000
FXUS65 KPIH 190900
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
300 AM MDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...ACTIVE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND PACNW. WV SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN
IDAHO WITH WEAK CONVECTION OCCURRING THIS MORNING IN THE UPPER
SNAKE PLAIN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. A SECOND STRONGER SHORTWAVE
SLIDING INTO WESTERN IDAHO THIS MORNING PROGGED TO REACH THE
REGION LATER TODAY. AIR MASS AGAIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE SO CONTINUED
HIGH CHANCE SHOWERS MOST LOCATIONS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH FLOW ALOFT
TURNING NORTHERLY AHEAD OF BUILDING RIDGE. BOTH GFS AND NAM LINGER
SOME WEAK CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS INTO MONDAY BUT
OVERALL TREND IS DRIER. RIDGE AXIS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY BUT GFS
HOLDING ON TO POTENTIAL FOR WEAK CONVECTION ALONG NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA BORDER. THUS KEPT WEAK COLLABORATION POPS ALONG THE
FRINGES OF THE REGION.
MUCH DEEPER UPPER LOW SETTLES INTO THE PACNW FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
CENTER OF THE LOW CIRCULATING OVER OREGON/WASHINGTON WITH MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. THAT
SAID...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN SOMEWHAT SKIMPY WITH QPF FIELDS
OVER EASTERN IDAHO AS LOW REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
ECMWF SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN THE GFS...AND ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMO THROUGH THAT TIME. BY
FRIDAY...BOTH MODELS BEGIN TO OPEN THE LOW AND LIFT IT NORTHEAST
ENDING IN SOUTHERN ALBERTA BY SATURDAY MORNING. GFS DROPS A
SECONDARY TROUGH ALONG THE COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER IDAHO
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A FLATTER AND
SLIGHTLY WETTER FLOW. MADE LITTLE CHANGE FROM PERSISTENCE FOR DAYS
7 TO 8. DMH
&&
.AVIATION...NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE AND EXISTING STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT KIDA
AND KPIH. THIS AFTERNOON ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND MVFR CEILINGS. WINDS MAY GUST A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
WELL AS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. PRESTON
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY
ACROSS ALL DISTRICTS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS WITH LIGHTER WINDS, WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
BUT OUR AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM AND DRY SECTOR EXPECT THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS MAY SEE ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY. PRESTON
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KPIH 190303
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
905 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A QUICK UPDATE THIS
EVENING TO EXPIRE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH SOME MINOR TWEEKS TO
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TONIGHT GIVEN CLEARING SKIES TO WEST. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING BROUGHT WET
WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...UPPER SNAKE PLAIN AND
EASTERN HIGHLANDS TODAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE LOW. A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AMERICAN FALLS
RESERVOIR INTO THE EVENING HOURS BECAUSE OF THE WINDS. EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS ON
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL ON SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE 70S ON MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST. VALLE
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH
GRADUAL WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALSO THE MODELS ARE
CONTINUING THEIR TREND OF BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF BRINGS
THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OVER THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON
BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA. THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES
TO DROP THE LOW DOWN JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WYATT
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS ARE JUST ENDING FOR KIDA. LOOK FOR LINGERING
IFR/MVFR CIGS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. EXPECT
VICINITY SHOWERS FOR KPIH AND KIDA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS FOR KSUN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
TOMORROW LOOK FOR VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING FOR ALL TAF
SITES AS AN ADDITIONALLY DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WYATT
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KPIH 181956
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
156 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST WYOMING
BROUGHT WET WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...UPPER
SNAKE PLAIN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS TODAY. GUSTY WINDS ARE OCCURRING
BEHIND THE LOW. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR INTO THE EVENING HOURS BECAUSE OF THE
WINDS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO
TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN HIGHLANDS ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL ON
SUNDAY...BUT SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE IN THE FORECAST.
VALLE
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH
GRADUAL WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALSO THE MODELS ARE
CONTINUING THEIR TREND OF BRINGING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF BRINGS
THE LOW A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OVER THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON
BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA. THE GFS MODEL CONTINUES
TO DROP THE LOW DOWN JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE WEEKEND.
WYATT
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS ARE JUST ENDING FOR KIDA. LOOK FOR LINGERING
IFR/MVFR CIGS UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. EXPECT
VICINITY SHOWERS FOR KPIH AND KIDA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. LOOK FOR
VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS FOR KSUN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
TOMORROW LOOK FOR VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE MORNING FOR ALL TAF
SITES AS AN ADDITIONALLY DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WYATT
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KPIH 181536
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
936 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO ISSUE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE AMERICAN
FALLS RESERVOIR. OBSERVATIONS THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE SHOWN
WIND SPEEDS NEAR 20 MPH. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN NEAR THIS SPEED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS WELL. STILL LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
VALLE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER OVER
NORTHWEST UTAH THIS MORNING...WITH LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST CORNER OF EASTERN IDAHO PER RADAR
IMAGERY. NEXT CIRCULATION OF INTEREST IN NORTHEAST OREGON WITH
SMALLER AND WEAKER AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
MODELS SWING TROUGH NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WITH NEGATIVE TILT.
AIRMASS BECOMES WEAKLY UNSTABLE BY 18Z OVER MOST OF THE REGION SO
HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH POP GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER INTO THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN IDAHO REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW WITH NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE ALREADY
ALONG THE OREGON COAST THIS MORNING PROGGED TO REACH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MODELS NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT ON BEST LOCATION
FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY THUS BROADBRUSHED LIGHT
CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT SNAKE PLAIN. TROUGH DEEPENS INTO CLOSED
LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BY MONDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE PACNW.
RIDGE SHORTLIVED IN THE AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITH NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH REACHING THE COAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF AGREE ON DEVELOPMENT OF THIS NEXT LARGE LOW OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THOUGH GFS KEEPS THE
CENTER OF THE LOW SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF. INTERESTINGLY
BOTH MODELS ALSO MAINTAIN A LARGE DRY SLOT CENTERED OVER EASTERN
IDAHO WITH PRECIP PUSHED MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE DEPTH
OF THE LOW...OPTED TO MAINTAIN WEAK POPS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEK. DMH
AVIATION...RAIN AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM PIH TO IDA AND
AREAS EASTWARD TODAY. MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE VFR FOR REST OF THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN. PRESTON
FIRE WEATHER...NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER TODAY WITH WETTING RAINS AS AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
UNSTABLE AIR OVER ALL THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS EXITING
SYSTEM GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND SHOT OF ENERGY WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY
WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED ON MON AND TUE AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE NW. A DEEP
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PAC NW BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS KEEP OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. PRESTON
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KPIH 180911
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
311 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...SAT IMAGERY SHOWS COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH SWINGING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER OVER
NORTHWEST UTAH THIS MORNING...WITH LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST CORNER OF EASTERN IDAHO PER RADAR
IMAGERY. NEXT CIRCULATION OF INTEREST IN NORTHEAST OREGON WITH
SMALLER AND WEAKER AREA OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
MODELS SWING TROUGH NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WITH NEGATIVE TILT.
AIRMASS BECOMES WEAKLY UNSTABLE BY 18Z OVER MOST OF THE REGION SO
HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH POP GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER INTO THE AFTERNOON. EASTERN IDAHO REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW WITH NEXT STRONGER SHORTWAVE ALREADY
ALONG THE OREGON COAST THIS MORNING PROGGED TO REACH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MODELS NOT QUITE IN AGREEMENT ON BEST LOCATION
FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY THUS BROADBRUSHED LIGHT
CHANCE POPS WITH SLIGHT SNAKE PLAIN. TROUGH DEEPENS INTO CLOSED
LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BY MONDAY WITH ONLY LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE PACNW.
RIDGE SHORTLIVED IN THE AMPLIFIED BUT PROGRESSIVE FLOW WITH NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH REACHING THE COAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF AGREE ON DEVELOPMENT OF THIS NEXT LARGE LOW OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THOUGH GFS KEEPS THE
CENTER OF THE LOW SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH THAN THE ECMWF. INTERESTINGLY
BOTH MODELS ALSO MAINTAIN A LARGE DRY SLOT CENTERED OVER EASTERN
IDAHO WITH PRECIP PUSHED MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE DEPTH
OF THE LOW...OPTED TO MAINTAIN WEAK POPS MOST AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEK. DMH
&&
.AVIATION...RAIN AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM PIH TO IDA AND
AREAS EASTWARD TODAY. MVFR POSSIBLE NEAR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE VFR FOR REST OF THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN. PRESTON
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER TODAY WITH WETTING RAINS AS AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
UNSTABLE AIR OVER ALL THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THIS EXITING
SYSTEM GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND SHOT OF ENERGY WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY
WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED ON MON AND TUE AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE NW. A DEEP
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PAC NW BY WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS KEEP OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. PRESTON
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KPIH 180231
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
835 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING.
RECENT REGION RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOING A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT VORT-FEATURE LIFTING NNE ACROSS NRN UTAH WITH A BROAD
AREA OF ATTENDING PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANYING THE WAVE. THE 00Z NAM
SUGGESTS THAT THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE SE HIGHLANDS
THIS EVENING WITH ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVIY REMAINING OVER THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THUS HAVE PUSHED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL HIGHER
ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS AND BACKED OFF ON PRECIP ELSEWHERE GIVEN
DECREASING RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
HUSTON
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON...WESTERN OREGON AND CALIFORNIA WITH A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND
OF SHOWERS FROM HOLBROOK TO DRIGGS MAINLY IMPACTING I-15 FROM THE
UTAH BORDER TO INKOM. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING MOST OF
I-84 FROM THE UTAH BORDER TO THE I-84/I-86 JUNCTION. LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST TOMORROW. EXPECT
GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THE
LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI...UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. EXPECT BREEZY TO MODERATE WINDS ON SATURDAY
PARTICULARLY FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR. CURRENTLY MODELS SHOW
WIND SPEEDS ON THE LOWER END OF THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD. ON SUNDAY
MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS ON SUNDAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 7000FT DURING THE EVENINGS AND
BE AROUND 8000 FT DURING THE DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT AROUND 3
TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CURRENT SNOW MELT LOOK FOR
INCREASED FLOWS FOR STREAMS AND RIVERS ACROSS OUR AREA. SWIFT
FLOWS WILL POSE A THREAT TO THOSE VENTURING NEAR WATER EDGES OR
FALLING IN. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION. WYATT
.LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXITING SYSTEM DURING THE DAY
MONDAY ENABLES UPPER RIDGING TO WORK INTO THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS OF
WARMING. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE ONLY SPOILER TO A MOSTLY DRY
COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WORKS INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES RAMPING UP TO NEAR OR SIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUNCHES THROUGH EAST IDAHO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LARGE UPPER LOW WORKS INTO WASHINGTON STATE WEDNESDAY WITH A SHARP
PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO EAST IDAHO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND IF THE TIMING PANS OUT IT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS THEN SETS THE STAGE FOR A COOLER AND BLUSTERY
END OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. DITTMANN
&&
.AVIATION...RAIN IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SPREAD NORTH TO IMPACT TAF SITES BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THIS EVE AS
WELL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP
TO IFR AS HEAVIER AREAS OF RAIN MOVE THROUGH. DITTMANN
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IDAHO TODAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY. SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED ON MON AND TUE AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE NW. A DEEP
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PAC NW BY WED...BRINGING RAIN
AND COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HEDGES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KPIH 172029
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
229 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
WESTERN WASHINGTON...WESTERN OREGON AND CALIFORNIA WITH A MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND
OF SHOWERS FROM HOLBROOK TO DRIGGS MAINLY IMPACTING I-15 FROM THE
UTAH BORDER TO INKOM. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING MOST OF
I-84 FROM THE UTAH BORDER TO THE I-84/I-86 JUNCTION. LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER OUR HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST TOMORROW. EXPECT
GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS MAINLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THE
LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI...UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. EXPECT BREEZY TO MODERATE WINDS ON SATURDAY
PARTICULARLY FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED FOR THE AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR. CURRENTLY MODELS SHOW
WIND SPEEDS ON THE LOWER END OF THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD. ON SUNDAY
MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS ON SUNDAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 7000FT DURING THE EVENINGS AND
BE AROUND 8000 FT DURING THE DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT AROUND 3
TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOK FOR
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CURRENT SNOW MELT LOOK FOR
INCREASED FLOWS FOR STREAMS AND RIVERS ACROSS OUR AREA. SWIFT
FLOWS WILL POSE A THREAT TO THOSE VENTURING NEAR WATER EDGES OR
FALLING IN. PLEASE SEE OUR HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION. WYATT
.LONG TERM... MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXITING SYSTEM DURING THE DAY
MONDAY ENABLES UPPER RIDGING TO WORK INTO THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS OF
WARMING. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE ONLY SPOILER TO A MOSTLY DRY
COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WORKS INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES RAMPING UP TO NEAR OR SIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUNCHES THROUGH EAST IDAHO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LARGE UPPER LOW WORKS INTO WASHINGTON STATE WEDNESDAY WITH A SHARP
PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO EAST IDAHO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND IF THE TIMING PANS OUT IT COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS THEN SETS THE STAGE FOR A COOLER AND BLUSTERY
END OF THE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS. DITTMANN
&&
.AVIATION...RAIN IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SPREAD NORTH TO IMPACT TAF SITES BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THIS EVE AS
WELL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP
TO IFR AS HEAVIER AREAS OF RAIN MOVE THROUGH. DITTMANN
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IDAHO TODAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY. SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED ON MON AND TUE AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE NW. A DEEP
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PAC NW BY WED...BRINGING RAIN
AND COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
HEDGES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KPIH 170907
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
307 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
UPPER TROF CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST THIS MORNING INTO EASTERN
OREGON WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO.
A BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM CHALLIS AND STANLEY SOUTHEAST
TOWARD MALTA AT 3 AM. HAVE HIGH POPS TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS
THE TROF PUSHES EAST SATURDAY EXPECT MOST PRECIPITATION TO BE NORTH
OF A IDAHO FALLS TO SUN VALLEY LINE BUT KEPT IN CHANCES OF SHOWERS
EVERYWHERE. ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWEST SUNDAY FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND VERY COOL TEMPERATURES UNDER THE LOW.
EXPECT SUNDAY TO BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN WIND SATURDAY AS WELL
WITH SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING AND COULD SEE 15 TO 20
MPH IN THE SNAKE PLAIN.
GK
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER TROF PUSHES EAST MONDAY AND SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF WEST TO
EAST AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN. ANOTHER UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN BUT BOTH KEEP IT MAINLY
WEST OF IDAHO AS WELL AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION. COULD BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND KEPT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAIRLY LOW AND MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. HAVE
TEMPERATURES WILL ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
LONG TERM AS STRENGTH OF LOW WILL AFFECT PLACEMENT THAT FAR OUT
AND COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. FOR NOW GOING WITH
WARMER AND DRY SOLUTION AS CIRCULATION STAYS WELL WEST INTO NEXT
FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS AN
UPPER TROF MOVES THROUGH. ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND
EVE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DROP TO
IFR THIS MORNING IN RAIN. HEDGES
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IDAHO TODAY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PAC NW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY. SHOWERY CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED ON MON AND TUE AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE NW. A DEEP
UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PAC NW BY WED...BRINGING RAIN
AND COOLER TEMPS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HEDGES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KPIH 161936
AFDPIH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
136 PM MDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SPLIT FLOW WILL BE CROSSING
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS KEEPS SOUTHEAST IDAHO IN MOIST UNSTABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION .1 TO .2 INCH SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH TRIES TO CLEAR THE
FORECAST AREA ABOUT NOON ON SATURDAY BUT THIS IS FURTHER
COMPLICATED BY ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN
BRANCH OF THE SPLIT DROPPING INTO IDAHO BY SATURDAY EVENING.
MULTIPLE MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO AND EVEN HINT AT WRAP
AROUND CIRCULATION DEVELOPING THAT MAINTAINS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. INSTABILITY IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
QUALIFY FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR. RS
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BEHIND AN EXITING SYSTEM MONDAY
AND TUESDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
TROUGHING AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO THE AREA
WILL BRING LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. LOOK
FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BECOMING NEAR
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WYATT
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT VICINITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WINDS FOR ALL TAF SITES.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ON STATION FOR ALL SITES LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY TO MID TOMORROW MORNING. DURING PERIOD OF SHOWERS...CIGS/VIS
WILL LIKELY BECOME MVFR/IFR BEFORE COMING VFR BY MID TO LATE
TOMORROW MORNING. WYATT
&&
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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