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000
FXUS65 KPIH 020322
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
922 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...THUNDERSTORMS LEFT THIS EVENING IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN HIGHLANDS. ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED
PAST COUPLE HOURS AND EXPECT TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM NEAR RENO/TAHOE SHOULD PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR SHOWING EVIDENCE OF
CONVECTION REFORMING IN SOUTHWEST IDAHO LATE TONIGHT AND REACHING
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNRISE. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS THIS
SCENARIO DOESNT SEEM TOO FARFETCHED. EARLY LOOK AT NAM SUPPORTS
THIS IDEA AS WELL THOUGH SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN HRRR WHICH KEEPS
MUCH OF EAST IDAHO DRY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH PACNW COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A TAIL TO KEEP WEAK THREAT
GOING IN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. HAVE LEFT 06-12Z POPS AS
THEY ARE WITH VERY WEAK POPS CENTRAL MOUNTAINS /ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION OVERNIGHT/ AND WEAK SINGLE DIGIT POPS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE ONLY EDITS THIS EVENING
WERE TO ADJUST EVENING POP/WX GRIDS TO FIT CURRENT RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS. DMH



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 153 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM OREGON INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY GETTING
STARTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BEAVER CREEK BURN SCAR FROM LAST
YEAR...WHICH REMAINS SUBJECT TO SLIDES AND QUICK RUN OFF WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. MAIN DIFFERENCE TODAY IS STEERING WINDS ARE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY RATHER THAN NORTHERLY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY.
SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A LIMITED SURGE OF MONSOON
MOISTURE UP FROM NEVADA TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THAT MOISTURE LINGERS ON SUNDAY UNDER VERY
LIGHT FLOW PATTERN SO MORE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUT DOWN SOME GOOD RAIN WILL REPEAT.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS
ARE SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW CROSSING
CALIFORNIA TO NEVADA AND THEN TO IDAHO. THE INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
FRONT OFF THE LOW REACHES THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS CLOSE TO
MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SLIGHT VARIATIONS BETWEEN MODELS BUT
OVERALL THEY HINT AT THIS LOW BRING SOME FAIRLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO BETWEEN MONDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLY .5 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD. MAYBE SOME WETTER SPOTS. GFS
MODEL SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE FEED BACK THAT NEEDS TO BE TAKEN IN
STRIDE WITH THE FORECAST. GFS IS ALSO SLOWER TO CLEAR PRECIPITATION
OUT OF THE AREA EVEN ON THURSDAY. RS

AVIATION...NO CHANGES IN THIS ONGOING MONSOON PATTERN ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO. WE ARE CARRYING VCTS FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH VFR
WEATHER EXPECTED. REDUCED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND/OR WINDS. KEYES

FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN
IDAHO WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A
PROBLEM. WE SHOULD SCATTERED STORMS TOMORROW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS. BASED ON RECENT
HEAVY RAIN IN THE AREA...SIMILAR FORECASTS AND SOME COORDINATION WE
WILL NOT BE ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THOSE ZONES. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE A BIT LESS ON SUNDAY BUT STILL LOOK FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR MONDAY ONWARD...WE ARE LOOKING AT MULTIPLE DAYS
OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN AS A SLOW MOVING STORM FROM BAJA MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. RIGHT NOW...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT TOO MUCH EARLY CLOUD
COVER THAT WOULD MAKE THINGS TOO STABLE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDER. THIS
IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE ON MONDAY. EVEN IF THAT IS THE
CASE...PREDICTED RAINFALL PER DAY COULD EXCEED 0.50 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. STAY TUNED.  KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 011953
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
153 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM OREGON INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY GETTING
STARTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BEAVER CREEK BURN SCAR FROM LAST
YEAR...WHICH REMAINS SUBJECT TO SLIDES AND QUICK RUN OFF WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. MAIN DIFFERENCE TODAY IS STEERING WINDS ARE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY RATHER THAN NORTHERLY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY.
SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A LIMITED SURGE OF MONSOON
MOISTURE UP FROM NEVADA TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THAT MOISTURE LINGERS ON SUNDAY UNDER VERY
LIGHT FLOW PATTERN SO MORE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUT DOWN SOME GOOD RAIN WILL REPEAT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS
ARE SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW CROSSING
CALIFORNIA TO NEVADA AND THEN TO IDAHO. THE INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
FRONT OFF THE LOW REACHES THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS CLOSE TO
MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SLIGHT VARIATIONS BETWEEN MODELS BUT
OVERALL THEY HINT AT THIS LOW BRING SOME FAIRLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO BETWEEN MONDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLY .5 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD. MAYBE SOME WETTER SPOTS. GFS
MODEL SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE FEED BACK THAT NEEDS TO BE TAKEN IN
STRIDE WITH THE FORECAST. GFS IS ALSO SLOWER TO CLEAR PRECIPITATION
OUT OF THE AREA EVEN ON THURSDAY. RS

&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGES IN THIS ONGOING MONSOON PATTERN ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO. WE ARE CARRYING VCTS FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH VFR
WEATHER EXPECTED. REDUCED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND/OR WINDS. KEYES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN
IDAHO WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A
PROBLEM. WE SHOULD SCATTERED STORMS TOMORROW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS. BASED ON RECENT
HEAVY RAIN IN THE AREA...SIMILAR FORECASTS AND SOME COORDINATION WE
WILL NOT BE ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THOSE ZONES. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE A BIT LESS ON SUNDAY BUT STILL LOOK FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR MONDAY ONWARD...WE ARE LOOKING AT MULTIPLE DAYS
OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN AS A SLOW MOVING STORM FROM BAJA MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. RIGHT NOW...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT TOO MUCH EARLY CLOUD
COVER THAT WOULD MAKE THINGS TOO STABLE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDER. THIS
IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE ON MONDAY. EVEN IF THAT IS THE
CASE...PREDICTED RAINFALL PER DAY COULD EXCEED 0.50 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. STAY TUNED.  KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 011953
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
153 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM OREGON INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY GETTING
STARTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE BEAVER CREEK BURN SCAR FROM LAST
YEAR...WHICH REMAINS SUBJECT TO SLIDES AND QUICK RUN OFF WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. MAIN DIFFERENCE TODAY IS STEERING WINDS ARE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY RATHER THAN NORTHERLY AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY.
SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING A LIMITED SURGE OF MONSOON
MOISTURE UP FROM NEVADA TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THAT MOISTURE LINGERS ON SUNDAY UNDER VERY
LIGHT FLOW PATTERN SO MORE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUT DOWN SOME GOOD RAIN WILL REPEAT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS
ARE SHOWING SOME CONSISTENCY WITH A DEVELOPING LOW CROSSING
CALIFORNIA TO NEVADA AND THEN TO IDAHO. THE INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
FRONT OFF THE LOW REACHES THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS CLOSE TO
MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE SLIGHT VARIATIONS BETWEEN MODELS BUT
OVERALL THEY HINT AT THIS LOW BRING SOME FAIRLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO BETWEEN MONDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. POSSIBLY .5 TO 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD. MAYBE SOME WETTER SPOTS. GFS
MODEL SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE FEED BACK THAT NEEDS TO BE TAKEN IN
STRIDE WITH THE FORECAST. GFS IS ALSO SLOWER TO CLEAR PRECIPITATION
OUT OF THE AREA EVEN ON THURSDAY. RS

&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGES IN THIS ONGOING MONSOON PATTERN ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO. WE ARE CARRYING VCTS FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH VFR
WEATHER EXPECTED. REDUCED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND/OR WINDS. KEYES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN
IDAHO WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A
PROBLEM. WE SHOULD SCATTERED STORMS TOMORROW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS. BASED ON RECENT
HEAVY RAIN IN THE AREA...SIMILAR FORECASTS AND SOME COORDINATION WE
WILL NOT BE ISSUING A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THOSE ZONES. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE A BIT LESS ON SUNDAY BUT STILL LOOK FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR MONDAY ONWARD...WE ARE LOOKING AT MULTIPLE DAYS
OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN AS A SLOW MOVING STORM FROM BAJA MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. RIGHT NOW...WE MAY BE LOOKING AT TOO MUCH EARLY CLOUD
COVER THAT WOULD MAKE THINGS TOO STABLE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDER. THIS
IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE ON MONDAY. EVEN IF THAT IS THE
CASE...PREDICTED RAINFALL PER DAY COULD EXCEED 0.50 INCHES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. STAY TUNED.  KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 010832
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
232 AM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
EXTENSIVE MOISTURE STILL PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO AS UPPER
RIDGE OVERHEAD AND SLOWLY MOVING EAST. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
MODELS FOCUSING ON CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST TO UPPER SNAKE RIVER
HIGHLANDS TO BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS THROUGH THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES AS WELL.
GK

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MODELS DIFFER A BIT IN LONG TERM. EUROPEAN DRIVES A CLOSE LOW
THROUGH WESTERN IDAHO MONDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE
HEAVY RAIN OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO THROUGH THE PERIOD. GFS
HAS MUCH WEAKER UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST UTAH INTO
WESTERN WYOMING BEFORE OPENING IT UP. GFS HAS MUCH LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION IN THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME THAN EUROPEAN.
FOR NOW JUST KEPT IN THE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IN THE MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. BOTH MODELS TREND TOWARD DRYING IT OUT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE EUROPEAN WITH ANOTHER STRONG
SYSTEM NEXT FRIDAY.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE REGION
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. HEAVY
RAIN...LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE MAIN THREATS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.

VALLE

&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 010317
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
917 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...CONVECTION CONTINUES MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
HAILEY TO ISLAND PARK. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSHING DOWN THE SNAKE
PLAIN KEEP FIRING A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15. BELIEVE MOST OF THIS SECONDARY CONVECTION WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. HAVE DECREASED POPS OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. DMH



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SINCE THERE IS LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF FORCING OTHER THAN OROGRAPHIC LIFT...AND MUCH OF THAT SHOULD
BE FOCUSED IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AT LEAST  SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE FRIDAY WITH AN EMBEDDED WAVE
OFF THE PACIFIC MOVING THROUGH OREGON AND NORTHERN IDAHO. MORE
SUPPORT IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS FROM BEAR LAKE TO
PALISADES RESERVOIR. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MODELS SUPPORT A LIMITED
SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH FROM EASTERN NEVADA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. EARLY MORNING TIMING OF OF A DISTURBANCE CROSSING
CALIFORNIA TO IDAHO COULD BE A SET UP FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
LIGHTNING TO DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY.
ACTIVITY THEN EXPANDS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BY SUNDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING WHICH
SHOULD FOCUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL...EASTERN
AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. THE GFS MODEL IN PARTICULAR BRINGS YET
ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE TO IDAHO ON MONDAY. THEN MORE
ZONAL FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RS

AVIATION...MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED. WE WILL SEE DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT VFR WEATHER EXCEPT WITH STRONGER STORMS WHERE
THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  KEYES

FIRE WEATHER...WE CAN EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ACROSS THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE VERY
CLOSE TO SEEING SCATTERED STORMS IN SOME MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. FOR
NOW...THAT WILL KEEP US OUT OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR AREAS
CURRENTLY WITH CRITICAL FUELS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY INDEED SEE
HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS AREAWIDE DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MONSOON MOISTURE AND A COUPLE OF STRONGER DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH. WE MAY NEED RED FLAG HEADLINES FOR ONE OR BOTH DAYS BASED
ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREATS. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN...WE ARE STILL
DEALING WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY DAILY AS THE MODELS TEND TO NOT PICK
UP SOME DETAILS UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE AN EVENT BEGINS.  KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 010317
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
917 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...CONVECTION CONTINUES MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
HAILEY TO ISLAND PARK. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSHING DOWN THE SNAKE
PLAIN KEEP FIRING A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 15. BELIEVE MOST OF THIS SECONDARY CONVECTION WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. HAVE DECREASED POPS OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. DMH



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014/

SHORT TERM...EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SINCE THERE IS LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF FORCING OTHER THAN OROGRAPHIC LIFT...AND MUCH OF THAT SHOULD
BE FOCUSED IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AT LEAST  SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE FRIDAY WITH AN EMBEDDED WAVE
OFF THE PACIFIC MOVING THROUGH OREGON AND NORTHERN IDAHO. MORE
SUPPORT IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS FROM BEAR LAKE TO
PALISADES RESERVOIR. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MODELS SUPPORT A LIMITED
SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH FROM EASTERN NEVADA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. EARLY MORNING TIMING OF OF A DISTURBANCE CROSSING
CALIFORNIA TO IDAHO COULD BE A SET UP FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
LIGHTNING TO DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY.
ACTIVITY THEN EXPANDS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BY SUNDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING WHICH
SHOULD FOCUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL...EASTERN
AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. THE GFS MODEL IN PARTICULAR BRINGS YET
ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE TO IDAHO ON MONDAY. THEN MORE
ZONAL FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RS

AVIATION...MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED. WE WILL SEE DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT VFR WEATHER EXCEPT WITH STRONGER STORMS WHERE
THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  KEYES

FIRE WEATHER...WE CAN EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ACROSS THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE VERY
CLOSE TO SEEING SCATTERED STORMS IN SOME MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. FOR
NOW...THAT WILL KEEP US OUT OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR AREAS
CURRENTLY WITH CRITICAL FUELS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY INDEED SEE
HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS AREAWIDE DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MONSOON MOISTURE AND A COUPLE OF STRONGER DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH. WE MAY NEED RED FLAG HEADLINES FOR ONE OR BOTH DAYS BASED
ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREATS. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN...WE ARE STILL
DEALING WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY DAILY AS THE MODELS TEND TO NOT PICK
UP SOME DETAILS UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE AN EVENT BEGINS.  KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 312005
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
205 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SINCE THERE IS LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF FORCING OTHER THAN OROGRAPHIC LIFT...AND MUCH OF THAT SHOULD
BE FOCUSED IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AT LEAST  SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE FRIDAY WITH AN EMBEDDED WAVE
OFF THE PACIFIC MOVING THROUGH OREGON AND NORTHERN IDAHO. MORE
SUPPORT IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS FROM BEAR LAKE TO
PALISADES RESERVOIR. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MODELS SUPPORT A LIMITED
SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH FROM EASTERN NEVADA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. EARLY MORNING TIMING OF OF A DISTURBANCE CROSSING
CALIFORNIA TO IDAHO COULD BE A SET UP FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
LIGHTNING TO DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY.
ACTIVITY THEN EXPANDS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BY SUNDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING WHICH
SHOULD FOCUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL...EASTERN
AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. THE GFS MODEL IN PARTICULAR BRINGS YET
ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE TO IDAHO ON MONDAY. THEN MORE
ZONAL FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RS

&&

.AVIATION...MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED. WE WILL SEE DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT VFR WEATHER EXCEPT WITH STRONGER STORMS WHERE
THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  KEYES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE CAN EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ACROSS THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE VERY
CLOSE TO SEEING SCATTERED STORMS IN SOME MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. FOR
NOW...THAT WILL KEEP US OUT OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR AREAS
CURRENTLY WITH CRITICAL FUELS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY INDEED SEE
HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS AREAWIDE DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MONSOON MOISTURE AND A COUPLE OF STRONGER DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH. WE MAY NEED RED FLAG HEADLINES FOR ONE OR BOTH DAYS BASED
ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREATS. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN...WE ARE STILL
DEALING WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY DAILY AS THE MODELS TEND TO NOT PICK
UP SOME DETAILS UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE AN EVENT BEGINS.  KEYES

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 312005
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
205 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SINCE THERE IS LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF FORCING OTHER THAN OROGRAPHIC LIFT...AND MUCH OF THAT SHOULD
BE FOCUSED IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AT LEAST  SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE FRIDAY WITH AN EMBEDDED WAVE
OFF THE PACIFIC MOVING THROUGH OREGON AND NORTHERN IDAHO. MORE
SUPPORT IS ALSO PRESENT IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS FROM BEAR LAKE TO
PALISADES RESERVOIR. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM MODELS SUPPORT A LIMITED
SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING NORTH FROM EASTERN NEVADA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. EARLY MORNING TIMING OF OF A DISTURBANCE CROSSING
CALIFORNIA TO IDAHO COULD BE A SET UP FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND
LIGHTNING TO DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE IN THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY.
ACTIVITY THEN EXPANDS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BY SUNDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING WHICH
SHOULD FOCUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL...EASTERN
AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. THE GFS MODEL IN PARTICULAR BRINGS YET
ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE TO IDAHO ON MONDAY. THEN MORE
ZONAL FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RS

&&

.AVIATION...MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED. WE WILL SEE DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT VFR WEATHER EXCEPT WITH STRONGER STORMS WHERE
THE POTENTIAL FOR REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  KEYES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE CAN EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ACROSS THE REGION. WE SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE VERY
CLOSE TO SEEING SCATTERED STORMS IN SOME MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. FOR
NOW...THAT WILL KEEP US OUT OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR AREAS
CURRENTLY WITH CRITICAL FUELS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY INDEED SEE
HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS AREAWIDE DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MONSOON MOISTURE AND A COUPLE OF STRONGER DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH. WE MAY NEED RED FLAG HEADLINES FOR ONE OR BOTH DAYS BASED
ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREATS. DUE TO THE NATURE OF THIS PATTERN...WE ARE STILL
DEALING WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY DAILY AS THE MODELS TEND TO NOT PICK
UP SOME DETAILS UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE AN EVENT BEGINS.  KEYES

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 310847
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
247 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE STILL OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO TODAY AND EXPECT
MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE BRUNT OF ACTIVITY SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE SLIDES
EAST TOMORROW. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT
BIGGEST THREAT TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOODING. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLOODING HOWEVER.  WEAK FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD CREATE VERY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
GK

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT THE MOIST PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. SOME WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MAY DRY THINGS OUT A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS...BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH
AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 310847
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
247 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE STILL OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO TODAY AND EXPECT
MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE BRUNT OF ACTIVITY SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE SLIDES
EAST TOMORROW. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT
BIGGEST THREAT TO BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOODING. DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD FLOODING HOWEVER.  WEAK FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD CREATE VERY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY.
GK

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
EXPECT THE MOIST PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. SOME WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MAY DRY THINGS OUT A BIT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS...BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH
AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY ERRATIC
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

VALLE

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 301934
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
134 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE 500 MB LEVEL LOOKS TO RESEMBLE A BROAD UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WITH AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ISOLATED
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE REACHES
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND STANLEY. THIS AREA ALSO HAS THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR LIGHTING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS UNTIL 9 PM MDT. THE 700MB WIND FIELD IS BROKEN INTO TWO
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS...ONE OVER MONTANA AND THE OTHER
OVER EASTERN OREGON. AXIS OF CONTRACTION LOOKS LIKE IT LIES ALONG
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS. BOTH OF THOSE AREAS
SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
THURSDAY...THE 700MB CIRCULATION OVER OREGON MOVES OVER NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH STILL LEAVES SOME ELEMENT OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT
AND/OR MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM MONIDA PASS BACK TOWARDS MACKAY
AND STANLEY AREA...AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THE NORTHERLY
MID LEVEL WINDS MAY MOVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE ARCO
DESERT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS MODEL HINTS AT A
SLIGHT CONTRIBUTION OF MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE HERNAN GETTING CAUGHT IN FLOW OVER CENTRAL IDAHO.
LOOKS LIKE A MINIMAL HIGH LEVEL CONTRIBUTION THAT DOES NOT REALLY
BOOST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MUCH.

.LONG TERM...A DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC CROSSES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN FRIDAY THAT SHOULD BOOST AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY A
BIT. THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON
MOISTURE AROUND MONDAY. OTHERWISE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. RS

&&

.AVIATION...MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS...BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EP

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
EACH AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
EP

&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ422-475-476.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 301934
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
134 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE 500 MB LEVEL LOOKS TO RESEMBLE A BROAD UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WITH AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING FROM THE IDAHO
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WHERE ISOLATED
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED. SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE REACHES
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AROUND STANLEY. THIS AREA ALSO HAS THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR LIGHTING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS UNTIL 9 PM MDT. THE 700MB WIND FIELD IS BROKEN INTO TWO
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS...ONE OVER MONTANA AND THE OTHER
OVER EASTERN OREGON. AXIS OF CONTRACTION LOOKS LIKE IT LIES ALONG
THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS. BOTH OF THOSE AREAS
SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
THURSDAY...THE 700MB CIRCULATION OVER OREGON MOVES OVER NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO WHICH STILL LEAVES SOME ELEMENT OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT
AND/OR MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM MONIDA PASS BACK TOWARDS MACKAY
AND STANLEY AREA...AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THE NORTHERLY
MID LEVEL WINDS MAY MOVE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE ARCO
DESERT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS MODEL HINTS AT A
SLIGHT CONTRIBUTION OF MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE HERNAN GETTING CAUGHT IN FLOW OVER CENTRAL IDAHO.
LOOKS LIKE A MINIMAL HIGH LEVEL CONTRIBUTION THAT DOES NOT REALLY
BOOST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MUCH.

.LONG TERM...A DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC CROSSES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN FRIDAY THAT SHOULD BOOST AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY A
BIT. THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOON
MOISTURE AROUND MONDAY. OTHERWISE THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. RS

&&

.AVIATION...MONSOON MOISTURE REMAINS...BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EP

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
EACH AFTERNOON. HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
EP

&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ422-475-476.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 300833
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
233 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXTENSIVE MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WORK NORTH INTO REGION
UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MODELS FOCUS MOST OF PRECIPITATION AND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY WHERE BEST
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT. MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH THE ELEVATED HUMIDITY CONTINUING WITH THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING DAILY. LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE
ELEVATED DEW POINTS.
GK

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS KEEP MONSOONAL FLOW INTACT THROUGH
MONDAY. THE EUROPEAN MODEL DRIVES THROUGH TROF MONDAY AND CUTS OFF
PRECIPITATION QUICKER THAN GFS MODEL DOES. FOR NOW KEPT IN SOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ON GRIDS.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE LIKELY EXCEPT
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE HEAVY RAIN...REDUCED VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

VALLE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MOST
NOTABLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. LIGHTNING ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS IS POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

VALLE

&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
IDZ422-475-476.

&&

$$








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