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000
FXUS65 KPIH 050930
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
330 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT TO EXIT EASTERN IDAHO
THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARD THE PANHANDLE FROM
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SE IDAHO THIS MORNING. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH TO AID IN ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SNOW IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINE
IN PLACE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE 7000 FT. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN EASTERN IDAHO LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ESPECIALLY WITH MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE SNAKE PLAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. INFLUENCES OF THIS TROUGH TO QUICKLY EXIT OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN TOMORROW. WITH
THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE
COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RESULTING FROM THE PASSAGE OF FRIDAY`S
COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
AT FREEZING...BELOW FREEZING IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE FROST AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP GRADUALLY BEGINNING MONDAY. PETERSON/DMH

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO
BEGIN THIS PERIOD WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PASS EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO SOME AREAS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTING UP THEREAFTER WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL WEATHER FORECAST NEXT WEEK. PETERSON/DMH


&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH PANHANDLE INTO
MONTANA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH COMPLEX MIX OF CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST
IDAHO. MAIN COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION.
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY EARLY THIS MORNING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE MORNING THEN
INCREASE AGAIN WITH GOOD MIXING FOR THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE BAND
IN EASTERN HIGHLANDS SHOULD PUSH EAST WITH THE FRONT LEAVING
SECONDARY PRECIP BAND IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY...SWINGING
INTO THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN AND THEN EASTERN HIGHLANDS LATER TODAY.
TEMPS REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL MTNS. KSUN SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE SNOW
LEVEL WITH PRECIP REMAINING ALL RAIN TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY
AT KPIH/KIDA/KBYI THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING BELOW 12KTS WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. DMH


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH MOST OF EAST IDAHO
FIRE DISTRICT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN COOLER AIRMASS. PRECIP
BAND EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND AT LEAST IN CENTRAL MTNS...WILL REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW ABOVE 7000 FT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS
ARE THE ONLY EXPECTED IMPACT AT THIS TIME. TREND WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK REMAINS DRY WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY BREEZY. DMH


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR IDZ021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
IDZ018-032.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 050930
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
330 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT TO EXIT EASTERN IDAHO
THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARD THE PANHANDLE FROM
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SE IDAHO THIS MORNING. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH TO AID IN ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SNOW IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINE
IN PLACE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE 7000 FT. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN EASTERN IDAHO LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ESPECIALLY WITH MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE SNAKE PLAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. INFLUENCES OF THIS TROUGH TO QUICKLY EXIT OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN TOMORROW. WITH
THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE
COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RESULTING FROM THE PASSAGE OF FRIDAY`S
COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
AT FREEZING...BELOW FREEZING IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE FROST AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP GRADUALLY BEGINNING MONDAY. PETERSON/DMH

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO
BEGIN THIS PERIOD WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PASS EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO SOME AREAS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTING UP THEREAFTER WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL WEATHER FORECAST NEXT WEEK. PETERSON/DMH


&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH PANHANDLE INTO
MONTANA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH COMPLEX MIX OF CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST
IDAHO. MAIN COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION.
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY EARLY THIS MORNING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE MORNING THEN
INCREASE AGAIN WITH GOOD MIXING FOR THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE BAND
IN EASTERN HIGHLANDS SHOULD PUSH EAST WITH THE FRONT LEAVING
SECONDARY PRECIP BAND IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY...SWINGING
INTO THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN AND THEN EASTERN HIGHLANDS LATER TODAY.
TEMPS REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL MTNS. KSUN SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE SNOW
LEVEL WITH PRECIP REMAINING ALL RAIN TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY
AT KPIH/KIDA/KBYI THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING BELOW 12KTS WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. DMH


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH MOST OF EAST IDAHO
FIRE DISTRICT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN COOLER AIRMASS. PRECIP
BAND EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND AT LEAST IN CENTRAL MTNS...WILL REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW ABOVE 7000 FT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS
ARE THE ONLY EXPECTED IMPACT AT THIS TIME. TREND WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK REMAINS DRY WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY BREEZY. DMH


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR IDZ021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
IDZ018-032.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 050930
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
330 AM MDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT TO EXIT EASTERN IDAHO
THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDING TOWARD THE PANHANDLE FROM
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SE IDAHO THIS MORNING. DEEP UPPER
TROUGH TO AID IN ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...SNOW IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WILL KEEP WINTER HEADLINE
IN PLACE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE 7000 FT. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN EASTERN IDAHO LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ESPECIALLY WITH MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE SNAKE PLAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. INFLUENCES OF THIS TROUGH TO QUICKLY EXIT OUR AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN TOMORROW. WITH
THAT SKIES WILL CLEAR. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE
COOLER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN RESULTING FROM THE PASSAGE OF FRIDAY`S
COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR
AT FREEZING...BELOW FREEZING IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE FROST AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP GRADUALLY BEGINNING MONDAY. PETERSON/DMH

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO
BEGIN THIS PERIOD WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PASS EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO SOME AREAS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTING UP THEREAFTER WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL WEATHER FORECAST NEXT WEEK. PETERSON/DMH


&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SWING THROUGH PANHANDLE INTO
MONTANA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH COMPLEX MIX OF CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST
IDAHO. MAIN COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION.
WINDS REMAIN BREEZY EARLY THIS MORNING IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONTAL
PASSAGE BUT SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE MORNING THEN
INCREASE AGAIN WITH GOOD MIXING FOR THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE BAND
IN EASTERN HIGHLANDS SHOULD PUSH EAST WITH THE FRONT LEAVING
SECONDARY PRECIP BAND IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY...SWINGING
INTO THE UPPER SNAKE PLAIN AND THEN EASTERN HIGHLANDS LATER TODAY.
TEMPS REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL MTNS. KSUN SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE SNOW
LEVEL WITH PRECIP REMAINING ALL RAIN TODAY. STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY
AT KPIH/KIDA/KBYI THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING BELOW 12KTS WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALL SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. DMH


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH MOST OF EAST IDAHO
FIRE DISTRICT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BUT HUMIDITIES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN COOLER AIRMASS. PRECIP
BAND EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTNS SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHEAST
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND AT LEAST IN CENTRAL MTNS...WILL REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW ABOVE 7000 FT. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM
PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BUT SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS
ARE THE ONLY EXPECTED IMPACT AT THIS TIME. TREND WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK REMAINS DRY WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY BREEZY. DMH


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR IDZ021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
IDZ018-032.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 050252
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
852 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH
FORECAST GRIDS WITH OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL TRENDS. MID LEVEL
FRONTAL CIRCULATION HAS SET UP OVER THE AREA...AND THIS COMBINED
WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND JET DYNAMICS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP
CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACNW HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS COMBINED WITH A DOWNWARD NUDGE IN SNOW
LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ANTICIPATED IMPACTS. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING GUSTY WINDS. AD


&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...ELONGATED CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLOMBIA SOUTHWARD THROUGH OREGON. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY
WOBBLE EASTWARD THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE RAPIDLY LIFTING OUT OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS IS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND THREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. WHAT THIS MEANS IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY...AND ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER ON
SUNDAY. THIS COLD COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
MEAN GRADUALLY FALLING SNOW LEVELS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND CONSIDERING IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND HAVE MADE THE DECISION TO
HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM
NOON SATURDAY THROUGH 9 AM SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL MOUNTAIN ZONES ABOVE
7000 FT. THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL NEED TO DRESS FOR
THE COLD AND WET CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY SLUSH ON
ROADWAYS AT PASS LEVEL AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. WILL ALSO BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
LESS THAN ONE INCH. A DRY SLOT WILL PUNCH ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN LATE TONIGHT...ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THERE BY
SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ACROSS THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
MORNING AS DRYER AIR RAPIDLY RACES INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. EXPECT DRY BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. AD

LONG TERM...RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM
AS MAINLY DRY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PASS THROUGH MONTANA ON MONDAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH...ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER. A SIMILAR DISTURBANCE MAY
RIPPLE THROUGH THE FLOW AROUND MIDWEEK AS WELL...WITH AGAIN
INCREASED SHOWER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH. GUIDANCE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN ITS DEPICTION OF INDICATING A BUILDING
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST BY LATE WEEK... LENDING INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED MODERATION OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
ABOVE NORMAL FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AD

AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WASHINGTON AND
OREGON IS STARTING TO BRING BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...LOOK FOR VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
FOR KSUN...KIDA AND TO AN LESSER EXTENT FOR KPIH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EXPECT VICINITY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
FOR KPIH...KIDA AND KSUN. ALSO...LOOK FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WYATT

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY FOR ZONE 427 AS WELL AS 413 BELOW 5000 FEET FROM 1 TO 10
PM.  EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THESE
ZONES WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY AROUND 13 TO 20 PERCENT. LOOK FOR
WINDY CONDITIONS IN THOSE ZONES SATURDAY AS WELL BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER... HUMIDITY WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT WETTING RAINS TODAY AND SATURDAY MAINLY
IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES 475...476 AND 422 AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST
THROUGH NORTHERN IDAHO.  ALSO...LOOK FOR 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE
7000 FEET MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ413-427.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 9 AM MDT SUNDAY
FOR IDZ018-032.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 050252
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
852 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...DID A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH
FORECAST GRIDS WITH OBSERVATIONAL AND MODEL TRENDS. MID LEVEL
FRONTAL CIRCULATION HAS SET UP OVER THE AREA...AND THIS COMBINED
WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND JET DYNAMICS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEEP
CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACNW HAS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS COMBINED WITH A DOWNWARD NUDGE IN SNOW
LEVELS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ANTICIPATED IMPACTS. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE MAIN IMPACT BEING GUSTY WINDS. AD


&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...ELONGATED CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLOMBIA SOUTHWARD THROUGH OREGON. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY
WOBBLE EASTWARD THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE RAPIDLY LIFTING OUT OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS IS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND THREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. WHAT THIS MEANS IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY...AND ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER ON
SUNDAY. THIS COLD COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
MEAN GRADUALLY FALLING SNOW LEVELS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND CONSIDERING IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND HAVE MADE THE DECISION TO
HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM
NOON SATURDAY THROUGH 9 AM SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL MOUNTAIN ZONES ABOVE
7000 FT. THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL NEED TO DRESS FOR
THE COLD AND WET CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY SLUSH ON
ROADWAYS AT PASS LEVEL AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. WILL ALSO BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
LESS THAN ONE INCH. A DRY SLOT WILL PUNCH ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN LATE TONIGHT...ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THERE BY
SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ACROSS THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
MORNING AS DRYER AIR RAPIDLY RACES INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. EXPECT DRY BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. AD

LONG TERM...RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM
AS MAINLY DRY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PASS THROUGH MONTANA ON MONDAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH...ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER. A SIMILAR DISTURBANCE MAY
RIPPLE THROUGH THE FLOW AROUND MIDWEEK AS WELL...WITH AGAIN
INCREASED SHOWER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH. GUIDANCE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN ITS DEPICTION OF INDICATING A BUILDING
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST BY LATE WEEK... LENDING INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED MODERATION OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
ABOVE NORMAL FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AD

AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WASHINGTON AND
OREGON IS STARTING TO BRING BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...LOOK FOR VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
FOR KSUN...KIDA AND TO AN LESSER EXTENT FOR KPIH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EXPECT VICINITY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
FOR KPIH...KIDA AND KSUN. ALSO...LOOK FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WYATT

FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY FOR ZONE 427 AS WELL AS 413 BELOW 5000 FEET FROM 1 TO 10
PM.  EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THESE
ZONES WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY AROUND 13 TO 20 PERCENT. LOOK FOR
WINDY CONDITIONS IN THOSE ZONES SATURDAY AS WELL BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER... HUMIDITY WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT WETTING RAINS TODAY AND SATURDAY MAINLY
IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES 475...476 AND 422 AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST
THROUGH NORTHERN IDAHO.  ALSO...LOOK FOR 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE
7000 FEET MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ413-427.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 9 AM MDT SUNDAY
FOR IDZ018-032.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 041949
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
149 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...ELONGATED CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLOMBIA SOUTHWARD THROUGH OREGON. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY
WOBBLE EASTWARD THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE RAPIDLY LIFTING OUT OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS IS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND THREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. WHAT THIS MEANS IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY...AND ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER ON
SUNDAY. THIS COLD COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
MEAN GRADUALLY FALLING SNOW LEVELS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND CONSIDERING IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND HAVE MADE THE DECISION TO
HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM
NOON SATURDAY THROUGH 9 AM SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL MOUNTAIN ZONES ABOVE
7000 FT. THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL NEED TO DRESS FOR
THE COLD AND WET CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY SLUSH ON
ROADWAYS AT PASS LEVEL AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. WILL ALSO BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
LESS THAN ONE INCH. A DRY SLOT WILL PUNCH ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN LATE TONIGHT...ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THERE BY
SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ACROSS THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
MORNING AS DRYER AIR RAPIDLY RACES INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. EXPECT DRY BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. AD

.LONG TERM...RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM
AS MAINLY DRY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PASS THROUGH MONTANA ON MONDAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH...ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER. A SIMILAR DISTURBANCE MAY
RIPPLE THROUGH THE FLOW AROUND MIDWEEK AS WELL...WITH AGAIN
INCREASED SHOWER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH. GUIDANCE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN ITS DEPICTION OF INDICATING A BUILDING
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST BY LATE WEEK... LENDING INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED MODERATION OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
ABOVE NORMAL FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AD


&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WASHINGTON AND
OREGON IS STARTING TO BRING BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...LOOK FOR VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
FOR KSUN...KIDA AND TO AN LESSER EXTENT FOR KPIH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EXPECT VICINITY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
FOR KPIH...KIDA AND KSUN. ALSO...LOOK FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WYATT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY FOR ZONE 427 AS WELL AS 413 BELOW 5000 FEET FROM 1 TO 10
PM.  EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THESE
ZONES WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY AROUND 13 TO 20 PERCENT. LOOK FOR
WINDY CONDITIONS IN THOSE ZONES SATURDAY AS WELL BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER... HUMIDITY WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT WETTING RAINS TODAY AND SATURDAY MAINLY
IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES 475...476 AND 422 AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST
THROUGH NORTHERN IDAHO.  ALSO...LOOK FOR 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE
7000 FEET MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WYATT


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ413-427.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 9 AM MDT SUNDAY
FOR IDZ018-032.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 041949
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
149 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...ELONGATED CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLOMBIA SOUTHWARD THROUGH OREGON. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY
WOBBLE EASTWARD THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE RAPIDLY LIFTING OUT OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS IS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND THREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. WHAT THIS MEANS IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY...AND ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER ON
SUNDAY. THIS COLD COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
MEAN GRADUALLY FALLING SNOW LEVELS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND CONSIDERING IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND HAVE MADE THE DECISION TO
HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM
NOON SATURDAY THROUGH 9 AM SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL MOUNTAIN ZONES ABOVE
7000 FT. THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL NEED TO DRESS FOR
THE COLD AND WET CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY SLUSH ON
ROADWAYS AT PASS LEVEL AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. WILL ALSO BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
LESS THAN ONE INCH. A DRY SLOT WILL PUNCH ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN LATE TONIGHT...ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THERE BY
SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ACROSS THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
MORNING AS DRYER AIR RAPIDLY RACES INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. EXPECT DRY BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. AD

.LONG TERM...RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM
AS MAINLY DRY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PASS THROUGH MONTANA ON MONDAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH...ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER. A SIMILAR DISTURBANCE MAY
RIPPLE THROUGH THE FLOW AROUND MIDWEEK AS WELL...WITH AGAIN
INCREASED SHOWER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH. GUIDANCE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN ITS DEPICTION OF INDICATING A BUILDING
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST BY LATE WEEK... LENDING INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED MODERATION OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
ABOVE NORMAL FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AD


&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WASHINGTON AND
OREGON IS STARTING TO BRING BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...LOOK FOR VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
FOR KSUN...KIDA AND TO AN LESSER EXTENT FOR KPIH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EXPECT VICINITY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
FOR KPIH...KIDA AND KSUN. ALSO...LOOK FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WYATT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY FOR ZONE 427 AS WELL AS 413 BELOW 5000 FEET FROM 1 TO 10
PM.  EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THESE
ZONES WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY AROUND 13 TO 20 PERCENT. LOOK FOR
WINDY CONDITIONS IN THOSE ZONES SATURDAY AS WELL BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER... HUMIDITY WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT WETTING RAINS TODAY AND SATURDAY MAINLY
IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES 475...476 AND 422 AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST
THROUGH NORTHERN IDAHO.  ALSO...LOOK FOR 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE
7000 FEET MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WYATT


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ413-427.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 9 AM MDT SUNDAY
FOR IDZ018-032.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 041949
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
149 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...ELONGATED CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLOMBIA SOUTHWARD THROUGH OREGON. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY
WOBBLE EASTWARD THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE RAPIDLY LIFTING OUT OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS IS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR...WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AND TEMPS PROGGED TO BE AROUND THREE
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. WHAT THIS MEANS IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY...AND ONLY SLIGHTLY WARMER ON
SUNDAY. THIS COLD COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
MEAN GRADUALLY FALLING SNOW LEVELS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND CONSIDERING IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND HAVE MADE THE DECISION TO
HOIST A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM
NOON SATURDAY THROUGH 9 AM SUNDAY FOR CENTRAL MOUNTAIN ZONES ABOVE
7000 FT. THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL NEED TO DRESS FOR
THE COLD AND WET CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY SLUSH ON
ROADWAYS AT PASS LEVEL AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. WILL ALSO BE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
LESS THAN ONE INCH. A DRY SLOT WILL PUNCH ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN LATE TONIGHT...ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THERE BY
SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END ACROSS THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
MORNING AS DRYER AIR RAPIDLY RACES INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. EXPECT DRY BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. AD

.LONG TERM...RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM
AS MAINLY DRY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK WAVE
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL PASS THROUGH MONTANA ON MONDAY...WHICH
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH...ALONG WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER. A SIMILAR DISTURBANCE MAY
RIPPLE THROUGH THE FLOW AROUND MIDWEEK AS WELL...WITH AGAIN
INCREASED SHOWER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTH. GUIDANCE IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN ITS DEPICTION OF INDICATING A BUILDING
RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST BY LATE WEEK... LENDING INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED MODERATION OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
ABOVE NORMAL FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. AD


&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER WASHINGTON AND
OREGON IS STARTING TO BRING BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...LOOK FOR VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
FOR KSUN...KIDA AND TO AN LESSER EXTENT FOR KPIH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EXPECT VICINITY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT
FOR KPIH...KIDA AND KSUN. ALSO...LOOK FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS AGAIN ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WYATT


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITY FOR ZONE 427 AS WELL AS 413 BELOW 5000 FEET FROM 1 TO 10
PM.  EXPECT STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THESE
ZONES WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY AROUND 13 TO 20 PERCENT. LOOK FOR
WINDY CONDITIONS IN THOSE ZONES SATURDAY AS WELL BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. HOWEVER... HUMIDITY WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT WETTING RAINS TODAY AND SATURDAY MAINLY
IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES 475...476 AND 422 AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST
THROUGH NORTHERN IDAHO.  ALSO...LOOK FOR 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE
7000 FEET MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. WYATT


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ413-427.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 9 AM MDT SUNDAY
FOR IDZ018-032.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 040855
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
255 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER VANCOUVER
ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND DEEPEN.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER EASTERN OR BY SAT MORN...THEN OVER
N CEN MT BY SUN MORN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THRU SAT
MORN...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT WITH
LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGHLANS THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE.  AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO ID
ON SAT... PRECIP WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST AREAS SAT AFTN AND EVE.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MT...PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AGAIN SAT NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY SUN AFTN.
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER SAT AND SUN. SNOW MAY MAKE AN
APPEARANCE SAT IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A MINOR UPPER WAVE MOVES THRU
NORTHERN ID AND MT ON MON. THIS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG
THE DIVIDE MON AFTN AND NIGHT...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS
DRY. BROAD UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW ON WED. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY...WITH WARMING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AT BYI...PIH AND
IDA WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS AT PIH AND IDA WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS.  BYI SHOULD BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOT WITH GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS.  BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE NEAR
SUN AND HAVE IN VICINITY THERE.  EXPECT SIMILAR SCENARIO SATURDAY
WITH BEST CHANCES IN SUN AREA.   WILL HAVE SIMILAR WIND SCENARIO
SATURDAY AS WELL AT BYI...PIH AND IDA WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT SUSTAINED
WINDS LIKELY AGAIN AT PIH AND IDA.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 427 AND 413
FROM 1 TO 10 PM FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.   EXPECT STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THERE WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
MPH EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  MINIMUM HUMIDITY
WILL BE IN THE 15 PERCENT RANGE TODAY.  EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS IN
THOSE ZONES SATURDAY AS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT HUMIDITY WILL
BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER IN MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS.  EXPECT WETTING
RAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES MAINLY 475...476 AND
422 AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST THROUGH NORTHERN IDAHO.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR IDZ413-427.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 040855
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
255 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW OVER VANCOUVER
ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND DEEPEN.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER EASTERN OR BY SAT MORN...THEN OVER
N CEN MT BY SUN MORN. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA THRU SAT
MORN...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT WITH
LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGHLANS THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE.  AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO ID
ON SAT... PRECIP WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST AREAS SAT AFTN AND EVE.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO MT...PRECIP WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AGAIN SAT NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE FCST AREA BY SUN AFTN.
TEMPS WILL ALSO BE MUCH COOLER SAT AND SUN. SNOW MAY MAKE AN
APPEARANCE SAT IN THE CENTRAL MTNS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A MINOR UPPER WAVE MOVES THRU
NORTHERN ID AND MT ON MON. THIS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD SHOWERS ALONG
THE DIVIDE MON AFTN AND NIGHT...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS
DRY. BROAD UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW ON WED. THIS WILL
KEEP THE AREA DRY...WITH WARMING TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AT BYI...PIH AND
IDA WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS AT PIH AND IDA WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS.  BYI SHOULD BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOT WITH GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS.  BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE NEAR
SUN AND HAVE IN VICINITY THERE.  EXPECT SIMILAR SCENARIO SATURDAY
WITH BEST CHANCES IN SUN AREA.   WILL HAVE SIMILAR WIND SCENARIO
SATURDAY AS WELL AT BYI...PIH AND IDA WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT SUSTAINED
WINDS LIKELY AGAIN AT PIH AND IDA.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ZONES 427 AND 413
FROM 1 TO 10 PM FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY.   EXPECT STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THERE WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35
MPH EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  MINIMUM HUMIDITY
WILL BE IN THE 15 PERCENT RANGE TODAY.  EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS IN
THOSE ZONES SATURDAY AS WELL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BUT HUMIDITY WILL
BE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER IN MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS.  EXPECT WETTING
RAINS TODAY AND FRIDAY IN THE NORTHERN ZONES MAINLY 475...476 AND
422 AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST THROUGH NORTHERN IDAHO.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR IDZ413-427.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 032010
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
210 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COAST...WE ARE
STILL PATIENTLY AWAITING THE ARRIVAL IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO. IN THE
MEANTIME...SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS A MINOR DISTURBANCE IN EASTERN
NEVADA WORKING THIS WAY. NOT MUCH ON RADAR YET BUT HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ROCKLAND...POCATELLO AND
BLACKFOOT AREA THIS EVENING. THIS LITTLE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
NORTH TO ISLAND PARK TOWARDS MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
SHARPLY OVER THE CARIBOU HIGHLANDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS OF
15 TO 25 WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. AS FOR THE LOW DIGGING
DOWN THE COAST...WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AROUND CHALLIS AND STANLEY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF THIS SYSTEM CROSSING SOUTHEAST IDAHO
SATURDAY SO WE ARE STANDING FIRM ON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BY SUNDAY...THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST
LEAVING A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THAT IS MOSTLY DRY FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN
IDAHO MONDAY THAT MAY LEAVE SPOTTY SHOWERS NEAR THE MONTANA LINE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONDITIONS MAY BE DRY ENOUGH FOR MORNING LOWS TO
APPROACH FREEZING AND THREATEN THOSE SENSITIVE GARDEN PLANTS. RS

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN INTO WASHINGTON
CURRENTLY WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...LOOK FOR VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS FOR KIDA
AND TO AN LESSER EXTENT FOR KPIH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. EXPECT VICINITY SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR KPIH...KIDA AND
KSUN THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT EVEN STRONGER WINDS AND BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. WYATT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN INTO
WASHINGTON CURRENTLY WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES TOMORROW LOOK FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 413 AND 427. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE TWO ZONES. AS THIS LOW MOVES OVER OUR
AREA THIS WEEKEND...LOOK FOR LITTLE PRECIPITATION OVER OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT WETTING RAINS OVER NORTHERN AREAS...
MAINLY IN ZONES 422...475 AND 476 FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WYATT


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR IDZ413-427.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 032010
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
210 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COAST...WE ARE
STILL PATIENTLY AWAITING THE ARRIVAL IN SOUTHEAST IDAHO. IN THE
MEANTIME...SATELLITE ALSO SHOWS A MINOR DISTURBANCE IN EASTERN
NEVADA WORKING THIS WAY. NOT MUCH ON RADAR YET BUT HAVE INCLUDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ROCKLAND...POCATELLO AND
BLACKFOOT AREA THIS EVENING. THIS LITTLE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE
NORTH TO ISLAND PARK TOWARDS MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
SHARPLY OVER THE CARIBOU HIGHLANDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SOUTH WINDS OF
15 TO 25 WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. AS FOR THE LOW DIGGING
DOWN THE COAST...WE HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AROUND CHALLIS AND STANLEY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF THIS SYSTEM CROSSING SOUTHEAST IDAHO
SATURDAY SO WE ARE STANDING FIRM ON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BY SUNDAY...THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST
LEAVING A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THAT IS MOSTLY DRY FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN
IDAHO MONDAY THAT MAY LEAVE SPOTTY SHOWERS NEAR THE MONTANA LINE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...CONDITIONS MAY BE DRY ENOUGH FOR MORNING LOWS TO
APPROACH FREEZING AND THREATEN THOSE SENSITIVE GARDEN PLANTS. RS

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN INTO WASHINGTON
CURRENTLY WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY...LOOK FOR VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS FOR KIDA
AND TO AN LESSER EXTENT FOR KPIH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. EXPECT VICINITY SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR KPIH...KIDA AND
KSUN THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECT EVEN STRONGER WINDS AND BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY. WYATT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SYSTEM DROPPING DOWN INTO
WASHINGTON CURRENTLY WILL BRING BREEZY WINDS AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES TOMORROW LOOK FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OVER FIRE WEATHER ZONES 413 AND 427. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THESE TWO ZONES. AS THIS LOW MOVES OVER OUR
AREA THIS WEEKEND...LOOK FOR LITTLE PRECIPITATION OVER OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT WETTING RAINS OVER NORTHERN AREAS...
MAINLY IN ZONES 422...475 AND 476 FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WYATT


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR IDZ413-427.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 030910
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
310 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DOMINANT FEATURE WILL BE
THE DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM IS
STRENGTHENING THE SW FLOW ALOFT...PULLING IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO SE ID. THIS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ISOLD TSTMS IN THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. PRECIP WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL MTNS TODAY...AND INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS THIS EVE.
BY FRI EVE...THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES INTO SW OR. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE MTNS THRU SAT
MORN. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO ID ON SATURDAY...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL IMPACT MOST AREAS BY AFTN AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVE. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON SAT...AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL MTNS MAY SEE SOME SNOW. THE UPPER LOW
FILLS AND MOVES INTO MT BY SUN MORN...WITH THE PRECIP SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. PRECIP IS OUT OF THE AREA SUN
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DROP
ANOTHER TROF INTO THE PAC NW ON MON. NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLD SHOWERS NEAR THE DIVIDE MON AFTN
AND NIGHT. FROM TUE THRU THU...NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE
FCST AREA DRY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK UP DURING THE WEEK.
HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS PUSHING EAST IF PIH AND IDA AT 3 AM AND
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.  EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM AGAIN MAINLY AT BYI...PIH AND
IDA.  FOR NOW HAVE JUST VICINITY IN TAFS BUT ALL COULD SEE
ACTIVITY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  EXPECT 10 TO 15 KNOT
SUSTAINED WINDS AT BYI...PIH AND BYI WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO
30 KNOT RANGE.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT HIGHER HUMIDITY TODAY WITH WINDS NOT AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY.  HUMIDITY SHOULD BE ABOVE 15 PERCENT
WIDESPREAD TODAY.  WINDS GUSTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE 20 TO 30
MPH RANGE.   SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND NOT LOOKING AS WET RIGHT NOW
BUT STILL EXPECT WETTING RAINS MAINLY IN ZONES 422...475 AND 476
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 030910
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
310 AM MDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DOMINANT FEATURE WILL BE
THE DEEP UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS SYSTEM IS
STRENGTHENING THE SW FLOW ALOFT...PULLING IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO SE ID. THIS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ISOLD TSTMS IN THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS THIS MORNING. PRECIP WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL MTNS TODAY...AND INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS THIS EVE.
BY FRI EVE...THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES INTO SW OR. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE MTNS THRU SAT
MORN. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO ID ON SATURDAY...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WILL IMPACT MOST AREAS BY AFTN AND CONTINUING
INTO THE EVE. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON SAT...AND THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL MTNS MAY SEE SOME SNOW. THE UPPER LOW
FILLS AND MOVES INTO MT BY SUN MORN...WITH THE PRECIP SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. PRECIP IS OUT OF THE AREA SUN
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DROP
ANOTHER TROF INTO THE PAC NW ON MON. NOT MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLD SHOWERS NEAR THE DIVIDE MON AFTN
AND NIGHT. FROM TUE THRU THU...NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE
FCST AREA DRY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK UP DURING THE WEEK.
HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS PUSHING EAST IF PIH AND IDA AT 3 AM AND
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY.  EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM AGAIN MAINLY AT BYI...PIH AND
IDA.  FOR NOW HAVE JUST VICINITY IN TAFS BUT ALL COULD SEE
ACTIVITY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  EXPECT 10 TO 15 KNOT
SUSTAINED WINDS AT BYI...PIH AND BYI WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO
30 KNOT RANGE.
GK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT HIGHER HUMIDITY TODAY WITH WINDS NOT AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY.  HUMIDITY SHOULD BE ABOVE 15 PERCENT
WIDESPREAD TODAY.  WINDS GUSTS EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE 20 TO 30
MPH RANGE.   SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND NOT LOOKING AS WET RIGHT NOW
BUT STILL EXPECT WETTING RAINS MAINLY IN ZONES 422...475 AND 476
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 022033
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
233 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...STRONG LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SLIPPING INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THIS HAS
BEEN DELAYED A BIT AND THE 18Z NAM12 AND RAP MODEL ALSO FAVOR
TIMING CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHEAST IDAHO REMAINS DRY TONIGHT. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
STILL LOOKING FOR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO BRUSH CUSTER
COUNTY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AS IT MOVES SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A FEW
TRICKLES OF MOISTURE SLIPPING INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS FROM THE
SOUTH AS WELL. SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND SNAKE PLAIN.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE LOW MOVING EAST INTO IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY THE PATTERN QUICKLY REVERTS BACK TO A
MILD WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW THAT IS LARGE DRY EXCEPT FOR MAY NEAR
MONIDA PASS ON THE MONTANA BORDER. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH A MINOR DISTURBANCE THAT CROSSES NORTH IDAHO AND
MONTANA ON MONDAY AND NIPPING THIS AREA WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS...THEN
IT IS BACK TO A DRY PATTERN THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. RS


&&

.AVIATION...MODELS PROJECT A DISTURBANCE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF UTAH
THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE SHOWERS FOR KPIH AND KIDA. AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND WILL
LIKELY EXIT INTO MT/WY BEFORE SUNRISE. HINSBERGER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH 9 PM THIS
EVENING DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS. THIS FLOW PARTICULARLY FAVORS DRY/WARM DOWNSLOPE
WINDS IN THE VALLEYS UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL STALL OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITY IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RECOVER AND WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ENHANCED AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LOW...WHICH MAY
BRING WETTING RAINS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE LOW WILL ALSO
BRING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE.  HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ410-475-476.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 022033
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
233 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...STRONG LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. SOME SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SLIPPING INTO
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THIS HAS
BEEN DELAYED A BIT AND THE 18Z NAM12 AND RAP MODEL ALSO FAVOR
TIMING CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHEAST IDAHO REMAINS DRY TONIGHT. THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
STILL LOOKING FOR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LOW TO BRUSH CUSTER
COUNTY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AS IT MOVES SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A FEW
TRICKLES OF MOISTURE SLIPPING INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS FROM THE
SOUTH AS WELL. SOUTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND SNAKE PLAIN.

MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE LOW MOVING EAST INTO IDAHO FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY THE PATTERN QUICKLY REVERTS BACK TO A
MILD WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW THAT IS LARGE DRY EXCEPT FOR MAY NEAR
MONIDA PASS ON THE MONTANA BORDER. THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH A MINOR DISTURBANCE THAT CROSSES NORTH IDAHO AND
MONTANA ON MONDAY AND NIPPING THIS AREA WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS...THEN
IT IS BACK TO A DRY PATTERN THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. RS


&&

.AVIATION...MODELS PROJECT A DISTURBANCE TO MOVE NORTH OUT OF UTAH
THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE SHOWERS FOR KPIH AND KIDA. AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND WILL
LIKELY EXIT INTO MT/WY BEFORE SUNRISE. HINSBERGER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH 9 PM THIS
EVENING DUE TO GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY. A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL
IDAHO MOUNTAINS. THIS FLOW PARTICULARLY FAVORS DRY/WARM DOWNSLOPE
WINDS IN THE VALLEYS UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL STALL OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND PASS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HUMIDITY IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO RECOVER AND WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES SATURDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ENHANCED AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LOW...WHICH MAY
BRING WETTING RAINS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE LOW WILL ALSO
BRING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AIRMASS BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE.  HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ410-475-476.

&&

$$





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