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000
FXUS65 KPIH 240941
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
341 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT THE CURRENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED OVER
WESTERN IDAHO WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SPILLING INTO IDAHO. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN WASHINGTON IS PUSHING
THIS RIDGE EAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL
START AROUND 7000 FEET TODAY BEFORE DROPPING TO AROUND 5000 FEET
LATE SATURDAY WHEN MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS ENDING. TODAY
EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING TO
THE UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FRIDAY EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL MOVES
OVER IDAHO. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EXPECT PRECIPITATION MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER WITH WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOST RIVER/
PAHSIMEROI MOUNTAINS. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EXPECT 5 TO 10
INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER
SNAKE HIGHLANDS. EXPECT 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET
ELSEWHERE. RAINFALL BELOW 7000 FEET WILL RANGE FROM AROUND .25 TO
.5 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. RAIN ON SNOW COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS. THE NORTHERN
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS...CARIBOU HIGHLANDS AND
BEAR LAKE REGION ARE AREAS OF INTEREST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECT THROUGH THE PERIOD...
PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY. OVERALL COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD HELP
MINIMIZE FLOODING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH BULK OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER TROUGH SPLITS
WITH BASE OF TROUGH EJECTING EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY. EAST
IDAHO CAUGHT UNDER UNSETTLED DEVELOPING RIDGE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THOUGH CHANCES OF PRECIP GRADUALLY DECLINE THROUGH THE TIME RANGE.
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES THROUGH WESTERN STATES TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND ECMWF DEVIATE BY WEDNESDAY WITH
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN RIDGE AXIS POSITIONING AND STRENGTH. MADE ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GOING FORECAST...MAINLY TO INCREASE DRYING
TREND EARLY AND TREND TOWARD GUIDANCE BLEND FOR TEMPS. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO EASTERN IDAHO DURING THE
DAY TODAY. BELIEVE PRECIP SHOULD WAIT TO REACH KSUN UNTIL CLOSE TO
SUNRISE...THEN SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS
TO LITTLE PRECIP THROUGH THE SNAKE PLAIN ESPECIALLY KPIH/KIDA. WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN VCSH MENTION AFTER 18Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR
WITH MVFR UNDER CONVECTION. SPRING WINDS CONTINUE FOR THE SNAKE
PLAIN TERMINALS WITH 20KTS SUSTAINED POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY KPIH/KIDA. DMH



&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 240249
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
850 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. QUICK UPDATE THIS
EVENING TO EXPIRE THE WIND ADVISORY WITHIN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/ERN
MAGIC VALLEY AND TO REDUCE THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
EAST LATE TONIGHT. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. HOWEVER
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVELS AS OF 19Z AND WILL
CONTINUE ADVISORY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM AROUND THE 84/86
SPLIT THROUGH POCATELLO TO IDAHO FALLS AND INTO THE ARCO DESERT.
OTHERWISE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST ON
THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 6500 FEET AND
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 7000 FEET. 1 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH IMPACTS TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS ON THURSDAY BUT PROBABLY NOT STRONG
ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY. NEXT FEW DAYS...JUST LOOKS RATHER WET.
VALLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SPLIT FLOW REMAINS
THE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 5000FT ACROSS THE MAGIC
VALLEY....6000-7500FT ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL MEAN IN SOME AREAS
POTENTIAL WATER ISSUES DUE TO RAIN ON TOP OF SNOW AND GRADUAL
SNOWMELT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A BIT LOWER SUNDAY...5500-6500FT. BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING US DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL LEND
TO KICKING IN MORE SNOWMELT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. KEYES
&&

.AVIATION...SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS THE
REGION. GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING ALL 3 VALLEY SITES SHOULD END AROUND
THAT TIME AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET UNTIL THE NEXT OF
SHOWERS ARRIVES AROUND 12Z...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO
THE REST OF THE DAY.  VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
DIP INTO MVFR WITH HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
TOMORROW BUT SHOULD BE RUNNING A BIT LOWER THAN TODAY OVERALL. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KPIH 231936
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
136 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY. HOWEVER
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO FLIRT WITH ADVISORY LEVELS AS OF 19Z AND WILL
CONTINUE ADVISORY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM AROUND THE 84/86
SPLIT THROUGH POCATELLO TO IDAHO FALLS AND INTO THE ARCO DESERT.
OTHERWISE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE COAST ON
THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ABOVE 6500 FEET AND
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 7000 FEET. 1 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH IMPACTS TO WARRANT AN
ADVISORY. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS ON THURSDAY BUT PROBABLY NOT STRONG
ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY. NEXT FEW DAYS...JUST LOOKS RATHER WET.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SPLIT FLOW REMAINS
THE PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WETTEST ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
SNOW LEVELS ON SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 5000FT ACROSS THE MAGIC
VALLEY....6000-7500FT ELSEWHERE. THIS WILL MEAN IN SOME AREAS
POTENTIAL WATER ISSUES DUE TO RAIN ON TOP OF SNOW AND GRADUAL
SNOWMELT. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE A BIT LOWER SUNDAY...5500-6500FT. BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING US DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO. MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL LEND
TO KICKING IN MORE SNOWMELT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...SOME SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS THE
REGION. GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING ALL 3 VALLEY SITES SHOULD END AROUND
THAT TIME AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET UNTIL THE NEXT OF
SHOWERS ARRIVES AROUND 12Z...SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO
THE REST OF THE DAY.  VFR WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
DIP INTO MVFR WITH HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
TOMORROW BUT SHOULD BE RUNNING A BIT LOWER THAN TODAY OVERALL.
KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ017-020-021.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KPIH 230937
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
337 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE UPPERS SNAKE HIGHLANDS AND NORTHERN CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS TODAY. EXPECT BREEZY TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH WINDS HAVE BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT MODERATE WINDS TO RETURN ACROSS THE
EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THUS...THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
CONTINUED. EXPECT SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
SHOWERS WILL RETURN BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT THERE MAY BE A SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN. CURRENTLY THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. IF A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN SETS UP OUR AREA...WE COULD SEE CONSIDERABLY LESS
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...IN THE EVENT OUR AREA SEES CONSIDERABLE
RAIN...LOOK FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF FLOODING WITH RAIN FALLING ON
SNOW. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 7500 FEET ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE DROPPING TO AROUND 6000 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY BEFORE RISING TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WYATT


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
DEVELOP THE W COAST UPPER TROF INTO A SPLIT FLOW SYSTEM ON SATURDAY
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA. THE UPPER LOW MOVES
TO SE CO BY SUN MORN...WITH A TROF EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO WA. PRECIP
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ON SAT...BUT DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT SAT NIGHT AND
SUN IN THE VALLEYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL AGAIN BE HIGH. THE UPPER TROF
BEGINS TO BE PUSHED NORTHWARD SUN NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
WEST. ONLY EXPECTING ISOLD SHOWERS NEAR THE DIVIDE ON MON AS THE
RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. THE RIDGE HOLDS THRU WED...RESULTING IN
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS. THE MODELS DO DIFFER IN THE RIDGE
PLACEMENT ON WED. THE ECM KEEPS THE RIDGE OVER THE W COAST STATES...
WHILE THE GFS MOVES IT INTO THE PLAINS STATES. EITHER SCENARIO LEADS
TO BASICALLY THE SAME OUTCOME. HEDGES


&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS OVER THE SNAKE PLAIN THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
ISOLD SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS...AND MAY SHOW UP AT KSUN
TODAY. STRONG SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVE HOURS
ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. HEDGES


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ017-020-021.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 230247
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
847 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...SECOND UPDATE THIS EVENING TO EXPIRE/CANCEL THE WIND
ADVISORY ACROSS THE SE HIGHLANDS AS OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIND SPEEDS
WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. ELSEWHERE...A MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY
EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS INL WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/ERN MAGIC VALLEY. THE LATEST NAM
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS WINDS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SNAKE
PLAIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT WHILE INCREASING ACROSS THE ERN MAGIC VALLEY
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS IN THAT REGION. NO NEW
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AS OF YET. NAM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE SNAKE PLAIN DURING DAY
WEDNESDAY. WANT TO SEE GFS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE BEFORE DROPPING
HIGHLIGHT...SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW AND ALLOW MID-SHIFT TO
REEVALUATE THE HEADLINE. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS BELOW. HUSTON

UPDATE THIS EVENING TO CLEAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM SE IDAHO
COUNTIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WIND ADVISORY STILL
VERIFYING ACROSS INL AND SELECT LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SE IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN THE NUMERICAL AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM EARLIER TODAY AS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS IT
DROPPING OFF ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY AND SE HIGHLANDS WITH A
RESURGENCE ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY MODIFICATIONS WITH THE ADVISORY UNTIL I CAN GET A
LOOK AT THE NEWER 00Z DATA. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...APPROACHING TROUGH ADVANCING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH IDAHO WITH UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES. MODELS AND SATELLITE SHOW AREA OF LIFT AND POTENTIAL
FOR RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS IN LINE WITH SPC SLIGHT RISK. AS
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THIS EVENING...SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES LEAVING
CWA WITH STRONG WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION. MUCH COOLER AND WINDY
WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW
ALBEIT LIGHT AMOUNTS DUE TO RAPID LOSS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
DITTMANN

THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS. WE WON`T TOTALLY
DRY OUT EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5500FT IN THE MORNING...RISING TO 6500-7000FT BY
AFTERNOON. BY THEN...WE WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
SOUTHEAST...BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. THIS STORM CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF SPLITTING BUT IT APPEARS WE ARE LOOKING AT A DECENT
SHOT OF MOISTURE HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS
WILL RANGE FROM 6500FT IN THE WEST TO AROUND 8000FT AROUND BEAR
LAKE. THIS MEANS...THAT WE MAY BE LOOKING AT RAIN ON TOP OF SNOW IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SOME MELTING FOR MID SLOPES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS REMAINS OVER ALL OF EASTERN IDAHO HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...WITH A DWINDLING CHANCE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BEYOND
THAT...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THE STATE...DRYING US
OUT AND ALLOWING FOR WARMER WEATHER TO PERSIST. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD...SO WE ARE PRETTY MUCH LEAVING IT ALONE FOR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH
WE SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE
THREAT OF SNOW MELT AND WATER RISES WILL CONTINUE.  KEYES
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WE MAY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 50KTS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL KEEP GOING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR KBYI...KPIH AND KIDA. WE ARE ALSO KEEPING VCSH
IN FOR KIDA AND KPIH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AT LEAST AS MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN LOCATIONS. WE MAY NEED TO ADD
THIS FOR KSUN FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCE...BUT APPEARS KBYI SHOULD BE
DRY AFTER THIS EVENING.  KEYES
&&

.HYDROLOGY...EXPECT TO SEE IN-BANK RISES IN RIVERS AND STREAMS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO RUNOFF FROM PRECIP AND SNOW MELT. CURRENT
HYDROGRAPH PROJECTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING FLOODING AT THIS TIME.
HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ017-020-021.
&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 230054
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
655 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...UPDATE THIS EVENING TO CLEAR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FROM SE IDAHO COUNTIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. WIND
ADVISORY STILL VERIFYING ACROSS INL AND SELECT LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
SE IDAHO MOUNTAINS. SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN THE NUMERICAL AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FROM EARLIER TODAY AS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS IT
DROPPING OFF ACROSS THE UPPER VALLEY AND SE HIGHLANDS WITH A
RESURGENCE ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY MODIFICATIONS WITH THE ADVISORY UNTIL I CAN GET A
LOOK AT THE NEWER 00Z DATA. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. HUSTON


TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...APPROACHING TROUGH ADVANCING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. COLD
FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH IDAHO WITH UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES. MODELS AND SATELLITE SHOW AREA OF LIFT AND POTENTIAL
FOR RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS IN LINE WITH SPC SLIGHT RISK. AS
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THIS EVENING...SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES LEAVING
CWA WITH STRONG WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION. MUCH COOLER AND WINDY
WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS SNOW
ALBEIT LIGHT AMOUNTS DUE TO RAPID LOSS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
DITTMANN

THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS. WE WON`T TOTALLY
DRY OUT EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5500FT IN THE MORNING...RISING TO 6500-7000FT BY
AFTERNOON. BY THEN...WE WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
SOUTHEAST...BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. THIS STORM CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF SPLITTING BUT IT APPEARS WE ARE LOOKING AT A DECENT
SHOT OF MOISTURE HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS
WILL RANGE FROM 6500FT IN THE WEST TO AROUND 8000FT AROUND BEAR
LAKE. THIS MEANS...THAT WE MAY BE LOOKING AT RAIN ON TOP OF SNOW IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SOME MELTING FOR MID SLOPES.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS REMAINS OVER ALL OF EASTERN IDAHO HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...WITH A DWINDLING CHANCE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BEYOND
THAT...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THE STATE...DRYING US
OUT AND ALLOWING FOR WARMER WEATHER TO PERSIST. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD...SO WE ARE PRETTY MUCH LEAVING IT ALONE FOR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH
WE SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE
THREAT OF SNOW MELT AND WATER RISES WILL CONTINUE.  KEYES
&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WE MAY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 50KTS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL KEEP GOING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR KBYI...KPIH AND KIDA. WE ARE ALSO KEEPING VCSH
IN FOR KIDA AND KPIH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AT LEAST AS MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN LOCATIONS. WE MAY NEED TO ADD
THIS FOR KSUN FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES...BUT APPEARS KBYI SHOULD BE
DRY AFTER THIS EVENING.  KEYES
&&

.HYDROLOGY...EXPECT TO SEE IN-BANK RISES IN RIVERS AND STREAMS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO RUNOFF FROM PRECIP AND SNOW MELT. CURRENT
HYDROGRAPH PROJECTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING FLOODING AT THIS TIME.
HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ017-020-021.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ022>025.
&&

$$












000
FXUS65 KPIH 221827
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
1227 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...APPROACHING
TROUGH ADVANCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH IDAHO WITH UNSTABLE AIR IN
PLACE ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES. MODELS AND SATELLITE SHOW AREA OF
LIFT AND POTENTIAL FOR RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS OVER THE EASTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THIS IN LINE WITH SPC
SLIGHT RISK. AS FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THIS EVENING...SEVERE THREAT
DIMINISHES LEAVING CWA WITH STRONG WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION. MUCH
COOLER AND WINDY WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION
TO FALL AS SNOW ALBEIT LIGHT AMOUNTS DUE TO RAPID LOSS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. DITTMANN

...THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA IN BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS. WE WON`T TOTALLY
DRY OUT EXCEPT ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THURSDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5500FT IN THE MORNING...RISING TO 6500-7000FT BY
AFTERNOON. BY THEN...WE WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD
SOUTHEAST...BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS. THIS STORM CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF SPLITTING BUT IT APPEARS WE ARE LOOKING AT A DECENT
SHOT OF MOISTURE HEADING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS
WILL RANGE FROM 6500FT IN THE WEST TO AROUND 8000FT AROUND BEAR
LAKE. THIS MEANS...THAT WE MAY BE LOOKING AT RAIN ON TOP OF SNOW IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SOME MELTING FOR MID SLOPES.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS REMAINS OVER ALL OF EASTERN IDAHO HEADING INTO
SATURDAY...WITH A DWINDLING CHANCE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BEYOND
THAT...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THE STATE...DRYING US
OUT AND ALLOWING FOR WARMER WEATHER TO PERSIST. THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING SOME REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND THE FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD...SO WE ARE PRETTY MUCH LEAVING IT ALONE FOR TODAY. EVEN THOUGH
WE SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A COOL DOWN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE THREAT
OF SNOW MELT AND WATER RISES WILL CONTINUE.  KEYES


&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL AFFECT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WE MAY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALONG WITH A THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 50KTS. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL KEEP GOING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR KBYI...KPIH AND KIDA. WE ARE ALSO KEEPING VCSH
IN FOR KIDA AND KPIH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AT LEAST AS MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN LOCATIONS. WE MAY NEED TO ADD
THIS FOR KSUN FOR LATER TAF ISSUANCES...BUT APPEARS KBYI SHOULD BE
DRY AFTER THIS EVENING.  KEYES


&&

.HYDROLOGY...EXPECT TO SEE IN-BANK RISES IN RIVERS AND STREAMS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO RUNOFF FROM PRECIP AND SNOW MELT. CURRENT
HYDROGRAPH PROJECTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING FLOODING AT THIS TIME.
HINSBERGER


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY IDZ017-020-021.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ022>025.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 221456
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
856 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...ENERGETIC PACIFIC STORM MOVING INTO WESTERN IDAHO THIS
MID MORNING. SURFACE WINDS ON TRACK TO INCREASE AS THE MORNING
WEARS ON AND BY MID DAY WE WILL BE WINDY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SNAKE PLAIN. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE TYPICAL SPOTS IN
BLOWING DUST WHICH IS TO SAY KEEP AN EYE ON I-15 NEAR ROBERTS.

CONVECTION CONCERN REMAINS AS DRY SLOT WORKS INTO AREA AND ENOUGH
SUN IS EXPOSED TO GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC OUTLOOK HAS AREA
FROM POCATELLO NORTH TO MONIDA AND POINTS EAST IN THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE THREAT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES
THROUGH BY THIS EVENING...THAT THREAT ENDS AND WE ARE LEFT WITH
THE WIND.

FORECAST HAS THESE DETAILS HANDLED SO NO CHANGES MADE TO GOING
PACKAGE SO FAR. DITTMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 228 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH MAKING LANDFALL INTO WA/OR/CA COASTLINES THIS MORNING.
NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN COLD CLOUD TOPS. ALREADY
SEEING SOME RAIN ON THE STERLING WEBCAM ALONG A THETA-E
RIDGE...AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOWING MAIN BAND OF
PRECIP WILL BE JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD ENTER OUR
WESTERN BORDER BETWEEN 15Z TO 18Z AND PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z
TONIGHT. TRIMMED THE POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS A BIT EXCEPT FOR THE
WASATCH RANGE. INSTABILITY BECOMES A FACTOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LIFTED INDICES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPC
OUTLOOK FOR TODAY EXPANDED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INTO MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. KEEPING THUNDER MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW. CURRENT HEADLINES COVER THIS
WELL.  HINSBERGER

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH A MAJOR UPPER TROF OVER THE W COAST ON FRI. THE TROF
ROTATES TO A NEG TILT BY SAT AS IT MOVES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE
GFS HAS DEPARTED FROM THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
TO MORE WHAT THE ECMWF WAS SUGGESTING. THE END RESULT IS PRECIP
SPREADING ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON FRI AND REMAINING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD THRU SAT. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH...BUT SNOW MAY
OCCASIONALLY MIX WITH RAIN OVERNIGHT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE UPPER TROF DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION ON SUN...SO THE THREAT OF PRECIP
REMAINS. THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...SO WOULD EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE. BY MON...BOTH MODELS BUILD
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE WEST...BUT THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
STUBBORN WITH MOVING THE UPPER TROF OUT OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE MTNS ON MON...THEN DRY EVERYTHING OUT MON
NIGHT AS BOTH MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING BEING THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THRU TUE NIGHT. HEDGES

AVIATION...A DEEP UPPER TROF MVING INTO THE WEST COAST TODAY WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTN. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO LOW VFR...WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. SW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. HEDGES

HYDROLOGY...EXPECT TO SEE IN-BANK RISES IN RIVERS AND STREAMS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO RUNOFF FROM PRECIP AND SNOWMELT. CURRENT
HYDROGRAPH PROJECTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING FLOODING AT THIS TIME.
HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
IDZ017-020-021.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
IDZ022>025.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 220828
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
228 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH MAKING LANDFALL INTO WA/OR/CA COASTLINES THIS MORNING.
NEGATIVE TILT TO THE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN COLD CLOUD TOPS. ALREADY
SEEING SOME RAIN ON THE STERLING WEBCAM ALONG A THETA-E
RIDGE...AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT. MODELS SHOWING MAIN BAND OF
PRECIP WILL BE JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD ENTER OUR
WESTERN BORDER BETWEEN 15Z TO 18Z AND PUSH OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z
TONIGHT. TRIMMED THE POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS A BIT EXCEPT FOR THE
WASATCH RANGE. INSTABILITY BECOMES A FACTOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LIFTED INDICES DROPPING BELOW ZERO AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SPC
OUTLOOK FOR TODAY EXPANDED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INTO MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. KEEPING THUNDER MENTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
ARE SHOWING A TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW. CURRENT HEADLINES COVER THIS
WELL.  HINSBERGER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH A MAJOR UPPER TROF OVER THE W COAST ON FRI. THE TROF
ROTATES TO A NEG TILT BY SAT AS IT MOVES OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE
GFS HAS DEPARTED FROM THE PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
TO MORE WHAT THE ECMWF WAS SUGGESTING. THE END RESULT IS PRECIP
SPREADING ACROSS THE FCST AREA ON FRI AND REMAINING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD THRU SAT. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN HIGH...BUT SNOW MAY
OCCASIONALLY MIX WITH RAIN OVERNIGHT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE UPPER TROF DOES
NOT SHOW MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESSION ON SUN...SO THE THREAT OF PRECIP
REMAINS. THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...SO WOULD EXPECT
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE. BY MON...BOTH MODELS BUILD
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE WEST...BUT THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE MORE
STUBBORN WITH MOVING THE UPPER TROF OUT OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE MTNS ON MON...THEN DRY EVERYTHING OUT MON
NIGHT AS BOTH MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING BEING THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THRU TUE NIGHT. HEDGES
&&

.AVIATION...A DEEP UPPER TROF MVING INTO THE WEST COAST TODAY WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION BY THIS AFTN. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO LOW VFR...WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. SW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN/EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY. HEDGES

.HYDROLOGY...EXPECT TO SEE IN-BANK RISES IN RIVERS AND STREAMS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO RUNOFF FROM PRECIP AND SNOWMELT. CURRENT
HYDROGRAPH PROJECTIONS ARE NOT INDICATING FLOODING AT THIS TIME.
HINSBERGER
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
IDZ017-020-021.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
IDZ022>025.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 220259
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
859 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVING INTO PACIFIC COAST THIS EVENING.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVE LEADING THE WAY WITH COLD FRONT
POISED TO ENTER WESTERN IDAHO PER SFC OBSERVATIONS. MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AHEAD OF LEADING WAVE PRODUCING WEAK RADAR RETURNS BUT
BELIEVE LITTLE REACHING THE GROUND AT THIS POINT PER STEEP SFC DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS. MODELS STILL DIFFERING IN HANDLING OF PRECIP
AHEAD OF MAIN COLD FRONT...EVEN IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM. HAVE
TRENDED OVERNIGHT POP GRIDS TOWARD SLIGHTLY SLOWER HRRR/NAM BLEND
WITH WEAK QPF DEVELOPING MAINLY AFTER 06Z IN UPPER SNAKE REGION
AND DEEPER MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MAINLY
AFTER 12Z. COLD FRONT PASSAGE SLOWS ACROSS THE REGION PER NAM
ALLOWING STRONGER SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW NORTHERN UTAH. EARLY LOOK AT 00Z
NAM GUIDANCE STILL REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SNAKE PLAIN.
HAVE NO REASON TO TAKE HEADLINE DOWN AT THIS POINT. DMH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE BY DAYBREAK AND ARRIVE IN
EASTERN IDAHO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL BECOME MOST NUMEROUS WITH THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME
VERY SMALL HAIL. EXPECT A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE DROP WITH THE FRONT
AS SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL FROM AROUND 10000 FEET TO 6000 FEET. THE
BIGGER STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE WIND. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN IDAHO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FOR A FEW HOURS TUESDAY EVENING BUT WILL RAMP BACK UP LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN BECAUSE
OF A VERY STRONG JET STREAM OVERHEAD. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE
ISSUED. AS FAR AS SNOW IS CONCERNED...NOT MUCH. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY AROUND ISLAND PARK
AND PINE CREEK SUMMIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VALLE

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAGIC
VALLEY AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AS THE MAIN STORM REMAINS TO OUR
WEST. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE OFF JUST A BIT ON HOW IT
DISTRIBUTES PRECIPITATION AND TIMING...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS TO
FINALLY SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE STILL ADVERTISING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS JUST A BIT STRONGER WITH THE SPLIT. WE DID INCREASE SHOWER
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND A BIT...BUT NOT EXTREMELY HIGH. WITH SPLIT
FLOW...WE MORE OFTEN THAN NOT DO NOT SEE A LOT OF PRECIPITATION AS
THAT WAS THE THINKING WITH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE WEST
AND DRY THINGS OUT. THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED...WE WILL BE SEE
HIGH SNOW LEVELS WHICH MEANS THE POTENTIAL OF RAIN ON TOP OF SNOW
EXISTS. TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT
NIGHT...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP CONTINUE
MELTING/RUNOFF POTENTIAL AT NIGHT. THERE MIGHT BE SOME SLOWING DOWN
AT NIGHT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN KEY WILL LIKELY HOW MUCH MOISTURE
ENDS UP FALLING WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE DEPENDS ON HOW PATTERN
EVOLVES. KEYES

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO...20-30KT SUSTAINED WILL DEVELOP EITHER SIDE OF IT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM LATE MORNING
ONWARD. BLOWING DUST MAY BE AN ISSUE IN SOME AREAS...INCLUDING KIDA
AND KPIH. WITH THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...STRONG WINDS GUSTS AND SMALL
HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. DIPPING INTO MVFR TERRITORY CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EITHER WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. KEYES

HYDROLOGY...A MOISTURE-LADEN STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUMPING PRECIPITATION ON A RIPENING
SNOWPACK. WARM DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO SNOWMELT.
ONLY IN-BANK RISES SHOULD OCCUR IN RIVERS AS A RESULT OF THE RUNOFF.
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
IDZ017-020-021.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY IDZ022>025.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 212000
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
200 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE BY DAYBREAK AND ARRIVE IN
EASTERN IDAHO ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL BECOME MOST NUMEROUS WITH THE FRONT
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME INSTABILITY OVER THE
REGION TOMORROW SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SOME
VERY SMALL HAIL. EXPECT A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE DROP WITH THE FRONT
AS SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL FROM AROUND 10000 FEET TO 6000 FEET. THE
BIGGER STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE WIND. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN IDAHO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FOR A FEW HOURS TUESDAY EVENING BUT WILL RAMP BACK UP LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN BECAUSE
OF A VERY STRONG JET STREAM OVERHEAD. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE
ISSUED. AS FAR AS SNOW IS CONCERNED...NOT MUCH. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY AROUND ISLAND PARK
AND PINE CREEK SUMMIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

VALLE

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MAGIC
VALLEY AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AS THE MAIN STORM REMAINS TO OUR
WEST. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS ARE OFF JUST A BIT ON HOW IT
DISTRIBUTES PRECIPITATION AND TIMING...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS TO
FINALLY SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND
ECMWF ARE STILL ADVERTISING SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
GFS JUST A BIT STRONGER WITH THE SPLIT. WE DID INCREASE SHOWER
CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND A BIT...BUT NOT EXTREMELY HIGH. WITH SPLIT
FLOW...WE MORE OFTEN THAN NOT DO NOT SEE A LOT OF PRECIPITATION AS
THAT WAS THE THINKING WITH THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE WEST
AND DRY THINGS OUT. THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED...WE WILL BE SEE
HIGH SNOW LEVELS WHICH MEANS THE POTENTIAL OF RAIN ON TOP OF SNOW
EXISTS. TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT
NIGHT...AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP CONTINUE
MELTING/RUNOFF POTENTIAL AT NIGHT. THERE MIGHT BE SOME SLOWING DOWN
AT NIGHT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN KEY WILL LIKELY HOW MUCH MOISTURE
ENDS UP FALLING WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE DEPENDS ON HOW PATTERN
EVOLVES. KEYES

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO...20-30KT SUSTAINED WILL DEVELOP EITHER SIDE OF IT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS FROM LATE MORNING
ONWARD. BLOWING DUST MAY BE AN ISSUE IN SOME AREAS...INCLUDING KIDA
AND KPIH. WITH THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...STRONG WINDS GUSTS AND SMALL
HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. DIPPING INTO MVFR TERRITORY CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EITHER WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. KEYES

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A MOISTURE-LADEN STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUMPING PRECIPITATION ON A RIPENING
SNOWPACK. WARM DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ALSO HELP CONTRIBUTE TO SNOWMELT.
ONLY IN-BANK RISES SHOULD OCCUR IN RIVERS AS A RESULT OF THE RUNOFF.
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HINSBERGER

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
IDZ017-020-021.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY IDZ022>025.

&&

$$






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