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000
FXUS65 KPIH 030935
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
335 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...LOOK FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ASSOCIATED SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM OUR SOUTH NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS WHERE .25 TO .5 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. LOOK FOR A
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION TUESDAY WHERE JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A DRIER TREND THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING BACK GOOD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY BRINGING
A DRIER TREND SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE WITH UNSTABLE MOIST AIR WILL MOVE IN THIS
MORNING...TRIGGERING A SHRA/TSRA RISK AT ALL AIRDROMES. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.
NORTHERLY OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO A
WESTERLY COMPONENT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OUTSIDE OF
TSRA HAZARDS...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO CIGS OR VSBYS EXPECTED.
MESSICK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN AIR MASS CHANGE WILL END THE HOT AND DRY
TEMPERATURES WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY/LOWER
TEMPERATURES. RED FLAG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SELECTED ELEVATIONS IN
THE IDAHO-UTAH BORDER REGION WHERE FUELS HAVE REACHED CRITICAL
DRYNESS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM TUE THROUGH THU...AS A LOW IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC EJECTS SOME SHORTWAVE IMPULSES INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW THAT
SETS UP AFTER THIS MAIN STORM. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A BREAK ON
FRI...THEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR IDZ413-427.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 030935
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
335 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...LOOK FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ASSOCIATED SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM OUR SOUTH NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS WHERE .25 TO .5 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. LOOK FOR A
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION TUESDAY WHERE JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A DRIER TREND THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING BACK GOOD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY BRINGING
A DRIER TREND SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE WITH UNSTABLE MOIST AIR WILL MOVE IN THIS
MORNING...TRIGGERING A SHRA/TSRA RISK AT ALL AIRDROMES. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.
NORTHERLY OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO A
WESTERLY COMPONENT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OUTSIDE OF
TSRA HAZARDS...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO CIGS OR VSBYS EXPECTED.
MESSICK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN AIR MASS CHANGE WILL END THE HOT AND DRY
TEMPERATURES WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY/LOWER
TEMPERATURES. RED FLAG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SELECTED ELEVATIONS IN
THE IDAHO-UTAH BORDER REGION WHERE FUELS HAVE REACHED CRITICAL
DRYNESS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM TUE THROUGH THU...AS A LOW IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC EJECTS SOME SHORTWAVE IMPULSES INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW THAT
SETS UP AFTER THIS MAIN STORM. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A BREAK ON
FRI...THEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR IDZ413-427.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 030935
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
335 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...LOOK FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ASSOCIATED SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM OUR SOUTH NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS WHERE .25 TO .5 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. LOOK FOR A
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION TUESDAY WHERE JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A DRIER TREND THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING BACK GOOD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY BRINGING
A DRIER TREND SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE WITH UNSTABLE MOIST AIR WILL MOVE IN THIS
MORNING...TRIGGERING A SHRA/TSRA RISK AT ALL AIRDROMES. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.
NORTHERLY OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO A
WESTERLY COMPONENT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OUTSIDE OF
TSRA HAZARDS...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO CIGS OR VSBYS EXPECTED.
MESSICK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN AIR MASS CHANGE WILL END THE HOT AND DRY
TEMPERATURES WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY/LOWER
TEMPERATURES. RED FLAG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SELECTED ELEVATIONS IN
THE IDAHO-UTAH BORDER REGION WHERE FUELS HAVE REACHED CRITICAL
DRYNESS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM TUE THROUGH THU...AS A LOW IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC EJECTS SOME SHORTWAVE IMPULSES INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW THAT
SETS UP AFTER THIS MAIN STORM. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A BREAK ON
FRI...THEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR IDZ413-427.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 030935
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
335 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...LOOK FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ASSOCIATED SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A 10 TO 15 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES FROM SUNDAY ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM OUR SOUTH NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
HIGHLANDS WHERE .25 TO .5 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED. LOOK FOR A
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION TUESDAY WHERE JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A DRIER TREND THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING BACK GOOD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY BRINGING
A DRIER TREND SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE WITH UNSTABLE MOIST AIR WILL MOVE IN THIS
MORNING...TRIGGERING A SHRA/TSRA RISK AT ALL AIRDROMES. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...THEN CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST.
NORTHERLY OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO A
WESTERLY COMPONENT FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OUTSIDE OF
TSRA HAZARDS...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO CIGS OR VSBYS EXPECTED.
MESSICK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN AIR MASS CHANGE WILL END THE HOT AND DRY
TEMPERATURES WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY/LOWER
TEMPERATURES. RED FLAG WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SELECTED ELEVATIONS IN
THE IDAHO-UTAH BORDER REGION WHERE FUELS HAVE REACHED CRITICAL
DRYNESS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM TUE THROUGH THU...AS A LOW IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC EJECTS SOME SHORTWAVE IMPULSES INTO THE WESTERLY FLOW THAT
SETS UP AFTER THIS MAIN STORM. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A BREAK ON
FRI...THEN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR IDZ413-427.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 021943
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
143 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS ALREADY BREAKING INTO THE 90S
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUD BUILD UPS ALSO NOTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH OF SUN VALLEY...A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO TELL IF ANY OF THOSE
WILL BE ABLE TO TURN INTO A THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN FOCUS IS ON SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS NEVADA AND UTAH GRADUALLY MAKING A SWING
THIS WAY. TIMING MOSTLY FAVORS DAY TIME MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THE NAM MODEL IN PARTICULARLY IS SUGGESTING
THE FLOW STRETCHES WEST AND EAST AS THE BAND MOVES UP TO IDAHO AND
FAVORS THE WETTER THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER THE BEAR LAKE AREA AND
CARIBOU HIGHLANDS. IN FACT THE GENERAL TREND SEEMS TO FAVOR THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS ALL THE WAY
TO ISLAND PARK THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ALONG THE EAST SIDE THROUGH
THE CARIBOU HIGHLANDS AND BEAR LAKE AREA...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME .25 TO .5 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS FROM A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY DROP 10 TO 12 DEGREES MONDAY WITH ALL THE
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AROUND. TUESDAY WE HAVE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH EMBEDDED LITTLE DISTURBANCES TO TRIGGER SOME AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE COMES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCREASED. MODELS SO FAR
HAVE THURSDAY AS THE DRIEST DAY AND THAT COULD BE SHORT LIVED. THE
GFS IS VERY QUICK WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC ON
FRIDAY....WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE SLOWER AND FAVOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. RS

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WE ARE STILL WAITING TO
SEE IF WE GET ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR KSUN.  RIGHT
NOW...NOT MUCH IS HAPPENING OTHER THAN SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING
BETWEEN 12-15Z MONDAY. WE HAVE VCSH IN FOR KBYI AND KPIH DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME SHIFTING TO -SHRA VCTS OR -TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS
LIKE KIDA AND KSUN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z. EXPECT VFR
WEATHER ALTHOUGH WITH HEAVIER CELLS...WE COULD SEE A DROP IN
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS AS WELL WINDS OVER 30KTS. BY LATE IN THE
DAY...15-25KT WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND KBYI AS THE SYSTEM CLEARS TO
THE NORTHEAST. KEYES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN PUSH FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS STILL ON
TRACK FOR MONDAY AS THE STORM ITSELF MOVES OVER IDAHO. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP IN EARNEST AROUND 15Z IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
SPREAD NORTH AFTER THAT. SCATTERED OR GREATER COVERAGE IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH LESS ACROSS THE SNAKE
PLAIN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONES 4278
AND 413 WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9AM TO 9PM.
BASED ON SOME OF THE TRENDS...THE HIGHEST COVERAGE COULD END UP
BEING CONFINED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER UNDER THE STRONGEST PART
OF THE SYSTEM. IF THAT ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...WE MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE RED FLAG TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. GUSTY WINDS OVER 30MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. MOST STORMS WILL BE DRY IN THE
BEGINNING BUT LATER IN THE DAY WE SHOULD SEE A MIX AND TRANSITIONING
TO MOSTLY WET BY EVENING. WHERE WE GET HEAVIER CELLS TO DEVELOP AND
WHERE WE GET MULTIPLE STORMS IN THE SAME LOCATION...AMOUNTS OF 0.20-
0.50 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER THAN THAT.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWER ON TUESDAY BUT STILL AROUND AS WE
WILL BE IN-BETWEEN STORMS. THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE NEXT LOW MOVES IN...BUT STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON WHERE THE HIGHER
COVERAGE AREAS WILL BE. ONE MODEL SUGGEST EVERYTHING WILL BE FROM
THE SNAKE PLAIN NORTH AND EAST...WHILE OTHERS SUGGEST ALL OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL GET HIT PRETTY GOOD BUT NOT MUCH IN THE PLAIN. WE
SHOULD HAVE THAT SORTED IN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR IDZ413-427.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 021943
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
143 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS ALREADY BREAKING INTO THE 90S
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUD BUILD UPS ALSO NOTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH OF SUN VALLEY...A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO TELL IF ANY OF THOSE
WILL BE ABLE TO TURN INTO A THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN FOCUS IS ON SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS NEVADA AND UTAH GRADUALLY MAKING A SWING
THIS WAY. TIMING MOSTLY FAVORS DAY TIME MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THE NAM MODEL IN PARTICULARLY IS SUGGESTING
THE FLOW STRETCHES WEST AND EAST AS THE BAND MOVES UP TO IDAHO AND
FAVORS THE WETTER THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER THE BEAR LAKE AREA AND
CARIBOU HIGHLANDS. IN FACT THE GENERAL TREND SEEMS TO FAVOR THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS ALL THE WAY
TO ISLAND PARK THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ALONG THE EAST SIDE THROUGH
THE CARIBOU HIGHLANDS AND BEAR LAKE AREA...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME .25 TO .5 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS FROM A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY DROP 10 TO 12 DEGREES MONDAY WITH ALL THE
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AROUND. TUESDAY WE HAVE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH EMBEDDED LITTLE DISTURBANCES TO TRIGGER SOME AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE COMES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCREASED. MODELS SO FAR
HAVE THURSDAY AS THE DRIEST DAY AND THAT COULD BE SHORT LIVED. THE
GFS IS VERY QUICK WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC ON
FRIDAY....WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE SLOWER AND FAVOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. RS

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WE ARE STILL WAITING TO
SEE IF WE GET ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR KSUN.  RIGHT
NOW...NOT MUCH IS HAPPENING OTHER THAN SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING
BETWEEN 12-15Z MONDAY. WE HAVE VCSH IN FOR KBYI AND KPIH DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME SHIFTING TO -SHRA VCTS OR -TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS
LIKE KIDA AND KSUN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z. EXPECT VFR
WEATHER ALTHOUGH WITH HEAVIER CELLS...WE COULD SEE A DROP IN
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS AS WELL WINDS OVER 30KTS. BY LATE IN THE
DAY...15-25KT WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND KBYI AS THE SYSTEM CLEARS TO
THE NORTHEAST. KEYES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN PUSH FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS STILL ON
TRACK FOR MONDAY AS THE STORM ITSELF MOVES OVER IDAHO. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP IN EARNEST AROUND 15Z IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
SPREAD NORTH AFTER THAT. SCATTERED OR GREATER COVERAGE IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH LESS ACROSS THE SNAKE
PLAIN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONES 4278
AND 413 WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9AM TO 9PM.
BASED ON SOME OF THE TRENDS...THE HIGHEST COVERAGE COULD END UP
BEING CONFINED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER UNDER THE STRONGEST PART
OF THE SYSTEM. IF THAT ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...WE MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE RED FLAG TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. GUSTY WINDS OVER 30MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. MOST STORMS WILL BE DRY IN THE
BEGINNING BUT LATER IN THE DAY WE SHOULD SEE A MIX AND TRANSITIONING
TO MOSTLY WET BY EVENING. WHERE WE GET HEAVIER CELLS TO DEVELOP AND
WHERE WE GET MULTIPLE STORMS IN THE SAME LOCATION...AMOUNTS OF 0.20-
0.50 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER THAN THAT.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWER ON TUESDAY BUT STILL AROUND AS WE
WILL BE IN-BETWEEN STORMS. THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE NEXT LOW MOVES IN...BUT STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON WHERE THE HIGHER
COVERAGE AREAS WILL BE. ONE MODEL SUGGEST EVERYTHING WILL BE FROM
THE SNAKE PLAIN NORTH AND EAST...WHILE OTHERS SUGGEST ALL OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL GET HIT PRETTY GOOD BUT NOT MUCH IN THE PLAIN. WE
SHOULD HAVE THAT SORTED IN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR IDZ413-427.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 021943
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
143 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS ALREADY BREAKING INTO THE 90S
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUD BUILD UPS ALSO NOTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH OF SUN VALLEY...A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO TELL IF ANY OF THOSE
WILL BE ABLE TO TURN INTO A THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN FOCUS IS ON SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS NEVADA AND UTAH GRADUALLY MAKING A SWING
THIS WAY. TIMING MOSTLY FAVORS DAY TIME MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THE NAM MODEL IN PARTICULARLY IS SUGGESTING
THE FLOW STRETCHES WEST AND EAST AS THE BAND MOVES UP TO IDAHO AND
FAVORS THE WETTER THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER THE BEAR LAKE AREA AND
CARIBOU HIGHLANDS. IN FACT THE GENERAL TREND SEEMS TO FAVOR THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS ALL THE WAY
TO ISLAND PARK THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ALONG THE EAST SIDE THROUGH
THE CARIBOU HIGHLANDS AND BEAR LAKE AREA...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME .25 TO .5 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS FROM A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY DROP 10 TO 12 DEGREES MONDAY WITH ALL THE
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AROUND. TUESDAY WE HAVE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH EMBEDDED LITTLE DISTURBANCES TO TRIGGER SOME AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE COMES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCREASED. MODELS SO FAR
HAVE THURSDAY AS THE DRIEST DAY AND THAT COULD BE SHORT LIVED. THE
GFS IS VERY QUICK WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC ON
FRIDAY....WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE SLOWER AND FAVOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. RS

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WE ARE STILL WAITING TO
SEE IF WE GET ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR KSUN.  RIGHT
NOW...NOT MUCH IS HAPPENING OTHER THAN SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING
BETWEEN 12-15Z MONDAY. WE HAVE VCSH IN FOR KBYI AND KPIH DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME SHIFTING TO -SHRA VCTS OR -TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS
LIKE KIDA AND KSUN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z. EXPECT VFR
WEATHER ALTHOUGH WITH HEAVIER CELLS...WE COULD SEE A DROP IN
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS AS WELL WINDS OVER 30KTS. BY LATE IN THE
DAY...15-25KT WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND KBYI AS THE SYSTEM CLEARS TO
THE NORTHEAST. KEYES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN PUSH FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS STILL ON
TRACK FOR MONDAY AS THE STORM ITSELF MOVES OVER IDAHO. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP IN EARNEST AROUND 15Z IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
SPREAD NORTH AFTER THAT. SCATTERED OR GREATER COVERAGE IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH LESS ACROSS THE SNAKE
PLAIN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONES 4278
AND 413 WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9AM TO 9PM.
BASED ON SOME OF THE TRENDS...THE HIGHEST COVERAGE COULD END UP
BEING CONFINED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER UNDER THE STRONGEST PART
OF THE SYSTEM. IF THAT ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...WE MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE RED FLAG TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. GUSTY WINDS OVER 30MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. MOST STORMS WILL BE DRY IN THE
BEGINNING BUT LATER IN THE DAY WE SHOULD SEE A MIX AND TRANSITIONING
TO MOSTLY WET BY EVENING. WHERE WE GET HEAVIER CELLS TO DEVELOP AND
WHERE WE GET MULTIPLE STORMS IN THE SAME LOCATION...AMOUNTS OF 0.20-
0.50 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER THAN THAT.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWER ON TUESDAY BUT STILL AROUND AS WE
WILL BE IN-BETWEEN STORMS. THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE NEXT LOW MOVES IN...BUT STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON WHERE THE HIGHER
COVERAGE AREAS WILL BE. ONE MODEL SUGGEST EVERYTHING WILL BE FROM
THE SNAKE PLAIN NORTH AND EAST...WHILE OTHERS SUGGEST ALL OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL GET HIT PRETTY GOOD BUT NOT MUCH IN THE PLAIN. WE
SHOULD HAVE THAT SORTED IN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR IDZ413-427.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 021943
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
143 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS ALREADY BREAKING INTO THE 90S
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUD BUILD UPS ALSO NOTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS
NORTH OF SUN VALLEY...A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO TELL IF ANY OF THOSE
WILL BE ABLE TO TURN INTO A THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN FOCUS IS ON SUB
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS NEVADA AND UTAH GRADUALLY MAKING A SWING
THIS WAY. TIMING MOSTLY FAVORS DAY TIME MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS IN THE
SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. THE NAM MODEL IN PARTICULARLY IS SUGGESTING
THE FLOW STRETCHES WEST AND EAST AS THE BAND MOVES UP TO IDAHO AND
FAVORS THE WETTER THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER THE BEAR LAKE AREA AND
CARIBOU HIGHLANDS. IN FACT THE GENERAL TREND SEEMS TO FAVOR THE BULK
OF THE ACTIVITY MOVING NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS ALL THE WAY
TO ISLAND PARK THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ALONG THE EAST SIDE THROUGH
THE CARIBOU HIGHLANDS AND BEAR LAKE AREA...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME .25 TO .5 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS FROM A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY DROP 10 TO 12 DEGREES MONDAY WITH ALL THE
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AROUND. TUESDAY WE HAVE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH EMBEDDED LITTLE DISTURBANCES TO TRIGGER SOME AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE COMES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCREASED. MODELS SO FAR
HAVE THURSDAY AS THE DRIEST DAY AND THAT COULD BE SHORT LIVED. THE
GFS IS VERY QUICK WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC ON
FRIDAY....WHILE OTHER MODELS ARE SLOWER AND FAVOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. RS

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WE ARE STILL WAITING TO
SEE IF WE GET ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS ESPECIALLY NEAR KSUN.  RIGHT
NOW...NOT MUCH IS HAPPENING OTHER THAN SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING
BETWEEN 12-15Z MONDAY. WE HAVE VCSH IN FOR KBYI AND KPIH DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME SHIFTING TO -SHRA VCTS OR -TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS
LIKE KIDA AND KSUN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z. EXPECT VFR
WEATHER ALTHOUGH WITH HEAVIER CELLS...WE COULD SEE A DROP IN
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS AS WELL WINDS OVER 30KTS. BY LATE IN THE
DAY...15-25KT WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND KBYI AS THE SYSTEM CLEARS TO
THE NORTHEAST. KEYES

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THE MAIN PUSH FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS STILL ON
TRACK FOR MONDAY AS THE STORM ITSELF MOVES OVER IDAHO. ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP IN EARNEST AROUND 15Z IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
SPREAD NORTH AFTER THAT. SCATTERED OR GREATER COVERAGE IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH LESS ACROSS THE SNAKE
PLAIN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONES 4278
AND 413 WILL BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9AM TO 9PM.
BASED ON SOME OF THE TRENDS...THE HIGHEST COVERAGE COULD END UP
BEING CONFINED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CORNER UNDER THE STRONGEST PART
OF THE SYSTEM. IF THAT ENDS UP BEING THE CASE...WE MAY NEED TO
ADJUST THE RED FLAG TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. GUSTY WINDS OVER 30MPH ARE
POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS. MOST STORMS WILL BE DRY IN THE
BEGINNING BUT LATER IN THE DAY WE SHOULD SEE A MIX AND TRANSITIONING
TO MOSTLY WET BY EVENING. WHERE WE GET HEAVIER CELLS TO DEVELOP AND
WHERE WE GET MULTIPLE STORMS IN THE SAME LOCATION...AMOUNTS OF 0.20-
0.50 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER THAN THAT.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOWER ON TUESDAY BUT STILL AROUND AS WE
WILL BE IN-BETWEEN STORMS. THERE WILL BE AN UPTICK ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE NEXT LOW MOVES IN...BUT STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON WHERE THE HIGHER
COVERAGE AREAS WILL BE. ONE MODEL SUGGEST EVERYTHING WILL BE FROM
THE SNAKE PLAIN NORTH AND EAST...WHILE OTHERS SUGGEST ALL OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL GET HIT PRETTY GOOD BUT NOT MUCH IN THE PLAIN. WE
SHOULD HAVE THAT SORTED IN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. KEYES

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR IDZ413-427.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 020933
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
333 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TODAY BRINGING
WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES. EXPECT VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING STARTS TO BREAK DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH. SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURES WILL START TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS
THE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ASSOCIATED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. CONTINUED TO TREND
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD BUT STAYED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MODEL
SUGGEST. LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAN TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRIER TREND
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING INCREASED
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH HAS SLOWED
ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION...AND THUS -TSRA IS LIMITED TO ISOLATED
AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KSUN...SO WILL HAVE VCTS ONLY THERE
FOR TODAY. ANY CIGS APPEAR TO HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE 03/12Z
ENDING PERIOD FOR THE NEW TAFS...EXCEPT FOR KBYI. SURFACE WIND
WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AS THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES
FARTHER EAST ON MON AFTERNOON AND THIS IS WHEN MORE SIGNIFICANT
WIND...ABOVE 15KT...COULD DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF -TSRA ACTIVITY.

MESSICK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTH-
NORTHWEST TRACK. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS MAY GENERATE SOME DRY THUNDERSTORM THERE.
EXPECT HIGH CLOUDINESS TO INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT BECOMES SCATTERED FOR MON...AND NOT JUST THE
AFTERNOON BUT ALL DAY MON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUE AND WED
BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO NO LONGER HAVE
AN INFLUENCE. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BE UP SHARPLY FOR MON AS THE
LOW PRESSURE IS BRINGING TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY START AS DRY ON MON...BUT WILL BECOME A MIXTURE OF WET
AND DRY BY MON AFTERNOON. WIND WILL NOT GET GUSTY UNTIL AFTER THE
MOISTURE CHANGE OCCURS...SO THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MON...THE ONLY
CONCERN IS WILL COVERAGE REACH THE 25 PERCENT MARK PRIOR TO
NOON...SO THE EARLIER PART OF THE WATCH MAY NOT BE PART OF ANY
WARNING ISSUED LATER TODAY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. THE
ONCOMING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO COORDINATE WITH LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES
ON CRITICAL FUEL AREAS AND ANY CHANGES...SO WILL LEAVE WATCH AS IS
FOR NOW.

MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR IDZ413-427.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 020933
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
333 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TODAY BRINGING
WELL ABOVE TEMPERATURES. EXPECT VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90S AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING STARTS TO BREAK DOWN THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH. SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURES WILL START TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS
THE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ASSOCIATED SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. CONTINUED TO TREND
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD BUT STAYED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MODEL
SUGGEST. LOOK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PARTICULARLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAN TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DRIER TREND
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING INCREASED
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

WYATT

&&

.AVIATION...UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH HAS SLOWED
ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESSION...AND THUS -TSRA IS LIMITED TO ISOLATED
AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KSUN...SO WILL HAVE VCTS ONLY THERE
FOR TODAY. ANY CIGS APPEAR TO HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE 03/12Z
ENDING PERIOD FOR THE NEW TAFS...EXCEPT FOR KBYI. SURFACE WIND
WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AS THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES
FARTHER EAST ON MON AFTERNOON AND THIS IS WHEN MORE SIGNIFICANT
WIND...ABOVE 15KT...COULD DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF -TSRA ACTIVITY.

MESSICK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE ITS NORTH-
NORTHWEST TRACK. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS MAY GENERATE SOME DRY THUNDERSTORM THERE.
EXPECT HIGH CLOUDINESS TO INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEN
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT BECOMES SCATTERED FOR MON...AND NOT JUST THE
AFTERNOON BUT ALL DAY MON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER TUE AND WED
BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO NO LONGER HAVE
AN INFLUENCE. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL BE UP SHARPLY FOR MON AS THE
LOW PRESSURE IS BRINGING TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY START AS DRY ON MON...BUT WILL BECOME A MIXTURE OF WET
AND DRY BY MON AFTERNOON. WIND WILL NOT GET GUSTY UNTIL AFTER THE
MOISTURE CHANGE OCCURS...SO THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MON...THE ONLY
CONCERN IS WILL COVERAGE REACH THE 25 PERCENT MARK PRIOR TO
NOON...SO THE EARLIER PART OF THE WATCH MAY NOT BE PART OF ANY
WARNING ISSUED LATER TODAY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. THE
ONCOMING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO COORDINATE WITH LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCIES
ON CRITICAL FUEL AREAS AND ANY CHANGES...SO WILL LEAVE WATCH AS IS
FOR NOW.

MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR IDZ413-427.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 011953
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
153 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO...LOOKING FOR VALLEY
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S IN MANY AREAS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON....SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY. MONDAY
SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AM
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC CROSSING THIS AREA. THIS
MORNINGS MODEL TOOK A SHARP TURN TOWARDS COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY. BESIDES NO CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME FINDING A CAUSE OTHER THAN SOME COOLER AIR SLIPPING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND CLOUD COVER. USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH LOWERED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS
MOS OUTPUT. MODLES ARE ALSO SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. GIVEN SUSPICIONS OF MODELS
THIS MORNING...DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. RS

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WEATHER CONTINUES ALTHOUGH A LITTLE MORE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN IDAHO. WE COULD A
STORM OR TWO NEAR KSUN TOMORROW BUT FOR NOW THAT ISN`T ACCOUNTED FOR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK INCREASE IN
MONSOON MOISTURE HEADING INTO MONDAY. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE SUNDAY...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. COVERAGE QUICKLY RAMPS UP SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED
COVERAGE OR BETTER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STORMS INITIALLY WILL BE A MIX OF WET
AND DRY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY WET LATER MONDAY.  DUE TO
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WE WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR ZONES 427 AND BELOW 5000FT IN ZONE 413. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS IN EITHER MODE. WE ARE LOOKING FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RIGHT
NOW...THOUGH THE TIMING ON THAT IS NOT VERY CERTAIN. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR IDZ413-427.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 011953
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
153 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO...LOOKING FOR VALLEY
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S IN MANY AREAS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON....SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY. MONDAY
SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AM
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC CROSSING THIS AREA. THIS
MORNINGS MODEL TOOK A SHARP TURN TOWARDS COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY. BESIDES NO CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME FINDING A CAUSE OTHER THAN SOME COOLER AIR SLIPPING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND CLOUD COVER. USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH LOWERED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS
MOS OUTPUT. MODLES ARE ALSO SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. GIVEN SUSPICIONS OF MODELS
THIS MORNING...DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. RS

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WEATHER CONTINUES ALTHOUGH A LITTLE MORE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN IDAHO. WE COULD A
STORM OR TWO NEAR KSUN TOMORROW BUT FOR NOW THAT ISN`T ACCOUNTED FOR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK INCREASE IN
MONSOON MOISTURE HEADING INTO MONDAY. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE SUNDAY...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. COVERAGE QUICKLY RAMPS UP SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED
COVERAGE OR BETTER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STORMS INITIALLY WILL BE A MIX OF WET
AND DRY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY WET LATER MONDAY.  DUE TO
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WE WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR ZONES 427 AND BELOW 5000FT IN ZONE 413. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS IN EITHER MODE. WE ARE LOOKING FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RIGHT
NOW...THOUGH THE TIMING ON THAT IS NOT VERY CERTAIN. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR IDZ413-427.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 011953
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
153 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO...LOOKING FOR VALLEY
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S IN MANY AREAS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON....SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY. MONDAY
SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AM
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC CROSSING THIS AREA. THIS
MORNINGS MODEL TOOK A SHARP TURN TOWARDS COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY. BESIDES NO CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME FINDING A CAUSE OTHER THAN SOME COOLER AIR SLIPPING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND CLOUD COVER. USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH LOWERED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS
MOS OUTPUT. MODLES ARE ALSO SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. GIVEN SUSPICIONS OF MODELS
THIS MORNING...DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. RS

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WEATHER CONTINUES ALTHOUGH A LITTLE MORE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN IDAHO. WE COULD A
STORM OR TWO NEAR KSUN TOMORROW BUT FOR NOW THAT ISN`T ACCOUNTED FOR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK INCREASE IN
MONSOON MOISTURE HEADING INTO MONDAY. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE SUNDAY...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. COVERAGE QUICKLY RAMPS UP SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED
COVERAGE OR BETTER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STORMS INITIALLY WILL BE A MIX OF WET
AND DRY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY WET LATER MONDAY.  DUE TO
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WE WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR ZONES 427 AND BELOW 5000FT IN ZONE 413. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS IN EITHER MODE. WE ARE LOOKING FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RIGHT
NOW...THOUGH THE TIMING ON THAT IS NOT VERY CERTAIN. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR IDZ413-427.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KPIH 011953
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
153 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO...LOOKING FOR VALLEY
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S IN MANY AREAS. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON....SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO BE DELAYED UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT EARLY MONDAY. MONDAY
SHOULD BE AN ACTIVE DAY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH AM
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE OFF THE PACIFIC CROSSING THIS AREA. THIS
MORNINGS MODEL TOOK A SHARP TURN TOWARDS COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY. BESIDES NO CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME FINDING A CAUSE OTHER THAN SOME COOLER AIR SLIPPING
IN FROM THE PACIFIC AND CLOUD COVER. USED A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE
WHICH LOWERED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES...BUT NOT AS COLD AS
MOS OUTPUT. MODLES ARE ALSO SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY. GIVEN SUSPICIONS OF MODELS
THIS MORNING...DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. RS

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WEATHER CONTINUES ALTHOUGH A LITTLE MORE MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN IDAHO. WE COULD A
STORM OR TWO NEAR KSUN TOMORROW BUT FOR NOW THAT ISN`T ACCOUNTED FOR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR A QUICK INCREASE IN
MONSOON MOISTURE HEADING INTO MONDAY. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE SUNDAY...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. COVERAGE QUICKLY RAMPS UP SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A STORM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED
COVERAGE OR BETTER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH A LITTLE LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE SNAKE PLAIN AND
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. STORMS INITIALLY WILL BE A MIX OF WET
AND DRY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY WET LATER MONDAY.  DUE TO
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WE WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR ZONES 427 AND BELOW 5000FT IN ZONE 413. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS IN EITHER MODE. WE ARE LOOKING FOR
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RIGHT
NOW...THOUGH THE TIMING ON THAT IS NOT VERY CERTAIN. KEYES
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR IDZ413-427.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 010933
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
333 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HEAT IS THE KEY WORD FOR THE
WEEKEND. IMPACTS INCLUDE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO UPPER 90S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS. SAFETY INFORMATION
HAS BEEN POSTED TO OUR WEBPAGE WEATHER STORY TO HELP HIGHLIGHT THE
CONCERNS ON THE WEEKEND WARMTH. MONSOON FLOW IS SLOWLY MOVING OUR
WAY FROM THE GREAT BASIN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.
EARLIEST IMPACT WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. WITH THE RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN AND INFLUX OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE OVER ALL THE AREA MONDAY AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND ONE INCH BY MONDAY
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST
STARTS TO MOVE INLAND LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A RENEWED CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE INTO THE 80S
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY THE COOLEST. OVERALL IMPACTS WILL
BE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING FOR ANY SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM. PRESTON


&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO
TODAY AND SUNDAY. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND
SUNDAY. KSUN MAY SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATER IN THE DAY
SUNDAY.  PRESTON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STAY IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HAINES INDEX THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ISOLATED...MOSTLY DRY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. CONSIDERING THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY
DEPENDING ON FUEL CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR CONTINUED AFTERNOON SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WYATT/PRESTON


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 311949
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
150 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHILE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
ROTATES NORTH AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WE MAY SEE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND STABLE. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE DIVIDE AS A SUB-TROPICAL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME ROTATE NORTH THROUGH NRN NEVADA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS SE IDAHO MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A
NOTABLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM CELLS. BY TUESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS BREAKING RANKS
WITH ITS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE LOW SHIFTING
EAST THROUGH CANADA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...SLOWLY DRIVES THE
LOW SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST RESULTING IN INCREASING
SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW VERY LITTLE
CONTINUITY THROUGH MID-WEEK AND THUS AM INCLINED TO MAINTAIN THE
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE MODELS SETTLE
ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO
TODAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PARTICULARLY TODAY. WYATT
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STAY IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HAINES INDEX THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ISOLATED...MOSTLY DRY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. CONSIDERING THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY
DEPENDING ON FUEL CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR CONTINUED AFTERNOON SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WYATT
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KPIH 311949
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
150 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS THE
DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WHILE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
ROTATES NORTH AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WE MAY SEE AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE CNTRL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND STABLE. HUSTON

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND SHIFT EAST OF THE DIVIDE AS A SUB-TROPICAL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME ROTATE NORTH THROUGH NRN NEVADA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS SE IDAHO MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A
NOTABLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM CELLS. BY TUESDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS BREAKING RANKS
WITH ITS PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IN SHOWING A PROGRESSIVE LOW SHIFTING
EAST THROUGH CANADA. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND...SLOWLY DRIVES THE
LOW SOUTH ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST RESULTING IN INCREASING
SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW VERY LITTLE
CONTINUITY THROUGH MID-WEEK AND THUS AM INCLINED TO MAINTAIN THE
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE MODELS SETTLE
ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION. HUSTON
&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO
TODAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PARTICULARLY TODAY. WYATT
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
STAY IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST IDAHO THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HAINES INDEX THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ISOLATED...MOSTLY DRY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY MONDAY OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. CONSIDERING THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH/RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY
DEPENDING ON FUEL CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR CONTINUED AFTERNOON SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WYATT
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




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