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000
FXUS65 KPIH 202007
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
207 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...SOUTHEAST IDAHO WILL BE UNDER A TRANSITORY SHORT WAVE RIDGE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EARLY EVENING WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. MONDAY
ENDS UP BEING A WARMER DAY WITH VALLEY HIGHS 65 TO 70 DEGREES AND
LITTLE WIND. MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ELEVATED TO
8500 FEET ELEVATION OR HIGHER WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
RAIN ON THE UPPER SLOPES AS A LEADING DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH RIPPLES THROUGH ROUGHLY FROM PICABO TO ISLAND
PARK. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION OVER SPREADS THE AREA TUESDAY. VERY
DIFFICULT TO FIND ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SNOW LEVELS
DROP TO ABOUT 7500 FEET BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY
4500-5000FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ESTIMATE A HALF INCH OF LIQUID
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN TUESDAY MORNING AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING ON THE WEST SIDE OF CUSTER COUNTY. WEB CAMS SUGGEST A GOOD
DEAL OF SNOW HAS ALREADY COME OFF IN THAT AREA SO NOT REAL CONFIDENT
IN THIS BECOMING A FLOOD THREAT. FOR THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS...THE
SNOW PACK AROUND ISLAND PARK...DRIGGS...AND AREAS ABOVE THE HENRYS
FORK AND TETON RIVER THE SNOW PACK IS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE.
HOWEVER...24 HOUR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ARE ONLY AROUND .20 TO
.25 INCH FOR THE MOUNTAINS. ANY FLOODING MAY BE LIMITED TO SMALL
STREAMS AT BEST AND GENERALLY ISOLATED EVENTS. TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE NEAR WIND ADVISORY AGAIN WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH
AND GUSTY. EXPECTING HIGHS WEDNESDAY NEAR 50 IN THE VALLEYS. RS

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY WET. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
MONTANA WILL KEEP SOME RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WAVES OF MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA BEGINNING THURSDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE THE WETTEST DAYS AT THIS POINT WHEN A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE DIPPING
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND
QUICKLY THIS EVENING. HIGH CIRRUS WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 200848
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
248 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT IS MAKING
ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST IDAHO THIS MORNING WITH WINDS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT GUSTING TO 40 TO 45 MPH. MOS GUIDANCE STILL
SHOWING WINDS BEGINNING TO DECLINE AFTER 15Z TODAY AS GRADIENT
WEAKENS. AS THE WEATHER SETTLES DOWN LATER TODAY...WE BEGIN TO FOCUS
ON A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE PATTERN OVER THE WEST ON TUESDAY. A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC COAST EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A NEGATIVE TILT. MODELS ARE
INDICATING THIS WILL BE A WET AND WINDY SYSTEM IMPACTING SOUTHEAST
IDAHO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE AS WELL
GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF
INSTABILITY. HINSBERGER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROF DEEPENING TO AN UPPER LOW OVER
NORTHERN MT BY WED EVE. MTN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ON
WED...WHILE VALLEY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM W TO
EAST. BY WED EVE...ONLY WIDELY SCT MTN SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY
FRI AS A NEW UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN AGREEMENT AGAIN...BUT THEY SOON PART COMPANY. THE ECMWF ROTATES A
SHORT WAVE THRU ID BY SAT MORN AND HOLDS THE MAIN SYSTEM OFFSHORE...
WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE MAIN SYSTEM ONTO THE WEST COAST. AS FAR AS
THE RESULTING FCST...NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ON
FRI...BECOMING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ON SAT. SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
RUN ABOVE 7500 FT BOTH FRI AND SAT. THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS
UNSETTLED THRU SUN...SO WILL CARRY PRECIP THRU SUN AND SLOWLY BACK
OFF THE CHANCES SUN NIGHT WITH TEMPS REMAINING COOL THRU THE
WEEKEND. HEDGES
&&

.AVIATION...A DRY COLD FRONT PASSING THRU SE ID EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SW WINDS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS AFTN.
CIG/VIS WILL REMAIN VFR THRU TONIGHT. HEDGES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 200310
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
910 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH PACNW THIS EVENING PER WV/IR
SAT IMAGERY. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST NEVADA WITH COLD
FRONT NEARING WESTERN IDAHO BORDER THIS EVENING. EXPECT COLD FRONT
TO SLIDE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z.
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT FAVOR EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND LOWER SNAKE
PLAIN FOR INCREASED WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST NAM GUIDANCE
STAYING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS RUNS WITH SUB-ADVISORY WINDS EVEN AT MID
MORNING PEAK. SUBSIDENCE NOT AS STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE
PREVIOUS SHORTWAVE SO HAVE A TENDENCY TO STAY CLOSER TO GUIDANCE
WITH THIS FEATURE. LATEST RUC/RAP THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
GENERATING WEAK QPF ALONG DIVIDE OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY TO BETTER FIT WITH
NEIGHBORS IN THE ISLAND PARK REGION THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
WITH ALL OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS DRY. MADE A FEW TWEAKS IN WIND TOWARD
THE LATEST HRRR/RAP SOLUTIONS FOR OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED. DMH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYS NORTH
IN THE PAN HANDLE AREA...MAYBE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS FAR
SOUTH AS SALMON TOWARD MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE IN
THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY...LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
PICK UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH. COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL RESULT IN MORNING LOWS IN THAT AREA IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY.

MODELS HAVE TAKEN A SLOWER TREND WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...INCREASING THE
AMPLITUDE AND SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES OVER SOUTHEAST
IDAHO ON TUESDAY. AN EARLY ESTIMATE OF RAIN IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
BETWEEN SUN VALLEY AND CHALLIS COULD RANGE FROM .25 TO .50 INCH.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 8500 FEET ELEVATION INITIALLY...THEN
LOWER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A HALF FOOT OF SNOW ON THE UPPER
SLOPES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ON SNOWPACK AND RAPID RISE ON SMALL
STREAMS. AREAS TO WATCH WILL BE VALLEY CREEK AND THE BEAVER CREEK
WILDFIRE FIRE SCAR NEAR HAILEY. RAIN FALL FURTHER EAST TOWARDS
REXBURG COULD BE LESS...WILL HAVE TO TAKE THE FORECAST A STEP AT A
TIME. RS

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AN EXITING
SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR WILL
LIKELY MOVE IN QUICK ENOUGH TO BRING LIGHT SNOW FOR THE UPPER SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN AND TO AN LESSER EXTENT THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS ON TUESDAY EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS PARTICULARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO ALIGNMENT
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WYATT

AVIATION...A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO AND MONTANA
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
BREAK IN THE WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY PICK UP EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AND REMAIN BREEZY TO MODERATE THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KPIH 192037
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
237 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYS NORTH
IN THE PAN HANDLE AREA...MAYBE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS FAR
SOUTH AS SALMON TOWARD MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE IN
THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY...LOWER SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
PICK UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH. COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS
WILL RESULT IN MORNING LOWS IN THAT AREA IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE THEN CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY.

MODELS HAVE TAKEN A SLOWER TREND WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...INCREASING THE
AMPLITUDE AND SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES OVER SOUTHEAST
IDAHO ON TUESDAY. AN EARLY ESTIMATE OF RAIN IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
BETWEEN SUN VALLEY AND CHALLIS COULD RANGE FROM .25 TO .50 INCH.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 8500 FEET ELEVATION INITIALLY...THEN
LOWER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. A HALF FOOT OF SNOW ON THE UPPER
SLOPES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ON SNOWPACK AND RAPID RISE ON SMALL
STREAMS. AREAS TO WATCH WILL BE VALLEY CREEK AND THE BEAVER CREEK
WILDFIRE FIRE SCAR NEAR HAILEY. RAIN FALL FURTHER EAST TOWARDS
REXBURG COULD BE LESS...WILL HAVE TO TAKE THE FORECAST A STEP AT A
TIME. RS

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AN EXITING
SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. COLD AIR WILL
LIKELY MOVE IN QUICK ENOUGH TO BRING LIGHT SNOW FOR THE UPPER SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN AND TO AN LESSER EXTENT THE LOWER SNAKE RIVER PLAIN
BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS ON TUESDAY EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS PARTICULARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS ARE COMING MORE INTO ALIGNMENT
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. EXPECT ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WYATT
&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN IDAHO AND MONTANA
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
BREAK IN THE WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THEY PICK UP EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING AND REMAIN BREEZY TO MODERATE THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 190850
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
250 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LOW CIRCULATING IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA WILL SPIN OFF A SHORT WAVE INTO THE PAC NW TODAY.
MODELS SUGGESTING THIS MAY ENHANCE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
SNAKE PLAIN WITH THE NAM ADVERTISING A STRONGER SURFACE GRADIENT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS KEEPING WIND SPEEDS IN
THE LOW 20 KT RANGE PEAKING AROUND 15Z SUNDAY. WE THEN SEE A BRIEF
TRANSIENT RIDGE BUILD INTO THE AREA LEADING TO FAIR WEATHER.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SPINS INTO THE PAC NW. AS THE TROUGH ENTERS IDAHO...IT WILL
HAVE A NEGATIVE TILT AND WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE INSTABILITY TO INCLUDE THUNDER...BUT ENOUGH
MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO START INCREASING POPS LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
HINSBERGER

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS STILL ON TRACK
WITH A DEEP UPPER TROF MOVING ONTO THE WESTERN US ON TUE. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD
TSTMS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 8000FT. AS
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN
DIMINISHING IN THE VALLEYS ON WED BUT REMAIN HIGHER IN THE MTNS.
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING BELOW
5000FT. THUS MAY SEE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON
WED. A STRONG POST FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WOULD INDICATE GUSTY
WINDS ON WED. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THU...RESULTING IN DRIER
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THRU FRI. THE NEXT SYSTEM DUE
FOR THE WEEKEND IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS. THE GFS IS
FASTER WITH THE UPPER TROF THAN THE ECMWF. WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF
SOLUTION AND ONLY GRADUALLY INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES SAT AND SAT
NIGHT. HEDGES
&&

.AVIATION...SHALLOW UPPER RIDGING TODAY WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS THRU TONIGHT. HEDGES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 190159
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
759 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...SHORTWAVE AXIS CLEARLY PAST EASTERN IDAHO THIS EVENING
WITH VIS/IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWING LITTLE REMAINING IMPACT ALONG EVEN
EASTERN BORDER. MINOR FEATURE MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS INTO THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS EVENING BUT LITTLE IMPACT
OTHER THAN MID/UPPER CLOUD BAND. DECREASED POPS FOR TONIGHT. WINDS
DECREASING ALREADY THIS EVENING PER MESONET OBSERVATIONS WITH ONLY
TWO SITES OVER ARCO DESERT STILL GUSTING INTO LOW 40S RANGE.
REMAINDER OF SITES IN UPPER SNAKE BELOW 30MPH THRESHOLD FOR
ADVISORY AND TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH RAPID DECREASE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH SUNSET. THUS HAVE ALREADY EXPIRED WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
EVENING. DMH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 114 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...RADAR CONFIRMS A FEW SHOWERS LEFT IN THE CARIBOU
HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THOSE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE BORDER OR
DISSIPATED BY 6 PM. THERE WAS SOME INCREASE IN WINDS NEAR IDAHO
FALLS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT IS DROPPING OFF LAST HOUR.
MODELS FAVOR A CONTINUED DECREASE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW HAS NOT MOVED EAST OUT OF
WYOMING JUST YET. NO SIGNS OF THE GROUND DRYING OUT AND BLOWING
DUST SO WILL LET WINDS GRADUALLY DIE OFF WITHOUT AND ADVISORY. THE
NAM12 MODEL KEEPS HINTING AT SOME INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
IS SOME HINT OF A SURFACE TROUGH IN THAT AREA PLUS MIDDLE LEVEL
MOISTURE...DECIDED IT WAS WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...OTHER THAN A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS PRETTY DRY
UNDER MILD WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REBOUND AFTER
TODAY BACK TO THE 65-70F RANGE FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS. RS

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SNOW COMING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE STILL SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS THAT WILL
DEFINITELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH MOISTURE FALLS AND HOW LOW THE SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL. THE ECMWF IS STILL A BIT FASTER MOVING THROUGH A
MORE OPEN SYSTEM VS A CLOSED LOW SHOWN BY THE GFS. IF THE LATTER
MODEL PANS OUT...WE WILL DEFINITELY SEE A LOT MORE SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS COULD GET LOW ENOUGH THAT A MIX IS POSSIBLE
AT NIGHT AND WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IF ANY SNOW
FALLS AT VALLEY ELEVATIONS...IT WOULD NOT BE STICKING AROUND VERY
LONG IT LOOKS LIKE RIGHT NOW. WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. HOPEFULLY...THERE WILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WET THE GROUND AND PREVENT ISSUES WITH BLOWING DUST AND
SAND. OF NOTE...THE ENSEMBLES WE LOOK AT WERE SHOWING THAT THE
CURRENT SCENARIO OF A CLOSED LOW IN THE GFS THIS FAR SOUTH WAS
WEAKLY SUPPORTED.  HOWEVER...IT SEEMS THAT THE GFS OVERALL HAS BEEN
A BIT MORE CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...THE MODELS TRY TO BRING A BRIEF RIDGE OVER THE STATE AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE NEXT BIG STORM FORMS OFFSHORE.  DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OVERALL PATTERN PROGRESSION IN THE
MODELS...WE OPTED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF A JUST A FEW SHOWERS
IN THE PLAIN AND A LOW CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. KEYES

AVIATION...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S COLD
FRONT AND RAINFALL. MOST AREAS ARE VFR BUT WE MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL
DIP TO MVFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR WEATHER SHOULD BE
AROUND ALL WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY BOTH AFTERNOONS WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A MOUNTAIN SHOWER. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ020.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 181914
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
114 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...RADAR CONFIRMS A FEW SHOWERS LEFT IN THE CARIBOU
HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THOSE SHOULD BE ACROSS THE BORDER OR
DISSIPATED BY 6 PM. THERE WAS SOME INCREASE IN WINDS NEAR IDAHO
FALLS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT IS DROPPING OFF LAST HOUR.
MODELS FAVOR A CONTINUED DECREASE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE LOW HAS NOT MOVED EAST OUT OF
WYOMING JUST YET. NO SIGNS OF THE GROUND DRYING OUT AND BLOWING
DUST SO WILL LET WINDS GRADUALLY DIE OFF WITHOUT AND ADVISORY. THE
NAM12 MODEL KEEPS HINTING AT SOME INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
IS SOME HINT OF A SURFACE TROUGH IN THAT AREA PLUS MIDDLE LEVEL
MOISTURE...DECIDED IT WAS WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. OTHERWISE...OTHER THAN A LITTLE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE EASTER WEEKEND LOOKS PRETTY DRY
UNDER MILD WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REBOUND AFTER
TODAY BACK TO THE 65-70F RANGE FOR MOST VALLEY AREAS. RS

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT DECENT SHOT OF RAIN AND SNOW COMING FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE STILL SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS THAT WILL
DEFINITELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH MOISTURE FALLS AND HOW LOW THE SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL. THE ECMWF IS STILL A BIT FASTER MOVING THROUGH A
MORE OPEN SYSTEM VS A CLOSED LOW SHOWN BY THE GFS. IF THE LATTER
MODEL PANS OUT...WE WILL DEFINITELY SEE A LOT MORE SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS COULD GET LOW ENOUGH THAT A MIX IS POSSIBLE
AT NIGHT AND WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IF ANY SNOW
FALLS AT VALLEY ELEVATIONS...IT WOULD NOT BE STICKING AROUND VERY
LONG IT LOOKS LIKE RIGHT NOW. WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. HOPEFULLY...THERE WILL ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO WET THE GROUND AND PREVENT ISSUES WITH BLOWING DUST AND
SAND. OF NOTE...THE ENSEMBLES WE LOOK AT WERE SHOWING THAT THE
CURRENT SCENARIO OF A CLOSED LOW IN THE GFS THIS FAR SOUTH WAS
WEAKLY SUPPORTED.  HOWEVER...IT SEEMS THAT THE GFS OVERALL HAS BEEN
A BIT MORE CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...THE MODELS TRY TO BRING A BRIEF RIDGE OVER THE STATE AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE NEXT BIG STORM FORMS OFFSHORE.  DUE TO THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OVERALL PATTERN PROGRESSION IN THE
MODELS...WE OPTED TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF A JUST A FEW SHOWERS
IN THE PLAIN AND A LOW CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING`S COLD
FRONT AND RAINFALL. MOST AREAS ARE VFR BUT WE MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL
DIP TO MVFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR WEATHER SHOULD BE
AROUND ALL WEEKEND. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY BOTH AFTERNOONS WITH AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A MOUNTAIN SHOWER. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 181625
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1025 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME CLEARING TAKING
PLACE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THIS QUICKER PACE OF CLEARING. WINDS IN THE UPPER SNAKE
PLAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUST UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL AND HOPEFULLY
THE RAIN THIS MORNING WILL SETTLE ANY DUST. NO WIND ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL WATCH FOR SIGNS OF DUST PICKING
UP. RS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 217 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE WEATHER TODAY. PLENTY OF WINDS AND PRECIP BEHIND
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK LATE IN THE MORNING PER GUIDANCE...BUT
PRECIP COULD LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS JUMPED INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE...BUT QUICKLY
SUBSIDED. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF KEEP WIND SPEEDS BELOW 25 KTS THIS
MORNING...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD IMPACTS. SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR. WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING...THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. MODELS DRIVE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE INTO NORTHERN IDAHO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON WEATHER IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.  HINSBERGER

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF IN
AGREEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MON AS A DEEP UPPER TROF MOVES TOWARD THE W
COAST. ONLY EXPECTING ISOLD MTN TSTMS ON MON...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY TUE AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE ON TUE...SO ISOLD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ONLY THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
WILL SEE ANY SNOW. AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF ID ON WED...
PRECIP WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS WIDESPREAD. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER. BEYOND WED THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR AS THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DEPART FROM EACH OTHER. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...AND
PUTS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THU. THE GFS STILL
HAS THE FCST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE EAST.
WILL SCALE BACK PRECIP ON THU AS A COMPROMISE. BOTH MODELS BRING A
NEW UPPER LOW TO THE PAC NW COAST BY SAT MORN...WITH THE ECMWF STILL
FASTER. WILL START A SLOW INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES FRI AND FRI
NIGHT. HEDGES

AVIATION...A COLD FRONT PASSING THRU EASTERN ID THIS MORN WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR...BUT MAY FALL BRIEFLY TO MVFR
WITH THE SHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS AFTN.
HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 180817
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
217 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE THE
HIGHLIGHT OF THE WEATHER TODAY. PLENTY OF WINDS AND PRECIP BEHIND
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL PEAK LATE IN THE MORNING PER GUIDANCE...BUT
PRECIP COULD LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS JUMPED INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE...BUT QUICKLY
SUBSIDED. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF KEEP WIND SPEEDS BELOW 25 KTS THIS
MORNING...AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD IMPACTS. SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP IN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR. WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING...THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. MODELS DRIVE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE INTO NORTHERN IDAHO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON WEATHER IN OUR
FORECAST AREA.  HINSBERGER

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF IN
AGREEMENT FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON MON AS A DEEP UPPER TROF MOVES TOWARD THE W
COAST. ONLY EXPECTING ISOLD MTN TSTMS ON MON...BUT PRECIP CHANCES
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY TUE AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW. TEMPS WILL STILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE ON TUE...SO ISOLD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. ONLY THE HIGH ELEVATIONS
WILL SEE ANY SNOW. AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES EAST OF ID ON WED...
PRECIP WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS WIDESPREAD. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
COOLER. BEYOND WED THE PICTURE BECOMES LESS CLEAR AS THE MODELS
BEGIN TO DEPART FROM EACH OTHER. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE...AND
PUTS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THU. THE GFS STILL
HAS THE FCST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE EAST.
WILL SCALE BACK PRECIP ON THU AS A COMPROMISE. BOTH MODELS BRING A
NEW UPPER LOW TO THE PAC NW COAST BY SAT MORN...WITH THE ECMWF STILL
FASTER. WILL START A SLOW INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES FRI AND FRI
NIGHT. HEDGES
&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT PASSING THRU EASTERN ID THIS MORN WILL
BRING RAIN SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY VFR...BUT MAY FALL BRIEFLY TO MVFR
WITH THE SHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THIS AFTN.
HEDGES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 180318
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
918 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO COAST PER WV SAT IMAGERY
TONIGHT. SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST NEVADA WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STEADILY MOVING INTO WESTERN IDAHO. BAND OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT STILL PRIMED TO SLIDE INTO EASTERN
IDAHO MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THOUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS COULD STILL SEE SOME RAINFALL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LATEST HRRR AND RUC/RAP RUNS PUSHING BAND OF CONVECTION NORTHEAST
THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO AHEAD OF THE FRONT. COULD SEE WINDS BEGIN TO
SHIFT WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTION BUT TRUE FRONT LAGS
BEHIND SLIGHTLY. AIRMASS NOT REALLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT OTHER THAN
THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST DESPITE LIGHTNING OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA AT THIS TIME WHERE BEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY LOCATED.
WINDS MORE OF A CONCERN ESPECIALLY LEANING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST NAM GUIDANCE NOW HITTING ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS AT 15Z WHICH APPEARS TO BE BEST SURFACE GRADIENT AND SHORTLY
BEHIND STRONGEST LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION. HAVE MADE A FEW
ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT
WOULD LIKE TO SEE LATEST GFS UPDATE BEFORE NUDGING GRIDS FURTHER
TOWARD ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY. DMH



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
WAS SHOWING A PAC DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE NE COASTAL WATERS WITH
ATTENDING MOISTURE LIFTING NE ACROSS WASHINGTON/OREGON AND THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WAVE PUSHING INLAND
OVERNIGHT WITH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADING INTO SE
IDAHO LATE TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN HIGHLANDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE FRONT PUSHES EAST. BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING...THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WYOMING AND NRN UTAH WITH A RAPIDLY DECREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE NUMERICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS AND A LOCAL STUDY SHOW A SUB-WIND ADVISORY EVENT
FOR FRIDAY WITHIN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...THUS NO HEADLINES WERE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME BUT THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS AND WILL MONITOR
DEVELOPMENTS FOR ANY REQUIRED UPDATES. A BROAD...RELATIVELY DRY WEST
FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH BREEZY WEST
WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN EACH AFTERNOON. HUSTON

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT MAINLY DRY AND
MILD CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. LARGE UPPER TROF AND COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AND EXPECT MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO DROP LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT TO BETWEEN 5 AND 6 THOUSAND FEET. EXPECT WARM
CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
WITH A COOL DOWN BEGINNING TUESDAY AND WELL BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
COOL AIR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GK

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SOME
10 TO 20 KNOT WINDS AT IDA. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST
IDAHO ON FRIDAY AND EXPECT WINDIER CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND LOWER CEILINGS. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AT TAF
SITES WITH SHOWERS MOST LIKELY AT IDA AND PIH. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AT BYI...PIH AND IDA ON FRIDAY. GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









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