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000
FXUS65 KPIH 212114
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
214 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION RATES HAVE
DROPPED FROM OVERNIGHT AND TRENDS ON RADAR SUPPORT LOWER AMOUNTS
GOING FORWARD. SNOW LEVELS HAVE RISEN TODAY FROM AROUND 5800 TO
6000 FEET TO AROUND 6500 TO 7000 FEET AND SEVERAL MOUNTAIN VALLEY
LOCATIONS HAVE CHANGED FROM SNOW TO RAIN TODAY. GOING FORWARD
EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO CONTINUE TO DECLINE AS SNOW LEVELS
FALL TO 4500 TO 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED MAINLY TO MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW ENDING
IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MID-MORNING MONDAY AND IN THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS BY MONDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES. WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE SNAKE PLAIN FOR MONDAY. DSH

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
BRING A SYSTEM INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR CHRISTMAS EVENING
THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING. EXPECT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR VALLEYS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL WHETHER OR NOT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FAST
ENOUGH BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION STOPS. VALLEY FLOORS PARTICULARLY
FROM POCATELLO WESTWARD TO BURLEY MAY SEE JUST A TRACE OF SNOW.
LOOK FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY TO THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CHANCES. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...AN EXITING SYSTEM IS BRINGING MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS
FOR THE TAF SITES ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY. LOOK FOR WINDS TO IMPACT TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT LINGERING MVFR CIGS FOR KPIH AND KBYI BEFORE BECOMING VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO MVFR/IFR FOR KIDA...KPIH
AND KBYI EARLY TO MID EVENING TONIGHT. LOOK FOR KBYI AND KPIH TO
BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND KIDA TO LIFT TO VFR
BY EARLY TO MID TOMORROW AFTERNOON. KSUN SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT IDZ017-020-021.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR
THE IDZ031-032.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR IDZ018.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR
THE IDZ019-025.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 212114
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
214 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION RATES HAVE
DROPPED FROM OVERNIGHT AND TRENDS ON RADAR SUPPORT LOWER AMOUNTS
GOING FORWARD. SNOW LEVELS HAVE RISEN TODAY FROM AROUND 5800 TO
6000 FEET TO AROUND 6500 TO 7000 FEET AND SEVERAL MOUNTAIN VALLEY
LOCATIONS HAVE CHANGED FROM SNOW TO RAIN TODAY. GOING FORWARD
EXPECT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO CONTINUE TO DECLINE AS SNOW LEVELS
FALL TO 4500 TO 5000 FEET OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BE
CONFINED MAINLY TO MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW ENDING
IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MID-MORNING MONDAY AND IN THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS BY MONDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW AMOUNTS
OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES. WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT TO 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE SNAKE PLAIN FOR MONDAY. DSH

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO
BRING A SYSTEM INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR CHRISTMAS EVENING
THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING. EXPECT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR VALLEYS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL WHETHER OR NOT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FAST
ENOUGH BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION STOPS. VALLEY FLOORS PARTICULARLY
FROM POCATELLO WESTWARD TO BURLEY MAY SEE JUST A TRACE OF SNOW.
LOOK FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES CHRISTMAS DAY TO THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO BRING ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CHANCES. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...AN EXITING SYSTEM IS BRINGING MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS
FOR THE TAF SITES ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY. LOOK FOR WINDS TO IMPACT TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT LINGERING MVFR CIGS FOR KPIH AND KBYI BEFORE BECOMING VFR
THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO MVFR/IFR FOR KIDA...KPIH
AND KBYI EARLY TO MID EVENING TONIGHT. LOOK FOR KBYI AND KPIH TO
BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND KIDA TO LIFT TO VFR
BY EARLY TO MID TOMORROW AFTERNOON. KSUN SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT IDZ017-020-021.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR
THE IDZ031-032.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR IDZ018.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR
THE IDZ019-025.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 211029
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
329 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO WITH SNOW
LEVELS BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET AT 3 AM. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE DAY TO AROUND 7000 TO 7500 FEET BY
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING AGAIN QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS WITH
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. EXPECT STRONG
WINDS THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST IDAHO WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
FOR THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN FOR 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
GK

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS EVE/ THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS BACK
IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO CHRISTMAS SYSTEM.
RIDGE CHRISTMAS EVE BREAKS DOWN QUICKLY AHEAD OF FAST MOVING SYSTEM
DROPPING THROUGH THE PACNW. MODELS SIMILAR AGAIN WITH TIMING OF
FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT CHRISTMAS EVE...AND BOTH GUIDANCE AND 850MB WET
BULBS FAVOR SNOW REACHING VALLEY FLOORS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
OPERATIONAL GFS DRIER THAN PARALLEL GFS/ECMWF. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH CHANCE
POPS LOWER ELEVATIONS. MAINTAINED COLDER TEMPS IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE
AND THUS CURRENT QPF ESTIMATES RESULT IN AT LEAST A DUSTING OF SNOW
AT ALL ELEVATIONS. AS CHRISTMAS TROUGH SAGS INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS...RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY BUT MODELS RAPIDLY
LOSE FOCUS AND GET OUT OF PHASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
KEPT WEAK POPS MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPS. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS EAST
IDAHO THIS MORNING. SNOW LEVELS HAVE FALLEN TO ABOUT 5000
FT...LEADING TO A WET SNOWFALL AT KIDA THIS MORNING. VIS/CEILINGS
REMAIN A BROAD MIX ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR/LIFR WHERE SNOW FALLING
AND VFR/MVFR WHERE RAIN FALLING. PRECIPITATION WEAKENS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WEAKENING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AN INCREASE IN WINDS PARTICULARLY FOR SNAKE PLAIN TERMINALS
KBYI/KPIH/KIDA. IMPROVEMENT TO AT LEAST MVFR EXPECTED AT KSUN BY
EVENING. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ESPECIALLY FOR KIDA/KPIH
TO KEEP A CONCERN FOR STRATUS/FOG OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
QUESTIONABLE LATELY WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT RECENT MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH SOME CLEARING ALOFT LEND SOME STRENGTH TO THE IDEA. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT
IDZ017-020-021.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR
THE IDZ031-032.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY IDZ018.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR
THE IDZ019-025.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 211029
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
329 AM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO WITH SNOW
LEVELS BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 FEET AT 3 AM. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO
CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE DAY TO AROUND 7000 TO 7500 FEET BY
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE FALLING AGAIN QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. EXPECT SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS WITH
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. WILL HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. EXPECT STRONG
WINDS THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST IDAHO WITH A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
FOR THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SNAKE RIVER PLAIN FOR 30 MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
GK

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS EVE/ THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS BACK
IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO CHRISTMAS SYSTEM.
RIDGE CHRISTMAS EVE BREAKS DOWN QUICKLY AHEAD OF FAST MOVING SYSTEM
DROPPING THROUGH THE PACNW. MODELS SIMILAR AGAIN WITH TIMING OF
FRONT FOR OVERNIGHT CHRISTMAS EVE...AND BOTH GUIDANCE AND 850MB WET
BULBS FAVOR SNOW REACHING VALLEY FLOORS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
OPERATIONAL GFS DRIER THAN PARALLEL GFS/ECMWF. HAVE NUDGED POPS UP
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS DAY HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH CHANCE
POPS LOWER ELEVATIONS. MAINTAINED COLDER TEMPS IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE
AND THUS CURRENT QPF ESTIMATES RESULT IN AT LEAST A DUSTING OF SNOW
AT ALL ELEVATIONS. AS CHRISTMAS TROUGH SAGS INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS...RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY BUT MODELS RAPIDLY
LOSE FOCUS AND GET OUT OF PHASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
KEPT WEAK POPS MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPS. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS EAST
IDAHO THIS MORNING. SNOW LEVELS HAVE FALLEN TO ABOUT 5000
FT...LEADING TO A WET SNOWFALL AT KIDA THIS MORNING. VIS/CEILINGS
REMAIN A BROAD MIX ACROSS THE AREA WITH IFR/LIFR WHERE SNOW FALLING
AND VFR/MVFR WHERE RAIN FALLING. PRECIPITATION WEAKENS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WEAKENING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AN INCREASE IN WINDS PARTICULARLY FOR SNAKE PLAIN TERMINALS
KBYI/KPIH/KIDA. IMPROVEMENT TO AT LEAST MVFR EXPECTED AT KSUN BY
EVENING. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ESPECIALLY FOR KIDA/KPIH
TO KEEP A CONCERN FOR STRATUS/FOG OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
QUESTIONABLE LATELY WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT RECENT MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH SOME CLEARING ALOFT LEND SOME STRENGTH TO THE IDEA. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT
IDZ017-020-021.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR
THE IDZ031-032.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY IDZ018.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR
THE IDZ019-025.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 202129
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
229 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
IS TRANSPORTING PAC MOISTURE INTO THE NW US TODAY..AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THRU SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT...WITH THE CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS
GETTING THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS DUE TO UPSLOPE. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL
RECEIVE THE LOWEST AMOUNTS. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW IS GENERALLY MILD
TEMPWISE...SO SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGH. THE CENTRAL
MTNS MAY RECEIVE MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FT...WHILE
THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS MAY SEE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW ABOVE 7500 FT.
VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE MAINLY RAIN. THE EASTERN PAC RIDGE
BUILDS BACK UP ON SUNDAY...PUSHING THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE PAC NW
TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL LESSEN THE MOISTURE FEED...WHILE
DIMINISHING PRECIP ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. THE MTNS WILL
STILL SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIP INTO MONDAY...BUT WITH REDUCED
AMOUNTS. PRECIP WILL DIMINSH OVERALL BY MON NIGHT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE DOMINATES THE WESTERN US.

SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUN MORN ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. BY AFTN...WINDS MAY BE GUSTING TO 45
MPH. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU SUN EVE. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE NEXT
MOIST SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING ON
CHRISTMAS EVE OR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY ON THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE COME IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH CHRISTMAS
DAY BEING WET. HOWEVER...THEY STILL DISAGREE ON TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF BRINGS THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVING EVERYONE A WHITE
CHRISTMAS DAY. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS MODEL KEEPS SNOW LEVELS AROUND
5000 TO 5500 FEET. EXPECT BRIEF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WITH RELATIVELY
DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME MOISTURE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...A VERY MOIST SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
FALLING BACK TO IFR/MVFR FOR ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT WINDY
CONDITIONS PARTICULARLY FOR THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC
VALLEY BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUING  THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW EVENING. CIGS WILL START TO IMPROVE BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING AND SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. KIDA MAY BE
THE ONLY EXCEPTION AS MODELS ARE KEEPING MVFR/IFR CIGS OVER KIDA
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MST SUNDAY NIGHT
IDZ017-020-021.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST MONDAY
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ031-032.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST MONDAY
IDZ018.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST MONDAY
ABOVE 7500 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-025.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 200950
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
250 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6 THOUSAND FEET. KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD IN THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. VERY STRONG JET STREAM IN THE PACIFIC WILL DRIVE IN
EXTENSIVE MOISTURE TO SOUTHEAST IDAHO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WHICH WILL START OUT AT ABOUT 5 THOUSAND FEET
TODAY WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE 7 THOUSAND FEET BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS BELOW 6500 FEET THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT ALL LOCATIONS EARLY TONIGHT ABOVE 5 THOUSAND FEET
SHOULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATION. GENERALLY EXPECTING 5 TO 10 INCHES
ABOVE 6 THOUSAND FEET AND POSSIBLE OVER A FOOT ABOVE 7 THOUSAND
FEET THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THE STORM DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER
MOUNTAIN PASSES WHERE BLOWING AND DRIFTING ARE LIKELY. EXPECT RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EVENT IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND
SUNDAY WITH COOLING EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GK

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THRU SATURDAY. MODELS STILL AGREE ON GENERAL
PATTERN BUT GFS/PARALLEL GFS/ECMWF STILL ALL DIFFER ON DETAILS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEK. RIDGE IN PLACE TUE FOR DRIEST DAY
OF THE WEEK. CHRISTMAS SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH PACNW ACROSS EAST IDAHO
CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND REMAINS FURTHER
NORTH WITH SFC/700MB FEATURES. ECMWF FASTEST AND FURTHEST SOUTH WITH
PARALLEL GFS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIP. ECMWF AND
TO SOME EXTENT THE PARALLEL GFS FAVOR SNOW REACHING VALLEY FLOORS BY
CHRISTMAS MORNING. GFS HOLDS ON TO WARMER AIR WITH COLD TEMPS
ARRIVING DURING CHRISTMAS DAY. ALL MODELS FAVOR TRANSITORY RIDGE FOR
FRI/SAT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM DIVING INTO THE PACNW LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. OPTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT FCST FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WHICH
HOLDS BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT...AND AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SNOW TO VALLEY FLOORS. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE MOST AREAS THIS MORNING.
VERY MOIST PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH PACNW AS ADVERTISED TODAY.
PRECIP RETURNS TO CENTRAL MTNS BY LATE MORNING THEN SPREADS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF EAST IDAHO THIS AFTN/EVE. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS PRECIP IN LEADING EDGES OF CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. WARM TEMPS KEEP SNOW LEVELS HIGH AND HEAVIEST PRECIP
ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. KSUN LIKELY ALL SNOW WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
BELOW FIELD MINIMUMS ONCE PRECIP STARTS. KIDA SHIFTING FROM VFR/MVFR
TO RAIN/SNOW MIX AND IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. KBYI/KPIH BOTH STAY
RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY FLIRT WITH IFR CEILINGS
DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST MONDAY
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ031-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST MONDAY
IDZ018.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 200950
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
250 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 6 THOUSAND FEET. KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD IN THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. VERY STRONG JET STREAM IN THE PACIFIC WILL DRIVE IN
EXTENSIVE MOISTURE TO SOUTHEAST IDAHO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EXPECT HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WHICH WILL START OUT AT ABOUT 5 THOUSAND FEET
TODAY WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE 7 THOUSAND FEET BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS BELOW 6500 FEET THROUGH
THE PERIOD...BUT ALL LOCATIONS EARLY TONIGHT ABOVE 5 THOUSAND FEET
SHOULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATION. GENERALLY EXPECTING 5 TO 10 INCHES
ABOVE 6 THOUSAND FEET AND POSSIBLE OVER A FOOT ABOVE 7 THOUSAND
FEET THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THE STORM DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY OVER
MOUNTAIN PASSES WHERE BLOWING AND DRIFTING ARE LIKELY. EXPECT RAIN
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE EVENT IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL BOTH TODAY AND
SUNDAY WITH COOLING EXPECTED MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
GK

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THRU SATURDAY. MODELS STILL AGREE ON GENERAL
PATTERN BUT GFS/PARALLEL GFS/ECMWF STILL ALL DIFFER ON DETAILS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEK. RIDGE IN PLACE TUE FOR DRIEST DAY
OF THE WEEK. CHRISTMAS SYSTEM DROPS THROUGH PACNW ACROSS EAST IDAHO
CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY. GFS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND REMAINS FURTHER
NORTH WITH SFC/700MB FEATURES. ECMWF FASTEST AND FURTHEST SOUTH WITH
PARALLEL GFS SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIP. ECMWF AND
TO SOME EXTENT THE PARALLEL GFS FAVOR SNOW REACHING VALLEY FLOORS BY
CHRISTMAS MORNING. GFS HOLDS ON TO WARMER AIR WITH COLD TEMPS
ARRIVING DURING CHRISTMAS DAY. ALL MODELS FAVOR TRANSITORY RIDGE FOR
FRI/SAT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM DIVING INTO THE PACNW LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. OPTED TO MAINTAIN CURRENT FCST FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WHICH
HOLDS BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT...AND AT LEAST A
CHANCE OF SNOW TO VALLEY FLOORS. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE MOST AREAS THIS MORNING.
VERY MOIST PACIFIC SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH PACNW AS ADVERTISED TODAY.
PRECIP RETURNS TO CENTRAL MTNS BY LATE MORNING THEN SPREADS ACROSS
REMAINDER OF EAST IDAHO THIS AFTN/EVE. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL FOCUS PRECIP IN LEADING EDGES OF CENTRAL MTNS AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. WARM TEMPS KEEP SNOW LEVELS HIGH AND HEAVIEST PRECIP
ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. KSUN LIKELY ALL SNOW WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING
BELOW FIELD MINIMUMS ONCE PRECIP STARTS. KIDA SHIFTING FROM VFR/MVFR
TO RAIN/SNOW MIX AND IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. KBYI/KPIH BOTH STAY
RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY FLIRT WITH IFR CEILINGS
DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIP. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST MONDAY
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ031-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST MONDAY
IDZ018.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 200212
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
712 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING AS
RAIN HAS TURNED OVER TO SNOW IN THE UPPER VALLEY WITH DECREASING
RADAR RETURNS/PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. ADDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE TONIGHT. SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

A MINOR UPPER TROF WILL MOVE THRU ID TODAY BRINGING LIGHT MTN SNOW
AND VALLEY RAIN THIS AFTN AND EVE. LATE TONIGHT...THE PRECIP WILL
SHIFT MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TRANSPORT SUBSTANTIAL PAC MOISTURE
INTO THE NW US. THIS TYPE OF FLOW FAVORS THE MTNS...WITH WESTERN
SLOPES CATCHING THE MOST PRECIP DUE TO UPSLOPE. PRECIP WILL
INTENSIFY OVER THE MTNS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE
HEAVY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP. WESTERLY FLOW IS RELATIVELY MILD TEMPWISE...SO SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. PRECIP WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS
BY SAT NIGHT...BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE
MTNS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE TO OVER A FOOT ABOVE 7000 FT IN
THE CENTRAL MTNS BY SUN EVE...AND 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN
THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PAC BEGINS
TO BUILD UP SUN NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE PAC
NW TO MORE NWRLY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE FLOW OF PAC MOISTURE...AND
REDUCE THE PRECIP ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY.

THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SUCH AS RIDGE TOPS AND HIGHER PASSES. STRONG SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY SUN
AFTN AND EVE. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MORE STABLE WEATHER IS HEADED
OUR WAY AS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE DIMINISHES ON ACCOUNT OF A
BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE PAC NW. FAIRLY WEAK POPS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON ACCOUNT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. ECMWF HOLDS ON TO MUCH MORE
MOISTURE THAN GFS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT ALSO MAINTAINS A
FLATTER RIDGE. GEM/DGEX SOLUTIONS A BIT MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF...BUT NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP. MODELS STILL
PROJECTING UPPER TROUGH TO DROP INTO PAC NW CHRISTMAS EVE AND OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF
ON A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT...IN FAVOR OF A MODERATE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE AN INFLOW OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD RAISE SNOW LEVELS OFF THE VALLEY FLOOR...BUT
SNOW LEVELS FALLING AGAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
DETERIORATING AT KSUN WITH SNOW BEGINNING JUST RECENTLY. HRRR
SHOWING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE AROUND MID-AFTERNOON FOR KSUN
THOUGH TEMPS MAY WARM ENOUGH TO SEE A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN/SNOW MIX.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CEILINGS LOW THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE THE OTHER TERMINALS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL
LIKELY SEE A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...EVEN AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS PASSED. HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025-031-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
IDZ018.
&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KPIH 200212
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
712 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING AS
RAIN HAS TURNED OVER TO SNOW IN THE UPPER VALLEY WITH DECREASING
RADAR RETURNS/PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST. ADDED A MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG WITH PARTIAL CLEARING LATE TONIGHT. SEE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

A MINOR UPPER TROF WILL MOVE THRU ID TODAY BRINGING LIGHT MTN SNOW
AND VALLEY RAIN THIS AFTN AND EVE. LATE TONIGHT...THE PRECIP WILL
SHIFT MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETS UP ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TRANSPORT SUBSTANTIAL PAC MOISTURE
INTO THE NW US. THIS TYPE OF FLOW FAVORS THE MTNS...WITH WESTERN
SLOPES CATCHING THE MOST PRECIP DUE TO UPSLOPE. PRECIP WILL
INTENSIFY OVER THE MTNS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE
HEAVY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THE CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST
PRECIP. WESTERLY FLOW IS RELATIVELY MILD TEMPWISE...SO SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. PRECIP WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS
BY SAT NIGHT...BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE
MTNS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE TO OVER A FOOT ABOVE 7000 FT IN
THE CENTRAL MTNS BY SUN EVE...AND 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN
THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PAC BEGINS
TO BUILD UP SUN NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE PAC
NW TO MORE NWRLY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE FLOW OF PAC MOISTURE...AND
REDUCE THE PRECIP ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY.

THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SUCH AS RIDGE TOPS AND HIGHER PASSES. STRONG SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY SUN
AFTN AND EVE. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MORE STABLE WEATHER IS HEADED
OUR WAY AS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE DIMINISHES ON ACCOUNT OF A
BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE PAC NW. FAIRLY WEAK POPS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON ACCOUNT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. ECMWF HOLDS ON TO MUCH MORE
MOISTURE THAN GFS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT ALSO MAINTAINS A
FLATTER RIDGE. GEM/DGEX SOLUTIONS A BIT MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF...BUT NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP. MODELS STILL
PROJECTING UPPER TROUGH TO DROP INTO PAC NW CHRISTMAS EVE AND OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF
ON A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT...IN FAVOR OF A MODERATE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE AN INFLOW OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD RAISE SNOW LEVELS OFF THE VALLEY FLOOR...BUT
SNOW LEVELS FALLING AGAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM. HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
DETERIORATING AT KSUN WITH SNOW BEGINNING JUST RECENTLY. HRRR
SHOWING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE AROUND MID-AFTERNOON FOR KSUN
THOUGH TEMPS MAY WARM ENOUGH TO SEE A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN/SNOW MIX.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CEILINGS LOW THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE THE OTHER TERMINALS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL
LIKELY SEE A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...EVEN AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS PASSED. HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025-031-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
IDZ018.
&&

$$












000
FXUS65 KPIH 191957
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1257 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A MINOR UPPER TROF WILL MOVE
THRU ID TODAY BRINGING LIGHT MTN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN THIS AFTN
AND EVE. LATE TONIGHT...THE PRECIP WILL SHIFT MAINLY TO THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ON
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TRANSPORT SUBSTANTIAL PAC MOISTURE INTO THE
NW US. THIS TYPE OF FLOW FAVORS THE MTNS...WITH WESTERN SLOPES
CATCHING THE MOST PRECIP DUE TO UPSLOPE. PRECIP WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE MTNS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE HEAVY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.
WESTERLY FLOW IS RELATIVELY MILD TEMPWISE...SO SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE. PRECIP WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS BY SAT
NIGHT...BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE MTNS.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE TO OVER A FOOT ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE
CENTRAL MTNS BY SUN EVE...AND 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PAC BEGINS TO
BUILD UP SUN NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE PAC
NW TO MORE NWRLY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE FLOW OF PAC MOISTURE...AND
REDUCE THE PRECIP ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY.

THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SUCH AS RIDGE TOPS AND HIGHER PASSES. STRONG SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY SUN
AFTN AND EVE. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MORE STABLE WEATHER IS HEADED
OUR WAY AS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE DIMINISHES ON ACCOUNT OF A
BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE PAC NW. FAIRLY WEAK POPS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON ACCOUNT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. ECMWF HOLDS ON TO MUCH MORE
MOISTURE THAN GFS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT ALSO MAINTAINS A
FLATTER RIDGE. GEM/DGEX SOLUTIONS A BIT MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF...BUT NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP. MODELS STILL
PROJECTING UPPER TROUGH TO DROP INTO PAC NW CHRISTMAS EVE AND OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF
ON A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT...IN FAVOR OF A MODERATE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE AN INFLOW OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD RAISE SNOW LEVELS OFF THE VALLEY FLOOR...BUT
SNOW LEVELS FALLING AGAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.
HINSBERGER

&&

.AVIATION...WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
DETERIORATING AT KSUN WITH SNOW BEGINNING JUST RECENTLY. HRRR
SHOWING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE AROUND MID-AFTERNOON FOR KSUN
THOUGH TEMPS MAY WARM ENOUGH TO SEE A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN/SNOW MIX.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CEILINGS LOW THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE THE OTHER TERMINALS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL
LIKELY SEE A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...EVEN AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS PASSED. HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025-031-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT IDZ018.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 191957
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1257 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A MINOR UPPER TROF WILL MOVE
THRU ID TODAY BRINGING LIGHT MTN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN THIS AFTN
AND EVE. LATE TONIGHT...THE PRECIP WILL SHIFT MAINLY TO THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ON
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TRANSPORT SUBSTANTIAL PAC MOISTURE INTO THE
NW US. THIS TYPE OF FLOW FAVORS THE MTNS...WITH WESTERN SLOPES
CATCHING THE MOST PRECIP DUE TO UPSLOPE. PRECIP WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE MTNS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE HEAVY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.
WESTERLY FLOW IS RELATIVELY MILD TEMPWISE...SO SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE. PRECIP WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS BY SAT
NIGHT...BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE MTNS.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE TO OVER A FOOT ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE
CENTRAL MTNS BY SUN EVE...AND 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PAC BEGINS TO
BUILD UP SUN NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE PAC
NW TO MORE NWRLY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE FLOW OF PAC MOISTURE...AND
REDUCE THE PRECIP ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY.

THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SUCH AS RIDGE TOPS AND HIGHER PASSES. STRONG SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY SUN
AFTN AND EVE. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MORE STABLE WEATHER IS HEADED
OUR WAY AS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE DIMINISHES ON ACCOUNT OF A
BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE PAC NW. FAIRLY WEAK POPS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON ACCOUNT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. ECMWF HOLDS ON TO MUCH MORE
MOISTURE THAN GFS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT ALSO MAINTAINS A
FLATTER RIDGE. GEM/DGEX SOLUTIONS A BIT MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF...BUT NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP. MODELS STILL
PROJECTING UPPER TROUGH TO DROP INTO PAC NW CHRISTMAS EVE AND OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF
ON A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT...IN FAVOR OF A MODERATE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE AN INFLOW OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD RAISE SNOW LEVELS OFF THE VALLEY FLOOR...BUT
SNOW LEVELS FALLING AGAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.
HINSBERGER

&&

.AVIATION...WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
DETERIORATING AT KSUN WITH SNOW BEGINNING JUST RECENTLY. HRRR
SHOWING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE AROUND MID-AFTERNOON FOR KSUN
THOUGH TEMPS MAY WARM ENOUGH TO SEE A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN/SNOW MIX.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CEILINGS LOW THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE THE OTHER TERMINALS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL
LIKELY SEE A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...EVEN AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS PASSED. HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025-031-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT IDZ018.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 191957
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1257 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A MINOR UPPER TROF WILL MOVE
THRU ID TODAY BRINGING LIGHT MTN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN THIS AFTN
AND EVE. LATE TONIGHT...THE PRECIP WILL SHIFT MAINLY TO THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ON
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TRANSPORT SUBSTANTIAL PAC MOISTURE INTO THE
NW US. THIS TYPE OF FLOW FAVORS THE MTNS...WITH WESTERN SLOPES
CATCHING THE MOST PRECIP DUE TO UPSLOPE. PRECIP WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE MTNS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE HEAVY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.
WESTERLY FLOW IS RELATIVELY MILD TEMPWISE...SO SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE. PRECIP WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS BY SAT
NIGHT...BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE MTNS.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE TO OVER A FOOT ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE
CENTRAL MTNS BY SUN EVE...AND 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PAC BEGINS TO
BUILD UP SUN NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE PAC
NW TO MORE NWRLY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE FLOW OF PAC MOISTURE...AND
REDUCE THE PRECIP ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY.

THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SUCH AS RIDGE TOPS AND HIGHER PASSES. STRONG SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY SUN
AFTN AND EVE. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MORE STABLE WEATHER IS HEADED
OUR WAY AS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE DIMINISHES ON ACCOUNT OF A
BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE PAC NW. FAIRLY WEAK POPS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON ACCOUNT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. ECMWF HOLDS ON TO MUCH MORE
MOISTURE THAN GFS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT ALSO MAINTAINS A
FLATTER RIDGE. GEM/DGEX SOLUTIONS A BIT MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF...BUT NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP. MODELS STILL
PROJECTING UPPER TROUGH TO DROP INTO PAC NW CHRISTMAS EVE AND OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF
ON A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT...IN FAVOR OF A MODERATE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE AN INFLOW OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD RAISE SNOW LEVELS OFF THE VALLEY FLOOR...BUT
SNOW LEVELS FALLING AGAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.
HINSBERGER

&&

.AVIATION...WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
DETERIORATING AT KSUN WITH SNOW BEGINNING JUST RECENTLY. HRRR
SHOWING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE AROUND MID-AFTERNOON FOR KSUN
THOUGH TEMPS MAY WARM ENOUGH TO SEE A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN/SNOW MIX.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CEILINGS LOW THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE THE OTHER TERMINALS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL
LIKELY SEE A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...EVEN AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS PASSED. HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025-031-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT IDZ018.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 191957
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1257 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A MINOR UPPER TROF WILL MOVE
THRU ID TODAY BRINGING LIGHT MTN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN THIS AFTN
AND EVE. LATE TONIGHT...THE PRECIP WILL SHIFT MAINLY TO THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP ON
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TRANSPORT SUBSTANTIAL PAC MOISTURE INTO THE
NW US. THIS TYPE OF FLOW FAVORS THE MTNS...WITH WESTERN SLOPES
CATCHING THE MOST PRECIP DUE TO UPSLOPE. PRECIP WILL INTENSIFY
OVER THE MTNS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND CONTINUE HEAVY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE CENTRAL MTNS SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.
WESTERLY FLOW IS RELATIVELY MILD TEMPWISE...SO SNOW LEVELS WILL BE
ON THE HIGH SIDE. PRECIP WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE VALLEYS BY SAT
NIGHT...BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE MTNS.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE TO OVER A FOOT ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE
CENTRAL MTNS BY SUN EVE...AND 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FT IN THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PAC BEGINS TO
BUILD UP SUN NIGHT...WHICH WILL PUSH THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE PAC
NW TO MORE NWRLY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE FLOW OF PAC MOISTURE...AND
REDUCE THE PRECIP ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON MONDAY.

THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WINDS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
SUCH AS RIDGE TOPS AND HIGHER PASSES. STRONG SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY SUN
AFTN AND EVE. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. MORE STABLE WEATHER IS HEADED
OUR WAY AS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE DIMINISHES ON ACCOUNT OF A
BUILDING RIDGE INTO THE PAC NW. FAIRLY WEAK POPS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ON ACCOUNT OF UPSLOPE FLOW. ECMWF HOLDS ON TO MUCH MORE
MOISTURE THAN GFS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT ALSO MAINTAINS A
FLATTER RIDGE. GEM/DGEX SOLUTIONS A BIT MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF...BUT NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIP. MODELS STILL
PROJECTING UPPER TROUGH TO DROP INTO PAC NW CHRISTMAS EVE AND OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON CHRISTMAS DAY. GFS/ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF
ON A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A HEAVY
SNOW EVENT...IN FAVOR OF A MODERATE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE AN INFLOW OF WARMER AIR AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD RAISE SNOW LEVELS OFF THE VALLEY FLOOR...BUT
SNOW LEVELS FALLING AGAIN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.
HINSBERGER

&&

.AVIATION...WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY
DETERIORATING AT KSUN WITH SNOW BEGINNING JUST RECENTLY. HRRR
SHOWING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE AROUND MID-AFTERNOON FOR KSUN
THOUGH TEMPS MAY WARM ENOUGH TO SEE A CHANGE OVER TO RAIN/SNOW MIX.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP CEILINGS LOW THROUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE THE OTHER TERMINALS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN WILL
LIKELY SEE A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...EVEN AFTER THE UPPER DISTURBANCE HAS PASSED. HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025-031-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT IDZ018.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 191051
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
351 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST IDAHO TODAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH THE SAME IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS
POTENTIALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. SYSTEM MOVING VERY QUICKLY SO HEAVY
AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED. EXTENSIVE PACIFIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS ABOVE
6 THOUSAND FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AT 4500 FEET SATURDAY
EVENING THEN RISE TO ABOVE 6500 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
FALLING AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
DIFFICULT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH PASSES ABOVE 7 THOUSAND FEET EXPECTED TO GET OVER A
FOOT OF SNOW. THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN IS EXPECTED TO GET MAINLY RAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE DIFFICULT AND HEAVILY
ELEVATION BASED. 5 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 3 TO 6
INCH RANGE WITH 6 TO 12 INCHES FROM 6 THOUSAND TO 7500 FEET AND
ABOVE A FOOT POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT. ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS ROADS.
GK

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THRU FRIDAY. WEEKEND SYSTEM COMING TO AN END
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH LINGERING PRECIP HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST HIGHLANDS. UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES FOR TUESDAY. NEXT
SYSTEM DROPS INTO PACNW TUESDAY NIGHT AND REACHES EAST IDAHO FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE. GFS AND EC BOTH SHARPEN THE TROUGH AS IT DROPS
THROUGH THE PACNW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE
AHEAD OF PRECIP ONSET LATE IN THE DAY MOST AREAS. TROUGH
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES EAST IDAHO WITH 700MB AND SFC
FEATURES DEEPENING SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN UTAH/EAST IDAHO/WESTERN
WY. EACH MODEL KEEPS 500MB TROUGH OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WITH CLOSED
700MB CIRCULATION. CURRENT SOLUTIONS REMAIN COLD WITH SHARP TEMP
DIFFERENTIAL CHRISTMAS EVE TO CHRISTMAS DAY...AND COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR POTENTIAL FOR WHITE
CHRISTMAS. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF VFR/MVFR IN PLACE OVER EAST IDAHO EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOIST SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING
EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIP INTO CENTRAL MTNS INCLUDING KSUN BY LATE
MORNING WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO IFR AND FIELD MINIMUMS EARLY AFTN.
PRECIP SPREADS EAST INTO SNAKE PLAIN IN THE EARLY AFTN AS WELL WITH
CONDITIONS DROPPING TO IFR BY EVENING. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
RAIN AT KBYI/KPIH/KIDA TERMINALS. SYSTEM SLIPS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
PRECIP ENDING KSUN/KBYI DURING THE EVENING AND SOME CLEARING
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. VCSH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PAST 06Z FOR
KPIH/KIDA WITH FAVORABLE WEST FLOW FOR CONTINUED STRATUS AND LIGHT
PRECIP. DEPENDING ON TIMING...LINGERING SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW
FOR KIDA/KPIH IF TEMPS FALL FAST ENOUGH BEFORE PRECIP FULLY ENDS. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025-031-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT IDZ018.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 191051
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
351 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST IDAHO TODAY WITH
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH THE SAME IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS
POTENTIALLY THROUGH TONIGHT. SYSTEM MOVING VERY QUICKLY SO HEAVY
AMOUNTS NOT EXPECTED. EXTENSIVE PACIFIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS ABOVE
6 THOUSAND FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AT 4500 FEET SATURDAY
EVENING THEN RISE TO ABOVE 6500 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
FALLING AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY
DIFFICULT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND WITH PASSES ABOVE 7 THOUSAND FEET EXPECTED TO GET OVER A
FOOT OF SNOW. THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN IS EXPECTED TO GET MAINLY RAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE DIFFICULT AND HEAVILY
ELEVATION BASED. 5 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 3 TO 6
INCH RANGE WITH 6 TO 12 INCHES FROM 6 THOUSAND TO 7500 FEET AND
ABOVE A FOOT POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT. ANYONE TRAVELING IN THE
MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS ROADS.
GK

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THRU FRIDAY. WEEKEND SYSTEM COMING TO AN END
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH LINGERING PRECIP HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST HIGHLANDS. UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES FOR TUESDAY. NEXT
SYSTEM DROPS INTO PACNW TUESDAY NIGHT AND REACHES EAST IDAHO FOR
CHRISTMAS EVE. GFS AND EC BOTH SHARPEN THE TROUGH AS IT DROPS
THROUGH THE PACNW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPS ON CHRISTMAS EVE
AHEAD OF PRECIP ONSET LATE IN THE DAY MOST AREAS. TROUGH
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AS IT CROSSES EAST IDAHO WITH 700MB AND SFC
FEATURES DEEPENING SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN UTAH/EAST IDAHO/WESTERN
WY. EACH MODEL KEEPS 500MB TROUGH OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE WITH CLOSED
700MB CIRCULATION. CURRENT SOLUTIONS REMAIN COLD WITH SHARP TEMP
DIFFERENTIAL CHRISTMAS EVE TO CHRISTMAS DAY...AND COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR POTENTIAL FOR WHITE
CHRISTMAS. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...MIX OF VFR/MVFR IN PLACE OVER EAST IDAHO EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOIST SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING
EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIP INTO CENTRAL MTNS INCLUDING KSUN BY LATE
MORNING WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO IFR AND FIELD MINIMUMS EARLY AFTN.
PRECIP SPREADS EAST INTO SNAKE PLAIN IN THE EARLY AFTN AS WELL WITH
CONDITIONS DROPPING TO IFR BY EVENING. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
RAIN AT KBYI/KPIH/KIDA TERMINALS. SYSTEM SLIPS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH
PRECIP ENDING KSUN/KBYI DURING THE EVENING AND SOME CLEARING
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. VCSH NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PAST 06Z FOR
KPIH/KIDA WITH FAVORABLE WEST FLOW FOR CONTINUED STRATUS AND LIGHT
PRECIP. DEPENDING ON TIMING...LINGERING SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW
FOR KIDA/KPIH IF TEMPS FALL FAST ENOUGH BEFORE PRECIP FULLY ENDS. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT ABOVE 6000 FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025-031-032.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT IDZ018.

&&

$$









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