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000
FXUS61 KPHI 230747
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY WIND
OVER THE REGION.  THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 30 MPH AND HIGHER.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES.  TODAY SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE,
BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE NWLY FLOW

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY.  THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE
WHOLE NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.  CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL
FROST HEADLINES.  ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE WIND COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT.  STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN AND SCA ON THE
BAY.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE LWR BAY FOR AN UPGRADE TO
GLW IF NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE
  AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE CHANGED AS FOLLOWS....THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND
ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY.

RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE.  ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD
QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF








000
FXUS61 KPHI 230747
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA THIS
MORNING WILL BUILD SOUTH AND EAST THEN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY AND THEN WEAKEN FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
SET UP FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST TODAY AS
LOW PRESSURE OFF OF NEW ENG AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT SLOWLY MOVE EWD.
THE GRAD BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP A TIGHT NWLY WIND
OVER THE REGION.  THE WIND COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 30 MPH AND HIGHER.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO HIT 60 DEGREES.  TODAY SHOULD BE GENLY PRECIP FREE,
BUT A SHWR COULD NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE NWLY FLOW

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY TWD THE REGION TONIGHT.
EXPECT A GENLY CLEAR SKY.  THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE A BIT BUT REMAIN
GUSTY AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THRU THE
WHOLE NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 30S.  CONDS WILL HAVE TO BE EXAMINED FOR PSBL
FROST HEADLINES.  ONE NEGATING FACTOR IS THE WIND, BUT REGARDLESS IT
WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER (ESPECIALLY FOR LATE APRIL) WITH THE GUST NW
WIND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. IT
WILL MOVE EAST AND CREST ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC THU NIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING. IT WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE LATER FRI. THU THRU
EARLY FRI WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS THU WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE RATHER LOW THU AND WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
EARLY...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ADDED FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS NEW
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND FRI AND FRI NIGHT. AN ATTACHED FRONT WILL CROSS
OUR REGION FRI NIGHT. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SMALL CHANGES TO THE ALREADY
CHC POP FCST FOR THESE PERIODS. INSTABILITY FOR FRI/FRI NIGHT LOOKS
LOW...SO NO THUNDER WILL BE MENTIONED ATTM. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRI
AND SAT WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S OVER
MOST AREAS...COOLER OVER THE SRN POCONOS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE NRN AREAS SAT...BUT OVERALL A FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED.

FAIR WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA AND SETTLES OVER THE AREA. IT
WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY AS WELL. HIGHS SUN WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SAT WITH READINGS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY AND THIS WILL BE THE
START OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR MUCH OF EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE
CARRIED SLGT CHC FOR SHOWERS MON AND THEN MOSTLY CHC POPS FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST. WPC OFFERED SOME HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS FOR LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT THESE WERE TRIMMED TO BETTER ALIGN
WITH OTHER OFFICES. TEMPS MON-WED WILL BE JUST A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S CFP.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OFF OF NEW ENG WILL KEEP A
STRONG AND GUSTY NW WIND OVER THE AREA TODAY.  THE WIND COULD GUST
UPWARDS OF 30 KTS DURG THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT IN THE EVENING
AND PSBLY SOME MORE OVERNIGHT.  STILL THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE THE WHOLE TIME...AT LEAST.

OUTLOOK...
THU THRU FRI MORNING...VFR EXPECTED.
FRI AFTERNOON THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR WITH SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SAT NGT THRU SUN...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN AND SCA ON THE
BAY.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY THE LWR BAY FOR AN UPGRADE TO
GLW IF NEEDED.

OUTLOOK...
THU...GALES ON THE OCEAN WILL DIMINISH AND SCA FLAGS WILL BE
  AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY...ON DEL BAY ALSO.
THU NIGHT THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. NEAR SCA GUSTS FRI
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE CHANGED AS FOLLOWS....THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING AND
ANOTHER FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THURSDAY.

RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON TODAY, AT LEAST IN SOME
AREAS, BUT FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL WAS LIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE WIND WHICH WILL GUST IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE.  ANY FIRE THAT GETS STARTED WILL SPREAD
QUICKLY UNDER THESE CONDITIONS.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WIND
GUSTS SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH WARMER TEMPS...RH
VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20 PCT IN MANY LOCATIONS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER
LOW... SO INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FIRE
WEATHER FORECASTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...STAFF







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230419
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1219 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT IS THRU THE REGION AND PRECIP HAS ALL BUT ENDED. WIND
HAS BECOME W TO NW OVER THE AREA AND WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME
POCKETS OF CLOUDS, THE SKY HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH TO
PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED INSTABILITY
THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST CAPES
OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS
AND EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EVENING UPDATE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS GENERALLY OVER FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SHORTLY, BUT IT IS TOO SMALL OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
NOW.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING; ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 230419
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1219 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FRONT IS THRU THE REGION AND PRECIP HAS ALL BUT ENDED. WIND
HAS BECOME W TO NW OVER THE AREA AND WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME
POCKETS OF CLOUDS, THE SKY HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH TO
PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED INSTABILITY
THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST CAPES
OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS
AND EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EVENING UPDATE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS GENERALLY OVER FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SHORTLY, BUT IT IS TOO SMALL OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
NOW.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING; ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230123
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
923 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
930PM UPDATE...INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS MOSTLY
FALLEN APART. THERE ARE STILL TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS, ONE ALONG THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND ANOTHER NORTH OF THE POCONOS THAT MAY HAVE A
CHANCE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION A BIT LATER AS THE MAIN FRONT
ARRIVES. BASED ON OBS, IT LOOKS LIKE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OUT
RAN THE COLD FRONT, SO THE MAIN COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST OUTSIDE OF
OUR CWA AT THIS TIME. ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS, BUT OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR
FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL
OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A TENTH TO
PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED INSTABILITY
THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST CAPES
OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS
AND EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EVENING UPDATE...THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS GENERALLY OVER FOR
MOST TERMINALS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SHORTLY, BUT IT IS TOO SMALL OF A THREAT TO MENTION IN THE TAFS
NOW.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING; ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS
POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT
RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 221941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY
SEE A TENTH TO PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST
CAPES OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND
EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING;
ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS,
MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE








000
FXUS61 KPHI 221941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR SUNDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT OUR
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH LATE-DAY, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA BY LATE EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE AND ACTUAL OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST CONTINUE TO SHOW
LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND MOST AREAS WILL ONLY
SEE A TENTH TO PERHAPS TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM SHOWERS AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS ALSO LIMITED
INSTABILITY THROUGH LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT WE DID KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST BASED ON FORECAST
CAPES OFF THE GFS/NAM AND ECMWF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY, THEN BECOMING MORE WESTERLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE QUICKLY DECREASE POPS AFTER ABOUT 01Z FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEN, COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. IN FACT, THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED. FOR TEMPERATURES, WE
MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLEND WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND
EXPECT LOWS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A WINDY AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST GRADUALLY BUILDS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS, GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FELT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30
TO 35 MPH RANGE. WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD, A
COUPLE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR FAR
NORTHWEST ZONES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TUESDAY, WITH 850/925MB
TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS REACHING MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TOWARD OUR AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS TIME PERIOD WHILE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR MAINE MOVES SLOWLY AWAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WINDS OVER AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
COMBINED AFFECT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT FOR THE AREA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...USED A MET/MAV BLEND FOR
TEMPERATURES.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BRINGS ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. USED WPC SURFACE
FRONT FORECAST FOR PRECIPITATION/WIND TIMING. END RESULT WAS VERY
LITTLE CHANGE FROM WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN THE GRIDS.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...USED WPC EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE
AS FIRST GUESS FOR GRIDS. ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THAT
DATA SET.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION WILL BE LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PER WPC MAPS AND DISCUSSION.
TRIMMED BACK PRECIPITATION START TIME IN PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
LATER ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD
AS SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS TEND TO BE EVER SLOWER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.

REVIEWING THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...
OVERALL VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE-DAY AND THIS EVENING;
ALTHOUGH, A BRIEF REDUCTION TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS,
MAINLY DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WHILE ISOLATED TSTMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO
THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
GUSTY AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS TO
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 KNOT RANGE DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME
WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS.  MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE, WE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE GALE WATCH TO
A GALE WARNING FOR OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BEGINNING AT 12Z
WEDNESDAY AND LASTING INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO SCA TERRITORY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS PLUS ARE
EXPECTED. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND
EXTENDED IT INTO THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS FOR THE BAY SHOULD
PRIMARILY TOP OUT AROUND 30 KNOTS DURING WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY ON THE OCEAN WITH
GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND POSSIBLY HIGHER. A GALE WARNING HAS NOW BEEN
ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME, THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL BE WELL OVER FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA.
RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY BUT FUEL MOISTURE
VALUES WILL ALSO BE A PROBLEM AS RAINFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHT. BOTTOM-LINE IS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH OF A RISK BASED ON
THE WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. THOUGH WINDS GUSTS MAY
BE A LITTLE LOWER, RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 20% IN MANY LOCATIONS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...SZATKOWSKI/KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221430
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1030 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED
WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR GUIDANCE, WE TRIMMED BACK POPS AND
ONSET OF PRECIP FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN. WE
ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS THROUGH THE AFTN TO EVENING
HOURS TO REFLECT THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA.
OTHERWISE, PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK FOR LATER TODAY AS
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE ALSO KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE
AFTN/EVE AS GFS/NAM AND EURO GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY.
IN ADDITION, HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO
REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS, BUT AFTN MAXIMUM TEMPS
LOOK ON TRACK.

OTHERWISE, DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TODAY AND AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE WRN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL, MAINLY HIGH CHC/LIKELY POPS ARE IN PLACE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND SMALLER CHCS FOR THUNDER. SPC HAS ONLY A GENERAL
THUNDER OUTLOOKED FOR OUR REGION...WITH LIMITED CAPE AND MODEST
WIND FIELDS EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE DEL VALLEY AROUND
23Z OR 00Z. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY S/SW TODAY THEN SHIFT WRLY AFTER
FROPA. OVERALL QPF TODAY AND THIS EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY .10 TO
.25 INCHES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOW/MID 70S IN MANY AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER ALONG THE
SHORE AREAS WITH READINGS THERE STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NJ/DE THEN OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING. A COLDER GUSTY NW WIND WILL COMMENCE BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 50S REACHING THE MID/UPPER 40S BY
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDD PD AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER NEW ENG AND PULLS AWAY.
THE PGRAD BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THE BUILDING HIGH WILL
KEEP GUSTY N TO NW WIND OVER THE REGION BOTH DAYS. 30 TO 35 MPH
GUSTS ARE PSBL, BEFORE THE WIND SETTLES DOWN ON THU.

BY THU NIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS THE GRTLKS AND
ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRI AND CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC
OF SHWRS. THERE IS VERY GOOD MDL AGREEMENT ON THIS PART OF THE
FCST. HOWEVER, THERE IS MUCH LESS MDL AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS
THE REST OF SAT. THE GFS SWEEPS THE FRONT THRU AND KEEPS MOST OF
THE REST OF SAT DRY, SAVE FOR A FEW SCT SHWRS. THE ECMWF, ON THE
OTHER HAND BRINGS A SECOND FRONT BY DURG SAT AND WOULD KEEP THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ALL DAY AND MUCH HIGHER POPS. THE CMC SUPPORTS
THE DRIER GFS SOLN, SO FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH LOW CHC POPS, BUT SAT
COULD END UP WETTER THAN CURRENTLY FCST AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THEN HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN FROM CAN FOR SUN MAKING FOR
ANOTHER DRY DAY ACRS THE AREA.

BY MON, THERE IS YET EVEN MORE MDL DISAGREEMENT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRES TAKES SHAPE ACRS THE PLAINS. IT`S WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD AND
PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALG AND N OF THAT BOUNDARY ON MON. HOWEVER, THE
GUID DIFFERS AS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE AND, THEREFORE, WHERE
THE PRECIP WILL BE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER S WITH THE FRONT AND THE
PRECIP THAN THE GFS AND KEEPS VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR AREA DRY ON
MON, WITH THE PSBL EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SRN DELMARVA. THE GFS
IS MUCH FURTHER N AND KEEPS THE AREA WET.

THE ULTIMATE POSN OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL BE GOVERNED BY THE
STRENGTH AND POSN OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER CANADA. IF ITS
STRONGER OR FURTHER S, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER S. IF ITS
WEAKER OR FURTHER N, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER N. GIVEN THE
NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME SCALE AND THE DIAMETRIC OPPOSITE
GUIDANCE, WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ATTM.

AFTER WED, BEHIND THE CFP....TEMPS LOOK TO BE AOA NRML THRU THE
PD. SAT`S TEMP ULTIMATELY DEPENDENT ON SUNSHINE AND WHICH MDL SOLN
IS CORRECT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A MOSTLY VFR DAY IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING CLOUDS TO INCREASE
AND CIGS TO LOWER. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING
THE SHOWERY PERIOD LATER TODAY...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. LOW
CONFID IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO THEY WERE NOT MENTIONED
IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY S/SW TODAY THEN SWITCH
WRLY THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS
THROUGH TODAY BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT. LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 44009
SHOW SEAS BETWEEN 4 TO 5 FEET, AND THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD FOR THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
SEAS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A SCA
FLAG WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AFTER 00Z AND CARRY INTO WED
MORNING. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...SCA LIKELY AND GALE FORCE GSTS PSBL ON THE OCEAN
FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND PSBLY HIGHER. A GALE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI AND SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS COULD REACH OVER 30 MPH. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING
AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLINE/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220754
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED
WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND
AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WRN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE MOSTLY CONTINUED
THE FCST AS FROM BEFORE WITH HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS AND SMALLER
CHCS FOR THUNDER. SPC HAS ONLY A GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOKED FOR OUR
REGION...WITH LIMITED CAPE AND MODEST WIND FIELDS EXPECTED. THE
FRONT WILL REACH THE DEL VALLEY AROUND 23Z OR 00Z. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY S/SW TODAY THEN SHIFT WRLY AFTER FROPA. OVERALL QPF TODAY AND
THIS EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY .10 TO .25 INCHES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOW/MID 70S IN MANY AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER ALONG THE
SHORE AREAS WITH READINGS THERE STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NJ/DE THEN OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING. A COLDER GUSTY NW WIND WILL COMMENCE BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 50S REACHING THE MID/UPPER 40S BY
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDD PD AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER NEW ENG AND PULLS AWAY.
THE PGRAD BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THE BUILDING HIGH WILL
KEEP GUSTY N TO NW WIND OVER THE REGION BOTH DAYS. 30 TO 35 MPH
GUSTS ARE PSBL, BEFORE THE WIND SETTLES DOWN ON THU.

BY THU NIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS THE GRTLKS AND
ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRI AND CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC
OF SHWRS. THERE IS VERY GOOD MDL AGREEMENT ON THIS PART OF THE
FCST. HOWEVER, THERE IS MUCH LESS MDL AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS
THE REST OF SAT. THE GFS SWEEPS THE FRONT THRU AND KEEPS MOST OF
THE REST OF SAT DRY, SAVE FOR A FEW SCT SHWRS. THE ECMWF, ON THE
OTHER HAND BRINGS A SECOND FRONT BY DURG SAT AND WOULD KEEP THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ALL DAY AND MUCH HIGHER POPS. THE CMC SUPPORTS
THE DRIER GFS SOLN, SO FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH LOW CHC POPS, BUT SAT
COULD END UP WETTER THAN CURRENTLY FCST AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THEN HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN FROM CAN FOR SUN MAKING FOR
ANOTHER DRY DAY ACRS THE AREA.

BY MON, THERE IS YET EVEN MORE MDL DISAGREEMENT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRES TAKES SHAPE ACRS THE PLAINS. IT`S WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD AND
PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALG AND N OF THAT BOUNDARY ON MON. HOWEVER, THE
GUID DIFFERS AS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE AND, THEREFORE, WHERE
THE PRECIP WILL BE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER S WITH THE FRONT AND THE
PRECIP THAN THE GFS AND KEEPS VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR AREA DRY ON
MON, WITH THE PSBL EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SRN DELMARVA. THE GFS
IS MUCH FURTHER N AND KEEPS THE AREA WET.

THE ULTIMATE POSN OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL BE GOVERNED BY THE
STRENGTH AND POSN OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER CANADA. IF ITS
STRONGER OR FURTHER S, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER S. IF ITS
WEAKER OR FURTHER N, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER N. GIVEN THE
NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME SCALE AND THE DIAMETRIC OPPOSITE
GUIDANCE, WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ATTM.

AFTER WED, BEHIND THE CFP....TEMPS LOOK TO BE AOA NRML THRU THE
PD. SAT`S TEMP ULTIMATELY DEPENDENT ON SUNSHINE AND WHICH MDL SOLN
IS CORRECT.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A MOSTLY VFR DAY IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT FOG ACROSS KMIV BEFORE DAWN..SO WE HAVE LEFT THE TEMP GROUP IN
FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
CAUSING CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND CIGS TO LOWER. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE SHOWERY PERIOD LATER TODAY...ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. LOW CONFID IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO
THEY WERE NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
S/SW TODAY THEN SWITCH WRLY THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY NW
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT BUOY 44009 ARE STILL RUNNING AROUND 5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A 10 SEC PERIOD. THESE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH
SHORTLY AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE WATERS
EARLY TONIGHT. A SCA FLAG WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AFTER 00Z
AND CARRY INTO WED MORNING. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...SCA LIKELY AND GALE FORCE GSTS PSBL ON THE OCEAN
FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND PSBLY HIGHER. A GALE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI AND SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS COULD REACH OVER 30 MPH. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING
AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220754
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED
WITH LOW PRESSURE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTH AND BRING A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER
FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND
AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WRN AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WE HAVE MOSTLY CONTINUED
THE FCST AS FROM BEFORE WITH HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS AND SMALLER
CHCS FOR THUNDER. SPC HAS ONLY A GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOKED FOR OUR
REGION...WITH LIMITED CAPE AND MODEST WIND FIELDS EXPECTED. THE
FRONT WILL REACH THE DEL VALLEY AROUND 23Z OR 00Z. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY S/SW TODAY THEN SHIFT WRLY AFTER FROPA. OVERALL QPF TODAY AND
THIS EVENING WILL BE MOSTLY .10 TO .25 INCHES.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOW/MID 70S IN MANY AREAS. IT WILL REMAIN COOLER ALONG THE
SHORE AREAS WITH READINGS THERE STAYING MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NJ/DE THEN OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING. A COLDER GUSTY NW WIND WILL COMMENCE BEHIND THE FRONT.
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE 50S REACHING THE MID/UPPER 40S BY
MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST AT THE START OF
THE EXTENDD PD AS LOW PRES DEEPENS OVER NEW ENG AND PULLS AWAY.
THE PGRAD BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THE BUILDING HIGH WILL
KEEP GUSTY N TO NW WIND OVER THE REGION BOTH DAYS. 30 TO 35 MPH
GUSTS ARE PSBL, BEFORE THE WIND SETTLES DOWN ON THU.

BY THU NIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS THE GRTLKS AND
ITS ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON FRI AND CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHC
OF SHWRS. THERE IS VERY GOOD MDL AGREEMENT ON THIS PART OF THE
FCST. HOWEVER, THERE IS MUCH LESS MDL AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS
THE REST OF SAT. THE GFS SWEEPS THE FRONT THRU AND KEEPS MOST OF
THE REST OF SAT DRY, SAVE FOR A FEW SCT SHWRS. THE ECMWF, ON THE
OTHER HAND BRINGS A SECOND FRONT BY DURG SAT AND WOULD KEEP THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS ALL DAY AND MUCH HIGHER POPS. THE CMC SUPPORTS
THE DRIER GFS SOLN, SO FOR NOW, WILL GO WITH LOW CHC POPS, BUT SAT
COULD END UP WETTER THAN CURRENTLY FCST AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

THEN HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD DOWN FROM CAN FOR SUN MAKING FOR
ANOTHER DRY DAY ACRS THE AREA.

BY MON, THERE IS YET EVEN MORE MDL DISAGREEMENT. AN AREA OF LOW
PRES TAKES SHAPE ACRS THE PLAINS. IT`S WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD AND
PRECIP IS EXPECTED ALG AND N OF THAT BOUNDARY ON MON. HOWEVER, THE
GUID DIFFERS AS TO WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE AND, THEREFORE, WHERE
THE PRECIP WILL BE. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER S WITH THE FRONT AND THE
PRECIP THAN THE GFS AND KEEPS VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR AREA DRY ON
MON, WITH THE PSBL EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SRN DELMARVA. THE GFS
IS MUCH FURTHER N AND KEEPS THE AREA WET.

THE ULTIMATE POSN OF THE FRONT AND PRECIP WILL BE GOVERNED BY THE
STRENGTH AND POSN OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER CANADA. IF ITS
STRONGER OR FURTHER S, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER S. IF ITS
WEAKER OR FURTHER N, THEN THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER N. GIVEN THE
NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME SCALE AND THE DIAMETRIC OPPOSITE
GUIDANCE, WILL JUST CARRY SOME LOW POPS ATTM.

AFTER WED, BEHIND THE CFP....TEMPS LOOK TO BE AOA NRML THRU THE
PD. SAT`S TEMP ULTIMATELY DEPENDENT ON SUNSHINE AND WHICH MDL SOLN
IS CORRECT.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A MOSTLY VFR DAY IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT FOG ACROSS KMIV BEFORE DAWN..SO WE HAVE LEFT THE TEMP GROUP IN
FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
CAUSING CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND CIGS TO LOWER. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH
VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE SHOWERY PERIOD LATER TODAY...ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED. LOW CONFID IN THUNDER FOR THE TAF SITES...SO
THEY WERE NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY
S/SW TODAY THEN SWITCH WRLY THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING GUSTY NW
TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WED THROUGH THU...VFR CONDS WITH NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT BUOY 44009 ARE STILL RUNNING AROUND 5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A 10 SEC PERIOD. THESE MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH
SHORTLY AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE WATERS
EARLY TONIGHT. A SCA FLAG WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS AFTER 00Z
AND CARRY INTO WED MORNING. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

WED THROUGH THU...SCA LIKELY AND GALE FORCE GSTS PSBL ON THE OCEAN
FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KT AND PSBLY HIGHER. A GALE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED. WIND SUBSIDING LATER THU.

FRI AND SAT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME,
THOUGH WE COULD APPROACH SCA WIND BY SAT NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS COULD REACH OVER 30 MPH. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON
WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING
AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 220350
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1150 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...BIGGEST CHANGE WAS FOR THE POCONOS AND
SOUTHEASTERN PA. NEARLY ALL OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
WELL OVER FORECAST DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE I95
CORRIDOR. WHILE WE SHOULD HAVE INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT, DO NOT SEE MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION, ASIDE FROM THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL
INCREASE DUE TO DECOUPLING. THUS, IN ADDITION TO LOWERING DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA, HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY DECREASED LOWS
GIVEN THE DRIER THAN EXPECTED AIR. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...CONTINUED FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR REGION GOING INTO TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, ONLY NEARING THE
APPALACHIANS AND FAR WESTERN PA BY AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND ANTICIPATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
BY EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THIS TIME-FRAME, WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. THE GFS,
NAM, AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS QPF. IF ANY T-STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FORECAST 925/850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM...00Z WED...A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
EXTEND N TO S ACROSS NJ AND DELMARVA. ASSOCD SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING CAPE IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
00Z. PROB OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STRONG
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WED...THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DEEPEN
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY. THE STG
PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEG F COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD PBL
MIXING AND 850 HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WINDY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THO WITH THE
USUAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTN
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN SPITE
OF THE WIND.

THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYS
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS RANGE THE TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS ON SAT OVER NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FAIR SKIES LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A RISK OF BR DEVELOPING AT
KMIV...AND POSSIBLY KACY WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
BEFORE THEY TURN TO A MORE SW DIRECTION NEAR SUNRISE. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS, AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION AFTER 15Z, SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA.  WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDS IN
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BUT VERY
GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL DISCONTINUE THE SCA FLAG AS OF MIDNIGHT. SEAS AT 44009
CONTINUE AROUND 5 FT AS OF 11 PM...BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW THAT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE WILL DROP THE SCA FLAG AND CONCENTRATE ON
THE TIMING FOR THE NEXT SCA FLAG LATER TODAY INTO TUE NIGHT.

ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE AT SUB-SCA LEVELS FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KT. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH
VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL
GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE/PO
FIRE WEATHER...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220350
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1150 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...BIGGEST CHANGE WAS FOR THE POCONOS AND
SOUTHEASTERN PA. NEARLY ALL OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
WELL OVER FORECAST DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE I95
CORRIDOR. WHILE WE SHOULD HAVE INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT, DO NOT SEE MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION, ASIDE FROM THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL
INCREASE DUE TO DECOUPLING. THUS, IN ADDITION TO LOWERING DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA, HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY DECREASED LOWS
GIVEN THE DRIER THAN EXPECTED AIR. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...CONTINUED FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR REGION GOING INTO TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, ONLY NEARING THE
APPALACHIANS AND FAR WESTERN PA BY AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND ANTICIPATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
BY EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THIS TIME-FRAME, WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. THE GFS,
NAM, AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS QPF. IF ANY T-STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FORECAST 925/850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM...00Z WED...A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
EXTEND N TO S ACROSS NJ AND DELMARVA. ASSOCD SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING CAPE IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
00Z. PROB OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STRONG
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WED...THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DEEPEN
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY. THE STG
PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEG F COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD PBL
MIXING AND 850 HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WINDY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THO WITH THE
USUAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTN
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN SPITE
OF THE WIND.

THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYS
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS RANGE THE TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS ON SAT OVER NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FAIR SKIES LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A RISK OF BR DEVELOPING AT
KMIV...AND POSSIBLY KACY WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
BEFORE THEY TURN TO A MORE SW DIRECTION NEAR SUNRISE. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS, AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION AFTER 15Z, SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA.  WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDS IN
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BUT VERY
GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL DISCONTINUE THE SCA FLAG AS OF MIDNIGHT. SEAS AT 44009
CONTINUE AROUND 5 FT AS OF 11 PM...BUT SHOULD DROP BELOW THAT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE WILL DROP THE SCA FLAG AND CONCENTRATE ON
THE TIMING FOR THE NEXT SCA FLAG LATER TODAY INTO TUE NIGHT.

ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE AT SUB-SCA LEVELS FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KT. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH
VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL
GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE/PO
FIRE WEATHER...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 220139
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...BIGGEST CHANGE WAS FOR THE POCONOS AND
SOUTHEASTERN PA. NEARLY ALL OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
WELL OVER FORECAST DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE I95
CORRIDOR. WHILE WE SHOULD HAVE INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT, DO NOT SEE MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION, ASIDE FROM THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL
INCREASE DUE TO DECOUPLING. THUS, IN ADDITION TO LOWERING DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA, HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY DECREASED LOWS
GIVEN THE DRIER THAN EXPECTED AIR. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...CONTINUED FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR REGION GOING INTO TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, ONLY NEARING THE
APPALACHIANS AND FAR WESTERN PA BY AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND ANTICIPATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
BY EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. THE GFS,
NAM, AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS QPF. IF ANY T-STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FORECAST 925/850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM...00Z WED...A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
EXTEND N TO S ACROSS NJ AND DELMARVA. ASSOCD SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING CAPE IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
00Z. PROB OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STRONG
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WED...THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DEEPEN
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY. THE STG
PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEG F COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD PBL
MIXING AND 850 HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WINDY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THO WITH THE
USUAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTN
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN SPITE
OF THE WIND.

THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYS
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS RANGE THE TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS ON SAT OVER NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FAIR SKIES LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A RISK OF BR DEVELOPING AT
KMIV...AND POSSIBLY KACY WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
BEFORE THEY TURN TO A MORE SW DIRECTION NEAR SUNRISE. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS, AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION AFTER 15Z, SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA.  WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDS IN
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BUT VERY
GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
930 PM UPDATE...WAVE HEIGHTS AT BUOY 44009 REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE 5 FT, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, AND SHOULD BE BELOW 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION...AT LATE-DAY, SOME ENHANCED SEAS
STILL EXIST ON OUR COASTAL WATERS, WITH MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS
STILL REACHING IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE, INCLUDING BUOY 44009. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS, WHICH EXCLUDES OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONE FROM
MANASQUAN INLET NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK. WHILE THE SEAS ARE
DIMINISHING, GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS
EVENING OF ELEVATED SEAS. MEANWHILE, WINDS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS, AND THEY WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE AT SUB-SCA LEVELS FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KT. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH
VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL
GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...AMC







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220139
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...BIGGEST CHANGE WAS FOR THE POCONOS AND
SOUTHEASTERN PA. NEARLY ALL OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
WELL OVER FORECAST DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE I95
CORRIDOR. WHILE WE SHOULD HAVE INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT, DO NOT SEE MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION, ASIDE FROM THE TYPICAL NOCTURNAL
INCREASE DUE TO DECOUPLING. THUS, IN ADDITION TO LOWERING DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA, HAVE ALSO SLIGHTLY DECREASED LOWS
GIVEN THE DRIER THAN EXPECTED AIR. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...CONTINUED FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING OUR REGION GOING INTO TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, ONLY NEARING THE
APPALACHIANS AND FAR WESTERN PA BY AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND ANTICIPATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
BY EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. THE GFS,
NAM, AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS QPF. IF ANY T-STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FORECAST 925/850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM...00Z WED...A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
EXTEND N TO S ACROSS NJ AND DELMARVA. ASSOCD SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING CAPE IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
00Z. PROB OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STRONG
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WED...THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DEEPEN
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY. THE STG
PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEG F COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD PBL
MIXING AND 850 HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WINDY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THO WITH THE
USUAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTN
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN SPITE
OF THE WIND.

THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYS
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS RANGE THE TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS ON SAT OVER NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FAIR SKIES LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A RISK OF BR DEVELOPING AT
KMIV...AND POSSIBLY KACY WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
BEFORE THEY TURN TO A MORE SW DIRECTION NEAR SUNRISE. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS, AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION AFTER 15Z, SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA.  WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDS IN
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BUT VERY
GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
930 PM UPDATE...WAVE HEIGHTS AT BUOY 44009 REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE 5 FT, SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, AND SHOULD BE BELOW 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION...AT LATE-DAY, SOME ENHANCED SEAS
STILL EXIST ON OUR COASTAL WATERS, WITH MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS
STILL REACHING IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE, INCLUDING BUOY 44009. WE
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS, WHICH EXCLUDES OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONE FROM
MANASQUAN INLET NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK. WHILE THE SEAS ARE
DIMINISHING, GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS
EVENING OF ELEVATED SEAS. MEANWHILE, WINDS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA
AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS, AND THEY WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE AT SUB-SCA LEVELS FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KT. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH
VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL
GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...AMC








000
FXUS61 KPHI 212351
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
751 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR REGION GOING INTO
TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, ONLY NEARING THE APPALACHIANS AND FAR WESTERN PA BY
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND ANTICIPATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
BY EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. THE GFS,
NAM, AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS QPF. IF ANY T-STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FORECAST 925/850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM...00Z WED...A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
EXTEND N TO S ACROSS NJ AND DELMARVA. ASSOCD SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING CAPE IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
00Z. PROB OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STRONG
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WED...THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DEEPEN
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY. THE STG
PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEG F COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD PBL
MIXING AND 850 HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WINDY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THO WITH THE
USUAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTN
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN SPITE
OF THE WIND.

THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYS
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS RANGE THE TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS ON SAT OVER NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FAIR SKIES LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A RISK OF BR DEVELOPING AT
KMIV...AND POSSIBLY KACY WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
BEFORE THEY TURN TO A MORE SW DIRECTION NEAR SUNRISE. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS, AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION AFTER 15Z, SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA.  WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDS IN
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BUT VERY
GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AT LATE-DAY, SOME ENHANCED SEAS STILL EXIST ON OUR COASTAL
WATERS, WITH MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS STILL REACHING IN THE 5 TO 6
FOOT RANGE, INCLUDING BUOY 44009. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WHICH
EXCLUDES OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONE FROM MANASQUAN INLET NORTHWARD TO
SANDY HOOK. WHILE THE SEAS ARE DIMINISHING, GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A
FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING OF ELEVATED SEAS. MEANWHILE,
WINDS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS, AND THEY WILL
REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE AT SUB-SCA LEVELS FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KT. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH
VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL
GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...AMC








000
FXUS61 KPHI 212351
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
751 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR REGION GOING INTO
TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, ONLY NEARING THE APPALACHIANS AND FAR WESTERN PA BY
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND ANTICIPATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
BY EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. THE GFS,
NAM, AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS QPF. IF ANY T-STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FORECAST 925/850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM...00Z WED...A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
EXTEND N TO S ACROSS NJ AND DELMARVA. ASSOCD SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING CAPE IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
00Z. PROB OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STRONG
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WED...THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DEEPEN
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY. THE STG
PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEG F COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD PBL
MIXING AND 850 HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WINDY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THO WITH THE
USUAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTN
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN SPITE
OF THE WIND.

THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYS
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS RANGE THE TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS ON SAT OVER NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FAIR SKIES LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. FOR TONIGHT, THERE IS A RISK OF BR DEVELOPING AT
KMIV...AND POSSIBLY KACY WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
BEFORE THEY TURN TO A MORE SW DIRECTION NEAR SUNRISE. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS.
SHOWERS, AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION AFTER 15Z, SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH SOME
LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHRA.  WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDS IN
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BUT VERY
GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AT LATE-DAY, SOME ENHANCED SEAS STILL EXIST ON OUR COASTAL
WATERS, WITH MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS STILL REACHING IN THE 5 TO 6
FOOT RANGE, INCLUDING BUOY 44009. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WHICH
EXCLUDES OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONE FROM MANASQUAN INLET NORTHWARD TO
SANDY HOOK. WHILE THE SEAS ARE DIMINISHING, GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A
FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING OF ELEVATED SEAS. MEANWHILE,
WINDS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS, AND THEY WILL
REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE AT SUB-SCA LEVELS FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KT. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH
VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL
GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...AMC







000
FXUS61 KPHI 212025
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
425 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR REGION GOING INTO
TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, ONLY NEARING THE APPALACHIANS AND FAR WESTERN PA BY
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND ANTICIPATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
BY EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. THE GFS,
NAM, AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS QPF. IF ANY T-STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FORECAST 925/850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM...00Z WED...A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
EXTEND N TO S ACROSS NJ AND DELMARVA. ASSOCD SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING CAPE IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
00Z. PROB OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STRONG
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WED...THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DEEPEND
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY. THE STG
PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEG F COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD PBL
MIXING AND 850 HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WINDY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THO WITH THE
USUAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTN
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN SPITE
OF THE WIND.

THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYS
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS RANGE THE TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS ON SAT OVER NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
COLD ADVECTON BEHING THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FAIR SKIES LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THROUGH
LATE-DAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING, ONLY SOME CIRRUS IS EXPECTED
OVERHEAD AT TIMES WITH LIGHT WINDS AT 5 KT OR LESS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OR A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND BECOMING MORE LIGHT SOUTHWEST LATE EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AT THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES, NAMELY KACY AND KMIV,
AND A TEMPO GROUP WAS INCLUDED.

TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT REMAIN
VFR. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE PRIMARILY LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE-DAY FOR KPHL AND
VICINITY, AS WELL AS FOR KMIV/KACY, BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN MORE IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN SITES, KRDG AND KABE. WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDS IN
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BUT VERY
GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AT LATE-DAY, SOME ENHANCED SEAS STILL EXIST ON OUR COASTAL
WATERS, WITH MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS STILL REACHING IN THE 5 TO 6
FOOT RANGE, INCLUDING BUOY 44009. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WHICH
EXCLUDES OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONE FROM MANASQUAN INLET NORTHWARD TO
SANDY HOOK. WHILE THE SEAS ARE DIMINISHING, GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A
FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING OF ELEVATED SEAS. MEANWHILE,
WINDS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS, AND THEY WILL
REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE AT SUB-SCA LEVELS FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KT. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH
VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL
GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...AMC







000
FXUS61 KPHI 212025
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
425 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY ON TUESDAY TO A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AND MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY
EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED
BY MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED FAIR AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EASES FARTHER OFFSHORE AND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING OUR REGION GOING INTO
TUESDAY, BUT THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, ONLY NEARING THE APPALACHIANS AND FAR WESTERN PA BY
AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN, WITH MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SPREADING
INTO OUR AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH THE FRONT STILL WELL OFF TO OUR WEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH THE
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART, WE TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE
WITH SOME LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS AND ANTICIPATE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
BY EVENING, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS ARE CENTERED
AROUND THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH ONLY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WAS
KEPT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA CONTINUES
TO LOOK RATHER PROGRESSIVE WITH FAIRLY LIMITED MOISTURE. THE GFS,
NAM, AND ECMWF ALL GENERALLY HAVE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR
LESS QPF. IF ANY T-STORMS DO DEVELOP, SOMEWHAT HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
OCCUR.

FOR TEMPERATURES, MILD SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FORECAST 925/850MB TEMPS LOOK TO SUPPORT DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER READINGS
THROUGH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AND ALONG THE
COAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM...00Z WED...A COLD FRONT IS FCST TO
EXTEND N TO S ACROSS NJ AND DELMARVA. ASSOCD SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE AREA AND A LITTLE BIT OF LINGERING CAPE IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
LEFT IN THE MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
00Z. PROB OF ANY THUNDER WILL BE RAPIDLY DECREASING AND ALL PRECIP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA FROM W TO E BY MIDNIGHT WITH JUST A
LINGERING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS. STRONG
LOW-LVL COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

ON WED...THE SFC LOW ASSOCD WITH THE COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DEEPEND
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY. THE STG
PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN GUSTY NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WITH
MAX TEMPS 10 TO 15 DEG F COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD PBL
MIXING AND 850 HPA WINDS 40 TO 50 KT...SOME WIND GUSTS IN THE 30
TO 35 KT RANGE SEEM LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS WINDY
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY THO WITH THE
USUAL NOCTURNAL DECREASE AND NOT QUITE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY AFTN
AS THE HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO NORMAL ON THURSDAY IN SPITE
OF THE WIND.

THE HIGH PRES RIDGE IS FCST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD FRONTAL SYS
CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THIS RANGE THE TIMING
IS MORE UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW WE HAVE THE HIGHER CHC POPS ON FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING CHC POPS ON SAT OVER NRN NJ AND
ADJACENT PA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT TOO HIGH AT THE MOMENT.
COLD ADVECTON BEHING THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR
THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FAIR SKIES LATER ON SAT AND INTO SUN.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THROUGH
LATE-DAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING, ONLY SOME CIRRUS IS EXPECTED
OVERHEAD AT TIMES WITH LIGHT WINDS AT 5 KT OR LESS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE EXITING THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OR A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND BECOMING MORE LIGHT SOUTHWEST LATE EVENING AND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MORE HIGH/MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK TUESDAY AT THE SOUTHEAST TAF SITES, NAMELY KACY AND KMIV,
AND A TEMPO GROUP WAS INCLUDED.

TUESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT REMAIN
VFR. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME. RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE PRIMARILY LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE-DAY FOR KPHL AND
VICINITY, AS WELL AS FOR KMIV/KACY, BUT SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN MORE IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN SITES, KRDG AND KABE. WHILE
ISOLATED THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THERE WILL BE SOME
INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
THUNDER IN THE TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY MVFR CONDS IN
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVING TO GENERALLY VFR OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BUT VERY
GUSTY NW WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR BUT LOCALLY MVFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AT LATE-DAY, SOME ENHANCED SEAS STILL EXIST ON OUR COASTAL
WATERS, WITH MAINLY THE OUTER WATERS STILL REACHING IN THE 5 TO 6
FOOT RANGE, INCLUDING BUOY 44009. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WHICH
EXCLUDES OUR NORTHERNMOST ZONE FROM MANASQUAN INLET NORTHWARD TO
SANDY HOOK. WHILE THE SEAS ARE DIMINISHING, GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A
FEW MORE HOURS INTO THIS EVENING OF ELEVATED SEAS. MEANWHILE,
WINDS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS, AND THEY WILL
REMAIN SO THROUGH TONIGHT.

ONCE SEAS SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAYTIME TUESDAY WILL BE AT SUB-SCA LEVELS FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30
KT. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME FIRE WEATHER DANGER MAY BE PRESENT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PRESENT BOTH DAYS BUT SOMEWHAT
STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RH
VALUES MAY STAY ABOVE 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. RH WILL BE LOWER ON
THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL DRYING AFTER TUESDAYS PRECIP...AND STILL
GUSTY NW WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/KLINE
MARINE...AMC/KLINE
FIRE WEATHER...AMC








000
FXUS61 KPHI 211236
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
836 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD IN FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE
HIGH PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE THIS MORNING INCLUDED CANCELLING THE FROST ADVISORY AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE RATHER QUICKLY. WE USED THE LAV/LAMP
GUIDANCE TO TWEAK TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS, BUT OTHERWISE MAX TEMPS LOOK ON TARGET AT THIS TIME.
12Z KIAD REGIONAL SOUNDING SHOWS AMPLE DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS OUT OF REACH. SO, OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS
OVERHEAD AT TIMES, LOTS OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. IT WILL ENSURE A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME CI/CS CLOUDS AT TIMES. A MAV/MET
BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPS TODAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S IN MOST SPOTS. IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALONG THE
SHORE WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
TODAY...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND WINDS WILL TEND TO SWITCH TO
SRLY/SWRLY LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL EXTEND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SKY COVER WILL
BE MOSTLY CLR THIS EVENING AND THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER MON NGT WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 40S IN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SRLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND ITS
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE ON
TUESDAY AND IT WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED. AS A RESULT, RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FRONT, AND SPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE REGION
UNDER A GENERAL THREAT OF TSTMS. THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WERE ADJUSTED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.

A PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA ARE FORECAST TO DROP A BIT
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 60S IN MUCH OF
OUR REGION WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME STRATOCUMULUS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN OUR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES, MAINLY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH A RIDGE
AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. IT SHOULD PULL A WARM
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF SURFACE
TROUGHS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY SOME CI/CS CLOUDS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY FROM
THE E/SE THIS MORNING THEN S/SW THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

SOME GUIDANCE SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINDOW OF POSSIBLE MVFR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY AT THE SOUTHEAST
TAF SITES, NAMELY KACY AND KMIV, AND A TEMPO GROUP WAS INCLUDED
WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS STILL SOME PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE SCA FLAG TODAY FOR SOME LINGERING GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KTS AND ENHANCED 4-6 FT SEAS. THE SCA FLAG WILL PROBABLY BE TAKEN
DOWN LATER TODAY AND A SUB-SCA PERIOD IS EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR OR BELOW 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AT 15 TO 20 MPH MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD AT THAT TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...KLINE/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...KLINE/MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...MIKETTA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO








000
FXUS61 KPHI 211236
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
836 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD IN FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE
HIGH PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE THIS MORNING INCLUDED CANCELLING THE FROST ADVISORY AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE RATHER QUICKLY. WE USED THE LAV/LAMP
GUIDANCE TO TWEAK TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS, BUT OTHERWISE MAX TEMPS LOOK ON TARGET AT THIS TIME.
12Z KIAD REGIONAL SOUNDING SHOWS AMPLE DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS OUT OF REACH. SO, OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS
OVERHEAD AT TIMES, LOTS OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. IT WILL ENSURE A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME CI/CS CLOUDS AT TIMES. A MAV/MET
BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPS TODAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S IN MOST SPOTS. IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALONG THE
SHORE WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER
TODAY...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, AND WINDS WILL TEND TO SWITCH TO
SRLY/SWRLY LATER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL EXTEND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SKY COVER WILL
BE MOSTLY CLR THIS EVENING AND THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER MON NGT WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 40S IN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SRLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND ITS
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE ON
TUESDAY AND IT WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED. AS A RESULT, RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FRONT, AND SPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE REGION
UNDER A GENERAL THREAT OF TSTMS. THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WERE ADJUSTED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.

A PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA ARE FORECAST TO DROP A BIT
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 60S IN MUCH OF
OUR REGION WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME STRATOCUMULUS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN OUR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES, MAINLY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH A RIDGE
AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. IT SHOULD PULL A WARM
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF SURFACE
TROUGHS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY SOME CI/CS CLOUDS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY FROM
THE E/SE THIS MORNING THEN S/SW THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

SOME GUIDANCE SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINDOW OF POSSIBLE MVFR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS LEADING UP TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY AT THE SOUTHEAST
TAF SITES, NAMELY KACY AND KMIV, AND A TEMPO GROUP WAS INCLUDED
WITH THE 12Z TAFS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS STILL SOME PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE SCA FLAG TODAY FOR SOME LINGERING GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KTS AND ENHANCED 4-6 FT SEAS. THE SCA FLAG WILL PROBABLY BE TAKEN
DOWN LATER TODAY AND A SUB-SCA PERIOD IS EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR OR BELOW 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AT 15 TO 20 MPH MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD AT THAT TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...KLINE/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...KLINE/MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...MIKETTA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210729
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
329 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD IN FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE
HIGH PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. IT WILL ENSURE A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS BE SOME CI/CS CLOUDS AT TIMES. A MAV/MET
BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPS TODAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S IN MOST SPOTS. IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALONG THE SHORE
WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY...COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. WIND WILL TEND TO SWITCH TO SRLY/SWRLY LATER TODAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL EXTEND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SKY COVER WILL
BE MOSTLY CLR THIS EVENING AND THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER MON NGT WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 40S IN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SRLY.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND ITS
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE ON
TUESDAY AND IT WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED. AS A RESULT, RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FRONT, AND SPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE REGION
UNDER A GENERAL THREAT OF TSTMS. THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WERE ADJUSTED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.

A PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA ARE FORECAST TO DROP A BIT
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 60S IN MUCH OF
OUR REGION WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME STRATOCUMULUS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN OUR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES, MAINLY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH A RIDGE
AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. IT SHOULD PULL A WARM
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF SURFACE
TROUGHS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY SOME CI/CS CLOUDS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY FROM
THE E/SE THIS MORNING THEN S/SW THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS STILL SOME PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE SCA FLAG TODAY FOR SOME LINGERING GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KTS AND ENHANCED 4-6 FT SEAS. THE SCA FLAG WILL PROBABLY BE TAKEN
DOWN LATER TODAY AND A SUB-SCA PERIOD IS EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR OR BELOW 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AT 15 TO 20 MPH MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD AT THAT TIME.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>104-
     106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>023-027.
DE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>003.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...MIKETTA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO






000
FXUS61 KPHI 210729
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
329 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL GRADUALLY LOSE ITS
INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD IN FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL AFFECT OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE
HIGH PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN
AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. IT WILL ENSURE A PLEASANT WEATHER DAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS BE SOME CI/CS CLOUDS AT TIMES. A MAV/MET
BLEND WAS USED FOR TEMPS TODAY...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE
MID/UPPER 60S IN MOST SPOTS. IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER ALONG THE SHORE
WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE BREEZE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY...COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. WIND WILL TEND TO SWITCH TO SRLY/SWRLY LATER TODAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL EXTEND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SKY COVER WILL
BE MOSTLY CLR THIS EVENING AND THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER MON NGT WITH LOWS ONLY EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 40S IN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SRLY.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND ITS
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE ON
TUESDAY AND IT WILL LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED. AS A RESULT, RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FRONT, AND SPC HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE REGION
UNDER A GENERAL THREAT OF TSTMS. THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WERE ADJUSTED TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.

A PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA ARE FORECAST TO DROP A BIT
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 60S IN MUCH OF
OUR REGION WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME STRATOCUMULUS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN OUR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES, MAINLY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH A RIDGE
AXIS PASSING OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. IT SHOULD PULL A WARM
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF SURFACE
TROUGHS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY SOME CI/CS CLOUDS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY FROM
THE E/SE THIS MORNING THEN S/SW THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS STILL SOME PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE SCA FLAG TODAY FOR SOME LINGERING GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KTS AND ENHANCED 4-6 FT SEAS. THE SCA FLAG WILL PROBABLY BE TAKEN
DOWN LATER TODAY AND A SUB-SCA PERIOD IS EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR OR BELOW 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND AT 15 TO 20 MPH MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD AT THAT TIME.
&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>104-
     106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>023-027.
DE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>003.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008-012-015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...MIKETTA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO





000
FXUS61 KPHI 210121
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
921 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND IT SHOULD LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION GRADUALLY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY, ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY AND OVER
CANADA`S MARITIME PROVINCES AND THE ADJACENT WATERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DECREASED
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT OBS,
BUT STILL EXPECT SOME OVERNIGHT MOISTURE RECOVERY. FROST ADVISORY
LOOKS ON TRACK, SO HAVE LEFT IT AS IS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR OUR REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WILL LESSEN, ALLOWING FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT.
WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED, MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE PATCHY
FROST WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 36 DEGREES, SO FROST ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS HOLDS OVER THE
REGION. MET/MAV BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURES. WINDS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER, SO COOLING MARINE IMPACT WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY LESSENED EXCEPT VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION GRADUALLY
ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 40S.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND ITS AXIS SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD EARLY
ON WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN OUR REGION LATE ON TUESDAY AND IT WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
AS A RESULT, RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH. SOME VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. IT DOES NOT SEEM AS THOUGH WE WILL
NEED TO MENTION THUNDER.

A PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA ARE FORECAST TO DROP A BIT
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 60S IN MUCH OF
OUR REGION WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME STRATOCUMULUS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN OUR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES, MAINLY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESS WITH A RIDGE AXIS
PASSING OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. IT SHOULD PULL A WARM
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF SURFACE
TROUGHS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO
PRECIPITATION. EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 KT.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS STARTING OFF EASTERLY AND
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WINDS SPEEDS RISE TO THE
6 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. NO PRECIPITATION.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
6 PM EDT UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BOTH ON THE BAY AND
NORTHERN NJ ADJACENT OCEAN WATERS. THUS...HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA TO
EXPIRE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. THE SCA CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF THE
OCEAN WATERS AS WAVE HEIGHTS AT BUOY 44009 ARE NEAR 9 FT.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION...WE`RE IN THE ZONE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THOSE WINDS START TO DIMINISH, BUT A PERSISTENT NORTH EAST
FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE SCA RANGE FOR MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES
THROUGH MONDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SCA WILL EXPIRE
THERE AT 600 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO, THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN MARINE
ZONE IS NOT AS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FETCH AND THE SCA WILL
ALSO EXPIRE THERE AT 600 PM THIS EVENING.

NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM BARNEGAT INLET SOUTHWARD. AS
A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR OR BELOW 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A GUST NORTHWEST WIND AT 15 TO 20 MPH MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD AT THAT TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>104-106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-015>023-
     027.
DE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR DEZ001>003.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO/JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210121
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
921 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND IT SHOULD LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION GRADUALLY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY, ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY AND OVER
CANADA`S MARITIME PROVINCES AND THE ADJACENT WATERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. DECREASED
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT BASED ON CURRENT OBS,
BUT STILL EXPECT SOME OVERNIGHT MOISTURE RECOVERY. FROST ADVISORY
LOOKS ON TRACK, SO HAVE LEFT IT AS IS.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR OUR REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST
WILL LESSEN, ALLOWING FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT.
WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED, MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE PATCHY
FROST WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 36 DEGREES, SO FROST ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS HOLDS OVER THE
REGION. MET/MAV BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURES. WINDS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER, SO COOLING MARINE IMPACT WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY LESSENED EXCEPT VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION GRADUALLY
ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 40S.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND ITS AXIS SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD EARLY
ON WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN OUR REGION LATE ON TUESDAY AND IT WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
AS A RESULT, RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH. SOME VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. IT DOES NOT SEEM AS THOUGH WE WILL
NEED TO MENTION THUNDER.

A PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA ARE FORECAST TO DROP A BIT
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 60S IN MUCH OF
OUR REGION WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME STRATOCUMULUS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN OUR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES, MAINLY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESS WITH A RIDGE AXIS
PASSING OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. IT SHOULD PULL A WARM
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF SURFACE
TROUGHS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO
PRECIPITATION. EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN 6 KT.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS STARTING OFF EASTERLY AND
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WINDS SPEEDS RISE TO THE
6 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. NO PRECIPITATION.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
6 PM EDT UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BOTH ON THE BAY AND
NORTHERN NJ ADJACENT OCEAN WATERS. THUS...HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA TO
EXPIRE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. THE SCA CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF THE
OCEAN WATERS AS WAVE HEIGHTS AT BUOY 44009 ARE NEAR 9 FT.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION...WE`RE IN THE ZONE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THOSE WINDS START TO DIMINISH, BUT A PERSISTENT NORTH EAST
FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE SCA RANGE FOR MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES
THROUGH MONDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SCA WILL EXPIRE
THERE AT 600 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO, THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN MARINE
ZONE IS NOT AS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FETCH AND THE SCA WILL
ALSO EXPIRE THERE AT 600 PM THIS EVENING.

NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM BARNEGAT INLET SOUTHWARD. AS
A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR OR BELOW 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A GUST NORTHWEST WIND AT 15 TO 20 MPH MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD AT THAT TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>104-106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-015>023-
     027.
DE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR DEZ001>003.
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO/JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO








000
FXUS61 KPHI 202212
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
612 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND IT SHOULD LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION GRADUALLY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY, ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY AND OVER
CANADA`S MARITIME PROVINCES AND THE ADJACENT WATERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR OUR
REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL LESSEN, ALLOWING FOR
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT. WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS
STARTED, MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE PATCHY FROST WITH TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW 36 DEGREES, SO FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE
FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS HOLDS OVER THE
REGION. MET/MAV BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURES. WINDS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER, SO COOLING MARINE IMPACT WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY LESSENED EXCEPT VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION GRADUALLY
ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 40S.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND ITS AXIS SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD EARLY
ON WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN OUR REGION LATE ON TUESDAY AND IT WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
AS A RESULT, RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH. SOME VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. IT DOES NOT SEEM AS THOUGH WE WILL
NEED TO MENTION THUNDER.

A PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA ARE FORECAST TO DROP A BIT
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 60S IN MUCH OF
OUR REGION WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME STRATOCUMULUS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN OUR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES, MAINLY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESS WITH A RIDGE AXIS
PASSING OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. IT SHOULD PULL A WARM
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF SURFACE
TROUGHS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO
PRECIPITATION. EASTERLY WINDS LIGHTEN THIS EVENING TO WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 6 KT.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS STARTING OFF EASTERLY AND
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WINDS SPEEDS RISE TO THE
6 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. NO PRECIPITATION.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
6 PM EDT UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BOTH ON THE BAY AND
NORTHERN NJ ADJACENT OCEAN WATERS. THUS...HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA TO
EXPIRE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. THE SCA CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF THE
OCEAN WATERS AS WAVE HEIGHTS AT BUOY 44009 ARE NEAR 9 FT.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION...WE`RE IN THE ZONE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THOSE WINDS START TO DIMINISH, BUT A PERSISTENT NORTH EAST
FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE SCA RANGE FOR MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES
THROUGH MONDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SCA WILL EXPIRE
THERE AT 600 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO, THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN MARINE
ZONE IS NOT AS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FETCH AND THE SCA WILL
ALSO EXPIRE THERE AT 600 PM THIS EVENING.

NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM BARNEGAT INLET SOUTHWARD. AS
A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR OR BELOW 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A GUST NORTHWEST WIND AT 15 TO 20 MPH MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD AT THAT TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     PAZ060-101>104-106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ012-013-015>023-027.
DE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     DEZ001>003.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO/JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO







000
FXUS61 KPHI 202212
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
612 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND IT SHOULD LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION GRADUALLY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY, ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY AND OVER
CANADA`S MARITIME PROVINCES AND THE ADJACENT WATERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR OUR
REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL LESSEN, ALLOWING FOR
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT. WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS
STARTED, MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE PATCHY FROST WITH TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW 36 DEGREES, SO FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE
FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS HOLDS OVER THE
REGION. MET/MAV BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURES. WINDS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER, SO COOLING MARINE IMPACT WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY LESSENED EXCEPT VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION GRADUALLY
ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 40S.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND ITS AXIS SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD EARLY
ON WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN OUR REGION LATE ON TUESDAY AND IT WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
AS A RESULT, RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH. SOME VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. IT DOES NOT SEEM AS THOUGH WE WILL
NEED TO MENTION THUNDER.

A PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA ARE FORECAST TO DROP A BIT
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 60S IN MUCH OF
OUR REGION WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME STRATOCUMULUS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN OUR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES, MAINLY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESS WITH A RIDGE AXIS
PASSING OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. IT SHOULD PULL A WARM
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF SURFACE
TROUGHS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO
PRECIPITATION. EASTERLY WINDS LIGHTEN THIS EVENING TO WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 6 KT.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS STARTING OFF EASTERLY AND
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WINDS SPEEDS RISE TO THE
6 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. NO PRECIPITATION.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
6 PM EDT UPDATE...WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BOTH ON THE BAY AND
NORTHERN NJ ADJACENT OCEAN WATERS. THUS...HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA TO
EXPIRE FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. THE SCA CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF THE
OCEAN WATERS AS WAVE HEIGHTS AT BUOY 44009 ARE NEAR 9 FT.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION...WE`RE IN THE ZONE BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THOSE WINDS START TO DIMINISH, BUT A PERSISTENT NORTH EAST
FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE SCA RANGE FOR MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES
THROUGH MONDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SCA WILL EXPIRE
THERE AT 600 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO, THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN MARINE
ZONE IS NOT AS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FETCH AND THE SCA WILL
ALSO EXPIRE THERE AT 600 PM THIS EVENING.

NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM BARNEGAT INLET SOUTHWARD. AS
A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR OR BELOW 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A GUST NORTHWEST WIND AT 15 TO 20 MPH MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD AT THAT TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     PAZ060-101>104-106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ012-013-015>023-027.
DE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     DEZ001>003.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO/JOHNSON
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO








000
FXUS61 KPHI 201938
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND IT SHOULD LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION GRADUALLY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY, ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY AND OVER
CANADA`S MARITIME PROVINCES AND THE ADJACENT WATERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR OUR
REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL LESSEN, ALLOWING FOR
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT. WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS
STARTED, MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE PATCHY FROST WITH TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW 36 DEGREES, SO FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE
FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS HOLDS OVER THE
REGION. MET/MAV BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURES. WINDS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER, SO COOLING MARINE IMPACT WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY LESSENED EXCEPT VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION GRADUALLY
ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 40S.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND ITS AXIS SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD EARLY
ON WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN OUR REGION LATE ON TUESDAY AND IT WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
AS A RESULT, RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH. SOME VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. IT DOES NOT SEEM AS THOUGH WE WILL
NEED TO MENTION THUNDER.

A PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA ARE FORECAST TO DROP A BIT
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 60S IN MUCH OF
OUR REGION WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN THR DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME STRATOCUMULUS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN OUR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES, MAINLY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESS WITH A RIDGE AXIS
PASSING OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. IT SHOULD PULL A WARM
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF SURFACE
TROUGHS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO
PRECIPITATION. EASTERLY WINDS LIGHTEN THIS EVENING TO WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 6 KT.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS STARTING OFF EASTERLY AND
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WINDS SPEEDS RISE TO THE
6 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. NO PRECIPITATION.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE`RE IN THE ZONE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THOSE WINDS START TO
DIMINISH, BUT A PERSISTENT NORTH EAST FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE
SCA RANGE FOR MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES THROUGH MONDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SCA WILL EXPIRE
THERE AT 600 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO, THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN MARINE
ZONE IS NOT AS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FETCH AND THE SCA WILL
ALSO EXPIRE THERE AT 600 PM THIS EVENING.

NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM BARNEGAT INLET SOUTHWARD. AS
A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR OR BELOW 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A GUST NORTHWEST WIND AT 15 TO 20 MPH MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD AT THAT TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     PAZ060-101>104-106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ012-013-015>023-027.
DE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     DEZ001>003.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO








000
FXUS61 KPHI 201938
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE FARTHER OUT TO SEA AND IT SHOULD LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION GRADUALLY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND IT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY, ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY AND OVER
CANADA`S MARITIME PROVINCES AND THE ADJACENT WATERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR OUR
REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL LESSEN, ALLOWING FOR
COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN LAST NIGHT. WHERE GROWING SEASON HAS
STARTED, MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE PATCHY FROST WITH TEMPERATURES AT
OR BELOW 36 DEGREES, SO FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE
FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD WEATHER AS RIDGE AXIS HOLDS OVER THE
REGION. MET/MAV BLEND USED FOR TEMPERATURES. WINDS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER, SO COOLING MARINE IMPACT WILL BE
SUBSTANTIALLY LESSENED EXCEPT VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION GRADUALLY
ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 40S.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND ITS AXIS SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD EARLY
ON WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN OUR REGION LATE ON TUESDAY AND IT WILL
LIKELY BRING RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
AS A RESULT, RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LESS THAN
A QUARTER INCH. SOME VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. IT DOES NOT SEEM AS THOUGH WE WILL
NEED TO MENTION THUNDER.

A PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 HPA ARE FORECAST TO DROP A BIT
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS FOR WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT GET MUCH ABOVE THE LOWER 60S IN MUCH OF
OUR REGION WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 50S IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN THR DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME STRATOCUMULUS. THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN OUR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES, MAINLY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH OUR REGION.

THE MID LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESS WITH A RIDGE AXIS
PASSING OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
WEST IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION BRINGING DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON FRIDAY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. IT SHOULD PULL A WARM
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF SURFACE
TROUGHS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO NOSE INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NO
PRECIPITATION. EASTERLY WINDS LIGHTEN THIS EVENING TO WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 6 KT.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS STARTING OFF EASTERLY AND
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WINDS SPEEDS RISE TO THE
6 TO 10 KNOT RANGE. NO PRECIPITATION.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE`RE IN THE ZONE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THOSE WINDS START TO
DIMINISH, BUT A PERSISTENT NORTH EAST FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN THE
SCA RANGE FOR MOST OF THE OCEAN ZONES THROUGH MONDAY.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SCA WILL EXPIRE
THERE AT 600 PM THIS EVENING. ALSO, THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN MARINE
ZONE IS NOT AS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FETCH AND THE SCA WILL
ALSO EXPIRE THERE AT 600 PM THIS EVENING.

NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET EARLY MONDAY
NIGHT ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM BARNEGAT INLET SOUTHWARD. AS
A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT ON
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR OR BELOW 30 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A GUST NORTHWEST WIND AT 15 TO 20 MPH MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD AT THAT TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     PAZ060-101>104-106.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     NJZ012-013-015>023-027.
DE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     DEZ001>003.
MD...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201456
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1056 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WILL
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOST RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF HRRR
GUIDANCE INDICATE STRONGER EFFECT OF OCEAN-COOLED AIR
TEMPERATURES DUE TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. AS A RESULT, HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON YESTERDAY`S OBSERVATIONS AT THE BUOYS,
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED MARINE AREA AIR TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.

LAST TWO RUNS OF WAVEWATCH SUGGESTED HIGHER WAVES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST, SO MARINE UPDATE RAISED SEAS BY 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE OCEAN
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR
OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE LESS THAN SATURDAY NIGHT`S...SO LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE ANY
HEADLINES...WE WILL JUST KEEP THE PATCHY WORDING FOR NOW. LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST AREAS...WARMER IN THE METRO AND COOLER OVER
THE NRN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MOVES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, IT/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA
ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ONLY ABOUT ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT, SO NO
RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE PARENT LOW IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TREKS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING LOW AND INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THURSDAY. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION.
THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA, AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL, SO NO EXTREMES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOST RECENT TAF UPDATES SHOW SLIGHTLY STRONGER EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS. A SHIELD OF CI/CS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA PRESENTLY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE
WRN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE PASSES FAR TO THE
SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. WINDS HAVE INCREASED OUT OF THE EAST THIS
MORNING AND WILL BECOME E/SE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE`RE IN THE ZONE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THESE SYSTEMS HAVE
CREATED A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LAST TWO RUNS OF WAVEWATCH HAVE SHOWN HIGHER SEAS
IN ALL BUT OUR NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE, SO SEAS WERE INCREASED IN
THE MID-MORNING UPDATE. SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL THE WATERS WITH
HIGHEST SEAS IN OUR SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES, WHERE WAVES MAY
APPROACH 9 FEET.

NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD. SCA MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY FOR SOME MARINE ZONES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY TO THE NJ PINE
BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED DRY
AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND GUSTS
OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...O`HARA/SZATKOWSKI







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201456
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1056 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WILL
INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION LATE TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ARE ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOST RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF HRRR
GUIDANCE INDICATE STRONGER EFFECT OF OCEAN-COOLED AIR
TEMPERATURES DUE TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW. AS A RESULT, HAVE
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON YESTERDAY`S OBSERVATIONS AT THE BUOYS,
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED MARINE AREA AIR TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.

LAST TWO RUNS OF WAVEWATCH SUGGESTED HIGHER WAVES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST, SO MARINE UPDATE RAISED SEAS BY 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE OCEAN
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR
OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY AND THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SHOULD BE LESS THAN SATURDAY NIGHT`S...SO LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER. THERE MAY BE SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE AREA...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO RAISE ANY
HEADLINES...WE WILL JUST KEEP THE PATCHY WORDING FOR NOW. LOWS IN
THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST AREAS...WARMER IN THE METRO AND COOLER OVER
THE NRN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL KEEP WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR AREA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THEN AS LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MOVES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, IT/S ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AREA
ON TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ONLY ABOUT ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT, SO NO
RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE PARENT LOW IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TREKS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MID-WEEK. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING LOW AND INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THURSDAY. A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION.
THEN MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA, AND
ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, INFLUENCES OUR WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL, SO NO EXTREMES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOST RECENT TAF UPDATES SHOW SLIGHTLY STRONGER EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS. A SHIELD OF CI/CS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA PRESENTLY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE
WRN ATLANTIC OCEAN TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE PASSES FAR TO THE
SOUTH. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. WINDS HAVE INCREASED OUT OF THE EAST THIS
MORNING AND WILL BECOME E/SE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE`RE IN THE ZONE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THESE SYSTEMS HAVE
CREATED A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. LAST TWO RUNS OF WAVEWATCH HAVE SHOWN HIGHER SEAS
IN ALL BUT OUR NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE, SO SEAS WERE INCREASED IN
THE MID-MORNING UPDATE. SCA CONTINUES FOR ALL THE WATERS WITH
HIGHEST SEAS IN OUR SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES, WHERE WAVES MAY
APPROACH 9 FEET.

NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TODAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS OVER THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS MAY REMAIN NEAR 5 FEET INTO MONDAY ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS MAINLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD. SCA MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY FOR SOME MARINE ZONES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE GOING TO FLIP OUR FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY TO THE NJ PINE
BARRENS AS THEY WILL COME CLOSEST TO THE CONFLUENCE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS, LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND CONTINUED DRY
AND DRYING FINE FUELS. CLOSER TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD NOT BE REACHED. ELSEWHERE, WIND GUSTS
OVERALL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ON MONDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER IN ALL AREAS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS MIGHT NOT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...SZATKOWSKI/O`HARA
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA/O`HARA
MARINE...SZATKOWSKI/MIKETTA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...O`HARA/SZATKOWSKI








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