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000
FXUS65 KPIH 240759
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
159 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...WV/IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO THE PAC NW THIS MORNING. UPPER TROUGH IS CARVING OUT AROUND
140W SIGNALING AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE
WEST. MODELS SHOW THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL RESULT IN THE MOISTURE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE PATTERN WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PACIFIC TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO. WITH DECENT MODEL
AGREEMENT...HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO FOR
SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD ALSO BE DROPPING TO 6500 TO 7000 FT
SUNDAY MORNING...THEN AROUND 5000 FT BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE PEAKS OF
THE SAWTOOTHS MAY SEE ABOUT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER THE
WEEKEND.

MODELS TREND A BIT DRIER STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE PAC NW...BUT ARE TRYING TO DRIVE ANOTHER
UPPER SHORT WAVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DO INDICATE
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...SO
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN EXTENDED PERIODS.  HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORN AROUND
KSUN...BUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES TODAY WILL PUSH
ANY LINGERING MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THRU TONIGHT. HEDGES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BUILDING UPPER RIDGING TODAY WILL
PUSH LINGERING PACIFIC MOISTURE TO THE NORTH BY THIS EVENING...
RESULTING IN DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY WINDS BY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT
RIDGE TOPS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. STRONG SW WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT FAIRLY HIGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN FALL TO AROUND 6000FT BY SUNDAY EVENING. SHOWERY AND
COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT. HEDGES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KPIH 231931
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
131 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

STREAM OF MOISTURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS PRODUCING SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION
SNOW TO PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY
MOVING NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS ARE SITTING AROUND 8500 FEET
WITH A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. AS THE STREAM OF MOISTURE
MOVES NORTH OF FRIDAY VERY WARM AIR WILL PUMP INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTH. MANY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70. SATURDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOW 70S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS WHICH IS ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES OFF THE RECORDS. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPS ABOUT 20
DEGREES COOLER. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6500 FEET AND THERE
WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS.
A FEW OF THE MOUNTAIN PASSES MAINLY GOING INTO MONTANA AND WYOMING
COULD SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ON THEM.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THU NIGHT. SUN STORM
LINGERS INTO MON WITH MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING
LIGHT SNOW...IN THE ID-MT AND ID-WY BORDER REGION. THERE IS FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF UNTIL THE LAST 36 HOURS
OR SO...ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE WETTER. THERE IS ANOTHER
WEAK TROUGH TUE NIGHT INTO WED. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION APPEARS
TERRAIN INDUCED IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS FOR THE WEST NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AT THE TAIL END OF THIS PERIOD...THE GFS IS ACTUALLY DRIER
THAN THE ECMWF WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN. THE ECMWF HOLDS ON WITH
THE TROUGHING BY ABOUT A DAY...DRYING OUT JUST AFTER THE END OF
THIS PERIOD. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THIS WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WITH THE RISK OF OVERNIGHT SNOW EVEN AS LOW AS THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN. THUS...PEOPLE NEED TO START ANTICIPATING WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS COMING WEEK AND GETTING IN THAT MIND-SET...SO TAKE
MEASURES NOW. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...MID-LEVEL CIGS SHOULD DISAPPEAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AIRDROMES
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN A LITTLE BIT MORE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
WILL PUT THE MOISTURE PLUME COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC MORE SQUARELY
OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS. KSUN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND KEEP
LOW CIGS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THEN LIFT TO MID-LEVEL BY OPENING FRI
MORNING. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND NO VSBY
IMPACT WITH LIGHT RAIN ONLY POSSIBLE AT KSUN. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KPIH 230822
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
222 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE BC COAST AND IS
RESULTING IN SOME MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING A BIT WETTER FOR THE DAY TODAY
AND INTO TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS AND QPF ACCORDINGLY. PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY FRIDAY
EVENING PUSHING MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH AND DRIER/WARMER AIR EXPECTED
TO BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE PUSHING UPPER TROUGH INLAND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY PUSHING MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
IDAHO THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONSISTENCY WITH
TIMING. THUS DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED PERIODS. GFS IS
SHOWING A WETTER REGIME AS IT CONTAINS MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM
ANA. THE TROPICAL SOURCE OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SNOW LEVELS
TUES/WED ABOVE 6000 FT. OTHERWISE SNOW LEVELS DIP AROUND 5000-5500
FT SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEAST
IDAHO. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING PAC MOISTURE INTO THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER REGION TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
CENTRAL MTNS WHERE THE MOIST FLOW INTERACTS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HEDGES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY WHERE THE FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP MORE ON FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE
MOISTURE FLOW WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. COOL AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HEDGES
&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KPIH 230822
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
222 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OFF THE BC COAST AND IS
RESULTING IN SOME MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE INLAND
NORTHWEST. MODELS SEEM TO BE TRENDING A BIT WETTER FOR THE DAY TODAY
AND INTO TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS AND QPF ACCORDINGLY. PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY FRIDAY
EVENING PUSHING MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH AND DRIER/WARMER AIR EXPECTED
TO BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY. MODELS ARE PUSHING UPPER TROUGH INLAND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY PUSHING MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
IDAHO THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH CONSISTENCY WITH
TIMING. THUS DID NOT MAKE MAJOR CHANGES TO EXTENDED PERIODS. GFS IS
SHOWING A WETTER REGIME AS IT CONTAINS MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM
ANA. THE TROPICAL SOURCE OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SNOW LEVELS
TUES/WED ABOVE 6000 FT. OTHERWISE SNOW LEVELS DIP AROUND 5000-5500
FT SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEAST
IDAHO. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING PAC MOISTURE INTO THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER REGION TODAY. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
CENTRAL MTNS WHERE THE MOIST FLOW INTERACTS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN. THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. HEDGES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PACIFIC MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY WHERE THE FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP MORE ON FRIDAY...EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE
MOISTURE FLOW WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. COOL AND WETTER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HEDGES
&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KPIH 230212
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
812 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING
TO ADD MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY ARE SHOWING ONGOING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN OREGON WITHIN INCOMING MOISTURE PLUME.
00Z NAM HAS ALSO TRENDED STRONGLY TOWARD EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS
WHICH WAS SHOWING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO
TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SNAKE
PLAIN...HOWEVER MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY SPREADING   IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS MAKES FOR TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
FAVORED THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER PLAIN, SOME WARMING IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. ALONG THE I-86 CORRIDOR...WARMED
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS COULD MAKE THEM GO EITHER WAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS MODELS
SUGGESTED YESTERDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR 135-140W DIGS
SOUTHWARD WITH THE DOWN STREAM MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH BOWS NORTHWARD BY FRIDAY
NIGHT UNDER AN AMPLIFYING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. SNOW LEVELS ABOUT
8000 FEET FRIDAY RISING TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING. VERY
LIMITED ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.
CONTINUE TO WATCH MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA WEST OF
HAWAII. LATEST GFS MODEL DRAWS SOME OF THIS MOISTURE INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH...BUT WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER
IDAHO...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MAIN MOISTURE ENDS UP MOVING INTO
OREGON...WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PAN HANDLE. WE STILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TRIES TO MOVE INLAND A DAY
OR TWO LATER. RS

.LONG TERM...SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STILL EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW STAYING ABOVE 6000
FEET OR SO. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW ITS EXIT...SO HAVE
BOOSTED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON. THERE ARE STRONG MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEYOND SUN NIGHT WITH THE WETTER GFS SCENARIO AND A
DRIER ECMWF. THIS HAS BEEN HAPPENING FOR THE SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN MORE RELIABLE. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING WETTER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW GONE DURING THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME. TENDED TO
BELIEVE THE GFS MORE...BUT NCEP HAS CONTINUED TO RECOMMEND A BLEND
OF THE TWO MODELS. THE GFS IS BRINGING UP MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM ANA THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH MAKES TUE-WED A VERY WET
PERIOD ON THE GFS FOR SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE FASCINATING THING IS THAT
THE MORE MILD TROPICAL AIR OF THE GFS KEEPS TEMPERATURES MILD IN
SPITE OF THE CLOUD COVER...WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE SAME RANGE DUE TO ITS CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY STRONG
DISCREPANCIES OCCUR ON MONDAY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.  AN
AVERAGE OF THE TWO MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS GIVES A MORE REASONABLE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR MON...AT LEAST FOR NOW. MESSICK
&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH ALLOWING MID- AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO...COMMONLY CALLED A DIRTY RIDGE
SITUATION. MID-LEVEL CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
MOST OF THE DAY ON THU. WIND SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT AND NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. MESSICK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 230212
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
812 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING
TO ADD MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY ARE SHOWING ONGOING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS ERN OREGON WITHIN INCOMING MOISTURE PLUME.
00Z NAM HAS ALSO TRENDED STRONGLY TOWARD EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS
WHICH WAS SHOWING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO
TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SNAKE
PLAIN...HOWEVER MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY SPREADING   IN
FROM THE WEST. THIS MAKES FOR TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
FAVORED THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER PLAIN, SOME WARMING IN
THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. ALONG THE I-86 CORRIDOR...WARMED
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS COULD MAKE THEM GO EITHER WAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS MODELS
SUGGESTED YESTERDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR 135-140W DIGS
SOUTHWARD WITH THE DOWN STREAM MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH BOWS NORTHWARD BY FRIDAY
NIGHT UNDER AN AMPLIFYING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. SNOW LEVELS ABOUT
8000 FEET FRIDAY RISING TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING. VERY
LIMITED ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.
CONTINUE TO WATCH MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA WEST OF
HAWAII. LATEST GFS MODEL DRAWS SOME OF THIS MOISTURE INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH...BUT WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER
IDAHO...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MAIN MOISTURE ENDS UP MOVING INTO
OREGON...WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PAN HANDLE. WE STILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TRIES TO MOVE INLAND A DAY
OR TWO LATER. RS

.LONG TERM...SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STILL EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW STAYING ABOVE 6000
FEET OR SO. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW ITS EXIT...SO HAVE
BOOSTED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON. THERE ARE STRONG MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEYOND SUN NIGHT WITH THE WETTER GFS SCENARIO AND A
DRIER ECMWF. THIS HAS BEEN HAPPENING FOR THE SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN MORE RELIABLE. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING WETTER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW GONE DURING THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME. TENDED TO
BELIEVE THE GFS MORE...BUT NCEP HAS CONTINUED TO RECOMMEND A BLEND
OF THE TWO MODELS. THE GFS IS BRINGING UP MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM ANA THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH MAKES TUE-WED A VERY WET
PERIOD ON THE GFS FOR SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE FASCINATING THING IS THAT
THE MORE MILD TROPICAL AIR OF THE GFS KEEPS TEMPERATURES MILD IN
SPITE OF THE CLOUD COVER...WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE SAME RANGE DUE TO ITS CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY STRONG
DISCREPANCIES OCCUR ON MONDAY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.  AN
AVERAGE OF THE TWO MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS GIVES A MORE REASONABLE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR MON...AT LEAST FOR NOW. MESSICK
&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH ALLOWING MID- AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO...COMMONLY CALLED A DIRTY RIDGE
SITUATION. MID-LEVEL CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
MOST OF THE DAY ON THU. WIND SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT AND NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. MESSICK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 221945
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
145 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IDAHO TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
SNAKE PLAIN...HOWEVER MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY SPREADING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MAKES FOR TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
FAVORED THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER PLAIN, SOME WARMING
IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. ALONG THE I-86 CORRIDOR...WARMED
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS COULD MAKE THEM GO EITHER WAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS MODELS
SUGGESTED YESTERDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR 135-140W DIGS
SOUTHWARD WITH THE DOWN STREAM MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH BOWS NORTHWARD BY FRIDAY
NIGHT UNDER AN AMPLIFYING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. SNOW LEVELS ABOUT
8000 FEET FRIDAY RISING TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING. VERY
LIMITED ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.
CONTINUE TO WATCH MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA WEST OF
HAWAII. LATEST GFS MODEL DRAWS SOME OF THIS MOISTURE INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH...BUT WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER
IDAHO...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MAIN MOISTURE ENDS UP MOVING INTO
OREGON...WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PAN HANDLE. WE STILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TRIES TO MOVE INLAND A DAY
OR TWO LATER. RS

.LONG TERM...SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STILL EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW STAYING ABOVE 6000
FEET OR SO. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW ITS EXIT...SO HAVE
BOOSTED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON. THERE ARE STRONG MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEYOND SUN NIGHT WITH THE WETTER GFS SCENARIO AND A
DRIER ECMWF. THIS HAS BEEN HAPPENING FOR THE SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN MORE RELIABLE. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING WETTER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW GONE DURING THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME. TENDED TO
BELIEVE THE GFS MORE...BUT NCEP HAS CONTINUED TO RECOMMEND A BLEND
OF THE TWO MODELS. THE GFS IS BRINGING UP MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM ANA THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH MAKES TUE-WED A VERY WET
PERIOD ON THE GFS FOR SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE FASCINATING THING IS THAT
THE MORE MILD TROPICAL AIR OF THE GFS KEEPS TEMPERATURES MILD IN
SPITE OF THE CLOUD COVER...WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE SAME RANGE DUE TO ITS CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY STRONG
DISCREPANCIES OCCUR ON MONDAY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.  AN
AVERAGE OF THE TWO MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS GIVES A MORE REASONABLE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR MON...AT LEAST FOR NOW. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH ALLOWING MID- AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO...COMMONLY CALLED A DIRTY RIDGE
SITUATION. MID-LEVEL CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
MOST OF THE DAY ON THU. WIND SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT AND NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 221945
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
145 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IDAHO TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
SNAKE PLAIN...HOWEVER MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY SPREADING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MAKES FOR TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
FAVORED THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER PLAIN, SOME WARMING
IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. ALONG THE I-86 CORRIDOR...WARMED
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS COULD MAKE THEM GO EITHER WAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS MODELS
SUGGESTED YESTERDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR 135-140W DIGS
SOUTHWARD WITH THE DOWN STREAM MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH BOWS NORTHWARD BY FRIDAY
NIGHT UNDER AN AMPLIFYING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. SNOW LEVELS ABOUT
8000 FEET FRIDAY RISING TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING. VERY
LIMITED ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.
CONTINUE TO WATCH MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA WEST OF
HAWAII. LATEST GFS MODEL DRAWS SOME OF THIS MOISTURE INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH...BUT WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER
IDAHO...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MAIN MOISTURE ENDS UP MOVING INTO
OREGON...WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PAN HANDLE. WE STILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TRIES TO MOVE INLAND A DAY
OR TWO LATER. RS

.LONG TERM...SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STILL EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW STAYING ABOVE 6000
FEET OR SO. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW ITS EXIT...SO HAVE
BOOSTED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON. THERE ARE STRONG MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEYOND SUN NIGHT WITH THE WETTER GFS SCENARIO AND A
DRIER ECMWF. THIS HAS BEEN HAPPENING FOR THE SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN MORE RELIABLE. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING WETTER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW GONE DURING THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME. TENDED TO
BELIEVE THE GFS MORE...BUT NCEP HAS CONTINUED TO RECOMMEND A BLEND
OF THE TWO MODELS. THE GFS IS BRINGING UP MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM ANA THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH MAKES TUE-WED A VERY WET
PERIOD ON THE GFS FOR SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE FASCINATING THING IS THAT
THE MORE MILD TROPICAL AIR OF THE GFS KEEPS TEMPERATURES MILD IN
SPITE OF THE CLOUD COVER...WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE SAME RANGE DUE TO ITS CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY STRONG
DISCREPANCIES OCCUR ON MONDAY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.  AN
AVERAGE OF THE TWO MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS GIVES A MORE REASONABLE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR MON...AT LEAST FOR NOW. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH ALLOWING MID- AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO...COMMONLY CALLED A DIRTY RIDGE
SITUATION. MID-LEVEL CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
MOST OF THE DAY ON THU. WIND SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT AND NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 220859
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
259 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...FAIR WEATHER TODAY UNDER A TRANSIENT RIDGE AS IT
PASSES OVER IDAHO. AS RIDGING SLIDES TO THE EAST...IT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STEADY STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE MID AND
UPPER-LEVELS. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND KEPT POPS MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY THEN...RIDGING WILL
AGAIN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION SHIFTING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FURTHER NORTH. MODELS SHOWING A DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC
NW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
AND THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
TROUGH ADVANCES INLAND LATE SATURDAY AND PUSHES RAIN THREAT FURTHER
ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS ON
SUNDAY. BOUNDARY-LAYER AND 700 MB WIND PROGS SUGGEST BREEZIER
CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES ON SUNDAY...BUT WIND SPEEDS
REMAINING 25 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN.

GFS BOOSTS MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AGAIN TUESDAY WITH REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM ANA PUSHING ONSHORE...THOUGH MODELS STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH TIMING.

HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS THRU TONIGHT. A FEW LOW CLDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORN IN
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. HEDGES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER RIDGING TODAY WILL RESULT IN RATHER QUIET
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY
...WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY...WITH
SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK UP OVER THE ROCKIES.  A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. HEDGES
&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 212007
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
207 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTH
AND EAST AND BY MIDNIGHT...THE ONLY SHOWERS LEFT WILL BE NEAR ISLAND
PARK. WINDS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN ARE ALSO DROPPING OFF AND WILL CANCEL
THE WIND ADVISORY SHORTLY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRANSITIONS THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A SHORT BREAK FROM ANY SHOWERS. WITH RESPECT
TO THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NEAR 135W...MODEL
CONSENSUS IS TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH THE NEXT 48 TO 60
HOURS. THIS PLACES THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO
UNDER THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE AMPLITUDE
OF THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN INCREASES SHARPLY..TAKING ANY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WELL NORTH TO THE PAN HANDLE BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH CAN MOVE
INLAND. THAT GIVES THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A CHANCE WARM UP ABOUT
15 DEGREES THE NEXT COUPLE THREE DAYS BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN. WELCOME
TO FALL WEATHER. RS

.LONG TERM...FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUE NIGHT. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT/SUN. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
WINDY WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...VERY LIKELY SNOW DOWN TO THE 6000
FT ELEVATION IN PLACES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE THIS
FEATURE...AND HAVE HAD IT FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND THIS
POINT...THE ECMWF TAKES A DEPARTURE FROM THE GFS WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT KEEPS THE REST OF THIS PERIOD DRY. THE GFS IS THE
EXACT OPPOSITE WITH A LOW CONTAINING TROPICAL MOISTURE MAKING FOR A
LARGE PRECIPITATION EVENT ON MON NIGHT/TUE/TUE NIGHT. NCEP HAS NOT
PREFERRED THE DRY ECMWF...BUT HAS SUGGESTED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO GUIDANCE SUITES. THIS IS WHAT HAS BEEN DONE...WITH AN ADJUSTMENT
FOR SURROUNDING OFFICE COORDINATION. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...WIND WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH THAT
FOG AND STRATUS ARE NOT CONSIDERED A PROBLEM FOR ANY AIRDROME...AT
LEAST AT THIS TIME. NO SERIOUS IMPACT TO AVIATION INTERESTS ON WED.
MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$









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