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000
FXUS61 KPHI 290119
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
919 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A Bermuda high will maintain very warm weather with generally
southwest winds over our area through Monday. Low pressure
associated with Tropical Storm Bonnie should remain well to our
south. However, moisture from this system will be drawn northward
Sunday into Monday. High pressure will build in Tuesday through
Thursday, then a frontal system is forecast to approach from the
west late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
High pressure anchored well off the Mid Atlantic coast will continue
to dominate our weather through tonight.

With the loss of day time heating, earlier convection has
dissipated, so removed mention of showers through the remainder
of the evening. Clear to partly cloudy through the night with the
potential for local fog to develop. This may have the most
opportunity where earlier rainfall occurred across the far
northern areas. Otherwise, it will be a warm night.

The temperature and dew point grids were adjusted based on the
latest obs, then the lamp/lav guidance was blended in. The pops have
been adjusted based on radar trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Sunday will start out dry, but moisture associated with Tropical
Storm Bonnie will move northward during the day. Across the southern
areas, showers could move in late morning to early afternoon, but
most areas will hold off until later in the afternoon. The northern
areas may remain dry through the balance of the day. Once the
showers start, some locally heavy rain may occur given increasing PW
values especially across the Delmarva. Given the idea of some more
cloudiness, temperatures are forecast to be a bit cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
It looks like the most significant weather will be occurring at
the beginning of the long term period, i.e., Sunday night into
Monday. At that time rather deep moisture, PWAT up to 2 inches,
from Tropical Storm Bonnie is forecast to move across the area
with widespread showers and T-storms. Although CAPE and UVV seem
to be rather limited, believe some areas could see 1 to 2 inches,
depending on how the convection sets up. Locally higher amounts
are possible. Heaviest rain should occur overnight Sun night into
Mon morning, then shift SE and gradually decrease through
afternoon and evening of Memorial Day.

The pattern changes some from Mon into Tue/Wed as the upper trof
currently over the central US lifts NE and suppresses the East
Coast upper ridge. This results in more westerly winds and drier
air. However, some remnants of the tropical circulation are
forecast to remain invof east NC through mid-week and could
result in some showers well S of PHL. This is rather uncertain and
is not strongly represented in the PoP/Wx grids.

Surface high pressure is forecast to build SE out of Canada and
across New England by Wed. This will result in onshore flow with
slightly cooler (but near normal) daytime temps and somewhat higher
RH. Another shortwave trof and associated frontal system is forecast
to approach the area on Fri/Sat. The latest GFS and ECMWF are
somewhat similar with this feature although the GFS is a bit more
amplified. The forecast reflects increased chance for showers and
diurnal T-storms for this time.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...Mostly VFR conditions expected through 06Z. After 06Z,
fog should develop at most terminals overnight resulting in MVFR
visibilities. It is possible local IFR occurs, however confidence
is not high. Southerly winds diminishing to 5 knots or less.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR visibilities to start for some terminals due to
fog, otherwise mainly VFR. Clouds increase from south to north as
moisture from Tropical Storm Bonnie moves northward, with ceilings
nearing MVFR toward evening for some areas. While some showers or
thunderstorms should develop especially in the afternoon, these may
be mainly west and south of KPHL. South to southwest winds up to 10
knots, although turning south-southeast at KACY, KILG and KMIV.

OUTLOOK...
Sunday Night and Monday...MVFR to IFR conditions are likely in
low clouds, fog, and +SHRA. Sustained winds mostly under 10 kt.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions. Sustained winds
mostly under 10 kt, with some daytime gusts 10 to 15 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are anticipated during the near and short
term periods.

OUTLOOK...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through early to mid-week. Some
reduced VSBYs are possible in rain and fog Sun night through Mon
night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is some potential for heavy rain and localized flooding from
Sunday night through Monday. This is due to an influx of tropical
moisture from Tropical Storm Bonnie. PWATs are forecast to be near 2
inches, well above normal for late May. Depending on how the heavier
showers and t-storms set up, some locations could receive 2 inches
or more of rainfall. This may result in localized flooding. The
potential for heavy rain was added to the forecast.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...AMC/Gorse
Near Term...Gorse/Johnson
Short Term...Gorse/Nierenberg
Long Term...AMC
Aviation...AMC/Gorse/Johnson
Marine...AMC/Nierenberg
Hydrology...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 282012
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
412 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A Bermuda-high pattern will maintain warm weather with generally
southwest winds over the area through Monday. Low pressure
associated with Tropical Depression Two, forecast to become
Tropical Storm Bonnie, should remain well to our south. However,
moisture from this system will be drawn north over our area
leading to widespread showers and a few thunderstorms from Sunday
into Monday. High pressure with mild but drier air will build in
Tuesday through Thursday of next week. Another frontal system is
forecast to approach from the west late in the week bring an
increased chance for afternoon/evening showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
High pres off the ern seaboard will continue to pump hot and
moderately humid air into the region for the balance of today.
Some diurnal thunderstorms have developed over the higher terrain
over nern PA and nrn NJ and some additional development is psbl
thru sunset. However, areal coverage shud genly be confined to n
of I-78. Otherwise, a warm night is in store.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Sun will start out dry, but moisture assocd with what is
currently Tropical Depression Two will move nwd durg the day. Acrs
the srn areas, rain could move in late mrng erly aftn, but most
areas will hold off until later in the aftn. Nrn areas may remain
dry thru the balance of the day. Once the rain starts, it cud be
hvy at times, especially acrs the Delmarva.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
It looks like the most significant weather will be occurring at
the beginning of the long term period, i.e., Sunday night into
Monday. At that time rather deep moisture - PWAT up to 2 inches -
from current TD #2 is forecast to move across the area with
widespread showers and T-storms. Although CAPE and UVV seem to be
rather limited, believe some areas could see 1 to 2 inches,
depending on how the convection sets up. Locally higher amounts
are possible. Heaviest rain should occur overnight Sun night into
Mon morning, then shift SE and gradually decrease through
afternoon and evening of Memorial Day.

The pattern changes some from Mon into Tue/Wed as the uppper trof
currently over the central US lifts NE and suppresses the East Coast
upper ridge. This results in more westerly winds and drier air.
However, some remnants of the tropical circulation are forecasst to
remain invof east NC through mid-week and could result in some
showers well S of PHL. This is rather uncertain and is not strongly
represented in the PoP/Wx grids.

Surface high pressure is forecast to build SE out of Canada and
across New England by Wed. This will result in onshore flow with
slightly cooler (but near normal) daytime temps and somewhat higher
RH. Another shortwave trof and associated frontal system is forecast
to approach the area on Fri/Sat. The latest GFS and ECMWF are
somewhat similar with this feature although the GFS is a bit more
amplified. The forecast reflects increeased chance for showers and
diurnal T-storms for this time.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conds are genly expected acrs the region durg the taf pd. The
guid is split on some MVFR conds overnight into the erly mrng
hours tonight into Sun, so for now am playing a more optimistic
fcst. However, it is psbl that there cud be IFR conds if the more
pessimistic guid is correct. Regardless, VFR conds are back after
daybreak Sun. Clouds will gradually increase and lower from s to n
as moisture from what is now Tropical Depression Two moves nwd.
However, any rain from this sys looks to impact mainly KACY, KMIV,
and KILG by 29/00Z. Wind shud be s to swly under 10 kts both today
and Sun and light or calm tonight.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday Night and Monday...MVFR to IFR conditions are likely in
low clouds, fog, and +SHRA. Sustained winds mostly under 10 kt.

Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions. Sustained winds
mostly under 10 kt, with some daytime gusts 10 to 15 kt.


&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines are anticipated durg the nr and short term
pds.

OUTLOOK...

Sub-SCA conditions are expected through early to mid-week. Some
reduced VSBYs are possible in rain and fog Sun night through Mon
night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There is some potential for heavy rain and flooding from Sunday
night through Monday. This is due to an influx of tropical
moisture from TS Bonnie. PWATs are forecast to be near 2 inches,
well above normal for late May. Depending on how the heavier
showers and t-storms set up, some locations could receive 2 inches
or more of rainfall. This may result in localized or small-stream
flooding.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly temperature at Philadelphia continues to project to
drop down to only 1 degree below normal from the 4 below normal of
several days prior to this spell of warm weather.

Near record warmth anticipated this afternoon at

ABE Record high 93 IN 1941
RDG Record high 92 IN 1977, 1941, 1914


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...AMC
Near Term...Nierenberg
Short Term...Nierenberg
Long Term...AMC/Franck
Aviation...AMC/Nierenberg
Marine...AMC/Nierenberg
Hydrology...
Climate...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 280822
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
422 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure anchored near Bermuda will slowly lose its grip on our
region over the weekend. Tropical Depression Two is forecast to
become Tropical Storm Bonnie, and make landfall near South Carolina
Sunday night, then interact with a cold front moving through our
area Monday night. Bonnie is anticipated to remain near the
Carolinas through the middle of the week, as high pressure over
Atlantic Canada extends southward over our region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Prior to sunrise: patchy fog and haze near sunrise...thickest fog
probably nw NJ to the lehigh valley. otherwise patchy cu and
cirrus early this morning. of interest...dewpoints are several
degrees cooler all along the mid atlantic coast when compared to
24 hours ago! light south to southwest wind.

Today...Issuing an SPS for first heat wave and associated modest
heat related risk for early season warmth.

Expecting hottest day of this late May warm spell today and 1-3F
warmer than ydy in e PA and most of NJ...even a degree or so warmer
in De and MD E shore than ydy.

Early season heat wave (Day 3 of the minimum three consecutive
90f or greater required) is at hand for PHL/PNE/ABE/WRI while
other locations nearby in our CWA have been 89-90F the past two
days and today will be day 3, but cannot officially note them as
heat wave potential inclusive (GED/REG/TTN). So, after any early
morning low clouds/fog/haze...a sunny or mostly sunny day with
the forecast likely verifying above any of the warmest available
guidance be it bias corrected, or individual NCEP op MOS, super
and national blends (both blends 3-4F cooler than our official
fcst). Best of the automated guidance is the adjust MET but have
fcst warmer than that as well.

16c at 850mb with a south-southwest wind gusty to 20 mph this
afternoon should allow temps to rise to 1-3F above yesterdays
values (especially with slightly lower dewpoints), at least for e
PA and interior NJ. Heat index 90-95 for NJ and e PA and maybe
only near 90 DE/E MD. No advy but issuing an SPS. Synoptic Health
Warning Network has been highlighting early season concerns for
the I95 corridor the past several days. so while officially we
dont reach the HI early season criteria of 96 for the ILG-=PHL-TTN
metro corridor or 100 HI elsewhere, we think its the first heat
wave of the season for parts of this area and day3 and probably
a daily cumulative toll on health for those elderly or children
with respiratory ailments and no air conditioned relief.

Not anticipating convection this afternoon even in the pwat axis
of 1.5" near and north of I-78...northern portion of our CWA.
There is no known lift mechanism. Suppose something isolated can
develop but with suppressant ridging at mid levels (500mb) today
and lack of excessive moisture (PWAT of 1.5" for a 570 1000-500mb
thickness is not excessive), therefore it seems difficult to
develop afternoon convection. Have a small pop up north but
convection i do not think is weather story for today.

Max temps again 10-16F above normal with a general 50 50 blend of
the 00z/28 GFS/NAM MOS guidance except heavy reliance on the
warmer NAM BL and 2M temps, along with the overzealous RGEM and
HRRR warmth but corroborated by the GGEM and ECMWF 2m temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
Fair and not quite as warm as this morning because the PWAT lowers
northward from 1.5 to 1 inch tonight (also means lower dewpoints)
with minimum temps probably 6 to 12F above normal and a light
south to southwest wind. It may be hazy with patchy fog possible
after midnight?, primarily in the countryside. Lower dewpoints
reduce my concern for fog late tonight. In fact clouds from the
leading edge of nwwd moving tropical moisture may be arriving
over the Delmarva early Sunday morning.

Meanwhile, Any evening showers along and north of I-80 in NNJ/ne
PA quickly end during the evening.

This part of the fcst was a 50 50 blend of the 00z/28 GFS/NAM MOS
guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The mid-level flow on Sunday features the northern stream along
the US/Canadian border, with a rex block off the southeast US
coast. The cutoff upper low associated with this block
telleconnects well with another cutoff low over the desert
southwest. This block will serve as the key steering mechanism for
what is forecast to become Tropical Storm Bonnie. A couple of
shortwaves in the northern stream will then be paramount in
determining what becomes of the blocking pattern off the southeast
coast and the remnants of Bonnie. At this time, a lead shortwave
moving through the Great Lakes Sunday night and Monday is
expected to draw a substantial amount of moisture northward along
the lee of the Appalachians, with the synoptic setup favorable for
a PRE (Predecessor Rain Event). A second, more vigorous shortwave
digging in the upper Mississippi Valley by mid-week should induce
strong enough height falls across the eastern conus to eject the
closed-mid level low and the remnants of Bonnie gradually
northeastward.

On Sunday, the mid-level ridge axis and associated subsidence moves
over the region early in the day, with increasing cloudiness in its
wake. Expect a warm and increasingly humid day with high temps in
the middle 80s to near 90. With cloudiness increasing from the
south, as well as a southeast flow in place, the warmest readings
will be in northern NJ and the Lehigh Valley.

Sunday night into Monday...Confidence is increasing for a heavy
rainfall event, particularly near and northwest of the I-95
corridor, as Tropical Storm Bonnie interacts with an approaching
front (see the hydrology section below for more details). Also,
there will be the potential for thunder as well, with sufficient
instability present. Gradual improvement is expected by Monday
afternoon.

Tuesday thru Thursday...Fair weather is anticipated at this time.

Friday...A cold front may approach the region with a chance of
showers/thundershowers.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12z...VFR with MVFR vsby possible toward 10z in haze or
patchy fog. Small chc IFR stratus fog vcnty KRDG/KABE toward 10z.
Light south to southwest wind.

After 12z...any sub VFR vsby improves to VFR by 15z with only sct
clouds aoa 5000 ft and a south to southwest wind gusty to 18 kt
during mid afternoon. no convection expected at the TAF sites
though not impossible to see a brief mid afternoon shower vcnty
KABE/KRDG.

Tonight...VFR with possible patchy MVFR vsby in haze or patchy
fog toward 10z sunday. Light south to southwest wind.

OUTLOOK...
VFR, with the exception of Sunday night thru Monday night, when
MVFR is possible in low clouds, fog, and +SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines anticipated through tonight.

Winds were gusty 20-30 kt for a time this past Friday evening
(44065 and Weather Flow sensors) along the coasts and this drove
seas upward to near 5 ft at 44065. That was stronger than we expected
24 hours ago. The southerly flow and associated wind wave have
subsided.

So in essence, a south to southwest wind occasionally gusty to
between 20-22 kt into tonight with Atlantic coastal waters seas
2-4ft and De Bay 1-2 Ft.

OUTLOOK...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria during
the Sunday thru Wednesday time frame. Some maritime fog is
possible Sunday night.

RIP CURRENTS: We will probably cautiously forecast a LOW risk
today but LOW does not mean NO risk!!! For safety swim in the
presence of lifeguards. there will be an incoming 2-3 foot mixed s
to se swell today of varying periodicity 4 to 9 seconds. A cooling
southerly wind will develop this afternoon with gustiness possibly
enhancing water buildup behind the sandbars which should mean an
enhanced low risk. Am concerned about early season heat and about
swimmers in unguarded areas. We do not want any news headlines
about rip current fatalities. These fatalities are all
preventable. They tend to occur in the younger male population,
after hours unguarded locations. Its not worth the risk.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As tropical storm Bonnie nears the South Carolina coast and a cold
front approaches the Ohio Valley, the synoptic ingredients will
become favorable for a PRE (Predecessor Rain Event): the lee of the
Appalachians will be within the RRQ of a 100 knot upper level jet
just downstream of the mid-level trough axis. This area will also be
on the northwest fringe of a deep tropical moisture plume,
coincident with a low-level theta-e axis, which will be supported by
a surface trough/weak low pressure. The models have increasingly
advertised this scenario over the past 24 to 36 hours, and have
trended precipitation estimates upward accordingly. Thankfully, this
system will be progressive, with a 12 to 18 hour period of rainfall.
Given the tropical moisture (Precipitable Water values near 2.00" ~
2-3 Standard Deviations above normal) and a southeast low-level jet
impinging upon the terrain, some heavy rainfall rates are likely.
The heaviest rainfall should center on Sunday night into at least
Monday morning, with 1 to 2 inches possible. There is the potential
for minor urban and poor drainage flooding, and perhaps some small
streams as well.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The monthly temperature at Philadelphia continues to project to
drop down to 1 below normal from the 4 below normal of several
days prior to this spell of warm weather.

near record warmth anticipated this afternoon at

MPO record high 86 in 2012
ABE Record high 93 IN 1941
RDG Record high 92 IN 1977, 1941, 1914

The KMPO temperature sensor was fixed yesterday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Franck
Near Term...Drag
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...Franck
Aviation...Drag/Franck
Marine...Drag/Franck
Hydrology...
Climate...422a





000
FXUS61 KPHI 280504
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
104 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure across the mid-Atlantic region will maintain
generally fair and warm weather through most of the weekend. Moisture
from the remnants of a tropical system to our south may reach the
area Sunday night and interact with a weak frontal system to produce
showers and thunderstorms. More high pressure and dry but continued
warm weather are expected through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM ESTF: No major changes overnight. Temps and dews pretty
close to the hourly projections through midnight. A fair warm
summerlike night with a little more wind on-going than expected
24 hours ago (s-sw 5-10 mph). Patchy stratus/fog expected portions
of e PA toward dawn, particularly near KABE and possibly nw NJ
also. We reset the DIX STA/STP and expect to be in clear air VCP32
for the remainder of the night.

Saturday...Am expecting hottest day of this late May warm spell
and 1-2F warmer than ydy in e PA and interior NJ. Early season
heat wave (Day 3 of the minimum three consecutive 90f or greater
required) is at hand for PHL/PNE/ABE/WRI while other locations
nearby in our CWA have been 89-90F the past two days and today
will be day 3, but cannot officially note them as heat wave
potential inclusive (GED/REG/TTN). So, after any early morning low
clouds/fog/haze...a sunny day with the forecast likely verifying
above any of the warmest available guidance be it bias corrected,
or individual NCEP op MOS, super and national blends. Will discuss
the details in the 3am update. Bottom line...16c at 850 with a
south-southwest wind gusty to 20 mph this afternoon should allow
temps to rise to 1-2F above yesterdays values, at least for e PA
and interior NJ. Heat index 90-95 for NJ and e PA and maybe only
near 90 DE/E MD. may or may not issue advy?

Not anticipating convection this Saturday afternoon even in the
pwat axis of 1.5" near and north of I-78...northern portion of
our CWA. There is no known lift mechanism. Suppose something
isolated can develop but with suppressant ridging at mid levels
(500mb) today and lack of excessive moisture (PWAT of 1.5" for a
570 1000-500mb thickness is not excessive), therefore it seems
difficult to develop afternoon convection.

Max temps again 10-15F above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
Fair and not quite as warm as this morning because the PWAT lowers
northward from 1.5 to 1 inch tonight (also means lower dewpoints)
with minimum temps probably 5 to 10F above normal and a light
south to southwest wind. May be hazy with patchy fog expected
late, primarily in the countryside. Any evening showers along and
north of I-80 in NNJ/ne PA quickly end during the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The current summer-like weather pattern over the mid-Atlantic
region is expected to continue through the extended forecast
period. Temperatures will be somewhat above normal and
precipitation will be mainly in the form of convective rain
showers and t-storms. Surface and upper-level features affecting
the area will remain relatively weak. One uncertainty at this time
is how much effect we will see from the tropical/sub-tropical
system now off the SE Atlantic coast.

Moisture from tropical depression 2 NE of the Bahamas is forecast
to move N into the mid-Atlantic on Sunday with an increasing
chance of showers and T-storms by afternoon. Showers and storms
are forecast to continue Sunday night into Monday as a weak
frontal system moves into the area from the NW. PWATS are forecast
to be near 2 inches over the area so some heavy downpours and
possible flooding can be expected. Clouds and precip will result
in milder daytime temps on Monday.

By Tuesday somewhat drier air is expected to push in from the W
and decrease the chances for precip as an upper-level trough moves
by to the N. Daytime temps will recover back into the 80s as there
is not much change in air mass with the with the associated surface
front. Wed and Thu should be mainly fair with high pressure
building in from the N/NE and low-level winds off the cool
Atlantic. Both the latest GFS and ECMWF suggest another frontal
system approaching from the W or NW by next Fri, with increased
chances for precip.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12z...VFR with MVFR vsby possible toward 10z in haze or
patchy fog. Small chc IFR stratus fog vcnty KRDG/KABE toward 10z.
Light south to southwest wind.

After 12z...any sub VFR vsby improves to VFR by 15z with only sct
clouds aoa 5000 ft and a south to southwest wind gusty to 18 kt
during mid afternoon. no convection expected at the TAF sites
though not impossible to see an afternoon shower vcnty KABE/KRDG.

Tonight...VFR with possible patchy MVFR vsby in haze or patchy
fog toward 10z sunday. Light south to southwest wind.

OUTLOOK...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period, except
MVFR possible Sunday night thru Monday night in showers and
T-storms.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines anticipated through Saturday night.

Winds were gusty 20-30 kt for a time this past Friday evening
(44065 and Weather Flow sites) along the coasts and this drove
seas upward to near 5 ft at 44065. This was stronger than we
expected 24 hours ago. The southerly flow and associated wind
wave are subsiding now.

So in essence, a south to southwest wind occasionally gusty to
near 20 kt through Saturday night with Atlantic waters seas 2-4ft
and De Bay 1-2 Ft.

OUTLOOK...

Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria during the
Sunday thru Wednesday time frame. Poor visibility is possible
Sunday night through Monday night in showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
We`ll be adding considerable information to this section between
4 and 5 am Saturday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...AMC/Johnson
Near Term...Drag 104A
Short Term...Drag 104A
Long Term...AMC
Aviation...AMC/Drag 104A
Marine...AMC/Drag 104A
Climate...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 271328
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
928 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the middle Atlantic coast will settle over our
region through the weekend, gradually giving way to a cold front,
that is expected to move through our area Tuesday. Canadian high
pressure is expected to settle over our region by mid week, while
a persistent area of low pressure lurks off the southeast coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure off the coast will continue to influence our
weather today. The circulation around the high will keep our
region in a southerly flow of very warm and humid air. We are
expecting a good deal of sunshine for today even with the
development of afternoon cumulus. Maximum temperatures around 90
degrees are anticipated except in the elevated terrain and along
the coast.

The focus for the greatest instability in our vicinity is
forecast to develop from around Lancaster County and Berks County
up into the Poconos during the afternoon. Mixed layer CAPE values
may rise into the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range there. As a result, we
anticipate that any convective development this afternoon will be
in that area. The potential for rain will decrease to less than 15
percent toward the coast.

Dew point readings will remain in the 60s for this afternoon.
Precipitable water values should be around 1.6 to 1.7 inches. The
steering winds will be relatively light so any thunderstorms that
develop should be slow moving leading to the potential for locally
heavy rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
Any late day convection should diminish and end by midnight.
Otherwise fair and mild. Looks like haze and/or patchy fog early
tomorrow morning with the fog in your typical spots...northwest NJ
and also vcnty KRDG and KMIV. Min temps about 10 to 15F above
normal.

Forecast basis: a 50 50 blend of the 00z/27 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The main story will continue to be above average temperatures
thru Sunday with high temperatures near 90 degrees, as well as
uncomfortable humidity levels into early next week. Temps will
remain above average into the middle of next week

The main uncertainty will be the interaction between an
approaching cold front early next week and an early season
tropical/sub-tropical system modeled to develop in the Bahamas.
The models continue the trend of drawing a plume of moisture
northward along the east coast, with PW values nearing 2.00
inches, or 2 to 3 Standard Deviations above normal by Monday. With
the approach of a cool front and weak steering currents aloft,
there is the potential for heavy downpours on Monday. Otherwise,
there is a chance of diurnally driven showers and thundershowers
Saturday and Sunday. For Saturday, this activity should be focused
northwest of I-95, while Delmarva may see an increase in activity
by late Sunday.

A cold frontal passage is anticipated Tuesday, with a drying
trend for Wednesday and Thursday. But with low pressure off the
southeast US coast, this front may get hung up close to our
region, which would lead to a more pessimistic forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with sct-bkn aoa 5000 ft. South to southwest wind
gusting around 15-18 kt during the afternoon. Chance of a shower
or tstm but not in the TAFS till more convinced of nearby passage
of any convection. For now we have prob30 of a mdt afternoon
shower in KRDG and KABE.

Tonight...VFR to start . Any evening convection diminishes and
ends early and am thinking mostly north of our TAF sites. Patchy
IFR conditions in stratus/fog anticipated near 09z/28 vcnty
KABE/KRDG, otherwise a bit hazy early Saturday morning. Light
south to southwest wind.

OUTLOOK...
Predominantly VFR during the day through the period, with MVFR
possible Sunday night thru Monday night.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines through tonight.

Southerly flow persists...at times gusty to 15 or 20 kt. Seas
generally 1-3 ft. More conservative NWPS wave heights were used
for this 330AM forecast.

OUTLOOK...
Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA criteria during
the Saturday thru Tuesday time frame. Some maritime fog is
possible Sunday night.

RIP CURRENTS: Issued low risk for the formation of dangerous rip
currents except for Monmouth County - moderate. Gusty southerly
winds to around 20 mph late in the day may enhance the rip current
risk elsewhere along the NJ coast.

Warmer than normal temperatures, appears to be one part of the
recipe for heightened surf zone danger. Another part: unguarded
beaches. Be smart and safe. Unless you`re an accomplished
swimmer... unguarded beach swimming is ill advised.

The water temperatures were still only in the lower 60s southern
NJ and Delaware Atlantic coasts, and the upper 50s along much of
the northern NJ coast.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The record maximum temperature today at allentown is 91, set in
1991 and 1965. It should be near record this afternoon. All other
record maximum temperatures in our county warning area (CWA) for
May 27 appear out of reach.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Synopsis...Franck
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...Drag
Long Term...Franck
Aviation...Drag/Franck
Marine...Drag/Franck
Climate...Drag





000
FXUS61 KPHI 270437
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1237 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure is anchored over the western Atlantic through this
weekend while low pressure between Bermuda and the Bahamas moves
northwest toward South Carolina. A cold front will organize over
the Great Lakes early next week passing through our region by the
middle of the week. The low pressure system near the southeast
United States coast may linger there most of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM ESTF: Overnight...variable cloudiness. Showers have increased
in coverage and intensity since about 1150 pm over east central PA
and now have 40-50 pop for sct shower coverage with slight chance
of a tstm over much of e central and ne PA into nw NJ through about
3AM. PWAT increasing considerably in this weak waa pattern and so
showers may easily dump .2 to .4 inches in 15 minutes on a few
locations. Otherwise temps and dews modified somewhat overnight...
interestingly enough, lowered dews near I95. Temps well above
normal...mins 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Light south wind.

Friday...Very warm and more humid with a potential for D2 of 90F
temps at KABE/KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KACY/KGED/KESN. Depends on how much
sunshine. Best chance for 90F temps is near and north of I-78
possibly extending down to KPHL? Airmass is as warm as ydy with
higher dewpoints. More cloud cover may make it more difficult to
maximize heat potential. South to southwest wind with afternoon
gusts 15 mph. Convection: Possible..more details at 330 am or
sooner. PWAT about 1.7" for a 571 1000-5000 thickness.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
Fair and mild. Any convection should diminish and end by midnight. Much
more detail at 330 am.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Saturday through Sunday Night: High pressure will be firmly in place
over the region. Subsistence from the high pressure will prevent
normal pop-up afternoon thunderstorm formation both days except in
the higher terrain areas in the Southern Poconos and NW NJ. A
gradual tick upward with humidity is expected, making it feel even
more like summer. High temperatures will likely be a couple degrees
warmer than met/mav with overnight lows climbing due to the
increased humidity.

Memorial Day: A low pressure system is likely to be located just off
the Southeast United States coastline. With a broad mid-level ridge
just offshore moisture is likely to be transported northward along
the eastern seaboard. Some uncertainty is present with this low
potentially become tropical. The National Hurricane Center currently
has a 70% chance of this forming into a sub-tropical or tropical
system between today and early next week.

While any tropical impacts would be well south of the region, the
moisture interaction with lift along an approaching cold frontal
boundary. This will lead to a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms with a heavy rainfall threat. PW values are also
modeled to approach 2 inches along with a modeled long-skinny CAPE
profile both also suggesting the prospects for heavy downpours with
thunderstorms. Temperatures will likely be kept down as well due to
cloud cover and thunderstorms.

Monday night through Tuesday night: The cold frontal boundary will
likely continue to be close to the region and serve as a focal point
for additional scattered showers and thunderstorms, potentially
moving through by Tuesday. With the more scattered coverage of the
showers and storms, daytime temperatures will rebound a bit on
Tuesday after a muggy start.

Wednesday and Thursday: Another low pressure system and cold front
will move into the Central Plains with our region in the warm sector
with high pressure to the northeast. However, mid level temperatures
look cooler than with the warm-up this weekend. Forecast close to
WPC guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Early this morning through 12z...VFR with scattered showers through
about 06z or 07z vcnty KRDG/KABE. Light south to southwest wind.

Today after 12z...VFR with sct-bkn aoa 5000 ft. South to southwest
wind gusting around 15 kt during the afternoon. Chance of a shower
or tstm but not in the TAFS till more convinced of nearby passage
of any convection.

Tonight...VFR. Light south to southwest wind.

OUTLOOK...

Saturday through Sunday: Mainly VFR, southerly winds 5-10 knots
with gusts around 15 knots Saturday and Sunday afternoons.
Isolated thunderstorms possible for KABE.

Sunday night through Monday night: MVFR/IFR ceilings possible.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms, the highest chance of
thunderstorms is on Monday. Southerly winds up to 15 knots.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, winds under 15 knots. An isolated
thunderstorm is possible.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines through Friday night.

Southerly flow persists...at times gusty to 15 or 20 kt. Seas generally
1-3 ft. More conservative NWPS wave heights will probably be used
for the 330AM forecast.


OUTLOOK...
No marine headlines anticipated.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Drag/Gaines
Near Term...Drag 1237A
Short Term...Drag/Iovino 1237A
Long Term...Gaines
Aviation...Drag/Gaines 1237A
Marine...Drag/Gaines 1237A





000
FXUS61 KPHI 260642
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
242 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Our area will remain on the western periphery of an area of high
pressure located over the ocean off the east coast through the end
of this week into the weekend. A backdoor cold front may approach
the area from the north this weekend, but should end up remaining
to our north. An area of low pressure moving into New England early
next week is forecast to bring a cold front across our area around
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Prior to sunrise. Fair (variable cirrus). Light southwest or calm
wind.

After sunrise...A second mostly sunny very warm day is ahead with
a few locations in our forecast area likely nudging 90F for the
first time this year including KABE, KRDG, KPNE, KSMQ, KGED but
mainly northward from near PHL along and west of the NJT to KABE
and KRDG. Wind this afternoon south to southwest gusting to 15 mph.
A midday ocean influenced south southeast sea breeze will eventually
lower the near 80F late morning max temps significantly by mid
afternoon. Otherwise, high temps in the interior around 10-13F degrees
above normal. Pops withdrawn from e PA late today and it appears any
showers should develop after 6 pm there, if at all. Not much lift
mechanism despite weak instability burst.

Fcst basis: generally a 50 50 blend of the 00z/26 GFS/NAM MOS
guidance. Have checked all 00z/26 MAX temps tools from MET/MAV,
BIAS adjust of these as well as National and Super blend and basically
raised the highest of the warmest guidance away from the bays and
Atlantic coasts by 1-2F. That means the 89 at KPHL, 84 KMPO, 90 at
KABE and KGED as well as 89 at KFWN are all all fcst above the warmest
guidance...in part due to the initial westerly isobaric flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
Tonight...A small chance of a shower or maybe even an isolated
thunderstorm advancing eastward into our forecast area...toward
midnight, mainly eastern PA and e MD. Guidance lowered toward the
drier MET/ECMWF/UKMET guidance. Am not expecting much and my
confidence on any rain occurrence tonight is below average.
(00z/26 SPC WRF n/a but NSSL WRF was quickly reviewed).

A milder night than what is occurring early this Thursday morning.
Min temps around 10-13 degrees above normal.

Fcst basis was a 50 50 blend of 00z/26 GFS/NAM guidance except
favored the drier 00z/NAM MET pop guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A summer like pattern continuing with a warm, above normal period
ahead for our area for the end of the week, through the weekend,
and into early next week. Also, chances of showers and
thunderstorms basically each day.

High pressure will remain to our east well offshore through the
end of the week into the weekend, with our area on the
western periphery. This will keep a southerly flow across the
area. Meanwhile, ridging aloft begins to take place as well. In
turn, thicknesses will rise into the weekend, helping
temperatures rise well above normal. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
look to be the warmest days of the upcoming forecast period. By
Monday, the ridge aloft breaks down some, so the temperatures may
cool down a couple of degrees. However, the ridging may return for
Tuesday into Wednesday which would allow temperatures to rise a
few more degrees.

There will be a chance of isolated to scattered showers each
day, especially during the day with afternoon heating. The best
chance of shower/thunderstorm activity will be tied to individual
vorticity, short wave impulses.

A backdoor cold front may approach the area over the weekend,
but should stay north of the area. If it does make its way into
our northern areas, it could hold temperatures down on the
northern side, and possibly bring a higher shower potential. But
for now, we do not expect it to make its way into our area.

There is some timing differences with the next actual frontal
passage, with the GFS bringing the front through on Tuesday, and
the ECMWF bringing the front through on Monday. We`ll keep closer
to the GFS and and WPC with a late Tuesday passage. Either way,
there will still be a chance of showers and thunderstorms both
days.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Through 12z...VFR with variable cirrus. Small chance of isolated
MVFR VSBY near 10z vcnty KRDG or KMIV but dewpoints are so low
that fog is unlikely. Light south to southwest wind.

After 12z Today...VFR. Sct clouds aoa 6000 ft, mainly this
afternoon. South to southwest wind should gust 15 kt this
afternoon.

Tonight...VFR sct-bkn aoa 6000 ft. Small chance of a shower or
isolated tstm near 06z/27...mainly KRDG, KABE after 03z/27.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-Monday...Generally VFR during the day through the period.
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mostly during the day,
which may temporarily lead to lower conditions. Some fog
development overnight into the morning each day.

&&

.MARINE...
No marine headlines anticipated through Tonight.

Southwest winds with scattered gusts 15 kt this morning become
south to southeast this afternoon, also with gusts to 15 kt...then
return to southwest overnight-this coming Thursday night.

Seas aob 3 feet. Used the latest available more conservative NWPS
guidance (25/18z run).

OUTLOOK...

Friday-Monday...Sub-small craft advisory conditions expected.
Winds may gust near 20 knots, especially Thursday night through
Friday night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The Philadelphia monthly average temperature continues to project
only about 1f below normal... with this current end of the month
stretch of above normal temperatures denting the first 24 days,
nearly 4 degree below average.

Also the Philadelphia month of May precip total of 5.14 inches
ranks 20th wettest dating back to 1872. Atlantic City has had 4.87
is ranked #21 wettest dating back to 1874 and Wilmington`s (DE)
5.55 inches ranks 18th dating back to 1894.

We may add more information by 5am Thursday.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Drag/Robertson
Near Term...Drag 242
Short Term...Drag 242
Long Term...Robertson
Aviation...Drag/Robertson
Marine...Drag/Robertson
Climate...





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