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000
FXUS61 KPHI 281140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
640 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS PASSING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FEATURE WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA.

CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF NEW SNOW IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN
THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. OTHERWISE, WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY FOR TODAY AS DRY AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. HIGH
CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS THE
SHORT WAVE MOVES FARTHER TO OUR EAST. WE ARE FORECASTING WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND IN SOUTHERN
DELAWARE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. WARM
ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER OUR REGION AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES OFF THE COAST. WE ARE ANTICIPATING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP IN THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT AND WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POKE
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. ONLY A VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR FORECAST
AREA BEING IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FAIRLY GOOD
RADIATING CONDITIONS MAY BE PRESENT DURING THE EVENING AND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE TEENS IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND INTO THE 20S ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH NO BIG STORMS ON THE HORIZON
AND TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. THE FLOW ALOFT
IS MAINLY ZONAL OVR THE NRN US WITH A COUPLE OF SHRTWV TROFS MOVG
THROUGH ON MON AND AGAIN AROUND WED/THU. THE LATTER ONE IS FCST TO
DIG A LITTLER DEEPER OVER THE ERN US AND HAS A BETTER CHC TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP. THE BEST ASSOCD FORCING FOR UVV REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH AND MOISTURE SEEMS RATHER LIMITED.

FOR SATURDAY...THE CURRENT COLD AIR MASS WILL BE LIFTING AWAY TO
THE NE AND RESULTING WAA WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING...MAINLY N OF PHL. AS HIGH PRES MOVES
OFF THE COAST...WINDS BECOME SWLY AND CONTINUE THRU SUN AND MON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. MAX TEMPS ON
SUN/MON SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FROPA WOULD BE SOMETIME AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. THE FCST HAS CHC
POPS FOR MON/MON NIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT.

HIGH PRES MOVES BY RATHER QUICKLY TO THE NORTH ON TUE...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ON WED. THIS ONE SEEMS TO HAVE A
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE CONNECTION AND POPS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR WED THAN MON. HWVR THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING FOR THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AROUND KRDG AND KABE WHERE CONDITIONS MAY LOWER BRIEFLY
INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS FORECAST FOR THE
EARLY MORNING. THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, BECOMING NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR
CONDS BUT TEMPORARILY LOWER IN PRECIPITATION. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH NORTH WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS PASSING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE WEST NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE IN ITS WAKE AND
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 OR 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON OUR COASTAL
WATERS, INCLUDING ON DELAWARE BAY, FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS A
RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
FOR TONIGHT AND WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OVER THE WATERS.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON
OUR DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED
BASED ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN
UNMITIGATED BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION
PATTERN (EPO) TOOK HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE
WINTER. WHILE THE COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER
TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH.
IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME (OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES)
THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER
COMBINATION OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE
TWO PREVIOUS AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE
AND A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE
MAJOR SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK
EL NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF
SIX INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE
MOST COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY,
BUT THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW
COVERAGE IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER,
EVEN FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER
1976 FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH
SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64
PERCENT OF THE ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN
THE CURRENT AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING
EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND
DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS
LIKE 2013-14 SKEW UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE. SINCE 1967 (THE
START OF THE SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN
STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3 WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE
STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS
ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING
THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS
HAS AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE
EASTERLY PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC
WINDS OVER THE TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE
HAVE HAD MORE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN
SPLITS AND DISPLACES EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR
THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD
BE THE SO CALLED BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A
HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE.
SINCE 1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE
AVERAGED A NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK
ORDILLE POINTED US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION
SPRING-SUMMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF
THE NAO FOR THE ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE
OF WINTERS (HERE COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED
NEGATIVE (HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES
SINCE 1900) DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS
HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND
20 INCHES OF SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF
ALL WINTERS SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN
PHILADELPHIA WHEN THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE
GREATEST POINT OF FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN
FOLLOWED BY WARMER WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY
POSITIVE IN THE AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD,
HALF OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE
OF THE PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER.
THIS NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER
OCCURRENCE AND A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN
2012 OCTOBER WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO
WINTERS, WE ARE EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL
NEGATIVE. WHILE THE PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD
LOOKS DIFFERENT AS POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
FARTHER EAST THAN THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED
ON WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT
NORMAL NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK
AND ENSO POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S)
DURING THE WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT
WAS A WEAK EL NINO AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS
PAST PERFORMANCE MAY NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND
NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF
IT BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE
OF IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE HAD A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU WILL
HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE BEYOND
YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO
CLIMATE...GIGI
EQUIPMENT...STAFF







000
FXUS61 KPHI 281140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
640 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS PASSING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FEATURE WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA.

CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL LINGER IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST
FLOW. A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF NEW SNOW IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN
THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. OTHERWISE, WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY
SUNNY SKY FOR TODAY AS DRY AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. HIGH
CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS THE
SHORT WAVE MOVES FARTHER TO OUR EAST. WE ARE FORECASTING WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND IN SOUTHERN
DELAWARE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. WARM
ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER OUR REGION AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES OFF THE COAST. WE ARE ANTICIPATING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP IN THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT AND WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POKE
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. ONLY A VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR FORECAST
AREA BEING IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FAIRLY GOOD
RADIATING CONDITIONS MAY BE PRESENT DURING THE EVENING AND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE TEENS IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND INTO THE 20S ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH NO BIG STORMS ON THE HORIZON
AND TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. THE FLOW ALOFT
IS MAINLY ZONAL OVR THE NRN US WITH A COUPLE OF SHRTWV TROFS MOVG
THROUGH ON MON AND AGAIN AROUND WED/THU. THE LATTER ONE IS FCST TO
DIG A LITTLER DEEPER OVER THE ERN US AND HAS A BETTER CHC TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP. THE BEST ASSOCD FORCING FOR UVV REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH AND MOISTURE SEEMS RATHER LIMITED.

FOR SATURDAY...THE CURRENT COLD AIR MASS WILL BE LIFTING AWAY TO
THE NE AND RESULTING WAA WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING...MAINLY N OF PHL. AS HIGH PRES MOVES
OFF THE COAST...WINDS BECOME SWLY AND CONTINUE THRU SUN AND MON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. MAX TEMPS ON
SUN/MON SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FROPA WOULD BE SOMETIME AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. THE FCST HAS CHC
POPS FOR MON/MON NIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT.

HIGH PRES MOVES BY RATHER QUICKLY TO THE NORTH ON TUE...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ON WED. THIS ONE SEEMS TO HAVE A
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE CONNECTION AND POPS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR WED THAN MON. HWVR THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING FOR THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AROUND KRDG AND KABE WHERE CONDITIONS MAY LOWER BRIEFLY
INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS FORECAST FOR THE
EARLY MORNING. THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, BECOMING NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR
CONDS BUT TEMPORARILY LOWER IN PRECIPITATION. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH NORTH WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS PASSING OVERHEAD EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE WEST NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE IN ITS WAKE AND
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 OR 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON OUR COASTAL
WATERS, INCLUDING ON DELAWARE BAY, FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS A
RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR REGION FROM THE WEST
FOR TONIGHT AND WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OVER THE WATERS.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON
OUR DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED
BASED ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN
UNMITIGATED BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION
PATTERN (EPO) TOOK HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE
WINTER. WHILE THE COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER
TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH.
IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME (OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES)
THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER
COMBINATION OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE
TWO PREVIOUS AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE
AND A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE
MAJOR SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK
EL NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF
SIX INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE
MOST COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY,
BUT THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW
COVERAGE IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER,
EVEN FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER
1976 FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH
SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64
PERCENT OF THE ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN
THE CURRENT AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING
EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND
DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS
LIKE 2013-14 SKEW UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE. SINCE 1967 (THE
START OF THE SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN
STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3 WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE
STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS
ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING
THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS
HAS AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE
EASTERLY PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC
WINDS OVER THE TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE
HAVE HAD MORE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN
SPLITS AND DISPLACES EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR
THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD
BE THE SO CALLED BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A
HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE.
SINCE 1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE
AVERAGED A NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK
ORDILLE POINTED US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION
SPRING-SUMMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF
THE NAO FOR THE ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE
OF WINTERS (HERE COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED
NEGATIVE (HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES
SINCE 1900) DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS
HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND
20 INCHES OF SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF
ALL WINTERS SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN
PHILADELPHIA WHEN THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE
GREATEST POINT OF FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN
FOLLOWED BY WARMER WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY
POSITIVE IN THE AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD,
HALF OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE
OF THE PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER.
THIS NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER
OCCURRENCE AND A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN
2012 OCTOBER WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO
WINTERS, WE ARE EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL
NEGATIVE. WHILE THE PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD
LOOKS DIFFERENT AS POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
FARTHER EAST THAN THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED
ON WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT
NORMAL NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK
AND ENSO POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S)
DURING THE WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT
WAS A WEAK EL NINO AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS
PAST PERFORMANCE MAY NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND
NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF
IT BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE
OF IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE HAD A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU WILL
HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE BEYOND
YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO
CLIMATE...GIGI
EQUIPMENT...STAFF








000
FXUS61 KPHI 280941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WAS APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AT 300 AM. THERE
WAS A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SNOW FLURRIES AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. IT
EXTENDED FROM THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY DOWN TO THE
UPPER DELMARVA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THERE
WERE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH THAT WERE
LEAVING A LIGHT ACCUMULATION.

THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES SHOULD WORK
THEIR WAY OFF THE COAST BY THAT TIME. WE ARE ANTICIPATING CLEARING
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH CLOUDS MAY
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND MID MORNING AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES FARTHER TO OUR EAST. WE ARE FORECASTING WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND IN SOUTHERN
DELAWARE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. WARM
ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER OUR REGION AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES OFF THE COAST. WE ARE ANTICIPATING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP IN THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT AND WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POKE
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. ONLY A VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR FORECAST
AREA BEING IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FAIRLY GOOD
RADIATING CONDITIONS MAY BE PRESENT DURING THE EVENING AND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE TEENS IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND INTO THE 20S ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH NO BIG STORMS ON THE HORIZON
AND TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. THE FLOW ALOFT
IS MAINLY ZONAL OVR THE NRN US WITH A COUPLE OF SHRTWV TROFS MOVG
THROUGH ON MON AND AGAIN AROUND WED/THU. THE LATTER ONE IS FCST TO
DIG A LITTLER DEEPER OVER THE ERN US AND HAS A BETTER CHC TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP. THE BEST ASSOCD FORCING FOR UVV
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND MOISTURE SEEMS RATHER LIMITED.

FOR SATURDAY...THE CURRENT COLD AIR MASS WILL BE LIFTING AWAY TO
THE NE AND RESULTING WAA WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING...MAINLY N OF PHL. AS HIGH PRES MOVES
OFF THE COAST...WINDS BECOME SWLY AND CONTINUE THRU SUN AND MON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. MAX TEMPS ON
SUN/MON SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FROPA WOULD BE SOMETIME AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. THE FCST HAS CHC
POPS FOR MON/MON NIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT.

HIGH PRES MOVES BY RATHER QUICKLY TO THE NORTH ON TUE...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ON WED. THIS ONE SEEMS TO HAVE A
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE CONNECTION AND POPS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR WED THAN MON. HWVR THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING FOR THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AROUND KRDG AND KABE WHERE CONDITIONS MAY LOWER BRIEFLY
INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
MORNING. THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR
REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, BECOMING NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR CONDS
BUT TEMPORARILY LOWER IN PRECIPITATION. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH NORTH WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
WEST NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE IN ITS WAKE AND WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 OR 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS,
INCLUDING ON DELAWARE BAY, FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT, A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR REGION FROM THE WEST FOR
TONIGHT AND WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OVER THE WATERS.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.


&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON
OUR DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED
BASED ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN
UNMITIGATED BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION
PATTERN (EPO) TOOK HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE
WINTER. WHILE THE COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER
TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH.
IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME (OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES)
THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER
COMBINATION OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE
TWO PREVIOUS AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE
AND A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE
MAJOR SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK
EL NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF
SIX INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE
MOST COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY,
BUT THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW
COVERAGE IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER,
EVEN FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER
1976 FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH
SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64
PERCENT OF THE ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN
THE CURRENT AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING
EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND
DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS
LIKE 2013-14 SKEW UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE. SINCE 1967 (THE
START OF THE SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN
STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3 WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE
STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS
ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING
THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS
HAS AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE
EASTERLY PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC
WINDS OVER THE TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE
HAVE HAD MORE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN
SPLITS AND DISPLACES EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR
THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD
BE THE SO CALLED BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A
HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE.
SINCE 1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE
AVERAGED A NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK
ORDILLE POINTED US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION
SPRING-SUMMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF
THE NAO FOR THE ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE
OF WINTERS (HERE COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED
NEGATIVE (HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES
SINCE 1900) DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS
HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND
20 INCHES OF SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF
ALL WINTERS SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN
PHILADELPHIA WHEN THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE
GREATEST POINT OF FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN
FOLLOWED BY WARMER WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY
POSITIVE IN THE AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD,
HALF OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE
OF THE PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER.
THIS NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER
OCCURRENCE AND A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN
2012 OCTOBER WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO
WINTERS, WE ARE EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL
NEGATIVE. WHILE THE PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD
LOOKS DIFFERENT AS POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
FARTHER EAST THAN THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED
ON WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT
NORMAL NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK
AND ENSO POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S)
DURING THE WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT
WAS A WEAK EL NINO AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS
PAST PERFORMANCE MAY NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND
NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF
IT BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE
OF IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE HAD A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU WILL
HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE BEYOND
YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 280941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WAS APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AT 300 AM. THERE
WAS A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SNOW FLURRIES AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. IT
EXTENDED FROM THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY DOWN TO THE
UPPER DELMARVA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THERE
WERE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH THAT WERE
LEAVING A LIGHT ACCUMULATION.

THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY
DAYBREAK. MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES SHOULD WORK
THEIR WAY OFF THE COAST BY THAT TIME. WE ARE ANTICIPATING CLEARING
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. HIGH CLOUDS MAY
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND MID MORNING AS
THE SHORT WAVE MOVES FARTHER TO OUR EAST. WE ARE FORECASTING WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND IN SOUTHERN
DELAWARE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD THIS EVENING. WARM
ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN OVER OUR REGION AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES OFF THE COAST. WE ARE ANTICIPATING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP IN THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER
GRADUALLY LATE TONIGHT AND WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POKE
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. ONLY A VERY LIGHT
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN OUR FORECAST
AREA BEING IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. FAIRLY GOOD
RADIATING CONDITIONS MAY BE PRESENT DURING THE EVENING AND
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE TEENS IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND INTO THE 20S ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH NO BIG STORMS ON THE HORIZON
AND TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. THE FLOW ALOFT
IS MAINLY ZONAL OVR THE NRN US WITH A COUPLE OF SHRTWV TROFS MOVG
THROUGH ON MON AND AGAIN AROUND WED/THU. THE LATTER ONE IS FCST TO
DIG A LITTLER DEEPER OVER THE ERN US AND HAS A BETTER CHC TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP. THE BEST ASSOCD FORCING FOR UVV
REMAINS TO OUR NORTH AND MOISTURE SEEMS RATHER LIMITED.

FOR SATURDAY...THE CURRENT COLD AIR MASS WILL BE LIFTING AWAY TO
THE NE AND RESULTING WAA WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING...MAINLY N OF PHL. AS HIGH PRES MOVES
OFF THE COAST...WINDS BECOME SWLY AND CONTINUE THRU SUN AND MON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. MAX TEMPS ON
SUN/MON SHOULD BE A FEW DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FROPA WOULD BE SOMETIME AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY. THE FCST HAS CHC
POPS FOR MON/MON NIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN CAA BEHIND
THE FRONT.

HIGH PRES MOVES BY RATHER QUICKLY TO THE NORTH ON TUE...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ON WED. THIS ONE SEEMS TO HAVE A
SLIGHTLY BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE CONNECTION AND POPS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR WED THAN MON. HWVR THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR OUT. ATTM IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM
ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EARLY
MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING FOR THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AROUND KRDG AND KABE WHERE CONDITIONS MAY LOWER BRIEFLY
INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
MORNING. THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR
REGION.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, BECOMING NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR CONDS
BUT TEMPORARILY LOWER IN PRECIPITATION. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH NORTH WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
WEST NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE IN ITS WAKE AND WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 OR 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS,
INCLUDING ON DELAWARE BAY, FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS A RESULT, A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER OUR REGION FROM THE WEST FOR
TONIGHT AND WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OVER THE WATERS.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.


&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON
OUR DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED
BASED ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN
UNMITIGATED BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION
PATTERN (EPO) TOOK HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE
WINTER. WHILE THE COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER
TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH.
IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME (OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES)
THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER
COMBINATION OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE
TWO PREVIOUS AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE
AND A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE
MAJOR SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK
EL NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF
SIX INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE
MOST COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY,
BUT THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW
COVERAGE IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER,
EVEN FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER
1976 FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH
SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64
PERCENT OF THE ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN
THE CURRENT AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING
EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND
DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS
LIKE 2013-14 SKEW UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE. SINCE 1967 (THE
START OF THE SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN
STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3 WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE
STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS
ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING
THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS
HAS AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE
EASTERLY PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC
WINDS OVER THE TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE
HAVE HAD MORE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN
SPLITS AND DISPLACES EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR
THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD
BE THE SO CALLED BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A
HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE.
SINCE 1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE
AVERAGED A NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK
ORDILLE POINTED US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION
SPRING-SUMMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF
THE NAO FOR THE ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE
OF WINTERS (HERE COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED
NEGATIVE (HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES
SINCE 1900) DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS
HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND
20 INCHES OF SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF
ALL WINTERS SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN
PHILADELPHIA WHEN THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE
GREATEST POINT OF FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN
FOLLOWED BY WARMER WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY
POSITIVE IN THE AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD,
HALF OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE
OF THE PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER.
THIS NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER
OCCURRENCE AND A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN
2012 OCTOBER WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO
WINTERS, WE ARE EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL
NEGATIVE. WHILE THE PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD
LOOKS DIFFERENT AS POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
FARTHER EAST THAN THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED
ON WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT
NORMAL NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK
AND ENSO POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S)
DURING THE WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT
WAS A WEAK EL NINO AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS
PAST PERFORMANCE MAY NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND
NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF
IT BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE
OF IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE HAD A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU WILL
HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE BEYOND
YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280555
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1255 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WAS BEGINNING TO PASS OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW TOWARD DAYBREAK. WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF THESE
FEATURES. ALSO, SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO PASS
ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH IS FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR BLACK FRIDAY. A
CAA REGIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS
WELL. SO DESPITE SUNSHINE TOMORROW VS CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, MAX
TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE
COAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-25 MPH) IN THE MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WINDS RELAX
A BIT LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE
THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE. ANYTHING
THAT WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST, THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST, AND
THE ECMWF IN BETWEEN. ALSO THERE AREA DIFFERENCES WITH QPF
AMOUNTS, SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE
DRIER AIR BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO WE MAKE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY, THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME
CLEARING FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. INCREASING AND LOWERING
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE
WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH
DAY; SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR
UNLESS PRECIPITATION OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NEW SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR THE DE BAY AND
MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES TO COVER THE EXPECTED NORTHWEST PRESSURE
SURGE. MIXING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH EVEN COLDER AIR MOVING ABOVE
THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE SCA IS THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET. THE SCA FOR
THIS NORTHERN MOST ZONE IS ONLY IN EFFECT FRIDAY SINCE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TONIGHT AND THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON
OUR DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED
BASED ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN
UNMITIGATED BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION
PATTERN (EPO) TOOK HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE
WINTER. WHILE THE COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER
TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH.
IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME (OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES)
THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER
COMBINATION OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE
TWO PREVIOUS AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE
AND A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE
MAJOR SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK
EL NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF
SIX INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE
MOST COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY,
BUT THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW
COVERAGE IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER,
EVEN FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER
1976 FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH
SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64
PERCENT OF THE ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN
THE CURRENT AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING
EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND
DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS
LIKE 2013-14 SKEW UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE. SINCE 1967 (THE
START OF THE SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN
STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3 WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE
STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS
ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING
THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS
HAS AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE
EASTERLY PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC
WINDS OVER THE TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE
HAVE HAD MORE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN
SPLITS AND DISPLACES EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR
THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD
BE THE SO CALLED BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A
HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE.
SINCE 1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE
AVERAGED A NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK
ORDILLE POINTED US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION
SPRING-SUMMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF
THE NAO FOR THE ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE
OF WINTERS (HERE COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED
NEGATIVE (HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES
SINCE 1900) DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS
HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND
20 INCHES OF SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF
ALL WINTERS SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN
PHILADELPHIA WHEN THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE
GREATEST POINT OF FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN
FOLLOWED BY WARMER WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY
POSITIVE IN THE AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD,
HALF OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE
OF THE PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER.
THIS NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER
OCCURRENCE AND A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN
2012 OCTOBER WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO
WINTERS, WE ARE EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL
NEGATIVE. WHILE THE PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD
LOOKS DIFFERENT AS POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
FARTHER EAST THAN THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED
ON WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT
NORMAL NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK
AND ENSO POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S)
DURING THE WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT
WAS A WEAK EL NINO AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS
PAST PERFORMANCE MAY NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND
NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF
IT BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE
OF IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE IS HAVING A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU
WILL HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE
BEYOND YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GIGI
EQUIPMENT...STAFF







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280555
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1255 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY
RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM AROUND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WAS BEGINNING TO PASS OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW TOWARD DAYBREAK. WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF THESE
FEATURES. ALSO, SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO PASS
ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH IS FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR BLACK FRIDAY. A
CAA REGIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS
WELL. SO DESPITE SUNSHINE TOMORROW VS CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, MAX
TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE
COAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-25 MPH) IN THE MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WINDS RELAX
A BIT LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE
THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE. ANYTHING
THAT WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST, THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST, AND
THE ECMWF IN BETWEEN. ALSO THERE AREA DIFFERENCES WITH QPF
AMOUNTS, SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE
DRIER AIR BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO WE MAKE THE
FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY, THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WE ARE
ANTICIPATING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SOME
CLEARING FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. INCREASING AND LOWERING
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE
WIND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH
DAY; SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR
UNLESS PRECIPITATION OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NEW SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR THE DE BAY AND
MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES TO COVER THE EXPECTED NORTHWEST PRESSURE
SURGE. MIXING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH EVEN COLDER AIR MOVING ABOVE
THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE SCA IS THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET. THE SCA FOR
THIS NORTHERN MOST ZONE IS ONLY IN EFFECT FRIDAY SINCE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TONIGHT AND THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON
OUR DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED
BASED ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN
UNMITIGATED BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION
PATTERN (EPO) TOOK HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE
WINTER. WHILE THE COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER
TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH.
IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME (OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES)
THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER
COMBINATION OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE
TWO PREVIOUS AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE
AND A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE
MAJOR SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK
EL NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF
SIX INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE
MOST COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY,
BUT THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW
COVERAGE IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER,
EVEN FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER
1976 FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH
SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64
PERCENT OF THE ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN
THE CURRENT AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING
EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND
DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS
LIKE 2013-14 SKEW UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE. SINCE 1967 (THE
START OF THE SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN
STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3 WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE
STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS
ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING
THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS
HAS AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE
EASTERLY PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC
WINDS OVER THE TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE
HAVE HAD MORE SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN
SPLITS AND DISPLACES EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR
THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD
BE THE SO CALLED BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A
HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE.
SINCE 1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE
ARCTIC OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE
AVERAGED A NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK
ORDILLE POINTED US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION
SPRING-SUMMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF
THE NAO FOR THE ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE
OF WINTERS (HERE COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR
THIS UPCOMING WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED
NEGATIVE (HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES
SINCE 1900) DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS
HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND
20 INCHES OF SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF
ALL WINTERS SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN
PHILADELPHIA WHEN THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE
GREATEST POINT OF FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN
FOLLOWED BY WARMER WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY
POSITIVE IN THE AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD,
HALF OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE
OF THE PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER.
THIS NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER
OCCURRENCE AND A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE
THE STRONGEST CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN
2012 OCTOBER WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO
WINTERS, WE ARE EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL
NEGATIVE. WHILE THE PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD
LOOKS DIFFERENT AS POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE
FARTHER EAST THAN THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED
ON WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT
NORMAL NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK
AND ENSO POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S)
DURING THE WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT
WAS A WEAK EL NINO AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS
PAST PERFORMANCE MAY NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND
NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF
IT BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE
OF IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE IS HAVING A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU
WILL HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE
BEYOND YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GIGI
EQUIPMENT...STAFF








000
FXUS61 KPHI 280223
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
923 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES WILL BE PASSING THROUGH OUR CWA OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE MEASURABLE PCPN REMAINING WEST OF
US, THE PRESENT ECHOES WEST OF OUR CWA HAVE MORE COVERAGE THAN
THEY ARE PREDICTING. SO WE ADDED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW
FLURRIES MAKING INTO MORE OF THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, THERE WERE NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE. TEMPERATURES ARE GETTING AS LITTLE BALKY IN SNOW
COVERED AREAS AS WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT. GIVEN THE MODELS ARE
TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT AND BRINGING MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, ONLY A
MODEST DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE.

THE COASTAL LOW THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS POSITIONED BACK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

MID AND HI CLOUDS WILL THEN SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR 20F IN THE POCONOS TO
NEAR 30F IN THE DELMARVA, SOUTHERN NJ COAST AND IN CENTER CITY
PHILLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR BLACK FRIDAY. A
CAA REGIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS
WELL. SO DESPITE SUNSHINE TOMORROW VS CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE COAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-25 MPH) IN THE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WINDS RELAX A BIT
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THEY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE. ANYTHING THAT
WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST, THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST, AND THE ECMWF IN
BETWEEN. ALSO THERE AREA DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS, SO WE WILL
KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRIER AIR
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO WE MAKE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR TUESDAY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY, THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS WERE ISSUED VFR.

FOR TONIGHT SOME PATCHY VFR CLOUDS NEAR THE BORDER OF LOW AND MID
CLOUD LEVEL PREDICTED AS TWO DISTURBANCES TO OUR WEST PASS
THROUGH. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF A CIG ARE AT WESTERN AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

ON FRIDAY, NO CIGS ARE PREDICTED, POSSIBLY A SCATTERED DECK OF
SOME RATHER FLAT LOOKING STRATOCU CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FRESHEN WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND PEAK
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
SPEEDS AND GUSTS THEREAFTER.

START OF FRIDAY EVENING, A MUCH LIGHTER NORTHWEST WIND WITH AN
ADVANCING MID LEVEL VFR CIG PREDICTED.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR UNLESS
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NEW SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR THE DE BAY AND
MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES TO COVER THE EXPECTED NORTHWEST PRESSURE
SURGE. MIXING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH EVEN COLDER AIR MOVING ABOVE
THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE SCA IS THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET. THE SCA FOR
THIS NORTHERN MOST ZONE IS ONLY IN EFFECT FRIDAY SINCE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TONIGHT AND THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED BASED
ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN UNMITIGATED
BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION PATTERN (EPO) TOOK
HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE WINTER. WHILE THE
COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT
NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH. IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME
(OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES) THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A
WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER COMBINATION
OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE TWO PREVIOUS
AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE AND
A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE MAJOR
SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK EL
NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF SIX
INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE MOST
COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY, BUT
THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW COVERAGE
IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER, EVEN
FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER 1976
FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH SEPTEMBER
AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64 PERCENT OF THE
ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN THE CURRENT
AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING EITHER ABOVE
OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL
IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS LIKE 2013-14 SKEW
UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE.  SINCE 1967 (THE START OF THE
SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3
WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR
SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING THE
MONTH OF OCTOBER.  WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS HAS
AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE EASTERLY
PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC WINDS OVER THE
TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE HAVE HAD MORE
SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN SPLITS AND DISPLACES
EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS
NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD BE THE SO CALLED
BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS
THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE. SINCE
1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A
NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK ORDILLE POINTED
US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION SPRING-SUMMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF THE NAO FOR THE
ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE OF WINTERS (HERE
COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR THIS UPCOMING
WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED NEGATIVE
(HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES SINCE 1900)
DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED
COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND 20 INCHES OF
SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF ALL WINTERS
SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN PHILADELPHIA WHEN
THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE GREATEST POINT OF
FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY POSITIVE IN THE
AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD, HALF
OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE OF THE
PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER. THIS
NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER OCCURRENCE AND
A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN 2012 OCTOBER
WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WINTERS, WE ARE
EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL NEGATIVE. WHILE THE
PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD LOOKS DIFFERENT AS
POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FARTHER EAST THAN
THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED ON
WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT NORMAL
NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK AND ENSO
POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S) DURING THE
WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT WAS A WEAK EL NINO
AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS PAST PERFORMANCE MAY
NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF IT
BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE IS HAVING A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU
WILL HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE BEYOND
YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GIGI
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280223
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
923 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES WILL BE PASSING THROUGH OUR CWA OVERNIGHT.
WHILE THE MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE MEASURABLE PCPN REMAINING WEST OF
US, THE PRESENT ECHOES WEST OF OUR CWA HAVE MORE COVERAGE THAN
THEY ARE PREDICTING. SO WE ADDED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW
FLURRIES MAKING INTO MORE OF THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, THERE WERE NO OTHER
CHANGES MADE. TEMPERATURES ARE GETTING AS LITTLE BALKY IN SNOW
COVERED AREAS AS WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT. GIVEN THE MODELS ARE
TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT AND BRINGING MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, ONLY A
MODEST DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE.

THE COASTAL LOW THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS POSITIONED BACK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

MID AND HI CLOUDS WILL THEN SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR 20F IN THE POCONOS TO
NEAR 30F IN THE DELMARVA, SOUTHERN NJ COAST AND IN CENTER CITY
PHILLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR BLACK FRIDAY. A
CAA REGIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS
WELL. SO DESPITE SUNSHINE TOMORROW VS CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE COAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-25 MPH) IN THE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WINDS RELAX A BIT
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THEY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE. ANYTHING THAT
WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST, THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST, AND THE ECMWF IN
BETWEEN. ALSO THERE AREA DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS, SO WE WILL
KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRIER AIR
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO WE MAKE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR TUESDAY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY, THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS WERE ISSUED VFR.

FOR TONIGHT SOME PATCHY VFR CLOUDS NEAR THE BORDER OF LOW AND MID
CLOUD LEVEL PREDICTED AS TWO DISTURBANCES TO OUR WEST PASS
THROUGH. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF A CIG ARE AT WESTERN AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

ON FRIDAY, NO CIGS ARE PREDICTED, POSSIBLY A SCATTERED DECK OF
SOME RATHER FLAT LOOKING STRATOCU CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FRESHEN WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND PEAK
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
SPEEDS AND GUSTS THEREAFTER.

START OF FRIDAY EVENING, A MUCH LIGHTER NORTHWEST WIND WITH AN
ADVANCING MID LEVEL VFR CIG PREDICTED.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR UNLESS
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A NEW SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR THE DE BAY AND
MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES TO COVER THE EXPECTED NORTHWEST PRESSURE
SURGE. MIXING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH EVEN COLDER AIR MOVING ABOVE
THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE SCA IS THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET. THE SCA FOR
THIS NORTHERN MOST ZONE IS ONLY IN EFFECT FRIDAY SINCE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TONIGHT AND THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED BASED
ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN UNMITIGATED
BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION PATTERN (EPO) TOOK
HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE WINTER. WHILE THE
COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT
NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH. IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME
(OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES) THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A
WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER COMBINATION
OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE TWO PREVIOUS
AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE AND
A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE MAJOR
SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK EL
NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF SIX
INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE MOST
COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY, BUT
THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW COVERAGE
IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER, EVEN
FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER 1976
FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH SEPTEMBER
AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64 PERCENT OF THE
ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN THE CURRENT
AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING EITHER ABOVE
OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL
IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS LIKE 2013-14 SKEW
UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE.  SINCE 1967 (THE START OF THE
SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3
WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR
SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING THE
MONTH OF OCTOBER.  WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS HAS
AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE EASTERLY
PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC WINDS OVER THE
TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE HAVE HAD MORE
SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN SPLITS AND DISPLACES
EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS
NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD BE THE SO CALLED
BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS
THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE. SINCE
1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A
NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK ORDILLE POINTED
US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION SPRING-SUMMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF THE NAO FOR THE
ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE OF WINTERS (HERE
COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR THIS UPCOMING
WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED NEGATIVE
(HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES SINCE 1900)
DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED
COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND 20 INCHES OF
SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF ALL WINTERS
SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN PHILADELPHIA WHEN
THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE GREATEST POINT OF
FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY POSITIVE IN THE
AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD, HALF
OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE OF THE
PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER. THIS
NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER OCCURRENCE AND
A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN 2012 OCTOBER
WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WINTERS, WE ARE
EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL NEGATIVE. WHILE THE
PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD LOOKS DIFFERENT AS
POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FARTHER EAST THAN
THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED ON
WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT NORMAL
NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK AND ENSO
POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S) DURING THE
WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT WAS A WEAK EL NINO
AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS PAST PERFORMANCE MAY
NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF IT
BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE IS HAVING A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU
WILL HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE BEYOND
YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GIGI
EQUIPMENT...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 272326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WILL BE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE, MAINLY ADJUSTMENT TO
SKY GRIDS.

THE COASTAL LOW THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS POSITIONED BACK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT BROUGHT LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PA AND NW NJ THIS MORNING
HAS EXITED THE AREA AND IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING IN, YIELDING SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE CLEARING HAS BEEN
MOST PROMINENT. TEMPS WERE STUCK IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

STRATOCU SHOULD ERODE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING
AND AS DRIER AIR NEAR 925 MB ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. MID AND HI
CLOUDS WILL THEN SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR 20F IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 30F IN THE
DELMARVA, SOUTHERN NJ COAST AND IN CENTER CITY PHILLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR BLACK FRIDAY. A
CAA REGIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS
WELL. SO DESPITE SUNSHINE TOMORROW VS CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE COAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-25 MPH) IN THE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WINDS RELAX A BIT
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THEY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE. ANYTHING THAT
WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST, THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST, AND THE ECMWF IN
BETWEEN. ALSO THERE AREA DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS, SO WE WILL
KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRIER AIR
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO WE MAKE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR TUESDAY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY, THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS ARE VFR.

FOR TONIGHT SOME PATCHY VFR CLOUDS NEAR THE BORDER OF LOW AND MID
CLOUD LEVEL PREDICTED AS TWO DISTURBANCES TO OUR WEST PASS
THROUGH. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF A CIG ARE AT WESTERN AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

ON FRIDAY, NO CIGS ARE PREDICTED, POSSIBLY A SCATTERED DECK OF
SOME RATHER FLAT LOOKING STRATOCU CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FRESHEN WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND PEAK
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
SPEEDS AND GUSTS THEREAFTER.

START OF FRIDAY EVENING, A MUCH LIGHTER NORTHWEST WIND WITH AN
ADVANCING MID LEVEL VFR CIG PREDICTED.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR UNLESS
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTN HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. HOWEVER, A NEW SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR
THE DE BAY AND MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES TO COVER THE EXPECTED
NORTHWEST PRESSURE SURGE. MIXING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH EVEN COLDER
AIR MOVING ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THE SCA IS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET.
THE SCA FOR THIS NORTHERN MOST ZONE IS ONLY IN EFFECT FRIDAY SINCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TONIGHT AND THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED BASED
ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN UNMITIGATED
BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION PATTERN (EPO) TOOK
HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE WINTER. WHILE THE
COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT
NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH. IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME
(OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES) THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A
WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER COMBINATION
OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE TWO PREVIOUS
AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE AND
A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE MAJOR
SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK EL
NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF SIX
INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE MOST
COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY, BUT
THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW COVERAGE
IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER, EVEN
FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER 1976
FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH SEPTEMBER
AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64 PERCENT OF THE
ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN THE CURRENT
AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING EITHER ABOVE
OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL
IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS LIKE 2013-14 SKEW
UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE.  SINCE 1967 (THE START OF THE
SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3
WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR
SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING THE
MONTH OF OCTOBER.  WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS HAS
AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE EASTERLY
PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC WINDS OVER THE
TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE HAVE HAD MORE
SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN SPLITS AND DISPLACES
EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS
NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD BE THE SO CALLED
BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS
THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE. SINCE
1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A
NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK ORDILLE POINTED
US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION SPRING-SUMMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF THE NAO FOR THE
ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE OF WINTERS (HERE
COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR THIS UPCOMING
WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED NEGATIVE
(HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES SINCE 1900)
DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED
COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND 20 INCHES OF
SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF ALL WINTERS
SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN PHILADELPHIA WHEN
THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE GREATEST POINT OF
FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY POSITIVE IN THE
AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD, HALF
OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE OF THE
PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER. THIS
NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER OCCURRENCE AND
A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN 2012 OCTOBER
WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WINTERS, WE ARE
EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL NEGATIVE. WHILE THE
PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD LOOKS DIFFERENT AS
POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FARTHER EAST THAN
THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED ON
WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT NORMAL
NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK AND ENSO
POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S) DURING THE
WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT WAS A WEAK EL NINO
AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS PAST PERFORMANCE MAY
NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF IT
BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE IS HAVING A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU
WILL HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE BEYOND
YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GIGI
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 272326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WILL BE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE, MAINLY ADJUSTMENT TO
SKY GRIDS.

THE COASTAL LOW THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS POSITIONED BACK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT BROUGHT LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PA AND NW NJ THIS MORNING
HAS EXITED THE AREA AND IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING IN, YIELDING SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE CLEARING HAS BEEN
MOST PROMINENT. TEMPS WERE STUCK IN THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON.

STRATOCU SHOULD ERODE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING
AND AS DRIER AIR NEAR 925 MB ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. MID AND HI
CLOUDS WILL THEN SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR 20F IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 30F IN THE
DELMARVA, SOUTHERN NJ COAST AND IN CENTER CITY PHILLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR BLACK FRIDAY. A
CAA REGIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS
WELL. SO DESPITE SUNSHINE TOMORROW VS CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE COAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-25 MPH) IN THE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WINDS RELAX A BIT
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THEY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE. ANYTHING THAT
WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST, THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST, AND THE ECMWF IN
BETWEEN. ALSO THERE AREA DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS, SO WE WILL
KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRIER AIR
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO WE MAKE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR TUESDAY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY, THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

00Z TAFS ARE VFR.

FOR TONIGHT SOME PATCHY VFR CLOUDS NEAR THE BORDER OF LOW AND MID
CLOUD LEVEL PREDICTED AS TWO DISTURBANCES TO OUR WEST PASS
THROUGH. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF A CIG ARE AT WESTERN AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

ON FRIDAY, NO CIGS ARE PREDICTED, POSSIBLY A SCATTERED DECK OF
SOME RATHER FLAT LOOKING STRATOCU CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
FRESHEN WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AVERAGING 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND PEAK
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
FROM MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A SLOW DECREASE IN
SPEEDS AND GUSTS THEREAFTER.

START OF FRIDAY EVENING, A MUCH LIGHTER NORTHWEST WIND WITH AN
ADVANCING MID LEVEL VFR CIG PREDICTED.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR UNLESS
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTN HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. HOWEVER, A NEW SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR
THE DE BAY AND MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES TO COVER THE EXPECTED
NORTHWEST PRESSURE SURGE. MIXING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH EVEN COLDER
AIR MOVING ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THE SCA IS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET.
THE SCA FOR THIS NORTHERN MOST ZONE IS ONLY IN EFFECT FRIDAY SINCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TONIGHT AND THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED BASED
ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN UNMITIGATED
BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION PATTERN (EPO) TOOK
HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE WINTER. WHILE THE
COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT
NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH. IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME
(OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES) THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A
WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER COMBINATION
OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE TWO PREVIOUS
AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE AND
A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE MAJOR
SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK EL
NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF SIX
INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE MOST
COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY, BUT
THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW COVERAGE
IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER, EVEN
FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER 1976
FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH SEPTEMBER
AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64 PERCENT OF THE
ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN THE CURRENT
AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING EITHER ABOVE
OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL
IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS LIKE 2013-14 SKEW
UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE.  SINCE 1967 (THE START OF THE
SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3
WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR
SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING THE
MONTH OF OCTOBER.  WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS HAS
AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE EASTERLY
PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC WINDS OVER THE
TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE HAVE HAD MORE
SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN SPLITS AND DISPLACES
EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS
NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD BE THE SO CALLED
BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS
THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE. SINCE
1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A
NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK ORDILLE POINTED
US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION SPRING-SUMMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF THE NAO FOR THE
ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE OF WINTERS (HERE
COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR THIS UPCOMING
WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED NEGATIVE
(HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES SINCE 1900)
DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED
COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND 20 INCHES OF
SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF ALL WINTERS
SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN PHILADELPHIA WHEN
THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE GREATEST POINT OF
FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY POSITIVE IN THE
AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD, HALF
OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE OF THE
PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER. THIS
NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER OCCURRENCE AND
A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN 2012 OCTOBER
WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WINTERS, WE ARE
EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL NEGATIVE. WHILE THE
PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD LOOKS DIFFERENT AS
POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FARTHER EAST THAN
THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED ON
WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT NORMAL
NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK AND ENSO
POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S) DURING THE
WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT WAS A WEAK EL NINO
AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS PAST PERFORMANCE MAY
NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF IT
BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE IS HAVING A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU
WILL HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE BEYOND
YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GIGI
EQUIPMENT...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 272201
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
501 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS POSITIONED BACK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT BROUGHT LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PA AND NW NJ THIS MORNING
HAS EXITED THE AREA AND IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING IN, YIELDING SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE CLEARING HAS BEEN
MOST PROMINENT. ELSEWHERE, TEMPS ARE STUCK IN THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON. A SECOND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
LOWER DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN DE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN MD THROUGH
SUNSET.

STRATOCU SHOULD ERODE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING
AND AS DRIER AIR NEAR 925 MB ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. MID AND HI
CLOUDS WILL THEN SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR 20F IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 30F IN THE
DELMARVA, SOUTHERN NJ COAST AND IN CENTER CITY PHILLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR BLACK FRIDAY. A
CAA REGIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS
WELL. SO DESPITE SUNSHINE TOMORROW VS CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE COAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-25 MPH) IN THE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WINDS RELAX A BIT
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THEY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE. ANYTHING THAT
WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST, THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST, AND THE ECMWF IN
BETWEEN. ALSO THERE AREA DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS, SO WE WILL
KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRIER AIR
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO WE MAKE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR TUESDAY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY, THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY OVC STRATOCU BETWEEN 2-3 KFT RESULTED IN MVFR CONDITIONS
EARLY THIS AFTN. SOME CLEARING HAS SINCE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE REGION, RESULTING IN THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR SINCE ABOUT 19Z. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THRU
21-00Z BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA AND FURTHER CLEARING
OCCURS. MID TO HI CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL. W-NW WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT.

VFR ON FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT FROM MID MORNING THRU MID
AFTN. WINDS RELAX LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR UNLESS
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTN HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. HOWEVER, A NEW SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR
THE DE BAY AND MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES TO COVER THE EXPECTED
NORTHWEST PRESSURE SURGE. MIXING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH EVEN COLDER
AIR MOVING ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THE SCA IS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET.
THE SCA FOR THIS NORTHERN MOST ZONE IS ONLY IN EFFECT FRIDAY SINCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TONIGHT AND THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED BASED
ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN UNMITIGATED
BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION PATTERN (EPO) TOOK
HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE WINTER. WHILE THE
COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT
NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH. IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME
(OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES) THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A
WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER COMBINATION
OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE TWO PREVIOUS
AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE AND
A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE MAJOR
SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK EL
NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF SIX
INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE MOST
COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY, BUT
THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW COVERAGE
IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER, EVEN
FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER 1976
FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH SEPTEMBER
AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64 PERCENT OF THE
ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN THE CURRENT
AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING EITHER ABOVE
OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL
IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS LIKE 2013-14 SKEW
UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE.  SINCE 1967 (THE START OF THE
SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3
WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR
SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING THE
MONTH OF OCTOBER.  WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS HAS
AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE EASTERLY
PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC WINDS OVER THE
TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE HAVE HAD MORE
SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN SPLITS AND DISPLACES
EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS
NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD BE THE SO CALLED
BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS
THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE. SINCE
1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A
NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK ORDILLE POINTED
US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION SPRING-SUMMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF THE NAO FOR THE
ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE OF WINTERS (HERE
COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR THIS UPCOMING
WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED NEGATIVE
(HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES SINCE 1900)
DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED
COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND 20 INCHES OF
SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF ALL WINTERS
SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN PHILADELPHIA WHEN
THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE GREATEST POINT OF
FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY POSITIVE IN THE
AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD, HALF
OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE OF THE
PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER. THIS
NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER OCCURRENCE AND
A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN 2012 OCTOBER
WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WINTERS, WE ARE
EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL NEGATIVE. WHILE THE
PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD LOOKS DIFFERENT AS
POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FARTHER EAST THAN
THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED ON
WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT NORMAL
NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK AND ENSO
POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S) DURING THE
WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT WAS A WEAK EL NINO
AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS PAST PERFORMANCE MAY
NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF IT
BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE IS HAVING A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU
WILL HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE BEYOND
YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GIGI
EQUIPMENT...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 272201
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
501 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS POSITIONED BACK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT BROUGHT LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PA AND NW NJ THIS MORNING
HAS EXITED THE AREA AND IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING IN, YIELDING SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE CLEARING HAS BEEN
MOST PROMINENT. ELSEWHERE, TEMPS ARE STUCK IN THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON. A SECOND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
LOWER DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN DE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN MD THROUGH
SUNSET.

STRATOCU SHOULD ERODE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING
AND AS DRIER AIR NEAR 925 MB ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. MID AND HI
CLOUDS WILL THEN SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR 20F IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 30F IN THE
DELMARVA, SOUTHERN NJ COAST AND IN CENTER CITY PHILLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR BLACK FRIDAY. A
CAA REGIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS
WELL. SO DESPITE SUNSHINE TOMORROW VS CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE COAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-25 MPH) IN THE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WINDS RELAX A BIT
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THEY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE. ANYTHING THAT
WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST, THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST, AND THE ECMWF IN
BETWEEN. ALSO THERE AREA DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS, SO WE WILL
KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRIER AIR
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO WE MAKE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR TUESDAY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY, THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY OVC STRATOCU BETWEEN 2-3 KFT RESULTED IN MVFR CONDITIONS
EARLY THIS AFTN. SOME CLEARING HAS SINCE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE REGION, RESULTING IN THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR SINCE ABOUT 19Z. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THRU
21-00Z BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA AND FURTHER CLEARING
OCCURS. MID TO HI CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL. W-NW WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT.

VFR ON FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT FROM MID MORNING THRU MID
AFTN. WINDS RELAX LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR UNLESS
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTN HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. HOWEVER, A NEW SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR
THE DE BAY AND MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES TO COVER THE EXPECTED
NORTHWEST PRESSURE SURGE. MIXING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH EVEN COLDER
AIR MOVING ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THE SCA IS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET.
THE SCA FOR THIS NORTHERN MOST ZONE IS ONLY IN EFFECT FRIDAY SINCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TONIGHT AND THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THANKSGIVING UPON US AND METEOROLOGICAL WINTER KNOCKING ON OUR
DOOR, ITS OUR ANNUAL LOOK TO SEE HOW PAST WINTERS HAVE FARED BASED
ON PRECEDING FALL PATTERNS AND TRENDS.

OUR FORAY LAST FALL ABOUT THE WINTER OF 2013-14 WAS AN UNMITIGATED
BUST AS THE NEGATIVE EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION PATTERN (EPO) TOOK
HOLD IN NOVEMBER AND NEVER LET GO THE ENTIRE WINTER. WHILE THE
COLDER NOVEMBER TRENDED DOWN OUR WINTER TEMPERATURE ANALOGS TO ABOUT
NORMAL, IT WAS NOWHERE NEAR ENOUGH. IT WAS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH TIME
(OUT OF FORTY SIX OCCURRENCES) THAT A BOTTOM THIRD WINTER FOLLOWED A
WARM OCTOBER.

ONCE AGAIN WE ARE HEADING INTO THIS WINTER WITH A RARER COMBINATION
OF A WARM OCTOBER AND COLDER NOVEMBER JUST LIKE THE TWO PREVIOUS
AUTUMNS.

IN TERMS OF ENSO, THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THE WINTER SEASON IS FOR A WEAK EL NINO TO
OCCUR. OF LATE THE EL NINO HAS LOOKED HEALTHIER AS A KELVIN WAVE AND
A CURRENTLY ROBUST MJO CYCLE HAVE/WILL HELP BOOST SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (SSTA). AS CPC HAS STATED, THERE IS STILL A
SSTA AND ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE DISCONNECT THAT EXISTS. THE LATEST
GLOBAL WIND OSCILLATION READINGS, OUR ATMOSPHERE IS STILL IN AN
ENSO NEUTRAL STATE EVEN IF WATER EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES HAVE BECOME WARMER.

WEAK EL NINOS SINCE 1950 IN PHILADELPHIA HAVE HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 33.2 DEGREES AND AVERAGE SNOWFALL OF 21.8 INCHES.
WEAK EL NINOS, LIKE MOST NON-UBER EL NINOS, FAVOR HAVING MORE MAJOR
SNOW STORMS THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE. IN THE TEN WEAK EL
NINOS SINCE 1950, PHILADELPHIA HAS HAD EIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS OF SIX
INCHES OR MORE, FOUR OF WHICH WERE TEN INCHES OR MORE. THE MOST
COMMON MONTH FOR MAJOR SNOWS DURING WEAK EL NINOS IS JANUARY, BUT
THEY HAVE OCCURRED IN EVERY MONTH FROM NOVEMBER THROUGH MARCH.

LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES, ONCE AGAIN SNOW COVERAGE
IN EURASIA WAS OFF TO THE RACES IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER, EVEN
FASTER THAN AUTUMN OF 2013. OCTOBER 2014 ONLY TRAILED OCTOBER 1976
FOR TOTAL SNOW COVERAGE. IN THE SATELLITE ERA WHEN BOTH SEPTEMBER
AND OCTOBER HAVE HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOW COVERAGE, 64 PERCENT OF THE
ENSUING PHILADELPHIA WINTERS HAVE BEEN SNOWIER THAN THE CURRENT
AVERAGE AND HAD A 50/50 SPLIT WITH TEMPERATURES BEING EITHER ABOVE
OR BELOW NORMAL. WHILE 64 PERCENT MAY NOT SOUND DEFINITIVE, SNOWFALL
IS NOT A NORMAL DISTRIBUTION BECAUSE SEASONS LIKE 2013-14 SKEW
UPWARD THE STATISTICAL AVERAGE.  SINCE 1967 (THE START OF THE
SATELLITE ERA AND OUR LOOK AT THE DR. JUDAH COHEN STUDY) ONLY 1 IN 3
WINTERS HAS HAD ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL. THE STATISTICAL MEDIAN FOR
SNOWFALL IN PHILADELPHIA SINCE 1967 IS ABOUT 18 INCHES.

BEYOND SIBERIA, THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AVERAGED NEGATIVE DURING THE
MONTH OF OCTOBER.  WHEN IT HAS, 70 PERCENT OF ENSUING WINTERS HAS
AVERAGED NEGATIVE. THANK-YOU METEOROLOGIST MATT LANZA FOR THIS
INFORMATION. ANOTHER PHENOMENON THAT FAVORS A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION FOR THIS UPCOMING WINTER IS THAT WE ARE IN THE EASTERLY
PHASE OF THE QUASI-BIANNUAL OSCILLATION STRATOSPHERIC WINDS OVER THE
TROPICS. WHEN WE ARE IN THIS PHASE, HISTORICALLY WE HAVE HAD MORE
SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING EVENTS WHICH OFTEN SPLITS AND DISPLACES
EVERYBODY`S FAVORITE POLAR VORTEX FROM NEAR THE NORTH POLE. THERE IS
NO GUARANTEE THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE WOULD BE THE SO CALLED
BENEFICIARY OF THIS ARCTIC DISPLACEMENT, BUT A HIGHER CHANCE EXISTS
THIS WINTER VS NO CHANCE AT ALL.

THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION`S COUSIN, THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION
(NAO), WE HAVE SEEN BEEN THE DRIVER (WINTER OF 2010-11) OR THE
CRICKET CHIRPING (LAST WINTER) RECENTLY. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
IMPORTANT TELECONNECTION INDEX IS TOUGH TO OUTLOOK MORE THAN WEEKS
IN ADVANCE. WHILE THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION AND NORTH ATLANTIC
OSCILLATION NORMALLY WORK IN TANDEM, ITS NOT ALWAYS THE CASE. SINCE
1950, 60 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A NEGATIVE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION, BUT ONLY 42 PERCENT OF ALL WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED A
NEGATIVE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION. THE LATE JACK ORDILLE POINTED
US TO A RESEARCH PAPER USING NEWFOUNDLAND REGION SPRING-SUMMER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AS A PREDICTOR OF THE NAO FOR THE
ENSUING WINTER. IT HAS WORKED WELL THE LAST COUPLE OF WINTERS (HERE
COMES THE JINX) AND IT FAVORS A NEGATIVE NAO FOR THIS UPCOMING
WINTER.

THIS BRINGS US TO OUR LAST (BUT NOT LEAST) OSCILLATION INDEX, THE
PACIFIC DECADAL OSCILLATION (PDO). CURRENTLY THE OSCILLATION IS IN
TEXTBOOK POSITIVE POSITION. SO MUCH SO, THAT WHEN ITS BEEN THIS
POSITIVE DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER, IT HAS NEVER AVERAGED NEGATIVE
(HERE COMES ANOTHER ANNOUNCER`S JINX: 15 OF 15 TIMES SINCE 1900)
DURING THE UPCOMING WINTER. ELEVEN OF THOSE WINTERS HAVE AVERAGED
COLDER THAN THE CURRENT AVERAGE (AND AVERAGED AROUND 20 INCHES OF
SNOW) IN PHILADELPHIA. HISTORICALLY ABOUT 2/3RDS OF ALL WINTERS
SINCE 1900 HAVE AVERAGED COLDER THAN NORMAL IN PHILADELPHIA WHEN
THE PDO HAS AVERAGED POSITIVE. IN FACT, THE GREATEST POINT OF
FAILURE WHEN WARM OCTOBERS HAVE NOT BEEN FOLLOWED BY WARMER
WINTERS HAS BEEN WHEN THE PDO HAS BEEN STRONGLY POSITIVE IN THE
AUTUMN.

LOCALLY, OF THE 46 WARMEST WINTERS IN PHILADELPHIA ON RECORD, HALF
OF THEM HAVE OCCURRED AFTER A WARM OCTOBER. GIVEN THE STATE OF THE
PDO, WE DONT HAVE A WARM FEELING ABOUT THAT THIS WINTER. THIS
NOVEMBER WILL END AGAIN CLOSE TO THE CUSP BETWEEN THE UNSEASONABLY
COLD AND NORMAL TERCILES. REGARDLESS THIS IS A RARER OCCURRENCE AND
A CONTRADICTION IN THE STUDY FIRST DONE IN WHICH THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A WARM WINTER IS A WARM OCTOBER WHILE THE STRONGEST
CORRELATOR FOR A COLD WINTER IS A COLD NOVEMBER. IN 2012 OCTOBER
WON, LAST YEAR NOVEMBER WON. UNLIKE THE LAST TWO WINTERS, WE ARE
EXPECTING A WEAK EL NINO AND NOT ENSO NEUTRAL NEGATIVE. WHILE THE
PACIFIC FAVORS COLD AGAIN, THE TYPE OF COLD LOOKS DIFFERENT AS
POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FARTHER EAST THAN
THEY WERE LAST AUTUMN.

SO HERE ARE OUR ANALOGS FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER. THEY ARE BASED ON
WARMER THAN CURRENT NORMAL OCTOBERS AND COLDER THAN CURRENT NORMAL
NOVEMBERS. THE ANALOGS ARE A COMBINATION OF MODERATE, WEAK AND ENSO
POSITIVE WINTERS. SEVEN OF THESE ALSO HAD POSITIVE PDO(S) DURING THE
WINTER, THE ONE EXCEPTION (1953-4) WE KEPT BECAUSE IT WAS A WEAK EL NINO
AND IT ALSO WAS A SNOWY NOVEMBER. AS ALWAYS PAST PERFORMANCE MAY
NOT BE AN INDICATOR OF FUTURE TRENDS....AND NOW TO THE GREAT EIGHT:



SEASON         DEC      JAN      FEB    WINTER    SEASONAL   WINTER
               AVG      AVG      AVG      AVG     SNOWFALL   PCPN


1905-06        39.2     39.4     33.6     37.4       20.5    8.61
1914-15        33.3     36.6     38.6     36.2       32.5   19.64
1939-40        38.1     25.3     34.8     32.7       22.3    7.77
1941-42        38.3     30.5     30.8     33.2       10.3    9.24
1951-52        38.7     37.3     38.2     38.1       16.2   12.21
1953-54        39.4     31.7     41.7     37.6       22.6    7.58
1986-87        37.9     31.9     32.5     34.1       25.7   11.64
2002-03        35.4     28.6     29.9     31.3       46.3   11.02

AVG            37.5     32.7     35.0     35.1       24.6   11.59
1981-2010 NML  37.5     33.0     35.7     35.4       22.4    9.24

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF IT
BEING EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN NORMAL AND A GREATER CHANCE OF
IT BEING WETTER THAN NORMAL.

WE HOPE EVERYONE IS HAVING A GREAT THANKSGIVING AND WE HOPE YOU
WILL HAVE A HAPPY UPCOMING HOLIDAY SEASON. MAY THIS WINTER BE BEYOND
YOUR WILDEST EXPECTATIONS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GIGI
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 272039
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, BEFORE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRIEFLY RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS POSITIONED BACK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.

THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT BROUGHT LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PA AND NW NJ THIS MORNING
HAS EXITED THE AREA AND IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING IN, YIELDING SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ WHERE CLEARING HAS BEEN
MOST PROMINENT. ELSEWHERE, TEMPS ARE STUCK IN THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON. A SECOND SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
LOWER DELMARVA THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN DE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN MD THROUGH
SUNSET.

STRATOCU SHOULD ERODE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING
AND AS DRIER AIR NEAR 925 MB ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. MID AND HI
CLOUDS WILL THEN SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT RANGE FROM NEAR 20F IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 30F IN THE
DELMARVA, SOUTHERN NJ COAST AND IN CENTER CITY PHILLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER FOR BLACK FRIDAY. A
CAA REGIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS
WELL. SO DESPITE SUNSHINE TOMORROW VS CLOUDY SKIES TODAY, MAX TEMPS
FRIDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 40F ALONG THE COAST.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE BREEZY (GUSTS 20-25 MPH) IN THE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE WINDS RELAX A BIT
LATE IN THE DAY WHEN THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES, BUT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WE WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THEY
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE. ANYTHING THAT
WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST, THE CANADIAN THE SLOWEST, AND THE ECMWF IN
BETWEEN. ALSO THERE AREA DIFFERENCES WITH QPF AMOUNTS, SO WE WILL
KEEP CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE DRIER AIR
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY, SO WE MAKE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR TUESDAY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEASTWARD, BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY INT
WEDNESDAY, THEN LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY OVC STRATOCU BETWEEN 2-3 KFT RESULTED IN MVFR CONDITIONS
EARLY THIS AFTN. SOME CLEARING HAS SINCE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE REGION, RESULTING IN THE MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS VARYING
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR SINCE ABOUT 19Z. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THRU
21-00Z BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA AND FURTHER CLEARING
OCCURS. MID TO HI CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT BUT VFR WILL PREVAIL. W-NW WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT.

VFR ON FRIDAY. NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KT FROM MID MORNING THRU MID
AFTN. WINDS RELAX LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY;
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY VFR UNLESS
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTN HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. HOWEVER, A NEW SCA WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR
THE DE BAY AND MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES TO COVER THE EXPECTED
NORTHWEST PRESSURE SURGE. MIXING WILL BE EFFECTIVE WITH EVEN COLDER
AIR MOVING ABOVE THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO
THE SCA IS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET.
THE SCA FOR THIS NORTHERN MOST ZONE IS ONLY IN EFFECT FRIDAY SINCE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT WEAKER TONIGHT AND THE GUST
POTENTIAL SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 20 KT.

OUTLOOK... FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE AFFECTS THE WATERS.


&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
EQUIPMENT...KLEIN





000
FXUS61 KPHI 271618 AAA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1118 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY, BUILDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST LATER ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE RECEIVED A SNOWFALL REPORT OF 2 INCHES IN LAKE HARMONY AROUND
1030 AM (NEAR THE CARBON/MONROE BORDER AT AN ELEVATION OF 1800 FT
ASL). IT IS ONE OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN OUR CWA, SO MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE OUR NORTHERN-MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE MUCH LESS
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AS TEMPS ARE CLOSER TO FREEZING AND THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHTER IN INTENSITY ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE
POCONOS. PUSHED OUT A SNOWFALL MAP ON THE WEBSITE FOR TODAY. THE
MAP ALSO INCLUDES WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN THIS MORNING.

940 AM DISCUSSION...
THE COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW A 990 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA. THIS MORNING`S WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA
THIS MORNING AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS, NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AS WELL AS A
FEW FLURRIES TO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLOW TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY, SO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY
LINGER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS, SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION THERE.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL VA THIS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE DELMARVA LATER
TODAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
STAYING SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRUSH SOUTHERN
DE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN MD THIS AFTERNOON.

A PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S COASTAL
LOW AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (MID TO UPPER 30S WEST OF THE FALL LINE / LOWER
TO MID 40S TO THE EAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRAVELING IN THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. WHILE MUCH
OF THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER OUR AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING,
THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD.

A LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS UP NORTH AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE. WE WENT A BIT BELOW THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
VALUES WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...COLD AIR SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN
THURSDAY BUT THE SUN SHOULD BE SHINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. SEVERAL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND MAY SPARK
OFF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
LIMITING FACTOR IS JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO TAP
INTO AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY DURING THE DAY. WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERNS
POCONOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WE CLOUD
UP, WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS STARTS TO MODIFY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE EAST COAST AND THEN GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY AND AND ANOTHER DRY DAY SHOULD BE IN STORE
FOR THE AREA. AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN COLDER
AND SOME SPOTS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR
AREA AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS WE HAVE A BUILDING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. WHILE
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY, SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH LOW
TO MOD 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT SLOWLY
DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA BUT
SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS
TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER
AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN. BEHIND THE FRONT, WE WILL SEE THE COLD
AIR MOVE IN AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY STILL BE AROUND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN SLIDES ACROSS TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA
AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERING OPINIONS IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING, MOISTURE AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU ABE AND TTN. EXPECT THE LAST
OF THIS ACTIVITY TO END AT TTN IN BEFORE 16Z AND ABE BY 17Z,
RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AND TEMPO MVFR-IFR VSBYS. CLEARING JUST
UPSTREAM OF PHL AND PNE SHOULD ALLOW THESE TERMINALS THE BKN MVFR
CIGS AROUND 3000 FT TO SCT OUT LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, LATEST
HRRR/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WHICH HAS CAPTURED THIS FIRST ROUND
OF LOWER CIGS, SHOWS ENOUGH DAYTIME MIXING AND CAA ALOFT FOR
STRATOCU TO REDEVELOP AROUND 2500 FT BY AROUND 18-19Z. THE OTHER
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR TODAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
STRATOCUMULUS OVERHEAD WITH BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET. A RELATIVELY
LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPEEDS SHOULD FAVOR THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

VFR TONIGHT AS STRATOCU DIMINISHES. SHOULD STILL SEE MID TO HI
CLOUDS OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING,
WIND SPEEDS ARE ON THE DECREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS. WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAIN ELEVATED ON OUR OCEAN WATERS AND THEY WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO FALL BACK BELOW 5 FEET. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM.

AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME AND WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO COVER THAT PERIOD ONCE THE CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS,
ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE STRONGEST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE FOR MONITORING THE SNOW SHOWERS
IN NORTHEASTERN PA AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN NJ.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/KLEIN/MEOLA
EQUIPMENT...KLEIN








000
FXUS61 KPHI 271440
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY, BUILDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST LATER ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW A 990 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA. THIS MORNING`S WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA
THIS MORNING AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS, NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AS WELL AS A
FEW FLURRIES TO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLOW TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY, SO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY
LINGER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS, SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION THERE.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL VA THIS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE DELMARVA LATER
TODAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
STAYING SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRUSH SOUTHERN
DE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN MD THIS AFTERNOON.

A PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S COASTAL
LOW AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (MID TO UPPER 30S WEST OF THE FALL LINE / LOWER
TO MID 40S TO THE EAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRAVELING IN THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. WHILE MUCH
OF THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER OUR AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING,
THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD.

A LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS UP NORTH AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE. WE WENT A BIT BELOW THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
VALUES WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...COLD AIR SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN
THURSDAY BUT THE SUN SHOULD BE SHINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. SEVERAL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND MAY SPARK
OFF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
LIMITING FACTOR IS JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO TAP
INTO AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY DURING THE DAY. WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERNS
POCONOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WE CLOUD
UP, WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS STARTS TO MODIFY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE EAST COAST AND THEN GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY AND AND ANOTHER DRY DAY SHOULD BE IN STORE
FOR THE AREA. AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN COLDER
AND SOME SPOTS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR
AREA AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS WE HAVE A BUILDING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. WHILE
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY, SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH LOW
TO MOD 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT SLOWLY
DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA BUT
SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS
TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER
AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN. BEHIND THE FRONT, WE WILL SEE THE COLD
AIR MOVE IN AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY STILL BE AROUND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN SLIDES ACROSS TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA
AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERING OPINIONS IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING, MOISTURE AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU ABE AND TTN. EXPECT THE LAST
OF THIS ACTIVITY TO END AT TTN IN BEFORE 16Z AND ABE BY 17Z,
RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AND TEMPO MVFR-IFR VSBYS. CLEARING JUST
UPSTREAM OF PHL AND PNE SHOULD ALLOW THESE TERMINALS THE BKN MVFR
CIGS AROUND 3000 FT TO SCT OUT LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, LATEST
HRRR/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WHICH HAS CAPTURED THIS FIRST ROUND
OF LOWER CIGS, SHOWS ENOUGH DAYTIME MIXING AND CAA ALOFT FOR
STRATOCU TO REDEVELOP AROUND 2500 FT BY AROUND 18-19Z. THE OTHER
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR TODAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
STRATOCUMULUS OVERHEAD WITH BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET. A RELATIVELY
LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPEEDS SHOULD FAVOR THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

VFR TONIGHT AS STRATOCU DIMINISHES. SHOULD STILL SEE MID TO HI
CLOUDS OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING,
WIND SPEEDS ARE ON THE DECREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS. WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAIN ELEVATED ON OUR OCEAN WATERS AND THEY WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO FALL BACK BELOW 5 FEET. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM.

AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME AND WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO COVER THAT PERIOD ONCE THE CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS,
ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE STRONGEST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE FOR MONITORING THE SNOW SHOWERS
IN NORTHEASTERN PA AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN NJ.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/KLEIN/MEOLA
EQUIPMENT...KLEIN







000
FXUS61 KPHI 271440
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY, BUILDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST LATER ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT WINTRY WEATHER TO THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY IS NOW A 990 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
NOVA SCOTIA. THIS MORNING`S WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THE
UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CARVED OUT OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EASTERN PA
THIS MORNING AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS, NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AS WELL AS A
FEW FLURRIES TO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLOW TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY, SO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY
LINGER ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PA/NORTHERN NJ INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES ARE
AT OR ABOVE FREEZING IN THE VALLEYS, SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATION THERE.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL VA THIS
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE DELMARVA LATER
TODAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
STAYING SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRUSH SOUTHERN
DE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN MD THIS AFTERNOON.

A PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY`S COASTAL
LOW AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (MID TO UPPER 30S WEST OF THE FALL LINE / LOWER
TO MID 40S TO THE EAST).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRAVELING IN THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. WHILE MUCH
OF THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER OUR AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING,
THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD.

A LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS UP NORTH AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE. WE WENT A BIT BELOW THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
VALUES WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...COLD AIR SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN
THURSDAY BUT THE SUN SHOULD BE SHINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. SEVERAL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND MAY SPARK
OFF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
LIMITING FACTOR IS JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO TAP
INTO AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY DURING THE DAY. WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERNS
POCONOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WE CLOUD
UP, WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS STARTS TO MODIFY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE EAST COAST AND THEN GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY AND AND ANOTHER DRY DAY SHOULD BE IN STORE
FOR THE AREA. AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN COLDER
AND SOME SPOTS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR
AREA AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS WE HAVE A BUILDING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. WHILE
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY, SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH LOW
TO MOD 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT SLOWLY
DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA BUT
SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS
TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER
AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN. BEHIND THE FRONT, WE WILL SEE THE COLD
AIR MOVE IN AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY STILL BE AROUND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN SLIDES ACROSS TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA
AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERING OPINIONS IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING, MOISTURE AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU ABE AND TTN. EXPECT THE LAST
OF THIS ACTIVITY TO END AT TTN IN BEFORE 16Z AND ABE BY 17Z,
RESULTING IN MVFR CIGS AND TEMPO MVFR-IFR VSBYS. CLEARING JUST
UPSTREAM OF PHL AND PNE SHOULD ALLOW THESE TERMINALS THE BKN MVFR
CIGS AROUND 3000 FT TO SCT OUT LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, LATEST
HRRR/RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WHICH HAS CAPTURED THIS FIRST ROUND
OF LOWER CIGS, SHOWS ENOUGH DAYTIME MIXING AND CAA ALOFT FOR
STRATOCU TO REDEVELOP AROUND 2500 FT BY AROUND 18-19Z. THE OTHER
TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN VFR TODAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
STRATOCUMULUS OVERHEAD WITH BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET. A RELATIVELY
LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPEEDS SHOULD FAVOR THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

VFR TONIGHT AS STRATOCU DIMINISHES. SHOULD STILL SEE MID TO HI
CLOUDS OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING,
WIND SPEEDS ARE ON THE DECREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS. WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAIN ELEVATED ON OUR OCEAN WATERS AND THEY WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO FALL BACK BELOW 5 FEET. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM.

AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME AND WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO COVER THAT PERIOD ONCE THE CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS,
ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTHERN WATERS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE STRONGEST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDIX WSR-88D RADAR IS INOPERATIVE. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED
AND WILL TROUBLESHOOT THE ISSUE. TPHL TDWR SHOULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT BACKUP RADAR COVERAGE FOR MONITORING THE SNOW SHOWERS
IN NORTHEASTERN PA AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN NJ.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/KLEIN/MEOLA
EQUIPMENT...KLEIN








000
FXUS61 KPHI 271150
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
650 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY, BUILDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST LATER ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA AT
630 AM. IT WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.

CLOUDS REMAINED OVER OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WERE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THE AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR AREA ON A RELATIVELY
LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND TODAY. SPEEDS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE.

A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTEX WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AROUND
600 AM. THE FEATURE WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND IT SHOULD PASS
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION AND IT MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MEANWHILE, WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND EVAPORATION FROM THE SNOW
COVER AND MOIST GROUND ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
STRATOCUMULUS FOR TODAY. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 40S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRAVELING IN THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. WHILE MUCH
OF THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER OUR AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING,
THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD.

A LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS UP NORTH AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE. WE WENT A BIT BELOW THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
VALUES WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...COLD AIR SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN
THURSDAY BUT THE SUN SHOULD BE SHINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. SEVERAL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND MAY SPARK
OFF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
LIMITING FACTOR IS JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO TAP
INTO AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY DURING THE DAY. WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERNS
POCONOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WE CLOUD
UP, WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS STARTS TO MODIFY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE EAST COAST AND THEN GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY AND AND ANOTHER DRY DAY SHOULD BE IN STORE
FOR THE AREA. AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN COLDER
AND SOME SPOTS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR
AREA AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS WE HAVE A BUILDING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. WHILE
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY, SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH LOW
TO MOD 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT SLOWLY
DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA BUT
SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS
TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER
AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN. BEHIND THE FRONT, WE WILL SEE THE COLD
AIR MOVE IN AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY STILL BE AROUND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN SLIDES ACROSS TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA
AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERING OPINIONS IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING, MOISTURE AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY AFFECT KABE AND KTTN
UNTIL ABOUT 1300Z AS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AT OUR TAF SITES WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS
OVERHEAD DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET.

A RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS SHOULD FAVOR THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING,
WIND SPEEDS ARE ON THE DECREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS. WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAIN ELEVATED ON OUR OCEAN WATERS AND THEY WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO FALL BACK BELOW 5 FEET. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM.

AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME AND WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO COVER THAT PERIOD ONCE THE CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...IOVINO/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 271150
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
650 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY, BUILDING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST LATER ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA AT
630 AM. IT WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION.

CLOUDS REMAINED OVER OUR REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WERE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. THE AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST
THIS MORNING. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.

DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR AREA ON A RELATIVELY
LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND TODAY. SPEEDS SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 5
TO 10 MPH RANGE.

A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTEX WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AROUND
600 AM. THE FEATURE WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND IT SHOULD PASS
OFF THE DELMARVA COAST LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION AND IT MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MEANWHILE, WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND EVAPORATION FROM THE SNOW
COVER AND MOIST GROUND ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
STRATOCUMULUS FOR TODAY. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 40S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRAVELING IN THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. WHILE MUCH
OF THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER OUR AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING,
THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD.

A LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS UP NORTH AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE. WE WENT A BIT BELOW THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
VALUES WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...COLD AIR SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN
THURSDAY BUT THE SUN SHOULD BE SHINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. SEVERAL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND MAY SPARK
OFF A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
LIMITING FACTOR IS JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO TAP
INTO AS IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY DURING THE DAY. WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERNS
POCONOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WE CLOUD
UP, WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER LOWS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIR MASS STARTS TO MODIFY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE EAST COAST AND THEN GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY AND AND ANOTHER DRY DAY SHOULD BE IN STORE
FOR THE AREA. AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN COLDER
AND SOME SPOTS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK.
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR
AREA AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THAT AREA.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS WE HAVE A BUILDING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. WHILE
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY, SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH LOW
TO MOD 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT SLOWLY
DROPPING DOWN THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA BUT
SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS
TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER
AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN. BEHIND THE FRONT, WE WILL SEE THE COLD
AIR MOVE IN AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S
TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY STILL BE AROUND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN SLIDES ACROSS TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA
AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERING OPINIONS IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT TO
TIMING, MOISTURE AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY AFFECT KABE AND KTTN
UNTIL ABOUT 1300Z AS AN AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AT OUR TAF SITES WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS
OVERHEAD DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET.

A RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS SHOULD FAVOR THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING,
WIND SPEEDS ARE ON THE DECREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS. WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAIN ELEVATED ON OUR OCEAN WATERS AND THEY WILL TAKE
SOME TIME TO FALL BACK BELOW 5 FEET. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM.

AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME AND WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO COVER THAT PERIOD ONCE THE CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OCEAN
WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...IOVINO/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/MEOLA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 270831
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
331 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY, BUILDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST LATER ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HEADING
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA AT 300 AM. IT WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE
OVER OUR REGION.

CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS REMAINED OVER OUR
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO
OUR EAST BY DAYBREAK WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
ANTICIPATED. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR AREA ON A
RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND TODAY. SPEEDS SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE.

A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTEX WAS LOCATED OVER KENTUCKY AROUND 300 AM. THE
FEATURE WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION AND IT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY.

MEANWHILE, WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND EVAPORATION FROM THE SNOW COVER
AND MOIST GROUND ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
STRATOCUMULUS FOR TODAY. SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
30S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 40S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRAVELING IN THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. WHILE MUCH OF
THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER OUR AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, THE
SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD.

A LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS UP NORTH AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE. WE WENT A BIT BELOW THE FORECAST GUIDANCE VALUES
WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...COLD AIR SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THURSDAY
BUT THE SUN SHOULD BE SHINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
SEVERAL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND MAY SPARK OFF A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS. LIMITING FACTOR IS
JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO TAP INTO AS IT LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERNS POCONOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AT
THIS TIME. CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WE CLOUD UP, WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER
LOWS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO
20S WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS STARTS TO MODIFY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE EAST COAST AND THEN GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY AND AND ANOTHER DRY DAY SHOULD BE IN STORE FOR
THE AREA. AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN COLDER AND
SOME SPOTS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THAT AREA.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
WE HAVE A BUILDING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. WHILE
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY, SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH LOW TO MOD
40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING
DOWN THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA BUT SOME
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME,
HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE
AGAIN MOVES IN. BEHIND THE FRONT, WE WILL SEE THE COLD AIR MOVE IN
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY STILL
BE AROUND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN SLIDES ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER
THAN ON MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA AND
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. DIFFERING
OPINIONS IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT TO TIMING,
MOISTURE AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY AFFECT KRDG AND KABE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE AT KTTN AND KMIV EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT AT
OUR TAF SITES WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS OVERHEAD DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET.

A RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SPEEDS SHOULD FAVOR THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO
20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE LOW CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING,
WIND SPEEDS WERE ON THE DECREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS
REMAINED ELEVATED ON OUR OCEAN WATERS AND THEY WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO FALL BACK BELOW 5 FEET. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. IT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM.

AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME AND WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO COVER THAT PERIOD ONCE THE CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...IOVINO/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 270831
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
331 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TODAY, BUILDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE SLIDING TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST LATER ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TOWARDS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HEADING
TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA AT 300 AM. IT WILL CONTINUE TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE
OVER OUR REGION.

CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS REMAINED OVER OUR
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT TO
OUR EAST BY DAYBREAK WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
ANTICIPATED. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR AREA ON A
RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND TODAY. SPEEDS SHOULD BE MAINLY
IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE.

A WEAK MID LEVEL VORTEX WAS LOCATED OVER KENTUCKY AROUND 300 AM. THE
FEATURE WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE IN THE DAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION AND IT MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY.

MEANWHILE, WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND EVAPORATION FROM THE SNOW COVER
AND MOIST GROUND ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF
STRATOCUMULUS FOR TODAY. SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
30S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 40S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRAVELING IN THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. WHILE MUCH OF
THE STRATOCUMULUS OVER OUR AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING, THE
SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD.

A LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE TEENS UP NORTH AND INTO
THE 20S ELSEWHERE. WE WENT A BIT BELOW THE FORECAST GUIDANCE VALUES
WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS EXPECTED TO LINGER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY...COLD AIR SETTLES IN FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN THURSDAY
BUT THE SUN SHOULD BE SHINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.
SEVERAL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE MID LEVELS AND MAY SPARK OFF A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS. LIMITING FACTOR IS
JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO TAP INTO AS IT LOOKS LIKE
WE WILL BE FAIRLY DRY DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERNS POCONOS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AT
THIS TIME. CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WE CLOUD UP, WE MAY SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER
LOWS. FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO
20S WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS STARTS TO MODIFY AS THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
THE EAST COAST AND THEN GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY AND AND ANOTHER DRY DAY SHOULD BE IN STORE FOR
THE AREA. AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL REMAIN COLDER AND
SOME SPOTS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SOME ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THAT AREA.

THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
WE HAVE A BUILDING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. WHILE
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY, SOME SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH LOW TO MOD
40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONT SLOWLY DROPPING
DOWN THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA BUT SOME
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME,
HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE
AGAIN MOVES IN. BEHIND THE FRONT, WE WILL SEE THE COLD AIR MOVE IN
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S TO LOWER 30S
ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE, ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION
WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY STILL
BE AROUND EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST AND THEN SLIDES ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER
THAN ON MONDAY.

WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD OUR AREA AND
IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. DIFFERING
OPINIONS IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME WITH RESPECT TO TIMING,
MOISTURE AND POSITION OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY AFFECT KRDG AND KABE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE AT KTTN AND KMIV EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT AT
OUR TAF SITES WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF STRATOCUMULUS OVERHEAD DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH BASES ABOVE 4000 FEET.

A RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SPEEDS SHOULD FAVOR THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO
15 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO
20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE LOW CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA EARLY THIS MORNING,
WIND SPEEDS WERE ON THE DECREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS. WAVE HEIGHTS
REMAINED ELEVATED ON OUR OCEAN WATERS AND THEY WILL TAKE SOME TIME
TO FALL BACK BELOW 5 FEET. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS. IT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM.

AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY CAUSE WIND SPEEDS TO
INCREASE ON OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME AND WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO COVER THAT PERIOD ONCE THE CURRENT ADVISORY ENDS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OCEAN WATERS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSS THE REGION
ON MONDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...IOVINO/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/MEOLA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 270550
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1250 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF CAPE COD AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND IT SHOULD REACH NOVA SCOTIA AROUND DAYBREAK.

THE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE SLOWLY DURING THE
NIGHT AS THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND BRINGS DRY AIR
INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ONLY A FEW
DEGREES FROM THEIR MIDNIGHT VALUES WITH LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S IN
THE SOUTH.

LIGHT SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN EXTREME EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
IN NEW JERSEY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM
OF SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND IT WAS RAIN
ELSEWHERE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND
OUT OF OUR REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT IS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. THE
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NJ
COAST AND THROUGH THE DELMARVA. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS LOW WOULD THEN MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS
NORTH OF THIS LOW MAY BRUSH THE DELMARVA DURING THE DAY. BOUNDARY
LAYER THERMAL PROFILES MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A SNOW PERHAPS
MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 40F.

OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS, GIVING US HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM I-95 WEST AND LOWER 40S TO
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT MAY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AREAS. THEY WOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED, SO WE ONLY CARRY 20
POPS.

ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST,
BEFORE SQUEEZING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT
WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES WHERE THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME
MOISTURE. ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE
GFS IS FAST THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN, AND DRIES THE PRECIP OUT
SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN, BUT UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS SOME
LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS, WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS WHERE THE PRECIP WOULD IMPACT FIRST BEFORE DRYING OUT.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP THAT
LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IF THE FRONT STALLS CLOSER TO
THE AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND
NEXT WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER THE FRONT
SURGES THROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF, OR GETTING HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH
LIKE THE GFS. WE WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
ACROSS THE AREA AS BOTH ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE MVFR CEILINGS NEAR THE COAST AROUND 0530Z SHOULD DRIFT OUT TO
SEA BY 0700Z OR 0800Z. MEANWHILE, MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAY AFFECT KRDG AND KABE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE AT
KTTN AND KMIV EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT AT OUR TAF SITES WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF STRATOCUMULUS OVERHEAD DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH BASES
ABOVE 4000 FEET.

A RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS SHOULD FAVOR THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NW ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. AS A RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON DELAWARE BAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM,
MAINLY FOR SEAS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...STAFF








000
FXUS61 KPHI 270550
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1250 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF CAPE COD AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND IT SHOULD REACH NOVA SCOTIA AROUND DAYBREAK.

THE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE SLOWLY DURING THE
NIGHT AS THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND BRINGS DRY AIR
INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ONLY A FEW
DEGREES FROM THEIR MIDNIGHT VALUES WITH LOWS FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 30S IN
THE SOUTH.

LIGHT SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN EXTREME EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
IN NEW JERSEY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM
OF SNOW IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND IT WAS RAIN
ELSEWHERE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND
OUT OF OUR REGION BEFORE DAYBREAK. LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT IS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. THE
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NJ
COAST AND THROUGH THE DELMARVA. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BLUE
RIDGE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS LOW WOULD THEN MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST OFF THE NC COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS
NORTH OF THIS LOW MAY BRUSH THE DELMARVA DURING THE DAY. BOUNDARY
LAYER THERMAL PROFILES MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A SNOW PERHAPS
MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 40F.

OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS, GIVING US HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM I-95 WEST AND LOWER 40S TO
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT MAY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AREAS. THEY WOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED, SO WE ONLY CARRY 20
POPS.

ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST,
BEFORE SQUEEZING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT
WE WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES WHERE THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME
MOISTURE. ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE
GFS IS FAST THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN, AND DRIES THE PRECIP OUT
SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN, BUT UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS SOME
LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS, WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS WHERE THE PRECIP WOULD IMPACT FIRST BEFORE DRYING OUT.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP THAT
LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IF THE FRONT STALLS CLOSER TO
THE AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND
NEXT WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER THE FRONT
SURGES THROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF, OR GETTING HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH
LIKE THE GFS. WE WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
ACROSS THE AREA AS BOTH ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE MVFR CEILINGS NEAR THE COAST AROUND 0530Z SHOULD DRIFT OUT TO
SEA BY 0700Z OR 0800Z. MEANWHILE, MVFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS MAY AFFECT KRDG AND KABE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE AT
KTTN AND KMIV EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT AT OUR TAF SITES WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF STRATOCUMULUS OVERHEAD DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH BASES
ABOVE 4000 FEET.

A RELATIVELY LIGHT WEST NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS SHOULD FAVOR THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NW ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. AS A RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON DELAWARE BAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM,
MAINLY FOR SEAS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES
LATE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...STAFF







000
FXUS61 KPHI 270246
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MANY THANKS FOR THE REPORTS TODAY. IT WAS A BUSY TRAVEL DAY FOR
MANY AND WE APPRECIATE THE SKYWARN NETS, THE SPECIAL COCORAHS REPORTS
AS WELL AS ALL THE INFORMATION ON SOCIAL MEDIA. HAVE A MUCH
QUIETER AND HAPPY THANKSGIVING TOMORROW!

WITHOUT MUCH TO BLOCK IT, THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS
QUICKLY REACHED THE WATERS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET. FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING IS NOW NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA AND WHAT PRECIPITATION IS LEFT
IS BECOMING VERY LIGHT. THE BANDED PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH
NEW JERSEY HAS HAD THE OPPOSITE OF EXPECTED AFFECTS AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AND VSBYS IMPROVED AS IT MOVED THROUGH. AS
IT PASSED OUR OFFICE IT WAS AS IF THE RAIN DROPS WERE TRYING TO
FREEZE, BUT COULDNT.

WITH VSBYS THREE MILES OR GREATER WHERE SNOW IS STILL FALLING,
WE WILL LET ALL WINTER RELATED HEADLINES EXPIRE AT 10 PM.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING IN MANY
AREAS, SO ANY TRAVEL OVERNIGHT BE WARY ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ICY SPOTS DEVELOPING ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS, PARKING LOTS AND
SIDEWALKS. TO THE NORTHWEST THE SNOW AND SLUSH SHOULD FREEZE, TO THE
SOUTHEAST NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT AOB FREEZING MINS, BUT THERE IS
PLENTY OF STANDING WATER AROUND.

PROPS TO THE ECMWF THAT HAD THIS GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM AFFECTING
US THE LONGEST INTO THE LONG TERM, IT ALSO HAD A WARMER SOLUTION
THAT THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB TRENDED TOWARD. PTYPE A BLEND OF THE WRF
AND GFS WORKED BEST AS WE CLOSED IN WITHIN OUR CWA. WE SAW SNOW AT
SOME MIGHTY HIGH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES (AT LEAST 549DM), MOST OF
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OCCURRED AT THICKNESSES LESS THAN 546DM. AS
MY PREDECESSOR INDICATED, THE SOUNDING AROUND PHL WAS NEARLY
ISOTHERMAL FROM 700MB DOWNWARD, A RARE THERMAL EVENT INDEED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT IS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. THE TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NJ COAST AND
THROUGH THE DELMARVA. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS LOW WOULD THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OFF THE NC
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THIS LOW MAY
BRUSH THE DELMARVA DURING THE DAY. BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A SNOW PERHAPS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN BUT
NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 40F.

OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS, GIVING US HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM I-95 WEST AND LOWER 40S TO
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT MAY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS. THEY WOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED, SO WE ONLY CARRY 20 POPS.

ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST,
BEFORE SQUEEZING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT WE
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
WHERE THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE.
ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE GFS
IS FAST THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN, AND DRIES THE PRECIP OUT
SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN, BUT UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS, WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE
THE PRECIP WOULD IMPACT FIRST BEFORE DRYING OUT.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP THAT
LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IF THE FRONT STALLS CLOSER TO THE
AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER THE FRONT SURGES
THROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF, OR GETTING HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH LIKE THE
GFS. WE WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA AS BOTH ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR. LATER THIS EVENING WE SHOULD SEE
THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANGE
OVER TO A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AS WELL WHICH SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE
CONDITIONS A BIT...WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATE.

TOMORROW...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT ILG/MIV/ACY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NW ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL BE CHANGED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE DELAWARE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
CARRIED FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. ON THE OCEAN, IT WILL BECOME THE SEAS
THAT WILL BE DRIVER FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 270246
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT,
BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MANY THANKS FOR THE REPORTS TODAY. IT WAS A BUSY TRAVEL DAY FOR
MANY AND WE APPRECIATE THE SKYWARN NETS, THE SPECIAL COCORAHS REPORTS
AS WELL AS ALL THE INFORMATION ON SOCIAL MEDIA. HAVE A MUCH
QUIETER AND HAPPY THANKSGIVING TOMORROW!

WITHOUT MUCH TO BLOCK IT, THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS
QUICKLY REACHED THE WATERS SOUTH OF NANTUCKET. FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING IS NOW NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA AND WHAT PRECIPITATION IS LEFT
IS BECOMING VERY LIGHT. THE BANDED PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH
NEW JERSEY HAS HAD THE OPPOSITE OF EXPECTED AFFECTS AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN AND VSBYS IMPROVED AS IT MOVED THROUGH. AS
IT PASSED OUR OFFICE IT WAS AS IF THE RAIN DROPS WERE TRYING TO
FREEZE, BUT COULDNT.

WITH VSBYS THREE MILES OR GREATER WHERE SNOW IS STILL FALLING,
WE WILL LET ALL WINTER RELATED HEADLINES EXPIRE AT 10 PM.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING IN MANY
AREAS, SO ANY TRAVEL OVERNIGHT BE WARY ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ICY SPOTS DEVELOPING ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS, PARKING LOTS AND
SIDEWALKS. TO THE NORTHWEST THE SNOW AND SLUSH SHOULD FREEZE, TO THE
SOUTHEAST NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT AOB FREEZING MINS, BUT THERE IS
PLENTY OF STANDING WATER AROUND.

PROPS TO THE ECMWF THAT HAD THIS GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM AFFECTING
US THE LONGEST INTO THE LONG TERM, IT ALSO HAD A WARMER SOLUTION
THAT THE GFS AND WRF-NMMB TRENDED TOWARD. PTYPE A BLEND OF THE WRF
AND GFS WORKED BEST AS WE CLOSED IN WITHIN OUR CWA. WE SAW SNOW AT
SOME MIGHTY HIGH 1000-500MB THICKNESSES (AT LEAST 549DM), MOST OF
THE ACCUMULATING SNOW OCCURRED AT THICKNESSES LESS THAN 546DM. AS
MY PREDECESSOR INDICATED, THE SOUNDING AROUND PHL WAS NEARLY
ISOTHERMAL FROM 700MB DOWNWARD, A RARE THERMAL EVENT INDEED.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT IS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. THE TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NJ COAST AND
THROUGH THE DELMARVA. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS LOW WOULD THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OFF THE NC
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THIS LOW MAY
BRUSH THE DELMARVA DURING THE DAY. BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A SNOW PERHAPS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN BUT
NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 40F.

OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS, GIVING US HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM I-95 WEST AND LOWER 40S TO
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT MAY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS. THEY WOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED, SO WE ONLY CARRY 20 POPS.

ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST,
BEFORE SQUEEZING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT WE
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
WHERE THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE.
ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE GFS
IS FAST THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN, AND DRIES THE PRECIP OUT
SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN, BUT UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS, WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE
THE PRECIP WOULD IMPACT FIRST BEFORE DRYING OUT.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP THAT
LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IF THE FRONT STALLS CLOSER TO THE
AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER THE FRONT SURGES
THROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF, OR GETTING HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH LIKE THE
GFS. WE WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA AS BOTH ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR. LATER THIS EVENING WE SHOULD SEE
THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO
OUR NORTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANGE
OVER TO A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AS WELL WHICH SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE
CONDITIONS A BIT...WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST LATE.

TOMORROW...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT ILG/MIV/ACY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NW ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNINGS WILL BE CHANGED TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE DELAWARE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
CARRIED FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. ON THE OCEAN, IT WILL BECOME THE SEAS
THAT WILL BE DRIVER FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 262325
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
625 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE 23Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
WAS EAST OF TEXAS TOWER AND PROBABLY NEAR 997 MB. THE COASTAL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS IT MOVES
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD, PASSING JUST EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND CAPE
COD THIS EVENING.

THERE IS ONE LAST FGEN BAND THAT IS WORKING THROUGH OUR CWA. WE
UPPED POPS IN THE NEAR TERM REFLECTING THIS. OUR CWA IS LOSING
MOISTURE ABOVE 10000 TO 15000 AS MID LEVEL DRYING IS WORKING INTO
OUR CWA. WHERE IT IS SNOWING, THE SNOW IS MAINLY RIME OR NEEDLES
AS THE DENDRITIC OMEGA IS ALSO GONE. ACROSS PARTS OF NJ AND DE,
THE DRY AIR IS DEEPER AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING NO ICE
FOR SNOW. SOME OF THE ASOS SNOW OBSERVATIONS SOUTHEASTERN CWA (AS
OUR OFFICE WITH VAY) MAY BE DUE TO THE SMALL WATER DROPLET SIZE.

THUS, MODEL QPF WHICH ARE MODEST FOR THE EVENING LOOK OK. THE HRRR
HAS THIS BANDED AREA PRECIPITATING ITSELF OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND BASED ON THE FORMATION OF THE TROWAL OVER NY STATE
AND THE DEPARTURE OF ANY QVEC OR FGEN FORCING LOOK REASONABLE.

WITH THE LAST BAND EXITING NRN DELMARVA, WE ARE CANCELING THAT
ADVISORY. WE WILL LEAVE OTHER HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR THIS FINAL
BAND.

WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL WINTER HEADLINES FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH A FEW HOURS EARLIER. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR MAY EVEN
RISE A BIT THIS EVENING ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT IS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. THE TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NJ COAST AND
THROUGH THE DELMARVA. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS LOW WOULD THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OFF THE NC
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THIS LOW MAY
BRUSH THE DELMARVA DURING THE DAY. BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A SNOW PERHAPS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN BUT
NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 40F.

OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS, GIVING US HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM I-95 WEST AND LOWER 40S TO
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT MAY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS. THEY WOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED, SO WE ONLY CARRY 20 POPS.

ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST,
BEFORE SQUEEZING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT WE
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
WHERE THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE.
ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE GFS
IS FAST THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN, AND DRIES THE PRECIP OUT
SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN, BUT UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS, WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE
THE PRECIP WOULD IMPACT FIRST BEFORE DRYING OUT.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP THAT
LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IF THE FRONT STALLS CLOSER TO THE
AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER THE FRONT SURGES
THROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF, OR GETTING HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH LIKE THE
GFS. WE WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA AS BOTH ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - THIS EVENING...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES. RDG AND ABE WILL BE
THE ONLY SITES TO REMAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WHILE
ILG/PHL/TTN/PNE WILL BOUNCE AROUND QUITE A BIT BETWEEN
RAIN/SNOW...ACY/MIV SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN. EXPECTING A HEAVIER
BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR,
THOUGH IT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS,
UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS, ARE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...IFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR LATE. LATER THIS
EVENING WE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANGE OVER TO A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AS WELL
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS A BIT...WINDS BACK TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST LATE.

TOMORROW...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT ILG/MIV/ACY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NW ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH 10 PM
WITH WINDS 30-35 KT. INCREASED SEAS TO 7-12 FT AS WELL. BUOY 44009 IS
REPORTING 11 FT WAVES. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF ATLANTIC WATERS IF A GRAVITY WAVE MOVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE
5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THUS, ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW
GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 262325
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
625 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE 23Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
WAS EAST OF TEXAS TOWER AND PROBABLY NEAR 997 MB. THE COASTAL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS IT MOVES
QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD, PASSING JUST EAST OF LONG ISLAND AND CAPE
COD THIS EVENING.

THERE IS ONE LAST FGEN BAND THAT IS WORKING THROUGH OUR CWA. WE
UPPED POPS IN THE NEAR TERM REFLECTING THIS. OUR CWA IS LOSING
MOISTURE ABOVE 10000 TO 15000 AS MID LEVEL DRYING IS WORKING INTO
OUR CWA. WHERE IT IS SNOWING, THE SNOW IS MAINLY RIME OR NEEDLES
AS THE DENDRITIC OMEGA IS ALSO GONE. ACROSS PARTS OF NJ AND DE,
THE DRY AIR IS DEEPER AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING NO ICE
FOR SNOW. SOME OF THE ASOS SNOW OBSERVATIONS SOUTHEASTERN CWA (AS
OUR OFFICE WITH VAY) MAY BE DUE TO THE SMALL WATER DROPLET SIZE.

THUS, MODEL QPF WHICH ARE MODEST FOR THE EVENING LOOK OK. THE HRRR
HAS THIS BANDED AREA PRECIPITATING ITSELF OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND BASED ON THE FORMATION OF THE TROWAL OVER NY STATE
AND THE DEPARTURE OF ANY QVEC OR FGEN FORCING LOOK REASONABLE.

WITH THE LAST BAND EXITING NRN DELMARVA, WE ARE CANCELING THAT
ADVISORY. WE WILL LEAVE OTHER HEADLINES IN PLACE FOR THIS FINAL
BAND.

WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL WINTER HEADLINES FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH A FEW HOURS EARLIER. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR MAY EVEN
RISE A BIT THIS EVENING ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT IS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. THE TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NJ COAST AND
THROUGH THE DELMARVA. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS LOW WOULD THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OFF THE NC
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THIS LOW MAY
BRUSH THE DELMARVA DURING THE DAY. BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A SNOW PERHAPS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN BUT
NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 40F.

OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS, GIVING US HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM I-95 WEST AND LOWER 40S TO
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT MAY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS. THEY WOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED, SO WE ONLY CARRY 20 POPS.

ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST,
BEFORE SQUEEZING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT WE
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
WHERE THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE.
ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE GFS
IS FAST THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN, AND DRIES THE PRECIP OUT
SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN, BUT UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS, WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE
THE PRECIP WOULD IMPACT FIRST BEFORE DRYING OUT.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP THAT
LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IF THE FRONT STALLS CLOSER TO THE
AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER THE FRONT SURGES
THROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF, OR GETTING HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH LIKE THE
GFS. WE WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA AS BOTH ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - THIS EVENING...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES. RDG AND ABE WILL BE
THE ONLY SITES TO REMAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WHILE
ILG/PHL/TTN/PNE WILL BOUNCE AROUND QUITE A BIT BETWEEN
RAIN/SNOW...ACY/MIV SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN. EXPECTING A HEAVIER
BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR,
THOUGH IT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS,
UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS, ARE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...IFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR LATE. LATER THIS
EVENING WE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANGE OVER TO A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AS WELL
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS A BIT...WINDS BACK TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST LATE.

TOMORROW...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT ILG/MIV/ACY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NW ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH 10 PM
WITH WINDS 30-35 KT. INCREASED SEAS TO 7-12 FT AS WELL. BUOY 44009 IS
REPORTING 11 FT WAVES. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF ATLANTIC WATERS IF A GRAVITY WAVE MOVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE
5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THUS, ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW
GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 262105
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE 20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE LOW WAS
AROUND 1000 MB ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA COAST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AS IT MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD, PASSING JUST EAST OF LONG ISLAND
AND CAPE COD THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD PRECIP CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR
TRENDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATES LIGHTER PRECIP RATES,
WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SNOW CHANGING BACK OVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE
GREATER I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS IS ALSO IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WARM NOSE
IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE MID-LEVEL
LOW. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE ALREADY CUT DOWN FOR THESE I-95 ZONES,
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM. WE
EXPECT LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THESE AREAS, LIMITING THE TRAVEL ISSUES. IT IS A DIFFERENT STORY
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ, WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 10 PM. WE
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS OF 4-8 INCHES IN THESE AREAS, WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE. CURRENT FORECAST AMOUNTS AREA WIDE
MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE, BUT DID NOT WANT TO CUT DOWN ON
TOTALS TOO MUCH WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND YET TO MOVE THROUGH.

WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL WINTER HEADLINES FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH A FEW HOURS EARLIER. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR MAY EVEN
RISE A BIT THIS EVENING ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT IS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. THE TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NJ COAST AND
THROUGH THE DELMARVA. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS LOW WOULD THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OFF THE NC
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THIS LOW MAY
BRUSH THE DELMARVA DURING THE DAY. BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A SNOW PERHAPS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN BUT
NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 40F.

OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS, GIVING US HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM I-95 WEST AND LOWER 40S TO
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT MAY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS. THEY WOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED, SO WE ONLY CARRY 20 POPS.

ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST,
BEFORE SQUEEZING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT WE
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
WHERE THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE.
ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE GFS
IS FAST THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN, AND DRIES THE PRECIP OUT
SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN, BUT UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS, WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE
THE PRECIP WOULD IMPACT FIRST BEFORE DRYING OUT.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP THAT
LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IF THE FRONT STALLS CLOSER TO THE
AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER THE FRONT SURGES
THROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF, OR GETTING HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH LIKE THE
GFS. WE WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA AS BOTH ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - THIS EVENING...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES. RDG AND ABE WILL BE
THE ONLY SITES TO REMAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WHILE
ILG/PHL/TTN/PNE WILL BOUNCE AROUND QUITE A BIT BETWEEN
RAIN/SNOW...ACY/MIV SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN. EXPECTING A HEAVIER
BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR,
THOUGH IT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS,
UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS, ARE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...IFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR LATE. LATER THIS
EVENING WE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANGE OVER TO A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AS WELL
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS A BIT...WINDS BACK TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST LATE.

TOMORROW...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT ILG/MIV/ACY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NW ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH 10 PM
WITH WINDS 30-35 KT. INCREASED SEAS TO 7-12 FT AS WELL. BUOY 44009 IS
REPORTING 11 FT WAVES. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF ATLANTIC WATERS IF A GRAVITY WAVE MOVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE
5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THUS, ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW
GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 262105
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FRONTAL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE 20Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE LOW WAS
AROUND 1000 MB ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA COAST.
THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AS IT MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD, PASSING JUST EAST OF LONG ISLAND
AND CAPE COD THIS EVENING.

WIDESPREAD PRECIP CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR
TRENDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS INDICATES LIGHTER PRECIP RATES,
WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SNOW CHANGING BACK OVER TO RAIN ACROSS THE
GREATER I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS IS ALSO IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WARM NOSE
IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER TO THE EAST OF THE TRACK OF THE MID-LEVEL
LOW. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE ALREADY CUT DOWN FOR THESE I-95 ZONES,
WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 PM. WE
EXPECT LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THESE AREAS, LIMITING THE TRAVEL ISSUES. IT IS A DIFFERENT STORY
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ, WHERE A WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 10 PM. WE
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED REPORTS OF 4-8 INCHES IN THESE AREAS, WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE. CURRENT FORECAST AMOUNTS AREA WIDE
MAY BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE, BUT DID NOT WANT TO CUT DOWN ON
TOTALS TOO MUCH WITH THE DEFORMATION BAND YET TO MOVE THROUGH.

WE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL WINTER HEADLINES FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH A FEW HOURS EARLIER. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR MAY EVEN
RISE A BIT THIS EVENING ONCE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT IS IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY. THE TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NJ COAST AND
THROUGH THE DELMARVA. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS
BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS LOW WOULD THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST OFF THE NC
COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF THIS LOW MAY
BRUSH THE DELMARVA DURING THE DAY. BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL PROFILES
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A SNOW PERHAPS MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN BUT
NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 40F.

OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST STATES. USED A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS, GIVING US HIGHS IN THE 30S FROM I-95 WEST AND LOWER 40S TO
THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT MAY MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
AREAS. THEY WOULD BE QUITE ISOLATED, SO WE ONLY CARRY 20 POPS.

ON FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST,
BEFORE SQUEEZING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES, BUT WE
WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
WHERE THEY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME MOISTURE.
ANYTHING THAT WOULD FALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
AND MOISTURE PLUME ALOFT SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY, SO THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THIS BOUNDARY AS THE GFS
IS FAST THAN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN, AND DRIES THE PRECIP OUT
SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN, BUT UNLIKE THE ECMWF WHICH KEEPS SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS, WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE
THE PRECIP WOULD IMPACT FIRST BEFORE DRYING OUT.

THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH TO OUR SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PRECIP THAT
LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IF THE FRONT STALLS CLOSER TO THE
AREA.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND NEXT
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER THE FRONT SURGES
THROUGH LIKE THE ECMWF, OR GETTING HUNG UP TO OUR NORTH LIKE THE
GFS. WE WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA AS BOTH ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - THIS EVENING...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES. RDG AND ABE WILL BE
THE ONLY SITES TO REMAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WHILE
ILG/PHL/TTN/PNE WILL BOUNCE AROUND QUITE A BIT BETWEEN
RAIN/SNOW...ACY/MIV SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN. EXPECTING A HEAVIER
BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR,
THOUGH IT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS,
UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS, ARE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...IFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR LATE. LATER THIS
EVENING WE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANGE OVER TO A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AS WELL
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS A BIT...WINDS BACK TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST LATE.

TOMORROW...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT ILG/MIV/ACY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY, AND NW ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH 10 PM
WITH WINDS 30-35 KT. INCREASED SEAS TO 7-12 FT AS WELL. BUOY 44009 IS
REPORTING 11 FT WAVES. THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR EASTERN PART
OF ATLANTIC WATERS IF A GRAVITY WAVE MOVES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST.

WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE
5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THUS, ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW
GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 261826
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
126 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1140 AM UPDATE...ADDED NEW CASTLE AND CECIL COUNTIES IN A WINTER WX
ADVISORY. WE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
ALREADY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THESE COUNTIES, WHERE THE LATEST MESONET
OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. ALSO ADDED THUNDER FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PA, THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHWEST NJ WITH WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ORIGINATING FROM THE 600 MB WARM NOSE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES REPORTED WITHIN THE LAST FEW MINUTES.

OTHERWISE, WINTER HEADLINES AND FORECAST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. DID ADJUST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UPWARD ACROSS THE RIDGES ABOVE 500 FT FROM WESTERN
CHESTER UP TO NORTHWEST NJ AS SNOWFALL RATIOS INCREASE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTERBANKS OF NC. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL
STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS POSITIONED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS PINPOINTING THE ADVERSE IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM ON TYPICALLY ONE OF THE BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. THE IMPACTS WILL BE TIED TO PTYPES AND
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM NW TO SE NEAR THE I-95 TRAVEL ARTERY TODAY.

AS OF 10 AM, THE RAIN-SNOW LINE HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHESTER, MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES IN PA AS
WELL AS HUNTERDON AND MORRIS COUNTIES IN NJ. WE JUST RECEIVED A
SNOWFALL REPORT AT MOUNT POCONO OF 2.6 INCHES. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE COVERED UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECASTS.

SIDED CLOSER WITH THE COOLER THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE 12Z NAM FOR
TIMING THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. EXPECT THE RAIN-SNOW LINE
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THRU THE WESTERN SUBURBS
OF PHILLY AND WEST-CENTRAL NJ THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THESE TIER OF ZONES TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

THE FORECAST GETS EVEN MORE TRICKY FARTHER EAST TOWARD I-95 AS A
700-600 MB WARM LAYER MAY YIELD MORE OF A WINTRY MIX (RAIN/SNOW/
SLEET) IN PHILLY AND ESPECIALLY ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN SUBURBS AS
WELL AS THE I-195 CENTRAL NJ CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MIXING AS WELL AS ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
SNOW TOTALS DRASTICALLY. THE ONLY EDITS TO THE SNOWFALL GRIDS,
WHICH WERE OVERALL MINOR, WERE TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - THIS EVENING...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES. RDG AND ABE WILL BE
THE ONLY SITES TO REMAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WHILE
ILG/PHL/TTN/PNE WILL BOUNCE AROUND QUITE A BIT BETWEEN
RAIN/SNOW...ACY/MIV SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN. EXPECTING A HEAVIER
BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR,
THOUGH IT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS,
UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS, ARE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...IFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR LATE. LATER THIS
EVENING WE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANGE OVER TO A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AS WELL
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS A BIT...WINDS BACK TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST LATE.

TOMORROW...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT ILG/MIV/ACY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
THUS, ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAY`S HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...HEAVENER/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 261826
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
126 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1140 AM UPDATE...ADDED NEW CASTLE AND CECIL COUNTIES IN A WINTER WX
ADVISORY. WE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
ALREADY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THESE COUNTIES, WHERE THE LATEST MESONET
OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. ALSO ADDED THUNDER FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PA, THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHWEST NJ WITH WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ORIGINATING FROM THE 600 MB WARM NOSE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES REPORTED WITHIN THE LAST FEW MINUTES.

OTHERWISE, WINTER HEADLINES AND FORECAST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. DID ADJUST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UPWARD ACROSS THE RIDGES ABOVE 500 FT FROM WESTERN
CHESTER UP TO NORTHWEST NJ AS SNOWFALL RATIOS INCREASE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTERBANKS OF NC. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL
STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS POSITIONED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS PINPOINTING THE ADVERSE IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM ON TYPICALLY ONE OF THE BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. THE IMPACTS WILL BE TIED TO PTYPES AND
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM NW TO SE NEAR THE I-95 TRAVEL ARTERY TODAY.

AS OF 10 AM, THE RAIN-SNOW LINE HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHESTER, MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES IN PA AS
WELL AS HUNTERDON AND MORRIS COUNTIES IN NJ. WE JUST RECEIVED A
SNOWFALL REPORT AT MOUNT POCONO OF 2.6 INCHES. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE COVERED UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECASTS.

SIDED CLOSER WITH THE COOLER THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE 12Z NAM FOR
TIMING THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. EXPECT THE RAIN-SNOW LINE
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THRU THE WESTERN SUBURBS
OF PHILLY AND WEST-CENTRAL NJ THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THESE TIER OF ZONES TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

THE FORECAST GETS EVEN MORE TRICKY FARTHER EAST TOWARD I-95 AS A
700-600 MB WARM LAYER MAY YIELD MORE OF A WINTRY MIX (RAIN/SNOW/
SLEET) IN PHILLY AND ESPECIALLY ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN SUBURBS AS
WELL AS THE I-195 CENTRAL NJ CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MIXING AS WELL AS ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
SNOW TOTALS DRASTICALLY. THE ONLY EDITS TO THE SNOWFALL GRIDS,
WHICH WERE OVERALL MINOR, WERE TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - THIS EVENING...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES. RDG AND ABE WILL BE
THE ONLY SITES TO REMAIN SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WHILE
ILG/PHL/TTN/PNE WILL BOUNCE AROUND QUITE A BIT BETWEEN
RAIN/SNOW...ACY/MIV SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY RAIN. EXPECTING A HEAVIER
BAND OF PRECIPITATION TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW UP THE I-95 CORRIDOR,
THOUGH IT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS,
UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS, ARE EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...IFR TRENDING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR LATE. LATER THIS
EVENING WE SHOULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE
COULD SEE ANOTHER CHANGE OVER TO A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AS WELL
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS A BIT...WINDS BACK TOWARDS
THE NORTHWEST LATE.

TOMORROW...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AT ILG/MIV/ACY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
THUS, ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAY`S HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...HEAVENER/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 261653
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1153 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1140 AM UPDATE...ADDED NEW CASTLE AND CECIL COUNTIES IN A WINTER WX
ADVISORY. WE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
ALREADY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THESE COUNTIES, WHERE THE LATEST MESONET
OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. ALSO ADDED THUNDER FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PA, THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHWEST NJ WITH WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ORIGINATING FROM THE 600 MB WARM NOSE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES REPORTED WITHIN THE LAST FEW MINUTES.

OTHERWISE, WINTER HEADLINES AND FORECAST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. DID ADJUST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UPWARD ACROSS THE RIDGES ABOVE 500 FT FROM WESTERN
CHESTER UP TO NORTHWEST NJ AS SNOWFALL RATIOS INCREASE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTERBANKS OF NC. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL
STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS POSITIONED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS PINPOINTING THE ADVERSE IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM ON TYPICALLY ONE OF THE BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. THE IMPACTS WILL BE TIED TO PTYPES AND
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM NW TO SE NEAR THE I-95 TRAVEL ARTERY TODAY.

AS OF 10 AM, THE RAIN-SNOW LINE HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHESTER, MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES IN PA AS
WELL AS HUNTERDON AND MORRIS COUNTIES IN NJ. WE JUST RECEIVED A
SNOWFALL REPORT AT MOUNT POCONO OF 2.6 INCHES. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE COVERED UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECASTS.

SIDED CLOSER WITH THE COOLER THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE 12Z NAM FOR
TIMING THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. EXPECT THE RAIN-SNOW LINE
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THRU THE WESTERN SUBURBS
OF PHILLY AND WEST-CENTRAL NJ THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THESE TIER OF ZONES TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

THE FORECAST GETS EVEN MORE TRICKY FARTHER EAST TOWARD I-95 AS A
700-600 MB WARM LAYER MAY YIELD MORE OF A WINTRY MIX (RAIN/SNOW/
SLEET) IN PHILLY AND ESPECIALLY ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN SUBURBS AS
WELL AS THE I-195 CENTRAL NJ CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MIXING AS WELL AS ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
SNOW TOTALS DRASTICALLY. THE ONLY EDITS TO THE SNOWFALL GRIDS,
WHICH WERE OVERALL MINOR, WERE TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CIGS AND VSBS HAVE ALREADY LOWERED TO IFR ACROSS ALL THE
TERMINALS. LIFR VSBYS ARE OCCURRING AT ABE/TTN WHERE THE RAIN HAS
CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AND IS MODERATE. A TRANSITION TO SN HAS
ALSO OCCURRED AT PNE/RDG/ILG WHILE A MIX OF RA/SN/PL IS OCCURRING
AT PHL. PRECIP MAY CHANGE BACK TO A RA/SN/PL MIX BETWEEN 18Z-00Z
FOR THE I-95 TERMINALS AS A WARM LAYER MOVES IN ALOFT. IFR/LIFR
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 23-01Z AS THE HEAVIER AND
STEADIER PRECIP SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TERMINALS.

EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT, MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER.
IN ADDITION, AT LEAST ONE MODEL (THE GFS) SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING THROUGH 12Z FOR KMIV AND KACY, SUGGESTING
THAT BR COULD LINGER WELL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT. IN
GENERAL, HOWEVER, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM 00 TO
12Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
THUS, ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAY`S HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 261653
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1153 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1140 AM UPDATE...ADDED NEW CASTLE AND CECIL COUNTIES IN A WINTER WX
ADVISORY. WE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
ALREADY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF THESE COUNTIES, WHERE THE LATEST MESONET
OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPS NEAR FREEZING. ALSO ADDED THUNDER FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PA, THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHWEST NJ WITH WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ORIGINATING FROM THE 600 MB WARM NOSE. THERE HAVE BEEN
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES REPORTED WITHIN THE LAST FEW MINUTES.

OTHERWISE, WINTER HEADLINES AND FORECAST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE. DID ADJUST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UPWARD ACROSS THE RIDGES ABOVE 500 FT FROM WESTERN
CHESTER UP TO NORTHWEST NJ AS SNOWFALL RATIOS INCREASE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTERBANKS OF NC. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL
STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS POSITIONED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS PINPOINTING THE ADVERSE IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM ON TYPICALLY ONE OF THE BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. THE IMPACTS WILL BE TIED TO PTYPES AND
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM NW TO SE NEAR THE I-95 TRAVEL ARTERY TODAY.

AS OF 10 AM, THE RAIN-SNOW LINE HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHESTER, MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES IN PA AS
WELL AS HUNTERDON AND MORRIS COUNTIES IN NJ. WE JUST RECEIVED A
SNOWFALL REPORT AT MOUNT POCONO OF 2.6 INCHES. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE COVERED UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECASTS.

SIDED CLOSER WITH THE COOLER THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE 12Z NAM FOR
TIMING THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. EXPECT THE RAIN-SNOW LINE
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THRU THE WESTERN SUBURBS
OF PHILLY AND WEST-CENTRAL NJ THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THESE TIER OF ZONES TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

THE FORECAST GETS EVEN MORE TRICKY FARTHER EAST TOWARD I-95 AS A
700-600 MB WARM LAYER MAY YIELD MORE OF A WINTRY MIX (RAIN/SNOW/
SLEET) IN PHILLY AND ESPECIALLY ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN SUBURBS AS
WELL AS THE I-195 CENTRAL NJ CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MIXING AS WELL AS ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
SNOW TOTALS DRASTICALLY. THE ONLY EDITS TO THE SNOWFALL GRIDS,
WHICH WERE OVERALL MINOR, WERE TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CIGS AND VSBS HAVE ALREADY LOWERED TO IFR ACROSS ALL THE
TERMINALS. LIFR VSBYS ARE OCCURRING AT ABE/TTN WHERE THE RAIN HAS
CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AND IS MODERATE. A TRANSITION TO SN HAS
ALSO OCCURRED AT PNE/RDG/ILG WHILE A MIX OF RA/SN/PL IS OCCURRING
AT PHL. PRECIP MAY CHANGE BACK TO A RA/SN/PL MIX BETWEEN 18Z-00Z
FOR THE I-95 TERMINALS AS A WARM LAYER MOVES IN ALOFT. IFR/LIFR
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 23-01Z AS THE HEAVIER AND
STEADIER PRECIP SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TERMINALS.

EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT, MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER.
IN ADDITION, AT LEAST ONE MODEL (THE GFS) SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING THROUGH 12Z FOR KMIV AND KACY, SUGGESTING
THAT BR COULD LINGER WELL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT. IN
GENERAL, HOWEVER, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM 00 TO
12Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
THUS, ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAY`S HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MDZ008.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 261530
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1030 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL, CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES AND FORECAST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE.

15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
OUTERBANKS OF NC. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS
POSITIONED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS PINPOINTING THE ADVERSE IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM ON TYPICALLY ONE OF THE BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. THE IMPACTS WILL BE TIED TO PTYPES AND
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM NW TO SE NEAR THE I-95 TRAVEL ARTERY TODAY.

AS OF 10 AM, THE RAIN-SNOW LINE HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHESTER, MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES IN PA AS
WELL AS HUNTERDON AND MORRIS COUNTIES IN NJ. WE JUST RECIEVED A
SNOWFALL REPORT AT MOUNT POCONO OF 2.6 INCHES. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE COVERED UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECASTS.

SIDED CLOSER WITH THE COOLER THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE 12Z NAM FOR
TIMING THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. EXPECT THE RAIN-SNOW LINE
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THRU THE WESTERN SUBURBS
OF PHILLY AND WEST-CENTRAL NJ THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THESE TIER OF ZONES TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

THE FORECAST GETS EVEN MORE TRICKY FARTHER EAST TOWARD I-95 AS A
700-600 MB WARM LAYER MAY YIELD MORE OF A WINTRY MIX (RAIN/SNOW/
SLEET) IN PHILLY AND ESPECIALLY ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN SUBURBS AS
WELL AS THE I-195 CENTRAL NJ CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MIXING AS WELL AS ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
SNOW TOTALS DRASTICALLY. THE ONLY EDITS TO THE SNOWFALL GRIDS,
WHICH WERE OVERALL MINOR, WERE TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CIGS AND VSBS HAVE ALREADY LOWERED TO IFR ACROSS ALL THE
TERMINALS. LIFR VSBYS ARE OCCURRING AT ABE WHERE RA HAS CHANGED
OVER TO SN. EXPECT THE CHANGEOVER FROM RA TO SN TO OCCUR AROUND
16Z AT RDG. THE CHANGEOVER FROM RA TO SN MAY BE DELAYED BY A FEW
HOURS IN PHL/ILG (DURING THE 18-21Z PERIOD). THERE MAY EVEN BE A
RA/SN/IP MIX FOR A FEW HOURS AS WELL. IFR/LIFR EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 23-01Z AS THE HEAVIER AND STEADIER PRECIP
SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TERMINALS.

HEAVIER SNOW BANDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ABE AND RDG BETWEEN 16 AND
00Z, WITH VISIBILITIES OCCASIONALLY NEAR 1/2SM AND CEILINGS AS
LOW AS 200 FT. HOWEVER, EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT,
MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER. IN ADDITION, AT LEAST ONE MODEL, THE
GFS, SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING THROUGH 12Z
FOR KMIV AND KACY, SUGGESTING THAT BR COULD LINGER WELL AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT. IN GENERAL, HOWEVER, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM 00 TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
THUS, ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAYS HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/MEOLA/KLEIN
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 261530
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1030 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
AND CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN FOR MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERALL, CURRENT WINTER HEADLINES AND FORECAST SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE AFTER LOOKING AT THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE.

15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE
OUTERBANKS OF NC. THIS COASTAL LOW WILL STEADILY DEEPEN AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS
POSITIONED JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT AND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS PINPOINTING THE ADVERSE IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM ON TYPICALLY ONE OF THE BUSIEST
TRAVEL DAY OF THE YEAR. THE IMPACTS WILL BE TIED TO PTYPES AND
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM NW TO SE NEAR THE I-95 TRAVEL ARTERY TODAY.

AS OF 10 AM, THE RAIN-SNOW LINE HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CHESTER, MONTGOMERY AND BUCKS COUNTIES IN PA AS
WELL AS HUNTERDON AND MORRIS COUNTIES IN NJ. WE JUST RECIEVED A
SNOWFALL REPORT AT MOUNT POCONO OF 2.6 INCHES. THESE LOCATIONS
ARE COVERED UNDER A WINTER STORM WARNING AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECASTS.

SIDED CLOSER WITH THE COOLER THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE 12Z NAM FOR
TIMING THE CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. EXPECT THE RAIN-SNOW LINE
TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THRU THE WESTERN SUBURBS
OF PHILLY AND WEST-CENTRAL NJ THROUGH MIDDAY. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THESE TIER OF ZONES TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

THE FORECAST GETS EVEN MORE TRICKY FARTHER EAST TOWARD I-95 AS A
700-600 MB WARM LAYER MAY YIELD MORE OF A WINTRY MIX (RAIN/SNOW/
SLEET) IN PHILLY AND ESPECIALLY ITS SOUTHERN/EASTERN SUBURBS AS
WELL AS THE I-195 CENTRAL NJ CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MIXING AS WELL AS ABOVE-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD CUT DOWN ON
SNOW TOTALS DRASTICALLY. THE ONLY EDITS TO THE SNOWFALL GRIDS,
WHICH WERE OVERALL MINOR, WERE TO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS EVEN FURTHER ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CIGS AND VSBS HAVE ALREADY LOWERED TO IFR ACROSS ALL THE
TERMINALS. LIFR VSBYS ARE OCCURRING AT ABE WHERE RA HAS CHANGED
OVER TO SN. EXPECT THE CHANGEOVER FROM RA TO SN TO OCCUR AROUND
16Z AT RDG. THE CHANGEOVER FROM RA TO SN MAY BE DELAYED BY A FEW
HOURS IN PHL/ILG (DURING THE 18-21Z PERIOD). THERE MAY EVEN BE A
RA/SN/IP MIX FOR A FEW HOURS AS WELL. IFR/LIFR EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 23-01Z AS THE HEAVIER AND STEADIER PRECIP
SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TERMINALS.

HEAVIER SNOW BANDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ABE AND RDG BETWEEN 16 AND
00Z, WITH VISIBILITIES OCCASIONALLY NEAR 1/2SM AND CEILINGS AS
LOW AS 200 FT. HOWEVER, EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT,
MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER. IN ADDITION, AT LEAST ONE MODEL, THE
GFS, SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING THROUGH 12Z
FOR KMIV AND KACY, SUGGESTING THAT BR COULD LINGER WELL AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT. IN GENERAL, HOWEVER, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM 00 TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
THUS, ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAYS HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/MEOLA/KLEIN
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS61 KPHI 261129
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
629 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION AND CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS, AND MAX TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. GENERALLY A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED, AND ADJUSTED MAX TO REFLECT WHAT WE EXPECT THE TEMPS TO
BE AT 12Z, AS THAT WILL LIKELY BE WHEN MOST PLACES REACH THEIR DAY
TIME HIGH, WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALLING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY. NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PRECIP TYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME AS DEW POINTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE ARE NEAR
FREEZING, THUS ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS IN THOSE AREAS, SHOULD
SEE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW RELATIVELY QUICKLY.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...HERE IT IS, THE DAY WE`VE ALL BEEN
WAITING FOR. LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE
CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKING WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE SHORE. AS FOR
THE IMPLICATIONS AND IMPACTS DUE TO THIS:

WINDS...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION, EXPECT LIMITED MIXING TO INHIBIT REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MOST LAND LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS COASTAL
AREAS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY, INCLUDING CAPE MAY AND LEWES, WHERE
THE WINDS MAY FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY LEADING TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45
MPH AROUND MID DAY. HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BE WIDESPREAD SO
HAVE NOT ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

PRECIPITATION...ALREADY STARTING TO SEE THE FIRST RAIN BANDS STREAM
THROUGH DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ, SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING, AND THEN
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE, NOT MUCH
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECT A NARROW CORRIDOR
ROUGHLY ALONG THE FALL LINE/I95 CORRIDOR DELINEATING WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT SUNRISE, SHOULD SEE THIS CORRIDOR GRADUALLY AND
SUBTLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WAS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE
00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS DEW
POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION, AFTER TWO
DAYS OF NOT SEEING IT IN ANY MODEL, GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS NOW DEPICT A
MID LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM THE I 95 CORRIDOR EAST, SUGGESTING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET. HOWEVER, HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF SLEET AT
THIS TIME AS THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET, WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN FACTOR IN THIS WARM LAYER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY FURTHER EAST
OVER AREAS THAT WILL MOSTLY SEE RAIN ANYWAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN TO SNOW CHANGE OVER,
SHOULD ALSO SEE SNOW TOTALS INCREASE QUICKLY AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST
FROM THE I 95 CORRIDOR. BEST POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTOGENESIS SNOW BAND
(AND THUS LOCALLY HIGH SNOW AMOUNTS) LOOKS TO BE A CORRIDOR FROM
ROUGHLY ABE TO JIM THORPE UP TO SUSSEX NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE BY AROUND 15Z. EXPECT ALL
SITES TO BE IFR OR LOWER BY 18Z. HEAVIER SNOW BANDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER ABE AND RDG BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z, WITH VISIBILITIES
OCCASIONALLY AS LOW AS 1/2SM AND CEILINGS AS LOW AS OVC002. FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES, EXPECT CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 800 FT
AGL BETWEEN 15 AND 21Z AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 SM. LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH +RASN AND +SN. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE OUT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. HOWEVER, EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
MOVES OUT, MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER. IN ADDITION, AT LEAST ONE
MODEL, THE GFS, SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING
THROUGH 12Z FOR KMIV AND KACY, SUGGESTING THAT BR COULD LINGER
WELL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT. IN GENERAL, HOWEVER, EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM 00 TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
NO LATER THAN MID DAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THUS,
ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAYS HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/MEOLA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 261129
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
629 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION AND CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES, DEWPOINTS, AND MAX TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. GENERALLY A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED, AND ADJUSTED MAX TO REFLECT WHAT WE EXPECT THE TEMPS TO
BE AT 12Z, AS THAT WILL LIKELY BE WHEN MOST PLACES REACH THEIR DAY
TIME HIGH, WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY FALLING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY. NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO PRECIP TYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME AS DEW POINTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE ARE NEAR
FREEZING, THUS ONCE PRECIPITATION BEGINS IN THOSE AREAS, SHOULD
SEE CHANGE OVER TO RAIN/SNOW OR ALL SNOW RELATIVELY QUICKLY.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...HERE IT IS, THE DAY WE`VE ALL BEEN
WAITING FOR. LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE
CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKING WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE SHORE. AS FOR
THE IMPLICATIONS AND IMPACTS DUE TO THIS:

WINDS...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION, EXPECT LIMITED MIXING TO INHIBIT REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MOST LAND LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS COASTAL
AREAS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY, INCLUDING CAPE MAY AND LEWES, WHERE
THE WINDS MAY FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY LEADING TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45
MPH AROUND MID DAY. HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BE WIDESPREAD SO
HAVE NOT ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

PRECIPITATION...ALREADY STARTING TO SEE THE FIRST RAIN BANDS STREAM
THROUGH DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ, SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING, AND THEN
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE, NOT MUCH
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECT A NARROW CORRIDOR
ROUGHLY ALONG THE FALL LINE/I95 CORRIDOR DELINEATING WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT SUNRISE, SHOULD SEE THIS CORRIDOR GRADUALLY AND
SUBTLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WAS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE
00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS DEW
POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION, AFTER TWO
DAYS OF NOT SEEING IT IN ANY MODEL, GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS NOW DEPICT A
MID LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM THE I 95 CORRIDOR EAST, SUGGESTING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET. HOWEVER, HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF SLEET AT
THIS TIME AS THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET, WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN FACTOR IN THIS WARM LAYER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY FURTHER EAST
OVER AREAS THAT WILL MOSTLY SEE RAIN ANYWAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN TO SNOW CHANGE OVER,
SHOULD ALSO SEE SNOW TOTALS INCREASE QUICKLY AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST
FROM THE I 95 CORRIDOR. BEST POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTOGENESIS SNOW BAND
(AND THUS LOCALLY HIGH SNOW AMOUNTS) LOOKS TO BE A CORRIDOR FROM
ROUGHLY ABE TO JIM THORPE UP TO SUSSEX NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE BY AROUND 15Z. EXPECT ALL
SITES TO BE IFR OR LOWER BY 18Z. HEAVIER SNOW BANDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER ABE AND RDG BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z, WITH VISIBILITIES
OCCASIONALLY AS LOW AS 1/2SM AND CEILINGS AS LOW AS OVC002. FOR
THE REST OF THE TAF SITES, EXPECT CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 800 FT
AGL BETWEEN 15 AND 21Z AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 SM. LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH +RASN AND +SN. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE OUT FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. HOWEVER, EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION
MOVES OUT, MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER. IN ADDITION, AT LEAST ONE
MODEL, THE GFS, SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING
THROUGH 12Z FOR KMIV AND KACY, SUGGESTING THAT BR COULD LINGER
WELL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT. IN GENERAL, HOWEVER, EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM 00 TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
NO LATER THAN MID DAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THUS,
ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAYS HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/MEOLA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 260852
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION AND CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HERE IT IS, THE DAY WE`VE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR. LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKING WITHIN 50
MILES OF THE SHORE. AS FOR THE IMPLICATIONS AND IMPACTS DUE TO THIS:

WINDS...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION, EXPECT LIMITED MIXING TO INHIBIT REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MOST LAND LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS COASTAL
AREAS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY, INCLUDING CAPE MAY AND LEWES, WHERE
THE WINDS MAY FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY LEADING TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45
MPH AROUND MID DAY. HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BE WIDESPREAD SO
HAVE NOT ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

PRECIPITATION...ALREADY STARTING TO SEE THE FIRST RAIN BANDS STREAM
THROUGH DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ, SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING, AND THEN
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE, NOT MUCH
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECT A NARROW CORRIDOR
ROUGHLY ALONG THE FALL LINE/I95 CORRIDOR DELINEATING WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT SUNRISE, SHOULD SEE THIS CORRIDOR GRADUALLY AND
SUBTLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WAS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE
00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS DEW
POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION, AFTER TWO
DAYS OF NOT SEEING IT IN ANY MODEL, GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS NOW DEPICT A
MID LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM THE I 95 CORRIDOR EAST, SUGGESTING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET. HOWEVER, HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF SLEET AT
THIS TIME AS THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET, WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN FACTOR IN THIS WARM LAYER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY FURTHER EAST
OVER AREAS THAT WILL MOSTLY SEE RAIN ANYWAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN TO SNOW CHANGE OVER,
SHOULD ALSO SEE SNOW TOTALS INCREASE QUICKLY AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST
FROM THE I 95 CORRIDOR. BEST POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTOGENESIS SNOW BAND
(AND THUS LOCALLY HIGH SNOW AMOUNTS) LOOKS TO BE A CORRIDOR FROM
ROUGHLY ABE TO JIM THORPE UP TO SUSSEX NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE IFR OR LOWER BY MID DAY. HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ABE AND RDG BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z, WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/2SM AND CEILINGS AS LOW AS OVC002. FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF SITES, EXPECT CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 800 FT AGL
BETWEEN 15 AND 21Z AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 SM. LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH +RASN AND +SN. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. HOWEVER, EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT,
MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER. IN ADDITION, AT LEAST ONE MODEL, THE GFS,
SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING THROUGH 12Z FOR
KMIV AND KACY, SUGGESTING THAT BR COULD LINGER WELL AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT. IN GENERAL, HOWEVER, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM 00 TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
NO LATER THAN MID DAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THUS,
ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAYS HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/MEOLA
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 260852
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THURSDAY, BUILD ACROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY AND THEN SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION AND CROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN FOR
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HERE IT IS, THE DAY WE`VE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR. LOW WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKING WITHIN 50
MILES OF THE SHORE. AS FOR THE IMPLICATIONS AND IMPACTS DUE TO THIS:

WINDS...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
REGION, EXPECT LIMITED MIXING TO INHIBIT REACHING WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR MOST LAND LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS COASTAL
AREAS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY, INCLUDING CAPE MAY AND LEWES, WHERE
THE WINDS MAY FUNNEL DOWN THE BAY LEADING TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45
MPH AROUND MID DAY. HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO BE WIDESPREAD SO
HAVE NOT ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

PRECIPITATION...ALREADY STARTING TO SEE THE FIRST RAIN BANDS STREAM
THROUGH DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ, SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE
PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING, AND THEN
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE, NOT MUCH
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL EXPECT A NARROW CORRIDOR
ROUGHLY ALONG THE FALL LINE/I95 CORRIDOR DELINEATING WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT SUNRISE, SHOULD SEE THIS CORRIDOR GRADUALLY AND
SUBTLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WAS A SUBTLE TREND IN THE
00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS DEW
POINTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION, AFTER TWO
DAYS OF NOT SEEING IT IN ANY MODEL, GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS NOW DEPICT A
MID LEVEL WARM LAYER FROM THE I 95 CORRIDOR EAST, SUGGESTING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SLEET. HOWEVER, HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF SLEET AT
THIS TIME AS THE MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET, WHICH LOOKS TO BE THE
MAIN FACTOR IN THIS WARM LAYER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD STAY FURTHER EAST
OVER AREAS THAT WILL MOSTLY SEE RAIN ANYWAY.

SNOW AMOUNTS...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NARROW CORRIDOR OF RAIN TO SNOW CHANGE OVER,
SHOULD ALSO SEE SNOW TOTALS INCREASE QUICKLY AS YOU GO FURTHER WEST
FROM THE I 95 CORRIDOR. BEST POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTOGENESIS SNOW BAND
(AND THUS LOCALLY HIGH SNOW AMOUNTS) LOOKS TO BE A CORRIDOR FROM
ROUGHLY ABE TO JIM THORPE UP TO SUSSEX NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT, TEMPERING HOW COLD IT WILL GET OVERNIGHT EVEN IN
LOCATIONS WITH A FRESH SNOW PACK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY...THANKSGIVING DAY...OVERALL THE DAY DOESN`T LOOK TOO
SHABBY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME BUT LARGELY IT LOOKS LIKE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. ANY LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND BE DONE BY EVENING AS DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW AND WE WILL ONLY SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
WILL BE QUITE CHILLY AND DROP DOWN INTO THE 20S, WITH SOME TEENS
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY...COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF
THURSDAY BUT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER OVERALL. THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND AS WELL. SO WHILE IT MAY NOT FEEL WARM
OUTSIDE, THE SUNSHINE WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT LOOK WARMER THAN IT IS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD AND DROP DOWN INTO 20S
WITH TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

SATURDAY...THE AIRMASS WILL MODIFY A BIT AS THE HIGH BUILDS SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD BEFORE STARTING TO SLIDE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE MODIFICATION
AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 40S THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOWER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS WILL REMAIN COLDER AND MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE 30S. THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY SATURDAY NIGH
AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN A BIT WARMER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WE HAVE A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 30S, WARMER ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WARMER AND MOISTER AIR OVERSPREADS OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 50S, POSSIBLY INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MONDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
AND IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL QUITE GET TO THE REGION UNTIL
MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA, FINALLY
PUSHING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE
MOISTURE PETERS OUT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR AREA. FOR NOW WE KEEP
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WITH THE FRONT TAKING ITS TIME, HIGHS WILL BE IN 40S TO 50S
ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN MOVES IN.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
ON TUESDAY AND WE SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE, ON AVERAGE,
AT LEAST 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. EXPECT ALL SITES TO BE IFR OR LOWER BY MID DAY. HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ABE AND RDG BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z, WITH
VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/2SM AND CEILINGS AS LOW AS OVC002. FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF SITES, EXPECT CEILINGS BETWEEN 500 AND 800 FT AGL
BETWEEN 15 AND 21Z AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 SM. LOWEST
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED WITH +RASN AND +SN. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE OUT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. HOWEVER, EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT,
MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER. IN ADDITION, AT LEAST ONE MODEL, THE GFS,
SHOWS A NEARLY SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER LINGERING THROUGH 12Z FOR
KMIV AND KACY, SUGGESTING THAT BR COULD LINGER WELL AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION HAS LEFT. IN GENERAL, HOWEVER, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM 00 TO 12Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
WINDS REACHING GALE CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE BUT THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
NO LATER THAN MID DAY. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THUS,
ONCE WINDS DROP BELOW GALE CONDITIONS, AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY AND REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY NEAR 25 KNOTS ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW TO OUR EAST AND
THE BUILDING HIGH TO OUR WEST.

SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS WILL NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAIN, WITH RAIN AMOUNTS ABOVE AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MOST OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. DEPENDING ON RAIN
RATES, THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
IN ADDITION FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS, TODAYS HIGH TIDE IS EXPECTED TO
BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL WHICH COULD EXACERBATE ANY POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING ESPECIALLY ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FOR OUR 4 SNOW CLIMATE SITES
FOR NOVEMBER 26.

ACY - TRACE IN 1977, 1957, 1955

PHL - 6.0 INCHES IN 1898

ILG - 0.1 INCHES IN 1950

ABE - 1.7 INCHES IN 1925.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/MEOLA
HYDROLOGY...JOHNSON
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 260226
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR FLORIDA THIS EVENING WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE RACING TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
00Z SFC ANALYSIS VS MODEL 6 TO 12HR PROJECTIONS FAVORS EITHER THE
GFS OR THE ECMWF. ODD PART WAS THE ECMWF CONVECTIVE QPF LOCATIONS
WAS TOO SOUTH IN FL. OTHER MODELS ARE BETTER WITH LOCATION, NONE ARE
GOOD WITH AMOUNTS. THERE IS A PLETHORA OF LIGHTNING ACROSS FLORIDA.
THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE PCPN WAS PRETTY GOOD (EXCEPT FOR
THE CAN RGEM) WITH A NOD TO THE ECMWF.

GOING ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE MODELS ARE STILL LAGGING THE
REMAINING WARMTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS 925MB 00Z SOUNDINGS
ARE 0 TO 1C WARMER AND 850MB SOUNDINGS ARE 1 TO 2C WARMER.  AT
700MB, THERE WAS ALSO A 0 TO 1C COLD BIAS UPWIND WITH THE GSO
ERROR AT 2C. OF THE ECMWF, NAM AND GFS, THE NAM HAS THE MORE
PREVALENT COLD BIAS. CONVERSELY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST
THERE IS A 0 TO 1C WARM BIAS THAT SHOWS UP THE STRONGEST AT 850MB.
AT 500MB, THE RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST IS HANDLED WELL, THE
PREDICTED RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST IS ABOUT 10M TOO LOW, THE
DAKOTA KICKER IS A CLEAR GFS VICTORY, WHILE ALL THE MODELS ARE
PRETTY GOOD WITH THE LA TROF, MAYBE A TAD TOO FAST.

THE GENERAL WARMING TREND THAT CONTINUED WITH THE 18Z MODEL RUN
(PHL 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALID 18Z WED HAS GONE FROM 546 TO 552
DM ON THE GFS AND FROM 541 TO 548 DM ON THE NAM SINCE YESTERDAY)
SUITE CASTS UNCERTAINTY TO THE SNOW EXTENT ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE
OF THIS EVENT. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN WARMING AOB 925MB, THE BIGGEST
PUSH HAS BEEN AT AROUND 700MB CREATING MORE OF A SLEET AND LESS OF
A SNOW PROFILE. THIS HAS WAFFLED BACK AND FORTH AND WE ARE WAITING
FOR MORE CONSISTENCY BEFORE ADDING SLEET. BUT AS A PROXY, WE
LOWERED THE SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE I295/95 CORRIDOR WITH THE
PREVIOUS UPDATE.

THE 00Z NAM HAS REVERSED THIS TREND AND IS COLDER THAN ITS 18Z
RUN, ALTHOUGH WARMER THAN THE FULL SOUNDING 12Z VERSION. ITS
INITIALIZATION AND CORRECTION OF PREVIOUS COLD BIAS ERRORS LOOKED
GOOD. THERE REMAINS NO DENYING OF THE DRY AIR IN THE SOUNDINGS AND
WHILE DYNAMIC COOLING GETS MOST OF THE GOOD PRESS ITS
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING THAT IS MUCH MORE CLUTCH IN GETTING IT TO
SNOW, HIGHEST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FROM THE FALL LINE NORTHWEST AND
ANY LOCALE WHERE ELEVATION CAN ASSIST.

TONIGHT...THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AS DYNAMICS WITH THE
FLORIDA LOW AND GULF COAST SHORT WAVE FLOOD NORTHWARD. RAIN
DEVELOPS RAPIDLY FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST. NORTHERN
FRINGE REACHING KRDG/KABE AT 11Z MAY BEGIN AS RAIN/SNOW MIX PER
MARGINAL WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS (A WALL OF DEEP RH MOVING
NORTHWARD IN OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT).

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/25 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE TO THIS SECTION COMING BY 330 PM.

**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING**

THIS FORECAST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/25 WARMER GFS AND COLDER
ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND THEN ADJUSTING THE WET BULBING
12Z/25 BLENDED MOS TEMPS COLDER, ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLUMN ALL
SNOW DOWN TO 5000 FT AND ICE NUCLEI SEEDED FOR CRYSTALS BY CIRRUS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER ONSET/DEPARTURE
SINCE FIRST DISCUSSED IN DETAILS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

SNOW GRIDS ARE POSTED.

WE SAW THE WARMER 18Z NAM (700MB ABOVE ZERO DOWN HERE NEAR PHL).
THE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR I-95 FROM CECIL COUNTY MARYLAND THROUGH
WILMINGTON DELAWARE AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH PHILADELPHIA UP
TO NEW BRUNSWICK ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE ADVISORY AREA SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE SHAKY AND WE MAY NOT MUCH MORE UNTIL NOON TOMORROW?
THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWEST INTO NE MD IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

POCKETS OF POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY JUST NORTHWEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
BE COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (IE...AFTER ROADS ARE CLEANED UP/CLEARED OF SLUSHY
SNOW). ITS THAT 12 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THAT IS
GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY THE HILLY
AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FORECAST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG (1030MB) SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITUATION
THAT I THINK HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS
BELOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND PCPN MICROPHYSICS WITH CIRRUS SEEDING MARGINAL
-2 TO -8C BELOW 15,000 FEET!! THIS IS ANOTHER TEST OF THAT PRECIPITATION
MICROPHYSICS WHICH HAS WORKED SO WELL IN THE PAST.

AN INTENSIFYING 500MB 12HR 180 M HFC MOVING NEWD COMBINES WITH
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ AIR PROGRESSIVELY
SEWD TO NEAR I95 BY 18Z AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z/27
(WEDNESDAY EVENING-TOO LATE FOR ANY SNOW SNJ AND DE COASTS).
ELEVATIONS CHANGE TO SNOW FIRST FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. ALSO SUPPORT FROM CSI PRODUCT OF THE NAM BUT
AGAIN ITS THE NAM. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP BELOW
THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES BUT
THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR ALLENTOWN PA IS LIKELY TO OCCUR (A
VULNERABLE RECORD).

SNOW WATER RATIOS PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION 6 TO 1 I-95 MAYBE
8 TO 1 KRDG TO KABE AND 10 OR 12 TO 1 FOR THE POCONOS.

SMALL CHANCE OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE DE COAST FOR
TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGH TIDE.

SMALL CHANCE WE`LL NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE COAST
TOMORROW MORNING.

SNOW/PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM SW TO NE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SOME
REMAINING BANDING SNOW OVER NE PA AND NW NJ.

FLURRIES MAY OCCUR LATE AT NIGHT?

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THANKSGIVING, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY.
THERE COULD REMAIN SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AREAS, AND AS A SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ALOFT, IT MAY HELP CREATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL. MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY
PRECIP FREE, BUT IF IT DOES SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ELEVATIONS, A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR WITH SOME SHOWERS. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE
GOOD MOISTURE ALOFT.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE MODELS DO PUSH A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY UNTIL WE GET BETTER COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE TWO.

THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE GREATER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME MOISTURE
IS LOST AS THE FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN A
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY, DRY
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HIGH IMPACT IFR CONDITIONS PREDICTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT PRIMARILY VFR (HIGH LEVEL AND THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS),
POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR TOWARD MORNING AS PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) MOVES
INTO THE AREA. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST IS MORE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY, KABE AND KRDG IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW AS THE
PREDOMINATE PTYPE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS ON
RUNWAYS LIKELY. SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE. NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. KPHL/I95 CORRIDOR TERMINALS. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN DURING THE MORNING LOWERING TO IFR LATE MORNING
AS SNOW STARTS TO MIX IN AND PROBABLY BECOMES THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE. SOME SLUSHY ACCUMS ON RUNWAYS POSSIBLE. WE ADDED THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLEET AS A PTYPE. MVFR IMPROVEMENT LATE. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH PEAK GUSTS CLOSE TO 30
KNOTS. KMIV AND KACY AS WELL AS SHORE POINT AIRPORTS, IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PREDOMINATELY MODERATE RAIN. SOME SNOW MIGHT MIX
IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 12 TO 18
KNOTS WITH PEAK GUSTS ALSO CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER AT
COASTAL AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY LOWER CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DE COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A FULL BLOWN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM
THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
WITH A POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN UPGRADE TO A SHORT FUSE GALE WARNING.

THE 06Z, 12 AND 18Z NAM ARE ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE
WINDS VCNTY 44009 AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY (NEAR 50 KT). WE WILL
NOT KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 260226
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR FLORIDA THIS EVENING WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE RACING TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
00Z SFC ANALYSIS VS MODEL 6 TO 12HR PROJECTIONS FAVORS EITHER THE
GFS OR THE ECMWF. ODD PART WAS THE ECMWF CONVECTIVE QPF LOCATIONS
WAS TOO SOUTH IN FL. OTHER MODELS ARE BETTER WITH LOCATION, NONE ARE
GOOD WITH AMOUNTS. THERE IS A PLETHORA OF LIGHTNING ACROSS FLORIDA.
THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE PCPN WAS PRETTY GOOD (EXCEPT FOR
THE CAN RGEM) WITH A NOD TO THE ECMWF.

GOING ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE MODELS ARE STILL LAGGING THE
REMAINING WARMTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS 925MB 00Z SOUNDINGS
ARE 0 TO 1C WARMER AND 850MB SOUNDINGS ARE 1 TO 2C WARMER.  AT
700MB, THERE WAS ALSO A 0 TO 1C COLD BIAS UPWIND WITH THE GSO
ERROR AT 2C. OF THE ECMWF, NAM AND GFS, THE NAM HAS THE MORE
PREVALENT COLD BIAS. CONVERSELY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST
THERE IS A 0 TO 1C WARM BIAS THAT SHOWS UP THE STRONGEST AT 850MB.
AT 500MB, THE RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST IS HANDLED WELL, THE
PREDICTED RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST IS ABOUT 10M TOO LOW, THE
DAKOTA KICKER IS A CLEAR GFS VICTORY, WHILE ALL THE MODELS ARE
PRETTY GOOD WITH THE LA TROF, MAYBE A TAD TOO FAST.

THE GENERAL WARMING TREND THAT CONTINUED WITH THE 18Z MODEL RUN
(PHL 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALID 18Z WED HAS GONE FROM 546 TO 552
DM ON THE GFS AND FROM 541 TO 548 DM ON THE NAM SINCE YESTERDAY)
SUITE CASTS UNCERTAINTY TO THE SNOW EXTENT ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE
OF THIS EVENT. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN WARMING AOB 925MB, THE BIGGEST
PUSH HAS BEEN AT AROUND 700MB CREATING MORE OF A SLEET AND LESS OF
A SNOW PROFILE. THIS HAS WAFFLED BACK AND FORTH AND WE ARE WAITING
FOR MORE CONSISTENCY BEFORE ADDING SLEET. BUT AS A PROXY, WE
LOWERED THE SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG THE I295/95 CORRIDOR WITH THE
PREVIOUS UPDATE.

THE 00Z NAM HAS REVERSED THIS TREND AND IS COLDER THAN ITS 18Z
RUN, ALTHOUGH WARMER THAN THE FULL SOUNDING 12Z VERSION. ITS
INITIALIZATION AND CORRECTION OF PREVIOUS COLD BIAS ERRORS LOOKED
GOOD. THERE REMAINS NO DENYING OF THE DRY AIR IN THE SOUNDINGS AND
WHILE DYNAMIC COOLING GETS MOST OF THE GOOD PRESS ITS
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING THAT IS MUCH MORE CLUTCH IN GETTING IT TO
SNOW, HIGHEST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FROM THE FALL LINE NORTHWEST AND
ANY LOCALE WHERE ELEVATION CAN ASSIST.

TONIGHT...THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AS DYNAMICS WITH THE
FLORIDA LOW AND GULF COAST SHORT WAVE FLOOD NORTHWARD. RAIN
DEVELOPS RAPIDLY FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST. NORTHERN
FRINGE REACHING KRDG/KABE AT 11Z MAY BEGIN AS RAIN/SNOW MIX PER
MARGINAL WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS (A WALL OF DEEP RH MOVING
NORTHWARD IN OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT).

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/25 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE TO THIS SECTION COMING BY 330 PM.

**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING**

THIS FORECAST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/25 WARMER GFS AND COLDER
ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND THEN ADJUSTING THE WET BULBING
12Z/25 BLENDED MOS TEMPS COLDER, ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLUMN ALL
SNOW DOWN TO 5000 FT AND ICE NUCLEI SEEDED FOR CRYSTALS BY CIRRUS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER ONSET/DEPARTURE
SINCE FIRST DISCUSSED IN DETAILS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

SNOW GRIDS ARE POSTED.

WE SAW THE WARMER 18Z NAM (700MB ABOVE ZERO DOWN HERE NEAR PHL).
THE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR I-95 FROM CECIL COUNTY MARYLAND THROUGH
WILMINGTON DELAWARE AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH PHILADELPHIA UP
TO NEW BRUNSWICK ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE ADVISORY AREA SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE SHAKY AND WE MAY NOT MUCH MORE UNTIL NOON TOMORROW?
THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWEST INTO NE MD IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

POCKETS OF POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY JUST NORTHWEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
BE COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (IE...AFTER ROADS ARE CLEANED UP/CLEARED OF SLUSHY
SNOW). ITS THAT 12 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THAT IS
GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY THE HILLY
AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FORECAST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG (1030MB) SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITUATION
THAT I THINK HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS
BELOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND PCPN MICROPHYSICS WITH CIRRUS SEEDING MARGINAL
-2 TO -8C BELOW 15,000 FEET!! THIS IS ANOTHER TEST OF THAT PRECIPITATION
MICROPHYSICS WHICH HAS WORKED SO WELL IN THE PAST.

AN INTENSIFYING 500MB 12HR 180 M HFC MOVING NEWD COMBINES WITH
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ AIR PROGRESSIVELY
SEWD TO NEAR I95 BY 18Z AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z/27
(WEDNESDAY EVENING-TOO LATE FOR ANY SNOW SNJ AND DE COASTS).
ELEVATIONS CHANGE TO SNOW FIRST FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. ALSO SUPPORT FROM CSI PRODUCT OF THE NAM BUT
AGAIN ITS THE NAM. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP BELOW
THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES BUT
THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR ALLENTOWN PA IS LIKELY TO OCCUR (A
VULNERABLE RECORD).

SNOW WATER RATIOS PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION 6 TO 1 I-95 MAYBE
8 TO 1 KRDG TO KABE AND 10 OR 12 TO 1 FOR THE POCONOS.

SMALL CHANCE OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE DE COAST FOR
TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGH TIDE.

SMALL CHANCE WE`LL NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE COAST
TOMORROW MORNING.

SNOW/PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM SW TO NE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SOME
REMAINING BANDING SNOW OVER NE PA AND NW NJ.

FLURRIES MAY OCCUR LATE AT NIGHT?

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THANKSGIVING, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY.
THERE COULD REMAIN SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AREAS, AND AS A SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ALOFT, IT MAY HELP CREATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL. MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY
PRECIP FREE, BUT IF IT DOES SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ELEVATIONS, A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR WITH SOME SHOWERS. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE
GOOD MOISTURE ALOFT.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE MODELS DO PUSH A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY UNTIL WE GET BETTER COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE TWO.

THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE GREATER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME MOISTURE
IS LOST AS THE FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN A
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY, DRY
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HIGH IMPACT IFR CONDITIONS PREDICTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT PRIMARILY VFR (HIGH LEVEL AND THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS),
POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR TOWARD MORNING AS PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) MOVES
INTO THE AREA. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST IS MORE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY, KABE AND KRDG IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW AS THE
PREDOMINATE PTYPE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS ON
RUNWAYS LIKELY. SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE. NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. KPHL/I95 CORRIDOR TERMINALS. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN DURING THE MORNING LOWERING TO IFR LATE MORNING
AS SNOW STARTS TO MIX IN AND PROBABLY BECOMES THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE. SOME SLUSHY ACCUMS ON RUNWAYS POSSIBLE. WE ADDED THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLEET AS A PTYPE. MVFR IMPROVEMENT LATE. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH PEAK GUSTS CLOSE TO 30
KNOTS. KMIV AND KACY AS WELL AS SHORE POINT AIRPORTS, IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PREDOMINATELY MODERATE RAIN. SOME SNOW MIGHT MIX
IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 12 TO 18
KNOTS WITH PEAK GUSTS ALSO CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER AT
COASTAL AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY LOWER CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DE COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A FULL BLOWN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM
THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
WITH A POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN UPGRADE TO A SHORT FUSE GALE WARNING.

THE 06Z, 12 AND 18Z NAM ARE ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE
WINDS VCNTY 44009 AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY (NEAR 50 KT). WE WILL
NOT KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 252340
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
640 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR FLORIDA THIS EVENING WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE RACING TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. USED LATEST RAP RUNS TO MAKE
SOME MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS OVERNIGHT. WHERE SKIES HAVE THINNED FAR
NORTHWEST, TEMPS HAVE DROPPED QUICKLY. BOTH THE 18Z GFS AND WRF-
NMMB HAVE CONTINUED THE WARMER TREND. WRF-NMMB IS NOW HALF SNOW AT
PHL AND IT WAS ALL SNOW WITH ITS 12Z RUN WHILE THE GFS IS MOSTLY
RAIN AT PHL EXCEPT FOR ONE DYNAMICALLY COOLED 3 HR PERIOD DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THAT WARMTH HAS WAFTED AROUND 700MB
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE I95 CORRIDOR AND SLEET IS
SHOWING UP AS A PTYPE. GOING TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THE MODELS
925MB/850MB FORECASTS VERIFY OFF THE 12Z SOUNDINGS, SO ONLY A
SLIGHT SHAVING OF SNOW TOTALS WAS DONE SOUTHEAST OF I95.


TONIGHT...THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AS DYNAMICS WITH THE
FLORIDA LOW AND GULF COAST SHORT WAVE FLOOD NORTHWARD. RAIN
DEVELOPS RAPIDLY FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST. NORTHERN
FRINGE REACHING KRDG/KABE AT 11Z MAY BEGIN AS RAIN/SNOW MIX PER
MARGINAL WARM BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS (A WALL OF DEEP RH MOVING
NORTHWARD IN OUR CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT).

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/25 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE TO THIS SECTION COMING BY 330 PM.

**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING**

THIS FORECAST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/25 WARMER GFS AND COLDER
ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND THEN ADJUSTING THE WET BULBING
12Z/25 BLENDED MOS TEMPS COLDER, ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLUMN ALL
SNOW DOWN TO 5000 FT AND ICE NUCLEI SEEDED FOR CRYSTALS BY CIRRUS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER ONSET/DEPARTURE
SINCE FIRST DISCUSSED IN DETAILS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

SNOW GRIDS ARE POSTED.

WE SAW THE WARMER 18Z NAM (700MB ABOVE ZERO DOWN HERE NEAR PHL).
THE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR I-95 FROM CECIL COUNTY MARYLAND THROUGH
WILMINGTON DELAWARE AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH PHILADELPHIA UP
TO NEW BRUNSWICK ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE ADVISORY AREA SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE SHAKY AND WE MAY NOT MUCH MORE UNTIL NOON TOMORROW?
THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWEST INTO NE MD IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

POCKETS OF POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY JUST NORTHWEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
BE COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (IE...AFTER ROADS ARE CLEANED UP/CLEARED OF SLUSHY
SNOW). ITS THAT 12 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THAT IS
GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY THE HILLY
AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FORECAST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG (1030MB) SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITUATION
THAT I THINK HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS
BELOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND PCPN MICROPHYSICS WITH CIRRUS SEEDING MARGINAL
-2 TO -8C BELOW 15,000 FEET!! THIS IS ANOTHER TEST OF THAT PRECIPITATION
MICROPHYSICS WHICH HAS WORKED SO WELL IN THE PAST.

AN INTENSIFYING 500MB 12HR 180 M HFC MOVING NEWD COMBINES WITH
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ AIR PROGRESSIVELY
SEWD TO NEAR I95 BY 18Z AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z/27
(WEDNESDAY EVENING-TOO LATE FOR ANY SNOW SNJ AND DE COASTS).
ELEVATIONS CHANGE TO SNOW FIRST FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. ALSO SUPPORT FROM CSI PRODUCT OF THE NAM BUT
AGAIN ITS THE NAM. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP BELOW
THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES BUT
THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR ALLENTOWN PA IS LIKELY TO OCCUR (A
VULNERABLE RECORD).

SNOW WATER RATIOS PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION 6 TO 1 I-95 MAYBE
8 TO 1 KRDG TO KABE AND 10 OR 12 TO 1 FOR THE POCONOS.

SMALL CHANCE OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE DE COAST FOR
TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGH TIDE.

SMALL CHANCE WE`LL NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE COAST
TOMORROW MORNING.

SNOW/PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM SW TO NE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SOME
REMAINING BANDING SNOW OVER NE PA AND NW NJ.

FLURRIES MAY OCCUR LATE AT NIGHT?

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THANKSGIVING, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY.
THERE COULD REMAIN SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AREAS, AND AS A SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ALOFT, IT MAY HELP CREATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL. MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY
PRECIP FREE, BUT IF IT DOES SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ELEVATIONS, A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR WITH SOME SHOWERS. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE
GOOD MOISTURE ALOFT.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE MODELS DO PUSH A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY UNTIL WE GET BETTER COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE TWO.

THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE GREATER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME MOISTURE
IS LOST AS THE FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN A
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY, DRY
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HIGH IMPACT IFR CONDITIONS PREDICTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

FOR TONIGHT PRIMARILY VFR (HIGH LEVEL AND THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS),
POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR TOWARD MORNING AS PCPN (MAINLY RAIN) MOVES
INTO THE AREA. WIND DIRECTION FORECAST IS MORE FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY, KABE AND KRDG IFR CONDITIONS WITH SNOW AS THE
PREDOMINATE PTYPE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS ON
RUNWAYS LIKELY. SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE. NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. KPHL/I95 CORRIDOR TERMINALS. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN RAIN DURING THE MORNING LOWERING TO IFR LATE MORNING
AS SNOW STARTS TO MIX IN AND PROBABLY BECOMES THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE. SOME SLUSHY ACCUMS ON RUNWAYS POSSIBLE. WE ADDED THE
POSSIBILITY OF SLEET AS A PTYPE. MVFR IMPROVEMENT LATE. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH PEAK GUSTS CLOSE TO 30
KNOTS. KMIV AND KACY AS WELL AS SHORE POINT AIRPORTS, IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO PREDOMINATELY MODERATE RAIN. SOME SNOW MIGHT MIX
IN DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 12 TO 18
KNOTS WITH PEAK GUSTS ALSO CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER AT
COASTAL AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING VFR WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY LOWER CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DE COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A FULL BLOWN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM
THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
WITH A POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN UPGRADE TO A SHORT FUSE GALE WARNING.

THE 06Z, 12 AND 18Z NAM ARE ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE
WINDS VCNTY 44009 AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY (NEAR 50 KT). WE WILL
NOT KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 252059
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR FLORIDA THIS EVENING WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE RACING TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...TEMPORARY CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN E PA SOON SEALS
UP WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AS DYNAMICS WITH THE FLORIDA
LOW AND GULF COAST SHORT WAVE FLOOD NORTHWARD. RAIN DEVELOPS RAPIDLY
FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST. NORTHERN FRINGE REACHING
KRDG/KABE AT 11Z MAY BEGIN AS RAIN/SNOW MIX PER MARGINAL WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS (A WALL OF DEEP RH MOVING NORTHWARD IN OUR
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT).

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/25 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE TO THIS SECTION COMING BY 330 PM.

**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING**

THIS FORECAST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/25 WARMER GFS AND COLDER
ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND THEN ADJUSTING THE WET BULBING
12Z/25 BLENDED MOS TEMPS COLDER, ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLUMN ALL
SNOW DOWN TO 5000 FT AND ICE NUCLEI SEEDED FOR CRYSTALS BY CIRRUS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER ONSET/DEPARTURE
SINCE FIRST DISCUSSED IN DETAILS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

SNOW GRIDS ARE POSTED.

WE SAW THE WARMER 18Z NAM (700MB ABOVE ZERO DOWN HERE NEAR PHL).
THE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR I-95 FROM CECIL COUNTY MARYLAND THROUGH
WILMINGTON DELAWARE AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH PHILADELPHIA UP
TO NEW BRUNSWICK ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE ADVISORY AREA SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE SHAKY AND WE MAY NOT MUCH MORE UNTIL NOON TOMORROW?
THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWEST INTO NE MD IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

POCKETS OF POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY JUST NORTHWEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
BE COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (IE...AFTER ROADS ARE CLEANED UP/CLEARED OF SLUSHY
SNOW). ITS THAT 12 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THAT IS
GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY THE HILLY
AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FORECAST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG (1030MB) SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITUATION
THAT I THINK HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS
BELOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND PCPN MICROPHYSICS WITH CIRRUS SEEDING MARGINAL
-2 TO -8C BELOW 15,000 FEET!! THIS IS ANOTHER TEST OF THAT PRECIPITATION
MICROPHYSICS WHICH HAS WORKED SO WELL IN THE PAST.

AN INTENSIFYING 500MB 12HR 180 M HFC MOVING NEWD COMBINES WITH
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ AIR PROGRESSIVELY
SEWD TO NEAR I95 BY 18Z AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z/27
(WEDNESDAY EVENING-TOO LATE FOR ANY SNOW SNJ AND DE COASTS).
ELEVATIONS CHANGE TO SNOW FIRST FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. ALSO SUPPORT FROM CSI PRODUCT OF THE NAM BUT
AGAIN ITS THE NAM. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP BELOW
THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES BUT
THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR ALLENTOWN PA IS LIKELY TO OCCUR (A
VULNERABLE RECORD).

SNOW WATER RATIOS PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION 6 TO 1 I-95 MAYBE
8 TO 1 KRDG TO KABE AND 10 OR 12 TO 1 FOR THE POCONOS.

SMALL CHANCE OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE DE COAST FOR
TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGH TIDE.

SMALL CHANCE WE`LL NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE COAST
TOMORROW MORNING.

SNOW/PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM SW TO NE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SOME
REMAINING BANDING SNOW OVER NE PA AND NW NJ.

FLURRIES MAY OCCUR LATE AT NIGHT?


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THANKSGIVING, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY.
THERE COULD REMAIN SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AREAS, AND AS A SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ALOFT, IT MAY HELP CREATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL. MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY
PRECIP FREE, BUT IF IT DOES SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ELEVATIONS, A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR WITH SOME SHOWERS. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE
GOOD MOISTURE ALOFT.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE MODELS DO PUSH A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY UNTIL WE GET BETTER COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE TWO.

THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE GREATER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME MOISTURE
IS LOST AS THE FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN A
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY, DRY
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 4000 FT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER
06Z THEN RAIN BEGINS AS PER THE TAFS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TURN
NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AND GUST 15-20 KT BY DAYBREAK.

WED AND WED EVENING... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW EXCEPT MAINLY SNOW AT KRDG/KABE. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ALL SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FOR
A TIME WEDNESDAY IN THE I-95 TAF CORRIDOR FROM KTTN THROUGH KPNE
KPHL KILG.

PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT KRDG AND
KABE WHERE A SHORT PERIOD OF ONE QUARTER MILE HEAVY SNOW IS
FORECAST. EVEN SLOPPY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE AT KPHL.

THIS IS A WET SNOW WHERE IT OCCURS EXCEPT MORE CRYSTALLINE VCNTY
THE POCONOS WHERE IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER!

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT IMPERFECT REGARDING PRECIPITATION
PHASE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY LOWER CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DE COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A FULL BLOWN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM
THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
WITH A POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN UPGRADE TO A SHORT FUSE GALE WARNING.

THE 06Z, 12 AND 18Z NAM ARE ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE
WINDS VCNTY 44009 AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY (NEAR 50 KT). WE WILL
NOT KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  4P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 4P
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 4P
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 4P
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 252059
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR FLORIDA THIS EVENING WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE RACING TO THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE
SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...TEMPORARY CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN E PA SOON SEALS
UP WITH THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS AS DYNAMICS WITH THE FLORIDA
LOW AND GULF COAST SHORT WAVE FLOOD NORTHWARD. RAIN DEVELOPS RAPIDLY
FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST. NORTHERN FRINGE REACHING
KRDG/KABE AT 11Z MAY BEGIN AS RAIN/SNOW MIX PER MARGINAL WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS (A WALL OF DEEP RH MOVING NORTHWARD IN OUR
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT).

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/25 NCEP MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE TO THIS SECTION COMING BY 330 PM.

**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING**

THIS FORECAST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/25 WARMER GFS AND COLDER
ECMWF PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND THEN ADJUSTING THE WET BULBING
12Z/25 BLENDED MOS TEMPS COLDER, ESPECIALLY WITH THE COLUMN ALL
SNOW DOWN TO 5000 FT AND ICE NUCLEI SEEDED FOR CRYSTALS BY CIRRUS.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER ONSET/DEPARTURE
SINCE FIRST DISCUSSED IN DETAILS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

SNOW GRIDS ARE POSTED.

WE SAW THE WARMER 18Z NAM (700MB ABOVE ZERO DOWN HERE NEAR PHL).
THE SNOW AMOUNTS NEAR I-95 FROM CECIL COUNTY MARYLAND THROUGH
WILMINGTON DELAWARE AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH PHILADELPHIA UP
TO NEW BRUNSWICK ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE ADVISORY AREA SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE SHAKY AND WE MAY NOT MUCH MORE UNTIL NOON TOMORROW?
THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWEST INTO NE MD IN
FUTURE FORECASTS.

POCKETS OF POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY JUST NORTHWEST OF
INTERSTATE 95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
BE COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (IE...AFTER ROADS ARE CLEANED UP/CLEARED OF SLUSHY
SNOW). ITS THAT 12 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THAT IS
GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY THE HILLY
AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FORECAST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG (1030MB) SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITUATION
THAT I THINK HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS
BELOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND PCPN MICROPHYSICS WITH CIRRUS SEEDING MARGINAL
-2 TO -8C BELOW 15,000 FEET!! THIS IS ANOTHER TEST OF THAT PRECIPITATION
MICROPHYSICS WHICH HAS WORKED SO WELL IN THE PAST.

AN INTENSIFYING 500MB 12HR 180 M HFC MOVING NEWD COMBINES WITH
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ AIR PROGRESSIVELY
SEWD TO NEAR I95 BY 18Z AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z/27
(WEDNESDAY EVENING-TOO LATE FOR ANY SNOW SNJ AND DE COASTS).
ELEVATIONS CHANGE TO SNOW FIRST FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. ALSO SUPPORT FROM CSI PRODUCT OF THE NAM BUT
AGAIN ITS THE NAM. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP BELOW
THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES BUT
THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR ALLENTOWN PA IS LIKELY TO OCCUR (A
VULNERABLE RECORD).

SNOW WATER RATIOS PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION 6 TO 1 I-95 MAYBE
8 TO 1 KRDG TO KABE AND 10 OR 12 TO 1 FOR THE POCONOS.

SMALL CHANCE OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE DE COAST FOR
TOMORROW MORNINGS HIGH TIDE.

SMALL CHANCE WE`LL NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE COAST
TOMORROW MORNING.

SNOW/PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM SW TO NE WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH SOME
REMAINING BANDING SNOW OVER NE PA AND NW NJ.

FLURRIES MAY OCCUR LATE AT NIGHT?


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THANKSGIVING, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY.
THERE COULD REMAIN SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AREAS, AND AS A SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ALOFT, IT MAY HELP CREATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL. MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY
PRECIP FREE, BUT IF IT DOES SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ELEVATIONS, A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR WITH SOME SHOWERS. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE
GOOD MOISTURE ALOFT.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE MODELS DO PUSH A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY UNTIL WE GET BETTER COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE TWO.

THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE GREATER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME MOISTURE
IS LOST AS THE FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN A
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY, DRY
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 4000 FT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER
06Z THEN RAIN BEGINS AS PER THE TAFS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TURN
NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AND GUST 15-20 KT BY DAYBREAK.

WED AND WED EVENING... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW EXCEPT MAINLY SNOW AT KRDG/KABE. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ALL SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FOR
A TIME WEDNESDAY IN THE I-95 TAF CORRIDOR FROM KTTN THROUGH KPNE
KPHL KILG.

PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT KRDG AND
KABE WHERE A SHORT PERIOD OF ONE QUARTER MILE HEAVY SNOW IS
FORECAST. EVEN SLOPPY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE AT KPHL.

THIS IS A WET SNOW WHERE IT OCCURS EXCEPT MORE CRYSTALLINE VCNTY
THE POCONOS WHERE IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER!

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT IMPERFECT REGARDING PRECIPITATION
PHASE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY LOWER CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DE COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A FULL BLOWN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM
THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY
WITH A POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN UPGRADE TO A SHORT FUSE GALE WARNING.

THE 06Z, 12 AND 18Z NAM ARE ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE
WINDS VCNTY 44009 AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY (NEAR 50 KT). WE WILL
NOT KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  4P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 4P
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 4P
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 4P
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 252001
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
301 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE TODAY, BEFORE A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST TONIGHT. THIS
LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE RACING TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE TO THIS SECTION COMING BY 330 PM.

QUIET WEATHER... FOR THOSE IN THE WARNING AREA...GET YOUR WORK/ERRANDS
DONE TODAY.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTRAL
APPS. CIRRUS GENERATED BY THE RRQ OF 250 MB JET AXISED NE-SW TO
THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH 210KT SPEED MAX`S MODELED ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY.

WET BULBS START LOWERING IN CAA WITH WESTERLY WIND GUST TO 20 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST.
NORTHERN FRINGE MAY REACH I80 AT 12Z AS START AS SNOW THERE AT
SUNRISE (WALL OF RH).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE TO THIS SECTION COMING BY 330 PM.

**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING**

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER ONSET/DEPARTURE
SINCE FIRST DISCUSSED IN DETAILS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

WE WONT CHANGE ANY SNOW TOTAL GRIDS AT THIS TIME. WE CONTINUE MORE
UNCERTAINTY SOUTHEAST OF THE WARNING AREA BUT 12Z/25 NAM PROFILE
IS COLDER AT PHL WHICH COULD MEAN 3 TO 6 INCHES THERE EVEN DURING
THE DAY.

POCKETS OF POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY NEAR INTERSTATE 95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
BE COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (IE...AFTER ROADS ARE CLEANED UP/CLEARED OF SLUSHY
SNOW). ITS THAT 12 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THAT IS
GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY THE HILLY
AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FORECAST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG (1030MB) SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITUATION
THAT I THINK HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS
BELOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND PCPN MICROPHYSICS WITH CIRRUS SEEDING MARGINAL
-2 TO -8C BELOW 15,000 FEET!! THIS IS ANOTHER TEST OF THAT PRECIPITATION
MICROPHYSICS WHICH HAS WORKED SO WELL IN THE PAST.

BARRING THE OFF LINE CHATTER OF AN IGW WHICH I DONT THINK WILL OCCUR
IN THIS SITUATION BECAUSE I THINK WE`RE LACKING A COUPLE OF ELEMENTS
INCLUDING A DRAMATIC SHORTENING 500 MB WAVE LENGTH, THE SREF AND
ECMWF MIX I THINK HAVE BEEN STEADFAST ON ADVERTISING THIS EVENT.
IF A GRAVITY WAVE WERE TO OCCUR I DONT THINK TODAYS SCIENCE CAN BE
SURE HOW IT MODULATES THE PCPN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE, BUT PLEASE
CORRECT ME.

SO...THE BASICS: AN INTENSIFYING 500MB 12HR 190 M HFC MOVING NEWD
COMBINES WITH ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ AIR
PROGRESSIVELY SEWD TO NEAR I95 BY 18Z AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST
BY 00Z/27 (WEDNESDAY EVENING-TOO LATE FOR ANY SNOW SNJ AND DE COASTS).
ELEVATIONS CHANGE TO SNOW FIRST FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP
BELOW THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES
BUT THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR ALLENTOWN PA IS LIKELY TO OCCUR (A
VULNERABLE RECORD).

SNOW WATER RATIOS PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION 6 TO 1 I-95 MAYBE
8 TO 1 KRDG TO KABE AND
10 OR 12 TO 1 FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THANKSGIVING, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY.
THERE COULD REMAIN SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AREAS, AND AS A SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ALOFT, IT MAY HELP CREATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL. MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY
PRECIP FREE, BUT IF IT DOES SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ELEVATIONS, A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR WITH SOME SHOWERS. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE
GOOD MOISTURE ALOFT.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE MODELS DO PUSH A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY UNTIL WE GET BETTER COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE TWO.

THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE GREATER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME MOISTURE
IS LOST AS THE FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN A
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY, DRY
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...A PERIOD OF CIGS 4000-5000 FT IS DEVELOPING
ENEWD FROM NEAR INTERSTATE 95 EASTWARD (SEE NAM 900-800MB LAYER RH)
AND WILL CLEAR AWAY BY 21Z. OTRW CIRRUS CIGS THIS AFTN MAY BRIEFLY
THIN A BIT THIS EVENING. WNW WIND WILL GUST NEAR 20 KT FOR A TIME
TODAY.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 4000 FT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER
06Z THEN RAIN BEGINS AS PER THE TAFS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TURN
NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AND GUST 15 KT BY DAYBREAK.

WED AND WED EVENING... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW EXCEPT MAINLY SNOW AT KRDG/KABE. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ALL SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FOR
A TIME WEDNESDAY IN THE I-95 TAF CORRIDOR FROM KTTN THROUGH KPNE
KPHL KILG.

PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT KRDG AND
KABE AND EVEN SLOPPY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE AT KPHL.

THIS IS A WET SNOW WHERE IT OCCURS EXCEPT MORE CRYSTALLINE VCNTY
THE POCONOS WHERE IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER!

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT IMPERFECT REGARDING PRECIPITATION
PHASE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE PHILADELPHIA AREA. WE`LL RE-REVIEW
THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z/25 NAM CHANGES BY 15Z BUT THE 12Z/25 GFS THERMAL
PROFILES DO NOT! NO CONFIDENT ANSWER AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK....
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY LOWER
CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA SEAS ON THE ATLC WATERS WILL BRIEFLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
BELOW CRITERIA.  QUIET ON THE DE BAY WATERS TODAY.

EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A FULL BLOWN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM
THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY.
BOTH THE 06Z AND 12Z NAM ARE ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE
WINDS VCNTY 44009 AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY (NEAR 50 KT). WE WILL NOT
KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 252001
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
301 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE TODAY, BEFORE A COASTAL LOW
DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST TONIGHT. THIS
LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT PASSES NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE RACING TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE SQUEEZING TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG DOWN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE TO THIS SECTION COMING BY 330 PM.

QUIET WEATHER... FOR THOSE IN THE WARNING AREA...GET YOUR WORK/ERRANDS
DONE TODAY.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTRAL
APPS. CIRRUS GENERATED BY THE RRQ OF 250 MB JET AXISED NE-SW TO
THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH 210KT SPEED MAX`S MODELED ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY.

WET BULBS START LOWERING IN CAA WITH WESTERLY WIND GUST TO 20 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST.
NORTHERN FRINGE MAY REACH I80 AT 12Z AS START AS SNOW THERE AT
SUNRISE (WALL OF RH).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPDATE TO THIS SECTION COMING BY 330 PM.

**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING**

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER ONSET/DEPARTURE
SINCE FIRST DISCUSSED IN DETAILS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

WE WONT CHANGE ANY SNOW TOTAL GRIDS AT THIS TIME. WE CONTINUE MORE
UNCERTAINTY SOUTHEAST OF THE WARNING AREA BUT 12Z/25 NAM PROFILE
IS COLDER AT PHL WHICH COULD MEAN 3 TO 6 INCHES THERE EVEN DURING
THE DAY.

POCKETS OF POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY NEAR INTERSTATE 95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
BE COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (IE...AFTER ROADS ARE CLEANED UP/CLEARED OF SLUSHY
SNOW). ITS THAT 12 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THAT IS
GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY THE HILLY
AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FORECAST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG (1030MB) SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITUATION
THAT I THINK HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS
BELOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND PCPN MICROPHYSICS WITH CIRRUS SEEDING MARGINAL
-2 TO -8C BELOW 15,000 FEET!! THIS IS ANOTHER TEST OF THAT PRECIPITATION
MICROPHYSICS WHICH HAS WORKED SO WELL IN THE PAST.

BARRING THE OFF LINE CHATTER OF AN IGW WHICH I DONT THINK WILL OCCUR
IN THIS SITUATION BECAUSE I THINK WE`RE LACKING A COUPLE OF ELEMENTS
INCLUDING A DRAMATIC SHORTENING 500 MB WAVE LENGTH, THE SREF AND
ECMWF MIX I THINK HAVE BEEN STEADFAST ON ADVERTISING THIS EVENT.
IF A GRAVITY WAVE WERE TO OCCUR I DONT THINK TODAYS SCIENCE CAN BE
SURE HOW IT MODULATES THE PCPN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE, BUT PLEASE
CORRECT ME.

SO...THE BASICS: AN INTENSIFYING 500MB 12HR 190 M HFC MOVING NEWD
COMBINES WITH ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ AIR
PROGRESSIVELY SEWD TO NEAR I95 BY 18Z AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST
BY 00Z/27 (WEDNESDAY EVENING-TOO LATE FOR ANY SNOW SNJ AND DE COASTS).
ELEVATIONS CHANGE TO SNOW FIRST FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP
BELOW THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES
BUT THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR ALLENTOWN PA IS LIKELY TO OCCUR (A
VULNERABLE RECORD).

SNOW WATER RATIOS PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION 6 TO 1 I-95 MAYBE
8 TO 1 KRDG TO KABE AND
10 OR 12 TO 1 FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THANKSGIVING, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY.
THERE COULD REMAIN SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN AREAS, AND AS A SHORT WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ALOFT, IT MAY HELP CREATE AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS WELL. MOST AREAS SHOULD STAY
PRECIP FREE, BUT IF IT DOES SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN ELEVATIONS, A
LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR WITH SOME SHOWERS. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT, ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE
GOOD MOISTURE ALOFT.

FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EAST COAST, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
PRECIPITATION FREE. THE MODELS DO PUSH A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GFS SHOWING MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY UNTIL WE GET BETTER COLLABORATION BETWEEN THE TWO.

THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY, BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE GREATER THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME MOISTURE
IS LOST AS THE FRONT SAGS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THERE WILL REMAIN A
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY, DRY
WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

AFTER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...A PERIOD OF CIGS 4000-5000 FT IS DEVELOPING
ENEWD FROM NEAR INTERSTATE 95 EASTWARD (SEE NAM 900-800MB LAYER RH)
AND WILL CLEAR AWAY BY 21Z. OTRW CIRRUS CIGS THIS AFTN MAY BRIEFLY
THIN A BIT THIS EVENING. WNW WIND WILL GUST NEAR 20 KT FOR A TIME
TODAY.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 4000 FT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER
06Z THEN RAIN BEGINS AS PER THE TAFS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TURN
NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AND GUST 15 KT BY DAYBREAK.

WED AND WED EVENING... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW EXCEPT MAINLY SNOW AT KRDG/KABE. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ALL SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FOR
A TIME WEDNESDAY IN THE I-95 TAF CORRIDOR FROM KTTN THROUGH KPNE
KPHL KILG.

PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT KRDG AND
KABE AND EVEN SLOPPY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE AT KPHL.

THIS IS A WET SNOW WHERE IT OCCURS EXCEPT MORE CRYSTALLINE VCNTY
THE POCONOS WHERE IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER!

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT IMPERFECT REGARDING PRECIPITATION
PHASE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE PHILADELPHIA AREA. WE`LL RE-REVIEW
THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z/25 NAM CHANGES BY 15Z BUT THE 12Z/25 GFS THERMAL
PROFILES DO NOT! NO CONFIDENT ANSWER AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK....
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY TEMPORARILY LOWER
CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIND GUSTS 15-20 KNOTS EACH DAY; NW
FRIDAY, SW SATURDAY & SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA SEAS ON THE ATLC WATERS WILL BRIEFLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
BELOW CRITERIA.  QUIET ON THE DE BAY WATERS TODAY.

EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A FULL BLOWN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM
THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY.
BOTH THE 06Z AND 12Z NAM ARE ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE
WINDS VCNTY 44009 AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY (NEAR 50 KT). WE WILL NOT
KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT SEAS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055-060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ012-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 251607
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1107 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION LATE
TODAY. THEN, A STORM WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
COAST TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST
OF CAPE COD EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER... FOR THOSE IN THE WARNING AREA...GET YOUR WORK/ERRANDS
DONE TODAY.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTRAL
APPS. CIRRUS GENERATED BY THE RRQ OF 250 MB JET AXISED NE-SW TO
THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH 210KT SPEED MAX`S MODELED ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY.

WET BULBS START LOWERING IN CAA WITH WESTERLY WIND GUST TO 20 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST.
NORTHERN FRINGE MAY REACH I80 AT 12Z AS START AS SNOW THERE AT
SUNRISE (WALL OF RH).

NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO ANY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING**

930 AM ESTF: FIRST WARNING ISSUANCE AND SOON STERLING JOINS US.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER ONSET/DEPARTURE SINCE
FIRST DISCUSSED IN DETAILS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

WE WONT CHANGE ANY SNOW TOTAL GRIDS AT THIS TIME. WE CONTINUE MORE
UNCERTAINTY SOUTHEAST OF THE WARNING AREA BUT 12Z/25 NAM PROFILE
IS COLDER AT PHL WHICH COULD MEAN 3 TO 6 INCHES THERE EVEN DURING
THE DAY.

POCKETS OF POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY NEAR INTERSTATE 95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
BE COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (IE...AFTER ROADS ARE CLEANED UP/CLEARED OF SLUSHY
SNOW). ITS THAT 12 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THAT IS
GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY THE HILLY
AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FORECAST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG (1030MB) SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITUATION
THAT I THINK HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS
BELOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND PCPN MICROPHYSICS WITH CIRRUS SEEDING MARGINAL
-2 TO -8C BELOW 15,000 FEET!! THIS IS ANOTHER TEST OF THAT PRECIPITATION
MICROPHYSICS WHICH HAS WORKED SO WELL IN THE PAST.

BARRING THE OFF LINE CHATTER OF AN IGW WHICH I DONT THINK WILL OCCUR
IN THIS SITUATION BECAUSE I THINK WE`RE LACKING A COUPLE OF ELEMENTS
INCLUDING A DRAMATIC SHORTENING 500 MB WAVE LENGTH, THE SREF AND
ECMWF MIX I THINK HAVE BEEN STEADFAST ON ADVERTISING THIS EVENT.
IF A GRAVITY WAVE WERE TO OCCUR I DONT THINK TODAYS SCIENCE CAN BE
SURE HOW IT MODULATES THE PCPN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE, BUT PLEASE
CORRECT ME.

SO...THE BASICS: AN INTENSIFYING 500MB 12HR 190 M HFC MOVING NEWD
COMBINES WITH ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ AIR
PROGRESSIVELY SEWD TO NEAR I95 BY 18Z AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST
BY 00Z/27 (WEDNESDAY EVENING-TOO LATE FOR ANY SNOW SNJ AND DE COASTS).
ELEVATIONS CHANGE TO SNOW FIRST FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP
BELOW THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES
BUT THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR ALLENTOWN PA IS LIKELY TO OCCUR (A
VULNERABLE RECORD).

SNOW WATER RATIOS PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION 6 TO 1 I-95 MAYBE
8 TO 1 KRDG TO KABE AND
10 OR 12 TO 1 FOR THE POCONOS.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STORM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SERN CONUS CST ON
WED THEN TRACK NEWD DURG THE DAY ON WED. HOWEVER, WHILE THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES, THERE REMAINS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES AND SOME THE FINER DETAILS,
WHICH COULD PROVE IMPORTANT AS THE EVENT PLAYS OUT.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THE AREAS N AND W OF PHILADELPHIA HAVE
THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATION RELATED SNOW, WHICH
WILL IMPACT TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. SRN AND ERN AREAS SE OF THE I95
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY STAY ALL OR MOSTLY RAIN, SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PONDING OF RAIN ON
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS.

ADDITIONALLY, IT WAS QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AND WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
TODAY SO THE GROUND HAS IS WARM WHICH MAY NEGATE SOME ACCUMS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET ON ROADWAYS ETC, UNLESS THE SNOW COMES
DOWN HEAVY.

SO, ULTIMATELY IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT WILL WIN OUT IN THIS
AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W
FOR SOME MESOSCALE BANDING WHICH COULD INCREASE ANY SNOWFALL
RATES, BUT THIS IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO PREDICT MORE THAN A FEW
HOURS IN ADVANCE, AND AMOUNTS CAN VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THOSE AREAS
UNDER A BAND AND THOSE WHICH ARE NOT.

THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA WOULD BE FROM
BERKS COUNTY NEWD THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NW NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACRS ERN CANADA ON SUN AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT OR ERLY MON, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GUID IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT A
WAVE COULD FORM ON THIS FRONT ON MON, WHICH WOULD LINGER PRECIP CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...A PERIOD OF CIGS 4000-5000 FT IS DEVELOPING
ENEWD FROM NEAR INTERSTATE 95 EASTWARD (SEE NAM 900-800MB LAYER RH)
AND WILL CLEAR AWAY BY 21Z. OTRW CIRRUS CIGS THIS AFTN MAY BRIEFLY
THIN A BIT THIS EVENING. WNW WIND WILL GUST NEAR 20 KT FOR A TIME
TODAY.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 4000 FT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER
06Z THEN RAIN BEGINS AS PER THE TAFS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TURN
NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AND GUST 15 KT BY DAYBREAK.

WED AND WED EVENING... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW EXCEPT MAINLY SNOW AT KRDG/KABE. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ALL SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FOR
A TIME WEDNESDAY IN THE I-95 TAF CORRIDOR FROM KTTN THROUGH KPNE
KPHL KILG.

PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT KRDG AND
KABE AND EVEN SLOPPY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE AT KPHL.

THIS IS A WET SNOW WHERE IT OCCURS EXCEPT MORE CRYSTALLINE VCNTY
THE POCONOS WHERE IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER!

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT IMPERFECT REGARDING PRECIPITATION
PHASE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE PHILADELPHIA AREA. WE`LL RE-REVIEW
THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z/25 NAM CHANGES BY 15Z BUT THE 12Z/25 GFS THERMAL
PROFILES DO NOT! NO CONFIDENT ANSWER AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK....

THU...CONDS RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR
NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA SEAS ON THE ATLC WATERS WILL BRIEFLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
BELOW CRITERIA.  QUIET ON THE DE BAY WATERS TODAY.

EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A FULL BLOWN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM
THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY.
BOTH THE 06Z AND 12Z NAM ARE ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE
WINDS VCNTY 44009 AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY (NEAR 50 KT). WE WILL NOT
KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIND AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SCA WILL BE NEEDED
PROBABLY THU AFTN OR EVE.

FRI THROUGH SAT..WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG 1105
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1105
SHORT TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG 1105
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 1105
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 1105
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 251607
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1107 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION LATE
TODAY. THEN, A STORM WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
COAST TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST...PASSING EAST
OF CAPE COD EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER... FOR THOSE IN THE WARNING AREA...GET YOUR WORK/ERRANDS
DONE TODAY.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...LOTS OF CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTRAL
APPS. CIRRUS GENERATED BY THE RRQ OF 250 MB JET AXISED NE-SW TO
THE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH 210KT SPEED MAX`S MODELED ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY.

WET BULBS START LOWERING IN CAA WITH WESTERLY WIND GUST TO 20 KT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST.
NORTHERN FRINGE MAY REACH I80 AT 12Z AS START AS SNOW THERE AT
SUNRISE (WALL OF RH).

NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO ANY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I-95 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING**

930 AM ESTF: FIRST WARNING ISSUANCE AND SOON STERLING JOINS US.

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING FASTER ONSET/DEPARTURE SINCE
FIRST DISCUSSED IN DETAILS THIS PAST WEEKEND.

WE WONT CHANGE ANY SNOW TOTAL GRIDS AT THIS TIME. WE CONTINUE MORE
UNCERTAINTY SOUTHEAST OF THE WARNING AREA BUT 12Z/25 NAM PROFILE
IS COLDER AT PHL WHICH COULD MEAN 3 TO 6 INCHES THERE EVEN DURING
THE DAY.

POCKETS OF POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY NEAR INTERSTATE 95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY
BE COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT (IE...AFTER ROADS ARE CLEANED UP/CLEARED OF SLUSHY
SNOW). ITS THAT 12 HOUR WINDOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY THAT IS
GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY THE HILLY
AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FORECAST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG (1030MB) SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITUATION
THAT I THINK HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS
BELOW. THERMAL PROFILES AND PCPN MICROPHYSICS WITH CIRRUS SEEDING MARGINAL
-2 TO -8C BELOW 15,000 FEET!! THIS IS ANOTHER TEST OF THAT PRECIPITATION
MICROPHYSICS WHICH HAS WORKED SO WELL IN THE PAST.

BARRING THE OFF LINE CHATTER OF AN IGW WHICH I DONT THINK WILL OCCUR
IN THIS SITUATION BECAUSE I THINK WE`RE LACKING A COUPLE OF ELEMENTS
INCLUDING A DRAMATIC SHORTENING 500 MB WAVE LENGTH, THE SREF AND
ECMWF MIX I THINK HAVE BEEN STEADFAST ON ADVERTISING THIS EVENT.
IF A GRAVITY WAVE WERE TO OCCUR I DONT THINK TODAYS SCIENCE CAN BE
SURE HOW IT MODULATES THE PCPN THIS FAR IN ADVANCE, BUT PLEASE
CORRECT ME.

SO...THE BASICS: AN INTENSIFYING 500MB 12HR 190 M HFC MOVING NEWD
COMBINES WITH ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ AIR
PROGRESSIVELY SEWD TO NEAR I95 BY 18Z AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST
BY 00Z/27 (WEDNESDAY EVENING-TOO LATE FOR ANY SNOW SNJ AND DE COASTS).
ELEVATIONS CHANGE TO SNOW FIRST FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP
BELOW THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES
BUT THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR ALLENTOWN PA IS LIKELY TO OCCUR (A
VULNERABLE RECORD).

SNOW WATER RATIOS PER INTERNAL COLLABORATION 6 TO 1 I-95 MAYBE
8 TO 1 KRDG TO KABE AND
10 OR 12 TO 1 FOR THE POCONOS.

FROM THE MID SHIFT BELOW...

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STORM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SERN CONUS CST ON
WED THEN TRACK NEWD DURG THE DAY ON WED. HOWEVER, WHILE THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES, THERE REMAINS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES AND SOME THE FINER DETAILS,
WHICH COULD PROVE IMPORTANT AS THE EVENT PLAYS OUT.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THE AREAS N AND W OF PHILADELPHIA HAVE
THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATION RELATED SNOW, WHICH
WILL IMPACT TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. SRN AND ERN AREAS SE OF THE I95
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY STAY ALL OR MOSTLY RAIN, SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PONDING OF RAIN ON
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS.

ADDITIONALLY, IT WAS QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AND WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
TODAY SO THE GROUND HAS IS WARM WHICH MAY NEGATE SOME ACCUMS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET ON ROADWAYS ETC, UNLESS THE SNOW COMES
DOWN HEAVY.

SO, ULTIMATELY IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT WILL WIN OUT IN THIS
AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W
FOR SOME MESOSCALE BANDING WHICH COULD INCREASE ANY SNOWFALL
RATES, BUT THIS IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO PREDICT MORE THAN A FEW
HOURS IN ADVANCE, AND AMOUNTS CAN VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THOSE AREAS
UNDER A BAND AND THOSE WHICH ARE NOT.

THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA WOULD BE FROM
BERKS COUNTY NEWD THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NW NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACRS ERN CANADA ON SUN AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT OR ERLY MON, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GUID IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT A
WAVE COULD FORM ON THIS FRONT ON MON, WHICH WOULD LINGER PRECIP CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...A PERIOD OF CIGS 4000-5000 FT IS DEVELOPING
ENEWD FROM NEAR INTERSTATE 95 EASTWARD (SEE NAM 900-800MB LAYER RH)
AND WILL CLEAR AWAY BY 21Z. OTRW CIRRUS CIGS THIS AFTN MAY BRIEFLY
THIN A BIT THIS EVENING. WNW WIND WILL GUST NEAR 20 KT FOR A TIME
TODAY.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS LOWERING TO 4000 FT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER
06Z THEN RAIN BEGINS AS PER THE TAFS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS TURN
NORTH NORTHEAST AFTER 06Z AND GUST 15 KT BY DAYBREAK.

WED AND WED EVENING... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW EXCEPT MAINLY SNOW AT KRDG/KABE. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND IFR CONDITIONS IN ALL SNOW SHOULD OCCUR FOR
A TIME WEDNESDAY IN THE I-95 TAF CORRIDOR FROM KTTN THROUGH KPNE
KPHL KILG.

PAVEMENT ACCUMULATIONS OF SEVERAL INCHES ARE EXPECTED AT KRDG AND
KABE AND EVEN SLOPPY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE AT KPHL.

THIS IS A WET SNOW WHERE IT OCCURS EXCEPT MORE CRYSTALLINE VCNTY
THE POCONOS WHERE IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COLDER!

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT IMPERFECT REGARDING PRECIPITATION
PHASE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IN THE PHILADELPHIA AREA. WE`LL RE-REVIEW
THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z/25 NAM CHANGES BY 15Z BUT THE 12Z/25 GFS THERMAL
PROFILES DO NOT! NO CONFIDENT ANSWER AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK....

THU...CONDS RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR
NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA SEAS ON THE ATLC WATERS WILL BRIEFLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
BELOW CRITERIA.  QUIET ON THE DE BAY WATERS TODAY.

EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A FULL BLOWN GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM
THE NC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY.
BOTH THE 06Z AND 12Z NAM ARE ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE
WINDS VCNTY 44009 AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY (NEAR 50 KT). WE WILL NOT
KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIND AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SCA WILL BE NEEDED
PROBABLY THU AFTN OR EVE.

FRI THROUGH SAT..WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG 1105
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1105
SHORT TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG 1105
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 1105
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 1105
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 251429
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THEN, A STORM WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER... FOR THOSE IN THE WATCH AREA...GET YOUR WORK/ERRANDS
DONE TODAY.

TODAY...LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTRAL APPS.
CIRRUS ON THE RRQ OF 250 JET AXISED NE-SW WEST OF THE APPS WITH
210 SPEED MAX`S MODELED ST LAWR VALLEY.

WET BULBS START LOWERING IN CAA WITH WESTERLY WIND GUST TO 20 KT.
NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO FORECAST.

TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST.

NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO ANY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I95 WED AFTN/EVE**

930 AM ESTF: FIRST WARNING ISSUANCE NOW AS STERLING UPGRADES AND
MOVES FASTER AS WELL. WE WONT CHANGE ANY SNOW TOTAL GRIDS AT THIS
TIME. WE CONTINUE MORE UNCERTAINTY SE OF THE WARNING BUT NAM PROFILE
IS COLDER AT PHL WHICH COULD MEAN 3 TO 6 INCHES THERE EVEN DURING
THE DAY. POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN I95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO E PA AND NW NJ COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM
WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ITS THAT 12 HOUR
WINDOW THAT IS GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY
THE HILLY AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FCST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITN THAT I THINK
IT WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS BELOW.

BARRING THE OFF LINE CHATTER OF AN IGW WHICH I DONT THINK WILL OCCUR
IN THIS SITN BECAUSE I THINK WE`RE LACKING A COUPLE OF ELEMENTS
INCLUDING SHORTENING WAVE LENGTH, THE SREF AND ECMWF MIX I THINK
HAVE BEEN STEADFAST ON ADVERTISING THIS EVENT. IF AN IGW WERE TO
OCCUR I DONT THINK TODAYS SCIENCE CAN BE SURE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE,
BUT PLEASE CORRECT ME. SUSPECT WE WONT KNOW TIL WED MORNING.

SO...AN INTENSIFYING 190M 12HR NEWD MOVING 500MB HFC COMBINES WITH
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ SEWD TO NEAR I95
DURING THE AFTN. ELEVATIONS CHANGE PTYPE FIRST.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP
BELOW THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES
BUT THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR ALLENTOWN PA (A VULNERABLE
RECORD).

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STORM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SERN CONUS CST ON
WED THEN TRACK NEWD DURG THE DAY ON WED. HOWEVER, WHILE THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES, THERE REMAINS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES AND SOME THE FINER DETAILS,
WHICH COULD PROVE IMPORTANT AS THE EVENT PLAYS OUT.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THE AREAS N AND W OF PHILADELPHIA HAVE
THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATION RELATED SNOW, WHICH
WILL IMPACT TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. SRN AND ERN AREAS SE OF THE I95
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY STAY ALL OR MOSTLY RAIN, SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PONDING OF RAIN ON ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHAT HAPPENS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS LOOK MARGINAL. CERTAINLY ABOVE FREEZING AT THE START OF THE
EVENT, COOLING DURING IT, BUT HOW MUCH. MODEL GUID VARIES AS TO
WHAT DEW POINTS WILL BE, AND HENCE WHEN THE PRECIP START WHERE THE
WET BULB ZERO WILL BE. A DEGREE OR TWO CAN MAKE A WORLD OF
DIFFERENCE HERE.

ADDITIONALLY, IT WAS QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AND WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
TODAY SO THE GROUND HAS IS WARM WHICH MAY NEGATE SOME ACCUMS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET ON ROADWAYS ETC, UNLESS THE SNOW COMES
DOWN HEAVY.

SO, ULTIMATELY IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT WILL WIN OUT IN THIS
AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W
FOR SOME MESOSCALE BANDING WHICH COULD INCREASE ANY SNOWFALL
RATES, BUT THIS IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO PREDICT MORE THAN A FEW
HOURS IN ADVANCE, AND AMOUNTS CAN VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THOSE AREAS
UNDER A BAND AND THOSE WHICH ARE NOT.

THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA WOULD BE FROM
BERKS COUNTY NEWD THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NW NJ.

PRECIPITATION ..SAID PRECIPITATION.. SINCE SOME AREAS THAT SNOW
FOR A TIME WED AFTN MAY END AS SPRINKLES WED EVENING, ESPECIALLY
I95 REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACRS ERN CANADA ON SUN AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT OR ERLY MON, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GUID IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT A
WAVE COULD FORM ON THIS FRONT ON MON, WHICH WOULD LINGER PRECIP CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. THROUGH THIS
TIME, EXPECT ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 10000 FT AGL.
WESTERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO 20KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS SLOWLY START TO LOWER. MOST TAF SITES FROM THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY AND FURTHER WEST (KPHL, KILG, KPNE, KTTN,
KABE, AND KRDG) WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS STAY IN THE VFR RANGE
THROUGH 12Z. AT KMIV AND KACY HOWEVER, THEY COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS
MOVE IN BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. IN ADDITION TO LOWER CEILINGS, AREAS OF
-RA COULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER 00Z AS WELL. HOWEVER, IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BEFORE 06Z. IF RA
DOES MOVE IN, COULD SEE VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO MVFR AT TIMES. AT
THIS TIME, KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 12Z.

WED AND WED EVENING... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDS, MAINLY WITH
CIGS BUT SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS
THAT SEE SNOW OR HVY RAIN.

FOR NRN AND WRN AREAS (KABE/KRDG)...MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE PRECIP WILL START OFF AS RAIN, WITH
TEMPS ABV FREEZING THEN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AND CHANGE OVER AT SOME
POINT WED AFTN OR EVE BEFORE ENDING. FOR SRN AND ERN AREAS PRECIP
WILL BE MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN. WIND WILL GUST IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE AS WELL, MAINLY FROM THE N. PRECIP SHUD END DURG WED EVE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT LOW ABOUT PRECIP TYPE ALG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

OUTLOOK....

THU...CONDS RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR
NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF SHORE BY SUNRISE. ONCE WINDS AND SEAS DO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THIS MORNING ON THE BAY, AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER
DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM THE NC
COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. THE 06Z
NAM IS ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS VCNTY 44009. WE
WILL NOT KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIND AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SCA WILL BE NEEDED
PROBABLY THU AFTN OR EVE.

FRI THROUGH SAT..WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...

UPDATED FOR THE WARNING IN WWA SECTION







000
FXUS61 KPHI 251429
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
929 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THEN, A STORM WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER... FOR THOSE IN THE WATCH AREA...GET YOUR WORK/ERRANDS
DONE TODAY.

TODAY...LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTRAL APPS.
CIRRUS ON THE RRQ OF 250 JET AXISED NE-SW WEST OF THE APPS WITH
210 SPEED MAX`S MODELED ST LAWR VALLEY.

WET BULBS START LOWERING IN CAA WITH WESTERLY WIND GUST TO 20 KT.
NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO FORECAST.

TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST.

NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO ANY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I95 WED AFTN/EVE**

930 AM ESTF: FIRST WARNING ISSUANCE NOW AS STERLING UPGRADES AND
MOVES FASTER AS WELL. WE WONT CHANGE ANY SNOW TOTAL GRIDS AT THIS
TIME. WE CONTINUE MORE UNCERTAINTY SE OF THE WARNING BUT NAM PROFILE
IS COLDER AT PHL WHICH COULD MEAN 3 TO 6 INCHES THERE EVEN DURING
THE DAY. POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN I95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO E PA AND NW NJ COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM
WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ITS THAT 12 HOUR
WINDOW THAT IS GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY
THE HILLY AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FCST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITN THAT I THINK
IT WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS BELOW.

BARRING THE OFF LINE CHATTER OF AN IGW WHICH I DONT THINK WILL OCCUR
IN THIS SITN BECAUSE I THINK WE`RE LACKING A COUPLE OF ELEMENTS
INCLUDING SHORTENING WAVE LENGTH, THE SREF AND ECMWF MIX I THINK
HAVE BEEN STEADFAST ON ADVERTISING THIS EVENT. IF AN IGW WERE TO
OCCUR I DONT THINK TODAYS SCIENCE CAN BE SURE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE,
BUT PLEASE CORRECT ME. SUSPECT WE WONT KNOW TIL WED MORNING.

SO...AN INTENSIFYING 190M 12HR NEWD MOVING 500MB HFC COMBINES WITH
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ SEWD TO NEAR I95
DURING THE AFTN. ELEVATIONS CHANGE PTYPE FIRST.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP
BELOW THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES
BUT THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR ALLENTOWN PA (A VULNERABLE
RECORD).

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STORM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SERN CONUS CST ON
WED THEN TRACK NEWD DURG THE DAY ON WED. HOWEVER, WHILE THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES, THERE REMAINS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES AND SOME THE FINER DETAILS,
WHICH COULD PROVE IMPORTANT AS THE EVENT PLAYS OUT.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THE AREAS N AND W OF PHILADELPHIA HAVE
THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATION RELATED SNOW, WHICH
WILL IMPACT TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. SRN AND ERN AREAS SE OF THE I95
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY STAY ALL OR MOSTLY RAIN, SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PONDING OF RAIN ON ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHAT HAPPENS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS LOOK MARGINAL. CERTAINLY ABOVE FREEZING AT THE START OF THE
EVENT, COOLING DURING IT, BUT HOW MUCH. MODEL GUID VARIES AS TO
WHAT DEW POINTS WILL BE, AND HENCE WHEN THE PRECIP START WHERE THE
WET BULB ZERO WILL BE. A DEGREE OR TWO CAN MAKE A WORLD OF
DIFFERENCE HERE.

ADDITIONALLY, IT WAS QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AND WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
TODAY SO THE GROUND HAS IS WARM WHICH MAY NEGATE SOME ACCUMS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET ON ROADWAYS ETC, UNLESS THE SNOW COMES
DOWN HEAVY.

SO, ULTIMATELY IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT WILL WIN OUT IN THIS
AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W
FOR SOME MESOSCALE BANDING WHICH COULD INCREASE ANY SNOWFALL
RATES, BUT THIS IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO PREDICT MORE THAN A FEW
HOURS IN ADVANCE, AND AMOUNTS CAN VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THOSE AREAS
UNDER A BAND AND THOSE WHICH ARE NOT.

THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA WOULD BE FROM
BERKS COUNTY NEWD THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NW NJ.

PRECIPITATION ..SAID PRECIPITATION.. SINCE SOME AREAS THAT SNOW
FOR A TIME WED AFTN MAY END AS SPRINKLES WED EVENING, ESPECIALLY
I95 REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACRS ERN CANADA ON SUN AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT OR ERLY MON, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GUID IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT A
WAVE COULD FORM ON THIS FRONT ON MON, WHICH WOULD LINGER PRECIP CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. THROUGH THIS
TIME, EXPECT ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 10000 FT AGL.
WESTERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO 20KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS SLOWLY START TO LOWER. MOST TAF SITES FROM THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY AND FURTHER WEST (KPHL, KILG, KPNE, KTTN,
KABE, AND KRDG) WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS STAY IN THE VFR RANGE
THROUGH 12Z. AT KMIV AND KACY HOWEVER, THEY COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS
MOVE IN BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. IN ADDITION TO LOWER CEILINGS, AREAS OF
-RA COULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER 00Z AS WELL. HOWEVER, IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BEFORE 06Z. IF RA
DOES MOVE IN, COULD SEE VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO MVFR AT TIMES. AT
THIS TIME, KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 12Z.

WED AND WED EVENING... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDS, MAINLY WITH
CIGS BUT SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS
THAT SEE SNOW OR HVY RAIN.

FOR NRN AND WRN AREAS (KABE/KRDG)...MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE PRECIP WILL START OFF AS RAIN, WITH
TEMPS ABV FREEZING THEN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AND CHANGE OVER AT SOME
POINT WED AFTN OR EVE BEFORE ENDING. FOR SRN AND ERN AREAS PRECIP
WILL BE MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN. WIND WILL GUST IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE AS WELL, MAINLY FROM THE N. PRECIP SHUD END DURG WED EVE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT LOW ABOUT PRECIP TYPE ALG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

OUTLOOK....

THU...CONDS RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR
NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF SHORE BY SUNRISE. ONCE WINDS AND SEAS DO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THIS MORNING ON THE BAY, AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER
DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM THE NC
COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. THE 06Z
NAM IS ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS VCNTY 44009. WE
WILL NOT KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIND AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SCA WILL BE NEEDED
PROBABLY THU AFTN OR EVE.

FRI THROUGH SAT..WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...

UPDATED FOR THE WARNING IN WWA SECTION






000
FXUS61 KPHI 251428
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
928 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THEN, A STORM WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER... FOR THOSE IN THE WATCH AREA...GET YOUR WORK/ERRANDS
DONE TODAY.

TODAY...LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTRAL APPS.
CIRRUS ON THE RRQ OF 250 JET AXISED NE-SW WEST OF THE APPS WITH
210 SPEED MAX`S MODELED ST LAWR VALLEY.

WET BULBS START LOWERING IN CAA WITH WESTERLY WIND GUST TO 20 KT.
NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO FORECAST.

TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST.

NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO ANY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I95 WED AFTN/EVE**

930 AM ESTF: FIRST WARNING ISSUANCE NOW AS STERLING UPGRADES AND
MOVES FASTER AS WELL. WE WONT CHANGE ANY SNOW TOTAL GRIDS AT THIS
TIME. WE CONTINUE MORE UNCERTAINTY SE OF THE WARNING BUT NAM PROFILE
IS COLDER AT PHL WHICH COULD MEAN 3 TO 6 INCHES THERE EVEN DURING
THE DAY. POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN I95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO E PA AND NW NJ COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM
WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ITS THAT 12 HOUR
WINDOW THAT IS GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY
THE HILLY AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FCST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITN THAT I THINK
IT WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS BELOW.

BARRING THE OFF LINE CHATTER OF AN IGW WHICH I DONT THINK WILL OCCUR
IN THIS SITN BECAUSE I THINK WE`RE LACKING A COUPLE OF ELEMENTS
INCLUDING SHORTENING WAVE LENGTH, THE SREF AND ECMWF MIX I THINK
HAVE BEEN STEADFAST ON ADVERTISING THIS EVENT. IF AN IGW WERE TO
OCCUR I DONT THINK TODAYS SCIENCE CAN BE SURE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE,
BUT PLEASE CORRECT ME. SUSPECT WE WONT KNOW TIL WED MORNING.

SO...AN INTENSIFYING 190M 12HR NEWD MOVING 500MB HFC COMBINES WITH
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ SEWD TO NEAR I95
DURING THE AFTN. ELEVATIONS CHANGE PTYPE FIRST.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP
BELOW THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES
BUT THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR ALLENTOWN PA (A VULNERABLE
RECORD).

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STORM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SERN CONUS CST ON
WED THEN TRACK NEWD DURG THE DAY ON WED. HOWEVER, WHILE THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES, THERE REMAINS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES AND SOME THE FINER DETAILS,
WHICH COULD PROVE IMPORTANT AS THE EVENT PLAYS OUT.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THE AREAS N AND W OF PHILADELPHIA HAVE
THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATION RELATED SNOW, WHICH
WILL IMPACT TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. SRN AND ERN AREAS SE OF THE I95
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY STAY ALL OR MOSTLY RAIN, SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PONDING OF RAIN ON ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHAT HAPPENS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS LOOK MARGINAL. CERTAINLY ABOVE FREEZING AT THE START OF THE
EVENT, COOLING DURING IT, BUT HOW MUCH. MODEL GUID VARIES AS TO
WHAT DEW POINTS WILL BE, AND HENCE WHEN THE PRECIP START WHERE THE
WET BULB ZERO WILL BE. A DEGREE OR TWO CAN MAKE A WORLD OF
DIFFERENCE HERE.

ADDITIONALLY, IT WAS QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AND WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
TODAY SO THE GROUND HAS IS WARM WHICH MAY NEGATE SOME ACCUMS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET ON ROADWAYS ETC, UNLESS THE SNOW COMES
DOWN HEAVY.

SO, ULTIMATELY IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT WILL WIN OUT IN THIS
AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W
FOR SOME MESOSCALE BANDING WHICH COULD INCREASE ANY SNOWFALL
RATES, BUT THIS IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO PREDICT MORE THAN A FEW
HOURS IN ADVANCE, AND AMOUNTS CAN VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THOSE AREAS
UNDER A BAND AND THOSE WHICH ARE NOT.

THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA WOULD BE FROM
BERKS COUNTY NEWD THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NW NJ.

PRECIPITATION ..SAID PRECIPITATION.. SINCE SOME AREAS THAT SNOW
FOR A TIME WED AFTN MAY END AS SPRINKLES WED EVENING, ESPECIALLY
I95 REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACRS ERN CANADA ON SUN AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT OR ERLY MON, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GUID IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT A
WAVE COULD FORM ON THIS FRONT ON MON, WHICH WOULD LINGER PRECIP CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. THROUGH THIS
TIME, EXPECT ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 10000 FT AGL.
WESTERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO 20KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS SLOWLY START TO LOWER. MOST TAF SITES FROM THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY AND FURTHER WEST (KPHL, KILG, KPNE, KTTN,
KABE, AND KRDG) WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS STAY IN THE VFR RANGE
THROUGH 12Z. AT KMIV AND KACY HOWEVER, THEY COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS
MOVE IN BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. IN ADDITION TO LOWER CEILINGS, AREAS OF
-RA COULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER 00Z AS WELL. HOWEVER, IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BEFORE 06Z. IF RA
DOES MOVE IN, COULD SEE VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO MVFR AT TIMES. AT
THIS TIME, KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 12Z.

WED AND WED EVENING... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDS, MAINLY WITH
CIGS BUT SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS
THAT SEE SNOW OR HVY RAIN.

FOR NRN AND WRN AREAS (KABE/KRDG)...MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE PRECIP WILL START OFF AS RAIN, WITH
TEMPS ABV FREEZING THEN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AND CHANGE OVER AT SOME
POINT WED AFTN OR EVE BEFORE ENDING. FOR SRN AND ERN AREAS PRECIP
WILL BE MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN. WIND WILL GUST IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE AS WELL, MAINLY FROM THE N. PRECIP SHUD END DURG WED EVE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT LOW ABOUT PRECIP TYPE ALG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

OUTLOOK....

THU...CONDS RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR
NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF SHORE BY SUNRISE. ONCE WINDS AND SEAS DO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THIS MORNING ON THE BAY, AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER
DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM THE NC
COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. THE 06Z
NAM IS ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS VCNTY 44009. WE
WILL NOT KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIND AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SCA WILL BE NEEDED
PROBABLY THU AFTN OR EVE.

FRI THROUGH SAT..WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 251428
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
928 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
THEN, A STORM WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST
TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD
EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE IT MOVES OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA WILL CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER... FOR THOSE IN THE WATCH AREA...GET YOUR WORK/ERRANDS
DONE TODAY.

TODAY...LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTRAL APPS.
CIRRUS ON THE RRQ OF 250 JET AXISED NE-SW WEST OF THE APPS WITH
210 SPEED MAX`S MODELED ST LAWR VALLEY.

WET BULBS START LOWERING IN CAA WITH WESTERLY WIND GUST TO 20 KT.
NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO FORECAST.

TONIGHT...RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO NORTH NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE HEADS NEWD FOR THE NC COAST.

NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME TO ANY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
**HIGH VISIBILITY HIGH IMPACT SNOW EVENT FOR ELEVATIONS OF E PA
 AND NW NJ 9A-9P AND LIKELY A DEVELOPING IMPACT EVENT TO NEAR SEA
 LEVEL JUST NW OF I95 WED AFTN/EVE**

930 AM ESTF: FIRST WARNING ISSUANCE NOW AS STERLING UPGRADES AND
MOVES FASTER AS WELL. WE WONT CHANGE ANY SNOW TOTAL GRIDS AT THIS
TIME. WE CONTINUE MORE UNCERTAINTY SE OF THE WARNING BUT NAM PROFILE
IS COLDER AT PHL WHICH COULD MEAN 3 TO 6 INCHES THERE EVEN DURING
THE DAY. POWER OUTAGES A CONCERN I95.

SUGGEST TRAVEL INTO E PA AND NW NJ COMPLETED NO LATER THAN 7 AM
WEDNESDAY, OR WAIT TIL AFTER 7 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ITS THAT 12 HOUR
WINDOW THAT IS GOING TO BECOME A SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL PROBLEM, ESPECIALLY
THE HILLY AREAS.

ITS UNUSUAL TO FCST HEAVY WET SNOW IN A 1000-500MB 543-546 THICKNESS
WITHOUT A BIG SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH BUT THIS IS A SITN THAT I THINK
IT WILL OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ELEVATIONS FOR REASONS BELOW.

BARRING THE OFF LINE CHATTER OF AN IGW WHICH I DONT THINK WILL OCCUR
IN THIS SITN BECAUSE I THINK WE`RE LACKING A COUPLE OF ELEMENTS
INCLUDING SHORTENING WAVE LENGTH, THE SREF AND ECMWF MIX I THINK
HAVE BEEN STEADFAST ON ADVERTISING THIS EVENT. IF AN IGW WERE TO
OCCUR I DONT THINK TODAYS SCIENCE CAN BE SURE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE,
BUT PLEASE CORRECT ME. SUSPECT WE WONT KNOW TIL WED MORNING.

SO...AN INTENSIFYING 190M 12HR NEWD MOVING 500MB HFC COMBINES WITH
ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT TO PULL 0-6KM 1C OR LESS WBZ SEWD TO NEAR I95
DURING THE AFTN. ELEVATIONS CHANGE PTYPE FIRST.

PIVA AND COMMA HEAD SUGGEST SOME BANDING POTENTIAL VCNTY KRDG TO
KMPO DURING THE DAY. THE MAX UVM RIGHT NOW IS TENDING TO SHOW UP
BELOW THE IDEAL DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IN THE MULTI MODEL PROFILES
BUT THAT CAN CHANGE.

A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR ALLENTOWN PA (A VULNERABLE
RECORD).

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OVERALL ON THE
EVOLUTION OF A STORM WHICH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SERN CONUS CST ON
WED THEN TRACK NEWD DURG THE DAY ON WED. HOWEVER, WHILE THERE IS
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES, THERE REMAINS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE THERMAL PROFILES AND SOME THE FINER DETAILS,
WHICH COULD PROVE IMPORTANT AS THE EVENT PLAYS OUT.

IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THE AREAS N AND W OF PHILADELPHIA HAVE
THE BEST SHOT OF SEEING SUBSTANTIAL ELEVATION RELATED SNOW, WHICH
WILL IMPACT TRAVEL SIGNIFICANTLY. SRN AND ERN AREAS SE OF THE I95
CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY STAY ALL OR MOSTLY RAIN, SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PONDING OF RAIN ON ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE IN THESE LOCATIONS.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK IS WHAT HAPPENS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS LOOK MARGINAL. CERTAINLY ABOVE FREEZING AT THE START OF THE
EVENT, COOLING DURING IT, BUT HOW MUCH. MODEL GUID VARIES AS TO
WHAT DEW POINTS WILL BE, AND HENCE WHEN THE PRECIP START WHERE THE
WET BULB ZERO WILL BE. A DEGREE OR TWO CAN MAKE A WORLD OF
DIFFERENCE HERE.

ADDITIONALLY, IT WAS QUITE WARM ON MONDAY AND WILL BE FAIRLY WARM
TODAY SO THE GROUND HAS IS WARM WHICH MAY NEGATE SOME ACCUMS,
ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET ON ROADWAYS ETC, UNLESS THE SNOW COMES
DOWN HEAVY.

SO, ULTIMATELY IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT WILL WIN OUT IN THIS
AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W
FOR SOME MESOSCALE BANDING WHICH COULD INCREASE ANY SNOWFALL
RATES, BUT THIS IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO PREDICT MORE THAN A FEW
HOURS IN ADVANCE, AND AMOUNTS CAN VARY WIDELY BETWEEN THOSE AREAS
UNDER A BAND AND THOSE WHICH ARE NOT.

THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO REACH HEADLINE CRITERIA WOULD BE FROM
BERKS COUNTY NEWD THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY INTO NW NJ.

PRECIPITATION ..SAID PRECIPITATION.. SINCE SOME AREAS THAT SNOW
FOR A TIME WED AFTN MAY END AS SPRINKLES WED EVENING, ESPECIALLY
I95 REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

LOW PRES WILL MOVE ACRS ERN CANADA ON SUN AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT OR ERLY MON, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. GUID IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT A
WAVE COULD FORM ON THIS FRONT ON MON, WHICH WOULD LINGER PRECIP CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. THROUGH THIS
TIME, EXPECT ONLY HIGH CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 10000 FT AGL.
WESTERLY WINDS COULD GUST TO 20KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY.

AFTER 00Z...CEILINGS SLOWLY START TO LOWER. MOST TAF SITES FROM THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY AND FURTHER WEST (KPHL, KILG, KPNE, KTTN,
KABE, AND KRDG) WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS STAY IN THE VFR RANGE
THROUGH 12Z. AT KMIV AND KACY HOWEVER, THEY COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS
MOVE IN BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z. IN ADDITION TO LOWER CEILINGS, AREAS OF
-RA COULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER 00Z AS WELL. HOWEVER, IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED BEFORE 06Z. IF RA
DOES MOVE IN, COULD SEE VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO MVFR AT TIMES. AT
THIS TIME, KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 12Z.

WED AND WED EVENING... WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDS, MAINLY WITH
CIGS BUT SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS
THAT SEE SNOW OR HVY RAIN.

FOR NRN AND WRN AREAS (KABE/KRDG)...MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED.
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, THE PRECIP WILL START OFF AS RAIN, WITH
TEMPS ABV FREEZING THEN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AND CHANGE OVER AT SOME
POINT WED AFTN OR EVE BEFORE ENDING. FOR SRN AND ERN AREAS PRECIP
WILL BE MOSTLY OR ALL RAIN. WIND WILL GUST IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
RANGE AS WELL, MAINLY FROM THE N. PRECIP SHUD END DURG WED EVE.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ABOUT THE EVENT, BUT LOW ABOUT PRECIP TYPE ALG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

OUTLOOK....

THU...CONDS RETURN TO VFR AND WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR
NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY MAINLY JUST N OF KRDG AND KABE. WINDS MAY
GUST TO 25 KT.

FRI THRU SAT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO DECREASE ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES
OFF SHORE BY SUNRISE. ONCE WINDS AND SEAS DO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THIS MORNING ON THE BAY, AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW. BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, GALE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS.

WED...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER
DELAWARE BAY PER AN INTENSIFYING STORM MOVING NEWD FROM THE NC
COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY. THE 06Z
NAM IS ADVERTISING A PERIOD OF STORM FORCE WINDS VCNTY 44009. WE
WILL NOT KNOW FOR SURE SINCE NO 44009 WIND DATA.

WED NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY, THEN SEAS AND WIND
WILL DECREASE AND AND SCA WILL BE LIKELY NEEDED AS THE STORM MOVES
NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD.

OUTLOOK...

THU...WIND AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BUT SCA WILL BE NEEDED
PROBABLY THU AFTN OR EVE.

FRI THROUGH SAT..WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
REGARDING THE MIDWEEK COASTAL STORM BRINGING SNOW TO A LARGE
PORTION OF OUR REGION, WE HAVE INCLUDED DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
BELOW FOR OUR FOUR PRIMARY CLIMATE SITES THAT HAVE A LONG-STANDING
UNBROKEN PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) WITH RESPECT TO HISTORICAL
SNOWFALL DATA.



DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS:

NOVEMBER 26TH:               NOVEMBER 27TH:       PERIOD OF RECORD:

ACY: TRACE 1977,1957,1955    1.2 INCHES 1978            1874

PHL: 6.0 INCHES 1898         6.9 INCHES 1949,1938       1872

ILG: 0.1 INCHES 1950         4.5 INCHES 1978            1894

ABE: 1.7 INCHES 1925         7.0 INCHES 1938            1922

OTHER COOPERATIVE SITE SHORTER HISTORICAL RECORD CAN BE FOUND AT
THE NWS MOUNT HOLLY WEBSITE UNDER NOW DATA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ054-055.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ060>062-101-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ009.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ010-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...







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