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000
FXUS65 KPIH 292000
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
200 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN AND
MOVING EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO MOVE OVER
NORTHERN IDAHO. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BRINGING LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED VALLEY AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL KICK OFF TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY BREAKING RECORDS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES DROP SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AND HOT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT FOR THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND. CURRENTLY...THE MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DESPITE MODEL CONSISTENCY...EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW
RECORD HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND. TW

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.  THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN THREAT THROUGH TUESDAY AND HAVE VICINITY ALL SITES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.   AFTER 21Z AT SUN AND AFTER 00Z AT
BYI...PIH AND IDA.  WEAK WAVE TOPPING RIDGE WILL CREATE SOME THROUGH
TOMORROW BUT NOTHING NEAR ANY TAF SITE AS OF 20Z.  SHOULD DEVELOP
LATER.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL OVER EASTERN IDAHO
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE WEST SIDE OF IT.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IN ZONES
475...476 AND 422 WITH LESS COVERAGE FURTHER EAST. THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH AT LEAST
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID WEEK WITH HOT
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THOUGH NOT AS HOT AS THE LAST TWO DAYS.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 292000
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
200 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN AND
MOVING EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO MOVE OVER
NORTHERN IDAHO. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BRINGING LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING BRINGING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED VALLEY AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL KICK OFF TOMORROW AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY BREAKING RECORDS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES DROP SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
SATURDAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AND HOT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT FOR THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND. CURRENTLY...THE MODELS ARE
HINTING THAT MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
DESPITE MODEL CONSISTENCY...EXPECT HOT TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW
RECORD HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND. TW

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.  THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MAIN THREAT THROUGH TUESDAY AND HAVE VICINITY ALL SITES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.   AFTER 21Z AT SUN AND AFTER 00Z AT
BYI...PIH AND IDA.  WEAK WAVE TOPPING RIDGE WILL CREATE SOME THROUGH
TOMORROW BUT NOTHING NEAR ANY TAF SITE AS OF 20Z.  SHOULD DEVELOP
LATER.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL OVER EASTERN IDAHO
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE WEST SIDE OF IT.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IN ZONES
475...476 AND 422 WITH LESS COVERAGE FURTHER EAST. THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH AT LEAST
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND THE ENTIRE DISTRICT
THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID WEEK WITH HOT
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THOUGH NOT AS HOT AS THE LAST TWO DAYS.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 290837
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
237 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
ITS MOVE SOUTHWARD AND ALLOW THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TO PASS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING EASTWARD DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. IT
WILL BRING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...AND SO PORTIONS OF THE CUSTER
COUNTY AND THE SALMON-CHALLIS NF WILL BE UNDER MARGINAL CONDITIONS
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR THE ID-MT BORDER
REGION. AS THE FRONT PASSES...LATE TONIGHT AND FOR TUE MORNING THE
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD...INCLUDING THE BEAR LAKE BASIN BY
TUE AFTERNOON. ON WED...BEHIND THE FRONT...A MUCH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY
AIR FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL END THE RECORD-BREAKING
HEAT...BUT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. WIND ON TUE WILL APPROACH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THE RESERVOIR...BUT RIGHT NOW IT IS STAYING JUST BELOW THRESHOLD.

.LONG TERM...THU THROUGH SUN NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NEVADA...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT
LEAST SAT NIGHT. LATE SUN EVENING MAY SEE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
RETURN TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING UP SIGNIFICANT
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY BRING IN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT RECORDS ARE 100
AND ABOVE. EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON BREEZY CONDITIONS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING...SO NOT FORSEE ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE TOP OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL ENHANCE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. IF ALL GOES WELL...THE MID LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL FAVOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF KSUN...OTHERWISE
THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY FROM 18Z-02Z NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AT
KBYI...KPIH AND KIDA ISOALTED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DELAY A COUPLE OF
HOURS BUT BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE EVENING...SAY 20Z TO 04Z. FOR
TUESDAY...CLOUD COVER AND WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR LESS
INSTABILITY...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT
EACH OF THE TAF SITES. RS
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE IDAHO PAN
HANDLE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTRIBUTE TO SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SALMON-CHALLIS AND NORTHERN SAWTOOTH AREA. A
FEW OF THESE CELLS MAY PRODUCE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NEAR
NOON TIME AND CONTINUE AS LATE AS 2000 HOURS. FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN
AND SOUTHERN SAWTOOTH...AND CARIBOU-TARGHEE FOREST AREA
...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN NEAR 1400 HOURS AND CONTINUE
AS LATE AS 2200 HOURS. FOR TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES COOLING 5 TO 8
DEGREES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. MORE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL FAVOR
ISOALTED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ARCO DESERT AND
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. RS
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 290837
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
237 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
ITS MOVE SOUTHWARD AND ALLOW THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TO PASS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...CONTINUING EASTWARD DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. IT
WILL BRING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...AND SO PORTIONS OF THE CUSTER
COUNTY AND THE SALMON-CHALLIS NF WILL BE UNDER MARGINAL CONDITIONS
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR THE ID-MT BORDER
REGION. AS THE FRONT PASSES...LATE TONIGHT AND FOR TUE MORNING THE
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD...INCLUDING THE BEAR LAKE BASIN BY
TUE AFTERNOON. ON WED...BEHIND THE FRONT...A MUCH DRIER NORTHWESTERLY
AIR FLOW WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL END THE RECORD-BREAKING
HEAT...BUT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. WIND ON TUE WILL APPROACH LAKE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
THE RESERVOIR...BUT RIGHT NOW IT IS STAYING JUST BELOW THRESHOLD.

.LONG TERM...THU THROUGH SUN NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NEVADA...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT
LEAST SAT NIGHT. LATE SUN EVENING MAY SEE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
RETURN TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WHICH WOULD BRING UP SIGNIFICANT
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. BUT FOR NOW WILL ONLY BRING IN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT RECORDS ARE 100
AND ABOVE. EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON BREEZY CONDITIONS DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING...SO NOT FORSEE ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND DURING THIS PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE TOP OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL ENHANCE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. IF ALL GOES WELL...THE MID LEVEL
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL FAVOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF KSUN...OTHERWISE
THUNDERSTORMS VICINITY FROM 18Z-02Z NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AT
KBYI...KPIH AND KIDA ISOALTED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DELAY A COUPLE OF
HOURS BUT BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE EVENING...SAY 20Z TO 04Z. FOR
TUESDAY...CLOUD COVER AND WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR LESS
INSTABILITY...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT
EACH OF THE TAF SITES. RS
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE IDAHO PAN
HANDLE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTRIBUTE TO SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SALMON-CHALLIS AND NORTHERN SAWTOOTH AREA. A
FEW OF THESE CELLS MAY PRODUCE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NEAR
NOON TIME AND CONTINUE AS LATE AS 2000 HOURS. FOR THE SNAKE PLAIN
AND SOUTHERN SAWTOOTH...AND CARIBOU-TARGHEE FOREST AREA
...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN NEAR 1400 HOURS AND CONTINUE
AS LATE AS 2200 HOURS. FOR TUESDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SNAKE PLAIN AND SOME AFTERNOON WESTERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES COOLING 5 TO 8
DEGREES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. MORE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL FAVOR
ISOALTED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...ARCO DESERT AND
ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. RS
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 282017
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
217 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STILL CONTRIBUTING TO EXTREME TEMPS WITH RECORDS ALREADY IN
JEOPARDY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WORKING AROUND THE HIGH
CREEPING INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO PER SAT IMAGERY AND FIRST SIGNS OF
CONVECTION UNDERWAY AS WELL. HAVE NUDGED POPS UPWARDS PER RADAR
TRENDS AND WITH EXPECTATION OF STORMS MAINTAINING CONTINUITY AS
THEY WORK INTO THE SNAKE PLAIN OFF THE CENTRAL MTS. COASTAL LOW
EJECTING NORTHEAST THROUGH PACNW SWINGS ACROSS REGION MONDAY. SOME
MITIGATION OF RECORD TEMPS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL MTNS AS ASSOCIATED
SFC BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH. BEST CONVECTION CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF REGION WITH THIS FEATURE AND STILL QUITE WARM
ELSEWHERE. WEST FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY WITH RIDGE AND THERMAL AXIS
PUSHED SOUTH SO SLIGHTLY COOLER MOST AREAS. DMH

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES
OVERALL TO EXTENDED RANGE. DRY AND STILL QUITE WARM HEADING INTO
MIDWEEK AS CENTER OF HIGH TRIES TO REBOUND AND BEGIN RETROGRADING
WEST. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS PERSISTENCE WITH THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN STATES HEADED INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT ON
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF BC CANADA. GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND COOLER TEMPS PER
GUIDANCE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. GIVEN STRENGTH OF RIDGE AND MODEL TREND
IN DELAYING TIMING...OPTED TO MAINTAIN A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND
CONSENSUS...WHICH KEEPS EAST IDAHO DRY AND WARM. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE TODAY. AN
INCOMING LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS BRINGING SUB-
TROPICAL  MOISTURE INTO AND AROUND THE RIDGE. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
FOR KSUN. MOISTURE IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR EXTREME EASTERN
AND WESTERN BORDERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS FOR KIDA AND KBYI LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS IT WILL TAKE
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER THEM. WYATT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OUR AREA. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS MOVING
MOISTURE INTO AND AROUND THIS RIDGING. EXPECT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING ISOLATED...MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...THE MONTANA DIVIDE AND TO AN LESSER EXTENT WESTERN
CASSIA COUNTY TODAY. THE LOW MOVES OVER NORTHERN IDAHO LATE TOMORROW
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS AND AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. ZONAL FLOW SETS UP LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A VERY WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
IDAHO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN BRINGING
MOSTLY DRY AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS. SATURDAY EXPECT MOSTLY MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WYATT


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 282017
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
217 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
STILL CONTRIBUTING TO EXTREME TEMPS WITH RECORDS ALREADY IN
JEOPARDY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WORKING AROUND THE HIGH
CREEPING INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO PER SAT IMAGERY AND FIRST SIGNS OF
CONVECTION UNDERWAY AS WELL. HAVE NUDGED POPS UPWARDS PER RADAR
TRENDS AND WITH EXPECTATION OF STORMS MAINTAINING CONTINUITY AS
THEY WORK INTO THE SNAKE PLAIN OFF THE CENTRAL MTS. COASTAL LOW
EJECTING NORTHEAST THROUGH PACNW SWINGS ACROSS REGION MONDAY. SOME
MITIGATION OF RECORD TEMPS POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL MTNS AS ASSOCIATED
SFC BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH. BEST CONVECTION CHANCES ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF REGION WITH THIS FEATURE AND STILL QUITE WARM
ELSEWHERE. WEST FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY WITH RIDGE AND THERMAL AXIS
PUSHED SOUTH SO SLIGHTLY COOLER MOST AREAS. DMH

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES
OVERALL TO EXTENDED RANGE. DRY AND STILL QUITE WARM HEADING INTO
MIDWEEK AS CENTER OF HIGH TRIES TO REBOUND AND BEGIN RETROGRADING
WEST. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS PERSISTENCE WITH THE RIDGE
STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN STATES HEADED INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF TRY TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT ON
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF BC CANADA. GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND COOLER TEMPS PER
GUIDANCE SATURDAY/SUNDAY. GIVEN STRENGTH OF RIDGE AND MODEL TREND
IN DELAYING TIMING...OPTED TO MAINTAIN A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND
CONSENSUS...WHICH KEEPS EAST IDAHO DRY AND WARM. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE TODAY. AN
INCOMING LOW OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS BRINGING SUB-
TROPICAL  MOISTURE INTO AND AROUND THE RIDGE. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
IS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. EXPECT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
FOR KSUN. MOISTURE IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS OUR EXTREME EASTERN
AND WESTERN BORDERS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS FOR KIDA AND KBYI LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS IT WILL TAKE
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER THEM. WYATT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OUR AREA. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS MOVING
MOISTURE INTO AND AROUND THIS RIDGING. EXPECT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING ISOLATED...MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...THE MONTANA DIVIDE AND TO AN LESSER EXTENT WESTERN
CASSIA COUNTY TODAY. THE LOW MOVES OVER NORTHERN IDAHO LATE TOMORROW
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS AND AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. ZONAL FLOW SETS UP LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH A VERY WEAK AND MOSTLY DRY WAVE MOVING OVER NORTHERN
IDAHO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT BREEZY WINDS WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP. THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN BRINGING
MOSTLY DRY AND VERY HOT CONDITIONS. SATURDAY EXPECT MOSTLY MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WYATT


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 280818
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
218 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT. NUMEROUS TEMPERATURE
RECORDS SET YESTERDAY...IN SPITE OF CLOUD COVER IN SOME AREAS THAT
ALSO BROUGHT DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TRIGGERING MORE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR A WHILE WILL
RETREAT SOUTHWARD MON AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE COMING FROM THE WEST
FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON MON/MON NIGHT. FOR TUE...THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TO THE ID-UT BORDER REGION.
THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AND END THE RECORD HEAT...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MAY NEED LAKE WIND ADVISORY...BUT DO NOT SEE A
WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY SITUATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...WED THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RE-
ORIENTS ITSELF AS IT UNDERGOES SOME RETROGRADE MOVEMENT INTO
NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA. THIS PUTS SOUTHERN IDAHO IN A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH THE CONVECTION MOVING TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE ROCKIES AND CALIFORNIA. THUS EXPECT SOME THREAT WED
AFTERNOON STILL ALONG THE ID-UT BORDER...BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS OR
SHOWERS AGAIN UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS PERIOD. THE NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE AIR FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
RECORDS. DO NOT FORSEE ANY MAJOR WIND EVENTS OR FRONTS DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ON WED MAY
NECESSITATE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RESERVOIR. MESSICK
&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING AS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATED
NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH NO DIRECT THREAT
AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. HUSTON
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING AS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATED NORTH
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS WITH NO WELL DEFINED TRIGGERING EVENT EVIDENT EITHER IN
THE MODELS OR IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS DAYTIME HEATING WILL ESSENTIALLY DRIVE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A LOW POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF NRN CALIFORNIA WILL
LIFT NORTH OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO SRN CANADA MONDAY AS A
WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY CLIPS THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS. THE GFS
HAS BEEN WAFFLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE SALMON-
CHALLIS NF OR FURTHER NORTH ACROSS WRN MONTANA WHILE THE NAM
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SALMON-CHALLIS EXTENDING NNE INTO WRN
MONTANA. BY TUESDAY...A DRY AND WEST FLOW BREAKS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH OVER UTAH THEN GRADUALLY SPREADS
WEST INTO NEVADA WEDNESDAY EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF ANY MOISTURE
SURGES FROM THE SOUTH. THE GFS SHOWS NO HINT OF A BACKDOOR FRONT FOR
FRIDAY...INSTEAD TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH GRADUALLY
LIFTS THE HIGH NORTH ACROSS NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS SE IDAHO. HUSTON
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 280818
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
218 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT. NUMEROUS TEMPERATURE
RECORDS SET YESTERDAY...IN SPITE OF CLOUD COVER IN SOME AREAS THAT
ALSO BROUGHT DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TRIGGERING MORE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR A WHILE WILL
RETREAT SOUTHWARD MON AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE COMING FROM THE WEST
FLATTENS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON MON/MON NIGHT. FOR TUE...THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIMIT CONVECTION TO THE ID-UT BORDER REGION.
THE MORE WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AND END THE RECORD HEAT...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TUE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MAY NEED LAKE WIND ADVISORY...BUT DO NOT SEE A
WIDESPREAD WIND ADVISORY SITUATION AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...WED THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RE-
ORIENTS ITSELF AS IT UNDERGOES SOME RETROGRADE MOVEMENT INTO
NEVADA AND CALIFORNIA. THIS PUTS SOUTHERN IDAHO IN A DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH THE CONVECTION MOVING TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE ROCKIES AND CALIFORNIA. THUS EXPECT SOME THREAT WED
AFTERNOON STILL ALONG THE ID-UT BORDER...BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS OR
SHOWERS AGAIN UNTIL JUST BEYOND THIS PERIOD. THE NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THE
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE AIR FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
RECORDS. DO NOT FORSEE ANY MAJOR WIND EVENTS OR FRONTS DURING THE
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH WINDY CONDITIONS ON WED MAY
NECESSITATE A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE RESERVOIR. MESSICK
&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING AS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATED
NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WITH NO DIRECT THREAT
AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. HUSTON
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN THIS MORNING AS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATED NORTH
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS WITH NO WELL DEFINED TRIGGERING EVENT EVIDENT EITHER IN
THE MODELS OR IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THUS DAYTIME HEATING WILL ESSENTIALLY DRIVE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. A LOW POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF NRN CALIFORNIA WILL
LIFT NORTH OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE INTO SRN CANADA MONDAY AS A
WEAK ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY CLIPS THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS. THE GFS
HAS BEEN WAFFLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION OVER THE SALMON-
CHALLIS NF OR FURTHER NORTH ACROSS WRN MONTANA WHILE THE NAM
REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SALMON-CHALLIS EXTENDING NNE INTO WRN
MONTANA. BY TUESDAY...A DRY AND WEST FLOW BREAKS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AS THE RIDGE DRIFTS SOUTH OVER UTAH THEN GRADUALLY SPREADS
WEST INTO NEVADA WEDNESDAY EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF ANY MOISTURE
SURGES FROM THE SOUTH. THE GFS SHOWS NO HINT OF A BACKDOOR FRONT FOR
FRIDAY...INSTEAD TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH GRADUALLY
LIFTS THE HIGH NORTH ACROSS NEVADA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS SE IDAHO. HUSTON
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 272008
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
208 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THRUOGH THE GREAT BASIN WITH ANOMALOUS
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB AND 700MB. SFC TEMPS RUNNING SOME 3-5
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH INTO THE REGION PER SAT IMAGERY. GIVEN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND CONTINUATION OF SIGNALS FROM MODELS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LEFT LOW-SCATTERED POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MTNS. RIDGE AXIS ROTATES NORTHEAST WITH
THERMAL AXIS STRENGTHENING THROUGH MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS OF 35+C
EXPECTED WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE RECORDS. SHORTWAVE ALONG CALIFORNIA
COAST EJECTS NORTHWARD THE PUSHES THROUGH THE PACNW MONDAY.
WEAK COOLING EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS AS ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS PANHANDLE. INCREASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTN/EVE SO MILD RELIEF FROM INTENSE HEAT LOOKS LIKELY
THOSE AREAS. FEATURE PUSHES EAST WITH RIDGE AXIS PUSHED SOUTH AND
RESULTANT 850MB COOLING OF SOME 4-6C. MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE THOUGH MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW FAR NORTH CONVECTION COULD
FIRE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE KEPT PRECIP MENTION OVER HIGHER
ELEVATION BUT NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER.
TEMPS STILL LIKELY TO APPROACH RECORDS ON TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE
COOLER THAN MONDAY. DMH

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH 4TH OF JULY. RIDGE REBOUNDS AND
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. EAST IDAHO UNDER INFLUENCE OF GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF BOTH KEEP SOME IDEA OF CONVECTION MAINLY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF FCST AREA. TEMPS STAY ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO
APPEAR TO STAY BELOW RECORDS AT THIS TIME FOR MOST AREAS. MODELS
DROP ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF BC CANADA FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. TIMING FLUCTUATING BETWEEN BOTH MODELS AND EACH RUN SO
HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY PERSISTENCE FCST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOLING
HEADED INTO SATURDAY. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATS NORTH AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH INTO SW AND CENTRAL IDAHO. EXPECT ISOLATED LATE
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR KSUN AND KBYI BETWEEN 1500 AND
2100 MDT THIS EVENING. DSH


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN TODAY AS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATES NORTH AROUND THE
WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH INTO SW AND CENTRAL IDAHO. EXPECT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AGAIN OVER THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH-CNTRL
HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE POSITIONED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ROTATES NORTH ALONG
THE OREGON COAST SUNDAY AND THEN OVER THE TOP OF THE HIGH INTO SRN
CANADA MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO WRN
MONTANA AND TRAILING ACROSS THE CNTRL IDAHO MOUNTAINS INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SALMON-CHALLIS NF AND
EXTENDING EAST INTO SW MONTANA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. MODEST SOUTH TO
SW WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE FORU
CORNERS DRIFTS SOUTH AND THEN WEST INTO NEVADA CUTTING OFF THE SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED INTO IDAHO WHILE A MODEST NW FLOW ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE END OF THE WEEK...HINTS OF A
BACKDOOR FRONT SPILLING OVER THE DIVIDE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS STILL IN PLAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTH AND
POSITIONING REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. DSH


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 272008
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
208 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THRUOGH THE GREAT BASIN WITH ANOMALOUS
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB AND 700MB. SFC TEMPS RUNNING SOME 3-5
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH INTO THE REGION PER SAT IMAGERY. GIVEN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND CONTINUATION OF SIGNALS FROM MODELS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LEFT LOW-SCATTERED POPS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MTNS. RIDGE AXIS ROTATES NORTHEAST WITH
THERMAL AXIS STRENGTHENING THROUGH MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS OF 35+C
EXPECTED WILL PUSH TEMPS ABOVE RECORDS. SHORTWAVE ALONG CALIFORNIA
COAST EJECTS NORTHWARD THE PUSHES THROUGH THE PACNW MONDAY.
WEAK COOLING EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS AS ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS PANHANDLE. INCREASED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTN/EVE SO MILD RELIEF FROM INTENSE HEAT LOOKS LIKELY
THOSE AREAS. FEATURE PUSHES EAST WITH RIDGE AXIS PUSHED SOUTH AND
RESULTANT 850MB COOLING OF SOME 4-6C. MID LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN
PLACE THOUGH MODELS DIFFERING ON HOW FAR NORTH CONVECTION COULD
FIRE ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE KEPT PRECIP MENTION OVER HIGHER
ELEVATION BUT NUDGED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER.
TEMPS STILL LIKELY TO APPROACH RECORDS ON TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BE
COOLER THAN MONDAY. DMH

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH 4TH OF JULY. RIDGE REBOUNDS AND
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. EAST IDAHO UNDER INFLUENCE OF GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
THOUGH GFS AND ECMWF BOTH KEEP SOME IDEA OF CONVECTION MAINLY
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF FCST AREA. TEMPS STAY ABOVE NORMAL BUT DO
APPEAR TO STAY BELOW RECORDS AT THIS TIME FOR MOST AREAS. MODELS
DROP ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT OF BC CANADA FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. TIMING FLUCTUATING BETWEEN BOTH MODELS AND EACH RUN SO
HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY PERSISTENCE FCST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOLING
HEADED INTO SATURDAY. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATS NORTH AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH INTO SW AND CENTRAL IDAHO. EXPECT ISOLATED LATE
CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR KSUN AND KBYI BETWEEN 1500 AND
2100 MDT THIS EVENING. DSH


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN TODAY AS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATES NORTH AROUND THE
WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH INTO SW AND CENTRAL IDAHO. EXPECT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AGAIN OVER THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH-CNTRL
HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE POSITIONED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ROTATES NORTH ALONG
THE OREGON COAST SUNDAY AND THEN OVER THE TOP OF THE HIGH INTO SRN
CANADA MONDAY. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO WRN
MONTANA AND TRAILING ACROSS THE CNTRL IDAHO MOUNTAINS INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SALMON-CHALLIS NF AND
EXTENDING EAST INTO SW MONTANA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. MODEST SOUTH TO
SW WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE FORU
CORNERS DRIFTS SOUTH AND THEN WEST INTO NEVADA CUTTING OFF THE SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED INTO IDAHO WHILE A MODEST NW FLOW ALOFT
SETTLES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE END OF THE WEEK...HINTS OF A
BACKDOOR FRONT SPILLING OVER THE DIVIDE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS STILL IN PLAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTH AND
POSITIONING REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. DSH


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 270819
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
219 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MON NIGHT. LAST NIGHT SOME MOISTURE
INFILTRATED THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS AND DID TRIGGER ONE DRY THUNDERSTORM. BOTH THE GFS AND
TO A GREATER EXTENT THE NAM SHOW AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR THAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINOUS
ZONES AND ACROSS THE ID-MT BORDER. SO HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD
COVER AND POPS FOR THE INCREASED THREAT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SUN
IS A REPEAT FOR THE POPS/CLOUDS/WEATHER...MAYBE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
CHANCE...SO HAVE INCREASED THOSE AS WELL. WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE A PROBLEM UNDER THE OVERALL WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND LIGHT FLOW
ALOFT. ON MON...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD
ALL THE WAY TO THE ID-WY BORDER...SO THE DOOR IS OPEN TO EVEN MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MON AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE STRONG
INSTABILITY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND THUS NOT AS MUCH
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS DAY EXCEPT FOR LEMHI COUNTY.

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT...IN SPITE OF THE WEAK THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...REMAINS THE HOT TEMPERATURES. EXPECT UPPER 90S IN THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY TODAY...WITH THE BIAS
CORRECTION STILL COLDER THAN MOS GUIDANCE. BUT WARMER WITH THERMAL
TROUGH FINALLY MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MON. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER OVER THIS PERIOD...COMBINED WITH HOT
AFTERNOONS...SHOULD MEAN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. MESSICK

.LONG TERM...TUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. AFTER A TROUGH PASSES JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TAKES ON A FLATTER SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO. THIS LEAVES MAINLY
DRY WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONE EXCEPTION. THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH IS MAKING THE FLOW MORE
SOUTHERLY IN THE ID-UT BORDER REGION...AND THIS IS ALLOWING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. BY WED NIGHT OR
THU...DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE TO BELIEVE...THE HIGH STARTS A
RETROGRADE MOVEMENT TOWARDS CALIFORNIA AND TURNS THE AIRFLOW MORE
WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY. THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST IS WHERE
GUIDANCE STARTS TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF PREFERS TO KEEP
THE DRY WEST-NORTHWEST AIRFLOW...WITH A TROUGH SAGGING SOUTHWARD
AND BRINGING COOLER AIR BUT NO PRECIPITATION THREAT. THE GFS
BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FARTHER EAST SO IT
IS MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH CLOUDINESS AND SHOULD BE COLDER.
THE GFS ACTUALLY BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONGER
WIND ALOFT...LOOK FOR A RETURN OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOONS IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND ALONG RIDGES. MESSICK
&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING AS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATED
NORTH AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH INTO SW IDAHO. NUMERICAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL SHIFT INTO SE IDAHO
FEEDING CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR KSUN AND KBYI BETWEEN
1500 AND 2100 MDT THIS EVENING. HUSTON
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING AS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATED
NORTH AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH INTO SW IDAHO. WE DID SEE
A FEW WEAK CELLS PULSE UP NEAR CHALLIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH THE
INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AM INCLINED TO EXPECT A
LITTLE GREATER ACTIVITY OVER THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH-CNTRL
HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE POSITIONED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ROTATES NORTH ALONG
THE OREGON COAST SUNDAY AND THEN OVER THE TOP OF THE HIGH INTO SRN
CANADA MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO WRN MONTANA AND TRAILING ACROSS THE CNTRL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE SALMON-CHALLIS NF AND EXTENDING EAST INTO SW
MONTANA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. MODEST SOUTH TO SW WINDS WILL PICK UP
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HIGH DRIFTING SOUTH AND THEN
WEST INTO NEVADA CUTTING OFF THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED INTO
IDAHO WHILE A MODEST NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. ONE
MODEL SUPPORTS A BACKDOOR FRONT SPILLING OVER THE DIVIDE WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE A SECOND MAINTAINS THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH OVER NEVADA INTO SATURDAY AND THEN ALLOWS A
WEAKER BACKDOOR FRONT TO BRUSH THE REGION SUNDAY. HUSTON
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 270819
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
219 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MON NIGHT. LAST NIGHT SOME MOISTURE
INFILTRATED THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS AND DID TRIGGER ONE DRY THUNDERSTORM. BOTH THE GFS AND
TO A GREATER EXTENT THE NAM SHOW AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR THAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINOUS
ZONES AND ACROSS THE ID-MT BORDER. SO HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD
COVER AND POPS FOR THE INCREASED THREAT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SUN
IS A REPEAT FOR THE POPS/CLOUDS/WEATHER...MAYBE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
CHANCE...SO HAVE INCREASED THOSE AS WELL. WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE A PROBLEM UNDER THE OVERALL WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND LIGHT FLOW
ALOFT. ON MON...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD
ALL THE WAY TO THE ID-WY BORDER...SO THE DOOR IS OPEN TO EVEN MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MON AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE STRONG
INSTABILITY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND THUS NOT AS MUCH
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS DAY EXCEPT FOR LEMHI COUNTY.

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT...IN SPITE OF THE WEAK THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...REMAINS THE HOT TEMPERATURES. EXPECT UPPER 90S IN THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY TODAY...WITH THE BIAS
CORRECTION STILL COLDER THAN MOS GUIDANCE. BUT WARMER WITH THERMAL
TROUGH FINALLY MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MON. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER OVER THIS PERIOD...COMBINED WITH HOT
AFTERNOONS...SHOULD MEAN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. MESSICK

.LONG TERM...TUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. AFTER A TROUGH PASSES JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TAKES ON A FLATTER SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO. THIS LEAVES MAINLY
DRY WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONE EXCEPTION. THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH IS MAKING THE FLOW MORE
SOUTHERLY IN THE ID-UT BORDER REGION...AND THIS IS ALLOWING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. BY WED NIGHT OR
THU...DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE TO BELIEVE...THE HIGH STARTS A
RETROGRADE MOVEMENT TOWARDS CALIFORNIA AND TURNS THE AIRFLOW MORE
WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY. THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST IS WHERE
GUIDANCE STARTS TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF PREFERS TO KEEP
THE DRY WEST-NORTHWEST AIRFLOW...WITH A TROUGH SAGGING SOUTHWARD
AND BRINGING COOLER AIR BUT NO PRECIPITATION THREAT. THE GFS
BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FARTHER EAST SO IT
IS MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH CLOUDINESS AND SHOULD BE COLDER.
THE GFS ACTUALLY BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONGER
WIND ALOFT...LOOK FOR A RETURN OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOONS IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND ALONG RIDGES. MESSICK
&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING AS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATED
NORTH AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH INTO SW IDAHO. NUMERICAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL SHIFT INTO SE IDAHO
FEEDING CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR KSUN AND KBYI BETWEEN
1500 AND 2100 MDT THIS EVENING. HUSTON
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING AS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATED
NORTH AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH INTO SW IDAHO. WE DID SEE
A FEW WEAK CELLS PULSE UP NEAR CHALLIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH THE
INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AM INCLINED TO EXPECT A
LITTLE GREATER ACTIVITY OVER THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH-CNTRL
HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE POSITIONED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ROTATES NORTH ALONG
THE OREGON COAST SUNDAY AND THEN OVER THE TOP OF THE HIGH INTO SRN
CANADA MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO WRN MONTANA AND TRAILING ACROSS THE CNTRL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE SALMON-CHALLIS NF AND EXTENDING EAST INTO SW
MONTANA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. MODEST SOUTH TO SW WINDS WILL PICK UP
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HIGH DRIFTING SOUTH AND THEN
WEST INTO NEVADA CUTTING OFF THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED INTO
IDAHO WHILE A MODEST NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. ONE
MODEL SUPPORTS A BACKDOOR FRONT SPILLING OVER THE DIVIDE WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE A SECOND MAINTAINS THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH OVER NEVADA INTO SATURDAY AND THEN ALLOWS A
WEAKER BACKDOOR FRONT TO BRUSH THE REGION SUNDAY. HUSTON
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 270819
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
219 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MON NIGHT. LAST NIGHT SOME MOISTURE
INFILTRATED THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS AND DID TRIGGER ONE DRY THUNDERSTORM. BOTH THE GFS AND
TO A GREATER EXTENT THE NAM SHOW AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE FOR THAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINOUS
ZONES AND ACROSS THE ID-MT BORDER. SO HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUD
COVER AND POPS FOR THE INCREASED THREAT. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SUN
IS A REPEAT FOR THE POPS/CLOUDS/WEATHER...MAYBE SLIGHTLY STRONGER
CHANCE...SO HAVE INCREASED THOSE AS WELL. WIND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE A PROBLEM UNDER THE OVERALL WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND LIGHT FLOW
ALOFT. ON MON...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD
ALL THE WAY TO THE ID-WY BORDER...SO THE DOOR IS OPEN TO EVEN MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR MON AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE STRONG
INSTABILITY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AND THUS NOT AS MUCH
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THIS DAY EXCEPT FOR LEMHI COUNTY.

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT...IN SPITE OF THE WEAK THUNDERSTORM
THREAT...REMAINS THE HOT TEMPERATURES. EXPECT UPPER 90S IN THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY TODAY...WITH THE BIAS
CORRECTION STILL COLDER THAN MOS GUIDANCE. BUT WARMER WITH THERMAL
TROUGH FINALLY MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON MON. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER OVER THIS PERIOD...COMBINED WITH HOT
AFTERNOONS...SHOULD MEAN MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. MESSICK

.LONG TERM...TUE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. AFTER A TROUGH PASSES JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MON NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TAKES ON A FLATTER SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO. THIS LEAVES MAINLY
DRY WESTERLY FLOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONE EXCEPTION. THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH IS MAKING THE FLOW MORE
SOUTHERLY IN THE ID-UT BORDER REGION...AND THIS IS ALLOWING THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION FOR THE
FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE FORECAST PERIOD. BY WED NIGHT OR
THU...DEPENDING ON WHICH GUIDANCE TO BELIEVE...THE HIGH STARTS A
RETROGRADE MOVEMENT TOWARDS CALIFORNIA AND TURNS THE AIRFLOW MORE
WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY. THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST IS WHERE
GUIDANCE STARTS TO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF PREFERS TO KEEP
THE DRY WEST-NORTHWEST AIRFLOW...WITH A TROUGH SAGGING SOUTHWARD
AND BRINGING COOLER AIR BUT NO PRECIPITATION THREAT. THE GFS
BRINGS MORE MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FARTHER EAST SO IT
IS MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH CLOUDINESS AND SHOULD BE COLDER.
THE GFS ACTUALLY BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW AND STRONGER
WIND ALOFT...LOOK FOR A RETURN OF BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOONS IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND ALONG RIDGES. MESSICK
&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING AS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATED
NORTH AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH INTO SW IDAHO. NUMERICAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL SHIFT INTO SE IDAHO
FEEDING CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS NEAR KSUN AND KBYI BETWEEN
1500 AND 2100 MDT THIS EVENING. HUSTON
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED ANCHORED OVER THE
GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING AS SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ROTATED
NORTH AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH INTO SW IDAHO. WE DID SEE
A FEW WEAK CELLS PULSE UP NEAR CHALLIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH THE
INFLUX OF MOISTURE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...AM INCLINED TO EXPECT A
LITTLE GREATER ACTIVITY OVER THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH-CNTRL
HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS A
DISTURBANCE POSITIONED OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ROTATES NORTH ALONG
THE OREGON COAST SUNDAY AND THEN OVER THE TOP OF THE HIGH INTO SRN
CANADA MONDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO WRN MONTANA AND TRAILING ACROSS THE CNTRL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER THE SALMON-CHALLIS NF AND EXTENDING EAST INTO SW
MONTANA MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVE. MODEST SOUTH TO SW WINDS WILL PICK UP
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HIGH DRIFTING SOUTH AND THEN
WEST INTO NEVADA CUTTING OFF THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED INTO
IDAHO WHILE A MODEST NW FLOW ALOFT SETTLES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. ONE
MODEL SUPPORTS A BACKDOOR FRONT SPILLING OVER THE DIVIDE WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE A SECOND MAINTAINS THE
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH OVER NEVADA INTO SATURDAY AND THEN ALLOWS A
WEAKER BACKDOOR FRONT TO BRUSH THE REGION SUNDAY. HUSTON
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




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