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000
FXUS65 KPIH 221945
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
145 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IDAHO TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
SNAKE PLAIN...HOWEVER MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY SPREADING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MAKES FOR TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
FAVORED THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER PLAIN, SOME WARMING
IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. ALONG THE I-86 CORRIDOR...WARMED
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS COULD MAKE THEM GO EITHER WAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS MODELS
SUGGESTED YESTERDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR 135-140W DIGS
SOUTHWARD WITH THE DOWN STREAM MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH BOWS NORTHWARD BY FRIDAY
NIGHT UNDER AN AMPLIFYING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. SNOW LEVELS ABOUT
8000 FEET FRIDAY RISING TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING. VERY
LIMITED ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.
CONTINUE TO WATCH MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA WEST OF
HAWAII. LATEST GFS MODEL DRAWS SOME OF THIS MOISTURE INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH...BUT WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER
IDAHO...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MAIN MOISTURE ENDS UP MOVING INTO
OREGON...WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PAN HANDLE. WE STILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TRIES TO MOVE INLAND A DAY
OR TWO LATER. RS

.LONG TERM...SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STILL EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW STAYING ABOVE 6000
FEET OR SO. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW ITS EXIT...SO HAVE
BOOSTED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON. THERE ARE STRONG MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEYOND SUN NIGHT WITH THE WETTER GFS SCENARIO AND A
DRIER ECMWF. THIS HAS BEEN HAPPENING FOR THE SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN MORE RELIABLE. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING WETTER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW GONE DURING THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME. TENDED TO
BELIEVE THE GFS MORE...BUT NCEP HAS CONTINUED TO RECOMMEND A BLEND
OF THE TWO MODELS. THE GFS IS BRINGING UP MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM ANA THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH MAKES TUE-WED A VERY WET
PERIOD ON THE GFS FOR SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE FASCINATING THING IS THAT
THE MORE MILD TROPICAL AIR OF THE GFS KEEPS TEMPERATURES MILD IN
SPITE OF THE CLOUD COVER...WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE SAME RANGE DUE TO ITS CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY STRONG
DISCREPANCIES OCCUR ON MONDAY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.  AN
AVERAGE OF THE TWO MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS GIVES A MORE REASONABLE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR MON...AT LEAST FOR NOW. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH ALLOWING MID- AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO...COMMONLY CALLED A DIRTY RIDGE
SITUATION. MID-LEVEL CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
MOST OF THE DAY ON THU. WIND SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT AND NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 221945
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
145 PM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IDAHO TONIGHT. NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
SNAKE PLAIN...HOWEVER MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY SPREADING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS MAKES FOR TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
FAVORED THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER PLAIN, SOME WARMING
IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. ALONG THE I-86 CORRIDOR...WARMED
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE OVER WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS COULD MAKE THEM GO EITHER WAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS MODELS
SUGGESTED YESTERDAY...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR 135-140W DIGS
SOUTHWARD WITH THE DOWN STREAM MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH BOWS NORTHWARD BY FRIDAY
NIGHT UNDER AN AMPLIFYING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. SNOW LEVELS ABOUT
8000 FEET FRIDAY RISING TO NEAR 10000 FEET BY THURSDAY EVENING. VERY
LIMITED ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES.
CONTINUE TO WATCH MOISTURE FROM FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA WEST OF
HAWAII. LATEST GFS MODEL DRAWS SOME OF THIS MOISTURE INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH...BUT WITH THE RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER
IDAHO...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THE MAIN MOISTURE ENDS UP MOVING INTO
OREGON...WASHINGTON AND THE IDAHO PAN HANDLE. WE STILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL THE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TRIES TO MOVE INLAND A DAY
OR TWO LATER. RS

.LONG TERM...SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WED NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STILL EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW STAYING ABOVE 6000
FEET OR SO. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW ITS EXIT...SO HAVE
BOOSTED POPS FOR SUN NIGHT AND MON. THERE ARE STRONG MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEYOND SUN NIGHT WITH THE WETTER GFS SCENARIO AND A
DRIER ECMWF. THIS HAS BEEN HAPPENING FOR THE SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THE
GFS HAS BEEN MORE RELIABLE. THE ECMWF IS TRENDING WETTER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW GONE DURING THE MON-TUE TIMEFRAME. TENDED TO
BELIEVE THE GFS MORE...BUT NCEP HAS CONTINUED TO RECOMMEND A BLEND
OF THE TWO MODELS. THE GFS IS BRINGING UP MORE MOISTURE FROM THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM ANA THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH MAKES TUE-WED A VERY WET
PERIOD ON THE GFS FOR SOUTHERN IDAHO. THE FASCINATING THING IS THAT
THE MORE MILD TROPICAL AIR OF THE GFS KEEPS TEMPERATURES MILD IN
SPITE OF THE CLOUD COVER...WHILE THE DRIER ECMWF KEEPS TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE SAME RANGE DUE TO ITS CLEAR SKIES. THE ONLY STRONG
DISCREPANCIES OCCUR ON MONDAY IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN.  AN
AVERAGE OF THE TWO MOS GUIDANCE PRODUCTS GIVES A MORE REASONABLE
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR MON...AT LEAST FOR NOW. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL HIGH ALLOWING MID- AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO...COMMONLY CALLED A DIRTY RIDGE
SITUATION. MID-LEVEL CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
MOST OF THE DAY ON THU. WIND SHOULD CONTINUE LIGHT AND NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 220859
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
259 AM MDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...FAIR WEATHER TODAY UNDER A TRANSIENT RIDGE AS IT
PASSES OVER IDAHO. AS RIDGING SLIDES TO THE EAST...IT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STEADY STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE MID AND
UPPER-LEVELS. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND KEPT POPS MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BY THEN...RIDGING WILL
AGAIN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION SHIFTING THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FURTHER NORTH. MODELS SHOWING A DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC
NW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
AND THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY.
TROUGH ADVANCES INLAND LATE SATURDAY AND PUSHES RAIN THREAT FURTHER
ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN HIGHLANDS ON
SUNDAY. BOUNDARY-LAYER AND 700 MB WIND PROGS SUGGEST BREEZIER
CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES ON SUNDAY...BUT WIND SPEEDS
REMAINING 25 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN.

GFS BOOSTS MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AGAIN TUESDAY WITH REMNANTS
OF TROPICAL STORM ANA PUSHING ONSHORE...THOUGH MODELS STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH TIMING.

HINSBERGER
&&

.AVIATION...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS THRU TONIGHT. A FEW LOW CLDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORN IN
THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. HEDGES
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER RIDGING TODAY WILL RESULT IN RATHER QUIET
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY
...WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY...WITH
SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK UP OVER THE ROCKIES.  A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND OVER THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. HEDGES
&&


.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 212007
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
207 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...THE LOW PRESSURE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTH
AND EAST AND BY MIDNIGHT...THE ONLY SHOWERS LEFT WILL BE NEAR ISLAND
PARK. WINDS IN THE SNAKE PLAIN ARE ALSO DROPPING OFF AND WILL CANCEL
THE WIND ADVISORY SHORTLY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRANSITIONS THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING A SHORT BREAK FROM ANY SHOWERS. WITH RESPECT
TO THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NEAR 135W...MODEL
CONSENSUS IS TO DIG THE TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH THE NEXT 48 TO 60
HOURS. THIS PLACES THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST IDAHO
UNDER THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE AMPLITUDE
OF THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN INCREASES SHARPLY..TAKING ANY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WELL NORTH TO THE PAN HANDLE BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH CAN MOVE
INLAND. THAT GIVES THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES A CHANCE WARM UP ABOUT
15 DEGREES THE NEXT COUPLE THREE DAYS BEFORE DROPPING AGAIN. WELCOME
TO FALL WEATHER. RS

.LONG TERM...FRI NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUE NIGHT. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SAT NIGHT/SUN. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS
WINDY WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION...VERY LIKELY SNOW DOWN TO THE 6000
FT ELEVATION IN PLACES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE THIS
FEATURE...AND HAVE HAD IT FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND THIS
POINT...THE ECMWF TAKES A DEPARTURE FROM THE GFS WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT KEEPS THE REST OF THIS PERIOD DRY. THE GFS IS THE
EXACT OPPOSITE WITH A LOW CONTAINING TROPICAL MOISTURE MAKING FOR A
LARGE PRECIPITATION EVENT ON MON NIGHT/TUE/TUE NIGHT. NCEP HAS NOT
PREFERRED THE DRY ECMWF...BUT HAS SUGGESTED A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
TWO GUIDANCE SUITES. THIS IS WHAT HAS BEEN DONE...WITH AN ADJUSTMENT
FOR SURROUNDING OFFICE COORDINATION. MESSICK

&&

.AVIATION...WIND WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING AND SKIES WILL
CLEAR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH THAT
FOG AND STRATUS ARE NOT CONSIDERED A PROBLEM FOR ANY AIRDROME...AT
LEAST AT THIS TIME. NO SERIOUS IMPACT TO AVIATION INTERESTS ON WED.
MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 211417
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
817 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS INCREASING IN THE EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE OCCURING. WIND
ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY UNTIL 2
PM THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN WAS
MADE EFFECT NOW THROUGH 6 PM MDT. RS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING BY LATE MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WESTERN IDAHO. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY UNDER THE LOW AS
NOTED BY A HANDFUL OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 7000
FEET AND UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PEAKS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STANLEY COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AS AN AGGRESSIVE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP TO RAMP UP WINDS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE POCATELLO AREA WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE MOIST PLUME FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD QUITE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR
THOSE DAYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 8500 FEET AND A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT AND ABOVE THAT ELEVATION.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER A POWERFUL COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND SNAKE PLAIN. MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY CLEARING THE REGION FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY ARRIVING FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

VALLE

AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU EASTERN ID THIS MORNING...
BRINGING SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MORE
ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE AFTN.
CIG/VIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...BECOMING STRONG THIS AFTN.
HEDGES

FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO
THIS MORNING...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 7800 FEET. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON IDZ017.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 211417
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
817 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS INCREASING IN THE EASTERN
MAGIC VALLEY WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE OCCURING. WIND
ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY UNTIL 2
PM THIS AFTERNOON. WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN WAS
MADE EFFECT NOW THROUGH 6 PM MDT. RS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING BY LATE MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WESTERN IDAHO. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY UNDER THE LOW AS
NOTED BY A HANDFUL OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 7000
FEET AND UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PEAKS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STANLEY COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AS AN AGGRESSIVE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP TO RAMP UP WINDS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE POCATELLO AREA WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE MOIST PLUME FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD QUITE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR
THOSE DAYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 8500 FEET AND A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT AND ABOVE THAT ELEVATION.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER A POWERFUL COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND SNAKE PLAIN. MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY CLEARING THE REGION FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY ARRIVING FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

VALLE

AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU EASTERN ID THIS MORNING...
BRINGING SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MORE
ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE AFTN.
CIG/VIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...BECOMING STRONG THIS AFTN.
HEDGES

FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO
THIS MORNING...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 7800 FEET. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON IDZ017.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 210826
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
226 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING BY LATE MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WESTERN IDAHO. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY UNDER THE LOW AS
NOTED BY A HANDFUL OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 7000
FEET AND UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PEAKS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STANLEY COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AS AN AGGRESSIVE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP TO RAMP UP WINDS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE POCATELLO AREA WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE MOIST PLUME FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD QUITE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR
THOSE DAYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 8500 FEET AND A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT AND ABOVE THAT ELEVATION.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER A POWERFUL COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND SNAKE PLAIN. MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY CLEARING THE REGION FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY ARRIVING FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU EASTERN ID THIS MORNING...
BRINGING SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MORE
ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE AFTN.
CIG/VIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...BECOMING STRONG THIS AFTN.
HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO
THIS MORNING...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 7800 FEET. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 210826
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
226 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WYOMING BY LATE MORNING. THE UPPER LOW IS
WELL BEHIND THE FRONT OVER WESTERN IDAHO. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY UNDER THE LOW AS
NOTED BY A HANDFUL OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 7000
FEET AND UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PEAKS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STANLEY COULD SEE A DUSTING OF SNOW TODAY.
EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SNAKE PLAIN AS AN AGGRESSIVE DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL HELP TO RAMP UP WINDS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN. WILL CONTINUE
THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE POCATELLO AREA WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF
25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR
WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
GFS/NAM/ECMWF NOW SHOWING THE MOIST PLUME FURTHER SOUTH FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL SPREAD QUITE A BIT MORE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE REGION AND WILL PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS FOR
THOSE DAYS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 8500 FEET AND A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT AND ABOVE THAT ELEVATION.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER A POWERFUL COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW
LEVELS WILL FALL TO AROUND 6000 FEET AND EXPECT CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS WITH SOME ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND SNAKE PLAIN. MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY CLEARING THE REGION FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY ARRIVING FOR NEXT TUESDAY.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THRU EASTERN ID THIS MORNING...
BRINGING SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO THE CENTRAL MTNS AND MORE
ISOLD ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE AFTN.
CIG/VIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN...BECOMING STRONG THIS AFTN.
HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IDAHO
THIS MORNING...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ABOVE 7800 FEET. STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING AGAIN BY FRIDAY.
HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING IDZ021.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KPIH 210235
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
835 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED INLAND WITH DEEP SOUTH
FLOW OVER MOST OF EAST IDAHO AHEAD OF ADVANCING SHORTWAVE. SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS COLDEST TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGEST ENERGY STILL
OVER OREGON BUT CLOUD COVER FILLING IN OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA. RADAR SHOWED 20-30DBZ ECHOES OVER LEE EDGE OF
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS EVENING AND ADDITIONAL SIMILAR ECHOES
ADVANCING ON CENTRAL MOUNTAIN ZONES. SFC DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
STILL DEEP SO QUESTION OF HOW MUCH PRECIP ACTUALLY REACHING GROUND
BUT CANT RULE OUT IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WEAK MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN WESTERN
HALF OF FORECAST AREA BEFORE 06Z THEN FILLING IN BETWEEN 06Z-12Z.
THIS ON TRACK WITH EARLIER RUNS AND CURRENT FORECAST. HAVE NUDGED POPS
UPWARD SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING FOR CURRENT RADAR AND SAT TRENDS. NO
OTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED. DMH



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014/

SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE TUESDAY MORNING.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL REACH STANLEY ABOUT 5-6 AM TUESDAY. A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN CUSTER AND BUTTE
COUNTY WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. SNOW
LEVELS DIP TO ABOUT 8700 FEET...1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 7800-8500 FEET...UP TO 5 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARDS MONTANA...WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TRAILS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IT WILL BE ON THE WINDY SIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN. TUESDAY
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
END TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THIS AREA. RS

LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MON NIGHT. 500MB 5-WAVE PROG
INDICATES A SLOW CHANGE FROM BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW AND GREAT PLAINS
HIGH WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN...TO TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THUS EXPECT WETTER CONDITIONS BY
THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN THE LONGWAVE DEVELOPING A TROUGH. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT/SUN...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS AND CLOUDS FOR THOSE PERIODS AND THE OTHER TWO SURROUNDING THEM
TO REFLECT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. THIS SHOULD ALSO BRING SOME WINDY
CONDITIONS...BUT CURRENTLY APPEARS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. MESSICK

AVIATION...INCOMING COLD FRONT ARRIVES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
THE WEST AND SPREADS EASTWARD DURING THE EARLY MORNING. GOOD CHANCE
OF AIRDROME CLOSURE AT KSUN TUE MORNING WITH THE AMOUNT OF INCOMING
MOISTURE DUE TO CIG. ELSEWHERE...CIGS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING. VSBY SHOULD ALSO STAY GOOD VFR WITH ONLY -RA TYPE
OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BELOW 8000 FT ELEVATION. WIND SHIFT WITH
THE FRONT AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH PEAKING SHORTLY AFTER 21/1800Z SO INCLUDED
IN TAFS AFTER THE 21/00Z ARE ISSUED. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY IDZ021.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 201952
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
152 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE TUESDAY MORNING.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL REACH STANLEY ABOUT 5-6 AM TUESDAY. A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN CUSTER AND BUTTE
COUNTY WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. SNOW
LEVELS DIP TO ABOUT 8700 FEET...1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 7800-8500 FEET...UP TO 5 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARDS MONTANA...WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TRAILS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IT WILL BE ON THE WINDY SIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN. TUESDAY
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
END TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THIS AREA. RS

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MON NIGHT. 500MB 5-WAVE PROG
INDICATES A SLOW CHANGE FROM BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW AND GREAT PLAINS
HIGH WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN...TO TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THUS EXPECT WETTER CONDITIONS BY
THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN THE LONGWAVE DEVELOPING A TROUGH. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT/SUN...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS AND CLOUDS FOR THOSE PERIODS AND THE OTHER TWO SURROUNDING THEM
TO REFLECT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. THIS SHOULD ALSO BRING SOME WINDY
CONDITIONS...BUT CURRENTLY APPEARS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. MESSICK

.AVIATION...INCOMING COLD FRONT ARRIVES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
THE WEST AND SPREADS EASTWARD DURING THE EARLY MORNING. GOOD CHANCE
OF AIRDROME CLOSURE AT KSUN TUE MORNING WITH THE AMOUNT OF INCOMING
MOISTURE DUE TO CIG. ELSEWHERE...CIGS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING. VSBY SHOULD ALSO STAY GOOD VFR WITH ONLY -RA TYPE
OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BELOW 8000 FT ELEVATION. WIND SHIFT WITH
THE FRONT AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH PEAKING SHORTLY AFTER 21/1800Z SO INCLUDED
IN TAFS AFTER THE 21/00Z ARE ISSUED. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY IDZ021.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KPIH 201952
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
152 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND LATE TONIGHT AND
BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BEFORE TUESDAY MORNING.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL REACH STANLEY ABOUT 5-6 AM TUESDAY. A
QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN CUSTER AND BUTTE
COUNTY WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. SNOW
LEVELS DIP TO ABOUT 8700 FEET...1-2 INCHES ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 7800-8500 FEET...UP TO 5 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THE
MAIN DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTHEAST TOWARDS MONTANA...WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT TRAILS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IT WILL BE ON THE WINDY SIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER SNAKE PLAIN. TUESDAY
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
END TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND MAINLY MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THIS AREA. RS

.LONG TERM...THU NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MON NIGHT. 500MB 5-WAVE PROG
INDICATES A SLOW CHANGE FROM BETWEEN A COASTAL LOW AND GREAT PLAINS
HIGH WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN...TO TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THUS EXPECT WETTER CONDITIONS BY
THE WEEKEND WITH EVEN THE LONGWAVE DEVELOPING A TROUGH. BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT NIGHT/SUN...SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS AND CLOUDS FOR THOSE PERIODS AND THE OTHER TWO SURROUNDING THEM
TO REFLECT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING. THIS SHOULD ALSO BRING SOME WINDY
CONDITIONS...BUT CURRENTLY APPEARS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. MESSICK

.AVIATION...INCOMING COLD FRONT ARRIVES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
THE WEST AND SPREADS EASTWARD DURING THE EARLY MORNING. GOOD CHANCE
OF AIRDROME CLOSURE AT KSUN TUE MORNING WITH THE AMOUNT OF INCOMING
MOISTURE DUE TO CIG. ELSEWHERE...CIGS SHOULD STAY VFR THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MORNING. VSBY SHOULD ALSO STAY GOOD VFR WITH ONLY -RA TYPE
OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED BELOW 8000 FT ELEVATION. WIND SHIFT WITH
THE FRONT AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH PEAKING SHORTLY AFTER 21/1800Z SO INCLUDED
IN TAFS AFTER THE 21/00Z ARE ISSUED. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM MDT TUESDAY IDZ021.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KPIH 200840
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
240 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ONE MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ADVANCE TOWARD IDAHO THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOWING MORE COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THROUGH
THE STATE ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
ALL DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS.
QPF AMOUNTS OF UP TO HALF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS WILL BE
BETWEEN A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MARCHES
THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 10000 FEET BUT
QUICKLY FALL TO AROUND 8000 FEET. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD
SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ON TUESDAY...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. THE NAM IS NOT SHOWING AS
MUCH WIND BECAUSE IT HAS MORE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THE DRIER GFS
SUPPORTS MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN.
FOR NOW FAVORING THE LESS WINDY NAM BECAUSE BOTH MODELS HAVE
INCREASED THEIR PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.

DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE THROUGH OREGON AND POSSIBLY
CLICK PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THOUGH. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES
IN THE FORM OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS...MAY SEE TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU TONIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PAC NW TODAY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD PRECIP INTO
THE CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY TUE MORN. HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TODAY...
SPREADING SHOWERS INTO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS. SHOWERS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KPIH 200840
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
240 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ONE MORE DAY OF DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ADVANCE TOWARD IDAHO THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOWING MORE COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS...ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL THROUGH
THE STATE ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
ALL DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS.
QPF AMOUNTS OF UP TO HALF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS WILL BE
BETWEEN A TENTH OF AN INCH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SNOW LEVELS
WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MARCHES
THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS WILL START AROUND 10000 FEET BUT
QUICKLY FALL TO AROUND 8000 FEET. SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS COULD
SEE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ON TUESDAY...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. THE NAM IS NOT SHOWING AS
MUCH WIND BECAUSE IT HAS MORE PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THE DRIER GFS
SUPPORTS MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN.
FOR NOW FAVORING THE LESS WINDY NAM BECAUSE BOTH MODELS HAVE
INCREASED THEIR PRECIPITATION COVERAGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.

DRIER WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE THROUGH OREGON AND POSSIBLY
CLICK PARTS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THOUGH. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM ARRIVES
IN THE FORM OF A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS
TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS...MAY SEE TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

VALLE

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU TONIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PAC NW TODAY WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD PRECIP INTO
THE CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS AND EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY TUE MORN. HEDGES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TODAY...
SPREADING SHOWERS INTO THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS BY TUESDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING WILL
SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS. SHOWERS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. HEDGES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





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