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000
FXUS61 KPHI 290100
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SINK SOUTHEAST
AND REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY. ON ITS HEALS WILL BE A FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE AND
THE VORTICITY IMPULSE TO THE WEST IS BEGINNING TO SLIDE INTO OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, AND THE DELMARVA FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS, SO WE`LL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. ALL SHOWERS
SHOULD FULLY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE VORTICITY IMPULSE
SLIDES TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT AND WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS WE COULD SEE GUSTS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THEY WERE DURING THE DAY. NONE-THE-
LESS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP US WELL
MIXED SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AS
THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WENT WITH A STRAIGHT BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE TO PROVIDE A RATHER
TRANQUIL DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE TAKING PLACE BUT THIS WILL
ALSO LIMIT THE HEIGHTS TO WHICH WE CAN MIX. THE AIRMASS ALOFT STARTS
TO MODERATE LATER IN THE DAY AND AS THE WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN ON
SATURDAY. WE EDGED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS TOMORROW
THOUGH IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WITH ANY DOWNSLOPING ADDITION WE
COULD TACK ON ANOTHER DEGREE...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER-40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...VERY LIMITED MODEL AGREEMENT...AND A
SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT WEEK, THIS DEFINITELY HAS
ALL THE HALLMARKS OF A TRANSITION SEASON PATTERN.

SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY...THE FIRST LOW TO TALK ABOUT IN THE LONG
TERM SHOULD PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH, CROSSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION,
PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER, IF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY ENOUGH, SOME SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TIME. ANY WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BRIEF. HOWEVER, MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS LOW LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE ECMWF AND CMC HAVE A TRACK MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS, KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA IN THE COLD
SECTOR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. HOWEVER, EVEN IN THE COLD
SECTOR, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF THE SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER, WITH THE
FURTHER SOUTH TRACK, HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW, HAVE
KEPT MOSTLY RAIN MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AS IT APPEARS TO BE A
FAST MOVING SYSTEM. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE POCONOS AND NW
NJ WHERE IF PRECIP CAN LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS, SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH SHOULD FIRST BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION THEN TRACK EAST OFF THE COAST THROUGH THIS TIME, BRINGING
WHAT APPEARS AT THIS POINT TO BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR BEAUTIFUL
SPRING DAYS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HERE IS WHERE THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES ARE REALLY NOTICEABLE. WE`LL BE WATCHING TWO SURFACE
LOWS THROUGH THIS TIME. ONE WILL BE LIFTING INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WHILE THE OVER WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THAT SAME PERIOD BEFORE LIFTING NE
TOWARD OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS, THE FIRST
LOW WILL PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY.
LIKE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THOUGH, KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF AS THAT FAR NORTH OF A TRACK DOESN/T REALLY FAVOR A STRONG
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR US. THE SECOND LOW HOWEVER, TRACKING VERY
CLOSE TO US, APPEARS TO BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
(POSSIBLY EVEN THUNDERSTORMS - THOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE
VERY ELEVATED AT THIS TIME), AND ITS COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING - TONIGHT...VFR. CIGS AROUND 5,000-8000 FEET WILL
SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS LIFT AND DISSIPATE. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW-20 KTS RANGE.

SUNDAY...VFR. BY MID- SUNDAY MORNING THE GUSTS BEGIN TO WANE AND
WINDS SLACKEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
IN SHRA AND SHSN PRIMARILY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED. COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN ABRUPT
SHIFT OF GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH -RA POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...SHRA MOVING IN
LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE CONTINUE WITH THE SCA THROUGH MID-SUNDAY AS
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25
KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS, AND WITH A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COLDER AIR TONIGHT, WE COULD GUSTS CLIMB UPWARDS OF 30
KNOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. WE LOSE THE GUSTS RATHER QUICKLY AND WITH THE
OFFSHORE WINDS THE SEAS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP AS WELL. WINDS BEGIN TO
VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS, AND POSSIBLY GALE
CONDITIONS, IS POSSIBLE IN THE INCREASING SW FLOW PRECEDING THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH
MONDAY, BRINGING AN ABRUPT SHIFT OF WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, IF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST, WINDS ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME, BUT THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 290100
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SINK SOUTHEAST
AND REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY. ON ITS HEALS WILL BE A FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE AND
THE VORTICITY IMPULSE TO THE WEST IS BEGINNING TO SLIDE INTO OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, AND THE DELMARVA FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS, SO WE`LL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. ALL SHOWERS
SHOULD FULLY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE VORTICITY IMPULSE
SLIDES TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT AND WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS WE COULD SEE GUSTS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THEY WERE DURING THE DAY. NONE-THE-
LESS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP US WELL
MIXED SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AS
THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WENT WITH A STRAIGHT BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE TO PROVIDE A RATHER
TRANQUIL DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE TAKING PLACE BUT THIS WILL
ALSO LIMIT THE HEIGHTS TO WHICH WE CAN MIX. THE AIRMASS ALOFT STARTS
TO MODERATE LATER IN THE DAY AND AS THE WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN ON
SATURDAY. WE EDGED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS TOMORROW
THOUGH IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WITH ANY DOWNSLOPING ADDITION WE
COULD TACK ON ANOTHER DEGREE...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER-40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...VERY LIMITED MODEL AGREEMENT...AND A
SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT WEEK, THIS DEFINITELY HAS
ALL THE HALLMARKS OF A TRANSITION SEASON PATTERN.

SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY...THE FIRST LOW TO TALK ABOUT IN THE LONG
TERM SHOULD PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH, CROSSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION,
PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER, IF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY ENOUGH, SOME SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TIME. ANY WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BRIEF. HOWEVER, MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS LOW LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE ECMWF AND CMC HAVE A TRACK MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS, KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA IN THE COLD
SECTOR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. HOWEVER, EVEN IN THE COLD
SECTOR, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF THE SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER, WITH THE
FURTHER SOUTH TRACK, HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW, HAVE
KEPT MOSTLY RAIN MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AS IT APPEARS TO BE A
FAST MOVING SYSTEM. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE POCONOS AND NW
NJ WHERE IF PRECIP CAN LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS, SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH SHOULD FIRST BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION THEN TRACK EAST OFF THE COAST THROUGH THIS TIME, BRINGING
WHAT APPEARS AT THIS POINT TO BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR BEAUTIFUL
SPRING DAYS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HERE IS WHERE THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES ARE REALLY NOTICEABLE. WE`LL BE WATCHING TWO SURFACE
LOWS THROUGH THIS TIME. ONE WILL BE LIFTING INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WHILE THE OVER WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THAT SAME PERIOD BEFORE LIFTING NE
TOWARD OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS, THE FIRST
LOW WILL PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY.
LIKE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THOUGH, KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF AS THAT FAR NORTH OF A TRACK DOESN/T REALLY FAVOR A STRONG
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR US. THE SECOND LOW HOWEVER, TRACKING VERY
CLOSE TO US, APPEARS TO BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
(POSSIBLY EVEN THUNDERSTORMS - THOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE
VERY ELEVATED AT THIS TIME), AND ITS COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING - TONIGHT...VFR. CIGS AROUND 5,000-8000 FEET WILL
SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS LIFT AND DISSIPATE. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW-20 KTS RANGE.

SUNDAY...VFR. BY MID- SUNDAY MORNING THE GUSTS BEGIN TO WANE AND
WINDS SLACKEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
IN SHRA AND SHSN PRIMARILY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED. COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN ABRUPT
SHIFT OF GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH -RA POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...SHRA MOVING IN
LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE CONTINUE WITH THE SCA THROUGH MID-SUNDAY AS
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25
KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS, AND WITH A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COLDER AIR TONIGHT, WE COULD GUSTS CLIMB UPWARDS OF 30
KNOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. WE LOSE THE GUSTS RATHER QUICKLY AND WITH THE
OFFSHORE WINDS THE SEAS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP AS WELL. WINDS BEGIN TO
VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS, AND POSSIBLY GALE
CONDITIONS, IS POSSIBLE IN THE INCREASING SW FLOW PRECEDING THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH
MONDAY, BRINGING AN ABRUPT SHIFT OF WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, IF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST, WINDS ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME, BUT THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 290100
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SINK SOUTHEAST
AND REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY. ON ITS HEALS WILL BE A FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE AND
THE VORTICITY IMPULSE TO THE WEST IS BEGINNING TO SLIDE INTO OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, AND THE DELMARVA FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS, SO WE`LL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. ALL SHOWERS
SHOULD FULLY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE VORTICITY IMPULSE
SLIDES TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT AND WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS WE COULD SEE GUSTS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THEY WERE DURING THE DAY. NONE-THE-
LESS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP US WELL
MIXED SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AS
THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WENT WITH A STRAIGHT BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE TO PROVIDE A RATHER
TRANQUIL DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE TAKING PLACE BUT THIS WILL
ALSO LIMIT THE HEIGHTS TO WHICH WE CAN MIX. THE AIRMASS ALOFT STARTS
TO MODERATE LATER IN THE DAY AND AS THE WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN ON
SATURDAY. WE EDGED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS TOMORROW
THOUGH IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WITH ANY DOWNSLOPING ADDITION WE
COULD TACK ON ANOTHER DEGREE...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER-40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...VERY LIMITED MODEL AGREEMENT...AND A
SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT WEEK, THIS DEFINITELY HAS
ALL THE HALLMARKS OF A TRANSITION SEASON PATTERN.

SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY...THE FIRST LOW TO TALK ABOUT IN THE LONG
TERM SHOULD PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH, CROSSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION,
PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER, IF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY ENOUGH, SOME SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TIME. ANY WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BRIEF. HOWEVER, MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS LOW LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE ECMWF AND CMC HAVE A TRACK MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS, KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA IN THE COLD
SECTOR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. HOWEVER, EVEN IN THE COLD
SECTOR, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF THE SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER, WITH THE
FURTHER SOUTH TRACK, HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW, HAVE
KEPT MOSTLY RAIN MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AS IT APPEARS TO BE A
FAST MOVING SYSTEM. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE POCONOS AND NW
NJ WHERE IF PRECIP CAN LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS, SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH SHOULD FIRST BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION THEN TRACK EAST OFF THE COAST THROUGH THIS TIME, BRINGING
WHAT APPEARS AT THIS POINT TO BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR BEAUTIFUL
SPRING DAYS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HERE IS WHERE THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES ARE REALLY NOTICEABLE. WE`LL BE WATCHING TWO SURFACE
LOWS THROUGH THIS TIME. ONE WILL BE LIFTING INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WHILE THE OVER WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THAT SAME PERIOD BEFORE LIFTING NE
TOWARD OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS, THE FIRST
LOW WILL PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY.
LIKE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THOUGH, KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF AS THAT FAR NORTH OF A TRACK DOESN/T REALLY FAVOR A STRONG
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR US. THE SECOND LOW HOWEVER, TRACKING VERY
CLOSE TO US, APPEARS TO BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
(POSSIBLY EVEN THUNDERSTORMS - THOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE
VERY ELEVATED AT THIS TIME), AND ITS COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING - TONIGHT...VFR. CIGS AROUND 5,000-8000 FEET WILL
SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS LIFT AND DISSIPATE. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW-20 KTS RANGE.

SUNDAY...VFR. BY MID- SUNDAY MORNING THE GUSTS BEGIN TO WANE AND
WINDS SLACKEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
IN SHRA AND SHSN PRIMARILY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED. COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN ABRUPT
SHIFT OF GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH -RA POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...SHRA MOVING IN
LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE CONTINUE WITH THE SCA THROUGH MID-SUNDAY AS
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25
KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS, AND WITH A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COLDER AIR TONIGHT, WE COULD GUSTS CLIMB UPWARDS OF 30
KNOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. WE LOSE THE GUSTS RATHER QUICKLY AND WITH THE
OFFSHORE WINDS THE SEAS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP AS WELL. WINDS BEGIN TO
VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS, AND POSSIBLY GALE
CONDITIONS, IS POSSIBLE IN THE INCREASING SW FLOW PRECEDING THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH
MONDAY, BRINGING AN ABRUPT SHIFT OF WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, IF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST, WINDS ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME, BUT THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 290100
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SINK SOUTHEAST
AND REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY. ON ITS HEALS WILL BE A FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE AND
THE VORTICITY IMPULSE TO THE WEST IS BEGINNING TO SLIDE INTO OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING. THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, AND THE DELMARVA FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS, SO WE`LL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. ALL SHOWERS
SHOULD FULLY DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE VORTICITY IMPULSE
SLIDES TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT AND WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS WE COULD SEE GUSTS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THEY WERE DURING THE DAY. NONE-THE-
LESS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP US WELL
MIXED SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AS
THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WENT WITH A STRAIGHT BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE TO PROVIDE A RATHER
TRANQUIL DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE TAKING PLACE BUT THIS WILL
ALSO LIMIT THE HEIGHTS TO WHICH WE CAN MIX. THE AIRMASS ALOFT STARTS
TO MODERATE LATER IN THE DAY AND AS THE WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN ON
SATURDAY. WE EDGED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS TOMORROW
THOUGH IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WITH ANY DOWNSLOPING ADDITION WE
COULD TACK ON ANOTHER DEGREE...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER-40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...VERY LIMITED MODEL AGREEMENT...AND A
SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT WEEK, THIS DEFINITELY HAS
ALL THE HALLMARKS OF A TRANSITION SEASON PATTERN.

SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY...THE FIRST LOW TO TALK ABOUT IN THE LONG
TERM SHOULD PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH, CROSSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION,
PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER, IF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY ENOUGH, SOME SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TIME. ANY WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BRIEF. HOWEVER, MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS LOW LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE ECMWF AND CMC HAVE A TRACK MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS, KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA IN THE COLD
SECTOR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. HOWEVER, EVEN IN THE COLD
SECTOR, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF THE SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER, WITH THE
FURTHER SOUTH TRACK, HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW, HAVE
KEPT MOSTLY RAIN MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AS IT APPEARS TO BE A
FAST MOVING SYSTEM. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE POCONOS AND NW
NJ WHERE IF PRECIP CAN LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS, SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH SHOULD FIRST BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION THEN TRACK EAST OFF THE COAST THROUGH THIS TIME, BRINGING
WHAT APPEARS AT THIS POINT TO BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR BEAUTIFUL
SPRING DAYS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HERE IS WHERE THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES ARE REALLY NOTICEABLE. WE`LL BE WATCHING TWO SURFACE
LOWS THROUGH THIS TIME. ONE WILL BE LIFTING INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WHILE THE OVER WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THAT SAME PERIOD BEFORE LIFTING NE
TOWARD OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS, THE FIRST
LOW WILL PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY.
LIKE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THOUGH, KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF AS THAT FAR NORTH OF A TRACK DOESN/T REALLY FAVOR A STRONG
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR US. THE SECOND LOW HOWEVER, TRACKING VERY
CLOSE TO US, APPEARS TO BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
(POSSIBLY EVEN THUNDERSTORMS - THOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE
VERY ELEVATED AT THIS TIME), AND ITS COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING - TONIGHT...VFR. CIGS AROUND 5,000-8000 FEET WILL
SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS LIFT AND DISSIPATE. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW-20 KTS RANGE.

SUNDAY...VFR. BY MID- SUNDAY MORNING THE GUSTS BEGIN TO WANE AND
WINDS SLACKEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
IN SHRA AND SHSN PRIMARILY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED. COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN ABRUPT
SHIFT OF GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH -RA POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...SHRA MOVING IN
LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE CONTINUE WITH THE SCA THROUGH MID-SUNDAY AS
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25
KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS, AND WITH A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COLDER AIR TONIGHT, WE COULD GUSTS CLIMB UPWARDS OF 30
KNOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. WE LOSE THE GUSTS RATHER QUICKLY AND WITH THE
OFFSHORE WINDS THE SEAS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP AS WELL. WINDS BEGIN TO
VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS, AND POSSIBLY GALE
CONDITIONS, IS POSSIBLE IN THE INCREASING SW FLOW PRECEDING THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH
MONDAY, BRINGING AN ABRUPT SHIFT OF WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, IF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST, WINDS ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME, BUT THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281954
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
354 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SINK SOUTHEAST
AND REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON MONDAY. ON ITS HEALS WILL BE A FAST MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE DELMARVA
HAVE ALL BUT WEAKENED AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING CLOSE
TO 40F, ITS DOUBTFUL ANYTHING IS ACTUALLY STICKING ANYMORE. THAT
BEING SAID, THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STILL IS PIVOTING THROUGH THE
REGION AS WE SPEAK. A BIT MORE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
COINCIDING WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT DRIFTING THROUGH SO WE COULD
STILL SEE WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THE BETTER AREAS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
DELMARVA AND PARTS OF THE PHILLY METRO AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE,
CLOSER TO THE NJ COAST, THAT A WEAK TROUGH-LIKE FEATURE TRIES TO
SPARK A FEW BETTER ORGANIZED SHOWERS. THE RGEM IS THE MORE ROBUST
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT SOME OF THE SREF CORE MEMBERS SHOW THIS AS
WELL. NOT ENTIRELY SURE, IF IT FORMS, IT WOULD HAVE MUCH LAND
BASED IMPACTS, SO WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS FROM PHILLY SOUTHWARD.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT AND WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS WE COULD SEE GUSTS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THEY WERE DURING THE DAY. NONE-THE-
LESS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP US WELL
MIXED SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AS
THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WENT WITH A STRAIGHT BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE TO PROVIDE A RATHER
TRANQUIL DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE TAKING PLACE BUT THIS WILL
ALSO LIMIT THE HEIGHTS TO WHICH WE CAN MIX. THE AIRMASS ALOFT STARTS
TO MODERATE LATER IN THE DAY AND AS THE WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN ON
SATURDAY. WE EDGED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS TOMORROW
THOUGH IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WITH ANY DOWNSLOPING ADDITION WE
COULD TACK ON ANOTHER DEGREE...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER-40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...VERY LIMITED MODEL AGREEMENT...AND A
SERIES OF FRONTAL PASSAGES OVER THE NEXT WEEK, THIS DEFINITELY HAS
ALL THE HALLMARKS OF A TRANSITION SEASON PATTERN.

SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY...THE FIRST LOW TO TALK ABOUT IN THE LONG
TERM SHOULD PASS WELL TO OUR NORTH, CROSSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION,
PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.
HOWEVER, IF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH EARLY ENOUGH, SOME SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE FALL LINE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TIME. ANY WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BRIEF. HOWEVER, MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON
TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS LOW LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE. THE ECMWF AND CMC HAVE A TRACK MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS, KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA IN THE COLD
SECTOR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. HOWEVER, EVEN IN THE COLD
SECTOR, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE IF THE SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER, WITH THE
FURTHER SOUTH TRACK, HOW MUCH SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW, HAVE
KEPT MOSTLY RAIN MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AS IT APPEARS TO BE A
FAST MOVING SYSTEM. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE POCONOS AND NW
NJ WHERE IF PRECIP CAN LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS, SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH SHOULD FIRST BUILD IN OVER THE
REGION THEN TRACK EAST OFF THE COAST THROUGH THIS TIME, BRINGING
WHAT APPEARS AT THIS POINT TO BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR BEAUTIFUL
SPRING DAYS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HERE IS WHERE THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES ARE REALLY NOTICEABLE. WE`LL BE WATCHING TWO SURFACE
LOWS THROUGH THIS TIME. ONE WILL BE LIFTING INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WHILE THE OVER WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THAT SAME PERIOD BEFORE LIFTING NE
TOWARD OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. IF YOU BELIEVE THE GFS, THE FIRST
LOW WILL PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY.
LIKE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THOUGH, KEPT THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF AS THAT FAR NORTH OF A TRACK DOESN/T REALLY FAVOR A STRONG
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR US. THE SECOND LOW HOWEVER, TRACKING VERY
CLOSE TO US, APPEARS TO BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
(POSSIBLY EVEN THUNDERSTORMS - THOUGH INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE
VERY ELEVATED AT THIS TIME), AND ITS COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING - TONIGHT...VFR. BROKEN DECK AROUND 5KFT. WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY OCCUR. NOT
CONFIDENT ON DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACTS SO WE WILL NOT CARRY A TEMPO
AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCES MAY BE SOUTH AND WEST OF ILG. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW-20 KTS RANGE.

SUNDAY...VFR. CEILINGS LIFT A BIT AND SKIES BEGIN TO
SCATTER/CLEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER, BETTER, SURGE OF COLD AIR
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS THEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
PRODUCED. BY MID- SUNDAY MORNING THE GUSTS BEGIN TO WANE AND WINDS
SLACKEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
IN SHRA AND SHSN PRIMARILY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED. COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING AN ABRUPT
SHIFT OF GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

TUESDAY...MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH -RA POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS...SHRA MOVING IN
LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE CONTINUE WITH THE SCA THROUGH MID-SUNDAY AS
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25
KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS, AND WITH A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COLDER AIR TONIGHT, WE COULD GUSTS CLIMB UPWARDS OF 30
KNOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. WE LOSE THE GUSTS RATHER QUICKLY AND WITH THE
OFFSHORE WINDS THE SEAS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP AS WELL. WINDS BEGIN TO
VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS, AND POSSIBLYGALE
CONDITIONS, IS POSSIBLE IN THE INCREASING SW FLOW PRECEDING THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP THROUGH
MONDAY, BRINGING AN ABRUPT SHIFT OF WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS. GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, IF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST, WINDS ABOVE 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE
PRIMARILY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS NEAR OR ABOVE 5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME, BUT THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

THURSDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281837
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
237 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SINK SOUTHEAST
AND REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NEAR OR THROUGH THE AREA
LATE ON TUESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO REACH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY MORNING AND APPROACH OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADAR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE DELMARVA
HAVE ALL BUT WEAKENED AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING CLOSE
TO 40F, ITS DOUBTFUL ANYTHING IS ACTUALLY STICKING ANYMORE. THAT
BEING SAID, THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STILL IS PIVOTING THROUGH THE
REGION AS WE SPEAK. A BIT MORE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
COINCIDING WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT DRIFTING THROUGH SO WE COULD
STILL SEE WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THE BETTER AREAS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
DELMARVA AND PARTS OF THE PHILLY METRO AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE,
CLOSER TO THE NJ COAST, THAT A WEAK TROUGH-LIKE FEATURE TRIES TO
SPARK A FEW BETTER ORGANIZED SHOWERS. THE RGEM IS THE MORE ROBUST
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT SOME OF THE SREF CORE MEMBERS SHOW THIS AS
WELL. NOT ENTIRELY SURE, IF IT FORMS, IT WOULD HAVE MUCH LAND
BASED IMPACTS, SO WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS FROM PHILLY SOUTHWARD.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT AND WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS WE COULD SEE GUSTS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THEY WERE DURING THE DAY. NONE-THE-
LESS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP US WELL
MIXED SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AS
THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WENT WITH A STRAIGHT BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS
TONIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE TO PROVIDE A RATHER
TRANQUIL DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE TAKING PLACE BUT THIS WILL
ALSO LIMIT THE HEIGHTS TO WHICH WE CAN MIX. THE AIRMASS ALOFT STARTS
TO MODERATE LATER IN THE DAY AND AS THE WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN ON
SATURDAY. WE EDGED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS TOMORROW
THOUGH IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WITH ANY DOWNSLOPING ADDITION WE
COULD TACK ON ANOTHER DEGREE...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER-40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM WITH A COUPLE OF PCPN SHOTS POSSIBLE. THE
WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKED BETTER THAN THE GFS, BOTH
MODELS WERE ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND 925MB WITH ANY ERRORS
ON THE COLD SIDE BY ABOUT 1C. THE DP/DT WITH THE MODELS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS SHOWING A DEEPER EAST COAST TROF. BASED
ON THIS MOVING FORWARD WE WERE SLOWER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
EVENTS.

AN AIR MASS MODIFICATION WITH DECREASING WINDS IS PREDICTED FOR
SUNDAY. GIVEN THE COLD START, CHANCES ARE THAT THE MAX TEMPS
WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THAN USUAL. GIVEN FULL
SUN AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND, WE WENT FULL ADIABATIC
WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO END OF THE AFTERNOON SOUNDING
SUGGESTED MAX TEMPS.

THE WEAKER OF THE NEXT TWO SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH OUR AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, BUT THE
PREDICTED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FGEN FORCING ARE MORE MUTED. THE JET IS
NOT IN A BAD POSITION. GIVEN THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE INITIAL
AIR MASS, MODELS ARE NOT PREDICTING MUCH PCPN. BECAUSE OF THE DPVA
AND THE MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, PCPN SHOULD BE FALLING FROM A
MID CLOUD DECK. NOT SURE IF IT WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND, BUT FOR
NOW WE WENT HIGHER THAN STAT GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE FORCING. WHILE
A LLJ WILL BE WARMING THE SUB CLOUD LAYER AND MIGHT BE ABLE TO OFFSET
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS, SNOW AS A PTYPE IS A POSSIBILITY IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. BECAUSE QPF AMOUNTS ARE LOW, ANY ACCUMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND RISE TOWARD MORNING.

USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE WEAK SYSTEMS, ANY PCPN OCCURS IN THE WAA
PHASE WITH LITTLE IF ANY WITH THE CFP ITSELF. MODELS ARE PRETTY CLOSE
ON THAT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE LAGGING STRONGER
CAA, THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD MORE THAN COMPENSATE FOR COOLING ALOFT.
A STAT GUIDANCE COMBO LOOKS DECENT FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. IT WILL
BECOME WINDIER WIND PEAK GUSTS LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 20 TO 30 MPH.

THE RIDGING FROM THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. BUT WE MAY REMAIN IN A BIT OF A GRADIENT AND
DID NOT BOTTOM MIN TEMPERATURES.

AT LEAST ON PAPER TODAY, THE NEXT ALBERTA TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOOKS MORE ROBUST. A MUCH BETTER PREDICTED COUPLET OF MID LEVEL FGEN
AND QVEC FORCING IN OUR AREA. THIS CAN BE SEEN WITH IN THE QPF
FIELD BY ITSELF. THERE ARE TRACK DIFFERENCES WITH DIFFERENCES
IN OPINION AS TO THE GREATER IMPACT. FOR NOW WE HAVE COMPROMISED
BETWEEN THE DATASETS, THUS ONSET OF UPPED PCPN CHANCES IS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL GET WARMED ON TUESDAY, IT IS STILL COLD ALOFT AND A
CHANGE TO SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH WOULD
BE THE LOGICAL OUTCOME FOR SUCH A SCENARIO. THIS ONE COULD BE
SNOWIER. BECAUSE OF DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK AND THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING, THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME BIG ERRORS WITH MAX TEMPS ON TUE. WE ARE TOWARD THE
HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM.

WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MEANS LITTLE IF ANY
DROP IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WE SHIED AWAY
FROM THE FASTER GFS CFP TIMING. THUS OUR MAX TEMPS THURSDAY ARE HIGHER
THAN ITS STAT GUIDANCE. WE ALSO PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF SHOWER CHANCES
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF`S TIMING AND PERSISTED IT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING - TONIGHT...VFR. BROKEN DECK AROUND 5KFT. WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY OCCUR. NOT
CONFIDENT ON DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACTS SO WE WILL NOT CARRY A TEMPO
AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCES MAY BE SOUTH AND WEST OF ILG. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW-20 KTS RANGE.

SUNDAY...VFR. CEILINGS LIFT A BIT AND SKIES BEGIN TO
SCATTER/CLEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER, BETTER, SURGE OF COLD AIR
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS THEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
PRODUCED. BY MID- SUNDAY MORNING THE GUSTS BEGIN TO WANE AND WINDS
SLACKEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SCATTERED RAIN, HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW, SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR LLWS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS. NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD
GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW AT HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR OR BECOMING VFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE CONTINUE WITH THE SCA THROUGH MID-SUNDAY AS
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25
KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS, AND WITH A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COLDER AIR TONIGHT, WE COULD GUSTS CLIMB UPWARDS OF 30
KNOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. WE LOSE THE GUSTS RATHER QUICKLY AND WITH THE
OFFSHORE WINDS THE SEAS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP AS WELL. WINDS BEGIN TO
VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTWHEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE INCREASING SW FLOW PRECEDING THE NEXT CFP. WHILE
AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING MONDAY, MIXING NEAR COASTAL AREAS
COULD KEEP SCA CONDITIONS PERSISTING EVEN AFTER THE CFP.

MONDAY NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS OUTLOOKED TO RETURN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE OUTLOOKED. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT WITH A CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH OR NEAR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR A STRONGER OVERALL LOW THAT MIGHT INCREASE
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/GIGI
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/HEAVENER





000
FXUS61 KPHI 281837
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
237 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SINK SOUTHEAST
AND REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NEAR OR THROUGH THE AREA
LATE ON TUESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO REACH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY MORNING AND APPROACH OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADAR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE DELMARVA
HAVE ALL BUT WEAKENED AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING CLOSE
TO 40F, ITS DOUBTFUL ANYTHING IS ACTUALLY STICKING ANYMORE. THAT
BEING SAID, THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STILL IS PIVOTING THROUGH THE
REGION AS WE SPEAK. A BIT MORE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
COINCIDING WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT DRIFTING THROUGH SO WE COULD
STILL SEE WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THE BETTER AREAS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
DELMARVA AND PARTS OF THE PHILLY METRO AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE,
CLOSER TO THE NJ COAST, THAT A WEAK TROUGH-LIKE FEATURE TRIES TO
SPARK A FEW BETTER ORGANIZED SHOWERS. THE RGEM IS THE MORE ROBUST
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT SOME OF THE SREF CORE MEMBERS SHOW THIS AS
WELL. NOT ENTIRELY SURE, IF IT FORMS, IT WOULD HAVE MUCH LAND
BASED IMPACTS, SO WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS FROM PHILLY SOUTHWARD.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT AND WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS WE COULD SEE GUSTS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THEY WERE DURING THE DAY. NONE-THE-
LESS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP US WELL
MIXED SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AS
THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WENT WITH A STRAIGHT BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS
TONIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE TO PROVIDE A RATHER
TRANQUIL DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE TAKING PLACE BUT THIS WILL
ALSO LIMIT THE HEIGHTS TO WHICH WE CAN MIX. THE AIRMASS ALOFT STARTS
TO MODERATE LATER IN THE DAY AND AS THE WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN ON
SATURDAY. WE EDGED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS TOMORROW
THOUGH IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WITH ANY DOWNSLOPING ADDITION WE
COULD TACK ON ANOTHER DEGREE...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER-40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM WITH A COUPLE OF PCPN SHOTS POSSIBLE. THE
WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKED BETTER THAN THE GFS, BOTH
MODELS WERE ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND 925MB WITH ANY ERRORS
ON THE COLD SIDE BY ABOUT 1C. THE DP/DT WITH THE MODELS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS SHOWING A DEEPER EAST COAST TROF. BASED
ON THIS MOVING FORWARD WE WERE SLOWER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
EVENTS.

AN AIR MASS MODIFICATION WITH DECREASING WINDS IS PREDICTED FOR
SUNDAY. GIVEN THE COLD START, CHANCES ARE THAT THE MAX TEMPS
WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THAN USUAL. GIVEN FULL
SUN AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND, WE WENT FULL ADIABATIC
WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO END OF THE AFTERNOON SOUNDING
SUGGESTED MAX TEMPS.

THE WEAKER OF THE NEXT TWO SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH OUR AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, BUT THE
PREDICTED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FGEN FORCING ARE MORE MUTED. THE JET IS
NOT IN A BAD POSITION. GIVEN THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE INITIAL
AIR MASS, MODELS ARE NOT PREDICTING MUCH PCPN. BECAUSE OF THE DPVA
AND THE MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, PCPN SHOULD BE FALLING FROM A
MID CLOUD DECK. NOT SURE IF IT WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND, BUT FOR
NOW WE WENT HIGHER THAN STAT GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE FORCING. WHILE
A LLJ WILL BE WARMING THE SUB CLOUD LAYER AND MIGHT BE ABLE TO OFFSET
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS, SNOW AS A PTYPE IS A POSSIBILITY IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. BECAUSE QPF AMOUNTS ARE LOW, ANY ACCUMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND RISE TOWARD MORNING.

USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE WEAK SYSTEMS, ANY PCPN OCCURS IN THE WAA
PHASE WITH LITTLE IF ANY WITH THE CFP ITSELF. MODELS ARE PRETTY CLOSE
ON THAT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE LAGGING STRONGER
CAA, THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD MORE THAN COMPENSATE FOR COOLING ALOFT.
A STAT GUIDANCE COMBO LOOKS DECENT FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. IT WILL
BECOME WINDIER WIND PEAK GUSTS LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 20 TO 30 MPH.

THE RIDGING FROM THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. BUT WE MAY REMAIN IN A BIT OF A GRADIENT AND
DID NOT BOTTOM MIN TEMPERATURES.

AT LEAST ON PAPER TODAY, THE NEXT ALBERTA TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOOKS MORE ROBUST. A MUCH BETTER PREDICTED COUPLET OF MID LEVEL FGEN
AND QVEC FORCING IN OUR AREA. THIS CAN BE SEEN WITH IN THE QPF
FIELD BY ITSELF. THERE ARE TRACK DIFFERENCES WITH DIFFERENCES
IN OPINION AS TO THE GREATER IMPACT. FOR NOW WE HAVE COMPROMISED
BETWEEN THE DATASETS, THUS ONSET OF UPPED PCPN CHANCES IS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL GET WARMED ON TUESDAY, IT IS STILL COLD ALOFT AND A
CHANGE TO SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH WOULD
BE THE LOGICAL OUTCOME FOR SUCH A SCENARIO. THIS ONE COULD BE
SNOWIER. BECAUSE OF DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK AND THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING, THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME BIG ERRORS WITH MAX TEMPS ON TUE. WE ARE TOWARD THE
HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM.

WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MEANS LITTLE IF ANY
DROP IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WE SHIED AWAY
FROM THE FASTER GFS CFP TIMING. THUS OUR MAX TEMPS THURSDAY ARE HIGHER
THAN ITS STAT GUIDANCE. WE ALSO PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF SHOWER CHANCES
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF`S TIMING AND PERSISTED IT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING - TONIGHT...VFR. BROKEN DECK AROUND 5KFT. WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY OCCUR. NOT
CONFIDENT ON DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACTS SO WE WILL NOT CARRY A TEMPO
AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCES MAY BE SOUTH AND WEST OF ILG. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW-20 KTS RANGE.

SUNDAY...VFR. CEILINGS LIFT A BIT AND SKIES BEGIN TO
SCATTER/CLEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER, BETTER, SURGE OF COLD AIR
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS THEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
PRODUCED. BY MID- SUNDAY MORNING THE GUSTS BEGIN TO WANE AND WINDS
SLACKEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SCATTERED RAIN, HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW, SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR LLWS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS. NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD
GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW AT HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR OR BECOMING VFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE CONTINUE WITH THE SCA THROUGH MID-SUNDAY AS
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25
KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS, AND WITH A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COLDER AIR TONIGHT, WE COULD GUSTS CLIMB UPWARDS OF 30
KNOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. WE LOSE THE GUSTS RATHER QUICKLY AND WITH THE
OFFSHORE WINDS THE SEAS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP AS WELL. WINDS BEGIN TO
VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTWHEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE INCREASING SW FLOW PRECEDING THE NEXT CFP. WHILE
AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING MONDAY, MIXING NEAR COASTAL AREAS
COULD KEEP SCA CONDITIONS PERSISTING EVEN AFTER THE CFP.

MONDAY NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS OUTLOOKED TO RETURN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE OUTLOOKED. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT WITH A CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH OR NEAR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR A STRONGER OVERALL LOW THAT MIGHT INCREASE
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/GIGI
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/HEAVENER




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281837
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
237 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SINK SOUTHEAST
AND REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NEAR OR THROUGH THE AREA
LATE ON TUESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO REACH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY MORNING AND APPROACH OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REGIONAL RADAR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE DELMARVA
HAVE ALL BUT WEAKENED AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING CLOSE
TO 40F, ITS DOUBTFUL ANYTHING IS ACTUALLY STICKING ANYMORE. THAT
BEING SAID, THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STILL IS PIVOTING THROUGH THE
REGION AS WE SPEAK. A BIT MORE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PRESENT
COINCIDING WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT DRIFTING THROUGH SO WE COULD
STILL SEE WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THE BETTER AREAS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
DELMARVA AND PARTS OF THE PHILLY METRO AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE,
CLOSER TO THE NJ COAST, THAT A WEAK TROUGH-LIKE FEATURE TRIES TO
SPARK A FEW BETTER ORGANIZED SHOWERS. THE RGEM IS THE MORE ROBUST
WITH THIS FEATURE BUT SOME OF THE SREF CORE MEMBERS SHOW THIS AS
WELL. NOT ENTIRELY SURE, IF IT FORMS, IT WOULD HAVE MUCH LAND
BASED IMPACTS, SO WE CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS FROM PHILLY SOUTHWARD.

THE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AROUND MOST OF THE NIGHT AND WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS WE COULD SEE GUSTS
INCREASE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THEY WERE DURING THE DAY. NONE-THE-
LESS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP US WELL
MIXED SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AS
THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE. WENT WITH A STRAIGHT BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS
TONIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE TO PROVIDE A RATHER
TRANQUIL DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF SUBSIDENCE TAKING PLACE BUT THIS WILL
ALSO LIMIT THE HEIGHTS TO WHICH WE CAN MIX. THE AIRMASS ALOFT STARTS
TO MODERATE LATER IN THE DAY AND AS THE WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN ON
SATURDAY. WE EDGED CLOSER TO THE WARMER MAVMOS FOR HIGHS TOMORROW
THOUGH IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WITH ANY DOWNSLOPING ADDITION WE
COULD TACK ON ANOTHER DEGREE...EXPECTING MID TO UPPER-40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM WITH A COUPLE OF PCPN SHOTS POSSIBLE. THE
WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKED BETTER THAN THE GFS, BOTH
MODELS WERE ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND 925MB WITH ANY ERRORS
ON THE COLD SIDE BY ABOUT 1C. THE DP/DT WITH THE MODELS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS SHOWING A DEEPER EAST COAST TROF. BASED
ON THIS MOVING FORWARD WE WERE SLOWER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
EVENTS.

AN AIR MASS MODIFICATION WITH DECREASING WINDS IS PREDICTED FOR
SUNDAY. GIVEN THE COLD START, CHANCES ARE THAT THE MAX TEMPS
WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THAN USUAL. GIVEN FULL
SUN AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND, WE WENT FULL ADIABATIC
WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO END OF THE AFTERNOON SOUNDING
SUGGESTED MAX TEMPS.

THE WEAKER OF THE NEXT TWO SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH OUR AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, BUT THE
PREDICTED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FGEN FORCING ARE MORE MUTED. THE JET IS
NOT IN A BAD POSITION. GIVEN THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE INITIAL
AIR MASS, MODELS ARE NOT PREDICTING MUCH PCPN. BECAUSE OF THE DPVA
AND THE MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, PCPN SHOULD BE FALLING FROM A
MID CLOUD DECK. NOT SURE IF IT WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND, BUT FOR
NOW WE WENT HIGHER THAN STAT GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE FORCING. WHILE
A LLJ WILL BE WARMING THE SUB CLOUD LAYER AND MIGHT BE ABLE TO OFFSET
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS, SNOW AS A PTYPE IS A POSSIBILITY IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. BECAUSE QPF AMOUNTS ARE LOW, ANY ACCUMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND RISE TOWARD MORNING.

USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE WEAK SYSTEMS, ANY PCPN OCCURS IN THE WAA
PHASE WITH LITTLE IF ANY WITH THE CFP ITSELF. MODELS ARE PRETTY CLOSE
ON THAT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE LAGGING STRONGER
CAA, THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD MORE THAN COMPENSATE FOR COOLING ALOFT.
A STAT GUIDANCE COMBO LOOKS DECENT FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. IT WILL
BECOME WINDIER WIND PEAK GUSTS LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 20 TO 30 MPH.

THE RIDGING FROM THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. BUT WE MAY REMAIN IN A BIT OF A GRADIENT AND
DID NOT BOTTOM MIN TEMPERATURES.

AT LEAST ON PAPER TODAY, THE NEXT ALBERTA TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOOKS MORE ROBUST. A MUCH BETTER PREDICTED COUPLET OF MID LEVEL FGEN
AND QVEC FORCING IN OUR AREA. THIS CAN BE SEEN WITH IN THE QPF
FIELD BY ITSELF. THERE ARE TRACK DIFFERENCES WITH DIFFERENCES
IN OPINION AS TO THE GREATER IMPACT. FOR NOW WE HAVE COMPROMISED
BETWEEN THE DATASETS, THUS ONSET OF UPPED PCPN CHANCES IS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL GET WARMED ON TUESDAY, IT IS STILL COLD ALOFT AND A
CHANGE TO SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH WOULD
BE THE LOGICAL OUTCOME FOR SUCH A SCENARIO. THIS ONE COULD BE
SNOWIER. BECAUSE OF DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK AND THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING, THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME BIG ERRORS WITH MAX TEMPS ON TUE. WE ARE TOWARD THE
HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM.

WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MEANS LITTLE IF ANY
DROP IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WE SHIED AWAY
FROM THE FASTER GFS CFP TIMING. THUS OUR MAX TEMPS THURSDAY ARE HIGHER
THAN ITS STAT GUIDANCE. WE ALSO PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF SHOWER CHANCES
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF`S TIMING AND PERSISTED IT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING - TONIGHT...VFR. BROKEN DECK AROUND 5KFT. WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY OCCUR. NOT
CONFIDENT ON DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACTS SO WE WILL NOT CARRY A TEMPO
AT THIS TIME. BEST CHANCES MAY BE SOUTH AND WEST OF ILG. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW-20 KTS RANGE.

SUNDAY...VFR. CEILINGS LIFT A BIT AND SKIES BEGIN TO
SCATTER/CLEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER, BETTER, SURGE OF COLD AIR
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS THEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
PRODUCED. BY MID- SUNDAY MORNING THE GUSTS BEGIN TO WANE AND WINDS
SLACKEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SCATTERED RAIN, HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW, SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR LLWS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS. NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD
GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW AT HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR OR BECOMING VFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WE CONTINUE WITH THE SCA THROUGH MID-SUNDAY AS
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25
KNOTS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS, AND WITH A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COLDER AIR TONIGHT, WE COULD GUSTS CLIMB UPWARDS OF 30
KNOTS TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...SUB-SCA EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN OVERHEAD. WE LOSE THE GUSTS RATHER QUICKLY AND WITH THE
OFFSHORE WINDS THE SEAS SHOULD QUICKLY DROP AS WELL. WINDS BEGIN TO
VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTWHEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE IN THE INCREASING SW FLOW PRECEDING THE NEXT CFP. WHILE
AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING MONDAY, MIXING NEAR COASTAL AREAS
COULD KEEP SCA CONDITIONS PERSISTING EVEN AFTER THE CFP.

MONDAY NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS OUTLOOKED TO RETURN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE OUTLOOKED. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT WITH A CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH OR NEAR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR A STRONGER OVERALL LOW THAT MIGHT INCREASE
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/GIGI
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/HEAVENER





000
FXUS61 KPHI 281356
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
956 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SINK SOUTHEAST
AND REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NEAR OR THROUGH THE AREA
LATE ON TUESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO REACH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY MORNING AND APPROACH OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO THE LIKELY-
CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS REGIONAL TRAFFIC
CAMERAS SHOW MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES. THERE IS
STILL SOME DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR THE FALLING SNOW HAS TO
OVERCOME AS THE RADAR IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF SUBLIMINATION BUT
AS WAS SAID ABOVE, THE GRASSY/MULCHY AREAS ARE SEEING MINOR
DUSTING/ACCUMULATIONS. THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON SURFACE AND
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME RAIN
MIXING IN FOR A TIME.

OTHERWISE, THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
FEATURE WELL. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WELL TO OUR
EAST.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON, A
RATHER COLD AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS STRONG CAA IS PRESENT. THE COMBINATION OF THIS CAA AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEPTH
OF THE MIXING LAYER INCREASES. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ABOUT
30 MPH WIND GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.

SOME ENERGY SLIDING OFFSHORE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS MAINTAINING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION VERY
JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE, SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE JUST TO OUR WEST. THESE
APPEAR TO BE TIED TO HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ARRIVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. WE CARRIED SOME FLURRIES FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE DELMARVA ZONES. THE ARRIVAL OF A
STRONG SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AIRMASS WILL
BE UNDERGOING A DRYING TREND, THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FORECAST TO
BE PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ALOFT,
SOME BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND WITH SOME LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVE
AND SURFACE TROUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOME SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. SOME
OF THIS MAY INITIALLY NOT REACH THE GROUND AS THE LOWEST LEVELS
DRY SOME MORE. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY AS ADDITIONAL DRYING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE ABOVE
700 MB, THEREFORE A CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION LOOKS LOW. THERE ARE
SOME HINTS IN SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THOUGH THAT
SOME NARROW BANDING OR WRAPAROUND MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVEN DOWN INTO
THE DELMARVA. OVERALL THOUGH, ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE.

AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A NAM/GFS MOS AND ECMWF BLEND
OVERALL WITH SOME TWEAKS. WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND THIS COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG CAA WILL RESULT IN A COLD LATE MARCH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS OUR AREA
DURING TONIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY STRETCHED
OUT WITHIN IT AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO FURTHER DRYING. THE TAILEND OF THIS THOUGH MAY
RESULT IN A FEW NARROW STREAMERS OF SNOW SHOWERS ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THIS OCCURS IF IT WERE TO
HAPPEN. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES MAY GET A NARROW BAND OR TWO OF SNOW SHOWERS TO START
THE EVENING, AS STRONGER PVA MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL, THIS WOULD BE
RATHER LOCALIZED AND GIVEN THE DRYING NOT SURE IF IT ACTUALLY
MATERIALIZES INTO MUCH.

OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY HOWEVER ITS CENTER REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THIS ALLOWS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE MIXING SHOULD
DECREASE SOME THROUGH THE EVENING, A BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE MOST GUSTINESS OCCURRING IN
THE EVENING.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, A VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S AND TEENS. THE WIND MAY HOLD
THESE UP SOME, HOWEVER IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN RATHER COLD WIND
CHILL VALUES. OVERALL, WE USED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM WITH A COUPLE OF PCPN SHOTS POSSIBLE. THE
WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKED BETTER THAN THE GFS, BOTH
MODELS WERE ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND 925MB WITH ANY ERRORS
ON THE COLD SIDE BY ABOUT 1C. THE DP/DT WITH THE MODELS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS SHOWING A DEEPER EAST COAST TROF. BASED
ON THIS MOVING FORWARD WE WERE SLOWER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
EVENTS.

AN AIR MASS MODIFICATION WITH DECREASING WINDS IS PREDICTED FOR
SUNDAY. GIVEN THE COLD START, CHANCES ARE THAT THE MAX TEMPS
WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THAN USUAL. GIVEN FULL
SUN AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND, WE WENT FULL ADIABATIC
WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO END OF THE AFTERNOON SOUNDING
SUGGESTED MAX TEMPS.

THE WEAKER OF THE NEXT TWO SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH OUR AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, BUT THE
PREDICTED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FGEN FORCING ARE MORE MUTED. THE JET IS
NOT IN A BAD POSITION. GIVEN THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE INITIAL
AIR MASS, MODELS ARE NOT PREDICTING MUCH PCPN. BECAUSE OF THE DPVA
AND THE MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, PCPN SHOULD BE FALLING FROM A
MID CLOUD DECK. NOT SURE IF IT WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND, BUT FOR
NOW WE WENT HIGHER THAN STAT GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE FORCING. WHILE
A LLJ WILL BE WARMING THE SUB CLOUD LAYER AND MIGHT BE ABLE TO OFFSET
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS, SNOW AS A PTYPE IS A POSSIBILITY IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. BECAUSE QPF AMOUNTS ARE LOW, ANY ACCUMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND RISE TOWARD MORNING.

USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE WEAK SYSTEMS, ANY PCPN OCCURS IN THE WAA
PHASE WITH LITTLE IF ANY WITH THE CFP ITSELF. MODELS ARE PRETTY CLOSE
ON THAT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE LAGGING STRONGER
CAA, THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD MORE THAN COMPENSATE FOR COOLING ALOFT.
A STAT GUIDANCE COMBO LOOKS DECENT FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. IT WILL
BECOME WINDIER WIND PEAK GUSTS LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 20 TO 30 MPH.

THE RIDGING FROM THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. BUT WE MAY REMAIN IN A BIT OF A GRADIENT AND
DID NOT BOTTOM MIN TEMPERATURES.

AT LEAST ON PAPER TODAY, THE NEXT ALBERTA TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOOKS MORE ROBUST. A MUCH BETTER PREDICTED COUPLET OF MID LEVEL FGEN
AND QVEC FORCING IN OUR AREA. THIS CAN BE SEEN WITH IN THE QPF
FIELD BY ITSELF. THERE ARE TRACK DIFFERENCES WITH DIFFERENCES
IN OPINION AS TO THE GREATER IMPACT. FOR NOW WE HAVE COMPROMISED
BETWEEN THE DATASETS, THUS ONSET OF UPPED PCPN CHANCES IS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL GET WARMED ON TUESDAY, IT IS STILL COLD ALOFT AND A
CHANGE TO SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH WOULD
BE THE LOGICAL OUTCOME FOR SUCH A SCENARIO. THIS ONE COULD BE
SNOWIER. BECAUSE OF DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK AND THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING, THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME BIG ERRORS WITH MAX TEMPS ON TUE. WE ARE TOWARD THE
HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM.

WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MEANS LITTLE IF ANY
DROP IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WE SHIED AWAY
FROM THE FASTER GFS CFP TIMING. THUS OUR MAX TEMPS THURSDAY ARE HIGHER
THAN ITS STAT GUIDANCE. WE ALSO PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF SHOWER CHANCES
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF`S TIMING AND PERSISTED IT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH CEILINGS MAINLY AROUND 5000 FEET. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY. A FEW SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ORGANIZATION A MENTION WAS NOT INCLUDED
AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS GENERALLY SCATTERING OUT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE DECREASING.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SCATTERED RAIN, HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW, SHOWERS. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR LLWS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS. NORTHWEST WINDS
ON MONDAY SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW AT HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR OR BECOMING VFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CAA WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MIXING DEPTH WILL INCREASE INTO
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
WELL. THE UPTICK IN THE WINDS WILL ALLOW THE SEAS TO BUILD SOME ONCE
AGAIN, ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE HIGHER SETS WILL BE
NEAR THE MOUTH OF DELAWARE BAY AND ALSO FARTHER OFFSHORE. AS A
RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFTS ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY
THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE INCREASING SW FLOW PRECEDING THE NEXT
CFP. WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING MONDAY, MIXING NEAR
COASTAL AREAS COULD KEEP SCA CONDITIONS PERSISTING EVEN AFTER
THE CFP.

MONDAY NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS OUTLOOKED TO RETURN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE OUTLOOKED. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT WITH A CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH OR NEAR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR A STRONGER OVERALL LOW THAT MIGHT INCREASE
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281356
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
956 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SINK SOUTHEAST
AND REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NEAR OR THROUGH THE AREA
LATE ON TUESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO REACH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY MORNING AND APPROACH OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO THE LIKELY-
CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS REGIONAL TRAFFIC
CAMERAS SHOW MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES. THERE IS
STILL SOME DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR THE FALLING SNOW HAS TO
OVERCOME AS THE RADAR IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF SUBLIMINATION BUT
AS WAS SAID ABOVE, THE GRASSY/MULCHY AREAS ARE SEEING MINOR
DUSTING/ACCUMULATIONS. THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON SURFACE AND
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME RAIN
MIXING IN FOR A TIME.

OTHERWISE, THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
FEATURE WELL. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WELL TO OUR
EAST.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON, A
RATHER COLD AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS STRONG CAA IS PRESENT. THE COMBINATION OF THIS CAA AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEPTH
OF THE MIXING LAYER INCREASES. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ABOUT
30 MPH WIND GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.

SOME ENERGY SLIDING OFFSHORE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS MAINTAINING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION VERY
JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE, SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE JUST TO OUR WEST. THESE
APPEAR TO BE TIED TO HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ARRIVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. WE CARRIED SOME FLURRIES FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE DELMARVA ZONES. THE ARRIVAL OF A
STRONG SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AIRMASS WILL
BE UNDERGOING A DRYING TREND, THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FORECAST TO
BE PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ALOFT,
SOME BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND WITH SOME LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVE
AND SURFACE TROUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOME SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. SOME
OF THIS MAY INITIALLY NOT REACH THE GROUND AS THE LOWEST LEVELS
DRY SOME MORE. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY AS ADDITIONAL DRYING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE ABOVE
700 MB, THEREFORE A CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION LOOKS LOW. THERE ARE
SOME HINTS IN SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THOUGH THAT
SOME NARROW BANDING OR WRAPAROUND MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVEN DOWN INTO
THE DELMARVA. OVERALL THOUGH, ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE.

AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A NAM/GFS MOS AND ECMWF BLEND
OVERALL WITH SOME TWEAKS. WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND THIS COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG CAA WILL RESULT IN A COLD LATE MARCH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS OUR AREA
DURING TONIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY STRETCHED
OUT WITHIN IT AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO FURTHER DRYING. THE TAILEND OF THIS THOUGH MAY
RESULT IN A FEW NARROW STREAMERS OF SNOW SHOWERS ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THIS OCCURS IF IT WERE TO
HAPPEN. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES MAY GET A NARROW BAND OR TWO OF SNOW SHOWERS TO START
THE EVENING, AS STRONGER PVA MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL, THIS WOULD BE
RATHER LOCALIZED AND GIVEN THE DRYING NOT SURE IF IT ACTUALLY
MATERIALIZES INTO MUCH.

OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY HOWEVER ITS CENTER REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THIS ALLOWS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE MIXING SHOULD
DECREASE SOME THROUGH THE EVENING, A BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE MOST GUSTINESS OCCURRING IN
THE EVENING.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, A VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S AND TEENS. THE WIND MAY HOLD
THESE UP SOME, HOWEVER IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN RATHER COLD WIND
CHILL VALUES. OVERALL, WE USED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM WITH A COUPLE OF PCPN SHOTS POSSIBLE. THE
WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKED BETTER THAN THE GFS, BOTH
MODELS WERE ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND 925MB WITH ANY ERRORS
ON THE COLD SIDE BY ABOUT 1C. THE DP/DT WITH THE MODELS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS SHOWING A DEEPER EAST COAST TROF. BASED
ON THIS MOVING FORWARD WE WERE SLOWER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
EVENTS.

AN AIR MASS MODIFICATION WITH DECREASING WINDS IS PREDICTED FOR
SUNDAY. GIVEN THE COLD START, CHANCES ARE THAT THE MAX TEMPS
WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THAN USUAL. GIVEN FULL
SUN AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND, WE WENT FULL ADIABATIC
WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO END OF THE AFTERNOON SOUNDING
SUGGESTED MAX TEMPS.

THE WEAKER OF THE NEXT TWO SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH OUR AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, BUT THE
PREDICTED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FGEN FORCING ARE MORE MUTED. THE JET IS
NOT IN A BAD POSITION. GIVEN THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE INITIAL
AIR MASS, MODELS ARE NOT PREDICTING MUCH PCPN. BECAUSE OF THE DPVA
AND THE MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, PCPN SHOULD BE FALLING FROM A
MID CLOUD DECK. NOT SURE IF IT WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND, BUT FOR
NOW WE WENT HIGHER THAN STAT GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE FORCING. WHILE
A LLJ WILL BE WARMING THE SUB CLOUD LAYER AND MIGHT BE ABLE TO OFFSET
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS, SNOW AS A PTYPE IS A POSSIBILITY IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. BECAUSE QPF AMOUNTS ARE LOW, ANY ACCUMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND RISE TOWARD MORNING.

USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE WEAK SYSTEMS, ANY PCPN OCCURS IN THE WAA
PHASE WITH LITTLE IF ANY WITH THE CFP ITSELF. MODELS ARE PRETTY CLOSE
ON THAT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE LAGGING STRONGER
CAA, THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD MORE THAN COMPENSATE FOR COOLING ALOFT.
A STAT GUIDANCE COMBO LOOKS DECENT FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. IT WILL
BECOME WINDIER WIND PEAK GUSTS LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 20 TO 30 MPH.

THE RIDGING FROM THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. BUT WE MAY REMAIN IN A BIT OF A GRADIENT AND
DID NOT BOTTOM MIN TEMPERATURES.

AT LEAST ON PAPER TODAY, THE NEXT ALBERTA TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOOKS MORE ROBUST. A MUCH BETTER PREDICTED COUPLET OF MID LEVEL FGEN
AND QVEC FORCING IN OUR AREA. THIS CAN BE SEEN WITH IN THE QPF
FIELD BY ITSELF. THERE ARE TRACK DIFFERENCES WITH DIFFERENCES
IN OPINION AS TO THE GREATER IMPACT. FOR NOW WE HAVE COMPROMISED
BETWEEN THE DATASETS, THUS ONSET OF UPPED PCPN CHANCES IS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL GET WARMED ON TUESDAY, IT IS STILL COLD ALOFT AND A
CHANGE TO SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH WOULD
BE THE LOGICAL OUTCOME FOR SUCH A SCENARIO. THIS ONE COULD BE
SNOWIER. BECAUSE OF DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK AND THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING, THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME BIG ERRORS WITH MAX TEMPS ON TUE. WE ARE TOWARD THE
HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM.

WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MEANS LITTLE IF ANY
DROP IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WE SHIED AWAY
FROM THE FASTER GFS CFP TIMING. THUS OUR MAX TEMPS THURSDAY ARE HIGHER
THAN ITS STAT GUIDANCE. WE ALSO PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF SHOWER CHANCES
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF`S TIMING AND PERSISTED IT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH CEILINGS MAINLY AROUND 5000 FEET. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY. A FEW SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ORGANIZATION A MENTION WAS NOT INCLUDED
AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS GENERALLY SCATTERING OUT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE DECREASING.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SCATTERED RAIN, HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW, SHOWERS. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR LLWS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS. NORTHWEST WINDS
ON MONDAY SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW AT HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR OR BECOMING VFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CAA WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MIXING DEPTH WILL INCREASE INTO
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
WELL. THE UPTICK IN THE WINDS WILL ALLOW THE SEAS TO BUILD SOME ONCE
AGAIN, ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE HIGHER SETS WILL BE
NEAR THE MOUTH OF DELAWARE BAY AND ALSO FARTHER OFFSHORE. AS A
RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFTS ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY
THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE INCREASING SW FLOW PRECEDING THE NEXT
CFP. WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING MONDAY, MIXING NEAR
COASTAL AREAS COULD KEEP SCA CONDITIONS PERSISTING EVEN AFTER
THE CFP.

MONDAY NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS OUTLOOKED TO RETURN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE OUTLOOKED. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT WITH A CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH OR NEAR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR A STRONGER OVERALL LOW THAT MIGHT INCREASE
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 281356
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
956 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SINK SOUTHEAST
AND REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NEAR OR THROUGH THE AREA
LATE ON TUESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO REACH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY MORNING AND APPROACH OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO THE LIKELY-
CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS REGIONAL TRAFFIC
CAMERAS SHOW MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES. THERE IS
STILL SOME DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR THE FALLING SNOW HAS TO
OVERCOME AS THE RADAR IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF SUBLIMINATION BUT
AS WAS SAID ABOVE, THE GRASSY/MULCHY AREAS ARE SEEING MINOR
DUSTING/ACCUMULATIONS. THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON SURFACE AND
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME RAIN
MIXING IN FOR A TIME.

OTHERWISE, THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
FEATURE WELL. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WELL TO OUR
EAST.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON, A
RATHER COLD AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS STRONG CAA IS PRESENT. THE COMBINATION OF THIS CAA AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEPTH
OF THE MIXING LAYER INCREASES. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ABOUT
30 MPH WIND GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.

SOME ENERGY SLIDING OFFSHORE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS MAINTAINING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION VERY
JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE, SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE JUST TO OUR WEST. THESE
APPEAR TO BE TIED TO HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ARRIVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. WE CARRIED SOME FLURRIES FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE DELMARVA ZONES. THE ARRIVAL OF A
STRONG SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AIRMASS WILL
BE UNDERGOING A DRYING TREND, THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FORECAST TO
BE PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ALOFT,
SOME BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND WITH SOME LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVE
AND SURFACE TROUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOME SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. SOME
OF THIS MAY INITIALLY NOT REACH THE GROUND AS THE LOWEST LEVELS
DRY SOME MORE. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY AS ADDITIONAL DRYING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE ABOVE
700 MB, THEREFORE A CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION LOOKS LOW. THERE ARE
SOME HINTS IN SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THOUGH THAT
SOME NARROW BANDING OR WRAPAROUND MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVEN DOWN INTO
THE DELMARVA. OVERALL THOUGH, ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE.

AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A NAM/GFS MOS AND ECMWF BLEND
OVERALL WITH SOME TWEAKS. WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND THIS COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG CAA WILL RESULT IN A COLD LATE MARCH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS OUR AREA
DURING TONIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY STRETCHED
OUT WITHIN IT AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO FURTHER DRYING. THE TAILEND OF THIS THOUGH MAY
RESULT IN A FEW NARROW STREAMERS OF SNOW SHOWERS ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THIS OCCURS IF IT WERE TO
HAPPEN. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES MAY GET A NARROW BAND OR TWO OF SNOW SHOWERS TO START
THE EVENING, AS STRONGER PVA MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL, THIS WOULD BE
RATHER LOCALIZED AND GIVEN THE DRYING NOT SURE IF IT ACTUALLY
MATERIALIZES INTO MUCH.

OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY HOWEVER ITS CENTER REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THIS ALLOWS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE MIXING SHOULD
DECREASE SOME THROUGH THE EVENING, A BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE MOST GUSTINESS OCCURRING IN
THE EVENING.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, A VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S AND TEENS. THE WIND MAY HOLD
THESE UP SOME, HOWEVER IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN RATHER COLD WIND
CHILL VALUES. OVERALL, WE USED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM WITH A COUPLE OF PCPN SHOTS POSSIBLE. THE
WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKED BETTER THAN THE GFS, BOTH
MODELS WERE ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND 925MB WITH ANY ERRORS
ON THE COLD SIDE BY ABOUT 1C. THE DP/DT WITH THE MODELS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS SHOWING A DEEPER EAST COAST TROF. BASED
ON THIS MOVING FORWARD WE WERE SLOWER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
EVENTS.

AN AIR MASS MODIFICATION WITH DECREASING WINDS IS PREDICTED FOR
SUNDAY. GIVEN THE COLD START, CHANCES ARE THAT THE MAX TEMPS
WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THAN USUAL. GIVEN FULL
SUN AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND, WE WENT FULL ADIABATIC
WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO END OF THE AFTERNOON SOUNDING
SUGGESTED MAX TEMPS.

THE WEAKER OF THE NEXT TWO SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH OUR AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, BUT THE
PREDICTED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FGEN FORCING ARE MORE MUTED. THE JET IS
NOT IN A BAD POSITION. GIVEN THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE INITIAL
AIR MASS, MODELS ARE NOT PREDICTING MUCH PCPN. BECAUSE OF THE DPVA
AND THE MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, PCPN SHOULD BE FALLING FROM A
MID CLOUD DECK. NOT SURE IF IT WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND, BUT FOR
NOW WE WENT HIGHER THAN STAT GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE FORCING. WHILE
A LLJ WILL BE WARMING THE SUB CLOUD LAYER AND MIGHT BE ABLE TO OFFSET
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS, SNOW AS A PTYPE IS A POSSIBILITY IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. BECAUSE QPF AMOUNTS ARE LOW, ANY ACCUMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND RISE TOWARD MORNING.

USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE WEAK SYSTEMS, ANY PCPN OCCURS IN THE WAA
PHASE WITH LITTLE IF ANY WITH THE CFP ITSELF. MODELS ARE PRETTY CLOSE
ON THAT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE LAGGING STRONGER
CAA, THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD MORE THAN COMPENSATE FOR COOLING ALOFT.
A STAT GUIDANCE COMBO LOOKS DECENT FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. IT WILL
BECOME WINDIER WIND PEAK GUSTS LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 20 TO 30 MPH.

THE RIDGING FROM THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. BUT WE MAY REMAIN IN A BIT OF A GRADIENT AND
DID NOT BOTTOM MIN TEMPERATURES.

AT LEAST ON PAPER TODAY, THE NEXT ALBERTA TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOOKS MORE ROBUST. A MUCH BETTER PREDICTED COUPLET OF MID LEVEL FGEN
AND QVEC FORCING IN OUR AREA. THIS CAN BE SEEN WITH IN THE QPF
FIELD BY ITSELF. THERE ARE TRACK DIFFERENCES WITH DIFFERENCES
IN OPINION AS TO THE GREATER IMPACT. FOR NOW WE HAVE COMPROMISED
BETWEEN THE DATASETS, THUS ONSET OF UPPED PCPN CHANCES IS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL GET WARMED ON TUESDAY, IT IS STILL COLD ALOFT AND A
CHANGE TO SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH WOULD
BE THE LOGICAL OUTCOME FOR SUCH A SCENARIO. THIS ONE COULD BE
SNOWIER. BECAUSE OF DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK AND THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING, THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME BIG ERRORS WITH MAX TEMPS ON TUE. WE ARE TOWARD THE
HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM.

WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MEANS LITTLE IF ANY
DROP IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WE SHIED AWAY
FROM THE FASTER GFS CFP TIMING. THUS OUR MAX TEMPS THURSDAY ARE HIGHER
THAN ITS STAT GUIDANCE. WE ALSO PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF SHOWER CHANCES
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF`S TIMING AND PERSISTED IT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH CEILINGS MAINLY AROUND 5000 FEET. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY. A FEW SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ORGANIZATION A MENTION WAS NOT INCLUDED
AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS GENERALLY SCATTERING OUT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE DECREASING.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SCATTERED RAIN, HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW, SHOWERS. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR LLWS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS. NORTHWEST WINDS
ON MONDAY SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW AT HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR OR BECOMING VFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CAA WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MIXING DEPTH WILL INCREASE INTO
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
WELL. THE UPTICK IN THE WINDS WILL ALLOW THE SEAS TO BUILD SOME ONCE
AGAIN, ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE HIGHER SETS WILL BE
NEAR THE MOUTH OF DELAWARE BAY AND ALSO FARTHER OFFSHORE. AS A
RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFTS ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY
THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE INCREASING SW FLOW PRECEDING THE NEXT
CFP. WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING MONDAY, MIXING NEAR
COASTAL AREAS COULD KEEP SCA CONDITIONS PERSISTING EVEN AFTER
THE CFP.

MONDAY NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS OUTLOOKED TO RETURN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE OUTLOOKED. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT WITH A CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH OR NEAR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR A STRONGER OVERALL LOW THAT MIGHT INCREASE
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281356
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
956 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SINK SOUTHEAST
AND REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NEAR OR THROUGH THE AREA
LATE ON TUESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO REACH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY MORNING AND APPROACH OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE DELMARVA INTO THE LIKELY-
CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS REGIONAL TRAFFIC
CAMERAS SHOW MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES. THERE IS
STILL SOME DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR THE FALLING SNOW HAS TO
OVERCOME AS THE RADAR IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF SUBLIMINATION BUT
AS WAS SAID ABOVE, THE GRASSY/MULCHY AREAS ARE SEEING MINOR
DUSTING/ACCUMULATIONS. THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON SURFACE AND
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATION THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME RAIN
MIXING IN FOR A TIME.

OTHERWISE, THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS
FEATURE WELL. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE
DAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WELL TO OUR
EAST.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON, A
RATHER COLD AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS STRONG CAA IS PRESENT. THE COMBINATION OF THIS CAA AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEPTH
OF THE MIXING LAYER INCREASES. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ABOUT
30 MPH WIND GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.

SOME ENERGY SLIDING OFFSHORE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS MAINTAINING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION VERY
JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE, SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE JUST TO OUR WEST. THESE
APPEAR TO BE TIED TO HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ARRIVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. WE CARRIED SOME FLURRIES FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING OUTSIDE OF THE DELMARVA ZONES. THE ARRIVAL OF A
STRONG SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AIRMASS WILL
BE UNDERGOING A DRYING TREND, THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FORECAST TO
BE PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ALOFT,
SOME BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND WITH SOME LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVE
AND SURFACE TROUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOME SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. SOME
OF THIS MAY INITIALLY NOT REACH THE GROUND AS THE LOWEST LEVELS
DRY SOME MORE. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY AS ADDITIONAL DRYING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE ABOVE
700 MB, THEREFORE A CONVECTIVE CONTRIBUTION LOOKS LOW. THERE ARE
SOME HINTS IN SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THOUGH THAT
SOME NARROW BANDING OR WRAPAROUND MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVEN DOWN INTO
THE DELMARVA. OVERALL THOUGH, ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE.

AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A NAM/GFS MOS AND ECMWF BLEND
OVERALL WITH SOME TWEAKS. WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND THIS COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG CAA WILL RESULT IN A COLD LATE MARCH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS OUR AREA
DURING TONIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY STRETCHED
OUT WITHIN IT AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO FURTHER DRYING. THE TAILEND OF THIS THOUGH MAY
RESULT IN A FEW NARROW STREAMERS OF SNOW SHOWERS ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THIS OCCURS IF IT WERE TO
HAPPEN. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES MAY GET A NARROW BAND OR TWO OF SNOW SHOWERS TO START
THE EVENING, AS STRONGER PVA MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL, THIS WOULD BE
RATHER LOCALIZED AND GIVEN THE DRYING NOT SURE IF IT ACTUALLY
MATERIALIZES INTO MUCH.

OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY HOWEVER ITS CENTER REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THIS ALLOWS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE MIXING SHOULD
DECREASE SOME THROUGH THE EVENING, A BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE MOST GUSTINESS OCCURRING IN
THE EVENING.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, A VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S AND TEENS. THE WIND MAY HOLD
THESE UP SOME, HOWEVER IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN RATHER COLD WIND
CHILL VALUES. OVERALL, WE USED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM WITH A COUPLE OF PCPN SHOTS POSSIBLE. THE
WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKED BETTER THAN THE GFS, BOTH
MODELS WERE ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND 925MB WITH ANY ERRORS
ON THE COLD SIDE BY ABOUT 1C. THE DP/DT WITH THE MODELS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS SHOWING A DEEPER EAST COAST TROF. BASED
ON THIS MOVING FORWARD WE WERE SLOWER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
EVENTS.

AN AIR MASS MODIFICATION WITH DECREASING WINDS IS PREDICTED FOR
SUNDAY. GIVEN THE COLD START, CHANCES ARE THAT THE MAX TEMPS
WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THAN USUAL. GIVEN FULL
SUN AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND, WE WENT FULL ADIABATIC
WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO END OF THE AFTERNOON SOUNDING
SUGGESTED MAX TEMPS.

THE WEAKER OF THE NEXT TWO SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH OUR AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, BUT THE
PREDICTED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FGEN FORCING ARE MORE MUTED. THE JET IS
NOT IN A BAD POSITION. GIVEN THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE INITIAL
AIR MASS, MODELS ARE NOT PREDICTING MUCH PCPN. BECAUSE OF THE DPVA
AND THE MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, PCPN SHOULD BE FALLING FROM A
MID CLOUD DECK. NOT SURE IF IT WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND, BUT FOR
NOW WE WENT HIGHER THAN STAT GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE FORCING. WHILE
A LLJ WILL BE WARMING THE SUB CLOUD LAYER AND MIGHT BE ABLE TO OFFSET
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS, SNOW AS A PTYPE IS A POSSIBILITY IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. BECAUSE QPF AMOUNTS ARE LOW, ANY ACCUMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND RISE TOWARD MORNING.

USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE WEAK SYSTEMS, ANY PCPN OCCURS IN THE WAA
PHASE WITH LITTLE IF ANY WITH THE CFP ITSELF. MODELS ARE PRETTY CLOSE
ON THAT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE LAGGING STRONGER
CAA, THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD MORE THAN COMPENSATE FOR COOLING ALOFT.
A STAT GUIDANCE COMBO LOOKS DECENT FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. IT WILL
BECOME WINDIER WIND PEAK GUSTS LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 20 TO 30 MPH.

THE RIDGING FROM THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. BUT WE MAY REMAIN IN A BIT OF A GRADIENT AND
DID NOT BOTTOM MIN TEMPERATURES.

AT LEAST ON PAPER TODAY, THE NEXT ALBERTA TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOOKS MORE ROBUST. A MUCH BETTER PREDICTED COUPLET OF MID LEVEL FGEN
AND QVEC FORCING IN OUR AREA. THIS CAN BE SEEN WITH IN THE QPF
FIELD BY ITSELF. THERE ARE TRACK DIFFERENCES WITH DIFFERENCES
IN OPINION AS TO THE GREATER IMPACT. FOR NOW WE HAVE COMPROMISED
BETWEEN THE DATASETS, THUS ONSET OF UPPED PCPN CHANCES IS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL GET WARMED ON TUESDAY, IT IS STILL COLD ALOFT AND A
CHANGE TO SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH WOULD
BE THE LOGICAL OUTCOME FOR SUCH A SCENARIO. THIS ONE COULD BE
SNOWIER. BECAUSE OF DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK AND THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING, THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME BIG ERRORS WITH MAX TEMPS ON TUE. WE ARE TOWARD THE
HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM.

WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MEANS LITTLE IF ANY
DROP IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WE SHIED AWAY
FROM THE FASTER GFS CFP TIMING. THUS OUR MAX TEMPS THURSDAY ARE HIGHER
THAN ITS STAT GUIDANCE. WE ALSO PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF SHOWER CHANCES
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF`S TIMING AND PERSISTED IT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH CEILINGS MAINLY AROUND 5000 FEET. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY. A FEW SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ORGANIZATION A MENTION WAS NOT INCLUDED
AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS GENERALLY SCATTERING OUT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE DECREASING.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SCATTERED RAIN, HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW, SHOWERS. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR LLWS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS. NORTHWEST WINDS
ON MONDAY SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW AT HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR OR BECOMING VFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CAA WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MIXING DEPTH WILL INCREASE INTO
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
WELL. THE UPTICK IN THE WINDS WILL ALLOW THE SEAS TO BUILD SOME ONCE
AGAIN, ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE HIGHER SETS WILL BE
NEAR THE MOUTH OF DELAWARE BAY AND ALSO FARTHER OFFSHORE. AS A
RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFTS ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY
THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE INCREASING SW FLOW PRECEDING THE NEXT
CFP. WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING MONDAY, MIXING NEAR
COASTAL AREAS COULD KEEP SCA CONDITIONS PERSISTING EVEN AFTER
THE CFP.

MONDAY NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS OUTLOOKED TO RETURN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE OUTLOOKED. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT WITH A CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH OR NEAR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR A STRONGER OVERALL LOW THAT MIGHT INCREASE
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 281044
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
644 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SINK SOUTHEAST
AND REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NEAR OR THROUGH THE AREA
LATE ON TUESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO REACH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY MORNING AND APPROACH OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE WELL. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE, LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WELL TO OUR EAST.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON, A
RATHER COLD AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS STRONG CAA IS PRESENT. THE COMBINATION OF THIS CAA AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEPTH
OF THE MIXING LAYER INCREASES. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ABOUT
30 MPH WIND GUSTS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.

SOME ENERGY SLIDING OFFSHORE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS MAINTAINING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION VERY
JUST OFF THE COAST. THIS APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE, SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE JUST TO OUR WEST. THESE
APPEAR TO BE TIED TO HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME WEAK ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ARRIVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. WE CARRIED SOME FLURRIES FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE
TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AIRMASS WILL BE UNDERGOING A DRYING TREND,
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FORECAST TO BE PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ALOFT, SOME BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND
WITH SOME LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH THERE SHOULD
BE SOME SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. SOME OF THIS MAY INITIALLY NOT REACH
THE GROUND AS THE LOWEST LEVELS DRY SOME MORE. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY AS ADDITIONAL DRYING IS
FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE ABOVE 700 MB, THEREFORE A CONVECTIVE
CONTRIBUTION LOOKS LOW. THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THOUGH THAT SOME NARROW BANDING OR WRAPAROUND
MAY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVEN DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA. OVERALL THOUGH, ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AS THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF ANYTHING
ORGANIZED IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ATTM.

AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A NAM/GFS MOS AND ECMWF BLEND
OVERALL WITH SOME TWEAKS. WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND THIS COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG CAA WILL RESULT IN A COLD LATE MARCH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS OUR AREA
DURING TONIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY STRETCHED
OUT WITHIN IT AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO FURTHER DRYING. THE TAILEND OF THIS THOUGH MAY
RESULT IN A FEW NARROW STREAMERS OF SNOW SHOWERS ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THIS OCCURS IF IT WERE TO
HAPPEN. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES MAY GET A NARROW BAND OR TWO OF SNOW SHOWERS TO START
THE EVENING, AS STRONGER PVA MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL, THIS WOULD BE
RATHER LOCALIZED AND GIVEN THE DRYING NOT SURE IF IT ACTUALLY
MATERIALIZES INTO MUCH.

OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY HOWEVER ITS CENTER REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THIS ALLOWS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE MIXING SHOULD
DECREASE SOME THROUGH THE EVENING, A BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE MOST GUSTINESS OCCURRING IN
THE EVENING.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, A VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S AND TEENS. THE WIND MAY HOLD
THESE UP SOME, HOWEVER IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN RATHER COLD WIND
CHILL VALUES. OVERALL, WE USED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM WITH A COUPLE OF PCPN SHOTS POSSIBLE. THE
WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKED BETTER THAN THE GFS, BOTH
MODELS WERE ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND 925MB WITH ANY ERRORS
ON THE COLD SIDE BY ABOUT 1C. THE DP/DT WITH THE MODELS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS SHOWING A DEEPER EAST COAST TROF. BASED
ON THIS MOVING FORWARD WE WERE SLOWER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
EVENTS.

AN AIR MASS MODIFICATION WITH DECREASING WINDS IS PREDICTED FOR
SUNDAY. GIVEN THE COLD START, CHANCES ARE THAT THE MAX TEMPS
WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THAN USUAL. GIVEN FULL
SUN AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND, WE WENT FULL ADIABATIC
WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO END OF THE AFTERNOON SOUNDING
SUGGESTED MAX TEMPS.

THE WEAKER OF THE NEXT TWO SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH OUR AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, BUT THE
PREDICTED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FGEN FORCING ARE MORE MUTED. THE JET IS
NOT IN A BAD POSITION. GIVEN THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE INITIAL
AIR MASS, MODELS ARE NOT PREDICTING MUCH PCPN. BECAUSE OF THE DPVA
AND THE MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, PCPN SHOULD BE FALLING FROM A
MID CLOUD DECK. NOT SURE IF IT WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND, BUT FOR
NOW WE WENT HIGHER THAN STAT GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE FORCING. WHILE
A LLJ WILL BE WARMING THE SUB CLOUD LAYER AND MIGHT BE ABLE TO OFFSET
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS, SNOW AS A PTYPE IS A POSSIBILITY IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. BECAUSE QPF AMOUNTS ARE LOW, ANY ACCUMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND RISE TOWARD MORNING.

USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE WEAK SYSTEMS, ANY PCPN OCCURS IN THE WAA
PHASE WITH LITTLE IF ANY WITH THE CFP ITSELF. MODELS ARE PRETTY CLOSE
ON THAT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE LAGGING STRONGER
CAA, THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD MORE THAN COMPENSATE FOR COOLING ALOFT.
A STAT GUIDANCE COMBO LOOKS DECENT FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. IT WILL
BECOME WINDIER WIND PEAK GUSTS LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 20 TO 30 MPH.

THE RIDGING FROM THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. BUT WE MAY REMAIN IN A BIT OF A GRADIENT AND
DID NOT BOTTOM MIN TEMPERATURES.

AT LEAST ON PAPER TODAY, THE NEXT ALBERTA TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOOKS MORE ROBUST. A MUCH BETTER PREDICTED COUPLET OF MID LEVEL FGEN
AND QVEC FORCING IN OUR AREA. THIS CAN BE SEEN WITH IN THE QPF
FIELD BY ITSELF. THERE ARE TRACK DIFFERENCES WITH DIFFERENCES
IN OPINION AS TO THE GREATER IMPACT. FOR NOW WE HAVE COMPROMISED
BETWEEN THE DATASETS, THUS ONSET OF UPPED PCPN CHANCES IS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL GET WARMED ON TUESDAY, IT IS STILL COLD ALOFT AND A
CHANGE TO SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH WOULD
BE THE LOGICAL OUTCOME FOR SUCH A SCENARIO. THIS ONE COULD BE
SNOWIER. BECAUSE OF DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK AND THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING, THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME BIG ERRORS WITH MAX TEMPS ON TUE. WE ARE TOWARD THE
HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM.

WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MEANS LITTLE IF ANY
DROP IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WE SHIED AWAY
FROM THE FASTER GFS CFP TIMING. THUS OUR MAX TEMPS THURSDAY ARE HIGHER
THAN ITS STAT GUIDANCE. WE ALSO PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF SHOWER CHANCES
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF`S TIMING AND PERSISTED IT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH CEILINGS MAINLY AROUND 5000 FEET. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY. A FEW SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ORGANIZATION A MENTION WAS NOT INCLUDED
AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS GENERALLY SCATTERING OUT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE DECREASING.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SCATTERED RAIN, HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW, SHOWERS. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR LLWS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS. NORTHWEST WINDS
ON MONDAY SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW AT HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR OR BECOMING VFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CAA WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MIXING DEPTH WILL INCREASE INTO
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
WELL. THE UPTICK IN THE WINDS WILL ALLOW THE SEAS TO BUILD SOME ONCE
AGAIN, ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE HIGHER SETS WILL BE
NEAR THE MOUTH OF DELAWARE BAY AND ALSO FARTHER OFFSHORE. AS A
RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFTS ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY
THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE INCREASING SW FLOW PRECEDING THE NEXT
CFP. WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING MONDAY, MIXING NEAR
COASTAL AREAS COULD KEEP SCA CONDITIONS PERSISTING EVEN AFTER
THE CFP.

MONDAY NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS OUTLOOKED TO RETURN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE OUTLOOKED. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT WITH A CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH OR NEAR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR A STRONGER OVERALL LOW THAT MIGHT INCREASE
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 280801
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SINK SOUTHEAST
AND REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NEAR OR THROUGH THE AREA
LATE ON TUESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO REACH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY MORNING AND APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE WELL,
WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVING
OFF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WELL TO OUR EAST.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON, A
RATHER COLD AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS STRONG CAA IS PRESENT. THE COMBINATION OF THIS CAA AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEPTH
OF THE MIXING LAYER INCREASES. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ABOUT
30 MPH WINDS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.

SOME ENERGY SLIDING OFFSHORE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS MAINTAINING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION VERY
CLOSE TO THE COAST. THIS APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE, SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE TROUGH
AXIS IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AIRMASS WILL BE UNDERGOING A DRYING TREND,
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FORECAST TO BE PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ALOFT, SOME BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND
WITH SOME LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH THERE SHOULD
BE SOME SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. SOME OF THIS MAY INITIALLY NOT REACH
THE GROUND AS THE LOWEST LEVELS DRY SOME MORE. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY, THEREFORE A CONVECTIVE
CONTRIBUTION LOOKS LOW. THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THAT SOME NARROW BANDING OR WRAPAROUND MAY
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVEN DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA. OVERALL THOUGH, ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AS THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF ANYTHING
ORGANIZED IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ATTM.

AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A NAM/GFS MOS AND ECMWF BLEND
OVERALL WITH SOME TWEAKS. WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND THIS COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG CAA WILL RESULT IN A COLD LATE MARCH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS OUR AREA
DURING TONIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY STRETCHED
OUT WITHIN IT AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO FURTHER DRYING. THE TAILEND OF THIS THOUGH MAY
RESULT IN A FEW NARROW STREAMERS OF SNOW SHOWERS ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THIS OCCURS IF IT WERE TO
HAPPEN. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES MAY GET A NARROW BAND OR TWO OF SNOW SHOWERS TO START
THE EVENING, AS STRONGER PVA MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL, THIS WOULD BE
RATHER LOCALIZED AND GIVEN THE DRYING NOT SURE IF IT ACTUALLY
MATERIALIZES INTO MUCH.

OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY HOWEVER ITS CENTER REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THIS ALLOWS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE MIXING SHOULD
DECREASE SOME THROUGH THE EVENING, A BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE MOST GUSTINESS OCCURRING IN
THE EVENING.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, A VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S AND TEENS. THE WIND MAY HOLD
THESE UP SOME, HOWEVER IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN RATHER COLD WIND
CHILL VALUES. OVERALL, WE USED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM WITH A COUPLE OF PCPN SHOTS POSSIBLE. THE
WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKED BETTER THAN THE GFS, BOTH
MODELS WERE ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND 925MB WITH ANY ERRORS
ON THE COLD SIDE BY ABOUT 1C. THE DP/DT WITH THE MODELS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS SHOWING A DEEPER EAST COAST TROF. BASED
ON THIS MOVING FORWARD WE WERE SLOWER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
EVENTS.

AN AIR MASS MODIFICATION WITH DECREASING WINDS IS PREDICTED FOR
SUNDAY. GIVEN THE COLD START, CHANCES ARE THAT THE MAX TEMPS
WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THAN USUAL. GIVEN FULL
SUN AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND, WE WENT FULL ADIABATIC
WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO END OF THE AFTERNOON SOUNDING
SUGGESTED MAX TEMPS.

THE WEAKER OF THE NEXT TWO SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH OUR AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, BUT THE
PREDICTED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FGEN FORCING ARE MORE MUTED. THE JET IS
NOT IN A BAD POSITION. GIVEN THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE INITIAL
AIR MASS, MODELS ARE NOT PREDICTING MUCH PCPN. BECAUSE OF THE DPVA
AND THE MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, PCPN SHOULD BE FALLING FROM A
MID CLOUD DECK. NOT SURE IF IT WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND, BUT FOR
NOW WE WENT HIGHER THAN STAT GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE FORCING. WHILE
A LLJ WILL BE WARMING THE SUB CLOUD LAYER AND MIGHT BE ABLE TO OFFSET
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS, SNOW AS A PTYPE IS A POSSIBILITY IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. BECAUSE QPF AMOUNTS ARE LOW, ANY ACCUMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND RISE TOWARD MORNING.

USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE WEAK SYSTEMS, ANY PCPN OCCURS IN THE WAA
PHASE WITH LITTLE IF ANY WITH THE CFP ITSELF. MODELS ARE PRETTY CLOSE
ON THAT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE LAGGING STRONGER
CAA, THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD MORE THAN COMPENSATE FOR COOLING ALOFT.
A STAT GUIDANCE COMBO LOOKS DECENT FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. IT WILL
BECOME WINDIER WIND PEAK GUSTS LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 20 TO 30 MPH.

THE RIDGING FROM THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. BUT WE MAY REMAIN IN A BIT OF A GRADIENT AND
DID NOT BOTTOM MIN TEMPERATURES.

AT LEAST ON PAPER TODAY, THE NEXT ALBERTA TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOOKS MORE ROBUST. A MUCH BETTER PREDICTED COUPLET OF MID LEVEL FGEN
AND QVEC FORCING IN OUR AREA. THIS CAN BE SEEN WITH IN THE QPF
FIELD BY ITSELF. THERE ARE TRACK DIFFERENCES WITH DIFFERENCES
IN OPINION AS TO THE GREATER IMPACT. FOR NOW WE HAVE COMPROMISED
BETWEEN THE DATASETS, THUS ONSET OF UPPED PCPN CHANCES IS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL GET WARMED ON TUESDAY, IT IS STILL COLD ALOFT AND A
CHANGE TO SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH WOULD
BE THE LOGICAL OUTCOME FOR SUCH A SCENARIO. THIS ONE COULD BE
SNOWIER. BECAUSE OF DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK AND THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING, THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME BIG ERRORS WITH MAX TEMPS ON TUE. WE ARE TOWARD THE
HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM.

WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MEANS LITTLE IF ANY
DROP IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WE SHIED AWAY
FROM THE FASTER GFS CFP TIMING. THUS OUR MAX TEMPS THURSDAY ARE HIGHER
THAN ITS STAT GUIDANCE. WE ALSO PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF SHOWER CHANCES
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF`S TIMING AND PERSISTED IT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH CEILINGS MAINLY AROUND 5000 FEET. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY. A FEW SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ORGANIZATION A MENTION WAS NOT INCLUDED
AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS GENERALLY SCATTERING OUT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE DECREASING.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SCATTERED RAIN, HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW, SHOWERS. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR LLWS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS. NORTHWEST WINDS
ON MONDAY SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW AT HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR OR BECOMING VFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CAA WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MIXING DEPTH WILL INCREASE INTO
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
WELL. THE UPTICK IN THE WINDS WILL ALLOW THE SEAS TO BUILD SOME ONCE
AGAIN, ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE HIGHER SETS WILL BE
NEAR THE MOUTH OF DELAWARE BAY AND ALSO FARTHER OFFSHORE. AS A
RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFTS ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY
THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE INCREASING SW FLOW PRECEDING THE NEXT
CFP. WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING MONDAY, MIXING NEAR
COASTAL AREAS COULD KEEP SCA CONDITIONS PERSISTING EVEN AFTER
THE CFP.

MONDAY NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS OUTLOOKED TO RETURN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE OUTLOOKED. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT WITH A CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH OR NEAR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR A STRONGER OVERALL LOW THAT MIGHT INCREASE
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 280801
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SINK SOUTHEAST
AND REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NEAR OR THROUGH THE AREA
LATE ON TUESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO REACH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY MORNING AND APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE WELL,
WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVING
OFF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WELL TO OUR EAST.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON, A
RATHER COLD AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS STRONG CAA IS PRESENT. THE COMBINATION OF THIS CAA AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEPTH
OF THE MIXING LAYER INCREASES. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ABOUT
30 MPH WINDS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.

SOME ENERGY SLIDING OFFSHORE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS MAINTAINING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION VERY
CLOSE TO THE COAST. THIS APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE, SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE TROUGH
AXIS IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AIRMASS WILL BE UNDERGOING A DRYING TREND,
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FORECAST TO BE PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ALOFT, SOME BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND
WITH SOME LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH THERE SHOULD
BE SOME SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. SOME OF THIS MAY INITIALLY NOT REACH
THE GROUND AS THE LOWEST LEVELS DRY SOME MORE. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY, THEREFORE A CONVECTIVE
CONTRIBUTION LOOKS LOW. THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THAT SOME NARROW BANDING OR WRAPAROUND MAY
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVEN DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA. OVERALL THOUGH, ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AS THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF ANYTHING
ORGANIZED IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ATTM.

AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A NAM/GFS MOS AND ECMWF BLEND
OVERALL WITH SOME TWEAKS. WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND THIS COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG CAA WILL RESULT IN A COLD LATE MARCH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS OUR AREA
DURING TONIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY STRETCHED
OUT WITHIN IT AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO FURTHER DRYING. THE TAILEND OF THIS THOUGH MAY
RESULT IN A FEW NARROW STREAMERS OF SNOW SHOWERS ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THIS OCCURS IF IT WERE TO
HAPPEN. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES MAY GET A NARROW BAND OR TWO OF SNOW SHOWERS TO START
THE EVENING, AS STRONGER PVA MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL, THIS WOULD BE
RATHER LOCALIZED AND GIVEN THE DRYING NOT SURE IF IT ACTUALLY
MATERIALIZES INTO MUCH.

OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY HOWEVER ITS CENTER REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THIS ALLOWS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE MIXING SHOULD
DECREASE SOME THROUGH THE EVENING, A BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE MOST GUSTINESS OCCURRING IN
THE EVENING.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, A VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S AND TEENS. THE WIND MAY HOLD
THESE UP SOME, HOWEVER IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN RATHER COLD WIND
CHILL VALUES. OVERALL, WE USED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM WITH A COUPLE OF PCPN SHOTS POSSIBLE. THE
WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKED BETTER THAN THE GFS, BOTH
MODELS WERE ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND 925MB WITH ANY ERRORS
ON THE COLD SIDE BY ABOUT 1C. THE DP/DT WITH THE MODELS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS SHOWING A DEEPER EAST COAST TROF. BASED
ON THIS MOVING FORWARD WE WERE SLOWER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
EVENTS.

AN AIR MASS MODIFICATION WITH DECREASING WINDS IS PREDICTED FOR
SUNDAY. GIVEN THE COLD START, CHANCES ARE THAT THE MAX TEMPS
WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THAN USUAL. GIVEN FULL
SUN AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND, WE WENT FULL ADIABATIC
WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO END OF THE AFTERNOON SOUNDING
SUGGESTED MAX TEMPS.

THE WEAKER OF THE NEXT TWO SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH OUR AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, BUT THE
PREDICTED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FGEN FORCING ARE MORE MUTED. THE JET IS
NOT IN A BAD POSITION. GIVEN THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE INITIAL
AIR MASS, MODELS ARE NOT PREDICTING MUCH PCPN. BECAUSE OF THE DPVA
AND THE MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, PCPN SHOULD BE FALLING FROM A
MID CLOUD DECK. NOT SURE IF IT WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND, BUT FOR
NOW WE WENT HIGHER THAN STAT GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE FORCING. WHILE
A LLJ WILL BE WARMING THE SUB CLOUD LAYER AND MIGHT BE ABLE TO OFFSET
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS, SNOW AS A PTYPE IS A POSSIBILITY IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. BECAUSE QPF AMOUNTS ARE LOW, ANY ACCUMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND RISE TOWARD MORNING.

USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE WEAK SYSTEMS, ANY PCPN OCCURS IN THE WAA
PHASE WITH LITTLE IF ANY WITH THE CFP ITSELF. MODELS ARE PRETTY CLOSE
ON THAT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE LAGGING STRONGER
CAA, THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD MORE THAN COMPENSATE FOR COOLING ALOFT.
A STAT GUIDANCE COMBO LOOKS DECENT FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. IT WILL
BECOME WINDIER WIND PEAK GUSTS LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 20 TO 30 MPH.

THE RIDGING FROM THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. BUT WE MAY REMAIN IN A BIT OF A GRADIENT AND
DID NOT BOTTOM MIN TEMPERATURES.

AT LEAST ON PAPER TODAY, THE NEXT ALBERTA TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOOKS MORE ROBUST. A MUCH BETTER PREDICTED COUPLET OF MID LEVEL FGEN
AND QVEC FORCING IN OUR AREA. THIS CAN BE SEEN WITH IN THE QPF
FIELD BY ITSELF. THERE ARE TRACK DIFFERENCES WITH DIFFERENCES
IN OPINION AS TO THE GREATER IMPACT. FOR NOW WE HAVE COMPROMISED
BETWEEN THE DATASETS, THUS ONSET OF UPPED PCPN CHANCES IS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL GET WARMED ON TUESDAY, IT IS STILL COLD ALOFT AND A
CHANGE TO SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH WOULD
BE THE LOGICAL OUTCOME FOR SUCH A SCENARIO. THIS ONE COULD BE
SNOWIER. BECAUSE OF DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK AND THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING, THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME BIG ERRORS WITH MAX TEMPS ON TUE. WE ARE TOWARD THE
HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM.

WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MEANS LITTLE IF ANY
DROP IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WE SHIED AWAY
FROM THE FASTER GFS CFP TIMING. THUS OUR MAX TEMPS THURSDAY ARE HIGHER
THAN ITS STAT GUIDANCE. WE ALSO PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF SHOWER CHANCES
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF`S TIMING AND PERSISTED IT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH CEILINGS MAINLY AROUND 5000 FEET. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY. A FEW SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ORGANIZATION A MENTION WAS NOT INCLUDED
AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS GENERALLY SCATTERING OUT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE DECREASING.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SCATTERED RAIN, HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW, SHOWERS. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR LLWS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS. NORTHWEST WINDS
ON MONDAY SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW AT HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR OR BECOMING VFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CAA WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MIXING DEPTH WILL INCREASE INTO
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
WELL. THE UPTICK IN THE WINDS WILL ALLOW THE SEAS TO BUILD SOME ONCE
AGAIN, ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE HIGHER SETS WILL BE
NEAR THE MOUTH OF DELAWARE BAY AND ALSO FARTHER OFFSHORE. AS A
RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFTS ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY
THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE INCREASING SW FLOW PRECEDING THE NEXT
CFP. WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING MONDAY, MIXING NEAR
COASTAL AREAS COULD KEEP SCA CONDITIONS PERSISTING EVEN AFTER
THE CFP.

MONDAY NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS OUTLOOKED TO RETURN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE OUTLOOKED. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT WITH A CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH OR NEAR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR A STRONGER OVERALL LOW THAT MIGHT INCREASE
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 280801
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SINK SOUTHEAST
AND REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NEAR OR THROUGH THE AREA
LATE ON TUESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO REACH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY MORNING AND APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE WELL,
WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVING
OFF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WELL TO OUR EAST.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON, A
RATHER COLD AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS STRONG CAA IS PRESENT. THE COMBINATION OF THIS CAA AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEPTH
OF THE MIXING LAYER INCREASES. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ABOUT
30 MPH WINDS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.

SOME ENERGY SLIDING OFFSHORE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS MAINTAINING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION VERY
CLOSE TO THE COAST. THIS APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE, SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE TROUGH
AXIS IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AIRMASS WILL BE UNDERGOING A DRYING TREND,
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FORECAST TO BE PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ALOFT, SOME BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND
WITH SOME LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH THERE SHOULD
BE SOME SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. SOME OF THIS MAY INITIALLY NOT REACH
THE GROUND AS THE LOWEST LEVELS DRY SOME MORE. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY, THEREFORE A CONVECTIVE
CONTRIBUTION LOOKS LOW. THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THAT SOME NARROW BANDING OR WRAPAROUND MAY
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVEN DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA. OVERALL THOUGH, ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AS THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF ANYTHING
ORGANIZED IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ATTM.

AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A NAM/GFS MOS AND ECMWF BLEND
OVERALL WITH SOME TWEAKS. WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND THIS COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG CAA WILL RESULT IN A COLD LATE MARCH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS OUR AREA
DURING TONIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY STRETCHED
OUT WITHIN IT AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO FURTHER DRYING. THE TAILEND OF THIS THOUGH MAY
RESULT IN A FEW NARROW STREAMERS OF SNOW SHOWERS ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THIS OCCURS IF IT WERE TO
HAPPEN. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES MAY GET A NARROW BAND OR TWO OF SNOW SHOWERS TO START
THE EVENING, AS STRONGER PVA MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL, THIS WOULD BE
RATHER LOCALIZED AND GIVEN THE DRYING NOT SURE IF IT ACTUALLY
MATERIALIZES INTO MUCH.

OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY HOWEVER ITS CENTER REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THIS ALLOWS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE MIXING SHOULD
DECREASE SOME THROUGH THE EVENING, A BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE MOST GUSTINESS OCCURRING IN
THE EVENING.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, A VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S AND TEENS. THE WIND MAY HOLD
THESE UP SOME, HOWEVER IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN RATHER COLD WIND
CHILL VALUES. OVERALL, WE USED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM WITH A COUPLE OF PCPN SHOTS POSSIBLE. THE
WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKED BETTER THAN THE GFS, BOTH
MODELS WERE ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND 925MB WITH ANY ERRORS
ON THE COLD SIDE BY ABOUT 1C. THE DP/DT WITH THE MODELS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS SHOWING A DEEPER EAST COAST TROF. BASED
ON THIS MOVING FORWARD WE WERE SLOWER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
EVENTS.

AN AIR MASS MODIFICATION WITH DECREASING WINDS IS PREDICTED FOR
SUNDAY. GIVEN THE COLD START, CHANCES ARE THAT THE MAX TEMPS
WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THAN USUAL. GIVEN FULL
SUN AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND, WE WENT FULL ADIABATIC
WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO END OF THE AFTERNOON SOUNDING
SUGGESTED MAX TEMPS.

THE WEAKER OF THE NEXT TWO SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH OUR AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, BUT THE
PREDICTED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FGEN FORCING ARE MORE MUTED. THE JET IS
NOT IN A BAD POSITION. GIVEN THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE INITIAL
AIR MASS, MODELS ARE NOT PREDICTING MUCH PCPN. BECAUSE OF THE DPVA
AND THE MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, PCPN SHOULD BE FALLING FROM A
MID CLOUD DECK. NOT SURE IF IT WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND, BUT FOR
NOW WE WENT HIGHER THAN STAT GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE FORCING. WHILE
A LLJ WILL BE WARMING THE SUB CLOUD LAYER AND MIGHT BE ABLE TO OFFSET
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS, SNOW AS A PTYPE IS A POSSIBILITY IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. BECAUSE QPF AMOUNTS ARE LOW, ANY ACCUMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND RISE TOWARD MORNING.

USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE WEAK SYSTEMS, ANY PCPN OCCURS IN THE WAA
PHASE WITH LITTLE IF ANY WITH THE CFP ITSELF. MODELS ARE PRETTY CLOSE
ON THAT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE LAGGING STRONGER
CAA, THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD MORE THAN COMPENSATE FOR COOLING ALOFT.
A STAT GUIDANCE COMBO LOOKS DECENT FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. IT WILL
BECOME WINDIER WIND PEAK GUSTS LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 20 TO 30 MPH.

THE RIDGING FROM THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. BUT WE MAY REMAIN IN A BIT OF A GRADIENT AND
DID NOT BOTTOM MIN TEMPERATURES.

AT LEAST ON PAPER TODAY, THE NEXT ALBERTA TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOOKS MORE ROBUST. A MUCH BETTER PREDICTED COUPLET OF MID LEVEL FGEN
AND QVEC FORCING IN OUR AREA. THIS CAN BE SEEN WITH IN THE QPF
FIELD BY ITSELF. THERE ARE TRACK DIFFERENCES WITH DIFFERENCES
IN OPINION AS TO THE GREATER IMPACT. FOR NOW WE HAVE COMPROMISED
BETWEEN THE DATASETS, THUS ONSET OF UPPED PCPN CHANCES IS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL GET WARMED ON TUESDAY, IT IS STILL COLD ALOFT AND A
CHANGE TO SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH WOULD
BE THE LOGICAL OUTCOME FOR SUCH A SCENARIO. THIS ONE COULD BE
SNOWIER. BECAUSE OF DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK AND THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING, THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME BIG ERRORS WITH MAX TEMPS ON TUE. WE ARE TOWARD THE
HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM.

WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MEANS LITTLE IF ANY
DROP IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WE SHIED AWAY
FROM THE FASTER GFS CFP TIMING. THUS OUR MAX TEMPS THURSDAY ARE HIGHER
THAN ITS STAT GUIDANCE. WE ALSO PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF SHOWER CHANCES
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF`S TIMING AND PERSISTED IT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH CEILINGS MAINLY AROUND 5000 FEET. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY. A FEW SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ORGANIZATION A MENTION WAS NOT INCLUDED
AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS GENERALLY SCATTERING OUT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE DECREASING.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SCATTERED RAIN, HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW, SHOWERS. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR LLWS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS. NORTHWEST WINDS
ON MONDAY SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW AT HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR OR BECOMING VFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CAA WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MIXING DEPTH WILL INCREASE INTO
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
WELL. THE UPTICK IN THE WINDS WILL ALLOW THE SEAS TO BUILD SOME ONCE
AGAIN, ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE HIGHER SETS WILL BE
NEAR THE MOUTH OF DELAWARE BAY AND ALSO FARTHER OFFSHORE. AS A
RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFTS ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY
THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE INCREASING SW FLOW PRECEDING THE NEXT
CFP. WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING MONDAY, MIXING NEAR
COASTAL AREAS COULD KEEP SCA CONDITIONS PERSISTING EVEN AFTER
THE CFP.

MONDAY NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS OUTLOOKED TO RETURN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE OUTLOOKED. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT WITH A CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH OR NEAR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR A STRONGER OVERALL LOW THAT MIGHT INCREASE
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 280801
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SINK SOUTHEAST
AND REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING NEAR OR THROUGH THE AREA
LATE ON TUESDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO
THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO REACH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY MORNING AND APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE WELL,
WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND MOVING
OFF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WELL TO OUR EAST.

AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON, A
RATHER COLD AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL ARRIVE. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS STRONG CAA IS PRESENT. THE COMBINATION OF THIS CAA AND A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEPTH
OF THE MIXING LAYER INCREASES. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ABOUT
30 MPH WINDS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA.

SOME ENERGY SLIDING OFFSHORE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS MAINTAINING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION VERY
CLOSE TO THE COAST. THIS APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE, SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE WITHIN THE TROUGH
AXIS IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE AIRMASS WILL BE UNDERGOING A DRYING TREND,
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FORECAST TO BE PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS.
THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ALOFT, SOME BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND
WITH SOME LIFT FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH THERE SHOULD
BE SOME SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. SOME OF THIS MAY INITIALLY NOT REACH
THE GROUND AS THE LOWEST LEVELS DRY SOME MORE. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY, THEREFORE A CONVECTIVE
CONTRIBUTION LOOKS LOW. THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE THAT SOME NARROW BANDING OR WRAPAROUND MAY
DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVEN DOWN INTO THE DELMARVA. OVERALL THOUGH, ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS AS THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF ANYTHING
ORGANIZED IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE ATTM.

AS FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A NAM/GFS MOS AND ECMWF BLEND
OVERALL WITH SOME TWEAKS. WE SHOULD MAINTAIN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND THIS COMBINED
WITH THE STRONG CAA WILL RESULT IN A COLD LATE MARCH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO SWING ACROSS OUR AREA
DURING TONIGHT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY STRETCHED
OUT WITHIN IT AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER THE AIRMASS IS
FORECAST TO UNDERGO FURTHER DRYING. THE TAILEND OF THIS THOUGH MAY
RESULT IN A FEW NARROW STREAMERS OF SNOW SHOWERS ALTHOUGH IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE THIS OCCURS IF IT WERE TO
HAPPEN. SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES MAY GET A NARROW BAND OR TWO OF SNOW SHOWERS TO START
THE EVENING, AS STRONGER PVA MOVES THROUGH. OVERALL, THIS WOULD BE
RATHER LOCALIZED AND GIVEN THE DRYING NOT SURE IF IT ACTUALLY
MATERIALIZES INTO MUCH.

OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY HOWEVER ITS CENTER REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THIS ALLOWS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE MIXING SHOULD
DECREASE SOME THROUGH THE EVENING, A BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE MOST GUSTINESS OCCURRING IN
THE EVENING.

AS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURES, A VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S AND TEENS. THE WIND MAY HOLD
THESE UP SOME, HOWEVER IT WILL ALSO RESULT IN RATHER COLD WIND
CHILL VALUES. OVERALL, WE USED A MOS BLEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE LONG TERM WITH A COUPLE OF PCPN SHOTS POSSIBLE. THE
WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION AT 500MB LOOKED BETTER THAN THE GFS, BOTH
MODELS WERE ABOUT THE SAME AT 850MB AND 925MB WITH ANY ERRORS
ON THE COLD SIDE BY ABOUT 1C. THE DP/DT WITH THE MODELS OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS WAS SHOWING A DEEPER EAST COAST TROF. BASED
ON THIS MOVING FORWARD WE WERE SLOWER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF
EVENTS.

AN AIR MASS MODIFICATION WITH DECREASING WINDS IS PREDICTED FOR
SUNDAY. GIVEN THE COLD START, CHANCES ARE THAT THE MAX TEMPS
WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THAN USUAL. GIVEN FULL
SUN AND A DOWNSLOPING WIND, WE WENT FULL ADIABATIC
WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO END OF THE AFTERNOON SOUNDING
SUGGESTED MAX TEMPS.

THE WEAKER OF THE NEXT TWO SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH OUR AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, BUT THE
PREDICTED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FGEN FORCING ARE MORE MUTED. THE JET IS
NOT IN A BAD POSITION. GIVEN THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE INITIAL
AIR MASS, MODELS ARE NOT PREDICTING MUCH PCPN. BECAUSE OF THE DPVA
AND THE MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, PCPN SHOULD BE FALLING FROM A
MID CLOUD DECK. NOT SURE IF IT WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND, BUT FOR
NOW WE WENT HIGHER THAN STAT GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE FORCING. WHILE
A LLJ WILL BE WARMING THE SUB CLOUD LAYER AND MIGHT BE ABLE TO OFFSET
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS, SNOW AS A PTYPE IS A POSSIBILITY IN
THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. BECAUSE QPF AMOUNTS ARE LOW, ANY ACCUMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT AND RISE TOWARD MORNING.

USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE WEAK SYSTEMS, ANY PCPN OCCURS IN THE WAA
PHASE WITH LITTLE IF ANY WITH THE CFP ITSELF. MODELS ARE PRETTY CLOSE
ON THAT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. WITH THE LAGGING STRONGER
CAA, THE DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD MORE THAN COMPENSATE FOR COOLING ALOFT.
A STAT GUIDANCE COMBO LOOKS DECENT FOR MAX TEMPERATURES. IT WILL
BECOME WINDIER WIND PEAK GUSTS LIKELY REACHING AT LEAST 20 TO 30 MPH.

THE RIDGING FROM THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER OUR FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. BUT WE MAY REMAIN IN A BIT OF A GRADIENT AND
DID NOT BOTTOM MIN TEMPERATURES.

AT LEAST ON PAPER TODAY, THE NEXT ALBERTA TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOOKS MORE ROBUST. A MUCH BETTER PREDICTED COUPLET OF MID LEVEL FGEN
AND QVEC FORCING IN OUR AREA. THIS CAN BE SEEN WITH IN THE QPF
FIELD BY ITSELF. THERE ARE TRACK DIFFERENCES WITH DIFFERENCES
IN OPINION AS TO THE GREATER IMPACT. FOR NOW WE HAVE COMPROMISED
BETWEEN THE DATASETS, THUS ONSET OF UPPED PCPN CHANCES IS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL GET WARMED ON TUESDAY, IT IS STILL COLD ALOFT AND A
CHANGE TO SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH WOULD
BE THE LOGICAL OUTCOME FOR SUCH A SCENARIO. THIS ONE COULD BE
SNOWIER. BECAUSE OF DIFFERENCES WITH THE TRACK AND THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY OF TIMING, THERE EXISTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME BIG ERRORS WITH MAX TEMPS ON TUE. WE ARE TOWARD THE
HIGHER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM.

WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MEANS LITTLE IF ANY
DROP IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. THE REST OF THE LONG TERM WE SHIED AWAY
FROM THE FASTER GFS CFP TIMING. THUS OUR MAX TEMPS THURSDAY ARE HIGHER
THAN ITS STAT GUIDANCE. WE ALSO PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF SHOWER CHANCES
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF`S TIMING AND PERSISTED IT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH CEILINGS MAINLY AROUND 5000 FEET. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
25 KNOTS BY MIDDAY. A FEW SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY ORGANIZATION A MENTION WAS NOT INCLUDED
AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS GENERALLY SCATTERING OUT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE DECREASING.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SCATTERED RAIN, HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW, SHOWERS. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR LLWS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS. NORTHWEST WINDS
ON MONDAY SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS
IN RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW AT HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR OR BECOMING VFR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CAA WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MIXING DEPTH WILL INCREASE INTO
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
WELL. THE UPTICK IN THE WINDS WILL ALLOW THE SEAS TO BUILD SOME ONCE
AGAIN, ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE HIGHER SETS WILL BE
NEAR THE MOUTH OF DELAWARE BAY AND ALSO FARTHER OFFSHORE. AS A
RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFTS ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY
THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS
IS POSSIBLE IN THE INCREASING SW FLOW PRECEDING THE NEXT
CFP. WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING MONDAY, MIXING NEAR
COASTAL AREAS COULD KEEP SCA CONDITIONS PERSISTING EVEN AFTER
THE CFP.

MONDAY NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS OUTLOOKED TO RETURN AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE OUTLOOKED. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT WITH A CLIPPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH OR NEAR OUR COASTAL WATERS, WE
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR A STRONGER OVERALL LOW THAT MIGHT INCREASE
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 280136
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF
COLD FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST OF THE PA APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOTICED THE 18Z
RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM AND 12Z EC, SORT OF HAD A SPIKE IN DEEPER RH
NEAR 12Z SATURDAY. THE NAM/RAP/HRRR SPOT SOME FLURRIES SEWD TO
KRDG OVERNIGHT. NOT SURE HOW EXTENSIVE THIS MIGHT BECOME.

PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK OVER OUR AREA AS OF 01Z/28, BETWEEN THE
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW EAST OF VIRGINIA AND WHAT I THINK IS A
PRETTY COLD AIR MASS BENEATH THE SEWD MOVING AND SHARPENING TROF
ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES/S ONTARIO AND WESTERN NYS, POISED TO
MAKE ITS MOVE DOWN OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY WHEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES. FOR NOW, WE INCREASE THE GUSTS A BIT TOWARD
MORNING, ESPECIALLY THE POCONOS IN DEVELOPING STRONGER CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...
BUT THE COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO BE MOVG ACROSS THE AREA.
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE DECREASING AND THERE DOES
NOT SEEM TO BE ANY ORGANIZED UVV. HWVR...WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND SFC HEATING MAY RESULT IN SOME INSTABILITY
AND POSSIBLY SOME SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS. COLD 850 MB TEMPS
WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SNOW...HWVR WARMER/DRIER AIR BELOW COULD
CAUSE MELTING OR EVAPORATION BEFORE SNOW REACHES THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY
FROM PHL SWD AND EWD. SOME OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY APPEARS TO
BE MOVING FROM CENTRAL PA MIDDAY TO THE DELMARVA SATURDAY EVENING.
ITS MATCHED WITH A SFC TROUGH. 700MB TEMPS ARE MODELED TO NEAR -24C
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE NORTH OF KBWI AT 00Z/29.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 MPH DURING THE AFTN ADDING
TO AN OTHERWISE NIPPY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL! OUR CURRENTLY FCST TEMPS MAY BE A DEG OR TWO ON THE
WARM SIDE, ESPECIALLY IF ITS MO CLOUDY

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY QUICK
MOVING COLD FRONTS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BY LATE IN THE WEEK, THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARMER
PATTERN WITH MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET OVERALL WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION. SETUP IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE PINE BARRENS AND ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
PA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE 20`S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 40`S
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES TO COOL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH. BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS KEEP PRECIPITATION LIGHT AND IN THE CHANCE RANGE ATTM.
LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING NORTHWEST WARRANT MIXED P-TYPE
CHANCES ATTM WITH NO WINTRY ACCUMULATION. WITH MORE CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 30`S WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. EVEN
WITH A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE TO WEST/NORTHWEST ON MONDAY, 925 MB
TEMPERATURES DON`T FALL MUCH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PEAKS OF SUN
EXISTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL GO WITH THE WARMER ECM AND MEX
GUIDANCE. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME MIXING POTENTIAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY:  A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODEL DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK OF THESE NORTHWEST
FLOW SYSTEMS DIVING SOUTHEAST OF CANADA STARTS TO VARY IN THIS
PERIOD. FAIRLY TIGHT SPREAD IN ALL GUIDANCE ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE 50`S AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE
30`S.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/UKMET ARE
SIMILAR WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CLOSE TO THE WPC PROGS. THE CMC LOOKS TO FAR
SOUTH WITH THE TRACK. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT
QPF, HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK. STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IN THIS PERIOD FOR MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONGER
RIDGE TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST NEAR BERMUDA. THIS WOULD HAVE
THE EFFECT OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW, PUMPING A MILDER AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION. MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES RESPOND NICELY TO
THIS PATTERN CHANGE IN THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL TAKE THE FORECAST ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE RANGE IN THIS TIMEFRAME. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOWER CHANCE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE 12Z GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. IN TERMS
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS, SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE ABUNDANT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH INSTABILITY LACKING BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. STILL A CONSIDERABLE TIME TO EXAMINE ANY
THUNDER THREAT WITH THIS COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUSTS AOB 15
KT MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER 09Z. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY: VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT. NW WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO 25-30
KT BY OR DURING THE AFTN. SCATTERED SHOWERS OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO
MVFR...BUT NOT FOR LONG. CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO IS ABOVE
AVERAGE THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON ON MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS IS BELOW
AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY THEN DIMINISHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS SHIFTING TO WEST/NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND GUSTING TO AROUND
20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: VFR, WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS SHIFTING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: POTENTIAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT ABE AND TTN. WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NW WIND GUSTS TONIGHT WHICH ARE UNDER 15 KT AT 9 PM EDT WILL
INCREASE TOWARD DAWN. HAVE SLIGHTLY DELAYED THE START OF THE SCA
ON DELAWARE BAY AND IT MAY NOT REALLY START THERE TIL ABOUT 6 AM.
MEANWHILE SEAS OFF THE COASTS ARE GENERALLY AOB4FT EXCEPT NEAR 5
FT AT 44009.

SATURDAY...A WIDESPREAD SCA DEVELOPS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NW WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT BY DAYS
END.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
SEAS AROUND FIVE FEET WITH GUSTS AROUND AND JUST OVER 25 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: SUB SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY WHICH
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT TO SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS AND WIND GUSTS SHIFTING FROM WEST
TO NORTHWEST AND DECREASING BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY NIGHT.


TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SUB SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MARCH MONTHLY AVG TEMPS DEPARTURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES
SEEN ON THE CF6`S THROUGH THE 26TH. FOR PHL THATS ABOUT 4 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. NOT A TOP 20 COLDEST MONTH OF MARCH.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG  935
SHORT TERM...AMC/DRAG 935
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 935
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES 935
CLIMATE...935





000
FXUS61 KPHI 280136
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF
COLD FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLY SOME FLURRIES DRIFTING
SOUTHEAST OF THE PA APPALACHIANS AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOTICED THE 18Z
RUNS OF THE GFS/NAM AND 12Z EC, SORT OF HAD A SPIKE IN DEEPER RH
NEAR 12Z SATURDAY. THE NAM/RAP/HRRR SPOT SOME FLURRIES SEWD TO
KRDG OVERNIGHT. NOT SURE HOW EXTENSIVE THIS MIGHT BECOME.

PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAK OVER OUR AREA AS OF 01Z/28, BETWEEN THE
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW EAST OF VIRGINIA AND WHAT I THINK IS A
PRETTY COLD AIR MASS BENEATH THE SEWD MOVING AND SHARPENING TROF
ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES/S ONTARIO AND WESTERN NYS, POISED TO
MAKE ITS MOVE DOWN OVER OUR AREA SATURDAY WHEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES. FOR NOW, WE INCREASE THE GUSTS A BIT TOWARD
MORNING, ESPECIALLY THE POCONOS IN DEVELOPING STRONGER CAA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...
BUT THE COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO BE MOVG ACROSS THE AREA.
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE DECREASING AND THERE DOES
NOT SEEM TO BE ANY ORGANIZED UVV. HWVR...WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND SFC HEATING MAY RESULT IN SOME INSTABILITY
AND POSSIBLY SOME SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS. COLD 850 MB TEMPS
WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SNOW...HWVR WARMER/DRIER AIR BELOW COULD
CAUSE MELTING OR EVAPORATION BEFORE SNOW REACHES THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY
FROM PHL SWD AND EWD. SOME OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY APPEARS TO
BE MOVING FROM CENTRAL PA MIDDAY TO THE DELMARVA SATURDAY EVENING.
ITS MATCHED WITH A SFC TROUGH. 700MB TEMPS ARE MODELED TO NEAR -24C
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE NORTH OF KBWI AT 00Z/29.

GUSTY NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25-30 MPH DURING THE AFTN ADDING
TO AN OTHERWISE NIPPY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL! OUR CURRENTLY FCST TEMPS MAY BE A DEG OR TWO ON THE
WARM SIDE, ESPECIALLY IF ITS MO CLOUDY

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY QUICK
MOVING COLD FRONTS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BY LATE IN THE WEEK, THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARMER
PATTERN WITH MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET OVERALL WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION. SETUP IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE PINE BARRENS AND ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
PA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE 20`S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 40`S
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES TO COOL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH. BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS KEEP PRECIPITATION LIGHT AND IN THE CHANCE RANGE ATTM.
LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING NORTHWEST WARRANT MIXED P-TYPE
CHANCES ATTM WITH NO WINTRY ACCUMULATION. WITH MORE CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 30`S WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. EVEN
WITH A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE TO WEST/NORTHWEST ON MONDAY, 925 MB
TEMPERATURES DON`T FALL MUCH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PEAKS OF SUN
EXISTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL GO WITH THE WARMER ECM AND MEX
GUIDANCE. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME MIXING POTENTIAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY:  A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODEL DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK OF THESE NORTHWEST
FLOW SYSTEMS DIVING SOUTHEAST OF CANADA STARTS TO VARY IN THIS
PERIOD. FAIRLY TIGHT SPREAD IN ALL GUIDANCE ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE 50`S AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE
30`S.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/UKMET ARE
SIMILAR WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CLOSE TO THE WPC PROGS. THE CMC LOOKS TO FAR
SOUTH WITH THE TRACK. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT
QPF, HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK. STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IN THIS PERIOD FOR MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONGER
RIDGE TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST NEAR BERMUDA. THIS WOULD HAVE
THE EFFECT OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW, PUMPING A MILDER AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION. MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES RESPOND NICELY TO
THIS PATTERN CHANGE IN THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL TAKE THE FORECAST ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE RANGE IN THIS TIMEFRAME. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOWER CHANCE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE 12Z GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. IN TERMS
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS, SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE ABUNDANT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH INSTABILITY LACKING BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. STILL A CONSIDERABLE TIME TO EXAMINE ANY
THUNDER THREAT WITH THIS COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUSTS AOB 15
KT MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER 09Z. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY: VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT. NW WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO 25-30
KT BY OR DURING THE AFTN. SCATTERED SHOWERS OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO
MVFR...BUT NOT FOR LONG. CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO IS ABOVE
AVERAGE THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON ON MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS IS BELOW
AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY THEN DIMINISHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS SHIFTING TO WEST/NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND GUSTING TO AROUND
20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: VFR, WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS SHIFTING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: POTENTIAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT ABE AND TTN. WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NW WIND GUSTS TONIGHT WHICH ARE UNDER 15 KT AT 9 PM EDT WILL
INCREASE TOWARD DAWN. HAVE SLIGHTLY DELAYED THE START OF THE SCA
ON DELAWARE BAY AND IT MAY NOT REALLY START THERE TIL ABOUT 6 AM.
MEANWHILE SEAS OFF THE COASTS ARE GENERALLY AOB4FT EXCEPT NEAR 5
FT AT 44009.

SATURDAY...A WIDESPREAD SCA DEVELOPS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH NW WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT BY DAYS
END.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
SEAS AROUND FIVE FEET WITH GUSTS AROUND AND JUST OVER 25 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: SUB SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY WHICH
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT TO SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS AND WIND GUSTS SHIFTING FROM WEST
TO NORTHWEST AND DECREASING BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY NIGHT.


TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SUB SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MARCH MONTHLY AVG TEMPS DEPARTURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES
SEEN ON THE CF6`S THROUGH THE 26TH. FOR PHL THATS ABOUT 4 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. NOT A TOP 20 COLDEST MONTH OF MARCH.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG  935
SHORT TERM...AMC/DRAG 935
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 935
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES 935
CLIMATE...935




000
FXUS61 KPHI 272232
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
632 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NOT SURE HOW MANY NOTICED BUT VERY WET SNOW FLAKES WERE MIXED
WITH THE SNOW AROUND 715AM JUST NORTH OF MT HOLLY WITH SNOW DOWN
TO DOYLESTOWN AND .2 TO 1.5" ACCUM EARLY TODAY NEAR AND NORTH OF
I-80.

RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY END THIS EVENING THE SE CORNER OF SUSSEX
COUNTY DE AND THE S TIP OF CAPE MAY. OTRW, VARIABLE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW POSSIBLY GUSTY TO 15 MPH.

&&


.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...
BUT THE COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO BE MOVG ACROSS THE AREA.
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE DECREASING AND THERE DOES
NOT SEEM TO BE ANY ORGANIZED UVV. HWVR...WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND SFC HEATING MAY RESULT IN SOME INSTABILITY
AND POSSIBLY SOME SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS. COLD 850 MB TEMPS
WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SNOW...HWVR WARMER/DRIER AIR BELOW COULD
CAUSE MELTING OR EVAPORATION BEFORE SNOW REACHES THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY
FROM PHL SWD AND EWD. SOME OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY APPEARS TO
BE MOVING FROM CENTRAL PA MIDDAY TO THE DELMARVA SATURDAY EVENING.
ITS MATCHED WITH A SFC TROUGH. 700MB TEMPS ARE MODELED TO NEAR -24C
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE NORTH OF KBWI AT 00Z/29.

GUSTY NW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 25 OR 30 MPH DURING THE AFTN ON
AN OTHERWISE NIPPY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY QUICK
MOVING COLD FRONTS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BY LATE IN THE WEEK, THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARMER
PATTERN WITH MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET OVERALL WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION. SETUP IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE PINE BARRENS AND ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
PA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE 20`S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 40`S
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES TO COOL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH. BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS KEEP PRECIPITATION LIGHT AND IN THE CHANCE RANGE ATTM.
LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING NORTHWEST WARRANT MIXED P-TYPE
CHANCES ATTM WITH NO WINTRY ACCUMULATION. WITH MORE CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 30`S WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. EVEN
WITH A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE TO WEST/NORTHWEST ON MONDAY, 925 MB
TEMPERATURES DON`T FALL MUCH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PEAKS OF SUN
EXISTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL GO WITH THE WARMER ECM AND MEX
GUIDANCE. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME MIXING POTENTIAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY:  A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODEL DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK OF THESE NORTHWEST
FLOW SYSTEMS DIVING SOUTHEAST OF CANADA STARTS TO VARY IN THIS
PERIOD. FAIRLY TIGHT SPREAD IN ALL GUIDANCE ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE 50`S AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE
30`S.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/UKMET ARE
SIMILAR WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CLOSE TO THE WPC PROGS. THE CMC LOOKS TO FAR
SOUTH WITH THE TRACK. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT
QPF, HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK. STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IN THIS PERIOD FOR MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONGER
RIDGE TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST NEAR BERMUDA. THIS WOULD HAVE
THE EFFECT OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW, PUMPING A MILDER AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION. MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES RESPOND NICELY TO
THIS PATTERN CHANGE IN THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL TAKE THE FORECAST ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE RANGE IN THIS TIMEFRAME. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOWER CHANCE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE 12Z GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. IN TERMS
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS, SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE ABUNDANT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH INSTABILITY LACKING BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. STILL A CONSIDERABLE TIME TO EXAMINE ANY
THUNDER THREAT WITH THIS COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUSTS AOB 15 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY: VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT. NW WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO 25 OR 30 KT
BY OR DURING THE AFTN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR...BUT NOT FOR
LONG.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY THEN DIMINISHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS SHIFTING TO WEST/NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND GUSTING TO AROUND
20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: VFR, WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS SHIFTING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: POTENTIAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT ABE AND TTN. WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF MID AFTERNOON...WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ALTHO SEAS AT BUOY 44009 ARE STILL NEAR 5 FT. HWVR...AN SCA REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS...AND WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT
FOR DEL BAY...AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR OVERNIGHT WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING NW WINDS STARTING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY. NW WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT WELL OFFSHORE. SCA CONDS
WILL LIKELY CONT INTO SAT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SEAS
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH GUSTS AROUND AND JUST OVER 25 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: SUB SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY WHICH
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT TO SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS AND WIND GUSTS SHIFTING FROM WEST
TO NORTHWEST AND DECREASING BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY NIGHT.


TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SUB SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MARCH MONTHLY AVG TEMPS DEPARTURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES
THROUGH THE 26TH,  FOR PHL THATS ABOUT 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC/DRAG 632
SHORT TERM...AMC/DRAG 632
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG/GAINES 632
MARINE...AMC/DRAG/GAINES 632
CLIMATE...632





000
FXUS61 KPHI 272232
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
632 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NOT SURE HOW MANY NOTICED BUT VERY WET SNOW FLAKES WERE MIXED
WITH THE SNOW AROUND 715AM JUST NORTH OF MT HOLLY WITH SNOW DOWN
TO DOYLESTOWN AND .2 TO 1.5" ACCUM EARLY TODAY NEAR AND NORTH OF
I-80.

RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY END THIS EVENING THE SE CORNER OF SUSSEX
COUNTY DE AND THE S TIP OF CAPE MAY. OTRW, VARIABLE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW POSSIBLY GUSTY TO 15 MPH.

&&


.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...
BUT THE COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO BE MOVG ACROSS THE AREA.
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE DECREASING AND THERE DOES
NOT SEEM TO BE ANY ORGANIZED UVV. HWVR...WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND SFC HEATING MAY RESULT IN SOME INSTABILITY
AND POSSIBLY SOME SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS. COLD 850 MB TEMPS
WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SNOW...HWVR WARMER/DRIER AIR BELOW COULD
CAUSE MELTING OR EVAPORATION BEFORE SNOW REACHES THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY
FROM PHL SWD AND EWD. SOME OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY APPEARS TO
BE MOVING FROM CENTRAL PA MIDDAY TO THE DELMARVA SATURDAY EVENING.
ITS MATCHED WITH A SFC TROUGH. 700MB TEMPS ARE MODELED TO NEAR -24C
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE NORTH OF KBWI AT 00Z/29.

GUSTY NW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 25 OR 30 MPH DURING THE AFTN ON
AN OTHERWISE NIPPY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY QUICK
MOVING COLD FRONTS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BY LATE IN THE WEEK, THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARMER
PATTERN WITH MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET OVERALL WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION. SETUP IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE PINE BARRENS AND ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
PA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE 20`S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 40`S
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES TO COOL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH. BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS KEEP PRECIPITATION LIGHT AND IN THE CHANCE RANGE ATTM.
LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING NORTHWEST WARRANT MIXED P-TYPE
CHANCES ATTM WITH NO WINTRY ACCUMULATION. WITH MORE CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 30`S WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. EVEN
WITH A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE TO WEST/NORTHWEST ON MONDAY, 925 MB
TEMPERATURES DON`T FALL MUCH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PEAKS OF SUN
EXISTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL GO WITH THE WARMER ECM AND MEX
GUIDANCE. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME MIXING POTENTIAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY:  A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODEL DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK OF THESE NORTHWEST
FLOW SYSTEMS DIVING SOUTHEAST OF CANADA STARTS TO VARY IN THIS
PERIOD. FAIRLY TIGHT SPREAD IN ALL GUIDANCE ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE 50`S AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE
30`S.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/UKMET ARE
SIMILAR WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CLOSE TO THE WPC PROGS. THE CMC LOOKS TO FAR
SOUTH WITH THE TRACK. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT
QPF, HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK. STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IN THIS PERIOD FOR MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONGER
RIDGE TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST NEAR BERMUDA. THIS WOULD HAVE
THE EFFECT OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW, PUMPING A MILDER AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION. MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES RESPOND NICELY TO
THIS PATTERN CHANGE IN THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL TAKE THE FORECAST ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE RANGE IN THIS TIMEFRAME. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOWER CHANCE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE 12Z GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. IN TERMS
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS, SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE ABUNDANT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH INSTABILITY LACKING BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. STILL A CONSIDERABLE TIME TO EXAMINE ANY
THUNDER THREAT WITH THIS COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUSTS AOB 15 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY: VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT. NW WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO 25 OR 30 KT
BY OR DURING THE AFTN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR...BUT NOT FOR
LONG.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY THEN DIMINISHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS SHIFTING TO WEST/NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND GUSTING TO AROUND
20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: VFR, WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS SHIFTING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: POTENTIAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT ABE AND TTN. WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF MID AFTERNOON...WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ALTHO SEAS AT BUOY 44009 ARE STILL NEAR 5 FT. HWVR...AN SCA REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS...AND WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT
FOR DEL BAY...AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR OVERNIGHT WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING NW WINDS STARTING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY. NW WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT WELL OFFSHORE. SCA CONDS
WILL LIKELY CONT INTO SAT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SEAS
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH GUSTS AROUND AND JUST OVER 25 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: SUB SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY WHICH
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT TO SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS AND WIND GUSTS SHIFTING FROM WEST
TO NORTHWEST AND DECREASING BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY NIGHT.


TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SUB SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MARCH MONTHLY AVG TEMPS DEPARTURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES
THROUGH THE 26TH,  FOR PHL THATS ABOUT 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC/DRAG 632
SHORT TERM...AMC/DRAG 632
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG/GAINES 632
MARINE...AMC/DRAG/GAINES 632
CLIMATE...632




000
FXUS61 KPHI 272232
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
632 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NOT SURE HOW MANY NOTICED BUT VERY WET SNOW FLAKES WERE MIXED
WITH THE SNOW AROUND 715AM JUST NORTH OF MT HOLLY WITH SNOW DOWN
TO DOYLESTOWN AND .2 TO 1.5" ACCUM EARLY TODAY NEAR AND NORTH OF
I-80.

RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY END THIS EVENING THE SE CORNER OF SUSSEX
COUNTY DE AND THE S TIP OF CAPE MAY. OTRW, VARIABLE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW POSSIBLY GUSTY TO 15 MPH.

&&


.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...
BUT THE COLD UPPER-LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO BE MOVG ACROSS THE AREA.
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE DECREASING AND THERE DOES
NOT SEEM TO BE ANY ORGANIZED UVV. HWVR...WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ANY
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND SFC HEATING MAY RESULT IN SOME INSTABILITY
AND POSSIBLY SOME SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS. COLD 850 MB TEMPS
WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SNOW...HWVR WARMER/DRIER AIR BELOW COULD
CAUSE MELTING OR EVAPORATION BEFORE SNOW REACHES THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY
FROM PHL SWD AND EWD. SOME OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY APPEARS TO
BE MOVING FROM CENTRAL PA MIDDAY TO THE DELMARVA SATURDAY EVENING.
ITS MATCHED WITH A SFC TROUGH. 700MB TEMPS ARE MODELED TO NEAR -24C
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE NORTH OF KBWI AT 00Z/29.

GUSTY NW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 25 OR 30 MPH DURING THE AFTN ON
AN OTHERWISE NIPPY DAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY QUICK
MOVING COLD FRONTS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BY LATE IN THE WEEK, THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARMER
PATTERN WITH MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET OVERALL WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION. SETUP IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE PINE BARRENS AND ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
PA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE 20`S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 40`S
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES TO COOL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH. BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS KEEP PRECIPITATION LIGHT AND IN THE CHANCE RANGE ATTM.
LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING NORTHWEST WARRANT MIXED P-TYPE
CHANCES ATTM WITH NO WINTRY ACCUMULATION. WITH MORE CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 30`S WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. EVEN
WITH A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE TO WEST/NORTHWEST ON MONDAY, 925 MB
TEMPERATURES DON`T FALL MUCH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PEAKS OF SUN
EXISTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL GO WITH THE WARMER ECM AND MEX
GUIDANCE. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME MIXING POTENTIAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY:  A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODEL DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK OF THESE NORTHWEST
FLOW SYSTEMS DIVING SOUTHEAST OF CANADA STARTS TO VARY IN THIS
PERIOD. FAIRLY TIGHT SPREAD IN ALL GUIDANCE ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE 50`S AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE
30`S.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/UKMET ARE
SIMILAR WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CLOSE TO THE WPC PROGS. THE CMC LOOKS TO FAR
SOUTH WITH THE TRACK. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT
QPF, HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK. STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IN THIS PERIOD FOR MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONGER
RIDGE TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST NEAR BERMUDA. THIS WOULD HAVE
THE EFFECT OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW, PUMPING A MILDER AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION. MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES RESPOND NICELY TO
THIS PATTERN CHANGE IN THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL TAKE THE FORECAST ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE RANGE IN THIS TIMEFRAME. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOWER CHANCE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE 12Z GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. IN TERMS
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS, SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE ABUNDANT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH INSTABILITY LACKING BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. STILL A CONSIDERABLE TIME TO EXAMINE ANY
THUNDER THREAT WITH THIS COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUSTS AOB 15 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY: VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT. NW WIND GUSTS INCREASE TO 25 OR 30 KT
BY OR DURING THE AFTN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR...BUT NOT FOR
LONG.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY THEN DIMINISHING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS SHIFTING TO WEST/NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND GUSTING TO AROUND
20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: VFR, WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS SHIFTING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: POTENTIAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT ABE AND TTN. WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF MID AFTERNOON...WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ALTHO SEAS AT BUOY 44009 ARE STILL NEAR 5 FT. HWVR...AN SCA REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS...AND WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT
FOR DEL BAY...AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR OVERNIGHT WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING NW WINDS STARTING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY. NW WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT WELL OFFSHORE. SCA CONDS
WILL LIKELY CONT INTO SAT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SEAS
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH GUSTS AROUND AND JUST OVER 25 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: SUB SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY WHICH
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT TO SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS AND WIND GUSTS SHIFTING FROM WEST
TO NORTHWEST AND DECREASING BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY NIGHT.


TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SUB SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MARCH MONTHLY AVG TEMPS DEPARTURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE VALUES
THROUGH THE 26TH,  FOR PHL THATS ABOUT 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC/DRAG 632
SHORT TERM...AMC/DRAG 632
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG/GAINES 632
MARINE...AMC/DRAG/GAINES 632
CLIMATE...632




000
FXUS61 KPHI 272001
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE AND COOLER AIR IS ADVECTING
ACROSS THE AREA ON NNW LOW-LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
REMAINS TO THE W/NW ACROSS THE GRTLKS AND IS MOVING ONLY SLOWLY
SEWD. THE RESULT IS SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
WHICH IS CONTG TO BRING MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
DELMARVA AND FAR SERN NJ. THE MOSAIC RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS THAT THE
LAST BATCH OF RAIN MAY BE MOVG ACROSS CENTRAL DELMAVA AS OF MID
AFTERNOON. FOR THAT AREA WE HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE THIS EVENING AND BELOW
MENTIONABLE THRESHOLD OVERNIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS TO THE NW. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING IN
SPITE OF CONTD LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVCTN. IN FACT IT LOOKS LIKE A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGER NNW
WINDS DEVELOPING. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE MIN TEMPS
WHICH SHOULD BE ROUGHLY 10 DEG F COLDER THAN THIS MORNING.&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...BUT
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO BE MOVG ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE DECREASING AND THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE
ANY ORGANIZED UVV. HWVR...WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND SFC HEATING MAY RESULT IN SOME INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY
SOME SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS. COLD 850 MB TEMPS WOULD CERTAINLY
SUPPORT SNOW...HWVR WARMER/DRIER AIR BELOW COULD CAUSE MELTING OR
EVAPORATION BEFORE SNOW REACHES THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY FROM PHL SWD
AND EWD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY QUICK
MOVING COLD FRONTS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BY LATE IN THE WEEK, THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARMER
PATTERN WITH MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET OVERALL WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION. SETUP IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE PINE BARRENS AND ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
PA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE 20`S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 40`S
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES TO COOL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH. BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS KEEP PRECIPITATION LIGHT AND IN THE CHANCE RANGE ATTM.
LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING NORTHWEST WARRANT MIXED P-TYPE
CHANCES ATTM WITH NO WINTRY ACCUMULATION. WITH MORE CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 30`S WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. EVEN
WITH A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE TO WEST/NORTHWEST ON MONDAY, 925 MB
TEMPERATURES DON`T FALL MUCH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PEAKS OF SUN
EXISTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL GO WITH THE WARMER ECM AND MEX
GUIDANCE. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME MIXING POTENTIAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY:  A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODEL DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK OF THESE NORTHWEST
FLOW SYSTEMS DIVING SOUTHEAST OF CANADA STARTS TO VARY IN THIS
PERIOD. FAIRLY TIGHT SPREAD IN ALL GUIDANCE ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE 50`S AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE
30`S.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/UKMET ARE
SIMILAR WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CLOSE TO THE WPC PROGS. THE CMC LOOKS TO FAR
SOUTH WITH THE TRACK. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT
QPF, HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK. STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IN THIS PERIOD FOR MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONGER
RIDGE TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST NEAR BERMUDA. THIS WOULD HAVE
THE EFFECT OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW, PUMPING A MILDER AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION. MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES RESPOND NICELY TO
THIS PATTERN CHANGE IN THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL TAKE THE FORECAST ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE RANGE IN THIS TIMEFRAME. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOWER CHANCE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE 12Z GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. IN TERMS
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS, SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE ABUNDANT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH INSTABILITY LACKING BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. STILL A CONSIDERABLE TIME TO EXAMINE ANY
THUNDER THREAT WITH THIS COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE NOTED AT ALL OUR TAF SITES AS OF 300 PM EXCEPT FOR
ACY. ACY/MIV SHOULD CONT TO SEE SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL CONDS THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVING WITH VFR
BY EVENING AND CONTG OVERNIGHT. DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVG IN ON
NNW WINDS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A SECONDARY COLD SURGE
AND STRONGER NNW WINDS. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY ON
SATURDAY WITH SOME HEATING AND BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING OF MOMENTUM.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD
TEMPORARILY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR...BUT NOT FOR LONG.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: VFR, WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS SHIFTING TO WEST/NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND GUSTING TO AROUND
20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: VFR, WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS SHIFTING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: POTENTIAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT ABE AND TTN. WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF MID AFTERNOON...WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ALTHO SEAS AT BUOY 44009 ARE STILL NEAR 5 FT. HWVR...AN SCA REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS...AND WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT
FOR DEL BAY...AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR OVERNIGHT WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING NW WINDS STARTING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY. NW WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT WELL OFFSHORE. SCA CONDS
WILL LIKELY CONT INTO SAT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SEAS
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH GUSTS AROUND AND JUST OVER 25 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: SUB SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY WHICH
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT TO SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS AND WIND GUSTS SHIFTING FROM WEST
TO NORTHWEST AND DECREASING BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY NIGHT.


TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SUB SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...AMC/GAINES
MARINE...AMC/GAINES




000
FXUS61 KPHI 272001
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AND A ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE AND COOLER AIR IS ADVECTING
ACROSS THE AREA ON NNW LOW-LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
REMAINS TO THE W/NW ACROSS THE GRTLKS AND IS MOVING ONLY SLOWLY
SEWD. THE RESULT IS SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
WHICH IS CONTG TO BRING MOISTURE AND LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
DELMARVA AND FAR SERN NJ. THE MOSAIC RADAR LOOP SUGGESTS THAT THE
LAST BATCH OF RAIN MAY BE MOVG ACROSS CENTRAL DELMAVA AS OF MID
AFTERNOON. FOR THAT AREA WE HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE THIS EVENING AND BELOW
MENTIONABLE THRESHOLD OVERNIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS TO THE NW. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT COOLING IN
SPITE OF CONTD LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVCTN. IN FACT IT LOOKS LIKE A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT WITH STRONGER NNW
WINDS DEVELOPING. A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE MIN TEMPS
WHICH SHOULD BE ROUGHLY 10 DEG F COLDER THAN THIS MORNING.&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...BUT
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO BE MOVG ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE DECREASING AND THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE
ANY ORGANIZED UVV. HWVR...WITH COLD AIR ALOFT ANY BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND SFC HEATING MAY RESULT IN SOME INSTABILITY AND POSSIBLY
SOME SCATTERED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS. COLD 850 MB TEMPS WOULD CERTAINLY
SUPPORT SNOW...HWVR WARMER/DRIER AIR BELOW COULD CAUSE MELTING OR
EVAPORATION BEFORE SNOW REACHES THE GROUND...ESPECIALLY FROM PHL SWD
AND EWD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY QUICK
MOVING COLD FRONTS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION. BY LATE IN THE WEEK, THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARMER
PATTERN WITH MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: FAIRLY QUIET OVERALL WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF THE REGION. SETUP IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE PINE BARRENS AND ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
PA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE 20`S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 40`S
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES TO COOL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TRANSPORT NORTH. BOTH OF
THESE FACTORS KEEP PRECIPITATION LIGHT AND IN THE CHANCE RANGE ATTM.
LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING NORTHWEST WARRANT MIXED P-TYPE
CHANCES ATTM WITH NO WINTRY ACCUMULATION. WITH MORE CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 30`S WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. EVEN
WITH A WIND DIRECTION CHANGE TO WEST/NORTHWEST ON MONDAY, 925 MB
TEMPERATURES DON`T FALL MUCH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PEAKS OF SUN
EXISTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL GO WITH THE WARMER ECM AND MEX
GUIDANCE. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SOME MIXING POTENTIAL.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY:  A RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM. MODEL DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK OF THESE NORTHWEST
FLOW SYSTEMS DIVING SOUTHEAST OF CANADA STARTS TO VARY IN THIS
PERIOD. FAIRLY TIGHT SPREAD IN ALL GUIDANCE ON THE TEMPERATURES WITH
MOST LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE 50`S AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE
30`S.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF/UKMET ARE
SIMILAR WITH THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND CLOSE TO THE WPC PROGS. THE CMC LOOKS TO FAR
SOUTH WITH THE TRACK. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT
QPF, HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES MAY RISE LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK. STAYED CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IN THIS PERIOD FOR MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONGER
RIDGE TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST NEAR BERMUDA. THIS WOULD HAVE
THE EFFECT OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW, PUMPING A MILDER AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION. MODELED 925 MB TEMPERATURES RESPOND NICELY TO
THIS PATTERN CHANGE IN THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL TAKE THE FORECAST ON
THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE RANGE IN THIS TIMEFRAME. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER SHOWER CHANCE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE 12Z GFS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. IN TERMS
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS, SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE ABUNDANT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH INSTABILITY LACKING BUT POSSIBLY ENOUGH FOR A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER. STILL A CONSIDERABLE TIME TO EXAMINE ANY
THUNDER THREAT WITH THIS COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE NOTED AT ALL OUR TAF SITES AS OF 300 PM EXCEPT FOR
ACY. ACY/MIV SHOULD CONT TO SEE SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL CONDS THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVING WITH VFR
BY EVENING AND CONTG OVERNIGHT. DRIER/COOLER AIR WILL BE MOVG IN ON
NNW WINDS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A SECONDARY COLD SURGE
AND STRONGER NNW WINDS. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY ON
SATURDAY WITH SOME HEATING AND BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING OF MOMENTUM.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WHICH COULD
TEMPORARILY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS TO MVFR...BUT NOT FOR LONG.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: VFR, WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: SOME LOWER MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS SHIFTING TO WEST/NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND GUSTING TO AROUND
20-25 KNOTS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: VFR, WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS SHIFTING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: POTENTIAL MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT ABE AND TTN. WIND
SHIFT FROM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF MID AFTERNOON...WINDS AND SEAS APPEAR TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA
ALTHO SEAS AT BUOY 44009 ARE STILL NEAR 5 FT. HWVR...AN SCA REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS...AND WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT
FOR DEL BAY...AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLDER AIR OVERNIGHT WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING NW WINDS STARTING OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SATURDAY. NW WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT WELL OFFSHORE. SCA CONDS
WILL LIKELY CONT INTO SAT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SEAS
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH GUSTS AROUND AND JUST OVER 25 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: SUB SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUNDAY WHICH
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT TO SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: SCA SEAS AND WIND GUSTS SHIFTING FROM WEST
TO NORTHWEST AND DECREASING BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY MONDAY NIGHT.


TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SUB SCA WIND GUSTS AND SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...AMC/GAINES
MARINE...AMC/GAINES





000
FXUS61 KPHI 271437
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1037 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF MID/LATE MORNING RAIN HAS MOSTLY ENDED OVER THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR SOME SPRINKLES...PROBABLY NOT MEASURABLE. THERE IS MORE RAIN
TO THE SW OVER VA/MD WHICH WILL LIKELY CLIP DELMAVA AND SRN NJ
LATER TODAY...AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE REST OF
TODAY WITH SW FLOW AT MID/HI LEVELS...ALTHOUGH SMWHT DRIER AIR IS
COMING IN ON NNW WINDS AT LOW LEVELS.

THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL
LIMIT MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WELL BELOW YESTERDAY`S MILD
READINGS. THE MAX TEMPS FORECAST GRID WAS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MAV/MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. IT WILL USHER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE ARE FORECASTING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FOR TONIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPR TROF OVER
THE ERN CONUS ON SAT AND A SFC LOW WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST. STRONG
HIGH PRES IS LOCATED TO THE W. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MDLS AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT, BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG TROF AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PSBLY CREATING A SFC TROF AND THE STRONG
NLY TO NWLY FLOW, THERE CUD BE SOME SHWRS/SHSN TRIGGERED ACRS THE
REGION, SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS. THE BEST CHCS WUD BE CLOSEST TO
THE CST.

BY SAT NIGHT, THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND THE H5 TROF MOVES
OFF THE CST AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES TO THE S. THESE FEATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY.

THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SE ON MON WHICH ALLOWS FOR LOW PRES TO
MOVE ACRS SERN CANADA. THE ATTENDANT CDFNT FROM THIS LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATER MON AND CUD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER, MAINLY OVER
NRN AREAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
POSSIBILITIES.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUE BEFORE ANOTHER WK LOW DIVES
SEWD FOR TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY TO NRN AREAS.

FINALLY, BY THU A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACHED
THE REGION AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHCS. MDLS STILL DIFFER
ON THE TIMING, WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT A WEEK OUT.

TEMPS WILL START OUT AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NRML ON SAT,
RISE A BIT ON SUN BUT STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML
THEN RETURN TO NR NRML VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THERE
WILL BE A VERY NICE WARM UP ON MON IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP. TEMPS
MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUE BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN DURG THE MIDWEEK PD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AS OF MID/LATE MORNING...VFR CONDS ARE NOTED AT ALL OUR TAF SITES
EXCEPT MIV/ACY. SOME MVFR OR IFR CONDS ARE LIKELY THERE FOR THE
REST OF TODAY...MAINLY LOWER CIGS...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVES
ACROSS FROM THE SW. SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE ILG-PHL-TTN CORRIDOR BUT NOT ENOUGH TO AFFECT VFR CONDS.

WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE LIGHT NNW...BUT THE CHANCES FOR
GUSTINESS ARE LOOKING LESS FAVORABLE THAN EARLIER. IF GUSTS DO NOT
DEVELOP SOON THEY WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE TAFS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT SOLIDLY INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE WIND MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES INTO THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME LWR CONDS IN LOW PROB SHRA/SHSN. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

SUN - MON...VFR. N WIND VEER TOWARDS THE SW ERLY MON AND BEGIN TO
GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MON AFT. CFP MON WITH WSHFT TO WNW
OR NW. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE THIS MORNING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
ARRIVING TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE TODAY BEFORE FALLING
TO AROUND 4 FEET FOR TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY
DROP BRIEFLY BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.

WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE WILL BE ISSUING A NEW ONE THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD
AIR THAT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA WILL BE CONTINUED INTO SAT AS STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW
WILL KEEP BOTH WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED.

SAT NIGHT - TUE...POSSIBLE SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON,
WITH SOME MARGINAL GALES EVEN ON SAT NIGHT INTO ERLY SUN. THROUGH
TUESDAY. THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE TIMES FOR SCA THOUGH
THERE CUD BE SOME OTHER MORE MARGINAL EVENTS SUCH AS ON TUE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...AMC/IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271437
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1037 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF MID/LATE MORNING RAIN HAS MOSTLY ENDED OVER THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR SOME SPRINKLES...PROBABLY NOT MEASURABLE. THERE IS MORE RAIN
TO THE SW OVER VA/MD WHICH WILL LIKELY CLIP DELMAVA AND SRN NJ
LATER TODAY...AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE REST OF
TODAY WITH SW FLOW AT MID/HI LEVELS...ALTHOUGH SMWHT DRIER AIR IS
COMING IN ON NNW WINDS AT LOW LEVELS.

THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL
LIMIT MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WELL BELOW YESTERDAY`S MILD
READINGS. THE MAX TEMPS FORECAST GRID WAS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MAV/MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. IT WILL USHER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE ARE FORECASTING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FOR TONIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPR TROF OVER
THE ERN CONUS ON SAT AND A SFC LOW WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST. STRONG
HIGH PRES IS LOCATED TO THE W. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MDLS AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT, BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG TROF AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PSBLY CREATING A SFC TROF AND THE STRONG
NLY TO NWLY FLOW, THERE CUD BE SOME SHWRS/SHSN TRIGGERED ACRS THE
REGION, SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS. THE BEST CHCS WUD BE CLOSEST TO
THE CST.

BY SAT NIGHT, THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND THE H5 TROF MOVES
OFF THE CST AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES TO THE S. THESE FEATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY.

THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SE ON MON WHICH ALLOWS FOR LOW PRES TO
MOVE ACRS SERN CANADA. THE ATTENDANT CDFNT FROM THIS LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATER MON AND CUD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER, MAINLY OVER
NRN AREAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
POSSIBILITIES.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUE BEFORE ANOTHER WK LOW DIVES
SEWD FOR TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY TO NRN AREAS.

FINALLY, BY THU A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACHED
THE REGION AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHCS. MDLS STILL DIFFER
ON THE TIMING, WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT A WEEK OUT.

TEMPS WILL START OUT AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NRML ON SAT,
RISE A BIT ON SUN BUT STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML
THEN RETURN TO NR NRML VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THERE
WILL BE A VERY NICE WARM UP ON MON IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP. TEMPS
MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUE BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN DURG THE MIDWEEK PD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AS OF MID/LATE MORNING...VFR CONDS ARE NOTED AT ALL OUR TAF SITES
EXCEPT MIV/ACY. SOME MVFR OR IFR CONDS ARE LIKELY THERE FOR THE
REST OF TODAY...MAINLY LOWER CIGS...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVES
ACROSS FROM THE SW. SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE ILG-PHL-TTN CORRIDOR BUT NOT ENOUGH TO AFFECT VFR CONDS.

WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE LIGHT NNW...BUT THE CHANCES FOR
GUSTINESS ARE LOOKING LESS FAVORABLE THAN EARLIER. IF GUSTS DO NOT
DEVELOP SOON THEY WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE TAFS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT SOLIDLY INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE WIND MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES INTO THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME LWR CONDS IN LOW PROB SHRA/SHSN. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

SUN - MON...VFR. N WIND VEER TOWARDS THE SW ERLY MON AND BEGIN TO
GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MON AFT. CFP MON WITH WSHFT TO WNW
OR NW. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE THIS MORNING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
ARRIVING TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE TODAY BEFORE FALLING
TO AROUND 4 FEET FOR TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY
DROP BRIEFLY BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.

WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE WILL BE ISSUING A NEW ONE THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD
AIR THAT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA WILL BE CONTINUED INTO SAT AS STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW
WILL KEEP BOTH WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED.

SAT NIGHT - TUE...POSSIBLE SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON,
WITH SOME MARGINAL GALES EVEN ON SAT NIGHT INTO ERLY SUN. THROUGH
TUESDAY. THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE TIMES FOR SCA THOUGH
THERE CUD BE SOME OTHER MORE MARGINAL EVENTS SUCH AS ON TUE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...AMC/IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 271437
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1037 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF MID/LATE MORNING RAIN HAS MOSTLY ENDED OVER THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR SOME SPRINKLES...PROBABLY NOT MEASURABLE. THERE IS MORE RAIN
TO THE SW OVER VA/MD WHICH WILL LIKELY CLIP DELMAVA AND SRN NJ
LATER TODAY...AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE REST OF
TODAY WITH SW FLOW AT MID/HI LEVELS...ALTHOUGH SMWHT DRIER AIR IS
COMING IN ON NNW WINDS AT LOW LEVELS.

THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL
LIMIT MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WELL BELOW YESTERDAY`S MILD
READINGS. THE MAX TEMPS FORECAST GRID WAS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MAV/MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. IT WILL USHER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE ARE FORECASTING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FOR TONIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPR TROF OVER
THE ERN CONUS ON SAT AND A SFC LOW WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST. STRONG
HIGH PRES IS LOCATED TO THE W. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MDLS AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT, BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG TROF AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PSBLY CREATING A SFC TROF AND THE STRONG
NLY TO NWLY FLOW, THERE CUD BE SOME SHWRS/SHSN TRIGGERED ACRS THE
REGION, SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS. THE BEST CHCS WUD BE CLOSEST TO
THE CST.

BY SAT NIGHT, THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND THE H5 TROF MOVES
OFF THE CST AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES TO THE S. THESE FEATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY.

THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SE ON MON WHICH ALLOWS FOR LOW PRES TO
MOVE ACRS SERN CANADA. THE ATTENDANT CDFNT FROM THIS LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATER MON AND CUD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER, MAINLY OVER
NRN AREAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
POSSIBILITIES.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUE BEFORE ANOTHER WK LOW DIVES
SEWD FOR TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY TO NRN AREAS.

FINALLY, BY THU A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACHED
THE REGION AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHCS. MDLS STILL DIFFER
ON THE TIMING, WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT A WEEK OUT.

TEMPS WILL START OUT AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NRML ON SAT,
RISE A BIT ON SUN BUT STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML
THEN RETURN TO NR NRML VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THERE
WILL BE A VERY NICE WARM UP ON MON IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP. TEMPS
MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUE BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN DURG THE MIDWEEK PD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AS OF MID/LATE MORNING...VFR CONDS ARE NOTED AT ALL OUR TAF SITES
EXCEPT MIV/ACY. SOME MVFR OR IFR CONDS ARE LIKELY THERE FOR THE
REST OF TODAY...MAINLY LOWER CIGS...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVES
ACROSS FROM THE SW. SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE ILG-PHL-TTN CORRIDOR BUT NOT ENOUGH TO AFFECT VFR CONDS.

WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE LIGHT NNW...BUT THE CHANCES FOR
GUSTINESS ARE LOOKING LESS FAVORABLE THAN EARLIER. IF GUSTS DO NOT
DEVELOP SOON THEY WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE TAFS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT SOLIDLY INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE WIND MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES INTO THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME LWR CONDS IN LOW PROB SHRA/SHSN. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

SUN - MON...VFR. N WIND VEER TOWARDS THE SW ERLY MON AND BEGIN TO
GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MON AFT. CFP MON WITH WSHFT TO WNW
OR NW. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE THIS MORNING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
ARRIVING TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE TODAY BEFORE FALLING
TO AROUND 4 FEET FOR TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY
DROP BRIEFLY BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.

WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE WILL BE ISSUING A NEW ONE THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD
AIR THAT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA WILL BE CONTINUED INTO SAT AS STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW
WILL KEEP BOTH WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED.

SAT NIGHT - TUE...POSSIBLE SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON,
WITH SOME MARGINAL GALES EVEN ON SAT NIGHT INTO ERLY SUN. THROUGH
TUESDAY. THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE TIMES FOR SCA THOUGH
THERE CUD BE SOME OTHER MORE MARGINAL EVENTS SUCH AS ON TUE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...AMC/IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 271437
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1037 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF MID/LATE MORNING RAIN HAS MOSTLY ENDED OVER THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR SOME SPRINKLES...PROBABLY NOT MEASURABLE. THERE IS MORE RAIN
TO THE SW OVER VA/MD WHICH WILL LIKELY CLIP DELMAVA AND SRN NJ
LATER TODAY...AS SUGGESTED BY LATEST RAP AND HRRR GUIDANCE. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE REST OF
TODAY WITH SW FLOW AT MID/HI LEVELS...ALTHOUGH SMWHT DRIER AIR IS
COMING IN ON NNW WINDS AT LOW LEVELS.

THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDY SKIES WILL
LIMIT MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WELL BELOW YESTERDAY`S MILD
READINGS. THE MAX TEMPS FORECAST GRID WAS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD
SLIGHTLY ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MAV/MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. IT WILL USHER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE ARE FORECASTING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FOR TONIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPR TROF OVER
THE ERN CONUS ON SAT AND A SFC LOW WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST. STRONG
HIGH PRES IS LOCATED TO THE W. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MDLS AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT, BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG TROF AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PSBLY CREATING A SFC TROF AND THE STRONG
NLY TO NWLY FLOW, THERE CUD BE SOME SHWRS/SHSN TRIGGERED ACRS THE
REGION, SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS. THE BEST CHCS WUD BE CLOSEST TO
THE CST.

BY SAT NIGHT, THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND THE H5 TROF MOVES
OFF THE CST AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES TO THE S. THESE FEATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY.

THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SE ON MON WHICH ALLOWS FOR LOW PRES TO
MOVE ACRS SERN CANADA. THE ATTENDANT CDFNT FROM THIS LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATER MON AND CUD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER, MAINLY OVER
NRN AREAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
POSSIBILITIES.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUE BEFORE ANOTHER WK LOW DIVES
SEWD FOR TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY TO NRN AREAS.

FINALLY, BY THU A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACHED
THE REGION AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHCS. MDLS STILL DIFFER
ON THE TIMING, WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT A WEEK OUT.

TEMPS WILL START OUT AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NRML ON SAT,
RISE A BIT ON SUN BUT STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML
THEN RETURN TO NR NRML VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THERE
WILL BE A VERY NICE WARM UP ON MON IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP. TEMPS
MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUE BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN DURG THE MIDWEEK PD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AS OF MID/LATE MORNING...VFR CONDS ARE NOTED AT ALL OUR TAF SITES
EXCEPT MIV/ACY. SOME MVFR OR IFR CONDS ARE LIKELY THERE FOR THE
REST OF TODAY...MAINLY LOWER CIGS...AS SOME LIGHT RAIN MOVES
ACROSS FROM THE SW. SOME SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE ILG-PHL-TTN CORRIDOR BUT NOT ENOUGH TO AFFECT VFR CONDS.

WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE LIGHT NNW...BUT THE CHANCES FOR
GUSTINESS ARE LOOKING LESS FAVORABLE THAN EARLIER. IF GUSTS DO NOT
DEVELOP SOON THEY WILL BE REMOVED FROM THE TAFS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT SOLIDLY INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE WIND MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES INTO THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME LWR CONDS IN LOW PROB SHRA/SHSN. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

SUN - MON...VFR. N WIND VEER TOWARDS THE SW ERLY MON AND BEGIN TO
GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MON AFT. CFP MON WITH WSHFT TO WNW
OR NW. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE THIS MORNING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
ARRIVING TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE TODAY BEFORE FALLING
TO AROUND 4 FEET FOR TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY
DROP BRIEFLY BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.

WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE WILL BE ISSUING A NEW ONE THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD
AIR THAT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA WILL BE CONTINUED INTO SAT AS STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW
WILL KEEP BOTH WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED.

SAT NIGHT - TUE...POSSIBLE SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON,
WITH SOME MARGINAL GALES EVEN ON SAT NIGHT INTO ERLY SUN. THROUGH
TUESDAY. THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE TIMES FOR SCA THOUGH
THERE CUD BE SOME OTHER MORE MARGINAL EVENTS SUCH AS ON TUE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...AMC/IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271018
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
618 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN EXTENDED FROM WESTERN AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA UP INTO OUR
REGION AT 63O AM. THE AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. A
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL STAY WELL TO OUR WEST TODAY, SO THE STEERING
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT, THE BACK EDGE
OF THE RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OUR REGION AS LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE ON THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AT THAT LEVEL.

WE ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO END EARLY THIS MORNING IN
BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE POCONOS. THE RAIN SHOULD
COME TO AN END ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS. PERIODS OF RAIN MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WE WILL SEE A BRIEF
CHANGE TO SNOW IN PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, MAINLY IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN, JUST AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO COME TO
END.THE TIMING SHOULD NOT PERMIT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION, PERHAPS A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN SPOTS. THE IMPACT OF THE LIGHT SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY EVEN AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. IT WILL USHER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE ARE FORECASTING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FOR TONIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPR TROF OVER
THE ERN CONUS ON SAT AND A SFC LOW WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST. STRONG
HIGH PRES IS LOCATED TO THE W. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MDLS AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT, BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG TROF AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PSBLY CREATING A SFC TROF AND THE STRONG
NLY TO NWLY FLOW, THERE CUD BE SOME SHWRS/SHSN TRIGGERED ACRS THE
REGION, SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS. THE BEST CHCS WUD BE CLOSEST TO
THE CST.

BY SAT NIGHT, THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND THE H5 TROF MOVES
OFF THE CST AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES TO THE S. THESE FEATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY.

THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SE ON MON WHICH ALLOWS FOR LOW PRES TO
MOVE ACRS SERN CANADA. THE ATTENDANT CDFNT FROM THIS LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATER MON AND CUD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER, MAINLY OVER
NRN AREAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
POSSIBILITIES.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUE BEFORE ANOTHER WK LOW DIVES
SEWD FOR TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY TO NRN AREAS.

FINALLY, BY THU A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACHED
THE REGION AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHCS. MDLS STILL DIFFER
ON THE TIMING, WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT A WEEK OUT.

TEMPS WILL START OUT AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NRML ON SAT,
RISE A BIT ON SUN BUT STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML
THEN RETURN TO NR NRML VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THERE
WILL BE A VERY NICE WARM UP ON MON IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP. TEMPS
MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUE BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN DURG THE MIDWEEK PD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS RAIN CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING. THE RAIN WAS
ENDING AT KRDG AND KABE AROUND 1000Z. THE RAIN SHOULD END AT KILG,
KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN BY ABOUT 1400Z. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KMIV AND KACY AND IT SHOULD END THERE AROUND
1900Z TO 2100Z.

DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT SOLIDLY INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE WIND MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES INTO THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME LWR CONDS IN LOW PROB SHRA/SHSN. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

SUN - MON...VFR. N WIND VEER TOWARDS THE SW ERLY MON AND BEGIN TO
GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MON AFT. CFP MON WITH WSHFT TO WNW
OR NW. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE THIS MORNING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
ARRIVING TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE TODAY BEFORE FALLING
TO AROUND 4 FEET FOR TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY
DROP BRIEFLY BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.

WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE WILL BE ISSUING A NEW ONE THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD
AIR THAT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA WILL BE CONTINUED INTO SAT AS STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW
WILL KEEP BOTH WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED.

SAT NIGHT - TUE...POSSIBLE SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON,
WITH SOME MARGINAL GALES EVEN ON SAT NIGHT INTO ERLY SUN. THROUGH
TUESDAY. THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE TIMES FOR SCA THOUGH
THERE CUD BE SOME OTHER MORE MARGINAL EVENTS SUCH AS ON TUE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271018
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
618 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN EXTENDED FROM WESTERN AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA UP INTO OUR
REGION AT 63O AM. THE AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. A
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL STAY WELL TO OUR WEST TODAY, SO THE STEERING
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT, THE BACK EDGE
OF THE RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OUR REGION AS LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE ON THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AT THAT LEVEL.

WE ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO END EARLY THIS MORNING IN
BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE POCONOS. THE RAIN SHOULD
COME TO AN END ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS. PERIODS OF RAIN MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WE WILL SEE A BRIEF
CHANGE TO SNOW IN PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, MAINLY IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN, JUST AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO COME TO
END.THE TIMING SHOULD NOT PERMIT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION, PERHAPS A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN SPOTS. THE IMPACT OF THE LIGHT SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY EVEN AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. IT WILL USHER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE ARE FORECASTING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FOR TONIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPR TROF OVER
THE ERN CONUS ON SAT AND A SFC LOW WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST. STRONG
HIGH PRES IS LOCATED TO THE W. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MDLS AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT, BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG TROF AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PSBLY CREATING A SFC TROF AND THE STRONG
NLY TO NWLY FLOW, THERE CUD BE SOME SHWRS/SHSN TRIGGERED ACRS THE
REGION, SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS. THE BEST CHCS WUD BE CLOSEST TO
THE CST.

BY SAT NIGHT, THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND THE H5 TROF MOVES
OFF THE CST AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES TO THE S. THESE FEATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY.

THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SE ON MON WHICH ALLOWS FOR LOW PRES TO
MOVE ACRS SERN CANADA. THE ATTENDANT CDFNT FROM THIS LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATER MON AND CUD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER, MAINLY OVER
NRN AREAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
POSSIBILITIES.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUE BEFORE ANOTHER WK LOW DIVES
SEWD FOR TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY TO NRN AREAS.

FINALLY, BY THU A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACHED
THE REGION AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHCS. MDLS STILL DIFFER
ON THE TIMING, WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT A WEEK OUT.

TEMPS WILL START OUT AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NRML ON SAT,
RISE A BIT ON SUN BUT STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML
THEN RETURN TO NR NRML VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THERE
WILL BE A VERY NICE WARM UP ON MON IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP. TEMPS
MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUE BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN DURG THE MIDWEEK PD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS RAIN CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING. THE RAIN WAS
ENDING AT KRDG AND KABE AROUND 1000Z. THE RAIN SHOULD END AT KILG,
KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN BY ABOUT 1400Z. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KMIV AND KACY AND IT SHOULD END THERE AROUND
1900Z TO 2100Z.

DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT SOLIDLY INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE WIND MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES INTO THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME LWR CONDS IN LOW PROB SHRA/SHSN. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

SUN - MON...VFR. N WIND VEER TOWARDS THE SW ERLY MON AND BEGIN TO
GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MON AFT. CFP MON WITH WSHFT TO WNW
OR NW. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE THIS MORNING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
ARRIVING TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE TODAY BEFORE FALLING
TO AROUND 4 FEET FOR TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY
DROP BRIEFLY BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.

WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE WILL BE ISSUING A NEW ONE THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD
AIR THAT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA WILL BE CONTINUED INTO SAT AS STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW
WILL KEEP BOTH WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED.

SAT NIGHT - TUE...POSSIBLE SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON,
WITH SOME MARGINAL GALES EVEN ON SAT NIGHT INTO ERLY SUN. THROUGH
TUESDAY. THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE TIMES FOR SCA THOUGH
THERE CUD BE SOME OTHER MORE MARGINAL EVENTS SUCH AS ON TUE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 271018
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
618 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN EXTENDED FROM WESTERN AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA UP INTO OUR
REGION AT 63O AM. THE AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. A
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL STAY WELL TO OUR WEST TODAY, SO THE STEERING
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT, THE BACK EDGE
OF THE RAIN WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH OUR REGION AS LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE ON THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AT THAT LEVEL.

WE ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO END EARLY THIS MORNING IN
BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE POCONOS. THE RAIN SHOULD
COME TO AN END ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS. PERIODS OF RAIN MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WE WILL SEE A BRIEF
CHANGE TO SNOW IN PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, MAINLY IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN, JUST AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO COME TO
END.THE TIMING SHOULD NOT PERMIT MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION, PERHAPS A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN SPOTS. THE IMPACT OF THE LIGHT SNOW IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY EVEN AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. IT WILL USHER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
DRY AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE ARE FORECASTING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FOR TONIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPR TROF OVER
THE ERN CONUS ON SAT AND A SFC LOW WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST. STRONG
HIGH PRES IS LOCATED TO THE W. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MDLS AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT, BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG TROF AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PSBLY CREATING A SFC TROF AND THE STRONG
NLY TO NWLY FLOW, THERE CUD BE SOME SHWRS/SHSN TRIGGERED ACRS THE
REGION, SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS. THE BEST CHCS WUD BE CLOSEST TO
THE CST.

BY SAT NIGHT, THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND THE H5 TROF MOVES
OFF THE CST AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES TO THE S. THESE FEATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY.

THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SE ON MON WHICH ALLOWS FOR LOW PRES TO
MOVE ACRS SERN CANADA. THE ATTENDANT CDFNT FROM THIS LOW WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATER MON AND CUD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER, MAINLY OVER
NRN AREAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
POSSIBILITIES.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUE BEFORE ANOTHER WK LOW DIVES
SEWD FOR TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY TO NRN AREAS.

FINALLY, BY THU A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACHED
THE REGION AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHCS. MDLS STILL DIFFER
ON THE TIMING, WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT A WEEK OUT.

TEMPS WILL START OUT AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NRML ON SAT,
RISE A BIT ON SUN BUT STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML
THEN RETURN TO NR NRML VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THERE
WILL BE A VERY NICE WARM UP ON MON IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP. TEMPS
MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUE BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN DURG THE MIDWEEK PD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS RAIN CONTINUES TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING. THE RAIN WAS
ENDING AT KRDG AND KABE AROUND 1000Z. THE RAIN SHOULD END AT KILG,
KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN BY ABOUT 1400Z. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KMIV AND KACY AND IT SHOULD END THERE AROUND
1900Z TO 2100Z.

DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT SOLIDLY INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE WIND MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES INTO THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME LWR CONDS IN LOW PROB SHRA/SHSN. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

SUN - MON...VFR. N WIND VEER TOWARDS THE SW ERLY MON AND BEGIN TO
GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MON AFT. CFP MON WITH WSHFT TO WNW
OR NW. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE THIS MORNING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR
ARRIVING TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE TODAY BEFORE FALLING
TO AROUND 4 FEET FOR TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY
DROP BRIEFLY BELOW THE CRITERIA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.

WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE WILL BE ISSUING A NEW ONE THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD
AIR THAT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA WILL BE CONTINUED INTO SAT AS STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW
WILL KEEP BOTH WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED.

SAT NIGHT - TUE...POSSIBLE SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON,
WITH SOME MARGINAL GALES EVEN ON SAT NIGHT INTO ERLY SUN. THROUGH
TUESDAY. THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE TIMES FOR SCA THOUGH
THERE CUD BE SOME OTHER MORE MARGINAL EVENTS SUCH AS ON TUE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 270744
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN EXTENDED FROM WESTERN AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA UP INTO OUR REGION
AT 33O AM. THE AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL STAY WELL TO OUR WEST TODAY, SO THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT, THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION
AS LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW AT THAT LEVEL.

WE ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO END EARLY THIS MORNING IN BERKS
COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE POCONOS. THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO
AN END ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WE WILL SEE A CHANGE TO
SNOW IN PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS
TO COME TO END THERE. THE TIMING SHOULD NOT PERMIT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION, PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN SPOTS. THE IMPACT
OF THE LIGHT SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY EVEN AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. IT WILL USHER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD DRY
AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE ARE FORECASTING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FOR TONIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPR TROF OVER
THE ERN CONUS ON SAT AND A SFC LOW WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST. STRONG
HIGH PRES IS LOCATED TO THE W. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MDLS AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT, BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG TROF AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PSBLY CREATING A SFC TROF AND THE STRONG
NLY TO NWLY FLOW, THERE CUD BE SOME SHWRS/SHSN TRIGGERED ACRS THE
REGION, SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS. THE BEST CHCS WUD BE CLOSEST TO
THE CST.

BY SAT NIGHT, THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND THE H5 TROF MOVES
OFF THE CST AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES TO THE S. THESE FEATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY.

THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SE ON MON WHICH ALLOWS FOR LOW PRES TO MOVE
ACRS SERN CANADA. THE ATTENDANT CDFNT FROM THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATER MON AND CUD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER, MAINLY OVER NRN
AREAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE POSSIBILITIES.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUE BEFORE ANOTHER WK LOW DIVES
SEWD FOR TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY TO NRN AREAS.

FINALLY, BY THU A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACHED
THE REGION AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHCS. MDLS STILL DIFFER
ON THE TIMING, WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT A WEEK OUT.

TEMPS WILL START OUT AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NRML ON SAT,
RISE A BIT ON SUN BUT STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML
THEN RETURN TO NR NRML VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THERE
WILL BE A VERY NICE WARM UP ON MON IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP. TEMPS
MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUE BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN DURG THE MIDWEEK PD.



&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS FORECAST
TO END AT KRDG AND KABE AROUND 1100Z. THE RAIN SHOULD END AT KILG,
KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN ABOUT 1400Z. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON AT KMIV AND KACY AND IT SHOULD END THERE AROUND 1800Z
TO 2000Z.

DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT SOLIDLY INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE WIND MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THIS EVENING.


OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME LWR CONDS IN LOW PROB SHRA/SHSN. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

SUN - MON...VFR. N WIND VEER TOWARDS THE SW ERLY MON AND BEGIN TO
GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MON AFT. CFP MON WITH WSHFT TO WNW
OR NW. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE THIS MORNING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVING
TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 4
FEET FOR TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY DROP BRIEFLY BELOW THE
CRITERIA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.

WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE WILL BE ISSUING A NEW ONE THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR
THAT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA WILL BE CONTINUED INTO SAT AS STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW WILL
KEEP BOTH WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED.

SAT NIGHT - TUE...POSSIBLE SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON,
WITH SOME MARGINAL GALES EVEN ON SAT NIGHT INTO ERLY SUN. THROUGH
TUESDAY. THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE TIMES FOR SCA THOUGH
THERE CUD BE SOME OTHER MORE MARGINAL EVENTS SUCH AS ON TUE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 270744
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN EXTENDED FROM WESTERN AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA UP INTO OUR REGION
AT 33O AM. THE AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL STAY WELL TO OUR WEST TODAY, SO THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT, THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION
AS LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW AT THAT LEVEL.

WE ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO END EARLY THIS MORNING IN BERKS
COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE POCONOS. THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO
AN END ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WE WILL SEE A CHANGE TO
SNOW IN PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS
TO COME TO END THERE. THE TIMING SHOULD NOT PERMIT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION, PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN SPOTS. THE IMPACT
OF THE LIGHT SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY EVEN AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. IT WILL USHER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD DRY
AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE ARE FORECASTING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FOR TONIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPR TROF OVER
THE ERN CONUS ON SAT AND A SFC LOW WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST. STRONG
HIGH PRES IS LOCATED TO THE W. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MDLS AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT, BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG TROF AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PSBLY CREATING A SFC TROF AND THE STRONG
NLY TO NWLY FLOW, THERE CUD BE SOME SHWRS/SHSN TRIGGERED ACRS THE
REGION, SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS. THE BEST CHCS WUD BE CLOSEST TO
THE CST.

BY SAT NIGHT, THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND THE H5 TROF MOVES
OFF THE CST AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES TO THE S. THESE FEATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY.

THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SE ON MON WHICH ALLOWS FOR LOW PRES TO MOVE
ACRS SERN CANADA. THE ATTENDANT CDFNT FROM THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATER MON AND CUD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER, MAINLY OVER NRN
AREAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE POSSIBILITIES.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUE BEFORE ANOTHER WK LOW DIVES
SEWD FOR TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY TO NRN AREAS.

FINALLY, BY THU A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACHED
THE REGION AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHCS. MDLS STILL DIFFER
ON THE TIMING, WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT A WEEK OUT.

TEMPS WILL START OUT AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NRML ON SAT,
RISE A BIT ON SUN BUT STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML
THEN RETURN TO NR NRML VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THERE
WILL BE A VERY NICE WARM UP ON MON IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP. TEMPS
MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUE BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN DURG THE MIDWEEK PD.



&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS FORECAST
TO END AT KRDG AND KABE AROUND 1100Z. THE RAIN SHOULD END AT KILG,
KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN ABOUT 1400Z. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON AT KMIV AND KACY AND IT SHOULD END THERE AROUND 1800Z
TO 2000Z.

DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT SOLIDLY INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE WIND MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THIS EVENING.


OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME LWR CONDS IN LOW PROB SHRA/SHSN. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

SUN - MON...VFR. N WIND VEER TOWARDS THE SW ERLY MON AND BEGIN TO
GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MON AFT. CFP MON WITH WSHFT TO WNW
OR NW. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE THIS MORNING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVING
TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 4
FEET FOR TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY DROP BRIEFLY BELOW THE
CRITERIA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.

WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE WILL BE ISSUING A NEW ONE THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR
THAT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA WILL BE CONTINUED INTO SAT AS STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW WILL
KEEP BOTH WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED.

SAT NIGHT - TUE...POSSIBLE SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON,
WITH SOME MARGINAL GALES EVEN ON SAT NIGHT INTO ERLY SUN. THROUGH
TUESDAY. THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE TIMES FOR SCA THOUGH
THERE CUD BE SOME OTHER MORE MARGINAL EVENTS SUCH AS ON TUE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270744
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN EXTENDED FROM WESTERN AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA UP INTO OUR REGION
AT 33O AM. THE AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL STAY WELL TO OUR WEST TODAY, SO THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT, THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION
AS LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW AT THAT LEVEL.

WE ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO END EARLY THIS MORNING IN BERKS
COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE POCONOS. THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO
AN END ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WE WILL SEE A CHANGE TO
SNOW IN PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS
TO COME TO END THERE. THE TIMING SHOULD NOT PERMIT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION, PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN SPOTS. THE IMPACT
OF THE LIGHT SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY EVEN AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. IT WILL USHER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD DRY
AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE ARE FORECASTING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FOR TONIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPR TROF OVER
THE ERN CONUS ON SAT AND A SFC LOW WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST. STRONG
HIGH PRES IS LOCATED TO THE W. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MDLS AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT, BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG TROF AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PSBLY CREATING A SFC TROF AND THE STRONG
NLY TO NWLY FLOW, THERE CUD BE SOME SHWRS/SHSN TRIGGERED ACRS THE
REGION, SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS. THE BEST CHCS WUD BE CLOSEST TO
THE CST.

BY SAT NIGHT, THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND THE H5 TROF MOVES
OFF THE CST AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES TO THE S. THESE FEATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY.

THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SE ON MON WHICH ALLOWS FOR LOW PRES TO MOVE
ACRS SERN CANADA. THE ATTENDANT CDFNT FROM THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATER MON AND CUD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER, MAINLY OVER NRN
AREAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE POSSIBILITIES.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUE BEFORE ANOTHER WK LOW DIVES
SEWD FOR TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY TO NRN AREAS.

FINALLY, BY THU A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACHED
THE REGION AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHCS. MDLS STILL DIFFER
ON THE TIMING, WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT A WEEK OUT.

TEMPS WILL START OUT AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NRML ON SAT,
RISE A BIT ON SUN BUT STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML
THEN RETURN TO NR NRML VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THERE
WILL BE A VERY NICE WARM UP ON MON IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP. TEMPS
MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUE BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN DURG THE MIDWEEK PD.



&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS FORECAST
TO END AT KRDG AND KABE AROUND 1100Z. THE RAIN SHOULD END AT KILG,
KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN ABOUT 1400Z. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON AT KMIV AND KACY AND IT SHOULD END THERE AROUND 1800Z
TO 2000Z.

DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT SOLIDLY INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE WIND MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THIS EVENING.


OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME LWR CONDS IN LOW PROB SHRA/SHSN. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

SUN - MON...VFR. N WIND VEER TOWARDS THE SW ERLY MON AND BEGIN TO
GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MON AFT. CFP MON WITH WSHFT TO WNW
OR NW. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE THIS MORNING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVING
TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 4
FEET FOR TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY DROP BRIEFLY BELOW THE
CRITERIA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.

WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE WILL BE ISSUING A NEW ONE THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR
THAT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA WILL BE CONTINUED INTO SAT AS STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW WILL
KEEP BOTH WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED.

SAT NIGHT - TUE...POSSIBLE SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON,
WITH SOME MARGINAL GALES EVEN ON SAT NIGHT INTO ERLY SUN. THROUGH
TUESDAY. THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE TIMES FOR SCA THOUGH
THERE CUD BE SOME OTHER MORE MARGINAL EVENTS SUCH AS ON TUE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270744
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE IN AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAIN EXTENDED FROM WESTERN AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA UP INTO OUR REGION
AT 33O AM. THE AREA OF RAIN WAS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. A MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL STAY WELL TO OUR WEST TODAY, SO THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT, THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN
WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR REGION
AS LOW LEVEL DRYING TAKES PLACE ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW AT THAT LEVEL.

WE ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO END EARLY THIS MORNING IN BERKS
COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE POCONOS. THE RAIN SHOULD COME TO
AN END ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS. RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WE WILL SEE A CHANGE TO
SNOW IN PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS
TO COME TO END THERE. THE TIMING SHOULD NOT PERMIT MUCH SNOW
ACCUMULATION, PERHAPS A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH IN SPOTS. THE IMPACT
OF THE LIGHT SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY EVEN AFTER THE
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH OUR AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. IT WILL USHER A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD DRY
AIR INTO OUR REGION. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH IT. WE ARE FORECASTING VARIABLE CLOUD COVER FOR
TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH FOR TONIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 20S IN THE NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S ELSEWHERE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PD STARTS OUT WITH A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPR TROF OVER
THE ERN CONUS ON SAT AND A SFC LOW WELL OFF THE ATLC COAST. STRONG
HIGH PRES IS LOCATED TO THE W. THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE MDLS AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT, BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
TRENDED LOWER. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG TROF AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW PSBLY CREATING A SFC TROF AND THE STRONG
NLY TO NWLY FLOW, THERE CUD BE SOME SHWRS/SHSN TRIGGERED ACRS THE
REGION, SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS. THE BEST CHCS WUD BE CLOSEST TO
THE CST.

BY SAT NIGHT, THE LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND THE H5 TROF MOVES
OFF THE CST AS THE HIGH PRES SETTLES TO THE S. THESE FEATURES WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY.

THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER SE ON MON WHICH ALLOWS FOR LOW PRES TO MOVE
ACRS SERN CANADA. THE ATTENDANT CDFNT FROM THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATER MON AND CUD TOUCH OFF A SHOWER, MAINLY OVER NRN
AREAS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE POSSIBILITIES.

HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS BACK IN FOR TUE BEFORE ANOTHER WK LOW DIVES
SEWD FOR TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED. THIS LOW LOOKS TO BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP MAINLY TO NRN AREAS.

FINALLY, BY THU A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACHED
THE REGION AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHCS. MDLS STILL DIFFER
ON THE TIMING, WHICH CAN BE EXPECTED AT A WEEK OUT.

TEMPS WILL START OUT AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NRML ON SAT,
RISE A BIT ON SUN BUT STILL REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML
THEN RETURN TO NR NRML VALUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. THERE
WILL BE A VERY NICE WARM UP ON MON IN ADVANCE OF THE CFP. TEMPS
MAY BE KNOCKED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON TUE BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE CLIMBING AGAIN DURG THE MIDWEEK PD.



&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS MORNING. THE RAIN IS FORECAST
TO END AT KRDG AND KABE AROUND 1100Z. THE RAIN SHOULD END AT KILG,
KPHL, KPNE AND KTTN ABOUT 1400Z. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO
THE AFTERNOON AT KMIV AND KACY AND IT SHOULD END THERE AROUND 1800Z
TO 2000Z.

DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT SOLIDLY INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE WIND MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AND INTO THIS EVENING.


OUTLOOK...
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SOME LWR CONDS IN LOW PROB SHRA/SHSN. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

SUN - MON...VFR. N WIND VEER TOWARDS THE SW ERLY MON AND BEGIN TO
GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE MON AFT. CFP MON WITH WSHFT TO WNW
OR NW. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE THIS MORNING WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVING
TONIGHT. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THERE MAY BE GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO AROUND 4
FEET FOR TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT, EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY DROP BRIEFLY BELOW THE
CRITERIA FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.

WE HAVE DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY.
HOWEVER, WE WILL BE ISSUING A NEW ONE THAT BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR
THAT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...SCA WILL BE CONTINUED INTO SAT AS STRONG N TO NWLY FLOW WILL
KEEP BOTH WIND AND SEAS ELEVATED.

SAT NIGHT - TUE...POSSIBLE SCA CONDS SAT NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON,
WITH SOME MARGINAL GALES EVEN ON SAT NIGHT INTO ERLY SUN. THROUGH
TUESDAY. THESE LOOK TO BE THE MOST PROBABLE TIMES FOR SCA THOUGH
THERE CUD BE SOME OTHER MORE MARGINAL EVENTS SUCH AS ON TUE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 270444
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1244 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AT 1230 AM.
THE BOUNDARY HAD JUST PASSED FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN DELAWARE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA, AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN, CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE SHOWERS WERE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD.

A NARROW BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY, ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE POCONOS TO THE
CATSKILLS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS LOCATED OVER VIRGINIA WILL
BUILD UP INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT AND THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME ICE IN
PARTS OF BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY. SNOW AND ICE TOTALS SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH OF AN ACCUMULATION IN SPOTS TO CREATE SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW
OR PERHAPS A TRACE AMOUNT OF ICE. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
60 IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE AT 1230 AM. READINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
30S IN OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES AND INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN THE SOUTH BY DAYBREAK. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE
PELLETS OR WET SNOW AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON-
GOING AT THAT TIME, WHICH AM EXPECTING. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE AFTN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE EAST OF
THE VA CAPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED
TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST
WINDS MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT
MUCH BLOCKING WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING
TO COMBAT ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE
STRONGER DYNAMIC COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS
OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
ABLE TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY
SEASON TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT
DEAL IN MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE
INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE
NIGHT. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND KRDG AND KABE AFTER
ABOUT 0800Z WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT MAINLY INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY MAY
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS,
ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN FRONT AT
22Z FRIDAY.

WINDS SHIFTED TO NW WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL
GUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE GENERALLY AROUND 2
TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING
BUT COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON
MONDAY EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEFNERNEAR TERM...IOVINO SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA
LONG TERM...HEFNER AVIATION...HEFNER/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/HEFNER/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270444
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1244 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AT 1230 AM.
THE BOUNDARY HAD JUST PASSED FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN DELAWARE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA, AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN, CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE SHOWERS WERE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD.

A NARROW BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY, ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE POCONOS TO THE
CATSKILLS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS LOCATED OVER VIRGINIA WILL
BUILD UP INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT AND THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME ICE IN
PARTS OF BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY. SNOW AND ICE TOTALS SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH OF AN ACCUMULATION IN SPOTS TO CREATE SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW
OR PERHAPS A TRACE AMOUNT OF ICE. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
60 IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE AT 1230 AM. READINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
30S IN OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES AND INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN THE SOUTH BY DAYBREAK. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE
PELLETS OR WET SNOW AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON-
GOING AT THAT TIME, WHICH AM EXPECTING. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE AFTN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE EAST OF
THE VA CAPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED
TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST
WINDS MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT
MUCH BLOCKING WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING
TO COMBAT ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE
STRONGER DYNAMIC COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS
OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
ABLE TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY
SEASON TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT
DEAL IN MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE
INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE
NIGHT. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND KRDG AND KABE AFTER
ABOUT 0800Z WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT MAINLY INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY MAY
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS,
ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN FRONT AT
22Z FRIDAY.

WINDS SHIFTED TO NW WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL
GUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE GENERALLY AROUND 2
TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING
BUT COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON
MONDAY EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEFNERNEAR TERM...IOVINO SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA
LONG TERM...HEFNER AVIATION...HEFNER/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/HEFNER/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270444
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1244 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AT 1230 AM.
THE BOUNDARY HAD JUST PASSED FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN DELAWARE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA, AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN, CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE SHOWERS WERE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD.

A NARROW BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY, ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE POCONOS TO THE
CATSKILLS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS LOCATED OVER VIRGINIA WILL
BUILD UP INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT AND THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME ICE IN
PARTS OF BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY. SNOW AND ICE TOTALS SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH OF AN ACCUMULATION IN SPOTS TO CREATE SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW
OR PERHAPS A TRACE AMOUNT OF ICE. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
60 IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE AT 1230 AM. READINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
30S IN OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES AND INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN THE SOUTH BY DAYBREAK. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE
PELLETS OR WET SNOW AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON-
GOING AT THAT TIME, WHICH AM EXPECTING. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE AFTN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE EAST OF
THE VA CAPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED
TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST
WINDS MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT
MUCH BLOCKING WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING
TO COMBAT ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE
STRONGER DYNAMIC COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS
OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
ABLE TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY
SEASON TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT
DEAL IN MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE
INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE
NIGHT. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND KRDG AND KABE AFTER
ABOUT 0800Z WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT MAINLY INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY MAY
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS,
ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN FRONT AT
22Z FRIDAY.

WINDS SHIFTED TO NW WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL
GUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE GENERALLY AROUND 2
TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING
BUT COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON
MONDAY EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEFNERNEAR TERM...IOVINO SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA
LONG TERM...HEFNER AVIATION...HEFNER/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/HEFNER/MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 270444
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1244 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEPT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE
SATURDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AT 1230 AM.
THE BOUNDARY HAD JUST PASSED FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND CENTRAL AND NORTHERN DELAWARE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA, AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN, CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY. THE SHOWERS WERE
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD.

A NARROW BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
RIVER VALLEY, ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND THE POCONOS TO THE
CATSKILLS. ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS LOCATED OVER VIRGINIA WILL
BUILD UP INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT.

COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT AND THE
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW AND PERHAPS SOME ICE IN
PARTS OF BERKS COUNTY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY. SNOW AND ICE TOTALS SHOULD BE LIMITED. HOWEVER, THERE
COULD BE ENOUGH OF AN ACCUMULATION IN SPOTS TO CREATE SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS. SOME LOCATIONS MAY RECEIVE UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW
OR PERHAPS A TRACE AMOUNT OF ICE. UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE POCONOS TO AROUND
60 IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE AT 1230 AM. READINGS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
30S IN OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES AND INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN THE SOUTH BY DAYBREAK. THE WIND WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY FARTHER OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE
PELLETS OR WET SNOW AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON-
GOING AT THAT TIME, WHICH AM EXPECTING. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE AFTN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE EAST OF
THE VA CAPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED
TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS
THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST
WINDS MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT
MUCH BLOCKING WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING
TO COMBAT ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND
NORTHERLY WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE
STRONGER DYNAMIC COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS
OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE
ABLE TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY
SEASON TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT
DEAL IN MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE
INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE
NIGHT. THE RAIN MAY CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND KRDG AND KABE AFTER
ABOUT 0800Z WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED.

DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH AN IMPROVEMENT MAINLY INTO
THE VFR CATEGORY ALONG WITH A DIMINISHING CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY MAY
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS,
ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN FRONT AT
22Z FRIDAY.

WINDS SHIFTED TO NW WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL
GUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE GENERALLY AROUND 2
TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING
BUT COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON
MONDAY EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEFNERNEAR TERM...IOVINO SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA
LONG TERM...HEFNER AVIATION...HEFNER/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/HEFNER/MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 270146
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE SATURDAY.
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SNOW MAP POSTING FOR EXTREME NW PTN OF THE FCST AREA EARLY FRIDAY.
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH PCPN IS LEFT WHEN IT TURNS COLD
ENOUGH TO SNOW. WE MAY NEED AN SPS FOR SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR AND N OF I-80 EARLY FRIDAY?

THE GRIDS EVEN HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW DOWN TO NEAR PHL AROUND
DAYBREAK BUT TOO WARM TO ACCUMULATE.

THUNDER CHANCES TONIGHT ARE NOW VERY LIMITED.

THINGS TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE SEE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A CHANGEOVER TO
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH WE`LL MONITOR THE FCST FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS OR WET SNOW
AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON-GOING AT THAT TIME,
WHICH AM EXPECTING. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTN AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE EAST OF THE VA CAPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED TO
TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT MUCH BLOCKING
WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING TO COMBAT
ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE STRONGER DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL IN
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...AT 01Z VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR IN
SHOWERS/ST/FOG TO VFR HIGH CIGS PARTS OF THE DELMARVA. THE VARIED
CONDS WILL BASICALLY EVEN OUT TO MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN/ST/FOG WITH
RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE CFP THIS
EVENING.

KMIV/KACY CFP BETWEEN 02Z-04Z/27. AFTER THE BRIEFLY GUSTY NW WIND
25-30 KT WITH THE CFP THIS EVENING...THEN THE NW WIND SETTLES
BACK A BIT DURING THE NIGHT. ICING SHOULD DEVELOP IN PCPN TOWARD
DAWN NEAR AND NW OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KPHL, ESPECIALLY
NEAR 5000 FT AS A SUB FREEZING LAYER IS MODELED TO DRIVES SEWD
WHILE PCPN IS ON-GOING.

FRIDAY...IFR OR MVFR CONDS AT DAYBREAK IN PCPN WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING EXCEPT NOT REACHING KMIV AND KACY UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS, A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS,
ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN FRONT AT
22Z FRIDAY.

WINDS SHIFTING TO NW WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY
EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 948
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 948
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 948
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 948




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270146
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE SATURDAY.
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SNOW MAP POSTING FOR EXTREME NW PTN OF THE FCST AREA EARLY FRIDAY.
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH PCPN IS LEFT WHEN IT TURNS COLD
ENOUGH TO SNOW. WE MAY NEED AN SPS FOR SNOW OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
NEAR AND N OF I-80 EARLY FRIDAY?

THE GRIDS EVEN HAVE A CHANCE OF SNOW DOWN TO NEAR PHL AROUND
DAYBREAK BUT TOO WARM TO ACCUMULATE.

THUNDER CHANCES TONIGHT ARE NOW VERY LIMITED.

THINGS TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE SEE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A CHANGEOVER TO
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH WE`LL MONITOR THE FCST FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS OR WET SNOW
AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON-GOING AT THAT TIME,
WHICH AM EXPECTING. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTN AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE EAST OF THE VA CAPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED TO
TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT MUCH BLOCKING
WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING TO COMBAT
ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE STRONGER DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL IN
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...AT 01Z VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR IN
SHOWERS/ST/FOG TO VFR HIGH CIGS PARTS OF THE DELMARVA. THE VARIED
CONDS WILL BASICALLY EVEN OUT TO MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN/ST/FOG WITH
RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE CFP THIS
EVENING.

KMIV/KACY CFP BETWEEN 02Z-04Z/27. AFTER THE BRIEFLY GUSTY NW WIND
25-30 KT WITH THE CFP THIS EVENING...THEN THE NW WIND SETTLES
BACK A BIT DURING THE NIGHT. ICING SHOULD DEVELOP IN PCPN TOWARD
DAWN NEAR AND NW OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KPHL, ESPECIALLY
NEAR 5000 FT AS A SUB FREEZING LAYER IS MODELED TO DRIVES SEWD
WHILE PCPN IS ON-GOING.

FRIDAY...IFR OR MVFR CONDS AT DAYBREAK IN PCPN WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING EXCEPT NOT REACHING KMIV AND KACY UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS, A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS,
ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN FRONT AT
22Z FRIDAY.

WINDS SHIFTING TO NW WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY
EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 948
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 948
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 948
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 948





000
FXUS61 KPHI 270053
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
853 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE SATURDAY.
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WE`LL TAKE A LOOK AT THE SNOW GRIDS AGAIN AT 9 PM. CONCERN CONTINUES
FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATIVE SNOW IN HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 1000 FT IN NE PA AND NW NJ IN THE 4 AM TO 88 AM TIME FRAME.

THANK YOU TO THE FB POSTS.

TSTMS ON THE WANE AT 830 PM AS THEY NOW APPROACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AS A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ITS TURNING COLDER IN NE PA. WE`VE ADJUSTED POPS ALREADY FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WILL TAKE ONE MORE CRACK AT THIS FOR 930
PM.

THINGS TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE SEE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A CHANGEOVER TO
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH WE`LL MONITOR THE FCST FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS OR WET SNOW
AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON-GOING AT THAT TIME,
WHICH AM EXPECTING. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTN AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE EAST OF THE VA CAPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED TO
TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT MUCH BLOCKING
WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING TO COMBAT
ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE STRONGER DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL IN
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THUNDER IS ON THE WANE AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED BY 03Z. AT 00Z, VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR
IN SHOWERS/ST/FOG TO SLOTS OF VFR HIGH CIGS VCNTY KPHL-KILG. THE
VARIED CONDS WILL BASICALLY EVEN OUT TO MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN/ST/FOG
WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE CFP
THIS EVENING.

THE CFP WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF NW WIND GUST OF
25-30 KTS AND A HEAVY SHOWER AS PER THE HRRR.

KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KILG 01Z-02Z CFP, AND KMIV/KACY BETWEEN 02Z-04Z/27.
AFTER THE BRIEFLY GUSTY NW WIND 25-30 KT WITH THE CFP THIS EVENING...THEN
SETTLES BACK A BIT DURING THE NIGHT. ICING SHOULD DEVELOP IN PCPN
TOWARD DAWN NEAR AND NW OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KPHL,
ESPECIALLY NEAR 5000 FT AS A SUB FREEZING LAYER IS MODELED TO
DRIVES SEWD WHILE PCPN IS ON-GOING.

FRIDAY...IFR OR MVFR CONDS AT DAYBREAK IN PCPN WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING EXCEPT NOT REACHING KMIV AND KACY UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS, A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS,
ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN FRONT AT
22Z FRIDAY.

WINDS SHIFTING TO NW WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY
EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 853
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 853
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 853
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 853





000
FXUS61 KPHI 270053
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
853 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE SATURDAY.
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WE`LL TAKE A LOOK AT THE SNOW GRIDS AGAIN AT 9 PM. CONCERN CONTINUES
FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATIVE SNOW IN HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 1000 FT IN NE PA AND NW NJ IN THE 4 AM TO 88 AM TIME FRAME.

THANK YOU TO THE FB POSTS.

TSTMS ON THE WANE AT 830 PM AS THEY NOW APPROACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AS A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ITS TURNING COLDER IN NE PA. WE`VE ADJUSTED POPS ALREADY FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WILL TAKE ONE MORE CRACK AT THIS FOR 930
PM.

THINGS TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE SEE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A CHANGEOVER TO
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH WE`LL MONITOR THE FCST FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS OR WET SNOW
AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON-GOING AT THAT TIME,
WHICH AM EXPECTING. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTN AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE EAST OF THE VA CAPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED TO
TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT MUCH BLOCKING
WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING TO COMBAT
ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE STRONGER DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL IN
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THUNDER IS ON THE WANE AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED BY 03Z. AT 00Z, VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR
IN SHOWERS/ST/FOG TO SLOTS OF VFR HIGH CIGS VCNTY KPHL-KILG. THE
VARIED CONDS WILL BASICALLY EVEN OUT TO MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN/ST/FOG
WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE CFP
THIS EVENING.

THE CFP WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF NW WIND GUST OF
25-30 KTS AND A HEAVY SHOWER AS PER THE HRRR.

KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KILG 01Z-02Z CFP, AND KMIV/KACY BETWEEN 02Z-04Z/27.
AFTER THE BRIEFLY GUSTY NW WIND 25-30 KT WITH THE CFP THIS EVENING...THEN
SETTLES BACK A BIT DURING THE NIGHT. ICING SHOULD DEVELOP IN PCPN
TOWARD DAWN NEAR AND NW OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KPHL,
ESPECIALLY NEAR 5000 FT AS A SUB FREEZING LAYER IS MODELED TO
DRIVES SEWD WHILE PCPN IS ON-GOING.

FRIDAY...IFR OR MVFR CONDS AT DAYBREAK IN PCPN WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING EXCEPT NOT REACHING KMIV AND KACY UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS, A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS,
ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN FRONT AT
22Z FRIDAY.

WINDS SHIFTING TO NW WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY
EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 853
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 853
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 853
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 853




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270053
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
853 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE SATURDAY.
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WE`LL TAKE A LOOK AT THE SNOW GRIDS AGAIN AT 9 PM. CONCERN CONTINUES
FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATIVE SNOW IN HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 1000 FT IN NE PA AND NW NJ IN THE 4 AM TO 88 AM TIME FRAME.

THANK YOU TO THE FB POSTS.

TSTMS ON THE WANE AT 830 PM AS THEY NOW APPROACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AS A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ITS TURNING COLDER IN NE PA. WE`VE ADJUSTED POPS ALREADY FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WILL TAKE ONE MORE CRACK AT THIS FOR 930
PM.

THINGS TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE SEE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A CHANGEOVER TO
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH WE`LL MONITOR THE FCST FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS OR WET SNOW
AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON-GOING AT THAT TIME,
WHICH AM EXPECTING. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTN AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE EAST OF THE VA CAPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED TO
TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT MUCH BLOCKING
WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING TO COMBAT
ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE STRONGER DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL IN
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THUNDER IS ON THE WANE AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED BY 03Z. AT 00Z, VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR
IN SHOWERS/ST/FOG TO SLOTS OF VFR HIGH CIGS VCNTY KPHL-KILG. THE
VARIED CONDS WILL BASICALLY EVEN OUT TO MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN/ST/FOG
WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE CFP
THIS EVENING.

THE CFP WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF NW WIND GUST OF
25-30 KTS AND A HEAVY SHOWER AS PER THE HRRR.

KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KILG 01Z-02Z CFP, AND KMIV/KACY BETWEEN 02Z-04Z/27.
AFTER THE BRIEFLY GUSTY NW WIND 25-30 KT WITH THE CFP THIS EVENING...THEN
SETTLES BACK A BIT DURING THE NIGHT. ICING SHOULD DEVELOP IN PCPN
TOWARD DAWN NEAR AND NW OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KPHL,
ESPECIALLY NEAR 5000 FT AS A SUB FREEZING LAYER IS MODELED TO
DRIVES SEWD WHILE PCPN IS ON-GOING.

FRIDAY...IFR OR MVFR CONDS AT DAYBREAK IN PCPN WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING EXCEPT NOT REACHING KMIV AND KACY UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS, A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS,
ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN FRONT AT
22Z FRIDAY.

WINDS SHIFTING TO NW WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY
EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 853
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 853
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 853
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 853




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270053
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
853 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE SATURDAY.
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE
LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WE`LL TAKE A LOOK AT THE SNOW GRIDS AGAIN AT 9 PM. CONCERN CONTINUES
FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATIVE SNOW IN HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY
ABOVE 1000 FT IN NE PA AND NW NJ IN THE 4 AM TO 88 AM TIME FRAME.

THANK YOU TO THE FB POSTS.

TSTMS ON THE WANE AT 830 PM AS THEY NOW APPROACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR
AS A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH NW WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

ITS TURNING COLDER IN NE PA. WE`VE ADJUSTED POPS ALREADY FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND WILL TAKE ONE MORE CRACK AT THIS FOR 930
PM.

THINGS TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE SEE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A CHANGEOVER TO
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH WE`LL MONITOR THE FCST FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS OR WET SNOW
AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON-GOING AT THAT TIME,
WHICH AM EXPECTING. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTN AS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE EAST OF THE VA CAPES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED TO
TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT MUCH BLOCKING
WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING TO COMBAT
ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE STRONGER DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL IN
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...THUNDER IS ON THE WANE AND SHOULD BE COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED BY 03Z. AT 00Z, VARIABLE CONDITIONS RANGING FROM IFR
IN SHOWERS/ST/FOG TO SLOTS OF VFR HIGH CIGS VCNTY KPHL-KILG. THE
VARIED CONDS WILL BASICALLY EVEN OUT TO MVFR OR IFR IN RAIN/ST/FOG
WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE CFP
THIS EVENING.

THE CFP WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF NW WIND GUST OF
25-30 KTS AND A HEAVY SHOWER AS PER THE HRRR.

KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KILG 01Z-02Z CFP, AND KMIV/KACY BETWEEN 02Z-04Z/27.
AFTER THE BRIEFLY GUSTY NW WIND 25-30 KT WITH THE CFP THIS EVENING...THEN
SETTLES BACK A BIT DURING THE NIGHT. ICING SHOULD DEVELOP IN PCPN
TOWARD DAWN NEAR AND NW OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KPHL,
ESPECIALLY NEAR 5000 FT AS A SUB FREEZING LAYER IS MODELED TO
DRIVES SEWD WHILE PCPN IS ON-GOING.

FRIDAY...IFR OR MVFR CONDS AT DAYBREAK IN PCPN WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING EXCEPT NOT REACHING KMIV AND KACY UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS, A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS,
ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN FRONT AT
22Z FRIDAY.

WINDS SHIFTING TO NW WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET ON THE OCEAN THIS EVENING AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY
EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG 853
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 853
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 853
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 853





000
FXUS61 KPHI 262221
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
621 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. LOW
PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG THIS FRONT EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
LATE FRIDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA LATE SATURDAY. STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER ON MONDAY.
ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WE WILL PROBABLY UPDATE SNOW AMTS IN NE PA AND NW NJ BY 630 PM FOR
A PERIOD OF SNOW BETWEEN 4 AM AND 8 AM.

TSTMS VCNTY HARRISBURG SW INTO N MD WITH CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING IC
AND A FEW REPORTS OF PEA HAIL WITH VIL 20. HANDLING WITH SPS`S AND
NOWS PER INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
THUNDER REMAINING POSSIBLE IN SE PA, NE MD AND N DE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BUT THERE IS ENOUGH THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE
FRONT IS CROSSING THE REGION.

THINGS TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE SEE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A CHANGEOVER TO
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH WE`LL MONITOR THE FCST FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS OR WET SNOW
AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON GOING, WHICH WE THINK IT
WILL BE. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTN AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED TO
TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT MUCH BLOCKING
WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING TO COMBAT
ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE STRONGER DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL IN
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CURRENTLY MVFR-VFR CIGS PREDOMINANT
PHL/KILG/KRDG WHILE IFR CONDS VCNTY SHOWERS KMIV AND KACY AND IFR
CONDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. THE VARIED SUB VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT, BASICALLY DEGRADING BACK TO IFR WITH SHOWERS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE CFP THIS EVENING.

THE CFP WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF NW WIND GUST OF
25-30 KTS AND A HEAVY SHOWER AS PER THE HRRR. WE NOW HAVE UPGRADED
FOR THUNDER AT KRDG.

THE CFP IS BEING ADVANCED FASTER AND EXPECT THROUGH KRDG/KABE
NEAR 23Z, KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KILG NEAR 02Z, AND KMIV/KACY BETWEEN
03Z-04Z/27. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
BRIEFLY GUSTY NW TO 25-30 KT WITH THE CFP THIS EVENING...THEN
SETTLE BACK A BIT DURING THE NIGHT. ICING SHOULD DEVELOP IN PCPN
TOWARD DAWN NEAR AND NW OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KPHL,
ESPECIALLY NEAR 5000 FT AS A SUB FREEZING LAYER IS MODELED TO
DRIVES SEWD WHILE PCPN IS ON-GOING.

FRIDAY...IFR OR MVFR CONDS AT DAYBREAK IN PCPN WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING EXCEPT NOT REACHING KMIV AND KACY UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MWW UPDATED FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS. MWS ISSUED FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS
THROUGH ABOUT 8PM TODAY. HAVE HAD A NUMBER OF REPORTS OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS ALONG OUR COASTS THIS AFTN.

OTHERWISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS, ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
FRONT AT 22Z FRIDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL START TO VEER
TO THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE AREA WATERS IN THE 05-09Z TIME FRAME AND THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE, LEAVING US WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

WAVES ARE RUNNING AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET ON THE OCEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY
EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...DRAG/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 262136
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
536 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY FORM ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT
RESIDES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WE WILL PROBABLY UPDATE SNOW AMTS IN NE PA AND NW NJ BY 630 PM FOR
A PERIOD OF SNOW BETWEEN 4 AM AND 8 AM.

BUSY NOW WITH TSTMS VCNTY HARRISBURG HEADING FOR READING PA.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT AND SHOULD RISE A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE CONTINUING WARM ADVECTION BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BUT THERE IS ENOUGH THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AS THE FRONT IS CROSSING THE REGION.

THINGS TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE SEE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A CHANGEOVER TO
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH WE`LL MONITOR THE FCST FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS OR WET SNOW
AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON GOING, WHICH WE THINK IT
WILL BE. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTN AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED TO
TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT MUCH BLOCKING
WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING TO COMBAT
ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE STRONGER DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL IN
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CURRENTLY MVFR-VFR CIGS PREDOMINANT PHL/KILG
WHILE IFR CONDS VCNTY SHOWERS KMIV AND KACY AND IFR CONDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. THE VARIED SUB VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
BASICALLY DEGRADING BACK TO IFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE CFP THIS EVENING.

THE CFP WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF NW WIND GUST OF
25-30 KTS AND A HEAVY SHOWER AS PER THE HRRR. WE NOW HAVE UPGRADED
FOR THUNDER AT KRDG.

THE CFP IS BEING ADVANCED FASTER AND EXPECT THROUGH KRDG/KABE
NEAR 23Z, KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KILG NEAR 02Z, AND KMIV/KACY BETWEEN
03Z-04Z/27. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
BRIEFLY GUSTY NW TO 25-30 KT WITH THE CFP THIS EVENING...THEN
SETTLE BACK A BIT DURING THE NIGHT. ICING SHOULD DEVELOP IN PCPN
TOWARD DAWN NEAR AND NW OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KPHL,
ESPECIALLY NEAR 5000 FT AS A SUB FREEZING LAYER IS MODELED TO
DRIVES SEWD WHILE PCPN IS ON-GOING.

FRIDAY...IFR OR MVFR CONDS AT DAYBREAK IN PCPN WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING EXCEPT NOT REACHING KMIV AND KACY UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MWW UPDATED FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS. MWS ISSUED FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS
THROUGH ABOUT 8PM TODAY. HAVE HAD A NUMBER OF REPORTS OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS ALONG OUR COASTS THIS AFTN.

OTHERWISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS, ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
FRONT AT 22Z FRIDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL START TO VEER
TO THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE AREA WATERS IN THE 05-09Z TIME FRAME AND THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE, LEAVING US WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

WAVES ARE RUNNING AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET ON THE OCEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY
EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...MEOLA/DRAG 537
SHORT TERM...MEOLA/DRAG 537
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/MEOLA 537
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 262136
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
536 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY FORM ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT
RESIDES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WE WILL PROBABLY UPDATE SNOW AMTS IN NE PA AND NW NJ BY 630 PM FOR
A PERIOD OF SNOW BETWEEN 4 AM AND 8 AM.

BUSY NOW WITH TSTMS VCNTY HARRISBURG HEADING FOR READING PA.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT AND SHOULD RISE A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE CONTINUING WARM ADVECTION BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BUT THERE IS ENOUGH THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AS THE FRONT IS CROSSING THE REGION.

THINGS TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE SEE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A CHANGEOVER TO
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH WE`LL MONITOR THE FCST FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
RAIN HANGING AROUND - PROBABLY MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS OR WET SNOW
AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD IF PCPN IS ON GOING, WHICH WE THINK IT
WILL BE. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE DURING THE AFTN AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED TO
TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT MUCH BLOCKING
WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING TO COMBAT
ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE STRONGER DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL IN
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CURRENTLY MVFR-VFR CIGS PREDOMINANT PHL/KILG
WHILE IFR CONDS VCNTY SHOWERS KMIV AND KACY AND IFR CONDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. THE VARIED SUB VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
BASICALLY DEGRADING BACK TO IFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE CFP THIS EVENING.

THE CFP WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF NW WIND GUST OF
25-30 KTS AND A HEAVY SHOWER AS PER THE HRRR. WE NOW HAVE UPGRADED
FOR THUNDER AT KRDG.

THE CFP IS BEING ADVANCED FASTER AND EXPECT THROUGH KRDG/KABE
NEAR 23Z, KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KILG NEAR 02Z, AND KMIV/KACY BETWEEN
03Z-04Z/27. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
BRIEFLY GUSTY NW TO 25-30 KT WITH THE CFP THIS EVENING...THEN
SETTLE BACK A BIT DURING THE NIGHT. ICING SHOULD DEVELOP IN PCPN
TOWARD DAWN NEAR AND NW OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR INCLUDING KPHL,
ESPECIALLY NEAR 5000 FT AS A SUB FREEZING LAYER IS MODELED TO
DRIVES SEWD WHILE PCPN IS ON-GOING.

FRIDAY...IFR OR MVFR CONDS AT DAYBREAK IN PCPN WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING EXCEPT NOT REACHING KMIV AND KACY UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MWW UPDATED FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS. MWS ISSUED FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS
THROUGH ABOUT 8PM TODAY. HAVE HAD A NUMBER OF REPORTS OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS ALONG OUR COASTS THIS AFTN.

OTHERWISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS, ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
FRONT AT 22Z FRIDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL START TO VEER
TO THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE AREA WATERS IN THE 05-09Z TIME FRAME AND THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE, LEAVING US WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

WAVES ARE RUNNING AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET ON THE OCEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY
EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...MEOLA/DRAG 537
SHORT TERM...MEOLA/DRAG 537
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/MEOLA 537
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 262046
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
446 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY FORM ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT
RESIDES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT AND SHOULD RISE A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE CONTINUING WARM ADVECTION BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BUT THERE IS ENOUGH THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE FRONT
IS CROSSING THE REGION.

THINGS TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE SEE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A CHANGEOVER TO
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH WE`LL MONITOR THE FCST FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME
LINGERING RAIN HANGING AROUND - POSSIBLY MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS OR
WET SNOW AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE AFTN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED TO
TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT MUCH BLOCKING
WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING TO COMBAT
ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE STRONGER DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL IN
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CURRENTLY MVFR-VFR CIGS PREDOMINANT PHL/KILG
WHILE IFR CONDS VCNTY SHOWERS KMIV AND KACY AND IFR CONDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. THE VARIED SUB VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
BASICALLY DEGRADING BACK TO IFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE CFP THIS EVENING.

THE CFP WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF NW WIND GUST OF
25-30 KTS AND A HEAVY SHOWER AS PER THE HRRR. THE CFP IS BEING ADVANCED
FASTER AND EXPECT THROUGH KRDG/KABE 23Z, KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KILG NEAR
02Z, AND KMIV/KACY BETWEEN 03Z-04Z/27. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME BRIEFLY GUSTY NW TO 25-30 KT WITH THE CFP THIS
EVENING...THEN SETTLE BACK A BIT DURING THE NIGHT. ICING COULD
DEVELOP IN PCPN TOWARD DAWN NEAR AND NW OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR
INCLUDING KPHL, ESPECIALLY NEAR 5000 FT AS A SUB FREEZING LAYER IS
MODELED TO DRIVES SEWD WHILE PCPN IS ON-GOING.

FRIDAY...IFR OR MVFR CONDS AT DAYBREAK IN PCPN WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING EXCEPT NOT REACHING KMIV AND KACY UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MWW UPDATED FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS. MWS ISSUED FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS
THROUGH ABOUT 8PM TODAY. HAVE HAD A NUMBER OF REPORTS OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS ALONG OUR COASTS THIS AFTN.

OTHERWISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS, ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
FRONT AT 22Z FRIDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL START TO VEER
TO THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE AREA WATERS IN THE 05-09Z TIME FRAME AND THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE, LEAVING US WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

WAVES ARE RUNNING AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET ON THE OCEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY
EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...MEOLA 446
SHORT TERM...MEOLA 446
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/MEOLA 446
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 446





000
FXUS61 KPHI 262046
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
446 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY FORM ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT
RESIDES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT AND SHOULD RISE A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE CONTINUING WARM ADVECTION BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BUT THERE IS ENOUGH THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE FRONT
IS CROSSING THE REGION.

THINGS TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE SEE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A CHANGEOVER TO
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH WE`LL MONITOR THE FCST FOR THE POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME
LINGERING RAIN HANGING AROUND - POSSIBLY MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS OR
WET SNOW AT DAYBREAK VCNTY I-95 NWWD. PCPN ENDING FROM NW TO SE
DURING THE AFTN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFFSHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED TO
TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT MUCH BLOCKING
WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING TO COMBAT
ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE STRONGER DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL IN
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CURRENTLY MVFR-VFR CIGS PREDOMINANT PHL/KILG
WHILE IFR CONDS VCNTY SHOWERS KMIV AND KACY AND IFR CONDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. THE VARIED SUB VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
BASICALLY DEGRADING BACK TO IFR WITH SHOWERS BECOMING WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE CFP THIS EVENING.

THE CFP WILL PROBABLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BRIEF NW WIND GUST OF
25-30 KTS AND A HEAVY SHOWER AS PER THE HRRR. THE CFP IS BEING ADVANCED
FASTER AND EXPECT THROUGH KRDG/KABE 23Z, KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KILG NEAR
02Z, AND KMIV/KACY BETWEEN 03Z-04Z/27. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME BRIEFLY GUSTY NW TO 25-30 KT WITH THE CFP THIS
EVENING...THEN SETTLE BACK A BIT DURING THE NIGHT. ICING COULD
DEVELOP IN PCPN TOWARD DAWN NEAR AND NW OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR
INCLUDING KPHL, ESPECIALLY NEAR 5000 FT AS A SUB FREEZING LAYER IS
MODELED TO DRIVES SEWD WHILE PCPN IS ON-GOING.

FRIDAY...IFR OR MVFR CONDS AT DAYBREAK IN PCPN WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR CIGS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING EXCEPT NOT REACHING KMIV AND KACY UNTIL SOMETIME
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
MWW UPDATED FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS. MWS ISSUED FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS
THROUGH ABOUT 8PM TODAY. HAVE HAD A NUMBER OF REPORTS OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS ALONG OUR COASTS THIS AFTN.

OTHERWISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS, ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN
FRONT AT 22Z FRIDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL START TO VEER
TO THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE AREA WATERS IN THE 05-09Z TIME FRAME AND THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE, LEAVING US WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

WAVES ARE RUNNING AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET ON THE OCEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY
EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...MEOLA 446
SHORT TERM...MEOLA 446
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/MEOLA 446
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/MEOLA 446




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261949
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY FORM ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT
RESIDES OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHOT OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER REMAINING POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT AND SHOULD RISE A COUPLE OF MORE DEGREES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE CONTINUING WARM ADVECTION BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BUT THERE IS ENOUGH THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS THE FRONT
IS CROSSING THE REGION.

THINGS TURN COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS WE SEE STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES, THERE MAY BE A CHANGEOVER TO
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE
PRECIPITATION STARTS TO DIMINISH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OFF THE COAST FRIDAY WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS HANGING AROUND, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WAVE LOOKS TO FORM ALONG THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND THIS WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS FROM EXITING
OFFSHORE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON FRIDAY IN MANY AREAS COMPARED TO
TODAYS MAX TEMPS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND. NORTHWEST WINDS
MAY BE GUSTY EARLY BUT SHOULD RELAX AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN THE EAST WITH BROAD
RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGTERM
PERIOD. THE PATTERN ALOFT HAS A FAST FLOW LOOK WITHOUT MUCH BLOCKING
WHICH ADDS TO A BIT OF THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE.

FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...DEEP ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
OVERHEAD AS STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TRIES TO PHASE WITH
WEAKER, SLOWER MOVING, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY. EVEN WITH MINIMAL
PHASING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
REGION LATE ON FRIDAY. THIS WEAK INFLECTION WILL MOVE ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SITTING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AND COULD
THROW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY. THINKING THAT A MAJORITY OF THE LIFT AND MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHEAST, OVER NEW ENGLAND, AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE PASSAGE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW
INSTABILITY SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERMALLY WE WILL BE
DROPPING BELOW FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
SO MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW. TRYING TO COMBAT
ANY DAYTIME HEATING, EVEN WITH A MULTITUDE OF CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY
WINDS, WILL BE TOUGH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER-30S...THE ONE CAVEAT WOULD BE STRONGER DYNAMIC
COOLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH/MESOSCALE BANDING
FEATURE...THOUGH IT IS ILL-DEFINED ACROSS OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.

SUNDAY...RIDGING TO OUR SOUTH RE-ESTABLISHES IT SELF ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

MONDAY...RIDGING SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A RETURN FLOW
WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ABLE
TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL, AS WE CONTINUE THE TUMULTUOUS EARLY SEASON
TEMPERATURE SWINGS. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A GREAT DEAL IN
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE WE KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
THE FORECAST, THOUGH THE BETTER LIFT WILL ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON SO POPS MAY BE INCREASED IN TIME.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, REMAINS
QUICK AND ACTIVE. NUMEROUS EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, EACH CARRYING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERY ACTIVITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE
DAYS OF APRIL...THIS COULD EASILY CHANGE WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. AS
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR/IFR MAY
OCCUR. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE
THROUGH KABE/KRDG BETWEEN 01-3Z, KPHL/KPNE/KTTN/KILG BETWEEN 03-06Z,
AND KMIV/KACY BETWEEN 06-08Z. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THERE MAY BE PERIODS
OF LOWER CONDITIONS. GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH TONIGHT.

FRIDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM MVFR TO VFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10
KNOTS...DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS. NORTHERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
AND BEGIN TO GUST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...VFR. WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...GUSTS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS,
ENDING ON THE DELAWARE BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY AND ON THE OCEAN FRONT AT
22Z FRIDAY.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL START TO VEER
TO THE WEST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE AREA WATERS IN THE 05-09Z TIME FRAME AND THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE, LEAVING US WITH NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL GUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

WAVES ARE RUNNING AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET ON THE OCEAN THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY EVENING BUT
COULD INCREASE A TAD SATURDAY WITH A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. COULD SEE SCA SEAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE. A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH ON MONDAY
EVENING AND WINDS MAY STAY ABOVE SCA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/MEOLA
MARINE...HEAVENER/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261336
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THEN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND, ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THAT FRONT
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST WELL OUT
TO SEA SATURDAY. UNSEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING HAS STARTED TO LIFT A BIT AND
VISIBILITIES ARE STARTING TO IMPROVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING.

SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING UP ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP THIS MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND
AND EXPECTED TO TRAVEL UP THROUGH DELAWARE AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PRESENT WITH THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE
AS THEY PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH MUCH OF OUR REGION.
THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIR
WILL SCOUR OUT OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ENTIRELY. AS A RESULT,
TODAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. MEANWHILE, A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE COASTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR FROM THE
COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE JET ALONG WITH
THE STRONG LATE MARCH SUN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST START AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND IT SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY
LIFTS GRADUALLY THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. WE HAVE INDICATED A
PERIOD OF LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN
MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON COULD BRING LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF A QUARTER
TO A HALF INCH TO PARTS OF THE UPPER DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 800 PM AND 200 AM. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
RATHER LIMITED. HOWEVER, IT IS A ROBUST FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SCATTERED THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S BY DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW
THERE. HOWEVER, ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AS
PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO BE
GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST FRI MRNG AND PRECIP WILL BE
COMING TO AN END FROM W TO E DURG THE COURSE OF THE MRNG HOURS.
PRECIP WILL LINGER LONGEST OVER SRN AND ERN SECTIONS WHERE IT CUD
LINGER INTO ERLY AFTN. THE MDLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO TODAY, AND MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP SHUD
BE OVER WITH BY 00Z SAT WITH EXCEPT FOR PSBLY THE DELMARVA.

LOW PRES IS THEN EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE CDFNT TO THE E FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM CAN ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A WEAK SFC TROF MAY DEVELOP ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE TROF
AND MOVE ACRS THE REGION BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THIS TROF
COUPLED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP H5 TROF COULD TRIGGER SOME
INSTABILITY SHWRS/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT, ESPECIALLY ACRS THE N. SO,
WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

THE LARGE HIGH THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND
CONDS DRY OUT. THE HIGH THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT AS LOW
PRES TREKS ACRS SRN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL BRING A WK CDFNT ACRS
NEW ENG AND ITS SRN EXTENT MAY BRUSH OUR NRN ZONES. THE FRONT WILL
NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT, BUT CUD TRIGGER SOME PRECIP WITH
IT MON INTO MON NIGHT.

THEN, THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
REGARD TO TUE. THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH WK HIGH PRES. THIS
CONTINUES INTO ERLY WED BEFORE LOW PRES APPROACHES. ON THE OTHER
HAND, THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING A WK AREA OF LOW PRES ACRS THE
REGION LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT THEN KEEPS WED DRY. THE CMC IS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. SO, FOR RIGHT NOW, WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST TUE AND KEEP LOW POPS ON WED AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL START OFF AROUND NRML ON FRI THEN PLUMMET BEHIND THE
CFP FOR SAT AND SUN. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NRML OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO NR NRML ON MON. THEY
WILL DROP A BIT FOR TUE BEHIND THE WK FRONT THEN BOUNCE BACK AGAIN
NR MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR KMIV AND
KACY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND JET
LOCATED NEAR THE COAST.

CONDITIONS VARY ACROSS THE TERMINALS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR, WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE TERMINALS AND WILL MAINLY AFFECT KPHL AND POINTS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS OUR
TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 0100Z AND 0500Z. IT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND LOW CONDITIONS. AGAIN, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDER AT THAT TIME BUT IT IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING MAY BEGIN TO FAVOR THE
EAST AROUND 4 TO 6 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WIND
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND IT IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. THE
WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING THEN IT WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHWR PSBL WITH LWR
CONDS MAINLY E ERLY. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHRA OR SHSN N
PSBL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN MAINLY N AND
W PSBL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OUR
COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE IT DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
BEING THAT THE WATER TEMPERATURE REMAINS QUITE COLD AND THE AIR
ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IS RATHER MILD,
MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL BE LIMITED. WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT GUSTS
MAY REACH ONLY 25 OR 30 KNOTS EVEN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 50 OR 60 KNOTS TODAY.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL
THE BOUNDARY ARRIVES. THE VISIBILITY WILL BE A HALF MILE OR LESS
OVER THE WATER.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT.

WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS AND FOR WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING
TO 5 TO 8 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCA CONDS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...WIND AND SEAS MAY ONCE AGAIN APPROACH
SCA CONDS ON STRONG NWLY FLOW. CONDS APPEAR MARGINAL, BUT
ADDITIONAL FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.

SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AS CONDS DECREASE TO BELOW
SCA CONDS.

SUN NIGHT-MON...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES AND STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261336
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THEN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND, ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THAT FRONT
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST WELL OUT
TO SEA SATURDAY. UNSEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING HAS STARTED TO LIFT A BIT AND
VISIBILITIES ARE STARTING TO IMPROVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING.

SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING UP ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP THIS MORNING
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND
AND EXPECTED TO TRAVEL UP THROUGH DELAWARE AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY THIS MORNING. SOME LIGHTNING HAS BEEN PRESENT WITH THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE
AS THEY PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH MUCH OF OUR REGION.
THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIR
WILL SCOUR OUT OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ENTIRELY. AS A RESULT,
TODAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. MEANWHILE, A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE COASTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR FROM THE
COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE JET ALONG WITH
THE STRONG LATE MARCH SUN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST START AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND IT SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY
LIFTS GRADUALLY THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. WE HAVE INDICATED A
PERIOD OF LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN
MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON COULD BRING LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF A QUARTER
TO A HALF INCH TO PARTS OF THE UPPER DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 800 PM AND 200 AM. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
RATHER LIMITED. HOWEVER, IT IS A ROBUST FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SCATTERED THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S BY DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW
THERE. HOWEVER, ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AS
PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO BE
GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST FRI MRNG AND PRECIP WILL BE
COMING TO AN END FROM W TO E DURG THE COURSE OF THE MRNG HOURS.
PRECIP WILL LINGER LONGEST OVER SRN AND ERN SECTIONS WHERE IT CUD
LINGER INTO ERLY AFTN. THE MDLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO TODAY, AND MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP SHUD
BE OVER WITH BY 00Z SAT WITH EXCEPT FOR PSBLY THE DELMARVA.

LOW PRES IS THEN EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE CDFNT TO THE E FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM CAN ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A WEAK SFC TROF MAY DEVELOP ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE TROF
AND MOVE ACRS THE REGION BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THIS TROF
COUPLED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP H5 TROF COULD TRIGGER SOME
INSTABILITY SHWRS/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT, ESPECIALLY ACRS THE N. SO,
WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

THE LARGE HIGH THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND
CONDS DRY OUT. THE HIGH THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT AS LOW
PRES TREKS ACRS SRN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL BRING A WK CDFNT ACRS
NEW ENG AND ITS SRN EXTENT MAY BRUSH OUR NRN ZONES. THE FRONT WILL
NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT, BUT CUD TRIGGER SOME PRECIP WITH
IT MON INTO MON NIGHT.

THEN, THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
REGARD TO TUE. THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH WK HIGH PRES. THIS
CONTINUES INTO ERLY WED BEFORE LOW PRES APPROACHES. ON THE OTHER
HAND, THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING A WK AREA OF LOW PRES ACRS THE
REGION LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT THEN KEEPS WED DRY. THE CMC IS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. SO, FOR RIGHT NOW, WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST TUE AND KEEP LOW POPS ON WED AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL START OFF AROUND NRML ON FRI THEN PLUMMET BEHIND THE
CFP FOR SAT AND SUN. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NRML OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO NR NRML ON MON. THEY
WILL DROP A BIT FOR TUE BEHIND THE WK FRONT THEN BOUNCE BACK AGAIN
NR MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR KMIV AND
KACY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND JET
LOCATED NEAR THE COAST.

CONDITIONS VARY ACROSS THE TERMINALS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR, WITH
PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE. SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE TERMINALS AND WILL MAINLY AFFECT KPHL AND POINTS TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS OUR
TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 0100Z AND 0500Z. IT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND LOW CONDITIONS. AGAIN, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDER AT THAT TIME BUT IT IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING MAY BEGIN TO FAVOR THE
EAST AROUND 4 TO 6 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WIND
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND IT IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. THE
WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING THEN IT WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHWR PSBL WITH LWR
CONDS MAINLY E ERLY. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHRA OR SHSN N
PSBL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN MAINLY N AND
W PSBL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OUR
COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE IT DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
BEING THAT THE WATER TEMPERATURE REMAINS QUITE COLD AND THE AIR
ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IS RATHER MILD,
MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL BE LIMITED. WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT GUSTS
MAY REACH ONLY 25 OR 30 KNOTS EVEN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 50 OR 60 KNOTS TODAY.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL
THE BOUNDARY ARRIVES. THE VISIBILITY WILL BE A HALF MILE OR LESS
OVER THE WATER.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT.

WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS AND FOR WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING
TO 5 TO 8 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCA CONDS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...WIND AND SEAS MAY ONCE AGAIN APPROACH
SCA CONDS ON STRONG NWLY FLOW. CONDS APPEAR MARGINAL, BUT
ADDITIONAL FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.

SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AS CONDS DECREASE TO BELOW
SCA CONDS.

SUN NIGHT-MON...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES AND STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 260942
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
542 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THEN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND, ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THAT FRONT
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST WELL OUT
TO SEA SATURDAY. UNSEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE WAS SOME CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE AROUND 530 AM.
HOWEVER, THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD THIS
MORNING AND CEILING HEIGHTS SHOULD LOWER AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN INTO OUR AREA ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALSO, MILD AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD STRENGTHENING THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WE EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE
TERRAIN OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.THERE WAS
ALREADY A FAIR AMOUNT OF FOG NEAR THE COAST AND OVER OUR COASTAL
WATERS AND IT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION AND THE
CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD AND THEY ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR REGION FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME SHOWERS WERE ALREADY INTO SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL DELAWARE AROUND 530 AM. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PASS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS.
DEVELOPING LIFT AND SUBTLE INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDER WITHIN THE AREA OF SHOWERS.

THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH MUCH OF OUR REGION.
THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIR
WILL SCOUR OUT OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ENTIRELY. AS A RESULT,
TODAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. MEANWHILE, A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE COASTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR FROM THE
COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE JET ALONG WITH
THE STRONG LATE MARCH SUN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST START AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND IT SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY
LIFTS GRADUALLY THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. WE HAVE INDICATED A
PERIOD OF LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN
MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON COULD BRING LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF A QUARTER
TO A HALF INCH TO PARTS OF THE UPPER DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 800 PM AND 200 AM. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
RATHER LIMITED. HOWEVER, IT IS A ROBUST FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SCATTERED THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S BY DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW
THERE. HOWEVER, ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AS
PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO BE
GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST FRI MRNG AND PRECIP WILL BE
COMING TO AN END FROM W TO E DURG THE COURSE OF THE MRNG HOURS.
PRECIP WILL LINGER LONGEST OVER SRN AND ERN SECTIONS WHERE IT CUD
LINGER INTO ERLY AFTN. THE MDLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO TODAY, AND MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP SHUD
BE OVER WITH BY 00Z SAT WITH EXCEPT FOR PSBLY THE DELMARVA.

LOW PRES IS THEN EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE CDFNT TO THE E FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM CAN ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A WEAK SFC TROF MAY DEVELOP ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE TROF
AND MOVE ACRS THE REGION BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THIS TROF
COUPLED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP H5 TROF COULD TRIGGER SOME
INSTABILITY SHWRS/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT, ESPECIALLY ACRS THE N. SO,
WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

THE LARGE HIGH THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND
CONDS DRY OUT. THE HIGH THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT AS LOW
PRES TREKS ACRS SRN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL BRING A WK CDFNT ACRS
NEW ENG AND ITS SRN EXTENT MAY BRUSH OUR NRN ZONES. THE FRONT WILL
NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT, BUT CUD TRIGGER SOME PRECIP WITH
IT MON INTO MON NIGHT.

THEN, THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
REGARD TO TUE. THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH WK HIGH PRES. THIS
CONTINUES INTO ERLY WED BEFORE LOW PRES APPROACHES. ON THE OTHER
HAND, THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING A WK AREA OF LOW PRES ACRS THE
REGION LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT THEN KEEPS WED DRY. THE CMC IS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. SO, FOR RIGHT NOW, WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST TUE AND KEEP LOW POPS ON WED AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL START OFF AROUND NRML ON FRI THEN PLUMMET BEHIND THE
CFP FOR SAT AND SUN. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NRML OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO NR NRML ON MON. THEY
WILL DROP A BIT FOR TUE BEHIND THE WK FRONT THEN BOUNCE BACK AGAIN
NR MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR KMIV AND
KACY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND JET
LOCATED NEAR THE COAST.

CONDITIONS WERE IFR AT KTTN, KPNE AND KACY AROUND 0930Z AND THEY
WERE GENERALLY MVFR AT OUR REMAINING FIVE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY THIS MORNING AT KPHL,
KILG, KMIV, KRDG AND KABE WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING
NORTHWARD AND AFFECTING MAINLY KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT THE PROBABILITY IS NOT
GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS OUR
TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 0100Z AND 0500Z. IT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND LOW CONDITIONS. AGAIN, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDER AT THAT TIME BUT IT IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING MAY BEGIN TO FAVOR THE
EAST AROUND 4 TO 6 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WIND
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND IT IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. THE
WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING THEN IT WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHWR PSBL WITH LWR
CONDS MAINLY E ERLY. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHRA OR SHSN N
PSBL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN MAINLY N AND
W PSBL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OUR
COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE IT DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
BEING THAT THE WATER TEMPERATURE REMAINS QUITE COLD AND THE AIR
ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IS RATHER MILD,
MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL BE LIMITED. WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT GUSTS
MAY REACH ONLY 25 OR 30 KNOTS EVEN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 50 OR 60 KNOTS TODAY.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL
THE BOUNDARY ARRIVES. THE VISIBILITY WILL BE A HALF MILE OR LESS
OVER THE WATER.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT.

WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS AND FOR WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING
TO 5 TO 8 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCA CONDS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...WIND AND SEAS MAY ONCE AGAIN APPROACH
SCA CONDS ON STRONG NWLY FLOW. CONDS APPEAR MARGINAL, BUT
ADDITIONAL FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.

SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AS CONDS DECREASE TO BELOW
SCA CONDS.

SUN NIGHT-MON...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES AND STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 260942
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
542 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THEN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND, ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THAT FRONT
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST WELL OUT
TO SEA SATURDAY. UNSEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE WAS SOME CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE AROUND 530 AM.
HOWEVER, THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD THIS
MORNING AND CEILING HEIGHTS SHOULD LOWER AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN INTO OUR AREA ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALSO, MILD AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD STRENGTHENING THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WE EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE
TERRAIN OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.THERE WAS
ALREADY A FAIR AMOUNT OF FOG NEAR THE COAST AND OVER OUR COASTAL
WATERS AND IT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION AND THE
CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD AND THEY ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR REGION FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME SHOWERS WERE ALREADY INTO SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL DELAWARE AROUND 530 AM. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD PASS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS.
DEVELOPING LIFT AND SUBTLE INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
THUNDER WITHIN THE AREA OF SHOWERS.

THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH MUCH OF OUR REGION.
THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIR
WILL SCOUR OUT OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES ENTIRELY. AS A RESULT,
TODAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. MEANWHILE, A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE LOCATED OFF THE COASTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR FROM THE
COASTAL PLAIN DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE JET ALONG WITH
THE STRONG LATE MARCH SUN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE UPPER DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST START AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND IT SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY
LIFTS GRADUALLY THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. WE HAVE INDICATED A
PERIOD OF LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN
MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON COULD BRING LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF A QUARTER
TO A HALF INCH TO PARTS OF THE UPPER DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 800 PM AND 200 AM. SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
RATHER LIMITED. HOWEVER, IT IS A ROBUST FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SCATTERED THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S BY DAYBREAK ON
FRIDAY. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AND ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW
THERE. HOWEVER, ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AS
PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO BE
GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST FRI MRNG AND PRECIP WILL BE
COMING TO AN END FROM W TO E DURG THE COURSE OF THE MRNG HOURS.
PRECIP WILL LINGER LONGEST OVER SRN AND ERN SECTIONS WHERE IT CUD
LINGER INTO ERLY AFTN. THE MDLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO TODAY, AND MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP SHUD
BE OVER WITH BY 00Z SAT WITH EXCEPT FOR PSBLY THE DELMARVA.

LOW PRES IS THEN EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE CDFNT TO THE E FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM CAN ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A WEAK SFC TROF MAY DEVELOP ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE TROF
AND MOVE ACRS THE REGION BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THIS TROF
COUPLED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP H5 TROF COULD TRIGGER SOME
INSTABILITY SHWRS/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT, ESPECIALLY ACRS THE N. SO,
WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

THE LARGE HIGH THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND
CONDS DRY OUT. THE HIGH THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT AS LOW
PRES TREKS ACRS SRN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL BRING A WK CDFNT ACRS
NEW ENG AND ITS SRN EXTENT MAY BRUSH OUR NRN ZONES. THE FRONT WILL
NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT, BUT CUD TRIGGER SOME PRECIP WITH
IT MON INTO MON NIGHT.

THEN, THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
REGARD TO TUE. THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH WK HIGH PRES. THIS
CONTINUES INTO ERLY WED BEFORE LOW PRES APPROACHES. ON THE OTHER
HAND, THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING A WK AREA OF LOW PRES ACRS THE
REGION LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT THEN KEEPS WED DRY. THE CMC IS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. SO, FOR RIGHT NOW, WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST TUE AND KEEP LOW POPS ON WED AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL START OFF AROUND NRML ON FRI THEN PLUMMET BEHIND THE
CFP FOR SAT AND SUN. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NRML OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO NR NRML ON MON. THEY
WILL DROP A BIT FOR TUE BEHIND THE WK FRONT THEN BOUNCE BACK AGAIN
NR MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR KMIV AND
KACY THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND JET
LOCATED NEAR THE COAST.

CONDITIONS WERE IFR AT KTTN, KPNE AND KACY AROUND 0930Z AND THEY
WERE GENERALLY MVFR AT OUR REMAINING FIVE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO THE IFR CATEGORY THIS MORNING AT KPHL,
KILG, KMIV, KRDG AND KABE WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING
NORTHWARD AND AFFECTING MAINLY KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT THE PROBABILITY IS NOT
GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS OUR
TAF SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 0100Z AND 0500Z. IT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND LOW CONDITIONS. AGAIN, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDER AT THAT TIME BUT IT IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING MAY BEGIN TO FAVOR THE
EAST AROUND 4 TO 6 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WIND
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND IT IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. THE
WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING THEN IT WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHWR PSBL WITH LWR
CONDS MAINLY E ERLY. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHRA OR SHSN N
PSBL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN MAINLY N AND
W PSBL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER OUR
COASTAL WATERS TODAY BEFORE IT DRIFTS OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
BEING THAT THE WATER TEMPERATURE REMAINS QUITE COLD AND THE AIR
ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET IS RATHER MILD,
MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL BE LIMITED. WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT GUSTS
MAY REACH ONLY 25 OR 30 KNOTS EVEN AS THE LOW LEVEL JET SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 50 OR 60 KNOTS TODAY.

A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL
THE BOUNDARY ARRIVES. THE VISIBILITY WILL BE A HALF MILE OR LESS
OVER THE WATER.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT.

WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS AND FOR WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING
TO 5 TO 8 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCA CONDS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...WIND AND SEAS MAY ONCE AGAIN APPROACH
SCA CONDS ON STRONG NWLY FLOW. CONDS APPEAR MARGINAL, BUT
ADDITIONAL FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.

SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AS CONDS DECREASE TO BELOW
SCA CONDS.

SUN NIGHT-MON...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES AND STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 260737
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
337 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THEN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND, ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THAT FRONT
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST WELL OUT
TO SEA SATURDAY. UNSEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE WAS SOME CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND 330 AM. HOWEVER, THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD THIS MORNING AND CEILING
HEIGHTS SHOULD LOWER AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN INTO OUR AREA
ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALSO, MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVERHEAD STRENGTHENING THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. WE EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD PROGRESS NORTHWARD AND THEY ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR REGION FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD PASS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS. DEVELOPING LIFT AND
SUBTLE INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDER WITHIN THE AREA OF
SHOWERS.

THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH MUCH OF OUR REGION. THERE
REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIR WILL
ENTIRE SCOUR OUT OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. AS A RESULT, TODAY`S
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE, ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH. MEANWHILE, A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE LOCATED
OFF THE COASTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN DUE
TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE JET ALONG WITH THE STRONG LATE MARCH
SUN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ARE ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE
UPPER DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST START AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND IT SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS
GRADUALLY THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. WE HAVE INDICATED A PERIOD OF
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN MUCH
OF OUR REGION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON COULD BRING LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH TO PARTS OF THE UPPER DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 800 PM AND 200 AM. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED. HOWEVER, IT IS A ROBUST FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SCATTERED
THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.
READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW THERE. HOWEVER,
ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AS PRECIPITATION
RATES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST FRI MRNG AND PRECIP WILL BE
COMING TO AN END FROM W TO E DURG THE COURSE OF THE MRNG HOURS.
PRECIP WILL LINGER LONGEST OVER SRN AND ERN SECTIONS WHERE IT CUD
LINGER INTO ERLY AFTN. THE MDLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO TODAY, AND MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP SHUD
BE OVER WITH BY 00Z SAT WITH EXCEPT FOR PSBLY THE DELMARVA.

LOW PRES IS THEN EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE CDFNT TO THE E FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM CAN ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A WEAK SFC TROF MAY DEVELOP ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE TROF
AND MOVE ACRS THE REGION BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THIS TROF
COUPLED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP H5 TROF COULD TRIGGER SOME
INSTABILITY SHWRS/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT, ESPECIALLY ACRS THE N. SO,
WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

THE LARGE HIGH THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND
CONDS DRY OUT. THE HIGH THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT AS LOW
PRES TREKS ACRS SRN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL BRING A WK CDFNT ACRS
NEW ENG AND ITS SRN EXTENT MAY BRUSH OUR NRN ZONES. THE FRONT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT, BUT CUD TRIGGER SOME PRECIP
WITH IT MON INTO MON NIGHT.

THEN, THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
REGARD TO TUE. THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH WK HIGH PRES. THIS
CONTINUES INTO ERLY WED BEFORE LOW PRES APPROACHES. ON THE OTHER
HAND, THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING A WK AREA OF LOW PRES ACRS THE
REGION LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT THEN KEEPS WED DRY. THE CMC IS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. SO, FOR RIGHT NOW, WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST TUE AND KEEP LOW POPS ON WED AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL START OFF AROUND NRML ON FRI THEN PLUMMET BEHIND THE
CFP FOR SAT AND SUN. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NRML OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO NR NRML ON MON. THEY
WILL DROP A BIT FOR TUE BEHIND THE WK FRONT THEN BOUNCE BACK AGAIN
NR MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR KMIV AND KACY
THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND JET LOCATED
NEAR THE COAST.

VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL ABOUT 0900Z, THEN WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS FOR OUR TAF SITES FOR THIS
MORNING WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND AFFECTING
MAINLY KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. ISOLATED THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS OUR TAF
SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 0100Z AND 0500Z. IT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND LOW CONDITIONS. AGAIN, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER
AT THAT TIME BUT IT IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING MAY BEGIN TO FAVOR THE EAST
AROUND 4 TO 6 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WIND SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. THE WIND
IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING THEN IT WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHWR PSBL WITH LWR
CONDS MAINLY E ERLY. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHRA OR SHSN N
PSBL.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN MAINLY N AND
W PSBL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE THIS MORNING AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND FOR WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCA CONDS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...WIND AND SEAS MAY ONCE AGAIN APPROACH
SCA CONDS ON STRONG NWLY FLOW. CONDS APPEAR MARGINAL, BUT
ADDITIONAL FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.


SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AS CONDS DECREASE TO BELOW
SCA CONDS.

SUN NIGHT-MON...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES AND STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 260737
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
337 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THEN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND, ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THAT FRONT
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST WELL OUT
TO SEA SATURDAY. UNSEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE WAS SOME CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND 330 AM. HOWEVER, THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD THIS MORNING AND CEILING
HEIGHTS SHOULD LOWER AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN INTO OUR AREA
ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALSO, MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVERHEAD STRENGTHENING THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. WE EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD PROGRESS NORTHWARD AND THEY ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR REGION FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD PASS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS. DEVELOPING LIFT AND
SUBTLE INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDER WITHIN THE AREA OF
SHOWERS.

THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH MUCH OF OUR REGION. THERE
REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIR WILL
ENTIRE SCOUR OUT OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. AS A RESULT, TODAY`S
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE, ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH. MEANWHILE, A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE LOCATED
OFF THE COASTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN DUE
TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE JET ALONG WITH THE STRONG LATE MARCH
SUN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ARE ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE
UPPER DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST START AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND IT SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS
GRADUALLY THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. WE HAVE INDICATED A PERIOD OF
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN MUCH
OF OUR REGION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON COULD BRING LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH TO PARTS OF THE UPPER DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 800 PM AND 200 AM. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED. HOWEVER, IT IS A ROBUST FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SCATTERED
THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.
READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW THERE. HOWEVER,
ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AS PRECIPITATION
RATES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST FRI MRNG AND PRECIP WILL BE
COMING TO AN END FROM W TO E DURG THE COURSE OF THE MRNG HOURS.
PRECIP WILL LINGER LONGEST OVER SRN AND ERN SECTIONS WHERE IT CUD
LINGER INTO ERLY AFTN. THE MDLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO TODAY, AND MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP SHUD
BE OVER WITH BY 00Z SAT WITH EXCEPT FOR PSBLY THE DELMARVA.

LOW PRES IS THEN EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE CDFNT TO THE E FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM CAN ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A WEAK SFC TROF MAY DEVELOP ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE TROF
AND MOVE ACRS THE REGION BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THIS TROF
COUPLED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP H5 TROF COULD TRIGGER SOME
INSTABILITY SHWRS/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT, ESPECIALLY ACRS THE N. SO,
WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

THE LARGE HIGH THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND
CONDS DRY OUT. THE HIGH THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT AS LOW
PRES TREKS ACRS SRN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL BRING A WK CDFNT ACRS
NEW ENG AND ITS SRN EXTENT MAY BRUSH OUR NRN ZONES. THE FRONT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT, BUT CUD TRIGGER SOME PRECIP
WITH IT MON INTO MON NIGHT.

THEN, THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
REGARD TO TUE. THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH WK HIGH PRES. THIS
CONTINUES INTO ERLY WED BEFORE LOW PRES APPROACHES. ON THE OTHER
HAND, THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING A WK AREA OF LOW PRES ACRS THE
REGION LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT THEN KEEPS WED DRY. THE CMC IS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. SO, FOR RIGHT NOW, WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST TUE AND KEEP LOW POPS ON WED AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL START OFF AROUND NRML ON FRI THEN PLUMMET BEHIND THE
CFP FOR SAT AND SUN. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NRML OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO NR NRML ON MON. THEY
WILL DROP A BIT FOR TUE BEHIND THE WK FRONT THEN BOUNCE BACK AGAIN
NR MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR KMIV AND KACY
THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND JET LOCATED
NEAR THE COAST.

VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL ABOUT 0900Z, THEN WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS FOR OUR TAF SITES FOR THIS
MORNING WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND AFFECTING
MAINLY KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. ISOLATED THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS OUR TAF
SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 0100Z AND 0500Z. IT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND LOW CONDITIONS. AGAIN, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER
AT THAT TIME BUT IT IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING MAY BEGIN TO FAVOR THE EAST
AROUND 4 TO 6 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WIND SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. THE WIND
IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING THEN IT WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHWR PSBL WITH LWR
CONDS MAINLY E ERLY. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHRA OR SHSN N
PSBL.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN MAINLY N AND
W PSBL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE THIS MORNING AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND FOR WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCA CONDS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...WIND AND SEAS MAY ONCE AGAIN APPROACH
SCA CONDS ON STRONG NWLY FLOW. CONDS APPEAR MARGINAL, BUT
ADDITIONAL FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.


SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AS CONDS DECREASE TO BELOW
SCA CONDS.

SUN NIGHT-MON...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES AND STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 260737
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
337 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THEN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND, ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THAT FRONT
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST WELL OUT
TO SEA SATURDAY. UNSEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE WAS SOME CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND 330 AM. HOWEVER, THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD THIS MORNING AND CEILING
HEIGHTS SHOULD LOWER AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN INTO OUR AREA
ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALSO, MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVERHEAD STRENGTHENING THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. WE EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD PROGRESS NORTHWARD AND THEY ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR REGION FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD PASS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS. DEVELOPING LIFT AND
SUBTLE INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDER WITHIN THE AREA OF
SHOWERS.

THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH MUCH OF OUR REGION. THERE
REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIR WILL
ENTIRE SCOUR OUT OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. AS A RESULT, TODAY`S
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE, ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH. MEANWHILE, A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE LOCATED
OFF THE COASTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN DUE
TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE JET ALONG WITH THE STRONG LATE MARCH
SUN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ARE ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE
UPPER DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST START AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND IT SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS
GRADUALLY THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. WE HAVE INDICATED A PERIOD OF
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN MUCH
OF OUR REGION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON COULD BRING LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH TO PARTS OF THE UPPER DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 800 PM AND 200 AM. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED. HOWEVER, IT IS A ROBUST FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SCATTERED
THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.
READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW THERE. HOWEVER,
ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AS PRECIPITATION
RATES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST FRI MRNG AND PRECIP WILL BE
COMING TO AN END FROM W TO E DURG THE COURSE OF THE MRNG HOURS.
PRECIP WILL LINGER LONGEST OVER SRN AND ERN SECTIONS WHERE IT CUD
LINGER INTO ERLY AFTN. THE MDLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO TODAY, AND MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP SHUD
BE OVER WITH BY 00Z SAT WITH EXCEPT FOR PSBLY THE DELMARVA.

LOW PRES IS THEN EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE CDFNT TO THE E FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM CAN ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A WEAK SFC TROF MAY DEVELOP ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE TROF
AND MOVE ACRS THE REGION BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THIS TROF
COUPLED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP H5 TROF COULD TRIGGER SOME
INSTABILITY SHWRS/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT, ESPECIALLY ACRS THE N. SO,
WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

THE LARGE HIGH THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND
CONDS DRY OUT. THE HIGH THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT AS LOW
PRES TREKS ACRS SRN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL BRING A WK CDFNT ACRS
NEW ENG AND ITS SRN EXTENT MAY BRUSH OUR NRN ZONES. THE FRONT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT, BUT CUD TRIGGER SOME PRECIP
WITH IT MON INTO MON NIGHT.

THEN, THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
REGARD TO TUE. THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH WK HIGH PRES. THIS
CONTINUES INTO ERLY WED BEFORE LOW PRES APPROACHES. ON THE OTHER
HAND, THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING A WK AREA OF LOW PRES ACRS THE
REGION LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT THEN KEEPS WED DRY. THE CMC IS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. SO, FOR RIGHT NOW, WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST TUE AND KEEP LOW POPS ON WED AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL START OFF AROUND NRML ON FRI THEN PLUMMET BEHIND THE
CFP FOR SAT AND SUN. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NRML OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO NR NRML ON MON. THEY
WILL DROP A BIT FOR TUE BEHIND THE WK FRONT THEN BOUNCE BACK AGAIN
NR MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR KMIV AND KACY
THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND JET LOCATED
NEAR THE COAST.

VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL ABOUT 0900Z, THEN WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS FOR OUR TAF SITES FOR THIS
MORNING WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND AFFECTING
MAINLY KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. ISOLATED THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS OUR TAF
SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 0100Z AND 0500Z. IT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND LOW CONDITIONS. AGAIN, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER
AT THAT TIME BUT IT IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING MAY BEGIN TO FAVOR THE EAST
AROUND 4 TO 6 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WIND SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. THE WIND
IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING THEN IT WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHWR PSBL WITH LWR
CONDS MAINLY E ERLY. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHRA OR SHSN N
PSBL.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN MAINLY N AND
W PSBL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE THIS MORNING AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND FOR WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCA CONDS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...WIND AND SEAS MAY ONCE AGAIN APPROACH
SCA CONDS ON STRONG NWLY FLOW. CONDS APPEAR MARGINAL, BUT
ADDITIONAL FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.


SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AS CONDS DECREASE TO BELOW
SCA CONDS.

SUN NIGHT-MON...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES AND STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 260737
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
337 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THEN AS THE LOW CONTINUES TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND, ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THAT FRONT
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY AND HEAD NORTHEAST WELL OUT
TO SEA SATURDAY. UNSEASONABLY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILD
INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THAT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE WAS SOME CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AROUND 330 AM. HOWEVER, THE
LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND WESTWARD THIS MORNING AND CEILING
HEIGHTS SHOULD LOWER AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN INTO OUR AREA
ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. ALSO, MILD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
OVERHEAD STRENGTHENING THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION INTO THE MORNING
HOURS. WE EXPECT SOME FOG TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN THE TERRAIN OF
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

DEVELOPING RAIN SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD PROGRESS NORTHWARD AND THEY ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT OUR REGION FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD PASS OVER THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS. DEVELOPING LIFT AND
SUBTLE INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDER WITHIN THE AREA OF
SHOWERS.

THE PROBABILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS MAY DECREASE FOR A TIME THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH MUCH OF OUR REGION. THERE
REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIR WILL
ENTIRE SCOUR OUT OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. AS A RESULT, TODAY`S
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE, ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH. MEANWHILE, A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE LOCATED
OFF THE COASTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR FROM THE COASTAL PLAIN DUE
TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE JET ALONG WITH THE STRONG LATE MARCH
SUN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 ARE ANTICIPATED FOR PARTS OF THE
UPPER DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST START AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND IT SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY LIFTS
GRADUALLY THROUGH OUR REGION TODAY. WE HAVE INDICATED A PERIOD OF
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT.

RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY SHOULD BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH IN MUCH
OF OUR REGION. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON COULD BRING LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF A QUARTER TO A
HALF INCH TO PARTS OF THE UPPER DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS OUR REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 800 PM AND 200 AM. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED WITH AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER
LIMITED. HOWEVER, IT IS A ROBUST FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SCATTERED
THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S BY DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY.
READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
AND ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW THERE. HOWEVER,
ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE AS PRECIPITATION
RATES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST FRI MRNG AND PRECIP WILL BE
COMING TO AN END FROM W TO E DURG THE COURSE OF THE MRNG HOURS.
PRECIP WILL LINGER LONGEST OVER SRN AND ERN SECTIONS WHERE IT CUD
LINGER INTO ERLY AFTN. THE MDLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO TODAY, AND MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP SHUD
BE OVER WITH BY 00Z SAT WITH EXCEPT FOR PSBLY THE DELMARVA.

LOW PRES IS THEN EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE CDFNT TO THE E FRI NIGHT
INTO SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM CAN ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A WEAK SFC TROF MAY DEVELOP ON THE WRN SIDE OF THE TROF
AND MOVE ACRS THE REGION BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND THIS TROF
COUPLED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP H5 TROF COULD TRIGGER SOME
INSTABILITY SHWRS/SNOW SHOWERS ON SAT, ESPECIALLY ACRS THE N. SO,
WILL CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

THE LARGE HIGH THEN MOVE OVER THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND
CONDS DRY OUT. THE HIGH THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT AS LOW
PRES TREKS ACRS SRN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL BRING A WK CDFNT ACRS
NEW ENG AND ITS SRN EXTENT MAY BRUSH OUR NRN ZONES. THE FRONT
WILL NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT, BUT CUD TRIGGER SOME PRECIP
WITH IT MON INTO MON NIGHT.

THEN, THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH
REGARD TO TUE. THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY WITH WK HIGH PRES. THIS
CONTINUES INTO ERLY WED BEFORE LOW PRES APPROACHES. ON THE OTHER
HAND, THE ECMWF WANTS TO BRING A WK AREA OF LOW PRES ACRS THE
REGION LATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT THEN KEEPS WED DRY. THE CMC IS
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. SO, FOR RIGHT NOW, WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FCST TUE AND KEEP LOW POPS ON WED AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

TEMPS WILL START OFF AROUND NRML ON FRI THEN PLUMMET BEHIND THE
CFP FOR SAT AND SUN. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NRML OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO NR NRML ON MON. THEY
WILL DROP A BIT FOR TUE BEHIND THE WK FRONT THEN BOUNCE BACK AGAIN
NR MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR KMIV AND KACY
THIS MORNING DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND JET LOCATED
NEAR THE COAST.

VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL ABOUT 0900Z, THEN WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS FOR OUR TAF SITES FOR THIS
MORNING WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND AFFECTING
MAINLY KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. ISOLATED THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

SOME IMPROVEMENT INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY IS ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION.

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS OUR TAF
SITES BETWEEN ABOUT 0100Z AND 0500Z. IT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND LOW CONDITIONS. AGAIN, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER
AT THAT TIME BUT IT IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAFS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING MAY BEGIN TO FAVOR THE EAST
AROUND 4 TO 6 KNOTS IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. THE WIND SHOULD
BECOME SOUTHERLY AFTER THE FRONT PASSES AND IT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 14 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S. THE WIND
IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE A BIT THIS EVENING THEN IT WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-FRI NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHWR PSBL WITH LWR
CONDS MAINLY E ERLY. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHRA OR SHSN N
PSBL.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...VFR. HIGH PRESSURE.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHRA/SHSN MAINLY N AND
W PSBL. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE THIS MORNING AND A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
ARRIVE TONIGHT. WE WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND FOR WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
BUILDING TO 5 TO 8 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCA CONDS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...WIND AND SEAS MAY ONCE AGAIN APPROACH
SCA CONDS ON STRONG NWLY FLOW. CONDS APPEAR MARGINAL, BUT
ADDITIONAL FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.


SUN...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AS CONDS DECREASE TO BELOW
SCA CONDS.

SUN NIGHT-MON...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO AT LEAST
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE AS ANOTHER
FRONT APPROACHES AND STRONG HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG




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