Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KPHI 061034
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
634 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
LATER TODAY, THEN LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, FOLLOWING BY HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA DURING TUESDAY, THEN STALLS IN OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CHILLY SHOWERY RAINS THIS MORNING SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON THOUGH WITH MOIST INFLOW BENEATH A
COOLING 500MB LAYER (-24C NEAR PHL AT 00Z THIS EVENING) WE COULD
SEE LOW TOP SHOWERS CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COASTS AND SWEEP
WESTWARD) . CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY ALOFT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER/ASSOCIATED SMALL HAIL WITH VERY STEEP MID LVL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ NEAR 6000 FT. NOT SURE WHAT WILL TRIGGER
THE THUNDER EXCEPT SFC CONVERGENCE WITH THE LOW COMING ASHORE AND
PERHAPS SOME AFTERNOON SFC HEATING NEAR THE APPROACHING LOW OVER
DE. TEMPS MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN YDY I95 NWWD.

A GUSTY NE WIND FOR A TIME THIS MORNING NEAR 20 MPH EXCEPT GUSTS
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES MAY APPROACH
35 MPH (SEE HRRR GUSTS AS A BAND OF STRONGER WIND WELL NORTH OF
THE LOW CENTER SHIFTS WESTWARD WITH LOW ALONG THE S SHORE OF LI).

FCST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/6 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HAVE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS AND ANY LEFTOVER
ISOLATED EVENING TSTMS (SE PA/S NJ). CONFIDENCE ON WHAT OCCURS
AND WHERE, IS BELOW AVERAGE. IN PART THIS IS DUE TO RECENT LOSS
OF CONFIDENCE IN GFS QPF FCSTS. NE WIND DIMINISHING THIS EVENING
AND BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY ON THE DELMARVA, POSSIBLY EVEN TO
I95.

FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT WIND IN THE MIDST
OF VERTICALLY STACKED MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FCST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/6 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN INITIAL CLOSED LOW CENTERED
OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE OPENS UP DURING
SATURDAY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT MONDAY. A
WEAK RIDGE THEN ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE WARM
FRONT ALSO MOVING THROUGH. THE WARM FRONT HOWEVER MAY END UP
STALLING IN OUR VICINITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ENERGY SHEARS
EASTWARD ALONG IT. GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANGE, MUCH WARMER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK WITH THIS CHANGE STARTING OVER THE
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY DURING SUNDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE WARMING THOUGH
NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MAY MEANDER ACROSS OUR CWA AND ALSO PRECIPITATION CHCS. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN BLENDED
IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THIS TIME FRAME BEGINS WITH A CLOSED LOW
RIGHT OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN
UP AND SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE DUE
TO A KICKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A CORE OF -20C TO -24C AIR AT 500 MB IS OVER OUR AREA
SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS MODIFIES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
TROUGH OPENS UP AND SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. THE PRESENCE OF COLD AIR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME LIFT FROM THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY INLAND. THE FLOW IS
LIGHT UNDER THE CLOSED LOW THEREFORE SHOWERS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVERS.
SINCE THE AIRMASS IS WARMING DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, THIS MAY
MITIGATE THE INSTABILITY POTENTIAL. IT APPEARS ANY INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THEREFORE THUNDER WAS NOT ADDED FOR SATURDAY ATTM. AS
WE LOSE THE CONTINUOUS ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT AND THE TROUGH ALOFT
WEAKENING THROUGH SATURDAY, THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE.

AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THEN STARTS TO NEAR OUR
AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS FRONT
MAY MOVE IN A BIT FASTER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO DRIVE SOME SHOWERS
/PERHAPS A BAND OF SHOWERS/ ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. THE STRONGEST
FORCING MAY GLANCE OUR NORTHERN AREAS AND THEREFORE THE HIGHEST POPS
WERE PLACED THERE LATER AT NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT ALSO EXITS, THEN DRIER AIR
AND BETTER MIXING WILL PROMOTE SUNSHINE FINALLY RETURNING FOR THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THOUGH SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WE WENT A BIT WARMER THAN MOS FOR SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN GIVEN DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE WINDS TO
DIMINISH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES DURING MONDAY,
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER OUR CWA TO START BUT IT
LOOKS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AND WITH DOWNSTREAM WAA
INCREASING, A WARMER TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED. THE WAA WILL BE USHERED
IN VIA A WARM FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA DURING TUESDAY, AND THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THAT
THIS FRONT MAY THEN STALL IN OUR AREA AS ENERGY INITIALLY SHEARS
EASTWARD ALONG IT. THIS SHEARING ENERGY COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE AS IT LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, HOWEVER A
TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MAY PUSH THE FRONT
FARTHER SOUTHWARD. THIS SOUTHWARD PUSH COULD BE ENHANCED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAY BUILD DOWN SOME FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A TROUGH IN
THE MIDWEST HOWEVER PUSHES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE UP THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH DOWNSTREAM WAA AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO START LIFTING NORTHWARD SOME AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE ON THE WARMER SIDE, HOWEVER THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WE BLENDED
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY AND THEN MADE SOME TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...CIGS GENERALLY VARIABLE 600-1600 FT VSBY 1-4 MI IN SHOWERY
RAINS DURING THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING
KACY/KMIV AND THEN DURING THE AFTN ELSEWHERE. TSTMS NOT IN TAF DUE
TO LOW CONFIDENCE AND ISOLATED NATURE. NE WIND...GUSTS 15-23 KT FOR
A TIME LATER THIS MORNING-MIDDAY.

TONIGHT... MVFR/IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG, POSSIBLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS.
DIMINISHING NE WIND THIS EVENING NEAR AND N OF I78. OTHERWISE LIGHT
WIND TRENDING SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN
THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED WHICH CAN
LOCALLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY FOR A TIME, THEN A BAND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES LATE AT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, OTHERWISE VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 12-18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISH AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR, THEN POSSIBLY SOME MVFR DURING TUESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS MONDAY, BECOMING LIGHT AT NIGHT THEN SHIFTING
TO SOUTHERLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES OCEAN WATERS AS PREVIOUSLY OUTLINED THROUGH TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY DUE TO SEAS. DECIDED TO CONTINUE DE BAY SCA SINCE A FEW
GUSTS EARLIER NEAR 23 KT. HOWEVER... TRENDS BY MID MORNING SHOULD
BE DECREASING DE BAY.

SMALL CHANCE WE WILL NEED TO UPGRADE TO A SHORT FUSE SHORT DURATION
GALE ANZ450-451 FOR THE PERIOD 16Z-21Z. CONFIDENCE IN UPGRADING
WAS LESS THAN 80 PCT SO HAVE HELD OFF FOR NOW.

FOG MAY BECOME A MARINE HAZARD LATER THIS FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW
INITIALLY OVERHEAD WEAKENS AND THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE SEAS MAY BE
RIGHT AT 5 FEET TO START ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS BUT
OVERALL THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE TRENDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THEREFORE WE DID NOT EXTEND THE ADVISORY ATTM.

SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TURN GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET. IT IS POSSIBLE WINDS GUST TO 25 KNOTS
NEARSHORE, HOWEVER OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DESPITE
SOME INCREASE IN A SOUTHERLY WIND MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN LATER
TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PLEASE SEE THE HAZARD CFW STATEMENT FOR THE PARTICULARS RELATING
TO EACH AREA.

PHL: TIDAL DE ADVY EXPIRED BUT MAY NEED A NEW ONE TO BE ISSUED
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
CONFIDENCE IN EXCEEDING THE ADVY THRESHOLD WAS NOT QUITE
CATEGORICAL ON THIS SHIFT.

REEDY POINT UPPER DE BAY, LOWER TIDAL DE LINKED: REISSUED FOR LATE
THIS EVENING, SINCE CONFIDENCE IS CATEGORICAL THAT IT WILL REOCCUR,
ESPECIALLY BECAUSE THE FUNNELED ENE FLOW THIS MORNING TURNS LIGHT
SOUTH THIS EVENING.

NJ/DE ATLC COASTS: NO CHANGE IN THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE TIDAL
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND 1 TO 1.5 FEET TODAY IN THE
CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE SAW
MANY OBSERVING SITES EITHER JUST REACH OR FALL JUST SHY OF
MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WE ARE FORECASTING MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING AROUND THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE AND MODERATE FLOODING
AROUND THIS FRIDAY EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. RATHER THAN CARRY MULTIPLE
HEADLINES, WE CONTINUED WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING TO COVER
BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY LINGER WITH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 633
SHORT TERM...DRAG 633
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 633
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 633
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...633





000
FXUS61 KPHI 060818
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
418 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
LATER TODAY, THEN LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, FOLLOWING BY HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA DURING TUESDAY, THEN STALLS IN OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PRIOR TO SUNRISE: HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE SPREAD ASHORE AND AREA HEADING
INLAND.

DURING THE DAY...CHILLY SHOWERY RAINS THIS MORNING MAY TAPER OFF
FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY
ALOFT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER/ASSOCIATED SMALL HAIL
WITH VERY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ NEAR 6000 FT. NOT
SURE WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE THUNDER EXCEPT SFC CONVERGENCE WITH THE
LOW COMING ASHORE AND PERHAPS SOME AFTERNOON SFC HEATING NEAR THE
APPROACHING LOW OVER DE. TEMPS MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN
YDY I95 NWWD.

A GUSTY NE WIND FOR A TIME THIS MORNING NEAR 20 MPH EXCEPT GUSTS
MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES MAY APPROACH
35 MPH.

FCST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/6 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
HAVE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS AND ANY LEFTOVER
ISOLATED EVENING TSTMS (SE PA/S NJ). CONFIDENCE ON WHAT OCCURS
AND WHERE, IS BELOW AVERAGE. IN PART THIS IS DUE TO RECENT LOSS
OF CONFIDENCE IN GFS QPF FCSTS. NE WIND DIMINISHING THIS EVENING
AND BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY ON THE DELMARVA, POSSIBLY EVEN TO
I95.

FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT WIND IN THE MIDST
OF VERTICALLY STACKED MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

FCST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/6 GFS/NAM MOS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN INITIAL CLOSED LOW CENTERED
OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE OPENS UP DURING
SATURDAY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT MONDAY. A
WEAK RIDGE THEN ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE WARM
FRONT ALSO MOVING THROUGH. THE WARM FRONT HOWEVER MAY END UP
STALLING IN OUR VICINITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ENERGY SHEARS
EASTWARD ALONG IT. GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANGE, MUCH WARMER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK WITH THIS CHANGE STARTING OVER THE
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY DURING SUNDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE WARMING THOUGH
NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MAY MEANDER ACROSS OUR CWA AND ALSO PRECIPITATION CHCS. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN BLENDED
IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THIS TIME FRAME BEGINS WITH A CLOSED LOW
RIGHT OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN
UP AND SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE DUE
TO A KICKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A CORE OF -20C TO -24C AIR AT 500 MB IS OVER OUR AREA
SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS MODIFIES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
TROUGH OPENS UP AND SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. THE PRESENCE OF COLD AIR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME LIFT FROM THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY INLAND. THE FLOW IS
LIGHT UNDER THE CLOSED LOW THEREFORE SHOWERS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVERS.
SINCE THE AIRMASS IS WARMING DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, THIS MAY
MITIGATE THE INSTABILITY POTENTIAL. IT APPEARS ANY INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THEREFORE THUNDER WAS NOT ADDED FOR SATURDAY ATTM. AS
WE LOSE THE CONTINUOUS ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT AND THE TROUGH ALOFT
WEAKENING THROUGH SATURDAY, THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE.

AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THEN STARTS TO NEAR OUR
AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS FRONT
MAY MOVE IN A BIT FASTER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO DRIVE SOME SHOWERS
/PERHAPS A BAND OF SHOWERS/ ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. THE STRONGEST
FORCING MAY GLANCE OUR NORTHERN AREAS AND THEREFORE THE HIGHEST POPS
WERE PLACED THERE LATER AT NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT ALSO EXITS, THEN DRIER AIR
AND BETTER MIXING WILL PROMOTE SUNSHINE FINALLY RETURNING FOR THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THOUGH SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WE WENT A BIT WARMER THAN MOS FOR SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN GIVEN DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE WINDS TO
DIMINISH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES DURING MONDAY,
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER OUR CWA TO START BUT IT
LOOKS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AND WITH DOWNSTREAM WAA
INCREASING, A WARMER TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED. THE WAA WILL BE USHERED
IN VIA A WARM FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA DURING TUESDAY, AND THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THAT
THIS FRONT MAY THEN STALL IN OUR AREA AS ENERGY INITIALLY SHEARS
EASTWARD ALONG IT. THIS SHEARING ENERGY COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE AS IT LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, HOWEVER A
TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MAY PUSH THE FRONT
FARTHER SOUTHWARD. THIS SOUTHWARD PUSH COULD BE ENHANCED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAY BUILD DOWN SOME FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A TROUGH IN
THE MIDWEST HOWEVER PUSHES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE UP THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH DOWNSTREAM WAA AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO START LIFTING NORTHWARD SOME AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE ON THE WARMER SIDE, HOWEVER THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WE BLENDED
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY AND THEN MADE SOME TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING CIGS 600-1600 FT VSBY 1-4
MI IN SHOWERY RAINS. NE WIND...ANY GUSTS UNDER 20 KT.

AFTER 12Z...CIGS 600-1600 FT VSBY 1-4 MI IN SHOWERY RAINS DURING
THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLE SOMEWHAT IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING KACY/KMIV AND
THEN DURING THE AFTN ELSEWHERE. TSTMS NOT IN TAF DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE AND ISOLATED NATURE. NE WIND...ANY GUSTS 15-23 KT FOR A
TIME LATER THIS MORNING-MIDDAY.

TONIGHT... MVFR/IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG, POSSIBLE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN
THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED WHICH CAN
LOCALLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY FOR A TIME, THEN A BAND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES LATE AT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, OTHERWISE VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 12-18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISH AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR, THEN POSSIBLY SOME MVFR DURING TUESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS MONDAY, BECOMING LIGHT AT NIGHT THEN SHIFTING
TO SOUTHERLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES OCEAN WATERS AS PREVIOUSLY OUTLINED THROUGH TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY DUE TO SEAS. DECIDED TO CONTINUE DE BAY SCA SINCE A FEW
GUSTS ATTM NEAR 23 KT.

SMALL CHANCE WE WILL NEED TO UPGRADE TO A SHORT FUSE SHORT
DURATION GALE ANZ450-451 FOR THE PERIOD 16Z-21Z. CONFIDENCE IN
UPGRADING WAS LESS THAN 80 PCT SO HAVE HELD OFF FOR NOW.

FOG MAY BECOME A MARINE HAZARD LATER THIS FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW
INITIALLY OVERHEAD WEAKENS AND THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE SEAS MAY BE
RIGHT AT 5 FEET TO START ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS BUT
OVERALL THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE TRENDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THEREFORE WE DID NOT EXTEND THE ADVISORY ATTM.

SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TURN GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET. IT IS POSSIBLE WINDS GUST TO 25 KNOTS
NEARSHORE, HOWEVER OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DESPITE
SOME INCREASE IN A SOUTHERLY WIND MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN LATER
TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PLEASE SEE THE HAZARD CFW STATEMENT FOR THE PARTICULARS RELATING
TO EACH AREA.

MD: ADDED CF ADVY FOR THE CAMBRIDGE MD LINKED ZONES. MARGINAL.
SEEMS TO HAVE CRESTED AT 3.78...0.02 SHY OF MINOR. IN ANY CASE WE
CONTINUE THE ADVY.

PHL: TIDAL DE ADVY EXPIRED BUT MAY NEED A NEW ONE TO BE ISSUED
THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. CONFIDENCE IN EXCEEDING THE ADVY THRESHOLD WAS NOT QUITE
CATEGORICAL ON THIS SHIFT.

REEDY POINT UPPER DE BAY, LOWER TIDAL DE LINKED: REISSUED FOR LATE
THIS FRIDAY EVENING, SINCE CONFIDENCE IS CATEGORICAL THAT IT WILL
REOCCUR, ESPECIALLY BECAUSE THE FUNNELED ENE FLOW THIS MORNING TURNS
LIGHT SOUTH THIS EVENING.

NJ/DE ATLC COASTS: NO CHANGE IN THE PREVIOUS WARNING. THE TIDAL
SURGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND +1.5 FEET OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED THAT
VALUE THROUGH TODAY IN THE CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE
THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE SAW MANY OBSERVING SITES EITHER JUST
REACH OR FALL JUST SHY OF MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WE ARE
FORECASTING MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE
AND MODERATE FLOODING AROUND THIS FRIDAY EVENING`S HIGH TIDE.
RATHER THAN CARRY MULTIPLE HEADLINES, WE CONTINUED WITH THE
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING TO COVER BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY LINGER WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 418
SHORT TERM...DRAG 418
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 418
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 418
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...418





000
FXUS61 KPHI 060717
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
317 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
LATER TODAY, THEN LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, FOLLOWING BY HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA DURING TUESDAY, THEN STALLS IN OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 AM ESTF: DEFINED THE RAIN YES/NO A LITTLE MORE BUT ESSENTIALLY
THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. HEAVY SHOWERS SPREAD ASHORE BY 2 OR 3
AM, HEADING NORTHWEST FOR EASTERN PA BY 6 AM. SOME OF THE LIGHT
RADAR RETURN CROSSING COASTAL NJ ATTM MAY BE CHAFF? FURTHER SOUTHEAST
NOT. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE SE DE AND S NJ EASTWARD TOWARD DAWN.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...CHILLY SHOWERY RAINS DURING THE MORNING MAY
TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE
INSTABILITY ALOFT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER/ASSOCIATED
SMALL HAIL WITH VERY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ. NOT
SURE WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE THUNDER EXCEPT CONVERGENCE AND PERHAPS
SOME AFTERNOON SFC HEATING NEAR THE APPROACHING LOW OVER DE. TEMPS
MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN YDY I95 NWWD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS AND ANY LEFTOVER
EVENING TSTMS (SE PA/S NJ). FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM WITH A
LIGHT WIND IN THE MIDST OF VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN INITIAL CLOSED LOW CENTERED
OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE OPENS UP DURING
SATURDAY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT MONDAY. A
WEAK RIDGE THEN ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE WARM
FRONT ALSO MOVING THROUGH. THE WARM FRONT HOWEVER MAY END UP
STALLING IN OUR VICINITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ENERGY SHEARS
EASTWARD ALONG IT. GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANGE, MUCH WARMER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK WITH THIS CHANGE STARTING OVER THE
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY DURING SUNDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE WARMING THOUGH
NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MAY MEANDER ACROSS OUR CWA AND ALSO PRECIPITATION CHCS. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN BLENDED
IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THIS TIME FRAME BEGINS WITH A CLOSED LOW
RIGHT OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN
UP AND SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE DUE
TO A KICKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A CORE OF -20C TO -24C AIR AT 500 MB IS OVER OUR AREA
SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS MODIFIES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
TROUGH OPENS UP AND SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. THE PRESENCE OF COLD AIR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME LIFT FROM THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY INLAND. THE FLOW IS
LIGHT UNDER THE CLOSED LOW THEREFORE SHOWERS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVERS.
SINCE THE AIRMASS IS WARMING DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, THIS MAY
MITIGATE THE INSTABILITY POTENTIAL. IT APPEARS ANY INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THEREFORE THUNDER WAS NOT ADDED FOR SATURDAY ATTM. AS
WE LOSE THE CONTINUOUS ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT AND THE TROUGH ALOFT
WEAKENING THROUGH SATURDAY, THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE.

AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THEN STARTS TO NEAR OUR
AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS FRONT
MAY MOVE IN A BIT FASTER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO DRIVE SOME SHOWERS
/PERHAPS A BAND OF SHOWERS/ ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. THE STRONGEST
FORCING MAY GLANCE OUR NORTHERN AREAS AND THEREFORE THE HIGHEST POPS
WERE PLACED THERE LATER AT NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT ALSO EXITS, THEN DRIER AIR
AND BETTER MIXING WILL PROMOTE SUNSHINE FINALLY RETURNING FOR THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THOUGH SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WE WENT A BIT WARMER THAN MOS FOR SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN GIVEN DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE WINDS TO
DIMINISH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES DURING MONDAY,
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER OUR CWA TO START BUT IT
LOOKS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AND WITH DOWNSTREAM WAA
INCREASING, A WARMER TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED. THE WAA WILL BE USHERED
IN VIA A WARM FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA DURING TUESDAY, AND THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THAT
THIS FRONT MAY THEN STALL IN OUR AREA AS ENERGY INITIALLY SHEARS
EASTWARD ALONG IT. THIS SHEARING ENERGY COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE AS IT LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, HOWEVER A
TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MAY PUSH THE FRONT
FARTHER SOUTHWARD. THIS SOUTHWARD PUSH COULD BE ENHANCED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAY BUILD DOWN SOME FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A TROUGH IN
THE MIDWEST HOWEVER PUSHES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE UP THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH DOWNSTREAM WAA AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO START LIFTING NORTHWARD SOME AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE ON THE WARMER SIDE, HOWEVER THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WE BLENDED
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY AND THEN MADE SOME TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z TODAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT MVFR CIGS KACY/KMIV/KTTN TO
START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY TO CIGS 600-1600
FT VSBY 1-4 MI IN SHOWERY RAINS. NE WIND...ANY GUSTS UNDER 20 KT.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...CIGS 600-1600 FT VSBY 1-4 MI IN SHOWERY RAINS
DURING THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLE SOMEWHAT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING
KACY/KMIV AND THEN DURING THE AFTN ELSEWHERE. NE WIND...ANY GUSTS
UNDER 20 KT.

FRIDAY NIGHT... MVFR/IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG, POSSIBLE CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN
THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED WHICH CAN
LOCALLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY FOR A TIME, THEN A BAND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES LATE AT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, OTHERWISE VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 12-18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISH AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR, THEN POSSIBLY SOME MVFR DURING TUESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS MONDAY, BECOMING LIGHT AT NIGHT THEN SHIFTING
TO SOUTHERLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES OCEAN WATERS AS PREVIOUSLY OUTLINED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY DUE TO SEAS. THE DE BAY SCA WILL PROBABLY BE
DISCONTINUED AT 330 AM. WINDS JUST HAVENT BEEN QUITE AS STRONG AS
EXPECTED.

FOG MAY BECOME A MARINE HAZARD LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW
INITIALLY OVERHEAD WEAKENS AND THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE SEAS MAY BE
RIGHT AT 5 FEET TO START ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS BUT
OVERALL THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE TRENDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THEREFORE WE DID NOT EXTEND THE ADVISORY ATTM.

SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TURN GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET. IT IS POSSIBLE WINDS GUST TO 25 KNOTS
NEARSHORE, HOWEVER OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DESPITE
SOME INCREASE IN A SOUTHERLY WIND MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN LATER
TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIDAL SURGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND +1.5 FEET OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEED THAT VALUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE HAS MOSTLY PASSED ON THE
OCEANFRONT AND MANY SITES EITHER JUST REACHED OR FELL JUST SHY OF
MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING COULD CONTINUE
ON THE BACK BAYS FOR THE NEXT 5 HOURS. WE ARE FORECASTING MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING AROUND FRIDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE AND MODERATE
FLOODING AROUND FRIDAY EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. RATHER THAN CARRY
MULTIPLE HEADLINES, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
TO COVER BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY LINGER
WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON SATURDAY.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECTED MINOR FLOODING ON THE FAR UPPER DELAWARE BAY
AND ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER TONIGHT SO THOSE AREAS ARE UNDER AN
ADVISORY. SINCE WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MODERATE FLOODING ON THE
FAR UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, WE WILL
HANDLE EACH OF THEIR HIGH TIDES SEPARATELY, ISSUING ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES AS NEEDED.

WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY TIDAL FLOODING THERE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 060717
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
317 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST
LATER TODAY, THEN LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, FOLLOWING BY HIGH PRESSURE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA DURING TUESDAY, THEN STALLS IN OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 AM ESTF: DEFINED THE RAIN YES/NO A LITTLE MORE BUT ESSENTIALLY
THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. HEAVY SHOWERS SPREAD ASHORE BY 2 OR 3
AM, HEADING NORTHWEST FOR EASTERN PA BY 6 AM. SOME OF THE LIGHT
RADAR RETURN CROSSING COASTAL NJ ATTM MAY BE CHAFF? FURTHER SOUTHEAST
NOT. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE SE DE AND S NJ EASTWARD TOWARD DAWN.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...CHILLY SHOWERY RAINS DURING THE MORNING MAY
TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE
INSTABILITY ALOFT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER/ASSOCIATED
SMALL HAIL WITH VERY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ. NOT
SURE WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE THUNDER EXCEPT CONVERGENCE AND PERHAPS
SOME AFTERNOON SFC HEATING NEAR THE APPROACHING LOW OVER DE. TEMPS
MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN YDY I95 NWWD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS AND ANY LEFTOVER
EVENING TSTMS (SE PA/S NJ). FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM WITH A
LIGHT WIND IN THE MIDST OF VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN INITIAL CLOSED LOW CENTERED
OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE OPENS UP DURING
SATURDAY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE NEW TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT MONDAY. A
WEAK RIDGE THEN ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE WARM
FRONT ALSO MOVING THROUGH. THE WARM FRONT HOWEVER MAY END UP
STALLING IN OUR VICINITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS ENERGY SHEARS
EASTWARD ALONG IT. GIVEN THE PATTERN CHANGE, MUCH WARMER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE NEXT WEEK WITH THIS CHANGE STARTING OVER THE
WEEKEND ESPECIALLY DURING SUNDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE WARMING THOUGH
NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MAY MEANDER ACROSS OUR CWA AND ALSO PRECIPITATION CHCS. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN BLENDED
IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THIS TIME FRAME BEGINS WITH A CLOSED LOW
RIGHT OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS FEATURE WILL OPEN
UP AND SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS WILL BE DUE
TO A KICKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A CORE OF -20C TO -24C AIR AT 500 MB IS OVER OUR AREA
SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THIS MODIFIES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
TROUGH OPENS UP AND SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. THE PRESENCE OF COLD AIR
ALOFT COMBINED WITH SOME LIFT FROM THE CLOSED LOW SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY ESPECIALLY INLAND. THE FLOW IS
LIGHT UNDER THE CLOSED LOW THEREFORE SHOWERS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVERS.
SINCE THE AIRMASS IS WARMING DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, THIS MAY
MITIGATE THE INSTABILITY POTENTIAL. IT APPEARS ANY INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL AND THEREFORE THUNDER WAS NOT ADDED FOR SATURDAY ATTM. AS
WE LOSE THE CONTINUOUS ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT AND THE TROUGH ALOFT
WEAKENING THROUGH SATURDAY, THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE.

AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES THEN STARTS TO NEAR OUR
AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR NORTH WILL
PULL A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS FRONT
MAY MOVE IN A BIT FASTER. THERE APPEARS TO BE A PLUME OF DEEPER
MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT TO DRIVE SOME SHOWERS
/PERHAPS A BAND OF SHOWERS/ ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. THE STRONGEST
FORCING MAY GLANCE OUR NORTHERN AREAS AND THEREFORE THE HIGHEST POPS
WERE PLACED THERE LATER AT NIGHT. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD QUICKLY SHIFT
OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT ALSO EXITS, THEN DRIER AIR
AND BETTER MIXING WILL PROMOTE SUNSHINE FINALLY RETURNING FOR THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY THOUGH SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. WE WENT A BIT WARMER THAN MOS FOR SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN GIVEN DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT ALLOWING THE WINDS TO
DIMINISH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING ARRIVES DURING MONDAY,
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER OUR CWA TO START BUT IT
LOOKS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AND WITH DOWNSTREAM WAA
INCREASING, A WARMER TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED. THE WAA WILL BE USHERED
IN VIA A WARM FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE AREA DURING TUESDAY, AND THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM
MAINLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THAT
THIS FRONT MAY THEN STALL IN OUR AREA AS ENERGY INITIALLY SHEARS
EASTWARD ALONG IT. THIS SHEARING ENERGY COULD PRODUCE SOME
CONVECTION.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS WITH THE
FRONTAL ZONE AS IT LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, HOWEVER A
TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MAY PUSH THE FRONT
FARTHER SOUTHWARD. THIS SOUTHWARD PUSH COULD BE ENHANCED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAY BUILD DOWN SOME FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A TROUGH IN
THE MIDWEST HOWEVER PUSHES SURFACE LOW PRESSURE UP THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH DOWNSTREAM WAA AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO START LIFTING NORTHWARD SOME AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE ON THE WARMER SIDE, HOWEVER THIS
WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WE BLENDED
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY AND THEN MADE SOME TWEAKS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z TODAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT MVFR CIGS KACY/KMIV/KTTN TO
START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY TO CIGS 600-1600
FT VSBY 1-4 MI IN SHOWERY RAINS. NE WIND...ANY GUSTS UNDER 20 KT.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...CIGS 600-1600 FT VSBY 1-4 MI IN SHOWERY RAINS
DURING THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLE SOMEWHAT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING
KACY/KMIV AND THEN DURING THE AFTN ELSEWHERE. NE WIND...ANY GUSTS
UNDER 20 KT.

FRIDAY NIGHT... MVFR/IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG, POSSIBLE CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN
THE AFTERNOON. MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED WHICH CAN
LOCALLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY FOR A TIME, THEN A BAND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES LATE AT NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, OTHERWISE VFR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
INCREASE TO 12-18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISH AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR, THEN POSSIBLY SOME MVFR DURING TUESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS MONDAY, BECOMING LIGHT AT NIGHT THEN SHIFTING
TO SOUTHERLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES OCEAN WATERS AS PREVIOUSLY OUTLINED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY DUE TO SEAS. THE DE BAY SCA WILL PROBABLY BE
DISCONTINUED AT 330 AM. WINDS JUST HAVENT BEEN QUITE AS STRONG AS
EXPECTED.

FOG MAY BECOME A MARINE HAZARD LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW
INITIALLY OVERHEAD WEAKENS AND THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE SEAS MAY BE
RIGHT AT 5 FEET TO START ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS BUT
OVERALL THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE TRENDING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THEREFORE WE DID NOT EXTEND THE ADVISORY ATTM.

SUNDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TURN GUSTY TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS AT OR BELOW 4 FEET. IT IS POSSIBLE WINDS GUST TO 25 KNOTS
NEARSHORE, HOWEVER OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DESPITE
SOME INCREASE IN A SOUTHERLY WIND MONDAY AND THEN AGAIN LATER
TUESDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIDAL SURGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND +1.5 FEET OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEED THAT VALUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE HAS MOSTLY PASSED ON THE
OCEANFRONT AND MANY SITES EITHER JUST REACHED OR FELL JUST SHY OF
MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING COULD CONTINUE
ON THE BACK BAYS FOR THE NEXT 5 HOURS. WE ARE FORECASTING MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING AROUND FRIDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE AND MODERATE
FLOODING AROUND FRIDAY EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. RATHER THAN CARRY
MULTIPLE HEADLINES, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
TO COVER BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY LINGER
WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON SATURDAY.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECTED MINOR FLOODING ON THE FAR UPPER DELAWARE BAY
AND ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER TONIGHT SO THOSE AREAS ARE UNDER AN
ADVISORY. SINCE WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MODERATE FLOODING ON THE
FAR UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, WE WILL
HANDLE EACH OF THEIR HIGH TIDES SEPARATELY, ISSUING ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES AS NEEDED.

WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY TIDAL FLOODING THERE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 060418
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1218 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEVELOP NORTHWEST TO
NEAR DELAWARE THIS AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING LATE SATURDAY
OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA OR NEW JERSEY. A COLD FRONT PASSES EASTWARD
THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AND STALL NEAR THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1230 AM ESTF: DEFINED THE RAIN YES/NO A LITTLE MORE BUT ESSENTIALLY
THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. HEAVY SHOWERS SPREAD ASHORE BY 2 OR 3
AM, HEADING NORTHWEST FOR EASTERN PA BY 6 AM. SOME OF THE LIGHT
RADAR RETURN CROSSING COASTAL NJ ATTM MAY BE CHAFF? FURTHER SOUTHEAST
NOT. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE SE DE AND S NJ EASTWARD TOWARD DAWN.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...CHILLY SHOWERY RAINS DURING THE MORNING MAY
TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE
INSTABILITY ALOFT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER/ASSOCIATED
SMALL HAIL WITH VERY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ. NOT
SURE WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE THUNDER EXCEPT CONVERGENCE AND PERHAPS
SOME AFTERNOON SFC HEATING NEAR THE APPROACHING LOW OVER DE. TEMPS
MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN YDY I95 NWWD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS AND ANY LEFTOVER
EVENING TSTMS (SE PA/S NJ). FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM WITH A
LIGHT WIND IN THE MIDST OF VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, CONTINUING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED VORTICITY DISTURBANCES
CIRCLING THE CLOSED LOW. HOWEVER, THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AS THE RIDGING TO OUR WEST BREAKS DOWN AND
A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE CLOSED LOW OVER OUR AREA TO OPEN LATER SATURDAY AND BEGIN
MOVING TO OUR EAST, WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES EASTWARD AND
THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WE COULD HAVE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY,
WHICH SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. DRY AIR WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AROUND 20-25 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA, AND MAY STALL ACROSS OUR THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE
FRONT TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY, AND MOVE TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA AND POTENTIAL STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS WILL MORE ENHANCED WHEN SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z TODAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT MVFR CIGS KACY/KMIV/KTTN TO
START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY TO CIGS 600-1600
FT VSBY 1-4 MI IN SHOWERY RAINS. NE WIND...ANY GUSTS UNDER 20 KT.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...CIGS 600-1600 FT VSBY 1-4 MI IN SHOWERY RAINS
DURING THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLE SOMEWHAT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING
KACY/KMIV AND THEN DURING THE AFTN ELSEWHERE. NE WIND...ANY GUSTS
UNDER 20 KT.

FRIDAY NIGHT... MVFR/IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG, POSSIBLE CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY, IMPROVING TO MVFR DURING THE DAY
WITH SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEHIND COLD FRONT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS 20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
20-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...PERIODS OF LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DUE TO A LIFTING WARM FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES OCEAN WATERS AS PREVIOUSLY OUTLINED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY DUE TO SEAS. THE DE BAY SCA WILL PROBABLY BE
DISCONTINUED AT 330 AM. WINDS JUST HAVENT BEEN QUITE AS STRONG AS
EXPECTED.

FOG MAY BECOME A MARINE HAZARD LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WITH
ELEVATED SEAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. WIND MAY PERIODICALLY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET DURING SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIDAL SURGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND +1.5 FEET OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEED THAT VALUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE HAS MOSTLY PASSED ON THE
OCEANFRONT AND MANY SITES EITHER JUST REACHED OR FELL JUST SHY OF
MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING COULD CONTINUE
ON THE BACK BAYS FOR THE NEXT 5 HOURS. WE ARE FORECASTING MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING AROUND FRIDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE AND MODERATE
FLOODING AROUND FRIDAY EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. RATHER THAN CARRY
MULTIPLE HEADLINES, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
TO COVER BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY LINGER
WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON SATURDAY.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECTED MINOR FLOODING ON THE FAR UPPER DELAWARE BAY
AND ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER TONIGHT SO THOSE AREAS ARE UNDER AN
ADVISORY. SINCE WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MODERATE FLOODING ON THE
FAR UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, WE WILL
HANDLE EACH OF THEIR HIGH TIDES SEPARATELY, ISSUING ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES AS NEEDED.

WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY TIDAL FLOODING THERE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ017>019.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG 1218A
NEAR TERM...DRAG/IOVINO/JOHNSON 1218A
SHORT TERM...IOVINO/DRAG 1218A
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 1218A
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO/ROBERTSON 1218A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 060418
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1218 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEVELOP NORTHWEST TO
NEAR DELAWARE THIS AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING LATE SATURDAY
OVER EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA OR NEW JERSEY. A COLD FRONT PASSES EASTWARD
THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTH TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AND STALL NEAR THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1230 AM ESTF: DEFINED THE RAIN YES/NO A LITTLE MORE BUT ESSENTIALLY
THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. HEAVY SHOWERS SPREAD ASHORE BY 2 OR 3
AM, HEADING NORTHWEST FOR EASTERN PA BY 6 AM. SOME OF THE LIGHT
RADAR RETURN CROSSING COASTAL NJ ATTM MAY BE CHAFF? FURTHER SOUTHEAST
NOT. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE SE DE AND S NJ EASTWARD TOWARD DAWN.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...CHILLY SHOWERY RAINS DURING THE MORNING MAY
TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONSIDERABLE
INSTABILITY ALOFT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDER/ASSOCIATED
SMALL HAIL WITH VERY STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND LOW WBZ. NOT
SURE WHAT WILL TRIGGER THE THUNDER EXCEPT CONVERGENCE AND PERHAPS
SOME AFTERNOON SFC HEATING NEAR THE APPROACHING LOW OVER DE. TEMPS
MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN YDY I95 NWWD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS AND ANY LEFTOVER
EVENING TSTMS (SE PA/S NJ). FOG MAY BECOME A PROBLEM WITH A
LIGHT WIND IN THE MIDST OF VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, CONTINUING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED VORTICITY DISTURBANCES
CIRCLING THE CLOSED LOW. HOWEVER, THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AS THE RIDGING TO OUR WEST BREAKS DOWN AND
A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE CLOSED LOW OVER OUR AREA TO OPEN LATER SATURDAY AND BEGIN
MOVING TO OUR EAST, WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES EASTWARD AND
THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WE COULD HAVE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY,
WHICH SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. DRY AIR WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AROUND 20-25 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA, AND MAY STALL ACROSS OUR THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE
FRONT TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY, AND MOVE TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA AND POTENTIAL STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS WILL MORE ENHANCED WHEN SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z TODAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT MVFR CIGS KACY/KMIV/KTTN TO
START. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY TO CIGS 600-1600
FT VSBY 1-4 MI IN SHOWERY RAINS. NE WIND...ANY GUSTS UNDER 20 KT.

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...CIGS 600-1600 FT VSBY 1-4 MI IN SHOWERY RAINS
DURING THE MORNING WITH POSSIBLE SOMEWHAT IMPROVING CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TSTM POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING
KACY/KMIV AND THEN DURING THE AFTN ELSEWHERE. NE WIND...ANY GUSTS
UNDER 20 KT.

FRIDAY NIGHT... MVFR/IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG, POSSIBLE CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY, IMPROVING TO MVFR DURING THE DAY
WITH SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEHIND COLD FRONT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS 20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
20-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...PERIODS OF LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DUE TO A LIFTING WARM FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES OCEAN WATERS AS PREVIOUSLY OUTLINED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, ESPECIALLY DUE TO SEAS. THE DE BAY SCA WILL PROBABLY BE
DISCONTINUED AT 330 AM. WINDS JUST HAVENT BEEN QUITE AS STRONG AS
EXPECTED.

FOG MAY BECOME A MARINE HAZARD LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WITH
ELEVATED SEAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. WIND MAY PERIODICALLY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET DURING SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIDAL SURGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND +1.5 FEET OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEED THAT VALUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE HAS MOSTLY PASSED ON THE
OCEANFRONT AND MANY SITES EITHER JUST REACHED OR FELL JUST SHY OF
MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING COULD CONTINUE
ON THE BACK BAYS FOR THE NEXT 5 HOURS. WE ARE FORECASTING MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING AROUND FRIDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE AND MODERATE
FLOODING AROUND FRIDAY EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. RATHER THAN CARRY
MULTIPLE HEADLINES, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
TO COVER BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY LINGER
WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON SATURDAY.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECTED MINOR FLOODING ON THE FAR UPPER DELAWARE BAY
AND ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER TONIGHT SO THOSE AREAS ARE UNDER AN
ADVISORY. SINCE WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MODERATE FLOODING ON THE
FAR UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, WE WILL
HANDLE EACH OF THEIR HIGH TIDES SEPARATELY, ISSUING ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES AS NEEDED.

WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY TIDAL FLOODING THERE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ017>019.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG 1218A
NEAR TERM...DRAG/IOVINO/JOHNSON 1218A
SHORT TERM...IOVINO/DRAG 1218A
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 1218A
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO/ROBERTSON 1218A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 060103
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
903 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL
DISSIPATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND PASSES THROUGH EARLY ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, AND STALL NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SHOWERS HAVE NOT
MOVED INTO OUR REGION YEST, BUT WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE VERY LIGHT
RADAR RETURNS EXPANDING OFF SHORE AND COULD BEGIN TO SEE THOSE
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MOVE OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST
TO DRIFT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FROM
THE WATERS OFF CAPE HATTERAS TO THE WATERS OFF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN OVERCAST INTO THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
FEW BREAKS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALSO, WE EXPECT SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING, MAINLY IN OUR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT,
RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE
AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

THE DIVERGENT FLOW ON THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH SIDE OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION AND WE EXPECT
RAINFALL RATES TO INCREASE TO MODERATE OR HEAVY AT TIMES TOWARD
MORNING. ALSO, WE`LL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 45 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE. THE WIND SHOULD FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH INLAND AND ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH NEAR THE COAST WITH SOME
GUSTINESS THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT FROM AROUND CAPE HATTERAS
EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING TO OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY. THE SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN INLAND AND INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SYSTEMS IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH THE
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WEST AND
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO TAPER TO LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THE COAST INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE.

THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. DEPENDING UPON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS, OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES MAY EXPERIENCE A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH FOR A TIME IN THE AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, CONTINUING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED VORTICITY DISTURBANCES
CIRCLING THE CLOSED LOW. HOWEVER, THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AS THE RIDGING TO OUR WEST BREAKS DOWN AND
A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE CLOSED LOW OVER OUR AREA TO OPEN LATER SATURDAY AND BEGIN
MOVING TO OUR EAST, WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES EASTWARD AND
THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WE COULD HAVE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY,
WHICH SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. DRY AIR WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AROUND 20-25 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA, AND MAY STALL ACROSS OUR THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE
FRONT TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY, AND MOVE TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA AND POTENTIAL STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS WILL MORE ENHANCED WHEN SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS BY 03Z. AND EXPECT
CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH 06Z. BY 12Z, EXPECT
MOST, IF NOT ALL TAF SITES TO HAVE IFR CEILINGS WHICH SHOULD
LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST LATE
TONIGHT. IT SHOULD IMPACT OUR TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z, IF
NOT LATER. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO TAPER TO SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. IFR VISIBILITIES WITH
HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME, HAVE NOT INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS AS COVERAGE MAY BE QUITE
LIMITED, THUS CONFIDENCE THAT ANY ONE TAF SITE WILL BE AFFECTED IS
LOW.

THE WIND SHOULD FAVOR THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT SPEEDS
OF 6 TO 12 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.

SATURDAY...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY, IMPROVING TO MVFR DURING THE DAY WITH
SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEHIND COLD FRONT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS 20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
20-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...PERIODS OF LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DUE TO A LIFTING WARM FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT INLAND OVER DELAWARE
OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS AND ON LOWER DELAWARE BAY. AS A RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. WE HAVE EXTENDED IT UNTIL 1000 AM
FRIDAY ON LOWER DELAWARE BAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WILL FAVOR THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE
AND THEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FEET ON DELAWARE BAY, PERHAPS NEAR
5 FEET AROUND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH
ELEVATED SEAS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WITH
ELEVATED SEAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. WIND MAY PERIODICALLY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET DURING SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIDAL SURGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND +1.5 FEET OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEED THAT VALUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. THE THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE HAS MOSTLY PASSED ON THE
OCEANFRONT AND MANY SITES EITHER JUST REACHED OR FELL JUST SHY OF
MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING COULD CONTINUE
ON THE BACK BAYS FOR THE NEXT 5 HOURS. WE ARE FORECASTING MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING AROUND FRIDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE AND MODERATE
FLOODING AROUND FRIDAY EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. RATHER THAN CARRY
MULTIPLE HEADLINES, WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING TO COVER BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY
LINGER WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON SATURDAY.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECTED MINOR FLOODING ON THE FAR UPPER DELAWARE BAY
AND ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER TONIGHT SO THOSE AREAS ARE UNDER AN
ADVISORY. SINCE WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MODERATE FLOODING ON THE
FAR UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, WE WILL
HANDLE EACH OF THEIR HIGH TIDES SEPARATELY, ISSUING ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES AS NEEDED.

WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY TIDAL FLOODING THERE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ017>019.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO/JOHNSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 051942
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT
WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL
DISSIPATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE WEST AND PASSES THROUGH EARLY ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
AFFECTS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, AND STALL NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A DEEP MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FROM THE WATERS OFF CAPE
HATTERAS TO THE WATERS OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN OVERCAST INTO THIS EVENING WITH PERHAPS A
FEW BREAKS OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALSO, WE EXPECT SPOTTY
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING, MAINLY IN OUR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT,
RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE
AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

THE DIVERGENT FLOW ON THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH SIDE OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION AND WE EXPECT
RAINFALL RATES TO INCREASE TO MODERATE OR HEAVY AT TIMES TOWARD
MORNING. ALSO, WE`LL KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 45 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE. THE WIND SHOULD FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10
MPH INLAND AND ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH NEAR THE COAST WITH SOME
GUSTINESS THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT FROM AROUND CAPE HATTERAS
EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING TO OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY. THE SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN INLAND AND INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE SYSTEMS IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH THE
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER WEST AND
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO TAPER TO LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THE COAST INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH RANGE.

THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. DEPENDING UPON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS, OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES MAY EXPERIENCE A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTH FOR A TIME IN THE AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT AND SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, CONTINUING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE
WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTINUED VORTICITY DISTURBANCES
CIRCLING THE CLOSED LOW. HOWEVER, THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN SATURDAY AS THE RIDGING TO OUR WEST BREAKS DOWN AND
A TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE CLOSED LOW OVER OUR AREA TO OPEN LATER SATURDAY AND BEGIN
MOVING TO OUR EAST, WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. AS THE CLOSED LOW MOVES EASTWARD AND
THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WE COULD HAVE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY,
WHICH SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. DRY AIR WILL
MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AROUND 20-25 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA, AND MAY STALL ACROSS OUR THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE
FRONT TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY, AND MOVE TOWARD OUR AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
AREA AND POTENTIAL STALLS OUT ACROSS THE AREA. THE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS WILL MORE ENHANCED WHEN SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR AND LOW END VFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY TONIGHT
ALONG WITH SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE VISIBILITY.

AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST LATE
TONIGHT. IT SHOULD IMPACT OUR TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
ON FRIDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO TAPER TO SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BRING CONDITIONS DOWN INTO THE IFR CATEGORY.

THE WIND SHOULD FAVOR THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT SPEEDS
OF 6 TO 12 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.

SATURDAY...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY, IMPROVING TO MVFR DURING THE DAY WITH
SHOWERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MVFR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEHIND COLD FRONT. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS 20-25 KNOTS BEHIND FRONT.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR. GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
20-25 KNOTS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...PERIODS OF LOWER CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE DUE TO A LIFTING WARM FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT INLAND OVER DELAWARE
OR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS AND ON LOWER DELAWARE BAY. AS A RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. WE HAVE EXTENDED IT UNTIL 1000 AM
FRIDAY ON LOWER DELAWARE BAY.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS WILL FAVOR THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE
AND THEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY 2 TO 4 FEET ON DELAWARE BAY, PERHAPS NEAR
5 FEET AROUND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH
ELEVATED SEAS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WITH
ELEVATED SEAS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. WIND MAY PERIODICALLY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 5 FEET DURING SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIDAL SURGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY AROUND +1.5 FEET OR SLIGHTLY
EXCEED THAT VALUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE CONTINUING NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. AS A RESULT, WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD MINOR AND LOCALIZED MODERATE
TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. WE ARE
FORECASTING MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND FRIDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE
AND MODERATE FLOODING AROUND FRIDAY EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. RATHER THAN
CARRY MULTIPLE HEADLINES, WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A COAST FLOOD WARNING
TO COVER ALL THREE HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

WE CONTINUE TO EXPECTED MINOR FLOODING ON THE FAR UPPER DELAWARE BAY
AND ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER TONIGHT SO THOSE AREAS ARE UNDER AN
ADVISORY. SINCE WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY MODERATE FLOODING ON THE
FAR UPPER DELAWARE BAY AND ON THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, WE WILL
HANDLE EACH OF THEIR HIGH TIDES SEPARATELY, ISSUING ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES AS NEEDED.

WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY TIDAL FLOODING THERE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR NJZ017>019.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO





000
FXUS61 KPHI 051622
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1222 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN
MEANDERS AND WEAKENS AROUND THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD
THEN LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AROUND MIDDAY
WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND.
IT WILL LEAVE A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN ITS WAKE. THE
SURFACE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
OUR REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WIND TRAJECTORY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY FROM NEW ENGLAND
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND IT SHOULD DRAW A BIT OF DRY AIR INTO OUR
REGION IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT, THE BASES OF THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD LIFT SOMEWHAT AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST, MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE MIDDAY TRENDS AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE, THE
MOST LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
APPEARS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN INSTABILITY BURST WILL BE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
NEAR DELAWARE. THUNDER POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY NEAR DELAWARE.
SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WHERE THEY DO OCCUR THOUGH PWAT ONLY
INCREASES TO NEAR 1 INCH. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 MPH. POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED 15 PCT IN LATER FORECAST FOR
LATE TONIGHT.

330 AM FORECAST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS WITH THE POPS MODIFIED BY THE SREF PROBS. WPC QPF 00Z/5 QPF
GRIDS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CONTINUATION OF AN OMEGA
BLOCK FRIDAY, THEN THIS BREAKS DOWN DURING THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS CHANGE OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY, KICKING OUT THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE OMEGA BLOCK. THIS INCOMING TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST LATER SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT MONDAY. A
WEAK RIDGE THEN ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE WARM
FRONT ALSO MOVING THROUGH. THERE COULD BE SOME TRICKINESS THOUGH
NEXT WEEK AS THE NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AREAS AS INCOMING ENERGY SHEARS EASTWARD ALONG IT. AS OF
NOW, IT APPEARS OUR AREA GETS INTO THE TRUE WARM SECTOR NEXT WEEK
HOWEVER IT MAY BE CLOSE ACROSS THE NORTH STARTING WEDNESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED
IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN
MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH TO
START FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTS NORTH AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
A STRONG 500 MB JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
WITH OUR AREA WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION FOR A TIME FRIDAY. THIS
FEATURE THEN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS, WAVES OF STRONGER FORCING GENERALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST. THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 0.75-1.00
INCHES FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY
WITH PERHAPS THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING
PRIOR TO THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW ARRIVING. DESPITE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY, THE PRESENCE
OF THE 500 MB JET STREAK AND A COLD CORE ALOFT /STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS ADDED FOR FRIDAY
/PERHAPS SMALL HAIL OCCURS WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDER/. WE THEN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE STEADY RAIN AND TRANSITION TO SOME SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW SETTLES RIGHT OVER US AND THE
STRONGER FORCING MAY SHIFT WEST AND NORTH.

THE CLOSED LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE COLD CORE ALOFT STILL OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY, SOME
SHOWERS SHOULD STILL OCCUR. WE LOOK TO FINALLY LOSE THE ONSHORE
FLOW COMPONENT SATURDAY, THEREFORE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WHICH COULD PROVIDE A LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR SOME LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HELD OFF INTRODUCING A THUNDER MENTION
ATTM.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE DRIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY START TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AND WITH A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT,
WE INCREASED THE POPS TOWARD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS. THE GREATEST CHC
FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA,
THEREFORE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY EARLY ON. WHILE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST, A WARMER AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASING BREEZE.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING FROM THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE DOWNSTREAM WAA. THIS WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH IT LIFTING
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ENERGY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MAY SHEAR EASTWARD INTO WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, THEREFORE THE WARM FRONT MAY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER PLENTY OF WARMTH SHOULD BE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT, A MUCH WARMER TIME FRAME
IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF
WEATHER. THE PRECIPITATION CHCS ARE NOT ALL THAT CLEAR ATTM AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON POTENTIAL SHEARING ENERGY RUNNING EASTWARD AS THE
WARM FRONTS NORTHWARD PROGRESS SLOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CIGS ARE FORECAST TO SETTLE BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FT FOR THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY LIFTING TO VFR CIGS DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTY 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT I95
REGION EASTWARD AND LESS THAN 18 KT VCNTY KRDG AND KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS TO START BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DEGRADE TO MVFR
OR IFR IN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SOMETIME AFTER 03Z/6. NORTHEAST WIND...
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
THEN THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH THIS BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AT NIGHT,
THEN A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS
MAINLY AROUND 10 KNOTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN TURNING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY. SOME SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AS SOME
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT, THEN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS
EARLY, BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25 TO
30 KT AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET. SCA FOR LOWER DE BAY IS MARGINAL
FOR A FEW GUSTS 25 KT MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY BEFORE MEANDERING AND
DISSIPATING THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW
FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL
ALLOW FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATER IN
THE DAY. THE FLOW THEN DECREASES FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHERLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT THEN MOVES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD
GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SEAS ON OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE
5 FEET INTO SATURDAY, THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
AS THE WINDS LESSEN FOR A TIME AND TURN SOUTHERLY SATURDAY. THE
SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW 5 FEET SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
BASED ON THIS MORNING`S TIDAL SURGE OF +1.0 TO +1.5 FEET ALONG
THE COAST, WE HAVE CONTINUED THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THIS
EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS COULD GET CLOSE TO THEIR MODERATE
THRESHOLD LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. MEANWHILE, THE SURGE HAS ALREADY
INCREASED TO AROUND +1.0 ON THE EXTREME LOWER PART OF THE TIDAL
DELAWARE RIVER, SO WE HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE
TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER, AS WELL.

THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY DUE TO THE NEW MOON.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS AGAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AROUND THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON FRIDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING IS
LIKELY WITH FRIDAY EVENING`S HIGH TIDE AND SOME MODERATE FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME. WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE THE HIGHEST WATER
LEVELS OF THIS STRETCH ON FRIDAY EVENING. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR THAT TIDE CYCLE. ADDITIONAL MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

MINOR FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER ON
FRIDAY AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR NJZ017>019.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO





000
FXUS61 KPHI 051338
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN
MEANDERS AND WEAKENS AROUND THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD
THEN LIFT ACROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST THIS MORNING
WILL PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND.
IT WILL LEAVE A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN ITS WAKE. THE
SURFACE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN
OUR REGION FOR TODAY.

THE WIND TRAJECTORY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY FROM NEW ENGLAND
FOR TODAY AND IT SHOULD DRAW A BIT OF DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION IN
THE LOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT, THE BASES OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT SOMEWHAT AND THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST,
MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF PRECIPITATION FOR TODAY. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
APPEARS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN INSTABILITY BURST WILL BE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
NEAR DELAWARE. THUNDER POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY NEAR DELAWARE.
SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WHERE THEY DO OCCUR THOUGH PWAT ONLY
INCREASES TO NEAR 1 INCH. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 MPH. POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED 15 PCT IN LATER FORECAST FOR
LATE TONIGHT.

330 AM FORECAST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS WITH THE POPS MODIFIED BY THE SREF PROBS. WPC QPF 00Z/5 QPF
GRIDS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CONTINUATION OF AN OMEGA
BLOCK FRIDAY, THEN THIS BREAKS DOWN DURING THE COURSE OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS CHANGE OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY, KICKING OUT THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE OMEGA BLOCK. THIS INCOMING TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST LATER SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT MONDAY. A
WEAK RIDGE THEN ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE WARM
FRONT ALSO MOVING THROUGH. THERE COULD BE SOME TRICKINESS THOUGH
NEXT WEEK AS THE NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AREAS AS INCOMING ENERGY SHEARS EASTWARD ALONG IT. AS OF
NOW, IT APPEARS OUR AREA GETS INTO THE TRUE WARM SECTOR NEXT WEEK
HOWEVER IT MAY BE CLOSE ACROSS THE NORTH STARTING WEDNESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED
IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN
MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH TO
START FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTS NORTH AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
A STRONG 500 MB JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW
WITH OUR AREA WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION FOR A TIME FRIDAY. THIS
FEATURE THEN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS, WAVES OF STRONGER FORCING GENERALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST
TO NORTHWEST. THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 0.75-1.00
INCHES FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY
WITH PERHAPS THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING
PRIOR TO THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW ARRIVING. DESPITE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY, THE PRESENCE
OF THE 500 MB JET STREAK AND A COLD CORE ALOFT /STEEPENING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS ADDED FOR FRIDAY
/PERHAPS SMALL HAIL OCCURS WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDER/. WE THEN
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THE STEADY RAIN AND TRANSITION TO SOME SHOWERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE CLOSED LOW SETTLES RIGHT OVER US AND THE
STRONGER FORCING MAY SHIFT WEST AND NORTH.

THE CLOSED LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE COLD CORE ALOFT STILL OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY, SOME
SHOWERS SHOULD STILL OCCUR. WE LOOK TO FINALLY LOSE THE ONSHORE
FLOW COMPONENT SATURDAY, THEREFORE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WHICH COULD PROVIDE A LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR SOME LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HELD OFF INTRODUCING A THUNDER MENTION
ATTM.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE DRIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY START TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AND WITH A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT,
WE INCREASED THE POPS TOWARD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS. THE GREATEST CHC
FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA,
THEREFORE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY EARLY ON. WHILE A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST, A WARMER AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASING BREEZE.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING FROM THE
PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE DOWNSTREAM WAA. THIS WILL
PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH IT LIFTING
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ENERGY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MAY SHEAR EASTWARD INTO WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, THEREFORE THE WARM FRONT MAY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF OUR
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER PLENTY OF WARMTH SHOULD BE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT, A MUCH WARMER TIME FRAME
IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF
WEATHER. THE PRECIPITATION CHCS ARE NOT ALL THAT CLEAR ATTM AS IT
WILL DEPEND ON POTENTIAL SHEARING ENERGY RUNNING EASTWARD AS THE
WARM FRONTS NORTHWARD PROGRESS SLOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ANY IFR CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FT BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY TO VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY
LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD QUIT BY 16Z. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTY 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT I95 REGION EASTWARD AND LESS THAN
18 KT VCNTY KRDG AND KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS TO START BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DEGRADE TO MVFR
OR IFR IN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SOMETIME AFTER 03Z/6. NORTHEAST WIND...
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
THEN THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF RAIN FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH THIS BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AT NIGHT,
THEN A FEW SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS
MAINLY AROUND 10 KNOTS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN TURNING
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY. SOME SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AS SOME
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT, THEN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS
EARLY, BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25 TO
30 KT AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET. SCA FOR LOWER DE BAY IS MARGINAL
FOR A FEW GUSTS 25 KT MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY BEFORE MEANDERING AND
DISSIPATING THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW
FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL
ALLOW FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATER IN
THE DAY. THE FLOW THEN DECREASES FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHERLY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT THEN MOVES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD
GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. SEAS ON OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE
5 FEET INTO SATURDAY, THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
AS THE WINDS LESSEN FOR A TIME AND TURN SOUTHERLY SATURDAY. THE
SEAS SHOULD THEN BE BELOW 5 FEET SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MAXIMUM WEDNESDAY EVENING TIDES ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS WERE
WITHIN 1 INCH OF THE MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION FLOOD THRESHOLD WITH
SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 1.2 FEET.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE AT
LEAST 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET FOR BOTH OF TODAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES. AND
ANOTHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING AT 330 AM. THOSE VALUES
ALONG WITH THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH
FRIDAY`S NEW MOON WILL RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS AT HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING.

THIS MORNINGS ADVISORY ALONG THE DE COAST WILL BE MARGINAL,
SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING. ALONG THE OCEANFRONT THE INCOMING WAVES
WILL BE A FOOT OR 2 HIGHER THAN THOSE OF LAST EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY, WE MAY BE EXTENDING THE CF ADVISORY TO THE TIDAL DE
RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE COMMODORE BARRY BRIDGE INTO THE EXTREME
UPPER PART OF DE BAY (REEDY POINT LINK) FOR THE LATE THURSDAY
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO THE ASTRONOMICAL
COMPONENT OF THE TIDES. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT NEED MUCH OF A
POSITIVE SURGE DEPARTURE ESPECIALLY WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
LEADING UP TO THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. AS A RESULT, MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
COAST AND UP DELAWARE BAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KPHI 051057
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
657 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN MEANDERS AND
WEAKENS AROUND THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT ACROSS OUR
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OTHERWISE A GENERALLY
RAINFREE DAY. HRRR IS FIRING UP SOME SHOWERS MIDDAY VCNTY DE BAY
AND THEN SE PA AND SNJ THIS AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS WELL BELOW AVG
REGARDING THIS OCCURRENCE. TEMPS NEARLY STEADY THROUGH SUNRISE
THEN ONLY SMALL RISES DURING THE DAY WITH COLD AIR UNDERRUNNING
NORTHEAST WIND ADVECTION FROM THE RESERVOIR OF COOLER WET BULBS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAX TEMPS MAYBE 15 BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NORTHEAST
WIND 20 TO 25 MPH DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

FCST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM MOS. POPS...USED THE
HRRR TO KEEP THE MORNING-MIDDAY DRY (EXCEPTING SPOTTY DRIZZLE S
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA). CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON ALL
EXCEPT WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MIDDAY-THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
APPEARS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN INSTABILITY BURST WILL BE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
NEAR DELAWARE. THUNDER POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY NEAR DELAWARE.
SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WHERE THEY DO OCCUR THOUGH PWAT ONLY
INCREASES TO NEAR 1 INCH. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 MPH. POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED 15 PCT IN LATER FORECAST FOR
LATE TONIGHT.

330 AM FORECAST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS WITH THE POPS MODIFIED BY THE SREF PROBS. WPC QPF 00Z/5 QPF
GRIDS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CONTINUATION OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
FRIDAY, THEN THIS BREAKS DOWN DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS
CHANGE OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY, KICKING OUT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE OMEGA
BLOCK. THIS INCOMING TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE THEN
ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT ALSO MOVING
THROUGH. THERE COULD BE SOME TRICKINESS THOUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS AS
INCOMING ENERGY SHEARS EASTWARD ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS OUR
AREA GETS INTO THE TRUE WARM SECTOR NEXT WEEK HOWEVER IT MAY BE
CLOSE ACROSS THE NORTH STARTING WEDNESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
APPROACH FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH TO
START FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTS NORTH AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
STRONG 500 MB JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW WITH
OUR AREA WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION FOR A TIME FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE
THEN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS,
WAVES OF STRONGER FORCING GENERALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 0.75-1.00 INCHES
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS THE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING PRIOR TO THE
CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW ARRIVING. DESPITE FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY, THE PRESENCE OF THE 500 MB
JET STREAK AND A COLD CORE ALOFT /STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS ADDED FOR FRIDAY /PERHAPS SMALL HAIL
OCCURS WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDER/. WE THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THE STEADY RAIN AND TRANSITION TO SOME SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
CLOSED LOW SETTLES RIGHT OVER US AND THE STRONGER FORCING MAY
SHIFT WEST AND NORTH.

THE CLOSED LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE COLD CORE ALOFT STILL OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY, SOME SHOWERS
SHOULD STILL OCCUR. WE LOOK TO FINALLY LOSE THE ONSHORE FLOW
COMPONENT SATURDAY, THEREFORE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WHICH COULD PROVIDE A LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR SOME LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HELD OFF INTRODUCING A THUNDER MENTION
ATTM.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE DRIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY START TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AND WITH A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT, WE
INCREASED THE POPS TOWARD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS. THE GREATEST CHC
FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA,
THEREFORE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY EARLY ON. WHILE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, A
WARMER AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING BREEZE.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING FROM THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE DOWNSTREAM WAA. THIS WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH IT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR
NORTH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ENERGY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW MAY SHEAR EASTWARD INTO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THEREFORE THE WARM
FRONT MAY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES,
HOWEVER PLENTY OF WARMTH SHOULD BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT, A MUCH WARMER TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WEATHER. THE PRECIPITATION CHCS
ARE NOT ALL THAT CLEAR ATTM AS IT WILL DEPEND ON POTENTIAL SHEARING
ENERGY RUNNING EASTWARD AS THE WARM FRONTS NORTHWARD PROGRESS
SLOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...CIGS VARIABLE BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 FT WITH POCKETS
OF 2-5MI DRIZZLE. BEST CHANCE IFR CONDS MAINLY VCNTY KPHL/KILG/KMIV/KACY.
NORTHEAST GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

AFTER 12Z...ANY IFR CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND
3000 FT BY MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY TO VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD QUIT BY 16Z. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTY 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT I95 REGION EASTWARD AND LESS THAN
18 KT VCNTY KRDG AND KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS TO START BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DEGRADE TO MVFR
OR IFR IN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SOMETIME AFTER 03Z/6. NORTHEAST WIND...
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN
THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF RAIN FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES WITH THIS BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AT NIGHT, THEN A FEW SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY.
SOME SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AS SOME SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT, THEN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY,
BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25 TO 30
KT AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET. SCA FOR LOWER DE BAY IS MARGINAL FOR A
FEW GUSTS 25 KT MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY BEFORE MEANDERING AND
DISSIPATING THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL ALLOW
FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATER IN THE DAY.
THE FLOW THEN DECREASES FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT THEN MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD GUST TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SEAS ON OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
INTO SATURDAY, THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS THE
WINDS LESSEN FOR A TIME AND TURN SOUTHERLY SATURDAY. THE SEAS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW 5 FEET SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MAXIMUM WEDNESDAY EVENING TIDES ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS WERE
WITHIN 1 INCH OF THE MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION FLOOD THRESHOLD WITH
SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 1.2 FEET.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE
AT LEAST 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET FOR BOTH OF TODAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
AND ANOTHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING AT 330 AM. THOSE
VALUES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH
FRIDAY`S NEW MOON WILL RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS AT HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY THIS
THURSDAY EVENING.

THIS MORNINGS ADVISORY ALONG THE DE COAST WILL BE MARGINAL, SIMILAR
TO LAST EVENING. ALONG THE OCEANFRONT THE INCOMING WAVES WILL BE A
FOOT OR 2 HIGHER THAN THOSE OF LAST EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY, THE DAY SHIFT MAY BE EXTENDING THE CF ADVISORY TO
THE TIDAL DE RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE COMMODORE BARRY BRIDGE INTO
THE EXTREME UPPER PART OF DE BAY (REEDY POINT LINK) FOR THE LATE
THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO THE ASTRONOMICAL
COMPONENT OF THE TIDES. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT NEED MUCH OF A
POSITIVE SURGE DEPARTURE ESPECIALLY WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
LEADING UP TO THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. AS A RESULT, MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
COAST AND UP DELAWARE BAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG  658
SHORT TERM...DRAG 658
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 658
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 658
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...658





000
FXUS61 KPHI 051057
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
657 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN MEANDERS AND
WEAKENS AROUND THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT ACROSS OUR
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OTHERWISE A GENERALLY
RAINFREE DAY. HRRR IS FIRING UP SOME SHOWERS MIDDAY VCNTY DE BAY
AND THEN SE PA AND SNJ THIS AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS WELL BELOW AVG
REGARDING THIS OCCURRENCE. TEMPS NEARLY STEADY THROUGH SUNRISE
THEN ONLY SMALL RISES DURING THE DAY WITH COLD AIR UNDERRUNNING
NORTHEAST WIND ADVECTION FROM THE RESERVOIR OF COOLER WET BULBS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAX TEMPS MAYBE 15 BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NORTHEAST
WIND 20 TO 25 MPH DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

FCST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM MOS. POPS...USED THE
HRRR TO KEEP THE MORNING-MIDDAY DRY (EXCEPTING SPOTTY DRIZZLE S
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA). CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON ALL
EXCEPT WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MIDDAY-THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
APPEARS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN INSTABILITY BURST WILL BE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
NEAR DELAWARE. THUNDER POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY NEAR DELAWARE.
SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WHERE THEY DO OCCUR THOUGH PWAT ONLY
INCREASES TO NEAR 1 INCH. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 MPH. POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED 15 PCT IN LATER FORECAST FOR
LATE TONIGHT.

330 AM FORECAST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS WITH THE POPS MODIFIED BY THE SREF PROBS. WPC QPF 00Z/5 QPF
GRIDS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CONTINUATION OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
FRIDAY, THEN THIS BREAKS DOWN DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS
CHANGE OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY, KICKING OUT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE OMEGA
BLOCK. THIS INCOMING TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE THEN
ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT ALSO MOVING
THROUGH. THERE COULD BE SOME TRICKINESS THOUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS AS
INCOMING ENERGY SHEARS EASTWARD ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS OUR
AREA GETS INTO THE TRUE WARM SECTOR NEXT WEEK HOWEVER IT MAY BE
CLOSE ACROSS THE NORTH STARTING WEDNESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
APPROACH FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH TO
START FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTS NORTH AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
STRONG 500 MB JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW WITH
OUR AREA WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION FOR A TIME FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE
THEN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS,
WAVES OF STRONGER FORCING GENERALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 0.75-1.00 INCHES
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS THE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING PRIOR TO THE
CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW ARRIVING. DESPITE FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY, THE PRESENCE OF THE 500 MB
JET STREAK AND A COLD CORE ALOFT /STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS ADDED FOR FRIDAY /PERHAPS SMALL HAIL
OCCURS WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDER/. WE THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THE STEADY RAIN AND TRANSITION TO SOME SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
CLOSED LOW SETTLES RIGHT OVER US AND THE STRONGER FORCING MAY
SHIFT WEST AND NORTH.

THE CLOSED LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE COLD CORE ALOFT STILL OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY, SOME SHOWERS
SHOULD STILL OCCUR. WE LOOK TO FINALLY LOSE THE ONSHORE FLOW
COMPONENT SATURDAY, THEREFORE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WHICH COULD PROVIDE A LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR SOME LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HELD OFF INTRODUCING A THUNDER MENTION
ATTM.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE DRIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY START TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AND WITH A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT, WE
INCREASED THE POPS TOWARD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS. THE GREATEST CHC
FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA,
THEREFORE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY EARLY ON. WHILE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, A
WARMER AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING BREEZE.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING FROM THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE DOWNSTREAM WAA. THIS WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH IT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR
NORTH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ENERGY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW MAY SHEAR EASTWARD INTO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THEREFORE THE WARM
FRONT MAY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES,
HOWEVER PLENTY OF WARMTH SHOULD BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT, A MUCH WARMER TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WEATHER. THE PRECIPITATION CHCS
ARE NOT ALL THAT CLEAR ATTM AS IT WILL DEPEND ON POTENTIAL SHEARING
ENERGY RUNNING EASTWARD AS THE WARM FRONTS NORTHWARD PROGRESS
SLOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...CIGS VARIABLE BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 FT WITH POCKETS
OF 2-5MI DRIZZLE. BEST CHANCE IFR CONDS MAINLY VCNTY KPHL/KILG/KMIV/KACY.
NORTHEAST GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

AFTER 12Z...ANY IFR CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND
3000 FT BY MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY TO VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD QUIT BY 16Z. NORTHEAST
WIND GUSTY 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT I95 REGION EASTWARD AND LESS THAN
18 KT VCNTY KRDG AND KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS TO START BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DEGRADE TO MVFR
OR IFR IN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SOMETIME AFTER 03Z/6. NORTHEAST WIND...
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN
THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF RAIN FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES WITH THIS BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AT NIGHT, THEN A FEW SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY.
SOME SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AS SOME SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT, THEN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY,
BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25 TO 30
KT AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET. SCA FOR LOWER DE BAY IS MARGINAL FOR A
FEW GUSTS 25 KT MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY BEFORE MEANDERING AND
DISSIPATING THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL ALLOW
FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATER IN THE DAY.
THE FLOW THEN DECREASES FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT THEN MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD GUST TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SEAS ON OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
INTO SATURDAY, THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS THE
WINDS LESSEN FOR A TIME AND TURN SOUTHERLY SATURDAY. THE SEAS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW 5 FEET SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MAXIMUM WEDNESDAY EVENING TIDES ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS WERE
WITHIN 1 INCH OF THE MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION FLOOD THRESHOLD WITH
SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 1.2 FEET.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE
AT LEAST 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET FOR BOTH OF TODAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
AND ANOTHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING AT 330 AM. THOSE
VALUES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH
FRIDAY`S NEW MOON WILL RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS AT HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY THIS
THURSDAY EVENING.

THIS MORNINGS ADVISORY ALONG THE DE COAST WILL BE MARGINAL, SIMILAR
TO LAST EVENING. ALONG THE OCEANFRONT THE INCOMING WAVES WILL BE A
FOOT OR 2 HIGHER THAN THOSE OF LAST EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY, THE DAY SHIFT MAY BE EXTENDING THE CF ADVISORY TO
THE TIDAL DE RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE COMMODORE BARRY BRIDGE INTO
THE EXTREME UPPER PART OF DE BAY (REEDY POINT LINK) FOR THE LATE
THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO THE ASTRONOMICAL
COMPONENT OF THE TIDES. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT NEED MUCH OF A
POSITIVE SURGE DEPARTURE ESPECIALLY WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
LEADING UP TO THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. AS A RESULT, MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
COAST AND UP DELAWARE BAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG  658
SHORT TERM...DRAG 658
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 658
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 658
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...658





000
FXUS61 KPHI 050916
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
516 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN MEANDERS AND
WEAKENS AROUND THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT ACROSS OUR
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OTHERWISE A GENERALLY
RAINFREE DAY. HRRR IS FIRING UP SOME SHOWERS MIDDAY VCNTY DE BAY
AND THEN SE PA AND SNJ THIS AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG ON IF
THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN. TEMPS NEARLY STEADY THROUGH SUNRISE THEN
ONLY SMALL RISES DURING THE DAY WITH COLD AIR UNDERRUNNING NORTHEAST
WIND ADVECTION FROM THE RESERVOIR OF COOLER WET BULBS OVER NEW
ENGLAND. MAX TEMPS MAYBE 15 BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND 20
TO 25 MPH DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

FCST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM MOS. POPS...USED THE
HRRR TO KEEP THE MORNING-MIDDAY DRY (EXCEPTING SPOTTY DRIZZLE S
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA). CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON ALL
EXCEPT WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP MIDDAY-THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
APPEARS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN INSTABILITY BURST WILL BE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
NEAR DELAWARE. THUNDER POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY NEAR DELAWARE.
SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WHERE THEY DO OCCUR THOUGH PWAT ONLY
INCREASES TO NEAR 1 INCH. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 MPH. POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED 15 PCT IN LATER FORECAST FOR
LATE TONIGHT.

330 AM FORECAST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS WITH THE POPS MODIFIED BY THE SREF PROBS. WPC QPF 00Z/5 QPF
GRIDS USED.

AM AWARE WAS MUCH TOO HIGH ON POPS YDY DURING THE DAY KTTN SOUTHWEST
THROUGH PHL/ILG/ESN AND MISSED THE THUNDER COASTAL NJ/DE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CONTINUATION OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
FRIDAY, THEN THIS BREAKS DOWN DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS
CHANGE OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY, KICKING OUT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE OMEGA
BLOCK. THIS INCOMING TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE THEN
ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT ALSO MOVING
THROUGH. THERE COULD BE SOME TRICKINESS THOUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS AS
INCOMING ENERGY SHEARS EASTWARD ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS OUR
AREA GETS INTO THE TRUE WARM SECTOR NEXT WEEK HOWEVER IT MAY BE
CLOSE ACROSS THE NORTH STARTING WEDNESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
APPROACH FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH TO
START FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTS NORTH AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
STRONG 500 MB JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW WITH
OUR AREA WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION FOR A TIME FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE
THEN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS,
WAVES OF STRONGER FORCING GENERALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 0.75-1.00 INCHES
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS THE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING PRIOR TO THE
CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW ARRIVING. DESPITE FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY, THE PRESENCE OF THE 500 MB
JET STREAK AND A COLD CORE ALOFT /STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS ADDED FOR FRIDAY /PERHAPS SMALL HAIL
OCCURS WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDER/. WE THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THE STEADY RAIN AND TRANSITION TO SOME SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
CLOSED LOW SETTLES RIGHT OVER US AND THE STRONGER FORCING MAY
SHIFT WEST AND NORTH.

THE CLOSED LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE COLD CORE ALOFT STILL OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY, SOME SHOWERS
SHOULD STILL OCCUR. WE LOOK TO FINALLY LOSE THE ONSHORE FLOW
COMPONENT SATURDAY, THEREFORE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WHICH COULD PROVIDE A LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR SOME LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HELD OFF INTRODUCING A THUNDER MENTION
ATTM.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE DRIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY START TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AND WITH A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT, WE
INCREASED THE POPS TOWARD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS. THE GREATEST CHC
FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA,
THEREFORE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY EARLY ON. WHILE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, A
WARMER AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING BREEZE.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING FROM THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE DOWNSTREAM WAA. THIS WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH IT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR
NORTH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ENERGY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW MAY SHEAR EASTWARD INTO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THEREFORE THE WARM
FRONT MAY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES,
HOWEVER PLENTY OF WARMTH SHOULD BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT, A MUCH WARMER TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WEATHER. THE PRECIPITATION CHCS
ARE NOT ALL THAT CLEAR ATTM AS IT WILL DEPEND ON POTENTIAL SHEARING
ENERGY RUNNING EASTWARD AS THE WARM FRONTS NORTHWARD PROGRESS
SLOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...CIGS VARIABLE BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 FT WITH POCKETS
OF 2MI DRIZZLE. IFR CONDS MAINLY VCNTY KPHL/KILG/KMIV/KACY.
NORTHEAST GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

AFTER 12Z...CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FT BY
MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY TO VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING
DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD QUIT BY 14Z. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTY
20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT I95 REGION EASTWARD AND LESS THAN 18 KT VCNTY
KRDG AND KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS TO START BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DEGRADE TO MVFR
OR IFR IN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SOMETIME AFTER 03Z/6. NORTHEAST WIND...
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN
THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF RAIN FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES WITH THIS BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AT NIGHT, THEN A FEW SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY.
SOME SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AS SOME SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT, THEN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY,
BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25 TO 30
KT AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET. WILL ADD AN SCA TO LOWER DE BAY IN THE
330 AM FORECAST ISSUANCE WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL OCCUR.

OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY BEFORE MEANDERING AND
DISSIPATING THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL ALLOW
FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATER IN THE DAY.
THE FLOW THEN DECREASES FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT THEN MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD GUST TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SEAS ON OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
INTO SATURDAY, THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS THE
WINDS LESSEN FOR A TIME AND TURN SOUTHERLY SATURDAY. THE SEAS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW 5 FEET SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MAXIMUM WEDNESDAY EVENING TIDES ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS WERE
WITHIN 1 INCH OF THE MINOR TIDAL INUNDATION FLOOD THRESHOLD WITH
SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 1.2 FEET.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE
AT LEAST 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET FOR BOTH OF TODAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
AND ANOTHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THIS MORNING AT 330 AM. THOSE
VALUES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH
FRIDAY`S NEW MOON WILL RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS AT HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY THIS
THURSDAY EVENING.

THIS MORNINGS ADVISORY ALONG THE DE COAST WILL BE MARGINAL, SIMILAR
TO LAST EVENING. ALONG THE OCEANFRONT THE INCOMING WAVES WILL BE A
FOOT OR 2 HIGHER THAN THOSE OF LAST EVENING.

ADDITIONALLY, THE DAY SHIFT MAY BE EXTENDING THE CF ADVISORY TO
THE TIDAL DE RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE COMMODORE BARRY BRIDGE INTO
THE EXTREME UPPER PART OF DE BAY (REEDY POINT LINK) FOR THE LATE
THURSDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO THE ASTRONOMICAL
COMPONENT OF THE TIDES. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT NEED MUCH OF A
POSITIVE SURGE DEPARTURE ESPECIALLY WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
LEADING UP TO THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. AS A RESULT, MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
COAST AND UP DELAWARE BAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 516A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 516A
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 516A
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 516A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...516A





000
FXUS61 KPHI 050732
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN MEANDERS AND
WEAKENS AROUND THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT SHOULD THEN LIFT ACROSS OUR
AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLOUDY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OTHERWISE A RAINFREE
DAY. TEMPS NEARLY STEADY THROUGH SUNRISE THEN ONLY SMALL RISES DURING
THE DAY WITH COLD AIR UNDERRUNNING NORTHEAST WIND ADVECTION FROM
THE RESERVOIR OF COOLER WET BULBS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAX TEMPS
MAYBE 15 BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 25 MPH DURING
MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

FCST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM MOS. POPS...USED THE
HRRR TO KEEP THE MORNING-MIDDAY DRY (EXCEPTING SPOTTY DRIZZLE S
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA). CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON ALL BUT
WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
APPEARS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN INSTABILITY BURST WILL BE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
NEAR DELAWARE. THUNDER POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY NEAR DELAWARE.
SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WHERE THEY DO OCCUR THOUGH PWAT ONLY
INCREASES TO NEAR 1 INCH. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 MPH.

FORECAST BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM MOS WITH THE
POPS MODIFIED BY THE SREF PROBS. WPC QPF 00Z/5 QPF GRIDS USED.

AM AWARE WAS MUCH TOO HIGH ON POPS YDY DURING THE DAY KTTN SOUTHWEST
THROUGH PHL/ILG/ESN AND MISSED THE THUNDER COASTAL NJ/DE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CONTINUATION OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
FRIDAY, THEN THIS BREAKS DOWN DURING THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. THIS
CHANGE OCCURS AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
CENTRAL CANADA FRIDAY, KICKING OUT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE OMEGA
BLOCK. THIS INCOMING TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE THEN
ARRIVES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT ALSO MOVING
THROUGH. THERE COULD BE SOME TRICKINESS THOUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE
NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS AS
INCOMING ENERGY SHEARS EASTWARD ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT APPEARS OUR
AREA GETS INTO THE TRUE WARM SECTOR NEXT WEEK HOWEVER IT MAY BE
CLOSE ACROSS THE NORTH STARTING WEDNESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
APPROACH FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH TO
START FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OUR AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTS NORTH AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
STRONG 500 MB JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE CLOSED LOW WITH
OUR AREA WITHIN THE LEFT EXIT REGION FOR A TIME FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE
THEN SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS,
WAVES OF STRONGER FORCING GENERALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST. THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 0.75-1.00 INCHES
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE FROM
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE COURSE OF FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS THE
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING IN THE MORNING PRIOR TO THE
CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW ARRIVING. DESPITE FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT
SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY, THE PRESENCE OF THE 500 MB
JET STREAK AND A COLD CORE ALOFT /STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/
A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER WAS ADDED FOR FRIDAY /PERHAPS SMALL HAIL
OCCURS WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDER/. WE THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
THE STEADY RAIN AND TRANSITION TO SOME SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
CLOSED LOW SETTLES RIGHT OVER US AND THE STRONGER FORCING MAY
SHIFT WEST AND NORTH.

THE CLOSED LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO BE OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY
HOWEVER IT LOOKS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN UP SATURDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THE COLD CORE ALOFT STILL OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY, SOME SHOWERS
SHOULD STILL OCCUR. WE LOOK TO FINALLY LOSE THE ONSHORE FLOW
COMPONENT SATURDAY, THEREFORE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE
ANTICIPATED WHICH COULD PROVIDE A LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR SOME LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH
INSTABILITY AND THEREFORE HELD OFF INTRODUCING A THUNDER MENTION
ATTM.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE DRIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO OUR AREA TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY START TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AND WITH A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT, WE
INCREASED THE POPS TOWARD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS. THE GREATEST CHC
FOR SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA,
THEREFORE RAISED POPS TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY EARLY ON. WHILE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE FLOW SHIFTS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST, A
WARMER AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS ALONG WITH AN
INCREASING BREEZE.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SOME RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING FROM THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE DOWNSTREAM WAA. THIS WILL PUSH A
WARM FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY WITH IT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR
NORTH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE ENERGY WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
LOW MAY SHEAR EASTWARD INTO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, THEREFORE THE WARM
FRONT MAY STALL IN THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY. THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR TEMPERATURES,
HOWEVER PLENTY OF WARMTH SHOULD BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH. AS A
RESULT, A MUCH WARMER TIME FRAME IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF WEATHER. THE PRECIPITATION CHCS
ARE NOT ALL THAT CLEAR ATTM AS IT WILL DEPEND ON POTENTIAL SHEARING
ENERGY RUNNING EASTWARD AS THE WARM FRONTS NORTHWARD PROGRESS
SLOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...CIGS VARIABLE BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 FT WITH POCKETS
OF 2MI DRIZZLE. IFR CONDS MAINLY VCNTY KPHL/KILG/KMIV/KACY.
NORTHEAST GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

AFTER 12Z...CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FT BY
MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY TO VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING
DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD QUIT BY 14Z. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTY
20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT I95 REGION EASTWARD AND LESS THAN 18 KT VCNTY
KRDG AND KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS TO START BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DEGRADE TO MVFR
OR IFR IN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SOMETIME AFTER 03Z/6. NORTHEAST WIND...
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN
THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF RAIN FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES WITH THIS BECOMING MORE SHOWERY AT NIGHT, THEN A FEW SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN TURNING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SATURDAY.
SOME SHOWERS SHOULD ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AS SOME SHOWERS
MOVE THROUGH WITH A COLD FRONT, THEN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS EARLY,
BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25 TO 30
KT AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET. WILL ADD AN SCA TO LOWER DE BAY IN THE
330 AM FORECAST ISSUANCE WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL OCCUR.

OUTLOOK...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY BEFORE MEANDERING AND
DISSIPATING THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WILL ALLOW
FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATER IN THE DAY.
THE FLOW THEN DECREASES FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT THEN MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD GUST TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SEAS ON OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET
INTO SATURDAY, THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS THE
WINDS LESSEN FOR A TIME AND TURN SOUTHERLY SATURDAY. THE SEAS SHOULD
THEN BE BELOW 5 FEET SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MAXIMUM WEDNESDAY EVENING TIDES WERE WITHIN 1 INCH OF THE MINOR
TIDAL INUNDATION FLOOD THRESHOLD WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 1.2
FEET ALONG THE NJ AND DE ATLC COASTS.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE
AT LEAST 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET FOR BOTH OF TODAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
AND WILL NECESSITATE ANOTHER ADVISORY ISSUANCE AT 330 AM. THOSE
VALUES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH
FRIDAY`S NEW MOON WILL RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS AT HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY THIS THURSDAY
EVENING.

WE HAVE A MORNING AND AN EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ADVISORY PLANNED
FOR DE.

ADDITIONALLY, THE DAY SHIFT MAY BE EXTENDING THE CF ADVISORY TO THE
TIDAL DE RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE COMMODORE BARRY BRIDGE AND THE
EXTREME UPPER PART OF DE BAY (REEDY POINT LINK) FOR THE LATE THURSDAY
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

THE NEW MOON ON FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO THE ASTRONOMICAL
COMPONENT OF THE TIDES. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT NEED MUCH OF A
POSITIVE SURGE DEPARTURE ESPECIALLY WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW
LEADING UP TO THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. AS A RESULT, MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
COAST AND UP DELAWARE BAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 050630
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
230 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS EAST OF CAPE COD
LATE TODAY WHILE ANOTHER LOW LAGS BEHIND EAST OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES.
THAT SECOND LOW WILL PROCEED NORTHWARD TOWARD NEW JERSEY FRIDAY...
THEN SHOULD EDGE EAST OUT TO SEA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY WELCOMED HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CLOUDY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING OTHERWISE A RAINFREE
DAY. TEMPS NEARLY STEADY THROUGH SUNRISE THEN ONLY SMALL RISES DURING
THE DAY WITH COLD AIR UNDERRUNNING NORTHEAST WIND ADVECTION FROM
THE RESERVOIR OF COOLER WET BULBS OVER NEW ENGLAND. MAX TEMPS
MAYBE 15 BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 25 MPH DURING
MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

FCST WAS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM MOS. POPS...USED THE
HRRR TO KEEP THE MORNING-MIDDAY DRY (EXCEPTING SPOTTY DRIZZLE S
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA). CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ON ALL BUT
WHETHER ANY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
APPEARS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN INSTABILITY BURST WILL BE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
NEAR DELAWARE. THUNDER POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY NEAR DELAWARE.
SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WHERE THEY DO OCCUR THOUGH PWAT ONLY
INCREASES TO NEAR 1 INCH. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 MPH.

FORECAST BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/5 GFS/NAM MOS WITH THE
POPS MODIFIED BY THE SREF PROBS. WPC QPF 00Z/5 QPF GRIDS USED.

AM AWARE WAS MUCH TOO HIGH ON POPS YDY DURING THE DAY KTTN SOUTHWEST
THROUGH PHL/ILG/ESN AND MISSED THE THUNDER COASTAL NJ/DE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: DUAL LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE THE GRAY
AND DREARY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE FIRST
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST OFF
CAPE COD WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN THE TRAILING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW
MODELING IS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF COULD REACH HALF AN
INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE DAYS
WITH HIGHS THAN WHAT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AND WARMER AT
NIGHT,HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE
DRIER THAN INDICATED IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. HOWEVER, AN
EQUAL POSSIBILITY IS PRESENT THAT THE SECOND LOW WILL LINGER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES WARMER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY THAN WHAT VARIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES INDICATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE ULTIMATE KICKER FOR THE STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR YET ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOME
CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY DAYS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WARM FRONT DIVIDING A COOLER
MORE MARINE AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THIS WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE FRONT MAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80`S BY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERED THIS CHANGE IN MODELING KEEPING SOME
CONTINUITY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR,
BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO ACCESS THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...CIGS VARIABLE BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 FT WITH POCKETS
OF 2MI DRIZZLE. IFR CONDS MAINLY VCNTY KPHL/KILG/KMIV/KACY.
NORTHEAST GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

AFTER 12Z...CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 FT BY
MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY TO VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING
DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD QUIT BY 14Z. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTY
20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT I95 REGION EASTWARD AND LESS THAN 18 KT VCNTY
KRDG AND KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS TO START BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD DEGRADE TO MVFR
OR IFR IN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE SOMETIME AFTER 03Z/6. NORTHEAST WIND...
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

MONDAY: VFR, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25 TO 30
KT AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET. WILL ADD AN SCA TO LOWER DE BAY IN THE
330 AM FORECAST ISSUANCE WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL OCCUR.

OUTLOOK...

AN SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN
AT OR JUST OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL DECREASE FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS IS LIKELY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MAXIMUM WEDNESDAY EVENING TIDES WERE WITHIN 1 INCH OF THE MINOR
TIDAL INUNDATION FLOOD THRESHOLD WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 1.2
FEET ALONG THE NJ AND DE ATLC COASTS.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE
AT LEAST 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET FOR BOTH OF TODAYS HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
AND WILL NECESSITATE ANOTHER ADVISORY ISSUANCE AT 330 AM. THOSE
VALUES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH
FRIDAY`S NEW MOON WILL RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS AT HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY THIS THURSDAY
EVENING.

WE HAVE A MORNING AND AN EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE ADVISORY PLKANNED
FOR DE.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT
HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ADDITIONALLY, THE DAY SHIFT MAY BE EXTENDING THE CF ADVISORY TO THE
TIDAL DE RIVER DOWNSTREAM FROM THE COMMODORE BARRY BRIDGE AND THE
EXTREME UPPER PART OF DE BAY (REEDY POINT LINK) FOR THE LATE THURSDAY
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG/NIERENBERG 230A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 230A
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 230A
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES 230A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...230A





000
FXUS61 KPHI 050418
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1218 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS EAST OF CAPE
COD LATE TODAY WHILE ANOTHER LOW LAGS BEHIND EAST OF THE VIRGINIA
CAPES. THAT SECOND LOW WILL PROCEED NORTHWARD TOWARD NEW JERSEY
FRIDAY...THEN EDGE EAST OUT TO SEA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WELCOMED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE A RAINFREE DAY. TEMPS NEARLY STEADY THROUGH SUNRISE
THURSDAY THEN ONLY SMALL RISES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH COLD
AIR UNDERRUNNING NORTHEAST WIND ADVECTION FROM THE RESERVOIR OF
COOLER WET BULBS OVER NEW ENGLAND. GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 25
MPH DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
APPEARS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN INSTABILITY BURST WILL BE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
NEAR DELAWARE. THUNDER POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY NEAR DELAWARE.
SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WHERE THEY DO OCCUR THOUGH PWAT ONLY
INCREASES TO NEAR 1 INCH. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: DUAL LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE THE GRAY
AND DREARY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE FIRST
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST OFF
CAPE COD WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN THE TRAILING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW
MODELING IS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF COULD REACH HALF AN
INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE DAYS
WITH HIGHS THAN WHAT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AND WARMER AT
NIGHT,HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE
DRIER THAN INDICATED IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. HOWEVER, AN
EQUAL POSSIBILITY IS PRESENT THAT THE SECOND LOW WILL LINGER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES WARMER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY THAN WHAT VARIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES INDICATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE ULTIMATE KICKER FOR THE STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR YET ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOME
CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY DAYS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WARM FRONT DIVIDING A COOLER
MORE MARINE AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THIS WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE FRONT MAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80`S BY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERED THIS CHANGE IN MODELING KEEPING SOME
CONTINUITY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR,
BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO ACCESS THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CIGS VARIABLE BETWEEN 600 AND 1600 FT WITH
POCKETS OF 4MI DRIZZLE. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND
3000 FT BY MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY TO VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD QUIT BY 14Z.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTY 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT I95 REGION EASTWARD AND
LESS THAN 18 KT VCNTY KRDG AND KABE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS TO START BUT CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE TO
MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE AFTER 06Z/6. NORTHEAST WIND...
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

MONDAY: VFR, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25 TO 30
KT AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET. WILL PROBABLY ADD AN SCA TO LOWER DE
BAY IN THE 330 AM THURSDAY ISSUANCE WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KT SHOULD
OCCUR.

OUTLOOK...

AN SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN
AT OR JUST OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL DECREASE FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS IS LIKELY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MAXIMUM WEDNESDAY EVENING TIDES WERE WITHIN 1 INCH OF THE MINOR
TIDAL INUNDATION FLOOD THRESHOLD WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 1.2
FEET.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE
TO BE AROUND +1.0 TO +1.3 FEET FOR THIS THURSDAY EVENING`S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE AND WILL PROBABLY NECESSITATE ANOTHER ADVISORY
ISSUANCE AT 330 AM. THOSE VALUES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY`S NEW MOON SHOULD RESULT
IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS
THIS EVENING.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE FRIDAY
NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/DRAG 1217A
NEAR TERM...DRAG/IOVINO/NIERENBERG 1217A
SHORT TERM...IOVINO/DRAG 1217A
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/IOVINO/NIERENBERG 1217A
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/IOVINO 1217A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1217A





000
FXUS61 KPHI 050418
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1218 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL PASS EAST OF CAPE
COD LATE TODAY WHILE ANOTHER LOW LAGS BEHIND EAST OF THE VIRGINIA
CAPES. THAT SECOND LOW WILL PROCEED NORTHWARD TOWARD NEW JERSEY
FRIDAY...THEN EDGE EAST OUT TO SEA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WELCOMED HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDY THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS OF DRIZZLE EARLY THIS MORNING
OTHERWISE A RAINFREE DAY. TEMPS NEARLY STEADY THROUGH SUNRISE
THURSDAY THEN ONLY SMALL RISES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY WITH COLD
AIR UNDERRUNNING NORTHEAST WIND ADVECTION FROM THE RESERVOIR OF
COOLER WET BULBS OVER NEW ENGLAND. GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND 20 TO 25
MPH DURING MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
APPEARS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN INSTABILITY BURST WILL BE
DEVELOPING NORTHWESTWARD AS A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES
NEAR DELAWARE. THUNDER POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY NEAR DELAWARE.
SHOWERS MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WHERE THEY DO OCCUR THOUGH PWAT ONLY
INCREASES TO NEAR 1 INCH. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS GENERALLY UNDER
20 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: DUAL LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE THE GRAY
AND DREARY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE FIRST
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST OFF
CAPE COD WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN THE TRAILING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW
MODELING IS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF COULD REACH HALF AN
INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE DAYS
WITH HIGHS THAN WHAT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AND WARMER AT
NIGHT,HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE
DRIER THAN INDICATED IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. HOWEVER, AN
EQUAL POSSIBILITY IS PRESENT THAT THE SECOND LOW WILL LINGER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES WARMER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY THAN WHAT VARIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES INDICATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE ULTIMATE KICKER FOR THE STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR YET ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOME
CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY DAYS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WARM FRONT DIVIDING A COOLER
MORE MARINE AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THIS WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE FRONT MAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80`S BY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERED THIS CHANGE IN MODELING KEEPING SOME
CONTINUITY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR,
BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO ACCESS THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...CIGS VARIABLE BETWEEN 600 AND 1600 FT WITH
POCKETS OF 4MI DRIZZLE. NORTHEAST WIND...GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...CIGS GENERALLY IMPROVE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND
3000 FT BY MIDDAY AND POSSIBLY TO VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ANY LINGERING DRIZZLE EARLY IN THE DAY SHOULD QUIT BY 14Z.
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTY 20 TO POSSIBLY 25 KT I95 REGION EASTWARD AND
LESS THAN 18 KT VCNTY KRDG AND KABE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS TO START BUT CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE TO
MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE AFTER 06Z/6. NORTHEAST WIND...
GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

MONDAY: VFR, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25 TO 30
KT AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET. WILL PROBABLY ADD AN SCA TO LOWER DE
BAY IN THE 330 AM THURSDAY ISSUANCE WHERE GUSTS TO 25 KT SHOULD
OCCUR.

OUTLOOK...

AN SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN
AT OR JUST OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL DECREASE FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS IS LIKELY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MAXIMUM WEDNESDAY EVENING TIDES WERE WITHIN 1 INCH OF THE MINOR
TIDAL INUNDATION FLOOD THRESHOLD WITH SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 1.2
FEET.

THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE
TO BE AROUND +1.0 TO +1.3 FEET FOR THIS THURSDAY EVENING`S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE AND WILL PROBABLY NECESSITATE ANOTHER ADVISORY
ISSUANCE AT 330 AM. THOSE VALUES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY`S NEW MOON SHOULD RESULT
IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS
THIS EVENING.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE FRIDAY
NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/DRAG 1217A
NEAR TERM...DRAG/IOVINO/NIERENBERG 1217A
SHORT TERM...IOVINO/DRAG 1217A
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/IOVINO/NIERENBERG 1217A
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/IOVINO 1217A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1217A





000
FXUS61 KPHI 050126
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT. DUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LINGER JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WELCOMED HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUE TO KEEP A DRY FCST INTO TONIGHT, EXCEPT PSBLY FOR SOME
DZ.

OTHERWISE, TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER LOOK GOOD.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN AT MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COASTAL LOW LATE TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW
IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A LINGERING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A
RESULT, WE WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: DUAL LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE
THE GRAY AND DREARY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE
FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST
OFF CAPE COD WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN THE TRAILING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW
MODELING IS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF COULD REACH HALF AN
INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE DAYS
WITH HIGHS THAN WHAT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AND WARMER AT
NIGHT,HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE
DRIER THAN INDICATED IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. HOWEVER, AN
EQUAL POSSIBILITY IS PRESENT THAT THE SECOND LOW WILL LINGER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES WARMER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY THAN WHAT VARIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES INDICATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE ULTIMATE KICKER FOR THE STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR YET ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOME
CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY DAYS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WARM FRONT DIVIDING A COOLER
MORE MARINE AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THIS WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE FRONT MAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80`S BY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERED THIS CHANGE IN MODELING KEEPING SOME
CONTINUITY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR,
BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO ACCESS THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS GENLY REMAIN IN THE 1000 TO 1500 FT RANGE. THERE ARE
SOME SUB 100 FT VALUES AS WELL. THE EXPECTED TREND IS DOWNWARD
INTO IFR AND EVEN LIFR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, DOWNWARD TREND MAY BE
SLOWER FCST. IF THERE IS ANY DRIZZLE THAT OCCURS, THERE COULD BE
BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS AS WELL. HOWEVER, SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
THE VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OR LESS IN SPOTS.

THE WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD
ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

MONDAY: VFR, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR WATERS OFF DELAWARE.

OUTLOOK...

AN SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN
AT OR JUST OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL DECREASE FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS IS LIKELY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIDAL SURGE RANGED FROM +0.7 TO +1.0 FOOT ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COAST DURING THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE AROUND +1.0
TO +1.3 FEET FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THOSE VALUES ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY`S NEW MOON
SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COASTS THIS EVENING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 050126
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT. DUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LINGER JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WELCOMED HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUE TO KEEP A DRY FCST INTO TONIGHT, EXCEPT PSBLY FOR SOME
DZ.

OTHERWISE, TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER LOOK GOOD.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN AT MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COASTAL LOW LATE TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW
IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A LINGERING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A
RESULT, WE WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: DUAL LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE
THE GRAY AND DREARY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE
FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST
OFF CAPE COD WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN THE TRAILING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW
MODELING IS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF COULD REACH HALF AN
INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE DAYS
WITH HIGHS THAN WHAT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AND WARMER AT
NIGHT,HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE
DRIER THAN INDICATED IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. HOWEVER, AN
EQUAL POSSIBILITY IS PRESENT THAT THE SECOND LOW WILL LINGER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES WARMER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY THAN WHAT VARIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES INDICATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE ULTIMATE KICKER FOR THE STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR YET ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOME
CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY DAYS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WARM FRONT DIVIDING A COOLER
MORE MARINE AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THIS WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE FRONT MAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80`S BY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERED THIS CHANGE IN MODELING KEEPING SOME
CONTINUITY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR,
BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO ACCESS THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS GENLY REMAIN IN THE 1000 TO 1500 FT RANGE. THERE ARE
SOME SUB 100 FT VALUES AS WELL. THE EXPECTED TREND IS DOWNWARD
INTO IFR AND EVEN LIFR OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, DOWNWARD TREND MAY BE
SLOWER FCST. IF THERE IS ANY DRIZZLE THAT OCCURS, THERE COULD BE
BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS AS WELL. HOWEVER, SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
THE VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OR LESS IN SPOTS.

THE WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD
ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

MONDAY: VFR, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR WATERS OFF DELAWARE.

OUTLOOK...

AN SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN
AT OR JUST OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL DECREASE FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS IS LIKELY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIDAL SURGE RANGED FROM +0.7 TO +1.0 FOOT ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COAST DURING THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE AROUND +1.0
TO +1.3 FEET FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THOSE VALUES ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY`S NEW MOON
SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COASTS THIS EVENING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 042227
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
627 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT. DUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LINGER JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WELCOMED HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
RAIN HAS ENDED ACRS THE AREA, WITH THE PRECIP MOVG OFFSHORE.
LATEST GUID KEEPS THE AREA GENLY RAIN FREE FOR MOST OF THE EVE
INTO TONIGHT, EXCEPT PSBLY FOR SOME DZ. THEREFORE, WILL LOWER POPS
CONSIDERABLY WITH THIS UPDATE. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AND LOWERED AFTER THAT.

OTHERWISE, TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER LOOK GOOD.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN AT MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COASTAL LOW LATE TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW
IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A LINGERING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A
RESULT, WE WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: DUAL LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE
THE GRAY AND DREARY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE
FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST
OFF CAPE COD WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN THE TRAILING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW
MODELING IS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF COULD REACH HALF AN
INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE DAYS
WITH HIGHS THAN WHAT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AND WARMER AT
NIGHT,HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE
DRIER THAN INDICATED IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. HOWEVER, AN
EQUAL POSSIBILITY IS PRESENT THAT THE SECOND LOW WILL LINGER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES WARMER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY THAN WHAT VARIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES INDICATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE ULTIMATE KICKER FOR THE STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR YET ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOME
CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY DAYS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WARM FRONT DIVIDING A COOLER
MORE MARINE AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THIS WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE FRONT MAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80`S BY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERED THIS CHANGE IN MODELING KEEPING SOME
CONTINUITY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR,
BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO ACCESS THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 1000 TO 1500 FOOT RANGE AT OUR
TAF SITES THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 400 TO 800 FOOT RANGE FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE CLOUD BASES TO
RISE BACK AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FEET FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 5 MILES. HOWEVER,
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OR LESS IN
SPOTS.

THE WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD
ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

MONDAY: VFR, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR WATERS OFF DELAWARE.

OUTLOOK...

AN SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN
AT OR JUST OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL DECREASE FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS IS LIKELY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIDAL SURGE RANGED FROM +0.7 TO +1.0 FOOT ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COAST DURING THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE AROUND +1.0
TO +1.3 FEET FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THOSE VALUES ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY`S NEW MOON
SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COASTS THIS EVENING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 041944
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT. DUEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LINGER JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE WEEKEND.
BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WELCOMED HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IT HELPED TO DEVELOP THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT PASSED ACROSS OUR COASTAL PLAIN. THE
AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
600 PM.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN AT MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COASTAL LOW LATE TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW
IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A LINGERING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A
RESULT, WE WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: DUAL LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE
THE GRAY AND DREARY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE
FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST
OFF CAPE COD WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN THE TRAILING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW
MODELING IS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF COULD REACH HALF AN
INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCESSIVE CLOUDCOVER IN PLACE WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE DAYS
WITH HIGHS THAN WHAT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AND WARMER AT
NIGHT,HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE
DRIER THAN INDICATED IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. HOWEVER, AN
EQUAL POSSIBILITY IS PRESENT THAT THE SECOND LOW WILL LINGER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES WARMER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY THAN WHAT VARIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES INDICATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE ULTIMATE KICKER FOR THE STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR YET ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOME
CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY DAYS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WARM FRONT DIVIDING A COOLER
MORE MARINE AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THIS WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE FRONT MAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80`S BY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERED THIS CHANGE IN MODELING KEEPING SOME
CONTINUITY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR,
BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO ACCESS THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AT MID AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 1000 TO 1500 FOOT RANGE AT OUR
TAF SITES THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 400 TO 800 FOOT RANGE FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE CLOUD BASES TO
RISE BACK AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FEET FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 5 MILES. HOWEVER,
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OR LESS IN
SPOTS.

THE WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD
ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

MONDAY: VFR, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR WATERS OFF DELAWARE.

OUTLOOK...

AN SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN
AT OR JUST OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL DECREASE FOR
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A PERIOD OF EASTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS IS LIKELY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE TIDAL SURGE RANGED FROM +0.7 TO +1.0 FOOT ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COAST DURING THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE AROUND +1.0
TO +1.3 FEET FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THOSE VALUES ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY`S NEW MOON
SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COASTS THIS EVENING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/IOVINO
MARINE...GAINES/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 041939
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT. DUEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LINGER JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE WEEKEND.
BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WELCOMED HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IT HELPED TO DEVELOP THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT PASSED ACROSS OUR COASTAL PLAIN. THE
AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
600 PM.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN AT MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COASTAL LOW LATE TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW
IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A LINGERING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A
RESULT, WE WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: DUAL LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE
THE GRAY AND DREARY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE
FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST
OFF CAPE COD WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN THE TRAILING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW
MODELING IS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF COULD REACH HALF AN
INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCESSIVE CLOUDCOVER IN PLACE WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE DAYS
WITH HIGHS THAN WHAT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AND WARMER AT
NIGHT,HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE
DRIER THAN INDICATED IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. HOWEVER, AN
EQUAL POSSIBILITY IS PRESENT THAT THE SECOND LOW WILL LINGER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES WARMER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY THAN WHAT VARIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES INDICATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE ULTIMATE KICKER FOR THE STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR YET ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOME
CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY DAYS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WARM FRONT DIVIDING A COOLER
MORE MARINE AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THIS WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE FRONT MAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80`S BY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERED THIS CHANGE IN MODELING KEEPING SOME
CONTINUITY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR,
BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO ACCESS THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AT MID AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 1000 TO 1500 FOOT RANGE AT OUR
TAF SITES THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 400 TO 800 FOOT RANGE FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE CLOUD BASES TO
RISE BACK AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FEET FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 5 MILES. HOWEVER,
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OR LESS IN
SPOTS.

THE WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD
ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

MONDAY: VFR, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR WATERS OFF DELAWARE.

OUTLOOK...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR WATERS OFF DELAWARE.

WIND CONDITIONS ON DELAWARE BAY SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION. HOWEVER, THEY WILL BE QUITE CLOSE ON LOWER
DELAWARE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT AREA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

THE TIDAL SURGE RANGED FROM +0.7 TO +1.0 FOOT ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COAST DURING THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE AROUND +1.0
TO +1.3 FEET FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THOSE VALUES ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY`S NEW MOON
SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COASTS THIS EVENING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/IOVINO
MARINE...GAINES/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GAINES/IOVINO





000
FXUS61 KPHI 041939
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE TONIGHT. DUEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LINGER JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE WEEKEND.
BY SUNDAY, A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WELCOMED HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD OVER OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. IT HELPED TO DEVELOP THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THAT PASSED ACROSS OUR COASTAL PLAIN. THE
AREA OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
600 PM.

LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN AT MID AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COASTAL LOW LATE TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST FLOW
IN OUR REGION. AS A RESULT, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DRIZZLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

A PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
WATERS OFF NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, A LINGERING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A
RESULT, WE WILL EXPERIENCE ANOTHER DAY OF NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALONG
WITH LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: DUAL LOW PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE
THE GRAY AND DREARY PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IN THIS TIMEFRAME. THE
FIRST AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BE DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST
OFF CAPE COD WITH THE SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CAROLINAS.
THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PROVIDE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES CURRENTLY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY WHEN THE TRAILING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST. RIGHT NOW
MODELING IS FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AND STEADIEST SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. QPF COULD REACH HALF AN
INCH BY FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THE
EXCESSIVE CLOUDCOVER IN PLACE WENT A LITTLE COOLER IN THE DAYS
WITH HIGHS THAN WHAT MET/MAV GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AND WARMER AT
NIGHT,HIGHS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 50`S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

THERE IS SOME OPTIMISM THAT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE
DRIER THAN INDICATED IN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE PACKAGES. HOWEVER, AN
EQUAL POSSIBILITY IS PRESENT THAT THE SECOND LOW WILL LINGER
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES WARMER AT NIGHT AND COOLER IN THE DAY THAN WHAT VARIOUS
GUIDANCE PACKAGES INDICATE. TEMPERATURES WILL START A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE THE ULTIMATE KICKER FOR THE STUBBORN LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR YET ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH SOME
CLEARING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
ARRIVES.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW DRY DAYS AND A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY. THE
CHALLENGE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WARM FRONT DIVIDING A COOLER
MORE MARINE AIRMASS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SENDING MORE SUMMERLIKE
TEMPERATURES INTO OUR REGION. RIGHT NOW THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THIS WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THE FRONT MAKES IT NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS WOULD
POTENTIALLY RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80`S BY WEDNESDAY.
FOR NOW, HAVE TEMPERED THIS CHANGE IN MODELING KEEPING SOME
CONTINUITY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL
MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND OVER 30 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR,
BUT IT`S TO EARLY TO ACCESS THE DEGREE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AT MID AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 1000 TO 1500 FOOT RANGE AT OUR
TAF SITES THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 400 TO 800 FOOT RANGE FOR TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CAUSE THE CLOUD BASES TO
RISE BACK AROUND 1000 TO 1500 FEET FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE 5 MILES. HOWEVER,
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE FROM TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO 5 MILES OR LESS IN
SPOTS.

THE WIND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KNOTS.
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD
ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: FREQUENT MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

MONDAY: VFR, WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR WATERS OFF DELAWARE.

OUTLOOK...

LOW PRESSURE ALONG AND OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WILL MAINTAIN A
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE OUR WATERS OFF DELAWARE.

WIND CONDITIONS ON DELAWARE BAY SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERION. HOWEVER, THEY WILL BE QUITE CLOSE ON LOWER
DELAWARE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT AREA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

THE TIDAL SURGE RANGED FROM +0.7 TO +1.0 FOOT ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COAST DURING THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THE PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TIDAL SURGE TO BE AROUND +1.0
TO +1.3 FEET FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THOSE VALUES ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH FRIDAY`S NEW MOON
SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE COASTS THIS EVENING. THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT.

MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY TO EXTEND INTO THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/IOVINO
MARINE...GAINES/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...GAINES/IOVINO





000
FXUS61 KPHI 041630
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1230 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH FOG IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER OUR
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE FEATURE HAS BEEN ENHANCING THE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF
DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND THROUGH
OUR COASTAL COUNTIES UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE,
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL IMPACT OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES BUT A
CONTD MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF
MEASURABLE DRIZZLE AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS.

50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM GUIDANCE. WE SEE THE SPC WRF DRIES US
OUT CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT SO POPS ARE GENERALLY 60 PCT N AND 30-40
PCT SOUTH. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE MAY BE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

NE WIND GUSTY NEAR 15 MPH... EXPECT 20-25 MPH MONMOUTH COUNTY
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN OMEGA BLOCK, THEN THIS
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN SOME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEEKS AGO THERE
WAS AN OMEGA BLOCK IN PLACE, HOWEVER AT THAT TIME WE WERE UNDER
THE RIDGE. THIS GO AROUND WE ARE UNDER THE TROUGH PART OF THE
BLOCK, KEEPING OUR WEATHER COOLER AND UNSETTLED. THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE UNSETTLED WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE
WEEKEND, THEN A MORE NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WE USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY. SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TRACKING NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGE
TROUGH WILL TEAM UP WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A MARINE LAYER AND
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER COULD ALSO START
WITH SOME DRIZZLE. THE ENTIRE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST FRIDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW
ITSELF MOVING OVER OUR CWA DURING FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NORTHWARD ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO
NOT DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY. AS THIS OCCURS, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO NEAR -24C ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD PROMOTE
SOME INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION, HOWEVER
CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY TEMPER THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE, AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FRIDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THEN THIS PIVOTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE IS STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH ALSO
DRIVES A BAND OF STRONGER 700-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
OVERALL, THERE LOOKS LIKE DECENT LIFT ON THE NOSE OF THE EASTERLY
JET TO PROMOTE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN THAT PIVOTS INLAND DURING
FRIDAY. WE MAY NOT SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, BUT IF THERE ARE
THEN ANY LOW- TOPPED CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE
VERY COLD 500 MB TEMPERATURES. AS OF NOW HOWEVER, ANY INSTABILITY
LOOKS MEAGER. THE SYSTEM THEM MEANDERS OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WHILE THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER COVERAGE SOME
SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL SLOWING TREND
IN THE GUIDANCE WHEN COMPARING THE MANY MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THIS
TENDS TO HAPPEN WITH BLOCKING PATTERNS AS IT TAKES LONGER FOR THE
CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF
DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES INCLUDING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN. WE THEREFORE
LEANED CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE BUT ALSO INCORPORATING SOME
CONTINUITY. THIS MEANS THAT SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE STILL UNSETTLED
WITH SOME SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND. THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON THE SHORT WAVE FORCING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW, HOWEVER PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OPEN UP AND START SHIFTING
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH
SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA MOSTLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME
SHOWERS. THE AIR ALOFT MODIFIES SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THEREFORE MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WE TRANSITION OUT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME
GUIDANCE HOWEVER HAS A SHORT WAVE AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH TIME, HOWEVER ENERGY IN THE PLAINS WILL SEND A DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA TUESDAY. WE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY ATTM WITH MUCH WARMER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...GENERALLY HIGH END IFR/LOW END MVFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5
MI IN SHOWERS. TIMING OF MOST OF THE RAIN THRU MID AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDER AROUND KACY. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 6 TO 12
KNOTS.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS
DIMINISHING OR ENDING-EXITING NEWD EARLY/PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG IN THE
WAKE OF THE NEWD SHOWER DEPARTURE. POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS. NE WIND G
15-20 KT POSSIBLE KPHL- KTTN- KACY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS PERSIST WITH AN ONSHORE
FLOW AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. TIMES OF SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AS WELL WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE /LESS AT
NIGHT/ WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TO START
SATURDAY, THEN IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WITH WIND NNJ AND SCA SNJ.

DID NOT ATTM ADD SCA FOR DE COAST SINCE 44009 ON THE OUTER EDGE
OF 455 IS MARGINALLY 5 FT. HOWEVER, AM NOW ANTICIPATING WE`LL NEED
AN SCA IN THE DE ATLC WATERS FOR LATER TONIGHT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR
A TIME THURSDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING FRIDAY WITH A
POSSIBLE 25-30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY SURGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF AN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD FRIDAY. THE SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 4-6 FEET MOSTLY FOR THE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS, AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AGAIN, AND SEAS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEREFORE THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING WITH
THE WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT LATE SATURDAY THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER IT APPEARS
THAT SPEEDS ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SEAS SHOULD ALSO BE
DROPPING BELOW 5 FEET WITH SOME HELP ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE FLOW
INCREASING FROM OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CF ADVISORY ISSUED. GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS OF INCREASED POSITIVE
DEPARTURES COMBINED WITH INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL EVENING TIDES,
LOWERING PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING ONSHORE WIND FAVORED AN
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. IT WILL BE MARGINAL...PROBABLY PLUS OR MINUS .2
FT FROM THRESHOLD.

THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE RAN ABOUT 0.7 TO 1.0 ABV NORMAL. THAT
UPWARD DEPARTURE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL CYCLES.

THE LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH A DAILY
INCREASE IN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MINOR EVENING COASTAL FLOODING.

ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD/SHOULD BE SOME MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING,
THURSDAY EVENING, AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR NOW, ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE NJ/DE COASTS AND
DELAWARE BAY FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD
FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ452-453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KPHI 041354
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT MID
MORNING WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT ADVECTS TO THE NORTH. IT
SHOULD IMPACT THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE
BALANCE OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE OVERALL TREND WELL.

OTHERWISE, LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH FOG
IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN
THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES BUT A
CONTD MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF
MEASURABLE DRIZZLE AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS.

50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM GUIDANCE. WE SEE THE SPC WRF DRIES US
OUT CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT SO POPS ARE GENERALLY 60 PCT N AND 30-40
PCT SOUTH. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE MAY BE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

NE WIND GUSTY NEAR 15 MPH... EXPECT 20-25 MPH MONMOUTH COUNTY
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN OMEGA BLOCK, THEN THIS
PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN SOME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEEKS AGO THERE
WAS AN OMEGA BLOCK IN PLACE, HOWEVER AT THAT TIME WE WERE UNDER
THE RIDGE. THIS GO AROUND WE ARE UNDER THE TROUGH PART OF THE
BLOCK, KEEPING OUR WEATHER COOLER AND UNSETTLED. THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL THEREFORE BE UNSETTLED WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE
WEEKEND, THEN A MORE NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WE USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY. SOME SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TRACKING NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGE
TROUGH WILL TEAM UP WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A MARINE LAYER AND
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS. THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER COULD ALSO START
WITH SOME DRIZZLE. THE ENTIRE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST FRIDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW
ITSELF MOVING OVER OUR CWA DURING FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NORTHWARD ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO
NOT DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY. AS THIS OCCURS, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO NEAR -24C ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD PROMOTE
SOME INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION, HOWEVER
CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY TEMPER THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE, AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FRIDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THEN THIS PIVOTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE IS STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH ALSO
DRIVES A BAND OF STRONGER 700-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING.
OVERALL, THERE LOOKS LIKE DECENT LIFT ON THE NOSE OF THE EASTERLY
JET TO PROMOTE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN THAT PIVOTS INLAND DURING
FRIDAY. WE MAY NOT SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, BUT IF THERE ARE
THEN ANY LOW- TOPPED CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE
VERY COLD 500 MB TEMPERATURES. AS OF NOW HOWEVER, ANY INSTABILITY
LOOKS MEAGER. THE SYSTEM THEM MEANDERS OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WHILE THERE SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER COVERAGE SOME
SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL SLOWING TREND
IN THE GUIDANCE WHEN COMPARING THE MANY MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THIS
TENDS TO HAPPEN WITH BLOCKING PATTERNS AS IT TAKES LONGER FOR THE
CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF
DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES INCLUDING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN. WE THEREFORE
LEANED CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE BUT ALSO INCORPORATING SOME
CONTINUITY. THIS MEANS THAT SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE STILL UNSETTLED
WITH SOME SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND. THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON THE SHORT WAVE FORCING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW, HOWEVER PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OPEN UP AND START SHIFTING
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH
SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA MOSTLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME
SHOWERS. THE AIR ALOFT MODIFIES SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THEREFORE MODERATING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WE TRANSITION OUT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME
GUIDANCE HOWEVER HAS A SHORT WAVE AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
WITH TIME, HOWEVER ENERGY IN THE PLAINS WILL SEND A DEVELOPING
WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA TUESDAY. WE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY ATTM WITH MUCH WARMER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN PERIODS OF
SHOWERS. TIMING OF THE RAIN MAINLY LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE PER NAM/GFS INSTABILITY ALOFT,
MAINLY DELMARVA OR SE PA/S NJ. NE WIND WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT
VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS
DIMINISHING OR ENDING-EXITING NEWD EARLY/PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG IN THE
WAKE OF THE NEWD SHOWER DEPARTURE. POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS. NE WIND G
15-20 KT POSSIBLE KPHL- KTTN- KACY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS PERSIST WITH AN ONSHORE
FLOW AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. TIMES OF SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AS WELL WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE /LESS AT
NIGHT/ WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TO START
SATURDAY, THEN IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR. SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AS ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WITH WIND NNJ AND SCA SNJ.

DID NOT ATTM ADD SCA FOR DE COAST SINCE 44009 ON THE OUTER EDGE
OF 455 IS MARGINALLY 5 FT. HOWEVER, AM NOW ANTICIPATING WE`LL NEED
AN SCA IN THE DE ATLC WATERS FOR LATER TONIGHT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR
A TIME THURSDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING FRIDAY WITH A
POSSIBLE 25-30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY SURGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF AN
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD FRIDAY. THE SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 4-6 FEET MOSTLY FOR THE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS, AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AGAIN, AND SEAS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEREFORE THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING WITH
THE WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT LATE SATURDAY THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER IT APPEARS
THAT SPEEDS ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SEAS SHOULD ALSO BE
DROPPING BELOW 5 FEET WITH SOME HELP ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE FLOW
INCREASING FROM OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CF ADVISORY ISSUED. GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS OF INCREASED POSITIVE
DEPARTURES COMBINED WITH INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL EVENING TIDES,
LOWERING PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING ONSHORE WIND FAVORED AN
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. IT WILL BE MARGINAL...PROBABLY PLUS OR MINUS .2
FT FROM THRESHOLD.

THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY NEAR LEWES WAS .3FT HIGHER
THAN LAST EVENINGS. THAT UPWARD DEPARTURE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THE NEXT SEVERAL CYCLES.

THE LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH A DAILY
INCREASE IN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MINOR EVENING COASTAL FLOODING.

ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD/SHOULD BE SOME MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING,
THURSDAY EVENING, AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR NOW, ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE NJ/DE COASTS AND
DELAWARE BAY FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD
FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ452-453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KPHI 041059
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
659 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEN MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS AND DRIZZLE.

ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DELMARVA OR EVEN SE PA OR S NJ IN
RESPONSE TO A POCKET OF INSTABILITY ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A KI
POOL 30+ AND TT NEAR 52 AS WELL AS A WEAK 850MB TROUGH. QPF IS
THAT FROM WPC. SHOULD BE SMALL POCKETS OF EMBEDDED .25 TO .5
INCHES TODAY, SINCE PWAT INCREASES TO ABOUT 1 INCH.

ADDED "HEAVY" WORDING TO NE NJ IN THE 630 AM UPDATE PER INCREASED
QPF. DID NOT ADD THUNDER TO THE FCST IN THE 630 AM ISSUANCE.

NE WIND GUSTY 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

FOG...MAINLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...POCONOS/KITTATINNYS.

50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS...FAVORING THE COLDER SIDE AS WE
DRAW FROM THE COOLER WET BULB RESERVOIR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES BUT A CONTD
MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF MEASURABLE DRIZZLE
AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS.

50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM GUIDANCE. WE SEE THE SPC WRF DRIES US
OUT CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT SO POPS ARE GENERALLY 60 PCT N AND 30-40
PCT SOUTH. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE MAY BE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

NE WIND GUSTY NEAR 15 MPH... EXPECT 20-25 MPH MONMOUTH COUNTY COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN OMEGA BLOCK, THEN THIS PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN SOME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEEKS AGO THERE WAS AN OMEGA
BLOCK IN PLACE, HOWEVER AT THAT TIME WE WERE UNDER THE RIDGE.
THIS GO AROUND WE ARE UNDER THE TROUGH PART OF THE BLOCK, KEEPING
OUR WEATHER COOLER AND UNSETTLED. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
THEREFORE BE UNSETTLED WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE WEEKEND,
THEN A MORE NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED
IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRACKING NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGE TROUGH WILL TEAM UP
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A MARINE LAYER AND PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS.
THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER COULD ALSO START WITH SOME DRIZZLE. THE
ENTIRE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST TO BECOME CENTERED ALONG
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW ITSELF MOVING OVER OUR CWA
DURING FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST NORTHWARD ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO NOT DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY. AS
THIS OCCURS, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO NEAR
-24C ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD PROMOTE SOME INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS SOME
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION, HOWEVER CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY
TEMPER THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE, AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FRIDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THEN THIS PIVOTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE IS STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH ALSO
DRIVES A BAND OF STRONGER 700-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. OVERALL,
THERE LOOKS LIKE DECENT LIFT ON THE NOSE OF THE EASTERLY JET TO
PROMOTE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN THAT PIVOTS INLAND DURING FRIDAY. WE
MAY NOT SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, BUT IF THERE ARE THEN ANY LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE VERY COLD
500 MB TEMPERATURES. AS OF NOW HOWEVER, ANY INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER.
THE SYSTEM THEM MEANDERS OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WHILE THERE
SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER COVERAGE SOME SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL SLOWING TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE WHEN COMPARING THE MANY MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THIS
TENDS TO HAPPEN WITH BLOCKING PATTERNS AS IT TAKES LONGER FOR THE
CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF
DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES INCLUDING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN. WE THEREFORE
LEANED CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE BUT ALSO INCORPORATING SOME
CONTINUITY. THIS MEANS THAT SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE STILL UNSETTLED
WITH SOME SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND. THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON THE SHORT WAVE FORCING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW, HOWEVER PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OPEN UP AND START SHIFTING EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH SLIDES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR AREA MOSTLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. THE AIR
ALOFT MODIFIES SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEREFORE MODERATING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WE TRANSITION OUT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME GUIDANCE
HOWEVER HAS A SHORT WAVE AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH TIME, HOWEVER
ENERGY IN THE PLAINS WILL SEND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARD OUR AREA TUESDAY. WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY ATTM WITH MUCH
WARMER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


TODAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS/
PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. TIMING OF THE RAIN/DRIZZLE LESS THAN CERTAIN.
ISOLATED THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE PER NAM/GFS INSTABILITY ALOFT,
MAINLY DELMARVA OR SE PA/S NJ. NE WIND WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT
VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS
DIMINISHING OR ENDING-EXITING NEWD EARLY/PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG IN THE
WAKE OF THE NEWD SHOWER DEPARTURE. POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS. NE WIND G
15-20 KT POSSIBLE KPHL- KTTN- KACY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS PERSIST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. TIMES OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AS WELL WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING ON FRIDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE /LESS AT NIGHT/ WITH
THE HIGHER SPEEDS MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TO START SATURDAY,
THEN IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WITH WIND NNJ AND SCA SNJ.

DID NOT ATTM ADD SCA FOR DE COAST SINCE 44009 ON THE OUTER EDGE OF
455 IS MARGINALLY 5 FT. HOWEVER, AM NOW ANTICIPATING WE`LL NEED AN
SCA IN THE DE ATLC WATERS FOR LATER TONIGHT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A
TIME THURSDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE
25-30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY SURGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD FRIDAY. THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 4-6
FEET MOSTLY FOR THE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AGAIN, AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET
FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEREFORE THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT LATE SATURDAY THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SUNDAY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS ARE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SEAS SHOULD ALSO BE DROPPING BELOW 5 FEET
WITH SOME HELP ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE FLOW INCREASING FROM OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CF ADVISORY ISSUED. GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS OF INCREASED POSITIVE
DEPARTURES COMBINED WITH INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL EVENING TIDES,
LOWERING PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING ONSHORE WIND FAVORED AN
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. IT WILL BE MARGINAL...PROBABLY PLUS OR MINUS
.2 FT FROM THRESHOLD.

THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY NEAR LEWES WAS .3FT HIGHER
THAN LAST EVENINGS. THAT UPWARD DEPARTURE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THE NEXT SEVERAL CYCLES.

THE LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH A DAILY INCREASE
IN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRIDAY WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MINOR EVENING COASTAL FLOODING.

ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD/SHOULD BE SOME MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING, THURSDAY
EVENING, AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR NOW, ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE NJ/DE COASTS AND
DELAWARE BAY FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD
FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
SRF WORKS FINE IN OUR TEST THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR THIS PRODUCT
BEGINNING FRIDAY MAY 20 530 AM AND WE`LL HAVE A NEWS HEADLINE LINK
FOR IT.

HERE`S A SHORT USEFUL REVIEW OF RIP CURRENT SCIENCE PRODUCED BY A
PARTNERSHIP OF NWS AND OCEANS TODAY.

HTTP://OCEANTODAY.NOAA.GOV/RIPCURRENTSCIENCE/

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ452-453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 659
SHORT TERM...DRAG 659
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 659
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 659
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...658
RIP CURRENTS..659





000
FXUS61 KPHI 041059
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
659 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEN MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS AND DRIZZLE.

ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DELMARVA OR EVEN SE PA OR S NJ IN
RESPONSE TO A POCKET OF INSTABILITY ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A KI
POOL 30+ AND TT NEAR 52 AS WELL AS A WEAK 850MB TROUGH. QPF IS
THAT FROM WPC. SHOULD BE SMALL POCKETS OF EMBEDDED .25 TO .5
INCHES TODAY, SINCE PWAT INCREASES TO ABOUT 1 INCH.

ADDED "HEAVY" WORDING TO NE NJ IN THE 630 AM UPDATE PER INCREASED
QPF. DID NOT ADD THUNDER TO THE FCST IN THE 630 AM ISSUANCE.

NE WIND GUSTY 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

FOG...MAINLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...POCONOS/KITTATINNYS.

50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS...FAVORING THE COLDER SIDE AS WE
DRAW FROM THE COOLER WET BULB RESERVOIR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES BUT A CONTD
MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF MEASURABLE DRIZZLE
AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS.

50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM GUIDANCE. WE SEE THE SPC WRF DRIES US
OUT CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT SO POPS ARE GENERALLY 60 PCT N AND 30-40
PCT SOUTH. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE MAY BE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

NE WIND GUSTY NEAR 15 MPH... EXPECT 20-25 MPH MONMOUTH COUNTY COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN OMEGA BLOCK, THEN THIS PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN SOME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEEKS AGO THERE WAS AN OMEGA
BLOCK IN PLACE, HOWEVER AT THAT TIME WE WERE UNDER THE RIDGE.
THIS GO AROUND WE ARE UNDER THE TROUGH PART OF THE BLOCK, KEEPING
OUR WEATHER COOLER AND UNSETTLED. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
THEREFORE BE UNSETTLED WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE WEEKEND,
THEN A MORE NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED
IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRACKING NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGE TROUGH WILL TEAM UP
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A MARINE LAYER AND PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS.
THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER COULD ALSO START WITH SOME DRIZZLE. THE
ENTIRE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST TO BECOME CENTERED ALONG
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW ITSELF MOVING OVER OUR CWA
DURING FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST NORTHWARD ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO NOT DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY. AS
THIS OCCURS, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO NEAR
-24C ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD PROMOTE SOME INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS SOME
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION, HOWEVER CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY
TEMPER THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE, AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FRIDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THEN THIS PIVOTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE IS STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH ALSO
DRIVES A BAND OF STRONGER 700-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. OVERALL,
THERE LOOKS LIKE DECENT LIFT ON THE NOSE OF THE EASTERLY JET TO
PROMOTE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN THAT PIVOTS INLAND DURING FRIDAY. WE
MAY NOT SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, BUT IF THERE ARE THEN ANY LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE VERY COLD
500 MB TEMPERATURES. AS OF NOW HOWEVER, ANY INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER.
THE SYSTEM THEM MEANDERS OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WHILE THERE
SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER COVERAGE SOME SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL SLOWING TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE WHEN COMPARING THE MANY MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THIS
TENDS TO HAPPEN WITH BLOCKING PATTERNS AS IT TAKES LONGER FOR THE
CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF
DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES INCLUDING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN. WE THEREFORE
LEANED CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE BUT ALSO INCORPORATING SOME
CONTINUITY. THIS MEANS THAT SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE STILL UNSETTLED
WITH SOME SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND. THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON THE SHORT WAVE FORCING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW, HOWEVER PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OPEN UP AND START SHIFTING EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH SLIDES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR AREA MOSTLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. THE AIR
ALOFT MODIFIES SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEREFORE MODERATING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WE TRANSITION OUT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME GUIDANCE
HOWEVER HAS A SHORT WAVE AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH TIME, HOWEVER
ENERGY IN THE PLAINS WILL SEND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARD OUR AREA TUESDAY. WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY ATTM WITH MUCH
WARMER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


TODAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS/
PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. TIMING OF THE RAIN/DRIZZLE LESS THAN CERTAIN.
ISOLATED THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE PER NAM/GFS INSTABILITY ALOFT,
MAINLY DELMARVA OR SE PA/S NJ. NE WIND WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT
VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS
DIMINISHING OR ENDING-EXITING NEWD EARLY/PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG IN THE
WAKE OF THE NEWD SHOWER DEPARTURE. POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS. NE WIND G
15-20 KT POSSIBLE KPHL- KTTN- KACY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS PERSIST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. TIMES OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AS WELL WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING ON FRIDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE /LESS AT NIGHT/ WITH
THE HIGHER SPEEDS MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TO START SATURDAY,
THEN IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WITH WIND NNJ AND SCA SNJ.

DID NOT ATTM ADD SCA FOR DE COAST SINCE 44009 ON THE OUTER EDGE OF
455 IS MARGINALLY 5 FT. HOWEVER, AM NOW ANTICIPATING WE`LL NEED AN
SCA IN THE DE ATLC WATERS FOR LATER TONIGHT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A
TIME THURSDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE
25-30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY SURGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD FRIDAY. THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 4-6
FEET MOSTLY FOR THE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AGAIN, AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET
FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEREFORE THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT LATE SATURDAY THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SUNDAY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS ARE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SEAS SHOULD ALSO BE DROPPING BELOW 5 FEET
WITH SOME HELP ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE FLOW INCREASING FROM OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CF ADVISORY ISSUED. GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS OF INCREASED POSITIVE
DEPARTURES COMBINED WITH INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL EVENING TIDES,
LOWERING PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING ONSHORE WIND FAVORED AN
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. IT WILL BE MARGINAL...PROBABLY PLUS OR MINUS
.2 FT FROM THRESHOLD.

THIS MORNINGS HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY NEAR LEWES WAS .3FT HIGHER
THAN LAST EVENINGS. THAT UPWARD DEPARTURE TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THE NEXT SEVERAL CYCLES.

THE LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH A DAILY INCREASE
IN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRIDAY WILL
RESULT IN PERIODS OF MINOR EVENING COASTAL FLOODING.

ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD/SHOULD BE SOME MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING, THURSDAY
EVENING, AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR NOW, ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE NJ/DE COASTS AND
DELAWARE BAY FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD
FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
SRF WORKS FINE IN OUR TEST THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR THIS PRODUCT
BEGINNING FRIDAY MAY 20 530 AM AND WE`LL HAVE A NEWS HEADLINE LINK
FOR IT.

HERE`S A SHORT USEFUL REVIEW OF RIP CURRENT SCIENCE PRODUCED BY A
PARTNERSHIP OF NWS AND OCEANS TODAY.

HTTP://OCEANTODAY.NOAA.GOV/RIPCURRENTSCIENCE/

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ452-453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 659
SHORT TERM...DRAG 659
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 659
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 659
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...658
RIP CURRENTS..659





000
FXUS61 KPHI 040905
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
505 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY TODAY...SHOWERS AS PER 455 AM RADAR...MOSTLY ALONG AND NW
OF I95 WITH A LOBE SWD ALONG THE S NJ AND DE COASTS.

AFTER SUNRISE...PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS AND DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY
I-95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD. (THERE MAY BE A SEVERAL HOUR BREAK IN THE
SHOWERS THIS MORNING BUT NOT MAKING A MOVE ON THAT TIL 6 AM AT THE
EARLIEST...ALREADY MORE SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEWD FROM E VA INTO THE
DELMARVA).

ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DELMARVA OR EVEN SE PA OR S NJ IN
RESPONSE TO A POCKET OF INSTABILITY ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A KI
POOL 30+ AND TT NEAR 52 AS WELL AS A WEAK 850MB TROUGH. QPF IS
THAT FROM WPC. SHOULD BE SMALL POCKETS OF EMBEDDED .25 TO .5
INCHES TODAY, SINCE PWAT INCREASES TO ABOUT 1 INCH.

MAY ADD "HEAVY" WORDING TO NNJ IN THE 630 AM UPDATE? MAY ALSO ADD
THUNDER TO THE FCST IN THE 630 AM ISSUANCE.. S NJ AND DE AS WELL
AS COASTS. STILL UNCERTAIN ON WHETHER TO ADD.

NE WIND GUSTY 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT.

FOG...MAINLY IN THE HIGH TERRAIN...POCONOS/KITTATINNYS.

50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS...FAVORING THE COLDER SIDE AS WE
DRAW FROM THE COOLER WET BULB RESERVOIR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES BUT A CONTD
MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF MEASURABLE DRIZZLE
AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS.

50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM GUIDANCE. WE SEE THE SPC WRF DRIES US
OUT CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT SO POPS ARE GENERALLY 60 PCT N AND 30-40
PCT SOUTH. BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE MAY BE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT.

NE WIND GUSTY NEAR 15 MPH... EXPECT 20-25 MPH MONMOUTH COUNTY COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN OMEGA BLOCK, THEN THIS PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN SOME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEEKS AGO THERE WAS AN OMEGA
BLOCK IN PLACE, HOWEVER AT THAT TIME WE WERE UNDER THE RIDGE.
THIS GO AROUND WE ARE UNDER THE TROUGH PART OF THE BLOCK, KEEPING
OUR WEATHER COOLER AND UNSETTLED. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
THEREFORE BE UNSETTLED WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE WEEKEND,
THEN A MORE NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED
IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRACKING NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGE TROUGH WILL TEAM UP
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A MARINE LAYER AND PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS.
THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER COULD ALSO START WITH SOME DRIZZLE. THE
ENTIRE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST TO BECOME CENTERED ALONG
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW ITSELF MOVING OVER OUR CWA
DURING FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST NORTHWARD ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO NOT DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY. AS
THIS OCCURS, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO NEAR
-24C ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD PROMOTE SOME INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS SOME
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION, HOWEVER CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY
TEMPER THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE, AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FRIDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THEN THIS PIVOTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE IS STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH ALSO
DRIVES A BAND OF STRONGER 700-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. OVERALL,
THERE LOOKS LIKE DECENT LIFT ON THE NOSE OF THE EASTERLY JET TO
PROMOTE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN THAT PIVOTS INLAND DURING FRIDAY. WE
MAY NOT SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, BUT IF THERE ARE THEN ANY LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE VERY COLD
500 MB TEMPERATURES. AS OF NOW HOWEVER, ANY INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER.
THE SYSTEM THEM MEANDERS OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WHILE THERE
SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER COVERAGE SOME SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL SLOWING TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE WHEN COMPARING THE MANY MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THIS
TENDS TO HAPPEN WITH BLOCKING PATTERNS AS IT TAKES LONGER FOR THE
CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF
DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES INCLUDING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN. WE THEREFORE
LEANED CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE BUT ALSO INCORPORATING SOME
CONTINUITY. THIS MEANS THAT SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE STILL UNSETTLED
WITH SOME SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND. THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON THE SHORT WAVE FORCING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW, HOWEVER PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OPEN UP AND START SHIFTING EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH SLIDES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR AREA MOSTLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. THE AIR
ALOFT MODIFIES SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEREFORE MODERATING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WE TRANSITION OUT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME GUIDANCE
HOWEVER HAS A SHORT WAVE AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH TIME, HOWEVER
ENERGY IN THE PLAINS WILL SEND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARD OUR AREA TUESDAY. WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY ATTM WITH MUCH
WARMER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY TODAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG. SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY KRDG/KABE/KILG/KPNE/KTTN WHICH WILL
RESULT IN PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NE WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. TIMING OF THE RAIN/DRIZZLE LESS THAN
CERTAIN.  ISOLATED THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE PER NAM/GFS INSTABILITY
ALOFT, MAINLY DELMARVA OR SE PA/S NJ. NE WIND WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20
KT VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS
DIMINISHING OR ENDING-EXITING NEWD EARLY/PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG IN THE
WAKE OF THE NEWD SHOWER DEPARTURE. POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS. NE WIND G
15-20 KT POSSIBLE KPHL- KTTN- KACY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS PERSIST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. TIMES OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AS WELL WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING ON FRIDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE /LESS AT NIGHT/ WITH
THE HIGHER SPEEDS MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TO START SATURDAY,
THEN IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WITH WIND NNJ AND SCA SNJ. MAY NEED TO ADD SCA FOR THE DE
COAST PER RECENT UPTICK IN SEAS TO NEAR 5 FT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A
TIME THURSDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE
25-30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY SURGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD FRIDAY. THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 4-6
FEET MOSTLY FOR THE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AGAIN, AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET
FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEREFORE THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT LATE SATURDAY THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SUNDAY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS ARE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SEAS SHOULD ALSO BE DROPPING BELOW 5 FEET
WITH SOME HELP ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE FLOW INCREASING FROM OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CF ADVISORY ISSUED. GUIDANCE SUGGESTIONS OF INCREASED POSITIVE
DEPARTURES COMBINED WITH INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL EVENING TIDES,
LOWERING PRESSURE AND AN INCREASING ONSHORE WIND FAVORED AN
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. IT WILL BE MARGINAL...PROBABLY PLUS OR MINUS
.2 FT FROM THRESHOLD.

THE LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH COMBINED WITH A DAILY
INCREASE IN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRIDAY
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MINOR EVENING COASTAL FLOODING.

ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD/SHOULD BE SOME MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING, THURSDAY
EVENING, AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR NOW, ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE NJ/DE COASTS AND
DELAWARE BAY FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD
FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE WILL BE TESTING THE SRF THIS MORNING FOR AN HOUR AROUND 630A
TO ENSURE CORRECT POSTING OF THE SRF PRODUCT FOR ITS MAY 20 530 AM
START UP.

HERE`S A SHORT USEFUL REVIEW OF RIP CURRENT SCIENCE PRODUCED BY A
PARTNERSHIP OF NWS AND OCEANS TODAY.

HTTP://OCEANTODAY.NOAA.GOV/RIPCURRENTSCIENCE/

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ452-453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG  505
SHORT TERM...DRAG 505
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 505
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 505
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...505





000
FXUS61 KPHI 040740
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSOLIDATE OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 AM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE 1045 PM UPDATE FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEWD INTO E MD AND E PA ATTM. TEMPS NEARLY
STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK. LIGHT NE WIND.

AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS AND DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY
I-95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DELMARVA OR EVEN
SE PA OR S NJ IN RESPONSE TO A POCKET OF INSTABILITY ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH A KI POOL 30+ AND TT NEAR 52 AS WELL AS A WEAK 850MB TROUGH.
QPF IS THAT FROM WPC. SHOULD BE SMALL POCKETS OF EMBEDDED .25 TO .5
INCHES TODAY, SINCE PWAT INCREASES TO ABOUT 1 INCH. NE WIND GUSTY
15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN CYCLONIC FLOW
WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4
GFS/NAM MOS...FAVORING THE COLDER SIDE AS WE DRAW FROM THE COOLER
WET BULB RESERVOIR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES BUT A CONTD
MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF MEASURABLE DRIZZLE
AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS. 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM
GUIDANCE. WE SEE THE SPC WRF DRIES US OUT CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT SO
POPS ARE GENERALLY 60 PCT N AND 30-40 PCT SOUTH. NE WIND GUSTY
NEAR 15 MPH... EXPECT 20-25 MPH MONMOUTH COUNTY COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN OMEGA BLOCK, THEN THIS PATTERN
IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN SOME DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WEEKS AGO THERE WAS AN OMEGA
BLOCK IN PLACE, HOWEVER AT THAT TIME WE WERE UNDER THE RIDGE.
THIS GO AROUND WE ARE UNDER THE TROUGH PART OF THE BLOCK, KEEPING
OUR WEATHER COOLER AND UNSETTLED. THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL
THEREFORE BE UNSETTLED WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE WEEKEND,
THEN A MORE NOTABLE IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND APPROACH FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED
IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE OMEGA BLOCK CONTINUES WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE CLOSING OFF THE TROUGH AS IT TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY. SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TRACKING NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LARGE TROUGH WILL TEAM UP
WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ABOVE A MARINE LAYER AND PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS.
THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER COULD ALSO START WITH SOME DRIZZLE. THE
ENTIRE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST TO BECOME CENTERED ALONG
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY WITH THE CLOSED LOW ITSELF MOVING OVER OUR CWA
DURING FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST NORTHWARD ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO NOT DEEPEN CONSIDERABLY. AS
THIS OCCURS, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL TO NEAR
-24C ON FRIDAY. THIS WOULD PROMOTE SOME INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS SOME
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION, HOWEVER CLOUD COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS MAY
TEMPER THIS POTENTIAL.

OTHERWISE, AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS FRIDAY ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES THEN THIS PIVOTS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME GUIDANCE IS STRONGER WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH ALSO
DRIVES A BAND OF STRONGER 700-800 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING. OVERALL,
THERE LOOKS LIKE DECENT LIFT ON THE NOSE OF THE EASTERLY JET TO
PROMOTE AN AREA OF SHOWERS/RAIN THAT PIVOTS INLAND DURING FRIDAY. WE
MAY NOT SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS, BUT IF THERE ARE THEN ANY LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN THE VERY COLD
500 MB TEMPERATURES. AS OF NOW HOWEVER, ANY INSTABILITY LOOKS MEAGER.
THE SYSTEM THEM MEANDERS OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND WHILE THERE
SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN THE SHOWER COVERAGE SOME SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL SLOWING TREND IN
THE GUIDANCE WHEN COMPARING THE MANY MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THIS
TENDS TO HAPPEN WITH BLOCKING PATTERNS AS IT TAKES LONGER FOR THE
CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE
DIFFERENCES AT THE SURFACE ON SATURDAY WHICH LEADS TO PLENTY OF
DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES INCLUDING THE AMOUNT OF RAIN. WE THEREFORE
LEANED CLOSER TO THE WPC GUIDANCE BUT ALSO INCORPORATING SOME
CONTINUITY. THIS MEANS THAT SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE STILL UNSETTLED
WITH SOME SHOWERS STILL HANGING AROUND. THE AMOUNT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON THE SHORT WAVE FORCING AROUND THE CLOSED
LOW, HOWEVER PLENTY OF COLD AIR REMAINS ALOFT WHICH WILL HELP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD OPEN UP AND START SHIFTING EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPSTREAM ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A TROUGH SLIDES
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS DRIVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS
OUR AREA MOSTLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. THE AIR
ALOFT MODIFIES SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEREFORE MODERATING
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WE TRANSITION OUT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. SOME GUIDANCE
HOWEVER HAS A SHORT WAVE AMPLIFYING A TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TUESDAY AS A RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. IT APPEARS THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH TIME, HOWEVER
ENERGY IN THE PLAINS WILL SEND A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT TO OUR SOUTH
TOWARD OUR AREA TUESDAY. WE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY ATTM WITH MUCH
WARMER AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY TODAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG. SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY KRDG/KABE/KILG WHICH WILL RESULT
IN PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NE WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. ISOLATED THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE PER
NAM/GFS INSTABILITY ALOFT, MAINLY DELMARVA OR SE PA/S NJ. NE WIND
WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS
DIMINISHING OR ENDING EARLY/PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. POSSIBLE LIFR
CIGS. NE WIND G 15-20 KT POSSIBLE KPHL-KTTN-KACY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS PERSIST WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST. TIMES OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
AS WELL WITH THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY OCCURRING ON FRIDAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE /LESS AT NIGHT/ WITH
THE HIGHER SPEEDS MAINLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TO START SATURDAY,
THEN IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS
ONE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MAINLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY
THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST AT NIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUED. WILL BE UPGRADED TO INCLUDE WIND GUSTS
25-30KT IN THE 330 AM FORECAST FOR AT LEAST NNJ 450-451 LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WAVES NEAR 4 FT NOW WILL STEADILY BUILD SO THAT TONIGHT THEY
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD 5-6 FT, POSSIBLY 7 FT VCNTY 44091.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR A
TIME THURSDAY AS ONE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE
25-30 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY SURGE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET THAT LIFTS NORTHWARD FRIDAY. THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 4-6
FEET MOSTLY FOR THE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, AND THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 22Z THURSDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AGAIN, AND SEAS MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET
FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEREFORE THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO
BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
WINDS TURNING SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF IT LATE SATURDAY THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SUNDAY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT SPEEDS ARE BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SEAS SHOULD ALSO BE DROPPING BELOW 5 FEET
WITH SOME HELP ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE FLOW INCREASING FROM OFFSHORE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP THRU AT LEAST
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRI. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING, THURSDAY EVENING, AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY
EVENING. FOR NOW, ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE NJ/DE
COASTS AND DELAWARE BAY FOR THIS EVENINGS HIGH TIDE. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY
EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE WILL BE TESTING THE SRF THIS MORNING FOR AN HOUR AROUND 630A
TO ENSURE CORRECT POSTING OF THE SRF PRODUCT FOR ITS MAY 20 530 AM
START UP.

HERE`S A SHORT USEFUL REVIEW OF RIP CURRENT SCIENCE PRODUCED BY A
PARTNERSHIP OF NWS AND OCEANS TODAY.

HTTP://OCEANTODAY.NOAA.GOV/RIPCURRENTSCIENCE/

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ002>004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ452-453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 040627
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
227 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COAST, BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE 1045 PM UPDATE FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEWD INTO E MD AND E PA ATTM. TEMPS NEARLY
STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK. LIGHT NE WIND.

AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS AND DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY
I-95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DELMARVA OR EVEN
SE PA OR S NJ IN RESPONSE TO A POCKET OF INSTABILITY ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH A KI POOL 30+ AND TT NEAR 52 AS WELL AS A WEAK 850MB TROUGH.
QPF IS THAT FROM WPC. SHOULD BE SMALL POCKETS OF EMBEDDED .25 TO .5
INCHES TODAY, SINCE PWAT INCREASES TO ABOUT 1 INCH. NE WIND GUSTY
15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN CYCLONIC FLOW
WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4
GFS/NAM MOS...FAVORING THE COLDER SIDE AS WE DRAW FROM THE COOLER
WET BULB RESERVOIR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES BUT A CONTD
MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF MEASURABLE DRIZZLE
AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS. 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM
GUIDANCE. WE SEE THE SPC WRF DRIES US OUT CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT SO
POPS ARE GENERALLY 60 PCT N AND 30-40 PCT SOUTH. NE WIND GUSTY
NEAR 15 MPH... EXPECT 20-25 MPH MONMOUTH COUNTY COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID-LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY INCLUDE A MEAN
VORTEX NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED NORTHERN HUDSON`S BAY WITH AN
OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP A SPLIT FLOW OVER NOAM. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT WILL CARVE OUT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU, WHICH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH
AND GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A STOUT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON`S BAY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WILL BREAK DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK, AND EJECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER, AND A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE LEFT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET, MAINTAINING A WEAK OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE,
WHICH WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY
MOIST WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, FAVORING LIGHT AND SPOTTY PRECIP
MAINLY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS ENHANCED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW, WITH HEIGHTS OF
NEGATIVE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS, CLOSES OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI, AND GRADUALLY FILLS, AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE LEADS TO MODEST CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE VA CAPES THU NIGHT,
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR THE DE/NJ COAST FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW, PARTICULARLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT
DEVELOPS THU NIGHT, THEN HOW FAST IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT. THE NAM
IS FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH THU NIGHT, WITH A GREATER PRESSURE
GRADIENT NORTHWARD INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN LONGER DURATION OF
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. FORTUNATELY, THE CONFLUENT REGION OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOW, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE
WIND POTENTIAL, I.E., LACK OF A ROBUST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET. THE
ECMWF MAY BE LIFTING THE LOW TOO QUICKLY NORTHEAST SATURDAY, GIVEN
THE VERTICALLY STACKED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS AN OUTLIER.

OVERALL, A WET PERIOD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION, WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE ALIGNS WITH THE STRONGEST PVA. WITH THE LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET, AS WELL AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, THE HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THUS, EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO INCREASE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE,
WITH EARLY ESTIMATES UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES NORTHWEST OF I-95.
GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE RAINFALL, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE. WHILE WE HAVE NOT INSERTED
THUNDER AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA FRIDAY, WITH 500 HPA TEMPS APPROACHING -24C! MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MODELED TO APPROACH 7C/KM, WITH MODEST ELEVATED
CAPE. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF THUNDER. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, WINDS
COULD GUST UP TO AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS TEND TO AMPLIFY THIS SHORT-
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF PRECIP, AS WELL AS GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO BE UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME, SO THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FAIR WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH
TEMPERATURES AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY TODAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG. SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY KRDG/KABE/KILG WHICH WILL RESULT
IN PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NE WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. ISOLATED THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE PER
NAM/GFS INSTABILITY ALOFT, MAINLY DELMARVA OR SE PA/S NJ. NE WIND
WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS
DIMINISHING OR ENDING EARLY/PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. POSSIBLE LIFR
CIGS. NE WIND G 15-20 KT POSSIBLE KPHL-KTTN-KACY.

OUTLOOK...

OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY TAF
PERIOD.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...PREDOMINANTLY MVFR IN SHRA. POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACY AND MIV THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TERMINALS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95, MAINLY FRI.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-95.

SAT AND SUN...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUED. WILL BE UPGRADED TO INCLUDE WIND GUSTS
25-30KT IN THE 330 AM FORECAST FOR AT LEAST NNJ 450-451 LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WAVES NEAR 4 FT NOW WILL STEADILY BUILD SO THAT TONIGHT THEY
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD 5-6 FT, POSSIBLY 7 FT VCNTY 44091.

OUTLOOK...

A VERY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD NEAR
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WIND
FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A SCA IS PROBABLE, GIVEN
BUILDING SEAS IN A NORTHEAST FETCH WED NIGHT THRU FRI. A SCA IS
NOW IN EFFECT THRU 12Z THU, FOR WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5FT, AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT RESIDUAL
5FT WAVES, THUS LOW PROBABILITY SCA MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUN...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP THRU AT LEAST
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRI. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING, THURSDAY EVENING, AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY
EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE
THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WE WILL BE TESTING THE SRF THIS MORNING FOR AN HOUR AROUND 630A
TO ENSURE CORRECT POSTING OF THE SRF PRODUCT FOR ITS MAY 20 530 AM
START UP.

HERE`S A SHORT USEFUL REVIEW OF RIP CURRENT SCIENCE PRODUCED BY A
PARTNERSHIP OF NWS AND OCEANS TODAY.

HTTP://OCEANTODAY.NOAA.GOV/RIPCURRENTSCIENCE/

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG 226
SHORT TERM...DRAG 226
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK 226
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK 226
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...226
RIP CURRENTS...226





000
FXUS61 KPHI 040627
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
227 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COAST, BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE 1045 PM UPDATE FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEWD INTO E MD AND E PA ATTM. TEMPS NEARLY
STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK. LIGHT NE WIND.

AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS AND DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY
I-95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DELMARVA OR EVEN
SE PA OR S NJ IN RESPONSE TO A POCKET OF INSTABILITY ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH A KI POOL 30+ AND TT NEAR 52 AS WELL AS A WEAK 850MB TROUGH.
QPF IS THAT FROM WPC. SHOULD BE SMALL POCKETS OF EMBEDDED .25 TO .5
INCHES TODAY, SINCE PWAT INCREASES TO ABOUT 1 INCH. NE WIND GUSTY
15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON I-95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN CYCLONIC FLOW
WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4
GFS/NAM MOS...FAVORING THE COLDER SIDE AS WE DRAW FROM THE COOLER
WET BULB RESERVOIR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES BUT A CONTD
MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF MEASURABLE DRIZZLE
AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS. 50 50 BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM
GUIDANCE. WE SEE THE SPC WRF DRIES US OUT CONSIDERABLY TONIGHT SO
POPS ARE GENERALLY 60 PCT N AND 30-40 PCT SOUTH. NE WIND GUSTY
NEAR 15 MPH... EXPECT 20-25 MPH MONMOUTH COUNTY COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID-LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY INCLUDE A MEAN
VORTEX NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED NORTHERN HUDSON`S BAY WITH AN
OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP A SPLIT FLOW OVER NOAM. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT WILL CARVE OUT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU, WHICH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH
AND GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A STOUT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON`S BAY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WILL BREAK DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK, AND EJECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER, AND A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE LEFT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET, MAINTAINING A WEAK OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE,
WHICH WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY
MOIST WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, FAVORING LIGHT AND SPOTTY PRECIP
MAINLY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS ENHANCED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW, WITH HEIGHTS OF
NEGATIVE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS, CLOSES OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI, AND GRADUALLY FILLS, AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE LEADS TO MODEST CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE VA CAPES THU NIGHT,
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR THE DE/NJ COAST FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW, PARTICULARLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT
DEVELOPS THU NIGHT, THEN HOW FAST IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT. THE NAM
IS FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH THU NIGHT, WITH A GREATER PRESSURE
GRADIENT NORTHWARD INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN LONGER DURATION OF
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. FORTUNATELY, THE CONFLUENT REGION OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOW, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE
WIND POTENTIAL, I.E., LACK OF A ROBUST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET. THE
ECMWF MAY BE LIFTING THE LOW TOO QUICKLY NORTHEAST SATURDAY, GIVEN
THE VERTICALLY STACKED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS AN OUTLIER.

OVERALL, A WET PERIOD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION, WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE ALIGNS WITH THE STRONGEST PVA. WITH THE LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET, AS WELL AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, THE HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THUS, EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO INCREASE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE,
WITH EARLY ESTIMATES UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES NORTHWEST OF I-95.
GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE RAINFALL, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE. WHILE WE HAVE NOT INSERTED
THUNDER AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA FRIDAY, WITH 500 HPA TEMPS APPROACHING -24C! MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MODELED TO APPROACH 7C/KM, WITH MODEST ELEVATED
CAPE. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF THUNDER. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, WINDS
COULD GUST UP TO AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS TEND TO AMPLIFY THIS SHORT-
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF PRECIP, AS WELL AS GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO BE UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME, SO THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FAIR WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH
TEMPERATURES AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY TODAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG. SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY KRDG/KABE/KILG WHICH WILL RESULT
IN PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NE WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. ISOLATED THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE PER
NAM/GFS INSTABILITY ALOFT, MAINLY DELMARVA OR SE PA/S NJ. NE WIND
WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS
DIMINISHING OR ENDING EARLY/PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. POSSIBLE LIFR
CIGS. NE WIND G 15-20 KT POSSIBLE KPHL-KTTN-KACY.

OUTLOOK...

OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY TAF
PERIOD.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...PREDOMINANTLY MVFR IN SHRA. POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACY AND MIV THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TERMINALS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95, MAINLY FRI.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-95.

SAT AND SUN...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUED. WILL BE UPGRADED TO INCLUDE WIND GUSTS
25-30KT IN THE 330 AM FORECAST FOR AT LEAST NNJ 450-451 LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WAVES NEAR 4 FT NOW WILL STEADILY BUILD SO THAT TONIGHT THEY
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD 5-6 FT, POSSIBLY 7 FT VCNTY 44091.

OUTLOOK...

A VERY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD NEAR
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WIND
FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A SCA IS PROBABLE, GIVEN
BUILDING SEAS IN A NORTHEAST FETCH WED NIGHT THRU FRI. A SCA IS
NOW IN EFFECT THRU 12Z THU, FOR WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5FT, AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT RESIDUAL
5FT WAVES, THUS LOW PROBABILITY SCA MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUN...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP THRU AT LEAST
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRI. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING, THURSDAY EVENING, AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY
EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE
THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WE WILL BE TESTING THE SRF THIS MORNING FOR AN HOUR AROUND 630A
TO ENSURE CORRECT POSTING OF THE SRF PRODUCT FOR ITS MAY 20 530 AM
START UP.

HERE`S A SHORT USEFUL REVIEW OF RIP CURRENT SCIENCE PRODUCED BY A
PARTNERSHIP OF NWS AND OCEANS TODAY.

HTTP://OCEANTODAY.NOAA.GOV/RIPCURRENTSCIENCE/

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG 226
SHORT TERM...DRAG 226
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK 226
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK 226
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...226
RIP CURRENTS...226





000
FXUS61 KPHI 040516
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
116 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COAST, BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE 1045 PM UPDATE FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEWD INTO E MD AND E PA ATTM. TEMPS
NEARLY STEADY THROUGH DAYBREAK. LIGHT NE WIND.

AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS AND DRIZZLE,
ESPECIALLY I95 CORRIDOR WESTWARD. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE
DELMARVA OR EVEN SE PA OR S NJ IN RESPONSE TO A POCKET OF INSTABILITY
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A KI POOL 30+ AND TT NEAR 52 AS WELL AS A
WEAK 850 TROUGH. QPF IS THAT FROM WPC. COULD BE POCKETS OF .25 TO
.5 INCHES TODAY, SINCE PWAT INCREASES TO ABOUT 1 INCH. NE WIND
GUSTY 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON I95 CORRIDOR EASTWARD IN CYCLONIC
FLOW WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. 50 50 BLENDED
00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS...FAVORING THE COLDER SIDE AS WE DRAW FROM THE COOLER
WET BULB RESERVOIR OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
PWAT DRIES TO 0.75 INCHES AND INSTABILITY ALOFT DECREASES SOMEWHAT
BUT A CONTD MOIST CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH PROBABLY PERIODS OF
MEASURABLE DRIZZLE AND MAYBE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS. 50 50
BLENDED 00Z/4 GFS NAM GUIDANCE. MORE LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID-LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY INCLUDE A MEAN
VORTEX NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED NORTHERN HUDSON`S BAY WITH AN
OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP A SPLIT FLOW OVER NOAM. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT WILL CARVE OUT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU, WHICH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH
AND GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A STOUT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON`S BAY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WILL BREAK DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK, AND EJECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER, AND A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE LEFT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET, MAINTAINING A WEAK OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE,
WHICH WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY
MOIST WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, FAVORING LIGHT AND SPOTTY PRECIP
MAINLY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS ENHANCED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW, WITH HEIGHTS OF
NEGATIVE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS, CLOSES OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI, AND GRADUALLY FILLS, AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE LEADS TO MODEST CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE VA CAPES THU NIGHT,
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR THE DE/NJ COAST FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW, PARTICULARLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT
DEVELOPS THU NIGHT, THEN HOW FAST IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT. THE NAM
IS FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH THU NIGHT, WITH A GREATER PRESSURE
GRADIENT NORTHWARD INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN LONGER DURATION OF
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. FORTUNATELY, THE CONFLUENT REGION OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOW, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE
WIND POTENTIAL, I.E., LACK OF A ROBUST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET. THE
ECMWF MAY BE LIFTING THE LOW TOO QUICKLY NORTHEAST SATURDAY, GIVEN
THE VERTICALLY STACKED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS AN OUTLIER.

OVERALL, A WET PERIOD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION, WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE ALIGNS WITH THE STRONGEST PVA. WITH THE LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET, AS WELL AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, THE HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THUS, EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO INCREASE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE,
WITH EARLY ESTIMATES UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES NORTHWEST OF I-95.
GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE RAINFALL, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE. WHILE WE HAVE NOT INSERTED
THUNDER AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA FRIDAY, WITH 500 HPA TEMPS APPROACHING -24C! MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MODELED TO APPROACH 7C/KM, WITH MODEST ELEVATED
CAPE. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF THUNDER. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, WINDS
COULD GUST UP TO AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS TEND TO AMPLIFY THIS SHORT-
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF PRECIP, AS WELL AS GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO BE UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME, SO THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FAIR WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH
TEMPERATURES AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY TODAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG. SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY KRDG/KABE/KILG WHICH WILL RESULT
IN PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NE WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. ISOLATED THUNDER NOT
IMPOSSIBLE PER NAM/GFS INSTABILITY ALOFT, MAINLY DELMARVA OR SE
PA/S NJ. NE WIND WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN SCT SHOWERS/
PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. POSSIBLE LIFR CIGS. NE WIND G 15-20 KT
POSSIBLE KPHL-KTTN-KACY.

OUTLOOK...

OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY TAF
PERIOD.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...PREDOMINANTLY MVFR IN SHRA. POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACY AND MIV THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TERMINALS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95, MAINLY FRI.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-95.

SAT AND SUN...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUED. WILL BE UPGRADED TO INCLUDE WIND GUSTS
25-30KT IN THE 330 AM FORECAST FOR AT LEAST NNJ 450-451 LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SST`S ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

WAVES NEAR 4 FT NOW WILL STEADILY BUILD SO THAT TONIGHT THEY
SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD 5-6 FT, POSSIBLY 7 FT VCNTY 44091.

OUTLOOK...

A VERY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED LATE
THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD NEAR
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE WIND
FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A SCA IS PROBABLE, GIVEN
BUILDING SEAS IN A NORTHEAST FETCH WED NIGHT THRU FRI. A SCA IS
NOW IN EFFECT THRU 12Z THU, FOR WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5FT, AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT RESIDUAL
5FT WAVES, THUS LOW PROBABILITY SCA MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUN...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WED THRU
AT LEAST FRI TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRI. ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, THURSDAY EVENING,
AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THIS SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING REFERENCING TRANSITION FROM MLLW TO MHHW.

&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
WE WILL BE TESTING THE SRF THIS MORNING FOR AN HOUR AROUND 630A TO
ENSURE CORRECT POSTING OF THE SRF PRODUCT FOR ITS MAY 20 530 AM
START UP.

HERE`S A SHORT USEFUL REVIEW OF RIP CURRENT SCIENCE PRODUCED BY A
PARTNERSHIP OF NWS AND OCEANS TODAY.

HTTP://OCEANTODAY.NOAA.GOV/RIPCURRENTSCIENCE/

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
     TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG 115
SHORT TERM...DRAG 115
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK 115
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK 115
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 115





000
FXUS61 KPHI 040307
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1107 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COAST, BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM ESTF: POPS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY PORTIONS E PA AND MD E
SHORE OVERNIGHT FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERY BAND DEVELOPING NEWD FROM
NORTHERN VA AND W MD... POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO WK INSTABILITY
BURST, INVERTED SFC TROUGH AND EMBEDDED WEAK SHORT WAVE IN THE
LARGER SCALE MAJOR TROUGH EVOLUTION AS SEEN ON WV IMAGERY. THE
POPS ADJUSTMENT IS SUPPORTED FCST BY MULTI MODELS. OVERNIGHT QPF
FCST FOR KRDG/MPO/KESN MAY BE LOW. ADDED FOG FOR THE POCONOS.
LIGHT NE WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF
VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND A
NORTHEAST WIND ARE AGAIN EXPECTED IN OUR REGION

THE AREA OF SHOWERS THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF OUR
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAVELING IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND IT SHOULD
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA AT
THAT TIME. POPS WERE INCREASED TO LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NJ
WITH THE EVENING ESTF UPDATE.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE
NORTHEAST WIND AND THE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID-LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY INCLUDE A MEAN
VORTEX NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED NORTHERN HUDSON`S BAY WITH AN
OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP A SPLIT FLOW OVER NOAM. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT WILL CARVE OUT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU, WHICH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH
AND GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A STOUT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON`S BAY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WILL BREAK DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK, AND EJECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER, AND A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE LEFT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET, MAINTAINING A WEAK OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE,
WHICH WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY
MOIST WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, FAVORING LIGHT AND SPOTTY PRECIP
MAINLY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS ENHANCED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW, WITH HEIGHTS OF
NEGATIVE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS, CLOSES OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI, AND GRADUALLY FILLS, AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE LEADS TO MODEST CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE VA CAPES THU NIGHT,
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR THE DE/NJ COAST FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW, PARTICULARLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT
DEVELOPS THU NIGHT, THEN HOW FAST IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT. THE NAM
IS FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH THU NIGHT, WITH A GREATER PRESSURE
GRADIENT NORTHWARD INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN LONGER DURATION OF
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. FORTUNATELY, THE CONFLUENT REGION OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOW, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE
WIND POTENTIAL, I.E., LACK OF A ROBUST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET. THE
ECMWF MAY BE LIFTING THE LOW TOO QUICKLY NORTHEAST SATURDAY, GIVEN
THE VERTICALLY STACKED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS AN OUTLIER.

OVERALL, A WET PERIOD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION, WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE ALIGNS WITH THE STRONGEST PVA. WITH THE LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET, AS WELL AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, THE HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THUS, EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO INCREASE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE,
WITH EARLY ESTIMATES UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES NORTHWEST OF I-95.
GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE RAINFALL, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE. WHILE WE HAVE NOT INSERTED
THUNDER AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA FRIDAY, WITH 500 HPA TEMPS APPROACHING -24C! MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MODELED TO APPROACH 7C/KM, WITH MODEST ELEVATED
CAPE. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF THUNDER. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, WINDS
COULD GUST UP TO AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS TEND TO AMPLIFY THIS SHORT-
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF PRECIP, AS WELL AS GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO BE UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME, SO THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FAIR WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH
TEMPERATURES AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2 TO 5 MI FOG. SHOWERS
AND DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP LATE, ESPECIALLY KRDG/KABE/KILG WITH MAY
RESULT IN PATCHY LIFR. LIGHT NE WIND.

WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY IFR CIGS WITH PATCHY 2-5 MI IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
PATCHY DRIZZLE-FOG. ISOLATED THUNDER NOT IMPOSSIBLE PER NAM INSTABILITY
ALOFT. NE WIND WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT VCNTY KPHL/KACY.

OUTLOOK...

OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE THU NIGHT THRU SUN TAF PERIOD.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...PREDOMINANTLY MVFR IN SHRA. POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACY AND MIV THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TERMINALS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95, MAINLY FRI.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-95.

SAT AND SUN...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA FOR SEAS CONTINUED. MAY BE UPGRADED TO INCLUDE WIND IN THE 330
AM WEDNESDAY FORECAST FOR NNJ 450-451.

THE SURFACE PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO
STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS, WHICH ARE
3 TO 4 FT THIS EVENING, MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY ON THE
WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY
HOOK TO CAPE MAY. IT BEGINS AT 900 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
A VERY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WED NIGHT THRU SAT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A SCA IS PROBABLE,
GIVEN BUILDING SEAS IN A NORTHEAST FETCH WED NIGHT THRU FRI. A SCA
IS NOW IN EFFECT THRU 12Z THU, FOR WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5FT, AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT RESIDUAL
5FT WAVES, THUS LOW PROBABILITY SCA MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUN...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WED THRU
AT LEAST FRI TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRI. ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, THURSDAY EVENING,
AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THIS SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING REFERENCING TRANSITION FROM MLLW TO MHHW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 1107
SHORT TERM...IOVINO/KLEIN
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK/KLEIN 1107
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK/IOVINO 1107
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 040127
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COAST, BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WAS POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NC
AND SOUTHEASTERN VA, EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FAR SOUTHERN
DELMARVA AND THEN OFF THE COAST. 00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY NEAR
THE VA-NC BORDER. MEANWHILE, THE RIDGE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA EXTENDED DOWN
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN SITUATED IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, PROMOTING THE CONTINUATION OF
WIDESPREAD STRATUS. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONG CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPED WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS AFTERNOON QUICKLY
WEAKENED AS IT MOVED EASTWARD THIS EVENING INTO THE STABLE MARINE
LAYER RESIDING OVER THE AREA. LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH OUR CENTRAL
DELMARVA ZONES THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT THE EVENING TO BE
MAINLY DRY (IN TERMS OF MEASURABLE PRECIP) ACROSS THE AREA BUT
PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY DEVELOP.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BACKED OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AMPLIFIES UPSTREAM OF
US OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HELP STEER THE SHOWERS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY OVER THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY TOWARD OUR REGION. ADJUSTED
HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS TO TRY AND BETTER TIME THE OVERNIGHT ARRIVAL
OF THESE SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
COULD EVEN INCREASE TOWARD EARLY MORNING SINCE BACKING FLOW WOULD
ENHANCE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. ACCORDINGLY,
POPS WERE RAISED LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF
VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND A
NORTHEAST WIND ARE AGAIN EXPECTED IN OUR REGION

THE AREA OF SHOWERS THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF OUR
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAVELING IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND IT SHOULD
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA AT
THAT TIME. POPS WERE INCREASED TO LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NJ
WITH THE EVENING ESTF UPDATE.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE
NORTHEAST WIND AND THE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID-LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY INCLUDE A MEAN
VORTEX NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED NORTHERN HUDSON`S BAY WITH AN
OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP A SPLIT FLOW OVER NOAM. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT WILL CARVE OUT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU, WHICH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH
AND GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A STOUT
SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON`S BAY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WILL BREAK DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK, AND EJECT THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER, AND A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE LEFT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET, MAINTAINING A WEAK OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE,
WHICH WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY
MOIST WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, FAVORING LIGHT AND SPOTTY PRECIP
MAINLY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS ENHANCED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW, WITH HEIGHTS OF
NEGATIVE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS, CLOSES OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI, AND GRADUALLY FILLS, AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE LEADS TO MODEST CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE VA CAPES THU NIGHT,
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR THE DE/NJ COAST FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING
THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW, PARTICULARLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT
DEVELOPS THU NIGHT, THEN HOW FAST IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT. THE NAM
IS FURTHEST TO THE SOUTH THU NIGHT, WITH A GREATER PRESSURE
GRADIENT NORTHWARD INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN LONGER DURATION OF
GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. FORTUNATELY, THE CONFLUENT REGION OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LOW, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE
WIND POTENTIAL, I.E., LACK OF A ROBUST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET. THE
ECMWF MAY BE LIFTING THE LOW TOO QUICKLY NORTHEAST SATURDAY, GIVEN
THE VERTICALLY STACKED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS AN OUTLIER.

OVERALL, A WET PERIOD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION, WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE ALIGNS WITH THE STRONGEST PVA. WITH THE LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET, AS WELL AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, THE HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THUS, EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO INCREASE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE,
WITH EARLY ESTIMATES UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES NORTHWEST OF I-95.
GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE RAINFALL, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE. WHILE WE HAVE NOT INSERTED
THUNDER AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA FRIDAY, WITH 500 HPA TEMPS APPROACHING -24C! MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MODELED TO APPROACH 7C/KM, WITH MODEST ELEVATED
CAPE. IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF THUNDER. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, WINDS
COULD GUST UP TO AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS TEND TO AMPLIFY THIS SHORT-
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF PRECIP, AS WELL AS GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO BE UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME, SO THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FAIR WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH
TEMPERATURES AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

STRATUS DECK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. CIGS DID IMPROVE TO
MVFR AT RDG/PNE/PHL/ILG BUT REMAINED IFR ELSEWHERE. WHERE IT IS
CURRENTLY MVFR, CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO IFR BEFORE MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
EXCEPT MAYBE AT RDG. LIKEWISE, IFR CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO LIFR LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AND SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AS
WELL, BUT THE GREATER IMPACT ON AVIATION WILL BE THE LOW CLOUDS.

LOW CLOUDS AND IFR CIGS MAY LAST EVEN LONGER INTO THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY THAN THEY GENERALLY DID TODAY AS MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE INVERSION THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR PREVENTING THE LOW
CLOUDS FROM MIXING OUT WILL STRENGTHEN. ADDITIONALLY, SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME.

OUTLOOK...
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE THU NIGHT THRU SUN TAF PERIOD.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...PREDOMINANTLY MVFR IN SHRA. POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACY AND MIV THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TERMINALS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95, MAINLY FRI.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-95.

SAT AND SUN...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SURFACE PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO
STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS, WHICH ARE
3 TO 4 FT THIS EVENING, MAY BUILD TO 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY ON THE
WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY
HOOK TO CAPE MAY. IT BEGINS AT 900 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
A VERY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WED NIGHT THRU SAT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A SCA IS PROBABLE,
GIVEN BUILDING SEAS IN A NORTHEAST FETCH WED NIGHT THRU FRI. A SCA
IS NOW IN EFFECT THRU 12Z THU, FOR WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5FT, AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT RESIDUAL
5FT WAVES, THUS LOW PROBABILITY SCA MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUN...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WED THRU
AT LEAST FRI TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRI. ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, THURSDAY EVENING,
AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THE TRANSITION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...IOVINO/KLEIN
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/KLEIN
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KPHI 031940
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COAST, BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT AFFECTED OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT
AND THIS MORNING WAS CONTINUING TO MOVE OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, ANOTHER LOW WAS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA. IT
SHOULD DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD REACHING THE COAST NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA BORDER AROUND DAYBREAK.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE THE STRATUS WAS
BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AROUND MID AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING
INSOLATION SHOULD CAUSE THE BASES OF THE STRATUS TO LIFT A BIT
DURING THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON. ALSO, IT SHOULD BRING AN END TO
ANY PATCHY DRIZZLE IN OUR REGION.

THE STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN AFTER DARK. THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE IN WESTERN VIRGINIA
AROUND 330 PM MAY AFFECT SOME OF OUR COUNTIES IN NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND AND DELAWARE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN WEST VIRGINIA MAY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA SHOULD RECEIVE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN OUR
REGION. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 4OS AND LOWER
50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF
VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY LATE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS AND A
NORTHEAST WIND ARE AGAIN EXPECTED IN OUR REGION

THE AREA OF SHOWERS THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF OUR
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TRAVELING IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND IT SHOULD
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA AT
THAT TIME.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE
NORTHEAST WIND AND THE CLOUD COVER. HIGHS SHOULD FAVOR THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID-LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY INCLUDE A MEAN
VORTEX NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED NORTHERN HUDSON`S BAY WITH AN
OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP A SPLIT FLOW OVER NOAM. A VIRGOROUS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT WILL CARVE OUT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU, WHICH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH AND
GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A STOUT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON`S BAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL
BREAK DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK, AND EJECT THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO FAIR
WEATHER, AND A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE LEFT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET, MAINTAINING A WEAK OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE,
WHICH WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY
MOIST WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, FAVORING LIGHT AND SPOTTY PRECIP
MAINLY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS ENHANCED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW, WITH HEIGHTS OF
NEGATIVE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS, CLOSES OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI, AND GRADUALLY FILLS, AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE LEADS TO MODEST CYCLOGENSIS NEAR THE VA CAPES THU NIGHT, AS
THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR THE DE/NJ COAST FRI NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW, PARTICULARLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT DEVELOPS
THU NIGHT, THEN HOW FAST IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT. THE NAM IS FURTHEST
TO THE SOUTH THU NIGHT, WITH A GREATER PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTHWARD
INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN LONGER DURATION OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
COAST. FORTUNATELY, THE CONFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET IS
NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE LOW, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE WIND POTENTIAL, I.E., LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET. THE ECMWF MAY BE LIFTING THE LOW
TOO QUICKLY NORTHEAST SATURDAY, GIVEN THE VERTICALLY STACKED
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS AN OUTLIER.

OVERALL, A WET PERIOD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION, WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE ALIGNS WITH THE STRONGEST PVA. WITH THE LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET, AS WELL AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, THE HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THUS, EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO INCREASE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE,
WITH EARLY ESTIMATES UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES NORTHWEST OF I-95.
GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE RAINFALL, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE. WHILE WE HAVE NOT INSERTED
THUNDER AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA FRIDAY, WITH 500 HPA TEMPS APPROACHING -24C! MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MODELED TO APPOACH 7C/KM, WITH MODEST ELEVATED CAPE.
IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SLOWLY MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDER. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, WINDS COULD GUST UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS TEND TO AMPLIFY THIS SHORT-
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF PRECIP, AS WELL AS GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO BE UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME, SO THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FAIR WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH
TEMPERATURES AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER
BACK INTO THE IFR RANGE AFTER DARK AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN THERE WELL
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD BASES MAY LIFT SLIGHTLY FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN
THE HIGH END IFR TO LOW END MVFR RANGE. WE ARE ANTICIPATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AROUND KRDG AND KABE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
AT SPEEDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE THU NIGHT THRU SUN TAF PERIOD.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...PREDOMINANTLY MVFR IN SHRA. POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACY AND MIV THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TERMINALS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95, MAINLY FRI.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-95.

SAT AND SUN...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SURFACE PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO
STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS, WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 5
FEET, ESPECIALLY ON THE WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS FROM
SANDY HOOK TO CAPE MAY. IT BEGINS AT 900 AM WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
A VERY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WED NIGHT THRU SAT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A SCA IS PROBABLE,
GIVEN BUILDING SEAS IN A NORTHEAST FETCH WED NIGHT THRU FRI. A SCA
IS NOW IN EFFECT THRU 12Z THU, FOR WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5FT, AND WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT RESIDUAL
5FT WAVES, THUS LOW PROBABILITY SCA MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUN...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WED THRU
AT LEAST FRI TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRI. ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, THURSDAY EVENING,
AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THE TRANSITION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO
     8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>453.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KPHI 031932
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE VIRGINIA CAPES THURSDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY COAST, BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST AROUND 130 PM.
THE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON.
A SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST
AREA IN A NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR ABOVE
THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN THE LOW CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE THE STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING INSOLATION MAY
CAUSE THE LOW CLOUD DECK TO RISE A BIT AT THAT TIME.

THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS WELL TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND
DELAWARE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY BASED ON SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE.

THE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. READINGS WILL FALL SHORT OF THAT RANGE IN THE FAR
NORTH AND THEY WILL BE A BIT ABOVE THOSE VALUES IN PARTS OF
SOUTHERN DELAWARE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN SOME
TO OUR WEST DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
UNTIL TOWARD MORNING. THE 250 MB JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE RIGHT
OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT, REMOVING THE REGION FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE
AREA OF LIFT. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC RANGE AS SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE IDEA OF LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE MARINE INFLUENCE, AND
THEREFORE SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL DRYING IN PLACE.

WHILE SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT AS THE STRATUS MAY LIMIT THE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OVERALL. THEREFORE, OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FOG ATTM BUT THIS WILL BE
REVISITED LATER. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND
OVERALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL A LOT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER
AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY REMAINING UP DUE TO NEAR LOW-LEVEL
SATURATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MID-LEVEL FEATURES THROUGH FRIDAY INCLUDE A MEAN
VORTEX NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED NORTHERN HUDSON`S BAY WITH AN
OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP A SPLIT FLOW OVER NOAM. A VIRGOROUS SHORTWAVE
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WED NIGHT WILL CARVE OUT A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW
OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU, WHICH WILL SLOWLY MEANDER NORTH AND
GRADUALLY FILL THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER THRU EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A STOUT SHORTWAVE MOVING
ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF HUDSON`S BAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL
BREAK DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK, AND EJECT THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO FAIR
WEATHER, AND A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN A COOL AND MOIST
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE LEFT-REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET, MAINTAINING A WEAK OF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE,
WHICH WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE BAY OF FUNDY. THE COLUMN WILL BE VERY
MOIST WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS, FAVORING LIGHT AND SPOTTY PRECIP
MAINLY WEST OF THE FALL LINE, WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS ENHANCED.

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEP MID-LEVEL LOW, WITH HEIGHTS OF
NEGATIVE 3-4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS, CLOSES OFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI, AND GRADUALLY FILLS, AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SAT. THE VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE LEADS TO MODEST CYCLOGENSIS NEAR THE VA CAPES THU NIGHT, AS
THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED NEAR THE DE/NJ COAST FRI NIGHT
INTO EARLY SAT. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW, PARTICULARLY HOW FAR SOUTH IT DEVELOPS
THU NIGHT, THEN HOW FAST IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT. THE NAM IS FURTHEST
TO THE SOUTH THU NIGHT, WITH A GREATER PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTHWARD
INTO FRIDAY, RESULTING IN LONGER DURATION OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
COAST. FORTUNATELY, THE CONFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET IS
NOT FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE LOW, WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE WIND POTENTIAL, I.E., LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY JET. THE ECMWF MAY BE LIFTING THE LOW
TOO QUICKLY NORTHEAST SATURDAY, GIVEN THE VERTICALLY STACKED
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS AN OUTLIER.

OVERALL, A WET PERIOD DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION, WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE ALIGNS WITH THE STRONGEST PVA. WITH THE LACK OF A
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET, AS WELL AS THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, THE HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS.
THUS, EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO INCREASE AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE,
WITH EARLY ESTIMATES UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES NORTHWEST OF I-95.
GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE RAINFALL, URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE. WHILE WE HAVE NOT INSERTED
THUNDER AT THIS POINT IN THE FORECAST, MID-LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BE
OVER DELMARVA FRIDAY, WITH 500 HPA TEMPS APPROACHING -24C! MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE MODELED TO APPOACH 7C/KM, WITH MODEST ELEVATED CAPE.
IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL. AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SLOWLY MOVES NORTH
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY, CANNOT RULE OUT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDER. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, WINDS COULD GUST UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY...CLIPPER-TYPE SHORTWAVE QUICKLY FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO LEAD TO A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS TEND TO AMPLIFY THIS SHORT-
WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF PRECIP, AS WELL AS GUSTY POST-FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS.
A PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALSO BE UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME, SO THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW AMPLIFIED THIS FEATURE WILL BE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...FAIR WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH
TEMPERATURES AOA SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AFFECTING OUR REGION. CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TO LOWER BACK INTO THE IFR RANGE AFTER DARK AND THEY
SHOULD REMAIN THERE WELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD BASES MAY
LIFT SLIGHTLY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE HIGH END IFR TO LOW END MVFR RANGE.
WE ARE ANTICIPATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, AT SPEEDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
OVERALL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE THU NIGHT THRU SUN TAF PERIOD.

THU NIGHT AND FRI...PREDOMINANTLY MVFR IN SHRA. POCKETS OF IFR
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACY AND MIV THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI.
NORTHEAST WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TERMINALS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF I-95, MAINLY FRI.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-95.

SAT AND SUN...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE THIS MAY SOME
INCREASE FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.
SINCE THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH, SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS. THEREFORE, THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
A VERY PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WED NIGHT THRU SAT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT A SCA IS PROBABLE,
GIVEN BUILDING SEAS IN A NORTHEAST FETCH WED NIGHT THRU FRI. A
SCA IS NOW IN EFFECT THRU 12Z THU, FOR WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5FT,
AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO FRI.

SATURDAY...SEAS SHOULD BE SUBSIDING, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT RESIDUAL
5FT WAVES, THUS LOW PROBABILITY SCA MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE.

SUN...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH SCA
LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WED THRU
AT LEAST FRI TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON FRI. ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING AROUND
THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, THURSDAY EVENING,
AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THE TRANSITION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KPHI 031748
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
148 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT FARTHER OUT TO SEA WITH ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY. A PIECE OF THE
LOW MAY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD CAPE COD LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST
LATER THIS WEEK. THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA SATURDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWING SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT HERE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST AROUND 130 PM.
THE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON.
A SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST
AREA IN A NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR ABOVE
THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN THE LOW CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE THE STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING INSOLATION MAY
CAUSE THE LOW CLOUD DECK TO RISE A BIT AT THAT TIME.

THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS WELL TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND
DELAWARE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY BASED ON SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE.

THE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. READINGS WILL FALL SHORT OF THAT RANGE IN THE FAR
NORTH AND THEY WILL BE A BIT ABOVE THOSE VALUES IN PARTS OF
SOUTHERN DELAWARE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN SOME
TO OUR WEST DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
UNTIL TOWARD MORNING. THE 250 MB JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE RIGHT
OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT, REMOVING THE REGION FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE
AREA OF LIFT. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC RANGE AS SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE IDEA OF LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE MARINE INFLUENCE, AND
THEREFORE SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL DRYING IN PLACE.

WHILE SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT AS THE STRATUS MAY LIMIT THE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OVERALL. THEREFORE, OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FOG ATTM BUT THIS WILL BE
REVISITED LATER. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND
OVERALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL A LOT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER
AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY REMAINING UP DUE TO NEAR LOW-LEVEL
SATURATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE.

A VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATER THIS WEEK THEN WEAKEN EASTWARD THIS COMING WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO INTERACTION WITH A CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE OVER HUDSON
BAY.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED-
FRI, NEAR NORMAL SAT-MON.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
REGION.

SHOWER/RAIN GENERATION IS BLAMED IN PART ON INSTABILITY AS THE
COLD POOL EVOLVES OVERHEAD WITH THE 500MB TEMP AT PHL -14C THIS
MORNING COOLING TO -23C FRIDAY, AND SOME OF IT ATLANTIC INFLOW AS
THE 850-700MB LOW MAY HUG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH DEEP
MOISTURE JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK.

MUCH OF THE TIME FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
RAIN-FREE BUT TIMING THE PERIODIC LULLS IN RAINFALL WAS NOT
CONFIDENTLY ASSESSED THIS MORNING.

IF IT CLEARS A BIT FOR A FEW HOURS AT NIGHT, THEN FOG COULD
DEVELOP.

OVERALL, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND
NIGHTTIME MINS NEAR NORMAL (NARROW DIURNALS DUE TO MOISTURE)

NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT SHOULD BRIGHTEN AND WARM
UP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE SUNDAY
MORNING BUT AT THIS TIME ANY RAIN OCCURRENCE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
AS PROLONGED AS WHAT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AFFECTING OUR REGION. CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TO LOWER BACK INTO THE IFR RANGE AFTER DARK AND THEY
SHOULD REMAIN THERE WELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD BASES MAY
LIFT SLIGHTLY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE HIGH END IFR TO LOW END MVFR RANGE.
WE ARE ANTICIPATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, AT SPEEDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
PERIOD. CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE RAIN SHOWERS.
IN A GENERAL A NORTHEAST WIND, WHICH MAY BECOME GUSTY 15 TO 20 KT
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE THIS MAY SOME
INCREASE FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.
SINCE THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH, SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS. THEREFORE, THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD AROUND 5 FEET IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SCA PROBABLE IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING OFF THE NJ COAST. ATLANTIC SEAS WERE CAPPED AT
6 FEET, 1-2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE, DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF
OUR MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON ON
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE (6-7 PM EDT) ON WEDNESDAY EVENING,
THURSDAY EVENING AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING (WITHIN 1 HOUR OF
THE HIGH TIDE NEAR 8PM), PENDING MODELS CONTINUING TO FOCUS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATER THIS WEEK. THE
FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL ONLY NEED A SURGE OF .7 FEET
TO RAISE THE WATER LEVEL TO MINOR THRESHOLD. THERE IS EVEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING BUT
WE CANT SAY THIS WITH CONFIDENCE SINCE ITS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THE TRANSITION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 031748
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
148 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT FARTHER OUT TO SEA WITH ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY. A PIECE OF THE
LOW MAY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD CAPE COD LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST
LATER THIS WEEK. THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA SATURDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWING SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT HERE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST AROUND 130 PM.
THE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA THIS AFTERNOON.
A SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST
AREA IN A NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR ABOVE
THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN THE LOW CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE THE STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING INSOLATION MAY
CAUSE THE LOW CLOUD DECK TO RISE A BIT AT THAT TIME.

THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS WELL TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND
DELAWARE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY BASED ON SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE.

THE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. READINGS WILL FALL SHORT OF THAT RANGE IN THE FAR
NORTH AND THEY WILL BE A BIT ABOVE THOSE VALUES IN PARTS OF
SOUTHERN DELAWARE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN SOME
TO OUR WEST DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
UNTIL TOWARD MORNING. THE 250 MB JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE RIGHT
OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT, REMOVING THE REGION FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE
AREA OF LIFT. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC RANGE AS SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE IDEA OF LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE MARINE INFLUENCE, AND
THEREFORE SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL DRYING IN PLACE.

WHILE SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT AS THE STRATUS MAY LIMIT THE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OVERALL. THEREFORE, OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FOG ATTM BUT THIS WILL BE
REVISITED LATER. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND
OVERALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL A LOT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER
AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY REMAINING UP DUE TO NEAR LOW-LEVEL
SATURATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE.

A VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATER THIS WEEK THEN WEAKEN EASTWARD THIS COMING WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO INTERACTION WITH A CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE OVER HUDSON
BAY.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED-
FRI, NEAR NORMAL SAT-MON.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
REGION.

SHOWER/RAIN GENERATION IS BLAMED IN PART ON INSTABILITY AS THE
COLD POOL EVOLVES OVERHEAD WITH THE 500MB TEMP AT PHL -14C THIS
MORNING COOLING TO -23C FRIDAY, AND SOME OF IT ATLANTIC INFLOW AS
THE 850-700MB LOW MAY HUG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH DEEP
MOISTURE JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK.

MUCH OF THE TIME FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
RAIN-FREE BUT TIMING THE PERIODIC LULLS IN RAINFALL WAS NOT
CONFIDENTLY ASSESSED THIS MORNING.

IF IT CLEARS A BIT FOR A FEW HOURS AT NIGHT, THEN FOG COULD
DEVELOP.

OVERALL, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND
NIGHTTIME MINS NEAR NORMAL (NARROW DIURNALS DUE TO MOISTURE)

NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT SHOULD BRIGHTEN AND WARM
UP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE SUNDAY
MORNING BUT AT THIS TIME ANY RAIN OCCURRENCE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
AS PROLONGED AS WHAT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE AFFECTING OUR REGION. CEILINGS ARE
FORECAST TO LOWER BACK INTO THE IFR RANGE AFTER DARK AND THEY
SHOULD REMAIN THERE WELL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUD BASES MAY
LIFT SLIGHTLY FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE HIGH END IFR TO LOW END MVFR RANGE.
WE ARE ANTICIPATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, AT SPEEDS MAINLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
PERIOD. CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE RAIN SHOWERS.
IN A GENERAL A NORTHEAST WIND, WHICH MAY BECOME GUSTY 15 TO 20 KT
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE THIS MAY SOME
INCREASE FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.
SINCE THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH, SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS. THEREFORE, THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD AROUND 5 FEET IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SCA PROBABLE IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING OFF THE NJ COAST. ATLANTIC SEAS WERE CAPPED AT
6 FEET, 1-2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE, DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF
OUR MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON ON
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE (6-7 PM EDT) ON WEDNESDAY EVENING,
THURSDAY EVENING AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING (WITHIN 1 HOUR OF
THE HIGH TIDE NEAR 8PM), PENDING MODELS CONTINUING TO FOCUS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATER THIS WEEK. THE
FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL ONLY NEED A SURGE OF .7 FEET
TO RAISE THE WATER LEVEL TO MINOR THRESHOLD. THERE IS EVEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING BUT
WE CANT SAY THIS WITH CONFIDENCE SINCE ITS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THE TRANSITION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 031544
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST
LATE THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT FARTHER OUT TO SEA WITH ANOTHER LOW
DEVELOPING IN THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE TODAY. A PIECE OF THE
LOW MAY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD CAPE COD LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE
PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST
LATER THIS WEEK. THE LOW MOVES OUT TO SEA SATURDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWING SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT HERE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST
AROUND 1130 AM. THE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA
THIS AFTERNOON. A SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST
AREA IN A NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR ABOVE
THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN THE LOW CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION.
THE BACK EDGE OF THE DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE THE STRATUS IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE INCREASING INSOLATION MAY
CAUSE THE LOW CLOUD DECK TO RISE A BIT AT THAT TIME.

THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS WELL TO OUR EAST LATE THIS
MORNING. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE THAN SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND
DELAWARE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY BASED ON SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE.

THE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN MOST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. READINGS WILL FALL SHORT OF THAT RANGE IN THE FAR
NORTH AND THEY WILL BE A BIT ABOVE THOSE VALUES IN PARTS OF
SOUTHERN DELAWARE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN SOME
TO OUR WEST DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
UNTIL TOWARD MORNING. THE 250 MB JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE RIGHT
OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT, REMOVING THE REGION FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE
AREA OF LIFT. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC RANGE AS SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE IDEA OF LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE MARINE INFLUENCE, AND
THEREFORE SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL DRYING IN PLACE.

WHILE SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT AS THE STRATUS MAY LIMIT THE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OVERALL. THEREFORE, OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FOG ATTM BUT THIS WILL BE
REVISITED LATER. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND
OVERALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL A LOT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER
AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY REMAINING UP DUE TO NEAR LOW-LEVEL
SATURATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE.

A VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATER THIS WEEK THEN WEAKEN EASTWARD THIS COMING WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO INTERACTION WITH A CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE OVER HUDSON
BAY.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED-
FRI, NEAR NORMAL SAT-MON.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
REGION.

SHOWER/RAIN GENERATION IS BLAMED IN PART ON INSTABILITY AS THE
COLD POOL EVOLVES OVERHEAD WITH THE 500MB TEMP AT PHL -14C THIS
MORNING COOLING TO -23C FRIDAY, AND SOME OF IT ATLANTIC INFLOW AS
THE 850-700MB LOW MAY HUG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH DEEP
MOISTURE JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK.

MUCH OF THE TIME FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
RAIN-FREE BUT TIMING THE PERIODIC LULLS IN RAINFALL WAS NOT
CONFIDENTLY ASSESSED THIS MORNING.

IF IT CLEARS A BIT FOR A FEW HOURS AT NIGHT, THEN FOG COULD
DEVELOP.

OVERALL, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND
NIGHTTIME MINS NEAR NORMAL (NARROW DIURNALS DUE TO MOISTURE)

NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT SHOULD BRIGHTEN AND WARM
UP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE SUNDAY
MORNING BUT AT THIS TIME ANY RAIN OCCURRENCE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
AS PROLONGED AS WHAT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THE VISIBILITY WILL FAVOR VFR BIT IT MAY FALL TO
IFR IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE.OUR CONFIDENCE ON THE
EXTENT OF THE CEILING IMPROVEMENTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS ON
THE LOW SIDE. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

TONIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE, WITH LOCAL MVFR
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS 3-6 KNOTS OVERALL.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE RAIN SHOWERS. IN A
GENERAL A NORTHEAST WIND, WHICH MAY BECOME GUSTY 15 TO 20 KT AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT WILL KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE THIS MAY SOME
INCREASE FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS.
SINCE THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH, SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS. THEREFORE, THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD AROUND 5 FEET IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SCA PROBABLE IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING OFF THE NJ COAST. ATLANTIC SEAS WERE CAPPED AT
6 FEET, 1-2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE, DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF
OUR MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON ON
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE (6-7 PM EDT) ON WEDNESDAY EVENING,
THURSDAY EVENING AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING (WITHIN 1 HOUR OF
THE HIGH TIDE NEAR 8PM), PENDING MODELS CONTINUING TO FOCUS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATER THIS WEEK. THE
FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL ONLY NEED A SURGE OF .7 FEET
TO RAISE THE WATER LEVEL TO MINOR THRESHOLD. THERE IS EVEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING BUT
WE CANT SAY THIS WITH CONFIDENCE SINCE ITS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THE TRANSITION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 031300
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR DELAWARE BAY AT MID MORNING WILL
PASS OFF THE COAST WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATER TODAY. A PIECE OF THE LOW MAY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD
CAPE COD LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER THIS WEEK. THE LOW MOVES
OUT TO SEA SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWING
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT HERE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN THE DELAWARE BAY VICINITY AROUND 830
AM. THE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA TODAY. A SECONDARY
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST
AREA IN A NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR ABOVE
THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN THE LOW CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION.

THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF
OUR AREA AT MID MORNING. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
BASED ON SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN SOME
TO OUR WEST DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
UNTIL TOWARD MORNING. THE 250 MB JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE RIGHT
OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT, REMOVING THE REGION FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE
AREA OF LIFT. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC RANGE AS SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE IDEA OF LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE MARINE INFLUENCE, AND
THEREFORE SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL DRYING IN PLACE.

WHILE SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT AS THE STRATUS MAY LIMIT THE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OVERALL. THEREFORE, OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FOG ATTM BUT THIS WILL BE
REVISITED LATER. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND
OVERALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL A LOT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER
AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY REMAINING UP DUE TO NEAR LOW-LEVEL
SATURATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE.

A VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATER THIS WEEK THEN WEAKEN EASTWARD THIS COMING WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO INTERACTION WITH A CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE OVER HUDSON
BAY.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED-
FRI, NEAR NORMAL SAT-MON.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
REGION.

SHOWER/RAIN GENERATION IS BLAMED IN PART ON INSTABILITY AS THE
COLD POOL EVOLVES OVERHEAD WITH THE 500MB TEMP AT PHL -14C THIS
MORNING COOLING TO -23C FRIDAY, AND SOME OF IT ATLANTIC INFLOW AS
THE 850-700MB LOW MAY HUG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH DEEP
MOISTURE JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK.

MUCH OF THE TIME FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
RAIN-FREE BUT TIMING THE PERIODIC LULLS IN RAINFALL WAS NOT
CONFIDENTLY ASSESSED THIS MORNING.

IF IT CLEARS A BIT FOR A FEW HOURS AT NIGHT, THEN FOG COULD
DEVELOP.

OVERALL, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND
NIGHTTIME MINS NEAR NORMAL (NARROW DIURNALS DUE TO MOISTURE)

NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT SHOULD BRIGHTEN AND WARM
UP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE SUNDAY
MORNING BUT AT THIS TIME ANY RAIN OCCURRENCE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
AS PROLONGED AS WHAT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VISIBILITY WILL FAVOR VFR NOW THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS
ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION. OUR CONFIDENCE HOWEVER
ON THE EXTENT OF THE CEILING IMPROVEMENTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
IS ON THE LOWER SIDE. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

TONIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE, WITH LOCAL MVFR
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS 3-6 KNOTS OVERALL.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE RAIN SHOWERS. IN A
GENERAL A NORTHEAST WIND, WHICH MAY BECOME GUSTY 15 TO 20 KT AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE THIS MAY SOME INCREASE FOR A
TIME ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. SINCE
THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH, SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
4 FEET OR LESS. THEREFORE, THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD AROUND 5 FEET IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SCA PROBABLE IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING OFF THE NJ COAST. ATLANTIC SEAS WERE CAPPED AT
6 FEET, 1-2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE, DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF
OUR MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON ON
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE (6-7 PM EDT) ON WEDNESDAY EVENING,
THURSDAY EVENING AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING (WITHIN 1 HOUR OF
THE HIGH TIDE NEAR 8PM), PENDING MODELS CONTINUING TO FOCUS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATER THIS WEEK. THE
FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL ONLY NEED A SURGE OF .7 FEET
TO RAISE THE WATER LEVEL TO MINOR THRESHOLD. THERE IS EVEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING BUT
WE CANT SAY THIS WITH CONFIDENCE SINCE ITS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THE TRANSITION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 031300
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR DELAWARE BAY AT MID MORNING WILL
PASS OFF THE COAST WITH ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION LATER TODAY. A PIECE OF THE LOW MAY MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD
CAPE COD LATE WEDNESDAY WHILE THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER THIS WEEK. THE LOW MOVES
OUT TO SEA SATURDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWING
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BECOME DOMINANT HERE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN THE DELAWARE BAY VICINITY AROUND 830
AM. THE LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA TODAY. A SECONDARY
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST
AREA IN A NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR ABOVE
THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD MAINTAIN THE LOW CLOUDS OVER OUR REGION.

THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF
OUR AREA AT MID MORNING. WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY
BASED ON SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHARPEN SOME
TO OUR WEST DURING THE COURSE OF TONIGHT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A MORE FOCUSED SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
UNTIL TOWARD MORNING. THE 250 MB JET IS FORECAST TO MOVE RIGHT
OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT, REMOVING THE REGION FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE
AREA OF LIFT. AS A RESULT, WE KEPT POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC RANGE AS SOME SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE IDEA OF LOW
CLOUDS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE MARINE INFLUENCE, AND
THEREFORE SOME DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL DRYING IN PLACE.

WHILE SOME FOG MAY BE AROUND IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT AS THE STRATUS MAY LIMIT THE ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OVERALL. THEREFORE, OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE FOG ATTM BUT THIS WILL BE
REVISITED LATER. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND
OVERALL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL A LOT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER
AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY REMAINING UP DUE TO NEAR LOW-LEVEL
SATURATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS OF THIS FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE.

A VERTICALLY DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL FORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATER THIS WEEK THEN WEAKEN EASTWARD THIS COMING WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO INTERACTION WITH A CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE OVER HUDSON
BAY.

CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPS: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WED-
FRI, NEAR NORMAL SAT-MON.

CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL DOMINATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY EVENING WITH SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AFFECTING THE
REGION.

SHOWER/RAIN GENERATION IS BLAMED IN PART ON INSTABILITY AS THE
COLD POOL EVOLVES OVERHEAD WITH THE 500MB TEMP AT PHL -14C THIS
MORNING COOLING TO -23C FRIDAY, AND SOME OF IT ATLANTIC INFLOW AS
THE 850-700MB LOW MAY HUG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH DEEP
MOISTURE JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK.

MUCH OF THE TIME FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BE
RAIN-FREE BUT TIMING THE PERIODIC LULLS IN RAINFALL WAS NOT
CONFIDENTLY ASSESSED THIS MORNING.

IF IT CLEARS A BIT FOR A FEW HOURS AT NIGHT, THEN FOG COULD
DEVELOP.

OVERALL, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL AND
NIGHTTIME MINS NEAR NORMAL (NARROW DIURNALS DUE TO MOISTURE)

NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT SHOULD BRIGHTEN AND WARM
UP TO NEAR NORMAL AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS WITH ITS PASSAGE SUNDAY
MORNING BUT AT THIS TIME ANY RAIN OCCURRENCE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE
AS PROLONGED AS WHAT MAY OCCUR LATER THIS WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VISIBILITY WILL FAVOR VFR NOW THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS
ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION. OUR CONFIDENCE HOWEVER
ON THE EXTENT OF THE CEILING IMPROVEMENTS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
IS ON THE LOWER SIDE. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

TONIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WITH A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE, WITH LOCAL MVFR
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. NORTHEAST WINDS 3-6 KNOTS OVERALL.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VARYING BETWEEN VFR CIGS AND MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE PERIOD.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE RAIN SHOWERS. IN A
GENERAL A NORTHEAST WIND, WHICH MAY BECOME GUSTY 15 TO 20 KT AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP AN ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. WHILE THIS MAY SOME INCREASE FOR A
TIME ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, IT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS. SINCE
THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ENOUGH, SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
4 FEET OR LESS. THEREFORE, THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD AROUND 5 FEET IN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SCA PROBABLE IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING OFF THE NJ COAST. ATLANTIC SEAS WERE CAPPED AT
6 FEET, 1-2 FT BELOW GUIDANCE, DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL LOW.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG DURATION NORTHEASTERLY FETCH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF
OUR MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE APPROACH THE NEW MOON ON
FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE (6-7 PM EDT) ON WEDNESDAY EVENING,
THURSDAY EVENING AND MORE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING (WITHIN 1 HOUR OF
THE HIGH TIDE NEAR 8PM), PENDING MODELS CONTINUING TO FOCUS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATER THIS WEEK. THE
FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL ONLY NEED A SURGE OF .7 FEET
TO RAISE THE WATER LEVEL TO MINOR THRESHOLD. THERE IS EVEN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF REACHING A MODERATE THRESHOLD FRIDAY EVENING BUT
WE CANT SAY THIS WITH CONFIDENCE SINCE ITS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW FORMING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST.

AS A SIDE NOTE: IT IS OUR UNDERSTANDING THAT EVENTUALLY WE WILL
BEGIN REFERENCING COASTAL FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO MHHW WHICH WILL
EQUATE TO INUNDATION DEPTH WITH RESPECT TO NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING REFERENCES DURING THE TRANSITION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DRAG





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities