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000
FXUS65 KPIH 090951
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
251 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE DURING THIS ENTIRE TIME. THE MAIN RESULT IS FOG
AND STRATUS BELOW THE NIGHT-TIME INVERSIONS. THE FOG IS MORE
WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING COMPARED TO YESTERDAY MORNING. THUS HAVE
ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THE DENSE FOG APPEARS
LIMITED ON CAMERAS AND IN THE OBSERVATIONS TO THE UPPER SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS...INCLUDING THE TETON VALLEY. AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO
NIGHTS LOOK LIKE A REPEAT OF MON NIGHT WITH FOG AND STRATUS
PROBLEMS. UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND MORE MOISTURE IN THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS FOR THU AND THU NIGHT MIGHT MEAN A SHIFT IN WHERE
THE FOG MAY DEVELOP. HAVE TRIED TO EMULATE THIS IN THE GRIDS. THE
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON WARMING FOR THE
PLAIN AND VALLEY ZONES...WHILE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS
WILL BASK IN SUNSHINE...APPROACHING THE 50 DEGREE MARK FOR THE
AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT THAT LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD GET A BREAK
IN THE COLD TEMPERATURES IF THE STRATUS CAN BREAK AND SKIES
CLEAR...BUT IT DIDNT HAPPEN YESTERDAY. LIGHT WIND CONTINUES EXCEPT
ABOVE 9000 FT ELEVATION.  MESSICK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING TO THE EAST ON FRI...BEING
REPLACED BY AN UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE PAC NW ON SAT. MODELS HAVE
BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING LIGHT PRECIP TO THE CENTRAL
MTNS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS SAT AND SUN. BROAD UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
IN BEHIND THE TROF...BUT AMPLITUDE IS LOW. THIS ALLOWS PAC MOISTURE
TO MOVE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS BY TUE NIGHT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT PRECIP. HEDGES
&&

.AVIATION...PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE IS RESULTING IN INVERSION
CONDITIONS. LOW CIGS/FOG FILL MUCH OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY THIS MORN. SHOULD SEE LIMITED IMPROVEMENT BY THIS
AFTN... STAYING BELOW VFR. CIG/VIS EXPECTED TO DROP AGAIN TONIGHT.
LOW CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF KSUN. HEDGES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR IDZ019-020.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 090358
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
857 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WE ARE SEEING A FEW AREAS
WITH DENSE FOG THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY AROUND IDAHO FALLS TO
INL...DRIGGS...AND AT THE I-86/84 INTERSECTION NEAR RAFT RIVER. WE
ARE CARRYING AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN THE FORECAST AND AT THIS POINT I
THINK IT IS SUFFICIENT TO COVER WHAT WE HAVE GOING ON THIS EVENING.
IF CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FURTHER...WE MAY NEED TO FOLLOW WITH AN
ADVISORY. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

SURFACE INVERSIONS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND SNAKE PLAIN WILL
INCREASE IN STRENGTH THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS
EXCEPT THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY WHERE AN EASTERLY SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT
LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT TIMES WILL PERSIST IN THE SNAKE PLAIN. THE
EAST WINDS AROUND SHOSHONE AND GOODING AREA MAY SUCCEED IN NUDGING
SOME OF THE STRATUS OFF TO THE WEST TOWARDS BOISE. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE STRATUS COULD HELP LIMIT THE FORMATION OF DENSE FOG
AT THE GROUND. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING. AS LONG
AS THE STRATUS HOLDS...TEMPERATURES WILL RESIST ANY BIG WARM UP/COOL
DOWN. OUTSIDE OF THE STRATUS...TEMPERATURES ON THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 40S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SAWTOOTH AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. LIMITED SNOW MELT AND RUN OFF WILL PROBABLY OCCUR
ON A FEW SMALL STREAMS...BUT THERE IS NO FORECAST RAIN ON THE SNOW
PACK TO GREATLY ACCELERATE RUN OFF. RS

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. STRONG UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WEST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD FRIDAY WHILE MODERATE SHORTWAVE PUNCHES THROUGH. THERE IS
ABOUT A 12 HOUR TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH THE
ECMWF BEING THE FASTER OF THE MODELS. THE SHORTWAVE MAY HELP ERODE
THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION ALLOWING SOME MIXING TO OCCUR...BUT MOST OF
THE ENERGY WILL LIKELY RIDE INTO NORTHERN IDAHO. AFTER SUNDAY...GFS
RE-ESTABLISHES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF GIVES
US A FLATTER...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH MORE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO ON-GOING FORECAST AND AM KEEPING LOW CHANCE
POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR SATURDAY. HINSBERGER
&&

.AIR STAGNATION...LOW LEVEL INVERSION CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE
UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY. AFTER
THAT...ADDITION OF SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HELP
MODIFY THE INVERSION CONDITIONS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING SOME STRONGER WINDS
AND MIXING. RS
&&

.AVIATION...CHALLENGE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TRACKING THE
FOG/STRATUS FIELD IN THE SNAKE PLAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UPPER
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION PERSISTS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD FOR PIH AND IDA. BYI MAY SEE VFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MOS GUIDANCE AND BUFR TIME-HEIGHTS SUGGESTING
SO...BUT EXPECT TO SEE STRATUS RETURN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. SUN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR BUT WITH UP-VALLEY WINDS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME OF THE STRATUS MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THAT TERMINAL.
HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 082049
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
149 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE INVERSIONS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND SNAKE
PLAIN WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY WHERE AN EASTERLY
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT TIMES WILL PERSIST IN
THE SNAKE PLAIN. THE EAST WINDS AROUND SHOSHONE AND GOODING AREA MAY
SUCCEED IN NUDGING SOME OF THE STRATUS OFF TO THE WEST TOWARDS
BOISE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE STRATUS COULD HELP LIMIT THE
FORMATION OF DENSE FOG AT THE GROUND. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
LATE THIS EVENING. AS LONG AS THE STRATUS HOLDS...TEMPERATURES
WILL RESIST ANY BIG WARM UP/COOL DOWN. OUTSIDE OF THE
STRATUS...TEMPERATURES ON THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER 40S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SAWTOOTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. LIMITED SNOW MELT AND RUN OFF WILL PROBABLY OCCUR ON A
FEW SMALL STREAMS...BUT THERE IS NO FORECAST RAIN ON THE SNOW PACK
TO GREATLY ACCELERATE RUN OFF. RS

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. STRONG UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WEST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD FRIDAY WHILE MODERATE SHORTWAVE PUNCHES THROUGH. THERE IS
ABOUT A 12 HOUR TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH THE
ECMWF BEING THE FASTER OF THE MODELS. THE SHORTWAVE MAY HELP ERODE
THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION ALLOWING SOME MIXING TO OCCUR...BUT MOST OF
THE ENERGY WILL LIKELY RIDE INTO NORTHERN IDAHO. AFTER SUNDAY...GFS
RE-ESTABLISHES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF GIVES
US A FLATTER...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH MORE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO ON-GOING FORECAST AND AM KEEPING LOW CHANCE
POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR SATURDAY. HINSBERGER

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...LOW LEVEL INVERSION CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE
UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY. AFTER
THAT...ADDITION OF SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HELP
MODIFY THE INVERSION CONDITIONS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING SOME STRONGER WINDS
AND MIXING. RS

&&

.AVIATION...CHALLENGE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TRACKING THE
FOG/STRATUS FIELD IN THE SNAKE PLAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UPPER
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION PERSISTS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD FOR PIH AND IDA. BYI MAY SEE VFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MOS GUIDANCE AND BUFR TIME-HEIGHTS SUGGESTING
SO...BUT EXPECT TO SEE STRATUS RETURN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. SUN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR BUT WITH UP-VALLEY WINDS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME OF THE STRATUS MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THAT TERMINAL.
HINSBERGER

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 082049
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
149 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE INVERSIONS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND SNAKE
PLAIN WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY WHERE AN EASTERLY
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT TIMES WILL PERSIST IN
THE SNAKE PLAIN. THE EAST WINDS AROUND SHOSHONE AND GOODING AREA MAY
SUCCEED IN NUDGING SOME OF THE STRATUS OFF TO THE WEST TOWARDS
BOISE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE STRATUS COULD HELP LIMIT THE
FORMATION OF DENSE FOG AT THE GROUND. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
LATE THIS EVENING. AS LONG AS THE STRATUS HOLDS...TEMPERATURES
WILL RESIST ANY BIG WARM UP/COOL DOWN. OUTSIDE OF THE
STRATUS...TEMPERATURES ON THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER 40S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SAWTOOTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. LIMITED SNOW MELT AND RUN OFF WILL PROBABLY OCCUR ON A
FEW SMALL STREAMS...BUT THERE IS NO FORECAST RAIN ON THE SNOW PACK
TO GREATLY ACCELERATE RUN OFF. RS

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. STRONG UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WEST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD FRIDAY WHILE MODERATE SHORTWAVE PUNCHES THROUGH. THERE IS
ABOUT A 12 HOUR TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH THE
ECMWF BEING THE FASTER OF THE MODELS. THE SHORTWAVE MAY HELP ERODE
THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION ALLOWING SOME MIXING TO OCCUR...BUT MOST OF
THE ENERGY WILL LIKELY RIDE INTO NORTHERN IDAHO. AFTER SUNDAY...GFS
RE-ESTABLISHES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF GIVES
US A FLATTER...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH MORE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO ON-GOING FORECAST AND AM KEEPING LOW CHANCE
POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR SATURDAY. HINSBERGER

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...LOW LEVEL INVERSION CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE
UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY. AFTER
THAT...ADDITION OF SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HELP
MODIFY THE INVERSION CONDITIONS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING SOME STRONGER WINDS
AND MIXING. RS

&&

.AVIATION...CHALLENGE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TRACKING THE
FOG/STRATUS FIELD IN THE SNAKE PLAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UPPER
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION PERSISTS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD FOR PIH AND IDA. BYI MAY SEE VFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MOS GUIDANCE AND BUFR TIME-HEIGHTS SUGGESTING
SO...BUT EXPECT TO SEE STRATUS RETURN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. SUN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR BUT WITH UP-VALLEY WINDS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME OF THE STRATUS MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THAT TERMINAL.
HINSBERGER

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 082049
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
149 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE INVERSIONS IN THE LOWER VALLEYS AND SNAKE
PLAIN WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY WHERE AN EASTERLY
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH EACH
AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT TIMES WILL PERSIST IN
THE SNAKE PLAIN. THE EAST WINDS AROUND SHOSHONE AND GOODING AREA MAY
SUCCEED IN NUDGING SOME OF THE STRATUS OFF TO THE WEST TOWARDS
BOISE. IN THE MEANTIME...THE STRATUS COULD HELP LIMIT THE
FORMATION OF DENSE FOG AT THE GROUND. AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
LATE THIS EVENING. AS LONG AS THE STRATUS HOLDS...TEMPERATURES
WILL RESIST ANY BIG WARM UP/COOL DOWN. OUTSIDE OF THE
STRATUS...TEMPERATURES ON THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES WILL WARM INTO THE
LOWER 40S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SAWTOOTH AND SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. LIMITED SNOW MELT AND RUN OFF WILL PROBABLY OCCUR ON A
FEW SMALL STREAMS...BUT THERE IS NO FORECAST RAIN ON THE SNOW PACK
TO GREATLY ACCELERATE RUN OFF. RS

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. STRONG UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WEST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD FRIDAY WHILE MODERATE SHORTWAVE PUNCHES THROUGH. THERE IS
ABOUT A 12 HOUR TIMING DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH THE
ECMWF BEING THE FASTER OF THE MODELS. THE SHORTWAVE MAY HELP ERODE
THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION ALLOWING SOME MIXING TO OCCUR...BUT MOST OF
THE ENERGY WILL LIKELY RIDE INTO NORTHERN IDAHO. AFTER SUNDAY...GFS
RE-ESTABLISHES THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST WHILE THE ECMWF GIVES
US A FLATTER...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH MORE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO ON-GOING FORECAST AND AM KEEPING LOW CHANCE
POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR SATURDAY. HINSBERGER

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...LOW LEVEL INVERSION CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE
UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY. AFTER
THAT...ADDITION OF SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HELP
MODIFY THE INVERSION CONDITIONS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING SOME STRONGER WINDS
AND MIXING. RS

&&

.AVIATION...CHALLENGE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE TRACKING THE
FOG/STRATUS FIELD IN THE SNAKE PLAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. UPPER
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION PERSISTS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD FOR PIH AND IDA. BYI MAY SEE VFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MOS GUIDANCE AND BUFR TIME-HEIGHTS SUGGESTING
SO...BUT EXPECT TO SEE STRATUS RETURN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. SUN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR BUT WITH UP-VALLEY WINDS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME OF THE STRATUS MAY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THAT TERMINAL.
HINSBERGER

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 081012
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
312 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
LEAVES VALLEY FOG/STRATUS AND ITS EFFECTS AS THE ONLY FORECAST
PROBLEM. CURRENTLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS LIFTED IN MOST
PLACES TO A STRATUS. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL EARLY AND THERE IS THE
THREAT THAT IT COULD CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND BECOME DENSE FOG ONCE
AGAIN. BELIEVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY SHOULD STAY OUT AT LEAST
UNTIL SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WHEN COOLING/CONDENSATION REACHES ITS
PEAK. NAM BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FORECASTS ALSO POINT TO IT
BEING WORSE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING...SO HAVE BEEFED UP THE TIME EXTENT
OF THE FOG. THE OTHER FORECAST PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES. THE
STRATUS WILL LIKELY KEEP THINGS COLD WITH SMALL TEMPERATURE
SPREADS IN THE VALLEYS...WHILE THE RIDGES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WILL HAVE 30 DEGREE SPREADS BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW INSTEAD. NO
CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCKED IN
PLACE FOR AT LEAST A WEEK. MESSICK

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...THE
HISTORICALLY STRONG RIDGE HAS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT BUT STILL REMAINS
STRONG ENOUGH TO EFFECTIVELY BLOCK PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH. THE
RIDGE DOES APPEAR TO STRENGTHEN IN THE FRI-SAT TIME FRAME AS THE
POLAR VORTEX SACKS NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ENSURE STRONG INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH MID AND UPPER SLOPES CONTINUING TO EXPERIENCE
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUD CHANCES
FOR VALLEYS...ALONG WITH DEGRADED AIR QUALITY. A DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACNW FOR LATE WEEKEND. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN GEM HAVE WEAKENED THIS SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY...WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HINT AT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ENSEMBLES FAVOR THE ECMWF...BUT ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF DEPICTION. THUS WILL LOWER POPS
SOMEWHAT FOR THE LATE WEEKEND PERIOD BUT RETAIN SOME SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL. THIS MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS WELL
AS NEIGHBORS. SHOULD LATER FORECAST CYCLES CONTINUE THE WEAKENING
TREND...PRECIPITATION MAY HAVE TO BE REMOVED FROM THE WEEKEND
FORECAST ENTIRELY. AD/MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS AS
FOG HAS LIFTED INTO A LIFR LOW STRATUS DECK AT BYI...IDA AND PIH.
MODEL TIME-HEIGHT AND CROSS SECTION PLOTS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN FOG VS.
STRATUS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING THE FORECAST FOR CIG
AND VIS EVOLUTION A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE. WILL LIKELY SEE CONTINUED
FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG AND VIS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR IMPROVEMENT AROUND 18Z MON. WILL LIKELY SEE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE AGAIN AROUND SUNSET MONDAY. KSUN LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AD/MESSICK. &&

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR IDZ019>021.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 081012
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
312 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
LEAVES VALLEY FOG/STRATUS AND ITS EFFECTS AS THE ONLY FORECAST
PROBLEM. CURRENTLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS LIFTED IN MOST
PLACES TO A STRATUS. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL EARLY AND THERE IS THE
THREAT THAT IT COULD CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND BECOME DENSE FOG ONCE
AGAIN. BELIEVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY SHOULD STAY OUT AT LEAST
UNTIL SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WHEN COOLING/CONDENSATION REACHES ITS
PEAK. NAM BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FORECASTS ALSO POINT TO IT
BEING WORSE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING...SO HAVE BEEFED UP THE TIME EXTENT
OF THE FOG. THE OTHER FORECAST PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES. THE
STRATUS WILL LIKELY KEEP THINGS COLD WITH SMALL TEMPERATURE
SPREADS IN THE VALLEYS...WHILE THE RIDGES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WILL HAVE 30 DEGREE SPREADS BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW INSTEAD. NO
CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCKED IN
PLACE FOR AT LEAST A WEEK. MESSICK

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...THE
HISTORICALLY STRONG RIDGE HAS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT BUT STILL REMAINS
STRONG ENOUGH TO EFFECTIVELY BLOCK PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH. THE
RIDGE DOES APPEAR TO STRENGTHEN IN THE FRI-SAT TIME FRAME AS THE
POLAR VORTEX SACKS NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ENSURE STRONG INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH MID AND UPPER SLOPES CONTINUING TO EXPERIENCE
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUD CHANCES
FOR VALLEYS...ALONG WITH DEGRADED AIR QUALITY. A DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACNW FOR LATE WEEKEND. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN GEM HAVE WEAKENED THIS SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY...WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HINT AT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ENSEMBLES FAVOR THE ECMWF...BUT ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF DEPICTION. THUS WILL LOWER POPS
SOMEWHAT FOR THE LATE WEEKEND PERIOD BUT RETAIN SOME SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL. THIS MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS WELL
AS NEIGHBORS. SHOULD LATER FORECAST CYCLES CONTINUE THE WEAKENING
TREND...PRECIPITATION MAY HAVE TO BE REMOVED FROM THE WEEKEND
FORECAST ENTIRELY. AD/MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS AS
FOG HAS LIFTED INTO A LIFR LOW STRATUS DECK AT BYI...IDA AND PIH.
MODEL TIME-HEIGHT AND CROSS SECTION PLOTS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN FOG VS.
STRATUS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING THE FORECAST FOR CIG
AND VIS EVOLUTION A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE. WILL LIKELY SEE CONTINUED
FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG AND VIS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR IMPROVEMENT AROUND 18Z MON. WILL LIKELY SEE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE AGAIN AROUND SUNSET MONDAY. KSUN LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AD/MESSICK. &&

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR IDZ019>021.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 081012
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
312 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
LEAVES VALLEY FOG/STRATUS AND ITS EFFECTS AS THE ONLY FORECAST
PROBLEM. CURRENTLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS LIFTED IN MOST
PLACES TO A STRATUS. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL EARLY AND THERE IS THE
THREAT THAT IT COULD CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND BECOME DENSE FOG ONCE
AGAIN. BELIEVE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY SHOULD STAY OUT AT LEAST
UNTIL SUNRISE THIS MORNING...WHEN COOLING/CONDENSATION REACHES ITS
PEAK. NAM BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FORECASTS ALSO POINT TO IT
BEING WORSE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING...SO HAVE BEEFED UP THE TIME EXTENT
OF THE FOG. THE OTHER FORECAST PROBLEM IS TEMPERATURES. THE
STRATUS WILL LIKELY KEEP THINGS COLD WITH SMALL TEMPERATURE
SPREADS IN THE VALLEYS...WHILE THE RIDGES AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WILL HAVE 30 DEGREE SPREADS BETWEEN HIGH AND LOW INSTEAD. NO
CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCKED IN
PLACE FOR AT LEAST A WEEK. MESSICK

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...THE
HISTORICALLY STRONG RIDGE HAS FLATTENED SOMEWHAT BUT STILL REMAINS
STRONG ENOUGH TO EFFECTIVELY BLOCK PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH. THE
RIDGE DOES APPEAR TO STRENGTHEN IN THE FRI-SAT TIME FRAME AS THE
POLAR VORTEX SACKS NEW ENGLAND. THIS SHOULD ENSURE STRONG INVERSIONS
REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH MID AND UPPER SLOPES CONTINUING TO EXPERIENCE
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH PERSISTENT FOG AND LOW CLOUD CHANCES
FOR VALLEYS...ALONG WITH DEGRADED AIR QUALITY. A DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE PACNW FOR LATE WEEKEND. THE
GFS AND CANADIAN GEM HAVE WEAKENED THIS SYSTEM CONSIDERABLY...WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO HINT AT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ENSEMBLES FAVOR THE ECMWF...BUT ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER
THAN THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF DEPICTION. THUS WILL LOWER POPS
SOMEWHAT FOR THE LATE WEEKEND PERIOD BUT RETAIN SOME SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL. THIS MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS AS WELL
AS NEIGHBORS. SHOULD LATER FORECAST CYCLES CONTINUE THE WEAKENING
TREND...PRECIPITATION MAY HAVE TO BE REMOVED FROM THE WEEKEND
FORECAST ENTIRELY. AD/MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS AS
FOG HAS LIFTED INTO A LIFR LOW STRATUS DECK AT BYI...IDA AND PIH.
MODEL TIME-HEIGHT AND CROSS SECTION PLOTS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN FOG VS.
STRATUS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAKING THE FORECAST FOR CIG
AND VIS EVOLUTION A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE. WILL LIKELY SEE CONTINUED
FLUCTUATIONS IN CIG AND VIS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR IMPROVEMENT AROUND 18Z MON. WILL LIKELY SEE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE AGAIN AROUND SUNSET MONDAY. KSUN LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AD/MESSICK. &&

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR IDZ019>021.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 080323
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
823 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD AREA OF FOG/STRATUS THROUGHOUT
THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN...MAINLY FROM POCATELLO NORTHEAST AND
INCLUDING THE ISLAND PARK AND TETON VALLEY AREAS. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST UPPER CLOUD DECK OBSCURING VIEW OF LOWER CLOUDS BUT
WEB CAMS STARTING TO SHOW DECREASING VISIBILITY IN SPOTS.
INVERSIONS CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND SFC OBSERVATIONS
ALREADY INDICATING PATCHY DENSE VIS. WILL ISSUE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH NOON MONDAY. DMH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 112 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF FOG AND
STRATUS REFUSES TO BUDGE ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN AND
HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT IT WILL
FULLY DISSIPATE BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BEFORE
SUNSET. THERE ARE A FEW OTHER POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS BUT THOSE SEEM
TO BE THINNING OUT QUICKER. THIS UNUSUALLY STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. THAT WILL SERVE TO
STRENGTHEN VALLEY INVERSIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXPECT MORE STRATUS
AND/OR FREEZING FOG FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. WHILE WE COULD SEE
SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON ALONG THE EDGES OF ANY
STRATUS FILLED VALLEY OR PLAIN...IT WOULD BE VERY SHORT LIVED AND
FILL BACK IN AFTER DARK. WHERE THE INVERSIONS HOLD...HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S. IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ANYWHERE
THAT THE INVERSION BREAKS...TEMPERATURES WILL SHOOT INTO THE 40S.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME MOUNTAIN WILL PUSH PAST 50 DEGREES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT RAPID SNOWMELT
AND IMPACTS RELATED TO THAT INCLUDING POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING. AT
NIGHT...MOST AREAS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...IT IS VERY
POSSIBLE THAT SOME MID/UPPER SLOPES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MAY NOT AND DROP TO ONLY AROUND 34-35
DEGREES. KEYES

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DOMINANT THRU FRI. INVERSION CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN NIGHTTIME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN VALLEYS. TEMPS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF BRING AN UPPER TROF INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS MOVES IT THRU IDAHO MUCH QUICKER. ONLY
LOOKING FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT ON ACTUAL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM.  CURRENT TREND THEN IS TO DEVELOP A RIDGE BACK OVER THE
WESTERN STATES WITH BOTH GFS AND EC MODELS TRENDING SIMILAR WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

PRESTON/HEDGES

AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS/FOG IN THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN LINGER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW...
ESPECIALLY WITH KIDA.  POSSIBLE CLOUD DECK TO REDEVELOP OVER KPIH
OVERNIGHT SO HAVE ADDED THIS INFO INTO THE TAF. PRESTON

AIR STAGNATION...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE NEXT
WEEK...WE ARE EXPECTING THAT AIR QUALITY WILL WORSEN ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEYS WHERE LITTLE TO NO MIXING OCCURS. WHILE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF AIR
QUALITY RAPIDLY IMPROVES. THE PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT THE DIRTY AIR. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST MONDAY FOR IDZ019>021.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 072012 CCA
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
112 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF FOG AND
STRATUS REFUSES TO BUDGE ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN AND
HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT IT WILL
FULLY DISSIPATE BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BEFORE
SUNSET. THERE ARE A FEW OTHER POCKETS OF LOW CLOUDS BUT THOSE SEEM
TO BE THINNING OUT QUICKER. THIS UNUSUALLY STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST. THAT WILL SERVE TO
STRENGTHEN VALLEY INVERSIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXPECT MORE STRATUS
AND/OR FREEZING FOG FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. WHILE WE COULD SEE
SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON ALONG THE EDGES OF ANY
STRATUS FILLED VALLEY OR PLAIN...IT WOULD BE VERY SHORT LIVED AND
FILL BACK IN AFTER DARK. WHERE THE INVERSIONS HOLD...HIGHS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S. IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ANYWHERE
THAT THE INVERSION BREAKS...TEMPERATURES WILL SHOOT INTO THE 40S.
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME MOUNTAIN WILL PUSH PAST 50 DEGREES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT RAPID SNOWMELT
AND IMPACTS RELATED TO THAT INCLUDING POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING. AT
NIGHT...MOST AREAS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...IT IS VERY
POSSIBLE THAT SOME MID/UPPER SLOPES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS MAY NOT AND DROP TO ONLY AROUND 34-35
DEGREES. KEYES

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DOMINANT THRU FRI. INVERSION CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN NIGHTTIME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN VALLEYS. TEMPS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF BRING AN UPPER TROF INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS MOVES IT THRU IDAHO MUCH QUICKER. ONLY
LOOKING FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT ON ACTUAL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM.  CURRENT TREND THEN IS TO DEVELOP A RIDGE BACK OVER THE
WESTERN STATES WITH BOTH GFS AND EC MODELS TRENDING SIMILAR WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

PRESTON/HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS/FOG IN THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN LINGER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW...
ESPECIALLY WITH KIDA.  POSSIBLE CLOUD DECK TO REDEVELOP OVER KPIH
OVERNIGHT SO HAVE ADDED THIS INFO INTO THE TAF. PRESTON

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE NEXT
WEEK...WE ARE EXPECTING THAT AIR QUALITY WILL WORSEN ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEYS WHERE LITTLE TO NO MIXING OCCURS. WHILE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF AIR
QUALITY RAPIDLY IMPROVES. THE PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT THE DIRTY AIR. KEYES


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 072012
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
112 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF FOG AND
STRATUS REFUSES TO BUDGE ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT IT WILL FULLY DISSIPATE
BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BEFORE SUNSET. THIS
UNUSUALLY STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING ACROSS
THE WEST. THAT WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN VALLEY INVERSIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. EXPECT MORE STRATUS AND/OR FREEZING FOG FOR MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE EDGES OF ANY STRATUS FILLED VALLEY OR
PLAIN...IT WOULD BE VERY SHORT LIVED AND FILL BACK IN AFTER DARK.
WHERE THE INVERSIONS HOLD...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S TO MID
30S. IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ANYWHERE THAT THE INVERSION
BREAKS...TEMPERATURES WILL SHOOT INTO THE 40S. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
SOME MOUNTAIN WILL PUSH PAST 50 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE
ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT RAPID SNOWMELT AND IMPACTS RELATED TO
THAT INCLUDING POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING. AT NIGHT...MOST AREAS WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT SOME
MID/UPPER SLOPES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS MAY NOT AND DROP TO ONLY AROUND 34-35 DEGREES. KEYES

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DOMINANT THRU FRI. INVERSION CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN NIGHTTIME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN VALLEYS. TEMPS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF BRING AN UPPER TROF INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS MOVES IT THRU IDAHO MUCH QUICKER. ONLY
LOOKING FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT ON ACTUAL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM.  CURRENT TREND THEN IS TO DEVELOP A RIDGE BACK OVER THE
WESTERN STATES WITH BOTH GFS AND EC MODELS TRENDING SIMILAR WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

PRESTON/HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS/FOG IN THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN LINGER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW...
ESPECIALLY WITH KIDA.  POSSIBLE CLOUD DECK TO REDEVELOP OVER KPIH
OVERNIGHT SO HAVE ADDED THIS INFO INTO THE TAF. PRESTON

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE NEXT
WEEK...WE ARE EXPECTING THAT AIR QUALITY WILL WORSEN ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEYS WHERE LITTLE TO NO MIXING OCCURS. WHILE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF AIR
QUALITY RAPIDLY IMPROVES. THE PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT THE DIRTY AIR. KEYES


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 072012
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
112 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF FOG AND
STRATUS REFUSES TO BUDGE ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT IT WILL FULLY DISSIPATE
BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BEFORE SUNSET. THIS
UNUSUALLY STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING ACROSS
THE WEST. THAT WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN VALLEY INVERSIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. EXPECT MORE STRATUS AND/OR FREEZING FOG FOR MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE EDGES OF ANY STRATUS FILLED VALLEY OR
PLAIN...IT WOULD BE VERY SHORT LIVED AND FILL BACK IN AFTER DARK.
WHERE THE INVERSIONS HOLD...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S TO MID
30S. IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ANYWHERE THAT THE INVERSION
BREAKS...TEMPERATURES WILL SHOOT INTO THE 40S. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
SOME MOUNTAIN WILL PUSH PAST 50 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE
ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT RAPID SNOWMELT AND IMPACTS RELATED TO
THAT INCLUDING POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING. AT NIGHT...MOST AREAS WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT SOME
MID/UPPER SLOPES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS MAY NOT AND DROP TO ONLY AROUND 34-35 DEGREES. KEYES

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DOMINANT THRU FRI. INVERSION CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN NIGHTTIME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN VALLEYS. TEMPS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF BRING AN UPPER TROF INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS MOVES IT THRU IDAHO MUCH QUICKER. ONLY
LOOKING FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT ON ACTUAL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM.  CURRENT TREND THEN IS TO DEVELOP A RIDGE BACK OVER THE
WESTERN STATES WITH BOTH GFS AND EC MODELS TRENDING SIMILAR WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

PRESTON/HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS/FOG IN THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN LINGER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW...
ESPECIALLY WITH KIDA.  POSSIBLE CLOUD DECK TO REDEVELOP OVER KPIH
OVERNIGHT SO HAVE ADDED THIS INFO INTO THE TAF. PRESTON

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE NEXT
WEEK...WE ARE EXPECTING THAT AIR QUALITY WILL WORSEN ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEYS WHERE LITTLE TO NO MIXING OCCURS. WHILE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF AIR
QUALITY RAPIDLY IMPROVES. THE PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT THE DIRTY AIR. KEYES


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 072012
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
112 PM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF FOG AND
STRATUS REFUSES TO BUDGE ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT IT WILL FULLY DISSIPATE
BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BEFORE SUNSET. THIS
UNUSUALLY STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING ACROSS
THE WEST. THAT WILL SERVE TO STRENGTHEN VALLEY INVERSIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. EXPECT MORE STRATUS AND/OR FREEZING FOG FOR MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS. WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME IMPROVING CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE EDGES OF ANY STRATUS FILLED VALLEY OR
PLAIN...IT WOULD BE VERY SHORT LIVED AND FILL BACK IN AFTER DARK.
WHERE THE INVERSIONS HOLD...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S TO MID
30S. IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ANYWHERE THAT THE INVERSION
BREAKS...TEMPERATURES WILL SHOOT INTO THE 40S. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
SOME MOUNTAIN WILL PUSH PAST 50 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE
ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT RAPID SNOWMELT AND IMPACTS RELATED TO
THAT INCLUDING POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING. AT NIGHT...MOST AREAS WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER...IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT SOME
MID/UPPER SLOPES ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS MAY NOT AND DROP TO ONLY AROUND 34-35 DEGREES. KEYES

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DOMINANT THRU FRI. INVERSION CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN NIGHTTIME LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG IN VALLEYS. TEMPS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF BRING AN UPPER TROF INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS MOVES IT THRU IDAHO MUCH QUICKER. ONLY
LOOKING FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT ON ACTUAL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM.  CURRENT TREND THEN IS TO DEVELOP A RIDGE BACK OVER THE
WESTERN STATES WITH BOTH GFS AND EC MODELS TRENDING SIMILAR WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

PRESTON/HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS/FOG IN THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN LINGER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THAT TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW...
ESPECIALLY WITH KIDA.  POSSIBLE CLOUD DECK TO REDEVELOP OVER KPIH
OVERNIGHT SO HAVE ADDED THIS INFO INTO THE TAF. PRESTON

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE NEXT
WEEK...WE ARE EXPECTING THAT AIR QUALITY WILL WORSEN ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEYS WHERE LITTLE TO NO MIXING OCCURS. WHILE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF AIR
QUALITY RAPIDLY IMPROVES. THE PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT THE DIRTY AIR. KEYES


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 071629 AAA
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
929 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...WE DOING A QUICK UPDATE TO BETTER REFLECT WHERE LOW
CLOUDS AND/OR FOG PERSIST THIS MORNING. WE ENDED UP NOT SEEING
MUCH IF ANY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SO WE REMOVED IT FROM THE
FORECAST. IT LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THE MOUNTAINS ARE STARTING OFF A
BIT WARMER THAN EXPECTED...SO WE DID UP HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
SEVERAL RANGES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. WE ALSO
ADJUSTED A FEW VALLEY SPOTS DOWN A BIT BASED ON A COLDER START OR
LONGER PERSISTENCE OF STRATUS/FOG. KEYES

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER IDAHO.  EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS
MORNING. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG WITH VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES PARTICULARLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WYATT

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DOMINANT THRU FRI. INVERSION
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN NIGHTTIME LOW CLDS AND PATCHY FOG IN
VALLEYS. TEMPS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING AN UPPER TROF INTO THE PAC NW ON SAT...BUT
THE GFS MOVES IT THRU ID MUCH QUICKER. ONLY LOOKING FOR LIGHT MTN
SNOW BOTH SAT AND SUN. THE MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE SUN NIGHT. THE
ECMWF BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE BACK INTO THE WEST...WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS A MORE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER THE
NORTHERN MTNS SUN NIGHT...LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION.
HEDGES

AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS/FOG IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN EARLY THIS
MORN SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN. LOW CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 071026
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
326 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENT WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER IDAHO.  EXPECT PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS
MORNING. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS EXPECT MORE WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG WITH VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES PARTICULARLY FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WYATT

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DOMINANT THRU FRI. INVERSION
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN NIGHTTIME LOW CLDS AND PATCHY FOG IN
VALLEYS. TEMPS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
BOTH GFS AND ECMWF BRING AN UPPER TROF INTO THE PAC NW ON SAT...BUT
THE GFS MOVES IT THRU ID MUCH QUICKER. ONLY LOOKING FOR LIGHT MTN
SNOW BOTH SAT AND SUN. THE MODELS DIVERGE EVEN MORE SUN NIGHT. THE
ECMWF BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE BACK INTO THE WEST...WHILE THE GFS
MAINTAINS A MORE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER THE
NORTHERN MTNS SUN NIGHT...LEANING TOWARD THE DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION.
HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS/FOG IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN EARLY THIS
MORN SHOULD IMPROVE BY AFTN. LOW CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 070415
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
915 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER NORTHEAST IDAHO
AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DRIVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AREA
WEB CAMS SHOW NO EVIDENCE OF SNOWFALL EVEN IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. HAVE NUDGED POPS DOWN LEAVING
SLIVER OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DIRECTLY ALONG WYOMING BORDER.
OTHERWISE RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. STILL
QUITE A BIT OF SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SO STRATUS AND FOG
ALSO SLOW TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. STILL BELIEVE POTENTIAL EXISTS THUS
HAVE LEFT PATCHY FREEZING FOG THROUGHOUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS.
DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 070415
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
915 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER NORTHEAST IDAHO
AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DRIVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AREA
WEB CAMS SHOW NO EVIDENCE OF SNOWFALL EVEN IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. HAVE NUDGED POPS DOWN LEAVING
SLIVER OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DIRECTLY ALONG WYOMING BORDER.
OTHERWISE RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. STILL
QUITE A BIT OF SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SO STRATUS AND FOG
ALSO SLOW TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. STILL BELIEVE POTENTIAL EXISTS THUS
HAVE LEFT PATCHY FREEZING FOG THROUGHOUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS.
DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 070415
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
915 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOP WARMING OVER NORTHEAST IDAHO
AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DRIVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AREA
WEB CAMS SHOW NO EVIDENCE OF SNOWFALL EVEN IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. HAVE NUDGED POPS DOWN LEAVING
SLIVER OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DIRECTLY ALONG WYOMING BORDER.
OTHERWISE RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. STILL
QUITE A BIT OF SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SO STRATUS AND FOG
ALSO SLOW TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. STILL BELIEVE POTENTIAL EXISTS THUS
HAVE LEFT PATCHY FREEZING FOG THROUGHOUT MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS.
DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 062004
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
104 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE STATE. SO FAR...WE`VE
ONLY SEEN ANY REAL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER...WHICH MAY BE
PREVENTING THE WINDS FROM REALLY CRANKING UP THIS AFTERNOON
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. ON THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGES...AS WELL AS
PLACES WHERE GAP WINDS ARE INCREASING..WE ARE SEEING AT 25-35 MPH.
SOME PLACES MAY INDEED BE HIGHER BUT WE DON`T HAVE INSTRUMENTS TO
SEE IT. FOR TONIGHT...ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND PALISADES NORTHWARD. EVEN THOUGH
WE`VE DECREASED AMOUNTS AND CHANCES SOME...WE MAY STILL BE TOO
HIGH INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. IN ITS WAKE...WE ARE LOOKING
FOR SOME STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO FORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNAKE
PLAIN AND EVEN VALLEYS ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH WIND/CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST
OF THE MAGIC VALLEY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.

OTHERWISE...VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST TO
START OUT THE WEEK. DATA STILL SHOWS THAT THIS TYPE OF RIDGE IS
VERY RARE FOR WINTERTIME...MORE LIKE SOMETHING WE WOULD SEE IN THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER. THAT MEANS VERY STRONG INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP.
UNDER THE INVERSION...EXPECT SHORTER TEMPERATURE SWINGS ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF FOG AND STRATUS. THERE COULD BE SOME AFTERNOON HAZE IF
WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THAT
GOES BEFORE PUTTING THAT IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
20S AND 30S IN THOSE AREAS...PERHAPS PUSHING CLOSE TO 40 IF WE CAN
GET SUN BREAKS AND A QUICK BURST OF MIXING. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
THE PLACE TO BE IF YOU WANT WARM WEATHER. IT LOOKS LIKE 40S AND
EVEN 50S ABOVE THE INVERSION. THE FLIP SIDE OF THAT WILL BE A LOT
OF MELTING SNOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
ALONG WITH OTHER IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
KEYES

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL PERSIST THRU THURSDAY. INVERSION CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN NIGHTTIME LOW CLDS AND PATCHY FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MUCH WARMER TEMPS. THE
ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIP FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT AND COME MORE
IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN BRINGING A SPLIT FLOW UPPER TROF INTO THE
WEST. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE MTNS SAT AND SAT
NIGHT. DSH

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY TO RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT
FOR MOST OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.  EXPECT LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
CIGS AND FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT ON SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE REGION AND SETS UP A PERSISTENT
TEMPERATURE INVERSION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DSH

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE NEXT
WEEK...WE ARE EXPECTING THAT AIR QUALITY WILL WORSEN ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEYS WHERE LITTLE TO NO MIXING OCCURS. WHILE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF AIR
QUALITY RAPIDLY IMPROVES. THE PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT THE DIRTY AIR. KEYES


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 062004
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
104 PM MST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE STATE. SO FAR...WE`VE
ONLY SEEN ANY REAL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER...WHICH MAY BE
PREVENTING THE WINDS FROM REALLY CRANKING UP THIS AFTERNOON
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. ON THE HIGHER PEAKS AND RIDGES...AS WELL AS
PLACES WHERE GAP WINDS ARE INCREASING..WE ARE SEEING AT 25-35 MPH.
SOME PLACES MAY INDEED BE HIGHER BUT WE DON`T HAVE INSTRUMENTS TO
SEE IT. FOR TONIGHT...ANY LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND PALISADES NORTHWARD. EVEN THOUGH
WE`VE DECREASED AMOUNTS AND CHANCES SOME...WE MAY STILL BE TOO
HIGH INCLUDING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. IN ITS WAKE...WE ARE LOOKING
FOR SOME STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG TO FORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE SNAKE
PLAIN AND EVEN VALLEYS ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH WIND/CLOUD COVER TO KEEP IT FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST
OF THE MAGIC VALLEY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.

OTHERWISE...VERY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST TO
START OUT THE WEEK. DATA STILL SHOWS THAT THIS TYPE OF RIDGE IS
VERY RARE FOR WINTERTIME...MORE LIKE SOMETHING WE WOULD SEE IN THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER. THAT MEANS VERY STRONG INVERSIONS WILL DEVELOP.
UNDER THE INVERSION...EXPECT SHORTER TEMPERATURE SWINGS ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF FOG AND STRATUS. THERE COULD BE SOME AFTERNOON HAZE IF
WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE STRATUS BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THAT
GOES BEFORE PUTTING THAT IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
20S AND 30S IN THOSE AREAS...PERHAPS PUSHING CLOSE TO 40 IF WE CAN
GET SUN BREAKS AND A QUICK BURST OF MIXING. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
THE PLACE TO BE IF YOU WANT WARM WEATHER. IT LOOKS LIKE 40S AND
EVEN 50S ABOVE THE INVERSION. THE FLIP SIDE OF THAT WILL BE A LOT
OF MELTING SNOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES
ALONG WITH OTHER IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
KEYES

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL PERSIST THRU THURSDAY. INVERSION CONDITIONS
WILL RESULT IN NIGHTTIME LOW CLDS AND PATCHY FOG IN THE
VALLEYS...WHILE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE MUCH WARMER TEMPS. THE
ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON PRECIP FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT AND COME MORE
IN LINE WITH THE GFS IN BRINGING A SPLIT FLOW UPPER TROF INTO THE
WEST. MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW IN THE MTNS SAT AND SAT
NIGHT. DSH

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG LIKELY TO RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT
FOR MOST OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.  EXPECT LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT.
CIGS AND FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT ON SUNDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN OVER THE REGION AND SETS UP A PERSISTENT
TEMPERATURE INVERSION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DSH

&&

.AIR STAGNATION...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE NEXT
WEEK...WE ARE EXPECTING THAT AIR QUALITY WILL WORSEN ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEYS WHERE LITTLE TO NO MIXING OCCURS. WHILE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY MODERATE LATE IN THE WEEK...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF AIR
QUALITY RAPIDLY IMPROVES. THE PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK MAY NOT BE
ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SCOUR OUT THE DIRTY AIR. KEYES


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





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