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000
FXUS65 KPIH 220851
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
251 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS STAYING OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS FOR THE MOST PART. ISOLD TSTMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN THIS AFTN. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. LINGERING MOISTURE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL
AMPLIFY ON WED AD AN UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. ISOLD
TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS WED AFTN AND
EVE DUE TO PAC MOISTURE BROUGHT IN BY THE UPPER LOW. TEMPS CLIMB
BACK UP ON WED DUE TO THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO ALBERTA ON THURSDAY...TAKING ANY THREAT OF
PRECIP ALONG WITH. A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THRU THURSDAY
MORNING...CREATING WINDY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPS THU AND FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS PUSHED COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL MTN BASINS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO THE LOWER 30S FRI MORN...AND INTO THE 40S IN MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK UP OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK UP AS WELL. THE GFS IS
HINTING AT MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINNING TO FLOW BACK INTO ID ON MON
AND TUE...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FCST DRY. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...A DRIER SW FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE SE HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH VFR SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ANTICIPATED AT THE
KBYI KPIH AND KIDA TERMINALS. A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDING FROM A SHALLOW LOW OFF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LIFT
NE THROUGH THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS TODAY HELPING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT REGION POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE KSUN TERMINAL. THE REMAINS OF THE LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST LIFT THROUGH ERN OREGON OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING
ONGOING NOCTURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CNTRL
MOUNTAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE
NORTH OF KSUN WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ANTICIPATED ON THE TERMINAL.
HUSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A DEEP
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
WITH A SHALLOW SUB-TROPICAL LOW POSITIONED OFF SRN CALIFORNIA AND AN
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME LIFTING NE ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND WRN
NEVADA. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE LIFTING NE
THROUGH CNTRL IDAHO TODAY SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE SE
DISTRICTS...A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WORK
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESSING ANY
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THAT REGION. ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE
REMAINS OF THE SHALLOW LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST LIFT NE THROUGH
THE REGION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...A
DRIER SW FLOW WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DEEP LOW NOW
POSITIONED NEAR PORTLAND. THIS LOW EJECTS NE THROUGH WASHINGTON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO CANADA THURSDAY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED DRY
SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO/THROUGH SE IDAHO. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BEGIN TO RAMP UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING FRONT WITH NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A SOLID RED FLAG WIND/LOW HUMIDITY EVENT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AS THE FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE
REGION...THUS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE POSTED WITH THE MORNING
FORECAST PACKAGE. STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND...THE 4-CORNERS HIGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD ACROSS SRN IDAHO WITH
HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT LIFTING NORTH AROUND THE
WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...OPENING THE DOOR TO INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HUSTON

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING IDZ410-425.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING IDZ422-427.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 220851
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
251 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE SHOWERS AND
TSTMS STAYING OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS FOR THE MOST PART. ISOLD TSTMS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN THIS AFTN. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY. LINGERING MOISTURE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL
AMPLIFY ON WED AD AN UPPER CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE PAC NW. ISOLD
TSTMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS WED AFTN AND
EVE DUE TO PAC MOISTURE BROUGHT IN BY THE UPPER LOW. TEMPS CLIMB
BACK UP ON WED DUE TO THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO ALBERTA ON THURSDAY...TAKING ANY THREAT OF
PRECIP ALONG WITH. A DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THRU THURSDAY
MORNING...CREATING WINDY CONDITIONS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPS THU AND FRI AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS PUSHED COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL MTN BASINS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL TO THE LOWER 30S FRI MORN...AND INTO THE 40S IN MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK UP OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL PUSH TEMPS BACK UP AS WELL. THE GFS IS
HINTING AT MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINNING TO FLOW BACK INTO ID ON MON
AND TUE...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FCST DRY. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...A DRIER SW FLOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE SE HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH VFR SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ANTICIPATED AT THE
KBYI KPIH AND KIDA TERMINALS. A SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDING FROM A SHALLOW LOW OFF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL LIFT
NE THROUGH THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS TODAY HELPING TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT REGION POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE KSUN TERMINAL. THE REMAINS OF THE LOW OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST LIFT THROUGH ERN OREGON OVERNIGHT SUPPORTING
ONGOING NOCTURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CNTRL
MOUNTAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE
NORTH OF KSUN WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ANTICIPATED ON THE TERMINAL.
HUSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A DEEP
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST
WITH A SHALLOW SUB-TROPICAL LOW POSITIONED OFF SRN CALIFORNIA AND AN
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME LIFTING NE ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND WRN
NEVADA. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE LIFTING NE
THROUGH CNTRL IDAHO TODAY SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE SE
DISTRICTS...A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WORK
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESSING ANY
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THAT REGION. ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS THE
REMAINS OF THE SHALLOW LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST LIFT NE THROUGH
THE REGION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...A
DRIER SW FLOW WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DEEP LOW NOW
POSITIONED NEAR PORTLAND. THIS LOW EJECTS NE THROUGH WASHINGTON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO CANADA THURSDAY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED DRY
SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO/THROUGH SE IDAHO. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BEGIN TO RAMP UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING FRONT WITH NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. A SOLID RED FLAG WIND/LOW HUMIDITY EVENT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AS THE FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE
REGION...THUS A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE POSTED WITH THE MORNING
FORECAST PACKAGE. STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND...THE 4-CORNERS HIGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD ACROSS SRN IDAHO WITH
HOTTER TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA BY SUNDAY. BY
MONDAY...SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT LIFTING NORTH AROUND THE
WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...OPENING THE DOOR TO INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HUSTON

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING IDZ410-425.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING IDZ422-427.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 212057
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
256 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...BAND OF MONSOON MOISTURE CAUGHT UP IN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE AREA IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE AND MODERATE SHEAR VALUES ARE
SUPPORTING SOME STRONG CELLS CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. BUT OVERALL...THINK THAT HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN
THREAT. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT WEAKEN
AND DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET. FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY BY
TUESDAY...PUSHING BAND OF MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH...SO THAT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS.

PACIFIC LOW WILL PUSH INLAND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS BRINGS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINDS. BEYOND THAT...DRY AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK
NORTHWARD BY EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
EVENTUALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MONSOON MOISTURE TO RETURN.
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN...AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. ON
TUESDAY...MOISTURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WITH THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS AROUND KSUN AND NORTHWARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUING RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 422 425 427
AND 410 THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
OF THESE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...BUT ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH COULD DEFINITELY CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS AND ERRATIC
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THUNDERSTORM THREAT MOVES SLIGHTLY NORTH ON
TUESDAY...AND SHOULD FAVOR UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR IDAHO FIRE ZONES 410 422
425 AND 427.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 212057
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
256 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...BAND OF MONSOON MOISTURE CAUGHT UP IN SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE AREA IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE AND MODERATE SHEAR VALUES ARE
SUPPORTING SOME STRONG CELLS CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. BUT OVERALL...THINK THAT HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN
THREAT. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...BUT WEAKEN
AND DIE OUT AFTER SUNSET. FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY BY
TUESDAY...PUSHING BAND OF MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH...SO THAT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS.

PACIFIC LOW WILL PUSH INLAND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS BRINGS
DRIER AND COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT WINDS. BEYOND THAT...DRY AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK
NORTHWARD BY EARLY IN THE WEEK...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
EVENTUALLY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MONSOON MOISTURE TO RETURN.
&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN...AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. ON
TUESDAY...MOISTURE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WITH THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT MOSTLY CONFINED TO AREAS AROUND KSUN AND NORTHWARD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUING RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 422 425 427
AND 410 THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
OF THESE PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...BUT ABUNDANT LIGHTNING AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH COULD DEFINITELY CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS AND ERRATIC
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THUNDERSTORM THREAT MOVES SLIGHTLY NORTH ON
TUESDAY...AND SHOULD FAVOR UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR IDAHO FIRE ZONES 410 422
425 AND 427.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 210819
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
219 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE IS STREAMING
UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO ID TODAY. THIS IS
RESULTING IN SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS THIS MORNING...AND THESE
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN AS THE AIRMASS HEATS UP. SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...
AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE INTO THE EVE HOURS. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES TODAY WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL MTNS THRU THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. ON TUE...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHING
THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PUSH THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE NORTH...
LIMITING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO SCT COVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL MTNS...
WITH ISOLD COVERAGE OVER THE ADJACENT SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. TEMPS
WILL BE RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVERR...BUT WILL WARM UP AGAIN ON TUE WITH THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...WED THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE PAC NW COAST ON WED...AND THEN MOVE NE INTO ALBERTA ON
THU. THIS WILL FORCE THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST...AND WITH IT THE
MONSOON FLOW. SOME MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER LOW...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO SET OFF ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE CENTRAL
MTNS WED AFTN AND EVE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU THROUGH
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON THU UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH SOME COLD TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL MTNS FRI
MORN. TEMPS WARM BACK UP ON FRI AND THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS SE IDAHO THIS
MORNING UNDER A MOIST SUB-TROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE. NUMERICAL
MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TEMPORARILY IMPACTING TERMINALS.
PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNSET. HUSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A FETCH
OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING NE ACROSS SRN IDAHO WITH NUMEROUS
LIGHT SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR. MODELS GENERALLY SHOWING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RESIDES ACROSS THE
CNTRL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WHERE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT IS BEING
PROVIDED BY AN EJECTING DISTURBANCE ROTATING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER AHEAD OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WAS DRIFTING SOUTH
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE BACK EDGE
OF THE INITIAL MONSOONAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHERN
BORDER ALLOWING MAXIMUM HEATING ACROSS NE NEVADA INTO THE SRN
HIGHLANDS. BELIEVE THE FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
WILL THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE SRN HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVE WHILE
ONGOING SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER FURTHER NORTH MAY ACTUALLY INHIBIT
ACTIVITY. THUS RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY CONTINUE FOR
ZONES 410 422 425 AND 427 THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH ONE MODEL WAS SHOWING
A DISTURBANCE LIFTING RAPIDLY NE THROUGH ERN OREGON INTO THE
PANHANDLE WHICH MAY CLIP THE SAWTOOTH/SALMON DISTRICTS LATE TONIGHT
SUPPORTING ONGOING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE LOW DRIFTING DOWN THE CANADIAN COAST SETTLES INTO
THE NW COASTAL WATERS MAINTAINING THE MOIST SW FETCH OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS WHILE A DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO FILTER
INTO THE CARIBOU HIGHLANDS. THUS...DEPENDING ON FORECAST
CHANGES...EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE IN ZONE 422 TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE LOW BEGINS TO EDGE INTO THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST
WITH A DRIER/STRONGER SW FLOW ADVANCING ACROSS SE IDAHO. THE THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED TO THE SALMON/CHALLIS
DISTRICT WHILE INCREASING WINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW ACCELERATES EAST THROUGH CANADA WHILE
AN ASSOCIATED DRY PAC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS SE IDAHO PRODUCING
ANOTHER RED FLAG WIND/LOW HUMIDITY EVENT FOR SE IDAHO. THE 4-CORNERS
HIGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO HOTTER
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. HUSTON

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ410.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ427.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ422.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
IDZ425.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 210819
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
219 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE IS STREAMING
UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE INTO ID TODAY. THIS IS
RESULTING IN SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS THIS MORNING...AND THESE
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN AS THE AIRMASS HEATS UP. SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE PRODUCED GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING...
AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE INTO THE EVE HOURS. BEST
PRECIP CHANCES TODAY WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL MTNS THRU THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. ON TUE...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES IS
EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPPER LOW APPROACHING
THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PUSH THE MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE NORTH...
LIMITING SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO SCT COVERAGE IN THE CENTRAL MTNS...
WITH ISOLD COVERAGE OVER THE ADJACENT SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. TEMPS
WILL BE RUNNING A LITTLE COOLER TODAY WITH THE SHOWERS AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVERR...BUT WILL WARM UP AGAIN ON TUE WITH THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...WED THROUGH MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE PAC NW COAST ON WED...AND THEN MOVE NE INTO ALBERTA ON
THU. THIS WILL FORCE THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST...AND WITH IT THE
MONSOON FLOW. SOME MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE UPPER LOW...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO SET OFF ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE CENTRAL
MTNS WED AFTN AND EVE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU THROUGH
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON THU UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH SOME COLD TEMPS IN THE CENTRAL MTNS FRI
MORN. TEMPS WARM BACK UP ON FRI AND THRU THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. HEDGES

&&

.AVIATION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED ACROSS SE IDAHO THIS
MORNING UNDER A MOIST SUB-TROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE. NUMERICAL
MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT VFR MID-LEVEL CIGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TEMPORARILY IMPACTING TERMINALS.
PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNSET. HUSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A FETCH
OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING NE ACROSS SRN IDAHO WITH NUMEROUS
LIGHT SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR. MODELS GENERALLY SHOWING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RESIDES ACROSS THE
CNTRL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WHERE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT IS BEING
PROVIDED BY AN EJECTING DISTURBANCE ROTATING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER AHEAD OF A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WAS DRIFTING SOUTH
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE BACK EDGE
OF THE INITIAL MONSOONAL CLOUD COVER SHOULD CLEAR THE SOUTHERN
BORDER ALLOWING MAXIMUM HEATING ACROSS NE NEVADA INTO THE SRN
HIGHLANDS. BELIEVE THE FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
WILL THEN SHIFT ACROSS THE SRN HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON/EVE WHILE
ONGOING SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER FURTHER NORTH MAY ACTUALLY INHIBIT
ACTIVITY. THUS RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY CONTINUE FOR
ZONES 410 422 425 AND 427 THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH ONE MODEL WAS SHOWING
A DISTURBANCE LIFTING RAPIDLY NE THROUGH ERN OREGON INTO THE
PANHANDLE WHICH MAY CLIP THE SAWTOOTH/SALMON DISTRICTS LATE TONIGHT
SUPPORTING ONGOING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE LOW DRIFTING DOWN THE CANADIAN COAST SETTLES INTO
THE NW COASTAL WATERS MAINTAINING THE MOIST SW FETCH OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS WHILE A DRIER AIR MASS BEGINS TO FILTER
INTO THE CARIBOU HIGHLANDS. THUS...DEPENDING ON FORECAST
CHANGES...EXPECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE IN ZONE 422 TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE LOW BEGINS TO EDGE INTO THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST
WITH A DRIER/STRONGER SW FLOW ADVANCING ACROSS SE IDAHO. THE THREAT
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED TO THE SALMON/CHALLIS
DISTRICT WHILE INCREASING WINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE SNAKE RIVER
PLAIN. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW ACCELERATES EAST THROUGH CANADA WHILE
AN ASSOCIATED DRY PAC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS SE IDAHO PRODUCING
ANOTHER RED FLAG WIND/LOW HUMIDITY EVENT FOR SE IDAHO. THE 4-CORNERS
HIGH EXPANDS NORTHWARD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A RETURN TO HOTTER
CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND. HUSTON

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ410.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ427.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ422.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
IDZ425.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 201958
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
158 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...MONSOON PUSH STARTING TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO
IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF LOW SPINNING IN NEVADA/CALIFORNIA.
INITIAL CLOUD SURGE AT NORTH END OF LOW HAS PUSHED INTO AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATES 84/86 WITH RADAR INDICATING WEAK
RETURNS MAINLY AS A RESULT OF MID LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS DECK. STILL
A POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT SOUTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT BEST DEVELOPMENT SURGES NORTH THROUGH FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INLAND INTO
THE PACNW. PWAT LEVELS INCREASE TO AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS MOST OF
EAST IDAHO BY LATE EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THREAT OF 40-50
MPH WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING BUT SHEAR INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY MID LEVELS FOR CONTINUED THREAT OF STRONGER
GUSTS. PACIFIC SHORTWAVE CROSSES PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY LEAVING TAIL OF SHORTWAVE DRAPED INTO EAST IDAHO. HIGH PWAT
VALUES PERSIST INTO TUESDAY WITH STRONG MU- CAPE ESPECIALLY EARLY.
CONCERN THAT CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT/EARLY STORMS COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY BUT THREAT STILL ENOUGH FOR STRONG WINDS AND OF COURSE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MOVEMENT OF STORMS SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH TO
LIMIT SLOW- MOVERS AND THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING SO WILL FOREGO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. THREAT WILL REMAIN GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES CENTRAL ROCKIES/4 CORNERS REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE STREAM PUSHES SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST WITH FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION SHIFTING TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND DIVIDE. DRY
SLOT PUSHES INTO REMAINDER OF REGION BUT SMALL SLIVER OF MONSOON
FLOW EXTENDS INTO SOUTHEAST CORNER AROUND THE HIGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE LEFT POPS DRY IN THIS REGION FOR NOW BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 90S MOST AREAS WITH
STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW. PACIFIC LOW PUSHES INLAND WEDNESDAY AND
CROSSES INTO ALBERTA EARLY THURSDAY. TRAJECTORY OF LOW PULLS MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION BUT ALSO DROPS COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY. UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WEST TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY
SEASONABLE TEMPS. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
BUT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH
VCTS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF SITES TO BE 12Z MONDAY
THROUGH 21Z MONDAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AROUND 50 MPH AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.
EP


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING
INTO THE AREA TODAY VIA A SUBTROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL
NEVADA. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IDAHO THIS EVENING...THEN SPREADING
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE PRESENT...BUT SOME STORMS MAY BECOME CLOSE TO
SEVERE AND PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 50
MPH. DESPITE MIN RH VALUES MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND 40S ON MONDAY...THE
THREAT OF NEW FIRE STARTS AND RAPID FIRE GROWTH REMAINS...AND IS
CONFIRMED THROUGH COORDINATION WITH AFFECTED PARTNERS.
THEREFORE...HAVE EXTENDED THE AREA AND TIME OF CURRENT RED FLAG
WARNING. THE RED FLAG WARNING NOW INCLUDES ZONES 422 425 427 AND 410
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH 9 PM
MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AS SE ID TRANSITIONS INTO A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW THAT WILL FAVOR UPSLOPE AREAS. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
EP


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY IDZ410.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY IDZ427.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY
IDZ422.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY IDZ425.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KPIH 201958
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
158 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...MONSOON PUSH STARTING TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTH INTO
IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF LOW SPINNING IN NEVADA/CALIFORNIA.
INITIAL CLOUD SURGE AT NORTH END OF LOW HAS PUSHED INTO AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATES 84/86 WITH RADAR INDICATING WEAK
RETURNS MAINLY AS A RESULT OF MID LEVEL STRATO-CUMULUS DECK. STILL
A POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT SOUTH HALF OF FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT BEST DEVELOPMENT SURGES NORTH THROUGH FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES INLAND INTO
THE PACNW. PWAT LEVELS INCREASE TO AROUND ONE INCH ACROSS MOST OF
EAST IDAHO BY LATE EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THREAT OF 40-50
MPH WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING BUT SHEAR INCREASES OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY MID LEVELS FOR CONTINUED THREAT OF STRONGER
GUSTS. PACIFIC SHORTWAVE CROSSES PANHANDLE INTO NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY LEAVING TAIL OF SHORTWAVE DRAPED INTO EAST IDAHO. HIGH PWAT
VALUES PERSIST INTO TUESDAY WITH STRONG MU- CAPE ESPECIALLY EARLY.
CONCERN THAT CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT/EARLY STORMS COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY BUT THREAT STILL ENOUGH FOR STRONG WINDS AND OF COURSE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MOVEMENT OF STORMS SHOULD BE QUICK ENOUGH TO
LIMIT SLOW- MOVERS AND THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING SO WILL FOREGO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW. THREAT WILL REMAIN GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN.

RIDGE AMPLIFIES CENTRAL ROCKIES/4 CORNERS REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE STREAM PUSHES SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST WITH FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION SHIFTING TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND DIVIDE. DRY
SLOT PUSHES INTO REMAINDER OF REGION BUT SMALL SLIVER OF MONSOON
FLOW EXTENDS INTO SOUTHEAST CORNER AROUND THE HIGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HAVE LEFT POPS DRY IN THIS REGION FOR NOW BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON. TEMPS REBOUND INTO THE 90S MOST AREAS WITH
STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW. PACIFIC LOW PUSHES INLAND WEDNESDAY AND
CROSSES INTO ALBERTA EARLY THURSDAY. TRAJECTORY OF LOW PULLS MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION BUT ALSO DROPS COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY. UPPER HIGH SHIFTS WEST TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY
SEASONABLE TEMPS. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
BUT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH
VCTS BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE
BIGGEST THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT TAF SITES TO BE 12Z MONDAY
THROUGH 21Z MONDAY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AROUND 50 MPH AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.
EP


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING MONSOON MOISTURE MOVING
INTO THE AREA TODAY VIA A SUBTROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL
NEVADA. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IDAHO THIS EVENING...THEN SPREADING
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE PRESENT...BUT SOME STORMS MAY BECOME CLOSE TO
SEVERE AND PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 50
MPH. DESPITE MIN RH VALUES MOSTLY IN THE 30S AND 40S ON MONDAY...THE
THREAT OF NEW FIRE STARTS AND RAPID FIRE GROWTH REMAINS...AND IS
CONFIRMED THROUGH COORDINATION WITH AFFECTED PARTNERS.
THEREFORE...HAVE EXTENDED THE AREA AND TIME OF CURRENT RED FLAG
WARNING. THE RED FLAG WARNING NOW INCLUDES ZONES 422 425 427 AND 410
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH 9 PM
MONDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AS SE ID TRANSITIONS INTO A MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW THAT WILL FAVOR UPSLOPE AREAS. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
EP


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY IDZ410.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY IDZ427.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY
IDZ422.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY IDZ425.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 200900
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
300 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
FINALLY SURGE INTO EASTERN IDAHO TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME
WET WEATHER TO OUR REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN FOR
THE MOST PART. A STRAY STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE ELSEWHERE...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SNAKE PLAIN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS OVER 45MPH ARE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER
ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN SHIFTING TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
DARK. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES
BUT NOTHING THAT WILL CAUSE ANY IMPACTS OF NOTE. THE PATTERN FOR
TOMORROW IS A BIT COMPLEX. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE MAIN BAND
OF RAIN SIT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS. THESE AREAS WILL SEE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN IN THE
MORNING...WHILE FARTHER SOUTH ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED.
THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST TOMORROW WILL BE WHERE WE SEE
ENOUGH CLOUD BREAKS AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. RIGHT NOW...WE
THINK THAT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER THAT
STORMS WILL ISOLATED AND EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN RAIN AREA. ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA...WE ARE FORECASTING BETTER INSTABILITY DUE
TO MORE SUNSHINE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO RAPIDLY
FIRE OFF CLOSER TO NOON AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND
PROBABLY SOME HAIL. WE WILL BE MONITORING THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT...BUT FOR NOW WE DON`T THINK A WATCH IS NECESSARY. WE WILL
ALSO BE LOOKING AT STRONG STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SEVERE ONES AS WELL. WITH MORE CLOUD AND STORM
COVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER...10-15 DEGREES COOLER
IN MOST INSTANCES. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE DIVIDE...WHILE
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FORM THE SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY REBOUND ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING. KEYES



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE LOW
OFFSHORE WILL FINALLY SCOOT OFF INTO CANADA. THIS WILL TURN THE
FLOW PATTERN BACK TO THE WEST AND PULL IN MUCH DRIER AIR...MUCH
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS WILL INITIALLY
COOL THINGS OFF FOR MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE REGION AFTER THAT WE WILL SEE A WARMUP. WITH THE DRY
AIR MOVING IN...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT SOME WILD SWINGS BETWEEN
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.  KEYES


&&

.AVIATION...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A MODERATELY
STRONG PAC JET PUNCHING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE
FURTHER SOUTH...A WELL DEFINED SUB-TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOTED LIFTING
NORTH INTO SRN NEVADA. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE DRY WEST FLOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION GIVING WAY TO A MOIST SUB-TROPICAL PUSH
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK
NORTH INTO THE SRN HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE MONSOON FLOW POSSIBLY SPILLING INTO THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/CNTRL
MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTN. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE VFR
MID-LEVEL CIGS PREVAIL AFTER THE ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HUSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A
MODERATELY STRONG PAC JET PUNCHING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
WHILE FURTHER SOUTH...A WELL DEFINED SUB-TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOTED
LIFTING NORTH INTO SRN NEVADA. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE DRY
WEST FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION GIVING WAY TO A MOIST
SUB-TROPICAL PUSH FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MONSOON PUSH AND A RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES FOR THAT REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD START OUT DRY BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY
WETTER THIS EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY VERY WELL SPILL INTO THE SNAKE
PLAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND THE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED TO FIRE WEATHER ZONES 425 AND 410. A RED FLAG WARNING ALSO
CONTINUES FOR THE CNTRL MOUNTAIN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 422 WHICH WAS
ORIGINALLY BASED UPON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MIXED IN THIS REGARD THIS MORNING...AND A
COMBINATION OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE COUPLED WITH
LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE WARNING IN THAT REGION. WIDESPREAD FAIRLY
WET THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY
WITH MOISTURE LEVELS SUPPORTING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AND MINIMUM
HUMIDITY GENERALLY NOT DROPPING LOWER THAN 25-30 PERCENT IN MOST
AREAS. THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE NW COASTAL WATERS. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE LOW EJECTS
NE INTO CANADA AND A DRY PAC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER RED FLAG EVENT FOR STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. HUSTON


&&

.AIR STAGNATION...WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO POSE A PROBLEM
ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO...BOTH FROM FIRES IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND TO OUR NORTHWEST. BASED ON SMOKE FORECASTS...IT APPEARS MOST
OF THE SMOKE HERE HAS ACTUALLY BECOMING FROM OREGON WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION TO THE BIG FIRES IN WASHINGTON. AN AIR QUALITY ALERT
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR BLAINE...CASSIA...LINCOLN AND MINIDOKA
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SOME RELIEF IS HOPEFULLY COMING IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. IF ENOUGH FALLS...IT WOULD HELP CLEAR OUT THE AIR. WITH THE
WIND PATTERN ALSO SHIFTING MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...THAT MAY ALSO SEND SMOKE MORE TOWARD MONTANA AND
NORTHERN IDAHO. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY
IDZ427.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY
IDZ422.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 200900
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
300 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
FINALLY SURGE INTO EASTERN IDAHO TODAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING SOME
WET WEATHER TO OUR REGION THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.
STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE SNAKE PLAIN FOR
THE MOST PART. A STRAY STORM OR TWO COULD FIRE ELSEWHERE...MAINLY ACROSS
THE SNAKE PLAIN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY
WINDS OVER 45MPH ARE POSSIBLE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD OVER
ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT...WITH THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN SHIFTING TO THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
DARK. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES
BUT NOTHING THAT WILL CAUSE ANY IMPACTS OF NOTE. THE PATTERN FOR
TOMORROW IS A BIT COMPLEX. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE THE MAIN BAND
OF RAIN SIT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS. THESE AREAS WILL SEE A GENTLE SOAKING RAIN IN THE
MORNING...WHILE FARTHER SOUTH ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED.
THE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST TOMORROW WILL BE WHERE WE SEE
ENOUGH CLOUD BREAKS AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. RIGHT NOW...WE
THINK THAT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER THAT
STORMS WILL ISOLATED AND EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN RAIN AREA. ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA...WE ARE FORECASTING BETTER INSTABILITY DUE
TO MORE SUNSHINE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO RAPIDLY
FIRE OFF CLOSER TO NOON AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND
PROBABLY SOME HAIL. WE WILL BE MONITORING THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT...BUT FOR NOW WE DON`T THINK A WATCH IS NECESSARY. WE WILL
ALSO BE LOOKING AT STRONG STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SEVERE ONES AS WELL. WITH MORE CLOUD AND STORM
COVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER...10-15 DEGREES COOLER
IN MOST INSTANCES. FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE DIVIDE...WHILE
DRIER AIR WORKS IN FORM THE SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY REBOUND ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURNING. KEYES



.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE LOW
OFFSHORE WILL FINALLY SCOOT OFF INTO CANADA. THIS WILL TURN THE
FLOW PATTERN BACK TO THE WEST AND PULL IN MUCH DRIER AIR...MUCH
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS WILL INITIALLY
COOL THINGS OFF FOR MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE REGION AFTER THAT WE WILL SEE A WARMUP. WITH THE DRY
AIR MOVING IN...WE WILL BE LOOKING AT SOME WILD SWINGS BETWEEN
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.  KEYES


&&

.AVIATION...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A MODERATELY
STRONG PAC JET PUNCHING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WHILE
FURTHER SOUTH...A WELL DEFINED SUB-TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOTED LIFTING
NORTH INTO SRN NEVADA. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE DRY WEST FLOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION GIVING WAY TO A MOIST SUB-TROPICAL PUSH
FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK
NORTH INTO THE SRN HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE MONSOON FLOW POSSIBLY SPILLING INTO THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/CNTRL
MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTN. THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE VFR
MID-LEVEL CIGS PREVAIL AFTER THE ONSET OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
HUSTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A
MODERATELY STRONG PAC JET PUNCHING EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
WHILE FURTHER SOUTH...A WELL DEFINED SUB-TROPICAL WAVE WAS NOTED
LIFTING NORTH INTO SRN NEVADA. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE DRY
WEST FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION GIVING WAY TO A MOIST
SUB-TROPICAL PUSH FROM THE SOUTH BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MONSOON PUSH AND A RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES FOR THAT REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD START OUT DRY BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY
WETTER THIS EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY VERY WELL SPILL INTO THE SNAKE
PLAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND THE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED TO FIRE WEATHER ZONES 425 AND 410. A RED FLAG WARNING ALSO
CONTINUES FOR THE CNTRL MOUNTAIN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 422 WHICH WAS
ORIGINALLY BASED UPON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT MIXED IN THIS REGARD THIS MORNING...AND A
COMBINATION OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE COUPLED WITH
LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
THE CONTINUATION OF THE WARNING IN THAT REGION. WIDESPREAD FAIRLY
WET THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY
WITH MOISTURE LEVELS SUPPORTING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AND MINIMUM
HUMIDITY GENERALLY NOT DROPPING LOWER THAN 25-30 PERCENT IN MOST
AREAS. THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY AS A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE NW COASTAL WATERS. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE LOW EJECTS
NE INTO CANADA AND A DRY PAC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING ANOTHER RED FLAG EVENT FOR STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY TO THE REGION. HUSTON


&&

.AIR STAGNATION...WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO POSE A PROBLEM
ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO...BOTH FROM FIRES IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND TO OUR NORTHWEST. BASED ON SMOKE FORECASTS...IT APPEARS MOST
OF THE SMOKE HERE HAS ACTUALLY BECOMING FROM OREGON WITH SOME
CONTRIBUTION TO THE BIG FIRES IN WASHINGTON. AN AIR QUALITY ALERT
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR BLAINE...CASSIA...LINCOLN AND MINIDOKA
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SOME RELIEF IS HOPEFULLY COMING IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. IF ENOUGH FALLS...IT WOULD HELP CLEAR OUT THE AIR. WITH THE
WIND PATTERN ALSO SHIFTING MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...THAT MAY ALSO SEND SMOKE MORE TOWARD MONTANA AND
NORTHERN IDAHO. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY
IDZ427.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY
IDZ422.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 191946
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
146 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND OPEN THE DOOR TO MONSOON MOISTURE WHICH
HAS BEEN LURKING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SLIDE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL SPREAD
NORTH TO A LINE FROM SUN VALLEY TO IDAHO FALLS BY MID DAY. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO FIRE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...INITIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TO COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING SHOULD
ALLOW SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS MONSOON MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE RESIDUAL HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WHICH COULD CAP INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WA COAST ON TUESDAY TURNS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AND DRAWS REMAINING MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUM NORTHWARD. THIS SHIFTS THE AREA OF CONCERN FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER LOW TRACKS INLAND
AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO ALBERTA ON THURSDAY AND DRAWS MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH. FLOW
REGIME OVER IDAHO RETURNS TO A DRY WESTERLY FLOW FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.  DSH

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY WIND THIS AFTERNOON BUT ALIGNS WITH MAIN RUNWAYS
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KSUN. CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AFTER
20/18Z...SO SUNDAY WILL BE A LARGE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST COMPARED
TO WHAT SAT HAS BEEN. SUNDAY SHOULD HAVE AFTERNOON -TSRA IN KSUN
KPIH AND KBYI AT LEAST IN THE VCNTY. MESSICK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL LET CURRENT RED FLAG CONTINUE AS CONDITIONS ARE
NEARLY MET IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AT LEAST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
HAS KEPT THE LAST TWO DAYS VERY DRY AND WINDY WILL RETREAT TO THE
NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING IN SOME MOIST UNSTABLE AIR AND
SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY SAT AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
LATE NIGHT SUN. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ACTIVE IN THE
SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN SAWTOOTH FOREST ZONES...THUS HAVE ISSUED RED
FLAG WARNING FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN ZONES 422 AND 427. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOUTHERN AREAS FROM REACHING CRITICAL
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION AND
PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. THUS DO NOT BELIEVE
THAT RED FLAG FOR HUMIDITY AND WIND WILL BE NECESSARY.

MON WILL SEE CONTINUE INFILTRATION OF THIS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR AND
WOULD EXPECT A GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MON AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...TO AVOID CONFUSION WILL LIMIT RED FLAGS TO NEXT 36 HOURS.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AT THE COAST WILL
KEEP THE STORM TRACK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUE...BUT THIS TROUGH PASSES TO THE WEST ON THU...BRINGING A WIND
EVENT POSSIBLY ON WED BUT AT LEAST ON THU. COOLER...DRIER...AND
CONTINUED BREEZY FOR FRI AND THE WEEKEND IN FLAT ZONAL FLOW. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ410-425.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ427.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY IDZ427.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ422.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY IDZ422.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 191946
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
146 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND OPEN THE DOOR TO MONSOON MOISTURE WHICH
HAS BEEN LURKING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
SLIDE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL SPREAD
NORTH TO A LINE FROM SUN VALLEY TO IDAHO FALLS BY MID DAY. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO FIRE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...INITIALLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TO COVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MODERATE INSTABILITY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING SHOULD
ALLOW SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL. EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WELL AS MONSOON MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
REMAIN IN PLACE. ONE LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE RESIDUAL HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WHICH COULD CAP INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WA COAST ON TUESDAY TURNS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AND DRAWS REMAINING MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUM NORTHWARD. THIS SHIFTS THE AREA OF CONCERN FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE UPPER LOW TRACKS INLAND
AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO ALBERTA ON THURSDAY AND DRAWS MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH. FLOW
REGIME OVER IDAHO RETURNS TO A DRY WESTERLY FLOW FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.  DSH

&&

.AVIATION...GUSTY WIND THIS AFTERNOON BUT ALIGNS WITH MAIN RUNWAYS
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KSUN. CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AFTER
20/18Z...SO SUNDAY WILL BE A LARGE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST COMPARED
TO WHAT SAT HAS BEEN. SUNDAY SHOULD HAVE AFTERNOON -TSRA IN KSUN
KPIH AND KBYI AT LEAST IN THE VCNTY. MESSICK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL LET CURRENT RED FLAG CONTINUE AS CONDITIONS ARE
NEARLY MET IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AT LEAST. THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
HAS KEPT THE LAST TWO DAYS VERY DRY AND WINDY WILL RETREAT TO THE
NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING IN SOME MOIST UNSTABLE AIR AND
SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY SAT AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
LATE NIGHT SUN. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ACTIVE IN THE
SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN SAWTOOTH FOREST ZONES...THUS HAVE ISSUED RED
FLAG WARNING FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN ZONES 422 AND 427. THE
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SOUTHERN AREAS FROM REACHING CRITICAL
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION AND
PREVENT STRONG WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. THUS DO NOT BELIEVE
THAT RED FLAG FOR HUMIDITY AND WIND WILL BE NECESSARY.

MON WILL SEE CONTINUE INFILTRATION OF THIS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR AND
WOULD EXPECT A GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MON AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...TO AVOID CONFUSION WILL LIMIT RED FLAGS TO NEXT 36 HOURS.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AT THE COAST WILL
KEEP THE STORM TRACK OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUE...BUT THIS TROUGH PASSES TO THE WEST ON THU...BRINGING A WIND
EVENT POSSIBLY ON WED BUT AT LEAST ON THU. COOLER...DRIER...AND
CONTINUED BREEZY FOR FRI AND THE WEEKEND IN FLAT ZONAL FLOW. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ410-425.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ427.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY IDZ427.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ422.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM MDT MONDAY IDZ422.

&&

$$









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