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000
FXUS65 KPIH 190847
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
247 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OF LAST NIGHT WILL CLEAR DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH SUN MORNING...PUTTING EASTERN IDAHO
IN DRY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AIR FLOW. AT THIS POINT THE NEXT
UPSTREAM LOW ARRIVES FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...SWITCHING AIR FLOW
TO SOUTHERLY AND PUMPING UP MOIST UNSTABLE AIR AS EARLY AS SUN
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SUN NIGHT
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS FEATURE DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FOR SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER STARTS A COOL DOWN SUN THAT
CONTINUES AT A LESSER RATE FOR MON. OVERNIGHT LOWS PARTICULARLY
DIFFICULT...BUT WOULD EXPECT COLDER TONIGHT WITH CLEARER SKIES
THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT SUN NIGHT VERY HARD TO SAY. HOWEVER...WITH
THE WARMING ON SAT DO NOT EXPECT ANY TROUBLE WITH THE FREEZING
POINT EXCEPT IN ALPINE BASINS. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT WITH
AFTERNOON BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. MESSICK

.LONG TERM...MON THROUGH THU NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT
DURING THE MORNING ON MON...CONTINUING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALL DAY. BUT BY MON NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD DEVELOP IN WHAT IS
BECOMING A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. BREAK UNDER THIS UPPER LEVEL
HIGH LASTS AT LEAST UNTIL THU...WHEN A HIGH AMPLITUDE...MUCH
STRONGER LOW REACHES THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND PUMPS MOIST AIR IN
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. INCREASING CHANCES FOR THU
NIGHT. THIS LOW COULD BRING MUCH STRONGER WINDS UNDER THE MILD AIR
FLOW. THE LONG WAVE SUPPORTS THE EARLY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH
TUE...THEN THE 500MB FLOW AT THE MID-WEEK PERIOD PUTS THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AT THE COAST AND THUS SUPPORTS THE WET LATE WEEK
SOLUTION. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT DRY/VFR CONDITIONS TODAY FOR TAF SITES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST IDAHO. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 190847
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
247 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OF LAST NIGHT WILL CLEAR DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS A FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH SUN MORNING...PUTTING EASTERN IDAHO
IN DRY WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AIR FLOW. AT THIS POINT THE NEXT
UPSTREAM LOW ARRIVES FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...SWITCHING AIR FLOW
TO SOUTHERLY AND PUMPING UP MOIST UNSTABLE AIR AS EARLY AS SUN
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SUN NIGHT
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS FEATURE DUE TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM FOR SAT...BUT CLOUD COVER STARTS A COOL DOWN SUN THAT
CONTINUES AT A LESSER RATE FOR MON. OVERNIGHT LOWS PARTICULARLY
DIFFICULT...BUT WOULD EXPECT COLDER TONIGHT WITH CLEARER SKIES
THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT SUN NIGHT VERY HARD TO SAY. HOWEVER...WITH
THE WARMING ON SAT DO NOT EXPECT ANY TROUBLE WITH THE FREEZING
POINT EXCEPT IN ALPINE BASINS. WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT WITH
AFTERNOON BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. MESSICK

.LONG TERM...MON THROUGH THU NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT
DURING THE MORNING ON MON...CONTINUING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALL DAY. BUT BY MON NIGHT CLEARING SHOULD DEVELOP IN WHAT IS
BECOMING A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. BREAK UNDER THIS UPPER LEVEL
HIGH LASTS AT LEAST UNTIL THU...WHEN A HIGH AMPLITUDE...MUCH
STRONGER LOW REACHES THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND PUMPS MOIST AIR IN
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. INCREASING CHANCES FOR THU
NIGHT. THIS LOW COULD BRING MUCH STRONGER WINDS UNDER THE MILD AIR
FLOW. THE LONG WAVE SUPPORTS THE EARLY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH
TUE...THEN THE 500MB FLOW AT THE MID-WEEK PERIOD PUTS THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AT THE COAST AND THUS SUPPORTS THE WET LATE WEEK
SOLUTION. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT DRY/VFR CONDITIONS TODAY FOR TAF SITES AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. SOME WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST IDAHO. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE
DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 181932
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
133 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS
SHOWING A SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAC COAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ARE
EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXTENDING FROM NE NEVADA
THROUGH SW MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITABLE VALUES OF .75 TO 1.00 INCHES
WILL SUPPORT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE
CELLS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING. WINDEX VALUES UP TO 40 COMBINED WITH
AMBIENT BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. AT THIS POINT...THE
FAVORED AREAS FOR STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE THE MACKAY TO
DILLON CORRIDOR AND MALTA TO CHESTERFIELD CORRIDOR. THE SRN PORTION
OF INCOMING TROUGH SPLITS FROM THE NRN BRANCH FLOW TONIGHT AS IT
DRIFTS SOUTH INTO CNTRL CALIFORNIA. THE LOCATION OF LOW AND
ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS/MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE ONGOING SHOWERS/CONVECTION
OVER SE IDAHO LATE TONIGHT. THE NRN BRANCH TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING A DISTINCT DRYING TREND TO THE
AREA. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW
DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE SRN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREA SATURDAY BEFORE
LIFTING NE INTO NEVADA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENDING
PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVERSPREADING SE IDAHO SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW WORKS EAST INTO WYOMING (PER THE GFS). THE
ECMWF (00Z) HAS A SIMILAR DEPICTION BUT IS MUCH MORE PROLIFIC WITH
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. FAVORING THE GFS SOLUTION IN THIS REGARD.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE EXITING LOW AS THE NEXT PAC
TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE NW COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY...THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW THE TROUGH WORKING INLAND...THE
ECMWF ADVERTISING ANOTHER SPLITTING TROUGH AND THE GFS SOMEWHAT MORE
CONSOLIDATED INITIALLY (THURSDAY) BUT QUICKLY TRENDING TOWARD A
SPLITTING SOLUTION FRIDAY. SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE HERE (NO PUN
INTENDED) UNTIL MODELS SHOW SOME CONSOLIDATION...THUS CONTINUING
CLIMO-LOOKING PRECIP POTENTIAL THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG UPPER JET IS BISECTING THE THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN THROUGH SUNSET.
TOMORROW WILL BE DRIER WITH ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF TODAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE
SNAKE PLAIN THROUGH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN...MAINLY IN ZONE 413.
OTHERWISE...A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KPIH 181932
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
133 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS
SHOWING A SPLITTING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAC COAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ARE
EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXTENDING FROM NE NEVADA
THROUGH SW MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE SCATTERED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITABLE VALUES OF .75 TO 1.00 INCHES
WILL SUPPORT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...ALTHOUGH THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS POINT DUE TO THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE
CELLS WILL LIKELY BE MOVING. WINDEX VALUES UP TO 40 COMBINED WITH
AMBIENT BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH
WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. AT THIS POINT...THE
FAVORED AREAS FOR STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE THE MACKAY TO
DILLON CORRIDOR AND MALTA TO CHESTERFIELD CORRIDOR. THE SRN PORTION
OF INCOMING TROUGH SPLITS FROM THE NRN BRANCH FLOW TONIGHT AS IT
DRIFTS SOUTH INTO CNTRL CALIFORNIA. THE LOCATION OF LOW AND
ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS/MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE ONGOING SHOWERS/CONVECTION
OVER SE IDAHO LATE TONIGHT. THE NRN BRANCH TROUGH AXIS SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY BRINGING A DISTINCT DRYING TREND TO THE
AREA. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW
DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE SRN CALIFORNIA COASTAL AREA SATURDAY BEFORE
LIFTING NE INTO NEVADA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENDING
PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVERSPREADING SE IDAHO SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW WORKS EAST INTO WYOMING (PER THE GFS). THE
ECMWF (00Z) HAS A SIMILAR DEPICTION BUT IS MUCH MORE PROLIFIC WITH
PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. FAVORING THE GFS SOLUTION IN THIS REGARD.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE EXITING LOW AS THE NEXT PAC
TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE NW COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY...THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW THE TROUGH WORKING INLAND...THE
ECMWF ADVERTISING ANOTHER SPLITTING TROUGH AND THE GFS SOMEWHAT MORE
CONSOLIDATED INITIALLY (THURSDAY) BUT QUICKLY TRENDING TOWARD A
SPLITTING SOLUTION FRIDAY. SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE HERE (NO PUN
INTENDED) UNTIL MODELS SHOW SOME CONSOLIDATION...THUS CONTINUING
CLIMO-LOOKING PRECIP POTENTIAL THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG UPPER JET IS BISECTING THE THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN THROUGH SUNSET.
TOMORROW WILL BE DRIER WITH ANOTHER BREEZY AFTERNOON.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF TODAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE
SNAKE PLAIN THROUGH SUNSET. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN...MAINLY IN ZONE 413.
OTHERWISE...A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KPIH 181406
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
807 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO
EMBELLISH THUNDERSTORM WORDING THIS AFTERNOON OVER CASSIA COUNTY AND
ALONG MACKAY TO DILLON CORRIDOR WHERE BEST SHEAR RESIDES AND
CONSEQUENTLY STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF UPPER TROF MOVING ONTO
PACIFIC COAST TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. AFTER SOME RECORD BREAKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY EXPECT MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BUT ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WITH DRYING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON AND
COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD.
GK

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE BACK INTO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EUROPEAN IS MUCH WETTER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD WITH RAIN THEN GFS WITH GFS MAINLY TARGETING
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. GRIDS HAS INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. GFS MUCH QUICKER WITH NEXT TROF BRINGING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH EUROPEAN MUCH SLOWER
HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. FOR NOW BROUGHT BACK IN SOME
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
PERHAPS SOME COOLING VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD BASED ON TIMING OF NEXT
TROF. GK
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN
VFR HOWEVER. SOME WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER
HALF OF THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. VALLE
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY. VALLE
&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 181406
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
807 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO
EMBELLISH THUNDERSTORM WORDING THIS AFTERNOON OVER CASSIA COUNTY AND
ALONG MACKAY TO DILLON CORRIDOR WHERE BEST SHEAR RESIDES AND
CONSEQUENTLY STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF UPPER TROF MOVING ONTO
PACIFIC COAST TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. AFTER SOME RECORD BREAKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY EXPECT MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BUT ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WITH DRYING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON AND
COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD.
GK

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE BACK INTO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EUROPEAN IS MUCH WETTER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD WITH RAIN THEN GFS WITH GFS MAINLY TARGETING
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. GRIDS HAS INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. GFS MUCH QUICKER WITH NEXT TROF BRINGING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH EUROPEAN MUCH SLOWER
HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. FOR NOW BROUGHT BACK IN SOME
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
PERHAPS SOME COOLING VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD BASED ON TIMING OF NEXT
TROF. GK
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN
VFR HOWEVER. SOME WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER
HALF OF THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. VALLE
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY. VALLE
&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 180848
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
248 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF UPPER TROF MOVING ONTO
PACIFIC COAST TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. AFTER SOME RECORD BREAKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY EXPECT MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BUT ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WITH DRYING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON AND
COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVERHEAD.
GK

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE BACK INTO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EUROPEAN IS MUCH WETTER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD WITH RAIN THEN GFS WITH GFS MAINLY TARGETING
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. GRIDS HAS INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. GFS MUCH QUICKER WITH NEXT TROF BRINGING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH EUROPEAN MUCH SLOWER
HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. FOR NOW BROUGHT BACK IN SOME
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
PERHAPS SOME COOLING VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD BASED ON TIMING OF
NEXT TROF.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN
VFR HOWEVER. SOME WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER
HALF OF THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

VALLE

&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 180848
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
248 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF UPPER TROF MOVING ONTO
PACIFIC COAST TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. AFTER SOME RECORD BREAKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY EXPECT MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS BUT ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WITH DRYING OUT BY THE AFTERNOON AND
COMPLETELY DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVERHEAD.
GK

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE BACK INTO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. EUROPEAN IS MUCH WETTER AND
MORE WIDESPREAD WITH RAIN THEN GFS WITH GFS MAINLY TARGETING
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. GRIDS HAS INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. GFS MUCH QUICKER WITH NEXT TROF BRINGING IN MORE
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH EUROPEAN MUCH SLOWER
HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. FOR NOW BROUGHT BACK IN SOME
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
PERHAPS SOME COOLING VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD BASED ON TIMING OF
NEXT TROF.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EXPECT CEILINGS TO REMAIN
VFR HOWEVER. SOME WIND GUSTS TO 20KTS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER
HALF OF THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY.

VALLE

&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 171955
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS
POSITIONED OFF THE PAC COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WELL
DEFINED SHORT-WAVE FEATURE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE ACCELERATING
TOWARD THE NW CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE
THROUGH NRN CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT WITH ATTENDING CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS NE NEVADA EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH EVENTUALLY
SPREADS NNE INTO SOUTH-CNTRL IDAHO TONIGHT. AS THE EJECTING WAVE
SPREADS INLAND THURSDAY WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SE
IDAHO. A DEVELOPING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AROUND NOON HELPING TO BOOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME FAIRLY
DECENT SHEAR DEVELOPING FROM MACKAY TO DILLON WHICH MAY SUPPORT MORE
ROBUST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TRAILING SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY ADVANCING INTO CNTRL CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PROMOTE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER SOUTH-CNTRL
CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE WAVE SETS UP ACROSS CNTRL
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY EVENING...A SECOND WAVE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NE NEVADA LIFTING INTO SE IDAHO OVERNIGHT.
A DRIER NW FLOW EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADS SE IDAHO FRIDAY AS THE NRN
BRANCH OF THE DEVELOPING SPLIT TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER SOUTH-CNTRL CALIFORNIA DRIFTING NE
INTO NEVADA EARLY SUNDAY. ATTENDING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO/ACROSS SE IDAHO SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A
DRY SW FLOW FOLLOWS TUESDAY AS THE NEXT PAC TROUGH SETS UP OFF THE
NW COAST. THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS NEXT TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE INTO IDAHO AHEAD OF A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERY ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THIS TO INTENSIFY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HEATING DESTABILIZES THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS INTENSIFY
BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE 25 TO 30 KTS AROUND
2000 FT AGL...NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO INCLUDE LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR BUT CLOSE. COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS LATE TOMORROW MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  HINSBERGER
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE DEEP
TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVERNIGHT BRINGING WITH IT
INCREASING MOISTURE. WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IDAHO OVERNIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AROUND
SUNRISE. HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING A SUDDEN
WIND SHIFT. WILL SEE SHOWERS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS AND DRYING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS.  HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 171955
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WAS
POSITIONED OFF THE PAC COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WELL
DEFINED SHORT-WAVE FEATURE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE ACCELERATING
TOWARD THE NW CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE
THROUGH NRN CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT WITH ATTENDING CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ACROSS NE NEVADA EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH EVENTUALLY
SPREADS NNE INTO SOUTH-CNTRL IDAHO TONIGHT. AS THE EJECTING WAVE
SPREADS INLAND THURSDAY WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SE
IDAHO. A DEVELOPING SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AROUND NOON HELPING TO BOOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME FAIRLY
DECENT SHEAR DEVELOPING FROM MACKAY TO DILLON WHICH MAY SUPPORT MORE
ROBUST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TRAILING SHORT-WAVE
ENERGY ADVANCING INTO CNTRL CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PROMOTE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER SOUTH-CNTRL
CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE WAVE SETS UP ACROSS CNTRL
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY EVENING...A SECOND WAVE OF CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NE NEVADA LIFTING INTO SE IDAHO OVERNIGHT.
A DRIER NW FLOW EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADS SE IDAHO FRIDAY AS THE NRN
BRANCH OF THE DEVELOPING SPLIT TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW THE CUT-OFF LOW OVER SOUTH-CNTRL CALIFORNIA DRIFTING NE
INTO NEVADA EARLY SUNDAY. ATTENDING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO/ACROSS SE IDAHO SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A
DRY SW FLOW FOLLOWS TUESDAY AS THE NEXT PAC TROUGH SETS UP OFF THE
NW COAST. THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THIS NEXT TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE INTO IDAHO AHEAD OF A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH. RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERY ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THIS TO INTENSIFY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HEATING DESTABILIZES THE LOW LEVELS. MODELS INTENSIFY
BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE 25 TO 30 KTS AROUND
2000 FT AGL...NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO INCLUDE LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR BUT CLOSE. COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS LATE TOMORROW MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  HINSBERGER
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT OUT OF THE DEEP
TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVERNIGHT BRINGING WITH IT
INCREASING MOISTURE. WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IDAHO OVERNIGHT WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AROUND
SUNRISE. HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT
THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING A SUDDEN
WIND SHIFT. WILL SEE SHOWERS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS AND DRYING HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MAY PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS.  HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 171500
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
900 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO
REFINE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW. HUSTON

UPPER RIDGE PUSHING EAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PUSHING
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN
IDAHO. WILL HAVE VERY WARM CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MANY TEMPERATURES
IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN IN THE LOW 90S ONCE AGAIN. WILL HAVE A
COOL DOWN THURSDAY OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID SEPTEMBER. GK

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING.
BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS NOW AGREEING WITH UPPER LOW MOVING
NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO. DECIDED TO RAISE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN GRIDS IN MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. EUROPEAN IS MUCH WETTER THAN GFS WITH GFS KEEPING RAIN TO
THE SOUTH WHILE EUROPEAN SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PUSHES EAST. GK
&&

.AVIATION...MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO EAST IDAHO TODAY AHEAD
OF PACIFIC TROUGH. MODELS SHOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF KSUN/KPIH LINE. GUSTY
WINDS/SMALL HAIL LIKELY THREATS. MOST PRECIP EXPECTED TO END AROUND
SUNSET BUT ANOTHER SURGE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
DMH
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF PACIFIC COAST CONTINUES TO
PULL MOISTURE INTO EAST IDAHO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND THURSDAY WITH BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER EAST
IDAHO. HIGHEST PW VALUES FOR THURSDAY PEAKING NEAR ONE INCH IN
SOUTHEAST CORNER SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN A POSSIBILITY. TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. DMH
&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS65 KPIH 170906
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
306 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGE PUSHING EAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PUSHING
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN
IDAHO. WILL HAVE VERY WARM CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MANY TEMPERATURES
IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN IN THE LOW 90S ONCE AGAIN. WILL HAVE A
COOL DOWN THURSDAY OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID SEPTEMBER.
GK

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING.
BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS NOW AGREEING WITH UPPER LOW MOVING
NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO. DECIDED TO RAISE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN GRIDS IN MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. EUROPEAN IS MUCH WETTER THAN GFS WITH GFS KEEPING RAIN TO
THE SOUTH WHILE EUROPEAN SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PUSHES EAST.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO EAST IDAHO TODAY AHEAD
OF PACIFIC TROUGH. MODELS SHOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF KSUN/KPIH LINE. GUSTY
WINDS/SMALL HAIL LIKELY THREATS. MOST PRECIP EXPECTED TO END AROUND
SUNSET BUT ANOTHER SURGE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
DMH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF PACIFIC COAST CONTINUES TO
PULL MOISTURE INTO EAST IDAHO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND THURSDAY WITH BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER EAST
IDAHO. HIGHEST PW VALUES FOR THURSDAY PEAKING NEAR ONE INCH IN
SOUTHEAST CORNER SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN A POSSIBILITY. TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. DMH

&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 170906
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
306 AM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER RIDGE PUSHING EAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PUSHING
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. EXPECT MOST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EASTERN
IDAHO. WILL HAVE VERY WARM CONDITIONS TODAY WITH MANY TEMPERATURES
IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN IN THE LOW 90S ONCE AGAIN. WILL HAVE A
COOL DOWN THURSDAY OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID SEPTEMBER.
GK

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING.
BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS NOW AGREEING WITH UPPER LOW MOVING
NORTH FROM CALIFORNIA INTO NORTHERN NEVADA SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO. DECIDED TO RAISE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN GRIDS IN MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. EUROPEAN IS MUCH WETTER THAN GFS WITH GFS KEEPING RAIN TO
THE SOUTH WHILE EUROPEAN SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW PUSHES EAST.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...MID LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLING INTO EAST IDAHO TODAY AHEAD
OF PACIFIC TROUGH. MODELS SHOWING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH OF KSUN/KPIH LINE. GUSTY
WINDS/SMALL HAIL LIKELY THREATS. MOST PRECIP EXPECTED TO END AROUND
SUNSET BUT ANOTHER SURGE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
DMH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF PACIFIC COAST CONTINUES TO
PULL MOISTURE INTO EAST IDAHO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND THURSDAY WITH BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER EAST
IDAHO. HIGHEST PW VALUES FOR THURSDAY PEAKING NEAR ONE INCH IN
SOUTHEAST CORNER SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN A POSSIBILITY. TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. DMH

&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 161955
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTER SPINNING OFF THE NRN CALIFORNIA COAST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE POSITIONED OVER ERN
IDAHO. MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE WERE
VISIBLE ROTATING NE ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE GFS/NAM WERE BOTH SHOWING ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES EJECT FROM THE LOW OFF THE COAST AND ROTATE THROUGH THE
RIDGE. A FEW CELLS MAY PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT BOTH MODELS
WERE MUCH LESS ENTHUSED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
SOME AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE DIVIDE WEDNESDAY. ONE WOULD EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM WERE SHOWING JUST ISOLATED ILL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY WELL DEFINED DYNAMICAL SUPPORT. THE MODELS SHOW
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET LIFTING NE THROUGH ERN OREGON/NORTH IDAHO WITH
ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT A BROAD BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH-CNTRL
IDAHO WHICH EXPANDS EWRD DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE FRONT WHICH
ADVANCES INTO/THROUGH SE IDAHO SHOULD ALSO HELP TO PROMOTE ACTIVE
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO
WHETHER ANY MOISTURE FROM ODILE WILL BE SWEPT NORTHWARD IN THE DEEP
SOUTHERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE NAM APPEARS TO SUPPORT THIS
IDEA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE TRACKING FURTHER EAST OF PREVIOUS PROGS...I AM
LEANING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS SOLUTION. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSES FURTHER INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT...A DEFINITIVE SPLIT OCCURS
WITH THE NRN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH PUSHING FAIRLY RAPIDLY EAST ALONG
THE CANADIAN HIGH-LINE WHILE THE SRN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH SPINS OFF
A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CALIFORNIA (A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN
YESTERDAYS PROGS). THE NORTHERLY PLACEMENT OF THE CUT-OFF LOW
COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED JUST TO OUR
SOUTH HAVE RESULTED IN A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN
THE MODELS AND EXTENDING FROM NE NEVADA ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY BOOSTED THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO RUN TO RUN
MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. BY FRIDAY...THE TAIL END OF THE NRN BRANCH
TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH A DRIER NW FLOW OVERSPREADING
THE REGION. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE POSITION AND
TRACK OF THE CUT-OFF LOW FLOUNDERING OVER CALIFORNIA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THE LATEST 12Z GFS LIFTS THE LOW ENE ACROSS NEVADA SUNDAY
AND NRN UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION CLIPPING
THE FAR SE HIGHLANDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN
TO DRY CONDITIONS AS THE RIDGE REBOUNDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND...RETROGRADES THE LOW OFF THE COAST SUNDAY WHERE
IT REMAINS UNTIL BEING SWEPT INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA MONDAY AND
INTO NRN NEVADA TUESDAY. WITH POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY...HAVE
GENERALLY MAINTAINED THE GOING FORECAST WHICH FAVORS THE GFS
TIMING/TRACK. WILL AWAIT BETTER CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS BEFORE
TRYING TO NAIL DOWN ANY CHANGES IN THIS TIME FRAME. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH UPPER RIDGE IS HELPING
TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON MAY KEEP SHOWERS MORE ACTIVE FOR PIH AND IDA...BUT
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR MODELS INFLUENCED FORECAST AS THEY SUGGEST EARLIER END OF
PRECIP OVER IDA VERSUS THE 12Z NAM. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH PERIOD. HINSBERGER
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CHANNELS MORE MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PEAKS ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE FOCUS BEING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 161955
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTER SPINNING OFF THE NRN CALIFORNIA COAST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE POSITIONED OVER ERN
IDAHO. MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE WERE
VISIBLE ROTATING NE ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE GFS/NAM WERE BOTH SHOWING ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES EJECT FROM THE LOW OFF THE COAST AND ROTATE THROUGH THE
RIDGE. A FEW CELLS MAY PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT BOTH MODELS
WERE MUCH LESS ENTHUSED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
SOME AND SHIFT EAST INTO THE DIVIDE WEDNESDAY. ONE WOULD EXPECT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM WERE SHOWING JUST ISOLATED ILL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN
THE ABSENCE OF ANY WELL DEFINED DYNAMICAL SUPPORT. THE MODELS SHOW
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING INTO THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER JET LIFTING NE THROUGH ERN OREGON/NORTH IDAHO WITH
ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT A BROAD BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH-CNTRL
IDAHO WHICH EXPANDS EWRD DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE FRONT WHICH
ADVANCES INTO/THROUGH SE IDAHO SHOULD ALSO HELP TO PROMOTE ACTIVE
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IT STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS TO
WHETHER ANY MOISTURE FROM ODILE WILL BE SWEPT NORTHWARD IN THE DEEP
SOUTHERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE NAM APPEARS TO SUPPORT THIS
IDEA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH. WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ODILE TRACKING FURTHER EAST OF PREVIOUS PROGS...I AM
LEANING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS SOLUTION. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSES FURTHER INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT...A DEFINITIVE SPLIT OCCURS
WITH THE NRN BRANCH OF THE TROUGH PUSHING FAIRLY RAPIDLY EAST ALONG
THE CANADIAN HIGH-LINE WHILE THE SRN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH SPINS OFF
A CLOSED LOW OVER NRN CALIFORNIA (A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN
YESTERDAYS PROGS). THE NORTHERLY PLACEMENT OF THE CUT-OFF LOW
COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED JUST TO OUR
SOUTH HAVE RESULTED IN A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN
THE MODELS AND EXTENDING FROM NE NEVADA ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE GENERALLY BOOSTED THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO RUN TO RUN
MODEL INCONSISTENCIES. BY FRIDAY...THE TAIL END OF THE NRN BRANCH
TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH A DRIER NW FLOW OVERSPREADING
THE REGION. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE POSITION AND
TRACK OF THE CUT-OFF LOW FLOUNDERING OVER CALIFORNIA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. THE LATEST 12Z GFS LIFTS THE LOW ENE ACROSS NEVADA SUNDAY
AND NRN UTAH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ACCOMPANYING PRECIPITATION CLIPPING
THE FAR SE HIGHLANDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN
TO DRY CONDITIONS AS THE RIDGE REBOUNDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE ECMWF
ON THE OTHER HAND...RETROGRADES THE LOW OFF THE COAST SUNDAY WHERE
IT REMAINS UNTIL BEING SWEPT INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA MONDAY AND
INTO NRN NEVADA TUESDAY. WITH POOR MODEL CONSISTENCY...HAVE
GENERALLY MAINTAINED THE GOING FORECAST WHICH FAVORS THE GFS
TIMING/TRACK. WILL AWAIT BETTER CONSENSUS IN THE MODELS BEFORE
TRYING TO NAIL DOWN ANY CHANGES IN THIS TIME FRAME. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH UPPER RIDGE IS HELPING
TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. INSTABILITY CONTINUING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON MAY KEEP SHOWERS MORE ACTIVE FOR PIH AND IDA...BUT
LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR MODELS INFLUENCED FORECAST AS THEY SUGGEST EARLIER END OF
PRECIP OVER IDA VERSUS THE 12Z NAM. ALL SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH PERIOD. HINSBERGER
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
EXPECT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH CHANNELS MORE MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PEAKS ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT PUSH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE FOCUS BEING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 161505
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
910 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A DISTURBANCE ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
HUSTON

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY WITH MOISTURE NOW PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO FROM WEST WITH WEAK WAVE PUSHING EAST THROUGH
RIDGE TODAY. EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY MAINLY IN MOUNTAINS. VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING
IN WEDNESDAY WITH MORE MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE REGION AND
CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER
TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AND EXPECT MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THEN WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN VERY WARM CONTINUING THE 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH A COOL DOWN THURSDAY
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. GK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD TO WEST ON FRIDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. GK
&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SE IDAHO INTO WED
MORNING.  EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDES UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE.  CONVECTION WILL REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. DSH
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SE IDAHO INTO
MIDWEEK...HOWEVER A WEEK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE TODAY
AND PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.  THIS APPROACHING LOW WILL SHIFT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER SE IDAHO FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH AN INCH OR MORE FOR THURSDAY SO
EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH SE IDAHO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. DSH
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS65 KPIH 161505
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
910 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO
ACCOUNT FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A DISTURBANCE ROTATING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
HUSTON

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD TODAY WITH MOISTURE NOW PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO FROM WEST WITH WEAK WAVE PUSHING EAST THROUGH
RIDGE TODAY. EXPECT SOME ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY MAINLY IN MOUNTAINS. VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. THE RIDGE MOVES EAST WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING
IN WEDNESDAY WITH MORE MOISTURE PUSHING INTO THE REGION AND
CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER
TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY AND EXPECT MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THEN WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN VERY WARM CONTINUING THE 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH A COOL DOWN THURSDAY
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 TO 10 COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. GK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO REBUILD TO WEST ON FRIDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. GK
&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SE IDAHO INTO WED
MORNING.  EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDES UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE.  CONVECTION WILL REMAIN MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. DSH
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SE IDAHO INTO
MIDWEEK...HOWEVER A WEEK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE TODAY
AND PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER
LOW APPROACHES THE WEST COAST.  THIS APPROACHING LOW WILL SHIFT THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY OVER SE IDAHO FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH AN INCH OR MORE FOR THURSDAY SO
EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH SE IDAHO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. DSH
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$













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