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000
FXUS65 KPIH 202023
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
223 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO PACNW. WV SHOWS SHORTWAVE
EJECTING THROUGH MONTANA AND SECOND SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST
FROM BC CANADA INTO WASHINGTON STATE. AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER
EAST IDAHO WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM ROUGHLY .7 TO NEAR AN INCH.
CONVECTION ALREADY ONGOING OVER HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS WITH SNAKE
PLAIN GENERALLY DRY SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SLOWLY MOVE
PACNW SHORTWAVE THROUGH IDAHO OVERNIGHT THEN DROP ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIGHT BEHIND IT. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ONGOING
OVERNIGHT MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS BUT WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED POPS OVER SNAKE PLAIN AS WELL. MODELS BECOMING MORE
PERSISTENT WITH DROPPING DEEPER SHORTWAVE INTO PACNW LATE
THURSDAY. STILL SEEING MOISTURE DRAGGED NORTH THROUGH GREAT BASIN
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ESPECIALLY
EASTERN HALF OF REGION. UPPER LOW DROPS TO EASTERN WA/OR DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. BOTH NAM AND GFS MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
EAST IDAHO INTO FRIDAY WITH PW VALUES STAYING ABOVE .75 AND
NEARING AN INCH IN PLACES. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
FAR THE DRY AIR WILL PENETRATE INTO THE REGION ON RELATIVE DRY
SLOTS ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR FEATURES WORKING AROUND THE LOW. HAVE
KEPT THE LOWEST POPS ON THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN BUT OTHERWISE HAVE CONTINUED
TREND OF NUDGING POPS UPWARD AND COOLING OFF HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL SUPPORT TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS EAST
IDAHO DURING THE DATY SATURDAY BUT ALL ALSO CONTINUE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SNEAKING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. UPPER LOW EJECTS
NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT. EAST IDAHO REMAINS UNDER
INFLUENCE OF TROUGH WITH SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH PACNW
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE MADE ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING EAST IDAHO MILDLY UNSETTLED AND
REAMINING COOL. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW. VFR WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM EXCEPT FOR PERIODS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL...WHICH MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. WINDS
WITH STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY EXCEED 30KTS.  KEYES


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND WETTING RAINS WITH STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE
RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT
ANYWHERE CLOSE TO SHOWING A STRONG TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING THE MAIN LOW RIGHT OVER IDAHO ON SATURDAY...WITH A BIT OF A
BREAK SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM ARRIVES LATER MONDAY. RIGHT
NOW...WE DIDN`T REALLY CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY IF THE LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. THIS WOULD BE DRY
A BIG DRY SLOT AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THOUGH WE WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER BY
MIDWEEK AS THE PATTERN IS TRYING TO TRANSITION TO MORE A RIDGE OVER
THE WEST.  KEYES


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 202023
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
223 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH SETTLING INTO PACNW. WV SHOWS SHORTWAVE
EJECTING THROUGH MONTANA AND SECOND SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST
FROM BC CANADA INTO WASHINGTON STATE. AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER
EAST IDAHO WITH PW VALUES RANGING FROM ROUGHLY .7 TO NEAR AN INCH.
CONVECTION ALREADY ONGOING OVER HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS WITH SNAKE
PLAIN GENERALLY DRY SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SLOWLY MOVE
PACNW SHORTWAVE THROUGH IDAHO OVERNIGHT THEN DROP ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE RIGHT BEHIND IT. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ONGOING
OVERNIGHT MAINLY HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS BUT WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED POPS OVER SNAKE PLAIN AS WELL. MODELS BECOMING MORE
PERSISTENT WITH DROPPING DEEPER SHORTWAVE INTO PACNW LATE
THURSDAY. STILL SEEING MOISTURE DRAGGED NORTH THROUGH GREAT BASIN
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SO WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS ESPECIALLY
EASTERN HALF OF REGION. UPPER LOW DROPS TO EASTERN WA/OR DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. BOTH NAM AND GFS MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
EAST IDAHO INTO FRIDAY WITH PW VALUES STAYING ABOVE .75 AND
NEARING AN INCH IN PLACES. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
FAR THE DRY AIR WILL PENETRATE INTO THE REGION ON RELATIVE DRY
SLOTS ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR FEATURES WORKING AROUND THE LOW. HAVE
KEPT THE LOWEST POPS ON THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
INTO PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN BUT OTHERWISE HAVE CONTINUED
TREND OF NUDGING POPS UPWARD AND COOLING OFF HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL SUPPORT TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING ACROSS EAST
IDAHO DURING THE DATY SATURDAY BUT ALL ALSO CONTINUE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SNEAKING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. UPPER LOW EJECTS
NORTHEAST INTO MONTANA SUNDAY NIGHT. EAST IDAHO REMAINS UNDER
INFLUENCE OF TROUGH WITH SECOND SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH PACNW
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE MADE ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING EAST IDAHO MILDLY UNSETTLED AND
REAMINING COOL. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW. VFR WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM EXCEPT FOR PERIODS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL...WHICH MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. WINDS
WITH STORMS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY EXCEED 30KTS.  KEYES


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND WETTING RAINS WITH STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE
RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...THE MODELS ARE STILL NOT
ANYWHERE CLOSE TO SHOWING A STRONG TREND ONE WAY OR ANOTHER
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS ARE NOW
SHOWING THE MAIN LOW RIGHT OVER IDAHO ON SATURDAY...WITH A BIT OF A
BREAK SUNDAY BEFORE THE NEXT STORM ARRIVES LATER MONDAY. RIGHT
NOW...WE DIDN`T REALLY CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT WILL NEED TO
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY IF THE LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. THIS WOULD BE DRY
A BIG DRY SLOT AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THOUGH WE WILL SEE DRIER WEATHER BY
MIDWEEK AS THE PATTERN IS TRYING TO TRANSITION TO MORE A RIDGE OVER
THE WEST.  KEYES


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 201554
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
954 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER EASTERN IDAHO TODAY. STRONG
MOISTURE FLOW AHEAD OF AXIS CONTRIBUTING TO WIDE RANGE OF PW
VALUES FROM .65 TO 1.10 PER SAT SOUNDER IMAGERY. HIGHEST VALUES
IN SOUTHEAST CORNER WITH LOWEST VALUES OVER CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FAVORED TODAY MOST AREAS. HEAVIEST
RAIN EXPECTED IN JUICIEST AIR MASS. BASED ON PRECIP AMOUNTS
YESTERDAY ANOTHER THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WIDESPREAD
FLOODING THREAT NOT ANTICIPATED. ONLY UPDATE TODAY IS TO CORRECT
MINOR GRID ISSUE WITH MAX TEMPS IN SUN VALLEY AREA WHERE SOME
SPURIOUS HIGH VALUES HAVE CREPT INTO THE GRIDS. WILL WORK TO CLEAR
THIS ERROR IN REMAINING TEMP GRIDS THROUGH DAY 8 WITH AFTERNOON
PACKAGE. FOR NOW...POP/RELATED GRIDS APPEAR REASONABLE AND WILL
LEAVE FOR TODAY. DMH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS OVER IDAHO CURRENTLY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING
EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT LEAVING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MAINLY ALONG THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS AND MORE SO OVER THE CARIBOU HIGHLANDS AND BEAR LAKE
REGION. FRIDAY MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DROPPING AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE RAISED POPS AND QPF AS RESULT FOR FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST OVER MONTANA BY SATURDAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY BECOMING 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY
SATURDAY. WYATT

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY IN NORTHERLY FLOW. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY BRINGING MODERATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS START
TRENDING DRIER IN NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AND EVEN MORE SO ON
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BECOMING NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. WYATT

AVIATION...HOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF
ALL TAF SITES AGAIN TODAY BEGINNING ABOUT 19Z. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY MAINLY VFR EXCEPT IN STORM CELLS WITH HEAVY DOWN POURS. RS

FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TODAY. MOST ALL OF THE CARIBOU-TARGHEE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
WETTING RAINS...ALONG WITH THE CURLEW GRASS LANDS...AND PERHAPS A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION FROM NEAR MACKAY ANGLED TOWARDS MONIDA PASS.
THURSDAY WILL BE A LIGHTER DAY...MUCH OF THE CHALLIS AND NORTHERN
SAWTOOTH MAY SEE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ON THE HIGHER
PEAKS. STORM CELLS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE. FRIDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS ABLE TO PUT
DOWN MORE WETTING RAINS. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK KEEPS IDAHO UNDER A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AND EVEN BY
TUESDAY THIS AREA IS STILL UNDER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. IF WE
ARE GOING TO SEE ANY KIND OF A RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN IT WILL BE
NEXT WEDNESDAY AT THE EARLIEST. THAT TAKES UP TO THE 27TH OF
AUGUST...ANOTHER WEAK OR TWO AFTER THAT AND WE DRIFT INTO FALL
TEMPERATURES. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 200941
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
341 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS OVER IDAHO CURRENTLY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING
EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT LEAVING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MAINLY ALONG THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS AND MORE SO OVER THE CARIBOU HIGHLANDS AND BEAR LAKE
REGION. FRIDAY MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DROPPING AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE RAISED POPS AND QPF AS RESULT FOR FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST OVER MONTANA BY SATURDAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY BECOMING 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY
SATURDAY. WYATT

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY IN NORTHERLY FLOW. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY BRINGING MODERATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS START
TRENDING DRIER IN NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AND EVEN MORE SO ON
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BECOMING NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...HOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF
ALL TAF SITES AGAIN TODAY BEGINNING ABOUT 19Z. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY MAINLY VFR EXCEPT IN STORM CELLS WITH HEAVY DOWN POURS. RS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TODAY. MOST ALL OF THE CARIBOU-TARGHEE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
WETTING RAINS...ALONG WITH THE CURLEW GRASS LANDS...AND PERHAPS A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION FROM NEAR MACKAY ANGLED TOWARDS MONIDA PASS.
THURSDAY WILL BE A LIGHTER DAY...MUCH OF THE CHALLIS AND NORTHERN
SAWTOOTH MAY SEE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ON THE HIGHER
PEAKS. STORM CELLS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE. FRIDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS ABLE TO PUT
DOWN MORE WETTING RAINS. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK KEEPS IDAHO UNDER A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AND EVEN BY
TUESDAY THIS AREA IS STILL UNDER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. IF WE
ARE GOING TO SEE ANY KIND OF A RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN IT WILL BE
NEXT WEDNESDAY AT THE EARLIEST. THAT TAKES UP TO THE 27TH OF
AUGUST...ANOTHER WEAK OR TWO AFTER THAT AND WE DRIFT INTO FALL
TEMPERATURES. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 200941
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
341 AM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS OVER IDAHO CURRENTLY. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. LOCALIZED FLOODING
EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT LEAVING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MAINLY ALONG THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS AND MORE SO OVER THE CARIBOU HIGHLANDS AND BEAR LAKE
REGION. FRIDAY MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DROPPING AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE RAISED POPS AND QPF AS RESULT FOR FRIDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST OVER MONTANA BY SATURDAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS ON SATURDAY. EXPECT NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY BECOMING 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY
SATURDAY. WYATT

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON SUNDAY IN NORTHERLY FLOW. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY BRINGING MODERATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. MODELS START
TRENDING DRIER IN NORTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY AND EVEN MORE SO ON
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BECOMING NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...HOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF
ALL TAF SITES AGAIN TODAY BEGINNING ABOUT 19Z. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY MAINLY VFR EXCEPT IN STORM CELLS WITH HEAVY DOWN POURS. RS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TODAY. MOST ALL OF THE CARIBOU-TARGHEE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF
WETTING RAINS...ALONG WITH THE CURLEW GRASS LANDS...AND PERHAPS A
BAND OF PRECIPITATION FROM NEAR MACKAY ANGLED TOWARDS MONIDA PASS.
THURSDAY WILL BE A LIGHTER DAY...MUCH OF THE CHALLIS AND NORTHERN
SAWTOOTH MAY SEE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ON THE HIGHER
PEAKS. STORM CELLS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS WILL
BE MORE ACTIVE. FRIDAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO AGAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS ABLE TO PUT
DOWN MORE WETTING RAINS. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK KEEPS IDAHO UNDER A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY...AND EVEN BY
TUESDAY THIS AREA IS STILL UNDER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. IF WE
ARE GOING TO SEE ANY KIND OF A RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN IT WILL BE
NEXT WEDNESDAY AT THE EARLIEST. THAT TAKES UP TO THE 27TH OF
AUGUST...ANOTHER WEAK OR TWO AFTER THAT AND WE DRIFT INTO FALL
TEMPERATURES. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 191847
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1247 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. EAST IDAHO AHEAD OF
AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALONG COAST WITH CUT OFF LOW OFF CALIFORNIA
COAST COMBINING WITH SLOWLY PROGRESSING STRONG SORTWAVE IN
WASHINGTON STATE. MONSOON SURGE EXTENDS NORTH INTO EASTERN IDAHO
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING NORTHEAST THROUGH GREAT BASIN. RADAR
SHOWING LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS EASTERN PORTIONS BUT BELIEVE LITTLE
IS REACHING THE GROUND. CLOUD COVER KEEPING MUCH OF THIS REGION
CAPPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS FURTHER
NORTH IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS INCLUDING RAP/HRRR CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
CONTINUING NORTH INTO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT MIGHT BE OVERDONE
WITH THUNDER UNDER CURRENT CLOUD COVER. GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE
EJECTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CORNER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD LEAVE MUCH OF
REGION IN WEAK UNSETTLED RIDGE OVERNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
INTO IDAHO THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. UPPER TROUGH BECOMES VERY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TITLED
INTO THURSDAY WITH TROUGH AXIS DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN IDAHO. BOTH
GFS AND NAM SHOWING STRONG INDICATION THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL
WORK INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO KEEP REGION DRY. LATEST WRINKLE
IN THE FORECAST HEADED INTO FRIDAY IS A RETURN TO THE SOLUTION OF
DEEP CUT OFF LOW OVER PACNW. NAM AND GFS DIFFER IN POSITION OF
CENTER OF LOW. NAM FURTHER NORTH AND MORE OPEN THAN
GFS...RESULTING IN MORE PRECIP ACROSS EAST IDAHO THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. DMH

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MADE NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT FORECAST. ECMWF AND GFS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
RUN...BOTH SUPPORTING SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSED LOW FROM PACNW
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH IDAHO INTO OPEN TROUGH IN NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
SUNDAY. CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH DAY OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW
FLATTENS SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTH
ALONG THE CANADIAN DIVIDE. TROUGH AXIS IN PLACE MONDAY...SHIFTING
INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY. CURRENT GRIDS MAINTAIN POPS NEAR
CLIMO AND WILL LEAVE FOR NOW. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW AND
BEYOND. WE WILL CARRY AT THE VERY LEAST VCTS AND VCSH IN THE TAFS.
GUSTY WINDS OVER 30 KTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY.  KEYES


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY ACROSS
MOST OF EASTERN IDAHO. THE BEST PERIODS FOR ANY RAINFALL OVER 0.10
INCHES WILL BE THROUGH TOMORROW AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY ALSO NOW
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. GUSTY WINDS
OVER 35MPH AT TIMES ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS AS WELL. WE
WILL SEE INCREASING SURFACE WINDS BUT HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD NEGATE
ANY CONCERNS FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. THE MODELS ARE NOW NOT
TRYING TO DRY OUT THE SOUTHERN FIRE DISTRICTS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
BACK TO WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS ON HOW TO HANDLE THE STORM SAGGING
INTO THE NORTHERN STATES. WE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF SOME
DRYING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLAND.  KEYES


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 191847
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1247 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. EAST IDAHO AHEAD OF
AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALONG COAST WITH CUT OFF LOW OFF CALIFORNIA
COAST COMBINING WITH SLOWLY PROGRESSING STRONG SORTWAVE IN
WASHINGTON STATE. MONSOON SURGE EXTENDS NORTH INTO EASTERN IDAHO
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SLIDING NORTHEAST THROUGH GREAT BASIN. RADAR
SHOWING LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS EASTERN PORTIONS BUT BELIEVE LITTLE
IS REACHING THE GROUND. CLOUD COVER KEEPING MUCH OF THIS REGION
CAPPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BETTER INSTABILITY EXISTS FURTHER
NORTH IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS INCLUDING RAP/HRRR CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON NORTHERN EDGE OF CLOUD COVER
CONTINUING NORTH INTO CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION BUT MIGHT BE OVERDONE
WITH THUNDER UNDER CURRENT CLOUD COVER. GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE
EJECTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CORNER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD LEAVE MUCH OF
REGION IN WEAK UNSETTLED RIDGE OVERNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST
INTO IDAHO THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION. UPPER TROUGH BECOMES VERY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TITLED
INTO THURSDAY WITH TROUGH AXIS DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN IDAHO. BOTH
GFS AND NAM SHOWING STRONG INDICATION THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL
WORK INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO KEEP REGION DRY. LATEST WRINKLE
IN THE FORECAST HEADED INTO FRIDAY IS A RETURN TO THE SOLUTION OF
DEEP CUT OFF LOW OVER PACNW. NAM AND GFS DIFFER IN POSITION OF
CENTER OF LOW. NAM FURTHER NORTH AND MORE OPEN THAN
GFS...RESULTING IN MORE PRECIP ACROSS EAST IDAHO THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. DMH

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MADE NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT FORECAST. ECMWF AND GFS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
RUN...BOTH SUPPORTING SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLOSED LOW FROM PACNW
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH IDAHO INTO OPEN TROUGH IN NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
SUNDAY. CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH DAY OF THE WEEKEND. FLOW
FLATTENS SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTH
ALONG THE CANADIAN DIVIDE. TROUGH AXIS IN PLACE MONDAY...SHIFTING
INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY. CURRENT GRIDS MAINTAIN POPS NEAR
CLIMO AND WILL LEAVE FOR NOW. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH TOMORROW AND
BEYOND. WE WILL CARRY AT THE VERY LEAST VCTS AND VCSH IN THE TAFS.
GUSTY WINDS OVER 30 KTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WHICH COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITY.  KEYES


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY ACROSS
MOST OF EASTERN IDAHO. THE BEST PERIODS FOR ANY RAINFALL OVER 0.10
INCHES WILL BE THROUGH TOMORROW AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY ALSO NOW
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY. GUSTY WINDS
OVER 35MPH AT TIMES ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS AS WELL. WE
WILL SEE INCREASING SURFACE WINDS BUT HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD NEGATE
ANY CONCERNS FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. THE MODELS ARE NOW NOT
TRYING TO DRY OUT THE SOUTHERN FIRE DISTRICTS OVER THE WEEKEND AND
BACK TO WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS ON HOW TO HANDLE THE STORM SAGGING
INTO THE NORTHERN STATES. WE KEPT WITH THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF SOME
DRYING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLAND.  KEYES


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 191444
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
844 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...WEAK CONVECTION FIRING OVER EAST IDAHO ALREADY THIS
MORNING. MONSOON SURGE WORKING NORTH THROUGH GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF
CLOSED LOW OFF CALIFORNIA COAST AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE IN BC
CANADA/WASHINGTON STATE. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND
RELATED GRIDS FOR TODAY TO ADJUST TOWARD EARLY LOOK AT 12Z MODEL
RUNS. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND BEST INSTABILITY. DMH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT. CLOSED LOW TO SOUTH IS
ALLOWING UNSTABLE...MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR TO COME MUCH FARTHER
NORTH WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGS THE
INSTABILITY TO MAKE FOR A DAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING ALREADY OBSERVED
IN EAST CENTRAL NV AT THIS TIME. MAIN FOCUS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE RIVER...BUT EVEN THE SOUTEAST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. DESPITE A
TROUGH APPROACHING...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH AND THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES THROUGH WED AND
THU WITH MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED...THUS POTENTIALLY REPEATED
HEAVY RAINFALL MAKES FLASH FLOODING THE POSSIBLE BIG RISK DURING
THAT TIMEFRAME...IF THE PATTERN MATERIALIZES AS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...FRI TO MON NIGHT. TROUGHING IN CANADA FINALLY MOVES
TO THE EAST OF IDAHO ON SAT...NEARLY BRINGING AN END TO ALL THE
INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIONS WITH AN END TO THE MOIST SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE AIR FLOW. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD
MEAN SOME DRY DAYS AND THEN PERHAPS ON MONDAY A BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE WITH A LOW APPROACHING FOR TUE. THUS POPS UP AGAIN AT THE
VERY END OF THE FORECAST. WITH VERY LITTLE WINDOW FOR CLEAR SKIES
WITHOUT NORTHERLY FLOW...DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WARM UP OR STRONG
DRYING OUT.  MESSICK

AVIATION...SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AND EXPANDING NORTH INTO THE KBYI
AND KPIH AREA THIS MORNING. WILL BE ADJUSTING TAFS FOR THE EARLIER
TIMING AT THESE LOCATIONS. KIDA AND KSUN SHOULD STILL FAVOR SHOWERS
VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE TODAY FAVORS A FEW
STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY SHOWERS AND LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITY. RS

FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL NORTH INTO EASTERN IDAHO
TODAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN THE
MIDDLE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION FROM THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE IN THE RANGE OF .05 TO .15 INCHES. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SETTLES
IN OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THAT WILL KEEP
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE WYOMING
BORDER BOTH DAYS. BY THURSDAY THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO
IDAHO. THAT WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHILE
KEEPING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBOU-TARGHEE AREA. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 191444
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
844 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...WEAK CONVECTION FIRING OVER EAST IDAHO ALREADY THIS
MORNING. MONSOON SURGE WORKING NORTH THROUGH GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF
CLOSED LOW OFF CALIFORNIA COAST AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE IN BC
CANADA/WASHINGTON STATE. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND
RELATED GRIDS FOR TODAY TO ADJUST TOWARD EARLY LOOK AT 12Z MODEL
RUNS. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND BEST INSTABILITY. DMH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT. CLOSED LOW TO SOUTH IS
ALLOWING UNSTABLE...MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR TO COME MUCH FARTHER
NORTH WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGS THE
INSTABILITY TO MAKE FOR A DAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING ALREADY OBSERVED
IN EAST CENTRAL NV AT THIS TIME. MAIN FOCUS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE RIVER...BUT EVEN THE SOUTEAST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. DESPITE A
TROUGH APPROACHING...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH AND THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES THROUGH WED AND
THU WITH MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED...THUS POTENTIALLY REPEATED
HEAVY RAINFALL MAKES FLASH FLOODING THE POSSIBLE BIG RISK DURING
THAT TIMEFRAME...IF THE PATTERN MATERIALIZES AS EXPECTED.

LONG TERM...FRI TO MON NIGHT. TROUGHING IN CANADA FINALLY MOVES
TO THE EAST OF IDAHO ON SAT...NEARLY BRINGING AN END TO ALL THE
INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIONS WITH AN END TO THE MOIST SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE AIR FLOW. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD
MEAN SOME DRY DAYS AND THEN PERHAPS ON MONDAY A BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE WITH A LOW APPROACHING FOR TUE. THUS POPS UP AGAIN AT THE
VERY END OF THE FORECAST. WITH VERY LITTLE WINDOW FOR CLEAR SKIES
WITHOUT NORTHERLY FLOW...DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WARM UP OR STRONG
DRYING OUT.  MESSICK

AVIATION...SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AND EXPANDING NORTH INTO THE KBYI
AND KPIH AREA THIS MORNING. WILL BE ADJUSTING TAFS FOR THE EARLIER
TIMING AT THESE LOCATIONS. KIDA AND KSUN SHOULD STILL FAVOR SHOWERS
VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE TODAY FAVORS A FEW
STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY SHOWERS AND LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITY. RS

FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL NORTH INTO EASTERN IDAHO
TODAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN THE
MIDDLE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION FROM THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE IN THE RANGE OF .05 TO .15 INCHES. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SETTLES
IN OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THAT WILL KEEP
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE WYOMING
BORDER BOTH DAYS. BY THURSDAY THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO
IDAHO. THAT WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHILE
KEEPING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBOU-TARGHEE AREA. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 190948
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
348 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT. CLOSED LOW TO SOUTH IS
ALLOWING UNSTABLE...MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR TO COME MUCH FARTHER
NORTH WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGS THE
INSTABILITY TO MAKE FOR A DAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING ALREADY OBSERVED
IN EAST CENTRAL NV AT THIS TIME. MAIN FOCUS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE RIVER...BUT EVEN THE SOUTEAST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. DESPITE A
TROUGH APPROACHING...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH AND THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES THROUGH WED AND
THU WITH MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED...THUS POTENTIALLY REPEATED
HEAVY RAINFALL MAKES FLASH FLOODING THE POSSIBLE BIG RISK DURING
THAT TIMEFRAME...IF THE PATTERN MATERIALIZES AS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...FRI TO MON NIGHT. TROUGHING IN CANADA FINALLY MOVES
TO THE EAST OF IDAHO ON SAT...NEARLY BRINGING AN END TO ALL THE
INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIONS WITH AN END TO THE MOIST SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE AIR FLOW. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD
MEAN SOME DRY DAYS AND THEN PERHAPS ON MONDAY A BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE WITH A LOW APPROACHING FOR TUE. THUS POPS UP AGAIN AT THE
VERY END OF THE FORECAST. WITH VERY LITTLE WINDOW FOR CLEAR SKIES
WITHOUT NORTHERLY FLOW...DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WARM UP OR STRONG
DRYING OUT.  MESSICK

.AVIATION...SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AND EXPANDING NORTH INTO THE KBYI
AND KPIH AREA THIS MORNING. WILL BE ADJUSTING TAFS FOR THE EARLIER
TIMING AT THESE LOCATIONS. KIDA AND KSUN SHOULD STILL FAVOR SHOWERS
VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE TODAY FAVORS A FEW
STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY SHOWERS AND LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITY. RS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL NORTH INTO EASTERN IDAHO
TODAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN THE
MIDDLE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION FROM THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE IN THE RANGE OF .05 TO .15 INCHES. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SETTLES
IN OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THAT WILL KEEP
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE WYOMING
BORDER BOTH DAYS. BY THURSDAY THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO
IDAHO. THAT WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHILE
KEEPING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBOU-TARGHEE AREA. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 190948
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
348 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT. CLOSED LOW TO SOUTH IS
ALLOWING UNSTABLE...MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR TO COME MUCH FARTHER
NORTH WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGS THE
INSTABILITY TO MAKE FOR A DAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING ALREADY OBSERVED
IN EAST CENTRAL NV AT THIS TIME. MAIN FOCUS SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
SNAKE RIVER...BUT EVEN THE SOUTEAST SIDE OF THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. DESPITE A
TROUGH APPROACHING...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH AND THE CLOSED LOW TO THE SOUTH CONTINUES THROUGH WED AND
THU WITH MORE CONVECTION EXPECTED...THUS POTENTIALLY REPEATED
HEAVY RAINFALL MAKES FLASH FLOODING THE POSSIBLE BIG RISK DURING
THAT TIMEFRAME...IF THE PATTERN MATERIALIZES AS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...FRI TO MON NIGHT. TROUGHING IN CANADA FINALLY MOVES
TO THE EAST OF IDAHO ON SAT...NEARLY BRINGING AN END TO ALL THE
INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIONS WITH AN END TO THE MOIST SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE AIR FLOW. THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD
MEAN SOME DRY DAYS AND THEN PERHAPS ON MONDAY A BREAKDOWN OF THE
RIDGE WITH A LOW APPROACHING FOR TUE. THUS POPS UP AGAIN AT THE
VERY END OF THE FORECAST. WITH VERY LITTLE WINDOW FOR CLEAR SKIES
WITHOUT NORTHERLY FLOW...DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WARM UP OR STRONG
DRYING OUT.  MESSICK

.AVIATION...SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING AND EXPANDING NORTH INTO THE KBYI
AND KPIH AREA THIS MORNING. WILL BE ADJUSTING TAFS FOR THE EARLIER
TIMING AT THESE LOCATIONS. KIDA AND KSUN SHOULD STILL FAVOR SHOWERS
VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE TODAY FAVORS A FEW
STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY SHOWERS AND LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITY. RS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL NORTH INTO EASTERN IDAHO
TODAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN THE
MIDDLE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION FROM THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE IN THE RANGE OF .05 TO .15 INCHES. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SETTLES
IN OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THAT WILL KEEP
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE WYOMING
BORDER BOTH DAYS. BY THURSDAY THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO
IDAHO. THAT WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHILE
KEEPING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE CARIBOU-TARGHEE AREA. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 182342
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
542 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED EVENING FORECAST TO MENTION ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN BASED UPON RADAR
TRENDS. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

VALLE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 144 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...CENTER OF UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PER WV
IMAGERY. MOISTURE PULLING NORTH THROUGH NEVADA AND NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH GREAT BASIN TOWARD EASTERN IDAHO. PAIR OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH EAST IDAHO...ONE ALONG DIVIDE AND
ANOTHER ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER. SOME MOISTURE IN PLACE ALREADY AND
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO REDEVELOP ALREADY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG/AHEAD OF SHORTWAVES.  NAM/RAP SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON
CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE HRRR STRUGGLING
TO CATCH UP. BOTH NAM/GFS CONTINUE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY BUT CONVECTION BLOOMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL
MONSOON FLOW REACHES EAST IDAHO. HAVE NUDGED POPS UPWARD TUESDAY
ALL AREAS. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AS NAM STRONGER WITH
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF EAST IDAHO TUESDAY NIGHT. DIFFERENCES
AMPLIFY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NAM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH BASE OF
TROUGH. GFS HOLDS EAST IDAHO IN NEUTRAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SOUTHERN
CUT OFF LOW FURTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM. BOTH MODELS REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE TO CONTINUE THREAT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE ROUNDS TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER WET DAY MOST AREAS WITH
EASTERN IDAHO JUST AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS. BOTH MODELS
PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SO NUDGED POPS
UPWARD AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ECMWF AND GFS AGAIN DIFFERING IN DETAILS FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST.
ECMWF LOOKING AGAIN TO DROP CLOSED SHORTWAVE INTO BASE OF BROAD
PACNW TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT THEN OPENS IT UP AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT. PLACEMENT/DEPTH OF TROUGH SIMILAR WITH HINTS OF DRY
SLOT WORKING IN FROM OREGON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS
TREAT NORTHERN PACIFIC ENERGY A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY. EAST IDAHO
UNDER SOME INFLUENCE OF BASE OF TROUGH...BUT FLOW RANGES FROM
WEST/DRY IN THE GFS TO NORTHWEST/MOIST IN THE ECMWF. OVERALL OPTED
TO MAKE NO CHANGES TO CURRENT EXTENDED RANGE WITH ISOLATED POPS
CLOSE TO CLIMO AND TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND. DMH

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TODAY BECOMING
CLOSER TO SCATTERED IN SOME AREAS ON TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS OVER 30KTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. EITHER COULD BRING REDUCED
VISIBILITY. WE WILL BE CARRYING AT LEAST VCTS OR VCSH FOR ALL SITES.
KEYES

FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
BE ISOLATED TODAY AND WIDELY SCATTERED TOMORROW. THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS THEY MAY BE TOO STABLE TO SEE
ANY THUNDER AT ALL IF CLOUDS AND TIMING MATCH UP. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY ISSUES WITH SLIDES OR FLOODING
THIS TIME AROUND. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW OUT OF CANADA SAGS
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN STATES. THE BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...HELPING TO REDUCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WE WILL
ALSO SEE THE WIND PICKING UP...BUT INCREASED HUMIDITY SHOULD NEGATE
THIS AND PREVENT ANY ISSUES WITH CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDELY VARYING FORECASTS EACH DAY IN THE
EXTENDED...BUT ONE TREND IS EMERGING DESPITE ALL OF THIS. IT DOES
APPEAR FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WE SHOULD BR PRETTY DRY
BUT BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SNAKE PLAIN. WE SLOWLY TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION WITH THE FORECAST WHERE IT WAS NEEDED...BUT NOT COMPLETELY
TO THAT END OF THE SPECTRUM. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 182342
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
542 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED EVENING FORECAST TO MENTION ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN BASED UPON RADAR
TRENDS. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

VALLE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 144 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...CENTER OF UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PER WV
IMAGERY. MOISTURE PULLING NORTH THROUGH NEVADA AND NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH GREAT BASIN TOWARD EASTERN IDAHO. PAIR OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH EAST IDAHO...ONE ALONG DIVIDE AND
ANOTHER ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER. SOME MOISTURE IN PLACE ALREADY AND
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO REDEVELOP ALREADY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG/AHEAD OF SHORTWAVES.  NAM/RAP SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON
CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE HRRR STRUGGLING
TO CATCH UP. BOTH NAM/GFS CONTINUE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY BUT CONVECTION BLOOMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL
MONSOON FLOW REACHES EAST IDAHO. HAVE NUDGED POPS UPWARD TUESDAY
ALL AREAS. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AS NAM STRONGER WITH
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF EAST IDAHO TUESDAY NIGHT. DIFFERENCES
AMPLIFY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NAM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH BASE OF
TROUGH. GFS HOLDS EAST IDAHO IN NEUTRAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SOUTHERN
CUT OFF LOW FURTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM. BOTH MODELS REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE TO CONTINUE THREAT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE ROUNDS TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER WET DAY MOST AREAS WITH
EASTERN IDAHO JUST AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS. BOTH MODELS
PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SO NUDGED POPS
UPWARD AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ECMWF AND GFS AGAIN DIFFERING IN DETAILS FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST.
ECMWF LOOKING AGAIN TO DROP CLOSED SHORTWAVE INTO BASE OF BROAD
PACNW TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT THEN OPENS IT UP AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT. PLACEMENT/DEPTH OF TROUGH SIMILAR WITH HINTS OF DRY
SLOT WORKING IN FROM OREGON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS
TREAT NORTHERN PACIFIC ENERGY A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY. EAST IDAHO
UNDER SOME INFLUENCE OF BASE OF TROUGH...BUT FLOW RANGES FROM
WEST/DRY IN THE GFS TO NORTHWEST/MOIST IN THE ECMWF. OVERALL OPTED
TO MAKE NO CHANGES TO CURRENT EXTENDED RANGE WITH ISOLATED POPS
CLOSE TO CLIMO AND TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND. DMH

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TODAY BECOMING
CLOSER TO SCATTERED IN SOME AREAS ON TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS OVER 30KTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. EITHER COULD BRING REDUCED
VISIBILITY. WE WILL BE CARRYING AT LEAST VCTS OR VCSH FOR ALL SITES.
KEYES

FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
BE ISOLATED TODAY AND WIDELY SCATTERED TOMORROW. THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS THEY MAY BE TOO STABLE TO SEE
ANY THUNDER AT ALL IF CLOUDS AND TIMING MATCH UP. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY ISSUES WITH SLIDES OR FLOODING
THIS TIME AROUND. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW OUT OF CANADA SAGS
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN STATES. THE BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...HELPING TO REDUCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WE WILL
ALSO SEE THE WIND PICKING UP...BUT INCREASED HUMIDITY SHOULD NEGATE
THIS AND PREVENT ANY ISSUES WITH CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDELY VARYING FORECASTS EACH DAY IN THE
EXTENDED...BUT ONE TREND IS EMERGING DESPITE ALL OF THIS. IT DOES
APPEAR FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WE SHOULD BR PRETTY DRY
BUT BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SNAKE PLAIN. WE SLOWLY TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION WITH THE FORECAST WHERE IT WAS NEEDED...BUT NOT COMPLETELY
TO THAT END OF THE SPECTRUM. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KPIH 181944
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
144 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...CENTER OF UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PER WV
IMAGERY. MOISTURE PULLING NORTH THROUGH NEVADA AND NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH GREAT BASIN TOWARD EASTERN IDAHO. PAIR OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH EAST IDAHO...ONE ALONG DIVIDE AND
ANOTHER ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER. SOME MOISTURE IN PLACE ALREADY AND
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO REDEVELOP ALREADY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG/AHEAD OF SHORTWAVES.  NAM/RAP SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON
CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE HRRR STRUGGLING
TO CATCH UP. BOTH NAM/GFS CONTINUE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY BUT CONVECTION BLOOMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL
MONSOON FLOW REACHES EAST IDAHO. HAVE NUDGED POPS UPWARD TUESDAY
ALL AREAS. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AS NAM STRONGER WITH
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF EAST IDAHO TUESDAY NIGHT. DIFFERENCES
AMPLIFY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NAM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH BASE OF
TROUGH. GFS HOLDS EAST IDAHO IN NEUTRAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SOUTHERN
CUT OFF LOW FURTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM. BOTH MODELS REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE TO CONTINUE THREAT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE ROUNDS TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER WET DAY MOST AREAS WITH
EASTERN IDAHO JUST AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS. BOTH MODELS
PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE CONVERAGE SO NUDGED POPS
UPWARD AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ECMWF AND GFS AGAIN DIFFEREING IN DETAILS FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST.
ECMWF LOOKING AGAIN TO DROP CLOSED SHORTWAVE INTO BASE OF BROAD
PACNW TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT THEN OPENS IT UP AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT. PLACEMENT/DEPTH OF TROUGH SIMILAR WITH HINTS OF DRY
SLOT WORKING IN FROM OREGON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS
TREAT NORTHERN PACIFIC ENERGY A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY. EAST IDAHO
UNDER SOME INFLUENCE OF BASE OF TROUGH...BUT FLOW RANGES FROM
WEST/DRY IN THE GFS TO NORTHWEST/MOIST IN THE ECMWF. OVERALL OPTED
TO MAKE NO CHANGES TO CURRENT EXTENDED RANGE WITH ISOLATED POPS
CLOSE TO CLIMO AND TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TODAY BECOMING
CLOSER TO SCATTERED IN SOME AREAS ON TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS OVER 30KTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. EITHER COULD BRING REDUCED
VISIBILITY. WE WILL BE CARRYING AT LEAST VCTS OR VCSH FOR ALL SITES.
KEYES


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
BE ISOLATED TODAY AND WIDELY SCATTERED TOMORROW. THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS THEY MAY BE TOO STABLE TO SEE
ANY THUNDER AT ALL IF CLOUDS AND TIMING MATCH UP. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY ISSUES WITH SLIDES OR FLOODING
THIS TIME AROUND. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW OUT OF CANADA SAGS
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN STATES. THE BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...HELPING TO REDUCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WE WILL
ALSO SEE THE WIND PICKING UP...BUT INCREASED HUMIDITY SHOULD NEGATE
THIS AND PREVENT ANY ISSUES WITH CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDELY VARYING FORECASTS EACH DAY IN THE
EXTENDED...BUT ONE TREND IS EMERGING DESPITE ALL OF THIS. IT DOES
APPEAR FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WE SHOULD BR PRETTY DRY
BUT BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SNAKE PLAIN. WE SLOWLY TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION WITH THE FORECAST WHERE IT WAS NEEDED...BUT NOT COMPLETELY
TO THAT END OF THE SPECTRUM. KEYES


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 181944
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
144 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...CENTER OF UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA PER WV
IMAGERY. MOISTURE PULLING NORTH THROUGH NEVADA AND NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH GREAT BASIN TOWARD EASTERN IDAHO. PAIR OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH EAST IDAHO...ONE ALONG DIVIDE AND
ANOTHER ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER. SOME MOISTURE IN PLACE ALREADY AND
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO REDEVELOP ALREADY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG/AHEAD OF SHORTWAVES.  NAM/RAP SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON
CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE HRRR STRUGGLING
TO CATCH UP. BOTH NAM/GFS CONTINUE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY BUT CONVECTION BLOOMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL
MONSOON FLOW REACHES EAST IDAHO. HAVE NUDGED POPS UPWARD TUESDAY
ALL AREAS. SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS AS NAM STRONGER WITH
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF EAST IDAHO TUESDAY NIGHT. DIFFERENCES
AMPLIFY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH NAM A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH BASE OF
TROUGH. GFS HOLDS EAST IDAHO IN NEUTRAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SOUTHERN
CUT OFF LOW FURTHER NORTH THAN THE NAM. BOTH MODELS REMAIN
UNSETTLED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE TO CONTINUE THREAT OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SHORTWAVE ROUNDS TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR ANOTHER WET DAY MOST AREAS WITH
EASTERN IDAHO JUST AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH AXIS. BOTH MODELS
PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE CONVERAGE SO NUDGED POPS
UPWARD AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

ECMWF AND GFS AGAIN DIFFEREING IN DETAILS FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST.
ECMWF LOOKING AGAIN TO DROP CLOSED SHORTWAVE INTO BASE OF BROAD
PACNW TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT THEN OPENS IT UP AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT. PLACEMENT/DEPTH OF TROUGH SIMILAR WITH HINTS OF DRY
SLOT WORKING IN FROM OREGON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BOTH MODELS
TREAT NORTHERN PACIFIC ENERGY A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY. EAST IDAHO
UNDER SOME INFLUENCE OF BASE OF TROUGH...BUT FLOW RANGES FROM
WEST/DRY IN THE GFS TO NORTHWEST/MOIST IN THE ECMWF. OVERALL OPTED
TO MAKE NO CHANGES TO CURRENT EXTENDED RANGE WITH ISOLATED POPS
CLOSE TO CLIMO AND TEMPS NEAR GUIDANCE BLEND. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TODAY BECOMING
CLOSER TO SCATTERED IN SOME AREAS ON TUESDAY. GUSTY WINDS OVER 30KTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. EITHER COULD BRING REDUCED
VISIBILITY. WE WILL BE CARRYING AT LEAST VCTS OR VCSH FOR ALL SITES.
KEYES


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
BE ISOLATED TODAY AND WIDELY SCATTERED TOMORROW. THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS THEY MAY BE TOO STABLE TO SEE
ANY THUNDER AT ALL IF CLOUDS AND TIMING MATCH UP. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY ISSUES WITH SLIDES OR FLOODING
THIS TIME AROUND. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW OUT OF CANADA SAGS
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN STATES. THE BETTER CHANCES WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY
WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL FILTER INTO PORTIONS OF THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...HELPING TO REDUCE SHOWERS/STORMS. WE WILL
ALSO SEE THE WIND PICKING UP...BUT INCREASED HUMIDITY SHOULD NEGATE
THIS AND PREVENT ANY ISSUES WITH CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDELY VARYING FORECASTS EACH DAY IN THE
EXTENDED...BUT ONE TREND IS EMERGING DESPITE ALL OF THIS. IT DOES
APPEAR FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WE SHOULD BR PRETTY DRY
BUT BREEZY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SNAKE PLAIN. WE SLOWLY TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION WITH THE FORECAST WHERE IT WAS NEEDED...BUT NOT COMPLETELY
TO THAT END OF THE SPECTRUM. KEYES


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 181415
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
815 AM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH ALONG NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS WITH
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES EARLY. HAVE NUDGED POP AND RELATED GRIDS
UPWARD TO FILL IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH REMAINDER
OF SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHEAST CORNER FOR REST OF TODAY. DMH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 AM MDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW THIS MORNING IS SEEN DIGGING OVER COASTAL
WA/OR AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES. CONVECTION HAS INITIATED AROUND
AN IMPULSE OF ENERGY EAST OF THE LOW IN NORTHEAST OREGON. NAM MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER THIS MORNING AND
EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. BY
TOMORROW...PATTERN WILL BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND UPPER LOW WILL SPIN UP
SOME MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LEND ITSELF TO HIGHER
POPS. NAM AGAIN SUGGESTS MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAN GFS TUESDAY
WITH FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WILL SLIDE
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH GETS A
LITTLE REINFORCEMENT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHICH MAY TRIGGER
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. MOISTURE SHIFTS EASTWARD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ALONG WITH UPPER TROUGH AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE PAC NW.
THIS WILL BRING A COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION IF RIDGING
SOLUTION HOLDS. HINSBERGER

AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS FROM NEAR KBYI TO KPIH THIS AFTERNOON...ALSO
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND KSUN. MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER
AREAS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST CLOSE TO THE KBYI AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOISTURE REACHES A PEAK TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PUT DOWN SOME GOOD RAIN SHOWERS THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY
LOCALLY. RS

FIRE WEATHER...THE LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITY OCCURRED SUNDAY AND
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN PORTIONS OF THE ARCO DESERT AND THE HIGHWAY
93 CORRIDOR THROUGH CHALLIS...RANGING FROM 11 TO 13 PERCENT. A LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TODAY NEAR THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST AND BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO. A SHORT
LIVED INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS
TODAY...PEAKS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN WILL BE
REDIRECTED TO THE EAST WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSING THE
STATE. THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SAWTOOTH AND CARIBOU FOREST AREAS...ALSO IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS PRODUCING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RAIN.
TUESDAY...THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PEAK IN THE SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND AT
LEAST SOME OF THOSE CELLS PRODUCING .1 TO .2 INCH PRECIPITATION. THE
AIRMASS WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE MAY REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH PASSES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED BUT MINIMUM
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH TEENS AND LOWER 20S
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 181415
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
815 AM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTH ALONG NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS WITH
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES EARLY. HAVE NUDGED POP AND RELATED GRIDS
UPWARD TO FILL IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH REMAINDER
OF SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHEAST CORNER FOR REST OF TODAY. DMH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 AM MDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW THIS MORNING IS SEEN DIGGING OVER COASTAL
WA/OR AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES. CONVECTION HAS INITIATED AROUND
AN IMPULSE OF ENERGY EAST OF THE LOW IN NORTHEAST OREGON. NAM MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER THIS MORNING AND
EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. BY
TOMORROW...PATTERN WILL BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND UPPER LOW WILL SPIN UP
SOME MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LEND ITSELF TO HIGHER
POPS. NAM AGAIN SUGGESTS MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAN GFS TUESDAY
WITH FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WILL SLIDE
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH GETS A
LITTLE REINFORCEMENT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHICH MAY TRIGGER
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. MOISTURE SHIFTS EASTWARD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ALONG WITH UPPER TROUGH AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE PAC NW.
THIS WILL BRING A COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION IF RIDGING
SOLUTION HOLDS. HINSBERGER

AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS FROM NEAR KBYI TO KPIH THIS AFTERNOON...ALSO
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND KSUN. MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER
AREAS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST CLOSE TO THE KBYI AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOISTURE REACHES A PEAK TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PUT DOWN SOME GOOD RAIN SHOWERS THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY
LOCALLY. RS

FIRE WEATHER...THE LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITY OCCURRED SUNDAY AND
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN PORTIONS OF THE ARCO DESERT AND THE HIGHWAY
93 CORRIDOR THROUGH CHALLIS...RANGING FROM 11 TO 13 PERCENT. A LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TODAY NEAR THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST AND BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO. A SHORT
LIVED INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS
TODAY...PEAKS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN WILL BE
REDIRECTED TO THE EAST WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSING THE
STATE. THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SAWTOOTH AND CARIBOU FOREST AREAS...ALSO IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS PRODUCING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RAIN.
TUESDAY...THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PEAK IN THE SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND AT
LEAST SOME OF THOSE CELLS PRODUCING .1 TO .2 INCH PRECIPITATION. THE
AIRMASS WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE MAY REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH PASSES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED BUT MINIMUM
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH TEENS AND LOWER 20S
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RS

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 180839
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
239 AM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW THIS MORNING IS SEEN DIGGING OVER COASTAL
WA/OR AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES. CONVECTION HAS INITIATED AROUND
AN IMPULSE OF ENERGY EAST OF THE LOW IN NORTHEAST OREGON. NAM MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER THIS MORNING AND
EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. BY
TOMORROW...PATTERN WILL BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND UPPER LOW WILL SPIN UP
SOME MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LEND ITSELF TO HIGHER
POPS. NAM AGAIN SUGGESTS MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAN GFS TUESDAY
WITH FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WILL SLIDE
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH GETS A
LITTLE REINFORCEMENT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHICH MAY TRIGGER
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. MOISTURE SHIFTS EASTWARD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ALONG WITH UPPER TROUGH AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE PAC NW.
THIS WILL BRING A COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION IF RIDGING
SOLUTION HOLDS. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS FROM NEAR KBYI TO KPIH THIS AFTERNOON...ALSO
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND KSUN. MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER
AREAS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST CLOSE TO THE KBYI AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOISTURE REACHES A PEAK TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PUT DOWN SOME GOOD RAIN SHOWERS THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY
LOCALLY. RS
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITY OCCURRED SUNDAY AND
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN PORTIONS OF THE ARCO DESERT AND THE HIGHWAY
93 CORRIDOR THROUGH CHALLIS...RANGING FROM 11 TO 13 PERCENT. A LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TODAY NEAR THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST AND BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO. A SHORT
LIVED INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS
TODAY...PEAKS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN WILL BE
REDIRECTED TO THE EAST WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSING THE
STATE. THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SAWTOOTH AND CARIBOU FOREST AREAS...ALSO IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS PRODUCING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RAIN.
TUESDAY...THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PEAK IN THE SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND AT
LEAST SOME OF THOSE CELLS PRODUCING .1 TO .2 INCH PRECIPITATION. THE
AIRMASS WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE MAY REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH PASSES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED BUT MINIMUM
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH TEENS AND LOWER 20S
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RS
&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KPIH 180839
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
239 AM MDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW THIS MORNING IS SEEN DIGGING OVER COASTAL
WA/OR AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES. CONVECTION HAS INITIATED AROUND
AN IMPULSE OF ENERGY EAST OF THE LOW IN NORTHEAST OREGON. NAM MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION ALONG SOUTHERN BORDER THIS MORNING AND
EXPANDING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. BY
TOMORROW...PATTERN WILL BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND UPPER LOW WILL SPIN UP
SOME MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LEND ITSELF TO HIGHER
POPS. NAM AGAIN SUGGESTS MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THAN GFS TUESDAY
WITH FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AS UPPER LOW SINKS INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH WILL SLIDE
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH GETS A
LITTLE REINFORCEMENT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHICH MAY TRIGGER
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. MOISTURE SHIFTS EASTWARD SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY ALONG WITH UPPER TROUGH AS RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE PAC NW.
THIS WILL BRING A COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION IF RIDGING
SOLUTION HOLDS. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS FROM NEAR KBYI TO KPIH THIS AFTERNOON...ALSO
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AROUND KSUN. MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASED SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER
AREAS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST CLOSE TO THE KBYI AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOISTURE REACHES A PEAK TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PUT DOWN SOME GOOD RAIN SHOWERS THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY
LOCALLY. RS
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITY OCCURRED SUNDAY AND
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IN PORTIONS OF THE ARCO DESERT AND THE HIGHWAY
93 CORRIDOR THROUGH CHALLIS...RANGING FROM 11 TO 13 PERCENT. A LOW PRESSURE
CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TODAY NEAR THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST AND BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN IDAHO. A SHORT
LIVED INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS AND MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS
TODAY...PEAKS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN WILL BE
REDIRECTED TO THE EAST WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CROSSING THE
STATE. THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SAWTOOTH AND CARIBOU FOREST AREAS...ALSO IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS PRODUCING JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH RAIN.
TUESDAY...THE MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PEAK IN THE SOUTHERN
HIGHLANDS...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND AT
LEAST SOME OF THOSE CELLS PRODUCING .1 TO .2 INCH PRECIPITATION. THE
AIRMASS WITH INCREASED MONSOON MOISTURE MAY REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE TROUGH PASSES WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED BUT MINIMUM
HUMIDITY WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH TEENS AND LOWER 20S
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RS
&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 180309
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
909 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...

RADAR SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 03Z. THE TREND IS
DIMINISHING AND WILL LEAVE THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS IS. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW ECHOS DRIFT ACROSS THE RADAR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BUT THINK THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY VIRGA.

VALLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS
WHERE RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ONGOING. 18Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW
SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL WAIT TO SEE
IF CONVECTION DISSIPATES AROUND 03Z BEFORE DECIDING WHETHER OR NOT
TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

VALLE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR SEATTLE THIS AFTERNOON PER
WV SAT IMAGERY. WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO THIS
AFTERNOON HAS HELPED DEVELOP SOME WEAK BUILD UPS OVER PORTIONS OF
EAST IDAHO. GFS ON BOARD WITH NAM NOW IN DEVELOPING QPF FROM THESE
BUILD UPS FOR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING PAST 06Z. PLACEMENT OF
QPF REMAINS IN LINE WITH PROGRESSION OF WEAK OREGON SHORTWAVE SO
WILL LEAVE LOW ISOLATED POPS IN PLACE. UPPER LOW OFF PACNW COAST
CONTINUES TO DIP SOUTH INTO MONDAY. RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER EAST
IDAHO BUT SIGNS OF MOISTURE SURGE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH GREAT
BASIN. BOTH MODELS MAINTAIN POCKETS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH NAM
STRONGEST IN PORTRAYING QPF DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE POPS AFTERNOON/EVENING HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH STRONGER
SIGNAL FOR STORMS TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW DIVES FURTHER SOUTH ALONG
COAST AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO CANADIAN
DIVIDE REGION. BELIEVE THIS TO BE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN
SHORT TERM AND HAVE AGAIN NUDGED POPS SLIGHTLY UPWARD ACROSS EAST
IDAHO. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWING A DIP IN TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH INCREASED SURFACE DEWPTS AND POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
EARLY. NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE IN KICKING BASE OF NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH EAST OF ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ALSO KEEPS SOUTHERN LOW
MORE CLOSED THAN GFS. RESULT IS THAT GFS MAINTAINS WETTER
CONDITIONS OVER EAST IDAHO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR DIFFERENCES APPARENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF RUNS HEADING
BEYOND MID WEEK. BOTH MAINTAIN BROAD TROUGH OVER PACNW AND
NORTHERN MTNS BUT SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TIMING AND
OVERALL POSITION OF TROUGH AXIS. GFS A LITTLE SHARPER WITH TROUGH
EARLY IN THE EXTENDED AND SLIGHTLY WEST. REGARDLESS...BOTH MODELS
PAINT CONVECTION ACROSS EAST IDAHO EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HEADING INTO WEEKEND...PRIOR RUNS THAT DEVELOPED DEEP CUT
OFF LOW OVER PACNW HAVE GIVEN WAY TO A MORE SHALLOW LOW CENTERED
FURTHER NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY...ECMWF HAS ABANDONED IDAHO OF CUT
OFF LOW OVERALL AND KEEPS BROAD TROUGH CONNECTED TO DEEP LOW IN
NORTHERN CANADA. BLENDED GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ISOLATED POPS CLOSE TO CLIMO LEVELS. DMH

AVIATION...WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WE MAY SEE A
FEW STORMS AFFECT KBYI IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ONLY OTHER AIRPORT
THAT MIGHT BE AFFECTED BY STORMS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WOULD BE KSUN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A
BRIEF DOWNPOUR POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  KEYES

FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AFFECTED AREAS WOULD MAINLY BE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AS THE STORM ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP...A QUICK SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WORKS NORTH. THE
QUESTION BECOMES WILL WE SEE THE FULL BRUNT OF IT OR GET CLIPPED AS
IT STREAMS INTO WYOMING. RIGHT NOW...WE ARE GOING FOR SOMETHING IN
BETWEEN. WE ARE FORECASTING ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FOR
TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM FROM CANADA SAGS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
U.S. WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR A COOLDOWN ALONG WITH INCREASING
WINDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST AREAS. THE MODELS
ARE DIVERGING STILL WILDLY BY THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF WANTS TO MOVE
THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD AND BRING COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER BY SUNDAY. THE
GFS HAS IT STILL HANGING AROUND WITH ONLY A SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE DIVIDE.
BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING...WE WILL
KEEP WITH THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE FARTHER NORTH. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 180309
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
909 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...

RADAR SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS OF 03Z. THE TREND IS
DIMINISHING AND WILL LEAVE THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS IS. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW ECHOS DRIFT ACROSS THE RADAR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BUT THINK THIS WILL BE PRIMARILY VIRGA.

VALLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS
WHERE RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ONGOING. 18Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW
SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL WAIT TO SEE
IF CONVECTION DISSIPATES AROUND 03Z BEFORE DECIDING WHETHER OR NOT
TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

VALLE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR SEATTLE THIS AFTERNOON PER
WV SAT IMAGERY. WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO THIS
AFTERNOON HAS HELPED DEVELOP SOME WEAK BUILD UPS OVER PORTIONS OF
EAST IDAHO. GFS ON BOARD WITH NAM NOW IN DEVELOPING QPF FROM THESE
BUILD UPS FOR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING PAST 06Z. PLACEMENT OF
QPF REMAINS IN LINE WITH PROGRESSION OF WEAK OREGON SHORTWAVE SO
WILL LEAVE LOW ISOLATED POPS IN PLACE. UPPER LOW OFF PACNW COAST
CONTINUES TO DIP SOUTH INTO MONDAY. RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER EAST
IDAHO BUT SIGNS OF MOISTURE SURGE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH GREAT
BASIN. BOTH MODELS MAINTAIN POCKETS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH NAM
STRONGEST IN PORTRAYING QPF DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE POPS AFTERNOON/EVENING HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH STRONGER
SIGNAL FOR STORMS TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW DIVES FURTHER SOUTH ALONG
COAST AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO CANADIAN
DIVIDE REGION. BELIEVE THIS TO BE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN
SHORT TERM AND HAVE AGAIN NUDGED POPS SLIGHTLY UPWARD ACROSS EAST
IDAHO. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWING A DIP IN TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH INCREASED SURFACE DEWPTS AND POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
EARLY. NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE IN KICKING BASE OF NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH EAST OF ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ALSO KEEPS SOUTHERN LOW
MORE CLOSED THAN GFS. RESULT IS THAT GFS MAINTAINS WETTER
CONDITIONS OVER EAST IDAHO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR DIFFERENCES APPARENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF RUNS HEADING
BEYOND MID WEEK. BOTH MAINTAIN BROAD TROUGH OVER PACNW AND
NORTHERN MTNS BUT SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TIMING AND
OVERALL POSITION OF TROUGH AXIS. GFS A LITTLE SHARPER WITH TROUGH
EARLY IN THE EXTENDED AND SLIGHTLY WEST. REGARDLESS...BOTH MODELS
PAINT CONVECTION ACROSS EAST IDAHO EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HEADING INTO WEEKEND...PRIOR RUNS THAT DEVELOPED DEEP CUT
OFF LOW OVER PACNW HAVE GIVEN WAY TO A MORE SHALLOW LOW CENTERED
FURTHER NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY...ECMWF HAS ABANDONED IDAHO OF CUT
OFF LOW OVERALL AND KEEPS BROAD TROUGH CONNECTED TO DEEP LOW IN
NORTHERN CANADA. BLENDED GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ISOLATED POPS CLOSE TO CLIMO LEVELS. DMH

AVIATION...WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WE MAY SEE A
FEW STORMS AFFECT KBYI IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ONLY OTHER AIRPORT
THAT MIGHT BE AFFECTED BY STORMS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WOULD BE KSUN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A
BRIEF DOWNPOUR POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  KEYES

FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AFFECTED AREAS WOULD MAINLY BE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AS THE STORM ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP...A QUICK SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WORKS NORTH. THE
QUESTION BECOMES WILL WE SEE THE FULL BRUNT OF IT OR GET CLIPPED AS
IT STREAMS INTO WYOMING. RIGHT NOW...WE ARE GOING FOR SOMETHING IN
BETWEEN. WE ARE FORECASTING ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FOR
TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM FROM CANADA SAGS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
U.S. WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR A COOLDOWN ALONG WITH INCREASING
WINDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST AREAS. THE MODELS
ARE DIVERGING STILL WILDLY BY THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF WANTS TO MOVE
THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD AND BRING COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER BY SUNDAY. THE
GFS HAS IT STILL HANGING AROUND WITH ONLY A SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE DIVIDE.
BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING...WE WILL
KEEP WITH THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE FARTHER NORTH. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 172319
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
519 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS
WHERE RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ONGOING. 18Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW
SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL WAIT TO SEE
IF CONVECTION DISSIPATES AROUND 03Z BEFORE DECIDING WHETHER OR NOT
TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

VALLE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR SEATTLE THIS AFTERNOON PER
WV SAT IMAGERY. WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO THIS
AFTERNOON HAS HELPED DEVELOP SOME WEAK BUILD UPS OVER PORTIONS OF
EAST IDAHO. GFS ON BOARD WITH NAM NOW IN DEVELOPING QPF FROM THESE
BUILD UPS FOR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING PAST 06Z. PLACEMENT OF
QPF REMAINS IN LINE WITH PROGRESSION OF WEAK OREGON SHORTWAVE SO
WILL LEAVE LOW ISOLATED POPS IN PLACE. UPPER LOW OFF PACNW COAST
CONTINUES TO DIP SOUTH INTO MONDAY. RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER EAST
IDAHO BUT SIGNS OF MOISTURE SURGE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH GREAT
BASIN. BOTH MODELS MAINTAIN POCKETS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH NAM
STRONGEST IN PORTRAYING QPF DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE POPS AFTERNOON/EVENING HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH STRONGER
SIGNAL FOR STORMS TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW DIVES FURTHER SOUTH ALONG
COAST AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO CANADIAN
DIVIDE REGION. BELIEVE THIS TO BE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN
SHORT TERM AND HAVE AGAIN NUDGED POPS SLIGHTLY UPWARD ACROSS EAST
IDAHO. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWING A DIP IN TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH INCREASED SURFACE DEWPTS AND POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
EARLY. NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE IN KICKING BASE OF NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH EAST OF ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ALSO KEEPS SOUTHERN LOW
MORE CLOSED THAN GFS. RESULT IS THAT GFS MAINTAINS WETTER
CONDITIONS OVER EAST IDAHO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR DIFFERENCES APPARENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF RUNS HEADING
BEYOND MID WEEK. BOTH MAINTAIN BROAD TROUGH OVER PACNW AND
NORTHERN MTNS BUT SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TIMING AND
OVERALL POSITION OF TROUGH AXIS. GFS A LITTLE SHARPER WITH TROUGH
EARLY IN THE EXTENDED AND SLIGHTLY WEST. REGARDLESS...BOTH MODELS
PAINT CONVECTION ACROSS EAST IDAHO EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HEADING INTO WEEKEND...PRIOR RUNS THAT DEVELOPED DEEP CUT
OFF LOW OVER PACNW HAVE GIVEN WAY TO A MORE SHALLOW LOW CENTERED
FURTHER NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY...ECMWF HAS ABANDONED IDAHO OF CUT
OFF LOW OVERALL AND KEEPS BROAD TROUGH CONNECTED TO DEEP LOW IN
NORTHERN CANADA. BLENDED GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ISOLATED POPS CLOSE TO CLIMO LEVELS. DMH

AVIATION...WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WE MAY SEE A
FEW STORMS AFFECT KBYI IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ONLY OTHER AIRPORT
THAT MIGHT BE AFFECTED BY STORMS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WOULD BE KSUN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A
BRIEF DOWNPOUR POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  KEYES

FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AFFECTED AREAS WOULD MAINLY BE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AS THE STORM ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP...A QUICK SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WORKS NORTH. THE
QUESTION BECOMES WILL WE SEE THE FULL BRUNT OF IT OR GET CLIPPED AS
IT STREAMS INTO WYOMING. RIGHT NOW...WE ARE GOING FOR SOMETHING IN
BETWEEN. WE ARE FORECASTING ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FOR
TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM FROM CANADA SAGS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
U.S. WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR A COOLDOWN ALONG WITH INCREASING
WINDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST AREAS. THE MODELS
ARE DIVERGING STILL WILDLY BY THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF WANTS TO MOVE
THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD AND BRING COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER BY SUNDAY. THE
GFS HAS IT STILL HANGING AROUND WITH ONLY A SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE DIVIDE.
BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING...WE WILL
KEEP WITH THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE FARTHER NORTH. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 172319
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
519 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS
WHERE RADAR SHOWS CONVECTION ONGOING. 18Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW
SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL WAIT TO SEE
IF CONVECTION DISSIPATES AROUND 03Z BEFORE DECIDING WHETHER OR NOT
TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

VALLE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR SEATTLE THIS AFTERNOON PER
WV SAT IMAGERY. WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO THIS
AFTERNOON HAS HELPED DEVELOP SOME WEAK BUILD UPS OVER PORTIONS OF
EAST IDAHO. GFS ON BOARD WITH NAM NOW IN DEVELOPING QPF FROM THESE
BUILD UPS FOR THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING PAST 06Z. PLACEMENT OF
QPF REMAINS IN LINE WITH PROGRESSION OF WEAK OREGON SHORTWAVE SO
WILL LEAVE LOW ISOLATED POPS IN PLACE. UPPER LOW OFF PACNW COAST
CONTINUES TO DIP SOUTH INTO MONDAY. RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER EAST
IDAHO BUT SIGNS OF MOISTURE SURGE PUSHES NORTH THROUGH GREAT
BASIN. BOTH MODELS MAINTAIN POCKETS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH NAM
STRONGEST IN PORTRAYING QPF DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE POPS AFTERNOON/EVENING HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MUCH STRONGER
SIGNAL FOR STORMS TUESDAY AS UPPER LOW DIVES FURTHER SOUTH ALONG
COAST AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO CANADIAN
DIVIDE REGION. BELIEVE THIS TO BE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN
SHORT TERM AND HAVE AGAIN NUDGED POPS SLIGHTLY UPWARD ACROSS EAST
IDAHO. GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWING A DIP IN TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH INCREASED SURFACE DEWPTS AND POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER
EARLY. NAM MORE AGGRESSIVE IN KICKING BASE OF NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH EAST OF ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND ALSO KEEPS SOUTHERN LOW
MORE CLOSED THAN GFS. RESULT IS THAT GFS MAINTAINS WETTER
CONDITIONS OVER EAST IDAHO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

SIMILAR DIFFERENCES APPARENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF RUNS HEADING
BEYOND MID WEEK. BOTH MAINTAIN BROAD TROUGH OVER PACNW AND
NORTHERN MTNS BUT SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TIMING AND
OVERALL POSITION OF TROUGH AXIS. GFS A LITTLE SHARPER WITH TROUGH
EARLY IN THE EXTENDED AND SLIGHTLY WEST. REGARDLESS...BOTH MODELS
PAINT CONVECTION ACROSS EAST IDAHO EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. HEADING INTO WEEKEND...PRIOR RUNS THAT DEVELOPED DEEP CUT
OFF LOW OVER PACNW HAVE GIVEN WAY TO A MORE SHALLOW LOW CENTERED
FURTHER NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY...ECMWF HAS ABANDONED IDAHO OF CUT
OFF LOW OVERALL AND KEEPS BROAD TROUGH CONNECTED TO DEEP LOW IN
NORTHERN CANADA. BLENDED GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ISOLATED POPS CLOSE TO CLIMO LEVELS. DMH

AVIATION...WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WE MAY SEE A
FEW STORMS AFFECT KBYI IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ONLY OTHER AIRPORT
THAT MIGHT BE AFFECTED BY STORMS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WOULD BE KSUN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A
BRIEF DOWNPOUR POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  KEYES

FIRE WEATHER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR THE INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEK. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AFFECTED AREAS WOULD MAINLY BE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AS THE STORM ALONG THE COAST CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP...A QUICK SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WORKS NORTH. THE
QUESTION BECOMES WILL WE SEE THE FULL BRUNT OF IT OR GET CLIPPED AS
IT STREAMS INTO WYOMING. RIGHT NOW...WE ARE GOING FOR SOMETHING IN
BETWEEN. WE ARE FORECASTING ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS FOR
TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM FROM CANADA SAGS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN
U.S. WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR A COOLDOWN ALONG WITH INCREASING
WINDS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST AREAS. THE MODELS
ARE DIVERGING STILL WILDLY BY THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF WANTS TO MOVE
THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD AND BRING COMPLETELY DRY WEATHER BY SUNDAY. THE
GFS HAS IT STILL HANGING AROUND WITH ONLY A SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
MOVEMENT...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR THE DIVIDE.
BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTING...WE WILL
KEEP WITH THE PREVIOUS IDEA OF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE FARTHER NORTH. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








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