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000
FXUS65 KPIH 232054
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
154 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A MINOR UPPER WAVE WILL
MOVE SE THRU ID TONIGHT SPREADING LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY THE MTNS.
EXPECTING 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
ONLY EXPECT ISOLD SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS
ELSEWHERE. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS UP OVER THE W COAST ON MON...
BRINGING AN END TO MOST OF THE PRECIP. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS MON MORN...DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTN.
THE BREAK DOES NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER MINOR WAVE MOVES DOWN THE
NW FLOW INTO ID BY TUE MORN. THIS SYSTEM...LIKE THE PREVIOUS
ONE...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MOST OF THE PRECIP IN THE MTNS DUE
TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE
CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS...AND LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. PRECIP TAPERS OFF BY WED MORN AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING PUSHES THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST . HEDGES

.LONG TERM...WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUN NIGHT. 500MB 5-WAVE PROG HAS
BEEN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...NEVER MIND FACTORING IN SHORTWAVES...THUS
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME HAS LOW CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY AFTER THU
NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE LONGWAVE FORECAST IS A TRANSITION FROM A
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO TROUGHING BY THE WEEKEND. THIS IS A STRONG
CHANGE FROM A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WEAKENING TO FLATTER ZONAL FLOW.
AND AS PREVIOUS SHIFT INDICATED...THERE HAVE BEEN LARGE CHANGES IN
THE GFS SOLUTION V. THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES WETTER
WITH THE FEATURES THAT COME IN AFTER THU NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE...AND AT THIS TIME OF YEAR MAKES FOR A VERY UNCERTAIN
SNOWFALL FORECAST...AS TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE LARGE BY FRI WITH
THE GFS MUCH WARMER AND THE ECMWF COLDER. THE BOTTOM LINE IS DO NOT
BE SURPRISED AS THE FORECAST ENTERS THE SHORT TERM FOR CHANGES.
HOWEVER...SAT AND SUN HAVE A THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR HOLIDAY
TRAVEL. I DO NOT SEE THE FORECAST BECOMING SUNNY AND DRY...BUT THE
DIFFERENCE IS MORE RAIN VERSUS SNOW...AND POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW.
MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES AN
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR CIG AND VSBY. THERE IS A WEAK FEATURE TONIGHT
THAT COULD GENERATE MOUNTAIN SHOWERS NEAR KPIH AND KIDA...BUT ON THE
WHOLE EXPECTING NOTHING BUT MID-LEVEL CIGS EARLY THIS EVENING. BY
THE LATE NIGHT...MARGINAL VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DIURNAL COOLING
AND THE CLEARING OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT JUST THE RIGHT TIME.
THERE IS A LARGE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...BUT THE NAM
HAS BEEN QUITE WRONG LATELY AND HAVE LESS TRUST IN IT THAN TWO DAYS
AGO. HAVE AVERAGED OUT THE CIG FORECAST BETWEEN THE PRODUCT SUITES.
VSBY SHOULD BE UNRESTRICTED...HELPED BY A STRONGER-THAN-NORMAL WIND
FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. NO WEATHER IMPACT EXPECTED UNDER THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AT KSUN. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 232054
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
154 PM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A MINOR UPPER WAVE WILL
MOVE SE THRU ID TONIGHT SPREADING LIGHT SNOW TO MAINLY THE MTNS.
EXPECTING 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
ONLY EXPECT ISOLD SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS
ELSEWHERE. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS UP OVER THE W COAST ON MON...
BRINGING AN END TO MOST OF THE PRECIP. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS MON MORN...DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTN.
THE BREAK DOES NOT LAST LONG AS ANOTHER MINOR WAVE MOVES DOWN THE
NW FLOW INTO ID BY TUE MORN. THIS SYSTEM...LIKE THE PREVIOUS
ONE...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MOST OF THE PRECIP IN THE MTNS DUE
TO UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IN THE
CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS...AND LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. PRECIP TAPERS OFF BY WED MORN AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING PUSHES THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST . HEDGES

.LONG TERM...WED NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUN NIGHT. 500MB 5-WAVE PROG HAS
BEEN SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...NEVER MIND FACTORING IN SHORTWAVES...THUS
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME HAS LOW CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY AFTER THU
NIGHT. CURRENTLY THE LONGWAVE FORECAST IS A TRANSITION FROM A
LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO TROUGHING BY THE WEEKEND. THIS IS A STRONG
CHANGE FROM A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WEAKENING TO FLATTER ZONAL FLOW.
AND AS PREVIOUS SHIFT INDICATED...THERE HAVE BEEN LARGE CHANGES IN
THE GFS SOLUTION V. THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES WETTER
WITH THE FEATURES THAT COME IN AFTER THU NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE...AND AT THIS TIME OF YEAR MAKES FOR A VERY UNCERTAIN
SNOWFALL FORECAST...AS TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE LARGE BY FRI WITH
THE GFS MUCH WARMER AND THE ECMWF COLDER. THE BOTTOM LINE IS DO NOT
BE SURPRISED AS THE FORECAST ENTERS THE SHORT TERM FOR CHANGES.
HOWEVER...SAT AND SUN HAVE A THREAT OF RAIN AND SNOW FOR HOLIDAY
TRAVEL. I DO NOT SEE THE FORECAST BECOMING SUNNY AND DRY...BUT THE
DIFFERENCE IS MORE RAIN VERSUS SNOW...AND POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW.
MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES AN
UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR CIG AND VSBY. THERE IS A WEAK FEATURE TONIGHT
THAT COULD GENERATE MOUNTAIN SHOWERS NEAR KPIH AND KIDA...BUT ON THE
WHOLE EXPECTING NOTHING BUT MID-LEVEL CIGS EARLY THIS EVENING. BY
THE LATE NIGHT...MARGINAL VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DIURNAL COOLING
AND THE CLEARING OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT JUST THE RIGHT TIME.
THERE IS A LARGE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM...BUT THE NAM
HAS BEEN QUITE WRONG LATELY AND HAVE LESS TRUST IN IT THAN TWO DAYS
AGO. HAVE AVERAGED OUT THE CIG FORECAST BETWEEN THE PRODUCT SUITES.
VSBY SHOULD BE UNRESTRICTED...HELPED BY A STRONGER-THAN-NORMAL WIND
FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT. NO WEATHER IMPACT EXPECTED UNDER THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AT KSUN. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 231047
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
347 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
THE DOMINANT PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW OF A
TRACE TO 2 INCHES IN NORTHWEST FLOW THIS MORNING BEHIND AN EXITING
SYSTEM. THE MAIN AREAS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND TO
AN LESSER EXTENT THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM ARE BRINGING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES...THOUGH THE SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS CURRENTLY HAS THE BIGGEST IMPACTS. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING ORTHOGRAPHIC SNOW IN MOIST NORTHWEST
FLOW TO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT A
TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND PAHSIMEROI MOUNTAINS AND THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE
OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW THAN SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
WYATT

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
PROMISE OF A GOOD HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGE AXIS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. BEYOND THAT...ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT. GFS FAVORS FLATTENING OF
RIDGE THANKSGIVING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
INTRUSION ACROSS THE REGION. ECMWF FAVORS STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM
CANADIAN LOW. BOTH MODELS CONSISTENT IN INTRODUCTION OF MOIST
PACIFIC FLOW INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TRENDED
TOWARD LOWER POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT BLENDED WITH GUIDANCE AND
CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS IN
CLOSER LINE WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...REMNANTS OF RECENT SYSTEM STILL IMPACTING EASTERN IDAHO.
NORTHWEST FLOW STILL PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWS EARLY THIS MORNING
PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST CORNER AND ANOTHER WEAK CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
PUSHING INTO SNAKE PLAIN FROM CENTRAL MTNS. LOW STRATUS IN PLACE AS
WELL ALONG INTERSTATES 15/86/84 FOR MVFR CEILINGS. TIGHT SFC
GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE THROUGH SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS STILL PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH LOCALIZED
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR MAINLY ORTHOGRAPHIC SNOWS IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. MODELS INDICATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL REINFORCE INVERSIONS IN PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE
PLAIN. KPIH ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE AND COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 231047
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
347 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
THE DOMINANT PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW OF A
TRACE TO 2 INCHES IN NORTHWEST FLOW THIS MORNING BEHIND AN EXITING
SYSTEM. THE MAIN AREAS WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND TO
AN LESSER EXTENT THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS
BEHIND THIS EXITING SYSTEM ARE BRINGING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES...THOUGH THE SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS CURRENTLY HAS THE BIGGEST IMPACTS. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING ORTHOGRAPHIC SNOW IN MOIST NORTHWEST
FLOW TO OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT A
TRACE TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND 2 TO 4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND PAHSIMEROI MOUNTAINS AND THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE
OF MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY BRINGING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW THAN SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
WYATT

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
PROMISE OF A GOOD HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY FOR WEDNESDAY WITH RIDGE AXIS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. BEYOND THAT...ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE WITH CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT. GFS FAVORS FLATTENING OF
RIDGE THANKSGIVING THROUGH SATURDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE
INTRUSION ACROSS THE REGION. ECMWF FAVORS STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM
CANADIAN LOW. BOTH MODELS CONSISTENT IN INTRODUCTION OF MOIST
PACIFIC FLOW INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TRENDED
TOWARD LOWER POPS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BUT BLENDED WITH GUIDANCE AND
CLIMO FOR THE WEEKEND. CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS IN
CLOSER LINE WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...REMNANTS OF RECENT SYSTEM STILL IMPACTING EASTERN IDAHO.
NORTHWEST FLOW STILL PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWS EARLY THIS MORNING
PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST CORNER AND ANOTHER WEAK CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
PUSHING INTO SNAKE PLAIN FROM CENTRAL MTNS. LOW STRATUS IN PLACE AS
WELL ALONG INTERSTATES 15/86/84 FOR MVFR CEILINGS. TIGHT SFC
GRADIENT STILL IN PLACE THROUGH SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS STILL PRODUCING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH LOCALIZED
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE FOR MAINLY ORTHOGRAPHIC SNOWS IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. MODELS INDICATE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL REINFORCE INVERSIONS IN PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE
PLAIN. KPIH ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE AND COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 230147
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
646 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO
EXPIRE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW HAS ENDED
ALTHOUGH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES TO ISLAND PARK/TETON AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
1 TO 2 INCHES TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING. WINDS
SPEEDS HAVE ALSO DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITIERIA. THUS HAVE EXPIRED
THOSE ADVISORIES. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

STRONG ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE PAC NW...WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. PRECIP
DIMINISHES TONIGHT TO SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLD SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE MTNS OVERNIGHT...WITH AROUND A HALF INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT BY LATE EVENING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROF...WINDS TURN TO THE NW. WITH PAC MOISTURE STILL IN
THE FLOW... LIGHT SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS DUE TO UPSLOPE
FLOW. PRECIP DIMINISHES ON MON AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE W
COAST. ANOTHER MINOR WAVE IN THE NW FLOW ON TUE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY TO THE MTNS. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT NIGHT. 500MB LONG WAVE PROG
INDICATES HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO REMAIN IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...KEEPING A MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNTIL THE LAST 36 HOURS
OR SO AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES. SO THE FIRST PART OF
THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE COLD AND SOMEWHAT DRY...BUT THE LAST 26 HOURS
OR SO HAS A BETTER POTENTIAL OF MOIST STORMS BREAKING DOWN THE
WEAKENED RIDGE AND PUSHING THROUGH THE GEM STATE. AND THAT IS
EXACTLY WHAT GUIDANCE HAS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN MORE
PRECIPITATION IN MINOR WAVES THAN A VERY DRY ECMWF. THERE IS ONE
EXCEPTION.  EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TUE NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IS
FINISHING UP JUST BRUSHING EASTERN IDAHO WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION THAT NIGHT...AND THE ECMWF IS WETTER.

THURSDAY IS THE CRITICAL DAY AS IT IS THANKSGIVING. IN EITHER
GUIDANCE PRODUCT...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR SOUTHERN
IDAHO...ALTHOUGH TRAVEL THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA MAY HAVE ITS
PROBLEMS. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. MESSICK
&&

.AVIATION...TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH TODAY IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAKING A COMPLICATED AND LOW-CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE EARLY EVENING WONT ALLOW MUCH
RELIEF...BUT THE SECOND ONE WILL DEFINITELY TURN KSUN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AND ALLOW THIS AIRDROME TO SCATTER OUT WITH LITTLE
PROBLEMS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW. THESE FRONTS ARE DEFINITELY DISPLAYING THEIR POWER
AS THE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AT KSUN WHILE BY
LATE AFTERNOON THEY SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST A WESTERLY IF NOT
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF WHAT HAPPENS ON A
SUNNY SUMMER DAY. BUT UNTIL THE WIND SWITCH...KSUN WILL BE CLOSED
WITH SNOW AND LOW CIGS.

FOR THE VALLEY AIRDROMES THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL 23/00Z. THE MARGINAL VFR CIGS THOUGH SHOULD
CONTINUE LONG AFTER THAT. AND EVEN LATER KBYI...KIDA...AND KPIH ARE
ALL EXPECTED BY THE NAM TO HAVE IFR CONDITIONS ONCE THE WIND
SUBSIDES AND THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN TIME FOR MORNING OPENING. GFS AND NAM ARE AT ODDS ON THE
CIGS...WITH THE NAM BEING THE USUAL PESSIMIST COMPARED TO THE GFS.
WITH THE ABUNDANT RAIN SO FAR...AND THE BETTER TEMPERATURE
VERIFICATION THIS MORNING ON THE NAM...HAVE DECIDED TO BELIEVE THE
CIG CRASH FOR THE MORNING HOURS. FINALLY...WHILE WIND IS
STRONG...LITTLE IMPACT AS IT IS RIGHT DOWN THE RUNWAYS FOR THE THREE
VALLEY AIRPORTS. MESSICK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS65 KPIH 230147
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
646 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO
EXPIRE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW HAS ENDED
ALTHOUGH A WEAK SYSTEM PASSING OVERHEAD TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BRING AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES TO ISLAND PARK/TETON AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
1 TO 2 INCHES TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING. WINDS
SPEEDS HAVE ALSO DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITIERIA. THUS HAVE EXPIRED
THOSE ADVISORIES. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

STRONG ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE PAC NW...WITH THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. PRECIP
DIMINISHES TONIGHT TO SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLD SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE MTNS OVERNIGHT...WITH AROUND A HALF INCH POSSIBLE IN THE
VALLEYS. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT BY LATE EVENING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROF...WINDS TURN TO THE NW. WITH PAC MOISTURE STILL IN
THE FLOW... LIGHT SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS DUE TO UPSLOPE
FLOW. PRECIP DIMINISHES ON MON AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE W
COAST. ANOTHER MINOR WAVE IN THE NW FLOW ON TUE WILL BRING MORE
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY TO THE MTNS. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT NIGHT. 500MB LONG WAVE PROG
INDICATES HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO REMAIN IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...KEEPING A MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNTIL THE LAST 36 HOURS
OR SO AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES. SO THE FIRST PART OF
THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE COLD AND SOMEWHAT DRY...BUT THE LAST 26 HOURS
OR SO HAS A BETTER POTENTIAL OF MOIST STORMS BREAKING DOWN THE
WEAKENED RIDGE AND PUSHING THROUGH THE GEM STATE. AND THAT IS
EXACTLY WHAT GUIDANCE HAS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN MORE
PRECIPITATION IN MINOR WAVES THAN A VERY DRY ECMWF. THERE IS ONE
EXCEPTION.  EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TUE NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IS
FINISHING UP JUST BRUSHING EASTERN IDAHO WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION THAT NIGHT...AND THE ECMWF IS WETTER.

THURSDAY IS THE CRITICAL DAY AS IT IS THANKSGIVING. IN EITHER
GUIDANCE PRODUCT...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR SOUTHERN
IDAHO...ALTHOUGH TRAVEL THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA MAY HAVE ITS
PROBLEMS. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. MESSICK
&&

.AVIATION...TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH TODAY IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAKING A COMPLICATED AND LOW-CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE EARLY EVENING WONT ALLOW MUCH
RELIEF...BUT THE SECOND ONE WILL DEFINITELY TURN KSUN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AND ALLOW THIS AIRDROME TO SCATTER OUT WITH LITTLE
PROBLEMS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW. THESE FRONTS ARE DEFINITELY DISPLAYING THEIR POWER
AS THE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AT KSUN WHILE BY
LATE AFTERNOON THEY SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST A WESTERLY IF NOT
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF WHAT HAPPENS ON A
SUNNY SUMMER DAY. BUT UNTIL THE WIND SWITCH...KSUN WILL BE CLOSED
WITH SNOW AND LOW CIGS.

FOR THE VALLEY AIRDROMES THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL 23/00Z. THE MARGINAL VFR CIGS THOUGH SHOULD
CONTINUE LONG AFTER THAT. AND EVEN LATER KBYI...KIDA...AND KPIH ARE
ALL EXPECTED BY THE NAM TO HAVE IFR CONDITIONS ONCE THE WIND
SUBSIDES AND THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN TIME FOR MORNING OPENING. GFS AND NAM ARE AT ODDS ON THE
CIGS...WITH THE NAM BEING THE USUAL PESSIMIST COMPARED TO THE GFS.
WITH THE ABUNDANT RAIN SO FAR...AND THE BETTER TEMPERATURE
VERIFICATION THIS MORNING ON THE NAM...HAVE DECIDED TO BELIEVE THE
CIG CRASH FOR THE MORNING HOURS. FINALLY...WHILE WIND IS
STRONG...LITTLE IMPACT AS IT IS RIGHT DOWN THE RUNWAYS FOR THE THREE
VALLEY AIRPORTS. MESSICK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KPIH 222031
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
131 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG ZONAL FLOW
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE PAC NW...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. PRECIP DIMINISHES
TONIGHT TO SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE VALLEYS. A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS
OVERNIGHT...WITH AROUND A HALF INCH POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS.
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT BY LATE EVENING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF...
WINDS TURN TO THE NW. WITH PAC MOISTURE STILL IN THE FLOW... LIGHT
SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. PRECIP
DIMINISHES ON MON AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE W COAST.
ANOTHER MINOR WAVE IN THE NW FLOW ON TUE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY TO THE MTNS. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT NIGHT. 500MB LONG WAVE PROG
INDICATES HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO REMAIN IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...KEEPING A MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNTIL THE LAST 36 HOURS
OR SO AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES. SO THE FIRST PART OF
THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE COLD AND SOMEWHAT DRY...BUT THE LAST 26 HOURS
OR SO HAS A BETTER POTENTIAL OF MOIST STORMS BREAKING DOWN THE
WEAKENED RIDGE AND PUSHING THROUGH THE GEM STATE. AND THAT IS
EXACTLY WHAT GUIDANCE HAS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN MORE
PRECIPITATION IN MINOR WAVES THAN A VERY DRY ECMWF. THERE IS ONE
EXCEPTION.  EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TUE NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IS
FINISHING UP JUST BRUSHING EASTERN IDAHO WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION THAT NIGHT...AND THE ECMWF IS WETTER.

THURSDAY IS THE CRITICAL DAY AS IT IS THANKSGIVING. IN EITHER
GUIDANCE PRODUCT...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR SOUTHERN
IDAHO...ALTHOUGH TRAVEL THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA MAY HAVE ITS
PROBLEMS. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH TODAY IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAKING A COMPLICATED AND LOW-CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE EARLY EVENING WONT ALLOW MUCH
RELIEF...BUT THE SECOND ONE WILL DEFINITELY TURN KSUN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AND ALLOW THIS AIRDROME TO SCATTER OUT WITH LITTLE
PROBLEMS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW. THESE FRONTS ARE DEFINITELY DISPLAYING THEIR POWER
AS THE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AT KSUN WHILE BY
LATE AFTERNOON THEY SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST A WESTERLY IF NOT
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF WHAT HAPPENS ON A
SUNNY SUMMER DAY. BUT UNTIL THE WIND SWITCH...KSUN WILL BE CLOSED
WITH SNOW AND LOW CIGS.

FOR THE VALLEY AIRDROMES THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL 23/00Z. THE MARGINAL VFR CIGS THOUGH SHOULD
CONTINUE LONG AFTER THAT. AND EVEN LATER KBYI...KIDA...AND KPIH ARE
ALL EXPECTED BY THE NAM TO HAVE IFR CONDITIONS ONCE THE WIND
SUBSIDES AND THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN TIME FOR MORNING OPENING. GFS AND NAM ARE AT ODDS ON THE
CIGS...WITH THE NAM BEING THE USUAL PESSIMIST COMPARED TO THE GFS.
WITH THE ABUNDANT RAIN SO FAR...AND THE BETTER TEMPERATURE
VERIFICATION THIS MORNING ON THE NAM...HAVE DECIDED TO BELIEVE THE
CIG CRASH FOR THE MORNING HOURS. FINALLY...WHILE WIND IS
STRONG...LITTLE IMPACT AS IT IS RIGHT DOWN THE RUNWAYS FOR THE THREE
VALLEY AIRPORTS. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ017-020>022.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ019-023-025.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 6000
FEET FOR THE IDZ022-032.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 222031
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
131 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG ZONAL FLOW
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE PAC NW...WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. PRECIP DIMINISHES
TONIGHT TO SCATTERED MTN SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE VALLEYS. A FEW MORE INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS
OVERNIGHT...WITH AROUND A HALF INCH POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEYS.
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT BY LATE EVENING. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF...
WINDS TURN TO THE NW. WITH PAC MOISTURE STILL IN THE FLOW... LIGHT
SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE MTNS DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW. PRECIP
DIMINISHES ON MON AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE W COAST.
ANOTHER MINOR WAVE IN THE NW FLOW ON TUE WILL BRING MORE LIGHT
SNOW MAINLY TO THE MTNS. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...TUE NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SAT NIGHT. 500MB LONG WAVE PROG
INDICATES HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO REMAIN IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...KEEPING A MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UNTIL THE LAST 36 HOURS
OR SO AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES. SO THE FIRST PART OF
THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE COLD AND SOMEWHAT DRY...BUT THE LAST 26 HOURS
OR SO HAS A BETTER POTENTIAL OF MOIST STORMS BREAKING DOWN THE
WEAKENED RIDGE AND PUSHING THROUGH THE GEM STATE. AND THAT IS
EXACTLY WHAT GUIDANCE HAS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS BRINGS IN MORE
PRECIPITATION IN MINOR WAVES THAN A VERY DRY ECMWF. THERE IS ONE
EXCEPTION.  EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TUE NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE IS
FINISHING UP JUST BRUSHING EASTERN IDAHO WITH SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION THAT NIGHT...AND THE ECMWF IS WETTER.

THURSDAY IS THE CRITICAL DAY AS IT IS THANKSGIVING. IN EITHER
GUIDANCE PRODUCT...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS VERY GOOD FOR SOUTHERN
IDAHO...ALTHOUGH TRAVEL THROUGH WESTERN MONTANA MAY HAVE ITS
PROBLEMS. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND PROBABLY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH TODAY IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MAKING A COMPLICATED AND LOW-CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. A BRIEF BREAK DURING THE EARLY EVENING WONT ALLOW MUCH
RELIEF...BUT THE SECOND ONE WILL DEFINITELY TURN KSUN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AND ALLOW THIS AIRDROME TO SCATTER OUT WITH LITTLE
PROBLEMS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW. THESE FRONTS ARE DEFINITELY DISPLAYING THEIR POWER
AS THE SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE MORNING AT KSUN WHILE BY
LATE AFTERNOON THEY SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST A WESTERLY IF NOT
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF WHAT HAPPENS ON A
SUNNY SUMMER DAY. BUT UNTIL THE WIND SWITCH...KSUN WILL BE CLOSED
WITH SNOW AND LOW CIGS.

FOR THE VALLEY AIRDROMES THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL 23/00Z. THE MARGINAL VFR CIGS THOUGH SHOULD
CONTINUE LONG AFTER THAT. AND EVEN LATER KBYI...KIDA...AND KPIH ARE
ALL EXPECTED BY THE NAM TO HAVE IFR CONDITIONS ONCE THE WIND
SUBSIDES AND THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN TIME FOR MORNING OPENING. GFS AND NAM ARE AT ODDS ON THE
CIGS...WITH THE NAM BEING THE USUAL PESSIMIST COMPARED TO THE GFS.
WITH THE ABUNDANT RAIN SO FAR...AND THE BETTER TEMPERATURE
VERIFICATION THIS MORNING ON THE NAM...HAVE DECIDED TO BELIEVE THE
CIG CRASH FOR THE MORNING HOURS. FINALLY...WHILE WIND IS
STRONG...LITTLE IMPACT AS IT IS RIGHT DOWN THE RUNWAYS FOR THE THREE
VALLEY AIRPORTS. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ017-020>022.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ019-023-025.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 6000
FEET FOR THE IDZ022-032.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 221047
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
347 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPIATION HAS MOVED
IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF OUR SOUTHERN AREAS BELOW
6000 FEET BRINGING RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. THIS MOIST PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
CONTINUED FOR THESE AREAS. ALSO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN CONTINUED FOR 4 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE LOST
RIVER/PAHSIMEROI MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS ABOVE 6000
FEET. EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS TODAY STARTING FROM THE
SOUTH BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY
FOR WINDS AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH HAS BEEN
CONTINUED FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND THE
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND IS VALID FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MST TODAY. VERY
LITTLE VALLEY SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY BELOW 6000 FEET.

THIS EVENING SNOW LEVELS START TO DROP BACK TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.
LATE SUNDAY A MOIST TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BRING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND 1
TO 2 INCHES OF VALLEY SNOW. EXPECT BREEZY TO MODERATE WINDS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WYATT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH
MED RANGE. DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS PRECIP CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND PROGRESSIVELY PUSHING NORTH TOWARD THE DIVIDE TUE/TUE
NIGHT. GFS MAINTAINS DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE DIVIDE WED/WED
NIGHT...THEN SAGS FEATURE INTO THE REST OF EAST IDAHO AND WEAKENS IT
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. ECMWF HOLDING ON TO THE RIDGE INSTEAD...BUT
BOTH MODELS DEPICTING RIDGE IN PLACE FRI/SAT AHEAD OF NEXT PACIFIC
FEATURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. INTERESTINGLY...MORE OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION. HELD ON TO WEAK POPS
THROUGH MID WEEK THEN DRIED THE REGION OUT INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...SO NUDGED TEMPS
ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST LEVELS WHILE STILL REMAINING COLDER THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...PRECIPITATION BEGINNING ITS MARCH ACROSS EAST IDAHO THIS
MORNING. SNOW ALREADY FALLING IN CENTRAL MTNS AND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. CONSOLIDATED PRECIP SHIELD WORKING
INTO THE SNAKE PLAIN PER RADAR/SAT IMAGERY AND EXPECT TO ENCOMPASS
MOST OF THE AREA BY 12Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS.  WARMING STILL IN PLACE
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS PARTICULARLY SOUTH HALF OF REGION SO EXPECT RAIN
AT KBYI/KPIH ALL DAY AND A MIX AT KIDA AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR. KSUN DOES APPEAR TO REMAIN ALL SNOW
AT THIS TIME. SFC GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT
WITH COLD FRONT SO WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS ROUGHLY 20KTS SUSTAINED AT
BOTH KPIH/KIDA. MAIN PRECIP BAND SHIFTS TO SOUTHERN/EASTERN
HIGHLANDS THIS AFTN AND SHOULD SEE DROP OFF OF PRECIP IN SNAKE PLAIN
AND CENTRAL MTNS BY THIS TIME. CEILINGS IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR. WINDS
SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AS FAST MOVING SYSTEM SHIFTS WELL
EAST...AND ANOTHER WEAK BATCH OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. KSUN LIKELY TO DROP BACK TO MVFR WITH POTENTIAL
FOR IFR AGAIN AFTER 06Z. DMH


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
IDZ017-020>022.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ019-023-025.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 6000
FEET FOR THE IDZ022-032.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON IDZ018-031.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KPIH 221047
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
347 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPIATION HAS MOVED
IN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF OUR SOUTHERN AREAS BELOW
6000 FEET BRINGING RAIN FOR THESE AREAS. THIS MOIST PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. WINTER WEATHER WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
CONTINUED FOR THESE AREAS. ALSO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN CONTINUED FOR 4 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE LOST
RIVER/PAHSIMEROI MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS ABOVE 6000
FEET. EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS TODAY STARTING FROM THE
SOUTH BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY
FOR WINDS AROUND 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH HAS BEEN
CONTINUED FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND THE
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND IS VALID FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MST TODAY. VERY
LITTLE VALLEY SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY BELOW 6000 FEET.

THIS EVENING SNOW LEVELS START TO DROP BACK TO THE VALLEY FLOOR.
LATE SUNDAY A MOIST TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BRING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND 1
TO 2 INCHES OF VALLEY SNOW. EXPECT BREEZY TO MODERATE WINDS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WYATT

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH
MED RANGE. DIRTY NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS PRECIP CONFINED TO HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND PROGRESSIVELY PUSHING NORTH TOWARD THE DIVIDE TUE/TUE
NIGHT. GFS MAINTAINS DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE DIVIDE WED/WED
NIGHT...THEN SAGS FEATURE INTO THE REST OF EAST IDAHO AND WEAKENS IT
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. ECMWF HOLDING ON TO THE RIDGE INSTEAD...BUT
BOTH MODELS DEPICTING RIDGE IN PLACE FRI/SAT AHEAD OF NEXT PACIFIC
FEATURE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. INTERESTINGLY...MORE OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION. HELD ON TO WEAK POPS
THROUGH MID WEEK THEN DRIED THE REGION OUT INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE...SO NUDGED TEMPS
ABOVE PREVIOUS FORECAST LEVELS WHILE STILL REMAINING COLDER THAN
CURRENT GUIDANCE. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...PRECIPITATION BEGINNING ITS MARCH ACROSS EAST IDAHO THIS
MORNING. SNOW ALREADY FALLING IN CENTRAL MTNS AND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. CONSOLIDATED PRECIP SHIELD WORKING
INTO THE SNAKE PLAIN PER RADAR/SAT IMAGERY AND EXPECT TO ENCOMPASS
MOST OF THE AREA BY 12Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS.  WARMING STILL IN PLACE
AT LOWER ELEVATIONS PARTICULARLY SOUTH HALF OF REGION SO EXPECT RAIN
AT KBYI/KPIH ALL DAY AND A MIX AT KIDA AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR. KSUN DOES APPEAR TO REMAIN ALL SNOW
AT THIS TIME. SFC GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON COINCIDENT
WITH COLD FRONT SO WILL KEEP GUSTY WINDS ROUGHLY 20KTS SUSTAINED AT
BOTH KPIH/KIDA. MAIN PRECIP BAND SHIFTS TO SOUTHERN/EASTERN
HIGHLANDS THIS AFTN AND SHOULD SEE DROP OFF OF PRECIP IN SNAKE PLAIN
AND CENTRAL MTNS BY THIS TIME. CEILINGS IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR. WINDS
SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AS FAST MOVING SYSTEM SHIFTS WELL
EAST...AND ANOTHER WEAK BATCH OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. KSUN LIKELY TO DROP BACK TO MVFR WITH POTENTIAL
FOR IFR AGAIN AFTER 06Z. DMH


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
IDZ017-020>022.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING IDZ019-023-025.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING ABOVE 6000
FEET FOR THE IDZ022-032.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON IDZ018-031.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 212009
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
109 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
MOIST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO START AFFECTING
SOUTHEAST IDAHO TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS WITH ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE LOST RIVER PAHSIMEROI
AREA AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS ABOVE 6 THOUSAND FEET. SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD
EAST QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT HAZARDOUS MOUNTAIN TRAVEL TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.  THINK THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WILL SEE
MOSTLY RAIN ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AT ONSET
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT WILL CHANGE TO RAIN. IDAHO FALLS AND
REXBURG MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER.
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN SATURDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING TO A WEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING STRONG.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
SEVERAL WEAK WAVES IN THIS FLOW WILL KEEP PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
GOING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOST ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. WILL HAVE DRIER
CONDITIONS MONDAY.  SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AFTER THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST
SO NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTER SOME MILDER CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
GK

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WE ARE NOT MAKING TOO
MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE TRYING TO BUILD A STRONGER RIDGE IN FOR MIDWEEK...WHICH
BRING A PRETTY DRY PATTERN FOR EASTERN IDAHO EXCEPT FOR SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW NEAR ISLAND PARK. IF YOU LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS...THEY DEPICT AN OVERALL WEAKER RIDGE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW. SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL FORECASTS WITHIN THE ENSEMBLES
ACTUALLY LOOK LIKE THE ECMWF A FEW DAYS AGO AND ITS FORECAST FOR
VERY COLD CONDITIONS. WHILE WE THOUGHT THAT MIGHT BE TOO
EXTREME...IT JUST SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE OR IN THIS CASE
LACK OF IT ON HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING.
WE DID TRY AND DRY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF EASTERN IDAHO OUT A BIT ON
TUESDAY. OTHER THAN THAT...WE KEEP RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS ALL THE WAY THROUGH.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER FOR NOW. BOTTOM
LINE...IF YOU HAVE PLANS TO BE TRAVELING OR OUTDOORS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS MAKE SURE YOU CHECK THE LATEST FORECASTS. THE PICTURE
WILL DEFINITELY BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL START TO DETERIORATE LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS OUR ADVERTISED STORM MOVES INTO EASTERN IDAHO. WE
SHOULD CEILINGS DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 7-11Z/MIDNIGHT-4AM AT ALL TAF SITES.
KBYI WILL LIKELY NOT SEE SNOWFALL AT ALL AND WILL BE RAIN THROUGHOUT
THE EVENT. KPIH AND KIDA MAY INITIALLY SEE SNOW AT THE VERY
BEGINNING OF IT...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BEFORE 15Z/8AM AS WARM AIR
PUSHES QUICKLY UP THE PLAIN. KSUN WILL TRY TO SWITCH TO A MIX
BETWEEN 13-15Z/7-9AM.  THEY WILL LIKELY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR STARTS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE MAY BE OUT OF
THERE BY THEN. WINDS WILL BE A BIG STORY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
AFFECTING THE PLAIN TAF SITES. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-35KTS AND GUSTS
OF 40-50KTS ARE FORECAST STARTING NEAR SUNRISE AND LASTING THROUGH
THE DAY. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY IDZ017-020-021.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM MST SATURDAY
IDZ019-023-025.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM MST SATURDAY ABOVE
6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ022-032.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
SATURDAY IDZ018-031.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 212009
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
109 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
MOIST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM STILL ON TRACK TO START AFFECTING
SOUTHEAST IDAHO TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS WITH ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE LOST RIVER PAHSIMEROI
AREA AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS ABOVE 6 THOUSAND FEET. SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD
EAST QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT HAZARDOUS MOUNTAIN TRAVEL TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.  THINK THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WILL SEE
MOSTLY RAIN ALTHOUGH COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW AT ONSET
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT WILL CHANGE TO RAIN. IDAHO FALLS AND
REXBURG MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER.
HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN SATURDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING TO A WEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING STRONG.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
SEVERAL WEAK WAVES IN THIS FLOW WILL KEEP PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
GOING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOST ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS NEAR THE WYOMING BORDER. WILL HAVE DRIER
CONDITIONS MONDAY.  SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO VALLEY FLOORS EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING AFTER THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST
SO NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTER SOME MILDER CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
GK

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WE ARE NOT MAKING TOO
MANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE TRYING TO BUILD A STRONGER RIDGE IN FOR MIDWEEK...WHICH
BRING A PRETTY DRY PATTERN FOR EASTERN IDAHO EXCEPT FOR SOME
MOUNTAIN SNOW NEAR ISLAND PARK. IF YOU LOOK AT THE ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS...THEY DEPICT AN OVERALL WEAKER RIDGE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW. SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL FORECASTS WITHIN THE ENSEMBLES
ACTUALLY LOOK LIKE THE ECMWF A FEW DAYS AGO AND ITS FORECAST FOR
VERY COLD CONDITIONS. WHILE WE THOUGHT THAT MIGHT BE TOO
EXTREME...IT JUST SHOWS THE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE OR IN THIS CASE
LACK OF IT ON HOW THINGS WILL PLAY OUT HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING.
WE DID TRY AND DRY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF EASTERN IDAHO OUT A BIT ON
TUESDAY. OTHER THAN THAT...WE KEEP RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS ALL THE WAY THROUGH.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...CHANCES ARE MUCH LOWER FOR NOW. BOTTOM
LINE...IF YOU HAVE PLANS TO BE TRAVELING OR OUTDOORS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS MAKE SURE YOU CHECK THE LATEST FORECASTS. THE PICTURE
WILL DEFINITELY BECOME MORE CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL START TO DETERIORATE LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS OUR ADVERTISED STORM MOVES INTO EASTERN IDAHO. WE
SHOULD CEILINGS DROP TO AT LEAST MVFR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 7-11Z/MIDNIGHT-4AM AT ALL TAF SITES.
KBYI WILL LIKELY NOT SEE SNOWFALL AT ALL AND WILL BE RAIN THROUGHOUT
THE EVENT. KPIH AND KIDA MAY INITIALLY SEE SNOW AT THE VERY
BEGINNING OF IT...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BEFORE 15Z/8AM AS WARM AIR
PUSHES QUICKLY UP THE PLAIN. KSUN WILL TRY TO SWITCH TO A MIX
BETWEEN 13-15Z/7-9AM.  THEY WILL LIKELY CHANGE BACK TO SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR STARTS TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MOISTURE MAY BE OUT OF
THERE BY THEN. WINDS WILL BE A BIG STORY AS WELL...ESPECIALLY
AFFECTING THE PLAIN TAF SITES. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-35KTS AND GUSTS
OF 40-50KTS ARE FORECAST STARTING NEAR SUNRISE AND LASTING THROUGH
THE DAY. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM MST SATURDAY IDZ017-020-021.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM MST SATURDAY
IDZ019-023-025.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM MST SATURDAY ABOVE
6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ022-032.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
SATURDAY IDZ018-031.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 211029
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
329 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS PATCHY FREEZING
FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN. EXPECT CLEARING BY EARLY TO MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM.

FRIDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT A MOIST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM STARTS
MOVING INTO THE AREA. EXPECT 10 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A
WINTER WEATHER WARNING. ALSO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI
MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS ABOVE 6000 FEET. EXPECT
MODERATE WINDS SATURDAY. A WIND ADVISORY FOR WINDS AROUND 30 TO 40
MPH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON VALLEY SNOW
AMOUNTS. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES START COLD ENOUGH FOR VALLEY SNOW
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT QUICKLY RISE TO AROUND 6000 FEET JUST
AS PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. AS A RESULT...VERY LITTLE VALLEY SNOW
IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AT THIS POINT.  SATURDAY
EVENING SNOW LEVELS START TO DROP BACK TO THE VALLEY FLOOR. LATE
SUNDAY A MOIST TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF VALLEY
SNOW. WYATT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. EAST IDAHO UNDER WEAKENING
INFLUENCE OF DEEP TROUGH OVER CENTRAL STATES WITH UPPER RIDGE TRYING
TO BUILD ALONG COAST. MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THREAT OF PRECIP
MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH FOCUS
CONTINUING TO SHIFT NORTH AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES. MODEL AGREEMENT FALLS
APART WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WITH ECMWF FAVORING RIDGE AXIS OVER EAST
IDAHO BY THURSDAY AND GFS CONTINUING TO FAVOR CONTINUED/STRENGTHENED
INFLUENCE OF NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH AND MOIST DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
THE REGION. CONTINUED EARLIER FCST TREND WITH POPS NEAR CLIMO AND
FAVORING NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS FAVOR BIAS CORRECTED
BLEND...WHICH IS ON THE COLD SIDE OF CURRENT GUIDANCE. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...EARLY MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO
POCKETS OF STRATUS AND FOG...MUCH OF IT OBSCURED BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED IFR/LIFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. NEXT
STRONGER SYSTEM ARRIVES TONIGHT AND SPREADS PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION
MAINLY 06Z-12Z SAT. RETURN OF AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS MOST AREAS
AFTER 06Z. WARMING AT LOW LEVELS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SO SNOW LEVELS
RISE ABOVE VALLEY FLOORS AND PRECIP LIKELY RAIN AT KPIH/KBYI EARLY
SATURDAY. DMH


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM MST SATURDAY ABOVE
6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ022-032.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM MST SATURDAY
IDZ019-023-025.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
SATURDAY IDZ018-031.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 211029
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
329 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS PATCHY FREEZING
FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN. EXPECT CLEARING BY EARLY TO MID MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM.

FRIDAY NIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT A MOIST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM STARTS
MOVING INTO THE AREA. EXPECT 10 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A
WINTER WEATHER WARNING. ALSO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE LOST RIVER/PAHSIMEROI
MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS ABOVE 6000 FEET. EXPECT
MODERATE WINDS SATURDAY. A WIND ADVISORY FOR WINDS AROUND 30 TO 40
MPH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON VALLEY SNOW
AMOUNTS. CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES START COLD ENOUGH FOR VALLEY SNOW
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BUT QUICKLY RISE TO AROUND 6000 FEET JUST
AS PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. AS A RESULT...VERY LITTLE VALLEY SNOW
IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AT THIS POINT.  SATURDAY
EVENING SNOW LEVELS START TO DROP BACK TO THE VALLEY FLOOR. LATE
SUNDAY A MOIST TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING 2 TO 4 INCHES OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF VALLEY
SNOW. WYATT

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. EAST IDAHO UNDER WEAKENING
INFLUENCE OF DEEP TROUGH OVER CENTRAL STATES WITH UPPER RIDGE TRYING
TO BUILD ALONG COAST. MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPS THREAT OF PRECIP
MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH FOCUS
CONTINUING TO SHIFT NORTH AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES. MODEL AGREEMENT FALLS
APART WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WITH ECMWF FAVORING RIDGE AXIS OVER EAST
IDAHO BY THURSDAY AND GFS CONTINUING TO FAVOR CONTINUED/STRENGTHENED
INFLUENCE OF NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH AND MOIST DEFORMATION ZONE OVER
THE REGION. CONTINUED EARLIER FCST TREND WITH POPS NEAR CLIMO AND
FAVORING NORTHERN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS FAVOR BIAS CORRECTED
BLEND...WHICH IS ON THE COLD SIDE OF CURRENT GUIDANCE. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...EARLY MORNING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO
POCKETS OF STRATUS AND FOG...MUCH OF IT OBSCURED BY MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED IFR/LIFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. NEXT
STRONGER SYSTEM ARRIVES TONIGHT AND SPREADS PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION
MAINLY 06Z-12Z SAT. RETURN OF AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS MOST AREAS
AFTER 06Z. WARMING AT LOW LEVELS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT SO SNOW LEVELS
RISE ABOVE VALLEY FLOORS AND PRECIP LIKELY RAIN AT KPIH/KBYI EARLY
SATURDAY. DMH


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM MST SATURDAY ABOVE
6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ022-032.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM MST SATURDAY
IDZ019-023-025.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
SATURDAY IDZ018-031.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 210222
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
722 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO
REDUCE CLOUD COVER TEMPORARILY AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. WILL SEE
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS
THE NEXT PAC DISTURBANCE DIGS SSE THROUGH CALIFORNIA. SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH NO
CHANGES AT THIS POINT. LATEST RUNS HAVE SLOWED DOWN ONSET A BIT
BUT STILL THINK AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN IN
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WILL BE MAINLY A RAIN EVENT IN EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY AND SNAKE PLAIN AS WET BULB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT THIS
SOLUTION. STILL A QUICK SYSTEM AS WELL WITH 18Z NAM NOW ENDING
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AS WELL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON EVEN ALONG
WYOMING BORDER. WITH THE QUICK MOVEMENT TRENDED IN GRIDS TO CUT
BACK IN SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY BUT KEPT 8 TO 12 INCHES IN AMOUNTS
IN HIGH ELEVATIONS IN WATCH WORDING WITH GUSTY WINDS STILL
EXPECTED DURING EVENT FROM SOUTH BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN
WESTERLY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW MAY CONTINUE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
MAINLY IN MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUING. GK

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THE GFS AND ECMWF IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MUCH OF REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING SATURDAY`S EVENT. A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE OFF ON TIMING. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME PROLONGED PERIODS OF
SNOW AND WIND. THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND BREEZY AND
ONLY SEE RAIN OR SNOW WHEN ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS CROSS THE STATE. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY AGAIN. THE GFS
MAINTAINS A SLOW BUILDING OF THE RIDGE INTO THE COASTAL STATES AND
EVENTUALLY OVER IDAHO. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF STILLS SHOWS A
STRONG SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA BRINGING A RETURN OF
MUCH COLDER AND WET WEATHER. THE ENSEMBLES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
BUT SOME SOLUTIONS SUPPORT SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE EC...WHILE MOST
FAVOR A FLATTER RIDGE THAT STAYS TO THE WEST. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
KEPT NORTHWEST FLOW AND RAIN/SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN IDAHO.  WE
FOLLOWED SUIT AND STAYED THE COURSE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE MAY
BE DEALING AT THE VERY LEAST WITH SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FOR MANY OF OUR
MOUNTAIN PASSES HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING. DMH/KEYES
&&

.AVIATION...A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN IDAHO
THROUGH TOMORROW. TODAY`S WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT THE ISSUE OF VERY
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN INTO THIS EVENING. THAT SAID...IT MAY
BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE MAJOR IMPACTS. WE HAVE VCSH AT ALL SITE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME LOW CLOUDS SLOWING WORKING THEIR
WAY INTO THE MAGIC VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY UP THE SNAKE PLAIN. WE ARE
ALREADY SEEING MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR UPSTREAM IN SEVERAL SPOTS...SO WE
SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE AT LEAST MVFR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING
BEFORE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT. WHILE NOT IN THE FORECAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OVERNIGHT COMING FROM THE
STRATUS DECK. FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING IDZ019-022-023-025-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IDZ018-031.
&&

$$












000
FXUS65 KPIH 210222
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
722 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO
REDUCE CLOUD COVER TEMPORARILY AND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. WILL SEE
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AS
THE NEXT PAC DISTURBANCE DIGS SSE THROUGH CALIFORNIA. SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS WITH NO
CHANGES AT THIS POINT. LATEST RUNS HAVE SLOWED DOWN ONSET A BIT
BUT STILL THINK AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN IN
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WILL BE MAINLY A RAIN EVENT IN EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY AND SNAKE PLAIN AS WET BULB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT THIS
SOLUTION. STILL A QUICK SYSTEM AS WELL WITH 18Z NAM NOW ENDING
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AS WELL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON EVEN ALONG
WYOMING BORDER. WITH THE QUICK MOVEMENT TRENDED IN GRIDS TO CUT
BACK IN SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY BUT KEPT 8 TO 12 INCHES IN AMOUNTS
IN HIGH ELEVATIONS IN WATCH WORDING WITH GUSTY WINDS STILL
EXPECTED DURING EVENT FROM SOUTH BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE THEN
WESTERLY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW MAY CONTINUE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
MAINLY IN MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS CONTINUING. GK

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING. THE GFS AND ECMWF IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MUCH OF REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DIRTY
NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING SATURDAY`S EVENT. A SERIES OF WAVES MOVE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE OFF ON TIMING. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME PROLONGED PERIODS OF
SNOW AND WIND. THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND BREEZY AND
ONLY SEE RAIN OR SNOW WHEN ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS CROSS THE STATE. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...THE MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY AGAIN. THE GFS
MAINTAINS A SLOW BUILDING OF THE RIDGE INTO THE COASTAL STATES AND
EVENTUALLY OVER IDAHO. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF STILLS SHOWS A
STRONG SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA BRINGING A RETURN OF
MUCH COLDER AND WET WEATHER. THE ENSEMBLES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE
BUT SOME SOLUTIONS SUPPORT SOMETHING SIMILAR TO THE EC...WHILE MOST
FAVOR A FLATTER RIDGE THAT STAYS TO THE WEST. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
KEPT NORTHWEST FLOW AND RAIN/SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN IDAHO.  WE
FOLLOWED SUIT AND STAYED THE COURSE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE MAY
BE DEALING AT THE VERY LEAST WITH SOME TRAVEL ISSUES FOR MANY OF OUR
MOUNTAIN PASSES HEADING INTO THANKSGIVING. DMH/KEYES
&&

.AVIATION...A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN IDAHO
THROUGH TOMORROW. TODAY`S WILL CONTINUE TO PRESENT THE ISSUE OF VERY
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW/FREEZING RAIN INTO THIS EVENING. THAT SAID...IT MAY
BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT CAUSE MAJOR IMPACTS. WE HAVE VCSH AT ALL SITE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS SOME LOW CLOUDS SLOWING WORKING THEIR
WAY INTO THE MAGIC VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY UP THE SNAKE PLAIN. WE ARE
ALREADY SEEING MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR UPSTREAM IN SEVERAL SPOTS...SO WE
SHOULD EVENTUALLY SEE AT LEAST MVFR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING
BEFORE CLOUDS BREAK UP A BIT. WHILE NOT IN THE FORECAST...IT IS
POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES OVERNIGHT COMING FROM THE
STRATUS DECK. FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING IDZ019-022-023-025-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IDZ018-031.
&&

$$











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