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000
FXUS61 KPHI 010728
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
328 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE
OVERHEAD OF THE REGION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES AND LESS
CLOUD COVER, TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE SHORE. THE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN
LEADS TO A PRIME SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, THE ON
SHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
YESTERDAYS HIGHS FOR LOCATIONS WHERE THE SEA BREEZE ARRIVES BEFORE
MID AFTERNOON.

FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER INLAND, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN ADVISORY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES. THUS COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG PRIMARILY IN
RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER, ALTHOUGH THE TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE AUGUST.
HIGHS ON THU WED AND THU WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NRML, AND
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, IT WILL BE LESS THAN
IDEAL.

HOWEVER, BY THU AND FRI A BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION
AND BRING AT LEAST A CHC OF SOME PRECIP. WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN LATELY, SO ANY IS WELCOME. QPF AMTS ARE LOW AND
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPS WILL
BE MUCH COOLER (CLOSER TO SEASONAL) AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A
BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN
AND BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOWER HUMIDITY. SAT CUD BE A TAD
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CST, BUT THAT SHUD BE THE WORST
WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME
FOG LOCALIZED TO RIVER VALLEYS AND THE PINE BARRENS THROUGH 15Z, AND
AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 09Z, BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES.

WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT REMAIN
LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KT). WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD,
IT LOOKS TO BE A PRIME SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT ONLY AT
THE COASTAL (KACY AND KMIV) AND DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL,
KPNE, KTTN, AND KILG). THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS
PSBL MVFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SHRA/TSRA ARE PSBL, WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THERE CUD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT...VFR CONDS EXPECTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, SOME GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS.

FRI THRU SAT...WIND BECOMES MORE ENELY AND INCREASES AS A BACKDOOR
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. SEAS WILL RISE AND THEY COULD
APPROACH 5 FEET BY LATE FRI, THEN DECREASING BY LATER SAT. WIND
CUD GUST 25 TO 30 KT FRI INTO SAT. BY LATER SAT, CONDS SHUD DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 010728
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
328 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THEN, ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BY THIS AFTERNOON, THE AXIS OF THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE
OVERHEAD OF THE REGION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES AND LESS
CLOUD COVER, TODAY SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THE ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS NEAR THE SHORE. THE BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN
LEADS TO A PRIME SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, THE ON
SHORE FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
YESTERDAYS HIGHS FOR LOCATIONS WHERE THE SEA BREEZE ARRIVES BEFORE
MID AFTERNOON.

FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER INLAND, IT STILL LOOKS LIKE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN ADVISORY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT SHOULD BE A CARBON COPY OF THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH ONE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO LEAD TO LOWS NEAR THE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES. THUS COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG PRIMARILY IN
RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF SEPTEMBER, ALTHOUGH THE TEMPS WILL FEEL MORE LIKE AUGUST.
HIGHS ON THU WED AND THU WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABV NRML, AND
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, IT WILL BE LESS THAN
IDEAL.

HOWEVER, BY THU AND FRI A BACKDOOR CDFNT WILL MOVE THRU THE REGION
AND BRING AT LEAST A CHC OF SOME PRECIP. WE HAVEN`T SEEN MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAIN LATELY, SO ANY IS WELCOME. QPF AMTS ARE LOW AND
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPS WILL
BE MUCH COOLER (CLOSER TO SEASONAL) AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A
BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND IN STORE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BACK IN
AND BRING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LOWER HUMIDITY. SAT CUD BE A TAD
BREEZY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CST, BUT THAT SHUD BE THE WORST
WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME
FOG LOCALIZED TO RIVER VALLEYS AND THE PINE BARRENS THROUGH 15Z, AND
AGAIN TONIGHT AFTER 09Z, BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
IN VISIBILITIES.

WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY VEER TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT REMAIN
LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KT). WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD,
IT LOOKS TO BE A PRIME SET UP FOR A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE INCLUDED A SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY NOT ONLY AT
THE COASTAL (KACY AND KMIV) AND DELAWARE VALLEY TAF SITES (KPHL,
KPNE, KTTN, AND KILG). THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS
PSBL MVFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU THROUGH FRI...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SHRA/TSRA ARE PSBL, WITH
PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. THERE CUD ALSO BE SOME FOG AS A
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT...VFR CONDS EXPECTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 15KT, AND
SEAS SHOULD STAY AROUND OR BELOW 2 FT.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, SOME GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS.

FRI THRU SAT...WIND BECOMES MORE ENELY AND INCREASES AS A BACKDOOR
CDFNT MOVES THRU THE REGION. SEAS WILL RISE AND THEY COULD
APPROACH 5 FEET BY LATE FRI, THEN DECREASING BY LATER SAT. WIND
CUD GUST 25 TO 30 KT FRI INTO SAT. BY LATER SAT, CONDS SHUD DROP
BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010046
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
846 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD MORNING IN MAINLY RURAL AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ACROSS THE AREA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA TO HELP CREATE ANY
CONVECTION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES, AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
925/850 MB TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED, TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOW
90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATION. HOWEVER, WITH LOW ENOUGH DEWPOINTS,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT INDICES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN
ADVISORY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HOT DAYS ON THE HORIZON AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 90S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
60S, IT WILL FEEL HUMID AND UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO ROTATE TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND IT LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT, LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
REALITY, THE FRONT IS MORE COOL THAN COLD. IT WILL HELP TO LOWER
THOSE PESKY DEWPOINTS TO A MORE COMFORTABLE RANGE AND LOWER THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEW WEEK. OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIT OR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-
NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, NEAR KABE AND KRDG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SEAS AND
THEY COULD APPROACH 5 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDING SEAS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BRING US BACK TO SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
3 FT SEAS WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 6 SEC...AND A SOUTHWEST WIND IN
THE 10 KT RANGE...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LOW RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ON TUESDAY FOR BOTH THE NJ AND DE COASTS.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA/MIKETTA
RIP CURRENTS...MIKETTA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 010046
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
846 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD MORNING IN MAINLY RURAL AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ACROSS THE AREA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA TO HELP CREATE ANY
CONVECTION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES, AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
925/850 MB TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED, TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOW
90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATION. HOWEVER, WITH LOW ENOUGH DEWPOINTS,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT INDICES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN
ADVISORY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HOT DAYS ON THE HORIZON AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 90S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
60S, IT WILL FEEL HUMID AND UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO ROTATE TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND IT LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT, LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
REALITY, THE FRONT IS MORE COOL THAN COLD. IT WILL HELP TO LOWER
THOSE PESKY DEWPOINTS TO A MORE COMFORTABLE RANGE AND LOWER THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEW WEEK. OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIT OR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-
NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, NEAR KABE AND KRDG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SEAS AND
THEY COULD APPROACH 5 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDING SEAS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BRING US BACK TO SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
3 FT SEAS WITH A PERIOD OF AROUND 6 SEC...AND A SOUTHWEST WIND IN
THE 10 KT RANGE...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LOW RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ON TUESDAY FOR BOTH THE NJ AND DE COASTS.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA/MIKETTA
RIP CURRENTS...MIKETTA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 312229
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
629 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
88D REFLECTIVITY INDICATES VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY, AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING ABATING, THE MENTION OF EVENING
SHOWERS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE WEATHER GRIDS. ANY ISOLATED
SHOWER THAT MAY STILL POP UP EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE
INCONSEQUENTAL. PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD STILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN MAINLY RURAL AREAAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ACROSS THE AREA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA TO HELP CREATE ANY
CONVECTION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES, AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
925/850 MB TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED, TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOW
90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATION. HOWEVER, WITH LOW ENOUGH DEWPOINTS,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT INDICES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN
ADVISORY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HOT DAYS ON THE HORIZON AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 90S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
60S, IT WILL FEEL HUMID AND UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO ROTATE TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND IT LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT, LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
REALITY, THE FRONT IS MORE COOL THAN COLD. IT WILL HELP TO LOWER
THOSE PESKY DEWPOINTS TO A MORE COMFORTABLE RANGE AND LOWER THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEW WEEK. OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIT OR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-
NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, NEAR KABE AND KRDG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SEAS AND
THEY COULD APPROACH 5 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDING SEAS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BRING US BACK TO SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE INTO THIS EVENING,
AS WE WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH
AS 20 KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY
FULL MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 312229
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
629 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
88D REFLECTIVITY INDICATES VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY, AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING ABATING, THE MENTION OF EVENING
SHOWERS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE WEATHER GRIDS. ANY ISOLATED
SHOWER THAT MAY STILL POP UP EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE
INCONSEQUENTAL. PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD STILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN MAINLY RURAL AREAAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ACROSS THE AREA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA TO HELP CREATE ANY
CONVECTION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES, AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
925/850 MB TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED, TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOW
90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATION. HOWEVER, WITH LOW ENOUGH DEWPOINTS,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT INDICES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN
ADVISORY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HOT DAYS ON THE HORIZON AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 90S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
60S, IT WILL FEEL HUMID AND UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO ROTATE TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND IT LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT, LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
REALITY, THE FRONT IS MORE COOL THAN COLD. IT WILL HELP TO LOWER
THOSE PESKY DEWPOINTS TO A MORE COMFORTABLE RANGE AND LOWER THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEW WEEK. OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIT OR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-
NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, NEAR KABE AND KRDG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SEAS AND
THEY COULD APPROACH 5 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDING SEAS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BRING US BACK TO SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE INTO THIS EVENING,
AS WE WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH
AS 20 KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY
FULL MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...NIERENBERG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 312229
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
629 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
88D REFLECTIVITY INDICATES VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY, AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING ABATING, THE MENTION OF EVENING
SHOWERS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE WEATHER GRIDS. ANY ISOLATED
SHOWER THAT MAY STILL POP UP EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD BE
INCONSEQUENTAL. PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD STILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SOME PATCHY FOG IN MAINLY RURAL AREAAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ACROSS THE AREA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA TO HELP CREATE ANY
CONVECTION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES, AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
925/850 MB TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED, TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOW
90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATION. HOWEVER, WITH LOW ENOUGH DEWPOINTS,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT INDICES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN
ADVISORY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HOT DAYS ON THE HORIZON AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 90S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
60S, IT WILL FEEL HUMID AND UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO ROTATE TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND IT LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT, LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
REALITY, THE FRONT IS MORE COOL THAN COLD. IT WILL HELP TO LOWER
THOSE PESKY DEWPOINTS TO A MORE COMFORTABLE RANGE AND LOWER THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEW WEEK. OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIT OR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-
NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, NEAR KABE AND KRDG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SEAS AND
THEY COULD APPROACH 5 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDING SEAS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BRING US BACK TO SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE INTO THIS EVENING,
AS WE WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH
AS 20 KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY
FULL MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...NIERENBERG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 311938 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THEN PARTIAL CLEARING CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR
RURAL AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ACROSS THE AREA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA TO HELP CREATE ANY
CONVECTION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES, AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
925/850 MB TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED, TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOW
90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATION. HOWEVER, WITH LOW ENOUGH DEWPOINTS,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT INDICES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN
ADVISORY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HOT DAYS ON THE HORIZON AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 90S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
60S, IT WILL FEEL HUMID AND UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO ROTATE TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND IT LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT, LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
REALITY, THE FRONT IS MORE COOL THAN COLD. IT WILL HELP TO LOWER
THOSE PESKY DEWPOINTS TO A MORE COMFORTABLE RANGE AND LOWER THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEW WEEK. OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIT OR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA, SO WE`VE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY A PARTICULAR TAF SITE WILL BE AFFECTED, OR IF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK MORE IMMINENT, WE`LL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS
WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, NEAR KABE AND KRDG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SEAS AND
THEY COULD APPROACH 5 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDING SEAS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BRING US BACK TO SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311938 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THEN PARTIAL CLEARING CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR
RURAL AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ACROSS THE AREA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA TO HELP CREATE ANY
CONVECTION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES, AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
925/850 MB TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED, TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOW
90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATION. HOWEVER, WITH LOW ENOUGH DEWPOINTS,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT INDICES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN
ADVISORY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HOT DAYS ON THE HORIZON AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 90S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
60S, IT WILL FEEL HUMID AND UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO ROTATE TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND IT LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT, LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
REALITY, THE FRONT IS MORE COOL THAN COLD. IT WILL HELP TO LOWER
THOSE PESKY DEWPOINTS TO A MORE COMFORTABLE RANGE AND LOWER THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEW WEEK. OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIT OR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA, SO WE`VE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY A PARTICULAR TAF SITE WILL BE AFFECTED, OR IF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK MORE IMMINENT, WE`LL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS
WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, NEAR KABE AND KRDG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SEAS AND
THEY COULD APPROACH 5 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDING SEAS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BRING US BACK TO SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 311938 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THEN PARTIAL CLEARING CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR
RURAL AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ACROSS THE AREA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA TO HELP CREATE ANY
CONVECTION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES, AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
925/850 MB TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED, TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOW
90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATION. HOWEVER, WITH LOW ENOUGH DEWPOINTS,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT INDICES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN
ADVISORY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HOT DAYS ON THE HORIZON AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 90S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
60S, IT WILL FEEL HUMID AND UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO ROTATE TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND IT LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT, LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
REALITY, THE FRONT IS MORE COOL THAN COLD. IT WILL HELP TO LOWER
THOSE PESKY DEWPOINTS TO A MORE COMFORTABLE RANGE AND LOWER THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEW WEEK. OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIT OR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA, SO WE`VE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY A PARTICULAR TAF SITE WILL BE AFFECTED, OR IF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK MORE IMMINENT, WE`LL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS
WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, NEAR KABE AND KRDG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SEAS AND
THEY COULD APPROACH 5 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDING SEAS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BRING US BACK TO SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311938
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THEN PARTIAL CLEARING CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR
RURAL AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ACROSS THE AREA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA TO HELP CREATE ANY
CONVECTION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES, AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
925/850 MB TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED, TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOW
90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATION. HOWEVER, WITH LOW ENOUGH DEWPOINTS,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT INDICES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN
ADVISORY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HOT DAYS ON THE HORIZON AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 90S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
60S, IT WILL FEEL HUMID AND UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO ROTATE TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND IT LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT, LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
REALITY, THE FRONT IS MORE COOL THAN COLD. IT WILL HELP TO LOWER
THOSE PESKY DEWPOINTS TO A MORE COMFORTABLE RANGE AND LOWER THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEW WEEK. OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIT OR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA, SO WE`VE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY A PARTICULAR TAF SITE WILL BE AFFECTED, OR IF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK MORE IMMINENT, WE`LL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS
WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, NEAR KABE AND KRDG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SEAS AND
THEY COULD APPROACH 5 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDING SEAS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BRING US BACK TO SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311938
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THEN PARTIAL CLEARING CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR
RURAL AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ACROSS THE AREA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA TO HELP CREATE ANY
CONVECTION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES, AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
925/850 MB TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED, TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOW
90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATION. HOWEVER, WITH LOW ENOUGH DEWPOINTS,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT INDICES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN
ADVISORY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HOT DAYS ON THE HORIZON AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 90S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
60S, IT WILL FEEL HUMID AND UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO ROTATE TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND IT LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT, LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
REALITY, THE FRONT IS MORE COOL THAN COLD. IT WILL HELP TO LOWER
THOSE PESKY DEWPOINTS TO A MORE COMFORTABLE RANGE AND LOWER THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEW WEEK. OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIT OR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA, SO WE`VE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY A PARTICULAR TAF SITE WILL BE AFFECTED, OR IF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK MORE IMMINENT, WE`LL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS
WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, NEAR KABE AND KRDG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SEAS AND
THEY COULD APPROACH 5 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDING SEAS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BRING US BACK TO SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 311938 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THEN PARTIAL CLEARING CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR
RURAL AREAS.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH MAY REDEVELOP
DURING THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP ACROSS THE AREA. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO AFFECT THE AREA TO HELP CREATE ANY
CONVECTION. WITH AN INCREASE IN THICKNESSES, AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN
925/850 MB TEMPERATURES, WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED, TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN MONDAY. LOW
90S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE COAST AND HIGHER ELEVATION. HOWEVER, WITH LOW ENOUGH DEWPOINTS,
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING HEAT INDICES TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AN
ADVISORY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HOT DAYS ON THE HORIZON AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE INTO THE 90S AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE
60S, IT WILL FEEL HUMID AND UNCOMFORTABLE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE BIG FACTOR IN OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVERHEAD AND THEN
STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT BY THURSDAY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED
TO ROTATE TOWARDS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
BEFORE IT ARRIVES AND IT LOOKS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPARK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES AS A RESULT. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR.

A WEAK COLD FRONT, LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A BACKDOOR FRONT, WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. IN
REALITY, THE FRONT IS MORE COOL THAN COLD. IT WILL HELP TO LOWER
THOSE PESKY DEWPOINTS TO A MORE COMFORTABLE RANGE AND LOWER THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID/UPPER 80S THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEW WEEK. OVERALL, THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY AND THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE HIT OR MISS FOR MOST OF OUR AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE AREA, SO WE`VE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT
LOOKS MORE LIKELY A PARTICULAR TAF SITE WILL BE AFFECTED, OR IF
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK MORE IMMINENT, WE`LL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE MID TEENS
WILL REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET.
WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SOME MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, NEAR KABE AND KRDG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE REGION.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS THIS EVENING, BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BELOW ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS, SOME
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SEAS AND
THEY COULD APPROACH 5 FEET BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDING SEAS ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BRING US BACK TO SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE AREA
WATERS. WINDS WILL BE 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 311741
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
141 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, SO
WE`LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS, BUT HAVE EXPANDED THE SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTH THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS
THAT IF THIS AREA HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT IT
WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. IF IT DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWARD, IT WOULD LIKELY MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

WITH AT LEAST TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDSAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA, SO WE`VE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON. IF IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY A PARTICULAR TAF WILL BE
AFFECTED, WE`LL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

GENERAL SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BEGIN TO GUST IN THE MID TEENS THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311741
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
141 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, SO
WE`LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS, BUT HAVE EXPANDED THE SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTH THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS
THAT IF THIS AREA HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT IT
WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. IF IT DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWARD, IT WOULD LIKELY MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

WITH AT LEAST TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDSAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA, SO WE`VE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON. IF IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY A PARTICULAR TAF WILL BE
AFFECTED, WE`LL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

GENERAL SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BEGIN TO GUST IN THE MID TEENS THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 311741
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
141 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, SO
WE`LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS, BUT HAVE EXPANDED THE SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTH THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS
THAT IF THIS AREA HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT IT
WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. IF IT DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWARD, IT WOULD LIKELY MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

WITH AT LEAST TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDSAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA, SO WE`VE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON. IF IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY A PARTICULAR TAF WILL BE
AFFECTED, WE`LL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

GENERAL SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BEGIN TO GUST IN THE MID TEENS THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 311741
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
141 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, SO
WE`LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS, BUT HAVE EXPANDED THE SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTH THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS
THAT IF THIS AREA HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT IT
WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. IF IT DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWARD, IT WOULD LIKELY MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

WITH AT LEAST TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDSAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA, SO WE`VE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAFS THIS
AFTERNOON. IF IT LOOKS MORE LIKELY A PARTICULAR TAF WILL BE
AFFECTED, WE`LL AMEND AS NECESSARY.

GENERAL SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BEGIN TO GUST IN THE MID TEENS THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, WITH SOME AREAS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE/CALM. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311601
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1201 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SPRINKLES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON MAY HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, SO WE`LL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS,
BUT HAVE EXPANDED THE SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO.
THERE IS ALSO A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
VIRGINIA THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION
IS THAT IF THIS AREA HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT IT
WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. IF IT DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWARD, IT WOULD LIKELY MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

WITH AT LEAST TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH, COMBINED
WITH A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE ARE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311601
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1201 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SPRINKLES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON MAY HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, SO WE`LL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS,
BUT HAVE EXPANDED THE SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
WOULD NOT BE SUPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO.
THERE IS ALSO A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
VIRGINIA THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION
IS THAT IF THIS AREA HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT IT
WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. IF IT DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTHWARD, IT WOULD LIKELY MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

WITH AT LEAST TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH, COMBINED
WITH A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE ARE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 311551
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1151 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SPRINKLES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON MAY HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, SO WE`LL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS,
BUT HAVE EXPANDED THE SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE EAST. WOULD NOT BE
SUPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. THERE IS ALSO
A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA THAT IS
SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT IF THIS
AREA HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT IT WILL REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH. IF IT DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWARD, IT WOULD
LIKELY MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS.

WITH AT LEAST TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WK CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW DURG THE AFTN. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A STRAY SHWR, MAINLY N AND
W, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 311551
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1151 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SPRINKLES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA, COMBINED WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON MAY HELP CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, SO WE`LL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS,
BUT HAVE EXPANDED THE SHOWERS FARTHER TO THE EAST. WOULD NOT BE
SUPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. THERE IS ALSO
A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA THAT IS
SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT IF THIS
AREA HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THAT IT WILL REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH. IF IT DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWARD, IT WOULD
LIKELY MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS.

WITH AT LEAST TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WK CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW DURG THE AFTN. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A STRAY SHWR, MAINLY N AND
W, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311511
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1111 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SPRINKLES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TODAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, SO WE`LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THE
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT IF THIS AREA HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON THAT IT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. IF IT DOES MOVE A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWARD, IT WOULD LIKELY MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

WITH AT LEAST TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WK CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW DURG THE AFTN. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A STRAY SHWR, MAINLY N AND
W, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 311511
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1111 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SPRINKLES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TODAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, SO WE`LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THE
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT IF THIS AREA HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON THAT IT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. IF IT DOES MOVE A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWARD, IT WOULD LIKELY MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

WITH AT LEAST TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WK CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW DURG THE AFTN. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A STRAY SHWR, MAINLY N AND
W, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311511
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1111 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SPRINKLES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TODAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, SO WE`LL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS ALSO A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR
SOUTH ACROSS VIRGINIA THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THE
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT IF THIS AREA HOLDS TOGETHER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON THAT IT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. IF IT DOES MOVE A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTHWARD, IT WOULD LIKELY MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

WITH AT LEAST TO SOME PARTIAL SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WK CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW DURG THE AFTN. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A STRAY SHWR, MAINLY N AND
W, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. POPS ARE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 311020
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRES NR JAMES BAY WILL MOVE EWD AND BRING A WK
CDFNT ACRS THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THIS FNT COUPLED WITH SOME S/WV
ENERGY CUD TRIGGER A STRAY SHWR, MAINLY N AND W.  HOWEVER, POPS AND
AREAL COVERAGE ARE BOTH VERY SMALL.  WILL CARRY SCHC, BUT THAT CUD
END UP BEING OVERDONE.  OTHERWISE, A BROAD H5 RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH SWLY FLOW.  TEMPS AND DEWPTS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS ON
SUNDAY, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

LATEST RADAR SHOWED SOME SPRINKLES MAINLY ACRS THE SRN AREAS. SO
HAVE INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST
OF THE GUID DID NOT HAVE THIS PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MUCH LIKE THERE WAS SUN MRNG, THERE CUD BE SOME SPOTTY MVFR FG
THAT WILL EARLY THIS AM THAT WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WK CDFNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW DURG THE AFTN. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A STRAY
SHWR, MAINLY N AND W, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY. POPS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311020
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRES NR JAMES BAY WILL MOVE EWD AND BRING A WK
CDFNT ACRS THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THIS FNT COUPLED WITH SOME S/WV
ENERGY CUD TRIGGER A STRAY SHWR, MAINLY N AND W.  HOWEVER, POPS AND
AREAL COVERAGE ARE BOTH VERY SMALL.  WILL CARRY SCHC, BUT THAT CUD
END UP BEING OVERDONE.  OTHERWISE, A BROAD H5 RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH SWLY FLOW.  TEMPS AND DEWPTS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS ON
SUNDAY, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

LATEST RADAR SHOWED SOME SPRINKLES MAINLY ACRS THE SRN AREAS. SO
HAVE INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST
OF THE GUID DID NOT HAVE THIS PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MUCH LIKE THERE WAS SUN MRNG, THERE CUD BE SOME SPOTTY MVFR FG
THAT WILL EARLY THIS AM THAT WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WK CDFNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW DURG THE AFTN. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A STRAY
SHWR, MAINLY N AND W, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY. POPS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 311020
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRES NR JAMES BAY WILL MOVE EWD AND BRING A WK
CDFNT ACRS THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THIS FNT COUPLED WITH SOME S/WV
ENERGY CUD TRIGGER A STRAY SHWR, MAINLY N AND W.  HOWEVER, POPS AND
AREAL COVERAGE ARE BOTH VERY SMALL.  WILL CARRY SCHC, BUT THAT CUD
END UP BEING OVERDONE.  OTHERWISE, A BROAD H5 RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH SWLY FLOW.  TEMPS AND DEWPTS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS ON
SUNDAY, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

LATEST RADAR SHOWED SOME SPRINKLES MAINLY ACRS THE SRN AREAS. SO
HAVE INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST
OF THE GUID DID NOT HAVE THIS PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MUCH LIKE THERE WAS SUN MRNG, THERE CUD BE SOME SPOTTY MVFR FG
THAT WILL EARLY THIS AM THAT WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WK CDFNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW DURG THE AFTN. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A STRAY
SHWR, MAINLY N AND W, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY. POPS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311020
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRES NR JAMES BAY WILL MOVE EWD AND BRING A WK
CDFNT ACRS THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THIS FNT COUPLED WITH SOME S/WV
ENERGY CUD TRIGGER A STRAY SHWR, MAINLY N AND W.  HOWEVER, POPS AND
AREAL COVERAGE ARE BOTH VERY SMALL.  WILL CARRY SCHC, BUT THAT CUD
END UP BEING OVERDONE.  OTHERWISE, A BROAD H5 RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH SWLY FLOW.  TEMPS AND DEWPTS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS ON
SUNDAY, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

LATEST RADAR SHOWED SOME SPRINKLES MAINLY ACRS THE SRN AREAS. SO
HAVE INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE GRIDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST
OF THE GUID DID NOT HAVE THIS PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MUCH LIKE THERE WAS SUN MRNG, THERE CUD BE SOME SPOTTY MVFR FG
THAT WILL EARLY THIS AM THAT WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WK CDFNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW DURG THE AFTN. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A STRAY
SHWR, MAINLY N AND W, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY. POPS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 310730
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRES NR JAMES BAY WILL MOVE EWD AND BRING A WK
CDFNT ACRS THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THIS FNT COUPLED WITH SOME S/WV
ENERGY CUD TRIGGER A STRAY SHWR, MAINLY N AND W.  HOWEVER, POPS AND
AREAL COVERAGE ARE BOTH VERY SMALL.  WILL CARRY SCHC, BUT THAT CUD
END UP BEING OVERDONE.  OTHERWISE, A BROAD H5 RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH SWLY FLOW.  TEMPS AND DEWPTS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS ON
SUNDAY, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MUCH LIKE THERE WAS SUN MRNG, THERE CUD BE SOME SPOTTY MVFR FG
THAT WILL EARLY THIS AM THAT WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WK CDFNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW DURG THE AFTN. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A STRAY
SHWR, MAINLY N AND W, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY. POPS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...NIERENBERG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 310730
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN
NEW ENGLAND COAST, PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRES NR JAMES BAY WILL MOVE EWD AND BRING A WK
CDFNT ACRS THE REGION THIS AFTN.  THIS FNT COUPLED WITH SOME S/WV
ENERGY CUD TRIGGER A STRAY SHWR, MAINLY N AND W.  HOWEVER, POPS AND
AREAL COVERAGE ARE BOTH VERY SMALL.  WILL CARRY SCHC, BUT THAT CUD
END UP BEING OVERDONE.  OTHERWISE, A BROAD H5 RIDGE REMAIN IN PLACE
WITH SWLY FLOW.  TEMPS AND DEWPTS WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS ON
SUNDAY, BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND DUE TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
BEHIND THE FROPA, SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN AND EXPECT A
CLEARING SKY AND GENLY LIGHT WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT, THICKNESSES INCREASE AND SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY
SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING. A FEW MODELS SHOW AN EMBEDDED UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, WHICH COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL DISAGREEMENT AND
CONTINUITY ON THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH MAY
BE SLIDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AT THIS POINT,
THINK THE FASTER (WITH THE FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT) AND FURTHER SOUTH (MOVING COMPLETELY SOUTH OF THE
REGION) SOLUTIONS ARE THE MOST LIKELY GIVEN THE LARGE MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID, I DIDN`T GO
QUITE AS LOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF,
GIVEN THE STILL LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH, THE NEXT
QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE SURFACE HIGH STALLS. AT THIS POINT, IT
IS LOOKING LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAD TO
ON SHORE FLOW FOR OUR REGION, PROVIDING FURTHER RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT, AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MUCH LIKE THERE WAS SUN MRNG, THERE CUD BE SOME SPOTTY MVFR FG
THAT WILL EARLY THIS AM THAT WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. A WK CDFNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW DURG THE AFTN. IT MAY TOUCH OFF A STRAY
SHWR, MAINLY N AND W, BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
DRY. POPS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FCSTS.

DO NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A WSHFT BEHIND IT.  WIND SHUD BE GENLY OUT OF
THE SW AND WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN SPOTS THIS AFTN.  GUSTS
COULD REACH ABOUT 15 KT, BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT, TO BELOW 5 KTS
OR LESS IN MOST AREAS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BR POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING, AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE NEAR KABE AND KRDG IN
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO POSSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A COLD FRONT IF IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE AROUND 3.  WIND WILL GENLY BE SW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS WE
WILL HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FT, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 20
KT AND S SWELL. WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY FULL
MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310126
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED MAINLY NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
PROBABLY PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND AS IT
DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS
TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE
OVERALL LIFT, SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
CONVECTIVE CORES FROM GETTING TO ROBUST. THE INITIATION EARLY ON
APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY TERRAIN IN NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE MAIN CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FLOW BELOW ABOUT
10000 FEET IS 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

WE THEREFORE KEPT LOW POPS POPS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, NORTH
AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA. CLOUDS WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN PARTLY AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE DEW POINTS
TEND TO HANG NEAR THE MUGGY LEVEL. A MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR THE
LOW TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURES WERE
SLOW TO FALL IN SPOTS AND LOWS HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD A FEW DEGREES
IN SPOTS WITH THE 9:30 PM UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOME ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE REACHES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS PROVIDES SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEARBY. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, AND
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL DOES NOT HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND SINCE THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW WE
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION ATTM. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS ARE AROUND TO START THE DAY AS SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AROUND DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE, A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE
AROUND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. A RATHER
WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ANY NOTABLE COOLING ALOFT IS MOSTLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT,
WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS MOS FOR MOST PLACES REGARDING
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: IN GENERAL, A FAIRLY STRONG SUMMER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH ONLY A
MINOR WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY, AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SEWD TOWARD THE MARITIMES
(55N/55W). THAT PERMITS A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALOFT
LATE THIS COMING WORKWEEK AND SO AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
SLIPS SOUTHWARD. ITS COOLING EFFECTIVENESS FELT PRIMARILY ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 29TH WAS AVERAGING NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL. KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES
BELOW NORMAL. KTTN KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING ~1 TO ~2F ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL WARM THESE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH.

CALENDAR DAY DEPARTURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES N AND NW
OF KPHL OVER E PA AND THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NJ. THEREAFTER, FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD STILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
NORMAL, POSSIBLY STILL 10 DEGREES ABOVE, ESPECIALLY NW OF I-95.
HOW MUCH COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY AND BEYOND IS DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST IMPACT OF
COOLING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE COASTS.
SST`S ARE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SO THE COOLING EFFECTIVENESS IS LESS.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 12Z/30 GFS MOS WAS THE
PRIMARY GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT, 12Z/30 MEX MOS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN THE 1521Z/30 WPC GRIDDED
ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE EXCEPTION HERE...WAS MEX AND WPC
MIN TEMPS WERE BLENDED 50 50 FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT.

HAZARDS...

A HEAT WAVE WILL BE IN PROGRESS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE I-95
CORRIDOR EASTWARD TO NEAR THE COASTS, ITS DURATION SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 4 DAYS WHETHER OR NOT IT BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON OR MONDAY.
THE QUESTION, DOES IT BREAK ANYTIME FRIDAY-SUNDAY OR JUST GO ON
AND ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE INTERIOR NEAR AND NW OF I-95.
IT IS POSSIBLE THE I-95 CORRIDOR COULD SEE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE
BEYOND 6 DAYS (TODAY-SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK SOLID FOR 90-95F
AND FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE OF 90 PLUS). MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THIS HEAT WAVE SO FAR ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE WE WILL NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR EITHER OF ANY THREE AFTERNOONS
BETWEEN THIS COMING WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM DRENCHING RAINS? NEAR THE COOL FRONT FRIDAY BUT OVERALL
AS PER WPC, THE DRY SPELL IS GOING TO LAST QUITE AWHILE, POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE START OF LABOR DAY WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...FAIR AND HOT AFTERNOONS WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE, MAINLY NW NJ AND E
PA. LIGHT WINDS TEND TO BE W-NW DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SMALL CHC
OF CONVECTION E PA AND NNJ WED AFTN AND THU AFTN PER INSTABILITY
INDICATORS INCLUDING KI.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN HEAVY SOUTHWARD
MOVING CONVECTION BUT ONLY IN A PWAT OF 1.6 INCHES. SLOW MOVERS-
GULLY WASHERS WHERE THEY OCCUR BUT LITTLE PREDICTABILITY ATTM EXCEPT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST INLAND.  POTENTIALLY STILL
90F VCNTY KPHL SWWD AND WESTWARD ON FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS HIGHER,
AROUND 70F AND 1400J ML CAPE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS POOR FOR ANY
SVR. STRATUS FOG POTENTIAL AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY I-80
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEKEND...FAIR AND VERY WARM. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING
CONVECTION POCONOS TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND KRDG PER ECMWF KI AND
A TENDENCY FOR UPSLOPE FLOW-LIFT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE THESE NEXT 6 DAYS: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO REMAIN AWAY
FROM THE TAF SITES ATTM. THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR
SOME VERY PATCHY FOG TOWARD SUNRISE, IT LOOKS TOO PATCHY FOR TAF
INCLUSION ATTM. PERIODS OF CLOUDS AROUND 20,000 FEET WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AND
MAY BE COMPLEMENTED WITH SOME CUMULUS AROUND 5,000 FEET. WIND
GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 20 KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS AS
WELL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH THE GUSTS.


OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG/ST POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING, MAINLY NEAR KABE- KRDG. LIGHT WIND, TENDS BE NW EACH
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE.  IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE N OF I-80 LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. MVFR
OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN NELY FLOW NEAR AND N OF I-80 WITH
POSSIBLE IFR VSBY IN FOG AT NIGHT.

OVERALL LONG TERM AVIATION FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC WHICH WILL KEEP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.
AN INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING AND A SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION, AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SEAS
OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE ACROSS OUR
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...ATLC SEAS MAY INCREASE AS AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BUT
ATTM, BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL DECREASE TO 9-10
SECONDS ON MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15
MPH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF MODERATE RIP CURRENTS,
PARTICULARLY FOR NEW JERSEY.

IN THE MEANTIME, SWIM SAFELY WITHIN THE WATCHFUL SAFETY VIEW OF
OUR BEACH PATROLS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...GAINES/DRAG
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG/GAINES




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310126
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED MAINLY NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
PROBABLY PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND AS IT
DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS
TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE
OVERALL LIFT, SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
CONVECTIVE CORES FROM GETTING TO ROBUST. THE INITIATION EARLY ON
APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY TERRAIN IN NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE MAIN CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FLOW BELOW ABOUT
10000 FEET IS 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

WE THEREFORE KEPT LOW POPS POPS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, NORTH
AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA. CLOUDS WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN PARTLY AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE DEW POINTS
TEND TO HANG NEAR THE MUGGY LEVEL. A MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR THE
LOW TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURES WERE
SLOW TO FALL IN SPOTS AND LOWS HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD A FEW DEGREES
IN SPOTS WITH THE 9:30 PM UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOME ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE REACHES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS PROVIDES SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEARBY. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, AND
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL DOES NOT HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND SINCE THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW WE
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION ATTM. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS ARE AROUND TO START THE DAY AS SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AROUND DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE, A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE
AROUND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. A RATHER
WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ANY NOTABLE COOLING ALOFT IS MOSTLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT,
WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS MOS FOR MOST PLACES REGARDING
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: IN GENERAL, A FAIRLY STRONG SUMMER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH ONLY A
MINOR WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY, AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SEWD TOWARD THE MARITIMES
(55N/55W). THAT PERMITS A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALOFT
LATE THIS COMING WORKWEEK AND SO AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
SLIPS SOUTHWARD. ITS COOLING EFFECTIVENESS FELT PRIMARILY ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 29TH WAS AVERAGING NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL. KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES
BELOW NORMAL. KTTN KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING ~1 TO ~2F ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL WARM THESE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH.

CALENDAR DAY DEPARTURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES N AND NW
OF KPHL OVER E PA AND THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NJ. THEREAFTER, FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD STILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
NORMAL, POSSIBLY STILL 10 DEGREES ABOVE, ESPECIALLY NW OF I-95.
HOW MUCH COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY AND BEYOND IS DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST IMPACT OF
COOLING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE COASTS.
SST`S ARE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SO THE COOLING EFFECTIVENESS IS LESS.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 12Z/30 GFS MOS WAS THE
PRIMARY GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT, 12Z/30 MEX MOS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN THE 1521Z/30 WPC GRIDDED
ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE EXCEPTION HERE...WAS MEX AND WPC
MIN TEMPS WERE BLENDED 50 50 FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT.

HAZARDS...

A HEAT WAVE WILL BE IN PROGRESS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE I-95
CORRIDOR EASTWARD TO NEAR THE COASTS, ITS DURATION SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 4 DAYS WHETHER OR NOT IT BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON OR MONDAY.
THE QUESTION, DOES IT BREAK ANYTIME FRIDAY-SUNDAY OR JUST GO ON
AND ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE INTERIOR NEAR AND NW OF I-95.
IT IS POSSIBLE THE I-95 CORRIDOR COULD SEE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE
BEYOND 6 DAYS (TODAY-SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK SOLID FOR 90-95F
AND FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE OF 90 PLUS). MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THIS HEAT WAVE SO FAR ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE WE WILL NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR EITHER OF ANY THREE AFTERNOONS
BETWEEN THIS COMING WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM DRENCHING RAINS? NEAR THE COOL FRONT FRIDAY BUT OVERALL
AS PER WPC, THE DRY SPELL IS GOING TO LAST QUITE AWHILE, POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE START OF LABOR DAY WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...FAIR AND HOT AFTERNOONS WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE, MAINLY NW NJ AND E
PA. LIGHT WINDS TEND TO BE W-NW DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SMALL CHC
OF CONVECTION E PA AND NNJ WED AFTN AND THU AFTN PER INSTABILITY
INDICATORS INCLUDING KI.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN HEAVY SOUTHWARD
MOVING CONVECTION BUT ONLY IN A PWAT OF 1.6 INCHES. SLOW MOVERS-
GULLY WASHERS WHERE THEY OCCUR BUT LITTLE PREDICTABILITY ATTM EXCEPT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST INLAND.  POTENTIALLY STILL
90F VCNTY KPHL SWWD AND WESTWARD ON FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS HIGHER,
AROUND 70F AND 1400J ML CAPE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS POOR FOR ANY
SVR. STRATUS FOG POTENTIAL AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY I-80
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEKEND...FAIR AND VERY WARM. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING
CONVECTION POCONOS TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND KRDG PER ECMWF KI AND
A TENDENCY FOR UPSLOPE FLOW-LIFT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE THESE NEXT 6 DAYS: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO REMAIN AWAY
FROM THE TAF SITES ATTM. THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR
SOME VERY PATCHY FOG TOWARD SUNRISE, IT LOOKS TOO PATCHY FOR TAF
INCLUSION ATTM. PERIODS OF CLOUDS AROUND 20,000 FEET WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AND
MAY BE COMPLEMENTED WITH SOME CUMULUS AROUND 5,000 FEET. WIND
GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 20 KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS AS
WELL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH THE GUSTS.


OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG/ST POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING, MAINLY NEAR KABE- KRDG. LIGHT WIND, TENDS BE NW EACH
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE.  IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE N OF I-80 LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. MVFR
OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN NELY FLOW NEAR AND N OF I-80 WITH
POSSIBLE IFR VSBY IN FOG AT NIGHT.

OVERALL LONG TERM AVIATION FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC WHICH WILL KEEP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.
AN INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING AND A SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION, AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SEAS
OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE ACROSS OUR
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...ATLC SEAS MAY INCREASE AS AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BUT
ATTM, BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL DECREASE TO 9-10
SECONDS ON MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15
MPH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF MODERATE RIP CURRENTS,
PARTICULARLY FOR NEW JERSEY.

IN THE MEANTIME, SWIM SAFELY WITHIN THE WATCHFUL SAFETY VIEW OF
OUR BEACH PATROLS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...GAINES/DRAG
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG/GAINES





000
FXUS61 KPHI 310126
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED MAINLY NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
PROBABLY PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND AS IT
DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS
TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE
OVERALL LIFT, SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
CONVECTIVE CORES FROM GETTING TO ROBUST. THE INITIATION EARLY ON
APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY TERRAIN IN NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE MAIN CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FLOW BELOW ABOUT
10000 FEET IS 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

WE THEREFORE KEPT LOW POPS POPS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, NORTH
AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA. CLOUDS WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN PARTLY AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE DEW POINTS
TEND TO HANG NEAR THE MUGGY LEVEL. A MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR THE
LOW TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURES WERE
SLOW TO FALL IN SPOTS AND LOWS HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD A FEW DEGREES
IN SPOTS WITH THE 9:30 PM UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOME ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE REACHES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS PROVIDES SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEARBY. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, AND
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL DOES NOT HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND SINCE THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW WE
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION ATTM. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS ARE AROUND TO START THE DAY AS SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AROUND DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE, A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE
AROUND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. A RATHER
WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ANY NOTABLE COOLING ALOFT IS MOSTLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT,
WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS MOS FOR MOST PLACES REGARDING
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: IN GENERAL, A FAIRLY STRONG SUMMER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH ONLY A
MINOR WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY, AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SEWD TOWARD THE MARITIMES
(55N/55W). THAT PERMITS A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALOFT
LATE THIS COMING WORKWEEK AND SO AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
SLIPS SOUTHWARD. ITS COOLING EFFECTIVENESS FELT PRIMARILY ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 29TH WAS AVERAGING NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL. KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES
BELOW NORMAL. KTTN KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING ~1 TO ~2F ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL WARM THESE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH.

CALENDAR DAY DEPARTURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES N AND NW
OF KPHL OVER E PA AND THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NJ. THEREAFTER, FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD STILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
NORMAL, POSSIBLY STILL 10 DEGREES ABOVE, ESPECIALLY NW OF I-95.
HOW MUCH COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY AND BEYOND IS DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST IMPACT OF
COOLING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE COASTS.
SST`S ARE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SO THE COOLING EFFECTIVENESS IS LESS.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 12Z/30 GFS MOS WAS THE
PRIMARY GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT, 12Z/30 MEX MOS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN THE 1521Z/30 WPC GRIDDED
ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE EXCEPTION HERE...WAS MEX AND WPC
MIN TEMPS WERE BLENDED 50 50 FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT.

HAZARDS...

A HEAT WAVE WILL BE IN PROGRESS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE I-95
CORRIDOR EASTWARD TO NEAR THE COASTS, ITS DURATION SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 4 DAYS WHETHER OR NOT IT BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON OR MONDAY.
THE QUESTION, DOES IT BREAK ANYTIME FRIDAY-SUNDAY OR JUST GO ON
AND ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE INTERIOR NEAR AND NW OF I-95.
IT IS POSSIBLE THE I-95 CORRIDOR COULD SEE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE
BEYOND 6 DAYS (TODAY-SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK SOLID FOR 90-95F
AND FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE OF 90 PLUS). MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THIS HEAT WAVE SO FAR ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE WE WILL NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR EITHER OF ANY THREE AFTERNOONS
BETWEEN THIS COMING WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM DRENCHING RAINS? NEAR THE COOL FRONT FRIDAY BUT OVERALL
AS PER WPC, THE DRY SPELL IS GOING TO LAST QUITE AWHILE, POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE START OF LABOR DAY WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...FAIR AND HOT AFTERNOONS WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE, MAINLY NW NJ AND E
PA. LIGHT WINDS TEND TO BE W-NW DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SMALL CHC
OF CONVECTION E PA AND NNJ WED AFTN AND THU AFTN PER INSTABILITY
INDICATORS INCLUDING KI.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN HEAVY SOUTHWARD
MOVING CONVECTION BUT ONLY IN A PWAT OF 1.6 INCHES. SLOW MOVERS-
GULLY WASHERS WHERE THEY OCCUR BUT LITTLE PREDICTABILITY ATTM EXCEPT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST INLAND.  POTENTIALLY STILL
90F VCNTY KPHL SWWD AND WESTWARD ON FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS HIGHER,
AROUND 70F AND 1400J ML CAPE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS POOR FOR ANY
SVR. STRATUS FOG POTENTIAL AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY I-80
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEKEND...FAIR AND VERY WARM. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING
CONVECTION POCONOS TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND KRDG PER ECMWF KI AND
A TENDENCY FOR UPSLOPE FLOW-LIFT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE THESE NEXT 6 DAYS: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO REMAIN AWAY
FROM THE TAF SITES ATTM. THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR
SOME VERY PATCHY FOG TOWARD SUNRISE, IT LOOKS TOO PATCHY FOR TAF
INCLUSION ATTM. PERIODS OF CLOUDS AROUND 20,000 FEET WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AND
MAY BE COMPLEMENTED WITH SOME CUMULUS AROUND 5,000 FEET. WIND
GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 20 KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS AS
WELL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH THE GUSTS.


OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG/ST POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING, MAINLY NEAR KABE- KRDG. LIGHT WIND, TENDS BE NW EACH
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE.  IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE N OF I-80 LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. MVFR
OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN NELY FLOW NEAR AND N OF I-80 WITH
POSSIBLE IFR VSBY IN FOG AT NIGHT.

OVERALL LONG TERM AVIATION FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC WHICH WILL KEEP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.
AN INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING AND A SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION, AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SEAS
OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE ACROSS OUR
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...ATLC SEAS MAY INCREASE AS AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BUT
ATTM, BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL DECREASE TO 9-10
SECONDS ON MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15
MPH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF MODERATE RIP CURRENTS,
PARTICULARLY FOR NEW JERSEY.

IN THE MEANTIME, SWIM SAFELY WITHIN THE WATCHFUL SAFETY VIEW OF
OUR BEACH PATROLS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...GAINES/DRAG
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG/GAINES




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310126
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED MAINLY NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
PROBABLY PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND AS IT
DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS
TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE
OVERALL LIFT, SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
CONVECTIVE CORES FROM GETTING TO ROBUST. THE INITIATION EARLY ON
APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY TERRAIN IN NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE MAIN CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FLOW BELOW ABOUT
10000 FEET IS 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

WE THEREFORE KEPT LOW POPS POPS GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, NORTH
AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA. CLOUDS WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN PARTLY AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

IT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE DEW POINTS
TEND TO HANG NEAR THE MUGGY LEVEL. A MOS BLEND WAS USED FOR THE
LOW TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER WITH CLOUD COVER THE TEMPERATURES WERE
SLOW TO FALL IN SPOTS AND LOWS HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD A FEW DEGREES
IN SPOTS WITH THE 9:30 PM UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOME ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE REACHES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS PROVIDES SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEARBY. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, AND
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL DOES NOT HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND SINCE THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW WE
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION ATTM. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS ARE AROUND TO START THE DAY AS SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AROUND DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE, A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE
AROUND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. A RATHER
WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ANY NOTABLE COOLING ALOFT IS MOSTLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT,
WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS MOS FOR MOST PLACES REGARDING
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: IN GENERAL, A FAIRLY STRONG SUMMER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH ONLY A
MINOR WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY, AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SEWD TOWARD THE MARITIMES
(55N/55W). THAT PERMITS A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALOFT
LATE THIS COMING WORKWEEK AND SO AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
SLIPS SOUTHWARD. ITS COOLING EFFECTIVENESS FELT PRIMARILY ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 29TH WAS AVERAGING NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL. KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES
BELOW NORMAL. KTTN KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING ~1 TO ~2F ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL WARM THESE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH.

CALENDAR DAY DEPARTURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES N AND NW
OF KPHL OVER E PA AND THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NJ. THEREAFTER, FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD STILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
NORMAL, POSSIBLY STILL 10 DEGREES ABOVE, ESPECIALLY NW OF I-95.
HOW MUCH COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY AND BEYOND IS DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST IMPACT OF
COOLING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE COASTS.
SST`S ARE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SO THE COOLING EFFECTIVENESS IS LESS.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 12Z/30 GFS MOS WAS THE
PRIMARY GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT, 12Z/30 MEX MOS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN THE 1521Z/30 WPC GRIDDED
ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE EXCEPTION HERE...WAS MEX AND WPC
MIN TEMPS WERE BLENDED 50 50 FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT.

HAZARDS...

A HEAT WAVE WILL BE IN PROGRESS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE I-95
CORRIDOR EASTWARD TO NEAR THE COASTS, ITS DURATION SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 4 DAYS WHETHER OR NOT IT BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON OR MONDAY.
THE QUESTION, DOES IT BREAK ANYTIME FRIDAY-SUNDAY OR JUST GO ON
AND ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE INTERIOR NEAR AND NW OF I-95.
IT IS POSSIBLE THE I-95 CORRIDOR COULD SEE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE
BEYOND 6 DAYS (TODAY-SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK SOLID FOR 90-95F
AND FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE OF 90 PLUS). MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THIS HEAT WAVE SO FAR ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE WE WILL NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR EITHER OF ANY THREE AFTERNOONS
BETWEEN THIS COMING WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM DRENCHING RAINS? NEAR THE COOL FRONT FRIDAY BUT OVERALL
AS PER WPC, THE DRY SPELL IS GOING TO LAST QUITE AWHILE, POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE START OF LABOR DAY WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...FAIR AND HOT AFTERNOONS WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE, MAINLY NW NJ AND E
PA. LIGHT WINDS TEND TO BE W-NW DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SMALL CHC
OF CONVECTION E PA AND NNJ WED AFTN AND THU AFTN PER INSTABILITY
INDICATORS INCLUDING KI.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN HEAVY SOUTHWARD
MOVING CONVECTION BUT ONLY IN A PWAT OF 1.6 INCHES. SLOW MOVERS-
GULLY WASHERS WHERE THEY OCCUR BUT LITTLE PREDICTABILITY ATTM EXCEPT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST INLAND.  POTENTIALLY STILL
90F VCNTY KPHL SWWD AND WESTWARD ON FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS HIGHER,
AROUND 70F AND 1400J ML CAPE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS POOR FOR ANY
SVR. STRATUS FOG POTENTIAL AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY I-80
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEKEND...FAIR AND VERY WARM. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING
CONVECTION POCONOS TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND KRDG PER ECMWF KI AND
A TENDENCY FOR UPSLOPE FLOW-LIFT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE THESE NEXT 6 DAYS: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN AROUND 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO REMAIN AWAY
FROM THE TAF SITES ATTM. THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOR
SOME VERY PATCHY FOG TOWARD SUNRISE, IT LOOKS TOO PATCHY FOR TAF
INCLUSION ATTM. PERIODS OF CLOUDS AROUND 20,000 FEET WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AND
MAY BE COMPLEMENTED WITH SOME CUMULUS AROUND 5,000 FEET. WIND
GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY APPROACH 20 KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS AS
WELL, MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH THE GUSTS.


OUTLOOK... MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG/ST POSSIBLE
EACH MORNING, MAINLY NEAR KABE- KRDG. LIGHT WIND, TENDS BE NW EACH
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE.  IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE N OF I-80 LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. MVFR
OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN NELY FLOW NEAR AND N OF I-80 WITH
POSSIBLE IFR VSBY IN FOG AT NIGHT.

OVERALL LONG TERM AVIATION FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC WHICH WILL KEEP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.
AN INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING AND A SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION, AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SEAS
OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE ACROSS OUR
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...ATLC SEAS MAY INCREASE AS AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BUT
ATTM, BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL DECREASE TO 9-10
SECONDS ON MONDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15
MPH MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF MODERATE RIP CURRENTS,
PARTICULARLY FOR NEW JERSEY.

IN THE MEANTIME, SWIM SAFELY WITHIN THE WATCHFUL SAFETY VIEW OF
OUR BEACH PATROLS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...GAINES/DRAG
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG/GAINES





000
FXUS61 KPHI 302214
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
614 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED MAINLY NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
PROBABLY PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND AS IT
DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS
TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SOME
SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ARE ONGOING NEAR OR IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THE OVERALL LIFT, SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE CORES FROM GETTING TO ROBUST. THE INITIATION
EARLY ON APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY TERRAIN IN NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE
MAIN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FLOW
BELOW ABOUT 10000 FEET IS 15 KNOTS OR LESS, THEREFORE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND DECAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WE THEREFORE KEPT LOW POPS POPS GOING FOR A TIME THROUGH EARLY TO
MID EVENING. SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO HANG ONTO SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER THAT MAY BE OVERDONE. CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE FROM TIME TO TIME BUT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS
EXPECTED AND THE SKY GRIDS WERE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE
POCONOS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LED TO A LOCAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

IT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE DEW POINTS
TEND TO HANG NEAR THE MUGGY LEVEL. SOME FASTER COOLING THIS EVENING
THOUGH SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH A SEA BREEZE, WHICH
WILL WEAKEN. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND THEN
MADE SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOME ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE REACHES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS PROVIDES SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEARBY. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, AND
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL DOES NOT HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND SINCE THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW WE
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION ATTM. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS ARE AROUND TO START THE DAY AS SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AROUND DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE, A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE
AROUND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. A RATHER
WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ANY NOTABLE COOLING ALOFT IS MOSTLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT,
WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS MOS FOR MOST PLACES REGARDING
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: IN GENERAL, A FAIRLY STRONG SUMMER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH ONLY A
MINOR WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY, AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SEWD TOWARD THE MARITIMES
(55N/55W). THAT PERMITS A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALOFT
LATE THIS COMING WORKWEEK AND SO AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
SLIPS SOUTHWARD. ITS COOLING EFFECTIVENESS FELT PRIMARILY ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 29TH WAS AVERAGING NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL. KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES
BELOW NORMAL. KTTN KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING ~1 TO ~2F ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL WARM THESE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH.

CALENDAR DAY DEPARTURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES N AND NW
OF KPHL OVER E PA AND THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NJ. THEREAFTER, FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD STILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
NORMAL, POSSIBLY STILL 10 DEGREES ABOVE, ESPECIALLY NW OF I-95.
HOW MUCH COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY AND BEYOND IS DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST IMPACT OF
COOLING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE COASTS.
SST`S ARE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SO THE COOLING EFFECTIVENESS IS LESS.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 12Z/30 GFS MOS WAS THE
PRIMARY GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT, 12Z/30 MEX MOS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN THE 1521Z/30 WPC GRIDDED
ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE EXCEPTION HERE...WAS MEX AND WPC
MIN TEMPS WERE BLENDED 50 50 FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT.

HAZARDS...

A HEAT WAVE WILL BE IN PROGRESS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE I-95
CORRIDOR EASTWARD TO NEAR THE COASTS, ITS DURATION SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 4 DAYS WHETHER OR NOT IT BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON OR MONDAY.
THE QUESTION, DOES IT BREAK ANYTIME FRIDAY-SUNDAY OR JUST GO ON
AND ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE INTERIOR NEAR AND NW OF I-95.
IT IS POSSIBLE THE I-95 CORRIDOR COULD SEE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE
BEYOND 6 DAYS (TODAY-SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK SOLID FOR 90-95F
AND FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE OF 90 PLUS). MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THIS HEAT WAVE SO FAR ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE WE WILL NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR EITHER OF ANY THREE AFTERNOONS
BETWEEN THIS COMING WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM DRENCHING RAINS? NEAR THE COOL FRONT FRIDAY BUT OVERALL
AS PER WPC, THE DRY SPELL IS GOING TO LAST QUITE AWHILE, POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE START OF LABOR DAY WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...FAIR AND HOT AFTERNOONS WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE, MAINLY NW NJ AND E
PA. LIGHT WINDS TEND TO BE W-NW DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SMALL CHC
OF CONVECTION E PA AND NNJ WED AFTN AND THU AFTN PER INSTABILITY
INDICATORS INCLUDING KI.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN HEAVY SOUTHWARD
MOVING CONVECTION BUT ONLY IN A PWAT OF 1.6 INCHES. SLOW MOVERS-
GULLY WASHERS WHERE THEY OCCUR BUT LITTLE PREDICTABILITY ATTM EXCEPT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST INLAND.  POTENTIALLY STILL
90F VCNTY KPHL SWWD AND WESTWARD ON FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS HIGHER,
AROUND 70F AND 1400J ML CAPE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS POOR FOR ANY
SVR. STRATUS FOG POTENTIAL AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY I-80
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEKEND...FAIR AND VERY WARM. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING
CONVECTION POCONOS TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND KRDG PER ECMWF KI AND
A TENDENCY FOR UPSLOPE FLOW-LIFT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE THESE NEXT 6 DAYS: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET,
ALONG WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND
KILG DUE TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE. A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE NEAR THE KABE TO KRDG AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM TO ARRIVE MAINLY NEAR THE KABE AND KRDG AREAS THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS.

MONDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR DUE TO FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR.
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE, THE CHANCE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG/ST POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,
MAINLY NEAR KABE-KRDG. LIGHT WIND, TENDS BE NW EACH AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE.  IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE N OF I-80 LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. MVFR
OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN NELY FLOW NEAR AND N OF I-80 WITH
POSSIBLE IFR VSBY IN FOG AT NIGHT.

OVERALL LONG TERM AVIATION FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC WHICH WILL KEEP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.
AN INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING AND A SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION, AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SEAS
OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE ACROSS OUR
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...ATLC SEAS MAY INCREASE AS AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BUT
ATTM, BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL, 10-11 SECONDS, CONTINUES TO
ROLL IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN TRICKY CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITHIN THE SURF ZONE
ESPECIALLY DURING TIDE CHANGES. AS A RESULT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

THE OUTLOOK IS FOR GENERALLY LOW ENHANCED CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH
A SLIGHTLY SUBSIDING 1-2 FOOT 10 SECOND SE SWELL. ITS POSSIBLE WE
WILL STILL NEED TO CARRY A MDT RISK ON MONDAY BASED ON THE VERY SLOW
TO SUBSIDE SWELL OF TODAY-SUNDAY.

NEXT FRIDAY ONWARD MAY SEE THE RISK INCREASE, WITH A CHANCE OF MODERATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR LABOR DAY DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS WESTWARD SWEEPING SWELLS. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY NEXT WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME, SWIM SAFELY WITHIN THE WATCHFUL SAFETY VIEW OF
OUR BEACH PATROLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...


AUGUST: KPHL (POR 1872) AND KACY (POR 1874), BARRING ANY MORE RAIN
THIS MONTH, WILL BE 10TH DRIEST ON RECORD WITH 0.98 AND 1.25"
RESPECTIVELY. THE KILG 1.54 INCHES IS 13TH DRIEST ON RECORD
PROVIDED NO MORE RAIN FALLS BEFORE 1 AM TUESDAY.

LISTING THE SEASONS 90F OR WARMER DAYS AS INFO FOR YOU TO ADD ONTO
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THESE TOTALS AS OF THE 29TH AND DO NOT INCLUDE TODAYS 90 PLUS.


KPHL 28, MEAN 21. IF WE ADD 5 MORE DAYS 90F BETWEEN NOW AND SEPT
9 (TOTAL PROJECTED AT LEAST 33) AND KPHL WILL HAVE THE 18TH
HIGHEST SEASONAL TOTAL OF 90 OR HIGHER. POR TO 1872

KABE 12  POR MEAN 17
KACY 16  POR MEAN 10
KILG 11  POR MEAN 20

SAMPLING OF OTHER LOCATION TOTALS FOR 2015 ARE BELOW.
KPNE 30
KVAY 15
KRDG 17
KTTN 20
KGED 18
KFWN 6

RECORDS: NONE POSTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RECORDS ARE MORE
VULNERABLE FRIDAY-SUNDAY BUT AT THIS TIME NOT WORTH POSTING.

THE CLOSEST POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD POTENTIAL APPEARS AT KACY ON
WED/THU OF THIS WEEK WITH A 94 IN 1980 ON THE 2ND AND 95 IN 1994
ON THE 3RD. AGAIN, COASTAL SEA BREEZES WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE.

OTHERWISE MANY RECORDS NEAR 100F WERE ESTABLISHED IN 1953 BETWEEN
AUGUST 31 AND SEPTEMBER 3RD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 302214
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
614 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED MAINLY NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
PROBABLY PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND AS IT
DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS
TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SOME
SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ARE ONGOING NEAR OR IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THE OVERALL LIFT, SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE CORES FROM GETTING TO ROBUST. THE INITIATION
EARLY ON APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY TERRAIN IN NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE
MAIN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FLOW
BELOW ABOUT 10000 FEET IS 15 KNOTS OR LESS, THEREFORE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND DECAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WE THEREFORE KEPT LOW POPS POPS GOING FOR A TIME THROUGH EARLY TO
MID EVENING. SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO HANG ONTO SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER THAT MAY BE OVERDONE. CLOUDS MAY
INCREASE FROM TIME TO TIME BUT A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS
EXPECTED AND THE SKY GRIDS WERE DECREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE
POCONOS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LED TO A LOCAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

IT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE DEW POINTS
TEND TO HANG NEAR THE MUGGY LEVEL. SOME FASTER COOLING THIS EVENING
THOUGH SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH A SEA BREEZE, WHICH
WILL WEAKEN. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND THEN
MADE SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOME ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE REACHES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS PROVIDES SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEARBY. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, AND
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL DOES NOT HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND SINCE THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW WE
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION ATTM. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS ARE AROUND TO START THE DAY AS SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AROUND DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE, A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE
AROUND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. A RATHER
WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ANY NOTABLE COOLING ALOFT IS MOSTLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT,
WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS MOS FOR MOST PLACES REGARDING
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: IN GENERAL, A FAIRLY STRONG SUMMER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH ONLY A
MINOR WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY, AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SEWD TOWARD THE MARITIMES
(55N/55W). THAT PERMITS A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALOFT
LATE THIS COMING WORKWEEK AND SO AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
SLIPS SOUTHWARD. ITS COOLING EFFECTIVENESS FELT PRIMARILY ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 29TH WAS AVERAGING NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL. KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES
BELOW NORMAL. KTTN KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING ~1 TO ~2F ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL WARM THESE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH.

CALENDAR DAY DEPARTURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES N AND NW
OF KPHL OVER E PA AND THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NJ. THEREAFTER, FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD STILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
NORMAL, POSSIBLY STILL 10 DEGREES ABOVE, ESPECIALLY NW OF I-95.
HOW MUCH COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY AND BEYOND IS DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST IMPACT OF
COOLING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE COASTS.
SST`S ARE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SO THE COOLING EFFECTIVENESS IS LESS.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 12Z/30 GFS MOS WAS THE
PRIMARY GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT, 12Z/30 MEX MOS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN THE 1521Z/30 WPC GRIDDED
ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE EXCEPTION HERE...WAS MEX AND WPC
MIN TEMPS WERE BLENDED 50 50 FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT.

HAZARDS...

A HEAT WAVE WILL BE IN PROGRESS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE I-95
CORRIDOR EASTWARD TO NEAR THE COASTS, ITS DURATION SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 4 DAYS WHETHER OR NOT IT BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON OR MONDAY.
THE QUESTION, DOES IT BREAK ANYTIME FRIDAY-SUNDAY OR JUST GO ON
AND ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE INTERIOR NEAR AND NW OF I-95.
IT IS POSSIBLE THE I-95 CORRIDOR COULD SEE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE
BEYOND 6 DAYS (TODAY-SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK SOLID FOR 90-95F
AND FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE OF 90 PLUS). MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THIS HEAT WAVE SO FAR ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE WE WILL NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR EITHER OF ANY THREE AFTERNOONS
BETWEEN THIS COMING WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM DRENCHING RAINS? NEAR THE COOL FRONT FRIDAY BUT OVERALL
AS PER WPC, THE DRY SPELL IS GOING TO LAST QUITE AWHILE, POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE START OF LABOR DAY WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...FAIR AND HOT AFTERNOONS WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE, MAINLY NW NJ AND E
PA. LIGHT WINDS TEND TO BE W-NW DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SMALL CHC
OF CONVECTION E PA AND NNJ WED AFTN AND THU AFTN PER INSTABILITY
INDICATORS INCLUDING KI.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN HEAVY SOUTHWARD
MOVING CONVECTION BUT ONLY IN A PWAT OF 1.6 INCHES. SLOW MOVERS-
GULLY WASHERS WHERE THEY OCCUR BUT LITTLE PREDICTABILITY ATTM EXCEPT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST INLAND.  POTENTIALLY STILL
90F VCNTY KPHL SWWD AND WESTWARD ON FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS HIGHER,
AROUND 70F AND 1400J ML CAPE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS POOR FOR ANY
SVR. STRATUS FOG POTENTIAL AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY I-80
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEKEND...FAIR AND VERY WARM. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING
CONVECTION POCONOS TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND KRDG PER ECMWF KI AND
A TENDENCY FOR UPSLOPE FLOW-LIFT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE THESE NEXT 6 DAYS: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET,
ALONG WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND
KILG DUE TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE. A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE NEAR THE KABE TO KRDG AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM TO ARRIVE MAINLY NEAR THE KABE AND KRDG AREAS THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS.

MONDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR DUE TO FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR.
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE, THE CHANCE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG/ST POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,
MAINLY NEAR KABE-KRDG. LIGHT WIND, TENDS BE NW EACH AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE.  IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE N OF I-80 LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. MVFR
OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN NELY FLOW NEAR AND N OF I-80 WITH
POSSIBLE IFR VSBY IN FOG AT NIGHT.

OVERALL LONG TERM AVIATION FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC WHICH WILL KEEP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.
AN INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING AND A SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION, AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SEAS
OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE ACROSS OUR
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...ATLC SEAS MAY INCREASE AS AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BUT
ATTM, BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL, 10-11 SECONDS, CONTINUES TO
ROLL IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN TRICKY CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITHIN THE SURF ZONE
ESPECIALLY DURING TIDE CHANGES. AS A RESULT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

THE OUTLOOK IS FOR GENERALLY LOW ENHANCED CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH
A SLIGHTLY SUBSIDING 1-2 FOOT 10 SECOND SE SWELL. ITS POSSIBLE WE
WILL STILL NEED TO CARRY A MDT RISK ON MONDAY BASED ON THE VERY SLOW
TO SUBSIDE SWELL OF TODAY-SUNDAY.

NEXT FRIDAY ONWARD MAY SEE THE RISK INCREASE, WITH A CHANCE OF MODERATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR LABOR DAY DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS WESTWARD SWEEPING SWELLS. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY NEXT WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME, SWIM SAFELY WITHIN THE WATCHFUL SAFETY VIEW OF
OUR BEACH PATROLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...


AUGUST: KPHL (POR 1872) AND KACY (POR 1874), BARRING ANY MORE RAIN
THIS MONTH, WILL BE 10TH DRIEST ON RECORD WITH 0.98 AND 1.25"
RESPECTIVELY. THE KILG 1.54 INCHES IS 13TH DRIEST ON RECORD
PROVIDED NO MORE RAIN FALLS BEFORE 1 AM TUESDAY.

LISTING THE SEASONS 90F OR WARMER DAYS AS INFO FOR YOU TO ADD ONTO
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THESE TOTALS AS OF THE 29TH AND DO NOT INCLUDE TODAYS 90 PLUS.


KPHL 28, MEAN 21. IF WE ADD 5 MORE DAYS 90F BETWEEN NOW AND SEPT
9 (TOTAL PROJECTED AT LEAST 33) AND KPHL WILL HAVE THE 18TH
HIGHEST SEASONAL TOTAL OF 90 OR HIGHER. POR TO 1872

KABE 12  POR MEAN 17
KACY 16  POR MEAN 10
KILG 11  POR MEAN 20

SAMPLING OF OTHER LOCATION TOTALS FOR 2015 ARE BELOW.
KPNE 30
KVAY 15
KRDG 17
KTTN 20
KGED 18
KFWN 6

RECORDS: NONE POSTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RECORDS ARE MORE
VULNERABLE FRIDAY-SUNDAY BUT AT THIS TIME NOT WORTH POSTING.

THE CLOSEST POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD POTENTIAL APPEARS AT KACY ON
WED/THU OF THIS WEEK WITH A 94 IN 1980 ON THE 2ND AND 95 IN 1994
ON THE 3RD. AGAIN, COASTAL SEA BREEZES WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE.

OTHERWISE MANY RECORDS NEAR 100F WERE ESTABLISHED IN 1953 BETWEEN
AUGUST 31 AND SEPTEMBER 3RD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 302025
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
425 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED MAINLY NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
PROBABLY PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND AS IT
DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS
TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SOME
SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ARE ONGOING NEAR OR IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THE OVERALL LIFT, SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE CORES FROM GETTING TO ROBUST. THE INITIATION
EARLY ON APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY TERRAIN IN NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE
MAIN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FLOW
BELOW ABOUT 10000 FEET IS 15 KNOTS OR LESS, THEREFORE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
TEND TO WEAKEN WITH AN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN EXTENT. A FEW LOCALES
WILL GET SOME NEEDED RAIN IN THE FORM OF DOWNPOURS.

WE THEREFORE KEPT LOW POPS POPS GOING FOR A TIME THROUGH EARLY TO
MID EVENING, ALTHOUGH INCREASED THEM A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST.
SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO HANG ONTO SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT,
HOWEVER THAT MAY BE OVERDONE. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO A NORTHERN JET STREAK PULLING NORTHWARD MOISTURE
FROM AN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST.

IT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE DEW POINTS
TEND TO HANG NEAR THE MUGGY LEVEL. SOME FASTER COOLING THIS EVENING
THOUGH SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH A SEA BREEZE, WHICH
WILL WEAKEN. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND THEN
MADE SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOME ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE REACHES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS PROVIDES SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEARBY. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, AND
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL DOES NOT HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND SINCE THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW WE
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION ATTM. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS ARE AROUND TO START THE DAY AS SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AROUND DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE, A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE
AROUND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. A RATHER
WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ANY NOTABLE COOLING ALOFT IS MOSTLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT,
WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS MOS FOR MOST PLACES REGARDING
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: IN GENERAL, A FAIRLY STRONG SUMMER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH ONLY A
MINOR WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY, AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SEWD TOWARD THE MARITIMES
(55N/55W). THAT PERMITS A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALOFT
LATE THIS COMING WORKWEEK AND SO AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
SLIPS SOUTHWARD. ITS COOLING EFFECTIVENESS FELT PRIMARILY ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 29TH WAS AVERAGING NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL. KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES
BELOW NORMAL. KTTN KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING ~1 TO ~2F ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL WARM THESE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH.

CALENDAR DAY DEPARTURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES N AND NW
OF KPHL OVER E PA AND THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NJ. THEREAFTER, FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD STILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
NORMAL, POSSIBLY STILL 10 DEGREES ABOVE, ESPECIALLY NW OF I-95.
HOW MUCH COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY AND BEYOND IS DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST IMPACT OF
COOLING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE COASTS.
SST`S ARE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SO THE COOLING EFFECTIVENESS IS LESS.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 12Z/30 GFS MOS WAS THE
PRIMARY GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT, 12Z/30 MEX MOS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN THE 1521Z/30 WPC GRIDDED
ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE EXCEPTION HERE...WAS MEX AND WPC
MIN TEMPS WERE BLENDED 50 50 FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT.

HAZARDS...

A HEAT WAVE WILL BE IN PROGRESS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE I-95
CORRIDOR EASTWARD TO NEAR THE COASTS, ITS DURATION SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 4 DAYS WHETHER OR NOT IT BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON OR MONDAY.
THE QUESTION, DOES IT BREAK ANYTIME FRIDAY-SUNDAY OR JUST GO ON
AND ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE INTERIOR NEAR AND NW OF I-95.
IT IS POSSIBLE THE I-95 CORRIDOR COULD SEE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE
BEYOND 6 DAYS (TODAY-SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK SOLID FOR 90-95F
AND FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE OF 90 PLUS). MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THIS HEAT WAVE SO FAR ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE WE WILL NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR EITHER OF ANY THREE AFTERNOONS
BETWEEN THIS COMING WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM DRENCHING RAINS? NEAR THE COOL FRONT FRIDAY BUT OVERALL
AS PER WPC, THE DRY SPELL IS GOING TO LAST QUITE AWHILE, POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE START OF LABOR DAY WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...FAIR AND HOT AFTERNOONS WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE, MAINLY NW NJ AND E
PA. LIGHT WINDS TEND TO BE W-NW DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SMALL CHC
OF CONVECTION E PA AND NNJ WED AFTN AND THU AFTN PER INSTABILITY
INDICATORS INCLUDING KI.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN HEAVY SOUTHWARD
MOVING CONVECTION BUT ONLY IN A PWAT OF 1.6 INCHES. SLOW MOVERS-
GULLY WASHERS WHERE THEY OCCUR BUT LITTLE PREDICTABILITY ATTM EXCEPT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST INLAND.  POTENTIALLY STILL
90F VCNTY KPHL SWWD AND WESTWARD ON FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS HIGHER,
AROUND 70F AND 1400J ML CAPE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS POOR FOR ANY
SVR. STRATUS FOG POTENTIAL AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY I-80
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEKEND...FAIR AND VERY WARM. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING
CONVECTION POCONOS TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND KRDG PER ECMWF KI AND
A TENDENCY FOR UPSLOPE FLOW-LIFT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE THESE NEXT 6 DAYS: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET,
ALONG WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND
KILG DUE TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE. A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE NEAR THE KABE TO KRDG AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM TO ARRIVE MAINLY NEAR THE KABE AND KRDG AREAS THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS.

MONDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR DUE TO FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR.
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE, THE CHANCE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG/ST POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,
MAINLY NEAR KABE-KRDG. LIGHT WIND, TENDS BE NW EACH AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE.  IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE N OF I-80 LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. MVFR
OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN NELY FLOW NEAR AND N OF I-80 WITH
POSSIBLE IFR VSBY IN FOG AT NIGHT.

OVERALL LONG TERM AVIATION FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC WHICH WILL KEEP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.
AN INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING AND A SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION, AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SEAS
OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE ACROSS OUR
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...ATLC SEAS MAY INCREASE AS AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BUT
ATTM, BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL, 10-11 SECONDS, CONTINUES TO
ROLL IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN TRICKY CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITHIN THE SURF ZONE
ESPECIALLY DURING TIDE CHANGES. AS A RESULT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

THE OUTLOOK IS FOR GENERALLY LOW ENHANCED CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH
A SLIGHTLY SUBSIDING 1-2 FOOT 10 SECOND SE SWELL. ITS POSSIBLE WE
WILL STILL NEED TO CARRY A MDT RISK ON MONDAY BASED ON THE VERY SLOW
TO SUBSIDE SWELL OF TODAY-SUNDAY.

NEXT FRIDAY ONWARD MAY SEE THE RISK INCREASE, WITH A CHANCE OF MODERATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR LABOR DAY DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS WESTWARD SWEEPING SWELLS. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY NEXT WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME, SWIM SAFELY WITHIN THE WATCHFUL SAFETY VIEW OF
OUR BEACH PATROLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS SECTION MAY BE DISCARDED TONIGHT.

AUGUST: KPHL (POR 1872) AND KACY (POR 1874), BARRING ANY MORE RAIN
THIS MONTH, WILL BE 10TH DRIEST ON RECORD WITH 0.98 AND 1.25"
RESPECTIVELY. THE KILG 1.54 INCHES IS 13TH DRIEST ON RECORD
PROVIDED NO MORE RAIN FALLS BEFORE 1 AM TUESDAY.

LISTING THE SEASONS 90F OR WARMER DAYS AS INFO FOR YOU TO ADD ONTO
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THESE TOTALS AS OF THE 29TH AND DO NOT INCLUDE TODAYS 90 PLUS.


KPHL 28, MEAN 21. IF WE ADD 5 MORE DAYS 90F BETWEEN NOW AND SEPT
9 (TOTAL PROJECTED AT LEAST 33) AND KPHL WILL HAVE THE 18TH
HIGHEST SEASONAL TOTAL OF 90 OR HIGHER. POR TO 1872

KABE 12  POR MEAN 17
KACY 16  POR MEAN 10
KILG 11  POR MEAN 20

SAMPLING OF OTHER LOCATION TOTALS FOR 2015 ARE BELOW.
KPNE 30
KVAY 15
KRDG 17
KTTN 20
KGED 18
KFWN 6

RECORDS: NONE POSTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RECORDS ARE MORE
VULNERABLE FRIDAY-SUNDAY BUT AT THIS TIME NOT WORTH POSTING.

THE CLOSEST POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD POTENTIAL APPEARS AT KACY ON
WED/THU OF THIS WEEK WITH A 94 IN 1980 ON THE 2ND AND 95 IN 1994
ON THE 3RD. AGAIN, COASTAL SEA BREEZES WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE.

OTHERWISE MANY RECORDS NEAR 100F WERE ESTABLISHED IN 1953 BETWEEN
AUGUST 31 AND SEPTEMBER 3RD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...COR NEXT TO LAST PGH OF CLIMATE IN RECORDS SECTION





000
FXUS61 KPHI 302025
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
425 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED MAINLY NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
PROBABLY PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND AS IT
DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS
TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SOME
SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ARE ONGOING NEAR OR IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THE OVERALL LIFT, SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE CORES FROM GETTING TO ROBUST. THE INITIATION
EARLY ON APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY TERRAIN IN NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE
MAIN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FLOW
BELOW ABOUT 10000 FEET IS 15 KNOTS OR LESS, THEREFORE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
TEND TO WEAKEN WITH AN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN EXTENT. A FEW LOCALES
WILL GET SOME NEEDED RAIN IN THE FORM OF DOWNPOURS.

WE THEREFORE KEPT LOW POPS POPS GOING FOR A TIME THROUGH EARLY TO
MID EVENING, ALTHOUGH INCREASED THEM A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST.
SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO HANG ONTO SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT,
HOWEVER THAT MAY BE OVERDONE. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO A NORTHERN JET STREAK PULLING NORTHWARD MOISTURE
FROM AN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST.

IT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE DEW POINTS
TEND TO HANG NEAR THE MUGGY LEVEL. SOME FASTER COOLING THIS EVENING
THOUGH SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH A SEA BREEZE, WHICH
WILL WEAKEN. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND THEN
MADE SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOME ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE REACHES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS PROVIDES SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEARBY. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, AND
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL DOES NOT HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND SINCE THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW WE
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION ATTM. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS ARE AROUND TO START THE DAY AS SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AROUND DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE, A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE
AROUND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. A RATHER
WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ANY NOTABLE COOLING ALOFT IS MOSTLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT,
WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS MOS FOR MOST PLACES REGARDING
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: IN GENERAL, A FAIRLY STRONG SUMMER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH ONLY A
MINOR WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY, AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SEWD TOWARD THE MARITIMES
(55N/55W). THAT PERMITS A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALOFT
LATE THIS COMING WORKWEEK AND SO AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
SLIPS SOUTHWARD. ITS COOLING EFFECTIVENESS FELT PRIMARILY ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 29TH WAS AVERAGING NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL. KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES
BELOW NORMAL. KTTN KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING ~1 TO ~2F ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL WARM THESE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH.

CALENDAR DAY DEPARTURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES N AND NW
OF KPHL OVER E PA AND THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NJ. THEREAFTER, FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD STILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
NORMAL, POSSIBLY STILL 10 DEGREES ABOVE, ESPECIALLY NW OF I-95.
HOW MUCH COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY AND BEYOND IS DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST IMPACT OF
COOLING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE COASTS.
SST`S ARE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SO THE COOLING EFFECTIVENESS IS LESS.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 12Z/30 GFS MOS WAS THE
PRIMARY GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT, 12Z/30 MEX MOS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN THE 1521Z/30 WPC GRIDDED
ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE EXCEPTION HERE...WAS MEX AND WPC
MIN TEMPS WERE BLENDED 50 50 FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT.

HAZARDS...

A HEAT WAVE WILL BE IN PROGRESS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE I-95
CORRIDOR EASTWARD TO NEAR THE COASTS, ITS DURATION SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 4 DAYS WHETHER OR NOT IT BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON OR MONDAY.
THE QUESTION, DOES IT BREAK ANYTIME FRIDAY-SUNDAY OR JUST GO ON
AND ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE INTERIOR NEAR AND NW OF I-95.
IT IS POSSIBLE THE I-95 CORRIDOR COULD SEE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE
BEYOND 6 DAYS (TODAY-SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK SOLID FOR 90-95F
AND FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE OF 90 PLUS). MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THIS HEAT WAVE SO FAR ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE WE WILL NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR EITHER OF ANY THREE AFTERNOONS
BETWEEN THIS COMING WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM DRENCHING RAINS? NEAR THE COOL FRONT FRIDAY BUT OVERALL
AS PER WPC, THE DRY SPELL IS GOING TO LAST QUITE AWHILE, POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE START OF LABOR DAY WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...FAIR AND HOT AFTERNOONS WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE, MAINLY NW NJ AND E
PA. LIGHT WINDS TEND TO BE W-NW DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SMALL CHC
OF CONVECTION E PA AND NNJ WED AFTN AND THU AFTN PER INSTABILITY
INDICATORS INCLUDING KI.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN HEAVY SOUTHWARD
MOVING CONVECTION BUT ONLY IN A PWAT OF 1.6 INCHES. SLOW MOVERS-
GULLY WASHERS WHERE THEY OCCUR BUT LITTLE PREDICTABILITY ATTM EXCEPT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST INLAND.  POTENTIALLY STILL
90F VCNTY KPHL SWWD AND WESTWARD ON FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS HIGHER,
AROUND 70F AND 1400J ML CAPE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS POOR FOR ANY
SVR. STRATUS FOG POTENTIAL AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY I-80
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEKEND...FAIR AND VERY WARM. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING
CONVECTION POCONOS TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND KRDG PER ECMWF KI AND
A TENDENCY FOR UPSLOPE FLOW-LIFT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE THESE NEXT 6 DAYS: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET,
ALONG WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND
KILG DUE TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE. A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE NEAR THE KABE TO KRDG AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM TO ARRIVE MAINLY NEAR THE KABE AND KRDG AREAS THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS.

MONDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR DUE TO FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR.
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE, THE CHANCE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG/ST POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,
MAINLY NEAR KABE-KRDG. LIGHT WIND, TENDS BE NW EACH AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE.  IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE N OF I-80 LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. MVFR
OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN NELY FLOW NEAR AND N OF I-80 WITH
POSSIBLE IFR VSBY IN FOG AT NIGHT.

OVERALL LONG TERM AVIATION FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC WHICH WILL KEEP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.
AN INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING AND A SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION, AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SEAS
OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE ACROSS OUR
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...ATLC SEAS MAY INCREASE AS AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BUT
ATTM, BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL, 10-11 SECONDS, CONTINUES TO
ROLL IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN TRICKY CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITHIN THE SURF ZONE
ESPECIALLY DURING TIDE CHANGES. AS A RESULT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

THE OUTLOOK IS FOR GENERALLY LOW ENHANCED CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH
A SLIGHTLY SUBSIDING 1-2 FOOT 10 SECOND SE SWELL. ITS POSSIBLE WE
WILL STILL NEED TO CARRY A MDT RISK ON MONDAY BASED ON THE VERY SLOW
TO SUBSIDE SWELL OF TODAY-SUNDAY.

NEXT FRIDAY ONWARD MAY SEE THE RISK INCREASE, WITH A CHANCE OF MODERATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR LABOR DAY DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS WESTWARD SWEEPING SWELLS. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY NEXT WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME, SWIM SAFELY WITHIN THE WATCHFUL SAFETY VIEW OF
OUR BEACH PATROLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS SECTION MAY BE DISCARDED TONIGHT.

AUGUST: KPHL (POR 1872) AND KACY (POR 1874), BARRING ANY MORE RAIN
THIS MONTH, WILL BE 10TH DRIEST ON RECORD WITH 0.98 AND 1.25"
RESPECTIVELY. THE KILG 1.54 INCHES IS 13TH DRIEST ON RECORD
PROVIDED NO MORE RAIN FALLS BEFORE 1 AM TUESDAY.

LISTING THE SEASONS 90F OR WARMER DAYS AS INFO FOR YOU TO ADD ONTO
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THESE TOTALS AS OF THE 29TH AND DO NOT INCLUDE TODAYS 90 PLUS.


KPHL 28, MEAN 21. IF WE ADD 5 MORE DAYS 90F BETWEEN NOW AND SEPT
9 (TOTAL PROJECTED AT LEAST 33) AND KPHL WILL HAVE THE 18TH
HIGHEST SEASONAL TOTAL OF 90 OR HIGHER. POR TO 1872

KABE 12  POR MEAN 17
KACY 16  POR MEAN 10
KILG 11  POR MEAN 20

SAMPLING OF OTHER LOCATION TOTALS FOR 2015 ARE BELOW.
KPNE 30
KVAY 15
KRDG 17
KTTN 20
KGED 18
KFWN 6

RECORDS: NONE POSTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RECORDS ARE MORE
VULNERABLE FRIDAY-SUNDAY BUT AT THIS TIME NOT WORTH POSTING.

THE CLOSEST POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD POTENTIAL APPEARS AT KACY ON
WED/THU OF THIS WEEK WITH A 94 IN 1980 ON THE 2ND AND 95 IN 1994
ON THE 3RD. AGAIN, COASTAL SEA BREEZES WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE.

OTHERWISE MANY RECORDS NEAR 100F WERE ESTABLISHED IN 1953 BETWEEN
AUGUST 31 AND SEPTEMBER 3RD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...COR NEXT TO LAST PGH OF CLIMATE IN RECORDS SECTION




000
FXUS61 KPHI 302023
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
423 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED MAINLY NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
PROBABLY PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND AS IT
DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS
TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SOME
SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ARE ONGOING NEAR OR IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THE OVERALL LIFT, SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE CORES FROM GETTING TO ROBUST. THE INITIATION
EARLY ON APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY TERRAIN IN NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE
MAIN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FLOW
BELOW ABOUT 10000 FEET IS 15 KNOTS OR LESS, THEREFORE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
TEND TO WEAKEN WITH AN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN EXTENT. A FEW LOCALES
WILL GET SOME NEEDED RAIN IN THE FORM OF DOWNPOURS.

WE THEREFORE KEPT LOW POPS POPS GOING FOR A TIME THROUGH EARLY TO
MID EVENING, ALTHOUGH INCREASED THEM A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST.
SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO HANG ONTO SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT,
HOWEVER THAT MAY BE OVERDONE. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO A NORTHERN JET STREAK PULLING NORTHWARD MOISTURE
FROM AN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST.

IT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE DEW POINTS
TEND TO HANG NEAR THE MUGGY LEVEL. SOME FASTER COOLING THIS EVENING
THOUGH SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH A SEA BREEZE, WHICH
WILL WEAKEN. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND THEN
MADE SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOME ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE REACHES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS PROVIDES SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEARBY. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, AND
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL DOES NOT HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND SINCE THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW WE
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION ATTM. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS ARE AROUND TO START THE DAY AS SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AROUND DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE, A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE
AROUND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. A RATHER
WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ANY NOTABLE COOLING ALOFT IS MOSTLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT,
WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS MOS FOR MOST PLACES REGARDING
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: IN GENERAL, A FAIRLY STRONG SUMMER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH ONLY A
MINOR WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY, AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SEWD TOWARD THE MARITIMES
(55N/55W). THAT PERMITS A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALOFT
LATE THIS COMING WORKWEEK AND SO AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
SLIPS SOUTHWARD. ITS COOLING EFFECTIVENESS FELT PRIMARILY ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 29TH WAS AVERAGING NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL. KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES
BELOW NORMAL. KTTN KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING ~1 TO ~2F ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL WARM THESE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH.

CALENDAR DAY DEPARTURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES N AND NW
OF KPHL OVER E PA AND THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NJ. THEREAFTER, FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD STILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
NORMAL, POSSIBLY STILL 10 DEGREES ABOVE, ESPECIALLY NW OF I-95.
HOW MUCH COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY AND BEYOND IS DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST IMPACT OF
COOLING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE COASTS.
SST`S ARE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SO THE COOLING EFFECTIVENESS IS LESS.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 12Z/30 GFS MOS WAS THE
PRIMARY GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT, 12Z/30 MEX MOS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN THE 1521Z/30 WPC GRIDDED
ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE EXCEPTION HERE...WAS MEX AND WPC
MIN TEMPS WERE BLENDED 50 50 FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT.

HAZARDS...

A HEAT WAVE WILL BE IN PROGRESS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE I-95
CORRIDOR EASTWARD TO NEAR THE COASTS, ITS DURATION SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 4 DAYS WHETHER OR NOT IT BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON OR MONDAY.
THE QUESTION, DOES IT BREAK ANYTIME FRIDAY-SUNDAY OR JUST GO ON
AND ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE INTERIOR NEAR AND NW OF I-95.
IT IS POSSIBLE THE I-95 CORRIDOR COULD SEE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE
BEYOND 6 DAYS (TODAY-SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK SOLID FOR 90-95F
AND FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE OF 90 PLUS). MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THIS HEAT WAVE SO FAR ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE WE WILL NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR EITHER OF ANY THREE AFTERNOONS
BETWEEN THIS COMING WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM DRENCHING RAINS? NEAR THE COOL FRONT FRIDAY BUT OVERALL
AS PER WPC, THE DRY SPELL IS GOING TO LAST QUITE AWHILE, POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE START OF LABOR DAY WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...FAIR AND HOT AFTERNOONS WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE, MAINLY NW NJ AND E
PA. LIGHT WINDS TEND TO BE W-NW DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SMALL CHC
OF CONVECTION E PA AND NNJ WED AFTN AND THU AFTN PER INSTABILITY
INDICATORS INCLUDING KI.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN HEAVY SOUTHWARD
MOVING CONVECTION BUT ONLY IN A PWAT OF 1.6 INCHES. SLOW MOVERS-
GULLY WASHERS WHERE THEY OCCUR BUT LITTLE PREDICTABILITY ATTM EXCEPT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST INLAND.  POTENTIALLY STILL
90F VCNTY KPHL SWWD AND WESTWARD ON FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS HIGHER,
AROUND 70F AND 1400J ML CAPE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS POOR FOR ANY
SVR. STRATUS FOG POTENTIAL AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY I-80
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEKEND...FAIR AND VERY WARM. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING
CONVECTION POCONOS TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND KRDG PER ECMWF KI AND
A TENDENCY FOR UPSLOPE FLOW-LIFT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE THESE NEXT 6 DAYS: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET,
ALONG WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND
KILG DUE TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE. A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE NEAR THE KABE TO KRDG AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM TO ARRIVE MAINLY NEAR THE KABE AND KRDG AREAS THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS.

MONDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR DUE TO FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR.
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE, THE CHANCE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG/ST POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,
MAINLY NEAR KABE-KRDG. LIGHT WIND, TENDS BE NW EACH AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE.  IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE N OF I-80 LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. MVFR
OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN NELY FLOW NEAR AND N OF I-80 WITH
POSSIBLE IFR VSBY IN FOG AT NIGHT.

OVERALL LONG TERM AVIATION FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC WHICH WILL KEEP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.
AN INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING AND A SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION, AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SEAS
OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE ACROSS OUR
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...ATLC SEAS MAY INCREASE AS AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BUT
ATTM, BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL, 10-11 SECONDS, CONTINUES TO
ROLL IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN TRICKY CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITHIN THE SURF ZONE
ESPECIALLY DURING TIDE CHANGES. AS A RESULT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

THE OUTLOOK IS FOR GENERALLY LOW ENHANCED CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH
A SLIGHTLY SUBSIDING 1-2 FOOT 10 SECOND SE SWELL. ITS POSSIBLE WE
WILL STILL NEED TO CARRY A MDT RISK ON MONDAY BASED ON THE VERY SLOW
TO SUBSIDE SWELL OF TODAY-SUNDAY.

NEXT FRIDAY ONWARD MAY SEE THE RISK INCREASE, WITH A CHANCE OF MODERATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR LABOR DAY DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS WESTWARD SWEEPING SWELLS. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY NEXT WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME, SWIM SAFELY WITHIN THE WATCHFUL SAFETY VIEW OF
OUR BEACH PATROLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS SECTION MAY BE DISCARDED TONIGHT.

AUGUST: KPHL (POR 1872) AND KACY (POR 1874), BARRING ANY MORE RAIN
THIS MONTH, WILL BE 10TH DRIEST ON RECORD WITH 0.98 AND 1.25"
RESPECTIVELY. THE KILG 1.54 INCHES IS 13TH DRIEST ON RECORD
PROVIDED NO MORE RAIN FALLS BEFORE 1 AM TUESDAY.

LISTING THE SEASONS 90F OR WARMER DAYS AS INFO FOR YOU TO ADD ONTO
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THESE TOTALS AS OF THE 29TH AND DO NOT INCLUDE TODAYS 90 PLUS.


KPHL 28, MEAN 21. IF WE ADD 5 MORE DAYS 90F BETWEEN NOW AND SEPT
9 (TOTAL PROJECTED AT LEAST 33) AND KPHL WILL HAVE THE 18TH
HIGHEST SEASONAL TOTAL OF 90 OR HIGHER. POR TO 1872

KABE 12  POR MEAN 17
KACY 16  POR MEAN 10
KILG 11  POR MEAN 20

SAMPLING OF OTHER LOCATION TOTALS FOR 2015 ARE BELOW.
KPNE 30
KVAY 15
KRDG 17
KTTN 20
KGED 18
KFWN 6

RECORDS: NONE POSTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RECORDS ARE MORE
VULNERABLE FRIDAY-SUNDAY BUT AT THIS TIME NOT WORTH POSTING.

THE CLOSEST POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD POTENTIAL APPEARS TO KACY ON
WED/THU OF THIS WEEK WITH A 94 IN 1980 ON THE 2ND AND 95 IN 1994
ON THE 3RD. AGAIN, COASTAL SEA BREEZES WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE.

OTHERWISE MANY RECORDS NEAR 100F WERE ESTABLISHED IN 1953 BETWEEN
AUGUST 31 AND SEPTEMBER 3RD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 423
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 423
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...423
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 302023
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
423 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED MAINLY NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
PROBABLY PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND AS IT
DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS
TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SOME
SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ARE ONGOING NEAR OR IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THE OVERALL LIFT, SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE CORES FROM GETTING TO ROBUST. THE INITIATION
EARLY ON APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY TERRAIN IN NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE
MAIN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FLOW
BELOW ABOUT 10000 FEET IS 15 KNOTS OR LESS, THEREFORE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
TEND TO WEAKEN WITH AN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN EXTENT. A FEW LOCALES
WILL GET SOME NEEDED RAIN IN THE FORM OF DOWNPOURS.

WE THEREFORE KEPT LOW POPS POPS GOING FOR A TIME THROUGH EARLY TO
MID EVENING, ALTHOUGH INCREASED THEM A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST.
SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO HANG ONTO SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT,
HOWEVER THAT MAY BE OVERDONE. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO A NORTHERN JET STREAK PULLING NORTHWARD MOISTURE
FROM AN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST.

IT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE DEW POINTS
TEND TO HANG NEAR THE MUGGY LEVEL. SOME FASTER COOLING THIS EVENING
THOUGH SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH A SEA BREEZE, WHICH
WILL WEAKEN. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND THEN
MADE SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOME ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE REACHES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS PROVIDES SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEARBY. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, AND
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL DOES NOT HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND SINCE THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW WE
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION ATTM. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS ARE AROUND TO START THE DAY AS SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AROUND DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE, A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE
AROUND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. A RATHER
WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ANY NOTABLE COOLING ALOFT IS MOSTLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT,
WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS MOS FOR MOST PLACES REGARDING
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: IN GENERAL, A FAIRLY STRONG SUMMER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH ONLY A
MINOR WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY, AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SEWD TOWARD THE MARITIMES
(55N/55W). THAT PERMITS A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALOFT
LATE THIS COMING WORKWEEK AND SO AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
SLIPS SOUTHWARD. ITS COOLING EFFECTIVENESS FELT PRIMARILY ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 29TH WAS AVERAGING NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL. KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES
BELOW NORMAL. KTTN KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING ~1 TO ~2F ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL WARM THESE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH.

CALENDAR DAY DEPARTURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES N AND NW
OF KPHL OVER E PA AND THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NJ. THEREAFTER, FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD STILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
NORMAL, POSSIBLY STILL 10 DEGREES ABOVE, ESPECIALLY NW OF I-95.
HOW MUCH COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY AND BEYOND IS DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST IMPACT OF
COOLING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE COASTS.
SST`S ARE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SO THE COOLING EFFECTIVENESS IS LESS.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 12Z/30 GFS MOS WAS THE
PRIMARY GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT, 12Z/30 MEX MOS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN THE 1521Z/30 WPC GRIDDED
ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE EXCEPTION HERE...WAS MEX AND WPC
MIN TEMPS WERE BLENDED 50 50 FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT.

HAZARDS...

A HEAT WAVE WILL BE IN PROGRESS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE I-95
CORRIDOR EASTWARD TO NEAR THE COASTS, ITS DURATION SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 4 DAYS WHETHER OR NOT IT BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON OR MONDAY.
THE QUESTION, DOES IT BREAK ANYTIME FRIDAY-SUNDAY OR JUST GO ON
AND ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE INTERIOR NEAR AND NW OF I-95.
IT IS POSSIBLE THE I-95 CORRIDOR COULD SEE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE
BEYOND 6 DAYS (TODAY-SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK SOLID FOR 90-95F
AND FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE OF 90 PLUS). MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THIS HEAT WAVE SO FAR ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE WE WILL NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR EITHER OF ANY THREE AFTERNOONS
BETWEEN THIS COMING WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM DRENCHING RAINS? NEAR THE COOL FRONT FRIDAY BUT OVERALL
AS PER WPC, THE DRY SPELL IS GOING TO LAST QUITE AWHILE, POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE START OF LABOR DAY WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...FAIR AND HOT AFTERNOONS WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE, MAINLY NW NJ AND E
PA. LIGHT WINDS TEND TO BE W-NW DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SMALL CHC
OF CONVECTION E PA AND NNJ WED AFTN AND THU AFTN PER INSTABILITY
INDICATORS INCLUDING KI.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN HEAVY SOUTHWARD
MOVING CONVECTION BUT ONLY IN A PWAT OF 1.6 INCHES. SLOW MOVERS-
GULLY WASHERS WHERE THEY OCCUR BUT LITTLE PREDICTABILITY ATTM EXCEPT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST INLAND.  POTENTIALLY STILL
90F VCNTY KPHL SWWD AND WESTWARD ON FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS HIGHER,
AROUND 70F AND 1400J ML CAPE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS POOR FOR ANY
SVR. STRATUS FOG POTENTIAL AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY I-80
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEKEND...FAIR AND VERY WARM. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING
CONVECTION POCONOS TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND KRDG PER ECMWF KI AND
A TENDENCY FOR UPSLOPE FLOW-LIFT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE THESE NEXT 6 DAYS: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET,
ALONG WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND
KILG DUE TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE. A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE NEAR THE KABE TO KRDG AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM TO ARRIVE MAINLY NEAR THE KABE AND KRDG AREAS THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS.

MONDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR DUE TO FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR.
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE, THE CHANCE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG/ST POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,
MAINLY NEAR KABE-KRDG. LIGHT WIND, TENDS BE NW EACH AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE.  IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE N OF I-80 LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. MVFR
OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN NELY FLOW NEAR AND N OF I-80 WITH
POSSIBLE IFR VSBY IN FOG AT NIGHT.

OVERALL LONG TERM AVIATION FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC WHICH WILL KEEP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.
AN INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING AND A SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION, AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SEAS
OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE ACROSS OUR
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...ATLC SEAS MAY INCREASE AS AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BUT
ATTM, BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL, 10-11 SECONDS, CONTINUES TO
ROLL IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN TRICKY CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITHIN THE SURF ZONE
ESPECIALLY DURING TIDE CHANGES. AS A RESULT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

THE OUTLOOK IS FOR GENERALLY LOW ENHANCED CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH
A SLIGHTLY SUBSIDING 1-2 FOOT 10 SECOND SE SWELL. ITS POSSIBLE WE
WILL STILL NEED TO CARRY A MDT RISK ON MONDAY BASED ON THE VERY SLOW
TO SUBSIDE SWELL OF TODAY-SUNDAY.

NEXT FRIDAY ONWARD MAY SEE THE RISK INCREASE, WITH A CHANCE OF MODERATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR LABOR DAY DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS WESTWARD SWEEPING SWELLS. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY NEXT WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME, SWIM SAFELY WITHIN THE WATCHFUL SAFETY VIEW OF
OUR BEACH PATROLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS SECTION MAY BE DISCARDED TONIGHT.

AUGUST: KPHL (POR 1872) AND KACY (POR 1874), BARRING ANY MORE RAIN
THIS MONTH, WILL BE 10TH DRIEST ON RECORD WITH 0.98 AND 1.25"
RESPECTIVELY. THE KILG 1.54 INCHES IS 13TH DRIEST ON RECORD
PROVIDED NO MORE RAIN FALLS BEFORE 1 AM TUESDAY.

LISTING THE SEASONS 90F OR WARMER DAYS AS INFO FOR YOU TO ADD ONTO
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THESE TOTALS AS OF THE 29TH AND DO NOT INCLUDE TODAYS 90 PLUS.


KPHL 28, MEAN 21. IF WE ADD 5 MORE DAYS 90F BETWEEN NOW AND SEPT
9 (TOTAL PROJECTED AT LEAST 33) AND KPHL WILL HAVE THE 18TH
HIGHEST SEASONAL TOTAL OF 90 OR HIGHER. POR TO 1872

KABE 12  POR MEAN 17
KACY 16  POR MEAN 10
KILG 11  POR MEAN 20

SAMPLING OF OTHER LOCATION TOTALS FOR 2015 ARE BELOW.
KPNE 30
KVAY 15
KRDG 17
KTTN 20
KGED 18
KFWN 6

RECORDS: NONE POSTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RECORDS ARE MORE
VULNERABLE FRIDAY-SUNDAY BUT AT THIS TIME NOT WORTH POSTING.

THE CLOSEST POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD POTENTIAL APPEARS TO KACY ON
WED/THU OF THIS WEEK WITH A 94 IN 1980 ON THE 2ND AND 95 IN 1994
ON THE 3RD. AGAIN, COASTAL SEA BREEZES WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE.

OTHERWISE MANY RECORDS NEAR 100F WERE ESTABLISHED IN 1953 BETWEEN
AUGUST 31 AND SEPTEMBER 3RD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 423
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 423
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...423
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 302023
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
423 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED MAINLY NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
PROBABLY PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND AS IT
DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS
TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SOME
SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ARE ONGOING NEAR OR IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THE OVERALL LIFT, SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE CORES FROM GETTING TO ROBUST. THE INITIATION
EARLY ON APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY TERRAIN IN NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE
MAIN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FLOW
BELOW ABOUT 10000 FEET IS 15 KNOTS OR LESS, THEREFORE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
TEND TO WEAKEN WITH AN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN EXTENT. A FEW LOCALES
WILL GET SOME NEEDED RAIN IN THE FORM OF DOWNPOURS.

WE THEREFORE KEPT LOW POPS POPS GOING FOR A TIME THROUGH EARLY TO
MID EVENING, ALTHOUGH INCREASED THEM A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST.
SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO HANG ONTO SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT,
HOWEVER THAT MAY BE OVERDONE. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO A NORTHERN JET STREAK PULLING NORTHWARD MOISTURE
FROM AN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST.

IT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE DEW POINTS
TEND TO HANG NEAR THE MUGGY LEVEL. SOME FASTER COOLING THIS EVENING
THOUGH SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH A SEA BREEZE, WHICH
WILL WEAKEN. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND THEN
MADE SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOME ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE REACHES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS PROVIDES SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEARBY. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, AND
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL DOES NOT HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND SINCE THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW WE
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION ATTM. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS ARE AROUND TO START THE DAY AS SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AROUND DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE, A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE
AROUND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. A RATHER
WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ANY NOTABLE COOLING ALOFT IS MOSTLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT,
WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS MOS FOR MOST PLACES REGARDING
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: IN GENERAL, A FAIRLY STRONG SUMMER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH ONLY A
MINOR WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY, AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SEWD TOWARD THE MARITIMES
(55N/55W). THAT PERMITS A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALOFT
LATE THIS COMING WORKWEEK AND SO AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
SLIPS SOUTHWARD. ITS COOLING EFFECTIVENESS FELT PRIMARILY ON THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 29TH WAS AVERAGING NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL. KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES
BELOW NORMAL. KTTN KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING ~1 TO ~2F ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL WARM THESE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH.

CALENDAR DAY DEPARTURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES N AND NW
OF KPHL OVER E PA AND THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NJ. THEREAFTER, FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD STILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE
NORMAL, POSSIBLY STILL 10 DEGREES ABOVE, ESPECIALLY NW OF I-95.
HOW MUCH COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY AND BEYOND IS DEPENDENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW. IT APPEARS THE GREATEST IMPACT OF
COOLING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE COASTS.
SST`S ARE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SO THE COOLING EFFECTIVENESS IS LESS.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 12Z/30 GFS MOS WAS THE
PRIMARY GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT, 12Z/30 MEX MOS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN THE 1521Z/30 WPC GRIDDED
ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE EXCEPTION HERE...WAS MEX AND WPC
MIN TEMPS WERE BLENDED 50 50 FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT.

HAZARDS...

A HEAT WAVE WILL BE IN PROGRESS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE I-95
CORRIDOR EASTWARD TO NEAR THE COASTS, ITS DURATION SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 4 DAYS WHETHER OR NOT IT BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON OR MONDAY.
THE QUESTION, DOES IT BREAK ANYTIME FRIDAY-SUNDAY OR JUST GO ON
AND ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE INTERIOR NEAR AND NW OF I-95.
IT IS POSSIBLE THE I-95 CORRIDOR COULD SEE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE
BEYOND 6 DAYS (TODAY-SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK SOLID FOR 90-95F
AND FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE OF 90 PLUS). MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THIS HEAT WAVE SO FAR ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE WE WILL NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR EITHER OF ANY THREE AFTERNOONS
BETWEEN THIS COMING WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM DRENCHING RAINS? NEAR THE COOL FRONT FRIDAY BUT OVERALL
AS PER WPC, THE DRY SPELL IS GOING TO LAST QUITE AWHILE, POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE START OF LABOR DAY WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...FAIR AND HOT AFTERNOONS WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE, MAINLY NW NJ AND E
PA. LIGHT WINDS TEND TO BE W-NW DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SMALL CHC
OF CONVECTION E PA AND NNJ WED AFTN AND THU AFTN PER INSTABILITY
INDICATORS INCLUDING KI.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN HEAVY SOUTHWARD
MOVING CONVECTION BUT ONLY IN A PWAT OF 1.6 INCHES. SLOW MOVERS-
GULLY WASHERS WHERE THEY OCCUR BUT LITTLE PREDICTABILITY ATTM EXCEPT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST INLAND.  POTENTIALLY STILL
90F VCNTY KPHL SWWD AND WESTWARD ON FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS HIGHER,
AROUND 70F AND 1400J ML CAPE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS POOR FOR ANY
SVR. STRATUS FOG POTENTIAL AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY I-80
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEKEND...FAIR AND VERY WARM. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING
CONVECTION POCONOS TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND KRDG PER ECMWF KI AND
A TENDENCY FOR UPSLOPE FLOW-LIFT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE THESE NEXT 6 DAYS: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET,
ALONG WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND
KILG DUE TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE. A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE NEAR THE KABE TO KRDG AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM TO ARRIVE MAINLY NEAR THE KABE AND KRDG AREAS THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS.

MONDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR DUE TO FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR.
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE, THE CHANCE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG/ST POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,
MAINLY NEAR KABE-KRDG. LIGHT WIND, TENDS BE NW EACH AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE.  IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE N OF I-80 LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. MVFR
OR IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN NELY FLOW NEAR AND N OF I-80 WITH
POSSIBLE IFR VSBY IN FOG AT NIGHT.

OVERALL LONG TERM AVIATION FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC WHICH WILL KEEP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.
AN INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING AND A SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION, AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SEAS
OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE ACROSS OUR
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...ATLC SEAS MAY INCREASE AS AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS BUT
ATTM, BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL, 10-11 SECONDS, CONTINUES TO
ROLL IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN TRICKY CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITHIN THE SURF ZONE
ESPECIALLY DURING TIDE CHANGES. AS A RESULT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

THE OUTLOOK IS FOR GENERALLY LOW ENHANCED CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH
A SLIGHTLY SUBSIDING 1-2 FOOT 10 SECOND SE SWELL. ITS POSSIBLE WE
WILL STILL NEED TO CARRY A MDT RISK ON MONDAY BASED ON THE VERY SLOW
TO SUBSIDE SWELL OF TODAY-SUNDAY.

NEXT FRIDAY ONWARD MAY SEE THE RISK INCREASE, WITH A CHANCE OF MODERATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR LABOR DAY DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS WESTWARD SWEEPING SWELLS. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY NEXT WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME, SWIM SAFELY WITHIN THE WATCHFUL SAFETY VIEW OF
OUR BEACH PATROLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS SECTION MAY BE DISCARDED TONIGHT.

AUGUST: KPHL (POR 1872) AND KACY (POR 1874), BARRING ANY MORE RAIN
THIS MONTH, WILL BE 10TH DRIEST ON RECORD WITH 0.98 AND 1.25"
RESPECTIVELY. THE KILG 1.54 INCHES IS 13TH DRIEST ON RECORD
PROVIDED NO MORE RAIN FALLS BEFORE 1 AM TUESDAY.

LISTING THE SEASONS 90F OR WARMER DAYS AS INFO FOR YOU TO ADD ONTO
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THESE TOTALS AS OF THE 29TH AND DO NOT INCLUDE TODAYS 90 PLUS.


KPHL 28, MEAN 21. IF WE ADD 5 MORE DAYS 90F BETWEEN NOW AND SEPT
9 (TOTAL PROJECTED AT LEAST 33) AND KPHL WILL HAVE THE 18TH
HIGHEST SEASONAL TOTAL OF 90 OR HIGHER. POR TO 1872

KABE 12  POR MEAN 17
KACY 16  POR MEAN 10
KILG 11  POR MEAN 20

SAMPLING OF OTHER LOCATION TOTALS FOR 2015 ARE BELOW.
KPNE 30
KVAY 15
KRDG 17
KTTN 20
KGED 18
KFWN 6

RECORDS: NONE POSTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RECORDS ARE MORE
VULNERABLE FRIDAY-SUNDAY BUT AT THIS TIME NOT WORTH POSTING.

THE CLOSEST POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD POTENTIAL APPEARS TO KACY ON
WED/THU OF THIS WEEK WITH A 94 IN 1980 ON THE 2ND AND 95 IN 1994
ON THE 3RD. AGAIN, COASTAL SEA BREEZES WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE.

OTHERWISE MANY RECORDS NEAR 100F WERE ESTABLISHED IN 1953 BETWEEN
AUGUST 31 AND SEPTEMBER 3RD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 423
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 423
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...423
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 301959
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED MAINLY NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
PROBABLY PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND AS IT
DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS
TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SOME
SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ARE ONGOING NEAR OR IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THE OVERALL LIFT, SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE CORES FROM GETTING TO ROBUST. THE INITIATION
EARLY ON APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY TERRAIN IN NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE
MAIN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FLOW
BELOW ABOUT 10000 FEET IS 15 KNOTS OR LESS, THEREFORE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
TEND TO WEAKEN WITH AN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN EXTENT. A FEW LOCALES
WILL GET SOME NEEDED RAIN IN THE FORM OF DOWNPOURS.

WE THEREFORE KEPT LOW POPS POPS GOING FOR A TIME THROUGH EARLY TO
MID EVENING, ALTHOUGH INCREASED THEM A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST.
SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO HANG ONTO SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT,
HOWEVER THAT MAY BE OVERDONE. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO A NORTHERN JET STREAK PULLING NORTHWARD MOISTURE
FROM AN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST.

IT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE DEW POINTS
TEND TO HANG NEAR THE MUGGY LEVEL. SOME FASTER COOLING THIS EVENING
THOUGH SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH A SEA BREEZE, WHICH
WILL WEAKEN. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND THEN
MADE SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOME ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE REACHES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS PROVIDES SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEARBY. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, AND
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL DOES NOT HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND SINCE THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW WE
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION ATTM. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS ARE AROUND TO START THE DAY AS SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AROUND DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE, A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE
AROUND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. A RATHER
WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ANY NOTABLE COOLING ALOFT IS MOSTLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT,
WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS MOS FOR MOST PLACES REGARDING
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

500 MB: IN GENERAL, A FAIRLY STRONG SUMMER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH ONLY A
MINOR WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY, AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SEWD TOWARD THE MARITIMES
(55N/55W). THAT PERMITS A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALOFT
LATE THIS COMING WORKWEEK AND SO AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY SLIPS
SOUTHWARD. ITS COOLING EFFECTIVENESS FELT PRIMARILY ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 29TH WAS AVERAGING NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL. KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES
BELOW NORMAL. KTTN KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING ~1 TO ~2F ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL WARM THESE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH.

CALENDAR DAY DEPARTURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES N AND NW
OF KPHL OF E PA AND THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NJ. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SHOULD STILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL, POSSIBLY STILL
10 DEGREES ABOVE, ESPECIALLY NW OF I-95. HOW MUCH COOLING OCCURS
FRIDAY AND BEYOND IS DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW. IT
APPEARS THE GREATEST IMPACT OF COOLING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE
SOUTHERN NJ AND DE COASTS.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 12Z/30 GFS MOS WAS THE
PRIMARY GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT, 12Z/30 MEX MOS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN THE 1521Z/30 WPC GRIDDED
ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE EXCEPTION HERE...WAS MEX AND WPC
MIN TEMPS WERE BLENDED 50 50 FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT.

HAZARDS...

A HEAT WAVE WILL BE IN PROGRESS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE I-95
CORRIDOR EASTWARD TO NEAR THE COASTS, ITS DURATION SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 4 DAYS WHETHER OR NOT IT BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON OR MONDAY.
THE QUESTION, DOES IT BREAK ANYTIME FRIDAY-SUNDAY OR JUST GO ON
AND ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE INTERIOR NEAR AND NW OF I-95.
IT IS POSSIBLE THE I-95 CORRIDOR COULD SEE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE
BEYOND 6 DAYS (TODAY-SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK SOLID FOR 90-95F
AND FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE OF 90 PLUS). MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THIS HEAT WAVE SO FAR ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE WE WILL NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR EITHER OF ANY THREE AFTERNOONS
BETWEEN THIS COMING WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM DRENCHING RAINS? NEAR THE COOL FRONT FRIDAY BUT OVERALL
AS PER WPC, THE DRY SPELL IS GOING TO LAST QUITE AWHILE, POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE START OF LABOR DAY WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...FAIR AND HOT AFTERNOONS WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE, MAINLY NW NJ AND E
PA. LIGHT WINDS TEND TO BE W-NW DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SMALL CHC
OF CONVECTION E PA AND NNJ WED AFTN AND THU AFTN PER INSTABILITY
INDICATORS INCLUDING KI.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN HEAVY SOUTHWARD
MOVING CONVECTION BUT ONLY IN A PWAT OF 1.6 INCHES. SLOW MOVERS-
GULLY WASHERS WHERE THEY OCCUR BUT LITTLE PREDICTABILITY ATTM EXCEPT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST INLAND.  POTENTIALLY STILL
90F VCNTY KPHL SWWD AND WESTWARD ON FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS HIGHER,
AROUND 70F AND 1400J ML CAPE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS POOR FOR ANY
SVR. STRATUS FOG POTENTIAL AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY I-80
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEKEND...FAIR AND VERY WARM. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING
CONVECTION POCONOS TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND KRDG PER ECMWF KI AND
A TENDENCY FOR UPSLOPE FLOW-LIFT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE THESE NEXT 6 DAYS: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET,
ALONG WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND
KILG DUE TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE. A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE NEAR THE KABE TO KRDG AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM TO ARRIVE MAINLY NEAR THE KABE AND KRDG AREAS THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS.

MONDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR DUE TO FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR.
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE, THE CHANCE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG/ST POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,
MAINLY NEAR KABE-KRDG. LIGHT WIND, TENDS BE NW EACH AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE.  IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE N OF I-80 LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS.  MVFR OR IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING IN NELY FLOW NEAR AND N OF I-80 WITH POSSIBLE IFR
VSBY IN FOG AT NIGHT.

OVERALL LONG TERM AVIATION FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC WHICH WILL KEEP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.
AN INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING AND A SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION, AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SEAS
OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE ACROSS OUR
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...ATLC SEAS MAY INCREASE AS AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOP BUT
ATTM, BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL, 10-11 SECONDS, CONTINUES TO
ROLL IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN TRICKY CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITHIN THE SURF ZONE
ESPECIALLY DURING TIDE CHANGES. AS A RESULT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

THE OUTLOOK IS FOR GENERALLY LOW ENHANCED CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH
A SLIGHTLY SUBSIDING 1-2 FOOT 10 SECOND SE SWELL. ITS POSSIBLE WE
WILL STILL NEED TO CARRY A MDT RISK ON MONDAY BASED ON THE VERY SLOW
TO SUBSIDE SWELL OF TODAY-SUNDAY.

NEXT FRIDAY ONWARD MAY SEE THE RISK INCREASE, WITH A CHANCE OF MODERATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS WESTWARD SWEEPING SWELLS. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY NEXT WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME, SWIM SAFELY WITHIN THE WATCHFUL SAFETY VIEW OF
OUR BEACH PATROLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS SECTION MAY BE DISCARDED TONIGHT.

AUGUST: KPHL (POR 1872) AND KACY (POR 1874), BARRING ANY MORE RAIN
THIS MONTH, WILL BE 10TH DRIEST ON RECORD WITH 0.98 AND 1.25"
RESPECTIVELY. THE KILG 1.54 INCHES IS 13TH DRIEST ON RECORD
PROVIDED NO MORE RAIN FALLS BEFORE 1 AM TUESDAY.

LISTING THE SEASONS 90F OR WARMER DAYS AS INFO FOR YOU TO ADD ONTO
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THESE TOTALS AS OF THE 29TH AND DO NOT INCLUDE TODAYS 90 PLUS.


KPHL 28, MEAN 21. IF WE ADD 5 MORE DAYS 90F BETWEEN NOW AND SEPT
9 (TOTAL PROJECTED AT LEAST 33) AND KPHL WILL HAVE THE 18TH
HIGHEST SEASONAL TOTAL OF 90 OR HIGHER. POR TO 1872

KABE 12  POR MEAN 17
KACY 16  POR MEAN 10
KILG 11  POR MEAN 20

SAMPLING OF OTHER LOCATION TOTALS FOR 2015 ARE BELOW.
KPNE 30
KVAY 15
KRDG 17
KTTN 20
KGED 18
KFWN 6

RECORDS: NONE POSTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RECORDS ARE MORE
VULNERABLE FRIDAY-SUNDAY BUT AT THIS TIME NOT WORTH POSTING.

THE CLOSEST POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD POTENTIAL APPEARS TO KACY ON
WED/THU OF THIS WEEK WITH A 94 IN 1980 ON THE 2ND AND 95 IN 1994
ON THE 3RD. AGAIN, COASTAL SEA BREEZES WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE.

OTHERWISE MANY RECORDS NEAR 100F WERE ESTABLISHED IN 1953 BETWEEN
AUGUST 31 AND SEPTEMBER 3RD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE 4P
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 4P
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 4P
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 4P
RIP CURRENTS...4P
CLIMATE...4P




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301959
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN CENTERED MAINLY NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH
OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
PROBABLY PROVIDING A LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT THIS COMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND AS IT
DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS
TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SOME
SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ARE ONGOING NEAR OR IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THE OVERALL LIFT, SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE CORES FROM GETTING TO ROBUST. THE INITIATION
EARLY ON APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY TERRAIN IN NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE
MAIN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FLOW
BELOW ABOUT 10000 FEET IS 15 KNOTS OR LESS, THEREFORE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
TEND TO WEAKEN WITH AN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN EXTENT. A FEW LOCALES
WILL GET SOME NEEDED RAIN IN THE FORM OF DOWNPOURS.

WE THEREFORE KEPT LOW POPS POPS GOING FOR A TIME THROUGH EARLY TO
MID EVENING, ALTHOUGH INCREASED THEM A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST.
SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO HANG ONTO SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT,
HOWEVER THAT MAY BE OVERDONE. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO A NORTHERN JET STREAK PULLING NORTHWARD MOISTURE
FROM AN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST.

IT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE DEW POINTS
TEND TO HANG NEAR THE MUGGY LEVEL. SOME FASTER COOLING THIS EVENING
THOUGH SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH A SEA BREEZE, WHICH
WILL WEAKEN. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND THEN
MADE SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOME ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE REACHES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS PROVIDES SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEARBY. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, AND
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL DOES NOT HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND SINCE THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW WE
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION ATTM. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS ARE AROUND TO START THE DAY AS SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AROUND DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE, A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE
AROUND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. A RATHER
WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ANY NOTABLE COOLING ALOFT IS MOSTLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT,
WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS MOS FOR MOST PLACES REGARDING
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

500 MB: IN GENERAL, A FAIRLY STRONG SUMMER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH ONLY A
MINOR WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY, AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVES SEWD TOWARD THE MARITIMES
(55N/55W). THAT PERMITS A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALOFT
LATE THIS COMING WORKWEEK AND SO AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY SLIPS
SOUTHWARD. ITS COOLING EFFECTIVENESS FELT PRIMARILY ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 29TH WAS AVERAGING NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL. KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES
BELOW NORMAL. KTTN KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING ~1 TO ~2F ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL WARM THESE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH.

CALENDAR DAY DEPARTURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES N AND NW
OF KPHL OF E PA AND THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NJ. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SHOULD STILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES OR MORE ABOVE NORMAL, POSSIBLY STILL
10 DEGREES ABOVE, ESPECIALLY NW OF I-95. HOW MUCH COOLING OCCURS
FRIDAY AND BEYOND IS DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW. IT
APPEARS THE GREATEST IMPACT OF COOLING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE
SOUTHERN NJ AND DE COASTS.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 12Z/30 GFS MOS WAS THE
PRIMARY GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT, 12Z/30 MEX MOS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN THE 1521Z/30 WPC GRIDDED
ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE EXCEPTION HERE...WAS MEX AND WPC
MIN TEMPS WERE BLENDED 50 50 FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT.

HAZARDS...

A HEAT WAVE WILL BE IN PROGRESS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE I-95
CORRIDOR EASTWARD TO NEAR THE COASTS, ITS DURATION SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 4 DAYS WHETHER OR NOT IT BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON OR MONDAY.
THE QUESTION, DOES IT BREAK ANYTIME FRIDAY-SUNDAY OR JUST GO ON
AND ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE INTERIOR NEAR AND NW OF I-95.
IT IS POSSIBLE THE I-95 CORRIDOR COULD SEE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE
BEYOND 6 DAYS (TODAY-SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK SOLID FOR 90-95F
AND FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE A BETTER THAN EVEN CHANCE OF 90 PLUS). MAX
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THIS HEAT WAVE SO FAR ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE WE WILL NEED A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR EITHER OF ANY THREE AFTERNOONS
BETWEEN THIS COMING WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY.

THUNDERSTORM DRENCHING RAINS? NEAR THE COOL FRONT FRIDAY BUT OVERALL
AS PER WPC, THE DRY SPELL IS GOING TO LAST QUITE AWHILE, POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE START OF LABOR DAY WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...FAIR AND HOT AFTERNOONS WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE, MAINLY NW NJ AND E
PA. LIGHT WINDS TEND TO BE W-NW DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SMALL CHC
OF CONVECTION E PA AND NNJ WED AFTN AND THU AFTN PER INSTABILITY
INDICATORS INCLUDING KI.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN HEAVY SOUTHWARD
MOVING CONVECTION BUT ONLY IN A PWAT OF 1.6 INCHES. SLOW MOVERS-
GULLY WASHERS WHERE THEY OCCUR BUT LITTLE PREDICTABILITY ATTM EXCEPT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST INLAND.  POTENTIALLY STILL
90F VCNTY KPHL SWWD AND WESTWARD ON FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS HIGHER,
AROUND 70F AND 1400J ML CAPE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS POOR FOR ANY
SVR. STRATUS FOG POTENTIAL AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY I-80
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEKEND...FAIR AND VERY WARM. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING
CONVECTION POCONOS TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND KRDG PER ECMWF KI AND
A TENDENCY FOR UPSLOPE FLOW-LIFT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE THESE NEXT 6 DAYS: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET,
ALONG WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND
KILG DUE TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE. A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE NEAR THE KABE TO KRDG AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM TO ARRIVE MAINLY NEAR THE KABE AND KRDG AREAS THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS.

MONDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR DUE TO FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR.
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE, THE CHANCE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG/ST POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,
MAINLY NEAR KABE-KRDG. LIGHT WIND, TENDS BE NW EACH AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE.  IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE N OF I-80 LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS.  MVFR OR IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING IN NELY FLOW NEAR AND N OF I-80 WITH POSSIBLE IFR
VSBY IN FOG AT NIGHT.

OVERALL LONG TERM AVIATION FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC WHICH WILL KEEP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.
AN INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING AND A SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION, AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SEAS
OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE ACROSS OUR
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...ATLC SEAS MAY INCREASE AS AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOP BUT
ATTM, BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL, 10-11 SECONDS, CONTINUES TO
ROLL IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN TRICKY CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITHIN THE SURF ZONE
ESPECIALLY DURING TIDE CHANGES. AS A RESULT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

THE OUTLOOK IS FOR GENERALLY LOW ENHANCED CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH
A SLIGHTLY SUBSIDING 1-2 FOOT 10 SECOND SE SWELL. ITS POSSIBLE WE
WILL STILL NEED TO CARRY A MDT RISK ON MONDAY BASED ON THE VERY SLOW
TO SUBSIDE SWELL OF TODAY-SUNDAY.

NEXT FRIDAY ONWARD MAY SEE THE RISK INCREASE, WITH A CHANCE OF MODERATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS WESTWARD SWEEPING SWELLS. LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY NEXT WEEKEND.

IN THE MEANTIME, SWIM SAFELY WITHIN THE WATCHFUL SAFETY VIEW OF
OUR BEACH PATROLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS SECTION MAY BE DISCARDED TONIGHT.

AUGUST: KPHL (POR 1872) AND KACY (POR 1874), BARRING ANY MORE RAIN
THIS MONTH, WILL BE 10TH DRIEST ON RECORD WITH 0.98 AND 1.25"
RESPECTIVELY. THE KILG 1.54 INCHES IS 13TH DRIEST ON RECORD
PROVIDED NO MORE RAIN FALLS BEFORE 1 AM TUESDAY.

LISTING THE SEASONS 90F OR WARMER DAYS AS INFO FOR YOU TO ADD ONTO
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THESE TOTALS AS OF THE 29TH AND DO NOT INCLUDE TODAYS 90 PLUS.


KPHL 28, MEAN 21. IF WE ADD 5 MORE DAYS 90F BETWEEN NOW AND SEPT
9 (TOTAL PROJECTED AT LEAST 33) AND KPHL WILL HAVE THE 18TH
HIGHEST SEASONAL TOTAL OF 90 OR HIGHER. POR TO 1872

KABE 12  POR MEAN 17
KACY 16  POR MEAN 10
KILG 11  POR MEAN 20

SAMPLING OF OTHER LOCATION TOTALS FOR 2015 ARE BELOW.
KPNE 30
KVAY 15
KRDG 17
KTTN 20
KGED 18
KFWN 6

RECORDS: NONE POSTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RECORDS ARE MORE
VULNERABLE FRIDAY-SUNDAY BUT AT THIS TIME NOT WORTH POSTING.

THE CLOSEST POSSIBLE NEAR RECORD POTENTIAL APPEARS TO KACY ON
WED/THU OF THIS WEEK WITH A 94 IN 1980 ON THE 2ND AND 95 IN 1994
ON THE 3RD. AGAIN, COASTAL SEA BREEZES WILL PROBABLY PRECLUDE.

OTHERWISE MANY RECORDS NEAR 100F WERE ESTABLISHED IN 1953 BETWEEN
AUGUST 31 AND SEPTEMBER 3RD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE 4P
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 4P
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 4P
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 4P
RIP CURRENTS...4P
CLIMATE...4P





000
FXUS61 KPHI 301851
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
251 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. AN OFFSHORE
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND AS IT
DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS
TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SOME
SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ARE ONGOING NEAR OR IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THE OVERALL LIFT, SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE CORES FROM GETTING TO ROBUST. THE INITIATION
EARLY ON APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY TERRAIN IN NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE
MAIN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FLOW
BELOW ABOUT 10000 FEET IS 15 KNOTS OR LESS, THEREFORE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
TEND TO WEAKEN WITH AN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN EXTENT. A FEW LOCALES
WILL GET SOME NEEDED RAIN IN THE FORM OF DOWNPOURS.

WE THEREFORE KEPT LOW POPS POPS GOING FOR A TIME THROUGH EARLY TO
MID EVENING, ALTHOUGH INCREASED THEM A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST.
SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO HANG ONTO SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT,
HOWEVER THAT MAY BE OVERDONE. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO A NORTHERN JET STREAK PULLING NORTHWARD MOISTURE
FROM AN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST.

IT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE DEW POINTS
TEND TO HANG NEAR THE MUGGY LEVEL. SOME FASTER COOLING THIS EVENING
THOUGH SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH A SEA BREEZE, WHICH
WILL WEAKEN. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND THEN
MADE SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOME ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE REACHES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS PROVIDES SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEARBY. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, AND
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL DOES NOT HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND SINCE THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW WE
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION ATTM. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS ARE AROUND TO START THE DAY AS SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AROUND DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE, A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE
AROUND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. A RATHER
WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ANY NOTABLE COOLING ALOFT IS MOSTLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT,
WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS MOS FOR MOST PLACES REGARDING
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRAFT: TO BE UPDATED AT 330 PM.

500 MB:  A STRONG WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE
EAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY A MINOR WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
DIVES SEWD TOWARD THE MARITIMES (55N/55W). THAT PERMITS A LITTLE
MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALOFT AND SO AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY SLIPS
SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 29TH WAS AVERAGING NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL. KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES
BELOW NORMAL. KTTN KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING ~1 TO ~2F ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL WARM THESE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH.

CALENDAR DAY DEPARTURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES N AND NW
OF KPHL. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD STILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES OR
MORE ABOVE NORMAL.  HOW MUCH COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY AND BEYOND IS
DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW.  IT APPEARS THE GREATEST
IMPACT OF COOLING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE
COASTS.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 12Z/30 GFS MOS WAS THE
PRIMARY GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT, 12Z/30 MEX MOS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THE 1521Z/30 WPC GRIDDED
ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

HAZARDS...

A HEAT WAVE WILL BE IN PROGRESS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE I-95
CORRIDOR EASTWARD TO NEAR THE COASTS, ITS DURATION SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 4 DAYS WHETHER OR NOT IT BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON OR MONDAY.
THE QUESTION, DOES IT BREAK ANYTIME FRIDAY-SUNDAY OR JUST GO ON
AND ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS POSSIBLE THE I-95 CORRIDOR
COULD SEE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE BEYOND 4 DAYS. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THIS HEAT WAVE SO FAR ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

THUNDERSTORM DRENCHING RAINS? NEAR THE COOL FRONT FRIDAY BUT OVERALL
AS PER WPC, THE DRY SPELL IS GOING TO LAST QUITE AWHILE, POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE START OF LABOR DAY WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...FAIR AND HOT AFTERNOONS WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE OF NW NJ AND E PA.
LIGHT WINDS TEND TO BE NW DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SMALL CHC OF
CONVECTION E PA AND NNJ WED AFTN AND THU AFTN BUT MAY BE TOO
LITTLE TO MENTION IN OUR 330 PM FCST.  STILL UNDECIDED.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN HEAVY SOUTHWARD
MOVING CONVECTION BUT ONLY IN A PWAT OF 1.6 INCHES. SLOW MOVERS-
GULLY WASHERS WHERE THEY OCCUR BUT LITTLE PREDICTABILITY ATTM EXCEPT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST INLAND.  POTENTIALLY STILL
90F VCNTY KPHL SWWD AND WESTWARD ON FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS HIGHER,
AROUND 70F AND 1400J ML CAPE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS POOR FOR ANY
SVR. STRATUS FOG POTENTIAL AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING I-80
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEKEND...FAIR AND VERY WARM. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING
CONVECTION POCONOS TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND KRDG BUT AGAIN
PROBABLY TOO SMALL A POP TO MENTION.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE THESE NEXT 6 DAYS: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET,
ALONG WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND
KILG DUE TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE. A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE NEAR THE KABE TO KRDG AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM TO ARRIVE MAINLY NEAR THE KABE AND KRDG AREAS THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS.

MONDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR DUE TO FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR.
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE, THE CHANCE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
DRAFT: WILL UPDATE AT 330 PM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG/ST POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,
MAINLY NEAR KABE-KRDG. LIGHT WIND, TENDS BE NW EACH AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE.  IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE N OF I-80 LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS.  MVFR OR IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING IN NELY FLOW NEAR AND N OF I-80 WITH POSSIBLE IFR
VSBY IN FOG AT NIGHT.

OVERALL LONG TERM AVIATION FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC WHICH WILL KEEP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.
AN INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING AND A SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION, AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SEAS
OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE ACROSS OUR
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
DRAFT: TO BE UPDATED AT 330 PM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...ATLC SEAS MAY INCREASE AS AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOP BUT
ATTM, BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL, 10-11 SECONDS, CONTINUES TO
ROLL IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN TRICKY CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITHIN THE SURF ZONE
ESPECIALLY DURING TIDE CHANGES. AS A RESULT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

THE OUTLOOK IS FOR GENERALLY LOW ENHANCED CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH
A SLIGHTLY SUBSIDING 1-2 FOOT 10 SECOND SE SWELL. ITS POSSIBLE WE
WILL STILL NEED TO CARRY A MDT RISK ON MONDAY BASED ON THE VERY
SLOW TO SUBSIDE SWELL OF TODAY-SUNDAY.

NEXT FRIDAY ONWARD MAY SEE THE RISK INCREASE,  POSSIBLY TO MODERATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS WESTWARD SWEEPING SWELLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS SECTION WILL PROBABLY DISCARD LATER TONIGHT.

AUGUST: KPHL (POR 1872) AND KACY (POR 1874), BARRING ANY MORE RAIN
THIS MONTH, WILL BE 10TH DRIEST ON RECORD WITH 0.98 AND 1.25"
RESPECTIVELY. THE KILG 1.54 INCHES IS 13TH DRIEST ON RECORD
PROVIDED NO MORE RAIN FALLS BEFORE 1 AM TUESDAY.

LISTING THE SEASONS 90F OR WARMER DAYS AS INFO FOR YOU TO ADD ONTO
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

KPHL 28, MEAN 21. IF WE ADD 5 MORE DAYS 90F BETWEEN NOW AND SEPT
9 (TOTAL PROJECTED AT LEAST 33) AND KPHL WILL HAVE THE 18TH
HIGHEST SEASONAL TOTAL OF 90 OR HIGHER. POR TO 1872

KABE 12  POR MEAN 17
KACY 16  POR MEAN 10
KILG 11  POR MEAN 20

SAMPLING OF OTHER LOCATION TOTALS FOR 2015 ARE BELOW.
KPNE 30
KVAY 15
KRDG 17
KTTN 20
KGED 18
KFWN 6

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301851
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
251 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. AN OFFSHORE
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND AS IT
DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS
TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SOME
SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ARE ONGOING NEAR OR IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THE OVERALL LIFT, SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE CORES FROM GETTING TO ROBUST. THE INITIATION
EARLY ON APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY TERRAIN IN NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE
MAIN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FLOW
BELOW ABOUT 10000 FEET IS 15 KNOTS OR LESS, THEREFORE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
TEND TO WEAKEN WITH AN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN EXTENT. A FEW LOCALES
WILL GET SOME NEEDED RAIN IN THE FORM OF DOWNPOURS.

WE THEREFORE KEPT LOW POPS POPS GOING FOR A TIME THROUGH EARLY TO
MID EVENING, ALTHOUGH INCREASED THEM A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST.
SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO HANG ONTO SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT,
HOWEVER THAT MAY BE OVERDONE. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO A NORTHERN JET STREAK PULLING NORTHWARD MOISTURE
FROM AN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST.

IT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE DEW POINTS
TEND TO HANG NEAR THE MUGGY LEVEL. SOME FASTER COOLING THIS EVENING
THOUGH SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH A SEA BREEZE, WHICH
WILL WEAKEN. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND THEN
MADE SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOME ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE REACHES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS PROVIDES SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEARBY. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, AND
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL DOES NOT HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND SINCE THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW WE
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION ATTM. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS ARE AROUND TO START THE DAY AS SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AROUND DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE, A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE
AROUND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. A RATHER
WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ANY NOTABLE COOLING ALOFT IS MOSTLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT,
WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS MOS FOR MOST PLACES REGARDING
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRAFT: TO BE UPDATED AT 330 PM.

500 MB:  A STRONG WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE
EAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY A MINOR WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
DIVES SEWD TOWARD THE MARITIMES (55N/55W). THAT PERMITS A LITTLE
MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALOFT AND SO AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY SLIPS
SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 29TH WAS AVERAGING NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL. KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES
BELOW NORMAL. KTTN KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING ~1 TO ~2F ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL WARM THESE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH.

CALENDAR DAY DEPARTURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES N AND NW
OF KPHL. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD STILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES OR
MORE ABOVE NORMAL.  HOW MUCH COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY AND BEYOND IS
DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW.  IT APPEARS THE GREATEST
IMPACT OF COOLING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE
COASTS.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 12Z/30 GFS MOS WAS THE
PRIMARY GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT, 12Z/30 MEX MOS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THE 1521Z/30 WPC GRIDDED
ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

HAZARDS...

A HEAT WAVE WILL BE IN PROGRESS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE I-95
CORRIDOR EASTWARD TO NEAR THE COASTS, ITS DURATION SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 4 DAYS WHETHER OR NOT IT BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON OR MONDAY.
THE QUESTION, DOES IT BREAK ANYTIME FRIDAY-SUNDAY OR JUST GO ON
AND ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS POSSIBLE THE I-95 CORRIDOR
COULD SEE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE BEYOND 4 DAYS. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THIS HEAT WAVE SO FAR ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

THUNDERSTORM DRENCHING RAINS? NEAR THE COOL FRONT FRIDAY BUT OVERALL
AS PER WPC, THE DRY SPELL IS GOING TO LAST QUITE AWHILE, POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE START OF LABOR DAY WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...FAIR AND HOT AFTERNOONS WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE OF NW NJ AND E PA.
LIGHT WINDS TEND TO BE NW DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SMALL CHC OF
CONVECTION E PA AND NNJ WED AFTN AND THU AFTN BUT MAY BE TOO
LITTLE TO MENTION IN OUR 330 PM FCST.  STILL UNDECIDED.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN HEAVY SOUTHWARD
MOVING CONVECTION BUT ONLY IN A PWAT OF 1.6 INCHES. SLOW MOVERS-
GULLY WASHERS WHERE THEY OCCUR BUT LITTLE PREDICTABILITY ATTM EXCEPT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST INLAND.  POTENTIALLY STILL
90F VCNTY KPHL SWWD AND WESTWARD ON FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS HIGHER,
AROUND 70F AND 1400J ML CAPE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS POOR FOR ANY
SVR. STRATUS FOG POTENTIAL AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING I-80
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEKEND...FAIR AND VERY WARM. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING
CONVECTION POCONOS TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND KRDG BUT AGAIN
PROBABLY TOO SMALL A POP TO MENTION.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE THESE NEXT 6 DAYS: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET,
ALONG WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND
KILG DUE TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE. A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE NEAR THE KABE TO KRDG AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM TO ARRIVE MAINLY NEAR THE KABE AND KRDG AREAS THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS.

MONDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR DUE TO FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR.
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE, THE CHANCE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
DRAFT: WILL UPDATE AT 330 PM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG/ST POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,
MAINLY NEAR KABE-KRDG. LIGHT WIND, TENDS BE NW EACH AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE.  IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE N OF I-80 LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS.  MVFR OR IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING IN NELY FLOW NEAR AND N OF I-80 WITH POSSIBLE IFR
VSBY IN FOG AT NIGHT.

OVERALL LONG TERM AVIATION FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC WHICH WILL KEEP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.
AN INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING AND A SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION, AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SEAS
OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE ACROSS OUR
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
DRAFT: TO BE UPDATED AT 330 PM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...ATLC SEAS MAY INCREASE AS AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOP BUT
ATTM, BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL, 10-11 SECONDS, CONTINUES TO
ROLL IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN TRICKY CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITHIN THE SURF ZONE
ESPECIALLY DURING TIDE CHANGES. AS A RESULT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

THE OUTLOOK IS FOR GENERALLY LOW ENHANCED CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH
A SLIGHTLY SUBSIDING 1-2 FOOT 10 SECOND SE SWELL. ITS POSSIBLE WE
WILL STILL NEED TO CARRY A MDT RISK ON MONDAY BASED ON THE VERY
SLOW TO SUBSIDE SWELL OF TODAY-SUNDAY.

NEXT FRIDAY ONWARD MAY SEE THE RISK INCREASE,  POSSIBLY TO MODERATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS WESTWARD SWEEPING SWELLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS SECTION WILL PROBABLY DISCARD LATER TONIGHT.

AUGUST: KPHL (POR 1872) AND KACY (POR 1874), BARRING ANY MORE RAIN
THIS MONTH, WILL BE 10TH DRIEST ON RECORD WITH 0.98 AND 1.25"
RESPECTIVELY. THE KILG 1.54 INCHES IS 13TH DRIEST ON RECORD
PROVIDED NO MORE RAIN FALLS BEFORE 1 AM TUESDAY.

LISTING THE SEASONS 90F OR WARMER DAYS AS INFO FOR YOU TO ADD ONTO
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

KPHL 28, MEAN 21. IF WE ADD 5 MORE DAYS 90F BETWEEN NOW AND SEPT
9 (TOTAL PROJECTED AT LEAST 33) AND KPHL WILL HAVE THE 18TH
HIGHEST SEASONAL TOTAL OF 90 OR HIGHER. POR TO 1872

KABE 12  POR MEAN 17
KACY 16  POR MEAN 10
KILG 11  POR MEAN 20

SAMPLING OF OTHER LOCATION TOTALS FOR 2015 ARE BELOW.
KPNE 30
KVAY 15
KRDG 17
KTTN 20
KGED 18
KFWN 6

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 301851
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
251 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. AN OFFSHORE
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND AS IT
DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS
TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SOME
SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ARE ONGOING NEAR OR IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THE OVERALL LIFT, SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE CORES FROM GETTING TO ROBUST. THE INITIATION
EARLY ON APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY TERRAIN IN NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE
MAIN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FLOW
BELOW ABOUT 10000 FEET IS 15 KNOTS OR LESS, THEREFORE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
TEND TO WEAKEN WITH AN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN EXTENT. A FEW LOCALES
WILL GET SOME NEEDED RAIN IN THE FORM OF DOWNPOURS.

WE THEREFORE KEPT LOW POPS POPS GOING FOR A TIME THROUGH EARLY TO
MID EVENING, ALTHOUGH INCREASED THEM A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST.
SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO HANG ONTO SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT,
HOWEVER THAT MAY BE OVERDONE. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO A NORTHERN JET STREAK PULLING NORTHWARD MOISTURE
FROM AN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST.

IT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE DEW POINTS
TEND TO HANG NEAR THE MUGGY LEVEL. SOME FASTER COOLING THIS EVENING
THOUGH SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH A SEA BREEZE, WHICH
WILL WEAKEN. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND THEN
MADE SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOME ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE REACHES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS PROVIDES SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEARBY. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, AND
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL DOES NOT HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND SINCE THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW WE
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION ATTM. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS ARE AROUND TO START THE DAY AS SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AROUND DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE, A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE
AROUND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. A RATHER
WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ANY NOTABLE COOLING ALOFT IS MOSTLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT,
WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS MOS FOR MOST PLACES REGARDING
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRAFT: TO BE UPDATED AT 330 PM.

500 MB:  A STRONG WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE
EAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY A MINOR WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
DIVES SEWD TOWARD THE MARITIMES (55N/55W). THAT PERMITS A LITTLE
MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALOFT AND SO AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY SLIPS
SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 29TH WAS AVERAGING NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL. KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES
BELOW NORMAL. KTTN KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING ~1 TO ~2F ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL WARM THESE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH.

CALENDAR DAY DEPARTURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES N AND NW
OF KPHL. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD STILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES OR
MORE ABOVE NORMAL.  HOW MUCH COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY AND BEYOND IS
DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW.  IT APPEARS THE GREATEST
IMPACT OF COOLING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE
COASTS.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 12Z/30 GFS MOS WAS THE
PRIMARY GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT, 12Z/30 MEX MOS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THE 1521Z/30 WPC GRIDDED
ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

HAZARDS...

A HEAT WAVE WILL BE IN PROGRESS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE I-95
CORRIDOR EASTWARD TO NEAR THE COASTS, ITS DURATION SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 4 DAYS WHETHER OR NOT IT BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON OR MONDAY.
THE QUESTION, DOES IT BREAK ANYTIME FRIDAY-SUNDAY OR JUST GO ON
AND ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS POSSIBLE THE I-95 CORRIDOR
COULD SEE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE BEYOND 4 DAYS. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THIS HEAT WAVE SO FAR ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

THUNDERSTORM DRENCHING RAINS? NEAR THE COOL FRONT FRIDAY BUT OVERALL
AS PER WPC, THE DRY SPELL IS GOING TO LAST QUITE AWHILE, POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE START OF LABOR DAY WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...FAIR AND HOT AFTERNOONS WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE OF NW NJ AND E PA.
LIGHT WINDS TEND TO BE NW DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SMALL CHC OF
CONVECTION E PA AND NNJ WED AFTN AND THU AFTN BUT MAY BE TOO
LITTLE TO MENTION IN OUR 330 PM FCST.  STILL UNDECIDED.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN HEAVY SOUTHWARD
MOVING CONVECTION BUT ONLY IN A PWAT OF 1.6 INCHES. SLOW MOVERS-
GULLY WASHERS WHERE THEY OCCUR BUT LITTLE PREDICTABILITY ATTM EXCEPT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST INLAND.  POTENTIALLY STILL
90F VCNTY KPHL SWWD AND WESTWARD ON FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS HIGHER,
AROUND 70F AND 1400J ML CAPE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS POOR FOR ANY
SVR. STRATUS FOG POTENTIAL AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING I-80
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEKEND...FAIR AND VERY WARM. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING
CONVECTION POCONOS TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND KRDG BUT AGAIN
PROBABLY TOO SMALL A POP TO MENTION.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE THESE NEXT 6 DAYS: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET,
ALONG WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND
KILG DUE TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE. A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE NEAR THE KABE TO KRDG AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM TO ARRIVE MAINLY NEAR THE KABE AND KRDG AREAS THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS.

MONDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR DUE TO FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR.
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE, THE CHANCE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
DRAFT: WILL UPDATE AT 330 PM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG/ST POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,
MAINLY NEAR KABE-KRDG. LIGHT WIND, TENDS BE NW EACH AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE.  IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE N OF I-80 LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS.  MVFR OR IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING IN NELY FLOW NEAR AND N OF I-80 WITH POSSIBLE IFR
VSBY IN FOG AT NIGHT.

OVERALL LONG TERM AVIATION FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC WHICH WILL KEEP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.
AN INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING AND A SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION, AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SEAS
OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE ACROSS OUR
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
DRAFT: TO BE UPDATED AT 330 PM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...ATLC SEAS MAY INCREASE AS AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOP BUT
ATTM, BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL, 10-11 SECONDS, CONTINUES TO
ROLL IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN TRICKY CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITHIN THE SURF ZONE
ESPECIALLY DURING TIDE CHANGES. AS A RESULT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

THE OUTLOOK IS FOR GENERALLY LOW ENHANCED CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH
A SLIGHTLY SUBSIDING 1-2 FOOT 10 SECOND SE SWELL. ITS POSSIBLE WE
WILL STILL NEED TO CARRY A MDT RISK ON MONDAY BASED ON THE VERY
SLOW TO SUBSIDE SWELL OF TODAY-SUNDAY.

NEXT FRIDAY ONWARD MAY SEE THE RISK INCREASE,  POSSIBLY TO MODERATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS WESTWARD SWEEPING SWELLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS SECTION WILL PROBABLY DISCARD LATER TONIGHT.

AUGUST: KPHL (POR 1872) AND KACY (POR 1874), BARRING ANY MORE RAIN
THIS MONTH, WILL BE 10TH DRIEST ON RECORD WITH 0.98 AND 1.25"
RESPECTIVELY. THE KILG 1.54 INCHES IS 13TH DRIEST ON RECORD
PROVIDED NO MORE RAIN FALLS BEFORE 1 AM TUESDAY.

LISTING THE SEASONS 90F OR WARMER DAYS AS INFO FOR YOU TO ADD ONTO
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

KPHL 28, MEAN 21. IF WE ADD 5 MORE DAYS 90F BETWEEN NOW AND SEPT
9 (TOTAL PROJECTED AT LEAST 33) AND KPHL WILL HAVE THE 18TH
HIGHEST SEASONAL TOTAL OF 90 OR HIGHER. POR TO 1872

KABE 12  POR MEAN 17
KACY 16  POR MEAN 10
KILG 11  POR MEAN 20

SAMPLING OF OTHER LOCATION TOTALS FOR 2015 ARE BELOW.
KPNE 30
KVAY 15
KRDG 17
KTTN 20
KGED 18
KFWN 6

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301851
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
251 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. AN OFFSHORE
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND AS IT
DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS
TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE SOME
SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ARE ONGOING NEAR OR IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES. THE OVERALL LIFT, SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO
KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE CORES FROM GETTING TO ROBUST. THE INITIATION
EARLY ON APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN BY TERRAIN IN NORTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE
MAIN CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE FLOW
BELOW ABOUT 10000 FEET IS 15 KNOTS OR LESS, THEREFORE THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
TEND TO WEAKEN WITH AN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN EXTENT. A FEW LOCALES
WILL GET SOME NEEDED RAIN IN THE FORM OF DOWNPOURS.

WE THEREFORE KEPT LOW POPS POPS GOING FOR A TIME THROUGH EARLY TO
MID EVENING, ALTHOUGH INCREASED THEM A BIT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ZONES INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OUR WEST.
SOME GUIDANCE WANTS TO HANG ONTO SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT,
HOWEVER THAT MAY BE OVERDONE. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO A NORTHERN JET STREAK PULLING NORTHWARD MOISTURE
FROM AN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST.

IT WILL BE A WARMER NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE DEW POINTS
TEND TO HANG NEAR THE MUGGY LEVEL. SOME FASTER COOLING THIS EVENING
THOUGH SHOULD OCCUR MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH A SEA BREEZE, WHICH
WILL WEAKEN. AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MOS BLEND THEN
MADE SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOME ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON MONDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE REACHES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. THIS PROVIDES SOME CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, WHILE
AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEARBY. A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT OR TROUGH LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, AND
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL DOES NOT HAVE A STRONG SIGNAL
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, AND SINCE THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW WE
OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION ATTM. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS ARE AROUND TO START THE DAY AS SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW
SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AROUND DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE, A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE
AROUND WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. A RATHER
WARM TO HOT AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ANY NOTABLE COOLING ALOFT IS MOSTLY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. AS A RESULT,
WE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WARMER GFS MOS FOR MOST PLACES REGARDING
HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRAFT: TO BE UPDATED AT 330 PM.

500 MB:  A STRONG WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE
EAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY A MINOR WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
DIVES SEWD TOWARD THE MARITIMES (55N/55W). THAT PERMITS A LITTLE
MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALOFT AND SO AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY SLIPS
SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 29TH WAS AVERAGING NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL. KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES
BELOW NORMAL. KTTN KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING ~1 TO ~2F ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL WARM THESE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH.

CALENDAR DAY DEPARTURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES N AND NW
OF KPHL. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD STILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES OR
MORE ABOVE NORMAL.  HOW MUCH COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY AND BEYOND IS
DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW.  IT APPEARS THE GREATEST
IMPACT OF COOLING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE
COASTS.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 12Z/30 GFS MOS WAS THE
PRIMARY GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT, 12Z/30 MEX MOS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THE 1521Z/30 WPC GRIDDED
ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

HAZARDS...

A HEAT WAVE WILL BE IN PROGRESS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE I-95
CORRIDOR EASTWARD TO NEAR THE COASTS, ITS DURATION SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 4 DAYS WHETHER OR NOT IT BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON OR MONDAY.
THE QUESTION, DOES IT BREAK ANYTIME FRIDAY-SUNDAY OR JUST GO ON
AND ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS POSSIBLE THE I-95 CORRIDOR
COULD SEE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE BEYOND 4 DAYS. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THIS HEAT WAVE SO FAR ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

THUNDERSTORM DRENCHING RAINS? NEAR THE COOL FRONT FRIDAY BUT OVERALL
AS PER WPC, THE DRY SPELL IS GOING TO LAST QUITE AWHILE, POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE START OF LABOR DAY WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...FAIR AND HOT AFTERNOONS WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE OF NW NJ AND E PA.
LIGHT WINDS TEND TO BE NW DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SMALL CHC OF
CONVECTION E PA AND NNJ WED AFTN AND THU AFTN BUT MAY BE TOO
LITTLE TO MENTION IN OUR 330 PM FCST.  STILL UNDECIDED.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN HEAVY SOUTHWARD
MOVING CONVECTION BUT ONLY IN A PWAT OF 1.6 INCHES. SLOW MOVERS-
GULLY WASHERS WHERE THEY OCCUR BUT LITTLE PREDICTABILITY ATTM EXCEPT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST INLAND.  POTENTIALLY STILL
90F VCNTY KPHL SWWD AND WESTWARD ON FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS HIGHER,
AROUND 70F AND 1400J ML CAPE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS POOR FOR ANY
SVR. STRATUS FOG POTENTIAL AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING I-80
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEKEND...FAIR AND VERY WARM. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING
CONVECTION POCONOS TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND KRDG BUT AGAIN
PROBABLY TOO SMALL A POP TO MENTION.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE THESE NEXT 6 DAYS: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET,
ALONG WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND
KILG DUE TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE. A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE NEAR THE KABE TO KRDG AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM TO ARRIVE MAINLY NEAR THE KABE AND KRDG AREAS THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS.

MONDAY...LOCALIZED MVFR DUE TO FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR.
WHILE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE, THE CHANCE APPEARS TO BE
RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
DRAFT: WILL UPDATE AT 330 PM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG/ST POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,
MAINLY NEAR KABE-KRDG. LIGHT WIND, TENDS BE NW EACH AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE.  IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE N OF I-80 LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS.  MVFR OR IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING IN NELY FLOW NEAR AND N OF I-80 WITH POSSIBLE IFR
VSBY IN FOG AT NIGHT.

OVERALL LONG TERM AVIATION FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC WHICH WILL KEEP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA.
AN INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO MIXING AND A SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION, AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE SEAS
OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE ACROSS OUR
WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
DRAFT: TO BE UPDATED AT 330 PM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...ATLC SEAS MAY INCREASE AS AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOP BUT
ATTM, BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL, 10-11 SECONDS, CONTINUES TO
ROLL IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL RESULT IN TRICKY CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITHIN THE SURF ZONE
ESPECIALLY DURING TIDE CHANGES. AS A RESULT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

THE OUTLOOK IS FOR GENERALLY LOW ENHANCED CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH
A SLIGHTLY SUBSIDING 1-2 FOOT 10 SECOND SE SWELL. ITS POSSIBLE WE
WILL STILL NEED TO CARRY A MDT RISK ON MONDAY BASED ON THE VERY
SLOW TO SUBSIDE SWELL OF TODAY-SUNDAY.

NEXT FRIDAY ONWARD MAY SEE THE RISK INCREASE,  POSSIBLY TO MODERATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS WESTWARD SWEEPING SWELLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS SECTION WILL PROBABLY DISCARD LATER TONIGHT.

AUGUST: KPHL (POR 1872) AND KACY (POR 1874), BARRING ANY MORE RAIN
THIS MONTH, WILL BE 10TH DRIEST ON RECORD WITH 0.98 AND 1.25"
RESPECTIVELY. THE KILG 1.54 INCHES IS 13TH DRIEST ON RECORD
PROVIDED NO MORE RAIN FALLS BEFORE 1 AM TUESDAY.

LISTING THE SEASONS 90F OR WARMER DAYS AS INFO FOR YOU TO ADD ONTO
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

KPHL 28, MEAN 21. IF WE ADD 5 MORE DAYS 90F BETWEEN NOW AND SEPT
9 (TOTAL PROJECTED AT LEAST 33) AND KPHL WILL HAVE THE 18TH
HIGHEST SEASONAL TOTAL OF 90 OR HIGHER. POR TO 1872

KABE 12  POR MEAN 17
KACY 16  POR MEAN 10
KILG 11  POR MEAN 20

SAMPLING OF OTHER LOCATION TOTALS FOR 2015 ARE BELOW.
KPNE 30
KVAY 15
KRDG 17
KTTN 20
KGED 18
KFWN 6

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 301723
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
123 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. AN OFFSHORE
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY, AND
AS IT DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE IS TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME MOISTURE ON THE
INCREASE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY, WITH
THIS PROBABLY BEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MOSTLY SHOW A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WHICH TENDS TO KEEP
UPDRAFTS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. THE BULK OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST DURING PEAK HEATING
WITH THE ACTUAL SHORT WAVE AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL JET. HOWEVER, TERRAIN INFLUENCES ALONG WITH WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE COULD BE ENOUGH AND THEREFORE WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC POP
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS WAS DELAYED A BIT THOUGH GIVEN
SLOWER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM MARYLAND AND DELAWARE.

IT WILL BE RATHER WARM TO HOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER DEW POINTS MAY LOWER A LITTLE BIT BY LATE DAY IN SOME AREAS
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT TIGHT, THEREFORE LIGHT
ENOUGH FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SEA BREEZE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO ASSIST. NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
ANY ISOLD SHWRS OR TSTMS WILL COME TO AN END AND THEN
EXPECT JUST A PCLDY SKY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEW PTS, AS THE
HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE AS WE CLOSE OUT AUGUST AND
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRAFT: TO BE UPDATED AT 330 PM.

500 MB:  A STRONG WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE
EAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY A MINOR WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
DIVES SEWD TOWARD THE MARITIMES (55N/55W). THAT PERMITS A LITTLE
MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALOFT AND SO AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY SLIPS
SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 29TH WAS AVERAGING NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL. KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES
BELOW NORMAL. KTTN KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING ~1 TO ~2F ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL WARM THESE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH.

CALENDAR DAY DEPARTURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES N AND NW
OF KPHL. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD STILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES OR
MORE ABOVE NORMAL.  HOW MUCH COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY AND BEYOND IS
DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW.  IT APPEARS THE GREATEST
IMPACT OF COOLING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE
COASTS.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 12Z/30 GFS MOS WAS THE
PRIMARY GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT, 12Z/30 MEX MOS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THE 1521Z/30 WPC GRIDDED
ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

HAZARDS...

A HEAT WAVE WILL BE IN PROGRESS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE I-95
CORRIDOR EASTWARD TO NEAR THE COASTS, ITS DURATION SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 4 DAYS WHETHER OR NOT IT BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON OR MONDAY.
THE QUESTION, DOES IT BREAK ANYTIME FRIDAY-SUNDAY OR JUST GO ON
AND ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS POSSIBLE THE I-95 CORRIDOR
COULD SEE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE BEYOND 4 DAYS. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THIS HEAT WAVE SO FAR ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

THUNDERSTORM DRENCHING RAINS? NEAR THE COOL FRONT FRIDAY BUT OVERALL
AS PER WPC, THE DRY SPELL IS GOING TO LAST QUITE AWHILE, POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE START OF LABOR DAY WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...FAIR AND HOT AFTERNOONS WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE OF NW NJ AND E PA.
LIGHT WINDS TEND TO BE NW DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SMALL CHC OF
CONVECTION E PA AND NNJ WED AFTN AND THU AFTN BUT MAY BE TOO
LITTLE TO MENTION IN OUR 330 PM FCST.  STILL UNDECIDED.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN HEAVY SOUTHWARD
MOVING CONVECTION BUT ONLY IN A PWAT OF 1.6 INCHES. SLOW MOVERS-
GULLY WASHERS WHERE THEY OCCUR BUT LITTLE PREDICTABILITY ATTM EXCEPT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST INLAND.  POTENTIALLY STILL
90F VCNTY KPHL SWWD AND WESTWARD ON FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS HIGHER,
AROUND 70F AND 1400J ML CAPE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS POOR FOR ANY
SVR. STRATUS FOG POTENTIAL AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING I-80
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEKEND...FAIR AND VERY WARM. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING
CONVECTION POCONOS TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND KRDG BUT AGAIN
PROBABLY TOO SMALL A POP TO MENTION.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE THESE NEXT 6 DAYS: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&


.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING AROUND 5000 FEET,
ALONG WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP
TO 10 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND PERHAPS
KILG DUE TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
MAY APPROACH THE KABE TO KRDG AREAS TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM TO ARRIVE MAINLY NEAR THE KABE AND KRDG AREAS THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOW.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY
OF THE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
DRAFT: WILL UPDATE AT 330 PM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG/ST POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,
MAINLY NEAR KABE-KRDG. LIGHT WIND, TENDS BE NW EACH AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE.  IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE N OF I-80 LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS.  MVFR OR IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING IN NELY FLOW NEAR AND N OF I-80 WITH POSSIBLE IFR
VSBY IN FOG AT NIGHT.

OVERALL LONG TERM AVIATION FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS. SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. WIND WILL GENLY
BE SW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
DRAFT: TO BE UPDATED AT 330 PM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...ATLC SEAS MAY INCREASE AS AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOP BUT
ATTM, BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL, 10-11 SECONDS, CONTINUES TO
ROLL IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING SOME THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN TRICKY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITHIN THE SURF ZONE ESPECIALLY DURING TIDE
CHANGES. AS A RESULT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

THE OUTLOOK IS FOR GENERALLY LOW ENHANCED CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH
A SLIGHTLY SUBSIDING 1-2 FOOT 10 SECOND SE SWELL. ITS POSSIBLE WE
WILL STILL NEED TO CARRY A MDT RISK ON MONDAY BASED ON THE VERY
SLOW TO SUBSIDE SWELL OF TODAY-SUNDAY.

NEXT FRIDAY ONWARD MAY SEE THE RISK INCREASE,  POSSIBLY TO MODERATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS WESTWARD SWEEPING SWELLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS SECTION WILL PROBABLY DISCARD LATER TONIGHT.

AUGUST: KPHL (POR 1872) AND KACY (POR 1874), BARRING ANY MORE RAIN
THIS MONTH, WILL BE 10TH DRIEST ON RECORD WITH 0.98 AND 1.25"
RESPECTIVELY. THE KILG 1.54 INCHES IS 13TH DRIEST ON RECORD
PROVIDED NO MORE RAIN FALLS BEFORE 1 AM TUESDAY.

LISTING THE SEASONS 90F OR WARMER DAYS AS INFO FOR YOU TO ADD ONTO
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

KPHL 28, MEAN 21. IF WE ADD 5 MORE DAYS 90F BETWEEN NOW AND SEPT
9 (TOTAL PROJECTED AT LEAST 33) AND KPHL WILL HAVE THE 18TH
HIGHEST SEASONAL TOTAL OF 90 OR HIGHER. POR TO 1872

KABE 12  POR MEAN 17
KACY 16  POR MEAN 10
KILG 11  POR MEAN 20

SAMPLING OF OTHER LOCATION TOTALS FOR 2015 ARE BELOW.
KPNE 30
KVAY 15
KRDG 17
KTTN 20
KGED 18
KFWN 6

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON/DRAG 123P
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...DRAG 123P
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/JOHNSON 123P
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 123P
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE/DRAG 123P
CLIMATE...DRAG 123P




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301723
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
123 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTH THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. AN OFFSHORE
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY, AND
AS IT DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE IS TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME MOISTURE ON THE
INCREASE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY, WITH
THIS PROBABLY BEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MOSTLY SHOW A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WHICH TENDS TO KEEP
UPDRAFTS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. THE BULK OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST DURING PEAK HEATING
WITH THE ACTUAL SHORT WAVE AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL JET. HOWEVER, TERRAIN INFLUENCES ALONG WITH WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE COULD BE ENOUGH AND THEREFORE WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC POP
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS WAS DELAYED A BIT THOUGH GIVEN
SLOWER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM MARYLAND AND DELAWARE.

IT WILL BE RATHER WARM TO HOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER DEW POINTS MAY LOWER A LITTLE BIT BY LATE DAY IN SOME AREAS
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT TIGHT, THEREFORE LIGHT
ENOUGH FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SEA BREEZE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO ASSIST. NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
ANY ISOLD SHWRS OR TSTMS WILL COME TO AN END AND THEN
EXPECT JUST A PCLDY SKY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEW PTS, AS THE
HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE AS WE CLOSE OUT AUGUST AND
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRAFT: TO BE UPDATED AT 330 PM.

500 MB:  A STRONG WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE
EAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY A MINOR WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE
OVER OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE
DIVES SEWD TOWARD THE MARITIMES (55N/55W). THAT PERMITS A LITTLE
MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALOFT AND SO AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY SLIPS
SOUTHWARD.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 29TH WAS AVERAGING NEAR OR ABOVE
NORMAL. KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES
BELOW NORMAL. KTTN KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING ~1 TO ~2F ABOVE
NORMAL AND WILL WARM THESE LAST TWO DAYS OF THE MONTH.

CALENDAR DAY DEPARTURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE 6 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES N AND NW
OF KPHL. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD STILL AVERAGE 5 DEGREES OR
MORE ABOVE NORMAL.  HOW MUCH COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY AND BEYOND IS
DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF ONSHORE FLOW.  IT APPEARS THE GREATEST
IMPACT OF COOLING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE THE SOUTHERN NJ AND DE
COASTS.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, 12Z/30 GFS MOS WAS THE
PRIMARY GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT, 12Z/30 MEX MOS
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN THE 1521Z/30 WPC GRIDDED
ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

HAZARDS...

A HEAT WAVE WILL BE IN PROGRESS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE I-95
CORRIDOR EASTWARD TO NEAR THE COASTS, ITS DURATION SHOULD BE AT
LEAST 4 DAYS WHETHER OR NOT IT BEGINS THIS AFTERNOON OR MONDAY.
THE QUESTION, DOES IT BREAK ANYTIME FRIDAY-SUNDAY OR JUST GO ON
AND ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS POSSIBLE THE I-95 CORRIDOR
COULD SEE AN EXTENDED HEAT WAVE BEYOND 4 DAYS. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES
IN THIS HEAT WAVE SO FAR ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.

THUNDERSTORM DRENCHING RAINS? NEAR THE COOL FRONT FRIDAY BUT OVERALL
AS PER WPC, THE DRY SPELL IS GOING TO LAST QUITE AWHILE, POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE START OF LABOR DAY WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...FAIR AND HOT AFTERNOONS WITH PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE COUNTRYSIDE OF NW NJ AND E PA.
LIGHT WINDS TEND TO BE NW DURING EACH AFTERNOON. SMALL CHC OF
CONVECTION E PA AND NNJ WED AFTN AND THU AFTN BUT MAY BE TOO
LITTLE TO MENTION IN OUR 330 PM FCST.  STILL UNDECIDED.

THU NIGHT-FRIDAY...A SWD MOVING COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN HEAVY SOUTHWARD
MOVING CONVECTION BUT ONLY IN A PWAT OF 1.6 INCHES. SLOW MOVERS-
GULLY WASHERS WHERE THEY OCCUR BUT LITTLE PREDICTABILITY ATTM EXCEPT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST INLAND.  POTENTIALLY STILL
90F VCNTY KPHL SWWD AND WESTWARD ON FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS HIGHER,
AROUND 70F AND 1400J ML CAPE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS POOR FOR ANY
SVR. STRATUS FOG POTENTIAL AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING I-80
NORTHWARD.

NEXT WEEKEND...FAIR AND VERY WARM. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTN/EVENING
CONVECTION POCONOS TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND KRDG BUT AGAIN
PROBABLY TOO SMALL A POP TO MENTION.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE THESE NEXT 6 DAYS: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&


.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING AROUND 5000 FEET,
ALONG WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP
TO 10 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND PERHAPS
KILG DUE TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
MAY APPROACH THE KABE TO KRDG AREAS TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM TO ARRIVE MAINLY NEAR THE KABE AND KRDG AREAS THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOW.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY
OF THE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
DRAFT: WILL UPDATE AT 330 PM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG/ST POSSIBLE EACH MORNING,
MAINLY NEAR KABE-KRDG. LIGHT WIND, TENDS BE NW EACH AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATE.  IFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE N OF I-80 LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS.  MVFR OR IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING IN NELY FLOW NEAR AND N OF I-80 WITH POSSIBLE IFR
VSBY IN FOG AT NIGHT.

OVERALL LONG TERM AVIATION FCST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS. SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. WIND WILL GENLY
BE SW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
DRAFT: TO BE UPDATED AT 330 PM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

FRIDAY...ATLC SEAS MAY INCREASE AS AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOP BUT
ATTM, BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL, 10-11 SECONDS, CONTINUES TO
ROLL IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING SOME THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN TRICKY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITHIN THE SURF ZONE ESPECIALLY DURING TIDE
CHANGES. AS A RESULT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

THE OUTLOOK IS FOR GENERALLY LOW ENHANCED CONDITIONS THIS WEEK WITH
A SLIGHTLY SUBSIDING 1-2 FOOT 10 SECOND SE SWELL. ITS POSSIBLE WE
WILL STILL NEED TO CARRY A MDT RISK ON MONDAY BASED ON THE VERY
SLOW TO SUBSIDE SWELL OF TODAY-SUNDAY.

NEXT FRIDAY ONWARD MAY SEE THE RISK INCREASE,  POSSIBLY TO MODERATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR MONDAY DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE AND ITS WESTWARD SWEEPING SWELLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS SECTION WILL PROBABLY DISCARD LATER TONIGHT.

AUGUST: KPHL (POR 1872) AND KACY (POR 1874), BARRING ANY MORE RAIN
THIS MONTH, WILL BE 10TH DRIEST ON RECORD WITH 0.98 AND 1.25"
RESPECTIVELY. THE KILG 1.54 INCHES IS 13TH DRIEST ON RECORD
PROVIDED NO MORE RAIN FALLS BEFORE 1 AM TUESDAY.

LISTING THE SEASONS 90F OR WARMER DAYS AS INFO FOR YOU TO ADD ONTO
AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

KPHL 28, MEAN 21. IF WE ADD 5 MORE DAYS 90F BETWEEN NOW AND SEPT
9 (TOTAL PROJECTED AT LEAST 33) AND KPHL WILL HAVE THE 18TH
HIGHEST SEASONAL TOTAL OF 90 OR HIGHER. POR TO 1872

KABE 12  POR MEAN 17
KACY 16  POR MEAN 10
KILG 11  POR MEAN 20

SAMPLING OF OTHER LOCATION TOTALS FOR 2015 ARE BELOW.
KPNE 30
KVAY 15
KRDG 17
KTTN 20
KGED 18
KFWN 6

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON/DRAG 123P
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...DRAG 123P
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/JOHNSON 123P
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 123P
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE/DRAG 123P
CLIMATE...DRAG 123P





000
FXUS61 KPHI 301628
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1228 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SLIDE
INTO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. AN OFFSHORE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST MAY PROVIDE SOME COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY, AND
AS IT DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE IS TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME MOISTURE ON THE
INCREASE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY, WITH
THIS PROBABLY BEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MOSTLY SHOW A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WHICH TENDS TO KEEP
UPDRAFTS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. THE BULK OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST DURING PEAK HEATING
WITH THE ACTUAL SHORT WAVE AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL JET. HOWEVER, TERRAIN INFLUENCES ALONG WITH WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE COULD BE ENOUGH AND THEREFORE WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC POP
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS WAS DELAYED A BIT THOUGH GIVEN
SLOWER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM MARYLAND AND DELAWARE.

IT WILL BE RATHER WARM TO HOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER DEW POINTS MAY LOWER A LITTLE BIT BY LATE DAY IN SOME AREAS
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT TIGHT, THEREFORE LIGHT
ENOUGH FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SEA BREEZE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO ASSIST. NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
ANY ISOLD SHWRS OR TSTMS WILL COME TO AN END AND THEN
EXPECT JUST A PCLDY SKY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEW PTS, AS THE
HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE AS WE CLOSE OUT AUGUST AND
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME SHIFTS IN TRACKS AND TIMING WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS, BUT
THE MAIN STORY REMAINS THE HIGH SLIDING OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION, BUT OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE VERY SLIM. SHOULD SEE A MODEST
WARMING TREND FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
OVERHEAD, THUS LEADING TO INCREASING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES FOR
THE REGION. EVEN WITH THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE THOUGH, HIGHS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW RECORDS, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD STAY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

THURSDAY...A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD, SPECIFICALLY
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME MODELS ARE NOW
STALLING THIS FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION, OR SHOWING THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALMOST DISAPPEAR COMPLETELY BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR REGION. FOR NOW THOUGH, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION EVEN WITHOUT THE FRONT, AND STILL THINK THERE
IS A CHANCE THE FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA GIVEN THAT THE MODELS
TEND TO UNDERESTIMATE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONTS WILL PROPAGATE IN THE
TRANSITION SEASONS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STAYED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THERE ARE SOME LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LONG RANGE
MODELS IN THIS PERIOD. THE GFS SHOWS STEADY ON SHORE FLOW AS A
SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF SHOWS
A VERTICALLY STACKED, AND NEARLY STATIONARY, LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
EITHER SOLUTION THOUGH DOES LOOK TO BRING A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING AROUND 5000 FEET,
ALONG WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP
TO 10 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND PERHAPS
KILG DUE TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
MAY APPROACH THE KABE TO KRDG AREAS TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM TO ARRIVE MAINLY NEAR THE KABE AND KRDG AREAS THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOW.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY
OF THE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS. SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. WIND WILL GENLY
BE SW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL, 10-11 SECONDS, CONTINUES TO
ROLL IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING SOME THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN TRICKY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITHIN THE SURF ZONE ESPECIALLY DURING TIDE
CHANGES. AS A RESULT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301628
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1228 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SLIDE
INTO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. AN OFFSHORE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST MAY PROVIDE SOME COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY, AND
AS IT DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE IS TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME MOISTURE ON THE
INCREASE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY, WITH
THIS PROBABLY BEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MOSTLY SHOW A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WHICH TENDS TO KEEP
UPDRAFTS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. THE BULK OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST DURING PEAK HEATING
WITH THE ACTUAL SHORT WAVE AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-
LEVEL JET. HOWEVER, TERRAIN INFLUENCES ALONG WITH WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE COULD BE ENOUGH AND THEREFORE WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC POP
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. THIS WAS DELAYED A BIT THOUGH GIVEN
SLOWER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM MARYLAND AND DELAWARE.

IT WILL BE RATHER WARM TO HOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER DEW POINTS MAY LOWER A LITTLE BIT BY LATE DAY IN SOME AREAS
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT TIGHT, THEREFORE LIGHT
ENOUGH FLOW WILL RESULT IN A SEA BREEZE ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO ASSIST. NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
ANY ISOLD SHWRS OR TSTMS WILL COME TO AN END AND THEN
EXPECT JUST A PCLDY SKY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEW PTS, AS THE
HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE AS WE CLOSE OUT AUGUST AND
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME SHIFTS IN TRACKS AND TIMING WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS, BUT
THE MAIN STORY REMAINS THE HIGH SLIDING OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION, BUT OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE VERY SLIM. SHOULD SEE A MODEST
WARMING TREND FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
OVERHEAD, THUS LEADING TO INCREASING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES FOR
THE REGION. EVEN WITH THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE THOUGH, HIGHS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW RECORDS, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD STAY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

THURSDAY...A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD, SPECIFICALLY
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME MODELS ARE NOW
STALLING THIS FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION, OR SHOWING THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALMOST DISAPPEAR COMPLETELY BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR REGION. FOR NOW THOUGH, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION EVEN WITHOUT THE FRONT, AND STILL THINK THERE
IS A CHANCE THE FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA GIVEN THAT THE MODELS
TEND TO UNDERESTIMATE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONTS WILL PROPAGATE IN THE
TRANSITION SEASONS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STAYED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THERE ARE SOME LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LONG RANGE
MODELS IN THIS PERIOD. THE GFS SHOWS STEADY ON SHORE FLOW AS A
SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF SHOWS
A VERTICALLY STACKED, AND NEARLY STATIONARY, LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
EITHER SOLUTION THOUGH DOES LOOK TO BRING A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING AROUND 5000 FEET,
ALONG WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP
TO 10 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND PERHAPS
KILG DUE TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
MAY APPROACH THE KABE TO KRDG AREAS TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM TO ARRIVE MAINLY NEAR THE KABE AND KRDG AREAS THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOW.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY
OF THE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS. SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE. WIND WILL GENLY
BE SW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL, 10-11 SECONDS, CONTINUES TO
ROLL IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING SOME THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN TRICKY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITHIN THE SURF ZONE ESPECIALLY DURING TIDE
CHANGES. AS A RESULT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG THE NEW JERSEY
SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 301312
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
912 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SLIDE
INTO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. AN OFFSHORE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST MAY PROVIDE SOME COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY, AND
AS IT DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE IS TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME MOISTURE ON THE
INCREASE THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS CURRENTLY WITH IT TO OUR WEST. THERE
IS SOME INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY, WITH THIS PROBABLY BEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS MOSTLY SHOW A
SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WHICH TENDS TO KEEP UPDRAFTS ON THE WEAKER SIDE.
THE BULK OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO
BE TO OUR WEST DURING PEAK HEATING WITH THE ACTUAL SHORT WAVE AND
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER, TERRAIN
INFLUENCES AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH COULD COME INTO PLAY AND
THEREFORE WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC POP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. SOME INCREASE IN THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT WAVE.

IT WILL BE RATHER WARM TO HOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER DEW POINTS MAY LOWER A LITTLE BIT THIS AFTERNOON IN SOME
AREAS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT TIGHT, THEREFORE LIGHT
ENOUGH FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA BREEZE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO ASSIST. NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
ANY ISOLD SHWRS OR TSTMS WILL COME TO AN END AND THEN
EXPECT JUST A PCLDY SKY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEW PTS, AS THE
HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE AS WE CLOSE OUT AUGUST AND
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME SHIFTS IN TRACKS AND TIMING WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS, BUT
THE MAIN STORY REMAINS THE HIGH SLIDING OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION, BUT OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE VERY SLIM. SHOULD SEE A MODEST
WARMING TREND FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
OVERHEAD, THUS LEADING TO INCREASING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES FOR
THE REGION. EVEN WITH THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE THOUGH, HIGHS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW RECORDS, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD STAY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

THURSDAY...A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD, SPECIFICALLY
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME MODELS ARE NOW
STALLING THIS FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION, OR SHOWING THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALMOST DISAPPEAR COMPLETELY BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR REGION. FOR NOW THOUGH, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION EVEN WITHOUT THE FRONT, AND STILL THINK THERE
IS A CHANCE THE FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA GIVEN THAT THE MODELS
TEND TO UNDERESTIMATE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONTS WILL PROPAGATE IN THE
TRANSITION SEASONS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STAYED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THERE ARE SOME LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LONG RANGE
MODELS IN THIS PERIOD. THE GFS SHOWS STEADY ON SHORE FLOW AS A
SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF SHOWS
A VERTICALLY STACKED, AND NEARLY STATIONARY, LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
EITHER SOLUTION THOUGH DOES LOOK TO BRING A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING AROUND 5000 FEET.
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND PERHAPS KILG DUE TO A SEA/BAY
BREEZE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM APPROACH THE
KABE TO KRDG AREAS TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM TO ARRIVE NEAR THE KABE AND KRDG AREAS THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-
10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE.  WIND WILL GENLY BE
SW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL, 10-11 SECONDS, CONTINUES TO
ROLL IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING SOME THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN TRICKY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITHIN THE SURF ZONE ESPECIALLY DURING TIDE
CHANGES. AS A RESULT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND THE DELAWARE
BEACHES ARE NOW ALSO INCLUDED IN THIS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301312
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
912 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT, OTHERWISE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SLIDE
INTO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. AN OFFSHORE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST MAY PROVIDE SOME COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ARRIVE INTO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY, AND
AS IT DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD FRONT AT THE
SURFACE IS TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME MOISTURE ON THE
INCREASE THERE ARE SOME SHOWERS CURRENTLY WITH IT TO OUR WEST. THERE
IS SOME INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY, WITH THIS PROBABLY BEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES. HOWEVER, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS MOSTLY SHOW A
SKINNY CAPE PROFILE WHICH TENDS TO KEEP UPDRAFTS ON THE WEAKER SIDE.
THE BULK OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO
BE TO OUR WEST DURING PEAK HEATING WITH THE ACTUAL SHORT WAVE AND
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET. HOWEVER, TERRAIN
INFLUENCES AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH COULD COME INTO PLAY AND
THEREFORE WE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC POP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. SOME INCREASE IN THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES IN ADVANCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORT WAVE.

IT WILL BE RATHER WARM TO HOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER DEW POINTS MAY LOWER A LITTLE BIT THIS AFTERNOON IN SOME
AREAS DUE TO SIGNIFICANT HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT TIGHT, THEREFORE LIGHT
ENOUGH FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA BREEZE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO ASSIST. NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
ANY ISOLD SHWRS OR TSTMS WILL COME TO AN END AND THEN
EXPECT JUST A PCLDY SKY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEW PTS, AS THE
HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE AS WE CLOSE OUT AUGUST AND
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME SHIFTS IN TRACKS AND TIMING WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS, BUT
THE MAIN STORY REMAINS THE HIGH SLIDING OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION, BUT OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE VERY SLIM. SHOULD SEE A MODEST
WARMING TREND FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
OVERHEAD, THUS LEADING TO INCREASING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES FOR
THE REGION. EVEN WITH THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE THOUGH, HIGHS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW RECORDS, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD STAY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

THURSDAY...A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD, SPECIFICALLY
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME MODELS ARE NOW
STALLING THIS FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION, OR SHOWING THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALMOST DISAPPEAR COMPLETELY BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR REGION. FOR NOW THOUGH, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION EVEN WITHOUT THE FRONT, AND STILL THINK THERE
IS A CHANCE THE FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA GIVEN THAT THE MODELS
TEND TO UNDERESTIMATE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONTS WILL PROPAGATE IN THE
TRANSITION SEASONS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STAYED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THERE ARE SOME LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LONG RANGE
MODELS IN THIS PERIOD. THE GFS SHOWS STEADY ON SHORE FLOW AS A
SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF SHOWS
A VERTICALLY STACKED, AND NEARLY STATIONARY, LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
EITHER SOLUTION THOUGH DOES LOOK TO BRING A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING AROUND 5000 FEET.
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD
TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND PERHAPS KILG DUE TO A SEA/BAY
BREEZE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM APPROACH THE
KABE TO KRDG AREAS TOWARD EVENING.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD ALLOW A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM TO ARRIVE NEAR THE KABE AND KRDG AREAS THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-
10 KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE.  WIND WILL GENLY BE
SW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST SWELL, 10-11 SECONDS, CONTINUES TO
ROLL IN ALONG THE COAST. THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS TURNING MORE
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING SOME THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN TRICKY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WITHIN THE SURF ZONE ESPECIALLY DURING TIDE
CHANGES. AS A RESULT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND THE DELAWARE
BEACHES ARE NOW ALSO INCLUDED IN THIS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 300721
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
321 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
LEADING TO A MOSTLY HOT AND DRY PATTERN. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SLIDE
INTO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. A LOW OFF SHORE AND A HIGH TO OUR
NORTHEAST MAY PROVIDE SOME COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY
MOVE EWD.  AS IT DOES, BOTH CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE.
A S/WV WILL APPROACH FROM THE W DURG THE AFTN HOURS AND THIS FEATURE
COULD TRIGGER A SHWR OR TSTM, MAINLY FOR NRN AND WRN AREAS, SO WILL
CONTINUE VERY LOW POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS.  HOWEVER, THE OVERALL AMS
IS VERY DRY, SO IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING IF NOTHING HAPPENED EITHER.
TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND DE PTS WILL CREEP UP AS
WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
ANY ISOLD SHWRS OR TSTMS WILL COME TO AN END AND THEN
EXPECT JUST A PCLDY SKY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEW PTS, AS THE
HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE AS WE CLOSE OUT AUGUST AND
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME SHIFTS IN TRACKS AND TIMING WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS, BUT
THE MAIN STORY REMAINS THE HIGH SLIDING OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION, BUT OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE VERY SLIM. SHOULD SEE A MODEST
WARMING TREND FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
OVERHEAD, THUS LEADING TO INCREASING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES FOR
THE REGION. EVEN WITH THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE THOUGH, HIGHS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW RECORDS, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD STAY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

THURSDAY...A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD, SPECIFICALLY
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME MODELS ARE NOW
STALLING THIS FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION, OR SHOWING THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALMOST DISAPPEAR COMPLETELY BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR REGION. FOR NOW THOUGH, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION EVEN WITHOUT THE FRONT, AND STILL THINK THERE
IS A CHANCE THE FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA GIVEN THAT THE MODELS
TEND TO UNDERESTIMATE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONTS WILL PROPAGATE IN THE
TRANSITION SEASONS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STAYED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THERE ARE SOME LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LONG RANGE
MODELS IN THIS PERIOD. THE GFS SHOWS STEADY ON SHORE FLOW AS A
SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF SHOWS
A VERTICALLY STACKED, AND NEARLY STATIONARY, LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
EITHER SOLUTION THOUGH DOES LOOK TO BRING A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS WILL BE THE RULE THRU THE TAF PD, WITH HI PRES
IN CONTROL.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THRU DURG THE LATE AFTN
HOURS AND COULD TOUCH OFF A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA MAINLY FOR KRDG OR
KABE.  HOWEVER, OVERALL CHCS ARE VERY LOW AND, THEREFORE, WILL NOT
BE MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.  OTHERWISE, EXPECT A SW WIND TO DEVELOP Y
LATE MRNG GENLY 10 KTS OR LESS.  WIND WILL THEN DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE.  WIND WILL GENLY BE
SW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN
TODAY, AS WE WILL HAVE 24-4 FT SEAS, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH
AS 20 KT AND SE SWELL.  WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY
FULL MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 10 SECONDS.  IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300721
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
321 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
LEADING TO A MOSTLY HOT AND DRY PATTERN. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY SLIDE
INTO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. A LOW OFF SHORE AND A HIGH TO OUR
NORTHEAST MAY PROVIDE SOME COOLER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SLOWLY
MOVE EWD.  AS IT DOES, BOTH CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE.
A S/WV WILL APPROACH FROM THE W DURG THE AFTN HOURS AND THIS FEATURE
COULD TRIGGER A SHWR OR TSTM, MAINLY FOR NRN AND WRN AREAS, SO WILL
CONTINUE VERY LOW POPS IN THESE LOCATIONS.  HOWEVER, THE OVERALL AMS
IS VERY DRY, SO IT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISING IF NOTHING HAPPENED EITHER.
TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND DE PTS WILL CREEP UP AS
WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
ANY ISOLD SHWRS OR TSTMS WILL COME TO AN END AND THEN
EXPECT JUST A PCLDY SKY WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING DEW PTS, AS THE
HIGH REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE AS WE CLOSE OUT AUGUST AND
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME SHIFTS IN TRACKS AND TIMING WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS, BUT
THE MAIN STORY REMAINS THE HIGH SLIDING OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WORK WEEK.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION, BUT OTHERWISE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE VERY SLIM. SHOULD SEE A MODEST
WARMING TREND FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
OVERHEAD, THUS LEADING TO INCREASING 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES FOR
THE REGION. EVEN WITH THIS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE THOUGH, HIGHS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW RECORDS, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD STAY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

THURSDAY...A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD, SPECIFICALLY
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. SOME MODELS ARE NOW
STALLING THIS FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE REGION, OR SHOWING THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ALMOST DISAPPEAR COMPLETELY BY THE TIME IT
REACHES OUR REGION. FOR NOW THOUGH, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION EVEN WITHOUT THE FRONT, AND STILL THINK THERE
IS A CHANCE THE FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA GIVEN THAT THE MODELS
TEND TO UNDERESTIMATE HOW FAR SOUTH FRONTS WILL PROPAGATE IN THE
TRANSITION SEASONS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STAYED RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THERE ARE SOME LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LONG RANGE
MODELS IN THIS PERIOD. THE GFS SHOWS STEADY ON SHORE FLOW AS A
SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPS TO OUR NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF SHOWS
A VERTICALLY STACKED, AND NEARLY STATIONARY, LOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
EITHER SOLUTION THOUGH DOES LOOK TO BRING A COOLING TREND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS WILL BE THE RULE THRU THE TAF PD, WITH HI PRES
IN CONTROL.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THRU DURG THE LATE AFTN
HOURS AND COULD TOUCH OFF A STRAY SHRA OR TSRA MAINLY FOR KRDG OR
KABE.  HOWEVER, OVERALL CHCS ARE VERY LOW AND, THEREFORE, WILL NOT
BE MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.  OTHERWISE, EXPECT A SW WIND TO DEVELOP Y
LATE MRNG GENLY 10 KTS OR LESS.  WIND WILL THEN DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE.  WIND WILL GENLY BE
SW IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK WILL BE MAINTAINED IN NJ ONCE AGAIN
TODAY, AS WE WILL HAVE 24-4 FT SEAS, SW WIND THAT COULD GUST AS HIGH
AS 20 KT AND SE SWELL.  WE WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE NEARLY
FULL MOON AS WELL AND HAVE LONG PERIODS...AROUND 10 SECONDS.  IN
DELAWARE, THE RISK REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 300130
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THURSDAY WITH A HEAT WAVE LIKELY. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTH INTO OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY WITH A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
DOMINANT OVER COASTAL EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...


HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE, AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME. MEANWHILE, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DOMINATED BY THE DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH, THEREFORE A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED.

MOSTLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE AROUND AT TIMES
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. SKY COVER
WAS RAISED SOME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, DEWPOINTS SHOULD EDGE
UP A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COOLING OCCURS AND THE MOISTURE
STARTS TO POOL CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO
GROUND FOG IN LOCALIZED SPOTS.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED MAINLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND
THESE ARE A LITTLE HIGHER OVERALL WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE DEW
POINTS WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE ARRIVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY, AND AS IT DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME MOISTURE
ON THE INCREASE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT TO OUR WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY CAN BE
MAINTAINED AS IT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES MAINLY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING, WITH THIS PROBABLY BETTER ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS MOSTLY SHOW A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE
WHICH TENDS TO KEEP UPDRAFTS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST
DURING PEAK HEATING, HOWEVER TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH COULD COME INTO PLAY AND THEREFORE WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC
POP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

IT WILL BE RATHER WARM TO HOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, HOWEVER DEW
POINTS MAY BE HIGHER IN THE MORNING DUE TO HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALLOWING FOR SOME DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT TIGHT, THEREFORE LIGHT
ENOUGH FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA BREEZE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN MOS BLEND THEN MADE
SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: A RIDGE OF WARM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA DEVELOPS
NORTHWESTWARD THIS WEEK WHILE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS LODGED
VICINITY OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 28TH AVERAGED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES BELOW NORMAL.
KTTN, KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING 1 TO ~2F ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR
DAY DEPARTURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL WARM THE MONTHLY AVERAGES
COMPARED TO NORMAL. AS IT STANDS FROM THE 12Z/29 MODEL GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 6 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY-
THURSDAY. THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY-
SATURDAY BEHIND A SOUTHWARD DRIFTING COLD FRONT AND THERE IS NO
CERTAINTY THAT THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY. IT COULD BE DELAYED
OR LESS EFFECTIVELY COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE OUTCOME IS IN PART DEPENDENT ON THE AMPLITUDE AND
LONGITUDE OF A TROUGH EAST OF THE MARITIMES LATE THIS COMING WEEK.

THE GREATEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY SHOULD RESIDE NEAR AND N OF I-78.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 12Z/29 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT - FAVORING THE WARMER OF THE
AVBL GUIDANCE SINCE THE 12Z NCEP AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS ARE RATHER
WARM AND 850 TEMPS 16-18C. THIS APPROACH WAS EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY EXCEPT THE 12Z/29 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WHICH WAS BLENDED WITH THE 1521Z WPC GUIDE. THE 1521Z/29
WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR
DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND WAS USED AS IS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD.

HAZARDS THROUGH DAY 7: OTHER THAN RIP CURRENT MODERATE RISK
TODAY-THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY AND THE END OF NEXT WEEK; ITS ABOUT
A PROBABLE HEAT WAVE AND HOW LONG. FOR NOW, THE MAX HEAT INDEX IS
FORECAST TO BE REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...DEWPOINTS STILL ON
THE LOWER SIDE OF WHAT THEY COULD BE. HEAT WAVE BEGINS SUNDAY OR
MONDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND PROBABLY EXTENDS THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. OUR MAX HEAT INDEX FORECAST RIGHT NOW IS IN THE
MID 90S.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...VARIABLE CIRRUS, ESPECIALLY KPHL SOUTH OTHERWISE
FAIR. LIGHT WIND. SMALL CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM NW OF I-95, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE APPEARING TO BE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN MONROE
AND SUSSEX COUNTIES OF NE PA AND NW NJ. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH AND BECOMING SUNNY NORTH (CI FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR FL).  HOT, ESPECIALLY KPHL NORTH.  WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY 20 MPH DURING THE
EVENING I-95 EASTWARD. SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON TSTM E PA OR
THE N 2/3RDS NJ AHEAD A WEAK WIND SHIFT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...SUNNY AND HOT.  LIGHT N TO NW WIND, GUSTS UNDER 15 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT. COULD BE A PERIOD OF THICK
CIRRUS. LIGHT SW WIND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND HOT. LIGHT NW WIND. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAX TEMPS DEPEND IN PART ON THE COLD FRONTAL
POSITION AND THE STRENGTH OF GEFS ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE WARMER THAN
NORMAL ATLANTIC WATERS. COULD STILL BE HOT IN THE INTERIOR? LOOKS
TO BE MORE HUMID WITH THE OCEAN INFLOW OFF THE SSTS IN THE 70S.
EVENTUALLY A CHANCE OF TSTMS? PROBABLY MOST FAVORED IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF E PA AND NW NJ BUT RATHER FAR IN THE FUTURE TO BE CONFIDENT.
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE (POSITION OF COLD FRONT).

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH REMAINING CUMULUS DISSIPATING IN THE
EVENING. SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST
CHANCE AT KRDG AND KMIV RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE. ANY SUSTAINED
SOUTHWESTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY... VFR, SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND. A BROKEN HIGH CLOUD DECK
AS WELL FROM KPHL TO THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS, PERHAPS A FEW LATE DAY WIND GUSTS UNDER 20 KNOTS. KILG AND
KACY ONCE AGAIN COULD SEE ANOTHER SEABREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE WINDS BEING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THAN IN
THE CURRENT 00Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR MAINLY CIRRUS.  LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH
COUNTRYSIDE FOG MONDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE
VCNTY KMPO/KABE DURING THE EVENING?

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15-20 KT
16Z THROUGH 00Z/1. SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSTMS KPHL NORTHWARD.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

MONDAY NIGHT... VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH COUNTRYSIDE FOG
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WIND TURNING NW-N LATE. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT N TO NW WIND...GUSTS
UNDER 15 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT SW WIND. ANOTHER
BATCH OF CIRRUS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W WIND BECOMING N OR NW. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR A
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, SOME INCREASE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING MOSTLY DUE TO A SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE NEARSHORE.
THIS MAY ALSO OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT- THURSDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND/OR MONDAY EVENING, OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 11 SECONDS/ EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES
INTO TONIGHT, WITH SEAS IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE. A FULL MOON
/HIGHER TIDE LEVELS/ AND A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR TRICKY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE SURF ZONE ESPECIALLY FOR NEW JERSEY. AS A
RESULT A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY COAST CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER A LOW RISK IS
MAINTAINED FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...APPEARS TO BE LOW ENHANCED WITH RESIDUAL IMPACT FROM TODAYS
3 FT 11 SECOND SE SWELL BUT THE SWELL SHOULD BE SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT
ON SUNDAY. STILL FULL MOON IMPACT SO LARGER THAN NORMAL TIDAL
EXCHANGE.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE A DAILY LOW RISK.
THE RISK MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY NEXT FRIDAY-SATURDAY DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AND SIZE-PERIOD OF THE SWELL.

CONCERN: ABOVE NORMAL SST`S (UPPER 70S) AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THIS LAST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER AND SWIMMERS-WADERS BEING TOO CASUAL
IN THE SURF ZONE SINCE THE RC RISK IS LOW. FOR GREATEST SAFETY...
SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS AND DURING THEIR COVERAGE
HOURS. SWIMMING AT JETTIES, PIERS, GROINS IS ILL ADVISED SINCE RIP
CURRENTS REPEATEDLY FORM THERE. SWIMMING AT NIGHT OR NOT IN SIGHT
OF LIFE GUARDS IS RISKY. WATER TROUBLE CAN QUICKLY TURN TO
RECOVERY INSTEAD OF RESCUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE HAVE LOOKED AT RECORDS FOR NEXT WEEK (NEAR 100F IN 1953) AND SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT A HEAT WAVE OCCURS NEXT WEEK,
NOT ENOUGH HEAT IS INDICATED TO CHALLENGE THE RECORDS. RECORD
HIGHS NEXT FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE LOWER BUT NOT SURE HOW
MUCH ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS, THEREFORE KEEPING IT COOLER THAN
RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 300130
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THURSDAY WITH A HEAT WAVE LIKELY. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTH INTO OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY WITH A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
DOMINANT OVER COASTAL EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...


HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE, AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME. MEANWHILE, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DOMINATED BY THE DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH, THEREFORE A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED.

MOSTLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE AROUND AT TIMES
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. SKY COVER
WAS RAISED SOME OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE TRENDS. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, DEWPOINTS SHOULD EDGE
UP A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COOLING OCCURS AND THE MOISTURE
STARTS TO POOL CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO
GROUND FOG IN LOCALIZED SPOTS.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED MAINLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND
THESE ARE A LITTLE HIGHER OVERALL WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE DEW
POINTS WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE ARRIVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY, AND AS IT DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME MOISTURE
ON THE INCREASE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT TO OUR WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY CAN BE
MAINTAINED AS IT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES MAINLY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING, WITH THIS PROBABLY BETTER ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS MOSTLY SHOW A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE
WHICH TENDS TO KEEP UPDRAFTS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST
DURING PEAK HEATING, HOWEVER TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH COULD COME INTO PLAY AND THEREFORE WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC
POP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

IT WILL BE RATHER WARM TO HOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, HOWEVER DEW
POINTS MAY BE HIGHER IN THE MORNING DUE TO HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALLOWING FOR SOME DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT TIGHT, THEREFORE LIGHT
ENOUGH FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA BREEZE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN MOS BLEND THEN MADE
SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: A RIDGE OF WARM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA DEVELOPS
NORTHWESTWARD THIS WEEK WHILE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS LODGED
VICINITY OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 28TH AVERAGED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES BELOW NORMAL.
KTTN, KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING 1 TO ~2F ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR
DAY DEPARTURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL WARM THE MONTHLY AVERAGES
COMPARED TO NORMAL. AS IT STANDS FROM THE 12Z/29 MODEL GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 6 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY-
THURSDAY. THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY-
SATURDAY BEHIND A SOUTHWARD DRIFTING COLD FRONT AND THERE IS NO
CERTAINTY THAT THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY. IT COULD BE DELAYED
OR LESS EFFECTIVELY COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE OUTCOME IS IN PART DEPENDENT ON THE AMPLITUDE AND
LONGITUDE OF A TROUGH EAST OF THE MARITIMES LATE THIS COMING WEEK.

THE GREATEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY SHOULD RESIDE NEAR AND N OF I-78.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 12Z/29 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT - FAVORING THE WARMER OF THE
AVBL GUIDANCE SINCE THE 12Z NCEP AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS ARE RATHER
WARM AND 850 TEMPS 16-18C. THIS APPROACH WAS EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY EXCEPT THE 12Z/29 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WHICH WAS BLENDED WITH THE 1521Z WPC GUIDE. THE 1521Z/29
WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR
DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND WAS USED AS IS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD.

HAZARDS THROUGH DAY 7: OTHER THAN RIP CURRENT MODERATE RISK
TODAY-THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY AND THE END OF NEXT WEEK; ITS ABOUT
A PROBABLE HEAT WAVE AND HOW LONG. FOR NOW, THE MAX HEAT INDEX IS
FORECAST TO BE REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...DEWPOINTS STILL ON
THE LOWER SIDE OF WHAT THEY COULD BE. HEAT WAVE BEGINS SUNDAY OR
MONDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND PROBABLY EXTENDS THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. OUR MAX HEAT INDEX FORECAST RIGHT NOW IS IN THE
MID 90S.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...VARIABLE CIRRUS, ESPECIALLY KPHL SOUTH OTHERWISE
FAIR. LIGHT WIND. SMALL CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM NW OF I-95, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE APPEARING TO BE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN MONROE
AND SUSSEX COUNTIES OF NE PA AND NW NJ. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH AND BECOMING SUNNY NORTH (CI FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR FL).  HOT, ESPECIALLY KPHL NORTH.  WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY 20 MPH DURING THE
EVENING I-95 EASTWARD. SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON TSTM E PA OR
THE N 2/3RDS NJ AHEAD A WEAK WIND SHIFT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...SUNNY AND HOT.  LIGHT N TO NW WIND, GUSTS UNDER 15 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT. COULD BE A PERIOD OF THICK
CIRRUS. LIGHT SW WIND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND HOT. LIGHT NW WIND. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAX TEMPS DEPEND IN PART ON THE COLD FRONTAL
POSITION AND THE STRENGTH OF GEFS ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE WARMER THAN
NORMAL ATLANTIC WATERS. COULD STILL BE HOT IN THE INTERIOR? LOOKS
TO BE MORE HUMID WITH THE OCEAN INFLOW OFF THE SSTS IN THE 70S.
EVENTUALLY A CHANCE OF TSTMS? PROBABLY MOST FAVORED IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF E PA AND NW NJ BUT RATHER FAR IN THE FUTURE TO BE CONFIDENT.
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE (POSITION OF COLD FRONT).

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH REMAINING CUMULUS DISSIPATING IN THE
EVENING. SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST
CHANCE AT KRDG AND KMIV RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE. ANY SUSTAINED
SOUTHWESTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY... VFR, SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND. A BROKEN HIGH CLOUD DECK
AS WELL FROM KPHL TO THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS, PERHAPS A FEW LATE DAY WIND GUSTS UNDER 20 KNOTS. KILG AND
KACY ONCE AGAIN COULD SEE ANOTHER SEABREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE WINDS BEING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THAN IN
THE CURRENT 00Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR MAINLY CIRRUS.  LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH
COUNTRYSIDE FOG MONDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE
VCNTY KMPO/KABE DURING THE EVENING?

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15-20 KT
16Z THROUGH 00Z/1. SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSTMS KPHL NORTHWARD.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

MONDAY NIGHT... VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH COUNTRYSIDE FOG
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WIND TURNING NW-N LATE. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT N TO NW WIND...GUSTS
UNDER 15 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT SW WIND. ANOTHER
BATCH OF CIRRUS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W WIND BECOMING N OR NW. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR A
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, SOME INCREASE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING MOSTLY DUE TO A SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE NEARSHORE.
THIS MAY ALSO OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT- THURSDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND/OR MONDAY EVENING, OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 11 SECONDS/ EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES
INTO TONIGHT, WITH SEAS IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE. A FULL MOON
/HIGHER TIDE LEVELS/ AND A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR TRICKY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE SURF ZONE ESPECIALLY FOR NEW JERSEY. AS A
RESULT A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY COAST CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER A LOW RISK IS
MAINTAINED FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...APPEARS TO BE LOW ENHANCED WITH RESIDUAL IMPACT FROM TODAYS
3 FT 11 SECOND SE SWELL BUT THE SWELL SHOULD BE SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT
ON SUNDAY. STILL FULL MOON IMPACT SO LARGER THAN NORMAL TIDAL
EXCHANGE.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE A DAILY LOW RISK.
THE RISK MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY NEXT FRIDAY-SATURDAY DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AND SIZE-PERIOD OF THE SWELL.

CONCERN: ABOVE NORMAL SST`S (UPPER 70S) AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THIS LAST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER AND SWIMMERS-WADERS BEING TOO CASUAL
IN THE SURF ZONE SINCE THE RC RISK IS LOW. FOR GREATEST SAFETY...
SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS AND DURING THEIR COVERAGE
HOURS. SWIMMING AT JETTIES, PIERS, GROINS IS ILL ADVISED SINCE RIP
CURRENTS REPEATEDLY FORM THERE. SWIMMING AT NIGHT OR NOT IN SIGHT
OF LIFE GUARDS IS RISKY. WATER TROUBLE CAN QUICKLY TURN TO
RECOVERY INSTEAD OF RESCUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE HAVE LOOKED AT RECORDS FOR NEXT WEEK (NEAR 100F IN 1953) AND SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT A HEAT WAVE OCCURS NEXT WEEK,
NOT ENOUGH HEAT IS INDICATED TO CHALLENGE THE RECORDS. RECORD
HIGHS NEXT FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE LOWER BUT NOT SURE HOW
MUCH ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS, THEREFORE KEEPING IT COOLER THAN
RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 292221
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
621 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THURSDAY WITH A HEAT WAVE LIKELY. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTH INTO OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY WITH A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
DOMINANT OVER COASTAL EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

ONLY A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE 6:30 PM UPDATE. A CHANGE WAS
TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE LOCATION OF THE SEA BREEZE COMING THROUGH
CENTRAL NJ WITH REGARDS TO WIND DIRECTION TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FROM OCEAN COUNTY TO CAPE MAY AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY AS WELL.
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WERE
MADE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE, AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME. MEANWHILE, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DOMINATED BY THE DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH, THEREFORE A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED.

MOSTLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE AROUND AT TIMES. THE
LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTED IN A SEA BREEZE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INLAND SOME BEFORE WASHING OUT EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS HELPED TO INCREASE THE SURFACE DEW POINTS SOME, ALTHOUGH
SOME LOWERING IN SPOTS HAD BEEN NOTED TODAY DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING AND SOME MIXING. THESE SHOULD EDGE UP A BIT THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS COOLING OCCURS AND THE MOISTURE STARTS TO POOL CLOSEST TO
THE SURFACE. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO GROUND FOG IN LOCALIZED
SPOTS.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED MAINLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND
THESE ARE A LITTLE HIGHER OVERALL WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE DEW
POINTS WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE ARRIVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY, AND AS IT DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME MOISTURE
ON THE INCREASE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT TO OUR WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY CAN BE
MAINTAINED AS IT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES MAINLY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING, WITH THIS PROBABLY BETTER ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS MOSTLY SHOW A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE
WHICH TENDS TO KEEP UPDRAFTS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST
DURING PEAK HEATING, HOWEVER TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH COULD COME INTO PLAY AND THEREFORE WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC
POP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

IT WILL BE RATHER WARM TO HOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, HOWEVER DEW
POINTS MAY BE HIGHER IN THE MORNING DUE TO HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALLOWING FOR SOME DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT TIGHT, THEREFORE LIGHT
ENOUGH FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA BREEZE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN MOS BLEND THEN MADE
SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: A RIDGE OF WARM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA DEVELOPS
NORTHWESTWARD THIS WEEK WHILE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS LODGED
VICINITY OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 28TH AVERAGED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES BELOW NORMAL.
KTTN, KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING 1 TO ~2F ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR
DAY DEPARTURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL WARM THE MONTHLY AVERAGES
COMPARED TO NORMAL. AS IT STANDS FROM THE 12Z/29 MODEL GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 6 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY-
THURSDAY. THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY-
SATURDAY BEHIND A SOUTHWARD DRIFTING COLD FRONT AND THERE IS NO
CERTAINTY THAT THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY. IT COULD BE DELAYED
OR LESS EFFECTIVELY COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE OUTCOME IS IN PART DEPENDENT ON THE AMPLITUDE AND
LONGITUDE OF A TROUGH EAST OF THE MARITIMES LATE THIS COMING WEEK.

THE GREATEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY SHOULD RESIDE NEAR AND N OF I-78.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 12Z/29 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT - FAVORING THE WARMER OF THE
AVBL GUIDANCE SINCE THE 12Z NCEP AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS ARE RATHER
WARM AND 850 TEMPS 16-18C. THIS APPROACH WAS EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY EXCEPT THE 12Z/29 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WHICH WAS BLENDED WITH THE 1521Z WPC GUIDE. THE 1521Z/29
WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR
DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND WAS USED AS IS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD.

HAZARDS THROUGH DAY 7: OTHER THAN RIP CURRENT MODERATE RISK
TODAY-THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY AND THE END OF NEXT WEEK; ITS ABOUT
A PROBABLE HEAT WAVE AND HOW LONG. FOR NOW, THE MAX HEAT INDEX IS
FORECAST TO BE REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...DEWPOINTS STILL ON
THE LOWER SIDE OF WHAT THEY COULD BE. HEAT WAVE BEGINS SUNDAY OR
MONDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND PROBABLY EXTENDS THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. OUR MAX HEAT INDEX FORECAST RIGHT NOW IS IN THE
MID 90S.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...VARIABLE CIRRUS, ESPECIALLY KPHL SOUTH OTHERWISE
FAIR. LIGHT WIND. SMALL CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM NW OF I-95, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE APPEARING TO BE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN MONROE
AND SUSSEX COUNTIES OF NE PA AND NW NJ. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH AND BECOMING SUNNY NORTH (CI FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR FL).  HOT, ESPECIALLY KPHL NORTH.  WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY 20 MPH DURING THE
EVENING I-95 EASTWARD. SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON TSTM E PA OR
THE N 2/3RDS NJ AHEAD A WEAK WIND SHIFT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...SUNNY AND HOT.  LIGHT N TO NW WIND, GUSTS UNDER 15 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT. COULD BE A PERIOD OF THICK
CIRRUS. LIGHT SW WIND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND HOT. LIGHT NW WIND. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAX TEMPS DEPEND IN PART ON THE COLD FRONTAL
POSITION AND THE STRENGTH OF GEFS ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE WARMER THAN
NORMAL ATLANTIC WATERS. COULD STILL BE HOT IN THE INTERIOR? LOOKS
TO BE MORE HUMID WITH THE OCEAN INFLOW OFF THE SSTS IN THE 70S.
EVENTUALLY A CHANCE OF TSTMS? PROBABLY MOST FAVORED IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF E PA AND NW NJ BUT RATHER FAR IN THE FUTURE TO BE CONFIDENT.
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE (POSITION OF COLD FRONT).

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AT AROUND 5000 FEET.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS. A SEA BREEZE SHOULD TURN THE
WINDS MORE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT KACY, WITH THIS ALSO
OCCURRING AT KILG DUE TO A BAY BREEZE.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH REMAINING CUMULUS DISSIPATING IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED MVFR FOG TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
MOST TERMINALS, TO LOCALLY CALM.

SUNDAY...PERHAPS LOCALIZED MVFR FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR WITH SOME
CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10
KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND PERHAPS KILG DUE
TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR MAINLY CIRRUS.  LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH
COUNTRYSIDE FOG MONDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE
VCNTY KMPO/KABE DURING THE EVENING?

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15-20 KT
16Z THROUGH 00Z/1. SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSTMS KPHL NORTHWARD.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

MONDAY NIGHT... VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH COUNTRYSIDE FOG
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WIND TURNING NW-N LATE. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT N TO NW WIND...GUSTS
UNDER 15 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT SW WIND. ANOTHER
BATCH OF CIRRUS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W WIND BECOMING N OR NW. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR A
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, SOME INCREASE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING MOSTLY DUE TO A SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE NEARSHORE.
THIS MAY ALSO OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT- THURSDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND/OR MONDAY EVENING, OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 11 SECONDS/ EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES
INTO TONIGHT, WITH SEAS IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE. A FULL MOON
/HIGHER TIDE LEVELS/ AND A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR TRICKY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE SURF ZONE ESPECIALLY FOR NEW JERSEY. AS A
RESULT A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY COAST CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER A LOW RISK IS
MAINTAINED FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...APPEARS TO BE LOW ENHANCED WITH RESIDUAL IMPACT FROM TODAYS
3 FT 11 SECOND SE SWELL BUT THE SWELL SHOULD BE SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT
ON SUNDAY. STILL FULL MOON IMPACT SO LARGER THAN NORMAL TIDAL
EXCHANGE.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE A DAILY LOW RISK.
THE RISK MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY NEXT FRIDAY-SATURDAY DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AND SIZE-PERIOD OF THE SWELL.

CONCERN: ABOVE NORMAL SST`S (UPPER 70S) AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THIS LAST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER AND SWIMMERS-WADERS BEING TOO CASUAL
IN THE SURF ZONE SINCE THE RC RISK IS LOW. FOR GREATEST SAFETY...
SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS AND DURING THEIR COVERAGE
HOURS. SWIMMING AT JETTIES, PIERS, GROINS IS ILL ADVISED SINCE RIP
CURRENTS REPEATEDLY FORM THERE. SWIMMING AT NIGHT OR NOT IN SIGHT
OF LIFE GUARDS IS RISKY. WATER TROUBLE CAN QUICKLY TURN TO
RECOVERY INSTEAD OF RESCUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE HAVE LOOKED AT RECORDS FOR NEXT WEEK (NEAR 100F IN 1953) AND SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT A HEAT WAVE OCCURS NEXT WEEK,
NOT ENOUGH HEAT IS INDICATED TO CHALLENGE THE RECORDS. RECORD
HIGHS NEXT FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE LOWER BUT NOT SURE HOW
MUCH ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS, THEREFORE KEEPING IT COOLER THAN
RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 292221
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
621 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THURSDAY WITH A HEAT WAVE LIKELY. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTH INTO OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY WITH A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
DOMINANT OVER COASTAL EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

ONLY A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE 6:30 PM UPDATE. A CHANGE WAS
TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE LOCATION OF THE SEA BREEZE COMING THROUGH
CENTRAL NJ WITH REGARDS TO WIND DIRECTION TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
FROM OCEAN COUNTY TO CAPE MAY AND ALONG DELAWARE BAY AS WELL.
SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DEWPOINT AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WERE
MADE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE, AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME. MEANWHILE, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. OUR WEATHER
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DOMINATED BY THE DEPARTING SURFACE
HIGH, THEREFORE A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED.

MOSTLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL BE AROUND AT TIMES. THE
LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTED IN A SEA BREEZE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INLAND SOME BEFORE WASHING OUT EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS HELPED TO INCREASE THE SURFACE DEW POINTS SOME, ALTHOUGH
SOME LOWERING IN SPOTS HAD BEEN NOTED TODAY DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING AND SOME MIXING. THESE SHOULD EDGE UP A BIT THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS COOLING OCCURS AND THE MOISTURE STARTS TO POOL CLOSEST TO
THE SURFACE. THIS COULD ALSO LEAD TO GROUND FOG IN LOCALIZED
SPOTS.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED MAINLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND
THESE ARE A LITTLE HIGHER OVERALL WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE DEW
POINTS WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE ARRIVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY, AND AS IT DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME MOISTURE
ON THE INCREASE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT TO OUR WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY CAN BE
MAINTAINED AS IT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES MAINLY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING, WITH THIS PROBABLY BETTER ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS MOSTLY SHOW A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE
WHICH TENDS TO KEEP UPDRAFTS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST
DURING PEAK HEATING, HOWEVER TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH COULD COME INTO PLAY AND THEREFORE WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC
POP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

IT WILL BE RATHER WARM TO HOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, HOWEVER DEW
POINTS MAY BE HIGHER IN THE MORNING DUE TO HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALLOWING FOR SOME DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT TIGHT, THEREFORE LIGHT
ENOUGH FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA BREEZE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN MOS BLEND THEN MADE
SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: A RIDGE OF WARM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA DEVELOPS
NORTHWESTWARD THIS WEEK WHILE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS LODGED
VICINITY OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 28TH AVERAGED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES BELOW NORMAL.
KTTN, KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING 1 TO ~2F ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR
DAY DEPARTURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL WARM THE MONTHLY AVERAGES
COMPARED TO NORMAL. AS IT STANDS FROM THE 12Z/29 MODEL GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 6 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY-
THURSDAY. THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY-
SATURDAY BEHIND A SOUTHWARD DRIFTING COLD FRONT AND THERE IS NO
CERTAINTY THAT THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY. IT COULD BE DELAYED
OR LESS EFFECTIVELY COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE OUTCOME IS IN PART DEPENDENT ON THE AMPLITUDE AND
LONGITUDE OF A TROUGH EAST OF THE MARITIMES LATE THIS COMING WEEK.

THE GREATEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY SHOULD RESIDE NEAR AND N OF I-78.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 12Z/29 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT - FAVORING THE WARMER OF THE
AVBL GUIDANCE SINCE THE 12Z NCEP AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS ARE RATHER
WARM AND 850 TEMPS 16-18C. THIS APPROACH WAS EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY EXCEPT THE 12Z/29 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WHICH WAS BLENDED WITH THE 1521Z WPC GUIDE. THE 1521Z/29
WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR
DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND WAS USED AS IS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD.

HAZARDS THROUGH DAY 7: OTHER THAN RIP CURRENT MODERATE RISK
TODAY-THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY AND THE END OF NEXT WEEK; ITS ABOUT
A PROBABLE HEAT WAVE AND HOW LONG. FOR NOW, THE MAX HEAT INDEX IS
FORECAST TO BE REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...DEWPOINTS STILL ON
THE LOWER SIDE OF WHAT THEY COULD BE. HEAT WAVE BEGINS SUNDAY OR
MONDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND PROBABLY EXTENDS THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. OUR MAX HEAT INDEX FORECAST RIGHT NOW IS IN THE
MID 90S.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...VARIABLE CIRRUS, ESPECIALLY KPHL SOUTH OTHERWISE
FAIR. LIGHT WIND. SMALL CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM NW OF I-95, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE APPEARING TO BE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN MONROE
AND SUSSEX COUNTIES OF NE PA AND NW NJ. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH AND BECOMING SUNNY NORTH (CI FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR FL).  HOT, ESPECIALLY KPHL NORTH.  WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY 20 MPH DURING THE
EVENING I-95 EASTWARD. SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON TSTM E PA OR
THE N 2/3RDS NJ AHEAD A WEAK WIND SHIFT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...SUNNY AND HOT.  LIGHT N TO NW WIND, GUSTS UNDER 15 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT. COULD BE A PERIOD OF THICK
CIRRUS. LIGHT SW WIND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND HOT. LIGHT NW WIND. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAX TEMPS DEPEND IN PART ON THE COLD FRONTAL
POSITION AND THE STRENGTH OF GEFS ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE WARMER THAN
NORMAL ATLANTIC WATERS. COULD STILL BE HOT IN THE INTERIOR? LOOKS
TO BE MORE HUMID WITH THE OCEAN INFLOW OFF THE SSTS IN THE 70S.
EVENTUALLY A CHANCE OF TSTMS? PROBABLY MOST FAVORED IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF E PA AND NW NJ BUT RATHER FAR IN THE FUTURE TO BE CONFIDENT.
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE (POSITION OF COLD FRONT).

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AT AROUND 5000 FEET.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS. A SEA BREEZE SHOULD TURN THE
WINDS MORE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT KACY, WITH THIS ALSO
OCCURRING AT KILG DUE TO A BAY BREEZE.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH REMAINING CUMULUS DISSIPATING IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED MVFR FOG TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
MOST TERMINALS, TO LOCALLY CALM.

SUNDAY...PERHAPS LOCALIZED MVFR FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR WITH SOME
CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10
KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND PERHAPS KILG DUE
TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR MAINLY CIRRUS.  LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH
COUNTRYSIDE FOG MONDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE
VCNTY KMPO/KABE DURING THE EVENING?

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15-20 KT
16Z THROUGH 00Z/1. SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSTMS KPHL NORTHWARD.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

MONDAY NIGHT... VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH COUNTRYSIDE FOG
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WIND TURNING NW-N LATE. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT N TO NW WIND...GUSTS
UNDER 15 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT SW WIND. ANOTHER
BATCH OF CIRRUS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W WIND BECOMING N OR NW. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR A
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, SOME INCREASE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING MOSTLY DUE TO A SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE NEARSHORE.
THIS MAY ALSO OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT- THURSDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND/OR MONDAY EVENING, OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 11 SECONDS/ EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES
INTO TONIGHT, WITH SEAS IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE. A FULL MOON
/HIGHER TIDE LEVELS/ AND A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR TRICKY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE SURF ZONE ESPECIALLY FOR NEW JERSEY. AS A
RESULT A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY COAST CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER A LOW RISK IS
MAINTAINED FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...APPEARS TO BE LOW ENHANCED WITH RESIDUAL IMPACT FROM TODAYS
3 FT 11 SECOND SE SWELL BUT THE SWELL SHOULD BE SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT
ON SUNDAY. STILL FULL MOON IMPACT SO LARGER THAN NORMAL TIDAL
EXCHANGE.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE A DAILY LOW RISK.
THE RISK MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY NEXT FRIDAY-SATURDAY DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AND SIZE-PERIOD OF THE SWELL.

CONCERN: ABOVE NORMAL SST`S (UPPER 70S) AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THIS LAST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER AND SWIMMERS-WADERS BEING TOO CASUAL
IN THE SURF ZONE SINCE THE RC RISK IS LOW. FOR GREATEST SAFETY...
SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS AND DURING THEIR COVERAGE
HOURS. SWIMMING AT JETTIES, PIERS, GROINS IS ILL ADVISED SINCE RIP
CURRENTS REPEATEDLY FORM THERE. SWIMMING AT NIGHT OR NOT IN SIGHT
OF LIFE GUARDS IS RISKY. WATER TROUBLE CAN QUICKLY TURN TO
RECOVERY INSTEAD OF RESCUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE HAVE LOOKED AT RECORDS FOR NEXT WEEK (NEAR 100F IN 1953) AND SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT A HEAT WAVE OCCURS NEXT WEEK,
NOT ENOUGH HEAT IS INDICATED TO CHALLENGE THE RECORDS. RECORD
HIGHS NEXT FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE LOWER BUT NOT SURE HOW
MUCH ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS, THEREFORE KEEPING IT COOLER THAN
RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 292020
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
420 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THURSDAY WITH A HEAT WAVE LIKELY. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTH INTO OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY WITH A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
DOMINANT OVER COASTAL EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE, AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME. MEANWHILE, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DOMINATED BY THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH,
THEREFORE A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED.

THE CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, THEN MOSTLY SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AROUND AT TIMES. THE LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW COMBINED WITH
AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN A SEA
BREEZE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND SOME BEFORE WASHING OUT
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS HELPED TO INCREASE THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS SOME, ALTHOUGH SOME LOWERING IN SPOTS HAS BEEN
NOTED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND SOME MIXING.
THESE SHOULD EDGE UP A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COOLING OCCURS AND
THE MOISTURE STARTS TO POOL CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE. THIS COULD ALSO
LEAD TO GROUND FOG IN LOCALIZED SPOTS.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED MAINLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND
THESE ARE A LITTLE HIGHER OVERALL WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE DEW
POINTS WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE ARRIVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY, AND AS IT DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME MOISTURE
ON THE INCREASE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT TO OUR WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY CAN BE
MAINTAINED AS IT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES MAINLY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING, WITH THIS PROBABLY BETTER ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS MOSTLY SHOW A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE
WHICH TENDS TO KEEP UPDRAFTS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST
DURING PEAK HEATING, HOWEVER TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH COULD COME INTO PLAY AND THEREFORE WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC
POP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

IT WILL BE RATHER WARM TO HOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, HOWEVER DEW
POINTS MAY BE HIGHER IN THE MORNING DUE TO HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALLOWING FOR SOME DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT TIGHT, THEREFORE LIGHT
ENOUGH FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA BREEZE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN MOS BLEND THEN MADE
SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: A RIDGE OF WARM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA DEVELOPS
NORTHWESTWARD THIS WEEK WHILE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS LODGED
VICINITY OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 28TH AVERAGED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES BELOW NORMAL.
KTTN, KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING 1 TO ~2F ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR
DAY DEPARTURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL WARM THE MONTHLY AVERAGES
COMPARED TO NORMAL. AS IT STANDS FROM THE 12Z/29 MODEL GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 6 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY-
THURSDAY. THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY-
SATURDAY BEHIND A SOUTHWARD DRIFTING COLD FRONT AND THERE IS NO
CERTAINTY THAT THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY. IT COULD BE DELAYED
OR LESS EFFECTIVELY COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE OUTCOME IS IN PART DEPENDENT ON THE AMPLITUDE AND
LONGITUDE OF A TROUGH EAST OF THE MARITIMES LATE THIS COMING WEEK.

THE GREATEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY SHOULD RESIDE NEAR AND N OF I-78.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 12Z/29 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT - FAVORING THE WARMER OF THE
AVBL GUIDANCE SINCE THE 12Z NCEP AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS ARE RATHER
WARM AND 850 TEMPS 16-18C. THIS APPROACH WAS EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY EXCEPT THE 12Z/29 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WHICH WAS BLENDED WITH THE 1521Z WPC GUIDE. THE 1521Z/29
WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR
DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND WAS USED AS IS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD.

HAZARDS THROUGH DAY 7: OTHER THAN RIP CURRENT MODERATE RISK
TODAY-THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY AND THE END OF NEXT WEEK; ITS ABOUT
A PROBABLE HEAT WAVE AND HOW LONG. FOR NOW, THE MAX HEAT INDEX IS
FORECAST TO BE REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...DEWPOINTS STILL ON
THE LOWER SIDE OF WHAT THEY COULD BE. HEAT WAVE BEGINS SUNDAY OR
MONDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND PROBABLY EXTENDS THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. OUR MAX HEAT INDEX FORECAST RIGHT NOW IS IN THE
MID 90S.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...VARIABLE CIRRUS, ESPECIALLY KPHL SOUTH OTHERWISE
FAIR. LIGHT WIND. SMALL CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM NW OF I-95, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE APPEARING TO BE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN MONROE
AND SUSSEX COUNTIES OF NE PA AND NW NJ. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH AND BECOMING SUNNY NORTH (CI FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR FL).  HOT, ESPECIALLY KPHL NORTH.  WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY 20 MPH DURING THE
EVENING I-95 EASTWARD. SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON TSTM E PA OR
THE N 2/3RDS NJ AHEAD A WEAK WIND SHIFT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...SUNNY AND HOT.  LIGHT N TO NW WIND, GUSTS UNDER 15 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT. COULD BE A PERIOD OF THICK
CIRRUS. LIGHT SW WIND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND HOT. LIGHT NW WIND. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAX TEMPS DEPEND IN PART ON THE COLD FRONTAL
POSITION AND THE STRENGTH OF GEFS ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE WARMER THAN
NORMAL ATLANTIC WATERS. COULD STILL BE HOT IN THE INTERIOR? LOOKS
TO BE MORE HUMID WITH THE OCEAN INFLOW OFF THE SSTS IN THE 70S.
EVENTUALLY A CHANCE OF TSTMS? PROBABLY MOST FAVORED IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF E PA AND NW NJ BUT RATHER FAR IN THE FUTURE TO BE CONFIDENT.
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE (POSITION OF COLD FRONT).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AT AROUND 5000 FEET.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS. A SEA BREEZE SHOULD TURN THE
WINDS MORE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT KACY, WITH THIS ALSO
OCCURRING AT KILG DUE TO A BAY BREEZE.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH REMAINING CUMULUS DISSIPATING IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED MVFR FOG TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
MOST TERMINALS, TO LOCALLY CALM.

SUNDAY...PERHAPS LOCALIZED MVFR FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR WITH SOME
CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10
KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND PERHAPS KILG DUE
TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR MAINLY CIRRUS.  LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH
COUNTRYSIDE FOG MONDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE
VCNTY KMPO/KABE DURING THE EVENING?

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15-20 KT
16Z THROUGH 00Z/1. SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSTMS KPHL NORTHWARD.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

MONDAY NIGHT... VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH COUNTRYSIDE FOG
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WIND TURNING NW-N LATE. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT N TO NW WIND...GUSTS
UNDER 15 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT SW WIND. ANOTHER
BATCH OF CIRRUS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W WIND BECOMING N OR NW. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR A
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, SOME INCREASE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING MOSTLY DUE TO A SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE NEARSHORE.
THIS MAY ALSO OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT- THURSDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND/OR MONDAY EVENING, OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 11 SECONDS/ EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES
INTO TONIGHT, WITH SEAS IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE. A FULL MOON
/HIGHER TIDE LEVELS/ AND A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR TRICKY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE SURF ZONE ESPECIALLY FOR NEW JERSEY. AS A
RESULT A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY COAST CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER A LOW RISK IS
MAINTAINED FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...APPEARS TO BE LOW ENHANCED WITH RESIDUAL IMPACT FROM TODAYS
3 FT 11 SECOND SE SWELL BUT THE SWELL SHOULD BE SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT
ON SUNDAY. STILL FULL MOON IMPACT SO LARGER THAN NORMAL TIDAL
EXCHANGE.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE A DAILY LOW RISK.
THE RISK MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY NEXT FRIDAY-SATURDAY DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AND SIZE-PERIOD OF THE SWELL.

CONCERN: ABOVE NORMAL SST`S (UPPER 70S) AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THIS LAST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER AND SWIMMERS-WADERS BEING TOO CASUAL
IN THE SURF ZONE SINCE THE RC RISK IS LOW. FOR GREATEST SAFETY...
SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS AND DURING THEIR COVERAGE
HOURS. SWIMMING AT JETTIES, PIERS, GROINS IS ILL ADVISED SINCE RIP
CURRENTS REPEATEDLY FORM THERE. SWIMMING AT NIGHT OR NOT IN SIGHT
OF LIFE GUARDS IS RISKY. WATER TROUBLE CAN QUICKLY TURN TO
RECOVERY INSTEAD OF RESCUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE HAVE LOOKED AT RECORDS FOR NEXT WEEK (NEAR 100F IN 1953) AND SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT A HEAT WAVE OCCURS NEXT WEEK,
NOT ENOUGH HEAT IS INDICATED TO CHALLENGE THE RECORDS. RECORD
HIGHS NEXT FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE LOWER BUT NOT SURE HOW
MUCH ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS, THEREFORE KEEPING IT COOLER THAN
RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 420
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...420
CLIMATE...420




000
FXUS61 KPHI 292020
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
420 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THURSDAY WITH A HEAT WAVE LIKELY. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTH INTO OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY WITH A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
DOMINANT OVER COASTAL EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE, AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME. MEANWHILE, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DOMINATED BY THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH,
THEREFORE A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED.

THE CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, THEN MOSTLY SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AROUND AT TIMES. THE LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW COMBINED WITH
AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN A SEA
BREEZE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND SOME BEFORE WASHING OUT
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS HELPED TO INCREASE THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS SOME, ALTHOUGH SOME LOWERING IN SPOTS HAS BEEN
NOTED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND SOME MIXING.
THESE SHOULD EDGE UP A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COOLING OCCURS AND
THE MOISTURE STARTS TO POOL CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE. THIS COULD ALSO
LEAD TO GROUND FOG IN LOCALIZED SPOTS.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED MAINLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND
THESE ARE A LITTLE HIGHER OVERALL WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE DEW
POINTS WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE ARRIVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY, AND AS IT DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME MOISTURE
ON THE INCREASE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT TO OUR WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY CAN BE
MAINTAINED AS IT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES MAINLY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING, WITH THIS PROBABLY BETTER ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS MOSTLY SHOW A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE
WHICH TENDS TO KEEP UPDRAFTS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST
DURING PEAK HEATING, HOWEVER TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH COULD COME INTO PLAY AND THEREFORE WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC
POP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

IT WILL BE RATHER WARM TO HOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, HOWEVER DEW
POINTS MAY BE HIGHER IN THE MORNING DUE TO HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALLOWING FOR SOME DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT TIGHT, THEREFORE LIGHT
ENOUGH FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA BREEZE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN MOS BLEND THEN MADE
SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: A RIDGE OF WARM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA DEVELOPS
NORTHWESTWARD THIS WEEK WHILE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS LODGED
VICINITY OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 28TH AVERAGED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES BELOW NORMAL.
KTTN, KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING 1 TO ~2F ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR
DAY DEPARTURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL WARM THE MONTHLY AVERAGES
COMPARED TO NORMAL. AS IT STANDS FROM THE 12Z/29 MODEL GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 6 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY-
THURSDAY. THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY-
SATURDAY BEHIND A SOUTHWARD DRIFTING COLD FRONT AND THERE IS NO
CERTAINTY THAT THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY. IT COULD BE DELAYED
OR LESS EFFECTIVELY COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE OUTCOME IS IN PART DEPENDENT ON THE AMPLITUDE AND
LONGITUDE OF A TROUGH EAST OF THE MARITIMES LATE THIS COMING WEEK.

THE GREATEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY SHOULD RESIDE NEAR AND N OF I-78.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 12Z/29 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT - FAVORING THE WARMER OF THE
AVBL GUIDANCE SINCE THE 12Z NCEP AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS ARE RATHER
WARM AND 850 TEMPS 16-18C. THIS APPROACH WAS EXTENDED THROUGH
THURSDAY EXCEPT THE 12Z/29 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WHICH WAS BLENDED WITH THE 1521Z WPC GUIDE. THE 1521Z/29
WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR
DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND WAS USED AS IS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD.

HAZARDS THROUGH DAY 7: OTHER THAN RIP CURRENT MODERATE RISK
TODAY-THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY AND THE END OF NEXT WEEK; ITS ABOUT
A PROBABLE HEAT WAVE AND HOW LONG. FOR NOW, THE MAX HEAT INDEX IS
FORECAST TO BE REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...DEWPOINTS STILL ON
THE LOWER SIDE OF WHAT THEY COULD BE. HEAT WAVE BEGINS SUNDAY OR
MONDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND PROBABLY EXTENDS THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. OUR MAX HEAT INDEX FORECAST RIGHT NOW IS IN THE
MID 90S.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...VARIABLE CIRRUS, ESPECIALLY KPHL SOUTH OTHERWISE
FAIR. LIGHT WIND. SMALL CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM NW OF I-95, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE APPEARING TO BE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN MONROE
AND SUSSEX COUNTIES OF NE PA AND NW NJ. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH AND BECOMING SUNNY NORTH (CI FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR FL).  HOT, ESPECIALLY KPHL NORTH.  WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY 20 MPH DURING THE
EVENING I-95 EASTWARD. SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON TSTM E PA OR
THE N 2/3RDS NJ AHEAD A WEAK WIND SHIFT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...SUNNY AND HOT.  LIGHT N TO NW WIND, GUSTS UNDER 15 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT. COULD BE A PERIOD OF THICK
CIRRUS. LIGHT SW WIND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND HOT. LIGHT NW WIND. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAX TEMPS DEPEND IN PART ON THE COLD FRONTAL
POSITION AND THE STRENGTH OF GEFS ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE WARMER THAN
NORMAL ATLANTIC WATERS. COULD STILL BE HOT IN THE INTERIOR? LOOKS
TO BE MORE HUMID WITH THE OCEAN INFLOW OFF THE SSTS IN THE 70S.
EVENTUALLY A CHANCE OF TSTMS? PROBABLY MOST FAVORED IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF E PA AND NW NJ BUT RATHER FAR IN THE FUTURE TO BE CONFIDENT.
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE (POSITION OF COLD FRONT).

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AT AROUND 5000 FEET.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS. A SEA BREEZE SHOULD TURN THE
WINDS MORE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT KACY, WITH THIS ALSO
OCCURRING AT KILG DUE TO A BAY BREEZE.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH REMAINING CUMULUS DISSIPATING IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED MVFR FOG TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
MOST TERMINALS, TO LOCALLY CALM.

SUNDAY...PERHAPS LOCALIZED MVFR FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR WITH SOME
CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10
KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND PERHAPS KILG DUE
TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR MAINLY CIRRUS.  LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH
COUNTRYSIDE FOG MONDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE
VCNTY KMPO/KABE DURING THE EVENING?

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15-20 KT
16Z THROUGH 00Z/1. SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSTMS KPHL NORTHWARD.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

MONDAY NIGHT... VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH COUNTRYSIDE FOG
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WIND TURNING NW-N LATE. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT N TO NW WIND...GUSTS
UNDER 15 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT SW WIND. ANOTHER
BATCH OF CIRRUS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W WIND BECOMING N OR NW. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR A
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, SOME INCREASE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING MOSTLY DUE TO A SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE NEARSHORE.
THIS MAY ALSO OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT- THURSDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND/OR MONDAY EVENING, OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 11 SECONDS/ EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES
INTO TONIGHT, WITH SEAS IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE. A FULL MOON
/HIGHER TIDE LEVELS/ AND A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR TRICKY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE SURF ZONE ESPECIALLY FOR NEW JERSEY. AS A
RESULT A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY COAST CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER A LOW RISK IS
MAINTAINED FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...APPEARS TO BE LOW ENHANCED WITH RESIDUAL IMPACT FROM TODAYS
3 FT 11 SECOND SE SWELL BUT THE SWELL SHOULD BE SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT
ON SUNDAY. STILL FULL MOON IMPACT SO LARGER THAN NORMAL TIDAL
EXCHANGE.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE A DAILY LOW RISK.
THE RISK MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY NEXT FRIDAY-SATURDAY DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AND SIZE-PERIOD OF THE SWELL.

CONCERN: ABOVE NORMAL SST`S (UPPER 70S) AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THIS LAST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER AND SWIMMERS-WADERS BEING TOO CASUAL
IN THE SURF ZONE SINCE THE RC RISK IS LOW. FOR GREATEST SAFETY...
SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFE GUARDS AND DURING THEIR COVERAGE
HOURS. SWIMMING AT JETTIES, PIERS, GROINS IS ILL ADVISED SINCE RIP
CURRENTS REPEATEDLY FORM THERE. SWIMMING AT NIGHT OR NOT IN SIGHT
OF LIFE GUARDS IS RISKY. WATER TROUBLE CAN QUICKLY TURN TO
RECOVERY INSTEAD OF RESCUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE HAVE LOOKED AT RECORDS FOR NEXT WEEK (NEAR 100F IN 1953) AND SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH THAT A HEAT WAVE OCCURS NEXT WEEK,
NOT ENOUGH HEAT IS INDICATED TO CHALLENGE THE RECORDS. RECORD
HIGHS NEXT FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE LOWER BUT NOT SURE HOW
MUCH ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS, THEREFORE KEEPING IT COOLER THAN
RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...DRAG 420
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...420
CLIMATE...420





000
FXUS61 KPHI 291950
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THURSDAY WITH A HEAT WAVE LIKELY. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTH INTO OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY WITH A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
DOMINANT OVER COASTAL EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE, AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME. MEANWHILE, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DOMINATED BY THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH,
THEREFORE A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED.

THE CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, THEN MOSTLY SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AROUND AT TIMES. THE LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW COMBINED WITH
AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN A SEA
BREEZE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND SOME BEFORE WASHING OUT
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS HELPED TO INCREASE THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS SOME, ALTHOUGH SOME LOWERING IN SPOTS HAS BEEN
NOTED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND SOME MIXING.
THESE SHOULD EDGE UP A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COOLING OCCURS AND
THE MOISTURE STARTS TO POOL CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE. THIS COULD ALSO
LEAD TO GROUND FOG IN LOCALIZED SPOTS.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED MAINLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND
THESE ARE A LITTLE HIGHER OVERALL WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE DEW
POINTS WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE ARRIVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY, AND AS IT DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME MOISTURE
ON THE INCREASE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT TO OUR WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY CAN BE
MAINTAINED AS IT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES MAINLY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING, WITH THIS PROBABLY BETTER ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS MOSTLY SHOW A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE
WHICH TENDS TO KEEP UPDRAFTS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST
DURING PEAK HEATING, HOWEVER TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH COULD COME INTO PLAY AND THEREFORE WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC
POP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

IT WILL BE RATHER WARM TO HOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, HOWEVER DEW
POINTS MAY BE HIGHER IN THE MORNING DUE TO HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALLOWING FOR SOME DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT TIGHT, THEREFORE LIGHT
ENOUGH FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA BREEZE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN MOS BLEND THEN MADE
SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: A RIDGE OF WARM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA DEVELOPS
NORTHWESTWARD THIS WEEK WHILE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS LODGED
VICINITY OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 28TH AVERAGED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES BELOW NORMAL.
KTTN, KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING 1 TO ~2F ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR
DAY DEPARTURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL WARM THE MONTHLY AVERAGES
COMPARED TO NORMAL. AS IT STANDS FROM THE 12Z/29 MODEL GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 6 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY-
THURSDAY. THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY-
SATURDAY BEHIND A SOUTHWARD DRIFTING COLD FRONT AND THERE IS NO
CERTAINTY THAT THAT COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY. IT COULD BE DELAYED
OR LESS EFFECTIVELY COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE OUTCOME IS IN PART DEPENDENT ON THE AMPLITUDE AND
LONGITUDE OF A TROUGH EAST OF THE MARITIMES LATE THIS COMING WEEK.

THE GREATEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD
RESIDE NEAR AND N OF I-78.

FORECAST BASIS:  UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT - FAVORING THE WARMER OF THE AVBL
GUIDANCE SINCE THE 12Z NCEP AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS ARE RATHER WARM
AND 850 TEMPS 16-18C. THE 12Z/29 MEX MOS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
THEN THE 1521Z/29 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD.

HAZARDS THROUGH DAY 7: OTHER THAN RIP CURRENT MODERATE RISK
TODAY-THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY AND THE END OF OF NEXT WEEK;  ITS
ABOUT A PROBABLE HEAT WAVE AND HOW LONG. FOR NOW, THE MAX HEAT
INDEX IS FORECAST TO BE REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...DEWPOINTS
STILL ON THE LOWER SIDE OF WHAT THEY COULD BE. HEAT WAVE BEGINS
SUNDAY OR MONDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND PROBABLY
EXTENDS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. OUR MAX HEAT INDEX FORECAST
RIGHT NOW IS IN THE MID 90S.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...VARIABLE CIRRUS, ESPECIALLY KPHL SOUTH OTHERWISE
FAIR. LIGHT WIND. SMALL CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM NW OF I-95, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE APPEARING TO BE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN MONROE
AND SUSSEX COUNTIES OF NE PA AND NW NJ. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH AND BECOMING SUNNY NORTH (CI FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR FL).  HOT, ESPECIALLY KPHL NORTH.  WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY 20 MPH DURING THE
EVENING I-95 EASTWARD. SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON TSTM E PA OR
THE N 2/3RDS NJ AHEAD A WEAK WIND SHIFT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...SUNNY AND HOT.  LIGHT N TO NW WIND, GUSTS UNDER 15 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT. COULD BE A PERIOD OF THICK
CIRRUS. LIGHT SW WIND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND HOT. LIGHT NW WIND. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAX TEMPS DEPEND IN PART ON THE COLD FRONTAL
POSITION AND THE STRENGTH OF GEFS ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE WARMER THAN
NORMAL ATLANTIC WATERS. COULD STILL BE HOT IN THE INTERIOR? LOOKS
TO BE MORE HUMID WITH THE OCEAN INFLOW OFF THE SSTS IN THE 70S.
EVENTUALLY A CHANCE OF TSTMS? PROBABLY MOST FAVORED IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF E PA AND NW NJ BUT RATHER FAR IN THE FUTURE TO BE CONFIDENT.
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE (POSITION OF COLD FRONT).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AT AROUND 5000 FEET.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS. A SEA BREEZE SHOULD TURN THE
WINDS MORE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT KACY, WITH THIS ALSO
OCCURRING AT KILG DUE TO A BAY BREEZE.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH REMAINING CUMULUS DISSIPATING IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED MVFR FOG TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
MOST TERMINALS, TO LOCALLY CALM.

SUNDAY...PERHAPS LOCALIZED MVFR FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR WITH SOME
CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10
KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND PERHAPS KILG DUE
TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR MAINLY CIRRUS.  LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH
COUNTRYSIDE FOG MONDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE
VCNTY KMPO/KABE DURING THE EVENING?

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15-20 KT
16Z THROUGH 00Z/1. SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSTMS KPHL NORTHWARD.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

MONDAY NIGHT... VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH COUNTRYSIDE FOG
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WIND TURNING NW-N LATE. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT N TO NW WIND...GUSTS
UNDER 15 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT SW WIND. ANOTHER
BATCH OF CIRRUS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W WIND BECOMING N OR NW. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.



&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR A
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, SOME INCREASE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING MOSTLY DUE TO A SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE NEARSHORE.
THIS MAY ALSO OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT- THURSDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND/OR MONDAY EVENING, OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 11 SECONDS/ EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES
INTO TONIGHT, WITH SEAS IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE. A FULL MOON
/HIGHER TIDE LEVELS/ AND A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR TRICKY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE SURF ZONE ESPECIALLY FOR NEW JERSEY. AS A
RESULT A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY COAST CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER A LOW RISK IS
MAINTAINED FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...APPEARS TO BE LOW ENHANCED WITH RESIDUAL IMPACT FROM TODAYS
3 FT 11 SECOND SE SWELL BUT THE SWELL SHOULD BE SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT
ON SUNDAY. STILL FULL MOON IMPACT SO LARGER THAN NORMAL TIDAL
EXCHANGE.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE A DAILY LOW
RISK. THE RISK MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY NEXT FRIDAY-SATURDAY DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AND SIZE-PERIOD OF THE SWELL.

CONCERN: ABOVE NORMAL SST`S (UPPER 70S) AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THIS LAST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER AND FOLKS BEING TOO CASUAL SINCE THE
RC RISK IS LOW. FOR GREATEST SAFETY... SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFE GUARDS AND DURING THEIR COVERAGE HOURS. SWIMMING AT JETTIES,
PIERS, GROINS IS ILL ADVISED SINCE RIP CURRENTS REPEATEDLY FORM
THERE. SWIMMING AT NIGHT OR NOT IN SIGHT OF LIFE GUARDS IS RISKY.
WATER TROUBLE CAN QUICKLY TURN TO RECOVERY INSTEAD OF RESCUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE HAVE LOOKED AT RECORDS FOR NEXT WEEK (NEAR 100F IN 1953) AND SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH IN A HEAT WAVE OCCURS NEXT WEEK,
NOT ENOUGH HEAT IS INDICATED TO CHALLENGE THE RECORDS. RECORD HIGHS
NEXT FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE LOWER BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH ONSHORE
FLOW PREVAILS, THEREFORE KEEPING IT COOLER THAN RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 350
NEAR TERM...GORSE 350
SHORT TERM...GORSE 350
LONG TERM...DRAG 350
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 350
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 350
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE/DRAG 350
CLIMATE...DRAG 350




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291950
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THURSDAY WITH A HEAT WAVE LIKELY. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTH INTO OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY WITH A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
DOMINANT OVER COASTAL EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE, AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME. MEANWHILE, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DOMINATED BY THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH,
THEREFORE A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED.

THE CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, THEN MOSTLY SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AROUND AT TIMES. THE LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW COMBINED WITH
AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN A SEA
BREEZE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND SOME BEFORE WASHING OUT
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS HELPED TO INCREASE THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS SOME, ALTHOUGH SOME LOWERING IN SPOTS HAS BEEN
NOTED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND SOME MIXING.
THESE SHOULD EDGE UP A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COOLING OCCURS AND
THE MOISTURE STARTS TO POOL CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE. THIS COULD ALSO
LEAD TO GROUND FOG IN LOCALIZED SPOTS.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED MAINLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND
THESE ARE A LITTLE HIGHER OVERALL WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE DEW
POINTS WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE ARRIVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY, AND AS IT DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME MOISTURE
ON THE INCREASE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT TO OUR WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY CAN BE
MAINTAINED AS IT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES MAINLY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING, WITH THIS PROBABLY BETTER ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS MOSTLY SHOW A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE
WHICH TENDS TO KEEP UPDRAFTS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST
DURING PEAK HEATING, HOWEVER TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH COULD COME INTO PLAY AND THEREFORE WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC
POP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

IT WILL BE RATHER WARM TO HOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, HOWEVER DEW
POINTS MAY BE HIGHER IN THE MORNING DUE TO HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALLOWING FOR SOME DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT TIGHT, THEREFORE LIGHT
ENOUGH FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA BREEZE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN MOS BLEND THEN MADE
SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: A RIDGE OF WARM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA DEVELOPS
NORTHWESTWARD THIS WEEK WHILE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS LODGED
VICINITY OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 28TH AVERAGED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES BELOW NORMAL.
KTTN, KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING 1 TO ~2F ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR
DAY DEPARTURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL WARM THE MONTHLY AVERAGES
COMPARED TO NORMAL. AS IT STANDS FROM THE 12Z/29 MODEL GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 6 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY-
THURSDAY. THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY-
SATURDAY BEHIND A SOUTHWARD DRIFTING COLD FRONT AND THERE IS NO
CERTAINTY THAT THAT COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY. IT COULD BE DELAYED
OR LESS EFFECTIVELY COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE OUTCOME IS IN PART DEPENDENT ON THE AMPLITUDE AND
LONGITUDE OF A TROUGH EAST OF THE MARITIMES LATE THIS COMING WEEK.

THE GREATEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD
RESIDE NEAR AND N OF I-78.

FORECAST BASIS:  UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT - FAVORING THE WARMER OF THE AVBL
GUIDANCE SINCE THE 12Z NCEP AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS ARE RATHER WARM
AND 850 TEMPS 16-18C. THE 12Z/29 MEX MOS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
THEN THE 1521Z/29 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD.

HAZARDS THROUGH DAY 7: OTHER THAN RIP CURRENT MODERATE RISK
TODAY-THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY AND THE END OF OF NEXT WEEK;  ITS
ABOUT A PROBABLE HEAT WAVE AND HOW LONG. FOR NOW, THE MAX HEAT
INDEX IS FORECAST TO BE REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...DEWPOINTS
STILL ON THE LOWER SIDE OF WHAT THEY COULD BE. HEAT WAVE BEGINS
SUNDAY OR MONDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND PROBABLY
EXTENDS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. OUR MAX HEAT INDEX FORECAST
RIGHT NOW IS IN THE MID 90S.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...VARIABLE CIRRUS, ESPECIALLY KPHL SOUTH OTHERWISE
FAIR. LIGHT WIND. SMALL CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM NW OF I-95, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE APPEARING TO BE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN MONROE
AND SUSSEX COUNTIES OF NE PA AND NW NJ. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH AND BECOMING SUNNY NORTH (CI FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR FL).  HOT, ESPECIALLY KPHL NORTH.  WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY 20 MPH DURING THE
EVENING I-95 EASTWARD. SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON TSTM E PA OR
THE N 2/3RDS NJ AHEAD A WEAK WIND SHIFT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...SUNNY AND HOT.  LIGHT N TO NW WIND, GUSTS UNDER 15 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT. COULD BE A PERIOD OF THICK
CIRRUS. LIGHT SW WIND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND HOT. LIGHT NW WIND. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAX TEMPS DEPEND IN PART ON THE COLD FRONTAL
POSITION AND THE STRENGTH OF GEFS ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE WARMER THAN
NORMAL ATLANTIC WATERS. COULD STILL BE HOT IN THE INTERIOR? LOOKS
TO BE MORE HUMID WITH THE OCEAN INFLOW OFF THE SSTS IN THE 70S.
EVENTUALLY A CHANCE OF TSTMS? PROBABLY MOST FAVORED IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF E PA AND NW NJ BUT RATHER FAR IN THE FUTURE TO BE CONFIDENT.
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE (POSITION OF COLD FRONT).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AT AROUND 5000 FEET.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS. A SEA BREEZE SHOULD TURN THE
WINDS MORE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT KACY, WITH THIS ALSO
OCCURRING AT KILG DUE TO A BAY BREEZE.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH REMAINING CUMULUS DISSIPATING IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED MVFR FOG TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
MOST TERMINALS, TO LOCALLY CALM.

SUNDAY...PERHAPS LOCALIZED MVFR FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR WITH SOME
CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10
KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND PERHAPS KILG DUE
TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR MAINLY CIRRUS.  LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH
COUNTRYSIDE FOG MONDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE
VCNTY KMPO/KABE DURING THE EVENING?

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15-20 KT
16Z THROUGH 00Z/1. SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSTMS KPHL NORTHWARD.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

MONDAY NIGHT... VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH COUNTRYSIDE FOG
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WIND TURNING NW-N LATE. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT N TO NW WIND...GUSTS
UNDER 15 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT SW WIND. ANOTHER
BATCH OF CIRRUS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W WIND BECOMING N OR NW. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.



&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR A
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, SOME INCREASE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING MOSTLY DUE TO A SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE NEARSHORE.
THIS MAY ALSO OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT- THURSDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND/OR MONDAY EVENING, OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 11 SECONDS/ EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES
INTO TONIGHT, WITH SEAS IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE. A FULL MOON
/HIGHER TIDE LEVELS/ AND A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR TRICKY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE SURF ZONE ESPECIALLY FOR NEW JERSEY. AS A
RESULT A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY COAST CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER A LOW RISK IS
MAINTAINED FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...APPEARS TO BE LOW ENHANCED WITH RESIDUAL IMPACT FROM TODAYS
3 FT 11 SECOND SE SWELL BUT THE SWELL SHOULD BE SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT
ON SUNDAY. STILL FULL MOON IMPACT SO LARGER THAN NORMAL TIDAL
EXCHANGE.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE A DAILY LOW
RISK. THE RISK MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY NEXT FRIDAY-SATURDAY DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AND SIZE-PERIOD OF THE SWELL.

CONCERN: ABOVE NORMAL SST`S (UPPER 70S) AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THIS LAST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER AND FOLKS BEING TOO CASUAL SINCE THE
RC RISK IS LOW. FOR GREATEST SAFETY... SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFE GUARDS AND DURING THEIR COVERAGE HOURS. SWIMMING AT JETTIES,
PIERS, GROINS IS ILL ADVISED SINCE RIP CURRENTS REPEATEDLY FORM
THERE. SWIMMING AT NIGHT OR NOT IN SIGHT OF LIFE GUARDS IS RISKY.
WATER TROUBLE CAN QUICKLY TURN TO RECOVERY INSTEAD OF RESCUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE HAVE LOOKED AT RECORDS FOR NEXT WEEK (NEAR 100F IN 1953) AND SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH IN A HEAT WAVE OCCURS NEXT WEEK,
NOT ENOUGH HEAT IS INDICATED TO CHALLENGE THE RECORDS. RECORD HIGHS
NEXT FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE LOWER BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH ONSHORE
FLOW PREVAILS, THEREFORE KEEPING IT COOLER THAN RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 350
NEAR TERM...GORSE 350
SHORT TERM...GORSE 350
LONG TERM...DRAG 350
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 350
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 350
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE/DRAG 350
CLIMATE...DRAG 350





000
FXUS61 KPHI 291950
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THURSDAY WITH A HEAT WAVE LIKELY. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTH INTO OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY WITH A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
DOMINANT OVER COASTAL EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE, AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME. MEANWHILE, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DOMINATED BY THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH,
THEREFORE A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED.

THE CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, THEN MOSTLY SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AROUND AT TIMES. THE LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW COMBINED WITH
AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN A SEA
BREEZE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND SOME BEFORE WASHING OUT
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS HELPED TO INCREASE THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS SOME, ALTHOUGH SOME LOWERING IN SPOTS HAS BEEN
NOTED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND SOME MIXING.
THESE SHOULD EDGE UP A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COOLING OCCURS AND
THE MOISTURE STARTS TO POOL CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE. THIS COULD ALSO
LEAD TO GROUND FOG IN LOCALIZED SPOTS.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED MAINLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND
THESE ARE A LITTLE HIGHER OVERALL WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE DEW
POINTS WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE ARRIVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY, AND AS IT DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME MOISTURE
ON THE INCREASE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT TO OUR WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY CAN BE
MAINTAINED AS IT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES MAINLY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING, WITH THIS PROBABLY BETTER ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS MOSTLY SHOW A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE
WHICH TENDS TO KEEP UPDRAFTS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST
DURING PEAK HEATING, HOWEVER TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH COULD COME INTO PLAY AND THEREFORE WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC
POP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

IT WILL BE RATHER WARM TO HOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, HOWEVER DEW
POINTS MAY BE HIGHER IN THE MORNING DUE TO HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALLOWING FOR SOME DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT TIGHT, THEREFORE LIGHT
ENOUGH FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA BREEZE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN MOS BLEND THEN MADE
SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: A RIDGE OF WARM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA DEVELOPS
NORTHWESTWARD THIS WEEK WHILE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS LODGED
VICINITY OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 28TH AVERAGED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES BELOW NORMAL.
KTTN, KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING 1 TO ~2F ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR
DAY DEPARTURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL WARM THE MONTHLY AVERAGES
COMPARED TO NORMAL. AS IT STANDS FROM THE 12Z/29 MODEL GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 6 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY-
THURSDAY. THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY-
SATURDAY BEHIND A SOUTHWARD DRIFTING COLD FRONT AND THERE IS NO
CERTAINTY THAT THAT COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY. IT COULD BE DELAYED
OR LESS EFFECTIVELY COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE OUTCOME IS IN PART DEPENDENT ON THE AMPLITUDE AND
LONGITUDE OF A TROUGH EAST OF THE MARITIMES LATE THIS COMING WEEK.

THE GREATEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD
RESIDE NEAR AND N OF I-78.

FORECAST BASIS:  UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT - FAVORING THE WARMER OF THE AVBL
GUIDANCE SINCE THE 12Z NCEP AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS ARE RATHER WARM
AND 850 TEMPS 16-18C. THE 12Z/29 MEX MOS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
THEN THE 1521Z/29 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD.

HAZARDS THROUGH DAY 7: OTHER THAN RIP CURRENT MODERATE RISK
TODAY-THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY AND THE END OF OF NEXT WEEK;  ITS
ABOUT A PROBABLE HEAT WAVE AND HOW LONG. FOR NOW, THE MAX HEAT
INDEX IS FORECAST TO BE REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...DEWPOINTS
STILL ON THE LOWER SIDE OF WHAT THEY COULD BE. HEAT WAVE BEGINS
SUNDAY OR MONDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND PROBABLY
EXTENDS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. OUR MAX HEAT INDEX FORECAST
RIGHT NOW IS IN THE MID 90S.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...VARIABLE CIRRUS, ESPECIALLY KPHL SOUTH OTHERWISE
FAIR. LIGHT WIND. SMALL CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM NW OF I-95, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE APPEARING TO BE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN MONROE
AND SUSSEX COUNTIES OF NE PA AND NW NJ. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH AND BECOMING SUNNY NORTH (CI FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR FL).  HOT, ESPECIALLY KPHL NORTH.  WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY 20 MPH DURING THE
EVENING I-95 EASTWARD. SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON TSTM E PA OR
THE N 2/3RDS NJ AHEAD A WEAK WIND SHIFT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...SUNNY AND HOT.  LIGHT N TO NW WIND, GUSTS UNDER 15 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT. COULD BE A PERIOD OF THICK
CIRRUS. LIGHT SW WIND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND HOT. LIGHT NW WIND. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAX TEMPS DEPEND IN PART ON THE COLD FRONTAL
POSITION AND THE STRENGTH OF GEFS ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE WARMER THAN
NORMAL ATLANTIC WATERS. COULD STILL BE HOT IN THE INTERIOR? LOOKS
TO BE MORE HUMID WITH THE OCEAN INFLOW OFF THE SSTS IN THE 70S.
EVENTUALLY A CHANCE OF TSTMS? PROBABLY MOST FAVORED IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF E PA AND NW NJ BUT RATHER FAR IN THE FUTURE TO BE CONFIDENT.
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE (POSITION OF COLD FRONT).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AT AROUND 5000 FEET.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS. A SEA BREEZE SHOULD TURN THE
WINDS MORE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT KACY, WITH THIS ALSO
OCCURRING AT KILG DUE TO A BAY BREEZE.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH REMAINING CUMULUS DISSIPATING IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED MVFR FOG TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
MOST TERMINALS, TO LOCALLY CALM.

SUNDAY...PERHAPS LOCALIZED MVFR FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR WITH SOME
CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10
KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND PERHAPS KILG DUE
TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR MAINLY CIRRUS.  LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH
COUNTRYSIDE FOG MONDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE
VCNTY KMPO/KABE DURING THE EVENING?

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15-20 KT
16Z THROUGH 00Z/1. SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSTMS KPHL NORTHWARD.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

MONDAY NIGHT... VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH COUNTRYSIDE FOG
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WIND TURNING NW-N LATE. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT N TO NW WIND...GUSTS
UNDER 15 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT SW WIND. ANOTHER
BATCH OF CIRRUS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W WIND BECOMING N OR NW. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.



&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR A
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, SOME INCREASE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING MOSTLY DUE TO A SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE NEARSHORE.
THIS MAY ALSO OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT- THURSDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND/OR MONDAY EVENING, OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 11 SECONDS/ EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES
INTO TONIGHT, WITH SEAS IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE. A FULL MOON
/HIGHER TIDE LEVELS/ AND A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR TRICKY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE SURF ZONE ESPECIALLY FOR NEW JERSEY. AS A
RESULT A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY COAST CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER A LOW RISK IS
MAINTAINED FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...APPEARS TO BE LOW ENHANCED WITH RESIDUAL IMPACT FROM TODAYS
3 FT 11 SECOND SE SWELL BUT THE SWELL SHOULD BE SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT
ON SUNDAY. STILL FULL MOON IMPACT SO LARGER THAN NORMAL TIDAL
EXCHANGE.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE A DAILY LOW
RISK. THE RISK MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY NEXT FRIDAY-SATURDAY DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AND SIZE-PERIOD OF THE SWELL.

CONCERN: ABOVE NORMAL SST`S (UPPER 70S) AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THIS LAST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER AND FOLKS BEING TOO CASUAL SINCE THE
RC RISK IS LOW. FOR GREATEST SAFETY... SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFE GUARDS AND DURING THEIR COVERAGE HOURS. SWIMMING AT JETTIES,
PIERS, GROINS IS ILL ADVISED SINCE RIP CURRENTS REPEATEDLY FORM
THERE. SWIMMING AT NIGHT OR NOT IN SIGHT OF LIFE GUARDS IS RISKY.
WATER TROUBLE CAN QUICKLY TURN TO RECOVERY INSTEAD OF RESCUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE HAVE LOOKED AT RECORDS FOR NEXT WEEK (NEAR 100F IN 1953) AND SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH IN A HEAT WAVE OCCURS NEXT WEEK,
NOT ENOUGH HEAT IS INDICATED TO CHALLENGE THE RECORDS. RECORD HIGHS
NEXT FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE LOWER BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH ONSHORE
FLOW PREVAILS, THEREFORE KEEPING IT COOLER THAN RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 350
NEAR TERM...GORSE 350
SHORT TERM...GORSE 350
LONG TERM...DRAG 350
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 350
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 350
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE/DRAG 350
CLIMATE...DRAG 350





000
FXUS61 KPHI 291950
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO
THURSDAY WITH A HEAT WAVE LIKELY. A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE
SOUTH INTO OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY WITH A COOLER ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
DOMINANT OVER COASTAL EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE, AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME. MEANWHILE, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DOMINATED BY THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH,
THEREFORE A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED.

THE CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, THEN MOSTLY SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AROUND AT TIMES. THE LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW COMBINED WITH
AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN A SEA
BREEZE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND SOME BEFORE WASHING OUT
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS HELPED TO INCREASE THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS SOME, ALTHOUGH SOME LOWERING IN SPOTS HAS BEEN
NOTED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND SOME MIXING.
THESE SHOULD EDGE UP A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COOLING OCCURS AND
THE MOISTURE STARTS TO POOL CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE. THIS COULD ALSO
LEAD TO GROUND FOG IN LOCALIZED SPOTS.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED MAINLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND
THESE ARE A LITTLE HIGHER OVERALL WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE DEW
POINTS WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE ARRIVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY, AND AS IT DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME MOISTURE
ON THE INCREASE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT TO OUR WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY CAN BE
MAINTAINED AS IT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES MAINLY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING, WITH THIS PROBABLY BETTER ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS MOSTLY SHOW A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE
WHICH TENDS TO KEEP UPDRAFTS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST
DURING PEAK HEATING, HOWEVER TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH COULD COME INTO PLAY AND THEREFORE WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC
POP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

IT WILL BE RATHER WARM TO HOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, HOWEVER DEW
POINTS MAY BE HIGHER IN THE MORNING DUE TO HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALLOWING FOR SOME DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT TIGHT, THEREFORE LIGHT
ENOUGH FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA BREEZE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN MOS BLEND THEN MADE
SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: A RIDGE OF WARM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA DEVELOPS
NORTHWESTWARD THIS WEEK WHILE A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS LODGED
VICINITY OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES: AUGUST THROUGH THE 28TH AVERAGED NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.
KMPO AND KGED WERE THE ONLY TWO OF THE 8 CLIMATE SITES BELOW NORMAL.
KTTN, KACY AND KPHL WERE AVERAGING 1 TO ~2F ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR
DAY DEPARTURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL WARM THE MONTHLY AVERAGES
COMPARED TO NORMAL. AS IT STANDS FROM THE 12Z/29 MODEL GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 6 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY-
THURSDAY. THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT COOLING OCCURS FRIDAY-
SATURDAY BEHIND A SOUTHWARD DRIFTING COLD FRONT AND THERE IS NO
CERTAINTY THAT THAT COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY. IT COULD BE DELAYED
OR LESS EFFECTIVELY COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE OUTCOME IS IN PART DEPENDENT ON THE AMPLITUDE AND
LONGITUDE OF A TROUGH EAST OF THE MARITIMES LATE THIS COMING WEEK.

THE GREATEST POSITIVE DEPARTURES WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY SHOULD
RESIDE NEAR AND N OF I-78.

FORECAST BASIS:  UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT - FAVORING THE WARMER OF THE AVBL
GUIDANCE SINCE THE 12Z NCEP AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS ARE RATHER WARM
AND 850 TEMPS 16-18C. THE 12Z/29 MEX MOS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
THEN THE 1521Z/29 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD.

HAZARDS THROUGH DAY 7: OTHER THAN RIP CURRENT MODERATE RISK
TODAY-THEN POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY AND THE END OF OF NEXT WEEK;  ITS
ABOUT A PROBABLE HEAT WAVE AND HOW LONG. FOR NOW, THE MAX HEAT
INDEX IS FORECAST TO BE REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...DEWPOINTS
STILL ON THE LOWER SIDE OF WHAT THEY COULD BE. HEAT WAVE BEGINS
SUNDAY OR MONDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND PROBABLY
EXTENDS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. OUR MAX HEAT INDEX FORECAST
RIGHT NOW IS IN THE MID 90S.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY NIGHT...VARIABLE CIRRUS, ESPECIALLY KPHL SOUTH OTHERWISE
FAIR. LIGHT WIND. SMALL CHC OF A SHOWER OR TSTM NW OF I-95, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE APPEARING TO BE THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IN MONROE
AND SUSSEX COUNTIES OF NE PA AND NW NJ. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY SOUTH AND BECOMING SUNNY NORTH (CI FROM
TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR FL).  HOT, ESPECIALLY KPHL NORTH.  WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY 20 MPH DURING THE
EVENING I-95 EASTWARD. SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON TSTM E PA OR
THE N 2/3RDS NJ AHEAD A WEAK WIND SHIFT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...SUNNY AND HOT.  LIGHT N TO NW WIND, GUSTS UNDER 15 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT. COULD BE A PERIOD OF THICK
CIRRUS. LIGHT SW WIND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND HOT. LIGHT NW WIND. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MAX TEMPS DEPEND IN PART ON THE COLD FRONTAL
POSITION AND THE STRENGTH OF GEFS ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE WARMER THAN
NORMAL ATLANTIC WATERS. COULD STILL BE HOT IN THE INTERIOR? LOOKS
TO BE MORE HUMID WITH THE OCEAN INFLOW OFF THE SSTS IN THE 70S.
EVENTUALLY A CHANCE OF TSTMS? PROBABLY MOST FAVORED IN THE UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF E PA AND NW NJ BUT RATHER FAR IN THE FUTURE TO BE CONFIDENT.
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE (POSITION OF COLD FRONT).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AT AROUND 5000 FEET.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS. A SEA BREEZE SHOULD TURN THE
WINDS MORE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT KACY, WITH THIS ALSO
OCCURRING AT KILG DUE TO A BAY BREEZE.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH REMAINING CUMULUS DISSIPATING IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED MVFR FOG TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
MOST TERMINALS, TO LOCALLY CALM.

SUNDAY...PERHAPS LOCALIZED MVFR FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR WITH SOME
CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10
KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND PERHAPS KILG DUE
TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR MAINLY CIRRUS.  LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH
COUNTRYSIDE FOG MONDAY MORNING. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE
VCNTY KMPO/KABE DURING THE EVENING?

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15-20 KT
16Z THROUGH 00Z/1. SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSTMS KPHL NORTHWARD.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

MONDAY NIGHT... VFR. LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH COUNTRYSIDE FOG
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WIND TURNING NW-N LATE. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT N TO NW WIND...GUSTS
UNDER 15 KT. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT SW WIND. ANOTHER
BATCH OF CIRRUS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

THURSDAY...VFR. LIGHT W WIND BECOMING N OR NW. CONFIDENCE:
AVERAGE.



&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR A
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, SOME INCREASE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING MOSTLY DUE TO A SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE NEARSHORE.
THIS MAY ALSO OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT- THURSDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND/OR MONDAY EVENING, OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE NORMAL. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 11 SECONDS/ EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES
INTO TONIGHT, WITH SEAS IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE. A FULL MOON
/HIGHER TIDE LEVELS/ AND A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR TRICKY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE SURF ZONE ESPECIALLY FOR NEW JERSEY. AS A
RESULT A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY COAST CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER A LOW RISK IS
MAINTAINED FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...APPEARS TO BE LOW ENHANCED WITH RESIDUAL IMPACT FROM TODAYS
3 FT 11 SECOND SE SWELL BUT THE SWELL SHOULD BE SUBSIDING SOMEWHAT
ON SUNDAY. STILL FULL MOON IMPACT SO LARGER THAN NORMAL TIDAL
EXCHANGE.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE A DAILY LOW
RISK. THE RISK MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY NEXT FRIDAY-SATURDAY DEPENDING
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AND SIZE-PERIOD OF THE SWELL.

CONCERN: ABOVE NORMAL SST`S (UPPER 70S) AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THIS LAST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER AND FOLKS BEING TOO CASUAL SINCE THE
RC RISK IS LOW. FOR GREATEST SAFETY... SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFE GUARDS AND DURING THEIR COVERAGE HOURS. SWIMMING AT JETTIES,
PIERS, GROINS IS ILL ADVISED SINCE RIP CURRENTS REPEATEDLY FORM
THERE. SWIMMING AT NIGHT OR NOT IN SIGHT OF LIFE GUARDS IS RISKY.
WATER TROUBLE CAN QUICKLY TURN TO RECOVERY INSTEAD OF RESCUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE HAVE LOOKED AT RECORDS FOR NEXT WEEK (NEAR 100F IN 1953) AND SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH IN A HEAT WAVE OCCURS NEXT WEEK,
NOT ENOUGH HEAT IS INDICATED TO CHALLENGE THE RECORDS. RECORD HIGHS
NEXT FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE LOWER BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH ONSHORE
FLOW PREVAILS, THEREFORE KEEPING IT COOLER THAN RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 350
NEAR TERM...GORSE 350
SHORT TERM...GORSE 350
LONG TERM...DRAG 350
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 350
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 350
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE/DRAG 350
CLIMATE...DRAG 350




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291846
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
246 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERALL THOUGH WILL TEND TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY SLIDE INTO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE, AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME. MEANWHILE, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DOMINATED BY THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH,
THEREFORE A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED.

THE CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, THEN MOSTLY SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AROUND AT TIMES. THE LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW COMBINED WITH
AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN A SEA
BREEZE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND SOME BEFORE WASHING OUT
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS HELPED TO INCREASE THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS SOME, ALTHOUGH SOME LOWERING IN SPOTS HAS BEEN
NOTED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND SOME MIXING.
THESE SHOULD EDGE UP A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COOLING OCCURS AND
THE MOISTURE STARTS TO POOL CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE. THIS COULD ALSO
LEAD TO GROUND FOG IN LOCALIZED SPOTS.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED MAINLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND
THESE ARE A LITTLE HIGHER OVERALL WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE DEW
POINTS WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE ARRIVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY, AND AS IT DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME MOISTURE
ON THE INCREASE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT TO OUR WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY CAN BE
MAINTAINED AS IT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES MAINLY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING, WITH THIS PROBABLY BETTER ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS MOSTLY SHOW A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE
WHICH TENDS TO KEEP UPDRAFTS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST
DURING PEAK HEATING, HOWEVER TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH COULD COME INTO PLAY AND THEREFORE WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC
POP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

IT WILL BE RATHER WARM TO HOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, HOWEVER DEW
POINTS MAY BE HIGHER IN THE MORNING DUE TO HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALLOWING FOR SOME DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT TIGHT, THEREFORE LIGHT
ENOUGH FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA BREEZE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN MOS BLEND THEN MADE
SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM ISN`T MUCH MORE EXCITING THAN THE SHORT OR NEAR
TERM, WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOSTLY THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE REGION, BUT IT SHOULD BE FILLING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO.
THUS, CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA ARE SLIM, SO HAVE
KEPT THE PERIOD DRY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH BUILDS FURTHER EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD SHOWN DIGGING
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED,
MEANING RAIN CHANCES HAVE ALSO DECREASED. SO HAVE CHANGED THE
FORECAST TO HAVE NO MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME. WITH THE
HIGH BUILDING IN, 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND DESPITE THE
LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE IN FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE FRONT SHOULD BE SLOWING
AS FRONTOLYSIS BEGINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND. HOWEVER, THE FRONT COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE LEADING TO SOME RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AT AROUND 5000 FEET.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS. A SEA BREEZE SHOULD TURN THE
WINDS MORE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT KACY, WITH THIS ALSO
OCCURRING AT KILG DUE TO A BAY BREEZE.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH REMAINING CUMULUS DISSIPATING IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED MVFR FOG TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
MOST TERMINALS, TO LOCALLY CALM.

SUNDAY...PERHAPS LOCALIZED MVFR FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR WITH SOME
CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10
KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND PERHAPS KILG DUE
TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED,
LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH BR EACH MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR A
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, SOME INCREASE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING MOSTLY DUE TO A SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE NEARSHORE.
THIS MAY ALSO OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING,
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 11 SECONDS/ EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES
INTO TONIGHT, WITH SEAS IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE. A FULL MOON
/HIGHER TIDE LEVELS/ AND A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR TRICKY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE SURF ZONE ESPECIALLY FOR NEW JERSEY. AS A
RESULT A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY COAST CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER A LOW RISK IS
MAINTAINED FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...APPEARS TO BE LOW ENHANCED WITH RESIDUAL IMPACT FROM TODAYS
3 FT 11-12 SECOND SE SWELL BUT THE SWELL SHOULD BE SUBSIDING
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY. STILL FULL MOON IMPACT SO LARGER THAN NORMAL
TIDAL EXCHANGE.

MONDAY AND ONWARD FOR NEXT WEEK...CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE A DAILY
LOW RISK.

CONCERN: ABOVE NORMAL SST`S (UPPER 70S) AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THIS LAST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER AND FOLKS BEING TOO CASUAL SINCE THE
RC RISK IS LOW. FOR GREATEST SAFETY... SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFE GUARDS AND DURING THEIR COVERAGE HOURS. SWIMMING AT JETTIES,
PIERS, GROINS IS ILL ADVISED SINCE RC REPEATEDLY FORM THERE.
SWIMMING AT NIGHT OR NOT IN SIGHT OF LIFE GUARDS IS RISKY. WATER
TROUBLE CAN QUICKLY TURN TO RECOVERY INSTEAD OF RESCUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE HAVE LOOKED AT RECORDS FOR NEXT WEEK (NEAR 100F IN 1953) AND SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH IN A HEAT WAVE OCCURRING NEXT WEEK,
NOT ENOUGH HEAT IS INDICATED TO CHALLENGE THE RECORDS. RECORD
HIGHS NEXT FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE LOWER BUT NOT SURE IF
ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS, THEREFORE KEEPING IT COOLER THAN RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291846
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
246 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERALL THOUGH WILL TEND TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY SLIDE INTO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE, AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME. MEANWHILE, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DOMINATED BY THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH,
THEREFORE A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED.

THE CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, THEN MOSTLY SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AROUND AT TIMES. THE LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW COMBINED WITH
AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN A SEA
BREEZE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND SOME BEFORE WASHING OUT
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS HELPED TO INCREASE THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS SOME, ALTHOUGH SOME LOWERING IN SPOTS HAS BEEN
NOTED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND SOME MIXING.
THESE SHOULD EDGE UP A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COOLING OCCURS AND
THE MOISTURE STARTS TO POOL CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE. THIS COULD ALSO
LEAD TO GROUND FOG IN LOCALIZED SPOTS.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED MAINLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND
THESE ARE A LITTLE HIGHER OVERALL WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE DEW
POINTS WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE ARRIVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY, AND AS IT DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME MOISTURE
ON THE INCREASE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT TO OUR WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY CAN BE
MAINTAINED AS IT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES MAINLY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING, WITH THIS PROBABLY BETTER ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS MOSTLY SHOW A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE
WHICH TENDS TO KEEP UPDRAFTS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST
DURING PEAK HEATING, HOWEVER TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH COULD COME INTO PLAY AND THEREFORE WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC
POP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

IT WILL BE RATHER WARM TO HOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, HOWEVER DEW
POINTS MAY BE HIGHER IN THE MORNING DUE TO HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALLOWING FOR SOME DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT TIGHT, THEREFORE LIGHT
ENOUGH FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA BREEZE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN MOS BLEND THEN MADE
SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM ISN`T MUCH MORE EXCITING THAN THE SHORT OR NEAR
TERM, WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOSTLY THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE REGION, BUT IT SHOULD BE FILLING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO.
THUS, CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA ARE SLIM, SO HAVE
KEPT THE PERIOD DRY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH BUILDS FURTHER EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD SHOWN DIGGING
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED,
MEANING RAIN CHANCES HAVE ALSO DECREASED. SO HAVE CHANGED THE
FORECAST TO HAVE NO MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME. WITH THE
HIGH BUILDING IN, 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND DESPITE THE
LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE IN FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE FRONT SHOULD BE SLOWING
AS FRONTOLYSIS BEGINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND. HOWEVER, THE FRONT COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE LEADING TO SOME RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AT AROUND 5000 FEET.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS. A SEA BREEZE SHOULD TURN THE
WINDS MORE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT KACY, WITH THIS ALSO
OCCURRING AT KILG DUE TO A BAY BREEZE.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH REMAINING CUMULUS DISSIPATING IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED MVFR FOG TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
MOST TERMINALS, TO LOCALLY CALM.

SUNDAY...PERHAPS LOCALIZED MVFR FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR WITH SOME
CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10
KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND PERHAPS KILG DUE
TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED,
LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH BR EACH MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR A
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, SOME INCREASE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING MOSTLY DUE TO A SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE NEARSHORE.
THIS MAY ALSO OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING,
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 11 SECONDS/ EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES
INTO TONIGHT, WITH SEAS IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE. A FULL MOON
/HIGHER TIDE LEVELS/ AND A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR TRICKY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE SURF ZONE ESPECIALLY FOR NEW JERSEY. AS A
RESULT A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY COAST CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER A LOW RISK IS
MAINTAINED FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...APPEARS TO BE LOW ENHANCED WITH RESIDUAL IMPACT FROM TODAYS
3 FT 11-12 SECOND SE SWELL BUT THE SWELL SHOULD BE SUBSIDING
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY. STILL FULL MOON IMPACT SO LARGER THAN NORMAL
TIDAL EXCHANGE.

MONDAY AND ONWARD FOR NEXT WEEK...CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE A DAILY
LOW RISK.

CONCERN: ABOVE NORMAL SST`S (UPPER 70S) AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THIS LAST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER AND FOLKS BEING TOO CASUAL SINCE THE
RC RISK IS LOW. FOR GREATEST SAFETY... SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFE GUARDS AND DURING THEIR COVERAGE HOURS. SWIMMING AT JETTIES,
PIERS, GROINS IS ILL ADVISED SINCE RC REPEATEDLY FORM THERE.
SWIMMING AT NIGHT OR NOT IN SIGHT OF LIFE GUARDS IS RISKY. WATER
TROUBLE CAN QUICKLY TURN TO RECOVERY INSTEAD OF RESCUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE HAVE LOOKED AT RECORDS FOR NEXT WEEK (NEAR 100F IN 1953) AND SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH IN A HEAT WAVE OCCURRING NEXT WEEK,
NOT ENOUGH HEAT IS INDICATED TO CHALLENGE THE RECORDS. RECORD
HIGHS NEXT FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE LOWER BUT NOT SURE IF
ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS, THEREFORE KEEPING IT COOLER THAN RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 291846
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
246 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERALL THOUGH WILL TEND TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY SLIDE INTO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE, AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME. MEANWHILE, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DOMINATED BY THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH,
THEREFORE A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED.

THE CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, THEN MOSTLY SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AROUND AT TIMES. THE LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW COMBINED WITH
AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN A SEA
BREEZE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND SOME BEFORE WASHING OUT
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS HELPED TO INCREASE THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS SOME, ALTHOUGH SOME LOWERING IN SPOTS HAS BEEN
NOTED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND SOME MIXING.
THESE SHOULD EDGE UP A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COOLING OCCURS AND
THE MOISTURE STARTS TO POOL CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE. THIS COULD ALSO
LEAD TO GROUND FOG IN LOCALIZED SPOTS.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED MAINLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND
THESE ARE A LITTLE HIGHER OVERALL WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE DEW
POINTS WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE ARRIVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY, AND AS IT DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME MOISTURE
ON THE INCREASE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT TO OUR WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY CAN BE
MAINTAINED AS IT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES MAINLY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING, WITH THIS PROBABLY BETTER ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS MOSTLY SHOW A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE
WHICH TENDS TO KEEP UPDRAFTS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST
DURING PEAK HEATING, HOWEVER TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH COULD COME INTO PLAY AND THEREFORE WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC
POP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

IT WILL BE RATHER WARM TO HOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, HOWEVER DEW
POINTS MAY BE HIGHER IN THE MORNING DUE TO HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALLOWING FOR SOME DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT TIGHT, THEREFORE LIGHT
ENOUGH FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA BREEZE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN MOS BLEND THEN MADE
SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM ISN`T MUCH MORE EXCITING THAN THE SHORT OR NEAR
TERM, WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOSTLY THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE REGION, BUT IT SHOULD BE FILLING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO.
THUS, CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA ARE SLIM, SO HAVE
KEPT THE PERIOD DRY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH BUILDS FURTHER EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD SHOWN DIGGING
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED,
MEANING RAIN CHANCES HAVE ALSO DECREASED. SO HAVE CHANGED THE
FORECAST TO HAVE NO MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME. WITH THE
HIGH BUILDING IN, 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND DESPITE THE
LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE IN FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE FRONT SHOULD BE SLOWING
AS FRONTOLYSIS BEGINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND. HOWEVER, THE FRONT COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE LEADING TO SOME RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AT AROUND 5000 FEET.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS. A SEA BREEZE SHOULD TURN THE
WINDS MORE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT KACY, WITH THIS ALSO
OCCURRING AT KILG DUE TO A BAY BREEZE.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH REMAINING CUMULUS DISSIPATING IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED MVFR FOG TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
MOST TERMINALS, TO LOCALLY CALM.

SUNDAY...PERHAPS LOCALIZED MVFR FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR WITH SOME
CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10
KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND PERHAPS KILG DUE
TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED,
LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH BR EACH MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR A
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, SOME INCREASE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING MOSTLY DUE TO A SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE NEARSHORE.
THIS MAY ALSO OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING,
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 11 SECONDS/ EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES
INTO TONIGHT, WITH SEAS IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE. A FULL MOON
/HIGHER TIDE LEVELS/ AND A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR TRICKY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE SURF ZONE ESPECIALLY FOR NEW JERSEY. AS A
RESULT A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY COAST CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER A LOW RISK IS
MAINTAINED FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...APPEARS TO BE LOW ENHANCED WITH RESIDUAL IMPACT FROM TODAYS
3 FT 11-12 SECOND SE SWELL BUT THE SWELL SHOULD BE SUBSIDING
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY. STILL FULL MOON IMPACT SO LARGER THAN NORMAL
TIDAL EXCHANGE.

MONDAY AND ONWARD FOR NEXT WEEK...CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE A DAILY
LOW RISK.

CONCERN: ABOVE NORMAL SST`S (UPPER 70S) AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THIS LAST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER AND FOLKS BEING TOO CASUAL SINCE THE
RC RISK IS LOW. FOR GREATEST SAFETY... SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFE GUARDS AND DURING THEIR COVERAGE HOURS. SWIMMING AT JETTIES,
PIERS, GROINS IS ILL ADVISED SINCE RC REPEATEDLY FORM THERE.
SWIMMING AT NIGHT OR NOT IN SIGHT OF LIFE GUARDS IS RISKY. WATER
TROUBLE CAN QUICKLY TURN TO RECOVERY INSTEAD OF RESCUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE HAVE LOOKED AT RECORDS FOR NEXT WEEK (NEAR 100F IN 1953) AND SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH IN A HEAT WAVE OCCURRING NEXT WEEK,
NOT ENOUGH HEAT IS INDICATED TO CHALLENGE THE RECORDS. RECORD
HIGHS NEXT FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE LOWER BUT NOT SURE IF
ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS, THEREFORE KEEPING IT COOLER THAN RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291846
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
246 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERALL THOUGH WILL TEND TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY SLIDE INTO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME
MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE, AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME. MEANWHILE, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. OUR WEATHER THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY DOMINATED BY THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH,
THEREFORE A DRY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED.

THE CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN AND DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING, THEN MOSTLY SOME HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AROUND AT TIMES. THE LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW COMBINED WITH
AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN A SEA
BREEZE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND SOME BEFORE WASHING OUT
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS HELPED TO INCREASE THE
SURFACE DEW POINTS SOME, ALTHOUGH SOME LOWERING IN SPOTS HAS BEEN
NOTED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND SOME MIXING.
THESE SHOULD EDGE UP A BIT THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COOLING OCCURS AND
THE MOISTURE STARTS TO POOL CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE. THIS COULD ALSO
LEAD TO GROUND FOG IN LOCALIZED SPOTS.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, WE USED MAINLY A NAM/GFS MOS BLEND AND
THESE ARE A LITTLE HIGHER OVERALL WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE DEW
POINTS WILL BE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE ARRIVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SUNDAY, AND AS IT DOES IT SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD
FRONT AT THE SURFACE IS TIED TO THIS FEATURE, AND WITH SOME MOISTURE
ON THE INCREASE THERE SHOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
IT TO OUR WEST. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY CAN BE
MAINTAINED AS IT APPROACHES OUR WESTERN ZONES MAINLY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING, WITH THIS PROBABLY BETTER ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES.
HOWEVER, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS MOSTLY SHOW A SKINNY CAPE PROFILE
WHICH TENDS TO KEEP UPDRAFTS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. THE BULK OF THE
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR WEST
DURING PEAK HEATING, HOWEVER TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH COULD COME INTO PLAY AND THEREFORE WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHC
POP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

IT WILL BE RATHER WARM TO HOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, HOWEVER DEW
POINTS MAY BE HIGHER IN THE MORNING DUE TO HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALLOWING FOR SOME DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT TIGHT, THEREFORE LIGHT
ENOUGH FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA BREEZE ONCE AGAIN IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED AN EVEN MOS BLEND THEN MADE
SOME LOCAL TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM ISN`T MUCH MORE EXCITING THAN THE SHORT OR NEAR
TERM, WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOSTLY THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE REGION, BUT IT SHOULD BE FILLING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO.
THUS, CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA ARE SLIM, SO HAVE
KEPT THE PERIOD DRY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH BUILDS FURTHER EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD SHOWN DIGGING
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED,
MEANING RAIN CHANCES HAVE ALSO DECREASED. SO HAVE CHANGED THE
FORECAST TO HAVE NO MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME. WITH THE
HIGH BUILDING IN, 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND DESPITE THE
LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE IN FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE FRONT SHOULD BE SLOWING
AS FRONTOLYSIS BEGINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND. HOWEVER, THE FRONT COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE LEADING TO SOME RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AT AROUND 5000 FEET.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS. A SEA BREEZE SHOULD TURN THE
WINDS MORE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT KACY, WITH THIS ALSO
OCCURRING AT KILG DUE TO A BAY BREEZE.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH REMAINING CUMULUS DISSIPATING IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED MVFR FOG TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHWEST OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
MOST TERMINALS, TO LOCALLY CALM.

SUNDAY...PERHAPS LOCALIZED MVFR FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR WITH SOME
CUMULUS AROUND 5000 FEET. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10
KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AT KACY AND PERHAPS KILG DUE
TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED,
LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH BR EACH MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING MORE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW FOR A
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, SOME INCREASE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING MOSTLY DUE TO A SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE NEARSHORE.
THIS MAY ALSO OCCUR AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR
LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING,
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 11 SECONDS/ EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES
INTO TONIGHT, WITH SEAS IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE. A FULL MOON
/HIGHER TIDE LEVELS/ AND A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR TRICKY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE SURF ZONE ESPECIALLY FOR NEW JERSEY. AS A
RESULT A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY COAST CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER A LOW RISK IS
MAINTAINED FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...APPEARS TO BE LOW ENHANCED WITH RESIDUAL IMPACT FROM TODAYS
3 FT 11-12 SECOND SE SWELL BUT THE SWELL SHOULD BE SUBSIDING
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY. STILL FULL MOON IMPACT SO LARGER THAN NORMAL
TIDAL EXCHANGE.

MONDAY AND ONWARD FOR NEXT WEEK...CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE A DAILY
LOW RISK.

CONCERN: ABOVE NORMAL SST`S (UPPER 70S) AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THIS LAST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER AND FOLKS BEING TOO CASUAL SINCE THE
RC RISK IS LOW. FOR GREATEST SAFETY... SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFE GUARDS AND DURING THEIR COVERAGE HOURS. SWIMMING AT JETTIES,
PIERS, GROINS IS ILL ADVISED SINCE RC REPEATEDLY FORM THERE.
SWIMMING AT NIGHT OR NOT IN SIGHT OF LIFE GUARDS IS RISKY. WATER
TROUBLE CAN QUICKLY TURN TO RECOVERY INSTEAD OF RESCUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE HAVE LOOKED AT RECORDS FOR NEXT WEEK (NEAR 100F IN 1953) AND SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH IN A HEAT WAVE OCCURRING NEXT WEEK,
NOT ENOUGH HEAT IS INDICATED TO CHALLENGE THE RECORDS. RECORD
HIGHS NEXT FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE LOWER BUT NOT SURE IF
ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS, THEREFORE KEEPING IT COOLER THAN RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 291543
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1143 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERALL THOUGH WILL TEND TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY SLIDE INTO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EASE
OFFSHORE WHERE IT BECOMES MORE CENTERED. THIS WILL START A MORE
PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY FLOW, ALTHOUGH STILL ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE
AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO WARM A BIT TODAY, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO A
WARMER AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE. THE DEW POINTS HAVE COME UP ESPECIALLY
FROM NEAR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON SOUTH AND EAST, HOWEVER
THESE SHOULD LOWER SOME THIS AFTERNOON WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING AND SOME MIXING. A SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP THE
COASTAL AREAS COOLER.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD.
THIS WILL ALSO ASSIST IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA TURNING
MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE IS A LITTLE CIRRUS AROUND, AND WITH HEATING
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY INLAND. THE
COVERAGE MAY BE LESS THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS GIVEN SOME WARMING
ALOFT. IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ALSO A WEAK COLD FRONT.

THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS, WHICH INCLUDED A QUICKER RISE IN TEMPERATURES
THUS FAR FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS THEN
BLENDED IN TO ASSIST, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY A NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME TONIGHT.  HIGH PRES MOVES A BIT MORE
EWD AND THERE CUD BE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS, BUT NOT MUCH
ELSE TO TALK ABOUT.  DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN A SLOW INCREASE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM ISN`T MUCH MORE EXCITING THAN THE SHORT OR NEAR
TERM, WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOSTLY THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT IT SHOULD BE
FILLING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. THUS, CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA ARE SLIM, SO HAVE KEPT THE PERIOD DRY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH BUILDS FURTHER EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD SHOWN DIGGING
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED,
MEANING RAIN CHANCES HAVE ALSO DECREASED. SO HAVE CHANGED THE
FORECAST TO HAVE NO MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME. WITH THE
HIGH BUILDING IN, 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND DESPITE THE
LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE IN FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE FRONT SHOULD BE SLOWING
AS FRONTOLYSIS BEGINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND. HOWEVER, THE FRONT COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE LEADING TO SOME RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AT AROUND 5000 FEET. LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS. A SEA BREEZE SHOULD
TURN THE WINDS MORE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT KACY, WITH THIS
POTENTIALLY OCCURRING AT KILG DUE TO A BAY BREEZE.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH REMAINING CUMULUS DISSIPATING IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED MVFR FOG TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS, TO
LOCALLY CALM.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED,
LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH BR EACH MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.  WIND WILL GENLY BE
S TO SW IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE WITH GUST IN THE 15 TO PSBLY AS HIGH
AS 20 KT ESPECIALLY ERLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING,
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 11 SECONDS/ EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES
TODAY, WITH SEAS IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE. A FULL MOON /HIGHER TIDE
LEVELS/ AND AN INCREASE IN A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR TRICKY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. AS A RESULT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER A LOW RISK IS MAINTAINED FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...APPEARS TO BE LOW ENHANCED WITH RESIDUAL IMPACT FROM TODAYS
3 FT 11-12 SECOND SE SWELL BUT THE SWELL SHOULD BE SUBSIDING
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY. STILL FULL MOON IMPACT SO LARGER THAN NORMAL
TIDAL EXCHANGE.

MONDAY AND ONWARD FOR NEXT WEEK...CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE A DAILY
LOW RISK.

CONCERN: ABOVE NORMAL SST`S (UPPER 70S) AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THIS LAST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER AND FOLKS BEING TOO CASUAL SINCE THE
RC RISK IS LOW. FOR GREATEST SAFETY... SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFE GUARDS AND DURING THEIR COVERAGE HOURS. SWIMMING AT JETTIES,
PIERS, GROINS IS ILL ADVISED SINCE RC REPEATEDLY FORM THERE.
SWIMMING AT NIGHT OR NOT IN SIGHT OF LIFE GUARDS IS RISKY. WATER
TROUBLE CAN QUICKLY TURN TO RECOVERY INSTEAD OF RESCUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE HAVE LOOKED AT RECORDS FOR NEXT WEEK (NEAR 100F IN 1953) AND SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH IN A HEAT WAVE OCCURRING NEXT WEEK,
NOT ENOUGH HEAT IS INDICATED TO CHALLENGE THE RECORDS. RECORD
HIGHS NEXT FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE LOWER BUT NOT SURE IF
ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS, THEREFORE KEEPING IT COOLER THAN RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...DRAG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 291543
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1143 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERALL THOUGH WILL TEND TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY SLIDE INTO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EASE
OFFSHORE WHERE IT BECOMES MORE CENTERED. THIS WILL START A MORE
PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY FLOW, ALTHOUGH STILL ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE
AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO WARM A BIT TODAY, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO A
WARMER AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE. THE DEW POINTS HAVE COME UP ESPECIALLY
FROM NEAR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ON SOUTH AND EAST, HOWEVER
THESE SHOULD LOWER SOME THIS AFTERNOON WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING AND SOME MIXING. A SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL KEEP THE
COASTAL AREAS COOLER.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD.
THIS WILL ALSO ASSIST IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA TURNING
MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE IS A LITTLE CIRRUS AROUND, AND WITH HEATING
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ESPECIALLY INLAND. THE
COVERAGE MAY BE LESS THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS GIVEN SOME WARMING
ALOFT. IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ALSO A WEAK COLD FRONT.

THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS, WHICH INCLUDED A QUICKER RISE IN TEMPERATURES
THUS FAR FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS THEN
BLENDED IN TO ASSIST, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY A NAM/GFS MOS
BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME TONIGHT.  HIGH PRES MOVES A BIT MORE
EWD AND THERE CUD BE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS, BUT NOT MUCH
ELSE TO TALK ABOUT.  DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN A SLOW INCREASE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM ISN`T MUCH MORE EXCITING THAN THE SHORT OR NEAR
TERM, WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOSTLY THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT IT SHOULD BE
FILLING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. THUS, CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA ARE SLIM, SO HAVE KEPT THE PERIOD DRY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH BUILDS FURTHER EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD SHOWN DIGGING
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED,
MEANING RAIN CHANCES HAVE ALSO DECREASED. SO HAVE CHANGED THE
FORECAST TO HAVE NO MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME. WITH THE
HIGH BUILDING IN, 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND DESPITE THE
LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE IN FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE FRONT SHOULD BE SLOWING
AS FRONTOLYSIS BEGINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND. HOWEVER, THE FRONT COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE LEADING TO SOME RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS AT AROUND 5000 FEET. LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS. A SEA BREEZE SHOULD
TURN THE WINDS MORE SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT KACY, WITH THIS
POTENTIALLY OCCURRING AT KILG DUE TO A BAY BREEZE.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH REMAINING CUMULUS DISSIPATING IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED MVFR FOG TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS, TO
LOCALLY CALM.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED,
LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH BR EACH MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.  WIND WILL GENLY BE
S TO SW IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE WITH GUST IN THE 15 TO PSBLY AS HIGH
AS 20 KT ESPECIALLY ERLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING,
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A LONG PERIOD /AROUND 11 SECONDS/ EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES
TODAY, WITH SEAS IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE. A FULL MOON /HIGHER TIDE
LEVELS/ AND AN INCREASE IN A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL ALLOW FOR TRICKY
CONDITIONS AT TIMES. AS A RESULT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER A LOW RISK IS MAINTAINED FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...APPEARS TO BE LOW ENHANCED WITH RESIDUAL IMPACT FROM TODAYS
3 FT 11-12 SECOND SE SWELL BUT THE SWELL SHOULD BE SUBSIDING
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY. STILL FULL MOON IMPACT SO LARGER THAN NORMAL
TIDAL EXCHANGE.

MONDAY AND ONWARD FOR NEXT WEEK...CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE A DAILY
LOW RISK.

CONCERN: ABOVE NORMAL SST`S (UPPER 70S) AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THIS LAST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER AND FOLKS BEING TOO CASUAL SINCE THE
RC RISK IS LOW. FOR GREATEST SAFETY... SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFE GUARDS AND DURING THEIR COVERAGE HOURS. SWIMMING AT JETTIES,
PIERS, GROINS IS ILL ADVISED SINCE RC REPEATEDLY FORM THERE.
SWIMMING AT NIGHT OR NOT IN SIGHT OF LIFE GUARDS IS RISKY. WATER
TROUBLE CAN QUICKLY TURN TO RECOVERY INSTEAD OF RESCUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE HAVE LOOKED AT RECORDS FOR NEXT WEEK (NEAR 100F IN 1953) AND SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH IN A HEAT WAVE OCCURRING NEXT WEEK,
NOT ENOUGH HEAT IS INDICATED TO CHALLENGE THE RECORDS. RECORD
HIGHS NEXT FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE LOWER BUT NOT SURE IF
ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS, THEREFORE KEEPING IT COOLER THAN RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG/GORSE
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291504
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1104 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERALL THOUGH WILL TEND TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY SLIDE INTO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EASE
OFFSHORE WHERE IT BECOMES MORE CENTERED. THIS WILL START A MORE
PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY FLOW, ALTHOUGH STILL ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE
AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO WARM A BIT TODAY, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO A
WARMER AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THERE SHOULD BE A SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WILL KEEP THE COASTAL AREAS A BIT COOLER.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALSO ASSIST IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
OUR AREA TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE IS A LITTLE CIRRUS AROUND,
AND WITH HEATING WE SHOULD GET SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS
THAT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO A WEAK COLD FRONT.

AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. IT IS A COOL START ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS DOWN INTO THE 50S. THESE WILL
REBOUND NICELY WITH AMPLE HEATING ALONG WITH SOME WARMING ALOFT. THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME TONIGHT.  HIGH PRES MOVES A BIT MORE
EWD AND THERE CUD BE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS, BUT NOT MUCH
ELSE TO TALK ABOUT.  DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN A SLOW INCREASE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM ISN`T MUCH MORE EXCITING THAN THE SHORT OR NEAR
TERM, WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOSTLY THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT IT SHOULD BE
FILLING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. THUS, CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA ARE SLIM, SO HAVE KEPT THE PERIOD DRY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH BUILDS FURTHER EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD SHOWN DIGGING
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED,
MEANING RAIN CHANCES HAVE ALSO DECREASED. SO HAVE CHANGED THE
FORECAST TO HAVE NO MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME. WITH THE
HIGH BUILDING IN, 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND DESPITE THE
LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE IN FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE FRONT SHOULD BE SLOWING
AS FRONTOLYSIS BEGINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND. HOWEVER, THE FRONT COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE LEADING TO SOME RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING AROUND 5000 FEET. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING UP TO
10 KNOTS. A SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TURN THE WINDS MORE
SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT KACY.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH REMAINING CUMULUS DISSIPATING IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED MVFR FOG TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS, TO
LOCALLY CALM.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED,
LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH BR EACH MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.  WIND WILL GENLY BE
S TO SW IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE WITH GUST IN THE 15 TO PSBLY AS HIGH
AS 20 KT ESPECIALLY ERLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING,
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
SEVERAL FACTORS COME INTO PLAY TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY
SWELL, THOUGH IT SHOULD BE LIGHT. HOWEVER, WE WILL HAVE A FULL
MOON AND S TO SW WIND THAT COULD GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE,
ESPECIALLY DURG THE LATE AFTN. ALSO SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET AND
WAVE PERIODS OF 10 TO 11 SECONDS.

THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL GIVE A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IN NEW JERSEY TODAY.   IN DELAWARE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY A LOW RISK.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...APPEARS TO BE LOW ENHANCED WITH RESIDUAL IMPACT FROM TODAYS
3 FT 11-12 SECOND SE SWELL BUT THE SWELL SHOULD BE SUBSIDING
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY. STILL FULL MOON IMPACT SO LARGER THAN NORMAL
TIDAL EXCHANGE.

MONDAY AND ONWARD FOR NEXT WEEK...CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE A DAILY
LOW RISK.

CONCERN: ABOVE NORMAL SST`S (UPPER 70S) AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THIS LAST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER AND FOLKS BEING TOO CASUAL SINCE THE
RC RISK IS LOW. FOR GREATEST SAFETY... SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFE GUARDS AND DURING THEIR COVERAGE HOURS. SWIMMING AT JETTIES,
PIERS, GROINS IS ILL ADVISED SINCE RC REPEATEDLY FORM THERE.
SWIMMING AT NIGHT OR NOT IN SIGHT OF LIFE GUARDS IS RISKY. WATER
TROUBLE CAN QUICKLY TURN TO RECOVERY INSTEAD OF RESCUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE HAVE LOOKED AT RECORDS FOR NEXT WEEK (NEAR 100F IN 1953) AND SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH IN A HEAT WAVE OCCURRING NEXT WEEK,
NOT ENOUGH HEAT IS INDICATED TO CHALLENGE THE RECORDS. RECORD
HIGHS NEXT FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE LOWER BUT NOT SURE IF
ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS, THEREFORE KEEPING IT COOLER THAN RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...1105
CLIMATE...1105





000
FXUS61 KPHI 291504
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1104 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERALL THOUGH WILL TEND TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY SLIDE INTO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EASE
OFFSHORE WHERE IT BECOMES MORE CENTERED. THIS WILL START A MORE
PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY FLOW, ALTHOUGH STILL ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE
AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO WARM A BIT TODAY, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO A
WARMER AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THERE SHOULD BE A SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WILL KEEP THE COASTAL AREAS A BIT COOLER.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALSO ASSIST IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
OUR AREA TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE IS A LITTLE CIRRUS AROUND,
AND WITH HEATING WE SHOULD GET SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS
THAT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO A WEAK COLD FRONT.

AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. IT IS A COOL START ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS DOWN INTO THE 50S. THESE WILL
REBOUND NICELY WITH AMPLE HEATING ALONG WITH SOME WARMING ALOFT. THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME TONIGHT.  HIGH PRES MOVES A BIT MORE
EWD AND THERE CUD BE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS, BUT NOT MUCH
ELSE TO TALK ABOUT.  DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN A SLOW INCREASE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM ISN`T MUCH MORE EXCITING THAN THE SHORT OR NEAR
TERM, WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOSTLY THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT IT SHOULD BE
FILLING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. THUS, CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA ARE SLIM, SO HAVE KEPT THE PERIOD DRY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH BUILDS FURTHER EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD SHOWN DIGGING
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED,
MEANING RAIN CHANCES HAVE ALSO DECREASED. SO HAVE CHANGED THE
FORECAST TO HAVE NO MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME. WITH THE
HIGH BUILDING IN, 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND DESPITE THE
LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE IN FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE FRONT SHOULD BE SLOWING
AS FRONTOLYSIS BEGINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND. HOWEVER, THE FRONT COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE LEADING TO SOME RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING AROUND 5000 FEET. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING UP TO
10 KNOTS. A SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TURN THE WINDS MORE
SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT KACY.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH REMAINING CUMULUS DISSIPATING IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED MVFR FOG TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS, TO
LOCALLY CALM.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED,
LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH BR EACH MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.  WIND WILL GENLY BE
S TO SW IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE WITH GUST IN THE 15 TO PSBLY AS HIGH
AS 20 KT ESPECIALLY ERLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING,
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
SEVERAL FACTORS COME INTO PLAY TODAY. THERE WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY
SWELL, THOUGH IT SHOULD BE LIGHT. HOWEVER, WE WILL HAVE A FULL
MOON AND S TO SW WIND THAT COULD GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE,
ESPECIALLY DURG THE LATE AFTN. ALSO SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET AND
WAVE PERIODS OF 10 TO 11 SECONDS.

THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL GIVE A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IN NEW JERSEY TODAY.   IN DELAWARE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY A LOW RISK.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...APPEARS TO BE LOW ENHANCED WITH RESIDUAL IMPACT FROM TODAYS
3 FT 11-12 SECOND SE SWELL BUT THE SWELL SHOULD BE SUBSIDING
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY. STILL FULL MOON IMPACT SO LARGER THAN NORMAL
TIDAL EXCHANGE.

MONDAY AND ONWARD FOR NEXT WEEK...CURRENTLY LOOKING TO BE A DAILY
LOW RISK.

CONCERN: ABOVE NORMAL SST`S (UPPER 70S) AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THIS LAST FULL WEEK OF SUMMER AND FOLKS BEING TOO CASUAL SINCE THE
RC RISK IS LOW. FOR GREATEST SAFETY... SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFE GUARDS AND DURING THEIR COVERAGE HOURS. SWIMMING AT JETTIES,
PIERS, GROINS IS ILL ADVISED SINCE RC REPEATEDLY FORM THERE.
SWIMMING AT NIGHT OR NOT IN SIGHT OF LIFE GUARDS IS RISKY. WATER
TROUBLE CAN QUICKLY TURN TO RECOVERY INSTEAD OF RESCUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE HAVE LOOKED AT RECORDS FOR NEXT WEEK (NEAR 100F IN 1953) AND SO
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH IN A HEAT WAVE OCCURRING NEXT WEEK,
NOT ENOUGH HEAT IS INDICATED TO CHALLENGE THE RECORDS. RECORD
HIGHS NEXT FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE LOWER BUT NOT SURE IF
ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS, THEREFORE KEEPING IT COOLER THAN RECORD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...1105
CLIMATE...1105




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291242
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
842 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERALL THOUGH WILL TEND TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY SLIDE INTO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EASE
OFFSHORE WHERE IT BECOMES MORE CENTERED. THIS WILL START A MORE
PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY FLOW, ALTHOUGH STILL ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE
AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO WARM A BIT TODAY, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO A
WARMER AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THERE SHOULD BE A SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WILL KEEP THE COASTAL AREAS A BIT COOLER.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALSO ASSIST IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
OUR AREA TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE IS A LITTLE CIRRUS AROUND,
AND WITH HEATING WE SHOULD GET SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS
THAT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO A WEAK COLD FRONT.

AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. IT IS A COOL START ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS DOWN INTO THE 50S. THESE WILL
REBOUND NICELY WITH AMPLE HEATING ALONG WITH SOME WARMING ALOFT. THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME TONIGHT.  HIGH PRES MOVES A BIT MORE
EWD AND THERE CUD BE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS, BUT NOT MUCH
ELSE TO TALK ABOUT.  DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN A SLOW INCREASE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM ISN`T MUCH MORE EXCITING THAN THE SHORT OR NEAR
TERM, WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOSTLY THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT IT SHOULD BE
FILLING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. THUS, CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA ARE SLIM, SO HAVE KEPT THE PERIOD DRY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH BUILDS FURTHER EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD SHOWN DIGGING
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED,
MEANING RAIN CHANCES HAVE ALSO DECREASED. SO HAVE CHANGED THE
FORECAST TO HAVE NO MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME. WITH THE
HIGH BUILDING IN, 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND DESPITE THE
LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE IN FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE FRONT SHOULD BE SLOWING
AS FRONTOLYSIS BEGINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND. HOWEVER, THE FRONT COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE LEADING TO SOME RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING AROUND 5000 FEET. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING UP TO
10 KNOTS. A SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TURN THE WINDS MORE
SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT KACY.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH REMAINING CUMULUS DISSIPATING IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED MVFR FOG TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS, TO
LOCALLY CALM.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED,
LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH BR EACH MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.  WIND WILL GENLY BE
S TO SW IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE WITH GUST IN THE 15 TO PSBLY AS HIGH
AS 20 KT ESPECIALLY ERLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING,
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
SEVERAL FACTORS COME INTO PLAY TODAY.  THERE WILL
BE SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL, THOUGH IT SHOULD BE LIGHT.  HOWEVER, WE WILL
HAVE A FULL MOON AND S TO SW WIND THAT COULD GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE, ESPECIALLY DURG THE LATE AFTN.  ALSO SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET
AND WAVE PERIODS OF 10 TO 11 SECONDS.

THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL GIVE A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IN NEW JERSEY TODAY.   IN DELAWARE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY A LOW RISK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 291242
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
842 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME CENTERED OFFSHORE TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERALL THOUGH WILL TEND TO
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, THEN A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY SLIDE INTO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO EASE
OFFSHORE WHERE IT BECOMES MORE CENTERED. THIS WILL START A MORE
PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY FLOW, ALTHOUGH STILL ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE
AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO WARM A BIT TODAY, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE INTO A
WARMER AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. THERE SHOULD BE A SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH WILL KEEP THE COASTAL AREAS A BIT COOLER.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALSO ASSIST IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
OUR AREA TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY. THERE IS A LITTLE CIRRUS AROUND,
AND WITH HEATING WE SHOULD GET SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. IT APPEARS
THAT ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND ALSO A WEAK COLD FRONT.

AN UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. IT IS A COOL START ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS DOWN INTO THE 50S. THESE WILL
REBOUND NICELY WITH AMPLE HEATING ALONG WITH SOME WARMING ALOFT. THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME TONIGHT.  HIGH PRES MOVES A BIT MORE
EWD AND THERE CUD BE AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS, BUT NOT MUCH
ELSE TO TALK ABOUT.  DEW POINTS WILL BEGIN A SLOW INCREASE AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM ISN`T MUCH MORE EXCITING THAN THE SHORT OR NEAR
TERM, WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOSTLY THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT IT SHOULD BE
FILLING AND WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. THUS, CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA ARE SLIM, SO HAVE KEPT THE PERIOD DRY.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH BUILDS FURTHER EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD SHOWN DIGGING
THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED,
MEANING RAIN CHANCES HAVE ALSO DECREASED. SO HAVE CHANGED THE
FORECAST TO HAVE NO MENTION OF SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME. WITH THE
HIGH BUILDING IN, 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND DESPITE THE
LACK OF ANY LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE IN FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE FRONT SHOULD BE SLOWING
AS FRONTOLYSIS BEGINS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE
AND SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND. HOWEVER, THE FRONT COULD SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE LEADING TO SOME RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING AROUND 5000 FEET. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING UP TO
10 KNOTS. A SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD TURN THE WINDS MORE
SOUTH OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT KACY.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH REMAINING CUMULUS DISSIPATING IN THE
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED MVFR FOG TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS, TO
LOCALLY CALM.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED,
LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE WITH BR EACH MORNING.

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NR AND SHORT TERM
PDS.  SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.  WIND WILL GENLY BE
S TO SW IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE WITH GUST IN THE 15 TO PSBLY AS HIGH
AS 20 KT ESPECIALLY ERLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING,
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
SEVERAL FACTORS COME INTO PLAY TODAY.  THERE WILL
BE SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL, THOUGH IT SHOULD BE LIGHT.  HOWEVER, WE WILL
HAVE A FULL MOON AND S TO SW WIND THAT COULD GUST IN THE 15 TO 20 KT
RANGE, ESPECIALLY DURG THE LATE AFTN.  ALSO SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET
AND WAVE PERIODS OF 10 TO 11 SECONDS.

THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL GIVE A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IN NEW JERSEY TODAY.   IN DELAWARE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY A LOW RISK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...




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