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000
FXUS61 KPHI 021328
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
928 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN, A STRONG COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH
POTENT LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO, WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY, THEN A SERIES OF IMPULSES
LOOK TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST ESTF UPDATE MAINLY TO ADJUST LOW POPS AND SKY COVER BASED
ON LATEST DATA AND TREND. SLIGHTLY MORE OFFSHORE POPS AND ENDING
SOONER. WITH CLOUDS INDICATING MORE OF AN EARLY BREAK SOUTHWEST
AS THE STRATOCU DECK HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE IN PLUS THE INCREASING
SUNSHINE AND THE LOW PULLING FARTHER OFFSHORE WILL WORK AGAINST
THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTION CONTINUING FOR MUCH LONGER. CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE STILL WITHIN REACH BASED ON THE MORNING SOUNDINGS, SO
SOME SELF DESTRUCT SUN WILL BE OCCURRING THERE. MORNING SOUNDINGS
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS OFF THOSE SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTING CURRENT
PREDICTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.


OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SPIN IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.

MARINE LAYER AND STRATOCU HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE PAST 30 HOURS AS A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
LOW HAS DRAWN COOL/MOIST AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND.
THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
THERE SHOULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEE MORE APPRECIABLE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND WEST OF PHILLY LATER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, DEEPER MIXING AT THESE SUNNIER LOCATIONS WILL RESULT IN
REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ANY LINGERING PRECIP NEAR THE COAST WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID
MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA.

FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER 60S
ALONG THE NJ COAST (WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING) AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW NJ AND THE POCONOS.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR PHILLY AND POINTS SOUTH
AND WEST (WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE
MID 70S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT. RIDGE
BUILDING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
WESTERN SUBURBS OF PHILLY WHERE THE SFC-925 MB RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS, MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED UNDER LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW. ACCORDINGLY, COASTAL LOCATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING STRATUS RETURN LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHWEST NJ/NORTHEAST PA TO NEAR 60S ALONG THE NJ AND DE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER ERN CANADA WILL RIDGE DOWN WWD ON FRI AND THIS
FEATURE COUPLED WITH LOW PRES OVER THE OPEN ATLC WILL KEEP ELY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THIS TAKES PLACE, A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING NR THE GRTLKS AND MOVG INTO ONTARIO.

THE MDLS STILL DIFFER A BIT IN THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LOW WITH ITS ULTIMATE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH, BUT AGREE ON THE OVERALL
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.

THE POTENT CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL EXTEND FAR S FROM THIS
LOW AND WILL WORK ITS WAY FROM W TO E FROM FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

FRI DURG THE DAY SHUD BE DRY WITH PRECIP STILL TO THE W. DURG THE
EVE HOURS PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE W AND BY DAYBREAK
SAT PRECIP CHCS WILL EXIST EVERYWHERE, WITH THE BEST CHCS FROM THE
I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W.

THERE IS VERY GOOD DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT AND NEG TILTED TROF AND
THE GLFMEX IS OPEN SO THE THREAT OF HVY RAIN IS THERE. HOWEVER,
ANTECEDENT CONDS HAVE BEEN DRY.

DURG THE MRNG HOURS OF SAT SEEMS TO BE THE BEST SHOT OF RAIN FOR
MOST OF US, WITH THE CFP LATE MRNG ERLY AFTN DEPENDING ON
LOCATION, AND PRECIP COMING TO AND END BEHIND THE FROPA FROM SW TO
NE. THE SECOND HALF OF SAT SHOULD BE BETTER THAN THE FIRST.

THEN SAT NIGHT THRU MON LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
S AND SPREADS NEWD.

STRONG CAA MOVES IN SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT WILL BE A
BIT BREEZY. WE WILL HAVE OUR FIRST TRUE TOUCH OF FALL WITH TEMPS
NOT HITTING 60 IN MANY AREAS ON SUN AND ANY WIND MAKING IT FEEL
COOLER.  THE WIND SHUD DECREASE DURG THE DAY.

BEYOND MON, A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOTS OF PRECIP THRU MIDWEEK WITH THE MDLS DIFFERING ON THE S/WV
DETAILS WHICH ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME SCALE.
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDD BEYOND MON NIGHT AS THE
ECMWF WAS DELAYED IN ITS ARRIVAL, AND COULD NOT ANALYZE IT IN TIME
FOR THE FCST ISSUANCE.

TEMPS WILL START OUT NR NRML AND END NR NRML AFTER A SIGNIFICANT
DROP WITH THE CFP OVER THE WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CIGS AT MOST TERMINALS AROUND 2-3 KFT SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
VFR BETWEEN 14-17Z ALTHOUGH MVFR MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTN
AT ACY WHERE MARINE LAYER IS MOST ESTABLISHED. N-NE WINDS AROUND 5
KT AT SUNRISE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTN.

VFR EXPECTED THIS EVE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP AGAIN BETWEEN 06Z-12Z FRIDAY. FOR THE 12Z TAFS, KEPT
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR NOW AT KPHL SINCE THE END OF THE
30-HR FORECAST COVERS THIS TIME WINDOW.


OUTLOOK...
FRI...MOSTLY VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM W TO E AND MVFR/IFR IN
PERIODS OF RAIN, SOME OF IT HEAVY. E TO SE WIND. MDT TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SAT...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN RAIN, SOME OF IT HEAVY, THEN BECOMING VFR
WITH RAIN ENDING FROM SW TO NE. CFP AND WSHFT FROM E TO WNW. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

SUN-MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WIND SUN. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE WAS A CHANGE TO THE HEADLINE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT,
CONVERTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 25 KT DURING THIS TIME BUT SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 5-6 FT.


OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCA CONDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON OUR WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
AND SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS PERSISTENT SELY
FLOW CONTINUES. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 FEET. COULD BE
MARGINAL.

SAT...STRONG CFP. WSHFT BACK TOWARDS THE WNW LATER IN THE DAY
BEHIND THE FROPA. A GUSTY WIND IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT, THEN THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE Y PICK UP AGAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CAA. SCA SEEMS LIKELY. GUSTY WINDS ALSO
PSBL IN THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN THE MORNING.

SUN...GUSTY NW WIND WILL CONTINUE BEFORE SUBSIDING DURG THE MRNG.
SEAS SHOULD ALSO DROP BELOW SCA CONDS TO AROUND 3-4 FEET.

MON...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN POSITIVE TIDAL
DEPARTURES BETWEEN 1-1.5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT
ANOMALIES TO INCREASE MUCH TODAY AS THE ONSHORE WINDS SUBSIDE A
BIT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TIDES BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD
FOR HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTION WITH
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LATEST OFS GUIDANCE
INDICATES TIDAL LEVELS NEAR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLD BY
SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KLEIN







000
FXUS61 KPHI 021057
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
657 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN, A STRONG COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH
POTENT LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO, WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY, THEN A SERIES OF IMPULSES
LOOK TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SPIN IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.

MARINE LAYER AND STRATOCU HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE PAST 30 HOURS AS A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
LOW HAS DRAWN COOL/MOIST AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND.
THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
THERE SHOULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEE MORE APPRECIABLE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND WEST OF PHILLY LATER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, DEEPER MIXING AT THESE SUNNIER LOCATIONS WILL RESULT IN
REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE BULK OF THE LIFT WITH THE LOW WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND OVER NEW
ENGLAND, BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST. ANY LINGERING PRECIP
NEAR THE COAST WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA.

FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER 60S
ALONG THE NJ COAST (WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING) AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW NJ AND THE POCONOS.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR PHILLY AND POINTS SOUTH
AND WEST (WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE
MID 70S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT. RIDGE
BUILDING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
WESTERN SUBURBS OF PHILLY WHERE THE SFC-925 MB RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS, MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED UNDER LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW. ACCORDINGLY, COASTAL LOCATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING STRATUS RETURN LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHWEST NJ/NORTHEAST PA TO NEAR 60S ALONG THE NJ AND DE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER ERN CANADA WILL RIDGE DOWN WWD ON FRI AND THIS
FEATURE COUPLED WITH LOW PRES OVER THE OPEN ATLC WILL KEEP ELY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THIS TAKES PLACE, A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING NR THE GRTLKS AND MOVG INTO ONTARIO.

THE MDLS STILL DIFFER A BIT IN THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LOW WITH ITS ULTIMATE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH, BUT AGREE ON THE OVERALL
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.

THE POTENT CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL EXTEND FAR S FROM THIS
LOW AND WILL WORK ITS WAY FROM W TO E FROM FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

FRI DURG THE DAY SHUD BE DRY WITH PRECIP STILL TO THE W. DURG THE
EVE HOURS PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE W AND BY DAYBREAK
SAT PRECIP CHCS WILL EXIST EVERYWHERE, WITH THE BEST CHCS FROM THE
I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W.

THERE IS VERY GOOD DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT AND NEG TILTED TROF AND
THE GLFMEX IS OPEN SO THE THREAT OF HVY RAIN IS THERE. HOWEVER,
ANTECEDENT CONDS HAVE BEEN DRY.

DURG THE MRNG HOURS OF SAT SEEMS TO BE THE BEST SHOT OF RAIN FOR
MOST OF US, WITH THE CFP LATE MRNG ERLY AFTN DEPENDING ON
LOCATION, AND PRECIP COMING TO AND END BEHIND THE FROPA FROM SW TO
NE. THE SECOND HALF OF SAT SHOULD BE BETTER THAN THE FIRST.

THEN SAT NIGHT THRU MON LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
S AND SPREADS NEWD.

STRONG CAA MOVES IN SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT WILL BE A
BIT BREEZY. WE WILL HAVE OUR FIRST TRUE TOUCH OF FALL WITH TEMPS
NOT HITTING 60 IN MANY AREAS ON SUN AND ANY WIND MAKING IT FEEL
COOLER.  THE WIND SHUD DECREASE DURG THE DAY.

BEYOND MON, A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOTS OF PRECIP THRU MIDWEEK WITH THE MDLS DIFFERING ON THE S/WV
DETAILS WHICH ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME SCALE.
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDD BEYOND MON NIGHT AS THE
ECMWF WAS DELAYED IN ITS ARRIVAL, AND COULD NOT ANALYZE IT IN TIME
FOR THE FCST ISSUANCE.

TEMPS WILL START OUT NR NRML AND END NR NRML AFTER A SIGNIFICANT
DROP WITH THE CFP OVER THE WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MARINE STRATOCU PERSISTS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS
HAVE TAKEN A BIT LONGER TO LOWER TO MVFR SOUTH AND WEST OF ABE-TTN.
STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS BY 09Z. CIGS
AROUND 2-3 KFT SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14-17Z ALTHOUGH
MVFR MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTN AT ACY WHERE MARINE LAYER IS
MOST ESTABLISHED. N-NE WINDS AROUND 5 KT AT SUNRISE WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTN.

VFR EXPECTED THIS EVE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP AGAIN BETWEEN 06Z-12Z FRIDAY. FOR THE 06Z TAFS, KEPT
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR NOW AT KPHL SINCE THE END OF THE
30-HR FORECAST COVERS THIS TIME WINDOW.


OUTLOOK...
FRI...MOSTLY VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM W TO E AND MVFR/IFR IN
PERIODS OF RAIN, SOME OF IT HEAVY. E TO SE WIND. MDT TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SAT...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN RAIN, SOME OF IT HEAVY, THEN BECOMING VFR
WITH RAIN ENDING FROM SW TO NE. CFP AND WSHFT FROM E TO WNW. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

SUN-MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WIND SUN. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
HERE WAS A CHANGE TO THE HEADLINE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT,
CONVERTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 25 KT DURING THIS TIME BUT SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 5-6 FT.


OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCA CONDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON OUR WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
AND SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS PERSISTENT SELY
FLOW CONTINUES. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 FEET. COULD BE
MARGINAL.

SAT...STRONG CFP. WSHFT BACK TOWARDS THE WNW LATER IN THE DAY
BEHIND THE FROPA. A GUSTY WIND IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT, THEN THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE Y PICK UP AGAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CAA. SCA SEEMS LIKELY. GUSTY WINDS ALSO
PSBL IN THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN THE MORNING.

SUN...GUSTY NW WIND WILL CONTINUE BEFORE SUBSIDING DURG THE MRNG.
SEAS SHOULD ALSO DROP BELOW SCA CONDS TO AROUND 3-4 FEET.

MON...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN POSITIVE TIDAL
DEPARTURES BETWEEN 1-1.5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT
ANOMALIES TO INCREASE MUCH TODAY AS THE ONSHORE WINDS SUBSIDE A
BIT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TIDES BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD
FOR HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTION WITH
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LATEST OFS GUIDANCE
INDICATES TIDAL LEVELS NEAR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLD BY
SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KLEIN







000
FXUS61 KPHI 021057
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
657 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN, A STRONG COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH
POTENT LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO, WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY, THEN A SERIES OF IMPULSES
LOOK TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SPIN IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.

MARINE LAYER AND STRATOCU HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE PAST 30 HOURS AS A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
LOW HAS DRAWN COOL/MOIST AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND.
THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
THERE SHOULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEE MORE APPRECIABLE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND WEST OF PHILLY LATER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, DEEPER MIXING AT THESE SUNNIER LOCATIONS WILL RESULT IN
REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE BULK OF THE LIFT WITH THE LOW WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND OVER NEW
ENGLAND, BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST. ANY LINGERING PRECIP
NEAR THE COAST WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA.

FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER 60S
ALONG THE NJ COAST (WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING) AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW NJ AND THE POCONOS.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR PHILLY AND POINTS SOUTH
AND WEST (WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE
MID 70S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT. RIDGE
BUILDING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
WESTERN SUBURBS OF PHILLY WHERE THE SFC-925 MB RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS, MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED UNDER LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW. ACCORDINGLY, COASTAL LOCATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING STRATUS RETURN LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHWEST NJ/NORTHEAST PA TO NEAR 60S ALONG THE NJ AND DE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER ERN CANADA WILL RIDGE DOWN WWD ON FRI AND THIS
FEATURE COUPLED WITH LOW PRES OVER THE OPEN ATLC WILL KEEP ELY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THIS TAKES PLACE, A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING NR THE GRTLKS AND MOVG INTO ONTARIO.

THE MDLS STILL DIFFER A BIT IN THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LOW WITH ITS ULTIMATE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH, BUT AGREE ON THE OVERALL
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.

THE POTENT CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL EXTEND FAR S FROM THIS
LOW AND WILL WORK ITS WAY FROM W TO E FROM FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

FRI DURG THE DAY SHUD BE DRY WITH PRECIP STILL TO THE W. DURG THE
EVE HOURS PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE W AND BY DAYBREAK
SAT PRECIP CHCS WILL EXIST EVERYWHERE, WITH THE BEST CHCS FROM THE
I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W.

THERE IS VERY GOOD DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT AND NEG TILTED TROF AND
THE GLFMEX IS OPEN SO THE THREAT OF HVY RAIN IS THERE. HOWEVER,
ANTECEDENT CONDS HAVE BEEN DRY.

DURG THE MRNG HOURS OF SAT SEEMS TO BE THE BEST SHOT OF RAIN FOR
MOST OF US, WITH THE CFP LATE MRNG ERLY AFTN DEPENDING ON
LOCATION, AND PRECIP COMING TO AND END BEHIND THE FROPA FROM SW TO
NE. THE SECOND HALF OF SAT SHOULD BE BETTER THAN THE FIRST.

THEN SAT NIGHT THRU MON LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
S AND SPREADS NEWD.

STRONG CAA MOVES IN SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT WILL BE A
BIT BREEZY. WE WILL HAVE OUR FIRST TRUE TOUCH OF FALL WITH TEMPS
NOT HITTING 60 IN MANY AREAS ON SUN AND ANY WIND MAKING IT FEEL
COOLER.  THE WIND SHUD DECREASE DURG THE DAY.

BEYOND MON, A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOTS OF PRECIP THRU MIDWEEK WITH THE MDLS DIFFERING ON THE S/WV
DETAILS WHICH ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME SCALE.
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDD BEYOND MON NIGHT AS THE
ECMWF WAS DELAYED IN ITS ARRIVAL, AND COULD NOT ANALYZE IT IN TIME
FOR THE FCST ISSUANCE.

TEMPS WILL START OUT NR NRML AND END NR NRML AFTER A SIGNIFICANT
DROP WITH THE CFP OVER THE WKND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MARINE STRATOCU PERSISTS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS
HAVE TAKEN A BIT LONGER TO LOWER TO MVFR SOUTH AND WEST OF ABE-TTN.
STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS BY 09Z. CIGS
AROUND 2-3 KFT SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14-17Z ALTHOUGH
MVFR MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTN AT ACY WHERE MARINE LAYER IS
MOST ESTABLISHED. N-NE WINDS AROUND 5 KT AT SUNRISE WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTN.

VFR EXPECTED THIS EVE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP AGAIN BETWEEN 06Z-12Z FRIDAY. FOR THE 06Z TAFS, KEPT
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR NOW AT KPHL SINCE THE END OF THE
30-HR FORECAST COVERS THIS TIME WINDOW.


OUTLOOK...
FRI...MOSTLY VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM W TO E AND MVFR/IFR IN
PERIODS OF RAIN, SOME OF IT HEAVY. E TO SE WIND. MDT TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SAT...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN RAIN, SOME OF IT HEAVY, THEN BECOMING VFR
WITH RAIN ENDING FROM SW TO NE. CFP AND WSHFT FROM E TO WNW. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

SUN-MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WIND SUN. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
HERE WAS A CHANGE TO THE HEADLINE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT,
CONVERTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 25 KT DURING THIS TIME BUT SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 5-6 FT.


OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCA CONDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON OUR WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
AND SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS PERSISTENT SELY
FLOW CONTINUES. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 FEET. COULD BE
MARGINAL.

SAT...STRONG CFP. WSHFT BACK TOWARDS THE WNW LATER IN THE DAY
BEHIND THE FROPA. A GUSTY WIND IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT, THEN THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE Y PICK UP AGAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CAA. SCA SEEMS LIKELY. GUSTY WINDS ALSO
PSBL IN THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN THE MORNING.

SUN...GUSTY NW WIND WILL CONTINUE BEFORE SUBSIDING DURG THE MRNG.
SEAS SHOULD ALSO DROP BELOW SCA CONDS TO AROUND 3-4 FEET.

MON...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN POSITIVE TIDAL
DEPARTURES BETWEEN 1-1.5 FT EARLY THIS MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT
ANOMALIES TO INCREASE MUCH TODAY AS THE ONSHORE WINDS SUBSIDE A
BIT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TIDES BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD
FOR HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL PREDICTION WITH
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LATEST OFS GUIDANCE
INDICATES TIDAL LEVELS NEAR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLD BY
SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KLEIN








000
FXUS61 KPHI 020756
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN, A STRONG COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH
POTENT LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO, WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY, THEN A SERIES OF IMPULSES
LOOK TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SPIN IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.

MARINE LAYER AND STRATOCU HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE PAST 30 HOURS AS A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
LOW HAS DRAWN COOL/MOIST AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND.
THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
THERE SHOULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEE MORE APPRECIABLE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND WEST OF PHILLY LATER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, DEEPER MIXING AT THESE SUNNIER LOCATIONS WILL RESULT IN
REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE BULK OF THE LIFT WITH THE LOW WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND OVER NEW
ENGLAND, BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST. ANY LINGERING PRECIP
NEAR THE COAST WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA.

FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER 60S
ALONG THE NJ COAST (WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING) AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW NJ AND THE POCONOS.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR PHILLY AND POINTS SOUTH
AND WEST (WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE
MID 70S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT. RIDGE
BUILDING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
WESTERN SUBURBS OF PHILLY WHERE THE SFC-925 MB RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS, MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED UNDER LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW. ACCORDINGLY, COASTAL LOCATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING STRATUS RETURN LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHWEST NJ/NORTHEAST PA TO NEAR 60S ALONG THE NJ AND DE COAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER ERN CANADA WILL RIDGE DOWN WWD ON FRI AND THIS
FEATURE COUPLED WITH LOW PRES OVER THE OPEN ATLC WILL KEEP ELY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THIS TAKES PLACE, A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING NR THE GRTLKS AND MOVG INTO ONTARIO.

THE MDLS STILL DIFFER A BIT IN THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LOW WITH ITS ULTIMATE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH, BUT AGREE ON THE OVERALL
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.

THE POTENT CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL EXTEND FAR S FROM THIS
LOW AND WILL WORK ITS WAY FROM W TO E FROM FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

FRI DURG THE DAY SHUD BE DRY WITH PRECIP STILL TO THE W. DURG THE
EVE HOURS PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE W AND BY DAYBREAK
SAT PRECIP CHCS WILL EXIST EVERYWHERE, WITH THE BEST CHCS FROM THE
I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W.

THERE IS VERY GOOD DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT AND NEG TILTED TROF AND
THE GLFMEX IS OPEN SO THE THREAT OF HVY RAIN IS THERE. HOWEVER,
ANTECEDENT CONDS HAVE BEEN DRY.

DURG THE MRNG HOURS OF SAT SEEMS TO BE THE BEST SHOT OF RAIN FOR
MOST OF US, WITH THE CFP LATE MRNG ERLY AFTN DEPENDING ON
LOCATION, AND PRECIP COMING TO AND END BEHIND THE FROPA FROM SW TO
NE. THE SECOND HALF OF SAT SHOULD BE BETTER THAN THE FIRST.

THEN SAT NIGHT THRU MON LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
S AND SPREADS NEWD.

STRONG CAA MOVES IN SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT WILL BE A
BIT BREEZY. WE WILL HAVE OUR FIRST TRUE TOUCH OF FALL WITH TEMPS
NOT HITTING 60 IN MANY AREAS ON SUN AND ANY WIND MAKING IT FEEL
COOLER.  THE WIND SHUD DECREASE DURG THE DAY.

BEYOND MON, A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOTS OF PRECIP THRU MIDWEEK WITH THE MDLS DIFFERING ON THE S/WV
DETAILS WHICH ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME SCALE.
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDD BEYOND MON NIGHT AS THE
ECMWF WAS DELAYED IN ITS ARRIVAL, AND COULD NOT ANALYZE IT IN TIME
FOR THE FCST ISSUANCE.

TEMPS WILL START OUT NR NRML AND END NR NRML AFTER A SIGNIFICANT
DROP WITH THE CFP OVER THE WKND.



&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MARINE STRATOCU PERSISTS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS
HAVE TAKEN A BIT LONGER TO LOWER TO MVFR SOUTH AND WEST OF ABE-TTN.
STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS BY 09Z. CIGS
AROUND 2-3 KFT SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14-17Z ALTHOUGH
MVFR MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTN AT ACY WHERE MARINE LAYER IS
MOST ESTABLISHED. N-NE WINDS AROUND 5 KT AT SUNRISE WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTN.

VFR EXPECTED THIS EVE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP AGAIN BETWEEN 06Z-12Z FRIDAY. FOR THE 06Z TAFS, KEPT
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR NOW AT KPHL SINCE THE END OF THE
30-HR FORECAST COVERS THIS TIME WINDOW.


OUTLOOK...
FRI...MOSTLY VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM W TO E AND MVFR/IFR IN
PERIODS OF RAIN, SOME OF IT HEAVY. E TO SE WIND. MDT TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SAT...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN RAIN, SOME OF IT HEAVY, THEN BECOMING VFR
WITH RAIN ENDING FROM SW TO NE. CFP AND WSHFT FROM E TO WNW. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

SUN-MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WIND SUN. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
HERE WAS A CHANGE TO THE HEADLINE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT,
CONVERTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 25 KT DURING THIS TIME BUT SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 5-6 FT.


OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCA CONDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON OUR WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
AND SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS PERSISTENT SELY
FLOW CONTINUES. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 FEET. COULD BE
MARGINAL.

SAT...STRONG CFP. WSHFT BACK TOWARDS THE WNW LATER IN THE DAY
BEHIND THE FROPA. A GUSTY WIND IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT, THEN THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE Y PICK UP AGAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CAA. SCA SEEMS LIKELY. GUSTY WINDS ALSO
PSBL IN THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN THE MORNING.

SUN...GUSTY NW WIND WILL CONTINUE BEFORE SUBSIDING DURG THE MRNG.
SEAS SHOULD ALSO DROP BELOW SCA CONDS TO AROUND 3-4 FEET.

MON...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN POSITIVE TIDAL
DEPARTURES BETWEEN 1-1.25 FT. DO NOT EXPECT ANOMALIES TO INCREASE
MUCH TODAY AS THE ONSHORE WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
TIDES BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD FOR THIS MORNING`S AND
TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
         FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KLEIN








000
FXUS61 KPHI 020756
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN, A STRONG COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH
POTENT LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO, WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY, THEN A SERIES OF IMPULSES
LOOK TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SPIN IN THE
ATMOSPHERE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY.

MARINE LAYER AND STRATOCU HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE PAST 30 HOURS AS A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
LOW HAS DRAWN COOL/MOIST AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE INLAND.
THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
THERE SHOULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO SEE MORE APPRECIABLE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, PARTICULARLY SOUTH AND WEST OF PHILLY LATER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, DEEPER MIXING AT THESE SUNNIER LOCATIONS WILL RESULT IN
REDEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE BULK OF THE LIFT WITH THE LOW WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND OVER NEW
ENGLAND, BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR THE COAST. ANY LINGERING PRECIP
NEAR THE COAST WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MID MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA.

FORECAST MAX TEMPS ARE IN THE 70S TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE UPPER 60S
ALONG THE NJ COAST (WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING) AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW NJ AND THE POCONOS.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR PHILLY AND POINTS SOUTH
AND WEST (WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE
MID 70S).

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST TONIGHT. RIDGE
BUILDING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
WESTERN SUBURBS OF PHILLY WHERE THE SFC-925 MB RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED OVERHEAD. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS, MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED UNDER LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW. ACCORDINGLY, COASTAL LOCATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING STRATUS RETURN LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST MIN TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHWEST NJ/NORTHEAST PA TO NEAR 60S ALONG THE NJ AND DE COAST.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER ERN CANADA WILL RIDGE DOWN WWD ON FRI AND THIS
FEATURE COUPLED WITH LOW PRES OVER THE OPEN ATLC WILL KEEP ELY
FLOW OVER THE REGION. AS THIS TAKES PLACE, A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING NR THE GRTLKS AND MOVG INTO ONTARIO.

THE MDLS STILL DIFFER A BIT IN THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LOW WITH ITS ULTIMATE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH, BUT AGREE ON THE OVERALL
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.

THE POTENT CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL EXTEND FAR S FROM THIS
LOW AND WILL WORK ITS WAY FROM W TO E FROM FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.

FRI DURG THE DAY SHUD BE DRY WITH PRECIP STILL TO THE W. DURG THE
EVE HOURS PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE W AND BY DAYBREAK
SAT PRECIP CHCS WILL EXIST EVERYWHERE, WITH THE BEST CHCS FROM THE
I-95 CORRIDOR N AND W.

THERE IS VERY GOOD DYNAMICS WITH THIS FRONT AND NEG TILTED TROF AND
THE GLFMEX IS OPEN SO THE THREAT OF HVY RAIN IS THERE. HOWEVER,
ANTECEDENT CONDS HAVE BEEN DRY.

DURG THE MRNG HOURS OF SAT SEEMS TO BE THE BEST SHOT OF RAIN FOR
MOST OF US, WITH THE CFP LATE MRNG ERLY AFTN DEPENDING ON
LOCATION, AND PRECIP COMING TO AND END BEHIND THE FROPA FROM SW TO
NE. THE SECOND HALF OF SAT SHOULD BE BETTER THAN THE FIRST.

THEN SAT NIGHT THRU MON LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE
S AND SPREADS NEWD.

STRONG CAA MOVES IN SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT AND IT WILL BE A
BIT BREEZY. WE WILL HAVE OUR FIRST TRUE TOUCH OF FALL WITH TEMPS
NOT HITTING 60 IN MANY AREAS ON SUN AND ANY WIND MAKING IT FEEL
COOLER.  THE WIND SHUD DECREASE DURG THE DAY.

BEYOND MON, A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOTS OF PRECIP THRU MIDWEEK WITH THE MDLS DIFFERING ON THE S/WV
DETAILS WHICH ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO RESOLVE AT THIS TIME SCALE.
DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDD BEYOND MON NIGHT AS THE
ECMWF WAS DELAYED IN ITS ARRIVAL, AND COULD NOT ANALYZE IT IN TIME
FOR THE FCST ISSUANCE.

TEMPS WILL START OUT NR NRML AND END NR NRML AFTER A SIGNIFICANT
DROP WITH THE CFP OVER THE WKND.



&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MARINE STRATOCU PERSISTS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. CIGS
HAVE TAKEN A BIT LONGER TO LOWER TO MVFR SOUTH AND WEST OF ABE-TTN.
STILL EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT ALL TERMINALS BY 09Z. CIGS
AROUND 2-3 KFT SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14-17Z ALTHOUGH
MVFR MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTN AT ACY WHERE MARINE LAYER IS
MOST ESTABLISHED. N-NE WINDS AROUND 5 KT AT SUNRISE WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTN.

VFR EXPECTED THIS EVE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP AGAIN BETWEEN 06Z-12Z FRIDAY. FOR THE 06Z TAFS, KEPT
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ABOVE IFR FOR NOW AT KPHL SINCE THE END OF THE
30-HR FORECAST COVERS THIS TIME WINDOW.


OUTLOOK...
FRI...MOSTLY VFR. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM W TO E AND MVFR/IFR IN
PERIODS OF RAIN, SOME OF IT HEAVY. E TO SE WIND. MDT TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

SAT...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN RAIN, SOME OF IT HEAVY, THEN BECOMING VFR
WITH RAIN ENDING FROM SW TO NE. CFP AND WSHFT FROM E TO WNW. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

SUN-MON...VFR. GUSTY NW WIND SUN. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
HERE WAS A CHANGE TO THE HEADLINE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT,
CONVERTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 25 KT DURING THIS TIME BUT SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO 5-6 FT.


OUTLOOK...
FRI...SCA CONDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON OUR WATERS THROUGH THE DAY
AND SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS PERSISTENT SELY
FLOW CONTINUES. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 FEET. COULD BE
MARGINAL.

SAT...STRONG CFP. WSHFT BACK TOWARDS THE WNW LATER IN THE DAY
BEHIND THE FROPA. A GUSTY WIND IS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT, THEN THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL BEFORE THE Y PICK UP AGAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE CAA. SCA SEEMS LIKELY. GUSTY WINDS ALSO
PSBL IN THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN THE MORNING.

SUN...GUSTY NW WIND WILL CONTINUE BEFORE SUBSIDING DURG THE MRNG.
SEAS SHOULD ALSO DROP BELOW SCA CONDS TO AROUND 3-4 FEET.

MON...NO MARINE HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN POSITIVE TIDAL
DEPARTURES BETWEEN 1-1.25 FT. DO NOT EXPECT ANOMALIES TO INCREASE
MUCH TODAY AS THE ONSHORE WINDS SUBSIDE A BIT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
TIDES BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLD FOR THIS MORNING`S AND
TONIGHT`S HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT
         FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KLEIN







000
FXUS61 KPHI 020138
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY. A VERY POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BRIEF
RESPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MONDAY. THEN A SERIES OF IMPULSES
LOOK TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPIN TO OUR NORTHEAST AND WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. AN ABUNDANCE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
AROUND THE LOW, WHICH WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE FOR THE
EARLY PART OF TONIGHT. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM KEEP THE MAJORITY OF
BARELY MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN AND COASTAL
AREAS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT WHILE THE HRRR DISSIPATES
MOST ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE IT GETS HERE. SO WE WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE ARE
CURRENTLY REFLECTIVITIES AND THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT PRECIP MAY MOVE IN LATER.

MOST OF OUR CWA WE ARE EXPECTING TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY (OR STAY
CLOUDY) AS THE FCST SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY MOIST BELOW 850MB. TO BE
CONSISTENT, THIS WOULD PRECLUDE MUCH MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AND
ALSO CONTINUING TO SIDE WITH THE HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A QUICKER MODELING TREND TO ENDING THE PCPN CHANCES BASED
ON THE FASTER 500MB LOW MOVEMENT. PCPN CHANCES IN MORNING ONLY.
MODELS INDICATING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE BEING REACHED AND MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAN EVEN TODAY. WE ARE NOT GOING TO BE FAST TO
INCREASE SUNSHINE BECAUSE OF THIS. ON THE OTHER HAND ANY CHANNELIZED
PVA IS DONE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. FULL SUN MACROS
SUGGESTING MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5F ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE. THAT STAT
GUIDANCE DROP OFF LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN AFTN PREDICTED CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE AROUND 70. AN INDICATOR OF POSSIBLY FASTER CLEARING
TOMORROW WOULD BE IF WINDS BACK FURTHER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THAN
PREDICTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR PHASING OF A STRONG
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST THAT CARVES OUT A
VERY LARGE AND DEEP CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. A FEW BREAKS IN THE ACTION ARE EXPECTED WITH WEAK
RIDGING, BUT OVERALL WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A BIT SLOWER WITH BREAKING THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGING DOWN AND THEREFORE KEEPS US MOSTLY DRY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP US DAMP WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW-70S. STRONG COLD FRONT
NEARS FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING TO
OVERSPREAD. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY, WITH ITS NOCTURNAL PASSAGE,
SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF THUNDER, IF ANY, THOUGH THERE IS AMPLE
LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY SEE A FEW TALLER UPDRAFTS.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BARREL THROUGH THE REGION EARLY.
PRETTY HEFTY HEIGHTS FALLS WITH VERY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS,
500MB JET NEARLY 70KTS, AND A NEGATIVELY TILTING TROUGH AXIS ARE
PRIME INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EVEN A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND. TOO EARLY TO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON THE NARROW
RAIN BAND BUT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SHARP WIND SHIFT WITH THE
STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE LIFTING, LOW EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS, AND
TREMENDOUS UPPER LEVEL MOMENTUM...EVEN WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE
INSTABILITY. EITHER WAY THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SOAKERS AS WE TAP INTO
THE GOMEX/ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE REGION SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY TO OCCUR WITH THE POSSIBLE
HEAVIER RAIN. POST FRONTAL WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONG AS WELL WITH A
DECENT ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A LATE MORNING HIGH.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT OFF TO THE EAST WITH TROUGHING ESTABLISHING
ITSELF TO OUR WEST AND A CRISP COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. A DRY DAY IS
ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOW-60S.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS ALLOWS FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY THOUGH TIMING OF THE WAVES IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT
THIS JUNCTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS VARY FROM SITE TO SITE, FROM VFR TO MVFR. THERE IS AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT LOCATED TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, BEFORE WE EXPECT ALL
SITES TO LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS.

ON THURSDAY WE EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON, SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES LATE, OVERSPREADS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS.
EASTERLY WINDS BACK SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN HEAVY RAIN, TRENDING VFR. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BECOMING GUSTY.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT BUOY9 ARE AROUND 4 TO 5 FEET, ABOUT A FOOT OVER WAVE WATCH
GUIDANCE. UNFORTUNATELY BUOY65 REMAINS OTS. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE ROBUST WITH THE SWELLS AND EVEN IF THIS GFS
BASED RUN IS TOO SLOW, SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THURSDAY. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE WINDS
GETTING THERE AS THE JET MAY PASS EAST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.
BECAUSE OF THE LATTER, NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR
DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON OUR
WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE WITH THE EASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 FEET. WINDS BEGIN TO BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY AND WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING, WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS.
GUSTY WINDS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN THE MORNING.

SUNDAY...RESIDUAL SCA WIND GUSTS DROP OFF BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
SHOULD ALSO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS TO AROUND 3-4 FEET.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH PERSISTENT BREEZY NORTHERLY AND NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, TIDAL DEPARTURES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOONS HIGH
TIDE SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN TIDES BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEPARTURES OVER THE NEXT HIGH AND LOW
TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 020138
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY. A VERY POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BRIEF
RESPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MONDAY. THEN A SERIES OF IMPULSES
LOOK TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO SPIN TO OUR NORTHEAST AND WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT INTO NY AND NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. AN ABUNDANCE
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA
AROUND THE LOW, WHICH WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE FOR THE
EARLY PART OF TONIGHT. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM KEEP THE MAJORITY OF
BARELY MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTHEASTERN AND COASTAL
AREAS FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT WHILE THE HRRR DISSIPATES
MOST ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE IT GETS HERE. SO WE WILL
KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE THERE ARE
CURRENTLY REFLECTIVITIES AND THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE SOME
LIGHT PRECIP MAY MOVE IN LATER.

MOST OF OUR CWA WE ARE EXPECTING TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY (OR STAY
CLOUDY) AS THE FCST SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY MOIST BELOW 850MB. TO BE
CONSISTENT, THIS WOULD PRECLUDE MUCH MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AND
ALSO CONTINUING TO SIDE WITH THE HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A QUICKER MODELING TREND TO ENDING THE PCPN CHANCES BASED
ON THE FASTER 500MB LOW MOVEMENT. PCPN CHANCES IN MORNING ONLY.
MODELS INDICATING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE BEING REACHED AND MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAN EVEN TODAY. WE ARE NOT GOING TO BE FAST TO
INCREASE SUNSHINE BECAUSE OF THIS. ON THE OTHER HAND ANY CHANNELIZED
PVA IS DONE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. FULL SUN MACROS
SUGGESTING MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5F ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE. THAT STAT
GUIDANCE DROP OFF LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN AFTN PREDICTED CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE AROUND 70. AN INDICATOR OF POSSIBLY FASTER CLEARING
TOMORROW WOULD BE IF WINDS BACK FURTHER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THAN
PREDICTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR PHASING OF A STRONG
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST THAT CARVES OUT A
VERY LARGE AND DEEP CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. A FEW BREAKS IN THE ACTION ARE EXPECTED WITH WEAK
RIDGING, BUT OVERALL WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A BIT SLOWER WITH BREAKING THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGING DOWN AND THEREFORE KEEPS US MOSTLY DRY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP US DAMP WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW-70S. STRONG COLD FRONT
NEARS FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING TO
OVERSPREAD. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY, WITH ITS NOCTURNAL PASSAGE,
SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF THUNDER, IF ANY, THOUGH THERE IS AMPLE
LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY SEE A FEW TALLER UPDRAFTS.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BARREL THROUGH THE REGION EARLY.
PRETTY HEFTY HEIGHTS FALLS WITH VERY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS,
500MB JET NEARLY 70KTS, AND A NEGATIVELY TILTING TROUGH AXIS ARE
PRIME INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EVEN A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND. TOO EARLY TO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON THE NARROW
RAIN BAND BUT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SHARP WIND SHIFT WITH THE
STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE LIFTING, LOW EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS, AND
TREMENDOUS UPPER LEVEL MOMENTUM...EVEN WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE
INSTABILITY. EITHER WAY THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SOAKERS AS WE TAP INTO
THE GOMEX/ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE REGION SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY TO OCCUR WITH THE POSSIBLE
HEAVIER RAIN. POST FRONTAL WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONG AS WELL WITH A
DECENT ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A LATE MORNING HIGH.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT OFF TO THE EAST WITH TROUGHING ESTABLISHING
ITSELF TO OUR WEST AND A CRISP COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. A DRY DAY IS
ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOW-60S.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS ALLOWS FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY THOUGH TIMING OF THE WAVES IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT
THIS JUNCTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS VARY FROM SITE TO SITE, FROM VFR TO MVFR. THERE IS AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT LOCATED TO OUR NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, BEFORE WE EXPECT ALL
SITES TO LOWER TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHEAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS.

ON THURSDAY WE EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON, SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES LATE, OVERSPREADS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS.
EASTERLY WINDS BACK SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN HEAVY RAIN, TRENDING VFR. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BECOMING GUSTY.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT BUOY9 ARE AROUND 4 TO 5 FEET, ABOUT A FOOT OVER WAVE WATCH
GUIDANCE. UNFORTUNATELY BUOY65 REMAINS OTS. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE ROBUST WITH THE SWELLS AND EVEN IF THIS GFS
BASED RUN IS TOO SLOW, SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THURSDAY. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE WINDS
GETTING THERE AS THE JET MAY PASS EAST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.
BECAUSE OF THE LATTER, NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR
DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON OUR
WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE WITH THE EASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 FEET. WINDS BEGIN TO BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY AND WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING, WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS.
GUSTY WINDS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN THE MORNING.

SUNDAY...RESIDUAL SCA WIND GUSTS DROP OFF BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
SHOULD ALSO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS TO AROUND 3-4 FEET.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH PERSISTENT BREEZY NORTHERLY AND NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, TIDAL DEPARTURES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOONS HIGH
TIDE SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN TIDES BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEPARTURES OVER THE NEXT HIGH AND LOW
TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GIGI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 012004
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
404 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY. A VERY POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BRIEF
RESPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MONDAY. THEN A SERIES OF IMPULSES
LOOK TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER THAN THE GFS AND THE 12Z
GFS RUN BASED ON ITS OWN DP/DT. THE 12Z OP GFS LOOKS TO BE ON THE
SLOW SIDE. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THIS DOES NOT RESULT IN THAT MUCH
OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER EXCEPT ALONG THE GFS`S
WESTERN FRINGE WHERE WE DID NOT RETROGRADE PCPN AS MUCH.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE SLOWLY EASING ITS WAS INTO THE NY AND NEW
ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR WEST
WILL PCPN GET. HERE WE SIDE WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH (NRN NJ). SOME
OF THE GFS MASS WAA FIELDS ARE NOT IN CORROBORATION WITH ITS
PREDICTED MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, SO THINKING IT MAY BE WRAPPING
TOO MUCH PCPN WEST (INCLUDING AMOUNTS). LAST THOUGHTS ALSO BASED ON
MOST PLACES TRACING ON THEIR HOURLY PCPN AMOUNTS TO OUR NE
PRESENTLY. POPS WERE THUS KEPT AS CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE AND WE
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE GIVEN CURRENT OBS IN NYC AND LONG
ISLAND HAVE IT AND IT WAS PBLY DRIZZLE AT ACY THIS MRNG.

MOST OF OUR CWA WE ARE EXPECTING TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY (OR STAY
CLOUDY) AS THE FCST SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY MOIST BELOW 850MB. TO BE
CONSISTENT, THIS WOULD PRECLUDE MUCH MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AND ALSO
CONTINUING TO SIDE WITH THE HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A QUICKER MODELING TREND TO ENDING THE PCPN CHANCES BASED
ON THE FASTER 500MB LOW MOVEMENT. PCPN CHANCES IN MORNING ONLY.
MODELS INDICATING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE BEING REACHED AND MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAN EVEN TODAY. WE ARE NOT GOING TO BE FAST TO
INCREASE SUNSHINE BECAUSE OF THIS. ON THE OTHER HAND ANY CHANNELIZED
PVA IS DONE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. FULL SUN MACROS
SUGGESTING MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5F ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE. THAT STAT
GUIDANCE DROP OFF LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN AFTN PREDICTED CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE AROUND 70. AN INDICATOR OF POSSIBLY FASTER CLEARING
TOMORROW WOULD BE IF WINDS BACK FURTHER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THAN
PREDICTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR PHASING OF A STRONG
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST THAT CARVES OUT A
VERY LARGE AND DEEP CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD. A FEW BREAKS IN THE ACTION ARE EXPECTED WITH WEAK
RIDGING, BUT OVERALL WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A BIT SLOWER WITH BREAKING THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGING DOWN AND THEREFORE KEEPS US MOSTLY DRY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP US DAMP WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW-70S. STRONG COLD FRONT
NEARS FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING TO
OVERSPREAD. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY, WITH ITS NOCTURNAL PASSAGE,
SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF THUNDER, IF ANY, THOUGH THERE IS AMPLE
LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY SEE A FEW TALLER UPDRAFTS.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BARREL THROUGH THE REGION EARLY.
PRETTY HEFTY HEIGHTS FALLS WITH VERY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS,
500MB JET NEARLY 70KTS, AND A NEGATIVELY TILTING TROUGH AXIS ARE
PRIME INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EVEN A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAINBAND. TOO EARLY TO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON THE NARROW
RAINBAND BUT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SHARP WIND SHIFT WITH THE
STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE LIFTING, LOW EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS, AND
TREMENDOUS UPPER LEVEL MOMENTUM...EVEN WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE
INSTABILITY. EITHER WAY THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SOAKERS AS WE TAP INTO
THE GOMEX/ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE REGION SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY TO OCCUR WITH THE POSSIBLE
HEAVIER RAIN. POST FRONTAL WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONG AS WELL WITH A
DECENT ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A LATE MORNING HIGH.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT OFF TO THE EAST WITH TROUGHING ESTABLISHING
ITSELF TO OUR WEST AND A CRISP COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. A DRY DAY IS
ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOW-60S.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS ALLOWS FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY THOUGH TIMING OF THE WAVES IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT
THIS JUNCTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SOME VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT THEN PREDOMINATELY MVFR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, MAINLY MVFR CIGS AT COASTAL AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS, BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CIGS FOR THE I95 CORRIDOR AND HIGHER
TERRAIN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS AND PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS AT KRDG
AND KABE. WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT PREDICTING A MVFR CIG TO REFORM AT ALL AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS, CLOSEST TO IFR LEVELS AT THE COAST. BECAUSE OF THE
PREDICTED CIG, WE DID NOT FORECAST THAT MUCH FOG AND MAINLY AT
THE MORE RURAL TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH.

ON THURSDAY WE ARE REVERSING THE PROCESS WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AS MOISTURE FROM NEW ENGLAND AT THE MVFR
LEVEL CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
MORE FROM THE NORTH THAN NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES LATE, OVERSPREADS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS.
EASTERLY WINDS BACK SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN HEAVY RAIN, TRENDING VFR. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BECOMING GUSTY.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT BUOY9 HAVE RISEN TO 5 FEET, ABOUT A FOOT OVER WAVE WATCH
GUIDANCE. UNFORTUNATELY BUOY65 REMAINS OTS. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE ROBUST WITH THE SWELLS AND EVEN IF THIS GFS
BASED RUN IS TOO SLOW, SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THURSDAY. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE WINDS
GETTING THERE AS THE JET MAY PASS EAST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.
BECAUSE OF THE LATTER, NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR
DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON OUR
WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE WITH THE EASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 FEET. WINDS BEGIN TO BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY AND WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING, WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS.
GUSTY WINDS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN THE MORNING.

SUNDAY...RESIDUAL SCA WIND GUSTS DROP OFF BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
SHOULD ALSO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS TO AROUND 3-4 FEET.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH PERSISTENT BREEZY NORTHERLY AND NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, TIDAL DEPARTURES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOONS HIGH
TIDE SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN TIDES BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEPARTURES OVER THE NEXT HIGH AND LOW
TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 012002
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY. A VERY POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BRIEF
RESPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MONDAY. THEN A SERIES OF IMPULSES
LOOK TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER THAN THE GFS AND THE 12Z
GFS RUN BASED ON ITS OWN DP/DT. THE 12Z OP GFS LOOKS TO BE ON THE
SLOW SIDE. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THIS DOES NOT RESULT IN THAT MUCH
OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER EXCEPT ALONG THE GFS`S
WESTERN FRINGE WHERE WE DID NOT RETROGRADE PCPN AS MUCH.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE SLOWLY EASING ITS WAS INTO THE NY AND NEW
ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR WEST
WILL PCPN GET. HERE WE SIDE WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH (NRN NJ). SOME
OF THE GFS MASS WAA FIELDS ARE NOT IN CORROBORATION WITH ITS
PREDICTED MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, SO THINKING IT MAY BE WRAPPING
TOO MUCH PCPN WEST (INCLUDING AMOUNTS). LAST THOUGHTS ALSO BASED ON
MOST PLACES TRACING ON THEIR HOURLY PCPN AMOUNTS TO OUR NE
PRESENTLY. POPS WERE THUS KEPT AS CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE AND WE
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE GIVEN CURRENT OBS IN NYC AND LONG
ISLAND HAVE IT AND IT WAS PBLY DRIZZLE AT ACY THIS MRNG.

MOST OF OUR CWA WE ARE EXPECTING TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY (OR STAY
CLOUDY) AS THE FCST SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY MOIST BELOW 850MB. TO BE
CONSISTENT, THIS WOULD PRECLUDE MUCH MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AND ALSO
CONTINUING TO SIDE WITH THE HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A QUICKER MODELING TREND TO ENDING THE PCPN CHANCES BASED
ON THE FASTER 500MB LOW MOVEMENT. PCPN CHANCES IN MORNING ONLY.
MODELS INDICATING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE BEING REACHED AND MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAN EVEN TODAY. WE ARE NOT GOING TO BE FAST TO
INCREASE SUNSHINE BECAUSE OF THIS. ON THE OTHER HAND ANY CHANNELIZED
PVA IS DONE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. FULL SUN MACROS
SUGGESTING MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5F ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE. THAT STAT
GUIDANCE DROP OFF LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN AFTN PREDICTED CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE AROUND 70. AN INDICATOR OF POSSIBLY FASTER CLEARING
TOMORROW WOULD BE IF WINDS BACK FURTHER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THAN
PREDICTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR PHASING OF A STRONG
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST THAT CARVES OUT A
VERY LARGE AND DEEP CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD. A FEW BREAKS IN THE ACTION ARE EXPECTED WITH WEAK
RIDGING, BUT OVERALL WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A BIT SLOWER WITH BREAKING THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGING DOWN AND THEREFORE KEEPS US MOSTLY DRY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP US DAMP WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW-70S. STRONG COLD FRONT
NEARS FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING TO
OVERSPREAD. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY, WITH ITS NOCTURNAL PASSAGE,
SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF THUNDER, IF ANY, THOUGH THERE IS AMPLE
LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY SEE A FEW TALLER UPDRAFTS.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BARREL THROUGH THE REGION EARLY.
PRETTY HEFTY HEIGHTS FALLS WITH VERY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS,
500MB JET NEARLY 70KTS, AND A NEGATIVELY TILTING TROUGH AXIS ARE
PRIME INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EVEN A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAINBAND. TOO EARLY TO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON THE NARROW
RAINBAND BUT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SHARP WIND SHIFT WITH THE
STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE LIFTING, LOW EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS, AND
TREMENDOUS UPPER LEVEL MOMENTUM...EVEN WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE
INSTABILITY. EITHER WAY THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SOAKERS AS WE TAP INTO
THE GOMEX/ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE REGION SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY TO OCCUR WITH THE POSSIBLE
HEAVIER RAIN. POST FRONTAL WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONG AS WELL WITH A
DECENT ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A LATE MORNING HIGH.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT OFF TO THE EAST WITH TROUGHING ESTABLISHING
ITSELF TO OUR WEST AND A CRISP COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. A DRY DAY IS
ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOW-60S.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS ALLOWS FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY THOUGH TIMING OF THE WAVES IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT
THIS JUNCTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SOME VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT THEN PREDOMINATELY MVFR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, MAINLY MVFR CIGS AT COASTAL AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS, BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CIGS FOR THE I95 CORRIDOR AND HIGHER
TERRAIN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS AND PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS AT KRDG
AND KABE. WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT PREDICTING A MVFR CIG TO REFORM AT ALL AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS, CLOSEST TO IFR LEVELS AT THE COAST. BECAUSE OF THE
PREDICTED CIG, WE DID NOT FORECAST THAT MUCH FOG AND MAINLY AT
THE MORE RURAL TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH.

ON THURSDAY WE ARE REVERSING THE PROCESS WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AS MOISTURE FROM NEW ENGLAND AT THE MVFR
LEVEL CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
MORE FROM THE NORTH THAN NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES LATE, OVERSPREADS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS.
EASTERLY WINDS BACK SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN HEAVY RAIN, TRENDING VFR. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BECOMING GUSTY.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT BUOY9 HAVE RISEN TO 5 FEET, ABOUT A FOOT OVER WAVE WATCH
GUIDANCE. UNFORTUNATELY BUOY65 REMAINS OTS. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE ROBUST WITH THE SWELLS AND EVEN IF THIS GFS
BASED RUN IS TOO SLOW, SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THURSDAY. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE WINDS
GETTING THERE AS THE JET MAY PASS EAST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.
BECAUSE OF THE LATTER, NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR
DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON OUR
WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE WITH THE EASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 FEET. WINDS BEGIN TO BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY AND WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING, WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS.
GUSTY WINDS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN THE MORNING.

SUNDAY...RESDIUAL SCA WIND GUSTS DROP OFF BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
SHOULD ALSO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS TO AROUND 3-4 FEET.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH PERSISTENT BREEZY NORTHERLY AND NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, TIDAL DEPARTURES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOONS HIGH
TIDE SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN TIDES BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEPARTURES OVER THE NEXT HIGH AND LOW
TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 012002
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY. A VERY POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BRIEF
RESPITE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MONDAY. THEN A SERIES OF IMPULSES
LOOK TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER THAN THE GFS AND THE 12Z
GFS RUN BASED ON ITS OWN DP/DT. THE 12Z OP GFS LOOKS TO BE ON THE
SLOW SIDE. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THIS DOES NOT RESULT IN THAT MUCH
OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER EXCEPT ALONG THE GFS`S
WESTERN FRINGE WHERE WE DID NOT RETROGRADE PCPN AS MUCH.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE SLOWLY EASING ITS WAS INTO THE NY AND NEW
ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. THE QUESTION BECOMES HOW FAR WEST
WILL PCPN GET. HERE WE SIDE WITH A CONSENSUS APPROACH (NRN NJ). SOME
OF THE GFS MASS WAA FIELDS ARE NOT IN CORROBORATION WITH ITS
PREDICTED MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE, SO THINKING IT MAY BE WRAPPING
TOO MUCH PCPN WEST (INCLUDING AMOUNTS). LAST THOUGHTS ALSO BASED ON
MOST PLACES TRACING ON THEIR HOURLY PCPN AMOUNTS TO OUR NE
PRESENTLY. POPS WERE THUS KEPT AS CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE AND WE
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE GIVEN CURRENT OBS IN NYC AND LONG
ISLAND HAVE IT AND IT WAS PBLY DRIZZLE AT ACY THIS MRNG.

MOST OF OUR CWA WE ARE EXPECTING TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY (OR STAY
CLOUDY) AS THE FCST SOUNDINGS ARE PRETTY MOIST BELOW 850MB. TO BE
CONSISTENT, THIS WOULD PRECLUDE MUCH MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AND ALSO
CONTINUING TO SIDE WITH THE HIGHER STAT GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
GOING WITH A QUICKER MODELING TREND TO ENDING THE PCPN CHANCES BASED
ON THE FASTER 500MB LOW MOVEMENT. PCPN CHANCES IN MORNING ONLY.
MODELS INDICATING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE BEING REACHED AND MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE THAN EVEN TODAY. WE ARE NOT GOING TO BE FAST TO
INCREASE SUNSHINE BECAUSE OF THIS. ON THE OTHER HAND ANY CHANNELIZED
PVA IS DONE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. FULL SUN MACROS
SUGGESTING MAX TEMPS ABOUT 5F ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE. THAT STAT
GUIDANCE DROP OFF LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN AFTN PREDICTED CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE AROUND 70. AN INDICATOR OF POSSIBLY FASTER CLEARING
TOMORROW WOULD BE IF WINDS BACK FURTHER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THAN
PREDICTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR PHASING OF A STRONG
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST THAT CARVES OUT A
VERY LARGE AND DEEP CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
LONGTERM PERIOD. A FEW BREAKS IN THE ACTION ARE EXPECTED WITH WEAK
RIDGING, BUT OVERALL WE WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A BIT SLOWER WITH BREAKING THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGING DOWN AND THEREFORE KEEPS US MOSTLY DRY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP US DAMP WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW-70S. STRONG COLD FRONT
NEARS FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS BEGINNING TO
OVERSPREAD. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY, WITH ITS NOCTURNAL PASSAGE,
SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF THUNDER, IF ANY, THOUGH THERE IS AMPLE
LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO POSSIBLY SEE A FEW TALLER UPDRAFTS.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT CONTINUES TO BARREL THROUGH THE REGION EARLY.
PRETTY HEFTY HEIGHTS FALLS WITH VERY ROBUST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS,
500MB JET NEARLY 70KTS, AND A NEGATIVELY TILTING TROUGH AXIS ARE
PRIME INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EVEN A NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAINBAND. TOO EARLY TO HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON THE NARROW
RAINBAND BUT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A SHARP WIND SHIFT WITH THE
STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE LIFTING, LOW EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS, AND
TREMENDOUS UPPER LEVEL MOMENTUM...EVEN WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE
INSTABILITY. EITHER WAY THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SOAKERS AS WE TAP INTO
THE GOMEX/ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL PRETTY DRY ACROSS THE REGION SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY TO OCCUR WITH THE POSSIBLE
HEAVIER RAIN. POST FRONTAL WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONG AS WELL WITH A
DECENT ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE DROPPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY SO WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A LATE MORNING HIGH.

SUNDAY...COLD FRONT OFF TO THE EAST WITH TROUGHING ESTABLISHING
ITSELF TO OUR WEST AND A CRISP COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE. A DRY DAY IS
ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER-50S TO LOW-60S.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES ROTATE THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST. THIS ALLOWS FOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY THOUGH TIMING OF THE WAVES IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT
THIS JUNCTURE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SOME VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT THEN PREDOMINATELY MVFR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, MAINLY MVFR CIGS AT COASTAL AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS, BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CIGS FOR THE I95 CORRIDOR AND HIGHER
TERRAIN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS AND PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS AT KRDG
AND KABE. WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT PREDICTING A MVFR CIG TO REFORM AT ALL AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS, CLOSEST TO IFR LEVELS AT THE COAST. BECAUSE OF THE
PREDICTED CIG, WE DID NOT FORECAST THAT MUCH FOG AND MAINLY AT
THE MORE RURAL TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH.

ON THURSDAY WE ARE REVERSING THE PROCESS WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AS MOISTURE FROM NEW ENGLAND AT THE MVFR
LEVEL CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
MORE FROM THE NORTH THAN NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES LATE, OVERSPREADS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS.
EASTERLY WINDS BACK SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN HEAVY RAIN, TRENDING VFR. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BECOMING GUSTY.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS AT BUOY9 HAVE RISEN TO 5 FEET, ABOUT A FOOT OVER WAVE WATCH
GUIDANCE. UNFORTUNATELY BUOY65 REMAINS OTS. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE ROBUST WITH THE SWELLS AND EVEN IF THIS GFS
BASED RUN IS TOO SLOW, SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA INTO THURSDAY. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE WINDS
GETTING THERE AS THE JET MAY PASS EAST OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.
BECAUSE OF THE LATTER, NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR
DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON OUR
WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE WITH THE EASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 FEET. WINDS BEGIN TO BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.

SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY AND WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING, WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS.
GUSTY WINDS IN THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...MOSTLY IN THE MORNING.

SUNDAY...RESDIUAL SCA WIND GUSTS DROP OFF BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
SHOULD ALSO DROP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS TO AROUND 3-4 FEET.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH PERSISTENT BREEZY NORTHERLY AND NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, TIDAL DEPARTURES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOONS HIGH
TIDE SHOULD RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN TIDES BELOW MINOR FLOODING THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEPARTURES OVER THE NEXT HIGH AND LOW
TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 011713
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
113 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO BY FRIDAY AND ITS
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEXT ESTF UPDATE WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE MINIMAL POPS MAINLY
AROUND THE EDGES OF OUR CWA. THERE ARE SHOWERS BOTH WEST AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. THE FORMER SHOULD PASS MOSTLY TO OUR WEST,
WHILE THE LATTER IS STRUGGLING TO ARRIVE IN NORTHERN NJ. CCL BASED
CU ARE FORMING, SO NO BIG CHANGES TO OTHER PARAMETERS NEEDED.

UPPER LOW CROSSING PA/NJ TODAY WITH MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW.
OVERCAST SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD BRIGHTEN OR THIN A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON TO REVEAL A LITTLE SS.

TEMPS/WINDS/DEWS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 100Z/1 NAM/GFS MOS.  .

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THERE MAY BE EVENING PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE BL RH SATURATES AND
DEVELOPS LOWS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG.

GFS MOS TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO COLD SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FAR
TO THE EAST AND THE CAA IS WEAK. USED THE NAM MOS TEMPS FOR LOWS WHICH
ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS. EVEN THESE WERE RAISED
A DEGREE OR TWO.

DEWS WERE NAM MOS.

WINDS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS

POPS WERE BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS AND LOWERED IN THE SW PORTION OF THE FCST
AREA USING THE 21Z/30 SREF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE CAN MARITIMES WILL NOSE WWD OVER THE
AREA ON THU AND EXPECT A DRY DAY BUT ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AS ELY
FLOW WILL PERSIST. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THU NIGHT
INTO ERLY FRI WITH LOW PRES WELL OFF THE CST OF NEW ENG.

ATTN THEN TURNS TO THE CNTRL CONUS WHERE A POTENT LOW PRES SYS WILL
TAKE SHAPE BEGINNING THU NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO OR TOWARD ONTARIO ON FRI.

THE MDLS ALL AGREE ON THE FACT THAT THIS LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INTO OR TOWARD  ONTARIO DURG THIS TIME FRAME, THEY DIFFER A BIT
ON THE DETAILS, AS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. THE GFS, NAM/WRF AND CMC
HAVE A SINGLE LOW STRUCTURE AND BRING THE LOW INTO ONTARIO BY
03/18Z. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF HAS A DOUBLE LOW STRUCTURE AT
03/18Z AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER AT THIS TIME FRAME (BY ABOUT 10
MB) THAN ANY OTHER MDL.

IT THEN IS INTERESTING THAT BY 78 AND 84 HRS THE ECMWF MDL HAS THE
STRONGEST SOLN WITH THE LOW, BUT IT IS FURTHER S AND E WITH THE
LOW CENTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS.

THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL BEGIN MOVG EWD AND THERE CUD BE
SOME PRECIP IN WRN AREAS BY SUNSET FRI, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E FRI NIGHT AND THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFS WITH THE MDLS AS WELL. THE GFS AND NAM/WRF GENLY KEEP
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THRU DAYBREAK SAT WHILE
THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE FURTHER E. THE GFS THEN BRINGS THE HEAVIER
PRECIP THRU DURG THE MRNG HOURS WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS
FASTER. THEN PRECIP ENDS FROM SW TO NE DURG THE DAY BEHIND THE CFP
AS A WSHFT FROM E TO WNW BRINGS IN DRIER AIR. THERE IS SILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MDLS TO KEEP CONFIDENCE LWR THAN AVERAGE. THE
ECMWF IS OFTEN TOO SLOW WITH FRONTAL TIMING, SO ITS INTERESTING
THAT IT IS THE FASTER SOLN HERE.

ONE NOTICEABLE TREND IN THE 01/00 GUID IS IMPROVEMENT IN THE
SECOND HALF OF SAT, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THIS TIME FOR THIS
FCST ISSUANCE.

WITH THAT SAID, HIGH PRES MOVES IN BEHIND CFP AND SAT NIGHT THRU
MON LOOK DRY.

ANOTHER WK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MON, BUT ATTM NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN POOPS AS THE ECMWF IS DRY WHILE THE GFS HAS
SOME LOW POPS.

ON TUE, THERE CUD BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP, WHICH THE MDLS
DEVELOP DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME FROM AN AREA OF
LOW PRES WHICH TAKES SHAPE FROM SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE
SERN STATES AND MOVES NEWD. THE GFS HAS SOME NRN STREAM AND SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND PSBLY ANOTHER WK FROPA. AGAIN, FOR NOW WILL JUST
CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

TEMPS WILL GENLY AVERAGE NR NRML, EXCEPT FOR SUN IN THE COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE STRONG FROPA, WHERE TEMPS WILL AVERAGE MUCH
BELOW NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF SOME VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THEN PREDOMINATELY MVFR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, MAINLY MVFR CIGS AT COASTAL
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS, BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CIGS FOR THE I95
CORRIDOR AND HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS AND
PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS AT KRDG AND KABE. WINDS SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT PREDICTING A MVFR CIG TO REFORM AT ALL AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS, CLOSEST TO IFR LEVELS AT THE COAST. BECAUSE OF THE
PREDICTED CIG, WE DID NOT FORECAST THAT MUCH FOG AND MAINLY AT
THE MORE RURAL TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH.

ON THURSDAY WE ARE REVERSING THE PROCESS WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AS MOISTURE FROM NEW ENGLAND AT THE MVFR
LEVEL CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
MORE FROM THE NORTH THAN NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS.


OUTLOOK...
THU AFTERNOON...VFR. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI..VFR ERLY. PSBL MVFR W LATE. RAIN CHCS LATE W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH INCREASING RAIN CHCS FROM W TO E BY
DAYBREAK. RAIN CUD BE HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH APPROACHING CDFNT. MDT
CONFIDENCE, THOUGH LOW TO MDT ON FRONTAL POSN.

SAT...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES...INCREASING TO VFR.
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E DURG THE MRNG/AFTERNOON. CFP LATE MRNG ERLY
AFTERNOON FROM W TO E AND WSHFT FROM SE TO WNW. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY RISE IN SEAS AT BUOY9 TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. GIVEN TEXAS TOWER SEAS ARE ALSO SLOWLY
RISING, WE WILL EXTEND THE SCA FARTHER DOWN THE COAST.

TWO WEEKS AFTER RESTORATION OF A LENGTHY BUOY 44065 OUTAGE...DATA
TRANSMISSION TOPPED AT 4PM THIS PAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NDBC HAS
BEEN CONTACTED AND THEY WILL LET US KNOW WHAT THE PROBLEM IS.

BASICALLY NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 20
KT. SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT AND GENERALLY 1-2 FT DELAWARE BAY.


OUTLOOK...
THU...ELY FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THERE COULD BE SCA CONDS ONCE
AGAIN, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE NRN WATERS. HOWEVER, THU IS A
MARGINAL DAY AND THE LATEST GUID INDICATES WE MAY FALL JUST SHORT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT DURG
THIS PD AS SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

SAT...STRONG CFP. WINDSHIFT TO NW OR WNW. SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AND SCA WILL CONTINUE. BEST CHC FOR SCA WIND DURG THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MONTHLY CLM`S HAVE BEEN RUN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GIGI/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/GIGI/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 011713
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
113 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO BY FRIDAY AND ITS
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEXT ESTF UPDATE WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE MINIMAL POPS MAINLY
AROUND THE EDGES OF OUR CWA. THERE ARE SHOWERS BOTH WEST AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. THE FORMER SHOULD PASS MOSTLY TO OUR WEST,
WHILE THE LATTER IS STRUGGLING TO ARRIVE IN NORTHERN NJ. CCL BASED
CU ARE FORMING, SO NO BIG CHANGES TO OTHER PARAMETERS NEEDED.

UPPER LOW CROSSING PA/NJ TODAY WITH MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW.
OVERCAST SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD BRIGHTEN OR THIN A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON TO REVEAL A LITTLE SS.

TEMPS/WINDS/DEWS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 100Z/1 NAM/GFS MOS.  .

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THERE MAY BE EVENING PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE BL RH SATURATES AND
DEVELOPS LOWS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG.

GFS MOS TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO COLD SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FAR
TO THE EAST AND THE CAA IS WEAK. USED THE NAM MOS TEMPS FOR LOWS WHICH
ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS. EVEN THESE WERE RAISED
A DEGREE OR TWO.

DEWS WERE NAM MOS.

WINDS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS

POPS WERE BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS AND LOWERED IN THE SW PORTION OF THE FCST
AREA USING THE 21Z/30 SREF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE CAN MARITIMES WILL NOSE WWD OVER THE
AREA ON THU AND EXPECT A DRY DAY BUT ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AS ELY
FLOW WILL PERSIST. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THU NIGHT
INTO ERLY FRI WITH LOW PRES WELL OFF THE CST OF NEW ENG.

ATTN THEN TURNS TO THE CNTRL CONUS WHERE A POTENT LOW PRES SYS WILL
TAKE SHAPE BEGINNING THU NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO OR TOWARD ONTARIO ON FRI.

THE MDLS ALL AGREE ON THE FACT THAT THIS LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INTO OR TOWARD  ONTARIO DURG THIS TIME FRAME, THEY DIFFER A BIT
ON THE DETAILS, AS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. THE GFS, NAM/WRF AND CMC
HAVE A SINGLE LOW STRUCTURE AND BRING THE LOW INTO ONTARIO BY
03/18Z. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF HAS A DOUBLE LOW STRUCTURE AT
03/18Z AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER AT THIS TIME FRAME (BY ABOUT 10
MB) THAN ANY OTHER MDL.

IT THEN IS INTERESTING THAT BY 78 AND 84 HRS THE ECMWF MDL HAS THE
STRONGEST SOLN WITH THE LOW, BUT IT IS FURTHER S AND E WITH THE
LOW CENTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS.

THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL BEGIN MOVG EWD AND THERE CUD BE
SOME PRECIP IN WRN AREAS BY SUNSET FRI, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E FRI NIGHT AND THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFS WITH THE MDLS AS WELL. THE GFS AND NAM/WRF GENLY KEEP
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THRU DAYBREAK SAT WHILE
THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE FURTHER E. THE GFS THEN BRINGS THE HEAVIER
PRECIP THRU DURG THE MRNG HOURS WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS
FASTER. THEN PRECIP ENDS FROM SW TO NE DURG THE DAY BEHIND THE CFP
AS A WSHFT FROM E TO WNW BRINGS IN DRIER AIR. THERE IS SILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MDLS TO KEEP CONFIDENCE LWR THAN AVERAGE. THE
ECMWF IS OFTEN TOO SLOW WITH FRONTAL TIMING, SO ITS INTERESTING
THAT IT IS THE FASTER SOLN HERE.

ONE NOTICEABLE TREND IN THE 01/00 GUID IS IMPROVEMENT IN THE
SECOND HALF OF SAT, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THIS TIME FOR THIS
FCST ISSUANCE.

WITH THAT SAID, HIGH PRES MOVES IN BEHIND CFP AND SAT NIGHT THRU
MON LOOK DRY.

ANOTHER WK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MON, BUT ATTM NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN POOPS AS THE ECMWF IS DRY WHILE THE GFS HAS
SOME LOW POPS.

ON TUE, THERE CUD BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP, WHICH THE MDLS
DEVELOP DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME FROM AN AREA OF
LOW PRES WHICH TAKES SHAPE FROM SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE
SERN STATES AND MOVES NEWD. THE GFS HAS SOME NRN STREAM AND SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND PSBLY ANOTHER WK FROPA. AGAIN, FOR NOW WILL JUST
CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

TEMPS WILL GENLY AVERAGE NR NRML, EXCEPT FOR SUN IN THE COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE STRONG FROPA, WHERE TEMPS WILL AVERAGE MUCH
BELOW NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF SOME VFR CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT THEN PREDOMINATELY MVFR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, MAINLY MVFR CIGS AT COASTAL
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS, BORDERLINE MVFR/VFR CIGS FOR THE I95
CORRIDOR AND HIGHER TERRAIN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS AND
PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS AT KRDG AND KABE. WINDS SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT PREDICTING A MVFR CIG TO REFORM AT ALL AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS, CLOSEST TO IFR LEVELS AT THE COAST. BECAUSE OF THE
PREDICTED CIG, WE DID NOT FORECAST THAT MUCH FOG AND MAINLY AT
THE MORE RURAL TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH.

ON THURSDAY WE ARE REVERSING THE PROCESS WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS AS MOISTURE FROM NEW ENGLAND AT THE MVFR
LEVEL CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
MORE FROM THE NORTH THAN NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS.


OUTLOOK...
THU AFTERNOON...VFR. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI..VFR ERLY. PSBL MVFR W LATE. RAIN CHCS LATE W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH INCREASING RAIN CHCS FROM W TO E BY
DAYBREAK. RAIN CUD BE HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH APPROACHING CDFNT. MDT
CONFIDENCE, THOUGH LOW TO MDT ON FRONTAL POSN.

SAT...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES...INCREASING TO VFR.
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E DURG THE MRNG/AFTERNOON. CFP LATE MRNG ERLY
AFTERNOON FROM W TO E AND WSHFT FROM SE TO WNW. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY RISE IN SEAS AT BUOY9 TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. GIVEN TEXAS TOWER SEAS ARE ALSO SLOWLY
RISING, WE WILL EXTEND THE SCA FARTHER DOWN THE COAST.

TWO WEEKS AFTER RESTORATION OF A LENGTHY BUOY 44065 OUTAGE...DATA
TRANSMISSION TOPPED AT 4PM THIS PAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NDBC HAS
BEEN CONTACTED AND THEY WILL LET US KNOW WHAT THE PROBLEM IS.

BASICALLY NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 20
KT. SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT AND GENERALLY 1-2 FT DELAWARE BAY.


OUTLOOK...
THU...ELY FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THERE COULD BE SCA CONDS ONCE
AGAIN, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE NRN WATERS. HOWEVER, THU IS A
MARGINAL DAY AND THE LATEST GUID INDICATES WE MAY FALL JUST SHORT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT DURG
THIS PD AS SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

SAT...STRONG CFP. WINDSHIFT TO NW OR WNW. SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AND SCA WILL CONTINUE. BEST CHC FOR SCA WIND DURG THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MONTHLY CLM`S HAVE BEEN RUN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GIGI/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/GIGI/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 011605
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1205 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO BY FRIDAY AND ITS
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEXT ESTF UPDATE WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE MINIMAL POPS MAINLY
AROUND THE EDGES OF OUR CWA. THERE ARE SHOWERS BOTH WEST AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. THE FORMER SHOULD PASS MOSTLY TO OUR WEST,
WHILE THE LATTER IS STRUGGLING TO ARRIVE IN NORTHERN NJ. CCL BASED
CU ARE FORMING, SO NO BIG CHANGES TO OTHER PARAMETERS NEEDED.

UPPER LOW CROSSING PA/NJ TODAY WITH MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW.
OVERCAST SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD BRIGHTEN OR THIN A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON TO REVEAL A LITTLE SS.

TEMPS/WINDS/DEWS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 100Z/1 NAM/GFS MOS.  .

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THERE MAY BE EVENING PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE BL RH SATURATES AND
DEVELOPS LOWS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG.

GFS MOS TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO COLD SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FAR
TO THE EAST AND THE CAA IS WEAK. USED THE NAM MOS TEMPS FOR LOWS WHICH
ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS. EVEN THESE WERE RAISED
A DEGREE OR TWO.

DEWS WERE NAM MOS.

WINDS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS

POPS WERE BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS AND LOWERED IN THE SW PORTION OF THE FCST
AREA USING THE 21Z/30 SREF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE CAN MARITIMES WILL NOSE WWD OVER THE
AREA ON THU AND EXPECT A DRY DAY BUT ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AS ELY
FLOW WILL PERSIST. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THU NIGHT
INTO ERLY FRI WITH LOW PRES WELL OFF THE CST OF NEW ENG.

ATTN THEN TURNS TO THE CNTRL CONUS WHERE A POTENT LOW PRES SYS WILL
TAKE SHAPE BEGINNING THU NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO OR TOWARD ONTARIO ON FRI.

THE MDLS ALL AGREE ON THE FACT THAT THIS LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INTO OR TOWARD  ONTARIO DURG THIS TIME FRAME, THEY DIFFER A BIT
ON THE DETAILS, AS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. THE GFS, NAM/WRF AND CMC
HAVE A SINGLE LOW STRUCTURE AND BRING THE LOW INTO ONTARIO BY
03/18Z. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF HAS A DOUBLE LOW STRUCTURE AT
03/18Z AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER AT THIS TIME FRAME (BY ABOUT 10
MB) THAN ANY OTHER MDL.

IT THEN IS INTERESTING THAT BY 78 AND 84 HRS THE ECMWF MDL HAS THE
STRONGEST SOLN WITH THE LOW, BUT IT IS FURTHER S AND E WITH THE
LOW CENTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS.

THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL BEGIN MOVG EWD AND THERE CUD BE
SOME PRECIP IN WRN AREAS BY SUNSET FRI, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E FRI NIGHT AND THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFS WITH THE MDLS AS WELL. THE GFS AND NAM/WRF GENLY KEEP
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THRU DAYBREAK SAT WHILE
THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE FURTHER E. THE GFS THEN BRINGS THE HEAVIER
PRECIP THRU DURG THE MRNG HOURS WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS
FASTER. THEN PRECIP ENDS FROM SW TO NE DURG THE DAY BEHIND THE CFP
AS A WSHFT FROM E TO WNW BRINGS IN DRIER AIR. THERE IS SILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MDLS TO KEEP CONFIDENCE LWR THAN AVERAGE. THE
ECMWF IS OFTEN TOO SLOW WITH FRONTAL TIMING, SO ITS INTERESTING
THAT IT IS THE FASTER SOLN HERE.

ONE NOTICEABLE TREND IN THE 01/00 GUID IS IMPROVEMENT IN THE
SECOND HALF OF SAT, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THIS TIME FOR THIS
FCST ISSUANCE.

WITH THAT SAID, HIGH PRES MOVES IN BEHIND CFP AND SAT NIGHT THRU
MON LOOK DRY.

ANOTHER WK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MON, BUT ATTM NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN POOPS AS THE ECMWF IS DRY WHILE THE GFS HAS
SOME LOW POPS.

ON TUE, THERE CUD BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP, WHICH THE MDLS
DEVELOP DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME FROM AN AREA OF
LOW PRES WHICH TAKES SHAPE FROM SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE
SERN STATES AND MOVES NEWD. THE GFS HAS SOME NRN STREAM AND SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND PSBLY ANOTHER WK FROPA. AGAIN, FOR NOW WILL JUST
CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

TEMPS WILL GENLY AVERAGE NR NRML, EXCEPT FOR SUN IN THE COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE STRONG FROPA, WHERE TEMPS WILL AVERAGE MUCH
BELOW NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGER THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
VFR AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, MOSTLY IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

TONIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CIGS REDEVELOP LATER ON WITH POSSIBLY PATCHY
1-3MI FOG AFTER 06Z/2. LIGHT NORTH WIND.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR CONDS PSBL EARLY OTHERWISE VFR. PSBL LINGERING SHRA EARLY
AT MIV/ACY, OTHERWISE DRY.  MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI..VFR ERLY. PSBL MVFR W LATE. RAIN CHCS LATE W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH INCREASING RAIN CHCS FROM W TO E BY
DAYBREAK. RAIN CUD BE HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH APPROACHING CDFNT. MDT
CONFIDENCE, THOUGH LOW TO MDT ON FRONTAL POSN.

SAT...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES...INCREASING TO VFR.
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E DURG THE MRNG/AFTERNOON. CFP LATE MRNG ERLY
AFTERNOON FROM W TO E AND WSHFT FROM SE TO WNW. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY RISE IN SEAS AT BUOY9 TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. GIVEN TEXAS TOWER SEAS ARE ALSO SLOWLY
RISING, WE WILL EXTEND THE SCA FARTHER DOWN THE COAST.

TWO WEEKS AFTER RESTORATION OF A LENGTHY BUOY 44065 OUTAGE...DATA
TRANSMISSION TOPPED AT 4PM THIS PAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NDBC HAS
BEEN CONTACTED AND THEY WILL LET US KNOW WHAT THE PROBLEM IS.

BASICALLY NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 20
KT. SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT AND GENERALLY 1-2 FT DELAWARE BAY.


OUTLOOK...
THU...ELY FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THERE COULD BE SCA CONDS ONCE
AGAIN, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE NRN WATERS. HOWEVER, THU IS A
MARGINAL DAY AND THE LATEST GUID INDICATES WE MAY FALL JUST SHORT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT DURG
THIS PD AS SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

SAT...STRONG CFP. WINDSHIFT TO NW OR WNW. SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AND SCA WILL CONTINUE. BEST CHC FOR SCA WIND DURG THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MONTHLY CLM`S HAVE BEEN RUN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/GIGI/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 011605
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1205 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO BY FRIDAY AND ITS
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NEXT ESTF UPDATE WE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE MINIMAL POPS MAINLY
AROUND THE EDGES OF OUR CWA. THERE ARE SHOWERS BOTH WEST AND
NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA. THE FORMER SHOULD PASS MOSTLY TO OUR WEST,
WHILE THE LATTER IS STRUGGLING TO ARRIVE IN NORTHERN NJ. CCL BASED
CU ARE FORMING, SO NO BIG CHANGES TO OTHER PARAMETERS NEEDED.

UPPER LOW CROSSING PA/NJ TODAY WITH MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW.
OVERCAST SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD BRIGHTEN OR THIN A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON TO REVEAL A LITTLE SS.

TEMPS/WINDS/DEWS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 100Z/1 NAM/GFS MOS.  .

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THERE MAY BE EVENING PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE BL RH SATURATES AND
DEVELOPS LOWS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG.

GFS MOS TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO COLD SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FAR
TO THE EAST AND THE CAA IS WEAK. USED THE NAM MOS TEMPS FOR LOWS WHICH
ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS. EVEN THESE WERE RAISED
A DEGREE OR TWO.

DEWS WERE NAM MOS.

WINDS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS

POPS WERE BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS AND LOWERED IN THE SW PORTION OF THE FCST
AREA USING THE 21Z/30 SREF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE CAN MARITIMES WILL NOSE WWD OVER THE
AREA ON THU AND EXPECT A DRY DAY BUT ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AS ELY
FLOW WILL PERSIST. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THU NIGHT
INTO ERLY FRI WITH LOW PRES WELL OFF THE CST OF NEW ENG.

ATTN THEN TURNS TO THE CNTRL CONUS WHERE A POTENT LOW PRES SYS WILL
TAKE SHAPE BEGINNING THU NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO OR TOWARD ONTARIO ON FRI.

THE MDLS ALL AGREE ON THE FACT THAT THIS LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INTO OR TOWARD  ONTARIO DURG THIS TIME FRAME, THEY DIFFER A BIT
ON THE DETAILS, AS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. THE GFS, NAM/WRF AND CMC
HAVE A SINGLE LOW STRUCTURE AND BRING THE LOW INTO ONTARIO BY
03/18Z. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF HAS A DOUBLE LOW STRUCTURE AT
03/18Z AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER AT THIS TIME FRAME (BY ABOUT 10
MB) THAN ANY OTHER MDL.

IT THEN IS INTERESTING THAT BY 78 AND 84 HRS THE ECMWF MDL HAS THE
STRONGEST SOLN WITH THE LOW, BUT IT IS FURTHER S AND E WITH THE
LOW CENTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS.

THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL BEGIN MOVG EWD AND THERE CUD BE
SOME PRECIP IN WRN AREAS BY SUNSET FRI, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E FRI NIGHT AND THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFS WITH THE MDLS AS WELL. THE GFS AND NAM/WRF GENLY KEEP
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THRU DAYBREAK SAT WHILE
THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE FURTHER E. THE GFS THEN BRINGS THE HEAVIER
PRECIP THRU DURG THE MRNG HOURS WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS
FASTER. THEN PRECIP ENDS FROM SW TO NE DURG THE DAY BEHIND THE CFP
AS A WSHFT FROM E TO WNW BRINGS IN DRIER AIR. THERE IS SILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MDLS TO KEEP CONFIDENCE LWR THAN AVERAGE. THE
ECMWF IS OFTEN TOO SLOW WITH FRONTAL TIMING, SO ITS INTERESTING
THAT IT IS THE FASTER SOLN HERE.

ONE NOTICEABLE TREND IN THE 01/00 GUID IS IMPROVEMENT IN THE
SECOND HALF OF SAT, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THIS TIME FOR THIS
FCST ISSUANCE.

WITH THAT SAID, HIGH PRES MOVES IN BEHIND CFP AND SAT NIGHT THRU
MON LOOK DRY.

ANOTHER WK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MON, BUT ATTM NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN POOPS AS THE ECMWF IS DRY WHILE THE GFS HAS
SOME LOW POPS.

ON TUE, THERE CUD BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP, WHICH THE MDLS
DEVELOP DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME FROM AN AREA OF
LOW PRES WHICH TAKES SHAPE FROM SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE
SERN STATES AND MOVES NEWD. THE GFS HAS SOME NRN STREAM AND SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND PSBLY ANOTHER WK FROPA. AGAIN, FOR NOW WILL JUST
CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

TEMPS WILL GENLY AVERAGE NR NRML, EXCEPT FOR SUN IN THE COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE STRONG FROPA, WHERE TEMPS WILL AVERAGE MUCH
BELOW NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGER THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
VFR AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, MOSTLY IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

TONIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CIGS REDEVELOP LATER ON WITH POSSIBLY PATCHY
1-3MI FOG AFTER 06Z/2. LIGHT NORTH WIND.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR CONDS PSBL EARLY OTHERWISE VFR. PSBL LINGERING SHRA EARLY
AT MIV/ACY, OTHERWISE DRY.  MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI..VFR ERLY. PSBL MVFR W LATE. RAIN CHCS LATE W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH INCREASING RAIN CHCS FROM W TO E BY
DAYBREAK. RAIN CUD BE HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH APPROACHING CDFNT. MDT
CONFIDENCE, THOUGH LOW TO MDT ON FRONTAL POSN.

SAT...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES...INCREASING TO VFR.
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E DURG THE MRNG/AFTERNOON. CFP LATE MRNG ERLY
AFTERNOON FROM W TO E AND WSHFT FROM SE TO WNW. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY RISE IN SEAS AT BUOY9 TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. GIVEN TEXAS TOWER SEAS ARE ALSO SLOWLY
RISING, WE WILL EXTEND THE SCA FARTHER DOWN THE COAST.

TWO WEEKS AFTER RESTORATION OF A LENGTHY BUOY 44065 OUTAGE...DATA
TRANSMISSION TOPPED AT 4PM THIS PAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NDBC HAS
BEEN CONTACTED AND THEY WILL LET US KNOW WHAT THE PROBLEM IS.

BASICALLY NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 20
KT. SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT AND GENERALLY 1-2 FT DELAWARE BAY.


OUTLOOK...
THU...ELY FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THERE COULD BE SCA CONDS ONCE
AGAIN, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE NRN WATERS. HOWEVER, THU IS A
MARGINAL DAY AND THE LATEST GUID INDICATES WE MAY FALL JUST SHORT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT DURG
THIS PD AS SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

SAT...STRONG CFP. WINDSHIFT TO NW OR WNW. SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AND SCA WILL CONTINUE. BEST CHC FOR SCA WIND DURG THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MONTHLY CLM`S HAVE BEEN RUN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/GIGI/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 011458
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1058 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO BY FRIDAY AND ITS
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP NOT AS GENEROUS WITH SHOWERS
FOR TODAY, COMING IN CLOSER TO NSSL SOLUTION. MORNING SOUNDINGS
ARE PRETTY MOIST WITH THE CCL WITHIN REACH. SO WHILE WE LOWERED
POPS A BIT, WE KEPT CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS PRETTY MUCH AS IS. THE
LATTER HAS CORROBORATION FROM THE MORNING SOUNDINGS TOO.

UPPER LOW CROSSING PA/NJ TODAY WITH MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS-SPRINKLES OVER THE AREA AT 530 AM SHOULD
EVENTUALLY TEND TO DRY OUT LATE TODAY. PWAT CONTINUES 1.2 INCHES
SO SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...MAINLY EASTERN
AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. 00Z/1 NSSL WRF FAVORS EASTERN NJ.

OVERCAST SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD BRIGHTEN OR THIN A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON TO REVEAL A LITTLE SS.

TEMPS/WINDS/DEWS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 100Z/1 NAM/GFS MOS.  .

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THERE MAY BE EVENING PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE BL RH SATURATES AND
DEVELOPS LOWS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG.

GFS MOS TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO COLD SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FAR
TO THE EAST AND THE CAA IS WEAK. USED THE NAM MOS TEMPS FOR LOWS WHICH
ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS. EVEN THESE WERE RAISED
A DEGREE OR TWO.

DEWS WERE NAM MOS.

WINDS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS

POPS WERE BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS AND LOWERED IN THE SW PORTION OF THE FCST
AREA USING THE 21Z/30 SREF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE CAN MARITIMES WILL NOSE WWD OVER THE
AREA ON THU AND EXPECT A DRY DAY BUT ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AS ELY
FLOW WILL PERSIST. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THU NIGHT
INTO ERLY FRI WITH LOW PRES WELL OFF THE CST OF NEW ENG.

ATTN THEN TURNS TO THE CNTRL CONUS WHERE A POTENT LOW PRES SYS WILL
TAKE SHAPE BEGINNING THU NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO OR TOWARD ONTARIO ON FRI.

THE MDLS ALL AGREE ON THE FACT THAT THIS LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INTO OR TOWARD  ONTARIO DURG THIS TIME FRAME, THEY DIFFER A BIT
ON THE DETAILS, AS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. THE GFS, NAM/WRF AND CMC
HAVE A SINGLE LOW STRUCTURE AND BRING THE LOW INTO ONTARIO BY
03/18Z. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF HAS A DOUBLE LOW STRUCTURE AT
03/18Z AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER AT THIS TIME FRAME (BY ABOUT 10
MB) THAN ANY OTHER MDL.

IT THEN IS INTERESTING THAT BY 78 AND 84 HRS THE ECMWF MDL HAS THE
STRONGEST SOLN WITH THE LOW, BUT IT IS FURTHER S AND E WITH THE
LOW CENTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS.

THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL BEGIN MOVG EWD AND THERE CUD BE
SOME PRECIP IN WRN AREAS BY SUNSET FRI, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E FRI NIGHT AND THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFS WITH THE MDLS AS WELL. THE GFS AND NAM/WRF GENLY KEEP
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THRU DAYBREAK SAT WHILE
THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE FURTHER E. THE GFS THEN BRINGS THE HEAVIER
PRECIP THRU DURG THE MRNG HOURS WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS
FASTER. THEN PRECIP ENDS FROM SW TO NE DURG THE DAY BEHIND THE CFP
AS A WSHFT FROM E TO WNW BRINGS IN DRIER AIR. THERE IS SILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MDLS TO KEEP CONFIDENCE LWR THAN AVERAGE. THE
ECMWF IS OFTEN TOO SLOW WITH FRONTAL TIMING, SO ITS INTERESTING
THAT IT IS THE FASTER SOLN HERE.

ONE NOTICEABLE TREND IN THE 01/00 GUID IS IMPROVEMENT IN THE
SECOND HALF OF SAT, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THIS TIME FOR THIS
FCST ISSUANCE.

WITH THAT SAID, HIGH PRES MOVES IN BEHIND CFP AND SAT NIGHT THRU
MON LOOK DRY.

ANOTHER WK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MON, BUT ATTM NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN POOPS AS THE ECMWF IS DRY WHILE THE GFS HAS
SOME LOW POPS.

ON TUE, THERE CUD BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP, WHICH THE MDLS
DEVELOP DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME FROM AN AREA OF
LOW PRES WHICH TAKES SHAPE FROM SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE
SERN STATES AND MOVES NEWD. THE GFS HAS SOME NRN STREAM AND SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND PSBLY ANOTHER WK FROPA. AGAIN, FOR NOW WILL JUST
CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

TEMPS WILL GENLY AVERAGE NR NRML, EXCEPT FOR SUN IN THE COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE STRONG FROPA, WHERE TEMPS WILL AVERAGE MUCH
BELOW NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGER THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
VFR AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, MOSTLY IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

TONIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CIGS REDEVELOP LATER ON WITH POSSIBLY PATCHY
1-3MI FOG AFTER 06Z/2. LIGHT NORTH WIND.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR CONDS PSBL EARLY OTHERWISE VFR. PSBL LINGERING SHRA EARLY
AT MIV/ACY, OTHERWISE DRY.  MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI..VFR ERLY. PSBL MVFR W LATE. RAIN CHCS LATE W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH INCREASING RAIN CHCS FROM W TO E BY
DAYBREAK. RAIN CUD BE HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH APPROACHING CDFNT. MDT
CONFIDENCE, THOUGH LOW TO MDT ON FRONTAL POSN.

SAT...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES...INCREASING TO VFR.
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E DURG THE MRNG/AFTERNOON. CFP LATE MRNG ERLY
AFTERNOON FROM W TO E AND WSHFT FROM SE TO WNW. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY RISE IN SEAS AT BUOY9 TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. GIVEN TEXAS TOWER SEAS ARE ALSO SLOWLY
RISING, WE WILL EXTEND THE SCA FARTHER DOWN THE COAST.

TWO WEEKS AFTER RESTORATION OF A LENGTHY BUOY 44065 OUTAGE...DATA
TRANSMISSION TOPPED AT 4PM THIS PAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NDBC HAS
BEEN CONTACTED AND THEY WILL LET US KNOW WHAT THE PROBLEM IS.

BASICALLY NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 20
KT. SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT AND GENERALLY 1-2 FT DELAWARE BAY.


OUTLOOK...
THU...ELY FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THERE COULD BE SCA CONDS ONCE
AGAIN, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE NRN WATERS. HOWEVER, THU IS A
MARGINAL DAY AND THE LATEST GUID INDICATES WE MAY FALL JUST SHORT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT DURG
THIS PD AS SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

SAT...STRONG CFP. WINDSHIFT TO NW OR WNW. SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AND SCA WILL CONTINUE. BEST CHC FOR SCA WIND DURG THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MONTHLY CLM`S HAVE BEEN RUN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/GIGI/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 011458
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1058 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO BY FRIDAY AND ITS
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP NOT AS GENEROUS WITH SHOWERS
FOR TODAY, COMING IN CLOSER TO NSSL SOLUTION. MORNING SOUNDINGS
ARE PRETTY MOIST WITH THE CCL WITHIN REACH. SO WHILE WE LOWERED
POPS A BIT, WE KEPT CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS PRETTY MUCH AS IS. THE
LATTER HAS CORROBORATION FROM THE MORNING SOUNDINGS TOO.

UPPER LOW CROSSING PA/NJ TODAY WITH MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS-SPRINKLES OVER THE AREA AT 530 AM SHOULD
EVENTUALLY TEND TO DRY OUT LATE TODAY. PWAT CONTINUES 1.2 INCHES
SO SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...MAINLY EASTERN
AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. 00Z/1 NSSL WRF FAVORS EASTERN NJ.

OVERCAST SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD BRIGHTEN OR THIN A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON TO REVEAL A LITTLE SS.

TEMPS/WINDS/DEWS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 100Z/1 NAM/GFS MOS.  .

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THERE MAY BE EVENING PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE BL RH SATURATES AND
DEVELOPS LOWS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG.

GFS MOS TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO COLD SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FAR
TO THE EAST AND THE CAA IS WEAK. USED THE NAM MOS TEMPS FOR LOWS WHICH
ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS. EVEN THESE WERE RAISED
A DEGREE OR TWO.

DEWS WERE NAM MOS.

WINDS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS

POPS WERE BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS AND LOWERED IN THE SW PORTION OF THE FCST
AREA USING THE 21Z/30 SREF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE CAN MARITIMES WILL NOSE WWD OVER THE
AREA ON THU AND EXPECT A DRY DAY BUT ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AS ELY
FLOW WILL PERSIST. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THU NIGHT
INTO ERLY FRI WITH LOW PRES WELL OFF THE CST OF NEW ENG.

ATTN THEN TURNS TO THE CNTRL CONUS WHERE A POTENT LOW PRES SYS WILL
TAKE SHAPE BEGINNING THU NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO OR TOWARD ONTARIO ON FRI.

THE MDLS ALL AGREE ON THE FACT THAT THIS LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INTO OR TOWARD  ONTARIO DURG THIS TIME FRAME, THEY DIFFER A BIT
ON THE DETAILS, AS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. THE GFS, NAM/WRF AND CMC
HAVE A SINGLE LOW STRUCTURE AND BRING THE LOW INTO ONTARIO BY
03/18Z. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF HAS A DOUBLE LOW STRUCTURE AT
03/18Z AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER AT THIS TIME FRAME (BY ABOUT 10
MB) THAN ANY OTHER MDL.

IT THEN IS INTERESTING THAT BY 78 AND 84 HRS THE ECMWF MDL HAS THE
STRONGEST SOLN WITH THE LOW, BUT IT IS FURTHER S AND E WITH THE
LOW CENTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS.

THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL BEGIN MOVG EWD AND THERE CUD BE
SOME PRECIP IN WRN AREAS BY SUNSET FRI, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E FRI NIGHT AND THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFS WITH THE MDLS AS WELL. THE GFS AND NAM/WRF GENLY KEEP
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THRU DAYBREAK SAT WHILE
THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE FURTHER E. THE GFS THEN BRINGS THE HEAVIER
PRECIP THRU DURG THE MRNG HOURS WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS
FASTER. THEN PRECIP ENDS FROM SW TO NE DURG THE DAY BEHIND THE CFP
AS A WSHFT FROM E TO WNW BRINGS IN DRIER AIR. THERE IS SILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MDLS TO KEEP CONFIDENCE LWR THAN AVERAGE. THE
ECMWF IS OFTEN TOO SLOW WITH FRONTAL TIMING, SO ITS INTERESTING
THAT IT IS THE FASTER SOLN HERE.

ONE NOTICEABLE TREND IN THE 01/00 GUID IS IMPROVEMENT IN THE
SECOND HALF OF SAT, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THIS TIME FOR THIS
FCST ISSUANCE.

WITH THAT SAID, HIGH PRES MOVES IN BEHIND CFP AND SAT NIGHT THRU
MON LOOK DRY.

ANOTHER WK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MON, BUT ATTM NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN POOPS AS THE ECMWF IS DRY WHILE THE GFS HAS
SOME LOW POPS.

ON TUE, THERE CUD BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP, WHICH THE MDLS
DEVELOP DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME FROM AN AREA OF
LOW PRES WHICH TAKES SHAPE FROM SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE
SERN STATES AND MOVES NEWD. THE GFS HAS SOME NRN STREAM AND SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND PSBLY ANOTHER WK FROPA. AGAIN, FOR NOW WILL JUST
CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

TEMPS WILL GENLY AVERAGE NR NRML, EXCEPT FOR SUN IN THE COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE STRONG FROPA, WHERE TEMPS WILL AVERAGE MUCH
BELOW NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGER THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
VFR AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, MOSTLY IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

TONIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CIGS REDEVELOP LATER ON WITH POSSIBLY PATCHY
1-3MI FOG AFTER 06Z/2. LIGHT NORTH WIND.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR CONDS PSBL EARLY OTHERWISE VFR. PSBL LINGERING SHRA EARLY
AT MIV/ACY, OTHERWISE DRY.  MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI..VFR ERLY. PSBL MVFR W LATE. RAIN CHCS LATE W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH INCREASING RAIN CHCS FROM W TO E BY
DAYBREAK. RAIN CUD BE HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH APPROACHING CDFNT. MDT
CONFIDENCE, THOUGH LOW TO MDT ON FRONTAL POSN.

SAT...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES...INCREASING TO VFR.
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E DURG THE MRNG/AFTERNOON. CFP LATE MRNG ERLY
AFTERNOON FROM W TO E AND WSHFT FROM SE TO WNW. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY RISE IN SEAS AT BUOY9 TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. GIVEN TEXAS TOWER SEAS ARE ALSO SLOWLY
RISING, WE WILL EXTEND THE SCA FARTHER DOWN THE COAST.

TWO WEEKS AFTER RESTORATION OF A LENGTHY BUOY 44065 OUTAGE...DATA
TRANSMISSION TOPPED AT 4PM THIS PAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NDBC HAS
BEEN CONTACTED AND THEY WILL LET US KNOW WHAT THE PROBLEM IS.

BASICALLY NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 20
KT. SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT AND GENERALLY 1-2 FT DELAWARE BAY.


OUTLOOK...
THU...ELY FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THERE COULD BE SCA CONDS ONCE
AGAIN, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE NRN WATERS. HOWEVER, THU IS A
MARGINAL DAY AND THE LATEST GUID INDICATES WE MAY FALL JUST SHORT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT DURG
THIS PD AS SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

SAT...STRONG CFP. WINDSHIFT TO NW OR WNW. SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AND SCA WILL CONTINUE. BEST CHC FOR SCA WIND DURG THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MONTHLY CLM`S HAVE BEEN RUN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/GIGI/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 011259
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
859 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO BY FRIDAY AND ITS
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP NOT AS GENEROUS WITH SHOWERS
FOR TODAY, COMING IN CLOSER TO NSSL SOLUTION. MORNING SOUNDINGS
ARE PRETTY MOIST WITH THE CCL WITHIN REACH. SO WHILE WE LOWERED
POPS A BIT, WE KEPT CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS PRETTY MUCH AS IS. THE
LATTER HAS CORROBORATION FROM THE MORNING SOUNDINGS TOO.

UPPER LOW CROSSING PA/NJ TODAY WITH MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS-SPRINKLES OVER THE AREA AT 530 AM SHOULD
EVENTUALLY TEND TO DRY OUT LATE TODAY. PWAT CONTINUES 1.2 INCHES
SO SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...MAINLY EASTERN
AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. 00Z/1 NSSL WRF FAVORS EASTERN NJ.

OVERCAST SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD BRIGHTEN OR THIN A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON TO REVEAL A LITTLE SS.

TEMPS/WINDS/DEWS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 100Z/1 NAM/GFS MOS.  .

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THERE MAY BE EVENING PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE BL RH SATURATES AND
DEVELOPS LOWS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG.

GFS MOS TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO COLD SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FAR
TO THE EAST AND THE CAA IS WEAK. USED THE NAM MOS TEMPS FOR LOWS WHICH
ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS. EVEN THESE WERE RAISED
A DEGREE OR TWO.

DEWS WERE NAM MOS.

WINDS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS

POPS WERE BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS AND LOWERED IN THE SW PORTION OF THE FCST
AREA USING THE 21Z/30 SREF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE CAN MARITIMES WILL NOSE WWD OVER THE
AREA ON THU AND EXPECT A DRY DAY BUT ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AS ELY
FLOW WILL PERSIST. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THU NIGHT
INTO ERLY FRI WITH LOW PRES WELL OFF THE CST OF NEW ENG.

ATTN THEN TURNS TO THE CNTRL CONUS WHERE A POTENT LOW PRES SYS WILL
TAKE SHAPE BEGINNING THU NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO OR TOWARD ONTARIO ON FRI.

THE MDLS ALL AGREE ON THE FACT THAT THIS LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INTO OR TOWARD  ONTARIO DURG THIS TIME FRAME, THEY DIFFER A BIT
ON THE DETAILS, AS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. THE GFS, NAM/WRF AND CMC
HAVE A SINGLE LOW STRUCTURE AND BRING THE LOW INTO ONTARIO BY
03/18Z. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF HAS A DOUBLE LOW STRUCTURE AT
03/18Z AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER AT THIS TIME FRAME (BY ABOUT 10
MB) THAN ANY OTHER MDL.

IT THEN IS INTERESTING THAT BY 78 AND 84 HRS THE ECMWF MDL HAS THE
STRONGEST SOLN WITH THE LOW, BUT IT IS FURTHER S AND E WITH THE
LOW CENTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS.

THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL BEGIN MOVG EWD AND THERE CUD BE
SOME PRECIP IN WRN AREAS BY SUNSET FRI, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E FRI NIGHT AND THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFS WITH THE MDLS AS WELL. THE GFS AND NAM/WRF GENLY KEEP
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THRU DAYBREAK SAT WHILE
THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE FURTHER E. THE GFS THEN BRINGS THE HEAVIER
PRECIP THRU DURG THE MRNG HOURS WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS
FASTER. THEN PRECIP ENDS FROM SW TO NE DURG THE DAY BEHIND THE CFP
AS A WSHFT FROM E TO WNW BRINGS IN DRIER AIR. THERE IS SILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MDLS TO KEEP CONFIDENCE LWR THAN AVERAGE. THE
ECMWF IS OFTEN TOO SLOW WITH FRONTAL TIMING, SO ITS INTERESTING
THAT IT IS THE FASTER SOLN HERE.

ONE NOTICEABLE TREND IN THE 01/00 GUID IS IMPROVEMENT IN THE
SECOND HALF OF SAT, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THIS TIME FOR THIS
FCST ISSUANCE.

WITH THAT SAID, HIGH PRES MOVES IN BEHIND CFP AND SAT NIGHT THRU
MON LOOK DRY.

ANOTHER WK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MON, BUT ATTM NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN POOPS AS THE ECMWF IS DRY WHILE THE GFS HAS
SOME LOW POPS.

ON TUE, THERE CUD BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP, WHICH THE MDLS
DEVELOP DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME FROM AN AREA OF
LOW PRES WHICH TAKES SHAPE FROM SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE
SERN STATES AND MOVES NEWD. THE GFS HAS SOME NRN STREAM AND SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND PSBLY ANOTHER WK FROPA. AGAIN, FOR NOW WILL JUST
CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

TEMPS WILL GENLY AVERAGE NR NRML, EXCEPT FOR SUN IN THE COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE STRONG FROPA, WHERE TEMPS WILL AVERAGE MUCH
BELOW NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGER THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
VFR AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, MOSTLY IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

TONIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CIGS REDEVELOP LATER ON WITH POSSIBLY PATCHY
1-3MI FOG AFTER 06Z/2. LIGHT NORTH WIND.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR CONDS PSBL EARLY OTHERWISE VFR. PSBL LINGERING SHRA EARLY
AT MIV/ACY, OTHERWISE DRY.  MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI..VFR ERLY. PSBL MVFR W LATE. RAIN CHCS LATE W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH INCREASING RAIN CHCS FROM W TO E BY
DAYBREAK. RAIN CUD BE HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH APPROACHING CDFNT. MDT
CONFIDENCE, THOUGH LOW TO MDT ON FRONTAL POSN.

SAT...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES...INCREASING TO VFR.
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E DURG THE MRNG/AFTERNOON. CFP LATE MRNG ERLY
AFTERNOON FROM W TO E AND WSHFT FROM SE TO WNW. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
TWO WEEKS AFTER RESTORATION OF A LENGTHY BUOY 44065 OUTAGE...DATA
TRANSMISSION TOPPED AT 4PM THIS PAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NDBC HAS
BEEN CONTACTED AND THEY WILL LET US KNOW WHAT THE PROBLEM IS.

IN THE MEANTIME...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE FCST FOR THE NNJ
WATERS TODAY. WE DONT REALLY KNOW WHAT THE SEAS ARE DOING OFF THE
NNJ COAST.

NO EXPANSION OF THE SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS IN OUR 330
AM FCST.

BASICALLY NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 20
KT. SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT NORTHERN WATERS...NEAR 4 FT SOUTHERN
WATERS AND GENERALLY 1-2 FT DELAWARE BAY.


OUTLOOK...
THU...ELY FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THERE COULD BE SCA CONDS ONCE
AGAIN, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE NRN WATERS. HOWEVER, THU IS A
MARGINAL DAY AND THE LATEST GUID INDICATES WE MAY FALL JUST SHORT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT DURG
THIS PD AS SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

SAT...STRONG CFP. WINDSHIFT TO NW OR WNW. SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AND SCA WILL CONTINUE. BEST CHC FOR SCA WIND DURG THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MONTHLY CLM`S HAVE BEEN RUN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 011259
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
859 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO BY FRIDAY AND ITS
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP NOT AS GENEROUS WITH SHOWERS
FOR TODAY, COMING IN CLOSER TO NSSL SOLUTION. MORNING SOUNDINGS
ARE PRETTY MOIST WITH THE CCL WITHIN REACH. SO WHILE WE LOWERED
POPS A BIT, WE KEPT CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS PRETTY MUCH AS IS. THE
LATTER HAS CORROBORATION FROM THE MORNING SOUNDINGS TOO.

UPPER LOW CROSSING PA/NJ TODAY WITH MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS-SPRINKLES OVER THE AREA AT 530 AM SHOULD
EVENTUALLY TEND TO DRY OUT LATE TODAY. PWAT CONTINUES 1.2 INCHES
SO SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...MAINLY EASTERN
AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. 00Z/1 NSSL WRF FAVORS EASTERN NJ.

OVERCAST SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD BRIGHTEN OR THIN A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON TO REVEAL A LITTLE SS.

TEMPS/WINDS/DEWS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 100Z/1 NAM/GFS MOS.  .

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THERE MAY BE EVENING PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE BL RH SATURATES AND
DEVELOPS LOWS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG.

GFS MOS TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO COLD SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FAR
TO THE EAST AND THE CAA IS WEAK. USED THE NAM MOS TEMPS FOR LOWS WHICH
ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS. EVEN THESE WERE RAISED
A DEGREE OR TWO.

DEWS WERE NAM MOS.

WINDS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS

POPS WERE BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS AND LOWERED IN THE SW PORTION OF THE FCST
AREA USING THE 21Z/30 SREF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE CAN MARITIMES WILL NOSE WWD OVER THE
AREA ON THU AND EXPECT A DRY DAY BUT ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AS ELY
FLOW WILL PERSIST. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THU NIGHT
INTO ERLY FRI WITH LOW PRES WELL OFF THE CST OF NEW ENG.

ATTN THEN TURNS TO THE CNTRL CONUS WHERE A POTENT LOW PRES SYS WILL
TAKE SHAPE BEGINNING THU NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO OR TOWARD ONTARIO ON FRI.

THE MDLS ALL AGREE ON THE FACT THAT THIS LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INTO OR TOWARD  ONTARIO DURG THIS TIME FRAME, THEY DIFFER A BIT
ON THE DETAILS, AS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. THE GFS, NAM/WRF AND CMC
HAVE A SINGLE LOW STRUCTURE AND BRING THE LOW INTO ONTARIO BY
03/18Z. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF HAS A DOUBLE LOW STRUCTURE AT
03/18Z AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER AT THIS TIME FRAME (BY ABOUT 10
MB) THAN ANY OTHER MDL.

IT THEN IS INTERESTING THAT BY 78 AND 84 HRS THE ECMWF MDL HAS THE
STRONGEST SOLN WITH THE LOW, BUT IT IS FURTHER S AND E WITH THE
LOW CENTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS.

THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL BEGIN MOVG EWD AND THERE CUD BE
SOME PRECIP IN WRN AREAS BY SUNSET FRI, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E FRI NIGHT AND THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFS WITH THE MDLS AS WELL. THE GFS AND NAM/WRF GENLY KEEP
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THRU DAYBREAK SAT WHILE
THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE FURTHER E. THE GFS THEN BRINGS THE HEAVIER
PRECIP THRU DURG THE MRNG HOURS WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS
FASTER. THEN PRECIP ENDS FROM SW TO NE DURG THE DAY BEHIND THE CFP
AS A WSHFT FROM E TO WNW BRINGS IN DRIER AIR. THERE IS SILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MDLS TO KEEP CONFIDENCE LWR THAN AVERAGE. THE
ECMWF IS OFTEN TOO SLOW WITH FRONTAL TIMING, SO ITS INTERESTING
THAT IT IS THE FASTER SOLN HERE.

ONE NOTICEABLE TREND IN THE 01/00 GUID IS IMPROVEMENT IN THE
SECOND HALF OF SAT, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THIS TIME FOR THIS
FCST ISSUANCE.

WITH THAT SAID, HIGH PRES MOVES IN BEHIND CFP AND SAT NIGHT THRU
MON LOOK DRY.

ANOTHER WK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MON, BUT ATTM NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN POOPS AS THE ECMWF IS DRY WHILE THE GFS HAS
SOME LOW POPS.

ON TUE, THERE CUD BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP, WHICH THE MDLS
DEVELOP DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME FROM AN AREA OF
LOW PRES WHICH TAKES SHAPE FROM SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE
SERN STATES AND MOVES NEWD. THE GFS HAS SOME NRN STREAM AND SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND PSBLY ANOTHER WK FROPA. AGAIN, FOR NOW WILL JUST
CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

TEMPS WILL GENLY AVERAGE NR NRML, EXCEPT FOR SUN IN THE COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE STRONG FROPA, WHERE TEMPS WILL AVERAGE MUCH
BELOW NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGER THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
VFR AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, MOSTLY IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

TONIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CIGS REDEVELOP LATER ON WITH POSSIBLY PATCHY
1-3MI FOG AFTER 06Z/2. LIGHT NORTH WIND.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR CONDS PSBL EARLY OTHERWISE VFR. PSBL LINGERING SHRA EARLY
AT MIV/ACY, OTHERWISE DRY.  MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI..VFR ERLY. PSBL MVFR W LATE. RAIN CHCS LATE W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH INCREASING RAIN CHCS FROM W TO E BY
DAYBREAK. RAIN CUD BE HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH APPROACHING CDFNT. MDT
CONFIDENCE, THOUGH LOW TO MDT ON FRONTAL POSN.

SAT...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES...INCREASING TO VFR.
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E DURG THE MRNG/AFTERNOON. CFP LATE MRNG ERLY
AFTERNOON FROM W TO E AND WSHFT FROM SE TO WNW. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
TWO WEEKS AFTER RESTORATION OF A LENGTHY BUOY 44065 OUTAGE...DATA
TRANSMISSION TOPPED AT 4PM THIS PAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NDBC HAS
BEEN CONTACTED AND THEY WILL LET US KNOW WHAT THE PROBLEM IS.

IN THE MEANTIME...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE FCST FOR THE NNJ
WATERS TODAY. WE DONT REALLY KNOW WHAT THE SEAS ARE DOING OFF THE
NNJ COAST.

NO EXPANSION OF THE SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS IN OUR 330
AM FCST.

BASICALLY NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 20
KT. SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT NORTHERN WATERS...NEAR 4 FT SOUTHERN
WATERS AND GENERALLY 1-2 FT DELAWARE BAY.


OUTLOOK...
THU...ELY FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THERE COULD BE SCA CONDS ONCE
AGAIN, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE NRN WATERS. HOWEVER, THU IS A
MARGINAL DAY AND THE LATEST GUID INDICATES WE MAY FALL JUST SHORT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT DURG
THIS PD AS SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

SAT...STRONG CFP. WINDSHIFT TO NW OR WNW. SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AND SCA WILL CONTINUE. BEST CHC FOR SCA WIND DURG THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MONTHLY CLM`S HAVE BEEN RUN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS61 KPHI 010941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
541 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO BY FRIDAY AND ITS
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW CROSSING PA/NJ TODAY WITH MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS-SPRINKLES OVER THE AREA AT 530 AM SHOULD
EVENTUALLY TEND TO DRY OUT LATE TODAY. PWAT CONTINUES 1.2 INCHES
SO SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...MAINLY EASTERN
AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. 00Z/1 NSSL WRF FAVORS EASTERN NJ.

OVERCAST SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD BRIGHTEN OR THIN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON TO
REVEAL A LITTLE SS.

TEMPS/WINDS/DEWS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 100Z/1 NAM/GFS MOS.  POPS
ARE A 3 WAY BLEND OF THE 00Z/1 GFS/NAM MOS AND THE 21Z/30 SREF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THERE MAY BE EVENING PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE BL RH SATURATES AND
DEVELOPS LOWS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG.

GFS MOS TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO COLD SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FAR
TO THE EAST AND THE CAA IS WEAK. USED THE NAM MOS TEMPS FOR LOWS WHICH
ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS. EVEN THESE WERE RAISED
A DEGREE OR TWO.

DEWS WERE NAM MOS.

WINDS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS

POPS WERE BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS AND LOWERED IN THE SW PORTION OF THE FCST
AREA USING THE 21Z/30 SREF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE CAN MARITIMES WILL NOSE WWD OVER THE
AREA ON THU AND EXPECT A DRY DAY BUT ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AS ELY
FLOW WILL PERSIST. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THU NIGHT
INTO ERLY FRI WITH LOW PRES WELL OFF THE CST OF NEW ENG.

ATTN THEN TURNS TO THE CNTRL CONUS WHERE A POTENT LOW PRES SYS WILL
TAKE SHAPE BEGINNING THU NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO OR TOWARD ONTARIO ON FRI.

THE MDLS ALL AGREE ON THE FACT THAT THIS LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INTO OR TOWARD  ONTARIO DURG THIS TIME FRAME, THEY DIFFER A BIT
ON THE DETAILS, AS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. THE GFS, NAM/WRF AND CMC
HAVE A SINGLE LOW STRUCTURE AND BRING THE LOW INTO ONTARIO BY
03/18Z. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF HAS A DOUBLE LOW STRUCTURE AT
03/18Z AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER AT THIS TIME FRAME (BY ABOUT 10
MB) THAN ANY OTHER MDL.

IT THEN IS INTERESTING THAT BY 78 AND 84 HRS THE ECMWF MDL HAS THE
STRONGEST SOLN WITH THE LOW, BUT IT IS FURTHER S AND E WITH THE
LOW CENTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS.

THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL BEGIN MOVG EWD AND THERE CUD BE
SOME PRECIP IN WRN AREAS BY SUNSET FRI, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E FRI NIGHT AND THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFS WITH THE MDLS AS WELL. THE GFS AND NAM/WRF GENLY KEEP
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THRU DAYBREAK SAT WHILE
THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE FURTHER E. THE GFS THEN BRINGS THE HEAVIER
PRECIP THRU DURG THE MRNG HOURS WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS
FASTER. THEN PRECIP ENDS FROM SW TO NE DURG THE DAY BEHIND THE CFP
AS A WSHFT FROM E TO WNW BRINGS IN DRIER AIR. THERE IS SILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MDLS TO KEEP CONFIDENCE LWR THAN AVERAGE. THE
ECMWF IS OFTEN TOO SLOW WITH FRONTAL TIMING, SO ITS INTERESTING
THAT IT IS THE FASTER SOLN HERE.

ONE NOTICEABLE TREND IN THE 01/00 GUID IS IMPROVEMENT IN THE
SECOND HALF OF SAT, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THIS TIME FOR THIS
FCST ISSUANCE.

WITH THAT SAID, HIGH PRES MOVES IN BEHIND CFP AND SAT NIGHT THRU
MON LOOK DRY.

ANOTHER WK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MON, BUT ATTM NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN POOPS AS THE ECMWF IS DRY WHILE THE GFS HAS
SOME LOW POPS.

ON TUE, THERE CUD BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP, WHICH THE MDLS
DEVELOP DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME FROM AN AREA OF
LOW PRES WHICH TAKES SHAPE FROM SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE
SERN STATES AND MOVES NEWD. THE GFS HAS SOME NRN STREAM AND SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND PSBLY ANOTHER WK FROPA. AGAIN, FOR NOW WILL JUST
CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

TEMPS WILL GENLY AVERAGE NR NRML, EXCEPT FOR SUN IN THE COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE STRONG FROPA, WHERE TEMPS WILL AVERAGE MUCH
BELOW NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...GENERALLY VARIABLE MVFR AND IFR CIGS. SCT SHOWERS.
LIGHT NE WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGER THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
VFR AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, MOSTLY IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

TONIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CIGS REDEVELOP LATER ON WITH POSSIBLY PATCHY
1-3MI FOG AFTER 06Z/2. LIGHT NORTH WIND.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR CONDS PSBL EARLY OTHERWISE VFR. PSBL LINGERING SHRA EARLY
AT MIV/ACY, OTHERWISE DRY.  MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI..VFR ERLY. PSBL MVFR W LATE. RAIN CHCS LATE W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH INCREASING RAIN CHCS FROM W TO E BY
DAYBREAK. RAIN CUD BE HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH APPROACHING CDFNT. MDT
CONFIDENCE, THOUGH LOW TO MDT ON FRONTAL POSN.

SAT...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES...INCREASING TO VFR.
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E DURG THE MRNG/AFTERNOON. CFP LATE MRNG ERLY
AFTERNOON FROM W TO E AND WSHFT FROM SE TO WNW. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
TWO WEEKS AFTER RESTORATION OF A LENGTHY BUOY 44065 OUTAGE...DATA
TRANSMISSION TOPPED AT 4PM THIS PAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NDBC HAS
BEEN CONTACTED AND THEY WILL LET US KNOW WHAT THE PROBLEM IS.

IN THE MEANTIME...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE FCST FOR THE NNJ
WATERS TODAY. WE DONT REALLY KNOW WHAT THE SEAS ARE DOING OFF THE
NNJ COAST.

NO EXPANSION OF THE SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS IN OUR 330
AM FCST.

BASICALLY NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 20
KT. SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT NORTHERN WATERS...NEAR 4 FT SOUTHERN
WATERS AND GENERALLY 1-2 FT DELAWARE BAY.


OUTLOOK...
THU...ELY FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THERE COULD BE SCA CONDS ONCE
AGAIN, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE NRN WATERS. HOWEVER, THU IS A
MARGINAL DAY AND THE LATEST GUID INDICATES WE MAY FALL JUST SHORT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT DURG
THIS PD AS SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

SAT...STRONG CFP. WINDSHIFT TO NW OR WNW. SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AND SCA WILL CONTINUE. BEST CHC FOR SCA WIND DURG THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MONTHLY CLM`S HAVE BEEN RUN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 539
SHORT TERM...DRAG 539
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 539
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG 539
CLIMATE...539







000
FXUS61 KPHI 010941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
541 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO BY FRIDAY AND ITS
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER LOW CROSSING PA/NJ TODAY WITH MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW.

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS-SPRINKLES OVER THE AREA AT 530 AM SHOULD
EVENTUALLY TEND TO DRY OUT LATE TODAY. PWAT CONTINUES 1.2 INCHES
SO SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...MAINLY EASTERN
AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. 00Z/1 NSSL WRF FAVORS EASTERN NJ.

OVERCAST SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD BRIGHTEN OR THIN A BIT THIS AFTERNOON TO
REVEAL A LITTLE SS.

TEMPS/WINDS/DEWS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 100Z/1 NAM/GFS MOS.  POPS
ARE A 3 WAY BLEND OF THE 00Z/1 GFS/NAM MOS AND THE 21Z/30 SREF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THERE MAY BE EVENING PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE BL RH SATURATES AND
DEVELOPS LOWS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG.

GFS MOS TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO COLD SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FAR
TO THE EAST AND THE CAA IS WEAK. USED THE NAM MOS TEMPS FOR LOWS WHICH
ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS. EVEN THESE WERE RAISED
A DEGREE OR TWO.

DEWS WERE NAM MOS.

WINDS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS

POPS WERE BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS AND LOWERED IN THE SW PORTION OF THE FCST
AREA USING THE 21Z/30 SREF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE CAN MARITIMES WILL NOSE WWD OVER THE
AREA ON THU AND EXPECT A DRY DAY BUT ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AS ELY
FLOW WILL PERSIST. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THU NIGHT
INTO ERLY FRI WITH LOW PRES WELL OFF THE CST OF NEW ENG.

ATTN THEN TURNS TO THE CNTRL CONUS WHERE A POTENT LOW PRES SYS WILL
TAKE SHAPE BEGINNING THU NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO OR TOWARD ONTARIO ON FRI.

THE MDLS ALL AGREE ON THE FACT THAT THIS LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INTO OR TOWARD  ONTARIO DURG THIS TIME FRAME, THEY DIFFER A BIT
ON THE DETAILS, AS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. THE GFS, NAM/WRF AND CMC
HAVE A SINGLE LOW STRUCTURE AND BRING THE LOW INTO ONTARIO BY
03/18Z. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF HAS A DOUBLE LOW STRUCTURE AT
03/18Z AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER AT THIS TIME FRAME (BY ABOUT 10
MB) THAN ANY OTHER MDL.

IT THEN IS INTERESTING THAT BY 78 AND 84 HRS THE ECMWF MDL HAS THE
STRONGEST SOLN WITH THE LOW, BUT IT IS FURTHER S AND E WITH THE
LOW CENTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS.

THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL BEGIN MOVG EWD AND THERE CUD BE
SOME PRECIP IN WRN AREAS BY SUNSET FRI, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E FRI NIGHT AND THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFS WITH THE MDLS AS WELL. THE GFS AND NAM/WRF GENLY KEEP
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THRU DAYBREAK SAT WHILE
THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE FURTHER E. THE GFS THEN BRINGS THE HEAVIER
PRECIP THRU DURG THE MRNG HOURS WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS
FASTER. THEN PRECIP ENDS FROM SW TO NE DURG THE DAY BEHIND THE CFP
AS A WSHFT FROM E TO WNW BRINGS IN DRIER AIR. THERE IS SILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MDLS TO KEEP CONFIDENCE LWR THAN AVERAGE. THE
ECMWF IS OFTEN TOO SLOW WITH FRONTAL TIMING, SO ITS INTERESTING
THAT IT IS THE FASTER SOLN HERE.

ONE NOTICEABLE TREND IN THE 01/00 GUID IS IMPROVEMENT IN THE
SECOND HALF OF SAT, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THIS TIME FOR THIS
FCST ISSUANCE.

WITH THAT SAID, HIGH PRES MOVES IN BEHIND CFP AND SAT NIGHT THRU
MON LOOK DRY.

ANOTHER WK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MON, BUT ATTM NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN POOPS AS THE ECMWF IS DRY WHILE THE GFS HAS
SOME LOW POPS.

ON TUE, THERE CUD BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP, WHICH THE MDLS
DEVELOP DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME FROM AN AREA OF
LOW PRES WHICH TAKES SHAPE FROM SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE
SERN STATES AND MOVES NEWD. THE GFS HAS SOME NRN STREAM AND SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND PSBLY ANOTHER WK FROPA. AGAIN, FOR NOW WILL JUST
CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

TEMPS WILL GENLY AVERAGE NR NRML, EXCEPT FOR SUN IN THE COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE STRONG FROPA, WHERE TEMPS WILL AVERAGE MUCH
BELOW NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...GENERALLY VARIABLE MVFR AND IFR CIGS. SCT SHOWERS.
LIGHT NE WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGER THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
VFR AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, MOSTLY IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

TONIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CIGS REDEVELOP LATER ON WITH POSSIBLY PATCHY
1-3MI FOG AFTER 06Z/2. LIGHT NORTH WIND.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR CONDS PSBL EARLY OTHERWISE VFR. PSBL LINGERING SHRA EARLY
AT MIV/ACY, OTHERWISE DRY.  MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI..VFR ERLY. PSBL MVFR W LATE. RAIN CHCS LATE W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH INCREASING RAIN CHCS FROM W TO E BY
DAYBREAK. RAIN CUD BE HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH APPROACHING CDFNT. MDT
CONFIDENCE, THOUGH LOW TO MDT ON FRONTAL POSN.

SAT...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES...INCREASING TO VFR.
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E DURG THE MRNG/AFTERNOON. CFP LATE MRNG ERLY
AFTERNOON FROM W TO E AND WSHFT FROM SE TO WNW. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
TWO WEEKS AFTER RESTORATION OF A LENGTHY BUOY 44065 OUTAGE...DATA
TRANSMISSION TOPPED AT 4PM THIS PAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NDBC HAS
BEEN CONTACTED AND THEY WILL LET US KNOW WHAT THE PROBLEM IS.

IN THE MEANTIME...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE FCST FOR THE NNJ
WATERS TODAY. WE DONT REALLY KNOW WHAT THE SEAS ARE DOING OFF THE
NNJ COAST.

NO EXPANSION OF THE SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS IN OUR 330
AM FCST.

BASICALLY NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 20
KT. SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT NORTHERN WATERS...NEAR 4 FT SOUTHERN
WATERS AND GENERALLY 1-2 FT DELAWARE BAY.


OUTLOOK...
THU...ELY FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THERE COULD BE SCA CONDS ONCE
AGAIN, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE NRN WATERS. HOWEVER, THU IS A
MARGINAL DAY AND THE LATEST GUID INDICATES WE MAY FALL JUST SHORT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT DURG
THIS PD AS SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

SAT...STRONG CFP. WINDSHIFT TO NW OR WNW. SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AND SCA WILL CONTINUE. BEST CHC FOR SCA WIND DURG THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MONTHLY CLM`S HAVE BEEN RUN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 539
SHORT TERM...DRAG 539
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 539
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG 539
CLIMATE...539








000
FXUS61 KPHI 010800
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO BY FRIDAY AND ITS
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TROUGH AXIS SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN EASTERN PA TO CHESAPEAKE BAY HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY SINCE 5Z AND AS OF THIS 0715Z (315
AM)...JUST A FEW SHOWERS VCNTY AND WEST OF KRDG.  HOWEVER...FROM THE
EAST OFF THE ATLC...WE`RE SEEING VIA TPHL INCREASING SHOWER
COVERAGE AND SIGNIFICANT HOURLY RAINFALLS THAT ARE IN THE .03/HR
RANGE.

SO THE POPS TODAY SHOW A DRY SLIT ON THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND
DECENT POPS NW NJ THRU EASTERN NJ AND ALSO VCNTY KRDG.

HAVE DROPPED THE FOG IDEA THIS MORNING...TOO MUCH MULTI LAYER
CLOUDS COMBINED WITH A LIGHT NE WIND WILL PROBABLY PREVENT MUCH
SETTLING OF THE CIGS.  THIS WAS CK`D USING UPS CROSSOVER.


DURING THE DAY TODAY...INSTABILITY SCT SHOWERS ANTICIPATED AS
OUTLINED ABOVE...MAINLY W FRINGE WITH THE ONSHORE SHOWERS THIS
MORNING POSSIBLY DRYING OUT THIS AFTN BUT NOT SURE OF THAT DRYING
OUT. PWAT CONTINUES 1.2 INCHES SO SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL...MAINLY EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND POSSIBLY VCNTY
KRDG. 00Z/1 NSSL WRF FAVORS EASTERN NJ.

OVC SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD BRIGHTEN OR THIN A BIT THIS AFTN TO
REVEAL A LITTLE SS.

TEMPS/WINDS/DEWS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 100Z/1 NAM/GFS MOS.  POPS
ARE A 3 WAY BLEND OF THE 00Z/1 GFS/NAM MOS AND THE 21Z/30 SREF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THERE MAY BE EVENING PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE BL RH SATURATES AND
DEVELOPS LOWS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG.

GFS MOS TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO COLD SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FAR
TO THE EAST AND THE CAA IS WEAK.  USED THE NAM MOS TEMPS FOR LOWS
WHICH ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS.  EVEN THESE WERE
RAISED A DEG OR TWO.

DEWS WERE NAM MOS.

WINDS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS

POPS WERE BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS AND LOWERED IN THE SW PTN OF THE FCST
AREA USING THE 21Z/30 SREF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE CAN MARITIMES WILL NOSE WWD OVER THE
AREA ON THU AND EXPECT A DRY DAY BUT ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AS ELY
FLOW WILL PERSIST. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THU NIGHT
INTO ERLY FRI WITH LOW PRES WELL OFF THE CST OF NEW ENG.

ATTN THEN TURNS TO THE CNTRL CONUS WHERE A POTENT LOW PRES SYS WILL
TAKE SHAPE BEGINNING THU NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO OR TOWARD ONTARIO ON FRI.

THE MDLS ALL AGREE ON THE FACT THAT THIS LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INTO OR TOWARD  ONTARIO DURG THIS TIME FRAME, THEY DIFFER A BIT
ON THE DETAILS, AS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. THE GFS, NAM/WRF AND CMC
HAVE A SINGLE LOW STRUCTURE AND BRING THE LOW INTO ONTARIO BY
03/18Z. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF HAS A DOUBLE LOW STRUCTURE AT
03/18Z AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER AT THIS TIME FRAME (BY ABOUT 10
MB) THAN ANY OTHER MDL.

IT THEN IS INTERESTING THAT BY 78 AND 84 HRS THE ECMWF MDL HAS THE
STRONGEST SOLN WITH THE LOW, BUT IT IS FURTHER S AND E WITH THE
LOW CENTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS.

THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL BEGIN MOVG EWD AND THERE CUD BE
SOME PRECIP IN WRN AREAS BY SUNSET FRI, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E FRI NIGHT AND THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFS WITH THE MDLS AS WELL. THE GFS AND NAM/WRF GENLY KEEP
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THRU DAYBREAK SAT WHILE
THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE FURTHER E. THE GFS THEN BRINGS THE HEAVIER
PRECIP THRU DURG THE MRNG HOURS WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS
FASTER. THEN PRECIP ENDS FROM SW TO NE DURG THE DAY BEHIND THE CFP
AS A WSHFT FROM E TO WNW BRINGS IN DRIER AIR. THERE IS SILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MDLS TO KEEP CONFIDENCE LWR THAN AVERAGE. THE
ECMWF IS OFTEN TOO SLOW WITH FRONTAL TIMING, SO ITS INTERESTING
THAT IT IS THE FASTER SOLN HERE.

ONE NOTICEABLE TREND IN THE 01/00 GUID IS IMPROVEMENT IN THE
SECOND HALF OF SAT, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THIS TIME FOR THIS
FCST ISSUANCE.

WITH THAT SAID, HIGH PRES MOVES IN BEHIND CFP AND SAT NIGHT THRU
MON LOOK DRY.

ANOTHER WK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MON, BUT ATTM NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN POOPS AS THE ECMWF IS DRY WHILE THE GFS HAS
SOME LOW POPS.

ON TUE, THERE CUD BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP, WHICH THE MDLS
DEVELOP DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME FROM AN AREA OF
LOW PRES WHICH TAKES SHAPE FROM SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE
SERN STATES AND MOVES NEWD. THE GFS HAS SOME NRN STREAM AND SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND PSBLY ANOTHER WK FROPA. AGAIN, FOR NOW WILL JUST
CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

TEMPS WILL GENLY AVERAGE NR NRML, EXCEPT FOR SUN IN THE COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE STRONG FROPA, WHERE TEMPS WILL AVERAGE MUCH
BELOW NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...MVFR AND IFR CIGS GRADU LOWER TO IFR MOST OF THE
AREA. SCT SHOWERS IN NJ AND VCNTY KRDG/KMPO. LIGHT NE WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGER THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
VFR AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE TAF SITES. AN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, MOSTLY IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

TONIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CIGS REDEVELOP LATER ON WITH LOW POSSIBLY
PATCHY 1-3MI FOG AFTER 06Z/2. LIGHT NORTH WIND.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR CONDS PSBL EARLY OTHERWISE VFR. PSBL LINGERING SHRA EARLY
AT MIV/ACY, OTHERWISE DRY.  MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI..VFR ERLY. PSBL MVFR W LATE. RAIN CHCS LATE W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH INCREASING RAIN CHCS FROM W TO E BY
DAYBREAK. RAIN CUD BE HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH APPROACHING CDFNT. MDT
CONFIDENCE, THOUGH LOW TO MDT ON FRONTAL POSN.

SAT...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES...INCREASING TO VFR.
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E DURG THE MRNG/AFTN. CFP LATE MRNG ERLY
AFTN FROM W TO E AND WSHFT FROM SE TO WNW. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
TWO WEEKS AFTER RESTORATION OF A LENGTHY BUOY 44065 OUTAGE...DATA
TRANSMISSION TOPPED AT 4PM THIS PAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NDBC HAS
BEEN CONTACTED AND THEY WILL LET US KNOW WHAT THE PROBLEM IS.

IN THE MEANTIME...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE FCST FOR THE NNJ
WATERS TODAY. WE DONT REALLY KNOW WHAT THE SEAS ARE DOING OFF THE
NNJ COAST.

NO EXPANSION OF THE SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS IN OUR 330
AM FCST.

BASICALLY NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 20
KT. SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT NORTHERN WATERS...NEAR 4 FT SOUTHERN
WATERS AND GENERALLY 1-2 FT DELAWARE BAY.


OUTLOOK...
THU...ELY FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THERE COULD BE SCA CONDS ONCE
AGAIN, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE NRN WATERS. HOWEVER, THU IS A
MARGINAL DAY AND THE LATEST GUID INDICATES WE MAY FALL JUST SHORT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT DURG
THIS PD AS SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

SAT...STRONG CFP. WSFHT TO NW OR WNW. SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AND SCA WILL CONTINUE. BEST CHC FOR SCA WIND DURG THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 010800
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL REDEVELOP OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO BY FRIDAY AND ITS
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TROUGH AXIS SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN EASTERN PA TO CHESAPEAKE BAY HAVE
DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY SINCE 5Z AND AS OF THIS 0715Z (315
AM)...JUST A FEW SHOWERS VCNTY AND WEST OF KRDG.  HOWEVER...FROM THE
EAST OFF THE ATLC...WE`RE SEEING VIA TPHL INCREASING SHOWER
COVERAGE AND SIGNIFICANT HOURLY RAINFALLS THAT ARE IN THE .03/HR
RANGE.

SO THE POPS TODAY SHOW A DRY SLIT ON THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND
DECENT POPS NW NJ THRU EASTERN NJ AND ALSO VCNTY KRDG.

HAVE DROPPED THE FOG IDEA THIS MORNING...TOO MUCH MULTI LAYER
CLOUDS COMBINED WITH A LIGHT NE WIND WILL PROBABLY PREVENT MUCH
SETTLING OF THE CIGS.  THIS WAS CK`D USING UPS CROSSOVER.


DURING THE DAY TODAY...INSTABILITY SCT SHOWERS ANTICIPATED AS
OUTLINED ABOVE...MAINLY W FRINGE WITH THE ONSHORE SHOWERS THIS
MORNING POSSIBLY DRYING OUT THIS AFTN BUT NOT SURE OF THAT DRYING
OUT. PWAT CONTINUES 1.2 INCHES SO SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL...MAINLY EASTERN AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND POSSIBLY VCNTY
KRDG. 00Z/1 NSSL WRF FAVORS EASTERN NJ.

OVC SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD BRIGHTEN OR THIN A BIT THIS AFTN TO
REVEAL A LITTLE SS.

TEMPS/WINDS/DEWS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 100Z/1 NAM/GFS MOS.  POPS
ARE A 3 WAY BLEND OF THE 00Z/1 GFS/NAM MOS AND THE 21Z/30 SREF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THERE MAY BE EVENING PARTIAL CLEARING BEFORE BL RH SATURATES AND
DEVELOPS LOWS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG.

GFS MOS TEMPS LOOK FAR TOO COLD SINCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FAR
TO THE EAST AND THE CAA IS WEAK.  USED THE NAM MOS TEMPS FOR LOWS
WHICH ARE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS MOS.  EVEN THESE WERE
RAISED A DEG OR TWO.

DEWS WERE NAM MOS.

WINDS WERE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM MOS

POPS WERE BLENDED GFS/NAM MOS AND LOWERED IN THE SW PTN OF THE FCST
AREA USING THE 21Z/30 SREF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRES OVER THE CAN MARITIMES WILL NOSE WWD OVER THE
AREA ON THU AND EXPECT A DRY DAY BUT ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AS ELY
FLOW WILL PERSIST. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THU NIGHT
INTO ERLY FRI WITH LOW PRES WELL OFF THE CST OF NEW ENG.

ATTN THEN TURNS TO THE CNTRL CONUS WHERE A POTENT LOW PRES SYS WILL
TAKE SHAPE BEGINNING THU NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD AND
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO OR TOWARD ONTARIO ON FRI.

THE MDLS ALL AGREE ON THE FACT THAT THIS LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES
INTO OR TOWARD  ONTARIO DURG THIS TIME FRAME, THEY DIFFER A BIT
ON THE DETAILS, AS SHOULD BE EXPECTED. THE GFS, NAM/WRF AND CMC
HAVE A SINGLE LOW STRUCTURE AND BRING THE LOW INTO ONTARIO BY
03/18Z. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF HAS A DOUBLE LOW STRUCTURE AT
03/18Z AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER AT THIS TIME FRAME (BY ABOUT 10
MB) THAN ANY OTHER MDL.

IT THEN IS INTERESTING THAT BY 78 AND 84 HRS THE ECMWF MDL HAS THE
STRONGEST SOLN WITH THE LOW, BUT IT IS FURTHER S AND E WITH THE
LOW CENTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS.

THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL BEGIN MOVG EWD AND THERE CUD BE
SOME PRECIP IN WRN AREAS BY SUNSET FRI, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

PRECIP CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM W TO E FRI NIGHT AND THERE ARE
TIMING DIFFS WITH THE MDLS AS WELL. THE GFS AND NAM/WRF GENLY KEEP
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THRU DAYBREAK SAT WHILE
THE ECMWF AND CMC ARE FURTHER E. THE GFS THEN BRINGS THE HEAVIER
PRECIP THRU DURG THE MRNG HOURS WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 6 HOURS
FASTER. THEN PRECIP ENDS FROM SW TO NE DURG THE DAY BEHIND THE CFP
AS A WSHFT FROM E TO WNW BRINGS IN DRIER AIR. THERE IS SILL ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MDLS TO KEEP CONFIDENCE LWR THAN AVERAGE. THE
ECMWF IS OFTEN TOO SLOW WITH FRONTAL TIMING, SO ITS INTERESTING
THAT IT IS THE FASTER SOLN HERE.

ONE NOTICEABLE TREND IN THE 01/00 GUID IS IMPROVEMENT IN THE
SECOND HALF OF SAT, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS DURG THIS TIME FOR THIS
FCST ISSUANCE.

WITH THAT SAID, HIGH PRES MOVES IN BEHIND CFP AND SAT NIGHT THRU
MON LOOK DRY.

ANOTHER WK CDFNT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MON, BUT ATTM NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN POOPS AS THE ECMWF IS DRY WHILE THE GFS HAS
SOME LOW POPS.

ON TUE, THERE CUD BE SOME ADDITIONAL PRECIP, WHICH THE MDLS
DEVELOP DIFFERENTLY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME FROM AN AREA OF
LOW PRES WHICH TAKES SHAPE FROM SOME SRN STREAM ENERGY OVER THE
SERN STATES AND MOVES NEWD. THE GFS HAS SOME NRN STREAM AND SRN
STREAM ENERGY AND PSBLY ANOTHER WK FROPA. AGAIN, FOR NOW WILL JUST
CARRY SOME LOW POPS.

TEMPS WILL GENLY AVERAGE NR NRML, EXCEPT FOR SUN IN THE COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE STRONG FROPA, WHERE TEMPS WILL AVERAGE MUCH
BELOW NRML.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...MVFR AND IFR CIGS GRADU LOWER TO IFR MOST OF THE
AREA. SCT SHOWERS IN NJ AND VCNTY KRDG/KMPO. LIGHT NE WIND.

TODAY AFTER 12Z...MVFR/IFR CIGS LINGER THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
VFR AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE TAF SITES. AN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, MOSTLY IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

TONIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CIGS REDEVELOP LATER ON WITH LOW POSSIBLY
PATCHY 1-3MI FOG AFTER 06Z/2. LIGHT NORTH WIND.

OUTLOOK...
THU...MVFR CONDS PSBL EARLY OTHERWISE VFR. PSBL LINGERING SHRA EARLY
AT MIV/ACY, OTHERWISE DRY.  MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRI..VFR ERLY. PSBL MVFR W LATE. RAIN CHCS LATE W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH INCREASING RAIN CHCS FROM W TO E BY
DAYBREAK. RAIN CUD BE HEAVY AT TIMES, WITH APPROACHING CDFNT. MDT
CONFIDENCE, THOUGH LOW TO MDT ON FRONTAL POSN.

SAT...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES...INCREASING TO VFR.
RAIN ENDING FROM W TO E DURG THE MRNG/AFTN. CFP LATE MRNG ERLY
AFTN FROM W TO E AND WSHFT FROM SE TO WNW. MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
TWO WEEKS AFTER RESTORATION OF A LENGTHY BUOY 44065 OUTAGE...DATA
TRANSMISSION TOPPED AT 4PM THIS PAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NDBC HAS
BEEN CONTACTED AND THEY WILL LET US KNOW WHAT THE PROBLEM IS.

IN THE MEANTIME...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE FCST FOR THE NNJ
WATERS TODAY. WE DONT REALLY KNOW WHAT THE SEAS ARE DOING OFF THE
NNJ COAST.

NO EXPANSION OF THE SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS IN OUR 330
AM FCST.

BASICALLY NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND 20
KT. SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT NORTHERN WATERS...NEAR 4 FT SOUTHERN
WATERS AND GENERALLY 1-2 FT DELAWARE BAY.


OUTLOOK...
THU...ELY FLOW WILL PERSIST AND THERE COULD BE SCA CONDS ONCE
AGAIN, WITH A BETTER CHANCE OVER THE NRN WATERS. HOWEVER, THU IS A
MARGINAL DAY AND THE LATEST GUID INDICATES WE MAY FALL JUST SHORT.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT DURG
THIS PD AS SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

SAT...STRONG CFP. WSFHT TO NW OR WNW. SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER
AND SCA WILL CONTINUE. BEST CHC FOR SCA WIND DURG THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG








000
FXUS61 KPHI 010424
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1224 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN PENNSYLVANIA WILL REDEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND
LATE TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN
CANADA WEDGES DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST FRIDAY WITH A POTENT COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSES BY NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TROUGH AXIS SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN EASTERN PA TO CHESAPEAKE BAY AT
MIDNIGHT WILL ROTATE EASTWARD INTO SOUTH PA...NE MD DURING THE
NIGHT WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION IS STATIONARY WEST OF HAZELTON. THIS
IN RESPONSE TO STEERING WIND FIELDS ALOFT...WESTERLY FLOW TO THE
SOUTH AND NEARLY E OR SE FLOW N OF 178.

ALSO LOW TOP SHOWERS WITH SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY ARE SWEEPING
WESTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC INTO NE NJ.

POPS AND WX HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT...REFLECTING HIGHER POPS
NE NJ.

MODELS ARE NOW CARRYING UNSTABLE SWI`S ACROSS NJ OVERNIGHT AND WED
MORNING AND IT WILL NOT SURPRISE TO SEE SHOWERS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVER THE FCST AREA BY DAWN.

MODEL QPF HAS JUST NOT BEEN VERY GOOD IN THIS INFREQUENTLY
OCCURRING PATTERN.

GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG, AND WE
KEPT THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AND AMPLE
MOISTURE. FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A BLEND OF
MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND EXPECT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S, EXCEPT SOME
LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND IN MORE URBAN AREAS. LIGHT NORTH TO
EAST WIND.

WEDNESDAY...INSTABILITY SCT SHOWERS ANTICIPATED...AT LEAST THROUGH
EARLY AFTN. PWAT CONTINUES 1.2 INCHES SO SOME AREAS WILL RECEIVE
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLOUDY THROUGH MIDDAY
BEFORE SOME SLOW THINNING OCCURS LATE-DAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, AND WE EXPECT
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.  LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG RE-EXPAND ACROSS OUR AREA IN LIGHT WIND
FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESS TUCKED DOWN THE COAST
FROM EASTERN CANADA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SUCH FEATURE BEING THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW THAT SHOULD BE TO OUR IMMEDIATE
EAST. THEN WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL PHASING OF A STRONG NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST THAT CARVES OUT A VERY LARGE AND
DEEP CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY...RATHER DRY DAY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY ON
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PORTIONS. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SCRAPES BY BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOME MORE
PROMINENT ON THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LATE DAY SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW-70S; AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGING OVERHEAD A
BIT TOO FAST, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
STILL LINGERING BY AND THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING TROUGH UPSTREAM,
THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD SLIGHTLY BEFORE BREAKING. ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE STABLE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. WE SEE A INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY
INTENSITY BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT INCHES
CLOSER. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MUCH THE SAME, LOW-70S
WITH INCREASING COLD COVER.

SATURDAY...TRANSITION DAY WITH A STRONG FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW PWATS TO CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL MAKING FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL PRETTY DRY ACROSS
THE REGION SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY TO OCCUR
WITH THE POSSIBLE HEAVIER RAIN. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-60S.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.
PREFERRED THE CMC AND UKMET EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD OVER THE GFS AND ECMWF...BOTH OF WHICH HAVE A MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINTY AS SHOWN BY
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS SPREAD IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS FROM THE
MEAN AND THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST MODEL
VERIFICATIONS WHICH INDICATE A LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.

EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
NOSES INTO THE REGION. IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES ENOUGH W/
LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 35-40 RANGE IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR OF OUR CWA. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S
IN SOUTH JERSEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY...PRESENTING THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z...VFR CONDITIONS WEST AND MVFR CIGS EAST
DEGRADING TO IFR CONDITIONS EAST AND POTENTIAL IFR CIGS WEST. SHOWERS
COASTAL NNJ AND SHOWERS VCNTY KRDG AND KMPO WITH CHANCE OF THUNDER
VCNTY KRDG.


WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH
THE MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING VFR AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR THE TAF SITES. AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER REMAINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED,
MOSTLY IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS REDEVELOP IN LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY
FOG.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR EARLY BECOMING VFR. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWER EARLY AT MIV/ACY, OTHERWISE DRY.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES LATE, OVERSPREADS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS. WINDS BACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN HEAVY RAIN, TRENDING VFR. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
TWO WEEKS AFTER RESTORATION OF A LENGTHY BUOY 44065 OUTAGE...DATA
TRANSMISSION TOPPED AT 4PM THIS PAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NDBC HAS
BEEN CONTACTED AND THEY WILL LET US KNOW WHAT THE PROBLEM IS.

IN THE MEANTIME...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE FCST FOR THE NNJ
WATERS TODAY. WE DONT REALLY KNOW WHAT THE SEAS ARE DOING OFF THE
NNJ COAST.

NO EXPANSION OF THE SCA IS ANTICIPATED ATTM FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WATERS IN OUR 330 AM FCST.

BASICALLY NE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAX GUSTS AROUND
20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT NORTHERN WATERS...NEAR 4 FT SOUTHERN
WATERS AND GENERALLY 1-2 FT DELAWARE BAY.


OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON OUR
WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE WITH THE EASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 FEET. WINDS BEGIN TO BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY AND WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING, WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER/DRAG 1224A
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLINE/ROBERTSON 1224A
SHORT TERM...DRAG/KLINE 1224A
LONG TERM...FRANCK/HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/KLINE/ROBERTSON 1224A
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/KLINE 1224A







000
FXUS61 KPHI 010122 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
922 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH LATER ON WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY BEFORE A MORE POTENT COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
BREAK BETWEEN COLD FRONTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING AND IS EVER SO SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THIS
AREA AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY A STRONG DIFFLUENT AREA ALOFT AND
VORTICITY IMPULSE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MEANWHILE, A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A CONTINUED EASTERLY TO
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE. SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY WEAKENING BEFORE IT GETS TO OUR AREA,
HOWEVER, SINCE IT IS APPROACHING THE AREA, HAVE DECIDED TO
INCREASE THE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND EXTEND THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY STILL DEVELOP ANYWHERE AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA.

GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG, AND WE
KEPT THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AND AMPLE
MOISTURE. FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A BLEND OF
MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND EXPECT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S, EXCEPT SOME
LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND IN MORE URBAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW
WILL BE SWINGING BY TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND BY LATE IN THE DAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH MORNING TO ABOUT MIDDAY, AND
WE SLOWLY TRAIL POPS OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY
CLOUDY THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SOME SLOW THINNING OCCURS LATE-DAY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY, AND WE EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SUCH FEATURE BEING THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW THAT SHOULD BE TO OUR IMMEDIATE
EAST. THEN WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL PHASING OF A STRONG NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST THAT CARVES OUT A VERY LARGE AND
DEEP CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY...RATHER DRY DAY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY ON
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PORTIONS. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SCRAPES BY BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOME MORE
PROMINENT ON THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LATE DAY SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW-70S; AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGING OVERHEAD A
BIT TOO FAST, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
STILL LINGERING BY AND THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING TROUGH UPSTREAM,
THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD SLIGHTLY BEFORE BREAKING. ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE STABLE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. WE SEE A INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY
INTENSITY BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT INCHES
CLOSER. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MUCH THE SAME, LOW-70S
WITH INCREASING COLD COVER.

SATURDAY...TRANSITION DAY WITH A STRONG FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW PWATS TO CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL MAKING FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL PRETTY DRY ACROSS
THE REGION SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY TO OCCUR
WITH THE POSSIBLE HEAVIER RAIN. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-60S.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.
PREFERRED THE CMC AND UKMET EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD OVER THE GFS AND ECMWF...BOTH OF WHICH HAVE A MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINTY AS SHOWN BY
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS SPREAD IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS FROM THE
MEAN AND THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST MODEL
VERIFICATIONS WHICH INDICATE A LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.

EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
NOSES INTO THE REGION. IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES ENOUGH W/
LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 35-40 RANGE IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR OF OUR CWA. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S
IN SOUTH JERSEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY...PRESENTING THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS TO START OUT,
BEFORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT SEVERAL OF THE TAF SITES LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS MOST LIKELY AT
ABE/RDG. THERE REMAINS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST, BUT
WE EXPECT MUCH OF THIS TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE AREA; WILL
AMEND IF THE STORMS GET WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS FROM A TAF SITE,
WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY BE RDG AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH
THE MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING VFR AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR THE TAF SITES. AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER REMAINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED,
MOSTLY IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR EARLY BECOMING VFR. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWER EARLY AT MIV/ACY, OTHERWISE DRY.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES LATE, OVERSPREADS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS. WINDS BACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN HEAVY RAIN, TRENDING VFR. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS OUR
AREA WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AND FROM EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE DAYTIME, SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL ALSO BE BUILDING IN THE INCREASING NORTHEAST
FLOW. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET BY AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY, AND FORECAST LEVELS SHOULD REACH 5 FEET FROM ABOUT GREAT
EGG INLET NORTHWARD DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. WE THEREFORE
DECIDED TO RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, FROM GREAT EGG INLET NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK,
BEGINNING AT 15Z WEDNESDAY.

FOR DELAWARE BAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON OUR
WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE WITH THE EASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 FEET. WINDS BEGIN TO BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY AND WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING, WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLINE/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...FRANCK/HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 010122 CCA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
922 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH LATER ON WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY BEFORE A MORE POTENT COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
BREAK BETWEEN COLD FRONTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING AND IS EVER SO SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THIS
AREA AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY A STRONG DIFFLUENT AREA ALOFT AND
VORTICITY IMPULSE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MEANWHILE, A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A CONTINUED EASTERLY TO
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE. SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY WEAKENING BEFORE IT GETS TO OUR AREA,
HOWEVER, SINCE IT IS APPROACHING THE AREA, HAVE DECIDED TO
INCREASE THE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND EXTEND THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY STILL DEVELOP ANYWHERE AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA.

GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG, AND WE
KEPT THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AND AMPLE
MOISTURE. FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A BLEND OF
MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND EXPECT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S, EXCEPT SOME
LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND IN MORE URBAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW
WILL BE SWINGING BY TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND BY LATE IN THE DAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH MORNING TO ABOUT MIDDAY, AND
WE SLOWLY TRAIL POPS OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY
CLOUDY THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SOME SLOW THINNING OCCURS LATE-DAY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY, AND WE EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SUCH FEATURE BEING THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW THAT SHOULD BE TO OUR IMMEDIATE
EAST. THEN WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL PHASING OF A STRONG NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST THAT CARVES OUT A VERY LARGE AND
DEEP CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY...RATHER DRY DAY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY ON
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PORTIONS. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SCRAPES BY BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOME MORE
PROMINENT ON THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LATE DAY SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW-70S; AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGING OVERHEAD A
BIT TOO FAST, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
STILL LINGERING BY AND THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING TROUGH UPSTREAM,
THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD SLIGHTLY BEFORE BREAKING. ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE STABLE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. WE SEE A INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY
INTENSITY BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT INCHES
CLOSER. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MUCH THE SAME, LOW-70S
WITH INCREASING COLD COVER.

SATURDAY...TRANSITION DAY WITH A STRONG FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW PWATS TO CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL MAKING FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL PRETTY DRY ACROSS
THE REGION SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY TO OCCUR
WITH THE POSSIBLE HEAVIER RAIN. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-60S.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.
PREFERRED THE CMC AND UKMET EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD OVER THE GFS AND ECMWF...BOTH OF WHICH HAVE A MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINTY AS SHOWN BY
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS SPREAD IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS FROM THE
MEAN AND THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST MODEL
VERIFICATIONS WHICH INDICATE A LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.

EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
NOSES INTO THE REGION. IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES ENOUGH W/
LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 35-40 RANGE IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR OF OUR CWA. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S
IN SOUTH JERSEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY...PRESENTING THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS TO START OUT,
BEFORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT SEVERAL OF THE TAF SITES LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS MOST LIKELY AT
ABE/RDG. THERE REMAINS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST, BUT
WE EXPECT MUCH OF THIS TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE AREA; WILL
AMEND IF THE STORMS GET WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS FROM A TAF SITE,
WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY BE RDG AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH
THE MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING VFR AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR THE TAF SITES. AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER REMAINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED,
MOSTLY IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR EARLY BECOMING VFR. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWER EARLY AT MIV/ACY, OTHERWISE DRY.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES LATE, OVERSPREADS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS. WINDS BACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN HEAVY RAIN, TRENDING VFR. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS OUR
AREA WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AND FROM EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE DAYTIME, SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL ALSO BE BUILDING IN THE INCREASING NORTHEAST
FLOW. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET BY AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY, AND FORECAST LEVELS SHOULD REACH 5 FEET FROM ABOUT GREAT
EGG INLET NORTHWARD DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. WE THEREFORE
DECIDED TO RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, FROM GREAT EGG INLET NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK,
BEGINNING AT 15Z WEDNESDAY.

FOR DELAWARE BAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON OUR
WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE WITH THE EASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 FEET. WINDS BEGIN TO BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY AND WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING, WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLINE/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...FRANCK/HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE








000
FXUS61 KPHI 010115
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
915 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH LATER ON WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY BEFORE A MORE POTENT COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
BREAK BETWEEN COLD FRONTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING AND IS EVER SO SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THIS
AREA AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY A STRONG DIFFLUENT AREA ALOFT AND
VORTICITY IMPULSE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MEANWHILE, A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A CONTINUED EASTERLY TO
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE. SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY WEAKENING BEFORE IT GETS TO OUR AREA,
HOWEVER, SINCE IT IS APPROACHING THE AREA, HAVE DECIDED TO
INCREASE THE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND EXTEND THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY STILL DEVELOP ANYWHERE AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA.

GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG, AND WE
KEPT THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AND AMPLE
MOISTURE. FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A BLEND OF
MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND EXPECT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S, EXCEPT SOME
LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND IN MORE URBAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW
WILL BE SWINGING BY TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND BY LATE IN THE DAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH MORNING TO ABOUT MIDDAY, AND
WE SLOWLY TRAIL POPS OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY
CLOUDY THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SOME SLOW THINNING OCCURS LATE-DAY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY, AND WE EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SUCH FEATURE BEING THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW THAT SHOULD BE TO OUR IMMEDIATE
EAST. THEN WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL PHASING OF A STRONG NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST THAT CARVES OUT A VERY LARGE AND
DEEP CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY...RATHER DRY DAY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY ON
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PORTIONS. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SCRAPES BY BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOME MORE
PROMINENT ON THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LATE DAY SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW-70S; AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGING OVERHEAD A
BIT TOO FAST, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
STILL LINGERING BY AND THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING TROUGH UPSTREAM,
THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD SLIGHTLY BEFORE BREAKING. ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE STABLE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. WE SEE A INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY
INTENSITY BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT INCHES
CLOSER. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MUCH THE SAME, LOW-70S
WITH INCREASING COLD COVER.

SATURDAY...TRANSITION DAY WITH A STRONG FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW PWATS TO CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL MAKING FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL PRETTY DRY ACROSS
THE REGION SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY TO OCCUR
WITH THE POSSIBLE HEAVIER RAIN. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-60S.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.
PREFERRED THE CMC AND UKMET EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD OVER THE GFS AND ECMWF...BOTH OF WHICH HAVE A MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINTY AS SHOWN BY
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS SPREAD IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS FROM THE
MEAN AND THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST MODEL
VERIFICATIONS WHICH INDICATE A LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.

EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
NOSES INTO THE REGION. IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES ENOUGH W/
LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 35-40 RANGE IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR OF OUR CWA. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S
IN SOUTH JERSEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY...PRESENTING THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS TO START OUT,
BEFORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT SEVERAL OF THE TAF SITES LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS MOST LIKELY AT
ABE/RDG. THERE REMAINS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST, BUT
WE EXPECT MUCH OF THIS TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE AREA; WILL
AMEND IF THE STORMS GET WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS FROM A TAF SITE,
WHICH SOULD MOST LIKELY BE RDG AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH
THE MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING VFR AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR THE TAF SITES. AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER REMAINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED,
MOSTLY IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR EARLY BECOMING VFR. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWER EARLY AT MIV/ACY, OTHERWISE DRY.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES LATE, OVERSPREADS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS. WINDS BACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN HEAVY RAIN, TRENDING VFR. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS OUR
AREA WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AND FROM EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE DAYTIME, SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL ALSO BE BUILDING IN THE INCREASING NORTHEAST
FLOW. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET BY AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY, AND FORECAST LEVELS SHOULD REACH 5 FEET FROM ABOUT GREAT
EGG INLET NORTHWARD DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. WE THEREFORE
DECIDED TO RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, FROM GREAT EGG INLET NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK,
BEGINNING AT 15Z WEDNESDAY.

FOR DELAWARE BAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON OUR
WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE WITH THE EASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 FEET. WINDS BEGIN TO BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY AND WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING, WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLINE/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...FRANCK/HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE





000
FXUS61 KPHI 010115
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
915 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH LATER ON WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY BEFORE A MORE POTENT COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
BREAK BETWEEN COLD FRONTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS OUT OF
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS
EVENING AND IS EVER SO SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THIS
AREA AND IS BEING ENHANCED BY A STRONG DIFFLUENT AREA ALOFT AND
VORTICITY IMPULSE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. MEANWHILE, A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP A CONTINUED EASTERLY TO
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE. SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY WEAKENING BEFORE IT GETS TO OUR AREA,
HOWEVER, SINCE IT IS APPROACHING THE AREA, HAVE DECIDED TO
INCREASE THE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND EXTEND THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY STILL DEVELOP ANYWHERE AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA.

GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG, AND WE
KEPT THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AND AMPLE
MOISTURE. FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A BLEND OF
MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND EXPECT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S, EXCEPT SOME
LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND IN MORE URBAN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW
WILL BE SWINGING BY TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND BY LATE IN THE DAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH MORNING TO ABOUT MIDDAY, AND
WE SLOWLY TRAIL POPS OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY
CLOUDY THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SOME SLOW THINNING OCCURS LATE-DAY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY, AND WE EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SUCH FEATURE BEING THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW THAT SHOULD BE TO OUR IMMEDIATE
EAST. THEN WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL PHASING OF A STRONG NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST THAT CARVES OUT A VERY LARGE AND
DEEP CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY...RATHER DRY DAY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY ON
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PORTIONS. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SCRAPES BY BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOME MORE
PROMINENT ON THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LATE DAY SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW-70S; AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGING OVERHEAD A
BIT TOO FAST, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
STILL LINGERING BY AND THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING TROUGH UPSTREAM,
THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD SLIGHTLY BEFORE BREAKING. ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE STABLE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. WE SEE A INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY
INTENSITY BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT INCHES
CLOSER. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MUCH THE SAME, LOW-70S
WITH INCREASING COLD COVER.

SATURDAY...TRANSITION DAY WITH A STRONG FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW PWATS TO CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL MAKING FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL PRETTY DRY ACROSS
THE REGION SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY TO OCCUR
WITH THE POSSIBLE HEAVIER RAIN. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-60S.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.
PREFERRED THE CMC AND UKMET EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FIELD OVER THE GFS AND ECMWF...BOTH OF WHICH HAVE A MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINTY AS SHOWN BY
BOTH THE GEFS AND ECENS SPREAD IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS FROM THE
MEAN AND THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST MODEL
VERIFICATIONS WHICH INDICATE A LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.

EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
NOSES INTO THE REGION. IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES ENOUGH W/
LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 35-40 RANGE IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR OF OUR CWA. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S
IN SOUTH JERSEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY...PRESENTING THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS TO START OUT,
BEFORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT SEVERAL OF THE TAF SITES LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS MOST LIKELY AT
ABE/RDG. THERE REMAINS SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST, BUT
WE EXPECT MUCH OF THIS TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE AREA; WILL
AMEND IF THE STORMS GET WITHIN A COUPLE OF HOURS FROM A TAF SITE,
WHICH SOULD MOST LIKELY BE RDG AND AFTER LOCAL MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH
THE MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING VFR AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR THE TAF SITES. AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER REMAINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED,
MOSTLY IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR EARLY BECOMING VFR. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWER EARLY AT MIV/ACY, OTHERWISE DRY.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES LATE, OVERSPREADS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS. WINDS BACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN HEAVY RAIN, TRENDING VFR. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS OUR
AREA WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AND FROM EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE DAYTIME, SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL ALSO BE BUILDING IN THE INCREASING NORTHEAST
FLOW. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET BY AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY, AND FORECAST LEVELS SHOULD REACH 5 FEET FROM ABOUT GREAT
EGG INLET NORTHWARD DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. WE THEREFORE
DECIDED TO RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, FROM GREAT EGG INLET NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK,
BEGINNING AT 15Z WEDNESDAY.

FOR DELAWARE BAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON OUR
WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE WITH THE EASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 FEET. WINDS BEGIN TO BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY AND WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING, WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLINE/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...FRANCK/HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 302015
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
415 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH LATER ON WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY BEFORE A MORE POTENT COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
BREAK BETWEEN COLD FRONTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE OF FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE, ALONG WITH SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, A CONTINUED EASTERLY TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE. WHILE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA, HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ARE FOCUSED MOSTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA, AS THE MORE ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL AID
IN ADDITIONAL LIFT AND IS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PASSING
OVERHEAD. WE LEFT A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR OUR FAR
WESTERN AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING, AS THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY, AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME THUNDER DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST
OF OUR CWA.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT THEN, WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS, HIGHEST FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES, WITH THE INCOMING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. IN ADDITION, GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG, AND WE KEPT THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE. FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES,
WE MOSTLY TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND EXPECT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 50S, EXCEPT SOME LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND IN MORE URBAN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW
WILL BE SWINGING BY TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND BY LATE IN THE DAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH MORNING TO ABOUT MIDDAY, AND
WE SLOWLY TRAIL POPS OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY
CLOUDY THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SOME SLOW THINNING OCCURS LATE-DAY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY, AND WE EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SUCH FEATURE BEING THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW THAT SHOULD BE TO OUR IMMEDIATE
EAST. THEN WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL PHASING OF A STRONG NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST THAT CARVES OUT A VERY LARGE AND
DEEP CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY...RATHER DRY DAY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY ON
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PORTIONS. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SCRAPES BY BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOME MORE
PROMINENT ON THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LATE DAY SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW-70S; AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGING OVERHEAD A
BIT TOO FAST, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
STILL LINGERING BY AND THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING TROUGH UPSTREAM,
THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD SLIGHTLY BEFORE BREAKING. ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE STABLE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. WE SEE A INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY
INTENSITY BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT INCHES
CLOSER. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MUCH THE SAME, LOW-70S
WITH INCREASING COLD COVER.

SATURDAY...TRANSITION DAY WITH A STRONG FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW PWATS TO CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL MAKING FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL PRETTY DRY ACROSS
THE REGION SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY TO OCCUR
WITH THE POSSIBLE HEAVIER RAIN. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-60S.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. PREFERRED THE
CMC AND UKMET EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF...BOTH OF WHICH HAVE A MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH AND PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINTY AS SHOWN BY BOTH THE
GEFS AND ECENS SPREAD IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS FROM THE MEAN
AND THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST MODEL VERIFICATIONS
WHICH INDICATE A LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.

EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
NOSES INTO THE REGION. IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES ENOUGH W/
LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 35-40 RANGE IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR OF OUR CWA. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S
IN SOUTH JERSEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY...PRESENTING THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LATE DAY AND THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED SCT TO BKN
CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 4000 TO 5000 FEET. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE, UNDER 10 KNOTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KRDG AND KABE.

LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT STAY MAINLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSING OVERHEAD, BUT CONFIDENCE AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. BEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WOULD BE IN THE
KRDG/KABE/KTTN VICINITY.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH
THE MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING VFR AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR THE TAF SITES. AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, MOSTLY IN THE
8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR EARLY BECOMING VFR. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWER EARLY AT MIV/ACY, OTHERWISE DRY.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES LATE, OVERSPREADS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS. WINDS BACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN HEAVY RAIN, TRENDING VFR. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS OUR
AREA WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AND FROM EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE DAYTIME, SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL ALSO BE BUILDING IN THE INCREASING NORTHEAST
FLOW. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET BY AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY, AND FORECAST LEVELS SHOULD REACH 5 FEET FROM ABOUT GREAT
EGG INLET NORTHWARD DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. WE THEREFORE
DECIDED TO RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, FROM GREAT EGG INLET NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK,
BEGINNING AT 15Z WEDNESDAY.

FOR DELAWARE BAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON OUR
WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE WITH THE EASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 FEET. WINDS BEGIN TO BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY AND WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING, WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...FRANCK/HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE








000
FXUS61 KPHI 302015
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
415 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO WORK IN FROM THE NORTH LATER ON WEDNESDAY.
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST BY FRIDAY BEFORE A MORE POTENT COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
BREAK BETWEEN COLD FRONTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE OF FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER ACROSS
OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE, ALONG WITH SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, A CONTINUED EASTERLY TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE. WHILE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA, HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ARE FOCUSED MOSTLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA, AS THE MORE ELEVATED TERRAIN WILL AID
IN ADDITIONAL LIFT AND IS CLOSER TO THE INCOMING UPPER LOW PASSING
OVERHEAD. WE LEFT A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR OUR FAR
WESTERN AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING, AS THERE IS SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY, AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME THUNDER DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST
OF OUR CWA.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT THEN, WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS, HIGHEST FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES, WITH THE INCOMING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. IN ADDITION, GUIDANCE WAS ALSO INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG, AND WE KEPT THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW AND AMPLE MOISTURE. FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES,
WE MOSTLY TOOK A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE AND EXPECT LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 50S, EXCEPT SOME LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST AND IN MORE URBAN
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW
WILL BE SWINGING BY TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND BY LATE IN THE DAY,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD
OUR REGION. THERE WILL STILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH MORNING TO ABOUT MIDDAY, AND
WE SLOWLY TRAIL POPS OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY
CLOUDY THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SOME SLOW THINNING OCCURS LATE-DAY.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH
CONTINUITY, AND WE EXPECT HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST SUCH FEATURE BEING THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW THAT SHOULD BE TO OUR IMMEDIATE
EAST. THEN WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL PHASING OF A STRONG NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST THAT CARVES OUT A VERY LARGE AND
DEEP CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MID-WEST BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT.

THURSDAY...RATHER DRY DAY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY ON
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PORTIONS. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL SCRAPES BY BUT
NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH. MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOME MORE
PROMINENT ON THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD GIVE WAY TO LATE DAY SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW-70S; AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE MAY BE BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGING OVERHEAD A
BIT TOO FAST, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
STILL LINGERING BY AND THE APPROACH OF A DEEPENING TROUGH UPSTREAM,
THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD SLIGHTLY BEFORE BREAKING. ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD
OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BY LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DO NOT SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE STABLE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE. WE SEE A INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND POSSIBLY
INTENSITY BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT INCHES
CLOSER. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MUCH THE SAME, LOW-70S
WITH INCREASING COLD COVER.

SATURDAY...TRANSITION DAY WITH A STRONG FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW PWATS TO CLIMB TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL MAKING FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE STILL PRETTY DRY ACROSS
THE REGION SO NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY TO OCCUR
WITH THE POSSIBLE HEAVIER RAIN. LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-60S.

SUNDAY - TUESDAY...CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO
DURING THE SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. PREFERRED THE
CMC AND UKMET EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE
GFS AND ECMWF...BOTH OF WHICH HAVE A MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH AND PLACEMENT OF THE CLOSED LOW FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINTY AS SHOWN BY BOTH THE
GEFS AND ECENS SPREAD IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELDS FROM THE MEAN
AND THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST MODEL VERIFICATIONS
WHICH INDICATE A LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION.

EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES
NOSES INTO THE REGION. IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES ENOUGH W/
LIGHT WINDS...COULD SEE LOW TEMPS IN THE 35-40 RANGE IN THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR OF OUR CWA. SUNDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...MID 50S IN THE POCONOS TO MID 60S
IN SOUTH JERSEY. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION EARLY ON TUESDAY...PRESENTING THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LATE DAY AND THIS EVENING...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED SCT TO BKN
CLOUDS WITH BASES AT 4000 TO 5000 FEET. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE, UNDER 10 KNOTS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF KRDG AND KABE.

LATE EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT STAY MAINLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MVFR TO POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PASSING OVERHEAD, BUT CONFIDENCE AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS WAS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. BEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER WOULD BE IN THE
KRDG/KABE/KTTN VICINITY.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH
THE MORNING, BEFORE BECOMING VFR AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON
FOR THE TAF SITES. AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MORNING. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED, MOSTLY IN THE
8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...MVFR EARLY BECOMING VFR. EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED.
POSSIBLE LINGERING SHOWER EARLY AT MIV/ACY, OTHERWISE DRY.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES LATE, OVERSPREADS THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. REDUCED VSBYS AND CIGS IN HEAVY SHOWERS. WINDS BACK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN HEAVY RAIN, TRENDING VFR. WINDS
CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS OUR
AREA WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, AND FROM EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE DAYTIME, SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL ALSO BE BUILDING IN THE INCREASING NORTHEAST
FLOW. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET BY AROUND DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY, AND FORECAST LEVELS SHOULD REACH 5 FEET FROM ABOUT GREAT
EGG INLET NORTHWARD DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. WE THEREFORE
DECIDED TO RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS, FROM GREAT EGG INLET NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK,
BEGINNING AT 15Z WEDNESDAY.

FOR DELAWARE BAY, WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY - FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON OUR
WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS WE CONTINUE WITH THE EASTERLY ONSHORE
FLOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN AROUND 5 FEET. WINDS BEGIN TO BACK
TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

SATURDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY AND WITH STRONGER COLD AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING, WE COULD SEE A RETURN TO SCA CONDITIONS.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR ANZ450>452.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...FRANCK/HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...HEAVENER/KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 301644
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1244 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE MIDDAY UPDATE, WE ADJUSTED SKY COVER ACROSS THE REGION TO
REFLECT THE CLEARING SEEN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP, THOUGH, AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE BEING MET, AND THIS WILL INCREASE SOME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WITH REGARDS TO ANY POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LATE-DAY SHOWER ACTIVITY, WE TRIMMED IT BACK SOME
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING, BASED ON HRRR GUIDANCE.
HIGHEST CHANCE POPS ARE STILL CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WERE TWEAKED USING
THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE, AND WE NUDGED MAX TEMPERATURES UP A DEGREE
OR TWO IN A FEW SPOTS.

REST OF TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
SCATTERED CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF
I95 WHICH PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO
BE ANY THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR
WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA WESTERN BERKS INTO THE POCONOS.

OVERALL: TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL AND THE ENTIRE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. WE HAVE RETAINED THE CHC POPS FROM EARLIER. THE
POPS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. TEMPERATURES WED
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYTIME PERIODS AND MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A 6 HR OR SO WINDOW OF QPF CENTERED AROUND FRI
EVENING. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD
WITH THE EXTRA CONFID IN MULTIPLE/CONSISTENT TRENDS. PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER LOOK LOW AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL HOLD ON THAT...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED AFTER
FROPA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY...BUT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS WILL FEATURE LOW 40S NORTH RANGING TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE
DELMARVA AND METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...MOSTLY SCT- BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 TO 5000 FT FOR
ALL SITES WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E, REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...MORNING FOG WITH LOCAL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MOSTLY
VFR. N WIND GUST 15 KT...BECOMING NE LATE.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THRU WED NIGHT: NE FLOW WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND SCA
CRITERIA EXPECTED ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD
TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA
HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL
HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET
LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF A CONTINUING SCA FLAG SEAS ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE.

FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SCT SHOWERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING LATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLINE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 301354
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT MID MORNING, VISIBILITY ISSUES WERE CONTINUING TO IMPROVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA, BUT THERE WERE STILL SOME LEFTOVER
PATCHES OF FOG, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LEHIGH VALLEY. WE EXPECT
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT THROUGH AND BEYOND 14Z. OTHERWISE, THE
REMAINING SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NJ CONTINUE TO
WANE AT MID MORNING AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE. TODAY`S
MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK, BUT WE DID ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS.

REST OF TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH
PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY
THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN
EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA WESTERN BERKS INTO THE POCONOS. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2F WARMER THAN OUR FCST...ESP E MD.

OVERALL: TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL AND THE ENTIRE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. WE HAVE RETAINED THE CHC POPS FROM EARLIER. THE
POPS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. TEMPERATURES WED
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYTIME PERIODS AND MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A 6 HR OR SO WINDOW OF QPF CENTERED AROUND FRI
EVENING. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD
WITH THE EXTRA CONFID IN MULTIPLE/CONSISTENT TRENDS. PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER LOOK LOW AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL HOLD ON THAT...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED AFTER
FROPA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY...BUT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS WILL FEATURE LOW 40S NORTH RANGING TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE
DELMARVA AND METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT WITH REGARDS TO CIGS/VSBYS FOR OUR WESTERN
TAF SITES KRDG/KABE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SCT- BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT FOR
ALL SITES WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E, REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...MORNING FOG WITH LOCAL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MOSTLY
VFR. N WIND GUST 15 KT...BECOMING NE LATE.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THRU WED NIGHT: NE FLOW WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND SCA
CRITERIA EXPECTED ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD
TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA
HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL
HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET
LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF A CONTINUING SCA FLAG SEAS ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE.

FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SCT SHOWERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING LATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLINE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 301354
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AT MID MORNING, VISIBILITY ISSUES WERE CONTINUING TO IMPROVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA, BUT THERE WERE STILL SOME LEFTOVER
PATCHES OF FOG, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LEHIGH VALLEY. WE EXPECT
CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT THROUGH AND BEYOND 14Z. OTHERWISE, THE
REMAINING SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NJ CONTINUE TO
WANE AT MID MORNING AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE. TODAY`S
MAXIMUM TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK, BUT WE DID ADJUST HOURLY TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND
OBSERVATIONS.

REST OF TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH
PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY
THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN
EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA WESTERN BERKS INTO THE POCONOS. THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2F WARMER THAN OUR FCST...ESP E MD.

OVERALL: TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL AND THE ENTIRE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. WE HAVE RETAINED THE CHC POPS FROM EARLIER. THE
POPS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. TEMPERATURES WED
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYTIME PERIODS AND MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A 6 HR OR SO WINDOW OF QPF CENTERED AROUND FRI
EVENING. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD
WITH THE EXTRA CONFID IN MULTIPLE/CONSISTENT TRENDS. PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER LOOK LOW AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL HOLD ON THAT...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED AFTER
FROPA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY...BUT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS WILL FEATURE LOW 40S NORTH RANGING TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE
DELMARVA AND METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT WITH REGARDS TO CIGS/VSBYS FOR OUR WESTERN
TAF SITES KRDG/KABE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING.

OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF TODAY...SCT- BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT FOR
ALL SITES WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E, REMAINING UNDER 10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...MORNING FOG WITH LOCAL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MOSTLY
VFR. N WIND GUST 15 KT...BECOMING NE LATE.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THRU WED NIGHT: NE FLOW WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND SCA
CRITERIA EXPECTED ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD
TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA
HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL
HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET
LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF A CONTINUING SCA FLAG SEAS ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE.

FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SCT SHOWERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING LATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLINE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300959
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
559 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...LIGHT SHOWERS NOW APPEAR TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
NE MD...DE AND FAR SW NJ AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PRODUCES MID LEVEL SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. THE 545 AM UPDATE
ATTEMPTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SHORT PERIOD LEFTOVERS.

OTHERWISE...THICK FOG ALONG MD`S E SHORE AND PORTIONS OF E PA W AND NW
OF PHL AS WELL AS FAR NW NJ WILL BEGIN THINNING AROUND 730 OR 8 AM.
AN SPS HIGHLIGHTS THAT DIFFICULTY.

TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING
DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO
DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA WESTERN BERKS
INTO THE POCONOS. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2F WARMER
THAN OUR FCST...ESP E MD.

OVERALL: TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL AND THE ENTIRE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. WE HAVE RETAINED THE CHC POPS FROM EARLIER. THE
POPS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. TEMPERATURES WED
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYTIME PERIODS AND MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A 6 HR OR SO WINDOW OF QPF CENTERED AROUND FRI
EVENING. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD
WITH THE EXTRA CONFID IN MULTIPLE/CONSISTENT TRENDS. PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER LOOK LOW AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL HOLD ON THAT...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED AFTER
FROPA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY...BUT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS WILL FEATURE LOW 40S NORTH RANGING TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE
DELMARVA AND METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL DECK OF CIGS
AOA 10000 FT VCNTY N DE AND NE MD AT 10Z SHOULD FINALLY WEAKEN AND
DRY OUT AROUND 12-13Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL CORE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE DRIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE COAST. LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH HIGHER THAN
MODELED DEWPOINTS SHOULD FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF 3 MI FOG
PATCHES AND EVEN BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG MAINLY VCNTY
KRDG/KABE.


AFTER 12Z...AFTER ANY LEFTOVER IFR ST/FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE
LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...MORNING FOG WITH LOCAL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MOSTLY
VFR. N WIND GUST 15 KT...BECOMING NE LATE.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THRU WED NIGHT: NE FLOW WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND SCA
CRITERIA EXPECTED ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD
TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA
HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL
HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET
LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF A CONTINUING SCA FLAG SEAS ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE.

FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SCT SHOWERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING LATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 558
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 558
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 558







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300959
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
559 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 8 AM...LIGHT SHOWERS NOW APPEAR TO BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
NE MD...DE AND FAR SW NJ AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
PRODUCES MID LEVEL SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS. THE 545 AM UPDATE
ATTEMPTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SHORT PERIOD LEFTOVERS.

OTHERWISE...THICK FOG ALONG MD`S E SHORE AND PORTIONS OF E PA W AND NW
OF PHL AS WELL AS FAR NW NJ WILL BEGIN THINNING AROUND 730 OR 8 AM.
AN SPS HIGHLIGHTS THAT DIFFICULTY.

TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING
DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO
DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA WESTERN BERKS
INTO THE POCONOS. THE ECMWF SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2F WARMER
THAN OUR FCST...ESP E MD.

OVERALL: TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL AND THE ENTIRE MONTH OF
SEPTEMBER SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 1.5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. WE HAVE RETAINED THE CHC POPS FROM EARLIER. THE
POPS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. TEMPERATURES WED
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYTIME PERIODS AND MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A 6 HR OR SO WINDOW OF QPF CENTERED AROUND FRI
EVENING. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD
WITH THE EXTRA CONFID IN MULTIPLE/CONSISTENT TRENDS. PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER LOOK LOW AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL HOLD ON THAT...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED AFTER
FROPA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY...BUT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS WILL FEATURE LOW 40S NORTH RANGING TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE
DELMARVA AND METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL DECK OF CIGS
AOA 10000 FT VCNTY N DE AND NE MD AT 10Z SHOULD FINALLY WEAKEN AND
DRY OUT AROUND 12-13Z AS THE UPPER LEVEL CORE OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT
WAVE DRIFTS EASTWARD ONTO THE COAST. LIGHT SOUTH WIND WITH HIGHER THAN
MODELED DEWPOINTS SHOULD FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF 3 MI FOG
PATCHES AND EVEN BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG MAINLY VCNTY
KRDG/KABE.


AFTER 12Z...AFTER ANY LEFTOVER IFR ST/FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE
LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...MORNING FOG WITH LOCAL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MOSTLY
VFR. N WIND GUST 15 KT...BECOMING NE LATE.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THRU WED NIGHT: NE FLOW WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND SCA
CRITERIA EXPECTED ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD
TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA
HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL
HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET
LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF A CONTINUING SCA FLAG SEAS ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE.

FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SCT SHOWERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING LATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 558
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 558
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 558








000
FXUS61 KPHI 300742
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 7 AM...LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AND END OVER THE DELMARVA
AND COASTAL NJ BY 7 AM. FOG WILL THICKEN OVER PORTIONS E PA WITH FOG
POSSIBLE ALSO IN AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT BUT
APPARENTLY THE THICKEST FOG WILL BE FROM NW NJ THROUGH E PA SOUTHWESTWARD.

TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING
DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO
DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA. THE
ECMWF SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2 F WARMER THAN OUR FCST...ESP E
MD.

TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. WE HAVE RETAINED THE CHC POPS FROM EARLIER. THE
POPS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. TEMPERATURES WED
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYTIME PERIODS AND MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A 6 HR OR SO WINDOW OF QPF CENTERED AROUND FRI
EVENING. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD
WITH THE EXTRA CONFID IN MULTIPLE/CONSISTENT TRENDS. PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER LOOK LOW AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL HOLD ON THAT...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED AFTER
FROPA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY...BUT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS WILL FEATURE LOW 40S NORTH RANGING TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE
DELMARVA AND METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL DECK OF CIGS
AOA 6000 FT WITH A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED E PA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND WITH HIGHER THAN MODELED DEWPOINTS SHOULD FACILITATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1-3 MI FOG PATCHES AND POTENTIAL BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG BOTH VCNTY KRDG/KABE BUT ALSO ELSEWHERE WHERE IT
RAINED THIS PAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTER 12Z...AFTER ANY LEFTOVER IFR ST/FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...MORNING FOG WITH LOCAL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MOSTLY
VFR. N WIND GUST 15 KT...BECOMING NE LATE.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THRU WED NIGHT: NE FLOW WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND SCA
CRITERIA EXPECTED ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD
TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA
HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL
HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET
LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF A CONTINUING SCA FLAG SEAS ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE.

FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SCT SHOWERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING LATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 300742
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 7 AM...LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AND END OVER THE DELMARVA
AND COASTAL NJ BY 7 AM. FOG WILL THICKEN OVER PORTIONS E PA WITH FOG
POSSIBLE ALSO IN AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT BUT
APPARENTLY THE THICKEST FOG WILL BE FROM NW NJ THROUGH E PA SOUTHWESTWARD.

TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING
DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO
DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA. THE
ECMWF SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2 F WARMER THAN OUR FCST...ESP E
MD.

TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE UPPER LOW AND WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE EXITING THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME SCT SHOWERS...MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST
PART OF THE DAY. WE HAVE RETAINED THE CHC POPS FROM EARLIER. THE
POPS DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM W TO E. TEMPERATURES WED
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...MOSTLY LOW/MID 70S.

WED NIGHT THRU FRI MORNING...MOSTLY DRY WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYTIME PERIODS AND MOSTLY CLR OVERNIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
AGAIN...NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

FRI AFTERNOON THRU SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER
CONSISTENT WITH A 6 HR OR SO WINDOW OF QPF CENTERED AROUND FRI
EVENING. WE HAVE UPPER THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE EVENING PERIOD
WITH THE EXTRA CONFID IN MULTIPLE/CONSISTENT TRENDS. PROBABILITIES
FOR THUNDER LOOK LOW AT THIS POINT SO WE WILL HOLD ON THAT...SOME
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FROPA HOWEVER. TEMPS WILL DROP BACK
TO BELOW NORMAL SAT WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED AFTER
FROPA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...ANOTHER DRY PERIOD EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SUNDAY...BUT BACK TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY. LOWS BOTH SAT AND SUN
NIGHTS WILL FEATURE LOW 40S NORTH RANGING TO THE LOW 50S OVER THE
DELMARVA AND METRO PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL DECK OF CIGS
AOA 6000 FT WITH A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED E PA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND WITH HIGHER THAN MODELED DEWPOINTS SHOULD FACILITATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1-3 MI FOG PATCHES AND POTENTIAL BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG BOTH VCNTY KRDG/KABE BUT ALSO ELSEWHERE WHERE IT
RAINED THIS PAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTER 12Z...AFTER ANY LEFTOVER IFR ST/FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SCT SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. E/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...MORNING FOG WITH LOCAL LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MOSTLY
VFR. N WIND GUST 15 KT...BECOMING NE LATE.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...A FEW MORNING SHOWERS EAST...THEN VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THRU WED NIGHT: NE FLOW WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS AND SCA
CRITERIA EXPECTED ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD
TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA
HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL
HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET
LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF A CONTINUING SCA FLAG SEAS ON THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.
CONDITIONS MAY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA LATE.

FRIDAY...SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AND BUILDING SEAS. SCA CONDITIONS
A GOOD BET BY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY WITH SCT SHOWERS...THEN WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISHING LATE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300706
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
306 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 7 AM...LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AND END OVER THE DELMARVA
AND COASTAL NJ BY 7 AM. FOG WILL THICKEN OVER PORTIONS E PA WITH FOG
POSSIBLE ALSO IN AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT BUT
APPARENTLY THE THICKEST FOG WILL BE FROM NW NJ THROUGH E PA SOUTHWESTWARD.

TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING
DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO
DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA. THE
ECMWF SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2 F WARMER THAN OUR FCST...ESP E
MD.

TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL DECK OF CIGS
AOA 6000 FT WITH A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED E PA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND WITH HIGHER THAN MODELED DEWPOINTS SHOULD FACILITATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1-3 MI FOG PATCHES AND POTENTIAL BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG BOTH VCNTY KRDG/KABE BUT ALSO ELSEWHERE WHERE IT
RAINED THIS PAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTER 12Z...AFTER ANY LEFTOVER IFR ST/FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN
POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT
WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL
JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI 305
NEAR TERM...DRAG 305
SHORT TERM...DRAG 305
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI 305
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER 305








000
FXUS61 KPHI 300706
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
306 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND WEAK FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FOR LATER
MONDAY AND INTO NEXT TUESDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH 7 AM...LIGHT SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AND END OVER THE DELMARVA
AND COASTAL NJ BY 7 AM. FOG WILL THICKEN OVER PORTIONS E PA WITH FOG
POSSIBLE ALSO IN AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT BUT
APPARENTLY THE THICKEST FOG WILL BE FROM NW NJ THROUGH E PA SOUTHWESTWARD.

TODAY...BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IT SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME SUNSHINE VSBY AT TIMES THROUGH THE CLOUDS. AFTERNOON HEATING
DEVELOPS SMALL SHOWERS NW OF I95 WHICH PROBABLY HAVE A TENDENCY TO
DRIFT WEST. IF THERE IS TO BE ANY THUNDER THIS FAR EAST...IT
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA. THE
ECMWF SUGGESTS TEMPS MAY RUN 1-2 F WARMER THAN OUR FCST...ESP E
MD.

TEMPS ABOUT 7F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH 500MB
TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH SUBTLE
LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE
BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPS ABOUT 10F WARMER THAN NORMAL.

FCST WAS BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/30 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MID LEVEL DECK OF CIGS
AOA 6000 FT WITH A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED E PA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND WITH HIGHER THAN MODELED DEWPOINTS SHOULD FACILITATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1-3 MI FOG PATCHES AND POTENTIAL BRIEF LIFR
CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG BOTH VCNTY KRDG/KABE BUT ALSO ELSEWHERE WHERE IT
RAINED THIS PAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTER 12Z...AFTER ANY LEFTOVER IFR ST/FOG BURNS OFF BY 14Z...OTHERWISE
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT WITH A POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E.

TONIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR ST/FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD FROM LONG ISLAND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ATTM.

TODAY...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AOB 3 FT TODAY WITH THE S-SW WIND
TURNING TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASING WITH GUSTS TO 22 KT LATE AND SEAS
BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CAPPED SEAS AT 4 FT
THROUGH 8AM WEDNESDAY AS I BELIEVE THE GFS WW3 GUIDANCE IS TOO
SOON TOO HIGH.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN
POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT
WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL
JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI 305
NEAR TERM...DRAG 305
SHORT TERM...DRAG 305
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI 305
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER 305







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300342
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1142 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SLIDES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. THAT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT SUNDAY. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1140 PM UPDATE...RAISED POPS MD/PA BORDER AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN DE
AND EASTERN NJ THROUGH 07Z. TOO MUCH RAIN ON RADAR. THEN THE
CONCERN...SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN MODELED...HOW
EXTENSIVE THE FOG AT SUNRISE TUESDAY. COULD SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG
DEVELOP PORTIONS OF E PA WHERE IT CLEARS BY 09Z AND THEN SEPARATELY
OVER COASTAL SECTIONS.

TUESDAY...A QUIET MORNING EXPECTED...THEN SCT SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE MID-LATE AFTN E PA PER INCREASING INSTABILITY
ALOFT AS 500MB TEMPS COOL 2C LATE IN THE DAY STEEPENING MID LVL
LAPSE RATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EWD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
500MB TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH
SUBTLE LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK BUT DEEP ELY MOIST WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND
THE BACKDOOR COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING
NE FLOW NE OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MID LVL DECK OF CIGS
AOA 6000 FT WITH A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED E PA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND WITH HIGHER THAN MODELED DEWPOINTS SHOULD FACILITATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1-3 MI FOG PATCHES AND POTENTIAL BRIEF LIFR
CONDS IN ST/FOG NEAR 11Z BOTH VCNTY KRDG/KABE BUT ALSO ELSEWHERE
WHERE IT RAINED THIS PAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...AFTER ANY LEFTOVER IFR ST/FOG BURNS OFF BY
14Z....SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT BECOME BKN MID-LATE AFTN WITH A
POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE. LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR
ST/FOG SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHC OF SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF
KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS THIS EVENING ARE AROUND TWO FEET ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. TOMORROW WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE
SEAS BUILD AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF NORTHEAST. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR
FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...NE WIND 10-20 KT WITH ATLC SEAS NEAR 4 FT. NO HEADLINE
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN
POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT
WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL
JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1141
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300305
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1105 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SLIDES SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. THAT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT SUNDAY. A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1040 PM UPDATE...RAISED POPS ON PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA AND
COASTAL NJ THROUGH ABOUT 07Z AND LOWERED POPS NE PA AND NW NJ.
TOO MUCH RAIN ON RADAR. THEN THE CONCERN...SINCE DEWPOINTS ARE
MUCH HIGHER THAN MODELED...HOW EXTENSIVE THE FOG AT SUNRISE
TUESDAY. COULD SEE PATCH DENSE DEVELOP PORTIONS OF E PA WHERE IT
CLEARS BY 09Z AND THEN SEPARATELY OVER COASTAL SECTIONS.

TUESDAY...A QUIET MORNING EXPECTED...THEN SCT SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP DURING THE MID-LATE AFTN E PA PER INCREASING INSTABILITY
ALOFT AS 500MB TEMPS COOL 2C LATE IN THE DAY STEEPENING MID LVL
LAPSE RATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY NIGHT...COOL POOL ALOFT SLIDES EWD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
500MB TEMPS NEAR -15-16C. BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING WITH
SUBTLE LIFT FROM BOTH WEAK ELY WINDS NORTH OF I78 AND THE BACKDOOR
COOL FRONT CONVERGENCE ZONE DRIVEN BY THE STRENGTHENING NE FLOW NE
OF THE BACKDOOR CF.

ADDITIONALLY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE COOLER BL AIR NE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM MID LVL DECK OF CIGS
AOA 6000 FT WITH A CLEARING TREND EXPECTED E PA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT
SOUTH WIND WITH HIGHER THAN MODELED DEWPOINTS SHOULD FACILITATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF 1-3 MI FOG PATCHES AND POTENTIAL BRIEF LIFR
CONDS BOTH VCNTY KRDG/KABE BUT ALSO ELSEWHERE WHERE IT RAINED
THIS PAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...AFTER ANY LEFTOVER IFR ST/FOG BURNS OFF BY
14Z....SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT BECOME BKN MID-LATE AFTN WITH A
POSSIBLE SHOWER VCNTY KRDG/KABE. LIGHT SOUTH WIND TURNING E.

TUESDAY NIGHT...WIND BECOMING NE AT 5-15 KT AND A DECK OF IFR
ST/FOG SHOULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
MOVING SW FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CHC OF SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF
KPHL.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS THIS EVENING ARE AROUND TWO FEET ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. TOMORROW WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE
SEAS BUILD AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF NORTHEAST. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR
FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THIS PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT...NE WIND 10-20 KT WITH ATLC SEAS NEAR 4 FT. NO HEADLINE
ANTICIPATED ATTM.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST AND THEN
POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 22 KT
WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS CONDITIONS WILL
JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI 1104
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1104
SHORT TERM...DRAG/GAINES/HEAVENER 1104
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER/JOHNSON 1104
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER 1104







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300130
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO
SEA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN NJ. ANOTHER BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN DELMARVA. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO LAST TOO MUCH PAST 06Z AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
REGION AT THAT TIME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO LOW FOR DEW
POINTS. ADJUSTED THE DEW POINTS UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ALSO, SINCE THE CLEARING LINE OF HIGH CLOUDS IS JUST WEST OF THE
CWA, EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FG ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER, STILL UNCERTAIN HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL GO SINCE WINDS REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH AND MOSTLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT THIS HOUR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SOUNDINGS
HAVE SHOWN ALL DAY A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-
LEVELS. EVEN THOUGH THE RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIPITATION MOST OF IT
WILL BE VIRGA. HOWEVER THE RAP AND HRRR BRING IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (UNDER .05 INCHES) THIS EVENING ACROSS DELMARVA AND
SOUTH NJ. DID INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
FOR THESE AREAS. KEPT MANY WEATHER ELEMENTS INCLUDING LOWS NEAR
THE MET/MAV. THE MAV HAS BEEN TO DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALL
DAY AND DID NOT INCORPORATE THIS SET FOR DEWPOINTS. WE MAY SEE
SOME CLEARING AS WELL BY SUNRISE PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR A FEW HOUR
WINDOW FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL SUPPORT MAY ALLOW FOR
THE GENERATION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON FOCUSED NW
OF PHL. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MAV/MET
GUIDANCE SETS. ECMWF 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD TO SURFACE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80`S FOR PHL. HOWEVER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS KEPT HIGHS IN THE 70`S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A BROAD AREA OF BKN100 CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE CLEARING LINE IS NOT TOO FAR WEST OF KRDG
AND KABE. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
06Z. THERE REMAINS A SMALL THREAT OF BR DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE KRDG
AND KMIV. HOWEVER, WITH WINDS STILL WITH A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT, AND CLOUDS HANGING ON THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z, DO NOT
EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO GET BELOW MVFR AT THIS TIME.

ANY BR SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z TUESDAY LEAVING FEW TO SCT050, SO ANOTHER
VFR DAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT RDG AND ABE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS THIS EVENING ARE AROUND TWO FEET ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. TOMORROW WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE
SEAS BUILD AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF NORTHEAST. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR
FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THIS PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS
CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300130
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO
SEA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...THE BROAD AREA OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST OVER EASTERN NJ. ANOTHER BAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN DELMARVA. ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HOWEVER, DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO LAST TOO MUCH PAST 06Z AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE
REGION AT THAT TIME. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO LOW FOR DEW
POINTS. ADJUSTED THE DEW POINTS UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ALSO, SINCE THE CLEARING LINE OF HIGH CLOUDS IS JUST WEST OF THE
CWA, EXPANDED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FG ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY. HOWEVER, STILL UNCERTAIN HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL GO SINCE WINDS REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH AND MOSTLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT THIS HOUR.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A INVERTED
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SOUNDINGS
HAVE SHOWN ALL DAY A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-
LEVELS. EVEN THOUGH THE RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIPITATION MOST OF IT
WILL BE VIRGA. HOWEVER THE RAP AND HRRR BRING IN SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (UNDER .05 INCHES) THIS EVENING ACROSS DELMARVA AND
SOUTH NJ. DID INCLUDE THE THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
FOR THESE AREAS. KEPT MANY WEATHER ELEMENTS INCLUDING LOWS NEAR
THE MET/MAV. THE MAV HAS BEEN TO DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALL
DAY AND DID NOT INCORPORATE THIS SET FOR DEWPOINTS. WE MAY SEE
SOME CLEARING AS WELL BY SUNRISE PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR A FEW HOUR
WINDOW FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL SUPPORT MAY ALLOW FOR
THE GENERATION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON FOCUSED NW
OF PHL. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MAV/MET
GUIDANCE SETS. ECMWF 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD TO SURFACE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80`S FOR PHL. HOWEVER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS KEPT HIGHS IN THE 70`S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...A BROAD AREA OF BKN100 CONTINUES TO STREAM OVER
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE CLEARING LINE IS NOT TOO FAR WEST OF KRDG
AND KABE. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
06Z. THERE REMAINS A SMALL THREAT OF BR DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST THREAT APPEARS TO BE KRDG
AND KMIV. HOWEVER, WITH WINDS STILL WITH A SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT, AND CLOUDS HANGING ON THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z, DO NOT
EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO GET BELOW MVFR AT THIS TIME.

ANY BR SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z TUESDAY LEAVING FEW TO SCT050, SO ANOTHER
VFR DAY TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10KT. THE
NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT RDG AND ABE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS THIS EVENING ARE AROUND TWO FEET ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. TOMORROW WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE
SEAS BUILD AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF NORTHEAST. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR
FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THIS PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS
CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER








000
FXUS61 KPHI 291945
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE
ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION. THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO
SEA WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS NEXT SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH. SOUNDINGS HAVE SHOWN ALL DAY A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. EVEN THOUGH THE
RADAR SHOWS SOME PRECIPITATION MOST OF IT WILL BE VIRGA. HOWEVER
THE RAP AND HRRR BRING IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION (UNDER .05
INCHES) THIS EVENING ACROSS DELMARVA AND SOUTH NJ. DID INCLUDE THE
THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER FOR THESE AREAS. KEPT MANY
WEATHER ELEMENTS INCLUDING LOWS NEAR THE MET/MAV. THE MAV HAS BEEN
TO DRY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALL DAY AND DID NOT INCORPORATE THIS SET
FOR DEWPOINTS. WE MAY SEE SOME CLEARING AS WELL BY SUNRISE PERHAPS
ALLOWING FOR A FEW HOUR WINDOW FOR THE FORMATION OF PATCHY FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE INVERTED TROUGH WILL BE WELL EAST OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE QUICKLY ON ITS HEALS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL SUPPORT MAY ALLOW FOR
THE GENERATION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON FOCUSED NW
OF PHL. FOR TEMPERATURES WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE MAV/MET
GUIDANCE SETS. ECMWF 925 MB TEMPERATURES WOULD YIELD TO SURFACE
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80`S FOR PHL. HOWEVER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIR
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS KEPT HIGHS IN THE 70`S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST FROM 12 HOURS
AGO. SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD BUT AMOUNTS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, THEN TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING WITH NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN. HIGHEST POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE ON MONDAY, ONCE AGAIN BRINGING A CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

USE WPC GUIDANCE PREDOMINATELY FOR DAYS 4 THOUGH 7. FOR TUE NIGHT
INTO THU, USED A 50/50 BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADJUSTED GFS
MAV MOS


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUDS AOA 15,000 FEET CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE TO SOUTH. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION TO A ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE, WITH ACY/MIV HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. DRY
TAFS. OVERNIGHT, SOME SCATTERED LOWER VFR CLOUDS AROUND 4,000 FEET
MAY DEVELOP. CURRENTLY IS IT MORE LIKELY THAT THE HIGHER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF LOWER CLOUDS OR FOG, EXCEPT AT
RDG AND MIV WHICH TYPICALLY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE FOG. ANY FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z TUESDAY LEAVING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS AOA 4,000
FEET, SO ANOTHER VFR DAY TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT
RDG AND ABE AFTER THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD WHICH CURRENTLY RUNS TILL
18Z TUESDAY.


OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS THIS EVENING ARE AROUND TWO FEET ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL. TOMORROW WE WILL GRADUALLY SEE
SEAS BUILD AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF NORTHEAST. SEAS MAY REACH FOUR
FEET TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS AS WELL.
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR THIS PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY. HAVE HELD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY FORMAL HEADLINES ON THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS
CONDITIONS WILL JUST MEET LOWER END SCA CRITERIA AND CONFIDENCE IS
NOT YET HIGH.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

SATURDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SZATKOWSKI
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER
LONG TERM...SZATKOWSKI
AVIATION...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER
MARINE...GAINES/SZATKOWSKI/HEAVENER








000
FXUS61 KPHI 291732
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
132 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. EVENTHOUGH THE RADAR MAY APPEAR SOMEWHAT
JUICY THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO
MOISTEN UP TO ALLOW FOR ANY CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST ATTM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
CLOSING DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70`S
TO 80 IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
GIVEN RECENT METAR OBS FOR TODAY AND LAV GUIDANCE WAS ALSO
INCORPORATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUDS AOA 15,000 FEET CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE TO SOUTH. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION TO A
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE, WITH ACY/MIV HAVING THE BEST CHANCE.
DRY TAFS. OVERNIGHT SOME SCATTERED LOWER VFR CLOUDS AROUND 4,000
FEET MAY DEVELOP. CURRENTLY IS IT MORE LIKELY THAT THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF LOWER CLOUDS OR FOG,
EXCEPT AT RDG AND MIV WHICH TYPICALLY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
FOG. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z LEAVING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
AOA 4,000 FEET, SO ANOTHER VFR DAY TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, NO
PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z WED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 291732
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
132 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. EVENTHOUGH THE RADAR MAY APPEAR SOMEWHAT
JUICY THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO
MOISTEN UP TO ALLOW FOR ANY CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST ATTM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
CLOSING DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70`S
TO 80 IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
GIVEN RECENT METAR OBS FOR TODAY AND LAV GUIDANCE WAS ALSO
INCORPORATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUDS AOA 15,000 FEET CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE TO SOUTH. THIS LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE KEEPING ANY PRECIPITATION TO A
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE, WITH ACY/MIV HAVING THE BEST CHANCE.
DRY TAFS. OVERNIGHT SOME SCATTERED LOWER VFR CLOUDS AROUND 4,000
FEET MAY DEVELOP. CURRENTLY IS IT MORE LIKELY THAT THE HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF LOWER CLOUDS OR FOG,
EXCEPT AT RDG AND MIV WHICH TYPICALLY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
FOG. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z LEAVING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS
AOA 4,000 FEET, SO ANOTHER VFR DAY TUESDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, NO
PRECIPITATION THROUGH 00Z WED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291609
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1209 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. EVENTHOUGH THE RADAR MAY APPEAR SOMEWHAT
JUICY THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO
MOISTEN UP TO ALLOW FOR ANY CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST ATTM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
CLOSING DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70`S
TO 80 IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
GIVEN RECENT METAR OBS FOR TODAY AND LAV GUIDANCE WAS ALSO
INCORPORATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXISED SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MORNING FOG WITH LOCALLY MVFR OR PERHAPS SOME HIGH IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER GOOD FLYING WEATHER DAY ON
TAP. THERE WILL BE MOSTLY BKN-OVC CI/CS CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
GOOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE AN WEAK
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT...WITH MORE LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN PATCHY FOG
NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN IN AFTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
KABE AND KRDG. SLIGHT CHC OF A LATE DAY TSTM THERE. LIGHT WIND
TRENDING EASTERLY MOST TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX
GUST 10-15KT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291609
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1209 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL MOVE ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OUT TO SEA WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN CANADA RIDGING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES THURSDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEAK LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ALSO...CREATING A BKN-OVC
SKY OF HIGH CI/CS CLOUDS. EVENTHOUGH THE RADAR MAY APPEAR SOMEWHAT
JUICY THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE MOST OF THE DAY TO
MOISTEN UP TO ALLOW FOR ANY CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS,
CONTINUED DRY FORECAST ATTM. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN SUNDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
CLOSING DAYS OF SEPTEMBER. READINGS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70`S
TO 80 IN MOST AREAS AND A FEW LOW 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
GIVEN RECENT METAR OBS FOR TODAY AND LAV GUIDANCE WAS ALSO
INCORPORATED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY WEST OR SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SFC LOW
MOVES INTO NY STATE. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO PCPN IS EXPECTED WITH THE LOWER PARTS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
60S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500 MB: A RATHER STRONG CLOSED LOW SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY DEPART EAST OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA FRIDAY WILL SEND ONE
OF ITS SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY THEN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW PROBABLY FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES: SEPTEMBER WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 1.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 8 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
BY SUNDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE 00Z/29 GFS MOS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY...THEN THEREAFTER (THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD) THE
0522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED
AGAINST THE 00Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH
ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 21Z/28
SREF 3HRLY POPS FOR .01 THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
00Z/29 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05.

THE DAILIES...

MODEL AMPLITUDE AND TRACK STILL DIFFER ON THE MIDWEEK CLOSED LOW
SHORT WAVE BUT OVERALL...ENOUGH AGREEMENT EXISTS TO EXPRESS AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS LONG TERM PERIOD.

WE`RE COUNTING ON PROGRESSIVE AND NOT COUNTING ON AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF INVERTED TROF HANG BACK ALA THE 00Z/29 NAM.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING AROUND TO FAVORING ENOUGH
STRENGTH/POTENCY IN THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING SEWD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO MAKE ITS OWN SFC LOW PRESSURE AND SEND IT FROM ROUGHLY
TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH PA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE MIDWEEK.

THE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BACKDOOR COOL FRONT...DEEP
AND LIGHT E-SE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (I78 REGION
NORTHWARD)...PWAT OF 1.25 INCHES...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH SWI
SUBZERO AND THE STRONG SHORT WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD PERMIT SLOW
MOVING SHOWERY RAINS TO DEVELOP IN E PA AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NJ TUESDAY AND TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY. WHILE SOME AREAS WILL MISS THE
RAIN...OTHERS COULD EASILY SEE AN INCH.

ITS BOTHERSOME THAT THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN AT TIMES ADVERTISING
2-5 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NNJ TO S OF LI THE PAST 48 HOURS OF CYCLES. THE
IMPLIED MESSAGE...SLOW MOVERS CAN BE DECENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THUNDER
IS IN THE GRIDS NOW FROM NW NJ INTO E PA LATE TUE AFTN/EVENING.

THE PRIMARY FAVORED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NEEDED RAINFALL N OF
I78 IS 21Z TUE-18Z WED.

S OF I78...ESPECIALLY THE DELMARVA AND FAR SE PA...VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CHANCE OF A SHOWER BUT NOT
NEARLY AS THREATENING AS FURTHER NORTH.

PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.


THURSDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT IN DEVELOPING NNW FLOW ENTIRE
REGION AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS TO THE E OF NEW ENGLAND AND
HEIGHTS WARM WITH THE RIDGE ARRIVING BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED
LOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY THU

FRIDAY-EARLY SATURDAY...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY THEN DRY
PROBABLY MOST OF FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF SHOWERS PROBABLE AT NIGHT
OR EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXISED SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

LATER SATURDAY-SUNDAY...DRIES OUT WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND.
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE THE NEXT BRIEF
WARMING CYCLE!

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MORNING FOG WITH LOCALLY MVFR OR PERHAPS SOME HIGH IFR VSBYS
POSSIBLE...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...ANOTHER GOOD FLYING WEATHER DAY ON
TAP. THERE WILL BE MOSTLY BKN-OVC CI/CS CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD
MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
GOOD. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE AN WEAK
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. VFR EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT...WITH MORE LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN PATCHY FOG
NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN IN AFTN SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
KABE AND KRDG. SLIGHT CHC OF A LATE DAY TSTM THERE. LIGHT WIND
TRENDING EASTERLY MOST TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX
GUST 10-15KT.

WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN SHOWERS
KABE/KRDG/KTTN DURING THE MORNING. E/NE WINDS GUST 15 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR FOG EARLY OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CLOUDS
AOA 4000 FT. N-NW WIND GUST 15 KT.

FRIDAY...VFR CIGS EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CONDS IN ST/FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS NEAR A COLD FRONT.
E-SE WIND BECOMING S OR SW LATE AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN
OFFSHORE AND A WEAK LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO NY STATE TUE. A LIGHT...MOSTLY SWRLY...FLOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS MAY TURN ERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. SEAS AROUND 2 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER DEL BAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY: WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH DEVELOPING EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW
BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NE FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ALONG THE NNJ COAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWARD TO THE ENTIRE ATLC COAST LATER
WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DELAWARE BAY MAY NOT SEE WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 22 KT WITH ANY SCA HEADLINE THERE NOT LIKELY AS OF THIS WRITING.

THURSDAY...SMALL CHANCE OF SCA SEAS ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM NE
SWELLS GENERATED BY AN OFFSHORE LOW.

FRIDAY...WIND BECOMING SOUTH BY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN SCA AT
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA








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