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000
FXUS61 KPHI 030127
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON SATURDAY AND THEN STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THEN SLIDE ACROSS TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AT 9 PM, SFC COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NY AND CENTRAL PA STRETCHES
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST PA (FROPA THRU PITTSBURGH). DESPITE THE
BEST WIND FIELD ALOFT AND DYNAMICS FROM THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
STAYING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA, CONVECTION OVER THE DE/CHSPK
BAY REGIONS HAS BEEN MORE ROBUST AS IT MOVED INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AND MOIST PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE ACCORDINGLY BEEN ABLE TO BE MAINTAINED AFTER SUNSET AND HAVE
BEEN LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE AT TIMES, BUT EVENTUALLY THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND AS THESE STORMS MOVE
FARTHER EAST LATE THIS EVENING. POPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON
RECENT RADAR TRENDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE THE POCONOS LATE THIS EVE BEFORE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THRU SOUTHEAST PA AND CENTRAL/NORTHWEST NJ
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS TO BE EXITING THE NJ AND
DE COASTS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. THE FRONT MAY NOT PASS THRU
ACY-DOV-GED UNTIL THE MORNING. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND WITH THE
CAA BEHIND OF THE FRONT BEING WEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THERE WON`T BE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE
TEMPERATURES POST FRONTAL (HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S ACROSS
THE REGION). HOWEVER, WHAT THE FRONT WILL BE BRINGING IS CONSIDERABLE DRY
AIR ADVECTION. DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THUS, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE
BEEN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AIR TEMPERATURE TODAY, BY TOMORROW, HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE RIGHT AT THE AIR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS IT SHIFTS JUST TO TOUR SOUTH AND EAST
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND IN RETURN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MIMIC
MORE OF MID SUMMER AS OPPOSED TO LATE SUMMER AND WE WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WE WILL BE AWAITING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE
SLOW MOVING AND MAY TAKE ALL DAY TO CROSS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THEN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MOST POINTS. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND
THIS WILL LIKELY HELP SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ANY PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION AND SHOWERS. SATURDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THIS HEAT
WAVE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS QUITE A BIT.

SUNDAY...THE FRONT IS SLOW ENOUGH THAT WE MAY NOT SEE IT CLEAR THE
DELMARVA AREA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH, THE
QUESTION WILL BE, WHERE WILL THE FRONT STALL? CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO GET SOUTH OF
OUR AREA, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO
INFILTRATE OUR REGION. THE SLOW NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH, INTO SUNDAY. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH, ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AREA AND THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH, WE WILL BE IN A MORE
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO
BE COOLER ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE
70S THROUGH THE REGION AND IT WILL TRULY FEEL LIKE FALL OUT THERE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH
BUT AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY, A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND IT STARTS
TO MOVE A BIT. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WAVE HELPS MOVE THE
FRONT SLIGHTLY NORTH AND THEN TO THE EAST, KEEPING THE MAIN
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH SOME LOWER
80S POSSIBLE AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND WE START TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AT 01Z...SECOND ROUND OF STRONG STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU ILG.
THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO MIV
AND ACY BETWEEN 02Z-03Z. HVY DOWNPOURS WILL LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS DURING THIS TIME. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AT THOSE TAF SITES. ELSEWHERE, SCT SHRA POSSIBLE
THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT EDT, BUT AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
MINIMAL.

NOT EXPECTING A SHARP WIND SHIFT WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT,
BUT SWLY WINDS 5-10 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT
OF THE W AND NW BETWEEN 06-12Z. THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF BR
DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, THINK
THIS IS UNLIKELY.

VFR ON WED WITH NW WINDS 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CAUSE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ON THU
AND FRI MORNINGS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH TOMORROW. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVE. A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
20KT EVEN WITH THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SOME STRONGER GUSTS AND HIGHER WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 030127
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
ON SATURDAY AND THEN STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THEN SLIDE ACROSS TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AT 9 PM, SFC COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NY AND CENTRAL PA STRETCHES
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST PA (FROPA THRU PITTSBURGH). DESPITE THE
BEST WIND FIELD ALOFT AND DYNAMICS FROM THE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
STAYING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA, CONVECTION OVER THE DE/CHSPK
BAY REGIONS HAS BEEN MORE ROBUST AS IT MOVED INTO AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AND MOIST PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE ACCORDINGLY BEEN ABLE TO BE MAINTAINED AFTER SUNSET AND HAVE
BEEN LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE AT TIMES, BUT EVENTUALLY THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND AS THESE STORMS MOVE
FARTHER EAST LATE THIS EVENING. POPS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON
RECENT RADAR TRENDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE THE POCONOS LATE THIS EVE BEFORE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THRU SOUTHEAST PA AND CENTRAL/NORTHWEST NJ
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS TO BE EXITING THE NJ AND
DE COASTS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. THE FRONT MAY NOT PASS THRU
ACY-DOV-GED UNTIL THE MORNING. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND WITH THE
CAA BEHIND OF THE FRONT BEING WEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THERE WON`T BE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE
TEMPERATURES POST FRONTAL (HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S ACROSS
THE REGION). HOWEVER, WHAT THE FRONT WILL BE BRINGING IS CONSIDERABLE DRY
AIR ADVECTION. DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THUS, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE
BEEN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AIR TEMPERATURE TODAY, BY TOMORROW, HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE RIGHT AT THE AIR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS IT SHIFTS JUST TO TOUR SOUTH AND EAST
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND IN RETURN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MIMIC
MORE OF MID SUMMER AS OPPOSED TO LATE SUMMER AND WE WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WE WILL BE AWAITING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE
SLOW MOVING AND MAY TAKE ALL DAY TO CROSS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THEN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MOST POINTS. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND
THIS WILL LIKELY HELP SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ANY PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION AND SHOWERS. SATURDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THIS HEAT
WAVE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS QUITE A BIT.

SUNDAY...THE FRONT IS SLOW ENOUGH THAT WE MAY NOT SEE IT CLEAR THE
DELMARVA AREA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH, THE
QUESTION WILL BE, WHERE WILL THE FRONT STALL? CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO GET SOUTH OF
OUR AREA, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO
INFILTRATE OUR REGION. THE SLOW NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH, INTO SUNDAY. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH, ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AREA AND THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH, WE WILL BE IN A MORE
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO
BE COOLER ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE
70S THROUGH THE REGION AND IT WILL TRULY FEEL LIKE FALL OUT THERE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH
BUT AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY, A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND IT STARTS
TO MOVE A BIT. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WAVE HELPS MOVE THE
FRONT SLIGHTLY NORTH AND THEN TO THE EAST, KEEPING THE MAIN
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH SOME LOWER
80S POSSIBLE AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND WE START TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AT 01Z...SECOND ROUND OF STRONG STORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THRU ILG.
THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO MIV
AND ACY BETWEEN 02Z-03Z. HVY DOWNPOURS WILL LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS DURING THIS TIME. LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AT THOSE TAF SITES. ELSEWHERE, SCT SHRA POSSIBLE
THRU ABOUT MIDNIGHT EDT, BUT AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
MINIMAL.

NOT EXPECTING A SHARP WIND SHIFT WITH THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT,
BUT SWLY WINDS 5-10 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT
OF THE W AND NW BETWEEN 06-12Z. THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF BR
DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, THINK
THIS IS UNLIKELY.

VFR ON WED WITH NW WINDS 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CAUSE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ON THU
AND FRI MORNINGS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH TOMORROW. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVE. A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
20KT EVEN WITH THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SOME STRONGER GUSTS AND HIGHER WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN/MEOLA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 021932
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND THEN STALL TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND THEN SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FRONT IS JUST NOW MOVING OFF THE GREAT LAKES INTO FAR WESTERN PA. DO
NOT EXPECT IT TO MAKE ITS ARRIVAL MUCH BEFORE 06Z. HIGH RES MODELS
LIKE THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A LINE OF CONVECTION
MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, BY THAT
TIME, INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WANING AND THERE COULD BE A SMALL
BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION. THUS, THE LINE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. PWATS ARE STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL, SO
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE HIGHEST SHEAR
VALUES SHOULD REMAIN NW OF OUR REGION, COULD SEE A FEW STRONG WINDS
GUSTS WHEN THE FRONT INITIALLY ARRIVES IN SOUTHEAST PA BUT THAT
THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS WE TRANSITION FROM SURFACE BASED TO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE VERY LATE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT, AND THE FACT THAT THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT IS RATHER SMALL, MINS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH LOWER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THERE WON`T BE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE
TEMPERATURES POST FRONTAL (HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S ACROSS
THE REGION). HOWEVER, WHAT THE FRONT WILL BE BRINGING IS CONSIDERABLE DRY
AIR ADVECTION. DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THUS, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE
BEEN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AIR TEMPERATURE TODAY, BY TOMORROW, HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE RIGHT AT THE AIR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS IT SHIFTS JUST TO TOUR SOUTH AND EAST
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND IN RETURN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MIMIC
MORE OF MID SUMMER AS OPPOSED TO LATE SUMMER AND WE WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WE WILL BE AWAITING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE
SLOW MOVING AND MAY TAKE ALL DAY TO CROSS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THEN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MOST POINTS. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND
THIS WILL LIKELY HELP SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ANY PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION AND SHOWERS. SATURDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THIS HEAT
WAVE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS QUITE A BIT.

SUNDAY...THE FRONT IS SLOW ENOUGH THAT WE MAY NOT SEE IT CLEAR THE
DELMARVA AREA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH, THE
QUESTION WILL BE, WHERE WILL THE FRONT STALL? CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO GET SOUTH OF
OUR AREA, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO
INFILTRATE OUR REGION. THE SLOW NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH, INTO SUNDAY. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH, ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AREA AND THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH, WE WILL BE IN A MORE
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO
BE COOLER ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE
70S THROUGH THE REGION AND IT WILL TRULY FEEL LIKE FALL OUT THERE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH
BUT AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY, A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND IT STARTS
TO MOVE A BIT. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WAVE HELPS MOVE THE
FRONT SLIGHTLY NORTH AND THEN TO THE EAST, KEEPING THE MAIN
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH SOME LOWER
80S POSSIBLE AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND WE START TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, THINK THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE REGION. THE COVERAGE THROUGH THIS TIME IS TOO LIMITED
TO MENTION IN MOST OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. STARTING AROUND 00Z, WE
SHOULD SEE A LINE OF SHRA AND TSRA MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS
GENERAL PATTERN AND TIMING. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME QUESTION OF THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE (WHICH MAY NOT GO SOUTH OF PHL), AND IF
THE LINE WILL START TO SCT BEFORE IT REACHES THE DELAWARE RIVER
VALLEY. THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR THE SE PA SITES (KRDG
AND KABE) AND KTTN WHERE THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE, BUT ONLY HAVE
MENTION OF VCSH FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE SITES.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER 06Z, EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF BR
DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, THINK THIS
IS UNLIKELY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CAUSE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ON THU
AND FRI MORNINGS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH TOMORROW. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
20KT EVEN WITH THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SOME STRONGER GUSTS AND HIGHER WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/MEOLA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 021932
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND THEN STALL TO THE SOUTH
OF OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND THEN SLIDE ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FRONT IS JUST NOW MOVING OFF THE GREAT LAKES INTO FAR WESTERN PA. DO
NOT EXPECT IT TO MAKE ITS ARRIVAL MUCH BEFORE 06Z. HIGH RES MODELS
LIKE THE HRRR HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A LINE OF CONVECTION
MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, BY THAT
TIME, INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WANING AND THERE COULD BE A SMALL
BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION. THUS, THE LINE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. PWATS ARE STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL, SO
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE HIGHEST SHEAR
VALUES SHOULD REMAIN NW OF OUR REGION, COULD SEE A FEW STRONG WINDS
GUSTS WHEN THE FRONT INITIALLY ARRIVES IN SOUTHEAST PA BUT THAT
THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS WE TRANSITION FROM SURFACE BASED TO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

GIVEN THE VERY LATE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT, AND THE FACT THAT THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT IS RATHER SMALL, MINS TONIGHT
SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH LOWER THAN THEY WERE THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, THERE WON`T BE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE
TEMPERATURES POST FRONTAL (HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S ACROSS
THE REGION). HOWEVER, WHAT THE FRONT WILL BE BRINGING IS CONSIDERABLE DRY
AIR ADVECTION. DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE REGION BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THUS, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE
BEEN ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE AIR TEMPERATURE TODAY, BY TOMORROW, HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE RIGHT AT THE AIR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS IT SHIFTS JUST TO TOUR SOUTH AND EAST
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND IN RETURN WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MIMIC
MORE OF MID SUMMER AS OPPOSED TO LATE SUMMER AND WE WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE AND WE WILL BE AWAITING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE
SLOW MOVING AND MAY TAKE ALL DAY TO CROSS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THEN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MOST POINTS. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND
THIS WILL LIKELY HELP SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ANY PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION AND SHOWERS. SATURDAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THIS HEAT
WAVE AS COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPS QUITE A BIT.

SUNDAY...THE FRONT IS SLOW ENOUGH THAT WE MAY NOT SEE IT CLEAR THE
DELMARVA AREA UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH, THE
QUESTION WILL BE, WHERE WILL THE FRONT STALL? CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE ENOUGH OF A PUSH TO GET SOUTH OF
OUR AREA, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO
INFILTRATE OUR REGION. THE SLOW NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH, INTO SUNDAY. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH, ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AREA AND THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH, WE WILL BE IN A MORE
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO
BE COOLER ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE
70S THROUGH THE REGION AND IT WILL TRULY FEEL LIKE FALL OUT THERE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH
BUT AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY, A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND IT STARTS
TO MOVE A BIT. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE WAVE HELPS MOVE THE
FRONT SLIGHTLY NORTH AND THEN TO THE EAST, KEEPING THE MAIN
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH SOME LOWER
80S POSSIBLE AS SKIES CLEAR OUT AND WE START TO SEE MORE SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ISOLATED TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER, THINK THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE REGION. THE COVERAGE THROUGH THIS TIME IS TOO LIMITED
TO MENTION IN MOST OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. STARTING AROUND 00Z, WE
SHOULD SEE A LINE OF SHRA AND TSRA MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS
GENERAL PATTERN AND TIMING. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME QUESTION OF THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE LINE (WHICH MAY NOT GO SOUTH OF PHL), AND IF
THE LINE WILL START TO SCT BEFORE IT REACHES THE DELAWARE RIVER
VALLEY. THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR THE SE PA SITES (KRDG
AND KABE) AND KTTN WHERE THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE, BUT ONLY HAVE
MENTION OF VCSH FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE SITES.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER 06Z, EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF BR
DEVELOPMENT BUT WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, THINK THIS
IS UNLIKELY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CAUSE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ON THU
AND FRI MORNINGS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH TOMORROW. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW
20KT EVEN WITH THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SOME STRONGER GUSTS AND HIGHER WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN THE SATURDAY/SUNDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...JOHNSON/MEOLA
MARINE...JOHNSON/MEOLA









000
FXUS61 KPHI 021338
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, THEN
THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. ON SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTHEAST FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. EARLIER PATCHY
FOG HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED, AND CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY BURNED OFF.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK AS MANY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY IN
THE 80S.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...WHILE THE CALENDAR SAYS
SEPTEMBER, IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL LIKE THE HEART OF SUMMER AS
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME
SLIGHT RELIEF THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO LOWER SOME. SYNOPTICALLY, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HELPING TO PUMP UP THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WITHIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE IS HOWEVER A
NOTABLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A
SURFACE FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING GIVEN THE WARM TO HOT AIRMASS. THE EVENTUAL SURFACE
FRONT MAY JUMP INTO THIS TROUGH AS WE WORK OUR WAY INTO THE SHORT
TERM /TONIGHT/. THE FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY REVOLVES AROUND
THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND ALSO THE HEAT INDICES.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD, THE MAIN SHORT
WAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
LEAVES BEHIND THE TAIL END OF IT SLIDING INTO OUR AREA. AS A
RESULT, THE LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE INSTABILITY IN PLACE
ALTHOUGH THIS CAN BE AFFECTED BY THE LOWERING DEW POINTS /AT LEAST
SBCAPE/. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW, HOWEVER THE
CORE /50-60 KNOTS/ OF IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST
WHICH IS WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
INDICATED. THAT STRONGER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR WEST AND THIS IS WHAT WE WILL PROBABLY
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT SURVIVES AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD. IN
ADDITION, SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD FIRE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH. AS A RESULT, WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST. WHILE AN ISOLATED CELL COULD FORM THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER
EAST FROM LOCAL CONVERGENCE, MUCH OF THE TIME WILL PROBABLY BE
RAIN-FREE.

REGARDING THE HEAT, THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR BETTER MIXING BEING PRESENT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SOME AND THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THEREFORE THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO EVEN MID 90S
FOR MANY INLAND AREAS. THE MIXING HOWEVER SHOULD LOWER THE SURFACE
DEW POINTS SOME IN THE AFTERNOON, KEEPING THE HEAT INDICES A BIT
LOWER. AS A RESULT, WE ARE EXPECTING THE HEAT INDICES TO REMAIN
UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA INCLUDING THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS, ALTHOUGH THE
WARMER NAM MOS WAS FAVORED FOR SOME AREAS WHICH ALSO GOT US CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED USING THE LAMP/LAV
GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING TO HELP ASSIST WITH
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT TRENDS THUS FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GENERALLY GLANCE OUR
AREA, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING THROUGH. THE MAIN FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET MAX IS FORECAST TO BYPASS OUR AREA TO THE
NORTHWEST. THERE STILL IS SOME INCREASE IN THE FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING TAKES PLACE. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR LOOKS LOW AND
THEREFORE STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE WEAK AND POTENTIALLY EVEN
DISAPPEAR AS THE EVENING WEARS ON.

THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRONGER
CORES ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND TOWARDS THE DELMARVA, HOWEVER
GIVEN THE BEST FORCING AND SHEAR MISSING OUR AREA THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW AS OF NOW. THEREFORE, NO ENHANCED WORDING
WAS CARRIED ATTM. WE USED CHC POPS THIS EVENING THEN THESE LOWER
FROM WEST TO EAST. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PLUME OF PW AROUND 2 INCHES SURGING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT, THEREFORE ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
BRIEF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ANY FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED
HOWEVER.

THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT
DESPITE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. AS THE CLOUDS THIN OUT SOME
SURFACE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE, HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS LOOK TO
REMAIN ON THE MUGGY SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME LOWERING SHOULD
START TO TAKE PLACE THOUGH LATE MAINLY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP PARTICULARLY WHERE DRY AIR ADVECTION
IS DELAYED. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF FOG, AND GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE WE HELD OFF INCLUDING A MENTION ATTM.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, AN EVEN BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM WAS MAINLY
USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: DRY WITH FEW CLOUDS, FLOW TURNING
GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. THINK THE 00Z GFS IS TO QUICK
SHOWING SOME RETURN FLOW POPS. MUGGY AND HOT AS WELL BUT TEMPS WILL
BE UNDER HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. FAIR SHOT AT 90 THU/FRI FOR PHL.
WENT AT OR A TOUCH ABOVE MET/MAV GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES BASED ON
THE 925/850 MB TEMPERATURE PROFILES.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE A TRIGGER FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE AS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 925 MB TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO
BE A TOUCH HIGHER THAN THU/FRI INDICATING SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES COULD POSSIBLY MAKING A RUN AT THE LOW
PERHAPS MID 90`S BASED ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS INCREASE. WENT
WARMER THAN WPC/MEX GUIDANCE IN THESE PERIODS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN TERMS OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A
MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG) WILL BE
PRESENT WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER THE LACK OF
SHEAR IN PLACE WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. CONTINUED THUNDER IN GRIDS FOR SAT-SAT
NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE 00Z ECMWF
AND CMC SLOW THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES FOCUSED
ACROSS THE SOUTH, PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY BUT LINGER ISOLATED SHOWERS
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE FASTER THAN IT`S
PREVIOUS RUN AND SOME MEMBERS WITHIN THE 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE SUITE
ARGUE FOR A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A MIDDLE GROUND WILL BE USED
WITH CHANCE POPS DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY KEEP
HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY AND LOWS HIGHER AT NIGHT. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AMPLE SUNSHINE MAY ALLOW MOST AREAS TO GET A TOUCH WARMER THAN WHAT
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES OR WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST. RADIATIONAL
COOLING MONDAY NIGHT IS LIKELY AS WELL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
WITH THE FAVORED REGION JUST INLAND OFF THE NJ COAST AND NW PHL
COULD HAVE A RELATIVITY CHILLY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...SOME MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG EARLY MAINLY AT
KABE AND KTTN, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF KPHL AND
THEREFORE A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED TO KRDG AND KABE. A VCSH WAS
CARRIED ELSEWHERE LATE. LIGHT TO EVEN CALM WINDS, BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY. SOME LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS ENOUGH MIXING
DEVELOPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST, WHICH MAY TEND TO DIMINISH
WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED
WITH ANY CONVECTION AND ALSO AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MVFR
CEILINGS WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, OTHERWISE VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE SOME LOCAL
FOG DEVELOPS LATE AS CLOUDS THIN AND THE WINDS DROP OFF WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.

SATURDAY: MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED TODAY WELL AHEAD OF A SURFACE
FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME, HOWEVER THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT MAINLY THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER THESE COULD WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING OUR MARINE AREA. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FEET RANGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, AND 2 FEET
OR LESS ON DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED
ATTM.

SATURDAY: SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORMS,
OTHERWISE SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE








000
FXUS61 KPHI 021338
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, THEN
THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. ON SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTHEAST FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. EARLIER PATCHY
FOG HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED, AND CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY BURNED OFF.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TRACK AS MANY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY IN
THE 80S.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...WHILE THE CALENDAR SAYS
SEPTEMBER, IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL LIKE THE HEART OF SUMMER AS
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME
SLIGHT RELIEF THROUGH THE DAY AS THE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO LOWER SOME. SYNOPTICALLY, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HELPING TO PUMP UP THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WITHIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE IS HOWEVER A
NOTABLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A
SURFACE FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN WELL TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING GIVEN THE WARM TO HOT AIRMASS. THE EVENTUAL SURFACE
FRONT MAY JUMP INTO THIS TROUGH AS WE WORK OUR WAY INTO THE SHORT
TERM /TONIGHT/. THE FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY REVOLVES AROUND
THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND ALSO THE HEAT INDICES.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD, THE MAIN SHORT
WAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
LEAVES BEHIND THE TAIL END OF IT SLIDING INTO OUR AREA. AS A
RESULT, THE LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE INSTABILITY IN PLACE
ALTHOUGH THIS CAN BE AFFECTED BY THE LOWERING DEW POINTS /AT LEAST
SBCAPE/. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW, HOWEVER THE
CORE /50-60 KNOTS/ OF IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST
WHICH IS WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
INDICATED. THAT STRONGER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR WEST AND THIS IS WHAT WE WILL PROBABLY
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT SURVIVES AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD. IN
ADDITION, SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD FIRE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH. AS A RESULT, WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST. WHILE AN ISOLATED CELL COULD FORM THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER
EAST FROM LOCAL CONVERGENCE, MUCH OF THE TIME WILL PROBABLY BE
RAIN-FREE.

REGARDING THE HEAT, THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR BETTER MIXING BEING PRESENT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SOME AND THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THEREFORE THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO EVEN MID 90S
FOR MANY INLAND AREAS. THE MIXING HOWEVER SHOULD LOWER THE SURFACE
DEW POINTS SOME IN THE AFTERNOON, KEEPING THE HEAT INDICES A BIT
LOWER. AS A RESULT, WE ARE EXPECTING THE HEAT INDICES TO REMAIN
UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA INCLUDING THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS, ALTHOUGH THE
WARMER NAM MOS WAS FAVORED FOR SOME AREAS WHICH ALSO GOT US CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED USING THE LAMP/LAV
GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING TO HELP ASSIST WITH
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT TRENDS THUS FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GENERALLY GLANCE OUR
AREA, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING THROUGH. THE MAIN FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET MAX IS FORECAST TO BYPASS OUR AREA TO THE
NORTHWEST. THERE STILL IS SOME INCREASE IN THE FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING TAKES PLACE. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR LOOKS LOW AND
THEREFORE STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE WEAK AND POTENTIALLY EVEN
DISAPPEAR AS THE EVENING WEARS ON.

THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRONGER
CORES ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND TOWARDS THE DELMARVA, HOWEVER
GIVEN THE BEST FORCING AND SHEAR MISSING OUR AREA THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW AS OF NOW. THEREFORE, NO ENHANCED WORDING
WAS CARRIED ATTM. WE USED CHC POPS THIS EVENING THEN THESE LOWER
FROM WEST TO EAST. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PLUME OF PW AROUND 2 INCHES SURGING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT, THEREFORE ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
BRIEF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ANY FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED
HOWEVER.

THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT
DESPITE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. AS THE CLOUDS THIN OUT SOME
SURFACE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE, HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS LOOK TO
REMAIN ON THE MUGGY SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME LOWERING SHOULD
START TO TAKE PLACE THOUGH LATE MAINLY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP PARTICULARLY WHERE DRY AIR ADVECTION
IS DELAYED. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF FOG, AND GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE WE HELD OFF INCLUDING A MENTION ATTM.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, AN EVEN BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM WAS MAINLY
USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: DRY WITH FEW CLOUDS, FLOW TURNING
GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. THINK THE 00Z GFS IS TO QUICK
SHOWING SOME RETURN FLOW POPS. MUGGY AND HOT AS WELL BUT TEMPS WILL
BE UNDER HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. FAIR SHOT AT 90 THU/FRI FOR PHL.
WENT AT OR A TOUCH ABOVE MET/MAV GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES BASED ON
THE 925/850 MB TEMPERATURE PROFILES.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE A TRIGGER FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE AS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 925 MB TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO
BE A TOUCH HIGHER THAN THU/FRI INDICATING SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES COULD POSSIBLY MAKING A RUN AT THE LOW
PERHAPS MID 90`S BASED ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS INCREASE. WENT
WARMER THAN WPC/MEX GUIDANCE IN THESE PERIODS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN TERMS OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A
MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG) WILL BE
PRESENT WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER THE LACK OF
SHEAR IN PLACE WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. CONTINUED THUNDER IN GRIDS FOR SAT-SAT
NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE 00Z ECMWF
AND CMC SLOW THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES FOCUSED
ACROSS THE SOUTH, PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY BUT LINGER ISOLATED SHOWERS
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE FASTER THAN IT`S
PREVIOUS RUN AND SOME MEMBERS WITHIN THE 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE SUITE
ARGUE FOR A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A MIDDLE GROUND WILL BE USED
WITH CHANCE POPS DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY KEEP
HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY AND LOWS HIGHER AT NIGHT. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AMPLE SUNSHINE MAY ALLOW MOST AREAS TO GET A TOUCH WARMER THAN WHAT
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES OR WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST. RADIATIONAL
COOLING MONDAY NIGHT IS LIKELY AS WELL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
WITH THE FAVORED REGION JUST INLAND OFF THE NJ COAST AND NW PHL
COULD HAVE A RELATIVITY CHILLY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...SOME MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG EARLY MAINLY AT
KABE AND KTTN, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF KPHL AND
THEREFORE A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED TO KRDG AND KABE. A VCSH WAS
CARRIED ELSEWHERE LATE. LIGHT TO EVEN CALM WINDS, BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY. SOME LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS ENOUGH MIXING
DEVELOPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST, WHICH MAY TEND TO DIMINISH
WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED
WITH ANY CONVECTION AND ALSO AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MVFR
CEILINGS WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, OTHERWISE VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE SOME LOCAL
FOG DEVELOPS LATE AS CLOUDS THIN AND THE WINDS DROP OFF WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.

SATURDAY: MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED TODAY WELL AHEAD OF A SURFACE
FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME, HOWEVER THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT MAINLY THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER THESE COULD WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING OUR MARINE AREA. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FEET RANGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, AND 2 FEET
OR LESS ON DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED
ATTM.

SATURDAY: SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORMS,
OTHERWISE SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 021031
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
631 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, THEN
THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. ON SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTHEAST FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHILE THE CALENDAR SAYS SEPTEMBER, IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL LIKE
THE HEART OF SUMMER AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME SLIGHT RELIEF THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER SOME. SYNOPTICALLY, HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HELPING TO
PUMP UP THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITHIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE IS
HOWEVER A NOTABLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE IS A SURFACE FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPING GIVEN THE WARM TO HOT AIRMASS. THE EVENTUAL
SURFACE FRONT MAY JUMP INTO THIS TROUGH AS WE WORK OUR WAY INTO THE
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/. THE FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY REVOLVES
AROUND THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND ALSO THE HEAT INDICES.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD, THE MAIN SHORT
WAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
LEAVES BEHIND THE TAIL END OF IT SLIDING INTO OUR AREA. AS A
RESULT, THE LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE INSTABILITY IN PLACE
ALTHOUGH THIS CAN BE AFFECTED BY THE LOWERING DEW POINTS /AT LEAST
SBCAPE/. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW, HOWEVER THE
CORE /50-60 KNOTS/ OF IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST
WHICH IS WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
INDICATED. THAT STRONGER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR WEST AND THIS IS WHAT WE WILL PROBABLY
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT SURVIVES AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD. IN
ADDITION, SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD FIRE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH. AS A RESULT, WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST. WHILE AN ISOLATED CELL COULD FORM THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER
EAST FROM LOCAL CONVERGENCE, MUCH OF THE TIME WILL PROBABLY BE
RAIN-FREE.

REGARDING THE HEAT, THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR BETTER MIXING BEING PRESENT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SOME AND THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THEREFORE THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO EVEN MID 90S
FOR MANY INLAND AREAS. THE MIXING HOWEVER SHOULD LOWER THE SURFACE
DEW POINTS SOME IN THE AFTERNOON, KEEPING THE HEAT INDICES A BIT
LOWER. AS A RESULT, WE ARE EXPECTING THE HEAT INDICES TO REMAIN
UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA INCLUDING THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS, ALTHOUGH THE
WARMER NAM MOS WAS FAVORED FOR SOME AREAS WHICH ALSO GOT US CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED USING THE LAMP/LAV
GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING TO HELP ASSIST WITH
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT TRENDS THUS FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GENERALLY GLANCE OUR
AREA, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING THROUGH. THE MAIN FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET MAX IS FORECAST TO BYPASS OUR AREA TO THE
NORTHWEST. THERE STILL IS SOME INCREASE IN THE FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING TAKES PLACE. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR LOOKS LOW AND
THEREFORE STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE WEAK AND POTENTIALLY EVEN
DISAPPEAR AS THE EVENING WEARS ON.

THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRONGER
CORES ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND TOWARDS THE DELMARVA, HOWEVER
GIVEN THE BEST FORCING AND SHEAR MISSING OUR AREA THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW AS OF NOW. THEREFORE, NO ENHANCED WORDING
WAS CARRIED ATTM. WE USED CHC POPS THIS EVENING THEN THESE LOWER
FROM WEST TO EAST. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PLUME OF PW AROUND 2 INCHES SURGING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT, THEREFORE ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
BRIEF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ANY FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED
HOWEVER.

THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT
DESPITE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. AS THE CLOUDS THIN OUT SOME
SURFACE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE, HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS LOOK TO
REMAIN ON THE MUGGY SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME LOWERING SHOULD
START TO TAKE PLACE THOUGH LATE MAINLY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP PARTICULARLY WHERE DRY AIR ADVECTION
IS DELAYED. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF FOG, AND GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE WE HELD OFF INCLUDING A MENTION ATTM.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, AN EVEN BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM WAS MAINLY
USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: DRY WITH FEW CLOUDS, FLOW TURNING
GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. THINK THE 00Z GFS IS TO QUICK
SHOWING SOME RETURN FLOW POPS. MUGGY AND HOT AS WELL BUT TEMPS WILL
BE UNDER HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. FAIR SHOT AT 90 THU/FRI FOR PHL.
WENT AT OR A TOUCH ABOVE MET/MAV GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES BASED ON
THE 925/850 MB TEMPERATURE PROFILES.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE A TRIGGER FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE AS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 925 MB TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO
BE A TOUCH HIGHER THAN THU/FRI INDICATING SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES COULD POSSIBLY MAKING A RUN AT THE LOW
PERHAPS MID 90`S BASED ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS INCREASE. WENT
WARMER THAN WPC/MEX GUIDANCE IN THESE PERIODS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN TERMS OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A
MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG) WILL BE
PRESENT WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER THE LACK OF
SHEAR IN PLACE WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. CONTINUED THUNDER IN GRIDS FOR SAT-SAT
NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE 00Z ECMWF
AND CMC SLOW THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES FOCUSED
ACROSS THE SOUTH, PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY BUT LINGER ISOLATED SHOWERS
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE FASTER THAN IT`S
PREVIOUS RUN AND SOME MEMBERS WITHIN THE 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE SUITE
ARGUE FOR A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A MIDDLE GROUND WILL BE USED
WITH CHANCE POPS DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY KEEP
HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY AND LOWS HIGHER AT NIGHT. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AMPLE SUNSHINE MAY ALLOW MOST AREAS TO GET A TOUCH WARMER THAN WHAT
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES OR WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST. RADIATIONAL
COOLING MONDAY NIGHT IS LIKELY AS WELL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
WITH THE FAVORED REGION JUST INLAND OFF THE NJ COAST AND NW PHL
COULD HAVE A RELATIVITY CHILLY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...SOME MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG EARLY MAINLY AT
KABE AND KTTN, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF KPHL AND
THEREFORE A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED TO KRDG AND KABE. A VCSH WAS
CARRIED ELSEWHERE LATE. LIGHT TO EVEN CALM WINDS, BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY. SOME LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS ENOUGH MIXING
DEVELOPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST, WHICH MAY TEND TO DIMINISH
WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED
WITH ANY CONVECTION AND ALSO AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MVFR
CEILINGS WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, OTHERWISE VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE SOME LOCAL
FOG DEVELOPS LATE AS CLOUDS THIN AND THE WINDS DROP OFF WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.

SATURDAY: MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED TODAY WELL AHEAD OF A SURFACE
FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME, HOWEVER THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT MAINLY THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER THESE COULD WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING OUR MARINE AREA. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FEET RANGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, AND 2 FEET
OR LESS ON DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED
ATTM.

SATURDAY: SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORMS,
OTHERWISE SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 021031
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
631 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, THEN
THIS FRONT WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. ON SATURDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTHEAST FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHILE THE CALENDAR SAYS SEPTEMBER, IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL LIKE
THE HEART OF SUMMER AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME SLIGHT RELIEF THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER SOME. SYNOPTICALLY, HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HELPING TO
PUMP UP THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITHIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE IS
HOWEVER A NOTABLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE IS A SURFACE FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPING GIVEN THE WARM TO HOT AIRMASS. THE EVENTUAL
SURFACE FRONT MAY JUMP INTO THIS TROUGH AS WE WORK OUR WAY INTO THE
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/. THE FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY REVOLVES
AROUND THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND ALSO THE HEAT INDICES.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD, THE MAIN SHORT
WAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
LEAVES BEHIND THE TAIL END OF IT SLIDING INTO OUR AREA. AS A
RESULT, THE LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE INSTABILITY IN PLACE
ALTHOUGH THIS CAN BE AFFECTED BY THE LOWERING DEW POINTS /AT LEAST
SBCAPE/. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW, HOWEVER THE
CORE /50-60 KNOTS/ OF IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST
WHICH IS WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
INDICATED. THAT STRONGER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR WEST AND THIS IS WHAT WE WILL PROBABLY
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT SURVIVES AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD. IN
ADDITION, SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD FIRE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH. AS A RESULT, WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST. WHILE AN ISOLATED CELL COULD FORM THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER
EAST FROM LOCAL CONVERGENCE, MUCH OF THE TIME WILL PROBABLY BE
RAIN-FREE.

REGARDING THE HEAT, THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR BETTER MIXING BEING PRESENT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SOME AND THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THEREFORE THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO EVEN MID 90S
FOR MANY INLAND AREAS. THE MIXING HOWEVER SHOULD LOWER THE SURFACE
DEW POINTS SOME IN THE AFTERNOON, KEEPING THE HEAT INDICES A BIT
LOWER. AS A RESULT, WE ARE EXPECTING THE HEAT INDICES TO REMAIN
UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA INCLUDING THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS, ALTHOUGH THE
WARMER NAM MOS WAS FAVORED FOR SOME AREAS WHICH ALSO GOT US CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED USING THE LAMP/LAV
GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING TO HELP ASSIST WITH
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT TRENDS THUS FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GENERALLY GLANCE OUR
AREA, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING THROUGH. THE MAIN FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET MAX IS FORECAST TO BYPASS OUR AREA TO THE
NORTHWEST. THERE STILL IS SOME INCREASE IN THE FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING TAKES PLACE. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR LOOKS LOW AND
THEREFORE STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE WEAK AND POTENTIALLY EVEN
DISAPPEAR AS THE EVENING WEARS ON.

THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRONGER
CORES ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND TOWARDS THE DELMARVA, HOWEVER
GIVEN THE BEST FORCING AND SHEAR MISSING OUR AREA THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW AS OF NOW. THEREFORE, NO ENHANCED WORDING
WAS CARRIED ATTM. WE USED CHC POPS THIS EVENING THEN THESE LOWER
FROM WEST TO EAST. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PLUME OF PW AROUND 2 INCHES SURGING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT, THEREFORE ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
BRIEF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ANY FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED
HOWEVER.

THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT
DESPITE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. AS THE CLOUDS THIN OUT SOME
SURFACE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE, HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS LOOK TO
REMAIN ON THE MUGGY SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME LOWERING SHOULD
START TO TAKE PLACE THOUGH LATE MAINLY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP PARTICULARLY WHERE DRY AIR ADVECTION
IS DELAYED. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF FOG, AND GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE WE HELD OFF INCLUDING A MENTION ATTM.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, AN EVEN BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM WAS MAINLY
USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: DRY WITH FEW CLOUDS, FLOW TURNING
GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. THINK THE 00Z GFS IS TO QUICK
SHOWING SOME RETURN FLOW POPS. MUGGY AND HOT AS WELL BUT TEMPS WILL
BE UNDER HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. FAIR SHOT AT 90 THU/FRI FOR PHL.
WENT AT OR A TOUCH ABOVE MET/MAV GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES BASED ON
THE 925/850 MB TEMPERATURE PROFILES.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE A TRIGGER FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE AS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 925 MB TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO
BE A TOUCH HIGHER THAN THU/FRI INDICATING SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES COULD POSSIBLY MAKING A RUN AT THE LOW
PERHAPS MID 90`S BASED ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS INCREASE. WENT
WARMER THAN WPC/MEX GUIDANCE IN THESE PERIODS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN TERMS OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A
MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG) WILL BE
PRESENT WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER THE LACK OF
SHEAR IN PLACE WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. CONTINUED THUNDER IN GRIDS FOR SAT-SAT
NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE 00Z ECMWF
AND CMC SLOW THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES FOCUSED
ACROSS THE SOUTH, PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY BUT LINGER ISOLATED SHOWERS
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE FASTER THAN IT`S
PREVIOUS RUN AND SOME MEMBERS WITHIN THE 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE SUITE
ARGUE FOR A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A MIDDLE GROUND WILL BE USED
WITH CHANCE POPS DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY KEEP
HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY AND LOWS HIGHER AT NIGHT. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AMPLE SUNSHINE MAY ALLOW MOST AREAS TO GET A TOUCH WARMER THAN WHAT
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES OR WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST. RADIATIONAL
COOLING MONDAY NIGHT IS LIKELY AS WELL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
WITH THE FAVORED REGION JUST INLAND OFF THE NJ COAST AND NW PHL
COULD HAVE A RELATIVITY CHILLY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...SOME MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG EARLY MAINLY AT
KABE AND KTTN, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF KPHL AND
THEREFORE A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED TO KRDG AND KABE. A VCSH WAS
CARRIED ELSEWHERE LATE. LIGHT TO EVEN CALM WINDS, BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY. SOME LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS ENOUGH MIXING
DEVELOPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST, WHICH MAY TEND TO DIMINISH
WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED
WITH ANY CONVECTION AND ALSO AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MVFR
CEILINGS WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, OTHERWISE VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE SOME LOCAL
FOG DEVELOPS LATE AS CLOUDS THIN AND THE WINDS DROP OFF WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.

SATURDAY: MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED TODAY WELL AHEAD OF A SURFACE
FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME, HOWEVER THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT MAINLY THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER THESE COULD WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING OUR MARINE AREA. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FEET RANGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, AND 2 FEET
OR LESS ON DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED
ATTM.

SATURDAY: SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORMS,
OTHERWISE SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 020735
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
335 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL WASH OUT OVER THE REGION
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. ON
SATURDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTHEAST FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHILE THE CALENDAR SAYS SEPTEMBER, IT WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL LIKE
THE HEART OF SUMMER AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME SLIGHT RELIEF THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER SOME. SYNOPTICALLY, HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HELPING TO
PUMP UP THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITHIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE IS
HOWEVER A NOTABLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE IS A SURFACE FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE, HOWEVER IT WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY. THERE SHOULD BE A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPING GIVEN THE WARM TO HOT AIRMASS. THE EVENTUAL
SURFACE FRONT MAY JUMP INTO THIS TROUGH AS WE WORK OUR WAY INTO THE
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/. THE FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR TODAY REVOLVES
AROUND THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND ALSO THE HEAT INDICES.

A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE VERY EARLY THIS MORNING HELPED TO SUSTAIN SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER DELMARVA INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY,
HOWEVER THESE HAVE GENERALLY DISSIPATED. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD, THE MAIN SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO OUR
NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LEAVES BEHIND THE TAIL END OF IT
SLIDING INTO OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, THE LARGE SCALE FORCING SHOULD
SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL HOWEVER BE
INSTABILITY IN PLACE ALTHOUGH THIS CAN BE AFFECTED BY THE LOWERING
DEW POINTS /AT LEAST SBCAPE/. THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN THE MID
LEVEL FLOW, HOWEVER THE CORE /50-60 KNOTS/ OF IT IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST WHICH IS WHERE THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS INDICATED. THAT STRONGER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WELL TO OUR WEST AND THIS IS WHAT WE WILL
PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE WHAT SURVIVES AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD.
IN ADDITION, SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY COULD FIRE ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH. AS A RESULT, WE SLOWED DOWN THE POP INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST. WHILE AN ISOLATED CELL COULD FORM THIS AFTERNOON FARTHER EAST
FROM LOCAL CONVERGENCE, MUCH OF THE TIME WILL PROBABLY BE RAIN-FREE.

REGARDING THE HEAT, THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR BETTER MIXING BEING PRESENT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS SOME AND THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. THEREFORE THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO EVEN MID 90S
FOR MANY INLAND AREAS. THE MIXING HOWEVER SHOULD LOWER THE SURFACE
DEW POINTS SOME IN THE AFTERNOON, KEEPING THE HEAT INDICES A BIT
LOWER. AS A RESULT, WE ARE EXPECTING THE HEAT INDICES TO REMAIN
UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA INCLUDING THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS, ALTHOUGH THE
WARMER NAM MOS WAS FAVORED FOR SOME AREAS WHICH ALSO GOT US CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED USING THE LAMP/LAV
GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING TO HELP ASSIST WITH
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT TRENDS THUS FAR.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GENERALLY GLANCE OUR
AREA, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEEPING THROUGH. THE MAIN FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL JET MAX IS FORECAST TO BYPASS OUR AREA TO THE
NORTHWEST. THERE STILL IS SOME INCREASE IN THE FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS THE TAIL END OF THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT SOME CONVECTION THIS EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING TAKES PLACE. THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR LOOKS LOW AND
THEREFORE STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD BE WEAK AND POTENTIALLY EVEN
DISAPPEAR AS THE EVENING WEARS ON.

THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRONGER
CORES ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND TOWARDS THE DELMARVA, HOWEVER
GIVEN THE BEST FORCING AND SHEAR MISSING OUR AREA THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT LOOKS RATHER LOW AS OF NOW. THEREFORE, NO ENHANCED WORDING
WAS CARRIED ATTM. WE USED CHC POPS THIS EVENING THEN THESE LOWER
FROM WEST TO EAST. ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD BE DONE AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A PLUME OF PW AROUND 2 INCHES SURGING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT, THEREFORE ANY CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
BRIEF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. ANY FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED
HOWEVER.

THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT
DESPITE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. AS THE CLOUDS THIN OUT SOME
SURFACE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE, HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS LOOK TO
REMAIN ON THE MUGGY SIDE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SOME LOWERING SHOULD
START TO TAKE PLACE THOUGH LATE MAINLY OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP PARTICULARLY WHERE DRY AIR ADVECTION
IS DELAYED. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF FOG, AND GIVEN LOWER
CONFIDENCE WE HELD OFF INCLUDING A MENTION ATTM.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, AN EVEN BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM WAS MAINLY
USED.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: DRY WITH FEW CLOUDS, FLOW TURNING
GRADUALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. THINK THE 00Z GFS IS TO QUICK
SHOWING SOME RETURN FLOW POPS. MUGGY AND HOT AS WELL BUT TEMPS WILL
BE UNDER HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. FAIR SHOT AT 90 THU/FRI FOR PHL.
WENT AT OR A TOUCH ABOVE MET/MAV GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES BASED ON
THE 925/850 MB TEMPERATURE PROFILES.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE A TRIGGER FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE AS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 925 MB TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO
BE A TOUCH HIGHER THAN THU/FRI INDICATING SLIGHTLY WARMER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES COULD POSSIBLY MAKING A RUN AT THE LOW
PERHAPS MID 90`S BASED ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS INCREASE. WENT
WARMER THAN WPC/MEX GUIDANCE IN THESE PERIODS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN TERMS OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. A
MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG) WILL BE
PRESENT WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER THE LACK OF
SHEAR IN PLACE WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. CONTINUED THUNDER IN GRIDS FOR SAT-SAT
NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00Z GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE CLEARING THE FRONT DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE 00Z ECMWF
AND CMC SLOW THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER CHANCES FOCUSED
ACROSS THE SOUTH, PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY BUT LINGER ISOLATED SHOWERS
INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE FASTER THAN IT`S
PREVIOUS RUN AND SOME MEMBERS WITHIN THE 18Z GFS ENSEMBLE SUITE
ARGUE FOR A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A MIDDLE GROUND WILL BE USED
WITH CHANCE POPS DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY KEEP
HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY AND LOWS HIGHER AT NIGHT. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AMPLE SUNSHINE MAY ALLOW MOST AREAS TO GET A TOUCH WARMER THAN WHAT
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES OR WPC GUIDANCE SUGGEST. RADIATIONAL
COOLING MONDAY NIGHT IS LIKELY AS WELL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
WITH THE FAVORED REGION JUST INLAND OFF THE NJ COAST AND NW PHL
COULD HAVE A RELATIVITY CHILLY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...LOCAL MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG EARLY,
OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF KPHL AND THEREFORE A VCSH WAS CARRIED AT
KRDG AND KABE, THEN THIS WAS SHIFTED EASTWARD TOWARD EVENING. A
TEMPO GROUP MAY BE ADDED ESPECIALLY FOR KABE AND KRDG WITH THE 12Z
TAF ISSUANCE. LIGHT AND MOSTLY VARIABLE WINDS TO START, BECOMING
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS. SOME LOCAL GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AS ENOUGH MIXING DEVELOPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST, WHICH MAY TEND TO DIMINISH
WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENT. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED
WITH ANY CONVECTION AND ALSO AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MVFR
CEILINGS WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, OTHERWISE VFR. THERE IS A CHANCE SOME LOCAL
FOG DEVELOPS LATE AS CLOUDS THIN AND THE WINDS DROP OFF WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR

SATURDAY: MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED TODAY WELL AHEAD OF A SURFACE
FRONT. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SOME, HOWEVER THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT MAINLY THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER THESE COULD WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING OUR MARINE AREA. SEAS
WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FEET RANGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, AND 2 FEET
OR LESS ON DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED
ATTM.

SATURDAY: SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM THUNDERSTORMS,
OTHERWISE SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE








000
FXUS61 KPHI 020315
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1115 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE
WEST EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE STALLING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
REGION BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. DESPITE A LACK OF
ANY ORGANIZED FORCING, SOME SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE MOVING
TOWARD OUR WESTERN ZONES. THESE ARE ISOLATED, AND APPEAR TO BE
TIED TO A SUBTLE WAA PUSH IN COMBINATION WITH LINGERING
INSTABILITY. THE AIRMASS IS BUOYANT OWING TO THE MUGGY AND WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER AND THEREFORE IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO POP A FEW
SHOWERS. OUR CONFIDENCE LOWERS WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENT, THEREFORE
DID NOT BRING THE SLIGHT CHC POPS TO FAR EAST ATTM. WE WILL
MONITOR RADAR TRENDS IN THE EVENT AN EXPANSION TO THE LOW POPS IS
NEEDED. OVERALL, ANY SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE RATHER ISOLATED
AND BRIEF.

OTHERWISE, SOME CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LABOR DAY...BUT THE
AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH 850MB TEMPS A DEGREES OR TWO
HIGHER. THUS AFTN MAX TEMPS ARE FCST TO REACH 90 OR LOW 90S IN
MANY LOCS...ESP FROM PHL S AND E. SFC DEWPTS ARE FCST TO BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY...BUT APPARENT TEMPS WILL STILL BE UP IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWV TROF WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY...AND THE ASSOCD SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING
INTO NW PA BY AFTN. MOS GUIDANCE PLUS MODEL UVV/QPF SUGGESTS THAT
THE BULK OF THE FRONTAL PRECIP/CNVTN WILL NOT REACH ERN PA UNTIL
AFTER 00Z WED. HWVR...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PRE-FRONTAL TROF CONVTN
SO HAVE INCLUDED SLGT-CHC TO CHC POPS INCREASING FROM W TO E FOR
TMRW AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS SHOWED A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE
LATEST RUN, NOW WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN SE PA BY LATE
EVENING, THE COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE RATHER
LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT, INSTABILITY SHOULD BE BE MINIMAL. ALSO,
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION RESULTING IN LIMITED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
THUS...DESPITE THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OUR WEST,
THINK THE SEVERE THREAT WITHIN OUR REGION WILL BE MINIMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THOUGH THERE WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR
ADVECTION, ALBEIT SHORT LIVED. THUS, WHILE HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL, IT WILL FEEL A BIT MORE PLEASANT WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR AIR TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF SHORE FRIDAY,
THE REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE LOW LEVEL MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE SATURDAY...THOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT. AN ADDED COMPLICATION IS THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT STALLING, EITHER OVER OUR REGION OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH IT STALLS,
THE REGION COULD BE UNDER MOIST ON SHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR IN GENERAL. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, BECOMING CALM AT
SEVERAL TERMINALS. PATCHY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK, HOWEVER THIS COULD BE DISRUPTED AT TIMES WITH SOME
CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. WITH SUCH A MUGGY AIRMASS IN PLACE,
TEMPORARY IFR POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING AT THE
FOG-PRONE TERMINALS SUCH AS KRDG/KMIV/KABE IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER PERSISTS LONG ENOUGH. AN ISOLATED SHOWER AROUND MAINLY WEST OF
KPHL.

TUESDAY, S-SW WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA DELAYED UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY TUE
WITH ARRIVAL OF FRONT NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUE NGT. THIS FAR OUT,
INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR SHRA IN THE 00Z TAFS STARTING AFTER
20Z FOR ONLY THE WESTERN TERMINALS /KRDG AND KABE/.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS AND AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT POSSIBLE
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...IFR CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AROUND THE SUMMERTIME BERMUDA WITH AT 10 TO 15 KT OR SO. SEAS WILL
BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE IN THE AFTN TUE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THE COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON/KLEIN
MARINE...AMC/JOHNSON/KLEIN





000
FXUS61 KPHI 020315
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1115 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE
WEST EARLY SATURDAY, BEFORE STALLING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR
REGION BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. DESPITE A LACK OF
ANY ORGANIZED FORCING, SOME SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE MOVING
TOWARD OUR WESTERN ZONES. THESE ARE ISOLATED, AND APPEAR TO BE
TIED TO A SUBTLE WAA PUSH IN COMBINATION WITH LINGERING
INSTABILITY. THE AIRMASS IS BUOYANT OWING TO THE MUGGY AND WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER AND THEREFORE IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO POP A FEW
SHOWERS. OUR CONFIDENCE LOWERS WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENT, THEREFORE
DID NOT BRING THE SLIGHT CHC POPS TO FAR EAST ATTM. WE WILL
MONITOR RADAR TRENDS IN THE EVENT AN EXPANSION TO THE LOW POPS IS
NEEDED. OVERALL, ANY SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE RATHER ISOLATED
AND BRIEF.

OTHERWISE, SOME CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LABOR DAY...BUT THE
AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH 850MB TEMPS A DEGREES OR TWO
HIGHER. THUS AFTN MAX TEMPS ARE FCST TO REACH 90 OR LOW 90S IN
MANY LOCS...ESP FROM PHL S AND E. SFC DEWPTS ARE FCST TO BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY...BUT APPARENT TEMPS WILL STILL BE UP IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWV TROF WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY...AND THE ASSOCD SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING
INTO NW PA BY AFTN. MOS GUIDANCE PLUS MODEL UVV/QPF SUGGESTS THAT
THE BULK OF THE FRONTAL PRECIP/CNVTN WILL NOT REACH ERN PA UNTIL
AFTER 00Z WED. HWVR...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PRE-FRONTAL TROF CONVTN
SO HAVE INCLUDED SLGT-CHC TO CHC POPS INCREASING FROM W TO E FOR
TMRW AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS SHOWED A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE
LATEST RUN, NOW WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN SE PA BY LATE
EVENING, THE COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE RATHER
LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT, INSTABILITY SHOULD BE BE MINIMAL. ALSO,
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION RESULTING IN LIMITED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
THUS...DESPITE THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OUR WEST,
THINK THE SEVERE THREAT WITHIN OUR REGION WILL BE MINIMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THOUGH THERE WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR
ADVECTION, ALBEIT SHORT LIVED. THUS, WHILE HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL, IT WILL FEEL A BIT MORE PLEASANT WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR AIR TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF SHORE FRIDAY,
THE REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE LOW LEVEL MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE SATURDAY...THOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT. AN ADDED COMPLICATION IS THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT STALLING, EITHER OVER OUR REGION OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH IT STALLS,
THE REGION COULD BE UNDER MOIST ON SHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR IN GENERAL. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, BECOMING CALM AT
SEVERAL TERMINALS. PATCHY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK, HOWEVER THIS COULD BE DISRUPTED AT TIMES WITH SOME
CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. WITH SUCH A MUGGY AIRMASS IN PLACE,
TEMPORARY IFR POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING AT THE
FOG-PRONE TERMINALS SUCH AS KRDG/KMIV/KABE IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER PERSISTS LONG ENOUGH. AN ISOLATED SHOWER AROUND MAINLY WEST OF
KPHL.

TUESDAY, S-SW WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA DELAYED UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY TUE
WITH ARRIVAL OF FRONT NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUE NGT. THIS FAR OUT,
INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR SHRA IN THE 00Z TAFS STARTING AFTER
20Z FOR ONLY THE WESTERN TERMINALS /KRDG AND KABE/.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS AND AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT POSSIBLE
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...IFR CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AROUND THE SUMMERTIME BERMUDA WITH AT 10 TO 15 KT OR SO. SEAS WILL
BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE IN THE AFTN TUE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THE COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON/KLEIN
MARINE...AMC/JOHNSON/KLEIN






000
FXUS61 KPHI 020111
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
911 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
IT MAY BE THE FIRST NIGHT OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN, BUT IT CERTAINLY
FEELS MORE LIKE SUMMER WITH DEWPOINTS LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS TONIGHT ARE A RESULT OF THE S-SWLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S IN NE PA AND NW NJ TO THE MID 70S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL
AREAS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAWN.

00Z OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS FROM SPC SHOWS ABOUT 1500-2000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE STILL RESIDING IN THE MID ATLANTIC. DESPITE THE INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE PRESENT, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST AFTER SUNSET
WAS MINIMAL ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ORGANIZED LIFT.
THERE WAS A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ENTERING CHESTER/BERKS
COUNTY, A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE OF DE AND THAT`S ABOUT IT.
EXPECT THIS LEFTOVER ACTIVITY TO GENERALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NONETHELESS, AN ISOLATED SHOWER
CAN STILL NOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS JUICY AIRMASS BUT POPS ARE AROUND
10 PERCENT AND PRECLUDE A MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LABOR DAY...BUT THE
AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH 850MB TEMPS A DEGREES OR TWO
HIGHER. THUS AFTN MAX TEMPS ARE FCST TO REACH 90 OR LOW 90S IN
MANY LOCS...ESP FROM PHL S AND E. SFC DEWPTS ARE FCST TO BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY...BUT APPARENT TEMPS WILL STILL BE UP IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWV TROF WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY...AND THE ASSOCD SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING
INTO NW PA BY AFTN. MOS GUIDANCE PLUS MODEL UVV/QPF SUGGESTS THAT
THE BULK OF THE FRONTAL PRECIP/CNVTN WILL NOT REACH ERN PA UNTIL
AFTER 00Z WED. HWVR...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PRE-FRONTAL TROF CONVTN
SO HAVE INCLUDED SLGT-CHC TO CHC POPS INCREASING FROM W TO E FOR
TMRW AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS SHOWED A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE
LATEST RUN, NOW WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN SE PA BY LATE
EVENING, THE COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE RATHER
LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT, INSTABILITY SHOULD BE BE MINIMAL. ALSO,
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION RESULTING IN LIMITED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
THUS...DESPITE THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OUR WEST,
THINK THE SEVERE THREAT WITHIN OUR REGION WILL BE MINIMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THOUGH THERE WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR
ADVECTION, ALBEIT SHORT LIVED. THUS, WHILE HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL, IT WILL FEEL A BIT MORE PLEASANT WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR AIR TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF SHORE FRIDAY,
THE REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE LOW LEVEL MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE SATURDAY...THOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT. AN ADDED COMPLICATION IS THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT STALLING, EITHER OVER OUR REGION OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH IT STALLS,
THE REGION COULD BE UNDER MOIST ON SHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVE. SWLY WIND UNDER 10 KT THIS EVE, NEARLY CALM
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 08-12Z. LATEST
GUIDANCE USED FOR THE 00Z TAFS DID NOT PROVIDE OVERWHELMING SUPPORT
FOR VSBYS RESTRICTIONS LOWER THAN MVFR. HOWEVER, WITH SUCH A MUGGY
AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPORARY IFR POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY
MORNING AT THE FOG-PRONE TERMINALS SUCH AS RDG/MIV/ABE IF BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER PERSIST LONG ENOUGH.

S-SW WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA DELAYED UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY TUE WITH
ARRIVAL OF FRONT NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUE NGT. THIS FAR OUT, INCLUDED
A PROB30 GROUP FOR SHRA IN THE 00Z TAFS STARTING AFTER 20Z FOR
ONLY THE WESTERN TERMINALS (RDG/ABE).

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS AND AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT POSSIBLE
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...IFR CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AROUND THE SUMMERTIME BERMUDA WITH AT 10 TO 15 KT OR SO. SEAS WILL
BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE IN THE AFTN TUE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THE COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON/KLEIN
MARINE...AMC/JOHNSON/KLEIN







000
FXUS61 KPHI 020111
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
911 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
IT MAY BE THE FIRST NIGHT OF METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN, BUT IT CERTAINLY
FEELS MORE LIKE SUMMER WITH DEWPOINTS LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. THE MUGGY CONDITIONS TONIGHT ARE A RESULT OF THE S-SWLY
RETURN FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE. MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S IN NE PA AND NW NJ TO THE MID 70S IN THE URBAN AND COASTAL
AREAS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAWN.

00Z OBJECTIVE MESOANALYSIS FROM SPC SHOWS ABOUT 1500-2000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE STILL RESIDING IN THE MID ATLANTIC. DESPITE THE INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE PRESENT, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST AFTER SUNSET
WAS MINIMAL ACROSS THE CWA DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ORGANIZED LIFT.
THERE WAS A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ENTERING CHESTER/BERKS
COUNTY, A FEW SHOWERS JUST OFFSHORE OF DE AND THAT`S ABOUT IT.
EXPECT THIS LEFTOVER ACTIVITY TO GENERALLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. NONETHELESS, AN ISOLATED SHOWER
CAN STILL NOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS JUICY AIRMASS BUT POPS ARE AROUND
10 PERCENT AND PRECLUDE A MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE WX GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LABOR DAY...BUT THE
AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH 850MB TEMPS A DEGREES OR TWO
HIGHER. THUS AFTN MAX TEMPS ARE FCST TO REACH 90 OR LOW 90S IN
MANY LOCS...ESP FROM PHL S AND E. SFC DEWPTS ARE FCST TO BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY...BUT APPARENT TEMPS WILL STILL BE UP IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWV TROF WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY...AND THE ASSOCD SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING
INTO NW PA BY AFTN. MOS GUIDANCE PLUS MODEL UVV/QPF SUGGESTS THAT
THE BULK OF THE FRONTAL PRECIP/CNVTN WILL NOT REACH ERN PA UNTIL
AFTER 00Z WED. HWVR...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PRE-FRONTAL TROF CONVTN
SO HAVE INCLUDED SLGT-CHC TO CHC POPS INCREASING FROM W TO E FOR
TMRW AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS SHOWED A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE
LATEST RUN, NOW WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN SE PA BY LATE
EVENING, THE COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE RATHER
LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT, INSTABILITY SHOULD BE BE MINIMAL. ALSO,
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION RESULTING IN LIMITED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
THUS...DESPITE THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OUR WEST,
THINK THE SEVERE THREAT WITHIN OUR REGION WILL BE MINIMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THOUGH THERE WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR
ADVECTION, ALBEIT SHORT LIVED. THUS, WHILE HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL, IT WILL FEEL A BIT MORE PLEASANT WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR AIR TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF SHORE FRIDAY,
THE REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE LOW LEVEL MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE SATURDAY...THOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT. AN ADDED COMPLICATION IS THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT STALLING, EITHER OVER OUR REGION OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH IT STALLS,
THE REGION COULD BE UNDER MOIST ON SHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVE. SWLY WIND UNDER 10 KT THIS EVE, NEARLY CALM
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 08-12Z. LATEST
GUIDANCE USED FOR THE 00Z TAFS DID NOT PROVIDE OVERWHELMING SUPPORT
FOR VSBYS RESTRICTIONS LOWER THAN MVFR. HOWEVER, WITH SUCH A MUGGY
AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPORARY IFR POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY
MORNING AT THE FOG-PRONE TERMINALS SUCH AS RDG/MIV/ABE IF BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER PERSIST LONG ENOUGH.

S-SW WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA DELAYED UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY TUE WITH
ARRIVAL OF FRONT NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUE NGT. THIS FAR OUT, INCLUDED
A PROB30 GROUP FOR SHRA IN THE 00Z TAFS STARTING AFTER 20Z FOR
ONLY THE WESTERN TERMINALS (RDG/ABE).

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS AND AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT POSSIBLE
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...IFR CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AROUND THE SUMMERTIME BERMUDA WITH AT 10 TO 15 KT OR SO. SEAS WILL
BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE IN THE AFTN TUE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THE COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON/KLEIN
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON/KLEIN
MARINE...AMC/JOHNSON/KLEIN








000
FXUS61 KPHI 011945
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW, LEADING TO
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER WITH DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 70S THE
APPARENT TEMPS ARE WELL INTO THE 90S...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IN THE POCONOS AND NW NJ. WITH AFTN HEATING THE AMS HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LI/S AROUND -5 TO -7 AND SFC-BASED CAPE
1500 TO 3000 J/KG. THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR SEEMS TO BE INVOF CHES BAY
AND DELMARVA. SOME SCT TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED BUT THEY SEEM TO BE
LOCALLY FORCED E.G. BY LAND/WATER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HAVE KEPT
CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR THIS AFTN/EVE BUT ADJUSTED TO MAKE SMWHAT
HIGHER POPS S OF PHL.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT TSTMS TO DIE OFF WITH A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET
AS THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ANY LARGER SCALE FORCING INVOLVED ATTM.
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS IF SOME MORE ORGANIZED QLCS MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST BUT THAT DOESN`T SEEM LIKELY NOW. OTRW...EXPECT A MILD/MUGGY
NIGHT WITH LOWS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND SOME PATCHY FOG LIKELY
DVLPG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT THE
AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH 850MB TEMPS A DEGREES OR TWO
HIGHER. THUS AFTN MAX TEMPS ARE FCST TO REACH 90 OR LOW 90S IN MANY
LOCS...ESP FROM PHL S AND E. SFC DEWPTS ARE FCST TO BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN TODAY...BUT APPARENT TEMPS WILL STILL BE UP IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S.

A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWV TROF WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY...AND THE ASSOCD SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING
INTO NW PA BY AFTN. MOS GUIDANCE PLUS MODEL UVV/QPF SUGGESTS THAT
THE BULK OF THE FRONTAL PRECIP/CNVTN WILL NOT REACH ERN PA UNTIL
AFTER 00Z WED. HWVR...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PRE-FRONTAL TROF CONVTN
SO HAVE INCLUDED SLGT-CHC TO CHC POPS INCREASING FROM W TO E FOR
TMRW AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS SHOWED A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE
LATEST RUN, NOW WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN SE PA BY LATE
EVENING, THE COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE RATHER
LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT, INSTABILITY SHOULD BE BE MINIMAL. ALSO,
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION RESULTING IN LIMITED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
THUS...DESPITE THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OUR WEST,
THINK THE SEVERE THREAT WITHIN OUR REGION WILL BE MINIMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THOUGH THERE WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR
ADVECTION, ALBEIT SHORT LIVED. THUS, WHILE HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL, IT WILL FEEL A BIT MORE PLEASANT WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR AIR TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF SHORE FRIDAY,
THE REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE LOW LEVEL MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE SATURDAY...THOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT. AN ADDED COMPLICATION IS THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT STALLING, EITHER OVER OUR REGION OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH IT STALLS,
THE REGION COULD BE UNDER MOIST ON SHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
EXCEPTIONS ARE LOCALLY MVFR/IFR CONDS IF A HEAVY SHOWER OR T-STORM
HAPPENS TO MOVE OVER ONE OF THE TAF SITES. SO FAR THE CNVTN HAS BEEN
RATHER WIDELY SCT BUT IT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND TAF AMENDED
AS NECESSARY. ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AND COULD PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE
TMRW. WINDS WILL BE SW 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN...DECREASING TO 5 KT OR
LESS TONIGHT...THEN PICKING UP A LITTLE STRONGER ON TUES WITH A
SMWHT TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL TROF.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS AND AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT POSSIBLE
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...IFR CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AROUND THE SUMMERTIME BERMUDA WITH AT 10 TO 15 KT OR SO. SEAS WILL
BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. CONDS COULD BE
LOCALLY ROUGHER IN WIDELY SCT AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THE COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON
MARINE...AMC/JOHNSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 011945
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW, LEADING TO
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER WITH DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 70S THE
APPARENT TEMPS ARE WELL INTO THE 90S...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IN THE POCONOS AND NW NJ. WITH AFTN HEATING THE AMS HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH LI/S AROUND -5 TO -7 AND SFC-BASED CAPE
1500 TO 3000 J/KG. THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR SEEMS TO BE INVOF CHES BAY
AND DELMARVA. SOME SCT TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED BUT THEY SEEM TO BE
LOCALLY FORCED E.G. BY LAND/WATER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. HAVE KEPT
CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR THIS AFTN/EVE BUT ADJUSTED TO MAKE SMWHAT
HIGHER POPS S OF PHL.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT TSTMS TO DIE OFF WITH A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNSET
AS THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ANY LARGER SCALE FORCING INVOLVED ATTM.
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS IF SOME MORE ORGANIZED QLCS MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST BUT THAT DOESN`T SEEM LIKELY NOW. OTRW...EXPECT A MILD/MUGGY
NIGHT WITH LOWS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND SOME PATCHY FOG LIKELY
DVLPG AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT THE
AIRMASS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH 850MB TEMPS A DEGREES OR TWO
HIGHER. THUS AFTN MAX TEMPS ARE FCST TO REACH 90 OR LOW 90S IN MANY
LOCS...ESP FROM PHL S AND E. SFC DEWPTS ARE FCST TO BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN TODAY...BUT APPARENT TEMPS WILL STILL BE UP IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S.

A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWV TROF WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST ON TUESDAY...AND THE ASSOCD SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING
INTO NW PA BY AFTN. MOS GUIDANCE PLUS MODEL UVV/QPF SUGGESTS THAT
THE BULK OF THE FRONTAL PRECIP/CNVTN WILL NOT REACH ERN PA UNTIL
AFTER 00Z WED. HWVR...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PRE-FRONTAL TROF CONVTN
SO HAVE INCLUDED SLGT-CHC TO CHC POPS INCREASING FROM W TO E FOR
TMRW AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GFS SHOWED A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE
LATEST RUN, NOW WITH THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN SE PA BY LATE
EVENING, THE COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE RATHER
LATE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT, INSTABILITY SHOULD BE BE MINIMAL. ALSO,
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION RESULTING IN LIMITED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
THUS...DESPITE THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TO OUR WEST,
THINK THE SEVERE THREAT WITHIN OUR REGION WILL BE MINIMAL.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THOUGH THERE WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR
ADVECTION, ALBEIT SHORT LIVED. THUS, WHILE HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL, IT WILL FEEL A BIT MORE PLEASANT WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR AIR TEMPERATURES.

FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF SHORE FRIDAY,
THE REGION WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE LOW LEVEL MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE SATURDAY...THOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT. AN ADDED COMPLICATION IS THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE FRONT STALLING, EITHER OVER OUR REGION OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH IT STALLS,
THE REGION COULD BE UNDER MOIST ON SHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
EXCEPTIONS ARE LOCALLY MVFR/IFR CONDS IF A HEAVY SHOWER OR T-STORM
HAPPENS TO MOVE OVER ONE OF THE TAF SITES. SO FAR THE CNVTN HAS BEEN
RATHER WIDELY SCT BUT IT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND TAF AMENDED
AS NECESSARY. ALSO...SOME PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AND COULD PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE
TMRW. WINDS WILL BE SW 5 TO 10 KT THIS AFTN...DECREASING TO 5 KT OR
LESS TONIGHT...THEN PICKING UP A LITTLE STRONGER ON TUES WITH A
SMWHT TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL TROF.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS AND AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT POSSIBLE
WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST...IFR CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AROUND THE SUMMERTIME BERMUDA WITH AT 10 TO 15 KT OR SO. SEAS WILL
BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. CONDS COULD BE
LOCALLY ROUGHER IN WIDELY SCT AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THE COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON
MARINE...AMC/JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 011555
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1155 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING REMAINS UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT...
ALTHO SFC WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK. THE AIR MASS IS VERY WARM AND
MOIST AND HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
HEATING LOOKS BEST GENERALLY S OF PHL WHERE MORE CLEARING IS NOTED
ON VSBL SAT LOOP. CONSIDERABLE MID-LVL CLOUDINESS CONTS TO THE N.
PWATS REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES AS INDICATED BOTH BY MORNING RAOBS AND
THE BLENDED TPW SAT IMAGERY.

FCST MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTN MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S APPEAR
TO BE ON TRACK. HWVR...DEWPTS IN THE LOW OR EVEN MID 70S WILL
RAISE THE APPARENT TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND ADD CONSIDERABLY
TO DISCOMFORT OUTSIDE. DOESNT FEEL MUCH LIKE THE BEGINNING OF
METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN.

IN SPITE OF THE HEAT, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...THERE DOESN`T
SEEM TO BE MUCH ORGANIZED FORCING FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTN. A WEAK
SHRTWV APPEARS TO BE MOVING BY IN THE SW FLOW BUT IT MAY BE TOO
FAR ALONG ALREADY TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT. WITH THESE CONDS...EXPECT
JUST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP HERE AND THERE THIS AFTN.
SOME HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING BETTER CHANCES FOR
TSTMS OVER DELMARVA AND FAR S NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT A BIT WESTWARD, THE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MAY START TO TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THERE ARE SOME SHORT WAVES STILL EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW, THE STRONGER ONES APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH
PERHAPS EVEN SOME NVA OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

AS A RESULT, ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY WANES AND ANY APPRECIABLE
FORCING EXITS THE AREA. WE SHOULD THEN THIN OUT THE CLOUDINESS,
WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN SOME FOG. AT THIS POINT, WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TOWARD
MORNING. THE WESTERN ZONES COULD HAVE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
OVERALL ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE. A WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG...SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S,
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE EVEN HIGHER GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOVER IN THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THE CONTINUING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY, AS WILL BE THE POPS, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL INDICATE A COLD FRONT ARRIVING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, THEN CROSSING THE COASTAL WATERS BY MORNING.
WHILE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WON`T BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER,
THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER, SO THE AIR WILL BEGIN TO FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF AND WITH THE FRONT, HOWEVER WITH A ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER-
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR...AS EARLIER FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE NOW
LIFTED. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY
FROM MIDDAY ON, HOWEVER THESE MAY TEND TO BE SCATTERED. AS A
RESULT, WE INDICATED LIGHT SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER MENTIONED FOR
NOW. LIGHT SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED, AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START, HOWEVER THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS TENDING TO THIN OUT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 5 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR EAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE LESS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE SEAS UP SOME. THESE HAVE
APPROACHED 5 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING TOWARD 20NM, HOWEVER OVERALL
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS. AS A RESULT, THE CONDITIONS
WERE KEPT BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND TODAY AND THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER THESE MAY BE MORE EVIDENT ACROSS THE LAND AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 011555
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1155 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING REMAINS UNDER W/SW FLOW ALOFT...
ALTHO SFC WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK. THE AIR MASS IS VERY WARM AND
MOIST AND HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
HEATING LOOKS BEST GENERALLY S OF PHL WHERE MORE CLEARING IS NOTED
ON VSBL SAT LOOP. CONSIDERABLE MID-LVL CLOUDINESS CONTS TO THE N.
PWATS REMAIN OVER 2 INCHES AS INDICATED BOTH BY MORNING RAOBS AND
THE BLENDED TPW SAT IMAGERY.

FCST MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTN MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S APPEAR
TO BE ON TRACK. HWVR...DEWPTS IN THE LOW OR EVEN MID 70S WILL
RAISE THE APPARENT TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES AND ADD CONSIDERABLY
TO DISCOMFORT OUTSIDE. DOESNT FEEL MUCH LIKE THE BEGINNING OF
METEOROLOGICAL AUTUMN.

IN SPITE OF THE HEAT, MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...THERE DOESN`T
SEEM TO BE MUCH ORGANIZED FORCING FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTN. A WEAK
SHRTWV APPEARS TO BE MOVING BY IN THE SW FLOW BUT IT MAY BE TOO
FAR ALONG ALREADY TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT. WITH THESE CONDS...EXPECT
JUST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP HERE AND THERE THIS AFTN.
SOME HIGHER RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING BETTER CHANCES FOR
TSTMS OVER DELMARVA AND FAR S NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT A BIT WESTWARD, THE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MAY START TO TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THERE ARE SOME SHORT WAVES STILL EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW, THE STRONGER ONES APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH
PERHAPS EVEN SOME NVA OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

AS A RESULT, ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY WANES AND ANY APPRECIABLE
FORCING EXITS THE AREA. WE SHOULD THEN THIN OUT THE CLOUDINESS,
WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN SOME FOG. AT THIS POINT, WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TOWARD
MORNING. THE WESTERN ZONES COULD HAVE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
OVERALL ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE. A WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG...SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S,
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE EVEN HIGHER GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOVER IN THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THE CONTINUING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY, AS WILL BE THE POPS, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL INDICATE A COLD FRONT ARRIVING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, THEN CROSSING THE COASTAL WATERS BY MORNING.
WHILE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WON`T BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER,
THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER, SO THE AIR WILL BEGIN TO FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF AND WITH THE FRONT, HOWEVER WITH A ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER-
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR...AS EARLIER FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE NOW
LIFTED. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY
FROM MIDDAY ON, HOWEVER THESE MAY TEND TO BE SCATTERED. AS A
RESULT, WE INDICATED LIGHT SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER MENTIONED FOR
NOW. LIGHT SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED, AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START, HOWEVER THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS TENDING TO THIN OUT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 5 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR EAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE LESS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE SEAS UP SOME. THESE HAVE
APPROACHED 5 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING TOWARD 20NM, HOWEVER OVERALL
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS. AS A RESULT, THE CONDITIONS
WERE KEPT BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND TODAY AND THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER THESE MAY BE MORE EVIDENT ACROSS THE LAND AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 011021
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
621 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS PARKED TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER WARM AND
HUMID FLOW OF AIR ACROSS OUR AREA. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FEATURES SOME ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 10Z SHOWS A SHORT WAVE NEAR WEST
VIRGINIA, WITH SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF IT. THE
POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD SOME EARLY THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MARYLAND AND DELAWARE AS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDER IS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE THE
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES ARE TENDING TO SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD WITH
TIME THIS AFTERNOON, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THEM IN COMBINATION WITH A RATHER BUOYANT AIRMASS ALREADY IN
PLACE.

THE DAY SHOULD START OUT WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AT VARYING
LEVELS. ANY LOWER BASES SHOULD LIFT SOME WITH HEATING AND SOME
MIXING, HOWEVER OWING TO THE RATHER MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT
THIS WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CLOUDS. IT IS NOT REAL
CLEAR WHAT WILL ACTUALLY FOCUS THE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES IN ADDITION TO
AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR, ADDITIONAL HEATING
WILL RESULT IN MORE INSTABILITY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW HOWEVER IS
FORECAST TO BE LESS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND THIS WILL TEND TO
KEEP THE SHEAR AND THEREFORE STORM ORGANIZATION ON THE LOWER SIDE.
DESPITE THIS, ENOUGH FOCUS COULD OCCUR TO PERHAPS GET SOME SHORT
LINES OR A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE DAY.
WHERE THIS OCCURS, IF IT DOES, CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER
PERHAPS THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ONE GOES ACROSS THE CWA BASED
ON THE SHEARING SHORT WAVE ENERGY. SINCE THE OVERALL COVERAGE IS A
BIT UNCERTAIN, WE CARRIED CHC POPS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND STARTED THE THUNDER MENTION MAINLY AT NOON.
OVERALL, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING TODAY TO BE A WASHOUT AND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY.

THE PW VALUES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES TODAY,
THEREFORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FOR A BRIEF TIME SHOULD OCCUR. IF
CONVECTIVE CORES CAN BE ROBUST ENOUGH AND PULSE THEN WATER LOADED
DOWNDRAFTS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED/BRIEF GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
BUT THEN ADJUSTED THESE UP SOME MAINLY INLAND. THIS IS A RATHER WARM
AIRMASS AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEATING CAN CAUSE HIGHER TEMPERATURES /AS
WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY FOR MANY LOCALES/.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT A BIT WESTWARD, THE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MAY START TO TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THERE ARE SOME SHORT WAVES STILL EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW, THE STRONGER ONES APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH
PERHAPS EVEN SOME NVA OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

AS A RESULT, ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY WANES AND ANY APPRECIABLE
FORCING EXITS THE AREA. WE SHOULD THEN THIN OUT THE CLOUDINESS,
WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN SOME FOG. AT THIS POINT, WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TOWARD
MORNING. THE WESTERN ZONES COULD HAVE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
OVERALL ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE. A WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...AFTER SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG...SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S,
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE EVEN HIGHER GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOVER IN THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THE CONTINUING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY, AS WILL BE THE POPS, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL INDICATE A COLD FRONT ARRIVING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, THEN CROSSING THE COASTAL WATERS BY MORNING.
WHILE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WON`T BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER,
THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER, SO THE AIR WILL BEGIN TO FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF AND WITH THE FRONT, HOWEVER WITH A ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER-
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...LOCAL AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY, OTHERWISE MOSTLY
VFR. IT APPEARS THAT FOG EARLY WILL BE LOCALIZED. SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY FROM MIDDAY ON,
HOWEVER THESE MAY TEND TO BE SCATTERED. AS A RESULT, WE INDICATED
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER MENTIONED FOR NOW. THIS WILL BE
REVISITED LATER THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START, HOWEVER THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS TENDING TO THIN OUT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 5 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR EAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE LESS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE SEAS UP SOME. THESE HAVE
APPROACHED 5 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING TOWARD 20NM, HOWEVER OVERALL
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS. AS A RESULT, THE CONDITIONS
WERE KEPT BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND TODAY AND THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER THESE MAY BE MORE EVIDENT ACROSS THE LAND AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 010746
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS PARKED TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER WARM AND
HUMID FLOW OF AIR ACROSS OUR AREA. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FEATURES SOME ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES. ONE MORE NOTABLE SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING, WHICH HAS BEEN DRIVING THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. WHILE THE
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES ARE TENDING TO SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME,
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THEM IN COMBINATION WITH
A RATHER BUOYANT AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE.

THE DAY SHOULD START OUT WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AT VARYING
LEVELS. THE LOWER BASES SHOULD LIFT SOME WITH HEATING AND SOME
MIXING, HOWEVER OWING TO THE RATHER MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT THIS
WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CLOUDS. IT IS NOT ALL THAT
CLEAR WHAT WILL ACTUALLY FOCUS THE CONVECTION, HOWEVER DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES IN ADDITION TO AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS COULD GO EARLY IN
THE DAY AS WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WHERE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR, ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN MORE
INSTABILITY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO BE LESS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP THE SHEAR AND
THEREFORE STORM ORGANIZATION ON THE LOWER SIDE. DESPITE THIS, ENOUGH
FOCUS COULD OCCUR TO PERHAPS GET SOME SHORT LINES OR SMALL CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE DAY. WHERE THIS OCCURS IF IT DOES
CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER PERHAPS THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
ONE GOES ACROSS THE CWA BASED ON THE SHEARING SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
SINCE THE OVERALL COVERAGE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, WE CARRIED CHC POPS
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION AND STARTED THE THUNDER MENTION AT
NOON. OVERALL, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING TODAY TO BE A WASHOUT.

THE PW VALUES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES TODAY,
THEREFORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FOR A BRIEF TIME SHOULD OCCUR. IF
CONVECTIVE CORES CAN BE ROBUST ENOUGH AND PULSE THEN WATER LOADED
DOWNDRAFTS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED/BRIEF GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
BUT THEN ADJUSTED THESE UP SOME MAINLY INLAND. THIS IS A RATHER WARM
AIRMASS AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEATING CAN CAUSE HIGHER TEMPERATURES /AS
WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY FOR MANY LOCALES/.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT A BIT WESTWARD, THE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MAY START TO TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THERE ARE SOME SHORT WAVES STILL EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW, THE STRONGER ONES APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH
PERHAPS EVEN SOME NVA OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

AS A RESULT, ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY WANES AND ANY APPRECIABLE
FORCING EXITS THE AREA. WE SHOULD THEN THIN OUT THE CLOUDINESS,
WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN SOME FOG. AT THIS POINT, WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TOWARD
MORNING. THE WESTERN ZONES COULD HAVE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
OVERALL ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE. A WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...AFTER SOME PATHCY MORNING FOG...SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S,
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE EVEN HIGHER GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOVER IN THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THE CONTINUING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY, AS WILL BE THE POPS, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL INDICATE A COLD FRONT ARRIVING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, THEN CROSSING THE COASTAL WATERS BY MORNING.
WHILE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WON`T BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER,
THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER, SO THE AIR WILL BEGIN TO FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF AND WITH THE FRONT, HOWEVER WITH A ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER-
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...LOCAL AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY, OTHERWISE MOSTLY
VFR. IT APPEARS THAT FOG EARLY WILL BE PATCHY. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY FROM MIDDAY ON, HOWEVER
THESE MAY TEND TO BE SCATTERED. AS A RESULT, WE INDICATED LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER MENTIONED FOR NOW. THIS WILL BE REVISITED
THROUGH THE MORNING. LIGHT WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START, HOWEVER THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS TENDING TO THIN OUT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 5 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR EAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE LESS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE SEAS UP SOME. THESE HAVE
APPROACHED 5 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING TOWARD 20NM, HOWEVER OVERALL
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS. AS A RESULT, THE CONDITIONS
WERE KEPT BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND TODAY AND THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER THESE MAY BE MORE EVIDENT ACROSS THE LAND AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 010746
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE STALLING TO OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS PARKED TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ALONG
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER WARM AND
HUMID FLOW OF AIR ACROSS OUR AREA. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FEATURES SOME ADDITIONAL SHORT
WAVES. ONE MORE NOTABLE SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING, WHICH HAS BEEN DRIVING THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES. WHILE THE
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES ARE TENDING TO SHEAR NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME,
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THEM IN COMBINATION WITH
A RATHER BUOYANT AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE.

THE DAY SHOULD START OUT WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AT VARYING
LEVELS. THE LOWER BASES SHOULD LIFT SOME WITH HEATING AND SOME
MIXING, HOWEVER OWING TO THE RATHER MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT THIS
WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE CLOUDS. IT IS NOT ALL THAT
CLEAR WHAT WILL ACTUALLY FOCUS THE CONVECTION, HOWEVER DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARIES IN ADDITION TO AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THIS COULD GO EARLY IN
THE DAY AS WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN PLACE. WHERE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR, ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN MORE
INSTABILITY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO BE LESS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP THE SHEAR AND
THEREFORE STORM ORGANIZATION ON THE LOWER SIDE. DESPITE THIS, ENOUGH
FOCUS COULD OCCUR TO PERHAPS GET SOME SHORT LINES OR SMALL CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE DAY. WHERE THIS OCCURS IF IT DOES
CARRIES LOWER CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER PERHAPS THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
ONE GOES ACROSS THE CWA BASED ON THE SHEARING SHORT WAVE ENERGY.
SINCE THE OVERALL COVERAGE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN, WE CARRIED CHC POPS
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION AND STARTED THE THUNDER MENTION AT
NOON. OVERALL, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING TODAY TO BE A WASHOUT.

THE PW VALUES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE NEAR 2 INCHES TODAY,
THEREFORE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FOR A BRIEF TIME SHOULD OCCUR. IF
CONVECTIVE CORES CAN BE ROBUST ENOUGH AND PULSE THEN WATER LOADED
DOWNDRAFTS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED/BRIEF GUSTY SURFACE WINDS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
BUT THEN ADJUSTED THESE UP SOME MAINLY INLAND. THIS IS A RATHER WARM
AIRMASS AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEATING CAN CAUSE HIGHER TEMPERATURES /AS
WHAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY FOR MANY LOCALES/.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT A BIT WESTWARD, THE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC MAY START TO TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THERE ARE SOME SHORT WAVES STILL EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW, THE STRONGER ONES APPEAR TO HAVE SHIFTED EAST WITH
PERHAPS EVEN SOME NVA OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

AS A RESULT, ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE
DURING THE EVENING AS THE INSTABILITY WANES AND ANY APPRECIABLE
FORCING EXITS THE AREA. WE SHOULD THEN THIN OUT THE CLOUDINESS,
WHICH COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN SOME FOG. AT THIS POINT, WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TOWARD
MORNING. THE WESTERN ZONES COULD HAVE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
OVERALL ALTHOUGH SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE. A WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY...AFTER SOME PATHCY MORNING FOG...SKIES SHOULD BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S,
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE EVEN HIGHER GIVEN DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOVER IN THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THE CONTINUING
SOUTHWEST FLOW. CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE IN THE
DAY, AS WILL BE THE POPS, AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL INDICATE A COLD FRONT ARRIVING
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, THEN CROSSING THE COASTAL WATERS BY MORNING.
WHILE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT WON`T BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER,
THE DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWER, SO THE AIR WILL BEGIN TO FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF AND WITH THE FRONT, HOWEVER WITH A ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED IN THE
MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER-
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...LOCAL AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS EARLY, OTHERWISE MOSTLY
VFR. IT APPEARS THAT FOG EARLY WILL BE PATCHY. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY FROM MIDDAY ON, HOWEVER
THESE MAY TEND TO BE SCATTERED. AS A RESULT, WE INDICATED LIGHT
SHOWERS WITH NO THUNDER MENTIONED FOR NOW. THIS WILL BE REVISITED
THROUGH THE MORNING. LIGHT WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO START, HOWEVER THESE
SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS TENDING TO THIN OUT. THERE SHOULD BE SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN LOCAL MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 5 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR EVEN CALM.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO OUR EAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OF WARM AND HUMID AIR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE THE
FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE LESS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE SEAS UP SOME. THESE HAVE
APPROACHED 5 FEET EARLY THIS MORNING TOWARD 20NM, HOWEVER OVERALL
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS. AS A RESULT, THE CONDITIONS
WERE KEPT BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND TODAY AND THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER THESE MAY BE MORE EVIDENT ACROSS THE LAND AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 010323
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1123 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A TRAILING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE DELMARVA WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING
FOR AWHILE AS ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS WITHIN A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS. THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH LIGHTNING AS THE INSTABILITY HAS
WANED COMPARED TO EARLIER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF
MARYLAND AND DELAWARE. HOWEVER, DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE HIGH
MOISTURE LADEN AIR IN PLACE /2.2 INCHES OF PW VIA THE 00Z STERLING,
VA RAOB/. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES GIVEN
THE SHORT WAVE TRACK. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST, SOME SHOWERS WILL
STILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA HOWEVER THE
COVERAGE IS LESS CERTAIN AND THEREFORE LOWER POPS WERE MAINTAINED.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEREFORE WHILE SOME FOG CAN FORM IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ATTM. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS
BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH. THE WAVE ALOFT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES IN
ALOFT SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT TRIGGER FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID, ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT
OCCURS COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE CAN BE THE SPARK
NEEDED TO GET CONVECTION GOING. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE AT LEAST 40-50
PERCENT POPS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UPTICKED
THE MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, WE SEE A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW FROM THE LOWER THROUGH UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY...BEFORE MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH THE ZONAL FLOW CAN
KICK IN THOUGH, WE WILL SEE A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND 90S, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH THE MID
AND UPPER 90S IN DELMARVA AND THE I95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING THE FRONT ARRIVING DURING
THIS PERIOD, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT MOSTLY DRIER AIR. STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT,
HOWEVER WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR. LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS AS WE MAY END UP WITH MORE LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FELL. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND EASTWARD. TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF HERE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS. DOWNPOURS WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE LOCAL VISIBILITY FOR A
BRIEF TIME. THE WINDS LESSEN AND MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT MANY
TERMINALS, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WHERE THERE IS A DIRECTION.

MONDAY...ANY STRATUS/FOG MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY FROM
MIDDAY ON, HOWEVER THE LOCATION IS IN QUESTION SO ONLY INCLUDED
-SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BR COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW...AROUND 4 FEET. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT, AND AT LEAST ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE
QUICK ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WHEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, QPF
OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE, HIGHER WITHIN SOME STORMS. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 010323
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1123 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A TRAILING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE DELMARVA WILL KEEP CONVECTION GOING
FOR AWHILE AS ENOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS WITHIN A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS. THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH LIGHTNING AS THE INSTABILITY HAS
WANED COMPARED TO EARLIER, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF
MARYLAND AND DELAWARE. HOWEVER, DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR GIVEN THE HIGH
MOISTURE LADEN AIR IN PLACE /2.2 INCHES OF PW VIA THE 00Z STERLING,
VA RAOB/. THE HIGHEST POPS REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES GIVEN
THE SHORT WAVE TRACK. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST, SOME SHOWERS WILL
STILL OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA HOWEVER THE
COVERAGE IS LESS CERTAIN AND THEREFORE LOWER POPS WERE MAINTAINED.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT, THEREFORE WHILE SOME FOG CAN FORM IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD ATTM. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS
BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH. THE WAVE ALOFT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES IN
ALOFT SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT TRIGGER FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID, ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT
OCCURS COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE CAN BE THE SPARK
NEEDED TO GET CONVECTION GOING. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE AT LEAST 40-50
PERCENT POPS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UPTICKED
THE MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, WE SEE A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW FROM THE LOWER THROUGH UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY...BEFORE MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH THE ZONAL FLOW CAN
KICK IN THOUGH, WE WILL SEE A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND 90S, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH THE MID
AND UPPER 90S IN DELMARVA AND THE I95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING THE FRONT ARRIVING DURING
THIS PERIOD, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT MOSTLY DRIER AIR. STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT,
HOWEVER WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR. LOWER CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIDESPREAD
MVFR CEILINGS AS WE MAY END UP WITH MORE LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FELL. SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FROM THE KPHL METRO ON SOUTH AND EASTWARD. TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF HERE, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS. DOWNPOURS WILL GREATLY REDUCE THE LOCAL VISIBILITY FOR A
BRIEF TIME. THE WINDS LESSEN AND MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT MANY
TERMINALS, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WHERE THERE IS A DIRECTION.

MONDAY...ANY STRATUS/FOG MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY FROM
MIDDAY ON, HOWEVER THE LOCATION IS IN QUESTION SO ONLY INCLUDED
-SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BR COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW...AROUND 4 FEET. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE TONIGHT, AND AT LEAST ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING THE AREA MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE
QUICK ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WHEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, QPF
OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE, HIGHER WITHIN SOME STORMS. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
IN THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 010133
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
933 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA. THE
STRENGTH OF THE STORMS HAS DIMINISHED AS INSTABILITY IS WANING NOW
THAT NIGHT HAS FALLEN. HOWEVER, AS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVES/VORTICITY IMPULSES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FIRST
IS SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NOW, SO THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NEW JERSEY WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE OFF THE COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A SECOND IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT, WHICH COULD HELP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EITHER
CONTINUE OR REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. ONCE
BOTH OF THESE PASS TO OUR EAST BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW, WE SHOULD END
UP WITH A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.

WITH THE PWATS BEING WELL ABOVE NORMAL, ANY OF THE SHOWERS WILL
BE WATER LADEN AND PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING...GOOD THING THE STORM MOTION IS RELATIVELY QUICK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH. THE WAVE ALOFT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES IN
ALOFT SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT TRIGGER FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID, ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT
OCCURS COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE CAN BE THE SPARK
NEEDED TO GET CONVECTION GOING. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE AT LEAST 40-50
PERCENT POPS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UPTICKED
THE MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, WE SEE A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW FROM THE LOWER THROUGH UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY...BEFORE MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH THE ZONAL FLOW CAN
KICK IN THOUGH, WE WILL SEE A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND 90S, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH THE MID
AND UPPER 90S IN DELMARVA AND THE I95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING THE FRONT ARRIVING DURING
THIS PERIOD, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT MOSTLY DRIER AIR. STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT,
HOWEVER WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR MIV/ACY WHERE THEY ARE
ONGOING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOCAL; SO TSRA WERE
CONTINUED IN THE 00Z TAFS. FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES, THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS, SO -SHRA/VCSH WERE
INCLUDED FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

WINDS LIGHTEN AND MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT MANY LOCATIONS, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WHERE THERE IS A
DIRECTION.

NOT ENTIRELY SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS, AS WE MAY END
UP WITH MORE LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY WERE RAIN FELL.
HOWEVER, WE STILL HAVE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIG AND/OR VSBY OVERNIGHT
AND TOWARD DAYBREAK.

TOMORROW...VFR. ANY STRATUS/FOG MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT AT
THIS TIME, LOCATION IS A BIG QUESTION, SO ONLY INCLUDED -SHRA IN
THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BR COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW...AROUND 4 FEET. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NUMEROUS
MID-LEVEL WAVES/TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TAPPING INTO THE
MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, ESPECIALLY IN
CONVECTION. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY POOR
DRAINAGE AND SOME SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WHEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, QPF ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...HIGHER WITHIN SOME STORMS. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPHI 010133
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
933 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA. THE
STRENGTH OF THE STORMS HAS DIMINISHED AS INSTABILITY IS WANING NOW
THAT NIGHT HAS FALLEN. HOWEVER, AS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVES/VORTICITY IMPULSES SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FIRST
IS SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NOW, SO THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF NEW JERSEY WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE OFF THE COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A SECOND IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT, WHICH COULD HELP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EITHER
CONTINUE OR REDEVELOP ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. ONCE
BOTH OF THESE PASS TO OUR EAST BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW, WE SHOULD END
UP WITH A BREAK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.

WITH THE PWATS BEING WELL ABOVE NORMAL, ANY OF THE SHOWERS WILL
BE WATER LADEN AND PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING...GOOD THING THE STORM MOTION IS RELATIVELY QUICK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH. THE WAVE ALOFT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES IN
ALOFT SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT TRIGGER FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID, ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT
OCCURS COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE CAN BE THE SPARK
NEEDED TO GET CONVECTION GOING. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE AT LEAST 40-50
PERCENT POPS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UPTICKED
THE MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, WE SEE A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW FROM THE LOWER THROUGH UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY...BEFORE MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH THE ZONAL FLOW CAN
KICK IN THOUGH, WE WILL SEE A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND 90S, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH THE MID
AND UPPER 90S IN DELMARVA AND THE I95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING THE FRONT ARRIVING DURING
THIS PERIOD, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT MOSTLY DRIER AIR. STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT,
HOWEVER WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR TO MVFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR MIV/ACY WHERE THEY ARE
ONGOING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOCAL; SO TSRA WERE
CONTINUED IN THE 00Z TAFS. FOR THE REST OF THE TAF SITES, THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS, SO -SHRA/VCSH WERE
INCLUDED FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT.

WINDS LIGHTEN AND MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT MANY LOCATIONS, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WHERE THERE IS A
DIRECTION.

NOT ENTIRELY SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS, AS WE MAY END
UP WITH MORE LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY WERE RAIN FELL.
HOWEVER, WE STILL HAVE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIG AND/OR VSBY OVERNIGHT
AND TOWARD DAYBREAK.

TOMORROW...VFR. ANY STRATUS/FOG MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT AT
THIS TIME, LOCATION IS A BIG QUESTION, SO ONLY INCLUDED -SHRA IN
THE AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BR COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW...AROUND 4 FEET. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NUMEROUS
MID-LEVEL WAVES/TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TAPPING INTO THE
MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, ESPECIALLY IN
CONVECTION. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY POOR
DRAINAGE AND SOME SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WHEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, QPF ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...HIGHER WITHIN SOME STORMS. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...HEAVENER





000
FXUS61 KPHI 312010
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST, STRONGER PIECE, IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, TIED TO THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, WHILE THE
SECOND, WEAKER, WAVE IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE WAVE
INTERACTIONS HAVE PRODUCED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON. VERY MOIST AND
WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE THE THREAT
OF THESE STORMS AS THEY PUSH EAST-NORTHEAST. BUOYANCY IS  NOT AN
ISSUE, EVEN WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
BULK SHEAR THAT EXISTS WITHIN THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF OUR CWA...LESS
ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA. IN TERMS OF SEVERE CONVECTION EXPECTED, WE
CONTINUE TO EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS BRINGING DOWN THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT AS PRECIPITATION LOADED CORES DROP. THE MAIN ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF DOVER AS ONE
OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHS SLIDE THROUGH.

LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTION. WE MOVE THE LIKELY POPS TOWARDS THE EAST TO
FOLLOW THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE. WITH THE PWATS BEING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL ANY OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE WATER LADEN AND PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...GOOD THING THE STORM MOTION IS RELATIVELY
QUICK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH. THE WAVE ALOFT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES IN
ALOFT SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT TRIGGER FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID, ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT
OCCURS COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE CAN BE THE SPARK
NEEDED TO GET CONVECTION GOING. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE AT LEAST 40-50
PERCENT POPS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UPTICKED
THE MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, WE SEE A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW FROM THE LOWER THROUGH UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY...BEFORE MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH THE ZONAL FLOW CAN
KICK IN THOUGH, WE WILL SEE A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND 90S, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH THE MID
AND UPPER 90S IN DELMARVA AND THE I95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING THE FRONT ARRIVING DURING
THIS PERIOD, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT MOSTLY DRIER AIR. STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT,
HOWEVER WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH LATE EVENING...VFR. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WILL GENERALLY MOVE TOWARDS THE
EAST-NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPO GROUPS FOR MAIN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE TAFS.

TONIGHT...VFR TO MVFR. WINDS LIGHTEN UP BUT REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHERLY.
COULD BE A WASH-RINSE-REPEAT EVENT TONIGHT WITH WARM MOIST AIR STILL
IN PLACE. NOT ENTIRELY SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS SO THIS
IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW...VFR. ANY STRATUS MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT AT THIS TIME LOCATION
IS A BIG QUESTION.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BR COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW...AROUND 4 FEET. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NUMEROUS
MID-LEVEL WAVES/TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TAPPING INTO THE
MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, ESPECIALLY IN
CONVECTION. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY POOR
DRAINAGE AND SOME SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WHEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, QPF ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...HIGHER WITHIN SOME STORMS. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 312010
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
410 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FIRST, STRONGER PIECE, IS LOCATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, TIED TO THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, WHILE THE
SECOND, WEAKER, WAVE IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE WAVE
INTERACTIONS HAVE PRODUCED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON. VERY MOIST AND
WARM AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE THE THREAT
OF THESE STORMS AS THEY PUSH EAST-NORTHEAST. BUOYANCY IS  NOT AN
ISSUE, EVEN WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
BULK SHEAR THAT EXISTS WITHIN THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF OUR CWA...LESS
ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA. IN TERMS OF SEVERE CONVECTION EXPECTED, WE
CONTINUE TO EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS BRINGING DOWN THE STRONG
WINDS ALOFT AS PRECIPITATION LOADED CORES DROP. THE MAIN ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF DOVER AS ONE
OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHS SLIDE THROUGH.

LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTION. WE MOVE THE LIKELY POPS TOWARDS THE EAST TO
FOLLOW THE PATH OF THIS FEATURE. WITH THE PWATS BEING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL ANY OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE WATER LADEN AND PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED SMALL STREAM AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING...GOOD THING THE STORM MOTION IS RELATIVELY
QUICK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH. THE WAVE ALOFT LOOKS TO GET SHEARED OUT AS IT MOVES IN
ALOFT SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT TRIGGER FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THAT BEING SAID, ANY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THAT
OCCURS COMBINED WITH WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE CAN BE THE SPARK
NEEDED TO GET CONVECTION GOING. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE AT LEAST 40-50
PERCENT POPS FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UPTICKED
THE MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS ANY BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUBSTANTIAL HEATING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD, WE SEE A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW FROM THE LOWER THROUGH UPPER LEVELS.

TUESDAY...BEFORE MUCH DRY AIR ADVECTION WITH THE ZONAL FLOW CAN
KICK IN THOUGH, WE WILL SEE A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND 90S, WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH THE MID
AND UPPER 90S IN DELMARVA AND THE I95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS STILL SHOWING THE FRONT ARRIVING DURING
THIS PERIOD, BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT MOSTLY DRIER AIR. STILL
SOME CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT,
HOWEVER WITH THE ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE, AND MODEST DRY AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT EXPECT A FEW, NICE, SUMMER
LIKE DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE
OVER THE WEEKEND. THOUGH THERE IS SOME QUESTION WITH THE CONTINUED
ZONAL FLOW HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL DIG, BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH LATE EVENING...VFR. AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA WILL GENERALLY MOVE TOWARDS THE
EAST-NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPO GROUPS FOR MAIN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE TAFS.

TONIGHT...VFR TO MVFR. WINDS LIGHTEN UP BUT REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHERLY.
COULD BE A WASH-RINSE-REPEAT EVENT TONIGHT WITH WARM MOIST AIR STILL
IN PLACE. NOT ENTIRELY SURE WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS SO THIS
IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

TOMORROW...VFR. ANY STRATUS MIXES OUT BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT AT THIS TIME LOCATION
IS A BIG QUESTION.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...COVERAGE OF STORMS DECREASES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, IFR VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BR COULD LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD THROUGH TOMORROW...AROUND 4 FEET. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER
TOMORROW THAN TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY EVENING AND AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS IN PLACE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NUMEROUS
MID-LEVEL WAVES/TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TAPPING INTO THE
MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, ESPECIALLY IN
CONVECTION. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY POOR
DRAINAGE AND SOME SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON,
WHEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, QPF ACCUMULATIONS
OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...HIGHER WITHIN SOME STORMS. CURRENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION HAVE BEEN DRY SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN
THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...HEAVENER








000
FXUS61 KPHI 311416
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1016 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED TO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. THE TIMING OF
THE POPS, BASED ON CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR AND DECENT HANDLING BY
THE 10Z HRRR, LOOK GOOD. DID DECREASE SKY COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
BEFORE ANOTHER INCREASE IS EXPECTED UNDER A SELF DESTRUCTING
SKY...LOTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXCEEDING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES. LATEST 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY WEAK MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CAPPING IN PLACE...LESS OF
CAP TO OUR SOUTHWEST BUT SURPRISINGLY ALSO A LITTLE LESS MOISTURE.

ORIGINALLY OUR REGION WAS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, 15 PERCENT PROBABILITY, BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC,
BASED ON HOW BENIGN THE LAPSE RATES AND LESS CAPE THAN EXPECTED,
WE ARE IN SEE TEXT NOW. THIS MEANS THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF WET DOWNBURSTS FROM
PRECIPITATION LOADING, ARE LESS THAN BEFORE BUT NOT ENTIRELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

OTHERWISE, OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE CAUGHT BETWEEN SYSTEMS
TODAY, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL PULL AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE INTO
OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, A MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED.

AS WE STEP FORWARD THROUGH THE DAY, ENOUGH HEATING COMBINED WITH
CLIMBING SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG/ TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST NEAR A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY NEAR A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE WEAK THIS FAR EAST
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS TO OUR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL
INCREASE THE SHEAR WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE MAIN MODE BEING LINE SEGMENTS, IF WE
GET BETTER UPDRAFT GROWTH TO OCCUR. IN ADDITION, THE PW VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES WHICH WILL LEAD TO
DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING, HOWEVER THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT GENERALLY LOOKS LOW AS
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A STORM MOTION.

THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD ALSO
RESULT IN SOME STORMS PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. GIVEN THE
FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC SETUP, SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THIS GENERALLY
LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WE THEREFORE MAINTAINED INCREASING POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH THE WESTERN ZONES GOING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON, AND
WE ALSO ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING. MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES MAY REMAIN DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
THEN ADJUSTED DOWN A LITTLE BIT FOR SOME AREAS WITH THE IDEA OF LOTS
OF CLOUDS PREVAILING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN OUT AS IT
TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL A TRAIL OF SHORT
WAVES ROLLING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH ALSO A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE AREA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED FOR AWHILE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST. A
SOMEWHAT MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE MAY HELP TO FOCUS A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER WHERE THIS IS FOCUSED HAS LESS CERTAINTY
WITH IT ATTM. AS THE PW VALUES REMAIN RATHER HIGH, LOCAL DOWNPOURS
COULD PUT DOWN A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN HOWEVER ANY FLOOD THREAT
LOOKS BRIEF AND LOCALIZED.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SOME STRONG CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN THE EVENING
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE MORE TIED TO ANY
LINE SEGMENTS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WITH PERHAPS SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM WATER LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. OTHERWISE, A WEALTH OF
CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS WAS
GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTION STILL
POSSIBLE MOST AREAS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR MIGHT BE FAVORED. ANY FLOODING
SHOULD BE MORE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WITH A CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THERE`S ENOUGH
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES COULD PEAK OUT IN THE LOW 90S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...CAN BE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT REALLY
WON`T BE TOO MUCH COOLER COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW, BUT IT
WILL BE DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE. HIGHS ALL THREE DAYS WILL BE
PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
BEAUTIFUL EARLY SEPTEMBER WEATHER.

SATURDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CEILINGS BY MIDDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
TIMING WAS INDICATED IN THE TAFS, WITH THUNDER ONLY MENTIONED AT
KABE TO KRDG DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE AS OF NOW. THERE WILL BE
BRIEF TIMES OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS DOWNPOURS ARE ANTICIPATED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASING TO GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION, SOME LIGHT FOG
COULD DEVELOP LATE IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO
SOME MIXING. IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE THERE CAN BE
SOME GUSTINESS ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE, IT GENERALLY LOOKS MARGINAL.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW THE SEAS TO BUILD THROUGH
TONIGHT, HOWEVER GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DIRECTION AND FETCH, WE
KEPT SEAS UP TO 4 FEET. THEREFORE, NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 311416
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1016 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED TO THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME. THE TIMING OF
THE POPS, BASED ON CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR AND DECENT HANDLING BY
THE 10Z HRRR, LOOK GOOD. DID DECREASE SKY COVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
BEFORE ANOTHER INCREASE IS EXPECTED UNDER A SELF DESTRUCTING
SKY...LOTS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND EXCEEDING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES. LATEST 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY WEAK MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CAPPING IN PLACE...LESS OF
CAP TO OUR SOUTHWEST BUT SURPRISINGLY ALSO A LITTLE LESS MOISTURE.

ORIGINALLY OUR REGION WAS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, 15 PERCENT PROBABILITY, BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC,
BASED ON HOW BENIGN THE LAPSE RATES AND LESS CAPE THAN EXPECTED,
WE ARE IN SEE TEXT NOW. THIS MEANS THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF WET DOWNBURSTS FROM
PRECIPITATION LOADING, ARE LESS THAN BEFORE BUT NOT ENTIRELY OUT
OF THE QUESTION.

OTHERWISE, OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE CAUGHT BETWEEN SYSTEMS
TODAY, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL PULL AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE INTO
OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, A MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED.

AS WE STEP FORWARD THROUGH THE DAY, ENOUGH HEATING COMBINED WITH
CLIMBING SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG/ TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST NEAR A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY NEAR A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE WEAK THIS FAR EAST
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS TO OUR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL
INCREASE THE SHEAR WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE MAIN MODE BEING LINE SEGMENTS, IF WE
GET BETTER UPDRAFT GROWTH TO OCCUR. IN ADDITION, THE PW VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES WHICH WILL LEAD TO
DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING, HOWEVER THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT GENERALLY LOOKS LOW AS
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A STORM MOTION.

THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD ALSO
RESULT IN SOME STORMS PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. GIVEN THE
FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC SETUP, SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THIS GENERALLY
LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WE THEREFORE MAINTAINED INCREASING POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH THE WESTERN ZONES GOING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON, AND
WE ALSO ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING. MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES MAY REMAIN DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
THEN ADJUSTED DOWN A LITTLE BIT FOR SOME AREAS WITH THE IDEA OF LOTS
OF CLOUDS PREVAILING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN OUT AS IT
TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL A TRAIL OF SHORT
WAVES ROLLING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH ALSO A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE AREA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED FOR AWHILE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST. A
SOMEWHAT MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE MAY HELP TO FOCUS A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER WHERE THIS IS FOCUSED HAS LESS CERTAINTY
WITH IT ATTM. AS THE PW VALUES REMAIN RATHER HIGH, LOCAL DOWNPOURS
COULD PUT DOWN A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN HOWEVER ANY FLOOD THREAT
LOOKS BRIEF AND LOCALIZED.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SOME STRONG CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN THE EVENING
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE MORE TIED TO ANY
LINE SEGMENTS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WITH PERHAPS SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM WATER LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. OTHERWISE, A WEALTH OF
CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS WAS
GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTION STILL
POSSIBLE MOST AREAS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR MIGHT BE FAVORED. ANY FLOODING
SHOULD BE MORE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WITH A CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THERE`S ENOUGH
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES COULD PEAK OUT IN THE LOW 90S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...CAN BE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT REALLY
WON`T BE TOO MUCH COOLER COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW, BUT IT
WILL BE DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE. HIGHS ALL THREE DAYS WILL BE
PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
BEAUTIFUL EARLY SEPTEMBER WEATHER.

SATURDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CEILINGS BY MIDDAY.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
TIMING WAS INDICATED IN THE TAFS, WITH THUNDER ONLY MENTIONED AT
KABE TO KRDG DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE AS OF NOW. THERE WILL BE
BRIEF TIMES OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS DOWNPOURS ARE ANTICIPATED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
INCREASING TO GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION, SOME LIGHT FOG
COULD DEVELOP LATE IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO
SOME MIXING. IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE THERE CAN BE
SOME GUSTINESS ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE, IT GENERALLY LOOKS MARGINAL.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW THE SEAS TO BUILD THROUGH
TONIGHT, HOWEVER GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DIRECTION AND FETCH, WE
KEPT SEAS UP TO 4 FEET. THEREFORE, NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 311007
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
607 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE CAUGHT BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY, AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH
WILL PULL AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, A
MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED.

THE PRESENCE OF SOME WAA COMBINED WITH THETA-E ADVECTION IS HELPING
TO PRODUCE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS
IN THIS AS THE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASES SOME, HOWEVER IT
WILL ALSO BE FIGHTING AN INVERSION. THE INITIAL WAA AND INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT TO POP
A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN TO NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS SCENARIO WAS LESS CERTAIN AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE THAT
HINTED AT THIS SEEM TO HAVE LOST A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE RUNNING OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE. THE HRRR HAD THE RIGHT IDEA, BUT SO FAR
IT IS OVERDONE WITH THE COVERAGE. THERE WAS HOWEVER A SMALL GROUP
OF SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY BUT THEN DISSIPATED
AS IT MOVED NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EARLY, BUT OTHERWISE THE MAIN POPS WERE DELAYED SOME AND THEN
WERE GRADUALLY EXPANDED AND INCREASED EASTWARD WITH TIME.

AS WE STEP FORWARD THROUGH THE DAY, ENOUGH HEATING COMBINED WITH
CLIMBING SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG/ TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST NEAR A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY NEAR A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE WEAK THIS FAR EAST
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS TO OUR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL
INCREASE THE SHEAR WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE MAIN MODE BEING LINE SEGMENTS. IN
ADDITION, THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING, HOWEVER THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT GENERALLY
LOOKS LOW AS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A STORM MOTION.

THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD ALSO
RESULT IN SOME STORMS PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. GIVEN THE
FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC SETUP, SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THIS GENERALLY
LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WE THEREFORE MAINTAINED INCREASING POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH THE WESTERN ZONES GOING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON, AND
WE ALSO ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING. MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES MAY REMAIN DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
THEN ADJUSTED DOWN A LITTLE BIT FOR SOME AREAS WITH THE IDEA OF LOTS
OF CLOUDS PREVAILING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN OUT AS IT
TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL A TRAIL OF SHORT
WAVES ROLLING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH ALSO A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE AREA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED FOR AWHILE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST. A
SOMEWHAT MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE MAY HELP TO FOCUS A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER WHERE THIS IS FOCUSED HAS LESS CERTAINTY
WITH IT ATTM. AS THE PW VALUES REMAIN RATHER HIGH, LOCAL DOWNPOURS
COULD PUT DOWN A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN HOWEVER ANY FLOOD THREAT
LOOKS BRIEF AND LOCALIZED.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SOME STRONG CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN THE EVENING
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE MORE TIED TO ANY
LINE SEGMENTS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WITH PERHAPS SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM WATER LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. OTHERWISE, A WEALTH OF
CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS WAS
GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTION STILL
POSSIBLE MOST AREAS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR MIGHT BE FAVORED. ANY FLOODING
SHOULD BE MORE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WITH A CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THERE`S ENOUGH
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES COULD PEAK OUT IN THE LOW 90S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...CAN BE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT REALLY
WON`T BE TOO MUCH COOLER COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW, BUT IT
WILL BE DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE. HIGHS ALL THREE DAYS WILL BE
PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
BEAUTIFUL EARLY SEPTEMBER WEATHER.

SATURDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CEILINGS BY MIDDAY.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY FROM NEAR
KABE AND KRDG, OTHERWISE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME TIMING WAS INDICATED IN THE TAFS, WITH THUNDER ONLY
MENTIONED AT KABE TO KRDG DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE AS OF NOW. THIS
WILL BE REVISITED LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE BRIEF TIMES OF
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS DOWNPOURS ARE ANTICIPATED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO
GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION, SOME LIGHT FOG
COULD DEVELOP LATE IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO
SOME MIXING. IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE THERE CAN BE
SOME GUSTINESS ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE, IT GENERALLY LOOKS MARGINAL.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW THE SEAS TO BUILD THROUGH
TONIGHT, HOWEVER GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DIRECTION AND FETCH, WE
KEPT SEAS UP TO 4 FEET. THEREFORE, NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 311007
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
607 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM
THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE CAUGHT BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY, AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH
WILL PULL AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, A
MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED.

THE PRESENCE OF SOME WAA COMBINED WITH THETA-E ADVECTION IS HELPING
TO PRODUCE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS
IN THIS AS THE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASES SOME, HOWEVER IT
WILL ALSO BE FIGHTING AN INVERSION. THE INITIAL WAA AND INCREASE
IN MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT TO POP
A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN TO NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS SCENARIO WAS LESS CERTAIN AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE THAT
HINTED AT THIS SEEM TO HAVE LOST A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE RUNNING OUT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE. THE HRRR HAD THE RIGHT IDEA, BUT SO FAR
IT IS OVERDONE WITH THE COVERAGE. THERE WAS HOWEVER A SMALL GROUP
OF SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY BUT THEN DISSIPATED
AS IT MOVED NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EARLY, BUT OTHERWISE THE MAIN POPS WERE DELAYED SOME AND THEN
WERE GRADUALLY EXPANDED AND INCREASED EASTWARD WITH TIME.

AS WE STEP FORWARD THROUGH THE DAY, ENOUGH HEATING COMBINED WITH
CLIMBING SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG/ TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST NEAR A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY NEAR A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE WEAK THIS FAR EAST
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS TO OUR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL
INCREASE THE SHEAR WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE MAIN MODE BEING LINE SEGMENTS. IN
ADDITION, THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING, HOWEVER THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT GENERALLY
LOOKS LOW AS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A STORM MOTION.

THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD ALSO
RESULT IN SOME STORMS PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. GIVEN THE
FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC SETUP, SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THIS GENERALLY
LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WE THEREFORE MAINTAINED INCREASING POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH THE WESTERN ZONES GOING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON, AND
WE ALSO ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING. MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES MAY REMAIN DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
THEN ADJUSTED DOWN A LITTLE BIT FOR SOME AREAS WITH THE IDEA OF LOTS
OF CLOUDS PREVAILING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN OUT AS IT
TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL A TRAIL OF SHORT
WAVES ROLLING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH ALSO A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE AREA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED FOR AWHILE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST. A
SOMEWHAT MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE MAY HELP TO FOCUS A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER WHERE THIS IS FOCUSED HAS LESS CERTAINTY
WITH IT ATTM. AS THE PW VALUES REMAIN RATHER HIGH, LOCAL DOWNPOURS
COULD PUT DOWN A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN HOWEVER ANY FLOOD THREAT
LOOKS BRIEF AND LOCALIZED.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SOME STRONG CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN THE EVENING
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE MORE TIED TO ANY
LINE SEGMENTS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WITH PERHAPS SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM WATER LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. OTHERWISE, A WEALTH OF
CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS WAS
GENERALLY USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTION STILL
POSSIBLE MOST AREAS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR MIGHT BE FAVORED. ANY FLOODING
SHOULD BE MORE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WITH A CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THERE`S ENOUGH
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES COULD PEAK OUT IN THE LOW 90S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...CAN BE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT REALLY
WON`T BE TOO MUCH COOLER COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW, BUT IT
WILL BE DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE. HIGHS ALL THREE DAYS WILL BE
PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
BEAUTIFUL EARLY SEPTEMBER WEATHER.

SATURDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
CEILINGS BY MIDDAY.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY FROM NEAR
KABE AND KRDG, OTHERWISE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME TIMING WAS INDICATED IN THE TAFS, WITH THUNDER ONLY
MENTIONED AT KABE TO KRDG DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE AS OF NOW. THIS
WILL BE REVISITED LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE BRIEF TIMES OF
MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS DOWNPOURS ARE ANTICIPATED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO
GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION, SOME LIGHT FOG
COULD DEVELOP LATE IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO
SOME MIXING. IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE THERE CAN BE
SOME GUSTINESS ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE, IT GENERALLY LOOKS MARGINAL.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW THE SEAS TO BUILD THROUGH
TONIGHT, HOWEVER GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DIRECTION AND FETCH, WE
KEPT SEAS UP TO 4 FEET. THEREFORE, NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 310739
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS
FRONT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OUR REGION WILL MAINLY BE CAUGHT BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY, AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH
WILL PULL AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, A
MORE HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED.

THE PRESENCE OF SOME WAA COMBINED WITH THETA-E ADVECTION IS HELPING
TO PRODUCE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS
IN THIS AS THE FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE INCREASES SOME, HOWEVER IT
WILL ALSO BE FIGHTING AN INVERSION. THE INITIAL WAA AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT TO POP A
FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN TO NORTHERN
ZONES. THIS SCENARIO IS LESS CERTAIN AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE THAT
WERE HINTING AT THIS SEEM TO HAVE LOST A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE RUNNING
OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE. AS A RESULT WE DELAYED THE SLIGHT CHC
POPS SOME, THEN GRADUALLY EXPAND AND INCREASE THEM EASTWARD WITH
TIME.

AS WE STEP FORWARD THROUGH THE DAY, ENOUGH HEATING COMBINED WITH
CLIMBING SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN ENOUGH INSTABILITY
/MLCAPE UP TO 1500 J/KG/ TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST NEAR A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLY NEAR A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE WEAK THIS FAR EAST
AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS TO OUR NORTH LATE IN THE DAY.
HOWEVER, AN INCREASE IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO NEAR 40 KNOTS WILL
INCREASE THE SHEAR WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION WITH THE MAIN MODE BEING LINE SEGMENTS. IN
ADDITION, THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES
WHICH WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS. THESE DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING, HOWEVER THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT GENERALLY
LOOKS LOW AS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A STORM MOTION.

THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY COULD ALSO
RESULT IN SOME STORMS PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING. GIVEN THE
FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC SETUP, SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THIS GENERALLY
LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WE THEREFORE MAINTAINED INCREASING POPS FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH THE WESTERN ZONES GOING TO LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON, AND
WE ALSO ADDED SOME ENHANCED WORDING. MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES MAY REMAIN DRY FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS
THEN ADJUSTED DOWN A LITTLE BIT FOR SOME AREAS WITH THE IDEA OF LOTS
OF CLOUDS PREVAILING.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DAMPEN OUT AS IT
TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL A TRAIL OF SHORT
WAVES ROLLING UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH ALSO A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING THE AREA. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED FOR AWHILE FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST. A
SOMEWHAT MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE MAY HELP TO FOCUS A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER WHERE THIS IS FOCUSED HAS LESS CERTAINTY
WITH IT ATTM. AS THE PW VALUES REMAIN RATHER HIGH, LOCAL DOWNPOURS
COULD PUT DOWN A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN HOWEVER ANY FLOOD THREAT
LOOKS BRIEF AND LOCALIZED.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SOME STRONG CONVECTION MAY OCCUR IN THE EVENING
WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE MORE TIED TO ANY
LINE SEGMENTS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEMSELVES WITH PERHAPS SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM WATER LOADED DOWNDRAFTS. OTHERWISE, A WEALTH OF
CLOUDS SHOULD BE AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG
WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, AN EVEN BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS MOS WAS
GENERALLY USED.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH CONVECTION STILL
POSSIBLE MOST AREAS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEAR AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR MIGHT BE FAVORED. ANY FLOODING
SHOULD BE MORE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. WITH A CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THERE`S ENOUGH
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES COULD PEAK OUT IN THE LOW 90S.

TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...CAN BE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT REALLY
WON`T BE TOO MUCH COOLER COURTESY OF A MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW, BUT IT
WILL BE DRIER AND MORE COMFORTABLE. HIGHS ALL THREE DAYS WILL BE
PRIMARILY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
BEAUTIFUL EARLY SEPTEMBER WEATHER.

SATURDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS THE DAY WEARS ON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR TO PERHAPS LOCAL IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CEILINGS BY MIDDAY. WHILE SOME LIGHT FOG MAY OCCUR, MOST OF THE
MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN ACTUAL CEILINGS INSTEAD OF VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS PLUS A LIGHT SURFACE WIND IS GENERALLY MAINTAINED
EARLY.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY FROM NEAR
KABE AND KRDG, OTHERWISE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME TIMING WAS INDICATED IN THE TAFS, WITH THUNDER ONLY
MENTIONED AT KABE TO KRDG DUE TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE. THIS MAY BE
EXPANDED EASTWARD WITH THE 12Z ISSUANCE. THERE WILL BE BRIEF TIMES
OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS DOWNPOURS ARE ANTICIPATED. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO
GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS AND BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL
BE TIMES OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION, SOME FOG COULD
DEVELOP LATE IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A DISTURBANCE TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THIS
OCCURS, THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO
SOME MIXING. IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE THERE CAN BE
SOME GUSTINESS ESPECIALLY NEARSHORE, IT GENERALLY LOOKS MARGINAL.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW THE SEAS TO BUILD THROUGH
TONIGHT, HOWEVER GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DIRECTION AND FETCH, WE
KEPT SEAS UP TO 4 FEET. THEREFORE, NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GORSE/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 310344
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM. THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK
CONTINUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES, WITH
SOME CLEARING NOTED FARTHER SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO BANDS OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ABOVE IT. WE DO EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO FILL BACK IN
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTENING CONTINUES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION AS STRONGER WAA TAKES PLACE. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE CLEARING LONGER, HOWEVER GIVEN
THE WAA AND SOME WIND PROBABLY HOLDING ON THE FOG MAY BE LIMITED
WITH MORE OF A STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING.

GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO WORK THERE WAY
INTO THE REGION LATE ON THE NOSE OF THE BETTER WAA. WE DO CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, BUT THE MODELS MAY BE
PICKING UP ON THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL LOW CLOUD
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WITH THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS
THUS FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION OCCURS AS PWATS CLIMB CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH MARK. DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE UPPER-60S, POSSIBLY LOW-70S
DURING THE DAY MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES, UNDER
STRONGER WAA, SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER-80S
THOUGH NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A FACTOR.
WE EXPECT THE MORNING STRATUS TO LIFT AND BURN OFF WITH A STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING. HIGHER
BASED DECKS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

DECENT AMOUNT SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL PWATS HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE GOOD THING ABOUT TOMORROW IS THAT THE FLOW SHOULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORMS MOVING, THE BAD THING IS THAT
WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WE COULD SEE NUMEROUS TOWERS SHOOT UP
TO GIVE US SOME STRONG WET-MICROBURSTS LATER IN THE EVENING. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS PAINT THIS SCENARIO ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES, CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOOD AND SEVERE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT....BIG CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MID WEST NOW
WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, ALL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FILLING AS IT LIFTS, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING, WHICH SHOWED VERY MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WITH MEAN FLOW OF NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KT...STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAST AND AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, WE STILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THUS DON`T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT, CAPE VALUES (BOTH SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED - WHICH MAY BE
MORE REALISTIC FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS) COULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE
500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, BULK SHEAR (MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR) COULD
BE NEAR 30KT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS FOR WINDS, AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL.

LABOR DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION (OR AT
LEAST MORE LIMITED COVERAGE) AS THE 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER. AS IT DOES SO, MEAN FLOW WILL DECREASE, HOWEVER PWAT
VALUES WILL LIKELY ALSO DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
THUS, THINK THE FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN MORE OF A URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE THREAT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AT THIS TIME OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION) SLIDES EAST, AS DOES THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE LATEST RUNS...NOW ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN THROUGH
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG AS FAR
SOUTH AS OUR REGION BEFORE FRONTOLYSIS OCCURS. FOR NOW, HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS, THEN LOWERING TO MVFR LATE. THE CEILINGS
LOOK TO LOCALLY LOWER TO IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK SO WE HAVE INCLUDED
THESE AT SOME TERMINALS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 KNOTS
OR LESS. AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES, SOME LIGHT FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
LATER IN THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE OVERALL TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE IS LESS CERTAIN AT THIS TIME, THEREFORE A GENERIC MENTION
WAS CARRIED FOR NOW. WHERE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR,
BRIEF TIMES OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A MAJORITY OF TOMORROW. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS TO BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TOMORROW. THIS COULD POSE SOME ISSUES AROUND THE INLETS WHERE LARGER
SWELLS, CLOSE TO 5 FEET, AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY
OCCUR...MOSTLY NEARSHORE FOR THE GUSTS. DECIDED THE SETUP WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 310344
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING LATER IN THE WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH OUR AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM. THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK
CONTINUES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES, WITH
SOME CLEARING NOTED FARTHER SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO BANDS OF HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ABOVE IT. WE DO EXPECT THE CLOUD COVER TO FILL BACK IN
OVERNIGHT AS MOISTENING CONTINUES BENEATH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION AS STRONGER WAA TAKES PLACE. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE CLEARING LONGER, HOWEVER GIVEN
THE WAA AND SOME WIND PROBABLY HOLDING ON THE FOG MAY BE LIMITED
WITH MORE OF A STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING.

GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TRYING TO WORK THERE WAY
INTO THE REGION LATE ON THE NOSE OF THE BETTER WAA. WE DO CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES, BUT THE MODELS MAY BE
PICKING UP ON THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND POTENTIAL LOW CLOUD
FORMATION WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QPF.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WITH THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS
THUS FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CONTINUED AIRMASS MODIFICATION OCCURS AS PWATS CLIMB CLOSER TO THE 2
INCH MARK. DEWPOINTS JUMP INTO THE UPPER-60S, POSSIBLY LOW-70S
DURING THE DAY MAKING FOR MUGGY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES, UNDER
STRONGER WAA, SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER-80S
THOUGH NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH THE CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A FACTOR.
WE EXPECT THE MORNING STRATUS TO LIFT AND BURN OFF WITH A STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN OVERHEAD ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MIXING. HIGHER
BASED DECKS ARE EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE THE CATALYST FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.

DECENT AMOUNT SHEAR AND BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL PWATS HEAVY RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY. THE GOOD THING ABOUT TOMORROW IS THAT THE FLOW SHOULD
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORMS MOVING, THE BAD THING IS THAT
WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WE COULD SEE NUMEROUS TOWERS SHOOT UP
TO GIVE US SOME STRONG WET-MICROBURSTS LATER IN THE EVENING. MOST OF
THE MESOSCALE MODELS PAINT THIS SCENARIO ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES, CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THE DEVELOPMENT FOR ANY LOCALIZED FLOOD AND SEVERE ISSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT....BIG CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MID WEST NOW
WILL BE LIFTING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
HOWEVER, ALL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FILLING AS IT LIFTS, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH WHAT WAS OBSERVED WITH THE 12Z SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING, WHICH SHOWED VERY MARGINAL HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR 2 INCHES. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY WITH MEAN FLOW OF NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KT...STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY FAST AND AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, WE STILL HAVE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
THUS DON`T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD ISSUES OUTSIDE OF SOME POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN NUISANCE FLOODING AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE SEVERE
THREAT, CAPE VALUES (BOTH SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED - WHICH MAY BE
MORE REALISTIC FOR THE NIGHT TIME HOURS) COULD BE NEAR OR ABOVE
500 J/KG. AT THE SAME TIME, BULK SHEAR (MOSTLY SPEED SHEAR) COULD
BE NEAR 30KT. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS FOR WINDS, AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR SOME SMALL HAIL.

LABOR DAY...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CONVECTION (OR AT
LEAST MORE LIMITED COVERAGE) AS THE 500MB SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER. AS IT DOES SO, MEAN FLOW WILL DECREASE, HOWEVER PWAT
VALUES WILL LIKELY ALSO DECREASE AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY.
THUS, THINK THE FLOODING THREAT WILL REMAIN MORE OF A URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE THREAT.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH (AT THIS TIME OVER THE
GREAT BASIN REGION) SLIDES EAST, AS DOES THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT. GFS AND ECMWF SPED UP THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH THE LATEST RUNS...NOW ARRIVING AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW BY THURSDAY WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN THROUGH
FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROPAGATES EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG AS FAR
SOUTH AS OUR REGION BEFORE FRONTOLYSIS OCCURS. FOR NOW, HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS, THEN LOWERING TO MVFR LATE. THE CEILINGS
LOOK TO LOCALLY LOWER TO IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK SO WE HAVE INCLUDED
THESE AT SOME TERMINALS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 KNOTS
OR LESS. AS THE MOISTURE INCREASES, SOME LIGHT FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
TOWARD MORNING.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
LATER IN THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. THE OVERALL TIMING AND AREAL
COVERAGE IS LESS CERTAIN AT THIS TIME, THEREFORE A GENERIC MENTION
WAS CARRIED FOR NOW. WHERE ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR,
BRIEF TIMES OF MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY ARE ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY IN THE
DAY. STILL A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A MAJORITY OF TOMORROW. SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER A STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT BEGINS TO BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATER
TOMORROW. THIS COULD POSE SOME ISSUES AROUND THE INLETS WHERE LARGER
SWELLS, CLOSE TO 5 FEET, AND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY
OCCUR...MOSTLY NEARSHORE FOR THE GUSTS. DECIDED THE SETUP WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. GUSTIER WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON







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