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000
FXUS61 KPHI 021627
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1227 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. THIS STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. ONLY A FEW HOURLY GRID
CHANGES AND IN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS SOME CUMULUS BUILD UP
HAS BEGUN TO OCCUR AND SOME CIRRUS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTH. OTHERWISE, WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TODAY.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A CAP RIGHT AROUND 700MB THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP US DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING ON THE DRIER SIDE AS PWATS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CLOSE TO IF NOT LOW-90S
KIND OF DAY. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER
SEABREEZE INLAND PENETRATION AND POSSIBLY BAY/RIVER BREEZE CLOSE
TO ILG/PHL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING
TO PASS OVERHEAD AND OUT TO SEA LATE TONIGHT. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION COMMENCES WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
PLACE...DEWPOINTS REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE NORTH OF DELMARVA LATE
TONIGHT. COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF GROUND FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND DELMARVA LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES DIP BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID-60S WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE ACTIVE, UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST, AROUND THE GREAT LAKES, DURING MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO GRADUALLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT STILL
REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, IT DOES APPEAR THAT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THERE IS ADEQUATE MODELED
CAPE AND SHEAR. INTO TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE
PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA, EVENTUALLY STALLING OFFSHORE.
WHILE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY POP-UP SHWRS/TSTORMS LOOKS TO BE LOW,
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
ANOTHER POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT PERHAPS MOVING OVER THE REGION
LATER IN THE DAY.

THIS OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND ALSO INTO THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE, AND WHILE A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS
NOT LIKELY IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AND ALSO
POSSIBLY FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED SOME
HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE WITH THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS EXTENDED RANGE, WE MOSTLY USED A
BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY FOR TEMPERATURES, POPS, AND
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO START THE TODAY BEFORE THEY
PICK MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. SHOULD SEE SEABREEZE AND BAY
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AFFECT ACY AND ILG FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BACK MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING
BUT DECREASE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...POSSIBLE PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG EARLY, MAINLY AT THE
MORE RURAL TERMINALS. THEN PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY,
BUT A LOWERING TO MVFR WITH CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS FROM LATE-DAY INTO THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING SHWRS AND TSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 3
FEET AS WINDS SLACKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN PRIMARILY OFFSHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR EVEN MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS TO SET IN.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA. SOME WIND
GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 25 KNOTS PLUS WITH SEAS INCREASING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, A
STALLED FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT COULD
ENHANCE SEAS AND/OR WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 021627
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1227 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. THIS STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. ONLY A FEW HOURLY GRID
CHANGES AND IN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS SOME CUMULUS BUILD UP
HAS BEGUN TO OCCUR AND SOME CIRRUS MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTH. OTHERWISE, WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A DRY FORECAST TODAY.

THERE LOOKS TO BE A CAP RIGHT AROUND 700MB THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP US DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING ON THE DRIER SIDE AS PWATS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL.
AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CLOSE TO IF NOT LOW-90S
KIND OF DAY. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER
SEABREEZE INLAND PENETRATION AND POSSIBLY BAY/RIVER BREEZE CLOSE
TO ILG/PHL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING
TO PASS OVERHEAD AND OUT TO SEA LATE TONIGHT. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION COMMENCES WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
PLACE...DEWPOINTS REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE NORTH OF DELMARVA LATE
TONIGHT. COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF GROUND FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND DELMARVA LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES DIP BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID-60S WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE ACTIVE, UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST, AROUND THE GREAT LAKES, DURING MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO GRADUALLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT STILL
REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, IT DOES APPEAR THAT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THERE IS ADEQUATE MODELED
CAPE AND SHEAR. INTO TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE
PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA, EVENTUALLY STALLING OFFSHORE.
WHILE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY POP-UP SHWRS/TSTORMS LOOKS TO BE LOW,
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
ANOTHER POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT PERHAPS MOVING OVER THE REGION
LATER IN THE DAY.

THIS OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND ALSO INTO THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE, AND WHILE A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS
NOT LIKELY IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AND ALSO
POSSIBLY FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED SOME
HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE WITH THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS EXTENDED RANGE, WE MOSTLY USED A
BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY FOR TEMPERATURES, POPS, AND
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO START THE TODAY BEFORE THEY
PICK MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. SHOULD SEE SEABREEZE AND BAY
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AFFECT ACY AND ILG FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BACK MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING
BUT DECREASE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...POSSIBLE PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG EARLY, MAINLY AT THE
MORE RURAL TERMINALS. THEN PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY,
BUT A LOWERING TO MVFR WITH CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS FROM LATE-DAY INTO THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING SHWRS AND TSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 3
FEET AS WINDS SLACKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN PRIMARILY OFFSHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR EVEN MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS TO SET IN.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA. SOME WIND
GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 25 KNOTS PLUS WITH SEAS INCREASING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, A
STALLED FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT COULD
ENHANCE SEAS AND/OR WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 020749
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. THIS STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BASE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK
RIDGING/ZONALISH FLOW FILLING IN BEHIND. THERE LOOKS TO BE A CAP
RIGHT AROUND 700MB THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP US DRY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING ON THE DRIER SIDE AS
PWATS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. AMPLE SUNSHINE WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES JUST OUT OF REACH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CLOSE TO IF
NOT LOW-90S KIND OF DAY. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BETTER SEABREEZE INLAND PENETRATION AND POSSIBLY BAY/RIVER BREEZE
CLOSE TO ILG/PHL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING
TO PASS OVERHEAD AND OUT TO SEA LATE TONIGHT. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION COMMENCES WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
PLACE...DEWPOINTS REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE NORTH OF DELMARVA LATE
TONIGHT. COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF GROUND FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND DELMARVA LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES DIP BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID-60S WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE ACTIVE, UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST, AROUND THE GREAT LAKES, DURING MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO GRADUALLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT STILL
REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, IT DOES APPEAR THAT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THERE IS ADEQUATE MODELED
CAPE AND SHEAR. INTO TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE
PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA, EVENTUALLY STALLING OFFSHORE.
WHILE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY POP-UP SHWRS/TSTORMS LOOKS TO BE LOW,
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
ANOTHER POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT PERHAPS MOVING OVER THE REGION
LATER IN THE DAY.

THIS OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND ALSO INTO THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE, AND WHILE A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS
NOT LIKELY IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AND ALSO
POSSIBLY FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED SOME
HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE WITH THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS EXTENDED RANGE, WE MOSTLY USED A
BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY FOR TEMPERATURES, POPS, AND
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO START THE TODAY BEFORE THEY
PICK MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. SHOULD SEE SEABREEZE AND BAY
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AFFECT ACY AND ILG FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BACK MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING
BUT DECREASE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...POSSIBLE PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG EARLY, MAINLY AT THE
MORE RURAL TERMINALS. THEN PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY,
BUT A LOWERING TO MVFR WITH CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS FROM LATE-DAY INTO THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING SHWRS AND TSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 3
FEET AS WINDS SLACKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN PRIMARILY OFFSHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR EVEN MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS TO SET IN.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA. SOME WIND
GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 25 KNOTS PLUS WITH SEAS INCREASING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, A
STALLED FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT COULD
ENHANCE SEAS AND/OR WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 020749
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC REGION
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE
GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. THIS STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE
ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BASE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK
RIDGING/ZONALISH FLOW FILLING IN BEHIND. THERE LOOKS TO BE A CAP
RIGHT AROUND 700MB THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP US DRY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING ON THE DRIER SIDE AS
PWATS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. AMPLE SUNSHINE WITH CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES JUST OUT OF REACH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER CLOSE TO IF
NOT LOW-90S KIND OF DAY. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BETTER SEABREEZE INLAND PENETRATION AND POSSIBLY BAY/RIVER BREEZE
CLOSE TO ILG/PHL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING
TO PASS OVERHEAD AND OUT TO SEA LATE TONIGHT. WEAK LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION COMMENCES WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS IN
PLACE...DEWPOINTS REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE NORTH OF DELMARVA LATE
TONIGHT. COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF GROUND FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND DELMARVA LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES DIP BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID-60S WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MORE ACTIVE, UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST, AROUND THE GREAT LAKES, DURING MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO GRADUALLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY. WHILE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT STILL
REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, IT DOES APPEAR THAT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AS THERE IS ADEQUATE MODELED
CAPE AND SHEAR. INTO TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE
PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA, EVENTUALLY STALLING OFFSHORE.
WHILE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY POP-UP SHWRS/TSTORMS LOOKS TO BE LOW,
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
ANOTHER POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT PERHAPS MOVING OVER THE REGION
LATER IN THE DAY.

THIS OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND ALSO INTO THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH THE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE, AND WHILE A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS
NOT LIKELY IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AND ALSO
POSSIBLY FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED SOME
HIGHER CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE WITH THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS EXTENDED RANGE, WE MOSTLY USED A
BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY FOR TEMPERATURES, POPS, AND
WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO START THE TODAY BEFORE THEY
PICK MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. SHOULD SEE SEABREEZE AND BAY
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AFFECT ACY AND ILG FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BACK MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING
BUT DECREASE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...POSSIBLE PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG EARLY, MAINLY AT THE
MORE RURAL TERMINALS. THEN PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY,
BUT A LOWERING TO MVFR WITH CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS FROM LATE-DAY INTO THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING SHWRS AND TSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN AROUND 3
FEET AS WINDS SLACKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN PRIMARILY OFFSHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR EVEN MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS TO SET IN.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA. SOME WIND
GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 25 KNOTS PLUS WITH SEAS INCREASING FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, A
STALLED FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT COULD
ENHANCE SEAS AND/OR WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, ESPECIALLY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 020106
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
906 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY,
EVENTUALLY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK TROUGH/FRONT CROSSING THE
SE PART OF THE AREA HAVE TRIGGERED A FEW SCT SHOWERS. THERE WERE A
FEW LTG IMPULSES OFF ACY EARLIER WITH A COUPLE OF THE CELLS. THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE HAVE JUST KEPT
IN THE SMALL CHC/SLGT CHC POPS IN THE FCST FROM EARLIER. OTHER
THAN THAT...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FCST WITH SKIES MOSTLY
CLR AROUND THE AREA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED
FOR THE LOWS EARLIER WHICH ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTHWEST, WITH OUR AREA ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE HIGH. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW ONE
INCH, AND WITH NO SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, SUNDAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN
SATURDAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MIXED 925MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES, MAV/MET MOS, AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A HOT START AND RELATIVELY COOL AND WETTER LOOKING FINISH TO THE
LONG TERM. THE DETAILS THOUGH AS TO WHAT OCCURS AFTER WE GET THERE
REMAINS MUDDLED. BOTH THE WRF-NMM AND GFS HAD A VERY GOOD 500MB
INITIALIZATION WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY BETTER AT 850MB AND THE WRF-
NMMB NOTICEABLY BETTER AT 925MB (GFS WARM BIAS). THE GFS DP/DT
GENERALLY SHOWS A FLATTER TROF IN THE EAST AND BROADER RIDGE OUT
WEST, WITH DECENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.

TO THAT END, THE 12Z OP GFS LOOKED MORE IN SYNC WITH THE GEFS MEAN
THAN THE 06Z RUN DID. BUT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS
AS TO HOW ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC TROF WILL TRANSLATE OVER THE WRN
NOAM RIDGE INTO THE ERN NOAM TROF. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY OR CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS. DEVELOPING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND THEIR PREDECESSOR AND/OR EMERGING SHORT
WAVES SEEM TO BE THE DRIVERS OF THIS. BUT AT THIS POINT ITS
DIFFICULT TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN FEEDBACK MCV(S) AND LEGITIMATE
TRIGGERS. THUS THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS LONG ON CONTINUITY AND
SHORT ON BEING ABLE TO DIFFERENTIATE DRY WEATHER DAYS.

THE GREATEST IMPACT TO OUR WEATHER SHOULD BE A HOT DAY ON MONDAY
CLOSE TO URBAN CORRIDOR HEAT HEADLINE LEVELS, POSSIBLY STRONG STORMS
IF THEY CAN ARRIVE IN TIME ON MONDAY EVENING AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IF ANY OF THE SUBSEQUENT WAVE OR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
CAN BACK INTO OUR CWA.

THE LONG TERM START RELATIVELY EASY WITH A QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT.
BECAUSE DEW POINTS HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LOW AND WINDS LIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS, WE HAVE MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING,
MORE RURAL LOCATIONS GETTING TO RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE LEVELS.

ON MONDAY OUR CWA SHOULD SPEND MOST OF THE DAY IN A SUBSIDENCE
REGION BETWEEN THE UPWARD MOTION FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH OUR OLD CFP FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT. PREDICTED CONVECTIVE TEMPS GET REACHED LATE IN THE DAY, SO
WE KEPT IN A LOW CHANCE "NORTHWEST" DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS GFS
RUN IS ON THE HOT SIDE (INITIALIZED HOT TOO) OF THE ENSEMBLE
CLUSTER. OF LATE THE PREDICTED 2M TEMPS AS IS HAVE COME AS CLOSE
AS ADDING ABOUT 10C TO 925MB TEMPS. THIS KEPT OUR MAX TEMPS CLOSE
TO CONTINUITY. BECAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE ALOFT IS STILL WEST, DEW
POINTS ARE PREDICTED TO DROP. THIS HAS AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
TOPPING IN THE 90S (MID 90S URBAN CORRIDOR) FOR NOW.

IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH, THE CURRENT FORECAST SCENARIO
LOOKS ABOUT SIX HOURS TOO LATE TO MAXIMIZE IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
ON PAPER, THIS ONE HAS VIGOR AS THERE IS A PREDICTED EML, TT(S)
ABOVE 50 (TEMPS AT 500MB ARE RELATIVELY LOW), DCAPES ABOVE 1000J
AND BULK SHEAR VALUES NORTH OF 30 KNOTS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF OUR CWA. BUT BECAUSE OF ITS LATER ARRIVAL TIME AND ALSO
BECAUSE ITS GOING INTO A LESSER SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, WE KEPT CHANCE
POPS AND DECREASED THEM TOWARD THE COAST. SOME MODELS HAVE NO
MEASURABLE SOUTHEAST OF I95 CORRIDOR.

ITS BEEN THE SUMMER OF 1000+J (WRF-NMMB) VS 0J (GFS) MIXED LAYER
CAPES AND TUESDAY IS NO EXCEPTION. THE GFS IS EXTREMELY DRY AND
VERY CONFINED WITH ITS APPROACHING VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. WHILE THE
NAM/WRF HAS VERIFIED HOT, THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP (LOOKS TO PROBABLY BE
A SECONDARY CFP) INDICATES THAT A PRECIPITATION CHANCE BE INCLUDED.
WE KEPT LOW CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. THERE SHOULD BE A DROP IN DEW
POINTS TUESDAY, BUT WITH THE DOUBLE FRONT STRUCTURE, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE LOWER, BUT NOT AS MUCH OF A DROP OFF. MAX TEMPS AOA STAT
GUIDANCE.

THERE IS BETTER MODELING CONSENSUS ABOUT THE LACK OF PCPN FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WE WANT TO SEE AT LEAST ONE MORE
SOUNDING RUN BEFORE REMOVING ALL POPS. REGARDLESS OF POPS,
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER.

THEN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, NO MODELS ARE KEYING ON ANY
SPECIFIC 12 HOUR PERIOD AS THE WETTEST IN UNISON. THE ONLY
CONSISTENCY IS THAT THEY ARE ALL DIFFERENT AND IF WE WENT BACK TO
THE PREVIOUS SOUNDING RUN, THEY WERE ALL DIFFERENT AGAIN. UNTIL
THIS WAVE TRAIN SETTLES, WE HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN ALL THREE
DAYS. IT WOULD SEEM THAT SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA HAVE HIGHER
CHANCES AND HIGHER CHANCES OF HVYR PCPN THAN NORTH, BUT THAT IS
ABOUT AS CONFIDENT A STATEMENT AS WE CAN MAKE RIGHT NOW. THIS
FORECAST KEPT MUCH OF A CONTINUITY/WPC BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE EVENING, BUT CHANCES OF
HITTING A TAF SITE ARE MINIMAL SO THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM FOR MANY LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH ANY DIRECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WILL
BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY, THEN SOUTHWESTERLY
DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TERMINALS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT RURAL AIRPORTS IN FOG EARLY
MONDAY.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR, BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LATE.

MONDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINATELY MVFR DUE TO CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS
AS WELL AS FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHWRS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINANTLY VFR.

THURSDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY,
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND
25 KNOTS PLUS WITH SEAS INCREASING TO AROUND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PRECEDING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. MODELS
SOMETIMES INCREASE SEAS TOO QUICKLY, SO THIS MAY HOLD OFF TO
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE DUE TO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST WATERS. STRONGER LOWS MIGHT BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/KLINE/ROBERTSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 020106
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
906 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY,
EVENTUALLY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AND THE WEAK TROUGH/FRONT CROSSING THE
SE PART OF THE AREA HAVE TRIGGERED A FEW SCT SHOWERS. THERE WERE A
FEW LTG IMPULSES OFF ACY EARLIER WITH A COUPLE OF THE CELLS. THE
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WE HAVE JUST KEPT
IN THE SMALL CHC/SLGT CHC POPS IN THE FCST FROM EARLIER. OTHER
THAN THAT...FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FCST WITH SKIES MOSTLY
CLR AROUND THE AREA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED
FOR THE LOWS EARLIER WHICH ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTHWEST, WITH OUR AREA ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE HIGH. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW ONE
INCH, AND WITH NO SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, SUNDAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN
SATURDAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MIXED 925MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES, MAV/MET MOS, AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A HOT START AND RELATIVELY COOL AND WETTER LOOKING FINISH TO THE
LONG TERM. THE DETAILS THOUGH AS TO WHAT OCCURS AFTER WE GET THERE
REMAINS MUDDLED. BOTH THE WRF-NMM AND GFS HAD A VERY GOOD 500MB
INITIALIZATION WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY BETTER AT 850MB AND THE WRF-
NMMB NOTICEABLY BETTER AT 925MB (GFS WARM BIAS). THE GFS DP/DT
GENERALLY SHOWS A FLATTER TROF IN THE EAST AND BROADER RIDGE OUT
WEST, WITH DECENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.

TO THAT END, THE 12Z OP GFS LOOKED MORE IN SYNC WITH THE GEFS MEAN
THAN THE 06Z RUN DID. BUT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS
AS TO HOW ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC TROF WILL TRANSLATE OVER THE WRN
NOAM RIDGE INTO THE ERN NOAM TROF. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY OR CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS. DEVELOPING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND THEIR PREDECESSOR AND/OR EMERGING SHORT
WAVES SEEM TO BE THE DRIVERS OF THIS. BUT AT THIS POINT ITS
DIFFICULT TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN FEEDBACK MCV(S) AND LEGITIMATE
TRIGGERS. THUS THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS LONG ON CONTINUITY AND
SHORT ON BEING ABLE TO DIFFERENTIATE DRY WEATHER DAYS.

THE GREATEST IMPACT TO OUR WEATHER SHOULD BE A HOT DAY ON MONDAY
CLOSE TO URBAN CORRIDOR HEAT HEADLINE LEVELS, POSSIBLY STRONG STORMS
IF THEY CAN ARRIVE IN TIME ON MONDAY EVENING AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IF ANY OF THE SUBSEQUENT WAVE OR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
CAN BACK INTO OUR CWA.

THE LONG TERM START RELATIVELY EASY WITH A QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT.
BECAUSE DEW POINTS HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LOW AND WINDS LIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS, WE HAVE MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING,
MORE RURAL LOCATIONS GETTING TO RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE LEVELS.

ON MONDAY OUR CWA SHOULD SPEND MOST OF THE DAY IN A SUBSIDENCE
REGION BETWEEN THE UPWARD MOTION FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH OUR OLD CFP FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT. PREDICTED CONVECTIVE TEMPS GET REACHED LATE IN THE DAY, SO
WE KEPT IN A LOW CHANCE "NORTHWEST" DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS GFS
RUN IS ON THE HOT SIDE (INITIALIZED HOT TOO) OF THE ENSEMBLE
CLUSTER. OF LATE THE PREDICTED 2M TEMPS AS IS HAVE COME AS CLOSE
AS ADDING ABOUT 10C TO 925MB TEMPS. THIS KEPT OUR MAX TEMPS CLOSE
TO CONTINUITY. BECAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE ALOFT IS STILL WEST, DEW
POINTS ARE PREDICTED TO DROP. THIS HAS AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
TOPPING IN THE 90S (MID 90S URBAN CORRIDOR) FOR NOW.

IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH, THE CURRENT FORECAST SCENARIO
LOOKS ABOUT SIX HOURS TOO LATE TO MAXIMIZE IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
ON PAPER, THIS ONE HAS VIGOR AS THERE IS A PREDICTED EML, TT(S)
ABOVE 50 (TEMPS AT 500MB ARE RELATIVELY LOW), DCAPES ABOVE 1000J
AND BULK SHEAR VALUES NORTH OF 30 KNOTS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF OUR CWA. BUT BECAUSE OF ITS LATER ARRIVAL TIME AND ALSO
BECAUSE ITS GOING INTO A LESSER SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, WE KEPT CHANCE
POPS AND DECREASED THEM TOWARD THE COAST. SOME MODELS HAVE NO
MEASURABLE SOUTHEAST OF I95 CORRIDOR.

ITS BEEN THE SUMMER OF 1000+J (WRF-NMMB) VS 0J (GFS) MIXED LAYER
CAPES AND TUESDAY IS NO EXCEPTION. THE GFS IS EXTREMELY DRY AND
VERY CONFINED WITH ITS APPROACHING VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. WHILE THE
NAM/WRF HAS VERIFIED HOT, THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP (LOOKS TO PROBABLY BE
A SECONDARY CFP) INDICATES THAT A PRECIPITATION CHANCE BE INCLUDED.
WE KEPT LOW CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. THERE SHOULD BE A DROP IN DEW
POINTS TUESDAY, BUT WITH THE DOUBLE FRONT STRUCTURE, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE LOWER, BUT NOT AS MUCH OF A DROP OFF. MAX TEMPS AOA STAT
GUIDANCE.

THERE IS BETTER MODELING CONSENSUS ABOUT THE LACK OF PCPN FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WE WANT TO SEE AT LEAST ONE MORE
SOUNDING RUN BEFORE REMOVING ALL POPS. REGARDLESS OF POPS,
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER.

THEN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, NO MODELS ARE KEYING ON ANY
SPECIFIC 12 HOUR PERIOD AS THE WETTEST IN UNISON. THE ONLY
CONSISTENCY IS THAT THEY ARE ALL DIFFERENT AND IF WE WENT BACK TO
THE PREVIOUS SOUNDING RUN, THEY WERE ALL DIFFERENT AGAIN. UNTIL
THIS WAVE TRAIN SETTLES, WE HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN ALL THREE
DAYS. IT WOULD SEEM THAT SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA HAVE HIGHER
CHANCES AND HIGHER CHANCES OF HVYR PCPN THAN NORTH, BUT THAT IS
ABOUT AS CONFIDENT A STATEMENT AS WE CAN MAKE RIGHT NOW. THIS
FORECAST KEPT MUCH OF A CONTINUITY/WPC BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE EVENING, BUT CHANCES OF
HITTING A TAF SITE ARE MINIMAL SO THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM FOR MANY LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH ANY DIRECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WILL
BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY, THEN SOUTHWESTERLY
DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TERMINALS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT RURAL AIRPORTS IN FOG EARLY
MONDAY.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR, BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LATE.

MONDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINATELY MVFR DUE TO CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS
AS WELL AS FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHWRS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINANTLY VFR.

THURSDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY,
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND
25 KNOTS PLUS WITH SEAS INCREASING TO AROUND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PRECEDING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. MODELS
SOMETIMES INCREASE SEAS TOO QUICKLY, SO THIS MAY HOLD OFF TO
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE DUE TO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST WATERS. STRONGER LOWS MIGHT BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/KLINE/ROBERTSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 011958
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY,
EVENTUALLY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER
OFFSHORE TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST.

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPORADICALLY DEVELOP DUE TO THE DAYTIME
HEATING AND A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES ALOFT. A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE IF UPDRAFTS BECOME STRONG ENOUGH WITH SOME
SHOWERS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. AS THE SUN
BEGINS TO SET, AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS LOST, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY
GENERALLY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, AN AREA OF SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
DELMARVA. A WEAK SHORT VORTICITY IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREAS, HELPING TO ENHANCE LIFT AS THE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THIS POTENTIAL, SO WE`LL INSERT A FEW HOURS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTHWEST, WITH OUR AREA ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE HIGH. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW ONE
INCH, AND WITH NO SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, SUNDAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN
SATURDAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MIXED 925MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES, MAV/MET MOS, AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A HOT START AND RELATIVELY COOL AND WETTER LOOKING FINISH TO THE
LONG TERM. THE DETAILS THOUGH AS TO WHAT OCCURS AFTER WE GET THERE
REMAINS MUDDLED. BOTH THE WRF-NMM AND GFS HAD A VERY GOOD 500MB
INITIALIZATION WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY BETTER AT 850MB AND THE WRF-
NMMB NOTICEABLY BETTER AT 925MB (GFS WARM BIAS). THE GFS DP/DT
GENERALLY SHOWS A FLATTER TROF IN THE EAST AND BROADER RIDGE OUT
WEST, WITH DECENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.

TO THAT END, THE 12Z OP GFS LOOKED MORE IN SYNC WITH THE GEFS MEAN
THAN THE 06Z RUN DID. BUT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS
AS TO HOW ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC TROF WILL TRANSLATE OVER THE WRN
NOAM RIDGE INTO THE ERN NOAM TROF. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY OR CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS. DEVELOPING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND THEIR PREDECESSOR AND/OR EMERGING SHORT
WAVES SEEM TO BE THE DRIVERS OF THIS. BUT AT THIS POINT ITS
DIFFICULT TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN FEEDBACK MCV(S) AND LEGITIMATE
TRIGGERS. THUS THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS LONG ON CONTINUITY AND
SHORT ON BEING ABLE TO DIFFERENTIATE DRY WEATHER DAYS.

THE GREATEST IMPACT TO OUR WEATHER SHOULD BE A HOT DAY ON MONDAY
CLOSE TO URBAN CORRIDOR HEAT HEADLINE LEVELS, POSSIBLY STRONG STORMS
IF THEY CAN ARRIVE IN TIME ON MONDAY EVENING AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IF ANY OF THE SUBSEQUENT WAVE OR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
CAN BACK INTO OUR CWA.

THE LONG TERM START RELATIVELY EASY WITH A QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT.
BECAUSE DEW POINTS HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LOW AND WINDS LIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS, WE HAVE MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING,
MORE RURAL LOCATIONS GETTING TO RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE LEVELS.

ON MONDAY OUR CWA SHOULD SPEND MOST OF THE DAY IN A SUBSIDENCE
REGION BETWEEN THE UPWARD MOTION FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH OUR OLD CFP FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT. PREDICTED CONVECTIVE TEMPS GET REACHED LATE IN THE DAY, SO
WE KEPT IN A LOW CHANCE "NORTHWEST" DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS GFS
RUN IS ON THE HOT SIDE (INITIALIZED HOT TOO) OF THE ENSEMBLE
CLUSTER. OF LATE THE PREDICTED 2M TEMPS AS IS HAVE COME AS CLOSE
AS ADDING ABOUT 10C TO 925MB TEMPS. THIS KEPT OUR MAX TEMPS CLOSE
TO CONTINUITY. BECAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE ALOFT IS STILL WEST, DEW
POINTS ARE PREDICTED TO DROP. THIS HAS AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
TOPPING IN THE 90S (MID 90S URBAN CORRIDOR) FOR NOW.

IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH, THE CURRENT FORECAST SCENARIO
LOOKS ABOUT SIX HOURS TOO LATE TO MAXIMIZE IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
ON PAPER, THIS ONE HAS VIGOR AS THERE IS A PREDICTED EML, TT(S)
ABOVE 50 (TEMPS AT 500MB ARE RELATIVELY LOW), DCAPES ABOVE 1000J
AND BULK SHEAR VALUES NORTH OF 30 KNOTS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF OUR CWA. BUT BECAUSE OF ITS LATER ARRIVAL TIME AND ALSO
BECAUSE ITS GOING INTO A LESSER SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, WE KEPT CHANCE
POPS AND DECREASED THEM TOWARD THE COAST. SOME MODELS HAVE NO
MEASURABLE SOUTHEAST OF I95 CORRIDOR.

ITS BEEN THE SUMMER OF 1000+J (WRF-NMMB) VS 0J (GFS) MIXED LAYER
CAPES AND TUESDAY IS NO EXCEPTION. THE GFS IS EXTREMELY DRY AND
VERY CONFINED WITH ITS APPROACHING VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. WHILE THE
NAM/WRF HAS VERIFIED HOT, THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP (LOOKS TO PROBABLY BE
A SECONDARY CFP) INDICATES THAT A PRECIPITATION CHANCE BE INCLUDED.
WE KEPT LOW CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. THERE SHOULD BE A DROP IN DEW
POINTS TUESDAY, BUT WITH THE DOUBLE FRONT STRUCTURE, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE LOWER, BUT NOT AS MUCH OF A DROP OFF. MAX TEMPS AOA STAT
GUIDANCE.

THERE IS BETTER MODELING CONSENSUS ABOUT THE LACK OF PCPN FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WE WANT TO SEE AT LEAST ONE MORE
SOUNDING RUN BEFORE REMOVING ALL POPS. REGARDLESS OF POPS,
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER.

THEN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, NO MODELS ARE KEYING ON ANY
SPECIFIC 12 HOUR PERIOD AS THE WETTEST IN UNISON. THE ONLY
CONSISTENCY IS THAT THEY ARE ALL DIFFERENT AND IF WE WENT BACK TO
THE PREVIOUS SOUNDING RUN, THEY WERE ALL DIFFERENT AGAIN. UNTIL
THIS WAVE TRAIN SETTLES, WE HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN ALL THREE
DAYS. IT WOULD SEEM THAT SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA HAVE HIGHER
CHANCES AND HIGHER CHANCES OF HVYR PCPN THAN NORTH, BUT THAT IS
ABOUT AS CONFIDENT A STATEMENT AS WE CAN MAKE RIGHT NOW. THIS
FORECAST KEPT MUCH OF A CONTINUITY/WPC BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT CHANCES OF HITTING
A TAF SITE ARE MINIMAL SO THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

GUSTY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
GUSTS DROPPING AROUND SUNSET. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM FOR MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH ANY DIRECTION
WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY,
THEN SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TERMINALS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT RURAL AIRPORTS IN FOG EARLY
MONDAY.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR, BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LATE.

MONDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINATELY MVFR DUE TO CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS
AS WELL AS FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHWRS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINANTLY VFR.

THURSDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY,
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND
25 KNOTS PLUS WITH SEAS INCREASING TO AROUND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PRECEDING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. MODELS
SOMETIMES INCREASE SEAS TOO QUICKLY, SO THIS MAY HOLD OFF TO
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE DUE TO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST WATERS. STRONGER LOWS MIGHT BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/KLINE/ROBERTSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011958
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY,
EVENTUALLY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER
OFFSHORE TONIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST.

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPORADICALLY DEVELOP DUE TO THE DAYTIME
HEATING AND A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES ALOFT. A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE IF UPDRAFTS BECOME STRONG ENOUGH WITH SOME
SHOWERS, BUT ANY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED. AS THE SUN
BEGINS TO SET, AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY IS LOST, SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY
GENERALLY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, AN AREA OF SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
DELMARVA. A WEAK SHORT VORTICITY IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREAS, HELPING TO ENHANCE LIFT AS THE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES FURTHER OFFSHORE. THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THIS POTENTIAL, SO WE`LL INSERT A FEW HOURS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTHWEST, WITH OUR AREA ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE HIGH. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW ONE
INCH, AND WITH NO SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, SUNDAY IS EXPECTED
TO BE A PRECIPITATION FREE DAY.

TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER THAN
SATURDAY FOR MANY LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH HIGHS ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MIXED 925MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES, MAV/MET MOS, AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A HOT START AND RELATIVELY COOL AND WETTER LOOKING FINISH TO THE
LONG TERM. THE DETAILS THOUGH AS TO WHAT OCCURS AFTER WE GET THERE
REMAINS MUDDLED. BOTH THE WRF-NMM AND GFS HAD A VERY GOOD 500MB
INITIALIZATION WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY BETTER AT 850MB AND THE WRF-
NMMB NOTICEABLY BETTER AT 925MB (GFS WARM BIAS). THE GFS DP/DT
GENERALLY SHOWS A FLATTER TROF IN THE EAST AND BROADER RIDGE OUT
WEST, WITH DECENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.

TO THAT END, THE 12Z OP GFS LOOKED MORE IN SYNC WITH THE GEFS MEAN
THAN THE 06Z RUN DID. BUT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS
AS TO HOW ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC TROF WILL TRANSLATE OVER THE WRN
NOAM RIDGE INTO THE ERN NOAM TROF. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY OR CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS. DEVELOPING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS AND THEIR PREDECESSOR AND/OR EMERGING SHORT
WAVES SEEM TO BE THE DRIVERS OF THIS. BUT AT THIS POINT ITS
DIFFICULT TO DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN FEEDBACK MCV(S) AND LEGITIMATE
TRIGGERS. THUS THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS LONG ON CONTINUITY AND
SHORT ON BEING ABLE TO DIFFERENTIATE DRY WEATHER DAYS.

THE GREATEST IMPACT TO OUR WEATHER SHOULD BE A HOT DAY ON MONDAY
CLOSE TO URBAN CORRIDOR HEAT HEADLINE LEVELS, POSSIBLY STRONG STORMS
IF THEY CAN ARRIVE IN TIME ON MONDAY EVENING AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL IF ANY OF THE SUBSEQUENT WAVE OR WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
CAN BACK INTO OUR CWA.

THE LONG TERM START RELATIVELY EASY WITH A QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT.
BECAUSE DEW POINTS HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY
LOW AND WINDS LIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS, WE HAVE MIN TEMPS IN OUTLYING,
MORE RURAL LOCATIONS GETTING TO RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE LEVELS.

ON MONDAY OUR CWA SHOULD SPEND MOST OF THE DAY IN A SUBSIDENCE
REGION BETWEEN THE UPWARD MOTION FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT AND
PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE ASSOCIATED WITH OUR OLD CFP FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT. PREDICTED CONVECTIVE TEMPS GET REACHED LATE IN THE DAY, SO
WE KEPT IN A LOW CHANCE "NORTHWEST" DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS GFS
RUN IS ON THE HOT SIDE (INITIALIZED HOT TOO) OF THE ENSEMBLE
CLUSTER. OF LATE THE PREDICTED 2M TEMPS AS IS HAVE COME AS CLOSE
AS ADDING ABOUT 10C TO 925MB TEMPS. THIS KEPT OUR MAX TEMPS CLOSE
TO CONTINUITY. BECAUSE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE ALOFT IS STILL WEST, DEW
POINTS ARE PREDICTED TO DROP. THIS HAS AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
TOPPING IN THE 90S (MID 90S URBAN CORRIDOR) FOR NOW.

IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH, THE CURRENT FORECAST SCENARIO
LOOKS ABOUT SIX HOURS TOO LATE TO MAXIMIZE IN OUR FORECAST AREA.
ON PAPER, THIS ONE HAS VIGOR AS THERE IS A PREDICTED EML, TT(S)
ABOVE 50 (TEMPS AT 500MB ARE RELATIVELY LOW), DCAPES ABOVE 1000J
AND BULK SHEAR VALUES NORTH OF 30 KNOTS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF OUR CWA. BUT BECAUSE OF ITS LATER ARRIVAL TIME AND ALSO
BECAUSE ITS GOING INTO A LESSER SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, WE KEPT CHANCE
POPS AND DECREASED THEM TOWARD THE COAST. SOME MODELS HAVE NO
MEASURABLE SOUTHEAST OF I95 CORRIDOR.

ITS BEEN THE SUMMER OF 1000+J (WRF-NMMB) VS 0J (GFS) MIXED LAYER
CAPES AND TUESDAY IS NO EXCEPTION. THE GFS IS EXTREMELY DRY AND
VERY CONFINED WITH ITS APPROACHING VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. WHILE THE
NAM/WRF HAS VERIFIED HOT, THE SYNOPTIC SET-UP (LOOKS TO PROBABLY BE
A SECONDARY CFP) INDICATES THAT A PRECIPITATION CHANCE BE INCLUDED.
WE KEPT LOW CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. THERE SHOULD BE A DROP IN DEW
POINTS TUESDAY, BUT WITH THE DOUBLE FRONT STRUCTURE, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE LOWER, BUT NOT AS MUCH OF A DROP OFF. MAX TEMPS AOA STAT
GUIDANCE.

THERE IS BETTER MODELING CONSENSUS ABOUT THE LACK OF PCPN FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WE WANT TO SEE AT LEAST ONE MORE
SOUNDING RUN BEFORE REMOVING ALL POPS. REGARDLESS OF POPS,
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER.

THEN FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, NO MODELS ARE KEYING ON ANY
SPECIFIC 12 HOUR PERIOD AS THE WETTEST IN UNISON. THE ONLY
CONSISTENCY IS THAT THEY ARE ALL DIFFERENT AND IF WE WENT BACK TO
THE PREVIOUS SOUNDING RUN, THEY WERE ALL DIFFERENT AGAIN. UNTIL
THIS WAVE TRAIN SETTLES, WE HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN ALL THREE
DAYS. IT WOULD SEEM THAT SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR CWA HAVE HIGHER
CHANCES AND HIGHER CHANCES OF HVYR PCPN THAN NORTH, BUT THAT IS
ABOUT AS CONFIDENT A STATEMENT AS WE CAN MAKE RIGHT NOW. THIS
FORECAST KEPT MUCH OF A CONTINUITY/WPC BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT CHANCES OF HITTING
A TAF SITE ARE MINIMAL SO THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

GUSTY WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
GUSTS DROPPING AROUND SUNSET. WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM FOR MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH ANY DIRECTION
WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY,
THEN SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TERMINALS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT RURAL AIRPORTS IN FOG EARLY
MONDAY.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY VFR, BUT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LATE.

MONDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINATELY MVFR DUE TO CIG AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS
AS WELL AS FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHWRS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PREDOMINANTLY VFR.

THURSDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY,
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...SOME WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND
25 KNOTS PLUS WITH SEAS INCREASING TO AROUND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW PRECEDING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. MODELS
SOMETIMES INCREASE SEAS TOO QUICKLY, SO THIS MAY HOLD OFF TO
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE DUE TO WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST WATERS. STRONGER LOWS MIGHT BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS TO THE OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/KLINE/ROBERTSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 011449
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1049 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST SO FAR. ONLY SOME
MINOR HOURLY GRID ADJUSTMENTS, MAINLY TEMP/DEWPOINTS AND SKY
COVER. OTHERWISE, FORECAST LOOKS GOOD; MOSTLY DRY WITH A ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY NORTH.

A MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EVEN AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT/WIND SHIFT SLIDES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DEWPOINTS BEHIND AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY UNIFORM SO
NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OR STRONGER LIFT
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE BEST DYNAMICS STAY TO OUR NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPES GET CLOSE TO 1000J/KG BUT ONLY FOR A
BRIEF TIME PERIOD AS WE COULD HAVE MORE INTERACTION WITH A THERMAL
TROUGH IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THAN ANYWHERE ELSE TODAY.

STRONGER HEATING COMBINED WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD MAKE
FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST OUT OF
REACH. BETTER VERTICAL MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL/WIND SHIFT PASSAGE. OVERALL A WARM
BUT PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME
HEATING AND WE LOSE THE GUSTY WINDS. ANY CU THAT FORMS WILL ALSO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT MAY TAKE A
WHILE TO LOSE THE SUSTAINED WINDS BEFORE DECOUPLING BUT EXPECTING
OUR SHELTERED LOCATIONS TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE LOW-
60S WITH EVEN COOLER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM IS ANTICIPATED AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST, CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
EXTENDS EAST AND INFLUENCES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AMPLE SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AS HIGHS REACH MOSTLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S
WITH A FEW AREAS NEARING 90 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
TOLERABLE, RANGING MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, A MORE ACTIVE, UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY PASS THROUGH THE
REGION FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, BUT TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF ANY SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AND FOR NOW, WE HAVE KEPT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND
LIFT. INTO TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE PASSING SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA, EVENTUALLY STALLING OFFSHORE. WHILE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF ANY POP-UP SHWRS/TSTORMS LOOKS TO BE LOW, SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER
POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT PERHAPS MOVING OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE
DAY.

THIS OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
THURSDAY, AND PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING NEARBY JUST TO OUR SOUTH. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE, AND
WHILE A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. WE THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED SOME HIGHER CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY, WE MOSTLY USED A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FOR TEMPERATURES,
POPS, AND WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20
KNOTS LOOK TO OCCUR AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD STAY NORTH OF ABE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD; ALTHOUGH, SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OUR WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT VEERS TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME
GUSTINESS...WE SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE
TOWARDS 4 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING AND THEN
SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, SOME
WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 25 KNOTS PLUS WITH SEAS INCREASING FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 011449
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1049 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST SO FAR. ONLY SOME
MINOR HOURLY GRID ADJUSTMENTS, MAINLY TEMP/DEWPOINTS AND SKY
COVER. OTHERWISE, FORECAST LOOKS GOOD; MOSTLY DRY WITH A ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY NORTH.

A MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EVEN AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT/WIND SHIFT SLIDES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DEWPOINTS BEHIND AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY UNIFORM SO
NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OR STRONGER LIFT
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE BEST DYNAMICS STAY TO OUR NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPES GET CLOSE TO 1000J/KG BUT ONLY FOR A
BRIEF TIME PERIOD AS WE COULD HAVE MORE INTERACTION WITH A THERMAL
TROUGH IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THAN ANYWHERE ELSE TODAY.

STRONGER HEATING COMBINED WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD MAKE
FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST OUT OF
REACH. BETTER VERTICAL MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL/WIND SHIFT PASSAGE. OVERALL A WARM
BUT PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME
HEATING AND WE LOSE THE GUSTY WINDS. ANY CU THAT FORMS WILL ALSO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT MAY TAKE A
WHILE TO LOSE THE SUSTAINED WINDS BEFORE DECOUPLING BUT EXPECTING
OUR SHELTERED LOCATIONS TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE LOW-
60S WITH EVEN COOLER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM IS ANTICIPATED AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST, CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
EXTENDS EAST AND INFLUENCES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AMPLE SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AS HIGHS REACH MOSTLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S
WITH A FEW AREAS NEARING 90 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
TOLERABLE, RANGING MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, A MORE ACTIVE, UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY PASS THROUGH THE
REGION FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, BUT TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF ANY SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AND FOR NOW, WE HAVE KEPT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND
LIFT. INTO TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE PASSING SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA, EVENTUALLY STALLING OFFSHORE. WHILE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF ANY POP-UP SHWRS/TSTORMS LOOKS TO BE LOW, SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER
POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT PERHAPS MOVING OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE
DAY.

THIS OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
THURSDAY, AND PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING NEARBY JUST TO OUR SOUTH. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE, AND
WHILE A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. WE THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED SOME HIGHER CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY, WE MOSTLY USED A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FOR TEMPERATURES,
POPS, AND WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20
KNOTS LOOK TO OCCUR AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD STAY NORTH OF ABE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD; ALTHOUGH, SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OUR WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT VEERS TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME
GUSTINESS...WE SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE
TOWARDS 4 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING AND THEN
SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, SOME
WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 25 KNOTS PLUS WITH SEAS INCREASING FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 011449
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1049 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST SO FAR. ONLY SOME
MINOR HOURLY GRID ADJUSTMENTS, MAINLY TEMP/DEWPOINTS AND SKY
COVER. OTHERWISE, FORECAST LOOKS GOOD; MOSTLY DRY WITH A ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY NORTH.

A MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EVEN AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT/WIND SHIFT SLIDES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DEWPOINTS BEHIND AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY UNIFORM SO
NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OR STRONGER LIFT
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE BEST DYNAMICS STAY TO OUR NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPES GET CLOSE TO 1000J/KG BUT ONLY FOR A
BRIEF TIME PERIOD AS WE COULD HAVE MORE INTERACTION WITH A THERMAL
TROUGH IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THAN ANYWHERE ELSE TODAY.

STRONGER HEATING COMBINED WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD MAKE
FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST OUT OF
REACH. BETTER VERTICAL MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL/WIND SHIFT PASSAGE. OVERALL A WARM
BUT PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME
HEATING AND WE LOSE THE GUSTY WINDS. ANY CU THAT FORMS WILL ALSO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT MAY TAKE A
WHILE TO LOSE THE SUSTAINED WINDS BEFORE DECOUPLING BUT EXPECTING
OUR SHELTERED LOCATIONS TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE LOW-
60S WITH EVEN COOLER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM IS ANTICIPATED AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST, CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
EXTENDS EAST AND INFLUENCES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AMPLE SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AS HIGHS REACH MOSTLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S
WITH A FEW AREAS NEARING 90 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
TOLERABLE, RANGING MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, A MORE ACTIVE, UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY PASS THROUGH THE
REGION FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, BUT TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF ANY SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AND FOR NOW, WE HAVE KEPT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND
LIFT. INTO TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE PASSING SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA, EVENTUALLY STALLING OFFSHORE. WHILE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF ANY POP-UP SHWRS/TSTORMS LOOKS TO BE LOW, SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER
POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT PERHAPS MOVING OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE
DAY.

THIS OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
THURSDAY, AND PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING NEARBY JUST TO OUR SOUTH. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE, AND
WHILE A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. WE THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED SOME HIGHER CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY, WE MOSTLY USED A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FOR TEMPERATURES,
POPS, AND WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20
KNOTS LOOK TO OCCUR AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD STAY NORTH OF ABE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD; ALTHOUGH, SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OUR WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT VEERS TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME
GUSTINESS...WE SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE
TOWARDS 4 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING AND THEN
SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, SOME
WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 25 KNOTS PLUS WITH SEAS INCREASING FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010746
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EVEN AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT/WIND SHIFT SLIDES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DEWPOINTS BEHIND AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY UNIFORM SO
NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OR STRONGER LIFT
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE BEST DYNAMICS STAY TO OUR NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPES GET CLOSE TO 1000J/KG BUT ONLY FOR A
BRIEF TIME PERIOD AS WE COULD HAVE MORE INTERACTION WITH A THERMAL
TROUGH IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THAN ANYWHERE ELSE TODAY.

STRONGER HEATING COMBINED WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD MAKE
FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST OUT OF
REACH. BETTER VERTICAL MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL/WIND SHIFT PASSAGE. OVERALL A WARM
BUT PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME
HEATING AND WE LOSE THE GUSTY WINDS. ANY CU THAT FORMS WILL ALSO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT MAY TAKE A
WHILE TO LOSE THE SUSTAINED WINDS BEFORE DECOUPLING BUT EXPECTING
OUR SHELTERED LOCATIONS TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE LOW-
60S WITH EVEN COOLER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM IS ANTICIPATED AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST, CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
EXTENDS EAST AND INFLUENCES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AMPLE SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AS HIGHS REACH MOSTLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S
WITH A FEW AREAS NEARING 90 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
TOLERABLE, RANGING MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, A MORE ACTIVE, UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY PASS THROUGH THE
REGION FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, BUT TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF ANY SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AND FOR NOW, WE HAVE KEPT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND
LIFT. INTO TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE PASSING SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA, EVENTUALLY STALLING OFFSHORE. WHILE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF ANY POP-UP SHWRS/TSTORMS LOOKS TO BE LOW, SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER
POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT PERHAPS MOVING OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE
DAY.

THIS OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
THURSDAY, AND PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING NEARBY JUST TO OUR SOUTH. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE, AND
WHILE A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. WE THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED SOME HIGHER CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY, WE MOSTLY USED A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FOR TEMPERATURES,
POPS, AND WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20
KNOTS LOOK TO OCCUR AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD STAY NORTH OF ABE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD; ALTHOUGH, SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OUR WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT VEERS TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME
GUSTINESS...WE SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE
TOWARDS 4 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING AND THEN
SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, SOME
WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 25 KNOTS PLUS WITH SEAS INCREASING FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 010746
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EVEN AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT/WIND SHIFT SLIDES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DEWPOINTS BEHIND AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY UNIFORM SO
NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OR STRONGER LIFT
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE BEST DYNAMICS STAY TO OUR NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPES GET CLOSE TO 1000J/KG BUT ONLY FOR A
BRIEF TIME PERIOD AS WE COULD HAVE MORE INTERACTION WITH A THERMAL
TROUGH IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THAN ANYWHERE ELSE TODAY.

STRONGER HEATING COMBINED WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD MAKE
FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST OUT OF
REACH. BETTER VERTICAL MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL/WIND SHIFT PASSAGE. OVERALL A WARM
BUT PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME
HEATING AND WE LOSE THE GUSTY WINDS. ANY CU THAT FORMS WILL ALSO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT MAY TAKE A
WHILE TO LOSE THE SUSTAINED WINDS BEFORE DECOUPLING BUT EXPECTING
OUR SHELTERED LOCATIONS TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE LOW-
60S WITH EVEN COOLER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM IS ANTICIPATED AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST, CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
EXTENDS EAST AND INFLUENCES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AMPLE SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AS HIGHS REACH MOSTLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S
WITH A FEW AREAS NEARING 90 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
TOLERABLE, RANGING MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, A MORE ACTIVE, UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY PASS THROUGH THE
REGION FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, BUT TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF ANY SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AND FOR NOW, WE HAVE KEPT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND
LIFT. INTO TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE PASSING SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA, EVENTUALLY STALLING OFFSHORE. WHILE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF ANY POP-UP SHWRS/TSTORMS LOOKS TO BE LOW, SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER
POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT PERHAPS MOVING OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE
DAY.

THIS OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
THURSDAY, AND PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING NEARBY JUST TO OUR SOUTH. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE, AND
WHILE A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. WE THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED SOME HIGHER CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY, WE MOSTLY USED A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FOR TEMPERATURES,
POPS, AND WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20
KNOTS LOOK TO OCCUR AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD STAY NORTH OF ABE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD; ALTHOUGH, SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OUR WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT VEERS TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME
GUSTINESS...WE SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE
TOWARDS 4 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING AND THEN
SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, SOME
WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 25 KNOTS PLUS WITH SEAS INCREASING FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 010746
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE MID ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, EVENTUALLY STALLING OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTHEAST INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION EVEN AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT/WIND SHIFT SLIDES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DEWPOINTS BEHIND AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE RELATIVELY UNIFORM SO
NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OR STRONGER LIFT
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE BEST DYNAMICS STAY TO OUR NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPES GET CLOSE TO 1000J/KG BUT ONLY FOR A
BRIEF TIME PERIOD AS WE COULD HAVE MORE INTERACTION WITH A THERMAL
TROUGH IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THAN ANYWHERE ELSE TODAY.

STRONGER HEATING COMBINED WITH THE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD MAKE
FOR A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST OUT OF
REACH. BETTER VERTICAL MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONTAL/WIND SHIFT PASSAGE. OVERALL A WARM
BUT PLEASANT DAY EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DAYTIME
HEATING AND WE LOSE THE GUSTY WINDS. ANY CU THAT FORMS WILL ALSO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. IT MAY TAKE A
WHILE TO LOSE THE SUSTAINED WINDS BEFORE DECOUPLING BUT EXPECTING
OUR SHELTERED LOCATIONS TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE LOW-
60S WITH EVEN COOLER DEWPOINTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM IS ANTICIPATED AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST, CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
EXTENDS EAST AND INFLUENCES THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. AMPLE SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY, WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AS HIGHS REACH MOSTLY INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S
WITH A FEW AREAS NEARING 90 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
TOLERABLE, RANGING MAINLY FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, A MORE ACTIVE, UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY PASS THROUGH THE
REGION FROM LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, BUT TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF ANY SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AND FOR NOW, WE HAVE KEPT
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT BETTER FORCING AND
LIFT. INTO TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO BE PASSING SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA, EVENTUALLY STALLING OFFSHORE. WHILE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF ANY POP-UP SHWRS/TSTORMS LOOKS TO BE LOW, SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER
POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT PERHAPS MOVING OVER THE REGION LATER IN THE
DAY.

THIS OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
THURSDAY, AND PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING NEARBY JUST TO OUR SOUTH. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF
SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE, AND
WHILE A COMPLETE WASHOUT IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. WE THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED SOME HIGHER CHANCE
POPS FOR THE AREA ON THURSDAY. OTHERWISE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
UNCERTAINTY, WE MOSTLY USED A BLEND OF WPC GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FOR TEMPERATURES,
POPS, AND WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TOWARDS THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING. SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20
KNOTS LOOK TO OCCUR AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD STAY NORTH OF ABE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD; ALTHOUGH, SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OUR WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT VEERS TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT WITH SOME
GUSTINESS...WE SHOULD STAY BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL SEE AN INCREASE
TOWARDS 4 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING AND THEN
SUBSIDE AS THE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS; HOWEVER, SOME
WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 25 KNOTS PLUS WITH SEAS INCREASING FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

WEDNESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010154
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK
COLD FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO CROSS OUR
REGION LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, THEN STALL OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MAY ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM. WINDS HAVE ALREADY GENERALLY
DROPPED OFF TO 5 KT OR LESS. THUS, EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY UPPER 50S IN THE POCONOS AND LOW
70S IN AND NEAR PHILADELPHIA AND NEAR THE OCEAN AND BAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT IS BROADLY CYC BUT WITHOUT NOTEWORTHY
DISTURBANCES AND THE AIRMASS CONTINUES RATHER DRY. ONCLY EXPECTED
CLOUDS ARE SOME DIURNAL CU SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE SFC PRES PATTERN
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS WELL SO GENLY WLY WIND SHOULD DEVELOP
IN THE MORNING AND CONT THROUGH AFTN. THE 850MB WINDS ARE FCST TO BE
SMWHT STRONGER SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE GUSTINESS WITH AFTN
MIXING. HAVE INCLUDED A SLGT CHC FOR LATE AFTN T-STORMS OVER NRN NJ
AND ADJ PA WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTBY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

DOMINANT MID-LEVEL FEATURE THRU THE LONG-TERM PERIOD IS A CLOSED
LOW INVOF HUDSON`S BAY ALONG W/ SEVERAL S/WV DISTURBANCES MOVING
THRU IT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE MAINTAINED BY A DEVELOPING RIDGE
OVER WESTERN NOAM AND HIGH-LATITUDE BLOCKING OVER DAVIS STRAIT.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
INDIVIDUAL S/WV IMPULSES...AND HOW THEY AFFECT THE AMPLITUDE OF
THE TROUGH...A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK OVER NOAM SHOULD LOCK IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN THRU AT LEAST D+7. THE MOST APPARENT MODEL TRENDS
ARE TO SPEED THE TIMING OF A PRIMARY COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA ON
MON NIGHT /AS OPPOSED TO TUE NIGHT/ ...WITH THE FRONT BECOMING
STATIONARY NEAR THE NJ COAST AND DELMARVA THRU THU.

THE STALLED FRONT SOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE...GIVEN THE MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST THRU THE PERIOD...
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA PARALLELING
THE FRONT BY MID-WEEK. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
ECENS/GEFS MEANS...WITH OVERALL SUPPORT FROM THE INDIVIDUAL
MEMBERS AS WELL. THEREFORE...RELIED MORE HEAVILY ON THE EURO
GIVEN ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE AS WELL AS THE MORE STABLE ECENS/
GEFS MEANS...AND DISCOUNTED THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AFTER
00Z THU ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MORE ROBUST NOAM BLOCKING PATTERN.

OVERALL...THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN THE MON THRU THU TIME FRAME.
TEMPS WILL BE AOA NORMAL THRU AT LEAST WED...WITH ABOVE AVG
UNCERTAINTY GOING FORWARD...DUE TO THE QUESTIONABLE LOCATION
OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS.

DALIES...

SUNDAY...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT W/ HIGH PRES MOVING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
DAY. THE GRADIENT MAY RELAX ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS S/WV IMPULSE SKIRTS
TO THE NORTH AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE APPROACH OF THE S/WV WILL LEAD TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES...BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO POPS WERE FOCUSED TO THE WEST OF I-95
WHERE BETTER FORCING SHOULD RESIDE. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS
STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT...AND MAY BE MORE FOCUSED JUST
TO OUR WEST. THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE OVERDOING VERTICAL MIXING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 20-25 KNOT
WIND GUSTS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE JUST OFFSHORE MON NIGHT WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
STATIONARY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING THE CWA MON NIGHT...SO LOW POPS CONFINED
N/W OF I-95 FOR NOW. ON TUESDAY...THE CWA IS SITUATED BETWEEN
THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER S/WV DISTURBANCE JUST
TO OUR NORTH. W/ SUCH A SETUP...COULD EASILY SEE SOME PRECIP
IN DELMARVA AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY.
HAVE LOW POPS CONFINED N/W OF I-95 FOR NOW.

WED THRU FRI...THERE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORS A STATIONARY FRONT
IN THE VICINITY AND THE MODELS ALSO ADVERTISE A WAVE OF LOW-
PRESSURE TRAVERSING THIS BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO SUFFERING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES DURING THIS PERIOD
WHICH FURTHER ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS
WPC HAS THEIR MAX QPF AXIS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OVERNIGHT,
WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT (GENERALLY NEAR OR
BELOW 5 KT). BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING, WINDS (STILL OUT OF THE
WEST OR SOUTHWEST) MAY GUST TO 20 KT AT TIMES AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES. MAY SEE MID LEVEL (AROUND 5000 FT AGL) CUMULUS
BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE, 20 PERCENT, OF LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AT KABE, BUT CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EACH
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONT RATHER LIGHT OVER THE FORECAST WATERS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. TODAYS NW FLOW WILL TURN TO THE S AND
THEN SW TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SFC TROF BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT TONIGHT WILL
BUILD SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AS SWLY WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING TO 15
OR 20KT SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL EXTEND OVER
THE WATERS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OVR THE WATERS MON NIGHT AND STALL IN THE VICINITY THRU WEDNESDAY.

THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SEAS INCREASING...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET ATTM.

OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...AMC/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...AMC/FRANCK/JOHNSON/MEOLA
MARINE...AMC/FRANCK/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 010154
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK
COLD FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO CROSS OUR
REGION LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, THEN STALL OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MAY ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM. WINDS HAVE ALREADY GENERALLY
DROPPED OFF TO 5 KT OR LESS. THUS, EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE
60S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY UPPER 50S IN THE POCONOS AND LOW
70S IN AND NEAR PHILADELPHIA AND NEAR THE OCEAN AND BAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT IS BROADLY CYC BUT WITHOUT NOTEWORTHY
DISTURBANCES AND THE AIRMASS CONTINUES RATHER DRY. ONCLY EXPECTED
CLOUDS ARE SOME DIURNAL CU SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE SFC PRES PATTERN
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS WELL SO GENLY WLY WIND SHOULD DEVELOP
IN THE MORNING AND CONT THROUGH AFTN. THE 850MB WINDS ARE FCST TO BE
SMWHT STRONGER SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE GUSTINESS WITH AFTN
MIXING. HAVE INCLUDED A SLGT CHC FOR LATE AFTN T-STORMS OVER NRN NJ
AND ADJ PA WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTBY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

DOMINANT MID-LEVEL FEATURE THRU THE LONG-TERM PERIOD IS A CLOSED
LOW INVOF HUDSON`S BAY ALONG W/ SEVERAL S/WV DISTURBANCES MOVING
THRU IT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE MAINTAINED BY A DEVELOPING RIDGE
OVER WESTERN NOAM AND HIGH-LATITUDE BLOCKING OVER DAVIS STRAIT.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
INDIVIDUAL S/WV IMPULSES...AND HOW THEY AFFECT THE AMPLITUDE OF
THE TROUGH...A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK OVER NOAM SHOULD LOCK IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN THRU AT LEAST D+7. THE MOST APPARENT MODEL TRENDS
ARE TO SPEED THE TIMING OF A PRIMARY COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA ON
MON NIGHT /AS OPPOSED TO TUE NIGHT/ ...WITH THE FRONT BECOMING
STATIONARY NEAR THE NJ COAST AND DELMARVA THRU THU.

THE STALLED FRONT SOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE...GIVEN THE MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST THRU THE PERIOD...
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA PARALLELING
THE FRONT BY MID-WEEK. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
ECENS/GEFS MEANS...WITH OVERALL SUPPORT FROM THE INDIVIDUAL
MEMBERS AS WELL. THEREFORE...RELIED MORE HEAVILY ON THE EURO
GIVEN ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE AS WELL AS THE MORE STABLE ECENS/
GEFS MEANS...AND DISCOUNTED THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AFTER
00Z THU ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MORE ROBUST NOAM BLOCKING PATTERN.

OVERALL...THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN THE MON THRU THU TIME FRAME.
TEMPS WILL BE AOA NORMAL THRU AT LEAST WED...WITH ABOVE AVG
UNCERTAINTY GOING FORWARD...DUE TO THE QUESTIONABLE LOCATION
OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS.

DALIES...

SUNDAY...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT W/ HIGH PRES MOVING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
DAY. THE GRADIENT MAY RELAX ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS S/WV IMPULSE SKIRTS
TO THE NORTH AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE APPROACH OF THE S/WV WILL LEAD TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES...BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO POPS WERE FOCUSED TO THE WEST OF I-95
WHERE BETTER FORCING SHOULD RESIDE. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS
STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT...AND MAY BE MORE FOCUSED JUST
TO OUR WEST. THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE OVERDOING VERTICAL MIXING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 20-25 KNOT
WIND GUSTS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE JUST OFFSHORE MON NIGHT WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
STATIONARY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING THE CWA MON NIGHT...SO LOW POPS CONFINED
N/W OF I-95 FOR NOW. ON TUESDAY...THE CWA IS SITUATED BETWEEN
THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER S/WV DISTURBANCE JUST
TO OUR NORTH. W/ SUCH A SETUP...COULD EASILY SEE SOME PRECIP
IN DELMARVA AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY.
HAVE LOW POPS CONFINED N/W OF I-95 FOR NOW.

WED THRU FRI...THERE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORS A STATIONARY FRONT
IN THE VICINITY AND THE MODELS ALSO ADVERTISE A WAVE OF LOW-
PRESSURE TRAVERSING THIS BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO SUFFERING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES DURING THIS PERIOD
WHICH FURTHER ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS
WPC HAS THEIR MAX QPF AXIS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. OVERNIGHT,
WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT (GENERALLY NEAR OR
BELOW 5 KT). BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING, WINDS (STILL OUT OF THE
WEST OR SOUTHWEST) MAY GUST TO 20 KT AT TIMES AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES. MAY SEE MID LEVEL (AROUND 5000 FT AGL) CUMULUS
BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE, 20 PERCENT, OF LATE
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AT KABE, BUT CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EACH
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONT RATHER LIGHT OVER THE FORECAST WATERS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. TODAYS NW FLOW WILL TURN TO THE S AND
THEN SW TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SFC TROF BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT TONIGHT WILL
BUILD SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AS SWLY WINDS INCREASE...GUSTING TO 15
OR 20KT SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL EXTEND OVER
THE WATERS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OVR THE WATERS MON NIGHT AND STALL IN THE VICINITY THRU WEDNESDAY.

THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SEAS INCREASING...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET ATTM.

OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...AMC/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...AMC/FRANCK/JOHNSON/MEOLA
MARINE...AMC/FRANCK/MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 311946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK
COLD FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO CROSS OUR
REGION LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, THEN STALL OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MAY ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A RATHER PLEASANT SUMMER AFTERNOON IS UNDER WAY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS, TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S BUT DEWPTS IN THE 50S. SCT
DIURNAL CU HAVE FORMED OVER MOST OF THE AREA BUT THEY WILL THIN OUT
AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS EVENING. KDIX RADAR SHOWS A SEA BREEZE ALONG
PARTS OF THE NJ SHORE BUT IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE INLAND MUCH
AGAINST THE PREVAILING NW FLOW.

FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY UPPER 50S IN THE POCONOS
AND LOW 70S IN AND NEAR PHILADELPHIA AND NEAR THE OCEAN AND BAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT IS BROADLY CYC BUT WITHOUT NOTEWORTHY
DISTURBANCES AND THE AIRMASS CONTINUES RATHER DRY. ONCLY EXPECTED
CLOUDS ARE SOME DIURNAL CU SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE SFC PRES PATTERN
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS WELL SO GENLY WLY WIND SHOULD DEVELOP
IN THE MORNING AND CONT THROUGH AFTN. THE 850MB WINDS ARE FCST TO BE
SMWHT STRONGER SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE GUSTINESS WITH AFTN
MIXING. HAVE INCLUDED A SLGT CHC FOR LATE AFTN T-STORMS OVER NRN NJ
AND ADJ PA WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTBY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

OVERVIEW...

DOMINANT MID-LEVEL FEATURE THRU THE LONG-TERM PERIOD IS A CLOSED
LOW INVOF HUDSON`S BAY ALONG W/ SEVERAL S/WV DISTURBANCES MOVING
THRU IT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE MAINTAINED BY A DEVELOPING RIDGE
OVER WESTERN NOAM AND HIGH-LATITUDE BLOCKING OVER DAVIS STRAIT.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
INDIVIDUAL S/WV IMPULSES...AND HOW THEY AFFECT THE AMPLITUDE OF
THE TROUGH...A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK OVER NOAM SHOULD LOCK IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN THRU AT LEAST D+7. THE MOST APPARENT MODEL TRENDS
ARE TO SPEED THE TIMING OF A PRIMARY COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA ON
MON NIGHT /AS OPPOSED TO TUE NIGHT/ ...WITH THE FRONT BECOMING
STATIONARY NEAR THE NJ COAST AND DELMARVA THRU THU.

THE STALLED FRONT SOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE...GIVEN THE MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST THRU THE PERIOD...
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA PARALLELING
THE FRONT BY MID-WEEK. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
ECENS/GEFS MEANS...WITH OVERALL SUPPORT FROM THE INDIVIDUAL
MEMBERS AS WELL. THEREFORE...RELIED MORE HEAVILY ON THE EURO
GIVEN ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE AS WELL AS THE MORE STABLE ECENS/
GEFS MEANS...AND DISCOUNTED THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AFTER
00Z THU ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MORE ROBUST NOAM BLOCKING PATTERN.

OVERALL...THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN THE MON THRU THU TIME FRAME.
TEMPS WILL BE AOA NORMAL THRU AT LEAST WED...WITH ABOVE AVG
UNCERTAINTY GOING FORWARD...DUE TO THE QUESTIONABLE LOCATION
OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS.

DALIES...

SUNDAY...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT W/ HIGH PRES MOVING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
DAY. THE GRADIENT MAY RELAX ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS S/WV IMPULSE SKIRTS
TO THE NORTH AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE APPROACH OF THE S/WV WILL LEAD TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES...BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO POPS WERE FOCUSED TO THE WEST OF I-95
WHERE BETTER FORCING SHOULD RESIDE. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS
STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT...AND MAY BE MORE FOCUSED JUST
TO OUR WEST. THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE OVERDOING VERTICAL MIXING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 20-25 KNOT
WIND GUSTS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE JUST OFFSHORE MON NIGHT WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
STATIONARY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING THE CWA MON NIGHT...SO LOW POPS CONFINED
N/W OF I-95 FOR NOW. ON TUESDAY...THE CWA IS SITUATED BETWEEN
THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER S/WV DISTURBANCE JUST
TO OUR NORTH. W/ SUCH A SETUP...COULD EASILY SEE SOME PRECIP
IN DELMARVA AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY.
HAVE LOW POPS CONFINED N/W OF I-95 FOR NOW.

WED THRU FRI...THERE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORS A STATIONARY FRONT
IN THE VICINITY AND THE MODELS ALSO ADVERTISE A WAVE OF LOW-
PRESSURE TRAVERSING THIS BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO SUFFERING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES DURING THIS PERIOD
WHICH FURTHER ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS
WPC HAS THEIR MAX QPF AXIS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HI CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT AS THE SFC
LAYER COOLS AND DECOUPLES FROM WINDS ALOFT. WLY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP
ON SATURDAY MORNING AND MAY BE SMWHT GUSTY 15 TO 20 KT AT TIMES IN
THE AFTN DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EACH
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONT RATHER LIGHT OVER THE FORECAST WATERS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. TODAYS NW FLOW WILL TURN TO THE S AND
THEN SW TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SFC TROF BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT TONIGHT WILL
BUILD SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AS SWLY WINDS INCRESE...GUSTING TO 15 OR
20KT SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL EXTEND OVER
THE WATERS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OVR THE WATERS MON NIGHT AND STALL IN THE VICINITY THRU WEDNESDAY.

THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SEAS INCREASTING...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET ATTM.

OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...AMC/FRANCK
MARINE...AMC/FRANCK





000
FXUS61 KPHI 311946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK
COLD FRONT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO CROSS OUR
REGION LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, THEN STALL OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MAY ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A RATHER PLEASANT SUMMER AFTERNOON IS UNDER WAY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS, TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S BUT DEWPTS IN THE 50S. SCT
DIURNAL CU HAVE FORMED OVER MOST OF THE AREA BUT THEY WILL THIN OUT
AND DISSIPATE TOWARDS EVENING. KDIX RADAR SHOWS A SEA BREEZE ALONG
PARTS OF THE NJ SHORE BUT IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE INLAND MUCH
AGAINST THE PREVAILING NW FLOW.

FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY UPPER 50S IN THE POCONOS
AND LOW 70S IN AND NEAR PHILADELPHIA AND NEAR THE OCEAN AND BAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT IS BROADLY CYC BUT WITHOUT NOTEWORTHY
DISTURBANCES AND THE AIRMASS CONTINUES RATHER DRY. ONCLY EXPECTED
CLOUDS ARE SOME DIURNAL CU SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE SFC PRES PATTERN
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO TODAY AS WELL SO GENLY WLY WIND SHOULD DEVELOP
IN THE MORNING AND CONT THROUGH AFTN. THE 850MB WINDS ARE FCST TO BE
SMWHT STRONGER SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE GUSTINESS WITH AFTN
MIXING. HAVE INCLUDED A SLGT CHC FOR LATE AFTN T-STORMS OVER NRN NJ
AND ADJ PA WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTBY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

OVERVIEW...

DOMINANT MID-LEVEL FEATURE THRU THE LONG-TERM PERIOD IS A CLOSED
LOW INVOF HUDSON`S BAY ALONG W/ SEVERAL S/WV DISTURBANCES MOVING
THRU IT. THIS FEATURE WILL BE MAINTAINED BY A DEVELOPING RIDGE
OVER WESTERN NOAM AND HIGH-LATITUDE BLOCKING OVER DAVIS STRAIT.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE
INDIVIDUAL S/WV IMPULSES...AND HOW THEY AFFECT THE AMPLITUDE OF
THE TROUGH...A DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK OVER NOAM SHOULD LOCK IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN THRU AT LEAST D+7. THE MOST APPARENT MODEL TRENDS
ARE TO SPEED THE TIMING OF A PRIMARY COLD FRONT THRU THE AREA ON
MON NIGHT /AS OPPOSED TO TUE NIGHT/ ...WITH THE FRONT BECOMING
STATIONARY NEAR THE NJ COAST AND DELMARVA THRU THU.

THE STALLED FRONT SOLUTION IS PLAUSIBLE...GIVEN THE MID-LEVEL
LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST THRU THE PERIOD...
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA PARALLELING
THE FRONT BY MID-WEEK. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
ECENS/GEFS MEANS...WITH OVERALL SUPPORT FROM THE INDIVIDUAL
MEMBERS AS WELL. THEREFORE...RELIED MORE HEAVILY ON THE EURO
GIVEN ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE AS WELL AS THE MORE STABLE ECENS/
GEFS MEANS...AND DISCOUNTED THE MORE PROGRESSIVE GFS AFTER
00Z THU ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MORE ROBUST NOAM BLOCKING PATTERN.

OVERALL...THE MAIN CONCERNS ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN THE MON THRU THU TIME FRAME.
TEMPS WILL BE AOA NORMAL THRU AT LEAST WED...WITH ABOVE AVG
UNCERTAINTY GOING FORWARD...DUE TO THE QUESTIONABLE LOCATION
OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS.

DALIES...

SUNDAY...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT W/ HIGH PRES MOVING IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
DAY. THE GRADIENT MAY RELAX ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

MONDAY...SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS S/WV IMPULSE SKIRTS
TO THE NORTH AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE APPROACH OF THE S/WV WILL LEAD TO STEEPER LAPSE RATES...BUT
MOISTURE IS LIMITED...SO POPS WERE FOCUSED TO THE WEST OF I-95
WHERE BETTER FORCING SHOULD RESIDE. THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS
STILL IN QUESTION AT THIS POINT...AND MAY BE MORE FOCUSED JUST
TO OUR WEST. THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE OVERDOING VERTICAL MIXING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 20-25 KNOT
WIND GUSTS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE JUST OFFSHORE MON NIGHT WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
STATIONARY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF
SHRA/TSRA CROSSING THE CWA MON NIGHT...SO LOW POPS CONFINED
N/W OF I-95 FOR NOW. ON TUESDAY...THE CWA IS SITUATED BETWEEN
THE STALLED FRONT OFFSHORE AND ANOTHER S/WV DISTURBANCE JUST
TO OUR NORTH. W/ SUCH A SETUP...COULD EASILY SEE SOME PRECIP
IN DELMARVA AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY.
HAVE LOW POPS CONFINED N/W OF I-95 FOR NOW.

WED THRU FRI...THERE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORS A STATIONARY FRONT
IN THE VICINITY AND THE MODELS ALSO ADVERTISE A WAVE OF LOW-
PRESSURE TRAVERSING THIS BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS ARE
ALSO SUFFERING CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES DURING THIS PERIOD
WHICH FURTHER ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS
WPC HAS THEIR MAX QPF AXIS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HI CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT AS THE SFC
LAYER COOLS AND DECOUPLES FROM WINDS ALOFT. WLY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP
ON SATURDAY MORNING AND MAY BE SMWHT GUSTY 15 TO 20 KT AT TIMES IN
THE AFTN DUE TO SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EACH
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONT RATHER LIGHT OVER THE FORECAST WATERS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. TODAYS NW FLOW WILL TURN TO THE S AND
THEN SW TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A SFC TROF BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD. SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT TONIGHT WILL
BUILD SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AS SWLY WINDS INCRESE...GUSTING TO 15 OR
20KT SAT AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL EXTEND OVER
THE WATERS ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OVR THE WATERS MON NIGHT AND STALL IN THE VICINITY THRU WEDNESDAY.

THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SEAS INCREASTING...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET ATTM.

OTHERWISE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...AMC/FRANCK
MARINE...AMC/FRANCK




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311336
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MUCH DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN OVER THE AREA SINCE YDA AND SFC
DEWPTS ARE ABOUT 10 DEG F LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MORNING VSBL
STLT IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKES AND A LACK OF HAZE. YDAS FRONTAL
BAND AND ASSOCD CLOUDINESS IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE. LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL PREVAIL AS WEAK HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY TODAY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, WITH THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE
THAT HOT OUTSIDE. SOME SCT AFTERNOON CU ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOTHING
MORE.

OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER FRIDAY FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TURNS INTO A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN AS WE RETAIN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT AMPLIFIES SOME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
THE NEXT ONE WHICH COULD BE STRONGER ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH
SURFACE FRONT, AND THE ACTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WE USED A MODEL BLEND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS IT RELOADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM
NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER SATURDAY,
HOWEVER LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
AIR MASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TO
EVEN HOT HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NOT
REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT /ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS/.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
HOWEVER THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME
WILL HELP PULL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SOME MUGGINESS RETURNING. SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT
HOWEVER MAY GLANCE OUR AREA, AND AS A RESULT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VARIATION IN THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND COVERAGE. WE CARRIED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW CHC FOR TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD
SLOW OR EVEN STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, ALTHOUGH AS
OF NOW THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MORE CONCENTRATED BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE /POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE COOLING THOUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR NOW IN PLACE BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FEW TO NO CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF KPHL.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME, AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AGAIN LATER MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN UNDER
5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...AMC/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA/AMC
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 311336
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MUCH DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN OVER THE AREA SINCE YDA AND SFC
DEWPTS ARE ABOUT 10 DEG F LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MORNING VSBL
STLT IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKES AND A LACK OF HAZE. YDAS FRONTAL
BAND AND ASSOCD CLOUDINESS IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE. LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL PREVAIL AS WEAK HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY TODAY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, WITH THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE
THAT HOT OUTSIDE. SOME SCT AFTERNOON CU ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOTHING
MORE.

OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER FRIDAY FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TURNS INTO A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN AS WE RETAIN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT AMPLIFIES SOME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
THE NEXT ONE WHICH COULD BE STRONGER ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH
SURFACE FRONT, AND THE ACTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WE USED A MODEL BLEND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS IT RELOADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM
NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER SATURDAY,
HOWEVER LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
AIR MASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TO
EVEN HOT HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NOT
REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT /ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS/.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
HOWEVER THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME
WILL HELP PULL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SOME MUGGINESS RETURNING. SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT
HOWEVER MAY GLANCE OUR AREA, AND AS A RESULT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VARIATION IN THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND COVERAGE. WE CARRIED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW CHC FOR TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD
SLOW OR EVEN STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, ALTHOUGH AS
OF NOW THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MORE CONCENTRATED BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE /POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE COOLING THOUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR NOW IN PLACE BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FEW TO NO CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF KPHL.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME, AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AGAIN LATER MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN UNDER
5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...AMC/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA/AMC
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311336
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MUCH DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN OVER THE AREA SINCE YDA AND SFC
DEWPTS ARE ABOUT 10 DEG F LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MORNING VSBL
STLT IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKES AND A LACK OF HAZE. YDAS FRONTAL
BAND AND ASSOCD CLOUDINESS IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE. LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL PREVAIL AS WEAK HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY TODAY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, WITH THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE
THAT HOT OUTSIDE. SOME SCT AFTERNOON CU ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOTHING
MORE.

OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER FRIDAY FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TURNS INTO A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN AS WE RETAIN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT AMPLIFIES SOME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
THE NEXT ONE WHICH COULD BE STRONGER ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH
SURFACE FRONT, AND THE ACTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WE USED A MODEL BLEND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS IT RELOADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM
NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER SATURDAY,
HOWEVER LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
AIR MASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TO
EVEN HOT HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NOT
REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT /ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS/.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
HOWEVER THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME
WILL HELP PULL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SOME MUGGINESS RETURNING. SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT
HOWEVER MAY GLANCE OUR AREA, AND AS A RESULT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VARIATION IN THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND COVERAGE. WE CARRIED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW CHC FOR TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD
SLOW OR EVEN STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, ALTHOUGH AS
OF NOW THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MORE CONCENTRATED BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE /POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE COOLING THOUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR NOW IN PLACE BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FEW TO NO CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF KPHL.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME, AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AGAIN LATER MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN UNDER
5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...AMC/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA/AMC
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 311336
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
936 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MUCH DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN OVER THE AREA SINCE YDA AND SFC
DEWPTS ARE ABOUT 10 DEG F LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. MORNING VSBL
STLT IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKES AND A LACK OF HAZE. YDAS FRONTAL
BAND AND ASSOCD CLOUDINESS IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE. LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL PREVAIL AS WEAK HIGH PRESS BUILDS IN FROM THE OH VLY TODAY.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, WITH THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE
THAT HOT OUTSIDE. SOME SCT AFTERNOON CU ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOTHING
MORE.

OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER FRIDAY FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TURNS INTO A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN AS WE RETAIN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT AMPLIFIES SOME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
THE NEXT ONE WHICH COULD BE STRONGER ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH
SURFACE FRONT, AND THE ACTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WE USED A MODEL BLEND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS IT RELOADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM
NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER SATURDAY,
HOWEVER LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
AIR MASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TO
EVEN HOT HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NOT
REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT /ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS/.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
HOWEVER THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME
WILL HELP PULL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SOME MUGGINESS RETURNING. SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT
HOWEVER MAY GLANCE OUR AREA, AND AS A RESULT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VARIATION IN THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND COVERAGE. WE CARRIED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW CHC FOR TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD
SLOW OR EVEN STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, ALTHOUGH AS
OF NOW THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MORE CONCENTRATED BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE /POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE COOLING THOUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR NOW IN PLACE BEHIND YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FEW TO NO CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF KPHL.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME, AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AGAIN LATER MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN UNDER
5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...AMC/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA/AMC
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 310752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY CAN MAKE! DRIER AIR HAS BEEN FILTERING INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING AND IT CERTAINLY FEELS GORGEOUS OUT
THERE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, WITH THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE
THAT HOT OUTSIDE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS THE CLOUDS LEAVE US FOR THE
DAY.

OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER FRIDAY FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TURNS INTO A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN AS WE RETAIN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT AMPLIFIES SOME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
THE NEXT ONE WHICH COULD BE STRONGER ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH
SURFACE FRONT, AND THE ACTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WE USED A MODEL BLEND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS IT RELOADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM
NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER SATURDAY,
HOWEVER LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
AIR MASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TO
EVEN HOT HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NOT
REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT /ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS/.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
HOWEVER THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME
WILL HELP PULL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SOME MUGGINESS RETURNING. SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT
HOWEVER MAY GLANCE OUR AREA, AND AS A RESULT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VARIATION IN THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND COVERAGE. WE CARRIED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW CHC FOR TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD
SLOW OR EVEN STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, ALTHOUGH AS
OF NOW THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MORE CONCENTRATED BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE /POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE COOLING THOUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY AT KMIV AND KACY, WHERE MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH VFR
RETURNING TO THOSE SITES AROUND 12-14Z. ELSEWHERE, DRIER AIR HAS
STARTED TO FILTER IN AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FEW TO NO CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF KPHL.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME, AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AGAIN LATER MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN UNDER
5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY CAN MAKE! DRIER AIR HAS BEEN FILTERING INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING AND IT CERTAINLY FEELS GORGEOUS OUT
THERE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, WITH THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE
THAT HOT OUTSIDE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS THE CLOUDS LEAVE US FOR THE
DAY.

OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER FRIDAY FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TURNS INTO A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN AS WE RETAIN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT AMPLIFIES SOME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
THE NEXT ONE WHICH COULD BE STRONGER ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH
SURFACE FRONT, AND THE ACTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WE USED A MODEL BLEND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS IT RELOADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM
NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER SATURDAY,
HOWEVER LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
AIR MASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TO
EVEN HOT HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NOT
REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT /ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS/.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
HOWEVER THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME
WILL HELP PULL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SOME MUGGINESS RETURNING. SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT
HOWEVER MAY GLANCE OUR AREA, AND AS A RESULT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VARIATION IN THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND COVERAGE. WE CARRIED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW CHC FOR TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD
SLOW OR EVEN STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, ALTHOUGH AS
OF NOW THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MORE CONCENTRATED BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE /POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE COOLING THOUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY AT KMIV AND KACY, WHERE MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH VFR
RETURNING TO THOSE SITES AROUND 12-14Z. ELSEWHERE, DRIER AIR HAS
STARTED TO FILTER IN AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FEW TO NO CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF KPHL.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME, AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AGAIN LATER MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN UNDER
5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 310752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY CAN MAKE! DRIER AIR HAS BEEN FILTERING INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING AND IT CERTAINLY FEELS GORGEOUS OUT
THERE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, WITH THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE
THAT HOT OUTSIDE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS THE CLOUDS LEAVE US FOR THE
DAY.

OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER FRIDAY FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TURNS INTO A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN AS WE RETAIN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT AMPLIFIES SOME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
THE NEXT ONE WHICH COULD BE STRONGER ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH
SURFACE FRONT, AND THE ACTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WE USED A MODEL BLEND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS IT RELOADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM
NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER SATURDAY,
HOWEVER LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
AIR MASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TO
EVEN HOT HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NOT
REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT /ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS/.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
HOWEVER THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME
WILL HELP PULL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SOME MUGGINESS RETURNING. SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT
HOWEVER MAY GLANCE OUR AREA, AND AS A RESULT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VARIATION IN THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND COVERAGE. WE CARRIED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW CHC FOR TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD
SLOW OR EVEN STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, ALTHOUGH AS
OF NOW THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MORE CONCENTRATED BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE /POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE COOLING THOUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY AT KMIV AND KACY, WHERE MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH VFR
RETURNING TO THOSE SITES AROUND 12-14Z. ELSEWHERE, DRIER AIR HAS
STARTED TO FILTER IN AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FEW TO NO CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF KPHL.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME, AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AGAIN LATER MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN UNDER
5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 310752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST TODAY WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL
OFFSHORE DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY CAN MAKE! DRIER AIR HAS BEEN FILTERING INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING AND IT CERTAINLY FEELS GORGEOUS OUT
THERE.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
HOWEVER, WITH THOSE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, IT WILL NOT FEEL QUITE
THAT HOT OUTSIDE. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AS THE CLOUDS LEAVE US FOR THE
DAY.

OVERALL, A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER FRIDAY FOR OUR REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE BEAUTIFUL DAY TURNS INTO A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT. DRY AIR REMAINS
ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK
THEIR WAY IN AS WE RETAIN THAT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EVENING
BEFORE IT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S TO AROUND 70 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST THAT AMPLIFIES SOME SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THEN
THE NEXT ONE WHICH COULD BE STRONGER ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BE
DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF EACH
SURFACE FRONT, AND THE ACTUAL AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT. WE USED A MODEL BLEND SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS IT RELOADS ACROSS
THE MIDWEST. A FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM
NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW
POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD AGAIN LATER SATURDAY,
HOWEVER LOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LEVELS MAY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION BY LATE SATURDAY FROM
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT
SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY
TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
AIR MASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE MAINTAINED A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM TO
EVEN HOT HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW TO NOT
REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT /ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS/.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
HOWEVER THESE LOOK TO REMAIN SEPARATED FROM THE INCOMING AMPLIFYING
TROUGH. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A TIME
WILL HELP PULL SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, RESULTING IN AT
LEAST SOME MUGGINESS RETURNING. SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
TROUGH ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT
IN SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LIFT
HOWEVER MAY GLANCE OUR AREA, AND AS A RESULT THE MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS VARIATION IN THE CONVECTIVE CHCS AND COVERAGE. WE CARRIED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS MOSTLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THEN LOW CHC FOR TUESDAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO
WEAKEN IN THE NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD
SLOW OR EVEN STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, ALTHOUGH AS
OF NOW THE OVERALL FORCING LOOKS WEAK AND MORE CONCENTRATED BACK
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH AN IMPULSE /POSSIBLY
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AS THE CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH, THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND POSSIBLE SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT. THE AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE COOLING THOUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH/LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY AT KMIV AND KACY, WHERE MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH VFR
RETURNING TO THOSE SITES AROUND 12-14Z. ELSEWHERE, DRIER AIR HAS
STARTED TO FILTER IN AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.

LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 8 TO
12 KNOTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FEW TO NO CLOUDS AROUND. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY TURNING
MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF KPHL.

SUNDAY...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING
AND THEN SUBSIDING A BIT TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS OVERALL ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY
SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO ABOUT 20
KNOTS FOR A TIME, AND THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR AGAIN LATER MONDAY AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE SEAS
AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY EXPECTING THESE TO REMAIN UNDER
5 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
908 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY, BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A
FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED PAST MOUNT POCONO AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO
BERKS CO AND LEHIGH VALLEY WITHIN ONE TO TWO HOURS. IT SHOULD
SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH DRY
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 MPH OR LESS.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NJ THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WHERE THERE WERE HIGHER RAIN TOTALS AND THE FRONT MAY BE
A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE. THEN, NEAR DAWN, THERE MAY BE SOME MORE
PATCHY RADIATION FOG IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND BERKS CO WHICH HAD
THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS IN THE AREA EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST FOR
FRIDAY. DEW POINT READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE 50S AT
MOST LOCATIONS, SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN TODAY. EVEN
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
FRIDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES EXCEPT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND AT 6 TO 12 MPH IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT
THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-
RUN OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THIS REGARD...THUS RELIED
ON THE GEFS/ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE MAIN IMPLICATION IS WITH
REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF AN OFFSHORE FRONT ON MON-TUE AND THE
TIMING OF A ANOTHER COLD FROPA ON TUE-WED.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT...W/
THE BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA NW OF I-95. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE THRU TUE AND MAY EVEN WASH OUT. AS AFORMENTIONED
S/WV ENERGY ENTERS THE EAST CONUS TROUGH... THIS WILL TURN THE
FLOW MORE MERIDIONAL...W/ TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING N. THE BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WITH ANOTHER COLD FROPA
CURRENTLY TIMED IN THE LATE TUE/EARLY WED PERIOD. OVERALL...
EARLY TRENDS /D+5 TO D+7/ INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE NJ COAST AND WASH OUT. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF A BIG
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU D+7...SO THIS SOLUTION IS
PLAUSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PARALLELS THE
FRONT AS CURRENTLY INDICATED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DALIES...

SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...
SO COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE AS WELL AS HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST THESE
STORMS PROGRESS. AN APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH WILL LEAD TO STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT POOLS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED
AROUND 1 KJ...WHILE BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE
FACTORS ARE MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
EXHIBITING AN INVERTED-V PROFILE NEAR THE SURFACE...AS WELL AS
A HEALTHY D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
     AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....AS WELL AS H50
TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY
IS ANTICIPATED.

SUN...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT W/ HIGH PRES BRIEFLY MOVING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
DAY. THE GRADIENT MAY RELAX ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

MON...SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS S/WV IMPULSE SKIRTS BY
TO THE NORTH AND A LEE TROUGH SETS UP WEST OF I-95. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...AND POPS WERE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER IS
ALSO OVER THIS AREA...W/ MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BUT MAY BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COASTLINE ON MONDAY.

TUE THRU THU...THERE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE W/ THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUE/EARLY WED. IF THE FRONT STALLS...
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THRU THU.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, PATCHY LIGHT
RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND KTTN, KRDG, KABE, KACY AND KMIV
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION, AREAS AROUND
KRDG AND KABE WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE VERY WET GROUND SETTING THE
STAGE FOR RADIATION FOG. KTTN, KMIV, AND KACY THOUGH THEY DID NOT
HAVE AS MUCH RAIN EARLIER, WILL SEE THE DRIER AIR LATER, THUS
ARE STARTING WITH LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, IF NOT SOONER.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS MAY DROP BELOW 5 KNOTS
AT SOME LOCATIONS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA MAINLY CONFINED TO ABE AND TTN.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON AND TUE...MAINLY VFR...W/ MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE TONIGHT. WITH THE
FRONT, THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO EXCEED THE WATER TEMPERATURES AND
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING IS REDUCED.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD FAVOR THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO/JOHNSON
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO/JOHNSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 310108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
908 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY, BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A
FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED PAST MOUNT POCONO AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO
BERKS CO AND LEHIGH VALLEY WITHIN ONE TO TWO HOURS. IT SHOULD
SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH DRY
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 MPH OR LESS.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NJ THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WHERE THERE WERE HIGHER RAIN TOTALS AND THE FRONT MAY BE
A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE. THEN, NEAR DAWN, THERE MAY BE SOME MORE
PATCHY RADIATION FOG IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND BERKS CO WHICH HAD
THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS IN THE AREA EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST FOR
FRIDAY. DEW POINT READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE 50S AT
MOST LOCATIONS, SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN TODAY. EVEN
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
FRIDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES EXCEPT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND AT 6 TO 12 MPH IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT
THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-
RUN OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THIS REGARD...THUS RELIED
ON THE GEFS/ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE MAIN IMPLICATION IS WITH
REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF AN OFFSHORE FRONT ON MON-TUE AND THE
TIMING OF A ANOTHER COLD FROPA ON TUE-WED.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT...W/
THE BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA NW OF I-95. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE THRU TUE AND MAY EVEN WASH OUT. AS AFORMENTIONED
S/WV ENERGY ENTERS THE EAST CONUS TROUGH... THIS WILL TURN THE
FLOW MORE MERIDIONAL...W/ TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING N. THE BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WITH ANOTHER COLD FROPA
CURRENTLY TIMED IN THE LATE TUE/EARLY WED PERIOD. OVERALL...
EARLY TRENDS /D+5 TO D+7/ INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE NJ COAST AND WASH OUT. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF A BIG
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU D+7...SO THIS SOLUTION IS
PLAUSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PARALLELS THE
FRONT AS CURRENTLY INDICATED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DALIES...

SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...
SO COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE AS WELL AS HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST THESE
STORMS PROGRESS. AN APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH WILL LEAD TO STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT POOLS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED
AROUND 1 KJ...WHILE BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE
FACTORS ARE MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
EXHIBITING AN INVERTED-V PROFILE NEAR THE SURFACE...AS WELL AS
A HEALTHY D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
     AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....AS WELL AS H50
TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY
IS ANTICIPATED.

SUN...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT W/ HIGH PRES BRIEFLY MOVING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
DAY. THE GRADIENT MAY RELAX ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

MON...SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS S/WV IMPULSE SKIRTS BY
TO THE NORTH AND A LEE TROUGH SETS UP WEST OF I-95. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...AND POPS WERE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER IS
ALSO OVER THIS AREA...W/ MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BUT MAY BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COASTLINE ON MONDAY.

TUE THRU THU...THERE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE W/ THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUE/EARLY WED. IF THE FRONT STALLS...
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THRU THU.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, PATCHY LIGHT
RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND KTTN, KRDG, KABE, KACY AND KMIV
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION, AREAS AROUND
KRDG AND KABE WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE VERY WET GROUND SETTING THE
STAGE FOR RADIATION FOG. KTTN, KMIV, AND KACY THOUGH THEY DID NOT
HAVE AS MUCH RAIN EARLIER, WILL SEE THE DRIER AIR LATER, THUS
ARE STARTING WITH LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, IF NOT SOONER.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS MAY DROP BELOW 5 KNOTS
AT SOME LOCATIONS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA MAINLY CONFINED TO ABE AND TTN.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON AND TUE...MAINLY VFR...W/ MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE TONIGHT. WITH THE
FRONT, THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO EXCEED THE WATER TEMPERATURES AND
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING IS REDUCED.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD FAVOR THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO/JOHNSON
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY, BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A
FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD REACHED THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR IN OUR REGION AT 330 PM. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND IT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIPITATION PASSES.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESULTED IN A DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE CANCELLED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS TRAILING THE PRECIPITATION. IT WAS LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK, CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA AT MID AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT, BETWEEN ABOUT 1000 PM AND 200 AM.

CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP
INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST FOR
FRIDAY. DEW POINT READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE 50S AT
MOST LOCATIONS, SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN TODAY. EVEN
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
FRIDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES EXCEPT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND AT 6 TO 12 MPH IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT
THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-
RUN OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THIS REGARD...THUS RELIED
ON THE GEFS/ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE MAIN IMPLICATION IS WITH
REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF AN OFFSHORE FRONT ON MON-TUE AND THE
TIMING OF A ANOTHER COLD FROPA ON TUE-WED.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT...W/
THE BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA NW OF I-95. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE THRU TUE AND MAY EVEN WASH OUT. AS AFORMENTIONED
S/WV ENERGY ENTERS THE EAST CONUS TROUGH... THIS WILL TURN THE
FLOW MORE MERIDIONAL...W/ TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING N. THE BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WITH ANOTHER COLD FROPA
CURRENTLY TIMED IN THE LATE TUE/EARLY WED PERIOD. OVERALL...
EARLY TRENDS /D+5 TO D+7/ INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE NJ COAST AND WASH OUT. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF A BIG
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU D+7...SO THIS SOLUTION IS
PLAUSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PARALLELS THE
FRONT AS CURRENTLY INDICATED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DALIES...

SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...
SO COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE AS WELL AS HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST THESE
STORMS PROGRESS. AN APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH WILL LEAD TO STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT POOLS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED
AROUND 1 KJ...WHILE BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE
FACTORS ARE MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
EXHIBITING AN INVERTED-V PROFILE NEAR THE SURFACE...AS WELL AS
A HEALTHY D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
...AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....AS WELL AS H50
TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY
IS ANTICIPATED.

SUN...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT W/ HIGH PRES BRIEFLY MOVING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
DAY. THE GRADIENT MAY RELAX ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

MON...SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS S/WV IMPULSE SKIRTS BY
TO THE NORTH AND A LEE TROUGH SETS UP WEST OF I-95. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...AND POPS WERE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER IS
ALSO OVER THIS AREA...W/ MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BUT MAY BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COASTLINE ON MONDAY.

TUE THRU THU...THERE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE W/ THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUE/EARLY WED. IF THE FRONT STALLS...
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THRU THU.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS AFFECTING KTTN, KPNE, KPHL
AND KILG AROUND 1930Z. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND KRDG,
KABE AND KMIV LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS MAY DROP BELOW 5 KNOTS
AT SOME LOCATIONS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA MAINLY CONFINED TO ABE AND TTN.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON AND TUE...MAINLY VFR...W/ MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY ON TUE.


&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE TONIGHT.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ON OUR WATERS OFF MONMOUTH COUNTY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
THEY SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
DECREASE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO EXCEED THE
WATER TEMPERATURES AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING IS REDUCED.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD FAVOR THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH A WAVE PERIOD OF 8 TO 10 SECONDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY, BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A
FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD REACHED THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR IN OUR REGION AT 330 PM. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND IT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIPITATION PASSES.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESULTED IN A DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE CANCELLED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS TRAILING THE PRECIPITATION. IT WAS LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK, CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA AT MID AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT, BETWEEN ABOUT 1000 PM AND 200 AM.

CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP
INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST FOR
FRIDAY. DEW POINT READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE 50S AT
MOST LOCATIONS, SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN TODAY. EVEN
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
FRIDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES EXCEPT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND AT 6 TO 12 MPH IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT
THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-
RUN OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THIS REGARD...THUS RELIED
ON THE GEFS/ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE MAIN IMPLICATION IS WITH
REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF AN OFFSHORE FRONT ON MON-TUE AND THE
TIMING OF A ANOTHER COLD FROPA ON TUE-WED.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT...W/
THE BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA NW OF I-95. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE THRU TUE AND MAY EVEN WASH OUT. AS AFORMENTIONED
S/WV ENERGY ENTERS THE EAST CONUS TROUGH... THIS WILL TURN THE
FLOW MORE MERIDIONAL...W/ TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING N. THE BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WITH ANOTHER COLD FROPA
CURRENTLY TIMED IN THE LATE TUE/EARLY WED PERIOD. OVERALL...
EARLY TRENDS /D+5 TO D+7/ INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE NJ COAST AND WASH OUT. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF A BIG
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU D+7...SO THIS SOLUTION IS
PLAUSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PARALLELS THE
FRONT AS CURRENTLY INDICATED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DALIES...

SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...
SO COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE AS WELL AS HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST THESE
STORMS PROGRESS. AN APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH WILL LEAD TO STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT POOLS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED
AROUND 1 KJ...WHILE BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE
FACTORS ARE MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
EXHIBITING AN INVERTED-V PROFILE NEAR THE SURFACE...AS WELL AS
A HEALTHY D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
...AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....AS WELL AS H50
TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY
IS ANTICIPATED.

SUN...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT W/ HIGH PRES BRIEFLY MOVING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
DAY. THE GRADIENT MAY RELAX ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

MON...SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS S/WV IMPULSE SKIRTS BY
TO THE NORTH AND A LEE TROUGH SETS UP WEST OF I-95. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...AND POPS WERE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER IS
ALSO OVER THIS AREA...W/ MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BUT MAY BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COASTLINE ON MONDAY.

TUE THRU THU...THERE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE W/ THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUE/EARLY WED. IF THE FRONT STALLS...
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THRU THU.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS AFFECTING KTTN, KPNE, KPHL
AND KILG AROUND 1930Z. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND KRDG,
KABE AND KMIV LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS MAY DROP BELOW 5 KNOTS
AT SOME LOCATIONS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA MAINLY CONFINED TO ABE AND TTN.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON AND TUE...MAINLY VFR...W/ MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY ON TUE.


&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE TONIGHT.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ON OUR WATERS OFF MONMOUTH COUNTY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
THEY SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
DECREASE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO EXCEED THE
WATER TEMPERATURES AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING IS REDUCED.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD FAVOR THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH A WAVE PERIOD OF 8 TO 10 SECONDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO





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