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000
FXUS61 KPHI 230241
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA`S WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER
WITH THE MAIN LOW- LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE
BETTER LIFT THERE, ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING
IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE COLDEST SPOTS LOOK JUST
WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

DID RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES SOME WITH THE LATEST 9:30 PM UPDATE. CLOUD
COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DOWN IN
THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER OUTSIDE THE CLOUD SHIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS
MOS IS APPLIED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY
ONWARD) THE 1522Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS
FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR
POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT
WIND AT 850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM-6 AM (08Z-11Z) TIME FRAME.
12Z NAM HAS SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS
LEAST ROBUST OF THE THREE 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC
TSTM IN SNJ AND THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (MOSTLY CIRRUS)...BREEZY AND
STILL WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
LOW LVL WNW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.



TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

SUNDAY NIGHT... VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z FROM
PHL SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
04Z MON THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS.
RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL AND
NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
SNOW AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 230241
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA`S WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER
WITH THE MAIN LOW- LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE
BETTER LIFT THERE, ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING
IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE COLDEST SPOTS LOOK JUST
WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

DID RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES SOME WITH THE LATEST 9:30 PM UPDATE. CLOUD
COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. DOWN IN
THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER OUTSIDE THE CLOUD SHIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS
MOS IS APPLIED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY
ONWARD) THE 1522Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS
FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR
POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT
WIND AT 850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM-6 AM (08Z-11Z) TIME FRAME.
12Z NAM HAS SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS
LEAST ROBUST OF THE THREE 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC
TSTM IN SNJ AND THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (MOSTLY CIRRUS)...BREEZY AND
STILL WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
LOW LVL WNW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.



TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

SUNDAY NIGHT... VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS. LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z FROM
PHL SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
04Z MON THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS.
RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL AND
NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
SNOW AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222350
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
650 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA`S WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER
WITH THE MAIN LOW- LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE
BETTER LIFT THERE, ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING
IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE COLDEST SPOTS LOOK JUST
WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE SPS THAT WAS
IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

DID RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES SOME WITH THE LATEST 6;30 PM UPDATE AS
CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER OUTSIDE THE CLOUD SHIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS
MOS IS APPLIED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY
ONWARD) THE 1522Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS
FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR
POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT
WIND AT 850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM-6 AM (08Z-11Z) TIME FRAME.
12Z NAM HAS SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS
LEAST ROBUST OF THE THREE 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC
TSTM IN SNJ AND THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (MOSTLY CIRRUS)...BREEZY AND
STILL WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
LOW LVL WNW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET FOR
MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY
RAINS. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL AND
NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
SNOW AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222350
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
650 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINA`S WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES, HOWEVER
WITH THE MAIN LOW- LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE
BETTER LIFT THERE, ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING
IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE COLDEST SPOTS LOOK JUST
WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE SPS THAT WAS
IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

DID RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES SOME WITH THE LATEST 6;30 PM UPDATE AS
CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
DOWN IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER OUTSIDE THE CLOUD SHIELD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS
MOS IS APPLIED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY
ONWARD) THE 1522Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS
FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR
POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT
WIND AT 850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM-6 AM (08Z-11Z) TIME FRAME.
12Z NAM HAS SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS
LEAST ROBUST OF THE THREE 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC
TSTM IN SNJ AND THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (MOSTLY CIRRUS)...BREEZY AND
STILL WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
LOW LVL WNW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET FOR
MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY
RAINS. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL AND
NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
SNOW AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 222129
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
429 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT THERE,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
LOW CHC POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ATTM. FARTHER SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME, A FEW
SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND THEN
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THESE COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AND A MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP
WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS
MOS IS APPLIED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY
ONWARD) THE 1522Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS
FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR
POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT
WIND AT 850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM-6 AM (08Z-11Z) TIME FRAME.
12Z NAM HAS SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS
LEAST ROBUST OF THE THREE 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC
TSTM IN SNJ AND THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (MOSTLY CIRRUS)...BREEZY AND
STILL WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
LOW LVL WNW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET FOR
MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY
RAINS. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL AND
NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
SNOW AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 428P
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 428P
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 428P
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222129
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
429 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT THERE,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
LOW CHC POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ATTM. FARTHER SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME, A FEW
SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND THEN
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THESE COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AND A MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP
WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS
MOS IS APPLIED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY
ONWARD) THE 1522Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS
FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR
POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS
NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT
WIND AT 850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM-6 AM (08Z-11Z) TIME FRAME.
12Z NAM HAS SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS
LEAST ROBUST OF THE THREE 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC
TSTM IN SNJ AND THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY (MOSTLY CIRRUS)...BREEZY AND
STILL WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
LOW LVL WNW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
HEADING ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET FOR
MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY
RAINS. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE
TOWARD 09Z MONDAY. LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL AND
NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SOME
SNOW AND A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 428P
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 428P
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 428P
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 222102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT THERE,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
LOW CHC POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ATTM. FARTHER SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME, A FEW
SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND THEN
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THESE COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AND A MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP
WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY-TUESDAY. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS MOS IS
APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ONWARD) THE 1523Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF
CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES (SEEMS LIKE A RECENT
WARM BIAS IN THOSE EC 2M TEMPS). PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE
IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.



THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT WIND AT
850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM AND 6 AM TIME FRAME. 12Z NAM HAS
SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS LEAST ROBUST
OF THE 3 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC TSTM IN SNJ AND
THE THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...BREEZY AND STILL WITH TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. (MOSTLY CIRRUS)

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE ECMWF IS PRETTY STABLE
THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FURTHEST WEST WITH
THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS
MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE
INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS
AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY
SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
NW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADING
ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET FOR
MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY
RAINS. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 305 KT RANGE.
LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL
AND NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO
SOME SNOW AND PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG  402
NEAR TERM...GORSE 402
SHORT TERM...GORSE 402
LONG TERM...DRAG 402
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 402
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 402
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EDGING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT...DRAWING A STRONG WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR JAMES BAY MONDAY EVENING AS IT SENDS
A COLD FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATER TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND MOVES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND ON THANKSGIVING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL
OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF
CLOUDINESS THAT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM CENTRAL NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA ON NORTHEASTWARD. SOME OF THIS WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT THERE,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING RESULTS VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
LOW CHC POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY AND GO WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ATTM. FARTHER SOUTHEAST FOR A TIME, A FEW
SPRINKLES COULD OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND THEN
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THESE COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AND A MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP
WITH TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**RECORD WARMTH MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIAL WINTER STORM/EVENT
 FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY**

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH NEAR 100W LONGITUDE TO START SUNDAY
NIGHT LIFTS NEWD INTO QUEBEC BY TUESDAY WITH A NEW TROUGH EVOLVING
OVER THE EASTERN USA WEDNESDAY BUT FULL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS - AMPLITUDE AND TRANSLATION SPEEDS. SO
WHILE A MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WINTER EVENT IS FORECAST, IT IS NOT
YET A LOCK DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UNCERTAINTY. A GENERAL
CYCLONIC FLOW AT MID LEVELS CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHEAST USA THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL SINCE THE
13TH (9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS).  MODELS AGREE ON TEMPS ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...MAYBE 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...
BELOW NORMAL WED-FRI AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/22 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD MONDAY-TUESDAY. THEN THE 12Z/22 GFS MOS IS
APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER (WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ONWARD) THE 1523Z/22 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED
50 50 WITH THE 12Z/22 GFS MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/22 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF
CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES (SEEMS LIKE A RECENT
WARM BIAS IN THOSE EC 2M TEMPS). PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE
IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/22 SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/22 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.



THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...WAA WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A TIME. AN ISOLATED SVR TSTM IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE IN DEL/NJ WITH SWI -1, TT 48, KI 32 AND 60-70KT WIND AT
850 MB ON THE ECMWF IN THE 3AM AND 6 AM TIME FRAME. 12Z NAM HAS
SIMILAR ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT 09Z MONDAY. 12Z GFS LEAST ROBUST
OF THE 3 12Z MODELS MENTIONED. GRIDS HAVE THE CHC TSTM IN SNJ AND
THE THE DELMARVA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND WARM (AFTER EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS RACE NE AT 50 KTS (NEAR 60 MPH). RECORD WARMTH
EXPECTED AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH. BLENDED TRANSPORT
WIND SUPPORTS 40 MPH GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY 45.

MONDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MAYBE A LOW TOPPED SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY...BREEZY AND STILL WITH TEMPS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. (MOSTLY CIRRUS)

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE ECMWF IS PRETTY STABLE
THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FURTHEST WEST WITH
THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS
MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE
INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS
AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY
SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.

IF THIS FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR SUNDAY...BRIEFING PACKAGES WOULD
BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 330 PM.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS THE PRIME TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...WPC GUIDANCE WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AS A
NW FLOW APPEARS TO PREVAIL WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE HEADING
ESEWD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET FOR
MOST TERMINALS. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM
NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 12Z MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH
MVFR EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN PERIODS OF SHOWERY
RAINS. RAIN COULD BE HVY AT TIMES WITH A POSSIBLE TSTM AFTER 06Z/24
SUNDAY NIGHT. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 305 KT RANGE.
LLWS POTENTIAL AT KACY NEAR 09Z MONDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
(AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS RAPIDLY DEPART NEWD BY 14Z). SW WIND
GUST 30-38 KT. CFP/SHIFT MON EVE WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE...ESPECIALLY E PA. MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN/SNOW
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. AS IT STANDS WITH TODAYS MODEL
AND NCEP COLLABORATED GUIDANCE...PLAN ON PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO
SOME SNOW AND PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW TO MODERATE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDS IN
SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN SOME THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT. A LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO TRACK MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH, HOWEVER THE 925 MB WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MIXING OCCURS, ALTHOUGH SURFACE
GUSTS MAY BE MARGINAL. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS MAY SETUP TO OUR
NORTHEAST. SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE
BAY. THE CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
STRONGEST INFLOW SE WINDS OF POTENTIAL 35-40 KT GUSTS NEAR DAWN
MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT SW IN THE WARM SECTOR AND MAY GUST 35 KT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE NEAR RECORD WARMTH PREVAILS.

BLENDED 12Z/22 NAM/GFS TRANSPORT WIND SUPPORTS GALE GUSTS 06Z MONDAY-
02Z TUESDAY. FOR NOW THE WATCH ENDS AT 22Z MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SCA CONDS AS SEAS
AND WIND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...PLAN ON SCA CONDITIONS REDEVELOPING AS A COASTAL
LOW DEVELOPS. SMALL POTENTIAL FOR A GALE LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG  402
NEAR TERM...GORSE 402
SHORT TERM...GORSE 402
LONG TERM...DRAG 402
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 402
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 402
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 221917
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
217 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD MONDAY MORNING, AND AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY TUESDAY ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUICK UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDS MOVING INTO MANY
AREAS FASTER, AND ALSO TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES AS ENOUGH MID LEVEL
FORCING IS ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BAND OF PRECIPITATION. THE
LOW-LEVELS ARE RATHER DRY SO MAINLY JUST SOME SPRINKLES.

OTHERWISE AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE
HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL OCCUR
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST CLOSER
TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISENTROPIC
LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER AIRMASS AT
THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND EVEN SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA. THIS IS
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A CHC THAT SOME OF THIS GRAZES OUR
FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT THERE,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY. IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
WHICH WOULD EITHER RESULT IN VIRGA OR SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
LOW CHC POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE,
WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY. ANY LIGHT INTENSITY WOULD FAVOR DEW
POINTS INCREASING WITH LESS OF A TEMPERATURE DROP. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED THOUGH AND A MENTION REMAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND THEN
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THESE COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AND A MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP WITH
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN STORE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PD AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA.

THEN, LOW PRES WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO
MOVE NEWD. THE WMFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE
REGION SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW REALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE MIDSECTION
OF THE NATION. THE BEST WAA IS SUN NIGHT AND THIS IS THE WETTEST
PERIOD WITH RAIN, SOME HEAVY AT TIMES. WE GET DRY SLOTTED LATER
MON AND IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPS WILL SKYROCKET AND COULD REACH
RECORD VALUES IN SOME LOCATIONS, THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER CHC OF PRECIP MON EVE BEFORE
HIGH PRES BUILD BACK IN FOR LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND WED. MODEL SOLNS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ATTM. THE CMC IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH VIRTUALLY
NO IMPACT TO OUR REGION. THE GFS INDICATES THE MOST IMPACT FOR OUR
SRN AND ERN LOCATIONS WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY
ON THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A DRY HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WWD SOLN AND WOULD BRING A MOSTLY WET AND WINDY
PERIOD FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT. IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
UKMET. ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE CONFINED TO NRN AND WRN AREAS
AT THE ONSET AND THE END.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
AND ONE OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR, THIS SYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AND COULD END UP BEING NOTHING OR SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT. THE ECMWF MADE A DECENT WWD SHIFT FROM 21/12Z TO
22/00Z, THE GFS DID NOT.

AFTER THIS STORM MOVES BY WHETHER FAR OFFSHORE OR CLOSE TO THE
COAST, ANOTHER WK CDFNT MAY BRING SOME PRECIP ERLY FRI.

TEMPS WILL START OFF FAIRLY WARM ON SUNDAY, REACH THEIR ZENITH ON
MON, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH, THEN STILL BE NR NRML ON TUE BEFORE
TAKING A NOSE DIVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS SPREADING EASTWARD. A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH
AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN RAIN. RAIN COULD BE HVY
AT TIMES. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON AND MON NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS BUT STILL SOME MVFR PSBL IN
LINGERING SHWRS. CFP/WSFHT MON EVE. VFR BY EVE IF NOT SOONER. LOW
TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. BEST CHC FOR VFR IS WRN AIRPORTS.
BEST CHC FOR DEGRADED CONDS IS ERN AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INCREASE SOME THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD
OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS, HOWEVER IT MAY BE
GENERALLY MARGINAL. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHC OF GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SOME. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD RESPOND THROUGH TONIGHT AND BUILD
UP TO 5 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC, AND MAY BE SLOWER TO DECREASE SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED AND GALES ARE PSBL
IF NOT PROBABLE INTO ERLY MON AS STRONG LOW PRES IMPACTS THE
WATERS.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE....BACK END SCA CONDS AS SEAS AND WIND SUBSIDE
SLOWLY.

WED...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 221917
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
217 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD MONDAY MORNING, AND AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY TUESDAY ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A QUICK UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUDS MOVING INTO MANY
AREAS FASTER, AND ALSO TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES AS ENOUGH MID LEVEL
FORCING IS ALLOWING FOR A LITTLE BAND OF PRECIPITATION. THE
LOW-LEVELS ARE RATHER DRY SO MAINLY JUST SOME SPRINKLES.

OTHERWISE AS THE FLOW BACKS SOME MORE IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE
HIGH SLIDING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A LARGE AREA OF WAA WILL OCCUR
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS MORE NOTED TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST CLOSER
TO THE CORE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISENTROPIC
LIFT AS THE WARMING CHIPS AWAY AT THE REMAINING COOLER AIRMASS AT
THE SURFACE. THIS PROCESS WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS
SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WAA AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE HAS
BEEN GENERATING AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN AND EVEN SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA. THIS IS
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE IS A CHC THAT SOME OF THIS GRAZES OUR
FAR NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
LOW-LEVEL JET PASSING TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH THE BETTER LIFT THERE,
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT AND SPOTTY. IN THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
WHICH WOULD EITHER RESULT IN VIRGA OR SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
THERE IS LITTLE MODEL SUPPORT TO BRING IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION,
AND THE WPC QPF IS PRETTY MUCH DRY. SINCE THIS LOOKS LIKE A RATHER
LOW CHC POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WITH LOW CONFIDENCE,
WE WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY. ANY LIGHT INTENSITY WOULD FAVOR DEW
POINTS INCREASING WITH LESS OF A TEMPERATURE DROP. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED THOUGH AND A MENTION REMAINS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND THEN
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS. THESE COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN THE LOW DEW
POINTS. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF SOME CLOUDS, A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WIND AND A MODERATING AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
NOT AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP WITH
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AMPLIFYING DURING SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP
DOWNSTREAM, RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH TO BECOME ANCHORED
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WITH WAA CONTINUING
AND EVEN STRENGTHENING SOME DURING THE DAY, A WARMER DAY IS
ANTICIPATED.

THE LOCATION OF A LOW-LEVEL JET IN COMBINATION OF SOME SHORT WAVE
ENERGY AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD KEEP ANY MORNING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES IN
THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND, SOME THINNING SHOULD OCCUR FOR A TIME
BEFORE AN INCREASE DEVELOPS AGAIN TOWARD EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT
ANY ORGANIZED LIFT REMAINS AWAY FROM OUR AREA, THEREFORE WE WILL
CARRY A DRY FORECAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN STORE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PD AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA.

THEN, LOW PRES WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO
MOVE NEWD. THE WMFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE
REGION SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW REALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE MIDSECTION
OF THE NATION. THE BEST WAA IS SUN NIGHT AND THIS IS THE WETTEST
PERIOD WITH RAIN, SOME HEAVY AT TIMES. WE GET DRY SLOTTED LATER
MON AND IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPS WILL SKYROCKET AND COULD REACH
RECORD VALUES IN SOME LOCATIONS, THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH ANOTHER CHC OF PRECIP MON EVE BEFORE
HIGH PRES BUILD BACK IN FOR LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND WED. MODEL SOLNS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ATTM. THE CMC IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH VIRTUALLY
NO IMPACT TO OUR REGION. THE GFS INDICATES THE MOST IMPACT FOR OUR
SRN AND ERN LOCATIONS WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY
ON THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A DRY HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WWD SOLN AND WOULD BRING A MOSTLY WET AND WINDY
PERIOD FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT. IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
UKMET. ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE CONFINED TO NRN AND WRN AREAS
AT THE ONSET AND THE END.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
AND ONE OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR, THIS SYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AND COULD END UP BEING NOTHING OR SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT. THE ECMWF MADE A DECENT WWD SHIFT FROM 21/12Z TO
22/00Z, THE GFS DID NOT.

AFTER THIS STORM MOVES BY WHETHER FAR OFFSHORE OR CLOSE TO THE
COAST, ANOTHER WK CDFNT MAY BRING SOME PRECIP ERLY FRI.

TEMPS WILL START OFF FAIRLY WARM ON SUNDAY, REACH THEIR ZENITH ON
MON, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH, THEN STILL BE NR NRML ON TUE BEFORE
TAKING A NOSE DIVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CEILINGS SPREADING EASTWARD. A FEW
SPRINKLES WILL BE AROUND MAINLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH
AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN RAIN. RAIN COULD BE HVY
AT TIMES. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON AND MON NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS BUT STILL SOME MVFR PSBL IN
LINGERING SHWRS. CFP/WSFHT MON EVE. VFR BY EVE IF NOT SOONER. LOW
TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. BEST CHC FOR VFR IS WRN AIRPORTS.
BEST CHC FOR DEGRADED CONDS IS ERN AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INCREASE SOME THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD
OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS, HOWEVER IT MAY BE
GENERALLY MARGINAL. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHC OF GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SOME. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD RESPOND THROUGH TONIGHT AND BUILD
UP TO 5 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC, AND MAY BE SLOWER TO DECREASE SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED AND GALES ARE PSBL
IF NOT PROBABLE INTO ERLY MON AS STRONG LOW PRES IMPACTS THE
WATERS.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE....BACK END SCA CONDS AS SEAS AND WIND SUBSIDE
SLOWLY.

WED...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221640
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1140 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD MONDAY MORNING, AND AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY TUESDAY ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD.

SOME INCREASE IN THE WAA IS OCCURRING TODAY ESPECIALLY ALOFT, AND
THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE 12Z STERLING, VA RAOB WITH A WARM LAYER
CENTERED JUST ABOVE 900 MB. THE WAA AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR, WITH THIS BEST NOTED NEAR OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRYING TO BRING SOME
LIGHT QPF INTO PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WITH THE WAA, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
WOULD BE EITHER RAIN, FREEZING RAIN OR PERHAPS A FEW ICE PELLETS.
THESE SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS, WHICH COULD ALSO SUGGEST THAT IT COULD BE VIRGA. THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING RAIN HAVE BASICALLY BEEN 30 PERCENT OR
LESS FOR A TIME FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS CENTERED AROUND 00Z.
THIS IS LOW AND AND IT APPEARS LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION REACHES
THE GROUND. THEREFORE, WE WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

OTHERWISE, SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE, WAA
AND LOW-LEVEL JET PUSH. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS, BETTER MIXING
IS OCCURRING AND THEREFORE SOME GUSTINESS IN THE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE THESE DROP OFF TOWARD EVENING. THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN
THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.,
AND BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT (AS
EVIDENCED BY 500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND POSITIVE PRESSURE
ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 PV SURFACE) STAYING JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE LIFT IS, AND GIVEN THAT THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT, HAVE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES FOR A TIME. BUT IT STILL SEEMS LIKE AN UNLIKELY EVENT FOR OUR
REGION, SO MOST OF THAT REGION HAS POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT.

IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA, IT WILL BE EITHER IN THE
FORM OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN (DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE).
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A ROBUST AND DEEP WARM LAYER. WHILE THERE COULD
BE SOME SEEDER FEEDER CIRRUS CLOUDS PROPAGATING OVERHEAD, WITH THE
MELTING LAYER AROUND 8000 FT MSL, ANY ICE CRYSTALS WOULD MELT
THROUGH THE WARM LAYER. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
EVEN AT THE SURFACE, SEE VERY FEW LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
BEFORE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CLOSES. SINCE
TOO, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY SMALL AT THIS TIME, WILL
NOT ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN STORE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PD AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA.

THEN, LOW PRES WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO
MOVE NEWD. THE WMFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE
REGION SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW REALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE MIDSECTION
OF THE NATION. BASED ON THE LATEST GUID MOVG THE PRECIP IN SLOWER,
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE SUNDAY DAYTIME HOURS.  THE BEST WAA IS
SUN NIGHT AND THIS IS THE WETTEST PERIOD WITH RAIN, SOME HEAVY AT
TIMES. WE GET DRY SLOTTED LATER MON AND IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPS
WILL SKYROCKET AND COULD REACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME LOCATIONS,
THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER CHC OF PRECIP MON EVE BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILD BACK IN FOR
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND WED. MODEL SOLNS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ATTM. THE CMC IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH VIRTUALLY
NO IMPACT TO OUR REGION. THE GFS INDICATES THE MOST IMPACT FOR OUR
SRN AND ERN LOCATIONS WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY
ON THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A DRY HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WWD SOLN AND WOULD BRING A MOSTLY WET AND WINDY
PERIOD FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT. IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
UKMET. ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE CONFINED TO NRN AND WRN AREAS
AT THE ONSET AND THE END.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
AND ONE OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR, THIS SYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AND COULD END UP BEING NOTHING OR SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT. THE ECMWF MADE A DECENT WWD SHIFT FROM 21/12Z TO
22/00Z, THE GFS DID NOT.

AFTER THIS STORM MOVES BY WHETHER FAR OFFSHORE OR CLOSE TO THE
COAST, ANOTHER WK CDFNT MAY BRING SOME PRECIP ERLY FRI.

TEMPS WILL START OFF FAIRLY WARM ON SUNDAY, REACH THEIR ZENITH ON
MON, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH, THEN STILL BE NR NRML ON TUE BEFORE
TAKING A NOSE DIVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR, WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY FOR
THE KABE AND KRDG AREAS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN RAIN. RAIN COULD BE HVY
AT TIMES. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON AND MON NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS BUT STILL SOME MVFR PSBL IN
LINGERING SHWRS. CFP/WSFHT MON EVE. VFR BY EVE IF NOT SOONER. LOW
TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. BEST CHC FOR VFR IS WRN AIRPORTS.
BEST CHC FOR DEGRADED CONDS IS ERN AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INCREASE SOME THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD
OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS, HOWEVER IT MAY BE
GENERALLY MARGINAL. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHC OF GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SOME. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD RESPOND THROUGH TONIGHT AND BUILD
UP TO 5 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC, AND MAY BE SLOWER TO DECREASE SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED AND GALES ARE PSBL
IF NOT PROBABLE INTO ERLY MON AS STRONG LOW PRES IMPACTS THE
WATERS.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE....BACK END SCA CONDS AS SEAS AND WIND SUBSIDE
SLOWLY.

WED...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221640
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1140 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD MONDAY MORNING, AND AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY TUESDAY ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD.

SOME INCREASE IN THE WAA IS OCCURRING TODAY ESPECIALLY ALOFT, AND
THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE 12Z STERLING, VA RAOB WITH A WARM LAYER
CENTERED JUST ABOVE 900 MB. THE WAA AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR, WITH THIS BEST NOTED NEAR OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRYING TO BRING SOME
LIGHT QPF INTO PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WITH THE WAA, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE
WOULD BE EITHER RAIN, FREEZING RAIN OR PERHAPS A FEW ICE PELLETS.
THESE SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS, WHICH COULD ALSO SUGGEST THAT IT COULD BE VIRGA. THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING RAIN HAVE BASICALLY BEEN 30 PERCENT OR
LESS FOR A TIME FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS CENTERED AROUND 00Z.
THIS IS LOW AND AND IT APPEARS LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION REACHES
THE GROUND. THEREFORE, WE WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS.

OTHERWISE, SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE, WAA
AND LOW-LEVEL JET PUSH. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS, BETTER MIXING
IS OCCURRING AND THEREFORE SOME GUSTINESS IN THE WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE THESE DROP OFF TOWARD EVENING. THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN
THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.,
AND BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT (AS
EVIDENCED BY 500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND POSITIVE PRESSURE
ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 PV SURFACE) STAYING JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE LIFT IS, AND GIVEN THAT THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT, HAVE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES FOR A TIME. BUT IT STILL SEEMS LIKE AN UNLIKELY EVENT FOR OUR
REGION, SO MOST OF THAT REGION HAS POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT.

IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA, IT WILL BE EITHER IN THE
FORM OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN (DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE).
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A ROBUST AND DEEP WARM LAYER. WHILE THERE COULD
BE SOME SEEDER FEEDER CIRRUS CLOUDS PROPAGATING OVERHEAD, WITH THE
MELTING LAYER AROUND 8000 FT MSL, ANY ICE CRYSTALS WOULD MELT
THROUGH THE WARM LAYER. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
EVEN AT THE SURFACE, SEE VERY FEW LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
BEFORE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CLOSES. SINCE
TOO, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY SMALL AT THIS TIME, WILL
NOT ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN STORE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PD AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA.

THEN, LOW PRES WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO
MOVE NEWD. THE WMFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE
REGION SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW REALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE MIDSECTION
OF THE NATION. BASED ON THE LATEST GUID MOVG THE PRECIP IN SLOWER,
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE SUNDAY DAYTIME HOURS.  THE BEST WAA IS
SUN NIGHT AND THIS IS THE WETTEST PERIOD WITH RAIN, SOME HEAVY AT
TIMES. WE GET DRY SLOTTED LATER MON AND IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPS
WILL SKYROCKET AND COULD REACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME LOCATIONS,
THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER CHC OF PRECIP MON EVE BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILD BACK IN FOR
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND WED. MODEL SOLNS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ATTM. THE CMC IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH VIRTUALLY
NO IMPACT TO OUR REGION. THE GFS INDICATES THE MOST IMPACT FOR OUR
SRN AND ERN LOCATIONS WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY
ON THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A DRY HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WWD SOLN AND WOULD BRING A MOSTLY WET AND WINDY
PERIOD FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT. IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
UKMET. ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE CONFINED TO NRN AND WRN AREAS
AT THE ONSET AND THE END.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
AND ONE OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR, THIS SYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AND COULD END UP BEING NOTHING OR SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT. THE ECMWF MADE A DECENT WWD SHIFT FROM 21/12Z TO
22/00Z, THE GFS DID NOT.

AFTER THIS STORM MOVES BY WHETHER FAR OFFSHORE OR CLOSE TO THE
COAST, ANOTHER WK CDFNT MAY BRING SOME PRECIP ERLY FRI.

TEMPS WILL START OFF FAIRLY WARM ON SUNDAY, REACH THEIR ZENITH ON
MON, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH, THEN STILL BE NR NRML ON TUE BEFORE
TAKING A NOSE DIVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR, WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS ESPECIALLY FOR
THE KABE AND KRDG AREAS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 5,000 FEET.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY...VFR, WITH CEILINGS AT TIMES ABOVE 5,000 FEET. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 5-8 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEAST LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN RAIN. RAIN COULD BE HVY
AT TIMES. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON AND MON NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS BUT STILL SOME MVFR PSBL IN
LINGERING SHWRS. CFP/WSFHT MON EVE. VFR BY EVE IF NOT SOONER. LOW
TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. BEST CHC FOR VFR IS WRN AIRPORTS.
BEST CHC FOR DEGRADED CONDS IS ERN AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
INCREASE SOME THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS SHOULD
OCCUR ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS, HOWEVER IT MAY BE
GENERALLY MARGINAL. THERE SHOULD BE A BETTER CHC OF GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SOME. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD RESPOND THROUGH TONIGHT AND BUILD
UP TO 5 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC, AND MAY BE SLOWER TO DECREASE SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED AND GALES ARE PSBL
IF NOT PROBABLE INTO ERLY MON AS STRONG LOW PRES IMPACTS THE
WATERS.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE....BACK END SCA CONDS AS SEAS AND WIND SUBSIDE
SLOWLY.

WED...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221427
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD MONDAY MORNING, AND AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY TUESDAY ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH A
CLEAR SKY, LOW DEW POINTS AND NO WIND RESULTED IN A VERY COLD START
TO THE DAY. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD.

SOME INCREASE IN THE WAA IS OCCURRING TODAY ESPECIALLY ALOFT, AND
THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE 12Z STERLING, VA RAOB WITH A PRONOUNCED
INVERSION. THE WAA AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
WITH THIS BEST NOTED NEAR OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WITH THE WAA, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE
EITHER RAIN, FREEZING RAIN OR PERHAPS A FEW ICE PELLETS. THESE
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS,
WHICH COULD ALSO SUGGEST THAT IT COULD BE VIRGA. THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING RAIN ARE BASICALLY 30 PERCENT OR LESS
FOR A TIME FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS CENTERED AROUND 00Z. THIS
IS LOW AND CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND IS LOW. THEREFORE, WE KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING TOWARD EARLY
EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE, SOME MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED BASED
ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED
IN. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ATTM, AS
SOME BETTER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.,
AND BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT (AS
EVIDENCED BY 500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND POSITIVE PRESSURE
ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 PV SURFACE) STAYING JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE LIFT IS, AND GIVEN THAT THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT, HAVE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES FOR A TIME. BUT IT STILL SEEMS LIKE AN UNLIKELY EVENT FOR OUR
REGION, SO MOST OF THAT REGION HAS POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT.

IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA, IT WILL BE EITHER IN THE
FORM OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN (DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE).
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A ROBUST AND DEEP WARM LAYER. WHILE THERE COULD
BE SOME SEEDER FEEDER CIRRUS CLOUDS PROPAGATING OVERHEAD, WITH THE
MELTING LAYER AROUND 8000 FT MSL, ANY ICE CRYSTALS WOULD MELT
THROUGH THE WARM LAYER. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
EVEN AT THE SURFACE, SEE VERY FEW LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
BEFORE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CLOSES. SINCE
TOO, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY SMALL AT THIS TIME, WILL
NOT ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN STORE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PD AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA.

THEN, LOW PRES WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO
MOVE NEWD. THE WMFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE
REGION SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW REALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE MIDSECTION
OF THE NATION. BASED ON THE LATEST GUID MOVG THE PRECIP IN SLOWER,
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE SUNDAY DAYTIME HOURS.  THE BEST WAA IS
SUN NIGHT AND THIS IS THE WETTEST PERIOD WITH RAIN, SOME HEAVY AT
TIMES. WE GET DRY SLOTTED LATER MON AND IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPS
WILL SKYROCKET AND COULD REACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME LOCATIONS,
THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER CHC OF PRECIP MON EVE BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILD BACK IN FOR
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND WED. MODEL SOLNS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ATTM. THE CMC IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH VIRTUALLY
NO IMPACT TO OUR REGION. THE GFS INDICATES THE MOST IMPACT FOR OUR
SRN AND ERN LOCATIONS WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY
ON THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A DRY HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WWD SOLN AND WOULD BRING A MOSTLY WET AND WINDY
PERIOD FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT. IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
UKMET. ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE CONFINED TO NRN AND WRN AREAS
AT THE ONSET AND THE END.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
AND ONE OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR, THIS SYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AND COULD END UP BEING NOTHING OR SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT. THE ECMWF MADE A DECENT WWD SHIFT FROM 21/12Z TO
22/00Z, THE GFS DID NOT.

AFTER THIS STORM MOVES BY WHETHER FAR OFFSHORE OR CLOSE TO THE
COAST, ANOTHER WK CDFNT MAY BRING SOME PRECIP ERLY FRI.

TEMPS WILL START OFF FAIRLY WARM ON SUNDAY, REACH THEIR ZENITH ON
MON, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH, THEN STILL BE NR NRML ON TUE BEFORE
TAKING A NOSE DIVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR, ALTHOUGH SOME MID TO MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS, BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. THERE CAN BE SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 18 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 8,000 FEET.
ANY VERY LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN SHOULD STAY NORTH AND WEST OF
KABE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR, WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS BY EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN RAIN. RAIN COULD BE HVY
AT TIMES. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON AND MON NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS BUT STILL SOME MVFR PSBL IN
LINGERING SHWRS. CFP/WSFHT MON EVE. VFR BY EVE IF NOT SOONER. LOW
TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. BEST CHC FOR VFR IS WRN AIRPORTS.
BEST CHC FOR DEGRADED CONDS IS ERN AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AROUND MID DAY TODAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 FT ARE EXPECTED IN
THE ATLANTIC, AND MAY BE SLOWER TO DECREASE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR
NOW HAVE ISSUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6
AM SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED AND GALES ARE PSBL
IF NOT PROBABLE INTO ERLY MON AS STRONG LOW PRES IMPACTS THE
WATERS.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE....BACK END SCA CONDS AS SEAS AND WIND SUBSIDE
SLOWLY.

WED...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221427
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD SUNDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD MONDAY MORNING, AND AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN
CANADA BY TUESDAY ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ALONG WITH A
CLEAR SKY, LOW DEW POINTS AND NO WIND RESULTED IN A VERY COLD START
TO THE DAY. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD.

SOME INCREASE IN THE WAA IS OCCURRING TODAY ESPECIALLY ALOFT, AND
THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE 12Z STERLING, VA RAOB WITH A PRONOUNCED
INVERSION. THE WAA AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
WITH THIS BEST NOTED NEAR OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO
PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WITH THE WAA, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WOULD BE
EITHER RAIN, FREEZING RAIN OR PERHAPS A FEW ICE PELLETS. THESE
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST LEVELS,
WHICH COULD ALSO SUGGEST THAT IT COULD BE VIRGA. THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING RAIN ARE BASICALLY 30 PERCENT OR LESS
FOR A TIME FOR PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS CENTERED AROUND 00Z. THIS
IS LOW AND CONFIDENCE IN MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND IS LOW. THEREFORE, WE KEPT SOME LOW POPS GOING TOWARD EARLY
EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

OTHERWISE, SOME MOSTLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AS THE FLOW STARTS TO BACK
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED BASED
ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED
IN. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ATTM, AS
SOME BETTER MIXING THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.,
AND BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT (AS
EVIDENCED BY 500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND POSITIVE PRESSURE
ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 PV SURFACE) STAYING JUST NORTH OF OUR REGION.
HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE LIFT IS, AND GIVEN THAT THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT, HAVE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES FOR A TIME. BUT IT STILL SEEMS LIKE AN UNLIKELY EVENT FOR OUR
REGION, SO MOST OF THAT REGION HAS POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT.

IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA, IT WILL BE EITHER IN THE
FORM OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN (DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE).
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A ROBUST AND DEEP WARM LAYER. WHILE THERE COULD
BE SOME SEEDER FEEDER CIRRUS CLOUDS PROPAGATING OVERHEAD, WITH THE
MELTING LAYER AROUND 8000 FT MSL, ANY ICE CRYSTALS WOULD MELT
THROUGH THE WARM LAYER. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
EVEN AT THE SURFACE, SEE VERY FEW LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
BEFORE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CLOSES. SINCE
TOO, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY SMALL AT THIS TIME, WILL
NOT ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN STORE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PD AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA.

THEN, LOW PRES WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO
MOVE NEWD. THE WMFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE
REGION SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW REALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE MIDSECTION
OF THE NATION. BASED ON THE LATEST GUID MOVG THE PRECIP IN SLOWER,
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE SUNDAY DAYTIME HOURS.  THE BEST WAA IS
SUN NIGHT AND THIS IS THE WETTEST PERIOD WITH RAIN, SOME HEAVY AT
TIMES. WE GET DRY SLOTTED LATER MON AND IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPS
WILL SKYROCKET AND COULD REACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME LOCATIONS,
THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER CHC OF PRECIP MON EVE BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILD BACK IN FOR
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND WED. MODEL SOLNS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ATTM. THE CMC IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH VIRTUALLY
NO IMPACT TO OUR REGION. THE GFS INDICATES THE MOST IMPACT FOR OUR
SRN AND ERN LOCATIONS WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY
ON THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A DRY HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WWD SOLN AND WOULD BRING A MOSTLY WET AND WINDY
PERIOD FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT. IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
UKMET. ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE CONFINED TO NRN AND WRN AREAS
AT THE ONSET AND THE END.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
AND ONE OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR, THIS SYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AND COULD END UP BEING NOTHING OR SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT. THE ECMWF MADE A DECENT WWD SHIFT FROM 21/12Z TO
22/00Z, THE GFS DID NOT.

AFTER THIS STORM MOVES BY WHETHER FAR OFFSHORE OR CLOSE TO THE
COAST, ANOTHER WK CDFNT MAY BRING SOME PRECIP ERLY FRI.

TEMPS WILL START OFF FAIRLY WARM ON SUNDAY, REACH THEIR ZENITH ON
MON, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH, THEN STILL BE NR NRML ON TUE BEFORE
TAKING A NOSE DIVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR, ALTHOUGH SOME MID TO MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS, BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. THERE CAN BE SOME
GUSTS TO AROUND 18 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH AREAS OF CEILINGS MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 8,000 FEET.
ANY VERY LIGHT RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN SHOULD STAY NORTH AND WEST OF
KABE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR, WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS BY EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN RAIN. RAIN COULD BE HVY
AT TIMES. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON AND MON NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS BUT STILL SOME MVFR PSBL IN
LINGERING SHWRS. CFP/WSFHT MON EVE. VFR BY EVE IF NOT SOONER. LOW
TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. BEST CHC FOR VFR IS WRN AIRPORTS.
BEST CHC FOR DEGRADED CONDS IS ERN AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AROUND MID DAY TODAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 FT ARE EXPECTED IN
THE ATLANTIC, AND MAY BE SLOWER TO DECREASE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR
NOW HAVE ISSUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6
AM SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED AND GALES ARE PSBL
IF NOT PROBABLE INTO ERLY MON AS STRONG LOW PRES IMPACTS THE
WATERS.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE....BACK END SCA CONDS AS SEAS AND WIND SUBSIDE
SLOWLY.

WED...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
FOR OUR EIGHT CLIMATE SITES, HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOVEMBER 24TH AND THE MOST RECENT YEAR OF OCCURRENCE.

RECORD HIGHS 11/24:

ACY:  72  SET IN 1999
PHL:  71  SET IN 1979
ILG:  73  SET IN 1979
ABE:  69  SET IN 1931
TTN:  71  SET IN 1979
GED:  75  SET IN 1992
RDG:  69  SET IN 1979
MPO:  64  SET IN 1931

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...DRAG/KLINE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 221116
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
616 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EASTWARD, THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND IT WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND BRING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING AND AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
TUESDAY, ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THEN, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHEAST, LEAVING THE REGION
WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. AS SUCH, EXPECT MOIST AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS, HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND
5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT (AS EVIDENCED BY 500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND POSITIVE PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 PV SURFACE) STAYING JUST
NORTH OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE LIFT IS, AND GIVEN
THAT THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT, HAVE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS IN THE POCONOS, LEHIGH VALLEY, AND NW NJ. BUT IT
STILL SEEMS LIKE AN UNLIKELY EVENT FOR OUR REGION, SO MOST OF THE
REGION HAS POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT.

IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA, IT WILL BE EITHER IN THE
FORM OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN (DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE).
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A ROBUST AND DEEP WARM LAYER. WHILE THERE COULD
BE SOME SEEDER FEEDER CIRRUS CLOUDS PROPAGATING OVERHEAD, WITH THE
MELTING LAYER AROUND 8000 FT MSL, ANY ICE CRYSTALS WOULD MELT
THROUGH THE WARM LAYER. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
EVEN AT THE SURFACE, SEE VERY FEW LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
BEFORE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CLOSES. SINCE
TOO, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY SMALL AT THIS TIME, WILL
NOT ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN STORE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PD AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA.

THEN, LOW PRES WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO
MOVE NEWD. THE WMFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE
REGION SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW REALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE MIDSECTION
OF THE NATION. BASED ON THE LATEST GUID MOVG THE PRECIP IN SLOWER,
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE SUNDAY DAYTIME HOURS.  THE BEST WAA IS
SUN NIGHT AND THIS IS THE WETTEST PERIOD WITH RAIN, SOME HEAVY AT
TIMES. WE GET DRY SLOTTED LATER MON AND IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPS
WILL SKYROCKET AND COULD REACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME LOCATIONS,
THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER CHC OF PRECIP MON EVE BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILD BACK IN FOR
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND WED. MODEL SOLNS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ATTM. THE CMC IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH VIRTUALLY
NO IMPACT TO OUR REGION. THE GFS INDICATES THE MOST IMPACT FOR OUR
SRN AND ERN LOCATIONS WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY
ON THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A DRY HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WWD SOLN AND WOULD BRING A MOSTLY WET AND WINDY
PERIOD FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT. IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
UKMET. ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE CONFINED TO NRN AAND WRN AREAS
AT THE ONSET AND THE END.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
AND ONE OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR, THIS SYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AND COULD END UP BEING NOTHING OR SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT. THE ECMWF MADE A DECENT WWD SHIFT FROM 21/12Z TO
22/00Z, THE GFS DID NOT.

AFTER THIS STORMS MOVES BY WHETHER FAR OFFSHORE OR CLOSE TO THE
COAST, ANOTHER WK CDFNT MAY BRING SOME PRECIP ERLY FRI.

TEMPS WILL START OFF FAIRLY WARM ON SUNDAY, REACH THEIR ZENITH ON
MON, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH, THEN STILL BE NR NRML ON TUE BEFORE
TAKING A NOSE DIVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 18Z,
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE, FIRST HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS, THEN MID LEVEL
CLOUDS (AT OR ABOVE 5000 FT AGL) WILL MOVE IN CLOSER TO 00Z. THERE
IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE OF -RA OR -FZRA GENERALLY N AND W OF THE
I95 CORRIDOR (INCLUDING KABE AND KRDG) BETWEEN 00 AND 09Z.
HOWEVER, AT KRDG AND KABE IT IS ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE, AND ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE -RA.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR, WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS BY EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN RAIN. RAIN COULD BE HVY
AT TIMES. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON AND MON NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS BUT STILL SOME MVFR PSBL IN
LINGERING SHWRS. CFP/WSFHT MON EVE. VFR BY EVE IF NOT SOONER. LOW
TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. BEST CHC FOR VFR IS WRN AIRPORTS.
BEST CHC FOR DEGRADED CONDS IS ERN AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BY MID DAY TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE ATLANTIC, AND
MAY BE SLOWER TO DECREASE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE ISSUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED AND GALES ARE PSBL
IF NOT PROBABLE INTO ERLY MON AS STRONG LOW PRES IMPACTS THE
WATERS.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE....BACK END SCA CONDS AS SEAS AND WIND SUBSIDE
SLOWLY.

WED...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR 11/22.

ATLANTIC CITY 12 SET IN 1879
PHILADELPHIA 14 SET IN 1880
WILMINGTON 17 SET IN 1964

ALLENTOWN 17 SET IN 1969 AND 1964 *HAS ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AS
ALLENTOWN HAS HAD A LOW SO FAR OF 16*

TRENTON 15 SET IN 1880
GEORGETOWN 16 SET IN 1987
READING 16 SET IN 1969
MOUNT POCONO 5 SET IN 1969

SO FAR ONLY ALLENTOWN HAS SET A RECORD LOW. HOWEVER A FEW SITES
REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF THEIR RECORDS SO WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SENDING OUT ANY RECORD EVENT REPORTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220857
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EASTWARD, THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND IT WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND BRING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING AND AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
TUESDAY, ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THEN, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHEAST, LEAVING THE REGION
WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. AS SUCH, EXPECT MOIST AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS, HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND
5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT (AS EVIDENCED BY 500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND POSITIVE PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 PV SURFACE) STAYING JUST
NORTH OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE LIFT IS, AND GIVEN
THAT THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT, HAVE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS IN THE POCONOS, LEHIGH VALLEY, AND NW NJ. BUT IT
STILL SEEMS LIKE AN UNLIKELY EVENT FOR OUR REGION, SO MOST OF THE
REGION HAS POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT.

IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA, IT WILL BE EITHER IN THE
FORM OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN (DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE).
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A ROBUST AND DEEP WARM LAYER. WHILE THERE COULD
BE SOME SEEDER FEEDER CIRRUS CLOUDS PROPAGATING OVERHEAD, WITH THE
MELTING LAYER AROUND 8000 FT MSL, ANY ICE CRYSTALS WOULD MELT
THROUGH THE WARM LAYER. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
EVEN AT THE SURFACE, SEE VERY FEW LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
BEFORE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CLOSES. SINCE
TOO, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY SMALL AT THIS TIME, WILL
NOT ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN STORE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA.

THEN, LOW PRES WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO
MOVE NEWD. THE WMFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE
REGION SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW REALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE MIDSECTION
OF THE NATION. BASED ON THE LATEST GUID MOVG THE PRECIP IN SLOWER,
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE SUNDAY DAYTIME HOURS.  THE BEST WAA IS
SUN NIGHT AND THIS IS THE WETTEST PERIOD WITH RAIN, SOME HEAVY AT
TIMES. WE GET DRY SLOTTED LATER MON AND IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPS
WILL SKYROCKET AND COULD REACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME LOCATIONS,
THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER CHC OF PRECIP MON EVE BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILD BACK IN FOR
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND WED. MODEL SOLNS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ATTM. THE CMC IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH VIRTUALLY
NO IMPACT TO OUR REGION. THE GFS INDICATES THE MOST IMPACT FOR OUR
SRN AND ERN LOCATIONS WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY
ON THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A DRY HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WWD SOLN AND WOULD BRING A MOSTLY WET AND WINDY
PERIOD FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT. IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
UKMET. ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE CONFINED TO NRN AAND WRN AREAS
AT THE ONSET AND THE END.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
AND ONE OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR, THIS SYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AND COULD END UP BEING NOTHING OR SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT. THE ECMWF MADE A DECENT WWD SHIFT FROM 21/12Z TO
22/00Z, THE GFS DID NOT.

AFTER THIS STORMS MOVES BY WHETHER FAR OFFSHORE OR CLOSE TO THE
COAST, ANOTHER WK CDFNT MAY BRING SOME PRECIP ERLY FRI.

TEMPS WILL START OFF FAIRLY WARM ON SUNDAY, REACH THEIR ZENITH ON
MON, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH, THEN STILL BE NR NRML ON TUE BEFORE
TAKING A NOSE DIVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 18Z, MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE DE RIVER VALLEY,
INCLUDING KRDG AND KABE, BUT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE
5000 FT AGL. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE OF -RA OR -FZRA IN THIS
AREA BETWEEN 00 AND 09Z. HOWEVER, AT KRDG AND KABE, IT IS ONLY A 20
PERCENT CHANCE, AND ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE -RA.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR, WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS BY EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN RAIN. RAIN COULD BE HVY
AT TIMES. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON AND MON NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS BUT STILL SOME MVFR PSBL IN
LINGERING SHWRS. CFP/WSFHT MON EVE. VFR BY EVE IF NOT SOONER. LOW
TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. BEST CHC FOR VFR IS WRN AIRPORTS.
BEST CHC FOR DEGRADED CONDS IS ERN AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BY MID DAY TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE ATLANTIC, AND
MAY BE SLOWER TO DECREASE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE ISSUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED AND GALES ARE PSBL
IF NOT PROBABLE INTO ERLY MON AS STRONG LOW PRES IMPACTS THE
WATERS.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE....BACK END SCA CONDS AS SEAS AND WIND SUBSIDE
SLOWLY.

WED...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOWS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR 11/22.

ATLANTIC CITY 12 SET IN 1879
PHILADELPHIA 14 SET IN 1880
WILMINGTON 17 SET IN 1964

ALLENTOWN 17 SET IN 1969 AND 1964 *HAS ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AS
ALLENTOWN HAS HAD A LOW SO FAR OF 16*

TRENTON 15 SET IN 1880
GEORGETOWN 16 SET IN 1987
READING 16 SET IN 1969
MOUNT POCONO 5 SET IN 1969

HERE ARE THE FORECASTED LOWS FOR THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC CITY 18
PHILADELPHIA 23
WILMINGTON 20
ALLENTOWN 16
TRENTON 21
GEORGETOWN 18
READING 16

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN INCREASING, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE SENDING OUT ANY RECORD EVENT REPORTS.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220857
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EASTWARD, THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND IT WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND BRING A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES BY MONDAY MORNING AND AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN CANADA BY
TUESDAY, ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THEN, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHEAST, LEAVING THE REGION
WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. AS SUCH, EXPECT MOIST AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THUS, HIGHS TODAY SHOULD BE AROUND
5 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW
THE BEST SYNOPTIC LIFT (AS EVIDENCED BY 500 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE
AND POSITIVE PRESSURE ADVECTION ON THE 1.5 PV SURFACE) STAYING JUST
NORTH OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE LIFT IS, AND GIVEN
THAT THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT, HAVE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED POPS IN THE POCONOS, LEHIGH VALLEY, AND NW NJ. BUT IT
STILL SEEMS LIKE AN UNLIKELY EVENT FOR OUR REGION, SO MOST OF THE
REGION HAS POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT.

IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA, IT WILL BE EITHER IN THE
FORM OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN (DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURE).
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A ROBUST AND DEEP WARM LAYER. WHILE THERE COULD
BE SOME SEEDER FEEDER CIRRUS CLOUDS PROPAGATING OVERHEAD, WITH THE
MELTING LAYER AROUND 8000 FT MSL, ANY ICE CRYSTALS WOULD MELT
THROUGH THE WARM LAYER. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION
EVEN AT THE SURFACE, SEE VERY FEW LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING
BEFORE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION CLOSES. SINCE
TOO, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS VERY SMALL AT THIS TIME, WILL
NOT ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A NICE WARMING TREND IS IN STORE AT THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD AS
HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE AND STRONG SWLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
AREA.

THEN, LOW PRES WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND BEGIN TO
MOVE NEWD. THE WMFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE THRU THE
REGION SUN NIGHT AS THE LOW REALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE MIDSECTION
OF THE NATION. BASED ON THE LATEST GUID MOVG THE PRECIP IN SLOWER,
HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM THE SUNDAY DAYTIME HOURS.  THE BEST WAA IS
SUN NIGHT AND THIS IS THE WETTEST PERIOD WITH RAIN, SOME HEAVY AT
TIMES. WE GET DRY SLOTTED LATER MON AND IN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPS
WILL SKYROCKET AND COULD REACH RECORD VALUES IN SOME LOCATIONS,
THEN THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER CHC OF PRECIP MON EVE BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILD BACK IN FOR
LATER MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT.

THEN, ALL EYES TURN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
AROUND WED. MODEL SOLNS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE AND CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH BELOW AVERAGE ATTM. THE CMC IS WELL OFFSHORE WITH VIRTUALLY
NO IMPACT TO OUR REGION. THE GFS INDICATES THE MOST IMPACT FOR OUR
SRN AND ERN LOCATIONS WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE THE LOW PULLS AWAY
ON THANKSGIVING, BRINGING A DRY HOLIDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE
STRONGEST AND MOST WWD SOLN AND WOULD BRING A MOSTLY WET AND WINDY
PERIOD FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT. IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE
UKMET. ANY WINTRY PRECIP WOULD BE CONFINED TO NRN AAND WRN AREAS
AT THE ONSET AND THE END.

WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL
AND ONE OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR, THIS SYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AND COULD END UP BEING NOTHING OR SOMETHING
SIGNIFICANT. THE ECMWF MADE A DECENT WWD SHIFT FROM 21/12Z TO
22/00Z, THE GFS DID NOT.

AFTER THIS STORMS MOVES BY WHETHER FAR OFFSHORE OR CLOSE TO THE
COAST, ANOTHER WK CDFNT MAY BRING SOME PRECIP ERLY FRI.

TEMPS WILL START OFF FAIRLY WARM ON SUNDAY, REACH THEIR ZENITH ON
MON, WITH NEAR RECORD WARMTH, THEN STILL BE NR NRML ON TUE BEFORE
TAKING A NOSE DIVE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 18Z, MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE DE RIVER VALLEY,
INCLUDING KRDG AND KABE, BUT CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE
5000 FT AGL. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE OF -RA OR -FZRA IN THIS
AREA BETWEEN 00 AND 09Z. HOWEVER, AT KRDG AND KABE, IT IS ONLY A 20
PERCENT CHANCE, AND ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE -RA.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR, WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS BY EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH EARLY MON...VERY POOR FLYING CONDS WITH MVFR
EXPECTED AND IFR PSBL IF NOT PROBABLE IN RAIN. RAIN COULD BE HVY
AT TIMES. E TO SE WIND COULD GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MON AND MON NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDS BUT STILL SOME MVFR PSBL IN
LINGERING SHWRS. CFP/WSFHT MON EVE. VFR BY EVE IF NOT SOONER. LOW
TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WEDNESDAY...MUCH UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF A COASTAL
LOW. COULD BE VFR IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH EAST OR MVFR/IFR IN RAIN
AND WIND IF LOW IS FAR ENOUGH W. BEST CHC FOR VFR IS WRN AIRPORTS.
BEST CHC FOR DEGRADED CONDS IS ERN AIRPORTS. CONFIDENCE VERY LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BY MID DAY TODAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
FURTHER SOUTHEAST. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 5 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE ATLANTIC, AND
MAY BE SLOWER TO DECREASE SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW HAVE ISSUED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED AND GALES ARE PSBL
IF NOT PROBABLE INTO ERLY MON AS STRONG LOW PRES IMPACTS THE
WATERS.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE....BACK END SCA CONDS AS SEAS AND WIND SUBSIDE
SLOWLY.

WED...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOWS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR 11/22.

ATLANTIC CITY 12 SET IN 1879
PHILADELPHIA 14 SET IN 1880
WILMINGTON 17 SET IN 1964

ALLENTOWN 17 SET IN 1969 AND 1964 *HAS ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AS
ALLENTOWN HAS HAD A LOW SO FAR OF 16*

TRENTON 15 SET IN 1880
GEORGETOWN 16 SET IN 1987
READING 16 SET IN 1969
MOUNT POCONO 5 SET IN 1969

HERE ARE THE FORECASTED LOWS FOR THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC CITY 18
PHILADELPHIA 23
WILMINGTON 20
ALLENTOWN 16
TRENTON 21
GEORGETOWN 18
READING 16

ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN INCREASING, WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE SENDING OUT ANY RECORD EVENT REPORTS.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 220229
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA AS ITS COLD FRONT
CROSSES OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO OUR SOUTH LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING AS WE HAVE LOST DAYTIME
HEATING THAT PROMOTES MIXING. THE LIGHT OR NEAR CALM WINDS PLUS A
DRY ATMOS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT FROM THE WEST BUT THIS WILL
ONLY ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND FURTHER DE- COUPLING OF
THE SURFACE LAYER. THE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAY APPROACH RECORDS
FOR THE DATE FOR SOME LOCATIONS, SEE CLIMATE SECTION. HWVR URBAN AND
COASTAL AREAS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD.

9:30 PM UPDATE: SOME LOCATION HAVE BEEN VERY QUICK TO COOL
TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. URBAN CENTERS SUCH AS
PHL HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO COOL AND SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RAISED SLIGHTLY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN THE RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, AS STATED ABOVE WAA IN THE
MID-LEVELS WILL BE COMING INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OFF ACROSS REGIONS THAT HAVE
COOLED FASTER. STILL A CLEAR CRISP NIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN IS ONGOING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO SHIFT EWD OR SEWD AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OFF
OF CAPE HAT BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SWLY FLOW AND
SOMEWHAT OF A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS. WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING
ALOFT...AFTN MAXS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL. INCREASING HI CLOUDS WILL TEND TO HOLD TEMPS
BACK ESPECIALLY N/W OF PHL. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CHANGING PATTERN AND NOTICEABLY MILDER AIRMASS ARE IN STORE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, BUT A RETURN TO COOLER AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER A FAIRLY QUIET DAYTIME SATURDAY, THE DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN BACK IN
ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALOFT THROUGH ABOUT
850MB, SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE 0Z
TO 12Z SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THESE SIGNALS LOOK TO INITIATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES, ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST, FROM
LATE-DAY SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR OUR REGION, THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT ALOFT TO PERHAPS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
REACHING OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES, AND IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, IT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS THE WARMING ALOFT OCCURS. THIS STILL
LOOKS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT, WITH PERHAPS THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN AS THE
COLD SURFACE AIR REMAINS TRAPPED. NONETHELESS, WITH OUR CONFIDENCE
IN THIS OCCURRENCE BELOW AVERAGE, WE HAVE KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR
LESS. WE WILL, HOWEVER, KEEP A MENTION OF THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT.

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BE TAKING SHAPE IN EARNEST ACROSS OUR REGION BEHIND THE OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN ARE KEPT THROUGH THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH THE BEST LIFT OCCURRING AND
THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, SOME
HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR LATE-DAY SUNDAY FOR OUR SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES. INTO MONDAY, WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF OUR
AREA, WE TRIM BACK POPS FOR ONLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM AS WAA AND A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER, ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND DECENT MIXING, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO EASILY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME AREAS HAVING A CHANCE AT REACHING
AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS WOULD BE NEARING RECORD HIGH TERRITORY.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO EASTERN CANADA, WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION. THIS COLD FRONT MAY TAKE
ITS TIME MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING OFF TO OUR WEST. IN FACT, THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS LINGERING
BOUNDARY OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST AS SOME ENERGY
EMERGES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WHILE ANY PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, IT WILL
DEPEND ON THE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AS IT ADVANCES NORTHEAST ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. FOR NOW, WE
HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN/SHWRS INTO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION TO ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP CHANCES,
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING SHAPE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.

WHILE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, THERE ARE MORE SIMILARITIES WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS WITH REGARDS TO A MUCH STRONGER
MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD OUR
REGION THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, WE WENT PRIMARILY WITH A
WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS AND POPS THURSDAY. AS
THIS TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY MORNING, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST LOOKS TO TAKE ITS PLACE AND BUILD EAST
TOWARD OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH PERHAPS SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY
THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE MORNING
AROUND 10 KNOTS. A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT BUT THE EXPECTED COVERAGE DOES NOT MERIT MENTION IN THE
TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, INCREASING
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE SUB-VFR DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE. LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING WE ALLOWED THE SCA TO EXPIRE AT
6PM. WINDS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BACK AROUND TO THE WEST
AND THEN SW BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVEL. SEAS WILL BE ALSO
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY BE CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS, WITH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO DELAWARE BAY, WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS PLUS AT TIMES ALONG WITH ELEVATED SEAS.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO
ELEVATED SEAS.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOWS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR
11/22.

ATLANTIC CITY 12 BACK IN 1879
PHILADELPHIA 14 BACK IN 1880
WILMINGTON 17 BACK IN 1964
ALLENTOWN 17 BACK IN 1969 AND 1964
TRENTON 15 BACK IN 1880
GEORGETOWN 16 BACK IN 1987
READING 16 BACK IN 1969
MOUNT POCONO 5 BACK IN 1969

HERE ARE THE FORECASTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC CITY 18
PHILADELPHIA 23
WILMINGTON 20
ALLENTOWN 16
TRENTON 21
GEORGETOWN 18
READING 16
MOUNT POCONO 8

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...AMC/GAINES/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/GAINES/KLINE
CLIMATE... DRAG/GAINES







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220229
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA AS ITS COLD FRONT
CROSSES OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO OUR SOUTH LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING AS WE HAVE LOST DAYTIME
HEATING THAT PROMOTES MIXING. THE LIGHT OR NEAR CALM WINDS PLUS A
DRY ATMOS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT FROM THE WEST BUT THIS WILL
ONLY ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND FURTHER DE- COUPLING OF
THE SURFACE LAYER. THE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAY APPROACH RECORDS
FOR THE DATE FOR SOME LOCATIONS, SEE CLIMATE SECTION. HWVR URBAN AND
COASTAL AREAS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD.

9:30 PM UPDATE: SOME LOCATION HAVE BEEN VERY QUICK TO COOL
TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. URBAN CENTERS SUCH AS
PHL HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO COOL AND SHORT TERM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RAISED SLIGHTLY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN THE RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, AS STATED ABOVE WAA IN THE
MID-LEVELS WILL BE COMING INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OFF ACROSS REGIONS THAT HAVE
COOLED FASTER. STILL A CLEAR CRISP NIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN IS ONGOING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO SHIFT EWD OR SEWD AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OFF
OF CAPE HAT BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SWLY FLOW AND
SOMEWHAT OF A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS. WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING
ALOFT...AFTN MAXS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL. INCREASING HI CLOUDS WILL TEND TO HOLD TEMPS
BACK ESPECIALLY N/W OF PHL. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CHANGING PATTERN AND NOTICEABLY MILDER AIRMASS ARE IN STORE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, BUT A RETURN TO COOLER AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER A FAIRLY QUIET DAYTIME SATURDAY, THE DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN BACK IN
ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALOFT THROUGH ABOUT
850MB, SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE 0Z
TO 12Z SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THESE SIGNALS LOOK TO INITIATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES, ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST, FROM
LATE-DAY SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR OUR REGION, THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT ALOFT TO PERHAPS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
REACHING OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES, AND IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, IT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS THE WARMING ALOFT OCCURS. THIS STILL
LOOKS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT, WITH PERHAPS THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN AS THE
COLD SURFACE AIR REMAINS TRAPPED. NONETHELESS, WITH OUR CONFIDENCE
IN THIS OCCURRENCE BELOW AVERAGE, WE HAVE KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR
LESS. WE WILL, HOWEVER, KEEP A MENTION OF THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT.

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BE TAKING SHAPE IN EARNEST ACROSS OUR REGION BEHIND THE OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN ARE KEPT THROUGH THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH THE BEST LIFT OCCURRING AND
THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, SOME
HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR LATE-DAY SUNDAY FOR OUR SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES. INTO MONDAY, WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF OUR
AREA, WE TRIM BACK POPS FOR ONLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM AS WAA AND A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER, ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND DECENT MIXING, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO EASILY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME AREAS HAVING A CHANCE AT REACHING
AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS WOULD BE NEARING RECORD HIGH TERRITORY.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO EASTERN CANADA, WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION. THIS COLD FRONT MAY TAKE
ITS TIME MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING OFF TO OUR WEST. IN FACT, THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS LINGERING
BOUNDARY OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST AS SOME ENERGY
EMERGES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WHILE ANY PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, IT WILL
DEPEND ON THE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AS IT ADVANCES NORTHEAST ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. FOR NOW, WE
HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN/SHWRS INTO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION TO ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP CHANCES,
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING SHAPE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.

WHILE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, THERE ARE MORE SIMILARITIES WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS WITH REGARDS TO A MUCH STRONGER
MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD OUR
REGION THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, WE WENT PRIMARILY WITH A
WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS AND POPS THURSDAY. AS
THIS TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY MORNING, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST LOOKS TO TAKE ITS PLACE AND BUILD EAST
TOWARD OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH PERHAPS SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY
THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS
SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE MORNING
AROUND 10 KNOTS. A FEW HIGHER WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT BUT THE EXPECTED COVERAGE DOES NOT MERIT MENTION IN THE
TAFS ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, INCREASING
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE SUB-VFR DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE. LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING WE ALLOWED THE SCA TO EXPIRE AT
6PM. WINDS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BACK AROUND TO THE WEST
AND THEN SW BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVEL. SEAS WILL BE ALSO
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY BE CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS, WITH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO DELAWARE BAY, WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS PLUS AT TIMES ALONG WITH ELEVATED SEAS.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO
ELEVATED SEAS.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOWS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR
11/22.

ATLANTIC CITY 12 BACK IN 1879
PHILADELPHIA 14 BACK IN 1880
WILMINGTON 17 BACK IN 1964
ALLENTOWN 17 BACK IN 1969 AND 1964
TRENTON 15 BACK IN 1880
GEORGETOWN 16 BACK IN 1987
READING 16 BACK IN 1969
MOUNT POCONO 5 BACK IN 1969

HERE ARE THE FORECASTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC CITY 18
PHILADELPHIA 23
WILMINGTON 20
ALLENTOWN 16
TRENTON 21
GEORGETOWN 18
READING 16
MOUNT POCONO 8

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...AMC/GAINES/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/GAINES/KLINE
CLIMATE... DRAG/GAINES








000
FXUS61 KPHI 212322
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
622 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA AS ITS COLD FRONT
CROSSES OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO OUR SOUTH LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING AS WE HAVE LOST DAYTIME
HEATING THAT PROMOTES MIXING. THE LIGHT OR NEAR CALM WINDS PLUS A
DRY ATMOS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT FROM THE WEST BUT THIS WILL
ONLY ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND FURTHER DE- COUPLING OF
THE SURFACE LAYER. DECIDED TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR
TWO. THE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAY APPROACH RECORDS FOR THE DATE FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. HWVR URBAN AND COASTAL AREAS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COLD. WITH THE 6:30 PM UPDATE IT APPEARS THE LOCATIONS WHERE
THE WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN QUICKER ARE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER AND THOSE STILL SOMEWHAT WINDY ARE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS BUT DID MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE OVERALL LOW TEMPERATURES
REFERENCED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO SHIFT EWD OR SEWD AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OFF
OF CAPE HAT BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SWLY FLOW AND
SMWHT OF A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS. WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING
ALOFT...AFTN MAXS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL. INCREASING HI CLOUDS WILL TEND TO HOLD TEMPS
BACK ESPECIALLY N/W OF PHL. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CHANGING PATTERN AND NOTICEABLY MILDER AIRMASS ARE IN STORE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, BUT A RETURN TO COOLER AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER A FAIRLY QUIET DAYTIME SATURDAY, THE DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN BACK IN
ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALOFT THROUGH ABOUT
850MB, SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE 0Z
TO 12Z SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THESE SIGNALS LOOK TO INITIATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES, ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST, FROM
LATE-DAY SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR OUR REGION, THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT ALOFT TO PERHAPS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
REACHING OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES, AND IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, IT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS THE WARMING ALOFT OCCURS. THIS STILL
LOOKS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT, WITH PERHAPS THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN AS THE
COLD SURFACE AIR REMAINS TRAPPED. NONETHELESS, WITH OUR CONFIDENCE
IN THIS OCCURRENCE BELOW AVERAGE, WE HAVE KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR
LESS. WE WILL, HOWEVER, KEEP A MENTION OF THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT.

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BE TAKING SHAPE IN EARNEST ACROSS OUR REGION BEHIND THE OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN ARE KEPT THROUGH THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH THE BEST LIFT OCCURRING AND
THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, SOME
HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR LATE-DAY SUNDAY FOR OUR SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES. INTO MONDAY, WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF OUR
AREA, WE TRIM BACK POPS FOR ONLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM AS WAA AND A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER, ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND DECENT MIXING, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO EASILY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME AREAS HAVING A CHANCE AT REACHING
AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS WOULD BE NEARING RECORD HIGH TERRITORY.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO EASTERN CANADA, WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION. THIS COLD FRONT MAY TAKE
ITS TIME MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING OFF TO OUR WEST. IN FACT, THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS LINGERING
BOUNDARY OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST AS SOME ENERGY
EMERGES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WHILE ANY PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, IT WILL
DEPEND ON THE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AS IT ADVANCES NORTHEAST ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. FOR NOW, WE
HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN/SHWRS INTO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION TO ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP CHANCES,
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING SHAPE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.

WHILE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, THERE ARE MORE SIMILARITIES WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS WITH REGARDS TO A MUCH STRONGER
MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD OUR
REGION THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, WE WENT PRIMARILY WITH A
WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS AND POPS THURSDAY. AS
THIS TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY MORNING, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST LOOKS TO TAKE ITS PLACE AND BUILD EAST
TOWARD OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH PERHAPS SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY
THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...SWLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE MORNING BUT SHOULD GENLY REMAIN BELOW 10
KT DURG THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, INCREASING
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE SUB-VFR DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE. LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING WE ALLOWED THE SCA TO EXPIRE AT
6PM. WINDS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BACK AROUND TO THE WEST
AND THEN SW BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVEL. SEAS WILL BE ALSO
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY BE CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS, WITH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO DELAWARE BAY, WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS PLUS AT TIMES ALONG WITH ELEVATED SEAS.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO
ELEVATED SEAS.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOWS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR
11/22.

ATLANTIC CITY 12 BACK IN 1879
PHILADELPHIA 14 BACK IN 1880
WILMINGTON 17 BACK IN 1964
ALLENTOWN 17 BACK IN 1969 AND 1964
TRENTON 15 BACK IN 1880
GEORGETOWN 16 BACK IN 1987
READING 16 BACK IN 1969
MOUNT POCONO 5 BACK IN 1969

HERE ARE THE FORECASTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC CITY 18
PHILADELPHIA 23
WILMINGTON 20
ALLENTOWN 16
TRENTON 21
GEORGETOWN 18
READING 16
MOUNT POCONO 13

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...AMC/GAINES/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
CLIMATE...DRAG/GAINES







000
FXUS61 KPHI 212322
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
622 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA AS ITS COLD FRONT
CROSSES OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO OUR SOUTH LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHTER THIS EVENING AS WE HAVE LOST DAYTIME
HEATING THAT PROMOTES MIXING. THE LIGHT OR NEAR CALM WINDS PLUS A
DRY ATMOS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT FROM THE WEST BUT THIS WILL
ONLY ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND FURTHER DE- COUPLING OF
THE SURFACE LAYER. DECIDED TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR
TWO. THE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAY APPROACH RECORDS FOR THE DATE FOR
SOME LOCATIONS. HWVR URBAN AND COASTAL AREAS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COLD. WITH THE 6:30 PM UPDATE IT APPEARS THE LOCATIONS WHERE
THE WINDS HAVE DIED DOWN QUICKER ARE RUNNING A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER AND THOSE STILL SOMEWHAT WINDY ARE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER.
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES SOME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS BUT DID MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE OVERALL LOW TEMPERATURES
REFERENCED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO SHIFT EWD OR SEWD AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OFF
OF CAPE HAT BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SWLY FLOW AND
SMWHT OF A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS. WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING
ALOFT...AFTN MAXS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL. INCREASING HI CLOUDS WILL TEND TO HOLD TEMPS
BACK ESPECIALLY N/W OF PHL. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CHANGING PATTERN AND NOTICEABLY MILDER AIRMASS ARE IN STORE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, BUT A RETURN TO COOLER AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER A FAIRLY QUIET DAYTIME SATURDAY, THE DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN BACK IN
ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALOFT THROUGH ABOUT
850MB, SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE 0Z
TO 12Z SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THESE SIGNALS LOOK TO INITIATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES, ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST, FROM
LATE-DAY SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR OUR REGION, THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT ALOFT TO PERHAPS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
REACHING OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES, AND IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, IT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS THE WARMING ALOFT OCCURS. THIS STILL
LOOKS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT, WITH PERHAPS THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN AS THE
COLD SURFACE AIR REMAINS TRAPPED. NONETHELESS, WITH OUR CONFIDENCE
IN THIS OCCURRENCE BELOW AVERAGE, WE HAVE KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR
LESS. WE WILL, HOWEVER, KEEP A MENTION OF THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT.

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BE TAKING SHAPE IN EARNEST ACROSS OUR REGION BEHIND THE OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN ARE KEPT THROUGH THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH THE BEST LIFT OCCURRING AND
THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, SOME
HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR LATE-DAY SUNDAY FOR OUR SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES. INTO MONDAY, WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF OUR
AREA, WE TRIM BACK POPS FOR ONLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM AS WAA AND A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER, ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND DECENT MIXING, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO EASILY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME AREAS HAVING A CHANCE AT REACHING
AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS WOULD BE NEARING RECORD HIGH TERRITORY.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO EASTERN CANADA, WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION. THIS COLD FRONT MAY TAKE
ITS TIME MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING OFF TO OUR WEST. IN FACT, THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS LINGERING
BOUNDARY OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST AS SOME ENERGY
EMERGES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WHILE ANY PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, IT WILL
DEPEND ON THE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AS IT ADVANCES NORTHEAST ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. FOR NOW, WE
HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN/SHWRS INTO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION TO ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP CHANCES,
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING SHAPE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.

WHILE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, THERE ARE MORE SIMILARITIES WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS WITH REGARDS TO A MUCH STRONGER
MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD OUR
REGION THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, WE WENT PRIMARILY WITH A
WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS AND POPS THURSDAY. AS
THIS TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY MORNING, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST LOOKS TO TAKE ITS PLACE AND BUILD EAST
TOWARD OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH PERHAPS SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BY
THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. LIGHT WESTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...SWLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE MORNING BUT SHOULD GENLY REMAIN BELOW 10
KT DURG THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, INCREASING
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE SUB-VFR DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE. LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING WE ALLOWED THE SCA TO EXPIRE AT
6PM. WINDS OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BACK AROUND TO THE WEST
AND THEN SW BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVEL. SEAS WILL BE ALSO
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY BE CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS, WITH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO DELAWARE BAY, WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS PLUS AT TIMES ALONG WITH ELEVATED SEAS.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO
ELEVATED SEAS.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOWS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR
11/22.

ATLANTIC CITY 12 BACK IN 1879
PHILADELPHIA 14 BACK IN 1880
WILMINGTON 17 BACK IN 1964
ALLENTOWN 17 BACK IN 1969 AND 1964
TRENTON 15 BACK IN 1880
GEORGETOWN 16 BACK IN 1987
READING 16 BACK IN 1969
MOUNT POCONO 5 BACK IN 1969

HERE ARE THE FORECASTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC CITY 18
PHILADELPHIA 23
WILMINGTON 20
ALLENTOWN 16
TRENTON 21
GEORGETOWN 18
READING 16
MOUNT POCONO 13

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...AMC/GAINES
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...AMC/GAINES/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
CLIMATE...DRAG/GAINES








000
FXUS61 KPHI 212122
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
422 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA AS ITS COLD FRONT
CROSSES OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO OUR SOUTH LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF MID AFTERNOON SFC HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID OH VLY
AND WAS CONTG TO MOVE EWD INTO THE MID-ATL REGION. GUSTY NW WINDS
AROUND THE HIGH CONT OVER THE FCST AREA BUT SHOULD GRADLY DIMINISH
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES. AFTN TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ARE ABOUT 15 DEGS F COOLER THAN NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS IS IN SPITE OF SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS...
EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW CLOUD STREAMERS OVER NE PA AND NW NJ CARRYING
MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER GRTLKS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER OUR AREA RESULTING IN
FURTHER DIMINISHING WINDS. THE LIGHT OR NEAR CALM WINDS PLUS A DRY
ATMOS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. WARMER
AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT FROM THE WEST BUT THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND FURTHER DE-COUPLING OF THE SURFACE
LAYER. DECIDED TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO. THE
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAY APPROACH RECORDS FOR THE DATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. HWVR URBAN AND COASTAL AREAS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO SHIFT EWD OR SEWD AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OFF
OF CAPE HAT BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SWLY FLOW AND
SMWHT OF A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS. WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING
ALOFT...AFTN MAXS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL. INCREASING HI CLOUDS WILL TEND TO HOLD TEMPS
BACK ESPECIALLY N/W OF PHL. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CHANGING PATTERN AND NOTICEABLY MILDER AIRMASS ARE IN STORE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, BUT A RETURN TO COOLER AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER A FAIRLY QUIET DAYTIME SATURDAY, THE DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN BACK IN
ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALOFT THROUGH ABOUT
850MB, SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE 0Z
TO 12Z SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THESE SIGNALS LOOK TO INITIATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES, ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST, FROM
LATE-DAY SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR OUR REGION, THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT ALOFT TO PERHAPS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
REACHING OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES, AND IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, IT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS THE WARMING ALOFT OCCURS. THIS STILL
LOOKS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT, WITH PERHAPS THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN AS THE
COLD SURFACE AIR REMAINS TRAPPED. NONETHELESS, WITH OUR CONFIDENCE
IN THIS OCCURRENCE BELOW AVERAGE, WE HAVE KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR
LESS. WE WILL, HOWEVER, KEEP A MENTION OF THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT.

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BE TAKING SHAPE IN EARNEST ACROSS OUR REGION BEHIND THE OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN ARE KEPT THROUGH THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH THE BEST LIFT OCCURRING AND
THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, SOME
HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR LATE-DAY SUNDAY FOR OUR SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES. INTO MONDAY, WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF OUR
AREA, WE TRIM BACK POPS FOR ONLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM AS WAA AND A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER, ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND DECENT MIXING, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO EASILY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME AREAS HAVING A CHANCE AT REACHING
AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS WOULD BE NEARING RECORD HIGH TERRITORY.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO EASTERN CANADA, WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION. THIS COLD FRONT MAY TAKE
ITS TIME MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING OFF TO OUR WEST. IN FACT, THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS LINGERING
BOUNDARY OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST AS SOME ENERGY
EMERGES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WHILE ANY PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, IT WILL
DEPEND ON THE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AS IT ADVANCES NORTHEAST ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. FOR NOW, WE
HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN/SHWRS INTO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION TO ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP CHANCES,
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING SHAPE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.

WHILE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, THERE ARE MORE SIMILARITIES WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS WITH REGARDS TO A MUCH STRONGER
MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD OUR
REGION THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, WE WENT PRIMARILY WITH A
WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS AND POPS THURSDAY. AS
THIS TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY MORNING, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST LOOKS TO TAKE ITS PLACE AND BUILD EAST
TOWARD OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR ALL TAF SITES. THE CURRENT GUSTY NW WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
AS OF MID AFTN AND WILL DECREASE MORE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT
WESTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...SWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE
MORNING BUT SHOULD GENLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KT DURG THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, INCREASING
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE SUB-VFR DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE. LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ARE DECREASING WITH BUOY 44009 AROUND 4 FT AT 20Z AND 44065
BELOW 3 FT. WINDS ARE ALSO DECREASING BUT SOME GUST BETWEEN 25 AND
30 KT ARE STILL BEING REPORTED. THE CURRENT SCA FOR ALL FORECAST
WATERS IS SET TO EXPIRE AT AT 600 PM WHICH LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT.
WINDS OVER THE DELAWARE BAY MIGHT DECREASE A LITTLE FASTER. WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN SW BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVEL.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY BE CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS, WITH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO DELAWARE BAY, WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS PLUS AT TIMES ALONG WITH ELEVATED SEAS.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO
ELEVATED SEAS.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOWS FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FOR
11/22.

ATLANTIC CITY 12 BACK IN 1879
PHILADELPHIA 14 BACK IN 1880
WILMINGTON 17 BACK IN 1964
ALLENTOWN 17 BACK IN 1969 AND 1964
TRENTON 15 BACK IN 1880
GEORGETOWN 16 BACK IN 1987
READING 16 BACK IN 1969
MOUNT POCONO 5 BACK IN 1969

HERE ARE THE FORECASTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC CITY 18
PHILADELPHIA 23
WILMINGTON 20
ALLENTOWN 16
TRENTON 21
GEORGETOWN 18
READING 16
MOUNT POCONO 13


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...AMC/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
CLIMATE... DRAG/GAINES







000
FXUS61 KPHI 212058
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA AS ITS COLD FRONT
CROSSES OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO OUR SOUTH LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF MID AFTERNOON SFC HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID OH VLY
AND WAS CONTG TO MOVE EWD INTO THE MID-ATL REGION. GUSTY NW WINDS
AROUND THE HIGH CONT OVER THE FCST AREA BUT SHOULD GRADLY DIMINISH
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES. AFTN TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ARE ABOUT 15 DEGS F COOLER THAN NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS IS IN SPITE OF SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS...
EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW CLOUD STREAMERS OVER NE PA AND NW NJ CARRYING
MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER GRTLKS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER OUR AREA RESULTING IN
FURTHER DIMINISHING WINDS. THE LIGHT OR NEAR CALM WINDS PLUS A DRY
ATMOS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. WARMER
AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT FROM THE WEST BUT THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND FURTHER DE-COUPLING OF THE SURFACE
LAYER. DECIDED TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO. THE
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAY APPROACH RECORDS FOR THE DATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. HWVR URBAN AND COASTAL AREAS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO SHIFT EWD OR SEWD AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OFF
OF CAPE HAT BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SWLY FLOW AND
SMWHT OF A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS. WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING
ALOFT...AFTN MAXS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL. INCREASING HI CLOUDS WILL TEND TO HOLD TEMPS
BACK ESPECIALLY N/W OF PHL. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CHANGING PATTERN AND NOTICEABLY MILDER AIRMASS ARE IN STORE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, BUT A RETURN TO COOLER AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER A FAIRLY QUIET DAYTIME SATURDAY, THE DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN BACK IN
ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALOFT THROUGH ABOUT
850MB, SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE 0Z
TO 12Z SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THESE SIGNALS LOOK TO INITIATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES, ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST, FROM
LATE-DAY SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR OUR REGION, THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT ALOFT TO PERHAPS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
REACHING OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES, AND IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, IT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS THE WARMING ALOFT OCCURS. THIS STILL
LOOKS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT, WITH PERHAPS THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN AS THE
COLD SURFACE AIR REMAINS TRAPPED. NONETHELESS, WITH OUR CONFIDENCE
IN THIS OCCURRENCE BELOW AVERAGE, WE HAVE KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR
LESS. WE WILL, HOWEVER, KEEP A MENTION OF THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT.

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BE TAKING SHAPE IN EARNEST ACROSS OUR REGION BEHIND THE OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN ARE KEPT THROUGH THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH THE BEST LIFT OCCURRING AND
THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, SOME
HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR LATE-DAY SUNDAY FOR OUR SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES. INTO MONDAY, WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF OUR
AREA, WE TRIM BACK POPS FOR ONLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM AS WAA AND A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER, ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND DECENT MIXING, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO EASILY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME AREAS HAVING A CHANCE AT REACHING
AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS WOULD BE NEARING RECORD HIGH TERRITORY.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO EASTERN CANADA, WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION. THIS COLD FRONT MAY TAKE
ITS TIME MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING OFF TO OUR WEST. IN FACT, THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS LINGERING
BOUNDARY OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST AS SOME ENERGY
EMERGES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WHILE ANY PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, IT WILL
DEPEND ON THE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AS IT ADVANCES NORTHEAST ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. FOR NOW, WE
HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN/SHWRS INTO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION TO ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP CHANCES,
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING SHAPE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.

WHILE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, THERE ARE MORE SIMILARITIES WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS WITH REGARDS TO A MUCH STRONGER
MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD OUR
REGION THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, WE WENT PRIMARILY WITH A
WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS AND POPS THURSDAY. AS
THIS TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY MORNING, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST LOOKS TO TAKE ITS PLACE AND BUILD EAST
TOWARD OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR ALL TAF SITES. THE CURRENT GUSTY NW WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
AS OF MID AFTN AND WILL DECREASE MORE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT
WESTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...SWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE
MORNING BUT SHOULD GENLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KT DURG THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, INCREASING
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE SUB-VFR DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE. LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ARE DECREASING WITH BUOY 44009 AROUND 4 FT AT 20Z AND 44065
BELOW 3 FT. WINDS ARE ALSO DECREASING BUT SOME GUST BETWEEN 25 AND
30 KT ARE STILL BEING REPORTED. THE CURRENT SCA FOR ALL FORECAST
WATERS IS SET TO EXPIRE AT AT 600 PM WHICH LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT.
WINDS OVER THE DELAWARE BAY MIGHT DECREASE A LITTLE FASTER. WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN SW BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVEL.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY BE CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS, WITH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO DELAWARE BAY, WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS PLUS AT TIMES ALONG WITH ELEVATED SEAS.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO
ELEVATED SEAS.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...AMC/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 212058
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO EASTERN CANADA AS ITS COLD FRONT
CROSSES OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO OUR SOUTH LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD BUILD INTO THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF MID AFTERNOON SFC HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID OH VLY
AND WAS CONTG TO MOVE EWD INTO THE MID-ATL REGION. GUSTY NW WINDS
AROUND THE HIGH CONT OVER THE FCST AREA BUT SHOULD GRADLY DIMINISH
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES. AFTN TEMPS
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ARE ABOUT 15 DEGS F COOLER THAN NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS IS IN SPITE OF SUNNY SKIES MOST AREAS...
EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW CLOUD STREAMERS OVER NE PA AND NW NJ CARRYING
MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER GRTLKS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OVER OUR AREA RESULTING IN
FURTHER DIMINISHING WINDS. THE LIGHT OR NEAR CALM WINDS PLUS A DRY
ATMOS WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. WARMER
AIR WILL BE MOVING IN ALOFT FROM THE WEST BUT THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND FURTHER DE-COUPLING OF THE SURFACE
LAYER. DECIDED TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE BY A DEGREE OR TWO. THE
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS MAY APPROACH RECORDS FOR THE DATE FOR SOME
LOCATIONS. HWVR URBAN AND COASTAL AREAS SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL CONT TO SHIFT EWD OR SEWD AND SHOULD BE CENTERED OFF
OF CAPE HAT BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SWLY FLOW AND
SMWHT OF A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS. WITH WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING
ALOFT...AFTN MAXS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY BUT
STILL BELOW NORMAL. INCREASING HI CLOUDS WILL TEND TO HOLD TEMPS
BACK ESPECIALLY N/W OF PHL. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED BEFORE 00Z SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A CHANGING PATTERN AND NOTICEABLY MILDER AIRMASS ARE IN STORE AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, BUT A RETURN TO COOLER AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER A FAIRLY QUIET DAYTIME SATURDAY, THE DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW
AROUND HIGH PRESSURE AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN BACK IN
ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALOFT THROUGH ABOUT
850MB, SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE 0Z
TO 12Z SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THESE SIGNALS LOOK TO INITIATE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP OFF OF THE GREAT LAKES, ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST, FROM
LATE-DAY SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. FOR OUR REGION, THERE
LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT ALOFT TO PERHAPS SUPPORT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
REACHING OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES, AND IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT, IT MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS SURFACE
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING AS THE WARMING ALOFT OCCURS. THIS STILL
LOOKS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT, WITH PERHAPS THE SHELTERED
VALLEYS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN AS THE
COLD SURFACE AIR REMAINS TRAPPED. NONETHELESS, WITH OUR CONFIDENCE
IN THIS OCCURRENCE BELOW AVERAGE, WE HAVE KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR
LESS. WE WILL, HOWEVER, KEEP A MENTION OF THIS POSSIBILITY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT.

GOING INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
BE TAKING SHAPE IN EARNEST ACROSS OUR REGION BEHIND THE OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHEST POPS FOR RAIN ARE KEPT THROUGH THE SUNDAY
NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH THE BEST LIFT OCCURRING AND
THE WARM FRONT PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER, SOME
HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR LATE-DAY SUNDAY FOR OUR SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN ZONES. INTO MONDAY, WITH THE WARM FRONT NORTH OF OUR
AREA, WE TRIM BACK POPS FOR ONLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS. MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM AS WAA AND A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER, ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND DECENT MIXING, MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO EASILY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME AREAS HAVING A CHANCE AT REACHING
AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS WOULD BE NEARING RECORD HIGH TERRITORY.

LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO EASTERN CANADA, WITH ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION. THIS COLD FRONT MAY TAKE
ITS TIME MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINING OFF TO OUR WEST. IN FACT, THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THIS LINGERING
BOUNDARY OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST AS SOME ENERGY
EMERGES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WHILE ANY PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, IT WILL
DEPEND ON THE PROXIMITY OF THIS LOW PRESSURE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AS IT ADVANCES NORTHEAST ALONG THE LINGERING BOUNDARY. FOR NOW, WE
HAVE KEPT SOME CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN/SHWRS INTO WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES. IN ADDITION TO ANY POSSIBLE PRECIP CHANCES,
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE TAKING SHAPE THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A
RETURN TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY.

WHILE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD, THERE ARE MORE SIMILARITIES WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS WITH REGARDS TO A MUCH STRONGER
MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD OUR
REGION THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, WE WENT PRIMARILY WITH A
WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND WITH REGARDS TO TEMPS AND POPS THURSDAY. AS
THIS TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY MORNING, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE MIDWEST LOOKS TO TAKE ITS PLACE AND BUILD EAST
TOWARD OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR ALL TAF SITES. THE CURRENT GUSTY NW WINDS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
AS OF MID AFTN AND WILL DECREASE MORE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT
WESTERLY OR VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH PRES
MOVES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...SWLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE
MORNING BUT SHOULD GENLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KT DURG THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, INCREASING
CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CEILING AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF RAIN.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE SUB-VFR DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE. LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ARE DECREASING WITH BUOY 44009 AROUND 4 FT AT 20Z AND 44065
BELOW 3 FT. WINDS ARE ALSO DECREASING BUT SOME GUST BETWEEN 25 AND
30 KT ARE STILL BEING REPORTED. THE CURRENT SCA FOR ALL FORECAST
WATERS IS SET TO EXPIRE AT AT 600 PM WHICH LOOKS GOOD AT THIS POINT.
WINDS OVER THE DELAWARE BAY MIGHT DECREASE A LITTLE FASTER. WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BACK AROUND TO THE WEST AND THEN SW BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVEL.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY BE CLOSE TO SCA CRITERIA FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS, WITH SOME WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS OR LESS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO DELAWARE BAY, WITH WIND
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS PLUS AT TIMES ALONG WITH ELEVATED SEAS.

TUESDAY...SOME LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO
ELEVATED SEAS.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...AMC/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE








000
FXUS61 KPHI 211511
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1011 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO
OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WHILE THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA YESTERDAY
WAS LOCATED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR THIS
MORNING. THE END RESULT WILL BE DAY 3 THIS WEEK OF WINTER- LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

THE LOW-LVL FLOW OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO HAS VEERED NOTICEABLY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SO THAT THE TRAJ NOW EXTENDS SEWD INTO NRN
PA. THIS IS BRINGING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW FLURRIES TO
THE SRN POCONOS AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEEP MIXED
LAYER AROUND 4-5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND
-14C TODAY, WHICH WOULD BE 1 TO 2C HIGHER THAN IT WAS THIS PAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, WAS A REASONABLE PROXY FOR DETERMINING FULL
HEATING POTENTIAL. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S (EXCEPT
MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS).

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS MORNING WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS BEFORE
BEFORE THE PRES GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WAA WILL
OCCUR OVERHEAD TONIGHT AS THE 925-850 MB  RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. DO
NOT EXPECT THE WARM AIR ALOFT TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON SURFACE
TEMPS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES UNDER A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP. MIN TEMP FORECAST WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE COLDER MAV
GUIDANCE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
IN THE MORE RURAL AREAS AND LOW TO MID 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL
LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERNS CHANGE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
LONGER TERM PARTS OF THE FCST. THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
REMAINS...BUT THE COLDEST AIR MOVES AWAY SAT/EARLY SUN AS SOME
PROGRESSIVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE ERN U.S. MORE COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD UP ACROSS CNTRL CANADA TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES...COLD SAT WITH READINGS STILL SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING EAST OF THE REGION. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE IN STORE FOR MONDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
MOST AREAS WITH SOME 70S ALSO POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. NORMAL TEMPS : PHL/ACY...MAX 50-52..MIN 35-37. RDG/ABE...MAX
48-50..MIN 30-32 GED...MAX 52-54..MIN 33-35.

PRECIPITATION...DRY SAT THEN A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH FOR SAT NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY SUN...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR RAIN SUN NIGHT...DECREASING TO CHC MON AND MON NIGHT. TUE/WED
DRY ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT SMALL CHC FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS
THE OP MODELS SHOWING A LOW MOVING JUST E OF THE AREA THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. W-NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL GUST 20-25 KT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS DO SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 10 KT TOWARD SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...VFR EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/FOG.
TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING EXPIRED AT 7 AM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS TODAY UNTIL 600 PM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST GALES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART
FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AS STRONGER GUSTS HAVE NOT MIXED DOWN QUITE
AS EFFECTIVELY AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE LATEST DOWNSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS AND HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURGE OF COLDER
AIR ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS. STILL EXPECT PREDOMINATELY SCA-
LEVEL WINDS BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS TO GALES WILL BE
HIGHEST EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL THEREFORE BE CONSERVATIVE AND
KEEP THE GLW UP FOR THE LOWER DE BAY AND ATLANTIC ZONES THRU 7 AM.
AFTER GLW EXPIRES, A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR TODAY.

SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPDATE...AFTER COORDINATION WITH STATES...LOOKS LIKE FUELS ARE
STILL WITH RECENT RAINS AND SUBSEQUENT COLD TEMPS. SO WILL NOT BE
ISSUING ANY RED FLAGS TODAY.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
NORTHWEST AND VERY DRY AIR. FREQUENT WEST-NORTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS START TO WEAKEN
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. FORECAST MINIMUM RHS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S BUT MAY REACH THE 30 PERCENT RED FLAG
CRITERIA IN A FEW SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER, THESE MIN RHS THIS AFTERNOON MAY NOT COINCIDE WITH THE
FREQUENT 20 MPH GUSTS, WHICH WOULD LOWER THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
YESTERDAY`S FUEL MOISTURE OBSERVATIONS OBTAINED FROM THE NFDRS WAS
BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE DAY AREA. WE WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
COORDINATE WITH STATE OFFICIALS BEFORE ANY ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
STATEMENT IS ISSUED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211511
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1011 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO
OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1034 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WHILE THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA YESTERDAY
WAS LOCATED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR THIS
MORNING. THE END RESULT WILL BE DAY 3 THIS WEEK OF WINTER- LIKE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

THE LOW-LVL FLOW OVER LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO HAS VEERED NOTICEABLY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SO THAT THE TRAJ NOW EXTENDS SEWD INTO NRN
PA. THIS IS BRINGING LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SNOW FLURRIES TO
THE SRN POCONOS AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEEP MIXED
LAYER AROUND 4-5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND
-14C TODAY, WHICH WOULD BE 1 TO 2C HIGHER THAN IT WAS THIS PAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, WAS A REASONABLE PROXY FOR DETERMINING FULL
HEATING POTENTIAL. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S (EXCEPT
MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS).

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS MORNING WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS BEFORE
BEFORE THE PRES GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WAA WILL
OCCUR OVERHEAD TONIGHT AS THE 925-850 MB  RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. DO
NOT EXPECT THE WARM AIR ALOFT TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON SURFACE
TEMPS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES UNDER A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP. MIN TEMP FORECAST WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE COLDER MAV
GUIDANCE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
IN THE MORE RURAL AREAS AND LOW TO MID 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL
LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERNS CHANGE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
LONGER TERM PARTS OF THE FCST. THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
REMAINS...BUT THE COLDEST AIR MOVES AWAY SAT/EARLY SUN AS SOME
PROGRESSIVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE ERN U.S. MORE COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD UP ACROSS CNTRL CANADA TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES...COLD SAT WITH READINGS STILL SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING EAST OF THE REGION. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE IN STORE FOR MONDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
MOST AREAS WITH SOME 70S ALSO POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. NORMAL TEMPS : PHL/ACY...MAX 50-52..MIN 35-37. RDG/ABE...MAX
48-50..MIN 30-32 GED...MAX 52-54..MIN 33-35.

PRECIPITATION...DRY SAT THEN A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH FOR SAT NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY SUN...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR RAIN SUN NIGHT...DECREASING TO CHC MON AND MON NIGHT. TUE/WED
DRY ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT SMALL CHC FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS
THE OP MODELS SHOWING A LOW MOVING JUST E OF THE AREA THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. W-NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL GUST 20-25 KT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS DO SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 10 KT TOWARD SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...VFR EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/FOG.
TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING EXPIRED AT 7 AM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE WATERS TODAY UNTIL 600 PM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST GALES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART
FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AS STRONGER GUSTS HAVE NOT MIXED DOWN QUITE
AS EFFECTIVELY AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE LATEST DOWNSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS AND HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURGE OF COLDER
AIR ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS. STILL EXPECT PREDOMINATELY SCA-
LEVEL WINDS BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS TO GALES WILL BE
HIGHEST EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL THEREFORE BE CONSERVATIVE AND
KEEP THE GLW UP FOR THE LOWER DE BAY AND ATLANTIC ZONES THRU 7 AM.
AFTER GLW EXPIRES, A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR TODAY.

SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPDATE...AFTER COORDINATION WITH STATES...LOOKS LIKE FUELS ARE
STILL WITH RECENT RAINS AND SUBSEQUENT COLD TEMPS. SO WILL NOT BE
ISSUING ANY RED FLAGS TODAY.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
NORTHWEST AND VERY DRY AIR. FREQUENT WEST-NORTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS START TO WEAKEN
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. FORECAST MINIMUM RHS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S BUT MAY REACH THE 30 PERCENT RED FLAG
CRITERIA IN A FEW SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER, THESE MIN RHS THIS AFTERNOON MAY NOT COINCIDE WITH THE
FREQUENT 20 MPH GUSTS, WHICH WOULD LOWER THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
YESTERDAY`S FUEL MOISTURE OBSERVATIONS OBTAINED FROM THE NFDRS WAS
BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE DAY AREA. WE WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
COORDINATE WITH STATE OFFICIALS BEFORE ANY ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
STATEMENT IS ISSUED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 211155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
655 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO
OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT WHILE
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP CAPTURES A POLAR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR THIS MORNING.
THE END RESULT WILL BE DAY 3 THIS WEEK OF WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEEP MIXED
LAYER AROUND 4-5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND
-14C TODAY, WHICH WOULD BE 1 TO 2C HIGHER THAN IT WAS THIS PAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, WAS A REASONABLE PROXY FOR DETERMINING FULL
HEATING POTENTIAL. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S (EXCEPT
MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS).

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS MORNING WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS BEFORE IT
GRADUALLY RELAXES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY
THIS MORNING, CAUSING A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND NEAR BGM TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD. IF IT IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF ENOUGH DOWNWIND, THE
POCONOS AND THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF SUSSEX COUNTY MAY SEE A FEW
FLURRIES THIS MORNING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THERE
MAY ALREADY BE FLURRIES OCCURRING BUT THE RADAR WOULD OVERSHOOT ANY
OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WAA WILL
OCCUR OVERHEAD TONIGHT AS THE 925-850 MB  RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. DO
NOT EXPECT THE WARM AIR ALOFT TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON SURFACE
TEMPS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES UNDER A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP. MIN TEMP FORECAST WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE COLDER MAV
GUIDANCE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
IN THE MORE RURAL AREAS AND LOW TO MID 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL
LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERNS CHANGE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
LONGER TERM PARTS OF THE FCST. THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
REMAINS...BUT THE COLDEST AIR MOVES AWAY SAT/EARLY SUN AS SOME
PROGRESSIVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE ERN U.S. MORE COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD UP ACROSS CNTRL CANADA TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES...COLD SAT WITH READINGS STILL SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING EAST OF THE REGION. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE IN STORE FOR MONDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
MOST AREAS WITH SOME 70S ALSO POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. NORMAL TEMPS : PHL/ACY...MAX 50-52..MIN 35-37. RDG/ABE...MAX
48-50..MIN 30-32 GED...MAX 52-54..MIN 33-35.

PRECIPITATION...DRY SAT THEN A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH FOR SAT NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY SUN...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR RAIN SUN NIGHT...DECREASING TO CHC MON AND MON NIGHT. TUE/WED
DRY ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT SMALL CHC FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS
THE OP MODELS SHOWING A LOW MOVING JUST E OF THE AREA THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. W-NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL GUST 20-25 KT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS DO SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 10 KT TOWARD SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...VFR EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/FOG.
TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE WATERS TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST GALES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART
FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AS STRONGER GUSTS HAVE NOT MIXED DOWN QUITE
AS EFFECTIVELY AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE LATEST DOWNSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS AND HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURGE OF COLDER
AIR ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS. STILL EXPECT PREDOMINATELY SCA-
LEVEL WINDS BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS TO GALES WILL BE
HIGHEST EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL THEREFORE BE CONSERVATIVE AND
KEEP THE GLW UP FOR THE LOWER DE BAY AND ATLANTIC ZONES THRU 7 AM.
AFTER GLW EXPIRES, A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR TODAY.

SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
NORTHWEST AND VERY DRY AIR. FREQUENT WEST-NORTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS START TO WEAKEN
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. FORECAST MINIMUM RHS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S BUT MAY REACH THE 30 PERCENT RED FLAG
CRITERIA IN A FEW SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER, THESE MIN RHS THIS AFTERNOON MAY NOT COINCIDE WITH THE
FREQUENT 20 MPH GUSTS, WHICH WOULD LOWER THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
YESTERDAY`S FUEL MOISTURE OBSERVATIONS OBTAINED FROM THE NFDRS WAS
BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE DAY AREA. WE WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
COORDINATE WITH STATE OFFICIALS BEFORE ANY ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
STATEMENT IS ISSUED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN








000
FXUS61 KPHI 211155
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
655 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO
OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT WHILE
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP CAPTURES A POLAR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR THIS MORNING.
THE END RESULT WILL BE DAY 3 THIS WEEK OF WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEEP MIXED
LAYER AROUND 4-5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND
-14C TODAY, WHICH WOULD BE 1 TO 2C HIGHER THAN IT WAS THIS PAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, WAS A REASONABLE PROXY FOR DETERMINING FULL
HEATING POTENTIAL. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S (EXCEPT
MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS).

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS MORNING WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS BEFORE IT
GRADUALLY RELAXES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY
THIS MORNING, CAUSING A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND NEAR BGM TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD. IF IT IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF ENOUGH DOWNWIND, THE
POCONOS AND THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF SUSSEX COUNTY MAY SEE A FEW
FLURRIES THIS MORNING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THERE
MAY ALREADY BE FLURRIES OCCURRING BUT THE RADAR WOULD OVERSHOOT ANY
OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WAA WILL
OCCUR OVERHEAD TONIGHT AS THE 925-850 MB  RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. DO
NOT EXPECT THE WARM AIR ALOFT TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON SURFACE
TEMPS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES UNDER A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP. MIN TEMP FORECAST WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE COLDER MAV
GUIDANCE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
IN THE MORE RURAL AREAS AND LOW TO MID 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL
LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERNS CHANGE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
LONGER TERM PARTS OF THE FCST. THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
REMAINS...BUT THE COLDEST AIR MOVES AWAY SAT/EARLY SUN AS SOME
PROGRESSIVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE ERN U.S. MORE COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD UP ACROSS CNTRL CANADA TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES...COLD SAT WITH READINGS STILL SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING EAST OF THE REGION. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE IN STORE FOR MONDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
MOST AREAS WITH SOME 70S ALSO POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. NORMAL TEMPS : PHL/ACY...MAX 50-52..MIN 35-37. RDG/ABE...MAX
48-50..MIN 30-32 GED...MAX 52-54..MIN 33-35.

PRECIPITATION...DRY SAT THEN A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH FOR SAT NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY SUN...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR RAIN SUN NIGHT...DECREASING TO CHC MON AND MON NIGHT. TUE/WED
DRY ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT SMALL CHC FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS
THE OP MODELS SHOWING A LOW MOVING JUST E OF THE AREA THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. W-NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL GUST 20-25 KT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS DO SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 10 KT TOWARD SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...VFR EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/FOG.
TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WAS ALSO ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE WATERS TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST GALES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART
FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AS STRONGER GUSTS HAVE NOT MIXED DOWN QUITE
AS EFFECTIVELY AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE LATEST DOWNSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS AND HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SURGE OF COLDER
AIR ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS. STILL EXPECT PREDOMINATELY SCA-
LEVEL WINDS BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS TO GALES WILL BE
HIGHEST EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL THEREFORE BE CONSERVATIVE AND
KEEP THE GLW UP FOR THE LOWER DE BAY AND ATLANTIC ZONES THRU 7 AM.
AFTER GLW EXPIRES, A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR TODAY.

SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY ON THE OCEAN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
NORTHWEST AND VERY DRY AIR. FREQUENT WEST-NORTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS START TO WEAKEN
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. FORECAST MINIMUM RHS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S BUT MAY REACH THE 30 PERCENT RED FLAG
CRITERIA IN A FEW SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER, THESE MIN RHS THIS AFTERNOON MAY NOT COINCIDE WITH THE
FREQUENT 20 MPH GUSTS, WHICH WOULD LOWER THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
YESTERDAY`S FUEL MOISTURE OBSERVATIONS OBTAINED FROM THE NFDRS WAS
BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE DAY AREA. WE WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
COORDINATE WITH STATE OFFICIALS BEFORE ANY ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
STATEMENT IS ISSUED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210847
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO
OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT WHILE
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP CAPTURES A POLAR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR THIS MORNING.
THE END RESULT WILL BE DAY 3 THIS WEEK OF WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEEP MIXED
LAYER AROUND 4-5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND
-14C TODAY, WHICH WOULD BE 1 TO 2C HIGHER THAN IT WAS THIS PAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, WAS A REASONABLE PROXY FOR DETERMINING FULL
HEATING POTENTIAL. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S (EXCEPT
MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS).

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS MORNING WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS BEFORE IT
GRADUALLY RELAXES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY
THIS MORNING, CAUSING A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND NEAR BGM TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD. IF IT IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF ENOUGH DOWNWIND, THE
POCONOS AND THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF SUSSEX COUNTY MAY SEE A FEW
FLURRIES THIS MORNING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THERE
MAY ALREADY BE FLURRIES OCCURRING BUT THE RADAR WOULD OVERSHOOT ANY
OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WAA WILL
OCCUR OVERHEAD TONIGHT AS THE 925-850 MB  RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. DO
NOT EXPECT THE WARM AIR ALOFT TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON SURFACE
TEMPS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES UNDER A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP. MIN TEMP FORECAST WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE COLDER MAV
GUIDANCE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
IN THE MORE RURAL AREAS AND LOW TO MID 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL
LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERNS CHANGE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
LONGER TERM PARTS OF THE FCST. THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
REMAINS...BUT THE COLDEST AIR MOVES AWAY SAT/EARLY SUN AS SOME
PROGRESSIVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE ERN U.S. MORE COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD UP ACROSS CNTRL CANADA TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES...COLD SAT WITH READINGS STILL SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING EAST OF THE REGION. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE IN STORE FOR MONDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
MOST AREAS WITH SOME 70S ALSO POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. NORMAL TEMPS : PHL/ACY...MAX 50-52..MIN 35-37. RDG/ABE...MAX
48-50..MIN 30-32 GED...MAX 52-54..MIN 33-35.

PRECIPITATION...DRY SAT THEN A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH FOR SAT NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY SUN...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR RAIN SUN NIGHT...DECREASING TO CHC MON AND MON NIGHT. TUE/WED
DRY ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT SMALL CHC FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS
THE OP MODELS SHOWING A LOW MOVING JUST E OF THE AREA THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. W-NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL GUST 20-25 KT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS DO SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 10 KT TOWARD SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...VFR EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/FOG.
TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FORECAST GALES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AS
STRONGER GUSTS HAVE NOT MIXED DOWN QUITE AS EFFECTIVELY AS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, THE LATEST DOWNSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SURGE OF COLDER AIR ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS. STILL
EXPECT PREDOMINATELY SCA-LEVEL WINDS BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
GUSTS TO GALES WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL THEREFORE BE
CONSERVATIVE AND KEEP THE GLW UP FOR THE LOWER DE BAY AND ATLANTIC
ZONES THRU 7 AM. AFTER GLW EXPIRES, A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR TODAY.

SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY ON THE OCEAN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
NORTHWEST AND VERY DRY AIR. FREQUENT WEST-NORTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS START TO WEAKEN
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. FORECAST MINIMUM RHS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S BUT MAY REACH THE 30 PERCENT RED FLAG
CRITERIA IN A FEW SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER, THESE MIN RHS THIS AFTERNOON MAY NOT COINCIDE WITH THE
FREQUENT 20 MPH GUSTS, WHICH WOULD LOWER THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
YESTERDAY`S FUEL MOISTURE OBSERVATIONS OBTAINED FROM THE NFDRS WAS
BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE DAY AREA. WE WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
COORDINATE WITH STATE OFFICIALS BEFORE ANY ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
STATEMENT IS ISSUED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 210847
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO
OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT WHILE
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE CWA YESTERDAY WAS LOCATED OFF
THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP CAPTURES A POLAR TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST STATES. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN COLD AIR THIS MORNING.
THE END RESULT WILL BE DAY 3 THIS WEEK OF WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES
FOR THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DEEP MIXED
LAYER AROUND 4-5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS OF AROUND
-14C TODAY, WHICH WOULD BE 1 TO 2C HIGHER THAN IT WAS THIS PAST
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, WAS A REASONABLE PROXY FOR DETERMINING FULL
HEATING POTENTIAL. THIS TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE MID 30S (EXCEPT
MID TO UPPER 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS).

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS MORNING WITH 20-30 MPH GUSTS BEFORE IT
GRADUALLY RELAXES THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA.

BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY
THIS MORNING, CAUSING A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND NEAR BGM TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD. IF IT IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF ENOUGH DOWNWIND, THE
POCONOS AND THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF SUSSEX COUNTY MAY SEE A FEW
FLURRIES THIS MORNING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THERE
MAY ALREADY BE FLURRIES OCCURRING BUT THE RADAR WOULD OVERSHOOT ANY
OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WITH THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WAA WILL
OCCUR OVERHEAD TONIGHT AS THE 925-850 MB  RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD. DO
NOT EXPECT THE WARM AIR ALOFT TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON SURFACE
TEMPS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES UNDER A GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP. MIN TEMP FORECAST WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE COLDER MAV
GUIDANCE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
IN THE MORE RURAL AREAS AND LOW TO MID 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL
LOCALES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER PATTERNS CHANGE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
LONGER TERM PARTS OF THE FCST. THE MEAN TROUGH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
REMAINS...BUT THE COLDEST AIR MOVES AWAY SAT/EARLY SUN AS SOME
PROGRESSIVE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE ERN U.S. MORE COLDER AIR BEGINS
TO BUILD UP ACROSS CNTRL CANADA TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES...COLD SAT WITH READINGS STILL SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING EAST OF THE REGION. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
ARE IN STORE FOR MONDAY...WHEN HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S IN
MOST AREAS WITH SOME 70S ALSO POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY...THEN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. NORMAL TEMPS : PHL/ACY...MAX 50-52..MIN 35-37. RDG/ABE...MAX
48-50..MIN 30-32 GED...MAX 52-54..MIN 33-35.

PRECIPITATION...DRY SAT THEN A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH FOR SAT NIGHT. MOSTLY DRY SUN...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS
FOR RAIN SUN NIGHT...DECREASING TO CHC MON AND MON NIGHT. TUE/WED
DRY ACROSS MOST AREAS...BUT SMALL CHC FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST AS
THE OP MODELS SHOWING A LOW MOVING JUST E OF THE AREA THEN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. W-NW WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL GUST 20-25 KT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS DO SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO
UNDER 10 KT TOWARD SUNSET AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU SUN...VFR EXPECTED. INCREASING CLOUDS SUN.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/FOG.
TUE...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FORECAST GALES HAVE FOR THE MOST PART FAILED TO MATERIALIZE AS
STRONGER GUSTS HAVE NOT MIXED DOWN QUITE AS EFFECTIVELY AS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, THE LATEST DOWNSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SURGE OF COLDER AIR ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS. STILL
EXPECT PREDOMINATELY SCA-LEVEL WINDS BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
GUSTS TO GALES WILL BE HIGHEST EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL THEREFORE BE
CONSERVATIVE AND KEEP THE GLW UP FOR THE LOWER DE BAY AND ATLANTIC
ZONES THRU 7 AM. AFTER GLW EXPIRES, A SCA WILL BE NEEDED FOR TODAY.

SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUN...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUN NIGHT THRU MON NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
TUE...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY ON THE OCEAN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TODAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
NORTHWEST AND VERY DRY AIR. FREQUENT WEST-NORTHWEST GUSTS BETWEEN 20
AND 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS START TO WEAKEN
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. FORECAST MINIMUM RHS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 30S BUT MAY REACH THE 30 PERCENT RED FLAG
CRITERIA IN A FEW SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER, THESE MIN RHS THIS AFTERNOON MAY NOT COINCIDE WITH THE
FREQUENT 20 MPH GUSTS, WHICH WOULD LOWER THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
YESTERDAY`S FUEL MOISTURE OBSERVATIONS OBTAINED FROM THE NFDRS WAS
BELOW 10 PERCENT IN THE DAY AREA. WE WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT
COORDINATE WITH STATE OFFICIALS BEFORE ANY ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
STATEMENT IS ISSUED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210230
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA LATER
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, THEN A WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD
FROM THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE LOWER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AN AREA OF ALTOCUMULUS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
VICINITY THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST AND THEY SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS ANTICIPATED.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS UP NORTH AND INTO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONTINUED DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE
OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. MAINTAINING SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS
FOR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES AND
850/925 MB TEMPS ALONG WITH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS SHOW OUR
REGION ONLY HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 30`S ON
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG CAA, THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP FEATURES A PATTERN CHANGE, WHICH IS A
RESULT OF ENERGY DRIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING TO PUSH EASTWARD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST. THE SOUTHERN ENERGY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP CYCLONE TRACKING UP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT MAY DEAMPLIFY INTO
THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND OVERALL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE GETS UNDERWAY AS
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
IS FORECAST TO SETTLE NEARLY RIGHT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO START BACKING
ALLOWING WAA TO GET UNDERWAY. THIS RIBBON OF WAA ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY WILL TEAM UP
WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY
IS MORE DEFINED AROUND 850 MB THOUGH AND THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF AROUND THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME OF THIS MAY SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING. GIVEN THE WARMING ALOFT, ANY LIGHT QPF THAT CAN GET TO
OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST ZONES COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW PROBABILITY ATTM ALONG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
AND THEREFORE KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH THE WAA WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD ALSO BE HIGH
CLOUDINESS AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL DRIVE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM, INCREASING
WAA AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE
LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THIS WILL BE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BE AIDED BY AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS DEVELOP WITHIN THE OVERRUNNING REGIME WITH A WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIR MASS SURGING NORTHWARD. AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY, A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
IN OUR AREA LATE. HOWEVER, A DRY SLOT LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA
DURING MONDAY THEREFORE AFTER SOME EARLY RAIN THE CHC OF LINGERING
SHOWERS LOOKS ON THE LOW SIDE. WE CARRIED CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN THESE TAPER DOWN RAPIDLY AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WAA, A SURGE IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATING WITH SOME AREAS NEARING 70 DEGREES
FOR A TIME DESPITE BEING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER. THE RECORD
HIGHS FOR MONDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AND IF
WE CAN GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIX DECENTLY THEN SOME SPOTS COULD
HAVE A SHOT AT THESE RECORDS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING GRADUALLY OFFSHORE AND THIS WILL ALLOW CAA TO KICK IN AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES. THE ACTUAL TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST, AND THIS COULD SLOW THE FRONT DOWN AS IT EASES
OFFSHORE. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MAY INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER
LOOKS TO TRACK OFFSHORE THOUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE MOSTLY
FOLLOWED THE 12Z WPC POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THERE BECOMES MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE EAST, DUE TO WHAT OCCURS ACROSS THE WEST. SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS OF NOW, WE WENT MUCH CLOSER TO THE 12Z
WPC GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE ECMWF
MEAN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT SHOULD FAVOR THE 8 TO 12 KNOT
RANGE. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR, WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST, THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR FOR AWHILE SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS, THEN CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR /POTENTIALLY IFR/ SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING MONDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS EACH
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET AROUND 50 KNOTS MOVES
THROUGH.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE WINDS BECOMING
WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 35 KNOTS
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FROM 07-11Z. SOME UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT
IN EXACTLY WHEN THE WINDS WILL START TO SLACKEN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND
16Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL ONLY HAVE THE GALE WARNING
GO TO 12Z FRIDAY ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS FRIDAY
EVENING, THEN GENERALLY THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
HOWEVER MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARMER AIR MASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH
TENDS TO NOT ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THEREFORE, KEPT
GUSTS BELOW GALE CRITERIA. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, DID GO
BELOW WAVEWATCH BY ABOUT A FOOT AS IT TENDS TO OVERDO THE SEAS
WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME.

TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, AND THE SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS FLOW WILL CREATE LOW WATER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED INLETS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN SOME CONCERN FOR BLOWOUT TIDES
NEAR THE TIME OF LOW TIDE...WHICH TONIGHT OCCURS WITHIN AN HOUR
EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST...AND LATER TONIGHT IN THE
DELAWARE BAY. DBOFS AND CBOFS INDICATE WATER LEVELS GETTING WITHIN
A TENTH OF A FOOT OR SO OF BLOWOUT CONDITIONS (MINUS 1.8 FEET
MLLW), WHILE ETSURGE GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE. BASED
ON THE FACT THAT ONE MODEL IS JUST BARELY BRINGING US TO BLOWOUT
CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER ISN`T SO CLOSE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
STATEMENTS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210230
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA LATER
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, THEN A WARM FRONT
LIFTS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD
FROM THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE LOWER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AN AREA OF ALTOCUMULUS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
VICINITY THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST AND THEY SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR REGION BY
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS ANTICIPATED.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS UP NORTH AND INTO THE 20S
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONTINUED DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE
OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. MAINTAINING SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS
FOR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES AND
850/925 MB TEMPS ALONG WITH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS SHOW OUR
REGION ONLY HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 30`S ON
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG CAA, THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP FEATURES A PATTERN CHANGE, WHICH IS A
RESULT OF ENERGY DRIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING TO PUSH EASTWARD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST. THE SOUTHERN ENERGY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP CYCLONE TRACKING UP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT MAY DEAMPLIFY INTO
THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND OVERALL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE GETS UNDERWAY AS
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
IS FORECAST TO SETTLE NEARLY RIGHT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO START BACKING
ALLOWING WAA TO GET UNDERWAY. THIS RIBBON OF WAA ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY WILL TEAM UP
WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY
IS MORE DEFINED AROUND 850 MB THOUGH AND THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF AROUND THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME OF THIS MAY SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING. GIVEN THE WARMING ALOFT, ANY LIGHT QPF THAT CAN GET TO
OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST ZONES COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW PROBABILITY ATTM ALONG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
AND THEREFORE KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH THE WAA WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD ALSO BE HIGH
CLOUDINESS AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL DRIVE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM, INCREASING
WAA AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE
LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THIS WILL BE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BE AIDED BY AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS DEVELOP WITHIN THE OVERRUNNING REGIME WITH A WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIR MASS SURGING NORTHWARD. AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY, A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
IN OUR AREA LATE. HOWEVER, A DRY SLOT LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA
DURING MONDAY THEREFORE AFTER SOME EARLY RAIN THE CHC OF LINGERING
SHOWERS LOOKS ON THE LOW SIDE. WE CARRIED CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN THESE TAPER DOWN RAPIDLY AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WAA, A SURGE IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATING WITH SOME AREAS NEARING 70 DEGREES
FOR A TIME DESPITE BEING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER. THE RECORD
HIGHS FOR MONDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AND IF
WE CAN GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIX DECENTLY THEN SOME SPOTS COULD
HAVE A SHOT AT THESE RECORDS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING GRADUALLY OFFSHORE AND THIS WILL ALLOW CAA TO KICK IN AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES. THE ACTUAL TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST, AND THIS COULD SLOW THE FRONT DOWN AS IT EASES
OFFSHORE. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MAY INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER
LOOKS TO TRACK OFFSHORE THOUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE MOSTLY
FOLLOWED THE 12Z WPC POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THERE BECOMES MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE EAST, DUE TO WHAT OCCURS ACROSS THE WEST. SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS OF NOW, WE WENT MUCH CLOSER TO THE 12Z
WPC GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE ECMWF
MEAN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT SHOULD FAVOR THE 8 TO 12 KNOT
RANGE. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR, WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST, THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR FOR AWHILE SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS, THEN CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR /POTENTIALLY IFR/ SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING MONDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS EACH
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET AROUND 50 KNOTS MOVES
THROUGH.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE WINDS BECOMING
WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 35 KNOTS
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FROM 07-11Z. SOME UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT
IN EXACTLY WHEN THE WINDS WILL START TO SLACKEN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND
16Z FRIDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL ONLY HAVE THE GALE WARNING
GO TO 12Z FRIDAY ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS FRIDAY
EVENING, THEN GENERALLY THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
HOWEVER MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARMER AIR MASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH
TENDS TO NOT ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THEREFORE, KEPT
GUSTS BELOW GALE CRITERIA. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, DID GO
BELOW WAVEWATCH BY ABOUT A FOOT AS IT TENDS TO OVERDO THE SEAS
WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME.

TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, AND THE SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST. THIS FLOW WILL CREATE LOW WATER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED INLETS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN SOME CONCERN FOR BLOWOUT TIDES
NEAR THE TIME OF LOW TIDE...WHICH TONIGHT OCCURS WITHIN AN HOUR
EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST...AND LATER TONIGHT IN THE
DELAWARE BAY. DBOFS AND CBOFS INDICATE WATER LEVELS GETTING WITHIN
A TENTH OF A FOOT OR SO OF BLOWOUT CONDITIONS (MINUS 1.8 FEET
MLLW), WHILE ETSURGE GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE. BASED
ON THE FACT THAT ONE MODEL IS JUST BARELY BRINGING US TO BLOWOUT
CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER ISN`T SO CLOSE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
STATEMENTS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 202308
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
608 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TONIGHT, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, THEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
ENTERING THE REGION. A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVENT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. FOR TEMPERATURES, STARTED WITH LAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EVENING SINCE IT HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON
RECENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. WENT AT OR A TOUCH COOLER IN SPOTS WITH
LOWS, SUSTAINED WINDS ARGUE FOR WARMER LOWS BUT THE DEGREE OF THE
AIR MASS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATED BY STAT GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONTINUED DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE
OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. MAINTAINING SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS
FOR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES AND
850/925 MB TEMPS ALONG WITH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS SHOW OUR
REGION ONLY HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 30`S ON
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG CAA, THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP FEATURES A PATTERN CHANGE, WHICH IS A
RESULT OF ENERGY DRIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING TO PUSH EASTWARD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST. THE SOUTHERN ENERGY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP CYCLONE TRACKING UP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT MAY DEAMPLIFY INTO
THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND OVERALL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE GETS UNDERWAY AS
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
IS FORECAST TO SETTLE NEARLY RIGHT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO START BACKING
ALLOWING WAA TO GET UNDERWAY. THIS RIBBON OF WAA ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY WILL TEAM UP
WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY
IS MORE DEFINED AROUND 850 MB THOUGH AND THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF AROUND THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME OF THIS MAY SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING. GIVEN THE WARMING ALOFT, ANY LIGHT QPF THAT CAN GET TO
OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST ZONES COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW PROBABILITY ATTM ALONG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
AND THEREFORE KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH THE WAA WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD ALSO BE HIGH
CLOUDINESS AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL DRIVE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM, INCREASING
WAA AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE
LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THIS WILL BE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BE AIDED BY AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS DEVELOP WITHIN THE OVERRUNNING REGIME WITH A WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIR MASS SURGING NORTHWARD. AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY, A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
IN OUR AREA LATE. HOWEVER, A DRY SLOT LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA
DURING MONDAY THEREFORE AFTER SOME EARLY RAIN THE CHC OF LINGERING
SHOWERS LOOKS ON THE LOW SIDE. WE CARRIED CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN THESE TAPER DOWN RAPIDLY AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WAA, A SURGE IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATING WITH SOME AREAS NEARING 70 DEGREES
FOR A TIME DESPITE BEING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER. THE RECORD
HIGHS FOR MONDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AND IF
WE CAN GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIX DECENTLY THEN SOME SPOTS COULD
HAVE A SHOT AT THESE RECORDS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING GRADUALLY OFFSHORE AND THIS WILL ALLOW CAA TO KICK IN AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES. THE ACTUAL TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST, AND THIS COULD SLOW THE FRONT DOWN AS IT EASES
OFFSHORE. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MAY INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER
LOOKS TO TRACK OFFSHORE THOUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE MOSTLY
FOLLOWED THE 12Z WPC POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THERE BECOMES MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE EAST, DUE TO WHAT OCCURS ACROSS THE WEST. SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS OF NOW, WE WENT MUCH CLOSER TO THE 12Z
WPC GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE ECMWF
MEAN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT SHOULD FAVOR THE 8 TO 12 KNOT
RANGE. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR, WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST, THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR FOR AWHILE SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS, THEN CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR /POTENTIALLY IFR/ SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING MONDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS EACH
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET AROUND 50 KNOTS MOVES
THROUGH.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE WINDS BECOMING
WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 35 KNOTS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FROM 07-11Z. SOME UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT IN EXACTLY
WHEN THE WINDS WILL START TO SLACKEN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL ONLY HAVE THE GALE WARNING GO
TO 12Z FRIDAY ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS FRIDAY
EVENING, THEN GENERALLY THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
HOWEVER MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARMER AIR MASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH
TENDS TO NOT ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THEREFORE, KEPT
GUSTS BELOW GALE CRITERIA. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, DID GO
BELOW WAVEWATCH BY ABOUT A FOOT AS IT TENDS TO OVERDO THE SEAS
WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME.

TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, AND THE SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS FLOW WILL CREATE LOW WATER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED INLETS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN SOME CONCERN FOR BLOWOUT TIDES
NEAR THE TIME OF LOW TIDE...WHICH TONIGHT OCCURS WITHIN AN HOUR
EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST...AND LATER TONIGHT IN THE
DELAWARE BAY. DBOFS AND CBOFS INDICATE WATER LEVELS GETTING WITHIN
A TENTH OF A FOOT OR SO OF BLOWOUT CONDITIONS (MINUS 1.8 FEET
MLLW), WHILE ETSURGE GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE. BASED
ON THE FACT THAT ONE MODEL IS JUST BARELY BRINGING US TO BLOWOUT
CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER ISN`T SO CLOSE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
STATEMENTS AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WE WILL OBVIOUSLY BE WATCHING
THE SITUATION THIS EVENING AND ISSUE LATER STATEMENTS, IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...IOVINO/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 202308
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
608 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TONIGHT, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, THEN A WARM FRONT LIFTS
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WAS SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. TONIGHT
WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
ENTERING THE REGION. A DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVENT ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. FOR TEMPERATURES, STARTED WITH LAV
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EVENING SINCE IT HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON
RECENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. WENT AT OR A TOUCH COOLER IN SPOTS WITH
LOWS, SUSTAINED WINDS ARGUE FOR WARMER LOWS BUT THE DEGREE OF THE
AIR MASS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATED BY STAT GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONTINUED DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE
OF THE POCONOS AND NW NJ. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. MAINTAINING SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS
FOR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES AND
850/925 MB TEMPS ALONG WITH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS SHOW OUR
REGION ONLY HAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 30`S ON
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG CAA, THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP FEATURES A PATTERN CHANGE, WHICH IS A
RESULT OF ENERGY DRIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING TO PUSH EASTWARD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST. THE SOUTHERN ENERGY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP CYCLONE TRACKING UP ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE EAST
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT MAY DEAMPLIFY INTO
THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND OVERALL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE GETS UNDERWAY AS
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
IS FORECAST TO SETTLE NEARLY RIGHT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO START BACKING
ALLOWING WAA TO GET UNDERWAY. THIS RIBBON OF WAA ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY WILL TEAM UP
WITH A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY
IS MORE DEFINED AROUND 850 MB THOUGH AND THERE APPEARS TO BE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT QPF AROUND THE GREAT LAKES.
SOME OF THIS MAY SETTLE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING. GIVEN THE WARMING ALOFT, ANY LIGHT QPF THAT CAN GET TO
OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST ZONES COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN.
THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW PROBABILITY ATTM ALONG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
AND THEREFORE KEPT POPS AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH THE WAA WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD ALSO BE HIGH
CLOUDINESS AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL DRIVE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM, INCREASING
WAA AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE
LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THIS WILL BE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BE AIDED BY AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS DEVELOP WITHIN THE OVERRUNNING REGIME WITH A WARMER AND
MORE MOIST AIR MASS SURGING NORTHWARD. AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY, A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
IN OUR AREA LATE. HOWEVER, A DRY SLOT LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA
DURING MONDAY THEREFORE AFTER SOME EARLY RAIN THE CHC OF LINGERING
SHOWERS LOOKS ON THE LOW SIDE. WE CARRIED CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN THESE TAPER DOWN RAPIDLY AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WAA, A SURGE IN THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATING WITH SOME AREAS NEARING 70 DEGREES
FOR A TIME DESPITE BEING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER. THE RECORD
HIGHS FOR MONDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AND IF
WE CAN GET ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIX DECENTLY THEN SOME SPOTS COULD
HAVE A SHOT AT THESE RECORDS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING GRADUALLY OFFSHORE AND THIS WILL ALLOW CAA TO KICK IN AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES. THE ACTUAL TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST, AND THIS COULD SLOW THE FRONT DOWN AS IT EASES
OFFSHORE. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
MAY INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER
LOOKS TO TRACK OFFSHORE THOUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE MOSTLY
FOLLOWED THE 12Z WPC POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THERE BECOMES MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE EAST, DUE TO WHAT OCCURS ACROSS THE WEST. SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS OF NOW, WE WENT MUCH CLOSER TO THE 12Z
WPC GUIDANCE WHICH FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE ECMWF
MEAN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND TONIGHT SHOULD FAVOR THE 8 TO 12 KNOT
RANGE. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR, WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST, THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR FOR AWHILE SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS, THEN CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR /POTENTIALLY IFR/ SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING MONDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS
MAY LINGER. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS EACH
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET AROUND 50 KNOTS MOVES
THROUGH.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE WINDS BECOMING
WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 35 KNOTS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FROM 07-11Z. SOME UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT IN EXACTLY
WHEN THE WINDS WILL START TO SLACKEN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL ONLY HAVE THE GALE WARNING GO
TO 12Z FRIDAY ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS FRIDAY
EVENING, THEN GENERALLY THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
HOWEVER MAY ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARMER AIR MASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH
TENDS TO NOT ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THEREFORE, KEPT
GUSTS BELOW GALE CRITERIA. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, DID GO
BELOW WAVEWATCH BY ABOUT A FOOT AS IT TENDS TO OVERDO THE SEAS
WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME.

TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, AND THE SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS FLOW WILL CREATE LOW WATER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED INLETS TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN SOME CONCERN FOR BLOWOUT TIDES
NEAR THE TIME OF LOW TIDE...WHICH TONIGHT OCCURS WITHIN AN HOUR
EITHER SIDE OF MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST...AND LATER TONIGHT IN THE
DELAWARE BAY. DBOFS AND CBOFS INDICATE WATER LEVELS GETTING WITHIN
A TENTH OF A FOOT OR SO OF BLOWOUT CONDITIONS (MINUS 1.8 FEET
MLLW), WHILE ETSURGE GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE. BASED
ON THE FACT THAT ONE MODEL IS JUST BARELY BRINGING US TO BLOWOUT
CONDITIONS AND ANOTHER ISN`T SO CLOSE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
STATEMENTS AT THIS POINT IN TIME. WE WILL OBVIOUSLY BE WATCHING
THE SITUATION THIS EVENING AND ISSUE LATER STATEMENTS, IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...IOVINO/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 202048
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA
LATER FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, THEN A WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY.
AS A RESULT, WE WERE ABLE TO GET A FEW HOURS OF MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND A FEW DEGREES TACKED ON TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES. A NICE BREAK
FROM THE EARLY SEASON COLD. HOWEVER, TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT, WINDS WILL GO BACK MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR ENTERING THE REGION. A DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVENT ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. FOR TEMPERATURES, STARTED
WITH LAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EVENING SINCE IT HAS A BETTER HANDLE
ON RECENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. WENT AT OR A TOUCH COOLER IN SPOTS
WITH LOWS, SUSTAINED WINDS ARGUE FOR WARMER LOWS BUT THE DEGREE OF
THE AIRMASS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATED BY STAT GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO OUR REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CONTINUED DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OUTSIDE OF
THE POCONOS AND NW NJ. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME
MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. MAINTAINING SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN THE GRIDS FOR NW
NJ AND THE POCONOS. MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES AND 850/925 MB TEMPS
ALONG WITH MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS SHOW OUR REGION ONLY HAVING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 30`S ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG CAA,
THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP FEATURES A PATTERN CHANGE, WHICH IS A
RESULT OF ENERGY DRIVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT
WHICH EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING TO PUSH EASTWARD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
OUT OF THE EAST. THE SOUTHERN ENERGY LOOKS TO AMPLIFY AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEEP CYCLONE TRACKING UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY ARRIVES IN THE EAST LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT MAY DEAMPLIFY INTO THURSDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND OVERALL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN THE
12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE GETS UNDERWAY AS A
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS
FORECAST TO SETTLE NEARLY RIGHT OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DEPARTS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO START BACKING ALLOWING WAA
TO GET UNDERWAY. THIS RIBBON OF WAA ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN THE
FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST ESPECIALLY WILL TEAM UP WITH A WEAKENING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS THERMAL BOUNDARY IS MORE DEFINED
AROUND 850 MB THOUGH AND THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT QPF AROUND THE GREAT LAKES. SOME OF THIS MAY SETTLE
SOUTHEASTWARD DURING SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. GIVEN THE
WARMING ALOFT, ANY LIGHT QPF THAT CAN GET TO OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST
ZONES COULD BE A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN. THIS LOOKS LIKE A LOW
PROBABILITY ATTM ALONG WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND THEREFORE KEPT POPS
AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH THE WAA
WILL ALLOW SOME MODERATION IN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD ALSO BE HIGH CLOUDINESS AROUND.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL DRIVE A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM, INCREASING WAA AND
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH AN AREA OF LARGE SCALE LIFT TO
PRODUCE SOME RAIN. THIS WILL BE WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD BE AIDED BY AN INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL JET, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
DEVELOP WITHIN THE OVERRUNNING REGIME WITH A WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIRMASS SURGING NORTHWARD. AS THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY, A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN OUR
AREA LATE. HOWEVER, A DRY SLOT LOOKS TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA DURING
MONDAY THEREFORE AFTER SOME EARLY RAIN THE CHC OF LINGERING SHOWERS
LOOKS ON THE LOW SIDE. WE CARRIED CATEGORICAL POPS SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN THESE TAPER DOWN RAPIDLY AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. GIVEN THE
STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WAA, A SURGE IN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATING WITH SOME AREAS NEARING 70 DEGREES FOR A TIME
DESPITE BEING THE SECOND HALF OF NOVEMBER. THE RECORD HIGHS FOR
MONDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, AND IF WE CAN GET
ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIX DECENTLY THEN SOME SPOTS COULD HAVE A SHOT
AT THESE RECORDS.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
BE SHIFTING GRADUALLY OFFSHORE AND THIS WILL ALLOW CAA TO KICK IN AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES. THE ACTUAL TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST, AND THIS COULD SLOW THE FRONT DOWN AS IT EASES
OFFSHORE. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY
INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE HOWEVER LOOKS TO
TRACK OFFSHORE THOUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. WE MOSTLY FOLLOWED THE
12Z WPC POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THERE BECOMES MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE EAST, DUE TO WHAT OCCURS ACROSS THE WEST. SOME GUIDANCE
SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE EAST LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. AS OF NOW, WE WENT MUCH CLOSER TO THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE
WHICH FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND THE ECMWF MEAN FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ONLY SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. SPORADIC GUSTS AROUND
25 KNOTS HAVE OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE GUSTS IN THE
TAFS THROUGH 22Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE AGAIN FRIDAY FOR
AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
MORE NORTH OF WEST ON FRIDAY AROUND 300 COMPARED TO THE SOUTH OF
WEST TODAY AROUND 250/260.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR, WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LATE SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY
NIGHT BECOMING SOUTHWEST, THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR FOR AWHILE SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS, THEN CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR /POTENTIALLY IFR/ SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A PERIOD OF RAIN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR DURING MONDAY ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY
LINGER. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS EACH
AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET AROUND 50 KNOTS MOVES
THROUGH.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH A SHOWER POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THE WINDS BECOMING
WEST-SOUTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF FRIDAY. ONCE AGAIN THE POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO AROUND 35 KNOTS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FROM 07-11Z. SOME UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT IN EXACTLY
WHEN THE WINDS WILL START TO SLACKEN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z FRIDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL ONLY HAVE THE GALE WARNING GO TO 12Z FRIDAY
ATTM.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS FRIDAY EVENING,
THEN GENERALLY THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW HOWEVER MAY ALLOW
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARMER AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH TENDS
TO NOT ALLOW FOR A FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. THEREFORE, KEPT GUSTS
BELOW GALE CRITERIA. GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, DID GO BELOW
WAVEWATCH BY ABOUT A FOOT AS IT TENDS TO OVERDO THE SEAS WITHIN THIS
FLOW REGIME.

TUESDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA,
AND THE SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING BELOW 5 FEET.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES OFF THE COAST. THIS FLOW WILL CREATE LOW WATER CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST AND ASSOCIATED INLETS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS EVEN SOME CONCERN FOR BLOWOUT TIDES NEAR THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE...WHICH TONIGHT OCCURS WITHIN AN HOUR EITHER SIDE
OF MIDNIGHT ALONG THE COAST...AND LATER TONIGHT IN THE DELAWARE BAY.
DBOFS AND CBOFS INDICATE WATER LEVELS GETTING WITHIN A TENTH OF A
FOOT OR SO OF BLOWOUT CONDITIONS (MINUS 1.8 FEET MLLW), WHILE
ETSURGE GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE. BASED ON THE FACT THAT
ONE MODEL IS JUST BARELY BRINGING US TO BLOWOUT CONDITIONS AND
ANOTHER ISN`T SO CLOSE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY STATEMENTS AT THIS
POINT IN TIME. WE WILL OBVIOUSLY BE WATCHING THE SITUATION THIS
EVENING AND ISSUE LATER STATEMENTS, IF NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 201945
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
245 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATER TODAY. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, CRESTING
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST, AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE REGION AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY.

DUE TO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT, WARMER AIR HAS MADE ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA ON THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND
THE AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN COOLER, IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BUT WILL
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. SKIES
HAVE LARGELY CLEARED OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AREAS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT 5-10,000 FEET HAVE BECOME
MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY SCATTERED MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS. SPORADIC GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS HAVE OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE GUSTS IN THE TAFS THROUGH 22Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE AGAIN FRIDAY FOR AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS.
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE MORE NORTH OF WEST AROUND 300 COMPARED
TO THE SOUTH FO WEST TODAY AROUND 250/260.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE FROPA AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...GAINES/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201736
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1236 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATER TODAY. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, CRESTING
OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST, AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LOW WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE REGION AND WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TODAY.

DUE TO THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT, WARMER AIR HAS MADE ITS
WAY INTO THE AREA ON THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WERE
ADJUSTED TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS.
SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND
THE AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN COOLER, IN THE MID 30S TO
NEAR 40.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION BUT WILL
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. SKIES
HAVE LARGELY CLEARED OUT AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ANY CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. WINDS...WILL BECOME WRLY AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE FROPA AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 201636
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1136 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

11:30 AM UPDATE: UPDATING EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN ON THE WARMER END OF WHAT OUR FORECASTING TOOLS SHOW US.
RAISED HOURLY AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
REGION PER LAV AND HOURLY OBS. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOUTHERN
DELMARVA LOCATIONS HAVE A SHOT AT MID 50`S FOR HIGHS TODAY. WIND
SHIFT TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH IS STILL OCCURRING BUT MAY BE
LAGGING BY A HOUR OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

STILL EXPECTING A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS TO RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TOOK THE GALE FLAG DOWN AND RAISED SCA FLAG FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE
FROPA AND FRIDAY. UPCOMING SHIFT CAN DECIDE ON FUTURE FLAGS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201636
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1136 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

11:30 AM UPDATE: UPDATING EARLY TO ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN ON THE WARMER END OF WHAT OUR FORECASTING TOOLS SHOW US.
RAISED HOURLY AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
REGION PER LAV AND HOURLY OBS. SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOUTHERN
DELMARVA LOCATIONS HAVE A SHOT AT MID 50`S FOR HIGHS TODAY. WIND
SHIFT TO WESTERLY WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH IS STILL OCCURRING BUT MAY BE
LAGGING BY A HOUR OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE.

STILL EXPECTING A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY WITH THE DRY AIRMASS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE
MID-LEVELS TO RESULT IN A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TOOK THE GALE FLAG DOWN AND RAISED SCA FLAG FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE
FROPA AND FRIDAY. UPCOMING SHIFT CAN DECIDE ON FUTURE FLAGS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 201429
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

9:30 AM UPDATE: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ENTERING THE POCONOS
CURRENTLY AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT WE WILL SEE A INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS AND
SOME GUSTS, PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. STILL EXPECTING A
PRECIPITATION FREE DAY WITH THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE MID-LEVELS TO RESULT IN
A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD TODAY. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS: TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ PRIOR TO THE FROPA...AND INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLOWLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TOOK THE GALE FLAG DOWN AND RAISED SCA FLAG FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE
FROPA AND FRIDAY. UPCOMING SHIFT CAN DECIDE ON FUTURE FLAGS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201429
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

9:30 AM UPDATE: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ENTERING THE POCONOS
CURRENTLY AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT WE WILL SEE A INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS AND
SOME GUSTS, PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. STILL EXPECTING A
PRECIPITATION FREE DAY WITH THE DRY AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT IN THE MID-LEVELS TO RESULT IN
A MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD TODAY. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER WITH THIS
UPDATE.

PREVIOUS: TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ PRIOR TO THE FROPA...AND INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLOWLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TOOK THE GALE FLAG DOWN AND RAISED SCA FLAG FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE
FROPA AND FRIDAY. UPCOMING SHIFT CAN DECIDE ON FUTURE FLAGS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 201120
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
5 AM UPDATE TO ADD A CLIMATE SECTION REGARDING THE MIN AND LOW MAX
TEMPERATURE RECORDS THAT WERE SET YESTERDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY AND CAUSE A COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA. ONLY SOME CLOUDS...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ PRIOR TO THE FROPA...AND INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLOWLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TOOK THE GALE FLAG DOWN AND RAISED SCA FLAG FOR THE REST OF TODAY
AND INTO FRIDAY. NEAR GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AFTER THE
FROPA AND FRIDAY. UPCOMING SHIFT CAN DECIDE ON FUTURE FLAGS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RECORDS
WERE SET YESTERDAY, NOVEMBER 19TH, AT OUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE LIST BELOW SHOWS THE MIN TEMP RECORDS THAT WERE TIED OR BROKEN
YESTERDAY (11/19) MORNING.

LOCATION  YESTERDAY`S MIN TEMP    PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD (YEAR)
PHL       20                      20 (1936)
RDG       17                      18 (1936)
GED       19                      20 (1959)


NOW, THE LIST OF THE LOW MAX TEMP (I.E., COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES)
RECORDS THAT WERE TIED OR BROKEN YESTERDAY (11/19).

LOCATION  YESTERDAY`S MAX TEMP    PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD (YEAR)
ABE       30                      32 (1951)
ILG       33                      34 (1951)
ACY       35                      35 (1951)
MPO       35                      24 (1909/1951)
RDG       31                      34 (1903/1951)

NOTE: PHL WAS POISED TO ALSO BREAK THEIR DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD
YESTERDAY WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE OF ONLY 33F AND A
DAILY RECORD OF 35F SET BACK IN 1951. HOWEVER, A SOUTHERLY WIND LAST
NIGHT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TEMPERATURE INCREASE TO 36F SHORTLY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201006
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
506 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
5 AM UPDATE TO ADD A CLIMATE SECTION REGARDING THE MIN AND LOW MAX
TEMPERATURE RECORDS THAT WERE SET YESTERDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY AND CAUSE A COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA. ONLY SOME CLOUDS...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ PRIOR TO THE FROPA...AND INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLOWLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECWMF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE FLAG NOT REALLY WORKING OUT YET...GUSTS IN THE 30-32 KNOT
RANGE...HOWEVER MAKES IT TOO CLOSE TO DROP. WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP
FOR AWHILE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN PICKUP AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONT...SO MORE MARGINAL GALES/STRONG SCA CONDITIONS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. WE WILL HOLD THE GALE FLAG FOR THE OCEAN NOW AND KEEP THE
SCA FOR DEL BAY. AT 630AM WE WILL DECIDE WHAT TO DO WITH REGARDS TO
EXTENDING/CANCELING THE FLAGS FOR TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
SEVERAL MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RECORDS
WERE SET YESTERDAY, NOVEMBER 19TH, AT OUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE LIST BELOW SHOWS THE MIN TEMP RECORDS THAT WERE TIED OR BROKEN
YESTERDAY (11/19) MORNING.

LOCATION  YESTERDAY`S MIN TEMP    PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD (YEAR)
PHL       20                      20 (1936)
RDG       17                      18 (1936)
GED       19                      20 (1959)


NOW, THE LIST OF THE LOW MAX TEMP (I.E., COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES)
RECORDS THAT WERE TIED OR BROKEN YESTERDAY (11/19).

LOCATION  YESTERDAY`S MAX TEMP    PREVIOUS DAILY RECORD (YEAR)
ABE       30                      32 (1951)
ILG       33                      34 (1951)
ACY       35                      35 (1951)
MPO       35                      24 (1909/1951)
RDG       31                      34 (1903/1951)

NOTE: PHL WAS POISED TO ALSO BREAK THEIR DAILY LOW MAX TEMP RECORD
YESTERDAY WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURE OF ONLY 33F AND A
DAILY RECORD OF 35F SET BACK IN 1951. HOWEVER, A SOUTHERLY WIND LAST
NIGHT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TEMPERATURE INCREASE TO 36F SHORTLY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
CLIMATE...KLEIN







000
FXUS61 KPHI 200919
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
419 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY AND CAUSE A COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA. ONLY SOME CLOUDS...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ PRIOR TO THE FROPA...AND INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLOWLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECWMF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE FLAG NOT REALLY WORKING OUT YET...GUSTS IN THE 30-32 KNOT
RANGE...HOWEVER MAKES IT TOO CLOSE TO DROP. WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP
FOR AWHILE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN PICKUP AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONT...SO MORE MARGINAL GALES/STRONG SCA CONDITIONS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. WE WILL HOLD THE GALE FLAG FOR THE OCEAN NOW AND KEEP THE
SCA FOR DEL BAY. AT 630AM WE WILL DECIDE WHAT TO DO WITH REGARDS TO
EXTENDING/CANCELING THE FLAGS FOR TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 200919
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
419 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TODAY AND CAUSE A COLD
FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA. ONLY SOME CLOUDS...NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 40S ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SRN NJ PRIOR TO THE FROPA...AND INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SLOWLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND COLD NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE IN FROM THE WEST...AND A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOMEWHAT GUSTY THIS EVENING AND THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT COLD STRETCH WILL MOVE
DOWNSTREAM OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
EASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY, RESULTING
IN THE THIRD WINTER-LIKE DAY THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 30S. FORECAST 925 MB TEMPS ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN WITH THE RECENT
COLD SHOT ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MID 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (5-10F COLDER IN THE MOUNTAINS). THE
FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER VEERS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD SHIFT ANY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS FROM LAKE ERIE FARTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE POCONOS. ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE
PROSPECTS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW UNLIKELY.

THE SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT THAN
IN PAST NIGHTS WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC.
FAVORED THE COLDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS IN THIS SITUATION.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS IN THE RURAL AREAS
AND LOW 20S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND WHILE A RIDGE
BUILDS ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD AIR WILL RETREAT AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DRAWS WARMER AIR UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
HIGHS IN THE 30S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND 40S IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE OVERRUNNING PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST
NJ/NORTHEAST PA WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS HAPPENING IS VERY HIGH.

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL INCLUDE DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. RAIN
IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
INCREASED POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE 00Z
GFS/ECWMF/CMC IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP. WE STILL MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BUT POPS WERE LOWERED AS THE DRY SLOT
AHEAD OF THE UPSTREAM LOW ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. MONDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE HIGHS WELL INTO
THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME EITHER
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL TO OUR WEST AND
THE FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE
CORE OF THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD NOT REACH US BY
MIDWEEK. THEREFORE, TEMPS ARE TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE
IS SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS...WHICH ARE EITHER VRB OR MOSTLY S/SW OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WRLY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS UP TO
20 KTS POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CL SKIES AND LIGHT WRLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KT. VFR EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SW WINDS DEVELOP. VFR
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE FLAG NOT REALLY WORKING OUT YET...GUSTS IN THE 30-32 KNOT
RANGE...HOWEVER MAKES IT TOO CLOSE TO DROP. WINDS WILL PROBABLY DROP
FOR AWHILE EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN PICKUP AGAIN AFTER THE
FRONT...SO MORE MARGINAL GALES/STRONG SCA CONDITIONS TODAY AND INTO
TONIGHT. WE WILL HOLD THE GALE FLAG FOR THE OCEAN NOW AND KEEP THE
SCA FOR DEL BAY. AT 630AM WE WILL DECIDE WHAT TO DO WITH REGARDS TO
EXTENDING/CANCELING THE FLAGS FOR TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING BUT WINDS
RELAX A BIT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED
FOR A GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE
DEEP MIXING PROFILES OVER THE OCEAN.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE NEAR THRESHOLD FOR A PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A STRONG SOUTHERLY JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A WARM AIRMASS THAT IS MOVING IN, WHICH DOES NOT PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP. CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SCA WINDS AND SEAS FOR
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA








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