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000
FXUS61 KPHI 051844
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
244 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TODAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION TUESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR OUR REGION
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW
TO START NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVING OFFSHORE
THIS AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SFC WINDS TODAY ALSO.  WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN SHOULD BE GENLY IN THE MID
80S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A GOOD SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH WELL INLAND BY EARLY
EVENING...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS OFF A BIT FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE
SHORE.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED OUT ALREADY, BUT THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPOTS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
SO. OTHERWISE, NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FCST. BUMPED TEMPS UP A BIT
IN THE REAL NEAR TERM BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
LOW PRES ALOFT...OVER MIDDLE TN EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NEWD TOWARDS US TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SLY FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH A GRADUAL
RETURN OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. THE MAIN EFFECT SHOULD BE MONDAY
AND BEYOND BUT HAVE KEPT A SLGT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
OVER DELMARVA. WINDS AT THE SFC WILL AGAIN BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND
CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE TOO THICK OR WIDESPREAD...SO OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF
DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA MONDAY MORNING
WEAKENS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY.
THEN A SEASONABLE SUMMERTIME WESTERLY FLOW OCCURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, FRAUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY, THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY-TUESDAY, 00Z/5 MEX MOS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/5 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION INSTABILITY BURST SHOWER/TSTM THREAT
DEVELOPS FROM SSW TO NNE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BEGINNING FIRST
OVER MD`S E SHORE AND SPREADING NORTHWARD, PRIMARILY INTO E PA MON
NIGHT. MONDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE HALFWAY
DECENT. CONSIDERABLE MORNING MID AND HIGH CLOUD THINS OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND/OR FOG APPEARS LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT (DENSE FOG ADVISORY?). WIND MAINLY S-SE
WITH MAX GUSTS 15 MPH. PWAT 1.5 INCHES AT PHL DAYBREAK MONDAY
INCREASES TO 1.85 MONDAY NIGHT. 1000JML CAPE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MD E SHORE AND DE. CONFIDENCE: OVERALL AVERAGE THOUGH BELOW
AVERAGE REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY, VERY WARM OR HOT, AND HUMID WITH A S-SW
WIND AND MAX GUSTS 20 MPH. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINS, MAINLY NE PA AND NNJ DURING THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING THEN THE RAIN THREAT DIMINISHES OR ENDS TUESDAY
NIGHT. 1000J MLCAPE, MAINLY NR I-95 KPHL NEWD.

PWAT NEAR 1.7 INCHES THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. COOLING COASTAL
SOUTHERLY SEABREEZES DURING THE DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
ONLY.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ON TEMPS AND BELOW AVERAGE AREAL COVERAGE OF
TSTMS. ONE WOULD THINK THIS WARM SECTOR PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE 90F
HEAT IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALSO SOME TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS IN
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER MID LVL COOL POOL PASSING
THROUGH. RIGHT NOW, K INDEX FCSTS SUGGEST THUNDER CHANCES ARE BEST
ALONG AND N OF I-78.


WEDNESDAY...HOT AND HUMID WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN TORRENTIAL RAIN
PRODUCING TSTMS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT.  BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE I-
78 NORTHWARD.  LESS THAN 1000J MLCAPE MAINLY I-78 NORTH.  PATCHY FOG
LATE WED NIGHT IN THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE. SW WIND WITH MAX GUSTS 20
MPH TURN NW AT NIGHT. PWAT NEAR 1.8 INCHES TO START THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE, IN PART BECAUSE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS HOT AS
I`D EXPECT WITH 17-18C AT 850MB.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DAY OF THE FCST. A CONTINUED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SINCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS?
SINE THE ECMWF STABILIZES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS RESTRICTED THE
THUNDER TO THU NIGHT WHEN WAA SHOULD REDEVELOP NEAR WEAK LOW
PRESSURE.

STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT ALONG WHAT MIGHT BE A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT I-78 NORTH. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. LIGHT WIND.
CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS HAVE RETURNED MOST EVERYWHERE AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
TAF PD. SOME LCL MVFR STILL HOLDING AT RDG, BUT SHUD DISSIPATE IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNG AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA... BUT BECOMING SLY THIS AFT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
AND A SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND ACROSS NJ AND DE. VFR CONDS SHOULD
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S-SE WIND MAX GUSTS 15
KT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A TSTM FROM KILG THROUGH
KPHL-KPNE-KRDG AND KABE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS PROBABLY LOWERING TO
MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS FOG BETWEEN 06Z-14Z/7.  LIGHT SOUTH WIND.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GRADIENT SW WIND GUST 15-20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOOKS A LOWER CHANCE OF IFR
ST/FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES. GRADIENT SW WIND PROBABLY GUSTS 15-20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE:AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
GENLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOMEWHAT STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH SLY WINDS BLOWING UP DEL BAY. HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE
TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN A SLY TO SELY FLOW OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE AN SCA MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR ATLANTIC SEAS
LATE TUESDAY BUT THE PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME IS
LOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE RIP CURRENT RISK HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO MODERATE FOR THE NEW
JERSEY COAST, WHICH IS BASED ON A REPORT FROM LBI AND ALSO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SEA BREEZE, ROUGHER NEARSHORE SURF AND A STRONGER
CURRENT. WE MAINTAINED A LOW RISK FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES GIVEN A
DIFFERENT ORIENTATION OF THE COAST COMPARED TO FARTHER NORTH.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 051326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TODAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION TUESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR OUR REGION
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW
TO START NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVING OFFSHORE
THIS AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SFC WINDS TODAY ALSO.  WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN SHOULD BE GENLY IN THE MID
80S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A GOOD SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH WELL INLAND BY EARLY
EVENING...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS OFF A BIT FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE
SHORE.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED OUT ALREADY, BUT THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPOTS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
SO. OTHERWISE, NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FCST. BUMPED TEMPS UP A BIT
IN THE REAL NEAR TERM BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
LOW PRES ALOFT...OVER MIDDLE TN EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NEWD TOWARDS US TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SLY FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH A GRADUAL
RETURN OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. THE MAIN EFFECT SHOULD BE MONDAY
AND BEYOND BUT HAVE KEPT A SLGT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
OVER DELMARVA. WINDS AT THE SFC WILL AGAIN BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND
CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE TOO THICK OR WIDESPREAD...SO OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF
DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA MONDAY MORNING
WEAKENS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY.
THEN A SEASONABLE SUMMERTIME WESTERLY FLOW OCCURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, FRAUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY, THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY-TUESDAY, 00Z/5 MEX MOS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/5 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION INSTABILITY BURST SHOWER/TSTM THREAT
DEVELOPS FROM SSW TO NNE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BEGINNING FIRST
OVER MD`S E SHORE AND SPREADING NORTHWARD, PRIMARILY INTO E PA MON
NIGHT. MONDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE HALFWAY
DECENT. CONSIDERABLE MORNING MID AND HIGH CLOUD THINS OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND/OR FOG APPEARS LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT (DENSE FOG ADVISORY?). WIND MAINLY S-SE
WITH MAX GUSTS 15 MPH. PWAT 1.5 INCHES AT PHL DAYBREAK MONDAY
INCREASES TO 1.85 MONDAY NIGHT. 1000JML CAPE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MD E SHORE AND DE. CONFIDENCE: OVERALL AVERAGE THOUGH BELOW
AVERAGE REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY, VERY WARM OR HOT, AND HUMID WITH A S-SW
WIND AND MAX GUSTS 20 MPH. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINS, MAINLY NE PA AND NNJ DURING THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING THEN THE RAIN THREAT DIMINISHES OR ENDS TUESDAY
NIGHT. 1000J MLCAPE, MAINLY NR I-95 KPHL NEWD.

PWAT NEAR 1.7 INCHES THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. COOLING COASTAL
SOUTHERLY SEABREEZES DURING THE DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
ONLY.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ON TEMPS AND BELOW AVERAGE AREAL COVERAGE OF
TSTMS. ONE WOULD THINK THIS WARM SECTOR PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE 90F
HEAT IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALSO SOME TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS IN
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER MID LVL COOL POOL PASSING
THROUGH. RIGHT NOW, K INDEX FCSTS SUGGEST THUNDER CHANCES ARE BEST
ALONG AND N OF I-78.


WEDNESDAY...HOT AND HUMID WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN TORRENTIAL RAIN
PRODUCING TSTMS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT.  BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE I-
78 NORTHWARD.  LESS THAN 1000J MLCAPE MAINLY I-78 NORTH.  PATCHY FOG
LATE WED NIGHT IN THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE. SW WIND WITH MAX GUSTS 20
MPH TURN NW AT NIGHT. PWAT NEAR 1.8 INCHES TO START THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE, IN PART BECAUSE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS HOT AS
I`D EXPECT WITH 17-18C AT 850MB.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DAY OF THE FCST. A CONTINUED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SINCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS?
SINE THE ECMWF STABILIZES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS RESTRICTED THE
THUNDER TO THU NIGHT WHEN WAA SHOULD REDEVELOP NEAR WEAK LOW
PRESSURE.

STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT ALONG WHAT MIGHT BE A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT I-78 NORTH. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. LIGHT WIND.
CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS HAVE RETURNED MOST EVERYWHERE AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
TAF PD. SOME LCL MVFR STILL HOLDING AT RDG, BUT SHUD DISSIPATE IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNG AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA... BUT BECOMING SLY THIS AFT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
AND A SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND ACROSS NJ AND DE. VFR CONDS SHOULD
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S-SE WIND MAX GUSTS 15
KT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A TSTM FROM KILG THROUGH
KPHL-KPNE-KRDG AND KABE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS PROBABLY LOWERING TO
MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS FOG BETWEEN 06Z-14Z/7.  LIGHT SOUTH WIND.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GRADIENT SW WIND GUST 15-20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOOKS A LOWER CHANCE OF IFR
ST/FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES. GRADIENT SW WIND PROBABLY GUSTS 15-20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE:AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
GENLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOMEWHAT STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH SLY WINDS BLOWING UP DEL BAY. HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE
TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN A SLY TO SELY FLOW OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE AN SCA MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR ATLANTIC SEAS
LATE TUESDAY BUT THE PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME IS
LOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW RISK TODAY FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. LOW
DOES NOT MEAN NO RISK.

LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS ROUGH OUT THERE THIS MORNING THAN
COMPARED TO YDY PER OUR LBI OBSERVER. THE LEFTOVER SWELL FROM
YDYS LITTLE SEAWARD MOVING VIRGINIA CAPES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD SETTLE SLIGHTLY LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE TIDE
WILL BE GOING OUT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH TENDS TO BE THE MORE
DANGEROUS TIME FOR FORMING RIP CURRENTS.

ENJOY THE BEACHES AND SWIM UNDER THE WATCHFUL SAFETY NET OF THE
VIGILANT AND RESPONSIVE LIFE GUARD CREWS UP AND DOWN OUR COASTS.

SWIMMING ALONE OR NEAR JETTIES AND PIERS IS LESS SAFE AND NOT A
BEST PRACTICE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 051326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TODAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION TUESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR OUR REGION
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW
TO START NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVING OFFSHORE
THIS AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SFC WINDS TODAY ALSO.  WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN SHOULD BE GENLY IN THE MID
80S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A GOOD SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH WELL INLAND BY EARLY
EVENING...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS OFF A BIT FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE
SHORE.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED OUT ALREADY, BUT THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPOTS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
SO. OTHERWISE, NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FCST. BUMPED TEMPS UP A BIT
IN THE REAL NEAR TERM BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
LOW PRES ALOFT...OVER MIDDLE TN EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NEWD TOWARDS US TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SLY FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH A GRADUAL
RETURN OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. THE MAIN EFFECT SHOULD BE MONDAY
AND BEYOND BUT HAVE KEPT A SLGT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
OVER DELMARVA. WINDS AT THE SFC WILL AGAIN BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND
CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE TOO THICK OR WIDESPREAD...SO OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF
DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA MONDAY MORNING
WEAKENS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY.
THEN A SEASONABLE SUMMERTIME WESTERLY FLOW OCCURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, FRAUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY, THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY-TUESDAY, 00Z/5 MEX MOS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/5 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION INSTABILITY BURST SHOWER/TSTM THREAT
DEVELOPS FROM SSW TO NNE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BEGINNING FIRST
OVER MD`S E SHORE AND SPREADING NORTHWARD, PRIMARILY INTO E PA MON
NIGHT. MONDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE HALFWAY
DECENT. CONSIDERABLE MORNING MID AND HIGH CLOUD THINS OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND/OR FOG APPEARS LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT (DENSE FOG ADVISORY?). WIND MAINLY S-SE
WITH MAX GUSTS 15 MPH. PWAT 1.5 INCHES AT PHL DAYBREAK MONDAY
INCREASES TO 1.85 MONDAY NIGHT. 1000JML CAPE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MD E SHORE AND DE. CONFIDENCE: OVERALL AVERAGE THOUGH BELOW
AVERAGE REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY, VERY WARM OR HOT, AND HUMID WITH A S-SW
WIND AND MAX GUSTS 20 MPH. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINS, MAINLY NE PA AND NNJ DURING THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING THEN THE RAIN THREAT DIMINISHES OR ENDS TUESDAY
NIGHT. 1000J MLCAPE, MAINLY NR I-95 KPHL NEWD.

PWAT NEAR 1.7 INCHES THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. COOLING COASTAL
SOUTHERLY SEABREEZES DURING THE DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
ONLY.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ON TEMPS AND BELOW AVERAGE AREAL COVERAGE OF
TSTMS. ONE WOULD THINK THIS WARM SECTOR PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE 90F
HEAT IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALSO SOME TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS IN
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER MID LVL COOL POOL PASSING
THROUGH. RIGHT NOW, K INDEX FCSTS SUGGEST THUNDER CHANCES ARE BEST
ALONG AND N OF I-78.


WEDNESDAY...HOT AND HUMID WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN TORRENTIAL RAIN
PRODUCING TSTMS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT.  BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE I-
78 NORTHWARD.  LESS THAN 1000J MLCAPE MAINLY I-78 NORTH.  PATCHY FOG
LATE WED NIGHT IN THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE. SW WIND WITH MAX GUSTS 20
MPH TURN NW AT NIGHT. PWAT NEAR 1.8 INCHES TO START THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE, IN PART BECAUSE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS HOT AS
I`D EXPECT WITH 17-18C AT 850MB.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DAY OF THE FCST. A CONTINUED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SINCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS?
SINE THE ECMWF STABILIZES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS RESTRICTED THE
THUNDER TO THU NIGHT WHEN WAA SHOULD REDEVELOP NEAR WEAK LOW
PRESSURE.

STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT ALONG WHAT MIGHT BE A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT I-78 NORTH. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. LIGHT WIND.
CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS HAVE RETURNED MOST EVERYWHERE AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
TAF PD. SOME LCL MVFR STILL HOLDING AT RDG, BUT SHUD DISSIPATE IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNG AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA... BUT BECOMING SLY THIS AFT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
AND A SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND ACROSS NJ AND DE. VFR CONDS SHOULD
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S-SE WIND MAX GUSTS 15
KT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A TSTM FROM KILG THROUGH
KPHL-KPNE-KRDG AND KABE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS PROBABLY LOWERING TO
MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS FOG BETWEEN 06Z-14Z/7.  LIGHT SOUTH WIND.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GRADIENT SW WIND GUST 15-20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOOKS A LOWER CHANCE OF IFR
ST/FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES. GRADIENT SW WIND PROBABLY GUSTS 15-20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE:AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
GENLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOMEWHAT STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH SLY WINDS BLOWING UP DEL BAY. HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE
TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN A SLY TO SELY FLOW OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE AN SCA MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR ATLANTIC SEAS
LATE TUESDAY BUT THE PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME IS
LOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW RISK TODAY FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. LOW
DOES NOT MEAN NO RISK.

LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS ROUGH OUT THERE THIS MORNING THAN
COMPARED TO YDY PER OUR LBI OBSERVER. THE LEFTOVER SWELL FROM
YDYS LITTLE SEAWARD MOVING VIRGINIA CAPES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD SETTLE SLIGHTLY LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE TIDE
WILL BE GOING OUT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH TENDS TO BE THE MORE
DANGEROUS TIME FOR FORMING RIP CURRENTS.

ENJOY THE BEACHES AND SWIM UNDER THE WATCHFUL SAFETY NET OF THE
VIGILANT AND RESPONSIVE LIFE GUARD CREWS UP AND DOWN OUR COASTS.

SWIMMING ALONE OR NEAR JETTIES AND PIERS IS LESS SAFE AND NOT A
BEST PRACTICE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 051326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
926 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TODAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION TUESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR OUR REGION
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW
TO START NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVING OFFSHORE
THIS AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SFC WINDS TODAY ALSO.  WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN SHOULD BE GENLY IN THE MID
80S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A GOOD SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH WELL INLAND BY EARLY
EVENING...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS OFF A BIT FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE
SHORE.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE PRETTY MUCH CLEARED OUT ALREADY, BUT THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPOTS WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
SO. OTHERWISE, NO SIG CHANGES TO THE FCST. BUMPED TEMPS UP A BIT
IN THE REAL NEAR TERM BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
LOW PRES ALOFT...OVER MIDDLE TN EARLY THIS MRNG...WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NEWD TOWARDS US TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING SLY FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH A GRADUAL
RETURN OF CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. THE MAIN EFFECT SHOULD BE MONDAY
AND BEYOND BUT HAVE KEPT A SLGT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
OVER DELMARVA. WINDS AT THE SFC WILL AGAIN BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND
CLOUDS SHOULD NOT BE TOO THICK OR WIDESPREAD...SO OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF
DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA MONDAY MORNING
WEAKENS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY.
THEN A SEASONABLE SUMMERTIME WESTERLY FLOW OCCURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, FRAUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY, THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY-TUESDAY, 00Z/5 MEX MOS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/5 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION INSTABILITY BURST SHOWER/TSTM THREAT
DEVELOPS FROM SSW TO NNE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BEGINNING FIRST
OVER MD`S E SHORE AND SPREADING NORTHWARD, PRIMARILY INTO E PA MON
NIGHT. MONDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE HALFWAY
DECENT. CONSIDERABLE MORNING MID AND HIGH CLOUD THINS OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND/OR FOG APPEARS LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT (DENSE FOG ADVISORY?). WIND MAINLY S-SE
WITH MAX GUSTS 15 MPH. PWAT 1.5 INCHES AT PHL DAYBREAK MONDAY
INCREASES TO 1.85 MONDAY NIGHT. 1000JML CAPE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MD E SHORE AND DE. CONFIDENCE: OVERALL AVERAGE THOUGH BELOW
AVERAGE REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY, VERY WARM OR HOT, AND HUMID WITH A S-SW
WIND AND MAX GUSTS 20 MPH. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINS, MAINLY NE PA AND NNJ DURING THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING THEN THE RAIN THREAT DIMINISHES OR ENDS TUESDAY
NIGHT. 1000J MLCAPE, MAINLY NR I-95 KPHL NEWD.

PWAT NEAR 1.7 INCHES THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. COOLING COASTAL
SOUTHERLY SEABREEZES DURING THE DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
ONLY.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ON TEMPS AND BELOW AVERAGE AREAL COVERAGE OF
TSTMS. ONE WOULD THINK THIS WARM SECTOR PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE 90F
HEAT IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALSO SOME TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS IN
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER MID LVL COOL POOL PASSING
THROUGH. RIGHT NOW, K INDEX FCSTS SUGGEST THUNDER CHANCES ARE BEST
ALONG AND N OF I-78.


WEDNESDAY...HOT AND HUMID WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN TORRENTIAL RAIN
PRODUCING TSTMS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT.  BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE I-
78 NORTHWARD.  LESS THAN 1000J MLCAPE MAINLY I-78 NORTH.  PATCHY FOG
LATE WED NIGHT IN THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE. SW WIND WITH MAX GUSTS 20
MPH TURN NW AT NIGHT. PWAT NEAR 1.8 INCHES TO START THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE, IN PART BECAUSE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS HOT AS
I`D EXPECT WITH 17-18C AT 850MB.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DAY OF THE FCST. A CONTINUED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SINCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS?
SINE THE ECMWF STABILIZES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS RESTRICTED THE
THUNDER TO THU NIGHT WHEN WAA SHOULD REDEVELOP NEAR WEAK LOW
PRESSURE.

STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT ALONG WHAT MIGHT BE A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT I-78 NORTH. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. LIGHT WIND.
CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS HAVE RETURNED MOST EVERYWHERE AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
TAF PD. SOME LCL MVFR STILL HOLDING AT RDG, BUT SHUD DISSIPATE IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNG AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA... BUT BECOMING SLY THIS AFT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE
AND A SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND ACROSS NJ AND DE. VFR CONDS SHOULD
ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S-SE WIND MAX GUSTS 15
KT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A TSTM FROM KILG THROUGH
KPHL-KPNE-KRDG AND KABE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS PROBABLY LOWERING TO
MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS FOG BETWEEN 06Z-14Z/7.  LIGHT SOUTH WIND.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GRADIENT SW WIND GUST 15-20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOOKS A LOWER CHANCE OF IFR
ST/FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES. GRADIENT SW WIND PROBABLY GUSTS 15-20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE:AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
GENLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOMEWHAT STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH SLY WINDS BLOWING UP DEL BAY. HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE
TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN A SLY TO SELY FLOW OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE AN SCA MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR ATLANTIC SEAS
LATE TUESDAY BUT THE PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME IS
LOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW RISK TODAY FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. LOW
DOES NOT MEAN NO RISK.

LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS ROUGH OUT THERE THIS MORNING THAN
COMPARED TO YDY PER OUR LBI OBSERVER. THE LEFTOVER SWELL FROM
YDYS LITTLE SEAWARD MOVING VIRGINIA CAPES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD SETTLE SLIGHTLY LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE TIDE
WILL BE GOING OUT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH TENDS TO BE THE MORE
DANGEROUS TIME FOR FORMING RIP CURRENTS.

ENJOY THE BEACHES AND SWIM UNDER THE WATCHFUL SAFETY NET OF THE
VIGILANT AND RESPONSIVE LIFE GUARD CREWS UP AND DOWN OUR COASTS.

SWIMMING ALONE OR NEAR JETTIES AND PIERS IS LESS SAFE AND NOT A
BEST PRACTICE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 050900
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
500 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TODAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION TUESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR OUR REGION
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW
TO START NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVING OFFSHORE
THIS AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SFC WINDS TODAY ALSO. LOW
CLOUDS FROM YDA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS...ALTHO DRIER AIR ALOFT IS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. THE
STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO DISSIPATE THESE CLOUDS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN SHOULD
BE GENLY IN THE MID 80S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
GOOD SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH
WELL INLAND BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS OFF A BIT
FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
LOW PRES ALOFT...OVER MIDDLE TN EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NEWD TOWARDS US TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
SLY FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. THE MAIN EFFECT SHOULD BE MONDAY AND BEYOND BUT
HAVE KEPT A SLGT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT OVER DELMARVA.
WINDS AT THE SFC WILL AGAIN BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND CLOUDS SHOULD
NOT BE TOO THICK OR WIDESPREAD...SO OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA MONDAY MORNING
WEAKENS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY.
THEN A SEASONABLE SUMMERTIME WESTERLY FLOW OCCURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, FRAUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY, THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY-TUESDAY, 00Z/5 MEX MOS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/5 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION INSTABILITY BURST SHOWER/TSTM THREAT
DEVELOPS FROM SSW TO NNE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BEGINNING FIRST
OVER MD`S E SHORE AND SPREADING NORTHWARD, PRIMARILY INTO E PA MON
NIGHT. MONDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE HALFWAY
DECENT. CONSIDERABLE MORNING MID AND HIGH CLOUD THINS OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND/OR FOG APPEARS LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT (DENSE FOG ADVISORY?). WIND MAINLY S-SE
WITH MAX GUSTS 15 MPH. PWAT 1.5 INCHES AT PHL DAYBREAK MONDAY
INCREASES TO 1.85 MONDAY NIGHT. 1000JML CAPE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MD E SHORE AND DE. CONFIDENCE: OVERALL AVERAGE THOUGH BELOW
AVERAGE REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY, VERY WARM OR HOT, AND HUMID WITH A S-SW
WIND AND MAX GUSTS 20 MPH. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINS, MAINLY NE PA AND NNJ DURING THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING THEN THE RAIN THREAT DIMINISHES OR ENDS TUESDAY
NIGHT. 1000J MLCAPE, MAINLY NR I-95 KPHL NEWD.

PWAT NEAR 1.7 INCHES THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. COOLING COASTAL
SOUTHERLY SEABREEZES DURING THE DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS
ONLY.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ON TEMPS AND BELOW AVERAGE AREAL COVERAGE OF
TSTMS. ONE WOULD THINK THIS WARM SECTOR PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE 90F
HEAT IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALSO SOME TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS IN
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER MID LVL COOL POOL PASSING
THROUGH. RIGHT NOW, K INDEX FCSTS SUGGEST THUNDER CHANCES ARE BEST
ALONG AND N OF I-78.


WEDNESDAY...HOT AND HUMID WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN TORRENTIAL RAIN
PRODUCING TSTMS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT.  BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE I-
78 NORTHWARD.  LESS THAN 1000J MLCAPE MAINLY I-78 NORTH.  PATCHY FOG
LATE WED NIGHT IN THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE. SW WIND WITH MAX GUSTS 20
MPH TURN NW AT NIGHT. PWAT NEAR 1.8 INCHES TO START THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE, IN PART BECAUSE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS HOT AS
I`D EXPECT WITH 17-18C AT 850MB.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DAY OF THE FCST. A CONTINUED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SINCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS?
SINE THE ECMWF STABILIZES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS RESTRICTED THE
THUNDER TO THU NIGHT WHEN WAA SHOULD REDEVELOP NEAR WEAK LOW
PRESSURE.

STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT ALONG WHAT MIGHT BE A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT I-78 NORTH. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. LIGHT WIND.
CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE NOTED EARLY THIS MORNING AT ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT
RDG. BEFORE SUNRISE SOME CIGS MAY FLIRT WITH MVFR BUT THEN A STRONG
JUL SUN SHOULD DISSIPATE CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THIS MORNG AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...
BUT BECOMING SLY THIS AFT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A SEA
BREEZE PUSHES INLAND ACROSS NJ AND DE. VFR CONDS SHOULD ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S-SE WIND MAX GUSTS 15
KT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A TSTM FROM KILG THROUGH
KPHL-KPNE-KRDG AND KABE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS PROBABLY LOWERING TO
MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS FOG BETWEEN 06Z-14Z/7.  LIGHT SOUTH WIND.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GRADIENT SW WIND GUST 15-20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOOKS A LOWER CHANCE OF IFR
ST/FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES. GRADIENT SW WIND PROBABLY GUSTS 15-20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE:AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
GENLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOMEWHAT STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH SLY WINDS BLOWING UP DEL BAY. HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE
TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN A SLY TO SELY FLOW OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE AN SCA MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR ATLANTIC SEAS
LATE TUESDAY BUT THE PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME IS
LOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW RISK TODAY FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. LOW
DOES NOT MEAN NO RISK.

LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS ROUGH OUT THERE THIS MORNING THAN
COMPARED TO YDY PER OUR LBI OBSERVER. THE LEFTOVER SWELL FROM
YDYS LITTLE SEAWARD MOVING VIRGINIA CAPES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD SETTLE SLIGHTLY LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE TIDE
WILL BE GOING OUT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH TENDS TO BE THE MORE
DANGEROUS TIME FOR FORMING RIP CURRENTS.

ENJOY THE BEACHES AND SWIM UNDER THE WATCHFUL SAFETY NET OF THE
VIGILANT AND RESPONSIVE LIFE GUARD CREWS UP AND DOWN OUR COASTS.

SWIMMING ALONE OR NEAR JETTIES AND PIERS IS LESS SAFE AND NOT A
BEST PRACTICE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG 5A
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
RIP CURRENTS...5A




000
FXUS61 KPHI 050800
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TODAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION TUESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR OUR REGION
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW
TO START NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVING OFFSHORE
THIS AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SFC WINDS TODAY ALSO. LOW
CLOUDS FROM YDA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS...ALTHO DRIER AIR ALOFT IS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. THE
STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO DISSIPATE THESE CLOUDS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN SHOULD
BE GENLY IN THE MID 80S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
GOOD SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH
WELL INLAND BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS OFF A BIT
FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
LOW PRES ALOFT...OVER MIDDLE TN EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NEWD TOWARDS US TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
SLY FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. THE MAIN EFFECT SHOULD BE MONDAY AND BEYOND BUT
HAVE KEPT A SLGT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT OVER DELMARVA.
WINDS AT THE SFC WILL AGAIN BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND CLOUDS SHOULD
NOT BE TOO THICK OR WIDESPREAD...SO OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

500 MB: THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA MONDAY MORNING
WEAKENS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY.
THEN A SEASONABLE SUMMERTIME WESTERLY FLOW OCCURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, FRAUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY, THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY-TUESDAY, 00Z/5 MEX MOS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/5 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION INSTABILITY BURST SHOWER/TSTM THREAT
DEVELOPS FROM SSW TO NNE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BEGINNING FIRST
OVER MD`S E SHORE AND SPREADING NORTHWARD, PRIMARILY INTO E PA MON
NIGHT. MONDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE HALFWAY
DECENT. CONSIDERABLE MORNING MID AND HIGH CLOUD THINS OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND/OR FOG APPEARS LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT (DENSE FOG ADVISORY?). WIND MAINLY S-SE
WITH MAX GUSTS 15 MPH. PWAT 1.5 INCHES AT PHL DAYBREAK MONDAY
INCREASES TO 1.75 MONDAY NIGHT. 1000JML CAPE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MD E SHORE AND DE. CONFIDENCE: OVERALL AVERAGE THOUGH BELOW
AVERAGE REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY, VERY WARM OR HOT, AND HUMID WITH A S-SW
WIND AND MAX GUSTS 20 MPH. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINS, MAINLY NE PA AND NNJ DURING THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING THEN THE RAIN THREAT DIMINISHES OR ENDS TUESDAY
NIGHT. 1000J MLCAPE, MAINLY NR I-95 KPHL NEWD.

PWAT NEAR 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. COOLING
COASTAL SOUTHERLY SEABREEZES DURING THE DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTS ONLY.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ON TEMPS AND BELOW AVERAGE AREAL COVERAGE OF
TSTMS. ONE WOULD THINK THIS WARM SECTOR PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE 90F
HEAT IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALSO SOME TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS IN
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER MID LVL COOL POOL PASSING
THROUGH. RIGHT NOW, K INDEX FCSTS SUGGEST THUNDER CHANCES ARE BEST
ALONG AND N OF I-78.


WEDNESDAY...HOT AND HUMID WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN TORRENTIAL RAIN
PRODUCING TSTMS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT.  BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE I-
78 NORTHWARD.  LESS THAN 1000J MLCAPE MAINLY I-78 NORTH.  PATCHY FOG
LATE WED NIGHT IN THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE. SW WIND WITH MAX GUSTS 20
MPH TURN NW AT NIGHT.  PWAT NEAR 1.7 INCHES TO START THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE, IN PART BECAUSE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS HOT AS
I`D EXPECT WITH 17-18C AT 850MB.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DAY OF THE FCST. A CONTINUED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SINCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS?
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT ALONG WHAT MIGHT BE A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT I-78 NORTH. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. LIGHT WIND.
CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE NOTED EARLY THIS MORNING AT ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT
RDG. BEFORE SUNRISE SOME CIGS MAY FLIRT WITH MVFR BUT THEN A STRONG
JUL SUN SHOULD DISSIPATE CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THIS MORNG AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...
BUT BECOMING SLY THIS AFT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A SEA
BREEZE PUSHES INLAND ACROSS NJ AND DE. VFR CONDS SHOULD ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S-SE WIND MAX GUSTS 15
KT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A TSTM FROM KILG THROUGH
KPHL-KPNE-KRDG AND KABE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS PROBABLY LOWERING TO
MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS FOG BETWEEN 06Z-14Z/7.  LIGHT SOUTH WIND.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GRADIENT SW WIND GUST 15-20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOOKS A LOWER CHANCE OF IFR
ST/FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES. GRADIENT SW WIND PROBABLY GUSTS 15-20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE:AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
GENLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOMEWHAT STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH SLY WINDS BLOWING UP DEL BAY. HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE
TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN A SLY TO SELY FLOW OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE AN SCA MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR ATLANTIC SEAS
LATE TUESDAY BUT THE PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME IS
LOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUES TODAY FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THIS IS DUE TO AN ONSHORE
FLOW WHICH IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE HOWEVER IT SHOULD BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY, ESPECIALLY DURING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME ENHANCED RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE ANGLE OF
INCIDENCE ALONG THE NJ COAST. OTHERWISE, A LOW RISK IS MAINTAINED
FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 4A
NEAR TERM...AMC 4A
SHORT TERM...AMC 4A
LONG TERM...DRAG 4A
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG 4A
MARINE...AMC/DRAG 4A
RIP CURRENTS...4A





000
FXUS61 KPHI 050800
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MOVES OFFSHORE LATE
TODAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION TUESDAY
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR OUR REGION
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD FOLLOW
TO START NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVING OFFSHORE
THIS AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SFC WINDS TODAY ALSO. LOW
CLOUDS FROM YDA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS...ALTHO DRIER AIR ALOFT IS PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST. THE
STRONG JULY SUN SHOULD BE ABLE TO DISSIPATE THESE CLOUDS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN SHOULD
BE GENLY IN THE MID 80S...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A
GOOD SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSH
WELL INLAND BY EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL COOL THINGS OFF A BIT
FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
LOW PRES ALOFT...OVER MIDDLE TN EARLY THIS MORNG...WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NEWD TOWARDS US TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
SLY FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WITH A GRADUAL RETURN OF
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. THE MAIN EFFECT SHOULD BE MONDAY AND BEYOND BUT
HAVE KEPT A SLGT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT OVER DELMARVA.
WINDS AT THE SFC WILL AGAIN BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND CLOUDS SHOULD
NOT BE TOO THICK OR WIDESPREAD...SO OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS NORTH OF DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

500 MB: THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW OVER WEST VIRGINIA MONDAY MORNING
WEAKENS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY.
THEN A SEASONABLE SUMMERTIME WESTERLY FLOW OCCURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND, FRAUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY, THEN AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/5 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY-TUESDAY, 00Z/5 MEX MOS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN THE 0541Z/5 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

THE DAILIES BELOW...

MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION INSTABILITY BURST SHOWER/TSTM THREAT
DEVELOPS FROM SSW TO NNE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, BEGINNING FIRST
OVER MD`S E SHORE AND SPREADING NORTHWARD, PRIMARILY INTO E PA MON
NIGHT. MONDAY DURING THE DAY FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE HALFWAY
DECENT. CONSIDERABLE MORNING MID AND HIGH CLOUD THINS OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS AND/OR FOG APPEARS LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT (DENSE FOG ADVISORY?). WIND MAINLY S-SE
WITH MAX GUSTS 15 MPH. PWAT 1.5 INCHES AT PHL DAYBREAK MONDAY
INCREASES TO 1.75 MONDAY NIGHT. 1000JML CAPE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MD E SHORE AND DE. CONFIDENCE: OVERALL AVERAGE THOUGH BELOW
AVERAGE REGARDING AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.

TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY, VERY WARM OR HOT, AND HUMID WITH A S-SW
WIND AND MAX GUSTS 20 MPH. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINS, MAINLY NE PA AND NNJ DURING THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING THEN THE RAIN THREAT DIMINISHES OR ENDS TUESDAY
NIGHT. 1000J MLCAPE, MAINLY NR I-95 KPHL NEWD.

PWAT NEAR 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. COOLING
COASTAL SOUTHERLY SEABREEZES DURING THE DAY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTS ONLY.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ON TEMPS AND BELOW AVERAGE AREAL COVERAGE OF
TSTMS. ONE WOULD THINK THIS WARM SECTOR PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE 90F
HEAT IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ALSO SOME TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS IN
TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFTOVER MID LVL COOL POOL PASSING
THROUGH. RIGHT NOW, K INDEX FCSTS SUGGEST THUNDER CHANCES ARE BEST
ALONG AND N OF I-78.


WEDNESDAY...HOT AND HUMID WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN TORRENTIAL RAIN
PRODUCING TSTMS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT.  BEST CHC APPEARS TO BE I-
78 NORTHWARD.  LESS THAN 1000J MLCAPE MAINLY I-78 NORTH.  PATCHY FOG
LATE WED NIGHT IN THE WEAK FRONTAL ZONE. SW WIND WITH MAX GUSTS 20
MPH TURN NW AT NIGHT.  PWAT NEAR 1.7 INCHES TO START THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE, IN PART BECAUSE THE ECMWF IS NOT AS HOT AS
I`D EXPECT WITH 17-18C AT 850MB.

THURSDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS DAY OF THE FCST. A CONTINUED
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS SINCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS?
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE LATE THU NIGHT ALONG WHAT MIGHT BE A WEAK
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT I-78 NORTH. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. LIGHT WIND.
CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE NOTED EARLY THIS MORNING AT ALL OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT
RDG. BEFORE SUNRISE SOME CIGS MAY FLIRT WITH MVFR BUT THEN A STRONG
JUL SUN SHOULD DISSIPATE CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THIS MORNG AS WEAK SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...
BUT BECOMING SLY THIS AFT AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A SEA
BREEZE PUSHES INLAND ACROSS NJ AND DE. VFR CONDS SHOULD ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. S-SE WIND MAX GUSTS 15
KT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A TSTM FROM KILG THROUGH
KPHL-KPNE-KRDG AND KABE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS PROBABLY LOWERING TO
MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS FOG BETWEEN 06Z-14Z/7.  LIGHT SOUTH WIND.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GRADIENT SW WIND GUST 15-20 KT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOOKS A LOWER CHANCE OF IFR
ST/FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY THAN THE PREVIOUS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES. GRADIENT SW WIND PROBABLY GUSTS 15-20 KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE:AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
GENLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOMEWHAT STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH SLY WINDS BLOWING UP DEL BAY. HIGH PRES MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE
TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN A SLY TO SELY FLOW OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE AN SCA MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR ATLANTIC SEAS
LATE TUESDAY BUT THE PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME IS
LOW.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUES TODAY FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THIS IS DUE TO AN ONSHORE
FLOW WHICH IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE HOWEVER IT SHOULD BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY, ESPECIALLY DURING THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME ENHANCED RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE ANGLE OF
INCIDENCE ALONG THE NJ COAST. OTHERWISE, A LOW RISK IS MAINTAINED
FOR THE DELAWARE BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 4A
NEAR TERM...AMC 4A
SHORT TERM...AMC 4A
LONG TERM...DRAG 4A
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG 4A
MARINE...AMC/DRAG 4A
RIP CURRENTS...4A




000
FXUS61 KPHI 050119
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
919 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT,
THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR
OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC.
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. AS THIS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST SOME, THE FEW
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END
BY MIDNIGHT. A STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORT WAVE IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY IS HELPING TO TOSS SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA,
WHICH LINKS UP TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL SEND
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS OUR AREA FOR AWHILE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA
AND OUT TO SEA WITH LIGHT WINDS IN ITS WAKE. A WEALTH OF CLOUDS ARE
MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY, HOWEVER DRYING ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO WORK IN DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS
ERODING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME FOG LATE, ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE STEADIER RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY FROM EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THIS WILL DEPEND THOUGH ON HOW MUCH HIGH
CLOUDINESS IS AROUND AS WELL, THEREFORE WE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR NOW.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SUN AND OTHER THAN SOME EARLY
MORNING FOG, EXPECT A VERY NICE DAY. DRY WX, PLEASANT TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A GREAT WAY TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL GENLY BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO OHIO ON
MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AND GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE
MAIN MID LEVEL FLOW. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL
RIDGING MAY TAKE PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ANTICIPATED TO MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE EXCEPTION. THERE MAY BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR DELMARVA COUNTIES UP
INTO CHESTER COUNTY AND BERKS COUNTY ON MONDAY AS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND A MID LEVEL
CAP IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND
PATCHY FOG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PASSING OVERHEAD
COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVELING
IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW
IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THE SURFACE LOW AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEY SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE A
DECREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS
THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL END BY MIDNIGHT. SOME LOCAL FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 3-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SUNDAY...SOME LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. VARIABLE WINDS AROUND
5 KNOTS, BECOMING LOCALLY SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
IT APPEARS ANY CHANCE OF SCA CONDS TONIGHT WILL NOT MATERIALIZE
AND NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THIS IS DUE TO AN
ONSHORE FLOW WHICH IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE HOWEVER IT SHOULD BECOME
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ESPECIALLY DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME ENHANCED RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE ANGLE
OF THE COAST. OTHERWISE, A LOW RISK IS MAINTAINED FOR THE DELAWARE
BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 050119
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
919 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT,
THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR
OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC.
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET IS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. AS THIS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST SOME, THE FEW
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END
BY MIDNIGHT. A STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORT WAVE IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY IS HELPING TO TOSS SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA,
WHICH LINKS UP TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL SEND
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS OUR AREA FOR AWHILE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM OUR AREA
AND OUT TO SEA WITH LIGHT WINDS IN ITS WAKE. A WEALTH OF CLOUDS ARE
MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY, HOWEVER DRYING ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO WORK IN DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS
ERODING AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN SOME FOG LATE, ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE STEADIER RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY FROM EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THIS WILL DEPEND THOUGH ON HOW MUCH HIGH
CLOUDINESS IS AROUND AS WELL, THEREFORE WE ADDED PATCHY FOG FOR NOW.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SUN AND OTHER THAN SOME EARLY
MORNING FOG, EXPECT A VERY NICE DAY. DRY WX, PLEASANT TEMPS AND DEW
POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A GREAT WAY TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS
WILL GENLY BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO OHIO ON
MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AND GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE
MAIN MID LEVEL FLOW. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL
RIDGING MAY TAKE PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ANTICIPATED TO MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE EXCEPTION. THERE MAY BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR DELMARVA COUNTIES UP
INTO CHESTER COUNTY AND BERKS COUNTY ON MONDAY AS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND A MID LEVEL
CAP IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND
PATCHY FOG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PASSING OVERHEAD
COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVELING
IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW
IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THE SURFACE LOW AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEY SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE A
DECREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS
THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL END BY MIDNIGHT. SOME LOCAL FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO
MVFR/IFR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 3-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SUNDAY...SOME LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. VARIABLE WINDS AROUND
5 KNOTS, BECOMING LOCALLY SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO A SEA/BAY BREEZE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
IT APPEARS ANY CHANCE OF SCA CONDS TONIGHT WILL NOT MATERIALIZE
AND NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR AND SHORT
TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THIS IS DUE TO AN
ONSHORE FLOW WHICH IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE HOWEVER IT SHOULD BECOME
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ESPECIALLY DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME ENHANCED RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT DUE TO THE ANGLE
OF THE COAST. OTHERWISE, A LOW RISK IS MAINTAINED FOR THE DELAWARE
BEACHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...GORSE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 042242
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
642 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT,
THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR
OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC.
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET IS ACROSS THE COASTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC AND OUR AREA IS CLOSE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION THIS
EVENING. THIS MAY HELP TO KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING FOR A TIME, WHICH
IS WHAT RADAR TRENDS ARE INDICATING. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
REMAINS IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE, WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. WE ADJUSTED
THE POPS A BIT AS A RESULT.

OTHERWISE, LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK OUT TO SEA THIS EVENING
WITH A FAIRLY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING. A WEALTH OF CLOUDS IS
MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY, HOWEVER DRYING ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO WORK IN DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS
ERODING. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY WHERE THE STEADIER
RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY FROM EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SUN AND EXPECT A VERY NICE
DAY. DRY WX, PLEASANT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A GREAT
WAY TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL GENLY BE IN THE MID
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO OHIO ON
MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AND GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE
MAIN MID LEVEL FLOW. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL
RIDGING MAY TAKE PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ANTICIPATED TO MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE EXCEPTION. THERE MAY BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR DELMARVA COUNTIES UP
INTO CHESTER COUNTY AND BERKS COUNTY ON MONDAY AS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND A MID LEVEL
CAP IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND
PATCHY FOG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PASSING OVERHEAD
COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVELING
IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW
IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THE SURFACE LOW AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEY SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE A
DECREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING AT TIMES. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME LOCAL FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP MAINLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
3-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SUNDAY...LOCAL FOG/STRATUS EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. VARIABLE WINDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS, BECOMING LOCALLY SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO A SEA BREEZE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
IT NOW APPEARS ANY CHANCE OF SCA CONDS TONIGHT WILL NOT
MATERIALIZE AND NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR
AND SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE MAY COME CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH TONIGHT`S TIDAL
CYCLE, BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR THE NEW JERSEY
COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 042242
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
642 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT,
THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OR NEAR
OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC.
AN UPPER-LEVEL JET IS ACROSS THE COASTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN
MID ATLANTIC AND OUR AREA IS CLOSE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION THIS
EVENING. THIS MAY HELP TO KEEP A FEW SHOWERS GOING FOR A TIME, WHICH
IS WHAT RADAR TRENDS ARE INDICATING. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
REMAINS IS ON THE LIGHT SIDE, WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION PASSING
JUST TO OUR SOUTH WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. WE ADJUSTED
THE POPS A BIT AS A RESULT.

OTHERWISE, LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRACK OUT TO SEA THIS EVENING
WITH A FAIRLY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW REMAINING. A WEALTH OF CLOUDS IS
MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY, HOWEVER DRYING ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO WORK IN DURING THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS
ERODING. THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY WHERE THE STEADIER
RAIN FELL EARLIER TODAY FROM EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SUN AND EXPECT A VERY NICE
DAY. DRY WX, PLEASANT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A GREAT
WAY TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL GENLY BE IN THE MID
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO OHIO ON
MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AND GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE
MAIN MID LEVEL FLOW. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL
RIDGING MAY TAKE PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ANTICIPATED TO MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE EXCEPTION. THERE MAY BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR DELMARVA COUNTIES UP
INTO CHESTER COUNTY AND BERKS COUNTY ON MONDAY AS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND A MID LEVEL
CAP IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND
PATCHY FOG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PASSING OVERHEAD
COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVELING
IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW
IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THE SURFACE LOW AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEY SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE A
DECREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR
THIS EVENING AT TIMES. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME LOCAL FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP MAINLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK WITH VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
3-8 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SUNDAY...LOCAL FOG/STRATUS EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. VARIABLE WINDS
AROUND 5 KNOTS, BECOMING LOCALLY SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO A SEA BREEZE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
IT NOW APPEARS ANY CHANCE OF SCA CONDS TONIGHT WILL NOT
MATERIALIZE AND NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR
AND SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE MAY COME CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH TONIGHT`S TIDAL
CYCLE, BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR THE NEW JERSEY
COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 041930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF DELAWARE AT MID
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO SETTLE OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR
REGION FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN OR NEAR OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT
THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE COAST THIS EVE AND
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W TONIGHT. LTST RADAR SHOWED
PRECIP COMING TO AN END ACRS THE REGION. THERE WERE SOME
ADDITIONAL SHWRS BACK OVER VA AND THE HRRR INDICATES SOME OF THESE
CUD AFFECT MAINLY SRN AREAS THRU LATE AFTN, BUT ALL PRECIP SHUD
END BY SUNSET. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT THESE SHWRS WILL EVEN
IMPACT THE AREA.

THEN FOR TONIGHT, DRY WX WITH LIGHT WIND IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SUN AND EXPECT A VERY NICE
DAY. DRY WX, PLEASANT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A GREAT
WAY TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL GENLY BE IN THE MID
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO OHIO ON
MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AND GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE
MAIN MID LEVEL FLOW. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL
RIDGING MAY TAKE PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ANTICIPATED TO MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE EXCEPTION. THERE MAY BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR DELMARVA COUNTIES UP
INTO CHESTER COUNTY AND BERKS COUNTY ON MONDAY AS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND A MID LEVEL
CAP IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND
PATCHY FOG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PASSING OVERHEAD
COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVELING
IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW
IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THE SURFACE LOW AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEY SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE A
DECREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD. PRECIP IS COMING TO AN
END ACRS THE REGION. EVEN IN THOSE AREAS TO THE N AND W WHERE IT
WAS STEADIER EARLIER CONDS REMAINED VFR FOR THE MOST PART. THERE
CUD STILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHWRS THRU LATE AFTN, MAINLY S AND W,
BUT WILL STILL GO WITH VFR CONDS. AFTER 00Z, ANY AND ALL PRECIP
CHCS WILL HAVE ENDED. THEN EXPECT A GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY. FEW IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS ON SUN, WITH THE MOST CLOUDINESS TO THE S.

THE NE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, MORE NLY
EARLY ION SUN BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE S OR SW LATER ON SUN. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT THRU THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
IT NOW APPEARS ANY CHANCE OF SCA CONDS TONIGHT WILL NOT
MATERIALIZE AND NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR
AND SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE MAY COME CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH TONIGHT`S TIDAL
CYCLE, BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR THE NEW JERSEY
COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 041930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF DELAWARE AT MID
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO SETTLE OVERHEAD FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH OUR
REGION FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN OR NEAR OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AT
THAT TIME. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE COAST THIS EVE AND
HIGH PRES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE W TONIGHT. LTST RADAR SHOWED
PRECIP COMING TO AN END ACRS THE REGION. THERE WERE SOME
ADDITIONAL SHWRS BACK OVER VA AND THE HRRR INDICATES SOME OF THESE
CUD AFFECT MAINLY SRN AREAS THRU LATE AFTN, BUT ALL PRECIP SHUD
END BY SUNSET. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT THESE SHWRS WILL EVEN
IMPACT THE AREA.

THEN FOR TONIGHT, DRY WX WITH LIGHT WIND IS EXPECTED. TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON SUN AND EXPECT A VERY NICE
DAY. DRY WX, PLEASANT TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A GREAT
WAY TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL GENLY BE IN THE MID
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO OHIO ON
MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AND GETTING ABSORBED INTO THE
MAIN MID LEVEL FLOW. THE FEATURE IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVER OUR
REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL
RIDGING MAY TAKE PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ANTICIPATED TO MOVE TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST DURING NEXT WEEKEND.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH ONE EXCEPTION. THERE MAY BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM OUR DELMARVA COUNTIES UP
INTO CHESTER COUNTY AND BERKS COUNTY ON MONDAY AS SOME MARGINAL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND A MID LEVEL
CAP IS EXPECTED TO EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND
PATCHY FOG FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PASSING OVERHEAD
COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A CONTINUING CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVELING
IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW
IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
THURSDAY EVENING. WE WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE 2
INCHES DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. ANY THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY COULD BRING HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.

THE SURFACE LOW AND THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THEY SHOULD PUSH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE A
DECREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD. PRECIP IS COMING TO AN
END ACRS THE REGION. EVEN IN THOSE AREAS TO THE N AND W WHERE IT
WAS STEADIER EARLIER CONDS REMAINED VFR FOR THE MOST PART. THERE
CUD STILL BE SOME ADDITIONAL SHWRS THRU LATE AFTN, MAINLY S AND W,
BUT WILL STILL GO WITH VFR CONDS. AFTER 00Z, ANY AND ALL PRECIP
CHCS WILL HAVE ENDED. THEN EXPECT A GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY. FEW IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS ON SUN, WITH THE MOST CLOUDINESS TO THE S.

THE NE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, MORE NLY
EARLY ION SUN BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE S OR SW LATER ON SUN. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT THRU THE TAF PD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG AND HAZE ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY
LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG ESPECIALLY
DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY CAUSING CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR
AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
IT NOW APPEARS ANY CHANCE OF SCA CONDS TONIGHT WILL NOT
MATERIALIZE AND NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE NEAR
AND SHORT TERM PDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE MAY COME CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH TONIGHT`S TIDAL
CYCLE, BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR THE NEW JERSEY
COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
MARINE...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...NIERENBERG





000
FXUS61 KPHI 041327
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF
CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GRTLKS AND OH VLY. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AND NORTH OF THE
QUASI- STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W TO E ACROSS VA.

BASED ON THE LTST RADAR, HAVE INCREASED POPS N AND W IN THE NEAR
TERM AND DECREASED S AND E. THE MOST CURRENT HRRR INDICATES PRECIP
MAY DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY AS IT MOVES SEWD AND IF
THAT IS THE CASE, THEN POPS WILL BE OVERDONE. WE`LL REASSESS FOR
THE NEXT UPDATE. OTHERWISE, MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS (UPWARD)
TO TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S
N/W AND MID 70S S/E. CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE FROM W TO E
FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORCING FOR UVV MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. HWVR CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AS DRIER AIR WILL BE SMWHT SLOW
TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
NEAR THE COAST SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS
TO PROCEED. EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT
WITH THE DRIER AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING
FOR MIN TEMPS GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL
WEAKEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A
WEAK WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 GFS MEX BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M
TEMPS PREVAILED.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75
TO TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT INDEX
ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKY COVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN SOMEWHAT AS AREAS OF SHOWERS
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF A SHRTWV
TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VLY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE
FROM MID/LATE AFTN ON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT LIGHT SE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SOME AND BACK TO THE NE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS LATER
THIS MORNING S OF DELMARVA AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY WIND
MAX GUST 15 KT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE E AND NE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF DELMARVA. WIND SPEED
AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME NLY TONIGHT AS
THE LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
OF THIS WRITING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT (THIS EVENING). WHILE SOME TIDAL LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 041327
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF
CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GRTLKS AND OH VLY. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AND NORTH OF THE
QUASI- STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W TO E ACROSS VA.

BASED ON THE LTST RADAR, HAVE INCREASED POPS N AND W IN THE NEAR
TERM AND DECREASED S AND E. THE MOST CURRENT HRRR INDICATES PRECIP
MAY DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER IN THE DAY AS IT MOVES SEWD AND IF
THAT IS THE CASE, THEN POPS WILL BE OVERDONE. WE`LL REASSESS FOR
THE NEXT UPDATE. OTHERWISE, MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS (UPWARD)
TO TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT OBS.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S
N/W AND MID 70S S/E. CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE FROM W TO E
FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORCING FOR UVV MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. HWVR CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AS DRIER AIR WILL BE SMWHT SLOW
TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
NEAR THE COAST SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS
TO PROCEED. EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT
WITH THE DRIER AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING
FOR MIN TEMPS GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL
WEAKEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A
WEAK WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 GFS MEX BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M
TEMPS PREVAILED.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75
TO TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT INDEX
ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKY COVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN SOMEWHAT AS AREAS OF SHOWERS
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF A SHRTWV
TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VLY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE
FROM MID/LATE AFTN ON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT LIGHT SE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SOME AND BACK TO THE NE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS LATER
THIS MORNING S OF DELMARVA AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY WIND
MAX GUST 15 KT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE E AND NE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF DELMARVA. WIND SPEED
AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME NLY TONIGHT AS
THE LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
OF THIS WRITING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT (THIS EVENING). WHILE SOME TIDAL LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 041225
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
825 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF
CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GRTLKS AND OH VLY. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AND NORTH OF THE
QUASI- STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W TO E ACROSS VA. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...HWVR THE BEST CHC FOR THE MORN HOURS LOOKS TO BE N/W OF
PHL BASED ON THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRES
MOVES EAST OF DELMARVA...POPS MAY BE MORE LIKELY S/E BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. CLOUD AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL
LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S N/W AND MID 70S S/E. CHANCE FOR
PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE FROM W TO E FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AS
FORCING FOR UVV MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. HWVR CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER AS DRIER AIR WILL BE SMWHT SLOW TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
NEAR THE COAST SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS
TO PROCEED. EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT
WITH THE DRIER AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING
FOR MIN TEMPS GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL
WEAKEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A
WEAK WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 GFS MEX BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M
TEMPS PREVAILED.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75
TO TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT INDEX
ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKY COVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN SOMEWHAT AS AREAS OF SHOWERS
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF A SHRTWV
TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VLY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE
FROM MID/LATE AFTN ON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT LIGHT SE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SOME AND BACK TO THE NE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS LATER
THIS MORNING S OF DELMARVA AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY WIND
MAX GUST 15 KT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE E AND NE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF DELMARVA. WIND SPEED
AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME NLY TONIGHT AS
THE LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
OF THIS WRITING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT (THIS EVENING). WHILE SOME TIDAL LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
RIP CURRENTS...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KPHI 041225
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
825 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF
CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GRTLKS AND OH VLY. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AND NORTH OF THE
QUASI- STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W TO E ACROSS VA. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...HWVR THE BEST CHC FOR THE MORN HOURS LOOKS TO BE N/W OF
PHL BASED ON THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRES
MOVES EAST OF DELMARVA...POPS MAY BE MORE LIKELY S/E BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. CLOUD AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL
LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S N/W AND MID 70S S/E. CHANCE FOR
PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE FROM W TO E FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AS
FORCING FOR UVV MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. HWVR CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER AS DRIER AIR WILL BE SMWHT SLOW TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
NEAR THE COAST SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS
TO PROCEED. EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT
WITH THE DRIER AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING
FOR MIN TEMPS GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL
WEAKEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A
WEAK WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 GFS MEX BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M
TEMPS PREVAILED.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75
TO TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT INDEX
ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKY COVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN SOMEWHAT AS AREAS OF SHOWERS
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF A SHRTWV
TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VLY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE
FROM MID/LATE AFTN ON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT LIGHT SE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SOME AND BACK TO THE NE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS LATER
THIS MORNING S OF DELMARVA AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY WIND
MAX GUST 15 KT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE E AND NE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF DELMARVA. WIND SPEED
AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME NLY TONIGHT AS
THE LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
OF THIS WRITING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT (THIS EVENING). WHILE SOME TIDAL LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
RIP CURRENTS...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KPHI 041225
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
825 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF
CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GRTLKS AND OH VLY. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AND NORTH OF THE
QUASI- STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W TO E ACROSS VA. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...HWVR THE BEST CHC FOR THE MORN HOURS LOOKS TO BE N/W OF
PHL BASED ON THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRES
MOVES EAST OF DELMARVA...POPS MAY BE MORE LIKELY S/E BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. CLOUD AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL
LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S N/W AND MID 70S S/E. CHANCE FOR
PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE FROM W TO E FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AS
FORCING FOR UVV MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. HWVR CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER AS DRIER AIR WILL BE SMWHT SLOW TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
NEAR THE COAST SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS
TO PROCEED. EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT
WITH THE DRIER AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING
FOR MIN TEMPS GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL
WEAKEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A
WEAK WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 GFS MEX BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M
TEMPS PREVAILED.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75
TO TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT INDEX
ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKY COVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN SOMEWHAT AS AREAS OF SHOWERS
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF A SHRTWV
TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VLY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE
FROM MID/LATE AFTN ON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT LIGHT SE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SOME AND BACK TO THE NE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS LATER
THIS MORNING S OF DELMARVA AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY WIND
MAX GUST 15 KT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE E AND NE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF DELMARVA. WIND SPEED
AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME NLY TONIGHT AS
THE LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
OF THIS WRITING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT (THIS EVENING). WHILE SOME TIDAL LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
RIP CURRENTS...STAFF





000
FXUS61 KPHI 041225
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
825 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF
CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GRTLKS AND OH VLY. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AND NORTH OF THE
QUASI- STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W TO E ACROSS VA. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...HWVR THE BEST CHC FOR THE MORN HOURS LOOKS TO BE N/W OF
PHL BASED ON THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRES
MOVES EAST OF DELMARVA...POPS MAY BE MORE LIKELY S/E BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME. CLOUD AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL
LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE UPPER 60S N/W AND MID 70S S/E. CHANCE FOR
PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE FROM W TO E FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AS
FORCING FOR UVV MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. HWVR CLOUDINESS WILL
LINGER AS DRIER AIR WILL BE SMWHT SLOW TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE
LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
NEAR THE COAST SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS
TO PROCEED. EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT
WITH THE DRIER AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING
FOR MIN TEMPS GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL
WEAKEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A
WEAK WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEW POINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 GFS MEX BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M
TEMPS PREVAILED.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75
TO TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT INDEX
ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKY COVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAY`S ANTICIPATED SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN SOMEWHAT AS AREAS OF SHOWERS
DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF A SHRTWV
TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VLY. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE
FROM MID/LATE AFTN ON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT LIGHT SE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SOME AND BACK TO THE NE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS LATER
THIS MORNING S OF DELMARVA AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND AGAIN
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY WIND
MAX GUST 15 KT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE E AND NE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF DELMARVA. WIND SPEED
AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME NLY TONIGHT AS
THE LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
OF THIS WRITING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT (THIS EVENING). WHILE SOME TIDAL LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
RIP CURRENTS...STAFF




000
FXUS61 KPHI 041005
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
605 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF
CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GRTLKS AND OH VLY. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AND NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W TO E ACROSS VA. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...HWVR THE
BEST CHC FOR THE EARLY MORN HOURS LOOKS TO BE N/W OF PHL BASED ON
THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRES MOVES EAST OF
DELMARVA...POPS MAY BE MORE LIKELY S/E BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
AT THIS TIME. CLOUD AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE
UPPER 60S N/W AND MID 70S S/E. CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE
FROM W TO E FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORCING FOR UVV MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. HWVR CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AS DRIER AIR WILL
BE SMWHT SLOW TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW. &&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND OFFSHORE
BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS TO PROCEED.
EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT WITH THE DRIER
AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING FOR MIN TEMPS
GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND OFFSHORE
BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS TO PROCEED.
EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT WITH THE DRIER
AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING FOR MIN TEMPS
GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A WEAK WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 GFS MEX BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M
TEMPS PREVAILED.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75 TO
TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT
INDEX ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKYCOVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAYS ANTICIPATED SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN SOMEWHAT AFTER DAYBREAK AS
AREAS OF SHOWERS DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE AHEAD
OF A SHRTWV TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VLY. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MID/LATE AFTN ON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT LIGHT
SE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME AND BACK TO THE NE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
LATER THIS MORNING S OF DELMARVA AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY
WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE E AND NE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF DELMARVA. WIND
SPEED AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME NLY
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
OF THIS WRITING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT (SATURDAY EVENING). WHILE SOME TIDAL LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG 604A
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 041005
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
605 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF
CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GRTLKS AND OH VLY. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AND NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W TO E ACROSS VA. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...HWVR THE
BEST CHC FOR THE EARLY MORN HOURS LOOKS TO BE N/W OF PHL BASED ON
THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRES MOVES EAST OF
DELMARVA...POPS MAY BE MORE LIKELY S/E BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
AT THIS TIME. CLOUD AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE
UPPER 60S N/W AND MID 70S S/E. CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE
FROM W TO E FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORCING FOR UVV MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. HWVR CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AS DRIER AIR WILL
BE SMWHT SLOW TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW. &&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND OFFSHORE
BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS TO PROCEED.
EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT WITH THE DRIER
AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING FOR MIN TEMPS
GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND OFFSHORE
BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS TO PROCEED.
EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT WITH THE DRIER
AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING FOR MIN TEMPS
GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A WEAK WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 GFS MEX BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M
TEMPS PREVAILED.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75 TO
TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT
INDEX ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKYCOVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAYS ANTICIPATED SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN SOMEWHAT AFTER DAYBREAK AS
AREAS OF SHOWERS DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE AHEAD
OF A SHRTWV TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VLY. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MID/LATE AFTN ON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT LIGHT
SE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME AND BACK TO THE NE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
LATER THIS MORNING S OF DELMARVA AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY
WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE E AND NE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF DELMARVA. WIND
SPEED AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME NLY
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
OF THIS WRITING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT (SATURDAY EVENING). WHILE SOME TIDAL LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG 604A
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 041005
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
605 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF
CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GRTLKS AND OH VLY. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AND NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W TO E ACROSS VA. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...HWVR THE
BEST CHC FOR THE EARLY MORN HOURS LOOKS TO BE N/W OF PHL BASED ON
THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRES MOVES EAST OF
DELMARVA...POPS MAY BE MORE LIKELY S/E BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
AT THIS TIME. CLOUD AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE
UPPER 60S N/W AND MID 70S S/E. CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE
FROM W TO E FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORCING FOR UVV MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. HWVR CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AS DRIER AIR WILL
BE SMWHT SLOW TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW. &&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND OFFSHORE
BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS TO PROCEED.
EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT WITH THE DRIER
AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING FOR MIN TEMPS
GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND OFFSHORE
BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS TO PROCEED.
EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT WITH THE DRIER
AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING FOR MIN TEMPS
GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A WEAK WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 GFS MEX BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M
TEMPS PREVAILED.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75 TO
TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT
INDEX ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKYCOVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAYS ANTICIPATED SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN SOMEWHAT AFTER DAYBREAK AS
AREAS OF SHOWERS DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE AHEAD
OF A SHRTWV TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VLY. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MID/LATE AFTN ON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT LIGHT
SE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME AND BACK TO THE NE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
LATER THIS MORNING S OF DELMARVA AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY
WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE E AND NE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF DELMARVA. WIND
SPEED AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME NLY
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
OF THIS WRITING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT (SATURDAY EVENING). WHILE SOME TIDAL LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG 604A
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 041005
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
605 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA SOUTH OF
CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS LATE TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GRTLKS AND OH VLY. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AND NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W TO E ACROSS VA. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...HWVR THE
BEST CHC FOR THE EARLY MORN HOURS LOOKS TO BE N/W OF PHL BASED ON
THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRES MOVES EAST OF
DELMARVA...POPS MAY BE MORE LIKELY S/E BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
AT THIS TIME. CLOUD AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE
UPPER 60S N/W AND MID 70S S/E. CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE
FROM W TO E FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORCING FOR UVV MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. HWVR CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AS DRIER AIR WILL
BE SMWHT SLOW TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW. &&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND OFFSHORE
BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS TO PROCEED.
EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT WITH THE DRIER
AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING FOR MIN TEMPS
GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND OFFSHORE
BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS TO PROCEED.
EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT WITH THE DRIER
AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING FOR MIN TEMPS
GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A WEAK WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 GFS MEX BLENDED WITH THE EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M
TEMPS PREVAILED.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75 TO
TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT
INDEX ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKYCOVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAYS ANTICIPATED SHORT
WAVE PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN SOMEWHAT AFTER DAYBREAK AS
AREAS OF SHOWERS DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE AHEAD
OF A SHRTWV TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VLY. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MID/LATE AFTN ON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT LIGHT
SE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME AND BACK TO THE NE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
LATER THIS MORNING S OF DELMARVA AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY
WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE E AND NE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF DELMARVA. WIND
SPEED AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME NLY
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
OF THIS WRITING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT (SATURDAY EVENING). WHILE SOME TIDAL LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...DRAG 604A
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040812
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
412 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GRTLKS AND OH VLY. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AND NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W TO E ACROSS VA. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...HWVR THE
BEST CHC FOR THE EARLY MORN HOURS LOOKS TO BE N/W OF PHL BASED ON
THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRES MOVES EAST OF
DELMARVA...POPS MAY BE MORE LIKELY S/E BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
AT THIS TIME. CLOUD AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE
UPPER 60S N/W AND MID 70S S/E. CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE
FROM W TO E FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORCING FOR UVV MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. HWVR CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AS DRIER AIR WILL
BE SMWHT SLOW TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW. &&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND OFFSHORE
BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS TO PROCEED.
EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT WITH THE DRIER
AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING FOR MIN TEMPS
GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A WEAK WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 MEX BLENDED WITH EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M TEMPS
PREVAILED.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75 TO
TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT
INDEX ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKYCOVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAYS PROBABLE SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN SOMEWHAT AFTER DAYBREAK AS
AREAS OF SHOWERS DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE AHEAD
OF A SHRTWV TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VLY. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MID/LATE AFTN ON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT LIGHT
SE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME AND BACK TO THE NE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
LATER THIS MORNING S OF DELMARVA AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY
WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE E AND NE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF DELMARVA. WIND
SPEED AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME NLY
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
OF THIS WRITING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT (SATURDAY EVENING). WHILE SOME TIDAL LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC 412
SHORT TERM...AMC 412
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...412
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 040812
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
412 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GRTLKS AND OH VLY. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AND NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W TO E ACROSS VA. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...HWVR THE
BEST CHC FOR THE EARLY MORN HOURS LOOKS TO BE N/W OF PHL BASED ON
THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRES MOVES EAST OF
DELMARVA...POPS MAY BE MORE LIKELY S/E BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
AT THIS TIME. CLOUD AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE
UPPER 60S N/W AND MID 70S S/E. CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE
FROM W TO E FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORCING FOR UVV MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. HWVR CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AS DRIER AIR WILL
BE SMWHT SLOW TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW. &&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND OFFSHORE
BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS TO PROCEED.
EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT WITH THE DRIER
AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING FOR MIN TEMPS
GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A WEAK WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 MEX BLENDED WITH EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M TEMPS
PREVAILED.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75 TO
TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT
INDEX ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKYCOVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAYS PROBABLE SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN SOMEWHAT AFTER DAYBREAK AS
AREAS OF SHOWERS DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE AHEAD
OF A SHRTWV TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VLY. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MID/LATE AFTN ON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT LIGHT
SE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME AND BACK TO THE NE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
LATER THIS MORNING S OF DELMARVA AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY
WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE E AND NE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF DELMARVA. WIND
SPEED AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME NLY
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
OF THIS WRITING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT (SATURDAY EVENING). WHILE SOME TIDAL LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC 412
SHORT TERM...AMC 412
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...412
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040805
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY-
TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. MOISTURE IS STREAMING AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE
VA-NC BORDER.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS EVENING SHOWED A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVER WESTERN PA/VA/CENTRAL MD THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA FROM A LEADING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS THRU TONIGHT CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST
HRRR, RAP AND NCEP WRF-NMM, WHICH SEEM TO HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS THUS FAR. PRECIP IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN SHORE OF MD
THIS EVE, DELAWARE CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT AND EASTERN PA/NJ LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

THE BEST LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED ON THE
COOL/STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN
THE MID AND LOW-LEVELS. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE
STEADY OR HEAVY TONIGHT IN THIS SETUP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z/18Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL
COME BEFORE 21Z. THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN
A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE
FAVORED LIGHTER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE
ADVECTION WE WILL HAVE. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING LOOKS TO BE DWINDLING GIVEN THESE RECENT
TRENDS.

MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OUTDOOR 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES TO TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE
DAY. THE GROUND MAY BE DAMP THOUGH IN PARTS OF THE AREA THAT
RECEIVE THE STEADIER/HEAVIER RAINFALL (MOST LIKELY DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ).

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A WEAK WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 MEX BLENDED WITH EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M TEMPS
PREVAILED.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75 TO
TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT
INDEX ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKYCOVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAYS PROBABLE SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY
WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD TO NEAR
25 KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER,
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND HAVE CAPPED WINDS/SEAS JUST
BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS OF THIS
WRITING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME TIDAL SITES MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL
REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 404
NEAR TERM...AMC WILL UPDATE 412
SHORT TERM...AMC WILL UPDATE 412
LONG TERM...DRAG 404
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG 404
MARINE...AMC/DRAG 404
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...404
RIP CURRENTS...404





000
FXUS61 KPHI 040805
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY-
TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. MOISTURE IS STREAMING AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE
VA-NC BORDER.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS EVENING SHOWED A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVER WESTERN PA/VA/CENTRAL MD THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA FROM A LEADING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS THRU TONIGHT CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST
HRRR, RAP AND NCEP WRF-NMM, WHICH SEEM TO HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS THUS FAR. PRECIP IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN SHORE OF MD
THIS EVE, DELAWARE CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT AND EASTERN PA/NJ LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

THE BEST LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED ON THE
COOL/STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN
THE MID AND LOW-LEVELS. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE
STEADY OR HEAVY TONIGHT IN THIS SETUP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z/18Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL
COME BEFORE 21Z. THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN
A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE
FAVORED LIGHTER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE
ADVECTION WE WILL HAVE. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING LOOKS TO BE DWINDLING GIVEN THESE RECENT
TRENDS.

MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OUTDOOR 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES TO TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE
DAY. THE GROUND MAY BE DAMP THOUGH IN PARTS OF THE AREA THAT
RECEIVE THE STEADIER/HEAVIER RAINFALL (MOST LIKELY DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ).

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A WEAK WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 MEX BLENDED WITH EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M TEMPS
PREVAILED.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75 TO
TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT
INDEX ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKYCOVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAYS PROBABLE SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY
WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD TO NEAR
25 KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER,
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND HAVE CAPPED WINDS/SEAS JUST
BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS OF THIS
WRITING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME TIDAL SITES MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL
REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 404
NEAR TERM...AMC WILL UPDATE 412
SHORT TERM...AMC WILL UPDATE 412
LONG TERM...DRAG 404
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG 404
MARINE...AMC/DRAG 404
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...404
RIP CURRENTS...404




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040130
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY-
TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. MOISTURE IS STREAMING AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE
VA-NC BORDER.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS EVENING SHOWED A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVER WESTERN PA/VA/CENTRAL MD THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA FROM A LEADING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS THRU TONIGHT CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST
HRRR, RAP AND NCEP WRF-NMM, WHICH SEEM TO HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS THUS FAR. PRECIP IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN SHORE OF MD
THIS EVE, DELAWARE CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT AND EASTERN PA/NJ LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

THE BEST LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED ON THE
COOL/STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN
THE MID AND LOW-LEVELS. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE
STEADY OR HEAVY TONIGHT IN THIS SETUP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z/18Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL
COME BEFORE 21Z. THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN
A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE
FAVORED LIGHTER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE
ADVECTION WE WILL HAVE. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING LOOKS TO BE DWINDLING GIVEN THESE RECENT
TRENDS.

MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OUTDOOR 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES TO TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE
DAY. THE GROUND MAY BE DAMP THOUGH IN PARTS OF THE AREA THAT
RECEIVE THE STEADIER/HEAVIER RAINFALL (MOST LIKELY DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ).

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD TO NEAR
25 KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER,
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND HAVE CAPPED WINDS/SEAS JUST
BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN





000
FXUS61 KPHI 040130
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY-
TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. MOISTURE IS STREAMING AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE
VA-NC BORDER.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS EVENING SHOWED A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVER WESTERN PA/VA/CENTRAL MD THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA FROM A LEADING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS THRU TONIGHT CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST
HRRR, RAP AND NCEP WRF-NMM, WHICH SEEM TO HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS THUS FAR. PRECIP IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN SHORE OF MD
THIS EVE, DELAWARE CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT AND EASTERN PA/NJ LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

THE BEST LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED ON THE
COOL/STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN
THE MID AND LOW-LEVELS. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE
STEADY OR HEAVY TONIGHT IN THIS SETUP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z/18Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL
COME BEFORE 21Z. THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN
A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE
FAVORED LIGHTER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE
ADVECTION WE WILL HAVE. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING LOOKS TO BE DWINDLING GIVEN THESE RECENT
TRENDS.

MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OUTDOOR 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES TO TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE
DAY. THE GROUND MAY BE DAMP THOUGH IN PARTS OF THE AREA THAT
RECEIVE THE STEADIER/HEAVIER RAINFALL (MOST LIKELY DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ).

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD TO NEAR
25 KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER,
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND HAVE CAPPED WINDS/SEAS JUST
BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN





000
FXUS61 KPHI 040130
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY-
TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. MOISTURE IS STREAMING AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE
VA-NC BORDER.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS EVENING SHOWED A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVER WESTERN PA/VA/CENTRAL MD THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA FROM A LEADING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS THRU TONIGHT CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST
HRRR, RAP AND NCEP WRF-NMM, WHICH SEEM TO HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS THUS FAR. PRECIP IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN SHORE OF MD
THIS EVE, DELAWARE CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT AND EASTERN PA/NJ LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

THE BEST LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED ON THE
COOL/STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN
THE MID AND LOW-LEVELS. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE
STEADY OR HEAVY TONIGHT IN THIS SETUP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z/18Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL
COME BEFORE 21Z. THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN
A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE
FAVORED LIGHTER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE
ADVECTION WE WILL HAVE. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING LOOKS TO BE DWINDLING GIVEN THESE RECENT
TRENDS.

MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OUTDOOR 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES TO TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE
DAY. THE GROUND MAY BE DAMP THOUGH IN PARTS OF THE AREA THAT
RECEIVE THE STEADIER/HEAVIER RAINFALL (MOST LIKELY DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ).

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD TO NEAR
25 KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER,
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND HAVE CAPPED WINDS/SEAS JUST
BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040058
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
858 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040058
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
858 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040058
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
858 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 040058
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
858 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 031942
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 KT) WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. RAIN MAY START MOVING INTO THE AREA
AS EARLY AS 03Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 09Z. ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS,
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR. FOR KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL, A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z.
IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES APPEARS UNLIKELY, BUT NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. WIND DIRECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT VARIABLE
INTO THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD SETTLE INTO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AROUND OR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 031942
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 KT) WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. RAIN MAY START MOVING INTO THE AREA
AS EARLY AS 03Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 09Z. ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS,
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR. FOR KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL, A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z.
IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES APPEARS UNLIKELY, BUT NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. WIND DIRECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT VARIABLE
INTO THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD SETTLE INTO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AROUND OR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 031942
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 KT) WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. RAIN MAY START MOVING INTO THE AREA
AS EARLY AS 03Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 09Z. ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS,
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR. FOR KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL, A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z.
IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES APPEARS UNLIKELY, BUT NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. WIND DIRECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT VARIABLE
INTO THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD SETTLE INTO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AROUND OR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 031323
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
923 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. A TRANSIENT SURFACE
HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A FAIRLY NICE DAY
FOR MOST AREAS. THERE ARE NO STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND THERE IS NOT ANY INSTABILITY
FORECAST AS A STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE. SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND DELMARVA WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK CHANNELIZED VORTICITY, WHICH
COULD CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING
ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND APPROACH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THERE IS NOT
MUCH, IF ANY INSTABILITY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT OUR FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. SO WE ONLY KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED MUCH BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB WITH
THE 500MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST AND ALSO BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB
AT 850MB. ONCE WE GET DOWN TO 925MB, THE WRF-NMMB LOOKS BETTER.
THE IMPLICATION OF THE 500MB DIFFERENCES (ESP IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST) IS THAT THE WRF-NMM HAS A SLIGHTLY MORE SHEARED WEAKER
SOLUTION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE LATEST GFS IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS TWO ECMWF RUNS AND NOW HAS THE HEAVIEST RAIN FLIPPED
TO THE OPPOSITE END OF OUR CWA FROM LAST NIGHT. A DP/DT VALID 18Z
SATURDAY SHOWS THIS TRANSITION WHICH STARTED WITH 06Z RUN LAST
NIGHT. WITH THE TROF DEEPER AND HANGING BACK, THE NEXT WAVE ON THE
FRONT BECOMES MUCH MORE MUTED AND THE LAST LOW ON THE WAVE TRAIN
BECOMES THE ALPHA LOW. AND THERE GOES INDEPENDENCE DAY.

LAST NIGHT IT APPEARED THE EURO WAS TOO SLOW WITH WAVE NUMBER TWO,
BUT IN REALITY AND UNFORTUNATELY ITS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE RIGHT
FOR THE WRONG REASON AS ITS WAVE NUMBER THREE THAT SHOULD MAKE IT
THREE CONSECUTIVE WET SATURDAYS IN A ROW. THE WAA INDUCED PHASE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE UNDERWAY OR ON THE VERGE OF GETTING
UNDERWAY IN THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS INDEPENDENCE DAY
STARTS. WE SEE DECENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE PLUS A WELL
POSITIONED 250MB ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET FOR THE COOL SECTOR
PCPN MAX. THE RAW QPF MAY BE OVERDONE THERE BECAUSE OF THE LACK
OF PREDICTED CONVECTION, THERE SHOULD BE A SECONDARY MAX IN THAT
PART OF THE CYCLONE.

WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN STEADIER, THERE ARE STILL SOME LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCES TO THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN OUR CWA. THE GFS IS ON
THE NORTHERN ENVELOPE. THE GEFS MEAN DOES A NORTH-SOUTH-NORTH
MEANDERING AROUND THE OP SFC LOW POSITION. WE SPREAD CONVECTIVE
CHANCES NORTHWARD AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES, BUT THE BEST CHANCE
REMAINS FROM THE MASON-DIXON AND ACY EXPRESSWAY LINE SOUTHWARD.
THIS SHOULD BE A SECONDARY 9AND POSSIBLY HIGHEST) PRECIP MAX. GFS
PCPN WATER VALUES EXCEED TWO INCHES YET AGAIN.

AS FAR AS SEVERE GOES, PREDICTED 500MB TEMPS ARE RATHER WARM, A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN 6/30. THUS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. DCAPE
IS NOT STRONG. WE WILL HAVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR, BUT MIXED
LAYER CAPES ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 1K JOULES EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY DELMARVA. SO IF THERE IS A WINDOW FOR STRONGER STORMS, ITS
FAR SOUTH AS OF NOW. THE EARLY START TO CLOUDS AND PCPN IS NOT GOING
TO HELP.

THE WAA PUSH GETS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO IF THERE IS A
SILVER LINING, THE CURRENT TIMING (PMDHMD SUGGESTS A NON-CMC BLEND)
WOULD END THE HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES TOWARD EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT
ABOUT MAX TEMPS AT BOTH ENDS OF OUR CWA: NORTHWEST CLOUDS/PCPN MAY
MAKE US TOO HIGH, SOUTHEAST, A WARM SECTOR SQUEEZE WE MAY BE TOO
LOW. FULL SUN SUPPORTIVE OF NEAR 90.

IF WE CAN BANK ON CURRENT TIMING, SHWRS AND TSTMS WOULD BE DONE BY
THE START OF ANY FIREWORK FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE
TIMING SLIPPAGE FROM LAST NIGHT, WE CARRIED A LOW CHANCE EARLY.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE BETTER WEEKEND DAY. A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CAPE, BUT HAVE THE CAP
HOLDING. ITS THE TYPE OF DAY IN WHICH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION
WOULD AFFECT LESS THAN 10% OF OUR CWA.

THE TRANSITION TO A WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEEK THEN STARTS ON
MONDAY. THIS MIGHT BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
YET ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON OUR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PREDICTED TO FORM AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH. POPS ARE GRADUALLY
INCREASED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

NO BIG CHANGES TO WED AND THU FORECASTS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR ENOUGH TO TRIGGER MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE USUAL MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE THERE WITH
THE GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. NORMALLY SLOWER IS BETTER IN SUMMER
(UNFORTUNATELY FOR SATURDAY), SO WE KEPT RELATIVELY HIGH POPS IN
FOR BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 KT)
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. RAIN MAY START MOVING INTO
THE AREA AS EARLY AS 03Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z. ONCE THE
RAIN BEGINS, CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR OR LOWER. WIND DIRECTION
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT VARIABLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, SHIFTING
FROM MOSTLY NORTHERLY DIRECTION NOW TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AROUND OR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR, WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG, ESPECIALLY
AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR
GOING FORWARD INTO TUESDAY AS MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BEGIN INCREASING AND GUSTING
AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE STALLED FRONT, A SCA MAY BE
NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT,
SEAS MIGHT STILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF ANY SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS...NO
SYNOPTIC SCALE INDUCED MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE RECENT FULL MOON AND A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, TIDES WILL CONTINUE RUNNING HIGH. THE HIGH TIDE LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE MINOR FLOOD
LEVEL, BUT RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. THE TWO SITES THAT MAY GET THE CLOSEST
WOULD BE REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. WE`LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THROUGH THE DAY TO SEE IF AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

THEN ON SATURDAY NIGHT, THE TIDAL CONCERN SWITCHES TO THE
OCEANSIDE AS A LINGERING NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BRING ACTUAL TIDES
CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS. THE HIGHEST CONCERN
IS ALONG THE NJ COAST TOWARD NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY, BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. LOCAL REGRESSION GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NJ AND DE BEACHES TO BE JUST BELOW
MODERATE FOR TODAY, WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR A MODERATE RISK
ON SATURDAY (WHICH MAY NOT BE A GREAT BEACH DAY BECAUSE OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS).

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 031323
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
923 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. A TRANSIENT SURFACE
HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A FAIRLY NICE DAY
FOR MOST AREAS. THERE ARE NO STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND THERE IS NOT ANY INSTABILITY
FORECAST AS A STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE. SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND DELMARVA WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK CHANNELIZED VORTICITY, WHICH
COULD CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING
ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND APPROACH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THERE IS NOT
MUCH, IF ANY INSTABILITY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT OUR FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. SO WE ONLY KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED MUCH BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB WITH
THE 500MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST AND ALSO BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB
AT 850MB. ONCE WE GET DOWN TO 925MB, THE WRF-NMMB LOOKS BETTER.
THE IMPLICATION OF THE 500MB DIFFERENCES (ESP IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST) IS THAT THE WRF-NMM HAS A SLIGHTLY MORE SHEARED WEAKER
SOLUTION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE LATEST GFS IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS TWO ECMWF RUNS AND NOW HAS THE HEAVIEST RAIN FLIPPED
TO THE OPPOSITE END OF OUR CWA FROM LAST NIGHT. A DP/DT VALID 18Z
SATURDAY SHOWS THIS TRANSITION WHICH STARTED WITH 06Z RUN LAST
NIGHT. WITH THE TROF DEEPER AND HANGING BACK, THE NEXT WAVE ON THE
FRONT BECOMES MUCH MORE MUTED AND THE LAST LOW ON THE WAVE TRAIN
BECOMES THE ALPHA LOW. AND THERE GOES INDEPENDENCE DAY.

LAST NIGHT IT APPEARED THE EURO WAS TOO SLOW WITH WAVE NUMBER TWO,
BUT IN REALITY AND UNFORTUNATELY ITS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE RIGHT
FOR THE WRONG REASON AS ITS WAVE NUMBER THREE THAT SHOULD MAKE IT
THREE CONSECUTIVE WET SATURDAYS IN A ROW. THE WAA INDUCED PHASE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE UNDERWAY OR ON THE VERGE OF GETTING
UNDERWAY IN THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS INDEPENDENCE DAY
STARTS. WE SEE DECENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE PLUS A WELL
POSITIONED 250MB ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET FOR THE COOL SECTOR
PCPN MAX. THE RAW QPF MAY BE OVERDONE THERE BECAUSE OF THE LACK
OF PREDICTED CONVECTION, THERE SHOULD BE A SECONDARY MAX IN THAT
PART OF THE CYCLONE.

WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN STEADIER, THERE ARE STILL SOME LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCES TO THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN OUR CWA. THE GFS IS ON
THE NORTHERN ENVELOPE. THE GEFS MEAN DOES A NORTH-SOUTH-NORTH
MEANDERING AROUND THE OP SFC LOW POSITION. WE SPREAD CONVECTIVE
CHANCES NORTHWARD AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES, BUT THE BEST CHANCE
REMAINS FROM THE MASON-DIXON AND ACY EXPRESSWAY LINE SOUTHWARD.
THIS SHOULD BE A SECONDARY 9AND POSSIBLY HIGHEST) PRECIP MAX. GFS
PCPN WATER VALUES EXCEED TWO INCHES YET AGAIN.

AS FAR AS SEVERE GOES, PREDICTED 500MB TEMPS ARE RATHER WARM, A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN 6/30. THUS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. DCAPE
IS NOT STRONG. WE WILL HAVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR, BUT MIXED
LAYER CAPES ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 1K JOULES EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY DELMARVA. SO IF THERE IS A WINDOW FOR STRONGER STORMS, ITS
FAR SOUTH AS OF NOW. THE EARLY START TO CLOUDS AND PCPN IS NOT GOING
TO HELP.

THE WAA PUSH GETS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO IF THERE IS A
SILVER LINING, THE CURRENT TIMING (PMDHMD SUGGESTS A NON-CMC BLEND)
WOULD END THE HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES TOWARD EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT
ABOUT MAX TEMPS AT BOTH ENDS OF OUR CWA: NORTHWEST CLOUDS/PCPN MAY
MAKE US TOO HIGH, SOUTHEAST, A WARM SECTOR SQUEEZE WE MAY BE TOO
LOW. FULL SUN SUPPORTIVE OF NEAR 90.

IF WE CAN BANK ON CURRENT TIMING, SHWRS AND TSTMS WOULD BE DONE BY
THE START OF ANY FIREWORK FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE
TIMING SLIPPAGE FROM LAST NIGHT, WE CARRIED A LOW CHANCE EARLY.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE BETTER WEEKEND DAY. A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CAPE, BUT HAVE THE CAP
HOLDING. ITS THE TYPE OF DAY IN WHICH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION
WOULD AFFECT LESS THAN 10% OF OUR CWA.

THE TRANSITION TO A WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEEK THEN STARTS ON
MONDAY. THIS MIGHT BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
YET ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON OUR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PREDICTED TO FORM AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH. POPS ARE GRADUALLY
INCREASED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

NO BIG CHANGES TO WED AND THU FORECASTS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR ENOUGH TO TRIGGER MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE USUAL MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE THERE WITH
THE GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. NORMALLY SLOWER IS BETTER IN SUMMER
(UNFORTUNATELY FOR SATURDAY), SO WE KEPT RELATIVELY HIGH POPS IN
FOR BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 KT)
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. RAIN MAY START MOVING INTO
THE AREA AS EARLY AS 03Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z. ONCE THE
RAIN BEGINS, CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR OR LOWER. WIND DIRECTION
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT VARIABLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, SHIFTING
FROM MOSTLY NORTHERLY DIRECTION NOW TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AROUND OR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR, WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG, ESPECIALLY
AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR
GOING FORWARD INTO TUESDAY AS MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BEGIN INCREASING AND GUSTING
AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE STALLED FRONT, A SCA MAY BE
NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT,
SEAS MIGHT STILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF ANY SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS...NO
SYNOPTIC SCALE INDUCED MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE RECENT FULL MOON AND A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, TIDES WILL CONTINUE RUNNING HIGH. THE HIGH TIDE LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE MINOR FLOOD
LEVEL, BUT RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. THE TWO SITES THAT MAY GET THE CLOSEST
WOULD BE REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. WE`LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THROUGH THE DAY TO SEE IF AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

THEN ON SATURDAY NIGHT, THE TIDAL CONCERN SWITCHES TO THE
OCEANSIDE AS A LINGERING NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BRING ACTUAL TIDES
CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS. THE HIGHEST CONCERN
IS ALONG THE NJ COAST TOWARD NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY, BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. LOCAL REGRESSION GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NJ AND DE BEACHES TO BE JUST BELOW
MODERATE FOR TODAY, WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR A MODERATE RISK
ON SATURDAY (WHICH MAY NOT BE A GREAT BEACH DAY BECAUSE OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS).

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 031323
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
923 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. A TRANSIENT SURFACE
HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A FAIRLY NICE DAY
FOR MOST AREAS. THERE ARE NO STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND THERE IS NOT ANY INSTABILITY
FORECAST AS A STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE. SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND DELMARVA WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK CHANNELIZED VORTICITY, WHICH
COULD CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING
ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND APPROACH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THERE IS NOT
MUCH, IF ANY INSTABILITY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT OUR FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. SO WE ONLY KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED MUCH BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB WITH
THE 500MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST AND ALSO BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB
AT 850MB. ONCE WE GET DOWN TO 925MB, THE WRF-NMMB LOOKS BETTER.
THE IMPLICATION OF THE 500MB DIFFERENCES (ESP IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST) IS THAT THE WRF-NMM HAS A SLIGHTLY MORE SHEARED WEAKER
SOLUTION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE LATEST GFS IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS TWO ECMWF RUNS AND NOW HAS THE HEAVIEST RAIN FLIPPED
TO THE OPPOSITE END OF OUR CWA FROM LAST NIGHT. A DP/DT VALID 18Z
SATURDAY SHOWS THIS TRANSITION WHICH STARTED WITH 06Z RUN LAST
NIGHT. WITH THE TROF DEEPER AND HANGING BACK, THE NEXT WAVE ON THE
FRONT BECOMES MUCH MORE MUTED AND THE LAST LOW ON THE WAVE TRAIN
BECOMES THE ALPHA LOW. AND THERE GOES INDEPENDENCE DAY.

LAST NIGHT IT APPEARED THE EURO WAS TOO SLOW WITH WAVE NUMBER TWO,
BUT IN REALITY AND UNFORTUNATELY ITS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE RIGHT
FOR THE WRONG REASON AS ITS WAVE NUMBER THREE THAT SHOULD MAKE IT
THREE CONSECUTIVE WET SATURDAYS IN A ROW. THE WAA INDUCED PHASE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE UNDERWAY OR ON THE VERGE OF GETTING
UNDERWAY IN THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS INDEPENDENCE DAY
STARTS. WE SEE DECENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE PLUS A WELL
POSITIONED 250MB ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET FOR THE COOL SECTOR
PCPN MAX. THE RAW QPF MAY BE OVERDONE THERE BECAUSE OF THE LACK
OF PREDICTED CONVECTION, THERE SHOULD BE A SECONDARY MAX IN THAT
PART OF THE CYCLONE.

WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN STEADIER, THERE ARE STILL SOME LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCES TO THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN OUR CWA. THE GFS IS ON
THE NORTHERN ENVELOPE. THE GEFS MEAN DOES A NORTH-SOUTH-NORTH
MEANDERING AROUND THE OP SFC LOW POSITION. WE SPREAD CONVECTIVE
CHANCES NORTHWARD AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES, BUT THE BEST CHANCE
REMAINS FROM THE MASON-DIXON AND ACY EXPRESSWAY LINE SOUTHWARD.
THIS SHOULD BE A SECONDARY 9AND POSSIBLY HIGHEST) PRECIP MAX. GFS
PCPN WATER VALUES EXCEED TWO INCHES YET AGAIN.

AS FAR AS SEVERE GOES, PREDICTED 500MB TEMPS ARE RATHER WARM, A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN 6/30. THUS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. DCAPE
IS NOT STRONG. WE WILL HAVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR, BUT MIXED
LAYER CAPES ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 1K JOULES EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY DELMARVA. SO IF THERE IS A WINDOW FOR STRONGER STORMS, ITS
FAR SOUTH AS OF NOW. THE EARLY START TO CLOUDS AND PCPN IS NOT GOING
TO HELP.

THE WAA PUSH GETS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO IF THERE IS A
SILVER LINING, THE CURRENT TIMING (PMDHMD SUGGESTS A NON-CMC BLEND)
WOULD END THE HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES TOWARD EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT
ABOUT MAX TEMPS AT BOTH ENDS OF OUR CWA: NORTHWEST CLOUDS/PCPN MAY
MAKE US TOO HIGH, SOUTHEAST, A WARM SECTOR SQUEEZE WE MAY BE TOO
LOW. FULL SUN SUPPORTIVE OF NEAR 90.

IF WE CAN BANK ON CURRENT TIMING, SHWRS AND TSTMS WOULD BE DONE BY
THE START OF ANY FIREWORK FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE
TIMING SLIPPAGE FROM LAST NIGHT, WE CARRIED A LOW CHANCE EARLY.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE BETTER WEEKEND DAY. A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CAPE, BUT HAVE THE CAP
HOLDING. ITS THE TYPE OF DAY IN WHICH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION
WOULD AFFECT LESS THAN 10% OF OUR CWA.

THE TRANSITION TO A WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEEK THEN STARTS ON
MONDAY. THIS MIGHT BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
YET ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON OUR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PREDICTED TO FORM AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH. POPS ARE GRADUALLY
INCREASED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

NO BIG CHANGES TO WED AND THU FORECASTS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR ENOUGH TO TRIGGER MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE USUAL MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE THERE WITH
THE GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. NORMALLY SLOWER IS BETTER IN SUMMER
(UNFORTUNATELY FOR SATURDAY), SO WE KEPT RELATIVELY HIGH POPS IN
FOR BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 KT)
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. RAIN MAY START MOVING INTO
THE AREA AS EARLY AS 03Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z. ONCE THE
RAIN BEGINS, CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR OR LOWER. WIND DIRECTION
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT VARIABLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, SHIFTING
FROM MOSTLY NORTHERLY DIRECTION NOW TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AROUND OR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR, WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG, ESPECIALLY
AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR
GOING FORWARD INTO TUESDAY AS MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BEGIN INCREASING AND GUSTING
AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE STALLED FRONT, A SCA MAY BE
NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT,
SEAS MIGHT STILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF ANY SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS...NO
SYNOPTIC SCALE INDUCED MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE RECENT FULL MOON AND A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, TIDES WILL CONTINUE RUNNING HIGH. THE HIGH TIDE LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE MINOR FLOOD
LEVEL, BUT RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. THE TWO SITES THAT MAY GET THE CLOSEST
WOULD BE REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. WE`LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THROUGH THE DAY TO SEE IF AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

THEN ON SATURDAY NIGHT, THE TIDAL CONCERN SWITCHES TO THE
OCEANSIDE AS A LINGERING NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BRING ACTUAL TIDES
CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS. THE HIGHEST CONCERN
IS ALONG THE NJ COAST TOWARD NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY, BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. LOCAL REGRESSION GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NJ AND DE BEACHES TO BE JUST BELOW
MODERATE FOR TODAY, WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR A MODERATE RISK
ON SATURDAY (WHICH MAY NOT BE A GREAT BEACH DAY BECAUSE OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS).

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 030802
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS, BUT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.

TODAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY FOR MOST AREAS. THERE ARE NO
STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AND THERE IS NOT ANY INSTABILITY FORECAST AS A STRONG CAP WILL
BE IN PLACE. SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA WHERE THERE IS SOME
WEAK CHANNELIZED VORTICITY, WHICH COULD CREATE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING
ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND APPROACH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THERE IS NOT
MUCH, IF ANY INSTABILITY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT OUR FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. SO WE ONLY KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED MUCH BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB WITH
THE 500MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST AND ALSO BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB
AT 850MB. ONCE WE GET DOWN TO 925MB, THE WRF-NMMB LOOKS BETTER.
THE IMPLICATION OF THE 500MB DIFFERENCES (ESP IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST) IS THAT THE WRF-NMM HAS A SLIGHTLY MORE SHEARED WEAKER
SOLUTION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE LATEST GFS IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS TWO ECMWF RUNS AND NOW HAS THE HEAVIEST RAIN FLIPPED
TO THE OPPOSITE END OF OUR CWA FROM LAST NIGHT. A DP/DT VALID 18Z
SATURDAY SHOWS THIS TRANSITION WHICH STARTED WITH 06Z RUN LAST
NIGHT. WITH THE TROF DEEPER AND HANGING BACK, THE NEXT WAVE ON THE
FRONT BECOMES MUCH MORE MUTED AND THE LAST LOW ON THE WAVE TRAIN
BECOMES THE ALPHA LOW. AND THERE GOES INDEPENDENCE DAY.

LAST NIGHT IT APPEARED THE EURO WAS TOO SLOW WITH WAVE NUMBER TWO,
BUT IN REALITY AND UNFORTUNATELY ITS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE RIGHT
FOR THE WRONG REASON AS ITS WAVE NUMBER THREE THAT SHOULD MAKE IT
THREE CONSECUTIVE WET SATURDAYS IN A ROW. THE WAA INDUCED PHASE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE UNDERWAY OR ON THE VERGE OF GETTING
UNDERWAY IN THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS INDEPENDENCE DAY
STARTS. WE SEE DECENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE PLUS A WELL
POSITIONED 250MB ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET FOR THE COOL SECTOR
PCPN MAX. THE RAW QPF MAY BE OVERDONE THERE BECAUSE OF THE LACK
OF PREDICTED CONVECTION, THERE SHOULD BE A SECONDARY MAX IN THAT
PART OF THE CYCLONE.

WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN STEADIER, THERE ARE STILL SOME LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCES TO THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN OUR CWA. THE GFS IS ON
THE NORTHERN ENVELOPE. THE GEFS MEAN DOES A NORTH-SOUTH-NORTH
MEANDERING AROUND THE OP SFC LOW POSITION. WE SPREAD CONVECTIVE
CHANCES NORTHWARD AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES, BUT THE BEST CHANCE
REMAINS FROM THE MASON-DIXON AND ACY EXPRESSWAY LINE SOUTHWARD.
THIS SHOULD BE A SECONDARY 9AND POSSIBLY HIGHEST) PRECIP MAX. GFS
PCPN WATER VALUES EXCEED TWO INCHES YET AGAIN.

AS FAR AS SEVERE GOES, PREDICTED 500MB TEMPS ARE RATHER WARM, A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN 6/30. THUS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. DCAPE
IS NOT STRONG. WE WILL HAVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR, BUT MIXED
LAYER CAPES ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 1K JOULES EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY DELMARVA. SO IF THERE IS A WINDOW FOR STRONGER STORMS, ITS
FAR SOUTH AS OF NOW. THE EARLY START TO CLOUDS AND PCPN IS NOT GOING
TO HELP.

THE WAA PUSH GETS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO IF THERE IS A
SILVER LINING, THE CURRENT TIMING (PMDHMD SUGGESTS A NON-CMC BLEND)
WOULD END THE HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES TOWARD EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT
ABOUT MAX TEMPS AT BOTH ENDS OF OUR CWA: NORTHWEST CLOUDS/PCPN MAY
MAKE US TOO HIGH, SOUTHEAST, A WARM SECTOR SQUEEZE WE MAY BE TOO
LOW. FULL SUN SUPPORTIVE OF NEAR 90.

IF WE CAN BANK ON CURRENT TIMING, SHWRS AND TSTMS WOULD BE DONE BY
THE START OF ANY FIREWORK FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE
TIMING SLIPPAGE FROM LAST NIGHT, WE CARRIED A LOW CHANCE EARLY.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE BETTER WEEKEND DAY. A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CAPE, BUT HAVE THE CAP
HOLDING. ITS THE TYPE OF DAY IN WHICH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION
WOULD AFFECT LESS THAN 10% OF OUR CWA.

THE TRANSITION TO A WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEEK THEN STARTS ON
MONDAY. THIS MIGHT BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
YET ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON OUR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PREDICTED TO FORM AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH. POPS ARE GRADUALLY
INCREASED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

NO BIG CHANGES TO WED AND THU FORECASTS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR ENOUGH TO TRIGGER MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE USUAL MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE THERE WITH
THE GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. NORMALLY SLOWER IS BETTER IN SUMMER
(UNFORTUNATELY FOR SATURDAY), SO WE KEPT RELATIVELY HIGH POPS IN
FOR BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS, LEADING TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT SOME AIRPORTS.
THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE, THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. RAIN MAY
START MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY MORNING SATURDAY.
ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS, CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR OR LOWER.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE EAST TO
NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING, THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UNTIL DAYBREAK SATURDAY WHEN
THE BECOME EASTERLY AGAIN. ALL SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT..

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR, WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG, ESPECIALLY
AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR
GOING FORWARD INTO TUESDAY AS MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BEGIN INCREASING AND GUSTING
AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE STALLED FRONT, A SCA MAY BE
NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT,
SEAS MIGHT STILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF ANY SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS...NO
SYNOPTIC SCALE INDUCED MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE RECENT FULL MOON AND A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, TIDES WILL CONTINUE RUNNING HIGH. THE HIGH TIDE LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE MINOR FLOOD
LEVEL, BUT RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. THE TWO SITES THAT MAY GET THE CLOSEST
WOULD BE REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. WE`LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THROUGH THE DAY TO SEE IF AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

THEN ON SATURDAY NIGHT, THE TIDAL CONCERN SWITCHES TO THE
OCEANSIDE AS A LINGERING NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BRING ACTUAL TIDES
CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS. THE HIGHEST CONCERN
IS ALONG THE NJ COAST TOWARD NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. LOCAL REGRESSION GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NJ AND DE BEACHES TO BE JUST
BELOW MODERATE FOR TODAY, WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR A MODERATE
RISK ON SATURDAY (WHICH MAY NOT BE A GREAT BEACH DAY BECAUSE OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS).

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 030139
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE VA-NC
BORDER AND TO OUR EAST JUST OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE
EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP CAPTURED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE LAST BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE THIS
EVENING. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED LEFTOVER SHOWER OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE DELMARVA AND NEAR THE COAST BUT FOR THE MOST PART
IT WILL DRY OUT.

THE EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD
COVER THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER, BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE LATE TONIGHT. IF MORE
PERSISTENT BREAKS OCCUR THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THEN THE COVERAGE
OF FOG MAY BE GREATER, ESPECIALLY IF THE BREAKS OCCUR ACROSS THE
SAME AREAS WHERE THE GROUND IS STILL WET FROM TODAY`S RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER HEAD BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. EVEN THOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE LESS CLOUDS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST),
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE.

ANY MENTION OF THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW ARE STABLE EVEN IN OUR SOUTHERN
MOST ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD, A STALLED FRONT WILL BE LOCATED S
OF THE REGION. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOV ALG THE FRONT AND CUD
TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA SAT INTO SAT EVE. THE BEST CHCS ARE OVER
SRN AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHUD BE SCT AND OVER
WITH BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WORST OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS, IF WE HAD TO PICK ONE.

BY SUN, HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND SUN SHUD BE DRY OVER
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA, CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT.

THE MDLS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO MON. THE GFS IS
DRY. THE CMC IS ALSO DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS. RIGHT
NOW, THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER. BUT, FELT COMPELLED TO AT LEAST
INTRODUCE SOME VERY LOW POPS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS WET INTO TUE WHILE THE OTHER MDLS ARE DRY.

THEN, BY WED, MDLS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN AS A CDFNT
APPROACHES FROM THE W, PRECIP WOULD PROB LINGER INTO THU, BUT
THERE IS STILL A WEEK FOR THE MDLS TO IRON OUT ANY DIFFS IN
FRONTAL TIMING.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAT, WHICH LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE,
TEMPS SHUD BE NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED AT ACY/MIV AROUND SUNSET THIS EVE AS THE
RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z FRIDAY, THOUGH LOWER CLOUDS MAY PERSIST INTO
THE LATE MORNING ALONG THE COAST (ACY). THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS; TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT THIS TIME. EAST
WINDS MAY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT LESS THAN
10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...GENLY VFR. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHC OF
MVFR/IFR CONDS SAT AFTN/EVE IN SCT SHWRS AND PSBL TSRA. BEST CHCS
ARE FOR THE SRN TAF SITES.  MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED SUN AND TUE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LESS CERTAINTY FOR MON, DUE TO MDL DISAGREEMENT. COULD
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LOW
PRES ALG STALLED FRONT, SCA MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN
WATERS. HOWEVER,  LTST GUID INDICATES BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURG THIS PD.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED DURG THIS PD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON (WHICH OCCURRED THIS PAST WEDNESDAY) MIGHT
CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON
FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, LTST GUID
INDICATES WE SHUD STAY JUST BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA
ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. LOCAL REGRESSION GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NJ BEACHES TO BE RIGHT AT THE
CUSP FOR MODERATE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 022242
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
642 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
630 PM FORECAST UPDATE...
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SEVERAL DEGREES. IT FEELS RATHER
COOL OUT THERE FOR JULY STANDARDS AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NEVER
DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU
SUNSET SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SE PA/C AND S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.
THE COLD FRONT RESIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA, BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FOR THESE SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AS OUR REGION IS POSITIONED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE-REGION
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. THERE IS ALSO A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THAT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH, AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER THE REGION, WE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT QPF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE
AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS, NOT TO
MENTION A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (SAVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD UNDER
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET). MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL. THEREFORE
HAVE DECREASED POPS, EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THERE CONTINUES
TO BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL, GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION, IT
WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT FIRST ON IF AND WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
OF AN OFF SHORE DIRECTION. IN ADDITION, AREAS IN DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ THAT HAD RAIN TODAY MAY STILL HAVE SOME STANDING WATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD HELP FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MIV TO ACY LINE. HOWEVER,
WILL NOT MENTION ANY POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER HEAD BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. EVEN THOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE LESS CLOUDS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST),
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD, A STALLED FRONT WILL BE LOCATED S
OF THE REGION. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOV ALG THE FRONT AND CUD
TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA SAT INTO SAT EVE. THE BEST CHCS ARE OVER
SRN AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHUD BE SCT AND OVER
WITH BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WORST OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS, IF WE HAD TO PICK ONE.

BY SUN, HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND SUN SHUD BE DRY OVER
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA, CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT.

THE MDLS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO MON. THE GFS IS
DRY. THE CMC IS ALSO DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS. RIGHT
NOW, THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER. BUT, FELT COMPELLED TO AT LEAST
INTRODUCE SOME VERY LOW POPS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS WET INTO TUE WHILE THE OTHER MDLS ARE DRY.

THEN, BY WED, MDLS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN AS A CDFNT
APPROACHES FROM THE W, PRECIP WOULD PROB LINGER INTO THU, BUT
THERE IS STILL A WEEK FOR THE MDLS TO IRON OUT ANY DIFFS IN
FRONTAL TIMING.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAT, WHICH LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE,
TEMPS SHUD BE NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE STUBBORN TO ERODE ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ WHERE THE
MOST PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN THIS AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS NOW LOOK TO LINGER AT MIV AND ESPECIALLY ACY THRU AT
LEAST 00Z. AT MIV/ACY, CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS EVENING ONCE RAIN MOVES OUT BUT THAT
OPPURTUNITY IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

AFTER 06Z, BR COULD DEVELOP, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND A WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY (WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY
5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD). FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMIV, AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KACY, WHICH HAVE A
HIGHER RISK GIVEN SATURATED GROUND.

EXPECT TO RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE BY 18Z TOMORROW. THERE REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, BUT TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...GENLY VFR. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHC OF
MVFR/IFR CONDS SAT AFTN/EVE IN SCT SHWRS AND PSBL TSRA. BEST CHCS
ARE FOR THE SRN TAF SITES.  MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED SUN AND TUE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LESS CERTAINTY FOR MON, DUE TO MDL DISAGREEMENT. COULD
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LOW
PRES ALG STALLED FRONT, SCA MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN
WATERS. HOWEVER,  LTST GUID INDICATES BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURG THIS PD.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED DURG THIS PD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON (WHICH OCCURRED THIS PAST WEDNESDAY) MIGHT
CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON
FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, LTST GUID
INDICATES WE SHUD STAY JUST BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA
ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/KLEIN
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 022242
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
642 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
630 PM FORECAST UPDATE...
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SEVERAL DEGREES. IT FEELS RATHER
COOL OUT THERE FOR JULY STANDARDS AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NEVER
DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU
SUNSET SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SE PA/C AND S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.
THE COLD FRONT RESIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA, BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FOR THESE SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AS OUR REGION IS POSITIONED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE-REGION
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. THERE IS ALSO A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THAT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH, AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER THE REGION, WE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT QPF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE
AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS, NOT TO
MENTION A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (SAVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD UNDER
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET). MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL. THEREFORE
HAVE DECREASED POPS, EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THERE CONTINUES
TO BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL, GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION, IT
WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT FIRST ON IF AND WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
OF AN OFF SHORE DIRECTION. IN ADDITION, AREAS IN DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ THAT HAD RAIN TODAY MAY STILL HAVE SOME STANDING WATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD HELP FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MIV TO ACY LINE. HOWEVER,
WILL NOT MENTION ANY POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER HEAD BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. EVEN THOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE LESS CLOUDS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST),
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD, A STALLED FRONT WILL BE LOCATED S
OF THE REGION. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOV ALG THE FRONT AND CUD
TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA SAT INTO SAT EVE. THE BEST CHCS ARE OVER
SRN AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHUD BE SCT AND OVER
WITH BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WORST OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS, IF WE HAD TO PICK ONE.

BY SUN, HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND SUN SHUD BE DRY OVER
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA, CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT.

THE MDLS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO MON. THE GFS IS
DRY. THE CMC IS ALSO DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS. RIGHT
NOW, THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER. BUT, FELT COMPELLED TO AT LEAST
INTRODUCE SOME VERY LOW POPS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS WET INTO TUE WHILE THE OTHER MDLS ARE DRY.

THEN, BY WED, MDLS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN AS A CDFNT
APPROACHES FROM THE W, PRECIP WOULD PROB LINGER INTO THU, BUT
THERE IS STILL A WEEK FOR THE MDLS TO IRON OUT ANY DIFFS IN
FRONTAL TIMING.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAT, WHICH LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE,
TEMPS SHUD BE NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE STUBBORN TO ERODE ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ WHERE THE
MOST PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN THIS AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS NOW LOOK TO LINGER AT MIV AND ESPECIALLY ACY THRU AT
LEAST 00Z. AT MIV/ACY, CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS EVENING ONCE RAIN MOVES OUT BUT THAT
OPPURTUNITY IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

AFTER 06Z, BR COULD DEVELOP, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND A WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY (WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY
5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD). FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMIV, AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KACY, WHICH HAVE A
HIGHER RISK GIVEN SATURATED GROUND.

EXPECT TO RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE BY 18Z TOMORROW. THERE REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, BUT TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...GENLY VFR. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHC OF
MVFR/IFR CONDS SAT AFTN/EVE IN SCT SHWRS AND PSBL TSRA. BEST CHCS
ARE FOR THE SRN TAF SITES.  MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED SUN AND TUE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LESS CERTAINTY FOR MON, DUE TO MDL DISAGREEMENT. COULD
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LOW
PRES ALG STALLED FRONT, SCA MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN
WATERS. HOWEVER,  LTST GUID INDICATES BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURG THIS PD.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED DURG THIS PD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON (WHICH OCCURRED THIS PAST WEDNESDAY) MIGHT
CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON
FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, LTST GUID
INDICATES WE SHUD STAY JUST BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA
ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/KLEIN
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 022242
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
642 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
630 PM FORECAST UPDATE...
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SEVERAL DEGREES. IT FEELS RATHER
COOL OUT THERE FOR JULY STANDARDS AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NEVER
DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU
SUNSET SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SE PA/C AND S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.
THE COLD FRONT RESIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA, BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FOR THESE SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AS OUR REGION IS POSITIONED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE-REGION
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. THERE IS ALSO A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THAT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH, AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER THE REGION, WE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT QPF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE
AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS, NOT TO
MENTION A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (SAVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD UNDER
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET). MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL. THEREFORE
HAVE DECREASED POPS, EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THERE CONTINUES
TO BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL, GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION, IT
WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT FIRST ON IF AND WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
OF AN OFF SHORE DIRECTION. IN ADDITION, AREAS IN DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ THAT HAD RAIN TODAY MAY STILL HAVE SOME STANDING WATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD HELP FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MIV TO ACY LINE. HOWEVER,
WILL NOT MENTION ANY POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER HEAD BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. EVEN THOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE LESS CLOUDS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST),
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD, A STALLED FRONT WILL BE LOCATED S
OF THE REGION. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOV ALG THE FRONT AND CUD
TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA SAT INTO SAT EVE. THE BEST CHCS ARE OVER
SRN AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHUD BE SCT AND OVER
WITH BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WORST OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS, IF WE HAD TO PICK ONE.

BY SUN, HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND SUN SHUD BE DRY OVER
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA, CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT.

THE MDLS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO MON. THE GFS IS
DRY. THE CMC IS ALSO DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS. RIGHT
NOW, THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER. BUT, FELT COMPELLED TO AT LEAST
INTRODUCE SOME VERY LOW POPS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS WET INTO TUE WHILE THE OTHER MDLS ARE DRY.

THEN, BY WED, MDLS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN AS A CDFNT
APPROACHES FROM THE W, PRECIP WOULD PROB LINGER INTO THU, BUT
THERE IS STILL A WEEK FOR THE MDLS TO IRON OUT ANY DIFFS IN
FRONTAL TIMING.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAT, WHICH LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE,
TEMPS SHUD BE NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE STUBBORN TO ERODE ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ WHERE THE
MOST PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN THIS AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS NOW LOOK TO LINGER AT MIV AND ESPECIALLY ACY THRU AT
LEAST 00Z. AT MIV/ACY, CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS EVENING ONCE RAIN MOVES OUT BUT THAT
OPPURTUNITY IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

AFTER 06Z, BR COULD DEVELOP, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND A WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY (WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY
5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD). FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMIV, AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KACY, WHICH HAVE A
HIGHER RISK GIVEN SATURATED GROUND.

EXPECT TO RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE BY 18Z TOMORROW. THERE REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, BUT TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...GENLY VFR. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHC OF
MVFR/IFR CONDS SAT AFTN/EVE IN SCT SHWRS AND PSBL TSRA. BEST CHCS
ARE FOR THE SRN TAF SITES.  MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED SUN AND TUE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LESS CERTAINTY FOR MON, DUE TO MDL DISAGREEMENT. COULD
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LOW
PRES ALG STALLED FRONT, SCA MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN
WATERS. HOWEVER,  LTST GUID INDICATES BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURG THIS PD.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED DURG THIS PD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON (WHICH OCCURRED THIS PAST WEDNESDAY) MIGHT
CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON
FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, LTST GUID
INDICATES WE SHUD STAY JUST BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA
ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/KLEIN
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 021950
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH, AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER THE REGION, WE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT QPF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE
AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS, NOT TO
MENTION A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (SAVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD UNDER
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET). MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL. THEREFORE
HAVE DECREASED POPS, EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THERE CONTINUES
TO BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL, GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION, IT
WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT FIRST ON IF AND WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
OF AN OFF SHORE DIRECTION. IN ADDITION, AREAS IN DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ THAT HAD RAIN TODAY MAY STILL HAVE SOME STANDING WATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD HELP FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MIV TO ACY LINE. HOWEVER,
WILL NOT MENTION ANY POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER HEAD BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. EVEN THOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE LESS CLOUDS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST),
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD, A STALLED FRONT WILL BE LOCATED S
OF THE REGION. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOV ALG THE FRONT AND CUD
TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA SAT INTO SAT EVE. THE BEST CHCS ARE OVER
SRN AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHUD BE SCT AND OVER
WITH BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WORST OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS, IF WE HAD TO PICK ONE.

BY SUN, HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND SUN SHUD BE DRY OVER
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA, CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT.

THE MDLS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO MON. THE GFS IS
DRY. THE CMC IS ALSO DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS. RIGHT
NOW, THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER. BUT, FELT COMPELLED TO AT LEAST
INTRODUCE SOME VERY LOW POPS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS WET INTO TUE WHILE THE OTHER MDLS ARE DRY.

THEN, BY WED, MDLS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN AS A CDFNT
APPROACHES FROM THE W, PRECIP WOULD PROB LINGER INTO THU, BUT
THERE IS STILL A WEEK FOR THE MDLS TO IRON OUT ANY DIFFS IN
FRONTAL TIMING.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAT, WHICH LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE,
TEMPS SHUD BE NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z. THE ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE UNDER ANY TRANSIENT SHOWERS WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS (OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS FOR KMIV OR KACY). HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

AFTER 06Z, BR COULD DEVELOP, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND A WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY (WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY
5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD). FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMIV, AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KACY, WHICH HAVE A
HIGHER RISK GIVEN SATURATED GROUND.

EXPECT TO RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE BY 18Z TOMORROW. THERE REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, BUT TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT
THIS TIME.


OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...GENLY VFR. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHC OF
MVFR/IFR CONDS SAT AFTN/EVE IN SCT SHWRS AND PSBL TSRA. BEST CHCS
ARE FOR THE SRN TAF SITES.  MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED SUN AND TUE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LESS CERTAINTY FOR MON, DUE TO MDL DISAGREEMENT. COULD
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LOW
PRES ALG STALLED FRONT, SCA MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN
WATERS. HOWEVER,  LTST GUID INDICATES BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURG THIS PD.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED DURG THIS PD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON (WHICH OCCURRED THIS PAST WEDNESDAY) MIGHT
CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON
FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, LTST GUID
INDICATES WE SHUD STAY JUST BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA
ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 021950
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH, AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER THE REGION, WE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT QPF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE
AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS, NOT TO
MENTION A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (SAVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD UNDER
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET). MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL. THEREFORE
HAVE DECREASED POPS, EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THERE CONTINUES
TO BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL, GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION, IT
WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT FIRST ON IF AND WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
OF AN OFF SHORE DIRECTION. IN ADDITION, AREAS IN DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ THAT HAD RAIN TODAY MAY STILL HAVE SOME STANDING WATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD HELP FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MIV TO ACY LINE. HOWEVER,
WILL NOT MENTION ANY POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER HEAD BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. EVEN THOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE LESS CLOUDS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST),
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD, A STALLED FRONT WILL BE LOCATED S
OF THE REGION. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOV ALG THE FRONT AND CUD
TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA SAT INTO SAT EVE. THE BEST CHCS ARE OVER
SRN AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHUD BE SCT AND OVER
WITH BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WORST OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS, IF WE HAD TO PICK ONE.

BY SUN, HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND SUN SHUD BE DRY OVER
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA, CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT.

THE MDLS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO MON. THE GFS IS
DRY. THE CMC IS ALSO DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS. RIGHT
NOW, THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER. BUT, FELT COMPELLED TO AT LEAST
INTRODUCE SOME VERY LOW POPS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS WET INTO TUE WHILE THE OTHER MDLS ARE DRY.

THEN, BY WED, MDLS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN AS A CDFNT
APPROACHES FROM THE W, PRECIP WOULD PROB LINGER INTO THU, BUT
THERE IS STILL A WEEK FOR THE MDLS TO IRON OUT ANY DIFFS IN
FRONTAL TIMING.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAT, WHICH LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE,
TEMPS SHUD BE NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z. THE ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE UNDER ANY TRANSIENT SHOWERS WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS (OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS FOR KMIV OR KACY). HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

AFTER 06Z, BR COULD DEVELOP, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND A WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY (WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY
5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD). FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMIV, AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KACY, WHICH HAVE A
HIGHER RISK GIVEN SATURATED GROUND.

EXPECT TO RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE BY 18Z TOMORROW. THERE REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, BUT TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT
THIS TIME.


OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...GENLY VFR. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHC OF
MVFR/IFR CONDS SAT AFTN/EVE IN SCT SHWRS AND PSBL TSRA. BEST CHCS
ARE FOR THE SRN TAF SITES.  MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED SUN AND TUE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LESS CERTAINTY FOR MON, DUE TO MDL DISAGREEMENT. COULD
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LOW
PRES ALG STALLED FRONT, SCA MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN
WATERS. HOWEVER,  LTST GUID INDICATES BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURG THIS PD.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED DURG THIS PD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON (WHICH OCCURRED THIS PAST WEDNESDAY) MIGHT
CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON
FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, LTST GUID
INDICATES WE SHUD STAY JUST BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA
ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021950
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH, AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER THE REGION, WE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT QPF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE
AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS, NOT TO
MENTION A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (SAVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD UNDER
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET). MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL. THEREFORE
HAVE DECREASED POPS, EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THERE CONTINUES
TO BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL, GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION, IT
WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT FIRST ON IF AND WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
OF AN OFF SHORE DIRECTION. IN ADDITION, AREAS IN DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ THAT HAD RAIN TODAY MAY STILL HAVE SOME STANDING WATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD HELP FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MIV TO ACY LINE. HOWEVER,
WILL NOT MENTION ANY POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER HEAD BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. EVEN THOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE LESS CLOUDS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST),
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD, A STALLED FRONT WILL BE LOCATED S
OF THE REGION. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOV ALG THE FRONT AND CUD
TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA SAT INTO SAT EVE. THE BEST CHCS ARE OVER
SRN AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHUD BE SCT AND OVER
WITH BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WORST OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS, IF WE HAD TO PICK ONE.

BY SUN, HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND SUN SHUD BE DRY OVER
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA, CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT.

THE MDLS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO MON. THE GFS IS
DRY. THE CMC IS ALSO DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS. RIGHT
NOW, THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER. BUT, FELT COMPELLED TO AT LEAST
INTRODUCE SOME VERY LOW POPS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS WET INTO TUE WHILE THE OTHER MDLS ARE DRY.

THEN, BY WED, MDLS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN AS A CDFNT
APPROACHES FROM THE W, PRECIP WOULD PROB LINGER INTO THU, BUT
THERE IS STILL A WEEK FOR THE MDLS TO IRON OUT ANY DIFFS IN
FRONTAL TIMING.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAT, WHICH LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE,
TEMPS SHUD BE NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z. THE ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE UNDER ANY TRANSIENT SHOWERS WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS (OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS FOR KMIV OR KACY). HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

AFTER 06Z, BR COULD DEVELOP, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND A WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY (WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY
5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD). FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMIV, AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KACY, WHICH HAVE A
HIGHER RISK GIVEN SATURATED GROUND.

EXPECT TO RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE BY 18Z TOMORROW. THERE REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, BUT TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT
THIS TIME.


OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...GENLY VFR. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHC OF
MVFR/IFR CONDS SAT AFTN/EVE IN SCT SHWRS AND PSBL TSRA. BEST CHCS
ARE FOR THE SRN TAF SITES.  MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED SUN AND TUE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LESS CERTAINTY FOR MON, DUE TO MDL DISAGREEMENT. COULD
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LOW
PRES ALG STALLED FRONT, SCA MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN
WATERS. HOWEVER,  LTST GUID INDICATES BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURG THIS PD.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED DURG THIS PD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON (WHICH OCCURRED THIS PAST WEDNESDAY) MIGHT
CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON
FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, LTST GUID
INDICATES WE SHUD STAY JUST BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA
ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...





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