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000
FXUS61 KPHI 312339
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
739 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL ORGANIZE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...STRONG 180 M HFC ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT
MOVING DOWN INTO GA/SC EARLY SATURDAY WILL PERMIT CONSIDERABLE
LIFT TO DEVELOP IN OUR AREA LATE AS VORTICITY ALOFT STRETCHES
NORTHWARD. RAIN MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOUNDARY
LAYER APPEARS TOO WARM FOR SNOW AND SLEET IN THE POCONOS.

SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE WEATHER ELEMENT THROUGH THE
MID-EVENING HOURS...WITH RAIN GETTING GRADUALLY HEAVY THEREAFTER.

GUSTY NE WINDS TO 25 MPH DEVELOP MONMOUTH COUNTY COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z NCEP MOS GUIDANCE BUT TRENDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS MAV DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
PLENTY OF CYCLONIC MOIST INFLOW AND RATHER UNSTABLE SHOULD WRING
OUT PRETTY DECENT PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS. CHILLY.

NOTING LARGE TT OF NEARLY 55C AND SWI -1C AND KI NEAR 29C LOWER PART
OF DELMARVA SATURDAY MORNING. COULD BE ISOLATED THUNDER BUT NOT IN
GRIDS.

TEMPS: LOWERED THE 50 50 BLENDED 12Z NCEP MOS GUIDANCE PER THE
12Z/31 ECMWF AND THE DRIER DEWPOINTS FILTERING SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20-30 MPH...MAY GUST 40 MPH NEAREST 2-5 MILES OF
THE COAST BUT NO WIND ADVY ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WINDY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
* FAIR WEATHER MON THRU WED WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING EACH DAY.
* A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

OVERVIEW...

THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION /NAO/ IS PROJECTED TO ENTER A POSITIVE
PHASE BEGINNING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS FAVORS A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE ERN CONUS. AS
THE OCEAN LOW IMPACTING THE REGION THIS WEEKEND MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE ERN
CONUS SIGNALING THE RETURN TO A POSITIVE NAO...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
ARISE IN THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENTERING THE UPPER MS
VALLEY BY MID-WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE EURO AND GFS HAVE BEEN IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE GOING BACK AT LEAST THREE DAYS...
NEITHER MODEL HAS SHOWN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AT THIS POINT.

THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS INCREASE BETWEEN 12Z/TUE AND
12Z/THU WITH REGARD TO THE AMPLITUDE AND PLACEMENT OF THE MS VALLEY
TROUGH AND THIS WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
CENTERED AROUND THE THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THE GEFS INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS REPRESENT THIS UNCERTAINTY WELL WITH THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...ONE CAMP CLUSTERING OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
THE OTHER CAMP CLUSTERING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. AT THIS POINT...
WILL TAKE THE CONSENSUS APPROACH...AND USE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
WHICH IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS EAST OF NEW ENG AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE 40 TO 45 KNOT RANGE AT 850 HPA...AND WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WILL BE ABLE TO REALIZE SOME OF THAT MOMENTUM AT THE SURFACE
IN GUSTS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, COASTLINE AND OFFSHORE
WATERS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CYCLONIC AND THE COLUMN GRADUALLY DRIES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WITH PVA REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
STRONG DOWNSLOPING FLOW...NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

MONDAY...THERE WILL STILL BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLY IN THE
DAY WITH LAPSE RATES INDICATING MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO ABOUT 950 HPA
WHERE 25 KNOT WINDS RESIDE. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECTING A DRY DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE AREA IN CONCERT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THIS MAY ALLOW A WARM FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...IF THE PROJECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING
ON THURSDAY HOLDS...WEDNESDAY COULD BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE.
CHANCE OF IFR CONDS IN NJ. N-NE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT. CHANCE OF A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AFTER 05Z/01.

SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST INCLUDING KACY AND KMIV AND
POSSIBLY BACK TO KPHL AND KILG DURING THE MORNING-MIDDAY IN
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...LLWS MAY BE AN ISSUE AT THE TERMINALS DUE TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SCA N-NE WIND CONDITIONS DEVELOP BUT THE HEADLINE IS
SUPERSEDED BY TOMORROWS GALE WARNING.

SATURDAY...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATERS BY 6PM SATURDAY
WITH VARIOUS STARTING TIMES. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MARGINAL
GALE BEGINS VICINITY 44065 (NNJ WATERS) NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND
THEN SPREADS SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS INCREASING 5 KT
EVERYWHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE SPOTTY GALE GUSTS
DURING THE LATE MORNING EVEN IN DELAWARE BAY.

GALE WATCH UPPER DE BAY CHANGED TO A WARNING AT THE 330 PM ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 45 KT.
SEAS AS HIGH AS 10FT POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

MONDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS DOWN THE SHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG BOTH THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S HIGH TIDE...AND PERHAPS AGAIN AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TOTAL WATER LEVELS (ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE PLUS THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES CAUSED BY THE STORM) FROM ATLANTIC
CITY SOUTH THROUGH LEWES DE HAVE A GOOD PROBABILITY OF BEING HIGH
ENOUGH DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S HIGH TIDE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY
STATEMENT...SO ONE HAS BEEN ISSUED. RIGHT NOW CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT WHILE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN
MIDDLESEX...MONMOUTH...AND OCEAN COUNTIES...TOTAL WATER LEVELS WILL
PEAK JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA. THIS COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL, SO RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF UPDATED
FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS.

RIGHT NOW ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE DELAWARE
BAY, WITH POCKETS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UP THROUGH REEDY POINT. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME IN THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER...INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA.

NO PROBLEMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE SHORES OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AFFECTING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NJZ022>025.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     DEZ003-004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/FRANCK/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MIKETTA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/MIKETTA
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA









000
FXUS61 KPHI 312047
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
447 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL ORGANIZE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP MONMOUTH/OCEAN
COUNTIES...AND BECOME HEAVIER SHOWERS TOWARD 6 PM. WE SEE AN OB OF
SPRINKLES AT KWRI BUT UNSURE OF IT.

TONIGHT...STRONG 180 M HFC ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT MOVING
DOWN INTO GA/SC EARLY SATURDAY WILL PERMIT CONSIDERABLE LIFT TO
DEVELOP IN OUR AREA LATE AS VORTICITY ALOFT STRETCHES NORTHWARD.
RAIN MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS
TOO WARM FOR SNOW AND SLEET IN THE POCONOS.

GUSTY NE WINDS TO 25 MPH DEVELOP MONMOUTH COUNTY COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z NCEP MOS GUIDANCE BUT TRENDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS MAV DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
PLENTY OF CYCLONIC MOIST INFLOW AND RATHER UNSTABLE SHOULD WRING
OUT PRETTY DECENT PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS. CHILLY.

NOTING LARGE TT OF NEARLY 55C AND SWI -1C AND KI NEAR 29C LOWER PART
OF DELMARVA SATURDAY MORNING. COULD BE ISOLATED THUNDER BUT NOT IN
GRIDS.

TEMPS: LOWERED THE 50 50 BLENDED 12Z NCEP MOS GUIDANCE PER THE
12Z/31 ECMWF AND THE DRIER DEWPOINTS FILTERING SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20-30 MPH...MAY GUST 40 MPH NEAREST 2-5 MILES OF
THE COAST BUT NO WIND ADVY ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* WINDY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
* FAIR WEATHER MON THRU WED WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING EACH DAY.
* A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

OVERVIEW...

THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION /NAO/ IS PROJECTED TO ENTER A POSITIVE
PHASE BEGINNING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS FAVORS A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE ERN CONUS. AS
THE OCEAN LOW IMPACTING THE REGION THIS WEEKEND MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE ERN
CONUS SIGNALING THE RETURN TO A POSITIVE NAO...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
ARISE IN THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENTERING THE UPPER MS
VALLEY BY MID-WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE EURO AND GFS HAVE BEEN IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE GOING BACK AT LEAST THREE DAYS...
NEITHER MODEL HAS SHOWN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AT THIS POINT.

THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS INCREASE BETWEEN 12Z/TUE AND
12Z/THU WITH REGARD TO THE AMPLITUDE AND PLACEMENT OF THE MS VALLEY
TROUGH AND THIS WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
CENTERED AROUND THE THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THE GEFS INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS REPRESENT THIS UNCERTAINTY WELL WITH THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...ONE CAMP CLUSTERING OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
THE OTHER CAMP CLUSTERING OVER THE APPALACHIANS. AT THIS POINT...
WILL TAKE THE CONSENSUS APPROACH...AND USE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
WHICH IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS EAST OF NEW ENG AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE 40 TO 45 KNOT RANGE AT 850 HPA...AND WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WILL BE ABLE TO REALIZE SOME OF THAT MOMENTUM AT THE SURFACE
IN GUSTS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, COASTLINE AND OFFSHORE
WATERS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CYCLONIC AND THE COLUMN GRADUALLY DRIES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WITH PVA REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
STRONG DOWNSLOPING FLOW...NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

MONDAY...THERE WILL STILL BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLY IN THE
DAY WITH LAPSE RATES INDICATING MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO ABOUT 950 HPA
WHERE 25 KNOT WINDS RESIDE. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECTING A DRY DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE AREA IN CONCERT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THIS MAY ALLOW A WARM FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...IF THE PROJECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING
ON THURSDAY HOLDS...WEDNESDAY COULD BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR CIGS OVERSPREADING AOA 3500 FT. SPOTTY MVFR
CIGS IN NJ. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE.
CHANCE OF IFR CONDS IN NJ. N-NE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT. CHANCE OF A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AFTER 05Z/01.

SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST INCLUDING KACY AND KMIV AND
POSSIBLY BACK TO KPHL AND KILG DURING THE MORNING-MIDDAY IN
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...LLWS MAY BE AN ISSUE AT THE TERMINALS DUE TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SCA N-NE WIND CONDITIONS DEVELOP BUT THE HEADLINE IS
SUPERSEDED BY TOMORROWS GALE WARNING.

SATURDAY...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATERS BY 6PM SATURDAY
WITH VARIOUS STARTING TIMES. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MARGINAL
GALE BEGINS VICINITY 44065 (NNJ WATERS) NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND
THEN SPREADS SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS INCREASING 5 KT
EVERYWHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE SPOTTY GALE GUSTS
DURING THE LATE MORNING EVEN IN DELAWARE BAY.

GALE WATCH UPPER DE BAY CHANGED TO A WARNING AT THE 330 PM ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 45 KT.
SEAS AS HIGH AS 10FT POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

MONDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS DOWN THE SHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG BOTH THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S HIGH TIDE...AND PERHAPS AGAIN AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TOTAL WATER LEVELS (ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE PLUS THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES CAUSED BY THE STORM) FROM ATLANTIC
CITY SOUTH THROUGH LEWES DE HAVE A GOOD PROBABILITY OF BEING HIGH
ENOUGH DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S HIGH TIDE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY
STATEMENT...SO ONE HAS BEEN ISSUED. RIGHT NOW CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT WHILE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN
MIDDLESEX...MONMOUTH...AND OCEAN COUNTIES...TOTAL WATER LEVELS WILL
PEAK JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA. THIS COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL, SO RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF UPDATED
FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS.

RIGHT NOW ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE DELAWARE
BAY, WITH POCKETS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UP THROUGH REEDY POINT. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME IN THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER...INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA.

NO PROBLEMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE SHORES OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AFFECTING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NJZ022>025.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     DEZ003-004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 312016
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
416 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL ORGANIZE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP MONMOUTH/OCEAN
COUNTIES...AND BECOME HEAVIER SHOWERS TOWARD 6 PM. WE SEE AN OB OF
SPRINKLES AT KWRI BUT UNSURE OF IT.

TONIGHT...STRONG 180 M HFC ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT MOVING
DOWN INTO GA/SC EARLY SATURDAY WILL PERMIT CONSIDERABLE LIFT TO
DEVELOP IN OUR AREA LATE AS VORTICITY ALOFT STRETCHES NORTHWARD.
RAIN MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS
TOO WARM FOR SNOW AND SLEET IN THE POCONOS.

GUSTY NE WINDS TO 25 MPH DEVELOP MONMOUTH COUNTY COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z NCEP MOS GUIDANCE BUT TRENDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS MAV DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
PLENTY OF CYCLONIC MOIST INFLOW AND RATHER UNSTABLE SHOULD WRING
OUT PRETTY DECENT PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS. CHILLY.

NOTING LARGE TT OF NEARLY 55C AND SWI -1C AND KI NEAR 29C LOWER PART
OF DELMARVA SATURDAY MORNING. COULD BE ISOLATED THUNDER BUT NOT IN
GRIDS.

TEMPS: LOWERED THE 50 50 BLENDED 12Z NCEP MOS GUIDANCE PER THE
12Z/31 ECMWF AND THE DRIER DEWPOINTS FILTERING SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20-30 MPH...MAY GUST 40 MPH NEAREST 2-5 MILES OF
THE COAST BUT NO WIND ADVY ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* WINDY WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
* FAIR WEATHER MON THRU WED WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING EACH DAY.
* A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

OVERVIEW...

THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILATION /NAO/ IS PROJECTED TO ENTER A POSITIVE
PHASE BEGINING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS FAVORS A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE ERN CONUS. AS
THE OCEAN LOW IMPACTING THE REGION THIS WEEKEND MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY...HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE ERN
CONUS SIGNALING THE RETURN TO A POSITIVE NAO...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
ARISE IN THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ENTERING THE UPPER MS
VALLEY BY MID-WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE EURO AND GFS HAVE BEEN IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FEATURE GOING BACK AT LEAST THREE DAYS...
NEITHER MODEL HAS SHOWN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AT THIS POINT.

THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE MODEL SOLUTINS INCREASE BETWEEN 12Z/TUE AND
12Z/THU WITH REGARD TO THE AMPLITUDE AND PLACEMENT OF THE MS VALLEY
TROUGH AND THIS WILL HAVE A DIRECT IMPACT THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT
CENTERED AROUND THE THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THE GEFS INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS REPRESENT THIS UNCERTAINTY WELL WITH THEIR PLACEMENT OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...ONE CAMP CLUSTERING OVER THE MS VALLEY AND
THE OTHER CAMP CLUSTERING OVER THE APPLACHIANS. AT THIS POINT...
WILL TAKE THE CONSENSUS APPROACH...AND USE THE ENSEMBLE MEAN
WHICH IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE.

DAILIES...

SUNDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ON SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS EAST OF NEW ENG AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE 40 TO 45 KNOT RANGE AT 850 HPA...AND WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...WILL BE ABLE TO REALIZE SOME OF THAT MOMENTUM AT THE SURFACE
IN GUSTS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, COASTLINE AND OFFSHORE
WATERS. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CYCLONIC AND THE COLUMN GRADUALLY DRIES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WITH PVA REMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST AND A
STRONG DOWNSLOPING FLOW...NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

MONDAY...THERE WILL STILL BE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLY IN THE
DAY WITH LAPSE RATES INDICATING MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO ABOUT 950 HPA
WHERE 25 KNOT WINDS RESIDE. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECTING A DRY DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS.

TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE AREA IN CONCERT WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THIS MAY ALLOW A WARM FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...IF THE PROJECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING
ON THURSDAY HOLDS...WEDNESDAY COULD BE UNSEASONABLY WARM...FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR CIGS OVERSPREADING AOA 3500 FT. SPOTTY MVFR
CIGS IN NJ. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE.
CHANCE OF IFR CONDS IN NJ. N-NE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT. CHANCE OF A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AFTER 05Z/01.

SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST INCLUDING KACY AND KMIV AND
POSSIBLY BACK TO KPHL AND KILG DURING THE MORNING-MIDDAY IN
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...LLWS MAY BE AN ISSUE AT THE TERMINALS DUE TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
OTHWERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SCA N-NE WIND CONDITIONS DEVELOP BUT THE HEADLINE IS
SUPERSEDED BY TOMORROWS GALE WARNING.

SATURDAY...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATERS BY 6PM SATURDAY
WITH VARIOUS STARTING TIMES. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MARGINAL
GALE BEGINS VICINITY 44065 (NNJ WATERS) NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND
THEN SPREADS SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS INCREASING 5 KT
EVERYWHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE SPOTTY GALE GUSTS
DURING THE LATE MORNING EVEN IN DELAWARE BAY.

GALE WATCH UPPER DE BAY CHANGED TO A WARNING AT THE 330 PM ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 45 KT.
SEAS AS HIGH AS 10FT POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

MONDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT MAY MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY...EXPECTING WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS DOWN THE SHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG BOTH THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S HIGH TIDE...AND PERHAPS AGAIN AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TOTAL WATER LEVELS (ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE PLUS THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES CAUSED BY THE STORM) FROM ATLANTIC
CITY SOUTH THROUGH LEWES DE HAVE A GOOD PROBABILITY OF BEING HIGH
ENOUGH DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S HIGH TIDE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY
STATEMENT...SO ONE HAS BEEN ISSUED. RIGHT NOW CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT WHILE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN
MIDDLESEX...MONMOUTH...AND OCEAN COUNTIES...TOTAL WATER LEVELS WILL
PEAK JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA. THIS COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL, SO RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF UPDATED
FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS.

RIGHT NOW ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE DELAWARE
BAY, WITH POCKETS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UP THROUGH REEDY POINT. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME IN THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER...INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA.

NO PROBLEMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE SHORES OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AFFECTING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NJZ022>025.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     DEZ003-004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 311908
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
308 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL ORGANIZE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP MONMOUTH/OCEAN
COUNTIES...AND BECOME HEAVIER SHOWERS TOWARD 6 PM. WE SEE AN OB OF
SPRINKLES AT KWRI BUT UNSURE OF IT.

TONIGHT...STRONG 180 M HFC ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT MOVING
DOWN INTO GA/SC EARLY SATURDAY WILL PERMIT CONSIDERABLE LIFT TO
DEVELOP IN OUR AREA LATE AS VORTICITY ALOFT STRETCHES NORTHWARD.
RAIN MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS
TOO WARM FOR SNOW AND SLEET IN THE POCONOS.

GUSTY NE WINDS TO 25 MPH DEVELOP MONMOUTH COUNTY COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z NCEP MOS GUIDANCE BUT TRENDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS MAV DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
PLENTY OF CYCLONIC MOIST INFLOW AND RATHER UNSTABLE SHOULD WRING
OUT PRETTY DECENT PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS. CHILLY.

NOTING LARGE TT OF NEARLY 55C AND SWI -1C AND KI NEAR 29C LOWER PART
OF DELMARVA SATURDAY MORNING. COULD BE ISOLATED THUNDER BUT NOT IN
GRIDS.

TEMPS: LOWERED THE 50 50 BLENDED 12Z NCEP MOS GUIDANCE PER THE
12Z/31 ECMWF AND THE DRIER DEWPOINTS FILTERING SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20-30 MPH...MAY GUST 40 MPH NEAREST 2-5 MILES OF
THE COAST BUT NO WIND ADVY ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE BISECTING THE
REGION. ALSO A MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING. INSTEAD, THE
STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
WHEN THE TIGHTEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE OVER
THE REGION. ALSO, 6 HR PRESSURE RISES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE
FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 MB, WHILE NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE
AS THE 10MB PLUS PRESSURE RISES WELL OFF THE COAST THAT THE MODELS
SHOW, IT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A SMALL COMPONENT OF AN ISALLOBARIC
WIND. HAVING SAID ALL THAT HOWEVER, BASED ON LOCAL HIGH WIND
GUIDANCE WE STILL APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOWER END OF A WIND ADVISORY
THREAT EVEN ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE, WILL JUST KEEP MENTION IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES BY
SUNDAY SHOULD BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES. STILL EXPECTING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION TO
BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRECIP...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIP, WHICH WILL MAINLY BE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH SOME
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS PERIOD, ALL OF THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING, SO PRECIP TYPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN. FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, THE MELTING LAYER
THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 4000 FT AGL.
WITH SUCH A DEEP WARM LAYER, EVEN FLURRIES ARE VERY UNLIKELY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE REGION. STILL EXPECT A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE TO BOTH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES. HOWEVER, INTERESTINGLY, THE GFS IS NOW
SHOWING A MUCH MORE DRAMATIC WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IF THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WILL STALL WEST OF THE
REGION UNTIL LATE THURSDAY WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SE
TOWARD THE REGION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR CIGS OVERSPREADING AOA 3500 FT. SPOTTY MVFR
CIGS IN NJ. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE.
CHANCE OF IFR CONDS IN NJ. N-NE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT. CHANCE OF A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AFTER 05Z/01.

SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST INCLUDING KACY AND KMIV AND
POSSIBLY BACK TO KPHL AND KILG DURING THE MORNING-MIDDAY IN
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST. BREEZY NORTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SCA N-NE WIND CONDITIONS DEVELOP BUT THE HEADLINE IS
SUPERSEDED BY TOMORROWS GALE WARNING.

SATURDAY...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATERS BY 6PM SATURDAY
WITH VARIOUS STARTING TIMES. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MARGINAL
GALE BEGINS VICINITY 44065 (NNJ WATERS) NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND
THEN SPREADS SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS INCREASING 5 KT
EVERYWHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE SPOTTY GALE GUSTS
DURING THE LATE MORNING EVEN IN DELAWARE BAY.

GALE WATCH UPPER DE BAY CHANGED TO A WARNING AT THE 330 PM ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 45
KT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 10FT POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. ON THE
UPPER DELAWARE BAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS EXPECTED PRIMARILY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS DOWN THE SHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG BOTH THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S HIGH TIDE...AND PERHAPS AGAIN AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TOTAL WATER LEVELS (ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE PLUS THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES CAUSED BY THE STORM) FROM ATLANTIC
CITY SOUTH THROUGH LEWES DE HAVE A GOOD PROBABILITY OF BEING HIGH
ENOUGH DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S HIGH TIDE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY
STATEMENT...SO ONE HAS BEEN ISSUED. RIGHT NOW CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT WHILE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN
MIDDLESEX...MONMOUTH...AND OCEAN COUNTIES...TOTAL WATER LEVELS WILL
PEAK JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA. THIS COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL, SO RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF UPDATED
FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS.

RIGHT NOW ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE DELAWARE
BAY, WITH POCKETS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UP THROUGH REEDY POINT. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME IN THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER...INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA.

NO PROBLEMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE SHORES OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AFFECTING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NJZ022>025.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     DEZ003-004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON EDT SATURDAY TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KPHI 311907
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
307 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS WILL ORGANIZE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND CREST OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. A
WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP MONMOUTH/OCEAN
COUNTIES...AND BECOME HEAVIER SHOWERS TOWARD 6 PM. WE SEE AN OB OF
SPRINKLES AT KWRI BUT UNSURE OF IT.

TONIGHT...STRONG 180 M HFC ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED LOW ALOFT MOVING
DOWN INTO GA/SC EARLY SATURDAY WILL PERMIT CONSIDERABLE LIFT TO
DEVELOP IN OUR AREA LATE AS VORTICITY ALOFT STRETCHES NORTHWARD.
RAIN MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS
TOO WARM FOR SNOW AND SLEET IN THE POCONOS.

GUSTY NE WINDS TO 25 MPH DEVELOP MONMOUTH COUNTY COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z NCEP MOS GUIDANCE BUT TRENDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY
WARMER GFS MAV DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
PLENTY OF CYCLONIC MOIST INFLOW AND RATHER UNSTABLE SHOULD WRING
OUT PRETTY DECENT PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS. CHILLY.

NOTING LARGE TT OF NEARLY 55C AND SWI -1C AND KI NEAR 29C LOWER PART
OF DELMARVA SATURDAY MORNING. COULD BE ISOLATED THUNDER BUT NOT IN
GRIDS.

TEMPS: LOWERED THE 50 50 BLENDED 12Z NCEP MOS GUIDANCE PER THE
12Z/31 ECMWF AND THE DRIER DEWPOINTS FILTERING SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20-30 MPH...MAY GUST 40 MPH NEAREST 2-5 MILES OF
THE COAST BUT NO WIND ADVY ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE BISECTING THE
REGION. ALSO A MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING. INSTEAD, THE
STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
WHEN THE TIGHTEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE OVER
THE REGION. ALSO, 6 HR PRESSURE RISES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE
FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 MB, WHILE NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE
AS THE 10MB PLUS PRESSURE RISES WELL OFF THE COAST THAT THE MODELS
SHOW, IT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A SMALL COMPONENT OF AN ISALLOBARIC
WIND. HAVING SAID ALL THAT HOWEVER, BASED ON LOCAL HIGH WIND
GUIDANCE WE STILL APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOWER END OF A WIND ADVISORY
THREAT EVEN ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE, WILL JUST KEEP MENTION IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES BY
SUNDAY SHOULD BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES. STILL EXPECTING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION TO
BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRECIP...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIP, WHICH WILL MAINLY BE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH SOME
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS PERIOD, ALL OF THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING, SO PRECIP TYPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN. FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, THE MELTING LAYER
THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 4000 FT AGL.
WITH SUCH A DEEP WARM LAYER, EVEN FLURRIES ARE VERY UNLIKELY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE REGION. STILL EXPECT A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE TO BOTH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES. HOWEVER, INTERESTINGLY, THE GFS IS NOW
SHOWING A MUCH MORE DRAMATIC WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IF THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WILL STALL WEST OF THE
REGION UNTIL LATE THURSDAY WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SE
TOWARD THE REGION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR CIGS OVERSPREADING AOA 3500 FT. SPOTTY MVFR
CIGS IN NJ. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 15 KT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE.
CHANCE OF IFR CONDS IN NJ. N-NE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT. CHANCE OF A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AFTER 05Z/01.

SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST INCLUDING KACY AND KMIV AND
POSSIBLY BACK TO KPHL AND KILG DURING THE MORNING-MIDDAY IN
PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST. BREEZY NORTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SCA N-NE WIND CONDITIONS DEVELOP BUT THE HEADLINE IS
SUPERSEDED BY TOMORROWS GALE WARNING.

SATURDAY...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL WATERS BY 6PM SATURDAY
WITH VARIOUS STARTING TIMES. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MARGINAL
GALE BEGINS VICINITY 44065 (NNJ WATERS) NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND
THEN SPREADS SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS INCREASING 5 KT
EVERYWHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE SPOTTY GALE GUSTS
DURING THE LATE MORNING EVEN IN DELAWARE BAY.

GALE WATCH UPPER DE BAY CHANGED TO A WARNING AT THE 330 PM ISSUANCE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 45
KT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 10FT POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. ON THE
UPPER DELAWARE BAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS EXPECTED PRIMARILY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS DOWN THE SHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG BOTH THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S HIGH TIDE...AND PERHAPS AGAIN AT THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TOTAL WATER LEVELS (ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE PLUS THE POSITIVE ANOMALIES CAUSED BY THE STORM) FROM ATLANTIC
CITY SOUTH THROUGH LEWES DE HAVE A GOOD PROBABILITY OF BEING HIGH
ENOUGH DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON/S HIGH TIDE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY
STATEMENT...SO ONE HAS BEEN ISSUED. RIGHT NOW CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT WHILE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN
MIDDLESEX...MONMOUTH...AND OCEAN COUNTIES...TOTAL WATER LEVELS WILL
PEAK JUST SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA. THIS COULD BE A CLOSE
CALL, SO RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF UPDATED
FORECASTS AND ADVISORIES AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS.

RIGHT NOW ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE DELAWARE
BAY, WITH POCKETS OF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AT THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING UP THROUGH REEDY POINT. NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME IN THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER...INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA.

NO PROBLEMS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ALONG THE SHORES OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AFFECTING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER PORTIONS OF THE
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ431-454-455.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/JOHNSON 307
NEAR TERM...DRAG 307
SHORT TERM...DRAG 307
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 307
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 307
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA 307








000
FXUS61 KPHI 311551
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1151 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY, EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH AN OFF SHORE LOW TOMORROW.
THAT STORM MOVES TO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SLIPS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1118 AM ESTF: LOWERED TEMPS SLIGHTLY TODAY (3 DEGREES FROM THE
PRIOR FCST DUE TO CLOUD COVER). NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE 930 AM
FCST ATTM. TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THESE TEMPS MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM.

BASICALLY CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL CHC OF
LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NJ COAST DURING LATE AFTERNOON.

12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AND MAY INCREASE POPS
FURTHER FOR NJ COAST...FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY.

FROST-FREEZE: THIS MORNINGS FROST MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ANTICIPATED
IN OUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON FCST (BASICALLY A MODEL BLEND OF GUIDANCE
WHICH WAS TOO WARM BY 2-5 DEGREES).

THERE WILL BE NO HEADLINES FOR FROST FREEZE UNTIL NEXT SPRINGS
GROWING SEASON BEGINS AS THIS FALLS GROWING SEASON HAS ESSENTIALLY
ENDED IN OUR FORECAST AREA.


TONIGHT...PROBABLY INCREASING POPS AND WIND GUSTS A BIT IN THE
1230 PM ESTF FOR TONIGHT IN NJ.

THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AND COMBINE
WITH YET ANOTHER LOW SOUTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT, WHILE THE INITIAL
COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD. AS THIS LOW
BEGINS DRIFTING NORTHWARD, SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES ALOFT AND
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND SWING ACROSS
OUR AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAINFALL DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST OVERNIGHT THAT SHOULD SWING ACROSS OUR AREA, GENERALLY AROUND
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN STORY ON THE MARINE AND MAYBE
COASTAL REGION.

CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW THINGS LIMITING
THE WIND. FIRST, THE TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GREATEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT ARE NOT JUXTAPOSED EITHER
TEMPORALLY OR GEOGRAPHICALLY.

IF THE 12Z GFS IS IDENTICAL TO ITS 06Z PREDECESSOR FOR COASTAL
FLOODING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WE WILL THEN ISSUE A CF ADVISORY AT
330 PM FOR THE SAT AFTN HIGH TIDE ALONG THE SNJ AND DE ATLC
COASTS.

OTRW...ITS LOOKING PERIODICALLY RAINY AND CHILLY AND AM LOWER MAX
TEMPS BY 3-4 DEGREES IN THE 1230 PM FCST FOR SATURDAY PER NEW
12Z/31 GFS CONFIRMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE BISECTING THE
REGION. ALSO A MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING. INSTEAD, THE
STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
WHEN THE TIGHTEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE OVER
THE REGION. ALSO, 6 HR PRESSURE RISES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE
FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 MB, WHILE NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE
AS THE 10MB PLUS PRESSURE RISES WELL OFF THE COAST THAT THE MODELS
SHOW, IT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A SMALL COMPONENT OF AN ISALLOBARIC
WIND. HAVING SAID ALL THAT HOWEVER, BASED ON LOCAL HIGH WIND
GUIDANCE WE STILL APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOWER END OF A WIND ADVISORY
THREAT EVEN ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE, WILL JUST KEEP MENTION IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES BY
SUNDAY SHOULD BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES. STILL EXPECTING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION TO
BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRECIP...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIP, WHICH WILL MAINLY BE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH SOME
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS PERIOD, ALL OF THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING, SO PRECIP TYPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN. FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, THE MELTING LAYER
THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 4000 FT AGL.
WITH SUCH A DEEP WARM LAYER, EVEN FLURRIES ARE VERY UNLIKELY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE REGION. STILL EXPECT A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE TO BOTH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES. HOWEVER, INTERESTINGLY, THE GFS IS NOW
SHOWING A MUCH MORE DRAMATIC WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IF THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WILL STALL WEST OF THE
REGION UNTIL LATE THURSDAY WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SE
TOWARD THE REGION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AOA 3500 FT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE.
CHANCE OF IFR CONDS IN NJ. N-NE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.

SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST INCLUDING KACY AND KMIV IN
PERIODS OF RAIN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST. BREEZY NORTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...NE WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO NEAR 23 KT IN THE
NNJ WATERS AROUND 6 PM EDT WHILE GUSTS REMAIN UNDER 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...SCA N-NE WIND CONDITIONS DEVELOP BUT THE HEADLINE IS
SUPERSEDED BY TOMORROWS GALE WARNING.

SATURDAY...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE WATERS WITH VARIOUS
STARTING TIMES. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MARGINAL GALE BEGINS
VICINITY 44065 (NNJ WATERS) NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND THEN SPREADS
SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS INCREASING 5 KT EVERYWHERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE SPOTTY GALE GUSTS DURING THE
MORNING EVEN IN DELAWARE BAY. A GALE WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR
UPPER DELAWARE BAY. THAT WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE CONVERTED TO A
GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 45
KT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 10FT POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. ON THE
UPPER DELAWARE BAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS EXPECTED PRIMARILY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST THE SNJ AND DELAWARE
WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SATURDAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE BUT VERY UNLIKELY TO ALSO OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ431-454-455.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1150
SHORT TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1150
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 1150
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 1150
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 311419
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1019 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY, EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH AN OFF SHORE LOW TOMORROW.
THAT STORM MOVES TO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SLIPS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM ESTF; MINOR ADJUSTMENTS REFLECTING THE SMATTERING OF VIRGA
MOVING WWD IN THE AREA JUST N OF KACY. LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR
(12Z) NAM (12Z)/GFS (06Z) ADVERTISE MINOR QPF LATE THIS AFTN NJ COAST
AND SO UPPED POPS TO 30 PCT THERE. ALSO INCREASED SKYCOVER SOONER
IN NJ. OTRW...LITTLE CHANGE.

TONIGHT...NO CHANGES YET BUT PROBABLY INCREASING POPS AND WINDS IN
THE 1230 PM ESTF FOR TONIGHT IN NJ.

THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AND COMBINE
WITH YET ANOTHER LOW SOUTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT, WHILE THE INITIAL
COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD. AS THIS LOW
BEGINS DRIFTING NORTHWARD, SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES ALOFT AND
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND SWING ACROSS
OUR AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAINFALL DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST OVERNIGHT THAT SHOULD SWING ACROSS OUR AREA, GENERALLY AROUND
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN STORY BOTH ON LAND AND MARINE.

CONTINUE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW THINGS LIMITING
THE WIND. FIRST, THE TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
GREATEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT ARE NOT JUXTAPOSED EITHER
TEMPORALLY OR GEOGRAPHICALLY.

IF THE 12Z GFS IS IDENTICAL TO ITS 06Z PREDECESSOR FOR COASTAL
FLOODING SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WE WILL THEN ISSUE A CF ADVISORY AT
330 PM FOR THE SAT AFTN HIGH TIDE ALONG THE SNJ AND DE ATLC
COASTS.

OTRW...ITS LOOKING PERIODICALLY RAINY AND CHILLY AND AM PROBABLY
GOING TO LOWER MAX TEMPS BY 3-4 DEGREES IN EITHER THE 1230 PM OR
330 PM FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE BISECTING THE
REGION. ALSO A MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING. INSTEAD, THE
STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING
WHEN THE TIGHTEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE OVER
THE REGION. ALSO, 6 HR PRESSURE RISES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE
FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 MB, WHILE NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE
AS THE 10MB PLUS PRESSURE RISES WELL OFF THE COAST THAT THE MODELS
SHOW, IT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A SMALL COMPONENT OF AN ISALLOBARIC
WIND. HAVING SAID ALL THAT HOWEVER, BASED ON LOCAL HIGH WIND
GUIDANCE WE STILL APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOWER END OF A WIND ADVISORY
THREAT EVEN ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE, WILL JUST KEEP MENTION IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES BY
SUNDAY SHOULD BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES. STILL EXPECTING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION TO
BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT.

PRECIP...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIP, WHICH WILL MAINLY BE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH SOME
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS PERIOD, ALL OF THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING, SO PRECIP TYPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN. FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, THE MELTING LAYER
THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 4000 FT AGL.
WITH SUCH A DEEP WARM LAYER, EVEN FLURRIES ARE VERY UNLIKELY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE REGION. STILL EXPECT A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE TO BOTH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES. HOWEVER, INTERESTINGLY, THE GFS IS NOW
SHOWING A MUCH MORE DRAMATIC WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IF THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WILL STALL WEST OF THE
REGION UNTIL LATE THURSDAY WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SE
TOWARD THE REGION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR CIGS DEVELOPING AOA 3500 FT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE.
CHANCE OF IFR CONDS IN NJ. N-NE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.

SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALIZED
IFR CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST INCLUDING KACY AND KMIV IN
PERIODS OF RAIN. GUSTY NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST. BREEZY NORTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...NE WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO NEAR 23 KT IN THE
NNJ WATERS AROUND 6 PM EDT WHILE GUSTS REMAIN UNDER 20 KT ELSEWHERE.

TONIGHT...SCA N-NE WIND CONDITIONS DEVELOP BUT THE HEADLINE IS
SUPERSEDED BY TOMORROWS GALE WARNING.

SATURDAY...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED MOST OF THE WATERS WITH VARIOUS
STARTING TIMES. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MARGINAL GALE BEGINS
VICINITY 44065 (NNJ WATERS) NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND THEN SPREADS
SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS INCREASING 5 KT EVERYWHERE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE MAY SEE SPOTTY GALE GUSTS DURING THE MORNING
EVEN IN DELAWARE BAY. A GALE WATCH HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED FOR UPPER
DELAWARE BAY. THAT WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE CONVERTED TO A GALE
WARNING THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 45
KT. SEAS AS HIGH AS 10FT POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. ON THE
UPPER DELAWARE BAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS EXPECTED PRIMARILY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST THE SNJ AND DELAWARE
WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE.

AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SATURDAY. IT
IS POSSIBLE BUT VERY UNLIKELY TO ALSO OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ431-454-455.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1019
SHORT TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1019
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 1019
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 1019
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1019








000
FXUS61 KPHI 311022
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
622 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY, EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH AN OFF SHORE LOW TOMORROW.
THAT STORM MOVES TO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SLIPS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN OVERALL QUIET DAY TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. OUR AREA WILL
BE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS, SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
THERE WILL BE SOME SUN TO START THE DAY FOR MANY AREAS AS IT IS
MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, BUT WE
EXPECT CLOUDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH MIDDAY, THEN AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEVEL OFF. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS AND BLENDED ECMWF 925MB TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AND COMBINE
WITH YET ANOTHER LOW SOUTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT, WHILE THE INITIAL
COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD. AS THIS LOW
BEGINS DRIFTING NORTHWARD, SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES ALOFT AND
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND SWING ACROSS
OUR AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAINFALL DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST OVERNIGHT THAT SHOULD SWING ACROSS OUR AREA, GENERALLY AROUND
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY SATURDAY THE SURFACE LOW (BY THIS POINT THE CONTENTION LOW AND
OFF SHORE LOW HAVE MERGED) BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST, AS THE CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TRUDGE EASTWARD. THE MAIN IMPACTS
WE`LL BE WATCHING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRECIP, TEMPS, COASTAL
FLOODING (SEE SECTION BELOW) AND WINDS:

WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN STORY BOTH ON LAND AND MARINE. THE
MARINE CONCERNS ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. AS FOR WIND ON LAND, CONTINUE
TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NEARER THE COAST. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW
THINGS LIMITING THE WIND. FIRST, THE TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND GREATEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT ARE NOT JUXTAPOSED
EITHER TEMPORALLY OR GEOGRAPHICALLY. THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE BISECTING THE REGION. ALSO A
MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING. INSTEAD, THE STRONGEST
WINDS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WHEN THE
TIGHTEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. ALSO, 6 HR PRESSURE RISES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST
TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 MB, WHILE NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE
10MB PLUS PRESSURE RISES WELL OFF THE COAST THAT THE MODELS SHOW,
IT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A SMALL COMPONENT OF AN ISALLOBARIC WIND.
HAVING SAID ALL THAT HOWEVER, BASED ON LOCAL HIGH WIND GUIDANCE WE
STILL APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOWER END OF A WIND ADVISORY THREAT EVEN
ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE, WILL JUST KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPS...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES BY
SUNDAY SHOULD BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES. STILL EXPECTING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION TO
BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED BY
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, THE FALL FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM ENDS NOV. 1 AS
WE ARE PAST THE MEAN FIRST FREEZE DATE.

PRECIP...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIP, WHICH WILL MAINLY BE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH SOME
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS PERIOD, ALL OF THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING, SO PRECIP TYPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN. FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, THE MELTING LAYER
THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 4000 FT AGL.
WITH SUCH A DEEP WARM LAYER, EVEN FLURRIES ARE VERY UNLIKELY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE REGION. STILL EXPECT A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE TO BOTH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES. HOWEVER, INTERESTINGLY, THE GFS IS NOW
SHOWING A MUCH MORE DRAMATIC WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IF THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WILL STALL WEST OF THE
REGION UNTIL LATE THURSDAY WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SE
TOWARD THE REGION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS, ONE TO
OUR WEST AND ONE TO OUR SOUTH. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD TO ALL TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME IFR, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. RAINFALL WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WIND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AROUND OR
AFTER AFTER DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST INCLUDING KACY
AND KMIV.  BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST. BREEZY NORTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO MOST OF
TONIGHT, BEFORE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS TOWARD DAYBREAK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS MAY BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY, BUT
SINCE WE`VE ISSUED A GALE WARNING IN THE SUBSEQUENT PERIODS, THE
ADVISORY HAS BEEN REMOVED.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 45 KT.
SEAS AS HIGH AS 10FT POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. ON THE UPPER
DELAWARE BAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS EXPECTED PRIMARILY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SATURDAY. IT
IS POSSIBLE BUT VERY UNLIKELY TO ALSO OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...









000
FXUS61 KPHI 310750
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY, EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH AN OFF SHORE LOW TOMORROW.
THAT STORM MOVES TO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SLIPS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN OVERALL QUIET DAY TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. OUR AREA WILL
BE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS, SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED.
THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN TO START THE DAY AS IT IS MOSTLY
CLEAR IN MOST AREAS THIS MORNING, BUT WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
THROUGH MIDDAY, THEN AS CLOUDS DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY
THE AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEVEL OFF. HIGHS WERE A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS AND BLENDED ECMWF 925MB TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AND COMBINE
WITH YET ANOTHER LOW SOUTH OF OUR AREA TONIGHT, WHILE THE INITIAL
COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD. AS THIS LOW
BEGINS DRIFTING NORTHWARD, SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES ALOFT AND
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND SWING ACROSS
OUR AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAINFALL DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST OVERNIGHT THAT SHOULD SWING ACROSS OUR AREA, GENERALLY AROUND
OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY SATURDAY THE SURFACE LOW (BY THIS POINT THE CONTENTION LOW AND
OFF SHORE LOW HAVE MERGED) BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST, AS THE CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TRUDGE EASTWARD. THE MAIN IMPACTS
WE`LL BE WATCHING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRECIP, TEMPS, COASTAL
FLOODING (SEE SECTION BELOW) AND WINDS:

WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN STORY BOTH ON LAND AND MARINE. THE
MARINE CONCERNS ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. AS FOR WIND ON LAND, CONTINUE
TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY NEARER THE COAST. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A FEW
THINGS LIMITING THE WIND. FIRST, THE TIGHTEST SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND GREATEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT ARE NOT JUXTAPOSED
EITHER TEMPORALLY OR GEOGRAPHICALLY. THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE BISECTING THE REGION. ALSO A
MID LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIMIT MIXING. INSTEAD, THE STRONGEST
WINDS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WHEN THE
TIGHTEST MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE OVER THE
REGION. ALSO, 6 HR PRESSURE RISES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST
TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 MB, WHILE NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS THE
10MB PLUS PRESSURE RISES WELL OFF THE COAST THAT THE MODELS SHOW,
IT COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A SMALL COMPONENT OF AN ISALLOBARIC WIND.
HAVING SAID ALL THAT HOWEVER, BASED ON LOCAL HIGH WIND GUIDANCE WE
STILL APPEAR TO BE ON THE LOWER END OF A WIND ADVISORY THREAT EVEN
ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE, WILL JUST KEEP MENTION IN THE HWO AT
THIS TIME.

TEMPS...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES BY
SUNDAY SHOULD BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES. STILL EXPECTING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION TO
BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED BY
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, THE FALL FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM ENDS NOV. 1 AS
WE ARE PAST THE MEAN FIRST FREEZE DATE.

PRECIP...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIP, WHICH WILL MAINLY BE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH SOME
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS PERIOD, ALL OF THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING, SO PRECIP TYPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN. FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, THE MELTING LAYER
THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 4000 FT AGL.
WITH SUCH A DEEP WARM LAYER, EVEN FLURRIES ARE VERY UNLIKELY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE REGION. STILL EXPECT A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE TO BOTH AIR MASS MODIFICATION AND
INCREASING THICKNESSES. HOWEVER, INTERESTINGLY, THE GFS IS NOW
SHOWING A MUCH MORE DRAMATIC WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RUNS, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S POSSIBLE
BY TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IF THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WILL STALL WEST OF THE
REGION UNTIL LATE THURSDAY WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SE
TOWARD THE REGION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES
HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS, ONE TO
OUR WEST AND ONE TO OUR SOUTH. CLOUD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND LOWER
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL MAY ALSO
BEGIN TO SPREAD FROM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.

MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WIND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER
DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST INCLUDING KACY
AND KMIV.  BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST. BREEZY NORTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO MOST OF
TONIGHT, BEFORE AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS TOWARD DAYBREAK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS MAY BEGIN AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY, BUT
SINCE WE`VE ISSUED A GALE WARNING IN THE SUBSEQUENT PERIODS, THE
ADVISORY HAS BEEN REMOVED.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 45 KT.
SEAS AS HIGH AS 10FT POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. ON THE UPPER
DELAWARE BAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GUSTS EXPECTED PRIMARILY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

MONDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SATURDAY. IT
IS POSSIBLE BUT VERY UNLIKELY TO ALSO OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT SATURDAY TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 310134
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
934 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL JOIN
FORCES WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS TO FORM A STRONG
STORM SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATE SATURDAY. THAT STORM MOVES TO THE
MARITIMES SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE CAROLINAS
EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SLIPS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT.

THE DAYTIME STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WE
ARE ANTICIPATING FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS DURING THE NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT WIND, MAINLY 5 MPH OR LESS FAVORING THE NORTH.

TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL INTO THE RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE LOW LEVEL AIR IN
OUR REGION IS DRIER THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT, SO NO FOG IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER LATE
IN THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY WITH THE SECOND DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE. CLOUDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE
OCEAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT ALONG THE COAST. MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50`S ON FRIDAY FOR PHL. HOWEVER
WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN IT WILL BE HARD TO REACH THESE AND KEPT
HIGHS IN THE MID 50`S WITH SOME UPPER 40`S NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB: A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS
WEEKEND MOVES TO THE MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A WARMING
RIDGE FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES LATER NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: BY THE TIME THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
WE`VE CLOSED OUT THE MONTH OF OCTOBER THAT AVERAGED MORE THAN 2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NOVEMBER STARTS OUT NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...
5 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL SUNDAY WITH WIND... STILL NEARLY 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY BUT WITH LESS WIND AND THEN NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY....MAYBE AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL EITHER DAY.

HAZARDS: GALE SATURDAY POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY. POSSIBLE
MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT THIS IS NOT LIKELY. A SMALL
CHANCE OF SPOTTY WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
THIS FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/30
NAM/GFS MOS FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
THAT VALUE BLENDED 50 PCT WITH THE 00Z/30 ECMWF 2M TEMPS. 12Z/30
GFS MOS COMPRISES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN THEREAFTER
(MONDAY ONWARD) THE 1523Z/30 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES
IS BLENDED 50 50 WITH THE 12Z/30 MEXMOS. ALL THIS WAS EVENTUALLY
CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/30 ECMWF THROUGH TUESDAY ONLY, WHEN WE
MODIFIED THE NCEP-WPC GUIDANCE HIGHER BY SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY!

THE REMAINDER..WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND..OF THE 12Z/30 OPERATIONAL
ECMWF DID NOT ARRIVE IN A TIMELY FASHION AND WAS NOT USED FOR THIS
FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/30
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
12Z/30 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

FRIDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING WESTWARD THROUGH
NJ...POSSIBLY DURING THE EVENING TRICK OR TREAT TIME. CONFIDENCE
ON FORECAST DETAILS IS AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...COOLER THAN NORMAL AND BRISK WITH NORTHERLY GUSTS
20-30 MPH. RAIN PROBABLE AT TIMES SE PA THROUGH SOUTHERN-CENTRAL
NJ AND PROBABLY SOUTH ONTO THE DELMARVA. 15Z SREF IS DRIER THAN
I`D LIKE TO SEE FOR SATURDAY. SO THE COMBINATION OF THE LATE
ARRIVING ECMWF AND SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS LOWERS MY CONFIDENCE ON
SATURDAYS FORECAST TO ONLY AVERAGE.

SUNDAY...WINDY AND MAYBE 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTS 30-40 MPH. ISOLATED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
POSSIBLE. THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND SO MY
CONFIDENCE ON MAX WIND GUST IS BELOW AVERAGE. DIURNAL SC WITH
PLENTIFUL MORNING SUNSHINE HIDING BEHIND INCREASING MIDDAY SC.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF BUT AS YET UNMENTIONED...FOR AN
AFTERNOON SPRINKLE WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH ALOFT PASSAGE. IF THE
SPRINKLES MATERIALIZE...IT WOULD BE A SNOW SHOWER IN THE POCONOS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FROST FREEZE PORTION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA
ENDS NOVEMBER 1 SO DESPITE THE FORECAST OF FROST OR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...A HEADLINE
WILL NOT BE ISSUED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER
ARRIVING AROUND DAWN.

MONDAY...DIMINISHED WIND AND MILDER. MID LVL CLOUD COVER. WEST
WIND GUST 15 MPH. THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS RAISED BY 4 DEGREES DUE TO
THE MUCH MILDER 12Z/30 ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER. THIS SHOULD BE
A NICE DAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY STILL NICE. MAYBE A SHOWER DEVELOPS LATE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

THURSDAY...MAYBE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OTHERWISE...THE NEXT TROUGH
AND A COOL FRONT MAY BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN USA. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. AN INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS IS EXPECTED DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 4000 TO 5000
FEET AT THAT TIME.

A LIGHT WIND AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS SHOULD FAVOR THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.
A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS IS EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR CIGS LATE. -SHRA SHOULD
BE DEVELOPING OVER NJ POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MVFR VSBY AS WELL.

SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS ACROSS SE
PA...THE DELMARVA...S AND CENTRAL NJ. NORTHERLY WINDS GUST 20-30
KT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTY NNW WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AT
KACY.

SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. NW WIND GUSTS 23-33KT DIMINISHING
AT NIGHT. CIGS NEAR 3500 FT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON MAY YIELD AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE (EXCEPT FLURRY POCONOS?).

MONDAY...VFR WITH BKN CIGS AOA 10000 FT. W-NW WIND GUSTING 15 KT.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
BY FRIDAY EVENING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST.

OUTLOOK...
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. TIMING OF THE ONSET OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND IF THIS GALE IS DELAYED TIL SATURDAY
EVENING...I WANTED AN SCA TO PRECEDE.

THE 12Z/30 GFS WW3 MODELED SEAS WERE INCREASED BY 2-3 FT SATURDAY
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BUILD INTO SCA CRITERIA,
AND THEN GALES, WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. GALE CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH SCA SEAS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY
MONDAY?

TUESDAY...NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WE THINK IT UNLIKELY BUT WE STILL ARE
MONITORING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG








000
FXUS61 KPHI 302128
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
528 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL JOIN FORCES
WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS TO FORM A STRONG STORM SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD LATE SATURDAY. THAT STORM MOVES TO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK
THEN SLIPS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEXT WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DUE TO DAYTIME AND STEEP LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON A BROAD AREA
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A CLEAR
AND COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
AND BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT. A TIGHT SPREAD WITH TEMPERATURES
AMONG MEX/MET AND THE ECMWF/GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS RUN FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. DID GO SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THESE SETS IN THE PINE BARRENS
WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN 30`S TO RIGHT AROUND 40, WARMEST AT PHL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER LATE IN
THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY WITH THE SECOND DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE. CLOUDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE
OCEAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT ALONG THE COAST. MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50`S ON FRIDAY FOR PHL. HOWEVER
WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN IT WILL BE HARD TO REACH THESE AND KEPT
HIGHS IN THE MID 50`S WITH SOME UPPER 40`S NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB: A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS
WEEKEND MOVES TO THE MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A WARMING RIDGE
FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES LATER NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: BY THE TIME THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
WE`VE CLOSED OUT THE MONTH OF OCTOBER THAT AVERAGED MORE THAN 2
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NOVEMBER STARTS OUT NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...
5 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL SUNDAY WITH WIND... STILL NEARLY 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY BUT WITH LESS WIND AND THEN NEAR
NORMAL TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY....MAYBE AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL EITHER DAY.

HAZARDS: GALE SATURDAY POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY. POSSIBLE
MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT THIS IS NOT LIKELY. A SMALL CHANCE OF
SPOTTY WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/30 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN THAT VALUE
BLENDED 50 PCT WITH THE 00Z/30 ECMWF 2M TEMPS. 12Z/30 GFS MOS COMPRISES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN THEREAFTER (MONDAY ONWARD) THE
1523Z/30 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50 WITH
THE 12Z/30 MEXMOS. ALL THIS WAS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/30 ECMWF THROUGH TUESDAY ONLY, WHEN WE MODIFIED THE NCEP-WPC
GUIDANCE HIGHER BY SEVERAL DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY!

THE REMAINDER..WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND..OF THE 12Z/30 OPERATIONAL ECMWF
DID NOT ARRIVE IN A TIMELY FASHION AND WAS NOT USED FOR THIS FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/30
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/30
GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

FRIDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING WESTWARD THROUGH NJ...POSSIBLY
DURING THE EVENING TRICK OR TREAT TIME. CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST DETAILS
IS AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...COOLER THAN NORMAL AND BRISK WITH NORTHERLY GUSTS 20-30 MPH.
RAIN PROBABLE AT TIMES SE PA THROUGH SOUTHERN-CENTRAL NJ AND PROBABLY
SOUTH ONTO THE DELMARVA. 15Z SREF IS DRIER THAN I`D LIKE TO SEE FOR
SATURDAY. SO THE COMBINATION OF THE LATE ARRIVING ECMWF AND SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS LOWERS MY CONFIDENCE ON SATURDAYS FORECAST TO ONLY AVERAGE.

SUNDAY...WINDY AND MAYBE 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTS 30-40 MPH. ISOLATED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA POSSIBLE.
THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND SO MY CONFIDENCE ON
MAX WIND GUST IS BELOW AVERAGE. DIURNAL SC WITH PLENTIFUL MORNING
SUNSHINE HIDING BEHIND INCREASING MIDDAY SC. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF BUT AS YET UNMENTIONED...FOR AN AFTERNOON SPRINKLE WITH
A SECONDARY TROUGH ALOFT PASSAGE. IF THE SPRINKLES
MATERIALIZE...IT WOULD BE A SNOW SHOWER IN THE POCONOS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FROST FREEZE PORTION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA ENDS
NOVEMBER 1 SO DESPITE THE FORECAST OF FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...A HEADLINE WILL NOT BE
ISSUED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ARRIVING AROUND
DAWN.

MONDAY...DIMINISHED WIND AND MILDER. MID LVL CLOUD COVER. WEST
WIND GUST 15 MPH. THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS RAISED BY 4 DEGREES DUE TO
THE MUCH MILDER 12Z/30 ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER.  THIS SHOULD BE
A NICE DAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY STILL NICE. MAYBE A SHOWER DEVELOPS LATE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

THURSDAY...MAYBE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OTHERWISE...THE NEXT TROUGH
AND A COOL FRONT MAY BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN USA. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CLOUD COVER IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH BASES
FROM 3,500-5,000 FEET, VARYING FROM BROKEN TO SCATTERED FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. WITH A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN, NO FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER VFR DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND 4,000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER 18Z SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AT ACY. EXPECT ANY MVFR CEILINGS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT RAIN MAKER.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR CIGS LATE. -SHRA SHOULD
BE DEVELOPING OVER NJ POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MVFR VSBY AS WELL.

SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS ACROSS SE
PA...THE DELMARVA...S AND CENTRAL NJ. NORTHERLY WINDS GUST 20-30
KT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTY NNW WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AT
KACY.

SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. NW WIND GUSTS 23-33KT DIMINISHING
AT NIGHT. CIGS NEAR 3500 FT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON MAY YIELD AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE (EXCEPT FLURRY POCONOS?).

MONDAY...VFR WITH BKN CIGS AOA 10000 FT. W-NW WIND GUSTING 15 KT.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
BY FRIDAY EVENING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST.

OUTLOOK...
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. TIMING OF THE ONSET OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND IF THIS GALE IS DELAYED TIL SATURDAY
EVENING...I WANTED AN SCA TO PRECEDE.

THE 12Z/30 GFS WW3 MODELED SEAS WERE INCREASED BY 2-3 FT SATURDAY
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BUILD INTO SCA CRITERIA,
AND THEN GALES, WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. GALE CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH SCA SEAS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY MONDAY?

TUESDAY...NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WE THINK IT UNLIKELY BUT WE STILL ARE MONITORING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...DRAG 527 CORRECTED TYPOS
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 302017
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
417 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL JOIN FORCES
WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS TO FORM A STRONG STORM SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE COD LATE SATURDAY. THAT STORM MOVES TO THE MARITIMES SUNDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY NEXT WEEK
THEN SLIPS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEXT WEDNESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
DUE TO DAYTIME AND STEEP LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON A BROAD AREA
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A CLEAR
AND COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
AND BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT. A TIGHT SPREAD WITH TEMPERATURES
AMONG MEX/MET AND THE ECMWF/GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS RUN FOR LOWS
TONIGHT. DID GO SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THESE SETS IN THE PINE BARRENS
WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN 30`S TO RIGHT AROUND 40, WARMEST AT PHL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER LATE IN
THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST ONE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY FRIDAY WITH THE SECOND DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE. CLOUDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO ADVECT IN FROM THE
OCEAN DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT ALONG THE COAST. MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50`S ON FRIDAY FOR PHL. HOWEVER
WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN IT WILL BE HARD TO REACH THESE AND KEPT
HIGHS IN THE MID 50`S WITH SOME UPPER 40`S NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
500 MB: A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS
WEEKEND MOVES TO THE MARITIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A WARMING RIDGE
FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER TROUGH EVOLVES IN THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES LATER NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: BY THE TIME OF WE`VE CLOSED OUT A MONTH OF OCTOBER
THAT AVERAGED MORE THAN 2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NOVEMBER STARTS OUT
NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...5 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL SUNDAY WITH WIND...
STILL NEARLY 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MONDAY BUT WITH LESS WIND AND
THEN NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE WEDNESDAY AND
NEXT THURSDAY....MAYBE AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EITHER
DAY.

HAZARDS: GALE SATURDAY POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY. POSSIBLE
MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BUT THIS IS NOT LIKELY. A SMALL CHANCE OF
SPOTTY WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/30 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN THAT VALUE
BLENDED 50 PCT WITH THE 00Z/30 ECMWF 2M TEMPS. 12Z/30 GFS MOS COMPRISES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN THEREAFTER (MONDAY ONWARD) THE
1523Z/30 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50 WITH
THE 12Z/30 MEXMOS. ALL THIS WAS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/30 ECMWF THROUGH TUESDAY ONLY WHERE WE MODIFIED THE NCEP
GUIDANCE HIGHER BY SEVERAL DEGREES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY!

THE REMAINDER..WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND..OF THE 12Z/30 OPERATIONAL ECMWF
DID NOT ARRIVE IN A TIMELY FASHION AND WAS NOT USED FOR THIS FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/30
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/30
GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

FRIDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING WESTWARD THROUGH NJ...POSSIBLY
DURING THE EVENING TRICK OR TREAT TIME. CONFIDENCE ON FORECAST DETAILS
IS AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...COOLER THAN NORMAL AND BRISK WITH NORTHERLY GUSTS 20-30 MPH.
RAIN PROBABLE AT TIMES SE PA THROUGH SOUTHERN-CENTRAL NJ AND PROBABLY
SOUTH ONTO THE DELMARVA. 15Z SREF IS DRIER THAN I`D LIKE TO SEE FOR
SATURDAY. SO THE COMBINATION OF THE LATE ARRIVING ECMWF AND SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS LOWERS MY CONFIDENCE ON SATURDAYS FORECAST TO ONLY AVERAGE.

SUNDAY...WINDY AND MAYBE 5 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTS 30-40 MPH. ISOLATED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA POSSIBLE.
THE GFS IS MORE ROBUST THAN THE 12Z ECMWF AND SO MY CONFIDENCE ON
MAX WIND GUST IS BELOW AVERAGE. DIURNAL SC FOR SUNSHINE HIDING
BEHIND INCREASING MIDDAY SC. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF BUT AS YET
UNMENTIONED...FOR AN AFTERNOON SPRINKLE WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH
ALOFT PASSAGE. IF THE SPRINKLES MATERIALIZE...IT WOULD BE A SNOW
SHOWER IN THE POCONOS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FROST FREEZE PORTION FOR OUR FORECAST AREA ENDS
NOVEMBER 1 SO DESPITE THE FORECAST OF FROST OR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...A HEADLINE WILL NOT BE
ISSUED. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ARRIVING AROUND
DAWN.

MONDAY...DIMINISHED WIND AND MILDER. MID LVL CLOUD COVER. WEST
WIND GUST 15 MPH. THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS RAISED BY 4 DEGREES DUE TO
THE MUCH MILDER 12Z/30 ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER.  THIS SHOULD BE
A NICE DAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY...PROBABLY STILL NICE. MAYBE A SHOWER DEVELOPS LATE.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

THURSDAY...MAYBE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS OTHERWISE...THE NEXT TROUGH...A
COOL FRONT MAY BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN USA. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CLOUD COVER IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH BASES
FROM 3,500-5,000 FEET, VARYING FROM BROKEN TO SCATTERED FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET. WITH A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN, NO FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER VFR DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND 4,000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER 18Z SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AT ACY. EXPECT ANY MVFR CEILINGS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT RAIN MAKER.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR CIGS LATE. -SHRA SHOULD
BE DEVELOPING OVER NJ POSSIBLY RESULTING IN MVFR VSBY AS WELL.

SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS ACROSS SE
PA...THE DELMARVA...S AND CENTRAL NJ. NORTHERLY WINDS GUST 20-30
KT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTY NNW WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AT
KACY.

SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. NW WIND GUSTS 23-33KT DIMINISHING
AT NIGHT. CIGS NEAR 3500 FT IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON MAY YIELD AN
ISOLATED SPRINKLE (EXCEPT FLURRY POCONOS?).

MONDAY...VFR WITH BKN CIGS AOA 10000 FT. W-NW WIND GUSTING 15 KT.

TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AND WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOME WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
BY FRIDAY EVENING OFF THE DELAWARE COAST.

OUTLOOK...
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. TIMING OF THE ONSET OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND IF THIS GALE IS DELAYED TIL SATURDAY
EVENING...I WANTED AN SCA TO PRECEDE.

THE 12Z/30 GFS WW3 MODELED SEAS WERE INCREASED BY 2-3 FT SATURDAY
THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BUILD INTO SCA CRITERIA,
AND THEN GALES, WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. GALE CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THIS PERIOD THOUGH SCA SEAS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY MONDAY?

TUESDAY...NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME WE THINK IT UNLIKELY BUT WE STILL ARE MONITORING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG  417
NEAR TERM...GAINES 417
SHORT TERM...GAINES 417
LONG TERM...DRAG 417
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 417
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES 417
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...417








000
FXUS61 KPHI 301728
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
128 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION TODAY. BY TOMORROW, A LOW
WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN OFF SHORE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
TWO LOWS WILL MERGE OFF SHORE RESULTING IN COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS BURNED OUT THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE WE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES DUE TO
MORNING FOR OR THE LACK THEREOF. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK. STILL THINK 60 IS A REASONABLE EXPECTATION AT PHL GIVEN
QUICK RESPONSE IN TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING.

TODAY SHOULD END UP BEING A PRETTY NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO OUR WEST AND TRIES TO PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS. A
SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING,
ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANY PRECIP TO
THE NORTHWEST SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT GETS HERE. SOME STRATOCU
WILL MOVE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE RAISED
SKY COVER NW OF PHL FOR THIS. A PATCHY AREA OF CLOUDS WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND BLENDED ECMWF 925MB
TEMPS WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. ANY CLOUDS FROM THE
DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NIGHT, BEFORE A RETURN OF SOME CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS WHICH KEEPS
EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE LOW THAT DIGS
SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY, SLIDING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY AND MERGING WITH AN OFF SHORE LOW.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WE WILL TECHNICALLY STILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, IT WON`T FEEL MUCH LIKE IT. THANKS
TO THE OFF SHORE SURFACE LOW, ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
RATHER EARLY IN THE DAY FRIDAY LEADING TO COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER.
EXPECT MOST LOCATION TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS IT LIKELY WON`T GET OUT OF
THE 40S. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINENTAL LOW COULD BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE POCONOS FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN LIGHT
PRECIP ALONG THE COAST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE ONSHORE, AND
UPSLOPE FLOW TO RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIP FURTHER INLAND.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NOW OCCLUDED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS. ONE
INTERESTING THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. IF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT AS QUICKLY AS THE GFS IS
SUGGESTING, SNOW SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY AS BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING,
ONLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF AND NAM STILL SHOW SOME CHANCE OF SEEDER FEEDER CLOUDS
THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY. EVEN IF PRECIP DOES CHANGE
OVER, PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE, THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING, INCLUDING THE 15 REMAINING COUNTIES (PRIMARILY IN
DELMARVA, THE URBAN CORRIDOR, AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ) THAT HAVE NOT
YET HAD A HARD FREEZE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST. EXPECT MODEST WARMING EACH DAY THANKS BOTH TO AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AD INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COULD SEE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DISAGREE ABOUT TIMING AND TRACK
OF THIS FEATURE. THUS, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CLOUD COVER IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
BASES AROUND 3,500-5,000 FEET, AND SHOULD VARY FROM BROKEN TO
SCATTERED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET. WITH A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN, NO FOG IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER VFR DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND 4,000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY MVFR CEILINGS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT RAIN MAKER.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: -SHRA COULD MOVE IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES.

SATURDAY...IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY NW WINDS MAY CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AT ACY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IT`S WAY ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BUILD INTO SCA CRITERIA,
AND THEN GALES, WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. GALE CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WINDS WILL STAY IN SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 301728
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
128 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION TODAY. BY TOMORROW, A LOW
WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN OFF SHORE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
TWO LOWS WILL MERGE OFF SHORE RESULTING IN COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS BURNED OUT THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE WE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES DUE TO
MORNING FOR OR THE LACK THEREOF. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK. STILL THINK 60 IS A REASONABLE EXPECTATION AT PHL GIVEN
QUICK RESPONSE IN TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING.

TODAY SHOULD END UP BEING A PRETTY NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO OUR WEST AND TRIES TO PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS. A
SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING,
ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANY PRECIP TO
THE NORTHWEST SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT GETS HERE. SOME STRATOCU
WILL MOVE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE RAISED
SKY COVER NW OF PHL FOR THIS. A PATCHY AREA OF CLOUDS WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND BLENDED ECMWF 925MB
TEMPS WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. ANY CLOUDS FROM THE
DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NIGHT, BEFORE A RETURN OF SOME CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS WHICH KEEPS
EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE LOW THAT DIGS
SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY, SLIDING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY AND MERGING WITH AN OFF SHORE LOW.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WE WILL TECHNICALLY STILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, IT WON`T FEEL MUCH LIKE IT. THANKS
TO THE OFF SHORE SURFACE LOW, ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
RATHER EARLY IN THE DAY FRIDAY LEADING TO COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER.
EXPECT MOST LOCATION TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS IT LIKELY WON`T GET OUT OF
THE 40S. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINENTAL LOW COULD BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE POCONOS FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN LIGHT
PRECIP ALONG THE COAST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE ONSHORE, AND
UPSLOPE FLOW TO RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIP FURTHER INLAND.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NOW OCCLUDED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS. ONE
INTERESTING THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. IF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT AS QUICKLY AS THE GFS IS
SUGGESTING, SNOW SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY AS BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING,
ONLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF AND NAM STILL SHOW SOME CHANCE OF SEEDER FEEDER CLOUDS
THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY. EVEN IF PRECIP DOES CHANGE
OVER, PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE, THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING, INCLUDING THE 15 REMAINING COUNTIES (PRIMARILY IN
DELMARVA, THE URBAN CORRIDOR, AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ) THAT HAVE NOT
YET HAD A HARD FREEZE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST. EXPECT MODEST WARMING EACH DAY THANKS BOTH TO AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AD INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COULD SEE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DISAGREE ABOUT TIMING AND TRACK
OF THIS FEATURE. THUS, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CLOUD COVER IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
BASES AROUND 3,500-5,000 FEET, AND SHOULD VARY FROM BROKEN TO
SCATTERED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET. WITH A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN, NO FOG IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

ANOTHER VFR DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND 4,000 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANY MVFR CEILINGS
TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT RAIN MAKER.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: -SHRA COULD MOVE IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES.

SATURDAY...IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY NW WINDS MAY CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AT ACY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IT`S WAY ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BUILD INTO SCA CRITERIA,
AND THEN GALES, WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. GALE CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WINDS WILL STAY IN SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 301613
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1213 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION TODAY. BY TOMORROW, A LOW
WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN OFF SHORE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
TWO LOWS WILL MERGE OFF SHORE RESULTING IN COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS BURNED OUT THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE WE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES DUE TO
MORNING FOR OR THE LACK THEREOF. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK. STILL THINK 60 IS A REASONABLE EXPECTATION AT PHL GIVEN
QUICK RESPONSE IN TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING.

TODAY SHOULD END UP BEING A PRETTY NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO OUR WEST AND TRIES TO PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS. A
SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING,
ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANY PRECIP TO
THE NORTHWEST SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT GETS HERE. SOME STRATOCU
WILL MOVE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE RAISED
SKY COVER NW OF PHL FOR THIS. A PATCHY AREA OF CLOUDS WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL.

HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND BLENDED ECMWF 925MB
TEMPS WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. ANY CLOUDS FROM THE
DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NIGHT, BEFORE A RETURN OF SOME CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS WHICH KEEPS
EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE LOW THAT DIGS
SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY, SLIDING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY AND MERGING WITH AN OFF SHORE LOW.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WE WILL TECHNICALLY STILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, IT WON`T FEEL MUCH LIKE IT. THANKS
TO THE OFF SHORE SURFACE LOW, ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
RATHER EARLY IN THE DAY FRIDAY LEADING TO COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER.
EXPECT MOST LOCATION TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS IT LIKELY WON`T GET OUT OF
THE 40S. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINENTAL LOW COULD BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE POCONOS FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN LIGHT
PRECIP ALONG THE COAST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE ONSHORE, AND
UPSLOPE FLOW TO RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIP FURTHER INLAND.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NOW OCCLUDED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS. ONE
INTERESTING THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. IF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT AS QUICKLY AS THE GFS IS
SUGGESTING, SNOW SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY AS BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING,
ONLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF AND NAM STILL SHOW SOME CHANCE OF SEEDER FEEDER CLOUDS
THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY. EVEN IF PRECIP DOES CHANGE
OVER, PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE, THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING, INCLUDING THE 15 REMAINING COUNTIES (PRIMARILY IN
DELMARVA, THE URBAN CORRIDOR, AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ) THAT HAVE NOT
YET HAD A HARD FREEZE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST. EXPECT MODEST WARMING EACH DAY THANKS BOTH TO AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AD INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COULD SEE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DISAGREE ABOUT TIMING AND TRACK
OF THIS FEATURE. THUS, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CLOUD COVER IS MOVING INTO ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
BASES AROUND 3,500-5,000 FEET, AND SHOULD VARY FROM BROKEN TO
SCATTERED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO
PREVENT FOG FORMATION.

NORTH TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT, WITH ANY
DIRECTION BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...EXPECT CEILING TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING MVFR AT
LEAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. -SHRA COULD MOVE IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL

SATURDAY...IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY NW WINDS MAY CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AT ACY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IT`S WAY ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BUILD INTO SCA CRITERIA,
AND THEN GALES, WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. GALE CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WINDS WILL STAY IN SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 301345
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
945 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION TODAY. BY TOMORROW, A LOW
WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN OFF SHORE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
TWO LOWS WILL MERGE OFF SHORE RESULTING IN COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS BURNED OUT THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE WE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES DUE TO
MORNING FOR OR THE LACK THEREOF. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK. STILL THINK 60 IS A REASONABLE EXPECTATION AT PHL GIVEN
QUICK RESPONSE IN TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING.

TODAY SHOULD END UP BEING A PRETTY NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO OUR WEST AND TRIES TO PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS. A
SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING,
ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANY PRECIP TO
THE NORTHWEST SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT GETS HERE. BEHIND THIS,
THERE COULD BE SOME STRATOCU MOVE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND BLENDED ECMWF 925MB
TEMPS WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. ANY CLOUDS FROM THE
DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NIGHT, BEFORE A RETURN OF SOME CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS WHICH KEEPS
EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE LOW THAT DIGS
SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY, SLIDING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY AND MERGING WITH AN OFF SHORE LOW.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WE WILL TECHNICALLY STILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, IT WON`T FEEL MUCH LIKE IT. THANKS
TO THE OFF SHORE SURFACE LOW, ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
RATHER EARLY IN THE DAY FRIDAY LEADING TO COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER.
EXPECT MOST LOCATION TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS IT LIKELY WON`T GET OUT OF
THE 40S. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINENTAL LOW COULD BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE POCONOS FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN LIGHT
PRECIP ALONG THE COAST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE ONSHORE, AND
UPSLOPE FLOW TO RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIP FURTHER INLAND.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NOW OCCLUDED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS. ONE
INTERESTING THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. IF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT AS QUICKLY AS THE GFS IS
SUGGESTING, SNOW SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY AS BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING,
ONLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF AND NAM STILL SHOW SOME CHANCE OF SEEDER FEEDER CLOUDS
THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY. EVEN IF PRECIP DOES CHANGE
OVER, PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE, THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING, INCLUDING THE 15 REMAINING COUNTIES (PRIMARILY IN
DELMARVA, THE URBAN CORRIDOR, AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ) THAT HAVE NOT
YET HAD A HARD FREEZE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST. EXPECT MODEST WARMING EACH DAY THANKS BOTH TO AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AD INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COULD SEE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE DISAGREE ABOUT TIMING AND TRACK
OF THIS FEATURE. THUS, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH BASES AROUND 4,000-5,000 FEET, AND
SHOULD VARY FROM BROKEN TO SCATTERED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER AREA OF BROKEN VFR CEILINGS WILL IMPACT ACY AND MIV UNTIL
ABOUT NOON THIS MORNING. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG
FORMATION.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10
KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS MAY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT, WITH ANY DIRECTION
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...EXPECT CEILING TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING MVFR AT
LEAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. -SHRA COULD MOVE IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL

SATURDAY...IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY NW WINDS MAY CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AT ACY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IT`S WAY ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BUILD INTO SCA CRITERIA,
AND THEN GALES, WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. GALE CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WINDS WILL STAY IN SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 300809
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
409 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION TODAY. BY TOMORROW, A LOW
WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN OFF SHORE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
TWO LOWS WILL MERGE OFF SHORE RESULTING IN COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE MOIST LOW LEVELS LEFT OVER
FROM THE LIGHT RAIN YESTERDAY, AND THERE IS SOME DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE. HOWEVER, LOOKING AT TRAFFIC
CAMERAS AND THE SATELLITE FOG TOOL, IT LOOKS LIKE THE DENSE FOG IS
PATCHY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW.
ALSO, DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, WHICH SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE THE FOG SOME. SO WE`LL KEEP
WITH THE SPS.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE, TODAY SHOULD END UP BEING A
PRETTY NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR WEST AND TRIES TO
PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS. A SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS
OUR AREA AS ANY PRECIP TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT
GETS HERE. BEHIND THIS, THERE COULD BE SOME STRATOCU MOVE DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND BLENDED ECMWF 925MB
TEMPS WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. ANY CLOUDS FROM THE
DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NIGHT, BEFORE A RETURN OF SOME CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS WHICH KEEPS
EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE LOW THAT DIGS
SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY, SLIDING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY AND MERGING WITH AN OFF SHORE LOW.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WE WILL TECHNICALLY STILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, IT WON`T FEEL MUCH LIKE IT. THANKS
TO THE OFF SHORE SURFACE LOW, ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
RATHER EARLY IN THE DAY FRIDAY LEADING TO COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER.
EXPECT MOST LOCATION TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS IT LIKELY WON`T GET OUT OF
THE 40S. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINENTAL LOW COULD BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE POCONOS FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN LIGHT
PRECIP ALONG THE COAST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE ONSHORE, AND
UPSLOPE FLOW TO RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIP FURTHER INLAND.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NOW OCCLUDED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS. ONE
INTERESTING THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. IF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT AS QUICKLY AS THE GFS IS
SUGGESTING, SNOW SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY AS BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING,
ONLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF AND NAM STILL SHOW SOME CHANCE OF SEEDER FEEDER CLOUDS
THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY. EVEN IF PRECIP DOES CHANGE
OVER, PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE, THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING, INCLUDING THE 15 REMAINING COUNTIES (PRIMARILY IN
DELMARVA, THE URBAN CORRIDOR, AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ) THAT HAVE NOT
YET HAD A HARD FREEZE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST. EXPECT MODEST WARMING EACH DAY THANKS BOTH TO AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AD INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COULD SEE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE DISAGREE ABOUT TIMING AND TRACK
OF THIS FEATURE. THUS, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ALL AIRPORTS THIS MORNING DUE TO THE MOIST LOW
LEVELS LEFT OVER FROM THE LIGHT RAIN FROM YESTERDAY. LIFR VSBYS ARE
OCCURRING AT MOST OF THE SITES AS WELL. DRIER AIR IS STILL EXPECTED
TO FILTER ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE THE FOG SOME,
ALTHOUGH WE STILL EXPECT IFR VSBYS THROUGH SUNRISE. THE FOG SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE AND LIFT/DISSIPATE COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. THEN A VFR FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER MOVE
IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH BASES
AROUND 4,000-5,000 FEET, AND SHOULD VARY FROM BROKEN TO SCATTERED
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG
FORMATION.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10
KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS MAY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT, WITH ANY DIRECTION
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...EXPECT CEILING TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING MVFR AT
LEAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. -SHRA COULD MOVE IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL

SATURDAY...IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY NW WINDS MAY CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AT ACY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IT`S WAY ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BUILD INTO SCA CRITERIA,
AND THEN GALES, WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. GALE CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WINDS WILL STAY IN SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 300120
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
920 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA
THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL COMBINE
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY WHILE
STRENGTHENING, THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT TIED TO LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND IS WELL EAST OF
OUR COAST. A WEAK SURFACE LOW THOUGH DEVELOPED ALONG IT IN EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA, HOWEVER THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY ARE EXPECTED TO END DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR IS ALLOWING THE CLOUDS TO THIN FROM WEST
TO EAST, AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE DRYING NEAR THE
SURFACE THOUGH WAS HALTED FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY WHERE THE WINDS WENT
CALM. THIS RESULTED IN SOME LOCALIZED FOG ACROSS MAINLY OUR WESTERN
ZONES WHERE THE CLOUD COVER THINNED OUT QUICKER. A PUSH OF DRIER
LOW-LEVEL AIR THOUGH IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS
A RESULT, ANY FOG SHOULD TEND TO BE LOCALIZED AND PERHAPS EVEN
DISSIPATE. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MAY ALLOW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO OUR WEST TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND
THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT FIELDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
LOW TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A NICE FALL DAY WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND DIURNAL AFTN SC....PROBABLY
MOST PREVALENT NW PTN OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.

FCST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RAISED
SLIGHTLY PER THE MILDER 12Z/29 ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION...SO A FAIR FCST IS EXPECTED FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THU NIGHT WITH LOW RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST/PINE BARRENS...TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRI
NIGHT AND THEN COMBINES WITH A SECOND LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SAT. THIS LOW THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THRU SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. SCT SHOWERS FRI NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA SAT WITH THE GREATEST POPS SAT/SAT NIGHT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE END SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. HIGHS SAT WILL
BE COLD WITH WIDESPREAD 40S OVER THE AREA. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT... THE DEEP LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM
THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT MOSTLY
IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S FAR NORTH. WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25
MPH MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.

MON THRU TUE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CREST OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC TUE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW
NORMAL MON THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WED. WE HAVE USED WPC POPS/TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS CONTINUING TO GENERALLY THIN OUT FROM WEST
TO EAST. A SHOWER LINGERING NEAR KMIV AND KACY ON SOUTH AND EAST
THIS EVENING. LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST, WITH
SOME AREAS HAVING A CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND. SOME LOCALIZED
IFR/MVFR FOG ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AT KRDG AND KABE, AND POSSIBLY
KMIV LATER.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A CEILING DEVELOPS FOR A TIME IN THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES WITH
OCNL SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING SAT AND LASTING INTO SAT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO
15 KT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT BUILDING TO GALES
SAT WHICH CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ROUGH SURF AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
   WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON NGT THRU WED...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
DELIVER ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
MAY OCCUR DURING THE HIGH TIDES DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 292142
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
542 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED TO OUR EAST. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST SATURDAY WHILE STRENGTHENING, THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY
FROM OUR AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EAST OF OUR AREA WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS FAIRLY
FAR BEHIND IT. THE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS THOUGH HAS BEEN FALLING
APART AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD AS IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING SHIFTS AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HOWEVER, SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY
AND LIFT LOOKS TO SLIDE NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND
THEREFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR AWHILE WITH PERHAPS
EVEN AN INCREASE FOR A TIME THERE. THE POPS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY,
WITH SOME DECREASE TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED QUITE A BIT IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT, THEREFORE THE HOURLY GRIDS NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS.
THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH THIS SO
FAR.

DURING THE NIGHT, CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO
EAST-NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH SOME STRATOCUMULUS MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A NICE FALL DAY WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND DIURNAL AFTN SC....PROBABLY
MOST PREVALENT NW PTN OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.

FCST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RAISED
SLIGHTLY PER THE MILDER 12Z/29 ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION...SO A FAIR FCST IS EXPECTED FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THU NIGHT WITH LOW RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST/PINE BARRENS...TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRI
NIGHT AND THEN COMBINES WITH A SECOND LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SAT. THIS LOW THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THRU SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. SCT SHOWERS FRI NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA SAT WITH THE GREATEST POPS SAT/SAT NIGHT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE END SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. HIGHS SAT WILL
BE COLD WITH WIDESPREAD 40S OVER THE AREA. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT... THE DEEP LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM
THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT MOSTLY
IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S FAR NORTH. WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25
MPH MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.

MON THRU TUE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CREST OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC TUE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW
NORMAL MON THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WED. WE HAVE USED WPC POPS/TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS FROM NEAR KTTN, KPHL METRO AND KILG
ON EASTWARD EARLY, THEN VFR CEILINGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. SOME POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KRDG, KABE
AND KMIV TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET, POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY BROKEN COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES WITH
OCNL SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING SAT AND LASTING INTO SAT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

NW WIND BRIEFLY GUSTY TO 25 KT THIS EVENING SUBSEQUENT TO CFP OTRW
NW WIND 5 TO 15 KT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT BUILDING TO GALES
SAT WHICH CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ROUGH SURF AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
   WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON NGT THRU WED...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
DELIVER ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
MAY OCCUR DURING THE HIGH TIDES DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44009 WIND OUT OF SERVICE AND NO SERVICE DATE FOR REPAIR AS
OF YET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291951
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS DEEP LOW WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOUNT HOLLY IS ALSO SERVICE BACKING UP STERLING THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
YOU`LL SEE STERLING FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS MOUNT HOLLY.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BAND OF SHOWERS PROGRESSING ENEWD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. DRYING OCCURRING IN THE LOW LVLS
WITH THE PRIOR EARLY AFTN CFP LIMITS POTENTIAL RAINFALL. WNW WINDS
GUSTY TO 22 KT FOR AN HOUR OR SO JUST AFTER CFP IN NJ/DE.

TONIGHT...CLEARING FROM WSW TO ENE SUBSEQUENT TO THIS BAND OF
SHOWERS ENDING. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TOMORROW
MORNING IN SOME OF THE TYPICAL LOW LYING COUNTRYSIDE VALLEYS...LOW
LYING AREAS.

FCST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A NICE FALL DAY WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND DIURNAL AFTN SC....PROBABLY
MOST PREVALENT NW PTN OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.

FCST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RAISED
SLIGHTLY PER THE MILDER 12Z/29 ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION...SO A FAIR FCST IS EXPECTED FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THU NIGHT WITH LOW RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST/PINE BARRENS...TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRI
NIGHT AND THEN COMBINES WITH A SECOND LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SAT. THIS LOW THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THRU SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. SCT SHOWERS FRI NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA SAT WITH THE GREATEST POPS SAT/SAT NIGHT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE END SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. HIGHS SAT WILL
BE COLD WITH WIDESPREAD 40S OVER THE AREA. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT... THE DEEP LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM
THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT MOSTLY
IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S FAR NORTH. WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25
MPH MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.

MON THRU TUE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CREST OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC TUE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW
NORMAL MON THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WED. WE HAVE USED WPC POPS/TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR MOUNT HOLLY:

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
AOA 3500 FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IS POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVIER SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LEFTOVER RAIN
KACY/KMIV AND SE DELAWARE ENDING BY 01Z/30. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.
FCSTG POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KRDG/KABE/KMIV AFTER 05Z.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT POSSIBLY BRIEFLY BKN IN
THE AFTN.  NW WIND WITH GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

FOR STERLING: NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINANT VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM
WSW TO ENE. SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS ENDING SHORTLY, PER THE
TAFS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH DIURNAL SC IN THE AFTN. LIGHT N TO NW WIND.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES WITH
OCNL SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING SAT AND LASTING INTO SAT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
44065 HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WINDS OTS AND WE DONT KNOW A SERVICE
DATE FOR REPAIR YET.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

NW WIND BRIEFLY GUSTY TO 22 KT THIS EVENING SUBSEQUENT TO CFP OTRW
NW WIND 5 TO 15 KT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT BUILDING TO GALES
SAT WHICH CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ROUGH SURF AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
   WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON NGT THRU WED...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DELIVER ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING THE
HIGH TIDES SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
44065 BUOY HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WIND OTS AND NO SERVICE DATE
FOR REPAIR AS YET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 350
SHORT TERM...DRAG 350
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 350
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 291931
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
331 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS DEEP LOW WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOUNT HOLLY IS ALSO SERVICE BACKING UP STERLING THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
YOU`LL SEE STERLING FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS MOUNT HOLLY.

REST OF TODAY...BAND OF SHOWERS PROGRESSING ENEWD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME. DRYING OCCURRING IN THE LOW LVLS WITH THE PRIOR
EARLY AFTN CFP LIMITS POTENTIAL RAINFALL. WNW WINDS GUSTY TO 22 KT
FOR AN HOUR OR SO JUST AFTER CFP IN NJ/DE.

TONIGHT...CLEARING FROM WSW TO ENE SUBSEQUENT TO THIS BAND OF
SHOWERS ENDING. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TOMORROW
MORNING IN SOME OF THE TYPICAL LOW LYING COUNTRYSIDE VALLEYS...LOW
LYING AREAS. 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A NICE FALL DAY WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND DIURNAL AFTN SC....PROBABLY
MOST PREVALENT NW PTN OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE RAISED SLIGHTLY
PER THE MILDER 12Z/29 ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION...SO A FAIR FCST IS EXPECTED FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THU NIGHT WITH LOW RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST/PINE BARRENS...TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRI
NIGHT AND THEN COMBINES WITH A SECOND LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SAT. THIS LOW THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THRU SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. SCT SHOWERS FRI NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA SAT WITH THE GREATEST POPS SAT/SAT NIGHT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE END SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. HIGHS SAT WILL
BE COLD WITH WIDESPREAD 40S OVER THE AREA. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT... THE DEEP LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM
THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT MOSTLY
IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S FAR NORTH. WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25
MPH MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.

MON THRU TUE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CREST OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC TUE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW
NORMAL MON THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WED. WE HAVE USED WPC POPS/TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR MOUNT HOLLY:

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
AOA 3500 FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IS POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVIER SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LEFTOVER RAIN
KACY/KMIV AND SE DELAWARE ENDING BY 01Z/30. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.
FCSTG POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KRDG/KABE/KMIV AFTER 05Z.

FOR STERLING: NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINANT VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM
WSW TO ENE. SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS ENDING SHORTLY PER THE
TAFS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH DIURNAL SC IN THE AFTN. LIGHT N TO NW WIND.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES WITH
OCNL SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING SAT AND LASTING INTO SAT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
44065 HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WINDS OTS AND WE DONT KNOW A SERVICE
DATE FOR REPAIR YET.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

NW WIND BRIEFLY GUSTY TO 22 KT THIS EVENING SUBSEQUENT TO CFP OTRW
NW WIND 5 TO 15 KT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT BUILDING TO GALES
SAT WHICH CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ROUGH SURF AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
   WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON NGT THRU WED...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DELIVER ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING THE
HIGH TIDES SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
44065 BUOY HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WIND OTS AND NO SERVICE DATE
FOR REPAIR AS YET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 330P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 330P
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 330P
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 330P
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...330P








000
FXUS61 KPHI 291858
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY WHILE
STRENGTHENING. THIS DEEP LOW WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOUNT HOLLY IS ALSO SERVICE BACKING UP STERLING THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
YOU`LL SEE STERLING FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS MOUNT HOLLY.

1230 PM ESTF: LOWERED TEMPS AS A PROCESS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTN AFTER RAIN DEVELOPS. USED A 50 50 BLEND OF THE NEW 12Z/29
GFS/NAM MOS TEMPS. THERE STILL WILL BE ERRORS BUT TEMPS ARE
NOTABLY COOLER DURING MID AND LATE AFTN PER EXPECTED/MODELED RAIN.

EXPECTING A 2-4 HOUR WIDE BAND OF MEASURABLE SHOWERS. MAX AMT
.4 INCHES IN PWAT OF 1.1 INCHES...HEAVIEST NEAR I-95.

DID NOT INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL VCNTY FENWICK ISLAND DE
LATE TODAY BUT ITS MODELED.

THE CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS OVER E PA AND NE MD IN RAIN COOLING THE
AIR TEMP (WET BULBING) MAY STILL BE 2 DEGREES TOO WARM IN EASTERN
PA DURING MID LATE AFTN (NEAR 52 DEGREES INSTEAD OF THE HOURLY
MID 50S TEMPS AS POSTED AT 1230 PM).

DID NOTICE 1.5 MI MDT TO HEAVY RAIN AT IAD IN THE PAST HOUR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM COASTAL NJ
AND DE AT 17Z. IT TRAILS INTO LOW PRES OVER SE VA WHICH IS A RESPONSE
TO PROCESSES ALOFT THAT WAS GENERATING THE BAND OF RAIN FROM
WESTERN VA INTO E PA NEWD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER ONE THIRD INCH).
ISOLATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRAILING THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACKS FROM VA
TO THE DELMARVA, LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE
SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SHIFTING THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE NJ/DE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR NOT TOO LONG
AFTER PRECIP ENDS- DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ AND OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A 5-10 MPH WIND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH CAA AIDING IN A MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE, WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION...SO A FAIR FCST IS EXPECTED FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THU NIGHT WITH LOW RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST/PINE BARRENS...TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRI
NIGHT AND THEN COMBINES WITH A SECOND LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SAT. THIS LOW THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THRU SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. SCT SHOWERS FRI NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA SAT WITH THE GREATEST POPS SAT/SAT NIGHT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE END SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. HIGHS SAT WILL
BE COLD WITH WIDESPREAD 40S OVER THE AREA. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT... THE DEEP LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM
THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT MOSTLY
IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S FAR NORTH. WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25
MPH MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.

MON THRU TUE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CREST OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC TUE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW
NORMAL MON THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WED. WE HAVE USED WPC POPS/TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR MOUNT HOLLY:

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON AOA 3500 FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IS
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED SEEING THE 2500 FT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND S NJ EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO SEEING THE BRIEF 1MI HEAVY RAIN MVFR CIG
AT KIAD SINCE 17Z. SHOWER BAND LASTS 2-4 HOURS ONCE IT STARTS.

LATEST HIGH RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z NAM ARE SUGGESTING
SHOWERS MAY NOT ARRIVE KACY AND KMIV TIL AROUND 21-22Z AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING.

LIGHT SHIFTING WIND TURNING W TO NW AND BRIEFLY GUSTING 22 KT (1
HOUR LESS) BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LEFTOVER RAIN
KACY/KMIV AND SE DELAWARE ENDING BY 03Z/30. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.
FCSTG POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KRDG/KABE/KMIV AFTER 05Z.

FOR STERLING: NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINANT VFR CIGS. A 2-4 HOUR
WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSES THE AREA WITH BRIEF 1-3 MI RAIN AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...VFR CLEARING WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES WITH
OCNL SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING SAT AND LASTING INTO SAT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
44065 HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WINDS OTS AND WE DONT KNOW A SERVICE
DATE FOR REPAIR YET.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

WIND WAS SHIFTING NW WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
NW WIND TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT BUILDING TO GALES
SAT WHICH CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ROUGH SURF AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
   WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON NGT THRU WED...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DELIVER ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING THE
HIGH TIDES SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
SERVICE BACKUP FOR STERLING - LWX TODAY. HAVE LISTED THIS UNDER
EQUIPMENT...JUST IN CASE THIS SERVICE BACKUP MESSAGE IS MISSED IN
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTION.

44065 BUOY HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WIND OTS AND NO SERVICE DATE
FOR REPAIR AS YET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...O`HARA
EQUIPMENT...DRAG








000
FXUS61 KPHI 291751
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
151 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TRAILS
INTO WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. THE COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT
THE AREA THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, BEFORE
COMBINING WITH A DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW OFFSHORE
OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOUNT HOLLY IS ALSO SERVICE BACKING UP STERLING THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
YOU`LL SEE STERLING FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS MOUNT HOLLY.

1230 PM ESTF: LOWERED TEMPS AS A PROCESS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTN AFTER RAIN DEVELOPS. USED A 50 50 BLEND OF THE NEW 12Z/29
GFS/NAM MOS TEMPS. THERE STILL WILL BE ERRORS BUT TEMPS ARE
NOTABLY COOLER DURING MID AND LATE AFTN PER EXPECTED/MODELED RAIN.

EXPECTING A 2-4 HOUR WIDE BAND OF MEASURABLE SHOWERS. MAX AMT
.4 INCHES IN PWAT OF 1.1 INCHES...HEAVIEST NEAR I-95.

DID NOT INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL VCNTY FENWICK ISLAND DE
LATE TODAY BUT ITS MODELED.

THE CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS OVER E PA AND NE MD IN RAIN COOLING THE
AIR TEMP (WET BULBING) MAY STILL BE 2 DEGREES TOO WARM IN EASTERN
PA DURING MID LATE AFTN (NEAR 52 DEGREES INSTEAD OF THE HOURLY
MID 50S TEMPS AS POSTED AT 1230 PM).

DID NOTICE 1.5 MI MDT TO HEAVY RAIN AT IAD IN THE PAST HOUR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM COASTAL NJ
AND DE AT 17Z. IT TRAILS INTO LOW PRES OVER SE VA WHICH IS A RESPONSE
TO PROCESSES ALOFT THAT WAS GENERATING THE BAND OF RAIN FROM
WESTERN VA INTO E PA NEWD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER ONE THIRD INCH).
ISOLATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRAILING THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACKS FROM VA
TO THE DELMARVA, LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE
SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SHIFTING THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE NJ/DE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR NOT TOO LONG
AFTER PRECIP ENDS- DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ AND OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A 5-10 MPH WIND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH CAA AIDING IN A MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE, WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE A DECLINE IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH. WE
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS THE
PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST UNDERNEATH THE MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH. AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL SWING TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN GETTING ABSORBED BY THE COASTAL LOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY A
COLD RAIN AS MODELS NOW KEEP 925/850 MB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING,
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A MIXTURE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AND
WRAP UP MORE. THE GFS KEEPS THE PRECIP CLOSE TO THE SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL LOW AND MOSTLY OFFSHORE, BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND EXTEND IT PRETTY FAR TO OUR
NORTHWEST, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW THE PRECIP MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LOW PULL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, SO WE`LL HAVE DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
KEEP THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MIX OR COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IF
THERE IS STILL ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO GUST BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY AS A STIFF
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS
COULD CONTINUE TO GUST 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND NOSE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IS FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH IF THE WARM FRONT
PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR MOUNT HOLLY:

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON AOA 3500 FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IS
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED SEEING THE 2500 FT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND S NJ EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO SEEING THE BRIEF 1MI HEAVY RAIN MVFR CIG
AT KIAD SINCE 17Z. SHOWER BAND LASTS 2-4 HOURS ONCE IT STARTS.

LATEST HIGH RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z NAM ARE SUGGESTING
SHOWERS MAY NOT ARRIVE KACY AND KMIV TIL AROUND 21-22Z AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING.

LIGHT SHIFTING WIND TURNING W TO NW AND BRIEFLY GUSTING 22 KT (1
HOUR LESS) BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LEFTOVER RAIN
KACY/KMIV AND SE DELAWARE ENDING BY 03Z/30. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.
FCSTG POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KRDG/KABE/KMIV AFTER 05Z.

FOR STERLING: NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINANT VFR CIGS. A 2-4 HOUR
WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSES THE AREA WITH BRIEF 1-3 MI RAIN AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...VFR CLEARING WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER END VFR OR UPPER END MVFR WITH
CIGS 2,500-3,500 EXPECTED. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
25-30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
44065 HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WINDS OTS AND WE DONT KNOW A SERVICE
DATE FOR REPAIR YET.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

WIND WAS SHIFTING NW WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
NW WIND TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS A SEAS WILL BE INCREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
SERVICE BACKUP FOR STERLING - LWX TODAY. HAVE LISTED THIS UNDER
EQUIPMENT...JUST IN CASE THIS SERVICE BACKUP MESSAGE IS MISSED IN
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTION.

44065 BUOY HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WIND OTS AND NO SERVICE DATE
FOR REPAIR AS YET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 150
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 150
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 150
EQUIPMENT...150








000
FXUS61 KPHI 291639
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1239 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AT NOON WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST THIS EVENING. THE FRONT TRAILS INTO WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
SE VA. THE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, BEFORE COMBINING WITH A DEVELOPING
AND STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY,
THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
MONDAY, THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOUNT HOLLY IS ALSO SERVICE BACKING UP STERLING THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
YOU`LL SEE STERLING FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS MOUNT HOLLY.

1230 PM ESTF: LOWERED TEMPS AS A PROCESS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTN AFTER RAIN DEVELOPS. USED A 50 50 BLEND OF THE NEW 12Z/29
GFS/NAM MOS TEMPS. THERE STILL WILL BE ERRORS BUT TEMPS ARE
NOTABLY COOLER DURING MID AND LATE AFTN PER EXPECTED/MODELED RAIN.

EXPECTING A 2-4 HOUR WIDE BAND OF MEASURABLE SHOWERS. MAX AMT
.4 INCHES IN PWAT OF 1.1 INCHES...HEAVIEST NEAR I-95.

DID NOT INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL VCNTY FENWICK ISLAND DE
LATE TODAY BUT ITS MODELED.

THE CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS OVER E PA AND NE MD IN RAIN COOLING THE
AIR TEMP (WET BULBING) MAY STILL BE 2 DEGREES TOO WARM IN EASTERN
PA DURING MID LATE AFTN (NEAR 52 DEGREES INSTEAD OF THE HOURLY
MID 50S TEMPS AS POSTED AT 1230 PM).

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM EASTERN NJ
AT 17Z. IT TRAILS INTO LOW PRES OVER SE VA WHICH IS A RESPONSE TO
PROCESSES ALOFT THAT WAS GENERATING THE BAND OF RAIN FROM WESTERN
VA INTO E PA NEWD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER ONE THIRD INCH).
ISOLATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRAILING THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACKS FROM VA
TO THE DELMARVA, LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE
SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SHIFTING THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE NJ/DE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR NOT TOO LONG
AFTER PRECIP ENDS- DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ AND OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A 5-10 MPH WIND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH CAA AIDING IN A MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE, WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE A DECLINE IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH. WE
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS THE
PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST UNDERNEATH THE MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH. AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL SWING TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN GETTING ABSORBED BY THE COASTAL LOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY A
COLD RAIN AS MODELS NOW KEEP 925/850 MB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING,
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A MIXTURE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AND
WRAP UP MORE. THE GFS KEEPS THE PRECIP CLOSE TO THE SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL LOW AND MOSTLY OFFSHORE, BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND EXTEND IT PRETTY FAR TO OUR
NORTHWEST, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW THE PRECIP MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LOW PULL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, SO WE`LL HAVE DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
KEEP THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MIX OR COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IF
THERE IS STILL ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO GUST BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY AS A STIFF
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS
COULD CONTINUE TO GUST 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND NOSE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IS FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH IF THE WARM FRONT
PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR MOUNT HOLLY:

THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AOA 3500
FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHRA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDS IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. SHOWER BAND LASTS 2-4 HOURS ONCE IT STARTS.

LATEST HIGH RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z NAM ARE SUGGESTING
SHOWERS MAY NOT ARRIVE KACY AND KMIV TIL AROUND 21Z AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING.

LIGHT SHIFTING WIND TURNING W TO NW AND BRIEFLY GUSTING 20 KT (1
HOUR LESS) BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LEFTOVER RAIN
KACY/KMIV AND SE DELAWARE ENDING BY 03Z/30. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.

FOR STERLING: NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CIGS. A 2-4 HOUR WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS
CROSSES THE AREA. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN A HEAVIER SHOWER.

TONIGHT...CLEARING WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER END VFR OR UPPER END MVFR WITH
CIGS 2,500-3,500 EXPECTED. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
25-30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
44065 HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WINDS OTS AND WE DONT KNOW A
SERVICE DATE YET.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SW WIND 10-15 KT SHIFTING WNW BY MID AFTERNOON WITH SCT GUSTS TO 20
KT. NW WIND TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS A SEAS WILL BE INCREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
SERVICE BACKUP FOR STERLING - LWX TODAY. HAVE LISTED THIS UNDER
EQUIPMENT...JUST IN CASE THIS SERVICE BACKUP MESSAGE IS MISSED IN
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTION.

44009 BUOY HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WIND OTS AND NO SERVICE DATE
YET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1239
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1239
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1239
EQUIPMENT...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 291603
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1203 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
BEFORE COMBINING WITH A DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOUNT HOLLY IS ALSO SERVICE BACKING UP STERLING THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
YOU`LL SEE STERLING FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS MOUNT HOLLY.

1152 AM ESTF: INCREASED SHOWER PROB THIS AFTERNOON BY 30-40 PCT
PER THE RADAR...HRRR...12Z NAM/12Z GFS QPF FCST AS WELL AS WPC
QPF. EXPECTING A 2-4 HOUR WIDE BAND OF MEASURABLE SHOWERS. MAX AMT
.4 INCHES IN PWAT OF 1.1 INCHES...HEAVIEST NEAR I-95.

DID NOT INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL VCNTY FENWICK ISLAND DE
LATE TODAY BUT ITS MODELED.

THE CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS OVER E PA AND NE MD IN RAIN COOLING THE
AIR TEMP (WET BULBING) MAY BE 5 DEGREES TOO WARM IN EASTERN PA
DURING MID AFTN (NEAR 52 DEGREES INSTEAD OF THE HOURLY UPPER 50S-
NEAR 60 TEMPS AS POSTED AT 930AM). WE MAY LOWER THOSE MID AFTN
TEMPS IN THE 1230 PM ESTF.

A COLD FRONT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THRU
EASTERN PA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS, THE TREND WAS TO
SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AS THE SEPARATION DISTANCE
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL LIFT FROM THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
GROWS. MADE NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE POP/WX GRIDS TO TAKE THE DELAY
INTO ACCOUNT. SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER ONE THIRD INCH). ISOLATED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRAILING THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACKS FROM VA TO
THE DELMARVA, LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SHIFTING THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE NJ/DE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR NOT TOO LONG
AFTER PRECIP ENDS- DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ AND OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A 5-10 MPH WIND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH CAA AIDING IN A MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE, WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE A DECLINE IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH. WE
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS THE
PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST UNDERNEATH THE MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH. AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL SWING TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN GETTING ABSORBED BY THE COASTAL LOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY A
COLD RAIN AS MODELS NOW KEEP 925/850 MB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING,
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A MIXTURE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AND
WRAP UP MORE. THE GFS KEEPS THE PRECIP CLOSE TO THE SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL LOW AND MOSTLY OFFSHORE, BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND EXTEND IT PRETTY FAR TO OUR
NORTHWEST, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW THE PRECIP MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LOW PULL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, SO WE`LL HAVE DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
KEEP THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MIX OR COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IF
THERE IS STILL ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO GUST BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY AS A STIFF
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS
COULD CONTINUE TO GUST 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND NOSE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IS FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH IF THE WARM FRONT
PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR MOUNT HOLLY:

THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AOA 5000
FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHRA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDS IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. SHOWER BAND LASTS 2-4 HOURS ONCE IT STARTS.

LATEST HIGH RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z NAM ARE SUGGESTING
SHOWERS MAY NOT ARRIVE KACY AND KMIV TIL AROUND 21Z AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING.

LIGHT SHIFTING WIND TURNING W TO NW AND BRIEFLY GUSTING 20 KT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LEFTOVER RAIN
KACY/KMIV AND SE DELAWARE ENDING BY 03Z/30. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.

FOR STERLING: NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CIGS. A 2-4 HOUR WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS
CROSSES THE AREA. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN A HEAVIER SHOWER.

TONIGHT...CLEARING WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER END VFR OR UPPER END MVFR WITH
CIGS 2,500-3,500 EXPECTED. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
25-30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
44065 HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WINDS OTS AND WE DONT KNOW A
SERVICE DATE YET.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SW WIND 10-15 KT SHIFTING WNW LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GUST TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. NW WIND TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS A SEAS WILL BE INCREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
SERVICE BACKUP FOR STERLING - LWX TODAY. HAVE LISTED THIS UNDER
EQUIPMENT...JUST IN CASE THIS SERVICE BACKUP MESSAGE IS MISSED IN
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTION.

44009 BUOY HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WIND OTS AND NO SERVICE DATE
YET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1202P
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1202 P
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
EQUIPMENT...1202P








000
FXUS61 KPHI 291403
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1003 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
BEFORE COMBINING WITH A DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOUNT HOLLY IS ALSO SERVICE BACKING UP STERLING THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
YOU`LL SEE STERLING FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS MOUNT HOLLY.

930 AM ESTF: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PRIOR FORECAST FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER A WORD OF CAUTION...THE CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS OVER E PA
AND NE MD IN RAIN COOLING THE AIR TEMP (WET BULBING) MAY BE 5
DEGREES TOO WARM IN EASTERN PA DURING MID AFTN (NEAR 52 DEGREES
INSTEAD OF THE HOURLY UPPER 50S-NEAR 60 TEMPS AS POSTED AT 930AM).
ONCE WE`RE MORE CONFIDENT...WE MAY RAISE POPS 30-40 PCT FOR THIS AFTN
IN E PA TO CATEGORICAL AND LOWER MID AFTN TEMPS...WONT KNOW MUCH
MORE TILL 11 AM OR NOON. 12Z NAM IS STARTING TO MIRROR THE WETTER
HEAVIER 06Z/29 GFS.

A COLD FRONT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THRU
EASTERN PA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS, THE TREND WAS TO
SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AS THE SEPARATION DISTANCE
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL LIFT FROM THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
GROWS. MADE NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE POP/WX GRIDS TO TAKE THE DELAY
INTO ACCOUNT. SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER ONE THIRD INCH). ISOLATED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRAILING THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACKS FROM VA TO
THE DELMARVA, LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SHIFTING THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE NJ/DE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR NOT TOO LONG
AFTER PRECIP ENDS- DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ AND OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A 5-10 MPH WIND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH CAA AIDING IN A MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE, WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE A DECLINE IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH. WE
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS THE
PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST UNDERNEATH THE MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH. AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL SWING TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN GETTING ABSORBED BY THE COASTAL LOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY A
COLD RAIN AS MODELS NOW KEEP 925/850 MB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING,
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A MIXTURE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AND
WRAP UP MORE. THE GFS KEEPS THE PRECIP CLOSE TO THE SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL LOW AND MOSTLY OFFSHORE, BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND EXTEND IT PRETTY FAR TO OUR
NORTHWEST, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW THE PRECIP MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LOW PULL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, SO WE`LL HAVE DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
KEEP THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MIX OR COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IF
THERE IS STILL ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO GUST BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY AS A STIFF
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS
COULD CONTINUE TO GUST 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND NOSE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IS FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH IF THE WARM FRONT
PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR MOUNT HOLLY:

TODAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS TODAY AOA 5000 FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT
CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDS IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.

LATEST HIGH RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z NAM ARE SUGGESTING
SHOWERS MAY NOT ARRIVE KACY AND KMIV TIL AROUND 21Z AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING.

LIGHT SHIFTING WIND TURNING W TO NW AND BRIEFLY GUSTING 20 KT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LEFTOVER RAIN
KACY/KMIV AND SE DELAWARE ENDING BY 03Z/30. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.

FOR STERLING: NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

ALL TAFS WERE AMENDED BETWEEN 930 AND 10AM FOR A DELAY IN SHOWERS
AND/OR ADDITIONAL TAF INFO BEYOND 24 HOURS.

TODAY...VFR CIGS. CDFNT CROSSING TERMINALS TDA. THE WSHFT TO NW
WILL COME FIRST...AND IS IN PROGRESS NOW THROUGH KBWI KDCA.
SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THE WIND SHIFT BY ABOUT 2-4 HOURS AND BRIEF
MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN A HEAVIER SHOWER.

TONIGHT...CLEARING WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER END VFR OR UPPER END MVFR WITH
CIGS 2,500-3,500 EXPECTED. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
25-30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SW WIND 10-15 KT SHIFTING WNW LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GUST TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. NW WIND TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS A SEAS WILL BE INCREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
SERVICE BACKUP FOR STERLING - LWX TODAY. HAVE LISTED THIS UNDER
EQUIPMENT...JUST IN CASE THIS SERVICE BACKUP MESSAGE IS MISSED IN
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN  1003A
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1003A
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1003A
EQUIPMENT...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 291253
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
853 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
BEFORE COMBINING WITH A DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOUNT HOLLY IS ALSO SERVICE BACKING UP STERLING THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
YOU`LL SEE STERLING FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS MOUNT HOLLY.

A COLD FRONT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THRU
EASTERN PA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS, THE TREND WAS TO
SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AS THE SEPARATION DISTANCE
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL LIFT FROM THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
GROWS. MADE NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE POP/WX GRIDS TO TAKE THE DELAY
INTO ACCOUNT. SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AROUND ONE-TENTH INCH). SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
TRAILING THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACKS FROM VA TO THE DELMARVA,
LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S IN NORTHEASTERN PA/NW NJ TO AROUND
70F NEAR THE COAST. THESE HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR IN WAKE OF
FROPA/PRESSURE TROUGH AS WARMER AIR INITIALLY MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE COLDER AIR LAGS WELL BEHIND. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
LATER IN THE DAY AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SHIFTING THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE NJ/DE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR NOT TOO LONG
AFTER PRECIP ENDS- DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ AND OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A 5-10 MPH WIND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH CAA AIDING IN A MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE, WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE A DECLINE IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH. WE
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS THE
PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST UNDERNEATH THE MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH. AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL SWING TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN GETTING ABSORBED BY THE COASTAL LOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY A
COLD RAIN AS MODELS NOW KEEP 925/850 MB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING,
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A MIXTURE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AND
WRAP UP MORE. THE GFS KEEPS THE PRECIP CLOSE TO THE SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL LOW AND MOSTLY OFFSHORE, BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND EXTEND IT PRETTY FAR TO OUR
NORTHWEST, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW THE PRECIP MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LOW PULL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, SO WE`LL HAVE DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
KEEP THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MIX OR COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IF
THERE IS STILL ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO GUST BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY AS A STIFF
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS
COULD CONTINUE TO GUST 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND NOSE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IS FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH IF THE WARM FRONT
PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR MOUNT HOLLY:

TODAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS TODAY AOA 5000 FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT
CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDS IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SHIFTING
WIND TURNING W TO NW AND BRIEFLY GUSTING 20 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LEFTOVER RAIN
IN S DELAWARE ENDING. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.

FOR STERLING: NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

TODAY...VFR CIGS. CDFNT CROSSING TERMINALS TDA. THE WSHFT TO NW
WILL COME FIRST...AND IS IN PROGRESS NOW THROUGH KBWI KDCA.
SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THE WIND SHIFT BY ABOUT 2-4 HOURS AND BRIEF
MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN A HEAVIER SHOWER.

TONIGHT...CLEARING WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER END VFR OR UPPER END MVFR WITH
CIGS 2,500-3,500 EXPECTED. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
25-30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WIND 10-15 KT SHIFTING WNW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. NW WIND TONIGHT AT
10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS A SEAS WILL BE INCREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
SERVICE BACKUP FOR STERLING - LWX TODAY. LISTED UNDER EQUIPMENT...JUST
IN CASE THE MESSAGE IS MISSED IN THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 852
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON 852
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON 852
EQUIPMENT...852









000
FXUS61 KPHI 291037 AAA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
637 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
BEFORE COMBINING WITH A DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER TROUGH TO
OUR WEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. THIS TROUGH WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VERTICALLY-STACKED CYCLONE JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY.
AT THE SURFACE, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED JUST WEST OF
I-81 IN CENTRAL PA AT 07Z. AN ANAFRONTAL STRUCTURE WAS NOTED WITH
THIS FRONT AS PRECIP AND SOUTHWEST FLOW TRAILS THE BOUNDARY.

THE COLD FRONT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THRU
EASTERN PA EARLY THIS MORNING AND OFF THE COAST BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS, THE
TREND WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AS THE SEPARATION
DISTANCE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL LIFT FROM THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH GROWS. MADE NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE POP/WX GRIDS TO TAKE THE
DELAY INTO ACCOUNT. SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AROUND ONE-TENTH INCH).
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRAILING THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACKS FROM VA TO THE
DELMARVA, LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S IN NORTHEASTERN PA/NW NJ TO AROUND
70F NEAR THE COAST. THESE HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR IN WAKE OF
FROPA/PRESSURE TROUGH AS WARMER AIR INITIALLY MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE COLDER AIR LAGS WELL BEHIND. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
LATER IN THE DAY AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SHIFTING THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE NJ/DE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR NOT TOO LONG
AFTER PRECIP ENDS- DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ AND OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A 5-10 MPH WIND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH CAA AIDING IN A MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE, WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE A DECLINE IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH. WE
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS THE
PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST UNDERNEATH THE MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH. AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL SWING TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN GETTING ABSORBED BY THE COASTAL LOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY A
COLD RAIN AS MODELS NOW KEEP 925/850 MB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING,
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A MIXTURE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AND
WRAP UP MORE. THE GFS KEEPS THE PRECIP CLOSE TO THE SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL LOW AND MOSTLY OFFSHORE, BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND EXTEND IT PRETTY FAR TO OUR
NORTHWEST, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW THE PRECIP MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LOW PULL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, SO WE`LL HAVE DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
KEEP THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MIX OR COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IF
THERE IS STILL ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO GUST BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY AS A STIFF
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS
COULD CONTINUE TO GUST 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND NOSE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IS FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH IF THE WARM FRONT
PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY WILL BE PREDOMINATELY VFR TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER SHRA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE VERY LOW IN THIS HAPPENING. DELAYED
ARRIVAL OF SHRA WITH THE 06Z TAFS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCES
BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
00Z-06Z. LIGHT SW WINDS EARLY THIS MRNG BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTN
AND EVENTUALLY NW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER END VFR OR UPPER END MVFR WITH
CIGS 2,500-3,500 EXPECTED. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
25-30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WAS CANCELLED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS HAVE REMAINED
STEADY AROUND 3-4 FT AND WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS A SEAS WILL BE INCREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON









000
FXUS61 KPHI 291037 AAA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
637 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
BEFORE COMBINING WITH A DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER TROUGH TO
OUR WEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. THIS TROUGH WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VERTICALLY-STACKED CYCLONE JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY.
AT THE SURFACE, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED JUST WEST OF
I-81 IN CENTRAL PA AT 07Z. AN ANAFRONTAL STRUCTURE WAS NOTED WITH
THIS FRONT AS PRECIP AND SOUTHWEST FLOW TRAILS THE BOUNDARY.

THE COLD FRONT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THRU
EASTERN PA EARLY THIS MORNING AND OFF THE COAST BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS, THE
TREND WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AS THE SEPARATION
DISTANCE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL LIFT FROM THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH GROWS. MADE NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE POP/WX GRIDS TO TAKE THE
DELAY INTO ACCOUNT. SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AROUND ONE-TENTH INCH).
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRAILING THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACKS FROM VA TO THE
DELMARVA, LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S IN NORTHEASTERN PA/NW NJ TO AROUND
70F NEAR THE COAST. THESE HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR IN WAKE OF
FROPA/PRESSURE TROUGH AS WARMER AIR INITIALLY MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE COLDER AIR LAGS WELL BEHIND. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
LATER IN THE DAY AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SHIFTING THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE NJ/DE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR NOT TOO LONG
AFTER PRECIP ENDS- DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ AND OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A 5-10 MPH WIND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH CAA AIDING IN A MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE, WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE A DECLINE IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH. WE
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS THE
PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST UNDERNEATH THE MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH. AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL SWING TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN GETTING ABSORBED BY THE COASTAL LOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY A
COLD RAIN AS MODELS NOW KEEP 925/850 MB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING,
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A MIXTURE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AND
WRAP UP MORE. THE GFS KEEPS THE PRECIP CLOSE TO THE SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL LOW AND MOSTLY OFFSHORE, BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND EXTEND IT PRETTY FAR TO OUR
NORTHWEST, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW THE PRECIP MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LOW PULL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, SO WE`LL HAVE DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
KEEP THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MIX OR COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IF
THERE IS STILL ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO GUST BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY AS A STIFF
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS
COULD CONTINUE TO GUST 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND NOSE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IS FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH IF THE WARM FRONT
PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY WILL BE PREDOMINATELY VFR TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER SHRA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE VERY LOW IN THIS HAPPENING. DELAYED
ARRIVAL OF SHRA WITH THE 06Z TAFS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCES
BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
00Z-06Z. LIGHT SW WINDS EARLY THIS MRNG BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTN
AND EVENTUALLY NW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER END VFR OR UPPER END MVFR WITH
CIGS 2,500-3,500 EXPECTED. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
25-30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WAS CANCELLED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS HAVE REMAINED
STEADY AROUND 3-4 FT AND WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS A SEAS WILL BE INCREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON









000
FXUS61 KPHI 290758
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
BEFORE COMBINING WITH A DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER TROUGH TO
OUR WEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. THIS TROUGH WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VERTICALLY-STACKED CYCLONE JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY.
AT THE SURFACE, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED JUST WEST OF
I-81 IN CENTRAL PA AT 07Z. AN ANAFRONTAL STRUCTURE WAS NOTED WITH
THIS FRONT AS PRECIP AND SOUTHWEST FLOW TRAILS THE BOUNDARY.

THE COLD FRONT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THRU
EASTERN PA EARLY THIS MORNING AND OFF THE COAST BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS, THE
TREND WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AS THE SEPARATION
DISTANCE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL LIFT FROM THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH GROWS. MADE NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE POP/WX GRIDS TO TAKE THE
DELAY INTO ACCOUNT. SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AROUND ONE-TENTH INCH).
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRAILING THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACKS FROM VA TO THE
DELMARVA, LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S IN NORTHEASTERN PA/NW NJ TO AROUND
70F NEAR THE COAST. THESE HIGHS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BEFORE TEMPS FALL BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN THE SHOWERS ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SHIFTING THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE NJ/DE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR NOT TOO LONG
AFTER PRECIP ENDS- DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ AND OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A 5-10 MPH WIND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH CAA AIDING IN A MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE, WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE A DECLINE IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH. WE
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS THE
PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST UNDERNEATH THE MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH. AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL SWING TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN GETTING ABSORBED BY THE COASTAL LOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY A
COLD RAIN AS MODELS NOW KEEP 925/850 MB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING,
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A MIXTURE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AND
WRAP UP MORE. THE GFS KEEPS THE PRECIP CLOSE TO THE SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL LOW AND MOSTLY OFFSHORE, BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND EXTEND IT PRETTY FAR TO OUR
NORTHWEST, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW THE PRECIP MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LOW PULL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, SO WE`LL HAVE DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
KEEP THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MIX OR COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IF
THERE IS STILL ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO GUST BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY AS A STIFF
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS
COULD CONTINUE TO GUST 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND NOSE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IS FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH IF THE WARM FRONT
PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY WILL BE PREDOMINATELY VFR TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER SHRA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE VERY LOW IN THIS HAPPENING. DELAYED
ARRIVAL OF SHRA WITH THE 06Z TAFS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCES
BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
00Z-06Z. LIGHT SW WINDS EARLY THIS MRNG BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTN
AND EVENTUALLY NW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER END VFR OR UPPER END MVFR WITH
CIGS 2,500-3,500 EXPECTED. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
25-30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SWLY WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT WITH ISOLATED 20 KT GUSTS BEING
OBSERVED AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS. LATEST BUOY REPORTS SHOW WAVES EVER
SO GRADUALLY INCREASING TO AROUND 4 FT AS OF 07Z. WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THRU 2 PM TODAY FOR
NOW. HOWEVER, IF WINDS/WAVES DO NOT INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
THEN SCA WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS A SEAS WILL BE INCREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON






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