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000
FXUS65 KPIH 280427
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
927 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...LOW CENTER OVER OREGON SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH THIS
EVENING. MAIN MOISTURE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH LOW FOCUSED OVER
SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND NORTHERN NEVADA PER IR SAT IMAGERY AND RADAR.
CANT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
BUT BELIEVE FOCUS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO MAIN FEATURE. HAVE LOWERED
POPS MOST AREAS TONIGHT LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY WEST. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE MORE
CLEARING IN PLACE. HAVE LOWERED MINS SLIGHTLY IN A FEW AREAS IN
LINE WITH OBSERVATION TRENDS. DMH


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 280427
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
927 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...LOW CENTER OVER OREGON SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH THIS
EVENING. MAIN MOISTURE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH LOW FOCUSED OVER
SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND NORTHERN NEVADA PER IR SAT IMAGERY AND RADAR.
CANT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
BUT BELIEVE FOCUS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO MAIN FEATURE. HAVE LOWERED
POPS MOST AREAS TONIGHT LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY WEST. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE MORE
CLEARING IN PLACE. HAVE LOWERED MINS SLIGHTLY IN A FEW AREAS IN
LINE WITH OBSERVATION TRENDS. DMH


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 280427
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
927 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...LOW CENTER OVER OREGON SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH THIS
EVENING. MAIN MOISTURE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH LOW FOCUSED OVER
SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND NORTHERN NEVADA PER IR SAT IMAGERY AND RADAR.
CANT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
BUT BELIEVE FOCUS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO MAIN FEATURE. HAVE LOWERED
POPS MOST AREAS TONIGHT LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY WEST. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE MORE
CLEARING IN PLACE. HAVE LOWERED MINS SLIGHTLY IN A FEW AREAS IN
LINE WITH OBSERVATION TRENDS. DMH


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 280427
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
927 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...LOW CENTER OVER OREGON SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH THIS
EVENING. MAIN MOISTURE BAND ASSOCIATED WITH LOW FOCUSED OVER
SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND NORTHERN NEVADA PER IR SAT IMAGERY AND RADAR.
CANT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
BUT BELIEVE FOCUS WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO MAIN FEATURE. HAVE LOWERED
POPS MOST AREAS TONIGHT LEAVING SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY WEST. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE MORE
CLEARING IN PLACE. HAVE LOWERED MINS SLIGHTLY IN A FEW AREAS IN
LINE WITH OBSERVATION TRENDS. DMH


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 272114
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
214 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE
NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COAST LINE THIS AFTERNOON...FORECAST
BY MODELS TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO...WE HAVE LIMITED FORCING AND
MOISTURE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS..WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WILL BE
WATCHING THE BURLEY...MAGIC MOUNTAIN AND OAKLEY RESERVOIR AREA
LATER THIS EVENING FOR SIGNS OF PRECIPITATION BANDING DEVELOPING
IN THAT AREA AS A RESULT OF THE LOW MOVING SOUTH. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY THERE IS MORE OF A DEFORMATION AREA OVER THIS
AREA BETWEEN THE LOW IN CALIFORNIA AND THE TROUGH OVER CANADA.
PLUS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THROUGH BEAR LAKE AREA
BY THEN LEAVING DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY NEED TO
ADJUST AT LITTLE LOWER YET. NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
COULD BRING MORNING LOWS 5 TO 10 BELOW NEAR ISLAND PARK. TIMING OF
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CANADA AND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT DROPING TOWARDS YELLOWSTONE AREA LATE IN THE DAY LOOKS
A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. RS

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
ON WAVE DROPPING OUT OF BC AND INTO IDAHO MON NIGHT. MODELS APPEAR
TO HAVE A FAIRLY CONSISTENT HANDLING ON THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT OUT
OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TREND IN THE GFS IS PUSHING QPF FIELD
A BIT FURTHER EAST...FOCUSING MORE ON EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS. NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF SNOWFALL AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH GIVEN ITS TRAJECTORY. DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL THEN
PUSH INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE UPPER
SNAKE PLAIN FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WED MORNING...BUT COASTAL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD WED NIGHT AND BRING SOME QUICK
WARMING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS BACKING OFF ON
DROPPING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH INTO THE PAC NW FRIDAY MORNING AND IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER KPIH AND KIDA ARE MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE EAST. RADAR SHOWING MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING JUST TO
THE WEST OF KIDA SO COULD SEE IFR CIG/VIS THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS DIMINISH AND DRIER DOWN-VALLEY FLOW SETS UP. MODELS
INDICATING ACTIVITY COULD PICK UP OVER SW IDAHO AND MAY BRING
SHOWERS INTO KBYI IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 272114
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
214 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE
NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COAST LINE THIS AFTERNOON...FORECAST
BY MODELS TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO...WE HAVE LIMITED FORCING AND
MOISTURE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS..WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WILL BE
WATCHING THE BURLEY...MAGIC MOUNTAIN AND OAKLEY RESERVOIR AREA
LATER THIS EVENING FOR SIGNS OF PRECIPITATION BANDING DEVELOPING
IN THAT AREA AS A RESULT OF THE LOW MOVING SOUTH. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY THERE IS MORE OF A DEFORMATION AREA OVER THIS
AREA BETWEEN THE LOW IN CALIFORNIA AND THE TROUGH OVER CANADA.
PLUS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THROUGH BEAR LAKE AREA
BY THEN LEAVING DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY NEED TO
ADJUST AT LITTLE LOWER YET. NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
COULD BRING MORNING LOWS 5 TO 10 BELOW NEAR ISLAND PARK. TIMING OF
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CANADA AND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT DROPING TOWARDS YELLOWSTONE AREA LATE IN THE DAY LOOKS
A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. RS

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
ON WAVE DROPPING OUT OF BC AND INTO IDAHO MON NIGHT. MODELS APPEAR
TO HAVE A FAIRLY CONSISTENT HANDLING ON THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT OUT
OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TREND IN THE GFS IS PUSHING QPF FIELD
A BIT FURTHER EAST...FOCUSING MORE ON EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS. NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF SNOWFALL AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH GIVEN ITS TRAJECTORY. DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL THEN
PUSH INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE UPPER
SNAKE PLAIN FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WED MORNING...BUT COASTAL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD WED NIGHT AND BRING SOME QUICK
WARMING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS BACKING OFF ON
DROPPING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH INTO THE PAC NW FRIDAY MORNING AND IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER KPIH AND KIDA ARE MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE EAST. RADAR SHOWING MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING JUST TO
THE WEST OF KIDA SO COULD SEE IFR CIG/VIS THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS DIMINISH AND DRIER DOWN-VALLEY FLOW SETS UP. MODELS
INDICATING ACTIVITY COULD PICK UP OVER SW IDAHO AND MAY BRING
SHOWERS INTO KBYI IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 272114
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
214 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE
NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COAST LINE THIS AFTERNOON...FORECAST
BY MODELS TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO...WE HAVE LIMITED FORCING AND
MOISTURE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS..WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WILL BE
WATCHING THE BURLEY...MAGIC MOUNTAIN AND OAKLEY RESERVOIR AREA
LATER THIS EVENING FOR SIGNS OF PRECIPITATION BANDING DEVELOPING
IN THAT AREA AS A RESULT OF THE LOW MOVING SOUTH. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY THERE IS MORE OF A DEFORMATION AREA OVER THIS
AREA BETWEEN THE LOW IN CALIFORNIA AND THE TROUGH OVER CANADA.
PLUS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THROUGH BEAR LAKE AREA
BY THEN LEAVING DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY NEED TO
ADJUST AT LITTLE LOWER YET. NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
COULD BRING MORNING LOWS 5 TO 10 BELOW NEAR ISLAND PARK. TIMING OF
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CANADA AND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT DROPING TOWARDS YELLOWSTONE AREA LATE IN THE DAY LOOKS
A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. RS

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
ON WAVE DROPPING OUT OF BC AND INTO IDAHO MON NIGHT. MODELS APPEAR
TO HAVE A FAIRLY CONSISTENT HANDLING ON THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT OUT
OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TREND IN THE GFS IS PUSHING QPF FIELD
A BIT FURTHER EAST...FOCUSING MORE ON EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS. NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF SNOWFALL AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH GIVEN ITS TRAJECTORY. DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL THEN
PUSH INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE UPPER
SNAKE PLAIN FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WED MORNING...BUT COASTAL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD WED NIGHT AND BRING SOME QUICK
WARMING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS BACKING OFF ON
DROPPING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH INTO THE PAC NW FRIDAY MORNING AND IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER KPIH AND KIDA ARE MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE EAST. RADAR SHOWING MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING JUST TO
THE WEST OF KIDA SO COULD SEE IFR CIG/VIS THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS DIMINISH AND DRIER DOWN-VALLEY FLOW SETS UP. MODELS
INDICATING ACTIVITY COULD PICK UP OVER SW IDAHO AND MAY BRING
SHOWERS INTO KBYI IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 272114
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
214 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE
NEAR THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COAST LINE THIS AFTERNOON...FORECAST
BY MODELS TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO...WE HAVE LIMITED FORCING AND
MOISTURE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS..WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WILL BE
WATCHING THE BURLEY...MAGIC MOUNTAIN AND OAKLEY RESERVOIR AREA
LATER THIS EVENING FOR SIGNS OF PRECIPITATION BANDING DEVELOPING
IN THAT AREA AS A RESULT OF THE LOW MOVING SOUTH. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY THERE IS MORE OF A DEFORMATION AREA OVER THIS
AREA BETWEEN THE LOW IN CALIFORNIA AND THE TROUGH OVER CANADA.
PLUS THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THROUGH BEAR LAKE AREA
BY THEN LEAVING DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY NEED TO
ADJUST AT LITTLE LOWER YET. NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
COULD BRING MORNING LOWS 5 TO 10 BELOW NEAR ISLAND PARK. TIMING OF
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CANADA AND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT DROPING TOWARDS YELLOWSTONE AREA LATE IN THE DAY LOOKS
A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. RS

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
ON WAVE DROPPING OUT OF BC AND INTO IDAHO MON NIGHT. MODELS APPEAR
TO HAVE A FAIRLY CONSISTENT HANDLING ON THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT OUT
OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TREND IN THE GFS IS PUSHING QPF FIELD
A BIT FURTHER EAST...FOCUSING MORE ON EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS. NOT EXPECTING A GREAT DEAL OF SNOWFALL AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH GIVEN ITS TRAJECTORY. DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL THEN
PUSH INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE UPPER
SNAKE PLAIN FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS WED MORNING...BUT COASTAL RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD WED NIGHT AND BRING SOME QUICK
WARMING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE 12Z ECMWF IS BACKING OFF ON
DROPPING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH INTO THE PAC NW FRIDAY MORNING AND IS
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER KPIH AND KIDA ARE MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE EAST. RADAR SHOWING MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING JUST TO
THE WEST OF KIDA SO COULD SEE IFR CIG/VIS THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE...MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS DIMINISH AND DRIER DOWN-VALLEY FLOW SETS UP. MODELS
INDICATING ACTIVITY COULD PICK UP OVER SW IDAHO AND MAY BRING
SHOWERS INTO KBYI IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 271652
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
952 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...MINOR UPDATES THIS MORNING...MOSTLY SCALE BACK SNOW
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN TODAY TO GENERALLY
TRACE AMOUNTS. RS


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
TODAY. BEST SHOT WILL BE THIS MORNING MAINLY IN SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS
WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO BY NOON AND THEN
SOME DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES IN
HEATING. BIG AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED BUT AGAIN LOCALLY AN INCH OR TWO
IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SATURDAY UPPER LOW IN
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING DROPS SOUTH THROUGH OREGON WITH
MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYING WEST OF THE REGION. BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AGAIN FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS LOW CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTH. CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY AND EARLY
MARCH EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
GK

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY
EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM ARRIVING AS A FASTER MOVING
OPEN TROUGH AS OPPOSED TO THE CLOSED LOW ADVERTISED EARLIER. AS A
RESULT...DONT EXPECT THIS TO BE A MAJOR STORM. STILL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN COMMUNITIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR WITH IT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE FREEZING POINT FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING FRIDAY...BUT
HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION SINCE ALL GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A RIDGE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

VALLE

AVIATION...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH OREGON
TODAY. THIS WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT VFR CEILINGS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY EXCEPT IN AND AROUND SHOWERS WHERE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 271652
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
952 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...MINOR UPDATES THIS MORNING...MOSTLY SCALE BACK SNOW
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN TODAY TO GENERALLY
TRACE AMOUNTS. RS


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
TODAY. BEST SHOT WILL BE THIS MORNING MAINLY IN SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS
WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO BY NOON AND THEN
SOME DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES IN
HEATING. BIG AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED BUT AGAIN LOCALLY AN INCH OR TWO
IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SATURDAY UPPER LOW IN
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING DROPS SOUTH THROUGH OREGON WITH
MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYING WEST OF THE REGION. BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AGAIN FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS LOW CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTH. CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY AND EARLY
MARCH EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
GK

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY
EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM ARRIVING AS A FASTER MOVING
OPEN TROUGH AS OPPOSED TO THE CLOSED LOW ADVERTISED EARLIER. AS A
RESULT...DONT EXPECT THIS TO BE A MAJOR STORM. STILL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN COMMUNITIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR WITH IT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE FREEZING POINT FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING FRIDAY...BUT
HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION SINCE ALL GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A RIDGE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

VALLE

AVIATION...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH OREGON
TODAY. THIS WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT VFR CEILINGS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY EXCEPT IN AND AROUND SHOWERS WHERE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 271652
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
952 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...MINOR UPDATES THIS MORNING...MOSTLY SCALE BACK SNOW
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN TODAY TO GENERALLY
TRACE AMOUNTS. RS


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
TODAY. BEST SHOT WILL BE THIS MORNING MAINLY IN SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS
WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO BY NOON AND THEN
SOME DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES IN
HEATING. BIG AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED BUT AGAIN LOCALLY AN INCH OR TWO
IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SATURDAY UPPER LOW IN
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING DROPS SOUTH THROUGH OREGON WITH
MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYING WEST OF THE REGION. BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AGAIN FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS LOW CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTH. CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY AND EARLY
MARCH EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
GK

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY
EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM ARRIVING AS A FASTER MOVING
OPEN TROUGH AS OPPOSED TO THE CLOSED LOW ADVERTISED EARLIER. AS A
RESULT...DONT EXPECT THIS TO BE A MAJOR STORM. STILL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN COMMUNITIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR WITH IT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE FREEZING POINT FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING FRIDAY...BUT
HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION SINCE ALL GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A RIDGE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

VALLE

AVIATION...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH OREGON
TODAY. THIS WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT VFR CEILINGS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY EXCEPT IN AND AROUND SHOWERS WHERE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 271652
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
952 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...MINOR UPDATES THIS MORNING...MOSTLY SCALE BACK SNOW
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN TODAY TO GENERALLY
TRACE AMOUNTS. RS


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
TODAY. BEST SHOT WILL BE THIS MORNING MAINLY IN SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS
WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO BY NOON AND THEN
SOME DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES IN
HEATING. BIG AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED BUT AGAIN LOCALLY AN INCH OR TWO
IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SATURDAY UPPER LOW IN
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING DROPS SOUTH THROUGH OREGON WITH
MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYING WEST OF THE REGION. BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AGAIN FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS LOW CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTH. CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY AND EARLY
MARCH EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
GK

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY
EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM ARRIVING AS A FASTER MOVING
OPEN TROUGH AS OPPOSED TO THE CLOSED LOW ADVERTISED EARLIER. AS A
RESULT...DONT EXPECT THIS TO BE A MAJOR STORM. STILL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN COMMUNITIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR WITH IT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE FREEZING POINT FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING FRIDAY...BUT
HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION SINCE ALL GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A RIDGE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

VALLE

AVIATION...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH OREGON
TODAY. THIS WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT VFR CEILINGS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY EXCEPT IN AND AROUND SHOWERS WHERE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 271020
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
320 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
TODAY. BEST SHOT WILL BE THIS MORNING MAINLY IN SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS
WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO BY NOON AND THEN
SOME DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES IN
HEATING. BIG AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED BUT AGAIN LOCALLY AN INCH OR TWO
IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SATURDAY UPPER LOW IN
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING DROPS SOUTH THROUGH OREGON WITH
MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYING WEST OF THE REGION. BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AGAIN FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS LOW CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTH. CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY AND EARLY
MARCH EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
GK

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY
EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM ARRIVING AS A FASTER MOVING
OPEN TROUGH AS OPPOSED TO THE CLOSED LOW ADVERTISED EARLIER. AS A
RESULT...DONT EXPECT THIS TO BE A MAJOR STORM. STILL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN COMMUNITIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR WITH IT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE FREEZING POINT FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING FRIDAY...BUT
HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION SINCE ALL GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A RIDGE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH OREGON
TODAY. THIS WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT VFR CEILINGS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY EXCEPT IN AND AROUND SHOWERS WHERE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 271020
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
320 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TODAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING
TODAY. BEST SHOT WILL BE THIS MORNING MAINLY IN SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS
WHERE SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO BY NOON AND THEN
SOME DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES IN
HEATING. BIG AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED BUT AGAIN LOCALLY AN INCH OR TWO
IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SATURDAY UPPER LOW IN
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING DROPS SOUTH THROUGH OREGON WITH
MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYING WEST OF THE REGION. BUT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AGAIN FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS LOW CONTINUES TO DROP
SOUTH. CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY AND EARLY
MARCH EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
GK

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY
EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM ARRIVING AS A FASTER MOVING
OPEN TROUGH AS OPPOSED TO THE CLOSED LOW ADVERTISED EARLIER. AS A
RESULT...DONT EXPECT THIS TO BE A MAJOR STORM. STILL HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN COMMUNITIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR WITH IT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING
TO REACH THE FREEZING POINT FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUNDING TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING FRIDAY...BUT
HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION SINCE ALL GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A RIDGE OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH OREGON
TODAY. THIS WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT VFR CEILINGS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY EXCEPT IN AND AROUND SHOWERS WHERE TEMPORARY IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT TODAY.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 262054
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WAS SHOWING THE NEXT UPSTREAM PAC DISTURBANCE DIGGING SSE
ALONG THE CANADIAN COAST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD CLOSER
AGREEMENT IN DRIVING THE DISTURBANCE INTO WRN OREGON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALL THE WHILE MAINTAINING THE BULK OF THE PCPN IMPACTS
OVER OREGON AND NW NEVADA WITH SOME INTRUSION INTO THE CNTRL AND
SOUTH-CNTRL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. THE LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SSE FRIDAY
NIGHT SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN PCPN CORE REMAINING TO OUR SOUTHWEST.
IF THE LOW TREKS FURTHER EAST THAN THE CURRENT MODEL PROGS ARE
SUGGESTING THEN WE WOULD BE UNDERPLAYING THE PCPN POTENTIAL ACROSS
SE IDAHO IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...IF THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE
CURRENT TRACK OR TREND FURTHER WEST LIKE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SHOWING
THEN THE FORECAST MAY BE A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE. HAVE DECREASED THE
PCPN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NE HIGHLANDS FOR NOW WHILE MAINTAINING
FAIRLY HEALTHY PCPN PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE WRN-CNTRL MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTH-CNTRL HIGHLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LOW DRIFTS INTO AND DOWN
THE CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
OVERSPREADING SE IDAHO SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FOCUS NEXT WEEK IS
ON UPPER TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF BC MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE
COMING INTO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. GFS/ECMWF
DELIVER HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON
VALLEY FLOORS...SO ESTIMATED SNOW AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT 4 TO 7 INCHES
OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS...2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE SNAKE PLAIN. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THROUGH IDAHO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS SNOW TAPERS OFF...BUT COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WAY WITH LOWS DROPPING IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN IN THE WEST BY THURSDAY AND RIDGING
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD RESULTING IN DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER.
HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME VCSH AROUND KBYI. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. NAM MOS GUIDANCE FOR
KSUN DROPS CEILING 2000 TO 3000 FT DURING THIS PERIOD. HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KPIH 261010
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
310 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN IDAHO THE NEXT THREE DAYS. NOTHING LOOKS AS IF IT WILL
PROVIDE HEAVY SNOW BUT MAINLY SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT.
SYSTEM SATURDAY DROPS FURTHER SOUTH AND MODELS TRENDING TO DRY IT
OUT SOME BUT KEPT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH FRIDAY LIKELY WETTEST DAY. EXPECT COLDER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD GETTING COLDER EACH DAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MAJOR IMPACTS NOT EXPECTED BUT SOME
MOUNTAIN ROADS COULD OCCASIONALLY SEE SOME SNOW COVER INTO
SATURDAY.
GK

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ON SUNDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STILL RATHER EXTENSIVE AND AN ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WHERE MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE MID OR UPPER 30S. EXPECT A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON MONDAY
WITH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE DUE NORTH BUT HAS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR WITH IT. DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW THIS COULD BE
A LEGITIMATE SNOW MAKER FOR THE REGION. EXPECT MUCH COLDER TEMPS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STRUGGLING TO
GET BACK TO 32 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE
BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH TEMPS
MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION TODAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
TEMPORARY MVFR VIS/CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 261010
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
310 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN IDAHO THE NEXT THREE DAYS. NOTHING LOOKS AS IF IT WILL
PROVIDE HEAVY SNOW BUT MAINLY SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT.
SYSTEM SATURDAY DROPS FURTHER SOUTH AND MODELS TRENDING TO DRY IT
OUT SOME BUT KEPT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH FRIDAY LIKELY WETTEST DAY. EXPECT COLDER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD GETTING COLDER EACH DAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MAJOR IMPACTS NOT EXPECTED BUT SOME
MOUNTAIN ROADS COULD OCCASIONALLY SEE SOME SNOW COVER INTO
SATURDAY.
GK

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ON SUNDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STILL RATHER EXTENSIVE AND AN ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WHERE MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE MID OR UPPER 30S. EXPECT A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON MONDAY
WITH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE DUE NORTH BUT HAS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR WITH IT. DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW THIS COULD BE
A LEGITIMATE SNOW MAKER FOR THE REGION. EXPECT MUCH COLDER TEMPS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STRUGGLING TO
GET BACK TO 32 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE
BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH TEMPS
MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION TODAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
TEMPORARY MVFR VIS/CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 261010
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
310 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN IDAHO THE NEXT THREE DAYS. NOTHING LOOKS AS IF IT WILL
PROVIDE HEAVY SNOW BUT MAINLY SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT.
SYSTEM SATURDAY DROPS FURTHER SOUTH AND MODELS TRENDING TO DRY IT
OUT SOME BUT KEPT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH FRIDAY LIKELY WETTEST DAY. EXPECT COLDER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD GETTING COLDER EACH DAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MAJOR IMPACTS NOT EXPECTED BUT SOME
MOUNTAIN ROADS COULD OCCASIONALLY SEE SOME SNOW COVER INTO
SATURDAY.
GK

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ON SUNDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STILL RATHER EXTENSIVE AND AN ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WHERE MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE MID OR UPPER 30S. EXPECT A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON MONDAY
WITH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE DUE NORTH BUT HAS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR WITH IT. DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW THIS COULD BE
A LEGITIMATE SNOW MAKER FOR THE REGION. EXPECT MUCH COLDER TEMPS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STRUGGLING TO
GET BACK TO 32 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE
BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH TEMPS
MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION TODAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
TEMPORARY MVFR VIS/CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 261010
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
310 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN IDAHO THE NEXT THREE DAYS. NOTHING LOOKS AS IF IT WILL
PROVIDE HEAVY SNOW BUT MAINLY SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT.
SYSTEM SATURDAY DROPS FURTHER SOUTH AND MODELS TRENDING TO DRY IT
OUT SOME BUT KEPT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH FRIDAY LIKELY WETTEST DAY. EXPECT COLDER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD GETTING COLDER EACH DAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL
NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MAJOR IMPACTS NOT EXPECTED BUT SOME
MOUNTAIN ROADS COULD OCCASIONALLY SEE SOME SNOW COVER INTO
SATURDAY.
GK

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

ON SUNDAY THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS STILL RATHER EXTENSIVE AND AN ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY WHERE MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE
HIGHS IN THE MID OR UPPER 30S. EXPECT A BRIEF DRY PERIOD ON MONDAY
WITH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVING LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE DUE NORTH BUT HAS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR WITH IT. DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW THIS COULD BE
A LEGITIMATE SNOW MAKER FOR THE REGION. EXPECT MUCH COLDER TEMPS
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STRUGGLING TO
GET BACK TO 32 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. DRIER WEATHER WILL SETTLE
BACK INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH TEMPS
MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL WORK INTO THE REGION TODAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME
TEMPORARY MVFR VIS/CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 252055
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE NEXT PAC LOW
CURRENTLY TOPPING THE ERN PAC RIDGE OFF THE NW BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. THE MODELS GRADUALLY DRIVE THE LOW INTO THE NW BRITISH
COLUMBIA OVERNIGHT AS ATTENDING MOISTURE SPILLS INTO
WASHINGTON...OREGON...AND WRN IDAHO THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW DIGS
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ADVANCING
ACROSS WRN OREGON FRIDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
CNTRL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE LOW DIGS SE INTO THE SIERRA. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW SATURDAY WITH THE
ECMWF ROTATING IT WESTWARD INTO THE BAY AREA WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
MUCH LESS SNOW OVER SE IDAHO AND THE NAM WHICH FLASHED A MORE
EASTWARD TRACK INTO NW NEVADA WHICH WOULD NATURALLY RESULT IN
GREATER SNOWFALL. FOR NOW AM SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GFS AND THE NAM AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK OUT THE
DETAILS AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEAR. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. INITIALLY WILL SEE A
WAVE DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD EXIT TO OUR SOUTH AND WILL SEE SOME CLEARING STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SE IDAHO. MODELS ARE PROJECTING ANOTHER WAVE TO
DROP OUT OF BC ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING MORE SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WITH INITIAL IMPACT OF SNOW TO BE FELT IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
HIGHLANDS BY TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE
RELATIVELY MINOR. GFS IS FASTER IN PULLING THE PRECIP OUT OF IDAHO
COMPLETELY BY EARLY WED MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS ON TO IT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUED BREEZY TODAY ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN WITH WINDS
SHIFTING A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY AT KIDA/KPIH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IDAHO EARLY TOMORROW AND COULD BRING SNOW WITH MVFR
CIG/VIS. THE MOISTURE REACHES KPIH AND KBYI AROUND MID-MORNING...BUT
GIVING ONLY VCSH MENTION WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
TOMORROW.  HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 252055
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE NEXT PAC LOW
CURRENTLY TOPPING THE ERN PAC RIDGE OFF THE NW BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. THE MODELS GRADUALLY DRIVE THE LOW INTO THE NW BRITISH
COLUMBIA OVERNIGHT AS ATTENDING MOISTURE SPILLS INTO
WASHINGTON...OREGON...AND WRN IDAHO THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW DIGS
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ADVANCING
ACROSS WRN OREGON FRIDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
CNTRL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE LOW DIGS SE INTO THE SIERRA. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW SATURDAY WITH THE
ECMWF ROTATING IT WESTWARD INTO THE BAY AREA WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
MUCH LESS SNOW OVER SE IDAHO AND THE NAM WHICH FLASHED A MORE
EASTWARD TRACK INTO NW NEVADA WHICH WOULD NATURALLY RESULT IN
GREATER SNOWFALL. FOR NOW AM SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GFS AND THE NAM AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK OUT THE
DETAILS AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEAR. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. INITIALLY WILL SEE A
WAVE DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD EXIT TO OUR SOUTH AND WILL SEE SOME CLEARING STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SE IDAHO. MODELS ARE PROJECTING ANOTHER WAVE TO
DROP OUT OF BC ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING MORE SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WITH INITIAL IMPACT OF SNOW TO BE FELT IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
HIGHLANDS BY TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE
RELATIVELY MINOR. GFS IS FASTER IN PULLING THE PRECIP OUT OF IDAHO
COMPLETELY BY EARLY WED MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS ON TO IT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUED BREEZY TODAY ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN WITH WINDS
SHIFTING A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY AT KIDA/KPIH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IDAHO EARLY TOMORROW AND COULD BRING SNOW WITH MVFR
CIG/VIS. THE MOISTURE REACHES KPIH AND KBYI AROUND MID-MORNING...BUT
GIVING ONLY VCSH MENTION WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
TOMORROW.  HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 252055
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE NEXT PAC LOW
CURRENTLY TOPPING THE ERN PAC RIDGE OFF THE NW BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. THE MODELS GRADUALLY DRIVE THE LOW INTO THE NW BRITISH
COLUMBIA OVERNIGHT AS ATTENDING MOISTURE SPILLS INTO
WASHINGTON...OREGON...AND WRN IDAHO THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW DIGS
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ADVANCING
ACROSS WRN OREGON FRIDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
CNTRL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE LOW DIGS SE INTO THE SIERRA. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW SATURDAY WITH THE
ECMWF ROTATING IT WESTWARD INTO THE BAY AREA WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
MUCH LESS SNOW OVER SE IDAHO AND THE NAM WHICH FLASHED A MORE
EASTWARD TRACK INTO NW NEVADA WHICH WOULD NATURALLY RESULT IN
GREATER SNOWFALL. FOR NOW AM SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GFS AND THE NAM AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK OUT THE
DETAILS AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEAR. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. INITIALLY WILL SEE A
WAVE DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD EXIT TO OUR SOUTH AND WILL SEE SOME CLEARING STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SE IDAHO. MODELS ARE PROJECTING ANOTHER WAVE TO
DROP OUT OF BC ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING MORE SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WITH INITIAL IMPACT OF SNOW TO BE FELT IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
HIGHLANDS BY TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE
RELATIVELY MINOR. GFS IS FASTER IN PULLING THE PRECIP OUT OF IDAHO
COMPLETELY BY EARLY WED MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS ON TO IT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUED BREEZY TODAY ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN WITH WINDS
SHIFTING A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY AT KIDA/KPIH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IDAHO EARLY TOMORROW AND COULD BRING SNOW WITH MVFR
CIG/VIS. THE MOISTURE REACHES KPIH AND KBYI AROUND MID-MORNING...BUT
GIVING ONLY VCSH MENTION WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
TOMORROW.  HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 252055
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
155 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE NEXT PAC LOW
CURRENTLY TOPPING THE ERN PAC RIDGE OFF THE NW BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. THE MODELS GRADUALLY DRIVE THE LOW INTO THE NW BRITISH
COLUMBIA OVERNIGHT AS ATTENDING MOISTURE SPILLS INTO
WASHINGTON...OREGON...AND WRN IDAHO THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW DIGS
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ADVANCING
ACROSS WRN OREGON FRIDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
CNTRL IDAHO MOUNTAINS AND MAGIC VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE LOW DIGS SE INTO THE SIERRA. THE MODELS SHOW SOME
SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW SATURDAY WITH THE
ECMWF ROTATING IT WESTWARD INTO THE BAY AREA WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
MUCH LESS SNOW OVER SE IDAHO AND THE NAM WHICH FLASHED A MORE
EASTWARD TRACK INTO NW NEVADA WHICH WOULD NATURALLY RESULT IN
GREATER SNOWFALL. FOR NOW AM SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD GFS AND THE NAM AND WILL CONTINUE TO WORK OUT THE
DETAILS AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEAR. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. INITIALLY WILL SEE A
WAVE DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST. THIS
SHOULD EXIT TO OUR SOUTH AND WILL SEE SOME CLEARING STARTING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SE IDAHO. MODELS ARE PROJECTING ANOTHER WAVE TO
DROP OUT OF BC ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING MORE SNOW AND COOLER
TEMPS TO THE AREA. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM WITH INITIAL IMPACT OF SNOW TO BE FELT IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
HIGHLANDS BY TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE
RELATIVELY MINOR. GFS IS FASTER IN PULLING THE PRECIP OUT OF IDAHO
COMPLETELY BY EARLY WED MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS ON TO IT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...CONTINUED BREEZY TODAY ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN WITH WINDS
SHIFTING A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY/NORTHERLY AT KIDA/KPIH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IDAHO EARLY TOMORROW AND COULD BRING SNOW WITH MVFR
CIG/VIS. THE MOISTURE REACHES KPIH AND KBYI AROUND MID-MORNING...BUT
GIVING ONLY VCSH MENTION WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
TOMORROW.  HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 251025
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
325 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
GENERAL TREND IN SHORT TERM IS FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TO CONTINUE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PERHAPS MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE SNAKE PLAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY
THEN TURNING COLDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL. MAY BE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS IN EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
GK

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO HEAD DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST
DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LOW...WEST OF THE REGION. EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS FOR SATURDAY. GFS IS SHOWING BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DOWN THROUGH BURLEY...ROSE
SNOW CHANCES IN THOSE AREAS. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND ON SUNDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THE AREA WILL SEE SOMETHING FROM THIS NEXT SYSTEM ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT AS TO
EXACT DETAILS.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS
ACROSS WYOMING TODAY...PERHAPS GRAZING PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN
IDAHO. WILL PROBABLY NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

VALLE
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 251025
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
325 AM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
GENERAL TREND IN SHORT TERM IS FOR NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
TO CONTINUE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS PERHAPS MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE SNAKE PLAIN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY
THEN TURNING COLDER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL. MAY BE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS IN EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
GK

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO HEAD DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST
DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH
THE LOW...WEST OF THE REGION. EXPECT SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS FOR SATURDAY. GFS IS SHOWING BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS DOWN THROUGH BURLEY...ROSE
SNOW CHANCES IN THOSE AREAS. STILL NOT EXPECTING MUCH SNOW WITH THIS
SYSTEM. WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND ON SUNDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. FAIRLY
CONFIDENT THE AREA WILL SEE SOMETHING FROM THIS NEXT SYSTEM ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AND DISAGREEMENT AS TO
EXACT DETAILS.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS
ACROSS WYOMING TODAY...PERHAPS GRAZING PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN
IDAHO. WILL PROBABLY NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

VALLE
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








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