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000
FXUS65 KPIH 272118
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
218 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEST FLATTENS INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW...PAC MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO
STREAM INTO ID. AS THE MOISTURE FLOW INCREASES...PRECIP WILL
BECOME MORE WEDESPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS ON FRI DUE TO UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT. PRECIP WILL ALSO SPREAD TO THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS
ON FRI...BUT MOST WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. FRI
NIGHT... A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OUT OF
BC. THIS WILL CAUSE THE POLAR FRONT TO SAG SOUTHEARN INTO ID. THIS
FEATURE WILL ENHANCE PRECIP AND SPREAD IT OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA BY SAT MORN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL SEE RAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES SAT NIGHT. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL CLEAR OUT MUCH OF THE PRECIP FROM N TO S LATE SAT
NIGHT. BY SUN...MOST PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED IN
THE CENTRAL MTNS ABV 7000 FT...WITH LESSER ACCUMULATIONS BELOW.
BELOW 5000 FT SHOULD SEE MOSTLY RAIN. THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS SHOULD
SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES...AND THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS 2 TO 4 INCHES. WINDY
CONDITIONS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS MAY RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW IN THE CENTRAL MTNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD THRU SATURDAY...
FALLING ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY. FROM HERE...THE MODELS HAVE A DIFFERENT TIMING AND
INTENSITY ON THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS AMPLE MOISTURE
WITH GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS
DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THURSDAY. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE IDZ018-031.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 272118
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
218 PM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WEST FLATTENS INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW...PAC MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO
STREAM INTO ID. AS THE MOISTURE FLOW INCREASES...PRECIP WILL
BECOME MORE WEDESPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS ON FRI DUE TO UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT. PRECIP WILL ALSO SPREAD TO THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS
ON FRI...BUT MOST WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. FRI
NIGHT... A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL ROTATE SOUTHWARD OUT OF
BC. THIS WILL CAUSE THE POLAR FRONT TO SAG SOUTHEARN INTO ID. THIS
FEATURE WILL ENHANCE PRECIP AND SPREAD IT OVER THE REST OF THE
FCST AREA BY SAT MORN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY HIGH SNOW LEVELS. VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL SEE RAIN UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES SAT NIGHT. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL CLEAR OUT MUCH OF THE PRECIP FROM N TO S LATE SAT
NIGHT. BY SUN...MOST PRECIP WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES EXPECTED IN
THE CENTRAL MTNS ABV 7000 FT...WITH LESSER ACCUMULATIONS BELOW.
BELOW 5000 FT SHOULD SEE MOSTLY RAIN. THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS SHOULD
SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES...AND THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS 2 TO 4 INCHES. WINDY
CONDITIONS AT HIGH ELEVATIONS MAY RESULT IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW IN THE CENTRAL MTNS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD THRU SATURDAY...
FALLING ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE
MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM OUR SOUTH ON MONDAY AND EARLY
TUESDAY. FROM HERE...THE MODELS HAVE A DIFFERENT TIMING AND
INTENSITY ON THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS AMPLE MOISTURE
WITH GOOD PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
WITH RELATIVELY DRIER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS
DRY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON
THURSDAY. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY
ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE IDZ018-031.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 271022
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
322 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. SHOULD HAVE
MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS AGAIN TODAY WITH THE ONLY THREAT
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE THREAT FOR MAINLY
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS IT SPREADS INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. SNOW LEVELS
START OUT ABOVE 6500 FEET TODAY AND DROP TO AROUND 5500 FEET BY
SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING TO VALLEY FLOORS SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH IDAHO. SOME OF THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7 THOUSAND FEET SHOULD GET THE HEAVIEST
SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM THE NEXT THREE DAYS BUT THERE ARE A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTIES IN DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS. IT APPEARS THE MOST
DIFFICULT DRIVING PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.
GK

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE 00Z GFS AND PREVIOUS 12Z
ECMWF WERE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF
RESUMED THE POOR MODEL TO MODEL CONTINUITY OBSERVED LAST NIGHT. THUS
HAVE TOSSED THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW AND NUDGED THE FORECAST
TOWARD THE GFS WHICH WAS SHOWING THE NEXT PAC LOW ADVANCING TOWARD
THE NRN CALIFORNIA COAST SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. A MODEST INFLUX OF
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA AS THE LOW ADVANCES
CLOSER TO THE COAST. ON TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY THE LOW FINALLY
SWINGS INLAND WITH A GOOD SHOT OF ATTENDING PRECIPITATION SPREADING
THROUGHOUT SE IDAHO WHICH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...MID AND UPPER LEVEL VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS A MOIST PACIFIC FLOW STREAMS INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING TOWARD THE NW COAST. HUSTON
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 262052
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
152 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN US TODAY WILL FLATTEN TO ZONAL FLOW BY THU NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME PAC MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO ID...SETTING OFF A FEW
SHOW SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MTNS ON THU. A MAJOR UPPER WAVE OVER
BC WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE PAC NW BY SAT MORN. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE POLAR FRONT TO SLOWWLY SAG SOUTHWARD...FORCING PRECIP TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FRI THRU SAT. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE IN
THE CENTRAL MTNS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS ON FRI...BUT OVER THE
ENTIRE FCST AREA BY SAT. LOOKS LIKE A SUBSTANTIAL FLOW OF PAC
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WARM TEMPS WILL KEEP SNOW CONFINED TO
THE MTNS WHERE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
CENTRAL MTNS/UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FRI AND SAT. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS... INCLUDING THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN SHOULD SEE RAIN FRI
NIGHT AND SAT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD THU THRU SAT. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED NIGHT. WINTER STORM WRAPS UP
DURING THIS TIME. MAJOR CHANGE IS THE NORTHERLY WIND THAT BRINGS IN
POLAR AIR AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. BOTH
GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE THE SAME SCENARIO...WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT
THE ECMWF BRINGS IN MUCH COLDER AIR AND A DRIER SOLUTION FOR THE
PART OF THE FORECAST AFTER SUN NIGHT. THIS IS BECAUSE OF A SPLIT
THAT DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC THAT
MERGES OVER OR NEAR IDAHO. THE GFS KEEPS SOUTHERN IDAHO ON THE WARM
SIDE WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST PUMPING UP WARM
MOIST AIR FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURS THAN
SUN. THE ECMWF KEEPS EASTERN IDAHO ON THE COLD SIDE...WHICH HAS LESS
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND THE COLDER AIR. WHICH SOLUTION IS CORRECT IS
THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THIS PERIOD. LATELY THE GFS HAS BEEN
PERFORMING BETTER...BUT BOTH FRANKLY HAVE BEEN SCORING LOW IN THE
VERIFICATION DEPARTMENT WHEN IT COMES TO TEMPERATURES. HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE ALONE AND WAIT FOR SOME SORT OF CONSENSUS TO DEVELOP.
MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER EASTERN IDAHO ARE FINALLY
RELAXING A LITTLE BIT AND WINDS SHOULD NOT GUST AS STRONG. DRY AIR
BEHIND LAST NIGHTS FRONT WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND THE ELEVATED WIND
SHOULD PREVENT ANY MORE FOG OR STRATUS. CIG DEVELOPS DURING THU
MORNING...LOWERS THU NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED UNTIL
LATE FRI NIGHT. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 260954
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
254 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE PUSHING EAST TODAY AND EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION LEFT OVER IN THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH ELEVATED SNOW LEVELS ABOVE
7 THOUSAND FEET. THE CHANCES FOR MAINLY MOUNTAINS SHOWERS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE RIVER HIGHLANDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY IN THE 5500 TO 6500 FOOT
RANGE. COULD SEE SOME MOUNTAIN TRAVEL PROBLEMS AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE CHANCES FOR HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW INCREASING.
GK

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE
THAT A MOIST UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR EAST THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH WRN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. SE IDAHO WILL LIKELY SEE MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY
RAIN BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HAMPERING TRAVEL OVER LOCAL MOUNTAIN
PASSES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY GALENA SUMMIT AND TETON AND
PINE CREEK PASS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A BREAK IN
THE WEATHER AS THE CANADIAN TROUGH AND ATTENDING MOISTURE SWEEP EAST
OF THE AREA. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS SHOWING A SECOND LOW
APPROACHING THE NRN CALIFORNIA COAST (FURTHER EAST/MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE ECMWF) RESULTING IN A MOIST SW FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS SRN
IDAHO. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND
WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF INCOMING WAVES OR EVEN THE GROSS
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. BEST TO LEAVE THE FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW
UNTIL THE MODELS SHOW SOME CONSOLIDATION. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE A STRONG/MOIST NW FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUED DOWNSTREAM OVER SE IDAHO. THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE
GRADUALLY EDGING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND
LIGHTER WINDS RESULTING. HUSTON
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 260954
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
254 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE PUSHING EAST TODAY AND EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION LEFT OVER IN THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH ELEVATED SNOW LEVELS ABOVE
7 THOUSAND FEET. THE CHANCES FOR MAINLY MOUNTAINS SHOWERS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE RIVER HIGHLANDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY IN THE 5500 TO 6500 FOOT
RANGE. COULD SEE SOME MOUNTAIN TRAVEL PROBLEMS AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE CHANCES FOR HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW INCREASING.
GK

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE
THAT A MOIST UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR EAST THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH WRN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. SE IDAHO WILL LIKELY SEE MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY
RAIN BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HAMPERING TRAVEL OVER LOCAL MOUNTAIN
PASSES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY GALENA SUMMIT AND TETON AND
PINE CREEK PASS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A BREAK IN
THE WEATHER AS THE CANADIAN TROUGH AND ATTENDING MOISTURE SWEEP EAST
OF THE AREA. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS SHOWING A SECOND LOW
APPROACHING THE NRN CALIFORNIA COAST (FURTHER EAST/MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE ECMWF) RESULTING IN A MOIST SW FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS SRN
IDAHO. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND
WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF INCOMING WAVES OR EVEN THE GROSS
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. BEST TO LEAVE THE FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW
UNTIL THE MODELS SHOW SOME CONSOLIDATION. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE A STRONG/MOIST NW FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUED DOWNSTREAM OVER SE IDAHO. THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE
GRADUALLY EDGING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND
LIGHTER WINDS RESULTING. HUSTON
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 260954
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
254 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE PUSHING EAST TODAY AND EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION LEFT OVER IN THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH ELEVATED SNOW LEVELS ABOVE
7 THOUSAND FEET. THE CHANCES FOR MAINLY MOUNTAINS SHOWERS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE RIVER HIGHLANDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY IN THE 5500 TO 6500 FOOT
RANGE. COULD SEE SOME MOUNTAIN TRAVEL PROBLEMS AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE CHANCES FOR HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW INCREASING.
GK

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE
THAT A MOIST UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR EAST THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH WRN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. SE IDAHO WILL LIKELY SEE MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY
RAIN BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HAMPERING TRAVEL OVER LOCAL MOUNTAIN
PASSES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY GALENA SUMMIT AND TETON AND
PINE CREEK PASS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A BREAK IN
THE WEATHER AS THE CANADIAN TROUGH AND ATTENDING MOISTURE SWEEP EAST
OF THE AREA. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS SHOWING A SECOND LOW
APPROACHING THE NRN CALIFORNIA COAST (FURTHER EAST/MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE ECMWF) RESULTING IN A MOIST SW FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS SRN
IDAHO. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND
WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF INCOMING WAVES OR EVEN THE GROSS
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. BEST TO LEAVE THE FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW
UNTIL THE MODELS SHOW SOME CONSOLIDATION. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE A STRONG/MOIST NW FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUED DOWNSTREAM OVER SE IDAHO. THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE
GRADUALLY EDGING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND
LIGHTER WINDS RESULTING. HUSTON
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 260954
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
254 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPPER RIDGE PUSHING EAST TODAY AND EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION LEFT OVER IN THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. MAY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH ELEVATED SNOW LEVELS ABOVE
7 THOUSAND FEET. THE CHANCES FOR MAINLY MOUNTAINS SHOWERS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE RIVER HIGHLANDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SNOW LEVELS GENERALLY IN THE 5500 TO 6500 FOOT
RANGE. COULD SEE SOME MOUNTAIN TRAVEL PROBLEMS AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE CHANCES FOR HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW INCREASING.
GK

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE
THAT A MOIST UPPER LOW WILL SHEAR EAST THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH WRN CANADA
SATURDAY/SUNDAY. SE IDAHO WILL LIKELY SEE MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY
RAIN BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HAMPERING TRAVEL OVER LOCAL MOUNTAIN
PASSES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY GALENA SUMMIT AND TETON AND
PINE CREEK PASS. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING A BREAK IN
THE WEATHER AS THE CANADIAN TROUGH AND ATTENDING MOISTURE SWEEP EAST
OF THE AREA. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND IS SHOWING A SECOND LOW
APPROACHING THE NRN CALIFORNIA COAST (FURTHER EAST/MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE ECMWF) RESULTING IN A MOIST SW FLOW EXTENDING ACROSS SRN
IDAHO. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND
WITH LITTLE AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF INCOMING WAVES OR EVEN THE GROSS
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. BEST TO LEAVE THE FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW
UNTIL THE MODELS SHOW SOME CONSOLIDATION. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE A STRONG/MOIST NW FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUED DOWNSTREAM OVER SE IDAHO. THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE
GRADUALLY EDGING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND
LIGHTER WINDS RESULTING. HUSTON
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 260524
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1024 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

ALTHOUGH RADAR SHOWS SNOW QUICKLY DISSIPATING...WINDS ARE
MAINTAINING THEIR SPEEDS AT OR NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. DECIDED TO
CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BUT EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL 4 AM WHEN WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH OR SO.

VALLE

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 142 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOIST NW FLOW CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS/EASTERN HIGHLANDS WHERE THE
FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN. SNOW HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTN...BUT MORE IS EXPECTED THRU THE EVE. TWO TO FOUR ADDITIONAL
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ABOVE 6500 FEET UNTIL PRECIP
TAPERS OFF TO SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. THE SNAKE
PLAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP DUE TO BEING
IN THE SHADOW OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. LOOKS LIKE STRONG SW WINDS IN
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
THE EVE HOURS...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

BY WED...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE PAC NW/GREAT BASIN.
THIS WILL PUSH THE PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR ISOLD SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NE CORNER WHERE NW FLOW WILL STILL MANAGE TO
INTERACT WITH THE MTNS. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
THU...ALLOWING PAC MSTR TO FLOW BACK INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS. SNOW
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS INTO THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WED THU
FRI. HEDGES

LONG TERM...FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUE NIGHT. THIS ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD IS QUITE WET WITH LITTLE LET-UP IN PRECIPITATION OR WIND.
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAIN POPS ARE MAINLY CATEGORICAL FROM FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION IN STANLEY AS HIGH AS 82 PERCENT. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND LATEST GUIDANCE. THUS THE
TRAVEL DAYS AFTER THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WILL BE ROUGH GOING IF IT
MEANS PASSING THROUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE WINTER STORM THAT
ARRIVES DURING THAT TIME COMES FROM THE MID-PACIFIC AND IS BRINGING
FAIRLY MILD AIR. SNOW LEVEL SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT HIGH...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY.  EVEN TEMPERATURES AT STANLEY ARE FORECAST ABOVE
FREEZING...ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS LATELY. AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...THE DIFFICULTY
WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THESE CONDITIONS. THIS IS NOW THE
THIRD DAY IN A ROW THAT THIS SAT STORM HAS BEEN IN THE FORECAST AND
SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

BEYOND THIS STORM...THE SPLITTING FLOW THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS
EVENT IS STILL PUMPING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE GEM STATE ON
MON AND TUE. IT INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE SPLIT TO MEAN ANOTHER WINTER STORM EVENT FOR
TUE. THIS NEEDS A LITTLE MORE TRACKING BUT RIGHT NOW THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE POINTING TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO.  MESSICK

AVIATION...WIND IS REACHING EXPECTED LEVELS AT KPIH AND KIDA WITH
KBYI CLOSE BEHIND. LOCAL WIND STUDY INDICATES WIND TO STAY STRONG
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND PERIOD. THE MORE
DIFFICULT FORECAST IS THE CIG. NAM MOS CONTINUES TO INDICATE PERIOD
OF BELOW FIELD MINIMUMS FOR KPIH AND KIDA. WITH A TURBULENT
ATMOSPHERE AT AND BELOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DO NOT SEE HOW THAT IS
POSSIBLE...BUT MARGINAL VFR IS POSSIBLE. HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN
THE OPTIMISTIC GFS-MOS AND THE NAM-MOS...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE
GFS. WIND-STRATIFIED CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUGGESTS CLOSURE
CIGS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. BUT JUST HOW LOW IS SUBJECT TO QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME IFR CIGS DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THUS WOULD CALL THIS A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FOR THE THREE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AIRDROMES. KSUN SHOULD BE FINE IN
THE CIG AND VSBY DEPARTMENT...THE BIGGER QUESTION THERE IS IF THE
STRONG WIND ALOFT WILL SURFACE. THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE HAS BEEN
OCCURRING ALL DAY TODAY WITH 45KT WIND JUST 4.5KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE.
FORTUNATELY IT IS RIGHT DOWN THE RUNWAY AND THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE
EFFECT IS KEEPING CIG AND VSBY FROM BEING A PROBLEM. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MST WEDNESDAY IDZ017-021.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 260524
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1024 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

ALTHOUGH RADAR SHOWS SNOW QUICKLY DISSIPATING...WINDS ARE
MAINTAINING THEIR SPEEDS AT OR NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS. DECIDED TO
CANCEL THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BUT EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL 4 AM WHEN WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TO AROUND 15 MPH OR SO.

VALLE

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 142 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOIST NW FLOW CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS/EASTERN HIGHLANDS WHERE THE
FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN. SNOW HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTN...BUT MORE IS EXPECTED THRU THE EVE. TWO TO FOUR ADDITIONAL
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ABOVE 6500 FEET UNTIL PRECIP
TAPERS OFF TO SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. THE SNAKE
PLAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP DUE TO BEING
IN THE SHADOW OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. LOOKS LIKE STRONG SW WINDS IN
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
THE EVE HOURS...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

BY WED...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE PAC NW/GREAT BASIN.
THIS WILL PUSH THE PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR ISOLD SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NE CORNER WHERE NW FLOW WILL STILL MANAGE TO
INTERACT WITH THE MTNS. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
THU...ALLOWING PAC MSTR TO FLOW BACK INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS. SNOW
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS INTO THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WED THU
FRI. HEDGES

LONG TERM...FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUE NIGHT. THIS ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD IS QUITE WET WITH LITTLE LET-UP IN PRECIPITATION OR WIND.
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAIN POPS ARE MAINLY CATEGORICAL FROM FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION IN STANLEY AS HIGH AS 82 PERCENT. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND LATEST GUIDANCE. THUS THE
TRAVEL DAYS AFTER THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WILL BE ROUGH GOING IF IT
MEANS PASSING THROUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE WINTER STORM THAT
ARRIVES DURING THAT TIME COMES FROM THE MID-PACIFIC AND IS BRINGING
FAIRLY MILD AIR. SNOW LEVEL SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT HIGH...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY.  EVEN TEMPERATURES AT STANLEY ARE FORECAST ABOVE
FREEZING...ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS LATELY. AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...THE DIFFICULTY
WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THESE CONDITIONS. THIS IS NOW THE
THIRD DAY IN A ROW THAT THIS SAT STORM HAS BEEN IN THE FORECAST AND
SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

BEYOND THIS STORM...THE SPLITTING FLOW THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS
EVENT IS STILL PUMPING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE GEM STATE ON
MON AND TUE. IT INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE SPLIT TO MEAN ANOTHER WINTER STORM EVENT FOR
TUE. THIS NEEDS A LITTLE MORE TRACKING BUT RIGHT NOW THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE POINTING TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO.  MESSICK

AVIATION...WIND IS REACHING EXPECTED LEVELS AT KPIH AND KIDA WITH
KBYI CLOSE BEHIND. LOCAL WIND STUDY INDICATES WIND TO STAY STRONG
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND PERIOD. THE MORE
DIFFICULT FORECAST IS THE CIG. NAM MOS CONTINUES TO INDICATE PERIOD
OF BELOW FIELD MINIMUMS FOR KPIH AND KIDA. WITH A TURBULENT
ATMOSPHERE AT AND BELOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DO NOT SEE HOW THAT IS
POSSIBLE...BUT MARGINAL VFR IS POSSIBLE. HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN
THE OPTIMISTIC GFS-MOS AND THE NAM-MOS...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE
GFS. WIND-STRATIFIED CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUGGESTS CLOSURE
CIGS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. BUT JUST HOW LOW IS SUBJECT TO QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME IFR CIGS DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THUS WOULD CALL THIS A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FOR THE THREE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AIRDROMES. KSUN SHOULD BE FINE IN
THE CIG AND VSBY DEPARTMENT...THE BIGGER QUESTION THERE IS IF THE
STRONG WIND ALOFT WILL SURFACE. THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE HAS BEEN
OCCURRING ALL DAY TODAY WITH 45KT WIND JUST 4.5KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE.
FORTUNATELY IT IS RIGHT DOWN THE RUNWAY AND THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE
EFFECT IS KEEPING CIG AND VSBY FROM BEING A PROBLEM. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM MST WEDNESDAY IDZ017-021.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 260406
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
906 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO
FALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING. SOME AREAS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS PERSIST
AS OF 04Z. WINDS AND SNOW IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE REGION
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A
LATE UPDATE TO CANCEL/EXPIRE ALL ADVISORIES PROBABLY BETWEEN
05-06Z. WILL ISSUE LOCAL STORM REPORT SHORTLY WITH AREA SNOW
REPORTS FROM SNOWTEL NETWORK.

VALLE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 142 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOIST NW FLOW CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS/EASTERN HIGHLANDS WHERE THE
FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN. SNOW HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTN...BUT MORE IS EXPECTED THRU THE EVE. TWO TO FOUR ADDITIONAL
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ABOVE 6500 FEET UNTIL PRECIP
TAPERS OFF TO SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. THE SNAKE
PLAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP DUE TO BEING
IN THE SHADOW OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. LOOKS LIKE STRONG SW WINDS IN
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
THE EVE HOURS...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

BY WED...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE PAC NW/GREAT BASIN.
THIS WILL PUSH THE PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR ISOLD SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NE CORNER WHERE NW FLOW WILL STILL MANAGE TO
INTERACT WITH THE MTNS. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
THU...ALLOWING PAC MSTR TO FLOW BACK INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS. SNOW
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS INTO THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WED THU
FRI. HEDGES

LONG TERM...FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUE NIGHT. THIS ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD IS QUITE WET WITH LITTLE LET-UP IN PRECIPITATION OR WIND.
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAIN POPS ARE MAINLY CATEGORICAL FROM FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION IN STANLEY AS HIGH AS 82 PERCENT. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND LATEST GUIDANCE. THUS THE
TRAVEL DAYS AFTER THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WILL BE ROUGH GOING IF IT
MEANS PASSING THROUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE WINTER STORM THAT
ARRIVES DURING THAT TIME COMES FROM THE MID-PACIFIC AND IS BRINGING
FAIRLY MILD AIR. SNOW LEVEL SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT HIGH...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY.  EVEN TEMPERATURES AT STANLEY ARE FORECAST ABOVE
FREEZING...ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS LATELY. AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...THE DIFFICULTY
WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THESE CONDITIONS. THIS IS NOW THE
THIRD DAY IN A ROW THAT THIS SAT STORM HAS BEEN IN THE FORECAST AND
SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

BEYOND THIS STORM...THE SPLITTING FLOW THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS
EVENT IS STILL PUMPING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE GEM STATE ON
MON AND TUE. IT INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE SPLIT TO MEAN ANOTHER WINTER STORM EVENT FOR
TUE. THIS NEEDS A LITTLE MORE TRACKING BUT RIGHT NOW THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE POINTING TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO.  MESSICK

AVIATION...WIND IS REACHING EXPECTED LEVELS AT KPIH AND KIDA WITH
KBYI CLOSE BEHIND. LOCAL WIND STUDY INDICATES WIND TO STAY STRONG
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND PERIOD. THE MORE
DIFFICULT FORECAST IS THE CIG. NAM MOS CONTINUES TO INDICATE PERIOD
OF BELOW FIELD MINIMUMS FOR KPIH AND KIDA. WITH A TURBULENT
ATMOSPHERE AT AND BELOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DO NOT SEE HOW THAT IS
POSSIBLE...BUT MARGINAL VFR IS POSSIBLE. HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN
THE OPTIMISTIC GFS-MOS AND THE NAM-MOS...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE
GFS. WIND-STRATIFIED CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUGGESTS CLOSURE
CIGS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. BUT JUST HOW LOW IS SUBJECT TO QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME IFR CIGS DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THUS WOULD CALL THIS A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FOR THE THREE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AIRDROMES. KSUN SHOULD BE FINE IN
THE CIG AND VSBY DEPARTMENT...THE BIGGER QUESTION THERE IS IF THE
STRONG WIND ALOFT WILL SURFACE. THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE HAS BEEN
OCCURRING ALL DAY TODAY WITH 45KT WIND JUST 4.5KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE.
FORTUNATELY IT IS RIGHT DOWN THE RUNWAY AND THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE
EFFECT IS KEEPING CIG AND VSBY FROM BEING A PROBLEM. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT IDZ017-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT ABOVE 6500
FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT ABOVE 7000
FEET FOR THE IDZ018-031.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 260406
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
906 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO
FALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE UPPER SNAKE
HIGHLANDS THIS EVENING. SOME AREAS OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS PERSIST
AS OF 04Z. WINDS AND SNOW IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE REGION
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ANTICIPATE A
LATE UPDATE TO CANCEL/EXPIRE ALL ADVISORIES PROBABLY BETWEEN
05-06Z. WILL ISSUE LOCAL STORM REPORT SHORTLY WITH AREA SNOW
REPORTS FROM SNOWTEL NETWORK.

VALLE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 142 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOIST NW FLOW CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS/EASTERN HIGHLANDS WHERE THE
FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN. SNOW HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTN...BUT MORE IS EXPECTED THRU THE EVE. TWO TO FOUR ADDITIONAL
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ABOVE 6500 FEET UNTIL PRECIP
TAPERS OFF TO SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. THE SNAKE
PLAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP DUE TO BEING
IN THE SHADOW OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. LOOKS LIKE STRONG SW WINDS IN
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
THE EVE HOURS...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

BY WED...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE PAC NW/GREAT BASIN.
THIS WILL PUSH THE PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR ISOLD SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NE CORNER WHERE NW FLOW WILL STILL MANAGE TO
INTERACT WITH THE MTNS. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
THU...ALLOWING PAC MSTR TO FLOW BACK INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS. SNOW
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS INTO THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WED THU
FRI. HEDGES

LONG TERM...FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUE NIGHT. THIS ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD IS QUITE WET WITH LITTLE LET-UP IN PRECIPITATION OR WIND.
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAIN POPS ARE MAINLY CATEGORICAL FROM FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION IN STANLEY AS HIGH AS 82 PERCENT. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND LATEST GUIDANCE. THUS THE
TRAVEL DAYS AFTER THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WILL BE ROUGH GOING IF IT
MEANS PASSING THROUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE WINTER STORM THAT
ARRIVES DURING THAT TIME COMES FROM THE MID-PACIFIC AND IS BRINGING
FAIRLY MILD AIR. SNOW LEVEL SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT HIGH...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY.  EVEN TEMPERATURES AT STANLEY ARE FORECAST ABOVE
FREEZING...ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS LATELY. AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...THE DIFFICULTY
WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THESE CONDITIONS. THIS IS NOW THE
THIRD DAY IN A ROW THAT THIS SAT STORM HAS BEEN IN THE FORECAST AND
SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

BEYOND THIS STORM...THE SPLITTING FLOW THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS
EVENT IS STILL PUMPING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE GEM STATE ON
MON AND TUE. IT INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE SPLIT TO MEAN ANOTHER WINTER STORM EVENT FOR
TUE. THIS NEEDS A LITTLE MORE TRACKING BUT RIGHT NOW THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE POINTING TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO.  MESSICK

AVIATION...WIND IS REACHING EXPECTED LEVELS AT KPIH AND KIDA WITH
KBYI CLOSE BEHIND. LOCAL WIND STUDY INDICATES WIND TO STAY STRONG
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND PERIOD. THE MORE
DIFFICULT FORECAST IS THE CIG. NAM MOS CONTINUES TO INDICATE PERIOD
OF BELOW FIELD MINIMUMS FOR KPIH AND KIDA. WITH A TURBULENT
ATMOSPHERE AT AND BELOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DO NOT SEE HOW THAT IS
POSSIBLE...BUT MARGINAL VFR IS POSSIBLE. HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN
THE OPTIMISTIC GFS-MOS AND THE NAM-MOS...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE
GFS. WIND-STRATIFIED CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUGGESTS CLOSURE
CIGS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. BUT JUST HOW LOW IS SUBJECT TO QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME IFR CIGS DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THUS WOULD CALL THIS A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FOR THE THREE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AIRDROMES. KSUN SHOULD BE FINE IN
THE CIG AND VSBY DEPARTMENT...THE BIGGER QUESTION THERE IS IF THE
STRONG WIND ALOFT WILL SURFACE. THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE HAS BEEN
OCCURRING ALL DAY TODAY WITH 45KT WIND JUST 4.5KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE.
FORTUNATELY IT IS RIGHT DOWN THE RUNWAY AND THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE
EFFECT IS KEEPING CIG AND VSBY FROM BEING A PROBLEM. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT IDZ017-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT ABOVE 6500
FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT ABOVE 7000
FEET FOR THE IDZ018-031.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 252042
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
142 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MOIST NW FLOW CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS/EASTERN HIGHLANDS WHERE THE
FLOW INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN. SNOW HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTN...BUT MORE IS EXPECTED THRU THE EVE. TWO TO FOUR ADDITIONAL
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ABOVE 6500 FEET UNTIL PRECIP
TAPERS OFF TO SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. THE SNAKE
PLAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP DUE TO BEING
IN THE SHADOW OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. LOOKS LIKE STRONG SW WINDS IN
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
THE EVE HOURS...SO HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

BY WED...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH INTO THE PAC NW/GREAT BASIN.
THIS WILL PUSH THE PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR ISOLD SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE NE CORNER WHERE NW FLOW WILL STILL MANAGE TO
INTERACT WITH THE MTNS. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS TO ZONAL FLOW ON
THU...ALLOWING PAC MSTR TO FLOW BACK INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS. SNOW
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS INTO THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WED THU
FRI. HEDGES

.LONG TERM...FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUE NIGHT. THIS ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD IS QUITE WET WITH LITTLE LET-UP IN PRECIPIATION OR WIND.
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAIN POPS ARE MAINLY CATEGORICAL FROM FRI NIGHT
THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION IN STANLEY AS HIGH AS 82 PERCENT. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND LATEST GUIDANCE. THUS THE
TRAVEL DAYS AFTER THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WILL BE ROUGH GOING IF IT
MEANS PASSING THROUGH THE HIGH COUNTRY. THE WINTER STORM THAT
ARRIVES DURING THAT TIME COMES FROM THE MID-PACIFIC AND IS BRINGING
FAIRLY MILD AIR. SNOW LEVEL SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT HIGH...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY.  EVEN TEMPERATURES AT STANLEY ARE FORECAST ABOVE
FREEZING...ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE HAS HAD A WARM BIAS LATELY. AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...THE DIFFICULTY
WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THESE CONDITIONS. THIS IS NOW THE
THIRD DAY IN A ROW THAT THIS SAT STORM HAS BEEN IN THE FORECAST AND
SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

BEYOND THIS STORM...THE SPLITTING FLOW THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THIS
EVENT IS STILL PUMPING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE GEM STATE ON
MON AND TUE. IT INTERACTS WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE SPLIT TO MEAN ANOTHER WINTER STORM EVENT FOR
TUE. THIS NEEDS A LITTLE MORE TRACKING BUT RIGHT NOW THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE POINTING TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO.  MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...WIND IS REACHING EXPECTED LEVELS AT KPIH AND KIDA WITH
KBYI CLOSE BEHIND. LOCAL WIND STUDY INDICATES WIND TO STAY STRONG
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE WIND PERIOD. THE MORE
DIFFICULT FORECAST IS THE CIG. NAM MOS CONTINUES TO INDICATE PERIOD
OF BELOW FIELD MINIMUMS FOR KPIH AND KIDA. WITH A TURBULENT
ATMOSPHERE AT AND BELOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER...DO NOT SEE HOW THAT IS
POSSIBLE...BUT MARGINAL VFR IS POSSIBLE. HAVE COMPROMISED BETWEEN
THE OPTIMISTIC GFS-MOS AND THE NAM-MOS...WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE
GFS. WIND-STRATIFIED CONDITIONAL CLIMATOLOGY ALSO SUGGESTS CLOSURE
CIGS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. BUT JUST HOW LOW IS SUBJECT TO QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME IFR CIGS DURING
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THUS WOULD CALL THIS A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST
FOR THE THREE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AIRDROMES. KSUN SHOULD BE FINE IN
THE CIG AND VSBY DEPARTMENT...THE BIGGER QUESTION THERE IS IF THE
STRONG WIND ALOFT WILL SURFACE. THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE HAS BEEN
OCCURING ALL DAY TODAY WITH 45KT WIND JUST 4.5KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE.
FORTUNATELY IT IS RIGHT DOWN THE RUNWAY AND THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE
EFFECT IS KEEPING CIG AND VSBY FROM BEING A PROBLEM. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT IDZ017-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT ABOVE 6500
FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT ABOVE 7000
FEET FOR THE IDZ018-031.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 251015
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
315 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WITH THE BRUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH EAST OF THE UPPER
RIDGE BRINGING THE SNOWFALL WITH EXTENSIVE PACIFIC MOISTURE
ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY IN THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 25 TO 35 MPH. ANY SNOW IN THE SNAKE PLAIN SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE
TO RAIN THIS MORNING AND EXPECT MAINLY RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT WITH IT CONTINUING LONGEST IN THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
GK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MED RANGE. OVERALL PATTERN STILL SUGGESTING
ENCROACHMENT OF COLD CANADIAN TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD AIR MASS REMAINS NORTH OF DIVIDE BUT
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS EAST IDAHO THROUGH THE
PERIOD. RIDGE RE AMPLIFIES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH NEXT
AMPLIFIED PACIFIC TROUGH SPREADING INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS INDICATION THAT THE NEXT TROUGH
COULD SPLIT BUT THIS IS WHERE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED HIGHER ELEVATION
POPS FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE TEMPS REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TEMPS DO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW
GENERALLY ABOVE 6000 FT...WHICH COULD CAUSE HOLIDAY RETURN TRAVEL
ISSUES. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH ALBERTA EARLY THIS MORNING
FORCING MOISTURE ACROSS EAST IDAHO IN NORTHWEST FLOW. RADAR SHOWING
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RETURNS OVER THE REGION BUT SO FAR SNOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS FAVORABLE TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OROGRAPHICS. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST
CEILINGS DROP REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT TO MVFR WITH LIGHT PRECIP MOST
OF THE REGION. WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE STRONGEST KBYI/KPIH. WILL NUDGE WINDS UP SLIGHTLY THOSE
TERMINALS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT PUSHING
PRECIP EAST INTO MONTANA/WYOMING. QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SUPPORT IT WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND GUIDANCE LEANING
STRONGLY THAT DIRECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TERMINALS IN THAT
DIRECTION. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
IDZ017-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT ABOVE 6500
FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT ABOVE 7000
FEET FOR THE IDZ018-031.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 251015
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
315 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WITH THE BRUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH EAST OF THE UPPER
RIDGE BRINGING THE SNOWFALL WITH EXTENSIVE PACIFIC MOISTURE
ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY IN THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 25 TO 35 MPH. ANY SNOW IN THE SNAKE PLAIN SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE
TO RAIN THIS MORNING AND EXPECT MAINLY RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT WITH IT CONTINUING LONGEST IN THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
GK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MED RANGE. OVERALL PATTERN STILL SUGGESTING
ENCROACHMENT OF COLD CANADIAN TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD AIR MASS REMAINS NORTH OF DIVIDE BUT
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS EAST IDAHO THROUGH THE
PERIOD. RIDGE RE AMPLIFIES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH NEXT
AMPLIFIED PACIFIC TROUGH SPREADING INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS INDICATION THAT THE NEXT TROUGH
COULD SPLIT BUT THIS IS WHERE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED HIGHER ELEVATION
POPS FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE TEMPS REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TEMPS DO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW
GENERALLY ABOVE 6000 FT...WHICH COULD CAUSE HOLIDAY RETURN TRAVEL
ISSUES. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH ALBERTA EARLY THIS MORNING
FORCING MOISTURE ACROSS EAST IDAHO IN NORTHWEST FLOW. RADAR SHOWING
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RETURNS OVER THE REGION BUT SO FAR SNOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS FAVORABLE TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OROGRAPHICS. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST
CEILINGS DROP REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT TO MVFR WITH LIGHT PRECIP MOST
OF THE REGION. WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE STRONGEST KBYI/KPIH. WILL NUDGE WINDS UP SLIGHTLY THOSE
TERMINALS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT PUSHING
PRECIP EAST INTO MONTANA/WYOMING. QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SUPPORT IT WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND GUIDANCE LEANING
STRONGLY THAT DIRECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TERMINALS IN THAT
DIRECTION. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
IDZ017-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT ABOVE 6500
FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT ABOVE 7000
FEET FOR THE IDZ018-031.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 251015
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
315 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WITH THE BRUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH EAST OF THE UPPER
RIDGE BRINGING THE SNOWFALL WITH EXTENSIVE PACIFIC MOISTURE
ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY IN THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 25 TO 35 MPH. ANY SNOW IN THE SNAKE PLAIN SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE
TO RAIN THIS MORNING AND EXPECT MAINLY RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT WITH IT CONTINUING LONGEST IN THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
GK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MED RANGE. OVERALL PATTERN STILL SUGGESTING
ENCROACHMENT OF COLD CANADIAN TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD AIR MASS REMAINS NORTH OF DIVIDE BUT
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS EAST IDAHO THROUGH THE
PERIOD. RIDGE RE AMPLIFIES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH NEXT
AMPLIFIED PACIFIC TROUGH SPREADING INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS INDICATION THAT THE NEXT TROUGH
COULD SPLIT BUT THIS IS WHERE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED HIGHER ELEVATION
POPS FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE TEMPS REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TEMPS DO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW
GENERALLY ABOVE 6000 FT...WHICH COULD CAUSE HOLIDAY RETURN TRAVEL
ISSUES. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH ALBERTA EARLY THIS MORNING
FORCING MOISTURE ACROSS EAST IDAHO IN NORTHWEST FLOW. RADAR SHOWING
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RETURNS OVER THE REGION BUT SO FAR SNOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS FAVORABLE TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OROGRAPHICS. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST
CEILINGS DROP REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT TO MVFR WITH LIGHT PRECIP MOST
OF THE REGION. WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE STRONGEST KBYI/KPIH. WILL NUDGE WINDS UP SLIGHTLY THOSE
TERMINALS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT PUSHING
PRECIP EAST INTO MONTANA/WYOMING. QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SUPPORT IT WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND GUIDANCE LEANING
STRONGLY THAT DIRECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TERMINALS IN THAT
DIRECTION. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
IDZ017-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT ABOVE 6500
FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT ABOVE 7000
FEET FOR THE IDZ018-031.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 251015
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
315 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WITH THE BRUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES STILL IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
THE MOUNTAINS. A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH EAST OF THE UPPER
RIDGE BRINGING THE SNOWFALL WITH EXTENSIVE PACIFIC MOISTURE
ENTRAINED IN THE FLOW. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY IN THE SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND HAVE ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 25 TO 35 MPH. ANY SNOW IN THE SNAKE PLAIN SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE
TO RAIN THIS MORNING AND EXPECT MAINLY RAIN WITH THIS EVENT. SNOW
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT WITH IT CONTINUING LONGEST IN THE
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.
GK

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MED RANGE. OVERALL PATTERN STILL SUGGESTING
ENCROACHMENT OF COLD CANADIAN TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. COLD AIR MASS REMAINS NORTH OF DIVIDE BUT
DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS EAST IDAHO THROUGH THE
PERIOD. RIDGE RE AMPLIFIES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH NEXT
AMPLIFIED PACIFIC TROUGH SPREADING INTO THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST LATE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS INDICATION THAT THE NEXT TROUGH
COULD SPLIT BUT THIS IS WHERE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED HIGHER ELEVATION
POPS FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE TEMPS REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TEMPS DO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW
GENERALLY ABOVE 6000 FT...WHICH COULD CAUSE HOLIDAY RETURN TRAVEL
ISSUES. DMH

&&

.AVIATION...SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH ALBERTA EARLY THIS MORNING
FORCING MOISTURE ACROSS EAST IDAHO IN NORTHWEST FLOW. RADAR SHOWING
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RETURNS OVER THE REGION BUT SO FAR SNOW APPEARS TO
REMAIN CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND AREAS FAVORABLE TO
NORTHWEST FLOW OROGRAPHICS. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST
CEILINGS DROP REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT TO MVFR WITH LIGHT PRECIP MOST
OF THE REGION. WINDS STRENGTHEN AGAIN DURING THE DAY TODAY AND WILL
LIKELY BE STRONGEST KBYI/KPIH. WILL NUDGE WINDS UP SLIGHTLY THOSE
TERMINALS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT PUSHING
PRECIP EAST INTO MONTANA/WYOMING. QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STRATUS OVERNIGHT. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SUPPORT IT WITH AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND GUIDANCE LEANING
STRONGLY THAT DIRECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TERMINALS IN THAT
DIRECTION. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
IDZ017-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT ABOVE 6500
FEET FOR THE IDZ019-023-025.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT ABOVE 7000
FEET FOR THE IDZ018-031.

&&

$$








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