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000
FXUS61 KPHI 110245
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
945 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE
BAY OF FUNDY THURSDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A
STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY,
SWEEPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WELL
OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY, AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY.
TWO STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO JOIN FORCES OVER THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC, AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER OUR REGION THIS EVENING. AN AREA
OF SNOW SHOWERS WAS PASSING ACROSS THE MIDDLE DELMARVA PENINSULA
AND IT SHOULD BE OFF THE COAST BY MIDNIGHT. A LIGHT COATING OF
SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF DELAWARE.

A NEGATIVE TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION IN THE MIDNIGHT TO 400 AM TIME FRAME. THE FEATURE MAY TOUCH
OFF ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES, MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT, GENERALLY UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH.

A WEST WIND WILL FAVOR THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE TEENS UP NORTH AND INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
PARTLY SUNNY AND BRISK. SCATTERED BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES,
MAINLY I-78 NWWD WHERE VERY UNSTABLE 925-700MB LAPSE RATES AND
SEMBLANCE OF A TROUGH. BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER PREDICTION TOOL
HAS SUPPORTIVE INDICATION. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TO 35 MPH 11
AM TO 3 PM. MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS A PERIOD OF WIND-DRIVEN MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR, SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS.
OTHERWISE, THE FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED, WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF TWO
SEPARATE SHORT WAVES, ONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY SEPARATE,
WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FRIDAY
NIGHT PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
SATURDAY MORNING, MUCH BELOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE TO AROUND -25C AT
KPHL! WE ALSO EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 40 MPH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING,
TAPERING DOWN 10 TO 20 MPH WITH CONTINUED GUSTINESS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO ARE FORECAST
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION, WHICH LEADS TO WIND CHILL VALUES
DANGEROUSLY COLD IN THE 10 BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO RANGE SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY,
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE
TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING NEAR THE EAST COAST, WITH THE 12Z
ECMWF NEAR THE APPALACHIANS AND THE GFS MORE OFFSHORE. IN ANY
EVENT, THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BOTH SNOW AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ONE
EXCEPTION. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AROUND KRDG, KABE AND
KTTN IN THE 0400Z TO 0800Z TIME FRAME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THOSE LOCATIONS.

THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE WEST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS 15
TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SST`S ARE AROUND 5 TO 8F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY AND
THESE WATER TEMPERATURES WARMED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE MID
JANUARY WATER TEMPERATURE TUMBLE. THE REASONING FOR THE WARMING,
EVEN IN DE BAY IS NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD BY MYSELF BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED AND I THINK BECOMES A MORE IMPORTANT PLAYER IN AIDING
MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH THESE COLD AIR ADVECTION EPISODES BY
STEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATE.

GLW CONTD. FUNNELING AND EARLIER START TO THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING FOR DE BAY SHOULD PERMIT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT VCNTY
SJS, BWINE...LWS SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AM AND 4 AM THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE ON THE STARTING TIME OF GALE GUSTS THERE IS AVERAGE.

THEREAFTER...WNW GALE GUSTS SPREAD TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF NJ
AND DE DURING THE MORNING, BECOMING MOST PERSISTENT THURSDAY
AFTN/EVE WHEN A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WE HAVE NO WIND DATA AT 44009 SO TO VERIFY, WE HAVE 44065 AND WE
USE MULTIPLE COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS ADJACENT THE WATER
INCLUDING NOS/USGS/WEATHERFLOW MESONET PLATFORMS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 6Z...FOLLOWED BY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ WINDS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND MAY MAINTAIN GALES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
ON SUNDAY, WITH SUB-SCA ON MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD
EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE,
KTTN, KPHL AND KMPO.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE
WHERE WE ARE WITH SNOW COVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS
APPEAR ON THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

SITE     2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR      RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH
----     ----------------------      --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK
CLIMATE...DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 102205
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
505 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY
OF FUNDY THURSDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY, SWEEPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WELL OUT TO SEA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY, AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. TWO STORM
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO JOIN FORCES OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC,
AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE PROBABLY PRODUCES FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED DUSTING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE 02Z-10Z TIME FRAME, AND
THOUGHT MOSTLY I-78 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD (POSSIBLY A CONNECTION TO
LAKE ERIE SNOW SHOWER PLUME) BUT THERE MAY BE A BATCH THAT CROSSES
THE DELMARVA, ENHANCED BY THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. ANY SNOW AMTS UNDER
1 INCH. WILL POST AN OVERNIGHT STS GRAPHIC WHICH SAYS LESS THAN 1
INCH BUT IN REALITY, EXPECTING LESS THAN 1/2 INCH WITHIN SCATTERED
BANDS, MOSTLY PA. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 25
MPH PROBABLY DIMINISH FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. IT MAY TEMPO CLEAR AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING AND THAN PROBABLY PARTIALLY CLEAR TOWARD DAWN
AFTER THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
PARTLY SUNNY AND BRISK. SCATTERED BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES,
MAINLY I-78 NWWD WHERE VERY UNSTABLE 925-700MB LAPSE RATES AND
SEMBLANCE OF A TROUGH. BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER PREDICTION TOOL
HAS SUPPORTIVE INDICATION. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TO 35 MPH
11 AM TO 3 PM. MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS A PERIOD OF WIND-DRIVEN MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR, SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS.
OTHERWISE, THE FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED, WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF TWO
SEPARATE SHORT WAVES, ONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY SEPARATE,
WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FRIDAY
NIGHT PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
SATURDAY MORNING, MUCH BELOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE TO AROUND -25C AT KPHL!
WE ALSO EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS TO 40 MPH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING, TAPERING DOWN 10
TO 20 MPH WITH CONTINUED GUSTINESS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO ARE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION, WHICH LEADS TO WIND CHILL VALUES DANGEROUSLY COLD IN THE
10 BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY, RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING NEAR THE EAST COAST, WITH THE 12Z ECMWF NEAR
THE APPALACHIANS AND THE GFS MORE OFFSHORE. IN ANY EVENT, THIS
WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
SNOW AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...VFR GENERALLY BKN CIGS AOA 4000 FT. WEST
WIND GUST 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS REDEVELOPING MAINLY AOA 4000 FT. THOSE
CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS
SOMETIME BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z, ESPECIALLY VCNTY KABE/KTTN/KRDG.
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY ISOLATED 35 KT. SOME BRIEF
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE
VCNTY KRDG/KABE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SST`S ARE AROUND 5 TO 8F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY AND THESE
WATER TEMPERATURES WARMED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE MID JANUARY WATER
TEMPERATURE TUMBLE. THE REASONING FOR THE WARMING, EVEN IN DE BAY
IS NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD BY MYSELF BUT IT HAS OCCURRED AND I THINK
BECOMES A MORE IMPORTANT PLAYER IN AIDING MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH
THESE COLD AIR ADVECTION EPISODES BY STEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LAPSE RATE.

GLW CONTD. FUNNELING AND EARLIER START TO THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING FOR DE BAY SHOULD PERMIT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT VCNTY
SJS, BWINE...LWS SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AM AND 4 AM THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE ON THE STARTING TIME OF GALE GUSTS THERE IS AVERAGE.

THEREAFTER...WNW GALE GUSTS SPREAD TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF NJ
AND DE DURING THE MORNING, BECOMING MOST PERSISTENT THURSDAY
AFTN/EVE WHEN A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WE HAVE NO WIND DATA AT 44009 SO TO VERIFY, WE HAVE 44065 AND WE
USE MULTIPLE COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS ADJACENT THE WATER INCLUDING
NOS/USGS/WEATHERFLOW MESONET PLATFORMS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 6Z...FOLLOWED BY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ WINDS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND MAY MAINTAIN GALES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
ON SUNDAY, WITH SUB-SCA ON MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING
OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE, KTTN, KPHL
AND KMPO.

SNOWCOVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE WHERE
WE ARE WITH SNOWCOVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS APPEAR ON
THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

SITE     2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR      RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH
----     ----------------------      --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 102205
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
505 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY
OF FUNDY THURSDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY, SWEEPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WELL OUT TO SEA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY, AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. TWO STORM
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO JOIN FORCES OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC,
AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE PROBABLY PRODUCES FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED DUSTING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE 02Z-10Z TIME FRAME, AND
THOUGHT MOSTLY I-78 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD (POSSIBLY A CONNECTION TO
LAKE ERIE SNOW SHOWER PLUME) BUT THERE MAY BE A BATCH THAT CROSSES
THE DELMARVA, ENHANCED BY THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. ANY SNOW AMTS UNDER
1 INCH. WILL POST AN OVERNIGHT STS GRAPHIC WHICH SAYS LESS THAN 1
INCH BUT IN REALITY, EXPECTING LESS THAN 1/2 INCH WITHIN SCATTERED
BANDS, MOSTLY PA. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 25
MPH PROBABLY DIMINISH FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. IT MAY TEMPO CLEAR AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING AND THAN PROBABLY PARTIALLY CLEAR TOWARD DAWN
AFTER THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
PARTLY SUNNY AND BRISK. SCATTERED BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES,
MAINLY I-78 NWWD WHERE VERY UNSTABLE 925-700MB LAPSE RATES AND
SEMBLANCE OF A TROUGH. BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER PREDICTION TOOL
HAS SUPPORTIVE INDICATION. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TO 35 MPH
11 AM TO 3 PM. MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS A PERIOD OF WIND-DRIVEN MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR, SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS.
OTHERWISE, THE FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED, WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF TWO
SEPARATE SHORT WAVES, ONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY SEPARATE,
WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FRIDAY
NIGHT PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
SATURDAY MORNING, MUCH BELOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE TO AROUND -25C AT KPHL!
WE ALSO EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS TO 40 MPH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING, TAPERING DOWN 10
TO 20 MPH WITH CONTINUED GUSTINESS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO ARE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION, WHICH LEADS TO WIND CHILL VALUES DANGEROUSLY COLD IN THE
10 BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY, RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING NEAR THE EAST COAST, WITH THE 12Z ECMWF NEAR
THE APPALACHIANS AND THE GFS MORE OFFSHORE. IN ANY EVENT, THIS
WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
SNOW AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...VFR GENERALLY BKN CIGS AOA 4000 FT. WEST
WIND GUST 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS REDEVELOPING MAINLY AOA 4000 FT. THOSE
CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS
SOMETIME BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z, ESPECIALLY VCNTY KABE/KTTN/KRDG.
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY ISOLATED 35 KT. SOME BRIEF
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE
VCNTY KRDG/KABE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SST`S ARE AROUND 5 TO 8F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY AND THESE
WATER TEMPERATURES WARMED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE MID JANUARY WATER
TEMPERATURE TUMBLE. THE REASONING FOR THE WARMING, EVEN IN DE BAY
IS NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD BY MYSELF BUT IT HAS OCCURRED AND I THINK
BECOMES A MORE IMPORTANT PLAYER IN AIDING MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH
THESE COLD AIR ADVECTION EPISODES BY STEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LAPSE RATE.

GLW CONTD. FUNNELING AND EARLIER START TO THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING FOR DE BAY SHOULD PERMIT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT VCNTY
SJS, BWINE...LWS SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AM AND 4 AM THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE ON THE STARTING TIME OF GALE GUSTS THERE IS AVERAGE.

THEREAFTER...WNW GALE GUSTS SPREAD TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF NJ
AND DE DURING THE MORNING, BECOMING MOST PERSISTENT THURSDAY
AFTN/EVE WHEN A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WE HAVE NO WIND DATA AT 44009 SO TO VERIFY, WE HAVE 44065 AND WE
USE MULTIPLE COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS ADJACENT THE WATER INCLUDING
NOS/USGS/WEATHERFLOW MESONET PLATFORMS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 6Z...FOLLOWED BY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ WINDS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND MAY MAINTAIN GALES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
ON SUNDAY, WITH SUB-SCA ON MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING
OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE, KTTN, KPHL
AND KMPO.

SNOWCOVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE WHERE
WE ARE WITH SNOWCOVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS APPEAR ON
THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

SITE     2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR      RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH
----     ----------------------      --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 102205
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
505 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY
OF FUNDY THURSDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY, SWEEPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WELL OUT TO SEA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY, AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. TWO STORM
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO JOIN FORCES OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC,
AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE PROBABLY PRODUCES FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED DUSTING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE 02Z-10Z TIME FRAME, AND
THOUGHT MOSTLY I-78 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD (POSSIBLY A CONNECTION TO
LAKE ERIE SNOW SHOWER PLUME) BUT THERE MAY BE A BATCH THAT CROSSES
THE DELMARVA, ENHANCED BY THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. ANY SNOW AMTS UNDER
1 INCH. WILL POST AN OVERNIGHT STS GRAPHIC WHICH SAYS LESS THAN 1
INCH BUT IN REALITY, EXPECTING LESS THAN 1/2 INCH WITHIN SCATTERED
BANDS, MOSTLY PA. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 25
MPH PROBABLY DIMINISH FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. IT MAY TEMPO CLEAR AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING AND THAN PROBABLY PARTIALLY CLEAR TOWARD DAWN
AFTER THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
PARTLY SUNNY AND BRISK. SCATTERED BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES,
MAINLY I-78 NWWD WHERE VERY UNSTABLE 925-700MB LAPSE RATES AND
SEMBLANCE OF A TROUGH. BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER PREDICTION TOOL
HAS SUPPORTIVE INDICATION. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TO 35 MPH
11 AM TO 3 PM. MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS A PERIOD OF WIND-DRIVEN MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR, SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS.
OTHERWISE, THE FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED, WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF TWO
SEPARATE SHORT WAVES, ONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY SEPARATE,
WITH ONLY A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FRIDAY
NIGHT PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
SATURDAY MORNING, MUCH BELOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE TO AROUND -25C AT KPHL!
WE ALSO EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS TO 40 MPH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING, TAPERING DOWN 10
TO 20 MPH WITH CONTINUED GUSTINESS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO ARE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION, WHICH LEADS TO WIND CHILL VALUES DANGEROUSLY COLD IN THE
10 BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY, RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING NEAR THE EAST COAST, WITH THE 12Z ECMWF NEAR
THE APPALACHIANS AND THE GFS MORE OFFSHORE. IN ANY EVENT, THIS
WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
SNOW AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...VFR GENERALLY BKN CIGS AOA 4000 FT. WEST
WIND GUST 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS REDEVELOPING MAINLY AOA 4000 FT. THOSE
CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS
SOMETIME BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z, ESPECIALLY VCNTY KABE/KTTN/KRDG.
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY ISOLATED 35 KT. SOME BRIEF
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE
VCNTY KRDG/KABE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SST`S ARE AROUND 5 TO 8F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY AND THESE
WATER TEMPERATURES WARMED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE MID JANUARY WATER
TEMPERATURE TUMBLE. THE REASONING FOR THE WARMING, EVEN IN DE BAY
IS NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD BY MYSELF BUT IT HAS OCCURRED AND I THINK
BECOMES A MORE IMPORTANT PLAYER IN AIDING MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH
THESE COLD AIR ADVECTION EPISODES BY STEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LAPSE RATE.

GLW CONTD. FUNNELING AND EARLIER START TO THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING FOR DE BAY SHOULD PERMIT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT VCNTY
SJS, BWINE...LWS SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AM AND 4 AM THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE ON THE STARTING TIME OF GALE GUSTS THERE IS AVERAGE.

THEREAFTER...WNW GALE GUSTS SPREAD TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF NJ
AND DE DURING THE MORNING, BECOMING MOST PERSISTENT THURSDAY
AFTN/EVE WHEN A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WE HAVE NO WIND DATA AT 44009 SO TO VERIFY, WE HAVE 44065 AND WE
USE MULTIPLE COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS ADJACENT THE WATER INCLUDING
NOS/USGS/WEATHERFLOW MESONET PLATFORMS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 6Z...FOLLOWED BY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ WINDS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND MAY MAINTAIN GALES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
ON SUNDAY, WITH SUB-SCA ON MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING
OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE, KTTN, KPHL
AND KMPO.

SNOWCOVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE WHERE
WE ARE WITH SNOWCOVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS APPEAR ON
THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

SITE     2015-16 COLDEST SO FAR      RECORD LOW FEB. 14TH
----     ----------------------      --------------------

ABE              8                        -1 IN 1979

ACY             10                        -6 IN 1979

PHL             12                        +2 IN 1979

ILG             12                        -4 IN 1979

RDG             10                        -4 IN 1983

TTN              9                         0 IN 1916

GED             13                        -7 IN 1979

MPO             -1                       -12 IN 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 102059
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY
OF FUNDY THURSDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY, SWEEPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WELL OUT TO SEA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY, AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. TWO STORM
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO JOIN FORCES OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC,
AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE PROBABLY PRODUCES FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED DUSTING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE 02Z-10Z TIME FRAME, AND
THOUGHT MOSTLY I-78 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD (POSSIBLY A CONNECTION TO
LAKE ERIE SNOW SHOWER PLUME) BUT THERE MAY BE A BATCH THAT CROSSES
THE DELMARVA, ENHANCED BY THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. ANY SNOW AMTS UNDER
1 INCH. WILL POST AN OVERNIGHT STS GRAPHIC WHICH SAYS LESS THAN 1
INCH BUT IN REALITY, EXPECTING LESS THAN 1/2 INCH WITHIN SCATTERED
BANDS, MOSTLY PA. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 25
MPH PROBABLY DIMINISH FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. IT MAY TEMPO CLEAR AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING AND THAN PROBABLY PARTIALLY CLEAR TOWARD DAWN
AFTER THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
PARTLY SUNNY AND BRISK. SCATTERED BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES,
MAINLY I-78 NWWD WHERE VERY UNSTABLE 925-700MB LAPSE RATES AND
SEMBLANCE OF A TROUGH. BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER PREDICTION TOOL
HAS SUPPORTIVE INDICATION. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TO 35 MPH
11 AM TO 3 PM. MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN IS A PERIOD OF WIND-DRIVEN MUCH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR, SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS.
OTHERWISE, THE FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED, WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF TWO
SEPERATE SHORT WAVES, ONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGELY SEPARATE, WITH
ONLY A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ARTIC COLD FRONT
SATURDAY MORNING, MUCH BELOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST. DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE TO AROUND -25C AT KPHL!
WE ALSO EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS TO 40 MPH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING, TAPERING DOWN 10
TO 20 MPH WITH CONTINUED GUSTINESS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW ZERO ARE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION, WHICH LEADS TO WIND CHILL VALUES DANGEROUSLY COLD IN THE
10 BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES MODERATE QUICKLY, RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE TRACK OF LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING NEAR THE EAST COAST, WITH THE 12Z ECMWF NEAR
THE APPALACHIANS AND THE GFS MORE OFFSHORE. IN ANY EVENT, THIS
WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH
SNOW AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...VFR GENERALLY BKN CIGS AOA 4000 FT. WEST
WIND GUST 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS REDEVELOPING MAINLY AOA 4000 FT. THOSE
CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS
SOMETIME BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z, ESPECIALLY VCNTY KABE/KTTN/KRDG.
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY ISOLATED 35 KT. SOME BRIEF
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE
VCNTY KRDG/KABE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINANTLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SST`S ARE AROUND 5 TO 8F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY AND THESE
WATER TEMPERATURES WARMED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE MID JANUARY WATER
TEMPERATURE TUMBLE. THE REASONING FOR THE WARMING, EVEN IN DE BAY
IS NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD BY MYSELF BUT IT HAS OCCURRED AND I THINK
BECOMES A MORE IMPORTANT PLAYER IN AIDING MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH
THESE COLD AIR ADVECTION EPISODES BY STEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LAPSE RATE.

GLW CONTD. FUNNELING AND EARLIER START TO THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING FOR DE BAY SHOULD PERMIT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT VCNTY
SJS, BWINE...LWS SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AM AND 4 AM THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE ON THE STARTING TIME OF GALE GUSTS THERE IS AVERAGE.

THEREAFTER...WNW GALE GUSTS SPREAD TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF NJ
AND DE DURING THE MORNING, BECOMING MOST PERSISTENT THURSDAY
AFTN/EVE WHEN A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WE HAVE NO WIND DATA AT 44009 SO TO VERIFY, WE HAVE 44065 AND WE
USE MULTIPLE COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS ADJACENT THE WATER INCLUDING
NOS/USGS/WEATHERFLOW MESONET PLATFORMS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH 6Z...FOLLOWED BY
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ WINDS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND MAY MAINTAIN GALES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED
ON SUNDAY, WITH SUB-SCA ON MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING
OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE, KTTN, KPHL
AND KMPO.

SNOWCOVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE WHERE
WE ARE WITH SNOWCOVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS APPEAR ON
THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.


2015-16 SO FAR RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...DRAG/FRANCK
MARINE...DRAG/FRANCK
CLIMATE...257





000
FXUS61 KPHI 101959
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
259 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY
OF FUNDY THURSDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. A STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY, SWEEPING LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WELL OUT TO SEA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY, AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. TWO STORM
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO JOIN FORCES OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC,
AND MOVE UP THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TONIGHT...NEGATIVE TILT SHORT WAVE PROBABLY PRODUCES FLURRIES AND
SCATTERED DUSTING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE 02Z-10Z TIME FRAME, AND
THOUGHT MOSTLY I-78 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD (POSSIBLY A CONNECTION TO
LAKE ERIE SNOW SHOWER PLUME) BUT THERE MAY BE A BATCH THAT CROSSES
THE DELMARVA, ENHANCED BY THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. ANY SNOW AMTS UNDER
1 INCH. WILL POST AN OVERNIGHT STS GRAPHIC WHICH SAYS LESS THAN 1
INCH BUT IN REALITY, EXPECTING LESS THAN 1/2 INCH WITHIN SCATTERED
BANDS, MOSTLY PA. TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. GUSTY WEST WINDS TO 25
MPH PROBABLY DIMINISH FOR A WHILE TONIGHT. IT MAY TEMPO CLEAR AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING AND THAN PROBABLY PARTIALLY CLEAR TOWARD DAWN
AFTER THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
PARTLY SUNNY AND BRISK. SCATTERED BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES,
MAINLY I-78 NWWD WHERE VERY UNSTABLE 925-700MB LAPSE RATES AND
SEMBLANCE OF A TROUGH. BTV SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER PREDICTION TOOL
HAS SUPPORTIVE INDICATION. GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS TO 35 MPH
11 AM TO 3 PM. MAX TEMPS ABOUT 10F BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.


THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION. OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG CAA WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND OFF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS
MAY REACH 30 MPH AT TIMES. ALSO LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE AIDED BY ELEVATION ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
WITH THE STRONG CAA PUSH WILL TREND TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN
MET/MAV AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO DECREASE AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.


FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TRENDS WITH BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FORM A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF US AND OFFSHORE,
SO THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL LOW NEAR US IN THIS PERIOD HAS
GREATLY DECREASED. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN
EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. BUFKIT
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING AGAIN SATURDAY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY SO WIND GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG, OVER 30 MPH AGAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C ACROSS MOST
OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SPOTS FROM -10 IN THE DELMARVA TO LOWER THAN -20 IN THE POCONOS.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MONDAY
AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. TWO CAMPS ARE CURRENTLY
PRESENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS ARE THE SPEED OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
WHICH ULTIMATELY DEVELOP THE STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES AND THE DEGREE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING MODELS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
IT. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH OVERALL TIMING ALLOWING
FOR MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO FORM OVER THE REGION AND IN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS ALLOWS FOR AS WARMER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. THE FASTER GFS AND CMC SOLUTIONS
SHIFT THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM FURTHER EAST AND ARE FASTER, TRACKING
IT UP THE EAST COAST WHICH WOULD BE A SNOWIER OUTCOME. FOR NOW
WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH, THIS BRINGS SNOW IN
MONDAY WHICH GRADUALLY MIXES AND CHANGES TO RAIN BY TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE DATA IS CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER WESTWARD
TRACK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT
EVEN SAMPLED BY OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...VFR GENERALLY BKN CIGS AOA 4000 FT. WEST
WIND GUST 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS REDEVELOPING MAINLY AOA 4000 FT. THOSE
CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS
SOMETIME BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z, ESPECIALLY VCNTY KABE/KTTN/KRDG.
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY ISOLATED 35 KT. SOME BRIEF
MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE
VCNTY KRDG/KABE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS
SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SATURDAY.


SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SST`S ARE AROUND 5 TO 8F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY AND THESE
WATER TEMPERATURES WARMED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE MID JANUARY WATER
TEMPERATURE TUMBLE. THE REASONING FOR THE WARMING, EVEN IN DE BAY
IS NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD BY MYSELF BUT IT HAS OCCURRED AND I THINK
BECOMES A MORE IMPORTANT PLAYER IN AIDING MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH
THESE COLD AIR ADVECTION EPISODES BY STEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LAPSE RATE.

GLW CONTD. FUNNELING AND EARLIER START TO THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING FOR DE BAY SHOULD PERMIT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT VCNTY
SJS, BWINE...LWS SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AM AND 4 AM THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE ON THE STARTING TIME OF GALE GUSTS THERE IS AVERAGE.

THEREAFTER...WNW GALE GUSTS SPREAD TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF NJ
AND DE DURING THE MORNING, BECOMING MOST PERSISTENT THURSDAY
AFTN/EVE WHEN A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WE HAVE NO WIND DATA AT 44009 SO TO VERIFY, WE HAVE 44065 AND WE
USE MULTIPLE COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS ADJACENT THE WATER INCLUDING
NOS/USGS/WEATHERFLOW MESONET PLATFORMS.

OUTLOOK...

SCA NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER A LULL WITH SEAS AND
WINDS FOR A GOOD PART OF FRIDAY AND MAYBE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO RAMP UP ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SEAS NEAR AND OVER FIVE FEET. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
THREAT FOR GALES SEVERAL ROUNDS OF FREEZING SPRAY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THE FIRST ROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN SEVERAL
DEGREES OF ZERO (WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY EXCEPT COLDER KMPO (NEAR -12F). THIS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M TEMPS CYCLICALLY SINCE AT LEAST THE
00Z/7 OPERATIONAL CYCLES. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR RECORD EQUALING
OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE KABE, KTTN, KPHL
AND KMPO.

SNOWCOVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE WHERE
WE ARE WITH SNOWCOVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS APPEAR ON
THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.


2015-16 SO FAR RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 30 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/FRANCK 257
NEAR TERM...DRAG 257
SHORT TERM...DRAG 257
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 257
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES 257
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...257
CLIMATE...257





000
FXUS61 KPHI 101541
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1041 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
A ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY,
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1025 AM: CATCHING UP. DECIDED TO ISSUE A STORM TOTAL SNOW AT 815
AM AND WITHDRAW SNOW PROBS DUE TO ON-GOING BRIEFLY SIGNIFICANT
MORNING SNOW SHOWER BAND. SOON WILL REINTRODUCE SNOW PROBS AND
WITHDRAW STORM TOTAL SNOW.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH DID
INCREASE WIND GUSTS ABOUT 5 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY. AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS, A GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS, RESULTING IN
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS SUCH, EXPECT HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WHILE THE POCONOS MAY NOT GET
OUT OF THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECOND, LESS DEFINED, MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND OF A SMALL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, I AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST, THE REGION WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
THROUGH THIS TIME, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT LIFT. SECONDLY, IN ADDITION TO
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION, ALSO EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING), SO MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL. WE WILL BE
LOOKING FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FROM LERIE TO POSSIBLY STREAM
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO A PORTION OF E PA AND NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.


THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION. OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG CAA WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND OFF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS
MAY REACH 30 MPH AT TIMES. ALSO LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE AIDED BY ELEVATION ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
WITH THE STRONG CAA PUSH WILL TREND TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN
MET/MAV AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO DECREASE AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.


FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TRENDS WITH BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FORM A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF US AND OFFSHORE,
SO THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL LOW NEAR US IN THIS PERIOD HAS
GREATLY DECREASED. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN
EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. BUFKIT
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING AGAIN SATURDAY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY SO WIND GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG, OVER 30 MPH AGAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C ACROSS MOST
OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SPOTS FROM -10 IN THE DELMARVA TO LOWER THAN -20 IN THE POCONOS.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MONDAY
AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. TWO CAMPS ARE CURRENTLY
PRESENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS ARE THE SPEED OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
WHICH ULTIMATELY DEVELOP THE STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES AND THE DEGREE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING MODELS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
IT. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH OVERALL TIMING ALLOWING
FOR MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO FORM OVER THE REGION AND IN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS ALLOWS FOR AS WARMER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. THE FASTER GFS AND CMC SOLUTIONS
SHIFT THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM FURTHER EAST AND ARE FASTER, TRACKING
IT UP THE EAST COAST WHICH WOULD BE A SNOWIER OUTCOME. FOR NOW
WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH, THIS BRINGS SNOW IN
MONDAY WHICH GRADUALLY MIXES AND CHANGES TO RAIN BY TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE DATA IS CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER WESTWARD
TRACK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT
EVEN SAMPLED BY OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. IFR CONDS VCNTY KMIV
AND KACY SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 1630Z. WEST WIND GUST 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE.
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SATURDAY.


SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SST`S ARE AROUND 5 TO 8F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY AND THESE
WATER TEMPERATURES WARMED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE MID JANUARY WATER
TEMPERATURE TUMBLE. THE REASONING FOR THE WARMING, EVEN IN DE BAY
IS NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD BY MYSELF BUT IT HAS OCCURRED AND I THINK
BECOMES A MORE IMPORTANT PLAYER IN AIDING MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH
THESE COLD AIR ADVECTION EPISODES BY STEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LAPSE RATE.

GLW ISSUED...FUNNELING AND EARLIER START TO THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING FOR DE BAY SHOULD PERMIT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT VCNTY
SJS, BWINE...LWS SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AM AND 4 AM THURSDAY.

THEREAFTER...WNW GALE GUSTS SPREADS TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF NJ
AND DE DURING THE MORNING, BECOMING MOST PERSISTENT THURSDAY AFTN/EVE
WHEN A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED.

WE HAVE NO WIND DATA AT 44009 SO TO VERIFY, WE DO HAVE 44065 AND WE
USE MULTIPLE COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS ADJACENT THE WATER
INCLUDING NOS/USGS/WEATHERFLOW.

OUTLOOK...

SCA NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER A LULL WITH SEAS AND
WINDS FOR A GOOD PART OF FRIDAY AND MAYBE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO RAMP UP ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SEAS NEAR AND OVER FIVE FEET. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
THREAT FOR GALES SEVERAL ROUNDS OF FREEZING SPRAY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THE FIRST ROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING BASICALLY IS DONE. WE CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR
THE NJ COAST, THOUGH ITS MARGINAL. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST EPISODE
OF COASTAL TIDAL INUNDATION RELATED FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN 3F OF ZERO
(WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY
EXCEPT COLDER KMPO. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M
TEMPS CYCLICALLY FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR
RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE
KABE, KTTN AND KPHL.

SNOWCOVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE WHERE
WE ARE WITH SNOWCOVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS APPEAR ON
THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

BE A GOOD IDEA TO CHECK ON ELDERLY/PETS DURING THE WEEKEND AND
CHECK-ENSURE HOME FUEL SUPPLIES CARRY YOU THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVOID GOING WITHOUT HEAT THIS WEEKEND. IT WONT TAKE LONG FOR WIND
DRIVEN COLD TO FREEZE WATER PIPES IN UNHEATED FACILITIES.

2015-16 SO FAR RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 25 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1042
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 1042
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES 1042
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1042
CLIMATE...1042





000
FXUS61 KPHI 101541
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1041 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
A ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY,
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1025 AM: CATCHING UP. DECIDED TO ISSUE A STORM TOTAL SNOW AT 815
AM AND WITHDRAW SNOW PROBS DUE TO ON-GOING BRIEFLY SIGNIFICANT
MORNING SNOW SHOWER BAND. SOON WILL REINTRODUCE SNOW PROBS AND
WITHDRAW STORM TOTAL SNOW.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST THOUGH DID
INCREASE WIND GUSTS ABOUT 5 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN
THE DAY. AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION BY MID DAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS, A GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS, RESULTING IN
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS SUCH, EXPECT HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WHILE THE POCONOS MAY NOT GET
OUT OF THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECOND, LESS DEFINED, MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND OF A SMALL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, I AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST, THE REGION WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
THROUGH THIS TIME, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT LIFT. SECONDLY, IN ADDITION TO
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION, ALSO EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING), SO MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL. WE WILL BE
LOOKING FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FROM LERIE TO POSSIBLY STREAM
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO A PORTION OF E PA AND NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.


THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION. OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG CAA WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND OFF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS
MAY REACH 30 MPH AT TIMES. ALSO LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE AIDED BY ELEVATION ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
WITH THE STRONG CAA PUSH WILL TREND TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN
MET/MAV AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO DECREASE AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.


FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TRENDS WITH BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FORM A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF US AND OFFSHORE,
SO THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL LOW NEAR US IN THIS PERIOD HAS
GREATLY DECREASED. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN
EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. BUFKIT
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING AGAIN SATURDAY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY SO WIND GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG, OVER 30 MPH AGAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C ACROSS MOST
OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SPOTS FROM -10 IN THE DELMARVA TO LOWER THAN -20 IN THE POCONOS.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MONDAY
AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. TWO CAMPS ARE CURRENTLY
PRESENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS ARE THE SPEED OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
WHICH ULTIMATELY DEVELOP THE STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES AND THE DEGREE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING MODELS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
IT. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH OVERALL TIMING ALLOWING
FOR MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO FORM OVER THE REGION AND IN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS ALLOWS FOR AS WARMER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. THE FASTER GFS AND CMC SOLUTIONS
SHIFT THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM FURTHER EAST AND ARE FASTER, TRACKING
IT UP THE EAST COAST WHICH WOULD BE A SNOWIER OUTCOME. FOR NOW
WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH, THIS BRINGS SNOW IN
MONDAY WHICH GRADUALLY MIXES AND CHANGES TO RAIN BY TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE DATA IS CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER WESTWARD
TRACK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT
EVEN SAMPLED BY OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. IFR CONDS VCNTY KMIV
AND KACY SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 1630Z. WEST WIND GUST 20-25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE.
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SATURDAY.


SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SST`S ARE AROUND 5 TO 8F WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY AND THESE
WATER TEMPERATURES WARMED ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM THE MID JANUARY WATER
TEMPERATURE TUMBLE. THE REASONING FOR THE WARMING, EVEN IN DE BAY
IS NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD BY MYSELF BUT IT HAS OCCURRED AND I THINK
BECOMES A MORE IMPORTANT PLAYER IN AIDING MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH
THESE COLD AIR ADVECTION EPISODES BY STEEPENING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
LAPSE RATE.

GLW ISSUED...FUNNELING AND EARLIER START TO THE DEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING FOR DE BAY SHOULD PERMIT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT VCNTY
SJS, BWINE...LWS SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 AM AND 4 AM THURSDAY.

THEREAFTER...WNW GALE GUSTS SPREADS TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF NJ
AND DE DURING THE MORNING, BECOMING MOST PERSISTENT THURSDAY AFTN/EVE
WHEN A FEW GUSTS TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED.

WE HAVE NO WIND DATA AT 44009 SO TO VERIFY, WE DO HAVE 44065 AND WE
USE MULTIPLE COASTAL WIND OBSERVATIONS ADJACENT THE WATER
INCLUDING NOS/USGS/WEATHERFLOW.

OUTLOOK...

SCA NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER A LULL WITH SEAS AND
WINDS FOR A GOOD PART OF FRIDAY AND MAYBE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO RAMP UP ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SEAS NEAR AND OVER FIVE FEET. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
THREAT FOR GALES SEVERAL ROUNDS OF FREEZING SPRAY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THE FIRST ROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING BASICALLY IS DONE. WE CONTINUE THE ADVISORY FOR
THE NJ COAST, THOUGH ITS MARGINAL. THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST EPISODE
OF COASTAL TIDAL INUNDATION RELATED FLOODING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN 3F OF ZERO
(WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY
EXCEPT COLDER KMPO. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M
TEMPS CYCLICALLY FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR
RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE
KABE, KTTN AND KPHL.

SNOWCOVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE WHERE
WE ARE WITH SNOWCOVER BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS APPEAR ON
THE WAY THE NEXT 30 HOURS.

BE A GOOD IDEA TO CHECK ON ELDERLY/PETS DURING THE WEEKEND AND
CHECK-ENSURE HOME FUEL SUPPLIES CARRY YOU THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVOID GOING WITHOUT HEAT THIS WEEKEND. IT WONT TAKE LONG FOR WIND
DRIVEN COLD TO FREEZE WATER PIPES IN UNHEATED FACILITIES.

2015-16 SO FAR RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 25 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 11 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1042
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 1042
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES 1042
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1042
CLIMATE...1042




000
FXUS61 KPHI 101307
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
807 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
A ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY,
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
755 AM: NO STORM TOTAL SNOW MAP THIS MORNING. TOO FAST A DEPARTURE.
SNOW PROBS CONTINUE AS POSTED EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER..COUNT
ON SCATTERED .1 TO .5 INCH IN NJ/DE 8A-10A. NO OTHER CHANGES AT
THIS TIME. SPS/HWO UPDATED.  NO NOW CASTS...COVERED BY SPS.

6 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH OUR
AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE OFF THE COAST BY 10 AM.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY. AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION BY MID DAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS, RESULTING IN LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS SUCH, EXPECT HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WHILE THE POCONOS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECOND, LESS DEFINED, MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND OF A SMALL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, I AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST, THE REGION WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
THROUGH THIS TIME, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT LIFT. SECONDLY, IN ADDITION TO
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION, ALSO EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING), SO MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL. WE WILL BE
LOOKING FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FROM LERIE TO POSSIBLY STREAM
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO A PORTION OF E PA AND NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.


THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION. OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG CAA WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND OFF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS
MAY REACH 30 MPH AT TIMES. ALSO LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE AIDED BY ELEVATION ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
WITH THE STRONG CAA PUSH WILL TREND TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN
MET/MAV AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO DECREASE AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.


FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TRENDS WITH BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FORM A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF US AND OFFSHORE,
SO THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL LOW NEAR US IN THIS PERIOD HAS
GREATLY DECREASED. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN
EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. BUFKIT
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING AGAIN SATURDAY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY SO WIND GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG, OVER 30 MPH AGAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C ACROSS MOST
OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SPOTS FROM -10 IN THE DELMARVA TO LOWER THAN -20 IN THE POCONOS.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MONDAY
AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. TWO CAMPS ARE CURRENTLY
PRESENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS ARE THE SPEED OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
WHICH ULTIMATELY DEVELOP THE STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES AND THE DEGREE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING MODELS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
IT. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH OVERALL TIMING ALLOWING
FOR MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO FORM OVER THE REGION AND IN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS ALLOWS FOR AS WARMER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. THE FASTER GFS AND CMC SOLUTIONS
SHIFT THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM FURTHER EAST AND ARE FASTER, TRACKING
IT UP THE EAST COAST WHICH WOULD BE A SNOWIER OUTCOME. FOR NOW
WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH, THIS BRINGS SNOW IN
MONDAY WHICH GRADUALLY MIXES AND CHANGES TO RAIN BY TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE DATA IS CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER WESTWARD
TRACK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT
EVEN SAMPLED BY OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY TODAY....IFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL END FROM W TO E ACROSS NJ/DE
BY 15Z, PER THE HRRR HOURLY UPDATES AND TRENDS. MVFR FLURRIES IN E
PA AND MARYLAND E SHORE WILL BECOME ISOLATED BY 15Z AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES ON GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.

AFTER 15Z TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 20-25
KT.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE.
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SATURDAY.


SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS FOR WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE
DELAWARE BAY TODAY. SEAS HAVE BEEN STEADILY DECREASING OVERNIGHT,
AND MAY DROP BELOW 5 FT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE GALE WATCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM NAM,
RAP, AND GFS AND THE PROBABILISTIC WIND SPEED GUIDANCE OF THE NAEFS
AND GEFS SHOW A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR GALES OVERNIGHT. IN ORDER TO GET
GALE FORCE WINDS, THERE WOULD HAVE TO BE A VERY DEEP MIXING LAYER
WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE BAY AND NEAR COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT.

MAY ISSUE GLW AT 915 AM FOR DE BAY BEGINNING 4 AM THURSDAY FOR
WNW FLOW FUNNELING.

OUTLOOK...

MAY CONVERT GLA TO GLW ALL WATERS AT 915 AM.

FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IS PRESENT FOR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR
AND JUST OVER GALE FORCE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THURSDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SEAS WILL ALSO BE AROUND FIVE FEET BEFORE
DECREASING LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. SCA NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER A LULL WITH SEAS AND WINDS FOR A GOOD
PART OF FRIDAY AND MAYBE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL LEAD TO RAMP UP ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHWEST GALE
FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEAS
NEAR AND OVER FIVE FEET. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BELOW GALE
FORCE WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR GALES
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF FREEZING SPRAY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL
WITH THE FIRST ROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A SHIFT TO OFF SHORE FLOW, AND LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, COASTAL
FLOODING CONCERNS ARE WINDING DOWN, WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS.

FIRST, FOR THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHORE, WINDS WERE SLOWER TO SHIFT
TO WESTERLY AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT,
WATER LEVELS AT SANDY HOOK AS WE APPROACH LOW TIDE ARE RUNNING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. THUS, COULD SEE ONE MORE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS MORNING.

FOR CAROLINE, TALBOT, AND QUEEN ANNE`S COUNTY IN MD, EXPECT MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THAT WILL OCCUR BY 9 AM
THIS MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

AM ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITH 3F OF ZERO
(WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY
EXCEPT COLDER KMPO. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M
TEMPS CYCLICALLY FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR
RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE
KABE, KTTN AND KPHL.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE WHERE
WE ARE AT BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS APPEAR ON THE WAY THE
NEXT 30 HOURS.

BE A GOOD IDEA TO CHECK ON ELDERLY/PETS DURING THE WEEKEND AND CHECK
FUEL SUPPLIES IN ADVANCE...BY FRIDAY. AVOID GOING WITHOUT HEAT
THIS WEEKEND. WONT TAKE LONG FOR WIND DRIVEN COLD TO FREEZE WATER
PIPES IN UNHEATED FACILITIES.



2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 25 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 808
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON 808
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 808
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 808
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...808





000
FXUS61 KPHI 101307
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
807 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
A ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY,
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
755 AM: NO STORM TOTAL SNOW MAP THIS MORNING. TOO FAST A DEPARTURE.
SNOW PROBS CONTINUE AS POSTED EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER..COUNT
ON SCATTERED .1 TO .5 INCH IN NJ/DE 8A-10A. NO OTHER CHANGES AT
THIS TIME. SPS/HWO UPDATED.  NO NOW CASTS...COVERED BY SPS.

6 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH OUR
AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE OFF THE COAST BY 10 AM.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY. AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION BY MID DAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS, RESULTING IN LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS SUCH, EXPECT HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WHILE THE POCONOS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECOND, LESS DEFINED, MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND OF A SMALL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, I AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST, THE REGION WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
THROUGH THIS TIME, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT LIFT. SECONDLY, IN ADDITION TO
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION, ALSO EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING), SO MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL. WE WILL BE
LOOKING FOR A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND FROM LERIE TO POSSIBLY STREAM
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO A PORTION OF E PA AND NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.


THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION. OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG CAA WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND OFF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS
MAY REACH 30 MPH AT TIMES. ALSO LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE AIDED BY ELEVATION ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
WITH THE STRONG CAA PUSH WILL TREND TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN
MET/MAV AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO DECREASE AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.


FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TRENDS WITH BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FORM A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF US AND OFFSHORE,
SO THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL LOW NEAR US IN THIS PERIOD HAS
GREATLY DECREASED. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN
EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. BUFKIT
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING AGAIN SATURDAY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY SO WIND GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG, OVER 30 MPH AGAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C ACROSS MOST
OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SPOTS FROM -10 IN THE DELMARVA TO LOWER THAN -20 IN THE POCONOS.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MONDAY
AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. TWO CAMPS ARE CURRENTLY
PRESENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS ARE THE SPEED OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
WHICH ULTIMATELY DEVELOP THE STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES AND THE DEGREE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING MODELS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
IT. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH OVERALL TIMING ALLOWING
FOR MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO FORM OVER THE REGION AND IN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS ALLOWS FOR AS WARMER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. THE FASTER GFS AND CMC SOLUTIONS
SHIFT THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM FURTHER EAST AND ARE FASTER, TRACKING
IT UP THE EAST COAST WHICH WOULD BE A SNOWIER OUTCOME. FOR NOW
WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH, THIS BRINGS SNOW IN
MONDAY WHICH GRADUALLY MIXES AND CHANGES TO RAIN BY TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE DATA IS CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER WESTWARD
TRACK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT
EVEN SAMPLED BY OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EARLY TODAY....IFR SNOW SHOWERS WILL END FROM W TO E ACROSS NJ/DE
BY 15Z, PER THE HRRR HOURLY UPDATES AND TRENDS. MVFR FLURRIES IN E
PA AND MARYLAND E SHORE WILL BECOME ISOLATED BY 15Z AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES ON GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS.

AFTER 15Z TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 20-25
KT.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS LATE.
WEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SATURDAY.


SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS FOR WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE
DELAWARE BAY TODAY. SEAS HAVE BEEN STEADILY DECREASING OVERNIGHT,
AND MAY DROP BELOW 5 FT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE GALE WATCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM NAM,
RAP, AND GFS AND THE PROBABILISTIC WIND SPEED GUIDANCE OF THE NAEFS
AND GEFS SHOW A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR GALES OVERNIGHT. IN ORDER TO GET
GALE FORCE WINDS, THERE WOULD HAVE TO BE A VERY DEEP MIXING LAYER
WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE BAY AND NEAR COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT.

MAY ISSUE GLW AT 915 AM FOR DE BAY BEGINNING 4 AM THURSDAY FOR
WNW FLOW FUNNELING.

OUTLOOK...

MAY CONVERT GLA TO GLW ALL WATERS AT 915 AM.

FOR NOW THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IS PRESENT FOR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR
AND JUST OVER GALE FORCE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THURSDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SEAS WILL ALSO BE AROUND FIVE FEET BEFORE
DECREASING LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. SCA NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AFTER A LULL WITH SEAS AND WINDS FOR A GOOD
PART OF FRIDAY AND MAYBE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL LEAD TO RAMP UP ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHWEST GALE
FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEAS
NEAR AND OVER FIVE FEET. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BELOW GALE
FORCE WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR GALES
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF FREEZING SPRAY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL
WITH THE FIRST ROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A SHIFT TO OFF SHORE FLOW, AND LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, COASTAL
FLOODING CONCERNS ARE WINDING DOWN, WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS.

FIRST, FOR THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHORE, WINDS WERE SLOWER TO SHIFT
TO WESTERLY AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT,
WATER LEVELS AT SANDY HOOK AS WE APPROACH LOW TIDE ARE RUNNING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. THUS, COULD SEE ONE MORE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS MORNING.

FOR CAROLINE, TALBOT, AND QUEEN ANNE`S COUNTY IN MD, EXPECT MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THAT WILL OCCUR BY 9 AM
THIS MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

AM ANTICIPATING TEMPS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA WITH 3F OF ZERO
(WIND IS THE EQUALIZER) ANYTIME FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 8 AM SUNDAY
EXCEPT COLDER KMPO. THIS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE GFS/ECMWF 2M
TEMPS CYCLICALLY FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS. THEREFORE, BEST CHANCE FOR
RECORD EQUALING OR EXCEEDING FOR VALENTINES DAY THE 14TH WOULD BE
KABE, KTTN AND KPHL.

SNOW COVER MAY HELP A BIT I-95 NORTHWESTWARD...AND WE`LL SEE WHERE
WE ARE AT BY THURSDAY EVENING. NEW DUSTINGS APPEAR ON THE WAY THE
NEXT 30 HOURS.

BE A GOOD IDEA TO CHECK ON ELDERLY/PETS DURING THE WEEKEND AND CHECK
FUEL SUPPLIES IN ADVANCE...BY FRIDAY. AVOID GOING WITHOUT HEAT
THIS WEEKEND. WONT TAKE LONG FOR WIND DRIVEN COLD TO FREEZE WATER
PIPES IN UNHEATED FACILITIES.



2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

SO, THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY 25 BELOW IN
THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 808
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON 808
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 808
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 808
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...808





000
FXUS61 KPHI 101048
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
548 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
A ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY,
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
6 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW THE CURRENT BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH OUR
AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS. BASED ON CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS, EXPECT LESS THAN ONE INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION WITH THIS BAND.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
EARLY IN THE DAY, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE ICY SPOTS ON ROADS AND
WALKWAYS AS THERE WAS STANDING WATER IN MANY LOCATIONS LAST
EVENING, AND TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW FREEZING FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
(SPS) WARNING ABOUT THIS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING COMMUTE.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY. AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION BY MID DAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS, RESULTING IN LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS SUCH, EXPECT HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WHILE THE POCONOS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A SECOND, LESS DEFINED, MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND OF A SMALL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, I AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST, THE REGION WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
THROUGH THIS TIME, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT LIFT. SECONDLY, IN ADDITION TO
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION, ALSO EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING), SO MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.


THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION. OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG CAA WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND OFF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS
MAY REACH 30 MPH AT TIMES. ALSO LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE AIDED BY ELEVATION ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
WITH THE STRONG CAA PUSH WILL TREND TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN
MET/MAV AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO DECREASE AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.


FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TRENDS WITH BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FORM A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF US AND OFFSHORE,
SO THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL LOW NEAR US IN THIS PERIOD HAS
GREATLY DECREASED. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN
EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. BUFKIT
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING AGAIN SATURDAY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY SO WIND GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG, OVER 30 MPH AGAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C ACROSS MOST
OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SPOTS FROM -10 IN THE DELMARVA TO LOWER THAN -20 IN THE POCONOS.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MONDAY
AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. TWO CAMPS ARE CURRENTLY
PRESENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS ARE THE SPEED OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
WHICH ULTIMATELY DEVELOP THE STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES AND THE DEGREE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING MODELS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
IT. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH OVERALL TIMING ALLOWING
FOR MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO FORM OVER THE REGION AND IN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS ALLOWS FOR AS WARMER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. THE FASTER GFS AND CMC SOLUTIONS
SHIFT THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM FURTHER EAST AND ARE FASTER, TRACKING
IT UP THE EAST COAST WHICH WOULD BE A SNOWIER OUTCOME. FOR NOW
WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH, THIS BRINGS SNOW IN
MONDAY WHICH GRADUALLY MIXES AND CHANGES TO RAIN BY TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE DATA IS CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER WESTWARD
TRACK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT
EVEN SAMPLED BY OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF
SITES (KPHL, KTTN, KPNE, AND KILG) AND KMIV THROUGH 14Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SNOW, BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR BEHIND THESE SNOW
SHOWERS.

BY 15Z, ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE BACK TO VFR. THOUGH WE COULD SEE
PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CEILINGS (5000 TO 8000 FT AGL) THROUGH THE
DAY AND EVEN TONIGHT, DO NOT EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP BACK TO MVFR
ONCE THEY IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING.

WESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 14 TO 00Z, BUT
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE WITH SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SATURDAY.


SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS FOR WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE
DELAWARE BAY TODAY. SEAS HAVE BEEN STEADILY DECREASING OVERNIGHT,
AND MAY DROP BELOW 5 FT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE GALE WATCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM NAM,
RAP, AND GFS AND THE PROBABILISTIC WIND SPEED GUIDANCE OF THE NAEFS
AND GEFS SHOW A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR GALES OVERNIGHT. IN ORDER TO GET
GALE FORCE WINDS, THERE WOULD HAVE TO BE A VERY DEEP MIXING LAYER
WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE BAY AND NEAR COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY EVENING. FAIRLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IS PRESENT FOR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR AND JUST
OVER GALE FORCE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THURSDAY AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. SEAS WILL ALSO BE AROUND FIVE FEET BEFORE DECREASING
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. SCA NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. AFTER A LULL WITH SEAS AND WINDS FOR A GOOD PART OF FRIDAY
AND MAYBE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
RAMP UP ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEAS NEAR AND OVER
FIVE FEET. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE WILL
LINGER INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR GALES SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF FREEZING SPRAY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL WITH THE
FIRST ROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A SHIFT TO OFF SHORE FLOW, AND LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, COASTAL
FLOODING CONCERNS ARE WINDING DOWN, WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS.

FIRST, FOR THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHORE, WINDS WERE SLOWER TO SHIFT
TO WESTERLY AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT,
WATER LEVELS AT SANDY HOOK AS WE APPROACH LOW TIDE ARE RUNNING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. THUS, COULD SEE ONE MORE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS MORNING.

FOR CAROLINE, TALBOT, AND QUEEN ANNE`S COUNTY IN MD, EXPECT MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THAT WILL OCCUR BY 9 AM
THIS MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 100827
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
327 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
A ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY,
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK UP THE EAST COAST ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

EARLY IN THE DAY, THE MAIN STORY WILL BE ICY SPOTS ON ROADS AND
WALKWAYS AS THERE WAS STANDING WATER IN MANY LOCATIONS LAST EVENING,
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPS)
WARNING ABOUT THIS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING COMMUTE.

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY. AS A RESULT, WE SHOULD SEE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MOVE OUT OF
THE REGION BY MID DAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS, RESULTING IN LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS SUCH, EXPECT HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE
30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION, WHILE THE POCONOS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...

A SECOND, LESS DEFINED, MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED THE TREND OF A SMALL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. HOWEVER, I AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR TWO REASONS. FIRST, THE REGION WILL
GENERALLY BE UNDER THE LEFT REAR QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
THROUGH THIS TIME, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT LIFT. SECONDLY, IN ADDITION TO
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION, ALSO EXPECT CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER (SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING), SO MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE EXTENDED WILL LIKELY FEATURE BOTH THE PROSPECTS FOR THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON CENTERED ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.


THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE REGION. OUR REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG CAA WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND OFF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BUFKIT ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STRONG WIND GUSTS
MAY REACH 30 MPH AT TIMES. ALSO LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO
STEEPEN DURING THE DAY WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES DURING THE DAY WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE AIDED BY ELEVATION ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ.
WITH THE STRONG CAA PUSH WILL TREND TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN
MET/MAV AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO DECREASE AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.


FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TRENDS WITH BOTH THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FORM A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST OF US AND OFFSHORE,
SO THE POSSIBILITY OF A COASTAL LOW NEAR US IN THIS PERIOD HAS
GREATLY DECREASED. IT WILL BE A VERY COLD AND WINDY PERIOD WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN
EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. BUFKIT
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXING AGAIN SATURDAY SIMILAR TO
THURSDAY SO WIND GUSTS COULD BE QUITE STRONG, OVER 30 MPH AGAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE BELOW -25C ACROSS MOST
OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL CONTINUE TO
NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. NORTHWEST WINDS ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS SATURDAY WILL
LIKELY TO BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SPOTS FROM -10 IN THE DELMARVA TO LOWER THAN -20 IN THE POCONOS.

PRESIDENTS DAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST OF THE REGION AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY MODELED TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES MONDAY
AND TRACK UP THE EAST COAST TUESDAY. TWO CAMPS ARE CURRENTLY
PRESENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS ARE THE SPEED OF VARIOUS SHORTWAVES
WHICH ULTIMATELY DEVELOP THE STORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES AND THE DEGREE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING MODELS DEVELOP AHEAD OF
IT. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER WITH OVERALL TIMING ALLOWING
FOR MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO FORM OVER THE REGION AND IN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS ALLOWS FOR AS WARMER AND FURTHER WEST TRACK WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN MAINLY A RAIN EVENT. THE FASTER GFS AND CMC SOLUTIONS
SHIFT THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM FURTHER EAST AND ARE FASTER, TRACKING
IT UP THE EAST COAST WHICH WOULD BE A SNOWIER OUTCOME. FOR NOW
WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH, THIS BRINGS SNOW IN
MONDAY WHICH GRADUALLY MIXES AND CHANGES TO RAIN BY TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE DATA IS CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE WARMER WESTWARD
TRACK. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT
EVEN SAMPLED BY OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE ARE EXPECTING CEILINGS TO RISE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 12Z OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THOUGH WE COULD SEE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL
CEILINGS (5000 TO 8000 FT AGL) THROUGH THE DAY AND EVEN TONIGHT, DO
NOT EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP BACK TO MVFR ONCE THEY IMPROVE LATER
THIS MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBILE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY FROM
15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON SATURDAY.


SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA CONDITIONS FOR WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE
DELAWARE BAY TODAY. SEAS HAVE BEEN STEADILY DECREASING OVERNIGHT,
AND MAY DROP BELOW 5 FT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

TONIGHT...HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
DELAYED THE START TIME OF THE GALE WATCH. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM NAM,
RAP, AND GFS AND THE PROBABILISTIC WIND SPEED GUIDANCE OF THE NAEFS
AND GEFS SHOW A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR GALES OVERNIGHT. IN ORDER TO GET
GALE FORCE WINDS, THERE WOULD HAVE TO BE A VERY DEEP MIXING LAYER
WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

OUTLOOK...

THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY EVENING. FAIRLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IS PRESENT FOR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR AND JUST
OVER GALE FORCE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THURSDAY AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. SEAS WILL ALSO BE AROUND FIVE FEET BEFORE DECREASING
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. SCA NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. AFTER A LULL WITH SEAS AND WINDS FOR A GOOD PART OF FRIDAY
AND MAYBE INTO EARLY SATURDAY AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO
RAMP UP ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHWEST GALE FORCE GUSTS
ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEAS NEAR AND OVER
FIVE FEET. STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE WILL
LINGER INTO SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR GALES SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF FREEZING SPRAY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBILE AS WELL WITH THE
FIRST ROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THIS WEEKEND.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

WITH A SHIFT TO OFF SHORE FLOW, AND LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, COASTAL
FLOODING CONCERNS ARE WINDING DOWN, WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS.

FIRST, FOR THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHORE, WINDS WERE SLOWER TO SHIFT
TO WESTERLY AS COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT,
WATER LEVELS AT SANDY HOOK AS WE APPROACH LOW TIDE ARE RUNNING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE. THUS, COULD SEE ONE MORE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE WITH MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS MORNING.

FOR CAROLINE, TALBOT, AND QUEEN ANNE`S COUNTY IN MD, EXPECT MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THAT WILL OCCUR BY 9 AM
THIS MORNING.



&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 100532
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1232 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ONE SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN BANDS OF
MORE ORGANIZED SNOW, HOWEVER THESE ARE TENDING TO WEAKEN AS THEY
LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE EARLIER
CONVERGENCE THAT HELPED TO STRENGTHEN A BAND OF SNOW HAS WEAKENED AS
IT GRADUALLY LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE A DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE OVERALL REFLECTIVITIES. HOWEVER, DESPITE LESSENING
RADAR REFLECTIVITY FARTHER WEST THERE IS STILL LIGHT SNOW FALLING.
OVERALL, THE TREND APPEARS TO CONTINUE TO BE MORE OF A SNOW SHOWER
VARIETY INSTEAD OF A WIDESPREAD SNOW. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST WAS
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF REAL ORGANIZATION, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOWER ACROSS
MANY AREAS AND NOT A LOT OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT, THE ADVISORIES AND WARNING HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. BASED
ON SOME REPORTS, MUCH OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN ON NON-
ROADWAY SURFACES WITH THE ROADS THEMSELVES BEING MOSTLY WET. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW HAS FALLEN IN PORTIONS OF CHESTER TO BERKS COUNTIES
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS ONE HEADS TO THE EAST AND NORTH FROM THERE.
THE UPDATED SNOWFALL GRAPHIC WILL DEPICT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT WHICH RANGES FROM A COATING UP TO 2 INCHES /HIGHEST ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES/. OF COURSE IN SITUATIONS LIKE THESE, LOCALLY
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ARRIVING TOWARD
MORNING, AND THIS COULD DEVELOP SOME SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN AREAS. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS WERE
ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE
WAS BLENDED IN. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH TO START THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AT RUSH HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, LOCALLY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR ON
UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...IF I HAD TO CONVEY JUST ONE THING DURING THIS PERIOD
IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE A TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.
LOOKS LIKE TWO PIECES OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE FIRST PIECE ARRIVING
THIS THURSDAY. A TROF OR COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING THE WAY FOR THE COLD AIR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD LATER ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT`S
BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS
FORECAST...H8 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -25 TO 30 DEGREE C RANGE.
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. BECAUSE OF THIS (WILL STILL
HAVE A GRADIENT), WINDS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. BY MONDAY
(PRESIDENTS DAY), THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY, THE SAME FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE
PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.

TEMPERATURES...TO BE ABLE TO GET SOME PERSPECTIVE, NORMALS FOR
KPHL ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW 40S AND MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THAT SAID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE`LL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND
REBOUND FURTHER ON TUESDAY (ABOVE NORMAL). TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE FORECAST AREA
FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE THE RULE, BUT ON SUNDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW TO FIVE ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE COMMON.

PRECIPITATION...NOT SEEING ANY LARGE SCALE EVENTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SMALL POPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT ON TUESDAY.

WIND AND WIND CHILLS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL RELAX ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAMP BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ON SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE, COLDEST NORTH AND WEST.

IMPACTS...IMPACTS WILL BE TIED MORE TO TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL CAN
GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. BITTERLY COLD AIR CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT TIMES.
THE VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR/MVFR AT TIMES DUE TO
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A MORE WIDESPREAD
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS ANTICIPATED TOWARD 12Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE, BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST WITH
SOME INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KNOTS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CEILINGS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS, BRIEFLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...10 KNOTS OF LESS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. PER
BUFKIT, THE TRANSFER IN THE MIXED LAYER IS STRONG. FREEZING SPRAY
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL THE TROUGH
PASSES AND BRINGS A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY WIND.

THE WIND SHIFT HAD ALREADY ARRIVED IN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE BY MID
EVENING. IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ACROSS DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY UP TO ABOUT LONG BEACH ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHIFT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE LATE TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS ISSUED FOR MIDDLESEX COUNTY AND
MONMOUTH COUNTY WAS DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY BASED ON THIS
EVENING`S TIDAL TRENDS.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE COASTAL FLOODING MAY WORK ITS WAY UP TO NEW
CASTLE COUNTY AND SALEM COUNTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE SO AN
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE UNTIL 200 AM. AS THE WIND SHIFT
TAKES HOLD AND WATER BEGINS TO BE PUSHED AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PART
OF OUR COAST, POSITIVE DEPARTURES SHOULD COME DOWN ENOUGH TO SPARE
THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER FROM ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING LATE
TONIGHT.

WE THINK THAT THIS ROUND OF ADVISORIES SHOULD BE THE LAST FOR
COASTAL AREAS OF DELAWARE, DELAWARE BAY AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY. HOWEVER, THE FACT THAT THE WIND WILL NOT TURN TO THE WEST
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE GIVES
US CONCERN THAT THE WATER WILL HOLD THERE FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE. THUS, HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH, AND OCEAN COUNTIES FOR THE HIGH TIDE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE REMAINED A FAIR AMOUNT OF WATER BOTTLED UP IN CHESAPEAKE BAY
THIS EVENING. WHILE THE WESTERLY WIND HAS REACHED THE BAY AND IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRAIN, WE THINK THAT IT WILL NOT BE IN TIME TO
PREVENT ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE UPPER EASTERN
SHORE FROM THE CHOPTANK RIVER UP TO KENT ISLAND. AS A RESULT, WE
HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES OF
CAROLINE, TALBOT AND QUEEN ANNE`S AND IT COVERS THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE. WE SHOULD NOT NEED TO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY
FARTHER NORTH TO KENT COUNTY AND CECIL COUNTY BASED ON THIS
EVENING`S TIDAL TRENDS IN THOSE TWO COUNTIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON/KRUZDLO
MARINE...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 100532
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1232 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ONE SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN BANDS OF
MORE ORGANIZED SNOW, HOWEVER THESE ARE TENDING TO WEAKEN AS THEY
LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE EARLIER
CONVERGENCE THAT HELPED TO STRENGTHEN A BAND OF SNOW HAS WEAKENED AS
IT GRADUALLY LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE A DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE OVERALL REFLECTIVITIES. HOWEVER, DESPITE LESSENING
RADAR REFLECTIVITY FARTHER WEST THERE IS STILL LIGHT SNOW FALLING.
OVERALL, THE TREND APPEARS TO CONTINUE TO BE MORE OF A SNOW SHOWER
VARIETY INSTEAD OF A WIDESPREAD SNOW. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST WAS
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF REAL ORGANIZATION, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOWER ACROSS
MANY AREAS AND NOT A LOT OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT, THE ADVISORIES AND WARNING HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. BASED
ON SOME REPORTS, MUCH OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN ON NON-
ROADWAY SURFACES WITH THE ROADS THEMSELVES BEING MOSTLY WET. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW HAS FALLEN IN PORTIONS OF CHESTER TO BERKS COUNTIES
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS ONE HEADS TO THE EAST AND NORTH FROM THERE.
THE UPDATED SNOWFALL GRAPHIC WILL DEPICT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT WHICH RANGES FROM A COATING UP TO 2 INCHES /HIGHEST ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES/. OF COURSE IN SITUATIONS LIKE THESE, LOCALLY
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ARRIVING TOWARD
MORNING, AND THIS COULD DEVELOP SOME SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN AREAS. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS WERE
ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE
WAS BLENDED IN. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH TO START THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AT RUSH HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, LOCALLY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR ON
UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...IF I HAD TO CONVEY JUST ONE THING DURING THIS PERIOD
IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE A TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.
LOOKS LIKE TWO PIECES OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE FIRST PIECE ARRIVING
THIS THURSDAY. A TROF OR COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING THE WAY FOR THE COLD AIR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD LATER ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT`S
BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS
FORECAST...H8 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -25 TO 30 DEGREE C RANGE.
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. BECAUSE OF THIS (WILL STILL
HAVE A GRADIENT), WINDS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. BY MONDAY
(PRESIDENTS DAY), THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY, THE SAME FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE
PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.

TEMPERATURES...TO BE ABLE TO GET SOME PERSPECTIVE, NORMALS FOR
KPHL ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW 40S AND MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THAT SAID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE`LL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND
REBOUND FURTHER ON TUESDAY (ABOVE NORMAL). TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE FORECAST AREA
FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE THE RULE, BUT ON SUNDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW TO FIVE ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE COMMON.

PRECIPITATION...NOT SEEING ANY LARGE SCALE EVENTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SMALL POPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT ON TUESDAY.

WIND AND WIND CHILLS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL RELAX ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAMP BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ON SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE, COLDEST NORTH AND WEST.

IMPACTS...IMPACTS WILL BE TIED MORE TO TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL CAN
GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. BITTERLY COLD AIR CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT TIMES.
THE VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR/MVFR AT TIMES DUE TO
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A MORE WIDESPREAD
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS ANTICIPATED TOWARD 12Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE, BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST WITH
SOME INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KNOTS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CEILINGS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS, BRIEFLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...10 KNOTS OF LESS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. PER
BUFKIT, THE TRANSFER IN THE MIXED LAYER IS STRONG. FREEZING SPRAY
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL THE TROUGH
PASSES AND BRINGS A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY WIND.

THE WIND SHIFT HAD ALREADY ARRIVED IN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE BY MID
EVENING. IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ACROSS DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY UP TO ABOUT LONG BEACH ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHIFT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE LATE TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS ISSUED FOR MIDDLESEX COUNTY AND
MONMOUTH COUNTY WAS DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY BASED ON THIS
EVENING`S TIDAL TRENDS.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE COASTAL FLOODING MAY WORK ITS WAY UP TO NEW
CASTLE COUNTY AND SALEM COUNTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE SO AN
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE UNTIL 200 AM. AS THE WIND SHIFT
TAKES HOLD AND WATER BEGINS TO BE PUSHED AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PART
OF OUR COAST, POSITIVE DEPARTURES SHOULD COME DOWN ENOUGH TO SPARE
THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER FROM ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING LATE
TONIGHT.

WE THINK THAT THIS ROUND OF ADVISORIES SHOULD BE THE LAST FOR
COASTAL AREAS OF DELAWARE, DELAWARE BAY AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY. HOWEVER, THE FACT THAT THE WIND WILL NOT TURN TO THE WEST
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE GIVES
US CONCERN THAT THE WATER WILL HOLD THERE FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE. THUS, HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH, AND OCEAN COUNTIES FOR THE HIGH TIDE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE REMAINED A FAIR AMOUNT OF WATER BOTTLED UP IN CHESAPEAKE BAY
THIS EVENING. WHILE THE WESTERLY WIND HAS REACHED THE BAY AND IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRAIN, WE THINK THAT IT WILL NOT BE IN TIME TO
PREVENT ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE UPPER EASTERN
SHORE FROM THE CHOPTANK RIVER UP TO KENT ISLAND. AS A RESULT, WE
HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES OF
CAROLINE, TALBOT AND QUEEN ANNE`S AND IT COVERS THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE. WE SHOULD NOT NEED TO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY
FARTHER NORTH TO KENT COUNTY AND CECIL COUNTY BASED ON THIS
EVENING`S TIDAL TRENDS IN THOSE TWO COUNTIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     DEZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON/KRUZDLO
MARINE...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 100239
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ONE SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN BANDS OF
MORE ORGANIZED SNOW, HOWEVER THESE ARE TENDING TO WEAKEN AS THEY
LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE EARLIER
CONVERGENCE THAT HELPED TO STRENGTHEN A BAND OF SNOW HAS WEAKENED AS
IT GRADUALLY LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE A DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE OVERALL REFLECTIVITIES. HOWEVER, DESPITE LESSENING
RADAR REFLECTIVITY FARTHER WEST THERE IS STILL LIGHT SNOW FALLING.
OVERALL, THE TREND APPEARS TO CONTINUE TO BE MORE OF A SNOW SHOWER
VARIETY INSTEAD OF A WIDESPREAD SNOW. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST WAS
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF REAL ORGANIZATION, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOWER ACROSS
MANY AREAS AND NOT A LOT OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT, THE ADVISORIES AND WARNING HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. BASED
ON SOME REPORTS, MUCH OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN ON NON-
ROADWAY SURFACES WITH THE ROADS THEMSELVES BEING MOSTLY WET. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW HAS FALLEN IN PORTIONS OF CHESTER TO BERKS COUNTIES
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS ONE HEADS TO THE EAST AND NORTH FROM THERE.
THE UPDATED SNOWFALL GRAPHIC WILL DEPICT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT WHICH RANGES FROM A COATING UP TO 2 INCHES /HIGHEST ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES/. OF COURSE IN SITUATIONS LIKE THESE, LOCALLY
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ARRIVING TOWARD
MORNING, AND THIS COULD DEVELOP SOME SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN AREAS. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS WERE
ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE
WAS BLENDED IN. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH TO START THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AT RUSH HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, LOCALLY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR ON
UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...IF I HAD TO CONVEY JUST ONE THING DURING THIS PERIOD
IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE A TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.
LOOKS LIKE TWO PIECES OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE FIRST PIECE ARRIVING
THIS THURSDAY. A TROF OR COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING THE WAY FOR THE COLD AIR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD LATER ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT`S
BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS
FORECAST...H8 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -25 TO 30 DEGREE C RANGE.
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. BECAUSE OF THIS (WILL STILL
HAVE A GRADIENT), WINDS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. BY MONDAY
(PRESIDENTS DAY), THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY, THE SAME FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE
PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.

TEMPERATURES...TO BE ABLE TO GET SOME PERSPECTIVE, NORMALS FOR
KPHL ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW 40S AND MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THAT SAID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE`LL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND
REBOUND FURTHER ON TUESDAY (ABOVE NORMAL). TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE FORECAST AREA
FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE THE RULE, BUT ON SUNDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW TO FIVE ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE COMMON.

PRECIPITATION...NOT SEEING ANY LARGE SCALE EVENTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SMALL POPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT ON TUESDAY.

WIND AND WIND CHILLS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL RELAX ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAMP BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ON SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE, COLDEST NORTH AND WEST.

IMPACTS...IMPACTS WILL BE TIED MORE TO TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL CAN
GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. BITTERLY COLD AIR CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT TIMES.
THE VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR/MVFR AT TIMES DUE TO
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. A MORE WIDESPREAD
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS ANTICIPATED TOWARD 12Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE, BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST WITH
SOME INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KNOTS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CEILINGS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS, BRIEFLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...10 KNOTS OF LESS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. PER
BUFKIT, THE TRANSFER IN THE MIXED LAYER IS STRONG. FREEZING SPRAY
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL THE TROUGH
PASSES AND BRINGS A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY WIND.

THE WIND SHIFT HAD ALREADY ARRIVED IN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE BY MID
EVENING. IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ACROSS DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY UP TO ABOUT LONG BEACH ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHIFT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE LATE TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS ISSUED FOR MIDDLESEX COUNTY AND
MONMOUTH COUNTY WAS DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY BASED ON THIS
EVENING`S TIDAL TRENDS.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE COASTAL FLOODING MAY WORK ITS WAY UP TO NEW
CASTLE COUNTY AND SALEM COUNTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE SO AN
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE UNTIL 200 AM. AS THE WIND SHIFT
TAKES HOLD AND WATER BEGINS TO BE PUSHED AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PART
OF OUR COAST, POSITIVE DEPARTURES SHOULD COME DOWN ENOUGH TO SPARE
THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER FROM ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING LATE
TONIGHT.

WE THINK THAT THIS ROUND OF ADVISORIES SHOULD BE THE LAST FOR
COASTAL AREAS OF DELAWARE, DELAWARE BAY AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY. HOWEVER, THE FACT THAT THE WIND WILL NOT TURN TO THE WEST
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE GIVES
US SOME CONCERN THAT THE WATER WILL HOLD THERE FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. WE WILL REASSESS THE POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES
AROUND MIDNIGHT TO DECIDE WHETHER ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS
APPROPRIATE FOR AREAS NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE REMAINED A FAIR AMOUNT OF WATER BOTTLED UP IN CHESAPEAKE BAY
THIS EVENING. WHILE THE WESTERLY WIND HAS REACHED THE BAY AND IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRAIN, WE THINK THAT IT WILL NOT BE IN TIME TO
PREVENT ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE UPPER EASTERN
SHORE FROM THE CHOPTANK RIVER UP TO KENT ISLAND. AS A RESULT, WE
HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES OF
CAROLINE, TALBOT AND QUEEN ANNE`S AND IT COVERS THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE. WE SHOULD NOT NEED TO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY
FARTHER NORTH TO KENT COUNTY AND CECIL COUNTY BASED ON THIS
EVENING`S TIDAL TRENDS IN THOSE TWO COUNTIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-
     012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GORSE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 100239
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ONE SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN BANDS OF
MORE ORGANIZED SNOW, HOWEVER THESE ARE TENDING TO WEAKEN AS THEY
LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE EARLIER
CONVERGENCE THAT HELPED TO STRENGTHEN A BAND OF SNOW HAS WEAKENED AS
IT GRADUALLY LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE A DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE OVERALL REFLECTIVITIES. HOWEVER, DESPITE LESSENING
RADAR REFLECTIVITY FARTHER WEST THERE IS STILL LIGHT SNOW FALLING.
OVERALL, THE TREND APPEARS TO CONTINUE TO BE MORE OF A SNOW SHOWER
VARIETY INSTEAD OF A WIDESPREAD SNOW. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST WAS
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF REAL ORGANIZATION, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOWER ACROSS
MANY AREAS AND NOT A LOT OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT, THE ADVISORIES AND WARNING HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. BASED
ON SOME REPORTS, MUCH OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN ON NON-
ROADWAY SURFACES WITH THE ROADS THEMSELVES BEING MOSTLY WET. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW HAS FALLEN IN PORTIONS OF CHESTER TO BERKS COUNTIES
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS ONE HEADS TO THE EAST AND NORTH FROM THERE.
THE UPDATED SNOWFALL GRAPHIC WILL DEPICT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT WHICH RANGES FROM A COATING UP TO 2 INCHES /HIGHEST ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES/. OF COURSE IN SITUATIONS LIKE THESE, LOCALLY
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ARRIVING TOWARD
MORNING, AND THIS COULD DEVELOP SOME SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN AREAS. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS WERE
ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE
WAS BLENDED IN. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH TO START THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AT RUSH HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, LOCALLY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR ON
UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...IF I HAD TO CONVEY JUST ONE THING DURING THIS PERIOD
IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE A TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.
LOOKS LIKE TWO PIECES OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE FIRST PIECE ARRIVING
THIS THURSDAY. A TROF OR COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING THE WAY FOR THE COLD AIR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD LATER ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT`S
BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS
FORECAST...H8 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -25 TO 30 DEGREE C RANGE.
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. BECAUSE OF THIS (WILL STILL
HAVE A GRADIENT), WINDS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. BY MONDAY
(PRESIDENTS DAY), THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY, THE SAME FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE
PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.

TEMPERATURES...TO BE ABLE TO GET SOME PERSPECTIVE, NORMALS FOR
KPHL ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW 40S AND MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THAT SAID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE`LL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND
REBOUND FURTHER ON TUESDAY (ABOVE NORMAL). TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE FORECAST AREA
FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE THE RULE, BUT ON SUNDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW TO FIVE ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE COMMON.

PRECIPITATION...NOT SEEING ANY LARGE SCALE EVENTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SMALL POPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT ON TUESDAY.

WIND AND WIND CHILLS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL RELAX ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAMP BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ON SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE, COLDEST NORTH AND WEST.

IMPACTS...IMPACTS WILL BE TIED MORE TO TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL CAN
GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. BITTERLY COLD AIR CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT TIMES.
THE VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR/MVFR AT TIMES DUE TO
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. A MORE WIDESPREAD
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS ANTICIPATED TOWARD 12Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE, BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST WITH
SOME INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KNOTS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CEILINGS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS, BRIEFLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...10 KNOTS OF LESS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. PER
BUFKIT, THE TRANSFER IN THE MIXED LAYER IS STRONG. FREEZING SPRAY
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL THE TROUGH
PASSES AND BRINGS A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY WIND.

THE WIND SHIFT HAD ALREADY ARRIVED IN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE BY MID
EVENING. IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ACROSS DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY UP TO ABOUT LONG BEACH ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHIFT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE LATE TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS ISSUED FOR MIDDLESEX COUNTY AND
MONMOUTH COUNTY WAS DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY BASED ON THIS
EVENING`S TIDAL TRENDS.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE COASTAL FLOODING MAY WORK ITS WAY UP TO NEW
CASTLE COUNTY AND SALEM COUNTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE SO AN
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE UNTIL 200 AM. AS THE WIND SHIFT
TAKES HOLD AND WATER BEGINS TO BE PUSHED AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PART
OF OUR COAST, POSITIVE DEPARTURES SHOULD COME DOWN ENOUGH TO SPARE
THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER FROM ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING LATE
TONIGHT.

WE THINK THAT THIS ROUND OF ADVISORIES SHOULD BE THE LAST FOR
COASTAL AREAS OF DELAWARE, DELAWARE BAY AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY. HOWEVER, THE FACT THAT THE WIND WILL NOT TURN TO THE WEST
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE GIVES
US SOME CONCERN THAT THE WATER WILL HOLD THERE FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. WE WILL REASSESS THE POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES
AROUND MIDNIGHT TO DECIDE WHETHER ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS
APPROPRIATE FOR AREAS NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE REMAINED A FAIR AMOUNT OF WATER BOTTLED UP IN CHESAPEAKE BAY
THIS EVENING. WHILE THE WESTERLY WIND HAS REACHED THE BAY AND IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRAIN, WE THINK THAT IT WILL NOT BE IN TIME TO
PREVENT ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE UPPER EASTERN
SHORE FROM THE CHOPTANK RIVER UP TO KENT ISLAND. AS A RESULT, WE
HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES OF
CAROLINE, TALBOT AND QUEEN ANNE`S AND IT COVERS THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE. WE SHOULD NOT NEED TO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY
FARTHER NORTH TO KENT COUNTY AND CECIL COUNTY BASED ON THIS
EVENING`S TIDAL TRENDS IN THOSE TWO COUNTIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-
     012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GORSE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 100239
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ONE SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN BANDS OF
MORE ORGANIZED SNOW, HOWEVER THESE ARE TENDING TO WEAKEN AS THEY
LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE EARLIER
CONVERGENCE THAT HELPED TO STRENGTHEN A BAND OF SNOW HAS WEAKENED AS
IT GRADUALLY LIFTED NORTHEASTWARD AND WE CONTINUE TO SEE A DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE OVERALL REFLECTIVITIES. HOWEVER, DESPITE LESSENING
RADAR REFLECTIVITY FARTHER WEST THERE IS STILL LIGHT SNOW FALLING.
OVERALL, THE TREND APPEARS TO CONTINUE TO BE MORE OF A SNOW SHOWER
VARIETY INSTEAD OF A WIDESPREAD SNOW. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST WAS
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

GIVEN THE LACK OF REAL ORGANIZATION, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOWER ACROSS
MANY AREAS AND NOT A LOT OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT, THE ADVISORIES AND WARNING HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. BASED
ON SOME REPORTS, MUCH OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN ON NON-
ROADWAY SURFACES WITH THE ROADS THEMSELVES BEING MOSTLY WET. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW HAS FALLEN IN PORTIONS OF CHESTER TO BERKS COUNTIES
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS ONE HEADS TO THE EAST AND NORTH FROM THERE.
THE UPDATED SNOWFALL GRAPHIC WILL DEPICT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
OVERNIGHT WHICH RANGES FROM A COATING UP TO 2 INCHES /HIGHEST ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST ZONES/. OF COURSE IN SITUATIONS LIKE THESE, LOCALLY
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ARRIVING TOWARD
MORNING, AND THIS COULD DEVELOP SOME SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN AREAS. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS WERE
ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE
WAS BLENDED IN. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH TO START THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AT RUSH HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, LOCALLY SLIPPERY CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR ON
UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...IF I HAD TO CONVEY JUST ONE THING DURING THIS PERIOD
IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE A TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.
LOOKS LIKE TWO PIECES OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE FIRST PIECE ARRIVING
THIS THURSDAY. A TROF OR COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING THE WAY FOR THE COLD AIR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD LATER ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT`S
BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS
FORECAST...H8 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -25 TO 30 DEGREE C RANGE.
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. BECAUSE OF THIS (WILL STILL
HAVE A GRADIENT), WINDS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. BY MONDAY
(PRESIDENTS DAY), THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY, THE SAME FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE
PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.

TEMPERATURES...TO BE ABLE TO GET SOME PERSPECTIVE, NORMALS FOR
KPHL ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW 40S AND MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THAT SAID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE`LL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND
REBOUND FURTHER ON TUESDAY (ABOVE NORMAL). TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE FORECAST AREA
FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE THE RULE, BUT ON SUNDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW TO FIVE ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE COMMON.

PRECIPITATION...NOT SEEING ANY LARGE SCALE EVENTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SMALL POPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT ON TUESDAY.

WIND AND WIND CHILLS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL RELAX ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAMP BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ON SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE, COLDEST NORTH AND WEST.

IMPACTS...IMPACTS WILL BE TIED MORE TO TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL CAN
GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. BITTERLY COLD AIR CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT TIMES.
THE VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR/MVFR AT TIMES DUE TO
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. A MORE WIDESPREAD
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS ANTICIPATED TOWARD 12Z FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE, BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST WITH
SOME INCREASE TO ABOUT 5-10 KNOTS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CEILINGS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS, BRIEFLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...10 KNOTS OF LESS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. PER
BUFKIT, THE TRANSFER IN THE MIXED LAYER IS STRONG. FREEZING SPRAY
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL THE TROUGH
PASSES AND BRINGS A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY WIND.

THE WIND SHIFT HAD ALREADY ARRIVED IN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE BY MID
EVENING. IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ACROSS DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY UP TO ABOUT LONG BEACH ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHIFT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE LATE TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE COASTS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT.
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS ISSUED FOR MIDDLESEX COUNTY AND
MONMOUTH COUNTY WAS DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY BASED ON THIS
EVENING`S TIDAL TRENDS.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH THE COASTAL FLOODING MAY WORK ITS WAY UP TO NEW
CASTLE COUNTY AND SALEM COUNTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE SO AN
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THERE UNTIL 200 AM. AS THE WIND SHIFT
TAKES HOLD AND WATER BEGINS TO BE PUSHED AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PART
OF OUR COAST, POSITIVE DEPARTURES SHOULD COME DOWN ENOUGH TO SPARE
THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER FROM ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING LATE
TONIGHT.

WE THINK THAT THIS ROUND OF ADVISORIES SHOULD BE THE LAST FOR
COASTAL AREAS OF DELAWARE, DELAWARE BAY AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY. HOWEVER, THE FACT THAT THE WIND WILL NOT TURN TO THE WEST
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE GIVES
US SOME CONCERN THAT THE WATER WILL HOLD THERE FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. WE WILL REASSESS THE POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES
AROUND MIDNIGHT TO DECIDE WHETHER ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS
APPROPRIATE FOR AREAS NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THERE REMAINED A FAIR AMOUNT OF WATER BOTTLED UP IN CHESAPEAKE BAY
THIS EVENING. WHILE THE WESTERLY WIND HAS REACHED THE BAY AND IT
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRAIN, WE THINK THAT IT WILL NOT BE IN TIME TO
PREVENT ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE UPPER EASTERN
SHORE FROM THE CHOPTANK RIVER UP TO KENT ISLAND. AS A RESULT, WE
HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE COUNTIES OF
CAROLINE, TALBOT AND QUEEN ANNE`S AND IT COVERS THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE. WE SHOULD NOT NEED TO EXTENDED THE ADVISORY
FARTHER NORTH TO KENT COUNTY AND CECIL COUNTY BASED ON THIS
EVENING`S TIDAL TRENDS IN THOSE TWO COUNTIES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-
     012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...GORSE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 100041
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
741 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE REACHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. AT
THE SAME TIME, LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SHOWING UP IN A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. THIS LINES UP VERY CLOSE TO
THE ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY ON THE RADAR. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH A STEADIER SNOW OCCURRING WITH IT
INCLUDING SOME INCREASED INTENSITY AT TIMES. THE EARLIER MORE
PRONOUNCED FORCING IS LIFTING OUT OF THE THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE DELAWARE
VALLEY.

THE AREAS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO BE ON THE MOVE AND
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE OF ORGANIZATION ON A LARGER SCALE. MUCH OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES THIS TREND NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THIS AND ALSO SEVERAL
SNOWFALL REPORTS WE HAVE RECEIVED THUS FAR, WE ARE LOWERING THE
SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS MANY AREAS. IN ADDITION, THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR DELAWARE COUNTY WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE TIME BEING. WE ARE THINKING THAT AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED LATER THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS REPORTED TO US THUS FAR ARE IN
PORTIONS OF CHESTER COUNTY, AND WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE WARNING HERE
ATTM.

SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR
RENEWED DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR AWHILE OVERNIGHT,
HOWEVER THIS MAY BE TIED TO A STRONGER SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO
ARRIVE TOWARD MORNING. THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND ASSOCIATED GRAPHICS
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
BY DAWN, WE EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW TO BE WINDING DOWN
OVER NORTHEAST NJ WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AT RUSH HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, SLIPPERY TRAVEL CAN BE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY
ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...IF I HAD TO CONVEY JUST ONE THING DURING THIS PERIOD
IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE A TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.
LOOKS LIKE TWO PIECES OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE FIRST PIECE ARRIVING
THIS THURSDAY. A TROF OR COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING THE WAY FOR THE COLD AIR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD LATER ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT`S
BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS
FORECAST...H8 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -25 TO 30 DEGREE C RANGE.
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. BECAUSE OF THIS (WILL STILL
HAVE A GRADIENT), WINDS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. BY MONDAY
(PRESIDENTS DAY), THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY, THE SAME FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE
PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.

TEMPERATURES...TO BE ABLE TO GET SOME PERSPECTIVE, NORMALS FOR
KPHL ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW 40S AND MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THAT SAID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE`LL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND
REBOUND FURTHER ON TUESDAY (ABOVE NORMAL). TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE FORECAST AREA
FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE THE RULE, BUT ON SUNDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW TO FIVE ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE COMMON.

PRECIPITATION...NOT SEEING ANY LARGE SCALE EVENTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SMALL POPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT ON TUESDAY.

WIND AND WIND CHILLS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL RELAX ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAMP BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ON SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE, COLDEST NORTH AND WEST.

IMPACTS...IMPACTS WILL BE TIED MORE TO TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL CAN
GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. BITTERLY COLD AIR CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW FOR AWHILE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
/LIFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DURING BURSTS OF SNOW/, MAINLY FOR THE
TERMINALS ALONG I-95 AND POINTS NORTHWEST. BRIEF IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT KMIV AND KACY WITH MORE OF SOME RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX.
AFTER 06Z, WE EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND
10 KNOTS, WITH A SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CEILINGS. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS, BRIEFLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...10 KNOTS OF LESS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. PER
BUFKIT, THE TRANSFER IN THE MIXED LAYER IS STRONG. FREEZING SPRAY
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION TONIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL
THE TROUGH ARRIVES AND BRINGS A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY WIND.

THE WIND SHIFT HAD ALREADY ARRIVED ON THE UPPER PART OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ACROSS
DELAWARE, DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY UP TO ABOUT LONG
BEACH ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE LATE TONIGHT.

THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
OCEANFRONT SHOULD NOT ALLOW WATER TO DRAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THE POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL NOT DECREASE MUCH FOR THIS
EVENING. FORTUNATELY, THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS FOR THIS
EVENING ARE ABOUT 0.6 TO 1.0 FOOT LOWER THAN THOSE OF THIS
MORNING. REGARDLESS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL
FLOODING THIS EVENING AND IT SHOULD FAVOR THE MINOR CATEGORY WITH
ROADWAY FLOODING EXPECTED. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE A
BIT MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AND BASED ON THIS AFTERNOON`S DEPARTURE LEVELS WE HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE FLOODING IN MONMOUTH COUNTY AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY.

ALSO, THE MINOR FLOODING MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO WORK ITS WAY
UP INTO NEW CASTLE COUNTY AND SALEM COUNTY, SO THOSE AREAS ARE
UNDER A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH ENOUGH WATER WILL WORK ITS WAY BACK
UP TO THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING WITH THE LATE
NIGHT HIGH TIDE, SO NO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THERE.

FINALLY, TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ABOUT +2.5 FEET ARE WORKING THEIR
WAY UP CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MINOR FLOODING
THERE AND THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE REMAINS UNDER AN ADVISORY. WE
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY
BASED ON THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE ADVISORY NOW ENDS AT 900 PM
FOR KENT ISLAND AND POINTS SOUTHWARD, AND AT MIDNIGHT FOR KENT
COUNTY AND CECIL COUNTY.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY.

ALSO, A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND ON THURSDAY MAY BEGIN TO GET US
CLOSE TO LOW WATER ADVISORY LEVELS AT THAT TIME AS WATER IS PUSHED
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-070-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ101-102.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>020-026-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ012>014.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-
     012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...FRANCK/GORSE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 100041
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
741 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE REACHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. AT
THE SAME TIME, LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SHOWING UP IN A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. THIS LINES UP VERY CLOSE TO
THE ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY ON THE RADAR. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH A STEADIER SNOW OCCURRING WITH IT
INCLUDING SOME INCREASED INTENSITY AT TIMES. THE EARLIER MORE
PRONOUNCED FORCING IS LIFTING OUT OF THE THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE DELAWARE
VALLEY.

THE AREAS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO BE ON THE MOVE AND
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE OF ORGANIZATION ON A LARGER SCALE. MUCH OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES THIS TREND NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THIS AND ALSO SEVERAL
SNOWFALL REPORTS WE HAVE RECEIVED THUS FAR, WE ARE LOWERING THE
SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS MANY AREAS. IN ADDITION, THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR DELAWARE COUNTY WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE TIME BEING. WE ARE THINKING THAT AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED LATER THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS REPORTED TO US THUS FAR ARE IN
PORTIONS OF CHESTER COUNTY, AND WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE WARNING HERE
ATTM.

SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR
RENEWED DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR AWHILE OVERNIGHT,
HOWEVER THIS MAY BE TIED TO A STRONGER SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO
ARRIVE TOWARD MORNING. THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND ASSOCIATED GRAPHICS
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
BY DAWN, WE EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW TO BE WINDING DOWN
OVER NORTHEAST NJ WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AT RUSH HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, SLIPPERY TRAVEL CAN BE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY
ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...IF I HAD TO CONVEY JUST ONE THING DURING THIS PERIOD
IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE A TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.
LOOKS LIKE TWO PIECES OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE FIRST PIECE ARRIVING
THIS THURSDAY. A TROF OR COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING THE WAY FOR THE COLD AIR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD LATER ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT`S
BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS
FORECAST...H8 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -25 TO 30 DEGREE C RANGE.
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. BECAUSE OF THIS (WILL STILL
HAVE A GRADIENT), WINDS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. BY MONDAY
(PRESIDENTS DAY), THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY, THE SAME FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE
PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.

TEMPERATURES...TO BE ABLE TO GET SOME PERSPECTIVE, NORMALS FOR
KPHL ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW 40S AND MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THAT SAID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE`LL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND
REBOUND FURTHER ON TUESDAY (ABOVE NORMAL). TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE FORECAST AREA
FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE THE RULE, BUT ON SUNDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW TO FIVE ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE COMMON.

PRECIPITATION...NOT SEEING ANY LARGE SCALE EVENTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SMALL POPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT ON TUESDAY.

WIND AND WIND CHILLS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL RELAX ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAMP BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ON SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE, COLDEST NORTH AND WEST.

IMPACTS...IMPACTS WILL BE TIED MORE TO TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL CAN
GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. BITTERLY COLD AIR CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW FOR AWHILE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
/LIFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DURING BURSTS OF SNOW/, MAINLY FOR THE
TERMINALS ALONG I-95 AND POINTS NORTHWEST. BRIEF IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT KMIV AND KACY WITH MORE OF SOME RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX.
AFTER 06Z, WE EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND
10 KNOTS, WITH A SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CEILINGS. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS, BRIEFLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...10 KNOTS OF LESS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. PER
BUFKIT, THE TRANSFER IN THE MIXED LAYER IS STRONG. FREEZING SPRAY
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION TONIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL
THE TROUGH ARRIVES AND BRINGS A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY WIND.

THE WIND SHIFT HAD ALREADY ARRIVED ON THE UPPER PART OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ACROSS
DELAWARE, DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY UP TO ABOUT LONG
BEACH ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE LATE TONIGHT.

THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
OCEANFRONT SHOULD NOT ALLOW WATER TO DRAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THE POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL NOT DECREASE MUCH FOR THIS
EVENING. FORTUNATELY, THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS FOR THIS
EVENING ARE ABOUT 0.6 TO 1.0 FOOT LOWER THAN THOSE OF THIS
MORNING. REGARDLESS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL
FLOODING THIS EVENING AND IT SHOULD FAVOR THE MINOR CATEGORY WITH
ROADWAY FLOODING EXPECTED. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE A
BIT MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AND BASED ON THIS AFTERNOON`S DEPARTURE LEVELS WE HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE FLOODING IN MONMOUTH COUNTY AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY.

ALSO, THE MINOR FLOODING MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO WORK ITS WAY
UP INTO NEW CASTLE COUNTY AND SALEM COUNTY, SO THOSE AREAS ARE
UNDER A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH ENOUGH WATER WILL WORK ITS WAY BACK
UP TO THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING WITH THE LATE
NIGHT HIGH TIDE, SO NO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THERE.

FINALLY, TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ABOUT +2.5 FEET ARE WORKING THEIR
WAY UP CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MINOR FLOODING
THERE AND THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE REMAINS UNDER AN ADVISORY. WE
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY
BASED ON THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE ADVISORY NOW ENDS AT 900 PM
FOR KENT ISLAND AND POINTS SOUTHWARD, AND AT MIDNIGHT FOR KENT
COUNTY AND CECIL COUNTY.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY.

ALSO, A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND ON THURSDAY MAY BEGIN TO GET US
CLOSE TO LOW WATER ADVISORY LEVELS AT THAT TIME AS WATER IS PUSHED
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-070-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ101-102.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>020-026-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ012>014.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-
     012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...FRANCK/GORSE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 100041
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
741 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
730 PM UPDATE...AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF
A STRONGER SHORT WAVE REACHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. AT
THE SAME TIME, LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SHOWING UP IN A
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. THIS LINES UP VERY CLOSE TO
THE ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY ON THE RADAR. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO
SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH A STEADIER SNOW OCCURRING WITH IT
INCLUDING SOME INCREASED INTENSITY AT TIMES. THE EARLIER MORE
PRONOUNCED FORCING IS LIFTING OUT OF THE THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY AND ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE DELAWARE
VALLEY.

THE AREAS OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL CONTINUES TO BE ON THE MOVE AND
THERE IS NOT A WHOLE OF ORGANIZATION ON A LARGER SCALE. MUCH OF
THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES THIS TREND NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THIS AND ALSO SEVERAL
SNOWFALL REPORTS WE HAVE RECEIVED THUS FAR, WE ARE LOWERING THE
SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS MANY AREAS. IN ADDITION, THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR DELAWARE COUNTY WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE TIME BEING. WE ARE THINKING THAT AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE ADVISORY CAN BE CANCELLED LATER THIS
EVENING. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS REPORTED TO US THUS FAR ARE IN
PORTIONS OF CHESTER COUNTY, AND WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE WARNING HERE
ATTM.

SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR
RENEWED DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR AWHILE OVERNIGHT,
HOWEVER THIS MAY BE TIED TO A STRONGER SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO
ARRIVE TOWARD MORNING. THE SNOW AMOUNTS AND ASSOCIATED GRAPHICS
WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
BY DAWN, WE EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW TO BE WINDING DOWN
OVER NORTHEAST NJ WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AT RUSH HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, SLIPPERY TRAVEL CAN BE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY
ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...IF I HAD TO CONVEY JUST ONE THING DURING THIS PERIOD
IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE A TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.
LOOKS LIKE TWO PIECES OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE FIRST PIECE ARRIVING
THIS THURSDAY. A TROF OR COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING THE WAY FOR THE COLD AIR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD LATER ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT`S
BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS
FORECAST...H8 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -25 TO 30 DEGREE C RANGE.
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. BECAUSE OF THIS (WILL STILL
HAVE A GRADIENT), WINDS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. BY MONDAY
(PRESIDENTS DAY), THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY, THE SAME FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE
PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.

TEMPERATURES...TO BE ABLE TO GET SOME PERSPECTIVE, NORMALS FOR
KPHL ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW 40S AND MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THAT SAID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE`LL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND
REBOUND FURTHER ON TUESDAY (ABOVE NORMAL). TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE FORECAST AREA
FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE THE RULE, BUT ON SUNDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW TO FIVE ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE COMMON.

PRECIPITATION...NOT SEEING ANY LARGE SCALE EVENTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SMALL POPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT ON TUESDAY.

WIND AND WIND CHILLS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL RELAX ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAMP BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ON SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE, COLDEST NORTH AND WEST.

IMPACTS...IMPACTS WILL BE TIED MORE TO TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL CAN
GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. BITTERLY COLD AIR CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW FOR AWHILE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
/LIFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DURING BURSTS OF SNOW/, MAINLY FOR THE
TERMINALS ALONG I-95 AND POINTS NORTHWEST. BRIEF IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT KMIV AND KACY WITH MORE OF SOME RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX.
AFTER 06Z, WE EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND
10 KNOTS, WITH A SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CEILINGS. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS, BRIEFLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...10 KNOTS OF LESS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. PER
BUFKIT, THE TRANSFER IN THE MIXED LAYER IS STRONG. FREEZING SPRAY
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION TONIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL
THE TROUGH ARRIVES AND BRINGS A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY WIND.

THE WIND SHIFT HAD ALREADY ARRIVED ON THE UPPER PART OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ACROSS
DELAWARE, DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY UP TO ABOUT LONG
BEACH ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE LATE TONIGHT.

THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
OCEANFRONT SHOULD NOT ALLOW WATER TO DRAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THE POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL NOT DECREASE MUCH FOR THIS
EVENING. FORTUNATELY, THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS FOR THIS
EVENING ARE ABOUT 0.6 TO 1.0 FOOT LOWER THAN THOSE OF THIS
MORNING. REGARDLESS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL
FLOODING THIS EVENING AND IT SHOULD FAVOR THE MINOR CATEGORY WITH
ROADWAY FLOODING EXPECTED. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE A
BIT MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AND BASED ON THIS AFTERNOON`S DEPARTURE LEVELS WE HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE FLOODING IN MONMOUTH COUNTY AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY.

ALSO, THE MINOR FLOODING MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO WORK ITS WAY
UP INTO NEW CASTLE COUNTY AND SALEM COUNTY, SO THOSE AREAS ARE
UNDER A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH ENOUGH WATER WILL WORK ITS WAY BACK
UP TO THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING WITH THE LATE
NIGHT HIGH TIDE, SO NO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THERE.

FINALLY, TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ABOUT +2.5 FEET ARE WORKING THEIR
WAY UP CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MINOR FLOODING
THERE AND THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE REMAINS UNDER AN ADVISORY. WE
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY
BASED ON THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE ADVISORY NOW ENDS AT 900 PM
FOR KENT ISLAND AND POINTS SOUTHWARD, AND AT MIDNIGHT FOR KENT
COUNTY AND CECIL COUNTY.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY.

ALSO, A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND ON THURSDAY MAY BEGIN TO GET US
CLOSE TO LOW WATER ADVISORY LEVELS AT THAT TIME AS WATER IS PUSHED
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-070-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ101-102.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>020-026-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ012>014.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-
     012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...FRANCK/GORSE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 092247
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
547 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
530 PM UPDATE...AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF A
STRONGER SHORT WAVE REACHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. AT THE
SAME TIME, LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS SHOWING UP IN A NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. THIS LINES UP VERY CLOSE TO WHERE A
HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY SLIDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD WITH A BURST OF SNOW OCCURRING WITH IT. THE MORE
PRONOUNCED LIFT CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED BACK IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY AND TOWARD THE LEHIGH VALLEY.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, DESPITE COLD ENOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER HAS JUST BEEN TO WARM AND THAT IS ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY
SOME RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ACROSS MUCH OF DELMARVA. THERE ARE
HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES EVIDENT IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THIS MAY BE
SOME SLEET OR LARGE WET SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
MORE CONVECTIVE LOOK.

SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR
RENEWED DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING,
THEREFORE BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW AT TIMES FROM ABOUT THE INTERSTATE
95 CORRIDOR ON NORTH AND WEST CAN BE EXPECTED. THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF MARYLANDS EASTERN SHORE MAY
BE CANCELLED IF TRENDS HOLD IN SHIFTING MORE OF THE SNOW FARTHER
NORTH. THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS SO FAR ARE MAINLY IN PORTIONS OF
CHESTER COUNTY AND THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP THE WARNING GOING THERE,
HOWEVER WE MAY VERY WELL FALL SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA IN DELAWARE
COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
BY DAWN, WE EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW TO BE WINDING DOWN
OVER NORTHEAST NJ WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AT RUSH HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, SLIPPERY TRAVEL CAN BE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY
ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...IF I HAD TO CONVEY JUST ONE THING DURING THIS PERIOD
IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE A TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.
LOOKS LIKE TWO PIECES OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE FIRST PIECE ARRIVING
THIS THURSDAY. A TROF OR COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING THE WAY FOR THE COLD AIR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD LATER ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT`S
BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS
FORECAST...H8 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -25 TO 30 DEGREE C RANGE.
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. BECAUSE OF THIS (WILL STILL
HAVE A GRADIENT), WINDS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. BY MONDAY
(PRESIDENTS DAY), THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY, THE SAME FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE
PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.

TEMPERATURES...TO BE ABLE TO GET SOME PERSPECTIVE, NORMALS FOR
KPHL ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW 40S AND MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THAT SAID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE`LL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND
REBOUND FURTHER ON TUESDAY (ABOVE NORMAL). TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE FORECAST AREA
FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE THE RULE, BUT ON SUNDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW TO FIVE ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE COMMON.

PRECIPITATION...NOT SEEING ANY LARGE SCALE EVENTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SMALL POPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT ON TUESDAY.

WIND AND WIND CHILLS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL RELAX ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAMP BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ON SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE, COLDEST NORTH AND WEST.

IMPACTS...IMPACTS WILL BE TIED MORE TO TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL CAN
GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. BITTERLY COLD AIR CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW FOR AWHILE WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
/LIFR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES DURING BURSTS OF SNOW/, MAINLY FOR THE
TERMINALS ALONG I-95 AND POINTS NORTHWEST. BRIEF IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT KMIV AND KACY WITH MORE OF SOME RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX.
AFTER 06Z, WE EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND
10 KNOTS, WITH A SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS, BRIEFLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...10 KNOTS OF LESS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. PER
BUFKIT, THE TRANSFER IN THE MIXED LAYER IS STRONG. FREEZING SPRAY
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION TONIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL
THE TROUGH ARRIVES AND BRINGS A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY WIND.

THE WIND SHIFT HAD ALREADY ARRIVED ON THE UPPER PART OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ACROSS
DELAWARE, DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY UP TO ABOUT LONG
BEACH ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE LATE TONIGHT.

THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
OCEANFRONT SHOULD NOT ALLOW WATER TO DRAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THE POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL NOT DECREASE MUCH FOR THIS
EVENING. FORTUNATELY, THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS FOR THIS
EVENING ARE ABOUT 0.6 TO 1.0 FOOT LOWER THAN THOSE OF THIS
MORNING. REGARDLESS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL
FLOODING THIS EVENING AND IT SHOULD FAVOR THE MINOR CATEGORY WITH
ROADWAY FLOODING EXPECTED. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE A
BIT MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AND BASED ON THIS AFTERNOON`S DEPARTURE LEVELS WE HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE FLOODING IN MONMOUTH COUNTY AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY.

ALSO, THE MINOR FLOODING MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO WORK ITS WAY
UP INTO NEW CASTLE COUNTY AND SALEM COUNTY, SO THOSE AREAS ARE
UNDER A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH ENOUGH WATER WILL WORK ITS WAY BACK
UP TO THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING WITH THE LATE
NIGHT HIGH TIDE, SO NO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THERE.

FINALLY, TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ABOUT +2.5 FEET ARE WORKING THEIR
WAY UP CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MINOR FLOODING
THERE AND THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE REMAINS UNDER AN ADVISORY. WE
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY
BASED ON THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE ADVISORY NOW ENDS AT 900 PM
FOR KENT ISLAND AND POINTS SOUTHWARD, AND AT MIDNIGHT FOR KENT
COUNTY AND CECIL COUNTY.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY.

ALSO, A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND ON THURSDAY MAY BEGIN TO GET US
CLOSE TO LOW WATER ADVISORY LEVELS AT THAT TIME AS WATER IS PUSHED
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>020-026-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ012>014.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-
     012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...FRANCK/GORSE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 092202
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
502 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
THE MID- ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM, LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP
APPROACHING THE EASTERN WESTERN SHORT OF VA. MEANWHILE, PRECIP IS
SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NJ, BUT IS
STILL STRUGGLING TO REACH POINTS FURTHER NORTH WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP HAS SHIFTED TO DELMARVA IN ADVANCE OF A
MID- LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A SWATH OF HEAVIER PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED SNOWFALL TOTALS DOWNWARD SOUTHEAST OF I-95 AND
I- 195, AND DROPPED THE SNOW ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY FROM ATLANTIC
COUNTY NJ SOUTHWEST TO QUEEN ANNE`S COUNTY MD AND POINTS
SOUTHEAST, AS THE PRECIP WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY JUST NORTH OF THE
I- 195 CORRIDOR, WHERE WE EXPECT MAINLY SNOW, AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED.

ELSEWHERE, THE SNOW ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNING REMAIN IN
EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
BY DAWN, WE EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW TO BE WINDING DOWN
OVER NORTHEAST NJ WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AT RUSH HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER
MOST OF THE REGION, SLIPPERY TRAVEL CAN BE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY
ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...IF I HAD TO CONVEY JUST ONE THING DURING THIS PERIOD
IT WOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
THIS WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE A TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST.
LOOKS LIKE TWO PIECES OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY
TOWARD THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE FIRST PIECE ARRIVING
THIS THURSDAY. A TROF OR COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEADING THE WAY FOR THE COLD AIR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD LATER ON THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS
THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL RELOAD. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT`S
BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS
FORECAST...H8 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE -25 TO 30 DEGREE C RANGE.
ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. BECAUSE OF THIS (WILL STILL
HAVE A GRADIENT), WINDS WILL BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. BY MONDAY
(PRESIDENTS DAY), THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY, THE SAME FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT OFFSHORE
PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.

TEMPERATURES...TO BE ABLE TO GET SOME PERSPECTIVE, NORMALS FOR
KPHL ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW 40S AND MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THAT SAID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WE`LL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND
REBOUND FURTHER ON TUESDAY (ABOVE NORMAL). TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE FORECAST AREA
FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS WILL BE THE RULE, BUT ON SUNDAY MORNING,
TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW TO FIVE ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE COMMON.

PRECIPITATION...NOT SEEING ANY LARGE SCALE EVENTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SMALL POPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT ON TUESDAY.

WIND AND WIND CHILLS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL RELAX ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAMP BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND
CHILLS ON SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE, COLDEST NORTH AND WEST.

IMPACTS...IMPACTS WILL BE TIED MORE TO TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL CAN
GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. BITTERLY COLD AIR CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION, EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS
AT TIMES, MAINLY TERMINALS ALONG I-95 AND POINTS NORTHWEST. BRIEF
IFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT MIV AND ACY. AFTER 06Z, WE EXPECT GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT, WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS, WITH A SHIFT TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 TO 20
KTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS, BRIEFLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...10 KNOTS OF LESS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. PER
BUFKIT, THE TRANSFER IN THE MIXED LAYER IS STRONG. FREEZING SPRAY
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A
TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION TONIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL
THE TROUGH ARRIVES AND BRINGS A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY WIND.

THE WIND SHIFT HAD ALREADY ARRIVED ON THE UPPER PART OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ACROSS
DELAWARE, DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY UP TO ABOUT LONG
BEACH ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE LATE TONIGHT.

THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
OCEANFRONT SHOULD NOT ALLOW WATER TO DRAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST.
THE POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL NOT DECREASE MUCH FOR THIS
EVENING. FORTUNATELY, THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS FOR THIS
EVENING ARE ABOUT 0.6 TO 1.0 FOOT LOWER THAN THOSE OF THIS
MORNING. REGARDLESS, WE ARE ANTICIPATING ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL
FLOODING THIS EVENING AND IT SHOULD FAVOR THE MINOR CATEGORY WITH
ROADWAY FLOODING EXPECTED. THE ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE A
BIT MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NEW JERSEY
COAST AND BASED ON THIS AFTERNOON`S DEPARTURE LEVELS WE HAVE
DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
MODERATE FLOODING IN MONMOUTH COUNTY AND MIDDLESEX COUNTY.

ALSO, THE MINOR FLOODING MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO WORK ITS WAY
UP INTO NEW CASTLE COUNTY AND SALEM COUNTY, SO THOSE AREAS ARE
UNDER A NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH ENOUGH WATER WILL WORK ITS WAY BACK
UP TO THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING WITH THE LATE
NIGHT HIGH TIDE, SO NO ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THERE.

FINALLY, TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ABOUT +2.5 FEET ARE WORKING THEIR
WAY UP CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MINOR FLOODING
THERE AND THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE REMAINS UNDER AN ADVISORY. WE
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY
BASED ON THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE ADVISORY NOW ENDS AT 900 PM
FOR KENT ISLAND AND POINTS SOUTHWARD, AND AT MIDNIGHT FOR KENT
COUNTY AND CECIL COUNTY.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY.

ALSO, A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND ON THURSDAY MAY BEGIN TO GET US
CLOSE TO LOW WATER ADVISORY LEVELS AT THAT TIME AS WATER IS PUSHED
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>020-026-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ012>014.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-
     012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...FRANCK
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
MARINE...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 092130
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC OR SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM, LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP
APPROACHING THE EASTERN WESTERN SHORT OF VA. MEANWHILE, PRECIP IS
SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NJ, BUT IS STILL
STRUGGLING TO REACH POINTS FURTHER NORTH WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP HAS SHIFTED TO DELMARVA IN ADVANCE OF A MID-
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A SWATH OF HEAVIER PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED SNOWFALL TOTALS DOWNWARD SOUTHEAST OF I-95 AND I-
195, AND DROPPED THE SNOW ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY FROM ATLANTIC COUNTY
NJ SOUTHWEST TO QUEEN ANNE`S COUNTY MD AND POINTS SOUTHEAST, AS THE
PRECIP WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY JUST NORTH OF THE I-
195 CORRIDOR, WHERE WE EXPECT MAINLY SNOW, AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED.

ELSEWHERE, THE SNOW ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNING REMAIN IN
EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY DAWN, WE EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER LIGHT SNOW TO BE WINDING DOWN OVER
NORTHEAST NJ WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWERS 30S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AT RUSH HOUR. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL HAVE ENDED OVER MOST
OF THE REGION, SLIPPERY TRAVEL CAN BE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY ON
UNTREATED SURFACES.

OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...IF I HAD TO CONVEY JUST ONE THING DURING THIS PERIOD IT
WOULD BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THIS
WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE A TROF ACROSS THE EAST AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST. LOOKS
LIKE TWO PIECES OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR WILL WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH THE FIRST PIECE ARRIVING THIS THURSDAY. A
TROF OR COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEADING THE
WAY FOR THE COLD AIR. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD LATER ON THURSDAY
AND PERSIST INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS THE MID-LEVEL TROF WILL
RELOAD. A SECOND FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME ON
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. IT`S BEHIND THIS FRONT WHERE THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS FORECAST...H8 TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
-25 TO 30 DEGREE C RANGE. ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY.
BECAUSE OF THIS (WILL STILL HAVE A GRADIENT), WINDS WILL BE QUITE
NOTICEABLE. BY MONDAY (PRESIDENTS DAY), THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. BY TUESDAY, THE SAME FEATURE SHOULD
SHIFT OFFSHORE PROVIDING A RETURN FLOW BEFORE THE NEXT FROPA.

TEMPERATURES...TO BE ABLE TO GET SOME PERSPECTIVE, NORMALS FOR KPHL
ARE BASICALLY IN THE LOW 40S AND MID 20S THROUGH THE PERIOD. THAT
SAID, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WE`LL START TO MODERATE ON MONDAY (NEAR NORMAL) AND REBOUND FURTHER
ON TUESDAY (ABOVE NORMAL). TEMPERATURES MAY NOT CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING
ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, THE FORECAST AREA FROM EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING TO MONDAY MORNING. LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL
BE THE RULE, BUT ON SUNDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT 5 BELOW
TO FIVE ABOVE ARE POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME WILL BE COMMON.

PRECIPITATION...NOT SEEING ANY LARGE SCALE EVENTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SMALL POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SMALL POPS AGAIN WITH THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHOT ON TUESDAY.

WIND AND WINDCHILLS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT CAN BE EXPECTED
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 20 RANGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL RELAX ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AND RAMP BACK UP SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND CHILLS ON
SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F RANGE, COLDEST
NORTH AND WEST.

IMPACTS...IMPACTS WILL BE TIED MORE TO TEMPERATURES RATHER THAN
PRECIPITATION. BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR SQUALL CAN
GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. BITTERLY COLD AIR CAN BE ANTICIPATED
ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDCHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25 DEGREE F
RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION, EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES, MAINLY TERMINALS ALONG I-95 AND POINTS NORTHWEST. BRIEF IFR
IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT MIV AND ACY. AFTER 06Z, WE EXPECT GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT, WITH PREDOMINANTLY VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY 12Z. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS, WITH A SHIFT TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 06Z.

WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. WEST-NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 20 TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS
15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS, BRIEFLY BECOMING
SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY...10 KNOTS OF LESS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

SUNDAY...VFR WITH DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD, MAINLY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IN THE 4 TO 7 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...

A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT BENEATH
STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND A DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER. PER BUFKIT,
THE TRANSFER IN THE MIXED LAYER IS STRONG. FREEZING SPRAY SHOULD
DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST
PERIOD OF LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES
SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND A TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION
TONIGHT. AN ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL THE TROUGH
ARRIVES AND BRINGS A SHIFT TO A WESTERLY WIND.

THE WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON THE UPPER PART OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY ACROSS DELAWARE,
DELAWARE BAY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY UP TO ABOUT LONG BEACH ISLAND
BY MIDNIGHT. THE WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE JERSEY SHORE LATE TONIGHT.

THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE OCEANFRONT
SHOULD NOT ALLOW WATER TO DRAIN AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE POSITIVE
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL NOT DECREASE MUCH FOR THIS EVENING.
FORTUNATELY, THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS FOR THIS EVENING ARE ABOUT
0.6 TO 1.0 FOOT LOWER THAN THOSE OF THIS MORNING. REGARDLESS, WE ARE
ANTICIPATING ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOODING THIS EVENING AND IT
SHOULD FAVOR THE MINOR CATEGORY WITH ROADWAY FLOODING EXPECTED. THE
ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND BASED ON THIS AFTERNOON`S
DEPARTURE LEVELS WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE FLOODING IN MONMOUTH COUNTY AND
MIDDLESEX COUNTY.

ALSO, THE MINOR FLOODING MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO WORK ITS WAY UP
INTO NEW CASTLE COUNTY AND SALEM COUNTY, SO THOSE AREAS ARE UNDER A
NEW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

WE THINK THAT AFTER THE CURRENT MINOR FLOODING FINISHES WORKING ITS
WAY UP THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE
NO ADDITIONAL ISSUES IN THAT AREA. WE PLAN ON DROPPING THE ADVISORY
THERE AT 500 PM AND NOT ISSUING A NEW ONE.

FINALLY, TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ABOUT +2.5 FEET ARE WORKING THEIR WAY
UP CHESAPEAKE BAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MINOR FLOODING THERE AND
THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE REMAINS UNDER AN ADVISORY. WE HAVE MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ENDING TIME OF THE ADVISORY BASED ON THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. THE ADVISORY NOW ENDS AT 900 PM FOR KENT ISLAND
AND POINTS SOUTHWARD, AND AT MIDNIGHT FOR KENT COUNTY AND CECIL
COUNTY.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERLY WIND WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL FLOODING ON WEDNESDAY.

ALSO, A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND ON THURSDAY MAY BEGIN TO GET US
CLOSE TO LOW WATER ADVISORY LEVELS AT THAT TIME AS WATER IS PUSHED
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY
25 BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>020-026-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR NJZ020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR NJZ012>014.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
     TONIGHT FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-
     012.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...FRANCK
SHORT TERM...FRANCK
LONG TERM...KRUZDLO
AVIATION...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
MARINE...FRANCK/KRUZDLO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO
CLIMATE...DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 091847
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
147 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH DELMARVA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. AS OF 10 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER AND POINTS NORTH OF CECIL AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAIN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH. COMPLEX FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE AND INTENSITY WITH A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ALOFT AND VERY WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AOB 925 MB. THUS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE. HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE NAM IS
CAPTURING THE FORCING AND QPF BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH IS TOO
ROBUST.

AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST, WE EXPECT SNOW TO
BE MAINTAINED WHERE IT IS FALLING NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MD AND
NORTHERN DE, GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW, SO A WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS DURING TONIGHT, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, AND WITH IT, AND
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SSTS HAVE RETURNED ABOVE NORMAL SINCE THE REMARKABLE DIP AROUND
JANUARY 20...AND ARE NOW ABOUT 5 TO 8F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG OUR
COASTS. THIS WILL PROBABLY PLAY A ROLE IN STEEPENING LOW LVL OVERWATER
LAPSE RATES AND PROBABLY INCREASE POTENTIAL TRANSFER FROM WIND ALOFT.

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET.

A GALE WATCH MAY POST FOR THURSDAY IN OUR 330 PM FORECAST WITH WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPENING
BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 MB (~5000 FT) FOR MOMENTUM MIXING TRANSFER. FREEZING
SPRAY SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST PERIOD OF LAST
FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD DEVELOP AS
WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STORM TIDE COMPARISON IN MLLW

           FEB 8      FEB 9       MDT FS
SANDY HOOK 8.21-1224Z 8.19-1336Z  7.7
ATLNTC CTY 7.28-1236Z 7.27-1330Z  7.0
CAPE MAY   7.93-1348Z 8.18-1354Z  7.7
LEWES      7.09-1342Z 7.26-1406Z  7.0

THE WARNING FOR THE NJ AND DE COASTS HAS EXPIRED. WE`RE CONSIDERING
A LESSER ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR OUR 330 PM ISSUANCE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THIS MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING
SLIGHTLY GREATER FLOODING COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE.
THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT,
WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVEL COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO
MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR MONMOUTH MIDDLESEX COUNTIES NEAR
RARITAN BAY AND SANDY HOOK.

WIDESPREAD MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WAS OCCURRING
IN UPPER DELAWARE BAY WITH THE LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH REEDY
POINT DELAWARE.

FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES WERE DECREASING RAPIDLY
AT REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. NO COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NEEDED
AT PHILADELPHIA AT THIS TIME.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING. THERE WAS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY25
BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 147P
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 091847
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
147 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH DELMARVA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. AS OF 10 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER AND POINTS NORTH OF CECIL AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAIN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH. COMPLEX FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE AND INTENSITY WITH A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ALOFT AND VERY WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AOB 925 MB. THUS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE. HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE NAM IS
CAPTURING THE FORCING AND QPF BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH IS TOO
ROBUST.

AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST, WE EXPECT SNOW TO
BE MAINTAINED WHERE IT IS FALLING NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MD AND
NORTHERN DE, GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW, SO A WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS DURING TONIGHT, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, AND WITH IT, AND
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SSTS HAVE RETURNED ABOVE NORMAL SINCE THE REMARKABLE DIP AROUND
JANUARY 20...AND ARE NOW ABOUT 5 TO 8F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG OUR
COASTS. THIS WILL PROBABLY PLAY A ROLE IN STEEPENING LOW LVL OVERWATER
LAPSE RATES AND PROBABLY INCREASE POTENTIAL TRANSFER FROM WIND ALOFT.

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET.

A GALE WATCH MAY POST FOR THURSDAY IN OUR 330 PM FORECAST WITH WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPENING
BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 MB (~5000 FT) FOR MOMENTUM MIXING TRANSFER. FREEZING
SPRAY SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST PERIOD OF LAST
FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD DEVELOP AS
WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STORM TIDE COMPARISON IN MLLW

           FEB 8      FEB 9       MDT FS
SANDY HOOK 8.21-1224Z 8.19-1336Z  7.7
ATLNTC CTY 7.28-1236Z 7.27-1330Z  7.0
CAPE MAY   7.93-1348Z 8.18-1354Z  7.7
LEWES      7.09-1342Z 7.26-1406Z  7.0

THE WARNING FOR THE NJ AND DE COASTS HAS EXPIRED. WE`RE CONSIDERING
A LESSER ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR OUR 330 PM ISSUANCE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THIS MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING
SLIGHTLY GREATER FLOODING COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE.
THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT,
WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVEL COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO
MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR MONMOUTH MIDDLESEX COUNTIES NEAR
RARITAN BAY AND SANDY HOOK.

WIDESPREAD MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WAS OCCURRING
IN UPPER DELAWARE BAY WITH THE LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH REEDY
POINT DELAWARE.

FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES WERE DECREASING RAPIDLY
AT REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. NO COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NEEDED
AT PHILADELPHIA AT THIS TIME.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING. THERE WAS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY25
BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 147P
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 091847
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
147 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH DELMARVA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. AS OF 10 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER AND POINTS NORTH OF CECIL AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAIN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH. COMPLEX FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE AND INTENSITY WITH A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ALOFT AND VERY WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AOB 925 MB. THUS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE. HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE NAM IS
CAPTURING THE FORCING AND QPF BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH IS TOO
ROBUST.

AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST, WE EXPECT SNOW TO
BE MAINTAINED WHERE IT IS FALLING NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MD AND
NORTHERN DE, GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW, SO A WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS DURING TONIGHT, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, AND WITH IT, AND
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SSTS HAVE RETURNED ABOVE NORMAL SINCE THE REMARKABLE DIP AROUND
JANUARY 20...AND ARE NOW ABOUT 5 TO 8F ABOVE NORMAL ALONG OUR
COASTS. THIS WILL PROBABLY PLAY A ROLE IN STEEPENING LOW LVL OVERWATER
LAPSE RATES AND PROBABLY INCREASE POTENTIAL TRANSFER FROM WIND ALOFT.

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET.

A GALE WATCH MAY POST FOR THURSDAY IN OUR 330 PM FORECAST WITH WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPENING
BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 MB (~5000 FT) FOR MOMENTUM MIXING TRANSFER. FREEZING
SPRAY SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST PERIOD OF LAST
FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD DEVELOP AS
WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STORM TIDE COMPARISON IN MLLW

           FEB 8      FEB 9       MDT FS
SANDY HOOK 8.21-1224Z 8.19-1336Z  7.7
ATLNTC CTY 7.28-1236Z 7.27-1330Z  7.0
CAPE MAY   7.93-1348Z 8.18-1354Z  7.7
LEWES      7.09-1342Z 7.26-1406Z  7.0

THE WARNING FOR THE NJ AND DE COASTS HAS EXPIRED. WE`RE CONSIDERING
A LESSER ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR OUR 330 PM ISSUANCE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THIS MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING
SLIGHTLY GREATER FLOODING COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE.
THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT,
WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVEL COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO
MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR MONMOUTH MIDDLESEX COUNTIES NEAR
RARITAN BAY AND SANDY HOOK.

WIDESPREAD MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WAS OCCURRING
IN UPPER DELAWARE BAY WITH THE LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH REEDY
POINT DELAWARE.

FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES WERE DECREASING RAPIDLY
AT REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. NO COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NEEDED
AT PHILADELPHIA AT THIS TIME.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING. THERE WAS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY25
BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 147P
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 091820
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
120 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH DELMARVA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. AS OF 10 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER AND POINTS NORTH OF CECIL AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAIN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH. COMPLEX FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE AND INTENSITY WITH A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ALOFT AND VERY WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AOB 925 MB. THUS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE. HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE NAM IS
CAPTURING THE FORCING AND QPF BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH IS TOO
ROBUST.

AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST, WE EXPECT SNOW TO
BE MAINTAINED WHERE IT IS FALLING NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MD AND
NORTHERN DE, GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW, SO A WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS DURING TONIGHT, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, AND WITH IT, AND
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET.

A GALE WATCH MAY POST FOR THURSDAY IN OUR 330 PM FORECAST WITH WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPENING
BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 MB (~5000 FT) FOR MOMENTUM MIXING TRANSFER. FREEZING
SPRAY SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST PERIOD OF LAST
FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD DEVELOP AS
WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STORM TIDE COMPARISON IN MLLW

           FEB 8      FEB 9       MDT FS
SANDY HOOK 8.21-1224Z 8.19-1336Z  7.7
ATLNTC CTY 7.28-1236Z 7.27-1330Z  7.0
CAPE MAY   7.93-1348Z 8.18-1354Z  7.7
LEWES      7.09-1342Z 7.26-1406Z  7.0

THE WARNING FOR THE NJ AND DE COASTS HAS EXPIRED. WE`RE CONSIDERING
A LESSER ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR OUR 330 PM ISSUANCE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THIS MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING
SLIGHTLY GREATER FLOODING COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE.
THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT,
WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVEL COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO
MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR MONMOUTH MIDDLESEX COUNTIES NEAR
RARITAN BAY AND SANDY HOOK.

WIDESPREAD MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WAS OCCURRING
IN UPPER DELAWARE BAY WITH THE LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH REEDY
POINT DELAWARE.

FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES WERE DECREASING RAPIDLY
AT REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. NO COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NEEDED
AT PHILADELPHIA AT THIS TIME.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING. THERE WAS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY25
BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 120P
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...120P
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 091820
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
120 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH DELMARVA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. AS OF 10 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER AND POINTS NORTH OF CECIL AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAIN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH. COMPLEX FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE AND INTENSITY WITH A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ALOFT AND VERY WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AOB 925 MB. THUS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE. HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE NAM IS
CAPTURING THE FORCING AND QPF BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH IS TOO
ROBUST.

AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST, WE EXPECT SNOW TO
BE MAINTAINED WHERE IT IS FALLING NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MD AND
NORTHERN DE, GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW, SO A WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS DURING TONIGHT, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, AND WITH IT, AND
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET.

A GALE WATCH MAY POST FOR THURSDAY IN OUR 330 PM FORECAST WITH WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPENING
BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 MB (~5000 FT) FOR MOMENTUM MIXING TRANSFER. FREEZING
SPRAY SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST PERIOD OF LAST
FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD DEVELOP AS
WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STORM TIDE COMPARISON IN MLLW

           FEB 8      FEB 9       MDT FS
SANDY HOOK 8.21-1224Z 8.19-1336Z  7.7
ATLNTC CTY 7.28-1236Z 7.27-1330Z  7.0
CAPE MAY   7.93-1348Z 8.18-1354Z  7.7
LEWES      7.09-1342Z 7.26-1406Z  7.0

THE WARNING FOR THE NJ AND DE COASTS HAS EXPIRED. WE`RE CONSIDERING
A LESSER ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR OUR 330 PM ISSUANCE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THIS MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING
SLIGHTLY GREATER FLOODING COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE.
THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT,
WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVEL COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO
MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR MONMOUTH MIDDLESEX COUNTIES NEAR
RARITAN BAY AND SANDY HOOK.

WIDESPREAD MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WAS OCCURRING
IN UPPER DELAWARE BAY WITH THE LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH REEDY
POINT DELAWARE.

FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES WERE DECREASING RAPIDLY
AT REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. NO COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NEEDED
AT PHILADELPHIA AT THIS TIME.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING. THERE WAS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY25
BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 120P
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...120P
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 091820
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
120 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH DELMARVA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. AS OF 10 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER AND POINTS NORTH OF CECIL AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAIN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH. COMPLEX FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE AND INTENSITY WITH A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ALOFT AND VERY WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AOB 925 MB. THUS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE. HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE NAM IS
CAPTURING THE FORCING AND QPF BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH IS TOO
ROBUST.

AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST, WE EXPECT SNOW TO
BE MAINTAINED WHERE IT IS FALLING NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MD AND
NORTHERN DE, GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW, SO A WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS DURING TONIGHT, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, AND WITH IT, AND
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET.

A GALE WATCH MAY POST FOR THURSDAY IN OUR 330 PM FORECAST WITH WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND DEEPENING
BOUNDARY LAYER TO 850 MB (~5000 FT) FOR MOMENTUM MIXING TRANSFER. FREEZING
SPRAY SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST PERIOD OF LAST
FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD DEVELOP AS
WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STORM TIDE COMPARISON IN MLLW

           FEB 8      FEB 9       MDT FS
SANDY HOOK 8.21-1224Z 8.19-1336Z  7.7
ATLNTC CTY 7.28-1236Z 7.27-1330Z  7.0
CAPE MAY   7.93-1348Z 8.18-1354Z  7.7
LEWES      7.09-1342Z 7.26-1406Z  7.0

THE WARNING FOR THE NJ AND DE COASTS HAS EXPIRED. WE`RE CONSIDERING
A LESSER ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR OUR 330 PM ISSUANCE.

WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THIS MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING
SLIGHTLY GREATER FLOODING COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE.
THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT,
WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVEL COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO
MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR MONMOUTH MIDDLESEX COUNTIES NEAR
RARITAN BAY AND SANDY HOOK.

WIDESPREAD MINOR TO POSSIBLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WAS OCCURRING
IN UPPER DELAWARE BAY WITH THE LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH REEDY
POINT DELAWARE.

FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES WERE DECREASING RAPIDLY
AT REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. NO COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NEEDED
AT PHILADELPHIA AT THIS TIME.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING. THERE WAS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY25
BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 120P
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...120P
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 091641
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1141 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH DELMARVA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. AS OF 10 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER AND POINTS NORTH OF CECIL AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAIN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH. COMPLEX FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE AND INTENSITY WITH A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ALOFT AND VERY WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AOB 925 MB. THUS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE. HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE NAM IS
CAPTURING THE FORCING AND QPF BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH IS TOO
ROBUST.

AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST, WE EXPECT SNOW TO
BE MAINTAINED WHERE IT IS FALLING NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MD AND
NORTHERN DE, GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW, SO A WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS DURING TONIGHT, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, AND WITH IT, AND
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET.

A GALE WATCH MAY POST FOR THURSDAY IN OUR 330 PM FORECAST WITH
WEST NORTHWEST INCREASING BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MOMENTUM MIXING TRANSFER TO 850 MB
(5000 FT). FREEZING SPRAY SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST PERIOD OF
LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD DEVELOP
AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STORM TIDE COMPARISON IN MLLW

           FEB 8      FEB 9       MDT FS
SANDY HOOK 8.21-1224Z 8.19-1336Z  7.7
ATLNTC CTY 7.28-1236Z 7.27-1330Z  7.0
CAPE MAY   7.93-1348Z 8.18-1354Z  7.7
LEWES      7.09-1342Z 7.26-1406Z  7.0

WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THIS MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT WITH SOME LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING SLIGHTLY GREATER FLOODING COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE. THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN
EXPECTED WIND SHIFT, WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVEL COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD
GET CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR MONMOUTH MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES NEAR RARITAN BAY AND SANDY HOOK.

MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY IN UPPER DELAWARE
BAY WITH THE LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH REEDY POINT DELAWARE.

FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE DECREASING RAPIDLY AT
REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. NO COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NEEDED AT
PHILADELPHIA AT THIS TIME.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY25
BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1141
CLIMATE...1141




000
FXUS61 KPHI 091641
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1141 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH DELMARVA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. AS OF 10 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER AND POINTS NORTH OF CECIL AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAIN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH. COMPLEX FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE AND INTENSITY WITH A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ALOFT AND VERY WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AOB 925 MB. THUS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE. HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE NAM IS
CAPTURING THE FORCING AND QPF BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH IS TOO
ROBUST.

AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST, WE EXPECT SNOW TO
BE MAINTAINED WHERE IT IS FALLING NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MD AND
NORTHERN DE, GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW, SO A WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS DURING TONIGHT, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, AND WITH IT, AND
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET.

A GALE WATCH MAY POST FOR THURSDAY IN OUR 330 PM FORECAST WITH
WEST NORTHWEST INCREASING BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MOMENTUM MIXING TRANSFER TO 850 MB
(5000 FT). FREEZING SPRAY SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST PERIOD OF
LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD DEVELOP
AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STORM TIDE COMPARISON IN MLLW

           FEB 8      FEB 9       MDT FS
SANDY HOOK 8.21-1224Z 8.19-1336Z  7.7
ATLNTC CTY 7.28-1236Z 7.27-1330Z  7.0
CAPE MAY   7.93-1348Z 8.18-1354Z  7.7
LEWES      7.09-1342Z 7.26-1406Z  7.0

WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THIS MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT WITH SOME LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING SLIGHTLY GREATER FLOODING COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE. THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN
EXPECTED WIND SHIFT, WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVEL COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD
GET CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR MONMOUTH MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES NEAR RARITAN BAY AND SANDY HOOK.

MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY IN UPPER DELAWARE
BAY WITH THE LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH REEDY POINT DELAWARE.

FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE DECREASING RAPIDLY AT
REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. NO COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NEEDED AT
PHILADELPHIA AT THIS TIME.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY25
BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1141
CLIMATE...1141





000
FXUS61 KPHI 091641
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1141 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH DELMARVA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. AS OF 10 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER AND POINTS NORTH OF CECIL AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAIN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH. COMPLEX FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE AND INTENSITY WITH A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ALOFT AND VERY WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AOB 925 MB. THUS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE. HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE NAM IS
CAPTURING THE FORCING AND QPF BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH IS TOO
ROBUST.

AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST, WE EXPECT SNOW TO
BE MAINTAINED WHERE IT IS FALLING NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MD AND
NORTHERN DE, GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW, SO A WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS DURING TONIGHT, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, AND WITH IT, AND
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET.

A GALE WATCH MAY POST FOR THURSDAY IN OUR 330 PM FORECAST WITH
WEST NORTHWEST INCREASING BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MOMENTUM MIXING TRANSFER TO 850 MB
(5000 FT). FREEZING SPRAY SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST PERIOD OF
LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD DEVELOP
AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
STORM TIDE COMPARISON IN MLLW

           FEB 8      FEB 9       MDT FS
SANDY HOOK 8.21-1224Z 8.19-1336Z  7.7
ATLNTC CTY 7.28-1236Z 7.27-1330Z  7.0
CAPE MAY   7.93-1348Z 8.18-1354Z  7.7
LEWES      7.09-1342Z 7.26-1406Z  7.0

WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THIS MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT WITH SOME LOCATIONS
EXPERIENCING SLIGHTLY GREATER FLOODING COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE. THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN
EXPECTED WIND SHIFT, WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVEL COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD
GET CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR MONMOUTH MIDDLESEX
COUNTIES NEAR RARITAN BAY AND SANDY HOOK.

MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY IN UPPER DELAWARE
BAY WITH THE LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH REEDY POINT DELAWARE.

FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE DECREASING RAPIDLY AT
REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. NO COASTAL FLOOD WARNING NEEDED AT
PHILADELPHIA AT THIS TIME.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

2015-16 SO FAR   RER 14TH

ABE 8......... -1 1979

ACY 10........ -6 1979

PHL 12........ +2 1979

ILG 12........ -4 1979

RDG 10........ -4-1983

TTN 9.........  0 1916

GED 13........  -7 1979

MPO -1........ -12 1970

ADDITIONALLY...THIS WILL BE WIND DRIVEN COLD WITH MANY AREAS
EXPERIENCING WIND CHILL VALUES OF 15 TO 20 BELOW ZERO...POSSIBLY25
BELOW IN THE HILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1141
CLIMATE...1141





000
FXUS61 KPHI 091614
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1114 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH DELMARVA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. AS OF 10 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER AND POINTS NORTH OF CECIL AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAIN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH. COMPLEX FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE AND INTENSITY WITH A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ALOFT AND VERY WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AOB 925 MB. THUS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE. HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE NAM IS
CAPTURING THE FORCING AND QPF BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH IS TOO
ROBUST.

AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST, WE EXPECT SNOW TO
BE MAINTAINED WHERE IT IS FALLING NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MD AND
NORTHERN DE, GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW, SO A WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS DURING TONIGHT, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, AND WITH IT, AND
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET.

A GALE WATCH MAY POST FOR THURSDAY IN OUR 330 PM FORECAST WITH
WEST NORTHWEST INCREASING BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MOMENTUM MIXING TRANSFER TO 850 MB
(5000 FT). FREEZING SPRAY SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST PERIOD OF
LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD DEVELOP
AS WELL.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THIS
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT WITH SOME
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SLIGHTLY GREATER FLOODING COMPARED TO
MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT, WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING ADVISORY
LEVEL COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING,
THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR
MONMOUTH MIDDLESEX COUNTIES NEAR RARITAN BAY AND SANDY HOOK.

MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY IN UPPER DELAWARE
BAY WITH THE LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH REEDY POINT DELAWARE.

FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF MODERATE. A
DECISION ON AN COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UPGRADE THERE WILL BE MADE
AROUND 1145 AM.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. WE`LL
POST MORE INFORMATION HERE BY 330 PM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 1113A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1113A
CLIMATE...1113A




000
FXUS61 KPHI 091614
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1114 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH DELMARVA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. AS OF 10 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER AND POINTS NORTH OF CECIL AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAIN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH. COMPLEX FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE AND INTENSITY WITH A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ALOFT AND VERY WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AOB 925 MB. THUS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE. HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE NAM IS
CAPTURING THE FORCING AND QPF BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH IS TOO
ROBUST.

AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST, WE EXPECT SNOW TO
BE MAINTAINED WHERE IT IS FALLING NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MD AND
NORTHERN DE, GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW, SO A WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS DURING TONIGHT, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, AND WITH IT, AND
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET.

A GALE WATCH MAY POST FOR THURSDAY IN OUR 330 PM FORECAST WITH
WEST NORTHWEST INCREASING BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MOMENTUM MIXING TRANSFER TO 850 MB
(5000 FT). FREEZING SPRAY SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST PERIOD OF
LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD DEVELOP
AS WELL.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THIS
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT WITH SOME
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SLIGHTLY GREATER FLOODING COMPARED TO
MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT, WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING ADVISORY
LEVEL COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING,
THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR
MONMOUTH MIDDLESEX COUNTIES NEAR RARITAN BAY AND SANDY HOOK.

MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY IN UPPER DELAWARE
BAY WITH THE LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH REEDY POINT DELAWARE.

FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF MODERATE. A
DECISION ON AN COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UPGRADE THERE WILL BE MADE
AROUND 1145 AM.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. WE`LL
POST MORE INFORMATION HERE BY 330 PM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 1113A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1113A
CLIMATE...1113A





000
FXUS61 KPHI 091614
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1114 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
GIVING WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH DELMARVA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. AS OF 10 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER AND POINTS NORTH OF CECIL AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAIN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH. COMPLEX FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE AND INTENSITY WITH A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ALOFT AND VERY WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AOB 925 MB. THUS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE. HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE NAM IS
CAPTURING THE FORCING AND QPF BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH IS TOO
ROBUST.

AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST, WE EXPECT SNOW TO
BE MAINTAINED WHERE IT IS FALLING NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MD AND
NORTHERN DE, GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW, SO A WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE
WINDS DURING TONIGHT, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, AND WITH IT, AND
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH CONFIDENCE
OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET.

A GALE WATCH MAY POST FOR THURSDAY IN OUR 330 PM FORECAST WITH
WEST NORTHWEST INCREASING BENEATH STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MOMENTUM MIXING TRANSFER TO 850 MB
(5000 FT). FREEZING SPRAY SHOULD DEVELOP AS WELL.

NORTHWEST GALES ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE SEASON ARRIVES, POSSIBLY AS COLD AS THE COLDEST PERIOD OF
LAST FEBRUARY. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RATES SHOULD DEVELOP
AS WELL.


&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THIS
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT WITH SOME
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SLIGHTLY GREATER FLOODING COMPARED TO
MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT, WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING ADVISORY
LEVEL COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING,
THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR
MONMOUTH MIDDLESEX COUNTIES NEAR RARITAN BAY AND SANDY HOOK.

MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD DEVELOP SHORTLY IN UPPER DELAWARE
BAY WITH THE LOCATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH REEDY POINT DELAWARE.

FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AROUND
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF MODERATE. A
DECISION ON AN COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UPGRADE THERE WILL BE MADE
AROUND 1145 AM.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
NEAR RECORD COLD IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR AREA SUNDAY
MORNING AND BY FAR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. WE`LL
POST MORE INFORMATION HERE BY 330 PM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 1113A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1113A
CLIMATE...1113A





000
FXUS61 KPHI 091531
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1031 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING
WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH DELMARVA INTO
FAR SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. AS OF 10 AM...LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING
OVER AND POINTS NORTH OF CECIL AND NEW CASTLE COUNTIES WITH LIGHT
RAIN OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH. COMPLEX FORECAST IN TERMS OF PRECIP
TYPE AND INTENSITY WITH A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH ALOFT AND VERY WEAK
WARM AIR ADVECTION AOB 925 MB. THUS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING PTYPE. HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS OFF
TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL MD AND NORTHERN VA, ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL VORT MAX AND MODEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE NAM IS
CAPTURING THE FORCING AND QPF BETTER THAN GFS, WHICH IS TOO
ROBUST.

AS THIS HEAVIER PRECIP PIVOTS IN FROM THE WEST, WE EXPECT SNOW TO
BE MAINTAINED WHERE IT IS FALLING NOW OVER FAR NORTHEAST MD AND
NORTHERN DE, GIVEN THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND EXPECTED EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. TO THE SOUTH OF THIS AREA, WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE TOO
HIGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW, SO A WET SNOW AND RAIN MIX IS EXPECTED
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION RESTRICTED TO GRASSY SURFACES.

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO INCREASE SNOWFALL TOTALS
BY 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA.

HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE WINDS DURING THE
DAY TODAY, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND WITH IT, AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE
AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET. WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT EVEN WITH DECREASING
WAVEHEIGHTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25
KNOTS IS BECOMING LIKELY SATURDAY. THESE GUSTS MAY EVEN REACH GALE
FORCE FOR A TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING OCCURED DURING THIS
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT WITH SOME
LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING GREATER FLOODING COMPARED TO MONDAY
MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES,
AND AN EXPECTED WIND SHIFT, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING COASTAL
FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT
COULD GET CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS FOR THE
OCEANFRONT.

LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AROUND THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS MORNING, AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...FRANCK/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KPHI 091119
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING
WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS DELMARVA IS MAKING PROGRESS
FURTHER NORTH DESPITE MUCH DRIER DEW POINTS NORTH OF DELMARVA. AND
UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS, WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A RAIN AND AND
SNOW MIX. STILL THINK THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE FROM MID DAY
ON, BUT WE MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS AREA.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
MODELS TRENDED WARMER THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SOME (INCLUDING THE
NAM) EVEN SHOWING RAIN POSSIBLE AS FAR NW AS PHILLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE FROM WHAT THE MODELS WERE
SHOWING JUST 24 HOURS AGO. THIS TREND, COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT
HEAVIER SNOW HAS NOT REALLY DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT
(AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH) HAS LEAD TO
SOME CHANGES WITH THE FORECAST. STILL THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE
MOSTLY SNOW AS ONCE THE HEAVIER BANDS DO DEVELOP, TEMPERATURES
COULD QUICKLY DROP TO NEAR THE DEW POINTS WHICH ARE GENERALLY NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
DE AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NJ WHICH MAY SEE PERIODS OF RAIN THIS
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO MOSTLY SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FIRST THE CHANGES TO THE SNOW TOTALS: GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT, AND THE HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY TODAY LEADING TO LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS,
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN DECREASED ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ, HIGH RES MODELS
ARE NOW SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR FRONTOGENETICAL BANDS THIS EVENING
OR LATE TONIGHT. SO INCREASED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA,
ALTHOUGH I`M CONCERNED THAT IF THE MODELS TREND EVEN FURTHER NORTH,
THOSE BANDS MAY MISS OUR REGION ALL TOGETHER.

CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES: GIVEN THE GENERALLY LOWER SNOW TOTALS,
MUCH OF THE AREA THAT WAS IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHESTER AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES WHICH HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEEING MESOSCALE BANDING
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES, THE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT. THE ADVISORY WAS ALSO EXPANDED ON THE NORTHERN END TO
INCLUDE MORRIS COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL BANDING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE WINDS DURING THE
DAY TODAY, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND WITH IT, AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE
AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET. WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT EVEN WITH DECREASING
WAVEHEIGHTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25
KNOTS IS BECOMING LIKELY SATURDAY. THESE GUSTS MAY EVEN REACH GALE
FORCE FOR A TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING, WITH ISOLATED MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITH HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING FOR THE NJ SHORE, DELAWARE
BEACHES, AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE DELAWARE BAY. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER WITH THIS HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED
WIND SHIFT, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS FOR THE OCEANSIDE.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 091119
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING
WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS DELMARVA IS MAKING PROGRESS
FURTHER NORTH DESPITE MUCH DRIER DEW POINTS NORTH OF DELMARVA. AND
UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS, WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A RAIN AND AND
SNOW MIX. STILL THINK THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE FROM MID DAY
ON, BUT WE MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS AREA.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
MODELS TRENDED WARMER THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SOME (INCLUDING THE
NAM) EVEN SHOWING RAIN POSSIBLE AS FAR NW AS PHILLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE FROM WHAT THE MODELS WERE
SHOWING JUST 24 HOURS AGO. THIS TREND, COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT
HEAVIER SNOW HAS NOT REALLY DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT
(AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH) HAS LEAD TO
SOME CHANGES WITH THE FORECAST. STILL THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE
MOSTLY SNOW AS ONCE THE HEAVIER BANDS DO DEVELOP, TEMPERATURES
COULD QUICKLY DROP TO NEAR THE DEW POINTS WHICH ARE GENERALLY NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
DE AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NJ WHICH MAY SEE PERIODS OF RAIN THIS
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO MOSTLY SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FIRST THE CHANGES TO THE SNOW TOTALS: GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT, AND THE HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY TODAY LEADING TO LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS,
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN DECREASED ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ, HIGH RES MODELS
ARE NOW SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR FRONTOGENETICAL BANDS THIS EVENING
OR LATE TONIGHT. SO INCREASED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA,
ALTHOUGH I`M CONCERNED THAT IF THE MODELS TREND EVEN FURTHER NORTH,
THOSE BANDS MAY MISS OUR REGION ALL TOGETHER.

CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES: GIVEN THE GENERALLY LOWER SNOW TOTALS,
MUCH OF THE AREA THAT WAS IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHESTER AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES WHICH HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEEING MESOSCALE BANDING
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES, THE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT. THE ADVISORY WAS ALSO EXPANDED ON THE NORTHERN END TO
INCLUDE MORRIS COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL BANDING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE WINDS DURING THE
DAY TODAY, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND WITH IT, AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE
AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET. WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT EVEN WITH DECREASING
WAVEHEIGHTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25
KNOTS IS BECOMING LIKELY SATURDAY. THESE GUSTS MAY EVEN REACH GALE
FORCE FOR A TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING, WITH ISOLATED MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITH HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING FOR THE NJ SHORE, DELAWARE
BEACHES, AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE DELAWARE BAY. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER WITH THIS HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED
WIND SHIFT, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS FOR THE OCEANSIDE.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 091119
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING
WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM UPDATE...AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS DELMARVA IS MAKING PROGRESS
FURTHER NORTH DESPITE MUCH DRIER DEW POINTS NORTH OF DELMARVA. AND
UNDER THE HEAVIER BANDS, WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEE A RAIN AND AND
SNOW MIX. STILL THINK THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL BE FROM MID DAY
ON, BUT WE MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS AREA.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...
MODELS TRENDED WARMER THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SOME (INCLUDING THE
NAM) EVEN SHOWING RAIN POSSIBLE AS FAR NW AS PHILLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE FROM WHAT THE MODELS WERE
SHOWING JUST 24 HOURS AGO. THIS TREND, COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT
HEAVIER SNOW HAS NOT REALLY DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT
(AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH) HAS LEAD TO
SOME CHANGES WITH THE FORECAST. STILL THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE
MOSTLY SNOW AS ONCE THE HEAVIER BANDS DO DEVELOP, TEMPERATURES
COULD QUICKLY DROP TO NEAR THE DEW POINTS WHICH ARE GENERALLY NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
DE AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NJ WHICH MAY SEE PERIODS OF RAIN THIS
MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO MOSTLY SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FIRST THE CHANGES TO THE SNOW TOTALS: GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT, AND THE HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY TODAY LEADING TO LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS,
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN DECREASED ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ, HIGH RES MODELS
ARE NOW SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR FRONTOGENETICAL BANDS THIS EVENING
OR LATE TONIGHT. SO INCREASED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA,
ALTHOUGH I`M CONCERNED THAT IF THE MODELS TREND EVEN FURTHER NORTH,
THOSE BANDS MAY MISS OUR REGION ALL TOGETHER.

CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES: GIVEN THE GENERALLY LOWER SNOW TOTALS,
MUCH OF THE AREA THAT WAS IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHESTER AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES WHICH HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEEING MESOSCALE BANDING
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES, THE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT. THE ADVISORY WAS ALSO EXPANDED ON THE NORTHERN END TO
INCLUDE MORRIS COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL BANDING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY
FROM 15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE WINDS DURING THE
DAY TODAY, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND WITH IT, AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE
AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET. WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT EVEN WITH DECREASING
WAVEHEIGHTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25
KNOTS IS BECOMING LIKELY SATURDAY. THESE GUSTS MAY EVEN REACH GALE
FORCE FOR A TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING, WITH ISOLATED MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITH HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING FOR THE NJ SHORE, DELAWARE
BEACHES, AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE DELAWARE BAY. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER WITH THIS HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED
WIND SHIFT, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS FOR THE OCEANSIDE.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW, SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 090844
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
WORK EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BEFORE GIVING
WAY ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

MODELS TRENDED WARMER THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SOME (INCLUDING THE NAM)
EVEN SHOWING RAIN POSSIBLE AS FAR NW AS PHILLY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS IS A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE FROM WHAT THE MODELS WERE SHOWING JUST
24 HOURS AGO. THIS TREND, COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT HEAVIER SNOW
HAS NOT REALLY DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT (AMOUNTS SO FAR
HAVE BEEN LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH) HAS LEAD TO SOME CHANGES WITH THE
FORECAST. STILL THINK THAT PRECIP WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW AS ONCE THE
HEAVIER BANDS DO DEVELOP, TEMPERATURES COULD QUICKLY DROP TO NEAR
THE DEW POINTS WHICH ARE GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DE AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NJ
WHICH MAY SEE PERIODS OF RAIN THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO MOSTLY
SNOW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FIRST THE CHANGES TO THE SNOW TOTALS: GIVEN THE LACK OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT, AND THE HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY TODAY LEADING TO LOWER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS,
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN DECREASED ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ, HIGH RES MODELS
ARE NOW SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR FRONTOGENETICAL BANDS THIS EVENING
OR LATE TONIGHT. SO INCREASED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA,
ALTHOUGH I`M CONCERNED THAT IF THE MODELS TREND EVEN FURTHER NORTH,
THOSE BANDS MAY MISS OUR REGION ALL TOGETHER.

CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES: GIVEN THE GENERALLY LOWER SNOW TOTALS,
MUCH OF THE AREA THAT WAS IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHESTER AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES WHICH HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEEING MESOSCALE BANDING
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THOSE TWO COUNTIES, THE WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT. THE ADVISORY WAS ALSO EXPANDED ON THE NORTHERN END TO
INCLUDE MORRIS COUNTY TO ACCOUNT FOR POTENTIAL BANDING OVERNIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...

SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THIS EVENING
EXCEPT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NJ WHERE IT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LIFTS FURTHER NORTH, WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COASTAL
FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...


AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PRESIDENTS DAY
HOLIDAY.

WEDNESDAY: SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
ENDING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER, A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE LEFT ACROSS THE REGION
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH STEEPING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND TT
MODELED NEAR 50. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE PRESENT TO FORM A FEW
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS EASTERN PA AND NW NJ HELPING TO AID POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT. A LOOK AT BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FAVORABLE MIXING AS WELL WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME NORTHWEST WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO WHAT MET AND MAV GUIDANCE HAS DUE TO SOME SNOW COVER AND
THE STRONG CAA PUSH DURING THE DAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: OUR REGION WILL BE
SITUATED BETWEEN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LEAD TO CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO THE REGION. THE WIND DIRECTION ALSO LOOKS TO SEND MOISTURE OFF
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE REGION AS WELL. INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS THAN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD STEEPEN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE CHANCES FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE. ANY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION COULD LEAD TO A FEW SLICK SPOTS AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING QUITE A BIT BELOW FREEZING. CLOUDS AND WIND SHOULD KEEP THE
LOW TEMPERATURES UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SAY ONLY THE 10`S TO AROUND 20
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 20`S ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE
REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 10`S REGIONWIDE
AND CONTINUED TO NUDGE THEM SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WITH A CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG IT. THIS
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELING IS
STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE IF THE MORE CLIPPER LIKE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP INTO A COASTAL LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. RIGHT NOW ABOUT A
THIRD OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUITES ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF
THE REGION. THE OTHER TWO THIRDS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PLUS THE 00Z
CMC, UKMET AND GFS FORM A LOW PRESSURE MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
LESS LIKELY COASTAL LOW FORMATION SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION. HOWEVER,
WITH THE BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE STAYING FURTHER OFFSHORE WILL JUST
ADD A GENERIC LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN IF THE LOW FORMS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, IT WILL BE A COLD AND WINDY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NW
FLOW SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS IN EASTERN PA AND NW NJ, SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: ANOTHER POTENT AREA OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH THE COLDEST SHOT OF
AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR. 850 MB LOOK TO DIVE WELL BELOW -20C ACROSS
MOST OF REGION AS CURRENTLY MODELED. AS IN OTHER PERIODS WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN MOST
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SETS. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS, PUSHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SPOTS.

PRESIDENTS DAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL GIVE WAY TO A STORM SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY MODELED TO
FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT A
TYPICAL GFS BIAS IS AT WORK FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND BEING TO PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE
TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE ECMWF, UKMET AND CMC SEEM TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OF A BROADER TROUGH WHICH GIVES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH MORE OF A CHANCE TO BE INVOLVED IN THE PATTERN. THIS ALLOWS
FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM TO FORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY WILL START DRY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. TIMING CAN
ALWAYS CHANGE BY 24 HOURS OR MORE THIS FAR OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REBOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
GIVEN THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL PRESENT
AND THE VARIOUS FEATURES INVOLVED WILL NOT EVEN SAMPLED BY
OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOWEST CONDITIONS, INCLUDING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SNOW BANDS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

AFTER 00Z, SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, AND WITH IT, EXPECT IMPROVING VISIBILITIES AND EVENTUALLY
(LIKELY NOT UNTIL AFTER 06Z) IMPROVING CEILING CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR, POSSIBILE MVFR RESTRICTIONS
IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY FROM
15-25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...

SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A LULL IN THE WINDS DURING THE
DAY TODAY, BUT A SHIFT TO WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, AND WITH IT, AND INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ONCE
AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...

THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TILL 6PM WEDNESDAY BASED ON A HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND SEAS STAYING AROUND FIVE FEET. WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT EVEN WITH DECREASING
WAVEHEIGHTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25
KNOTS IS BECOMING LIKELY SATURDAY. THESE GUSTS MAY EVEN REACH GALE
FORCE FOR A TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING, WITH ISOLATED MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITH HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING FOR THE NJ SHORE, DELAWARE
BEACHES, AND LOCATIONS ALONG THE DELAWARE BAY. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER WITH THIS HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. THANKS TO DECREASING ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, AND AN EXPECTED
WIND SHIFT, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT COULD GET CLOSE TO MINOR FLOODING
THRESHOLDS FOR THE OCEANSIDE.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF THE
CHEASPEAKE BAY WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME RISK THAT MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
COULD BE REACHED WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW,
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR NOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWOUT TIDES IS PRESENT FOR THE THURSDAY LOW
TIDAL CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-101-
     102.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     NJZ008>010-012>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ015-017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     DEZ001>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 090238
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OUT TO SEA
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLDER AIRMASS THEN SETTLES IN FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
WILL USHER IN PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN
UNCHANGED ATTM.

A RATHER CHAOTIC SETUP TONIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWED NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES REVOLVING AROUND THIS TROUGH, WITH A
WEAK ONE NOW MOVING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. A MUCH STRONGER SHORT
WAVE IS IN THE VICINITY OF KENTUCKY EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS
FEATURE IS MORE EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE,
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH
EVEN A WEAKER ONE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. ON A SIDE NOTE, THE
RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SO FAR IS SHOWING WHAT APPEARS TO BE SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SEEDING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW IN THE OCEAN TO MONMOUTH COUNTY AREAS.

THE SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE EVOLUTION THROUGH THE NIGHT IS TRICKY AS WE
START A SERIES OF INCOMING SHORT WAVES, WHICH WILL LEAD TO PERIODS
OF ENHANCED LIFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY
THE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST ONE GOES. THE THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUCH
THAT SOME RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OCCURS FOR AWHILE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS JUST ENOUGH BOUNDARY WARMTH HANGS ON A
LITTLE LONGER. SOME OF THESE AREAS THAT ALREADY STARTED WITH LIGHT
RAIN HAS GONE OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO STEEPEN SOME OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MORE COOLING. THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES OF MARYLAND AND
DELAWARE TO PERHAPS FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY MAY HAVE MIXING
ISSUES FOR QUITE AWHILE. AS A RESULT, WE ADDED MORE RAIN AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR SOME OF THESE PLACES FOR AWHILE. FARTHER TO THE
NORTH, LOWER DEW POINTS ALONG WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT
IN ALL SNOW /AFTER A BRIEF START AS SOME RAIN OR MIX INTO
PHILADELPHIA/.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY FOCUSED ON SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING THE
AREA AND BOOSTING THE VERTICAL MOTION AT TIMES. AS A RESULT, PERIODS
OF SNOW/RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITH LESSER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS. THE POPS WERE LOWERED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR
AWHILE /NOTING MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS THERE THIS EVENING SO FAR/. IT
IS POSSIBLE THE ONGOING SURGE IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACKS OFF FOR
AWHILE OVERNIGHT.

A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TOWARD MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR A BURST OF
SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE REGION, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LIFT FROM THE
SURFACE TROUGH, ALONG WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY, WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
ENHANCED SNOWFALL DURING THE DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. IT
LOOKS TO NOT SNOW THE ENTIRE TIME, BUT WHEN IT DOES SNOW THERE COULD
BE SOME HEAVIER BURSTS ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN LATER IN
THE DAY. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS, A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL
OCCUR AT TIMES WHICH WOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAYTIME.

IT APPEARS THAT SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY
CONTINUES TO KEY IN ON A STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT ARRIVES LATER IN
THE DAY. THIS FEATURE BOOSTS THE VERTICAL MOTION QUITE A BIT, WHICH
IS ALSO TIED TO SOME AREAS OF 800-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS, AND IF THIS
BECOMES REALITY THEN COMBINED WITH GOOD MOISTURE WITHIN THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE THE SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE TOWARD EVENING. THIS
MAY END UP BEING THE BEST CHC OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS MANY
AREAS. DURING TIMES OF LIGHTER SNOW, ROADWAYS /TREATED ONES/ SHOULD
BE IN GOOD SHAPE, HOWEVER WE WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT HEAVIER
SNOWFALL RATES WILL ALLOW FOR DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION, THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE KEY IN WHERE
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOW STARTS TO SET UP DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BATTLE THIS PLACEMENT OUT,
HOWEVER OUR LATEST SNOWFALL GRAPHIC DEPICTS WHERE WE CURRENTLY
THINK THE HEAVIEST AXIS WILL BE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER TROF/LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS OVER THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME. THE SNOW EVENT WILL BE IN PROGRESS OVER THE
AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...TUES EVE...ALTHO
IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW MAY HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BY
THAT TIME. THIS UPPER SYS IS FAIRLY COMPLEX WITH A NUMBER OF
SHRTWV/VORT CENTERS ROTATING AROUND IT SO IT IS SMWHT DIFFICULT TO
SAY QUITE WHEN AND WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL FALL. OVERALL THIS
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR STORM WITH NO STRONG SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT AND MAINLY JUST LIGHT OR MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES...AS
NOTED ABOVE. FOR TOTAL SNOW...MOST GUIDANCE INCLUDING WPC SEEMED
TO INDICATE A WEST-EAST BAND OF GREATER SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF OUR FCST AREA AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN OUR TOTAL SNOW GRID.

THE SNOW SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY ENDED BY EARLY WED MORNING...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WED SO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. THERE WILL BE
DECENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY RESULTING IN TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE WINTER EXPECTED AT
THAT TIME. THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY HOWEVER THERE
COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
SOME WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, TAKING THE LONGEST TO
REACH KABE AND KTTN. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL START FROM KPHL ON SOUTH
AND EAST, HOWEVER THIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW. THE SNOW WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO IFR WITH PERHAPS A BURST
OF SNOW OCCURRING ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHEAST.

TUESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF SNOW, HOWEVER ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF KPHL THE CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR AWHILE. WE
ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SNOW TOWARD THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE AXIS OF THIS HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEPEND ON
THE POSITIONING OF A BOUNDARY THAT WILL BISECT OUR REGION. OUR
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS ON THE LOWER SIDE,
HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR MOSTLY EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE DAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MOSTLY 10-15 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH
LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED TUE NIGHT BUT TAPERING
OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WED MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS
AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIFR IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS DEVELOP.
LIGHT WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. BREEZY WLY
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR AND BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KT.

SATURDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS WINDS
BECOMING NW AND GUSTING TO 30 KT OR GREATER.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TODAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE FIRST
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY, BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED. ALSO, WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW LOW
STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS INCREASING AGAIN TO SCA AND POSSIBLY GALE
CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE THIS EVENING. THE MINOR FLOODING WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT AND IT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP DELAWARE BAY AND INTO THE
TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER.

TUESDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE...WITH A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW AND
HIGHER WAVE ACTION, WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WITH
POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DE AND NJ
OCEANFRONT DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. FOR DELAWARE BAY, THERE IS
A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE DE AND NJ
OCEANFRONT AND DELAWARE BAY THROUGH THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.
WE EXPECT MINOR FLOODING FOR TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER
AND ITS TIDAL TRIBUTARIES WHEN HIGH TIDE OCCURS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES THERE.

OVERALL, FOR THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT, INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, WE
EXPECT THE GREATEST IMPACT WITH THE HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING
COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS TWO HIGH TIDES. IN FACT, THERE WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ROAD FLOODING WITH ROAD CLOSURES IN SOME AREAS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGE TO MORE VULNERABLE
STRUCTURES, ESPECIALLY FACTORING IN BREAKING WAVES OF 4 TO 8 FEET,
WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. IN PARTICULAR,
SOME BEACH AREAS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE DUE TO BEACH
EROSION AND DAMAGE TO SHORE STRUCTURES THAT OCCURRED IN LATE
JANUARY, WITH EMPHASIS ON CAPE MAY COUNTY NJ AND THE DE
OCEANFRONT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     101-102-104-106.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ009-
     010-012>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016>025-
     027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ019-
     020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE/ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/GORSE
MARINE...AMC/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANCK/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 090238
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OUT TO SEA
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLDER AIRMASS THEN SETTLES IN FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
WILL USHER IN PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN
UNCHANGED ATTM.

A RATHER CHAOTIC SETUP TONIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWED NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES REVOLVING AROUND THIS TROUGH, WITH A
WEAK ONE NOW MOVING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. A MUCH STRONGER SHORT
WAVE IS IN THE VICINITY OF KENTUCKY EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS
FEATURE IS MORE EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE,
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH
EVEN A WEAKER ONE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. ON A SIDE NOTE, THE
RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SO FAR IS SHOWING WHAT APPEARS TO BE SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SEEDING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW IN THE OCEAN TO MONMOUTH COUNTY AREAS.

THE SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE EVOLUTION THROUGH THE NIGHT IS TRICKY AS WE
START A SERIES OF INCOMING SHORT WAVES, WHICH WILL LEAD TO PERIODS
OF ENHANCED LIFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY
THE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST ONE GOES. THE THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUCH
THAT SOME RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OCCURS FOR AWHILE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS JUST ENOUGH BOUNDARY WARMTH HANGS ON A
LITTLE LONGER. SOME OF THESE AREAS THAT ALREADY STARTED WITH LIGHT
RAIN HAS GONE OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO STEEPEN SOME OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MORE COOLING. THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES OF MARYLAND AND
DELAWARE TO PERHAPS FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY MAY HAVE MIXING
ISSUES FOR QUITE AWHILE. AS A RESULT, WE ADDED MORE RAIN AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR SOME OF THESE PLACES FOR AWHILE. FARTHER TO THE
NORTH, LOWER DEW POINTS ALONG WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT
IN ALL SNOW /AFTER A BRIEF START AS SOME RAIN OR MIX INTO
PHILADELPHIA/.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY FOCUSED ON SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING THE
AREA AND BOOSTING THE VERTICAL MOTION AT TIMES. AS A RESULT, PERIODS
OF SNOW/RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITH LESSER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS. THE POPS WERE LOWERED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR
AWHILE /NOTING MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS THERE THIS EVENING SO FAR/. IT
IS POSSIBLE THE ONGOING SURGE IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACKS OFF FOR
AWHILE OVERNIGHT.

A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TOWARD MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR A BURST OF
SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE REGION, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LIFT FROM THE
SURFACE TROUGH, ALONG WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY, WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
ENHANCED SNOWFALL DURING THE DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. IT
LOOKS TO NOT SNOW THE ENTIRE TIME, BUT WHEN IT DOES SNOW THERE COULD
BE SOME HEAVIER BURSTS ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN LATER IN
THE DAY. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS, A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL
OCCUR AT TIMES WHICH WOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAYTIME.

IT APPEARS THAT SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY
CONTINUES TO KEY IN ON A STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT ARRIVES LATER IN
THE DAY. THIS FEATURE BOOSTS THE VERTICAL MOTION QUITE A BIT, WHICH
IS ALSO TIED TO SOME AREAS OF 800-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS, AND IF THIS
BECOMES REALITY THEN COMBINED WITH GOOD MOISTURE WITHIN THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE THE SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE TOWARD EVENING. THIS
MAY END UP BEING THE BEST CHC OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS MANY
AREAS. DURING TIMES OF LIGHTER SNOW, ROADWAYS /TREATED ONES/ SHOULD
BE IN GOOD SHAPE, HOWEVER WE WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT HEAVIER
SNOWFALL RATES WILL ALLOW FOR DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION, THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE KEY IN WHERE
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOW STARTS TO SET UP DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BATTLE THIS PLACEMENT OUT,
HOWEVER OUR LATEST SNOWFALL GRAPHIC DEPICTS WHERE WE CURRENTLY
THINK THE HEAVIEST AXIS WILL BE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER TROF/LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS OVER THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME. THE SNOW EVENT WILL BE IN PROGRESS OVER THE
AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...TUES EVE...ALTHO
IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW MAY HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BY
THAT TIME. THIS UPPER SYS IS FAIRLY COMPLEX WITH A NUMBER OF
SHRTWV/VORT CENTERS ROTATING AROUND IT SO IT IS SMWHT DIFFICULT TO
SAY QUITE WHEN AND WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL FALL. OVERALL THIS
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR STORM WITH NO STRONG SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT AND MAINLY JUST LIGHT OR MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES...AS
NOTED ABOVE. FOR TOTAL SNOW...MOST GUIDANCE INCLUDING WPC SEEMED
TO INDICATE A WEST-EAST BAND OF GREATER SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF OUR FCST AREA AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN OUR TOTAL SNOW GRID.

THE SNOW SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY ENDED BY EARLY WED MORNING...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WED SO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. THERE WILL BE
DECENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY RESULTING IN TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE WINTER EXPECTED AT
THAT TIME. THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY HOWEVER THERE
COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
SOME WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, TAKING THE LONGEST TO
REACH KABE AND KTTN. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL START FROM KPHL ON SOUTH
AND EAST, HOWEVER THIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW. THE SNOW WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO IFR WITH PERHAPS A BURST
OF SNOW OCCURRING ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHEAST.

TUESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF SNOW, HOWEVER ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF KPHL THE CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR AWHILE. WE
ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SNOW TOWARD THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE AXIS OF THIS HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEPEND ON
THE POSITIONING OF A BOUNDARY THAT WILL BISECT OUR REGION. OUR
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS ON THE LOWER SIDE,
HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR MOSTLY EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE DAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MOSTLY 10-15 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH
LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED TUE NIGHT BUT TAPERING
OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WED MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS
AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIFR IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS DEVELOP.
LIGHT WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. BREEZY WLY
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR AND BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KT.

SATURDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS WINDS
BECOMING NW AND GUSTING TO 30 KT OR GREATER.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TODAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE FIRST
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY, BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED. ALSO, WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW LOW
STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS INCREASING AGAIN TO SCA AND POSSIBLY GALE
CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE THIS EVENING. THE MINOR FLOODING WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT AND IT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP DELAWARE BAY AND INTO THE
TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER.

TUESDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE...WITH A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW AND
HIGHER WAVE ACTION, WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WITH
POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DE AND NJ
OCEANFRONT DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. FOR DELAWARE BAY, THERE IS
A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE DE AND NJ
OCEANFRONT AND DELAWARE BAY THROUGH THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.
WE EXPECT MINOR FLOODING FOR TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER
AND ITS TIDAL TRIBUTARIES WHEN HIGH TIDE OCCURS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES THERE.

OVERALL, FOR THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT, INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, WE
EXPECT THE GREATEST IMPACT WITH THE HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING
COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS TWO HIGH TIDES. IN FACT, THERE WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ROAD FLOODING WITH ROAD CLOSURES IN SOME AREAS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGE TO MORE VULNERABLE
STRUCTURES, ESPECIALLY FACTORING IN BREAKING WAVES OF 4 TO 8 FEET,
WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. IN PARTICULAR,
SOME BEACH AREAS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE DUE TO BEACH
EROSION AND DAMAGE TO SHORE STRUCTURES THAT OCCURRED IN LATE
JANUARY, WITH EMPHASIS ON CAPE MAY COUNTY NJ AND THE DE
OCEANFRONT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     101-102-104-106.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ009-
     010-012>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016>025-
     027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ019-
     020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE/ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/GORSE
MARINE...AMC/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANCK/IOVINO





000
FXUS61 KPHI 090238
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OUT TO SEA
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLDER AIRMASS THEN SETTLES IN FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
WILL USHER IN PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN
UNCHANGED ATTM.

A RATHER CHAOTIC SETUP TONIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWED NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES REVOLVING AROUND THIS TROUGH, WITH A
WEAK ONE NOW MOVING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. A MUCH STRONGER SHORT
WAVE IS IN THE VICINITY OF KENTUCKY EARLY THIS EVENING AND THIS
FEATURE IS MORE EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AT THE SURFACE,
WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH
EVEN A WEAKER ONE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. ON A SIDE NOTE, THE
RADAR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SO FAR IS SHOWING WHAT APPEARS TO BE SOME
ATLANTIC MOISTURE SEEDING IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST FLOW IN THE OCEAN TO MONMOUTH COUNTY AREAS.

THE SYNOPTIC/MESOSCALE EVOLUTION THROUGH THE NIGHT IS TRICKY AS WE
START A SERIES OF INCOMING SHORT WAVES, WHICH WILL LEAD TO PERIODS
OF ENHANCED LIFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY
THE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST ONE GOES. THE THERMAL PROFILES ARE SUCH
THAT SOME RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OCCURS FOR AWHILE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS JUST ENOUGH BOUNDARY WARMTH HANGS ON A
LITTLE LONGER. SOME OF THESE AREAS THAT ALREADY STARTED WITH LIGHT
RAIN HAS GONE OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BEGIN TO STEEPEN SOME OVERNIGHT AND THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MORE COOLING. THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES OF MARYLAND AND
DELAWARE TO PERHAPS FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY MAY HAVE MIXING
ISSUES FOR QUITE AWHILE. AS A RESULT, WE ADDED MORE RAIN AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR SOME OF THESE PLACES FOR AWHILE. FARTHER TO THE
NORTH, LOWER DEW POINTS ALONG WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT SHOULD RESULT
IN ALL SNOW /AFTER A BRIEF START AS SOME RAIN OR MIX INTO
PHILADELPHIA/.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY FOCUSED ON SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING THE
AREA AND BOOSTING THE VERTICAL MOTION AT TIMES. AS A RESULT, PERIODS
OF SNOW/RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITH LESSER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS. THE POPS WERE LOWERED ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR
AWHILE /NOTING MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS THERE THIS EVENING SO FAR/. IT
IS POSSIBLE THE ONGOING SURGE IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACKS OFF FOR
AWHILE OVERNIGHT.

A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORT WAVE TOWARD MORNING MAY ALLOW FOR A BURST OF
SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE REGION, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS, THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AS LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE SLOWLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LIFT FROM THE
SURFACE TROUGH, ALONG WITH A STRONGER SHORT WAVE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY, WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE IN THE
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE AND IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
ENHANCED SNOWFALL DURING THE DAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. IT
LOOKS TO NOT SNOW THE ENTIRE TIME, BUT WHEN IT DOES SNOW THERE COULD
BE SOME HEAVIER BURSTS ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN LATER IN
THE DAY. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS, A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL
OCCUR AT TIMES WHICH WOULD LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAYTIME.

IT APPEARS THAT SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY
CONTINUES TO KEY IN ON A STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT ARRIVES LATER IN
THE DAY. THIS FEATURE BOOSTS THE VERTICAL MOTION QUITE A BIT, WHICH
IS ALSO TIED TO SOME AREAS OF 800-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS, AND IF THIS
BECOMES REALITY THEN COMBINED WITH GOOD MOISTURE WITHIN THE SNOW
GROWTH ZONE THE SNOWFALL RATES WILL INCREASE TOWARD EVENING. THIS
MAY END UP BEING THE BEST CHC OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS MANY
AREAS. DURING TIMES OF LIGHTER SNOW, ROADWAYS /TREATED ONES/ SHOULD
BE IN GOOD SHAPE, HOWEVER WE WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT HEAVIER
SNOWFALL RATES WILL ALLOW FOR DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION, THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE KEY IN WHERE
THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOW STARTS TO SET UP DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BATTLE THIS PLACEMENT OUT,
HOWEVER OUR LATEST SNOWFALL GRAPHIC DEPICTS WHERE WE CURRENTLY
THINK THE HEAVIEST AXIS WILL BE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER TROF/LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS OVER THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME. THE SNOW EVENT WILL BE IN PROGRESS OVER THE
AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...TUES EVE...ALTHO
IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW MAY HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BY
THAT TIME. THIS UPPER SYS IS FAIRLY COMPLEX WITH A NUMBER OF
SHRTWV/VORT CENTERS ROTATING AROUND IT SO IT IS SMWHT DIFFICULT TO
SAY QUITE WHEN AND WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL FALL. OVERALL THIS
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR STORM WITH NO STRONG SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT AND MAINLY JUST LIGHT OR MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES...AS
NOTED ABOVE. FOR TOTAL SNOW...MOST GUIDANCE INCLUDING WPC SEEMED
TO INDICATE A WEST-EAST BAND OF GREATER SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF OUR FCST AREA AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN OUR TOTAL SNOW GRID.

THE SNOW SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY ENDED BY EARLY WED MORNING...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WED SO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. THERE WILL BE
DECENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY RESULTING IN TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE WINTER EXPECTED AT
THAT TIME. THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY HOWEVER THERE
COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
SOME WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, TAKING THE LONGEST TO
REACH KABE AND KTTN. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL START FROM KPHL ON SOUTH
AND EAST, HOWEVER THIS IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SNOW. THE SNOW WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO IFR WITH PERHAPS A BURST
OF SNOW OCCURRING ESPECIALLY TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHEAST.

TUESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF SNOW, HOWEVER ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF KPHL THE CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR AWHILE. WE
ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SNOW TOWARD THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE AXIS OF THIS HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEPEND ON
THE POSITIONING OF A BOUNDARY THAT WILL BISECT OUR REGION. OUR
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS ON THE LOWER SIDE,
HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR MOSTLY EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE DAY. NORTHEAST WINDS MOSTLY 10-15 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH
LATER IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED TUE NIGHT BUT TAPERING
OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WED MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS
AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIFR IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS DEVELOP.
LIGHT WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. BREEZY WLY
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR AND BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KT.

SATURDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS WINDS
BECOMING NW AND GUSTING TO 30 KT OR GREATER.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TODAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE FIRST
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY, BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED. ALSO, WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW LOW
STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS INCREASING AGAIN TO SCA AND POSSIBLY GALE
CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE THIS EVENING. THE MINOR FLOODING WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT AND IT WILL WORK ITS WAY UP DELAWARE BAY AND INTO THE
TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER.

TUESDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE...WITH A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW AND
HIGHER WAVE ACTION, WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WITH
POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DE AND NJ
OCEANFRONT DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. FOR DELAWARE BAY, THERE IS
A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE DE AND NJ
OCEANFRONT AND DELAWARE BAY THROUGH THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE.
WE EXPECT MINOR FLOODING FOR TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE DELAWARE RIVER
AND ITS TIDAL TRIBUTARIES WHEN HIGH TIDE OCCURS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES THERE.

OVERALL, FOR THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT, INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, WE
EXPECT THE GREATEST IMPACT WITH THE HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING
COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS TWO HIGH TIDES. IN FACT, THERE WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ROAD FLOODING WITH ROAD CLOSURES IN SOME AREAS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGE TO MORE VULNERABLE
STRUCTURES, ESPECIALLY FACTORING IN BREAKING WAVES OF 4 TO 8 FEET,
WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. IN PARTICULAR,
SOME BEACH AREAS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE DUE TO BEACH
EROSION AND DAMAGE TO SHORE STRUCTURES THAT OCCURRED IN LATE
JANUARY, WITH EMPHASIS ON CAPE MAY COUNTY NJ AND THE DE
OCEANFRONT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-
     061-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     101-102-104-106.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ009-
     010-012>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016>025-
     027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ019-
     020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE/ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/GORSE
MARINE...AMC/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANCK/IOVINO





000
FXUS61 KPHI 082336
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
636 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OUT TO SEA
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLDER AIRMASS THEN SETTLES IN FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
WILL USHER IN PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM
THE AREA TONIGHT, ANOTHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT, WHICH WILL HELP LEAD TO AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH TOWARD
THE GULF COAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STRETCH OUT INTO MORE OF A SURFACE TROUGH
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED LIFT
FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH AND VORTICITY IMPULSES, COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING
SNOWFALL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DELMARVA WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES
COULD FALL THROUGH DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE COASTAL
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE COMBINED LIFT FROM THE
SURFACE TROUGH, ALONG WITH A STRONGER VORTICITY IMPULSE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY, WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE IN
THE DENDRITIC ZONE AND IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
SNOWFALL DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. IT MAY NOT SNOW THE
ENTIRE TIME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, BUT WHEN IT DOES SNOW, THERE
COULD BE A FEW HEAVIER PERIODS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES COULD
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS,
SNOWFALL COLD CHANGE OVER AND/OR MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE
DAY WHICH WOULD LIMIT THEIR ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER TROF/LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS OVER THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME. THE SNOW EVENT WILL BE IN PROGRESS OVER THE
AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...TUES EVE...ALTHO
IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW MAY HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BY
THAT TIME. THIS UPPER SYS IS FAIRLY COMPLEX WITH A NUMBER OF
SHRTWV/VORT CENTERS ROTATING AROUND IT SO IT IS SMWHT DIFFICULT TO
SAY QUITE WHEN AND WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL FALL. OVERALL THIS
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR STORM WITH NO STRONG SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT AND MAINLY JUST LIGHT OR MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES...AS
NOTED ABOVE. FOR TOTAL SNOW...MOST GUIDANCE INCLUDING WPC SEEMED
TO INDICATE A WEST-EAST BAND OF GREATER SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF OUR FCST AREA AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN OUR TOTAL SNOW GRID.

THE SNOW SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY ENDED BY EARLY WED MORNING...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WED SO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. THERE WILL BE
DECENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY RESULTING IN TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE WINTER EXPECTED AT
THAT TIME. THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY HOWEVER THERE
COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR BY LATE THIS EVENING, THEN
MAINLY IFR OVERNIGHT. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE REGION STARTING LATER THIS EVENING, WITH MUCH OF IT
FOCUSED FROM KABE TO KPNE TO KACY ON SOUTH AND WEST. THE SNOW WILL
LOWER THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH PERHAPS A BURST OF SNOW
OCCURRING TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

TUESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF SNOW, HOWEVER ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF KPHL THE CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR AWHILE. WE
ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SNOW TOWARD THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE AXIS OF THIS HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEPEND ON
THE POSITIONING OF A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY. OUR CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER IT
DOES APPEAR MOSTLY EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN LATER IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS MOSTLY 10-15 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH LATER IN THE
DAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED TUE NIGHT BUT TAPERING
OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WED MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS
AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIFR IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS DEVELOP.
LIGHT WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. BREEZY WLY
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR AND BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KT.

SATURDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS WINDS
BECOMING NW AND GUSTING TO 30 KT OR GREATER.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TODAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE FIRST
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY, BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED. ALSO, WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW LOW
STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS INCREASING AGAIN TO SCA AND POSSIBLY GALE
CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE...
WITH RENEWED NORTHEAST FLOW AND WAVE ACTION, WIDESPREAD MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT DURING
THE HIGH TIDE AROUND 700 PM TO 8PM THIS EVENING, IN SPITE OF THE
LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WHERE HIGH TIDE IS
BETWEEN 11PM AND MIDNIGHT, EXPECT MINOR FLOODING WITH POCKETS OF
MODERATE FLOODING, PARTICULARLY WITH RESIDUAL HIGH WATER LEVELS
AND EKMAN TRANSPORT. THUS, A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY.
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER AND ITS TIDAL TRIBUTARIES WHEN HIGH TIDE OCCURS
AROUND 2 AM TUESDAY, INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA, WHERE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

OVERALL, FOR THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT, WE EXPECT SIMILAR FLOODING
TONIGHT, COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. FOR DELAWARE BAY,
WE EXPECT GREATER FLOODING TONIGHT COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE WITH WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING AND POCKETS OF MODERATE
FLOODING.

TUESDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE...
WITH A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW AND HIGHER WAVE ACTION, WIDESPREAD
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT DURING THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE AROUND 730 AM TO 830 AM. FOR DELAWARE BAY, THERE IS A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE BETWEEN
11 AM AND 12 PM. THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT AND DELAWARE BAY FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE. WE ALSO EXPECT MINOR FLOODING FOR TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER AND ITS TIDAL TRIBUTARIES WHEN HIGH TIDE OCCURS
AROUND 2 PM TUESDAY, INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA, WHERE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

OVERALL, FOR THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT, INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY,
WE EXPECT THE GREATEST IMPACT WITH THE HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING
COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS TWO HIGH TIDES. IN FACT, THERE WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ROAD FLOODING WITH ROAD CLOSURES IN SOME AREAS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGE TO MORE VULNERABLE
STRUCTURES, ESPECIALLY FACTORING IN NEARSHORE WAVES OF 5 TO 10 FEET,
WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. IN PARTICULAR,
SOME BEACH AREAS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE DUE TO BEACH
EROSION AND DAMAGE TO SHORE STRUCTURES THAT OCCURRED IN LATE JANUARY,
WITH EMPHASIS ON CAPE MAY COUNTY NJ AND THE DE OCEANFRONT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-061-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101-102-104-106.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016>025-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC/GORSE
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/GORSE
MARINE...AMC/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 082336
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
636 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OUT TO SEA
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLDER AIRMASS THEN SETTLES IN FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
WILL USHER IN PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM
THE AREA TONIGHT, ANOTHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT, WHICH WILL HELP LEAD TO AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH TOWARD
THE GULF COAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STRETCH OUT INTO MORE OF A SURFACE TROUGH
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED LIFT
FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH AND VORTICITY IMPULSES, COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING
SNOWFALL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DELMARVA WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES
COULD FALL THROUGH DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE COASTAL
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE COMBINED LIFT FROM THE
SURFACE TROUGH, ALONG WITH A STRONGER VORTICITY IMPULSE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY, WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE IN
THE DENDRITIC ZONE AND IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
SNOWFALL DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. IT MAY NOT SNOW THE
ENTIRE TIME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, BUT WHEN IT DOES SNOW, THERE
COULD BE A FEW HEAVIER PERIODS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES COULD
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS,
SNOWFALL COLD CHANGE OVER AND/OR MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE
DAY WHICH WOULD LIMIT THEIR ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER TROF/LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS OVER THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME. THE SNOW EVENT WILL BE IN PROGRESS OVER THE
AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...TUES EVE...ALTHO
IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW MAY HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BY
THAT TIME. THIS UPPER SYS IS FAIRLY COMPLEX WITH A NUMBER OF
SHRTWV/VORT CENTERS ROTATING AROUND IT SO IT IS SMWHT DIFFICULT TO
SAY QUITE WHEN AND WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL FALL. OVERALL THIS
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR STORM WITH NO STRONG SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT AND MAINLY JUST LIGHT OR MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES...AS
NOTED ABOVE. FOR TOTAL SNOW...MOST GUIDANCE INCLUDING WPC SEEMED
TO INDICATE A WEST-EAST BAND OF GREATER SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF OUR FCST AREA AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN OUR TOTAL SNOW GRID.

THE SNOW SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY ENDED BY EARLY WED MORNING...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WED SO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. THERE WILL BE
DECENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY RESULTING IN TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE WINTER EXPECTED AT
THAT TIME. THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY HOWEVER THERE
COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR BY LATE THIS EVENING, THEN
MAINLY IFR OVERNIGHT. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE REGION STARTING LATER THIS EVENING, WITH MUCH OF IT
FOCUSED FROM KABE TO KPNE TO KACY ON SOUTH AND WEST. THE SNOW WILL
LOWER THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH PERHAPS A BURST OF SNOW
OCCURRING TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

TUESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF SNOW, HOWEVER ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF KPHL THE CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR AWHILE. WE
ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SNOW TOWARD THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE AXIS OF THIS HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEPEND ON
THE POSITIONING OF A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY. OUR CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER IT
DOES APPEAR MOSTLY EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN LATER IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS MOSTLY 10-15 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH LATER IN THE
DAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED TUE NIGHT BUT TAPERING
OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WED MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS
AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIFR IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS DEVELOP.
LIGHT WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. BREEZY WLY
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR AND BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KT.

SATURDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS WINDS
BECOMING NW AND GUSTING TO 30 KT OR GREATER.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TODAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE FIRST
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY, BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED. ALSO, WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW LOW
STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS INCREASING AGAIN TO SCA AND POSSIBLY GALE
CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE...
WITH RENEWED NORTHEAST FLOW AND WAVE ACTION, WIDESPREAD MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT DURING
THE HIGH TIDE AROUND 700 PM TO 8PM THIS EVENING, IN SPITE OF THE
LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WHERE HIGH TIDE IS
BETWEEN 11PM AND MIDNIGHT, EXPECT MINOR FLOODING WITH POCKETS OF
MODERATE FLOODING, PARTICULARLY WITH RESIDUAL HIGH WATER LEVELS
AND EKMAN TRANSPORT. THUS, A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY.
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER AND ITS TIDAL TRIBUTARIES WHEN HIGH TIDE OCCURS
AROUND 2 AM TUESDAY, INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA, WHERE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

OVERALL, FOR THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT, WE EXPECT SIMILAR FLOODING
TONIGHT, COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. FOR DELAWARE BAY,
WE EXPECT GREATER FLOODING TONIGHT COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE WITH WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING AND POCKETS OF MODERATE
FLOODING.

TUESDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE...
WITH A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW AND HIGHER WAVE ACTION, WIDESPREAD
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT DURING THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE AROUND 730 AM TO 830 AM. FOR DELAWARE BAY, THERE IS A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE BETWEEN
11 AM AND 12 PM. THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT AND DELAWARE BAY FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE. WE ALSO EXPECT MINOR FLOODING FOR TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER AND ITS TIDAL TRIBUTARIES WHEN HIGH TIDE OCCURS
AROUND 2 PM TUESDAY, INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA, WHERE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

OVERALL, FOR THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT, INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY,
WE EXPECT THE GREATEST IMPACT WITH THE HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING
COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS TWO HIGH TIDES. IN FACT, THERE WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ROAD FLOODING WITH ROAD CLOSURES IN SOME AREAS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGE TO MORE VULNERABLE
STRUCTURES, ESPECIALLY FACTORING IN NEARSHORE WAVES OF 5 TO 10 FEET,
WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. IN PARTICULAR,
SOME BEACH AREAS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE DUE TO BEACH
EROSION AND DAMAGE TO SHORE STRUCTURES THAT OCCURRED IN LATE JANUARY,
WITH EMPHASIS ON CAPE MAY COUNTY NJ AND THE DE OCEANFRONT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-061-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101-102-104-106.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016>025-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC/GORSE
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/GORSE
MARINE...AMC/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 082336
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
636 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OUT TO SEA
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLDER AIRMASS THEN SETTLES IN FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
WILL USHER IN PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM
THE AREA TONIGHT, ANOTHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT, WHICH WILL HELP LEAD TO AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH TOWARD
THE GULF COAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STRETCH OUT INTO MORE OF A SURFACE TROUGH
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED LIFT
FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH AND VORTICITY IMPULSES, COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING
SNOWFALL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DELMARVA WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES
COULD FALL THROUGH DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE COASTAL
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE COMBINED LIFT FROM THE
SURFACE TROUGH, ALONG WITH A STRONGER VORTICITY IMPULSE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY, WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE IN
THE DENDRITIC ZONE AND IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
SNOWFALL DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. IT MAY NOT SNOW THE
ENTIRE TIME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, BUT WHEN IT DOES SNOW, THERE
COULD BE A FEW HEAVIER PERIODS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES COULD
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS,
SNOWFALL COLD CHANGE OVER AND/OR MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE
DAY WHICH WOULD LIMIT THEIR ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER TROF/LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS OVER THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME. THE SNOW EVENT WILL BE IN PROGRESS OVER THE
AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...TUES EVE...ALTHO
IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW MAY HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BY
THAT TIME. THIS UPPER SYS IS FAIRLY COMPLEX WITH A NUMBER OF
SHRTWV/VORT CENTERS ROTATING AROUND IT SO IT IS SMWHT DIFFICULT TO
SAY QUITE WHEN AND WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL FALL. OVERALL THIS
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR STORM WITH NO STRONG SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT AND MAINLY JUST LIGHT OR MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES...AS
NOTED ABOVE. FOR TOTAL SNOW...MOST GUIDANCE INCLUDING WPC SEEMED
TO INDICATE A WEST-EAST BAND OF GREATER SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF OUR FCST AREA AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN OUR TOTAL SNOW GRID.

THE SNOW SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY ENDED BY EARLY WED MORNING...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WED SO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. THERE WILL BE
DECENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY RESULTING IN TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE WINTER EXPECTED AT
THAT TIME. THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY HOWEVER THERE
COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR BY LATE THIS EVENING, THEN
MAINLY IFR OVERNIGHT. SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE REGION STARTING LATER THIS EVENING, WITH MUCH OF IT
FOCUSED FROM KABE TO KPNE TO KACY ON SOUTH AND WEST. THE SNOW WILL
LOWER THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH PERHAPS A BURST OF SNOW
OCCURRING TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

TUESDAY...IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF SNOW, HOWEVER ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF KPHL THE CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR AWHILE. WE
ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SNOW TOWARD THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE AXIS OF THIS HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEPEND ON
THE POSITIONING OF A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY. OUR CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIER SNOW IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER IT
DOES APPEAR MOSTLY EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN LATER IN THE DAY.
NORTHEAST WINDS MOSTLY 10-15 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH LATER IN THE
DAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED TUE NIGHT BUT TAPERING
OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WED MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS
AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIFR IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS DEVELOP.
LIGHT WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. BREEZY WLY
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR AND BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KT.

SATURDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS WINDS
BECOMING NW AND GUSTING TO 30 KT OR GREATER.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TODAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE FIRST
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY, BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED. ALSO, WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW LOW
STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS INCREASING AGAIN TO SCA AND POSSIBLY GALE
CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE...
WITH RENEWED NORTHEAST FLOW AND WAVE ACTION, WIDESPREAD MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT DURING
THE HIGH TIDE AROUND 700 PM TO 8PM THIS EVENING, IN SPITE OF THE
LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WHERE HIGH TIDE IS
BETWEEN 11PM AND MIDNIGHT, EXPECT MINOR FLOODING WITH POCKETS OF
MODERATE FLOODING, PARTICULARLY WITH RESIDUAL HIGH WATER LEVELS
AND EKMAN TRANSPORT. THUS, A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY.
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER AND ITS TIDAL TRIBUTARIES WHEN HIGH TIDE OCCURS
AROUND 2 AM TUESDAY, INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA, WHERE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

OVERALL, FOR THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT, WE EXPECT SIMILAR FLOODING
TONIGHT, COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. FOR DELAWARE BAY,
WE EXPECT GREATER FLOODING TONIGHT COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE WITH WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING AND POCKETS OF MODERATE
FLOODING.

TUESDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE...
WITH A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW AND HIGHER WAVE ACTION, WIDESPREAD
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT DURING THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE AROUND 730 AM TO 830 AM. FOR DELAWARE BAY, THERE IS A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE BETWEEN
11 AM AND 12 PM. THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT AND DELAWARE BAY FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE. WE ALSO EXPECT MINOR FLOODING FOR TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER AND ITS TIDAL TRIBUTARIES WHEN HIGH TIDE OCCURS
AROUND 2 PM TUESDAY, INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA, WHERE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

OVERALL, FOR THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT, INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY,
WE EXPECT THE GREATEST IMPACT WITH THE HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING
COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS TWO HIGH TIDES. IN FACT, THERE WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ROAD FLOODING WITH ROAD CLOSURES IN SOME AREAS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGE TO MORE VULNERABLE
STRUCTURES, ESPECIALLY FACTORING IN NEARSHORE WAVES OF 5 TO 10 FEET,
WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. IN PARTICULAR,
SOME BEACH AREAS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE DUE TO BEACH
EROSION AND DAMAGE TO SHORE STRUCTURES THAT OCCURRED IN LATE JANUARY,
WITH EMPHASIS ON CAPE MAY COUNTY NJ AND THE DE OCEANFRONT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-061-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101-102-104-106.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016>025-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC/GORSE
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/GORSE
MARINE...AMC/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 082124
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
424 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WEAKER LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW TO THE AREA. THE
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
COLDER AIR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY WILL USHER IN
PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM
THE AREA TONIGHT, ANOTHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT, WHICH WILL HELP LEAD TO AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH TOWARD
THE GULF COAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STRETCH OUT INTO MORE OF A SURFACE TROUGH
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED LIFT
FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH AND VORTICITY IMPULSES, COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING
SNOWFALL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DELMARVA WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES
COULD FALL THROUGH DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE COASTAL
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE COMBINED LIFT FROM THE
SURFACE TROUGH, ALONG WITH A STRONGER VORTICITY IMPULSE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY, WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE IN
THE DENDRITIC ZONE AND IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
SNOWFALL DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. IT MAY NOT SNOW THE
ENTIRE TIME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, BUT WHEN IT DOES SNOW, THERE
COULD BE A FEW HEAVIER PERIODS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES COULD
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS,
SNOWFALL COLD CHANGE OVER AND/OR MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE
DAY WHICH WOULD LIMIT THEIR ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER TROF/LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS OVER THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME. THE SNOW EVENT WILL BE IN PROGRESS OVER THE
AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...TUES EVE...ALTHO
IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW MAY HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BY
THAT TIME. THIS UPPER SYS IS FAIRLY COMPLEX WITH A NUMBER OF
SHRTWV/VORT CENTERS ROTATING AROUND IT SO IT IS SMWHT DIFFICULT TO
SAY QUITE WHEN AND WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL FALL. OVERALL THIS
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR STORM WITH NO STRONG SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT AND MAINLY JUST LIGHT OR MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES...AS
NOTED ABOVE. FOR TOTAL SNOW...MOST GUIDANCE INCLUDING WPC SEEMED
TO INDICATE A WEST-EAST BAND OF GREATER SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF OUR FCST AREA AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN OUR TOTAL SNOW GRID.

THE SNOW SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY ENDED BY EARLY WED MORNING...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WED SO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. THERE WILL BE
DECENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY RESULTING IN TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE WINTER EXPECTED AT
THAT TIME. THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY HOWEVER THERE
COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MVFR CIGS AT OTHER SITES. WE EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER INTO THIS EVENING, WITH EVERYONE BECOMING MVFR
AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR, AND SNOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INTO THE AREA. VSBYS SHOULD DROP ONCE SNOW STARTS AND LOWER INTO THE
IFR RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVIER TOWARD
DAYBREAK, AND ALSO DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, SO WE HAVE LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS DURING THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF, BUT A STEADY 5-10 KNOT FLOW SHOULD REMAIN.
WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAFS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.


OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED TUE NIGHT BUT TAPERING
OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WED MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS
AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIFR IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS DEVELOP.
LIGHT WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. BREEZY WLY
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR AND BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KT.

SATURDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS WINDS
BECOMING NW AND GUSTING TO 30 KT OR GREATER.

&&

.MARINE...
OUTLOOK... TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...SUB SCA CONDTIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS INCREASING AGAIN TO SCA AND POSSIBLY GALE
CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE...
WITH RENEWED NORTHEAST FLOW AND WAVE ACTION, WIDESPREAD MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT DURING
THE HIGH TIDE AROUND 700 PM TO 8PM THIS EVENING, IN SPITE OF THE
LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WHERE HIGH TIDE IS
BETWEEN 11PM AND MIDNIGHT, EXPECT MINOR FLOODING WITH POCKETS OF
MODERATE FLOODING, PARTICULARLY WITH RESIDUAL HIGH WATER LEVELS
AND EKMAN TRANSPORT. THUS, A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY.
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER AND ITS TIDAL TRIBUTARIES WHEN HIGH TIDE OCCURS
AROUND 2 AM TUESDAY, INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA, WHERE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

OVERALL, FOR THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT, WE EXPECT SIMILAR FLOODING
TONIGHT, COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. FOR DELAWARE BAY,
WE EXPECT GREATER FLOODING TONIGHT COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE WITH WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING AND POCKETS OF MODERATE
FLOODING.

TUESDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE...
WITH A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW AND HIGHER WAVE ACTION, WIDESPREAD
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT DURING THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE AROUND 730 AM TO 830 AM. FOR DELAWARE BAY, THERE IS A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE BETWEEN
11 AM AND 12 PM. THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT AND DELAWARE BAY FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE. WE ALSO EXPECT MINOR FLOODING FOR TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER AND ITS TIDAL TRIBUTARIES WHEN HIGH TIDE OCCURS
AROUND 2 PM TUESDAY, INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA, WHERE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

OVERALL, FOR THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT, INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY,
WE EXPECT THE GREATEST IMPACT WITH THE HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING
COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS TWO HIGH TIDES. IN FACT, THERE WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ROAD FLOODING WITH ROAD CLOSURES IN SOME AREAS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGE TO MORE VULNERABLE
STRUCTURES, ESPECIALLY FACTORING IN NEARSHORE WAVES OF 5 TO 10 FEET,
WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. IN PARTICULAR,
SOME BEACH AREAS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE DUE TO BEACH
EROSION AND DAMAGE TO SHORE STRUCTURES THAT OCCURRED IN LATE JANUARY,
WITH EMPHASIS ON CAPE MAY COUNTY NJ AND THE DE OCEANFRONT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-061-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101-102-104-106.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016>025-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/ROBERTSON
MARINE...AMC/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LF





000
FXUS61 KPHI 082124 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
424 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WEAKER LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW TO THE AREA. THE
LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
COLDER AIR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY WILL USHER IN
PERHAPS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE WINTER FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

AS THE FIRST STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM
THE AREA TONIGHT, ANOTHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OFF
THE COAST TONIGHT, WHICH WILL HELP LEAD TO AN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH TOWARD
THE GULF COAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT, BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE
FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STRETCH OUT INTO MORE OF A SURFACE TROUGH
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED LIFT
FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH AND VORTICITY IMPULSES, COMBINED WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPING
SNOWFALL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, AS WELL AS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DELMARVA WHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES
COULD FALL THROUGH DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE COASTAL
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE COMBINED LIFT FROM THE
SURFACE TROUGH, ALONG WITH A STRONGER VORTICITY IMPULSE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY, WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE IN
THE DENDRITIC ZONE AND IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
SNOWFALL DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. IT MAY NOT SNOW THE
ENTIRE TIME DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, BUT WHEN IT DOES SNOW, THERE
COULD BE A FEW HEAVIER PERIODS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES COULD
FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS,
SNOWFALL COLD CHANGE OVER AND/OR MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES DURING THE
DAY WHICH WOULD LIMIT THEIR ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER TROF/LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS OVER THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME. THE SNOW EVENT WILL BE IN PROGRESS OVER THE
AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD...TUES EVE...ALTHO
IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW MAY HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BY
THAT TIME. THIS UPPER SYS IS FAIRLY COMPLEX WITH A NUMBER OF
SHRTWV/VORT CENTERS ROTATING AROUND IT SO IT IS SMWHT DIFFICULT TO
SAY QUITE WHEN AND WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL FALL. OVERALL THIS
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A MAJOR STORM WITH NO STRONG SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT AND MAINLY JUST LIGHT OR MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES...AS
NOTED ABOVE. FOR TOTAL SNOW...MOST GUIDANCE INCLUDING WPC SEEMED
TO INDICATE A WEST-EAST BAND OF GREATER SNOWFALL ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OF OUR FCST AREA AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN OUR TOTAL SNOW GRID.

THE SNOW SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY ENDED BY EARLY WED MORNING...HOWEVER
THE UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WED SO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. THERE WILL BE
DECENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY RESULTING IN TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK. HOWEVER EVEN COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE WINTER EXPECTED AT
THAT TIME. THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY HOWEVER THERE
COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS OR SQUALLS WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MVFR CIGS AT OTHER SITES. WE EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LOWER INTO THIS EVENING, WITH EVERYONE BECOMING MVFR
AFTER SUNSET. CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR, AND SNOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INTO THE AREA. VSBYS SHOULD DROP ONCE SNOW STARTS AND LOWER INTO THE
IFR RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVIER TOWARD
DAYBREAK, AND ALSO DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, SO WE HAVE LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS DURING THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF, BUT A STEADY 5-10 KNOT FLOW SHOULD REMAIN.
WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAFS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED TUE NIGHT BUT TAPERING
OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS WED MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS
AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR LIFR IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS DEVELOP.
LIGHT WINDS.

WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. BREEZY WLY
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR AND BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KT.

SATURDAY...POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN SNOW SHOWERS WINDS
BECOMING NW AND GUSTING TO 30 KT OR GREATER.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH TODAY AND TUESDAY. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AS THE FIRST
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY, BUT WAVES WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED. ALSO, WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW LOW
STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...SUB SCA CONDTIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS INCREASING AGAIN TO SCA AND POSSIBLY GALE
CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE...
WITH RENEWED NORTHEAST FLOW AND WAVE ACTION, WIDESPREAD MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT DURING
THE HIGH TIDE AROUND 700 PM TO 8PM THIS EVENING, IN SPITE OF THE
LOWER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WHERE HIGH TIDE IS
BETWEEN 11PM AND MIDNIGHT, EXPECT MINOR FLOODING WITH POCKETS OF
MODERATE FLOODING, PARTICULARLY WITH RESIDUAL HIGH WATER LEVELS
AND EKMAN TRANSPORT. THUS, A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY.
MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER AND ITS TIDAL TRIBUTARIES WHEN HIGH TIDE OCCURS
AROUND 2 AM TUESDAY, INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA, WHERE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

OVERALL, FOR THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT, WE EXPECT SIMILAR FLOODING
TONIGHT, COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE. FOR DELAWARE BAY,
WE EXPECT GREATER FLOODING TONIGHT COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING`S
HIGH TIDE WITH WIDESPREAD MINOR FLOODING AND POCKETS OF MODERATE
FLOODING.

TUESDAY MORNING`S HIGH TIDE...
WITH A STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW AND HIGHER WAVE ACTION, WIDESPREAD
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WITH POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT DURING THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE AROUND 730 AM TO 830 AM. FOR DELAWARE BAY, THERE IS A HIGHER
LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE FLOODING NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE BETWEEN
11 AM AND 12 PM. THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE
DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT AND DELAWARE BAY FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE. WE ALSO EXPECT MINOR FLOODING FOR TIDAL SECTIONS OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER AND ITS TIDAL TRIBUTARIES WHEN HIGH TIDE OCCURS
AROUND 2 PM TUESDAY, INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA, WHERE A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CONTINUES.

OVERALL, FOR THE DE AND NJ OCEANFRONT, INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY,
WE EXPECT THE GREATEST IMPACT WITH THE HIGH TIDE TUESDAY MORNING
COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS TWO HIGH TIDES. IN FACT, THERE WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD ROAD FLOODING WITH ROAD CLOSURES IN SOME AREAS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGE TO MORE VULNERABLE
STRUCTURES, ESPECIALLY FACTORING IN NEARSHORE WAVES OF 5 TO 10 FEET,
WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION. IN PARTICULAR,
SOME BEACH AREAS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DAMAGE DUE TO BEACH
EROSION AND DAMAGE TO SHORE STRUCTURES THAT OCCURRED IN LATE JANUARY,
WITH EMPHASIS ON CAPE MAY COUNTY NJ AND THE DE OCEANFRONT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ060-061-103-105.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-101-102-104-106.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012>015.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ016>025-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ016.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ003-004.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/ROBERTSON
MARINE...AMC/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LF





000
FXUS61 KPHI 081656
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1156 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. AFTER THIS LOW QUICKLY MOVE OUT TO SEA EARLY
TUESDAY, A WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ORGANIZE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE,
A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH, AND OCEAN
COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AND WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. THERE COULD
BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO, BUT
MOST AREAS SHOULD NOW BE PRECIPITATION FREE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAYTIME HOURS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 20-30 MPH NEAR THE COAST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. INLAND SHOULD REMAIN GUST FREE, BUT A STEADY NORTH-
NORTHEAST BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STEADY, IF NOT DROP SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE DAY FOR SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL START TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LEADING
TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME, SO DO NOT EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THE MODELS HAVE
IN FACT TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EVEN SO, THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES OF SNOW IF
MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THAT DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC OUTERBANKS
MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOO FAR OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT US. HOWEVER, WE AREN`T OUT OF THE WOODS AS MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW REORGANIZING AS IT MOVES OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS SEEMS LIKE A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO
SINCE THE INITIAL MILLER-B LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL OUT TO
SEA (LEAVING SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO) AND THERE LOOKS TO
BE ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW THAT WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS. IN THESE TYPES OF SETUPS, ENHANCED FRONTOGENETICAL
LIFT AND MESOSCALE BANDING IS FAVORED ON THE NWRN SIDE OF THE LOW.
THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING IN THEIR MASS/THERMAL FIELDS THAT
PRODUCES A RELATIVELY NARROW WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVIER
QPF OVER THE NRN DELMARVA/SERN PA/SRN NJ. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
IMPLY ALL SNOW. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THESE AREAS OF CONCERN IMPLY THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. THERE IS CERTAINLY A
POTENTIAL THAT SOME RAIN MIXES IN AND/OR SNOW HAS A TOUGH TIME
ACCUMULATING...BUT ONLY IF THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP IS LIGHT.
IF THE HEAVIER SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE, THEN DYNAMICAL COOLING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS ISSUE.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC AND NEIGHBORING WFOS, WE DECIDED IT WAS
BEST TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FAR SERN PA, NRN DELMARVA AND
SRN NJ. THE WHOLE AREA IN THE WATCH WILL LIKELY NOT SEE WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL (AND SOME MAYBE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS) BUT THIS IS
WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL
EXISTS IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH SOMEWHERE APPROXIMATELY AS FAR
NORTH AS PHILADELPHIA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS DOVER. ANOTHER
CHALLENGE WITH THIS EVENT IS TRYING TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW. THE WATCH GOES STARTS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES 28
HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A LONG DURATION
EVENT BUT WE WENT WIDE IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN
WHEN THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS. ONE CAMP OF MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE OTHER
CLUSTER FAVORS LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

FARTHER NORTH INTO NERN PA AND NWRN NJ, WHERE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
HEAVIER SNOW IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT, LIGHT SNOW MAY
ONLY ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR TWO TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
WE`LL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW BAND SHIFTING NORTHWARD. VERY FEW SCENARIOS CAN BE RULED OUT
AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AND THE WAVE PASSES THRU THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A KICKER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WE WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME BUT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
MINOR. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ITS WAKE, THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S NORTH AND WEST OF THE FALL
LINE.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
POLAR AIRMASS. FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS ARE SUPPRESSING THE TRACK
OF THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND DEEPENING IT TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO BRING
THE DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THE 00Z
ECMWF, WITH SUPPORT FROM SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, ARE SHOWING A
DEEPER AND MORE NORTHERN SYSTEM, WHICH COULD BRING YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF AT SNOW TO OUR REGION.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES COULD BE 15-20F BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND
AND WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAFS REMAIN VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR/UPPER END OF MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH CIGS BETWEEN 2,500-3,500 FEET. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENIG, AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS, AND
EVENTUALLY LOWER VISIBILITIES WITH SNOW. LOWER CEILINGS COULD
START TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z, BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE SNOW TO
MOVE IN UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ONCE SNOW BEGINS TO MOVE IN, EXPECT
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED. THE SNOW MAY
MIX WITH RAIN AT MIV AND ACY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY AT
TIMES WHEN IT IS LIGHTER. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING AND OVERALL IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS BUT WE CAN
SAY THAT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
WILL DEVELOP SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD NEAR THE ILG-PHL-ACY
CORRIDOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LIFR IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS.

WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY, THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. BREEZY WLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 KT.

THURSDAY...VFR AND BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING AOA 30 KT. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

FRIDAY...CURRENTLY FORECASTING VFR BUT WE ARE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
BRING MORE SNOW INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE OCEAN AS WINDS HAVE
FALLEN BELOW WARNING LEVELS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED IN ITS PLACE AS WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS, BUT SEAS
REMAIN HIGH WITH THE NORTHEAST FETCH.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HAZARDOUS
SEAS AND PERIODS OF 25 KT GUSTS. THERE COULD BE A TEMPORARY LULL IN
THE WINDS ON TUESDAY CLOSE TO WHERE THE LOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GALES ARE
CERTAINLY A POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
UPDATE TO ADD ATLANTIC, SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON, AND OCEAN
COUNTIES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR BOTH TIDE CYCLES THIS
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDERGOES
EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING THROUGH TODAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF OUR
REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF PAUSE
THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY TONIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

ADDING TO THE TIDAL FLOODING POTENTIAL, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH DUE TO THE NEW MOON TODAY.

FOR MUCH OF THE JERSEY SHORE, WE ALREADY SAW A LARGE DEPARTURE
WITH THE LOW TIDE EARLIER, AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THUS, MODEL
GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM INDICATE THAT A DEPARTURE
OF OVER 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE, OR JUST ENOUGH
TO REACH MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WITH THE CONTINUED
NORTHEAST FLOW AND HIGH WAVE ACTION, EXPECT THAT IT COULD BE A
SIMILAR STORY FOR TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE, THOUGH THAT IS THE LOWER OF
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THUS THE WARNING INCLUDES BOTH HIGH TIDE
CYCLES TODAY. CONTINUED THE WATCH FOR TOMORROW`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN NJ SHORE AND THE DELAWARE COASTS...WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, WE EXPECT A SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FT THIS MORNING.
WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. WE
HAVE ALSO TEMPERED DOWN THE HIGH-BIASED ET AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE DUE
TO A RESIDUAL BIAS OF NEARLY 1 FOOT IN SPOTS. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A
BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WE REACH THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT
REEDY POINT, WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON EKMAN TRANSPORT IN A
NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE NONETHELESS.

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT/LONGER
FETCH TO THE WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST,
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE. WE AGREE
WITH THE STRONGER GFS WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY
RELAX NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ. NEVERTHELESS, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THE FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY
48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHER TIDAL
DEPARTURES COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO THE
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE, WE SIDED MORE
WITH THE HIGHER ETSS SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET, EVEN CONSIDERING THE
AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT WITH
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS UP TO PHILADELPHIA, GIVEN THE
MORE EASTERLY FLOW UP DELAWARE BAY. FOR THESE AREAS, A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101-102.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-022-025>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ021-023-
     024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NJZ016>023-027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLEIN
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 081656
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1156 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. AFTER THIS LOW QUICKLY MOVE OUT TO SEA EARLY
TUESDAY, A WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ORGANIZE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE,
A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH, AND OCEAN
COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AND WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. THERE COULD
BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO, BUT
MOST AREAS SHOULD NOW BE PRECIPITATION FREE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAYTIME HOURS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 20-30 MPH NEAR THE COAST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. INLAND SHOULD REMAIN GUST FREE, BUT A STEADY NORTH-
NORTHEAST BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STEADY, IF NOT DROP SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE DAY FOR SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL START TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LEADING
TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME, SO DO NOT EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THE MODELS HAVE
IN FACT TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EVEN SO, THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES OF SNOW IF
MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THAT DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC OUTERBANKS
MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOO FAR OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT US. HOWEVER, WE AREN`T OUT OF THE WOODS AS MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW REORGANIZING AS IT MOVES OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS SEEMS LIKE A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO
SINCE THE INITIAL MILLER-B LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL OUT TO
SEA (LEAVING SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO) AND THERE LOOKS TO
BE ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW THAT WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS. IN THESE TYPES OF SETUPS, ENHANCED FRONTOGENETICAL
LIFT AND MESOSCALE BANDING IS FAVORED ON THE NWRN SIDE OF THE LOW.
THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING IN THEIR MASS/THERMAL FIELDS THAT
PRODUCES A RELATIVELY NARROW WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVIER
QPF OVER THE NRN DELMARVA/SERN PA/SRN NJ. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
IMPLY ALL SNOW. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THESE AREAS OF CONCERN IMPLY THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. THERE IS CERTAINLY A
POTENTIAL THAT SOME RAIN MIXES IN AND/OR SNOW HAS A TOUGH TIME
ACCUMULATING...BUT ONLY IF THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP IS LIGHT.
IF THE HEAVIER SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE, THEN DYNAMICAL COOLING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS ISSUE.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC AND NEIGHBORING WFOS, WE DECIDED IT WAS
BEST TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FAR SERN PA, NRN DELMARVA AND
SRN NJ. THE WHOLE AREA IN THE WATCH WILL LIKELY NOT SEE WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL (AND SOME MAYBE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS) BUT THIS IS
WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL
EXISTS IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH SOMEWHERE APPROXIMATELY AS FAR
NORTH AS PHILADELPHIA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS DOVER. ANOTHER
CHALLENGE WITH THIS EVENT IS TRYING TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW. THE WATCH GOES STARTS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES 28
HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A LONG DURATION
EVENT BUT WE WENT WIDE IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN
WHEN THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS. ONE CAMP OF MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE OTHER
CLUSTER FAVORS LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

FARTHER NORTH INTO NERN PA AND NWRN NJ, WHERE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
HEAVIER SNOW IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT, LIGHT SNOW MAY
ONLY ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR TWO TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
WE`LL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW BAND SHIFTING NORTHWARD. VERY FEW SCENARIOS CAN BE RULED OUT
AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AND THE WAVE PASSES THRU THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A KICKER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WE WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME BUT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
MINOR. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ITS WAKE, THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S NORTH AND WEST OF THE FALL
LINE.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
POLAR AIRMASS. FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS ARE SUPPRESSING THE TRACK
OF THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND DEEPENING IT TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO BRING
THE DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THE 00Z
ECMWF, WITH SUPPORT FROM SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, ARE SHOWING A
DEEPER AND MORE NORTHERN SYSTEM, WHICH COULD BRING YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF AT SNOW TO OUR REGION.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES COULD BE 15-20F BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND
AND WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAFS REMAIN VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR/UPPER END OF MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH CIGS BETWEEN 2,500-3,500 FEET. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENIG, AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS, AND
EVENTUALLY LOWER VISIBILITIES WITH SNOW. LOWER CEILINGS COULD
START TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z, BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE SNOW TO
MOVE IN UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ONCE SNOW BEGINS TO MOVE IN, EXPECT
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED. THE SNOW MAY
MIX WITH RAIN AT MIV AND ACY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY AT
TIMES WHEN IT IS LIGHTER. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING AND OVERALL IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS BUT WE CAN
SAY THAT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
WILL DEVELOP SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD NEAR THE ILG-PHL-ACY
CORRIDOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LIFR IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS.

WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY, THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. BREEZY WLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 KT.

THURSDAY...VFR AND BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING AOA 30 KT. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

FRIDAY...CURRENTLY FORECASTING VFR BUT WE ARE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
BRING MORE SNOW INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE OCEAN AS WINDS HAVE
FALLEN BELOW WARNING LEVELS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED IN ITS PLACE AS WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS, BUT SEAS
REMAIN HIGH WITH THE NORTHEAST FETCH.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HAZARDOUS
SEAS AND PERIODS OF 25 KT GUSTS. THERE COULD BE A TEMPORARY LULL IN
THE WINDS ON TUESDAY CLOSE TO WHERE THE LOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GALES ARE
CERTAINLY A POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
UPDATE TO ADD ATLANTIC, SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON, AND OCEAN
COUNTIES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR BOTH TIDE CYCLES THIS
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDERGOES
EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING THROUGH TODAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF OUR
REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF PAUSE
THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY TONIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

ADDING TO THE TIDAL FLOODING POTENTIAL, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH DUE TO THE NEW MOON TODAY.

FOR MUCH OF THE JERSEY SHORE, WE ALREADY SAW A LARGE DEPARTURE
WITH THE LOW TIDE EARLIER, AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THUS, MODEL
GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM INDICATE THAT A DEPARTURE
OF OVER 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE, OR JUST ENOUGH
TO REACH MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WITH THE CONTINUED
NORTHEAST FLOW AND HIGH WAVE ACTION, EXPECT THAT IT COULD BE A
SIMILAR STORY FOR TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE, THOUGH THAT IS THE LOWER OF
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THUS THE WARNING INCLUDES BOTH HIGH TIDE
CYCLES TODAY. CONTINUED THE WATCH FOR TOMORROW`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN NJ SHORE AND THE DELAWARE COASTS...WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, WE EXPECT A SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FT THIS MORNING.
WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. WE
HAVE ALSO TEMPERED DOWN THE HIGH-BIASED ET AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE DUE
TO A RESIDUAL BIAS OF NEARLY 1 FOOT IN SPOTS. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A
BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WE REACH THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT
REEDY POINT, WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON EKMAN TRANSPORT IN A
NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE NONETHELESS.

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT/LONGER
FETCH TO THE WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST,
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE. WE AGREE
WITH THE STRONGER GFS WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY
RELAX NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ. NEVERTHELESS, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THE FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY
48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHER TIDAL
DEPARTURES COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO THE
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE, WE SIDED MORE
WITH THE HIGHER ETSS SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET, EVEN CONSIDERING THE
AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT WITH
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS UP TO PHILADELPHIA, GIVEN THE
MORE EASTERLY FLOW UP DELAWARE BAY. FOR THESE AREAS, A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101-102.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-022-025>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ021-023-
     024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NJZ016>023-027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLEIN
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 081656
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1156 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. AFTER THIS LOW QUICKLY MOVE OUT TO SEA EARLY
TUESDAY, A WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ORGANIZE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE,
A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH, AND OCEAN
COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED
OFFSHORE AND WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA. THERE COULD
BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO, BUT
MOST AREAS SHOULD NOW BE PRECIPITATION FREE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAYTIME HOURS.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 20-30 MPH NEAR THE COAST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. INLAND SHOULD REMAIN GUST FREE, BUT A STEADY NORTH-
NORTHEAST BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STEADY, IF NOT DROP SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE DAY FOR SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL START TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LEADING
TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME, SO DO NOT EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THE MODELS HAVE
IN FACT TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EVEN SO, THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES OF SNOW IF
MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THAT DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC OUTERBANKS
MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOO FAR OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT US. HOWEVER, WE AREN`T OUT OF THE WOODS AS MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW REORGANIZING AS IT MOVES OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS SEEMS LIKE A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO
SINCE THE INITIAL MILLER-B LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL OUT TO
SEA (LEAVING SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO) AND THERE LOOKS TO
BE ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW THAT WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS. IN THESE TYPES OF SETUPS, ENHANCED FRONTOGENETICAL
LIFT AND MESOSCALE BANDING IS FAVORED ON THE NWRN SIDE OF THE LOW.
THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING IN THEIR MASS/THERMAL FIELDS THAT
PRODUCES A RELATIVELY NARROW WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVIER
QPF OVER THE NRN DELMARVA/SERN PA/SRN NJ. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
IMPLY ALL SNOW. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THESE AREAS OF CONCERN IMPLY THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. THERE IS CERTAINLY A
POTENTIAL THAT SOME RAIN MIXES IN AND/OR SNOW HAS A TOUGH TIME
ACCUMULATING...BUT ONLY IF THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP IS LIGHT.
IF THE HEAVIER SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE, THEN DYNAMICAL COOLING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS ISSUE.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC AND NEIGHBORING WFOS, WE DECIDED IT WAS
BEST TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FAR SERN PA, NRN DELMARVA AND
SRN NJ. THE WHOLE AREA IN THE WATCH WILL LIKELY NOT SEE WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL (AND SOME MAYBE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS) BUT THIS IS
WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL
EXISTS IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH SOMEWHERE APPROXIMATELY AS FAR
NORTH AS PHILADELPHIA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS DOVER. ANOTHER
CHALLENGE WITH THIS EVENT IS TRYING TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW. THE WATCH GOES STARTS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES 28
HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A LONG DURATION
EVENT BUT WE WENT WIDE IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN
WHEN THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS. ONE CAMP OF MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE OTHER
CLUSTER FAVORS LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

FARTHER NORTH INTO NERN PA AND NWRN NJ, WHERE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
HEAVIER SNOW IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT, LIGHT SNOW MAY
ONLY ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR TWO TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
WE`LL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW BAND SHIFTING NORTHWARD. VERY FEW SCENARIOS CAN BE RULED OUT
AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AND THE WAVE PASSES THRU THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A KICKER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WE WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME BUT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
MINOR. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ITS WAKE, THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S NORTH AND WEST OF THE FALL
LINE.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
POLAR AIRMASS. FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS ARE SUPPRESSING THE TRACK
OF THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND DEEPENING IT TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO BRING
THE DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THE 00Z
ECMWF, WITH SUPPORT FROM SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, ARE SHOWING A
DEEPER AND MORE NORTHERN SYSTEM, WHICH COULD BRING YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF AT SNOW TO OUR REGION.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES COULD BE 15-20F BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND
AND WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAFS REMAIN VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR/UPPER END OF MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH CIGS BETWEEN 2,500-3,500 FEET. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENIG, AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS, AND
EVENTUALLY LOWER VISIBILITIES WITH SNOW. LOWER CEILINGS COULD
START TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z, BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE SNOW TO
MOVE IN UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ONCE SNOW BEGINS TO MOVE IN, EXPECT
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED. THE SNOW MAY
MIX WITH RAIN AT MIV AND ACY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY AT
TIMES WHEN IT IS LIGHTER. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING AND OVERALL IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS BUT WE CAN
SAY THAT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
WILL DEVELOP SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD NEAR THE ILG-PHL-ACY
CORRIDOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LIFR IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS.

WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY, THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. BREEZY WLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 KT.

THURSDAY...VFR AND BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING AOA 30 KT. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

FRIDAY...CURRENTLY FORECASTING VFR BUT WE ARE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
BRING MORE SNOW INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE OCEAN AS WINDS HAVE
FALLEN BELOW WARNING LEVELS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED IN ITS PLACE AS WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS, BUT SEAS
REMAIN HIGH WITH THE NORTHEAST FETCH.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HAZARDOUS
SEAS AND PERIODS OF 25 KT GUSTS. THERE COULD BE A TEMPORARY LULL IN
THE WINDS ON TUESDAY CLOSE TO WHERE THE LOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GALES ARE
CERTAINLY A POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
UPDATE TO ADD ATLANTIC, SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON, AND OCEAN
COUNTIES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR BOTH TIDE CYCLES THIS
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDERGOES
EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING THROUGH TODAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF OUR
REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF PAUSE
THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY TONIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

ADDING TO THE TIDAL FLOODING POTENTIAL, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH DUE TO THE NEW MOON TODAY.

FOR MUCH OF THE JERSEY SHORE, WE ALREADY SAW A LARGE DEPARTURE
WITH THE LOW TIDE EARLIER, AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THUS, MODEL
GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM INDICATE THAT A DEPARTURE
OF OVER 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE, OR JUST ENOUGH
TO REACH MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WITH THE CONTINUED
NORTHEAST FLOW AND HIGH WAVE ACTION, EXPECT THAT IT COULD BE A
SIMILAR STORY FOR TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE, THOUGH THAT IS THE LOWER OF
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THUS THE WARNING INCLUDES BOTH HIGH TIDE
CYCLES TODAY. CONTINUED THE WATCH FOR TOMORROW`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN NJ SHORE AND THE DELAWARE COASTS...WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, WE EXPECT A SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FT THIS MORNING.
WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. WE
HAVE ALSO TEMPERED DOWN THE HIGH-BIASED ET AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE DUE
TO A RESIDUAL BIAS OF NEARLY 1 FOOT IN SPOTS. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A
BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WE REACH THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT
REEDY POINT, WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON EKMAN TRANSPORT IN A
NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE NONETHELESS.

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT/LONGER
FETCH TO THE WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST,
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE. WE AGREE
WITH THE STRONGER GFS WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY
RELAX NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ. NEVERTHELESS, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THE FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY
48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHER TIDAL
DEPARTURES COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO THE
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE, WE SIDED MORE
WITH THE HIGHER ETSS SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET, EVEN CONSIDERING THE
AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT WITH
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS UP TO PHILADELPHIA, GIVEN THE
MORE EASTERLY FLOW UP DELAWARE BAY. FOR THESE AREAS, A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101-102.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-022-025>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ021-023-
     024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NJZ016>023-027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLEIN
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 081443
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
943 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. AFTER THIS LOW QUICKLY MOVE OUT TO SEA EARLY
TUESDAY, A WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ORGANIZE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE,
A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF SHORE.
A LARGE EXPANSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW. SO FAR, THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW HAS REMAINED
OFFSHORE AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION LOCATED RIGHT ALONG COASTAL OCEAN AND MONMOUTH
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND COASTAL DELAWARE. WITH TEMPERATURES
BEING ABOVE FREEZING, MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY RAIN,
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXING IN, AND THERE REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO CHANGE TO SNOW AND ACCUMULATE
BEFORE IT ENDS BY AROUND NOON/1 PM. SO WE`LL KEEP THE ADVISORY
GOING FOR NOW.

WINDS GUSTS ARE LIGHTENING A BIT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS,
BUT GUSTS 20-30 MPH WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. INLAND, GUSTS ARE BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AS WELL, BUT A
STEADY NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STEADY, IF NOT DROP SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE DAY FOR SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL START TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LEADING
TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME, SO DO NOT EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THE MODELS HAVE
IN FACT TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EVEN SO, THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES OF SNOW IF
MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THAT DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC OUTERBANKS
MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOO FAR OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT US. HOWEVER, WE AREN`T OUT OF THE WOODS AS MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW REORGANIZING AS IT MOVES OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS SEEMS LIKE A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO
SINCE THE INITIAL MILLER-B LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL OUT TO
SEA (LEAVING SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO) AND THERE LOOKS TO
BE ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW THAT WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS. IN THESE TYPES OF SETUPS, ENHANCED FRONTOGENETICAL
LIFT AND MESOSCALE BANDING IS FAVORED ON THE NWRN SIDE OF THE LOW.
THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING IN THEIR MASS/THERMAL FIELDS THAT
PRODUCES A RELATIVELY NARROW WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVIER
QPF OVER THE NRN DELMARVA/SERN PA/SRN NJ. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
IMPLY ALL SNOW. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THESE AREAS OF CONCERN IMPLY THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. THERE IS CERTAINLY A
POTENTIAL THAT SOME RAIN MIXES IN AND/OR SNOW HAS A TOUGH TIME
ACCUMULATING...BUT ONLY IF THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP IS LIGHT.
IF THE HEAVIER SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE, THEN DYNAMICAL COOLING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS ISSUE.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC AND NEIGHBORING WFOS, WE DECIDED IT WAS
BEST TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FAR SERN PA, NRN DELMARVA AND
SRN NJ. THE WHOLE AREA IN THE WATCH WILL LIKELY NOT SEE WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL (AND SOME MAYBE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS) BUT THIS IS
WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL
EXISTS IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH SOMEWHERE APPROXIMATELY AS FAR
NORTH AS PHILADELPHIA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS DOVER. ANOTHER
CHALLENGE WITH THIS EVENT IS TRYING TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW. THE WATCH GOES STARTS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES 28
HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A LONG DURATION
EVENT BUT WE WENT WIDE IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN
WHEN THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS. ONE CAMP OF MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE OTHER
CLUSTER FAVORS LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

FARTHER NORTH INTO NERN PA AND NWRN NJ, WHERE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
HEAVIER SNOW IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT, LIGHT SNOW MAY
ONLY ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR TWO TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
WE`LL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW BAND SHIFTING NORTHWARD. VERY FEW SCENARIOS CAN BE RULED OUT
AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AND THE WAVE PASSES THRU THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A KICKER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WE WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME BUT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
MINOR. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ITS WAKE, THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S NORTH AND WEST OF THE FALL
LINE.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
POLAR AIRMASS. FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS ARE SUPPRESSING THE TRACK
OF THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND DEEPENING IT TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO BRING
THE DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THE 00Z
ECMWF, WITH SUPPORT FROM SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, ARE SHOWING A
DEEPER AND MORE NORTHERN SYSTEM, WHICH COULD BRING YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF AT SNOW TO OUR REGION.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES COULD BE 15-20F BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND
AND WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KILG) AND THE
WESTERN TAF SITES (KABE AND KRDG) - MOSTLY VFR/UPPER END OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z WITH CIGS 2,500-3,500
FEET. AFTER THAT, AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING LOWER
CEILINGS, AND EVENTUALLY LOWER VISIBILITIES WITH SNOW. LOWER
CEILINGS COULD START TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z, BUT DO NOT
EXPECT THE SNOW TO MOVE IN UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ONCE SNOW BEGINS TO
MOVE IN, EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED. THE SNOW MAY
MIX WITH RAIN AT MIV AND ACY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY AT
TIMES WHEN IT IS LIGHTER. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING AND OVERALL IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS BUT WE CAN
SAY THAT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
WILL DEVELOP SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD NEAR THE ILG-PHL-ACY
CORRIDOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LIFR IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS.

WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY, THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. BREEZY WLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 KT.

THURSDAY...VFR AND BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING AOA 30 KT. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

FRIDAY...CURRENTLY FORECASTING VFR BUT WE ARE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
BRING MORE SNOW INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST REPORT GALE GUSTS. EXPECT THESE
STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY. ALTHOUGH SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WINDS MAY LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.

ON THE DELAWARE BAY, EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNRISE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THEY MAY LINTER FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HAZARDOUS
SEAS AND PERIODS OF 25 KT GUSTS. THERE COULD BE A TEMPORARY LULL IN
THE WINDS ON TUESDAY CLOSE TO WHERE THE LOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GALES ARE
CERTAINLY A POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
UPDATE TO ADD ATLANTIC, SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON, AND OCEAN
COUNTIES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR BOTH TIDE CYCLES THIS
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDERGOES
EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING THROUGH TODAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF OUR
REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF PAUSE
THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY TONIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

ADDING TO THE TIDAL FLOODING POTENTIAL, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH DUE TO THE NEW MOON TODAY.

FOR MUCH OF THE JERSEY SHORE, WE ALREADY SAW A LARGE DEPARTURE
WITH THE LOW TIDE EARLIER, AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THUS, MODEL
GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM INDICATE THAT A DEPARTURE
OF OVER 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE, OR JUST ENOUGH
TO REACH MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WITH THE CONTINUED
NORTHEAST FLOW AND HIGH WAVE ACTION, EXPECT THAT IT COULD BE A
SIMILAR STORY FOR TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE, THOUGH THAT IS THE LOWER OF
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THUS THE WARNING INCLUDES BOTH HIGH TIDE
CYCLES TODAY. CONTINUED THE WATCH FOR TOMORROW`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN NJ SHORE AND THE DELAWARE COASTS...WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, WE EXPECT A SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FT THIS MORNING.
WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. WE
HAVE ALSO TEMPERED DOWN THE HIGH-BIASED ET AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE DUE
TO A RESIDUAL BIAS OF NEARLY 1 FOOT IN SPOTS. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A
BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WE REACH THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT
REEDY POINT, WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON EKMAN TRANSPORT IN A
NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE NONETHELESS.

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT/LONGER
FETCH TO THE WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST,
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE. WE AGREE
WITH THE STRONGER GFS WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY
RELAX NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ. NEVERTHELESS, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THE FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY
48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHER TIDAL
DEPARTURES COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO THE
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE, WE SIDED MORE
WITH THE HIGHER ETSS SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET, EVEN CONSIDERING THE
AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT WITH
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS UP TO PHILADELPHIA, GIVEN THE
MORE EASTERLY FLOW UP DELAWARE BAY. FOR THESE AREAS, A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101-102.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-022-025>027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ021-023-
     024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NJZ016>023-027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLEIN
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 081443
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
943 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. AFTER THIS LOW QUICKLY MOVE OUT TO SEA EARLY
TUESDAY, A WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ORGANIZE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THURSDAY. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE,
A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF SHORE.
A LARGE EXPANSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE LOW. SO FAR, THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW HAS REMAINED
OFFSHORE AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE IS A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION LOCATED RIGHT ALONG COASTAL OCEAN AND MONMOUTH
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND COASTAL DELAWARE. WITH TEMPERATURES
BEING ABOVE FREEZING, MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY RAIN,
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW MIXING IN, AND THERE REMAINS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE RAIN TO CHANGE TO CHANGE TO SNOW AND ACCUMULATE
BEFORE IT ENDS BY AROUND NOON/1 PM. SO WE`LL KEEP THE ADVISORY
GOING FOR NOW.

WINDS GUSTS ARE LIGHTENING A BIT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS,
BUT GUSTS 20-30 MPH WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. INLAND, GUSTS ARE BEGINNING TO DROP OFF AS WELL, BUT A
STEADY NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY FAIRLY STEADY, IF NOT DROP SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE DAY FOR SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL START TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LEADING
TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME, SO DO NOT EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THE MODELS HAVE
IN FACT TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EVEN SO, THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES OF SNOW IF
MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THAT DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC OUTERBANKS
MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOO FAR OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT US. HOWEVER, WE AREN`T OUT OF THE WOODS AS MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW REORGANIZING AS IT MOVES OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS SEEMS LIKE A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO
SINCE THE INITIAL MILLER-B LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL OUT TO
SEA (LEAVING SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO) AND THERE LOOKS TO
BE ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW THAT WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS. IN THESE TYPES OF SETUPS, ENHANCED FRONTOGENETICAL
LIFT AND MESOSCALE BANDING IS FAVORED ON THE NWRN SIDE OF THE LOW.
THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING IN THEIR MASS/THERMAL FIELDS THAT
PRODUCES A RELATIVELY NARROW WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVIER
QPF OVER THE NRN DELMARVA/SERN PA/SRN NJ. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
IMPLY ALL SNOW. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THESE AREAS OF CONCERN IMPLY THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. THERE IS CERTAINLY A
POTENTIAL THAT SOME RAIN MIXES IN AND/OR SNOW HAS A TOUGH TIME
ACCUMULATING...BUT ONLY IF THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP IS LIGHT.
IF THE HEAVIER SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE, THEN DYNAMICAL COOLING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS ISSUE.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC AND NEIGHBORING WFOS, WE DECIDED IT WAS
BEST TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FAR SERN PA, NRN DELMARVA AND
SRN NJ. THE WHOLE AREA IN THE WATCH WILL LIKELY NOT SEE WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL (AND SOME MAYBE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS) BUT THIS IS
WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL
EXISTS IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH SOMEWHERE APPROXIMATELY AS FAR
NORTH AS PHILADELPHIA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS DOVER. ANOTHER
CHALLENGE WITH THIS EVENT IS TRYING TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW. THE WATCH GOES STARTS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES 28
HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A LONG DURATION
EVENT BUT WE WENT WIDE IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN
WHEN THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS. ONE CAMP OF MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE OTHER
CLUSTER FAVORS LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

FARTHER NORTH INTO NERN PA AND NWRN NJ, WHERE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
HEAVIER SNOW IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT, LIGHT SNOW MAY
ONLY ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR TWO TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
WE`LL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW BAND SHIFTING NORTHWARD. VERY FEW SCENARIOS CAN BE RULED OUT
AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AND THE WAVE PASSES THRU THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A KICKER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WE WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME BUT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
MINOR. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ITS WAKE, THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S NORTH AND WEST OF THE FALL
LINE.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
POLAR AIRMASS. FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS ARE SUPPRESSING THE TRACK
OF THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND DEEPENING IT TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO BRING
THE DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THE 00Z
ECMWF, WITH SUPPORT FROM SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, ARE SHOWING A
DEEPER AND MORE NORTHERN SYSTEM, WHICH COULD BRING YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF AT SNOW TO OUR REGION.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES COULD BE 15-20F BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND
AND WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KILG) AND THE
WESTERN TAF SITES (KABE AND KRDG) - MOSTLY VFR/UPPER END OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z WITH CIGS 2,500-3,500
FEET. AFTER THAT, AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING LOWER
CEILINGS, AND EVENTUALLY LOWER VISIBILITIES WITH SNOW. LOWER
CEILINGS COULD START TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z, BUT DO NOT
EXPECT THE SNOW TO MOVE IN UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ONCE SNOW BEGINS TO
MOVE IN, EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED. THE SNOW MAY
MIX WITH RAIN AT MIV AND ACY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY AT
TIMES WHEN IT IS LIGHTER. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING AND OVERALL IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS BUT WE CAN
SAY THAT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
WILL DEVELOP SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD NEAR THE ILG-PHL-ACY
CORRIDOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LIFR IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS.

WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY, THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. BREEZY WLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 KT.

THURSDAY...VFR AND BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING AOA 30 KT. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

FRIDAY...CURRENTLY FORECASTING VFR BUT WE ARE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
BRING MORE SNOW INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST REPORT GALE GUSTS. EXPECT THESE
STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY. ALTHOUGH SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WINDS MAY LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.

ON THE DELAWARE BAY, EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNRISE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THEY MAY LINTER FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HAZARDOUS
SEAS AND PERIODS OF 25 KT GUSTS. THERE COULD BE A TEMPORARY LULL IN
THE WINDS ON TUESDAY CLOSE TO WHERE THE LOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GALES ARE
CERTAINLY A POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
UPDATE TO ADD ATLANTIC, SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON, AND OCEAN
COUNTIES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR BOTH TIDE CYCLES THIS
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDERGOES
EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING THROUGH TODAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF OUR
REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF PAUSE
THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY TONIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

ADDING TO THE TIDAL FLOODING POTENTIAL, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH DUE TO THE NEW MOON TODAY.

FOR MUCH OF THE JERSEY SHORE, WE ALREADY SAW A LARGE DEPARTURE
WITH THE LOW TIDE EARLIER, AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THUS, MODEL
GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM INDICATE THAT A DEPARTURE
OF OVER 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE, OR JUST ENOUGH
TO REACH MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WITH THE CONTINUED
NORTHEAST FLOW AND HIGH WAVE ACTION, EXPECT THAT IT COULD BE A
SIMILAR STORY FOR TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE, THOUGH THAT IS THE LOWER OF
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THUS THE WARNING INCLUDES BOTH HIGH TIDE
CYCLES TODAY. CONTINUED THE WATCH FOR TOMORROW`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN NJ SHORE AND THE DELAWARE COASTS...WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, WE EXPECT A SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FT THIS MORNING.
WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. WE
HAVE ALSO TEMPERED DOWN THE HIGH-BIASED ET AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE DUE
TO A RESIDUAL BIAS OF NEARLY 1 FOOT IN SPOTS. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A
BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WE REACH THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT
REEDY POINT, WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON EKMAN TRANSPORT IN A
NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE NONETHELESS.

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT/LONGER
FETCH TO THE WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST,
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE. WE AGREE
WITH THE STRONGER GFS WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY
RELAX NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ. NEVERTHELESS, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THE FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY
48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHER TIDAL
DEPARTURES COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO THE
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE, WE SIDED MORE
WITH THE HIGHER ETSS SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET, EVEN CONSIDERING THE
AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT WITH
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS UP TO PHILADELPHIA, GIVEN THE
MORE EASTERLY FLOW UP DELAWARE BAY. FOR THESE AREAS, A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101-102.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-022-025>027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ021-023-
     024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NJZ016>023-027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLEIN
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 081148
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
648 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND FARTHER OUT TO
SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AFTER THIS LOW QUICKLY
MOVE OUT TO SEA EARLY TUESDAY, A WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
ORGANIZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE
FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE, A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF SHORE. STILL HAVEN`T SEEN PRECIP
PROPAGATE WEST FAR ENOUGH TO MOVE ON SHORE. HOWEVER, A BAND HAS
BECOME MORE DEFINED IN THE RADAR MOSAIC, AND STILL EXPECT THIS TO
MOVE ONTO THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHORE NEAR DAY BREAK. HRRR AND RAP
SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL. SO WILL CONTINUE THE THREE COUNTY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GENERALLY ONE TO 3 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

FOR THE REST OF THE REGION, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. ALREADY WINDS AT THE SHORE ARE
GUSTING 30 TO 35 KT (35 TO 40 MPH). HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE DECREASING QUICKLY AFTER DAY BREAK AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY,
SO THE WINDS WE ARE SEEING NOW ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL START TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LEADING
TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME, SO DO NOT EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THE MODELS HAVE
IN FACT TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EVEN SO, THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES OF SNOW IF
MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THAT DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC OUTERBANKS
MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOO FAR OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT US. HOWEVER, WE AREN`T OUT OF THE WOODS AS MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW REORGANIZING AS IT MOVES OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS SEEMS LIKE A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO
SINCE THE INITIAL MILLER-B LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL OUT TO
SEA (LEAVING SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO) AND THERE LOOKS TO
BE ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW THAT WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS. IN THESE TYPES OF SETUPS, ENHANCED FRONTOGENETICAL
LIFT AND MESOSCALE BANDING IS FAVORED ON THE NWRN SIDE OF THE LOW.
THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING IN THEIR MASS/THERMAL FIELDS THAT
PRODUCES A RELATIVELY NARROW WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVIER
QPF OVER THE NRN DELMARVA/SERN PA/SRN NJ. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
IMPLY ALL SNOW. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THESE AREAS OF CONCERN IMPLY THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. THERE IS CERTAINLY A
POTENTIAL THAT SOME RAIN MIXES IN AND/OR SNOW HAS A TOUGH TIME
ACCUMULATING...BUT ONLY IF THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP IS LIGHT.
IF THE HEAVIER SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE, THEN DYNAMICAL COOLING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS ISSUE.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC AND NEIGHBORING WFOS, WE DECIDED IT WAS
BEST TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FAR SERN PA, NRN DELMARVA AND
SRN NJ. THE WHOLE AREA IN THE WATCH WILL LIKELY NOT SEE WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL (AND SOME MAYBE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS) BUT THIS IS
WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL
EXISTS IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH SOMEWHERE APPROXIMATELY AS FAR
NORTH AS PHILADELPHIA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS DOVER. ANOTHER
CHALLENGE WITH THIS EVENT IS TRYING TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW. THE WATCH GOES STARTS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES 28
HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A LONG DURATION
EVENT BUT WE WENT WIDE IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN
WHEN THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS. ONE CAMP OF MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE OTHER
CLUSTER FAVORS LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

FARTHER NORTH INTO NERN PA AND NWRN NJ, WHERE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
HEAVIER SNOW IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT, LIGHT SNOW MAY
ONLY ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR TWO TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
WE`LL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW BAND SHIFTING NORTHWARD. VERY FEW SCENARIOS CAN BE RULED OUT
AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AND THE WAVE PASSES THRU THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A KICKER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WE WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME BUT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
MINOR. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ITS WAKE, THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S NORTH AND WEST OF THE FALL
LINE.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
POLAR AIRMASS. FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS ARE SUPPRESSING THE TRACK
OF THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND DEEPENING IT TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO BRING
THE DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THE 00Z
ECMWF, WITH SUPPORT FROM SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, ARE SHOWING A
DEEPER AND MORE NORTHERN SYSTEM, WHICH COULD BRING YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF AT SNOW TO OUR REGION.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES COULD BE 15-20F BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND
AND WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KILG) AND THE
WESTERN TAF SITES (KABE AND KRDG) - MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. AFTER THAT, AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS, AND EVENTUALLY LOWER VISIBILITIES WITH
SNOW. LOWER CEILINGS COULD START TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z, BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THE SNOW TO MOVE IN UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ONCE SNOW
BEGINS TO MOVE IN, EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED. THE SNOW MAY
MIX WITH RAIN AT MIV AND ACY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY AT
TIMES WHEN IT IS LIGHTER. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING AND OVERALL IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS BUT WE CAN
SAY THAT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
WILL DEVELOP SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD NEAR THE ILG-PHL-ACY
CORRIDOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LIFR IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS.

WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY, THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. BREEZY WLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 KT.

THURSDAY...VFR AND BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING AOA 30 KT. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

FRIDAY...CURRENTLY FORECASTING VFR BUT WE ARE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
BRING MORE SNOW INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST REPORT GALE GUSTS. EXPECT THESE
STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY. ALTHOUGH SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WINDS MAY LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.

ON THE DELAWARE BAY, EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNRISE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THEY MAY LINTER FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HAZARDOUS
SEAS AND PERIODS OF 25 KT GUSTS. THERE COULD BE A TEMPORARY LULL IN
THE WINDS ON TUESDAY CLOSE TO WHERE THE LOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GALES ARE
CERTAINLY A POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
UPDATE TO ADD ATLANTIC, SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON, AND OCEAN
COUNTIES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR BOTH TIDE CYCLES THIS
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDERGOES
EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING THROUGH TODAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF OUR
REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF PAUSE
THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY TONIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

ADDING TO THE TIDAL FLOODING POTENTIAL, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH DUE TO THE NEW MOON TODAY.

FOR MUCH OF THE JERSEY SHORE, WE ALREADY SAW A LARGE DEPARTURE
WITH THE LOW TIDE EARLIER, AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THUS, MODEL
GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM INDICATE THAT A DEPARTURE
OF OVER 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE, OR JUST ENOUGH
TO REACH MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WITH THE CONTINUED
NORTHEAST FLOW AND HIGH WAVE ACTION, EXPECT THAT IT COULD BE A
SIMILAR STORY FOR TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE, THOUGH THAT IS THE LOWER OF
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THUS THE WARNING INCLUDES BOTH HIGH TIDE
CYCLES TODAY. CONTINUED THE WATCH FOR TOMORROW`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN NJ SHORE AND THE DELAWARE COASTS...WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, WE EXPECT A SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FT THIS MORNING.
WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. WE
HAVE ALSO TEMPERED DOWN THE HIGH-BIASED ET AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE DUE
TO A RESIDUAL BIAS OF NEARLY 1 FOOT IN SPOTS. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A
BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WE REACH THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT
REEDY POINT, WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON EKMAN TRANSPORT IN A
NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE NONETHELESS.

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT/LONGER
FETCH TO THE WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST,
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE. WE AGREE
WITH THE STRONGER GFS WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY
RELAX NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ. NEVERTHELESS, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THE FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY
48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHER TIDAL
DEPARTURES COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO THE
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE, WE SIDED MORE
WITH THE HIGHER ETSS SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET, EVEN CONSIDERING THE
AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT WITH
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS UP TO PHILADELPHIA, GIVEN THE
MORE EASTERLY FLOW UP DELAWARE BAY. FOR THESE AREAS, A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101-102.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-022-025>027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ021-023-
     024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NJZ016>023-027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLEIN
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 081148
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
648 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND FARTHER OUT TO
SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AFTER THIS LOW QUICKLY
MOVE OUT TO SEA EARLY TUESDAY, A WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
ORGANIZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE
FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE, A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF SHORE. STILL HAVEN`T SEEN PRECIP
PROPAGATE WEST FAR ENOUGH TO MOVE ON SHORE. HOWEVER, A BAND HAS
BECOME MORE DEFINED IN THE RADAR MOSAIC, AND STILL EXPECT THIS TO
MOVE ONTO THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHORE NEAR DAY BREAK. HRRR AND RAP
SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL. SO WILL CONTINUE THE THREE COUNTY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GENERALLY ONE TO 3 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

FOR THE REST OF THE REGION, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. ALREADY WINDS AT THE SHORE ARE
GUSTING 30 TO 35 KT (35 TO 40 MPH). HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE DECREASING QUICKLY AFTER DAY BREAK AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY,
SO THE WINDS WE ARE SEEING NOW ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL START TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LEADING
TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME, SO DO NOT EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THE MODELS HAVE
IN FACT TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EVEN SO, THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES OF SNOW IF
MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THAT DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC OUTERBANKS
MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOO FAR OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT US. HOWEVER, WE AREN`T OUT OF THE WOODS AS MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW REORGANIZING AS IT MOVES OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS SEEMS LIKE A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO
SINCE THE INITIAL MILLER-B LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL OUT TO
SEA (LEAVING SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO) AND THERE LOOKS TO
BE ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW THAT WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS. IN THESE TYPES OF SETUPS, ENHANCED FRONTOGENETICAL
LIFT AND MESOSCALE BANDING IS FAVORED ON THE NWRN SIDE OF THE LOW.
THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING IN THEIR MASS/THERMAL FIELDS THAT
PRODUCES A RELATIVELY NARROW WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVIER
QPF OVER THE NRN DELMARVA/SERN PA/SRN NJ. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
IMPLY ALL SNOW. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THESE AREAS OF CONCERN IMPLY THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. THERE IS CERTAINLY A
POTENTIAL THAT SOME RAIN MIXES IN AND/OR SNOW HAS A TOUGH TIME
ACCUMULATING...BUT ONLY IF THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP IS LIGHT.
IF THE HEAVIER SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE, THEN DYNAMICAL COOLING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS ISSUE.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC AND NEIGHBORING WFOS, WE DECIDED IT WAS
BEST TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FAR SERN PA, NRN DELMARVA AND
SRN NJ. THE WHOLE AREA IN THE WATCH WILL LIKELY NOT SEE WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL (AND SOME MAYBE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS) BUT THIS IS
WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL
EXISTS IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH SOMEWHERE APPROXIMATELY AS FAR
NORTH AS PHILADELPHIA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS DOVER. ANOTHER
CHALLENGE WITH THIS EVENT IS TRYING TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW. THE WATCH GOES STARTS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES 28
HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A LONG DURATION
EVENT BUT WE WENT WIDE IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN
WHEN THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS. ONE CAMP OF MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE OTHER
CLUSTER FAVORS LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

FARTHER NORTH INTO NERN PA AND NWRN NJ, WHERE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
HEAVIER SNOW IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT, LIGHT SNOW MAY
ONLY ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR TWO TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
WE`LL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW BAND SHIFTING NORTHWARD. VERY FEW SCENARIOS CAN BE RULED OUT
AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AND THE WAVE PASSES THRU THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A KICKER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WE WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME BUT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
MINOR. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ITS WAKE, THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S NORTH AND WEST OF THE FALL
LINE.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
POLAR AIRMASS. FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS ARE SUPPRESSING THE TRACK
OF THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND DEEPENING IT TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO BRING
THE DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THE 00Z
ECMWF, WITH SUPPORT FROM SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, ARE SHOWING A
DEEPER AND MORE NORTHERN SYSTEM, WHICH COULD BRING YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF AT SNOW TO OUR REGION.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES COULD BE 15-20F BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND
AND WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KILG) AND THE
WESTERN TAF SITES (KABE AND KRDG) - MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. AFTER THAT, AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS, AND EVENTUALLY LOWER VISIBILITIES WITH
SNOW. LOWER CEILINGS COULD START TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z, BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THE SNOW TO MOVE IN UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ONCE SNOW
BEGINS TO MOVE IN, EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED. THE SNOW MAY
MIX WITH RAIN AT MIV AND ACY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY AT
TIMES WHEN IT IS LIGHTER. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING AND OVERALL IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS BUT WE CAN
SAY THAT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
WILL DEVELOP SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD NEAR THE ILG-PHL-ACY
CORRIDOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LIFR IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS.

WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY, THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. BREEZY WLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 KT.

THURSDAY...VFR AND BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING AOA 30 KT. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

FRIDAY...CURRENTLY FORECASTING VFR BUT WE ARE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
BRING MORE SNOW INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST REPORT GALE GUSTS. EXPECT THESE
STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY. ALTHOUGH SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WINDS MAY LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.

ON THE DELAWARE BAY, EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNRISE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THEY MAY LINTER FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HAZARDOUS
SEAS AND PERIODS OF 25 KT GUSTS. THERE COULD BE A TEMPORARY LULL IN
THE WINDS ON TUESDAY CLOSE TO WHERE THE LOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GALES ARE
CERTAINLY A POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
UPDATE TO ADD ATLANTIC, SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON, AND OCEAN
COUNTIES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR BOTH TIDE CYCLES THIS
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDERGOES
EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING THROUGH TODAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF OUR
REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF PAUSE
THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY TONIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

ADDING TO THE TIDAL FLOODING POTENTIAL, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH DUE TO THE NEW MOON TODAY.

FOR MUCH OF THE JERSEY SHORE, WE ALREADY SAW A LARGE DEPARTURE
WITH THE LOW TIDE EARLIER, AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THUS, MODEL
GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM INDICATE THAT A DEPARTURE
OF OVER 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE, OR JUST ENOUGH
TO REACH MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WITH THE CONTINUED
NORTHEAST FLOW AND HIGH WAVE ACTION, EXPECT THAT IT COULD BE A
SIMILAR STORY FOR TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE, THOUGH THAT IS THE LOWER OF
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THUS THE WARNING INCLUDES BOTH HIGH TIDE
CYCLES TODAY. CONTINUED THE WATCH FOR TOMORROW`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN NJ SHORE AND THE DELAWARE COASTS...WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, WE EXPECT A SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FT THIS MORNING.
WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. WE
HAVE ALSO TEMPERED DOWN THE HIGH-BIASED ET AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE DUE
TO A RESIDUAL BIAS OF NEARLY 1 FOOT IN SPOTS. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A
BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WE REACH THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT
REEDY POINT, WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON EKMAN TRANSPORT IN A
NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE NONETHELESS.

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT/LONGER
FETCH TO THE WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST,
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE. WE AGREE
WITH THE STRONGER GFS WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY
RELAX NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ. NEVERTHELESS, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THE FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY
48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHER TIDAL
DEPARTURES COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO THE
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE, WE SIDED MORE
WITH THE HIGHER ETSS SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET, EVEN CONSIDERING THE
AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT WITH
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS UP TO PHILADELPHIA, GIVEN THE
MORE EASTERLY FLOW UP DELAWARE BAY. FOR THESE AREAS, A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101-102.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-022-025>027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ021-023-
     024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NJZ016>023-027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLEIN
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 081148
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
648 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND FARTHER OUT TO
SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AFTER THIS LOW QUICKLY
MOVE OUT TO SEA EARLY TUESDAY, A WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
ORGANIZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE
FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE, A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF SHORE. STILL HAVEN`T SEEN PRECIP
PROPAGATE WEST FAR ENOUGH TO MOVE ON SHORE. HOWEVER, A BAND HAS
BECOME MORE DEFINED IN THE RADAR MOSAIC, AND STILL EXPECT THIS TO
MOVE ONTO THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHORE NEAR DAY BREAK. HRRR AND RAP
SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL. SO WILL CONTINUE THE THREE COUNTY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GENERALLY ONE TO 3 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

FOR THE REST OF THE REGION, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. ALREADY WINDS AT THE SHORE ARE
GUSTING 30 TO 35 KT (35 TO 40 MPH). HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE DECREASING QUICKLY AFTER DAY BREAK AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY,
SO THE WINDS WE ARE SEEING NOW ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL START TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LEADING
TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME, SO DO NOT EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THE MODELS HAVE
IN FACT TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EVEN SO, THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES OF SNOW IF
MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THAT DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC OUTERBANKS
MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOO FAR OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT US. HOWEVER, WE AREN`T OUT OF THE WOODS AS MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW REORGANIZING AS IT MOVES OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS SEEMS LIKE A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO
SINCE THE INITIAL MILLER-B LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL OUT TO
SEA (LEAVING SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO) AND THERE LOOKS TO
BE ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW THAT WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS. IN THESE TYPES OF SETUPS, ENHANCED FRONTOGENETICAL
LIFT AND MESOSCALE BANDING IS FAVORED ON THE NWRN SIDE OF THE LOW.
THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING IN THEIR MASS/THERMAL FIELDS THAT
PRODUCES A RELATIVELY NARROW WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVIER
QPF OVER THE NRN DELMARVA/SERN PA/SRN NJ. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
IMPLY ALL SNOW. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THESE AREAS OF CONCERN IMPLY THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. THERE IS CERTAINLY A
POTENTIAL THAT SOME RAIN MIXES IN AND/OR SNOW HAS A TOUGH TIME
ACCUMULATING...BUT ONLY IF THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP IS LIGHT.
IF THE HEAVIER SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE, THEN DYNAMICAL COOLING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS ISSUE.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC AND NEIGHBORING WFOS, WE DECIDED IT WAS
BEST TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FAR SERN PA, NRN DELMARVA AND
SRN NJ. THE WHOLE AREA IN THE WATCH WILL LIKELY NOT SEE WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL (AND SOME MAYBE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS) BUT THIS IS
WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL
EXISTS IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH SOMEWHERE APPROXIMATELY AS FAR
NORTH AS PHILADELPHIA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS DOVER. ANOTHER
CHALLENGE WITH THIS EVENT IS TRYING TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW. THE WATCH GOES STARTS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES 28
HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A LONG DURATION
EVENT BUT WE WENT WIDE IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN
WHEN THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS. ONE CAMP OF MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE OTHER
CLUSTER FAVORS LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

FARTHER NORTH INTO NERN PA AND NWRN NJ, WHERE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
HEAVIER SNOW IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT, LIGHT SNOW MAY
ONLY ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR TWO TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
WE`LL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW BAND SHIFTING NORTHWARD. VERY FEW SCENARIOS CAN BE RULED OUT
AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AND THE WAVE PASSES THRU THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A KICKER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WE WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME BUT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
MINOR. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ITS WAKE, THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S NORTH AND WEST OF THE FALL
LINE.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
POLAR AIRMASS. FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS ARE SUPPRESSING THE TRACK
OF THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND DEEPENING IT TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO BRING
THE DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THE 00Z
ECMWF, WITH SUPPORT FROM SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, ARE SHOWING A
DEEPER AND MORE NORTHERN SYSTEM, WHICH COULD BRING YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF AT SNOW TO OUR REGION.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES COULD BE 15-20F BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND
AND WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KILG) AND THE
WESTERN TAF SITES (KABE AND KRDG) - MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. AFTER THAT, AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS, AND EVENTUALLY LOWER VISIBILITIES WITH
SNOW. LOWER CEILINGS COULD START TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z, BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THE SNOW TO MOVE IN UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ONCE SNOW
BEGINS TO MOVE IN, EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED. THE SNOW MAY
MIX WITH RAIN AT MIV AND ACY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY AT
TIMES WHEN IT IS LIGHTER. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING AND OVERALL IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS BUT WE CAN
SAY THAT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
WILL DEVELOP SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD NEAR THE ILG-PHL-ACY
CORRIDOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LIFR IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS.

WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY, THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. BREEZY WLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 KT.

THURSDAY...VFR AND BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING AOA 30 KT. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

FRIDAY...CURRENTLY FORECASTING VFR BUT WE ARE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
BRING MORE SNOW INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST REPORT GALE GUSTS. EXPECT THESE
STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY. ALTHOUGH SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WINDS MAY LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.

ON THE DELAWARE BAY, EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNRISE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THEY MAY LINTER FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HAZARDOUS
SEAS AND PERIODS OF 25 KT GUSTS. THERE COULD BE A TEMPORARY LULL IN
THE WINDS ON TUESDAY CLOSE TO WHERE THE LOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GALES ARE
CERTAINLY A POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
UPDATE TO ADD ATLANTIC, SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON, AND OCEAN
COUNTIES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR BOTH TIDE CYCLES THIS
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDERGOES
EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING THROUGH TODAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF OUR
REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF PAUSE
THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY TONIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

ADDING TO THE TIDAL FLOODING POTENTIAL, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH DUE TO THE NEW MOON TODAY.

FOR MUCH OF THE JERSEY SHORE, WE ALREADY SAW A LARGE DEPARTURE
WITH THE LOW TIDE EARLIER, AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THUS, MODEL
GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM INDICATE THAT A DEPARTURE
OF OVER 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE, OR JUST ENOUGH
TO REACH MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WITH THE CONTINUED
NORTHEAST FLOW AND HIGH WAVE ACTION, EXPECT THAT IT COULD BE A
SIMILAR STORY FOR TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE, THOUGH THAT IS THE LOWER OF
THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THUS THE WARNING INCLUDES BOTH HIGH TIDE
CYCLES TODAY. CONTINUED THE WATCH FOR TOMORROW`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN NJ SHORE AND THE DELAWARE COASTS...WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, WE EXPECT A SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FT THIS MORNING.
WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. WE
HAVE ALSO TEMPERED DOWN THE HIGH-BIASED ET AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE DUE
TO A RESIDUAL BIAS OF NEARLY 1 FOOT IN SPOTS. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A
BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WE REACH THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT
REEDY POINT, WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON EKMAN TRANSPORT IN A
NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE NONETHELESS.

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT/LONGER
FETCH TO THE WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST,
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE. WE AGREE
WITH THE STRONGER GFS WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY
RELAX NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ. NEVERTHELESS, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THE FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY
48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHER TIDAL
DEPARTURES COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO THE
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE, WE SIDED MORE
WITH THE HIGHER ETSS SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET, EVEN CONSIDERING THE
AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT WITH
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS UP TO PHILADELPHIA, GIVEN THE
MORE EASTERLY FLOW UP DELAWARE BAY. FOR THESE AREAS, A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101-102.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-022-025>027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ021-023-
     024.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ016.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NJZ016>023-027.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLEIN
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 081003 AAA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
503 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND FARTHER OUT TO
SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AFTER THIS LOW QUICKLY
MOVE OUT TO SEA EARLY TUESDAY, A WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
ORGANIZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE
FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE, A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF SHORE. STILL HAVEN`T SEEN PRECIP
PROPAGATE WEST FAR ENOUGH TO MOVE ON SHORE. HOWEVER, A BAND HAS
BECOME MORE DEFINED IN THE RADAR MOSAIC, AND STILL EXPECT THIS TO
MOVE ONTO THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHORE NEAR DAY BREAK. HRRR AND RAP
SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL. SO WILL CONTINUE THE THREE COUNTY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GENERALLY ONE TO 3 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

FOR THE REST OF THE REGION, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. ALREADY WINDS AT THE SHORE ARE
GUSTING 30 TO 35 KT (35 TO 40 MPH). HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE DECREASING QUICKLY AFTER DAY BREAK AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY,
SO THE WINDS WE ARE SEEING NOW ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL START TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LEADING
TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME, SO DO NOT EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THE MODELS HAVE
IN FACT TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EVEN SO, THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES OF SNOW IF
MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SECONDARY COASTAL LOW THAT DEEPENS RAPIDLY OFF THE NC OUTERBANKS
MONDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOO FAR OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY TO
DIRECTLY IMPACT US. HOWEVER, WE AREN`T OUT OF THE WOODS AS MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW REORGANIZING AS IT MOVES OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON TUESDAY. THIS SEEMS LIKE A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO
SINCE THE INITIAL MILLER-B LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WELL OUT TO
SEA (LEAVING SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO) AND THERE LOOKS TO
BE ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW THAT WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND COASTAL
CYCLOGENESIS. IN THESE TYPES OF SETUPS, ENHANCED FRONTOGENETICAL
LIFT AND MESOSCALE BANDING IS FAVORED ON THE NWRN SIDE OF THE LOW.
THE 00Z GUIDANCE HAD COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING IN THEIR MASS/THERMAL FIELDS THAT
PRODUCES A RELATIVELY NARROW WEST-EAST ORIENTED BAND OF HEAVIER
QPF OVER THE NRN DELMARVA/SERN PA/SRN NJ. PARTIAL THICKNESSES
IMPLY ALL SNOW. HOWEVER, THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S FOR THESE AREAS OF CONCERN IMPLY THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW. THERE IS CERTAINLY A
POTENTIAL THAT SOME RAIN MIXES IN AND/OR SNOW HAS A TOUGH TIME
ACCUMULATING...BUT ONLY IF THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP IS LIGHT.
IF THE HEAVIER SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE, THEN DYNAMICAL COOLING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THIS ISSUE.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC AND NEIGHBORING WFOS, WE DECIDED IT WAS
BEST TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FAR SERN PA, NRN DELMARVA AND
SRN NJ. THE WHOLE AREA IN THE WATCH WILL LIKELY NOT SEE WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL (AND SOME MAYBE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS) BUT THIS IS
WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL
EXISTS IN A RATHER NARROW SWATH SOMEWHERE APPROXIMATELY AS FAR
NORTH AS PHILADELPHIA AND AS FAR SOUTH AS DOVER. ANOTHER
CHALLENGE WITH THIS EVENT IS TRYING TO PINPOINT THE TIMING OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW. THE WATCH GOES STARTS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES 28
HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A LONG DURATION
EVENT BUT WE WENT WIDE IN TIME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN
WHEN THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS. ONE CAMP OF MODELS INDICATE
IT WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHILE OTHER
CLUSTER FAVORS LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

FARTHER NORTH INTO NERN PA AND NWRN NJ, WHERE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
HEAVIER SNOW IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT THIS POINT, LIGHT SNOW MAY
ONLY ACCUMULATE AN INCH OR TWO TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
WE`LL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE HEAVIER
SNOW BAND SHIFTING NORTHWARD. VERY FEW SCENARIOS CAN BE RULED OUT
AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY OPENS UP AND THE WAVE PASSES THRU THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. A KICKER SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. WE WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME BUT ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE
MINOR. THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE
A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN ITS WAKE, THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. TEMPS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S NORTH AND WEST OF THE FALL
LINE.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE
POLAR AIRMASS. FOR THE MOST PART, MODELS ARE SUPPRESSING THE TRACK
OF THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND DEEPENING IT TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO BRING
THE DEEPER ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER, THE 00Z
ECMWF, WITH SUPPORT FROM SOME OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, ARE SHOWING A
DEEPER AND MORE NORTHERN SYSTEM, WHICH COULD BRING YET ANOTHER
ROUND OF AT SNOW TO OUR REGION.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE IT INTO THE REGION FOR
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES COULD BE 15-20F BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND
AND WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KILG) AND THE
WESTERN TAF SITES (KABE AND KRDG) - MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. AFTER THAT, AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS, AND EVENTUALLY LOWER VISIBILITIES WITH
SNOW. LOWER CEILINGS COULD START TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z, BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THE SNOW TO MOVE IN UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ONCE SNOW
BEGINS TO MOVE IN, EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED. THE SNOW MAY
MIX WITH RAIN AT MIV AND ACY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY ESPECIALLY AT
TIMES WHEN IT IS LIGHTER. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING AND OVERALL IMPACTS AT THE AIRPORTS BUT WE CAN
SAY THAT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
WILL DEVELOP SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD NEAR THE ILG-PHL-ACY
CORRIDOR. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDS AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LIFR IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND DEVELOPS.

WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY, THEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR. BREEZY WLY WINDS
GUSTING TO 25 KT.

THURSDAY...VFR AND BREEZY NW WINDS GUSTING AOA 30 KT. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH.

FRIDAY...CURRENTLY FORECASTING VFR BUT WE ARE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO DEVELOP NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND
BRING MORE SNOW INTO THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST REPORT GALE GUSTS. EXPECT THESE
STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY. ALTHOUGH SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WINDS MAY LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.

ON THE DELAWARE BAY, EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNRISE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THEY MAY LINTER FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HAZARDOUS
SEAS AND PERIODS OF 25 KT GUSTS. THERE COULD BE A TEMPORARY LULL IN
THE WINDS ON TUESDAY CLOSE TO WHERE THE LOW DEVELOPS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GALES ARE
CERTAINLY A POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY NW WINDS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AT SANDY HOOK FOR BOTH HIGH
  TIDE CYCLES TODAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY NEAR THE THIS
  MORNINGS HIGH TIDE FOR OTHER LOCATIONS. THERE IS INCREASING
  POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TUESDAY MORNING
  HIGH TIDE.***

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDERGOES EXPLOSIVE
DEEPENING THROUGH TODAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
OUTER BANKS TONIGHT AND PASS OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN
ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF PAUSE
THIS AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY TONIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

ADDING TO THE TIDAL FLOODING POTENTIAL, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH DUE TO THE NEW MOON TODAY.

AT SANDY HOOK, WE ALREADY SAW A LARGE DEPARTURE WITH THE LOW TIDE
EARLIER, AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THUS, MODEL GUIDANCE AND A
LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM INDICATE THAT A DEPARTURE OF OVER 2 FEET
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE, OR JUST ENOUGH TO REACH
MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW
AND HIGH WAVE ACTION, EXPECT THAT IT COULD BE A SIMILAR STORY FOR
TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE, THOUGH THAT IS THE LOWER OF THE ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES. THUS THE WARNING INCLUDES BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES TODAY.
CONTINUED THE WATCH FOR TOMORROW`S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

FOR THE REST OF THE COAST...WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, WE EXPECT
A SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FT THIS MORNING. WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. WE HAVE ALSO TEMPERED DOWN THE
HIGH-BIASED ET AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE DUE TO A RESIDUAL BIAS OF
NEARLY 1 FOOT IN SPOTS. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS MORNING`S HIGH TIDE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE
OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WE REACH THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT REEDY
POINT, WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON EKMAN TRANSPORT IN A
NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE NONETHELESS.

THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE.

FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT/LONGER
FETCH TO THE WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST,
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE. WE AGREE
WITH THE STRONGER GFS WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY
RELAX NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ. NEVERTHELESS, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THE FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY
48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHER TIDAL
DEPARTURES COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO THE
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE, WE SIDED MORE
WITH THE HIGHER ETSS SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET, EVEN CONSIDERING THE
AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT WITH
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS UP TO PHILADELPHIA, GIVEN THE
MORE EASTERLY FLOW UP DELAWARE BAY. FOR THESE AREAS, A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101-102.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NJZ016>023-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...JOHNSON/KLEIN
MARINE...JOHNSON/KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 080848
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND FARTHER OUT TO
SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AFTER THIS LOW QUICKLY
MOVE OUT TO SEA EARLY TUESDAY, A WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
ORGANIZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE
FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE, A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF SHORE. STILL HAVEN`T SEEN PRECIP
PROPAGATE WEST FAR ENOUGH TO MOVE ON SHORE. HOWEVER, A BAND HAS
BECOME MORE DEFINED IN THE RADAR MOSAIC, AND STILL EXPECT THIS TO
MOVE ONTO THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHORE NEAR DAY BREAK. HRRR AND RAP
SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL. SO WILL CONTINUE THE THREE COUNTY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GENERALLY ONE TO 3 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

FOR THE REST OF THE REGION, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. ALREADY WINDS AT THE SHORE ARE
GUSTING 30 TO 35 KT (35 TO 40 MPH). HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE DECREASING QUICKLY AFTER DAY BREAK AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY,
SO THE WINDS WE ARE SEEING NOW ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL START TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LEADING
TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME, SO DO NOT EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THE MODELS HAVE
IN FACT TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EVEN SO, THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES OF SNOW IF
MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NR THE MID ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS PART. THE DISAGREEMENT
LIES IN THE DETAILS, WHICH ARE IMPORTANT.

YESTERDAY, THE ECMWF, WENT OUT ON ITS OWN, WITH A STRONGER AND
MORE EWD SOLN. IT CONTINUED THAT TREND ON THE OVERNIGHT RUN AND
AGAIN ON TODAY`S RUN. IT HAS A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW CENTER,
BRINGS THAT CENTER FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CST, AND HAS MUCH LESS
IMPACT ON OUR AREA.

WHILE THE ECMWF`S PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR THIS
WINTER, AND IT IS A CLEAR OUTLIER IN THIS CASE. HOWEVER, ITS
OVERALL STATISTICS MEAN IT`S SOLUTION CAN NOT BE TOTALLY IGNORED,
AND STRANGER THINGS HAVE HAPPENED.

THE REST OF THE OTHER MDLS DO BRING A GENLY LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. PRECIP WILL BEGIN LATER MON AND TEMPS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN OR SNOW THAT HAS A HARD TIME
ACCUMULATING IN MOST AREAS AND ON MANY SURFACES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AFTER SUNSET, THE SNOW WOULD START TO ACCUMULATE MORE. THE GUID
ALSO DIFFERS ON THE AREAS THAT WOULD SEE THE MOST QPF AND CHCS OF
HEAVIEST SNOWS. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL WOULD BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE, EVEN WITH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD, THE MDLS WERE
HAVING TROUBLE DECIPHERING THIS EVEN 12 HOURS BEFOREHAND.

SO FOR NOW, WILL ONLY MAKE INCREMENTAL CHANGES TO THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. ATTM, THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ADVY EVENT OR PSBLY LOW END WRNG
IN SOME AREAS.

ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS TEMPS DURG THE DAY ON TUE. TEMPS
WILL BE ABV FREEZING IN MANY AREAS, SO THERE CUD BE A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN SRN AND ERN AREAS, AND MUCH
LIKE WE HAD THE OTHER DAY, EVEN WHERE IT SNOWS, IT COULD END UP
ACCUMULATING MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS AND LESS TRAVELED ROADS DURG
DAYLIGHT HOURS, IF IT IS NOT COMING DOWN HARD.

THINGS SHUD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

THEN, A LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
CONUS. THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT A GENLY DRY AND BREEZY NWLY FLOW WED THRU SAT. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL NOT MAKE IT ABV FREEZING FROM THU ON. WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS. NRML LOWS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S NOW. SO WE ARE
LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS THAT WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NRML, AND WITH THE DAYS GETTING INCREASINGLY LONGER, THIS IS
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO ACCOMPLISH, ESPECIALLY FOR AN EXTENDD
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KILG) AND THE
WESTERN TAF SITES (KABE AND KRDG) - MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. AFTER THAT, AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS, AND EVENTUALLY LOWER VISIBILITIES WITH
SNOW. LOWER CEILINGS COULD START TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z, BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THE SNOW TO MOVE IN UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ONCE SNOW
BEGINS TO MOVE IN, EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING DURG THIS TIME AND FOR
FOR KPHL, KPNE, KMIV, KACY WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN OR MIX TO
SNOW MON NIGHT. ELSEWHERE WILL BE SNOW MON NIGHT. PRECIP SHUD BE
LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE CUD BE SOME MDT OR HVY BURSTS.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS. ON TUE, TEMPS SHUD WARM ENOUGH THAT FOR
KPHL, KPNE, KACY, KMIV SHUD AGAIN SEE A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN,
DEPENDING ON HOW WARM TEMPS GET.  LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WED...SOME LINGERING SHSN, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. BREEZY WITH W
TO NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU...VFR AND BREEZY WITH NW WIND GUSTING 25 TO 30 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST REPORT GALE GUSTS. EXPECT THESE
STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY. ALTHOUGH SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WINDS MAY LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.

ON THE DELAWARE BAY, EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNRISE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THEY MAY LINTER FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUE THROUGH WED...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME. IT IS PSBL THAT THERE CUD BE SOME GALES,
ESPECIALLY ON WED, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

THU...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS. NW WINDS BEHIND A CFP, WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR GALES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AT SANDY HOOK FOR BOTH HIGH
  TIDE CYCLES TODAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY NEAR THE THIS
  MORNINGS HIGH TIDE FOR OTHER LOCATIONS. THERE IS INCREASING
  POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TUESDAY MORNING
  HIGH TIDE***

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDERGOES EXPLOSIVE
DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE OUTER BANKS MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS
OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU
TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF PAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

SETTING THE STAGE, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH EARLY THIS WEEK,
TO DUE TO THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY.

AT SANDY HOOK, WE ALREADY SAW A LARGE DEPARTURE WITH THE LOW TIDE AT
SANDY HOOK EARLIER, AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THUS, MODEL
GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM INDICATE THAT A DEPARTURE OF
OVER 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE, OR JUST ENOUGH TO
REACH MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHEAST
FLOW AND HIGH WAVE ACTION, EXPECT THAT IT COULD BE A SIMILAR STORY
FOR TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE, THOUGH THAT IS THE LOWER OF THE ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES. THUS THE WARNING INCLUDES BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES TODAY.
CONTINUED THE WATCH FOR TOMORROWS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

FOR THE REST OF THE COAST...WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, WE EXPECT
A SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET. WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. WE HAVE ALSO TEMPERED DOWN THE HIGH-BIASED
ET AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE DUE TO A RESIDUAL OF NEARLY 1 FOOT IN SPOTS.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS
DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WE REACH
THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT REEDY POINT, WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON
EKMAN TRANSPORT IN A NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE
NONETHELESS.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ
AND DE OCEANFRONT FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE, AS MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER.

FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT/LONGER
FETCH TO THE WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST,
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE. WE AGREE
WITH THE STRONGER GFS WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY
RELAX NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ. NEVERTHELESS, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THE FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY
48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHER TIDAL
DEPARTURES COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO THE
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE, WE SIDED MORE
WITH THE HIGHER ETSS SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET, EVEN CONSIDERING THE
AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS UP TO PHILADELPHIA, GIVEN THE MORE
EASTERLY FLOW UP DELAWARE BAY. FOR THESE AREAS, A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101-102.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NJZ016>023-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 080848
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND FARTHER OUT TO
SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AFTER THIS LOW QUICKLY
MOVE OUT TO SEA EARLY TUESDAY, A WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
ORGANIZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE
FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE, A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF SHORE. STILL HAVEN`T SEEN PRECIP
PROPAGATE WEST FAR ENOUGH TO MOVE ON SHORE. HOWEVER, A BAND HAS
BECOME MORE DEFINED IN THE RADAR MOSAIC, AND STILL EXPECT THIS TO
MOVE ONTO THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHORE NEAR DAY BREAK. HRRR AND RAP
SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL. SO WILL CONTINUE THE THREE COUNTY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GENERALLY ONE TO 3 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

FOR THE REST OF THE REGION, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. ALREADY WINDS AT THE SHORE ARE
GUSTING 30 TO 35 KT (35 TO 40 MPH). HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE DECREASING QUICKLY AFTER DAY BREAK AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY,
SO THE WINDS WE ARE SEEING NOW ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL START TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LEADING
TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME, SO DO NOT EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THE MODELS HAVE
IN FACT TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EVEN SO, THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES OF SNOW IF
MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NR THE MID ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS PART. THE DISAGREEMENT
LIES IN THE DETAILS, WHICH ARE IMPORTANT.

YESTERDAY, THE ECMWF, WENT OUT ON ITS OWN, WITH A STRONGER AND
MORE EWD SOLN. IT CONTINUED THAT TREND ON THE OVERNIGHT RUN AND
AGAIN ON TODAY`S RUN. IT HAS A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW CENTER,
BRINGS THAT CENTER FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CST, AND HAS MUCH LESS
IMPACT ON OUR AREA.

WHILE THE ECMWF`S PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR THIS
WINTER, AND IT IS A CLEAR OUTLIER IN THIS CASE. HOWEVER, ITS
OVERALL STATISTICS MEAN IT`S SOLUTION CAN NOT BE TOTALLY IGNORED,
AND STRANGER THINGS HAVE HAPPENED.

THE REST OF THE OTHER MDLS DO BRING A GENLY LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. PRECIP WILL BEGIN LATER MON AND TEMPS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN OR SNOW THAT HAS A HARD TIME
ACCUMULATING IN MOST AREAS AND ON MANY SURFACES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AFTER SUNSET, THE SNOW WOULD START TO ACCUMULATE MORE. THE GUID
ALSO DIFFERS ON THE AREAS THAT WOULD SEE THE MOST QPF AND CHCS OF
HEAVIEST SNOWS. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL WOULD BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE, EVEN WITH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD, THE MDLS WERE
HAVING TROUBLE DECIPHERING THIS EVEN 12 HOURS BEFOREHAND.

SO FOR NOW, WILL ONLY MAKE INCREMENTAL CHANGES TO THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. ATTM, THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ADVY EVENT OR PSBLY LOW END WRNG
IN SOME AREAS.

ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS TEMPS DURG THE DAY ON TUE. TEMPS
WILL BE ABV FREEZING IN MANY AREAS, SO THERE CUD BE A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN SRN AND ERN AREAS, AND MUCH
LIKE WE HAD THE OTHER DAY, EVEN WHERE IT SNOWS, IT COULD END UP
ACCUMULATING MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS AND LESS TRAVELED ROADS DURG
DAYLIGHT HOURS, IF IT IS NOT COMING DOWN HARD.

THINGS SHUD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

THEN, A LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
CONUS. THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT A GENLY DRY AND BREEZY NWLY FLOW WED THRU SAT. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL NOT MAKE IT ABV FREEZING FROM THU ON. WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS. NRML LOWS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S NOW. SO WE ARE
LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS THAT WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NRML, AND WITH THE DAYS GETTING INCREASINGLY LONGER, THIS IS
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO ACCOMPLISH, ESPECIALLY FOR AN EXTENDD
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KILG) AND THE
WESTERN TAF SITES (KABE AND KRDG) - MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. AFTER THAT, AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS, AND EVENTUALLY LOWER VISIBILITIES WITH
SNOW. LOWER CEILINGS COULD START TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z, BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THE SNOW TO MOVE IN UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ONCE SNOW
BEGINS TO MOVE IN, EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING DURG THIS TIME AND FOR
FOR KPHL, KPNE, KMIV, KACY WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN OR MIX TO
SNOW MON NIGHT. ELSEWHERE WILL BE SNOW MON NIGHT. PRECIP SHUD BE
LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE CUD BE SOME MDT OR HVY BURSTS.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS. ON TUE, TEMPS SHUD WARM ENOUGH THAT FOR
KPHL, KPNE, KACY, KMIV SHUD AGAIN SEE A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN,
DEPENDING ON HOW WARM TEMPS GET.  LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WED...SOME LINGERING SHSN, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. BREEZY WITH W
TO NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU...VFR AND BREEZY WITH NW WIND GUSTING 25 TO 30 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST REPORT GALE GUSTS. EXPECT THESE
STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY. ALTHOUGH SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WINDS MAY LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.

ON THE DELAWARE BAY, EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNRISE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THEY MAY LINTER FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUE THROUGH WED...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME. IT IS PSBL THAT THERE CUD BE SOME GALES,
ESPECIALLY ON WED, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

THU...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS. NW WINDS BEHIND A CFP, WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR GALES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AT SANDY HOOK FOR BOTH HIGH
  TIDE CYCLES TODAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY NEAR THE THIS
  MORNINGS HIGH TIDE FOR OTHER LOCATIONS. THERE IS INCREASING
  POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TUESDAY MORNING
  HIGH TIDE***

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDERGOES EXPLOSIVE
DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE OUTER BANKS MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS
OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU
TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF PAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

SETTING THE STAGE, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH EARLY THIS WEEK,
TO DUE TO THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY.

AT SANDY HOOK, WE ALREADY SAW A LARGE DEPARTURE WITH THE LOW TIDE AT
SANDY HOOK EARLIER, AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THUS, MODEL
GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM INDICATE THAT A DEPARTURE OF
OVER 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE, OR JUST ENOUGH TO
REACH MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHEAST
FLOW AND HIGH WAVE ACTION, EXPECT THAT IT COULD BE A SIMILAR STORY
FOR TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE, THOUGH THAT IS THE LOWER OF THE ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES. THUS THE WARNING INCLUDES BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES TODAY.
CONTINUED THE WATCH FOR TOMORROWS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

FOR THE REST OF THE COAST...WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, WE EXPECT
A SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET. WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. WE HAVE ALSO TEMPERED DOWN THE HIGH-BIASED
ET AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE DUE TO A RESIDUAL OF NEARLY 1 FOOT IN SPOTS.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS
DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WE REACH
THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT REEDY POINT, WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON
EKMAN TRANSPORT IN A NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE
NONETHELESS.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ
AND DE OCEANFRONT FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE, AS MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER.

FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT/LONGER
FETCH TO THE WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST,
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE. WE AGREE
WITH THE STRONGER GFS WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY
RELAX NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ. NEVERTHELESS, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THE FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY
48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHER TIDAL
DEPARTURES COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO THE
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE, WE SIDED MORE
WITH THE HIGHER ETSS SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET, EVEN CONSIDERING THE
AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS UP TO PHILADELPHIA, GIVEN THE MORE
EASTERLY FLOW UP DELAWARE BAY. FOR THESE AREAS, A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101-102.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NJZ016>023-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 080848
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND FARTHER OUT TO
SEA TODAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT NEAR THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AFTER THIS LOW QUICKLY
MOVE OUT TO SEA EARLY TUESDAY, A WEAKER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
ORGANIZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR NORTH LATE
FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE, A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MAKE
IT INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF SHORE. STILL HAVEN`T SEEN PRECIP
PROPAGATE WEST FAR ENOUGH TO MOVE ON SHORE. HOWEVER, A BAND HAS
BECOME MORE DEFINED IN THE RADAR MOSAIC, AND STILL EXPECT THIS TO
MOVE ONTO THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY SHORE NEAR DAY BREAK. HRRR AND RAP
SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS WELL. SO WILL CONTINUE THE THREE COUNTY
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GENERALLY ONE TO 3 INCHES WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

FOR THE REST OF THE REGION, EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
DAY. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS. ALREADY WINDS AT THE SHORE ARE
GUSTING 30 TO 35 KT (35 TO 40 MPH). HOWEVER, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD BE DECREASING QUICKLY AFTER DAY BREAK AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY,
SO THE WINDS WE ARE SEEING NOW ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION, GENERALLY SNOW OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL START TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LEADING
TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIME, SO DO NOT EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND THE MODELS HAVE
IN FACT TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EVEN SO, THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES OF SNOW IF
MESOSCALE BANDS DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NR THE MID ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS PART. THE DISAGREEMENT
LIES IN THE DETAILS, WHICH ARE IMPORTANT.

YESTERDAY, THE ECMWF, WENT OUT ON ITS OWN, WITH A STRONGER AND
MORE EWD SOLN. IT CONTINUED THAT TREND ON THE OVERNIGHT RUN AND
AGAIN ON TODAY`S RUN. IT HAS A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW CENTER,
BRINGS THAT CENTER FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CST, AND HAS MUCH LESS
IMPACT ON OUR AREA.

WHILE THE ECMWF`S PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR THIS
WINTER, AND IT IS A CLEAR OUTLIER IN THIS CASE. HOWEVER, ITS
OVERALL STATISTICS MEAN IT`S SOLUTION CAN NOT BE TOTALLY IGNORED,
AND STRANGER THINGS HAVE HAPPENED.

THE REST OF THE OTHER MDLS DO BRING A GENLY LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. PRECIP WILL BEGIN LATER MON AND TEMPS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN OR SNOW THAT HAS A HARD TIME
ACCUMULATING IN MOST AREAS AND ON MANY SURFACES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AFTER SUNSET, THE SNOW WOULD START TO ACCUMULATE MORE. THE GUID
ALSO DIFFERS ON THE AREAS THAT WOULD SEE THE MOST QPF AND CHCS OF
HEAVIEST SNOWS. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL WOULD BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE, EVEN WITH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD, THE MDLS WERE
HAVING TROUBLE DECIPHERING THIS EVEN 12 HOURS BEFOREHAND.

SO FOR NOW, WILL ONLY MAKE INCREMENTAL CHANGES TO THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. ATTM, THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ADVY EVENT OR PSBLY LOW END WRNG
IN SOME AREAS.

ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS TEMPS DURG THE DAY ON TUE. TEMPS
WILL BE ABV FREEZING IN MANY AREAS, SO THERE CUD BE A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN SRN AND ERN AREAS, AND MUCH
LIKE WE HAD THE OTHER DAY, EVEN WHERE IT SNOWS, IT COULD END UP
ACCUMULATING MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS AND LESS TRAVELED ROADS DURG
DAYLIGHT HOURS, IF IT IS NOT COMING DOWN HARD.

THINGS SHUD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

THEN, A LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
CONUS. THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT A GENLY DRY AND BREEZY NWLY FLOW WED THRU SAT. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL NOT MAKE IT ABV FREEZING FROM THU ON. WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS. NRML LOWS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S NOW. SO WE ARE
LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS THAT WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NRML, AND WITH THE DAYS GETTING INCREASINGLY LONGER, THIS IS
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO ACCOMPLISH, ESPECIALLY FOR AN EXTENDD
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KILG) AND THE
WESTERN TAF SITES (KABE AND KRDG) - MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. AFTER THAT, AN APPROACHING TROUGH
WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS, AND EVENTUALLY LOWER VISIBILITIES WITH
SNOW. LOWER CEILINGS COULD START TO MOVE IN BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z, BUT
DO NOT EXPECT THE SNOW TO MOVE IN UNTIL AFTER 00Z. ONCE SNOW
BEGINS TO MOVE IN, EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING DURG THIS TIME AND FOR
FOR KPHL, KPNE, KMIV, KACY WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN OR MIX TO
SNOW MON NIGHT. ELSEWHERE WILL BE SNOW MON NIGHT. PRECIP SHUD BE
LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE CUD BE SOME MDT OR HVY BURSTS.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS. ON TUE, TEMPS SHUD WARM ENOUGH THAT FOR
KPHL, KPNE, KACY, KMIV SHUD AGAIN SEE A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN,
DEPENDING ON HOW WARM TEMPS GET.  LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WED...SOME LINGERING SHSN, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. BREEZY WITH W
TO NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU...VFR AND BREEZY WITH NW WIND GUSTING 25 TO 30 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A GALE WARNING CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST REPORT GALE GUSTS. EXPECT THESE
STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID DAY BEFORE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY. ALTHOUGH SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEAS AND WINDS MAY LINGER FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY.

ON THE DELAWARE BAY, EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNRISE. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE THAT THEY MAY LINTER FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEYOND SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUE THROUGH WED...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYS WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME. IT IS PSBL THAT THERE CUD BE SOME GALES,
ESPECIALLY ON WED, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

THU...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS. NW WINDS BEHIND A CFP, WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR GALES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY AT SANDY HOOK FOR BOTH HIGH
  TIDE CYCLES TODAY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY NEAR THE THIS
  MORNINGS HIGH TIDE FOR OTHER LOCATIONS. THERE IS INCREASING
  POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING NEAR THE TUESDAY MORNING
  HIGH TIDE***

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDERGOES EXPLOSIVE
DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE OUTER BANKS MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS
OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU
TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF PAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

SETTING THE STAGE, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH EARLY THIS WEEK,
TO DUE TO THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY.

AT SANDY HOOK, WE ALREADY SAW A LARGE DEPARTURE WITH THE LOW TIDE AT
SANDY HOOK EARLIER, AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED SHARPLY AND ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THUS, MODEL
GUIDANCE AND A LOCAL REGRESSION PROGRAM INDICATE THAT A DEPARTURE OF
OVER 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE, OR JUST ENOUGH TO
REACH MODERATE FLOODING THRESHOLDS. WITH THE CONTINUED NORTHEAST
FLOW AND HIGH WAVE ACTION, EXPECT THAT IT COULD BE A SIMILAR STORY
FOR TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE, THOUGH THAT IS THE LOWER OF THE ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES. THUS THE WARNING INCLUDES BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES TODAY.
CONTINUED THE WATCH FOR TOMORROWS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

FOR THE REST OF THE COAST...WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES, WE EXPECT
A SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET. WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. WE HAVE ALSO TEMPERED DOWN THE HIGH-BIASED
ET AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE DUE TO A RESIDUAL OF NEARLY 1 FOOT IN SPOTS.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS
DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WE REACH
THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT REEDY POINT, WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON
EKMAN TRANSPORT IN A NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE
NONETHELESS.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ
AND DE OCEANFRONT FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE, AS MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO LINGER.

FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT/LONGER
FETCH TO THE WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST,
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE. WE AGREE
WITH THE STRONGER GFS WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY
RELAX NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ. NEVERTHELESS, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THE FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY
48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHER TIDAL
DEPARTURES COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO THE
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE, WE SIDED MORE
WITH THE HIGHER ETSS SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET, EVEN CONSIDERING THE
AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS UP TO PHILADELPHIA, GIVEN THE MORE
EASTERLY FLOW UP DELAWARE BAY. FOR THESE AREAS, A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-101-102.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR NJZ016>023-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ012>014.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 080726
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
226 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. BEHIND THESE TWO LOWS, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION AROUND MIDWEEK AND
WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIDDLESEX,
MONMOUTH, AND OCEAN COUNTIES. THOUGH RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS CONTRACTING, HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW A FURTHER WEST TRACK
WITH THE LOW, WITH THE PRIME PERIOD FOR PRECIP FROM 12 TO 15Z. DID
NOT EXTEND IT FURTHER SOUTH AS IT LOOKS LIKE ACROSS CAPE MAY AND
ATLANTIC COUNTIES, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAST ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP STARTS TO MOVE OUT OF THOSE AREAS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BEFORE THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL
DEVELOPS ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS/TEMPS WERE MADE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS EAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS. IT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY ON THE WEST SIDE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. AS OF NOW THE QUESTION
FOR OUR AREA IS HOW FAR WEST. BASED ON RECENT MODEL DIAGNOSTICS
AND COLLABORATION, WE EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO
REMAIN RIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE, THEN EXTEND TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST. THE NAM AND SREF ARE CURRENTLY THOUGHT TO BE HIGH WITH
THEIR AMOUNTS, WHILE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF GIVE A BETTER
EXPECTATION OF AMOUNTS.ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE HOW MUCH WOULD
ACCUMULATE BASED ON TEMPERATURES, AS TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET
WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING. SO FOR NOW WE ARE EXPECTING AROUND
AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS, WITH
1-2 INCHES ACROSS AREAS FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN OCEAN AND
MONMOUTH COUNTIES AND EASTERN MIDDLESEX. WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
WINTER ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME AND LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR FUTURE
GUIDANCE AND SEE IF A SHORT FUSED ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY, THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE, A
WEAKENING BACKDOOR FRONT MAY SAG DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS AS
WELL. THERE MAY LIKELY BE SOME SNOWFALL REMAINING ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW, AND AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA, IT COULD HELP ENHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS. SO THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. AGAIN, THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE
AND TO OUR NORTHEAST, SO WHILE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL, WE DO NOT EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS TO BE MET AT THIS
TIME. ESPECIALLY IF SNOWFALL MIXES WITH OR CHANGES OVER TO RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NR THE MID ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS PART. THE DISAGREEMENT
LIES IN THE DETAILS, WHICH ARE IMPORTANT.

YESTERDAY, THE ECMWF, WENT OUT ON ITS OWN, WITH A STRONGER AND
MORE EWD SOLN. IT CONTINUED THAT TREND ON THE OVERNIGHT RUN AND
AGAIN ON TODAY`S RUN. IT HAS A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW CENTER,
BRINGS THAT CENTER FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CST, AND HAS MUCH LESS
IMPACT ON OUR AREA.

WHILE THE ECMWF`S PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR THIS
WINTER, AND IT IS A CLEAR OUTLIER IN THIS CASE. HOWEVER, ITS
OVERALL STATISTICS MEAN IT`S SOLUTION CAN NOT BE TOTALLY IGNORED,
AND STRANGER THINGS HAVE HAPPENED.

THE REST OF THE OTHER MDLS DO BRING A GENLY LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. PRECIP WILL BEGIN LATER MON AND TEMPS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN OR SNOW THAT HAS A HARD TIME
ACCUMULATING IN MOST AREAS AND ON MANY SURFACES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AFTER SUNSET, THE SNOW WOULD START TO ACCUMULATE MORE. THE GUID
ALSO DIFFERS ON THE AREAS THAT WOULD SEE THE MOST QPF AND CHCS OF
HEAVIEST SNOWS. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL WOULD BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE, EVEN WITH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD, THE MDLS WERE
HAVING TROUBLE DECIPHERING THIS EVEN 12 HOURS BEFOREHAND.

SO FOR NOW, WILL ONLY MAKE INCREMENTAL CHANGES TO THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. ATTM, THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ADVY EVENT OR PSBLY LOW END WRNG
IN SOME AREAS.

ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS TEMPS DURG THE DAY ON TUE. TEMPS
WILL BE ABV FREEZING IN MANY AREAS, SO THERE CUD BE A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN SRN AND ERN AREAS, AND MUCH
LIKE WE HAD THE OTHER DAY, EVEN WHERE IT SNOWS, IT COULD END UP
ACCUMULATING MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS AND LESS TRAVELED ROADS DURG
DAYLIGHT HOURS, IF IT IS NOT COMING DOWN HARD.

THINGS SHUD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

THEN, A LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
CONUS. THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT A GENLY DRY AND BREEZY NWLY FLOW WED THRU SAT. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL NOT MAKE IT ABV FREEZING FROM THU ON. WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS. NRML LOWS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S NOW. SO WE ARE
LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS THAT WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NRML, AND WITH THE DAYS GETTING INCREASINGLY LONGER, THIS IS
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO ACCOMPLISH, ESPECIALLY FOR AN EXTENDD
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER ON
THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. CIGS WILL DECREASE INTO
THE MVFR RANGE FOR AWHILE LATE TONIGHT AND THEN IMPROVE MONDAY.
MORE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SNOWFALL. BASED ON LATEST MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND COLLABORATION, WE
EXPECT SNOWFALL TO REMAIN ACROSS MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND OFFSHORE. THE MAIN TAF SITES THAT WOULD BE
AFFECTED WOULD BE ACY, WHICH COULD EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS WITH
ANY SNOWFALL, IN ADDITION TO MIV WHICH COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME
LIGHTER SNOWFALL AS WELL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS FOR
THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD, AND LIKELY BECOME GUSTY 20-25
KNOTS BY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE GUSTY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF BY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT AND TUE...PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING DURG THIS TIME AND FOR
FOR KPHL, KPNE, KMIV, KACY WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN OR MIX TO
SNOW MON NIGHT. ELSEWHERE WILL BE SNOW MON NIGHT. PRECIP SHUD BE
LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE CUD BE SOME MDT OR HVY BURSTS.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS. ON TUE, TEMPS SHUD WARM ENOUGH THAT FOR
KPHL, KPNE, KACY, KMIV SHUD AGAIN SEE A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN,
DEPENDING ON HOW WARM TEMPS GET.  LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WED...SOME LINGERING SHSN, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. BREEZY WITH W
TO NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU...VFR AND BREEZY WITH NW WIND GUSTING 25 TO 30 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING EAST OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH MONDAY
AND THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
AND WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYS WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT IS PSBL THAT THERE CUD BE SOME GALES,
ESPECIALLY ON WED, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

THU...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS. NW WINDS BEHIND A CFP, WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR GALES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY NEAR THE MONDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE. THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE***

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDERGOES EXPLOSIVE
DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE OUTER BANKS MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS
OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU
TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF PAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

SETTING THE STAGE, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH EARLY THIS WEEK,
TO DUE TO THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, WE THINK THE NAM BACKS THE WINDS
TOO MUCH /MORE NORTHERLY/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE, POSSIBLY DUE TO
AN ISALLOBARIC EFFECT WITH THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE SYSTEM, AND IT WAS
DEEMED AN OUTLIER. WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS QUICKLY RAMPING UP TO GALE FORCE JUST OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT,
WE EXPECT A SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET. WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY COAST WHERE POCKETS OF MODERATE FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE,
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A GREATER COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW. WE
HAVE ALSO TEMPERED DOWN THE HIGH-BIASED ET AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE DUE
TO A RESIDUAL OF NEARLY 1 FOOT IN SPOTS. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NJ AND
DE OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WE REACH THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT REEDY
POINT, WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON EKMAN TRANSPORT IN A
NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE NONETHELESS.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT
FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE, AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER.

FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT/LONGER
FETCH TO THE WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST,
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE. WE AGREE
WITH THE STRONGER GFS WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY
RELAX NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ. NEVERTHELESS, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THE FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE HAD
NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
HIGHER TIDAL DEPARTURES COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO
THE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE, WE SIDED
MORE WITH THE HIGHER ETSS SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET, EVEN CONSIDERING
THE AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT
WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS UP TO PHILADELPHIA, GIVEN
THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW UP DELAWARE BAY. FOR THESE AREAS, A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 080726
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
226 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. BEHIND THESE TWO LOWS, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION AROUND MIDWEEK AND
WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIDDLESEX,
MONMOUTH, AND OCEAN COUNTIES. THOUGH RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS CONTRACTING, HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW A FURTHER WEST TRACK
WITH THE LOW, WITH THE PRIME PERIOD FOR PRECIP FROM 12 TO 15Z. DID
NOT EXTEND IT FURTHER SOUTH AS IT LOOKS LIKE ACROSS CAPE MAY AND
ATLANTIC COUNTIES, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAST ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP STARTS TO MOVE OUT OF THOSE AREAS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BEFORE THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL
DEVELOPS ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS/TEMPS WERE MADE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS EAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS. IT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY ON THE WEST SIDE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. AS OF NOW THE QUESTION
FOR OUR AREA IS HOW FAR WEST. BASED ON RECENT MODEL DIAGNOSTICS
AND COLLABORATION, WE EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO
REMAIN RIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE, THEN EXTEND TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST. THE NAM AND SREF ARE CURRENTLY THOUGHT TO BE HIGH WITH
THEIR AMOUNTS, WHILE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF GIVE A BETTER
EXPECTATION OF AMOUNTS.ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE HOW MUCH WOULD
ACCUMULATE BASED ON TEMPERATURES, AS TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET
WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING. SO FOR NOW WE ARE EXPECTING AROUND
AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS, WITH
1-2 INCHES ACROSS AREAS FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN OCEAN AND
MONMOUTH COUNTIES AND EASTERN MIDDLESEX. WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
WINTER ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME AND LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR FUTURE
GUIDANCE AND SEE IF A SHORT FUSED ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY, THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE, A
WEAKENING BACKDOOR FRONT MAY SAG DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS AS
WELL. THERE MAY LIKELY BE SOME SNOWFALL REMAINING ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW, AND AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA, IT COULD HELP ENHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS. SO THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. AGAIN, THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE
AND TO OUR NORTHEAST, SO WHILE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL, WE DO NOT EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS TO BE MET AT THIS
TIME. ESPECIALLY IF SNOWFALL MIXES WITH OR CHANGES OVER TO RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NR THE MID ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS PART. THE DISAGREEMENT
LIES IN THE DETAILS, WHICH ARE IMPORTANT.

YESTERDAY, THE ECMWF, WENT OUT ON ITS OWN, WITH A STRONGER AND
MORE EWD SOLN. IT CONTINUED THAT TREND ON THE OVERNIGHT RUN AND
AGAIN ON TODAY`S RUN. IT HAS A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW CENTER,
BRINGS THAT CENTER FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CST, AND HAS MUCH LESS
IMPACT ON OUR AREA.

WHILE THE ECMWF`S PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR THIS
WINTER, AND IT IS A CLEAR OUTLIER IN THIS CASE. HOWEVER, ITS
OVERALL STATISTICS MEAN IT`S SOLUTION CAN NOT BE TOTALLY IGNORED,
AND STRANGER THINGS HAVE HAPPENED.

THE REST OF THE OTHER MDLS DO BRING A GENLY LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. PRECIP WILL BEGIN LATER MON AND TEMPS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN OR SNOW THAT HAS A HARD TIME
ACCUMULATING IN MOST AREAS AND ON MANY SURFACES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AFTER SUNSET, THE SNOW WOULD START TO ACCUMULATE MORE. THE GUID
ALSO DIFFERS ON THE AREAS THAT WOULD SEE THE MOST QPF AND CHCS OF
HEAVIEST SNOWS. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL WOULD BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE, EVEN WITH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD, THE MDLS WERE
HAVING TROUBLE DECIPHERING THIS EVEN 12 HOURS BEFOREHAND.

SO FOR NOW, WILL ONLY MAKE INCREMENTAL CHANGES TO THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. ATTM, THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ADVY EVENT OR PSBLY LOW END WRNG
IN SOME AREAS.

ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS TEMPS DURG THE DAY ON TUE. TEMPS
WILL BE ABV FREEZING IN MANY AREAS, SO THERE CUD BE A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN SRN AND ERN AREAS, AND MUCH
LIKE WE HAD THE OTHER DAY, EVEN WHERE IT SNOWS, IT COULD END UP
ACCUMULATING MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS AND LESS TRAVELED ROADS DURG
DAYLIGHT HOURS, IF IT IS NOT COMING DOWN HARD.

THINGS SHUD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

THEN, A LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
CONUS. THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT A GENLY DRY AND BREEZY NWLY FLOW WED THRU SAT. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL NOT MAKE IT ABV FREEZING FROM THU ON. WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS. NRML LOWS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S NOW. SO WE ARE
LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS THAT WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NRML, AND WITH THE DAYS GETTING INCREASINGLY LONGER, THIS IS
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO ACCOMPLISH, ESPECIALLY FOR AN EXTENDD
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER ON
THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. CIGS WILL DECREASE INTO
THE MVFR RANGE FOR AWHILE LATE TONIGHT AND THEN IMPROVE MONDAY.
MORE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SNOWFALL. BASED ON LATEST MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND COLLABORATION, WE
EXPECT SNOWFALL TO REMAIN ACROSS MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND OFFSHORE. THE MAIN TAF SITES THAT WOULD BE
AFFECTED WOULD BE ACY, WHICH COULD EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS WITH
ANY SNOWFALL, IN ADDITION TO MIV WHICH COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME
LIGHTER SNOWFALL AS WELL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS FOR
THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD, AND LIKELY BECOME GUSTY 20-25
KNOTS BY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE GUSTY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF BY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT AND TUE...PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING DURG THIS TIME AND FOR
FOR KPHL, KPNE, KMIV, KACY WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN OR MIX TO
SNOW MON NIGHT. ELSEWHERE WILL BE SNOW MON NIGHT. PRECIP SHUD BE
LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE CUD BE SOME MDT OR HVY BURSTS.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS. ON TUE, TEMPS SHUD WARM ENOUGH THAT FOR
KPHL, KPNE, KACY, KMIV SHUD AGAIN SEE A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN,
DEPENDING ON HOW WARM TEMPS GET.  LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WED...SOME LINGERING SHSN, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. BREEZY WITH W
TO NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU...VFR AND BREEZY WITH NW WIND GUSTING 25 TO 30 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING EAST OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH MONDAY
AND THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
AND WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYS WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT IS PSBL THAT THERE CUD BE SOME GALES,
ESPECIALLY ON WED, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

THU...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS. NW WINDS BEHIND A CFP, WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR GALES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY NEAR THE MONDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE. THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE***

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDERGOES EXPLOSIVE
DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE OUTER BANKS MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS
OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU
TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF PAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

SETTING THE STAGE, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH EARLY THIS WEEK,
TO DUE TO THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, WE THINK THE NAM BACKS THE WINDS
TOO MUCH /MORE NORTHERLY/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE, POSSIBLY DUE TO
AN ISALLOBARIC EFFECT WITH THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE SYSTEM, AND IT WAS
DEEMED AN OUTLIER. WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS QUICKLY RAMPING UP TO GALE FORCE JUST OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT,
WE EXPECT A SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET. WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY COAST WHERE POCKETS OF MODERATE FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE,
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A GREATER COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW. WE
HAVE ALSO TEMPERED DOWN THE HIGH-BIASED ET AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE DUE
TO A RESIDUAL OF NEARLY 1 FOOT IN SPOTS. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NJ AND
DE OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WE REACH THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT REEDY
POINT, WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON EKMAN TRANSPORT IN A
NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE NONETHELESS.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT
FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE, AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER.

FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT/LONGER
FETCH TO THE WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST,
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE. WE AGREE
WITH THE STRONGER GFS WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY
RELAX NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ. NEVERTHELESS, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THE FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE HAD
NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
HIGHER TIDAL DEPARTURES COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO
THE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE, WE SIDED
MORE WITH THE HIGHER ETSS SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET, EVEN CONSIDERING
THE AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT
WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS UP TO PHILADELPHIA, GIVEN
THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW UP DELAWARE BAY. FOR THESE AREAS, A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 080726
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
226 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. BEHIND THESE TWO LOWS, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION AROUND MIDWEEK AND
WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MIDDLESEX,
MONMOUTH, AND OCEAN COUNTIES. THOUGH RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS CONTRACTING, HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO SHOW A FURTHER WEST TRACK
WITH THE LOW, WITH THE PRIME PERIOD FOR PRECIP FROM 12 TO 15Z. DID
NOT EXTEND IT FURTHER SOUTH AS IT LOOKS LIKE ACROSS CAPE MAY AND
ATLANTIC COUNTIES, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT DROP FAST ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIP STARTS TO MOVE OUT OF THOSE AREAS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BEFORE THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL
DEVELOPS ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUDS/TEMPS WERE MADE WITH THE EVENING UPDATE.

LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS EAST
OF CAPE HATTERAS. IT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND SLIGHTLY ON THE WEST SIDE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. AS OF NOW THE QUESTION
FOR OUR AREA IS HOW FAR WEST. BASED ON RECENT MODEL DIAGNOSTICS
AND COLLABORATION, WE EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO
REMAIN RIGHT NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE, THEN EXTEND TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST. THE NAM AND SREF ARE CURRENTLY THOUGHT TO BE HIGH WITH
THEIR AMOUNTS, WHILE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF GIVE A BETTER
EXPECTATION OF AMOUNTS.ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE HOW MUCH WOULD
ACCUMULATE BASED ON TEMPERATURES, AS TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET
WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE FREEZING. SO FOR NOW WE ARE EXPECTING AROUND
AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS, WITH
1-2 INCHES ACROSS AREAS FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN OCEAN AND
MONMOUTH COUNTIES AND EASTERN MIDDLESEX. WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY
WINTER ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME AND LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR FUTURE
GUIDANCE AND SEE IF A SHORT FUSED ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ON MONDAY, THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE, A
WEAKENING BACKDOOR FRONT MAY SAG DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS AS
WELL. THERE MAY LIKELY BE SOME SNOWFALL REMAINING ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW, AND AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA, IT COULD HELP ENHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS. SO THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. AGAIN, THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE
AND TO OUR NORTHEAST, SO WHILE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL, WE DO NOT EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS TO BE MET AT THIS
TIME. ESPECIALLY IF SNOWFALL MIXES WITH OR CHANGES OVER TO RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NR THE MID ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS PART. THE DISAGREEMENT
LIES IN THE DETAILS, WHICH ARE IMPORTANT.

YESTERDAY, THE ECMWF, WENT OUT ON ITS OWN, WITH A STRONGER AND
MORE EWD SOLN. IT CONTINUED THAT TREND ON THE OVERNIGHT RUN AND
AGAIN ON TODAY`S RUN. IT HAS A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW CENTER,
BRINGS THAT CENTER FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CST, AND HAS MUCH LESS
IMPACT ON OUR AREA.

WHILE THE ECMWF`S PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR THIS
WINTER, AND IT IS A CLEAR OUTLIER IN THIS CASE. HOWEVER, ITS
OVERALL STATISTICS MEAN IT`S SOLUTION CAN NOT BE TOTALLY IGNORED,
AND STRANGER THINGS HAVE HAPPENED.

THE REST OF THE OTHER MDLS DO BRING A GENLY LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. PRECIP WILL BEGIN LATER MON AND TEMPS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN OR SNOW THAT HAS A HARD TIME
ACCUMULATING IN MOST AREAS AND ON MANY SURFACES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AFTER SUNSET, THE SNOW WOULD START TO ACCUMULATE MORE. THE GUID
ALSO DIFFERS ON THE AREAS THAT WOULD SEE THE MOST QPF AND CHCS OF
HEAVIEST SNOWS. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL WOULD BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE, EVEN WITH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD, THE MDLS WERE
HAVING TROUBLE DECIPHERING THIS EVEN 12 HOURS BEFOREHAND.

SO FOR NOW, WILL ONLY MAKE INCREMENTAL CHANGES TO THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. ATTM, THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ADVY EVENT OR PSBLY LOW END WRNG
IN SOME AREAS.

ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS TEMPS DURG THE DAY ON TUE. TEMPS
WILL BE ABV FREEZING IN MANY AREAS, SO THERE CUD BE A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN SRN AND ERN AREAS, AND MUCH
LIKE WE HAD THE OTHER DAY, EVEN WHERE IT SNOWS, IT COULD END UP
ACCUMULATING MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS AND LESS TRAVELED ROADS DURG
DAYLIGHT HOURS, IF IT IS NOT COMING DOWN HARD.

THINGS SHUD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

THEN, A LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
CONUS. THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT A GENLY DRY AND BREEZY NWLY FLOW WED THRU SAT. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL NOT MAKE IT ABV FREEZING FROM THU ON. WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS. NRML LOWS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S NOW. SO WE ARE
LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS THAT WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NRML, AND WITH THE DAYS GETTING INCREASINGLY LONGER, THIS IS
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO ACCOMPLISH, ESPECIALLY FOR AN EXTENDD
PD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER ON
THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. CIGS WILL DECREASE INTO
THE MVFR RANGE FOR AWHILE LATE TONIGHT AND THEN IMPROVE MONDAY.
MORE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SNOWFALL. BASED ON LATEST MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND COLLABORATION, WE
EXPECT SNOWFALL TO REMAIN ACROSS MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND OFFSHORE. THE MAIN TAF SITES THAT WOULD BE
AFFECTED WOULD BE ACY, WHICH COULD EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS WITH
ANY SNOWFALL, IN ADDITION TO MIV WHICH COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME
LIGHTER SNOWFALL AS WELL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS FOR
THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD, AND LIKELY BECOME GUSTY 20-25
KNOTS BY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE GUSTY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF BY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT AND TUE...PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING DURG THIS TIME AND FOR
FOR KPHL, KPNE, KMIV, KACY WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN OR MIX TO
SNOW MON NIGHT. ELSEWHERE WILL BE SNOW MON NIGHT. PRECIP SHUD BE
LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE CUD BE SOME MDT OR HVY BURSTS.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS. ON TUE, TEMPS SHUD WARM ENOUGH THAT FOR
KPHL, KPNE, KACY, KMIV SHUD AGAIN SEE A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN,
DEPENDING ON HOW WARM TEMPS GET.  LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WED...SOME LINGERING SHSN, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. BREEZY WITH W
TO NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU...VFR AND BREEZY WITH NW WIND GUSTING 25 TO 30 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING EAST OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH MONDAY
AND THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
AND WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYS WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT IS PSBL THAT THERE CUD BE SOME GALES,
ESPECIALLY ON WED, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

THU...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS. NW WINDS BEHIND A CFP, WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR GALES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY NEAR THE MONDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE. THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE***

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDERGOES EXPLOSIVE
DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE OUTER BANKS MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS
OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU
TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF PAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

SETTING THE STAGE, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH EARLY THIS WEEK,
TO DUE TO THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, WE THINK THE NAM BACKS THE WINDS
TOO MUCH /MORE NORTHERLY/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE, POSSIBLY DUE TO
AN ISALLOBARIC EFFECT WITH THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE SYSTEM, AND IT WAS
DEEMED AN OUTLIER. WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS QUICKLY RAMPING UP TO GALE FORCE JUST OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT,
WE EXPECT A SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET. WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY COAST WHERE POCKETS OF MODERATE FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE,
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A GREATER COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW. WE
HAVE ALSO TEMPERED DOWN THE HIGH-BIASED ET AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE DUE
TO A RESIDUAL OF NEARLY 1 FOOT IN SPOTS. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NJ AND
DE OCEANFRONT, AS WELL AS DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WE REACH THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT REEDY
POINT, WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON EKMAN TRANSPORT IN A
NORTHEAST FLOW, BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE NONETHELESS.

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT
FOR THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE, AS MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER.

FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT/LONGER
FETCH TO THE WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST,
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE. WE AGREE
WITH THE STRONGER GFS WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY
RELAX NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ. NEVERTHELESS, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THE FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE HAD
NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
HIGHER TIDAL DEPARTURES COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO
THE ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE, WE SIDED
MORE WITH THE HIGHER ETSS SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET, EVEN CONSIDERING
THE AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR THE NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT
WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS UP TO PHILADELPHIA, GIVEN
THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW UP DELAWARE BAY. FOR THESE AREAS, A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
     020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





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