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000
FXUS61 KPHI 210809
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
409 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. REINFORCING
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE AREA PASSING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE. THERE REMAINS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE AS
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE SHOWERS MAY
LINGER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA,
BUT SHOULD END BY MID-MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
THROUGH THE DAY, AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY. WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY. SO WE
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR HIGHS TODAY, WHICH BRINGS EVERYONE PRETTY
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE
DIMINISHED BY SUNSET AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WE DO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL
BE DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CREATE ANY SHOWERS, SO WE KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS,
WHICH BRINGS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE AN ALL TOO FAMILIAR PATTERN OF CLOSED
LOWS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORMAL TO COOLER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILING. THE GFS AND WRF 500MB
INITIALIZATION LOOKED GOOD. THEY BOTH WERE INTERMITTENTLY TOO COLD
AT 850MB AND 925MB AT UPSTREAM SITES.

ON WEDNESDAY, A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO MOVE
THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS HAS DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (QVEC
CONVERGENCE, EXIT REGION OF THE 250MB JET) AS WELL AS PREDICTED
LOW LEVEL THETA E RIDGING. COMING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE
CURRENT SYSTEM THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH AIR MASS RECOVERY FOR
HEAVIER PCPN. BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE INVERTED V
LOOK AND THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY SHOWERS OR TSTMS AS PCPN MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE FAIRLY BULLISH WITH WIND
GUSTS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH. GIVEN DECENT MODELING
CONSENSUS ABOUT SHOWERS, WE UPPED POPS TO LIKELY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES AS TO WHETHER OR NOT A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING THUNDER WILL BE SUFFICIENT. WE ADDED LOW CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA
WHERE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HAVE MORE TIME TO GENERATE
INSTABILITY. ODDLY A FASTER CFP DID NOT TRANSFER INTO LOWER GFS
MOS MAX TEMPS AND WE PREFER THEIR HIGHER NUMBER BASED ON FCST
925MB TEMPS.

UNLIKE NOW WHERE PCPN IS LINGERING AND LINGERING AND LINGERING,
SHOWERS/TSTMS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DECREASE
RAPIDLY WITH SUNSET. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS FAR NORTHWEST WHERE A
SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE 500MB TROF COULD KEEP PCPN
CHANCES GOING INTO THE NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLY SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

BETWEEN THE CHANNELIZED VORT MAX AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITHIN REACH,
SELF DESTRUCT SUNSHINE SHOULD BE OCCURRING ON THURSDAY. ONCE
AGAIN GFS MOS AGREES MORE WITH THE NAM`S THERMAL PROFILES THAN ITS
COLDER OWN. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM CONTINUITY, A COOLER STEP DOWN
OF MAX TEMPS.

WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, THERE
SHOULD BE TOO MUCH OF A GRADIENT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACES WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON HAS MADE STRIDES THE LAST WEEK OR SO. SUB FREEZING
MINS WERE KEPT FAR NORTH.

ANOTHER BREEZY BUT DRY DAY FRIDAY. POSSIBLY LESS SELF DESTRUCT
SUNSHINE THAN THURSDAY AS PREDICTED MOISTURE IS LESS. MAX TEMPS
THOUGH ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, COOLER THAN NORMAL.
FRIDAY NIGHT HAS A GREATER CHANCE TO BE A FROSTY ONE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE COMES CLOSER TO OUR CWA.

ON SATURDAY (THIS SOUNDS LIKE A WINTER SCENARIO), A SOUTHERN SLIDER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO PASS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. AS
LONG AS THE ANTECEDENT UPPER CLOSED/SFC LOW REMAIN LINGERING OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, THIS NEW LOW MAY NOT HAVE THE ABILITY TO
TURN THE CORNER AND AFFECT US. THE LATEST ECMWF BACKED OFF ON PCPN
EXTENT AND WE KEPT THE LOW CHANCE FAR SOUTH BECAUSE OF ITS CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE EXITING LOW.

THEN NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE AIR MASS SHOULD
RECOVER SLIGHTLY AS THE MARITIME SYSTEM`S COLD AIR SUPPLY BECOMES
STALER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE. THERE REMAINS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN, MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING. FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED AT RDG. AS THE SHOWERS
END AND WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE. ONCE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN, THEY
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY AFTER
SUNRISE AND WE BEING TO MIX STRONG WINDS FROM ALOFT. WIND GUSTS OF
25-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THE GUSTS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS SHOULD EXCEED 30 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY IN PROXIMITY TO
ANY SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SOME GUSTY DAYTIME NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...LOWEST CONFIDENCE
SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AS SHOWERS MIGHT OCCUR THERE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE OCEAN AS WIND GUSTS OF 25
KNOTS SHOULD INCREASE TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ON THE LOWER DELAWARE
BAY AND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY INTO THE NORTHERN DELAWARE BAY
AS WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE BAY. ALL OF THE
ADVISORIES END AT 6 PM TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY
ON THE OCEAN MAY NEED AN EXTENSION IN TIME FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING IF SEAS TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT PRECEDING THE
NEXT COLD FRONT COULD BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
BACK TO ALL OF THE AREA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE OUTLOOKED AS A NORTHWEST GRADIENT
WIND WILL PERSIST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE OUTLOOKED. THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT WEAKEN SLIGHTLY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATER CONFIDENCE ABOUT SUB SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 210809
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
409 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. REINFORCING
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE AREA PASSING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE. THERE REMAINS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE AS
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE SHOWERS MAY
LINGER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA,
BUT SHOULD END BY MID-MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
THROUGH THE DAY, AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY. WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY. SO WE
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR HIGHS TODAY, WHICH BRINGS EVERYONE PRETTY
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE
DIMINISHED BY SUNSET AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WE DO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL
BE DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CREATE ANY SHOWERS, SO WE KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS,
WHICH BRINGS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE AN ALL TOO FAMILIAR PATTERN OF CLOSED
LOWS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORMAL TO COOLER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILING. THE GFS AND WRF 500MB
INITIALIZATION LOOKED GOOD. THEY BOTH WERE INTERMITTENTLY TOO COLD
AT 850MB AND 925MB AT UPSTREAM SITES.

ON WEDNESDAY, A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO MOVE
THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS HAS DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (QVEC
CONVERGENCE, EXIT REGION OF THE 250MB JET) AS WELL AS PREDICTED
LOW LEVEL THETA E RIDGING. COMING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE
CURRENT SYSTEM THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH AIR MASS RECOVERY FOR
HEAVIER PCPN. BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE INVERTED V
LOOK AND THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY SHOWERS OR TSTMS AS PCPN MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE FAIRLY BULLISH WITH WIND
GUSTS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH. GIVEN DECENT MODELING
CONSENSUS ABOUT SHOWERS, WE UPPED POPS TO LIKELY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES AS TO WHETHER OR NOT A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING THUNDER WILL BE SUFFICIENT. WE ADDED LOW CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA
WHERE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HAVE MORE TIME TO GENERATE
INSTABILITY. ODDLY A FASTER CFP DID NOT TRANSFER INTO LOWER GFS
MOS MAX TEMPS AND WE PREFER THEIR HIGHER NUMBER BASED ON FCST
925MB TEMPS.

UNLIKE NOW WHERE PCPN IS LINGERING AND LINGERING AND LINGERING,
SHOWERS/TSTMS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DECREASE
RAPIDLY WITH SUNSET. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS FAR NORTHWEST WHERE A
SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE 500MB TROF COULD KEEP PCPN
CHANCES GOING INTO THE NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLY SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

BETWEEN THE CHANNELIZED VORT MAX AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITHIN REACH,
SELF DESTRUCT SUNSHINE SHOULD BE OCCURRING ON THURSDAY. ONCE
AGAIN GFS MOS AGREES MORE WITH THE NAM`S THERMAL PROFILES THAN ITS
COLDER OWN. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM CONTINUITY, A COOLER STEP DOWN
OF MAX TEMPS.

WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, THERE
SHOULD BE TOO MUCH OF A GRADIENT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACES WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON HAS MADE STRIDES THE LAST WEEK OR SO. SUB FREEZING
MINS WERE KEPT FAR NORTH.

ANOTHER BREEZY BUT DRY DAY FRIDAY. POSSIBLY LESS SELF DESTRUCT
SUNSHINE THAN THURSDAY AS PREDICTED MOISTURE IS LESS. MAX TEMPS
THOUGH ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, COOLER THAN NORMAL.
FRIDAY NIGHT HAS A GREATER CHANCE TO BE A FROSTY ONE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE COMES CLOSER TO OUR CWA.

ON SATURDAY (THIS SOUNDS LIKE A WINTER SCENARIO), A SOUTHERN SLIDER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO PASS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. AS
LONG AS THE ANTECEDENT UPPER CLOSED/SFC LOW REMAIN LINGERING OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, THIS NEW LOW MAY NOT HAVE THE ABILITY TO
TURN THE CORNER AND AFFECT US. THE LATEST ECMWF BACKED OFF ON PCPN
EXTENT AND WE KEPT THE LOW CHANCE FAR SOUTH BECAUSE OF ITS CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE EXITING LOW.

THEN NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE AIR MASS SHOULD
RECOVER SLIGHTLY AS THE MARITIME SYSTEM`S COLD AIR SUPPLY BECOMES
STALER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE. THERE REMAINS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN, MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING. FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED AT RDG. AS THE SHOWERS
END AND WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE. ONCE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN, THEY
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY AFTER
SUNRISE AND WE BEING TO MIX STRONG WINDS FROM ALOFT. WIND GUSTS OF
25-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THE GUSTS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS SHOULD EXCEED 30 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY IN PROXIMITY TO
ANY SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SOME GUSTY DAYTIME NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...LOWEST CONFIDENCE
SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AS SHOWERS MIGHT OCCUR THERE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE OCEAN AS WIND GUSTS OF 25
KNOTS SHOULD INCREASE TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ON THE LOWER DELAWARE
BAY AND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY INTO THE NORTHERN DELAWARE BAY
AS WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE BAY. ALL OF THE
ADVISORIES END AT 6 PM TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY
ON THE OCEAN MAY NEED AN EXTENSION IN TIME FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING IF SEAS TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT PRECEDING THE
NEXT COLD FRONT COULD BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
BACK TO ALL OF THE AREA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE OUTLOOKED AS A NORTHWEST GRADIENT
WIND WILL PERSIST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE OUTLOOKED. THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT WEAKEN SLIGHTLY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATER CONFIDENCE ABOUT SUB SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 210809
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
409 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. REINFORCING
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE AREA PASSING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE. THERE REMAINS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE AS
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE SHOWERS MAY
LINGER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA,
BUT SHOULD END BY MID-MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
THROUGH THE DAY, AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY. WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY. SO WE
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR HIGHS TODAY, WHICH BRINGS EVERYONE PRETTY
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE
DIMINISHED BY SUNSET AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WE DO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL
BE DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CREATE ANY SHOWERS, SO WE KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS,
WHICH BRINGS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE AN ALL TOO FAMILIAR PATTERN OF CLOSED
LOWS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORMAL TO COOLER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILING. THE GFS AND WRF 500MB
INITIALIZATION LOOKED GOOD. THEY BOTH WERE INTERMITTENTLY TOO COLD
AT 850MB AND 925MB AT UPSTREAM SITES.

ON WEDNESDAY, A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO MOVE
THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS HAS DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (QVEC
CONVERGENCE, EXIT REGION OF THE 250MB JET) AS WELL AS PREDICTED
LOW LEVEL THETA E RIDGING. COMING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE
CURRENT SYSTEM THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH AIR MASS RECOVERY FOR
HEAVIER PCPN. BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE INVERTED V
LOOK AND THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY SHOWERS OR TSTMS AS PCPN MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE FAIRLY BULLISH WITH WIND
GUSTS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH. GIVEN DECENT MODELING
CONSENSUS ABOUT SHOWERS, WE UPPED POPS TO LIKELY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES AS TO WHETHER OR NOT A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING THUNDER WILL BE SUFFICIENT. WE ADDED LOW CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA
WHERE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HAVE MORE TIME TO GENERATE
INSTABILITY. ODDLY A FASTER CFP DID NOT TRANSFER INTO LOWER GFS
MOS MAX TEMPS AND WE PREFER THEIR HIGHER NUMBER BASED ON FCST
925MB TEMPS.

UNLIKE NOW WHERE PCPN IS LINGERING AND LINGERING AND LINGERING,
SHOWERS/TSTMS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DECREASE
RAPIDLY WITH SUNSET. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS FAR NORTHWEST WHERE A
SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE 500MB TROF COULD KEEP PCPN
CHANCES GOING INTO THE NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLY SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

BETWEEN THE CHANNELIZED VORT MAX AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITHIN REACH,
SELF DESTRUCT SUNSHINE SHOULD BE OCCURRING ON THURSDAY. ONCE
AGAIN GFS MOS AGREES MORE WITH THE NAM`S THERMAL PROFILES THAN ITS
COLDER OWN. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM CONTINUITY, A COOLER STEP DOWN
OF MAX TEMPS.

WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, THERE
SHOULD BE TOO MUCH OF A GRADIENT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACES WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON HAS MADE STRIDES THE LAST WEEK OR SO. SUB FREEZING
MINS WERE KEPT FAR NORTH.

ANOTHER BREEZY BUT DRY DAY FRIDAY. POSSIBLY LESS SELF DESTRUCT
SUNSHINE THAN THURSDAY AS PREDICTED MOISTURE IS LESS. MAX TEMPS
THOUGH ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, COOLER THAN NORMAL.
FRIDAY NIGHT HAS A GREATER CHANCE TO BE A FROSTY ONE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE COMES CLOSER TO OUR CWA.

ON SATURDAY (THIS SOUNDS LIKE A WINTER SCENARIO), A SOUTHERN SLIDER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO PASS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. AS
LONG AS THE ANTECEDENT UPPER CLOSED/SFC LOW REMAIN LINGERING OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, THIS NEW LOW MAY NOT HAVE THE ABILITY TO
TURN THE CORNER AND AFFECT US. THE LATEST ECMWF BACKED OFF ON PCPN
EXTENT AND WE KEPT THE LOW CHANCE FAR SOUTH BECAUSE OF ITS CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE EXITING LOW.

THEN NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE AIR MASS SHOULD
RECOVER SLIGHTLY AS THE MARITIME SYSTEM`S COLD AIR SUPPLY BECOMES
STALER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE. THERE REMAINS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN, MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING. FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED AT RDG. AS THE SHOWERS
END AND WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE. ONCE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN, THEY
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY AFTER
SUNRISE AND WE BEING TO MIX STRONG WINDS FROM ALOFT. WIND GUSTS OF
25-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THE GUSTS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS SHOULD EXCEED 30 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY IN PROXIMITY TO
ANY SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SOME GUSTY DAYTIME NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...LOWEST CONFIDENCE
SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AS SHOWERS MIGHT OCCUR THERE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE OCEAN AS WIND GUSTS OF 25
KNOTS SHOULD INCREASE TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ON THE LOWER DELAWARE
BAY AND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY INTO THE NORTHERN DELAWARE BAY
AS WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE BAY. ALL OF THE
ADVISORIES END AT 6 PM TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY
ON THE OCEAN MAY NEED AN EXTENSION IN TIME FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING IF SEAS TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT PRECEDING THE
NEXT COLD FRONT COULD BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
BACK TO ALL OF THE AREA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE OUTLOOKED AS A NORTHWEST GRADIENT
WIND WILL PERSIST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE OUTLOOKED. THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT WEAKEN SLIGHTLY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATER CONFIDENCE ABOUT SUB SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 210809
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
409 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. REINFORCING
COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN SLIDE SOUTH OF
THE AREA PASSING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE. THERE REMAINS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIFT OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNRISE AS
A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. THE SHOWERS MAY
LINGER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA,
BUT SHOULD END BY MID-MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
THROUGH THE DAY, AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
AREA LATER IN THE DAY. WITH STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY. SO WE
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES WAS USED FOR HIGHS TODAY, WHICH BRINGS EVERYONE PRETTY
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE
DIMINISHED BY SUNSET AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. WE DO EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE
SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE WILL
BE DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CREATE ANY SHOWERS, SO WE KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY.

A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WAS USED FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS,
WHICH BRINGS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE AN ALL TOO FAMILIAR PATTERN OF CLOSED
LOWS LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NORMAL TO COOLER THAN
NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILING. THE GFS AND WRF 500MB
INITIALIZATION LOOKED GOOD. THEY BOTH WERE INTERMITTENTLY TOO COLD
AT 850MB AND 925MB AT UPSTREAM SITES.

ON WEDNESDAY, A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS PREDICTED TO MOVE
THROUGH OUR CWA. THIS HAS DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (QVEC
CONVERGENCE, EXIT REGION OF THE 250MB JET) AS WELL AS PREDICTED
LOW LEVEL THETA E RIDGING. COMING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE
CURRENT SYSTEM THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH AIR MASS RECOVERY FOR
HEAVIER PCPN. BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE INVERTED V
LOOK AND THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY SHOWERS OR TSTMS AS PCPN MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE FAIRLY BULLISH WITH WIND
GUSTS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 35 MPH. GIVEN DECENT MODELING
CONSENSUS ABOUT SHOWERS, WE UPPED POPS TO LIKELY. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES AS TO WHETHER OR NOT A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING THUNDER WILL BE SUFFICIENT. WE ADDED LOW CHANCES
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA
WHERE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD HAVE MORE TIME TO GENERATE
INSTABILITY. ODDLY A FASTER CFP DID NOT TRANSFER INTO LOWER GFS
MOS MAX TEMPS AND WE PREFER THEIR HIGHER NUMBER BASED ON FCST
925MB TEMPS.

UNLIKE NOW WHERE PCPN IS LINGERING AND LINGERING AND LINGERING,
SHOWERS/TSTMS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND DECREASE
RAPIDLY WITH SUNSET. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS FAR NORTHWEST WHERE A
SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE 500MB TROF COULD KEEP PCPN
CHANCES GOING INTO THE NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR POSSIBLY SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

BETWEEN THE CHANNELIZED VORT MAX AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS WITHIN REACH,
SELF DESTRUCT SUNSHINE SHOULD BE OCCURRING ON THURSDAY. ONCE
AGAIN GFS MOS AGREES MORE WITH THE NAM`S THERMAL PROFILES THAN ITS
COLDER OWN. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM CONTINUITY, A COOLER STEP DOWN
OF MAX TEMPS.

WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW LINGERING OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, THERE
SHOULD BE TOO MUCH OF A GRADIENT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN PLACES WHERE
THE GROWING SEASON HAS MADE STRIDES THE LAST WEEK OR SO. SUB FREEZING
MINS WERE KEPT FAR NORTH.

ANOTHER BREEZY BUT DRY DAY FRIDAY. POSSIBLY LESS SELF DESTRUCT
SUNSHINE THAN THURSDAY AS PREDICTED MOISTURE IS LESS. MAX TEMPS
THOUGH ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, COOLER THAN NORMAL.
FRIDAY NIGHT HAS A GREATER CHANCE TO BE A FROSTY ONE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE COMES CLOSER TO OUR CWA.

ON SATURDAY (THIS SOUNDS LIKE A WINTER SCENARIO), A SOUTHERN SLIDER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO PASS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. AS
LONG AS THE ANTECEDENT UPPER CLOSED/SFC LOW REMAIN LINGERING OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, THIS NEW LOW MAY NOT HAVE THE ABILITY TO
TURN THE CORNER AND AFFECT US. THE LATEST ECMWF BACKED OFF ON PCPN
EXTENT AND WE KEPT THE LOW CHANCE FAR SOUTH BECAUSE OF ITS CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE EXITING LOW.

THEN NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE AIR MASS SHOULD
RECOVER SLIGHTLY AS THE MARITIME SYSTEM`S COLD AIR SUPPLY BECOMES
STALER.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL MAKE ITS WAY OFF THE COAST BY SUNRISE. THERE REMAINS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS FALLEN, MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING. FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED AT RDG. AS THE SHOWERS
END AND WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR EVERYWHERE. ONCE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN, THEY
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY AFTER
SUNRISE AND WE BEING TO MIX STRONG WINDS FROM ALOFT. WIND GUSTS OF
25-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. THE GUSTS WILL DROP OFF
AROUND OR AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS SHOULD EXCEED 30 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY IN PROXIMITY TO
ANY SHOWERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SOME GUSTY DAYTIME NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED.

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...LOWEST CONFIDENCE
SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AS SHOWERS MIGHT OCCUR THERE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON THE OCEAN AS WIND GUSTS OF 25
KNOTS SHOULD INCREASE TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED. THE ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ON THE LOWER DELAWARE
BAY AND WE HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY INTO THE NORTHERN DELAWARE BAY
AS WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT ON THE BAY. ALL OF THE
ADVISORIES END AT 6 PM TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE ADVISORY
ON THE OCEAN MAY NEED AN EXTENSION IN TIME FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING IF SEAS TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT PRECEDING THE
NEXT COLD FRONT COULD BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
BACK TO ALL OF THE AREA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE OUTLOOKED AS A NORTHWEST GRADIENT
WIND WILL PERSIST.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE OUTLOOKED. THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW MIGHT WEAKEN SLIGHTLY.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATER CONFIDENCE ABOUT SUB SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...GAINES/GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 210345
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1145 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL MERGE WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUSH OUT TO SEA BY MORNING. SEVERAL
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WE WILL CANCEL BOTH WATCHES AS THEY WERE SET TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED IN THE MORE STABLE AIR
OVER OUR CWA. THE FRONT IS STILL WEST OF US, SO SOME ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE HAS PASSED, SO WE WILL CANCEL THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY. WE ISSUED AN SPS FOR THE NORTHERN CWA FOG.

AFTER WHATEVER GUSTY WSHIFT LATE THIS EVENING, THEN THE WIND
BRIEFLY BACKS TO SW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY CFP AND THERE MAY BE
ANOTHER SHOWER OR TSTM AROUND 06Z THEN VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A
STEADY WEST WIND TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...00Z/21 TAFS POSTED WITH SOME UNCERTAIN TIMING
OF POTENTIALLY STRONGER TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST
STORM VCNTY KRDG HAD A WEST GUST 38 KT AT 2227Z.

IFR CIGS NW OF THE QSTRY FRONT, ESPECIALLY KABE. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CIGS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY NE-SE NW OF THE QSTRY FNT AND SOUTHERLY
GUSTING TO 15 KT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL WINDS TURNING WNW
OVERNIGHT POST LATE NIGHT CFP.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4500 FT WITH GUSTY W WINDS 20-25 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WINDS
AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER TUE. AREAS
OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THREE RER RAINFALL REPORTS SO FAR TODAY (PHL, ILG, GED) AND THESE
MAY BE UPDATED AT 2 AM AFTER THE CLIMATE DAY ENDS AT 1 AM.

ILG CLIMATE HAD TO HAVE SOME ESTIMATED INFORMATION DUE TO SOME
MISSING DATA (LOW TEMP, RH`S) BUT WE THINK THE DATA IS VERY CLOSE
TO REALITY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NWR PHL PROBLEMS RESOLVED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 210345
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1145 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL MERGE WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUSH OUT TO SEA BY MORNING. SEVERAL
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WE WILL CANCEL BOTH WATCHES AS THEY WERE SET TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED IN THE MORE STABLE AIR
OVER OUR CWA. THE FRONT IS STILL WEST OF US, SO SOME ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE HAS PASSED, SO WE WILL CANCEL THE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY. WE ISSUED AN SPS FOR THE NORTHERN CWA FOG.

AFTER WHATEVER GUSTY WSHIFT LATE THIS EVENING, THEN THE WIND
BRIEFLY BACKS TO SW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY CFP AND THERE MAY BE
ANOTHER SHOWER OR TSTM AROUND 06Z THEN VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A
STEADY WEST WIND TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...00Z/21 TAFS POSTED WITH SOME UNCERTAIN TIMING
OF POTENTIALLY STRONGER TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST
STORM VCNTY KRDG HAD A WEST GUST 38 KT AT 2227Z.

IFR CIGS NW OF THE QSTRY FRONT, ESPECIALLY KABE. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CIGS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY NE-SE NW OF THE QSTRY FNT AND SOUTHERLY
GUSTING TO 15 KT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL WINDS TURNING WNW
OVERNIGHT POST LATE NIGHT CFP.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4500 FT WITH GUSTY W WINDS 20-25 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WINDS
AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER TUE. AREAS
OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THREE RER RAINFALL REPORTS SO FAR TODAY (PHL, ILG, GED) AND THESE
MAY BE UPDATED AT 2 AM AFTER THE CLIMATE DAY ENDS AT 1 AM.

ILG CLIMATE HAD TO HAVE SOME ESTIMATED INFORMATION DUE TO SOME
MISSING DATA (LOW TEMP, RH`S) BUT WE THINK THE DATA IS VERY CLOSE
TO REALITY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NWR PHL PROBLEMS RESOLVED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 210202
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1002 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL MERGE WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUSH OUT TO SEA BY MORNING. SEVERAL
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM: ADDED A SHORT PERIOD OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR NE NJ
VCNTY SANDY HOOK WHICH HAS EXCEEDED THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

I PROBABLY DONT HAVE ENOUGH FOG GOING IN THE FCST N OF I78 FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

930 PM: PER SPC AND COLLAB HAVE EXTENDED THE TOR WATCH 90 AND SVR
WATCH 92 CONTINUES AS POSTED. SO FAR, NOT MUCH HAS HAPPENED IN OUR
CWA BUT IT ONLY TAKES ONE BIG STORM TO MAKE LIFE VERY DIFFICULT
AND SO WE WANT EVERYONE PREPARED. THE FOCUS OF THE REMAINING
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL/NNJ NEAR THE QSTRY
FRONT WHERE CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED.

VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR -2 TO 4 SBLI AS OF 01Z/21 WITH PLENTY
OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR, THE NEARBY QSTRY FRONT AND A SFC LOW NEAR
KMDT, MEAGER 3 HR PRES FALL OF 1MB VCNTY PA AND LIKELIHOOD OF
OVERALL CFP BY 07Z-08Z, SUGGEST WE STILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR
EVENTUAL BOWING OF UPSTREAM SEGMENTS AND STRONG WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS ARRIVING HERE. THE 2215Z STORM AT KRDG DELIVER 38KT. IT WAS
A SMALL SUPERCELL.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST SVR BUT UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
INCREASING ACTIVITY UPSTREAM.

QSTNRY FRONT JUST NW OF I95. STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ALONG
OR EAST OF THAT LATE THIS EVENING.

AFTER WHATEVER GUSTY WSHIFT LATE THIS EVENING, THEN THE WIND
BRIEFLY BACKS TO SW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY CFP AND THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
SHOWER OR TSTM AROUND 06Z THEN VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A STEADY WEST
WIND TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...00Z/21 TAFS POSTED WITH SOME UNCERTAIN TIMING
OF POTENTIALLY STRONGER TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST
STORM VCNTY KRDG HAD A WEST GUST 38 KT AT 2227Z.

IFR CIGS NW OF THE QSTRY FRONT, ESPECIALLY KABE. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CIGS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY NE-SE NW OF THE QSTRY FNT AND SOUTHERLY
GUSTING TO 15 KT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL WINDS TURNING WNW
OVERNIGHT POST LATE NIGHT CFP.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4500 FT WITH GUSTY W WINDS 20-25 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WINDS
AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER TUE. AREAS
OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THREE RER RAINFALL REPORTS SO FAR TODAY (PHL, ILG, GED) AND THESE
MAY BE UPDATED AT 2 AM AFTER THE CLIMATE DAY ENDS AT 1 AM.

ILG CLIMATE HAD TO HAVE SOME ESTIMATED INFORMATION DUE TO SOME
MISSING DATA (LOW TEMP, RH`S) BUT WE THINK THE DATA IS VERY CLOSE
TO REALITY.

 &&

.EQUIPMENT...
PHL NWR EQMT CONTINUES BEING CHECKED EXTERNAL TO NWS. OUTAGE
SINCE ABOUT 557P. PHL NWR HAS BEEN BRIEFLY ON THE AIR AT TIMES
LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NWR PHL CONTINUES INTERMITTENTLY OFF THE AIR. TECHS ARE LOOKING
INTO THE PROBLEM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ012>014.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 10P
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...10P





000
FXUS61 KPHI 210202
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1002 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL MERGE WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUSH OUT TO SEA BY MORNING. SEVERAL
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM: ADDED A SHORT PERIOD OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR NE NJ
VCNTY SANDY HOOK WHICH HAS EXCEEDED THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

I PROBABLY DONT HAVE ENOUGH FOG GOING IN THE FCST N OF I78 FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

930 PM: PER SPC AND COLLAB HAVE EXTENDED THE TOR WATCH 90 AND SVR
WATCH 92 CONTINUES AS POSTED. SO FAR, NOT MUCH HAS HAPPENED IN OUR
CWA BUT IT ONLY TAKES ONE BIG STORM TO MAKE LIFE VERY DIFFICULT
AND SO WE WANT EVERYONE PREPARED. THE FOCUS OF THE REMAINING
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL/NNJ NEAR THE QSTRY
FRONT WHERE CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED.

VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR -2 TO 4 SBLI AS OF 01Z/21 WITH PLENTY
OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR, THE NEARBY QSTRY FRONT AND A SFC LOW NEAR
KMDT, MEAGER 3 HR PRES FALL OF 1MB VCNTY PA AND LIKELIHOOD OF
OVERALL CFP BY 07Z-08Z, SUGGEST WE STILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR
EVENTUAL BOWING OF UPSTREAM SEGMENTS AND STRONG WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS ARRIVING HERE. THE 2215Z STORM AT KRDG DELIVER 38KT. IT WAS
A SMALL SUPERCELL.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST SVR BUT UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
INCREASING ACTIVITY UPSTREAM.

QSTNRY FRONT JUST NW OF I95. STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ALONG
OR EAST OF THAT LATE THIS EVENING.

AFTER WHATEVER GUSTY WSHIFT LATE THIS EVENING, THEN THE WIND
BRIEFLY BACKS TO SW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY CFP AND THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
SHOWER OR TSTM AROUND 06Z THEN VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A STEADY WEST
WIND TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...00Z/21 TAFS POSTED WITH SOME UNCERTAIN TIMING
OF POTENTIALLY STRONGER TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST
STORM VCNTY KRDG HAD A WEST GUST 38 KT AT 2227Z.

IFR CIGS NW OF THE QSTRY FRONT, ESPECIALLY KABE. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CIGS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY NE-SE NW OF THE QSTRY FNT AND SOUTHERLY
GUSTING TO 15 KT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL WINDS TURNING WNW
OVERNIGHT POST LATE NIGHT CFP.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4500 FT WITH GUSTY W WINDS 20-25 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WINDS
AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER TUE. AREAS
OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THREE RER RAINFALL REPORTS SO FAR TODAY (PHL, ILG, GED) AND THESE
MAY BE UPDATED AT 2 AM AFTER THE CLIMATE DAY ENDS AT 1 AM.

ILG CLIMATE HAD TO HAVE SOME ESTIMATED INFORMATION DUE TO SOME
MISSING DATA (LOW TEMP, RH`S) BUT WE THINK THE DATA IS VERY CLOSE
TO REALITY.

 &&

.EQUIPMENT...
PHL NWR EQMT CONTINUES BEING CHECKED EXTERNAL TO NWS. OUTAGE
SINCE ABOUT 557P. PHL NWR HAS BEEN BRIEFLY ON THE AIR AT TIMES
LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NWR PHL CONTINUES INTERMITTENTLY OFF THE AIR. TECHS ARE LOOKING
INTO THE PROBLEM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ012>014.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 10P
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...10P




000
FXUS61 KPHI 210202
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1002 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL MERGE WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUSH OUT TO SEA BY MORNING. SEVERAL
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM: ADDED A SHORT PERIOD OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR NE NJ
VCNTY SANDY HOOK WHICH HAS EXCEEDED THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

I PROBABLY DONT HAVE ENOUGH FOG GOING IN THE FCST N OF I78 FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

930 PM: PER SPC AND COLLAB HAVE EXTENDED THE TOR WATCH 90 AND SVR
WATCH 92 CONTINUES AS POSTED. SO FAR, NOT MUCH HAS HAPPENED IN OUR
CWA BUT IT ONLY TAKES ONE BIG STORM TO MAKE LIFE VERY DIFFICULT
AND SO WE WANT EVERYONE PREPARED. THE FOCUS OF THE REMAINING
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL/NNJ NEAR THE QSTRY
FRONT WHERE CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED.

VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR -2 TO 4 SBLI AS OF 01Z/21 WITH PLENTY
OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR, THE NEARBY QSTRY FRONT AND A SFC LOW NEAR
KMDT, MEAGER 3 HR PRES FALL OF 1MB VCNTY PA AND LIKELIHOOD OF
OVERALL CFP BY 07Z-08Z, SUGGEST WE STILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR
EVENTUAL BOWING OF UPSTREAM SEGMENTS AND STRONG WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS ARRIVING HERE. THE 2215Z STORM AT KRDG DELIVER 38KT. IT WAS
A SMALL SUPERCELL.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST SVR BUT UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
INCREASING ACTIVITY UPSTREAM.

QSTNRY FRONT JUST NW OF I95. STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ALONG
OR EAST OF THAT LATE THIS EVENING.

AFTER WHATEVER GUSTY WSHIFT LATE THIS EVENING, THEN THE WIND
BRIEFLY BACKS TO SW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY CFP AND THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
SHOWER OR TSTM AROUND 06Z THEN VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A STEADY WEST
WIND TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...00Z/21 TAFS POSTED WITH SOME UNCERTAIN TIMING
OF POTENTIALLY STRONGER TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST
STORM VCNTY KRDG HAD A WEST GUST 38 KT AT 2227Z.

IFR CIGS NW OF THE QSTRY FRONT, ESPECIALLY KABE. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CIGS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY NE-SE NW OF THE QSTRY FNT AND SOUTHERLY
GUSTING TO 15 KT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL WINDS TURNING WNW
OVERNIGHT POST LATE NIGHT CFP.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4500 FT WITH GUSTY W WINDS 20-25 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WINDS
AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER TUE. AREAS
OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THREE RER RAINFALL REPORTS SO FAR TODAY (PHL, ILG, GED) AND THESE
MAY BE UPDATED AT 2 AM AFTER THE CLIMATE DAY ENDS AT 1 AM.

ILG CLIMATE HAD TO HAVE SOME ESTIMATED INFORMATION DUE TO SOME
MISSING DATA (LOW TEMP, RH`S) BUT WE THINK THE DATA IS VERY CLOSE
TO REALITY.

 &&

.EQUIPMENT...
PHL NWR EQMT CONTINUES BEING CHECKED EXTERNAL TO NWS. OUTAGE
SINCE ABOUT 557P. PHL NWR HAS BEEN BRIEFLY ON THE AIR AT TIMES
LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NWR PHL CONTINUES INTERMITTENTLY OFF THE AIR. TECHS ARE LOOKING
INTO THE PROBLEM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ012>014.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 10P
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...10P




000
FXUS61 KPHI 210202
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1002 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL MERGE WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUSH OUT TO SEA BY MORNING. SEVERAL
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
10 PM: ADDED A SHORT PERIOD OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR NE NJ
VCNTY SANDY HOOK WHICH HAS EXCEEDED THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

I PROBABLY DONT HAVE ENOUGH FOG GOING IN THE FCST N OF I78 FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

930 PM: PER SPC AND COLLAB HAVE EXTENDED THE TOR WATCH 90 AND SVR
WATCH 92 CONTINUES AS POSTED. SO FAR, NOT MUCH HAS HAPPENED IN OUR
CWA BUT IT ONLY TAKES ONE BIG STORM TO MAKE LIFE VERY DIFFICULT
AND SO WE WANT EVERYONE PREPARED. THE FOCUS OF THE REMAINING
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL/NNJ NEAR THE QSTRY
FRONT WHERE CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED.

VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR -2 TO 4 SBLI AS OF 01Z/21 WITH PLENTY
OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR, THE NEARBY QSTRY FRONT AND A SFC LOW NEAR
KMDT, MEAGER 3 HR PRES FALL OF 1MB VCNTY PA AND LIKELIHOOD OF
OVERALL CFP BY 07Z-08Z, SUGGEST WE STILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR
EVENTUAL BOWING OF UPSTREAM SEGMENTS AND STRONG WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS ARRIVING HERE. THE 2215Z STORM AT KRDG DELIVER 38KT. IT WAS
A SMALL SUPERCELL.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST SVR BUT UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
INCREASING ACTIVITY UPSTREAM.

QSTNRY FRONT JUST NW OF I95. STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ALONG
OR EAST OF THAT LATE THIS EVENING.

AFTER WHATEVER GUSTY WSHIFT LATE THIS EVENING, THEN THE WIND
BRIEFLY BACKS TO SW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY CFP AND THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
SHOWER OR TSTM AROUND 06Z THEN VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A STEADY WEST
WIND TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...00Z/21 TAFS POSTED WITH SOME UNCERTAIN TIMING
OF POTENTIALLY STRONGER TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST
STORM VCNTY KRDG HAD A WEST GUST 38 KT AT 2227Z.

IFR CIGS NW OF THE QSTRY FRONT, ESPECIALLY KABE. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CIGS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY NE-SE NW OF THE QSTRY FNT AND SOUTHERLY
GUSTING TO 15 KT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL WINDS TURNING WNW
OVERNIGHT POST LATE NIGHT CFP.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4500 FT WITH GUSTY W WINDS 20-25 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WINDS
AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER TUE. AREAS
OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THREE RER RAINFALL REPORTS SO FAR TODAY (PHL, ILG, GED) AND THESE
MAY BE UPDATED AT 2 AM AFTER THE CLIMATE DAY ENDS AT 1 AM.

ILG CLIMATE HAD TO HAVE SOME ESTIMATED INFORMATION DUE TO SOME
MISSING DATA (LOW TEMP, RH`S) BUT WE THINK THE DATA IS VERY CLOSE
TO REALITY.

 &&

.EQUIPMENT...
PHL NWR EQMT CONTINUES BEING CHECKED EXTERNAL TO NWS. OUTAGE
SINCE ABOUT 557P. PHL NWR HAS BEEN BRIEFLY ON THE AIR AT TIMES
LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NWR PHL CONTINUES INTERMITTENTLY OFF THE AIR. TECHS ARE LOOKING
INTO THE PROBLEM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     NJZ012>014.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 10P
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...10P





000
FXUS61 KPHI 210141
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL MERGE WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUSH OUT TO SEA BY MORNING. SEVERAL
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM: PER SPC AND COLLAB HAVE EXTENDED THE TOR WATCH 90 AND SVR
WATCH 92 CONTINUES AS POSTED. SO FAR, NOT MUCH HAS HAPPENED IN OUR
CWA BUT IT ONLY TAKES ONE BIG STORM TO MAKE LIFE VERY DIFFICULT
AND SO WE WANT EVERYONE PREPARED. THE FOCUS OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE IN EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL/NNJ NEAR THE QSTRY FRONT WHERE
CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED.

VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR -2 TO 4 SBLI AS OF 01Z/21 WITH PLENTY
OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR, THE NEARBY QSTRY FRONT AND A SFC LOW NEAR
KMDT, MEAGER 3 HR PRES FALL OF 1MB VCNTY PA AND LIKELIHOOD OF
OVERALL CFP BY 07Z-08Z, SUGGEST WE STILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR
EVENTUAL BOWING OF UPSTREAM SEGMENTS AND STRONG WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS ARRIVING HERE. THE 2215Z STORM AT KRDG DELIVER 38KT. IT WAS
A SMALL SUPERCELL.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST SVR BUT UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
INCREASING ACTIVITY UPSTREAM.

QSTNRY FRONT JUST NW OF I95. STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ALONG
OR EAST OF THAT LATE THIS EVENING.

AFTER WHATEVER GUSTY WSHIFT LATE THIS EVENING, THEN THE WIND
BRIEFLY BACKS TO SW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY CFP AND THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
SHOWER OR TSTM AROUND 06Z THEN VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A STEADY WEST
WIND TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...00Z/21 TAFS POSTED WITH SOME UNCERTAIN TIMING
OF POTENTIALLY STRONGER TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST
STORM VCNTY KRDG HAD A WEST GUST 38 KT AT 2227Z.

IFR CIGS NW OF THE QSTRY FRONT, ESPECIALLY KABE. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CIGS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY NE-SE NW OF THE QSTRY FNT AND SOUTHERLY
GUSTING TO 15 KT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL WINDS TURNING WNW
OVERNIGHT POST LATE NIGHT CFP.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4500 FT WITH GUSTY W WINDS 20-25 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WINDS
AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER TUE. AREAS
OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THREE RER RAINFALL REPORTS SO FAR TODAY (PHL, ILG, GED) AND THESE
MAY BE UPDATED AT 2 AM AFTER THE CLIMATE DAY ENDS AT 1 AM.

ILG CLIMATE HAD TO HAVE SOME ESTIMATED INFORMATION DUE TO SOME
MISSING DATA (LOW TEMP, RH`S) BUT WE THINK THE DATA IS VERY CLOSE
TO REALITY.

 &&

.EQUIPMENT...
PHL NWR EQMT CONTINUES BEING CHECKED EXTERNAL TO NWS. OUTAGE
SINCE ABOUT 557P. PHL NWR HAS BEEN BRIEFLY ON THE AIR AT TIMES
LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 942
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 942
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 942
CLIMATE...942
EQUIPMENT...942




000
FXUS61 KPHI 210141
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL MERGE WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUSH OUT TO SEA BY MORNING. SEVERAL
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM: PER SPC AND COLLAB HAVE EXTENDED THE TOR WATCH 90 AND SVR
WATCH 92 CONTINUES AS POSTED. SO FAR, NOT MUCH HAS HAPPENED IN OUR
CWA BUT IT ONLY TAKES ONE BIG STORM TO MAKE LIFE VERY DIFFICULT
AND SO WE WANT EVERYONE PREPARED. THE FOCUS OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE IN EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL/NNJ NEAR THE QSTRY FRONT WHERE
CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED.

VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR -2 TO 4 SBLI AS OF 01Z/21 WITH PLENTY
OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR, THE NEARBY QSTRY FRONT AND A SFC LOW NEAR
KMDT, MEAGER 3 HR PRES FALL OF 1MB VCNTY PA AND LIKELIHOOD OF
OVERALL CFP BY 07Z-08Z, SUGGEST WE STILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR
EVENTUAL BOWING OF UPSTREAM SEGMENTS AND STRONG WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS ARRIVING HERE. THE 2215Z STORM AT KRDG DELIVER 38KT. IT WAS
A SMALL SUPERCELL.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST SVR BUT UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
INCREASING ACTIVITY UPSTREAM.

QSTNRY FRONT JUST NW OF I95. STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ALONG
OR EAST OF THAT LATE THIS EVENING.

AFTER WHATEVER GUSTY WSHIFT LATE THIS EVENING, THEN THE WIND
BRIEFLY BACKS TO SW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY CFP AND THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
SHOWER OR TSTM AROUND 06Z THEN VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A STEADY WEST
WIND TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...00Z/21 TAFS POSTED WITH SOME UNCERTAIN TIMING
OF POTENTIALLY STRONGER TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST
STORM VCNTY KRDG HAD A WEST GUST 38 KT AT 2227Z.

IFR CIGS NW OF THE QSTRY FRONT, ESPECIALLY KABE. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CIGS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY NE-SE NW OF THE QSTRY FNT AND SOUTHERLY
GUSTING TO 15 KT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL WINDS TURNING WNW
OVERNIGHT POST LATE NIGHT CFP.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4500 FT WITH GUSTY W WINDS 20-25 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WINDS
AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER TUE. AREAS
OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THREE RER RAINFALL REPORTS SO FAR TODAY (PHL, ILG, GED) AND THESE
MAY BE UPDATED AT 2 AM AFTER THE CLIMATE DAY ENDS AT 1 AM.

ILG CLIMATE HAD TO HAVE SOME ESTIMATED INFORMATION DUE TO SOME
MISSING DATA (LOW TEMP, RH`S) BUT WE THINK THE DATA IS VERY CLOSE
TO REALITY.

 &&

.EQUIPMENT...
PHL NWR EQMT CONTINUES BEING CHECKED EXTERNAL TO NWS. OUTAGE
SINCE ABOUT 557P. PHL NWR HAS BEEN BRIEFLY ON THE AIR AT TIMES
LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 942
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 942
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 942
CLIMATE...942
EQUIPMENT...942





000
FXUS61 KPHI 210141
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL MERGE WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUSH OUT TO SEA BY MORNING. SEVERAL
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM: PER SPC AND COLLAB HAVE EXTENDED THE TOR WATCH 90 AND SVR
WATCH 92 CONTINUES AS POSTED. SO FAR, NOT MUCH HAS HAPPENED IN OUR
CWA BUT IT ONLY TAKES ONE BIG STORM TO MAKE LIFE VERY DIFFICULT
AND SO WE WANT EVERYONE PREPARED. THE FOCUS OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE IN EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL/NNJ NEAR THE QSTRY FRONT WHERE
CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED.

VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR -2 TO 4 SBLI AS OF 01Z/21 WITH PLENTY
OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR, THE NEARBY QSTRY FRONT AND A SFC LOW NEAR
KMDT, MEAGER 3 HR PRES FALL OF 1MB VCNTY PA AND LIKELIHOOD OF
OVERALL CFP BY 07Z-08Z, SUGGEST WE STILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR
EVENTUAL BOWING OF UPSTREAM SEGMENTS AND STRONG WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS ARRIVING HERE. THE 2215Z STORM AT KRDG DELIVER 38KT. IT WAS
A SMALL SUPERCELL.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST SVR BUT UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
INCREASING ACTIVITY UPSTREAM.

QSTNRY FRONT JUST NW OF I95. STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ALONG
OR EAST OF THAT LATE THIS EVENING.

AFTER WHATEVER GUSTY WSHIFT LATE THIS EVENING, THEN THE WIND
BRIEFLY BACKS TO SW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY CFP AND THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
SHOWER OR TSTM AROUND 06Z THEN VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A STEADY WEST
WIND TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...00Z/21 TAFS POSTED WITH SOME UNCERTAIN TIMING
OF POTENTIALLY STRONGER TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST
STORM VCNTY KRDG HAD A WEST GUST 38 KT AT 2227Z.

IFR CIGS NW OF THE QSTRY FRONT, ESPECIALLY KABE. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CIGS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY NE-SE NW OF THE QSTRY FNT AND SOUTHERLY
GUSTING TO 15 KT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL WINDS TURNING WNW
OVERNIGHT POST LATE NIGHT CFP.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4500 FT WITH GUSTY W WINDS 20-25 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WINDS
AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER TUE. AREAS
OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THREE RER RAINFALL REPORTS SO FAR TODAY (PHL, ILG, GED) AND THESE
MAY BE UPDATED AT 2 AM AFTER THE CLIMATE DAY ENDS AT 1 AM.

ILG CLIMATE HAD TO HAVE SOME ESTIMATED INFORMATION DUE TO SOME
MISSING DATA (LOW TEMP, RH`S) BUT WE THINK THE DATA IS VERY CLOSE
TO REALITY.

 &&

.EQUIPMENT...
PHL NWR EQMT CONTINUES BEING CHECKED EXTERNAL TO NWS. OUTAGE
SINCE ABOUT 557P. PHL NWR HAS BEEN BRIEFLY ON THE AIR AT TIMES
LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 942
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 942
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 942
CLIMATE...942
EQUIPMENT...942





000
FXUS61 KPHI 210141
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL MERGE WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUSH OUT TO SEA BY MORNING. SEVERAL
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM: PER SPC AND COLLAB HAVE EXTENDED THE TOR WATCH 90 AND SVR
WATCH 92 CONTINUES AS POSTED. SO FAR, NOT MUCH HAS HAPPENED IN OUR
CWA BUT IT ONLY TAKES ONE BIG STORM TO MAKE LIFE VERY DIFFICULT
AND SO WE WANT EVERYONE PREPARED. THE FOCUS OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE IN EASTERN PA AND CENTRAL/NNJ NEAR THE QSTRY FRONT WHERE
CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED.

VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR -2 TO 4 SBLI AS OF 01Z/21 WITH PLENTY
OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR, THE NEARBY QSTRY FRONT AND A SFC LOW NEAR
KMDT, MEAGER 3 HR PRES FALL OF 1MB VCNTY PA AND LIKELIHOOD OF
OVERALL CFP BY 07Z-08Z, SUGGEST WE STILL NEED TO BE ALERT FOR
EVENTUAL BOWING OF UPSTREAM SEGMENTS AND STRONG WESTERLY WIND
GUSTS ARRIVING HERE. THE 2215Z STORM AT KRDG DELIVER 38KT. IT WAS
A SMALL SUPERCELL.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST SVR BUT UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
INCREASING ACTIVITY UPSTREAM.

QSTNRY FRONT JUST NW OF I95. STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ALONG
OR EAST OF THAT LATE THIS EVENING.

AFTER WHATEVER GUSTY WSHIFT LATE THIS EVENING, THEN THE WIND
BRIEFLY BACKS TO SW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY CFP AND THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
SHOWER OR TSTM AROUND 06Z THEN VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A STEADY WEST
WIND TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...00Z/21 TAFS POSTED WITH SOME UNCERTAIN TIMING
OF POTENTIALLY STRONGER TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST
STORM VCNTY KRDG HAD A WEST GUST 38 KT AT 2227Z.

IFR CIGS NW OF THE QSTRY FRONT, ESPECIALLY KABE. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CIGS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY NE-SE NW OF THE QSTRY FNT AND SOUTHERLY
GUSTING TO 15 KT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL WINDS TURNING WNW
OVERNIGHT POST LATE NIGHT CFP.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4500 FT WITH GUSTY W WINDS 20-25 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WINDS
AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER TUE. AREAS
OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THREE RER RAINFALL REPORTS SO FAR TODAY (PHL, ILG, GED) AND THESE
MAY BE UPDATED AT 2 AM AFTER THE CLIMATE DAY ENDS AT 1 AM.

ILG CLIMATE HAD TO HAVE SOME ESTIMATED INFORMATION DUE TO SOME
MISSING DATA (LOW TEMP, RH`S) BUT WE THINK THE DATA IS VERY CLOSE
TO REALITY.

 &&

.EQUIPMENT...
PHL NWR EQMT CONTINUES BEING CHECKED EXTERNAL TO NWS. OUTAGE
SINCE ABOUT 557P. PHL NWR HAS BEEN BRIEFLY ON THE AIR AT TIMES
LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 942
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 942
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 942
CLIMATE...942
EQUIPMENT...942




000
FXUS61 KPHI 210020
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
820 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL MERGE WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUSH OUT TO SEA BY MORNING. SEVERAL
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
8 PM: SPC WATCH-SVR THUNDERSTORM 092 POSTED.

VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR -3 TO 6 SBLI AS OF 0Z/21 WITH PLENTY OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR, THE NEARBY QSTRY FRONT, PRES FALL OF 2MB IN 3
HRS VCNTY S CENTRAL PA AND LIKELIHOOD OF OVERALL CFP BY 07Z-08Z,
SUGGEST WE NEED TO KEEP ON OUR TOES FOR AN EVENTUAL BOWING OF
UPSTREAM SEGMENTS AND STRONG WESTERLY WIND GUSTS ARRIVING HERE.
THE 2215Z STORM AT KRDG DELIVER 38KT. IT WAS A SMALL SUPERCELL.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST SVR BUT UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
INCREASING ACTIVITY UPSTREAM.

THE TOR WATCH MAY NEED AN EXTENSION TIL 05Z PENDING CONSULT WITH
SPC AT 0135Z AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS.

QSTNRY FRONT JUST NW OF I95. STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ALONG
OR EAST OF THAT LATE THIS EVENING.

AFTER WHATEVER GUSTY WSHIFT LATE THIS EVENING, THEN THE WIND
BRIEFLY BACKS TO SW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY CFP AND THERE MAY BER
ANOTHER SHOWER OR TSTM AROUND 06Z THEN VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A
STEADY WEST WIND TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...00Z/21 TAFS POSTED WITH SOME UNCERTAIN TIMING
OF POTENTIALLY STRONGER TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST
STORM VCNTY KRDG HAD A WEST GUST 38 KT AT 2227Z.

IFR CIGS NW OF THE QSTRY FRONT, ESPECIALLY KABE. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CIGS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY NE-SE NW OF THE QSTRY FNT AND SOUTHERLY
GUSTING TO 15 KT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL WINDS TURNING WNW
OVERNIGHT POST LATE NIGHT CFP.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4500 FT WITH GUSTY W WINDS 20-25 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WINDS
AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER TUE. AREAS
OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PHL NWR EQMT BEING CHECKED EXTERNAL TO NWS. OUTAGE SINCE ABOUT
557P.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 820
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 820
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 820
EQUIPMENT...820




000
FXUS61 KPHI 210020
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
820 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL MERGE WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUSH OUT TO SEA BY MORNING. SEVERAL
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
8 PM: SPC WATCH-SVR THUNDERSTORM 092 POSTED.

VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR -3 TO 6 SBLI AS OF 0Z/21 WITH PLENTY OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR, THE NEARBY QSTRY FRONT, PRES FALL OF 2MB IN 3
HRS VCNTY S CENTRAL PA AND LIKELIHOOD OF OVERALL CFP BY 07Z-08Z,
SUGGEST WE NEED TO KEEP ON OUR TOES FOR AN EVENTUAL BOWING OF
UPSTREAM SEGMENTS AND STRONG WESTERLY WIND GUSTS ARRIVING HERE.
THE 2215Z STORM AT KRDG DELIVER 38KT. IT WAS A SMALL SUPERCELL.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST SVR BUT UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
INCREASING ACTIVITY UPSTREAM.

THE TOR WATCH MAY NEED AN EXTENSION TIL 05Z PENDING CONSULT WITH
SPC AT 0135Z AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS.

QSTNRY FRONT JUST NW OF I95. STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ALONG
OR EAST OF THAT LATE THIS EVENING.

AFTER WHATEVER GUSTY WSHIFT LATE THIS EVENING, THEN THE WIND
BRIEFLY BACKS TO SW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY CFP AND THERE MAY BER
ANOTHER SHOWER OR TSTM AROUND 06Z THEN VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A
STEADY WEST WIND TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...00Z/21 TAFS POSTED WITH SOME UNCERTAIN TIMING
OF POTENTIALLY STRONGER TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST
STORM VCNTY KRDG HAD A WEST GUST 38 KT AT 2227Z.

IFR CIGS NW OF THE QSTRY FRONT, ESPECIALLY KABE. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CIGS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY NE-SE NW OF THE QSTRY FNT AND SOUTHERLY
GUSTING TO 15 KT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL WINDS TURNING WNW
OVERNIGHT POST LATE NIGHT CFP.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4500 FT WITH GUSTY W WINDS 20-25 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WINDS
AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER TUE. AREAS
OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PHL NWR EQMT BEING CHECKED EXTERNAL TO NWS. OUTAGE SINCE ABOUT
557P.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 820
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 820
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 820
EQUIPMENT...820





000
FXUS61 KPHI 210020
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
820 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL MERGE WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUSH OUT TO SEA BY MORNING. SEVERAL
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
8 PM: SPC WATCH-SVR THUNDERSTORM 092 POSTED.

VERY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR -3 TO 6 SBLI AS OF 0Z/21 WITH PLENTY OF
0-6KM BULK SHEAR, THE NEARBY QSTRY FRONT, PRES FALL OF 2MB IN 3
HRS VCNTY S CENTRAL PA AND LIKELIHOOD OF OVERALL CFP BY 07Z-08Z,
SUGGEST WE NEED TO KEEP ON OUR TOES FOR AN EVENTUAL BOWING OF
UPSTREAM SEGMENTS AND STRONG WESTERLY WIND GUSTS ARRIVING HERE.
THE 2215Z STORM AT KRDG DELIVER 38KT. IT WAS A SMALL SUPERCELL.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST SVR BUT UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
INCREASING ACTIVITY UPSTREAM.

THE TOR WATCH MAY NEED AN EXTENSION TIL 05Z PENDING CONSULT WITH
SPC AT 0135Z AND UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS.

QSTNRY FRONT JUST NW OF I95. STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ALONG
OR EAST OF THAT LATE THIS EVENING.

AFTER WHATEVER GUSTY WSHIFT LATE THIS EVENING, THEN THE WIND
BRIEFLY BACKS TO SW AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY CFP AND THERE MAY BER
ANOTHER SHOWER OR TSTM AROUND 06Z THEN VARIABLE CLOUDS AND A
STEADY WEST WIND TOWARD DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...00Z/21 TAFS POSTED WITH SOME UNCERTAIN TIMING
OF POTENTIALLY STRONGER TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST
STORM VCNTY KRDG HAD A WEST GUST 38 KT AT 2227Z.

IFR CIGS NW OF THE QSTRY FRONT, ESPECIALLY KABE. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CIGS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY NE-SE NW OF THE QSTRY FNT AND SOUTHERLY
GUSTING TO 15 KT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL WINDS TURNING WNW
OVERNIGHT POST LATE NIGHT CFP.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4500 FT WITH GUSTY W WINDS 20-25 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND THEN WINDS
AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER TUE. AREAS
OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PHL NWR EQMT BEING CHECKED EXTERNAL TO NWS. OUTAGE SINCE ABOUT
557P.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 820
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 820
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 820
EQUIPMENT...820




000
FXUS61 KPHI 202352
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
752 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL MERGE WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUSH OUT TO SEA BY MORNING. SEVERAL
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
745 PM: NEW SELS WATCH-SVR THUNDERSTORM 092 COMING UP FOR NE PA
AND NW NJ.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST SVR BUT UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
INCREASING ACTIVITY UPSTREAM.

WE MAY EVENTUALLY EXTEND THE TORN WATCH TIL 05Z PENDING ACTIVITY
AT 0135Z ASSESSMENT.


KRDG HAD 38 KT AT 2227Z. VERY GOOD FOR A SMALL STORM WITH ELEVATED
ROTATION AND PREVIOUS NORTHERLY FLOW.

QSTNRY FRONT JUST NW OF I95. STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ALONG
OR EAST OF THAT LATE THIS EVENING.

SPC CONTINUES THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE WRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE REGION
UNTIL 10 PM. MORE SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH FROPA AROUND MIDNIGHT
WEST -- 03 AM EAST. WINDS SHIFT WRLY BEHIND THE FRNT AND PRECIP
ENDS MOST AREAS BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...00Z/1 TAFS POSTED WITH SOME UNCERTAIN TIMING OF
POTENTIALLY STRONGER TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST STORM
VCNTY KRDG HAD A WEST GUST 38 KT AT 2227Z.

IFR CIGS NW OF THE QSTRY FRONT, ESPECIALLY KABE. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CIGS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY NE-SE NW OF THE QSTRY FNT AND SOUTHERLY
GUSTING TO 15 KT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL WINDS TURNING WNW
OVERNIGHT POST LATE NIGHT CFP.

TUE...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4500 FT WITH GUSTY W WINDS 20-25 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND
THEN WINDS AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER
TUE. AREAS OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PHL EQMT BEING CHECKED EXTERNAL TO NWS. OUTAGE SINCE ABOUT 557P.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 752
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 752
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA
EQUIPMENT...752




000
FXUS61 KPHI 202352
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
752 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL MERGE WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUSH OUT TO SEA BY MORNING. SEVERAL
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
745 PM: NEW SELS WATCH-SVR THUNDERSTORM 092 COMING UP FOR NE PA
AND NW NJ.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST SVR BUT UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
INCREASING ACTIVITY UPSTREAM.

WE MAY EVENTUALLY EXTEND THE TORN WATCH TIL 05Z PENDING ACTIVITY
AT 0135Z ASSESSMENT.


KRDG HAD 38 KT AT 2227Z. VERY GOOD FOR A SMALL STORM WITH ELEVATED
ROTATION AND PREVIOUS NORTHERLY FLOW.

QSTNRY FRONT JUST NW OF I95. STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ALONG
OR EAST OF THAT LATE THIS EVENING.

SPC CONTINUES THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE WRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE REGION
UNTIL 10 PM. MORE SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH FROPA AROUND MIDNIGHT
WEST -- 03 AM EAST. WINDS SHIFT WRLY BEHIND THE FRNT AND PRECIP
ENDS MOST AREAS BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...00Z/1 TAFS POSTED WITH SOME UNCERTAIN TIMING OF
POTENTIALLY STRONGER TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST STORM
VCNTY KRDG HAD A WEST GUST 38 KT AT 2227Z.

IFR CIGS NW OF THE QSTRY FRONT, ESPECIALLY KABE. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CIGS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY NE-SE NW OF THE QSTRY FNT AND SOUTHERLY
GUSTING TO 15 KT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL WINDS TURNING WNW
OVERNIGHT POST LATE NIGHT CFP.

TUE...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4500 FT WITH GUSTY W WINDS 20-25 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND
THEN WINDS AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER
TUE. AREAS OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PHL EQMT BEING CHECKED EXTERNAL TO NWS. OUTAGE SINCE ABOUT 557P.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 752
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 752
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA
EQUIPMENT...752





000
FXUS61 KPHI 202352
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
752 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL MERGE WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUSH OUT TO SEA BY MORNING. SEVERAL
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
745 PM: NEW SELS WATCH-SVR THUNDERSTORM 092 COMING UP FOR NE PA
AND NW NJ.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST SVR BUT UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
INCREASING ACTIVITY UPSTREAM.

WE MAY EVENTUALLY EXTEND THE TORN WATCH TIL 05Z PENDING ACTIVITY
AT 0135Z ASSESSMENT.


KRDG HAD 38 KT AT 2227Z. VERY GOOD FOR A SMALL STORM WITH ELEVATED
ROTATION AND PREVIOUS NORTHERLY FLOW.

QSTNRY FRONT JUST NW OF I95. STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ALONG
OR EAST OF THAT LATE THIS EVENING.

SPC CONTINUES THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE WRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE REGION
UNTIL 10 PM. MORE SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH FROPA AROUND MIDNIGHT
WEST -- 03 AM EAST. WINDS SHIFT WRLY BEHIND THE FRNT AND PRECIP
ENDS MOST AREAS BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...00Z/1 TAFS POSTED WITH SOME UNCERTAIN TIMING OF
POTENTIALLY STRONGER TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST STORM
VCNTY KRDG HAD A WEST GUST 38 KT AT 2227Z.

IFR CIGS NW OF THE QSTRY FRONT, ESPECIALLY KABE. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CIGS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY NE-SE NW OF THE QSTRY FNT AND SOUTHERLY
GUSTING TO 15 KT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL WINDS TURNING WNW
OVERNIGHT POST LATE NIGHT CFP.

TUE...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4500 FT WITH GUSTY W WINDS 20-25 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND
THEN WINDS AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER
TUE. AREAS OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PHL EQMT BEING CHECKED EXTERNAL TO NWS. OUTAGE SINCE ABOUT 557P.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 752
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 752
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA
EQUIPMENT...752





000
FXUS61 KPHI 202352
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
752 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL MERGE WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUSH OUT TO SEA BY MORNING. SEVERAL
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
745 PM: NEW SELS WATCH-SVR THUNDERSTORM 092 COMING UP FOR NE PA
AND NW NJ.

UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST SVR BUT UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
INCREASING ACTIVITY UPSTREAM.

WE MAY EVENTUALLY EXTEND THE TORN WATCH TIL 05Z PENDING ACTIVITY
AT 0135Z ASSESSMENT.


KRDG HAD 38 KT AT 2227Z. VERY GOOD FOR A SMALL STORM WITH ELEVATED
ROTATION AND PREVIOUS NORTHERLY FLOW.

QSTNRY FRONT JUST NW OF I95. STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ALONG
OR EAST OF THAT LATE THIS EVENING.

SPC CONTINUES THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE WRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE REGION
UNTIL 10 PM. MORE SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH FROPA AROUND MIDNIGHT
WEST -- 03 AM EAST. WINDS SHIFT WRLY BEHIND THE FRNT AND PRECIP
ENDS MOST AREAS BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...00Z/1 TAFS POSTED WITH SOME UNCERTAIN TIMING OF
POTENTIALLY STRONGER TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST STORM
VCNTY KRDG HAD A WEST GUST 38 KT AT 2227Z.

IFR CIGS NW OF THE QSTRY FRONT, ESPECIALLY KABE. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CIGS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY NE-SE NW OF THE QSTRY FNT AND SOUTHERLY
GUSTING TO 15 KT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL WINDS TURNING WNW
OVERNIGHT POST LATE NIGHT CFP.

TUE...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4500 FT WITH GUSTY W WINDS 20-25 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND
THEN WINDS AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER
TUE. AREAS OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
PHL EQMT BEING CHECKED EXTERNAL TO NWS. OUTAGE SINCE ABOUT 557P.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 752
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 752
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA
EQUIPMENT...752




000
FXUS61 KPHI 202241
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
641 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL MERGE WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUSH OUT TO SEA BY MORNING. SEVERAL
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
630 PM ESTF: NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 455 PM ESTF. THE HRRR CONTINUES
THE DEVELOPMENT SO WE HOLD ONTO THAT FOR NOW AND THE 12Z SPCWRF IS
NOT TOO BAD, THOUGH IT APPEARS A TOUCH FAST.

KRDG HAD 38 KT AT 2227Z. VERY GOOD FOR A SMALL STORM WITH ELEVATED
ROATION AND PREVIOUS NORTHERLY FLOW.

QSTNRY FRONT JUST NW OF I95. STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ALONG
OR EAST OF THAT LATE THIS EVENING.

SPC CONTINUES THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE WRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE REGION
UNTIL 10 PM. MORE SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH FROPA AROUND MIDNIGHT
WEST -- 03 AM EAST. WINDS SHIFT WRLY BEHIND THE FRNT AND PRECIP
ENDS MOST AREAS BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...TAFS HAVE UPDATED WITH SOME TIMING OF POTENTIALLY
STRONGER TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST STORM VCNTY KRDG
HAD A WEST GUST 38 KT AT 2227Z.

IFR CIGS NW OF THE QSTRY FRONT, ESPECIALLY KABE. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CIGS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY NE-SE NW OF THE QSTRY FNT AND SOUTHERLY
GUSTING TO 15 KT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL WINDS TURNING WNW
OVERNIGHT POST LATE NIGHT CFP.

TUE...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4500 FT WITH GUSTY W WINDS 20-25 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND
THEN WINDS AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER
TUE. AREAS OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WILL TRY TO RESTORE PHL NWR SHORTLY. ITS OUTAGE SINCE ABOUT 557P.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 641 PM
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 641PM
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 202241
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
641 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL MERGE WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUSH OUT TO SEA BY MORNING. SEVERAL
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
630 PM ESTF: NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 455 PM ESTF. THE HRRR CONTINUES
THE DEVELOPMENT SO WE HOLD ONTO THAT FOR NOW AND THE 12Z SPCWRF IS
NOT TOO BAD, THOUGH IT APPEARS A TOUCH FAST.

KRDG HAD 38 KT AT 2227Z. VERY GOOD FOR A SMALL STORM WITH ELEVATED
ROATION AND PREVIOUS NORTHERLY FLOW.

QSTNRY FRONT JUST NW OF I95. STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ALONG
OR EAST OF THAT LATE THIS EVENING.

SPC CONTINUES THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE WRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE REGION
UNTIL 10 PM. MORE SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH FROPA AROUND MIDNIGHT
WEST -- 03 AM EAST. WINDS SHIFT WRLY BEHIND THE FRNT AND PRECIP
ENDS MOST AREAS BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...TAFS HAVE UPDATED WITH SOME TIMING OF POTENTIALLY
STRONGER TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST STORM VCNTY KRDG
HAD A WEST GUST 38 KT AT 2227Z.

IFR CIGS NW OF THE QSTRY FRONT, ESPECIALLY KABE. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CIGS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY NE-SE NW OF THE QSTRY FNT AND SOUTHERLY
GUSTING TO 15 KT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL WINDS TURNING WNW
OVERNIGHT POST LATE NIGHT CFP.

TUE...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4500 FT WITH GUSTY W WINDS 20-25 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND
THEN WINDS AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER
TUE. AREAS OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WILL TRY TO RESTORE PHL NWR SHORTLY. ITS OUTAGE SINCE ABOUT 557P.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 641 PM
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 641PM
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 202241
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
641 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL MERGE WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUSH OUT TO SEA BY MORNING. SEVERAL
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
630 PM ESTF: NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 455 PM ESTF. THE HRRR CONTINUES
THE DEVELOPMENT SO WE HOLD ONTO THAT FOR NOW AND THE 12Z SPCWRF IS
NOT TOO BAD, THOUGH IT APPEARS A TOUCH FAST.

KRDG HAD 38 KT AT 2227Z. VERY GOOD FOR A SMALL STORM WITH ELEVATED
ROATION AND PREVIOUS NORTHERLY FLOW.

QSTNRY FRONT JUST NW OF I95. STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ALONG
OR EAST OF THAT LATE THIS EVENING.

SPC CONTINUES THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE WRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE REGION
UNTIL 10 PM. MORE SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH FROPA AROUND MIDNIGHT
WEST -- 03 AM EAST. WINDS SHIFT WRLY BEHIND THE FRNT AND PRECIP
ENDS MOST AREAS BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...TAFS HAVE UPDATED WITH SOME TIMING OF POTENTIALLY
STRONGER TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST STORM VCNTY KRDG
HAD A WEST GUST 38 KT AT 2227Z.

IFR CIGS NW OF THE QSTRY FRONT, ESPECIALLY KABE. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CIGS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY NE-SE NW OF THE QSTRY FNT AND SOUTHERLY
GUSTING TO 15 KT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL WINDS TURNING WNW
OVERNIGHT POST LATE NIGHT CFP.

TUE...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4500 FT WITH GUSTY W WINDS 20-25 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND
THEN WINDS AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER
TUE. AREAS OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WILL TRY TO RESTORE PHL NWR SHORTLY. ITS OUTAGE SINCE ABOUT 557P.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 641 PM
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 641PM
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 202241
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
641 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL MERGE WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUSH OUT TO SEA BY MORNING. SEVERAL
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
630 PM ESTF: NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 455 PM ESTF. THE HRRR CONTINUES
THE DEVELOPMENT SO WE HOLD ONTO THAT FOR NOW AND THE 12Z SPCWRF IS
NOT TOO BAD, THOUGH IT APPEARS A TOUCH FAST.

KRDG HAD 38 KT AT 2227Z. VERY GOOD FOR A SMALL STORM WITH ELEVATED
ROATION AND PREVIOUS NORTHERLY FLOW.

QSTNRY FRONT JUST NW OF I95. STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ALONG
OR EAST OF THAT LATE THIS EVENING.

SPC CONTINUES THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE WRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE REGION
UNTIL 10 PM. MORE SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH FROPA AROUND MIDNIGHT
WEST -- 03 AM EAST. WINDS SHIFT WRLY BEHIND THE FRNT AND PRECIP
ENDS MOST AREAS BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...TAFS HAVE UPDATED WITH SOME TIMING OF POTENTIALLY
STRONGER TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST STORM VCNTY KRDG
HAD A WEST GUST 38 KT AT 2227Z.

IFR CIGS NW OF THE QSTRY FRONT, ESPECIALLY KABE. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CIGS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY NE-SE NW OF THE QSTRY FNT AND SOUTHERLY
GUSTING TO 15 KT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL WINDS TURNING WNW
OVERNIGHT POST LATE NIGHT CFP.

TUE...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4500 FT WITH GUSTY W WINDS 20-25 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND
THEN WINDS AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER
TUE. AREAS OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
WILL TRY TO RESTORE PHL NWR SHORTLY. ITS OUTAGE SINCE ABOUT 557P.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 641 PM
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 641PM
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA
EQUIPMENT...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 202229
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
629 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL MERGE WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUSH OUT TO SEA BY MORNING. SEVERAL
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
630 PM ESTF: NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 455 PM ESTF...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE ON STRONG TSTMS IS A LITTLE LESS THAN WHAT I`D LIKE,
BASED ON DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH 6 PM. THE HRRR CONTINUES THE
DEVELOPMENT SO WE HOLD ONTO THAT FOR NOW AND THE 12Z SPCWRF IS
NOT TOO BAD, THOUGH IT APPEARS A TOUCH FAST.

QSTNRY FRONT JUST NW OF I95. STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ALONG
OR EAST OF THAT LATE THIS EVENING.

SPC CONTINUES THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE WRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE REGION
UNTIL 10 PM. MORE SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH FROPA AROUND MIDNIGHT
WEST -- 03 AM EAST. WINDS SHIFT WRLY BEHIND THE FRNT AND PRECIP
ENDS MOST AREAS BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...TAFS HAVE UPDATED WITH SOME TIMING OF POTENTIALLY
STRONGER TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST STORM NOW AT KRDG.

IFR CIGS NW OF THE QSTRY FRONT, ESPECIALLY KABE. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CIGS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY NE-SE NW OF THE QSTRY FNT AND SOUTHERLY
GUSTING TO 15 KT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL WINDS TURNING WNW
OVERNIGHT POST LATE NIGHT CFP.

TUE...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4500 FT WITH GUSTY W WINDS 20-25 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND
THEN WINDS AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER
TUE. AREAS OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&
.EQUIPMENT...
WILL TRY TO RESTORE PHL NWR SHORTLY. ITS OUTAGE SINCE ABOUT 557P.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 630
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 630
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA
EQUIPMENT...DRAG 630





000
FXUS61 KPHI 202229
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
629 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL MERGE WITH AN
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT AND PUSH OUT TO SEA BY MORNING. SEVERAL
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
630 PM ESTF: NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 455 PM ESTF...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE ON STRONG TSTMS IS A LITTLE LESS THAN WHAT I`D LIKE,
BASED ON DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH 6 PM. THE HRRR CONTINUES THE
DEVELOPMENT SO WE HOLD ONTO THAT FOR NOW AND THE 12Z SPCWRF IS
NOT TOO BAD, THOUGH IT APPEARS A TOUCH FAST.

QSTNRY FRONT JUST NW OF I95. STRONGEST STORMS ANTICIPATED ALONG
OR EAST OF THAT LATE THIS EVENING.

SPC CONTINUES THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE WRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE REGION
UNTIL 10 PM. MORE SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH FROPA AROUND MIDNIGHT
WEST -- 03 AM EAST. WINDS SHIFT WRLY BEHIND THE FRNT AND PRECIP
ENDS MOST AREAS BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...TAFS HAVE UPDATED WITH SOME TIMING OF POTENTIALLY
STRONGER TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST STORM NOW AT KRDG.

IFR CIGS NW OF THE QSTRY FRONT, ESPECIALLY KABE. ELSEWHERE, VFR
CIGS WITH A PERIOD OF IFR CONDS IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY NE-SE NW OF THE QSTRY FNT AND SOUTHERLY
GUSTING TO 15 KT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALL WINDS TURNING WNW
OVERNIGHT POST LATE NIGHT CFP.

TUE...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4500 FT WITH GUSTY W WINDS 20-25 KT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND
THEN WINDS AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER
TUE. AREAS OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&
.EQUIPMENT...
WILL TRY TO RESTORE PHL NWR SHORTLY. ITS OUTAGE SINCE ABOUT 557P.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 630
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA 630
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA/O`HARA
EQUIPMENT...DRAG 630




000
FXUS61 KPHI 202059
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
459 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
455 PM ESTF: HAVE UPDATED POPS/TIMING AND WORDING OF SVR THREAT
THIS EVENING. VERY LITTLE THREAT PRIOR TO 00Z FOR THE REGION SE OF
I-95.

MORE LATER.

WARM FRONT HAS MOVED UP ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES. WARM SECTOR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE PA/SRN NJ. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ACROSS THE NORTH. WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. TSTMS WILL LIKELY FIRE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AREAS THIS EVENING AND TRACK EWRD EARLY
TONIGHT.

SPC HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE WRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE
REGION UNTIL 10 PM. MORE SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH FROPA AROUND
MIDNIGHT W -- 03 AM E. WINDS SHIFT WRLY BEHIND THE FRNT AND PRECIP
ENDS MOST AREAS BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...TAFS ARE UPDATING NEXT HOUR OR SO FOR TIMING OF
STRONG TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST STORM NEARING KRDG AT
21Z.

DIFFICULT FCST FOR TAF SITES WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE MORNING AND NOW SLOW IMPROVEMENT FOR THE SRN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE POST WARM FRONT MIXING TAKING PLACE ACROSS SRN
NJ AND DE/SE PA WITH VFR IN MANY AREAS. MVFR/IFR ACROSS KRDG-KPNE
AND NORTH WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT THRU THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MANY AREAS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS
EXPECTED...LOW CONFID IN TIMING...AREAS ATTM.

TUE...VFR WITH GUSTY W WINDS UP TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND
THEN WINDS AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER
TUE. AREAS OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA/DRAG 459P
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA 459P
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 202059
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
459 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
455 PM ESTF: HAVE UPDATED POPS/TIMING AND WORDING OF SVR THREAT
THIS EVENING. VERY LITTLE THREAT PRIOR TO 00Z FOR THE REGION SE OF
I-95.

MORE LATER.

WARM FRONT HAS MOVED UP ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES. WARM SECTOR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE PA/SRN NJ. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ACROSS THE NORTH. WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. TSTMS WILL LIKELY FIRE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AREAS THIS EVENING AND TRACK EWRD EARLY
TONIGHT.

SPC HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE WRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE
REGION UNTIL 10 PM. MORE SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH FROPA AROUND
MIDNIGHT W -- 03 AM E. WINDS SHIFT WRLY BEHIND THE FRNT AND PRECIP
ENDS MOST AREAS BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...TAFS ARE UPDATING NEXT HOUR OR SO FOR TIMING OF
STRONG TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST STORM NEARING KRDG AT
21Z.

DIFFICULT FCST FOR TAF SITES WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE MORNING AND NOW SLOW IMPROVEMENT FOR THE SRN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE POST WARM FRONT MIXING TAKING PLACE ACROSS SRN
NJ AND DE/SE PA WITH VFR IN MANY AREAS. MVFR/IFR ACROSS KRDG-KPNE
AND NORTH WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT THRU THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MANY AREAS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS
EXPECTED...LOW CONFID IN TIMING...AREAS ATTM.

TUE...VFR WITH GUSTY W WINDS UP TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND
THEN WINDS AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER
TUE. AREAS OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA/DRAG 459P
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA 459P
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 202059
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
459 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
455 PM ESTF: HAVE UPDATED POPS/TIMING AND WORDING OF SVR THREAT
THIS EVENING. VERY LITTLE THREAT PRIOR TO 00Z FOR THE REGION SE OF
I-95.

MORE LATER.

WARM FRONT HAS MOVED UP ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES. WARM SECTOR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE PA/SRN NJ. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ACROSS THE NORTH. WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. TSTMS WILL LIKELY FIRE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AREAS THIS EVENING AND TRACK EWRD EARLY
TONIGHT.

SPC HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE WRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE
REGION UNTIL 10 PM. MORE SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH FROPA AROUND
MIDNIGHT W -- 03 AM E. WINDS SHIFT WRLY BEHIND THE FRNT AND PRECIP
ENDS MOST AREAS BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...TAFS ARE UPDATING NEXT HOUR OR SO FOR TIMING OF
STRONG TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST STORM NEARING KRDG AT
21Z.

DIFFICULT FCST FOR TAF SITES WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE MORNING AND NOW SLOW IMPROVEMENT FOR THE SRN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE POST WARM FRONT MIXING TAKING PLACE ACROSS SRN
NJ AND DE/SE PA WITH VFR IN MANY AREAS. MVFR/IFR ACROSS KRDG-KPNE
AND NORTH WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT THRU THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MANY AREAS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS
EXPECTED...LOW CONFID IN TIMING...AREAS ATTM.

TUE...VFR WITH GUSTY W WINDS UP TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND
THEN WINDS AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER
TUE. AREAS OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA/DRAG 459P
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA 459P
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 202059
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
459 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
455 PM ESTF: HAVE UPDATED POPS/TIMING AND WORDING OF SVR THREAT
THIS EVENING. VERY LITTLE THREAT PRIOR TO 00Z FOR THE REGION SE OF
I-95.

MORE LATER.

WARM FRONT HAS MOVED UP ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES. WARM SECTOR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE PA/SRN NJ. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ACROSS THE NORTH. WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. TSTMS WILL LIKELY FIRE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AREAS THIS EVENING AND TRACK EWRD EARLY
TONIGHT.

SPC HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE WRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE
REGION UNTIL 10 PM. MORE SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH FROPA AROUND
MIDNIGHT W -- 03 AM E. WINDS SHIFT WRLY BEHIND THE FRNT AND PRECIP
ENDS MOST AREAS BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...TAFS ARE UPDATING NEXT HOUR OR SO FOR TIMING OF
STRONG TSTMS AND GUSTY WINDS PER HRRR. FIRST STORM NEARING KRDG AT
21Z.

DIFFICULT FCST FOR TAF SITES WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE MORNING AND NOW SLOW IMPROVEMENT FOR THE SRN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE POST WARM FRONT MIXING TAKING PLACE ACROSS SRN
NJ AND DE/SE PA WITH VFR IN MANY AREAS. MVFR/IFR ACROSS KRDG-KPNE
AND NORTH WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT THRU THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MANY AREAS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS
EXPECTED...LOW CONFID IN TIMING...AREAS ATTM.

TUE...VFR WITH GUSTY W WINDS UP TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND
THEN WINDS AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER
TUE. AREAS OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA/DRAG 459P
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA 459P
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 201943
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED UP ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES. WARM SECTOR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE PA/SRN NJ. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ACROSS THE NORTH. WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. TSTMS WILL LIKELY FIRE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AREAS THIS EVENING AND TRACK EWRD EARLY
TONIGHT.

SPC HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE WRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE
REGION UNTIL 10 PM. MORE SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH FROPA AROUND
MIDNIGHT W -- 03 AM E. WINDS SHIFT WRLY BEHIND THE FRNT AND PRECIP
ENDS MOST AREAS BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

DIFFICULT FCST FOR TAF SITES WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE MORNING AND NOW SLOW IMPROVEMENT FOR THE SRN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE POST WARM FRONT MIXING TAKING PLACE ACROSS SRN
NJ AND DE/SE PA WITH VFR IN MANY AREAS. MVFR/IFR ACROSS KRDG-KPNE
AND NORTH WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT THRU THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MANY AREAS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS
EXPECTED...LOW CONFID IN TIMING...AREAS ATTM.

TUE...VFR WITH GUSTY W WINDS UP TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND
THEN WINDS AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER
TUE. AREAS OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 201943
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED UP ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES. WARM SECTOR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE PA/SRN NJ. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ACROSS THE NORTH. WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. TSTMS WILL LIKELY FIRE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AREAS THIS EVENING AND TRACK EWRD EARLY
TONIGHT.

SPC HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE WRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE
REGION UNTIL 10 PM. MORE SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH FROPA AROUND
MIDNIGHT W -- 03 AM E. WINDS SHIFT WRLY BEHIND THE FRNT AND PRECIP
ENDS MOST AREAS BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

DIFFICULT FCST FOR TAF SITES WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE MORNING AND NOW SLOW IMPROVEMENT FOR THE SRN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE POST WARM FRONT MIXING TAKING PLACE ACROSS SRN
NJ AND DE/SE PA WITH VFR IN MANY AREAS. MVFR/IFR ACROSS KRDG-KPNE
AND NORTH WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT THRU THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MANY AREAS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS
EXPECTED...LOW CONFID IN TIMING...AREAS ATTM.

TUE...VFR WITH GUSTY W WINDS UP TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND
THEN WINDS AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER
TUE. AREAS OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 201943
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY PUSHING NORTHWARD THROUGH OUR REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT HAS MOVED UP ACROSS THE NRN COUNTIES. WARM SECTOR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE PA/SRN NJ. LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG ACROSS THE NORTH. WIDE RANGE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. TSTMS WILL LIKELY FIRE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AREAS THIS EVENING AND TRACK EWRD EARLY
TONIGHT.

SPC HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR THE WRN/SWRN PARTS OF THE
REGION UNTIL 10 PM. MORE SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS WITH FROPA AROUND
MIDNIGHT W -- 03 AM E. WINDS SHIFT WRLY BEHIND THE FRNT AND PRECIP
ENDS MOST AREAS BY DAWN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS CANADA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SE STATES. RATHER STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CREATE
MODERATE/GUSTY WINDS TUE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
MOST AREAS. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA
WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH THE WEEK, SETTLING OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SPINNING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND WE WILL SEE SHOWERS CROSS
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH DOWN THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
COLDER AIR LOCATED ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SNOW FLAKES TO FALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY THURSDAY EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS TO LACK MUCH MOISTURE. THEREFORE, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS MAY OCCUR AS THE MOISTURE LESSENS AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE
SYSTEM GETS WILL DICTATE WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE SHOWERS PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE INCLUDED JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH A DRY PERIOD EXPECTED ACROSS OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

DIFFICULT FCST FOR TAF SITES WITH HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE MORNING AND NOW SLOW IMPROVEMENT FOR THE SRN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE POST WARM FRONT MIXING TAKING PLACE ACROSS SRN
NJ AND DE/SE PA WITH VFR IN MANY AREAS. MVFR/IFR ACROSS KRDG-KPNE
AND NORTH WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT THRU THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MANY AREAS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS
EXPECTED...LOW CONFID IN TIMING...AREAS ATTM.

TUE...VFR WITH GUSTY W WINDS UP TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SUB-VFR SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OCEAN AREAS THE REST OF
TODAY...TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. SCA FOR SEAS INTO TONIGHT AND
THEN WINDS AND SEAS TUE. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT AND THEN FAIR WEATHER
TUE. AREAS OF FOG INTO TONIGHT.

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS DEL BAY ATTM WITH PROBABLE HIGHER WAVES
ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER SEAS UP ACROSS
THE SRN PART OF THE BAY. WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR AWHILE INTO
THE EVENING BUT DROP IT ACROSS NRN DEL BAY. IT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED
THERE AGAIN FOR WINDS G25 FOR TUESDAY. SCT TSTMS TONIGHT BUT FAIR
WEATHER FOR TUE.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...SEAS WILL INCREASE AND NEAR 5 FEET DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY. WINDS WILL GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME
ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

FRIDAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

SATURDAY...SUB- ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE AREA
WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 201507
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1107 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A WARM
FRONT FROM THE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
EDGE NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED FOR LATE THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO OUR REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST DURING FRIDAY AND THE COMING WEEKEND AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WARM FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
DECENT SURGE OF SE/E WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE BEING REPLACED
WITH A LIGHTER WIND MOSTLY FROM THE S BEHIND IT. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE STEADY RAINS ARE MOVING UP INTO THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NE NJ
ATTM. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED BY VIS SAT ACROSS
MD/NRN VA. WE EXPECT BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SRN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

SPC HAS UPDATED THE DAY1 OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE MUCH OF OUR CWA IN AN
ENHANCED THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE AIRMASS
WILL HEAT SUFFICIENTLY THIS AFTERNOON TO REALIZE SOME DECENT CAPE
VALUES (OVER 2000 J/KG ON THE 06Z NAM FOR THE DEL VALLEY). THIS
CAPE COMBINED WITH SOME MODELS LOW LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR WILL LIKELY
ORGANIZE SOME SVR WEATHER FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. STAY UPDATED WITH
THE LATEST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING
THE EARLY EVENING, AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WE
EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO HAVE
DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. THESE SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALL
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH AFFECTING MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADA`S MARITIME PROVINCES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE OVERALL TRENDS KEEP US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE FORECAST PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON READINGS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY WHEN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OVER OUR REGION.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION FOR THAT PERIOD OF TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOW FLAKES TOWARD THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON THURSDAY BUT
IT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WE HAVE
MENTIONED ONLY A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND. WE HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

IMPROVEMENT...SLOW IMPROVEMENT...FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE WARM FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW CONFID IN WHAT WILL
HAPPEN RE: CIGS ONCE THE FRONT PASSES. VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS
POSSIBLE ACCORDING TO SOME OF THE RECENT GUIDANCE. THE SE FLOW
WILL LIKELY PROMOTE SOME CIGS ACROSS KACY WITH THE COLD WATER
OFFSHORE. VARIABLE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. FRQ AMDS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAFS THIS AFTERNOON.

LOWER CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE ON
WHEN/WHERE THEY OCCUR IS STILL LOW SO WE DID NOT INCLUDE THEM.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. AGAIN, THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WE DID NOT INCLUDE THEM.

GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AND BECOME
GUSTY ONE AGAIN.

WE HAVE KEPT LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS THERE
REMAINS 50-55 KT WINDS AROUND 1,000-2,000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS MAY REDUCE CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES INTO THE
MVFR RANGE AT TIMES.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND FOR DEL
BAY AS GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN. AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE AREA, WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, SO WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING,
AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOME LOW END MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN NJ SHORE
AREAS. CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER TIDAL FLOODING DECREASING SINCE THE
WINDS BECOMING MORE OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON/PO
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PO





000
FXUS61 KPHI 201507
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1107 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A WARM
FRONT FROM THE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
EDGE NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED FOR LATE THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO OUR REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST DURING FRIDAY AND THE COMING WEEKEND AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WARM FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
DECENT SURGE OF SE/E WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE BEING REPLACED
WITH A LIGHTER WIND MOSTLY FROM THE S BEHIND IT. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE STEADY RAINS ARE MOVING UP INTO THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NE NJ
ATTM. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED BY VIS SAT ACROSS
MD/NRN VA. WE EXPECT BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SRN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

SPC HAS UPDATED THE DAY1 OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE MUCH OF OUR CWA IN AN
ENHANCED THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE AIRMASS
WILL HEAT SUFFICIENTLY THIS AFTERNOON TO REALIZE SOME DECENT CAPE
VALUES (OVER 2000 J/KG ON THE 06Z NAM FOR THE DEL VALLEY). THIS
CAPE COMBINED WITH SOME MODELS LOW LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR WILL LIKELY
ORGANIZE SOME SVR WEATHER FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. STAY UPDATED WITH
THE LATEST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING
THE EARLY EVENING, AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WE
EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO HAVE
DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. THESE SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALL
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH AFFECTING MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADA`S MARITIME PROVINCES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE OVERALL TRENDS KEEP US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE FORECAST PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON READINGS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY WHEN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OVER OUR REGION.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION FOR THAT PERIOD OF TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOW FLAKES TOWARD THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON THURSDAY BUT
IT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WE HAVE
MENTIONED ONLY A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND. WE HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

IMPROVEMENT...SLOW IMPROVEMENT...FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE WARM FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW CONFID IN WHAT WILL
HAPPEN RE: CIGS ONCE THE FRONT PASSES. VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS
POSSIBLE ACCORDING TO SOME OF THE RECENT GUIDANCE. THE SE FLOW
WILL LIKELY PROMOTE SOME CIGS ACROSS KACY WITH THE COLD WATER
OFFSHORE. VARIABLE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. FRQ AMDS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAFS THIS AFTERNOON.

LOWER CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE ON
WHEN/WHERE THEY OCCUR IS STILL LOW SO WE DID NOT INCLUDE THEM.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. AGAIN, THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WE DID NOT INCLUDE THEM.

GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AND BECOME
GUSTY ONE AGAIN.

WE HAVE KEPT LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS THERE
REMAINS 50-55 KT WINDS AROUND 1,000-2,000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS MAY REDUCE CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES INTO THE
MVFR RANGE AT TIMES.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND FOR DEL
BAY AS GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN. AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE AREA, WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, SO WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING,
AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOME LOW END MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN NJ SHORE
AREAS. CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER TIDAL FLOODING DECREASING SINCE THE
WINDS BECOMING MORE OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON/PO
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PO





000
FXUS61 KPHI 201507
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1107 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A WARM
FRONT FROM THE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
EDGE NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED FOR LATE THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO OUR REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST DURING FRIDAY AND THE COMING WEEKEND AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WARM FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
DECENT SURGE OF SE/E WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE BEING REPLACED
WITH A LIGHTER WIND MOSTLY FROM THE S BEHIND IT. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE STEADY RAINS ARE MOVING UP INTO THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NE NJ
ATTM. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED BY VIS SAT ACROSS
MD/NRN VA. WE EXPECT BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SRN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

SPC HAS UPDATED THE DAY1 OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE MUCH OF OUR CWA IN AN
ENHANCED THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE AIRMASS
WILL HEAT SUFFICIENTLY THIS AFTERNOON TO REALIZE SOME DECENT CAPE
VALUES (OVER 2000 J/KG ON THE 06Z NAM FOR THE DEL VALLEY). THIS
CAPE COMBINED WITH SOME MODELS LOW LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR WILL LIKELY
ORGANIZE SOME SVR WEATHER FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. STAY UPDATED WITH
THE LATEST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING
THE EARLY EVENING, AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WE
EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO HAVE
DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. THESE SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALL
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH AFFECTING MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADA`S MARITIME PROVINCES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE OVERALL TRENDS KEEP US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE FORECAST PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON READINGS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY WHEN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OVER OUR REGION.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION FOR THAT PERIOD OF TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOW FLAKES TOWARD THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON THURSDAY BUT
IT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WE HAVE
MENTIONED ONLY A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND. WE HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

IMPROVEMENT...SLOW IMPROVEMENT...FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE WARM FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW CONFID IN WHAT WILL
HAPPEN RE: CIGS ONCE THE FRONT PASSES. VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS
POSSIBLE ACCORDING TO SOME OF THE RECENT GUIDANCE. THE SE FLOW
WILL LIKELY PROMOTE SOME CIGS ACROSS KACY WITH THE COLD WATER
OFFSHORE. VARIABLE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. FRQ AMDS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAFS THIS AFTERNOON.

LOWER CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE ON
WHEN/WHERE THEY OCCUR IS STILL LOW SO WE DID NOT INCLUDE THEM.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. AGAIN, THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WE DID NOT INCLUDE THEM.

GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AND BECOME
GUSTY ONE AGAIN.

WE HAVE KEPT LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS THERE
REMAINS 50-55 KT WINDS AROUND 1,000-2,000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS MAY REDUCE CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES INTO THE
MVFR RANGE AT TIMES.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND FOR DEL
BAY AS GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN. AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE AREA, WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, SO WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING,
AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOME LOW END MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN NJ SHORE
AREAS. CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER TIDAL FLOODING DECREASING SINCE THE
WINDS BECOMING MORE OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON/PO
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 201507
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1107 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A WARM
FRONT FROM THE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
EDGE NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED FOR LATE THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO OUR REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST DURING FRIDAY AND THE COMING WEEKEND AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WARM FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. THE
DECENT SURGE OF SE/E WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE BEING REPLACED
WITH A LIGHTER WIND MOSTLY FROM THE S BEHIND IT. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE STEADY RAINS ARE MOVING UP INTO THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NE NJ
ATTM. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED BY VIS SAT ACROSS
MD/NRN VA. WE EXPECT BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SRN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

SPC HAS UPDATED THE DAY1 OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE MUCH OF OUR CWA IN AN
ENHANCED THREAT FOR SVR WEATHER. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE AIRMASS
WILL HEAT SUFFICIENTLY THIS AFTERNOON TO REALIZE SOME DECENT CAPE
VALUES (OVER 2000 J/KG ON THE 06Z NAM FOR THE DEL VALLEY). THIS
CAPE COMBINED WITH SOME MODELS LOW LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR WILL LIKELY
ORGANIZE SOME SVR WEATHER FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. STAY UPDATED WITH
THE LATEST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING
THE EARLY EVENING, AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WE
EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO HAVE
DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. THESE SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALL
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH AFFECTING MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADA`S MARITIME PROVINCES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE OVERALL TRENDS KEEP US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE FORECAST PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON READINGS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY WHEN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OVER OUR REGION.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION FOR THAT PERIOD OF TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOW FLAKES TOWARD THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON THURSDAY BUT
IT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WE HAVE
MENTIONED ONLY A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND. WE HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

IMPROVEMENT...SLOW IMPROVEMENT...FROM SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE WARM FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. LOW CONFID IN WHAT WILL
HAPPEN RE: CIGS ONCE THE FRONT PASSES. VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS
POSSIBLE ACCORDING TO SOME OF THE RECENT GUIDANCE. THE SE FLOW
WILL LIKELY PROMOTE SOME CIGS ACROSS KACY WITH THE COLD WATER
OFFSHORE. VARIABLE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN PLACE. FRQ AMDS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAFS THIS AFTERNOON.

LOWER CONDITIONS AND A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE ON
WHEN/WHERE THEY OCCUR IS STILL LOW SO WE DID NOT INCLUDE THEM.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. AGAIN, THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WE DID NOT INCLUDE THEM.

GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AND BECOME
GUSTY ONE AGAIN.

WE HAVE KEPT LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS THERE
REMAINS 50-55 KT WINDS AROUND 1,000-2,000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS MAY REDUCE CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES INTO THE
MVFR RANGE AT TIMES.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND FOR DEL
BAY AS GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN. AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE AREA, WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, SO WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING,
AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SOME LOW END MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN NJ SHORE
AREAS. CONDITIONS FOR FURTHER TIDAL FLOODING DECREASING SINCE THE
WINDS BECOMING MORE OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...PO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON/PO
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 200854
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
454 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A WARM
FRONT FROM THE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
EDGE NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED FOR LATE THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO OUR REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST DURING FRIDAY AND THE COMING WEEKEND AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA
AND IS SLOWLY TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, A
LARGE AREA OF OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING, ENHANCED BY
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES, THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL, WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. THIS
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO SOME URBANIZED/POOR DRAINAGE
TYPE FLOODING AND PONDING ON ROADWAYS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE, THEN PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA LATER IN
THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE WARM FRONT MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA,
AND WILL MOST LIKELY GET CAUGHT UP AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. OVERALL THERE SHOULD MOSTLY BE
A BREAK IN ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD VARY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS. NORTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY GET INTO
THE 50S AND 60S. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
MID-UPPER 70S, EVEN CLOSE TO 80 IN SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE SUN COMES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING
THE EARLY EVENING, AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WE
EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO HAVE
DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. THESE SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALL
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH AFFECTING MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADA`S MARITIME PROVINCES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE OVERALL TRENDS KEEP US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE FORECAST PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON READINGS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY WHEN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OVER OUR REGION.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION FOR THAT PERIOD OF TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOW FLAKES TOWARD THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON THURSDAY BUT
IT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WE HAVE
MENTIONED ONLY A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND. WE HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS RAINFALL IS MOVING
INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WE STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL THROUGH SUNRISE. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE DAY. ONCE IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP, THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTO THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. NORTH OF THE FRONT, LOWER CIGS WILL
CONTINUE LONGER, BUT WHERE THE FRONT DOES LIFT AND PASS THROUGH,
CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE ON WHEN/WHERE THEY OCCUR IS STILL
LOW SO WE DID NOT INCLUDE THEM.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. AGAIN, THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WE DID NOT INCLUDE THEM.

GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AND BECOME
GUSTY ONE AGAIN.

WE HAVE KEPT LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS THERE
REMAINS 50-55 KT WINDS AROUND 1,000-2,000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS MAY REDUCE CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES INTO THE
MVFR RANGE AT TIMES.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 10 AM. THE
STRONG WINDS FROM ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE MAKING THEIR WAY TO THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE BAY AND GUSTING AROUND 35-40 KNOTS AT SHIP
JOHN SHOAL AND BRANDYWINE SHOAL. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS UNTIL THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT BEGING TO SUBSIDE TOWARD
10 AM.

OTHERWISE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AS
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF A WARM FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA, WINDS SHOULD BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY- SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, BUT WE EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION ACROSS THE WATER TO PREVENT GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, SO
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD TO AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING, AND
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WERE AROUND +0.4 FEET ALONG THE OCEANFRONT
AROUND SUNDAY EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD
WAS JUST REACHED AT SANDY HOOK AND WATER LEVELS FELL ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF A FOOT BELOW THE THRESHOLD AT ATLANTIC CITY, CAPE MAY
AND LEWES.

THE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT
LIFTING SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION SHOULD CAUSE THE WIND DIRECTION
TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN TO THE SOUTH TODAY. THE CHANGE IN
WIND DIRECTION SHOULD TAKE PLACE LAST ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ON MONDAY MORNING ARE ABOUT 0.8 TO 0.9
FEET LOWER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT, DEPARTURES
OF +1.2 TO +1.4 FEET WOULD BE NEEDED TO CAUSE LOW END MINOR
FLOODING. DEPARTURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN +1.0 FOOT
AROUND HIGH TIDE, SO NO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST LEVELS FOR THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THERE COULD
BE SOME MINOR FLOODING THERE IF THE WIND SHIFT IS SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 200854
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
454 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A WARM
FRONT FROM THE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
EDGE NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED FOR LATE THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO OUR REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST DURING FRIDAY AND THE COMING WEEKEND AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA
AND IS SLOWLY TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, A
LARGE AREA OF OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING, ENHANCED BY
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES, THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL, WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. THIS
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO SOME URBANIZED/POOR DRAINAGE
TYPE FLOODING AND PONDING ON ROADWAYS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE, THEN PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA LATER IN
THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE WARM FRONT MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA,
AND WILL MOST LIKELY GET CAUGHT UP AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. OVERALL THERE SHOULD MOSTLY BE
A BREAK IN ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD VARY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS. NORTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY GET INTO
THE 50S AND 60S. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
MID-UPPER 70S, EVEN CLOSE TO 80 IN SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE SUN COMES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING
THE EARLY EVENING, AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WE
EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO HAVE
DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. THESE SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALL
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH AFFECTING MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADA`S MARITIME PROVINCES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE OVERALL TRENDS KEEP US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE FORECAST PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON READINGS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY WHEN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OVER OUR REGION.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION FOR THAT PERIOD OF TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOW FLAKES TOWARD THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON THURSDAY BUT
IT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WE HAVE
MENTIONED ONLY A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND. WE HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS RAINFALL IS MOVING
INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WE STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL THROUGH SUNRISE. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE DAY. ONCE IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP, THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTO THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. NORTH OF THE FRONT, LOWER CIGS WILL
CONTINUE LONGER, BUT WHERE THE FRONT DOES LIFT AND PASS THROUGH,
CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE ON WHEN/WHERE THEY OCCUR IS STILL
LOW SO WE DID NOT INCLUDE THEM.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. AGAIN, THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WE DID NOT INCLUDE THEM.

GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AND BECOME
GUSTY ONE AGAIN.

WE HAVE KEPT LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS THERE
REMAINS 50-55 KT WINDS AROUND 1,000-2,000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS MAY REDUCE CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES INTO THE
MVFR RANGE AT TIMES.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 10 AM. THE
STRONG WINDS FROM ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE MAKING THEIR WAY TO THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE BAY AND GUSTING AROUND 35-40 KNOTS AT SHIP
JOHN SHOAL AND BRANDYWINE SHOAL. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS UNTIL THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT BEGING TO SUBSIDE TOWARD
10 AM.

OTHERWISE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AS
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF A WARM FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA, WINDS SHOULD BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY- SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, BUT WE EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION ACROSS THE WATER TO PREVENT GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, SO
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD TO AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING, AND
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WERE AROUND +0.4 FEET ALONG THE OCEANFRONT
AROUND SUNDAY EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD
WAS JUST REACHED AT SANDY HOOK AND WATER LEVELS FELL ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF A FOOT BELOW THE THRESHOLD AT ATLANTIC CITY, CAPE MAY
AND LEWES.

THE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT
LIFTING SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION SHOULD CAUSE THE WIND DIRECTION
TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN TO THE SOUTH TODAY. THE CHANGE IN
WIND DIRECTION SHOULD TAKE PLACE LAST ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ON MONDAY MORNING ARE ABOUT 0.8 TO 0.9
FEET LOWER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT, DEPARTURES
OF +1.2 TO +1.4 FEET WOULD BE NEEDED TO CAUSE LOW END MINOR
FLOODING. DEPARTURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN +1.0 FOOT
AROUND HIGH TIDE, SO NO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST LEVELS FOR THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THERE COULD
BE SOME MINOR FLOODING THERE IF THE WIND SHIFT IS SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200854
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
454 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A WARM
FRONT FROM THE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
EDGE NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED FOR LATE THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO OUR REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST DURING FRIDAY AND THE COMING WEEKEND AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA
AND IS SLOWLY TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, A
LARGE AREA OF OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING, ENHANCED BY
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES, THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL, WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. THIS
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO SOME URBANIZED/POOR DRAINAGE
TYPE FLOODING AND PONDING ON ROADWAYS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE, THEN PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA LATER IN
THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE WARM FRONT MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA,
AND WILL MOST LIKELY GET CAUGHT UP AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. OVERALL THERE SHOULD MOSTLY BE
A BREAK IN ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD VARY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS. NORTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY GET INTO
THE 50S AND 60S. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
MID-UPPER 70S, EVEN CLOSE TO 80 IN SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE SUN COMES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING
THE EARLY EVENING, AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WE
EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO HAVE
DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. THESE SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALL
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH AFFECTING MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADA`S MARITIME PROVINCES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE OVERALL TRENDS KEEP US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE FORECAST PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON READINGS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY WHEN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OVER OUR REGION.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION FOR THAT PERIOD OF TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOW FLAKES TOWARD THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON THURSDAY BUT
IT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WE HAVE
MENTIONED ONLY A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND. WE HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS RAINFALL IS MOVING
INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WE STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL THROUGH SUNRISE. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE DAY. ONCE IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP, THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTO THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. NORTH OF THE FRONT, LOWER CIGS WILL
CONTINUE LONGER, BUT WHERE THE FRONT DOES LIFT AND PASS THROUGH,
CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE ON WHEN/WHERE THEY OCCUR IS STILL
LOW SO WE DID NOT INCLUDE THEM.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. AGAIN, THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WE DID NOT INCLUDE THEM.

GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AND BECOME
GUSTY ONE AGAIN.

WE HAVE KEPT LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS THERE
REMAINS 50-55 KT WINDS AROUND 1,000-2,000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS MAY REDUCE CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES INTO THE
MVFR RANGE AT TIMES.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WE HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 10 AM. THE
STRONG WINDS FROM ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE MAKING THEIR WAY TO THE
SURFACE ACROSS THE BAY AND GUSTING AROUND 35-40 KNOTS AT SHIP
JOHN SHOAL AND BRANDYWINE SHOAL. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS UNTIL THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT BEGING TO SUBSIDE TOWARD
10 AM.

OTHERWISE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AS
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF A WARM FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA, WINDS SHOULD BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY- SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS STRONG
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, BUT WE EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION ACROSS THE WATER TO PREVENT GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, SO
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD TO AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING, AND
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WERE AROUND +0.4 FEET ALONG THE OCEANFRONT
AROUND SUNDAY EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD
WAS JUST REACHED AT SANDY HOOK AND WATER LEVELS FELL ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF A FOOT BELOW THE THRESHOLD AT ATLANTIC CITY, CAPE MAY
AND LEWES.

THE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT
LIFTING SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION SHOULD CAUSE THE WIND DIRECTION
TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN TO THE SOUTH TODAY. THE CHANGE IN
WIND DIRECTION SHOULD TAKE PLACE LAST ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ON MONDAY MORNING ARE ABOUT 0.8 TO 0.9
FEET LOWER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT, DEPARTURES
OF +1.2 TO +1.4 FEET WOULD BE NEEDED TO CAUSE LOW END MINOR
FLOODING. DEPARTURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN +1.0 FOOT
AROUND HIGH TIDE, SO NO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST LEVELS FOR THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THERE COULD
BE SOME MINOR FLOODING THERE IF THE WIND SHIFT IS SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 200748
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A WARM
FRONT FROM THE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
EDGE NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED FOR LATE THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO OUR REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST DURING FRIDAY AND THE COMING WEEKEND AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA
AND IS SLOWLY TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, A
LARGE AREA OF OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING, ENHANCED BY
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES, THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL, WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. THIS
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO SOME URBANIZED/POOR DRAINAGE
TYPE FLOODING AND PONDING ON ROADWAYS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE, THEN PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA LATER IN
THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE WARM FRONT MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA,
AND WILL MOST LIKELY GET CAUGHT UP AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. OVERALL THERE SHOULD MOSTLY BE
A BREAK IN ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD VARY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS. NORTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY GET INTO
THE 50S AND 60S. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
MID-UPPER 70S, EVEN CLOSE TO 80 IN SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE SUN COMES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING
THE EARLY EVENING, AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WE
EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO HAVE
DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. THESE SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALL
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH AFFECTING MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADA`S MARITIME PROVINCES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE OVERALL TRENDS KEEP US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE FORECAST PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON READINGS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY WHEN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OVER OUR REGION.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION FOR THAT PERIOD OF TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOW FLAKES TOWARD THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON THURSDAY BUT
IT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WE HAVE
MENTIONED ONLY A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND. WE HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS RAINFALL IS MOVING
INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WE STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL THROUGH SUNRISE. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE DAY. ONCE IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP, THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTO THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. NORTH OF THE FRONT, LOWER CIGS WILL
CONTINUE LONGER, BUT WHERE THE FRONT DOES LIFT AND PASS THROUGH,
CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE ON WHEN/WHERE THEY OCCUR IS STILL
LOW SO WE DID NOT INCLUDE THEM.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. AGAIN, THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WE DID NOT INCLUDE THEM.

GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AND BECOME
GUSTY ONE AGAIN.

WE HAVE KEPT LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS THERE
REMAINS 50-55 KT WINDS AROUND 1,000-2,000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS MAY REDUCE CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES INTO THE
MVFR RANGE AT TIMES.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS AS GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA, WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY-
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE, BUT WE EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION ACROSS THE
WATER TO PREVENT GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, SO WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING, AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WERE AROUND +0.4 FEET ALONG THE OCEANFRONT
AROUND SUNDAY EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD
WAS JUST REACHED AT SANDY HOOK AND WATER LEVELS FELL ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF A FOOT BELOW THE THRESHOLD AT ATLANTIC CITY, CAPE MAY
AND LEWES.

THE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT
LIFTING SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION SHOULD CAUSE THE WIND DIRECTION
TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN TO THE SOUTH TODAY. THE CHANGE IN
WIND DIRECTION SHOULD TAKE PLACE LAST ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ON MONDAY MORNING ARE ABOUT 0.8 TO 0.9
FEET LOWER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT, DEPARTURES
OF +1.2 TO +1.4 FEET WOULD BE NEEDED TO CAUSE LOW END MINOR
FLOODING. DEPARTURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN +1.0 FOOT
AROUND HIGH TIDE, SO NO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST LEVELS FOR THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THERE COULD
BE SOME MINOR FLOODING THERE IF THE WIND SHIFT IS SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 200748
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 AM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PULL A WARM
FRONT FROM THE SOUTH INTO OUR REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
EDGE NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED FOR LATE THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO OUR REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND WEST DURING FRIDAY AND THE COMING WEEKEND AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WARM FRONT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA
AND IS SLOWLY TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, A
LARGE AREA OF OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING, ENHANCED BY
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES, THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL, WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. THIS
MODERATE/HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO SOME URBANIZED/POOR DRAINAGE
TYPE FLOODING AND PONDING ON ROADWAYS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE, THEN PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WE EXPECT THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA LATER IN
THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE WARM FRONT MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA,
AND WILL MOST LIKELY GET CAUGHT UP AND STALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY, AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN THE WARM
SECTOR INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF
THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL. OVERALL THERE SHOULD MOSTLY BE
A BREAK IN ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE MORE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD VARY DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS. NORTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY GET INTO
THE 50S AND 60S. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE
MID-UPPER 70S, EVEN CLOSE TO 80 IN SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY WHERE
THE SUN COMES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING
THE EARLY EVENING, AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WE
EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO HAVE
DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST DURING THE DAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. THESE SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ALL
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED TO OUR EAST BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUESDAY MORNING WITH A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH AFFECTING MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADA`S MARITIME PROVINCES ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
FOR THE WEEKEND, THE OVERALL TRENDS KEEP US UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD.

THE FORECAST PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON READINGS SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST, ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY WHEN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND ARE
ANTICIPATED.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD OVER OUR REGION.

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY AND IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGHOUT
OUR REGION FOR THAT PERIOD OF TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOW FLAKES TOWARD THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON THURSDAY BUT
IT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. WE HAVE
MENTIONED ONLY A LOW OR SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR OUR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND. WE HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE PERIOD
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS RAINFALL IS MOVING
INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WE STILL EXPECT A PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL THROUGH SUNRISE. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE DAY. ONCE IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP, THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN INTO THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. NORTH OF THE FRONT, LOWER CIGS WILL
CONTINUE LONGER, BUT WHERE THE FRONT DOES LIFT AND PASS THROUGH,
CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OR VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE ON WHEN/WHERE THEY OCCUR IS STILL
LOW SO WE DID NOT INCLUDE THEM.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. AGAIN, THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO WE DID NOT INCLUDE THEM.

GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATER TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AND BECOME
GUSTY ONE AGAIN.

WE HAVE KEPT LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS THERE
REMAINS 50-55 KT WINDS AROUND 1,000-2,000 FEET.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS MAY REDUCE CEILING AND VISIBILITY VALUES INTO THE
MVFR RANGE AT TIMES.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS AS GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA, WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY-
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE, BUT WE EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION ACROSS THE
WATER TO PREVENT GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, SO WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO
AROUND 9 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING, AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 6 FEET AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WERE AROUND +0.4 FEET ALONG THE OCEANFRONT
AROUND SUNDAY EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THE MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD
WAS JUST REACHED AT SANDY HOOK AND WATER LEVELS FELL ONE TO TWO
TENTHS OF A FOOT BELOW THE THRESHOLD AT ATLANTIC CITY, CAPE MAY
AND LEWES.

THE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT
LIFTING SLOWLY THROUGH OUR REGION SHOULD CAUSE THE WIND DIRECTION
TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN TO THE SOUTH TODAY. THE CHANGE IN
WIND DIRECTION SHOULD TAKE PLACE LAST ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ON MONDAY MORNING ARE ABOUT 0.8 TO 0.9
FEET LOWER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT, DEPARTURES
OF +1.2 TO +1.4 FEET WOULD BE NEEDED TO CAUSE LOW END MINOR
FLOODING. DEPARTURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN +1.0 FOOT
AROUND HIGH TIDE, SO NO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST LEVELS FOR THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST FOR THIS EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. THERE COULD
BE SOME MINOR FLOODING THERE IF THE WIND SHIFT IS SLOWER THAN
EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200135
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD MIDWEEK BEFORE
STALLING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND RAIN
WILL ARRIVE IN MANY AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A FEW HOURS
EARLIER FAR S. THE RAINS WILL BECOME STEADY OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH
AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT. QPF WILL BE
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH N/E TO A QUARTER INCH S/W.

PRECIP IS SLOWIY MOVG IN FROM THE SW AND WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. POPS ARE GOING UP
ACCORDINGLY.  OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A LARGE BATCH OF STEADY RAINS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND A DECENT QPF UP AROUND AN INCH OR SO WILL OCCUR IN MANY
AREAS. TOTALS UP TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCALIZED
AREAS. WHILE THESE TOTALS ARE ROBUST...THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA PRESENTLY SHOULD KEEP ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT BAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING  MAY OCCUR...BUT
THE LACK OF ANY WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL KEEP US FROM ISSUING ANY
FLOOD FLAGS ATTM. THE RAIN SHIELD WILL PULL TO THE NORTH BY LATE
MORNING AND PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY FOR THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVC N/W DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT BREAKS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

THE MOST RECENT SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
ACROSS MOST OF THE S/W 2/3RDS OF THE CWA FOR TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE AND THIS SHOULD
TOUCH OFF SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. CAPE VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ALSO...SINCE A SHORT BREAK IN THE CLOUDS
WILL HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON TEMPS. WE HAVE A MAV FCST
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN FEW AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER ONTARIO. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NEGATIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
LOW WHILE A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE NEAR CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF PA AND NJ MONDAY EVENING. A SAMPLE OF MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY BEING SUSTAINED IN
THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A S-SWLY LOW-LEVEL
JET HELPING TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7 C/KM BEING CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE DELMARVA TO THE GREATER
PHILLY AREA WHERE MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 750-1250 J/KG ARE FORECAST.
FARTHER NORTH, LIMITED THUNDER TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH FORECAST MUCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG AND WITH MORE CIN FOR CONVECTION TO OVERCOME IN THE
COOL SECTOR. EVEN IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES THAT ARE DEEPER INTO
THE WARM SECTOR, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY BEING NON-
SURFACE BASED AFTER SUNSET.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL MID-
ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN
WESTERLY POST-FRONTAL AND COLDER/DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.
TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH AN END TO THE PRECIP. THE FORECAST IS
NOW DRY FOR TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PA/NORTHWEST NJ AS THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS THRU. A ZONAL FLOW/NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL ENSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MID ATLANTIC
BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE SHOW
PRECIP EXPANDING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
12Z GFS SHOWED A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK STRENGTHENS AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION WOULD ENHANCE BOTH LIFT OVER OUR AREA AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL DECENT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, SO POPS WERE ONLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD WILL EVENTUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF STRATOCU. MAY EVEN SEE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
POCONOS EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH
DAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 60F IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO YIELD
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO DEVELOP AT THE SOME OF COOLER SPOTS IN
EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST NJ EACH NIGHT IF WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE GROWING SEASON
STARTS FOR NORTHEAST PA (EXCEPT CARBON AND MONROE) AND NORTHWEST NJ
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SO FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE BEFORE LWR CLOUDS AND PRECIP MOVE IN LATER
TONIGHT. THEN MVFR AND IFR WILL PREVIAL THRU THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT AND THRU MON AFTN. THE DEEP ERLY FLOW AND THE APPROACHING
WARM FRONT WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A QUICK INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL GO IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS AND A 6 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF LOW CONDITIONS,
RAIN AND LLWS WILL BE ACROSS THE TERMINALS UNTIL 12Z-14Z MONDAY.
THIS WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY PHL MON MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AND CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BEHIND IT MON AFTERNOON.
RATHER LOW CONFID IN THE FCST LATER MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
ERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND THEN VEER SE TO S DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PRECIP BUT WE MAY ALSO SEE
CIGS/VSBYS TRY TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN STRETCHES OF NO PRECIP.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. W-NW WINDS GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30
KT DURING THE DAY AND SUBSIDE AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHRA INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PREDOMINATELY VFR THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN STEADIER PRECIP.

THURSDAY...VFR. W-NW WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT APPROACH. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE THE
REST OF THE SCA FLAG WITH THE 330 PM CWF ISSUANCE. WINDS GUSTS WILL
BEGIN TO REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS GUIDANCE WAS QUITE BULLISH WITH THE WINDS WITH CLOSE TO
GALES OVERNIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY  BUY THIS ATTM AND KEEP
THE NUMBERS A BIT LOWER. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A MESOLOW CROSSING
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RAIN/FOG OVERNIGHT WITH LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE. A
CONTINUATION OF POOR CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING
TO SUBSIDE LATE. THE PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE. AREAS OF FOG MAY LINGER WITH THE
WATER TEMPS REMAINING VERY COLD AND DEW POINTS OVER THE WATERS QUITE
HIGH.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15-20 KT IN THE EVE WILL SHIFT OUT FROM THE
W-NW OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GIVEN SST IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S AND A WARM THE AIRMASS ABOVE, THE SETUP DOES NOT FAVOR
MUCH MIXING OF HIGHER GUSTS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EVEN IF GUSTS
TO 25 KT WILL BE INFREQUENT, SEAS WILL STILL BE 5-7 FT OFF THE NJ
AND DE COAST. THEREFORE, A SCA IS IN EFFECT.

TUESDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AS DEEPER MIXING ON LAND
WILL YIELD GUSTY WLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST. MEANWHILE,
WINDS FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THESE GUSTS. SEAS WILL
BE AROUND 4-6 FT IN THE MORNING, DIMINISHING TO 2-4 FT LATE IN THE
DAY AND AT NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FOURTH PERIOD SCA IN THIS
MARGINAL SETUP.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCA LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED DUE TO A GUSTY W-NW. AIRMASS
LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED EVEN OUT TO 20 NM
MILES OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH HAS INCREASED GRADUALLY THRUOUT THE DAY HAS INCREASED AS A
RESULT OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONLY LOCATIONS WITH RH BELOW 30
PERCENT IN FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS BUT WINDS ARE LIGHT THERE.
NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
921 PM STATUS FOR TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE. NOW THAT WE`RE AT
HIGH TIDE OR WITHIN AN HOUR OF HIGH TIDE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTS...THRESHOLD EXCEEDENCE FLOODING WILL NOT OCCUR WITH THIS
EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR THE REEDY POINT SEGMENT OF UPPER DELAWARE
BAY TO NUDGE FLOOD STAGE AT 1243 AM BUT AT THIS TIME, THE TOTAL
LEVEL SHOULD CREST BELOW THE 7.5 MLLW MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLD.

CONSTANT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN HIGH TIDES OCCURRING
15 TO 30 MINUTES AFTER THE ASTRONOMICALLY PREDICTED VALUES THIS
EVENING AND SURGE DEPARTURES SHOULD BE LARGER TOMORROW MORNING
BUT THE LOWER HIGH TIDE SHOULD ALSO MINIMIZE ANY RISK OF COASTAL
FLOODING THEN AS WELL.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY, THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS MAY REMAIN MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND THIS MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING FROM ATLANTIC CITY NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 200135
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD MIDWEEK BEFORE
STALLING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND RAIN
WILL ARRIVE IN MANY AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A FEW HOURS
EARLIER FAR S. THE RAINS WILL BECOME STEADY OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH
AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT. QPF WILL BE
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH N/E TO A QUARTER INCH S/W.

PRECIP IS SLOWIY MOVG IN FROM THE SW AND WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. POPS ARE GOING UP
ACCORDINGLY.  OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A LARGE BATCH OF STEADY RAINS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND A DECENT QPF UP AROUND AN INCH OR SO WILL OCCUR IN MANY
AREAS. TOTALS UP TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCALIZED
AREAS. WHILE THESE TOTALS ARE ROBUST...THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA PRESENTLY SHOULD KEEP ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT BAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING  MAY OCCUR...BUT
THE LACK OF ANY WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL KEEP US FROM ISSUING ANY
FLOOD FLAGS ATTM. THE RAIN SHIELD WILL PULL TO THE NORTH BY LATE
MORNING AND PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY FOR THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVC N/W DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT BREAKS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

THE MOST RECENT SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
ACROSS MOST OF THE S/W 2/3RDS OF THE CWA FOR TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE AND THIS SHOULD
TOUCH OFF SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. CAPE VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ALSO...SINCE A SHORT BREAK IN THE CLOUDS
WILL HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON TEMPS. WE HAVE A MAV FCST
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN FEW AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER ONTARIO. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NEGATIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
LOW WHILE A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE NEAR CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF PA AND NJ MONDAY EVENING. A SAMPLE OF MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY BEING SUSTAINED IN
THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A S-SWLY LOW-LEVEL
JET HELPING TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7 C/KM BEING CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE DELMARVA TO THE GREATER
PHILLY AREA WHERE MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 750-1250 J/KG ARE FORECAST.
FARTHER NORTH, LIMITED THUNDER TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH FORECAST MUCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG AND WITH MORE CIN FOR CONVECTION TO OVERCOME IN THE
COOL SECTOR. EVEN IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES THAT ARE DEEPER INTO
THE WARM SECTOR, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY BEING NON-
SURFACE BASED AFTER SUNSET.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL MID-
ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN
WESTERLY POST-FRONTAL AND COLDER/DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.
TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH AN END TO THE PRECIP. THE FORECAST IS
NOW DRY FOR TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PA/NORTHWEST NJ AS THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS THRU. A ZONAL FLOW/NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL ENSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MID ATLANTIC
BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE SHOW
PRECIP EXPANDING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
12Z GFS SHOWED A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK STRENGTHENS AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION WOULD ENHANCE BOTH LIFT OVER OUR AREA AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL DECENT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, SO POPS WERE ONLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD WILL EVENTUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF STRATOCU. MAY EVEN SEE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
POCONOS EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH
DAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 60F IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO YIELD
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO DEVELOP AT THE SOME OF COOLER SPOTS IN
EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST NJ EACH NIGHT IF WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE GROWING SEASON
STARTS FOR NORTHEAST PA (EXCEPT CARBON AND MONROE) AND NORTHWEST NJ
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SO FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE BEFORE LWR CLOUDS AND PRECIP MOVE IN LATER
TONIGHT. THEN MVFR AND IFR WILL PREVIAL THRU THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT AND THRU MON AFTN. THE DEEP ERLY FLOW AND THE APPROACHING
WARM FRONT WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A QUICK INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL GO IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS AND A 6 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF LOW CONDITIONS,
RAIN AND LLWS WILL BE ACROSS THE TERMINALS UNTIL 12Z-14Z MONDAY.
THIS WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY PHL MON MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AND CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BEHIND IT MON AFTERNOON.
RATHER LOW CONFID IN THE FCST LATER MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
ERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND THEN VEER SE TO S DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PRECIP BUT WE MAY ALSO SEE
CIGS/VSBYS TRY TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN STRETCHES OF NO PRECIP.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. W-NW WINDS GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30
KT DURING THE DAY AND SUBSIDE AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHRA INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PREDOMINATELY VFR THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN STEADIER PRECIP.

THURSDAY...VFR. W-NW WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT APPROACH. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE THE
REST OF THE SCA FLAG WITH THE 330 PM CWF ISSUANCE. WINDS GUSTS WILL
BEGIN TO REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS GUIDANCE WAS QUITE BULLISH WITH THE WINDS WITH CLOSE TO
GALES OVERNIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY  BUY THIS ATTM AND KEEP
THE NUMBERS A BIT LOWER. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A MESOLOW CROSSING
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RAIN/FOG OVERNIGHT WITH LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE. A
CONTINUATION OF POOR CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING
TO SUBSIDE LATE. THE PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE. AREAS OF FOG MAY LINGER WITH THE
WATER TEMPS REMAINING VERY COLD AND DEW POINTS OVER THE WATERS QUITE
HIGH.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15-20 KT IN THE EVE WILL SHIFT OUT FROM THE
W-NW OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GIVEN SST IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S AND A WARM THE AIRMASS ABOVE, THE SETUP DOES NOT FAVOR
MUCH MIXING OF HIGHER GUSTS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EVEN IF GUSTS
TO 25 KT WILL BE INFREQUENT, SEAS WILL STILL BE 5-7 FT OFF THE NJ
AND DE COAST. THEREFORE, A SCA IS IN EFFECT.

TUESDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AS DEEPER MIXING ON LAND
WILL YIELD GUSTY WLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST. MEANWHILE,
WINDS FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THESE GUSTS. SEAS WILL
BE AROUND 4-6 FT IN THE MORNING, DIMINISHING TO 2-4 FT LATE IN THE
DAY AND AT NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FOURTH PERIOD SCA IN THIS
MARGINAL SETUP.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCA LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED DUE TO A GUSTY W-NW. AIRMASS
LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED EVEN OUT TO 20 NM
MILES OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH HAS INCREASED GRADUALLY THRUOUT THE DAY HAS INCREASED AS A
RESULT OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONLY LOCATIONS WITH RH BELOW 30
PERCENT IN FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS BUT WINDS ARE LIGHT THERE.
NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
921 PM STATUS FOR TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE. NOW THAT WE`RE AT
HIGH TIDE OR WITHIN AN HOUR OF HIGH TIDE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTS...THRESHOLD EXCEEDENCE FLOODING WILL NOT OCCUR WITH THIS
EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR THE REEDY POINT SEGMENT OF UPPER DELAWARE
BAY TO NUDGE FLOOD STAGE AT 1243 AM BUT AT THIS TIME, THE TOTAL
LEVEL SHOULD CREST BELOW THE 7.5 MLLW MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLD.

CONSTANT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN HIGH TIDES OCCURRING
15 TO 30 MINUTES AFTER THE ASTRONOMICALLY PREDICTED VALUES THIS
EVENING AND SURGE DEPARTURES SHOULD BE LARGER TOMORROW MORNING
BUT THE LOWER HIGH TIDE SHOULD ALSO MINIMIZE ANY RISK OF COASTAL
FLOODING THEN AS WELL.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY, THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS MAY REMAIN MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND THIS MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING FROM ATLANTIC CITY NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200121
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
921 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD MIDWEEK BEFORE
STALLING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST EARLY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN
MANY AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A FEW HOURS EARLIER FAR S. THE
RAINS WILL BECOME STEADY OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT. QPF WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
N/E TO A QUARTER INCH S/W.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS IN THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR TERM S AND W.  OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A LARGE BATCH OF STEADY RAINS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND A DECENT QPF UP AROUND AN INCH OR SO WILL OCCUR IN MANY
AREAS. TOTALS UP TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCALIZED
AREAS. WHILE THESE TOTALS ARE ROBUST...THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA PRESENTLY SHOULD KEEP ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT BAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING  MAY OCCUR...BUT
THE LACK OF ANY WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL KEEP US FROM ISSUING ANY
FLOOD FLAGS ATTM. THE RAIN SHIELD WILL PULL TO THE NORTH BY LATE
MORNING AND PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY FOR THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVC N/W DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT BREAKS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

THE MOST RECENT SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
ACROSS MOST OF THE S/W 2/3RDS OF THE CWA FOR TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE AND THIS SHOULD
TOUCH OFF SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. CAPE VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ALSO...SINCE A SHORT BREAK IN THE CLOUDS
WILL HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON TEMPS. WE HAVE A MAV FCST
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN FEW AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER ONTARIO. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NEGATIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
LOW WHILE A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE NEAR CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF PA AND NJ MONDAY EVENING. A SAMPLE OF MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY BEING SUSTAINED IN
THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A S-SWLY LOW-LEVEL
JET HELPING TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7 C/KM BEING CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE DELMARVA TO THE GREATER
PHILLY AREA WHERE MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 750-1250 J/KG ARE FORECAST.
FARTHER NORTH, LIMITED THUNDER TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH FORECAST MUCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG AND WITH MORE CIN FOR CONVECTION TO OVERCOME IN THE
COOL SECTOR. EVEN IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES THAT ARE DEEPER INTO
THE WARM SECTOR, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY BEING NON-
SURFACE BASED AFTER SUNSET.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL MID-
ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN
WESTERLY POST-FRONTAL AND COLDER/DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.
TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH AN END TO THE PRECIP. THE FORECAST IS
NOW DRY FOR TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PA/NORTHWEST NJ AS THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS THRU. A ZONAL FLOW/NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL ENSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MID ATLANTIC
BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE SHOW
PRECIP EXPANDING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
12Z GFS SHOWED A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK STRENGTHENS AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION WOULD ENHANCE BOTH LIFT OVER OUR AREA AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL DECENT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, SO POPS WERE ONLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD WILL EVENTUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF STRATOCU. MAY EVEN SEE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
POCONOS EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH
DAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 60F IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO YIELD
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO DEVELOP AT THE SOME OF COOLER SPOTS IN
EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST NJ EACH NIGHT IF WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE GROWING SEASON
STARTS FOR NORTHEAST PA (EXCEPT CARBON AND MONROE) AND NORTHWEST NJ
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SO FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE DEEP ERLY FLOW AND THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A QUICK INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL GO IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS AND A 6 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF LOW CONDITIONS,
RAIN AND LLWS WILL BE ACROSS THE TERMINALS UNTIL 12Z-14Z MONDAY.
THIS WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY PHL MON MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AND CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BEHIND IT MON AFTERNOON.
RATHER LOW CONFID IN THE FCST LATER MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
ERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND THEN VEER SE TO S DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PRECIP BUT WE MAY ALSO SEE
CIGS/VSBYS TRY TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN STRETCHES OF NO PRECIP.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. W-NW WINDS GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30
KT DURING THE DAY AND SUBSIDE AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHRA INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PREDOMINATELY VFR THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN STEADIER PRECIP.

THURSDAY...VFR. W-NW WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT APPROACH. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE THE
REST OF THE SCA FLAG WITH THE 330 PM CWF ISSUANCE. WINDS GUSTS WILL
BEGIN TO REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS GUIDANCE WAS QUITE BULLISH WITH THE WINDS WITH CLOSE TO
GALES OVERNIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY  BUY THIS ATTM AND KEEP
THE NUMBERS A BIT LOWER. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A MESOLOW CROSSING
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RAIN/FOG OVERNIGHT WITH LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE. A
CONTINUATION OF POOR CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING
TO SUBSIDE LATE. THE PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE. AREAS OF FOG MAY LINGER WITH THE
WATER TEMPS REMAINING VERY COLD AND DEW POINTS OVER THE WATERS QUITE
HIGH.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15-20 KT IN THE EVE WILL SHIFT OUT FROM THE
W-NW OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GIVEN SST IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S AND A WARM THE AIRMASS ABOVE, THE SETUP DOES NOT FAVOR
MUCH MIXING OF HIGHER GUSTS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EVEN IF GUSTS
TO 25 KT WILL BE INFREQUENT, SEAS WILL STILL BE 5-7 FT OFF THE NJ
AND DE COAST. THEREFORE, A SCA IS IN EFFECT.

TUESDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AS DEEPER MIXING ON LAND
WILL YIELD GUSTY WLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST. MEANWHILE,
WINDS FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THESE GUSTS. SEAS WILL
BE AROUND 4-6 FT IN THE MORNING, DIMINISHING TO 2-4 FT LATE IN THE
DAY AND AT NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FOURTH PERIOD SCA IN THIS
MARGINAL SETUP.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCA LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED DUE TO A GUSTY W-NW. AIRMASS
LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED EVEN OUT TO 20 NM
MILES OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH HAS INCREASED GRADUALLY THRUOUT THE DAY HAS INCREASED AS A
RESULT OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONLY LOCATIONS WITH RH BELOW 30
PERCENT IN FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS BUT WINDS ARE LIGHT THERE.
NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
921 PM STATUS FOR TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE. NOW THAT WE`RE AT
HIGH TIDE OR WITHIN AN HOUR OF HIGH TIDE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COASTS...THRESHOLD EXCEEDENCE FLOODING WILL NOT OCCUR WITH THIS
EVENINGS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR THE REEDY POINT SEGMENT OF UPPER DELAWARE
BAY TO NUDGE FLOOD STAGE AT 1243 AM BUT AT THIS TIME, THE TOTAL
LEVEL SHOULD CREST BELOW THE 7.5 MLLW MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLD.

CONSTANT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN HIGH TIDES OCCURRING
15 TO 30 MINUTES AFTER THE ASTRONOMICALLY PREDICTED VALUES THIS
EVENING AND SURGE DEPARTURES SHOULD BE LARGER TOMORROW MORNING
BUT THE LOWER HIGH TIDE SHOULD ALSO MINIMIZE ANY RISK OF COASTAL
FLOODING THEN AS WELL.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY, THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS MAY REMAIN MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND THIS MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING FROM ATLANTIC CITY NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...921





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200035
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
835 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD MIDWEEK BEFORE
STALLING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST EARLY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN
MANY AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A FEW HOURS EARLIER FAR S. THE
RAINS WILL BECOME STEADY OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT. QPF WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
N/E TO A QUARTER INCH S/W.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS IN THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR TERM S AND W.  OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A LARGE BATCH OF STEADY RAINS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND A DECENT QPF UP AROUND AN INCH OR SO WILL OCCUR IN MANY
AREAS. TOTALS UP TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCALIZED
AREAS. WHILE THESE TOTALS ARE ROBUST...THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA PRESENTLY SHOULD KEEP ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT BAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING  MAY OCCUR...BUT
THE LACK OF ANY WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL KEEP US FROM ISSUING ANY
FLOOD FLAGS ATTM. THE RAIN SHIELD WILL PULL TO THE NORTH BY LATE
MORNING AND PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY FOR THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVC N/W DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT BREAKS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

THE MOST RECENT SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
ACROSS MOST OF THE S/W 2/3RDS OF THE CWA FOR TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE AND THIS SHOULD
TOUCH OFF SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. CAPE VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ALSO...SINCE A SHORT BREAK IN THE CLOUDS
WILL HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON TEMPS. WE HAVE A MAV FCST
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN FEW AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER ONTARIO. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NEGATIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
LOW WHILE A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE NEAR CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF PA AND NJ MONDAY EVENING. A SAMPLE OF MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY BEING SUSTAINED IN
THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A S-SWLY LOW-LEVEL
JET HELPING TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7 C/KM BEING CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE DELMARVA TO THE GREATER
PHILLY AREA WHERE MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 750-1250 J/KG ARE FORECAST.
FARTHER NORTH, LIMITED THUNDER TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH FORECAST MUCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG AND WITH MORE CIN FOR CONVECTION TO OVERCOME IN THE
COOL SECTOR. EVEN IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES THAT ARE DEEPER INTO
THE WARM SECTOR, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY BEING NON-
SURFACE BASED AFTER SUNSET.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL MID-
ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN
WESTERLY POST-FRONTAL AND COLDER/DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.
TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH AN END TO THE PRECIP. THE FORECAST IS
NOW DRY FOR TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PA/NORTHWEST NJ AS THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS THRU. A ZONAL FLOW/NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL ENSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MID ATLANTIC
BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE SHOW
PRECIP EXPANDING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
12Z GFS SHOWED A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK STRENGTHENS AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION WOULD ENHANCE BOTH LIFT OVER OUR AREA AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL DECENT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, SO POPS WERE ONLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD WILL EVENTUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF STRATOCU. MAY EVEN SEE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
POCONOS EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH
DAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 60F IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO YIELD
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO DEVELOP AT THE SOME OF COOLER SPOTS IN
EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST NJ EACH NIGHT IF WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE GROWING SEASON
STARTS FOR NORTHEAST PA (EXCEPT CARBON AND MONROE) AND NORTHWEST NJ
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SO FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE DEEP ERLY FLOW AND THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A QUICK INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL GO IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS AND A 6 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF LOW CONDITIONS,
RAIN AND LLWS WILL BE ACROSS THE TERMINALS UNTIL 12Z-14Z MONDAY.
THIS WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY PHL MON MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AND CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BEHIND IT MON AFTERNOON.
RATHER LOW CONFID IN THE FCST LATER MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
ERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND THEN VEER SE TO S DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PRECIP BUT WE MAY ALSO SEE
CIGS/VSBYS TRY TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN STRETCHES OF NO PRECIP.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. W-NW WINDS GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30
KT DURING THE DAY AND SUBSIDE AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHRA INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PREDOMINATELY VFR THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN STEADIER PRECIP.

THURSDAY...VFR. W-NW WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT APPROACH. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE THE
REST OF THE SCA FLAG WITH THE 330 PM CWF ISSUANCE. WINDS GUSTS WILL
BEGIN TO REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS GUIDANCE WAS QUITE BULLISH WITH THE WINDS WITH CLOSE TO
GALES OVERNIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY  BUY THIS ATTM AND KEEP
THE NUMBERS A BIT LOWER. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A MESOLOW CROSSING
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RAIN/FOG OVERNIGHT WITH LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE. A
CONTINUATION OF POOR CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING
TO SUBSIDE LATE. THE PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE. AREAS OF FOG MAY LINGER WITH THE
WATER TEMPS REMAINING VERY COLD AND DEW POINTS OVER THE WATERS QUITE
HIGH.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15-20 KT IN THE EVE WILL SHIFT OUT FROM THE
W-NW OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GIVEN SST IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S AND A WARM THE AIRMASS ABOVE, THE SETUP DOES NOT FAVOR
MUCH MIXING OF HIGHER GUSTS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EVEN IF GUSTS
TO 25 KT WILL BE INFREQUENT, SEAS WILL STILL BE 5-7 FT OFF THE NJ
AND DE COAST. THEREFORE, A SCA IS IN EFFECT.

TUESDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AS DEEPER MIXING ON LAND
WILL YIELD GUSTY WLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST. MEANWHILE,
WINDS FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THESE GUSTS. SEAS WILL
BE AROUND 4-6 FT IN THE MORNING, DIMINISHING TO 2-4 FT LATE IN THE
DAY AND AT NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FOURTH PERIOD SCA IN THIS
MARGINAL SETUP.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCA LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED DUE TO A GUSTY W-NW. AIRMASS
LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED EVEN OUT TO 20 NM
MILES OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH HAS INCREASED GRADUALLY THRUOUT THE DAY HAS INCREASED AS A
RESULT OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONLY LOCATIONS WITH RH BELOW 30
PERCENT IN FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS BUT WINDS ARE LIGHT THERE.
NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
830 PM AS 630 PM: STATUS FOR TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE. RECENT
TRENDS SUGGEST WE`LL BE ABLE TO SQUEAK BY WITH NO EXCEEDANCE OF
THE HIGHER THRESHOLD VALUES. LATEST NAM DBOFS AND GFS ETSS CONTINUE
BLO FLOOD. SIT AND OUR IN-HOUSE PHI CHECK`S SAY MARGINAL. WE`LL
CHECK BACK AROUND 945 PM. FOR NOW THE GREATEST RISK FOR RUNNING
JUST BELOW FS IS ALONG THE DE WATERS.

A STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT COMBINED WITH INFLUENCE FROM
THE RECENT NEW MOON, MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO OCCUR
WITH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE IN COASTAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, MAINLY FROM CAPE MAY COUNTY SOUTHWARD AND UP THE ALONG THE
DELAWARE BAY AND INTO THE DELAWARE RIVER. THE GUIDANCE MAY STILL BE
RUNNING A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION AND ANY NEED FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY, THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS MAY REMAIN MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND THIS MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
FROM ATLANTIC CITY NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...836





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200035
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
835 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD MIDWEEK BEFORE
STALLING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST EARLY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN
MANY AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A FEW HOURS EARLIER FAR S. THE
RAINS WILL BECOME STEADY OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT. QPF WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
N/E TO A QUARTER INCH S/W.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS IN THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR TERM S AND W.  OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A LARGE BATCH OF STEADY RAINS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND A DECENT QPF UP AROUND AN INCH OR SO WILL OCCUR IN MANY
AREAS. TOTALS UP TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCALIZED
AREAS. WHILE THESE TOTALS ARE ROBUST...THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA PRESENTLY SHOULD KEEP ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT BAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING  MAY OCCUR...BUT
THE LACK OF ANY WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL KEEP US FROM ISSUING ANY
FLOOD FLAGS ATTM. THE RAIN SHIELD WILL PULL TO THE NORTH BY LATE
MORNING AND PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY FOR THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVC N/W DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT BREAKS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

THE MOST RECENT SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
ACROSS MOST OF THE S/W 2/3RDS OF THE CWA FOR TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE AND THIS SHOULD
TOUCH OFF SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. CAPE VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ALSO...SINCE A SHORT BREAK IN THE CLOUDS
WILL HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON TEMPS. WE HAVE A MAV FCST
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN FEW AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER ONTARIO. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NEGATIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
LOW WHILE A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE NEAR CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF PA AND NJ MONDAY EVENING. A SAMPLE OF MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY BEING SUSTAINED IN
THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A S-SWLY LOW-LEVEL
JET HELPING TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7 C/KM BEING CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE DELMARVA TO THE GREATER
PHILLY AREA WHERE MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 750-1250 J/KG ARE FORECAST.
FARTHER NORTH, LIMITED THUNDER TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH FORECAST MUCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG AND WITH MORE CIN FOR CONVECTION TO OVERCOME IN THE
COOL SECTOR. EVEN IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES THAT ARE DEEPER INTO
THE WARM SECTOR, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY BEING NON-
SURFACE BASED AFTER SUNSET.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL MID-
ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN
WESTERLY POST-FRONTAL AND COLDER/DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.
TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH AN END TO THE PRECIP. THE FORECAST IS
NOW DRY FOR TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PA/NORTHWEST NJ AS THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS THRU. A ZONAL FLOW/NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL ENSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MID ATLANTIC
BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE SHOW
PRECIP EXPANDING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
12Z GFS SHOWED A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK STRENGTHENS AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION WOULD ENHANCE BOTH LIFT OVER OUR AREA AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL DECENT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, SO POPS WERE ONLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD WILL EVENTUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF STRATOCU. MAY EVEN SEE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
POCONOS EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH
DAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 60F IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO YIELD
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO DEVELOP AT THE SOME OF COOLER SPOTS IN
EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST NJ EACH NIGHT IF WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE GROWING SEASON
STARTS FOR NORTHEAST PA (EXCEPT CARBON AND MONROE) AND NORTHWEST NJ
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SO FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE DEEP ERLY FLOW AND THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A QUICK INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL GO IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS AND A 6 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF LOW CONDITIONS,
RAIN AND LLWS WILL BE ACROSS THE TERMINALS UNTIL 12Z-14Z MONDAY.
THIS WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY PHL MON MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AND CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BEHIND IT MON AFTERNOON.
RATHER LOW CONFID IN THE FCST LATER MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
ERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND THEN VEER SE TO S DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PRECIP BUT WE MAY ALSO SEE
CIGS/VSBYS TRY TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN STRETCHES OF NO PRECIP.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. W-NW WINDS GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30
KT DURING THE DAY AND SUBSIDE AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHRA INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PREDOMINATELY VFR THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN STEADIER PRECIP.

THURSDAY...VFR. W-NW WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT APPROACH. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE THE
REST OF THE SCA FLAG WITH THE 330 PM CWF ISSUANCE. WINDS GUSTS WILL
BEGIN TO REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS GUIDANCE WAS QUITE BULLISH WITH THE WINDS WITH CLOSE TO
GALES OVERNIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY  BUY THIS ATTM AND KEEP
THE NUMBERS A BIT LOWER. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A MESOLOW CROSSING
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RAIN/FOG OVERNIGHT WITH LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE. A
CONTINUATION OF POOR CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING
TO SUBSIDE LATE. THE PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE. AREAS OF FOG MAY LINGER WITH THE
WATER TEMPS REMAINING VERY COLD AND DEW POINTS OVER THE WATERS QUITE
HIGH.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15-20 KT IN THE EVE WILL SHIFT OUT FROM THE
W-NW OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GIVEN SST IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S AND A WARM THE AIRMASS ABOVE, THE SETUP DOES NOT FAVOR
MUCH MIXING OF HIGHER GUSTS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EVEN IF GUSTS
TO 25 KT WILL BE INFREQUENT, SEAS WILL STILL BE 5-7 FT OFF THE NJ
AND DE COAST. THEREFORE, A SCA IS IN EFFECT.

TUESDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AS DEEPER MIXING ON LAND
WILL YIELD GUSTY WLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST. MEANWHILE,
WINDS FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THESE GUSTS. SEAS WILL
BE AROUND 4-6 FT IN THE MORNING, DIMINISHING TO 2-4 FT LATE IN THE
DAY AND AT NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FOURTH PERIOD SCA IN THIS
MARGINAL SETUP.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCA LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED DUE TO A GUSTY W-NW. AIRMASS
LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED EVEN OUT TO 20 NM
MILES OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH HAS INCREASED GRADUALLY THRUOUT THE DAY HAS INCREASED AS A
RESULT OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONLY LOCATIONS WITH RH BELOW 30
PERCENT IN FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS BUT WINDS ARE LIGHT THERE.
NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
830 PM AS 630 PM: STATUS FOR TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE. RECENT
TRENDS SUGGEST WE`LL BE ABLE TO SQUEAK BY WITH NO EXCEEDANCE OF
THE HIGHER THRESHOLD VALUES. LATEST NAM DBOFS AND GFS ETSS CONTINUE
BLO FLOOD. SIT AND OUR IN-HOUSE PHI CHECK`S SAY MARGINAL. WE`LL
CHECK BACK AROUND 945 PM. FOR NOW THE GREATEST RISK FOR RUNNING
JUST BELOW FS IS ALONG THE DE WATERS.

A STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT COMBINED WITH INFLUENCE FROM
THE RECENT NEW MOON, MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO OCCUR
WITH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE IN COASTAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, MAINLY FROM CAPE MAY COUNTY SOUTHWARD AND UP THE ALONG THE
DELAWARE BAY AND INTO THE DELAWARE RIVER. THE GUIDANCE MAY STILL BE
RUNNING A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION AND ANY NEED FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY, THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS MAY REMAIN MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND THIS MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
FROM ATLANTIC CITY NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...836




000
FXUS61 KPHI 192246
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
646 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD MIDWEEK BEFORE
STALLING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST EARLY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN
MANY AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A FEW HOURS EARLIER FAR S. THE
RAINS WILL BECOME STEADY OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT. QPF WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
N/E TO A QUARTER INCH S/W.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS IN THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR TERM S AND W.  OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A LARGE BATCH OF STEADY RAINS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND A DECENT QPF UP AROUND AN INCH OR SO WILL OCCUR IN MANY
AREAS. TOTALS UP TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCALIZED
AREAS. WHILE THESE TOTALS ARE ROBUST...THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA PRESENTLY SHOULD KEEP ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT BAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING  MAY OCCUR...BUT
THE LACK OF ANY WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL KEEP US FROM ISSUING ANY
FLOOD FLAGS ATTM. THE RAIN SHIELD WILL PULL TO THE NORTH BY LATE
MORNING AND PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY FOR THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVC N/W DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT BREAKS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

THE MOST RECENT SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
ACROSS MOST OF THE S/W 2/3RDS OF THE CWA FOR TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE AND THIS SHOULD
TOUCH OFF SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. CAPE VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ALSO...SINCE A SHORT BREAK IN THE CLOUDS
WILL HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON TEMPS. WE HAVE A MAV FCST
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN FEW AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER ONTARIO. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NEGATIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
LOW WHILE A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE NEAR CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF PA AND NJ MONDAY EVENING. A SAMPLE OF MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY BEING SUSTAINED IN
THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A S-SWLY LOW-LEVEL
JET HELPING TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7 C/KM BEING CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE DELMARVA TO THE GREATER
PHILLY AREA WHERE MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 750-1250 J/KG ARE FORECAST.
FARTHER NORTH, LIMITED THUNDER TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH FORECAST MUCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG AND WITH MORE CIN FOR CONVECTION TO OVERCOME IN THE
COOL SECTOR. EVEN IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES THAT ARE DEEPER INTO
THE WARM SECTOR, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY BEING NON-
SURFACE BASED AFTER SUNSET.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL MID-
ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN
WESTERLY POST-FRONTAL AND COLDER/DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.
TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH AN END TO THE PRECIP. THE FORECAST IS
NOW DRY FOR TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PA/NORTHWEST NJ AS THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS THRU. A ZONAL FLOW/NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL ENSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MID ATLANTIC
BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE SHOW
PRECIP EXPANDING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
12Z GFS SHOWED A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK STRENGTHENS AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION WOULD ENHANCE BOTH LIFT OVER OUR AREA AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL DECENT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, SO POPS WERE ONLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD WILL EVENTUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF STRATOCU. MAY EVEN SEE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
POCONOS EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH
DAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 60F IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO YIELD
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO DEVELOP AT THE SOME OF COOLER SPOTS IN
EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST NJ EACH NIGHT IF WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE GROWING SEASON
STARTS FOR NORTHEAST PA (EXCEPT CARBON AND MONROE) AND NORTHWEST NJ
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SO FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE DEEP ERLY FLOW AND THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A QUICK INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL GO IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS AND A 6 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF LOW CONDITIONS,
RAIN AND LLWS WILL BE ACROSS THE TERMINALS UNTIL 12Z-14Z MONDAY.
THIS WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY PHL MON MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AND CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BEHIND IT MON AFTERNOON.
RATHER LOW CONFID IN THE FCST LATER MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
ERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND THEN VEER SE TO S DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PRECIP BUT WE MAY ALSO SEE
CIGS/VSBYS TRY TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN STRETCHES OF NO PRECIP.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. W-NW WINDS GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30
KT DURING THE DAY AND SUBSIDE AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHRA INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PREDOMINATELY VFR THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN STEADIER PRECIP.

THURSDAY...VFR. W-NW WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT APPROACH. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE THE
REST OF THE SCA FLAG WITH THE 330 PM CWF ISSUANCE. WINDS GUSTS WILL
BEGIN TO REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS GUIDANCE WAS QUITE BULLISH WITH THE WINDS WITH CLOSE TO
GALES OVERNIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY  BUY THIS ATTM AND KEEP
THE NUMBERS A BIT LOWER. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A MESOLOW CROSSING
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RAIN/FOG OVERNIGHT WITH LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE. A
CONTINUATION OF POOR CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING
TO SUBSIDE LATE. THE PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE. AREAS OF FOG MAY LINGER WITH THE
WATER TEMPS REMAINING VERY COLD AND DEW POINTS OVER THE WATERS QUITE
HIGH.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15-20 KT IN THE EVE WILL SHIFT OUT FROM THE
W-NW OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GIVEN SST IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S AND A WARM THE AIRMASS ABOVE, THE SETUP DOES NOT FAVOR
MUCH MIXING OF HIGHER GUSTS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EVEN IF GUSTS
TO 25 KT WILL BE INFREQUENT, SEAS WILL STILL BE 5-7 FT OFF THE NJ
AND DE COAST. THEREFORE, A SCA IS IN EFFECT.

TUESDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AS DEEPER MIXING ON LAND
WILL YIELD GUSTY WLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST. MEANWHILE,
WINDS FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THESE GUSTS. SEAS WILL
BE AROUND 4-6 FT IN THE MORNING, DIMINISHING TO 2-4 FT LATE IN THE
DAY AND AT NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FOURTH PERIOD SCA IN THIS
MARGINAL SETUP.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCA LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED DUE TO A GUSTY W-NW. AIRMASS
LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED EVEN OUT TO 20 NM
MILES OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH HAS INCREASED GRADUALLY THRUOUT THE DAY HAS INCREASED AS A
RESULT OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONLY LOCATIONS WITH RH BELOW 30
PERCENT IN FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS BUT WINDS ARE LIGHT THERE.
NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
630 PM: STATUS FOR TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE. RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST
WE`LL BE ABLE TO SQUEAK BY WITH NO EXCEEDANCE OF THE HIGHER THRESHOLD
VALUES. LATEST NAM DBOFS AND GFS ETSS CONTINUE BLO FLOOD. SITAND
OUR IN-HOUSE PHI CHECK`S SAY MARGINAL. WE`LL CHECK BACK AROUND 8
PM.

A STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT COMBINED WITH INFLUENCE FROM
THE RECENT NEW MOON, MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO OCCUR
WITH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE IN COASTAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, MAINLY FROM CAPE MAY COUNTY SOUTHWARD AND UP THE ALONG THE
DELAWARE BAY AND INTO THE DELAWARE RIVER. THE GUIDANCE MAY STILL BE
RUNNING A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION AND ANY NEED FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY, THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS MAY REMAIN MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND THIS MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
FROM ATLANTIC CITY NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...646





000
FXUS61 KPHI 192246
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
646 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD MIDWEEK BEFORE
STALLING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST EARLY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN
MANY AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A FEW HOURS EARLIER FAR S. THE
RAINS WILL BECOME STEADY OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT. QPF WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
N/E TO A QUARTER INCH S/W.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS IN THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR TERM S AND W.  OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A LARGE BATCH OF STEADY RAINS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND A DECENT QPF UP AROUND AN INCH OR SO WILL OCCUR IN MANY
AREAS. TOTALS UP TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCALIZED
AREAS. WHILE THESE TOTALS ARE ROBUST...THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA PRESENTLY SHOULD KEEP ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT BAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING  MAY OCCUR...BUT
THE LACK OF ANY WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL KEEP US FROM ISSUING ANY
FLOOD FLAGS ATTM. THE RAIN SHIELD WILL PULL TO THE NORTH BY LATE
MORNING AND PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY FOR THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVC N/W DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT BREAKS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

THE MOST RECENT SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
ACROSS MOST OF THE S/W 2/3RDS OF THE CWA FOR TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE AND THIS SHOULD
TOUCH OFF SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. CAPE VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ALSO...SINCE A SHORT BREAK IN THE CLOUDS
WILL HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON TEMPS. WE HAVE A MAV FCST
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN FEW AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER ONTARIO. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NEGATIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
LOW WHILE A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE NEAR CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF PA AND NJ MONDAY EVENING. A SAMPLE OF MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY BEING SUSTAINED IN
THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A S-SWLY LOW-LEVEL
JET HELPING TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7 C/KM BEING CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE DELMARVA TO THE GREATER
PHILLY AREA WHERE MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 750-1250 J/KG ARE FORECAST.
FARTHER NORTH, LIMITED THUNDER TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH FORECAST MUCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG AND WITH MORE CIN FOR CONVECTION TO OVERCOME IN THE
COOL SECTOR. EVEN IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES THAT ARE DEEPER INTO
THE WARM SECTOR, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY BEING NON-
SURFACE BASED AFTER SUNSET.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL MID-
ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN
WESTERLY POST-FRONTAL AND COLDER/DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.
TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH AN END TO THE PRECIP. THE FORECAST IS
NOW DRY FOR TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PA/NORTHWEST NJ AS THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS THRU. A ZONAL FLOW/NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL ENSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MID ATLANTIC
BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE SHOW
PRECIP EXPANDING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
12Z GFS SHOWED A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK STRENGTHENS AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION WOULD ENHANCE BOTH LIFT OVER OUR AREA AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL DECENT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, SO POPS WERE ONLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD WILL EVENTUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF STRATOCU. MAY EVEN SEE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
POCONOS EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH
DAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 60F IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO YIELD
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO DEVELOP AT THE SOME OF COOLER SPOTS IN
EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST NJ EACH NIGHT IF WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE GROWING SEASON
STARTS FOR NORTHEAST PA (EXCEPT CARBON AND MONROE) AND NORTHWEST NJ
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SO FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE DEEP ERLY FLOW AND THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A QUICK INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL GO IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS AND A 6 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF LOW CONDITIONS,
RAIN AND LLWS WILL BE ACROSS THE TERMINALS UNTIL 12Z-14Z MONDAY.
THIS WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY PHL MON MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AND CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BEHIND IT MON AFTERNOON.
RATHER LOW CONFID IN THE FCST LATER MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
ERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND THEN VEER SE TO S DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PRECIP BUT WE MAY ALSO SEE
CIGS/VSBYS TRY TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN STRETCHES OF NO PRECIP.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. W-NW WINDS GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30
KT DURING THE DAY AND SUBSIDE AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHRA INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PREDOMINATELY VFR THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN STEADIER PRECIP.

THURSDAY...VFR. W-NW WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT APPROACH. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE THE
REST OF THE SCA FLAG WITH THE 330 PM CWF ISSUANCE. WINDS GUSTS WILL
BEGIN TO REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS GUIDANCE WAS QUITE BULLISH WITH THE WINDS WITH CLOSE TO
GALES OVERNIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY  BUY THIS ATTM AND KEEP
THE NUMBERS A BIT LOWER. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A MESOLOW CROSSING
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RAIN/FOG OVERNIGHT WITH LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE. A
CONTINUATION OF POOR CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING
TO SUBSIDE LATE. THE PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE. AREAS OF FOG MAY LINGER WITH THE
WATER TEMPS REMAINING VERY COLD AND DEW POINTS OVER THE WATERS QUITE
HIGH.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15-20 KT IN THE EVE WILL SHIFT OUT FROM THE
W-NW OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GIVEN SST IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S AND A WARM THE AIRMASS ABOVE, THE SETUP DOES NOT FAVOR
MUCH MIXING OF HIGHER GUSTS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EVEN IF GUSTS
TO 25 KT WILL BE INFREQUENT, SEAS WILL STILL BE 5-7 FT OFF THE NJ
AND DE COAST. THEREFORE, A SCA IS IN EFFECT.

TUESDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AS DEEPER MIXING ON LAND
WILL YIELD GUSTY WLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST. MEANWHILE,
WINDS FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THESE GUSTS. SEAS WILL
BE AROUND 4-6 FT IN THE MORNING, DIMINISHING TO 2-4 FT LATE IN THE
DAY AND AT NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FOURTH PERIOD SCA IN THIS
MARGINAL SETUP.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCA LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED DUE TO A GUSTY W-NW. AIRMASS
LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED EVEN OUT TO 20 NM
MILES OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH HAS INCREASED GRADUALLY THRUOUT THE DAY HAS INCREASED AS A
RESULT OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONLY LOCATIONS WITH RH BELOW 30
PERCENT IN FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS BUT WINDS ARE LIGHT THERE.
NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
630 PM: STATUS FOR TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE. RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST
WE`LL BE ABLE TO SQUEAK BY WITH NO EXCEEDANCE OF THE HIGHER THRESHOLD
VALUES. LATEST NAM DBOFS AND GFS ETSS CONTINUE BLO FLOOD. SITAND
OUR IN-HOUSE PHI CHECK`S SAY MARGINAL. WE`LL CHECK BACK AROUND 8
PM.

A STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT COMBINED WITH INFLUENCE FROM
THE RECENT NEW MOON, MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO OCCUR
WITH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE IN COASTAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, MAINLY FROM CAPE MAY COUNTY SOUTHWARD AND UP THE ALONG THE
DELAWARE BAY AND INTO THE DELAWARE RIVER. THE GUIDANCE MAY STILL BE
RUNNING A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION AND ANY NEED FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY, THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS MAY REMAIN MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND THIS MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
FROM ATLANTIC CITY NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...646





000
FXUS61 KPHI 192246
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
646 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD MIDWEEK BEFORE
STALLING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST EARLY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN
MANY AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A FEW HOURS EARLIER FAR S. THE
RAINS WILL BECOME STEADY OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT. QPF WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
N/E TO A QUARTER INCH S/W.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS IN THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR TERM S AND W.  OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A LARGE BATCH OF STEADY RAINS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND A DECENT QPF UP AROUND AN INCH OR SO WILL OCCUR IN MANY
AREAS. TOTALS UP TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCALIZED
AREAS. WHILE THESE TOTALS ARE ROBUST...THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA PRESENTLY SHOULD KEEP ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT BAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING  MAY OCCUR...BUT
THE LACK OF ANY WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL KEEP US FROM ISSUING ANY
FLOOD FLAGS ATTM. THE RAIN SHIELD WILL PULL TO THE NORTH BY LATE
MORNING AND PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY FOR THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVC N/W DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT BREAKS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

THE MOST RECENT SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
ACROSS MOST OF THE S/W 2/3RDS OF THE CWA FOR TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE AND THIS SHOULD
TOUCH OFF SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. CAPE VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ALSO...SINCE A SHORT BREAK IN THE CLOUDS
WILL HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON TEMPS. WE HAVE A MAV FCST
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN FEW AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER ONTARIO. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NEGATIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
LOW WHILE A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE NEAR CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF PA AND NJ MONDAY EVENING. A SAMPLE OF MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY BEING SUSTAINED IN
THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A S-SWLY LOW-LEVEL
JET HELPING TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7 C/KM BEING CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE DELMARVA TO THE GREATER
PHILLY AREA WHERE MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 750-1250 J/KG ARE FORECAST.
FARTHER NORTH, LIMITED THUNDER TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH FORECAST MUCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG AND WITH MORE CIN FOR CONVECTION TO OVERCOME IN THE
COOL SECTOR. EVEN IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES THAT ARE DEEPER INTO
THE WARM SECTOR, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY BEING NON-
SURFACE BASED AFTER SUNSET.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL MID-
ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN
WESTERLY POST-FRONTAL AND COLDER/DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.
TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH AN END TO THE PRECIP. THE FORECAST IS
NOW DRY FOR TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PA/NORTHWEST NJ AS THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS THRU. A ZONAL FLOW/NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL ENSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MID ATLANTIC
BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE SHOW
PRECIP EXPANDING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
12Z GFS SHOWED A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK STRENGTHENS AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION WOULD ENHANCE BOTH LIFT OVER OUR AREA AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL DECENT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, SO POPS WERE ONLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD WILL EVENTUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF STRATOCU. MAY EVEN SEE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
POCONOS EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH
DAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 60F IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO YIELD
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO DEVELOP AT THE SOME OF COOLER SPOTS IN
EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST NJ EACH NIGHT IF WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE GROWING SEASON
STARTS FOR NORTHEAST PA (EXCEPT CARBON AND MONROE) AND NORTHWEST NJ
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SO FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE DEEP ERLY FLOW AND THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A QUICK INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL GO IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS AND A 6 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF LOW CONDITIONS,
RAIN AND LLWS WILL BE ACROSS THE TERMINALS UNTIL 12Z-14Z MONDAY.
THIS WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY PHL MON MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AND CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BEHIND IT MON AFTERNOON.
RATHER LOW CONFID IN THE FCST LATER MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
ERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND THEN VEER SE TO S DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PRECIP BUT WE MAY ALSO SEE
CIGS/VSBYS TRY TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN STRETCHES OF NO PRECIP.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. W-NW WINDS GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30
KT DURING THE DAY AND SUBSIDE AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHRA INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PREDOMINATELY VFR THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN STEADIER PRECIP.

THURSDAY...VFR. W-NW WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT APPROACH. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE THE
REST OF THE SCA FLAG WITH THE 330 PM CWF ISSUANCE. WINDS GUSTS WILL
BEGIN TO REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS GUIDANCE WAS QUITE BULLISH WITH THE WINDS WITH CLOSE TO
GALES OVERNIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY  BUY THIS ATTM AND KEEP
THE NUMBERS A BIT LOWER. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A MESOLOW CROSSING
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RAIN/FOG OVERNIGHT WITH LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE. A
CONTINUATION OF POOR CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING
TO SUBSIDE LATE. THE PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE. AREAS OF FOG MAY LINGER WITH THE
WATER TEMPS REMAINING VERY COLD AND DEW POINTS OVER THE WATERS QUITE
HIGH.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15-20 KT IN THE EVE WILL SHIFT OUT FROM THE
W-NW OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GIVEN SST IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S AND A WARM THE AIRMASS ABOVE, THE SETUP DOES NOT FAVOR
MUCH MIXING OF HIGHER GUSTS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EVEN IF GUSTS
TO 25 KT WILL BE INFREQUENT, SEAS WILL STILL BE 5-7 FT OFF THE NJ
AND DE COAST. THEREFORE, A SCA IS IN EFFECT.

TUESDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AS DEEPER MIXING ON LAND
WILL YIELD GUSTY WLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST. MEANWHILE,
WINDS FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THESE GUSTS. SEAS WILL
BE AROUND 4-6 FT IN THE MORNING, DIMINISHING TO 2-4 FT LATE IN THE
DAY AND AT NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FOURTH PERIOD SCA IN THIS
MARGINAL SETUP.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCA LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED DUE TO A GUSTY W-NW. AIRMASS
LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED EVEN OUT TO 20 NM
MILES OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH HAS INCREASED GRADUALLY THRUOUT THE DAY HAS INCREASED AS A
RESULT OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONLY LOCATIONS WITH RH BELOW 30
PERCENT IN FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS BUT WINDS ARE LIGHT THERE.
NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
630 PM: STATUS FOR TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE. RECENT TRENDS SUGGEST
WE`LL BE ABLE TO SQUEAK BY WITH NO EXCEEDANCE OF THE HIGHER THRESHOLD
VALUES. LATEST NAM DBOFS AND GFS ETSS CONTINUE BLO FLOOD. SITAND
OUR IN-HOUSE PHI CHECK`S SAY MARGINAL. WE`LL CHECK BACK AROUND 8
PM.

A STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT COMBINED WITH INFLUENCE FROM
THE RECENT NEW MOON, MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO OCCUR
WITH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE IN COASTAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, MAINLY FROM CAPE MAY COUNTY SOUTHWARD AND UP THE ALONG THE
DELAWARE BAY AND INTO THE DELAWARE RIVER. THE GUIDANCE MAY STILL BE
RUNNING A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION AND ANY NEED FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY, THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS MAY REMAIN MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND THIS MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
FROM ATLANTIC CITY NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...646




000
FXUS61 KPHI 192220
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD MIDWEEK BEFORE
STALLING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST EARLY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN
MANY AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A FEW HOURS EARLIER FAR S. THE
RAINS WILL BECOME STEADY OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT. QPF WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
N/E TO A QUARTER INCH S/W.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS IN THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR TERM S AND W.  OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A LARGE BATCH OF STEADY RAINS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND A DECENT QPF UP AROUND AN INCH OR SO WILL OCCUR IN MANY
AREAS. TOTALS UP TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCALIZED
AREAS. WHILE THESE TOTALS ARE ROBUST...THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA PRESENTLY SHOULD KEEP ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT BAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING  MAY OCCUR...BUT
THE LACK OF ANY WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL KEEP US FROM ISSUING ANY
FLOOD FLAGS ATTM. THE RAIN SHIELD WILL PULL TO THE NORTH BY LATE
MORNING AND PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY FOR THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVC N/W DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT BREAKS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

THE MOST RECENT SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
ACROSS MOST OF THE S/W 2/3RDS OF THE CWA FOR TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE AND THIS SHOULD
TOUCH OFF SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. CAPE VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ALSO...SINCE A SHORT BREAK IN THE CLOUDS
WILL HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON TEMPS. WE HAVE A MAV FCST
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN FEW AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER ONTARIO. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NEGATIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
LOW WHILE A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE NEAR CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF PA AND NJ MONDAY EVENING. A SAMPLE OF MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY BEING SUSTAINED IN
THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A S-SWLY LOW-LEVEL
JET HELPING TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7 C/KM BEING CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE DELMARVA TO THE GREATER
PHILLY AREA WHERE MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 750-1250 J/KG ARE FORECAST.
FARTHER NORTH, LIMITED THUNDER TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH FORECAST MUCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG AND WITH MORE CIN FOR CONVECTION TO OVERCOME IN THE
COOL SECTOR. EVEN IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES THAT ARE DEEPER INTO
THE WARM SECTOR, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY BEING NON-
SURFACE BASED AFTER SUNSET.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL MID-
ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN
WESTERLY POST-FRONTAL AND COLDER/DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.
TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH AN END TO THE PRECIP. THE FORECAST IS
NOW DRY FOR TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PA/NORTHWEST NJ AS THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS THRU. A ZONAL FLOW/NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL ENSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MID ATLANTIC
BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE SHOW
PRECIP EXPANDING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
12Z GFS SHOWED A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK STRENGTHENS AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION WOULD ENHANCE BOTH LIFT OVER OUR AREA AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL DECENT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, SO POPS WERE ONLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD WILL EVENTUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF STRATOCU. MAY EVEN SEE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
POCONOS EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH
DAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 60F IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO YIELD
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO DEVELOP AT THE SOME OF COOLER SPOTS IN
EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST NJ EACH NIGHT IF WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE GROWING SEASON
STARTS FOR NORTHEAST PA (EXCEPT CARBON AND MONROE) AND NORTHWEST NJ
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SO FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE DEEP ERLY FLOW AND THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A QUICK INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL GO IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS AND A 6 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF LOW CONDITIONS,
RAIN AND LLWS WILL BE ACROSS THE TERMINALS UNTIL 12Z-14Z MONDAY.
THIS WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY PHL MON MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AND CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BEHIND IT MON AFTERNOON.
RATHER LOW CONFID IN THE FCST LATER MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
ERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND THEN VEER SE TO S DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PRECIP BUT WE MAY ALSO SEE
CIGS/VSBYS TRY TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN STRETCHES OF NO PRECIP.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. W-NW WINDS GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30
KT DURING THE DAY AND SUBSIDE AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHRA INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PREDOMINATELY VFR THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN STEADIER PRECIP.

THURSDAY...VFR. W-NW WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT APPROACH. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE THE
REST OF THE SCA FLAG WITH THE 330 PM CWF ISSUANCE. WINDS GUSTS WILL
BEGIN TO REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS GUIDANCE WAS QUITE BULLISH WITH THE WINDS WITH CLOSE TO
GALES OVERNIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY  BUY THIS ATTM AND KEEP
THE NUMBERS A BIT LOWER. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A MESOLOW CROSSING
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RAIN/FOG OVERNIGHT WITH LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE. A
CONTINUATION OF POOR CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING
TO SUBSIDE LATE. THE PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE. AREAS OF FOG MAY LINGER WITH THE
WATER TEMPS REMAINING VERY COLD AND DEW POINTS OVER THE WATERS QUITE
HIGH.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15-20 KT IN THE EVE WILL SHIFT OUT FROM THE
W-NW OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GIVEN SST IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S AND A WARM THE AIRMASS ABOVE, THE SETUP DOES NOT FAVOR
MUCH MIXING OF HIGHER GUSTS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EVEN IF GUSTS
TO 25 KT WILL BE INFREQUENT, SEAS WILL STILL BE 5-7 FT OFF THE NJ
AND DE COAST. THEREFORE, A SCA IS IN EFFECT.

TUESDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AS DEEPER MIXING ON LAND
WILL YIELD GUSTY WLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST. MEANWHILE,
WINDS FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THESE GUSTS. SEAS WILL
BE AROUND 4-6 FT IN THE MORNING, DIMINISHING TO 2-4 FT LATE IN THE
DAY AND AT NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FOURTH PERIOD SCA IN THIS
MARGINAL SETUP.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCA LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED DUE TO A GUSTY W-NW. AIRMASS
LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED EVEN OUT TO 20 NM
MILES OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH HAS INCREASED GRADUALLY THRUOUT THE DAY HAS INCREASED AS A
RESULT OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONLY LOCATIONS WITH RH BELOW 30
PERCENT IN FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS BUT WINDS ARE LIGHT THERE.
NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT COMBINED WITH INFLUENCE FROM
THE RECENT NEW MOON, MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO OCCUR
WITH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE IN COASTAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, MAINLY FROM CAPE MAY COUNTY SOUTHWARD AND UP THE ALONG THE
DELAWARE BAY AND INTO THE DELAWARE RIVER. THE GUIDANCE MAY STILL BE
RUNNING A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION AND ANY NEED FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY, THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS MAY REMAIN MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND THIS MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
FROM ATLANTIC CITY NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 192220
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD MIDWEEK BEFORE
STALLING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST EARLY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN
MANY AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A FEW HOURS EARLIER FAR S. THE
RAINS WILL BECOME STEADY OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT. QPF WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
N/E TO A QUARTER INCH S/W.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS IN THE IMMEDIATE
NEAR TERM S AND W.  OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A LARGE BATCH OF STEADY RAINS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND A DECENT QPF UP AROUND AN INCH OR SO WILL OCCUR IN MANY
AREAS. TOTALS UP TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCALIZED
AREAS. WHILE THESE TOTALS ARE ROBUST...THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA PRESENTLY SHOULD KEEP ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT BAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING  MAY OCCUR...BUT
THE LACK OF ANY WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL KEEP US FROM ISSUING ANY
FLOOD FLAGS ATTM. THE RAIN SHIELD WILL PULL TO THE NORTH BY LATE
MORNING AND PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY FOR THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVC N/W DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT BREAKS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

THE MOST RECENT SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
ACROSS MOST OF THE S/W 2/3RDS OF THE CWA FOR TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE AND THIS SHOULD
TOUCH OFF SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. CAPE VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ALSO...SINCE A SHORT BREAK IN THE CLOUDS
WILL HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON TEMPS. WE HAVE A MAV FCST
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN FEW AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER ONTARIO. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NEGATIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
LOW WHILE A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE NEAR CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF PA AND NJ MONDAY EVENING. A SAMPLE OF MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY BEING SUSTAINED IN
THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A S-SWLY LOW-LEVEL
JET HELPING TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7 C/KM BEING CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE DELMARVA TO THE GREATER
PHILLY AREA WHERE MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 750-1250 J/KG ARE FORECAST.
FARTHER NORTH, LIMITED THUNDER TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH FORECAST MUCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG AND WITH MORE CIN FOR CONVECTION TO OVERCOME IN THE
COOL SECTOR. EVEN IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES THAT ARE DEEPER INTO
THE WARM SECTOR, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY BEING NON-
SURFACE BASED AFTER SUNSET.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL MID-
ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN
WESTERLY POST-FRONTAL AND COLDER/DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.
TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH AN END TO THE PRECIP. THE FORECAST IS
NOW DRY FOR TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PA/NORTHWEST NJ AS THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS THRU. A ZONAL FLOW/NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL ENSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MID ATLANTIC
BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE SHOW
PRECIP EXPANDING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
12Z GFS SHOWED A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK STRENGTHENS AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION WOULD ENHANCE BOTH LIFT OVER OUR AREA AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL DECENT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, SO POPS WERE ONLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD WILL EVENTUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF STRATOCU. MAY EVEN SEE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
POCONOS EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH
DAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 60F IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO YIELD
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO DEVELOP AT THE SOME OF COOLER SPOTS IN
EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST NJ EACH NIGHT IF WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE GROWING SEASON
STARTS FOR NORTHEAST PA (EXCEPT CARBON AND MONROE) AND NORTHWEST NJ
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SO FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE DEEP ERLY FLOW AND THE
APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A QUICK INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY
DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT THAT CONDITIONS WILL GO IFR AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS AND A 6 TO 8 HOUR PERIOD OF LOW CONDITIONS,
RAIN AND LLWS WILL BE ACROSS THE TERMINALS UNTIL 12Z-14Z MONDAY.
THIS WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY PHL MON MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA MONDAY AND CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BEHIND IT MON AFTERNOON.
RATHER LOW CONFID IN THE FCST LATER MON MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
ERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND THEN VEER SE TO S DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PRECIP BUT WE MAY ALSO SEE
CIGS/VSBYS TRY TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN STRETCHES OF NO PRECIP.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. W-NW WINDS GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30
KT DURING THE DAY AND SUBSIDE AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHRA INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PREDOMINATELY VFR THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN STEADIER PRECIP.

THURSDAY...VFR. W-NW WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT APPROACH. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE THE
REST OF THE SCA FLAG WITH THE 330 PM CWF ISSUANCE. WINDS GUSTS WILL
BEGIN TO REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS GUIDANCE WAS QUITE BULLISH WITH THE WINDS WITH CLOSE TO
GALES OVERNIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY  BUY THIS ATTM AND KEEP
THE NUMBERS A BIT LOWER. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A MESOLOW CROSSING
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RAIN/FOG OVERNIGHT WITH LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE. A
CONTINUATION OF POOR CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING
TO SUBSIDE LATE. THE PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE. AREAS OF FOG MAY LINGER WITH THE
WATER TEMPS REMAINING VERY COLD AND DEW POINTS OVER THE WATERS QUITE
HIGH.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15-20 KT IN THE EVE WILL SHIFT OUT FROM THE
W-NW OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GIVEN SST IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S AND A WARM THE AIRMASS ABOVE, THE SETUP DOES NOT FAVOR
MUCH MIXING OF HIGHER GUSTS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EVEN IF GUSTS
TO 25 KT WILL BE INFREQUENT, SEAS WILL STILL BE 5-7 FT OFF THE NJ
AND DE COAST. THEREFORE, A SCA IS IN EFFECT.

TUESDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AS DEEPER MIXING ON LAND
WILL YIELD GUSTY WLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST. MEANWHILE,
WINDS FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THESE GUSTS. SEAS WILL
BE AROUND 4-6 FT IN THE MORNING, DIMINISHING TO 2-4 FT LATE IN THE
DAY AND AT NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FOURTH PERIOD SCA IN THIS
MARGINAL SETUP.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCA LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED DUE TO A GUSTY W-NW. AIRMASS
LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED EVEN OUT TO 20 NM
MILES OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH HAS INCREASED GRADUALLY THRUOUT THE DAY HAS INCREASED AS A
RESULT OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONLY LOCATIONS WITH RH BELOW 30
PERCENT IN FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS BUT WINDS ARE LIGHT THERE.
NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT COMBINED WITH INFLUENCE FROM
THE RECENT NEW MOON, MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO OCCUR
WITH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE IN COASTAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, MAINLY FROM CAPE MAY COUNTY SOUTHWARD AND UP THE ALONG THE
DELAWARE BAY AND INTO THE DELAWARE RIVER. THE GUIDANCE MAY STILL BE
RUNNING A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION AND ANY NEED FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY, THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS MAY REMAIN MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND THIS MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
FROM ATLANTIC CITY NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 191959
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD MIDWEEK BEFORE
STALLING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST EARLY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN
MANY AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A FEW HOURS EARLIER FAR S. THE
RAINS WILL BECOME STEADY OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT. QPF WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
N/E TO A QUARTER INCH S/W.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A LARGE BATCH OF STEADY RAINS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND A DECENT QPF UP AROUND AN INCH OR SO WILL OCCUR IN MANY
AREAS. TOTALS UP TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCALIZED
AREAS. WHILE THESE TOTALS ARE ROBUST...THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA PRESENTLY SHOULD KEEP ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT BAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING  MAY OCCUR...BUT
THE LACK OF ANY WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL KEEP US FROM ISSUING ANY
FLOOD FLAGS ATTM. THE RAIN SHIELD WILL PULL TO THE NORTH BY LATE
MORNING AND PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY FOR THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVC N/W DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT BREAKS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

THE MOST RECENT SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
ACROSS MOST OF THE S/W 2/3RDS OF THE CWA FOR TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE AND THIS SHOULD
TOUCH OFF SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. CAPE VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ALSO...SINCE A SHORT BREAK IN THE CLOUDS
WILL HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON TEMPS. WE HAVE A MAV FCST
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN FEW AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER ONTARIO. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NEGATIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
LOW WHILE A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE NEAR CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF PA AND NJ MONDAY EVENING. A SAMPLE OF MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY BEING SUSTAINED IN
THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A S-SWLY LOW-LEVEL
JET HELPING TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7 C/KM BEING CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE DELMARVA TO THE GREATER
PHILLY AREA WHERE MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 750-1250 J/KG ARE FORECAST.
FARTHER NORTH, LIMITED THUNDER TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH FORECAST MUCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG AND WITH MORE CIN FOR CONVECTION TO OVERCOME IN THE
COOL SECTOR. EVEN IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES THAT ARE DEEPER INTO
THE WARM SECTOR, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY BEING NON-
SURFACE BASED AFTER SUNSET.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL MID-
ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN
WESTERLY POST-FRONTAL AND COLDER/DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.
TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH AN END TO THE PRECIP. THE FORECAST IS
NOW DRY FOR TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PA/NORTHWEST NJ AS THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS THRU. A ZONAL FLOW/NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL ENSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MID ATLANTIC
BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE SHOW
PRECIP EXPANDING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
12Z GFS SHOWED A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK STRENGTHENS AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION WOULD ENHANCE BOTH LIFT OVER OUR AREA AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL DECENT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, SO POPS WERE ONLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD WILL EVENTUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF STRATOCU. MAY EVEN SEE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
POCONOS EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH
DAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 60F IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO YIELD
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO DEVELOP AT THE SOME OF COOLER SPOTS IN
EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST NJ EACH NIGHT IF WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE GROWING SEASON
STARTS FOR NORTHEAST PA (EXCEPT CARBON AND MONROE) AND NORTHWEST NJ
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SO FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE DEEP ERLY FLOW AND THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A QUICK INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT
THAT CONDITIONS WILL GO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS AND A 6 TO
8 HOUR PERIOD OF LOW CONDITIONS, RAIN AND LLWS WILL BE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS UNTIL 12Z-14Z MONDAY. THIS WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON TRAVEL
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...ESPECIALLY PHL MON MORNING. A WARM FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BEHIND IT MON
AFTERNOON. RATHER LOW CONFID IN THE FCST LATER MON MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE ERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND THEN VEER SE TO S DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PRECIP BUT WE MAY ALSO SEE
CIGS/VSBYS TRY TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN STRETCHES OF NO PRECIP.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. W-NW WINDS GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30
KT DURING THE DAY AND SUBSIDE AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHRA INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PREDOMINATELY VFR THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN STEADIER PRECIP.

THURSDAY...VFR. W-NW WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT APPROACH. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE THE
REST OF THE SCA FLAG WITH THE 330 PM CWF ISSUANCE. WINDS GUSTS WILL
BEGIN TO REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS GUIDANCE WAS QUITE BULLISH WITH THE WINDS WITH CLOSE TO
GALES OVERNIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY  BUY THIS ATTM AND KEEP
THE NUMBERS A BIT LOWER. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A MESOLOW CROSSING
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RAIN/FOG OVERNIGHT WITH LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE. A
CONTINUATION OF POOR CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING
TO SUBSIDE LATE. THE PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE. AREAS OF FOG MAY LINGER WITH THE
WATER TEMPS REMAINING VERY COLD AND DEW POINTS OVER THE WATERS QUITE
HIGH.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15-20 KT IN THE EVE WILL SHIFT OUT FROM THE
W-NW OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GIVEN SST IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S AND A WARM THE AIRMASS ABOVE, THE SETUP DOES NOT FAVOR
MUCH MIXING OF HIGHER GUSTS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EVEN IF GUSTS
TO 25 KT WILL BE INFREQUENT, SEAS WILL STILL BE 5-7 FT OFF THE NJ
AND DE COAST. THEREFORE, A SCA IS IN EFFECT.

TUESDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AS DEEPER MIXING ON LAND
WILL YIELD GUSTY WLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST. MEANWHILE,
WINDS FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THESE GUSTS. SEAS WILL
BE AROUND 4-6 FT IN THE MORNING, DIMINISHING TO 2-4 FT LATE IN THE
DAY AND AT NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FOURTH PERIOD SCA IN THIS
MARGINAL SETUP.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCA LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED DUE TO A GUSTY W-NW. AIRMASS
LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED EVEN OUT TO 20 NM
MILES OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH HAS INCREASED GRADUALLY THRUOUT THE DAY HAS INCREASED AS A
RESULT OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONLY LOCATIONS WITH RH BELOW 30
PERCENT IN FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS BUT WINDS ARE LIGHT THERE.
NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT COMBINED WITH INFLUENCE FROM
THE RECENT NEW MOON, MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO OCCUR
WITH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE IN COASTAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, MAINLY FROM CAPE MAY COUNTY SOUTHWARD AND UP THE ALONG THE
DELAWARE BAY AND INTO THE DELAWARE RIVER. THE GUIDANCE MAY STILL BE
RUNNING A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION AND ANY NEED FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY, THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS MAY REMAIN MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND THIS MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
FROM ATLANTIC CITY NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 191959
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
THE LOW WILL LIFT INTO ONTARIO CANADA EARLY IN THE WEEK. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD MIDWEEK BEFORE
STALLING OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TO THE EAST EARLY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND RAIN WILL ARRIVE IN
MANY AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAYBE A FEW HOURS EARLIER FAR S. THE
RAINS WILL BECOME STEADY OVERNIGHT AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S SOUTH. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT. QPF WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH
N/E TO A QUARTER INCH S/W.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A LARGE BATCH OF STEADY RAINS WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND A DECENT QPF UP AROUND AN INCH OR SO WILL OCCUR IN MANY
AREAS. TOTALS UP TO 1.5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCALIZED
AREAS. WHILE THESE TOTALS ARE ROBUST...THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA PRESENTLY SHOULD KEEP ANY FLOODING CONCERNS AT BAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING  MAY OCCUR...BUT
THE LACK OF ANY WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL KEEP US FROM ISSUING ANY
FLOOD FLAGS ATTM. THE RAIN SHIELD WILL PULL TO THE NORTH BY LATE
MORNING AND PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE SHOWERY FOR THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVC N/W DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT BREAKS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ.

THE MOST RECENT SPC DAY2 OUTLOOK HAS PUSHED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
ACROSS MOST OF THE S/W 2/3RDS OF THE CWA FOR TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE AND THIS SHOULD
TOUCH OFF SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. CAPE VALUES
SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE SRN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY ALSO...SINCE A SHORT BREAK IN THE CLOUDS
WILL HAVE A PROFOUND IMPACT ON TEMPS. WE HAVE A MAV FCST
FOR THE MOST PART...WITH A FEW DEGREES LOWER IN FEW AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AN UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/LAKE
SUPERIOR ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER OVER ONTARIO. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NEGATIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH/OCCLUDED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
LOW WHILE A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE SOMEWHERE NEAR CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF PA AND NJ MONDAY EVENING. A SAMPLE OF MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA SHOW MODEST INSTABILITY BEING SUSTAINED IN
THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A S-SWLY LOW-LEVEL
JET HELPING TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
NEAR 7 C/KM BEING CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE. WILL MENTION A CHANCE FOR
THUNDER SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT FROM THE DELMARVA TO THE GREATER
PHILLY AREA WHERE MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 750-1250 J/KG ARE FORECAST.
FARTHER NORTH, LIMITED THUNDER TO SLIGHT CHANCE WITH FORECAST MUCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG AND WITH MORE CIN FOR CONVECTION TO OVERCOME IN THE
COOL SECTOR. EVEN IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES THAT ARE DEEPER INTO
THE WARM SECTOR, FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INSTABILITY BEING NON-
SURFACE BASED AFTER SUNSET.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
MIDWEEK. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL MID-
ATLANTIC LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN
WESTERLY POST-FRONTAL AND COLDER/DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.
TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH AN END TO THE PRECIP. THE FORECAST IS
NOW DRY FOR TUESDAY EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST PA/NORTHWEST NJ AS THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTS THRU. A ZONAL FLOW/NEUTRAL THERMAL ADVECTION
PATTERN WILL ENSUE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE MID ATLANTIC
BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS FROM THE 12Z GUIDANCE SHOW
PRECIP EXPANDING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE THRU THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
12Z GFS SHOWED A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO HOW
QUICKLY THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK STRENGTHENS AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT
REGION WOULD ENHANCE BOTH LIFT OVER OUR AREA AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP.
HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL DECENT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS
SYSTEM, SO POPS WERE ONLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD WILL EVENTUALLY PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP A COOL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA
ALONG WITH PERIODS OF STRATOCU. MAY EVEN SEE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
POCONOS EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH
DAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO NEAR 60F IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO YIELD
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THERE IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO DEVELOP AT THE SOME OF COOLER SPOTS IN
EASTERN PA AND NORTHWEST NJ EACH NIGHT IF WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. THE GROWING SEASON
STARTS FOR NORTHEAST PA (EXCEPT CARBON AND MONROE) AND NORTHWEST NJ
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, SO FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. THE DEEP ERLY FLOW AND THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT WILL
COMBINE TO PRODUCE A QUICK INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT. WE EXPECT
THAT CONDITIONS WILL GO IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS AND A 6 TO
8 HOUR PERIOD OF LOW CONDITIONS, RAIN AND LLWS WILL BE ACROSS THE
TERMINALS UNTIL 12Z-14Z MONDAY. THIS WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON TRAVEL
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...ESPECIALLY PHL MON MORNING. A WARM FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE BEHIND IT MON
AFTERNOON. RATHER LOW CONFID IN THE FCST LATER MON MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE ERLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING AND THEN VEER SE TO S DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PRECIP BUT WE MAY ALSO SEE
CIGS/VSBYS TRY TO IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR IN STRETCHES OF NO PRECIP.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. W-NW WINDS GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30
KT DURING THE DAY AND SUBSIDE AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CHANCES FOR SHRA INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. PREDOMINATELY VFR THOUGH
LOCALIZED MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN STEADIER PRECIP.

THURSDAY...VFR. W-NW WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT APPROACH. WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE THE
REST OF THE SCA FLAG WITH THE 330 PM CWF ISSUANCE. WINDS GUSTS WILL
BEGIN TO REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS GUIDANCE WAS QUITE BULLISH WITH THE WINDS WITH CLOSE TO
GALES OVERNIGHT...BUT WE WILL NOT COMPLETELY  BUY THIS ATTM AND KEEP
THE NUMBERS A BIT LOWER. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE A MESOLOW CROSSING
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. RAIN/FOG OVERNIGHT WITH LOW VSBYS POSSIBLE. A
CONTINUATION OF POOR CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BEGINNING
TO SUBSIDE LATE. THE PCPN SHOULD BECOME MORE SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH TSTMS POSSIBLE. AREAS OF FOG MAY LINGER WITH THE
WATER TEMPS REMAINING VERY COLD AND DEW POINTS OVER THE WATERS QUITE
HIGH.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT...SW WINDS 15-20 KT IN THE EVE WILL SHIFT OUT FROM THE
W-NW OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. GIVEN SST IN THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S AND A WARM THE AIRMASS ABOVE, THE SETUP DOES NOT FAVOR
MUCH MIXING OF HIGHER GUSTS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EVEN IF GUSTS
TO 25 KT WILL BE INFREQUENT, SEAS WILL STILL BE 5-7 FT OFF THE NJ
AND DE COAST. THEREFORE, A SCA IS IN EFFECT.

TUESDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AS DEEPER MIXING ON LAND
WILL YIELD GUSTY WLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST. MEANWHILE,
WINDS FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL LIKELY NOT SEE THESE GUSTS. SEAS WILL
BE AROUND 4-6 FT IN THE MORNING, DIMINISHING TO 2-4 FT LATE IN THE
DAY AND AT NIGHT. WILL HOLD OFF ON A FOURTH PERIOD SCA IN THIS
MARGINAL SETUP.

WEDNESDAY...SW WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR SCA LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED DUE TO A GUSTY W-NW. AIRMASS
LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FOR GUSTY WINDS TO BE SUSTAINED EVEN OUT TO 20 NM
MILES OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH HAS INCREASED GRADUALLY THRUOUT THE DAY HAS INCREASED AS A
RESULT OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE ONLY LOCATIONS WITH RH BELOW 30
PERCENT IN FAR NW NJ AND THE POCONOS BUT WINDS ARE LIGHT THERE.
NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA THRU
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT COMBINED WITH INFLUENCE FROM
THE RECENT NEW MOON, MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TO OCCUR
WITH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE IN COASTAL DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, MAINLY FROM CAPE MAY COUNTY SOUTHWARD AND UP THE ALONG THE
DELAWARE BAY AND INTO THE DELAWARE RIVER. THE GUIDANCE MAY STILL BE
RUNNING A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION AND ANY NEED FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION MONDAY, THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS MAY REMAIN MORE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND THIS MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
FROM ATLANTIC CITY NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...KLEIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 191300
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT
INTO CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
INTO A PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND, A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN
FROM QUEBEC FOR TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS
OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS
THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY
BY ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF
50 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL
LIKELY INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE
TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS
BASED ON THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS
LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY,
WHICH THEN CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN
BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST
NOTABLE PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS
THE PATTERN CHANGES INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE
IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE
PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW
INTO THE AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE
CLOSEST TO OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME
FROST IN PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE
OF LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.
WE MAINLY BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN
THIS EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT
RESULTING IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE
LOCATED OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS
WITH POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
MORNING AS A LOW- LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE
MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY
5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY
NEAR AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY
NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE THE SCA FLAG A BIT EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED SINCE THE GUSTS ARE ALREADY ABOVE 20 KNOTS
AT THE BUOYS AT THE MOUTH OF DEL BAY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATED BUOYS
ARE ABOVE G25 ATTM. WE HAVE LEFT THE TIMING FOR THE OTHER AREAS AS
IT WAS BEFORE.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND
ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE
WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY.
HOWEVER, RATHER STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE
THE SURFACE. THE GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD
INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD
BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND
DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF
MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN
TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE
EXTENDED IT TO 10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED MORE DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT
BELOW WAVE WATCH AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE
WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20
MPH RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE,
THE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR
WILDFIRE SPREAD IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS BRINGING TIDE LEVELS CLOSE TO THE
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. WE ARE CONCERNED THAT THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT
LOW CONSIDERING THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH THAT IS DEVELOPING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION ON MONDAY
CAUSING THE WIND TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE EASTERLY WIND
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
NEW JERSEY COAST. THERE IS THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING ON MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY
NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 191300
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT
INTO CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
INTO A PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND, A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN
FROM QUEBEC FOR TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS
OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS
THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY
BY ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF
50 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL
LIKELY INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE
TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS
BASED ON THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS
LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY,
WHICH THEN CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN
BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST
NOTABLE PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS
THE PATTERN CHANGES INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE
IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE
PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW
INTO THE AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE
CLOSEST TO OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME
FROST IN PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE
OF LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.
WE MAINLY BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN
THIS EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT
RESULTING IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE
LOCATED OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS
WITH POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
MORNING AS A LOW- LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE
MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY
5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY
NEAR AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY
NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE THE SCA FLAG A BIT EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED SINCE THE GUSTS ARE ALREADY ABOVE 20 KNOTS
AT THE BUOYS AT THE MOUTH OF DEL BAY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATED BUOYS
ARE ABOVE G25 ATTM. WE HAVE LEFT THE TIMING FOR THE OTHER AREAS AS
IT WAS BEFORE.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND
ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE
WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY.
HOWEVER, RATHER STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE
THE SURFACE. THE GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD
INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD
BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND
DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF
MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN
TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE
EXTENDED IT TO 10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED MORE DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT
BELOW WAVE WATCH AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE
WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20
MPH RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE,
THE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR
WILDFIRE SPREAD IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS BRINGING TIDE LEVELS CLOSE TO THE
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. WE ARE CONCERNED THAT THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT
LOW CONSIDERING THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH THAT IS DEVELOPING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION ON MONDAY
CAUSING THE WIND TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE EASTERLY WIND
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
NEW JERSEY COAST. THERE IS THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING ON MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY
NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 191300
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT
INTO CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
INTO A PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND, A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN
FROM QUEBEC FOR TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS
OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS
THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY
BY ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF
50 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL
LIKELY INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE
TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS
BASED ON THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS
LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY,
WHICH THEN CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN
BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST
NOTABLE PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS
THE PATTERN CHANGES INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE
IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE
PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW
INTO THE AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE
CLOSEST TO OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME
FROST IN PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE
OF LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.
WE MAINLY BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN
THIS EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT
RESULTING IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE
LOCATED OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS
WITH POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
MORNING AS A LOW- LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE
MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY
5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY
NEAR AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY
NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE THE SCA FLAG A BIT EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED SINCE THE GUSTS ARE ALREADY ABOVE 20 KNOTS
AT THE BUOYS AT THE MOUTH OF DEL BAY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATED BUOYS
ARE ABOVE G25 ATTM. WE HAVE LEFT THE TIMING FOR THE OTHER AREAS AS
IT WAS BEFORE.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND
ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE
WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY.
HOWEVER, RATHER STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE
THE SURFACE. THE GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD
INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD
BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND
DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF
MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN
TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE
EXTENDED IT TO 10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED MORE DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT
BELOW WAVE WATCH AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE
WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20
MPH RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE,
THE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR
WILDFIRE SPREAD IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS BRINGING TIDE LEVELS CLOSE TO THE
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. WE ARE CONCERNED THAT THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT
LOW CONSIDERING THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH THAT IS DEVELOPING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION ON MONDAY
CAUSING THE WIND TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE EASTERLY WIND
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
NEW JERSEY COAST. THERE IS THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING ON MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY
NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 191300
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
900 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT
INTO CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
INTO A PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND, A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN
FROM QUEBEC FOR TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS
OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS
THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY
BY ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF
50 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL
LIKELY INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE
TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS
BASED ON THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS
LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY,
WHICH THEN CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN
BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST
NOTABLE PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS
THE PATTERN CHANGES INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE
IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE
PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW
INTO THE AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE
CLOSEST TO OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME
FROST IN PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE
OF LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.
WE MAINLY BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN
THIS EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT
RESULTING IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE
LOCATED OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS
WITH POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
MORNING AS A LOW- LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE
MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY
5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY
NEAR AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY
NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

WE HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE THE SCA FLAG A BIT EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED SINCE THE GUSTS ARE ALREADY ABOVE 20 KNOTS
AT THE BUOYS AT THE MOUTH OF DEL BAY AND THE HIGHER ELEVATED BUOYS
ARE ABOVE G25 ATTM. WE HAVE LEFT THE TIMING FOR THE OTHER AREAS AS
IT WAS BEFORE.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND
ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE
WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY.
HOWEVER, RATHER STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE
THE SURFACE. THE GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD
INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD
BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND
DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF
MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN
TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE
EXTENDED IT TO 10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED MORE DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT
BELOW WAVE WATCH AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE
WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20
MPH RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE,
THE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR
WILDFIRE SPREAD IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS BRINGING TIDE LEVELS CLOSE TO THE
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. WE ARE CONCERNED THAT THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT
LOW CONSIDERING THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH THAT IS DEVELOPING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION ON MONDAY
CAUSING THE WIND TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE EASTERLY WIND
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
NEW JERSEY COAST. THERE IS THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING ON MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY
NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 191032
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
632 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT
INTO CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
INTO A PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND, A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN
FROM QUEBEC FOR TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS
OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS
THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY
BY ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF
50 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL
LIKELY INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE
TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS
BASED ON THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS
LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY,
WHICH THEN CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN
BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST
NOTABLE PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS
THE PATTERN CHANGES INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE
IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE
PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW
INTO THE AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE
CLOSEST TO OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME
FROST IN PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE
OF LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.
WE MAINLY BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN
THIS EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT
RESULTING IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE
LOCATED OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS
WITH POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
MORNING AS A LOW- LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE
MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY
5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY
NEAR AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY
NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET, NEW JERSEY SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE
AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY AT NOON TODAY. THE EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED OCEAN WATERS
TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WIND GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT THAT TIME. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH
OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE
AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY.
HOWEVER, RATHER STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE
THE SURFACE. THE GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD
INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD
BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND
DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF
MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN
TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE
EXTENDED IT TO 10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED MORE DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT
BELOW WAVE WATCH AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE
WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20
MPH RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE,
THE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR
WILDFIRE SPREAD IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS BRINGING TIDE LEVELS CLOSE TO THE
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. WE ARE CONCERNED THAT THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT
LOW CONSIDERING THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH THAT IS DEVELOPING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION ON MONDAY
CAUSING THE WIND TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE EASTERLY WIND
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
NEW JERSEY COAST. THERE IS THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING ON MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY
NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 191032
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
632 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT
INTO CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
INTO A PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND, A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN
FROM QUEBEC FOR TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR
REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS
OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS
THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
ARE FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY
BY ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF
50 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL
LIKELY INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE
TO AN INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS
BASED ON THE RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS
LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY,
WHICH THEN CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN
BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST
NOTABLE PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS
THE PATTERN CHANGES INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE
IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE
PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN
THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW
INTO THE AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE
CLOSEST TO OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC
FLOW WILL RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME
FROST IN PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER
THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE
OF LOWER CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES.
WE MAINLY BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD.
THE WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN
THIS EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT
RESULTING IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE
WIND WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE
LOCATED OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS
WITH POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
MORNING AS A LOW- LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT.
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE
MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY
5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY
NEAR AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY
NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET, NEW JERSEY SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE
AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY AT NOON TODAY. THE EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED OCEAN WATERS
TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WIND GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT THAT TIME. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH
OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE
AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY.
HOWEVER, RATHER STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE
THE SURFACE. THE GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD
INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD
BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND
DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF
MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN
TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE
EXTENDED IT TO 10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED MORE DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT
BELOW WAVE WATCH AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE
WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20
MPH RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL
KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE,
THE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR
WILDFIRE SPREAD IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS BRINGING TIDE LEVELS CLOSE TO THE
MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD IN NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR THIS
EVENING`S HIGH TIDE. WE ARE CONCERNED THAT THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT
LOW CONSIDERING THE LONG EASTERLY FETCH THAT IS DEVELOPING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR A POSSIBLE COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY.

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT THROUGH OUR REGION ON MONDAY
CAUSING THE WIND TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, THE EASTERLY WIND
MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
NEW JERSEY COAST. THERE IS THE CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
TIDAL FLOODING ON MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM ATLANTIC CITY
NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO





000
FXUS61 KPHI 190740
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT INTO
CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO A
PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS TO
THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM QUEBEC FOR
TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS OF
OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS THE
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY BY
ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS BASED ON THE
RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY, WHICH THEN
CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN BECOME CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE PRECIPITATION
EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS THE PATTERN CHANGES
INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE
AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE CLOSEST TO
OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN
PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. WE MAINLY
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THE
WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12
KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN THIS
EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT RESULTING
IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL
REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED
OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS WITH
POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS A LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR
AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY NEAR
10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET, NEW JERSEY SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE
AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY AT NOON TODAY. THE EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED OCEAN WATERS
TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WIND GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT THAT TIME. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH
OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE
AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY. HOWEVER, RATHER
STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE
GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF
GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER
PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A
GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE EXTENDED IT TO
10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED MORE
DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT BELOW WAVEWATCH
AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN
MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH
RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA IN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE, THE FORECAST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD
IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO





000
FXUS61 KPHI 190740
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT INTO
CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO A
PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS TO
THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM QUEBEC FOR
TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS OF
OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS THE
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY BY
ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS BASED ON THE
RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY, WHICH THEN
CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN BECOME CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE PRECIPITATION
EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS THE PATTERN CHANGES
INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE
AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE CLOSEST TO
OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN
PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. WE MAINLY
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THE
WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12
KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN THIS
EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT RESULTING
IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL
REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED
OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS WITH
POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS A LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR
AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY NEAR
10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET, NEW JERSEY SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE
AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY AT NOON TODAY. THE EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED OCEAN WATERS
TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WIND GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT THAT TIME. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH
OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE
AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY. HOWEVER, RATHER
STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE
GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF
GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER
PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A
GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE EXTENDED IT TO
10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED MORE
DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT BELOW WAVEWATCH
AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN
MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH
RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA IN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE, THE FORECAST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD
IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 190740
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING WILL THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE ORGANIZING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT WILL LIFT INTO
CANADA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO A
PORTION OF OUR REGION MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER ONE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL PROGRESS TO
THE EAST AND ITS AXIS IS FORECAST TO PASS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM QUEBEC FOR
TODAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EVEN WITH A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CIRRUS OVERHEAD.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE EAST FOR TODAY DUE TO THE
CIRCULATION AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH IN MUCH OF OUR REGION.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN OUR HIGHEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WHERE READINGS SHOULD
GET INTO THE MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 60. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FAVOR THE LOWER 60S ON THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO DRIFT OFF THE OCEAN AND OVER PARTS OF
OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TOWARD EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE INLAND OFF THE OCEAN AS THE
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO FAVOR THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON
THE COASTAL PLAIN.

RAIN WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO REACH A LINE FROM THE
POCONOS TO PHILADELPHIA TO CAPE MAY AROUND 200 AM WITH THE
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER OF NEW JERSEY BY
ABOUT 400 AM.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET OF 50
KNOTS OR GREATER OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN. THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL LIKELY
INCREASE RAINFALL RATES AT THAT TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES.

WE ARE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, CLOSE TO AN
INCH POSSIBLE. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THOSE TOTALS BASED ON THE
RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE IS LIKELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY, WHICH THEN
CLOSES OFF AND STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ELONGATE INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE AROUND IT, HOWEVER IT SHOULD THEN BECOME CENTERED
OVER NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE MOST NOTABLE PRECIPITATION
EVENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME IS ON MONDAY AS THE PATTERN CHANGES
INTO A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED ONE. GIVEN THE SURGE IN MOISTURE, THE RAIN
COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES MONDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER
RESULTS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A DEEPENING AND INCREASINGLY CLOSING OFF
LOW RESULTS IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
START WHICH THEN LIFTS INTO CANADA. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET DURING
MONDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP MOISTURE, LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING RESULTS IN AN AREA OF RAIN
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THUNDER
ATTM. THE PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.5 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SOME
HEAVIER RAIN. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY NOT BE CLEAN AND MAY NOT CLEAR OUR ENTIRE CWA
BUT IT SHOULD GET INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY. IT APPEARS AN
AREA OF MID LEVEL DRYING OVERSPREADS THE REGION AS THE STRONG LIFT
AND LOW-LEVEL JET CLEARS OUR CWA BY ABOUT THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS MAY RESULT IN A LULL, THEN INCOMING LIFT WITH THE
COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT ALONG WITH COOLING ALOFT SHOULD TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. IT IS AT THIS TIME WHEN SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR. THERE MAY BE TWO TARGET AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ONE BEING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES /INCOMING SHORT
WAVE AND FRONT/ AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE DELMARVA /SHORT WAVE AND
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH/. THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY HAVE BETTER
INSTABILITY AS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD ARRIVE SOONER. IF WE CAN
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH, SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST SOME LINE SEGMENTS OR
MULTICELL/CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE THUNDER MENTION WAS
EXPANDED NORTH A BIT MORE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY MORNING ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW
FOR GUSTY ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

A WEAK LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT, AND THIS ALONG
WITH THE COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR EAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH WILL PROVIDE CYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE
AREA, AND WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY NEARBY A FEW SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AND THESE WILL ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA, PULLING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL COOLING BEHIND IT. THE CLOSED LOW LOOKS TO BE CLOSEST TO
OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AND THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
RESULT IN EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE COULD BE SOME FROST IN
PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, HOWEVER THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND WINDS. THE DETAILS ARE OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS IT WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF
THE CLOSED LOW AS WELL AS THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES. WE MAINLY
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THE
WIND WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AT SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 12
KNOTS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE OCEAN THIS
EVENING, LOWERING CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD OUR TAF SITES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT RESULTING
IN A FURTHER DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE WIND WILL
REMAIN FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL EAST AND SOUTHWARD.

A 50 PLUS KNOT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY JET IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED
OVER OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING, THEN SOME SHOWERS WITH
POTENTIALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS A LOW-
LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH WITH A WARM FRONT. SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY EARLY IN THE MORNING ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST, THEN TURNING SOUTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR
AND NORTH/WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM KTTN TO KPHL METRO AND KILG TO THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS MAINLY NEAR
10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WE WILL BEGIN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM
LITTLE EGG INLET, NEW JERSEY SOUTHWARD TO FENWICK ISLAND, DELAWARE
AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY AT NOON TODAY. THE EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD CAUSE WAVE HEIGHTS ON THE ABOVE MENTIONED OCEAN WATERS
TO BUILD TO 5 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND WIND GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA WILL APPROACH 25 KNOTS AT THAT TIME. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND ACROSS OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH
OF LITTLE EGG INLET AND TO THE WATERS OF UPPER DELAWARE BAY THIS
EVENING. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BEGIN FOR THOSE
AREAS AT 600 PM.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A POTENT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION IN PLACE AND THEREFORE MORE STABILITY. HOWEVER, RATHER
STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT TO FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE. THE
GFS DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONGER, AND THIS WOULD INTRODUCE A PERIOD OF
GALES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS AS THERE IS A LONGER
PERIOD OF EASTERLY INFLOW. THIS COULD BE OVERDONE AND SINCE OUR
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE MAGNITUDE AND DURATION, WE HELD OFF ON A
GALE WATCH AND MAINTAINED A STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET EXITS, THEN TURN WESTERLY TUESDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO THE 5-9 FOOT RANGE ON THE OCEAN AND THEN
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ON THE BAY ENDS AT 14Z MONDAY, AND ON THE OCEAN WE EXTENDED IT TO
10Z TUESDAY FOR ELEVATED SEAS. IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED MORE
DEPENDING ON HOW THE SEAS BEHAVE /WE DID GO A FOOT BELOW WAVEWATCH
AS THE GFS MAY BE TO STRONG WITH THE SURFACE WINDS MONDAY/.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME INCREASE IN THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY, THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE 20S DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NEW JERSEY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S IN
MUCH OF DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND. FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRY TODAY.

IT APPEARS AS THOUGH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH
RANGE IN MUCH OF OUR REGION TODAY.

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA IN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE, THE FORECAST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE CONCERN FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD
IN DELAWARE AND IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR ANZ430.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 190127
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF MORE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH ONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AND ANOTHER LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM WRLY/SWRLY TO NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH IN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NE OR E BY DAWN.
THERE MAY SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOW
50S OVER SRN DELAWARE AND OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GRIDS EXCEPT TO ADJUST TEMPS, WHICH WERE
HIGHER THAN FCST ATTM. CDFNT WAS WORKING ITS WAY ACRS THE AREA,
BUT HAD LITTLE IMPACT EXCEPT TO SHIFT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING TO THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY MILD...BUT NOT AS WARM AS SAT WITH MAXS
MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE E OR SE AT 5 TO 10
MPH IN THE MORNING AND 10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES.

WE CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY, MOSTLY ELEVATED, OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CHANCES FOR THUNDER CONTINUE TO LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. EXPANDED THE THUNDER COVERAGE JUST A BIT TO THE NORTH AS THE
WARM FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT MAKE IT THROUGH THE PHILLY METRO AREA
AND TO POINTS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
QUITE MAKE IT TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY SO WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA.

GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE
EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE ALONG IT, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING. COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TRENDING THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE 30 HR PHL TAF. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY WRLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NRN TAF SITES WILL HAVE SOME
GUSTINESS INTO THE EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...SO WINDS WILL VEER NWRLY THEN GO NE OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND WINDS WILL BECOME ERLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME EARLY ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
VFR. RAIN WILL EXIT THE RAIN WITH SOME SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE AT
KRDG/KABE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY MORNING AS
A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
IN FROM THE N SUNDAY. SUN AFTERNOON WILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS LOWER DEL BAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW/FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WE WILL RAISE THE SCA FLAG AT 16Z SUN FOR NOW AS THIS
ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES...SOME TIME/SPACE
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE
WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE WILL SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ON
MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND EXCEED 5
FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
OCEAN WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SEAS BEING SLOW TO
SUBSIDE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ON THE
OCEAN INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WIND SPEED S HAVE
DROPPED OFF, BUT THE WIND WILL SHIFT AS A CDFNT PASSES THRU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TODAYS OFFICIAL 80-81F WAS THE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY SINCE LATE
SEPTEMBER 2014 AT THE FOLLOWING LONG TERM CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

KABE 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/30/14 (80)
KILG 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (81)
KPHL 81 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (86)
KRDG 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (85)

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431-453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 190127
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WAS CROSSING THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF MORE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH ONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AND ANOTHER LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM WRLY/SWRLY TO NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH IN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NE OR E BY DAWN.
THERE MAY SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOW
50S OVER SRN DELAWARE AND OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GRIDS EXCEPT TO ADJUST TEMPS, WHICH WERE
HIGHER THAN FCST ATTM. CDFNT WAS WORKING ITS WAY ACRS THE AREA,
BUT HAD LITTLE IMPACT EXCEPT TO SHIFT WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING TO THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY MILD...BUT NOT AS WARM AS SAT WITH MAXS
MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE E OR SE AT 5 TO 10
MPH IN THE MORNING AND 10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES.

WE CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY, MOSTLY ELEVATED, OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CHANCES FOR THUNDER CONTINUE TO LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. EXPANDED THE THUNDER COVERAGE JUST A BIT TO THE NORTH AS THE
WARM FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT MAKE IT THROUGH THE PHILLY METRO AREA
AND TO POINTS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
QUITE MAKE IT TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY SO WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA.

GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE
EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE ALONG IT, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING. COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TRENDING THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE 30 HR PHL TAF. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY WRLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NRN TAF SITES WILL HAVE SOME
GUSTINESS INTO THE EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...SO WINDS WILL VEER NWRLY THEN GO NE OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND WINDS WILL BECOME ERLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME EARLY ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
VFR. RAIN WILL EXIT THE RAIN WITH SOME SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE AT
KRDG/KABE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY MORNING AS
A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
IN FROM THE N SUNDAY. SUN AFTERNOON WILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS LOWER DEL BAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW/FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WE WILL RAISE THE SCA FLAG AT 16Z SUN FOR NOW AS THIS
ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES...SOME TIME/SPACE
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE
WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE WILL SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ON
MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND EXCEED 5
FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
OCEAN WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SEAS BEING SLOW TO
SUBSIDE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ON THE
OCEAN INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WIND SPEED S HAVE
DROPPED OFF, BUT THE WIND WILL SHIFT AS A CDFNT PASSES THRU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TODAYS OFFICIAL 80-81F WAS THE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY SINCE LATE
SEPTEMBER 2014 AT THE FOLLOWING LONG TERM CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

KABE 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/30/14 (80)
KILG 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (81)
KPHL 81 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (86)
KRDG 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (85)

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431-453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 182202
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
602 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF MORE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH ONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM WRLY/SWRLY TO NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH IN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NE OR E BY DAWN.
THERE MAY SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOW
50S OVER SRN DELAWARE AND OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING TO THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY MILD...BUT NOT AS WARM AS SAT WITH MAXS
MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE E OR SE AT 5 TO 10
MPH IN THE MORNING AND 10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES.

WE CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY, MOSTLY ELEVATED, OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CHANCES FOR THUNDER CONTINUE TO LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. EXPANDED THE THUNDER COVERAGE JUST A BIT TO THE NORTH AS THE
WARM FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT MAKE IT THROUGH THE PHILLY METRO AREA
AND TO POINTS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
QUITE MAKE IT TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY SO WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA.

GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE
EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE ALONG IT, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING. COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TRENDING THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE 30 HR PHL TAF. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY WRLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NRN TAF SITES WILL HAVE SOME
GUSTINESS INTO THE EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...SO WINDS WILL VEER NWRLY THEN GO NE OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND WINDS WILL BECOME ERLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME EARLY ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
VFR. RAIN WILL EXIT THE RAIN WITH SOME SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE AT
KRDG/KABE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY MORNING AS
A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
IN FROM THE N SUNDAY. SUN AFTERNOON WILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS LOWER DEL BAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW/FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WE WILL RAISE THE SCA FLAG AT 16Z SUN FOR NOW AS THIS
ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES...SOME TIME/SPACE
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE
WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE WILL SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ON
MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND EXCEED 5
FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
OCEAN WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SEAS BEING SLOW TO
SUBSIDE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ON THE
OCEAN INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING UP FOR THE NRN AREAS FOR NOW. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE...BUT RH VALUES REMAIN LOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED CONDITIONS STILL EXIST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TODAYS OFFICIAL 80-81F WAS THE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY SINCE LATE
SEPTEMBER 2014 AT THE FOLLOWING LONG TERM CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

KABE 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/30/14 (80)
KILG 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (81)
KPHL 81 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (86)
KRDG 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (85)

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431-453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...DRAG 601P




000
FXUS61 KPHI 182202
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
602 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF MORE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH ONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM WRLY/SWRLY TO NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH IN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NE OR E BY DAWN.
THERE MAY SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOW
50S OVER SRN DELAWARE AND OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING TO THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY MILD...BUT NOT AS WARM AS SAT WITH MAXS
MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE E OR SE AT 5 TO 10
MPH IN THE MORNING AND 10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES.

WE CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY, MOSTLY ELEVATED, OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CHANCES FOR THUNDER CONTINUE TO LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. EXPANDED THE THUNDER COVERAGE JUST A BIT TO THE NORTH AS THE
WARM FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT MAKE IT THROUGH THE PHILLY METRO AREA
AND TO POINTS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
QUITE MAKE IT TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY SO WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA.

GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE
EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE ALONG IT, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING. COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TRENDING THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE 30 HR PHL TAF. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY WRLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NRN TAF SITES WILL HAVE SOME
GUSTINESS INTO THE EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...SO WINDS WILL VEER NWRLY THEN GO NE OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND WINDS WILL BECOME ERLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME EARLY ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
VFR. RAIN WILL EXIT THE RAIN WITH SOME SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE AT
KRDG/KABE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY MORNING AS
A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
IN FROM THE N SUNDAY. SUN AFTERNOON WILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS LOWER DEL BAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW/FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WE WILL RAISE THE SCA FLAG AT 16Z SUN FOR NOW AS THIS
ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES...SOME TIME/SPACE
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE
WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE WILL SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ON
MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND EXCEED 5
FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
OCEAN WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SEAS BEING SLOW TO
SUBSIDE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ON THE
OCEAN INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING UP FOR THE NRN AREAS FOR NOW. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE...BUT RH VALUES REMAIN LOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED CONDITIONS STILL EXIST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
TODAYS OFFICIAL 80-81F WAS THE FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY SINCE LATE
SEPTEMBER 2014 AT THE FOLLOWING LONG TERM CLIMATE LOCATIONS.

KABE 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/30/14 (80)
KILG 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (81)
KPHL 81 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (86)
KRDG 80 LAST 80 WAS 9/28/14 (85)

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431-453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...DRAG 601P





000
FXUS61 KPHI 181951
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF MORE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH ONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM WRLY/SWRLY TO NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH IN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NE OR E BY DAWN.
THERE MAY SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOW
50S OVER SRN DELAWARE AND OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING TO THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY MILD...BUT NOT AS WARM AS SAT WITH MAXS
MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE E OR SE AT 5 TO 10
MPH IN THE MORNING AND 10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES.

WE CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY, MOSTLY ELEVATED, OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CHANCES FOR THUNDER CONTINUE TO LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. EXPANDED THE THUNDER COVERAGE JUST A BIT TO THE NORTH AS THE
WARM FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT MAKE IT THROUGH THE PHILLY METRO AREA
AND TO POINTS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
QUITE MAKE IT TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY SO WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA.

GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE
EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE ALONG IT, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING. COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TRENDING THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE 30 HR PHL TAF. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY WRLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NRN TAF SITES WILL HAVE SOME
GUSTINESS INTO THE EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...SO WINDS WILL VEER NWRLY THEN GO NE OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND WINDS WILL BECOME ERLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME EARLY ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
VFR. RAIN WILL EXIT THE RAIN WITH SOME SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE AT
KRDG/KABE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY MORNING AS
A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
IN FROM THE N SUNDAY. SUN AFTERNOON WILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS LOWER DEL BAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW/FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WE WILL RAISE THE SCA FLAG AT 16Z SUN FOR NOW AS THIS
ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES...SOME TIME/SPACE
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE
WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE WILL SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ON
MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND EXCEED 5
FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
OCEAN WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SEAS BEING SLOW TO
SUBSIDE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ON THE
OCEAN INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING UP FOR THE NRN AREAS FOR NOW. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE...BUT RH VALUES REMAIN LOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED CONDITIONS STILL EXIST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431-453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...O`HARA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 181951
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF MORE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH ONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM WRLY/SWRLY TO NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH IN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NE OR E BY DAWN.
THERE MAY SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOW
50S OVER SRN DELAWARE AND OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING TO THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY MILD...BUT NOT AS WARM AS SAT WITH MAXS
MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE E OR SE AT 5 TO 10
MPH IN THE MORNING AND 10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES.

WE CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY, MOSTLY ELEVATED, OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CHANCES FOR THUNDER CONTINUE TO LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. EXPANDED THE THUNDER COVERAGE JUST A BIT TO THE NORTH AS THE
WARM FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT MAKE IT THROUGH THE PHILLY METRO AREA
AND TO POINTS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
QUITE MAKE IT TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY SO WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA.

GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE
EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE ALONG IT, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING. COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TRENDING THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE 30 HR PHL TAF. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY WRLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NRN TAF SITES WILL HAVE SOME
GUSTINESS INTO THE EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...SO WINDS WILL VEER NWRLY THEN GO NE OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND WINDS WILL BECOME ERLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME EARLY ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
VFR. RAIN WILL EXIT THE RAIN WITH SOME SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE AT
KRDG/KABE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY MORNING AS
A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
IN FROM THE N SUNDAY. SUN AFTERNOON WILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS LOWER DEL BAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW/FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WE WILL RAISE THE SCA FLAG AT 16Z SUN FOR NOW AS THIS
ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES...SOME TIME/SPACE
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE
WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE WILL SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ON
MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND EXCEED 5
FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
OCEAN WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SEAS BEING SLOW TO
SUBSIDE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ON THE
OCEAN INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING UP FOR THE NRN AREAS FOR NOW. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE...BUT RH VALUES REMAIN LOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED CONDITIONS STILL EXIST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431-453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 181951
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOSE DOWN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF MORE COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH ONE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
ANOTHER LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UNEVENTFUL WEATHER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS WILL BE OBSERVED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM WRLY/SWRLY TO NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO PUSH IN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO NE OR E BY DAWN.
THERE MAY SOME GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS FOLLOWING THE FROPA.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S MOST AREAS WITH SOME LOW
50S OVER SRN DELAWARE AND OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE HEADING TO THE EAST. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH/WEST. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY MILD...BUT NOT AS WARM AS SAT WITH MAXS
MOSTLY LOW/MID 60S OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE E OR SE AT 5 TO 10
MPH IN THE MORNING AND 10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS THE WARM FRONT
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL RISE UP NEAR 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL
CAUSE RAIN TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES.

WE CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SOME
INSTABILITY, MOSTLY ELEVATED, OCCURS WHILE WE ARE IN THE WARM
SECTOR. CHANCES FOR THUNDER CONTINUE TO LOOK BETTER AS YOU HEAD TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHL WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY TO THE NORTH AND
WEST. EXPANDED THE THUNDER COVERAGE JUST A BIT TO THE NORTH AS THE
WARM FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT MAKE IT THROUGH THE PHILLY METRO AREA
AND TO POINTS TO THE NORTH. THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL
QUITE MAKE IT TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY SO WE HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF
THUNDER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT AREA.

GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET CROSSES THE REGION ON MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE LEAVING THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL END AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE
EAST BUT WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARBY, SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY....A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITH A GRADUAL PUSH TO EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. AS THE FRONT DROPS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA, IT MIGHT STALL AND WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE ALONG IT, WITH ANOTHER
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EASTWARD BUT THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUING. COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE TRENDING THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS TONIGHT OR
SUNDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE 30 HR PHL TAF. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY WRLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THE NRN TAF SITES WILL HAVE SOME
GUSTINESS INTO THE EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...SO WINDS WILL VEER NWRLY THEN GO NE OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY
MORNING WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLR SKIES AND WINDS WILL BECOME ERLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME EARLY ON MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
VFR. RAIN WILL EXIT THE RAIN WITH SOME SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE AT
KRDG/KABE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY MORNING AS
A FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
IN FROM THE N SUNDAY. SUN AFTERNOON WILL SEE SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SRN NJ/DE COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS LOWER DEL BAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STEEPENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW/FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WE WILL RAISE THE SCA FLAG AT 16Z SUN FOR NOW AS THIS
ALIGNS WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES...SOME TIME/SPACE
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE STABLE
AIR AT THE SURFACE, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MIX DOWN SOME OF THE
STRONGER WINDS LOCATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE
WINDS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY DOWN AND GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR AT THE SURFACE AND WE WILL SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS ON
MONDAY. AS THE JET MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM, WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN BECOME MORE WESTERLY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WEAKENING THROUGH THAT TIME. SEAS WILL BUILD AND EXCEED 5
FEET ON THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY.

AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
OCEAN WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ON THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN OCEAN WATERS WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH SEAS BEING SLOW TO
SUBSIDE, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ON THE
OCEAN INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE
AREA WATERS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE WILL KEEP THE RED FLAG WARNING UP FOR THE NRN AREAS FOR NOW. WIND
SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INCREASE...BUT RH VALUES REMAIN LOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED CONDITIONS STILL EXIST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450>452.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
     ANZ431-453>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...O`HARA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 181630
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1230 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD LATER TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC, ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

A SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS ER PA AND NJ. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 DEGREES. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN
THE 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS
DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86
DEGREES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST WITH HIGHER
SPEEDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE
ACROSS THE NJ AND DE SHORE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING
PHILADELPHIA AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM, WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN
AIR MASS CHANGE THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS
TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WILL
RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLING AND A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS
QUICKER BY A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED
LOW AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST
LOW- LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS, HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW
AIR OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA,
THEREFORE THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO
ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS
NORTHWARD A BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM
SECTOR CAN GET FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
OUR WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC
GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AT
SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY
TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND
EAST. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM
THE WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT,
THEREFORE A NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND
INCREASE. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LATER AT NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE
SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL
800 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A
WESTERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 181630
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1230 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD LATER TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC, ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

A SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS ER PA AND NJ. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 DEGREES. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN
THE 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS
DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86
DEGREES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST WITH HIGHER
SPEEDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE
ACROSS THE NJ AND DE SHORE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING
PHILADELPHIA AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM, WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN
AIR MASS CHANGE THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS
TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WILL
RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLING AND A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS
QUICKER BY A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED
LOW AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST
LOW- LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS, HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW
AIR OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA,
THEREFORE THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO
ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS
NORTHWARD A BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM
SECTOR CAN GET FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
OUR WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC
GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AT
SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY
TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND
EAST. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM
THE WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT,
THEREFORE A NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND
INCREASE. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LATER AT NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE
SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL
800 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A
WESTERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 181630
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1230 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON,
PULLING A DRY COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
NEAR HUDSON BAY MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN STALL. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF OUR REGION DURING
MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIALLY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR AREA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD LATER TODAY.
MEANWHILE, A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC, ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
TOWARD OUR REGION LATE IN THE DAY.

A SUNNY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
ACROSS ER PA AND NJ. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 80 DEGREES. READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NO HIGHER THAN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND NO HIGHER THAN
THE 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.PHILADELPHIA`S LAST 80 PLUS
DEGREE DAY WAS ON SEPTEMBER 28 WHEN THE TEMPERATURE ROSE TO 86
DEGREES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST WITH HIGHER
SPEEDS/GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE
ACROSS THE NJ AND DE SHORE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PART
OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD REACH THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR IN NEW JERSEY ABOUT 800 PM.
THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD, REACHING
PHILADELPHIA AROUND 1000 PM AND CAPE MAY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND
THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO THE NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WIND IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO VEER TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 40 DEGREES IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND INTO THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S RANGE ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A CLOSED LOW THAT EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE BUILDS RIDGING
DOWNSTREAM, WHICH RESULTS IN DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN
AIR MASS CHANGE THOUGH WILL TAKE PLACE FOR SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH. THE INITIAL CLOSED LOW LOOKS
TO GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE SCALE TROUGH FROM THE MIDWEST AS IT
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION EASTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD THEN RESULT IN ANOTHER CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING CLOSER TO NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION EVENT LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY
ALTHOUGH SOME QUICKER ARRIVAL TIME WITH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE WILL
RESULT IN RAIN DEVELOPING SOONER. GIVEN THE SURGE OF MOISTURE, THE
RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE PATTERN THEREAFTER RESULTS IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE EAST ALONG WITH COOLING AND A SERIES OF
COLD FRONTS. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE
FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE NORTH TO START
SUNDAY THEN IT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND TO BE ONSHORE ALONG WITH A COOLER
AIR MASS. THE CLOUDS INCREASE MAINLY LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WAA WILL HELP PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING IN MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER ASCENT TO ARRIVE SOONER /DEEPER ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH/, THEREFORE WE INCREASED THE POPS
QUICKER BY A FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RAIN MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS ENERGY EJECTS EASTWARD FROM A CLOSED
LOW AND ALSO FROM THE MIDWEST, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A ROBUST
LOW- LEVEL JET AT LEAST DURING THE MORNING COMBINED WITH WAA, DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL RESULT IN AN AREA
OF RAIN. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITHIN
THIS, HOWEVER HELD OFF WITH A THUNDER MENTION AS THE INITIAL DEEP
SATURATION TENDS TO NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDER. AN AREA OF PW
AIR OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES IS FORECAST TO SURGE ACROSS THE CWA,
THEREFORE THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. OTHER THAN SOME TYPICAL PONDING OF WATER ON THE ROADWAYS
AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING DURING HEAVIER RAIN, NO OTHER FLOODING
IS ANTICIPATED ATTM.

THE WARM SECTOR MAY GET INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND PERHAPS TO
ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO, AND THEREFORE KEPT A MENTION OF SOME
THUNDER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT DID EXPAND THIS
NORTHWARD A BIT. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
INTENSITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ON THE LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE WARM
SECTOR CAN GET FARTHER NORTH /ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS/. THE
STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A WEAK SURFACE
LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST NEAR A TRIPLE POINT. A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET
SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS CLOSER TO THE COAST DUE TO AN INITIAL
ONSHORE FLOW.

LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD/OCCLUDING FRONT SHOULD BE EXITING TO OUR
EAST TUESDAY MORNING, WITH ANY SHOWERS ENDING. A DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW THOUGH IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND THE GREAT LAKES WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW RESULTING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY PERSIST TUESDAY MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT REAL
CERTAIN HOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY WITHIN THE FLOW RESULTS IN SOME
STRONGER FORCING AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STARTS TO SHIFT TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH TIME. THESE SHORT WAVES SHOULD SEND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
OUR WAY, WITH ONE GENERALLY ON WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER PROBABLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. OVERALL, WE FAVORED THE WPC
GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH ALSO ADVERTISES
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AT
SPEEDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES, KRDG, KABE AND KTTN. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH OUR REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY
TONIGHT AND THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR INTO THE EVENING WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS. THE
CONDITIONS THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR AT NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AT
NIGHT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY START TO DEVELOP AT NIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT AND AS A ROBUST LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES IN.

MONDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN IN THE MORNING TAPERING TO
SOME SHOWERS, THEN SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM ABOUT THE KPHL METRO TO SOUTH AND
EAST. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. EAST OR
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM KTTN TO KABE NORTHWARD. WESTERLY WINDS
MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE,
MAINLY FROM KPHL AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. WESTERLY WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.

THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TODAY AS WARM AIR FROM
THE WEST RIDES OVER THE COLD WATER. THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD
SETTLE INTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSES. SPEEDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME WITH WAVES ON OUR OCEAN WATERS BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET ARRIVES AT NIGHT,
THEREFORE A NORTHEAST WIND WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY AT NIGHT AND
INCREASE. THIS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
LATER AT NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO START TO BUILD THE
SEAS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT OF A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH MOSTLY MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE WIND
ABOVE THE GROUND, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF TIME
WHERE THE ONSHORE FLOW GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND DIMINISHING SOME. AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY LATER MONDAY
THEN WESTERLY INTO TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AND ABOVE 5 FEET ON
THE OCEAN AND MAY BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE NEEDED.

WEDNESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE COUNTIES OF BERKS, UPPER MONTGOMERY, BUCKS, MERCER, INLAND
MONMOUTH AND POINTS NORTHWARD. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 300 PM UNTIL
800 PM. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20
TO 25 PERCENT RANGE THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND FINE FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, A
WESTERLY WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD.

THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY THERE, AS WELL. HOWEVER, WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THOSE IN AREAS TO THE NORTH,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD AND THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGHER AND WIND SPEEDS LOWER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND IN THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND THAN AT LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH. AS A RESULT,
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY IN THOSE
AREAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-
     060>062-103-105-106.
NJ...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010-012-013-015.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...





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