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000
FXUS65 KPIH 291029
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
329 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT CURRENT
WEB CAMS ACROSS THE AREA...MOST OF THE DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED TO LOW
CEILINGS OR AREAS WITH 3 TO 5 MILES OF VISIBILITY. ONLY A FEW AREAS
LIKE RIRIE AND ANTELOPE FLATS STILL HAVE DENSE FOG. AS A
RESULT...HAVE LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE. LOOK FOR FOG
FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL BUT FOG WILL NOT BE AS WIDE SPREAD. A
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING BUT LOOK FOR
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE UTAH LINE.
A WAVE WILL MOVE OVER MONTANA SATURDAY BRINGING BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW...MAINLY FOR THE
EXTREME NORTHERN AREA OF THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. WYATT

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS INDICATE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN A BIT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND HAVE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. RIDGE REBUILDS TO WEST AND REDUCED POPS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION. SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. GK

&&

.AVIATION...HEIGHT OF STRATUS HAS LIFTED TO MVFR CATEGORIES AT
BYI...PIH AND IDA WHILE LOW IFR MOVED INTO SUN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
NORTHWEST WINDS SUBSIDED THERE. DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH HIGH
UNCERTAINTY ON LEVELS OF CLOUDS AND INTENSITY OF FOG. SUN WILL
DEPEND ON WIND AS IF NORTHWEST WIND RETURNS IFR WILL CLEAR OUT
BUT COULD MOVE BACK THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHEAST WIND. EXPECT AT
LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT BYI...PIH AND IDA TODAY AND COULD SEE A
RETURN TO IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WHERE IT HAS LIFTED.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 291029
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
329 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT CURRENT
WEB CAMS ACROSS THE AREA...MOST OF THE DENSE FOG HAS LIFTED TO LOW
CEILINGS OR AREAS WITH 3 TO 5 MILES OF VISIBILITY. ONLY A FEW AREAS
LIKE RIRIE AND ANTELOPE FLATS STILL HAVE DENSE FOG. AS A
RESULT...HAVE LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXPIRE. LOOK FOR FOG
FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL BUT FOG WILL NOT BE AS WIDE SPREAD. A
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING BUT LOOK FOR
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE UTAH LINE.
A WAVE WILL MOVE OVER MONTANA SATURDAY BRINGING BREEZY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW...MAINLY FOR THE
EXTREME NORTHERN AREA OF THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. WYATT

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS INDICATE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN A BIT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND HAVE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. RIDGE REBUILDS TO WEST AND REDUCED POPS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION. SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. GK

&&

.AVIATION...HEIGHT OF STRATUS HAS LIFTED TO MVFR CATEGORIES AT
BYI...PIH AND IDA WHILE LOW IFR MOVED INTO SUN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
NORTHWEST WINDS SUBSIDED THERE. DIFFICULT FORECAST WITH HIGH
UNCERTAINTY ON LEVELS OF CLOUDS AND INTENSITY OF FOG. SUN WILL
DEPEND ON WIND AS IF NORTHWEST WIND RETURNS IFR WILL CLEAR OUT
BUT COULD MOVE BACK THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHEAST WIND. EXPECT AT
LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT BYI...PIH AND IDA TODAY AND COULD SEE A
RETURN TO IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WHERE IT HAS LIFTED.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 282058
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
158 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS SHOWING LAST NIGHTS STORM SHEARING RAPIDLY EAST INTO
NEBRASKA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE ERN HIGHLANDS AND
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING FROM SUN VALLEY EAST TO THE WYOMING
BORDER. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN OVER THE SNAKE RIVER
BASIN TONIGHT...BUT THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW THICK WILL THE FOG GET.
ANTICIPATING AREAS OF DENSE FOG FROM POCATELLO TO IDAHO FALLS
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY STARTING AT 8 PM
MDT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE ONLY BUGABOO HERE
IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY INHIBIT THE
FORMATION OF DENSE FOG. A SECOND STORM LIFTING NE TOWARD SRN
CALIFORNIA WAS ALSO VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES INTO SRN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND THEN DRIFTS SSE INTO BAJA/GULF
OF CALIFORNIA SATURDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
FEW CLOUDS LIFTING INTO THE SRN BORDER REGIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. AND
FINALLY...A THIRD SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WEST COAST
RIDGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND DIG SE THROUGH MONTANA SATURDAY APPEARS
TO REMAIN NE OF THE REGION WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SUGGESTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
IT MAY PROVE A BIT TRICKIER FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE THE
INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH
A BREAKDOWN/WEAKENING OF A WESTERN U.S. RIDGE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE MODELS ARE STILL WAVERING ON HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL
OCCUR...WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION AND HOW FAR
SOUTH INTO EASTERN IDAHO WE WILL SEE IT. THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
AREN`T OFFERING TOO MUCH HELP WHEN IT COMES TO FINDING A POSSIBLE
TREND TO LATCH ON TO. AT TIMES THEY LEAN TOWARD MORE RIDGING AND AT
OTHER TIMES DURING THE PERIOD...LESS RIDGING WHEN COMPARED TO THE
NORMAL FORECAST INFORMATION WE LOOK AT AND USE. BECAUSE OF THIS...WE
ARE NOT MAKING ANY SWEEPING CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WE ARE LOOKING
AT THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW COMING IN LATER SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING ALMOST NON-STOP INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK. WE ARE ALSO
KEEPING WITH THE THEME OF MUCH HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH A VERY LOW TO NO CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS OVERALL. KEYES
&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN
IDAHO TODAY AFTER THE RAIN AND SNOW THAT`S FALLEN DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. THAT SAID...WE HAVE SEEN SOME CLEAR SPOTS ACROSS THE AREA. IN
TERMS OF AIRPORTS AFFECTED...WEST WINDS HAVE PUSHED THE DRY AIR INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MAGIC VALLEY ESPECIALLY AROUND KBYI. WHAT CLEARING
AND RETURN TO VFR WE`VE SEEN SHOULD GO AWAY TONIGHT AS WINDS
DECREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOG/STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR WEATHER TO RETURN
TO THE AIRPORT STARTING AROUND 2-3Z AND ESPECIALLY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THE FOG HAS ROLLED INTO KSUN THIS AFTERNOON ALREADY. THE AIRPORT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW MINIMUMS UNTIL WE SEE A NORTHWEST WIND
LATER THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SMALLER CHANCE THOUGH THAT WE COULD
SEE THE FOG MOVE AND OUT AT TIMES UNTIL WE SEE THE OVERALL SWITCH TO
THAT WIND DIRECTION...BUT WE ARE THINKING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
FORECAST WILL PAN OUT. KPIH AND KIDA REMAIN SOCKED IN. IT IS LIKELY
THAT BOTH WILL NOT SEE ANY REAL IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR/LIFR WEATHER
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. KPIH WILL BE CLOSE TO THE CLEARING LINE
BUT WILL LIKELY END UP ON THE CLOUDY/FOGGY SIDE OF IT. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT KBYI AND KPIH AS
SOME WIND KICKS UP AND WOULD ELIMINATE THE FOG AND BREAK UP SOME OF
THE STRATUS. HOWEVER...THINGS LOOK LESS OPTIMISTIC AT KIDA. WE
SHOULD SEE FOG DISSIPATE BUT LOW CEILINGS REMAIN...HOWEVER WE ARE
NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THAT. KSUN WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE ANY
FOG/STRATUS REMAINS TO THE WOOD RIVER VALLEY...WHICH WOULD BE DRAWN
INTO THE AREA WITH THE DAYTIME WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR IDZ019-020-021 FROM 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
THROUGH 11 AM MST THURSDAY.
&&

$$












000
FXUS65 KPIH 282058
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
158 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS SHOWING LAST NIGHTS STORM SHEARING RAPIDLY EAST INTO
NEBRASKA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE ERN HIGHLANDS AND
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTENDING FROM SUN VALLEY EAST TO THE WYOMING
BORDER. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL REMAIN OVER THE SNAKE RIVER
BASIN TONIGHT...BUT THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW THICK WILL THE FOG GET.
ANTICIPATING AREAS OF DENSE FOG FROM POCATELLO TO IDAHO FALLS
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY STARTING AT 8 PM
MDT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE ONLY BUGABOO HERE
IS THAT THE PRESENCE OF STRATUS/LOW CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY INHIBIT THE
FORMATION OF DENSE FOG. A SECOND STORM LIFTING NE TOWARD SRN
CALIFORNIA WAS ALSO VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES INTO SRN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY AND THEN DRIFTS SSE INTO BAJA/GULF
OF CALIFORNIA SATURDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
FEW CLOUDS LIFTING INTO THE SRN BORDER REGIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. AND
FINALLY...A THIRD SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO TOP THE WEST COAST
RIDGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND DIG SE THROUGH MONTANA SATURDAY APPEARS
TO REMAIN NE OF THE REGION WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SUGGESTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
IT MAY PROVE A BIT TRICKIER FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS WHERE THE
INVERSION ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH
A BREAKDOWN/WEAKENING OF A WESTERN U.S. RIDGE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE MODELS ARE STILL WAVERING ON HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL
OCCUR...WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION AND HOW FAR
SOUTH INTO EASTERN IDAHO WE WILL SEE IT. THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
AREN`T OFFERING TOO MUCH HELP WHEN IT COMES TO FINDING A POSSIBLE
TREND TO LATCH ON TO. AT TIMES THEY LEAN TOWARD MORE RIDGING AND AT
OTHER TIMES DURING THE PERIOD...LESS RIDGING WHEN COMPARED TO THE
NORMAL FORECAST INFORMATION WE LOOK AT AND USE. BECAUSE OF THIS...WE
ARE NOT MAKING ANY SWEEPING CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WE ARE LOOKING
AT THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW COMING IN LATER SUNDAY AND
CONTINUING ALMOST NON-STOP INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK. WE ARE ALSO
KEEPING WITH THE THEME OF MUCH HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WITH A VERY LOW TO NO CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS OVERALL. KEYES
&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS EASTERN
IDAHO TODAY AFTER THE RAIN AND SNOW THAT`S FALLEN DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS. THAT SAID...WE HAVE SEEN SOME CLEAR SPOTS ACROSS THE AREA. IN
TERMS OF AIRPORTS AFFECTED...WEST WINDS HAVE PUSHED THE DRY AIR INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MAGIC VALLEY ESPECIALLY AROUND KBYI. WHAT CLEARING
AND RETURN TO VFR WE`VE SEEN SHOULD GO AWAY TONIGHT AS WINDS
DECREASE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOG/STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR WEATHER TO RETURN
TO THE AIRPORT STARTING AROUND 2-3Z AND ESPECIALLY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
THE FOG HAS ROLLED INTO KSUN THIS AFTERNOON ALREADY. THE AIRPORT
WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW MINIMUMS UNTIL WE SEE A NORTHWEST WIND
LATER THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SMALLER CHANCE THOUGH THAT WE COULD
SEE THE FOG MOVE AND OUT AT TIMES UNTIL WE SEE THE OVERALL SWITCH TO
THAT WIND DIRECTION...BUT WE ARE THINKING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC
FORECAST WILL PAN OUT. KPIH AND KIDA REMAIN SOCKED IN. IT IS LIKELY
THAT BOTH WILL NOT SEE ANY REAL IMPROVEMENT FROM IFR/LIFR WEATHER
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. KPIH WILL BE CLOSE TO THE CLEARING LINE
BUT WILL LIKELY END UP ON THE CLOUDY/FOGGY SIDE OF IT. BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT KBYI AND KPIH AS
SOME WIND KICKS UP AND WOULD ELIMINATE THE FOG AND BREAK UP SOME OF
THE STRATUS. HOWEVER...THINGS LOOK LESS OPTIMISTIC AT KIDA. WE
SHOULD SEE FOG DISSIPATE BUT LOW CEILINGS REMAIN...HOWEVER WE ARE
NOT FULLY CONFIDENT IN THAT. KSUN WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW CLOSE ANY
FOG/STRATUS REMAINS TO THE WOOD RIVER VALLEY...WHICH WOULD BE DRAWN
INTO THE AREA WITH THE DAYTIME WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY FOR IDZ019-020-021 FROM 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
THROUGH 11 AM MST THURSDAY.
&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KPIH 281250
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
550 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...PATCHY...DENSE FOG IS ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THIS MORNING. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE FOG. MOST OF THE AREA IS ABOVE
FREEZING BUT PORTIONS OF THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN IS FREEZING
BRINGING SLICK FREEZING FOG. PLEASE USE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING.
WYATT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. THE SNOW
LEVEL IS CURRENTLY AROUND 6500 FEET. EXPECT THIS LEVEL TO DROP
PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN WILL LIKELY SEE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ONE TO THREE INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING.
HAVE BACK OFF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS BOTH MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEM MOSTLY THROUGH OUR EASTERN BORDERS AT THAT
POINT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BACKS IN LATER TODAY. WITH AMPLE
SURFACE MOISTURE AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING...EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG
THURSDAY MORNING IN LOW LYING AREAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TO OUR SOUTH. AT THIS
POINT...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AGAINST
THE UTAH BORDER. WYATT

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH SOME SYSTEMS WORKING OFF THE
PACIFIC WEAKENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME PRECIPITATION SUNDAY ON IN THE EXTENDED
WITH MONDAY LOOKING LIKE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
GK

AVIATION...EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND
EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE AT TAF SITES THROUGH
TONIGHT.  RAIN MAY PERSIST THIS MORNING AT IDA AND PIH BEFORE ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 281022
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
322 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. THE SNOW
LEVEL IS CURRENTLY AROUND 6500 FEET. EXPECT THIS LEVEL TO DROP
PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN WILL LIKELY SEE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ONE TO THREE INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING.
HAVE BACK OFF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS BOTH MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEM MOSTLY THROUGH OUR EASTERN BORDERS AT THAT
POINT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BACKS IN LATER TODAY. WITH AMPLE
SURFACE MOISTURE AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING...EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG
THURSDAY MORNING IN LOW LYING AREAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TO OUR SOUTH. AT THIS
POINT...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AGAINST
THE UTAH BORDER. WYATT

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH SOME SYSTEMS WORKING OFF THE
PACIFIC WEAKENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME PRECIPITATION SUNDAY ON IN THE EXTENDED
WITH MONDAY LOOKING LIKE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND
EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE AT TAF SITES THROUGH
TONIGHT.  RAIN MAY PERSIST THIS MORNING AT IDA AND PIH BEFORE ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 281022
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
322 AM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. THE SNOW
LEVEL IS CURRENTLY AROUND 6500 FEET. EXPECT THIS LEVEL TO DROP
PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AREAS. THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN WILL LIKELY SEE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX EARLY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT ONE TO THREE INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING.
HAVE BACK OFF PRECIPITATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS BOTH MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE SYSTEM MOSTLY THROUGH OUR EASTERN BORDERS AT THAT
POINT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD BACKS IN LATER TODAY. WITH AMPLE
SURFACE MOISTURE AND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING...EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG
THURSDAY MORNING IN LOW LYING AREAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY TO OUR SOUTH. AT THIS
POINT...ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AGAINST
THE UTAH BORDER. WYATT

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH SOME SYSTEMS WORKING OFF THE
PACIFIC WEAKENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME PRECIPITATION SUNDAY ON IN THE EXTENDED
WITH MONDAY LOOKING LIKE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEK.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY AND
EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE AT TAF SITES THROUGH
TONIGHT.  RAIN MAY PERSIST THIS MORNING AT IDA AND PIH BEFORE ENDING
THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 272051
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
151 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY WAS
SHOWING THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PRECIPITATION BANDS SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS IN ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH NEVADA. NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS SUGGEST THAT VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD A GOOD PORTION OF SE IDAHO
TONIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHEARING EAST INTO
WYOMING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO 3 TO 6
INCHES IN THE ERN HIGHLANDS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO COVER THE SUB-ADVISORY EVENT. ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN...PARTICULARLY INL AND THE MUD LAKE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
COMPLICATE SNOW ACCUMULATION ESTIMATES WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OR
LESS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE STORM
SHIFTS SE OF THE REGION WHILE A SECOND DISTURBANCE SWINGS INTO THE
SW STATES WITH ATTENDING CLOUD COVER SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVERAGE
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND/OR STRATUS IN THE VALLEYS. THE
GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND THUS HAVE DECREASED THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WEEKEND FORECAST
SHOULD START OUT MOSTLY DRY. A SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST COULD CLIP
THE DIVIDE AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR MONIDA PASS AND ISLAND
PARK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. WE WOULD LIKELY SEE
INVERSION CONDITIONS HOLDING AS WELL. BEYOND THAT...THERE IS SOME
TRENDING TOWARD INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN...SNOW AND LIKELY SOME
WIND. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION FALL.
THE GFS CONTINUES...AT LEAST FOR TODAY...SHOWING STRONGER RIDGING
ACROSS THE WEST FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT REALLY DOESN`T
BRING ANYTHING INTO EASTERN IDAHO UNTIL MONDAY AND KEEPS EVERYTHING
ACROSS THE NORTH INTO NEXT WEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF IS
BASICALLY SHOWING WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS DUE TO ITS IDEA OF
ANY RIDGING TO REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. IT IS VERY WET ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE FIRST SIGNS OF PRECIPITATION IN HERE AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW INTO EASTERN IDAHO LATER
SUNDAY...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE HIGHWAY
CORRIDOR FROM POCATELLO TO IDAHO FALLS. OTHER AREAS WOULD SEE LESSER
CHANCES AND IN SOME CASES NO CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW IN THIS FORECAST.
KEYES
&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND SNOW IS ALREADY CREEPING INTO THE MOUNTAINS
NEAR THE UTAH BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
SPREADING NORTH INTO THIS EVENING. WE SHOULD SEE RAIN GETTING TO
KBYI AND KPIH BY 23Z (4PM) IF IT HASN`T ALREADY ARRIVED BY NOW. KIDA
AND KSUN WILL BE ABOUT AN HOUR LATER. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR/MVFR UNTIL LATER TODAY. WE SHOULD SEE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWERING TO IFR. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF ANY SITE WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH AT KSUN AND KIDA THAT
WE INCLUDED A MIX IN THE FORECAST. WE WILL SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVING
SLOWLY TOMORROW FROM WEST TO EAST. KIDA AND KPIH SHOULD VCSH AT THE
VERY LEAST BY AFTERNOON AS KSUN AND KBYI WILL BEGIN IMPROVING
EARLIER IN THE MORNING. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS65 KPIH 272051
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
151 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY WAS
SHOWING THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF PRECIPITATION BANDS SPREADING NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS IN ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE LIFTING
NORTH THROUGH NEVADA. NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS SUGGEST THAT VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD A GOOD PORTION OF SE IDAHO
TONIGHT...CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHEARING EAST INTO
WYOMING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO 3 TO 6
INCHES IN THE ERN HIGHLANDS. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO COVER THE SUB-ADVISORY EVENT. ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN...PARTICULARLY INL AND THE MUD LAKE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN WILL
COMPLICATE SNOW ACCUMULATION ESTIMATES WITH GENERALLY AN INCH OR
LESS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE STORM
SHIFTS SE OF THE REGION WHILE A SECOND DISTURBANCE SWINGS INTO THE
SW STATES WITH ATTENDING CLOUD COVER SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN. FOR NOW...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVERAGE
TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND/OR STRATUS IN THE VALLEYS. THE
GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND THUS HAVE DECREASED THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WEEKEND FORECAST
SHOULD START OUT MOSTLY DRY. A SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHEAST COULD CLIP
THE DIVIDE AND PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR MONIDA PASS AND ISLAND
PARK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. WE WOULD LIKELY SEE
INVERSION CONDITIONS HOLDING AS WELL. BEYOND THAT...THERE IS SOME
TRENDING TOWARD INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN...SNOW AND LIKELY SOME
WIND. THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH WE WILL SEE PRECIPITATION FALL.
THE GFS CONTINUES...AT LEAST FOR TODAY...SHOWING STRONGER RIDGING
ACROSS THE WEST FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. IT REALLY DOESN`T
BRING ANYTHING INTO EASTERN IDAHO UNTIL MONDAY AND KEEPS EVERYTHING
ACROSS THE NORTH INTO NEXT WEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF IS
BASICALLY SHOWING WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS DUE TO ITS IDEA OF
ANY RIDGING TO REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. IT IS VERY WET ESPECIALLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH THE FIRST SIGNS OF PRECIPITATION IN HERE AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST OF BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW INTO EASTERN IDAHO LATER
SUNDAY...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE HIGHWAY
CORRIDOR FROM POCATELLO TO IDAHO FALLS. OTHER AREAS WOULD SEE LESSER
CHANCES AND IN SOME CASES NO CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW IN THIS FORECAST.
KEYES
&&

.AVIATION...RAIN AND SNOW IS ALREADY CREEPING INTO THE MOUNTAINS
NEAR THE UTAH BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP
SPREADING NORTH INTO THIS EVENING. WE SHOULD SEE RAIN GETTING TO
KBYI AND KPIH BY 23Z (4PM) IF IT HASN`T ALREADY ARRIVED BY NOW. KIDA
AND KSUN WILL BE ABOUT AN HOUR LATER. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR/MVFR UNTIL LATER TODAY. WE SHOULD SEE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
LOWERING TO IFR. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF ANY SITE WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOW ENOUGH AT KSUN AND KIDA THAT
WE INCLUDED A MIX IN THE FORECAST. WE WILL SEE CONDITIONS IMPROVING
SLOWLY TOMORROW FROM WEST TO EAST. KIDA AND KPIH SHOULD VCSH AT THE
VERY LEAST BY AFTERNOON AS KSUN AND KBYI WILL BEGIN IMPROVING
EARLIER IN THE MORNING. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KPIH 271006
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
306 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SAT IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW
LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
NORTHWARD INTO NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
IS MUCH SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...BUT WE ARE SEEING IT ON
WEBCAMS AROUND ISLAND PARK AND SOME MIST ON POCATELLO OBS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN JUST AFTER 18Z OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SNAKE PLAIN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
STRONG INVERSION CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50
DEGREES AT 3000 FT AGL PER 00Z KSLC AND KBOI SOUNDINGS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE FREEZING LEVEL SLOWLY DROPPING THIS AFTERNOON SO
MOST AREAS SHOULD START OFF AS RAIN...THEN PROGRESS TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX BY LATE TONIGHT THOUGH THE LOWER VALLEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
RAIN. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN
THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST. WE ARE LOOKING AT ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES
IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES
IN THE UPPER VALLEYS. HINSBERGER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A SECOND DISTURBANCE CROSSES
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS OF
IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 5000 FEET BUT PROBABLY ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
DRIEST OF THE DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MODEL BRINGS A QUICK
DISTURBANCE THROUGH MONIDA PASS TO ISLAND PARK...BUT ALL THE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FURTHER NORTH IN MONTANA. AFTER
THAT...DIFFICULT TO SAY IF WE ARE HEADED INTO A PATTERN CHANGE. THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 160W SEEMS TO LOOSE
AMPLITUDE WHICH PERMITS A MORE WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE OREGON AND
WASHINGTON COAST FOR A FEW DAYS. THAT MEANS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR IDAHO. THE GFS TRIES TO BRING SURGES OF MOISTURE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST IDAHO MONDAY AND ANOTHER ON TUESDAY. NOTHING LOOKS LIKE A
BIG STORM SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. RS
&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG AROUND KPIH THIS MORNING AND THAT COULD BE
SHORT LIVED. THE NAM12 OFFERS A THREAT OF SOUTH WINDS AND A SHARP
JUMP TO NEAR 40F FOR KPIH. BEST TIMING USING THE WRF IN BUFKIT
FAVORS SOUTH WINDS BREAKING THE INVERSION ABOUT 17Z. SCT001 BEING
REPORTED AT REXBURG...SO KIDA MAY NOT BE RISK FREE. BY 28/00Z
CLOUDS INCREASE RAPIDLY WITH THE APPROACHING LOW CROSSING
CALIFORNIA. LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KSUN BY 28/01Z...SNOW LEVELS
ABOUT 7100 FT OVER KBYI SLOPING TO 6200 FEET AT KSUN FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION AT THE AIR FIELD. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO 5000-5400 FEET
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. RS
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 271006
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
306 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SAT IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW
LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE
NORTHWARD INTO NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING
IS MUCH SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...BUT WE ARE SEEING IT ON
WEBCAMS AROUND ISLAND PARK AND SOME MIST ON POCATELLO OBS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN JUST AFTER 18Z OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS...THEN SPREAD INTO THE SNAKE PLAIN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
STRONG INVERSION CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE 50
DEGREES AT 3000 FT AGL PER 00Z KSLC AND KBOI SOUNDINGS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE FREEZING LEVEL SLOWLY DROPPING THIS AFTERNOON SO
MOST AREAS SHOULD START OFF AS RAIN...THEN PROGRESS TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX BY LATE TONIGHT THOUGH THE LOWER VALLEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
RAIN. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN
THE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST. WE ARE LOOKING AT ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES
IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND 1 TO 2 INCHES
IN THE UPPER VALLEYS. HINSBERGER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A SECOND DISTURBANCE CROSSES
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA FRIDAY WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS OF
IDAHO. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 5000 FEET BUT PROBABLY ONLY AN INCH
OR TWO ACCUMULATION IN THE MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
DRIEST OF THE DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MODEL BRINGS A QUICK
DISTURBANCE THROUGH MONIDA PASS TO ISLAND PARK...BUT ALL THE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FURTHER NORTH IN MONTANA. AFTER
THAT...DIFFICULT TO SAY IF WE ARE HEADED INTO A PATTERN CHANGE. THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 160W SEEMS TO LOOSE
AMPLITUDE WHICH PERMITS A MORE WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE OREGON AND
WASHINGTON COAST FOR A FEW DAYS. THAT MEANS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR IDAHO. THE GFS TRIES TO BRING SURGES OF MOISTURE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST IDAHO MONDAY AND ANOTHER ON TUESDAY. NOTHING LOOKS LIKE A
BIG STORM SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. RS
&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY FOG AROUND KPIH THIS MORNING AND THAT COULD BE
SHORT LIVED. THE NAM12 OFFERS A THREAT OF SOUTH WINDS AND A SHARP
JUMP TO NEAR 40F FOR KPIH. BEST TIMING USING THE WRF IN BUFKIT
FAVORS SOUTH WINDS BREAKING THE INVERSION ABOUT 17Z. SCT001 BEING
REPORTED AT REXBURG...SO KIDA MAY NOT BE RISK FREE. BY 28/00Z
CLOUDS INCREASE RAPIDLY WITH THE APPROACHING LOW CROSSING
CALIFORNIA. LIFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KSUN BY 28/01Z...SNOW LEVELS
ABOUT 7100 FT OVER KBYI SLOPING TO 6200 FEET AT KSUN FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION AT THE AIR FIELD. SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO 5000-5400 FEET
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. RS
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 262044
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
145 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ERN GREAT
BASIN WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LIFTING NORTH ALONG THE
BAJA/SRN CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MODELS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA THAT THE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS SRN
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND THROUGH NEVADA TUESDAY WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADING INTO SE IDAHO
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE APPEARS TO BE
SNOW LEVELS AS WARM TEMPERATURES SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF
THE LOW WHILE LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER STUBBORN
INVERSIONS. SUSPECT THAT AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
MAY BE REALIZED ACROSS THE INL/MUD LAKE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH CAN BE HANDLED WITH ADVISORIES IF IT
DEVELOPS. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHEAR
EAST INTO WYOMING WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES ANTICIPATED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 5
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...THUS NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. A WEAK SECONDARY DISTURBANCE LIFTS NE THROUGH CNTRL NEVADA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE BEAR LAKE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR
NOW...THE IMPACT LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS UTAH WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SE IDAHO. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAKER SPLIT-FLOW
SYSTEM WILL WORK ACROSS THE REGION AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
MODELS ARE SPLIT...NO PUN INTENDED...ON HOW MUCH OF A SPLIT OCCURS.
THE GFS IS MORE CONNECTED TO THE NORTHERN STREAM VS THE ECMWF. WE
SHOULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ALONG/SOUTH OF THE SNAKE
RIVER...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS ISLAND PARK BUT THE REST OF EASTERN
IDAHO WILL LIKELY STAY DRY. AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS THE WEST. IDAHO WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE
RIDGE AND SUBJECT TO THE POTENTIAL OF THE FLOW BEING MORE WESTERLY
AT TIMES. THE MODELS ARE STILL WANTING TO WAVER A BIT FROM RUN TO
RUN...AND THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS AREN`T SHOWING MUCH TO HELP TREND
THE FORECAST ONE WAY OR THE OTHER. BASED ON THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WE KEPT ANY RAIN AND SNOW CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THAT WE COULD SEE INVERSION
CONDITIONS...EVEN IF BRIEFLY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. KEYES
&&

.AVIATION...THE FOG IS A BIT SLOW TO DISSIPATE ALONG THE INTERSTATE
CORRIDOR AND SOME OTHER SPOTS AS OF NOON. BY DINNERTIME...MOST IF
NOT ALL OF IT WILL BE OUT OF HERE LEAVING US WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR WEATHER AT ALL TAF SITES. AS FOR TONIGHT...KSUN SHOULD REMAIN
VFR AS WELL AS KBYI. KIDA AND KPIH MIGHT BE A BIT MORE
TRICKY...ESPECIALLY THE LATTER AIRPORT. PREVIOUS TAFS AND THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS KIDA GOING BACK TO IFR/LIFR DUE TO FOG THIS EVENING.
SINCE THEY WILL SEE THE LEAST INFLUENCE FROM THE NEXT STORM ARRIVING
UNTIL LATER TUESDAY...WE WENT WITH THE MORE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST. IF
WE GET A BIT MORE WIND TONIGHT IN THE UPPER PLAIN...WE MAY END UP
WITH STRATUS INSTEAD OR POSSIBLY NOTHING AT ALL.  AT KPIH...THE
LATEST SHOWS WE COULD SEE FOG/STRATUS REDEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE WE SEE POSSIBLE SOUTHERLY GAP WINDS TAKING SHAPE. THIS WOULD
CLEAR OUT THE AIRPORT MOST LIKELY. WE ARE GOING WITH THAT SCENARIO
AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WINDS AREN`T STRONG ENOUGH
TO KEEP FOG OR LOW CLOUDS AWAY. CLOUDS GENERALLY INCREASE DURING THE
DAY. WE MAY SEE PRECIPITATION AND REDUCED CEILINGS AS EARLY AS 21Z
(2PM)...BUT IT APPEARS THINGS COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









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