEST WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT QUICKLY SLIDING IN FROM THE SW. AS OF 3 AM THE DRY SLOT
EXTENDED FROM SW VA UP TO THE POCONOS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FOR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. ALSO RELATED TO
SATELLITE, EVEN EAST OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THERE HAS BEEN A CLOUD TOP WARMING TREND FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS. FINALLY, MOST OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WE`VE
SEEN UP STREAM SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
WHICH HAS BEEN WELL DEPICTED BY THE RAP. THE RAP SHOWS THIS
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SLIDING EAST BEFORE IT GETS AS FAR AS OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THOUGH, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST OMEGA
VALUES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, PRIMARILY IN THE FEW HOURS
AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THUS THE TIMING OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH 12Z AS SNOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY SITES, KPHL,
KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN WILL BE
THE LAST TO BE AFFECTED). AT KILG, KMIV AND KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT
BUT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER, SNOW SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE REGION. TAFS REFLECT MORE OPTOMISTIC CONDITIONS THAN
WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS LAMP AS IT APPEARS TO BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...THINK
THAT ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261152
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
652 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ NOW. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE SNOW TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW
AND LATE THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED
IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA, BUT AS OF 330 AM REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
CWA.

TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
FROM NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, THEN THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR AMOUNTS, TRENDED THE AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC
COAST WHICH COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY THIS FAR NORTH.
SECOND, LATEST WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT QUICKLY SLIDING IN FROM THE SW. AS OF 3 AM THE DRY SLOT
EXTENDED FROM SW VA UP TO THE POCONOS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FOR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. ALSO RELATED TO
SATELLITE, EVEN EAST OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THERE HAS BEEN A CLOUD TOP WARMING TREND FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS. FINALLY, MOST OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WE`VE
SEEN UP STREAM SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
WHICH HAS BEEN WELL DEPICTED BY THE RAP. THE RAP SHOWS THIS
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SLIDING EAST BEFORE IT GETS AS FAR AS OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THOUGH, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST OMEGA
VALUES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, PRIMARILY IN THE FEW HOURS
AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THUS THE TIMING OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH 12Z AS SNOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY SITES, KPHL,
KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN WILL BE
THE LAST TO BE AFFECTED). AT KILG, KMIV AND KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT
BUT SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER, SNOW SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE REGION. TAFS REFLECT MORE OPTOMISTIC CONDITIONS THAN
WHAT IS DEPICTED IN THE GFS LAMP AS IT APPEARS TO BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THUS...THINK
THAT ONCE THE SNOW MOVES OUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR...THOUGH THERE REMAINS A SMALL CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016>027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 260924
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
424 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA, BUT AS OF 330 AM
REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
FROM NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, THEN THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR AMOUNTS, TRENDED THE AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC
COAST WHICH COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY THIS FAR NORTH.
SECOND, LATEST WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT QUICKLY SLIDING IN FROM THE SW. AS OF 3 AM THE DRY SLOT
EXTENDED FROM SW VA UP TO THE POCONOS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FOR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. ALSO RELATED TO
SATELLITE, EVEN EAST OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THERE HAS BEEN A CLOUD TOP WARMING TREND FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS. FINALLY, MOST OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WE`VE
SEEN UP STREAM SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
WHICH HAS BEEN WELL DEPICTED BY THE RAP. THE RAP SHOWS THIS
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SLIDING EAST BEFORE IT GETS AS FAR AS OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THOUGH, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST OMEGA
VALUES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, PRIMARILY IN THE FEW HOURS
AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THUS THE TIMING OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH 12Z AS SNOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY SITES, KPHL,
KILG, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN WILL BE THE
LAST TO BE AFFECTED). AT KMIV AND KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER, SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
OF THE REGION, THOUGH TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF THE GFS SHOW MVFR
CEILINGS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016>020-026-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 260924
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
424 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA, BUT AS OF 330 AM
REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
FROM NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, THEN THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR AMOUNTS, TRENDED THE AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC
COAST WHICH COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY THIS FAR NORTH.
SECOND, LATEST WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT QUICKLY SLIDING IN FROM THE SW. AS OF 3 AM THE DRY SLOT
EXTENDED FROM SW VA UP TO THE POCONOS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FOR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. ALSO RELATED TO
SATELLITE, EVEN EAST OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THERE HAS BEEN A CLOUD TOP WARMING TREND FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS. FINALLY, MOST OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WE`VE
SEEN UP STREAM SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
WHICH HAS BEEN WELL DEPICTED BY THE RAP. THE RAP SHOWS THIS
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SLIDING EAST BEFORE IT GETS AS FAR AS OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THOUGH, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST OMEGA
VALUES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, PRIMARILY IN THE FEW HOURS
AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THUS THE TIMING OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH 12Z AS SNOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY SITES, KPHL,
KILG, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN WILL BE THE
LAST TO BE AFFECTED). AT KMIV AND KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER, SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
OF THE REGION, THOUGH TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF THE GFS SHOW MVFR
CEILINGS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016>020-026-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 260924
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
424 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA, BUT AS OF 330 AM
REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
FROM NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, THEN THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR AMOUNTS, TRENDED THE AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC
COAST WHICH COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY THIS FAR NORTH.
SECOND, LATEST WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT QUICKLY SLIDING IN FROM THE SW. AS OF 3 AM THE DRY SLOT
EXTENDED FROM SW VA UP TO THE POCONOS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FOR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. ALSO RELATED TO
SATELLITE, EVEN EAST OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THERE HAS BEEN A CLOUD TOP WARMING TREND FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS. FINALLY, MOST OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WE`VE
SEEN UP STREAM SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
WHICH HAS BEEN WELL DEPICTED BY THE RAP. THE RAP SHOWS THIS
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SLIDING EAST BEFORE IT GETS AS FAR AS OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THOUGH, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST OMEGA
VALUES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, PRIMARILY IN THE FEW HOURS
AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THUS THE TIMING OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH 12Z AS SNOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY SITES, KPHL,
KILG, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN WILL BE THE
LAST TO BE AFFECTED). AT KMIV AND KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER, SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
OF THE REGION, THOUGH TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF THE GFS SHOW MVFR
CEILINGS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016>020-026-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 260924
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
424 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
TODAY WHILE ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOSES IN BY FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE EJECTS OUT OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CROSSES OUR REGION ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER ON WEDNESDAY
WITH ANOTHER EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLING IN BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE LATEST COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA, BUT AS OF 330 AM
REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA.

TIMING STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A MAJORITY OF THE SNOW OCCURRING
FROM NOW THROUGH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, THEN THE SNOW TAPERING OFF
MID DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AS FOR AMOUNTS, TRENDED THE AMOUNTS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR THE FOLLOWING
REASONS. FIRST, THERE HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONVECTION OFF THE NC
COAST WHICH COULD LIMIT THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY THIS FAR NORTH.
SECOND, LATEST WV AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT QUICKLY SLIDING IN FROM THE SW. AS OF 3 AM THE DRY SLOT
EXTENDED FROM SW VA UP TO THE POCONOS. THIS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FOR THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. ALSO RELATED TO
SATELLITE, EVEN EAST OF THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THERE HAS BEEN A CLOUD TOP WARMING TREND FOR
THE LAST FEW HOURS. FINALLY, MOST OF THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW WE`VE
SEEN UP STREAM SEEM TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS
WHICH HAS BEEN WELL DEPICTED BY THE RAP. THE RAP SHOWS THIS
FRONTOGENESIS BAND SLIDING EAST BEFORE IT GETS AS FAR AS OUR REGION.

FOR NOW THOUGH, WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER
STORM WARNING AS SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST OMEGA
VALUES WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, PRIMARILY IN THE FEW HOURS
AROUND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. THUS THE TIMING OF THE SNOW MAY BE
MORE IMPACTFUL THAN THE ACTUAL AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT, A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SIDESWIPE THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. AS A RESULT...LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILLY SUBURBS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS SYSTEM AS THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM.
THEREFORE, ANY SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE BELOW AN INCH.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN FOR LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LAST PIECE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS
THE BROAD SCALE TROUGHING FINALLY RELINQUISHING ITS GRASP ON OUR
REGION. THE MID-LEVELS TAKE ON MORE OF A ZONAL-ISH FLOW OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT EMBEDDED WAVE EXPECTED BY MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SQUEEZING IN LATER ON
FRIDAY FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. JUST AHEAD OF THE RIDGING WILL BE A
LAST DITCH EFFORT BY THE BROAD TROUGH TO PUSH A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WE
CONFINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES BEFORE DRYING
OUT LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE RIDGING WILL BE ABLE
TO EXERT ITSELF UPON THE AREA AND WE REMAIN DRY, BUT COLD, THROUGH
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...ZONAL-ISH FLOW TURNS A BIT SHARPER AS THE BROAD
TROUGH RELOADS WELL TO OUR WEST. ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE ALOFT
APPROACHES AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION  LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO
MODIFY A BIT THANKS TO THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF THE COAST
AND A LIGHT RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. WE CONFINED THE HIGHER POPS
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD AND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
DECENT AMOUNT OF THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
ENOUGH LIFT FOR A LIGHT SNOW TO START BEFORE A WINTRY MIX/
CHANGEOVER, MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH AND ALLOWS FOR ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR AND MORE PRECIPITATION PHASE CHANGES.

TUESDAY - WEDNEDSAY...WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A BRIEF
SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND IT, THE NEXT SYSTEM, FORMING DEEP IN
THE SOUTH, BEGINS TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TUESDAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WHEN COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY SURGE
OF WARM/MOIST AIR. THIS EVENT COULD HAVE A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT, GIVEN ITS ORIGIN AND THE MODIFYING AIRMASS WE`LL
HAVE IN PLACE. TOO EARLY FOR PTYPE SPECIFICS BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO
BE A MIXED EVENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL TIMES THIS WINTER
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AS
IT CROSSES THE MID-WEST AND THEREFORE OVER AMPLIFIES/WARMS THE LOW-
LEVELS. A SHIFT TO THE EAST AND A WEAKER SOLUTION WOULD LEAD TO LESS
MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH 12Z AS SNOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTH. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE WESTERN TAF SITES, KABE AND
KRDG, WILL SEE ANY SNOW AT ALL. FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY SITES, KPHL,
KILG, KPNE, AND KTTN, A 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD OF MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z (SOONER AT KILG, WHILE KTTN WILL BE THE
LAST TO BE AFFECTED). AT KMIV AND KACY, MOSTLY LIGHT BUT SOME
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY 18Z HOWEVER, SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING OUT
OF THE REGION, THOUGH TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF THE GFS SHOW MVFR
CEILINGS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS.

OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD INCREASE BACK TO VFR, ALBEIT THE LOWER
END OF VFR. THERE IS SOME RISK OF BR DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION,
AND A LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN FOR KRDG AND KABE AFTER
06Z. HOWEVER, IN BOTH CASES THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON MVFR SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE WEST.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR TO START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON RESULTING IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH THE
INCREASE IN WINDS, SEAS WILL SLOWLY BUILD AS WELL (PRIMARILY ON THE
OCEAN). FOR THE OCEAN WATERS A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BY EARLY THIS
EVENING, WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 25KT, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN
WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH. THUS, HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH 06Z FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 11Z FOR THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED, THOUGH PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR BUILDING SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS LATE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016>020-026-027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ003-
     004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON





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