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000
FXUS65 KPIH 010859
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
259 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN IDAHO THIS
MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER HAS SHIFTED INTO THE
PLAINS. WE WILL STILL DEAL WITH SHOWERS TODAY AS AN IMPULSE OF
ENERGY SLIDES DOWN INTO THE TROUGH AND COOL AIR ALOFT TO KEEP THINGS
JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHTER TODAY AS
THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS MUCH LOOSER. EXPECT TO SEE THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND BE REPLACED BY A STABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. CLEARING SKIES WILL HELP OVERNIGHT COOLING
TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRING TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
SNAKE PLAIN. THUS AM PUTTING OUT A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE VALLEY
ZONES. MODELS SUGGEST WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...LAST OF UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH EAST IDAHO
TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH AXIS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR UNDER PRECIP. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
OVERNIGHT UNDER INFLUENCE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE. DMH
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NOTE TO OUR CUSTOMERS...THE FIRE WEATHER PROGRAM
WILL BE REDUCED FROM TWO FORECASTS PER DAY TO ONE PLANNING FORECAST
ISSUED IN THE MORNING STARTING OCTOBER 1. LAST OF SHORTWAVES DROPS
THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SNAKE PLAIN AND EAST TODAY. NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND COASTAL STATES. SLOW DRYING/WARMING TREND
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. DMH
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
IDZ017-020-021.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 010859
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
259 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN IDAHO THIS
MORNING...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER HAS SHIFTED INTO THE
PLAINS. WE WILL STILL DEAL WITH SHOWERS TODAY AS AN IMPULSE OF
ENERGY SLIDES DOWN INTO THE TROUGH AND COOL AIR ALOFT TO KEEP THINGS
JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LOOK TO BE LIGHTER TODAY AS
THE SURFACE GRADIENT IS MUCH LOOSER. EXPECT TO SEE THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND BE REPLACED BY A STABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. CLEARING SKIES WILL HELP OVERNIGHT COOLING
TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRING TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE
SNAKE PLAIN. THUS AM PUTTING OUT A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE VALLEY
ZONES. MODELS SUGGEST WARMING TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...LAST OF UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH EAST IDAHO
TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY
ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH AXIS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR UNDER PRECIP. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
OVERNIGHT UNDER INFLUENCE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE. DMH
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NOTE TO OUR CUSTOMERS...THE FIRE WEATHER PROGRAM
WILL BE REDUCED FROM TWO FORECASTS PER DAY TO ONE PLANNING FORECAST
ISSUED IN THE MORNING STARTING OCTOBER 1. LAST OF SHORTWAVES DROPS
THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SNAKE PLAIN AND EAST TODAY. NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND COASTAL STATES. SLOW DRYING/WARMING TREND
EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. DMH
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
IDZ017-020-021.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 301930
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
130 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS EAST IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT A
CONVERGENCE EVENT TO WORK DOWN THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SECOND ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN TONIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND BATCH OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. ON
WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EAST IDAHO AND
PRODUCED CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY
ALONG THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES COULD BE COLD ENOUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR A
POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE SITUATION. HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP
SOME WHICH COULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED...PREVENTING
TEMPS FROM FALLING DRASTICALLY. MENTIONING PATCHY FROST FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.
EXPECT WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

QUIESCENT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS A BROAD RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
UNDER THIS REGIME.

AD

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND NO RETURN OF STRATUS OR FOG IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS DRIER AIRMASS...AIDED BY A BREEZY BOUNDARY LAYER.
THIS IS DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF STANDING WATER...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ZERO...JUST HIGHLY UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
WIND WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND RETURN TO GUSTY
CONDITIONS AGAIN WED AFTERNOON...FORTUNATELY WITH LITTLE CROSS-WIND
COMPONENT FOR THE MAJOR RUNWAY DIRECTIONS. MESSICK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NOTE TO OUR CUSTOMERS...THE FIRE WEATHER PROGRAM
WILL BE REDUCED FROM TWO FORECASTS PER DAY TO ONE PLANNING FORECAST
ISSUED IN THE MORNING STARTING OCTOBER 1. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD AND A SECOND WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT. BY WED MORNING...DRY
AND COLD AIR WILL HAVE REPLACED THE MOIST AIR MASS CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN IDAHO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE REPLACED THE LOW...AND
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY AND NEARLY CLOUD
FREE. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM UP...BUT EVEN VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY STAYING IN THE 20
TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. AFTER THE FRONTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LESS GUSTY ON WED AND THU...THEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE SEVEN DAY PERIOD.
MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 301930
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
130 PM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS EAST IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EXPECT A
CONVERGENCE EVENT TO WORK DOWN THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SECOND ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN TONIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND BATCH OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT...GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. ON
WEDNESDAY...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EAST IDAHO AND
PRODUCED CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY
ALONG THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. DRIER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES COULD BE COLD ENOUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR A
POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE SITUATION. HOWEVER WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY UP
SOME WHICH COULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED...PREVENTING
TEMPS FROM FALLING DRASTICALLY. MENTIONING PATCHY FROST FOR
NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES.
EXPECT WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

QUIESCENT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS A BROAD RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. AS A RESULT...DRY CONDITIONS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
UNDER THIS REGIME.

AD

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE AND NO RETURN OF STRATUS OR FOG IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS DRIER AIRMASS...AIDED BY A BREEZY BOUNDARY LAYER.
THIS IS DESPITE QUITE A BIT OF STANDING WATER...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ZERO...JUST HIGHLY UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
WIND WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND RETURN TO GUSTY
CONDITIONS AGAIN WED AFTERNOON...FORTUNATELY WITH LITTLE CROSS-WIND
COMPONENT FOR THE MAJOR RUNWAY DIRECTIONS. MESSICK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NOTE TO OUR CUSTOMERS...THE FIRE WEATHER PROGRAM
WILL BE REDUCED FROM TWO FORECASTS PER DAY TO ONE PLANNING FORECAST
ISSUED IN THE MORNING STARTING OCTOBER 1. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BE SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD AND A SECOND WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BRINGING SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT. BY WED MORNING...DRY
AND COLD AIR WILL HAVE REPLACED THE MOIST AIR MASS CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN IDAHO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE REPLACED THE LOW...AND
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY AND NEARLY CLOUD
FREE. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM UP...BUT EVEN VALLEY TEMPERATURES WILL
ONLY BE IN THE LOWER 70S WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY STAYING IN THE 20
TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. AFTER THE FRONTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BE LESS GUSTY ON WED AND THU...THEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE SEVEN DAY PERIOD.
MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KPIH 300850
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
250 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW CLEARLY SEEN ON WV
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET IS DRIVING
INTO OREGON AND SHOULD HELP SUPPORT A STRONGER SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO
AROUND NOON TODAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MEAN STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT INTENSIFIES AND MOVES EAST TODAY.
MODELS FOCUS THE QPF FIELD MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT MAY
SEE SOME RAIN IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AS WELL. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND MAY TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE TROUGH FINALLY EXITS
THE REGION. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SET UP AFTER
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL HEADING
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.  HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE. SOME CEILING IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER
FRONT BUT WILL ALSO SEE INCREASED WINDS ESPECIALLY THROUGH SNAKE
PLAIN. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY BETWEEN KTWF/KPIH 18Z-03Z. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND FRONT AS WELL. SFC HIGH
TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM WEST OVERNIGHT BUT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BEHIND MAIN TROUGH/FRONT COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP VCSH FOR KPIH/KIDA THROUGH 12Z.
DMH
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH IDAHO EARLY TODAY WITH
AMPLIFIED SFC GRADIENT AND INCREASED WINDS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HUMIDITIES REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR CONCERN ESPECIALLY IN
LIGHT OF RECENT DAYS RAINFALL. SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT MAINLY
EASTERN HIGHLANDS EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REMAINDER OF WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS. DMH
&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KPIH 300850
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
250 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PAC NW CLEARLY SEEN ON WV
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. SPEED MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET IS DRIVING
INTO OREGON AND SHOULD HELP SUPPORT A STRONGER SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO
AROUND NOON TODAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MEAN STRONG GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS OF AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS THE FRONT INTENSIFIES AND MOVES EAST TODAY.
MODELS FOCUS THE QPF FIELD MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT MAY
SEE SOME RAIN IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AS WELL. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DROP
IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND MAY TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE TROUGH FINALLY EXITS
THE REGION. A DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SET UP AFTER
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL HEADING
INTO THE COMING WEEKEND.  HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION ASSOCIATED
WITH AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE. SOME CEILING IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER
FRONT BUT WILL ALSO SEE INCREASED WINDS ESPECIALLY THROUGH SNAKE
PLAIN. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY BETWEEN KTWF/KPIH 18Z-03Z. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND FRONT AS WELL. SFC HIGH
TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM WEST OVERNIGHT BUT SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
BEHIND MAIN TROUGH/FRONT COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING MAINLY HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP VCSH FOR KPIH/KIDA THROUGH 12Z.
DMH
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH IDAHO EARLY TODAY WITH
AMPLIFIED SFC GRADIENT AND INCREASED WINDS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. HUMIDITIES REMAIN TOO HIGH FOR CONCERN ESPECIALLY IN
LIGHT OF RECENT DAYS RAINFALL. SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVERNIGHT MAINLY
EASTERN HIGHLANDS EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REMAINDER OF WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS. DMH
&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 291954
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS
SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER SE IDAHO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE THE NEXT UPSTREAM PAC TROUGH ADVANCED INTO THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THE MODELS WERE SHOWING A FAIRLY SIMILAR
DEPICTION WITH ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS SE IDAHO
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW EJECTED NE INTO MONTANA/WYOMING. THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A CONCOMITANT INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY FAVORING THE NRN
AND ERN HIGHLANDS...MAYBE EVEN TRIGGERING A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
ERN HIGHLANDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT. IN ADDITION...BOTH MODELS WERE HINTING AT
A CONVERGENCE/PRECIPITATION EVENT EXITING THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY EVENING WHICH SPREADS SW DOWN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. NUDGED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY A LITTLE HIGHER TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR THIS LOW PROBABILITY EVENT AND WE WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK
TUESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SW STATES AS THE STORM TRACK LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER...REMAINING THERE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CURRENTLY DRY AND MILD FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD HAS BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BY
MORNING THE CIGS WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL VFR FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
KBYI. KSUN WILL HAVE SERIOUS DIFFICULTIES OVERNIGHT BUT NORTHWEST
WIND SHOULD DRY OUT THE MOISTURE AND RAISE THE CIG PRIOR TO THE
AIRDROME OPENING IN THE MORNING. ON TUE AFTERNOON A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL BRING MUCH STRONGER WIND TO THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED IN
AREAL COVERAGE TUE. MESSICK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MORE SHOWERS IN STORE FOR MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TUE NIGHT...SO HUMIDITY IS STAYING VERY HIGH WITH EXCELLENT
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ON TUE AFTERNOON A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AND BRING MODERATE TO STRONG WIND AND A
DRYING TREND TO THE FORECAST. BY THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND PROVIDE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND...BUT ONLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL...AND LITTLE TO NO FIRE SPREAD THREAT
THROUGH SUN. MESSICK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KPIH 291954
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS
SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER SE IDAHO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE THE NEXT UPSTREAM PAC TROUGH ADVANCED INTO THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THE MODELS WERE SHOWING A FAIRLY SIMILAR
DEPICTION WITH ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS SE IDAHO
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER
LOW EJECTED NE INTO MONTANA/WYOMING. THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
A CONCOMITANT INCREASE IN DIURNAL SHOWER ACTIVITY FAVORING THE NRN
AND ERN HIGHLANDS...MAYBE EVEN TRIGGERING A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
ERN HIGHLANDS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT. IN ADDITION...BOTH MODELS WERE HINTING AT
A CONVERGENCE/PRECIPITATION EVENT EXITING THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY EVENING WHICH SPREADS SW DOWN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY
OVERNIGHT. NUDGED THE PRECIP PROBABILITY A LITTLE HIGHER TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR THIS LOW PROBABILITY EVENT AND WE WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK
TUESDAY. THE REMAINS OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER CONDITIONS WORKING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SW STATES AS THE STORM TRACK LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER...REMAINING THERE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED THE CURRENTLY DRY AND MILD FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVERHEAD HAS BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BY
MORNING THE CIGS WILL LIKELY BE MARGINAL VFR FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
KBYI. KSUN WILL HAVE SERIOUS DIFFICULTIES OVERNIGHT BUT NORTHWEST
WIND SHOULD DRY OUT THE MOISTURE AND RAISE THE CIG PRIOR TO THE
AIRDROME OPENING IN THE MORNING. ON TUE AFTERNOON A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL BRING MUCH STRONGER WIND TO THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIMITED IN
AREAL COVERAGE TUE. MESSICK
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MORE SHOWERS IN STORE FOR MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TUE NIGHT...SO HUMIDITY IS STAYING VERY HIGH WITH EXCELLENT
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ON TUE AFTERNOON A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AND BRING MODERATE TO STRONG WIND AND A
DRYING TREND TO THE FORECAST. BY THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND PROVIDE A WARMING AND DRYING TREND...BUT ONLY
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL...AND LITTLE TO NO FIRE SPREAD THREAT
THROUGH SUN. MESSICK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS65 KPIH 290831
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL BE IMPACTED BY A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND A LOW SITUATED OVER THE UT/NV BORDER
THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS SEEN APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BC
COAST. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT OF UTAH TODAY AND
FILLING AS THE SECOND SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. AS THE LOW LIFTS
OUT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO
WILL BE DRIVEN INTO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WE KEEP SOME
INSTABILITY ON ACCOUNT OF THE LOW. THE UPPER TROUGH IN BC WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME MORE WET WEATHER TO SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND EVEN
SOME STRONG WINDS AS A SURFACE FRONT TRIES TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE
SNAKE PLAIN.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRIER WEATHER. THE JET WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY ALOFT WITH THE
STORM TRACK STAYING JUST TO OUR NORTH. DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST IDAHO TODAY. SOME INSTABILITY
PRESENT MAINLY SNAKE PLAIN AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH THE LOWER CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION. UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL ALSO SEE BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO MIX OF MVFR/IFR ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z FOR LOW
LYING AREAS. WILL TREND TERMINALS TOWARD LOWER HEIGHTS AT
KIDA/KPIH/KBYI OVERNIGHT BUT KEEP ABOVE IFR AT THIS TIME. DMH
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP UPPER LOW EJECTS ACROSS EAST IDAHO TODAY AS
OPEN TROUGH. DEEP MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE SO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUE TODAY. SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE COLD FRONTS. BEST CHANCE FOR
WINDS OCCURS ON TUESDAY. DRIER/WARMER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY
AND BEYOND WITH UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER EAST IDAHO. DMH
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 290831
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
231 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...SOUTHERN IDAHO WILL BE IMPACTED BY A SERIES OF UPPER
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND A LOW SITUATED OVER THE UT/NV BORDER
THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS SEEN APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BC
COAST. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT OF UTAH TODAY AND
FILLING AS THE SECOND SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. AS THE LOW LIFTS
OUT...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN IDAHO
WILL BE DRIVEN INTO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WE KEEP SOME
INSTABILITY ON ACCOUNT OF THE LOW. THE UPPER TROUGH IN BC WILL
LIKELY BRING SOME MORE WET WEATHER TO SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND EVEN
SOME STRONG WINDS AS A SURFACE FRONT TRIES TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE
SNAKE PLAIN.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRIER WEATHER. THE JET WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY ALOFT WITH THE
STORM TRACK STAYING JUST TO OUR NORTH. DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST IDAHO TODAY. SOME INSTABILITY
PRESENT MAINLY SNAKE PLAIN AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD AGAIN TODAY WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH THE LOWER CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH PRECIPITATION. UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT BUT
WILL ALSO SEE BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO MIX OF MVFR/IFR ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z FOR LOW
LYING AREAS. WILL TREND TERMINALS TOWARD LOWER HEIGHTS AT
KIDA/KPIH/KBYI OVERNIGHT BUT KEEP ABOVE IFR AT THIS TIME. DMH
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP UPPER LOW EJECTS ACROSS EAST IDAHO TODAY AS
OPEN TROUGH. DEEP MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE SO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
CONTINUE TODAY. SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE COLD FRONTS. BEST CHANCE FOR
WINDS OCCURS ON TUESDAY. DRIER/WARMER CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THURSDAY
AND BEYOND WITH UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER EAST IDAHO. DMH
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 290323
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
923 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...RAIN SHIELD OVER THE MAGIC VALLEY IS SHIFTING FURTHER
WEST SO ALLOWED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS TO EXPIRE OVER THE BEAVER
CREEK BURN AREA. 3 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE UP TO 0.75 INCHES IN
SOME AREAS. SATELLITE SHOWS A BRIEF DRY SECTOR MOVING OVER EASTERN
IDAHO AT 9 PM WHILE ANOTHER BATCH OF STORM ENERGY IS MOVING NORTH
TOWARDS FROM UTAH. THIS ENERGY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. OTHERWISE THE RAINFALL
WILL KEEP TO A MINIMUM UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT IN SOME OF THE LOWER VALLEYS.  PRESTON




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 147 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO
EAST IDAHO FROM UTAH AND WYOMING. MODELS SHOW THIS ROUND OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE SNAKE PLAIN AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANYWHERE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL TIME...DEPENDING UPON LOCATION TO
THE CENTER OF THE BAND. ON MONDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER EAST
IDAHO. THE MODELS HAVE CHANGED NOTICEABLY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WRAP AROUND RAIN. GFS AND NAM BOTH KEEP THE WIDESPREAD WRAP
AROUND RAIN ACROSS WESTERN IDAHO ON MONDAY. EXPECT MAINLY
CONVECTIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EAST IDAHO ON MONDAY...MOST
NOTABLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A POSSIBLE FROST/FREEZE SITUATION REMAINS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE
SNAKE PLAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS
WITH 70S LIKELY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

VALLE

AVIATION...A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE.  MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS IN HEAVIER PRECIP. DSH

FIRE WEATHER...A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO SPAWN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...AND
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUE WITH SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DSH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 290323
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
923 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...RAIN SHIELD OVER THE MAGIC VALLEY IS SHIFTING FURTHER
WEST SO ALLOWED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS TO EXPIRE OVER THE BEAVER
CREEK BURN AREA. 3 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE UP TO 0.75 INCHES IN
SOME AREAS. SATELLITE SHOWS A BRIEF DRY SECTOR MOVING OVER EASTERN
IDAHO AT 9 PM WHILE ANOTHER BATCH OF STORM ENERGY IS MOVING NORTH
TOWARDS FROM UTAH. THIS ENERGY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. OTHERWISE THE RAINFALL
WILL KEEP TO A MINIMUM UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT IN SOME OF THE LOWER VALLEYS.  PRESTON




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 147 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO
EAST IDAHO FROM UTAH AND WYOMING. MODELS SHOW THIS ROUND OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE SNAKE PLAIN AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANYWHERE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL TIME...DEPENDING UPON LOCATION TO
THE CENTER OF THE BAND. ON MONDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER EAST
IDAHO. THE MODELS HAVE CHANGED NOTICEABLY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WRAP AROUND RAIN. GFS AND NAM BOTH KEEP THE WIDESPREAD WRAP
AROUND RAIN ACROSS WESTERN IDAHO ON MONDAY. EXPECT MAINLY
CONVECTIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EAST IDAHO ON MONDAY...MOST
NOTABLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A POSSIBLE FROST/FREEZE SITUATION REMAINS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE
SNAKE PLAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS
WITH 70S LIKELY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

VALLE

AVIATION...A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE.  MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS IN HEAVIER PRECIP. DSH

FIRE WEATHER...A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO SPAWN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...AND
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUE WITH SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DSH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 281947
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
147 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO
EAST IDAHO FROM UTAH AND WYOMING. MODELS SHOW THIS ROUND OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE SNAKE PLAIN AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANYWHERE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL TIME...DEPENDING UPON LOCATION TO
THE CENTER OF THE BAND. ON MONDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER EAST
IDAHO. THE MODELS HAVE CHANGED NOTICEABLY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WRAP AROUND RAIN. GFS AND NAM BOTH KEEP THE WIDESPREAD WRAP
AROUND RAIN ACROSS WESTERN IDAHO ON MONDAY. EXPECT MAINLY
CONVECTIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EAST IDAHO ON MONDAY...MOST
NOTABLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A POSSIBLE FROST/FREEZE SITUATION REMAINS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE
SNAKE PLAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS
WITH 70S LIKELY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE.  MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS IN HEAVIER PRECIP. DSH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO SPAWN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...AND
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUE WITH SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DSH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KPIH 281947
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
147 PM MDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER CENTRAL
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO
EAST IDAHO FROM UTAH AND WYOMING. MODELS SHOW THIS ROUND OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE SNAKE PLAIN AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ANYWHERE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH OF RAIN COULD FALL TIME...DEPENDING UPON LOCATION TO
THE CENTER OF THE BAND. ON MONDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER EAST
IDAHO. THE MODELS HAVE CHANGED NOTICEABLY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WRAP AROUND RAIN. GFS AND NAM BOTH KEEP THE WIDESPREAD WRAP
AROUND RAIN ACROSS WESTERN IDAHO ON MONDAY. EXPECT MAINLY
CONVECTIVE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EAST IDAHO ON MONDAY...MOST
NOTABLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A POSSIBLE FROST/FREEZE SITUATION REMAINS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE
SNAKE PLAIN. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS
WITH 70S LIKELY BY NEXT WEEKEND.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
AND THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE.  MAINLY VFR CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS IN HEAVIER PRECIP. DSH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA WILL CONTINUE TO SPAWN
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND MOVE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...AND
PRECIPITATION DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUE WITH SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DSH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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