Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KPIH 230836
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
236 AM MDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM WYOMING.
SHOWERS SEEN ON RADAR TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM IDAHO FALLS. NAM
AND HRRR SUGGEST FURTHER RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS LATER THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE BEEN HITTING OUR
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER PRETTY HEAVILY WITH RAIN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT INTO COLORADO TONIGHT
AND INTO WYOMING TOMORROW MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AFTER THE HEAVIER BAND MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING. WE MAY
FINALLY SEE A BREAK FROM THE WET WEATHER BY SUNDAY MORNING...A
TREND MORE FAVORED BY THE NAM THAN THE GFS...AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO TRACK EASTWARD. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS A
WETTER PATTERN FOR MEMORIAL DAY AS IT DRAWS MOISTURE IN AHEAD OF
ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW MOVING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY
NIGHT. NAM PRODUCES AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE WITH TO SHOW A RETURN TO WET
WEATHER WHILE WE REMAIN IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RIDGING MAY FINALLY TAKE HOLD AS WE HEAD
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO COMPLETELY
DRY.  HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...BROAD AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION WORKING THROUGH EAST
IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND UPPER
LOW INTO SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. NORTHERN AREAS COULD DRY
OUT EARLY BUT EXPECT PRECIP TO FILL IN ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN A MIX OF VFR/MVFR. PRECIP
LOOKS TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS MOST AREAS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THOUGH CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUING TOWARD
SUNRISE. DMH
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DEEP UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY LATE SUNDAY. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
KEEP EAST IDAHO UNDER THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST NEXT WEEK FOR CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS EACH
DAY. DMH
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 221953
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
153 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY...SO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING OUT WYOMING INTO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE PART OF A SPIRAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF
THE BAND AREA ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. ONCE AGAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS ON
SUNDAY. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...MON NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRI NIGHT. THE LONGWAVE 500MB
FORECAST INDICATES THAT BY WED THE GEM STATE MAY BE IN MORE OF A
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW RATHER THAN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT HAS
BEEN BRINGING UP THE UNSTABLE SUBTROPICAL AIR. THIS IS WHY THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOWERS FOR THU AND FRI. THERE IS HOPE TO
BELIEVE THIS AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE EXPECTING THIS. NOT THAT
THERE IS ZERO CHANCE...BUT THAT THE THREAT IS REDUCED. DECREASED
CLOUDINESS BY WED WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP DESPITE THE
SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED OTHER THAN
FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ENOUGH IN BY LATE MORNING TO ALLOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED AND CONTINUE THE ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING -TSRA. SHOWERS WILL NOT TAPER OFF DURING THE
EVENING AS A MASSIVE MOIST AIR MASS MOVES IN FOR THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS THROUGH MOST OF SAT. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A CIG IMPACT FOR
THE AIRDROMES...MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MOISTURE TENDS
TO THIN BY MID-AFTERNOON...JUST IN TIME FOR THE INCREASED HEATING TO
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP -TSRA. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 221953
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
153 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY...SO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING OUT WYOMING INTO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE PART OF A SPIRAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF
THE BAND AREA ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. ONCE AGAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS ON
SUNDAY. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...MON NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRI NIGHT. THE LONGWAVE 500MB
FORECAST INDICATES THAT BY WED THE GEM STATE MAY BE IN MORE OF A
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW RATHER THAN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT HAS
BEEN BRINGING UP THE UNSTABLE SUBTROPICAL AIR. THIS IS WHY THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOWERS FOR THU AND FRI. THERE IS HOPE TO
BELIEVE THIS AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE EXPECTING THIS. NOT THAT
THERE IS ZERO CHANCE...BUT THAT THE THREAT IS REDUCED. DECREASED
CLOUDINESS BY WED WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP DESPITE THE
SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED OTHER THAN
FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ENOUGH IN BY LATE MORNING TO ALLOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED AND CONTINUE THE ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING -TSRA. SHOWERS WILL NOT TAPER OFF DURING THE
EVENING AS A MASSIVE MOIST AIR MASS MOVES IN FOR THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS THROUGH MOST OF SAT. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A CIG IMPACT FOR
THE AIRDROMES...MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MOISTURE TENDS
TO THIN BY MID-AFTERNOON...JUST IN TIME FOR THE INCREASED HEATING TO
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP -TSRA. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 221953
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
153 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY...SO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING OUT WYOMING INTO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE PART OF A SPIRAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF
THE BAND AREA ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. ONCE AGAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS ON
SUNDAY. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...MON NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRI NIGHT. THE LONGWAVE 500MB
FORECAST INDICATES THAT BY WED THE GEM STATE MAY BE IN MORE OF A
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW RATHER THAN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT HAS
BEEN BRINGING UP THE UNSTABLE SUBTROPICAL AIR. THIS IS WHY THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOWERS FOR THU AND FRI. THERE IS HOPE TO
BELIEVE THIS AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE EXPECTING THIS. NOT THAT
THERE IS ZERO CHANCE...BUT THAT THE THREAT IS REDUCED. DECREASED
CLOUDINESS BY WED WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP DESPITE THE
SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED OTHER THAN
FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ENOUGH IN BY LATE MORNING TO ALLOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED AND CONTINUE THE ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING -TSRA. SHOWERS WILL NOT TAPER OFF DURING THE
EVENING AS A MASSIVE MOIST AIR MASS MOVES IN FOR THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS THROUGH MOST OF SAT. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A CIG IMPACT FOR
THE AIRDROMES...MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MOISTURE TENDS
TO THIN BY MID-AFTERNOON...JUST IN TIME FOR THE INCREASED HEATING TO
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP -TSRA. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 221953
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
153 PM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN
UTAH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY...SO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH SOME SMALL HAIL. MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING OUT WYOMING INTO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE PART OF A SPIRAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF
THE BAND AREA ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. ONCE AGAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.
THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS ON
SUNDAY. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THIS TIME FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...MON NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRI NIGHT. THE LONGWAVE 500MB
FORECAST INDICATES THAT BY WED THE GEM STATE MAY BE IN MORE OF A
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW RATHER THAN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT HAS
BEEN BRINGING UP THE UNSTABLE SUBTROPICAL AIR. THIS IS WHY THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOWERS FOR THU AND FRI. THERE IS HOPE TO
BELIEVE THIS AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE EXPECTING THIS. NOT THAT
THERE IS ZERO CHANCE...BUT THAT THE THREAT IS REDUCED. DECREASED
CLOUDINESS BY WED WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP DESPITE THE
SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED OTHER THAN
FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ENOUGH IN BY LATE MORNING TO ALLOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED AND CONTINUE THE ROUND OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING -TSRA. SHOWERS WILL NOT TAPER OFF DURING THE
EVENING AS A MASSIVE MOIST AIR MASS MOVES IN FOR THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS THROUGH MOST OF SAT. WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A CIG IMPACT FOR
THE AIRDROMES...MAINLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS AS THE MOISTURE TENDS
TO THIN BY MID-AFTERNOON...JUST IN TIME FOR THE INCREASED HEATING TO
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP -TSRA. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 220820
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
220 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW SEEN ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING PASSING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. PLENTY OF MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH A BROAD
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NAM/GFS KEEPING TREND OF ACTIVE WEATHER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DESTABILIZATION LEADING TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO UTAH BY SATURDAY MORNING. BOTH GFS/NAM FAVOR A BAND
OF HEAVY PRECIP...0.7 TO 1.0 INCHES IN 6 HOURS...OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST CORNER APPROXIMATELY FROM SODA SPRINGS TO MALAD. BEGAN
RAMPING UP QPF. NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS MODELS PROJECT...BUT AM A BIT
CONCERNED OF THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF PLACEMENT AND
INTENSITY OF RAINFALL WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FLOODING.

NAM INDICATES A DRYING TREND STARTING AROUND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE TRANSITING THE AREA...BUT GFS SHOWS MORE INFLUENCE OF
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM UPPER LOW AND IS A WETTER SOLUTION.
ECMWF SUPPORTS SLIGHTLY DRIER WEATHER SUNDAY FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON POPS OVER THE SAWTOOTHS STARTING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WARRANTED FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO COME TO TERMS WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER
LOW SAGGING INTO THE PUGET SOUND AREA. GFS HAS IT MORE STATIONARY
WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWLY PROGRESSES THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO.
HINSBERGER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE. OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN PRECIP. HEDGES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HEDGES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 220820
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
220 AM MDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW SEEN ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING PASSING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. PLENTY OF MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH A BROAD
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. NAM/GFS KEEPING TREND OF ACTIVE WEATHER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DESTABILIZATION LEADING TO
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO UTAH BY SATURDAY MORNING. BOTH GFS/NAM FAVOR A BAND
OF HEAVY PRECIP...0.7 TO 1.0 INCHES IN 6 HOURS...OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST CORNER APPROXIMATELY FROM SODA SPRINGS TO MALAD. BEGAN
RAMPING UP QPF. NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS MODELS PROJECT...BUT AM A BIT
CONCERNED OF THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF PLACEMENT AND
INTENSITY OF RAINFALL WITH RESPECT TO POTENTIAL FLOODING.

NAM INDICATES A DRYING TREND STARTING AROUND SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
UPPER RIDGE TRANSITING THE AREA...BUT GFS SHOWS MORE INFLUENCE OF
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FROM UPPER LOW AND IS A WETTER SOLUTION.
ECMWF SUPPORTS SLIGHTLY DRIER WEATHER SUNDAY FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. HAVE TRIMMED BACK ON POPS OVER THE SAWTOOTHS STARTING
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WARRANTED FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS MODELS STRUGGLE TO COME TO TERMS WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER
LOW SAGGING INTO THE PUGET SOUND AREA. GFS HAS IT MORE STATIONARY
WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWLY PROGRESSES THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO.
HINSBERGER

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AGAIN TODAY...WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVE. OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL...WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN PRECIP. HEDGES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MOVE TO THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HEDGES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 211939
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
139 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS. SOME STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE TERRAIN AND
INTO THE MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE PLAIN INTO THIS EVENING. MUCH BUT
PROBABLY NOT ALL OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. BECAUSE THE LOW IS
SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO THE AREA...EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWERS
PINWHEELING AROUND THE LOW. AS A RESULT EXPECT COVERAGE TO LESSEN
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LOW WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN UTAH ON
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF THE POSITION OF THE LOW. THE LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN
COLORADO ON SUNDAY...BUT THE MODELS TRY TO BRING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL CUT BACK ON THE COVERAGE SOMEWHAT ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAIN THREATS
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME PONDING OF WATER POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THU NIGHT. MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IS NOT GOING MUCH OF ANYWHERE. LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH IS
EXCHANGED FOR A LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN COAST ON MON.
THIS MAY GIVE THE ACTUAL HOLIDAY OF MEMORIAL DAY A BREAK FROM THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS
BRIEF WESTERLY FLOW...BUT THE LOW IS ALREADY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GEM
STATE AND ITS PROXIMITY MAY STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
TO MAKE LITTLE DIFFERENCE. THE NEW UPPER LOW IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY
BY THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF SEEMS IS A LESS PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH THE LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OVER THE INLAND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD AFTER MON. THE GFS
MOVES IT THROUGH AS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH ON WED. SO THE GFS HAS SOME
HOPE OF CLEARING OUT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...BUT THE
ECMWF IS KNOWN FOR ITS BETTER HANDLING OF CLOSED LOWS LIKE THIS
DURING THE SPRING MONTHS. SO HAVE TRIED TO BLEND THE TWO SOLUTIONS.
NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS A THREAT OF SHOWERS PRETTY MUCH EVERY
DAY...IT COMES DOWN TO WHETHER OR NOT IT IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR
BORDERING ON LIKELY. TEMPERATURES STAYING WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE WARM AIR MASS KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS
JUST ABOVE NORMAL. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS
STRONG ENOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE A WIND EVENT ON WED...BUT WILL
MONITOR FOR NOW TO SEE HOW STABLE THIS GFS SOLUTION IS. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...STABILITY FORECASTS INDICATE AN AFTER-00Z START TO THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION...SO HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF VCTS FROM
PREVIOUS THINKING. DO NOT EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE AS WIDESPREAD BECAUSE
OF THE LATER START TO THE CONVECTION. SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP
DURING THE LATE MORNING ON FRI FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF -TSRA. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 211939
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
139 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS. SOME STORMS WILL MOVE OFF THE TERRAIN AND
INTO THE MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE PLAIN INTO THIS EVENING. MUCH BUT
PROBABLY NOT ALL OF THE ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. THE LOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. BECAUSE THE LOW IS
SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO THE AREA...EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN UTAH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MODELS SHOW SOME SHOWERS
PINWHEELING AROUND THE LOW. AS A RESULT EXPECT COVERAGE TO LESSEN
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LOW WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN UTAH ON
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY FOR SATURDAY
BECAUSE OF THE POSITION OF THE LOW. THE LOW MOVES INTO WESTERN
COLORADO ON SUNDAY...BUT THE MODELS TRY TO BRING IN SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL CUT BACK ON THE COVERAGE SOMEWHAT ON
SUNDAY...BUT STILL GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAIN THREATS
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME PONDING OF WATER POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...SUN NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THU NIGHT. MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IS NOT GOING MUCH OF ANYWHERE. LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH IS
EXCHANGED FOR A LOW DROPPING DOWN FROM THE CANADIAN COAST ON MON.
THIS MAY GIVE THE ACTUAL HOLIDAY OF MEMORIAL DAY A BREAK FROM THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS
BRIEF WESTERLY FLOW...BUT THE LOW IS ALREADY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GEM
STATE AND ITS PROXIMITY MAY STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
TO MAKE LITTLE DIFFERENCE. THE NEW UPPER LOW IS HANDLED DIFFERENTLY
BY THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THE ECMWF SEEMS IS A LESS PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION WITH THE LOW SITTING AND SPINNING OVER THE INLAND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD AFTER MON. THE GFS
MOVES IT THROUGH AS AN OPEN WAVE TROUGH ON WED. SO THE GFS HAS SOME
HOPE OF CLEARING OUT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...BUT THE
ECMWF IS KNOWN FOR ITS BETTER HANDLING OF CLOSED LOWS LIKE THIS
DURING THE SPRING MONTHS. SO HAVE TRIED TO BLEND THE TWO SOLUTIONS.
NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS A THREAT OF SHOWERS PRETTY MUCH EVERY
DAY...IT COMES DOWN TO WHETHER OR NOT IT IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OR
BORDERING ON LIKELY. TEMPERATURES STAYING WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE WARM AIR MASS KEEPING AFTERNOON HIGHS
JUST ABOVE NORMAL. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT...THE TROUGH PASSAGE IS
STRONG ENOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE A WIND EVENT ON WED...BUT WILL
MONITOR FOR NOW TO SEE HOW STABLE THIS GFS SOLUTION IS. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...STABILITY FORECASTS INDICATE AN AFTER-00Z START TO THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION...SO HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF VCTS FROM
PREVIOUS THINKING. DO NOT EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE AS WIDESPREAD BECAUSE
OF THE LATER START TO THE CONVECTION. SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP
DURING THE LATE MORNING ON FRI FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF -TSRA. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 211608
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1008 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATE TO CLOUD COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. SOME STORMS MAY STRAY INTO THE MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE
PLAIN.

VALLE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WITH SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION. MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE THEME OF WET CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS ROTATE THROUGH THE WEST
WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LAPSE
RATES BECOME LESS STABLE. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY FRIDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTING OVER
THE UTAH WASATCH RANGE BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. THE LOW POSITION
FAVORS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS AND IS MODELED WELL BY THE GFS AND NAM. ECMWF PLACES THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...BUT STILL CLIPS THE
BEAR LAKE AREA. GFS PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP IS BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z SATURDAY BETWEEN BEAR LAKE AND POCATELLO WITH 6-HOUR QPF
OF NEARLY 0.75 INCHES. GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH THE TRACK OF
ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY MORNING.
GFS IS NOW RETROGRADING THE LOW INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WHILE THE
ECMWF PROGRESSES IT SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO WEDNESDAY.
HINSBERGER
$$

AVIATION...ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO CNTRAL CA WILL MAINTAIN
THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. HEDGES

FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REPEAT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 211608
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1008 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATE TO CLOUD COVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON SATELLITE
TRENDS THIS MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. SOME STORMS MAY STRAY INTO THE MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE
PLAIN.

VALLE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WITH SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION. MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE THEME OF WET CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS ROTATE THROUGH THE WEST
WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LAPSE
RATES BECOME LESS STABLE. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY FRIDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTING OVER
THE UTAH WASATCH RANGE BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. THE LOW POSITION
FAVORS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS AND IS MODELED WELL BY THE GFS AND NAM. ECMWF PLACES THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...BUT STILL CLIPS THE
BEAR LAKE AREA. GFS PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP IS BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z SATURDAY BETWEEN BEAR LAKE AND POCATELLO WITH 6-HOUR QPF
OF NEARLY 0.75 INCHES. GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH THE TRACK OF
ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY MORNING.
GFS IS NOW RETROGRADING THE LOW INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WHILE THE
ECMWF PROGRESSES IT SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO WEDNESDAY.
HINSBERGER
$$

AVIATION...ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO CNTRAL CA WILL MAINTAIN
THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. HEDGES

FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REPEAT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 210756
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
156 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WITH SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION. MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE THEME OF WET CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS ROTATE THROUGH THE WEST
WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LAPSE
RATES BECOME LESS STABLE. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY FRIDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTING OVER
THE UTAH WASATCH RANGE BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. THE LOW POSITION
FAVORS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS AND IS MODELED WELL BY THE GFS AND NAM. ECMWF PLACES THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...BUT STILL CLIPS THE
BEAR LAKE AREA. GFS PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP IS BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z SATURDAY BETWEEN BEAR LAKE AND POCATELLO WITH 6-HOUR QPF
OF NEARLY 0.75 INCHES. GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH THE TRACK OF
ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY MORNING.
GFS IS NOW RETROGRADING THE LOW INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WHILE THE
ECMWF PROGRESSES IT SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO WEDNESDAY.
HINSBERGER
$$

.AVIATION...ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO CNTRAL CA WILL MAINTAIN
THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. HEDGES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REPEAT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
HEDGES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 210756
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
156 AM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS UPPER LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WITH SOUTHERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION. MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE THEME OF WET CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS ROTATE THROUGH THE WEST
WITH CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS LAPSE
RATES BECOME LESS STABLE. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA BY FRIDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTING OVER
THE UTAH WASATCH RANGE BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. THE LOW POSITION
FAVORS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
HIGHLANDS AND IS MODELED WELL BY THE GFS AND NAM. ECMWF PLACES THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP A BIT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...BUT STILL CLIPS THE
BEAR LAKE AREA. GFS PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP IS BETWEEN 12Z
AND 18Z SATURDAY BETWEEN BEAR LAKE AND POCATELLO WITH 6-HOUR QPF
OF NEARLY 0.75 INCHES. GFS AND ECMWF ARE AT ODDS WITH THE TRACK OF
ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON MONDAY MORNING.
GFS IS NOW RETROGRADING THE LOW INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WHILE THE
ECMWF PROGRESSES IT SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHERN IDAHO WEDNESDAY.
HINSBERGER
$$

.AVIATION...ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO CNTRAL CA WILL MAINTAIN
THE THREAT OF SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. HEDGES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ANOTHER UPPER LOW DROPPING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REPEAT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
HEDGES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 201946
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
146 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA AND UTAH AND ADVANCING INTO IDAHO. ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES ALREADY DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE CURLEW GRASS LANDS AND
ROGERSON. THIS LINE SHOULD ADVANCE TO ABOUT A SUN VALLEY TO IDAHO
FALLS LINE BY 9 PM THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ALSO TRYING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN EXPECTED FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS LESS THAN SEVERE LEVELS.

LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST
TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEFORE TURNING NORTHEAST AND LIFTING
TOWARDS WYOMING ON SATURDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES THURSDAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES...AND INSTABILITY FOR A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN. MOISTURE BEGINS TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WIDESPREAD RAIN AGAIN ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN....EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. RS

.LONG TERM...SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE
TO THE CURRENT LONGWAVE PATTERN. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING IN UNSTABLE SUBTROPICAL AIR. LIKE YESTERDAYS FORECAST...THE
LAST 24 HOURS SHIFTS TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW...SO ONCE AGAIN IT HAS
BEEN PUT OFF. SO POPS ARE LOWER FOR THE LAST DAY...BUT THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS AND
CHANCE TO LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONTINUES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURE SWINGS FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE MIDDLE
60S AT THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ELEVATIONS ALSO CONTINUES...AGAIN
POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY WARMER WED WHEN SKIES MAY CLEAR AT LEAST A LITTLE.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...WIND
SHOULD BE LIGHT TO BREEZY IN MAGNITUDE. MESSICK

$$

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THREATEN EACH
AIRDROME FOR THE MID-AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CIG OR VSBY IMPACT FROM ALL THE MOISTURE...BUT THERE IS A REMOTE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND LOW CIGS...SO IT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED. THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE OCCASIONAL MARGINAL VFR CIGS
HAVE NOT BEEN CAUGHT SO WELL. WHAT MARGINAL VFR CIGS WERE OCCURRING
THIS MORNING SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE MID-AFTERNOON. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 201946
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
146 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA AND UTAH AND ADVANCING INTO IDAHO. ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES ALREADY DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE CURLEW GRASS LANDS AND
ROGERSON. THIS LINE SHOULD ADVANCE TO ABOUT A SUN VALLEY TO IDAHO
FALLS LINE BY 9 PM THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ALSO TRYING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN EXPECTED FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS LESS THAN SEVERE LEVELS.

LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST
TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEFORE TURNING NORTHEAST AND LIFTING
TOWARDS WYOMING ON SATURDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES THURSDAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES...AND INSTABILITY FOR A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN. MOISTURE BEGINS TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WIDESPREAD RAIN AGAIN ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN....EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. RS

.LONG TERM...SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE
TO THE CURRENT LONGWAVE PATTERN. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING IN UNSTABLE SUBTROPICAL AIR. LIKE YESTERDAYS FORECAST...THE
LAST 24 HOURS SHIFTS TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW...SO ONCE AGAIN IT HAS
BEEN PUT OFF. SO POPS ARE LOWER FOR THE LAST DAY...BUT THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS AND
CHANCE TO LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONTINUES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURE SWINGS FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE MIDDLE
60S AT THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ELEVATIONS ALSO CONTINUES...AGAIN
POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY WARMER WED WHEN SKIES MAY CLEAR AT LEAST A LITTLE.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...WIND
SHOULD BE LIGHT TO BREEZY IN MAGNITUDE. MESSICK

$$

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THREATEN EACH
AIRDROME FOR THE MID-AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CIG OR VSBY IMPACT FROM ALL THE MOISTURE...BUT THERE IS A REMOTE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND LOW CIGS...SO IT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED. THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE OCCASIONAL MARGINAL VFR CIGS
HAVE NOT BEEN CAUGHT SO WELL. WHAT MARGINAL VFR CIGS WERE OCCURRING
THIS MORNING SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE MID-AFTERNOON. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 201946
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
146 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA AND UTAH AND ADVANCING INTO IDAHO. ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES ALREADY DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE CURLEW GRASS LANDS AND
ROGERSON. THIS LINE SHOULD ADVANCE TO ABOUT A SUN VALLEY TO IDAHO
FALLS LINE BY 9 PM THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ALSO TRYING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN EXPECTED FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS LESS THAN SEVERE LEVELS.

LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST
TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEFORE TURNING NORTHEAST AND LIFTING
TOWARDS WYOMING ON SATURDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES THURSDAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES...AND INSTABILITY FOR A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN. MOISTURE BEGINS TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WIDESPREAD RAIN AGAIN ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN....EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. RS

.LONG TERM...SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE
TO THE CURRENT LONGWAVE PATTERN. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING IN UNSTABLE SUBTROPICAL AIR. LIKE YESTERDAYS FORECAST...THE
LAST 24 HOURS SHIFTS TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW...SO ONCE AGAIN IT HAS
BEEN PUT OFF. SO POPS ARE LOWER FOR THE LAST DAY...BUT THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS AND
CHANCE TO LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONTINUES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURE SWINGS FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE MIDDLE
60S AT THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ELEVATIONS ALSO CONTINUES...AGAIN
POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY WARMER WED WHEN SKIES MAY CLEAR AT LEAST A LITTLE.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...WIND
SHOULD BE LIGHT TO BREEZY IN MAGNITUDE. MESSICK

$$

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THREATEN EACH
AIRDROME FOR THE MID-AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CIG OR VSBY IMPACT FROM ALL THE MOISTURE...BUT THERE IS A REMOTE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND LOW CIGS...SO IT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED. THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE OCCASIONAL MARGINAL VFR CIGS
HAVE NOT BEEN CAUGHT SO WELL. WHAT MARGINAL VFR CIGS WERE OCCURRING
THIS MORNING SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE MID-AFTERNOON. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 201946
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
146 PM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA AND UTAH AND ADVANCING INTO IDAHO. ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES ALREADY DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE CURLEW GRASS LANDS AND
ROGERSON. THIS LINE SHOULD ADVANCE TO ABOUT A SUN VALLEY TO IDAHO
FALLS LINE BY 9 PM THIS EVENING. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ALSO TRYING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN EXPECTED FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS LESS THAN SEVERE LEVELS.

LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST
TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BEFORE TURNING NORTHEAST AND LIFTING
TOWARDS WYOMING ON SATURDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES THURSDAY...WARMING TEMPERATURES...AND INSTABILITY FOR A
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS RATHER THAN
WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN. MOISTURE BEGINS TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WIDESPREAD RAIN AGAIN ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN....EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. RS

.LONG TERM...SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE
TO THE CURRENT LONGWAVE PATTERN. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING IN UNSTABLE SUBTROPICAL AIR. LIKE YESTERDAYS FORECAST...THE
LAST 24 HOURS SHIFTS TO A MORE WESTERLY FLOW...SO ONCE AGAIN IT HAS
BEEN PUT OFF. SO POPS ARE LOWER FOR THE LAST DAY...BUT THE GENERAL
PATTERN OF SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS AND
CHANCE TO LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONTINUES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURE SWINGS FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE MIDDLE
60S AT THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN ELEVATIONS ALSO CONTINUES...AGAIN
POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY WARMER WED WHEN SKIES MAY CLEAR AT LEAST A LITTLE.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT...OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW...WIND
SHOULD BE LIGHT TO BREEZY IN MAGNITUDE. MESSICK

$$

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THREATEN EACH
AIRDROME FOR THE MID-AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT
ANY CIG OR VSBY IMPACT FROM ALL THE MOISTURE...BUT THERE IS A REMOTE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG AND LOW CIGS...SO IT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED. THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE OCCASIONAL MARGINAL VFR CIGS
HAVE NOT BEEN CAUGHT SO WELL. WHAT MARGINAL VFR CIGS WERE OCCURRING
THIS MORNING SHOULD BE DONE WITH BY THE MID-AFTERNOON. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 201609
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1009 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...WATCHING SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR SIGNS OF ENERGY MOVING
NORTH FROM THE LOW ENTERING CALIFORNIA. NAM12 MODEL SUGGEST THERE
WILL BE SOME ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON BRUSH THE SUN VALLEY AREA AND
THE WEST SIDE WITH POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL
AND HEAVY RAIN. THINK IT WILL BE LESS THAN A FLASH FLOOD TYPE
EVENT. GRASS SEEMS TO BE RECOVERING ON THE OLD BEAVER FIRE BURN
AREA AND REDUCING THE RISK OF SIGNIFICANT RUN OFF. RS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 AM MDT WED MAY 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS UPON US. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST AS IT IS WRAPPED AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN WYOMING. NO CURRENT
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AS AIRMASS HAS BECOME MORE STABLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME RESIDUAL LIGHT RAIN
OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO HOWEVER. A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED OVER THE WEST. WRAP- AROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE FIRST LOW WILL TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS A SECOND LOW
DROPS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS PATTERN
LEAVES CWA IN MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AS THE
LOW SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS ARE
REMARKABLY IN AGREEMENT ON THE PATH OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT
TRANSITS THE WEST AND BEGINS LIFTING ACROSS UTAH BY SATURDAY
MORNING. A THIRD LOW WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM AROUND
VANCOUVER ISLAND...THOUGH THERE IS A DISCREPANCY ON THE PATH OF
THE LOW WITH THE GFS TAKING A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK THAN THE ECMWF.
BOTH SOLUTIONS COME WITH A WIDESPREAD QPF FIELD ACROSS THE AREA.

AVIATION...AS A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVES THRU THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY...SCT SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS
AFTN. A FEW TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTN AND EVE. VFR CIGS/VIS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...WITH BORDERLINE VFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
HEDGES

FIRE WEATHER...AS ONE UPPER LOW AFTER ANOTHER MOVES THROUGH THE
WEST...SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PREVALENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
READINGS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities