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000
FXUS61 KPHI 210238
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1038 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND THURSDAY
NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AND COMPACT
SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS
EVENING. SOME STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EVEN RESULTING IN
SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN OHIO. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. OUT AHEAD OF IT, SOME WAA AND THETA-E
ADVECTION IS COMBINING WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN FEATURE. THIS ALONG WITH JUST ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
AND DOWN INTO VIRGINIA. THIS ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD. THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA IS FAIRLY DRY, THEREFORE ANY
QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT WITH MAYBE EVEN JUST SPRINKLES
OCCURRING. WE CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SOME
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FILLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOMES MORE BROAD. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY SLOT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR CWA, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT. A BETTER
DEFINED AND STRONGER COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA LATE IN
THE DAY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...LOTS OF JET DYNAMICS
INVOLVED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES TO LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES, THOUGH STILL NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON A COMPLETELY DRY DAY ELSEWHERE SO WE CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS. NOT LOOKING AT A COMPLETE WASHOUT TOMORROW WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THE MOST PROBABLE. WE KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST, EVEN WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORMING, AS
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OFFSHORE COULD ROB INLAND AREAS OF ALL THE
LUSTER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH THE MODIFYING
AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY, ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LIFT
UNDER ITS LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE HURON
VICINITY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL
AREAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.
REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR OVERALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH
AND WEST OF KPHL, HOWEVER IT APPEARS NO RESTRICTIONS WITH THEM.
SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ABE/RDG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS START OFF LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH, MAYBE
SOUTHEAST, AND VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. KEEP
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER IMPACTS AT TERMINALS SO KEEP THE MENTION
OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE THOUGH FOR A TIME WITH SOME GUSTS MAINLY ON THE
OCEAN WATERS INTO THE LOW-20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS REMAIN MAINLY AT
4 FEET OR LESS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210238
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1038 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND
NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND THURSDAY
NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED AND COMPACT
SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS
EVENING. SOME STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EVEN RESULTING IN
SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN OHIO. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. OUT AHEAD OF IT, SOME WAA AND THETA-E
ADVECTION IS COMBINING WITH SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY WELL OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN FEATURE. THIS ALONG WITH JUST ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES
AND DOWN INTO VIRGINIA. THIS ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD. THE AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA IS FAIRLY DRY, THEREFORE ANY
QPF IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT WITH MAYBE EVEN JUST SPRINKLES
OCCURRING. WE CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR SOME
SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FILLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOMES MORE BROAD. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY SLOT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR CWA, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT. A BETTER
DEFINED AND STRONGER COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA LATE IN
THE DAY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...LOTS OF JET DYNAMICS
INVOLVED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES TO LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES, THOUGH STILL NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON A COMPLETELY DRY DAY ELSEWHERE SO WE CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS. NOT LOOKING AT A COMPLETE WASHOUT TOMORROW WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THE MOST PROBABLE. WE KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST, EVEN WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORMING, AS
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OFFSHORE COULD ROB INLAND AREAS OF ALL THE
LUSTER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH THE MODIFYING
AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY, ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LIFT
UNDER ITS LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE HURON
VICINITY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL
AREAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.
REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR OVERALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH
AND WEST OF KPHL, HOWEVER IT APPEARS NO RESTRICTIONS WITH THEM.
SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ABE/RDG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS START OFF LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH, MAYBE
SOUTHEAST, AND VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. KEEP
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER IMPACTS AT TERMINALS SO KEEP THE MENTION
OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERALL. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE THOUGH FOR A TIME WITH SOME GUSTS MAINLY ON THE
OCEAN WATERS INTO THE LOW-20 KNOT RANGE. SEAS REMAIN MAINLY AT
4 FEET OR LESS.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER








000
FXUS61 KPHI 202220
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND THURSDAY
NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY TONIGHT WITH DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LEAD IMPULSE,
WITHIN THE LARGER GREAT LAKES TROUGH, NEARS FROM THE WEST AS ITS
SURFACE INFLECTION SLOWLY DIVES INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
LATE TONIGHT. WE CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES STARTING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES WITH
ITS WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL BALMY COMPARED TO THIS MORNINGS LOWS.
EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER-40S IN MOST PLACES. A
BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WORKED BEST.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WITH THIS
UPDATE. LATEST RADAR HAS SOME WK RETURNS W OF THE AREA. BUT WILL
SEE WHERE THEY ARE FOR THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FILLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOMES MORE BROAD. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY SLOT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR CWA, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT. A BETTER
DEFINED AND STRONGER COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA LATE IN
THE DAY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...LOTS OF JET DYNAMICS
INVOLVED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES TO LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES, THOUGH STILL NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON A COMPLETELY DRY DAY ELSEWHERE SO WE CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS. NOT LOOKING AT A COMPLETE WASHOUT TOMORROW WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THE MOST PROBABLE. WE KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST, EVEN WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORMING, AS
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OFFSHORE COULD ROB INLAND AREAS OF ALL THE
LUSTER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH THE MODIFYING
AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY, ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LIFT
UNDER ITS LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE HURON
VICINITY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL
AREAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.
REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY MVFR
DRIZZLE/MIST IS POSSIBLE AT ABE/RDG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR MIST DEVELOPMENT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS START OFF LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH, MAYBE
SOUTHEAST, AND VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. KEEP
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER IMPACTS AT TERMINALS SO KEEP THE MENTION
OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAY GUST INTO THE LOW-20 KNOT RANGE FOR A TIME AS SEAS REMAIN
AROUND 3 FEET.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 202220
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
620 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST
ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND THURSDAY
NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY TONIGHT WITH DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LEAD IMPULSE,
WITHIN THE LARGER GREAT LAKES TROUGH, NEARS FROM THE WEST AS ITS
SURFACE INFLECTION SLOWLY DIVES INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
LATE TONIGHT. WE CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES STARTING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES WITH
ITS WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL BALMY COMPARED TO THIS MORNINGS LOWS.
EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER-40S IN MOST PLACES. A
BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WORKED BEST.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS WITH THIS
UPDATE. LATEST RADAR HAS SOME WK RETURNS W OF THE AREA. BUT WILL
SEE WHERE THEY ARE FOR THE NEXT UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FILLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOMES MORE BROAD. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY SLOT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR CWA, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT. A BETTER
DEFINED AND STRONGER COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA LATE IN
THE DAY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...LOTS OF JET DYNAMICS
INVOLVED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES TO LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES, THOUGH STILL NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON A COMPLETELY DRY DAY ELSEWHERE SO WE CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS. NOT LOOKING AT A COMPLETE WASHOUT TOMORROW WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THE MOST PROBABLE. WE KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST, EVEN WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORMING, AS
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OFFSHORE COULD ROB INLAND AREAS OF ALL THE
LUSTER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH THE MODIFYING
AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY, ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LIFT
UNDER ITS LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE HURON
VICINITY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL
AREAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.
REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY MVFR
DRIZZLE/MIST IS POSSIBLE AT ABE/RDG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR MIST DEVELOPMENT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS START OFF LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH, MAYBE
SOUTHEAST, AND VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. KEEP
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER IMPACTS AT TERMINALS SO KEEP THE MENTION
OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAY GUST INTO THE LOW-20 KNOT RANGE FOR A TIME AS SEAS REMAIN
AROUND 3 FEET.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER








000
FXUS61 KPHI 201958
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD. IT IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING A LOT OF RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON
TO OUR WEST TIED TO THE THETA-E SURGE OCCURRING. THE MID-LEVELS
REMAINS VERY DRY AND SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSION VALUES ARE STILL
20 TO 25F SO BASICALLY A LOT OF VIRGA IS BEING SEEN. THE AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MODIFY TONIGHT WITH DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LEAD IMPULSE, WITHIN THE LARGER GREAT
LAKES TROUGH, NEARS FROM THE WEST AS ITS SURFACE INFLECTION SLOWLY
DIVES INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT. WE CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES STARTING EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES WITH ITS WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL BALMY COMPARED TO THIS MORNINGS LOWS.
EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER-40S IN MOST PLACES. A
BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WORKED BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FILLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOMES MORE BROAD. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY SLOT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR CWA, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT. A BETTER
DEFINED AND STRONGER COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA LATE IN
THE DAY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...LOTS OF JET DYNAMICS
INVOLVED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES TO LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES, THOUGH STILL NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON A COMPLETELY DRY DAY ELSEWHERE SO WE CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS. NOT LOOKING AT A COMPLETE WASHOUT TOMORROW WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THE MOST PROBABLE. WE KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST, EVEN WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORMING, AS
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OFFSHORE COULD ROB INLAND AREAS OF ALL THE
LUSTER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH THE MODIFYING
AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY, ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LIFT
UNDER ITS LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE HURON
VICINITY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL
AREAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.
REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY
MVFR DRIZZLE/MIST IS POSSIBLE AT ABE/RDG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR MIST DEVELOPMENT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS START OFF LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH, MAYBE
SOUTHEAST, AND VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. KEEP
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER IMPACTS AT TERMINALS SO KEEP THE MENTION
OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAY GUST INTO THE LOW-20 KNOT RANGE FOR A TIME AS SEAS REMAIN
AROUND 3 FEET.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201958
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON WILL DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD. IT IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD AROUND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND ARRIVING IN NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING A LOT OF RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON
TO OUR WEST TIED TO THE THETA-E SURGE OCCURRING. THE MID-LEVELS
REMAINS VERY DRY AND SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSION VALUES ARE STILL
20 TO 25F SO BASICALLY A LOT OF VIRGA IS BEING SEEN. THE AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MODIFY TONIGHT WITH DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE LEAD IMPULSE, WITHIN THE LARGER GREAT
LAKES TROUGH, NEARS FROM THE WEST AS ITS SURFACE INFLECTION SLOWLY
DIVES INTO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT. WE CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES STARTING EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW APPROACHES WITH ITS WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL BALMY COMPARED TO THIS MORNINGS LOWS.
EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER-40S IN MOST PLACES. A
BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WORKED BEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A FILLING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND BECOMES MORE BROAD. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY SLOT SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
OUR CWA, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT IS STILL SUSPECT. A BETTER
DEFINED AND STRONGER COASTAL LOW FORMS OFF THE DELMARVA LATE IN
THE DAY AND MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...LOTS OF JET DYNAMICS
INVOLVED. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES TO LIKELY DURING THE DAY
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES, THOUGH STILL NOT
ENTIRELY SOLD ON A COMPLETELY DRY DAY ELSEWHERE SO WE CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS. NOT LOOKING AT A COMPLETE WASHOUT TOMORROW WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THE MOST PROBABLE. WE KEEP THUNDER OUT OF
THE FORECAST, EVEN WITH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORMING, AS
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OFFSHORE COULD ROB INLAND AREAS OF ALL THE
LUSTER. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH THE MODIFYING
AIR MASS AND SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDED FROM WESTERN HUDSON BAY, ACROSS
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A MID LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE LIFT
UNDER ITS LEFT FRONT QUADRANT TONIGHT OVER THE LAKE HURON
VICINITY. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER EASTERN
WEST VIRGINIA ON TUESDAY EVENING AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FEATURE IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER OFF OUR COAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AND REACHING THE
WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY MORNING. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST
TO FOLLOW THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSELY DURING THE PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL LOW. AS A RESULT, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN OUR COASTAL
AREAS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
APPROACH AN INCH AT SOME LOCATIONS. ALSO, MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN
THAT AREA MAY TRANSLATE INTO ISOLATED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER.
REGARDLESS, THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY
FLOODING PROBLEMS.

AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD END GRADUALLY IN OUR
AREA.

A COUPLE OF REINFORCING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES SHOULD DROP OVER
OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. THE SHORT WAVES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM.
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION AT THAT TIME.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BUILD TOWARD OUR REGION
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

DAYTIME HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH THE RAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. READINGS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON - TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY
MVFR DRIZZLE/MIST IS POSSIBLE AT ABE/RDG EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXCEPT FOR MIST DEVELOPMENT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEARS FROM THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. WINDS START OFF LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH, MAYBE
SOUTHEAST, AND VEER TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. KEEP
LOW CONFIDENCE ON SHOWER IMPACTS AT TERMINALS SO KEEP THE MENTION
OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR IN PERIODS OF RAIN.

THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
MAY GUST INTO THE LOW-20 KNOT RANGE FOR A TIME AS SEAS REMAIN
AROUND 3 FEET.

TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO DECREASE AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER








000
FXUS61 KPHI 201336
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORFOLK WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LINE ON TUESDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST, REACHING CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY AND NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRIEFLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING WERE EXPIRED AT 8AM. A HUGE
CHUNK OF OUR REGION SAW SHELTER TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER-
20S TO LOW-30S SO WE WERE ABLE TO END THE GROWING SEASON IN A LOT
OF PLACES. THE COUNTIES AND ZONES BELOW INDICATE WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS ENDED AS OF TODAY.

IN PENNSYLVANIA:
BERKS, BUCKS, CARBON, CHESTER, LEHIGH, MONROE, MONTGOMERY, NORTHAMPTON

IN NEW JERSEY:
ATLANTIC (INCLUDING COASTAL STRIP), BURLINGTON, HUNTERDON, MERCER,
MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH (INCLUDING COASTAL STRIP), MORRIS, OCEAN
(INCLUDING COASTAL STRIP), SOMERSET, SUSSEX, WARREN.

THE UPDATE THIS MORNING LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. DID BUMP UP TODAYS
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AS WE SEE BETTER WAA TAKING SHAPE. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX UPWARDS OF 925MB WHERE 8 TO 10C TEMPERATURES
ADVECT IN BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT MUCH CHANGE OTHERWISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO DEVELOP. THIS FLOW WILL BE
MUCH LESS COMPARED TO THE GUSTINESS THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. A
ROBUST SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HELP
CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, SOME
WAA IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST, THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TODAY.
WE DID CARRY SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS THOUGH FOR MANY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME WAA BEING MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION, A DECENT SHOT OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE, SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS LATE. THERE MAY ALSO
BE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS, WHICH IS OFFSHORE WHERE THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE GULF STREAM. OVERALL, THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LOWER SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE POPS WERE
GRADUALLY INCREASED AS WELL.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT. OVERALL, WE
USED A MOS BLEND WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB 500MB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER THAN THE GFS OR THE
ECMWF. THE LATTER WAS TOO AMPLIFIED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WESTWARD. THIS PRESENTS THE FCST CONUNDRUM AS THE DP/DT IS SHOWING
STRONGER RIDGING IN CENTRAL NOAM VS LAST NIGHT`S SOUNDING RUN. WE
SEEM TO BE VACILLATING AROUND A LINE VS TRENDING STEADILY IN ANY
SPECIFIC, CONSISTENT DIRECTION. E.G. AT 78 HRS THE CAN
GGEM/WRF/GFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SFC LOWS ARE STACKED ON TOP OF ONE
ANOTHER. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS GOING TO GO WITH THIS CONSENSUS
AS IT INCLUDES THE BETTER INITIALIZED CLUSTERING PLUS THERE IS NO
CLEAR CUT DP/DT. IN THE GRAND SCHEME, IT WILL NOT MAKE THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK PLEASANT, JUST A SLIGHTLY FASTER IMPROVEMENT THAN THE
ECMWF HAS FOR THE LATTER PART.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODELING AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY MORNING OF OUR
CWA BEING IN A RELATIVE PCPN LULL BETWEEN IMPULSES. POPS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
OUR CWA AND IT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE ALOFT. OTHER THAN THE WRF-NMMB,
OTHER MODELS ARE NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. THE 18Z WRF WAS
THE MOST UNSTABLE OF THE 21 SREF MEMBERS IN OUR CWA, SO SHOWERS YES,
BUT NO THUNDER. MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS STILL A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO THE SOUNDINGS
AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE JUST OFFSHORE. THIS GETS TRICKY
WITH THE 2NDRY CYCLOGEN AS TO HOW QUICKLY WILL PCPN GET GENERATED
PLUS ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING. THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT
TO IT HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THE QPF FIELDS
OTHER THAN TO SUGGEST HEAVIER RAIN BECOMES A POSSIBILITY EAST. THE
SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN IN A STEADY LINE TRENDING A LITTLE
BIT SLOWER. SO FOR NOW WHILE WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA, WE DO NOT HAVE MODERATE RAIN MENTIONED.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY FCST TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN,
ESPECIALLY EAST AS OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE MOST DIVERGENT LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND THE STGST FCST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE.
WE UPPED POPS AND ARE CARRYING SOME MODERATE INTENSITY RAIN EAST.
THE ONGOING 2NDRY CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING TOO CLOSE TO
OUR CWA TO PRODUCE A LONG ENOUGH FETCH OR PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS
FOR TIDAL FLOODING. IF THE LOW DOES FORM FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, THE
CHANCES FOR TIDAL FLOODING WOULD INCREASE. WE ARE ASSISTED ALSO THAT
THE MOON`S PERIGEE DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH THE NEW MOON AND THE
HIGHEST SPRING TIDES WITH THIS LUNAR PHASE ARE ON THE WEEKEND, TWO
DAYS AFTER THE NEW MOON.

MODELS START DIVERGING COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL
GET WRAPPED INTO OUR CWA. THE CONSENSUS IS A LONGER MORE CIRCUITOUS
ROUTE FOR IT TO GET BACK INTO OUR AREA. WE LOSE THE PREDICTED HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LEANS MORE TOWARD SMALLER RAIN DROPS OR DRIZZLE
AS A PREDOMINATE PTYPE. THIS DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS CONTINUES ON
THURSDAY AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN CAN WRAP BACK INTO OUR CWA. THE
CONSENSUS CLUSTERING IS THAT MOST OF THIS WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA.
POPS WERE KEPT AS CHANCE, BUT THE PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL NOT MAKE
FOR TOO NICE A DAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WE ARE
GOING BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH AT LEAST A WELL
TIMED BREAK COME THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO GENERATE SHOWERS. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED A PREDICTED TELECONNECTION SWITCH TO A POSITIVE AO/NAO AND
NEGATIVE PNA WILL BRING A MILDER REGIME BACK INTO THE CONUS. NOT
SURPRISING WE ARE HAVING A PCPN EVENT DURING THIS SWITCH EITHER. SO
BY THE WEEKEND FAIR WEATHER RETURNS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR, WITH A CEILING AT TIMES MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 15000 FEET.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH A CEILING LOWERING TO BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET.
SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KABE AND KRDG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS, AND EVEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SOME TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
(MAINLY CIGS) WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY DUE TO CIGS AGAIN)
SHOULD OCCUR. HIGHEST POSSIBILITIES EASTERN TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.
GUSTIER NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. GREATEST DURATION NORTHERN
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND VFR
FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FOR MUCH OF TODAY, HOWEVER IS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A TIME. THE OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROTRACTED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE THE GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY AND MORE CONFIDENTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD LIKELY PEAK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH DELAWARE BAY FIRST TO LOOSE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE








000
FXUS61 KPHI 201336
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORFOLK WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LINE ON TUESDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST, REACHING CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY AND NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRIEFLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING WERE EXPIRED AT 8AM. A HUGE
CHUNK OF OUR REGION SAW SHELTER TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER-
20S TO LOW-30S SO WE WERE ABLE TO END THE GROWING SEASON IN A LOT
OF PLACES. THE COUNTIES AND ZONES BELOW INDICATE WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON HAS ENDED AS OF TODAY.

IN PENNSYLVANIA:
BERKS, BUCKS, CARBON, CHESTER, LEHIGH, MONROE, MONTGOMERY, NORTHAMPTON

IN NEW JERSEY:
ATLANTIC (INCLUDING COASTAL STRIP), BURLINGTON, HUNTERDON, MERCER,
MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH (INCLUDING COASTAL STRIP), MORRIS, OCEAN
(INCLUDING COASTAL STRIP), SOMERSET, SUSSEX, WARREN.

THE UPDATE THIS MORNING LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. DID BUMP UP TODAYS
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES AS WE SEE BETTER WAA TAKING SHAPE. WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX UPWARDS OF 925MB WHERE 8 TO 10C TEMPERATURES
ADVECT IN BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT MUCH CHANGE OTHERWISE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO DEVELOP. THIS FLOW WILL BE
MUCH LESS COMPARED TO THE GUSTINESS THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. A
ROBUST SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HELP
CARVE OUT ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, SOME
WAA IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED
WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST, THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TODAY.
WE DID CARRY SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS THOUGH FOR MANY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME WAA BEING MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION, A DECENT SHOT OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE, SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS LATE. THERE MAY ALSO
BE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS, WHICH IS OFFSHORE WHERE THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE GULF STREAM. OVERALL, THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LOWER SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE POPS WERE
GRADUALLY INCREASED AS WELL.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT. OVERALL, WE
USED A MOS BLEND WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB 500MB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER THAN THE GFS OR THE
ECMWF. THE LATTER WAS TOO AMPLIFIED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WESTWARD. THIS PRESENTS THE FCST CONUNDRUM AS THE DP/DT IS SHOWING
STRONGER RIDGING IN CENTRAL NOAM VS LAST NIGHT`S SOUNDING RUN. WE
SEEM TO BE VACILLATING AROUND A LINE VS TRENDING STEADILY IN ANY
SPECIFIC, CONSISTENT DIRECTION. E.G. AT 78 HRS THE CAN
GGEM/WRF/GFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SFC LOWS ARE STACKED ON TOP OF ONE
ANOTHER. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS GOING TO GO WITH THIS CONSENSUS
AS IT INCLUDES THE BETTER INITIALIZED CLUSTERING PLUS THERE IS NO
CLEAR CUT DP/DT. IN THE GRAND SCHEME, IT WILL NOT MAKE THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK PLEASANT, JUST A SLIGHTLY FASTER IMPROVEMENT THAN THE
ECMWF HAS FOR THE LATTER PART.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODELING AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY MORNING OF OUR
CWA BEING IN A RELATIVE PCPN LULL BETWEEN IMPULSES. POPS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
OUR CWA AND IT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE ALOFT. OTHER THAN THE WRF-NMMB,
OTHER MODELS ARE NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. THE 18Z WRF WAS
THE MOST UNSTABLE OF THE 21 SREF MEMBERS IN OUR CWA, SO SHOWERS YES,
BUT NO THUNDER. MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS STILL A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO THE SOUNDINGS
AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE JUST OFFSHORE. THIS GETS TRICKY
WITH THE 2NDRY CYCLOGEN AS TO HOW QUICKLY WILL PCPN GET GENERATED
PLUS ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING. THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT
TO IT HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THE QPF FIELDS
OTHER THAN TO SUGGEST HEAVIER RAIN BECOMES A POSSIBILITY EAST. THE
SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN IN A STEADY LINE TRENDING A LITTLE
BIT SLOWER. SO FOR NOW WHILE WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA, WE DO NOT HAVE MODERATE RAIN MENTIONED.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY FCST TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN,
ESPECIALLY EAST AS OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE MOST DIVERGENT LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND THE STGST FCST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE.
WE UPPED POPS AND ARE CARRYING SOME MODERATE INTENSITY RAIN EAST.
THE ONGOING 2NDRY CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING TOO CLOSE TO
OUR CWA TO PRODUCE A LONG ENOUGH FETCH OR PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS
FOR TIDAL FLOODING. IF THE LOW DOES FORM FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, THE
CHANCES FOR TIDAL FLOODING WOULD INCREASE. WE ARE ASSISTED ALSO THAT
THE MOON`S PERIGEE DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH THE NEW MOON AND THE
HIGHEST SPRING TIDES WITH THIS LUNAR PHASE ARE ON THE WEEKEND, TWO
DAYS AFTER THE NEW MOON.

MODELS START DIVERGING COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL
GET WRAPPED INTO OUR CWA. THE CONSENSUS IS A LONGER MORE CIRCUITOUS
ROUTE FOR IT TO GET BACK INTO OUR AREA. WE LOSE THE PREDICTED HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LEANS MORE TOWARD SMALLER RAIN DROPS OR DRIZZLE
AS A PREDOMINATE PTYPE. THIS DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS CONTINUES ON
THURSDAY AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN CAN WRAP BACK INTO OUR CWA. THE
CONSENSUS CLUSTERING IS THAT MOST OF THIS WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA.
POPS WERE KEPT AS CHANCE, BUT THE PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL NOT MAKE
FOR TOO NICE A DAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WE ARE
GOING BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH AT LEAST A WELL
TIMED BREAK COME THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO GENERATE SHOWERS. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED A PREDICTED TELECONNECTION SWITCH TO A POSITIVE AO/NAO AND
NEGATIVE PNA WILL BRING A MILDER REGIME BACK INTO THE CONUS. NOT
SURPRISING WE ARE HAVING A PCPN EVENT DURING THIS SWITCH EITHER. SO
BY THE WEEKEND FAIR WEATHER RETURNS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR, WITH A CEILING AT TIMES MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 15000 FEET.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH A CEILING LOWERING TO BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET.
SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KABE AND KRDG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS, AND EVEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SOME TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
(MAINLY CIGS) WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY DUE TO CIGS AGAIN)
SHOULD OCCUR. HIGHEST POSSIBILITIES EASTERN TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.
GUSTIER NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. GREATEST DURATION NORTHERN
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND VFR
FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FOR MUCH OF TODAY, HOWEVER IS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A TIME. THE OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROTRACTED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE THE GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY AND MORE CONFIDENTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD LIKELY PEAK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH DELAWARE BAY FIRST TO LOOSE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 200814
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORFOLK WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LINE ON TUESDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST, REACHING CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY AND NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRIEFLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING, AS MANY AREAS ARE WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THOUGH MAY HAVE SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE DROP A LITTLE
FOR SOME SPOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO DEVELOP. THIS FLOW WILL BE MUCH
LESS COMPARED TO THE GUSTINESS THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. A ROBUST
SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HELP CARVE OUT
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, SOME WEAK WAA IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WE DID CARRY SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS THOUGH FOR MANY AREAS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MODEL/MOS BLEND WHICH RESULTS
IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS LINES UP WITH THE
WEAK WAA THAT IS ALSO FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME WAA BEING MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION, A DECENT SHOT OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE, SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS LATE. THERE MAY ALSO
BE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS, WHICH IS OFFSHORE WHERE THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE GULF STREAM. OVERALL, THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LOWER SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE POPS WERE
GRADUALLY INCREASED AS WELL.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT. OVERALL, WE
USED A MOS BLEND WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB 500MB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER THAN THE GFS OR THE
ECMWF. THE LATTER WAS TOO AMPLIFIED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WESTWARD. THIS PRESENTS THE FCST CONUNDRUM AS THE DP/DT IS SHOWING
STRONGER RIDGING IN CENTRAL NOAM VS LAST NIGHT`S SOUNDING RUN. WE
SEEM TO BE VACILLATING AROUND A LINE VS TRENDING STEADILY IN ANY
SPECIFIC, CONSISTENT DIRECTION. E.G. AT 78 HRS THE CAN
GGEM/WRF/GFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SFC LOWS ARE STACKED ON TOP OF ONE
ANOTHER. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS GOING TO GO WITH THIS CONSENSUS
AS IT INCLUDES THE BETTER INITIALIZED CLUSTERING PLUS THERE IS NO
CLEAR CUT DP/DT. IN THE GRAND SCHEME, IT WILL NOT MAKE THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK PLEASANT, JUST A SLIGHTLY FASTER IMPROVEMENT THAN THE
ECMWF HAS FOR THE LATTER PART.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODELING AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY MORNING OF OUR
CWA BEING IN A RELATIVE PCPN LULL BETWEEN IMPULSES. POPS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
OUR CWA AND IT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE ALOFT. OTHER THAN THE WRF-NMMB,
OTHER MODELS ARE NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. THE 18Z WRF WAS
THE MOST UNSTABLE OF THE 21 SREF MEMBERS IN OUR CWA, SO SHOWERS YES,
BUT NO THUNDER. MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS STILL A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO THE SOUNDINGS
AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE JUST OFFSHORE. THIS GETS TRICKY
WITH THE 2NDRY CYCLOGEN AS TO HOW QUICKLY WILL PCPN GET GENERATED
PLUS ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING. THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT
TO IT HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THE QPF FIELDS
OTHER THAN TO SUGGEST HEAVIER RAIN BECOMES A POSSIBILITY EAST. THE
SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN IN A STEADY LINE TRENDING A LITTLE
BIT SLOWER. SO FOR NOW WHILE WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA, WE DO NOT HAVE MODERATE RAIN MENTIONED.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY FCST TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN,
ESPECIALLY EAST AS OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE MOST DIVERGENT LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND THE STGST FCST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE.
WE UPPED POPS AND ARE CARRYING SOME MODERATE INTENSITY RAIN EAST.
THE ONGOING 2NDRY CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING TOO CLOSE TO
OUR CWA TO PRODUCE A LONG ENOUGH FETCH OR PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS
FOR TIDAL FLOODING. IF THE LOW DOES FORM FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, THE
CHANCES FOR TIDAL FLOODING WOULD INCREASE. WE ARE ASSISTED ALSO THAT
THE MOON`S PERIGEE DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH THE NEW MOON AND THE
HIGHEST SPRING TIDES WITH THIS LUNAR PHASE ARE ON THE WEEKEND, TWO
DAYS AFTER THE NEW MOON.

MODELS START DIVERGING COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL
GET WRAPPED INTO OUR CWA. THE CONSENSUS IS A LONGER MORE CIRCUITOUS
ROUTE FOR IT TO GET BACK INTO OUR AREA. WE LOSE THE PREDICTED HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LEANS MORE TOWARD SMALLER RAIN DROPS OR DRIZZLE
AS A PREDOMINATE PTYPE. THIS DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS CONTINUES ON
THURSDAY AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN CAN WRAP BACK INTO OUR CWA. THE
CONSENSUS CLUSTERING IS THAT MOST OF THIS WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA.
POPS WERE KEPT AS CHANCE, BUT THE PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL NOT MAKE
FOR TOO NICE A DAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WE ARE
GOING BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH AT LEAST A WELL
TIMED BREAK COME THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO GENERATE SHOWERS. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED A PREDICTED TELECONNECTION SWITCH TO A POSITIVE AO/NAO AND
NEGATIVE PNA WILL BRING A MILDER REGIME BACK INTO THE CONUS. NOT
SURPRISING WE ARE HAVING A PCPN EVENT DURING THIS SWITCH EITHER. SO
BY THE WEEKEND FAIR WEATHER RETURNS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR, WITH A CEILING AT TIMES MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 15000 FEET.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH A CEILING LOWERING TO BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET.
SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KABE AND KRDG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS, AND EVEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SOME TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
(MAINLY CIGS) WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY DUE TO CIGS AGAIN)
SHOULD OCCUR. HIGHEST POSSIBILITIES EASTERN TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.
GUSTIER NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. GREATEST DURATION NORTHERN
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND VFR
FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FOR MUCH OF TODAY, HOWEVER IS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A TIME. THE OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROTRACTED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE THE GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY AND MORE CONFIDENTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD LIKELY PEAK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH DELAWARE BAY FIRST TO LOOSE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE








000
FXUS61 KPHI 200814
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
414 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORFOLK WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LINE ON TUESDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST, REACHING CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY AND NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRIEFLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING, AS MANY AREAS ARE WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THOUGH MAY HAVE SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE DROP A LITTLE
FOR SOME SPOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO DEVELOP. THIS FLOW WILL BE MUCH
LESS COMPARED TO THE GUSTINESS THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. A ROBUST
SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HELP CARVE OUT
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, SOME WEAK WAA IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WE DID CARRY SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS THOUGH FOR MANY AREAS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MODEL/MOS BLEND WHICH RESULTS
IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS LINES UP WITH THE
WEAK WAA THAT IS ALSO FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME WAA BEING MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION, A DECENT SHOT OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE, SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS LATE. THERE MAY ALSO
BE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS, WHICH IS OFFSHORE WHERE THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE GULF STREAM. OVERALL, THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LOWER SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE POPS WERE
GRADUALLY INCREASED AS WELL.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT. OVERALL, WE
USED A MOS BLEND WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB 500MB INITIALIZATION WAS BETTER THAN THE GFS OR THE
ECMWF. THE LATTER WAS TOO AMPLIFIED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WESTWARD. THIS PRESENTS THE FCST CONUNDRUM AS THE DP/DT IS SHOWING
STRONGER RIDGING IN CENTRAL NOAM VS LAST NIGHT`S SOUNDING RUN. WE
SEEM TO BE VACILLATING AROUND A LINE VS TRENDING STEADILY IN ANY
SPECIFIC, CONSISTENT DIRECTION. E.G. AT 78 HRS THE CAN
GGEM/WRF/GFS/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SFC LOWS ARE STACKED ON TOP OF ONE
ANOTHER. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS GOING TO GO WITH THIS CONSENSUS
AS IT INCLUDES THE BETTER INITIALIZED CLUSTERING PLUS THERE IS NO
CLEAR CUT DP/DT. IN THE GRAND SCHEME, IT WILL NOT MAKE THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK PLEASANT, JUST A SLIGHTLY FASTER IMPROVEMENT THAN THE
ECMWF HAS FOR THE LATTER PART.

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODELING AGREEMENT ON TUESDAY MORNING OF OUR
CWA BEING IN A RELATIVE PCPN LULL BETWEEN IMPULSES. POPS INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
OUR CWA AND IT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE ALOFT. OTHER THAN THE WRF-NMMB,
OTHER MODELS ARE NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. THE 18Z WRF WAS
THE MOST UNSTABLE OF THE 21 SREF MEMBERS IN OUR CWA, SO SHOWERS YES,
BUT NO THUNDER. MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS STILL A CONVECTIVE LOOK TO THE SOUNDINGS
AND INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE JUST OFFSHORE. THIS GETS TRICKY
WITH THE 2NDRY CYCLOGEN AS TO HOW QUICKLY WILL PCPN GET GENERATED
PLUS ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING. THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT
TO IT HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY LITTLE CONSISTENCY IN THE QPF FIELDS
OTHER THAN TO SUGGEST HEAVIER RAIN BECOMES A POSSIBILITY EAST. THE
SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN IN A STEADY LINE TRENDING A LITTLE
BIT SLOWER. SO FOR NOW WHILE WE HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS MOST OF
OUR CWA, WE DO NOT HAVE MODERATE RAIN MENTIONED.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY FCST TIME PERIOD FOR RAIN,
ESPECIALLY EAST AS OUR CWA WILL BE IN THE MOST DIVERGENT LOCATION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND THE STGST FCST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE.
WE UPPED POPS AND ARE CARRYING SOME MODERATE INTENSITY RAIN EAST.
THE ONGOING 2NDRY CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING TOO CLOSE TO
OUR CWA TO PRODUCE A LONG ENOUGH FETCH OR PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS
FOR TIDAL FLOODING. IF THE LOW DOES FORM FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, THE
CHANCES FOR TIDAL FLOODING WOULD INCREASE. WE ARE ASSISTED ALSO THAT
THE MOON`S PERIGEE DOES NOT COINCIDE WITH THE NEW MOON AND THE
HIGHEST SPRING TIDES WITH THIS LUNAR PHASE ARE ON THE WEEKEND, TWO
DAYS AFTER THE NEW MOON.

MODELS START DIVERGING COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN WILL
GET WRAPPED INTO OUR CWA. THE CONSENSUS IS A LONGER MORE CIRCUITOUS
ROUTE FOR IT TO GET BACK INTO OUR AREA. WE LOSE THE PREDICTED HIGHER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LEANS MORE TOWARD SMALLER RAIN DROPS OR DRIZZLE
AS A PREDOMINATE PTYPE. THIS DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS CONTINUES ON
THURSDAY AS TO HOW MUCH PCPN CAN WRAP BACK INTO OUR CWA. THE
CONSENSUS CLUSTERING IS THAT MOST OF THIS WILL BE NORTH OF OUR CWA.
POPS WERE KEPT AS CHANCE, BUT THE PERSISTENT NE FLOW WILL NOT MAKE
FOR TOO NICE A DAY. BY WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WE ARE
GOING BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH AT LEAST A WELL
TIMED BREAK COME THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY MOISTURE TO GENERATE SHOWERS. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED A PREDICTED TELECONNECTION SWITCH TO A POSITIVE AO/NAO AND
NEGATIVE PNA WILL BRING A MILDER REGIME BACK INTO THE CONUS. NOT
SURPRISING WE ARE HAVING A PCPN EVENT DURING THIS SWITCH EITHER. SO
BY THE WEEKEND FAIR WEATHER RETURNS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR, WITH A CEILING AT TIMES MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 15000 FEET.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH A CEILING LOWERING TO BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET.
SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KABE AND KRDG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS, AND EVEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SOME TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
(MAINLY CIGS) WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS (MAINLY DUE TO CIGS AGAIN)
SHOULD OCCUR. HIGHEST POSSIBILITIES EASTERN TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.
GUSTIER NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY...PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS. GREATEST DURATION NORTHERN
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BECOMING VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND VFR
FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS POSSIBLE.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FOR MUCH OF TODAY, HOWEVER IS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A TIME. THE OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A PROTRACTED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE THE GRADIENT ON
WEDNESDAY AND MORE CONFIDENTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD LIKELY PEAK ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER WITH DELAWARE BAY FIRST TO LOOSE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GIGI/GORSE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 200736
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
336 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORFOLK WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LINE ON TUESDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST, REACHING CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY AND NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRIEFLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING, AS MANY AREAS ARE WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THOUGH MAY HAVE SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE DROP A LITTLE
FOR SOME SPOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO DEVELOP. THIS FLOW WILL BE MUCH
LESS COMPARED TO THE GUSTINESS THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. A ROBUST
SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HELP CARVE OUT
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, SOME WEAK WAA IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WE DID CARRY SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS THOUGH FOR MANY AREAS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MODEL/MOS BLEND WHICH RESULTS
IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS LINES UP WITH THE
WEAK WAA THAT IS ALSO FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME WAA BEING MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION, A DECENT SHOT OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE, SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS LATE. THERE MAY ALSO
BE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS, WHICH IS OFFSHORE WHERE THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE GULF STREAM. OVERALL, THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LOWER SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE POPS WERE
GRADUALLY INCREASED AS WELL.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT. OVERALL, WE
USED A MOS BLEND WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS
FEATURING RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW
WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE OUR REGION
WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.

FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR, WITH A CEILING AT TIMES MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 15000 FEET.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH A CEILING LOWERING TO BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET.
SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KABE AND KRDG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS, AND EVEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SOME TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FOR MUCH OF TODAY, HOWEVER IS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A TIME. THE OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200736
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
336 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORFOLK WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LINE ON TUESDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST, REACHING CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY AND NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRIEFLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING, AS MANY AREAS ARE WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THOUGH MAY HAVE SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE DROP A LITTLE
FOR SOME SPOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO DEVELOP. THIS FLOW WILL BE MUCH
LESS COMPARED TO THE GUSTINESS THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. A ROBUST
SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HELP CARVE OUT
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, SOME WEAK WAA IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WE DID CARRY SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS THOUGH FOR MANY AREAS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MODEL/MOS BLEND WHICH RESULTS
IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS LINES UP WITH THE
WEAK WAA THAT IS ALSO FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME WAA BEING MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION, A DECENT SHOT OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE, SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS LATE. THERE MAY ALSO
BE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS, WHICH IS OFFSHORE WHERE THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE GULF STREAM. OVERALL, THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LOWER SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE POPS WERE
GRADUALLY INCREASED AS WELL.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT. OVERALL, WE
USED A MOS BLEND WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS
FEATURING RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW
WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE OUR REGION
WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.

FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR, WITH A CEILING AT TIMES MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 15000 FEET.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH A CEILING LOWERING TO BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET.
SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KABE AND KRDG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS, AND EVEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SOME TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FOR MUCH OF TODAY, HOWEVER IS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A TIME. THE OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 200736
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
336 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORFOLK WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LINE ON TUESDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST, REACHING CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY AND NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRIEFLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING, AS MANY AREAS ARE WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THOUGH MAY HAVE SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE DROP A LITTLE
FOR SOME SPOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO DEVELOP. THIS FLOW WILL BE MUCH
LESS COMPARED TO THE GUSTINESS THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. A ROBUST
SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HELP CARVE OUT
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, SOME WEAK WAA IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WE DID CARRY SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS THOUGH FOR MANY AREAS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MODEL/MOS BLEND WHICH RESULTS
IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS LINES UP WITH THE
WEAK WAA THAT IS ALSO FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME WAA BEING MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION, A DECENT SHOT OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE, SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS LATE. THERE MAY ALSO
BE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS, WHICH IS OFFSHORE WHERE THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE GULF STREAM. OVERALL, THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LOWER SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE POPS WERE
GRADUALLY INCREASED AS WELL.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT. OVERALL, WE
USED A MOS BLEND WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS
FEATURING RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW
WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE OUR REGION
WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.

FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR, WITH A CEILING AT TIMES MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 15000 FEET.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH A CEILING LOWERING TO BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET.
SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KABE AND KRDG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS, AND EVEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SOME TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FOR MUCH OF TODAY, HOWEVER IS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A TIME. THE OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 200736
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
336 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR NORFOLK WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LINE ON TUESDAY AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST, REACHING CAPE
COD ON THURSDAY AND NOVA SCOTIA ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BRIEFLY MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST AROUND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REACHING THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST ADVISORY AND FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EARLY
THIS MORNING, AS MANY AREAS ARE WELL DOWN INTO THE 30S. THE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THOUGH MAY HAVE SLOWED THE TEMPERATURE DROP A LITTLE
FOR SOME SPOTS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TODAY ALLOWING A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE TO DEVELOP. THIS FLOW WILL BE MUCH
LESS COMPARED TO THE GUSTINESS THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. A ROBUST
SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WILL HELP CARVE OUT
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
DURING THE COURSE OF TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS, SOME WEAK WAA IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD AREAS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST TODAY. WE DID CARRY SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS THOUGH FOR MANY AREAS.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WE USED A MODEL/MOS BLEND WHICH RESULTS
IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THIS LINES UP WITH THE
WEAK WAA THAT IS ALSO FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS, LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AT THE
SURFACE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES LATER TONIGHT.

THERE IS SOME WAA BEING MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL
THE BEST FOCUS FOR THIS IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. IN
ADDITION, A DECENT SHOT OF LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS AND THE
LARGE SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE, SOME
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. THIS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WHICH IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST /CHC/ POPS LATE. THERE MAY ALSO
BE ANOTHER AREA OF FOCUS, WHICH IS OFFSHORE WHERE THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION INTERACTS WITH SOME INSTABILITY
PARTIALLY DUE TO THE GULF STREAM. OVERALL, THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO LOWER SOME THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND THE POPS WERE
GRADUALLY INCREASED AS WELL.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND A WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT. OVERALL, WE
USED A MOS BLEND WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THIS PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS
FEATURING RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A
LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW
WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE INTERACTION
BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE OUR REGION
WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.

FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR, WITH A CEILING AT TIMES MAINLY AT OR ABOVE 15000 FEET.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, WITH A CEILING LOWERING TO BETWEEN 5000-8000 FEET.
SOME SHOWERS MAY APPROACH KABE AND KRDG TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS, AND EVEN BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SOME TERMINALS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST ALLOWING A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FOR MUCH OF TODAY, HOWEVER IS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A TIME. THE OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
BE LIGHT ENOUGH THOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200410
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1210 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY,
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THEN REACH OUR REGION
DURING TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WE WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AS THEY ARE AS DEWPOINTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THESE AREAS ARE STILL LOW AT THIS POINT THAT THERE
IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT.
DEWPOINTS HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN SLIGHTLY WHERE THERE IS NO ADVISORY,
AND THERE IS SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SO WE THINK
THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT
WIDESPREAD FROST AND KEEP IT MORE PATCHY IN THESE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM ACROSS THE AREA. ANY DIRECTION WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTHWEST EARLY, THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS WITH A
HEAVIER WEIGHTING ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET. THE NAM OVERALL
APPEARED TO INITIALIZE BETTER THAN THE GFS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLUMN SATURATION. WE KEEP MONDAY DRY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS AND WAA BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY WITH QPF UNDER 1/10TH OF AN INCH. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE
SETS USED FOR MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START
WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN
TO SEE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO
COMPARE OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.

FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. ANY DIRECTION WILL SWITCH
FROM MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING CIRRUS BECOMING ALTOCU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINK ANY RAIN CHANCES HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AS THE WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD.
THE WAVE PERIOD WAS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BASED ON THE AVAILABLE BUOY DATA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200410
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1210 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT. ON MONDAY,
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THEN REACH OUR REGION
DURING TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WE WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AS THEY ARE AS DEWPOINTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THESE AREAS ARE STILL LOW AT THIS POINT THAT THERE
IS STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT.
DEWPOINTS HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN SLIGHTLY WHERE THERE IS NO ADVISORY,
AND THERE IS SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SO WE THINK
THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT
WIDESPREAD FROST AND KEEP IT MORE PATCHY IN THESE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM ACROSS THE AREA. ANY DIRECTION WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTHWEST EARLY, THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAV MOS WITH A
HEAVIER WEIGHTING ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET. THE NAM OVERALL
APPEARED TO INITIALIZE BETTER THAN THE GFS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLUMN SATURATION. WE KEEP MONDAY DRY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS AND WAA BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY WITH QPF UNDER 1/10TH OF AN INCH. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE
SETS USED FOR MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START
WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN
TO SEE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO
COMPARE OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.

FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. ANY DIRECTION WILL SWITCH
FROM MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING CIRRUS BECOMING ALTOCU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINK ANY RAIN CHANCES HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS AS THE WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD.
THE WAVE PERIOD WAS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BASED ON THE AVAILABLE BUOY DATA.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/GORSE/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 200140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY AS WELL. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES THIS EVENING. WE WILL
LEAVE THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AS THEY ARE AS DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH
OF THESE AREAS ARE STILL LOW AT THIS POINT THAT THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE
ACTUALLY RISEN SLIGHTLY WHERE THERE IS NO ADVISORY, AND THERE IS
SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SO WE THINK THIS MAY
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST
AND KEEP IT MORE PATCHY IN THESE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM ACROSS THE AREA. ANY DIRECTION WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTHWEST EARLY, THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS WITH A
HEAVIER WEIGHTING ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET. THE NAM OVERALL
APPEARED TO INITIALIZE BETTER THAN THE GFS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLUMN SATURATION. WE KEEP MONDAY DRY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS AND WAA BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
WITH QPF UNDER 1/10TH OF AN INCH. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS USED FOR
MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START
WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN
TO SEE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO
COMPARE OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.


FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. ANY DIRECTION WILL SWITCH
FROM MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING CIRRUS BECOMING ALTOCU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINK ANY RAIN CHANCES HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE DELAWARE BAY WAS ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 8PM AS GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF THERE. THE OCEAN FRONT
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE MIDNIGHT END TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN WILL ALLOW THE WIND AND SEAS TO RELAX LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 200140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY AS WELL. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NO CHANGES TO THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES THIS EVENING. WE WILL
LEAVE THE ADVISORIES/WARNINGS AS THEY ARE AS DEWPOINTS ACROSS MUCH
OF THESE AREAS ARE STILL LOW AT THIS POINT THAT THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF ROOM FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE
ACTUALLY RISEN SLIGHTLY WHERE THERE IS NO ADVISORY, AND THERE IS
SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SO WE THINK THIS MAY
KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST
AND KEEP IT MORE PATCHY IN THESE AREAS.

WIND GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM ACROSS THE AREA. ANY DIRECTION WILL BE MOSTLY
NORTHWEST EARLY, THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS WITH A
HEAVIER WEIGHTING ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET. THE NAM OVERALL
APPEARED TO INITIALIZE BETTER THAN THE GFS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLUMN SATURATION. WE KEEP MONDAY DRY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS AND WAA BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
WITH QPF UNDER 1/10TH OF AN INCH. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS USED FOR
MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START
WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN
TO SEE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO
COMPARE OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.


FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH ONLY CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WIND
GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. ANY DIRECTION WILL SWITCH
FROM MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING CIRRUS BECOMING ALTOCU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINK ANY RAIN CHANCES HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE DELAWARE BAY WAS ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 8PM AS GUSTS HAVE DROPPED OFF THERE. THE OCEAN FRONT
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE MIDNIGHT END TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN WILL ALLOW THE WIND AND SEAS TO RELAX LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 192012 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY AS WELL. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATER THIS
EVENING AS WE LOSE ANY SURFACE HEATING AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS
EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S MOST OF
THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS WELL UNDER THE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS.

THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY LOCATIONS AND TIMING REMAINS
UNCHANGED. THE BIGGEST FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES DROP WITH THE DECOUPLING BEFORE SOME JET CIRRUS ADVECTS
IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE CIRRUS IT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO VERY THICK AND THE MODEL RH VALUES FROM 1000 TO 500MB ARE RATHER
VANILLA SO WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO COOL A BIT OR LEVEL OFF ONCE
THE CLOUDS ROLL IN.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS WITH A HEAVIER
WEIGHTING ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET. THE NAM OVERALL APPEARED TO
INITIALIZE BETTER THAN THE GFS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLUMN SATURATION. WE KEEP MONDAY DRY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS AND WAA BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
WITH QPF UNDER 1/10TH OF AN INCH. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS USED FOR
MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START
WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN
TO SEE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO
COMPARE OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.


FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. WE LOSE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING CIRRUS BECOMING ALTOCU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINK ANY RAIN CHANCES HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...SCA GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH ON THE BAY BY THIS EVENING SO WE
CONTINUE THE END TIME OF 8PM. THE OCEAN FRONT TOO REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM THE MIDNIGHT END TIME. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL ALLOW THE
WIND AND SEAS TO RELAX LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER










000
FXUS61 KPHI 192012 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY AS WELL. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATER THIS
EVENING AS WE LOSE ANY SURFACE HEATING AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS
EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S MOST OF
THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS WELL UNDER THE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS.

THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY LOCATIONS AND TIMING REMAINS
UNCHANGED. THE BIGGEST FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES DROP WITH THE DECOUPLING BEFORE SOME JET CIRRUS ADVECTS
IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE CIRRUS IT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO VERY THICK AND THE MODEL RH VALUES FROM 1000 TO 500MB ARE RATHER
VANILLA SO WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO COOL A BIT OR LEVEL OFF ONCE
THE CLOUDS ROLL IN.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS WITH A HEAVIER
WEIGHTING ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET. THE NAM OVERALL APPEARED TO
INITIALIZE BETTER THAN THE GFS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLUMN SATURATION. WE KEEP MONDAY DRY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS AND WAA BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
WITH QPF UNDER 1/10TH OF AN INCH. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS USED FOR
MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START
WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN
TO SEE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO
COMPARE OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.


FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

OR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST, WITH TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORTING HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT SEASONABLE LEVELS. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME IN THE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY
TIMEFRAME. AT THIS TIME, THE ECMWF INDICATES THE BEST DYNAMICS
SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE, BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO
SPECULATE ON PRECIP CHANCES. IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONT HOLDS,
PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. WE LOSE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING CIRRUS BECOMING ALTOCU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINK ANY RAIN CHANCES HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...SCA GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH ON THE BAY BY THIS EVENING SO WE
CONTINUE THE END TIME OF 8PM. THE OCEAN FRONT TOO REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM THE MIDNIGHT END TIME. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL ALLOW THE
WIND AND SEAS TO RELAX LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER









000
FXUS61 KPHI 191957
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. ON MONDAY A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE ON TUESDAY AS WELL. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEPART THE REGION BY FRIDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATER THIS
EVENING AS WE LOSE ANY SURFACE HEATING AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS
EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS WILL HOVER IN THE UPPER-20S TO LOW-30S MOST OF
THE NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS WELL UNDER THE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS.

THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY LOCATIONS AND TIMING REMAINS
UNCHANGED. THE BIGGEST FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES DROP WITH THE DECOUPLING BEFORE SOME JET CIRRUS ADVECTS
IN FROM THE WEST. LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE CIRRUS IT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO VERY THICK AND THE MODEL RH VALUES FROM 1000 TO 500MB ARE RATHER
VANILLA SO WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO COOL A BIT OR LEVEL OFF ONCE
THE CLOUDS ROLL IN.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WERE A BLEND OF THE MET/MAVMOS WITH A HEAVIER
WEIGHTING ON THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MET. THE NAM OVERALL APPEARED TO
INITIALIZE BETTER THAN THE GFS UPSTREAM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE OTHER THAN WE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO TACK ON A FEW DEGREES TO DAYTIME HIGHS. WINDS BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP THOUGH
NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR COLUMN SATURATION. WE KEEP MONDAY DRY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE RIPPLING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS AND WAA BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ENOUGH LIFT SHOULD BE PRESENT TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA BY SUNRISE TUESDAY
WITH QPF UNDER 1/10TH OF AN INCH. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS USED FOR
MOST WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START
WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF
THE CAROLINA`S. THE UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE
PLUME FROM THE CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN
TO SEE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. A PHASED LOW
FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO
COMPARE OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS.

OVERALL THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS TODAY
THAT THE ABOVE OUTCOME WILL OCCUR. THIS IS REFLECTED IN BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND THE 06Z
GEFS. WITH THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE LOW
STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THE MOST IN TERMS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.
TIMING DIFFERENCES ON THE SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH POPS, KEPT AT HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY.
TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER ONE INCH FOR THIS EVENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF AND NAM FROM TODAY DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO TRANSFER TO THE COAST, THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS NEW DATA COMES IN. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US
WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE TOWARD 60, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE
MODELS AND THERE ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES,
WENT ON THE WARMER END EACH NIGHT AND THE COOLER END DURING EACH
DAY. IN TERMS OF TIDES IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE WIND DIRECTION WILL
NOT CREATE DEPARTURES HIGH ENOUGH FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR
CREATE LOW ENOUGH DEPARTURES FOR BLOWOUT TIDES ATTM.


FRIDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK IN. THIS ALLOWS FOR CLEARING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND
THE FIRST DRY DAY IN A WHILE. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED TO BE
CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z ECMWF MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
MIXING TO LEAD TO SOME AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: DURING D+6 AND D+7, THE NEGATIVE
NAO/POSITIVE PNA PATTERN OF THE PAST TWO WEEKS IS PROJECTED TO
REVERSE. THIS TREND IS UNDERWAY, AND IS EVIDENT IN LESS HIGH-
LATITUDE BLOCKING. THE MAIN MID-LEVEL FEATURES IN THIS TIMEFRAME
ARE A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW ON
SUNDAY. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES, AS THE
GFS EJECTS THE CLOSED LOW SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF, RESULTING IN A
DELAYED RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS FURTHER RESULTS IN THE
GFS MOVING THE SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTHEAST, WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES
IT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO SUPPORT THE ECMWF SOLUTION. GIVEN THE GFS
INITIALIZED MORE ROBUST WITH THE LEAD SHORT-WAVE /LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AS OF THIS WRITING/ THAT RESULTS IN THE CUT-
OFF LOW, AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF,
FEEL THE GFS SOLUTION IS UNREALISTIC. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS ALSO
MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE PROJECTED LACK OF HIGH-LATITUDE
BLOCKING.

FOR SATURDAY, SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME, THE COLUMN IS DRY SO NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, AND TEMPS AT 850 HPA SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
60S REGIONWIDE. A COLD FRONT IS PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SAT NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST DYNAMICS ARE SITUATED TO THE NORTH
AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED THROUGH THE COLUMN. FOR NOW, INCREASED SKY
COVER, BUT DID INSERT ANY POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. IF THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT HOLDS, PROJECTED 850 HPA TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS ON SUNDAY, IN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S.

FINALLY, MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE HYBRID SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN
THE GMEX AT THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PLACING IT IN THE
VICINITY OF FLORIDA DURING THE SATURDAY-SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS
FEATURE WILL BEAR WATCHING.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. WE LOSE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED.

MONDAY...VFR. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS. INCREASING CIRRUS BECOMING ALTOCU BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THINK ANY RAIN CHANCES HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FROM 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...SCA GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH ON THE BAY BY THIS EVENING SO WE
CONTINUE THE END TIME OF 8PM. THE OCEAN FRONT TOO REMAINS UNCHANGED
FROM THE MIDNIGHT END TIME. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL ALLOW THE
WIND AND SEAS TO RELAX LATE TONIGHT.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT WAVEWATCH
IS UNDERDONE BY ABOUT A FOOT ON THE SEAS. SEAS WILL LIKELY BE AT OR
OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DECREASE IN THE
SEAS FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON. SCA POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...FRANCK/GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 191436
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1036 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CREST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE IN TERMS OF PUBLIC PRODUCTS.
ADJUSTED THE WINDS UP A BIT MORE AND ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER
SLIGHTLY TO INCLUDE MORE BREAKS EARLY ON. THE KATABATIC FLOW IS
STARTING TO ERODE THE STRATOCU, SO NO BIG CHANGES TO SKY COVERAGE.

OTHERWISE, THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB
WHILE A COMPROMISE OF BOTH THE WRF AND GFS WORKED BEST AT 850MB
AND 925MB.

IF ANYONE WONDERED WHERE OCTOBER WENT, ITS BACK TODAY. IT WILL
FEATURE A BLUSTERY FALL FEEL TO IT. ONE SHORT WAVE DOWN AND ONE TO
GO THIS MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROF CLEARS OUR CWA. CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST SHORT WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY ABOUT 13Z.

THERE IS STILL THE MATTER OF THE NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LAKE ENHANCED PCPN MIGHT JUST MAKE IT
INTO OUR POCONO CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE CARRY A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY THERE. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THE FCST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME HARDER
TO REACH. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING NORTH UNTIL THIS COMES TO FRUITION. LESS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. TEMPS HAVE
FOUND A WAY TO OUTDO GUIDANCE AND WHILE LOCAL PROCEDURES SUGGEST
GOING LOWER, WE KEPT CONTINUITY. IT WILL BE BREEZY/BLUSTERY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS WHEN MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. IF THIS WERE HALLOWEEN,
THE GREAT PUMPKIN WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING AIRBORNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR
CWA NORTH OF DELMARVA EXCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE 925MB AND 850MB INITIALIZATION, WE USED
A STRAIGHT STAT GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS. WHERE THIS GAVE US
PREDOMINATE MINS OF FREEZING OR LESS IN THE COUNTIES, WE WENT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS. THE NJ PINE BARRENS FIND A WAY TO RADIATE LIKE THE
BEST OF THEM. HERE WE WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR THE FREEZE
WARNING. THE FROST ADVISORY MAINLY SURROUNDS THESE COLDER SPOTS AND
MOST LIKELY TO COME TO FRUITION IN THE MORE RURAL LOW LYING AREAS OF
THOSE COUNTIES INCLUDED. IN DELMARVA, DEW POINTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE AFD.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS DROP LIKE A ROCK
DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A JET STREAK IS PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. THERE IS RIDGING PREDICTED ALOFT AND NO PREDICTED OMEGA
AT THE SUB CIRRUS LEVEL. THE COMBINATION LED TO OUR DECISION NORTH
THAT THE CIRRUS MAY NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING.

AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH, THE ENTRANCE REGION TO THAT JET STREAK
ARRIVES LATER AT NIGHT WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LESS TIME TO PREVENT
FROST/FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURRING. THIS IS ALSO WHY DELMARVA WILL
BE LOOKED CLOSELY TODAY AS THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CIRRUS OVERNIGHT.
FAR FAR NORTH MIGHT BE SAVED BY THE CIRRUS (CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ABOUT
THAT TO NOT ISSUE A WARNING). BETWEEN THERE SHOULD BE A SWEET SPOT
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH AND THE CIRRUS ARRIVES TOO LATE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEHIGH AND RARITAN VALLEYS.

THIS IS RATHER LATE FOR A FREEZE OR A WIDESPREAD FROST (THERE WAS
SOME FROST INTO THE PHL NW SUBURBS EARLIER THIS MONTH) TO AFFECT OUR
CWA. THE PLUS SIDE IS THAT IF PROTECTIVE MEASURES SUCCEED TONIGHT,
FREEZING OR FROSTY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ON TAP FOR A WHILE.
WE BROUGHT IN OUR MEYER LEMON TREE INDOORS YESTERDAY ANYWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND MID 50S OT LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A DEEPENING
H5 LOW WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A
RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FIRST FEW DAYS WILL BE SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
SLGT CHC POPS MON NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS BY
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

WED THRU THU NIGHT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE H5
LOW/TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WED AND THE SFC LOW JUST AHEAD OF IT.
FREQUENT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS OFFERED BY WPC WHICH ARE MOSTLY HIGH
CHC CATEGORY WED THRU THU...THEN SLGT CHC THU NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

FRI THRU SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST WILL
REACH THE LOW 60S FRI/SAT WHILE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z TAFS WILL FEATURE NO BIG CHANGES. WE BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS
SLIGHTLY AND WILL BE ADDING A SOUTHWEST WIND CHANGE GROUP FOR KPHL
FOR MONDAY MORNING.

TODAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTINESS AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE PEAK
WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
     FEW SHOWERS MON NIGHT.
TUE THRU THU...UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND FREQUENT SHOWERS. MOSTLY
     VFR BUT OCNL LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED A SHORT FUSED GALE WARNING THROUGH 3PM FOR THE
DELAWARE BAY AND ADJACENT OCEAN ZONES. STARTING TO SEE WIND GUSTS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 34 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND DUE TO THE
CONTINUED FUNNELING EFFECT OF THE WINDS DOWN THE BAY, FELT IT WAS
A GOOD IDEA TO HOIST THE FLAGS.

AFTER THE GALES COME DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL STILL HAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE...THE END TIME FOR THE OCEAN REMAINS
UNCHANGED. IN ALL LOCATIONS, THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SEAS AND SWELLS ON THE OCEAN SHOULD FALL
BELOW 5 FEET BY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE/TUE
NIGHT. WED THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED AND LASTING
INTO FRI.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-431-454-
     455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 191436
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1036 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CREST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT TOO MUCH CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE IN TERMS OF PUBLIC PRODUCTS.
ADJUSTED THE WINDS UP A BIT MORE AND ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER
SLIGHTLY TO INCLUDE MORE BREAKS EARLY ON. THE KATABATIC FLOW IS
STARTING TO ERODE THE STRATOCU, SO NO BIG CHANGES TO SKY COVERAGE.

OTHERWISE, THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB
WHILE A COMPROMISE OF BOTH THE WRF AND GFS WORKED BEST AT 850MB
AND 925MB.

IF ANYONE WONDERED WHERE OCTOBER WENT, ITS BACK TODAY. IT WILL
FEATURE A BLUSTERY FALL FEEL TO IT. ONE SHORT WAVE DOWN AND ONE TO
GO THIS MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROF CLEARS OUR CWA. CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST SHORT WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY ABOUT 13Z.

THERE IS STILL THE MATTER OF THE NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LAKE ENHANCED PCPN MIGHT JUST MAKE IT
INTO OUR POCONO CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE CARRY A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY THERE. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THE FCST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME HARDER
TO REACH. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING NORTH UNTIL THIS COMES TO FRUITION. LESS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. TEMPS HAVE
FOUND A WAY TO OUTDO GUIDANCE AND WHILE LOCAL PROCEDURES SUGGEST
GOING LOWER, WE KEPT CONTINUITY. IT WILL BE BREEZY/BLUSTERY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS WHEN MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. IF THIS WERE HALLOWEEN,
THE GREAT PUMPKIN WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING AIRBORNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR
CWA NORTH OF DELMARVA EXCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE 925MB AND 850MB INITIALIZATION, WE USED
A STRAIGHT STAT GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS. WHERE THIS GAVE US
PREDOMINATE MINS OF FREEZING OR LESS IN THE COUNTIES, WE WENT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS. THE NJ PINE BARRENS FIND A WAY TO RADIATE LIKE THE
BEST OF THEM. HERE WE WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR THE FREEZE
WARNING. THE FROST ADVISORY MAINLY SURROUNDS THESE COLDER SPOTS AND
MOST LIKELY TO COME TO FRUITION IN THE MORE RURAL LOW LYING AREAS OF
THOSE COUNTIES INCLUDED. IN DELMARVA, DEW POINTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE AFD.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS DROP LIKE A ROCK
DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A JET STREAK IS PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. THERE IS RIDGING PREDICTED ALOFT AND NO PREDICTED OMEGA
AT THE SUB CIRRUS LEVEL. THE COMBINATION LED TO OUR DECISION NORTH
THAT THE CIRRUS MAY NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING.

AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH, THE ENTRANCE REGION TO THAT JET STREAK
ARRIVES LATER AT NIGHT WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LESS TIME TO PREVENT
FROST/FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURRING. THIS IS ALSO WHY DELMARVA WILL
BE LOOKED CLOSELY TODAY AS THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CIRRUS OVERNIGHT.
FAR FAR NORTH MIGHT BE SAVED BY THE CIRRUS (CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ABOUT
THAT TO NOT ISSUE A WARNING). BETWEEN THERE SHOULD BE A SWEET SPOT
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH AND THE CIRRUS ARRIVES TOO LATE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEHIGH AND RARITAN VALLEYS.

THIS IS RATHER LATE FOR A FREEZE OR A WIDESPREAD FROST (THERE WAS
SOME FROST INTO THE PHL NW SUBURBS EARLIER THIS MONTH) TO AFFECT OUR
CWA. THE PLUS SIDE IS THAT IF PROTECTIVE MEASURES SUCCEED TONIGHT,
FREEZING OR FROSTY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ON TAP FOR A WHILE.
WE BROUGHT IN OUR MEYER LEMON TREE INDOORS YESTERDAY ANYWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND MID 50S OT LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A DEEPENING
H5 LOW WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A
RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FIRST FEW DAYS WILL BE SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
SLGT CHC POPS MON NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS BY
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

WED THRU THU NIGHT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE H5
LOW/TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WED AND THE SFC LOW JUST AHEAD OF IT.
FREQUENT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS OFFERED BY WPC WHICH ARE MOSTLY HIGH
CHC CATEGORY WED THRU THU...THEN SLGT CHC THU NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

FRI THRU SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST WILL
REACH THE LOW 60S FRI/SAT WHILE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z TAFS WILL FEATURE NO BIG CHANGES. WE BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS
SLIGHTLY AND WILL BE ADDING A SOUTHWEST WIND CHANGE GROUP FOR KPHL
FOR MONDAY MORNING.

TODAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTINESS AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE PEAK
WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
     FEW SHOWERS MON NIGHT.
TUE THRU THU...UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND FREQUENT SHOWERS. MOSTLY
     VFR BUT OCNL LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED A SHORT FUSED GALE WARNING THROUGH 3PM FOR THE
DELAWARE BAY AND ADJACENT OCEAN ZONES. STARTING TO SEE WIND GUSTS
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 34 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND DUE TO THE
CONTINUED FUNNELING EFFECT OF THE WINDS DOWN THE BAY, FELT IT WAS
A GOOD IDEA TO HOIST THE FLAGS.

AFTER THE GALES COME DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL STILL HAVE THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN PLACE...THE END TIME FOR THE OCEAN REMAINS
UNCHANGED. IN ALL LOCATIONS, THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SEAS AND SWELLS ON THE OCEAN SHOULD FALL
BELOW 5 FEET BY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE/TUE
NIGHT. WED THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED AND LASTING
INTO FRI.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-431-454-
     455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 191036
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
636 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CREST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ESTF UPDATE WE ARE GOING TO START WIND GUSTS A LITTLE
FASTER AS MIXING IS GETTING TO A FAST START THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED UP SLIGHTLY. SPRINKLES ARE REACHING THE
GROUND IN HAZELTON, SO WE WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY FAR NORTH. THE KATABATIC FLOW IS STARTING
TO ERODE THE STRATOCU, SO NO BIG CHANGES TO SKY COVERAGE.

THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB WHILE A
COMPROMISE OF BOTH THE WRF AND GFS WORKED BEST AT 850MB AND 925MB.

IF ANYONE WONDERED WHERE OCTOBER WENT, ITS BACK TODAY. IT WILL
FEATURE A BLUSTERY FALL FEEL TO IT. ONE SHORT WAVE DOWN AND ONE TO
GO THIS MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROF CLEARS OUR CWA. CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST SHORT WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY ABOUT 13Z.

THERE IS STILL THE MATTER OF THE NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LAKE ENHANCED PCPN MIGHT JUST MAKE IT
INTO OUR POCONO CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE CARRY A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY THERE. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THE FCST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME HARDER
TO REACH. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING NORTH UNTIL THIS COMES TO FRUITION. LESS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. TEMPS HAVE
FOUND A WAY TO OUTDO GUIDANCE AND WHILE LOCAL PROCEDURES SUGGEST
GOING LOWER, WE KEPT CONTINUITY. IT WILL BE BREEZY/BLUSTERY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS WHEN MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. IF THIS WERE HALLOWEEN,
THE GREAT PUMPKIN WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING AIRBORNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR
CWA NORTH OF DELMARVA EXCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE 925MB AND 850MB INITIALIZATION, WE USED
A STRAIGHT STAT GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS. WHERE THIS GAVE US
PREDOMINATE MINS OF FREEZING OR LESS IN THE COUNTIES, WE WENT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS. THE NJ PINE BARRENS FIND A WAY TO RADIATE LIKE THE
BEST OF THEM. HERE WE WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR THE FREEZE
WARNING. THE FROST ADVISORY MAINLY SURROUNDS THESE COLDER SPOTS AND
MOST LIKELY TO COME TO FRUITION IN THE MORE RURAL LOW LYING AREAS OF
THOSE COUNTIES INCLUDED. IN DELMARVA, DEW POINTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE AFD.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS DROP LIKE A ROCK
DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A JET STREAK IS PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. THERE IS RIDGING PREDICTED ALOFT AND NO PREDICTED OMEGA
AT THE SUB CIRRUS LEVEL. THE COMBINATION LED TO OUR DECISION NORTH
THAT THE CIRRUS MAY NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING.

AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH, THE ENTRANCE REGION TO THAT JET STREAK
ARRIVES LATER AT NIGHT WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LESS TIME TO PREVENT
FROST/FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURRING. THIS IS ALSO WHY DELMARVA WILL
BE LOOKED CLOSELY TODAY AS THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CIRRUS OVERNIGHT.
FAR FAR NORTH MIGHT BE SAVED BY THE CIRRUS (CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ABOUT
THAT TO NOT ISSUE A WARNING). BETWEEN THERE SHOULD BE A SWEET SPOT
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH AND THE CIRRUS ARRIVES TOO LATE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEHIGH AND RARITAN VALLEYS.

THIS IS RATHER LATE FOR A FREEZE OR A WIDESPREAD FROST (THERE WAS
SOME FROST INTO THE PHL NW SUBURBS EARLIER THIS MONTH) TO AFFECT OUR
CWA. THE PLUS SIDE IS THAT IF PROTECTIVE MEASURES SUCCEED TONIGHT,
FREEZING OR FROSTY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ON TAP FOR A WHILE.
WE BROUGHT IN OUR MEYER LEMON TREE INDOORS YESTERDAY ANYWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND MID 50S OT LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A DEEPENING
H5 LOW WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A
RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FIRST FEW DAYS WILL BE SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
SLGT CHC POPS MON NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS BY
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

WED THRU THU NIGHT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE H5
LOW/TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WED AND THE SFC LOW JUST AHEAD OF IT.
FREQUENT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS OFFERED BY WPC WHICH ARE MOSTLY HIGH
CHC CATEGORY WED THRU THU...THEN SLGT CHC THU NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

FRI THRU SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST WILL
REACH THE LOW 60S FRI/SAT WHILE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z TAFS WILL FEATURE NO BIG CHANGES. WE BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS
SLIGHTLY AND WILL BE ADDING A SOUTHWEST WIND CHANGE GROUP FOR KPHL
FOR MONDAY MORNING.

TIL 12Z...MAINLY A MID DECK VFR CIG FCST WITH WEST WINDS CLOSE TO
10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS ADDED. HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS WILL SEE SOME
MVFR CIGS. NOT SURE ABOUT KABE REMAINING VFR.

SUNDAY DAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS AFTER 12Z OR 13Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
     FEW SHOWERS MON NIGHT.
TUE THRU THU...UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND FREQUENT SHOWERS. MOSTLY
     VFR BUT OCNL LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREDICTED FOR TODAY. NW WINDS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS. TONIGHT WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IN DELAWARE BAY AND LEFT THE SAME
ENDING TIME ON THE OCEAN. IN ALL LOCATIONS, THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SEAS AND SWELLS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 FEET BY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE/TUE NIGHT.
WED THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED AND LASTING INTO FRI.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 191036
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
636 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CREST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ESTF UPDATE WE ARE GOING TO START WIND GUSTS A LITTLE
FASTER AS MIXING IS GETTING TO A FAST START THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED UP SLIGHTLY. SPRINKLES ARE REACHING THE
GROUND IN HAZELTON, SO WE WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY FAR NORTH. THE KATABATIC FLOW IS STARTING
TO ERODE THE STRATOCU, SO NO BIG CHANGES TO SKY COVERAGE.

THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB WHILE A
COMPROMISE OF BOTH THE WRF AND GFS WORKED BEST AT 850MB AND 925MB.

IF ANYONE WONDERED WHERE OCTOBER WENT, ITS BACK TODAY. IT WILL
FEATURE A BLUSTERY FALL FEEL TO IT. ONE SHORT WAVE DOWN AND ONE TO
GO THIS MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROF CLEARS OUR CWA. CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST SHORT WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY ABOUT 13Z.

THERE IS STILL THE MATTER OF THE NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LAKE ENHANCED PCPN MIGHT JUST MAKE IT
INTO OUR POCONO CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE CARRY A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY THERE. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THE FCST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME HARDER
TO REACH. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING NORTH UNTIL THIS COMES TO FRUITION. LESS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. TEMPS HAVE
FOUND A WAY TO OUTDO GUIDANCE AND WHILE LOCAL PROCEDURES SUGGEST
GOING LOWER, WE KEPT CONTINUITY. IT WILL BE BREEZY/BLUSTERY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS WHEN MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. IF THIS WERE HALLOWEEN,
THE GREAT PUMPKIN WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING AIRBORNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR
CWA NORTH OF DELMARVA EXCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE 925MB AND 850MB INITIALIZATION, WE USED
A STRAIGHT STAT GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS. WHERE THIS GAVE US
PREDOMINATE MINS OF FREEZING OR LESS IN THE COUNTIES, WE WENT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS. THE NJ PINE BARRENS FIND A WAY TO RADIATE LIKE THE
BEST OF THEM. HERE WE WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR THE FREEZE
WARNING. THE FROST ADVISORY MAINLY SURROUNDS THESE COLDER SPOTS AND
MOST LIKELY TO COME TO FRUITION IN THE MORE RURAL LOW LYING AREAS OF
THOSE COUNTIES INCLUDED. IN DELMARVA, DEW POINTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE AFD.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS DROP LIKE A ROCK
DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A JET STREAK IS PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. THERE IS RIDGING PREDICTED ALOFT AND NO PREDICTED OMEGA
AT THE SUB CIRRUS LEVEL. THE COMBINATION LED TO OUR DECISION NORTH
THAT THE CIRRUS MAY NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING.

AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH, THE ENTRANCE REGION TO THAT JET STREAK
ARRIVES LATER AT NIGHT WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LESS TIME TO PREVENT
FROST/FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURRING. THIS IS ALSO WHY DELMARVA WILL
BE LOOKED CLOSELY TODAY AS THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CIRRUS OVERNIGHT.
FAR FAR NORTH MIGHT BE SAVED BY THE CIRRUS (CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ABOUT
THAT TO NOT ISSUE A WARNING). BETWEEN THERE SHOULD BE A SWEET SPOT
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH AND THE CIRRUS ARRIVES TOO LATE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEHIGH AND RARITAN VALLEYS.

THIS IS RATHER LATE FOR A FREEZE OR A WIDESPREAD FROST (THERE WAS
SOME FROST INTO THE PHL NW SUBURBS EARLIER THIS MONTH) TO AFFECT OUR
CWA. THE PLUS SIDE IS THAT IF PROTECTIVE MEASURES SUCCEED TONIGHT,
FREEZING OR FROSTY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ON TAP FOR A WHILE.
WE BROUGHT IN OUR MEYER LEMON TREE INDOORS YESTERDAY ANYWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND MID 50S OT LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A DEEPENING
H5 LOW WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A
RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FIRST FEW DAYS WILL BE SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
SLGT CHC POPS MON NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS BY
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

WED THRU THU NIGHT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE H5
LOW/TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WED AND THE SFC LOW JUST AHEAD OF IT.
FREQUENT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS OFFERED BY WPC WHICH ARE MOSTLY HIGH
CHC CATEGORY WED THRU THU...THEN SLGT CHC THU NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

FRI THRU SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST WILL
REACH THE LOW 60S FRI/SAT WHILE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z TAFS WILL FEATURE NO BIG CHANGES. WE BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS
SLIGHTLY AND WILL BE ADDING A SOUTHWEST WIND CHANGE GROUP FOR KPHL
FOR MONDAY MORNING.

TIL 12Z...MAINLY A MID DECK VFR CIG FCST WITH WEST WINDS CLOSE TO
10 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS ADDED. HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS WILL SEE SOME
MVFR CIGS. NOT SURE ABOUT KABE REMAINING VFR.

SUNDAY DAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS AFTER 12Z OR 13Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR CLEAR SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
     FEW SHOWERS MON NIGHT.
TUE THRU THU...UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND FREQUENT SHOWERS. MOSTLY
     VFR BUT OCNL LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREDICTED FOR TODAY. NW WINDS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS. TONIGHT WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IN DELAWARE BAY AND LEFT THE SAME
ENDING TIME ON THE OCEAN. IN ALL LOCATIONS, THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SEAS AND SWELLS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 FEET BY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE/TUE NIGHT.
WED THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED AND LASTING INTO FRI.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 190745
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CREST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB WHILE A
COMPROMISE OF BOTH THE WRF AND GFS WORKED BEST AT 850MB AND 925MB.

IF ANYONE WONDERED WHERE OCTOBER WENT, ITS BACK TODAY. IT WILL
FEATURE A BLUSTERY FALL FEEL TO IT. ONE SHORT WAVE DOWN AND ONE TO
GO THIS MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROF CLEARS OUR CWA. CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST SHORT WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY ABOUT 13Z.

THERE IS STILL THE MATTER OF THE NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LAKE ENHANCED PCPN MIGHT JUST MAKE IT
INTO OUR POCONO CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE CARRY A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY THERE. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THE FCST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME HARDER
TO REACH. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING NORTH UNTIL THIS COMES TO FRUITION. LESS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. TEMPS HAVE
FOUND A WAY TO OUTDO GUIDANCE AND WHILE LOCAL PROCEDURES SUGGEST
GOING LOWER, WE KEPT CONTINUITY. IT WILL BE BREEZY/BLUSTERY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS WHEN MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. IF THIS WERE HALLOWEEN,
THE GREAT PUMPKIN WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING AIRBORNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR
CWA NORTH OF DELMARVA EXCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE 925MB AND 850MB INITIALIZATION, WE USED
A STRAIGHT STAT GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS. WHERE THIS GAVE US
PREDOMINATE MINS OF FREEZING OR LESS IN THE COUNTIES, WE WENT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS. THE NJ PINE BARRENS FIND A WAY TO RADIATE LIKE THE
BEST OF THEM. HERE WE WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR THE FREEZE
WARNING. THE FROST ADVISORY MAINLY SURROUNDS THESE COLDER SPOTS AND
MOST LIKELY TO COME TO FRUITION IN THE MORE RURAL LOW LYING AREAS OF
THOSE COUNTIES INCLUDED. IN DELMARVA, DEW POINTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE AFD.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS DROP LIKE A ROCK
DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A JET STREAK IS PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. THERE IS RIDGING PREDICTED ALOFT AND NO PREDICTED OMEGA
AT THE SUB CIRRUS LEVEL. THE COMBINATION LED TO OUR DECISION NORTH
THAT THE CIRRUS MAY NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING.

AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH, THE ENTRANCE REGION TO THAT JET STREAK
ARRIVES LATER AT NIGHT WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LESS TIME TO PREVENT
FROST/FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURRING. THIS IS ALSO WHY DELMARVA WILL
BE LOOKED CLOSELY TODAY AS THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CIRRUS OVERNIGHT.
FAR FAR NORTH MIGHT BE SAVED BY THE CIRRUS (CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ABOUT
THAT TO NOT ISSUE A WARNING). BETWEEN THERE SHOULD BE A SWEET SPOT
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH AND THE CIRRUS ARRIVES TOO LATE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEHIGH AND RARITAN VALLEYS.

THIS IS RATHER LATE FOR A FREEZE OR A WIDESPREAD FROST (THERE WAS
SOME FROST INTO THE PHL NW SUBURBS EARLIER THIS MONTH) TO AFFECT OUR
CWA. THE PLUS SIDE IS THAT IF PROTECTIVE MEASURES SUCCEED TONIGHT,
FREEZING OR FROSTY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ON TAP FOR A WHILE.
WE BROUGHT IN OUR MEYER LEMON TREE INDOORS YESTERDAY ANYWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND MID 50S OT LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A DEEPENING
H5 LOW WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A
RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FIRST FEW DAYS WILL BE SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
SLGT CHC POPS MON NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS BY
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

WED THRU THU NIGHT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE H5
LOW/TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WED AND THE SFC LOW JUST AHEAD OF IT.
FREQUENT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS OFFERED BY WPC WHICH ARE MOSTLY HIGH
CHC CATEGORY WED THRU THU...THEN SLGT CHC THU NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

FRI THRU SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST WILL
REACH THE LOW 60S FRI/SAT WHILE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z TAFS WERE VFR.

REST OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY A MID DECK VFR CIG FCST WITH WEST
WINDS CLOSE TO 10 KTS. HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS WILL SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS. NOT SURE ABOUT KABE REMAINING VFR.

SUNDAY DAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS AFTER 12Z OR 13Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
     FEW SHOWERS MON NIGHT.
TUE THRU THU...UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND FREQUENT SHOWERS. MOSTLY
     VFR BUT OCNL LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREDICTED FOR TODAY. NW WINDS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS. TONIGHT WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IN DELAWARE BAY AND LEFT THE SAME
ENDING TIME ON THE OCEAN. IN ALL LOCATIONS, THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SEAS AND SWELLS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 FEET BY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE/TUE NIGHT.
WED THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED AND LASTING INTO FRI.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 190745
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE
EAST AND CREST OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MORE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER AT 500MB WHILE A
COMPROMISE OF BOTH THE WRF AND GFS WORKED BEST AT 850MB AND 925MB.

IF ANYONE WONDERED WHERE OCTOBER WENT, ITS BACK TODAY. IT WILL
FEATURE A BLUSTERY FALL FEEL TO IT. ONE SHORT WAVE DOWN AND ONE TO
GO THIS MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROF CLEARS OUR CWA. CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST SHORT WAVE IS NOW MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA AND
SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BY ABOUT 13Z.

THERE IS STILL THE MATTER OF THE NW FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME LAKE ENHANCED PCPN MIGHT JUST MAKE IT
INTO OUR POCONO CWA BEFORE DISSIPATING. WE CARRY A CHANCE OF
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES EARLY THERE. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, THE FCST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOWERS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS BECOME HARDER
TO REACH. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING NORTH UNTIL THIS COMES TO FRUITION. LESS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. TEMPS HAVE
FOUND A WAY TO OUTDO GUIDANCE AND WHILE LOCAL PROCEDURES SUGGEST
GOING LOWER, WE KEPT CONTINUITY. IT WILL BE BREEZY/BLUSTERY TODAY,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE MID DAY HOURS WHEN MIXING SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.
PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. IF THIS WERE HALLOWEEN,
THE GREAT PUMPKIN WOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM GETTING AIRBORNE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR
CWA NORTH OF DELMARVA EXCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE PHILADELPHIA AREA.

BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE 925MB AND 850MB INITIALIZATION, WE USED
A STRAIGHT STAT GUIDANCE BLEND FOR MINS. WHERE THIS GAVE US
PREDOMINATE MINS OF FREEZING OR LESS IN THE COUNTIES, WE WENT WITH
FREEZE WARNINGS. THE NJ PINE BARRENS FIND A WAY TO RADIATE LIKE THE
BEST OF THEM. HERE WE WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR THE FREEZE
WARNING. THE FROST ADVISORY MAINLY SURROUNDS THESE COLDER SPOTS AND
MOST LIKELY TO COME TO FRUITION IN THE MORE RURAL LOW LYING AREAS OF
THOSE COUNTIES INCLUDED. IN DELMARVA, DEW POINTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS AND CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST IN THE AFD.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY TONIGHT AND TEMPS DROP LIKE A ROCK
DURING THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT A JET STREAK IS PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING. THERE IS RIDGING PREDICTED ALOFT AND NO PREDICTED OMEGA
AT THE SUB CIRRUS LEVEL. THE COMBINATION LED TO OUR DECISION NORTH
THAT THE CIRRUS MAY NOT BE THICK ENOUGH TO HOLD TEMPS ABOVE
FREEZING.

AS WE MOVE FARTHER SOUTH, THE ENTRANCE REGION TO THAT JET STREAK
ARRIVES LATER AT NIGHT WITH LESS MOISTURE AND LESS TIME TO PREVENT
FROST/FREEZING TEMPS FROM OCCURRING. THIS IS ALSO WHY DELMARVA WILL
BE LOOKED CLOSELY TODAY AS THEY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CIRRUS OVERNIGHT.
FAR FAR NORTH MIGHT BE SAVED BY THE CIRRUS (CONFIDENCE TOO LOW ABOUT
THAT TO NOT ISSUE A WARNING). BETWEEN THERE SHOULD BE A SWEET SPOT
WHERE DEW POINTS ARE LOW ENOUGH AND THE CIRRUS ARRIVES TOO LATE.
MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE LEHIGH AND RARITAN VALLEYS.

THIS IS RATHER LATE FOR A FREEZE OR A WIDESPREAD FROST (THERE WAS
SOME FROST INTO THE PHL NW SUBURBS EARLIER THIS MONTH) TO AFFECT OUR
CWA. THE PLUS SIDE IS THAT IF PROTECTIVE MEASURES SUCCEED TONIGHT,
FREEZING OR FROSTY CONDITIONS ARE NOT ON TAP FOR A WHILE.
WE BROUGHT IN OUR MEYER LEMON TREE INDOORS YESTERDAY ANYWAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE MOVING EAST. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S NORTH AND MID 50S OT LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A DEEPENING
H5 LOW WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A
RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FIRST FEW DAYS WILL BE SHOWERS WITH TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.
SLGT CHC POPS MON NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO HIGH CHC/LOW LIKELY POPS BY
TUE NIGHT. HIGHS TUE WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH.

WED THRU THU NIGHT...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH THE H5
LOW/TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA WED AND THE SFC LOW JUST AHEAD OF IT.
FREQUENT PERIODS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WE HAVE KEPT THE POPS OFFERED BY WPC WHICH ARE MOSTLY HIGH
CHC CATEGORY WED THRU THU...THEN SLGT CHC THU NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL MOSTLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S.

FRI THRU SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND POINTS SOUTH/EAST WILL
REACH THE LOW 60S FRI/SAT WHILE READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST WILL
BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z TAFS WERE VFR.

REST OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY A MID DECK VFR CIG FCST WITH WEST
WINDS CLOSE TO 10 KTS. HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS WILL SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS. NOT SURE ABOUT KABE REMAINING VFR.

SUNDAY DAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS AFTER 12Z OR 13Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
     FEW SHOWERS MON NIGHT.
TUE THRU THU...UNSETTLED WITH CLOUDS AND FREQUENT SHOWERS. MOSTLY
     VFR BUT OCNL LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREDICTED FOR TODAY. NW WINDS
SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS. TONIGHT WE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS IN DELAWARE BAY AND LEFT THE SAME
ENDING TIME ON THE OCEAN. IN ALL LOCATIONS, THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND SEAS AND SWELLS ON THE OCEAN
SHOULD FALL BELOW 5 FEET BY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
MON THRU TUE NIGHT...SUB VFR CONDITIONS. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE/TUE NIGHT.
WED THRU FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WED AND LASTING INTO FRI.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-
     062.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ020>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NJZ012-013-
     015>019-023.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 190502
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
102 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT
WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES PREDICTED TO PASS OVERNIGHT ARE INDICATING
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PCPN REACHING THE GROUND IN THE NWRN PART OF
OUR CWA. SO WE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS LONGER. WE SUPPOSE
HIGHEST TERRAIN NORTHWEST MIGHT SEE A WET SNOWFLAKE TOWARD DAWN.
NO OTHER BIG CHANGES TO THE ESTF, MAINLY SOME SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS SOUTH.

WE GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A STEADY BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED, SO EVEN
WITH THE COOLER DEWPOINTS AND AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID- 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW LATE MORNING
AND WE SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WITH MUCH
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SHOULD BE DRY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY`S.
HIGHS WILL END UP BEING IN THE LOW TO MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, GOOD SET-UP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THIS PERIOD ARE
MODELED IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GFS AND
THE RESPECTIVE MAV GUIDANCE ARE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THAT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS LOWS RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY PRESENT FOR A FREEZE EVENT ACROSS CARBON,
MONROE AND SUSSEX COUNTIES SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE, LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. FAIRLY LIMITED
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TOOLS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, COOLER NW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE
FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER
LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. THE MAIN LOW FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE
OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOW AN INTERESTING INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
WHICH ENHANCES SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC KEPT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DRY
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. IN TERMS OF THE ENSEMBLES SEVERAL WETTER
MEMBERS WERE PRESENT IN THE 06Z GEFS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMED TO
BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
NAO IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR NEUTRAL, WHICH DOESN`T INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT THAT THIS PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE LOW STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT
NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW
60`S, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND THERE
ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF TIDES
ONCE A BETTER HANDLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE POSITION AND WIND
DIRECTION ARE ESTABLISHED CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON WHAT IF ANY
TIDAL ISSUES WILL BE PRESENT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
WENT ON THE WARMER END OF THE MODEL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE GIVEN REBOUNDING 925/850 MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

06Z TAFS VFR.

REST OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY A MID DECK VFR CIG FCST WITH WEST
WINDS CLOSE TO 10 KTS. HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS WILL SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS.

SUNDAY DAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS AFTER 12Z OR 13Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.

TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE...AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WE COULD SEE CLOSE TO
GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE POTENTIAL WIND FUNNELING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEANFRONT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: EARLY IN THE EVENING SEAS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE DECREASING BELOW SCA THRESHOLD EARLY AND WILL
ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERDONE. SEAS WILL LIKELY OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 190502
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
102 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT
WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES PREDICTED TO PASS OVERNIGHT ARE INDICATING
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PCPN REACHING THE GROUND IN THE NWRN PART OF
OUR CWA. SO WE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS LONGER. WE SUPPOSE
HIGHEST TERRAIN NORTHWEST MIGHT SEE A WET SNOWFLAKE TOWARD DAWN.
NO OTHER BIG CHANGES TO THE ESTF, MAINLY SOME SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS SOUTH.

WE GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A STEADY BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED, SO EVEN
WITH THE COOLER DEWPOINTS AND AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID- 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW LATE MORNING
AND WE SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WITH MUCH
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SHOULD BE DRY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY`S.
HIGHS WILL END UP BEING IN THE LOW TO MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, GOOD SET-UP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THIS PERIOD ARE
MODELED IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GFS AND
THE RESPECTIVE MAV GUIDANCE ARE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THAT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS LOWS RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY PRESENT FOR A FREEZE EVENT ACROSS CARBON,
MONROE AND SUSSEX COUNTIES SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE, LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. FAIRLY LIMITED
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TOOLS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, COOLER NW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE
FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER
LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. THE MAIN LOW FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE
OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOW AN INTERESTING INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
WHICH ENHANCES SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC KEPT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DRY
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. IN TERMS OF THE ENSEMBLES SEVERAL WETTER
MEMBERS WERE PRESENT IN THE 06Z GEFS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMED TO
BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
NAO IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR NEUTRAL, WHICH DOESN`T INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT THAT THIS PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE LOW STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT
NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW
60`S, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND THERE
ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF TIDES
ONCE A BETTER HANDLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE POSITION AND WIND
DIRECTION ARE ESTABLISHED CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON WHAT IF ANY
TIDAL ISSUES WILL BE PRESENT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
WENT ON THE WARMER END OF THE MODEL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE GIVEN REBOUNDING 925/850 MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

06Z TAFS VFR.

REST OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY A MID DECK VFR CIG FCST WITH WEST
WINDS CLOSE TO 10 KTS. HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS WILL SEE SOME MVFR
CIGS.

SUNDAY DAY...VFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT AIRPORTS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
PHILADELPHIA AND INTERSTATE 195 IN NJ. EVEN SOME MVFR CIGS EARLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELSEWHERE MAINLY JUST A SCATTERED DECK OF CU
CLOUDS AFTER 12Z OR 13Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTINESS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. STAT GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BY ABOUT 18Z. CLEARING OR
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS TOWARD SUNSET.

SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHTER NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST TERMINALS. ANY CLOUDS WILL BE AT CIRRUS
LEVEL AND MORE LIKELY LATER AT NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR.

TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE...AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WE COULD SEE CLOSE TO
GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE POTENTIAL WIND FUNNELING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEANFRONT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: EARLY IN THE EVENING SEAS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE DECREASING BELOW SCA THRESHOLD EARLY AND WILL
ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERDONE. SEAS WILL LIKELY OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER








000
FXUS61 KPHI 190427
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1227 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT
WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES PREDICTED TO PASS OVERNIGHT ARE INDICATING
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PCPN REACHING THE GROUND IN THE NWRN PART OF
OUR CWA. SO WE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS LONGER. WE SUPPOSE
HIGHEST TERRAIN NORTHWEST MIGHT SEE A WET SNOWFLAKE TOWARD DAWN.
NO OTHER BIG CHANGES TO THE ESTF, MAINLY SOME SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS SOUTH.

WE GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A STEADY BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED, SO EVEN
WITH THE COOLER DEWPOINTS AND AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID- 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW LATE MORNING
AND WE SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WITH MUCH
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SHOULD BE DRY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY`S.
HIGHS WILL END UP BEING IN THE LOW TO MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, GOOD SET-UP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THIS PERIOD ARE
MODELED IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GFS AND
THE RESPECTIVE MAV GUIDANCE ARE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THAT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS LOWS RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY PRESENT FOR A FREEZE EVENT ACROSS CARBON,
MONROE AND SUSSEX COUNTIES SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE, LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. FAIRLY LIMITED
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TOOLS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, COOLER NW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE
FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER
LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. THE MAIN LOW FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE
OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOW AN INTERESTING INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
WHICH ENHANCES SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC KEPT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DRY
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. IN TERMS OF THE ENSEMBLES SEVERAL WETTER
MEMBERS WERE PRESENT IN THE 06Z GEFS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMED TO
BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
NAO IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR NEUTRAL, WHICH DOESN`T INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT THAT THIS PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE LOW STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT
NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW
60`S, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND THERE
ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF TIDES
ONCE A BETTER HANDLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE POSITION AND WIND
DIRECTION ARE ESTABLISHED CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON WHAT IF ANY
TIDAL ISSUES WILL BE PRESENT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
WENT ON THE WARMER END OF THE MODEL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE GIVEN REBOUNDING 925/850 MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STRATOCU DECK BEGINS TO THIN AND SCATTER OUT LATE TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. MORE GUSTY NW WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS, WILL
COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SOME HIGHER GUSTS EARLY IN THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE...AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WE COULD SEE CLOSE TO
GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE POTENTIAL WIND FUNNELING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEANFRONT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: EARLY IN THE EVENING SEAS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE DECREASING BELOW SCA THRESHOLD EARLY AND WILL
ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERDONE. SEAS WILL LIKELY OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 190427
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1227 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT
WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES PREDICTED TO PASS OVERNIGHT ARE INDICATING
AT LEAST A CHANCE OF PCPN REACHING THE GROUND IN THE NWRN PART OF
OUR CWA. SO WE EXTENDED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS LONGER. WE SUPPOSE
HIGHEST TERRAIN NORTHWEST MIGHT SEE A WET SNOWFLAKE TOWARD DAWN.
NO OTHER BIG CHANGES TO THE ESTF, MAINLY SOME SKY COVER
ADJUSTMENTS IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS SOUTH.

WE GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A STEADY BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED, SO EVEN
WITH THE COOLER DEWPOINTS AND AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID- 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW LATE MORNING
AND WE SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WITH MUCH
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SHOULD BE DRY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY`S.
HIGHS WILL END UP BEING IN THE LOW TO MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, GOOD SET-UP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THIS PERIOD ARE
MODELED IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GFS AND
THE RESPECTIVE MAV GUIDANCE ARE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THAT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS LOWS RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY PRESENT FOR A FREEZE EVENT ACROSS CARBON,
MONROE AND SUSSEX COUNTIES SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE, LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. FAIRLY LIMITED
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TOOLS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, COOLER NW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE
FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER
LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. THE MAIN LOW FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE
OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOW AN INTERESTING INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
WHICH ENHANCES SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC KEPT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DRY
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. IN TERMS OF THE ENSEMBLES SEVERAL WETTER
MEMBERS WERE PRESENT IN THE 06Z GEFS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMED TO
BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
NAO IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR NEUTRAL, WHICH DOESN`T INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT THAT THIS PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE LOW STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT
NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW
60`S, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND THERE
ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF TIDES
ONCE A BETTER HANDLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE POSITION AND WIND
DIRECTION ARE ESTABLISHED CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON WHAT IF ANY
TIDAL ISSUES WILL BE PRESENT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
WENT ON THE WARMER END OF THE MODEL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE GIVEN REBOUNDING 925/850 MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STRATOCU DECK BEGINS TO THIN AND SCATTER OUT LATE TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. MORE GUSTY NW WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS, WILL
COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SOME HIGHER GUSTS EARLY IN THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE...AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WE COULD SEE CLOSE TO
GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE POTENTIAL WIND FUNNELING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEANFRONT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: EARLY IN THE EVENING SEAS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE DECREASING BELOW SCA THRESHOLD EARLY AND WILL
ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERDONE. SEAS WILL LIKELY OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER








000
FXUS61 KPHI 190134
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
934 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT
WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WERE TO OUR NORTHWEST
HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN LOST, EXCEPT
FOR A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE AREA. THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
THIS EVENING, BUT NOT MUCH MORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WE
GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

THE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BUT A
STEADY BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED, SO EVEN WITH THE COOLER
DEWPOINTS AND AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW LATE MORNING
AND WE SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WITH MUCH
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SHOULD BE DRY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY`S.
HIGHS WILL END UP BEING IN THE LOW TO MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, GOOD SET-UP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THIS PERIOD ARE
MODELED IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GFS AND
THE RESPECTIVE MAV GUIDANCE ARE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THAT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS LOWS RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY PRESENT FOR A FREEZE EVENT ACROSS CARBON,
MONROE AND SUSSEX COUNTIES SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE, LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. FAIRLY LIMITED
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TOOLS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, COOLER NW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE
FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER
LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. THE MAIN LOW FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE
OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOW AN INTERESTING INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
WHICH ENHANCES SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC KEPT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DRY
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. IN TERMS OF THE ENSEMBLES SEVERAL WETTER
MEMBERS WERE PRESENT IN THE 06Z GEFS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMED TO
BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
NAO IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR NEUTRAL, WHICH DOESN`T INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT THAT THIS PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE LOW STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT
NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW
60`S, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND THERE
ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF TIDES
ONCE A BETTER HANDLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE POSITION AND WIND
DIRECTION ARE ESTABLISHED CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON WHAT IF ANY
TIDAL ISSUES WILL BE PRESENT.


FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. WENT
ON THE WARMER END OF THE MODEL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE GIVEN REBOUNDING 925/850 MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS DROP OFF SOME BUT WE KEEP THE HIGHER
SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATOCU DECK BEGINS TO THIN
AND SCATTER OUT LATE TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. MORE GUSTY NW WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS, WILL
COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SOME HIGHER GUSTS EARLY IN THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE...AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WE COULD SEE CLOSE TO
GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE POTENTIAL WIND FUNNELING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEANFRONT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: EARLY IN THE EVENING SEAS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE DECREASING BELOW SCA THRESHOLD EARLY AND WILL
ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERDONE. SEAS WILL LIKELY OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER









000
FXUS61 KPHI 190134
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
934 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT
WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT WERE TO OUR NORTHWEST
HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN LOST, EXCEPT
FOR A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF
THE AREA. THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
THIS EVENING, BUT NOT MUCH MORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WE
GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

THE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BUT A
STEADY BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED, SO EVEN WITH THE COOLER
DEWPOINTS AND AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW LATE MORNING
AND WE SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WITH MUCH
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SHOULD BE DRY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY`S.
HIGHS WILL END UP BEING IN THE LOW TO MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, GOOD SET-UP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THIS PERIOD ARE
MODELED IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GFS AND
THE RESPECTIVE MAV GUIDANCE ARE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THAT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS LOWS RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY PRESENT FOR A FREEZE EVENT ACROSS CARBON,
MONROE AND SUSSEX COUNTIES SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE, LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. FAIRLY LIMITED
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TOOLS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, COOLER NW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE
FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER
LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. THE MAIN LOW FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE
OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOW AN INTERESTING INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
WHICH ENHANCES SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC KEPT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DRY
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. IN TERMS OF THE ENSEMBLES SEVERAL WETTER
MEMBERS WERE PRESENT IN THE 06Z GEFS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMED TO
BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
NAO IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR NEUTRAL, WHICH DOESN`T INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT THAT THIS PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE LOW STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT
NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW
60`S, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND THERE
ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF TIDES
ONCE A BETTER HANDLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE POSITION AND WIND
DIRECTION ARE ESTABLISHED CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON WHAT IF ANY
TIDAL ISSUES WILL BE PRESENT.


FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. WENT
ON THE WARMER END OF THE MODEL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE GIVEN REBOUNDING 925/850 MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS DROP OFF SOME BUT WE KEEP THE HIGHER
SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATOCU DECK BEGINS TO THIN
AND SCATTER OUT LATE TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. MORE GUSTY NW WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS, WILL
COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SOME HIGHER GUSTS EARLY IN THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE...AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WE COULD SEE CLOSE TO
GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE POTENTIAL WIND FUNNELING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEANFRONT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: EARLY IN THE EVENING SEAS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE DECREASING BELOW SCA THRESHOLD EARLY AND WILL
ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERDONE. SEAS WILL LIKELY OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER








000
FXUS61 KPHI 182009
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
409 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT
WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR CWA. THE LATEST ASOS OBSERVATIONS SHOWED NOTHING MORE THAN TRACE
THOUGH THERE COULD BE A HUNDREDTH FALLING BETWEEN OBS SO WE KEEP THE
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE LAYER
CONTINUES TO DRY OUT.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECOUPLE, SLIGHTLY LATER THIS EVENING
BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WELL MIXED SO EVEN WITH THE COOLER DEWPOINTS AND AIRMASS IN
PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW LATE MORNING
AND WE SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WITH MUCH
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SHOULD BE DRY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAYS.
HIGHS WILL END UP BEING IN THE LOW TO MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, GOOD SET-UP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THIS PERIOD ARE
MODELED IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GFS AND
THE RESPECTIVE MAV GUIDANCE ARE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THAT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS LOWS RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY PRESENT FOR A FREEZE EVENT ACROSS CARBON,
MONROE AND SUSSEX COUNTIES SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE, LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. FAIRLY LIMITED
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TOOLS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, COOLER NW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE
FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER
LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. THE MAIN LOW FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE
OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOW AN INTERESTING INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
WHICH ENHANCES SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC KEPT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DRY
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. IN TERMS OF THE ENSEMBLES SEVERAL WETTER
MEMBERS WERE PRESENT IN THE 06Z GEFS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMED TO
BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
NAO IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR NEUTRAL, WHICH DOESN`T INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT THAT THIS PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE LOW STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT
NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW
60`S, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND THERE
ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF TIDES
ONCE A BETTER HANDLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE POSITION AND WIND
DIRECTION ARE ESTABLISHED CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON WHAT IF ANY
TIDAL ISSUES WILL BE PRESENT.


FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. WENT
ON THE WARMER END OF THE MODEL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE GIVEN REBOUNDING 925/850 MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS DROP OFF SOME BUT WE KEEP THE HIGHER
SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATOCU DECK BEGINS TO THIN
AND SCATTER OUT LATE TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. MORE GUSTY NW WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS, WILL
COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SOME HIGHER GUSTS EARLY IN THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE...AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WE COULD SEE CLOSE TO
GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE POTENTIAL WIND FUNNELING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEANFRONT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: EARLY IN THE EVENING SEAS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE DECREASING BELOW SCA THRESHOLD EARLY AND WILL
ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERDONE. SEAS WILL LIKELY OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER....
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH DRYING FINE FUELS AND
DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED FIRE
SPREAD RISK. STILL THINK THE HUMIDITIES WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR
IN TERMS OF REED FLAG THOUGH WE SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER-30S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION AS NEW DATA STREAMS IN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER
FIRE WEATHER... HEAVENER








000
FXUS61 KPHI 182009
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
409 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVE OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. BY TUESDAY A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THESE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT
WITH EACH OTHER AND MERGE JUST OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
DEPARTING THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR CWA. THE LATEST ASOS OBSERVATIONS SHOWED NOTHING MORE THAN TRACE
THOUGH THERE COULD BE A HUNDREDTH FALLING BETWEEN OBS SO WE KEEP THE
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE.
THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE
CONTINUES TO LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE LAYER
CONTINUES TO DRY OUT.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECOUPLE, SLIGHTLY LATER THIS EVENING
BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WELL MIXED SO EVEN WITH THE COOLER DEWPOINTS AND AIRMASS IN
PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO
MID-40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW LATE MORNING
AND WE SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF STRONGER NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS WITH MUCH
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SHOULD BE DRY AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
BUT THE AIRMASS WILL BE NEARLY 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAYS.
HIGHS WILL END UP BEING IN THE LOW TO MID-50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, GOOD SET-UP FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING. DEWPOINTS BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS IN THIS PERIOD ARE
MODELED IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S. CURRENT THINKING IS THE GFS AND
THE RESPECTIVE MAV GUIDANCE ARE TO AGGRESSIVE WITH COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES. EVEN WITH THAT THE MET GUIDANCE HAS LOWS RIGHT
AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY PRESENT FOR A FREEZE EVENT ACROSS CARBON,
MONROE AND SUSSEX COUNTIES SO A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: STILL LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE, LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP. FAIRLY LIMITED
TEMPERATURE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TEMPERATURE FORECASTING TOOLS
WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE AREA, COOLER NW.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND BE SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD. THE END RESULT WILL BE GRAY GLOOMY COOLER DAYS FEATURING
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. THE
FORMATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL START WITH TWO PIECES, A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND COLD FRONT DIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND A LOW PRESSURE FORMING OFF THE CAROLINAS. THE UPPER
LOW AND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY TO THE REGION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE
CAROLINA LOW WELL OFFSHORE. BY TUESDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO SEE MORE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE FEATURES, PHASING. THE MAIN LOW FORMS OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAJORITY
OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TO COMPARE
OUR REGION WOULD BE FAVORED FOR JUST SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS.

THE LAST TWO ECMWF RUNS SHOW AN INTERESTING INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE
WHICH ENHANCES SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ON THE OTHER HAND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS AND CMC KEPT A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA DRY
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THIS PERIOD. IN TERMS OF THE ENSEMBLES SEVERAL WETTER
MEMBERS WERE PRESENT IN THE 06Z GEFS WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMED TO
BE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHEAST COMPARED TO IT`S ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE
NAO IS LIKELY TO BE NEAR NEUTRAL, WHICH DOESN`T INSPIRE CONFIDENCE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE THAN CURRENTLY
MODELED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING SOMEWHAT THAT THIS PERIOD WILL
BE DOMINATED BY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTING TUESDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY WITH AREAS FURTHER NORTHEAST CLOSER TO
THE LOW STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP AT
NIGHT CLOSE TO 50 FOR MOST OF US WHILE HIGHS STRUGGLE INTO THE LOW
60`S, COOLER NW. NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE MODELS AND THERE
ENSEMBLES/ STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES. IN TERMS OF TIDES
ONCE A BETTER HANDLE OF THE LOW PRESSURE POSITION AND WIND
DIRECTION ARE ESTABLISHED CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE ON WHAT IF ANY
TIDAL ISSUES WILL BE PRESENT.


FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD. WENT
ON THE WARMER END OF THE MODEL SUITE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY CLOSER TO MEX GUIDANCE GIVEN REBOUNDING 925/850 MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS DROP OFF SOME BUT WE KEEP THE HIGHER
SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRATOCU DECK BEGINS TO THIN
AND SCATTER OUT LATE TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. MORE GUSTY NW WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS, WILL
COMMENCE BY LATE MORNING.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: VFR WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHIFTING
TO SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SOME HIGHER GUSTS EARLY IN THE EVENING.

TUESDAY...SOME RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY FROM 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT - SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS ALL OUR WATERS
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, AROUND 25 TO 30
KNOTS, WILL CONTINUE...AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WE COULD SEE CLOSE TO
GALE FORCE GUSTS WITH THE POTENTIAL WIND FUNNELING. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 4 TO 7 FEET ON THE OCEANFRONT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: EARLY IN THE EVENING SEAS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE
AROUND FIVE FEET WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THESE VALUES WILL BE DECREASING BELOW SCA THRESHOLD EARLY AND WILL
ALLOW THE SCA TO EXPIRE EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING: SEAS AND WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
BUT INCREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY: OVERALL THINKING IS THAT
WAVEWATCH IS UNDERDONE. SEAS WILL LIKELY OR OVER FIVE FEET THROUGH
MOST OF THIS PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER....
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH DRYING FINE FUELS AND
DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD ALLOW FOR AN ELEVATED FIRE
SPREAD RISK. STILL THINK THE HUMIDITIES WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR
IN TERMS OF REED FLAG THOUGH WE SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER-30S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
SITUATION AS NEW DATA STREAMS IN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     PAZ054-055.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     NJZ001.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/HEAVENER
FIRE WEATHER... HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 181348
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
948 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY. A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST PASSING CLOSE TO BLOCK ISLAND RHODE ISLAND
ON THURSDAY AND THE CAPE COD COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING THOUGH DID SCALE BACK
THE POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. REGIONAL RADAR IS SHOWING SOME
HIGHER BASED RETURNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BUT
IT IS DOUBTFUL THE SHOWERS ARE MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE
SURFACE AND IF THEY ARE NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE, LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH AND A PROGRESSIVE H5
SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE A SFC COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN PUSH OFFSHORE. INCREASING WRLY WINDS AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE BETTER CHC FOR CLOUDS
AND PCPN BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NRN/WRN AREAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YDAY AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH...UPPER 60S OVER
THE DEL VALLEY...AND LOWER 70S OVER SRN DEL. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE W OR NW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH TONIGHT. DRIER/COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA...AND SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS AND NRN NJ. POPS ARE IN THE SLGT CHC
RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COLDER WITH LOWS MOSTLY N THE 40S
OVER THE REGION...SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NW AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE 500MB INITIALIZATION IN THE MIDWEST PREFERRED THE DEEPER
WRF-NMMB OVER THE GFS. ALONG THE CANADIAN COAST HEIGHTS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE. THE WRF-NMMB HAS A
BETTER INITIALIZATION THAN THE FORMER. THERMALLY, THERE WERE 1C
ERRORS AT 850MB AND 925MB, BUT THEY WENT IN BOTH DIRECTIONS WITH
NO DISCERNIBLE TREND.

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK MILLER B TYPE SYSTEM WITH THE ONLY CONSISTENCY BEING THE
INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE DP/DT ON ALL OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WITH THIS SOUNDING RUN WAS A
FASTER PROGRESSION OR FARTHER OFFSHORE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT. DONT
LIKE THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECAUSE THERE IS LESS RIDGING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW IN BOTH DIRECTIONS AND THIS RUN CLOSES AND DIGS IT
FARTHER SOUTH. IT ALMOST LOOKS LIKE THE CONVECTION HAS TOO MUCH OF
AN INFLUENCE ON THE SURFACE/UPPER AIR SYSTEM. AT THE OTHER END OF
THE SPECTRUM, THE OP GFS BNDRY DEVELOPMENT IS SO OFFSHORE IT
IGNORES WHERE THE CLOSED LOW IS. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LOW POSN
LOOKS BETTER VS THE FORCING. THE CAN GGEM AND UKMET AT LEAST ARE
MORE CONSISTENT, HAVE TRENDED MORE OFFSHORE. WE STILL SEE THE NEXT
SOUNDING RUN AS THE ONE THAT BRINGS THE ENERGY INTO CANADA AS
HOPEFULLY A STABILIZING, CONSENSUS BUILDING FACTOR. THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE INFO ARRIVES TOO LATE TO BE UTILIZED. IT HAS BEEN
FAVORING A PROGRESSIVE OR FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAN THE OP RUNS.
IN AN EFFORT TO NOT WINDSHIELD WIPE THE FORECAST, WE HAVE
MAINTAINED A NEAR STATUS QUO IN THE LONG TERM. WHILE WE LIKE THE
IDEA OF A CLOSING LOW STALLING FARTHER TO THE EAST, THE IDEA THAT
THE CCB PCPN WILL JUST DO AN END RUN THAT BYPASSES OUR CWA IS NOT
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION.

THE LONG TERM STARTS SIMPLER ON SUNDAY WITH THE TROF EXITING OUR
CWA AND RIDGING RETURNING. ONE LAST VORT MAX HAS TO COME THRU
EARLY. IT WILL BE A BRISK FALL DAY WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS REACHING
AT LEAST 20 TO 25 MPH IN MOST PLACES. THE CONVECTIVE TEMP NORTH IS
STILL WITHIN REACH DURING THE MORNING, SO WE HEDGED MORE
CLOUDINESS THERE. NOT INCLUDED AT THIS MOMENT, BUT THERE MIGHT BE
A RESIDUAL SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IN THE POCONOS. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH, THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LESS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMP
OBTAINABILITY GOES SOONER, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. THE
KATABATIC FLOW IS QUITE GOOD, BUT MODELING THERMAL FIELDS INDICATE
THAT THE LOWER NAM MOS MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK MORE REASONABLE.

NO BIG CHANGE TO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL SHUT OFF QUICKLY AND
TEMPERATURES PLUNGE. THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE (CLOUDS) THAT MAY STOP THE FORMATION OF FROST OR HALT
THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES LATE. WHILE WE SIDED WITH THE LOWER STAT
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE INHERENT POTENTIAL, CONFIDENCE COULD BE
HIGHER. WE ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE GRIDS (MENTION IN THE HWO
ALSO CONTINUES).

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF OUR CWA AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH,
THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDINESS ON MONDAY. IN SPITE OF THE WAA,
HEIGHTS ARE STILL PREDICTED TO RISE AND THIS IN TURN RAISES THE
QUESTION ABOUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THUS, A DRY FORECAST IS
CONTINUED. REMAINED FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE WITH THE MAX TEMPS BECAUSE
OF MORE CLOUDS.

GFS AND WRF-NMMB ON SAME PAGE WITH BETTER OMEGA WRN HALF OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY. THE FORCING IS NOT BAD OVERALL AS MID LEVEL
QVEC CONVERGENCE, JET STREAK AND TROWAL PASS ACROSS OUR CWA.
MOISTURE MIGHT STILL BE A LIMITER. GIVEN THOSE FORCING MECHANISMS
WE DID GO WITH HIGHER POPS THAN STAT GUIDANCE. ON TUESDAY THE
INITIAL LOW AND FRONT ARE PREDICTED TO APPROACH. THE INSTABILITY
ALOFT BETWEEN 850MB AND 500MB IS NEARLY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. NO
SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS PREDICTED. BUT GIVEN THE NEAR INSTABILITY
ALOFT, WE CHANGED THE PTYPE TO CONVECTIVE AND KEPT CHC POPS.

THAT ENDS WHAT WE BELIEVE IS THE EASIER PART OF THE LONG TERM. THE
REMAINING PART IN AN EFFORT TO DO NO HARM OR SEVERE WHIPSAWING WE
MAINTAINED CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART. MILLER B(S) NORMALLY CAUSE
HEADACHES (IF THIS WAS JANUARY MORE TRIPS TO THE FIRST AID KIT WOULD
BE MADE) IN OUR CWA AS WE ARE OFTEN NEAR THE CUT OFF POINT FOR PCPN.
WE ARE BANKING ON A CLOSER TO THE COAST DEVELOPMENT TO KEEP PCPN
CHANCES IN FOR TUE NGT AND WED. THEN IT BECOMES UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
LONG WILL THE CCB CHANCES CONTINUE. THE GREATER CHANCES REMAIN EAST
WHERE POPS WERE KEPT HIGHEST. STAT GUIDANCE APPEARS STRANGELY HIGH
WITH TEMPS. BUT WATER TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 60S AND THE SURFACE
HIGH IS QUITE DISPLACED. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN CONTINUITY AND
LATEST WPC/STAT GUIDANCE. THIS NUDGE UP MADE US REMOVE THE BRIEF
MENTION OF SNOW IN THE POCONOS.

EVEN THE LATEST ECMWF WOULD NOT CAUSE ANY QPF RELATED ISSUES. BUT
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON, WE WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON TIDAL DEPARTURES.

WE KEPT FRIDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY AND UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY. THERE WILL BE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES...BUT MOST OF THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS
KRDG/KABE WHERE WE HAVE CIGS (VFR) MUCH OF THE DAY. FURTHER S/E...A
MORE VARIABLE SKY COVER WITH MOSTLY SCT AND OCNL BKN CLOUDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NO PCPN IS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS...A FEW SHOWERS FAR
N/W ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER. WINDS WILL BECOME SW EARLY AND THE
INCREASE FROM THE W WITH G20-25 BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL TREND
MORE NW BY DUSK. TONIGHT...VFR WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS S. GENTLE
WEST/NW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, MAINLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EASTERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. SOME GUSTY
NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
IT APPEARS THE ENOUGH CAA AND MIXING WILL OCCUR BY THEN FOR SOME
G25 SO THE BOTH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UNTOUCHED. ON THE
OCEAN...5 TO 6 FT SWELLS ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED...AND THE
ADDED WINDS LATER THIS MORNING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CHOPPY SEAS. SCA
FLAGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PREDICTED
THROUGHOUT THE AREA WATERS SUNDAY DAY. THEY SHOULD LINGER ON THE
OCEAN INTO SUNDAY EVENING AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH WINDS AND WAVES WILL RESPOND TO THE DEVELOPING
SECONDARY LOW. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI/MEOLA
AVIATION...GIGI/MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/MEOLA/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 181348
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
948 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY. A SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST PASSING CLOSE TO BLOCK ISLAND RHODE ISLAND
ON THURSDAY AND THE CAPE COD COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING THOUGH DID SCALE BACK
THE POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. REGIONAL RADAR IS SHOWING SOME
HIGHER BASED RETURNS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA BUT
IT IS DOUBTFUL THE SHOWERS ARE MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO THE
SURFACE AND IF THEY ARE NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE, LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH AND A PROGRESSIVE H5
SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE A SFC COLD FRONT TO
CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN PUSH OFFSHORE. INCREASING WRLY WINDS AND
DRIER AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE BETTER CHC FOR CLOUDS
AND PCPN BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NRN/WRN AREAS. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YDAY AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH...UPPER 60S OVER
THE DEL VALLEY...AND LOWER 70S OVER SRN DEL. WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE W OR NW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH TONIGHT. DRIER/COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA...AND SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS AND NRN NJ. POPS ARE IN THE SLGT CHC
RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COLDER WITH LOWS MOSTLY N THE 40S
OVER THE REGION...SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NW AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE 500MB INITIALIZATION IN THE MIDWEST PREFERRED THE DEEPER
WRF-NMMB OVER THE GFS. ALONG THE CANADIAN COAST HEIGHTS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE. THE WRF-NMMB HAS A
BETTER INITIALIZATION THAN THE FORMER. THERMALLY, THERE WERE 1C
ERRORS AT 850MB AND 925MB, BUT THEY WENT IN BOTH DIRECTIONS WITH
NO DISCERNIBLE TREND.

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK MILLER B TYPE SYSTEM WITH THE ONLY CONSISTENCY BEING THE
INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE DP/DT ON ALL OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WITH THIS SOUNDING RUN WAS A
FASTER PROGRESSION OR FARTHER OFFSHORE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT. DONT
LIKE THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECAUSE THERE IS LESS RIDGING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW IN BOTH DIRECTIONS AND THIS RUN CLOSES AND DIGS IT
FARTHER SOUTH. IT ALMOST LOOKS LIKE THE CONVECTION HAS TOO MUCH OF
AN INFLUENCE ON THE SURFACE/UPPER AIR SYSTEM. AT THE OTHER END OF
THE SPECTRUM, THE OP GFS BNDRY DEVELOPMENT IS SO OFFSHORE IT
IGNORES WHERE THE CLOSED LOW IS. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LOW POSN
LOOKS BETTER VS THE FORCING. THE CAN GGEM AND UKMET AT LEAST ARE
MORE CONSISTENT, HAVE TRENDED MORE OFFSHORE. WE STILL SEE THE NEXT
SOUNDING RUN AS THE ONE THAT BRINGS THE ENERGY INTO CANADA AS
HOPEFULLY A STABILIZING, CONSENSUS BUILDING FACTOR. THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE INFO ARRIVES TOO LATE TO BE UTILIZED. IT HAS BEEN
FAVORING A PROGRESSIVE OR FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAN THE OP RUNS.
IN AN EFFORT TO NOT WINDSHIELD WIPE THE FORECAST, WE HAVE
MAINTAINED A NEAR STATUS QUO IN THE LONG TERM. WHILE WE LIKE THE
IDEA OF A CLOSING LOW STALLING FARTHER TO THE EAST, THE IDEA THAT
THE CCB PCPN WILL JUST DO AN END RUN THAT BYPASSES OUR CWA IS NOT
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION.

THE LONG TERM STARTS SIMPLER ON SUNDAY WITH THE TROF EXITING OUR
CWA AND RIDGING RETURNING. ONE LAST VORT MAX HAS TO COME THRU
EARLY. IT WILL BE A BRISK FALL DAY WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS REACHING
AT LEAST 20 TO 25 MPH IN MOST PLACES. THE CONVECTIVE TEMP NORTH IS
STILL WITHIN REACH DURING THE MORNING, SO WE HEDGED MORE
CLOUDINESS THERE. NOT INCLUDED AT THIS MOMENT, BUT THERE MIGHT BE
A RESIDUAL SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IN THE POCONOS. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH, THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LESS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMP
OBTAINABILITY GOES SOONER, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. THE
KATABATIC FLOW IS QUITE GOOD, BUT MODELING THERMAL FIELDS INDICATE
THAT THE LOWER NAM MOS MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK MORE REASONABLE.

NO BIG CHANGE TO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL SHUT OFF QUICKLY AND
TEMPERATURES PLUNGE. THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE (CLOUDS) THAT MAY STOP THE FORMATION OF FROST OR HALT
THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES LATE. WHILE WE SIDED WITH THE LOWER STAT
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE INHERENT POTENTIAL, CONFIDENCE COULD BE
HIGHER. WE ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE GRIDS (MENTION IN THE HWO
ALSO CONTINUES).

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF OUR CWA AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH,
THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDINESS ON MONDAY. IN SPITE OF THE WAA,
HEIGHTS ARE STILL PREDICTED TO RISE AND THIS IN TURN RAISES THE
QUESTION ABOUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THUS, A DRY FORECAST IS
CONTINUED. REMAINED FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE WITH THE MAX TEMPS BECAUSE
OF MORE CLOUDS.

GFS AND WRF-NMMB ON SAME PAGE WITH BETTER OMEGA WRN HALF OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY. THE FORCING IS NOT BAD OVERALL AS MID LEVEL
QVEC CONVERGENCE, JET STREAK AND TROWAL PASS ACROSS OUR CWA.
MOISTURE MIGHT STILL BE A LIMITER. GIVEN THOSE FORCING MECHANISMS
WE DID GO WITH HIGHER POPS THAN STAT GUIDANCE. ON TUESDAY THE
INITIAL LOW AND FRONT ARE PREDICTED TO APPROACH. THE INSTABILITY
ALOFT BETWEEN 850MB AND 500MB IS NEARLY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. NO
SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS PREDICTED. BUT GIVEN THE NEAR INSTABILITY
ALOFT, WE CHANGED THE PTYPE TO CONVECTIVE AND KEPT CHC POPS.

THAT ENDS WHAT WE BELIEVE IS THE EASIER PART OF THE LONG TERM. THE
REMAINING PART IN AN EFFORT TO DO NO HARM OR SEVERE WHIPSAWING WE
MAINTAINED CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART. MILLER B(S) NORMALLY CAUSE
HEADACHES (IF THIS WAS JANUARY MORE TRIPS TO THE FIRST AID KIT WOULD
BE MADE) IN OUR CWA AS WE ARE OFTEN NEAR THE CUT OFF POINT FOR PCPN.
WE ARE BANKING ON A CLOSER TO THE COAST DEVELOPMENT TO KEEP PCPN
CHANCES IN FOR TUE NGT AND WED. THEN IT BECOMES UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
LONG WILL THE CCB CHANCES CONTINUE. THE GREATER CHANCES REMAIN EAST
WHERE POPS WERE KEPT HIGHEST. STAT GUIDANCE APPEARS STRANGELY HIGH
WITH TEMPS. BUT WATER TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 60S AND THE SURFACE
HIGH IS QUITE DISPLACED. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN CONTINUITY AND
LATEST WPC/STAT GUIDANCE. THIS NUDGE UP MADE US REMOVE THE BRIEF
MENTION OF SNOW IN THE POCONOS.

EVEN THE LATEST ECMWF WOULD NOT CAUSE ANY QPF RELATED ISSUES. BUT
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON, WE WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON TIDAL DEPARTURES.

WE KEPT FRIDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY AND UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY. THERE WILL BE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES...BUT MOST OF THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS
KRDG/KABE WHERE WE HAVE CIGS (VFR) MUCH OF THE DAY. FURTHER S/E...A
MORE VARIABLE SKY COVER WITH MOSTLY SCT AND OCNL BKN CLOUDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NO PCPN IS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS...A FEW SHOWERS FAR
N/W ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER. WINDS WILL BECOME SW EARLY AND THE
INCREASE FROM THE W WITH G20-25 BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL TREND
MORE NW BY DUSK. TONIGHT...VFR WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS S. GENTLE
WEST/NW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, MAINLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EASTERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. SOME GUSTY
NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
IT APPEARS THE ENOUGH CAA AND MIXING WILL OCCUR BY THEN FOR SOME
G25 SO THE BOTH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UNTOUCHED. ON THE
OCEAN...5 TO 6 FT SWELLS ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED...AND THE
ADDED WINDS LATER THIS MORNING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CHOPPY SEAS. SCA
FLAGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PREDICTED
THROUGHOUT THE AREA WATERS SUNDAY DAY. THEY SHOULD LINGER ON THE
OCEAN INTO SUNDAY EVENING AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH WINDS AND WAVES WILL RESPOND TO THE DEVELOPING
SECONDARY LOW. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI/MEOLA
AVIATION...GIGI/MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/MEOLA/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 180830
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST PASSING CLOSE TO BLOCK ISLAND RHODE ISLAND ON THURSDAY
AND THE CAPE COD COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH AND A PROGRESSIVE H5 SHORT WAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE A SFC COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA
EARLY TODAY. INCREASING WRLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE BETTER CHC FOR CLOUDS AND PCPN BEING FOUND ACROSS
THE NRN/WRN AREAS. WE HAVE KEPT THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR THOSE
AREAS...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FCSTS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YDAY AS
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 60S
NORTH...UPPER 60S OVER THE DEL VALLEY...AND LOWER 70S OVER SRN DEL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SW EARLY...THEN BECOME GUSTY FROM THE W OR NW
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH TONIGHT. DRIER/COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA...AND SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS AND NRN NJ. POPS ARE IN THE SLGT CHC
RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COLDER WITH LOWS MOSTLY N THE 40S
OVER THE REGION...SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NW AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE 500MB INITIALIZATION IN THE MIDWEST PREFERRED THE DEEPER
WRF-NMMB OVER THE GFS. ALONG THE CANADIAN COAST HEIGHTS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE. THE WRF-NMMB HAS A
BETTER INITIALIZATION THAN THE FORMER. THERMALLY, THERE WERE 1C
ERRORS AT 850MB AND 925MB, BUT THEY WENT IN BOTH DIRECTIONS WITH
NO DISCERNIBLE TREND.

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK MILLER B TYPE SYSTEM WITH THE ONLY CONSISTENCY BEING THE
INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE DP/DT ON ALL OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WITH THIS SOUNDING RUN WAS A
FASTER PROGRESSION OR FARTHER OFFSHORE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT. DONT
LIKE THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECAUSE THERE IS LESS RIDGING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW IN BOTH DIRECTIONS AND THIS RUN CLOSES AND DIGS IT
FARTHER SOUTH. IT ALMOST LOOKS LIKE THE CONVECTION HAS TOO MUCH OF
AN INFLUENCE ON THE SURFACE/UPPER AIR SYSTEM. AT THE OTHER END OF
THE SPECTRUM, THE OP GFS 2NDRY DEVELOPMENT IS SO OFFSHORE IT
IGNORES WHERE THE CLOSED LOW IS. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LOW POSN
LOOKS BETTER VS THE FORCING. THE CAN GGEM AND UKMET AT LEAST ARE
MORE CONSISTENT, HAVE TRENDED MORE OFFSHORE. WE STILL SEE THE
NEXT SOUNDING RUN AS THE ONE THAT BRINGS THE ENERGY INTO CANADA AS
HOPEFULLY A STABILIZING, CONSENSUS BUILDING FACTOR. THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE INFO ARRIVES TOO LATE TO BE UTILIZED. IT HAS BEEN
FAVORING A PROGRESSIVE OR FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAN THE OP
RUNS. IN AN EFFORT TO NOT WINDSHIELD WIPE THE FORECAST, WE HAVE
MAINTAINED A NEAR STATUS QUO IN THE LONG TERM. WHILE WE LIKE THE
IDEA OF A CLOSING LOW STALLING FARTHER TO THE EAST, THE IDEA THAT
THE CCB PCPN WILL JUST DO AN END RUN THAT BYPASSES OUR CWA IS NOT
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION.

THE LONG TERM STARTS SIMPLER ON SUNDAY WITH THE TROF EXITING OUR
CWA AND RIDGING RETURNING. ONE LAST VORT MAX HAS TO COME THRU
EARLY. IT WILL BE A BRISK FALL DAY WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS REACHING
AT LEAST 20 TO 25 MPH IN MOST PLACES. THE CONVECTIVE TEMP NORTH IS
STILL WITHIN REACH DURING THE MORNING, SO WE HEDGED MORE
CLOUDINESS THERE. NOT INCLUDED AT THIS MOMENT, BUT THERE MIGHT BE
A RESIDUAL SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IN THE POCONOS. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH, THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LESS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMP
OBTAINABILITY GOES SOONER, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. THE
KATABATIC FLOW IS QUITE GOOD, BUT MODELING THERMAL FIELDS INDICATE
THAT THE LOWER NAM MOS MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK MORE REASONABLE.

NO BIG CHANGE TO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL SHUT OFF QUICKLY AND
TEMPERATURES PLUNGE. THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE (CLOUDS) THAT MAY STOP THE FORMATION OF FROST OR HALT
THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES LATE. WHILE WE SIDED WITH THE LOWER STAT
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE INHERENT POTENTIAL, CONFIDENCE COULD BE
HIGHER. WE ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE GRIDS (MENTION IN THE HWO
ALSO CONTINUES).

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF OUR CWA AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH,
THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDINESS ON MONDAY. IN SPITE OF THE WAA,
HEIGHTS ARE STILL PREDICTED TO RISE AND THIS IN TURN RAISES THE
QUESTION ABOUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THUS, A DRY FORECAST IS
CONTINUED. REMAINED FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE WITH THE MAX TEMPS BECAUSE
OF MORE CLOUDS.

GFS AND WRF-NMMB ON SAME PAGE WITH BETTER OMEGA WRN HALF OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY. THE FORCING IS NOT BAD OVERALL AS MID LEVEL
QVEC CONVERGENCE, JET STREAK AND TROWAL PASS ACROSS OUR CWA.
MOISTURE MIGHT STILL BE A LIMITER. GIVEN THOSE FORCING MECHANISMS
WE DID GO WITH HIGHER POPS THAN STAT GUIDANCE. ON TUESDAY THE
INITIAL LOW AND FRONT ARE PREDICTED TO APPROACH. THE INSTABILITY
ALOFT BETWEEN 850MB AND 500MB IS NEARLY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. NO
SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS PREDICTED. BUT GIVEN THE NEAR INSTABILITY
ALOFT, WE CHANGED THE PTYPE TO CONVECTIVE AND KEPT CHC POPS.

THAT ENDS WHAT WE BELIEVE IS THE EASIER PART OF THE LONG TERM. THE
REMAINING PART IN AN EFFORT TO DO NO HARM OR SEVERE WHIPSAWING WE
MAINTAINED CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART. MILLER B(S) NORMALLY CAUSE
HEADACHES (IF THIS WAS JANUARY MORE TRIPS TO THE FIRST AID KIT WOULD
BE MADE) IN OUR CWA AS WE ARE OFTEN NEAR THE CUT OFF POINT FOR PCPN.
WE ARE BANKING ON A CLOSER TO THE COAST DEVELOPMENT TO KEEP PCPN
CHANCES IN FOR TUE NGT AND WED. THEN IT BECOMES UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
LONG WILL THE CCB CHANCES CONTINUE. THE GREATER CHANCES REMAIN EAST
WHERE POPS WERE KEPT HIGHEST. STAT GUIDANCE APPEARS STRANGELY HIGH
WITH TEMPS. BUT WATER TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 60S AND THE SURFACE
HIGH IS QUITE DISPLACED. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN CONTINUITY AND
LATEST WPC/STAT GUIDANCE. THIS NUDGE UP MADE US REMOVE THE BRIEF
MENTION OF SNOW IN THE POCONOS.

EVEN THE LATEST ECMWF WOULD NOT CAUSE ANY QPF RELATED ISSUES. BUT
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON, WE WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON TIDAL DEPARTURES.

WE KEPT FRIDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY AND UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY. THERE WILL BE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES...BUT MOST OF THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS
KRDG/KABE WHERE WE HAVE CIGS (VFR) MUCH OF THE DAY. FURTHER S/E...A
MORE VARIABLE SKY COVER WITH MOSTLY SCT AND OCNL BKN CLOUDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NO PCPN IS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS...A FEW SHOWERS FAR
N/W ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER. WINDS WILL BECOME SW EARLY AND THE
INCREASE FROM THE W WITH G20-25 BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL TREND
MORE NW BY DUSK. TONIGHT...VFR WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS S. GENTLE
WEST/NW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, MAINLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EASTERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. SOME GUSTY
NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL ONLY MAKE ONE CHANGE TO THE PRESENT SCA FLAGS WITH THE
EARLY SAT MORNING CWF. WE WILL MAKE THE START TIME OF THE SCA FLAG
ON DEL BAY AT 1100 AM INSTEAD OF THE PRESENT 200 PM. IT APPEARS
THE ENOUGH CAA AND MIXING WILL OCCUR BY THEN FOR SOME G25. ON THE
OCEAN...5 TO 6 FT SWELLS ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED...AND THE
ADDED WINDS LATER THIS MORNING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CHOPPY SEAS. SCA
FLAGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PREDICTED
THROUGHOUT THE AREA WATERS SUNDAY DAY. THEY SHOULD LINGER ON THE
OCEAN INTO SUNDAY EVENING AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH WINDS AND WAVES WILL RESPOND TO THE DEVELOPING
SECONDARY LOW. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI/MEOLA
AVIATION...GIGI/MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/MEOLA/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 180830
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA AROUND TUESDAY. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHEAST PASSING CLOSE TO BLOCK ISLAND RHODE ISLAND ON THURSDAY
AND THE CAPE COD COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH AND A PROGRESSIVE H5 SHORT WAVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE A SFC COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE AREA
EARLY TODAY. INCREASING WRLY WINDS AND DRIER AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE BETTER CHC FOR CLOUDS AND PCPN BEING FOUND ACROSS
THE NRN/WRN AREAS. WE HAVE KEPT THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR THOSE
AREAS...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND PREVIOUS
FCSTS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YDAY AS
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 60S
NORTH...UPPER 60S OVER THE DEL VALLEY...AND LOWER 70S OVER SRN DEL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SW EARLY...THEN BECOME GUSTY FROM THE W OR NW
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH TONIGHT. DRIER/COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA...AND SLGT CHCS FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS AND NRN NJ. POPS ARE IN THE SLGT CHC
RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COLDER WITH LOWS MOSTLY N THE 40S
OVER THE REGION...SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NW AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE 500MB INITIALIZATION IN THE MIDWEST PREFERRED THE DEEPER
WRF-NMMB OVER THE GFS. ALONG THE CANADIAN COAST HEIGHTS ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE. THE WRF-NMMB HAS A
BETTER INITIALIZATION THAN THE FORMER. THERMALLY, THERE WERE 1C
ERRORS AT 850MB AND 925MB, BUT THEY WENT IN BOTH DIRECTIONS WITH
NO DISCERNIBLE TREND.

THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A MIDDLE OF THE WORK
WEEK MILLER B TYPE SYSTEM WITH THE ONLY CONSISTENCY BEING THE
INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE DP/DT ON ALL OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WITH THIS SOUNDING RUN WAS A
FASTER PROGRESSION OR FARTHER OFFSHORE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT. DONT
LIKE THE ECMWF SOLUTION BECAUSE THERE IS LESS RIDGING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW IN BOTH DIRECTIONS AND THIS RUN CLOSES AND DIGS IT
FARTHER SOUTH. IT ALMOST LOOKS LIKE THE CONVECTION HAS TOO MUCH OF
AN INFLUENCE ON THE SURFACE/UPPER AIR SYSTEM. AT THE OTHER END OF
THE SPECTRUM, THE OP GFS 2NDRY DEVELOPMENT IS SO OFFSHORE IT
IGNORES WHERE THE CLOSED LOW IS. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LOW POSN
LOOKS BETTER VS THE FORCING. THE CAN GGEM AND UKMET AT LEAST ARE
MORE CONSISTENT, HAVE TRENDED MORE OFFSHORE. WE STILL SEE THE
NEXT SOUNDING RUN AS THE ONE THAT BRINGS THE ENERGY INTO CANADA AS
HOPEFULLY A STABILIZING, CONSENSUS BUILDING FACTOR. THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE INFO ARRIVES TOO LATE TO BE UTILIZED. IT HAS BEEN
FAVORING A PROGRESSIVE OR FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION THAN THE OP
RUNS. IN AN EFFORT TO NOT WINDSHIELD WIPE THE FORECAST, WE HAVE
MAINTAINED A NEAR STATUS QUO IN THE LONG TERM. WHILE WE LIKE THE
IDEA OF A CLOSING LOW STALLING FARTHER TO THE EAST, THE IDEA THAT
THE CCB PCPN WILL JUST DO AN END RUN THAT BYPASSES OUR CWA IS NOT
THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION.

THE LONG TERM STARTS SIMPLER ON SUNDAY WITH THE TROF EXITING OUR
CWA AND RIDGING RETURNING. ONE LAST VORT MAX HAS TO COME THRU
EARLY. IT WILL BE A BRISK FALL DAY WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS REACHING
AT LEAST 20 TO 25 MPH IN MOST PLACES. THE CONVECTIVE TEMP NORTH IS
STILL WITHIN REACH DURING THE MORNING, SO WE HEDGED MORE
CLOUDINESS THERE. NOT INCLUDED AT THIS MOMENT, BUT THERE MIGHT BE
A RESIDUAL SPRINKLE OR FLURRY IN THE POCONOS. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH, THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS LESS AND THE CONVECTIVE TEMP
OBTAINABILITY GOES SOONER, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED. THE
KATABATIC FLOW IS QUITE GOOD, BUT MODELING THERMAL FIELDS INDICATE
THAT THE LOWER NAM MOS MAX TEMPS STILL LOOK MORE REASONABLE.

NO BIG CHANGE TO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS WILL SHUT OFF QUICKLY AND
TEMPERATURES PLUNGE. THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE (CLOUDS) THAT MAY STOP THE FORMATION OF FROST OR HALT
THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES LATE. WHILE WE SIDED WITH THE LOWER STAT
GUIDANCE BECAUSE OF THE INHERENT POTENTIAL, CONFIDENCE COULD BE
HIGHER. WE ADDED PATCHY FROST TO THE GRIDS (MENTION IN THE HWO
ALSO CONTINUES).

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EAST OF OUR CWA AND SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH,
THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDINESS ON MONDAY. IN SPITE OF THE WAA,
HEIGHTS ARE STILL PREDICTED TO RISE AND THIS IN TURN RAISES THE
QUESTION ABOUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THUS, A DRY FORECAST IS
CONTINUED. REMAINED FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE WITH THE MAX TEMPS BECAUSE
OF MORE CLOUDS.

GFS AND WRF-NMMB ON SAME PAGE WITH BETTER OMEGA WRN HALF OF OUR CWA
OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY. THE FORCING IS NOT BAD OVERALL AS MID LEVEL
QVEC CONVERGENCE, JET STREAK AND TROWAL PASS ACROSS OUR CWA.
MOISTURE MIGHT STILL BE A LIMITER. GIVEN THOSE FORCING MECHANISMS
WE DID GO WITH HIGHER POPS THAN STAT GUIDANCE. ON TUESDAY THE
INITIAL LOW AND FRONT ARE PREDICTED TO APPROACH. THE INSTABILITY
ALOFT BETWEEN 850MB AND 500MB IS NEARLY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDER. NO
SFC BASED INSTABILITY IS PREDICTED. BUT GIVEN THE NEAR INSTABILITY
ALOFT, WE CHANGED THE PTYPE TO CONVECTIVE AND KEPT CHC POPS.

THAT ENDS WHAT WE BELIEVE IS THE EASIER PART OF THE LONG TERM. THE
REMAINING PART IN AN EFFORT TO DO NO HARM OR SEVERE WHIPSAWING WE
MAINTAINED CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART. MILLER B(S) NORMALLY CAUSE
HEADACHES (IF THIS WAS JANUARY MORE TRIPS TO THE FIRST AID KIT WOULD
BE MADE) IN OUR CWA AS WE ARE OFTEN NEAR THE CUT OFF POINT FOR PCPN.
WE ARE BANKING ON A CLOSER TO THE COAST DEVELOPMENT TO KEEP PCPN
CHANCES IN FOR TUE NGT AND WED. THEN IT BECOMES UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
LONG WILL THE CCB CHANCES CONTINUE. THE GREATER CHANCES REMAIN EAST
WHERE POPS WERE KEPT HIGHEST. STAT GUIDANCE APPEARS STRANGELY HIGH
WITH TEMPS. BUT WATER TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 60S AND THE SURFACE
HIGH IS QUITE DISPLACED. WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN CONTINUITY AND
LATEST WPC/STAT GUIDANCE. THIS NUDGE UP MADE US REMOVE THE BRIEF
MENTION OF SNOW IN THE POCONOS.

EVEN THE LATEST ECMWF WOULD NOT CAUSE ANY QPF RELATED ISSUES. BUT
WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON, WE WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON TIDAL DEPARTURES.

WE KEPT FRIDAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY AND UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY. THERE WILL BE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES...BUT MOST OF THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS WILL BE ACROSS
KRDG/KABE WHERE WE HAVE CIGS (VFR) MUCH OF THE DAY. FURTHER S/E...A
MORE VARIABLE SKY COVER WITH MOSTLY SCT AND OCNL BKN CLOUDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. NO PCPN IS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS...A FEW SHOWERS FAR
N/W ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER. WINDS WILL BECOME SW EARLY AND THE
INCREASE FROM THE W WITH G20-25 BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL TREND
MORE NW BY DUSK. TONIGHT...VFR WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS S. GENTLE
WEST/NW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, MAINLY DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EASTERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS. SOME GUSTY
NORTH WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL ONLY MAKE ONE CHANGE TO THE PRESENT SCA FLAGS WITH THE
EARLY SAT MORNING CWF. WE WILL MAKE THE START TIME OF THE SCA FLAG
ON DEL BAY AT 1100 AM INSTEAD OF THE PRESENT 200 PM. IT APPEARS
THE ENOUGH CAA AND MIXING WILL OCCUR BY THEN FOR SOME G25. ON THE
OCEAN...5 TO 6 FT SWELLS ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED...AND THE
ADDED WINDS LATER THIS MORNING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CHOPPY SEAS. SCA
FLAGS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PREDICTED
THROUGHOUT THE AREA WATERS SUNDAY DAY. THEY SHOULD LINGER ON THE
OCEAN INTO SUNDAY EVENING AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH WINDS AND WAVES WILL RESPOND TO THE DEVELOPING
SECONDARY LOW. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI/MEOLA
AVIATION...GIGI/MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/MEOLA/O`HARA







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