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000
FXUS61 KPHI 221637
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1137 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH TODAY, THEN MOVE NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE OFF THE NEW
JERSEY COAST TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A QUICK UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME
ESPECIALLY FOR SOME LOCALES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95.
MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN SHOULD SLOW THE RISE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THE POPS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO SHOW A SLOWER INCREASE, ESPECIALLY
FARTHER NORTH.

OTHERWISE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. MEANWHILE, A RIDGE IS SHIFTING OFF THE
EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER REMAINS WEDGED DOWN
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM NEW ENGLAND, ALTHOUGH THIS IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

THE RELENTLESS INVERSION IS PRESENT TODAY WITH CLOUDINESS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. THE MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND AT
FIRST THIS IS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS SAMPLED BY NEARBY 12Z RAOBS.
THE 12Z UPTON RAOB SHOWS MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW,
WHILE THE STERLING ONE INDICATES THE WINDS VEERING MORE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE THE CLOUD MOTIONS CAN BE SEEN DIFFERING ON THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP. THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BELOW THE
INVERSION HAS ALLOWED JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW GRAINS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THIS HAS GENERALLY OCCURRED BELOW THE RADAR BEAMS AND WAS RATHER
LIGHT.

SOME RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY AND
LIFT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. THE TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE
WARMING AND THE DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCH UPWARD. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME SLEET MAY MIX WITH ANY RAIN AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS THE SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY LAYER FOR A TIME WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA. ADDITIONAL PIECES OF
VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO ENHANCED LOW-MID LEVEL LIFT. THE
BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL AREAS AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THOSE AREA. HOWEVER, THE NORTHERN THREE
COUNTIES (CARBON/MONROE, PENNSYLVANIA AND SUSSEX, NEW JERSEY) WILL
LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR. THEREFORE WE EXPECT
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR ACROSS THESE AREAS LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME SLEET AND/OR SNOW MIX
IN AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION, BUT THE MAIN THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FREEZING RAIN. THEREFORE WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
ALL RAIN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY, SO THE ADVISORY WILL END AT 4 AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE A LOW OVER IOWA WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, A RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC. OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AND RELATIVELY MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE INITIAL MID LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LIFT OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND VICINITY AT THAT TIME. THE SECOND MID LEVEL LOW
SHOULD REACH SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
QUEBEC ON THURSDAY, WHEN IT SHOULD PULL ITS TROUGH AXIS OVER OUR
REGION. OUR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
THAT TIME, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
TAPERING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES FOR THAT PERIOD SUGGEST ALL LIQUID
PRECIPITATION.

A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FROM THE EAST TO SOUTH QUADRANT IS FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO
THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME QUITE MILD ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MAXIMUM READINGS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

AS OUR MID WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM EVOLVES, IT WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IT
WILL DRAW IN OUR DIRECTION. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 TO 55 KNOTS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE STRONGEST OF
THE WINDS SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MIXING TO THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER, SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 OR 35 MPH SEEM POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM
IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY ON
CHRISTMAS MORNING SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE RAIN
EVENT AS WELL AS A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
THE MID WEEK EVENT THAN THEY HAD BEEN SHOWING OVER PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS RAINFALL TOTALS MAINLY IN THE 0.75
TO 1.25 INCH RANGE FOR OUR REGION. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE
THOSE AMOUNTS BASED ON ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WITH NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND. WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE TIME BEING WITH THE HOPE THAT THE
MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THEIR SUBSEQUENT
RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR/MVFR CEILINGS, WITH THE LOWEST CEILINGS MAINLY
NORTH OF THE KPHL AREA FOR AWHILE. AS MOISTURE INCREASES, THE
CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LOWER INTO THIS EVENING. SOME RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, WITH AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES SHOULD OCCUR AT TIMES MAINLY DURING THE RAIN.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST 5-8
KNOTS.

TONIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR WITH
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN
LIKELY. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO RETREAT. AS A
COASTAL LOW APPROACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE AND COULD GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS
AROUND 1-2 FEET THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW APPROACHES AND SEAS MAY
BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET IN A DEVELOPING EAST TO SOUTH FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SOUTH WIND BECOMING WEST. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
MAY BE 6 TO 9 FEET.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. LOCALIZED GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. WAVE HEIGHTS ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BE TO 5 TO 7 FEET.

THURSDAY NIGHT...WIND GUSTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL
GRADUALLY BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221637
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1137 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH TODAY, THEN MOVE NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE OFF THE NEW
JERSEY COAST TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A QUICK UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME
ESPECIALLY FOR SOME LOCALES ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95.
MORE CLOUDS MOVING IN SHOULD SLOW THE RISE FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
THE POPS WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO SHOW A SLOWER INCREASE, ESPECIALLY
FARTHER NORTH.

OTHERWISE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. MEANWHILE, A RIDGE IS SHIFTING OFF THE
EAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER REMAINS WEDGED DOWN
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM NEW ENGLAND, ALTHOUGH THIS IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

THE RELENTLESS INVERSION IS PRESENT TODAY WITH CLOUDINESS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. THE MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND AT
FIRST THIS IS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS SAMPLED BY NEARBY 12Z RAOBS.
THE 12Z UPTON RAOB SHOWS MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW,
WHILE THE STERLING ONE INDICATES THE WINDS VEERING MORE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE THE CLOUD MOTIONS CAN BE SEEN DIFFERING ON THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LOOP. THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BELOW THE
INVERSION HAS ALLOWED JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW GRAINS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THIS HAS GENERALLY OCCURRED BELOW THE RADAR BEAMS AND WAS RATHER
LIGHT.

SOME RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY AND
LIFT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. THE TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE
WARMING AND THE DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO INCH UPWARD. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME SLEET MAY MIX WITH ANY RAIN AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS THE SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY LAYER FOR A TIME WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA. ADDITIONAL PIECES OF
VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO ENHANCED LOW-MID LEVEL LIFT. THE
BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL AREAS AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THOSE AREA. HOWEVER, THE NORTHERN THREE
COUNTIES (CARBON/MONROE, PENNSYLVANIA AND SUSSEX, NEW JERSEY) WILL
LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR. THEREFORE WE EXPECT
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR ACROSS THESE AREAS LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME SLEET AND/OR SNOW MIX
IN AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION, BUT THE MAIN THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FREEZING RAIN. THEREFORE WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
ALL RAIN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY, SO THE ADVISORY WILL END AT 4 AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE A LOW OVER IOWA WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, A RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC. OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AND RELATIVELY MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE INITIAL MID LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LIFT OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND VICINITY AT THAT TIME. THE SECOND MID LEVEL LOW
SHOULD REACH SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
QUEBEC ON THURSDAY, WHEN IT SHOULD PULL ITS TROUGH AXIS OVER OUR
REGION. OUR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
THAT TIME, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
TAPERING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES FOR THAT PERIOD SUGGEST ALL LIQUID
PRECIPITATION.

A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FROM THE EAST TO SOUTH QUADRANT IS FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO
THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME QUITE MILD ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MAXIMUM READINGS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

AS OUR MID WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM EVOLVES, IT WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IT
WILL DRAW IN OUR DIRECTION. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 TO 55 KNOTS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE STRONGEST OF
THE WINDS SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MIXING TO THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER, SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 OR 35 MPH SEEM POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM
IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY ON
CHRISTMAS MORNING SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE RAIN
EVENT AS WELL AS A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
THE MID WEEK EVENT THAN THEY HAD BEEN SHOWING OVER PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS RAINFALL TOTALS MAINLY IN THE 0.75
TO 1.25 INCH RANGE FOR OUR REGION. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE
THOSE AMOUNTS BASED ON ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WITH NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND. WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE TIME BEING WITH THE HOPE THAT THE
MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THEIR SUBSEQUENT
RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR/MVFR CEILINGS, WITH THE LOWEST CEILINGS MAINLY
NORTH OF THE KPHL AREA FOR AWHILE. AS MOISTURE INCREASES, THE
CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LOWER INTO THIS EVENING. SOME RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, WITH AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES SHOULD OCCUR AT TIMES MAINLY DURING THE RAIN.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST 5-8
KNOTS.

TONIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR WITH
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN
LIKELY. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO RETREAT. AS A
COASTAL LOW APPROACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE AND COULD GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS
AROUND 1-2 FEET THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW APPROACHES AND SEAS MAY
BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET IN A DEVELOPING EAST TO SOUTH FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SOUTH WIND BECOMING WEST. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
MAY BE 6 TO 9 FEET.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. LOCALIZED GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. WAVE HEIGHTS ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BE TO 5 TO 7 FEET.

THURSDAY NIGHT...WIND GUSTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL
GRADUALLY BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221438
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TODAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN
DISSIPATE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A
WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE NATION. MEANWHILE, A RIDGE IS SHIFTING OFF THE EAST COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER REMAINS WEDGED DOWN INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC FROM NEW ENGLAND, ALTHOUGH THIS IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

THE RELENTLESS INVERSION IS PRESENT TODAY WITH CLOUDINESS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH JUST LIKE YESTERDAY,
AN AREA OF CLEARING DEVELOPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE AREA. THE MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND AT
FIRST THIS IS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS SAMPLED BY NEARBY 12Z RAOBS.
THE 12Z UPTON RAOB SHOWS MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW,
WHILE THE STERLING ONE INDICATES THE WINDS VEERING MORE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE A PORTION OF OUR AREA IS LEFT IN BETWEEN AND
THIS MAY BE HELPING WITH JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
TO CREATE THE LESS CLOUD-FILLED AREA. THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SOME THROUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, AND A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BELOW THE INVERSION HAS ALLOWED JUST ENOUGH LIFT
TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW GRAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEW
JERSEY THIS MORNING. THIS IS GENERALLY OCCURRING BELOW THE RADAR
BEAMS AND IS RATHER LIGHT.

OTHERWISE, SOME RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE
DAY AND LIFT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. THE TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
ARE COLD THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE HAS BEEN LESS CLOUD
COVER, HOWEVER THESE ARE INCREASING NOW. THE DEW POINTS WHILE ON THE
LOW SIDE ARE ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASING SOME ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THEREFORE, FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW AND/OR
SLEET MAY MIX WITH ANY RAIN AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION AS THE
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY LAYER FOR A TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS, AND ALSO SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POPS
SHOWING A LITTLE SLOWER INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE SKY COVER WAS
ADJUSTED BASED ON SATELLITE DATA AND THE LESS CLOUD-FILLED AREA WAS
ATTEMPTED TO BE CAPTURED BETTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA. ADDITIONAL PIECES OF
VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO ENHANCED LOW-MID LEVEL LIFT. THE
BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL AREAS AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THOSE AREA. HOWEVER, THE NORTHERN THREE
COUNTIES (CARBON/MONROE, PENNSYLVANIA AND SUSSEX, NEW JERSEY) WILL
LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR. THEREFORE WE EXPECT
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR ACROSS THESE AREAS LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME SLEET AND/OR SNOW MIX
IN AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION, BUT THE MAIN THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FREEZING RAIN. THEREFORE WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
ALL RAIN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY, SO THE ADVISORY WILL END AT 4 AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE A LOW OVER IOWA WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, A RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC. OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AND RELATIVELY MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE INITIAL MID LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LIFT OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND VICINITY AT THAT TIME. THE SECOND MID LEVEL LOW
SHOULD REACH SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
QUEBEC ON THURSDAY, WHEN IT SHOULD PULL ITS TROUGH AXIS OVER OUR
REGION. OUR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
THAT TIME, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
TAPERING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES FOR THAT PERIOD SUGGEST ALL LIQUID
PRECIPITATION.

A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FROM THE EAST TO SOUTH QUADRANT IS FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO
THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME QUITE MILD ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MAXIMUM READINGS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

AS OUR MID WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM EVOLVES, IT WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IT
WILL DRAW IN OUR DIRECTION. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 TO 55 KNOTS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE STRONGEST OF
THE WINDS SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MIXING TO THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER, SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 OR 35 MPH SEEM POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM
IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY ON
CHRISTMAS MORNING SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE RAIN
EVENT AS WELL AS A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
THE MID WEEK EVENT THAN THEY HAD BEEN SHOWING OVER PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS RAINFALL TOTALS MAINLY IN THE 0.75
TO 1.25 INCH RANGE FOR OUR REGION. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE
THOSE AMOUNTS BASED ON ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WITH NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND. WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE TIME BEING WITH THE HOPE THAT THE
MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THEIR SUBSEQUENT
RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL MAY LIFT NORTH SOME
/SCATTER OUT/, HOWEVER ANY VFR SHOULD LOWER ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME RAIN IS ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH,
WITH AREAS MAINLY FROM KPHL ON SOUTH AND EAST HAVING THE BEST
CHANCE. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES SHOULD OCCUR AT TIMES, MAINLY DURING
THE RAIN. LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST OR
EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR WITH
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN
LIKELY. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO RETREAT. AS A
COASTAL LOW APPROACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE AND COULD GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS
AROUND 1-2 FEET THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW APPROACHES AND SEAS MAY
BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET IN A DEVELOPING EAST TO SOUTH FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SOUTH WIND BECOMING WEST. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
MAY BE 6 TO 9 FEET.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. LOCALIZED GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. WAVE HEIGHTS ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BE TO 5 TO 7 FEET.

THURSDAY NIGHT...WIND GUSTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL
GRADUALLY BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 221438
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TODAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN
DISSIPATE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TUESDAY AND STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A
WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
EARLY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE NATION. MEANWHILE, A RIDGE IS SHIFTING OFF THE EAST COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER REMAINS WEDGED DOWN INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC FROM NEW ENGLAND, ALTHOUGH THIS IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.

THE RELENTLESS INVERSION IS PRESENT TODAY WITH CLOUDINESS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH JUST LIKE YESTERDAY,
AN AREA OF CLEARING DEVELOPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE AREA. THE MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND AT
FIRST THIS IS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS SAMPLED BY NEARBY 12Z RAOBS.
THE 12Z UPTON RAOB SHOWS MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW,
WHILE THE STERLING ONE INDICATES THE WINDS VEERING MORE SOUTH OR
SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE A PORTION OF OUR AREA IS LEFT IN BETWEEN AND
THIS MAY BE HELPING WITH JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
TO CREATE THE LESS CLOUD-FILLED AREA. THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SOME THROUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, AND A
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BELOW THE INVERSION HAS ALLOWED JUST ENOUGH LIFT
TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW GRAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN NEW
JERSEY THIS MORNING. THIS IS GENERALLY OCCURRING BELOW THE RADAR
BEAMS AND IS RATHER LIGHT.

OTHERWISE, SOME RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE
DAY AND LIFT NORTHWARD WITH TIME. THE TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE
ARE COLD THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE HAS BEEN LESS CLOUD
COVER, HOWEVER THESE ARE INCREASING NOW. THE DEW POINTS WHILE ON THE
LOW SIDE ARE ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASING SOME ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH. THEREFORE, FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME LIGHT SNOW AND/OR
SLEET MAY MIX WITH ANY RAIN AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION AS THE
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY LAYER FOR A TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
EVAPORATIVE COOLING.

SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS, AND ALSO SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POPS
SHOWING A LITTLE SLOWER INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE SKY COVER WAS
ADJUSTED BASED ON SATELLITE DATA AND THE LESS CLOUD-FILLED AREA WAS
ATTEMPTED TO BE CAPTURED BETTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA. ADDITIONAL PIECES OF
VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO ENHANCED LOW-MID LEVEL LIFT. THE
BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL AREAS AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THOSE AREA. HOWEVER, THE NORTHERN THREE
COUNTIES (CARBON/MONROE, PENNSYLVANIA AND SUSSEX, NEW JERSEY) WILL
LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR. THEREFORE WE EXPECT
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR ACROSS THESE AREAS LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME SLEET AND/OR SNOW MIX
IN AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION, BUT THE MAIN THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FREEZING RAIN. THEREFORE WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
ALL RAIN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY, SO THE ADVISORY WILL END AT 4 AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE A LOW OVER IOWA WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, A RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC. OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AND RELATIVELY MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE INITIAL MID LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LIFT OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND VICINITY AT THAT TIME. THE SECOND MID LEVEL LOW
SHOULD REACH SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
QUEBEC ON THURSDAY, WHEN IT SHOULD PULL ITS TROUGH AXIS OVER OUR
REGION. OUR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
THAT TIME, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
TAPERING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES FOR THAT PERIOD SUGGEST ALL LIQUID
PRECIPITATION.

A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FROM THE EAST TO SOUTH QUADRANT IS FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO
THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME QUITE MILD ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MAXIMUM READINGS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

AS OUR MID WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM EVOLVES, IT WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IT
WILL DRAW IN OUR DIRECTION. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 TO 55 KNOTS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE STRONGEST OF
THE WINDS SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MIXING TO THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER, SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 OR 35 MPH SEEM POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM
IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY ON
CHRISTMAS MORNING SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE RAIN
EVENT AS WELL AS A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
THE MID WEEK EVENT THAN THEY HAD BEEN SHOWING OVER PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS RAINFALL TOTALS MAINLY IN THE 0.75
TO 1.25 INCH RANGE FOR OUR REGION. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE
THOSE AMOUNTS BASED ON ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WITH NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND. WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE TIME BEING WITH THE HOPE THAT THE
MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THEIR SUBSEQUENT
RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL MAY LIFT NORTH SOME
/SCATTER OUT/, HOWEVER ANY VFR SHOULD LOWER ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME RAIN IS ANTICIPATED LATER TODAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH,
WITH AREAS MAINLY FROM KPHL ON SOUTH AND EAST HAVING THE BEST
CHANCE. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES SHOULD OCCUR AT TIMES, MAINLY DURING
THE RAIN. LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST OR
EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR WITH
LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN
LIKELY. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO RETREAT. AS A
COASTAL LOW APPROACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE AND COULD GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS
AROUND 1-2 FEET THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW APPROACHES AND SEAS MAY
BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET IN A DEVELOPING EAST TO SOUTH FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SOUTH WIND BECOMING WEST. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
MAY BE 6 TO 9 FEET.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. LOCALIZED GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. WAVE HEIGHTS ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BE TO 5 TO 7 FEET.

THURSDAY NIGHT...WIND GUSTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL
GRADUALLY BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 220848
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE
OVER OUR REGION GRADUALLY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD AND IT SHOULD DISSIPATE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND IT IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BEGIN TO
RETREAT THROUGH THE DAY AND LOSE IT`S INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA.
THIS HAS ALLOWED THE STRATOCU CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
AND BUILD SOUTHWARD. WHERE THIS CLOUD DECK IS TEMPERATURES HAVE
REMAINED WARMEST, AND WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR OR ONLY MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED OFF. AS WE GO THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THROUGH MIDDAY, WE EXPECT THE LOW CLOUD DECK TO BEGIN
PULLING NORTHWARD AS THE HIGH RETREATS AND A SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THESE CLOUDS WILL BE REPLACED BY
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COASTAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH. LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW, AND AS SEVERAL PIECES OF
VORTICITY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
LIFT/MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS AS SOON AS LATE MORNING.

WHERE THE PRECIPITATION FALLS DURING THE DAY, IT SHOULD BE ALL
LIQUID RAIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MOST LIKELY. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW AND/OR SLEET MAY MIX WITH ANY RAIN
AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA. ADDITIONAL PIECES OF
VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO ENHANCED LOW-MID LEVEL LIFT. THE
BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL AREAS AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THOSE AREA. HOWEVER, THE NORTHERN THREE
COUNTIES (CARBON/MONROE, PENNSYLVANIA AND SUSSEX, NEW JERSEY) WILL
LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR. THEREFORE WE EXPECT
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR ACROSS THESE AREAS LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME SLEET AND/OR SNOW MIX
IN AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION, BUT THE MAIN THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FREEZING RAIN. THEREFORE WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
ALL RAIN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY, SO THE ADVISORY WILL END AT 4 AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE A LOW OVER IOWA WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, A RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC. OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AND RELATIVELY MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE INITIAL MID LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LIFT OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND VICINITY AT THAT TIME. THE SECOND MID LEVEL LOW
SHOULD REACH SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
QUEBEC ON THURSDAY, WHEN IT SHOULD PULL ITS TROUGH AXIS OVER OUR
REGION. OUR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
THAT TIME, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
TAPERING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES FOR THAT PERIOD SUGGEST ALL LIQUID
PRECIPITATION.

A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FROM THE EAST TO SOUTH QUADRANT IS FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO
THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME QUITE MILD ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MAXIMUM READINGS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

AS OUR MID WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM EVOLVES, IT WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IT
WILL DRAW IN OUR DIRECTION. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 TO 55 KNOTS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE STRONGEST OF
THE WINDS SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MIXING TO THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER, SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 OR 35 MPH SEEM POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM
IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY ON
CHRISTMAS MORNING SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE RAIN
EVENT AS WELL AS A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
THE MID WEEK EVENT THAN THEY HAD BEEN SHOWING OVER PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS RAINFALL TOTALS MAINLY IN THE 0.75
TO 1.25 INCH RANGE FOR OUR REGION. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE
THOSE AMOUNTS BASED ON ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WITH NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND. WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE TIME BEING WITH THE HOPE THAT THE
MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THEIR SUBSEQUENT
RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE
STRATO CUMULUS CLOUD DECK REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DECK MAY
SAG DOWN ACROSS PHL AND RDG THIS MORNING. WE EXPECT THIS CLOUD
DECK TO RETREAT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY AS
ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO THE TAF SITES BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS RAINFALL MOVES INTO THE AREA. AS WE
MOVE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER
TO IFR WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH
ANY WIND DIRECTION IS FROM THE NORTHWEST-NORTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST-EAST DURING THE
DAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN
LIKELY. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO RETREAT. AS A
COASTAL LOW APPROACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE AND COULD GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS
AROUND 1-2 FEET THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW APPROACHES AND SEAS MAY
BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET IN A DEVELOPING EAST TO SOUTH FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SOUTH WIND BECOMING WEST. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
MAY BE 6 TO 9 FEET.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. LOCALIZED GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. WAVE HEIGHTS ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BE TO 5 TO 7 FEET.

THURSDAY NIGHT...WIND GUSTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL
GRADUALLY BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 220848
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE
OVER OUR REGION GRADUALLY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TODAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHWARD AND IT SHOULD DISSIPATE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND IT IS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT EARLY ON
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO OUR AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BEGIN TO
RETREAT THROUGH THE DAY AND LOSE IT`S INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA.
THIS HAS ALLOWED THE STRATOCU CLOUD DECK TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
AND BUILD SOUTHWARD. WHERE THIS CLOUD DECK IS TEMPERATURES HAVE
REMAINED WARMEST, AND WHERE SKIES WERE CLEAR OR ONLY MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED OFF. AS WE GO THROUGH THE
MORNING AND THROUGH MIDDAY, WE EXPECT THE LOW CLOUD DECK TO BEGIN
PULLING NORTHWARD AS THE HIGH RETREATS AND A SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX
LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THESE CLOUDS WILL BE REPLACED BY
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COASTAL LOW TO OUR SOUTH. LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW, AND AS SEVERAL PIECES OF
VORTICITY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
LIFT/MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS AS SOON AS LATE MORNING.

WHERE THE PRECIPITATION FALLS DURING THE DAY, IT SHOULD BE ALL
LIQUID RAIN AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE MOST LIKELY. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT SOME SNOW AND/OR SLEET MAY MIX WITH ANY RAIN
AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE DELAWARE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TOWARD OUR AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW LOW-MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS OUR AREA. ADDITIONAL PIECES OF
VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO ENHANCED LOW-MID LEVEL LIFT. THE
BEST LIFT/MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL AREAS AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THOSE AREA. HOWEVER, THE NORTHERN THREE
COUNTIES (CARBON/MONROE, PENNSYLVANIA AND SUSSEX, NEW JERSEY) WILL
LIKELY TAKE LONGER TO SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR. THEREFORE WE EXPECT
A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR ACROSS THESE AREAS LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME SLEET AND/OR SNOW MIX
IN AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION, BUT THE MAIN THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FREEZING RAIN. THEREFORE WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
ALL RAIN BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY, SO THE ADVISORY WILL END AT 4 AM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE A LOW OVER IOWA WITH
A TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, A RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC. OUR REGION IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AND RELATIVELY MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE INITIAL MID LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LIFT OVER CENTRAL
ONTARIO ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND VICINITY AT THAT TIME. THE SECOND MID LEVEL LOW
SHOULD REACH SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
QUEBEC ON THURSDAY, WHEN IT SHOULD PULL ITS TROUGH AXIS OVER OUR
REGION. OUR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
THAT TIME, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
TAPERING TO RAIN SHOWERS ON THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES FOR THAT PERIOD SUGGEST ALL LIQUID
PRECIPITATION.

A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW FROM THE EAST TO SOUTH QUADRANT IS FORECAST
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO
THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME QUITE MILD ON WEDNESDAY
WITH MAXIMUM READINGS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

AS OUR MID WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM EVOLVES, IT WILL HAVE AMPLE
OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IT
WILL DRAW IN OUR DIRECTION. A LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45 TO 55 KNOTS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE STRONGEST OF
THE WINDS SHOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME MIXING TO THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER, SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 OR 35 MPH SEEM POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM
IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION EARLY ON
CHRISTMAS MORNING SIGNALING THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF THE RAIN
EVENT AS WELL AS A RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
THE MID WEEK EVENT THAN THEY HAD BEEN SHOWING OVER PREVIOUS DAYS.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS RAINFALL TOTALS MAINLY IN THE 0.75
TO 1.25 INCH RANGE FOR OUR REGION. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE
THOSE AMOUNTS BASED ON ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WITH NOT MUCH MORE
THAN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND. WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE TIME BEING WITH THE HOPE THAT THE
MODELS WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THEIR SUBSEQUENT
RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE
STRATO CUMULUS CLOUD DECK REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DECK MAY
SAG DOWN ACROSS PHL AND RDG THIS MORNING. WE EXPECT THIS CLOUD
DECK TO RETREAT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY AS
ADDITIONAL MVFR CIGS SHOULD RETURN TO THE TAF SITES BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS RAINFALL MOVES INTO THE AREA. AS WE
MOVE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WE EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER
TO IFR WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH
ANY WIND DIRECTION IS FROM THE NORTHWEST-NORTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST-EAST DURING THE
DAY AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN
LIKELY. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO RETREAT. AS A
COASTAL LOW APPROACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WINDS
MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE AND COULD GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. SEAS
AROUND 1-2 FEET THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW APPROACHES AND SEAS MAY
BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET IN A DEVELOPING EAST TO SOUTH FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SOUTH WIND BECOMING WEST. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
MAY BE 6 TO 9 FEET.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. LOCALIZED GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. WAVE HEIGHTS ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BE TO 5 TO 7 FEET.

THURSDAY NIGHT...WIND GUSTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL
GRADUALLY BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220237
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
937 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UP ALONG THE
EAST COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE, WITH THE CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE SOUTH, WE`VE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
DELMARVA. WE`VE ALSO ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER (LESS OF IT) DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA. THE EXPECTED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO
WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

WE`VE BEEN WATCHING THE STRATUS, SOUTH OF SUFFOLK COUNTY NY, SPIN
ALL AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEFORE WE LOST DAYLIGHT, THE VISIBLE
SAT PIX SHOWED THIS FEATURE NICELY, EVEN DEPICTING A CENTER "EYE".
LOW RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROF IN THIS AREA. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW. RADAR IS ALSO PICKING UP THE
ROTATION.

THE FEATURE IS BRINGING A SOME PRECIPITATION TO LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT, AND WELL AS NORTHEAST NJ. THIS FEATURE IS MODELED TO
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NJ COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP TO PUSH THE LOWER STRATUS, WHICH MOVED NORTH TODAY, BACK
SOUTHWARD. IT SHOULD ALSO PUSH SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES INTO OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES ADJACENT TO OKX. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO DEPICT
THIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE CENTER OF A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PROGRESS TOWARD THE
EAST COAST THIS EVENING.

SOME HI CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM OF OUR AREA AND IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY A LEADING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE SOUTH TO NORTH LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST VA LATE
TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND EXPAND
NORTHWARD INTO THE DELMARVA BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE AIRMASS ON COLD
SIDE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE INITIALLY DRY SO EXPECT THE
THICKER LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO REMAIN SOUTH OF DELAWARE AND THE
EASTERN SHORE OF MD TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
AND AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. WAA DEVELOPS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IN THIS PATTERN, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NOSING
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS EVEN WITH THE
CENTER OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH RETREATING TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. A CAD SETUP WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR ANCHORED OVER OUR
REGION WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AS IT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY.

THE LATEST 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE QUICKER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP COMPARED TO THE OTHER
OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY INITIALLY, SO
PRECIP MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND AS QUICKLY AS THE NAM INDICATES.
HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR PRECIP TO EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS INITIAL DRY AIR,
ALLOWING THE PRECIP SHIELD TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
CHANCE POPS FIRST ADVERTISED IN THE MORNING FOR THE DELMARVA, MIDDAY
FOR THE SOUTHERN PHILLY SUBURBS AND LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE I-80
CORRIDOR.

PTYPE WILL PREDOMINATELY BE RAIN ON MONDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX (SNOW/SLEET) AWAY FROM THE COAST AT THE ONSET DUE
TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. THERE IS STILL NOT ENOUGH FORECAST
CERTAINTY TO PUBLISH A SNOWFALL MAP, BUT THE SETUP APPEARS LIMITED
FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS EVEN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA. WE
PREFERRED TO USE THE COOLER NAM/ECMWF FOR THERMAL PROFILES IN THIS
CAD SETUP TO DIAGNOSE POTENTIAL PTYPES AND FOR FORECASTING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. A H5 TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE COUNTRY...AND ITS EFFECTS WILL BE FOR CLOUDS AND MOSTLY RAIN
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN WILL COME AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AND MOVES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE NJ/DE COAST TUESDAY. WE HAVE CHC POPS N/W AND
LIKELY POPS S/E WITH THIS FEATURE. ON TUESDAY...THE HIGHER POPS MOVE
TO THE NORTHERN AREAS AS ONSHORE FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE
LOW REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A BREAK IN THE WET PATTERN TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES AND IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE WEST...RESULTING IN A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE HIGH POPS
OFFERED BY WPC...WHICH ARE IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TUE NIGHT THRU
WED NIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WED NGT INTO THU.
IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY 12Z...BUT WE
HAVE LEFT IN A CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS THU MORNING...IN CASE THE
SYSTEM SLOWS UP AT ALL. IT APPEARS THAT THE P-TYPE WILL STILL BE
RAIN...SINCE THE COLDER AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR A
CHANGEOVER.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRIER WEATHER AS A SFC
HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE H5 TROUGH WILL STILL BE TO THE
WEST...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BOTH FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER LOW AND DEVELOPING FRONT MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA SAT
NIGHT INTO NEXT SUNDAY...LOW CHC POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE STRATUS THAT MOVED NORTH TODAY IS DRIFTIN BACK DOWN SOUTH
AGAIN. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE THROUGH TRENTON, HAVE JUST MOVED OVER
KPNE, AND IS HEADING TOWARD KPHL. WILL UPDATE THE TERMINALS TO REFLECT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LEFTOVER OVC STRATOCU CONTINUES TO ERODE LATE THIS AFTN OVER MOST OF
THE TERMINALS. AT 20Z, TTN AND RDG LIE ON THE EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS,
WHICH ARE YIELDING MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 FT. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT AT THESE TWO TERMINALS BY SUNSET AT THE LATEST.

VFR THIS EVE. VFR ANTICIPATED FOR MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH THE 12Z NAM DEVELOPS STRATUS FROM PHL NORTH
AND EAST, RESULTING IN MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS BETWEEN BETWEEN
09-15Z. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE, BUT WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL AS THE MARINE LAYER TRIES TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN
CONCERT WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
OTHERWISE, MID CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING. RAIN IS ALSO FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF ILG/MIV DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING,
PHL/PNE/RDG DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND ABE/TTN LATE IN
THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TUE NIGHT.
TUE NIGHT THRU THU MORNING...OCNL LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG.
THU AFTERNOON THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
TONIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY. SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT DURING
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
TUE/TUE NGT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN..SUB-SCA OVER DEL BAY.
WED THRU FRI...SCA CONDITIONS WITH LOW END GALE GUSTS WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220237
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
937 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UP ALONG THE
EAST COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE, WITH THE CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE SOUTH, WE`VE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
DELMARVA. WE`VE ALSO ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER (LESS OF IT) DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA. THE EXPECTED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO
WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

WE`VE BEEN WATCHING THE STRATUS, SOUTH OF SUFFOLK COUNTY NY, SPIN
ALL AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEFORE WE LOST DAYLIGHT, THE VISIBLE
SAT PIX SHOWED THIS FEATURE NICELY, EVEN DEPICTING A CENTER "EYE".
LOW RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROF IN THIS AREA. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW. RADAR IS ALSO PICKING UP THE
ROTATION.

THE FEATURE IS BRINGING A SOME PRECIPITATION TO LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT, AND WELL AS NORTHEAST NJ. THIS FEATURE IS MODELED TO
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NJ COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP TO PUSH THE LOWER STRATUS, WHICH MOVED NORTH TODAY, BACK
SOUTHWARD. IT SHOULD ALSO PUSH SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES INTO OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES ADJACENT TO OKX. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO DEPICT
THIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE CENTER OF A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PROGRESS TOWARD THE
EAST COAST THIS EVENING.

SOME HI CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM OF OUR AREA AND IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY A LEADING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE SOUTH TO NORTH LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST VA LATE
TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND EXPAND
NORTHWARD INTO THE DELMARVA BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE AIRMASS ON COLD
SIDE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE INITIALLY DRY SO EXPECT THE
THICKER LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO REMAIN SOUTH OF DELAWARE AND THE
EASTERN SHORE OF MD TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
AND AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. WAA DEVELOPS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IN THIS PATTERN, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NOSING
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS EVEN WITH THE
CENTER OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH RETREATING TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. A CAD SETUP WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR ANCHORED OVER OUR
REGION WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AS IT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY.

THE LATEST 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE QUICKER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP COMPARED TO THE OTHER
OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY INITIALLY, SO
PRECIP MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND AS QUICKLY AS THE NAM INDICATES.
HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR PRECIP TO EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS INITIAL DRY AIR,
ALLOWING THE PRECIP SHIELD TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
CHANCE POPS FIRST ADVERTISED IN THE MORNING FOR THE DELMARVA, MIDDAY
FOR THE SOUTHERN PHILLY SUBURBS AND LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE I-80
CORRIDOR.

PTYPE WILL PREDOMINATELY BE RAIN ON MONDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX (SNOW/SLEET) AWAY FROM THE COAST AT THE ONSET DUE
TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. THERE IS STILL NOT ENOUGH FORECAST
CERTAINTY TO PUBLISH A SNOWFALL MAP, BUT THE SETUP APPEARS LIMITED
FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS EVEN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA. WE
PREFERRED TO USE THE COOLER NAM/ECMWF FOR THERMAL PROFILES IN THIS
CAD SETUP TO DIAGNOSE POTENTIAL PTYPES AND FOR FORECASTING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. A H5 TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE COUNTRY...AND ITS EFFECTS WILL BE FOR CLOUDS AND MOSTLY RAIN
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN WILL COME AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AND MOVES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE NJ/DE COAST TUESDAY. WE HAVE CHC POPS N/W AND
LIKELY POPS S/E WITH THIS FEATURE. ON TUESDAY...THE HIGHER POPS MOVE
TO THE NORTHERN AREAS AS ONSHORE FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE
LOW REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A BREAK IN THE WET PATTERN TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES AND IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE WEST...RESULTING IN A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE HIGH POPS
OFFERED BY WPC...WHICH ARE IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TUE NIGHT THRU
WED NIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WED NGT INTO THU.
IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY 12Z...BUT WE
HAVE LEFT IN A CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS THU MORNING...IN CASE THE
SYSTEM SLOWS UP AT ALL. IT APPEARS THAT THE P-TYPE WILL STILL BE
RAIN...SINCE THE COLDER AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR A
CHANGEOVER.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRIER WEATHER AS A SFC
HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE H5 TROUGH WILL STILL BE TO THE
WEST...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BOTH FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER LOW AND DEVELOPING FRONT MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA SAT
NIGHT INTO NEXT SUNDAY...LOW CHC POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE STRATUS THAT MOVED NORTH TODAY IS DRIFTIN BACK DOWN SOUTH
AGAIN. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE THROUGH TRENTON, HAVE JUST MOVED OVER
KPNE, AND IS HEADING TOWARD KPHL. WILL UPDATE THE TERMINALS TO REFLECT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LEFTOVER OVC STRATOCU CONTINUES TO ERODE LATE THIS AFTN OVER MOST OF
THE TERMINALS. AT 20Z, TTN AND RDG LIE ON THE EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS,
WHICH ARE YIELDING MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 FT. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT AT THESE TWO TERMINALS BY SUNSET AT THE LATEST.

VFR THIS EVE. VFR ANTICIPATED FOR MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH THE 12Z NAM DEVELOPS STRATUS FROM PHL NORTH
AND EAST, RESULTING IN MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS BETWEEN BETWEEN
09-15Z. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE, BUT WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL AS THE MARINE LAYER TRIES TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN
CONCERT WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
OTHERWISE, MID CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING. RAIN IS ALSO FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF ILG/MIV DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING,
PHL/PNE/RDG DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND ABE/TTN LATE IN
THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TUE NIGHT.
TUE NIGHT THRU THU MORNING...OCNL LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG.
THU AFTERNOON THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
TONIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY. SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT DURING
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
TUE/TUE NGT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN..SUB-SCA OVER DEL BAY.
WED THRU FRI...SCA CONDITIONS WITH LOW END GALE GUSTS WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 212049
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UP ALONG THE
EAST COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PROGRESS TOWARD THE
EAST COAST THIS EVENING.

SOME HI CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM OF OUR AREA AND IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY A LEADING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE SOUTH TO NORTH LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST VA LATE
TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND EXPAND
NORTHWARD INTO THE DELMARVA BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE AIRMASS ON COLD
SIDE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE INITIALLY DRY SO EXPECT THE
THICKER LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO REMAIN SOUTH OF DELAWARE AND THE
EASTERN SHORE OF MD TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
AND AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. WAA DEVELOPS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IN THIS PATTERN, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NOSING
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS EVEN WITH THE
CENTER OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH RETREATING TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. A CAD SETUP WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR ANCHORED OVER OUR
REGION WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AS IT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY.

THE LATEST 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE QUICKER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP COMPARED TO THE OTHER
OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY INITIALLY, SO
PRECIP MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND AS QUICKLY AS THE NAM INDICATES.
HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR PRECIP TO EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS INITIAL DRY AIR,
ALLOWING THE PRECIP SHIELD TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
CHANCE POPS FIRST ADVERTISED IN THE MORNING FOR THE DELMARVA, MIDDAY
FOR THE SOUTHERN PHILLY SUBURBS AND LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE I-80
CORRIDOR.

PTYPE WILL PREDOMINATELY BE RAIN ON MONDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX (SNOW/SLEET) AWAY FROM THE COAST AT THE ONSET DUE
TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. THERE IS STILL NOT ENOUGH FORECAST
CERTAINTY TO PUBLISH A SNOWFALL MAP, BUT THE SETUP APPEARS LIMITED
FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS EVEN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA. WE
PREFERRED TO USE THE COOLER NAM/ECMWF FOR THERMAL PROFILES IN THIS
CAD SETUP TO DIAGNOSE POTENTIAL PTYPES AND FOR FORECASTING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. A H5 TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE COUNTRY...AND ITS EFFECTS WILL BE FOR CLOUDS AND MOSTLY RAIN
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN WILL COME AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AND MOVES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE NJ/DE COAST TUESDAY. WE HAVE CHC POPS N/W AND
LIKELY POPS S/E WITH THIS FEATURE. ON TUESDAY...THE HIGHER POPS MOVE
TO THE NORTHERN AREAS AS ONSHORE FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE
LOW REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A BREAK IN THE WET PATTERN TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES AND IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE WEST...RESULTING IN A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE HIGH POPS
OFFERED BY WPC...WHICH ARE IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TUE NIGHT THRU
WED NIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WED NGT INTO THU.
IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY 12Z...BUT WE
HAVE LEFT IN A CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS THU MORNING...IN CASE THE
SYSTEM SLOWS UP AT ALL. IT APPEARS THAT THE P-TYPE WILL STILL BE
RAIN...SINCE THE COLDER AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR A
CHANGEOVER.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRIER WEATHER AS A SFC
HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE H5 TROUGH WILL STILL BE TO THE
WEST...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BOTH FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER LOW AND DEVELOPING FRONT MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA SAT
NIGHT INTO NEXT SUNDAY...LOW CHC POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LEFTOVER OVC STRATOCU CONTINUES TO ERODE LATE THIS AFTN OVER MOST OF
THE TERMINALS. AT 20Z, TTN AND RDG LIE ON THE EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS,
WHICH ARE YIELDING MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 FT. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT AT THESE TWO TERMINALS BY SUNSET AT THE LATEST.

VFR THIS EVE. VFR ANTICIPATED FOR MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH THE 12Z NAM DEVELOPS STRATUS FROM PHL NORTH
AND EAST, RESULTING IN MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS BETWEEN BETWEEN
09-15Z. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE, BUT WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL AS THE MARINE LAYER TRIES TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN
CONCERT WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
OTHERWISE, MID CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING. RAIN IS ALSO FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF ILG/MIV DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING,
PHL/PNE/RDG DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND ABE/TTN LATE IN
THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TUE NIGHT.
TUE NIGHT THRU THU MORNING...OCNL LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG.
THU AFTERNOON THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
TONIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY. SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT DURING
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
TUE/TUE NGT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN..SUB-SCA OVER DEL BAY.
WED THRU FRI...SCA CONDITIONS WITH LOW END GALE GUSTS WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 212049
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UP ALONG THE
EAST COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PROGRESS TOWARD THE
EAST COAST THIS EVENING.

SOME HI CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM OF OUR AREA AND IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY A LEADING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE SOUTH TO NORTH LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST VA LATE
TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND EXPAND
NORTHWARD INTO THE DELMARVA BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE AIRMASS ON COLD
SIDE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE INITIALLY DRY SO EXPECT THE
THICKER LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO REMAIN SOUTH OF DELAWARE AND THE
EASTERN SHORE OF MD TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
AND AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. WAA DEVELOPS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IN THIS PATTERN, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NOSING
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS EVEN WITH THE
CENTER OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH RETREATING TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. A CAD SETUP WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR ANCHORED OVER OUR
REGION WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AS IT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY.

THE LATEST 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE QUICKER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP COMPARED TO THE OTHER
OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY INITIALLY, SO
PRECIP MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND AS QUICKLY AS THE NAM INDICATES.
HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR PRECIP TO EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS INITIAL DRY AIR,
ALLOWING THE PRECIP SHIELD TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
CHANCE POPS FIRST ADVERTISED IN THE MORNING FOR THE DELMARVA, MIDDAY
FOR THE SOUTHERN PHILLY SUBURBS AND LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE I-80
CORRIDOR.

PTYPE WILL PREDOMINATELY BE RAIN ON MONDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX (SNOW/SLEET) AWAY FROM THE COAST AT THE ONSET DUE
TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. THERE IS STILL NOT ENOUGH FORECAST
CERTAINTY TO PUBLISH A SNOWFALL MAP, BUT THE SETUP APPEARS LIMITED
FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS EVEN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA. WE
PREFERRED TO USE THE COOLER NAM/ECMWF FOR THERMAL PROFILES IN THIS
CAD SETUP TO DIAGNOSE POTENTIAL PTYPES AND FOR FORECASTING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. A H5 TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE COUNTRY...AND ITS EFFECTS WILL BE FOR CLOUDS AND MOSTLY RAIN
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN WILL COME AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AND MOVES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE NJ/DE COAST TUESDAY. WE HAVE CHC POPS N/W AND
LIKELY POPS S/E WITH THIS FEATURE. ON TUESDAY...THE HIGHER POPS MOVE
TO THE NORTHERN AREAS AS ONSHORE FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE
LOW REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A BREAK IN THE WET PATTERN TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES AND IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE WEST...RESULTING IN A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE HIGH POPS
OFFERED BY WPC...WHICH ARE IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TUE NIGHT THRU
WED NIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WED NGT INTO THU.
IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY 12Z...BUT WE
HAVE LEFT IN A CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS THU MORNING...IN CASE THE
SYSTEM SLOWS UP AT ALL. IT APPEARS THAT THE P-TYPE WILL STILL BE
RAIN...SINCE THE COLDER AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR A
CHANGEOVER.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRIER WEATHER AS A SFC
HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE H5 TROUGH WILL STILL BE TO THE
WEST...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BOTH FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER LOW AND DEVELOPING FRONT MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA SAT
NIGHT INTO NEXT SUNDAY...LOW CHC POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LEFTOVER OVC STRATOCU CONTINUES TO ERODE LATE THIS AFTN OVER MOST OF
THE TERMINALS. AT 20Z, TTN AND RDG LIE ON THE EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS,
WHICH ARE YIELDING MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 FT. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT AT THESE TWO TERMINALS BY SUNSET AT THE LATEST.

VFR THIS EVE. VFR ANTICIPATED FOR MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH THE 12Z NAM DEVELOPS STRATUS FROM PHL NORTH
AND EAST, RESULTING IN MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS BETWEEN BETWEEN
09-15Z. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE, BUT WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL AS THE MARINE LAYER TRIES TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN
CONCERT WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
OTHERWISE, MID CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING. RAIN IS ALSO FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF ILG/MIV DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING,
PHL/PNE/RDG DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND ABE/TTN LATE IN
THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TUE NIGHT.
TUE NIGHT THRU THU MORNING...OCNL LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG.
THU AFTERNOON THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
TONIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY. SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT DURING
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
TUE/TUE NGT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN..SUB-SCA OVER DEL BAY.
WED THRU FRI...SCA CONDITIONS WITH LOW END GALE GUSTS WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 211433
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
933 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC TODAY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND
IT SHOULD REACH ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATING OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY. THE LOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS IT
LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CENTER OF A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED OVER EASTERN
CANADA AT 14Z THIS MORNING. THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND RESULTANT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY UNDER THIS SETUP.

STRATOCU STILL HOLDING STRONG OVER NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHERN NJ THIS
MORNING, WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT AROUND 900 MB. THE DELMARVA IS POSITIONED IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK, RESULTING IN
OVERCAST MID CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
BAND OF CLEARING EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE CWA THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST
PA, INCLUDING PHILLY AND ADJACENT CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NJ MID
MORNING. THE CLEARING SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD THRUOUT THE
DAY AS THE JET STREAK PROGRESSES OFF THE COAST, ALTHOUGH THE
HEATING WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRATOCU. CLOUDS
SHOULD BE SLOWER TO ERODE OVER NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ THRU
MIDDAY, BUT SOME SUN IS ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MAX TEMP FORECAST BASED OFF
CHANGES MADE TO THE SKY GRIDS. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN
THE POCONOS TO AROUND 40F IN PHILLY, SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT SOME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT
OUR AREA WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE. ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING, BUT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
AS THERE IS A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOISTURE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. AN
IMPULSE TRAVELING IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AT THAT TIME. WE HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE
OF RAIN ARRIVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN EVEN UP
NORTH WHERE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS THE LOWEST IN OUR
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER ATLANTIC
CANADA FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO NOSE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AT THAT TIME WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON THE TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

MEANWHILE, A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR
REGION FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP OUR REGION OVERCAST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT CONTINUES
TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING TO POSSIBLY RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE
AND IT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
REPRESENTATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF IN OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW LATE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. A WEST WIND AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH IS FORECAST WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BE FAST MOVING AND IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN OPPORTUNITY TO
TAP INTO A MOISTURE SOURCE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT FORECAST ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY. CLEARING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS PHILLY AREA
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WHILE ABE REMAINS OVC JUST ABOVE 3000 FT.
EXPECT SCT CIGS AROUND 3 KFT THIS AFTN FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT (BELOW 10 KT). WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN
LIKELY. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET IN A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SOUTH WIND BECOMING WEST. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
MAY BE TO 6 TO 9 FEET.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BE TO 5 TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211433
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
933 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC TODAY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND
IT SHOULD REACH ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATING OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY. THE LOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS IT
LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CENTER OF A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED OVER EASTERN
CANADA AT 14Z THIS MORNING. THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND RESULTANT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY UNDER THIS SETUP.

STRATOCU STILL HOLDING STRONG OVER NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHERN NJ THIS
MORNING, WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT AROUND 900 MB. THE DELMARVA IS POSITIONED IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK, RESULTING IN
OVERCAST MID CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
BAND OF CLEARING EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE CWA THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST
PA, INCLUDING PHILLY AND ADJACENT CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NJ MID
MORNING. THE CLEARING SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD THRUOUT THE
DAY AS THE JET STREAK PROGRESSES OFF THE COAST, ALTHOUGH THE
HEATING WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRATOCU. CLOUDS
SHOULD BE SLOWER TO ERODE OVER NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ THRU
MIDDAY, BUT SOME SUN IS ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MAX TEMP FORECAST BASED OFF
CHANGES MADE TO THE SKY GRIDS. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN
THE POCONOS TO AROUND 40F IN PHILLY, SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT SOME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT
OUR AREA WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE. ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING, BUT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
AS THERE IS A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOISTURE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. AN
IMPULSE TRAVELING IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AT THAT TIME. WE HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE
OF RAIN ARRIVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN EVEN UP
NORTH WHERE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS THE LOWEST IN OUR
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER ATLANTIC
CANADA FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO NOSE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AT THAT TIME WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON THE TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

MEANWHILE, A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR
REGION FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP OUR REGION OVERCAST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT CONTINUES
TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING TO POSSIBLY RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE
AND IT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
REPRESENTATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF IN OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW LATE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. A WEST WIND AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH IS FORECAST WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BE FAST MOVING AND IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN OPPORTUNITY TO
TAP INTO A MOISTURE SOURCE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT FORECAST ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY. CLEARING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS PHILLY AREA
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WHILE ABE REMAINS OVC JUST ABOVE 3000 FT.
EXPECT SCT CIGS AROUND 3 KFT THIS AFTN FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT (BELOW 10 KT). WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN
LIKELY. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET IN A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SOUTH WIND BECOMING WEST. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
MAY BE TO 6 TO 9 FEET.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BE TO 5 TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 211432
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
932 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD REACH ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATING OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY. THE LOW SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A WARM
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CENTER OF A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED OVER EASTERN
CANADA AT 14Z THIS MORNING. THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND RESULTANT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY UNDER THIS SETUP.

STRATOCU STILL HOLDING STRONG OVER NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHERN NJ THIS
MORNING, WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT AROUND 900 MB. THE DELMARVA IS POSITIONED IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK, RESULTING IN
OVERCAST MID CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
BAND OF CLEARING EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE CWA THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST
PA, INCLUDING PHILLY AND ADJACENT CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NJ MID
MORNING. THE CLEARING SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD THRUOUT THE
DAY AS THE JET STREAK PROGRESSES OFF THE COAST, ALTHOUGH THE
HEATING WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRATOCU. CLOUDS
SHOULD BE SLOWER TO ERODE OVER NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ THRU
MIDDAY, BUT SOME SUN IS ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MAX TEMP FORECAST BASED OFF
CHANGES MADE TO THE SKY GRIDS. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN
THE POCONOS TO AROUND 40F IN PHILLY, SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT SOME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT
OUR AREA WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE. ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING, BUT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
AS THERE IS A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOISTURE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. AN
IMPULSE TRAVELING IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AT THAT TIME. WE HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE
OF RAIN ARRIVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN EVEN UP
NORTH WHERE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS THE LOWEST IN OUR
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER ATLANTIC
CANADA FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO NOSE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AT THAT TIME WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON THE TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

MEANWHILE, A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR
REGION FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP OUR REGION OVERCAST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT CONTINUES
TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING TO POSSIBLY RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE
AND IT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
REPRESENTATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF IN OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW LATE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. A WEST WIND AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH IS FORECAST WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BE FAST MOVING AND IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN OPPORTUNITY TO
TAP INTO A MOISTURE SOURCE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT FORECAST ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY. CLEARING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS PHILLY AREA
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WHILE ABE REMAINS OVC JUST ABOVE 3000 FT.
EXPECT SCT CIGS AROUND 3 KFT THIS AFTN FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT (BELOW 10 KT). WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN
LIKELY. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET IN A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SOUTH WIND BECOMING WEST. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
MAY BE TO 6 TO 9 FEET.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BE TO 5 TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 211432
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
932 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD REACH ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATING OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY. THE LOW SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A WARM
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CENTER OF A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED OVER EASTERN
CANADA AT 14Z THIS MORNING. THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND RESULTANT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY UNDER THIS SETUP.

STRATOCU STILL HOLDING STRONG OVER NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHERN NJ THIS
MORNING, WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT AROUND 900 MB. THE DELMARVA IS POSITIONED IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK, RESULTING IN
OVERCAST MID CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
BAND OF CLEARING EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE CWA THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST
PA, INCLUDING PHILLY AND ADJACENT CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NJ MID
MORNING. THE CLEARING SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD THRUOUT THE
DAY AS THE JET STREAK PROGRESSES OFF THE COAST, ALTHOUGH THE
HEATING WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRATOCU. CLOUDS
SHOULD BE SLOWER TO ERODE OVER NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ THRU
MIDDAY, BUT SOME SUN IS ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MAX TEMP FORECAST BASED OFF
CHANGES MADE TO THE SKY GRIDS. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN
THE POCONOS TO AROUND 40F IN PHILLY, SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT SOME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT
OUR AREA WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE. ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING, BUT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
AS THERE IS A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOISTURE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. AN
IMPULSE TRAVELING IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AT THAT TIME. WE HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE
OF RAIN ARRIVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN EVEN UP
NORTH WHERE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS THE LOWEST IN OUR
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER ATLANTIC
CANADA FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO NOSE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AT THAT TIME WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON THE TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

MEANWHILE, A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR
REGION FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP OUR REGION OVERCAST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT CONTINUES
TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING TO POSSIBLY RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE
AND IT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
REPRESENTATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF IN OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW LATE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. A WEST WIND AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH IS FORECAST WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BE FAST MOVING AND IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN OPPORTUNITY TO
TAP INTO A MOISTURE SOURCE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT FORECAST ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY. CLEARING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS PHILLY AREA
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WHILE ABE REMAINS OVC JUST ABOVE 3000 FT.
EXPECT SCT CIGS AROUND 3 KFT THIS AFTN FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT (BELOW 10 KT). WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN
LIKELY. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET IN A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SOUTH WIND BECOMING WEST. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
MAY BE TO 6 TO 9 FEET.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BE TO 5 TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210905
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD REACH ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATING OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY. THE LOW SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A WARM
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN CANADA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THE WIDE SWATH OF STRATO CUMULUS
CLOUD COVER THAT HAS PLAGUED OUR AREA THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, WHILE
THE SOUTHERN HALF HAS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THIS MORNING. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, IT MAY HELP SCATTER OUT SOME OF
THE LOW STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS, BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ITS
OWN CLOUD COVER. SO OVERALL A OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY, WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE
BY THE END OF THE DAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THIS SHORT WAVE SINCE THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE,
EVIDENT FROM PW VALUES AROUND ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH.
ALSO, THE GREATEST LOW-MID LEVEL LIFT IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
ACROSS CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK. THE TROUGH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH, SO ANY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY TO
OUR NORTH. IF ANYTHING DID GET SQUEEZED OUT AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH, IT SHOULD ONLY BE FLURRIES, BUT WE WILL KEEP THIS
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT SOME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT
OUR AREA WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE. ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING, BUT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
AS THERE IS A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOISTURE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. AN
IMPULSE TRAVELING IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AT THAT TIME. WE HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE
OF RAIN ARRIVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN EVEN UP
NORTH WHERE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS THE LOWEST IN OUR
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER ATLANTIC
CANADA FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO NOSE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AT THAT TIME WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON THE TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

MEANWHILE, A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR
REGION FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP OUR REGION OVERCAST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT CONTINUES
TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING TO POSSIBLY RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE
AND IT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
REPRESENTATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF IN OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW LATE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. A WEST WIND AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH IS FORECAST WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BE FAST MOVING AND IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN OPPORTUNITY TO
TAP INTO A MOISTURE SOURCE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT FORECAST ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA, WITH MVFR CIGS IN PLACE AT ABE. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN VFR, ESPECIALLY AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THOSE AREAS THAT ARE MVFR ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR
LATER THIS MORNING. ONCE EVERYONE BECOMES VFR, THEY SHOULD REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-8 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN
LIKELY. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET IN A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SOUTH WIND BECOMING WEST. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
MAY BE TO 6 TO 9 FEET.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BE TO 5 TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210905
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD REACH ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATING OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY. THE LOW SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A WARM
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN CANADA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THE WIDE SWATH OF STRATO CUMULUS
CLOUD COVER THAT HAS PLAGUED OUR AREA THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, WHILE
THE SOUTHERN HALF HAS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THIS MORNING. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, IT MAY HELP SCATTER OUT SOME OF
THE LOW STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS, BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ITS
OWN CLOUD COVER. SO OVERALL A OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY, WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE
BY THE END OF THE DAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THIS SHORT WAVE SINCE THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE,
EVIDENT FROM PW VALUES AROUND ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH.
ALSO, THE GREATEST LOW-MID LEVEL LIFT IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
ACROSS CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK. THE TROUGH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH, SO ANY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY TO
OUR NORTH. IF ANYTHING DID GET SQUEEZED OUT AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH, IT SHOULD ONLY BE FLURRIES, BUT WE WILL KEEP THIS
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT SOME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT
OUR AREA WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE. ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING, BUT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
AS THERE IS A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOISTURE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. AN
IMPULSE TRAVELING IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AT THAT TIME. WE HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE
OF RAIN ARRIVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN EVEN UP
NORTH WHERE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS THE LOWEST IN OUR
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER ATLANTIC
CANADA FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO NOSE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AT THAT TIME WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON THE TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

MEANWHILE, A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR
REGION FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP OUR REGION OVERCAST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT CONTINUES
TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING TO POSSIBLY RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE
AND IT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
REPRESENTATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF IN OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW LATE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. A WEST WIND AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH IS FORECAST WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BE FAST MOVING AND IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN OPPORTUNITY TO
TAP INTO A MOISTURE SOURCE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT FORECAST ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA, WITH MVFR CIGS IN PLACE AT ABE. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN VFR, ESPECIALLY AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THOSE AREAS THAT ARE MVFR ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR
LATER THIS MORNING. ONCE EVERYONE BECOMES VFR, THEY SHOULD REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-8 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN
LIKELY. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET IN A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SOUTH WIND BECOMING WEST. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
MAY BE TO 6 TO 9 FEET.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BE TO 5 TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 210216
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
916 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION
FROM ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE
OFF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC...LEADING TO A
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND A WEAKER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION,
ESPECIALLY PHILLY NORTH. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP SOUTH OF
PHILLY, BUT SKIES WILL FILL UP AGAIN AS A MID-LEVEL DECK ADVECTS
IN OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE.

THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP THE CWA PRECIP-FREE(MEASURABLE)
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS DOES THE LOWER RES MODELS. WE`LL KEEP THE
GRIDS AS IS, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 20S
NORTH AND MID OR UPPER 20S SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA SUN MORNING...UPPER RIDGING
WILL TAKE PLACE. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY ALLOW MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA. WE HAVE WRITTEN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FCST FOR NOW. WE HELD
ONTO SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS HOWEVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...WHILE READINGS HOLD IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH/WEST AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST.
* INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE WITH
  TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
* BRISK WESTERLY WIND CHRISTMAS DAY W/FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

OVERVIEW...

VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ACCOMPANYING 160 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL
JET MAX COMING ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND
WILL LEAD TO A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID-WEEK.
INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS EJECTED NORTHEAST
AND WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. THIS WEAK FEATURE SHOULD TRACK OFFSHORE WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY PER TODAYS 12Z UKMET AND GFS...
FEEL THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE TOO FAR NORTH, SLOW, AND DEEP W/THIS
FEATURE...THUS THEY ALSO CRANK OUT TOO MUCH QPF. NEVERTHELESS...
QPF COMBINED WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES OVER THE NORTHWEST
COULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL FLOW
THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL...PUMPING ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AND MOIST AIR UP THE EAST COAST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAIN
ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION...LEADING TO A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE ON THE
BACK-SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...W/SURFACE
HIGH ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST IN A COLD-AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY INSENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE
COLDER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE DAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS IN ALOFT AND LOW-LEVELS GRADUALLY SATURATE. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD AIR
IS REINFORCED W/NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND PRECIP LEADS TO
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...
ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING REMAINS WELL TO
THE WEST...BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THRU THE DAY. QPF SHOULD BE GENERALLY
LIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...
A VIGOROUS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST W/STILL SOME SPREAD NOTED
FROM THE MEAN IN BOTH THE ECENS AND GEFS 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELDS...
INDICATING SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO WHAT DEGREE IT GOES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. NEVERTHELESS...A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR UP TO 1-2 INCHES OF QPF...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOTING A STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX AND THE
LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A 160 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE
APPALACHIANS. ALSO NOTING STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH /2-3 STANDARD DEVIATION/ PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STREAMING
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THUS THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
ASCENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...W/THE MODELS KEYING IN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIP...AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY
DUE TO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL CHRISTMAS EVE. LATER SHIFTS WILL ALSO
NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
AND CONVECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOW-PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC AND HIGH-PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS AND THERE
COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY...
PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION...BUT IT/S TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS MID-WEEK COULD ADD TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THERE HAS BEEN PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE
INVERSION AGAIN TODAY. CIGS WERE BETWEEN 025-035 ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING WE`RE SEEING MORE 030-035. STILL,
MOSTLY IN THE NORTH QUADRANT.

WE`LL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE TERMINALS FROM KPHL NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TO THE SOUTH, WE`VE SCATTERED THE LOW LEVEL
DECK OUT. A SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME ALTOCU TO JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
MENTIONED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...VFR.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AS MARINE LAYER BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND STRATUS ADVECTS INLAND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND IN-SITU CAD FROM LIGHT RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS COULD YIELD AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS (CIGS WOULD BE THE MORE LIKELY CONTRIBUTOR TO
IFR THAN VSBYS) MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS VEER MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
HEAVIEST DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PREDOMINATELY MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FOLLOWING
WARM FROPA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU SOMETIME AT
NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF
FROPA.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WINDS COULD BECOME STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY WITH BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z GFS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA FLAG CRITERIA. WINDS WILL
MOSTLY BE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS ON TUESDAY.
WINDS 15-20 KT FORECAST ON TUESDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
5-6 FEET TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WARRANTING THE NEED FOR A SCA.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AFTER
WARM FROPA. DESPITE WINDS OF 40-50 KT FORECAST 1000 FT ABOVE THE
SURFACE, THERMAL PROFILES NOT FAVORABLE FOR MIXING WITH THE SETUP OF
WARM AIR MOVING ATOP THE COOLER WATERS. EXPECTING MORE OF A HIGH END
SCA WITH 25-30 KT WINDS. WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL STILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE WATERS. SEAS FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 6-8 FEET.

THURSDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED. GALES CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210216
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
916 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION
FROM ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE
OFF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC...LEADING TO A
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND A WEAKER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION,
ESPECIALLY PHILLY NORTH. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP SOUTH OF
PHILLY, BUT SKIES WILL FILL UP AGAIN AS A MID-LEVEL DECK ADVECTS
IN OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE.

THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP THE CWA PRECIP-FREE(MEASURABLE)
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS DOES THE LOWER RES MODELS. WE`LL KEEP THE
GRIDS AS IS, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 20S
NORTH AND MID OR UPPER 20S SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA SUN MORNING...UPPER RIDGING
WILL TAKE PLACE. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY ALLOW MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA. WE HAVE WRITTEN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FCST FOR NOW. WE HELD
ONTO SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS HOWEVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...WHILE READINGS HOLD IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH/WEST AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST.
* INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE WITH
  TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
* BRISK WESTERLY WIND CHRISTMAS DAY W/FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

OVERVIEW...

VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ACCOMPANYING 160 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL
JET MAX COMING ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND
WILL LEAD TO A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID-WEEK.
INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS EJECTED NORTHEAST
AND WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. THIS WEAK FEATURE SHOULD TRACK OFFSHORE WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY PER TODAYS 12Z UKMET AND GFS...
FEEL THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE TOO FAR NORTH, SLOW, AND DEEP W/THIS
FEATURE...THUS THEY ALSO CRANK OUT TOO MUCH QPF. NEVERTHELESS...
QPF COMBINED WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES OVER THE NORTHWEST
COULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL FLOW
THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL...PUMPING ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AND MOIST AIR UP THE EAST COAST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAIN
ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION...LEADING TO A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE ON THE
BACK-SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...W/SURFACE
HIGH ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST IN A COLD-AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY INSENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE
COLDER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE DAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS IN ALOFT AND LOW-LEVELS GRADUALLY SATURATE. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD AIR
IS REINFORCED W/NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND PRECIP LEADS TO
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...
ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING REMAINS WELL TO
THE WEST...BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THRU THE DAY. QPF SHOULD BE GENERALLY
LIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...
A VIGOROUS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST W/STILL SOME SPREAD NOTED
FROM THE MEAN IN BOTH THE ECENS AND GEFS 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELDS...
INDICATING SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO WHAT DEGREE IT GOES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. NEVERTHELESS...A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR UP TO 1-2 INCHES OF QPF...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOTING A STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX AND THE
LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A 160 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE
APPALACHIANS. ALSO NOTING STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH /2-3 STANDARD DEVIATION/ PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STREAMING
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THUS THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
ASCENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...W/THE MODELS KEYING IN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIP...AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY
DUE TO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL CHRISTMAS EVE. LATER SHIFTS WILL ALSO
NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
AND CONVECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOW-PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC AND HIGH-PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS AND THERE
COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY...
PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION...BUT IT/S TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS MID-WEEK COULD ADD TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THERE HAS BEEN PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE
INVERSION AGAIN TODAY. CIGS WERE BETWEEN 025-035 ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING WE`RE SEEING MORE 030-035. STILL,
MOSTLY IN THE NORTH QUADRANT.

WE`LL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE TERMINALS FROM KPHL NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TO THE SOUTH, WE`VE SCATTERED THE LOW LEVEL
DECK OUT. A SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME ALTOCU TO JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
MENTIONED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...VFR.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AS MARINE LAYER BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND STRATUS ADVECTS INLAND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND IN-SITU CAD FROM LIGHT RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS COULD YIELD AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS (CIGS WOULD BE THE MORE LIKELY CONTRIBUTOR TO
IFR THAN VSBYS) MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS VEER MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
HEAVIEST DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PREDOMINATELY MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FOLLOWING
WARM FROPA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU SOMETIME AT
NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF
FROPA.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WINDS COULD BECOME STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY WITH BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z GFS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA FLAG CRITERIA. WINDS WILL
MOSTLY BE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS ON TUESDAY.
WINDS 15-20 KT FORECAST ON TUESDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
5-6 FEET TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WARRANTING THE NEED FOR A SCA.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AFTER
WARM FROPA. DESPITE WINDS OF 40-50 KT FORECAST 1000 FT ABOVE THE
SURFACE, THERMAL PROFILES NOT FAVORABLE FOR MIXING WITH THE SETUP OF
WARM AIR MOVING ATOP THE COOLER WATERS. EXPECTING MORE OF A HIGH END
SCA WITH 25-30 KT WINDS. WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL STILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE WATERS. SEAS FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 6-8 FEET.

THURSDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED. GALES CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 202125
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
425 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
REGION FROM ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL ORGANIZE OFF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC...LEADING TO A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND A WEAKER COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION WHICH IS AROUND 4K-5K
FT ALOFT. THE CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP SOMEWHAT JUST TO THE WEST AS OF
MID-AFTERNOON...SO SOME BREAKS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. ANOTHER SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 20S NORTH AND MID OR UPPER 20S SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA SUN MORNING...UPPER RIDGING
WILL TAKE PLACE. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY ALLOW MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA. WE HAVE WRITTEN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FCST FOR NOW. WE HELD
ONTO SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS HOWEVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...WHILE READINGS HOLD IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH/WEST AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST.
* INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE WITH
  TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
* BRISK WESTERLY WIND CHRISTMAS DAY W/FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

OVERVIEW...

VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ACCOMPANYING 160 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL
JET MAX COMING ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND
WILL LEAD TO A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID-WEEK.
INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS EJECTED NORTHEAST
AND WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. THIS WEAK FEATURE SHOULD TRACK OFFSHORE WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY PER TODAYS 12Z UKMET AND GFS...
FEEL THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE TOO FAR NORTH, SLOW, AND DEEP W/THIS
FEATURE...THUS THEY ALSO CRANK OUT TOO MUCH QPF. NEVERTHELESS...
QPF COMBINED WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES OVER THE NORTHWEST
COULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL FLOW
THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL...PUMPING ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AND MOIST AIR UP THE EAST COAST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAIN
ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION...LEADING TO A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE ON THE
BACK-SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...W/SURFACE
HIGH ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST IN A COLD-AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY INSENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE
COLDER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE DAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS IN ALOFT AND LOW-LEVELS GRADUALLY SATURATE. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD AIR
IS REINFORCED W/NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND PRECIP LEADS TO
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...
ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING REMAINS WELL TO
THE WEST...BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THRU THE DAY. QPF SHOULD BE GENERALLY
LIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...
A VIGOROUS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST W/STILL SOME SPREAD NOTED
FROM THE MEAN IN BOTH THE ECENS AND GEFS 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELDS...
INDICATING SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO WHAT DEGREE IT GOES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. NEVERTHELESS...A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR UP TO 1-2 INCHES OF QPF...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOTING A STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX AND THE
LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A 160 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE
APPALACHIANS. ALSO NOTING STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH /2-3 STANDARD DEVIATION/ PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STREAMING
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THUS THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
ASCENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...W/THE MODELS KEYING IN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIP...AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY
DUE TO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL CHRISTMAS EVE. LATER SHIFTS WILL ALSO
NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
AND CONVECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOW-PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC AND HIGH-PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS AND THERE
COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY...
PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION...BUT IT/S TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS MID-WEEK COULD ADD TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THERE HAS BEEN PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE
INVERSION AGAIN TODAY. CIGS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY 025-035 ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE NORTH QUADRANT.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SATELLITE PICS
DO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE DECK ACROSS NRN MD AND THE SUSQ VALLEY
WHICH MAY ARRIVE ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AROUND EVENING. MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES MORE CLEARING (OF THE LOW CLOUDS) OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME CI/CS ABOVE. WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THAT FOR THE TAFS...BUT A
FEW SITES HOLDING ON TO LOW CLOUDS LONGER...WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME.
SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME FEW-SCT LOW CLOUDS AND MOSTLY N
OR NE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...VFR.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AS MARINE LAYER BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND STRATUS ADVECTS INLAND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND IN-SITU CAD FROM LIGHT RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS COULD YIELD AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS (CIGS WOULD BE THE MORE LIKELY CONTRIBUTOR TO
IFR THAN VSBYS) MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS VEER MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
HEAVIEST DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PREDOMINATELY MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FOLLOWING
WARM FROPA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU SOMETIME AT
NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF
FROPA.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WINDS COULD BECOME STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY WITH BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z GFS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA FLAG CRITERIA. WINDS WILL
MOSTLY BE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS ON TUESDAY.
WINDS 15-20 KT FORECAST ON TUESDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
5-6 FEET TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WARRANTING THE NEED FOR A SCA.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AFTER
WARM FROPA. DESPITE WINDS OF 40-50 KT FORECAST 1000 FT ABOVE THE
SURFACE, THERMAL PROFILES NOT FAVORABLE FOR MIXING WITH THE SETUP OF
WARM AIR MOVING ATOP THE COOLER WATERS. EXPECTING MORE OF A HIGH END
SCA WITH 25-30 KT WINDS. WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL STILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE WATERS. SEAS FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 6-8 FEET.

THURSDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED. GALES CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 202125
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
425 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
REGION FROM ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL ORGANIZE OFF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC...LEADING TO A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND A WEAKER COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION WHICH IS AROUND 4K-5K
FT ALOFT. THE CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP SOMEWHAT JUST TO THE WEST AS OF
MID-AFTERNOON...SO SOME BREAKS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. ANOTHER SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 20S NORTH AND MID OR UPPER 20S SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA SUN MORNING...UPPER RIDGING
WILL TAKE PLACE. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY ALLOW MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA. WE HAVE WRITTEN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FCST FOR NOW. WE HELD
ONTO SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS HOWEVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...WHILE READINGS HOLD IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH/WEST AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST.
* INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE WITH
  TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
* BRISK WESTERLY WIND CHRISTMAS DAY W/FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

OVERVIEW...

VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ACCOMPANYING 160 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL
JET MAX COMING ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND
WILL LEAD TO A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID-WEEK.
INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS EJECTED NORTHEAST
AND WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. THIS WEAK FEATURE SHOULD TRACK OFFSHORE WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY PER TODAYS 12Z UKMET AND GFS...
FEEL THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE TOO FAR NORTH, SLOW, AND DEEP W/THIS
FEATURE...THUS THEY ALSO CRANK OUT TOO MUCH QPF. NEVERTHELESS...
QPF COMBINED WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES OVER THE NORTHWEST
COULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL FLOW
THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL...PUMPING ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AND MOIST AIR UP THE EAST COAST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAIN
ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION...LEADING TO A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE ON THE
BACK-SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...W/SURFACE
HIGH ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST IN A COLD-AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY INSENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE
COLDER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE DAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS IN ALOFT AND LOW-LEVELS GRADUALLY SATURATE. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD AIR
IS REINFORCED W/NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND PRECIP LEADS TO
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...
ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING REMAINS WELL TO
THE WEST...BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THRU THE DAY. QPF SHOULD BE GENERALLY
LIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...
A VIGOROUS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST W/STILL SOME SPREAD NOTED
FROM THE MEAN IN BOTH THE ECENS AND GEFS 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELDS...
INDICATING SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO WHAT DEGREE IT GOES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. NEVERTHELESS...A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR UP TO 1-2 INCHES OF QPF...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOTING A STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX AND THE
LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A 160 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE
APPALACHIANS. ALSO NOTING STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH /2-3 STANDARD DEVIATION/ PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STREAMING
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THUS THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
ASCENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...W/THE MODELS KEYING IN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIP...AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY
DUE TO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL CHRISTMAS EVE. LATER SHIFTS WILL ALSO
NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
AND CONVECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOW-PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC AND HIGH-PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS AND THERE
COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY...
PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION...BUT IT/S TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS MID-WEEK COULD ADD TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THERE HAS BEEN PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE
INVERSION AGAIN TODAY. CIGS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY 025-035 ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE NORTH QUADRANT.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SATELLITE PICS
DO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE DECK ACROSS NRN MD AND THE SUSQ VALLEY
WHICH MAY ARRIVE ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AROUND EVENING. MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES MORE CLEARING (OF THE LOW CLOUDS) OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME CI/CS ABOVE. WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THAT FOR THE TAFS...BUT A
FEW SITES HOLDING ON TO LOW CLOUDS LONGER...WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME.
SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME FEW-SCT LOW CLOUDS AND MOSTLY N
OR NE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...VFR.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AS MARINE LAYER BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND STRATUS ADVECTS INLAND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND IN-SITU CAD FROM LIGHT RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS COULD YIELD AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS (CIGS WOULD BE THE MORE LIKELY CONTRIBUTOR TO
IFR THAN VSBYS) MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS VEER MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
HEAVIEST DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PREDOMINATELY MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FOLLOWING
WARM FROPA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU SOMETIME AT
NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF
FROPA.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WINDS COULD BECOME STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY WITH BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z GFS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA FLAG CRITERIA. WINDS WILL
MOSTLY BE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS ON TUESDAY.
WINDS 15-20 KT FORECAST ON TUESDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
5-6 FEET TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WARRANTING THE NEED FOR A SCA.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AFTER
WARM FROPA. DESPITE WINDS OF 40-50 KT FORECAST 1000 FT ABOVE THE
SURFACE, THERMAL PROFILES NOT FAVORABLE FOR MIXING WITH THE SETUP OF
WARM AIR MOVING ATOP THE COOLER WATERS. EXPECTING MORE OF A HIGH END
SCA WITH 25-30 KT WINDS. WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL STILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE WATERS. SEAS FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 6-8 FEET.

THURSDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED. GALES CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 201548
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1048 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD REACH ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND IT MAY ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE RECEIVED A FEW CALLS ABOUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND FALLING BELOW
THE RADAR BEAM. WE HAVE ADDED SOME CHC POPS TO THE FCST ACROSS THE
SRN POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. OTHER THAN THAT...FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED TO THE EARLIER FCST. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE NOT
CHANGED AND WINDS ONLY HAD SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. PUBLIC
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT FROM THE DAY TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
CANADA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. WITH CONTINUING LOW PW
VALUES, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX SLIDES
TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN IOWA AND
VICINITY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD
PASS OVER OUR REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE WE ARE
ANTICIPATING SOME CLOUDS WITH THE SYSTEM THERE SHOULD NOT BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD DRIFT
EASTWARD REACHING ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO NOSE SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AT THAT TIME WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF
THE COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON THE
TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN WEAK AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF
THE DELMARVA BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN HERE
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD
WARMING TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER, POCKETS OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY LINGER IN THE POCONOS ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING SO WE HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN THERE.

OUR MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE COMING WEEK IS THE DEEP MID
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND ITS AXIS SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD EARLY ON THURSDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE AND IT WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO OUR REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. SOME 60 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE DELMARVA
AND PERHAPS IN FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
QUITE BREEZY IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MIX
RATHER EFFICIENTLY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S BY
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES
RAPIDLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS
A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE FEATURE AT THIS POINT AS WELL ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE NOW MVFR, EXCEPT PHL/ILG/MIV, ALTHOUGH
THEY SHOULD BE THERE SHORTLY. THE MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION. CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD, LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT BEGIN TO SCATTER
OUT BY MIDDAY, IT`S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY, BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY. EVERYONE
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN LIKELY. THE RAIN
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. A GUSTY SOUTH WIND MAY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL AFFECT THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET IN A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...OHARA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 201548
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1048 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD REACH ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND IT MAY ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE RECEIVED A FEW CALLS ABOUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND FALLING BELOW
THE RADAR BEAM. WE HAVE ADDED SOME CHC POPS TO THE FCST ACROSS THE
SRN POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. OTHER THAN THAT...FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED TO THE EARLIER FCST. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE NOT
CHANGED AND WINDS ONLY HAD SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. PUBLIC
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT FROM THE DAY TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
CANADA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. WITH CONTINUING LOW PW
VALUES, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX SLIDES
TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN IOWA AND
VICINITY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD
PASS OVER OUR REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE WE ARE
ANTICIPATING SOME CLOUDS WITH THE SYSTEM THERE SHOULD NOT BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD DRIFT
EASTWARD REACHING ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO NOSE SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AT THAT TIME WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF
THE COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON THE
TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN WEAK AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF
THE DELMARVA BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN HERE
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD
WARMING TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER, POCKETS OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY LINGER IN THE POCONOS ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING SO WE HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN THERE.

OUR MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE COMING WEEK IS THE DEEP MID
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND ITS AXIS SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD EARLY ON THURSDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE AND IT WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO OUR REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. SOME 60 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE DELMARVA
AND PERHAPS IN FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
QUITE BREEZY IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MIX
RATHER EFFICIENTLY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S BY
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES
RAPIDLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS
A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE FEATURE AT THIS POINT AS WELL ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE NOW MVFR, EXCEPT PHL/ILG/MIV, ALTHOUGH
THEY SHOULD BE THERE SHORTLY. THE MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION. CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD, LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT BEGIN TO SCATTER
OUT BY MIDDAY, IT`S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY, BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY. EVERYONE
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN LIKELY. THE RAIN
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. A GUSTY SOUTH WIND MAY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL AFFECT THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET IN A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...OHARA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 200855
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD REACH ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND IT MAY ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY, WITH THE MID-ATLANTIC BEING ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE. THIS WILL KEEP A DRY, LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN ONE-QUARTER AND ONE-THIRD OF AN
INCH, NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. HOWEVER, THERE WILL REMAIN
MOISTURE CAUGHT UP UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION WHICH SHOULD KEEP SOME
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN IF THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT DURING THE DAY, WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA.
THE NORTHERLY WIND, ALONG WITH ANY CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY, SO WE USED A BLEND
OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT FROM THE DAY TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
CANADA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. WITH CONTINUING LOW PW
VALUES, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX SLIDES
TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN IOWA AND
VICINITY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD
PASS OVER OUR REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE WE ARE
ANTICIPATING SOME CLOUDS WITH THE SYSTEM THERE SHOULD NOT BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD DRIFT
EASTWARD REACHING ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO NOSE SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AT THAT TIME WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF
THE COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON THE
TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN WEAK AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF
THE DELMARVA BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN HERE
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD
WARMING TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER, POCKETS OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY LINGER IN THE POCONOS ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING SO WE HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN THERE.

OUR MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE COMING WEEK IS THE DEEP MID
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND ITS AXIS SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD EARLY ON THURSDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE AND IT WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO OUR REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. SOME 60 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE DELMARVA
AND PERHAPS IN FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
QUITE BREEZY IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MIX
RATHER EFFICIENTLY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S BY
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES
RAPIDLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS
A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE FEATURE AT THIS POINT AS WELL ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE NOW MVFR, EXCEPT PHL/ILG/MIV, ALTHOUGH
THEY SHOULD BE THERE SHORTLY. THE MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION. CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD, LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT BEGIN TO SCATTER
OUT BY MIDDAY, IT`S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY, BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY. EVERYONE
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN LIKELY. THE RAIN
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. A GUSTY SOUTH WIND MAY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL AFFECT THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET IN A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 200855
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD REACH ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND IT MAY ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY, WITH THE MID-ATLANTIC BEING ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE. THIS WILL KEEP A DRY, LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN ONE-QUARTER AND ONE-THIRD OF AN
INCH, NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. HOWEVER, THERE WILL REMAIN
MOISTURE CAUGHT UP UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION WHICH SHOULD KEEP SOME
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN IF THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT DURING THE DAY, WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA.
THE NORTHERLY WIND, ALONG WITH ANY CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY, SO WE USED A BLEND
OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT FROM THE DAY TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
CANADA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. WITH CONTINUING LOW PW
VALUES, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX SLIDES
TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN IOWA AND
VICINITY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD
PASS OVER OUR REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE WE ARE
ANTICIPATING SOME CLOUDS WITH THE SYSTEM THERE SHOULD NOT BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD DRIFT
EASTWARD REACHING ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO NOSE SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AT THAT TIME WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF
THE COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON THE
TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN WEAK AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF
THE DELMARVA BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN HERE
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD
WARMING TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER, POCKETS OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY LINGER IN THE POCONOS ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING SO WE HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN THERE.

OUR MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE COMING WEEK IS THE DEEP MID
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND ITS AXIS SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD EARLY ON THURSDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE AND IT WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO OUR REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. SOME 60 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE DELMARVA
AND PERHAPS IN FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
QUITE BREEZY IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MIX
RATHER EFFICIENTLY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S BY
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES
RAPIDLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS
A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE FEATURE AT THIS POINT AS WELL ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE NOW MVFR, EXCEPT PHL/ILG/MIV, ALTHOUGH
THEY SHOULD BE THERE SHORTLY. THE MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION. CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD, LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT BEGIN TO SCATTER
OUT BY MIDDAY, IT`S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY, BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY. EVERYONE
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN LIKELY. THE RAIN
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. A GUSTY SOUTH WIND MAY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL AFFECT THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET IN A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 200240
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THRU MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE ON MONDAY AND
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVE
THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS STILL WORKING THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD DEEPER INTO OUR CWA.
IT DOES FEEL LIKE WE ARE STUCK IN THE STRATOCUMULUS VERSION OF
GROUND HOG DAY. OVERNIGHT THERE IS A LOW LEVEL VORT MAX THAT IS
KEEPING THE LOW CLOUDS PERPETUATING AND JUST ENOUGH OF AN
INVERSION TO GIVE THEM A COMFORT LEVEL. IT LOOKS TO TAKE MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT FOR THIS TO FEATURE TO CLEAR. LATER AT NIGHT SOME OF
THE CIRRUS FROM THE ONCE FORMIDABLE LOOKING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL ALSO REACH OUR CWA.

OUR ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE, ESP NORTH AND BUMP
UP MIN TEMPS THERE. IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, THE SHORT
WAVE TRAJ BYPASSES IT, SO WE WENT WITH A PTLY CLDY NIGHT. WINDS
ARE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT WE KEPT RADIATING MINS IN THE NJ PINE
BARRENS AND INTERIOR DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE SOME FROST SCRAPING
COME SATURDAY MORNING IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER CANADA SHIFTS EWD FROM
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. A RIDGE AXIS IS FCST TO EXTEND SWD THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION RESULTING IN ONLY LIGHT NLY WINDS. SOME LOW-LVL
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BUT HARD TO SAY HOW EXTENSIVE ANY LOW CLOUDS MAY BE. THE
12-KM NAM SHOWS A THIN LOW CLOUD LAYER DEVELOPING DURG THE DAY BUT
HIGHER-RES ARW/NMM AND THE GFS DO NOT. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS ALSO ASSOCD WITH THE SHRTWV NOW MOVING ENEWD OUT OF THE SRN
PLAINS...HWVR POPS REMAIN NEAR ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH.
* SNOW POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE MONDAY
  THRU EARLY TUESDAY.
* POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INCREASING ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

OVERVIEW...

MID-LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NOAM BEGINS TO DISLODGE IN RESPONSE
JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...CARVING
OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY EARLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
LEADS TO INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY MAY GENERATE
ENOUGH LIFT ALONG WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AS MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. RIDGING
THEN BUILDS IN SO FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW-PRESSURE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
MODELS BRING QPF NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT THE BEST LIFT IS FOCUSED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THIS AREA...AND THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH PER
12Z UKMET MODEL. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH ULTIMATE TRACK.

WEDNESDAY...
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A BRIEF RESPITE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.
THEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED...LEADING TO A MERIDIONAL FLOW ALONG
THE EAST COAST...WITH THE ENTIRE COLUMN EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA FAVORING A RAIN EVENT. THERE ARE SEVERAL
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR HEAVY RAIN. IN PARTICULAR...DEEP
GULF MOISTURE...LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...MID-LEVEL PVA...AND
THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A 140 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL JET JUST NORTH.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

THU AND FRI...
LOW-PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC AND HIGH-PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND
THERE COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 00Z TAFS TAKE CIGS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS TONIGHT FROM THE KPHL
AREA AIRPORTS NORTHWESTWARD WITH IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY. ITS BEEN
TOUGH TO SHAKE THIS STRATOCU LEVEL CLOUDINESS PATTERN.

FOR TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ADVANCING IN FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AIRPORTS ARE STILL HEADING INTO THE TERMINALS. WE BRING MVFR CIG
POTENTIAL FROM THE GET GO AT KABE AND KRDG (HIER CONFIDENCE
OVERNIGHT) AND BRING IT DOWN TO THE KPHL METRO AIRPORTS AFTER 05Z.
WE LEAVE KACY AND KMIV VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY, PREDICTING THE MVFR CIG TO BECOME SCATTERED DURING
THE MORNING FROM THE KPHL METRO AIRPORTS NWWD WITH A CIRRUS CIG
ABOVE. KACY AND KMIV NOT EXPECTING A MVFR CIG. IT WILL BE A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
IS FAVORED, BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS,
PROBABLY PREDOMINATELY LESS THAN 6 KNOTS AT SOME OF THE MORE
RURAL AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA AND SHSN.
WEDNESDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST. SMWHT
GUST NW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVERHEAD. SEAS ARE
CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT BUT THEY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ALSO.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR BUILDING SEAS.
WEDNESDAY...GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...AMC/FRANCK







000
FXUS61 KPHI 200240
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THRU MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE ON MONDAY AND
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MOVE
THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK, BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS STILL WORKING THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD DEEPER INTO OUR CWA.
IT DOES FEEL LIKE WE ARE STUCK IN THE STRATOCUMULUS VERSION OF
GROUND HOG DAY. OVERNIGHT THERE IS A LOW LEVEL VORT MAX THAT IS
KEEPING THE LOW CLOUDS PERPETUATING AND JUST ENOUGH OF AN
INVERSION TO GIVE THEM A COMFORT LEVEL. IT LOOKS TO TAKE MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT FOR THIS TO FEATURE TO CLEAR. LATER AT NIGHT SOME OF
THE CIRRUS FROM THE ONCE FORMIDABLE LOOKING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL ALSO REACH OUR CWA.

OUR ADJUSTMENT WAS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE, ESP NORTH AND BUMP
UP MIN TEMPS THERE. IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, THE SHORT
WAVE TRAJ BYPASSES IT, SO WE WENT WITH A PTLY CLDY NIGHT. WINDS
ARE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT WE KEPT RADIATING MINS IN THE NJ PINE
BARRENS AND INTERIOR DELMARVA. THERE WILL BE SOME FROST SCRAPING
COME SATURDAY MORNING IN THOSE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER CANADA SHIFTS EWD FROM
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. A RIDGE AXIS IS FCST TO EXTEND SWD THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION RESULTING IN ONLY LIGHT NLY WINDS. SOME LOW-LVL
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BUT HARD TO SAY HOW EXTENSIVE ANY LOW CLOUDS MAY BE. THE
12-KM NAM SHOWS A THIN LOW CLOUD LAYER DEVELOPING DURG THE DAY BUT
HIGHER-RES ARW/NMM AND THE GFS DO NOT. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS ALSO ASSOCD WITH THE SHRTWV NOW MOVING ENEWD OUT OF THE SRN
PLAINS...HWVR POPS REMAIN NEAR ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH.
* SNOW POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE MONDAY
  THRU EARLY TUESDAY.
* POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INCREASING ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

OVERVIEW...

MID-LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NOAM BEGINS TO DISLODGE IN RESPONSE
JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...CARVING
OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY EARLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
LEADS TO INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY MAY GENERATE
ENOUGH LIFT ALONG WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AS MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. RIDGING
THEN BUILDS IN SO FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW-PRESSURE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
MODELS BRING QPF NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT THE BEST LIFT IS FOCUSED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THIS AREA...AND THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH PER
12Z UKMET MODEL. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH ULTIMATE TRACK.

WEDNESDAY...
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A BRIEF RESPITE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.
THEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED...LEADING TO A MERIDIONAL FLOW ALONG
THE EAST COAST...WITH THE ENTIRE COLUMN EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA FAVORING A RAIN EVENT. THERE ARE SEVERAL
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR HEAVY RAIN. IN PARTICULAR...DEEP
GULF MOISTURE...LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...MID-LEVEL PVA...AND
THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A 140 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL JET JUST NORTH.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

THU AND FRI...
LOW-PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC AND HIGH-PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND
THERE COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 00Z TAFS TAKE CIGS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS TONIGHT FROM THE KPHL
AREA AIRPORTS NORTHWESTWARD WITH IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY. ITS BEEN
TOUGH TO SHAKE THIS STRATOCU LEVEL CLOUDINESS PATTERN.

FOR TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ADVANCING IN FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AIRPORTS ARE STILL HEADING INTO THE TERMINALS. WE BRING MVFR CIG
POTENTIAL FROM THE GET GO AT KABE AND KRDG (HIER CONFIDENCE
OVERNIGHT) AND BRING IT DOWN TO THE KPHL METRO AIRPORTS AFTER 05Z.
WE LEAVE KACY AND KMIV VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY, PREDICTING THE MVFR CIG TO BECOME SCATTERED DURING
THE MORNING FROM THE KPHL METRO AIRPORTS NWWD WITH A CIRRUS CIG
ABOVE. KACY AND KMIV NOT EXPECTING A MVFR CIG. IT WILL BE A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
IS FAVORED, BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS,
PROBABLY PREDOMINATELY LESS THAN 6 KNOTS AT SOME OF THE MORE
RURAL AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA AND SHSN.
WEDNESDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST. SMWHT
GUST NW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVERHEAD. SEAS ARE
CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT BUT THEY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ALSO.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR BUILDING SEAS.
WEDNESDAY...GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...AMC/FRANCK








000
FXUS61 KPHI 192328
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
628 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THRU MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE ON MONDAY
AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVE THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION
BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE WE ADJUSTED SKY COVER GOING MORE PESSIMISTIC
NORTH BASED ON CURRENT POSNING OF CLOUDS AND THE 18Z MODELS
BRINGING AN 850MB SHORT WAVE THRU THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. WE
UPPED TEMPS SLIGHTLY NORTH, LEFT THE REST AS IS. WITH LIGHT WINDS,
CONFIDENCE ABOUT TEMPS DUE TO CLOUD COVER UNCERTAINTY IS LOWER
THAN AVERAGE.

FOR TONIGHT...NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS
CANADIAN LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRES MOVES CLOSED WITH
RESULTING RELAXED PRES GRAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER CANADA SHIFTS EWD FROM
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. A RIDGE AXIS IS FCST TO EXTEND SWD THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION RESULTING IN ONLY LIGHT NLY WINDS. SOME LOW-LVL
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BUT HARD TO SAY HOW EXTENSIVE ANY LOW CLOUDS MAY BE. THE
12-KM NAM SHOWS A THIN LOW CLOUD LAYER DEVELOPING DURG THE DAY BUT
HIGHER-RES ARW/NMM AND THE GFS DO NOT. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS ALSO ASSOCD WITH THE SHRTWV NOW MOVING ENEWD OUT OF THE SRN
PLAINS...HWVR POPS REMAIN NEAR ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH.
* SNOW POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE MONDAY
  THRU EARLY TUESDAY.
* POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INCREASING ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

OVERVIEW...

MID-LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NOAM BEGINS TO DISLODGE IN RESPONSE
JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...CARVING
OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY EARLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
LEADS TO INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY MAY GENERATE
ENOUGH LIFT ALONG WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AS MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. RIDGING
THEN BUILDS IN SO FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW-PRESSURE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
MODELS BRING QPF NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT THE BEST LIFT IS FOCUSED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THIS AREA...AND THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH PER
12Z UKMET MODEL. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH ULTIMATE TRACK.

WEDNESDAY...
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A BRIEF RESPITE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.
THEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED...LEADING TO A MERIDIONAL FLOW ALONG
THE EAST COAST...WITH THE ENTIRE COLUMN EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA FAVORING A RAIN EVENT. THERE ARE SEVERAL
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR HEAVY RAIN. IN PARTICULAR...DEEP
GULF MOISTURE...LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...MID-LEVEL PVA...AND
THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A 140 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL JET JUST NORTH.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

THU AND FRI...
LOW-PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC AND HIGH-PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND
THERE COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 00Z TAFS TAKE CIGS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS TONIGHT FROM THE KPHL
AREA AIRPORTS NORTHWESTWARD WITH IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY. ITS BEEN
TOUGH TO SHAKE THIS STRATOCU LEVEL CLOUDINESS PATTERN.

FOR TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ADVANCING IN FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AIRPORTS ARE STILL HEADING INTO THE TERMINALS. WE BRING MVFR CIG
POTENTIAL FROM THE GET GO AT KABE AND KRDG (HIER CONFIDENCE
OVERNIGHT) AND BRING IT DOWN TO THE KPHL METRO AIRPORTS AFTER 05Z.
WE LEAVE KACY AND KMIV VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY, PREDICTING THE MVFR CIG TO BECOME SCATTERED DURING
THE MORNING FROM THE KPHL METRO AIRPORTS NWWD WITH A CIRRUS CIG
ABOVE. KACY AND KMIV NOT EXPECTING A MVFR CIG. IT WILL BE A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
IS FAVORED, BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS,
PROBABLY PREDOMINATELY LESS THAN 6 KNOTS AT SOME OF THE MORE
RURAL AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA AND SHSN.
WEDNESDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST. SMWHT
GUST NW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVERHEAD. SEAS ARE
CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT BUT THEY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ALSO.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR BUILDING SEAS.
WEDNESDAY...GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...AMC/GIGI
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...AMC/FRANCK







000
FXUS61 KPHI 192328
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
628 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THRU MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE ON MONDAY
AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVE THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION
BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE WE ADJUSTED SKY COVER GOING MORE PESSIMISTIC
NORTH BASED ON CURRENT POSNING OF CLOUDS AND THE 18Z MODELS
BRINGING AN 850MB SHORT WAVE THRU THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. WE
UPPED TEMPS SLIGHTLY NORTH, LEFT THE REST AS IS. WITH LIGHT WINDS,
CONFIDENCE ABOUT TEMPS DUE TO CLOUD COVER UNCERTAINTY IS LOWER
THAN AVERAGE.

FOR TONIGHT...NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS
CANADIAN LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRES MOVES CLOSED WITH
RESULTING RELAXED PRES GRAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER CANADA SHIFTS EWD FROM
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. A RIDGE AXIS IS FCST TO EXTEND SWD THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION RESULTING IN ONLY LIGHT NLY WINDS. SOME LOW-LVL
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BUT HARD TO SAY HOW EXTENSIVE ANY LOW CLOUDS MAY BE. THE
12-KM NAM SHOWS A THIN LOW CLOUD LAYER DEVELOPING DURG THE DAY BUT
HIGHER-RES ARW/NMM AND THE GFS DO NOT. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS ALSO ASSOCD WITH THE SHRTWV NOW MOVING ENEWD OUT OF THE SRN
PLAINS...HWVR POPS REMAIN NEAR ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH.
* SNOW POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE MONDAY
  THRU EARLY TUESDAY.
* POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INCREASING ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

OVERVIEW...

MID-LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NOAM BEGINS TO DISLODGE IN RESPONSE
JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...CARVING
OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY EARLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
LEADS TO INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY MAY GENERATE
ENOUGH LIFT ALONG WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AS MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. RIDGING
THEN BUILDS IN SO FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW-PRESSURE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
MODELS BRING QPF NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT THE BEST LIFT IS FOCUSED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THIS AREA...AND THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH PER
12Z UKMET MODEL. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH ULTIMATE TRACK.

WEDNESDAY...
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A BRIEF RESPITE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.
THEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED...LEADING TO A MERIDIONAL FLOW ALONG
THE EAST COAST...WITH THE ENTIRE COLUMN EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA FAVORING A RAIN EVENT. THERE ARE SEVERAL
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR HEAVY RAIN. IN PARTICULAR...DEEP
GULF MOISTURE...LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...MID-LEVEL PVA...AND
THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A 140 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL JET JUST NORTH.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

THU AND FRI...
LOW-PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC AND HIGH-PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND
THERE COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 00Z TAFS TAKE CIGS DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS TONIGHT FROM THE KPHL
AREA AIRPORTS NORTHWESTWARD WITH IMPROVEMENT ON SATURDAY. ITS BEEN
TOUGH TO SHAKE THIS STRATOCU LEVEL CLOUDINESS PATTERN.

FOR TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ADVANCING IN FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AIRPORTS ARE STILL HEADING INTO THE TERMINALS. WE BRING MVFR CIG
POTENTIAL FROM THE GET GO AT KABE AND KRDG (HIER CONFIDENCE
OVERNIGHT) AND BRING IT DOWN TO THE KPHL METRO AIRPORTS AFTER 05Z.
WE LEAVE KACY AND KMIV VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHWEST. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.

ON SATURDAY, PREDICTING THE MVFR CIG TO BECOME SCATTERED DURING
THE MORNING FROM THE KPHL METRO AIRPORTS NWWD WITH A CIRRUS CIG
ABOVE. KACY AND KMIV NOT EXPECTING A MVFR CIG. IT WILL BE A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
IS FAVORED, BUT SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS,
PROBABLY PREDOMINATELY LESS THAN 6 KNOTS AT SOME OF THE MORE
RURAL AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA AND SHSN.
WEDNESDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST. SMWHT
GUST NW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVERHEAD. SEAS ARE
CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT BUT THEY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ALSO.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR BUILDING SEAS.
WEDNESDAY...GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...AMC/GIGI
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/GIGI
MARINE...AMC/FRANCK








000
FXUS61 KPHI 192051
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THRU MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE ON MONDAY
AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVE THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION
BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY/...
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD DECK THAT COVERED THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS
ERODED CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTN. CLOUD COVER PERSISTS OVER DELMARVA
AND OVER NWRN NJ AND ADJ PA. GIVEN THE NWLY LOW-LVL FLOW...THINK THE
CLOUDS DOWN SOUTH WILL CONT TO ERODE WHILE THE NRN AREA WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPS IN CLEARING AREAS HAVE RESPONDED
ONLY SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE LOW DEC SUN ANGLE.

FOR TONIGHT...NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS
CANADIAN LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRES MOVES CLOSED WITH
RESULTING RELAXED PRES GRAD. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT COOLING WITH OVERNIGHT MINS GENLY 5
TO 10 DEGS COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TO 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER CANADA SHIFTS EWD FROM
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. A RIDGE AXIS IS FCST TO EXTEND SWD THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION RESULTING IN ONLY LIGHT NLY WINDS. SOME LOW-LVL
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BUT HARD TO SAY HOW EXTENSIVE ANY LOW CLOUDS MAY BE. THE
12-KM NAM SHOWS A THIN LOW CLOUD LAYER DEVELOPING DURG THE DAY BUT
HIGHER-RES ARW/NMM AND THE GFS DO NOT. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS ALSO ASSOCD WITH THE SHRTWV NOW MOVING ENEWD OUT OF THE SRN
PLAINS...HWVR POPS REMAIN NEAR ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH.
* SNOW POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE MONDAY
  THRU EARLY TUESDAY.
* POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INCREASING ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

OVERVIEW...

MID-LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NOAM BEGINS TO DISLODGE IN RESPONSE
JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...CARVING
OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY EARLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
LEADS TO INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY MAY GENERATE
ENOUGH LIFT ALONG WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AS MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. RIDGING
THEN BUILDS IN SO FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW-PRESSURE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
MODELS BRING QPF NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT THE BEST LIFT IS FOCUSED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THIS AREA...AND THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH PER
12Z UKMET MODEL. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH ULTIMATE TRACK.

WEDNESDAY...
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A BRIEF RESPITE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.
THEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED...LEADING TO A MERIDIONAL FLOW ALONG
THE EAST COAST...WITH THE ENTIRE COLUMN EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA FAVORING A RAIN EVENT. THERE ARE SEVERAL
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR HEAVY RAIN. IN PARTICULAR...DEEP
GULF MOISTURE...LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...MID-LEVEL PVA...AND
THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A 140 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL JET JUST NORTH.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

THU AND FRI...
LOW-PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC AND HIGH-PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND
THERE COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SMWHAT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BUT
SHOULD DIE DOWN SOME BY SUNSET AS THE SFC COOLS/DECOUPLES AND THE
LARGER SCALE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. THE EARLIER LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED AND ATTM
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS EXENSIVE AS THIS MORNING. WINDS
ON SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT NORTHERLY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
OVER HEAD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA AND SHSN.
WEDNESDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN RA AND FG.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST. SMWHT
GUST NW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVERHEAD. SEAS ARE
CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT BUT THEY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ALSO.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR BUILDING SEAS.
WEDNESDAY...GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...AMC/FRANCK
MARINE...AMC/FRANCK







000
FXUS61 KPHI 192051
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THRU MONDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE ON MONDAY
AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MOVE THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION
BY THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS PROJECTED TO BUILD IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY/...
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD DECK THAT COVERED THE AREA THIS MORNING HAS
ERODED CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTN. CLOUD COVER PERSISTS OVER DELMARVA
AND OVER NWRN NJ AND ADJ PA. GIVEN THE NWLY LOW-LVL FLOW...THINK THE
CLOUDS DOWN SOUTH WILL CONT TO ERODE WHILE THE NRN AREA WILL BE MORE
PERSISTENT INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPS IN CLEARING AREAS HAVE RESPONDED
ONLY SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE LOW DEC SUN ANGLE.

FOR TONIGHT...NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS
CANADIAN LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND HIGH PRES MOVES CLOSED WITH
RESULTING RELAXED PRES GRAD. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT COOLING WITH OVERNIGHT MINS GENLY 5
TO 10 DEGS COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TO 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER CANADA SHIFTS EWD FROM
ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. A RIDGE AXIS IS FCST TO EXTEND SWD THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION RESULTING IN ONLY LIGHT NLY WINDS. SOME LOW-LVL
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BUT HARD TO SAY HOW EXTENSIVE ANY LOW CLOUDS MAY BE. THE
12-KM NAM SHOWS A THIN LOW CLOUD LAYER DEVELOPING DURG THE DAY BUT
HIGHER-RES ARW/NMM AND THE GFS DO NOT. THERE WILL BE SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS ALSO ASSOCD WITH THE SHRTWV NOW MOVING ENEWD OUT OF THE SRN
PLAINS...HWVR POPS REMAIN NEAR ZERO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY NORTH.
* SNOW POSSIBLE NORTHWEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE MONDAY
  THRU EARLY TUESDAY.
* POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INCREASING ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

OVERVIEW...

MID-LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NOAM BEGINS TO DISLODGE IN RESPONSE
JET ENERGY MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND...CARVING
OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MS VALLEY EARLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH
LEADS TO INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE TUESDAY THRU WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.

DETAILS...

SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY MAY GENERATE
ENOUGH LIFT ALONG WITH MARGINAL MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO PRODUCE
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AS MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. RIDGING
THEN BUILDS IN SO FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE LOW-PRESSURE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
MODELS BRING QPF NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. THERMAL PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...BUT THE BEST LIFT IS FOCUSED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THIS AREA...AND THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK FURTHER TO THE SOUTH PER
12Z UKMET MODEL. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH ULTIMATE TRACK.

WEDNESDAY...
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A BRIEF RESPITE BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.
THEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON WED...LEADING TO A MERIDIONAL FLOW ALONG
THE EAST COAST...WITH THE ENTIRE COLUMN EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING ACROSS THE CWA FAVORING A RAIN EVENT. THERE ARE SEVERAL
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR HEAVY RAIN. IN PARTICULAR...DEEP
GULF MOISTURE...LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT...MID-LEVEL PVA...AND
THE RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT OF A 140 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL JET JUST NORTH.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

THU AND FRI...
LOW-PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC AND HIGH-PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AND
THERE COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SMWHAT GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS BUT
SHOULD DIE DOWN SOME BY SUNSET AS THE SFC COOLS/DECOUPLES AND THE
LARGER SCALE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES. LIGHT NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. THE EARLIER LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED AND ATTM
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS EXENSIVE AS THIS MORNING. WINDS
ON SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT NORTHERLY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES
OVER HEAD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA AND SHSN.
WEDNESDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN RA AND FG.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT LEAST. SMWHT
GUST NW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES MOVES OVERHEAD. SEAS ARE
CURRENTLY RUNNING 2 TO 3 FT BUT THEY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ALSO.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR BUILDING SEAS.
WEDNESDAY...GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...AMC/FRANCK
MARINE...AMC/FRANCK








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