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000
FXUS61 KPHI 222143
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
543 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST COUPLE OF MESOSCALE HOURLY MODEL RUNS ARE SHIELDING THE ERN
PART OF OUR CWA IN THE NEAR NEAR TERM FROM MUCH PCPN. MORE BREAKS
ARE APPEARING IN THE CLOUDS AS THE VSB SATL IMAGERY IS SHOWING
LOWER CLOUDS ADVANCING TO THE WEST WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. SO EVENING ADJUSTMENT ARE TO LOWER POPS
EAST AND KEEP THEM AS IS WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON/CLOSE TO
SCHEDULE. BANKING ON CLOUDS REFORMING EAST, OR WE MAY BE A BIT TOO
HIGH DURING THE EVENING.

CALLING IT SCT SHOWERS (NUMEROUS FAR W SECTION OF OUR CWA) THRU
TONIGHT...MOST OF IT W NJ E PA AND THE DELMARVA.

AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS THAN WHAT OUR GRIDDED QPF
HAS AND IT COULD RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ISOLATED 0.75 INCH AMTS
POSSIBLE IN E PA BY MORNING DUE TO PWAT STILL 1.5 MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE MD E SHORE AND FAR S
DE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT.

NO THUNDER IN THE FCST ATTM SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS
RECEDED WWD JUST W OF OUR CWA WITH COOLER ELY FLOW INFLUX AND
SKYCOVER.

FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ONLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FCST
WILL BE ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY
SOUTH...SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER H5 TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA AND PLENTY OF DRIER AND SUBSIDING AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT.
WE WILL JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...AS WAS ALREADY IN THERE. TEMPS SAT NIGHT MID/UPPER 50S
NORTH/WEST AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUN AND IT WILL ROTATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA MON. THIS WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH COOL TEMPS SUN/MON.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE AND THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED/THU.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THU AND
THEN MOVE AWAY FRI. IT WILL PROBABLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WE HAVE JUST PAINTED SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. A TROPICAL
SYSTEM MAY MOVE UP FROM THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY NORTH NORTHEAST WED-THU.
SINCE IT WILL BE STAYING WELL EAST OF THE AREA...IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ENHANCED
SEAS. WE WILL BE WATCHING ANY DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDS WHEN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING DIMINISHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ENE WIND WITH MAX GUST 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA FLAG CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AND THRU 800 AM SUN FOR
THE SRN NJ AND DEL COASTAL WATERS. NEAR SCA CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INCREASES
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF 4
FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15
KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222143
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
543 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST COUPLE OF MESOSCALE HOURLY MODEL RUNS ARE SHIELDING THE ERN
PART OF OUR CWA IN THE NEAR NEAR TERM FROM MUCH PCPN. MORE BREAKS
ARE APPEARING IN THE CLOUDS AS THE VSB SATL IMAGERY IS SHOWING
LOWER CLOUDS ADVANCING TO THE WEST WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. SO EVENING ADJUSTMENT ARE TO LOWER POPS
EAST AND KEEP THEM AS IS WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON/CLOSE TO
SCHEDULE. BANKING ON CLOUDS REFORMING EAST, OR WE MAY BE A BIT TOO
HIGH DURING THE EVENING.

CALLING IT SCT SHOWERS (NUMEROUS FAR W SECTION OF OUR CWA) THRU
TONIGHT...MOST OF IT W NJ E PA AND THE DELMARVA.

AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS THAN WHAT OUR GRIDDED QPF
HAS AND IT COULD RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ISOLATED 0.75 INCH AMTS
POSSIBLE IN E PA BY MORNING DUE TO PWAT STILL 1.5 MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE MD E SHORE AND FAR S
DE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT.

NO THUNDER IN THE FCST ATTM SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS
RECEDED WWD JUST W OF OUR CWA WITH COOLER ELY FLOW INFLUX AND
SKYCOVER.

FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ONLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FCST
WILL BE ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY
SOUTH...SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER H5 TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA AND PLENTY OF DRIER AND SUBSIDING AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT.
WE WILL JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...AS WAS ALREADY IN THERE. TEMPS SAT NIGHT MID/UPPER 50S
NORTH/WEST AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUN AND IT WILL ROTATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA MON. THIS WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH COOL TEMPS SUN/MON.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE AND THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED/THU.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THU AND
THEN MOVE AWAY FRI. IT WILL PROBABLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WE HAVE JUST PAINTED SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. A TROPICAL
SYSTEM MAY MOVE UP FROM THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY NORTH NORTHEAST WED-THU.
SINCE IT WILL BE STAYING WELL EAST OF THE AREA...IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ENHANCED
SEAS. WE WILL BE WATCHING ANY DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDS WHEN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING DIMINISHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ENE WIND WITH MAX GUST 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA FLAG CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AND THRU 800 AM SUN FOR
THE SRN NJ AND DEL COASTAL WATERS. NEAR SCA CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INCREASES
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF 4
FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15
KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG








000
FXUS61 KPHI 221906
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
306 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN PROGRESS BOTH LOW TOP UNDER 4000 FT
MOVING WWD ON TPHL NEAR THE DEL RIVER AT 1845Z AND DEEPER NW FLOW
SHOWERS AS SEEN ON GENERAL RADARS.

IN THE MEANTIME CALLING IT SCT SHOWERS (NUMEROUS FAR W SECTION OF
OUR CWA) THRU TONIGHT...MOST OF IT W NJ E PA AND THE DELMARVA.

AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS THAN WHAT OUR GRIDDED QPF
HAS AND IT COULD RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ISOLATED 0.75 INCH AMTS
POSSIBLE IN E PA BY MORNING DUE TO PWAT STILL 1.5 MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE MD E SHORE AND FAR S
DE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT.

NO THUNDER IN THE FCST ATTM SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS
RECEDED WWD JUST W OF OUR CWA WITH COOLER ELY FLOW INFLUX AND
SKYCOVER.

FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ONLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FCST
WILL BE ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY
SOUTH...SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER H5 TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA AND PLENTY OF DRIER AND SUBSIDING AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT.
WE WILL JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...AS WAS ALREADY IN THERE. TEMPS SAT NIGHT MID/UPPER 50S
NORTH/WEST AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUN AND IT WILL ROTATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA MON. THIS WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH COOL TEMPS SUN/MON.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE AND THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED/THU.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THU AND
THEN MOVE AWAY FRI. IT WILL PROBABLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WE HAVE JUST PAINTED SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. A TROPICAL
SYSTEM MAY MOVE UP FROM THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY NORTH NORTHEAST WED-THU.
SINCE IT WILL BE STAYING WELL EAST OF THE AREA...IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ENHANCED
SEAS. WE WILL BE WATCHING ANY DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS MAINLY 2000 TO 3500 FT WITH
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS MAYBE REDUCING VSBY TO 5 MI. ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY DRIFT TOWARD KRDG LATE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KRDG. ELY
FLOW MAX GUST 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDS WHEN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING DIMINISHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ENE WIND WITH MAX GUST 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA FLAG CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AND THRU 800 AM SUN FOR
THE SRN NJ AND DEL COASTAL WATERS. NEAR SCA CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INCREASES
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF 4
FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15
KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221906
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
306 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN PROGRESS BOTH LOW TOP UNDER 4000 FT
MOVING WWD ON TPHL NEAR THE DEL RIVER AT 1845Z AND DEEPER NW FLOW
SHOWERS AS SEEN ON GENERAL RADARS.

IN THE MEANTIME CALLING IT SCT SHOWERS (NUMEROUS FAR W SECTION OF
OUR CWA) THRU TONIGHT...MOST OF IT W NJ E PA AND THE DELMARVA.

AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS THAN WHAT OUR GRIDDED QPF
HAS AND IT COULD RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ISOLATED 0.75 INCH AMTS
POSSIBLE IN E PA BY MORNING DUE TO PWAT STILL 1.5 MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE MD E SHORE AND FAR S
DE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT.

NO THUNDER IN THE FCST ATTM SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS
RECEDED WWD JUST W OF OUR CWA WITH COOLER ELY FLOW INFLUX AND
SKYCOVER.

FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ONLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FCST
WILL BE ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY
SOUTH...SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER H5 TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA AND PLENTY OF DRIER AND SUBSIDING AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT.
WE WILL JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...AS WAS ALREADY IN THERE. TEMPS SAT NIGHT MID/UPPER 50S
NORTH/WEST AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUN AND IT WILL ROTATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA MON. THIS WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH COOL TEMPS SUN/MON.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE AND THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED/THU.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THU AND
THEN MOVE AWAY FRI. IT WILL PROBABLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WE HAVE JUST PAINTED SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. A TROPICAL
SYSTEM MAY MOVE UP FROM THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY NORTH NORTHEAST WED-THU.
SINCE IT WILL BE STAYING WELL EAST OF THE AREA...IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ENHANCED
SEAS. WE WILL BE WATCHING ANY DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS MAINLY 2000 TO 3500 FT WITH
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS MAYBE REDUCING VSBY TO 5 MI. ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY DRIFT TOWARD KRDG LATE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KRDG. ELY
FLOW MAX GUST 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDS WHEN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING DIMINISHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ENE WIND WITH MAX GUST 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA FLAG CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AND THRU 800 AM SUN FOR
THE SRN NJ AND DEL COASTAL WATERS. NEAR SCA CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INCREASES
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF 4
FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15
KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG








000
FXUS61 KPHI 221858
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN PROGRESS BOTH LOW TOP UNDER 4000 FT
MOVING WWD ON TPHL NEAR THE DEL RIVER AT 1845Z AND DEEPER NW FLOW
SHOWERS AS SEEN ON GENERAL RADARS.

IN THE MEANTIME CALLING IT SCT SHOWERS (NUMEROUS FAR W SECTION OF
OUR CWA) THRU TONIGHT...MOST OF IT W NJ E PA AND THE DELMARVA.

AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS THAN WHAT OUR GRIDDED QPF
HAS AND IT COULD RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ISOLATED 0.75 INCH AMTS
POSSIBLE IN E PA BY MORNING DUE TO PWAT STILL 1.5 MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE MD E SHORE AND FAR S
DE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT.

NO THUNDER IN THE FCST ATTM SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS
RECEDED WWD JUST W OF OUR CWA WITH COOLER ELY FLOW INFLUX AND
SKYCOVER.

FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO
LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL
BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS MAINLY 2000 TO 3500 FT WITH
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS MAYBE REDUCING VSBY TO 5 MI. ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY DRIFT TOWARD KRDG LATE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KRDG. ELY
FLOW MAX GUST 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDS WHEN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING DIMINISHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ENE WIND WITH MAX GUST 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INCREASES
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF 4
FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15
KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  258
SHORT TERM...DRAG 258
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 258
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 258
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 258







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221858
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN PROGRESS BOTH LOW TOP UNDER 4000 FT
MOVING WWD ON TPHL NEAR THE DEL RIVER AT 1845Z AND DEEPER NW FLOW
SHOWERS AS SEEN ON GENERAL RADARS.

IN THE MEANTIME CALLING IT SCT SHOWERS (NUMEROUS FAR W SECTION OF
OUR CWA) THRU TONIGHT...MOST OF IT W NJ E PA AND THE DELMARVA.

AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS THAN WHAT OUR GRIDDED QPF
HAS AND IT COULD RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ISOLATED 0.75 INCH AMTS
POSSIBLE IN E PA BY MORNING DUE TO PWAT STILL 1.5 MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE MD E SHORE AND FAR S
DE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT.

NO THUNDER IN THE FCST ATTM SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS
RECEDED WWD JUST W OF OUR CWA WITH COOLER ELY FLOW INFLUX AND
SKYCOVER.

FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO
LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL
BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS MAINLY 2000 TO 3500 FT WITH
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS MAYBE REDUCING VSBY TO 5 MI. ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY DRIFT TOWARD KRDG LATE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KRDG. ELY
FLOW MAX GUST 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDS WHEN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING DIMINISHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ENE WIND WITH MAX GUST 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INCREASES
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF 4
FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15
KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  258
SHORT TERM...DRAG 258
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 258
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 258
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 258








000
FXUS61 KPHI 221702
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
102 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE; SPRINKLES OCCURRING AT THE OFFICE NOW AS SEEN ON
TPHL..MOVING WEST..SHALLOW LOW TOPPED UNDER 4000 FT.

MEANWHILE SCT SHOWERS IN DEEPER MOISTURE FLOWING SEWD FROM CENTRAL
PA WILL PROBABLY AFFECT INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF E PA AND THE
DELMARVA THIS AFTN AND THUS OUR FCST OF SCT SHOWERS.

WHETHER THERE IS ANY THUNDER IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND NOT LIKELY
EXCEPT MAYBE THE DELMARVA. THUNDER COVERAGE HAS BEEN REDUCED IN
THE FCST BY USING WX TOOL AOB SBLI -2.

OTRW MOCLOUDY. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

SO I`VE SORT OF GIVEN UP ON THE IDEA OF BIG TSTMS PRODUCING POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING RAINS IN E PA TONIGHT BUT I`D LIKE ANOTHER LOOK
AT LATER MODEL GUIDANCE AROUND 215 PM.

OTRW TONIGHT MO CLOUDY WITH A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS...MOSTLY LIGHT.

THE FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE ALREADY UPDATED THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SUING THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE ON SATURDAY MIGHT RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
FOR A TIME. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IN ENE FLOW MAX GUST 20 MPH.
50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO
LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL
BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS 1500 TO 3000 FT WITH SCT SPRINKLES
MAYBE REDUCING VSBY TO 5 MI. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DELMARVA AND
E PA LATE BUT NOT ENVISIONED PREDOMINANT. ELY FLOW MAX GUST 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDS IF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS MAY INCREASE
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL
OF 3 TO 4 FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW OF 15 KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  102
SHORT TERM...DRAG 102
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 102
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 102
RIP CURRENTS...102








000
FXUS61 KPHI 221702
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
102 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE; SPRINKLES OCCURRING AT THE OFFICE NOW AS SEEN ON
TPHL..MOVING WEST..SHALLOW LOW TOPPED UNDER 4000 FT.

MEANWHILE SCT SHOWERS IN DEEPER MOISTURE FLOWING SEWD FROM CENTRAL
PA WILL PROBABLY AFFECT INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF E PA AND THE
DELMARVA THIS AFTN AND THUS OUR FCST OF SCT SHOWERS.

WHETHER THERE IS ANY THUNDER IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND NOT LIKELY
EXCEPT MAYBE THE DELMARVA. THUNDER COVERAGE HAS BEEN REDUCED IN
THE FCST BY USING WX TOOL AOB SBLI -2.

OTRW MOCLOUDY. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

SO I`VE SORT OF GIVEN UP ON THE IDEA OF BIG TSTMS PRODUCING POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING RAINS IN E PA TONIGHT BUT I`D LIKE ANOTHER LOOK
AT LATER MODEL GUIDANCE AROUND 215 PM.

OTRW TONIGHT MO CLOUDY WITH A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS...MOSTLY LIGHT.

THE FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE ALREADY UPDATED THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SUING THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE ON SATURDAY MIGHT RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
FOR A TIME. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IN ENE FLOW MAX GUST 20 MPH.
50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO
LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL
BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS 1500 TO 3000 FT WITH SCT SPRINKLES
MAYBE REDUCING VSBY TO 5 MI. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DELMARVA AND
E PA LATE BUT NOT ENVISIONED PREDOMINANT. ELY FLOW MAX GUST 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDS IF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS MAY INCREASE
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL
OF 3 TO 4 FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW OF 15 KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  102
SHORT TERM...DRAG 102
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 102
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 102
RIP CURRENTS...102







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221427
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1027 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1017AM UPDATE TO ADD SPRINKLES INTO THE LATE MORNING PORTION OF
THE FCST AWAY FROM THE COAST AND OTHERWISE DIMINISHED THE CHANCE
OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST TO NO MENTION.

PWAT 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES WITH ML CAPE 500 TO 1000J SETS THE STAGE
FOR MORE GULLY WASHERS LATE THIS AFTN OR TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN
E PA AND OR W NJ AS PER THE 06Z NAM. SUCCESSIVE CYCLES OF THE NAM
AND THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AS WELL AS THE ECMWF TO SOME EXTENT WERE
THE BEST MODELS AT HIGHLIGHTING LAST NIGHTS TORRENTS THAT IN SOME
PLACES WERE EXCESSIVE ACROSS NE PA AND NW NJ. LSR`S AND PNS`S WILL
HIGHLIGHT THOSE AMTS.

THIS MORNING...WE`RE IN A LULL AS PER COSPA/HRRR AND INN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING AND THINNING THE CIGS OF 500 TO 1500 FT.

THIS AFTERNOON...COOLER THAN YDY DUE TO COMBINED CLOUD AND EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HOW MUCH DEVELOPS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS IS
DEBATABLE BUT MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH OUR EARLIER FCST.

TONIGHT...UPSLOPE FLOW AND POSSIBLY A NW FLOW SHORT WAVE TRIGGER
MAY BE FAVORING A POCKET OR TWO OF EXCESSIVE RAIN IN E PA. JURY
STILL OUT ON THIS AND AM UNLIKELY TO HIT THIS HARD TONIGHT PER
THE 12Z/22 NAM DELAY AND FURTHER WEST...NOW AXISED FROM KILG-
KIPT. STILL SOMETHING SUBSTANTIAL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN A NARROW
SWATH OF E PA SOMETIME LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
ALMOST SEEMS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD; THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA. ONCE THIS IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING,
SHOWER CHANCES DROP OFF OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

CONTINUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO
LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL
BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...CIGS 700 TO 2000 FT AT 14Z WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MAINLY
VFR CIGS THIS AFTN. SCATTERED SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER TODAY, SO THEY
WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AS VCSH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING WAS LOW, SO
THEY WERE KEPT OUT FOR NOW. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE EAST SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WE EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATER
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS MOISTURE POOLS AT THE LOW-
LEVEL INVERSION. IN FACT, CIGS MAY END UP LOWERING TO IFR FOR MANY
AREAS OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A TSTM...ESPECIALLY E PA TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
RIGHT NOW LOW RISK TODAY SINCE THE GUSTY EAST WINDS OF VERY EARLY
THIS MORNING HAVE SUBSIDED.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS MAY INCREASE
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL
OF 3 TO 4 FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW OF 15 KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  1026
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 1026
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221339
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PWAT 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES WITH ML CAPE 500 TO 1000J SETS THE STAGE
FOR MORE GULLY WASHERS LATE THIS AFTN OR TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN
E PA AND OR W NJ AS PER THE 06Z NAM. SUCCESSIVE CYCLES OF THE NAM
AND THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AS WELL AS THE ECMWF TO SOME EXTENT WERE
THE BEST MODELS AT HIGHLIGHTING LAST NIGHTS TORRENTS THAT IN SOME
PLACES WERE EXCESSIVE ACROSS NE PA AND NW NJ. LSR`S AND PNS`S WILL
HIGHLIGHT THOSE AMTS.

THIS MORNING...WE`RE IN A LULL AS PER COSPA/HRRR AND INN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING AND THINNING THE CIGS OF 500 TO 1500 FT.

THIS AFTERNOON...COOLER THAN YDY DUE TO COMBINED CLOUD AND EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HOW MUCH DEVELOPS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS IS
DEBATABLE BUT MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH OUR EARLIER FCST.

TONIGHT...UPSLOPE FLOW AND POSSIBLY A NW FLOW SHORT WAVE TRIGGER
MAY BE FAVORING A POCKET OR TWO OF EXCESSIVE RAIN IN E PA. JURY
STILL OUT ON THIS BUT NEED TO SEE HOW THE 12Z/22 NAM HANDLES QPF
POTENTIAL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
ALMOST SEEMS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD; THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA. ONCE THIS IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING,
SHOWER CHANCES DROP OFF OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

CONTINUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO
LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL
BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...CIGS 500 TO 1500 FT AT 13Z WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MAINLY VFR
CIGS THIS AFTN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER TODAY,
SO THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AS VCSH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING WAS LOW, SO
THEY WERE KEPT OUT FOR NOW. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE EAST SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WE EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATER
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS MOISTURE POOLS AT THE LOW-
LEVEL INVERSION. IN FACT, CIGS MAY END UP LOWERING TO IFR FOR MANY
AREAS OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A TSTM...ESPECIALLY E PA TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
RIGHT NOW LOW RISK TODAY SINCE THE GUSTY EAST WINDS OF VERY EARLY
THIS MORNING HAVE SUBSIDED.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS MAY INCREASE
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL
OF 3 TO 4 FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW OF 15 KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON  938
SHORT TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 938
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 938
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 938
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 938







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221339
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PWAT 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES WITH ML CAPE 500 TO 1000J SETS THE STAGE
FOR MORE GULLY WASHERS LATE THIS AFTN OR TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN
E PA AND OR W NJ AS PER THE 06Z NAM. SUCCESSIVE CYCLES OF THE NAM
AND THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AS WELL AS THE ECMWF TO SOME EXTENT WERE
THE BEST MODELS AT HIGHLIGHTING LAST NIGHTS TORRENTS THAT IN SOME
PLACES WERE EXCESSIVE ACROSS NE PA AND NW NJ. LSR`S AND PNS`S WILL
HIGHLIGHT THOSE AMTS.

THIS MORNING...WE`RE IN A LULL AS PER COSPA/HRRR AND INN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING AND THINNING THE CIGS OF 500 TO 1500 FT.

THIS AFTERNOON...COOLER THAN YDY DUE TO COMBINED CLOUD AND EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HOW MUCH DEVELOPS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS IS
DEBATABLE BUT MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH OUR EARLIER FCST.

TONIGHT...UPSLOPE FLOW AND POSSIBLY A NW FLOW SHORT WAVE TRIGGER
MAY BE FAVORING A POCKET OR TWO OF EXCESSIVE RAIN IN E PA. JURY
STILL OUT ON THIS BUT NEED TO SEE HOW THE 12Z/22 NAM HANDLES QPF
POTENTIAL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
ALMOST SEEMS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD; THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA. ONCE THIS IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING,
SHOWER CHANCES DROP OFF OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

CONTINUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO
LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL
BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...CIGS 500 TO 1500 FT AT 13Z WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MAINLY VFR
CIGS THIS AFTN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER TODAY,
SO THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AS VCSH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING WAS LOW, SO
THEY WERE KEPT OUT FOR NOW. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE EAST SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WE EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATER
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS MOISTURE POOLS AT THE LOW-
LEVEL INVERSION. IN FACT, CIGS MAY END UP LOWERING TO IFR FOR MANY
AREAS OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A TSTM...ESPECIALLY E PA TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
RIGHT NOW LOW RISK TODAY SINCE THE GUSTY EAST WINDS OF VERY EARLY
THIS MORNING HAVE SUBSIDED.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS MAY INCREASE
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL
OF 3 TO 4 FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW OF 15 KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON  938
SHORT TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 938
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 938
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 938
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 938








000
FXUS61 KPHI 220756
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THEY HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING
ALONG A THETA-E AND INSTABILITY DIFFERENTIAL LINE AS THE SHORT
WAVE/VORT MAX ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, SO THIS
SHOWER/THUNDER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK, BUT
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY THAT TIME. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY
WANES, WE SHOULD GET A BREAK IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOR THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA, WHILE THE COAST MAY REMAIN DRY LATER
TODAY. THERE REMAINS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY, SO THERE WILL REMAIN THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. AS WITH
YESTERDAY, WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT AND MINIMAL
SHEAR, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP, THEY COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, IN ADDITION TO HEAVY
RAIN AS PW VALUES REMAIN 1.5-1.75 INCHES. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL HAIL IF THERE ARE ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. AGAIN, THE BEST FAVORED AREAS ARE THE WESTERN HALF/TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA IN THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.

ALMOST SEEMS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD; THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE
THIS IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING, SHOWER CHANCES
DROP OFF OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

CONTINUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN
OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED
ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. THE DISTURBANCE
THAT CREATED THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING, AND
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR AS DAYTIME
MIXING TAKES PLACE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY, SO
THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING WAS LOW, SO
THEY WERE KEPT OUT FOR NOW. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
EAST 5-10 KNOTS.

WE EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS MOISTURE POOLS AT THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION.
IN FACT, CIGS MAY END UP LOWERING TO IFR FOR MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 220756
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THEY HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING
ALONG A THETA-E AND INSTABILITY DIFFERENTIAL LINE AS THE SHORT
WAVE/VORT MAX ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, SO THIS
SHOWER/THUNDER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK, BUT
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY THAT TIME. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY
WANES, WE SHOULD GET A BREAK IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOR THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA, WHILE THE COAST MAY REMAIN DRY LATER
TODAY. THERE REMAINS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY, SO THERE WILL REMAIN THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. AS WITH
YESTERDAY, WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT AND MINIMAL
SHEAR, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP, THEY COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, IN ADDITION TO HEAVY
RAIN AS PW VALUES REMAIN 1.5-1.75 INCHES. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL HAIL IF THERE ARE ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. AGAIN, THE BEST FAVORED AREAS ARE THE WESTERN HALF/TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA IN THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.

ALMOST SEEMS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD; THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE
THIS IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING, SHOWER CHANCES
DROP OFF OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

CONTINUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN
OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED
ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. THE DISTURBANCE
THAT CREATED THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING, AND
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR AS DAYTIME
MIXING TAKES PLACE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY, SO
THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING WAS LOW, SO
THEY WERE KEPT OUT FOR NOW. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
EAST 5-10 KNOTS.

WE EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS MOISTURE POOLS AT THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION.
IN FACT, CIGS MAY END UP LOWERING TO IFR FOR MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY UP INTO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONTINUING TO
REGENERATE ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES AND THE DISSIPATION PROCESS
SHOULD BE RATHER SLOW FROM THIS POINT ONWARD, ESPECIALLY WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE
WILL FORECAST CATEGORICAL OR LIKELY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN WE WILL LOWER THE
PROBABILITIES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD.

THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NORTHERN
DELAWARE SHOULD BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE, AS WELL. THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT AND THE AREA MAY
EXPAND A BIT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE THE MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES
INTEREST IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE
PLAYED THE SHOWER AND TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE
330 AM THURSDAY FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY
IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU
NEXT WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR
NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING FROM AROUND KABE AND KTTN NORTHWARD.
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL TO IFR
DEPENDING UPON THE EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE
MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR
MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA









000
FXUS61 KPHI 220140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY UP INTO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONTINUING TO
REGENERATE ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES AND THE DISSIPATION PROCESS
SHOULD BE RATHER SLOW FROM THIS POINT ONWARD, ESPECIALLY WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE
WILL FORECAST CATEGORICAL OR LIKELY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN WE WILL LOWER THE
PROBABILITIES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD.

THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NORTHERN
DELAWARE SHOULD BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE, AS WELL. THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT AND THE AREA MAY
EXPAND A BIT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE THE MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES
INTEREST IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE
PLAYED THE SHOWER AND TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE
330 AM THURSDAY FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY
IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU
NEXT WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR
NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING FROM AROUND KABE AND KTTN NORTHWARD.
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL TO IFR
DEPENDING UPON THE EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE
MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR
MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 220012
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
812 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STABLE AIR WAS CONTINUING TO ADVECT OFF THE OCEAN THIS EVENING.
DEW POINT READINGS WERE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
IN MUCH OF NEW JERSEY. MEANWHILE, CONDITIONS REMAINED UNSTABLE ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE DURING THE
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE EVENING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST BASED ON THE
RADAR TRENDS TO INCLUDE AREAS FROM BERKS COUNTY AND UPPER
MONTGOMERY COUNTY DOWN TO THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE
BAY.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD AND IT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT, EVEN AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS WEAKEN.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES
INTEREST IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE
PLAYED THE SHOWER AND TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE
330 AM THURSDAY FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY
IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU
NEXT WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR
NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH OF KABE
AND KTTN AND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF KPHL AND KILG, INCLUDING
THE KRDG AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 0600Z
EXCEPT THEY MAY LOWER TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL TO IFR DEPENDING UPON THE
EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE
MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR
MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220012
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
812 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STABLE AIR WAS CONTINUING TO ADVECT OFF THE OCEAN THIS EVENING.
DEW POINT READINGS WERE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
IN MUCH OF NEW JERSEY. MEANWHILE, CONDITIONS REMAINED UNSTABLE ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE DURING THE
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE EVENING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST BASED ON THE
RADAR TRENDS TO INCLUDE AREAS FROM BERKS COUNTY AND UPPER
MONTGOMERY COUNTY DOWN TO THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE
BAY.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD AND IT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT, EVEN AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS WEAKEN.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES
INTEREST IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE
PLAYED THE SHOWER AND TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE
330 AM THURSDAY FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY
IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU
NEXT WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR
NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH OF KABE
AND KTTN AND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF KPHL AND KILG, INCLUDING
THE KRDG AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 0600Z
EXCEPT THEY MAY LOWER TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL TO IFR DEPENDING UPON THE
EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE
MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR
MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG








000
FXUS61 KPHI 212245
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
645 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STABLE AIR WAS CONTINUING TO ADVECT OFF THE OCEAN EARLY THIS
EVENING. DEW POINT READINGS WERE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S IN NEW JERSEY. MEANWHILE, CONDITIONS REMAINED UNSTABLE
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE DURING THE
EVENING WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ALL BUT TWO AREAS.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
THERE, AS WELL. ALSO, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EVENING THUNDERSTORM
FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AS SOME OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY MAY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THAT AREA.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD AND IT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES
INTEREST IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE
PLAYED THE SHOWER AND TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE
330 AM THURSDAY FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY
IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU
NEXT WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR
NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH OF KABE
AND KTTN AND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF KPHL AND KILG.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 0400Z EXCEPT THEY MAY
LOWER TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL TO IFR DEPENDING UPON THE
EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE
MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR
MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 212245
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
645 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STABLE AIR WAS CONTINUING TO ADVECT OFF THE OCEAN EARLY THIS
EVENING. DEW POINT READINGS WERE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S IN NEW JERSEY. MEANWHILE, CONDITIONS REMAINED UNSTABLE
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE DURING THE
EVENING WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ALL BUT TWO AREAS.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
THERE, AS WELL. ALSO, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EVENING THUNDERSTORM
FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AS SOME OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY MAY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THAT AREA.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD AND IT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES
INTEREST IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE
PLAYED THE SHOWER AND TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE
330 AM THURSDAY FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY
IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU
NEXT WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR
NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH OF KABE
AND KTTN AND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF KPHL AND KILG.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 0400Z EXCEPT THEY MAY
LOWER TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL TO IFR DEPENDING UPON THE
EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE
MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR
MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG








000
FXUS61 KPHI 211932
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
(G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE
00Z/21 NSSL WRF IN WEAK WAA AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA
WHERE SBLI AT 18Z NEAR -7. EXPLAINING THE AXIS OF THE ONGOING
STORMS AT 1830Z...I CANNOT EASILY DO. IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND
PROXIMITY TO THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED IN OUR CWA MORE TO
THE NORTH RATHER THAN TO THE SOUTH. PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE
1200J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE SREF AND GEFS POPS ARE 20-30
PCT HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE ISSUING AT 330 PM.

AS NOTED EARLIER: THE 12Z NAM CONTG A THEME OF 2 INCH IN ONE HOUR
TSTMS SOMEWHERE IN E CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL NJ THIS EVENING. VIL
NEAR 60 AT 1845Z CENTRAL PA IS EITHER VERIFYING THAT RAIN OR
SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL.

WHILE THE PLACEMENT OF THE NAM SHORT TERM QPF IS POSSIBLY WRONG...THE
IDEA I THINK IS CORRECT. A PTN OF E CENTRAL OR NE PA IN N OR CENTRAL
NJ SHOULD RECEIVE SOME STRONG TSTORMS VERY LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING.

OTRW CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS DELMARVA AS BLOWOFF CLOUD DEBRIS FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY CONVECTION SPREADS EWD.


AFTER MIDNIGHT...NORMALLY ANY EVENING CONVECTION DIMINISHES BUT
THE ECMWF TRIES TO INCREASE RFALL AFTER 06Z WITH THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING SEWD FROM NYS. JUST VERY UNSURE OF WHAT EXISTS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI CONVECTIVE
RELATED PRODUCTS ISSUED THIS EVENING.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED THE SHOWER AND
TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE 330 AM THURSDAY FCST
POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE 12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK UPPER
LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY ACROSS
THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY IN THE CHC
RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO MID 70S NORTH.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU NEXT
WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER THIS AFTERNOON...SPOTTY MVFR CIGS IN E PA SHOULD LIFT
THE VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT ELSEWHERE WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW. LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE THIS
AFTN...MAINLY VCNTY KRDG AND KABE. A NW WIND GUST TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH A LATE AFTN TSTM.

TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING WITH NW WIND G25-35 KT
AND BRIEF IFR CONDS...MAINLY IN THE 23Z-03Z TIME FRAME THOUGH
SHOWERS MAY LINGER LATE AT NIGHT VCNTY KACY. OTRW VFR CIGS MAY
DEGRADE TO MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG TOWARD 09Z. CONFIDENCE ON
DEGRADED CIGS/VSBY LATE AT NIGHT IS BELOW AVG.

FRIDAY...CIGS 2500-4000 FT WITH LOWER IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND THE WIND TURNING LIGHT EASTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER CONDITIONS.
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM
THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY
TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 211932
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
(G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE
00Z/21 NSSL WRF IN WEAK WAA AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA
WHERE SBLI AT 18Z NEAR -7. EXPLAINING THE AXIS OF THE ONGOING
STORMS AT 1830Z...I CANNOT EASILY DO. IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND
PROXIMITY TO THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED IN OUR CWA MORE TO
THE NORTH RATHER THAN TO THE SOUTH. PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE
1200J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE SREF AND GEFS POPS ARE 20-30
PCT HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE ISSUING AT 330 PM.

AS NOTED EARLIER: THE 12Z NAM CONTG A THEME OF 2 INCH IN ONE HOUR
TSTMS SOMEWHERE IN E CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL NJ THIS EVENING. VIL
NEAR 60 AT 1845Z CENTRAL PA IS EITHER VERIFYING THAT RAIN OR
SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL.

WHILE THE PLACEMENT OF THE NAM SHORT TERM QPF IS POSSIBLY WRONG...THE
IDEA I THINK IS CORRECT. A PTN OF E CENTRAL OR NE PA IN N OR CENTRAL
NJ SHOULD RECEIVE SOME STRONG TSTORMS VERY LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING.

OTRW CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS DELMARVA AS BLOWOFF CLOUD DEBRIS FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY CONVECTION SPREADS EWD.


AFTER MIDNIGHT...NORMALLY ANY EVENING CONVECTION DIMINISHES BUT
THE ECMWF TRIES TO INCREASE RFALL AFTER 06Z WITH THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING SEWD FROM NYS. JUST VERY UNSURE OF WHAT EXISTS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI CONVECTIVE
RELATED PRODUCTS ISSUED THIS EVENING.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED THE SHOWER AND
TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE 330 AM THURSDAY FCST
POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE 12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK UPPER
LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY ACROSS
THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY IN THE CHC
RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO MID 70S NORTH.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU NEXT
WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER THIS AFTERNOON...SPOTTY MVFR CIGS IN E PA SHOULD LIFT
THE VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT ELSEWHERE WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW. LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE THIS
AFTN...MAINLY VCNTY KRDG AND KABE. A NW WIND GUST TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH A LATE AFTN TSTM.

TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING WITH NW WIND G25-35 KT
AND BRIEF IFR CONDS...MAINLY IN THE 23Z-03Z TIME FRAME THOUGH
SHOWERS MAY LINGER LATE AT NIGHT VCNTY KACY. OTRW VFR CIGS MAY
DEGRADE TO MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG TOWARD 09Z. CONFIDENCE ON
DEGRADED CIGS/VSBY LATE AT NIGHT IS BELOW AVG.

FRIDAY...CIGS 2500-4000 FT WITH LOWER IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND THE WIND TURNING LIGHT EASTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER CONDITIONS.
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM
THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY
TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211858
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO VIRGINIA PRODUCES OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
(G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE
00Z/21 NSSL WRF IN WEAK WAA AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA
WHERE SBLI AT 18Z NEAR -7. EXPLAINING THE AXIS OF THE ONGOING
STORMS AT 1830Z...I CANNOT EASILY DO. IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND
PROXIMITY TO THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED IN OUR CWA MORE TO
THE NORTH RATHER THAN TO THE SOUTH. PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE
1200J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE SREF AND GEFS POPS ARE 20-30
PCT HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE ISSUING AT 330 PM.

AS NOTED EARLIER: THE 12Z NAM CONTG A THEME OF 2 INCH IN ONE HOUR
TSTMS SOMEWHERE IN E CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL NJ THIS EVENING. VIL
NEAR 60 AT 1845Z CENTRAL PA IS EITHER VERIFYING THAT RAIN OR
SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL.

WHILE THE PLACEMENT OF THE NAM SHORT TERM QPF IS POSSIBLY WRONG...THE
IDEA I THINK IS CORRECT. A PTN OF E CENTRAL OR NE PA IN N OR CENTRAL
NJ SHOULD RECEIVE SOME STRONG TSTORMS VERY LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING.

OTRW CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS DELMARVA AS BLOWOFF CLOUD DEBRIS FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY CONVECTION SPREADS EWD.


AFTER MIDNIGHT...NORMALLY ANY EVENING CONVECTION DIMINISHES BUT
THE ECMWF TRIES TO INCREASE RFALL AFTER 06Z WITH THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING SEWD FROM NYS. JUST VERY UNSURE OF WHAT EXISTS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI CONVECTIVE
RELATED PRODUCTS ISSUED THIS EVENING.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED THE SHOWER AND
TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE 330 AM THURSDAY FCST
POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE 12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE OTHER HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER THIS AFTERNOON...SPOTTY MVFR CIGS IN E PA SHOULD LIFT
THE VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT ELSEWHERE WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW. LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE THIS
AFTN...MAINLY VCNTY KRDG AND KABE. A NW WIND GUST TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH A LATE AFTN TSTM.

TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING WITH NW WIND G25-35 KT
AND BRIEF IFR CONDS...MAINLY IN THE 23Z-03Z TIME FRAME THOUGH
SHOWERS MAY LINGER LATE AT NIGHT VCNTY KACY. OTRW VFR CIGS MAY
DEGRADE TO MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG TOWARD 09Z. CONFIDENCE ON
DEGRADED CIGS/VSBY LATE AT NIGHT IS BELOW AVG.

FRIDAY...CIGS 2500-4000 FT WITH LOWER IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND THE WIND TURNING LIGHT EASTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM
THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY
TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA NE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE
ATLC WATERS.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  257
SHORT TERM...DRAG 257
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 257
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 257
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211858
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO VIRGINIA PRODUCES OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
(G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE
00Z/21 NSSL WRF IN WEAK WAA AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA
WHERE SBLI AT 18Z NEAR -7. EXPLAINING THE AXIS OF THE ONGOING
STORMS AT 1830Z...I CANNOT EASILY DO. IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND
PROXIMITY TO THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED IN OUR CWA MORE TO
THE NORTH RATHER THAN TO THE SOUTH. PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE
1200J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE SREF AND GEFS POPS ARE 20-30
PCT HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE ISSUING AT 330 PM.

AS NOTED EARLIER: THE 12Z NAM CONTG A THEME OF 2 INCH IN ONE HOUR
TSTMS SOMEWHERE IN E CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL NJ THIS EVENING. VIL
NEAR 60 AT 1845Z CENTRAL PA IS EITHER VERIFYING THAT RAIN OR
SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL.

WHILE THE PLACEMENT OF THE NAM SHORT TERM QPF IS POSSIBLY WRONG...THE
IDEA I THINK IS CORRECT. A PTN OF E CENTRAL OR NE PA IN N OR CENTRAL
NJ SHOULD RECEIVE SOME STRONG TSTORMS VERY LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING.

OTRW CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS DELMARVA AS BLOWOFF CLOUD DEBRIS FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY CONVECTION SPREADS EWD.


AFTER MIDNIGHT...NORMALLY ANY EVENING CONVECTION DIMINISHES BUT
THE ECMWF TRIES TO INCREASE RFALL AFTER 06Z WITH THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING SEWD FROM NYS. JUST VERY UNSURE OF WHAT EXISTS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI CONVECTIVE
RELATED PRODUCTS ISSUED THIS EVENING.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED THE SHOWER AND
TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE 330 AM THURSDAY FCST
POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE 12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE OTHER HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER THIS AFTERNOON...SPOTTY MVFR CIGS IN E PA SHOULD LIFT
THE VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT ELSEWHERE WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW. LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE THIS
AFTN...MAINLY VCNTY KRDG AND KABE. A NW WIND GUST TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH A LATE AFTN TSTM.

TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING WITH NW WIND G25-35 KT
AND BRIEF IFR CONDS...MAINLY IN THE 23Z-03Z TIME FRAME THOUGH
SHOWERS MAY LINGER LATE AT NIGHT VCNTY KACY. OTRW VFR CIGS MAY
DEGRADE TO MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG TOWARD 09Z. CONFIDENCE ON
DEGRADED CIGS/VSBY LATE AT NIGHT IS BELOW AVG.

FRIDAY...CIGS 2500-4000 FT WITH LOWER IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND THE WIND TURNING LIGHT EASTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM
THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY
TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA NE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE
ATLC WATERS.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  257
SHORT TERM...DRAG 257
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 257
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 257
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 211613
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1213 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO VIRGINIA PRODUCES OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1210 PM ESTF HAS REDUCED RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST COMPLETELY
THIS AFTERNOON. ENHANCED WORDING CONTINUES AND SLIGHTLY EXPANDED
IN E PA AND N 2/3RDS NJ IN PART DUE TO THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND PRIOR
ECMWF MASS FIELD PREDICTORS. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER
THAN MODELED SFC DEWPOINTS IN SE PA N MD ALSO SUGGEST GREATER
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR MID AFTN DEVELOPMENT.

12Z SOUNDING FROM IAD/WAL/APG AND OKX REVIEWED. MAX TEMPS 83-86.

UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL
HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS (G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW
NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AN IN WEAK WAA AHEAD
OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA. THAT DOESN`T RULE OUT THE DELMARVA
BUT FOR SOME TIME NOW...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY TO
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED NORTH RATHER THAN SOUTH. PWAT
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE 1200J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

OTRW...A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. THERE IS STILL MUCH MORE LOW CLOUDINESS OVER
SE PA...NE MD AND N DE THIS MORNING THAN ANTICIPATED YDY. THIS
SHOULD START THINNING AND LIFTING BY NOON.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
STILL UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE.

NOTING THE 12Z NAM CONTG A THEME OF 2INCH HOURLY TSTMS SOMEWHERE
IN E CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL NJ THIS EVENING. WHILE THE PLACEMENT
IS POSSIBLY WRONG...THE IDEA I THINK IS CORRECT. A PTN OF E CENTRAL
OR NE PA IN N OR CENTRAL NJ SHOULD RECEIVE SOME STRONG TSTORMS
VERY LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE OTHER HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS IN E PA NE MD AND N DE THROUGH 17 OR 18Z
LINGERLING LONGER THAN EXPECTED OTRW VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT THIS
AFTERNOON BUT LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND. BUT A NW WIND GUST TO 35 KT POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH A LATE AFTN TSTM NEAR AND N OF KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY DEGRADE TO MVFR CONDS IN FOG LATE. IFR
CONDS IN LEFTOVER EARLY NIGHT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY...CIGS 2500-4000 FT WITH LOWER IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND A WIND TURNING LIGHT EASTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM
THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY
TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA NE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE
ATLC WATERS.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 213
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1213
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 1213
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211613
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1213 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO VIRGINIA PRODUCES OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1210 PM ESTF HAS REDUCED RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST COMPLETELY
THIS AFTERNOON. ENHANCED WORDING CONTINUES AND SLIGHTLY EXPANDED
IN E PA AND N 2/3RDS NJ IN PART DUE TO THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND PRIOR
ECMWF MASS FIELD PREDICTORS. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER
THAN MODELED SFC DEWPOINTS IN SE PA N MD ALSO SUGGEST GREATER
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR MID AFTN DEVELOPMENT.

12Z SOUNDING FROM IAD/WAL/APG AND OKX REVIEWED. MAX TEMPS 83-86.

UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL
HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS (G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW
NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AN IN WEAK WAA AHEAD
OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA. THAT DOESN`T RULE OUT THE DELMARVA
BUT FOR SOME TIME NOW...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY TO
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED NORTH RATHER THAN SOUTH. PWAT
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE 1200J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

OTRW...A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. THERE IS STILL MUCH MORE LOW CLOUDINESS OVER
SE PA...NE MD AND N DE THIS MORNING THAN ANTICIPATED YDY. THIS
SHOULD START THINNING AND LIFTING BY NOON.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
STILL UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE.

NOTING THE 12Z NAM CONTG A THEME OF 2INCH HOURLY TSTMS SOMEWHERE
IN E CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL NJ THIS EVENING. WHILE THE PLACEMENT
IS POSSIBLY WRONG...THE IDEA I THINK IS CORRECT. A PTN OF E CENTRAL
OR NE PA IN N OR CENTRAL NJ SHOULD RECEIVE SOME STRONG TSTORMS
VERY LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE OTHER HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS IN E PA NE MD AND N DE THROUGH 17 OR 18Z
LINGERLING LONGER THAN EXPECTED OTRW VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT THIS
AFTERNOON BUT LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND. BUT A NW WIND GUST TO 35 KT POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH A LATE AFTN TSTM NEAR AND N OF KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY DEGRADE TO MVFR CONDS IN FOG LATE. IFR
CONDS IN LEFTOVER EARLY NIGHT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY...CIGS 2500-4000 FT WITH LOWER IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND A WIND TURNING LIGHT EASTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM
THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY
TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA NE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE
ATLC WATERS.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 213
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1213
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 1213
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 211424
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1024 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO VIRGINIA PRODUCES OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1010AM ESTF HAS REDUCED RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST AND ENHANCED
THE WORDING IN NE PA AND NW NJ IN PART DUE TO THE 12Z NAM AND
PRIOR ECMWF MASS FIELD PREDICTORS. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER
THAN MODELED SFC DEWPOINTS IN SE PA N MD ALSO SUGGEST GREATER POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY FOR MID AFTN DEVELOPMENT.

12Z SOUNDING FROM IAD/WAL/APG AND OKX REVIEWED. MAX TEMPS 83-86.

UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL
HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS (G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW
NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AN IN WEAK WAA AHEAD
OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA. THAT DOESN`T RULE OUT THE DELMARVA
BUT FOR SOME TIME NOW...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY TO
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED NORTH RATHER THAN SOUTH. PWAT
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE 400-600J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

OTRW...A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. THERE IS STILL MUCH MORE LOW CLOUDINESS OVER
SE PA...NE MD AND N DE THIS MORNING THAN ANTICIPATED YDY. THIS
SHOULD START THINNING AND LIFTING BY NOON.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
STILL UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE.

NOTING THE 12Z NAM CONTG A THEME OF 2INCH HOURLY TSTMS SOMEWHERE
IN E CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL NJ THIS EVENING. WHILE THE PLACEMENT
IS POSSIBLY WRONG...THE IDEA I THINK IS CORRECT. A PTN OF E CENTRAL
OR NE PA IN N OR CENTRAL NJ SHOULD RECEIVE SOME STRONG TSTORMS
VERY LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE OTHER HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN E PA NE MD AND N DE THROUGH 16Z OTRW
VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT THIS AFTERNOON BUT LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. BUT A NW WIND GUST
TO 35 KT POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AFTN TSTM NEAR AND N OF KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY DEGRADE TO MVFR CONDS IN FOG LATE. IFR
CONDS IN LEFTOVER EARLY NIGHT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY...CIGS 2500-4000 FT WITH LOWER IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND A WIND TURNING LIGHT EASTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM
THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY
TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA NE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE
ATLC WATERS.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  1023
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1023
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 1023
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 211424
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1024 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO VIRGINIA PRODUCES OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1010AM ESTF HAS REDUCED RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST AND ENHANCED
THE WORDING IN NE PA AND NW NJ IN PART DUE TO THE 12Z NAM AND
PRIOR ECMWF MASS FIELD PREDICTORS. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER
THAN MODELED SFC DEWPOINTS IN SE PA N MD ALSO SUGGEST GREATER POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY FOR MID AFTN DEVELOPMENT.

12Z SOUNDING FROM IAD/WAL/APG AND OKX REVIEWED. MAX TEMPS 83-86.

UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL
HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS (G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW
NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AN IN WEAK WAA AHEAD
OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA. THAT DOESN`T RULE OUT THE DELMARVA
BUT FOR SOME TIME NOW...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY TO
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED NORTH RATHER THAN SOUTH. PWAT
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE 400-600J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

OTRW...A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. THERE IS STILL MUCH MORE LOW CLOUDINESS OVER
SE PA...NE MD AND N DE THIS MORNING THAN ANTICIPATED YDY. THIS
SHOULD START THINNING AND LIFTING BY NOON.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
STILL UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE.

NOTING THE 12Z NAM CONTG A THEME OF 2INCH HOURLY TSTMS SOMEWHERE
IN E CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL NJ THIS EVENING. WHILE THE PLACEMENT
IS POSSIBLY WRONG...THE IDEA I THINK IS CORRECT. A PTN OF E CENTRAL
OR NE PA IN N OR CENTRAL NJ SHOULD RECEIVE SOME STRONG TSTORMS
VERY LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE OTHER HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN E PA NE MD AND N DE THROUGH 16Z OTRW
VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT THIS AFTERNOON BUT LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. BUT A NW WIND GUST
TO 35 KT POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AFTN TSTM NEAR AND N OF KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY DEGRADE TO MVFR CONDS IN FOG LATE. IFR
CONDS IN LEFTOVER EARLY NIGHT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY...CIGS 2500-4000 FT WITH LOWER IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND A WIND TURNING LIGHT EASTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM
THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY
TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA NE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE
ATLC WATERS.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  1023
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1023
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 1023
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211342
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO VIRGINIA PRODUCES OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930AM ESTF NO CHANGE FROM THE 820AM UPDATED ESTF. WE WILL RERVIEW
WITH NEW GUIDANCE AND MAY ISSUE UPDATED WORDING ENHANCEMENTS SOMETIME
BETWEEN 1030AM AND 1230PM.

12Z SOUNDING FROM IAD/WAL/APG AND OKX REVIEWED. MAX TEMPS 83-86.

UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL
HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS (G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW
NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AN IN WEAK WAA AHEAD
OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA. THAT DOESN`T RULE OUT THE DELMARVA
BUT FOR SOME TIME NOW...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY TO
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED NORTH RATHER THAN SOUTH. PWAT
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE 400-600J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

OTRW...A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. THERE IS MUCH MORE LOW CLOUDINESS OVER SE
PA...NE MD AND N DE THIS MORNING THAN ANTICIPATED YDY.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
STILL UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE OTHER HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN SE PA NE MD AND N DE THROUGH 15Z
OTRW VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT BUT LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...MAINLY THIS AFTN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. BUT A WIND GUST TO
35 KT POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AFTN TSTM NEAR AND N OF KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY DEGRADE TO MVFR CONDS IN FOG LATE. IFR
CONDS IN LEFTOVER EARLY NIGHT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY...

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY USE (INTERNET
AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS
BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE
NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA NE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE
ATLC WATERS.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 942
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 942
CLIMATE...942








000
FXUS61 KPHI 211342
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO VIRGINIA PRODUCES OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930AM ESTF NO CHANGE FROM THE 820AM UPDATED ESTF. WE WILL RERVIEW
WITH NEW GUIDANCE AND MAY ISSUE UPDATED WORDING ENHANCEMENTS SOMETIME
BETWEEN 1030AM AND 1230PM.

12Z SOUNDING FROM IAD/WAL/APG AND OKX REVIEWED. MAX TEMPS 83-86.

UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL
HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS (G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW
NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AN IN WEAK WAA AHEAD
OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA. THAT DOESN`T RULE OUT THE DELMARVA
BUT FOR SOME TIME NOW...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY TO
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED NORTH RATHER THAN SOUTH. PWAT
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE 400-600J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

OTRW...A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. THERE IS MUCH MORE LOW CLOUDINESS OVER SE
PA...NE MD AND N DE THIS MORNING THAN ANTICIPATED YDY.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
STILL UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE OTHER HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN SE PA NE MD AND N DE THROUGH 15Z
OTRW VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT BUT LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...MAINLY THIS AFTN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. BUT A WIND GUST TO
35 KT POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AFTN TSTM NEAR AND N OF KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY DEGRADE TO MVFR CONDS IN FOG LATE. IFR
CONDS IN LEFTOVER EARLY NIGHT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY...

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY USE (INTERNET
AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS
BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE
NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA NE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE
ATLC WATERS.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 942
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 942
CLIMATE...942







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211317
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
917 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO VIRGINIA PRODUCES OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12Z SOUNDING FROM IAD/WAL/APG AND OKX REVIEWED. MAX TEMPS 83-86.

UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL
HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS (G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW
NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AN IN WEAK WAA AHEAD
OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA. THAT DOESN`T RULE OUT THE DELMARVA
BUT FOR SOME TIME NOW...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY TO
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED NORTH RATHER THAN SOUTH. PWAT
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE 400-600J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

OTRW...A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
STILL UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE OTHER HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN SE PA NE MD AND N DE THROUGH 15Z
OTRW VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT BUT LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...MAINLY THIS AFTN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. BUT A WIND GUST TO
35 KT POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AFTN TSTM NEAR AND N OF KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY DEGRADE TO MVFR CONDS IN FOG LATE. IFR
CONDS IN LEFTOVER EARLY NIGHT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY...

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA NE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE
ATLC WATERS.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON 917
NEAR TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 917
SHORT TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 917
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 917
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 917







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211317
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
917 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO VIRGINIA PRODUCES OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12Z SOUNDING FROM IAD/WAL/APG AND OKX REVIEWED. MAX TEMPS 83-86.

UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL
HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS (G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW
NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AN IN WEAK WAA AHEAD
OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA. THAT DOESN`T RULE OUT THE DELMARVA
BUT FOR SOME TIME NOW...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY TO
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED NORTH RATHER THAN SOUTH. PWAT
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE 400-600J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

OTRW...A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
STILL UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE OTHER HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN SE PA NE MD AND N DE THROUGH 15Z
OTRW VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT BUT LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...MAINLY THIS AFTN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. BUT A WIND GUST TO
35 KT POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AFTN TSTM NEAR AND N OF KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY DEGRADE TO MVFR CONDS IN FOG LATE. IFR
CONDS IN LEFTOVER EARLY NIGHT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY...

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA NE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE
ATLC WATERS.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON 917
NEAR TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 917
SHORT TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 917
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 917
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 917








000
FXUS61 KPHI 210734
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL SEE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS
AS ONE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH, WHILE
ANOTHER IS SITUATED OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL
EVENTUALLY BUILD SOUTH OVER THE REGION BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
REMAIN THE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF AREAS OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW INDIVIDUAL
VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE FIRST
IS EXITING OUR AREA TO THE NORTHEAST, AND WILL BRING WITH IT IT`S
AREA OF SHOWERS. THE OTHERS ARE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THE HRRR AND RUC HAVE THESE DRIFTING EASTWARD AND
MOSTLY DRYING OUT OR LIFTING TO OUR NORTH BEFORE THEY GET HERE.

AFTER THESE SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING, WE SHOULD GET A PERIOD FROM
MID/LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SHOWER FREE. HOWEVER, AS WE MOVE INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, WE
EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE TO OUR WEST AND MOVE INTO OUR
AREA. THESE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR AREA AS THE MID/UPPER LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WHILE A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE LOW. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
SNAKED FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA SOUTHWARD THROUGH VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA. NONE OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA TODAY AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY FORECAST TODAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
NOT MUCH SHEAR OR MUCH OF A WIND FIELD, SO WE DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME. IF THERE ARE ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY,
AND IF THEY GROW TALL ENOUGH, SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE AND
WITH THE WETBULB AS LOW AS IT IS, SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. PW VALUES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE VORTICITY IMPULSE WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS THE MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. ALSO, A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ALONG THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AS IT TRIES TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS MAY KEEP A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SHOWERS MAY LAST INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. AS THE ENERGY FROM THE VORTICITY
IMPULSE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA, SHOWERS SHOULD MOSTLY END BY
DAYBREAK.

FOR LOWS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AS
THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE OTHER
HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A
FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERALL, WE EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF SITES TODAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CONDITIONS LATER TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIG AND/OR VSBY IS POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY FOR ABE/RDG/MIV, BUT THIS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR BY MID-MORNING.

WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS, TO DEVELOP
TO OUR WEST TROUGH THE DAY AND MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRENCE AND TIMING IS
LOW, SO THEY WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS, SO WE
HAVE INCLUDED MODERATE SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. ONE MODEL GIVES US VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHILE THE
OTHER BRINGS EVERYONE TO IFR. NOT CONFIDENT ON IFR, BUT THINK WE
COULD GET SOME LOWER CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

WINDS TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEAS 2-3
FEET OR LESS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 210734
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL SEE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS
AS ONE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH, WHILE
ANOTHER IS SITUATED OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL
EVENTUALLY BUILD SOUTH OVER THE REGION BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
REMAIN THE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE ARE A COUPLE OF AREAS OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, ALL ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW INDIVIDUAL
VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THE FIRST
IS EXITING OUR AREA TO THE NORTHEAST, AND WILL BRING WITH IT IT`S
AREA OF SHOWERS. THE OTHERS ARE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA. THE HRRR AND RUC HAVE THESE DRIFTING EASTWARD AND
MOSTLY DRYING OUT OR LIFTING TO OUR NORTH BEFORE THEY GET HERE.

AFTER THESE SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING, WE SHOULD GET A PERIOD FROM
MID/LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SHOWER FREE. HOWEVER, AS WE MOVE INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, WE
EXPECT SHOWERS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE TO OUR WEST AND MOVE INTO OUR
AREA. THESE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSE THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO OUR AREA AS THE MID/UPPER LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WHILE A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE LOW. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
SNAKED FROM WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA SOUTHWARD THROUGH VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA. NONE OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA TODAY AS THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGH THE DAY.

THERE REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY FORECAST TODAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
NOT MUCH SHEAR OR MUCH OF A WIND FIELD, SO WE DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME. IF THERE ARE ANY THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY,
AND IF THEY GROW TALL ENOUGH, SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE AND
WITH THE WETBULB AS LOW AS IT IS, SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. PW VALUES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO
SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE VORTICITY IMPULSE WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AS THE MID/UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT
EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. ALSO, A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ALONG THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AS IT TRIES TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS MAY KEEP A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SHOWERS MAY LAST INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. AS THE ENERGY FROM THE VORTICITY
IMPULSE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA, SHOWERS SHOULD MOSTLY END BY
DAYBREAK.

FOR LOWS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AS
THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE OTHER
HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A
FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERALL, WE EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF SITES TODAY,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CONDITIONS LATER TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIG AND/OR VSBY IS POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY FOR ABE/RDG/MIV, BUT THIS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR BY MID-MORNING.

WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS, TO DEVELOP
TO OUR WEST TROUGH THE DAY AND MOVE INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRENCE AND TIMING IS
LOW, SO THEY WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS, SO WE
HAVE INCLUDED MODERATE SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. ONE MODEL GIVES US VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHILE THE
OTHER BRINGS EVERYONE TO IFR. NOT CONFIDENT ON IFR, BUT THINK WE
COULD GET SOME LOWER CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

WINDS TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH SEAS 2-3
FEET OR LESS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210124
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH LATER FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF A CLOSING OFF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LIFT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA IS
MORE STABLE, HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOME FORCING
SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS MAY OCCUR
ESPECIALLY LATE AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ANY MAINLY ISOLATED LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE
TIED TO WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY GRADIENT.
WE WILL THEREFORE KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN FOR MOST PLACES AS A FEW
CELLS COULD POP NEARLY ANYWHERE. THE HIGHER POPS THOUGH WERE
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS ESPECIALLY LATE, AS THESE
LOCALES ARE CLOSER TO THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE AND SOME HEIGHT FALLS.
THE INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW ENOUGH, THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER
ATTM.

OTHERWISE, ENOUGH MOISTURE AND THE LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MOST LOCALES. THE
HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THEN
THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WNW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
YORK STATE SHOULD REDEVELOP HEAVY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN OVER
E PA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO W NJ AND THE MD E SHORE CLOSER TO THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM
THE VCNTY OF DCA. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS
TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE
RIVER).

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH (THU NIGHT AND
FRIDAY) AND THE SOUTH (FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY) WILL FORCE US TO KEEP
LOW CHC POPS OR SLGT CHC POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS. THE SYSTEMS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY HEAVY RAINS HOWEVER. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALLOWING DRY AIR TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE WILL START NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
MONDAY. READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY AND
THEN POSSIBLY GO ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET. A FEW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-8 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO UNDER 5 KNOTS. THERE COULD
BE SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS WITH FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY
IF THE CLOUDS THIN FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ESPECIALLY FARTHER INLAND, WHICH MAY LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO BRIEFLY IFR. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS,
ALTHOUGH POTENTIALLY LOCALLY GUSTY BRIEFLY WITH A THUNDERSTORM.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS W/ SCT SHOWERS.
SAT THRU MON...LOW END SCA SEAS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN. MOSTLY FAIR WX.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 210124
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH LATER FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF A CLOSING OFF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING DOWN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LIFT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS ACROSS OUR AREA IS
MORE STABLE, HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOME FORCING
SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS MAY OCCUR
ESPECIALLY LATE AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ANY MAINLY ISOLATED LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE
TIED TO WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY GRADIENT.
WE WILL THEREFORE KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN FOR MOST PLACES AS A FEW
CELLS COULD POP NEARLY ANYWHERE. THE HIGHER POPS THOUGH WERE
MAINTAINED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS ESPECIALLY LATE, AS THESE
LOCALES ARE CLOSER TO THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE AND SOME HEIGHT FALLS.
THE INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW ENOUGH, THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER
ATTM.

OTHERWISE, ENOUGH MOISTURE AND THE LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MOST LOCALES. THE
HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THEN
THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WNW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
YORK STATE SHOULD REDEVELOP HEAVY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN OVER
E PA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO W NJ AND THE MD E SHORE CLOSER TO THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM
THE VCNTY OF DCA. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS
TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE
RIVER).

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH (THU NIGHT AND
FRIDAY) AND THE SOUTH (FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY) WILL FORCE US TO KEEP
LOW CHC POPS OR SLGT CHC POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS. THE SYSTEMS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY HEAVY RAINS HOWEVER. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALLOWING DRY AIR TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE WILL START NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
MONDAY. READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY AND
THEN POSSIBLY GO ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR OVERALL WITH CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET. A FEW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-8 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO UNDER 5 KNOTS. THERE COULD
BE SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS WITH FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY
IF THE CLOUDS THIN FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ESPECIALLY FARTHER INLAND, WHICH MAY LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO BRIEFLY IFR. THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS,
ALTHOUGH POTENTIALLY LOCALLY GUSTY BRIEFLY WITH A THUNDERSTORM.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS W/ SCT SHOWERS.
SAT THRU MON...LOW END SCA SEAS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN. MOSTLY FAIR WX.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 202113
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
513 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH LATER FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF A MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING DOWN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND FRAGMENT AS IT ENTERS OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENT AND ALSO LESS MOISTURE. THERE IS
SOME AIRMASS RECOVERY OCCURRING TO THE WEST OF THE LINE AND AN
ANALYSIS SHOWED DEEPER MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE WEST. WHILE SOME
SHOWERS /PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER/ SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE
EAST TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, THEY SHOULD BE WEAKER. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR
TRENDS AND ADJUST THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. IN ADDITION, SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR WASHINGTON DC HOWEVER THIS IN
WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE, ENOUGH MOISTURE AND THE LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST AND SOUTH
WHERE THE SKY HAS CLEARED THUS FAR. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS
BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WNW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
YORK STATE SHOULD REDEVELOP HEAVY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN OVER
E PA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO W NJ AND THE MD E SHORE CLOSER TO THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM
THE VCNTY OF DCA. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS
TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE
RIVER).

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH (THU NIGHT AND
FRIDAY) AND THE SOUTH (FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY) WILL FORCE US TO KEEP
LOW CHC POPS OR SLGT CHC POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS. THE SYSTEMS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY HEAVY RAINS HOWEVER. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALLOWING DRY AIR TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE WILL START NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
MONDAY. READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY AND
THEN POSSIBLY GO ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS
WITH FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ESPECIALLY FARTHER INLAND, WHICH MAY LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO BRIEFLY IFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS W/ SCT SHOWERS.
SAT THRU MON...LOW END SCA SEAS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN. MOSTLY FAIR WX.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 202113
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
513 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH LATER FRIDAY, THEN REMAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF A MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING DOWN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL LIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND FRAGMENT AS IT ENTERS OUR FAR
WESTERN ZONES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE AS IT ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENT AND ALSO LESS MOISTURE. THERE IS
SOME AIRMASS RECOVERY OCCURRING TO THE WEST OF THE LINE AND AN
ANALYSIS SHOWED DEEPER MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE WEST. WHILE SOME
SHOWERS /PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER/ SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE
EAST TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, THEY SHOULD BE WEAKER. WE WILL MONITOR RADAR
TRENDS AND ADJUST THE POPS ACCORDINGLY. IN ADDITION, SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR WASHINGTON DC HOWEVER THIS IN
WITHIN AN AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY.

OTHERWISE, ENOUGH MOISTURE AND THE LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDS SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY EAST AND SOUTH
WHERE THE SKY HAS CLEARED THUS FAR. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS
BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WNW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
YORK STATE SHOULD REDEVELOP HEAVY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN OVER
E PA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO W NJ AND THE MD E SHORE CLOSER TO THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM
THE VCNTY OF DCA. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS
TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE
RIVER).

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH (THU NIGHT AND
FRIDAY) AND THE SOUTH (FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY) WILL FORCE US TO KEEP
LOW CHC POPS OR SLGT CHC POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS. THE SYSTEMS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY HEAVY RAINS HOWEVER. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALLOWING DRY AIR TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE WILL START NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
MONDAY. READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY AND
THEN POSSIBLY GO ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST. SOME SHOWERS SHOULD BE AROUND MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS
WITH FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ESPECIALLY FARTHER INLAND, WHICH MAY LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO BRIEFLY IFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS W/ SCT SHOWERS.
SAT THRU MON...LOW END SCA SEAS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN. MOSTLY FAIR WX.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 201856
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
256 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MORE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH LATER FRIDAY AND REMAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORT MOVING ESEWD THRU NORTHERN PA SHOULD SHOVE THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN CENTRAL PA EWD INTO PARTS OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE BAND TO
PROBABLY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. STILL A PWAT OF 1.5" PLUS
PERMITS SOME OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING TO BE POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN E PA.

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WNW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
YORK STATE SHOULD REDEVELOP HEAVY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN OVER
E PA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO W NJ AND THE MD E SHORE CLOSER TO THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM
THE VCNTY OF DCA. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS
TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE
RIVER).

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH (THU NIGHT AND
FRIDAY) AND THE SOUTH (FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY) WILL FORCE US TO KEEP
LOW CHC POPS OR SLGT CHC POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS. THE SYSTEMS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY HEAVY RAINS HOWEVER. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALLOWING DRY AIR TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE WILL START NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
MONDAY. READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY AND
THEN POSSIBLY GO ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT SPREAD EWD DURING THE NIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS W/ SCT SHOWERS.
SAT THRU MON...LOW END SCA SEAS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN. MOSTLY FAIR WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE ARE AWARE HOW DRY ITS BEEN RECENTLY IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...I80
NORTH AND IN FACT 70 TO 90 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST YEAR AND 5 O
25 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST MONTH. WHATEVER RAINFALL OCCURS THERE
NEEDS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRI EVENING...OTRW WE PROBABLY
NEED TO WAIT TIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG








000
FXUS61 KPHI 201856
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
256 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MORE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH LATER FRIDAY AND REMAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SHORT MOVING ESEWD THRU NORTHERN PA SHOULD SHOVE THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN CENTRAL PA EWD INTO PARTS OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE BAND TO
PROBABLY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. STILL A PWAT OF 1.5" PLUS
PERMITS SOME OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING TO BE POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN E PA.

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WNW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
YORK STATE SHOULD REDEVELOP HEAVY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN OVER
E PA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO W NJ AND THE MD E SHORE CLOSER TO THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM
THE VCNTY OF DCA. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS
TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE
RIVER).

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH (THU NIGHT AND
FRIDAY) AND THE SOUTH (FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY) WILL FORCE US TO KEEP
LOW CHC POPS OR SLGT CHC POPS FOR THOSE PERIODS. THE SYSTEMS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY HEAVY RAINS HOWEVER. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALLOWING DRY AIR TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE WILL START NEAR NORMAL
FRIDAY...BEFORE DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
MONDAY. READINGS WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL NEXT TUESDAY AND
THEN POSSIBLY GO ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT SPREAD EWD DURING THE NIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS W/ SCT SHOWERS.
SAT THRU MON...LOW END SCA SEAS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN. MOSTLY FAIR WX.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE ARE AWARE HOW DRY ITS BEEN RECENTLY IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...I80
NORTH AND IN FACT 70 TO 90 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST YEAR AND 5 O
25 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST MONTH. WHATEVER RAINFALL OCCURS THERE
NEEDS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRI EVENING...OTRW WE PROBABLY
NEED TO WAIT TIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201829
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
229 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORT MOVING ESEWD THRU NORTHERN PA SHOULD SHOVE THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN CENTRAL PA EWD INTO PARTS OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE BAND TO
PROBABLY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. STILL A PWAT OF 1.5" PLUS
PERMITS SOME OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING TO BE POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN E PA.

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WNW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
YORK STATE SHOULD REDEVELOP HEAVY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN OVER
E PA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO W NJ AND THE MD E SHORE CLOSER TO THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM
THE VCNTY OF DCA. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS
TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE
RIVER).

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY HELP KEEP A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT SAGS TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHEAST, KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM EASTERN CANADA. BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES FULL CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES THAT AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, 925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES LOWER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD START TO GET MORE OF A RETURN SURFACE
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN, ALLOWING
FOR REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT SPREAD EWD DURING THE NIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...PERIODS OF LOW END VFR OR MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A LONG FETCH DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE ARE AWARE HOW DRY ITS BEEN RECENTLY IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...I80
NORTH AND IN FACT 70 TO 90 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST YEAR AND 5 O
25 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST MONTH. WHATEVER RAINFALL OCCURS THERE
NEEDS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRI EVENING...OTRW WE PROBABLY
NEED TO WAIT TIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  229
SHORT TERM...DRAG 229
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 201829
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
229 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORT MOVING ESEWD THRU NORTHERN PA SHOULD SHOVE THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN CENTRAL PA EWD INTO PARTS OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE BAND TO
PROBABLY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. STILL A PWAT OF 1.5" PLUS
PERMITS SOME OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING TO BE POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN E PA.

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WNW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
YORK STATE SHOULD REDEVELOP HEAVY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN OVER
E PA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO W NJ AND THE MD E SHORE CLOSER TO THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM
THE VCNTY OF DCA. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS
TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE
RIVER).

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY HELP KEEP A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT SAGS TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHEAST, KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM EASTERN CANADA. BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES FULL CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES THAT AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, 925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES LOWER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD START TO GET MORE OF A RETURN SURFACE
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN, ALLOWING
FOR REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT SPREAD EWD DURING THE NIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...PERIODS OF LOW END VFR OR MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A LONG FETCH DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE ARE AWARE HOW DRY ITS BEEN RECENTLY IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...I80
NORTH AND IN FACT 70 TO 90 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST YEAR AND 5 O
25 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST MONTH. WHATEVER RAINFALL OCCURS THERE
NEEDS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRI EVENING...OTRW WE PROBABLY
NEED TO WAIT TIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  229
SHORT TERM...DRAG 229
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201818
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
218 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORT MOVING ESEWD THRU NORTHERN PA SHOULD SHOVE THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN CENTRAL PA EWD INTO PARTS OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE BAND TO
PROBABLY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. STILL A PWAT OF 1.5" PLUS
PERMITS SOME OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING TO BE POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN E PA.

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WNW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
YORK STATE SHOULD REDEVELOP HEAVY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN OVER
E PA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO W NJ AND THE MD E SHORE CLOSER TO THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM
THE VCNTY OF DCA. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS
TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE
RIVER).

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY HELP KEEP A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT SAGS TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHEAST, KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM EASTERN CANADA. BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES FULL CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES THAT AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, 925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES LOWER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD START TO GET MORE OF A RETURN SURFACE
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN, ALLOWING
FOR REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT SPREAD EWD DURING THE NIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...PERIODS OF LOW END VFR OR MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A LONG FETCH DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE ARE AWARE HOW DRY ITS BEEN RECENTLY IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...I80
NORTH AND IN FACT 70 TO 90 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST YEAR AND 5 O
25 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST MONTH. WHATEVER RAINFALL OCCURS THERE
NEEDS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRI EVENING...OTRW WE PROBABLY
NEED TO WAIT TIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 217
SHORT TERM...DRAG 217
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 217
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 217
CLIMATE...217








000
FXUS61 KPHI 201818
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
218 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK SHORT MOVING ESEWD THRU NORTHERN PA SHOULD SHOVE THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN CENTRAL PA EWD INTO PARTS OF OUR
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH A TENDENCY FOR THE BAND TO
PROBABLY DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT. STILL A PWAT OF 1.5" PLUS
PERMITS SOME OF THE SHOWERS THIS EVENING TO BE POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY
HEAVY IN E PA.

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WNW FLOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW
YORK STATE SHOULD REDEVELOP HEAVY CONVECTION DURING THE AFTN OVER
E PA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO W NJ AND THE MD E SHORE CLOSER TO THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD FROM
THE VCNTY OF DCA. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND
1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS
TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE
RIVER).

FORECAST BASIS: POPS WERE BLENDED NCEP MOS POPS WITH THE 09Z SREF AND
THAT GIVES THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME NEEDED RAIN TO E PA. OTRW A 50
50 BLEND OF 12Z/20 NCEP MOS EXCEPT BLENDED RGEM SKY WITH NAM SKY
AND GFS MOS GUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY HELP KEEP A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT SAGS TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHEAST, KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM EASTERN CANADA. BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES FULL CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES THAT AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, 925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES LOWER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD START TO GET MORE OF A RETURN SURFACE
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN, ALLOWING
FOR REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT SPREAD EWD DURING THE NIGHT WITH A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SOUTH WIND.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...PERIODS OF LOW END VFR OR MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A LONG FETCH DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE ARE AWARE HOW DRY ITS BEEN RECENTLY IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...I80
NORTH AND IN FACT 70 TO 90 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST YEAR AND 5 O
25 PCT OF NORMAL THERE THE PAST MONTH. WHATEVER RAINFALL OCCURS THERE
NEEDS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN TONIGHT AND FRI EVENING...OTRW WE PROBABLY
NEED TO WAIT TIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 217
SHORT TERM...DRAG 217
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 217
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 217
CLIMATE...217







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201343
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
943 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
830 AND 930 AM AFD UPDATES:

MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN PROBABLY FAVORING MORE SUN. ANOTHER NICE
DAY.

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN WPA/WVA ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-
LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS THAT
RESIDES EAST OF THE OH VLY. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO REACH
CENTRAL PA BY MIDDAY AND EASTERN PA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON JUST OF OUR CWA.

NO CHANGE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM THE 330AM/630AM FCST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
THE APPALACHIAN RIDGE. FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE IN REGARDS TO HOW
FAR EAST SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MENTIONED AS MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW CONVECTION DECAYING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS OVER NJ/DE. CLOUDS COVER, WHICH WILL INCREASES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH, WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. OFFICIAL MIN TEMP FORECAST SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TO NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. HOWEVER, THE MID/UPPER- LEVEL LOW WILL SWING
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS, AND WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH SHEAR OR MUCH OF A WIND FIELD, SO WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL
HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN
NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE RIVER).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY HELP KEEP A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT SAGS TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHEAST, KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM EASTERN CANADA. BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES FULL CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES THAT AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, 925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES LOWER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD START TO GET MORE OF A RETURN SURFACE
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN, ALLOWING
FOR REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS LIKELY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. PROB30 GROUP FOR SHRA
ADDED FOR RDG/ABE EARLY THIS EVE WHEN A DISTURBANCE MOVES THRU.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...PERIODS OF LOW END VFR OR MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KT WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTN AS HIPRES MOVES OFFSHORE. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS TO 15 KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A LONG FETCH DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 943
SHORT TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 943
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON 943
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON 943








000
FXUS61 KPHI 201343
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
943 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
830 AND 930 AM AFD UPDATES:

MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN PROBABLY FAVORING MORE SUN. ANOTHER NICE
DAY.

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN WPA/WVA ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-
LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS THAT
RESIDES EAST OF THE OH VLY. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO REACH
CENTRAL PA BY MIDDAY AND EASTERN PA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON JUST OF OUR CWA.

NO CHANGE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM THE 330AM/630AM FCST.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. EXPECT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
THE APPALACHIAN RIDGE. FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE IN REGARDS TO HOW
FAR EAST SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MENTIONED AS MODELS GENERALLY
SHOW CONVECTION DECAYING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS OVER NJ/DE. CLOUDS COVER, WHICH WILL INCREASES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH, WILL LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. OFFICIAL MIN TEMP FORECAST SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
TO NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. HOWEVER, THE MID/UPPER- LEVEL LOW WILL SWING
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MID- ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS, AND WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH SHEAR OR MUCH OF A WIND FIELD, SO WE DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL
HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY IN
NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE RIVER).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT...A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY HELP KEEP A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT SAGS TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHEAST, KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM EASTERN CANADA. BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES FULL CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES THAT AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, 925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES LOWER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD START TO GET MORE OF A RETURN SURFACE
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN, ALLOWING
FOR REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS LIKELY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. PROB30 GROUP FOR SHRA
ADDED FOR RDG/ABE EARLY THIS EVE WHEN A DISTURBANCE MOVES THRU.

THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR CIGS. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO BRIEFLY IFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...PERIODS OF LOW END VFR OR MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KT WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
AFTN AS HIPRES MOVES OFFSHORE. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS TO 15 KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A LONG FETCH DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 943
SHORT TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 943
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON 943
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON 943







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201232
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
832 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN PROBABLY FAVORING MORE SUN. ANOTHER NICE DAY.

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN WPA/WVA ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-
LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS THAT
RESIDES EAST OF THE OH VLY. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO REACH
CENTRAL PA BY MIDDAY AND EASTERN PA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON JUST OF OUR CWA.

NO CHANGE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM THE 330AM/630AM FCST.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIAN RIDGE. FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE IN REGARDS TO HOW FAR
EAST SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MENTIONED AS MODELS GENERALLY SHOW
CONVECTION DECAYING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS OVER NJ/DE. CLOUDS COVER, WHICH WILL INCREASES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH, WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT. OFFICIAL MIN TEMP FORECAST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

ON THURSDAY, THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK. HOWEVER, THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
SWING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS, AND WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH SHEAR OR MUCH OF A WIND FIELD, SO WE
DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL
HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY
IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE RIVER).

THURSDAY NIGHT, A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY HELP KEEP A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT SAGS TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHEAST, KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM EASTERN CANADA. BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES FULL CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES THAT AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, 925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES LOWER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD START TO GET MORE OF A RETURN SURFACE
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN, ALLOWING
FOR REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS LIKELY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. PROB30 GROUP FOR
SHRA ADDED FOR RDG/ABE EARLY THIS EVE WHEN A DISTURBANCE MOVES
THRU.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...PERIODS OF LOW END VFR OR MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
THIS AFTN AS HIPRES MOVES OFFSHORE. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS TO 15 KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A LONG FETCH DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG 831
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 831
SHORT TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 831
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON/DRAG 831
AVIATION...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON 831
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON 831








000
FXUS61 KPHI 201232
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
832 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO THURSDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA
WILL BUILD DOWN ALONG THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN PROBABLY FAVORING MORE SUN. ANOTHER NICE DAY.

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN WPA/WVA ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-
LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHOULD WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS THAT
RESIDES EAST OF THE OH VLY. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO REACH
CENTRAL PA BY MIDDAY AND EASTERN PA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON JUST OF OUR CWA.

NO CHANGE IN AREAL COVERAGE FROM THE 330AM/630AM FCST.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS THE
ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE
APPALACHIAN RIDGE. FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE IN REGARDS TO HOW FAR
EAST SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MENTIONED AS MODELS GENERALLY SHOW
CONVECTION DECAYING AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS OVER NJ/DE. CLOUDS COVER, WHICH WILL INCREASES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH, WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING TONIGHT. OFFICIAL MIN TEMP FORECAST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

ON THURSDAY, THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK. HOWEVER, THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL
SWING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS, AND WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO
THE AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH SHEAR OR MUCH OF A WIND FIELD, SO WE
DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES ARE GENERALLY
FORECAST AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS COULD
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED SMALL
HAIL NOT IMPOSSIBLE AS TT NEAR 50 IN AREA OF MAX INSTABILITY
IN NJ (NEAR THE DELAWARE RIVER).

THURSDAY NIGHT, A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY HELP KEEP A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT SAGS TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHEAST, KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM EASTERN CANADA. BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES FULL CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES THAT AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, 925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES LOWER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD START TO GET MORE OF A RETURN SURFACE
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN, ALLOWING
FOR REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT SE TO S WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS LIKELY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. PROB30 GROUP FOR
SHRA ADDED FOR RDG/ABE EARLY THIS EVE WHEN A DISTURBANCE MOVES
THRU.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...PERIODS OF LOW END VFR OR MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE RELATED HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
THIS AFTN AS HIPRES MOVES OFFSHORE. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS TO 15 KT
POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A LONG FETCH DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG 831
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 831
SHORT TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 831
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON/DRAG 831
AVIATION...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON 831
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON 831







000
FXUS61 KPHI 200806
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
406 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO
UPSTATE NEW YORK THURSDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, WHICH WAS LOCATED ABOUT 250 MI OFF THE
SOUTHEAST VA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING, WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. BOTH OF THESE LOWS DEVELOPED ALONG A STALLED
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WILL KEEP THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO START THE DAY WITH THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD. WINDS THEN VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
AND SOUTH FARTHER INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. MID CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A
MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY FOR NJ/PA. THERE WILL BE OPPORTUNITY
FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT A BIT LATER THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF I-95. THE WARMEST TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE THUS FORECAST
FOR THE URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN MD (HIGHS IN THE MID 80S).
DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE FARTHER EAST, SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHOULD WEAKEN THIS MORNING
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS THAT
RESIDES EAST OF THE OH VLY. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO REACH
CENTRAL PA BY MIDDAY AND EASTERN PA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW STRONGER STATIC STABILITY FARTHER EAST
ACROSS THE CWA, CONFINED PRECIP TO WEST OF I-95 FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS THE
ABOVEMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE IN REGARDS TO HOW FAR EAST SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE MENTIONED AS MODELS GENERALLY SHOW CONVECTION DECAYING
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER NJ/DE. CLOUDS
COVER, WHICH WILL INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE TROUGH, WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. OFFICIAL MIN
TEMP FORECAST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

ON THURSDAY, THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK. HOWEVER, THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS, AND WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH SHEAR OR MUCH OF A WIND FIELD, SO
WE DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES ARE
GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

THURSDAY NIGHT, A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY HELP KEEP A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT SAGS TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHEAST, KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM EASTERN CANADA. BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES FULL CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES THAT AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, 925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES LOWER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD START TO GET MORE OF A RETURN SURFACE
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN, ALLOWING
FOR REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. BKN MID-LVL CIGS
IMPACTING MOST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS TO SCT OUT TOWARD MIDDAY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN TERMINALS THIS AFTN AND THE REST OF THE AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT. PROB30 GROUP FOR SHRA ADDED FOR RDG/ABE LATE THIS AFTN AND
EARLY THIS EVE WHEN A DISTURBANCE MOVES THRU. WHILE TSRA CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. SAME
GOES FOR SHRA CHANCES FARTHER DOWNSTREAM INTO PHL AND TO THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...PERIODS OF LOW END VFR OR MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTN AS HIPRES MOVES OFFSHORE. LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A LONG FETCH DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 200806
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
406 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO
UPSTATE NEW YORK THURSDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN ALONG THE EAST
COAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, WHICH WAS LOCATED ABOUT 250 MI OFF THE
SOUTHEAST VA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING, WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION TODAY. BOTH OF THESE LOWS DEVELOPED ALONG A STALLED
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID-ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WILL KEEP THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE TO START THE DAY WITH THE SFC RIDGE
AXIS OVERHEAD. WINDS THEN VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE COAST
AND SOUTH FARTHER INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. MID CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A
MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY FOR NJ/PA. THERE WILL BE OPPORTUNITY
FOR CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT A BIT LATER THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF I-95. THE WARMEST TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ARE THUS FORECAST
FOR THE URBAN I-95 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN MD (HIGHS IN THE MID 80S).
DESPITE MORE SUNSHINE FARTHER EAST, SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW.

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW SHOULD WEAKEN THIS MORNING
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS THAT
RESIDES EAST OF THE OH VLY. THIS IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO REACH
CENTRAL PA BY MIDDAY AND EASTERN PA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW STRONGER STATIC STABILITY FARTHER EAST
ACROSS THE CWA, CONFINED PRECIP TO WEST OF I-95 FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AS THE
ABOVEMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE IN REGARDS TO HOW FAR EAST SHOWERS AND
STORMS WERE MENTIONED AS MODELS GENERALLY SHOW CONVECTION DECAYING
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER NJ/DE. CLOUDS
COVER, WHICH WILL INCREASES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE TROUGH, WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. OFFICIAL MIN
TEMP FORECAST SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STARTS OFF WITH RAIN CHANCES, BEFORE A DRYING
OUT PERIOD SETS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

ON THURSDAY, THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK. HOWEVER, THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS, AND WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
INTO THE AREA. THERE IS NOT MUCH SHEAR OR MUCH OF A WIND FIELD, SO
WE DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. PW VALUES ARE
GENERALLY FORECAST AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES, SO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

THURSDAY NIGHT, A SECOND AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY HELP KEEP A FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE IT SAGS TO OUR SOUTH.

FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHEAST, KEEPING A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE EAST
COAST FROM EASTERN CANADA. BEFORE THE HIGH TAKES FULL CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORT MAXES THAT AFFECT THE
AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FURTHER INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT AS THE HIGH BUILDS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND, 925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES LOWER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. AS WE MOVE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD START TO GET MORE OF A RETURN SURFACE
FLOW AND RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE ONCE AGAIN, ALLOWING
FOR REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. BKN MID-LVL CIGS
IMPACTING MOST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE
CLOUDS TO SCT OUT TOWARD MIDDAY BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN TERMINALS THIS AFTN AND THE REST OF THE AREA TERMINALS
TONIGHT. PROB30 GROUP FOR SHRA ADDED FOR RDG/ABE LATE THIS AFTN AND
EARLY THIS EVE WHEN A DISTURBANCE MOVES THRU. WHILE TSRA CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. SAME
GOES FOR SHRA CHANCES FARTHER DOWNSTREAM INTO PHL AND TO THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...PERIODS OF LOW END VFR OR MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTN AS HIPRES MOVES OFFSHORE. LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS A LONG FETCH DEVELOPS AROUND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 200138
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW
ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION AND BRING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS
EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE, A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT,
ALONG WITH A LIGHT WIND. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL FAVOR EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EDGE
FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING SITUATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. THE NEXT
FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING
EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF WITH REGARDS
TO THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINING OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAYTIME
AND THUS HOLDING MOST PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, AND WE HAVE ONLY SOME LOW POPS FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY, WE MAINLY TOOK A MET/MAV BLEND,
BUT THEN EDGED MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE
COAST WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN OVERALL RATHER BENIGN AUGUST WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW
NOW OVER THE WESTERN GRTLKS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GRTLKS AND NY STATE DURING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN REDEVELOPING SOMEWHAT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE MS VALLEY...RESULTING IN CONFLUENT/SUBSIDENT FLOW OVER THE
REGION FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW/TROF MOVE BY ON THU/FRI...THERE IS SOME FORCING
FOR UVV ALONG WITH INCREASING PW AND MODEST INSTBY. THUS A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. THE CHC POPS CONTINUE INTO FRI ALTHOUGH INSTBY SEEMS
MARGINAL AT THAT TIME. FOR THE WEEKEND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN A
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER FLOW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONE
EXCEPTION. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY IMPACT KRDG AND KMIV AROUND
DAYBREAK. THE CLOUD COVER WILL VARY FROM BROKEN TO SCATTERED WITH
ANY CEILINGS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE DIRECTION
SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THEN IT IS EXPECTED
TO VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN OVERALL EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE FOR OUR WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, STRONGEST FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT
RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH 1 TO
3 FOOT SEAS FOR DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO SCA FLAGS EXPECTED WITH WINDS/SEAS
BELOW THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER... LOCALLY ROUGH CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS. MARGINAL SCA CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/KLINE








000
FXUS61 KPHI 200138
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW
ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
REGION AND BRING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED WELL OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST THIS
EVENING. IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE, A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT,
ALONG WITH A LIGHT WIND. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL FAVOR EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM
FALLING BELOW THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY EDGE
FARTHER EAST AND AWAY FROM THE COAST, WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING SITUATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. THE NEXT
FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PROGRESSING
EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION
ACROSS CENTRAL PA THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS, NAM, AND ECMWF WITH REGARDS
TO THIS SHORTWAVE REMAINING OFF TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAYTIME
AND THUS HOLDING MOST PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL
LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, AND WE HAVE ONLY SOME LOW POPS FOR
ISOLATED ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING.

FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY, WE MAINLY TOOK A MET/MAV BLEND,
BUT THEN EDGED MAX TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ALONG THE
COAST WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS TO THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN OVERALL RATHER BENIGN AUGUST WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LOW
NOW OVER THE WESTERN GRTLKS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GRTLKS AND NY STATE DURING THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THEN REDEVELOPING SOMEWHAT EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE MS VALLEY...RESULTING IN CONFLUENT/SUBSIDENT FLOW OVER THE
REGION FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS THE UPPER LOW/TROF MOVE BY ON THU/FRI...THERE IS SOME FORCING
FOR UVV ALONG WITH INCREASING PW AND MODEST INSTBY. THUS A PERIOD
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST POPS LATE THU AND THU
NIGHT. THE CHC POPS CONTINUE INTO FRI ALTHOUGH INSTBY SEEMS
MARGINAL AT THAT TIME. FOR THE WEEKEND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN A
SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER FLOW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONE
EXCEPTION. SOME LIGHT FOG MAY IMPACT KRDG AND KMIV AROUND
DAYBREAK. THE CLOUD COVER WILL VARY FROM BROKEN TO SCATTERED WITH
ANY CEILINGS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE DIRECTION
SHOULD FAVOR THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST OVERNIGHT THEN IT IS EXPECTED
TO VEER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THRU THE REGION. LOCAL/TEMPORARY FLIGHT MVFR
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WINDS MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN OVERALL EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 5 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE FOR OUR WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, STRONGEST FOR OUR
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT
RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH 1 TO
3 FOOT SEAS FOR DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO SCA FLAGS EXPECTED WITH WINDS/SEAS
BELOW THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER... LOCALLY ROUGH CONDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN BUILDING SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS. MARGINAL SCA CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/KLINE







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