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000
FXUS61 KPHI 180128
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
928 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TONIGHT, BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WE HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MANY CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DRY AND PLEASANT AIR
MASS IN PLACE. THE DIURNAL CU/SC HAVE DISSIPATED AND SKIES ARE CLR
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES DROPPING STEADILY...AND SHOULD
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 40S NORTH AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WE KEPT IN THE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
USUALLY FOGGY SPOTS (LEHIGH VALLEY...SRN POCONOS AND PINE
BARRENS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY AS THE AXIS OF
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. A SPRINKLE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS THIS AXIS
MOVES EAST, BUT RIGHT NOW PRECIPITATION IS NOT MENTIONED GIVEN THE
LOW CHANCES OF THIS ACTUALLY HAPPENING. LATER SHIFTS CAN RAISE THE
POPS SLIGHTLY IF SPRINKLES BECOME MORE LIKELY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE MID 60S IN THE FAR NORTH, AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH...JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TO START OUT, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, THEN PUSH OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH PW
VALUES LESS THAN ONE HALF/THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH, WE EXPECT A
DRY FORECAST.

WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY NOT PASS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. THERE IS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED VERTICAL
MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY,
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISSIPATE SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT
REACHES OUR AREA, BUT THEY BOTH STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS
THE AREA. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY IS FORECAST, SO WE DO
NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. PW
VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, SO
WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER
COASTER. SLIGHTLY BELOW FRIDAY, THEN ABOVE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY, THEN NEAR NORMAL MONDAY, AND BACK BELOW TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NO EXTREMES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
KMIV AND KRDG, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT. A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT ANY SUCH
ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR, EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY/FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS
15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH EDOUARD ARE EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THEN SEAS START TO SUBSIDE AS EDOUARD MOVES EAST WELL
AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY INCREASE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN. SEAS MAY ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AN EASTERLY FETCH BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY...WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY PRIMARILY
DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD, WHICH REMAINS WELL OUT
TO SEA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
RIP CURRENTS...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 180128
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
928 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TONIGHT, BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
WE HAVE NOT NEEDED TO MAKE MANY CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A DRY AND PLEASANT AIR
MASS IN PLACE. THE DIURNAL CU/SC HAVE DISSIPATED AND SKIES ARE CLR
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES DROPPING STEADILY...AND SHOULD
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 40S NORTH AND MID 40S TO LOW 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WE KEPT IN THE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE
USUALLY FOGGY SPOTS (LEHIGH VALLEY...SRN POCONOS AND PINE
BARRENS).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY AS THE AXIS OF
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. A SPRINKLE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS THIS AXIS
MOVES EAST, BUT RIGHT NOW PRECIPITATION IS NOT MENTIONED GIVEN THE
LOW CHANCES OF THIS ACTUALLY HAPPENING. LATER SHIFTS CAN RAISE THE
POPS SLIGHTLY IF SPRINKLES BECOME MORE LIKELY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE MID 60S IN THE FAR NORTH, AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH...JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TO START OUT, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, THEN PUSH OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH PW
VALUES LESS THAN ONE HALF/THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH, WE EXPECT A
DRY FORECAST.

WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY NOT PASS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. THERE IS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED VERTICAL
MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY,
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISSIPATE SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT
REACHES OUR AREA, BUT THEY BOTH STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS
THE AREA. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY IS FORECAST, SO WE DO
NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. PW
VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, SO
WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER
COASTER. SLIGHTLY BELOW FRIDAY, THEN ABOVE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY, THEN NEAR NORMAL MONDAY, AND BACK BELOW TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NO EXTREMES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
KMIV AND KRDG, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT. A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT ANY SUCH
ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR, EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY/FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS
15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS IN THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH EDOUARD ARE EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THEN SEAS START TO SUBSIDE AS EDOUARD MOVES EAST WELL
AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY INCREASE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN. SEAS MAY ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AN EASTERLY FETCH BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY...WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY PRIMARILY
DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD, WHICH REMAINS WELL OUT
TO SEA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 171914
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
314 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TONIGHT, BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, AND NIGHTS THAT ARE GETTING LONGER,
PATCHY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT. THE FOGGER TOOL WAS
USED TO INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG INTO THE WEATHER GRIDS. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE FAR
NORTH, AND IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY AS THE AXIS OF
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. A SPRINKLE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS THIS AXIS
MOVES EAST, BUT RIGHT NOW PRECIPITATION IS NOT MENTIONED GIVEN THE
LOW CHANCES OF THIS ACTUALLY HAPPENING. LATER SHIFTS CAN RAISE THE
POPS SLIGHTLY IF SPRINKLES BECOME MORE LIKELY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE MID 60S IN THE FAR NORTH, AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH...JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TO START OUT, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, THEN PUSH OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH PW
VALUES LESS THAN ONE HALF/THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH, WE EXPECT A
DRY FORECAST.

WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY NOT PASS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. THERE IS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED VERTICAL
MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY,
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISSIPATE SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT
REACHES OUR AREA, BUT THEY BOTH STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS
THE AREA. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY IS FORECAST, SO WE DO
NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. PW
VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, SO
WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER
COASTER. SLIGHTLY BELOW FRIDAY, THEN ABOVE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY, THEN NEAR NORMAL MONDAY, AND BACK BELOW TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NO EXTREMES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
KMIV AND KRDG, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT. A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT ANY SUCH
ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR, EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY/FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS
15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT RANGE WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH EDOUARD ARE EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THEN SEAS START TO SUBSIDE AS EDOUARD MOVES EAST WELL AWAY
FROM THE EAST COAST. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY INCREASE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN. SEAS MAY ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AN EASTERLY FETCH BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY...WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY AND THIS EVENING
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD, WHICH REMAINS
WELL OUT TO SEA. THE ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK COULD CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
RIP CURRENTS...MIKETTA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 171914
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
314 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TONIGHT, BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST. WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE, MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, AND NIGHTS THAT ARE GETTING LONGER,
PATCHY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT. THE FOGGER TOOL WAS
USED TO INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG INTO THE WEATHER GRIDS. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE FAR
NORTH, AND IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY AS THE AXIS OF
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. A SPRINKLE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS THIS AXIS
MOVES EAST, BUT RIGHT NOW PRECIPITATION IS NOT MENTIONED GIVEN THE
LOW CHANCES OF THIS ACTUALLY HAPPENING. LATER SHIFTS CAN RAISE THE
POPS SLIGHTLY IF SPRINKLES BECOME MORE LIKELY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
THE MID 60S IN THE FAR NORTH, AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH...JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TO START OUT, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, THEN PUSH OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH PW
VALUES LESS THAN ONE HALF/THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH, WE EXPECT A
DRY FORECAST.

WITH THE HIGH OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MAY NOT PASS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY EFFECTS. THERE IS A WEAK
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT WITH LIMITED VERTICAL
MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY,
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISSIPATE SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE IT
REACHES OUR AREA, BUT THEY BOTH STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS
THE AREA. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY. LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY IS FORECAST, SO WE DO
NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. PW
VALUES DROP TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, SO
WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER
COASTER. SLIGHTLY BELOW FRIDAY, THEN ABOVE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY, THEN NEAR NORMAL MONDAY, AND BACK BELOW TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NO EXTREMES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW
GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
KMIV AND KRDG, AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION.

THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT. A FEW SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, BUT ANY SUCH
ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON AVIATION OPERATIONS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR, EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY/FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITHIN A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR
DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY...SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS
15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS IN THE 4 TO 5 FOOT RANGE WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED
WITH EDOUARD ARE EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. THEN SEAS START TO SUBSIDE AS EDOUARD MOVES EAST WELL AWAY
FROM THE EAST COAST. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO A LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS MAY INCREASE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN. SEAS MAY ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT AS AN EASTERLY FETCH BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS,
BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND
INCREASING WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY...WINDS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY AND THIS EVENING
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD, WHICH REMAINS
WELL OUT TO SEA. THE ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK COULD CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MIKETTA
RIP CURRENTS...MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 171317
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
917 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT BY TO OUR NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION LATE SUNDAY. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD IN FOR LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN
RIVER VALLEYS...HAS DISSIPATED. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION BY MID DAY, WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS,
COMBINED WITH SOME AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
WARMER DAY TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THANKS TO THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AS SUCH, THE BIG QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE IF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE IN OVER THE REGION OR IF THEY WILL HOLD OFF
LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT TRANQUIL WEATHER AND ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND
RIDGE NEAR THE ROCKIES TO START. THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO
MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AND ALSO WEAKEN SOME. THIS RESULTS
IN MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION FOR A
TIME. SOME RIDGE DEVELOPMENT THOUGH OUT WEST LOOKS TO ALLOW A SHORT
WAVE TO DIVE INTO THE MIDWEST SATURDAY, WHICH RESULTS IN A TROUGH
AMPLIFYING SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY DEEPEN FURTHER AS WE GO THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
APPEARS TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA, ONE /WEAK/
THURSDAY THEN A PERHAPS A STRONGER ONE LATE SUNDAY. WE USED A
GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED IN
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE EAST THURSDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RESULT, HOWEVER THE
BOUNDARY THIS FAR SOUTH LOOKS WEAKER WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. IN ADDITION, THE MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT IS
LIMITED AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN GENERAL LOOK FAIRLY DRY. BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR PHILADELPHIA SHOW A CAP NEAR
7000 FEET DURING SUNDAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE
COULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AROUND THE DELMARVA, AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES WE WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST. ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALONG WITH A CHILLIER AIRMASS
ADVECTING IN. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED
WITH THE CAA TO KEEP A LITTLE WIND GOING EVEN INLAND, THEREFORE AS
OF NOW THE THREAT FOR ANY INLAND FROST LOOKS LOW THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
WITH OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING EASTERLY. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
FORECAST TO BE LINGERING WELL OFFSHORE ESPECIALLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST,
AND THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO OUR AREA MAY RESULT IN SOME
OCEAN-INFLUENCED CLOUDINESS. AS OF NOW, NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH OF
THIS CAN DEVELOP GIVEN THE INITIAL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS. AS OF
NOW, WE DID NOT EMPHASIZE THE CLOUD COVER MUCH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A NEW AIRMASS AND THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
RESULT IN A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE CWA, AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ELONGATED INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AS IT STARTS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS
OCCURS AS SOME WAA GETS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND
HEIGHTS START TO RISE. THIS MAY RESULT IN A NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT
THAT MOSTLY SLIDES JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST, AND WARMER AIR ARRIVING
ACROSS OUR CWA ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. A SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE LOW EASTWARD. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD TAKE THE SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH THOUGH DURING SUNDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HOWEVER WILL ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA LATE
SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. THE TIMING APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP
SOME. A BAND OF SHOWERS MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT ARRIVES DUE TO
THE BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT PEELING AWAY TO THE NORTH. WE
GENERALLY FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND WPC GUIDANCE, WHICH
PAINTS SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY AMPLIFY
FURTHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOWER REGARDING THE DETAILS. BASED
ON RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS, AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING TUESDAY.
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS OCCURRING MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY POST-FRONTAL AS SOME SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. FOR NOW, KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHC
TO LOW CHC POPS EARLY MONDAY THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE EAST
DURING THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY TIED TO THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE
AREA. WE CARRIED A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z
TONIGHT. IF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS DO NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT, THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF PATCHY FG DEVELOPING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION AND COULD AFFECT KACY, KMIV, AND KABE. HOWEVER,
IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON NOT ONLY THE EXTENT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OR LACK THEREOF, BUT ALSO HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE LATE TODAY WITH THE SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH ALL OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES, FOG IMPACTS AT TERMINALS IS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN AN ONSHORE FLOW MAY HELP DEVELOP SOME LOW CLOUDS
FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF SOME EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG SATURDAY, OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT EARLY IN THE DAY TODAY, BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT SEAS
COULD BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET THROUGH THE DAY TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WHICH REMAINS WELL OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER, SO FAR BUOY DATA SHOW WAVE HEIGHTS EVEN AT BUOY 44066
REMAINING BELOW 3 FT, OR ABOUT 1 TO 2 FT BELOW WHAT GUIDANCE WAS
SHOWING FOR THIS TIME. THEREFORE, THINK THAT THE GUIDANCE IS OVER
FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF EDOUARD SWELL HEIGHTS, AND HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED WAVE HEIGHTS TO 4 FT AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS AT 44066 AND
44009 WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY, THEN STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, AND
THERE APPEARS TO BE A WIND SURGE MOVING SOUTHWARD LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH AN INITIAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND CAA. THE WINDS SHOULD THEN TURN EASTERLY BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS
SURGE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR 25-KNOT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET
ON THE COASTAL WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS SHOULD TURN FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY. THE WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, AND THE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME AS THE
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY AND THIS EVENING
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD, WHICH REMAINS
WELL OUT TO SEA. THE ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK COULD CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 171317
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
917 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT BY TO OUR NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION LATE SUNDAY. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD IN FOR LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN
RIVER VALLEYS...HAS DISSIPATED. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION BY MID DAY, WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS,
COMBINED WITH SOME AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY
WARMER DAY TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THANKS TO THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AS SUCH, THE BIG QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE IF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE IN OVER THE REGION OR IF THEY WILL HOLD OFF
LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT TRANQUIL WEATHER AND ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND
RIDGE NEAR THE ROCKIES TO START. THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO
MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AND ALSO WEAKEN SOME. THIS RESULTS
IN MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION FOR A
TIME. SOME RIDGE DEVELOPMENT THOUGH OUT WEST LOOKS TO ALLOW A SHORT
WAVE TO DIVE INTO THE MIDWEST SATURDAY, WHICH RESULTS IN A TROUGH
AMPLIFYING SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY DEEPEN FURTHER AS WE GO THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
APPEARS TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA, ONE /WEAK/
THURSDAY THEN A PERHAPS A STRONGER ONE LATE SUNDAY. WE USED A
GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED IN
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE EAST THURSDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RESULT, HOWEVER THE
BOUNDARY THIS FAR SOUTH LOOKS WEAKER WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. IN ADDITION, THE MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT IS
LIMITED AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN GENERAL LOOK FAIRLY DRY. BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR PHILADELPHIA SHOW A CAP NEAR
7000 FEET DURING SUNDAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE
COULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AROUND THE DELMARVA, AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES WE WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST. ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALONG WITH A CHILLIER AIRMASS
ADVECTING IN. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED
WITH THE CAA TO KEEP A LITTLE WIND GOING EVEN INLAND, THEREFORE AS
OF NOW THE THREAT FOR ANY INLAND FROST LOOKS LOW THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
WITH OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING EASTERLY. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
FORECAST TO BE LINGERING WELL OFFSHORE ESPECIALLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST,
AND THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO OUR AREA MAY RESULT IN SOME
OCEAN-INFLUENCED CLOUDINESS. AS OF NOW, NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH OF
THIS CAN DEVELOP GIVEN THE INITIAL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS. AS OF
NOW, WE DID NOT EMPHASIZE THE CLOUD COVER MUCH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A NEW AIRMASS AND THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
RESULT IN A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE CWA, AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ELONGATED INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AS IT STARTS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS
OCCURS AS SOME WAA GETS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND
HEIGHTS START TO RISE. THIS MAY RESULT IN A NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT
THAT MOSTLY SLIDES JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST, AND WARMER AIR ARRIVING
ACROSS OUR CWA ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. A SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE LOW EASTWARD. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD TAKE THE SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH THOUGH DURING SUNDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HOWEVER WILL ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA LATE
SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. THE TIMING APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP
SOME. A BAND OF SHOWERS MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT ARRIVES DUE TO
THE BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT PEELING AWAY TO THE NORTH. WE
GENERALLY FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND WPC GUIDANCE, WHICH
PAINTS SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY AMPLIFY
FURTHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOWER REGARDING THE DETAILS. BASED
ON RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS, AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING TUESDAY.
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS OCCURRING MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY POST-FRONTAL AS SOME SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. FOR NOW, KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHC
TO LOW CHC POPS EARLY MONDAY THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE EAST
DURING THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY TIED TO THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE
AREA. WE CARRIED A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z
TONIGHT. IF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS DO NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT, THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF PATCHY FG DEVELOPING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION AND COULD AFFECT KACY, KMIV, AND KABE. HOWEVER,
IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON NOT ONLY THE EXTENT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OR LACK THEREOF, BUT ALSO HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE LATE TODAY WITH THE SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH ALL OF
THESE UNCERTAINTIES, FOG IMPACTS AT TERMINALS IS UNLIKELY AT THIS
TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN AN ONSHORE FLOW MAY HELP DEVELOP SOME LOW CLOUDS
FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF SOME EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG SATURDAY, OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT EARLY IN THE DAY TODAY, BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT SEAS
COULD BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET THROUGH THE DAY TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WHICH REMAINS WELL OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER, SO FAR BUOY DATA SHOW WAVE HEIGHTS EVEN AT BUOY 44066
REMAINING BELOW 3 FT, OR ABOUT 1 TO 2 FT BELOW WHAT GUIDANCE WAS
SHOWING FOR THIS TIME. THEREFORE, THINK THAT THE GUIDANCE IS OVER
FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF EDOUARD SWELL HEIGHTS, AND HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED WAVE HEIGHTS TO 4 FT AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS AT 44066 AND
44009 WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY, THEN STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, AND
THERE APPEARS TO BE A WIND SURGE MOVING SOUTHWARD LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH AN INITIAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND CAA. THE WINDS SHOULD THEN TURN EASTERLY BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS
SURGE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR 25-KNOT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET
ON THE COASTAL WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS SHOULD TURN FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY. THE WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, AND THE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME AS THE
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY AND THIS EVENING
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD, WHICH REMAINS
WELL OUT TO SEA. THE ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK COULD CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON/MIKETTA
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON









000
FXUS61 KPHI 170722
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
322 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THURSDAY. A STRENGTHENING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY LIFT BY TO OUR NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION LATE SUNDAY. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD IN FOR LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION BY MID DAY, WILL SEE A WIND
SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY TODAY AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THANKS TO THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
AS SUCH, THE BIG QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE IF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE IN OVER THE REGION OR IF THEY WILL HOLD OFF
LONG ENOUGH FOR SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT TRANQUIL WEATHER AND ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND
RIDGE NEAR THE ROCKIES TO START. THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO
MIGRATE EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AND ALSO WEAKEN SOME. THIS RESULTS
IN MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE NATION FOR A
TIME. SOME RIDGE DEVELOPMENT THOUGH OUT WEST LOOKS TO ALLOW A SHORT
WAVE TO DIVE INTO THE MIDWEST SATURDAY, WHICH RESULTS IN A TROUGH
AMPLIFYING SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS TROUGH MAY DEEPEN FURTHER AS WE GO THROUGH TUESDAY. IT
APPEARS TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA, ONE /WEAK/
THURSDAY THEN A PERHAPS A STRONGER ONE LATE SUNDAY. WE USED A
GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED IN
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS
THE EAST THURSDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TRACKS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA AS A RESULT, HOWEVER THE
BOUNDARY THIS FAR SOUTH LOOKS WEAKER WITH THE BULK OF THE LIFT
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. IN ADDITION, THE MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT IS
LIMITED AND THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN GENERAL LOOK FAIRLY DRY. BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR PHILADELPHIA SHOW A CAP NEAR
7000 FEET DURING SUNDAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE
COULD BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AROUND THE DELMARVA, AFTER
COLLABORATING WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES WE WENT WITH A DRY
FORECAST. ONCE THE FRONT SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND ALONG WITH A CHILLIER AIRMASS
ADVECTING IN. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED
WITH THE CAA TO KEEP A LITTLE WIND GOING EVEN INLAND, THEREFORE AS
OF NOW THE THREAT FOR ANY INLAND FROST LOOKS LOW THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FRIDAY
WITH OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING EASTERLY. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE
FORECAST TO BE LINGERING WELL OFFSHORE ESPECIALLY TO OUR SOUTHEAST,
AND THE ONSHORE FLOW INTO OUR AREA MAY RESULT IN SOME
OCEAN-INFLUENCED CLOUDINESS. AS OF NOW, NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH OF
THIS CAN DEVELOP GIVEN THE INITIAL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS. AS OF
NOW, WE DID NOT EMPHASIZE THE CLOUD COVER MUCH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF A NEW AIRMASS AND THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD
RESULT IN A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE CWA, AND POTENTIALLY BREEZY CLOSER
TO THE COAST.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ELONGATED INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AS IT STARTS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE. THIS
OCCURS AS SOME WAA GETS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AND
HEIGHTS START TO RISE. THIS MAY RESULT IN A NORTHBOUND WARM FRONT
THAT MOSTLY SLIDES JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST, AND WARMER AIR ARRIVING
ACROSS OUR CWA ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. A SHORT WAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A
SURFACE LOW EASTWARD. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD TAKE THE SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH THOUGH DURING SUNDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HOWEVER WILL ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA LATE
SUNDAY WITH PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS. THE TIMING APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP
SOME. A BAND OF SHOWERS MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT ARRIVES DUE TO
THE BULK OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT PEELING AWAY TO THE NORTH. WE
GENERALLY FAVORED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND WPC GUIDANCE, WHICH
PAINTS SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY AMPLIFY
FURTHER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOWER REGARDING THE DETAILS. BASED
ON RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS, AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST
TO BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES LATER MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, WITH THIS FEATURE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING TUESDAY.
SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME INSTABILITY TYPE SHOWERS OCCURRING MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY POST-FRONTAL AS SOME SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE
OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. FOR NOW, KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHC
TO LOW CHC POPS EARLY MONDAY THEN SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE EAST
DURING THE REMAINDER OF MONDAY TIED TO THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE
AREA. WE CARRIED A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 4000 AND 7000 FT AGL ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING, AND AGAIN AFTER 21Z, BUT LITTLE ELSE IN THE WAY OF
CEILINGS. IF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS DO NOT MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT, THERE IS A SMALL THREAT OF PATCHY FG DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION AND COULD AFFECT KACY, KMIV, AND KABE. HOWEVER, IT IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON NOT ONLY THE EXTENT OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS OR LACK
THEREOF, BUT ALSO HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE
TODAY WITH THE SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH ALL OF THESE
UNCERTAINTIES, FOG IMPACTS AT TERMINALS IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY, THEN AN ONSHORE FLOW MAY HELP DEVELOP SOME LOW CLOUDS
FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF SOME EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG SATURDAY, OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT EARLY IN THE DAY TODAY, BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT SEAS
COULD BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET THROUGH THE DAY TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD WHICH REMAINS WELL OUT TO SEA.
HOWEVER, SO FAR BUOY DATA SHOW WAVE HEIGHTS EVEN AT BUOY 44066
REMAINING BELOW 3 FT, OR ABOUT 1 TO 2 FT BELOW WHAT GUIDANCE WAS
SHOWING FOR THIS TIME. THEREFORE, THINK THAT THE GUIDANCE IS OVER
FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF EDOUARD SWELL HEIGHTS, AND HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED WAVE HEIGHTS TO 4 FT AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS AT 44066 AND
44009 WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY, THEN STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, AND
THERE APPEARS TO BE A WIND SURGE MOVING SOUTHWARD LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH AN INITIAL TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND CAA. THE WINDS SHOULD THEN TURN EASTERLY BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS
SURGE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR 25-KNOT WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FEET
ON THE COASTAL WATERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS SHOULD TURN FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DEPARTS TO THE
EAST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY. THE WINDS SHOULD BE
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, AND THE SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME AS THE
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY AND THIS EVENING
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD, WHICH REMAINS
WELL OUT TO SEA. THE ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK COULD CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 170106
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
906 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. SEEING SOME TYPICAL RADIATIONAL
FALL NIGHT DISCONTINUITIES WITH PRESENT TEMPS VS FORECASTS WHICH
WILL SETTLE AS WE PROGRESS OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST OR NORTH WIND OR CALM AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. ATTM NOT EXPECTING FROST. 12Z
GUIDANCE GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM AND MINS ABOUT THE
SAME OR A COUPLE WARMER THAN EARLY YDY...GENERALLY 40S TO AROUND
50 COUNTRYSIDE AND LOWER TO MID 50S URBAN CENTERS. ISOLATED UPPER
30S POSSIBLE NW NJ/NE PA. TEMPS TONIGHT ARE MAYBE 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE PER THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...LOOKS VERY NICE WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD MAINTAINS CONTROL. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
OTHERWISE A LIGHT N-NE WIND DURING THE MORNING TRENDS SOUTHERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/16 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TO START OUT, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET SQUEEZED OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTHWEST. WITH PW`S BELOW AN INCH, NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY; ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT MAY
WASH OUT BEFORE IT GETS HERE. THE GFS AND NAM ARE TRYING TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME QPF AS THE SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE, PW`S ONLY
TOUCHING AN INCH AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, SO
IF ANY PRECIPITATION DID OCCUR, MOST PROBABLY WOULD NOT REACH THE
GROUND. SO FOR NOW WE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TO THE
FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, THEN PUSH OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH PW
VALUES LESS THAN ONE HALF/THREE QUARTERS, WE EXPECT A DRY FORECAST.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT
WITH LIMITED VERTICAL MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY,
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH START TO DISSIPATE THE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE IT REACHES OUR AREA. HOWEVER, WE WILL STILL CARRY A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

TONIGHT...VFR BECOMING CLEAR. LIGHT N-NW WIND. POSSIBLE SPOTTY
COUNTRYSIDE FOG NEAR SUNRISE AND USED THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL. SO
FAR NO FOG IN THE TAFS BUT THAT MAY BE ADDED IN LATER VERSIONS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. LIGHT N-NE WIND UNDER 10 KT BECOMES S OR SW LATE
IN THE DAY EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR, EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY/FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITHIN
A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND DEPARTING COASTAL SNJ WEAK LOW PRESSURE
THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS-SWELLS COULD BUILD 3 OR
4 FT TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FEELING SOME SUBTLE SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD AT THIS TIME...14
SECOND 1 FT.

THE PRIMARY SWELL FROM EDOUARD IS STILL EAST OF 70W AND STRUGGLING
TO EDGE WESTWARD. 44066 - TEXAS TOWER BUOY 75 NM EAST OF THE NJ
COAST HAS HAD A STEADY STATE 2 FT SWELL THE PAST 24 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY...ATTM HAVE NO PLANS FOR AN SCA AND CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
TONIGHT AND 5 FT TOMORROW AND MY CONFIDENCE IN 5 FT SEAS TOMORROW
IS BELOW AVG. SAME PHILOSOPHY AS WRITTEN SINCE LATE YDY...A PROBABLE
HIGH BIAS IN THE GFS WW SWELL GUIDANCE FOR OUR AREA AS EDOUARD
TURNS NNE WELL E OF 70W TAKING ITS ENVELOPE OF HIGH SWELLS WITH
IT. WE`LL KNOW IF WE ARE CORRECT ON THIS THINKING AROUND 01Z/17-
TONIGHT WHEN SWELLS SHOULD BE INCREASING AT 44009 AND 44065
ACCORDING THE GFS WW FCST. THE HURRICANE MODEL IS FCSTG SEAS A
FOOT LESS THAN THE GFS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF A NE WIND 15-20 KT AT THE ENTRANCE TO DE BAY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDING A 2 FT WW TO WHATEVER SWELL IS OUT THERE.
THAT COULD MEAN 5 FOOTERS FOR S SHORT TIME DURING THE MORNING
AROUND 10-17Z. ATTM...NO SCA BUT WILL BE REVIEWED.

IF 6 FOOT SWELLS MAKES IT TO 44066 LATE TONIGHT THEN WE WILL
PROBABLY NEED AN SCA FOR A PTN OF OUR WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE DATA TO CHECK OUT THERE BETWEEN EDOUARD AND
44066.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. HOWEVER, QUESTIONS REMAINS ON SEAS. IF
SEAS BUILD WEDNESDAY, THEY COULD LAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...WINDS MAY INCREASE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN. SEAS MAY ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD FRIDAY AS AN
EASTERLY FETCH BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SEAS MAY REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WITHIN THE PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND INCREASING WINDS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
GIVEN THAT SWELLS ARE EITHER LATE IN ARRIVING OR ARE VERIFYING
LOWER THAN WAVE WATCH PROJECTIONS, WE HAVE STARTED OUR RIP CURRENT
OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY AS MODERATE. THE ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK
MAY POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...GIGI/DRAG








000
FXUS61 KPHI 170106
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
906 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. SEEING SOME TYPICAL RADIATIONAL
FALL NIGHT DISCONTINUITIES WITH PRESENT TEMPS VS FORECASTS WHICH
WILL SETTLE AS WE PROGRESS OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS.

TONIGHT...CLEAR WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST OR NORTH WIND OR CALM AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. ATTM NOT EXPECTING FROST. 12Z
GUIDANCE GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM AND MINS ABOUT THE
SAME OR A COUPLE WARMER THAN EARLY YDY...GENERALLY 40S TO AROUND
50 COUNTRYSIDE AND LOWER TO MID 50S URBAN CENTERS. ISOLATED UPPER
30S POSSIBLE NW NJ/NE PA. TEMPS TONIGHT ARE MAYBE 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE PER THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...LOOKS VERY NICE WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD MAINTAINS CONTROL. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
OTHERWISE A LIGHT N-NE WIND DURING THE MORNING TRENDS SOUTHERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/16 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TO START OUT, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET SQUEEZED OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTHWEST. WITH PW`S BELOW AN INCH, NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY; ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT MAY
WASH OUT BEFORE IT GETS HERE. THE GFS AND NAM ARE TRYING TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME QPF AS THE SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE, PW`S ONLY
TOUCHING AN INCH AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, SO
IF ANY PRECIPITATION DID OCCUR, MOST PROBABLY WOULD NOT REACH THE
GROUND. SO FOR NOW WE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TO THE
FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, THEN PUSH OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH PW
VALUES LESS THAN ONE HALF/THREE QUARTERS, WE EXPECT A DRY FORECAST.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT
WITH LIMITED VERTICAL MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY,
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH START TO DISSIPATE THE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE IT REACHES OUR AREA. HOWEVER, WE WILL STILL CARRY A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

TONIGHT...VFR BECOMING CLEAR. LIGHT N-NW WIND. POSSIBLE SPOTTY
COUNTRYSIDE FOG NEAR SUNRISE AND USED THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL. SO
FAR NO FOG IN THE TAFS BUT THAT MAY BE ADDED IN LATER VERSIONS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. LIGHT N-NE WIND UNDER 10 KT BECOMES S OR SW LATE
IN THE DAY EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR, EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY/FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITHIN
A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND DEPARTING COASTAL SNJ WEAK LOW PRESSURE
THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS-SWELLS COULD BUILD 3 OR
4 FT TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FEELING SOME SUBTLE SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD AT THIS TIME...14
SECOND 1 FT.

THE PRIMARY SWELL FROM EDOUARD IS STILL EAST OF 70W AND STRUGGLING
TO EDGE WESTWARD. 44066 - TEXAS TOWER BUOY 75 NM EAST OF THE NJ
COAST HAS HAD A STEADY STATE 2 FT SWELL THE PAST 24 HOURS.

WEDNESDAY...ATTM HAVE NO PLANS FOR AN SCA AND CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
TONIGHT AND 5 FT TOMORROW AND MY CONFIDENCE IN 5 FT SEAS TOMORROW
IS BELOW AVG. SAME PHILOSOPHY AS WRITTEN SINCE LATE YDY...A PROBABLE
HIGH BIAS IN THE GFS WW SWELL GUIDANCE FOR OUR AREA AS EDOUARD
TURNS NNE WELL E OF 70W TAKING ITS ENVELOPE OF HIGH SWELLS WITH
IT. WE`LL KNOW IF WE ARE CORRECT ON THIS THINKING AROUND 01Z/17-
TONIGHT WHEN SWELLS SHOULD BE INCREASING AT 44009 AND 44065
ACCORDING THE GFS WW FCST. THE HURRICANE MODEL IS FCSTG SEAS A
FOOT LESS THAN THE GFS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF A NE WIND 15-20 KT AT THE ENTRANCE TO DE BAY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDING A 2 FT WW TO WHATEVER SWELL IS OUT THERE.
THAT COULD MEAN 5 FOOTERS FOR S SHORT TIME DURING THE MORNING
AROUND 10-17Z. ATTM...NO SCA BUT WILL BE REVIEWED.

IF 6 FOOT SWELLS MAKES IT TO 44066 LATE TONIGHT THEN WE WILL
PROBABLY NEED AN SCA FOR A PTN OF OUR WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE DATA TO CHECK OUT THERE BETWEEN EDOUARD AND
44066.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. HOWEVER, QUESTIONS REMAINS ON SEAS. IF
SEAS BUILD WEDNESDAY, THEY COULD LAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...WINDS MAY INCREASE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN. SEAS MAY ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD FRIDAY AS AN
EASTERLY FETCH BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SEAS MAY REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WITHIN THE PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND INCREASING WINDS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
GIVEN THAT SWELLS ARE EITHER LATE IN ARRIVING OR ARE VERIFYING
LOWER THAN WAVE WATCH PROJECTIONS, WE HAVE STARTED OUR RIP CURRENT
OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY AS MODERATE. THE ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK
MAY POSSIBLY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...GIGI/DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 161928
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
328 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT FROM TODAY WILL MOVE FURTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN. A NICE
AFTN WITH NW GUSTS 15 MPH AND TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...BECOMING CLEAR WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST OR NORTH WIND OR CALM
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. ATTM NOT EXPECTING FROST. 12Z GUIDANCE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM AND MINS ABOUT THE SAME OR A COUPLE
WARMER THAN EARLY YDY...GENERALLY 40S TO AROUND 50 COUNTRYSIDE AND LOWER
TO MID 50S URBAN CENTERS. ISOLATED UPPER 30S POSSIBLE NW NJ/NE PA.
TEMPS TONIGHT ARE MAYBE 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE PER THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/16 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...LOOKS VERY NICE WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD MAINTAINS CONTROL. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
OTHERWISE A LIGHT N-NE WIND DURING THE MORNING TRENDS SOUTHERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/16 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TO START OUT, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET SQUEEZED OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTHWEST. WITH PW`S BELOW AN INCH, NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY; ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT MAY
WASH OUT BEFORE IT GETS HERE. THE GFS AND NAM ARE TRYING TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME QPF AS THE SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE, PW`S ONLY
TOUCHING AN INCH AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, SO
IF ANY PRECIPITATION DID OCCUR, MOST PROBABLY WOULD NOT REACH THE
GROUND. SO FOR NOW WE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TO THE
FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, THEN PUSH OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH PW
VALUES LESS THAN ONE HALF/THREE QUARTERS, WE EXPECT A DRY FORECAST.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT
WITH LIMITED VERTICAL MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY,
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH START TO DISSIPATE THE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE IT REACHES OUR AREA. HOWEVER, WE WILL STILL CARRY A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

THIS AFTERNOON...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT WITH A NW WIND GUST NEAR
15 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR BECOMING CLEAR. LIGHT N-NW WIND. POSSIBLE SPOTTY
COUNTRYSIDE FOG NEAR SUNRISE AND USED THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL. SO
FAR NO FOG IN THE TAFS BUT THAT MAY BE ADDED IN LATER VERSIONS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. LIGHT N-NE WIND UNDER 10 KT BECOMES S OR SW LATE
IN THE DAY EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR, EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY/FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITHIN
A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND DEPARTING COASTAL SNJ WEAK LOW PRESSURE
THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS-SWELLS COULD BUILD 3 OR
4 FT TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FEELING SOME SUBTLE SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD AT THIS TIME...14
SECOND 1 FT.

THE PRIMARY SWELL FROM EDOUARD IS STILL EAST OF 70W AND STRUGGLING
TO EDGE WESTWARD. 44066 - TEXAS TOWER BUOY 75 NM EAST OF THE NJ
COAST HAS HAD A STEADY STATE 2 FT SWELL THE PAST 24 HOURS.

ITS A GOOD DAY TO BE OUT.

WEDNESDAY...ATTM HAVE NO PLANS FOR AN SCA AND CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
TONIGHT AND 5 FT TOMORROW AND MY CONFIDENCE IN 5 FT SEAS TOMORROW
IS BELOW AVG. SAME PHILOSOPHY AS WRITTEN SINCE LATE YDY...A PROBABLE
HIGH BIAS IN THE GFS WW SWELL GUIDANCE FOR OUR AREA AS EDOUARD
TURNS NNE WELL E OF 70W TAKING ITS ENVELOPE OF HIGH SWELLS WITH
IT. WE`LL KNOW IF WE ARE CORRECT ON THIS THINKING AROUND 01Z/17-
TONIGHT WHEN SWELLS SHOULD BE INCREASING AT 44009 AND 44065
ACCORDING THE GFS WW FCST. THE HURRICANE MODEL IS FCSTG SEAS A
FOOT LESS THAN THE GFS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF A NE WIND 15-20 KT AT THE ENTRANCE TO DE BAY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDING A 2 FT WW TO WHATEVER SWELL IS OUT THERE.
THAT COULD MEAN 5 FOOTERS FOR S SHORT TIME DURING THE MORNING
AROUND 10-17Z. ATTM...NO SCA BUT WILL BE REREVIEWED.

IF 6 FOOT SWELLS MAKES IT TO 44066 LATE TONIGHT THEN WE WILL
PROBABLY NEED AN SCA FOR A PTN OF OUR WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE DATA TO CHECK OUT THERE BETWEEN EDOUARD AND
44066.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. HOWEVER, QUESTIONS REMAINS ON SEAS. IF
SEAS BUILD WEDNESDAY, THEY COULD LAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...WINDS MAY INCREASE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN. SEAS MAY ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD FRIDAY AS AN
EASTERLY FETCH BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SEAS MAY REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WITHIN THE PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND INCREASING WINDS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY
DUE TO INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE
ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 161928
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
328 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT FROM TODAY WILL MOVE FURTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN. A NICE
AFTN WITH NW GUSTS 15 MPH AND TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...BECOMING CLEAR WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST OR NORTH WIND OR CALM
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. ATTM NOT EXPECTING FROST. 12Z GUIDANCE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM AND MINS ABOUT THE SAME OR A COUPLE
WARMER THAN EARLY YDY...GENERALLY 40S TO AROUND 50 COUNTRYSIDE AND LOWER
TO MID 50S URBAN CENTERS. ISOLATED UPPER 30S POSSIBLE NW NJ/NE PA.
TEMPS TONIGHT ARE MAYBE 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE PER THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/16 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...LOOKS VERY NICE WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD MAINTAINS CONTROL. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
OTHERWISE A LIGHT N-NE WIND DURING THE MORNING TRENDS SOUTHERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/16 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST TO START OUT, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN
LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET SQUEEZED OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTHWEST. WITH PW`S BELOW AN INCH, NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY; ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT MAY
WASH OUT BEFORE IT GETS HERE. THE GFS AND NAM ARE TRYING TO SQUEEZE
OUT SOME QPF AS THE SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE, PW`S ONLY
TOUCHING AN INCH AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, SO
IF ANY PRECIPITATION DID OCCUR, MOST PROBABLY WOULD NOT REACH THE
GROUND. SO FOR NOW WE INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TO THE
FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, THEN PUSH OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH PW
VALUES LESS THAN ONE HALF/THREE QUARTERS, WE EXPECT A DRY FORECAST.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT, RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS WHICH WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SATURDAY, BUT
WITH LIMITED VERTICAL MOISTURE, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION.

ON SUNDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WE
DO NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL LATER ON SUNDAY,
BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE
LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH START TO DISSIPATE THE PRECIPITATION
BEFORE IT REACHES OUR AREA. HOWEVER, WE WILL STILL CARRY A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

THIS AFTERNOON...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT WITH A NW WIND GUST NEAR
15 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR BECOMING CLEAR. LIGHT N-NW WIND. POSSIBLE SPOTTY
COUNTRYSIDE FOG NEAR SUNRISE AND USED THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL. SO
FAR NO FOG IN THE TAFS BUT THAT MAY BE ADDED IN LATER VERSIONS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. LIGHT N-NE WIND UNDER 10 KT BECOMES S OR SW LATE
IN THE DAY EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR, EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY/FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITHIN
A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR DURING THE DAY. LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND DEPARTING COASTAL SNJ WEAK LOW PRESSURE
THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS-SWELLS COULD BUILD 3 OR
4 FT TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FEELING SOME SUBTLE SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD AT THIS TIME...14
SECOND 1 FT.

THE PRIMARY SWELL FROM EDOUARD IS STILL EAST OF 70W AND STRUGGLING
TO EDGE WESTWARD. 44066 - TEXAS TOWER BUOY 75 NM EAST OF THE NJ
COAST HAS HAD A STEADY STATE 2 FT SWELL THE PAST 24 HOURS.

ITS A GOOD DAY TO BE OUT.

WEDNESDAY...ATTM HAVE NO PLANS FOR AN SCA AND CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
TONIGHT AND 5 FT TOMORROW AND MY CONFIDENCE IN 5 FT SEAS TOMORROW
IS BELOW AVG. SAME PHILOSOPHY AS WRITTEN SINCE LATE YDY...A PROBABLE
HIGH BIAS IN THE GFS WW SWELL GUIDANCE FOR OUR AREA AS EDOUARD
TURNS NNE WELL E OF 70W TAKING ITS ENVELOPE OF HIGH SWELLS WITH
IT. WE`LL KNOW IF WE ARE CORRECT ON THIS THINKING AROUND 01Z/17-
TONIGHT WHEN SWELLS SHOULD BE INCREASING AT 44009 AND 44065
ACCORDING THE GFS WW FCST. THE HURRICANE MODEL IS FCSTG SEAS A
FOOT LESS THAN THE GFS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF A NE WIND 15-20 KT AT THE ENTRANCE TO DE BAY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDING A 2 FT WW TO WHATEVER SWELL IS OUT THERE.
THAT COULD MEAN 5 FOOTERS FOR S SHORT TIME DURING THE MORNING
AROUND 10-17Z. ATTM...NO SCA BUT WILL BE REREVIEWED.

IF 6 FOOT SWELLS MAKES IT TO 44066 LATE TONIGHT THEN WE WILL
PROBABLY NEED AN SCA FOR A PTN OF OUR WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE DATA TO CHECK OUT THERE BETWEEN EDOUARD AND
44066.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. HOWEVER, QUESTIONS REMAINS ON SEAS. IF
SEAS BUILD WEDNESDAY, THEY COULD LAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...WINDS MAY INCREASE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN. SEAS MAY ALSO BEGIN TO BUILD FRIDAY AS AN
EASTERLY FETCH BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY... SEAS MAY REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WITHIN THE PROLONGED EASTERLY FLOW LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS, BUT WINDS MAY GUST NEAR 20 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN AND INCREASING WINDS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY
DUE TO INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE
ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 161902
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
302 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY
AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN. A NICE
AFTN WITH NW GUSTS 15 MPH AND TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...BECOMING CLEAR WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST OR NORTH WIND OR CALM
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. ATTM NOT EXPECTING FROST. 12Z GUIDANCE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM AND MINS ABOUT THE SAME OR A COUPLE
WARMER THAN EARLY YDY...GENERALLY 40S TO AROUND 50 COUNTRYSIDE AND LOWER
TO MID 50S URBAN CENTERS. ISOLATED UPPER 30S POSSIBLE NW NJ/NE PA.
TEMPS TONIGHT ARE MAYBE 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE PER THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/16 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...LOOKS VERY NICE WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD MAINTAINS CONTROL. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
OTHERWISE A LIGHT N-NE WIND DURING THE MORNING TRENDS SOUTHERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/16 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

THIS AFTERNOON...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT WITH A NW WIND GUST NEAR
15 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR BECOMING CLEAR. LIGHT N-NW WIND. POSSIBLE SPOTTY
COUNTRYSIDE FOG NEAR SUNRISE AND USED THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL. SO
FAR NO FOG IN THE TAFS BUT THAT MAY BE ADDED IN LATER VERSIONS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. LIGHT N-NE WIND UNDER 10 KT BECOMES S OR SW LATE
IN THE DAY EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD
BECOME A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND DEPARTING COASTAL SNJ WEAK LOW PRESSURE
THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS-SWELLS COULD BUILD 3 OR
4 FT TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FEELING SOME SUBTLE SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD AT THIS TIME...14
SECOND 1 FT.

THE PRIMARY SWELL FROM EDOUARD IS STILL EAST OF 70W AND STRUGGLING
TO EDGE WESTWARD. 44066 - TEXAS TOWER BUOY 75 NM EAST OF THE NJ
COAST HAS HAD A STEADY STATE 2 FT SWELL THE PAST 24 HOURS.

ITS A GOOD DAY TO BE OUT.

WEDNESDAY...ATTM HAVE NO PLANS FOR AN SCA AND CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
TONIGHT AND 5 FT TOMORROW AND MY CONFIDENCE IN 5 FT SEAS TOMORROW
IS BELOW AVG. SAME PHILOSOPHY AS WRITTEN SINCE LATE YDY...A PROBABLE
HIGH BIAS IN THE GFS WW SWELL GUIDANCE FOR OUR AREA AS EDOUARD
TURNS NNE WELL E OF 70W TAKING ITS ENVELOPE OF HIGH SWELLS WITH
IT. WE`LL KNOW IF WE ARE CORRECT ON THIS THINKING AROUND 01Z/17-
TONIGHT WHEN SWELLS SHOULD BE INCREASING AT 44009 AND 44065
ACCORDING THE GFS WW FCST. THE HURRICANE MODEL IS FCSTG SEAS A
FOOT LESS THAN THE GFS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF A NE WIND 15-20 KT AT THE ENTRANCE TO DE BAY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDING A 2 FT WW TO WHATEVER SWELL IS OUT THERE.
THAT COULD MEAN 5 FOOTERS FOR S SHORT TIME DURING THE MORNING
AROUND 10-17Z. ATTM...NO SCA BUT WILL BE REREVIEWED.

IF 6 FOOT SWELLS MAKES IT TO 44066 LATE TONIGHT THEN WE WILL
PROBABLY NEED AN SCA FOR A PTN OF OUR WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE DATA TO CHECK OUT THERE BETWEEN EDOUARD AND
44066.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY
DUE TO INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE
ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 301
SHORT TERM...DRAG 301
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 301
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 301
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 161902
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
302 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY
AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE
EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN. A NICE
AFTN WITH NW GUSTS 15 MPH AND TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...BECOMING CLEAR WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST OR NORTH WIND OR CALM
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. ATTM NOT EXPECTING FROST. 12Z GUIDANCE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM AND MINS ABOUT THE SAME OR A COUPLE
WARMER THAN EARLY YDY...GENERALLY 40S TO AROUND 50 COUNTRYSIDE AND LOWER
TO MID 50S URBAN CENTERS. ISOLATED UPPER 30S POSSIBLE NW NJ/NE PA.
TEMPS TONIGHT ARE MAYBE 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE PER THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/16 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...LOOKS VERY NICE WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD MAINTAINS CONTROL. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST
OTHERWISE A LIGHT N-NE WIND DURING THE MORNING TRENDS SOUTHERLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE STILL A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/16 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

THIS AFTERNOON...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT WITH A NW WIND GUST NEAR
15 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR BECOMING CLEAR. LIGHT N-NW WIND. POSSIBLE SPOTTY
COUNTRYSIDE FOG NEAR SUNRISE AND USED THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL. SO
FAR NO FOG IN THE TAFS BUT THAT MAY BE ADDED IN LATER VERSIONS.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. LIGHT N-NE WIND UNDER 10 KT BECOMES S OR SW LATE
IN THE DAY EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD
BECOME A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND DEPARTING COASTAL SNJ WEAK LOW PRESSURE
THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS-SWELLS COULD BUILD 3 OR
4 FT TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FEELING SOME SUBTLE SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD AT THIS TIME...14
SECOND 1 FT.

THE PRIMARY SWELL FROM EDOUARD IS STILL EAST OF 70W AND STRUGGLING
TO EDGE WESTWARD. 44066 - TEXAS TOWER BUOY 75 NM EAST OF THE NJ
COAST HAS HAD A STEADY STATE 2 FT SWELL THE PAST 24 HOURS.

ITS A GOOD DAY TO BE OUT.

WEDNESDAY...ATTM HAVE NO PLANS FOR AN SCA AND CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
TONIGHT AND 5 FT TOMORROW AND MY CONFIDENCE IN 5 FT SEAS TOMORROW
IS BELOW AVG. SAME PHILOSOPHY AS WRITTEN SINCE LATE YDY...A PROBABLE
HIGH BIAS IN THE GFS WW SWELL GUIDANCE FOR OUR AREA AS EDOUARD
TURNS NNE WELL E OF 70W TAKING ITS ENVELOPE OF HIGH SWELLS WITH
IT. WE`LL KNOW IF WE ARE CORRECT ON THIS THINKING AROUND 01Z/17-
TONIGHT WHEN SWELLS SHOULD BE INCREASING AT 44009 AND 44065
ACCORDING THE GFS WW FCST. THE HURRICANE MODEL IS FCSTG SEAS A
FOOT LESS THAN THE GFS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF A NE WIND 15-20 KT AT THE ENTRANCE TO DE BAY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDING A 2 FT WW TO WHATEVER SWELL IS OUT THERE.
THAT COULD MEAN 5 FOOTERS FOR S SHORT TIME DURING THE MORNING
AROUND 10-17Z. ATTM...NO SCA BUT WILL BE REREVIEWED.

IF 6 FOOT SWELLS MAKES IT TO 44066 LATE TONIGHT THEN WE WILL
PROBABLY NEED AN SCA FOR A PTN OF OUR WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE DATA TO CHECK OUT THERE BETWEEN EDOUARD AND
44066.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY
DUE TO INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE
ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 301
SHORT TERM...DRAG 301
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 301
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 301
RIP CURRENTS...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 161611
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1211 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. THEN ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM: ESTF WILL HAVE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND CLOUDS.
LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN IS BASICALLY DONE NOW.

A VERY NICE AFTN IS DEVELOPING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS TO 15 MPH.

TONIGHT...CLEAR WITH LIGHT OR CALM WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD. ATTM NOT EXPECTING TO FCST FROST. 12Z GUIDANCE GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM AND MINS AT WORST...ABOUT THE SAME AS
EARLY YDY...GENERALLY 40S COUNTRYSIDE AND LOWER 50S URBAN CENTERS.
ISOLATED UPPER 30S POSSIBLE.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/16 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...LOOKS VERY NICE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MAINTAINS
CONTROL.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/16 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

THIS AFTERNOON...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT WITH A NW WIND GUST NEAR
15 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR CLEAR. LIGHT NW WIND. POSSIBLE SPOTTY COUNTRYSIDE
FOG NEAR SUNRISE. WILL USE THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL TO CHECK FOR FOG
ON THE 12Z BLENDED GRIDDED GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. LIGHT WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE IN THE DAY
EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD
BECOME A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND DEPARTING COASTAL SNJ WEAK LOW PRESSURE
THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS-SWELLS COULD BUILD 3 OR
4 FT TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FEELING SOME SUBTLE SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD AT THIS TIME...14
SECOND 1 FT.

THE PRIMARY SWELL FROM EDOUARD IS STILL EAST OF 70W AND STRUGGLING
TO EDGE WESTWARD. 44066 - TEXAS TOWER BUOY 75 NM EAST OF THE NJ
COAST HAS HAD A STEADY STATE 2 FT SWELL THE PAST 24 HOURS.

ITS A GOOD DAY TO BE OUT.

WEDNESDAY...ATTM HAVE NO PLANS FOR AN SCA AND PROBABLY CAPPING
SWELLS AT 4 FT. HAVE NOT SEEN THE NEW 12Z GFS WW GUIDANCE AS OF
THIS WRITING. SAME PHILOSOPHY AS WRITTEN SINCE LATE YDY...A PROBABLE
HIGH BIAS IN THE GFS WW SWELL GUIDANCE FOR OUR AREA AS EDOUARD TURNS
NNE WELL E OF 70W TAKING ITS ENVELOPE OF HIGH SWELLS WITH IT.
WE`LL KNOW IF WE ARE CORRECT ON THIS THINKING AT AROUND 01Z/17-TONIGHT
WHEN SWELLS SHOULD BE INCREASING AT 44009 ACCORDING THE GFS WW
FCST.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY
DUE TO INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE
ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1211
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1211
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 1211
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 1211
RIP CURRENTS...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 161611
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1211 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. THEN ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM: ESTF WILL HAVE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND CLOUDS.
LOOKS LIKE THE RAIN IS BASICALLY DONE NOW.

A VERY NICE AFTN IS DEVELOPING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS TO 15 MPH.

TONIGHT...CLEAR WITH LIGHT OR CALM WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD. ATTM NOT EXPECTING TO FCST FROST. 12Z GUIDANCE GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO WARM AND MINS AT WORST...ABOUT THE SAME AS
EARLY YDY...GENERALLY 40S COUNTRYSIDE AND LOWER 50S URBAN CENTERS.
ISOLATED UPPER 30S POSSIBLE.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/16 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...LOOKS VERY NICE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MAINTAINS
CONTROL.  AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/16 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

THIS AFTERNOON...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT WITH A NW WIND GUST NEAR
15 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR CLEAR. LIGHT NW WIND. POSSIBLE SPOTTY COUNTRYSIDE
FOG NEAR SUNRISE. WILL USE THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL TO CHECK FOR FOG
ON THE 12Z BLENDED GRIDDED GUIDANCE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR. LIGHT WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE IN THE DAY
EXCEPT SE ALONG THE COASTS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD
BECOME A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND DEPARTING COASTAL SNJ WEAK LOW PRESSURE
THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS-SWELLS COULD BUILD 3 OR
4 FT TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FEELING SOME SUBTLE SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD AT THIS TIME...14
SECOND 1 FT.

THE PRIMARY SWELL FROM EDOUARD IS STILL EAST OF 70W AND STRUGGLING
TO EDGE WESTWARD. 44066 - TEXAS TOWER BUOY 75 NM EAST OF THE NJ
COAST HAS HAD A STEADY STATE 2 FT SWELL THE PAST 24 HOURS.

ITS A GOOD DAY TO BE OUT.

WEDNESDAY...ATTM HAVE NO PLANS FOR AN SCA AND PROBABLY CAPPING
SWELLS AT 4 FT. HAVE NOT SEEN THE NEW 12Z GFS WW GUIDANCE AS OF
THIS WRITING. SAME PHILOSOPHY AS WRITTEN SINCE LATE YDY...A PROBABLE
HIGH BIAS IN THE GFS WW SWELL GUIDANCE FOR OUR AREA AS EDOUARD TURNS
NNE WELL E OF 70W TAKING ITS ENVELOPE OF HIGH SWELLS WITH IT.
WE`LL KNOW IF WE ARE CORRECT ON THIS THINKING AT AROUND 01Z/17-TONIGHT
WHEN SWELLS SHOULD BE INCREASING AT 44009 ACCORDING THE GFS WW
FCST.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY
DUE TO INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE
ENHANCED RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1211
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1211
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 1211
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 1211
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 161347
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. THEN ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF HAD INCREASED SKYCOVER IN THE FCST THIS MORNING
BASICALLY ALONG AND E OF 75W LONGITUDE. WE MAY NEED TO ADD MORE
CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THE HRRR WAS RIGHT AND NEW RAIN IS NOW
REDEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NJ AS OF 930 AM. ITS BECOME A BIT OF A
SHABBY MORNING IN NJ AND EXTREME EAST CENTRAL PA WITH LOTS OF LOW
CLOUDINESS. SPRINKLES MAY LINGER INTO EARLY AFTN COASTAL NJ...OR A
A LINE OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE SEWD THERE BETWEEN 11AM-
1PM.

OTRW EXPECT DRYING IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES.

A COOL NIGHT IS UPCOMING...SIMILAR TO YDY MORNING WHEN KMPO HAD 38
FOR A LOW AND WIDESPREAD COUNTRYSIDE 40S OCCURRED.

THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH FROST
ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT AT THIS POINT, FORECAST TEMPERATURES
ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

THROUGH 16Z...IFR-MVFR CIGS IN LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS MOISTURE
FROM JUST N OF KPHL THRU NJ. OTRW FOR KPHL KILG KRDG AND KABE VFR
SCT-BKN DEVELOPING AOA 3500 FT. LIGHT WIND.

AFTER 16Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER KACY AND KMIV. LIGHT NW WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND DEPARTING COASTAL SNJ WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TODAY. NW WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS-SWELLS COULD BUILD 3 OR 4 FT TONIGHT,
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FEELING SOME SUBTLE SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD AT THIS TIME...14
SECOND 1 FT.

THE PRIMARY SWELL FROM EDOUARD IS STILL EAST OF 70W AND STRUGGLING
TO EDGE WESTWARD. 44066 - TEXAS TOWER BUOY 75 NM EAST OF THE NJ
COAST HAS HAD A STEADY STATE 2 FT SWELL THE PAST 24 HOURS.

OTHER THAN THE RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE NJ COASTS...ITS A
GOOD DAY TO BE OUT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE ENHANCED
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG/DRAG 947A
NEAR TERM...DRAG 947A
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 947A
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 947A
RIP CURRENTS...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 161347
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST WILL MOVE SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. THEN ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF HAD INCREASED SKYCOVER IN THE FCST THIS MORNING
BASICALLY ALONG AND E OF 75W LONGITUDE. WE MAY NEED TO ADD MORE
CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON. THE HRRR WAS RIGHT AND NEW RAIN IS NOW
REDEVELOPING OVER EASTERN NJ AS OF 930 AM. ITS BECOME A BIT OF A
SHABBY MORNING IN NJ AND EXTREME EAST CENTRAL PA WITH LOTS OF LOW
CLOUDINESS. SPRINKLES MAY LINGER INTO EARLY AFTN COASTAL NJ...OR A
A LINE OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE SEWD THERE BETWEEN 11AM-
1PM.

OTRW EXPECT DRYING IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES.

A COOL NIGHT IS UPCOMING...SIMILAR TO YDY MORNING WHEN KMPO HAD 38
FOR A LOW AND WIDESPREAD COUNTRYSIDE 40S OCCURRED.

THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH FROST
ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT AT THIS POINT, FORECAST TEMPERATURES
ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

THROUGH 16Z...IFR-MVFR CIGS IN LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS MOISTURE
FROM JUST N OF KPHL THRU NJ. OTRW FOR KPHL KILG KRDG AND KABE VFR
SCT-BKN DEVELOPING AOA 3500 FT. LIGHT WIND.

AFTER 16Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT EXPECTED EVERYWHERE THOUGH
MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER KACY AND KMIV. LIGHT NW WIND.

TONIGHT...VFR LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND DEPARTING COASTAL SNJ WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TODAY. NW WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS-SWELLS COULD BUILD 3 OR 4 FT TONIGHT,
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FEELING SOME SUBTLE SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD AT THIS TIME...14
SECOND 1 FT.

THE PRIMARY SWELL FROM EDOUARD IS STILL EAST OF 70W AND STRUGGLING
TO EDGE WESTWARD. 44066 - TEXAS TOWER BUOY 75 NM EAST OF THE NJ
COAST HAS HAD A STEADY STATE 2 FT SWELL THE PAST 24 HOURS.

OTHER THAN THE RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE NJ COASTS...ITS A
GOOD DAY TO BE OUT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE ENHANCED
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG/DRAG 947A
NEAR TERM...DRAG 947A
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 947A
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 947A
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 161242
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
842 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
842 AM ESTF UPDATE TO FURTHER DELINEATE MORNING SHOWER RISKS.
BASICALLY PRIMARY SHOWER RISK FROM THIS POINT ON IS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF NJ WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO REDEVELOP SOME
SPRINKLES MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

LOW PRESSURE REFORMING ALONG COASTAL SNJ AT 8AM AS 3 HR PRES FALLS
SHIFT TO THE COASTAL REGION FROM NJ TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE ADJUSTED SKYCOVER TODAY...ADDING MORE TO AT LEAST THE NE HALF
OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO ADD ANOTHER 20 PCT
CLOUDS IN A 930 AM UPDATE TO MAKE IT MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A WHILE IN
SOME AREAS? TSECTIONS LOOK A LITTLE MOIST TODAY.

OTRW EXPECT DRYING IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION.

MORE LATER...

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES.

A COOL NIGHT IS UPCOMING...SIMILAR TO YDY MORNING WHEN KMPO HAD 38
FOR A LOW AND WIDESPREAD COUNTRYSIDE 40S OCCURRED.

THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH FROST
ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT AT THIS POINT, FORECAST TEMPERATURES
ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

THROUGH 14Z...PATCHY MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS CROSSING EASTERN 1/2 NJ.
OTRW VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT. LIGHT WIND.

AFTER 14Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT EXPECTED. WINDS TURNING NW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING 12Z COASTAL SNJ SFC LOW. MAY BE UPDATING TAFS AROUND
13Z FOR MORE CLOUDS DURING MIDDAY/AFTN.

TONIGHT...VFR LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS COULD
BUILD UP TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FEELING SOME SUBTLE SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD AT THIS TIME...14
SECOND 1 FT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE ENHANCED
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 840A
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON 840A
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 840A
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 840A
RIP CURRENTS...840A








000
FXUS61 KPHI 161242
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
842 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
842 AM ESTF UPDATE TO FURTHER DELINEATE MORNING SHOWER RISKS.
BASICALLY PRIMARY SHOWER RISK FROM THIS POINT ON IS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF NJ WHERE MODELS CONTINUE TO TRY TO REDEVELOP SOME
SPRINKLES MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN.

LOW PRESSURE REFORMING ALONG COASTAL SNJ AT 8AM AS 3 HR PRES FALLS
SHIFT TO THE COASTAL REGION FROM NJ TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

HAVE ADJUSTED SKYCOVER TODAY...ADDING MORE TO AT LEAST THE NE HALF
OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MAY NEED TO ADD ANOTHER 20 PCT
CLOUDS IN A 930 AM UPDATE TO MAKE IT MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR A WHILE IN
SOME AREAS? TSECTIONS LOOK A LITTLE MOIST TODAY.

OTRW EXPECT DRYING IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION.

MORE LATER...

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES.

A COOL NIGHT IS UPCOMING...SIMILAR TO YDY MORNING WHEN KMPO HAD 38
FOR A LOW AND WIDESPREAD COUNTRYSIDE 40S OCCURRED.

THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH FROST
ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT AT THIS POINT, FORECAST TEMPERATURES
ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

THROUGH 14Z...PATCHY MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS CROSSING EASTERN 1/2 NJ.
OTRW VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT. LIGHT WIND.

AFTER 14Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT EXPECTED. WINDS TURNING NW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING 12Z COASTAL SNJ SFC LOW. MAY BE UPDATING TAFS AROUND
13Z FOR MORE CLOUDS DURING MIDDAY/AFTN.

TONIGHT...VFR LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS COULD
BUILD UP TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FEELING SOME SUBTLE SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD AT THIS TIME...14
SECOND 1 FT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE ENHANCED
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 840A
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON 840A
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 840A
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 840A
RIP CURRENTS...840A









000
FXUS61 KPHI 161153
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
753 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
739 AM ESTF UPDATE TO UPDATE THE POPS FOR NEAR CATEGORICAL EVENT
MUCH OF NJ BETWEEN NOW AND 930AM. WILL UPDATE AGAIN AT 845 AM FOR
THE BACKEDGE ENDING.

LOW PRESSURE REFORMING OVER NJ AT 7AM WHERE GREATEST PRES FALLS IN
THE NE USA.

MAY NEED TO ADD MORE SKYCOVER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE RESULTANT
MOISTURE DEPOSITION FROM THIS MORNINGS SHOWERS. TSECTIONS LOOK A
LITTLE MOIST TODAY.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE LATER...

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES.

A COOL NIGHT IS UPCOMING...SIMILAR TO YDY MORNING WHEN KMPO HAD 38
FOR A LOW AND WIDESPREAD COUNTRYSIDE 40S OCCURRED.

THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH
FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT AT THIS POINT, HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA UNTIL WE SEE HOW QUICKLY
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY, AND HOW LOW THE DEW POINTS WILL BE
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

THROUGH 14Z...PATCHY MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS CROSSING NJ AND LEAVING
KPHL AREA. OTRW VFR CIGS. LIGHT WIND.

AFTER 14Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT EXPECTED. WINDS TURNING NW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING 11Z SNJ SFC LOW. MAY BE UPDATING TAFS AROUND 13Z FOR MORE
CLOUDS DURING MIDDAY/AFTN.

TONIGHT...VFR LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS COULD
BUILD UP TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
FEELING SOME SUBTLE SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD AT THIS TIME...14 SECOND 1
FT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE ENHANCED
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 753
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON 753
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 753
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 753
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 161153
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
753 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
739 AM ESTF UPDATE TO UPDATE THE POPS FOR NEAR CATEGORICAL EVENT
MUCH OF NJ BETWEEN NOW AND 930AM. WILL UPDATE AGAIN AT 845 AM FOR
THE BACKEDGE ENDING.

LOW PRESSURE REFORMING OVER NJ AT 7AM WHERE GREATEST PRES FALLS IN
THE NE USA.

MAY NEED TO ADD MORE SKYCOVER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE RESULTANT
MOISTURE DEPOSITION FROM THIS MORNINGS SHOWERS. TSECTIONS LOOK A
LITTLE MOIST TODAY.

EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

MORE LATER...

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES.

A COOL NIGHT IS UPCOMING...SIMILAR TO YDY MORNING WHEN KMPO HAD 38
FOR A LOW AND WIDESPREAD COUNTRYSIDE 40S OCCURRED.

THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH
FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT AT THIS POINT, HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA UNTIL WE SEE HOW QUICKLY
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY, AND HOW LOW THE DEW POINTS WILL BE
BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

THROUGH 14Z...PATCHY MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS CROSSING NJ AND LEAVING
KPHL AREA. OTRW VFR CIGS. LIGHT WIND.

AFTER 14Z...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT EXPECTED. WINDS TURNING NW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING 11Z SNJ SFC LOW. MAY BE UPDATING TAFS AROUND 13Z FOR MORE
CLOUDS DURING MIDDAY/AFTN.

TONIGHT...VFR LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS COULD
BUILD UP TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
FEELING SOME SUBTLE SWELL FROM DISTANT EDOUARD AT THIS TIME...14 SECOND 1
FT.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE ENHANCED
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 753
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON 753
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 753
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG 753
RIP CURRENTS...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 160941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
541 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND IT HAS NOT MADE MUCH
PROGRESS EAST OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. DESPITE THIS, MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE FRONT BISECTING OUR REGION BY 12Z. ONE CHANGE, HOWEVER, IS
THAT SOME HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. THIS SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOW THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BAND
ALREADY DECREASING. THUS, HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT MORE IN NORTHERN
NJ FOR THIS MORNING. WITH THE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE RATHER LATE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT, MAY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING THIS MORNING BEFORE MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER, THAT
HIGHS COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES. THAT,
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
SOME OF THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON. TEMPERATURES COULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 40 IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR AND COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE
POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA
UNTIL WE SEE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY, AND HOW LOW
THE DEW POINTS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY FROM KRDG TO KPHL TO
KACY AND POINTS SOUTH. IN ADDITION, ISOLATED SHRA WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION, BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS, AS
EVEN WITH SHOWERS, EXPECT CONTINUED HIGH MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS.
ALSO COVERAGE OF SHRA WILL BE LIMITED. BY 15Z, SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY 18Z, BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. AS A HIGH MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
EXPECT DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES BY 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS COULD
BUILD UP TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE ENHANCED
RIP CURRENT RISK COULD CONNTINUE INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 160941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
541 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND IT HAS NOT MADE MUCH
PROGRESS EAST OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. DESPITE THIS, MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE FRONT BISECTING OUR REGION BY 12Z. ONE CHANGE, HOWEVER, IS
THAT SOME HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. THIS SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOW THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BAND
ALREADY DECREASING. THUS, HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT MORE IN NORTHERN
NJ FOR THIS MORNING. WITH THE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE RATHER LATE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT, MAY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING THIS MORNING BEFORE MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER, THAT
HIGHS COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES. THAT,
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
SOME OF THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON. TEMPERATURES COULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 40 IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR AND COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE
POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA
UNTIL WE SEE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY, AND HOW LOW
THE DEW POINTS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY FROM KRDG TO KPHL TO
KACY AND POINTS SOUTH. IN ADDITION, ISOLATED SHRA WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION, BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS, AS
EVEN WITH SHOWERS, EXPECT CONTINUED HIGH MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS.
ALSO COVERAGE OF SHRA WILL BE LIMITED. BY 15Z, SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY 18Z, BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. AS A HIGH MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
EXPECT DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES BY 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS COULD
BUILD UP TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY PRIMARILY DUE TO
INCREASED LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM HURRICANE EDOUARD. THE ENHANCED
RIP CURRENT RISK COULD CONNTINUE INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 160840
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
440 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND IT HAS NOT MADE MUCH
PROGRESS EAST OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. DESPITE THIS, MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE FRONT BISECTING OUR REGION BY 12Z. ONE CHANGE, HOWEVER, IS
THAT SOME HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. THIS SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOW THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BAND
ALREADY DECREASING. THUS, HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT MORE IN NORTHERN
NJ FOR THIS MORNING. WITH THE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE RATHER LATE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT, MAY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING THIS MORNING BEFORE MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER, THAT
HIGHS COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES. THAT,
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
SOME OF THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON. TEMPERATURES COULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 40 IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR AND COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE
POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA
UNTIL WE SEE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY, AND HOW LOW
THE DEW POINTS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY FROM KRDG TO KPHL TO
KACY AND POINTS SOUTH. IN ADDITION, ISOLATED SHRA WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION, BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS, AS
EVEN WITH SHOWERS, EXPECT CONTINUED HIGH MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS.
ALSO COVERAGE OF SHRA WILL BE LIMITED. BY 15Z, SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY 18Z, BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. AS A HIGH MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
EXPECT DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES BY 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS COULD
BUILD UP TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG








000
FXUS61 KPHI 160840
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
440 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND IT HAS NOT MADE MUCH
PROGRESS EAST OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. DESPITE THIS, MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE FRONT BISECTING OUR REGION BY 12Z. ONE CHANGE, HOWEVER, IS
THAT SOME HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. THIS SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOW THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BAND
ALREADY DECREASING. THUS, HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT MORE IN NORTHERN
NJ FOR THIS MORNING. WITH THE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE RATHER LATE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT, MAY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING THIS MORNING BEFORE MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER, THAT
HIGHS COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES. THAT,
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
SOME OF THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON. TEMPERATURES COULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 40 IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR AND COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE
POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA
UNTIL WE SEE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY, AND HOW LOW
THE DEW POINTS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY FROM KRDG TO KPHL TO
KACY AND POINTS SOUTH. IN ADDITION, ISOLATED SHRA WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION, BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS, AS
EVEN WITH SHOWERS, EXPECT CONTINUED HIGH MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS.
ALSO COVERAGE OF SHRA WILL BE LIMITED. BY 15Z, SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY 18Z, BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. AS A HIGH MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT,
EXPECT DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES BY 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS COULD
BUILD UP TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 160740
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND IT HAS NOT MADE MUCH
PROGRESS EAST OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. DESPITE THIS, MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE FRONT BISECTING OUR REGION BY 12Z. ONE CHANGE, HOWEVER, IS
THAT SOME HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. THIS SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOW THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BAND
ALREADY DECREASING. THUS, HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT MORE IN NORTHERN
NJ FOR THIS MORNING. WITH THE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE RATHER LATE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT, MAY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING THIS MORNING BEFORE MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER, THAT
HIGHS COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES. THAT,
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
SOME OF THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON. TEMPERATURES COULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 40 IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR AND COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE
POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA
UNTIL WE SEE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY, AND HOW LOW
THE DEW POINTS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

ISOLATED SHRA IS POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS, AS EVEN WITH SHOWERS,
EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. ALSO COVERAGE OF SHRA WILL BE VERY
LIMITED EXCEPT FOR A BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, BUT THAT SHOULD
PASS NORTH OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING EVEN LOWER CLOUDS,
AROUND BKN020, AT 12Z FOR KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. THIS APPEARS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT THE LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND 040 OR 050 WILL MOVE
IN FIRST, SOMEWHAT INHIBITING LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY 18Z, BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. AS A HIGH MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT
DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES BY 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.


&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS COULD
BUILD UP TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG








000
FXUS61 KPHI 160740
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THEN
ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND BRING DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION AND IT HAS NOT MADE MUCH
PROGRESS EAST OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. DESPITE THIS, MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE FRONT BISECTING OUR REGION BY 12Z. ONE CHANGE, HOWEVER, IS
THAT SOME HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS
DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO OUR REGION. THIS SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WHICH SHOW THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BAND
ALREADY DECREASING. THUS, HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT MORE IN NORTHERN
NJ FOR THIS MORNING. WITH THE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE RATHER LATE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT, MAY SEE ENOUGH
WARMING THIS MORNING BEFORE MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES OVER, THAT
HIGHS COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE YESTERDAYS HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES. THAT,
COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
SOME OF THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES THIS SEASON. TEMPERATURES COULD
RANGE FROM NEAR 40 IN THE POCONOS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE
URBAN CORRIDOR AND COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS A SMALL THREAT THAT THE
POCONOS AND NW NJ COULD REACH FROST ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT, BUT
AT THIS POINT, HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CRITERIA
UNTIL WE SEE HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY, AND HOW LOW
THE DEW POINTS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A QUIET PD ACRS THE REGION.

WK HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WED. IT WILL QUICKLY BE
DISPLACED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA
WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS CFP IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY. ALL OF THE
MDLS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS DO NOT GENERATE ANY PRECIP,
AND HAVE GONE WITH THE MDL CONSENSUS.

BEHIND THIS CFP A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND
EVENTUALLY NE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
KEEPING IT DRY AND PLEASANT. A MORE NE TO E FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP WITH TIME.

BY SUN NIGHT INTO MON, LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG ACRS ERN CAN AND ITS
ASSOCD CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE REGION DURG
MON. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST SHOT OF PRECIP, IN WHAT IS
AN OTHERWISE DRY FCST.

TEMPS WILL GENLY BE A TAD BELOW NRML THRU THE ERLY PORTION OF THE
PD, WARMING TO NR NRML BY THE END OF THE EXTENDD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

ISOLATED SHRA IS POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE REGION, BUT
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS, AS EVEN WITH SHOWERS,
EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. ALSO COVERAGE OF SHRA WILL BE VERY
LIMITED EXCEPT FOR A BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, BUT THAT SHOULD
PASS NORTH OF ALL OF THE TAF SITES. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO MOVE IN. A FEW MODELS ARE SHOWING EVEN LOWER CLOUDS,
AROUND BKN020, AT 12Z FOR KILG, KMIV, AND KACY. THIS APPEARS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT THE LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND 040 OR 050 WILL MOVE
IN FIRST, SOMEWHAT INHIBITING LOWER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BY 18Z, BRINGING A WIND
SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY. AS A HIGH MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT, EXPECT
DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES BY 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
WED - SAT...VFR. N WIND WILL BECOME MORE NE TO E AND COULD BECOME
A BIT GUSTY THU NIGHT INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ALG THE CST. MDT TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE.


&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT OF
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT,
BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SEAS COULD
BUILD UP TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WED INTO THU BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
WW GUID MAY BE TOO HIGH. HRCN EDOUARD IS FCST TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE MID ATLC CST DURG THIS TIME, BUT REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE (E OF 60 W). PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ON EDOUARD.

FRI-SAT...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS IS ANTICIPATE ONCE AGAIN,
WITH HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENG. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 5 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 160108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
908 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FAST MOVING AREA OF
LOW-PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST DURING MID WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE PROBABLY OCCURS LATE THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND LINGERS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WE HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY BIG CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. A
QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE AND SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE OVERSPREADING THE AREA...AND SCT
SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS NW PA ATTM. MORE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS SLIGHTLY DOWN IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS FROM BEFORE LOOKED OKAY
AND WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH. LIGHT S/SW WINDS WILL SWITCH TO WRLY BY
DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING TROUGH THE AREA AND OFFSHORE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL PULL AWAY DURING THE MORNING AS THE
SHORT WAVE QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MIXED ECMWF 925 MB TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS,
AND MOSGUIDE WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: TROUGH IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FLATTENS AND WARMS NEXT
WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY; NEARLY
NORMAL SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/15 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 12Z/15
GFS MOS THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/15
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50 WITH THE 12Z/15
MEXMOS. ALL THIS WAS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/15 ECMWF TO
SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z
2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED
AGAINST THE 09Z/15 SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND
THEREAFTER THE 12Z/15 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05

THE DAILIES BELOW...

ESSENTIALLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAYBE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT MONDAY. OVERALL THIS LOOKS LIKE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DECENT LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER FOR OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...FAIR AND COOL AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES. LIGHT WIND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT WIND BECOMING
NORTH LATE THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUDINESS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH
A COMBINATION OF GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW AND THE COOL POOL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHEAST FLOW GUSTY AT TIMES 15
TO 20 MPH. MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES?

NEXT WEEKEND...PARTLY CLOUDY. STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW SATURDAY PROBABLY
TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY: A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OR APPROACH WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
FALL BEGINS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN TAFS, SO TEMPO SHOWER GROUPS REMAIN IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME, CENTERED AROUND THE DAYBREAK HOURS.

VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION, PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...VFR WITH INTERMITTENT PATCHY CIGS AOA
3500 FT AT TIMES. LIGHT WIND MAY BECOME GUSTY NORTHERLY 15 KT LATE
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...THEN GUSTY NORTHEAST 20 KT
FRIDAY AND WIND TURNING EASTERLY SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20
KNOTS, BUT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NO MARINE HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
OR POSSIBLY INCREASING NORTHERLY WIND LATE THURSDAY...SUBSEQUENT
TO THE NEXT CFP.

CONFIDENCE ON ANY SCA FOR WEDNESDAY IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE DESPITE
THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE. SUSPICION IS THAT THIS GUIDANCE WILL BE 1-2
FEET TOO HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY...AND PREFER A CLOSER FIT TO THE LOWER
HURRICANE WW GUIDANCE. EDOUARD`S NORTHWARD TRACK WELL TO THE EAST OF
70W IS THE REASONING FOR HESITATING ON BUYING INTO THE GFS WW3
GUIDANCE. RECENT HISTORY WITH CRISTOBALS HIGH SWELL BIAS FOR OUR
PORTION OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINGERS IN THE MEMORY BANK.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS SHOULD BE REALIZED,
MOST LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR THE FORMATION
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NJ COAST...IN RESPONSE
TO THE ARRIVAL OF 12 TO 15 SECOND PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD. EDOUARDS
NORTHWARD PASSAGE FAR TO THE EAST OF 70W PROBABLY WILL MEAN THE GFS WW
SWELL GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH AND SO HAVE FAVORED THE LESSER HURRICANE
MODEL GUIDANCE (OSBH07). AT THIS TIME THE CONFIDENCE FOR MODERATE
RISK POTENTIAL FOR WED/THU IS CONSIDERED BELOW AVERAGE AND WE`LL
NEED A 3 FOOT ESE SWELL OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS TO RAISE THAT RISK
POTENTIAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...OHARA/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON/OHARA
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG








000
FXUS61 KPHI 160108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
908 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A FAST MOVING AREA OF
LOW-PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST DURING MID WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE PROBABLY OCCURS LATE THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND LINGERS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WE HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY BIG CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST. A
QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE AND SFC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE OVERSPREADING THE AREA...AND SCT
SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING ACROSS NW PA ATTM. MORE SHOWERS WILL MOVE
ACROSS MOSTLY THE NRN THIRD OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS SLIGHTLY DOWN IN MOST AREAS. TEMPS FROM BEFORE LOOKED OKAY
AND WERE NOT CHANGED MUCH. LIGHT S/SW WINDS WILL SWITCH TO WRLY BY
DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING TROUGH THE AREA AND OFFSHORE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL PULL AWAY DURING THE MORNING AS THE
SHORT WAVE QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MIXED ECMWF 925 MB TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS,
AND MOSGUIDE WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: TROUGH IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FLATTENS AND WARMS NEXT
WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY; NEARLY
NORMAL SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/15 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 12Z/15
GFS MOS THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/15
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50 WITH THE 12Z/15
MEXMOS. ALL THIS WAS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/15 ECMWF TO
SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z
2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED
AGAINST THE 09Z/15 SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND
THEREAFTER THE 12Z/15 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05

THE DAILIES BELOW...

ESSENTIALLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAYBE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT MONDAY. OVERALL THIS LOOKS LIKE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DECENT LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER FOR OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...FAIR AND COOL AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES. LIGHT WIND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT WIND BECOMING
NORTH LATE THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUDINESS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH
A COMBINATION OF GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW AND THE COOL POOL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHEAST FLOW GUSTY AT TIMES 15
TO 20 MPH. MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES?

NEXT WEEKEND...PARTLY CLOUDY. STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW SATURDAY PROBABLY
TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY: A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OR APPROACH WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
FALL BEGINS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN TAFS, SO TEMPO SHOWER GROUPS REMAIN IN
THE TAFS AT THIS TIME, CENTERED AROUND THE DAYBREAK HOURS.

VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS. ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION, PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...VFR WITH INTERMITTENT PATCHY CIGS AOA
3500 FT AT TIMES. LIGHT WIND MAY BECOME GUSTY NORTHERLY 15 KT LATE
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...THEN GUSTY NORTHEAST 20 KT
FRIDAY AND WIND TURNING EASTERLY SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20
KNOTS, BUT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NO MARINE HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
OR POSSIBLY INCREASING NORTHERLY WIND LATE THURSDAY...SUBSEQUENT
TO THE NEXT CFP.

CONFIDENCE ON ANY SCA FOR WEDNESDAY IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE DESPITE
THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE. SUSPICION IS THAT THIS GUIDANCE WILL BE 1-2
FEET TOO HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY...AND PREFER A CLOSER FIT TO THE LOWER
HURRICANE WW GUIDANCE. EDOUARD`S NORTHWARD TRACK WELL TO THE EAST OF
70W IS THE REASONING FOR HESITATING ON BUYING INTO THE GFS WW3
GUIDANCE. RECENT HISTORY WITH CRISTOBALS HIGH SWELL BIAS FOR OUR
PORTION OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINGERS IN THE MEMORY BANK.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS SHOULD BE REALIZED,
MOST LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR THE FORMATION
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NJ COAST...IN RESPONSE
TO THE ARRIVAL OF 12 TO 15 SECOND PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD. EDOUARDS
NORTHWARD PASSAGE FAR TO THE EAST OF 70W PROBABLY WILL MEAN THE GFS WW
SWELL GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH AND SO HAVE FAVORED THE LESSER HURRICANE
MODEL GUIDANCE (OSBH07). AT THIS TIME THE CONFIDENCE FOR MODERATE
RISK POTENTIAL FOR WED/THU IS CONSIDERED BELOW AVERAGE AND WE`LL
NEED A 3 FOOT ESE SWELL OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS TO RAISE THAT RISK
POTENTIAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...OHARA/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON/OHARA
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 151946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT. A FAST MOVING AREA
OF LOW-PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST DURING MID WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE PROBABLY OCCURS LATE THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND LINGERS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK,
BEFORE PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. PRETTY MUCH ALL
GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST PROBABILITIES AND MOST QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF/THIRD OF THE AREA WHERE THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SHORT
WAVE/VORT MAX ALOFT PASSES. SO WE WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS UP NORTH,
AND CHANCES SOUTH. THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANY INSTABILITY, SO WE
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH BRINGS
EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING TROUGH THE AREA AND OFFSHORE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL PULL AWAY DURING THE MORNING AS THE
SHORT WAVE QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MIXED ECMWF 925 MB TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS,
AND MOSGUIDE WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: TROUGH IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FLATTENS AND WARMS NEXT
WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY; NEARLY
NORMAL SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/15 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 12Z/15
GFS MOS THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/15
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50 WITH THE 12Z/15
MEXMOS. ALL THIS WAS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/15 ECMWF TO
SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z
2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED
AGAINST THE 09Z/15 SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND
THEREAFTER THE 12Z/15 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05

THE DAILIES BELOW...

ESSENTIALLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAYBE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT MONDAY. OVERALL THIS LOOKS LIKE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DECENT LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER FOR OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...FAIR AND COOL AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES. LIGHT WIND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT WIND BECOMING
NORTH LATE THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUDINESS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH
A COMBINATION OF GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW AND THE COOL POOL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHEAST FLOW GUSTY AT TIMES 15
TO 20 MPH. MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES?

NEXT WEEKEND...PARTLY CLOUDY. STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW SATURDAY PROBABLY
TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY: A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OR APPROACH WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
FALL BEGINS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN TAFS, SO A SHOWER GROUP REMAINS IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME, CENTERED AROUND THE DAYBREAK HOURS.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY WE MAY GET CLOSE TO 2,000-3,000 FOOT CIGS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHOWERS, BUT HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN 5
KNOTS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION, PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...VFR WITH INTERMITTENT PATCHY CIGS AOA
3500 FT AT TIMES. LIGHT WIND MAY BECOME GUSTY NORTHERLY 15 KT LATE
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...THEN GUSTY NORTHEAST 20 KT
FRIDAY AND WIND TURNING EASTERLY SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20
KNOTS, BUT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NO MARINE HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
OR POSSIBLY INCREASING NORTHERLY WIND LATE THURSDAY...SUBSEQUENT
TO THE NEXT CFP.

CONFIDENCE ON ANY SCA FOR WEDNESDAY IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE DESPITE
THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE. SUSPICION IS THAT THIS GUIDANCE WILL BE 1-2
FEET TOO HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY...AND PREFER A CLOSER FIT TO THE LOWER
HURRICANE WW GUIDANCE. EDOUARDS NORTHWARD TRACK WELL TO THE EAST OF
70W IS THE REASONING FOR HESITATING ON BUYING INTO THE GFS WW3
GUIDANCE. RECENT HISTORY WITH CRISTOBALS HIGH SWELL BIAS FOR OUR
PORTION OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINGERS IN THE MEMORY BANK.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS SHOULD BE REALIZED,
MOST LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR THE FORMATION
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NJ COAST...IN RESPONSE
TO THE ARRIVAL OF 12 TO 15 SECOND PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD. EDOUARDS
NORTHWARD PASSAGE FAR TO THE EAST OF 70W PROBABLY WILL MEAN THE GFS WW
SWELL GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH AND SO HAVE FAVORED THE LESSER HURRICANE
MODEL GUIDANCE (OSBH07). AT THIS TIME THE CONFIDENCE FOR MODERATE
RISK POTENTIAL FOR WED/THU IS CONSIDERED BELOW AVERAGE AND WE`LL
NEED A 3 FOOT ESE SWELL OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS TO RAISE THAT RISK
POTENTIAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/FRANCK 345
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON 345
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON 345
LONG TERM...DRAG 345
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 345
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 345
RIP CURRENTS...345







000
FXUS61 KPHI 151946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT. A FAST MOVING AREA
OF LOW-PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST DURING MID WEEK. ANOTHER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE PROBABLY OCCURS LATE THURSDAY. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND LINGERS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST MAY REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, WHICH WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS A FEW HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK,
BEFORE PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING. PRETTY MUCH ALL
GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST PROBABILITIES AND MOST QPF ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF/THIRD OF THE AREA WHERE THE STRONGEST PART OF THE SHORT
WAVE/VORT MAX ALOFT PASSES. SO WE WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS UP NORTH,
AND CHANCES SOUTH. THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ANY INSTABILITY, SO WE
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH BRINGS
EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING TROUGH THE AREA AND OFFSHORE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. ANY REMAINING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL PULL AWAY DURING THE MORNING AS THE
SHORT WAVE QUICKLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRY
FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MIXED ECMWF 925 MB TEMPS, MAV/MET MOS,
AND MOSGUIDE WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: TROUGH IN EASTERN NORTH AMERICA FLATTENS AND WARMS NEXT
WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING SEWD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY; NEARLY
NORMAL SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NEXT SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/15 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 12Z/15
GFS MOS THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/15
WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50 WITH THE 12Z/15
MEXMOS. ALL THIS WAS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/15 ECMWF TO
SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z
2 METER TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED
AGAINST THE 09Z/15 SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND
THEREAFTER THE 12Z/15 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05

THE DAILIES BELOW...

ESSENTIALLY DRY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MAYBE THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEXT MONDAY. OVERALL THIS LOOKS LIKE AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DECENT LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL WEATHER FOR OUR AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...FAIR AND COOL AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES. LIGHT WIND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT WIND BECOMING
NORTH LATE THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUDINESS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH
A COMBINATION OF GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW AND THE COOL POOL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHEAST FLOW GUSTY AT TIMES 15
TO 20 MPH. MAYBE SOME SPRINKLES?

NEXT WEEKEND...PARTLY CLOUDY. STILL AN EASTERLY FLOW SATURDAY PROBABLY
TURNING LIGHT SOUTHERLY SUNDAY.

NEXT MONDAY: A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OR APPROACH WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS.
FALL BEGINS AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS

WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN TAFS, SO A SHOWER GROUP REMAINS IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME, CENTERED AROUND THE DAYBREAK HOURS.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY WE MAY GET CLOSE TO 2,000-3,000 FOOT CIGS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHOWERS, BUT HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME.

VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN 5
KNOTS. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION, PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...VFR WITH INTERMITTENT PATCHY CIGS AOA
3500 FT AT TIMES. LIGHT WIND MAY BECOME GUSTY NORTHERLY 15 KT LATE
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...THEN GUSTY NORTHEAST 20 KT
FRIDAY AND WIND TURNING EASTERLY SATURDAY WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO GUST UP TO 20
KNOTS, BUT REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WIND AND SEAS AOB 3 FT. NO MARINE HEADLINES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EITHER FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
OR POSSIBLY INCREASING NORTHERLY WIND LATE THURSDAY...SUBSEQUENT
TO THE NEXT CFP.

CONFIDENCE ON ANY SCA FOR WEDNESDAY IS WELL BELOW AVERAGE DESPITE
THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE. SUSPICION IS THAT THIS GUIDANCE WILL BE 1-2
FEET TOO HIGH FOR WEDNESDAY...AND PREFER A CLOSER FIT TO THE LOWER
HURRICANE WW GUIDANCE. EDOUARDS NORTHWARD TRACK WELL TO THE EAST OF
70W IS THE REASONING FOR HESITATING ON BUYING INTO THE GFS WW3
GUIDANCE. RECENT HISTORY WITH CRISTOBALS HIGH SWELL BIAS FOR OUR
PORTION OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LINGERS IN THE MEMORY BANK.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...STRONGER ONSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS SHOULD BE REALIZED,
MOST LIKELY FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: THERE MAY BE AN ENHANCED RISK FOR THE FORMATION
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NJ COAST...IN RESPONSE
TO THE ARRIVAL OF 12 TO 15 SECOND PERIOD SWELLS FROM EDOUARD. EDOUARDS
NORTHWARD PASSAGE FAR TO THE EAST OF 70W PROBABLY WILL MEAN THE GFS WW
SWELL GUIDANCE IS TOO HIGH AND SO HAVE FAVORED THE LESSER HURRICANE
MODEL GUIDANCE (OSBH07). AT THIS TIME THE CONFIDENCE FOR MODERATE
RISK POTENTIAL FOR WED/THU IS CONSIDERED BELOW AVERAGE AND WE`LL
NEED A 3 FOOT ESE SWELL OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS TO RAISE THAT RISK
POTENTIAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/FRANCK 345
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON 345
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON 345
LONG TERM...DRAG 345
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 345
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 345
RIP CURRENTS...345








000
FXUS61 KPHI 151512
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1112 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY
THIS EVENING, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
WILL THEN BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. ONLY A FEW
HOURLY GRID ADJUSTMENTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH
OFFSHORE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AS A
RESULT, ANOTHER DRY AND PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE, WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS.

HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, ASSOCD WITH LOW PRES IN ERN CANADA
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO E LATE IN THE PD.  RAIN AMTS WILL GENLY BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, A QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE PASSING OVER OUR REGION EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY, AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING MUCH OF THIS SCATTERED PRECIP TO BE
ENDING SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE QUICK DOWNWARD
TREND IN POPS TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR A TIME FROM WEST TO EAST. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING, IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY
BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL
SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY, OUR REGION MAY EXPERIENCE MORE OF A
PRONOUNCED EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW WITH THE ASSOCIATED INCREASING
CLOUDINESS.

BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH AROUND THE MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DURING
SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING BOUNDARY, SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A
SOMEWHAT WARMER DAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE MID-SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES AND
A SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS WHEN EXACTLY THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, AS THERE ARE THE USUAL TIMING
AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AT THIS EXTENDED
TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW, WE KEPT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
INTRODUCING ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEARING OUR
AREA. ASIDE FROM SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES OVERALL FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY`S TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILDER, WITH
DAYTIME READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S FOR THE POCONOS TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD.

HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE SLOWLY
OFFSHORE.  A WK CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF SHOWERS LATE, WITH
THE BEST CHCS OVER NRN AREAS.  OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT.  IT
APPEARS THAT VFR CONDS MAY PREVAIL DURG THE PD OF SHOWERS, BUT SOME
MVFR IS PSBL.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PDS
WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND SLOWLY MOVG OVER THE CSTL WATERS.
SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS ON OUR AREA WATERS
LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

FRIDAY...STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO FRIDAY,
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS MAY BE REALIZED, MOST LIKELY
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 151512
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1112 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY
THIS EVENING, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
WILL THEN BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. ONLY A FEW
HOURLY GRID ADJUSTMENTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH
OFFSHORE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. AS A
RESULT, ANOTHER DRY AND PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE, WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS.

HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, ASSOCD WITH LOW PRES IN ERN CANADA
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO E LATE IN THE PD.  RAIN AMTS WILL GENLY BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, A QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE PASSING OVER OUR REGION EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY, AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING MUCH OF THIS SCATTERED PRECIP TO BE
ENDING SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE QUICK DOWNWARD
TREND IN POPS TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR A TIME FROM WEST TO EAST. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING, IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY
BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL
SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY, OUR REGION MAY EXPERIENCE MORE OF A
PRONOUNCED EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW WITH THE ASSOCIATED INCREASING
CLOUDINESS.

BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH AROUND THE MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DURING
SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING BOUNDARY, SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A
SOMEWHAT WARMER DAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE MID-SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES AND
A SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS WHEN EXACTLY THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, AS THERE ARE THE USUAL TIMING
AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AT THIS EXTENDED
TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW, WE KEPT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
INTRODUCING ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEARING OUR
AREA. ASIDE FROM SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES OVERALL FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY`S TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILDER, WITH
DAYTIME READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S FOR THE POCONOS TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD.

HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE SLOWLY
OFFSHORE.  A WK CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF SHOWERS LATE, WITH
THE BEST CHCS OVER NRN AREAS.  OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT.  IT
APPEARS THAT VFR CONDS MAY PREVAIL DURG THE PD OF SHOWERS, BUT SOME
MVFR IS PSBL.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PDS
WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND SLOWLY MOVG OVER THE CSTL WATERS.
SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS ON OUR AREA WATERS
LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

FRIDAY...STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO FRIDAY,
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS MAY BE REALIZED, MOST LIKELY
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 150745
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY
THIS EVENING, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
WILL THEN BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH
OFFSHORE.  AS A RESULT, ANOTHER DRY AND PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE,
WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, ASSOCD WITH LOW PRES IN ERN CANADA
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO E LATE IN THE PD.  RAIN AMTS WILL GENLY BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, A QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE PASSING OVER OUR REGION EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY, AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING MUCH OF THIS SCATTERED PRECIP TO BE
ENDING SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE QUICK DOWNWARD
TREND IN POPS TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR A TIME FROM WEST TO EAST. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING, IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY
BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL
SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY, OUR REGION MAY EXPERIENCE MORE OF A
PRONOUNCED EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW WITH THE ASSOCIATED INCREASING
CLOUDINESS.

BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH AROUND THE MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DURING
SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING BOUNDARY, SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A
SOMEWHAT WARMER DAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE MID-SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES AND
A SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS WHEN EXACTLY THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, AS THERE ARE THE USUAL TIMING
AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AT THIS EXTENDED
TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW, WE KEPT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
INTRODUCING ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEARING OUR
AREA. ASIDE FROM SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES OVERALL FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY`S TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILDER, WITH
DAYTIME READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S FOR THE POCONOS TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD...AFTER SOME LCL GROUND FOG
IN A FEW LOCATIONS ERLY THIS AM WHICH COULD YIELD MVFR.

HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE SLOWLY
OFFSHORE.  A WK CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF SHOWERS LATE, WITH
THE BEST CHCS OVER NRN AREAS.  OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT.  IT
APPEARS THAT VFR CONDS MAY PREVAIL DURG THE PD OF SHOWERS, BUT SOME
MVFR IS PSBL.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PDS
WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND SLOWLY MOVG OVER THE CSTL WATERS.
SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS ON OUR AREA WATERS
LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

FRIDAY...STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO FRIDAY,
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS MAY BE REALIZED, MOST LIKELY
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 150745
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY
THIS EVENING, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
WILL THEN BUILD EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY, ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH
OFFSHORE.  AS A RESULT, ANOTHER DRY AND PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE,
WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST.  HIGH TEMPS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE LOW 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, ASSOCD WITH LOW PRES IN ERN CANADA
CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND BRING A CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS
FROM WEST TO E LATE IN THE PD.  RAIN AMTS WILL GENLY BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM, A QUICK MOVING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL BE PASSING OVER OUR REGION EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY, AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING MUCH OF THIS SCATTERED PRECIP TO BE
ENDING SHORTLY AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. WE HAVE KEPT THE QUICK DOWNWARD
TREND IN POPS TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR A TIME FROM WEST TO EAST. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING, IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION.

FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, OUR REGION WILL MOSTLY
BE INFLUENCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A POSSIBLE WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY. FOLLOWING THIS DRY COLD FRONT, MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL
SPREAD DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY MOVING OFFSHORE DURING SATURDAY. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE SATURDAY, OUR REGION MAY EXPERIENCE MORE OF A
PRONOUNCED EASTERLY, ONSHORE FLOW WITH THE ASSOCIATED INCREASING
CLOUDINESS.

BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH AROUND THE MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST DURING
SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING BOUNDARY, SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A
SOMEWHAT WARMER DAY WITH NEAR AVERAGE MID-SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES AND
A SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHAT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IS WHEN EXACTLY THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, AS THERE ARE THE USUAL TIMING
AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AT THIS EXTENDED
TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW, WE KEPT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY,
INTRODUCING ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO OUR FAR NORTHWEST
ZONES GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEARING OUR
AREA. ASIDE FROM SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES OVERALL FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE 60S IN THE POCONOS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OF
NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ TO THE LOWER/MID 70S ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY`S TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILDER, WITH
DAYTIME READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S FOR THE POCONOS TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE TAF PD...AFTER SOME LCL GROUND FOG
IN A FEW LOCATIONS ERLY THIS AM WHICH COULD YIELD MVFR.

HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND MOVE SLOWLY
OFFSHORE.  A WK CDFNT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND CROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE CHC OF SHOWERS LATE, WITH
THE BEST CHCS OVER NRN AREAS.  OVERALL QPF WILL BE LIGHT.  IT
APPEARS THAT VFR CONDS MAY PREVAIL DURG THE PD OF SHOWERS, BUT SOME
MVFR IS PSBL.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PDS
WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND SLOWLY MOVG OVER THE CSTL WATERS.
SEAS WILL GENLY BE IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...WHILE A QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WINDS AND SEAS ON OUR AREA WATERS
LOOK TO REMAIN AT SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WINDS/GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FEET, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR OUTER COASTAL WATERS.

FRIDAY...STRONGER NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO FRIDAY,
AND SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS MAY BE REALIZED, MOST LIKELY
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WINDS GUSTS AROUND 25
KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG








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