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000
FXUS65 KPIH 021939 AAC
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
139 PM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LARGE UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN BC/AB WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY INTO WED. MODELS PUSH
THE UPPER RIDGE OFF TO THE EAST BY WED AS A DEEP UPPER TROF MOVES
ONTO THE W COAST. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL MTNS
WED AFTN/EVE AS PAC MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE INCREASES IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FCST
AREA ON THU...WITH ISOLATED TSTMS SPREADING TO THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS THU AFTN. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT...BUT TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM
THRU THE PERIOD. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN IDAHO. BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 9000 FEET AND SHOULDNT POSE MUCH OF A
PROBLEM TO TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 020833
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
233 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON
THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE, WE ARE STILL LOOKING
FOR CHILLY OVERNIGHTS AND WARMER AFTERNOONS. WE WILL KEEP THE
FROST ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY FOR MORE RURAL
LOCATIONS. TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS SIMILAR EXCEPT THE COOLER
LOWS MAY NOT EXTEND INTO THE MAGIC VALLEY. WE WILL LET THE CURRENT
ONE EXPIRE AND HAVE THE DAY SHIFT ISSUE ANOTHER HEADLINE IF TRENDS
CONTINUE. THE NAM KEEPS TRYING TO FIRE OFF A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS ON THE WYOMING SIDE OF THE BORDER AND ALSO TO THE NORTHWEST
OF STANLEY AND CHALLIS. IN ORDER TO KEEP SOME CONTINUITY WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES WE DID INCLUDE AROUND A 10 PERCENT CHANCE IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BUT THAT IS LIKELY A STRETCH.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST AND
THE HUGE LOW FORECAST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE OMEGA BLOCK
SHIFTS TOWARD THE COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WHICH WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS. BY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
DON`T EXPECT A LOT OF RAIN INITIALLY DUE TO DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE. KEYES

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AMPLIFIED PACIFIC
TROUGH PUSHES INLAND THROUGH FRIDAY AND CUTS OFF DEEP UPPER LOW
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOIST FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL MAINTAIN
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER EAST IDAHO THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER LOW SHOULD START EJECTING EAST WITH
ANOTHER BLOCKING HIGH TRYING TO SET UP OVER BC CANADA PER GFS AND
ENSEMBLES. ECMWF COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE WITH GFS INSTEAD DROPPING
ANOTHER TROUGH THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. TRENDED SLIGHTLY
DRIER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR NOW. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR IDZ017-020-021.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 020204
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
805 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING
TO ALLOW THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR AMERICAN FALLS RESERVOIR TO
EXPIRE WITH THE SETTING SUN. THE LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY
TIGHT EASTERLY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT
WHICH WILL HELP TO DRY THINGS OUT AND ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BUT THERE
MAY YET BE ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND WARMER.
WE WILL SEE HOW IT PLAYS OUT IN THE MORNING. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
BELOW. HUSTON

AN UPPER HIGH OVER BC/AB WILL SAG SOUTH INTO WESTERN MT ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST
INTO WED. THE RESULT WILL BE WARMER TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. BRISK
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DRY AIR... WILL RESULT IN COLD EARLY MORN TEMPS. FROST IS A
POSSIBILITY EARLY MON MORN...MAINLY IN RURAL AREAS OF THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY.

ON WED...A DEEP UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL DISPLACE
THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME PAC MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL MTNS...RESULTING IN ISOLATED TSTMS WED AFTN. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
UPPER LOW PUSHES ONTO CALIFORNIA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
SETTING UP DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO.   EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW WORKS EAST. GK
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. GK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR IDZ017-020-021.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 011950
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
150 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER HIGH OVER BC/AB
WILL SAG SOUTH INTO WESTERN MT ON MONDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO A DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST INTO WED. THE RESULT
WILL BE WARMER TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. BRISK EASTERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR...
WILL RESULT IN COLD EARLY MORN TEMPS. FROST IS A POSSIBILITY EARLY
MON MORN...MAINLY IN RURAL AREAS OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY.

ON WED...A DEEP UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL
DISPLACE THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME PAC MOISTURE TO
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS...RESULTING IN ISOLATED TSTMS WED AFTN.
HEDGES

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
UPPER LOW PUSHES ONTO CALIFORNIA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
SETTING UP DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO.   EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW WORKS EAST.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR IDZ017-020-021.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ021.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 011950
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
150 PM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER HIGH OVER BC/AB
WILL SAG SOUTH INTO WESTERN MT ON MONDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY
LEAD TO A DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST INTO WED. THE RESULT
WILL BE WARMER TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. BRISK EASTERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT...AND COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR...
WILL RESULT IN COLD EARLY MORN TEMPS. FROST IS A POSSIBILITY EARLY
MON MORN...MAINLY IN RURAL AREAS OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY.

ON WED...A DEEP UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL
DISPLACE THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME PAC MOISTURE TO
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS...RESULTING IN ISOLATED TSTMS WED AFTN.
HEDGES

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
UPPER LOW PUSHES ONTO CALIFORNIA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
SETTING UP DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST IDAHO.   EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE ENTIRE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW WORKS EAST.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR IDZ017-020-021.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ021.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 010831
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
231 AM MDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
PULL MOISTURE FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BACK INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO. WE ARE SEEING MAINLY CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS
THAT WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
LESS CLOUD COVER BY AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS. WE ARE LOOKING AT A
FEW SHOWERS AND CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS FROM STANLEY
TO SUN VALLEY. WITH THE MAIN LOW STILL DIGGING ACROSS ARIZONA AND
DEEPENING...WE WILL SEE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE AND
GUSTY AT TIMES. THEY WILL BE STRONGEST CLOSER TO THE UTAH BORDER
WHERE 20-30MPH SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE FORECAST ESPECIALLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BRIEFLY HIT THE MARK. FOR NOW
THOUGH...WE WILL WILL NOT ISSUE ANYTHING SINCE IT WOULD BE PRETTY
QUICK.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A REX BLOCK AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE STATE. THE NAM SEEMED TO BE THE LONE
RANGER WITH A COMPACT LOW SWINGING BACK ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AND
KICKING OFF SHOWERS ALONG THE BORDER. WE STILL MIGHT A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS AROUND STANLEY AND SUN VALLEY AND ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER
BUT WHAT CHANCE IS THERE LOOKS LOWER AND LOWER. WITH DRIER AIR IN
PLACE...THAT MEANS COOLER LOWS AND WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE
GROWING SEASON OFFICIALLY STARTS TODAY AND WE WILL SEE MANY AREAS
WITH FROST OR FREEZE CONDITIONS THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. SO IT
WOULD BE WISE TO KEEP COVERING OR BRINGING IN PLANTS AND SUCH THAT
MIGHT BE IN DANGER. KEYES

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF THE EXTENDED RANGE AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AHEAD OF DEEPLY AMPLIFIED PACIFIC TROUGH. INCREASING MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY. UPPER LOW CUTS OFF IN
BASE OF TROUGH AND SETS UP OVER DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF ALL DIFFERING ON POSITION OF LOW CENTER.
REGARDLESS...SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND LOW MAINTAINS MOISTURE STREAMING
INTO EAST IDAHO THROUGH SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FOR SUNDAY
AS MODELS SHOW NO HINT OF AGREEMENT THUS KEPT PERSISTENT WET
FORECAST IN PLACE. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...EASTERLY FLOW AROUND SOUTHERN LOW STILL STREAMS ACROSS
EAST IDAHO EARLY THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWING MOST SHOWERS HAVE
DISSIPATED. SOME HINT THAT A STRAY SHOWER COULD AFFECT KSUN THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING TREND TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THUS EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS MOST AREAS. RECENT
RAINFALL AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS COULD MEAN A FEW POCKETS OF
FOG/STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
AND NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN IMPACT AT ANY TERMINAL SITES. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM MDT MONDAY FOR IDZ017-020-021.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 010200
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
800 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING
TO ALLOW THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE WITH THE SETTING SUN THIS
EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE A STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT WE MAY NEED TO
FOLLOW UP WITH ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
RESERVOIR FOR SUNDAY. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE INCOMING MODEL DATA A
LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING TO SEE IF WE NEED TO PUSH THAT OUT THE
DOOR. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

THE LARGE UPPER LOW DOMINATING THE WEST IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THIS AFTN. SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SAG
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY...TAKING THE THREAT OF PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS SUN AFTN
...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY. AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING TO THE
EAST ON TUE. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THRU
TUE. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TREND IS FOR UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECT MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER LOW MOVES ON SHORE FRIDAY
AND EXPECT MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  SHOULD SEE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SOME COOLING AND MORE CLOUD COVER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. GK
&&

.AVIATION...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM EAST AND
HAVE SHOWERS AND VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOULD STAY VFR BUT IN A SHOWER COULD OCCASIONALLY DROP TO MVFR.
EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE. GK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 010200
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
800 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A QUICK UPDATE THIS EVENING
TO ALLOW THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE WITH THE SETTING SUN THIS
EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE A STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT WE MAY NEED TO
FOLLOW UP WITH ANOTHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
RESERVOIR FOR SUNDAY. WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE INCOMING MODEL DATA A
LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING TO SEE IF WE NEED TO PUSH THAT OUT THE
DOOR. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

THE LARGE UPPER LOW DOMINATING THE WEST IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THIS AFTN. SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SAG
SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY...TAKING THE THREAT OF PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS SUN AFTN
...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY. AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING TO THE
EAST ON TUE. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THRU
TUE. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TREND IS FOR UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECT MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER LOW MOVES ON SHORE FRIDAY
AND EXPECT MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  SHOULD SEE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SOME COOLING AND MORE CLOUD COVER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. GK
&&

.AVIATION...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM EAST AND
HAVE SHOWERS AND VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOULD STAY VFR BUT IN A SHOWER COULD OCCASIONALLY DROP TO MVFR.
EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE. GK
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 301927
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
127 PM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LARGE UPPER LOW
DOMINATING THE WEST IS RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS THIS AFTN. SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS
THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTHWARD
ON SUNDAY...TAKING THE THREAT OF PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS SUN AFTN
...WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY. AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY...EVENTUALLY MOVING TO THE
EAST ON TUE. DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THRU
TUE. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
TREND IS FOR UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE EAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETTING UP BY WEDNESDAY.  WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY EXPECT MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER LOW MOVES ON SHORE FRIDAY
AND EXPECT MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  SHOULD SEE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH SOME COOLING AND MORE CLOUD COVER FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM EAST AND
HAVE SHOWERS AND VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOULD STAY VFR BUT IN A SHOWER COULD OCCASIONALLY DROP TO MVFR.
EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE.
GK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR IDZ021.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 300836
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
236 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE ARE STILL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE STORMS THIS MORNING. ONE IS STILL OVER
WESTERN MONTANA AND WEAKENING. THE SECOND IS DEVELOPING AND
DIGGING ACROSS NEVADA. THE THIRD ONE IS WRAPPING MOISTURE AROUND
THE NORTHERN SIDE AND PUSHING TOWARD SOUTHEAST IDAHO. THE FIRST
AND THIRD ONE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A CONVERGENCE EVENT WILL
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
THE STORM DIGGING ACROSS NEVADA WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN IDAHO.
THE WINDS WILL STAY MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY
AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR AMERICAN
FALLS RESERVOIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THE WINDS MIGHT BE A TICK LOWER
BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROUGH WATERS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
DAM. LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS REBOUND TO AROUND 8000FT THIS
AFTERNOON.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES
EASTERLY SUNDAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AS WE SEE A HIGH OVER
LOW PRESSURE BLOCK SETTING UP ACROSS THE WEST. THE MODELS DIFFER A
BIT IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE THERE FOR CLOUDS AND ANY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. RIGHT NOW...ANY SHOWERS SUNDAY MAY ONLY BE IN
THE SAWTOOTHS. FOR TODAY...WE INCLUDED ISOLATED FOR ALL OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN CASE THE MODELS SWITCH GEARS AGAIN. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE SAWTOOTHS AND ALSO A FEW
RIDGES IN THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. IT IS POSSIBLE DUE TO BREEZY
WINDS TOMORROW THAT ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED BUT WE`LL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW. WITH DRIER CONDITIONS...WE WILL SEE AFTERNOON
WARMING UP WITH A FEW 70S CREEPING INTO THE PICTURE MONDAY. THE
OTHER ISSUE WITH THAT IS COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. SINCE WE
ARE HEADING INTO THE GROWING SEASON...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT A
FROST OR LIGHT FREEZE IN SOME AREAS MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON IF WINDS LET UP ENOUGH. KEYES

.LONG TERM....MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
ON GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AMPLIFIED UPPER BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS MAINTAINING WEAK POCKETS OF MOISTURE BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW UNDER DISORGANIZED UPPER FLOW TO PAINT PRECIP IN
ANY ONE PLACE. DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND THURSDAY WITH CUT
OFF LOW IN BASE OF TROUGH. UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY USHERING IN
BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THUS PUSHED PRECIP CHANCES HIGHER
THURSDAY. MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
SHIFTS INLAND INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES BUT BOTH KEEP PRECIP SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION SO MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO SATURDAY. GUIDANCE
KEEPS TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TODAY. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS WITHIN CONVECTION. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS
18Z-02Z. SLOW DISSIPATION OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. SURFACE
GRADIENT THROUGH SNAKE PLAIN REMAINS NORTHEAST TODAY AND COULD BE
STRONGEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT KPIH/KIDA. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR IDZ021.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 300836
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
236 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. WE ARE STILL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE STORMS THIS MORNING. ONE IS STILL OVER
WESTERN MONTANA AND WEAKENING. THE SECOND IS DEVELOPING AND
DIGGING ACROSS NEVADA. THE THIRD ONE IS WRAPPING MOISTURE AROUND
THE NORTHERN SIDE AND PUSHING TOWARD SOUTHEAST IDAHO. THE FIRST
AND THIRD ONE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A CONVERGENCE EVENT WILL
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
THE STORM DIGGING ACROSS NEVADA WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN IDAHO.
THE WINDS WILL STAY MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY
AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR AMERICAN
FALLS RESERVOIR REMAINS IN PLACE. THE WINDS MIGHT BE A TICK LOWER
BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ROUGH WATERS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
DAM. LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SNOW LEVELS REBOUND TO AROUND 8000FT THIS
AFTERNOON.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE FLOW BECOMES
EASTERLY SUNDAY AND SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AS WE SEE A HIGH OVER
LOW PRESSURE BLOCK SETTING UP ACROSS THE WEST. THE MODELS DIFFER A
BIT IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE THERE FOR CLOUDS AND ANY
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS. RIGHT NOW...ANY SHOWERS SUNDAY MAY ONLY BE IN
THE SAWTOOTHS. FOR TODAY...WE INCLUDED ISOLATED FOR ALL OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS IN CASE THE MODELS SWITCH GEARS AGAIN. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE SAWTOOTHS AND ALSO A FEW
RIDGES IN THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS. IT IS POSSIBLE DUE TO BREEZY
WINDS TOMORROW THAT ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED BUT WE`LL
HOLD OFF FOR NOW. WITH DRIER CONDITIONS...WE WILL SEE AFTERNOON
WARMING UP WITH A FEW 70S CREEPING INTO THE PICTURE MONDAY. THE
OTHER ISSUE WITH THAT IS COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. SINCE WE
ARE HEADING INTO THE GROWING SEASON...WE MIGHT BE LOOKING AT A
FROST OR LIGHT FREEZE IN SOME AREAS MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON IF WINDS LET UP ENOUGH. KEYES

.LONG TERM....MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
ON GENERAL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AMPLIFIED UPPER BLOCKING
RIDGE OVER NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS MAINTAINING WEAK POCKETS OF MOISTURE BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW UNDER DISORGANIZED UPPER FLOW TO PAINT PRECIP IN
ANY ONE PLACE. DEEP PACIFIC TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND THURSDAY WITH CUT
OFF LOW IN BASE OF TROUGH. UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY USHERING IN
BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THUS PUSHED PRECIP CHANCES HIGHER
THURSDAY. MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
SHIFTS INLAND INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES BUT BOTH KEEP PRECIP SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION SO MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO SATURDAY. GUIDANCE
KEEPS TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TODAY. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR EXCEPT OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS WITHIN CONVECTION. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OCCURS
18Z-02Z. SLOW DISSIPATION OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z. SURFACE
GRADIENT THROUGH SNAKE PLAIN REMAINS NORTHEAST TODAY AND COULD BE
STRONGEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT KPIH/KIDA. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR IDZ021.

&&

$$





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