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000
FXUS65 KPIH 291914
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
114 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday. An upper trof moving thru
the Pac NW today will move off to the east by Mon morning. Showers
and a few tstms over the mtns this eve will diminish by Mon
morning. Southwest winds will pick up across the Snake River Plain
in the wake of the upper trof late Mon morning. Winds will peak
Mon aftn and diminish Mon eve. Decided to go with a lake wind
advisory for Mon...even though winds look to be borderline. Should
be plenty of boat traffic on the reservoir due to the Memorial Day
holiday...so thought it best to raise awareness.

Upper ridging builds into the West on Mon...and dominates thru
Wed. This results in warm and dry conditions. Hedges

.LONG TERM...Wed night through next Sun night. 500mb long wave
pattern shows the longwave ridge over the Great Plains will continue
to build and move the storm track farther north and away from the
forecast area. This pattern does open up a chance for subtropical
moisture to move up from the Gulf of California if southerly wind
develops due to a shortwave moving into the west coast. The ECMWF
and GFS cannot seem to agree on when this may occur, although they
are in agreement for the first 2 days that conditions will be mainly
clear. Breezy conditions for those first two days until the upper
level winds go light for Sat and Sun, then very light wind is
expected.

Messick

&&

.AVIATION...Some locations will have gusty wind this afternoon, but
-SHRA and -TSRA will be limited to the southern highlands and the
northern half of the central Idaho mountains. Thus have some VCTS
remarks for KBYI and KPIH only. Very dry in the KSUN area, so very
little happening there. May see some CIGs Memorial Day afternoon
at KIDA and KPIH when better moisture develops over eastern Idaho.

Messick

&&

.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM MDT Monday for IDZ021.

&&

$$





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